SORRY FOR BEING LATE/WAS AT DR. OFFICE//WILL CATCH UP ON THINGS TOMORROW

GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $10.30 TO $2645.80

SILVER PRICE UP $0.59 TO $31.02

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2643.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.03

Bitcoin morning price:$94,963 DOWN 1206 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,068 DOWN 500 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $10.90 TO $956.90

Palladium price; DOWN $8.10 TO $978.10

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3719.75 UP 15,00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2086.87 UP 2.25 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,514.52 UP 2.17 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)

DONATE

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END

EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,634.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/02/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/04/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

072 C GOLDMAN 11
099 H DB AG 76
104 C MIZUHO 5
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 4
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 547
132 C SG AMERICAS 15 44
190 H BMO CAPITAL 65
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 250
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 18
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 55
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 58
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 33
661 H JP MORGAN 65
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 61 40
686 H STONEX FINANCIA 70
690 C ABN AMRO 14 10
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 9
737 C ADVANTAGE 13 9
880 C CITIGROUP 20

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 12/02/2024 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 12/02/2024
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:26:38
880 H CITIGROUP 22
905 C ADM 3

---

TOTAL: 761 761

JPMorgan stopped 98/761

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 761 NOTICES FOR 76,100 OZ  2.335 TONNES

total notices so far: 15,577 contracts for 1,557,700 Oz (48.45 tonnes)

FOR  DEC

SILVER NOTICES: 153 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.765 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 6455 for 32.275 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $10.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.59 AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 472.924MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 333 CONTRACTS TO 132,565 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 717 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.19  IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON MONDAY COMEX TRADING  AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND THEY SUCCEEDED MONDAY WITH SILVER’S FALL OF 19 CENTS. 

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1050 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 637 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN TUESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 789 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY’S COMEX SESSION

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX AND THAT THAT CONTINUED ON MONDAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 637 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.19) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE 1050 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (NOV 29) THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE BY THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER BE DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! THERE WAS NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED MONDAY NIGHT (WHAT A RELIEF)

// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC AT 36.905 MILLION OZ + .66 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 37.565 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS ( MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION +//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 637 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 72 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAYS, total 1510 contracts:   OR 7.55 MILLION OZ  (705 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  7.55 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 7.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 333  CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.19 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1050 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  40.435 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.195 MILLION OZ EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON TO WHICH WE ADD .66 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL; 37.565 MILLION OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 37.565 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 717 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 637 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON MONDAY

/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT   (637) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

WE HAD 153 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.765 MILLION OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1618 OI CONTRACTS  TO 459,383 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A FAIR SIZED 290 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (1908 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $20.20 IN PRICE MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 55.169 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY MONDAY’S HUGE 501 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 50,100 OZ (1.558 TONNES OF GOLD). THIS TOTALS 53.309 TONNES AND FROM THAT WE MUST ADD SATURDAY’S ISSUANCE OF .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK//NEW STANDING 54.0866 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DEC: 54.0866 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $20.20 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6807 OI CONTRACTS (21.17 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 501 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP  AND .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK “DELIVERY” ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 5189 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 459,673

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6807 CONTRACTS  WITH 1618 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5189 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6807 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1336 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY. THEY SUCCEEDED  MONDAY WITH GOLD’S PRICE FALL

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5189 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1618 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6807 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.169 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 50,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW STANDING 54.0866 TONNES

//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 52.689 TONNES

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE  MONDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS AS WE HAD A STRONG  $20.20 PRICE LOSS . HOWEVER,WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1336 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///HUGE 501 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 50,100 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

DEC

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 9804 CONTRACTS OF 980,400 OZ OR 30.494 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4902 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  30.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  30.94 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.870% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 30.494 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 333 CONTRACTS OI  TO 132,565 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1050 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1050 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1050 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 261   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1050 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 717 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 3.945 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.19 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.82 PTS OR 0.44%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 196.03 PTS OR 1.00%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 736.84 OR 1.91%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.57%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2859 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2984// Oil UP TO 68.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.72 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1618 CONTRACTS TO 459,383 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $20.20 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS DESPITE HAVING A STRONG PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5189). THUS A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6807 CONTRACTS AND THEREFORE NO LOSS IN NET LONGS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE. WE LOST A HUGE NUMBER OF OI CONTRACTS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LAST WEEK AS WE HAD A HUGE TA.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY. HOWEVER MANY OF THE REMAINING LONGS REMAIN STICKY AS THEIR AIM IS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL GOLD NOT WORRYING TOO MUCH ON CONSTANT SELLING OF THESE CONTRACTS.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 201 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5189 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  5189 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5189 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6807 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5189 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1618 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS  STRONG GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $20.20 MONDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A NORMAL SIZED SIZED 1336 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   DEC (54.0866 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 53.309 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/NEW TOTAL 54.0866 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY   $20,20/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS EVEN THOUGH WE DID HAVE A HUGE LOSS IN PRICE WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE DID HAVE HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A NORMAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 21.17 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 50,100 OZ OR 1.558 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 54.0866 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 52.689 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $20.20

WE HAD 290 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6807 CONTRACTS OR 680,700 OZ (21.17 TONNES)

confirmed volume MONDAY 174,149 contracts: poor //// t.a.s. enhanced

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

DEC 3 

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	129,922.191 LOOMIS 4041 KILOBARS           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	63,730.376 OZ JPMORGAN 1974KILOBARS LOOMIS 2 KILOBARS TOTAL 1976 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today	751notice(s) 75100 OZ 2.335 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1582 contracts    158200 OZ 4.920 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	15,557 notices 1,557,700 oz 48.45 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits:  NIL oz

we have 2 customer deposits

i) Into JPMorgan: 63,466.074 oz 1974 kilobars

ii) Into Loomis: 64.30 oz 2 kilobars

total deposits 63,466.074 oz  1976 kilobars

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Loomis: 129,822.191 oz (4041) kilobars

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 129,822.191 oz 4041 kilobars

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.

For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 2373 contracts having LOST 1240 contracts. We had

1741 contracts served on MONDAY, so we GAINED a massive 501 contracts or 50,100 oz underwent a queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold.

JANUARY lost 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 2182

FEBRUARY GAINED 1024 CONTRACTS TO 356,671 .

We had 751 contracts filed for today representing 75,100 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 751 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 98 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,577 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC(2333 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (751 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,713,900 OZ  OR 53.309 TONNES. to which we add .7776 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total: 54.0866 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:  No of notices filed so far (15,577 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC  (2333 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (751 x 100 oz which equals  1,713,900 oz (51.913 TONNES)  + .776 tonnes of ex. for risk//new total 54.086 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 54.0866 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,753,711.090  oz 54.54 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,874.357.120 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,975,826.278/// 248.08 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,898,530.892 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,222,115 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 193.53 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 111.737 tonnes and thus 30.24% of entire inventory.

END

SILVER/COMEX

DEC 3. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE DEC 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	600,857.730 OZ Brinks .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil
No of oz served today (contracts)	153 CONTRACT(S)    (0.765 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	926 contracts  (4.63 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	6455 Contracts  (32.275 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  0 customer deposits

total customer deposits nil oz

We had 1 withdrawals

i) out of Brinks 600,857.730 oz

total withdrawal 600,857.730 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/306.719million  or 43.69%

adjustment 2

i)out of Brinks: a removal from eligible 654,587.270 oz

ii) out of CNT adjustment dealer to customer 2,893,050.428 oz

ii) ASAHI dealer to customer; 1,201,542.150 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.517MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.719 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 1079 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 885 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

846 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON MONDAY SO WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 39 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (.195 MILLION OZ) WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ASSESSED THAT THERE WAS NO PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE SO THEY HAVE TRIED THEIR LUCK ON TAKING DELIVERY IN LONDON.

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 10 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2420

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 18 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 23

MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 685 CONTRACTS UP TO 111,525

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 153 for 0.765 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 50,319- strong// t.a.s. enhanced

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6455x 5,000 oz = 32.275 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (1079) and the number of notices served upon today (153)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month:  6455 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(1079) minus number of notices served upon today (153)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 36.905 MILLION OZ. + to which we add .66 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR//new total 37.76

 New total standing: 37.565 million oz.

There are 79.410 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

DEC 5 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

 NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE

 NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES

NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES

NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES

NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES

NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES

NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES

NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES

NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES

NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE

NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES

NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES

OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES

OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES

OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES

OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES

OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

 OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 875.96 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

DEC 5 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ

NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ

NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ

NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ

NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ 

NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ

NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ

NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ

NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

NOV 4  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ

NOV 1  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ

OCT 31  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ

OCT 30  WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 29  WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 28  WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ

OCT 25  WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ

OCT 24  WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ

OCT 23  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ

 OCT 22  WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ

OCT 18  WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 17  WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 16  WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15  WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11  WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9  WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

 OCT 7  WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 472.924 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

Silver’s prospects discussed by GoldSeek Radio’s Waltzek and GATA Chairman Murphy

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-12-02 15:26 Section: Daily Dispatches

3:25p ET Monday, December 2, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek today discusses silver’s prospects with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, who says JPMorganChase is still working to prevent the white metal from catching up to gold.

The interview is 8 1/2 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/goldseek-radio-nugget-bill-murphy-bad-guys-are-getting-out

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 201 ANDREW MAGUIRE

LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 201

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: DIAMONDS

De Beers Pulls “Last Resort” Price Cut As Diamond Price-Floor Crumbles 

Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 08:30 PM

A new report says the collapse in rough diamond prices has prompted the world’s largest producer to implement broad price cuts. 

Bloomberg reports that De Beers’ final sale of rough diamond stones on the secondary market was led by a 10% to 15% price cut amid a slumping market pressured by the proliferation of artificial diamonds and sliding demand across the West and China. 

Yet on Monday, the company capitulated on that position at its final sale of the year. De Beers cut prices by 10% to 15% for most of the goods it sells, according to people familiar with the situation. That’s the first major price cut since the start of the year and a historically large reduction.-BBG

Price cuts at Anglo American’s De Beers come as the Diamond Standard Index, which dates back to early 2022, has plunged to record low levels. 

Here’s more from the report:

De Beers wields considerable power in the rough-diamond market. It holds 10 sales each year in which the buyers — known as sightholders — generally have to accept the price and the quantities offered.

Still, even after the steep cut in prices today, the company’s stones are still more expensive than the going rate in the secondary market, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. The company also removed some of the flexibility it had offered at previous sales.

De Beers typically reserves aggressive price cuts as a last resort. While it keeps pricing secret, the across-the-board cut this month is hefty.

So much for the diamond giant putting a floor under prices… 

Take a look at our prior note titled “Diamond Prices Crash To Multi-Decade Lows As Art, Wine, & Rolex Markets Sour.” 

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.82 PTS OR 0.44%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 196.03 PTS OR 1.00%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 736.84 OR 1.91%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.57%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2859 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2984// Oil UP TO 68.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.72 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2859

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2984

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 14.82 PTS OR 0.44%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 196.03 PTS OR 1.00%

2. Nikkei closed UP 735.84 PTS OR 1.91%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  106.32 EURO RISES TO 1.0515 UP 14 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.067 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.74…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.0625 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.252 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.7650

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 2.914

3j Gold at $2640.25 /Silver at: 30.83  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 00/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 105.51

3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and  72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.74  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.067% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8854 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9310  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.210 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.391 UP 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.184 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.76…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2650 UP 1 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.122 UP 4 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.986 UP 0 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Gain, S&P On Pace For 55th Record Closing High Of 2024

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 08:24 AM

US equity futures are flat as the yield curve sees slight steepening; for once, the US is not benefiting from the risk-on rally seen in EU/APAC. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the green reversing earlier losses as traders await a busy line-up of Fed speakers and data releases after the index notched its 54th closing high of the year on Monday; Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.1% even though Mag7 names are mostly higher in the premarket and Semis are bid. The USD is lower as the commodity complex catches a bid; WTI, silver, and sugar the outperformers; earlier Bloomberg reported China moved to restrict exports of rare earth metals to the US used in high-tech/military applications (gallium, germanium, antimony, and other superhard materials). Today’s macro focus will be on JOLTS and Vehicle Sales.

In premarket trading, Zscaler shares fall as much as 8.0% after the security software company gave a forecast for adjusted second-quarter earnings that missed expectations. Here are some other notable premarket movers

Anglogold Ashanti shares rise 3.7% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the mining company to outperform from sector perform.

• Credo Technology shares jump as much as 35% after the communications equipment company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations.
• CVS Health gains 1.5% after Deutsche Bank upgrades the pharmacy chain to buy from hold, saying both earnings and the stock’s multiple appear to be near trough levels.
• Janux Therapeutics shares soar 68% after the biotechnology firm announced positive updated interim clinical data for its oncology lead asset, JANX007.
• Joby Aviation shares fall as much as 2.3%% after the all-electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft startup said its CFO Matthew Field notified the company he’d be resigning effective Dec. 13 for personal reasons.
• Kroger shares advance 1% after Jefferies upgraded the retailer to buy from hold, and noted that the company has upside potential whether the acquisition of Albertsons goes through or not.
• Microchip Technology shares decline 1.3% after the chipmaker said it planned to shut down a plant in Arizona, known as Fab 2. Additionally, the company sees third-quarter revenue being close to the low end of its original guidance.
• TransMedics Group shares drop 8.0% after the medical-technology company narrowed its full-year revenue forecast. It also named a new chief financial officer.

The notable macro events this week include Friday’s payrolls report, which is expected to show hiring bounced back in November, preceded by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled participation in a moderated discussion on Wednesday. Swaps are pricing a more than 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting.

“The market still expects the Fed will cut rates,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We will see when the employment data comes through on Friday how brave you have to be. But I think the bias is still there and the market thinks there is still room to do that, given the overall picture.”

Elsewhere, Citi strategists said short sellers are capitulating as the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs and is set for its best year since 2021, while positioning on European stocks remains bearish, further widening the gap between the two markets. According to Citi’s Chris Montagu, investor positioning in S&P 500 futures is “completely one-sided,” and is “setting new highs for a fourth consecutive week and increasingly the hold-out shorts are capitulating.”

Indeed, appetite for US equities has shown no sign of abating this year. The S&P 500 has surged 27%, powered by technology shares and a broad preference for US assets. The rally extended after the election of Donald Trump raised hopes of tax cuts and deregulation. By contrast, positioning on Euro Stoxx 50 futures remains net bearish while ETF outflows are accelerating. Investors are shunning the region’s stocks amid sluggish economic and earnings growth and political instability in France and Germany.

Much attention right now remains focused on Paris, where the government faces a vote of no confidence on Wednesday. French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition to topple Michel Barnier’s administration.

And speaking of Europe, stocks there rose, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%, as a rally for technology stocks drove a fourth straight day of gains for the benchmark, helping investors look past political risks in France. French stocks traded in line with their European peers on Tuesday, but the crisis has weighed on the CAC 40, causing it to trail neighboring markets like Germany, where the DAX Index rose above 20,000 points for the first time in its history. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Hochtief shares rise as much as 5.9% after BofA upgraded its recommendation on the German infrastructure company to buy. The broker is positive about firms with US exposure going into 2025
• BMW shares gain as much as 2.5% after UBS upgraded the German carmaker to buy from neutral, citing prospects for improved cash returns. Analysts say the firm is now their top OEM pick
• SSP Group shares soar as much as 14% after the company, which runs food outlets in travel hubs, reported in-line annual results and said strong revenue growth has continued
• Ceres Power shares rise as much as 3.2% after RBC upgraded the firm to sector perform, saying the British fuel-cell technology company is more insulated from headwinds versus peers
• Greencore Group shares jump as much as 14% after the food company delivered a beat and raise, sweetened by the return of its dividend and a new share buyback
• DiscoverIE shares gain as much as 16%, the most in a year, after the electrical component maker reported 1H results, prompting Shore Capital to upgrade its rating to hold from sell
• Victrex shares jump as much as 17%, the most on record, after the specialty chemicals company reported results, with analysts noting decent trends in fiscal 4Q and reassuring comments about next year
• Covivio shares drop as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the French firm to underweight from equal-weight, saying it may “lag” the real estate sector in 2025
• Swiss Life shares fall as much as 4.2% after the insurer’s new targets were viewed as “challenging” by some analysts. JPMorgan says the payout ratio and cash remittances disappoint
• Forvia shares drop as much as 6.1% as UBS downgraded the French car parts firm to neutral and set a Street-low price target, citing record uncertainty around the outlook for Europe’s car industry
• Nel shares slide as much as 3.7% after RBC cut its recommendation to sector perform from outperform, citing slowing commercial activity with only two contracts announced this year
• Grenergy shares plunge as much as 6.3% after the Spanish renewable company reported 9-month results impacted by low energy prices and a higher debt level

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on course for a third-straight daily gain, as semiconductor-related shares rallied after the US announced fresh curbs on technology exports to China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.2%, with chip stocks TSMC and Tokyo Electron among the biggest boosts. Key benchmarks gained more than 1% in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan after the US unveiled measures to limit China’s access to crucial tech but stopped short of earlier proposals. Chinese stocks also reversed earlier losses after news that the country’s top leaders plan to start a key annual economic work conference next Wednesday to map out growth targets and stimulus plans for 2025.

In FX, a drop in the dollar gives relief to G-10 currencies, barring the yen, with a 0.3% decline to around 149.80/USD; the euro rises 0.3%, partly due to dollar weakness, while the CAC 40 climbs 0.6%.

In rates, treasuries are mixed in early US session with the curve steeper as long-end losses lift 30-year yields by ~2bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads to day’s wides. US front-end yields are slightly richer on the day, widening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1bp-2bp; 10-year yields around 4.21%, rising 2bps from Monday’s close, and outperforming bunds in the sector by 1.5bp, trails OATs outperforming by 2.5bp. In European bond markets, Germany’s is under pressure while France outperforms; French 10-year bonds are steady after a no-confidence vote was set for Wednesday, with the yield spread to comparable German debt hovering around 85 basis points. OAT-bund spread that widened the most in six months Monday is slightly narrower. German bonds underperform gilts and Treasuries across the curve, with yields rising most at the front end. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany.

In commodities, oil climbed ahead of an OPEC+ supply meeting on Thursday, with the market supported by hopes China’s leadership will approve more stimulus at a major meeting next week. WTI trades within Monday’s range, adding 0.9% to around $68.73. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $2,645/oz. Spot silver gains 1.6% near $31.

Looking at today’s US economic data calendar, we get the October JOLTS job openings at 10am. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (12:15pm), Kugler (12:35pm), Goolsbee (1:30pm, 3:45pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,062.75
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 516.11
• MXAP up 1.3% to 187.38
• MXAPJ up 1.2% to 586.44
• Nikkei up 1.9% to 39,248.86
• Topix up 1.4% to 2,753.58
• Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 19,746.32
• Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,378.81
• Sensex up 0.8% to 80,917.24
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,495.22
• Kospi up 1.9% to 2,500.10
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.07%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.0520
• Brent Futures up 1.0% to $72.58/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,645.15
• US Dollar Index down 0.18% to 106.26

Top Overnight News

• China imposed an outright ban on the export of crucial chipmaking materials — including gallium and germanium — to the US, citing concerns over military usage and “abuse” of export controls. It comes after the US imposed fresh curbs on the sale of high-bandwidth memory chips to China. BBG
• China’s Central Economic Work Conference, at which officials will discuss economic targets and stimulus plans for 2025, will commence on Wed 12/11. Mainland stocks rebounded, while the yuan slid to a one-year low despite fresh PBOC support. BBG
• China’s crude oil imports are on track to peak as soon as next year as transport fuel demand begins to decline for the world’s top crude buyer, ending the country’s decades-long run as the dominant driver of expanding oil consumption. RTRS
• Israel’s military said it “remains obligated” to a US-backed ceasefire after carrying out airstrikes in Lebanon yesterday in response to Hezbollah’s first attack under the truce. BBG
• French lawmakers will hold a no-confidence vote Wednesday, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition to topple the government. Prime Minister Michel Barnier used a constitutional mechanism on Monday to force through an unpopular budget, leading to a leftist coalition and Le Pen’s National Rally to call for votes of no confidence. BBG
• The Fed’s John Williams expects more rate cuts will probably be needed “over time,” though stopped short of saying whether he would back a reduction this month. BBG
• Donald Trump said he’ll block the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel, instead pledging to revive it with tariffs and tax incentives. Separately, the president-elect picked investment banker Warren Stephens to be US ambassador to the UK. BBG
• Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger’s exit may revive previously rejected deal options, including a split of the factory and product design businesses. BBG
• BlackRock has agreed to buy private credit manager HPS Investment Partners for ~$12B in stock (HPS has ~$150B in AUM). WSJ
• Fed’s Williams (voter) said he expects more rate cuts to happen over time and that monetary policy remains in a restrictive stance, while he added that what the Fed does with policy depends on incoming data and the outlook for the economy and policy remains ‘highly uncertain’. Furthermore, Williams expects US GDP at 2.5% this year but might be higher, as well as noted that they will need to bring interest rates down over time and it is unclear where the neutral rate is right now.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the fresh record highs seen in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. ASX 200 rose to a fresh record high with advances led higher by healthcare, tech and consumer discretionary. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 39,000 level with tech companies benefitting from further US export controls on China as restrictions related to advanced chips could spur a scramble for China to secure legacy-generation chip tools. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded indecisively after the US unveiled a new package of chip export controls against China.

Top Asian News

• China’s Semiconductor association say US chips are no longer “safe and reliable”. Relevant industries will have to be cautious about procuring these US chips.
• China’s Internet Society call on domestic companies to carefully consider the procurement of US chips and seek to expand cooperation with chipmakers from other countries. US chip export controls have caused substantial harm to stable development of China’s internet industry
• China’s MOFCOM bans to export of “dual-use items” relating to gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the US. Tighter end-user and end-use vetting for graphite dual-use items which are exported to the US. Effective Dec. 3rd. Export of dual-use items to US military users or for military reasons is prohibited.
• China is reportedly to hold the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11th-12th on 2025 economic growth targets and stimulus plans.

European bourses began the European session mostly in the positive territory, and sentiment continued to improve as the morning progressed, to display a sea of green in Europe. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a handful of industries in negative territory. The top of the pile is populated by Banks, Travel & Leisure and Tech. The latter is buoyed by gains in heavy-weight ASML (+2.1%) after the Co. noted that the impact of export restrictions will fall within its existing outlook and will not have a direct material impact on business in 2024. Real Estate is the laggard. US equity futures are essentially flat and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, and unable to benefit from the positive momentum seen across the pond. RBC S&P 500 outlook: raises Communication Services to Overweight from Marketweight; cuts Healthcare to Marketweight from Overweight; cuts Materials to Marketweight from Overweight. China’s Auto Industry Body says Tesla (TSLA) sold 78,856 China made vehicles in Nov. (82,000 Y/Y).

Top European News

• ECB’s Kazaks says a data-dependent and gradual approach are still appropriate, the pace and depth of easing will be determined by data and judgement.
• France to hold no-confidence vote on Wednesday, 4th December. Press report that the vote will take place at 15:00GMT.
• Barclaycard UK November Consumer Spending fell 0.5% Y/Y in November.

FX

• USD is softer vs. peers as markets digest comments from the influential Waller at the Fed who stated that he is leaning in favour of a cut for the December meeting. Ahead, JOLTS ahead of speak from Fed’s Daly, Kugler and Goolsbee (twice). DXY is holding above the 106 mark and within yesterday’s 105.78-106.73 range.
• EUR has been granted some reprieve vs. the USD. Albeit, it remains to be seen how long this will last given French political issues. The latest reports note that a no-confidence vote will take place at 15:00GMT on Wednesday. EUR/USD is back on a 1.05 handle and within yesterday’s 1.0460-1.0587 range.
• GBP is firmer vs. the broadly softer USD with UK-specific drivers on the light side. As such, it is likely that events stateside will continue to dictate the state-of-play for Cable which is currently sat within yesterday’s 1.2617-1.2742 range.
• Antipodeans are both near the top of the G10 leaderboard despite AUD facing some soft domestic data overnight and a softer CNY. The uptick in AUD/USD has led the pair back above the 0.65 mark. NZD/USD has been pivoting around the 0.59 mark.
• CHF is modestly softer vs. the EUR following the latest Swiss inflation metrics which saw the Y/Y rate print at 0.7% vs. exp. 0.8% (prev. 0.6%) and fall short of the SNB’s Q4 average expectation of 1.0%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1996 vs exp. 7.2702 (prev. 7.1865).

Fixed Income

• USTs are softer, weighed on by recent strong data which is lifting yields from the belly out. However, short-end debt is bid in the wake of Fed speak overnight with yields at the short-end pressured. Overnight, Waller said he is leaning towards a December cut, though noted one could argue the case for skipping and will be watching the data closely. USTs at the low-end of a 110-31+ to 111-06 band with the curve steeper.
• OAT-Bund yield spread is narrowing down to 85bps having peaked just shy of 89bps on Monday. The main update in today’s session has been the timing of the no-confidence vote on Barnier, which is provisionally set for 15:00GMT on Wednesday.
• Bunds are softer, with specifics somewhat light thus far and while ECB speak is in focus the likes of Cipollone haven’t added anything surprising. At the low-end of a 135.14-40 parameter, which is entirely within Monday’s 134.79-135.46 band. A fairly decent Schatz auction had little impact on Bund prices.
• Gilts were trading in-fitting with peers going into the region’s own auction, in what has been a catalyst thin session thus far, aside from BRC Retail Sales data, which was weak. The auction saw a strong cover though both the price and yield tails were elevated when compared to recent taps, sparking some very modest pressure.
• Germany sells EUR 3.607bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.0% 2026 Schatz Auction: b/c 2.3 (prev. 2.20x), average yield 1.94% (prev. 2.11%) & retention 19.84% (prev. 19.62%).
• UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt Auction: b/c 3.0x (prev. 3.08x), average yield 4.747% (prev. 4.735%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.3bps).

Commodities

• A slightly choppy morning for crude benchmarks but underlying action is firmly bullish with WTI & Brent at the top-end of parameters and within proximity to yesterday’s USD 69.11/bbl and USD 72.89/bbl best. Complex benefitting from both reports that OPEC is likely to extend its latest output cuts and tensions around the Lebanon ceasefire.
• Gold is trading at the top-end of a relatively narrow c. USD 15/oz range, peaked at USD 2650/oz overnight and while XAU remains firmer on the session it is yet to re-test the above high.
• Base metals traded lacklustre overnight, but did catch a slight bid in tandem with the broader risk tone and the softer Dollar. 3M LME Copper probing USD 9.1k to the upside, a marked rebound from Monday’s USD 8.91k trough.
• OPEC is likely to extend its latest oil output cuts until the end of Q1 2025 during its meeting on Thursday, according to OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters.
• Premiums for Russia’s espo blend reach 2yr record of USD 1.30-1.50/bbl to brent, according to Reuters sources.
• JPMorgan says Brent crude oil price is projected to average USD 80/bbl in 2024; says US Nat Gas 2025 price expected to average USD 3.50/MMBtu.
• JPMorgan expects gold to rise towards USD 3,000/oz in 2025 with an average price of USD 2,950/oz in Q4 2025; says catch up trade later in 2025 could push silver prices towards USD 38/oz whilst platinum rallies to USD 1200/oz. Sees copper price towards USD 10,400/MT by Q4’25 and average USD 11,000/MT in 2026. Sees aluminium prices towards USD 2850/MT over H2’25.

Geopolitics

• Israeli Defense Minister says if ceasefire collapses “we will no longer differentiate between Lebanon and Hezbollah”
• Israeli forces blew up residential buildings in the Al-Geneina neighbourhood, east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
• US Secretary of State Blinken met with Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and reiterated the importance of ending the Gaza war.
• Syrian Armed Opposition Operations Department said they took control of Halfaya, Maardis and Taiba al-Imam in the northern countryside of Hama, according to Al Jazeera.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00: Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 7.52m, prior 7.44m

Fed speakers

• 12:15: Fed’s Daly Is Interviewed Live on Fox Business
• 12:35: Fed’s Kugler Gives Speech on Labor Market, Policy
• 15:45: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Closing Remarks

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Zurich where the DB Outlook roadshows roll on. There were lots of questions yesterday about the latest French situation as it became apparent that a French government collapse was increasingly likely. The situation went back and forth as the day went on, but ultimately, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally announced that they would support a motion of no confidence in the government of PM Michel Barnier. So along with the left-wing parties who are also backing the no-confidence motion, they have a majority in the National Assembly capable of bringing the government down, and this has led to a pretty serious market reaction. In fact, the Franco-German 10yr spread (+7.5bps) hit its widest level since 2012 yesterday, which was just before Mario Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. And the euro itself weakened by -0.75% against the US Dollar, marking its biggest daily decline since the week of Trump’s victory in the US election.

In terms of how the situation evolved yesterday, the prospects for the French government had looked pretty weak from the get-go. Indeed, the National Rally’s President Jordan Bardella said on RTL radio that “The National Rally will activate the censure vote unless of course there is a last minute miracle”. But around lunchtime, it was confirmed by the government that there’d be no change to the medication reimbursement system. So that pointed to a potential compromise with the National Rally’s demands, and the spread began to tighten again as it looked as though the government might survive. However, shortly after, Barnier announced that he’d push through the budget using special constitutional powers without a vote. So that saw the announcement of a no-confidence motion, which Marine Le Pen said she’d back after their demands weren’t met.

In terms of what happens next, we’re in territory that hasn’t been seen in a long time, as the last successful no-confidence motion was in 1962. That vote is likely to take place this week, possibly as soon as Wednesday, and assuming it’s successful, that would force the government’s resignation. In the short term, the government can remain in office as a caretaker government. But snap elections can’t happen again until the summer, as the French Constitution requires a one-year wait until another dissolution can take place, meaning that isn’t an option. So President Macron would have to propose a new PM, which could in theory be Barnier again, but there’s no reason to think a new government would be any more stable, given how fractured the National Assembly is. In terms of passing a budget, lawmakers could approve a special law authorising the government to collect existing taxes, and after that the government could allocate public spending by decree. However, this would only permit public spending that was part of the 2024 budget, rather than additional expenditures.

The likelihood of an imminent government collapse immediately led to fresh losses among French assets. For instance, the 10yr Franco-German spread ended the day at 88.1bps, the widest since 2012. Indeed, it also meant that the French 10yr yield (2.918%) closed only just below the Greek 10yr yield (2.927%), which just goes to show how investors’ assessment of sovereign risk has shifted over the last decade. For equities, the CAC 40 did manage to eke out a +0.02% gain, but that made it the worst performer of the big European indices, well behind the STOXX 600 that posted a +0.66% advance. Banks were hit in particular, with fresh losses for Société Générale (-2.61%), BNP Paribas (-1.24%) and Crédit Agricole (-0.87%), which built on their declines of the last two weeks.

Unlike the Euro crisis, there were no obvious signs of broader contagion to other countries yesterday. In fact, the 10yr Italian yield (-1.0bps) actually fell to a two-year low of 3.266%, and Spain’s 10yr yield (-2.4bps) fell to 2.768%, its lowest level in almost two years as well. Moreover, the push into safe assets meant yields on 10yr bunds (-5.4bps) saw the biggest declines, falling to its lowest since January at 2.034%. In the UK, the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds hit its widest since Liz Truss was PM, closing at 221.5bps yesterday. Matters weren’t helped there after the final UK manufacturing PMI for November was revised down six-tenths from the flash reading to 48.0, which is the weakest it’s been since February. So it continues the recent run where UK data has kept underwhelming expectations.

Outside of Europe, markets actually put in a decent performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.24%) moving up to yet another record high. One supportive factor was an upside surprise in the ISM manufacturing for November, which came in at 48.4 (vs. 47.5 expected). So even though it was still in contractionary territory, it was the strongest since June, and the new orders subcomponent (50.4) was in expansionary territory for the first time since March. That’s lifted up other growth estimates as well, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q4 pointing to an annualised pace of +3.2%, which is its highest level to date.

That equity rally was led by further strength among big tech stocks, and the NASDAQ (+0.97%) and Magnificent 7 (+1.41%) moved up to record highs of their own. So it was a fairly narrow rally over the last 24 hours, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually saw a decent fall of -0.27%, moving off the all-time high it achieved last Friday.

In the meantime, US Treasury yields inched higher, with the 2yr yield up +2.9bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield rose +2.1bps to 4.19% (4.21% this morning). So that just about pushed the 2s10s curve back into inversion territory. The weakness on the 2yr might be pointing to a higher terminal rate, but investors yesterday priced in a greater chance of a rate cut this month. The chance of a cut closed at 76%, up 10pp from Friday, and the highest we have observed since US CPI data was released over 2 weeks ago. The uptick came after Fed Governor Waller spoke at the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) Monetary Conference in Washington, D.C. last night. He said that “I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting,” signaling further cuts ahead, while adding that “an additional cut at our next meeting will not dramatically change the stance of monetary policy and allow ample scope to later slow the pace of rate cuts, if needed.” On the path of inflation he noted, “I believe the evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren’t pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard.”

In Asia the Nikkei (+2.24%) is trading sharply higher and is leading gains in the region while the KOSPI (+1.75%) is also trading noticeably higher with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.75%) also trading in positive territory. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.08%) slight up but with the Shanghai Composite (-0.86%) turning sharply lower as I type. US equity futures are flat. seeing slight gains while the CSI (-0.02%) is struggling to gain traction in early trade.

In FX, the Chinese yuan (-0.25%) is weakening for the third consecutive day, trading at a one-year low of 7.2913 against the dollar despite PBOC’s efforts to support sentiment as the central bank has been setting stronger-than-expected fixes since November.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the ECB’s Cipollone and Panetta, along with the Fed’s Kugler and Goolsbee. Otherwise, US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for October.

2B) European report.

US yield curve steepens and Dollar is broadly softer ahead of JOLTS and Fed speak, OATs await Wednesday’s confidence vote – Newsquawk US Market Open

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 05:51 AM

• European bourses are entirely in the green; US futures are essentially flat ahead of US JOLTS and Fed speak.
• USD is broadly softer vs. peers, EUR/USD reclaims 1.05.
• US yield curve steepens ahead of JOLTS, OATs await Wednesday’s confidence vote
• Crude climbs higher, base metals benefit from the risk tone and softer USD.
• Looking ahead, US JOLTS, Speakers including Fed’s Goolsbee, Daly, Kugler.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses began the European session mostly in the positive territory, and sentiment continued to improve as the morning progressed, to display a sea of green in Europe.
• European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a handful of industries in negative territory. The top of the pile is populated by Banks, Travel & Leisure and Tech. The latter is buoyed by gains in heavy-weight ASML (+2.1%) after the Co. noted that the impact of export restrictions will fall within its existing outlook and will not have a direct material impact on business in 2024. Real Estate is the laggard.
• US equity futures are essentially flat and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, and unable to benefit from the positive momentum seen across the pond.
• RBC S&P 500 outlook: raises Communication Services to Overweight from Marketweight; cuts Healthcare to Marketweight from Overweight; cuts Materials to Marketweight from Overweight.
• China’s Auto Industry Body says Tesla (TSLA) sold 78,856 China made vehicles in Nov. (82,000 Y/Y).
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is softer vs. peers as markets digest comments from the influential Waller at the Fed who stated that he is leaning in favour of a cut for the December meeting. Ahead, JOLTS ahead of speak from Fed’s Daly, Kugler and Goolsbee (twice). DXY is holding above the 106 mark and within yesterday’s 105.78-106.73 range.
• EUR has been granted some reprieve vs. the USD. Albeit, it remains to be seen how long this will last given French political issues. The latest reports note that a no-confidence vote will take place at 15:00GMT on Wednesday. EUR/USD is back on a 1.05 handle and within yesterday’s 1.0460-1.0587 range.
• GBP is firmer vs. the broadly softer USD with UK-specific drivers on the light side. As such, it is likely that events stateside will continue to dictate the state-of-play for Cable which is currently sat within yesterday’s 1.2617-1.2742 range.
• Antipodeans are both near the top of the G10 leaderboard despite AUD facing some soft domestic data overnight and a softer CNY. The uptick in AUD/USD has led the pair back above the 0.65 mark. NZD/USD has been pivoting around the 0.59 mark.
• CHF is modestly softer vs. the EUR following the latest Swiss inflation metrics which saw the Y/Y rate print at 0.7% vs. exp. 0.8% (prev. 0.6%) and fall short of the SNB’s Q4 average expectation of 1.0%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1996 vs exp. 7.2702 (prev. 7.1865).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are softer, weighed on by recent strong data which is lifting yields from the belly out. However, short-end debt is bid in the wake of Fed speak overnight with yields at the short-end pressured. Overnight, Waller said he is leaning towards a December cut, though noted one could argue the case for skipping and will be watching the data closely. USTs at the low-end of a 110-31+ to 111-06 band with the curve steeper.
• OAT-Bund yield spread is narrowing down to 85bps having peaked just shy of 89bps on Monday. The main update in today’s session has been the timing of the no-confidence vote on Barnier, which is provisionally set for 15:00GMT on Wednesday.
• Bunds are softer, with specifics somewhat light thus far and while ECB speak is in focus the likes of Cipollone haven’t added anything surprising. At the low-end of a 135.14-40 parameter, which is entirely within Monday’s 134.79-135.46 band. A fairly decent Schatz auction had little impact on Bund prices.
• Gilts were trading in-fitting with peers going into the region’s own auction, in what has been a catalyst thin session thus far, aside from BRC Retail Sales data, which was weak. The auction saw a strong cover though both the price and yield tails were elevated when compared to recent taps, sparking some very modest pressure.
• Germany sells EUR 3.607bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.0% 2026 Schatz Auction: b/c 2.3 (prev. 2.20x), average yield 1.94% (prev. 2.11%) & retention 19.84% (prev. 19.62%).
• UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt Auction: b/c 3.0x (prev. 3.08x), average yield 4.747% (prev. 4.735%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• A slightly choppy morning for crude benchmarks but underlying action is firmly bullish with WTI & Brent at the top-end of parameters and within proximity to yesterday’s USD 69.11/bbl and USD 72.89/bbl best. Complex benefitting from both reports that OPEC is likely to extend its latest output cuts and tensions around the Lebanon ceasefire.
• Gold is trading at the top-end of a relatively narrow c. USD 15/oz range, peaked at USD 2650/oz overnight and while XAU remains firmer on the session it is yet to re-test the above high.
• Base metals traded lacklustre overnight, but did catch a slight bid in tandem with the broader risk tone and the softer Dollar. 3M LME Copper probing USD 9.1k to the upside, a marked rebound from Monday’s USD 8.91k trough.
• OPEC is likely to extend its latest oil output cuts until the end of Q1 2025 during its meeting on Thursday, according to OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters.
• Premiums for Russia’s espo blend reach 2yr record of USD 1.30-1.50/bbl to brent, according to Reuters sources.
• JPMorgan says Brent crude oil price is projected to average USD 80/bbl in 2024; says US Nat Gas 2025 price expected to average USD 3.50/MMBtu.
• JPMorgan expects gold to rise towards USD 3,000/oz in 2025 with an average price of USD 2,950/oz in Q4 2025; says catch up trade later in 2025 could push silver prices towards USD 38/oz whilst platinum rallies to USD 1200/oz. Sees copper price towards USD 10,400/MT by Q4’25 and average USD 11,000/MT in 2026. Sees aluminium prices towards USD 2850/MT over H2’25.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• Swiss CPI MM (Nov) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%); CPI YY (Nov) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%)
• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Nov) -3.4% (Prev. 0.3%); Total Sales YY -3.3% (Prev. 0.6%)
• UK ONS reweighting: The employment rate is revised up 0.1 percentage points to 74.6% in April to June 2024, meanwhile, the unemployment rate is largely unchanged at 4.2% and the economic inactivity rate is down 0.1 percentage points to 22.1%.. The new data also show that the overall employment level is now 313,000 above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels, rather than at a similar level as current data do.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB’s Kazaks says a data-dependent and gradual approach are still appropriate, the pace and depth of easing will be determined by data and judgement.
• France to hold no-confidence vote on Wednesday, 4th December. Press report that the vote will take place at 15:00GMT.
• Barclaycard UK November Consumer Spending fell 0.5% Y/Y in November.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed’s Williams (voter) said he expects more rate cuts to happen over time and that monetary policy remains in a restrictive stance, while he added that what the Fed does with policy depends on incoming data and the outlook for the economy and policy remains ‘highly uncertain’. Furthermore, Williams expects US GDP at 2.5% this year but might be higher, as well as noted that they will need to bring interest rates down over time and it is unclear where the neutral rate is right now.
• US President-elect Trump nominated Warren Stephens to be the US envoy to Britain. In other news, Trump said he is against US Steel (X) being bought by a foreign company, in this case, Japan’s Nippon Steel (5401 JT), while he added that through a series of tax incentives and tariffs, they will make US Steel strong and great again.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli Defense Minister says if ceasefire collapses “we will no longer differentiate between Lebanon and Hezbollah”
• Israeli forces blew up residential buildings in the Al-Geneina neighbourhood, east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
• US Secretary of State Blinken met with Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and reiterated the importance of ending the Gaza war.
• Syrian Armed Opposition Operations Department said they took control of Halfaya, Maardis and Taiba al-Imam in the northern countryside of Hama, according to Al Jazeera.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is incrementally lower and holds just above USD 95k; Ethereum remains flat and sits just ahead of the USD 3.6k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the fresh record highs seen in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
• ASX 200 rose to a fresh record high with advances led higher by healthcare, tech and consumer discretionary.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 39,000 level with tech companies benefitting from further US export controls on China as restrictions related to advanced chips could spur a scramble for China to secure legacy-generation chip tools.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded indecisively after the US unveiled a new package of chip export controls against China.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s Semiconductor association say US chips are no longer “safe and reliable”. Relevant industries will have to be cautious about procuring these US chips.
• China’s Internet Society call on domestic companies to carefully consider the procurement of US chips and seek to expand cooperation with chipmakers from other countries. US chip export controls have caused substantial harm to stable development of China’s internet industry
• China’s MOFCOM bans to export of “dual-use items” relating to gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the US. Tighter end-user and end-use vetting for graphite dual-use items which are exported to the US. Effective Dec. 3rd. Export of dual-use items to US military users or for military reasons is prohibited.
• China is reportedly to hold the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11th-12th on 2025 economic growth targets and stimulus plans.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JT) reports November UNIQLO sales +12.2% (prev. -7.5% Y/Y).

DATA RECAP

• Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q3) -14.1B vs. Exp. -10.0B (Prev. -10.7B)
• Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

APAC stocks mostly green as the region took impetus from the fresh record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 01:12 AM

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the fresh record highs in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
• Fed’s Waller said he leans toward supporting a cut in December, Bostic said December decision is not preordained.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% on Monday.
• DXY is net higher with the USD showing differing performances vs. peers, EUR/USD languishes below 1.05.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, US JOLTS, Fed’s Goolsbee, Kugler & ECB’s Cipollone, Supply from UK & Germany.

SNAPSHOT

)

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks ultimately traded mixed in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted fresh record highs but the Dow lagged and the small-cap Russell 2000 finished little changed, while the dollar was bid and treasuries flattened as markets reacted to Trump’s recent tariff threat against BRICS nations and following encouraging data including a ‘Goldilocks’ ISM Manufacturing PMI report.
• SPX +0.24% at 6,047, NDX +1.12% at 21,165, DJIA -0.29% at 44,782, RUT -0.02% at 2,434.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Waller (voter) said he leans toward supporting a cut in December but added that one could argue a case for skipping a rate cut in December and will be watching data closely to decide. Waller said the policy rate is restrictive enough that a December rate cut still allows ample scope to slow the pace of cuts later if needed and forecasts show inflation is to continue on a downward path to 2% over the medium term, while he will support holding rates steady in December if the data shows forecasts of slowing inflation are wrong. Furthermore, he said the direction of the policy rate over the medium term is clearly down, as well as noted that monetary policy remains ‘significantly restrictive’ and there is still ‘a ways to go’ in reducing the policy rate to neutral, while he expects rate cuts to continue over the next year with the speed and timing of rate cuts to be determined by economic conditions.
• Fed’s Williams (voter) said he expects more rate cuts to happen over time and that monetary policy remains in a restrictive stance, while he added that what the Fed does with policy depends on incoming data and the outlook for the economy and policy remains ‘highly uncertain’. Furthermore, Williams expects US GDP at 2.5% this year but might be higher, as well as noted that they will need to bring interest rates down over time and it is unclear where the neutral rate is right now.
• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said the base case is that inflation remains on track to reach 2%, while he is not going into the December meeting with a sense that the outcome is preordained and coming data will be important and keeping options open. Bostic added it is still an open question on how fast and by how much rates need to be cut to keep inflation declining while avoiding undue damage to the job market.
• US President-elect Trump nominated Warren Stephens to be the US envoy to Britain. In other news, Trump said he is against US Steel (X) being bought by a foreign company, in this case, Japan’s Nippon Steel (5401 JT), while he added that through a series of tax incentives and tariffs, they will make US Steel strong and great again.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the fresh record highs seen in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
• ASX 200 rose to a fresh record high with advances led higher by healthcare, tech and consumer discretionary.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 39,000 level with tech companies benefitting from further US export controls on China as restrictions related to advanced chips could spur a scramble for China to secure legacy-generation chip tools.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded indecisively after the US unveiled a new package of chip export controls against China.
• US equity futures were flat after the mixed performance on Wall St and with relatively light scheduled events for Tuesday.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% on Monday.

FX

• DXY extended on the prior day’s gains following Trump’s recent tariff threats against BRICS nations and data releases in which US Manufacturing PMI was revised upwards and ISM Manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations. There were also recent comments from Fed speakers including Bostic who stated he is not going into the December meeting with a sense that the outcome is preordained and is keeping his options open, while Waller said he leans towards supporting a rate cut in December, absent of any data shocks, which slightly pressured the dollar and saw money markets price in a greater chance of a 25bps cut at this month’s meeting. Furthermore, Fed’s Williams also said he expects more rate cuts to happen over time and noted that monetary policy remains in a restrictive stance.
• EUR/USD languished beneath the 1.0500 handle amid a possible collapse of French PM Barnier’s government and after disappointing PMI data, while the latest rhetoric from ECB officials continued to point to a cut this month which money markets are fully pricing in.
• GBP/USD was subdued after giving up ground to the firmer buck and with UK-specific catalysts light.
• USD/JPY reclaimed the 150.00 handle as outperformance in Japanese stocks dampened haven demand for the yen.
• Antipodeans remained contained following yesterday’s weakness with price action not helped by softer-than-expected Australian data and the pressure in the yuan in which USD/CNH breached the 7.3000 level to the upside.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1996 vs exp. 7.2702 (prev. 7.1865).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures lacked direction following recent price swings amid stronger-than-expected ISM data and dovish Fed rhetoric.
• Bund futures took a breather after climbing to above the 135.00 level and as participants look ahead to a 2-year Schatz auction.
• 10yr JGB futures recovered early losses but with upside limited as money markets lean towards a BoJ rate hike at this month’s meeting and following a slightly softer-than-previous 10yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures traded rangebound after the prior day’s choppy mood as headwinds from dollar strength overshadowed the recent data from China and the US, as well as the geopolitical tensions, while participants await Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting.
• OPEC is likely to extend its latest oil output cuts until the end of Q1 2025 during its meeting on Thursday, according to OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters.
• Iraq halted all operations at the Basra oil refinery due to overloaded fuel oil storage tanks, according to Reuters citing officials.
• Spot gold was little changed with the precious metal constrained after the dollar’s recent advances.
• Copper futures were lacklustre with prices constrained as sentiment in China lagged after the US unveiled a new package of chip export controls against China.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded indecisively in which prices oscillated around the USD 96,000 level throughout the session.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Dutch government said it will study the new US restrictions on the export of chip equipment to China and it shares US concerns over the uncontrolled export of advanced semiconductor equipment, while ASML (ASML NA) said it sees the impact of export restrictions to fall within its outlook.
• China is reportedly to hold the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11th-12th on 2025 economic growth targets and stimulus plans.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q3) -14.1B vs. Exp. -10.0B (Prev. -10.7B)
• Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Hezbollah firing at Har Dov is a serious violation of the Lebanon ceasefire and they will respond strongly, while the Israeli Defense Minister also said Israel will respond to Hezbollah fire with a tough response.
• Israeli military said it attacked dozens of Hezbollah targets but also stated that Israel remains obligated to fulfil the ceasefire.
• Israeli forces blew up residential buildings in the Al-Geneina neighbourhood, east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
• US Secretary of State Blinken met with Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and reiterated the importance of ending the Gaza war.
• US officials are concerned Lebanon ceasefire could unravel, according to Axios’ Ravid.
• US President-elect Trump warned there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East if Gaza hostages are not released prior to his January 20th inauguration.
• Syrian Armed Opposition Operations Department said they took control of Halfaya, Maardis and Taiba al-Imam in the northern countryside of Hama, according to Al Jazeera.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US State Department announced new military assistance for Ukraine worth USD 725mln.
• NATO chief Rutter warned US President-elect Trump of a ‘dire threat’ to the US if Ukraine is pushed into a bad peace deal, according to FT.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Barclaycard UK November Consumer Spending fell 0.5% Y/Y in November.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Nov) -3.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
• UK BRC Total Sales YY (Nov) -3.3% (Prev. 0.6%)

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

South Korea Declares Emergency Martial Law

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 08:47 AM

Moments ago, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law, accusing the opposition party of engaging in anti-state activities. This is not a headline you see every day.

Here are the headlines via AFP News:

• SOUTH KOREA’S YOON SAYS GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN PARALYZED BECAUSE OF OPPOSITION PARTY CONDUCTS
• SOUTH KOREA’S YOON SAYS THROUGH MARTIAL LAW HE WILL REBUILD FREE AND DEMOCRATIC COUNTRY

AP News sheds more color on the situation: 

President Yoon Suk Yeol made the announcement during a televised briefing, vowing to “eradicate pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional democratic order.” It wasn’t immediately clear how the steps would affect the country’s governance and democracy.

Yoon — whose approval rating has dipped in recent months — has struggled to push his agenda against an opposition-controlled parliament since taking office in 2022.

Yoon’s conservative People Power Party had been locked in an impasse with the liberal opposition Democratic Party over next year’s budget bill. He has also been dismissing calls for independent investigations into scandals involving his wife and top officials, drawing quick, strong rebukes from his political rivals.

All of this is unfolding as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating continues to slide… 

More saber rattling from President Yoon Suk Yeol, as per the Philippines news outlet Rappler:

“Yoon said he had no choice but to resort to such a measure in order to safeguard free and constitutional order, saying opposition parties have taken hostage of the parliamentary process to throw the country into a crisis.

“I declare martial law to protect the free Republic of Korea from the threat of North Korean communist forces, to eradicate the despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces that are plundering the freedom and happiness of our people, and to protect the free constitutional order,” Yoon said.

South Korean news agency Yonhap News Agency said, “The [South Korean] defense minister has ordered a meeting of key commanders and called for tightened vigilance…after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law. The minister has also ordered the military to stay on emergency guard”

Police buses have blocked the National Assembly. 

Ruling People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon criticized President Yoon Suk Yeol’s emergency martial law, calling the decision “wrong,” adding that he plans to stop the president’s emergency action “alongside the people.”

For some context, the Korean newspaper Chosun Daily pointed out, “Martial law has been declared 16 times since the Republic of Korea’s establishment, including 12 instances of emergency martial law.” 

In a recent Korea Times op-ed, Chun In-bum, a retired ROK Lieutenant General, stated: 

Recent comments and accusations suggesting that the Yoon Suk Yeol administration may be creating a situation to declare martial law have reignited interest in the topic within South Korea.

…

Martial law is divided into two types:

• emergency martial law, and
• security martial law.

Emergency martial law grants the government sweeping powers, such as suspending the warrant system, restricting freedom of the press, curbing publication rights and limiting assembly and association, as well as overriding the authority of civilian courts and government agencies. When martial law is declared, the president must notify the National Assembly immediately. If the National Assembly demands its termination by a majority vote, the president is legally obligated to comply. While the National Assembly retains legislative authority, there are exceptional circumstances under which a military regime can temporarily assume control, particularly in the event of a coup that disrupts the normal constitutional order.

Martial law has a troubled history in South Korea. It was first declared on Oct. 21, 1948, in response to the Yeosu-Suncheon Incident, a rebellion by South Korean soldiers who refused to suppress a left-wing uprising. Since then, it has been used by various regimes as a mechanism to maintain power, often at the expense of civil liberties. One of the most infamous instances occurred in 1979, following the assassination of President Park Chung-hee. Martial law was declared nationwide, leading to the suppression of pro-democracy movements and widespread human rights abuses.

These historical abuses of martial law have left a deep imprint on South Korean society, creating a strong public aversion to any suggestion of its reimplementation. The memories of authoritarian rule, censorship and political persecution are still fresh for many citizens, particularly for those who lived through the turbulent decades of the 1960s to 1980s. The last declaration of martial law, in 1979, marked a period of intense social and political repression and the eventual rise of a democratic movement that culminated in the democratic reforms of the late 1980s.

In markets, South Korea’s won dropped 1% to a two-year low of 1419.28 versus the dollar. 

Ishares Msci South Korea ETF (EWY) falls 2.5% in premarket trading. 

Commenting on EWY trading, Goldman’s Chris Lucas told clients that “block sellers were active in South Korea (EWY) – notable headlines regarding South Korea this morning.”

Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd said the turmoil in South Korea “should be limited as crisis is domestic…” 

Here’s more from Boyd: 

None of this need impact US stocks or US risk appetite, except insofar as holders of South Korean assets seek safe havens amid the evident rise in political risk there. It’s natural that bonds should gain as Korean traders buy Treasuries, but there’s no apparent need for traders elsewhere to do so — other than front-running that demand.

*Developing…

END

THEN:

South Korea Ends Shortest Martial Law In History

Update (1115ET): 

After the South Korean parliament rejected the short-lived martial law declared by President Yoon Suk Yeol, protests erupted in the streets of Seoul outside government buildings.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1863994165882650919

https://twitter.com/i/status/1863996640539136306

Update (1115ET): 

Well, that was exciting—some midnight political infighting in South Korea. As we noted earlier: “There is no actual emergency.” 

Now, the shortest emergency martial law in history appears to be over: 

• S. KOREA LAWMAKERS TO VOTE ON MARTIAL LAW LIFT

Followed by:

• S. KOREA PARLIAMENT PASSES REQUEST OF MARTIAL LAW LIFT
• SOUTH KOREAN PARLIAMENT VOTES TO BLOCK PRESIDENT’S MARTIAL LAW DECLARATION

END

3C JAPAN

ROBERT H

I do not like what I see here:

US deploys F-35 fighters to Japan’s closest point to Russia

As you read this about two things.

One the increased Russian military budget and two; the Factories in North Korea and China spitting out new ballistic missiles designed to fly at hypersonic speeds. It is when it is acknowledged that China/North Korea and Russia have shared technology in certain missile systems as part of a mutual defense pact that such bases are redundant. Russia needs more manufacturing locations while North Korea and China eagerly wanted technology that neither had for defense with hypersonic shorter range missiles. Hazelnut was a demonstration not just for the West but other parties as well.

This particular base has already been put in the cross hairs by Russia and no doubt will be designed its own special Hazelnut. As it is the S400 systems are already in place on certain islands. And the S500 batteries are already in Vladivostok. And one should remember that there is NO peace agreement in force between Russia and Japan. And if Japan falls the whole Western world will fall in finance ( explanation too long ). Think Carry Trade.

War will come and when it does it will not be like the West perceived. Because if it comes to this the West in particular the US will be reduced to a continental power and all mirages of a blue sea reach or cross ocean reach will be gone. Europe is already finished. The only thing that remains is how painful the death of NATO becomes in casting Europe into a new existence.

Already trade and technology are charting new directions of future economic growth and prosperity not within the current cast of thought by politicos clinging to their political agenda. America needs to recast itself quickly to rethink and reimagine its real place in a changed world because to chase yesterday is to lose tomorrow. And there are pieces on the board of hegemony no longer needed and thus expendable to move forward.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/02/us-deploys-f-35-fighters-to-japans-closest-point-to-russia/

end

3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC

China/

Two more damaged under the sea cables discovered. Just China trying to slow down entry into World War iii

(zerohedge)

Telecoms Cable Between Sweden & Finland Damaged In Two Separate Places 

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 07:45 AM

A land-based fiber-optics cable running across the border between Sweden and Finland was damaged in two separate locations on Monday. This incident comes weeks after EU investigators probed a Chinese-flagged vessel suspected of sabotaging undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. 

Internet provider Global Connect told AP News that the telecommunications cable was severed in two places in southern Finland. 

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1863889032700174642

“The first damage has been repaired, and internet access has been mostly restored,” said Global Connect’s spokesman in Sweden, Niklas Ekström, adding that thousands of customers were briefly knocked offline. 

Ekström said, “We are still working on fixing the second damage.”

He noted that the first incident was related to construction work but provided no further details about what caused the second incident, stating: “We have no analysis on this so far.”

“The authorities are investigating the matter together with the company. We take the situation seriously,” Finland’s minister of transportation and communications, Lulu Ranne, wrote on X.

Euronews said, “Swedish media reported that Finnish police suspect a criminal offence in connection to the damaged cable.”

The incident comes weeks after two undersea fiber optic cables connecting Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Lithuania across the Baltic Sea were severed by what EU investigators believe was an act of sabotage by a 225-meter Chinese bulk carrier. NATO warships have since surrounded the vessel.

With wars ongoing in Eastern Europe and parts of the Middle East, spillover risks remain elevated, as terror groups, rogue nations, and or just plain bad actors may be intensifying sabotage efforts targeting infrastructure. 

end

CHINA/USA

Warning Shot: China Bans Exports Of Gallium, Germanium To US As Tit-For-Tat Chip War Escalates

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 12:25 PM

The Biden administration’s new restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry have triggered a tit-for-tat response from Beijing, which announced an export ban on gallium, germanium, antimony, and other critical minerals with potential military applications to the US. 

Bloomberg reports that the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced the new export controls on Tuesday morning, adding that tighter controls on graphite sales will also be seen. 

“The US has generalized the concept of national security, and politicized and weaponized economic, trade and tech issues,” a ministry spokesperson said, adding, “It has abused export control measures and unreasonably restricted certain products’ export to China.”

On Monday, the Biden admin revealed broader restrictions on AI chips that can be delivered to China, including prohibiting the sale of advanced chips to more than 100 Chinese companies.  

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told reporters Sunday that the move represented “the strongest controls ever enacted by the US to degrade the PRC’s ability to make the most advanced chips that they’re using in their military modernization,” adding US officials had worked closely with experts, industry and allied countries to ensure that “our actions protect national security while minimizing unintended commercial consequences.”

China’s dominance in the global mining and processing of rare earth materials is very alarming, as it produces 94% of the world’s gallium and 83% of germanium—critical metals used in the production of semiconductors, LEDs, and transistors. Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce has justified the export restrictions to protect national security amid the ongoing tech war.

Joe Mazur, a senior analyst with the consulting firm Trivium China, told Bloomberg that these “export bans on critical minerals have been in the hopper for some time and are intended as a warning.” 

“It’s a clear signal that China is preparing to strike back more forcefully against US economic pressure than it has in the past few years,” Mazur emphasized. 

Data from the US Geological Survey shows that the US imports about half its supply of gallium and germanium metals from China. 

The new restrictions serve as a calculated warning to America’s military-industrial complex and chipmakers, signaling that Beijing could escalate its response if Washington’s tit-for-tat tech war intensifies. And just wait for more fireworks with Trump entering the White House next month.

Meanwhile, there could be new high-grade gallium supplies hiding in southwest Montana. 

The US must build out its domestic supply chain of mining and refining rare earth minerals to break the addiction from China—something that won’t be happening for a while. 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

ROBERT H

Poland

Norway’s bold move: F-35 fighters and air defenses head to Poland

Another classical error.
Already designated its’ own Hazelnut.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/02/norways-bold-move-f-35-fighters-and-air-defenses-head-to-poland/

END

FRANCE/

UK

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

END

ISRAEL// HAMAS/opinion

(JERUSALEM POST)

Why hasn’t Hamas faced repercussions for killing American citizens? – analysis

Despite global backlash, Hamas has faced few impacts since October 7, instead gaining support in some regions.

By SETH J. FRANTZMANDECEMBER 2, 2024 16:05Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2024 22:48

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-831629&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241202_3a3eb9b4e8a29fc6508faee24f70e95f7e081fba&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Authorities on Monday said they concluded that Capt. Omer Neutra, 21, was killed on October 7, 2023, and his body was taken by Hamas to Gaza.

Omer’s parents, Ronen and Orna Neutra, spoke at the Republican National Convention in mid-July, pushing for his release and a deal. This didn’t change Hamas’s decision to keep holding their son’s body.

In fact, Hamas could have saved them the worry and agony of a year of waiting for information by releasing the body in October 2023. Hamas felt no incentive to do so because it assumed it could kill as many Americans and Israelis as it wanted and get away with it.

Hamas also murdered US-Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, whose parents spoke at the Democratic National Convention in August. Hamas would have seen the speech and concluded it could kill him anyway and face no consequences. Why did Hamas assume this? Because it had already carried out the October 7 attack and its leaders were living in the Qatari capital, Doha at the time.

QATAR IS a major non-NATO ally of the US. Hamas leaders didn’t face any consequences on October 7 in Qatar, or any of the days after. They felt they had a blank check to massacre and murder as many people as they wanted. They murdered young people at the Supernova music festival and saw how activists in the US and the West rushed to back Hamas and call for more “flood” operations.

Activists on campuses painted posters showing Hamas members using paragliders to attack civilians. Activists attacked a Nova festival documentary in New York City. Activists tore down photos of the hostages.

Hamas doesn’t feel it faces any pressure from the Biden administration and doesn’t appear to be worried that things will change with the incoming Trump administration. The group assumes it can kill and kidnap Americans and nothing will happen.

This is because of Hamas’s support from US allies in Doha and Ankara. It is rare that a group that kills Americans is hosted by American allies; Hamas is one of the historic exceptions to that rule. It knows this and feels complete security in continuing its behavior.

Hamas potentially has more support abroad

This is not to say Hamas has not suffered losses; Israel killed thousands of Hamas members and assassinated numerous leaders. However, Hamas has also faced losses in the past during the Second Intifada; losing leaders is not new. It assumes that it can hold on for another year or two and that Israel will eventually leave Gaza.

Hamas doesn’t appear to believe that holding live hostages makes much impact. It is willing to let them die or hold corpses. Hamas may now believe that Israel signed a deal similar to the ceasefire in Lebanon.

---

---

Hezbollah didn’t hold any hostages and got a deal after two months. Hamas may assume that holding the hostages alive actually prolongs the war and that without live hostages in Gaza, Israel will withdraw faster.

HAMAS LEARNED, through the October 7 attack, that murdering and killing citizens of numerous countries hasn’t had any real negative effect on Hamas. It isn’t more isolated today than on October 6, 2023. In fact, it has the same support abroad, probably more support, than on that day.

Hamas knows it has more support on campuses in the US today than two years ago, along with support from the Global South. Its willingness to kill so many people has appeared to make it get more respect from Russia and China. This means Hamas does not assess today that it has lost out due to the attack.

It hasn’t been replaced as a governing authority in Gaza. It still controls parts of Gaza City and the central camps area in Gaza. This includes Deir al-Balah, Bureij, Maghazi and Nuseirat. Hamas assumes that the IDF is exhausted from more than a year of war and that Israel wants to let reservists go home after the battles in Lebanon.

There remain key questions related to the new information about the death of Neutra. He was a member of a tank crew on the border of Gaza on October 7. Why didn’t the US ask Doha if he was alive after the attack? Why wasn’t more done to confirm the details and status regarding the Americans held in Gaza? The fact that Hamas seems to have faced no queries from Doha about the status of Americans held in Gaza is concerning.

This is a reminder of several incidents over the past year that also raise questions. On October 20, 2023, Hamas released two American women who it had held hostage for two weeks. Nothing more was heard about this story or why it happened how and when it did. Clearly, Hamas had decided to release two Americans. Why not the others? Why not more discussions about their status at the time? Days later Hamas released two elderly women as well. Nothing more was ever revealed about these two hostage releases in October.

This begs the question of why the Bibas children were not released at that time. They were the most vulnerable of the hostages because one was a baby and one a toddler. There are a lot of questions now about why more wasn’t done to pressure Hamas for basic details on the hostages.

In January, reports circulated that Qatar and France had brokered a deal to deliver medical aid to 45 hostages in Gaza. Nothing was done to confirm whether the aid reached the hostages.

Why? Why is it that systematically since October 7 there has been a kind of collective shrug about basic details about the hostages, details that would have helped families who have been waiting for information?

No pressure from the US, no pressure from Doha, and it’s not clear if there is pressure from Israel. Since the decision to shift focus from Gaza to fighting Hezbollah, Hamas has felt free rein to run central Gaza and continue its rule. 

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

Monday night (times of Israel)

the ceasefire is very fragile as Hezbollah operatives trying re enter Southern Lebanon

(Times of Israel)

IDF launches wave of strikes in Lebanon after Hezbollah mortar attack

Terror group says first fire since truce is an ‘initial warning’ against Israel over ‘continued violation of Lebanese airspace’; US says ceasefire holding despite incidents

By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Lazar Berman, Follow
Jacob Magid Follow
and ToI Staff2 December 2024, 8:51 pmUpdated at 12:14 am

IDF troops patrol along the Israeli-Lebanon border in northern Israel, December 2, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)

The Israeli military launched a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon on Monday evening after Hezbollah launched two mortars at the Mount Dov area for the first time since the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group took effect last week.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces said fighter jets struck Hezbollah operatives and dozens of rocket launchers and facilities belonging to the terror group across Lebanon.

Hezbollah claimed earlier on Monday that it launched the mortars in response to Israel’s “repeated violations” of the ceasefire deal that took effect last week, and said that it should serve as an “initial warning” over IDF strikes on Lebanon during the truce and the “continued violation of Lebanese airspace by hostile Israeli aircraft.”

The incident — the first fire from Lebanon since the start of the truce — came after the US and France both reportedly warned that Israel was violating parts of the deal, a charge Israel has denied.

The IDF said that the projectiles landed in open areas and did not cause any injuries.

Senior Israeli officials were quick to condemn the Hezbollah attack, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing a firm response.

This picture taken from northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon shows smoke billowing above the Lebanese village of Khiam during Israeli bombardment, on December 2, 2024. (Jalaa MAREY / AFP)

“Hezbollah’s firing at Mount Dov constitutes a serious violation of the ceasefire, and Israel will respond forcefully,” he said in a statement. “We are determined to continue to enforce the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — a minor one will be treated like a major one.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz also warned of a “harsh response,” writing on X that Israel “promised to act against any violation of the ceasefire by Hezbollah, and that is exactly what we will do.”

In addition to the Hezbollah operatives, rocket launchers, and facilities targeted by fighter jets, the IDF said it struck the launcher used to fire the two mortars at Mount Dov. The site was hit a short while after the attack, according to the army.

“Hezbollah’s launches tonight constitute a violation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon,” the IDF said in a statement.

A loaded Hezbollah multiple rocket launcher found by troops of the 769th Brigade in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo issued on November 9, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

“The State of Israel demands that the relevant parties in Lebanon fulfill their responsibilities and prevent Hezbollah’s hostile activity from within Lebanese territory. The State of Israel remains obligated to the fulfillment of the conditions of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon,” the army added.

Lebanon’s health ministry later said at least nine people were killed in Israeli strikes on two southern villages.

“The Israeli enemy strike on the village of Haris killed five people and injured two, in an initial toll,” the ministry said in a statement, adding that another such attack on Tallousa “killed four people and injured one person.”

Syria’s Sham FM radio, meanwhile, reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes on Monday night targeted border crossings between Lebanon and Syria in the al-Qusayr area.

The IDF had bombed the crossings before, saying that they were being used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon.

Illustrative: A picture taken from Lebanon shows Syrian officials inspecting the damage on the Syrian side of the Dabussiyeh border crossing after an Israeli airstrike on November 27, 2024. (Fathi AL-MASRI / AFP)

During a visit to southern Lebanon earlier in the day, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi vowed the military will “attack strongly in the face of Hezbollah’s grave violations, and we will continue to do so.”

“We have plans and goals ready to be activated at any moment,” he added.

Despite the incidents on Monday, US officials said that the ceasefire was still holding.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged that there have been “some sporadic strikes” over the last several days, but claims “this was expected” and is still a major decrease from the hundreds of Hezbollah rocket attacks and Israeli counter-strikes that were taking place before the ceasefire came into place.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi (center) tours southern Lebanon, December 2, 2023. (Israel Defense Forces)

Kirby noted that the ceasefire included the beefing up of an enforcement mechanism that has already begun responding to events on the ground. The mechanism now includes a US Army general who has been dispatched to the US embassy in Beirut and will work with US civilian representative Amos Hochstein to respond to reported violations in real-time, Kirby said.

The White House spokesperson said Israel and Lebanon remain committed to the ceasefire, but he conceded that it is only one week old, and there is more work to do to ensure that the enforcement mechanism is bolstered.

Pressed on the subject during a subsequent briefing, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller responded similarly, insisting that the ceasefire has not broken down.

He said the US-led enforcement mechanism is still adjudicating claims by both sides of ceasefire violations. “That’s what we’ll do over the coming days and coming months.”

“If we do see violations of the ceasefire, we’ll go to the parties and tell them to knock it off,” Miller said.

A soldier with the 146th Division stands guard in southern Lebanon amid a ceasefire with Hezbollah, in a handout photo published November 27, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

The State Department spokesperson declined to comment on reports that Hochstein has reached out to Israel to express concern that Israel is enforcing the ceasefire “too aggressively.”

“Broadly speaking, it is our assessment that despite some of these incidents that we are seeing, the ceasefire is holding,” Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, also told reporters.

Israel rejected accusations of violating the ceasefire agreement and said that its strikes in recent days have targeted Hezbollah infractions.

The IDF said on Monday that it had carried out several strikes in Lebanon in the past day, following Hezbollah actions “that posed a threat to the State of Israel and violated the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.”

It said that it had struck several military vehicles operating at a Hezbollah missile manufacturing facility in the Beqaa Valley, and additional vehicles at several sites on the Lebanon-Syria border in the Hermel District, which were used by Hezbollah to transport weapons.

“The IDF is deployed in southern Lebanon and acts against any threat that endangers the State of Israel” the military said.

Cars drive past buildings that were damaged or destroyed in Israeli strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs Hay el-Sellom neighborhood on December 2, 2024. (Anwar Amro/AFP)

In one incident, the Lebanese army said that an Israeli strike targeted a military bulldozer while it was carrying out fortification work inside the Al-Abbara military base near the border with Syria, wounding one soldier.

The IDF said that it was investigating the incident.

While Israel has insisted that its strikes are legitimate, as they are targeting Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure, the US reportedly warned on Monday that its actions violate the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

US, France said urging Israel to uphold ceasefire

According to Hebrew media reports, US special envoy Amos Hochstein sent a message in which he urged Israel to uphold the agreement. In particular, he cited Israeli drone flights over Beirut.

The Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment on the report, although Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel was “very resolutely enforcing the ceasefire agreement, and every violation is immediately being met with an intense reaction by the IDF.”

The reported message from Hochstein came a day after French diplomatic sources told Hebrew media outlets that France had accused Israel of 52 separate ceasefire violations.

US special envoy Amos Hochstein talks to reporters following his meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (not pictured) in Beirut on November 20, 2024. (AFP)

The sources claimed that although Israel was acting against Hezbollah’s own violations, the IDF did not go through the proper channels to report the Lebanese terror group’s transgressions to the US-led international oversight body, of which France is a member, as required by the terms of the agreement.

Although France has not publicly confirmed the report, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told his Israeli counterpart, Gideon Sa’ar, in a call on Monday morning, that there was a “need for all parties to respect the ceasefire in Lebanon.”

Sa’ar, in response, told Barrot that Israel was not violating the terms of the truce, but is instead “enforcing them in the face of Hezbollah’s violations that require an immediate response in real time.”

According to Sa’ar’s office, he pointed at examples of Hezbollah operatives walking around armed, south of the Litani River, or moving weapons.

“Their mere presence south of the Litani is the most fundamental violation. They must move north!” said Sa’ar, according to the Israeli readout.

Health workers waving a Hezbollah flag dig up the coffins of people killed in war and buried in a mass grave, in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on December 2, 2024, ahead of moving them to be reburied in their villages. (Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

He also called on the Lebanese government to “clearly authorize the Lebanese army to carry out the actions required of it under the agreement.”

Israel will not accept a return to the prewar situation in Lebanon, Sa’ar declared.

The ceasefire that came into effect last Wednesday was designed to bring to an end almost 14 months of Hezbollah-initiated fighting.

It stipulates that the IDF has 60 days to withdraw under the deal while the Lebanese army is to gradually take responsibility for southern Lebanon, and an American-led committee will be established to adjudicate complaints regarding potential ceasefire violations, the military said.

Hezbollah forces will leave southern Lebanon, and its military infrastructure will be dismantled, according to the agreement. The US has also reportedly provided a side letter specifying Israel’s rights to respond to any violations of the ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing into Israel one day after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught in southern Israel, in support of its fellow Iran-backed terror group, drawing Israeli reprisals and leading to the displacement of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel.

Fighting intensified in late September, with Israel killing much of Hezbollah’s leadership and launching a limited ground incursion on October 1 that has seen soldiers search villages for rockets and other arms held by the terror group, and tackle its terror tunnels and other infrastructure.

Agencies contributed to this report.

end

JERUSALEM POST/TUESDAY MORNING

‘We’re moving backward’: IDF officers express criticism over Lebanon ceasefire

A reserve officer noted, “Hezbollah terrorists will be back at the border soon, and they’ll do it in different forms.

By AMIR BOHBOTDECEMBER 3, 2024 12:12Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 12:23

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IDF officers from the Northern Command criticized the IDF on Tuesday for not utilizing the opportunity given to it in the ceasefire to patrol villages in southern Lebanon in order to dismantle terror networks and eliminate weapons caches in the area.

“On the first day, it worked,” said one Northern Command officer. “Patrols began, and we detained Hezbollah terrorists and Lebanese civilians. At least one individual came out of hiding. The others? They moved from northern to southern Lebanon, exploiting the fact that the Lebanese Army had yet to set up checkpoints or simply bypassed those already in place.”

The officers noted that Lebanese civilians are indeed returning to their homes despite reports suggesting otherwise. “Most are coming back to see what happened to their houses and villages,” an officer explained. “Some discovered that there’s nothing left.”

Sharp criticism was directed at the senior command for not adopting a more proactive approach. “We could have taken far greater advantage of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon to scan and destroy terror infrastructure and weapons,” one officer remarked.

“Instead, we’re retreating, hesitating, and reducing forces in certain areas. Why? Rather than expanding search operations, we’re overly cautious. It’s a mistake. We’re moving backward again. Talk to the troops on the ground – they’ll tell you what they see with their own eyes.”

‘Hezbollah will be back at the border soon’

A reserve officer added, “Hezbollah terrorists will be back at the border soon, and they’ll do it in different forms. They won’t wait. They don’t need to wear uniforms. It will fall to intelligence to identify them. We know that some of the journalists being sent to the border are working for Hezbollah. That’s how it starts. The real issue is that in 60 days, it’ll be even harder to act.”

Another officer operating in the area voiced concerns about operational readiness. “Soldiers are being sent on leave and short breaks. There are missions to accomplish, but it’s hard to carry them out. No one wants to go on patrol knowing they don’t have the full support of critical units, like bomb disposal teams or additional forces for searches and responses. As a result, commanders are hesitant to take the initiative.”

END

ISRAEL///HEZBOLLAH/

Israel warns Lebanon to ensure Hezbollah adheres to truce or face attacks itself

Defense minister urges Lebanese to keep terror group within terms of ceasefire; alleged Israeli strikes hit south Lebanon, Syria; US said to press Jerusalem, Beirut to uphold deal

By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and AgenciesToday, 4:20 pm

Defense Minister Israel Katz, center, meets with officers on the northern border, December 3, 2024. (Elad Malka/Defense Ministry)

Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Tuesday that if the recently implemented ceasefire with Hezbollah collapses, the state of Lebanon will no longer be exempt from blame for attacks, and Israel’s military responses will not distinguish between the terror group and the country where it is based.

Katz’s remarks came a day after as the ceasefire, reached last week after 14 months of conflict initiated by Hezbollah, was rattled by a Hezbollah mortar attack on Israeli territory and retaliatory IDF strikes on southern Lebanon.

As ceasefire mediators France and the US were said to be pressing both Jerusalem and Beirut to rein in the fighting and prevent the deal from unraveling, local media reported Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and near Damascus International Airport in Syria.

“We will work with all our might to enforce all the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and we show maximum response and zero tolerance,” Katz said during a visit to the northern border areas whose 60,000 residents were evacuated last October when Hezbollah began cross-border fire in support of Hamas amid the Palestinian terror group’s war with Israel.

“Yesterday was the first test, [Hezbollah] shooting at Mount Dov. We reacted strongly and this is exactly what we will do, and we will not allow Hezbollah to return to the old methods they had, such as the tent that was set up and not attacked,” he said, referring to a Hezbollah structure that was placed along the so-called Blue Line that demarcates between the Israel and Lebanon.

Katz said that Lebanon must “authorize the Lebanese army to enforce their part, to keep Hezbollah away beyond the Litani [River] and to dismantle all the infrastructure.”

“If they don’t do it and this whole agreement collapses, then the reality will be very clear. First of all, if we return to war we will act strongly, we will go deeper, and the most important thing they need to know is that there will be no longer be immunity for the state of Lebanon,” he continued.

Defense Minister Israel Katz meets with officers on the northern border, December 3, 2024. (Elad Malka/Defense Ministry)

“If until now we have distinguished between the state of Lebanon and Hezbollah, and between Beirut as a whole and [its southern suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold] Dahiyeh, which we have struck very hard, this will no longer be [the case],” Katz warned.

The Al-Manar outlet, affiliated with Hezbollah, reported Israeli drone strikes in Beit Lif and then later in Deir Seryan.

Meanwhile, Syria’s official news agency reported an alleged Israeli airstrike hit a car on the Damascus airport road, causing it to explode.

“A car exploded after it was targeted in an Israeli aggression on the road to Damascus International Airport,” SANA reported, citing a police source.

It did not say who was targeted or if there were any casualties.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor run by a single person or unclear resources, said one person was killed and another wounded in an Israeli drone strike, without specifying who was targeted.

Some Arabic media reports said the strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander.

A view of south Lebanon from a destroyed home in Kibbutz Manara, November 27, 2024. (Eli Katzoff)

The development came the day after Syria’s Sham FM radio reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes targeted border crossings between Lebanon and Syria in the al-Qusayr area, a location Israel has hit before, saying the crossings were being used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon.

Since Syria’s civil war broke out in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in the country. Israel rarely comments on such strikes but has repeatedly said it will not allow Iran to expand its presence in the country or supply weapons via Syria to Hezbollah.

The IDF didn’t comment on the alleged Tuesday strikes in Lebanon or Syria.

The ceasefire that came into effect last Wednesday stipulates that the IDF has 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon, where it launched an operation in October to drive Hezbollah from the border region, and cede responsibility for the area to the Lebanese army. An American-led committee will be established to adjudicate complaints regarding potential ceasefire violations.

Hezbollah forces will leave southern Lebanon, and the terror group’s military infrastructure will be dismantled, according to the agreement. The US has also reportedly provided a side letter specifying Israel’s rights to respond to any violations of the deal. The letter is said to include guarantees from Washington that allow Israel reconnaissance flights over Lebanon as long as they do not break the sound barrier.

The Lebanese army, which kept to the sidelines during the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, was looking for more recruits as it beefs up its presence in southern Lebanon.

The army said those interested in joining up have a one-month period to apply, starting Tuesday.

The Lebanese army has about 80,000 troops, with around 5,000 of them deployed in the south. However, before the war began its forces were no match for the Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Washington, Paris working to keep ceasefire together

Amid the renewed exchanges of fire, top Lebanese officials have urged Washington and Paris to press Israel to uphold the ceasefire, two senior Lebanese political sources told Reuters.

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati delivers a statement to the press in Beirut on November 27, 2024. (Fadel ITANI / AFP)

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally who negotiated the deal on behalf of Lebanon, spoke to officials at the White House and French presidency late Monday and expressed concern about the state of the ceasefire, the sources said.

Neither the French presidency nor the foreign ministry were immediately available to comment. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot spoke to his Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa’ar on Monday, saying both sides should adhere to the ceasefire.

The mechanism chaired by the United States that will be tasked with monitoring, verifying, and helping enforce the truce has yet to begin work.

Two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that France’s representative to the committee, Gen. Guillaume Ponchin, will arrive in Beirut on Wednesday and that the committee will hold its first meeting on Thursday.

“There is an urgency to finalize the mechanism, otherwise it will be too late,” the source said, referring to Israel’s gradual intensification of strikes in response to Hezbollah allegedly not keeping its part of the bargain and Lebanese authorities not taking enough action to ensure it does.

The US pressured Israel to limit its response to Monday’s Hezbollah mortar attack and refrain from hitting Beirut, Hebrew media reported, citing Israeli sources.

The US asked Israel to refrain from “disproportionate responses,” the Ynet news site said.

Washington also pressured Lebanon to ensure Hezbollah did not step up attacks and endanger the ceasefire, reports said.

Smoke rises from a village in southern Lebanon, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, on December 2, 2024. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)

Hezbollah claimed that it launched the mortars in response to Israel’s “repeated violations” of the ceasefire deal, and said that it should serve as an “initial warning” over IDF strikes in Lebanon during the truce and the “continued violation of Lebanese airspace by hostile Israeli aircraft.”

While Israel has insisted that its strikes are legitimate, as they are targeting Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure, the US reportedly warned on Monday that its actions violate the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

According to Hebrew media reports, US special envoy Amos Hochstein sent a message in which he urged Israel to uphold the agreement. In particular, he cited Israeli drone flights over Beirut.

Hezbollah began firing into Israel one day after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught in southern Israel, in support of its fellow Iran-backed terror group, drawing Israeli reprisals and leading to the displacement of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel.

Fighting intensified in late September, with Israel killing much of Hezbollah’s leadership and launching a limited ground incursion on October 1 that has seen soldiers search villages for rockets and other arms held by the terror group, and tackle its terror tunnels and other infrastructure.

AND THEN THIS:

Strikes targeting the Lebanon Syria border where munitions are trying to enter Lebanon

Syria has its own problems

(Times of Israel)

Report: Israeli strikes this evening targeted Lebanon-Syria border crossings

By Emanuel Fabian

Syria’s Sham FM radio reports that a series of Israeli airstrikes this evening targeted border crossings between Lebanon and Syria in the al-Qusayr area.

The IDF has bombed the crossings before, saying that they were being used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon.

The strikes this evening came during an Israeli response to a Hezbollah mortar attack.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Lebanon Ceasefire On Brink Of Collapse As Tit-For-Tat Fire Intensifies

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 11:05 AM

The Lebanon ceasefire which went into effect on November 27 is now hanging by a thread, amid an increasing intensity of of tit-for-tat exchanges of gunfire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah.

In response to reports of Israeli fire, Hezbollah on Monday fired back as a “warning” shot into northern Israel, causing no casualties, according to regional reporting. Since then there have been several rockets fired.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately blasted what he called a serious violation of the fragile ceasefire. “Hezbollah’s firing at Mount Dov constitutes a serious violation of the ceasefire, and Israel will respond forcefully,” he said.

‘”We are determined to continue enforcing the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — a minor one will be treated like a major one.”

The IDF then proceeded to mount a series of large airstrikes on south Lebanon, which left at least five people dead. Nearly a dozen fatalities have been recorded due to Israeli attacks since last week’s ceasefire went into effect, per Al Jazeera:

Israel has killed eleven people, including a State Security officer, in separate attacks in Lebanon as it continues its assaults on the country since the ceasefire with Hezbollah came into effect last week.

Surprisingly, CNN has laid the blame for the crumbling ceasefire on Israel’s continued strikes, which have been much greater in number and intensity…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1863669288101355752

IDF is now attacking Lebanon, they claim that these attacks are a response to Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire deal.

The attacks have reportedly involved artillery and small arms fire along with the airstrikes. Hezbollah has since escalated with rocket fire which the group has called “defensive” in nature.

This is supposed to be the period a 60-day transition where UN peacekeeping forces and the Lebanese national army takes control of Hezbollah positions in south Lebanon.

“The Israelis have been playing a dangerous game in recent days,” a US official told Axios. The Axios report further stresses that the ceasefire could collapse at any moment, also after Israel flew several drones over Beirut on Sunday.

The Biden administration is not officially laying blame on Israel, however. John Kirby has said some degree of limited exchange of fire was expended. “There has been dramatic reduction in the violence. The monitoring mechanism is in full force and is working … largely speaking the ceasefire is holding,” he told reporters at the start of the week.

On Monday a Pentagon spokesman also described that despite some incidents, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is holding. 

https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/1863896985335435556

Netanyahu is meanwhile warning that if the ceasefire isn’t adhered to, and if it unravels, Lebanon can expect nothing less than a full-scale ground assault on the south to continue, and an all-out war. Israeli officials say that all of Lebanon will be fair-game for attacks.

ISRAEL.HAMAS/WEST BANK

IDF drone strikes terror cell in Jordan Valley

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 3, 2024 11:40Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 11:53

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An IDF drone struck a terrorist cell in the Aqaba area in the Jordan Valley, the IDF announced on Tuesday morning.

This is a developing story.

IDF issues evacuation orders after rocket fire from Gaza; Navy downs drone over Red Sea

ISRAEL/HAMAS

(JERUSALEM POST)

IDF kills seven Hamas terrorists involved in October 7 massacre

The military noted that troops had carried out precise raids in the area.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 3, 2024 11:55Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 12:09

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IDF troops of the 99th Division killed seven Hamas terrorists involved in the October 7 massacre, the military said on Tuesday. 

Nukhba terrorist Abd Alrazak, who was also an engineering operative in the center of the Gaza Strip, was eliminated along with Marzuk Alhur, who was a Hamas terrorist who infiltrated southern Israel on October 7. 

The military also mentioned Ma’az Alhur, Abd Abu Awad Yusri, Omer Abu Abdallah, and Ma’ad Abu Garboa as Hamas terrorists who had participated in the October 7 massacre.

In addition, Nukhba terrorist Ahmed Zahad took part in the massacre, the IDF added. 

IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, December 3, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

The 179th and 551st Brigades conducted several targeted raids in the area, during which they dismantled Hamas military terror sites, including military structures, observation posts, and sniper positions.

Additionally, numerous weapons were located and dismantled, including grenades, arms, military vests, explosives, and mortars.

END

SYRIA/HTS/IRAN/IRAQ/TURKEY/USA//.MONDAY//ALEPPO INVASION

Iraqi militias pour into Syria trying to help this beleaguered country

(zerohedge))

Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Pour Across Border Into Syria To Bolster Assad

Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 05:20 PM

Widespread reports, including observers on the ground, have indicated that Iran-backed Iraqi militias have been pouring across the border into eastern Syria to assist Damascus in repelling the Islamist militant advance after Al Qaeda splinter group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham took over Aleppo this weekend.

A Syrian army officer has told Reuters that Iraqi militia forces crossing the border are “fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the frontlines in the north.”

Many of the fighters have been identified as belonging to the Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups. The US has long been in an internecine conflict with Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, with over the years periodic rocket fire even targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad, as well as various bases which host remaining American troops.

The Iraqi militias have been staging in the area of Abu Kamal overnight. There were rumors that US warplanes attacked their positions, but these reports turned out to be untrue.

But these forces have been fully aware that the Pentagon could attack their convoys at any moment, and so have reportedly been crossing the border in small groups and using concealed roads.

“At least 300 fighters, primarily from the Badr and Nujabaa groups, crossed late on Sunday using a dirt road to avoid the official border crossing, two Iraqi security sources said, adding that they were there to defend a Shi’ite shrine,” Reuters reports.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday that with regard to new fighting in Syria, “resistance groups will help and Iran will provide any support needed.” Russia has been assisting with aerial bombardments.

To recap via a note from Rabobank:

On the geopolitics front the swift dismantling of Hezbollah by Israel, and Russia’s preoccupation with its war on Ukraine appears to have come at great cost for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. ‘Rebel’ forces recaptured the country’s second largest city of Aleppo as regime troops were left somewhat stranded by Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies and were consequently overwhelmed by the Turkish-backed rebels.

In a situation similar to Yemen, civil war has been raging in Syria for 13 years without attracting a great deal of mainstream interest in Western media. In the case of Yemen, that all changed once the civil war impacted upon freight transits through the Suez Canal, while in Syria the ongoing competition for spheres of influence by Great Powers (Russia, USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Israel etc) provides a useful microcosm of the new global paradigm, but only if one cares to look.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1863488218827481148

In Lebanon, interestingly Hezbollah has said it does not plan to send its fighters “for now” to northern Syria to help Assad forces regain territory. Lebanese Hezbollah has of course been bogged down in over a year of fighting with Israel’s military, which has included the last two months of an IDF ground offensive in the south.

Hezbollah was instrumental during the first ten years of proxy war in pushing out the US-Gulf backed jihadists; however, currently it looks like Assad’s main help will come from Iran and Iraq.

President Assad was somewhat quiet throughout much of the Israel-Hezbollah war, and this could be at play in Hezbollah leadership’s current reluctance to engage in the Syria theatre of the war. But it remains that the Lebanese Shia group is still desperately trying to rebuild its command structure and replenish its resources. 

As for the Iraqi militia presence in eastern Syria, they are likely to clash with the US-backed ‘Free Syrian Army’ and ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) in the area. It remains possible that US warplanes could engage as well.

END

SYRIA REBELLION/

Rebellion ready to take the next major city Hama

Syrian rebels advance close to Hama city, raising pressure on Assad and his allies

Rebels and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said insurgents had captured villages, including Maar Shahur, a few miles north of the city.

By REUTERSDECEMBER 3, 2024 19:09Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 19:13

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Syrian rebels advancing against government forces pushed close on Tuesday to the major city of Hama, rebels and a war monitor said after their sudden capture of Aleppo last week rocked President Bashar Assad.

Rebels and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said insurgents had captured villages, including Maar Shahur, a few miles north of the city. Syrian state media said reinforcements were arriving in the area.

An attack on Hama would ramp up pressure on Assad, whose Russian and Iranian allies have scrambled to support him against a reviving rebellion. The city has remained in government hands since civil war erupted in 2011.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an Arabic-language interview that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus asked, and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged an end to “terrorist aggression” in Syria, RIA reported.

Iraq Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani said Baghdad would not be “a mere spectator” in Syria and blamed Israeli military strikes on the Syrian government for the rebel advance, his office said.

Compounding Assad’s problems, fighters from a US-backed, Kurdish-led coalition battled government forces in the northeast, both sides said, opening a new front along a vital supply route.

Last week’s rebel seizure of Aleppo – Syria’s largest city before the war – marked the biggest offensive for years.

The front lines of the conflict have been frozen since 2020 after Assad clawed back most of the country from rebels, thanks to help from Russian air power and military help from Iran and its network of regional Shi’ite militia groups.

Now, however, Russia has been concentrating on the war in Ukraine, while Israeli strikes over the past three months have decimated the leadership of Hezbollah, the strongest Iran-backed force fighting in Syria.

On Monday, hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi militia fighters entered Syria to back up Syrian government forces, Iraqi and Syrian sources said, but Hezbollah does not plan to send forces now.

---

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A rebel source said Iran-backed militia fighters were among the forces they were battling outside Hama.

In recent days, Russian and Syrian government warplanes have intensified airstrikes against rebels, both sides have said. Rescue workers have reported deadly strikes on hospitals in Aleppo and Idlib.

JOCKEYING FOR TERRITORY

Any sustained escalation in Syria risks further destabilizing a region already alight from wars in Gaza and Lebanon, where a truce between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group took effect last week.

The retreat by Assad’s forces over the past several days has led to jockeying for control among other groups that control pockets in the northwest, north, and east.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, an umbrella group that controls territory in Syria’s east with US support, said early on Tuesday that its Deir al-Zor Military Council had “become responsible for protecting” seven villages previously held by the Syrian army.

The Deir al-Zor Military Council comprises local Arab fighters under the SDF, an alliance mainly led by a Kurdish militia, the YPG.

Syrian state media reported that the army and allied forces were repelling an SDF assault on the villages, the only Syrian government presence along the east bank of the Euphrates River, an area otherwise mostly held by the SDF.

A Syrian military officer said the SDF push was aimed at exploiting government forces’ weakness after the rebel advance and said the army and allied Iran-backed militia groups were sending reinforcements.

Airstrikes also targeted Iran-backed militia groups supporting Syrian government forces in the strategically vital region, a security source in eastern Syria and a Syrian army source said.

The US military, which has a small number of troops based at a gas field in the area, carried out at least one strike in self-defense overnight, a US official said, adding it was not related to the ongoing rebel advances.

Crowded battlefield

The battlefield is crowded in northern Syria, with the US, Russia, Iran, and Turkey all involved in the renewed fighting, underscoring the messy global politics at play.

On Monday, Iran said there would be a foreign ministers meeting with Turkey and Russia in Doha next weekend as part of a diplomatic process that had earlier been used to stabilize borders.

The SDF was the main Western-backed ground force in eastern Syria fighting Islamic State, which ran a jihadist mini-state there from 2014-17. Turkey says the SDF’s main fighting force, the YPG, are Kurdish separatists it regards as terrorists and sent troops across the frontier in 2017 to push them back.

Rebel advances in recent days have dislodged the YPG from areas in and near Aleppo, including Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsoud district and a corridor around Tel Refaat to the north.

The SDF presence in northeast Syria along much of the border with Iraq also complicates supply lines for Iran-backed regional militia groups supporting Assad. On Monday, Reuters reported that hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi fighters had crossed the border into Syria to help government forces.

Israel has regularly struck Iran-backed forces in Syria. Hezbollah said an Israeli strike near Damascus on Tuesday killed one of its senior officers liaising with the Syrian military. Israel’s military said it does not comment on reports in foreign media.

Putin and Erdogan hold phone call

Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the “sharply escalated” situation in Syria on the phone with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.

Putin stressed the need to end aggression against the Syrian state, including leveraging Ankara’s capabilities, it said in a statement, and both leaders noted the importance of further close coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the matter.

“The two presidents will continue to be in contact with each other in the context of seeking steps to de-escalate the crisis,” the statement said.

SYRIA/REBELS /HTS/TURKEY/RUSSIA

A good article on the backstabbing Erdogan and how he is trying to muscle his way into the centre of the middle east conflict

(Gallagher)

Erdogan Backstabs His Way Into Center Of Middle East Conflict

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan just had a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Nov. 24 in which the former reportedly talked up plans to expand cooperation as the two countries have done in recent years. Part of that includes years of Moscow holding the hands of Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in an effort to mend ties due to Türkiye’s key role in the dirty war effort to topple the Assad government.

Beijing was also interested in seeing that reconciliation happen and were led by Erdogan to believe it was in the cards and that Türkiye’s days of launching jihadi operations were over.

The Turkish people are also overwhelmingly against the Israel-US rampage through the Middle East, and Erdogan has spent the past year-plus railing against their crimes and selling the people on stopping the flow of supplies to Tel Aviv vital for its genocidal operations (in reality he’s only been disguising it).

Erdogan stabbed them all in the back when it launched its paramilitary forces in northwestern Syria into action last week in the most intense fighting in northwestern Syria since 2020, when Russian-backed government forces seized areas previously controlled by opposition fighters.

US proxies — Ukrainian neo-Nazis, Islamic fundamentalists, and Zionist genocidaires — are all converging on Syria in a renewed attempt to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or at least peel off more territory ahead of any potential settlement and weaken the influence of Tehran in the country.

Türkiye, as the biggest backer of the Islamist paramilitaries Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is playing a central role. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is denying Ankara involvement, but while that’s implausible enough given that Türkiye has long provided all types of support, it’s even more so considering that the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army militia reportedly participated in the battle alongside HTS. Elsewhere, Turkish security sources are saying they attempted to prevent the offensive but were unsuccessful while adding that it’s only “a limited offensive.”

While many in various corners are celebrating the offensive thinking this will weaken Russia (reports are that Russia is having to send reinforcement to Syria) and finally topple the hated Assad, a few things to keep in mind:

https://twitter.com/LindseySnell/status/1862599944617464210?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwte

What Is Türkiye Doing in Syria?

Here is the state of the situation in Syria as of Sunday morning, according to Elijah J Magnier:

The Syrian opposition forces, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ahrar al-Sham, with support from Islamist jihadist groups, have launched a significant ground offensive over the past 48 hours in rural Idlib, rural Aleppo, and parts of Aleppo city supported by drones and armoured battalions. In a rapid and well-coordinated advance, they have captured dozens of villages, including strategic areas along the M4 and M5 international highways connecting Damascus to Aleppo and Aleppo to Latakia, as well as the critical cities of Saraqeb and most of Aleppo. With the Syrian army’s defensive lines nearly nonexistent, it appears only a matter of time before opposition forces gain complete control of Aleppo city. Reclaiming these losses would require tens of thousands of troops, a resource the Syrian army does not currently possess.

Some reports now say that the opposition groups are already in control of Aleppo and Syrian government forces fell back to prepare for a counterattack.

The Turkish-backed offensive is conveniently timed to coincide with the Lebanon “ceasefire,” and according to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli officials view the advance on Aleppo as an opportunity to weaken Syria. That is unsurprising as it’s widely believed that Israel, thwarted in its ground invasion of Lebanon, has circled back to its previous backup plan following its 2006 failure in Lebanon, which is to eliminate Iran’s ability to resupply Hezbollah via Syria.

Türkiye is helping. As Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh said on 29 November, the Turkish-HTS offensive comes “within the framework of serving the goals of the Israeli occupation entity and its sponsors.”

Not only are Erdogan’s denunciations of Tel Aviv empty words, but it appears he is actively conspiring with Netanyahu and the US in Syria.

According to AFP and Russia’s Izvestia, Turkish intelligence gave the green light to and is helping to direct the offensive. It was coordinated between Turkish, Ukrainian, and French intelligence, with Israeli backing and US approval. HTS also receives considerable support from Ukrainian special forces with a focus on drone warfare to target Russian and Syrian positions — a connection facilitated by the Turks.

The US, like Turkey, is denying any involvement in the HTS-led offensive, but claimed the reason for Syria’s problems are Assad’s “reliance on Russia and Iran.”

Elsewhere in Syria, Israel is working in tandem with ISIS. Here’s what Syrian researcher, former soldier and journalist Ibrahim Wahdi told Vanessa Beeley about one such IAF attack on Syrian forces in Palmyra:

Local sources said that the Zionist aggression on the SAA and auxiliary forces in Palmyra city came during their rest after returning from military missions in the central Syrian desert.

According to field sources these units had been engaged in fierce clashes with ISIS terrorist groups in the Al Shoula area of the Deir Ezzor desert after they had been spotted infiltrating from within the US-imposed 55km exclusion zone around the US unlawful military base of Al Tanf on the border with Jordan, taking advantage of heavy fog to try and advance towards Syrian allied positions.

The Syrian allied forces routed the ISIS terrorists and caused significant injures and deaths among their ranks. Israel attacked Palmyra from the Al Tanf “protected” airspace therefore we can conclude that Israel was supporting the ISIS terrorist operations with airstrikes against the forces that have been entirely responsible for the defeat of ISIS in Syria with the help of the Russian Airforce since September 2015.

Beeley’s conclusion:

Israel is trying to decimate the Syrian Air Defence capability, demoralise and deplete Syrian armed forces and to destroy the essential infrastructure that provides a road link to Lebanon and the Hezbollah resistance forces. At the same time the US and Israel are bombing the Al Bukamal border crossing with Iraq to try to close the land bridge between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Thus they are intending to isolate both Lebanon and Syria from their allies and to break the links in the Resistance chain of supply which includes humanitarian aid, energy resources to combat the US occupation of Syrian resources, and military equipment to support the Resistance.

…The plan is clear – to deplete Syrian military capability and to keep the Syrian Arab Army busy on multiple fronts – in the north-west (Idlib), in the north (Türkiye and former Free Syrian Army proxies), in the north-east (US and Kurdish Contras), in the east (US base at Al-Tanf incubator for terror gangs including ISIS) and in the south (possible land invasion by Israel and Druze separatists backed by Israel, remnants of illegal armed groups in Daraa and surrounding countryside).

HTS (at that time still known as Al Nusra) and other jihadist groups previously had control of the majority of Syrian territory in the mid-2010s, before a major intervention by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah swung the situation in the other direction. According to Military Watch, the only reason HTS can continue to operate northwestern Syria is because Turkey has the area under its protection with military bases. Past Syrian efforts to defeat HTS and retake Idlib were squashed by the Turks, including air and artillery support to target Syrian positions and protect jihadists.

Turkey by assisting HTS and others in the current offensive — if not directing it — is violating the 2019 agreement it sponsored along with Russia and Iran to freeze the line of the conflict.

Since that 2019 agreement the US has kept up sanctions in an effort to strangle Syria while Israel continued to bomb groups that it claimed were Iranian revolutionary guards or Hezbollah militants. It would appear Erdogan simply used the 2019 freeze not to work towards a permanent peace with Assad’s Syria, but to rearm and prepare.

Erdogan Calculations

Erdogan’s interests in this case overlap with the US-Ukraine-Israel group. The diehard neo-Ottoman ambitions of Erdogan and his clique, which wish to see Turkey strengthen its influence over much of the former empire, coincide with the US-Ukraine-Israel’s desire to curtail Russian and Iranian influence curtailed in the region.

At the bare minimum Türkiye is looking to get more territory under its and its proxies control in Syria ahead of any permanent settlement (potentially under Trump II) for refugee return and which would also allow Ankara better positioning to neutralize the Kurdish forces it sees as a threat. Türkiye hosts more than three million Syrians, which Erdogan is under pressure domestically to do something about, and has been accused of coercing thousands into signing declarations of “voluntary return.” As the security environment “strengthens” in Syria, Erdogan says more Syrians will be expelled from Türkiye.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1862511666795020670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18625116667

That’s the generous view. The other is that all Erdogan’s talk about joining the BRICS, SCO, statements against Israel, thawing ties with Assad, (Syria wants Erdogan to withdraw troops and Islamist paramilitary groups before normalizing ties, which Erdogan refuses to do) have been a big head fake.

Burning Moscow — Again

Ankara faces a difficult balancing act with Moscow. Türkiye does not want to see Russia (or Iran) become too strong in the region and has always used the US as a counterweight. At the same time, Russia and Türkiye have a mutually beneficial economic relationship — one that has been critical to Erdogan’s political survival and helpful to Moscow in bypassing Western sanctions.

The US is increasingly putting that arrangement under strain by slapping more sanctions on Turkish and Russian entities, including recent restrictions on Gazprombank, which is linked to the Russian gas giant. Ankara is trying to get the US to agree to a waiver, a decision Washington would be unlikely to take without something in return.

Türkiye gets nearly half of its natural gas and a quarter of its oil from Russia on good deals. Russia even showed flexibility on payment to help Erdogan get re-elected this year.

Russian tourism to Turkiye has gone through the roof since the war in Ukraine and western sanctions started. Russia is also completing work on a nuclear power plant in Türkiye, a major milestone for the country on a deal beneficial to Türkiye, which includes the training of nuclear engineers by the Russians. Not only that, but Ugur Gurses, a former Turkish central banker, believes the Russians were using that plant to  transfer funds by purchasing Turkish bonds instead of direct bank transfers in a boost to Türkiye’s foreign reserves in a bid to help Erdogan get re-elected, which he did in the closest call in his two-decade rule.

Erdogan’s calculations in Syria likely conclude that Russia cannot retaliate too hard… yet. Erdogan similarly reneged on a deal with Russia last year when he returned Azov fighters in Turkish custody to Ukraine in violation of a prisoner exchange deal. While Moscow would no doubt be furious over Turkish support for the Syrian offensive, Russia  also wants to ensure going forward that Türkiye will continue to keep the Turkish Straits closed to NATO warships thereby keeping them out of the Black Sea. Russia wants to continue to send oil and gas to and through Türkiye to remaining European customers. Russia also needs to maintain good ties with Azerbaijan, which is close to Israel and Türkiye, for transport corridor purposes.

Meanwhile, Türkiye is getting a lot of good will from the West recently.

It looks like the US is rethinking the sale of F-35s to Türkiye, which was dropped from the program over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense system. It was rumored that Türkiye would have to hand over the S-400s for readmission to the F-35 program, but in light of the recent developments in Syria, maybe that’s not what the Americans were after. Der Spiegel recently reported that Germany’s Federal Security Council, which meets in secret, is approving the sale of $368 million worth of heavy weaponry to Türkiye, as well as reconsidering Türkiye’s request to purchase Eurofighter warplanes. That’s big news as it marks the end of a years-long unofficial embargo imposed by Western allies on Türkiye, which has hampered its defense sector development.

Burning China and the SCO

One of the biggest items on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) agenda at this summer’s summit, which Türkiye attended, was the resolution of the Syria issue.

The SCO has always emphasized the importance of combating terrorism and radicalism, especially in Central Asia where the US has tried to stir up trouble in recent years to no avail as investment by China and Russia in these countries dwarfs what the West has on offer. The recent summit, however, was seen as an expansion of the SCO’s ambitions to become the security provider to the Eurasian continent.

What the SCO wants to guard against above all else is efforts by the West to use terrorism or any other division strategies to thwart the growing power and economic integration of its member states.

Erdoğan attended the SCO summit and played up Türkiye’s potential contributions to the organization. Here he is alongside President Xi Jinping:

“The organization has become one of our important dialogue channels with Asia owing to our dialogue partner status, which we’ve held since 2013,” he said. “Our many years of experience fighting terrorism show that international cooperation is essential to dealing with this threat. In this context, we are ready to further strengthen our dialogue with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.”

In reality, Erdogan has done more supporting of terrorism than fighting. The Idlib governate straddling the Turkish border controlled by jihadist groups and supported by Ankara for is the primary hub of Islamist terror operations not only in Syria but also one of the biggest in the world.

Erdogan had an opportunity to wind that down, but instead looks to be doubling down, and Beijing is sure to be upset with his latest demonstration that he cannot be trusted.

Erdoğan, once an outspoken critic of Beijing due to its alleged treatment of Uyghurs, a Muslim minority of Turkic origin in western China, has almost completely dropped his criticism in recent years.

Both Erdoğan at the SCO summit and FM Fidan on his summer trip to China (where he said Türkiye “will not allow activities in Türkiye that undermine China’s territorial integrity” in reference to support for jihadists that could aid Xinjiang separatists) were asking for more investment from Beijing in Türkiye. (The EU-27 countries still contribute 59 percent of Türkiye’s foreign direct investment inflows.)

Beijing was slowly obliging. Chinese automotive company BYD recently announced that it will construct a $1 billion plant in western Türkiye. Ali Baba is planning to invest $2 billion in Turkiye. The Chinese lithium-ion power batteries company Farisis started production at a plant near Istanbul last year. Ankara is also in separate talks with Chinese EV makers SAIC Motor Corp., Chery Automobile, and Great Wall Motor Co for investments in factories in Türkiye.

One wonders if Beijing is rethinking.

twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1862992476455235705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ct

Shortsighted Calculations?

Erdogan’s ongoing support for extremist groups not only puts the economic relationship with China and Russia at risk, but if he’s doing so in part due to promises from the West, that could end up coming back to bite him. Like Erdogan, the US-led West is not agreement-capable, and any sanctions relief, F-35 deals, or Zangezur corridor promises could be snatched away as quickly as they’ve been gifted.

There’s also a good chance that Türkiye is throwing in with the losing side. An Iranian response to Israel is supposedly still coming. This renewed push by US proxies in Syria makes it more likely it’s going to be a strong one this time.

And the Moscow and Damascus response is already underway in Syria. From Military Watch:

…it was reported that over 400 militants were killed in the first 24 hours of engagements. The casualties were reported by deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, Captain 1st rank Oleg Ignasyuk, who stated: “Illegal armed units linked to the Jabhat Al Nusra terrorist organization started to attack government-controlled areas in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib at 7:50 a.m. on November 27. The Syrian army, backed by Russia’s Aerospace Forces, is engaged in heavy fighting. Terrorist units suffered major troop and equipment losses in the past 24 hours. At least 400 militants were eliminated.” The figures appear credible when considering Al Nusa’s demonstrated ability in the past to absorb massive casualties during its offensives, as well as the heavily fortified nature of the Syrian Arab Army’s positions between Aleppo and the Idlib governate where the jihadist group’s forces are based. Reports have indicated that foreign advisors supporting the offensives of have also been killed, with both Türkiye and Ukraine having provided such support to Al Nusra in the front.

According to Larry Johnson at Sonar21, “Reports on Telegram indicate that Syria, with ample support from Russia, are responding effectively to defeat the HTS attack. “

As referenced above, Russia might want Türkiye’s cooperation on the Black Sea and economic fronts for now, but for how much longer is it deemed necessary? Put another way, at what point does the cost of catering to Erdogan outweigh the benefits?

Maybe Russia, armed with its actual wonder weapons (as opposed to the imaginary Western ones), decides it’ll deal with the consequences of the Turkish straits being opened to NATO warships. Maybe Moscow decides it has enough other oil and gas customers, and it’ll take the hit by forgoing the exports to Türkiye and southeastern Europe. And there are other nations willing to help Russia bypass sanctions — although not in the EU customs union like Turkey.

Russia likely doesn’t want an even worse Türkiye headache at this time, but once Ukraine is eventually wrapped up, it could be bad news for Erdogan and his inner circle. It could be bad news even sooner if the majority of Turks figure out he’s playing them with all his fiery rhetoric against Israel.

We recently wrote about the potential spread of the Middle East conflict to the Caucasus region. All the major players from the Middle East conflicts are heavily involved in geopolitical maneuvering in the Caucasus. With Türkiye’s dramatic step into the ring and the Georgia color revolution attempt in full swing, as well as ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions with a heavy American presence in the former, it unfortunately looks like we’re inching closer to the Caucasus becoming another theater of the increasingly global New Cold War conflict.

end

SYRIA/REBELS VS GOVERNMENT/

SYRIA/REBELS/SYRIAN ARAB ARMY/IRAN/

RUSSIA;UKRAINE

Ukraine collapsing!

Visualizing Ukraine’s Collapsing Front Lines Amid The Steady Russian Onslaught 

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 04:15 AM

As we detailed earlier, the White House is currently overseeing a ‘massive surge’ in arms to Ukraine with just 50 days left before President-elect Trump enters office. The US is also this week announcing $725 million in more aid, which is the latest defense package for Ukraine drawn directly from US inventories.

It will include a second shipment of antipersonnel mines, and comes the same day that Germany also unveiled another $680 million in Ukraine aid. The Western allies have asserted that they want to see Zelensky and Ukraine forces in as favorable a position as possible before negotiations to end the war inevitably proceed (something which Trump has repeatedly promised from day one of his second administration). But the prime question remains: what good will the rapid infusion of more weapons do when the real problem is Ukraine’s collapsing manpower? To illustrate the reality of Russia’s rapid advance of the past several months…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1862854852663206243

Below is a round-up of the progression of the Russian advance according to article headlines stretching back more than a month ago to today, illustrating the same.

* * *

Headline from four weeks ago: Ukrainian defenses in Donbas risk getting steamrolled by Russian advance

On the front lines in Donbas, the situation “remains difficult”, Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrsky said in a Telegram message on November 2. Ukrainian forces there are “holding back one of the most powerful Russian offensives since the beginning of the full-scale invasion”, he added.

A renewed push by Russian forces that began in springtime now seems to be bearing fruit in east Ukraine. 

The Russian army advanced 478 km² into Ukrainian territory in October, according to an AFP study analysing data from the American thinktank the Institute for the Study of War. This is the largest advance it has made since the early days of the full-scale offensive in Ukraine in spring 2022.

Headline from two weeks ago: Ukraine front could ‘collapse’ as Russia gains accelerate, experts warn

The ISW data shows Moscow’s forces have seized around 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared with just 465 sq km in the whole of 2023, a near six-fold increase.

Dr Marina Miron, a defence researcher at Kings College London, suggested to the BBC that there was a possibility the Ukrainian eastern front “might actually collapse” if Russia continued to advance at pace.

More than 1000 sq km was taken between 1 September and 3 November, suggesting the push accelerated in recent months. Two areas bearing the brunt of these advances are Kupiansk in Kharkiv region, and Kurakhove, a stepping stone to the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region.

Headline from one week ago: Ukraine War Map Reveals Russia’s Rapid Front Line Advances

Russian forces have been advancing far more quickly in Donetsk region in recent weeks than they did for the whole of last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose map shows the state of play on the front line.

The Washington, D.C., think tank said on Sunday that recent Russian gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka showed that the war “is not stalemated” and the Donetsk region is “becoming increasingly fluid” with the latest Russian advances. Newsweek has emailed the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.

Russian forces have seized settlements northeast of Vuhledar and advanced north of the town they had captured in October, according to Ukrainian sources and geolocated footage.

Headline from two days ago: Russia Forges Ahead in Eastern Ukraine, Capturing More Villages in Recent Days

Russian troops in eastern Ukraine have seized at least 10 villages and settlements in roughly as many days, according to a group with ties to the Ukrainian Army that maps the battlefield, as Moscow presses on with slow but steady advances that have heightened pressure on Ukraine’s authorities to start cease-fire talks.

The situation looks particularly precarious for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, in Ukraine’s east, where Russian forces are closing in on their last two strongholds in the southern part of the region, according to the analysis by the group, DeepState. The fall of the strongholds, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, could pave the way for a Russian takeover of the area, experts say.

Russia, which annexed Donetsk in 2022 and controls about two-thirds of the region, is seeking to consolidate power over the whole territory.

Headline from today (Monday): ‘Major compromise’: How Ukraine’s Zelenskyy shifted goals to end Russia war 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said over the weekend that he seeks an early end to the war with Russia, adding Ukraine could retake occupied land later through diplomacy if Kyiv’s NATO membership is certain.

This marks a shift from his earlier stance, where he said the end of the war was contingent on Russia returning seized Ukrainian territory.

* * *

Russia could see itself in such a position as to not need negotiations at this point. If the two sides two sit down at the table to seek ceasefire, the terms will without doubt be fully in Moscow’s favor. With Russia winning on the battlefield in the east in this tragic war of attrition, the Kremlin is unlikely to want to “give up” anything at all. Compromise and territorial concessions will be on the Zelensky government’s shoulders.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

As many as 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted

(zerohedge)

As Many As 200,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Have Deserted: Lawmaker

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

Ukrainian soldiers refusing to report for duty or walking away from their front-line positions are becoming an increasing problem for Kiev. One Ukrainian lawmaker said that there have been as many as 200,000 desertions. 

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told the AP that “Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, tired and bereft, have walked away from combat and front-line positions to slide into anonymity.”

The report adds, “Entire units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.”

“Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory,” writes The Associated Press. 

“Others clash with commanders and refuse to carry out orders, sometimes in the middle of firefights.”

Soldiers failing to report to their posts are a rapidly worsening problem for Kiev. In 2022, only 9,000 Ukrainians were prosecuted for desertion.

That number increased to 24,000 in 2023. Ukrainian government data showed prosecutions skyrocketed to 50,000 during the first nine months of 2024. 

The prosecutions do not capture the whole picture as one Ukrainian lawmaker told AP the number “could be as high as 200,000.”

The growing problem is likely a result of war fatigue.

“It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people,” said one military officer. 

Between casualties and desertions, Kiev is facing a massive manpower shortage. The AP noted Kiev lost a net 4,000 soldiers along the front lines in September. The White House is pushing Ukraine to lower its consumption age to 18 to help fill shortages.

END

RUSSIA/UK/PANAMA

due to UK Russian sanctions, Panama delists 6 flagged oil ships

(zerohedge/OilPrice.com)

Panama Delists 6 Flagged Ships Over UK Russia Sanctions

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 05:00 AM

By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

Panama said it will cancel the registration of six ships sailing under its flag after they were sanctioned by the UK last week.

The delisting comes after Panama’s maritime authority in October pledged to penalize vessels sanctioned by the U.S., European Union, UK and United Nations.

“Safeguarding the prestige of our flag is a top priority for this administration. The state has a fundamental responsibility to protect the integrity of the Panamanian ship registry, ensuring it remains free from international sanctions and unlinked to vessels associated with such listings,” Ramon Franco, director general of merchant marine at the Panama Maritime Authority, said in a statement.

Moscow continues to export large volumes of crude despite sanctions by the West.

Earlier in the year, Panama Canal authorities engaged in talks with U.S. LNG producers on how to meet increased demand for crossings as water levels recovered. The canal authorities worked with shippers to secure more passage for LNG customers, with plans to build water reservoirs as a solution to mitigate climate change-related shortages.

Last year, Europe accounted for 66 percent of total U.S. LNG exports, followed by Asia at 26 percent and Latin America and the Middle East with a combined eight percent.

However, Cheniere Energy is highly optimistic about Asian LNG demand, despite some countries with large gas-reliant economies currently hampered by poor credit ratings.

“They tend to rely more on state-to-state agreements. Obviously that is not something we can participate in. We see Thailand, Philippines as very attractive markets,” Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin told Reuters. Feygin expects China to import 100 million metric tons per year in the future, up from about 64 million metric tons in 2022.

However, Europe’s likely to continue being the leading consumer of U.S. LNG for years to come, with the continent poised to cut off more Russian gas.

Earlier, Politico reported that the European Commission proposed sanctions on Russia’s LNG sector as part of Brussels’ 14th sanctions package against Russia.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/CHINA/USA

Super commentary by Escobar on Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missile

Escobar: Trump May Be ‘Oreshniked’ On Ukraine Even Before He Gets To China

Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 11:25 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

With Oreshnik now entering the picture, everywhere the Hegemon will try to harass China they will also have to face Russia…

When it comes to state of the art Russian weaponry, what the inestimable Ray McGovern defines as the MICIMATT – the whole Hegemonic complex – seems to dwell in perpetual stupor.

They had no clue about Kalibr, Sarmat, Khinzal, Zircon or Avangard before they were introduced. They had no clue about Oreshnik (‘Hazel”) before the 30-minute protocolar warning by the Russians, stating a missile test was coming, and it was not nuclear. The Americans assumed that would be just another ballistic missile test, as they happen routinely close to the Arctic.

Even President Putin didn’t know Oreshnik was ready for its close-up until the last minute. And Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed that only an ultra-rarefied circle knew Oreshnik even existed.

In a nutshell: the MICIMATT only sees what Russia shows off – and when it happens. Call it a leak-proof vow of secrecy permeating the Russian military complex – which, by the way, is a massive state, nationalized company, with a few private components.

And that offers the Russian government, in practice, better engineering, better physics, better mathematics and better practical, final results than anything across the self-important collective West.

Oreshnik – a kinetic weapons system – is a certified game-changer when it comes to military technology and warfare in more ways than one: actually several. Simple physics tells us that by combining enough kinetic force and mass, utter devastation is guaranteed, comparable to a low-to-medium yield nuclear weapon. With the added benefit of no radiation.

Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), under development by Russia (along with other systems) even before Trump 1.0 pulled the U.S. out of the INF treaty in 2019.

A few concise analyses have pointed out how Oreshnik can be fitted into intercontinental (italics mine) non-nuclear missiles. The Russians are being very diplomatic, not stressing that if Oreshnik is launched from the Russian Far East, it can easily reach most latitudes across the USA.

Moreover, applying Oreshnik tech to tactical missiles – Putin late last week said this is already happening – also changes the whole tactical domain.

The new game in town is Russia being capable of unleashing ultra-high-velocity kinetic weapons literally anywhere around the world – after warning civilians to abandon the area around the targets. And there’s absolutely no defense against it, anywhere.

Nowhere to run, baby, nowhere to hide

It’s quite predictable that the woke, arrogant/ignorant MICIMATT, as well as NATO and the whole, brainwashed collective West simply have no idea what just hit them, seemingly out of the blue.

To be concise: a system with the destructive power of a tactical nuclear weapon but carrying the precision of a top sniper’s bullet.

Ergo, sitting duck billion-dollar aircraft carriers; the whole, 800-plus Empire of Bases; assorted underground bunkers; ICBM launch platforms; naval shipyards; not to mention NATO’s HQ in Brussels, the Aegis Ashore base in Redzikowo (Poland), the NATO joint force center in the Netherlands, southern NATO command in Naples – all these immensely expensive assets are fair game for non-nuclear Oreshniks capable of reducing them to dust in a flash after flying for mere minutes at over Mach 10.

By now multitudes around the world are aware that Oreshnik may reach Berlin in 11 minutes and London in 19 minutes. Also that launched from southern Russia, Oreshnik may reach the U.S. air base in Qatar in 13 minutes; launched from Kamchatka in the Far East, it may reach Guam in 22 minutes; and launched from Chukotka, it may reach Minuteman III silos in Montana in 23 minutes.

To quote the epic 1960s Motown hit: “Nowhere to run, baby, nowhere to hide.”

Graphic proof that the MICIMATT and NATO have absolutely no clue what hit them – and will hit them again – is the escalation dementia in effect even after Oreshnik’s warheads reduced a missile factory in Dnipropetrovsk to smithereens. And even after Moscow made it quite clear that they don’t need nuclear weapons to hit anything they want anywhere on Earth.

The MICIMATT plus NATO, in tandem, fired ATACMS twice against Kursk; released a P.R. trial balloon related to the suicidal possibility of sending nuclear weapons to Kiev; NATO warned businesses to enter a “wartime scenario”; NATO’s armchair admiral Rob Bauer, a Dutch non-entity, advocated pre-emptive bombings of Russia; Le Petit Roi in France and the ghastly British PM re-started the gambit of “troop deployments” to Ukraine (Starmer later backed off); and last but not least, the Liver Sausage government in Germany started to draw plans to use metro stations as air raid shelters.

All this escalation paranoia sounds like a bunch of screaming kids playing in their dirty sandbox. Because for all practical purposes it is Russia which is now ruling the escalation game.

Breaking up Russia-China is hard to do

And that brings us to Trump 2.0.

The Deep State has already targeted Trump with a vicious war – a de facto pre-emptive counter-insurgency, even before he attempts to do anything practical regarding NATO’s collapsing Project Ukraine.

His ideal off-ramp might be an Afghanistan-style exit, leaving all the burdens ahead to a basket of NATO chihuahuas. Still, that’s not gonna happen.

Andrey Sushentsov is a program director of the Valdai Club and dean of MGIMO’s school of International Relations. He’s one of Russia’s top analysts. Sushentsov released this pearl to TASS, among other things:

“Trump is considering ending the Ukrainian crisis, not out of any sympathy for Russia, but because he acknowledges that Ukraine has no realistic chance of winning. His goal is to preserve Ukraine as a tool for U.S. interests, focusing on freezing the conflict rather than resolving it. Consequently, under Trump, the long-term strategy of countering Russia will persist. The U.S. continues to benefit from the Ukrainian crisis, regardless of which administration is in power.”

Sushentsov fully recognizes how “the U.S. state system is an inertial structure that resists decisions it deems contrary to American interests, so not all of Trump’s ideas will come to fruition.”

That’s just one graphic illustration, among many, that Moscow harbors no illusions whatsoever about Trump 2.0. Putin’s conditions for an attempt to solve the Ukraine riddle have been known at least since June: total Kiev withdrawal from Donbass and Novorossiya; no Ukraine in NATO; end of all 15,000+ Western sanctions; and a non-aligned, nuclear-free Ukraine.

That’s it. Everything non-negotiable; otherwise the war will continue on the battlefields, the way Russia sees fit, until Ukraine’s total surrender.

Evidently the Five Eyes – actually only 2 (U.S.-UK) – plus minion France, side by side with the most powerful silos inside the Deep State will continue to force Trump to double down on Project Ukraine, which is an essential part of the Forever Wars ethos.

The best he might be able to do is to divert attention from Project Ukraine by accommodating the Old Testament psychopathological genocidals in Tel Aviv, plus the Zio-con armada in D.C., in their obsession of forcing Washington to fight their war on Iran. Talk about a slight change of focus of the Forever Wars.

Tehran not only exports most of its energy to China but is an absolutely essential node of the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) as well as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); that is, north-south and east-west crisscrossing Eurasia.

That would be the real war of choice – simultaneously against three BRICS (Russia, China, Iran). After all the American ruling class is already invested on a do-or-die Hybrid War against BRICS.

Still, the Trump 2.0/China face-off will be the fulcrum of the Hegemon’s foreign policy starting January 20. Virtually all of Trump’s appointments – as misguided as they may be – believe it is possible to break apart the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership and prevent China from buying energy from Iran.

There will be attempts to disrupt shipping lanes and supply lines – from the Maritime Silk Roads in the Indian Ocean rimland to the Northern Sea Route by the Arctic, including possible false flags along the INSTC.

But with Oreshnik now entering the picture, everywhere the Hegemon will try to harass China they will also have to face Russia. So the temptation to end Project Ukraine and NATO’s encroachment on Russia’s western borders will always be there in the back of Trump’s mind, part of a “seduce Russia to undermine China” syndrome.

The problem for the Hegemon is that the interlocking BRICS/SCO-wide Russia-China-Iran strategic partnerships do have other – kinetic – ideas.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

RUSSIA/SYRIA/HTS/IRAN

end

END

RUSSIA/USA/CHINA

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Since they started “vaccinating” Italy, eight employees at eyewear company Luxottica have “died suddenly” or in “vaxxidents”

Meanwhile, in recent days, 10 people have “died suddenly” in Biella, west of Milan

Mark Crispin MillerDec 3

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Context from Cathleen Anderson, our researcher in Italy:

The “vaccination” mandate was for every employee/employer in Italy. You needed the Green Pass to be able to work. There was no such thing as a religious exemption. The “green pass” could be either you took the shot or you did a 3x week PCR test showing negative result, at your own expense. 

It started October 15, 2021. I know the date well because that’s when my husband was suspended from work for not having it. I went to work with him that day to film the incident. The manager was standing by the door asking for everyone’s Green pass and scanning it. Roberto said he didn’t have it, but wanted to work, and the manager told him he couldn’t enter.  Before that, during the summer, we couldn’t enter cultural sites, sporting and musical venues, we couldn’t eat indoors at restaurants. Then, we couldn’t stay in hotels or even eat outdoors in restaurants. Eventually we couldn’t enter anyplace except a supermarket, not even a bank (which is where my husband works). At one point they required it for anyone 50 and over (getting those that didn’t work). If you didn’t have it, they mailed you a fine. We were in Mexico during that time. We received the notices, but we ignored them. Nothing ever happened with that. 

These deaths at Luxottica started in 2022. So they either took the vax or did the test. Luxottica manufactures vision care and eyewear, with over 150 name brands. They bought Oakley a few years ago.

No one I know is talking about this.

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Luxottica employees:

Daniele Palman,Luxottica worker struck down by illness: he was 56 years old

August 21, 2024

Belluno — Daniele Palman, 56, a Luxottica worker at the Sedico plant, died last night from a sudden illness in his home in via Col di Piana: the death of him came as a bolt from the blue.

Link

Belluno, 40-year-old Luxottica employee found dead inside his van: who was Mimmo Tres

August 12, 2024

Mimmo Tres, a forty-year-old originally from Belluno and resident in Borgo Valbelluna, was found lifeless in a van parked along via Erizzo, in the hamlet of Bigolino in Valdobbiadene, in the province of Treviso. The discovery of the body occurred shortly after midday on Sunday 11 August. The man was found inside his van, parked under the scorching sun. Those who found him immediately understood that he was already dead. The Carabinieri and Suem 118 personnel immediately intervened on the scene, but unfortunately there was nothing that could be done. The person who found him lifeless was in shock, noticing that smelly body and opening the door before the macabre discovery. It was necessary to call in the paramedics to help him before he recovered. Tres was an employee of Luxottica and it is assumed that an illness, which had perhaps occurred two days earlier, was the cause of death. According to initial findings, the man, who was in excellent health, could have been a victim of the extreme heat that has been raging in the region for weeks now. The van was locked from the inside and no one had noticed the body until that moment. Investigations are now underway by the military of the Arma. 

Link

Kevin Fontanive dies at just 26 years old due to a sudden illness, he worked at Luxottica

January 16, 2023

Belluno – A sudden illness took the life of Kevin Fontanive, just 26 years old, a young man from Agordo who worked at Luxottica.The boy was found lifeless in his home in Frassené Agordino, in the municipality of Voltago, a few kilometers from the Trentino border with Primiero.

Link

Crashes into a house, 22-year-old dies instantly

October 24, 2022

Tragic accident in the night near Sedico, the victim is Alessandro Tabaku from Codogné. The young man worked at Luxotticaand should have graduated in a month. A 22-year-old boy died on the night of October 24th due to a serious road accident that occurred near Sedico, in the province of Belluno. The man in question was Alessandro Tabaku, from Codognè, a Luxottica employee for about eight months, who died instantly. From the initial investigations into the dynamics carried out by the Carabinieri, who carried out the surveys, around 5:30 the 22-year-old lost control of his car while he was speeding along the SR 203 Agordina, crashing into the wall of a house, perhaps to avoid crashing into a large animal, perhaps a deer or a roe deer. The car overturned after the violent impact. The firefighters and paramedics from Suem were on site but unfortunately they could do nothing to save him. The 22-year-old died almost instantly from a cervical trauma.

Link

Luxottica mourns its employee

January 15, 2023

The tragic news of the passing of Enza Montuori has shaken the festive atmosphere and the souls of all those who knew and respected her. Enza was 47 years old and very close to her family, to her husband Roberto Villella, to her children Luca and Alessia, to her mother Anna, her father-in-law Aldo and her brother Mimmo with his wife Roberta. She was a person much appreciated by both friends and colleagues atLuxottica in Lauriano where Enza had been working for 12 years with great professionalism.

Link

Killed by a heart attack at just 51: “My sister, a brave woman”

March 12, 2022

Santa Giustina — Sabina Dal Vesco’s smile suddenly disappeared on Thursday.The woman, who had been managing the bar da Chico in Santa Giustina for a long time, was only 51 years old.She had also worked at Luxottica. Originally from Cesiomaggiore where her mother still lives, she currently resided in Santa Giustina, where she was well known as she had been managing the bar da Chino in Salzan since 2019. The woman’s life was normal, divided between work, which she carried out with passion and professionalism, and her family; her partner, her children, her beloved grandson and her beloved cats. But tragedy struck on Thursday afternoon. Sabina was suddenly struck by a heart attack while she was resting at home. The timely intervention of the health workers was useless. There was nothing more that could be done for the woman. A tragedy that shocked the communities on the right bank of the Piave who knew and appreciated her, but also the many customers who came from outside.

Link

In hospital with fever, Christian killed at just 15 months by fulminant meningitis

November 28, 2022

Belluno – He died at just 15 months old, struck down by bacterial meningitis. His name was Christian Lozovyy, he was born on August 26, 2021 and lived in Belluno in the hamlet of Cavarzano in via Barozzi. He had been taken by his parents Olesya and Nazariy, of Ukrainian origin but resident in the capital for years, to the San Martino hospital with a high fever and from there transferred to the hospital in Padua, but the little boy died due to this fulminant menigitis caused by pneumococcus. The child’s situation had in fact worsened rapidly and the Belluno pediatricians decided to transfer him to the city of the Saint. The funeral will be held tomorrow, Tuesday 29 November, in the church of Cavarzano, then the little boy’s body will be buried in Cusighe. The child’s mother, Olesya Stavchanska, is an employee of Luxottica , the father studied at the Segato institute.

Link

Death on Feltrina, Pederobba in mourning for Lucival Neves

March 16, 2022

Pederobba – Lucival Neves, a 46-year-old Luxottica employee of Brazilian origin, was the victim of the fatal accident this morning, Wednesday, at 5 in Pederobba, along the Feltrina.According to an initial reconstruction, the victim’s car, for reasons currently being investigated, invaded the opposite lane and crashed into a truck. The sudden change in direction of his car could have been caused by illness or distraction. There was nothing that could be done for the 46-year-old, his injuries were too serious. The driver of the truck was a fifty-year-old resident in the province of Belluno who was unable to avoid the impact. The SUEM 118 paramedics arrived on site and could do nothing but confirm the man’s death. The Carabinieri from the local station also arrived to carry out the legal investigations.

Link

Luxottica, Del Vecchio’s fleet pilot dies of heart attack: Ivan was 50 years old

November 23, 2021

Agordo – Luxottica loses the pilot of its fleet. Ivan Berlai, 50, originally from Bertiolo (Udine) and resident in Codroipo, in the province of Pordenone, died during the night between Saturday and Sunday. He was killed by a sudden heart attack. After obtaining his license in Bologna, an experience at Benetton, for the last twelve years he was part of the fleet of aircraft of Leonardo Del Vecchio, owner of Luxottica. He was often the one to pilot the Gulfstream G650 jet, with the great captains. The attack came during the night, suddenly and capable of tearing him away. The 118 paramedics tried to revive him but there was nothing they could do for him.

Link

And the founder and president of Luxottica, Leonardo Del Vecchio, died on June 27, 2022, at the age of 87 during a hospitalization to treat pneumonia:

Leonardo Del Vecchio, the story of a simple man. A new biography by Tommaso Ebhardt on the patron of Luxottica

August 25, 2022

Leonardo Del Vecchio, founder of Luxottica and chairman of EssilorLuxottica, who passed away on June 27, returns to Cadore today. He does so through the presentation of the biographical text of the same name, written by Tommaso Ebhardt and published by the Italian Sperling & Kupfer. This afternoon, at 6:00 pm, at the auditorium of Palazzo Cos.mo, a few meters from the center of Pieve di Cadore and the birthplace of Titian, the author will present the volume and will talk with Vittorio Tabacchi, chairman of the foundation of the Museo dell’occhiale onlus, and with Roberto Papetti, director of the Gazzettino. In approximately 320 pages, Tommaso Ebhardt recounts the life, between successes and ambitions, of the well-known entrepreneur.

Link

Plus, in Biella (about 111km west of Milan, ), 10 people “died suddenly” in recent days:

In a few days, six sudden deaths of young men and women from Biella

Many well-known people have left the Biella people in grief in recent days. The general impression is that the Biella area has been hit by an endless series of deaths: the deaths were of young people (from forty to sixty years old), only six of which were sudden in the last three days. The news of the death of Antonella Duca , a postman from Vigliano Biellese who passed away at the Niguarda Hospital in Milan last Friday was particularly heartbreaking (the funeral will be held tomorrow in the parish church of San Giuseppe Operaio in Vigliano Biellese). Also shocking is the death of Mario Botta, a fifty-year-old well-known in the Biella area because (among other things) he was co-owner of the historic Cartoleria Mersi in via Bertodano in Biella.

More deaths of young men and women in the Biella area

In Valle Cervo the mourning was for Giuseppe Laterza, 63 years old, who yesterday (Sunday 15 October) collapsed in the street while he was taking a walk and died, struck down by a sudden illness that left him no escape. The man was very well known and esteemed, in the past he had also worked abroad as a craftsman in the construction field; the funeral will be held tomorrow (Tuesday 17 October) at 3 pm in the parish church of San Lorenzo in Andorno Micca. The most recent death was that of Claudia Aimone, only 54 years old, who passed away today at the hospital in Ponderano. Well known in the Biella area (she was an administrative employee in the Municipality of Lessona) she leaves behind her husband Romeo and her young son Federico. Her funeral will take place in the Bonino farewell room in Valdengo on Wednesday 18 October 2023 at 3 pm. Today two more sudden deaths : a 56-year-old man, who died while driving an Ape, and another 52-year-old man found dead in his home.

Link

A postscript (and more context) from researcher Cathleen Anderson:

One more event that happened to us. We had purchased tickets to fly to Mexico in  late January of 2022 (along with my husband’s mother, who had never flown on a plane in her life), since my husband was suspended and we couldn’t enter inside anywhere (except a supermarket) or even go snow skiing without the Green pass. There was talk from the government that they were going to require the Green pass to enter an airport in January sometime. So we changed our flights and left earlier on January 10th. Flying to the USA was out of the question because they required all non-citizens to have the Green pass, but I could enter without it, but my Italian husband couldn’t (makes so much sense, doesn’t it?). I have dual citizenship, so during the time when Americans needed the shot to come to Italy, I would use my Italian passport to enter Italy and my American one to enter the US. Mexico only required a negative pcr test, which we made fake ones.

While we were waiting at the Bologna airport for our flight, we went to the bar to get a coffee and a crossiant. The bar was an open space area, not enclosed.  While the barista was making our order, he asked for our “green pass”, and we said we didn’t have one. He gleefully poured out our coffee from the ceramic cups and poured them into plastic cups and put our croissants in a bag and said we couldn’t eat in the bar and that we had to eat in the chairs in the waiting area of the airport.

At that point, it really hit me how discriminated we were—even dogs had more rights than the unvaxxed. That moment really shook me and I understood that the people were in agreement with the discrimination. Hitler and his goons didn’t do it alone. He needed the willingness of the citizens to go against each other. It was the teachers, the bread makers, the neighbors, etc., that allowed his evil agenda to happen. Same as today.

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Which Scott Gotlieb? The slick back hair crook who jumped from FDA Commissioner to Pfizer? How many lives did he cost? That bitch now railing on Robert Kennedy Jr. saying RFK Jr. will kill people as

HHS Secretary…kill people? you regulated Pfizer then took a big job so I say you approved drugs & vaccines for Pfizer that KILLED people Scott, why not try suing me? Come argue with me Scott, huh?

Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 2

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner during Donald Trump‘s first presidency, raised alarm on Friday about the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), warning that Kennedy Jr.’s policies could lead to a resurgence of preventable childhood infectious diseases that would have dire consequences for public health.

The selection of vaccine skeptic Kennedy Jr. to President-elect Trump’s Cabinet as HHS secretary has startled many doctors and medical experts, with Dr. Ashish Jha, a former Biden administration COVID-19 coordinator and the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, calling it an “extraordinarily bad choice.”‘

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“I think if RFK follows through on his intentions and I believe he will, and I believe he can, it will cost lives in this country,” Gottlieb said, adding that this could start “on day one.”

Trump spat out Gottlied like a used drill bit, no use, he was sub-optimal and not suitable but then again, we got worse, Trump made a catastrophic mistake with Hahn, we got Hahn who gave Pfizer and Moderna EUAs for the Malone et al. deadly gene mRNA vaccine then jumped ship to Moderna for big money!

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You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

END

The mRNA technology gene-based vaccines should have NEVER ever been considered, the technology had never been proven safe! POTUS Trump was WRONG with Operation Warp Speed (OWS), it killed! Lockdowns

killed, the Malone Bourla Bancel et al. mRNA vaccine killed & these people like Malone sought fame & money until the deaths piled up & now say it is unsafe? Criminals! They lied to Trump & he bought

Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 2

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it.

Mr. Rogers above tells you about my view on the entire COVID fraud, lockdowns, and Malone et al. mRNA gene injection. And the planned ‘new and improved reworked minor adjusted’ mRNA vaccine and coming fake fraud PCR created false-positive avian bird flu (or similar) non-pandemic.

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Trump’s War 2.0 and his battles to save America will be epic. I stand with him. Firmly but I will call out wrong when I see it and when it will harm America.

This post is cutting to the core. I cannot be silent anymore. I am very concerned by some of the picks for Trump’s coming administration given their open vocal stance for the OWS and for the mRNA vaccine. They have to put out their positions again so that we the people, are informed if it evolved and has been updated. Changed in the positive.

I know too many people, good people, who suffered (are suffering) and died due to taking the Malone Shain Weissman et al. vaccine. Many tell me Paul para ‘you are headed back to the Trump administration so keep quiet, don’t you see all who want jobs are quiet now…so you need to be if you want a job in the administration’…I told them ‘I cannot be, I will not be, I cannot be silenced and bought and that I will continue the fight against the deaths of OWS and the mRNA gene vaccine and especially the ‘now’ move to bring a ‘new and improved’ mRNA vaccine so that you can take it for the coming lab created avian bird flu (H5N1, H5N2, H5N8, H7N9 etc.) lie of a fake non-pandemic’ if I am the only person’.

If I am the only person waging, then I am the only person.

Some say that the truth does not pay and many who have gone silent on the OWS and mRNA vaccine and ‘turning’, it is because they need a job and income. I do not agree with that. The word on inside is that they will join in supporting a ‘new and improved’ mRNA vaccine for a host of diseases. Out of need.

I stand against that.

POTUS Trump you are wrong, very wrong, for the Bourla Bancel Malone et al. COVID mRNA gene vaccines saved not one life, no one, no study, no real-world evidence exists, no evidence has shown that, or no study has proven that, and you are wrong that OWS saved lives, there is no data anywhere in this entire world that shows lockdowns, school closures, business closures saved one life, not one! These policies harmed and killed! Not one life was saved from OWS lockdowns or the mRNA vaccines.

They can keep their government job if that means my silence.

It is imperative that the NIH Director, the FDA Director, the CDC Director, the NIAID Director, the HHS Secretary, all stand up the moment they are confirmed for they fought the last 5 years against the Malone et al. gene platform vaccine and lockdowns and OWS, and so it is important that they stand up and declare the OWS lockdowns the failures they were, and as they are, and the mRNA vaccine the death shot it was. No job or title is worth their legacy and the truth, and we will be watching whose silence was bought.

It is time POTUS Trump that you stopped saying that the OWS and lockdowns saved lives and that the mRNA vaccine worked and saved lives, stop calling it ‘my beautiful vaccine’, there is nothing beautiful about it. I call it as it is, and so all appointees must stand up for the truth and if the job buys silence, then they have failed. We were conned! Then.

I have deep regard and respect for Robert Kennedy Jr. and sense and feel he will do great things in his new role. If, however, he turns to calling for support of the ‘new and improved’ mRNA vaccines for future created pandemics, then the public will know that this was all a game and lie and that we do have a serious battle on our hands for even those we trusted sold us out!

The 2 greatest public health disasters happened in Trump’s term 1, the lockdowns (OWS) and the Malone et al. mRNA gene vaccine and it is up to POTUS Trump in term 2 to set it right, by reversing LIABILITY Protection under the PREP ACT that protected the vaccine makers, health agencies, medical doctors etc. from law suits, and also move to implement a victim compensation fund to make ‘whole’ all those harmed by the OWS and mRNA vaccine, as well as stop, reverse the 1986 Childhood Vaccine Injury Act that absolved the makers from liability. As a start hour one day one! POTUS Trump.

You POTUS Trump fell for a fake fraud PCR-manufacured fake fraud non-pandemic Term one and it costed you. There was no pandemic. ZERO. Many died as a result of OWS, not of the so-called virus (toxin, poison etc.) but because of the lockdowns, the vaccine and mainly the medical management response with isolation, sedation (propofol, ketamines, midazolam, diamorphine, lorazepam etc.), Remdesivir, ventilator.

I have great admiration and regard for POTUS Trump and want him safe and to have a successful Presidency. It is, however, urgent, and it is time you (POTUS Trump) stood up and admitted the truth which is that the OWS and Malone Kariko et al. mRNA vaccine killed people and was ineffective and did not sterilize the virus (did not stop infection or transmission). It is time. Millions and millions await your leadership. I have argued you were headed for Rushmore January 2020, that great of a POTUS, and then the fraud non-pandemic COVID was rolled out. You were misled and conned and I still do think this. So do the right thing and unshackle those you appoint so that they can tell the truth and really go about fixing the wrong we have endured.

Had we done NOTHING, NOTHING, we would have lost far fewer people for it was the actions and OWS etc., the lockdown lunacy that killed most. We brought a fake PCR ‘amplification process for DNA, that was over-cycled and false-positive, to detect NOTHING. Our response was to NOTHING. And we killed in getting there. To NOTHING. All of COVID was a lie, a fraud and we killed innocent people and still continue the lie!

The great body of evidence 5 years now (comparative research studies and high-quality pieces of evidence and reporting judged to be relevant to this analysis) definitively show that OWS and its COVID-19 lockdowns, shelter-in-place policies, masks, mask mandates, school closures, business closures, and all shielding policies etc. did fail, have failed and will always fail, in their purpose of curbing transmission or reducing deaths. You cannot tame a crisis or epidemic etc. for a respiratory virus that breached borders and where there is an animal zoonotic reservoir.

It is and was clear quickly that COVID (or whatever this was) out of the gate, 2 weeks out, was amenable to risk stratification and that age and risk determined your prognosis, that your baseline risk was prognostic on severity of outcome. 2 weeks out. The data was taking shape, and the contours of the crisis was clear. It was clear soon as the vaccine emerged that the vaccine never protected the upper airways and never prevented infections. It failed. Out of the gate. The mRNA technology had been shown to be very unsafe long before it was used as part of COVID. So, why was it brought?

All of the alphabet health agency heads now nominated, as they are confirmed, they must call for the stop and withdrawal (and witnessed destruction) from market, of all mRNA technology vaccines (and related technology and products) (e.g. Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech etc.). The data and evidence are clear. There is no uncertainty as to the lethality of the mRNA shots. The deaths are clear. It must be stopped.

jamiemcintyre on X: “The heartbreaking moment Professor Ian Brighthope breaks down in tears in front of thousands in Perth as he realises that 60 million deadly vaccines have been administered to innocent Australians now causing death and turbo cancer. This is huge. Australia is rising! https://t.co/YFXvAUziFd” / X

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

CDC Epidemiologists Admit Covid ‘Vaccines’ Are Harmful to Young ChildrenTop epidemiological researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have admitted that Covid mRNA “vaccines” are harmful to young children and unborn babies.READ MORE

Schools Can Force-Vaccinate Children Against Parents’ Wishes, State Supreme Court RulesThe Vermont Supreme Court has ruled that schools can force-vaccinate children for Covid against the wishes of their parents.READ MORE

High School Hockey Player Drops Dead Mid-Game After ‘Sudden Medical Event’A New York high school hockey player has tragically died suddenly after suffering a “sudden medical event” in the middle of a game, leaving onlookers horrified.READ MORE

Major Car Manufacturer Nissan on ‘Brink of Collapse,’ Thousands of Jobs at RiskCar manufacturing giant Nissan is reportedly “on the brink of collapse,” putting thousands of American jobs at risk.READ MORE

Melania Trump Takes Inspiration from Jackie Kennedy, Report RevealsFormer and incoming First Lady Melania Trump is one of the most glamorous presidential wives to grace the White House in decades.READ MORE

Elon Musk Polls X Users About Defunding the IRSElon Musk has issued one of his famous polls on X to ask his followers whether the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) should receive its budget request or be defunded.READ MORE

Jack Smith Doomed, Faces ‘Severe Consequences’ over Legal Pursuit of TrumpSpecial Counsel Jack Smith appears to be doomed after pursuing politically motivated cases against President Donald Trump on behalf of the Democrats.READ MORE

Kamala Harris Campaign’s Desperate Ongoing Fundraising Emails Stoke Concerns of Donor BurnoutFailed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s campaign is still fundraising from supporters after burning through $1.5 billion in funds.READ MORE

Joe Biden Pardoned Son Hunter to Save Himself, White House Insider RevealsFollowing the bombshell news that lame-duck President Joe Biden has given his son Hunter a blanket pardon for all crimes, details are beginning to emerge regarding the motivations behind the move.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

President Biden Announces Decision on Pardon for Hunter – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

Trump Reacts to Hunter Biden Pardon: ‘Such an Abuse and Miscarriage of Justice!’ – EVOLRead more…John Bolton Lashes Out at Trump Pick, Invokes Murderous Dictator’s Right-Hand Man – EVOLRead more…JD Vance Delivers the Perfect Response to John Bolton’s Freak-Out Over Kash Patel – EVOLRead more…Lashlee, Swinney hoping for 3 ACC teams in CFP – EVOLRead more…World’s Largest Gold-Producing Nation Finds Deposit Worth $83 Billion, Breaking Record – EVOLRead more…Canada to Strengthen Border After Trump Tariff Threat, Top Official Says – EVOLRead more…Azeez Al-Shaair Incurring Online Wrath For His ‘Free Palestine’ Cleats Following Ejection – EVOLRead more…Owner Of Twinkies Issues Message Directed At Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – EVOLRead more…

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

President Biden Announces Decision on Pardon for HunterPresident Joe Biden and his White House have long said that the president has no plans to pardon his son Hunter, who has been convicted on felony charges. All that changed on Sunday when Biden announced that he had issued a pardon for his son. Despite the repeated assurances that Biden would not pardon his son, it has been reported …READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Reacts to Hunter Biden Pardon: ‘Such an Abuse and Miscarriage of Justice!’President Joe Biden pardoned First Son Hunter Sunday night and basically absolved him of all crimes committed between “January 1, 2014 through December 1, 2024,” in effect letting him not only get off scot-free for the gun charges he was convicted of and the tax evasion charges he pleaded guilty to but any shady international deals he allegedly illicitly profited …READ THE FULL REPORT

Republican Senator explains why he will vote YES for Kash Patel as FBI DirectorPresident Trump’s nomination of Kash Patel as FBI Director was the subject of a lot of news today and CBS Face The Nation was all over it. They had on Senator Bill Hagerty to discuss it and he explained why he’s going to vote yes for Patel’s nomination: WATCH: Senator @BillHagertyTN on Kash appointment: “I’m going to support this appointment. …READ THE FULL REPORT

John Bolton Lashes Out at Trump Pick, Invokes Murderous Dictator’s Right-Hand ManFormer national security adviser John Bolton called for the Senate to reject President-elect Trump’s nomination of Kash Patel for FBI director, even comparing the move to Josef Stalin’s reign of terror. Bolton, who served during the first Trump administration, provided a statement about the pick to NBC News. “Meet the Press” anchor Kristin Welker shared the comment in a post …READ THE FULL REPORT

JD Vance Delivers the Perfect Response to John Bolton’s Freak-Out Over Kash PatelOf all the nominations made by incoming President Donald Trump, few are more important than naming Kash Patel to lead the FBI. The bureau has become a den of corruption focused on protecting itself and the Democratic Party. From targeting parents at school board meetings to raiding Mar-a-Lago, an overhaul is needed, and accountability must be brought to those who …READ THE FULL REPORT

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

Trump Mocks Trudeau, Suggests Making Canada the 51st US StatePresident-elect Trump suggested to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last week that if a tariff for failing to address trade and immigration issues would kill the neighbor to the north’s economy, maybe it should become the 51st state, sources told Fox News. Last Friday, Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago unannounced after Trump threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian products. Specifically, …READ THE FULL REPORT

Biden-Linked Judge Rejects Musk’s ‘Shareholder Approved’ $56 Billion Pay-PackageDelaware Judge Kathaleen McCormick has once again sided against Elon Musk… After ruling against the billionaire in July 2022 when he tried to break his $44 billion contract to buy Twitter, and again in January 2024 when she initially rescinded Musk’s record (but “deeply flawed” according to her) $56 billion performance-based compensation package (determining that Tesla deceived shareholders when the …READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH: Robot dogs seen guarding Mar-a-lagoVideo has just emerged showing robot surveillance dogs on the grounds of Mar-a-lago, watching people and their children as they guard President-elect Trump’s Florida home and resort in Palm Beach, Florida. Watch below: Robot dogs seen patrolling Mar-a-Lago pic.twitter.com/GSn4PO2RJt — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) December 2, 2024 This is an awesome use of technology, especially given the multiple assassination attempts on President-elect …READ THE FULL REPORT

Landlord Claims Hunter Owes Him $300K in Rent — He Tried to Pay with ‘Feces Art’Hunter Biden still owes a Venice Beach, California, landlord more than $300,000 in back pay rent. Shaun Maquire, a partner in San Francisco-based investment firm Sequoia, revealed that Hunter Biden still owes him rent money from 2019-2020. “So what happens to the $300k+ in back pay rent that Hunter Biden owes my family from 2019-2020?” Shaun Maguire said on Sunday …READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Announces Quite the International Trip for This WeekendBack in April 2019, the Notre-Dame de Paris, a Catholic cathedral in France, suffered severe damage due to a fire. With the restoration that has taken place, however, the cathedral is set to open to the public once more on December 8. President-elect Donald Trump, as he announced in a Truth Social post on Monday night, will be in attendance …READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

END

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

Way to go Joe: Your Democrat friends defrauded the election and put you in charge. Now your team has caused a massive mess in the middle east.

US deepens sanctions on Iranian oil as smuggling said to rake in billions for Tehran

US vows to keep targeting ‘shadow fleet’ facilitating petroleum trade; 500,000-750,000 metric tons of fuel oil diverted from Iraqi plants each month to benefit Iran, proxies

By ReutersToday, 6:56

Iranian oil tanker Fortune is anchored at the dock of the El Palito refinery near Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, May 25, 2020. (AP Photo/Ernesto Vargas, File)

The Biden administration on Tuesday ramped up its sanctions on Iran, targeting 35 entities and vessels that it said transported illicit Iranian petroleum to foreign markets as part of what the US Treasury Department called Tehran’s “shadow fleet.”

The sanctions build on those previously imposed on October 11 and came in response to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and to its announced nuclear escalations, the US Department of Treasury said in a statement.

“Iran continues to funnel revenues from its petroleum trade toward the development of its nuclear program, proliferation of its ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology, and sponsorship of its regional terrorist proxies, risking further destabilizing the region,” Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley Smith said in a statement.

“The United States remains committed to disrupting the shadow fleet of vessels and operators that facilitate these illicit activities, using the full range of our tools and authorities,” Smith added.

Such sanctions target key sectors of Iran’s economy with the aim of denying the government funds to support its nuclear and missile programs. The move generally prohibits any US individuals or entities from conducting any business with the targets and freezes any US-held assets.

While the latest sanctions seek to further restrict the export of Iranian oil and fuel, five sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that a sophisticated fuel oil smuggling network that some experts believe generates at least $1 billion a year for Iran and its proxies has flourished in Iraq since Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took office in 2022.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, left, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, right, attend the signing ceremony of Memoranda of Understanding between Iraq and Iran at the government palace in Baghdad, Iraq, September 11, 2024. (Ahmed Jalil/Pool Photo via AP)

The operation exploits a government policy under which Iraq allocates fuel oil to asphalt plants at heavily subsidized prices and involves a network of companies, groups and individuals in Iraq, Iran and Gulf states, according to the five people and three Western intelligence reports, two from August this year and one which was undated.

Under the scheme, anywhere from 500,000 to 750,000 metric tons of heavy fuel oil (HFO), including high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) — equivalent to 3.4 million to 5 million barrels of oil — is diverted from the plants each month and exported, mostly to Asia, two of the sources said.

The extent of the fuel oil smuggling since Sudani came to power and the involvement of multiple entities within Iraq in the illicit trade have not previously been reported.

Iranian and Iraqi officials did not respond to detailed requests for comment about the findings in the Reuters story.

Iran views its neighbor and ally Iraq as an economic lung and wields considerable military, political and economic influence there through the powerful Shiite militias and political parties it backs. It also sources hard currency from Iraq through exports and avoids US sanctions via its banking system, Iraqi and US officials say.

While Baghdad has been delicately balancing its role as an ally of both Washington and Tehran for years, with President-elect Donald Trump expected to take a hard line on Iran’s attempts to skirt US sanctions, its activities in neighboring Iraq are expected to come under increasing scrutiny.

Of the two main routes the fuel oil takes out of Iraq, one involves blending it with similar product from Iran and passing it off as purely Iraqi, helping Tehran evade tough US sanctions on energy exports, said the five sources, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The other involves exporting the fuel oil that was originally meant for the subsidy program using forged documentation to mask its origins.

An oil refinery is seen in the city of Beiji, some 250 kilometers (155 miles) north of Baghdad, Iraq, December 8, 2014. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, File)

Iran benefits directly from the first route. Iranian fuel oil typically sells at a discount due to sanctions but it can sell it for a higher price if it is passed off as Iraqi. The second route, meanwhile, benefits the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq that control the smuggling scheme.

Three sources estimated how much both routes were bringing in based on assumptions about the volumes traded and relative prices. Their estimates ranged from $1 billion a year to over $3 billion.

The illicit trade potentially puts Iraqi institutions and officials at risk of US sanctions for helping Iran and some Iraqi officials are concerned a Trump administration could target them, the three sources said.

However, Iraqi leaders rely heavily on the support of influential Iranian-backed Shiite groups to stay in power, making it difficult for them to crack down on illicit activities, such as the fuel oil smuggling, the sources said.

Sudani’s office did not respond to requests for comment about the trade, the risk of sanctions or government attempts to curb the business.

On Washington’s radar

The lucrative smuggling and its links to Iran and individuals under US sanctions are already on Washington’s radar. The subject came up in discussions between US officials and Sudani when the Iraqi prime minister visited the United States in September, one of the sources said.

Asked by Reuters whether smuggling had been raised, a State Department official said: “While we do not comment on specific discussions, we can affirm the Department has emphasized with our Iraqi counterparts the harms of illicit trade and our support for bringing oil transparently to market.”

The US Treasury did not respond to questions about the fuel oil trade or whether Iraqi entities and officials were at risk of sanctions.

US sanctions on Iran are chiefly in response to its nuclear program and its support for groups across the Middle East that the US sees as terrorist organizations, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA/USA

END

CANADA

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0515 UP 14 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 149.74 UP 0.232 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2649 DOWN .0009

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4040 DOWN 0.0077 (CDN DOLLAR UP 7 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.82 PTS OR 0.44%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 196.03 OR 1.00%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .57%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 196.03 PTS OR 1.00%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.82 PTS OR 0.44%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.57%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 735.84 PTS OR 1.91%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2640.00

silver:$30.85

USA dollar index early TUESDAY  morning: 106.32 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS FROM  MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.496% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.068% UP 0 AND 9/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.755 DOWN 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.247 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.0395 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :   TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0506 UP .0006 OR 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 149.13 DOWN 0.372 OR YEN IS UP 37 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.2690 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts  to 1.4055

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.2852(ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3039)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.74 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.068

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from MONDAY at  4.186% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.359 DOWN 3 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.169 DOWN 4  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2640.60

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.72

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 46/52 PTS OR 0.86%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 83.13 OR 0..42%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 18.53 PTS OR 0.26%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 138.30 OR 1.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 346.17 OR 1.03%

WTI Oil price  69.02 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  73.1212:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  106.88 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  37/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.0395 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2690 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.109 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.97 DOWN 7

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0507 UP 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2670 UP 0.0012 OR 12 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.2420 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.067

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.55 UP 0.037 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4068 UP 0.0022 CDN DOLLAR UP 22 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 69.98

Brent OIL:  73.58

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.235

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.414%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT  4.192

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.143 UP 7 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.005 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 106.33 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.74 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  105.02 UP 1 AND  50/100 roubles

GOLD  2,643.70 3:30 PM

SILVER: 31.03 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 76.47 PTS OR 0.17%

NASDAQ UP 64.72 PTS OR 0.31%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.30 DOWN .04 PTS OR 0.30%

GLD: $243.93 UP 0.49 OR 0.20%

SLV/ $28.28 UP 0.49 OR 1.76%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: UP 45.40 PTS OR 0.18%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING

South Korea Sparks Chaos Across Markets: Crude, Crypto, & Small Caps Wild; Won Lost

Stocks and Bonds chop to South Korea martial law updates ahead of Fed Chair Powell – Newsquawk US Market Wrap

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 04:31 PM

• SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar flat
• REAR VIEW: South Korean President imposes martial law, then reverses decision; JOLTS above expectations; Fed’s Kugler, Daly, Goolsbee keep options open; China bans export of “Dual-use items” to US; US imposes Iran sanctions; Israel/Hezbollah tensions rise; T announces strategic plan; AMZN announces slew of AI updates; MSFT AI software sales & OpenAI deal targeted in FTC probe; Barnier to face no-confidence vote on Wednesday, Macron will not resign before his mandate ends in 2027
• COMING UP: Data: Australian GDP (Q3), US ADP, ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders, Fed Discount Rate Minutes. Events: Fed Discount Rate Minutes; French Government no-confidence motion. Speakers: RBNZ’s Orr, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Powell, Musalem; ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone. Supply: UK.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

• 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
• 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

MARKET WRAP

US equity futures saw pressure in the US morning while T-notes caught a bid after South Korean President Yoon implemented martial law to clear out pro-North Korean elements. The move in stocks had started to pare and once it was clear the law would likely be reversed, with both stocks and bonds paring the initial move as the President and Cabinet ultimately reversed the decision. T-notes went on to settle at lows with the curve steepening as markets still digest the dovish Waller comments from Monday while the initial SK-induced upside was capped by a hotter-than-expected JOLTS print for October. Stocks ultimately finishied mixed with the Nasdaq outperforming while Russell lagged. Sectors were predominantly lower with only Communication Services, Tech and Consumer Discretionary closing green. The Dollar finished flat and traded in a narrow range vs recent sessions with FX price action relatively mundane on Tuesday, except for the KRW. Crude prices were bid with several bullish factors, including concerns around the Israel/Hezbollah truce, expectations of OPEC+ extending supply cuts, refinery outages and fresh Iranian sanctions. Aside from the South Korea updates and JOLTS, the focus was on Fed speak, which saw Kugler, Daly and Goolsbee stick to the script. Meanwhile, China’s MOFCOM announced a ban on exports of “dual use items” relating to gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the US. Elsewhere, France is to hold a no-confidence vote on Wednesday at 15:00GMT/10:00EST.

US

JOLTS: Headline JOLTS rose to 7.744mln, up from the prior 7.372mln, which was revised down from 7.443mln, above the expected 7.475mln but within the forecast range of 7.2-7.9mln. The vacancy rate ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4% (revised down from 4.5%), while the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%. Although the data is for October, analysts at Oxford Economics highlight that the difference between hires and separations lends downside risk to their forecast for a sizable rebound in the November nonfarm employment – noting the data points to a still strong, albeit cooling, labour market.

WILLIAMS: FOMC Vice Chair Williams largely towed a neutral line, stressing optionality based on the data but he does expect more rate cuts to happen over time while monetary policy remains in a restrictive stance. Williams said the economy is in a good place, and the the labour market is solid and in balance. He expects inflation to continue to gradually ebb to 2%, adding that the job market is unlikely to be a source of higher inflation. Williams also provided some forecasts (note, the prev. will be referring to his prior forecasts on 21st November), he sees US GDP at 2.5% this year (prev. 2.5% or a little bit higher for 2024). Unemployment between 4-4.25% over the coming months (prev. unemployment will get to 4.25%). Sees US inflation around 2.25% for 2024 (prev. 2.25% for 2024).

KUGLER: Governor Kugler stated that current Fed policy is well-positioned to deal with uncertainties and she will vigilantly monitor for risks and negative supply shocks that may undo progress in reducing inflation. She stressed that policy is not on a pre-set course and she will make decisions meeting-by-meeting. She stated the US economy is in a good position, the labor market is solid, and inflation appears on a path to 2%. Higher productivity growth and immigration increases have driven surprising, largely desirable economic outcomes. October PCE inflation readings are consistent as of now with a return to the 2% goal, but also show the job is not yet done. She noted the trade policy under the incoming administration and Congress may affect productivity and prices but it is too soon to judge. Kugler said a continuation of disinflation and a modest job market cooling show the Fed goals are roughly in balance. She stated that rate cuts so far were steps in removing policy restraint as the Fed is in the process of moving policy toward a more neutral setting.

DALY (2024 voter): The San Francisco Fed President said the US economy is in a really good place, adding that a December rate cut is absolutely not off the table. Daly said the timing of the rate cut is up for debate, and that they need to keep moving the policy rate down and need to keep an open mind. She knew inflation would be a bumpy ride, but it is moving down gradually, but there is still more work to do. Even if the Fed does another rate cut, policy will remain restrictive. Daly acknowledged the neutral rate is closer to 3% (Fed median is 2.9%), noting they can take their time getting too neutral. Daly added the Fed will continue to have restrictive policy until inflation gets to 2% and she does not see any reason for a rate hike, and the trajectory of change is down. On Trump policies, said that trade issues do not usually derail growth, the economy adjusts. She is prepared to assess things but needs to see policies before the Fed reacts.

FIXED INCOME

T-NOTE (H5) FUTURES SETTLED 4+ TICKS LOWER AT 110-31

T-Notes were choppy in the wake of Fed’s Waller, SK implementing Martial Law (and reversing it) while JOLTS printed above expectations. At settlement, 2s -2.9bps at 4.169%, 3s -1.0bps at 4.130%, 5s +1.3bps at 4.106%, 7s +2.4bps at 4.165%, 10s +2.9bps at 4.223%, 20s +3.3bps at 4.490%, 30s +3.8bps at 4.396%.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI +3.8bps at 2.391%, 10yr BEI +3.0bps at 2.295%, 30yr BEI +2.5bps at 2.247%.

THE DAY: T-notes saw two-wag price action with selling pressure observed overnight before rallying in US trade in a haven bid after the South Korean President implemented martial law to clear out pro-North Korea elements. T-note futures peaked at 111-11 in response to the news with the upside capped after the hotter-than-expected JOLTS print. Further pressure was observed in T-notes with a swath of calls emerging for the South Korean Martial law to be reversed. Once it became clearer the law was going to be reverted, and with the President and Cabinet ultimately approving its reversal, T-notes completely pared the South Korea-induced upside to hit a low of 110-29+. T-notes settled at lows with the curve steepening as the market continues to digest the dovish commentary from Fed’s Waller on Monday night ahead of Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and NFP on Friday with traders looking to both to garner Fed expectations for December, which is currently pricing in a 72% probability of a 25bps cut, with the remaining 28% implying an unchanged decision.

STIRS/OPERATIONS

• Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: December 18bps (prev. 19bps), January 24bps (prev. 23bps), March 40bps (prev. 37bps).
• US sold USD 75bln in 42day CMBs at high rate of 4.400%, B/C 3.00x
• US is to sell USD 64bln 17-wk bills on December 4th; to sell USD 85bln of 4-wk bills and USD 80bln of 8-wk bills on December 5th; all to settle on Dec 10th
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 162bln (prev. 136bln) across 65 counterparties (prev. 56).
• SOFR at 4.64% (prev. 4.59%), volumes at USD 2.440tln (prev. 2.209tln).
• EFFR at 4.58% (prev. 4.58%), volumes at USD 92bln (prev. 95bln).

CRUDE

WTI (F5) SETTLED USD 1.84 HIGHER AT 69.94/BBL; BRENT (F5) SETTLED USD 1.79 HIGHER AT USD 73.62/BBL

The crude complex saw gains as it was buoyed by numerous bullish factors such as concerns surrounding Israel/Hezbollah truce, expectations of OPEC+ extending supply cuts, refinery outages and fresh Iranian sanctions. Throughout the US session WTI and Brent saw gains to settle around highs, after seeing earlier lows of 67.91/bbl and 71.68/bbl in the EZ morning. Newsflow was supportive as Bloomberg source reports noted that OPEC+ is firming up a deal for a 3-month output hike delay, while in the Middle East Lebanon’s ceasefire is looking increasingly tense with Israeli PM Netanyahu pledging a strong response after Hezbollah violations. Upside was also observed after the US Treasury announced it is imposing sanctions on 35 entities and vessels that play a critical role in transporting illicit Iranian petroleum to foreign markets. Regarding refineries, Iraq halted operations at Basra (280k BPD) and Exxon’s Joliet refinery (275k BPD) reported a unit upset. Ahead, private inventory data after-hours is the next risk event whereby current expectations are (bbls): Crude -0.7mln, Distillate +0.9mln, Gasoline +0.6mln.

Bank commentary: JPMorgan said Brent crude oil price is projected to average USD 80/bbl in 2024, and added “our price forecast calls for Brent oil to average USD 61/bbl, with WTI at USD 57/bbl in 2026”. Separately, Bank of America stated a looming surplus of 0.8mln BPD should result in Brent and WTI prices averaging just USD 65/bbl and USD 61/bbl in 2025, respectively, while downside risks include a trade war or an OPEC+ price war and upside risks come from the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine.

EQUITIES

CLOSES: SPX +0.05% at 6,050, NDX +0.31% at 21,229, DJIA -0.17% at 44,706, RUT -0.73% at 2,416

SECTORS: Utilities -0.88%, Financials -0.75%, Industrials -0.65%, Real Estate -0.61%, Consumer Staples -0.46%, Materials -0.33%, Health -0.19%, Energy -0.05%, Consumer Discretionary +0.13%, Technology +0.56%, Communication Services +1.12%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX: +0.51% at 20,035, FTSE 100: +0.56% at 8,359, CAC 40: +0.26% at 7,255, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.64% at 4,878, AEX: +0.26% at 890, IBEX 35: +1.18% at 11,874, FTSE MIB: +1.03% at 33,829, SMI: -0.04% at 11,824, PSI: +0.68% at 6,406.

STOCK SPECIFICS

• Nvidia (NVDA): CFO said M&A could be a potential use for their growing cash; Blackwell volumes initially small, expect to scale throughout the year.
• Amazon (AMZN): Announced supercomputer and new server powered by homegrown AI chips, according to WSJ; exec said Trainium3 chip coming next year and made with 3nm technology; Apple (AAPL) says it plans to use the AWS Trainium chips; Expected to be available in late 2025.
• Intel (INTC): Reportedly approached Marvell’s (MRVL) Murphy in search for its next CEO, according to Bloomberg.
• Nebius Group (NBIS): Citron Reasearch positive on the stock. “A sleeper with no analyst coverage yet, the market hasn’t caught on to its massive potential—or its undervaluation vs. CoreWeave. If it trades at a 50% discount to Coreweave multiple that puts $NBIS at $60 (napkin math)”.
• Deere (DE): Raised quarterly dividend to USD 1.62/shr (prev. 1.47/shr).
• Zscaler (ZS): Next quarter outlook disappointed despite EPS and revenue beating.
• US Steel (X): US President-elect Trump has reiterated his opposition to Nippon Steel’s planned USD 15bln acquisition of US Steel, calling it harmful to American industry.
• AT&T (T): Authorised the repurchase of roughly USD 10bln in shares, although FY25 guidance underwhelmed
• Microsoft (MSFT): Faces a UK lawsuit over cloud computing licenses; British businesses/organisations could collectively be owned more than GBP 1bln in compensation.
• Bill Holdings (BILL): Offering USD 1.0bln in convertible senior notes due 2030.
• Tesla (TSLA): A Delaware judge has ruled against Elon Musk’s USD 56bln pay package from Tesla, despite a June shareholder vote to reinstate it.
• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): Announced launch of convertible senior notes offering USD 1bln due 2030.
• CVS Health (CVS): Mulls selling up to USD 2.5bln in bonds and the Co. is also buying back up to USD 2bln of Aetna and CVS notes.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO): Novo’s India executive is advocating for an early 2025 launch of Wegovy, fearing loss of competitive advantage to rival Eli Lilly,
• Kroger (KR): Upgraded at Jefferies; sees a path to double-digit earnings and 30%-plus FCF accretion potential via right-sizing of Albertsons’ working capital if the Albertsons (ACI) deal closes.
• FedEx (FDX): Downgraded at Bernstein; said it is taking a “tactical pause” and downgrading the shares ahead of a “widely expected reset” in the near-term guidance framework and uncertainty around meeting “high” freight spinoff expectations.

US FX WRAP

The dollar index was ultimately flat on Tuesday while swings were to a lesser extent relative to recent weeks. Fed’s Waller’s remarks late on Monday, (leaning towards a cut in December meeting) sparked gains in T-Notes, specifically in the 2yr, likely allowing the buck to take a breather. Gains in treasuries extended on South Korea’s President enacting martial law, albeit, modest moves were soon in the buck, with DXY slipping modestly. Concerning JOLTS, October’s figure was 7.475mln, above the expected 7.44mln, jumping from a downwardly revised Sept figure of 7.372mln, paving the way for a bounce in the Dollar, although, limited. Separately, Fed’s Daly said a December rate cut is absolutely not off the table (MM price 70% chance of 25bps cut), and believes the neutral rate is closer to 3% (Fed’s Median is 2.9%). Meanwhile, Kugler said October’s PCE inflation showed the job is not yet done on the 2% goal. Next on the pipeline, is ADP (exp 150k prev. 233k), Factory Orders (Oct, exp. 0.2%), ISM Services PMI (exp. 55.5, prev. 56); Fed’s Chair Powell, Fed Discount Rate minutes and Beige book.

Major peers were slightly stronger against the buck on Wednesday, led by JPY, GBP, and EUR, while the Loonie underperformed with minimal downside. Direct newsflow was fairly light, except for the Euro (detailed below). For the Pound and Antipodes, macro updates pick up on Wed, with BoE Bailey & UK S&P PMI (Nov) due; Australian Real GDP (Q3) and RBNZ’s Governor Orr.

The Euro saw two-way price action on French PM woes, with the cross climbing back above 1.05 to a peak of 1.0535 before paring back to the round level. The latest reports note a no-confidence vote is to take place at 15:00 GMT on Wednesday in PM Barnier’s government, where Barnier is expected to lose. Thereafter, President Macron could call a Presidential election or attempt to find another PM to form a majority around to deliver fiscal reform. Given later remarks from Macron (will not resign before his mandate ends in 2027), the latter is the expected scenario to play out. That said, Macro said he believes Le Pen will not join the left to topple the Government. For a more in-depth analysis of the outcomes, please click here for a Newsquawk preview. Elsewhere, data was thin in Europe, with updates coming from ECB’s Kazaks who echoed a data-dependent approach while Holzmann sees the likelihood of a moderate rate cut in December. Going forward, a series of Europe PMI data (Nov) is on the schedule (Italy, France, Germany, EZ) as well as EZ PPI (Oct).

Havens benefited from the tensions surrounding the South Korean parliament, with JPY, CHF, and XAU gaining, but ultimately heading into APAC trade rather flat. On the Franc, a muted reaction was seen to the CPI report for November, where deflation was as expected on the monthly print, but the Y/Y was slightly cooler than expectations, 0.7% (exp. 0.8%). That said, other vendors had forecasted 0.7%, perhaps explaining the inertia at the time in USD/CHF. Rabobank notes that even if contagion is avoided (France’s political/budget crisis), France’s high debt burden, stagnation in Germany and risks posed to the Eurozone from Trump tariffs suggest scope for further appreciation of the CHF vs. the EUR; “We see scope for a move to EUR/CHF 0.92 on a 6-month view”.

EMFX: KRW was hit on South Korea’s President Yoon declaring martial law, aiming to clear out pro-North Korea elements. Thereafter the Parliament voted to block the President’s material law declaration. Later on, President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted martial law (military officials wouldn’t budge until this occurred), with the cabinet shortly after agreeing. USD/KRW trimmed the majority of gains, with BoK officials noting they are preparing ample measures to stabilize the market if needed, and will make messages after meetings.

Regarding data, Turkish CPI was hotter than expected on both fronts, yet USD/TRY still crept higher. Meanwhile, BRL was firmer after remarks were seen from Brazil’s Treasury Secretary Ceron said they are on track to meet the fiscal target for 2024; GDP Y/Y (Q3) was slightly above the St. consensus; Industrial Output (Oct) lies ahead on Wednesday. Moreover in LatAm, Mexico outperformed with modest gains after the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 2.5% (exp 2.9%, prev. 2.9%).

MORNING TRADING

II USA DATA

garbage data

Job Opening Unexpectedly Surge With Biggest Increase in 14 Months; Quits Also Soar

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 10:36 AM

After last month’s catastrophic JOLTS report, which was a disaster across the board, and which was meant to give the Fed a green light to cut rates more after Biden won the election (which he didn’t, but the Fed still had to cut even if Trump is now in control), some speculated that Biden’s Department of Labor will do everything in its power to sabotage further rate cuts by the Fed, most notably the upcoming December decision in two weeks time, by pushing out much stronger than expected economic data. That’s precisely what happened moments ago when the DOL reported that in October, the number of job openings in the US soared by a whopping 372K, the biggest monthly increase since August 2023, to 7.744 million from 7.372 million.

The JOLTS print smashed the median estimate of 7.519 million by 225K…

… with just 4 analysts (out of 28) predicting a higher job openings number.

According to the DOL, the job openings rate, at 4.6 percent, changed little over the month. The number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+209,000), accommodation and food services (+162,000), and information (+87,000) but decreased in federal government (-26,000).

Amusingly, after we mocked two months ago the stunning surge in construction job openings just as a record chasm had opened between the manipulated number of construction jobs and openings…

… which meant the biggest monthly surge in construction job openings on record at a time when the housing market has effectively frozen thanks to sky high interest rates, a simply glorious paradox of manipulated bullshit data…

… the BLS realized that it had to make an adjustment after getting called out, and Construction Job openings dropped by another 9K to 249K and back to post-covid lows. Oh, and yes, the number of “construction jobs” is about to fall off a cliff just as soon as Orange Man Bad enters the White House.

Setting the glaring data manipulation aside, in the context of the broader jobs report, in October the number of job openings was 770K more than the number of unemployed workers, an increase from the previous month and not too far from inverting once again, similar to what happened during the covid crash.

But while the job openings surge was a surprising reversal of the deteriorating trend observed for much of 2024, where even the DOL was stumped was the number of hires, which tumbled from 5.582 million to 5.313 million, a new post-covid low.

Commenting on the plunge, SouthBay Research notes that “hiring was weak in October and the last time hiring was this low was June and NFP slowed to 118K. But remember that this data aligns with the October Payroll data – not November’s.  Both October NFP and the latest October JOLTS Hiring data cover the same period (through mid-October).” Furthermore, there were an additional 4 weeks since this JOLTS survey and hurricane recovery (aka hiring) rebounded. In addition, as the Job Openings indicate, employer intent to hire was already underway when this survey was completed.

Meanwhile, the drop in hiring was offset by a surprise spike in the number of Quits, which rose by 228K from 3.098MM to 3.326MM, the biggest increase since May 2023, with quits increasing in accommodation and food services (+90,000).

Finally, no matter what the “data” shows, let’s not forget that it is all just estimated, and it is safe to say that the real number of job openings remains still far lower since half of it – or some 70% to be specific – is guesswork. As the BLS itself admits, while the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate remains near a record low 33%

In other words, more than two thirds, or 67% of the final number of job openings, is made up!

Looking ahead to Friday’s November Nonfarm Payrolls, the report will be driven by hurricane recovery, with the JOLTS data pointing to a lot of weakness in exactly the areas October Payrolls slipped. As for organic hiring, there have been no anecdotal signs of hiring pullback heading into November. On the contrary: businesses seem to be inclined to ramp up a bit, now that Trump is president and promises a dramatic easing of regulations.

END

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

“Already Pretty Far Down The Line”: The Container Store Could File For Bankruptcy As Soon As Next Year

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 06:55 AM

As the retail apocalypse that started with Amazon and e-commerce continues, the latest victim is The Container Store.

The retail giant could file for bankruptcy as soon as next year, according to the New York Post, who said the retailer is blaming its recent descent on “a weak housing market and inflated prices” hurting sales.

The chain, based in Coppell, Texas, saw a pandemic-driven surge in 2020 and 2021 as homebound consumers, inspired by Marie Kondo’s Netflix show, embraced decluttering.

However, a sluggish housing market and persistent inflation have curbed moves, home renovations, and discretionary spending, shrinking demand for storage products. Or, in other words, people simply have less money for crap nowadays. 

The Post reported that the Container Store faces a “high probability” of bankruptcy next year, according to Tim Hynes, global head of credit research at Debtwire, following the path of retailers like Big Lots and LL Flooring.

Amid a record wave of store closures predicted this year by Coresight Research, The Container Store has shown signs of distress. In May, it suspended its earnings outlook and began a strategic review to address declining performance. In its latest quarter ending September 28, sales dropped 10.5%, with losses totaling $30.8 million.

A potential $40 million lifeline from Beyond, owner of Bed Bath & Beyond and Overstock.com, to stock Bed Bath & Beyond products appears in jeopardy. Last week, Bed Bath & Beyond hinted the deal might collapse, citing The Container Store’s inability to meet financing conditions.

Hynes said: “I don’t see any dramatic increase in holiday sales that will change the situation. They are already pretty far down the line.”

Incidentally, this also means a lot of bored housewives could be looking for new ‘projects’ heading into the New Year, so stay out of their way…

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

KING REPORT

The King Report December 3, 2024 Issue 7382

Independent View of the News

Fangs soared on Monday while most of the general stock market declined.  Gold and Bitcoin declined moderately; the dollar soared; USZs rallied 12/32.   Near 12:15 ET, Broadcom +3.59%, Meta +3.25%, Microsoft +1.81%, Google +1.63%   Bloomberg: Social media postings about Broadcom, Inc. quadrupled in the past half hour, and Twitter sentiment is somewhat positive… 10:14 ET.   In other words, table talk on social media drove AVGO and other Fangs higher.  Yes, Virginia, this is a characteristic of a bubble!  Yet, PE Powell an his ilk cannot or will not admit to fostering a bubble. ESZs opened modesty higher on Sunday night and immediately commenced a decline that took ESZs to a daily low of 6036.00 at 1:38 ET.  A plodding rally then appeared.  After the 7 ET US repo market opening, someone started aggressively buying ESZs.  The pump & dump was on!   ESZs surged to 6062.00 (then a daily high) at 9:34 ET.  The dump then commenced; ESZs slid to 6049.75 at 9:55 ET.  Dip buyers then got busy.  ESZs jumped to 6061.25 at 9:41 ET.  Another selling bout pushed ESZs down to 6050.00 at 10:55 ET.  The manipulation for the European close forced ESZs to a daily high of 6065.00 at 12:08 ET.  After a series of failures to push ESZs above 6065.00, selling appeared.  ESZs then eased lower, finally hitting a bottom of 6056.00 at 14:22 ET.   The late rally took ESZs to a daily high of 6068.50 at 15:28 ET.  Alas, there were few organic buyers to start December; ESZs slid to 6059.75 at 15:48 ET.  ESZs then waffled in a tight range into the close.   Except for Black Friday, SPY (S&P 500 Index ETF) had its lowest volume of 2024.    Positive aspects of previous session Fangs soared on the usual suspects’ buying. USZs rallied modestly; the dollar rallied sharply. Gold and Bitcoin declined smartly. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq hit new intraday and closing highs.   Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline rallied sharply (but oil fell 0.02 cents) The DJIA and DJTA declined; the session was lackluster ex-the Fang orgy. The S&P 500 Index had a range of only 18 handles.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session With the end of short-term upward seasonality, is a short-term top developing?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6045.35 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6053.58; 6035.33   Trump promises ‘hell to pay’ in Middle East if hostages are not released before he takes office Trump’s threat came days after Hamas released a video showing an Israeli-American hostage pleading for his release  ttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-promises-hell-to-pay-middle-east-hostages-not-released-takes-office   Today – Traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday in the general stock market.  However, stocks look extremely tired and are historically overbought.  The Fang surge on Monday was largely the work of traders, of various class, that run to Fangs when there is no compelling theme or reason to buy stocks.   Expected economic data: Oct JOLTS Job Openings 7.47m; Nov Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.0m; Fed Gov. Kugler 12:35 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 15:45 ET   ESZs are +1.00; NQZs are +2.50; and USZs are -1/32 at 21:40 ET.   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5846; 100-day MA: 5682; 150-day MA: 5572; 200-day MA: 5460 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,991; 100-day MA: 41,797; 150-day MA: 40,886; 200-day MA: 40,360 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (6047.15 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5220.07 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5650.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5937.93 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6023.74 triggers a sell signal   President Biden bypassed the Justice Department’s Pardon Office to pardon his son, Biden has relied on the pardon office for every other act of clemency – CNN   “Corrupt to the Core”: Dems in Disarray over Hunter Pardon as ‘Rule of Law’ Narrative Implodes https://www.zerohedge.com/political/flashback-false-democrat-narrative-respect-rule-law-exposed   Adam Schiff in 2018 Suggested Pardoning a President’s Son Could Be an Effort to Obstruct Justice https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/12/02/adam-schiff-2018-suggested-pardoning-presidents-son-could-be-effort-obstruct-justice/   @JackPosobiec: Over Thanksgiving, Hunter told his father about a book he was writing that would go public with everything. Days later, his father signed a blanket pardon – per WH official.      @MonicaCrowley: Hunter running a blackmail op on his old man is a perfect end to the Biden “presidency”   We always knew Joe Biden would pardon troubled son Hunter — it’s totally on brand for the president to break another promise to the American people https://t.co/rs6uH5P1Op   We haven’t seen a pardon as sweeping as Hunter Biden’s in generations   The “full and unconditional” pardon is aimed at protecting the president’s son from future prosecution by the Trump Justice Department… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/02/hunter-biden-pardon-nixon-00192101   @BuckSexton: Hunter’s pardon is the most recent reminder that Joe Biden has been an unrepentant liar for 50 years and is completely devoid of any ethics whatsoever.   Reportedly, The Big Guy is preparing more pardons.  You can bet his brother Jim, Joe’s granddaughter, other Biden family members, and their cronies will get pardons.  The GOP must be elated with this political windfall before they take control of DC in January.   @seanmdav: The 2014 start date of the pardon is the confession: that was when the Biden family and the regime overthrew Ukraine’s government so the country could be used as the base for the regime’s Eurasian money-laundering activities.   GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: This is an outrageous abuse of the rule of law – all to protect the Biden family business of selling access & influence.   @joelpollak: Joe Biden was always a crook. Lawfare Democrats impeached Trump for trying to investigate what Biden basically just pardoned Hunter for doing.   @YossiGestetner: By giving Hunter a blanket pardon for the last 10 years, Joe Biden is acknowledging that his DOJ gave Hunter passes on crimes that a non-politicized DOJ would have prosecuted and successfully. Funny coming after years of Biden Lackeys claimed that Hunter did nothing major.   @EMPOWR_: IRS Whistleblowers Supervisory Special Agent Gary Shapley and Special Agent Joe Ziegler made the following statement after President Biden pardoned his son, Hunter Biden.    “No amount of lies or spin can hide the simple truth that the Justice Department nearly let the President’s son off the hook for multiple felonies. We did our duty, told the truth, and followed the law. Anyone reading the President’s excuses now should remember that Hunter Biden admitted to his tax crimes in federal court, that Hunter Biden’s attorneys have targeted us for our lawful whistleblower disclosures, and that we are suing one of those attorneys for smearing us with false accusations.    “President Biden has the power to put his thumb on the scales of justice for his son, but at least he had to do it with a pardon explicitly for all the world to see rather than his political appointees doing it secretly behind the scenes. Either way it is a sad day for law abiding taxpayers to witness this special privilege for the powerful.”   Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: There won’t be any – no press briefing for the next few days. Biden issued the pardon before jetting to Angola late tonight. KJP will take questions on Air Force 1 en route, but off-camera…. (Not only are The Big Guy and his team liars, but they are also cowards!)   GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: The Biden DOJ tried to give Hunter a corrupt sweetheart deal that was only stopped when the judge asked questions. This entire ordeal has been an affront to the rule of law.   @JackPosobiec: Joe Biden’s blanket pardon of Hunter covers the entire period of the 2014 CIA coup in Ukraine when Hunter was appointed to the board of a Ukrainian gas company.  This means he can’t be investigated for any criminal activity during this timeframe.  Are you paying attention yet?   GOP Sen. @BasedMikeLee: I look forward to Hunter Biden testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee.  I want to know the answer to an important question: who is “the big guy”?   @MHowellTweets: There’s a ton to be said on the Hunter pardon, but for now: The real worrisome part about the undeniable fact that the First Family (not just Hunter!) was so flamboyantly corrupt was that the entirety of the government legal and intelligence apparatus worked overtime to let it go.  And they did it for a very long time and turned themselves into pretzels to keep doing it again.     All while doing the exact opposite on contrived and sometimes legitimately insane plots against Trump and those who supported him.  Major systems level damage was done to the integrity of the whole system.  So many will want to move on to the next thing but if not addressed, we are in a world of long term trouble.  The Bidens clearly belong in the history books as an asterisked blight, but the story is so much bigger than just them.  When they exit, it doesn’t just get resolved naturally.   @TomFitton: President Biden arguably overstepped his constitutional authority by issuing an unusual blanket pardon to Hunter Biden for any and all offenses (known and unknown) for a ten-year time period (up until yesterday!).  (After DJT is inaugurated, the blanket pardon might be challenged in court.)   @AlexanderPayton: The pardon power is discussed in Federalist No. 74. Hamilton argued that the Presidential pardon was necessary for several reasons (mercy, etc) but specifically for insurrections and rebellions, to allow the President to restore peace and prevent prolonged conflict.   CNN: Democrats left fuming over Biden’s decision to pardon his son — after he repeatedly said he wouldn’t   https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/02/politics/biden-allies-disappointed-pardon/index.html   Polling guru Nate Silver blasts Biden as ‘selfish and senile old man’ for pardoning Hunter Silver — who said he voted for Biden’s successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the 2024 election — also told voters to boycott every Democrat everyone who doesn’t disagree with Biden’s pardon over the next two days. “Don’t vote for any Democrat in 2028 who doesn’t repudiate the pardon within 48 hours,” the enraged polling Nostradamus wrote… “Biden’s stubborn insistence on running for reelection was perhaps the singular most important factor in Trump 2.0, and now he’s kicking salt in the wound of the party brand he helped to destroy,” Silver wrote… https://trib.al/VY1eSOR   NBC: The president has discussed pardoning his son with some of his closest aides at least since Hunter Biden’s conviction in June, said two people with direct knowledge of the discussions about the matter. They said it was decided at the time that he would publicly say he would not pardon his son even though doing so remained on the table… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/joe-biden-issue-pardon-son-hunter-biden-rcna182369   @LeadingReport: Kamala Harris first candidate since 1932 to not flip a single county.

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Special Counsel Rejects Hunter Biden’s Pardon, Files Scathing Rebuke In Court Case

Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 04:36 PM

Last night Hunter Biden’s lawyers filed a motion to dismiss his California tax fraud case after Joe Biden issued a blanket pardon absolving him of all crimes committed over a 10 year period.

“The President’s pardon moots Mr. Biden’s pending and yet to occur sentencing and entry of judgment in this case and requires an automatic dismissal of the Indictment with prejudice,” wrote Hunter’s lawyer Abbe Lowell in the filing, adding that “this Court must dismiss the Indictment against Mr. Biden with prejudice and adjourn all future proceedings in this matter.”

Special Counsel David Weiss isn’t having it. In a Monday response in opposition, Weiss argued that “The defendant’s motion should be denied since there is no binding authority on this Court which requires dismissal.”

“As a matter of past-practice in this district, courts do not dismiss indictments when pardons are granted,” Weiss wrote – citing cases involving Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Joe Arpaio and Ollie North, Above the Law reports. “Instead, it has been the practice of this court that once an Executive Grant of Clemency has been filed on the docket, the docket is marked closed, the disposition entry is updated to reflect the executive grant of clemency, and no further action is taken by the Court.”

Although Weiss purported not to have seen the pardon itself (which Lowell inexplicably failed to docket), he took particular umbrage at the suggestion that the prosecution was politically motivated, huffing that “The court similarly found [Biden’s] vindictive prosecution claims unmoored from any evidence or even a coherent theory as to vindictiveness.”

Judge Mark Scarsi of the Central District of California has taken no action, thus far. But in Delaware, Judge Maryellen Noreika said in a minute order that she intends to terminate the proceedings, and instructing the government to say by tomorrow if it objects to termination by dismissal. Presumably it does, although no objection has hit the docket as of this writing. -Above the Law

Hunter pleaded guilty to the tax charges earlier this year, after a Delaware jury found him guilty of lying about his drug use on a background check form used to purchase a firearm. 

In Weiss’ new filing, he writes:

“The defendant did not docket the pardon nor has the government seen it. If media reports are accurate, the Government does not challenge that the defendant has been the recipient of an act of mercy. But that does not mean the grand jury’s decision to charge him, based on a finding of probable cause, should be wiped away as if it never occurred. It also does not mean that his charges should be wiped away because the defendant falsely claimed that the charges were the result of some improper motive. No court has agreed with the defendant on these baseless claims, and his request to dismiss the indictment finds no support in the law or the practice of this district.”

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY