NOV 4/GOLD CLOSED UP $6.15 TO $2651.95//SILVER HAD ANOTHER GOOD DAY UP $0.26 TO $31.28//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $12.55 TO $944.35 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSSED UP $4.30 TO $982.40//RUSSIAN SHIP FIRES ON GERMAN PLANE IN OPEN BALTIC WATERS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS/ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH AND SYRIAN REBELS VS TURKEY/IRAN IRAQI PROXIES; MANY UPDATESS///RUSSIAN VS UKRAINE UPDATES/CUBA GOES DARK AGAIN/USA DATA: ADP PRIVATE JOBS REPORT SHOWS ECONOMY SINKING//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
072 H GOLDMAN 1 099 H DB AG 66 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 4 118 H MACQUARIE FUT 760 132 C SG AMERICAS 39 190 H BMO CAPITAL 57 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 261 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 15 555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 48 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 109 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 18 661 C JP MORGAN 28 661 H JP MORGAN 57 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 38 59 690 C ABN AMRO 16 19 732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 9 737 C ADVANTAGE 9 15 880 C CITIGROUP 17 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 824 824
JPMorgan stopped 85/824
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 824 NOTICES FOR 82,400 OZ 2.562 TONNES
total notices so far: 16,401 contracts for 1,640,100 Oz (51.013 tonnes)
FOR DEC
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6455 for 32.275 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $6.15 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.26 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.718 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED1509CONTRACTS TO 134,074 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.59 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 3459 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.59 IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS BUT THEY FAILED TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN OF 59 CENTS.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1959 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 493 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 3459 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY’S COMEX SESSION
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX AND THAT THAT CONTINUED ON MONDAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG 493 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.59) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE 1959 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (NOV 29) THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE BY THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER BE DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! THERE WAS NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED TUESDAY NIGHT (WHAT A RELIEF). HOWEVER WE DID HAVE A HUGE 47 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE GUYS WILL TAKE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER THERE.
// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC REDUCES TO 36.670 MILLION OZ + .66 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 37.33 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN ( MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION +//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 493 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A LARGE 205 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3DAYS, total 3469 contracts: OR 17.345 MILLION OZ (1156 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 17.345 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 17.345 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1509 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.59 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1959 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 40.435 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.235 MILLION OZ EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON TO WHICH WE ADD .66 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL; 37.33 MILLION OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 37.33 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3459 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 493 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON TUESDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (493) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2757 OI CONTRACTS TO 462,040 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A FAIR SIZED 103 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (2657 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $10.30 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 55.169 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY TUESDAY’S HUGE 315 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 31500 OZ (0.9797 TONNES OF GOLD). THIS TOTALS 54.161 TONNES AND FROM THAT WE MUST ADD SATURDAY’S ISSUANCE OF .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK AND THEN TODAY’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.919 TONNES//NEW STANDING 56.8676 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DEC: 56.8876 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $10.30 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6360 OI CONTRACTS (19.78 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 315 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY ALONG WITH THE .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK “DELIVERY” ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN TODAY’S ISSUANCE OF 1.919 TONNES (EX. FOR RISK)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3703 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 462,143
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6360 CONTRACTS WITH 2657 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3703 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6360 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1124 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY. THEY FAILED TUESDAY WITH GOLD’S PRICE RISE.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3703 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 2657 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6360 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.169 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 31,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK PRIOR AND THEN TODAY’S ISSUANCE OF 1.919 TONNES//NEW STANDING RISES TO 56.8576 TONNES
//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 56.8576 TONNES
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE TUESDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS AS WE HAD A STRONG $10.30 PRICE GAIN .WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1124 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///HUGE 315 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 31,500 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 13,507 CONTRACTS OF 1,350,700 OZ OR 42.012 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4502 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 42.012 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 42.012 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.18% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 42.012 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1509 CONTRACTS OI TO 133,929 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1050 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1959 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1959 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1509 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1959 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3459 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 19.78 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.59 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.16 PTS OR 0.42%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.02%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 27.53 OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2805 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2807// Oil UP TO 69.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.72 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED2657 CONTRACTS TO 462,040 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW WE HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3703). THUS A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6360 CONTRACTS AND THEREFORE NO LOSS IN NET LONGS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 201 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN ON A MODERATE SCALE YESTERDAY.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3703 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 3703 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3703 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6360 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3703 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2657 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.30 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A NORMAL SIZED SIZED 1124 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON LAST FRIDAY.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (56.8576 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 54.161 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR + 1.919 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY /NEW TOTAL 56.8676 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $10,30/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN PRICE WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE DID HAVE SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A NORMAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, TUESDAY EVENING OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES) THUS BOTH OF THESE WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING DELIVERED UPON.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 20.100 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 31500 OZ OR 0.9797 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN OUR NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.919 TONNES ISSUED LAST NIGHT
/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 56.8676 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 56.8676 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $10.30
WE HAD 103 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6360 CONTRACTS OR 636,000 (19.78 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 150,833 contracts: poor //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A LESSAER EXTENT.
9 GOOD LONDON DELIVERY BARS “ON DEPOSIT” FROM LONDON. BARS NEVER LEAVE LONDON.
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
NIL OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
4,147.479 OZ 129 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today
824notice(s) 82400 OZ 2.562 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
1012 contracts 101,200 OZ 3.1477 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16,401 notices 1,540,100 oz 51.013 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 1 customer deposit
I) from JPMorgan: 4147.479 oz
total deposits 4147.479 oz
withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks 45,529.45 oz
ii) Out of Brinks enhanced: 3879.544 oz
(9 London good delivery bars of 400 oz plus per bar.)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 49,408.594 oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1836 contracts having LOST 436 contracts. We had
751 contracts served on TUESDAY, so we GAINED a massive 315 contracts or 31,500 oz underwent a queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold.
JANUARY lost 21 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 2161
FEBRUARY GAINED 2422 CONTRACTS TO 359,093 .
We had 824 contracts filed for today representing 82,400 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 824 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and85 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,401 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1836 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (824 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,713,900 OZ OR 53.309 TONNES. to which we add .7776 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total: 54.0866 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,401 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1836 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (824 x 100 oz which equals 1,713,900 oz (51.913 TONNES) + .776 tonnes of ex. for risk PRIOR + 1.919 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY//new total 56.8576 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 56.8576 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,829,095.605 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,975,826.278/// 248.08 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,853,269.377 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,222,115 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 193.53 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 111.737 tonnes and thus 30.24% of entire inventory.
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 3. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE DEC 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
179,607.270 OZ
CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1064.55 Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (0.00 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
879 contracts (4.395 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
6455 Contracts (32.275 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits
i) Into Brinks: 1064.55 oz
total customer deposits 1064.55 oz
We had 1 withdrawals
i) out of CNT 179,607.270 oz
total withdrawal 179,607.270 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/306.541million or 43.84%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.517MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.841 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 879 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 200 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
153 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON MONDAY SO WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 47 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (.235 MILLION OZ) WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THE LONDON SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ASSESSED THAT THERE WAS NO PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE SO THEY HAVE TRIED THEIR LUCK ON TAKING DELIVERY IN LONDON. YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT WE HAVE A LACK OF SILVER OVER HERE BY THE ZERO NOTICES FILED FOR DELIVERY LAST NIGHT.
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 80 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2340
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 23
MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 1967 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,492
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for 0.000 MILLION oz ( A RARITY FOR A LARGE DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR/DEC.)
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 508,023 weak// t.a.s. enhanced to a lesser extent,
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6455x 5,000 oz = 32.275 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (879) and the number of notices served upon today (0)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month: 6455 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(879) minus number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 36.670 MILLION OZ. + to which we add .66 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR//new total 37.33
New total standing: 37.33 million oz.
There are 79.410 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 873.65 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 470.718 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 201 ANDREW MAGUIRE
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 201
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:RARE EARTH
China produces most of the world’s rare earths needed for major metal productions
(zerohedge)
Visualizing Global Rare Earth Metals Production Over The Past 30 Years
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 02:45 AM
Rare earth metals are a set of 17 chemically similar elements which are integral for modern technologies.
From neodymium, used in powerful magnets that can withstand extreme temperatures, to beryllium, which is used to manufacture lightweight materials for fighter jets, these elements have a variety of crucial technological uses.
While rare earth metals are not particularly rare, they are seldom found in pure form and are often mixed with other minerals, making them costly to mine.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes rare earth metals production (in kilotonnes) of the eight leading countries from 1995 to 2023, using figures from the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 report.
China Is Dominating Rare Earth Metals Production
Global rare earth metals production has surged the past three decades, increasing from 75.7 kilotonnes in 1995 to over 350 kilotonnes in 2023, reflecting growing demand for these metals in high-tech applications.
China has been and still is the undisputed leader in the rare earth metals industry, accounting for over two-thirds of global production as of 2023.
The United States has made a big comeback in rare earth metals production, particularly from 2017 onwards. U.S. production jumped from 15.4 kilotonnes in 2017 to 43 kilotonnes in 2023, reflecting efforts to strengthen the domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China.
Separating and processing rare earth metals is an integral step in the supply chain, and China has a near monopoly on this process. The country currently processes 90% of all rare earth metals and 99.9% of heavy rare earth metals, meaning it is importing metals from other countries and processing them.
In December 2023, China banned the export of rare earth metal extraction and separation technology, hoping to reinforce its dominant position when it comes to the global critical minerals supply chain.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has been ramping up efforts to bolster both domestic rare earth metals production and processing capabilities, awarding millions in defense contracts to companies like Lynas Earths and MP Materials to build their own separation and processing facilities.
To learn more about which critical minerals the U.S. depends on China for the most, check out this graphic that visualizes China’s share of U.S. imports by metal.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.16 PTS OR 0.42%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.02%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 27.53 OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2805 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2807// Oil UP TO 69.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.72 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2805
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2807
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 14.16 PTS OR 0.42%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.02%
2. Nikkei closed UP 27.53 PTS OR 0.07%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106.57 EURO FALLS TO 1.0497 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.051 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.10…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.0890 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.255 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.789
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 2.9234
3j Gold at $2637.50 /Silver at: 30.57 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 50/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 104.51
3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.10 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.051% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8866 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9307 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.265 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.436 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1967 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.76…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.320 UP 5 PTS
10 YR FRANCE YIELD: 2.915 UP 3 BASIS PTS FRENCH YIELD/GERMANY A HIGH .826 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.165 UP 5 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.024 UP 2 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise To Fresh Record High Ahead Of Powell Speech, French Government Collapse
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 08:16 AM
Futures are higher following yesterday’s geopolitical events in France and S. Korea – which ironically highlight the stable exceptionalism of the US and its markets. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher, and on pace for a 56th record high in 2024, after closing at the 55th yesterday; Nasdaq futures surge 0.6% boosted by positive earnings from CRM (+13.4% pre-mkt) and MRVL (+13.1% pre-mkt). All of Mag7 are also higher pre-mkt with Semis seeing a bid. The yield curve is twisting steeper with 10Y yield +4bps to 4.26%; the USD is reacting positively and is also higher. The commodity complex is under pressure with crude the outperformer while gold dips. Today’s macro data focus is on Mortgage Applications, ADP and ISM-Services. Fed chair Powell speaks at the Dealbook conference at 1:45pm ET. Shortly after 10am ET, France will hold a no confidence vote that is expected to topple the government of PM Michel Barnier and plunge France into an even deeper crisis.
In premarket trading, Salesforce jumped 12% to a record high after the software company reported fiscal third-quarter results that beat expectations on a number of key metrics. Dollar Tree gained 3% as sales improved in the third quarter, a sign the discounter is making headway in fending off competition and drawing in more shoppers. Foot Locker plunged 15% after the company cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts, citing more discounts and a pullback in consumer spending. Here are some other premarket movers:
General Motors (GM) slid after the carmaker said it will incur more than $5 billion in charges and writedowns tied to its troubled operations in China as the automaker tries to salvage its once-profitable business in the world’s largest car market.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) sinks 18% as an offering of about 9.52m shares prices at $10.50 each.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) jumps 13% after the chipmaker delivered better-than-expected results and an upbeat earnings forecast, citing demand for artificial intelligence computing.
Novavax (NVAX) rises 2% after the biotech firm signed a pact to sell its manufacturing facility in Bohumil, Czech Republic to Novo Nordisk for $200 million.
Okta (OKTA) jumps 14% after the cloud-software provider posted raised its full-year forecast.
Pure Storage (PSTG) soars 23% after the cloud storage provider’s posted quarterly revenue that beat estimates and announced a big design win.
Royal Bank of Canada beat estimates after setting aside less money than expected for potentially bad loans.
Traders were focused on French markets which are relatively stable for now ahead of Wednesday’s no-confidence vote around 4pm CET that threatens to topple the government. South Korea’s won rebounded after President Yoon Suk Yeol rescinded his shock declaration of martial law.
“Our base case expectation is that the government will lose the vote,” Rabobank strategists wrote in a client note. They say French bonds can weaken further and recommend selling the debt against buying Spanish and Italian peers.
Attention will then turn to Powell’s speech at the Dealbook conference in NY around 1:45pm ET, as well as the latest US Manufacturing PMI and ISM services data in the build-up to Friday’s crucial US jobs report. Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said a December rate reduction isn’t certain, but remains on the table.
“The Fed has been quite clear up until now in their signaling, so if they were going to pause Powell might give some signals because they won’t want to surprise the market,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance. “But I do think they will cut by 25 basis points this month.”
The surge in US stocks that has driven the S&P 500 index 27% higher this year shows few signs of fading, according to strategists at Barclays, powered by the election of Donald Trump and a positive economic backdrop. “It is hard to see an end to US exceptionalism any time soon, which we think remains the playbook into 2025,” the team lead by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a research note.
In France, the CAC 40 stocks index rose, marginally outperforming Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 gauge which gained 0.3%, while the yield premium on French bonds over their German equivalents was steady ahead of an upcoming no-confidence vote that could lead to the collapse of the French government. The German DAX climbs to a record high. Sweden’s Hexagon made the biggest leap in the Stoxx 600 index after it nominated former ABB’s former CEO as vice chair. Meanwhile, Signify slipped on a double-downgrade from Barclays on revenue and margins pressure. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
Hexagon gains as much as 7.5% after the Swedish industrial technology group’s nomination committee proposed Bjorn Rosengren as the new vice chairman, to be voted on at a May 5 AGM
BE Semiconductor gains as much as 5.8% after being upgraded to buy BofA, which said demand for the chip equipment maker’s tools has probably reached a trough and is poised to recover
Campari shares gain as much as 5.5%, the biggest intraday advance since Sept. 26, after the Italian beverage maker named Simon Hunt its new chief executive officer
Spirax Group shares rise as much as 2.8% after being upgraded to overweight by Barclays, which argues that the selloff in the industrial engineering group has gone too far
Legal & General shares advance as much as 4.3% after the British insurer said that part of the capital not deployed this year would be returned to shareholders
Victrex rises as much as 5% following an upgrade to buy from hold at Jefferies, which says the specialty chemicals company offers an attractive recovery opportunity from cyclical lows
Coca-Cola HBC shares rise as much as 2.8% after analysts at BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the bottling company. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank hiked its price target
Learning Technologies jumps as much as 7.1% after the e-learning company said it had reached agreement on a recommended acquisition by General Atlantic
Signify shares fall as much as 6.8% after Barclays analysts double-downgraded the Dutch light manufacturer citing pressure on revenue, margins and cash flow next year mostly due to China
Orange shares decline as much as 2.8% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the telecom operator to equal-weight, saying the French firm’s home market is set to see declining Ebitda growth
Maersk shares fall as much as 4% as JP Morgan slashes its price target to a Street-low, while Morgan Stanley becomes the 10th bank to give the shipping firm a sell-equivalent rating
Carlsberg drops as much as 3% after Nordea downgrades the stock to sell and BNP Paribas Exane lowers its rating on the brewer to neutral
The stability in French assets before Wednesday’s vote came as no surprise to Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, EMEA chief investment officer at Lombard Odier. “This is not a crisis of the style we had during 2012 and 2013 with the European debt crisis,” she said on Bloomberg Television. “France has a current account deficit that is tiny when you think about it, which means it has the ability to recycle and fund the government debt internally. That is its strength on which markets can take solace and build on.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, poised to snap a three-day advance as a brief imposition of martial law in South Korea overnight spurred risk-off sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6% and was on course to snap its longest win streak since September. Financial firms Sumitomo Mitsui and Mitsubishi UFJ were among its biggest drags. South Korea’s Kospi ended the day down 1.4% after President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law amid a political tussle, before rescinding it just hours later. Investors are assessing what’s next for South Korea after the opposition Democratic Party said it will pursue charges of treason and impeachment against Yoon for declaring martial law illegally. The Bank of Korea said it will increase short-term liquidity and take “active” steps in currency markets as needed to ensure stability.
“There’s certainly some lingering uncertainty — but the quick response from Korean authorities means that impact on the region could remain limited,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets.
Outside of Korea, key gauges also declined in Japan and Australia, while Chinese shares were mixed. Indonesia stocks led gains around the region, while Singapore stocks advanced toward a record high.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% while the Aussie dollar slumped after 3Q GDP missed estimates. The yen falls 0.9% to 151 per dollar. The South Korean won climbs 1% versus the dollar while BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong dismissed cutting rates due to political developments.
In rates, treasuries cheaper across a steeper yield curve — an extension of Tuesday’s price action — ahead of a heavy US economic data slate and an appearance by Fed Chair Powell during the session. US yields are up 1bp-3bp across maturities with 2s10s, 5s30s curves steeper by 1.7bp and 1bp on the day, exceeding Tuesday’s highs; 10-year at 4.26% is ~4bp cheaper on the day with bunds and gilts keeping pace. European markets are also in focus, with Estoxx 50 climbing ahead of a no-confidence vote that could lead to the collapse of the French government. Gilts fell after deriving only brief support from comments by BOE Governor Bailey who said they expect to deliver four 25-bp interest-rate cuts next year. Treasuries and bunds also decline.
In commodities, oil steadied after the biggest advance in more than two weeks. WTI rose 0.6% to $70.40 a barrel. Spot gold falls $3 to $2,641/oz. Bitcoin rises toward $97,000.
Looking at the US economic data calendar we get the November ADP employment change (8:15am), November final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am), and November ISM services index and October factory orders (10am). • Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (8:45am), Barkin (9am), Powell (1:40pm) and Daly (6pm); Beige Book release at 2pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 6,076.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 516.73
MXAP down 0.5% to 186.65
MXAPJ down 0.1% to 585.41
Nikkei little changed at 39,276.39
Topix down 0.5% to 2,740.60
Hang Seng Index little changed at 19,742.46
Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,364.65
Sensex up 0.2% to 80,978.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 8,462.60
Kospi down 1.4% to 2,464.00
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.08%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0497
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $73.82/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,641.53
US Dollar Index up 0.17% to 106.54
Top Overnight News
South Korea’s opposition submitted an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol after he briefly imposed martial law, sparking calls for his resignation. Local stocks closed lower, while the won erased most of its overnight loss. BBG
South Korea’s central bank said it would boost short-term liquidity and take steps to stabilize the currency as needed, but Governor Rhee Chang-yong said it is unlikely the central bank will cut interest rates. BBG
China auto sales surged in November, likely on the back of price cuts and government stimulus initiatives. Retail vehicle sales grew to 2.4 million in November, up 18% compared with last year. BBG
French stocks gained and bond spreads narrowed as President Emmanuel Macron urged lawmakers to reject a no-confidence vote that would topple the government. He said he won’t resign before his term ends. Voting is due to start after 4 p.m. local time. BBG
The BOE has scope to reduce rates at least four times in 2025 if its UK economy outlook bears out, Governor Andrew Bailey said and the FT reported. Inflation has fallen faster than expected a year ago, he said. FT
Final GOP majority in the House will be 220-215 after the last race in California was officially called, but the split will be 217-215 in the opening months of the Trump administration (as Trump is taking two House Republicans into his cabinet and Gaetz resigned). NYT
Robert Lighthizer, the former U.S. trade chief, is unlikely to rejoin the Trump administration in an official capacity. Lighthizer could still be selected by Trump for a formal advisory role in the administration, though his hopes of landing a high-level cabinet job have slipped away. WSJ
President-elect Donald Trump is considering Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a possible replacement for Pete Hegseth, his pick to run the Pentagon as Secretary of Defense. WSJ
Advisers to Donald Trump publicly and privately are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia and taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table. Reuters
US Speaker Mike Johnson anticipates the stopgap funding bill will expire in late March 2025. A final decision is expected in the coming days, according to PunchBowl News.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued with underperformance in South Korea following the martial law declaration and backtrack. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in real estate, defensives and financials, while Australian GDP data disappointed. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the lack of Japan-specific catalysts. KOSPI underperformed following South Korean President Yoon’s martial law declaration and subsequent backtracking which has led to calls from within the party to step down and an effort by opposition parties to impeach him for treason. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lacked conviction after somewhat mixed PMI data in which Chinese Caixin S ervices PMI missed forecasts but Caixin Composite PMI accelerated, while trade frictions also lingered after China’s MOFCOM banned the export of “dual-use items” relating to gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the US.
Top Asian News
South Korean ruling party leaders urged President Yoon to resign from the party and the ruling party leader saw the need to oust the defence chief and suggested that Yoon be kicked out of the party although ruling party lawmakers had various views and were undecided on Yoon’s departure from the party. Furthermore, the main opposition party announced it would seek to impeach President Yoon and it was also reported that South Korea’s Cabinet offered mass resignation.
BoK said it will increase short-term liquidity measures starting Wednesday and will loosen collateral policies in the repo operation to ease any bond market jitters, while it will deploy various measures to stabilise FX as needed and will make any special loans available to inject funds into the market if required.
South Korea’s regulator said it is ready to deploy the KRW 10tln stock market stabilisation fund anytime, according to Yonhap.
South Korean main labour union group called for a general strike until South Korean President Yoon resigns, according to AFP.
South Korea’s metal workers’ union said it will launch a full strike from December 11th unless President Yoon steps down, according to Yonhap.
BoK Governor Rhee suggests more rate cuts are unlikely respite the turmoil; adds “political certainty may have actually increased”; not changing economic outlook, via Bloomberg TV.
South Korea’s Defence Minister offers to resign, according to Yonhap.
European bourses began the session mostly in positive territory, and continued to climb higher as the morning progressed. Today’s Final PMI metrics across Europe were mixed, and ultimately had little impact on price action. European sectors hold a slight positive vs initially opening almost entirely in the green. Autos, Retail and Tech take the top spots – seemingly beneficiaries of the risk-on mood seen in Europe today. Healthcare bottoms the sector list, weighed on by AstraZeneca after it received a PT cut at HSBC. US equity futures are trading on a firmer footing, taking impetus from a mostly positive session in Europe; the NQ is the marginal outperformer so far. ASM International (ASM NA) announces outcome of prelim assessment new export regulations; based on a prelim assessment newly issued US export controls are largely in line with previous assumptions. EU to crack down on Asian online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, according to the FT. Potential charges aim to slow surge of goods sold on sites such as Temu and Shein that evade custom duties and checks. The bloc’s safety authorities have detected a growing number of dangerous and counterfeit goods, many of which are dispatched direct to consumers.
Top European News
BoE’s Bailey said he sees four 25bps BoE rate cuts in 2025, according to the FT. He welcomes recent inflation developments, and added the MPC has emphasised gradual outlook for rates, and the disinflation process is well embedded but there is further to travel. He noted inflation impact of higher trade tariffs are not straightforward at all.
ECB’s Holzmann said a 25bps rate cut is conceivable in December and not more, while he added nothing is decided on the next rate move and it will depend on data available at the December meeting. Furthermore, he stated that US President-elect Trump is casting a shadow over inflation in Europe and will probably drive up the inflation forecast.
ECB policymaker and Bundesbank President Nagel said the German economy faces a weak outlook and 2025 is likely to be another year of weak growth, while he also called for a softer debt brake to ramp up investment, according to FT.
ECB’s Rehn said he sees more grounds for the ECB to cut rates in December, sees policy easing continuing in the coming months.
ECB’s Vujcic said a December rate decision will not be difficult, small steps on rates are better amid uncertainty, other ECB officials broadly agree on rates, via Politico.
FX
DXY a touch higher with the USD showing greater performance vs. JPY and the antipodeans. Recent Fed commentary has continued to talk up the possibility of a rate cut on 18th December. Markets will be looking for greater clarity from Fed Chair Powell later in the session; but before that, traders will look out for US ADP and ISM services.
EUR is slightly softer vs. the USD ahead of today’s French no confidence vote on PM Barnier’s government; a motion Barnier is expected to lose. Lagarde is due to speak at 13:30GMT but is unlikely to sway the 25bps vs. 50bps debate. EUR/USD has continued to pivot around the 1.05 mark and currently sits within yesterday’s 1.0480-1.0535.
JPY on the backfoot vs. the USD with USD/JPY continuing to chop around the 150 mark with prices consolidating after the recent declines in USD/JPY.
GBP has been knocked lower in recent trade following dovish remarks from BoE Governor Bailey who stated that he sees four 25bps rate cuts in 2025; Note, market pricing ahead of his comments looked for three 25bps rate cuts next year. Cable slipped further onto a 1.26 handle, tripping below Tuesday’s low at 1.2637.
AUD is the laggard across the majors following soft domestic Q3 GDP data overnight which has seen money markets fully price an RBA rate cut for the April 2025 meeting. NZD/USD is lower but to a lesser extent; session low at 0.5832.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2821 (prev. 7.1996)
Fixed Income
The US curve is modestly bear-steepening after yesterday’s Waller induced bull-steepening. Commentary from Fed officials since from the likes of Daly has done little to talk up the odds of a pause later this month. Today sees US ADP, ISM Services ahead of Chair Powell at 18:45 GMT. Mar’25 UST has broken below Tuesday’s low and is eyeing the WTD trough at 110.23.
Bunds/OATs are trading on the backfoot as traders await today’s no confidence vote in French PM Barnier; a motion Barnier is expected to lose. DE/FR spread has narrowed to just below 85bps having peaked just shy of 89bps on Monday. Today’s German 2034 Bund auction passed without issue.
Gilts have seen a pick-up in recent trade (but are ultimately softer on the session) following dovish remarks from BoE Governor Bailey who stated that he sees four 25bps rate cuts in 2025. Note, market pricing ahead of his comments looked for three 25bps rate cuts next year. Mar’25 Gilts rose from 95.82 to 96.06 within a few minutes to then stabilise around 96.00 ahead of a 2031 auction, which was fairly weak; the results sparked some fleeting pressure in Gilt prices.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.0% 2031 Gilt: b/c 2.91x (prev. 3.42x), average yield 4.155% (prev. 3.988%), tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.2bps)
WTI and Brent are relatively flat and within a tight range ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting slated for tomorrow at 11:30 GMT. Recent geopolitical developments include reports that “Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese army forces during their inspection of the port of Naqoura”. A WSJ article reported that Saudi Arabia is aiming to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share; news which fuelled some marginal upside in the complex, which ultimately proved fleeting. Brent Feb trades in a USD 73.54-74.17/bbl.
Precious metals are generally subdued intraday against the backdrop of a slightly firmer Dollar, whilst major newsflow for the yellow metal remains sparse in the run-up US ISM Services PMI, Fed Chair Powell, and then Friday’s US Jobs data. Spot gold resides in a tight USD 2,636.73-2,651.45/oz parameter.
Mostly subdued trade across base metals amid a slightly firmer Dollar, but despite a mildly firmer risk tone elsewhere. 3M LME copper trades in a narrow USD 9,076.50-9,133.50/t range.
OPEC+ meeting to take place tomorrow at 12:30 Vienna (11:30 GMT), according to Energy Intel.
Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share, according to WSJ; Saudi reportedly averse to a price war with US shale. “Delegate noted that Angola already quit the cartel, and speculated that other countries could soon follow as a result of the policy”.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese army forces during their inspection of the port of Naqoura”, according to Al Arabiya
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement “will endure and not collapse despite all the shocks it has experienced since its announcement”, according to a government source via Lebanese newspaper cited by Israeli journalist. “According to him, nothing has changed since reaching the agreement in terms of the political reality and the reality on the ground that led to its formulation. “The agreement was not forged so that it would collapse within a few days.”
Syrian army announced the entry of the largest military convoy to the countryside of Hama to support the forces deployed on the fronts, according to Al Arabiya.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister of Political Affairs yesterday warned of possible NPT withdrawal if UN ‘snapback’ mechanism triggered, via IRNA citing a top lawmaker.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Russian defence units were reportedly engaged in repelling a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiisk, while the report added that the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk is one of Russia’s most important oil export gateways.
Geopolitics: Other
US and South Korea postponed planned defence talks and joint military exercises that were scheduled this week.
China’s Coast Guard said four Philippine Coast Guard ships attempted to enter China’s territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal and the ships dangerously approached China’s normal law enforcement patrol vessels, while it stated that China exercised control over the Philippine ships in accordance with the law. However, Philippine’s Coast Guard said Philippine vessels encountered aggressive actions from several Chinese Coast Guard vessels and the Chinese Coast Guard fired a water cannon against Philippine vessels, as well as “intentionally sideswiped” a Philippine vessel on the starboard side.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 6.3%
08:15: Nov. ADP Employment Change, est. 150,000, prior 233,000
09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 57.0, prior 57.0
10:00: Oct. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
Oct. Durables Less Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
Oct. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.2%
Oct. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior -0.2%
10:00: Oct. Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.1%
Oct. Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -0.5%
10:00: Nov. ISM Services Index, est. 55.7, prior 56.0
14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Central Bank Speakers
08:45: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on US Economy, Policy
13:45: Fed’s Powell Speaks in Moderated Discussion
14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The last 24 hours have been very unusual in the world of DM governments and the next 24 hours are going to be equally unprecedented. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an astonishing move yesterday afternoon European time (late Korean time) and then later reversed the decision after a vote against it by the National Assembly in the early hours their time. Now today the French government could see the first successful no-confidence votes since 1962.
As soon as we saw the announcement in South Korea, the Won plunged -2.67% against the US Dollar at the lows, but more than halved those losses after a parliamentary vote rejected the move with 190 out of 300 lawmakers managing to return to parliament to all vote against the motion. The opposition controls 170 seats so this was always a move that was unlikely to get ratified. President Yoon has since lifted martial law but the opposition are now demanding the President immediately resign or face impeachment. In fact as I press send, impeachment proceedings have begun. The Won has now recovered most of its losses from yesterday and is just over half a percent below level prior to the drama.
This morning the KOSPI is -1.39% lower having been as low as -2.3% earlier. Samsung (South Korea’s biggest company) is trading -1.49% lower after tumbling as much as -3% initially this morning after yesterday seeing its depositary receipts in London fall by nearly -7.5% at the lows before also paring this back after the parliamentary vote to close down -3.7%. The turn in Korean assets yesterday was also helped by the Finance Ministry saying that it planned to “deploy all possible market-stabilizing measures,” including “unlimited liquidity” just as the parliamentary vote was convened. This morning there have been more specifics with South Korea’s financial regulator indicating that it stands ready to activate 10 trillion won ($7.07 billion) in a stock market stabilisation fund to reduce market volatility. So for now we have a much calmer situation, but given how important South Korea is to the global supply chain this remains a story to keep on our radar.
One story that is unlikely to evade our radar is the one in France. The no confidence debate is set to kick off at 4pm local time today (3pm London), and voting will happen around three hours later. But since Marine Le Pen announced on Monday that her party would vote to bring down the government, it would now require someone to shift position unexpectedly in order for Barnier to win. So the general sense is that this vote could be successful. If so, there isn’t an obvious route forward on what happens next, as even though President Macron has to propose a new PM (which could be Barnier again), we know from Barnier’s own appointment that this is a completely fractured National Assembly where it’s proven impossible so far for a majority to coalesce. Moreover, the French Constitution means they have to wait a year from the last legislative election before another vote can take place, so that isn’t an immediate option either.
Last night President Macron tried to strike an optimistic tone, saying the National Rally choosing to vote for the no-confidence measure, “would be a vote of unbearable cynicism” and did not think they could side with the far-left flank. He also noted that he would not resign as President until his full term has ended in 2027, even as the left has called for him to step down. From a market point of view, the Franco-German 10yr spread did tighten a bit yesterday, coming down -3.1bps to 85.0bps.
However, they’re still very high by the standards of the last decade, only just coming off their Monday level which was the widest since 2012. Moreover, French equities continued to underperform, with the CAC 40 (+0.26%) lagging behind the STOXX 600 (+0.37%) once again. And banks experienced further declines, with Société Générale (-0.68%), BNP Paribas (-0.29%) and Crédit Agricole (-0.40%) all losing ground.
Away from all the political developments, markets were fairly steady overall, with investors looking forward to the US jobs report on Friday as the next catalyst. Nevertheless, there was a clear intra-day selloff for US Treasuries, after the latest JOLTS report showed a tighter labour market than expected. For instance, the number of job openings rose more than expected to 7.744m in October (vs. 7.519m expected). In addition, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs rose to 2.1%, the highest since May. So that added to investors’ confidence that the labour market was holding up.
After Fed Governor Waller indicated on Monday that he was leaning toward supporting a rate cut this month, there was a bit extra attention on speakers yesterday. Overall, the dovish bent continued, albeit less enthusiastically. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Daly noted that further cuts were coming, saying “Whether it’ll be in December or some time later, that’s a question we’ll have a chance to debate and discuss in our next meeting, but the point is we have to keep policy moving down to accommodate the economy.” This echoed Chicago Fed President Goolsbee’s sentiment that interest rates will “come down a fair amount from where they are now”. Additionally, Fed Governor Kugler said the economy was in a “good position” and that price pressures were on a “sustainable path” toward the Fed’s 2% target. The one semi-hawkish note was from President Daly, who noted that the neutral rate has likely moved up “closer to 3%” now.
With that data in hand and Fed speakers a bit more equivocal, futures slightly dialled back the likelihood that the Fed would cut rates in two weeks’ time, with the probability falling from 76% to 70% by the close. 2yr yields were largely unchanged by the close, at 4.179%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +3.5bps to 4.225% and off the pre-JOLTS/South-Korea-Martial-Law lows for the session of 4.17%. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr bund yields ended the session up +2.0bps at 2.05%, whilst those on 10yr gilts (+3.1bps) moved up to 4.24%.
For equities, it was a subdued day in the US with the S&P 500 (+0.05%) seeing little movement, with the index just making yet another record high. Tech stocks saw a slight outperformance, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.86%) and the NASDAQ (+0.40%) both inching up to record highs of their own. But small-caps struggled, with the Russell 2000 (-0.73%) falling back. Over in Europe however, the story was one of more consistent positivity, with the STOXX 600 (+0.37%) advancing for a 4th consecutive session, including outperformances from Spain’s IBEX 35 (+1.18%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.03%).
Coming back to Asia, equity markets are recovering after a weak open following the political drama in South Korea. The Nikkei (+0.27%) and Hang Seng (+0.27%) have now moved higher even as the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.38%), the CSI (-0.21%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.07%) remain lower. S&P 500 (+0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.37%) futures are higher.
Early morning data showed that 3Q24 GDP for Australia missed on the downside, coming in at +0.3% QoQ, below the +0.5% figure that had been forecast. It followed growth of just +0.2% QoQ in the previous three quarters. Following the release, the Aussie (-0.72%) is losing ground trading at 0.6439 against the dollar. Elsewhere, China’s services sector delivered a surprise slowdown as the Caixin/S&P Global services PMI fell to 51.5 (v/s 52.4 expected) from 52.0 in October. The downbeat data aligns with the official PMI released on Saturday, which showed non-manufacturing activity weakened to 50.0.
To the day ahead, and data releases from the US include the ISM services for November, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November, as well as the final November services and composite PMIs from around the world. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Musalem, Barkin and Daly, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf and Nagel, along with BoE Governor Bailey. Separately, the Fed will release their Beige Book.
2B) European report
US futures tilt higher ahead of Powell & European paper awaits French no confidence vote – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 06:51 AM
European bourses are mostly trading in positive territory; US futures tilt higher ahead of Powell and a busy data slate.
USD is broadly firmer vs. peers, AUD lags post-GDP, and GBP was weighed on by commentary from BoE’s Bailey who said he sees four 25bps cuts in 2025; a move which has since pared.
European paper awaits French no confidence vote at 15:00 GMT.
Crude holds an upward bias, WSJ reports that Saudi aims to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share; XAU/base metals are subdued amid the slightly firmer dollar.
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, French Government No Confidence Motion, Speakers include ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell & Musalem.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses began the session mostly in positive territory, and continued to climb higher as the morning progressed. Today’s Final PMI metrics across Europe were mixed, and ultimately had little impact on price action.
European sectors hold a slight positive vs initially opening almost entirely in the green. Autos, Retail and Tech take the top spots – seemingly beneficiaries of the risk-on mood seen in Europe today. Healthcare bottoms the sector list, weighed on by AstraZeneca after it received a PT cut at HSBC.
US equity futures are trading on a firmer footing, taking impetus from a mostly positive session in Europe; the NQ is the marginal outperformer so far.
ASM International (ASM NA) announces outcome of prelim assessment new export regulations; based on a prelim assessment newly issued US export controls are largely in line with previous assumptions.
EU to crack down on Asian online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, according to the FT. Potential charges aim to slow surge of goods sold on sites such as Temu and Shein that evade custom duties and checks. The bloc’s safety authorities have detected a growing number of dangerous and counterfeit goods, many of which are dispatched direct to consumers.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) topped Q3 earnings expectations, with strong AI demand driving a 19% sequential increase in revenue. Q3 adj. EPS 0.43 (exp. 0.41), Q3 revenue USD 1.8bln (exp. 1.46bln).
Salesforce Inc (CRM) Q3 adj. EPS 2.41 (exp. 2.44) (note, strategic investments reduced EPS by around 0.18/shr), Q3 revenue USD 9.44bln (exp. 9.35bln). Sees Q4 adj. EPS between USD 2.57-2.62 (exp. 2.65), and sees Q4 revenue between USD 9.90bln-10.10bln (exp. 10.05bln).
DXY a touch higher with the USD showing greater performance vs. JPY and the antipodeans. Recent Fed commentary has continued to talk up the possibility of a rate cut on 18th December. Markets will be looking for greater clarity from Fed Chair Powell later in the session; but before that, traders will look out for US ADP and ISM services.
EUR is slightly softer vs. the USD ahead of today’s French no confidence vote on PM Barnier’s government; a motion Barnier is expected to lose. Lagarde is due to speak at 13:30GMT but is unlikely to sway the 25bps vs. 50bps debate. EUR/USD has continued to pivot around the 1.05 mark and currently sits within yesterday’s 1.0480-1.0535.
JPY on the backfoot vs. the USD with USD/JPY continuing to chop around the 150 mark with prices consolidating after the recent declines in USD/JPY.
GBP has been knocked lower in recent trade following dovish remarks from BoE Governor Bailey who stated that he sees four 25bps rate cuts in 2025; Note, market pricing ahead of his comments looked for three 25bps rate cuts next year. Cable slipped further onto a 1.26 handle, tripping below Tuesday’s low at 1.2637.
AUD is the laggard across the majors following soft domestic Q3 GDP data overnight which has seen money markets fully price an RBA rate cut for the April 2025 meeting. NZD/USD is lower but to a lesser extent; session low at 0.5832.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2821 (prev. 7.1996)
The US curve is modestly bear-steepening after yesterday’s Waller induced bull-steepening. Commentary from Fed officials since from the likes of Daly has done little to talk up the odds of a pause later this month. Today sees US ADP, ISM Services ahead of Chair Powell at 18:45 GMT. Mar’25 UST has broken below Tuesday’s low and is eyeing the WTD trough at 110.23.
Bunds/OATs are trading on the backfoot as traders await today’s no confidence vote in French PM Barnier; a motion Barnier is expected to lose. DE/FR spread has narrowed to just below 85bps having peaked just shy of 89bps on Monday. Today’s German 2034 Bund auction passed without issue.
Gilts have seen a pick-up in recent trade (but are ultimately softer on the session) following dovish remarks from BoE Governor Bailey who stated that he sees four 25bps rate cuts in 2025. Note, market pricing ahead of his comments looked for three 25bps rate cuts next year. Mar’25 Gilts rose from 95.82 to 96.06 within a few minutes to then stabilise around 96.00 ahead of a 2031 auction, which was fairly weak; the results sparked some fleeting pressure in Gilt prices.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.0% 2031 Gilt: b/c 2.91x (prev. 3.42x), average yield 4.155% (prev. 3.988%), tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.2bps)
WTI and Brent are relatively flat and within a tight range ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting slated for tomorrow at 11:30 GMT. Recent geopolitical developments include reports that “Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese army forces during their inspection of the port of Naqoura“. A WSJ article reported that Saudi Arabia is aiming to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share; news which fuelled some marginal upside in the complex, which ultimately proved fleeting. Brent Feb trades in a USD 73.54-74.17/bbl.
Precious metals are generally subdued intraday against the backdrop of a slightly firmer Dollar, whilst major newsflow for the yellow metal remains sparse in the run-up US ISM Services PMI, Fed Chair Powell, and then Friday’s US Jobs data. Spot gold resides in a tight USD 2,636.73-2,651.45/oz parameter.
Mostly subdued trade across base metals amid a slightly firmer Dollar, but despite a mildly firmer risk tone elsewhere. 3M LME copper trades in a narrow USD 9,076.50-9,133.50/t range.
OPEC+ meeting to take place tomorrow at 12:30 Vienna (11:30 GMT), according to Energy Intel.
Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share, according to WSJ; Saudi reportedly averse to a price war with US shale. “Delegate noted that Angola already quit the cartel, and speculated that other countries could soon follow as a result of the policy“.
EU Producer Prices YY (Oct) -3.2% vs. Exp. -3.3% (Prev. -3.4%); Producer Prices MM (Oct) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.6%)
EU HCOB – Composite Final PMI (Nov) 48.3 vs. Exp. 48.1 (Prev. 48.1); HCOB Services Final PMI (Nov) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.2)
German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Nov) 47.2 vs. Exp. 47.3 (Prev. 47.3); HCOB Services PMI (Nov) 49.3 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 49.4)
French HCOB – Services PMI (Nov) 46.9 vs. Exp. 45.7 (Prev. 45.7); HCOB Composite PMI (Nov) 45.9 vs. Exp. 44.8 (Prev. 44.8)
Spanish Services PMI (Nov) 53.1 vs. Exp. 53.2 (Prev. 54.9)
Italian HCOB Services PMI (Nov) 49.2 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 52.4); HCOB Composite PMI (Nov) 47.7 (Prev. 51.0)
UK S&P GLOBAL PMI: COMPOSITE – OUTPUT (Nov) 50.5 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.9); S&P GLOBAL SERVICE PMI (Nov) 50.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.0)
Swedish PMI Services (Nov) 50.9 (Prev. 52.9)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
BoE’s Bailey said he sees four 25bps BoE rate cuts in 2025, according to the FT. He welcomes recent inflation developments, and added the MPC has emphasised gradual outlook for rates, and the disinflation process is well embedded but there is further to travel. He noted inflation impact of higher trade tariffs are not straightforward at all.
ECB’s Holzmann said a 25bps rate cut is conceivable in December and not more, while he added nothing is decided on the next rate move and it will depend on data available at the December meeting. Furthermore, he stated that US President-elect Trump is casting a shadow over inflation in Europe and will probably drive up the inflation forecast.
ECB policymaker and Bundesbank President Nagel said the German economy faces a weak outlook and 2025 is likely to be another year of weak growth, while he also called for a softer debt brake to ramp up investment, according to FT.
ECB’s Rehn said he sees more grounds for the ECB to cut rates in December, sees policy easing continuing in the coming months.
ECB’s Vujcic said a December rate decision will not be difficult, small steps on rates are better amid uncertainty, other ECB officials broadly agree on rates, via Politico.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President-elect Trump is considering Florida Governor Desantis as a possible replacement for Pete Hegseth as his pick for Defence Secretary. It was later reported that Senator Earnst of Iowa is among the names under consideration to replace Hegseth as pick to lead the Pentagon, while other Trump allies are floating Senator Hagerty of Tennessee for the role, according to CNN.
US Speaker Mike Johnson anticipates the stopgap funding bill will expire in late March 2025. A final decision is expected in the coming days, according to PunchBowl News.
GEOPOLITICS
“Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese army forces during their inspection of the port of Naqoura”, according to Al Arabiya
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement “will endure and not collapse despite all the shocks it has experienced since its announcement”, according to a government source via Lebanese newspaper cited by Israeli journalist. “According to him, nothing has changed since reaching the agreement in terms of the political reality and the reality on the ground that led to its formulation. “The agreement was not forged so that it would collapse within a few days.”
Syrian army announced the entry of the largest military convoy to the countryside of Hama to support the forces deployed on the fronts, according to Al Arabiya.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister of Political Affairs yesterday warned of possible NPT withdrawal if UN ‘snapback’ mechanism triggered, via IRNA citing a top lawmaker.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian defence units were reportedly engaged in repelling a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiisk, while the report added that the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk is one of Russia’s most important oil export gateways.
OTHER
US and South Korea postponed planned defence talks and joint military exercises that were scheduled this week.
China’s Coast Guard said four Philippine Coast Guard ships attempted to enter China’s territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal and the ships dangerously approached China’s normal law enforcement patrol vessels, while it stated that China exercised control over the Philippine ships in accordance with the law. However, Philippine’s Coast Guard said Philippine vessels encountered aggressive actions from several Chinese Coast Guard vessels and the Chinese Coast Guard fired a water cannon against Philippine vessels, as well as “intentionally sideswiped” a Philippine vessel on the starboard side.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and holds above USD 96.5k; Ethereum sees gains of a larger magnitude and sits above USD 3.7k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly subdued with underperformance in South Korea following the martial law declaration and backtrack.
ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in real estate, defensives and financials, while Australian GDP data disappointed.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the lack of Japan-specific catalysts.
KOSPI underperformed following South Korean President Yoon’s martial law declaration and subsequent backtracking which has led to calls from within the party to step down and an effort by opposition parties to impeach him for treason.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lacked conviction after somewhat mixed PMI data in which Chinese Caixin Services PMI missed forecasts but Caixin Composite PMI accelerated, while trade frictions also lingered after China’s MOFCOM banned the export of “dual-use items” relating to gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the US.
South Korean ruling party leaders urged President Yoon to resign from the party and the ruling party leader saw the need to oust the defence chief and suggested that Yoon be kicked out of the party although ruling party lawmakers had various views and were undecided on Yoon’s departure from the party. Furthermore, the main opposition party announced it would seek to impeach President Yoon and it was also reported that South Korea’s Cabinet offered mass resignation.
BoK said it will increase short-term liquidity measures starting Wednesday and will loosen collateral policies in the repo operation to ease any bond market jitters, while it will deploy various measures to stabilise FX as needed and will make any special loans available to inject funds into the market if required.
South Korea’s regulator said it is ready to deploy the KRW 10tln stock market stabilisation fund anytime, according to Yonhap.
South Korean main labour union group called for a general strike until South Korean President Yoon resigns, according to AFP.
South Korea’s metal workers’ union said it will launch a full strike from December 11th unless President Yoon steps down, according to Yonhap.
BoK Governor Rhee suggests more rate cuts are unlikely respite the turmoil; adds “political certainty may have actually increased”; not changing economic outlook, via Bloomberg TV.
South Korea’s Defence Minister offers to resign, according to Yonhap.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Nov) 51.5 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.0); Composite PMI 52.3 (Prev. 51.9)
Australian Real GDP QQ SA (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); YY SA 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%)
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC stocks subdued, South Korea underperformed after the martial law declaration and backtrack – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 01:20 AM
APAC stocks were mostly subdued with underperformance in South Korea following the martial law declaration and backtrack.
South Korean President Yoon announced on Tuesday the lifting of martial law after parliament voted to block it.
European equity futures are indicative of a quiet cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Tuesday.
USD is mixed vs. peers, AUD lags post-Australian GDP data, EUR/USD lingers just above 1.05.
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, French Government No Confidence Motion, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde & Cipollone, Fed’s Powell & Musalem, Supply from UK & Germany.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3.US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mixed with price action in futures choppy as there was initial pressure in the US morning and T-notes caught a bid after South Korean President Yoon declared martial law to clear out pro-North Korean elements, although the moves in both stocks and bonds were later pared as South Korea’s President and Cabinet ultimately reversed the decision.
SPX +0.05% at 6,050, NDX +0.31% at 21,229, DJIA -0.17% at 44,706, RUT -0.73% at 2,416.
Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said the US economy is in a really good place and a December rate cut is absolutely not off the table, while she added the timing of a rate cut is up for debate and they need to keep moving the policy rate down, as well as keep an open mind. Daly said they knew inflation would be a bumpy ride and it is moving down gradually, but there is more work to do. Furthermore, she said even if the Fed does another rate cut, policy will remain restrictive.
Fed’s Kugler (voter) said current Fed policy is well-positioned to deal with uncertainties and will vigilantly monitor for risks and negative supply shocks that may undo progress in reducing inflation. Furthermore, she said policy is not on a pre-set course and will make decisions meeting by meeting.
Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said inflation data is a noisy series, over the next year, and rates should come down a fair amount from where they are now, while his belief that rates will and should come down is rooted in the read that inflation is coming down.
US President-elect Trump is considering Florida Governor Desantis as a possible replacement for Pete Hegseth as his pick for Defence Secretary. It was later reported that Senator Earnst of Iowa is among the names under consideration to replace Hegseth as pick to lead the Pentagon, while other Trump allies are floating Senator Hagerty of Tennessee for the role, according to CNN.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he is confident funding will be done by the deadline.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly subdued with underperformance in South Korea following the martial law declaration and backtrack.
ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in real estate, defensives and financials, while Australian GDP data disappointed.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the lack of Japan-specific catalysts.
KOSPI underperformed following South Korean President Yoon’s martial law declaration and subsequent backtracking which has led to calls from within the party to step down and an effort by opposition parties to impeach him for treason.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lacked conviction after somewhat mixed PMI data in which Chinese Caixin Services PMI missed forecasts but Caixin Composite PMI accelerated, while trade frictions also lingered after China’s MOFCOM banned the export of “dual-use items” relating to gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the US.
US equity futures (ES +0.2%) steadily edged higher after whipsawing during the prior session alongside South Korea’s martial law fiasco.
European equity futures are indicative of a quiet cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Tuesday.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korean President Yoon announced on Tuesday the lifting of martial law after parliament voted to block it.
South Korean ruling party leaders urged President Yoon to resign from the party and the ruling party leader saw the need to oust the defence chief and suggested that Yoon be kicked out of the party although ruling party lawmakers had various views and were undecided on Yoon’s departure from the party. Furthermore, the main opposition party announced it would seek to impeach President Yoon and it was also reported that South Korea’s Cabinet offered mass resignation.
BoK said it will increase short-term liquidity measures starting Wednesday and will loosen collateral policies in the repo operation to ease any bond market jitters, while it will deploy various measures to stabilise FX as needed and will make any special loans available to inject funds into the market if required.
South Korea’s regulator said it is ready to deploy the KRW 10tln stock market stabilisation fund anytime, according to Yonhap.
South Korean main labour union group called for a general strike until South Korean President Yoon resigns, according to AFP.
FX
DXY was rangebound despite the recent higher-than-expected JOLTS data and as Fed rhetoric continued to allude to further cuts ahead, while the attention turns to a slew of data releases including ADP, ISM Services and Factory Orders, as well as comments from Fed Chair Powell.
EUR/USD lingered around the 1.0500 level with gains limited as French PM Barnier faces a no-confidence vote later today.
GBP/USD slightly edged higher and eyes another attempt to reclaim the 1.2700 level ahead of comments from BoE Governor Bailey.
USD/JPY continued its rebound from yesterday’s trough and briefly reclaimed the 150.00 status but with gains capped by the indecisive risk sentiment in Japan and the lack of pertinent catalysts.
Antipodeans retreated with underperformance in AUD/USD following weaker-than-expected Australian GDP data for Q3 which saw money markets fully price an RBA rate cut for the April 2025 meeting.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2821 (prev. 7.1996)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures struggled for direction following the prior day’s choppy mood after South Korean President Yoon declared martial law but later rescinded the decision, while participants now await a slew of incoming data and comments from Fed Chair Powell.
Bund futures pulled back from a monthly high but with downside stemmed by support around 135.00 and ahead of a bund auction.
10yr JGB futures were initially indecisive amid a lack of catalysts from Japan but were then boosted on return from the Tokyo lunch break and broke through resistance around the 143.00 level.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures took a breather and remained afloat after gaining yesterday on several bullish factors including concerns surrounding the Israel/Hezbollah truce, expectations of OPEC+ extending supply cuts, refinery outages and fresh Iranian sanctions, while price action was not helped by the latest private sector inventory data which showed a surprise build in headline crude stockpiles.
Spot gold eked slight gains in quiet trade with price action restricted by an uneventful dollar.
Copper futures were subdued by the cautious risk appetite and following softer-than-expected Services PMI data from China.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was ultimately flat after failing to sustain an early surge to back above the USD 96,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US State Department said the US last month renewed a 120-day waiver allowing Iraq to purchase Iranian electricity.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Nov) 51.5 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.0)
Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Nov) 52.3 (Prev. 51.9)
Australian Real GDP QQ SA (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
Australian Real GDP YY SA (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Hamas said they have not received any new offer regarding the ceasefire in Gaza, according to Al-Arabiya.
Syrian army announced the entry of the largest military convoy to the countryside of Hama to support the forces deployed on the fronts, according to Al Arabiya.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian defence units were reportedly engaged in repelling a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiisk, while the report added that the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk is one of Russia’s most important oil export gateways.
OTHER
US and South Korea postponed planned defence talks and joint military exercises that were scheduled this week.
China’s Coast Guard said four Philippine Coast Guard ships attempted to enter China’s territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal and the ships dangerously approached China’s normal law enforcement patrol vessels, while it stated that China exercised control over the Philippine ships in accordance with the law. However, Philippine’s Coast Guard said Philippine vessels encountered aggressive actions from several Chinese Coast Guard vessels and the Chinese Coast Guard fired a water cannon against Philippine vessels, as well as “intentionally sideswiped” a Philippine vessel on the starboard side.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Holzmann sees the likelihood of a moderate rate cut in December. It was separately reported that Holzmann said a 25bps rate cut is conceivable in December and not more, while he added nothing is decided on the next rate move and it will depend on data available at the December meeting. Furthermore, he stated that US President-elect Trump is casting a shadow over inflation in Europe and will probably drive up the inflation forecast.
ECB policymaker and Bundesbank President Nagel said the German economy faces a weak outlook and 2025 is likely to be another year of weak growth, while he also called for a softer debt brake to ramp up investment, according to FT.
French President Macron said he will not resign before his mandate ends in 2027 and believes Le Pen will not join the left to topple the government.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
China/
GM has enough of China: they will take a $5 billion charge, and close plants as part of a major China restructuring
(zerohedge)
GM To Take More Than $5 Billion Charge, Close Plants, As Part Of China Restructuring
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 09:40 AM
This morning, General Motors announced it will take over $5 billion in noncash charges and write-downs to address its declining business in China, reflecting the challenges faced by global automakers in the world’s largest car market, according to Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal.
A company 8-K filed ahead of today’s GM investor presentation said:
On December 2, 2024, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company concluded a material impairment of the Company’s interest in SGM was required based on a determination that a material loss in value of our investments in certain of the China JVs is other than temporary in light of the finalization of a new business forecast and certain restructuring actions that SGM is finalizing that are expected to be taken to address market challenges and competitive conditions.
These charges include a $2.9 billion writedown of its joint venture with Chinese partner SAIC Motor Corp. and $2.7 billion related to restructuring costs, such as factory closures and the discontinuation of unprofitable vehicle models, follow up reporting noted.
The moves come after years of dwindling market performance. GM, which once sold over four million vehicles annually in China at its 2017 peak, has seen sales nearly halve by 2023.
Profitability has plummeted, with a $347 million loss reported in the first nine months of 2023, compared to a $2 billion profit in 2017. The downturn is largely attributed to the rise of domestic Chinese automakers like BYD, which have benefitted from government subsidies and a surge in demand for electric vehicles.
The restructuring aims to stabilize GM’s joint venture with SAIC, which produces Buicks, Chevrolets, and Cadillacs, and restore profitability without requiring additional capital investment from GM.
Recall, back in August we noted that GM was cutting jobs amidst a “larger structural overhaul” in China. At the time we noted the shift indicated GM likely wouldn’t eclipse its peak sales in the country it set in 2017.
Earlier this year they announced they were reducing staff in their China-focused departments, including research and development. At the time, GM and its partner SAIC were expected to discuss potential capacity cuts.
Bloomberg wrote this summer that the overhaul marked a significant change for GM, which once made billions in the Chinese market.
Despite the writedowns, GM says it remains optimistic about the venture’s future viability, though the new valuation underscores reduced expectations for earnings in the region.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
what a bunch of morons!
(Mish Shedlock)
UK Pays Wind Farms $1.3 Billion To Shut Down When It’s Windy
Burgeoning capacity and blustery weather should have driven huge growth in output in 2024. But the grid can’t cope, forcing the operator to pay wind farms to turn off, a cost ultimately borne by consumers. It’s a situation that puts at risk plans to decarbonize the network by 2030 and makes it harder to cut bills.
Crucial to the net zero grid target is a massive build-out of renewable power, particularly from wind. Britain has boosted its offshore fleet by 50% in the past five years and is set to double it in the next five, Bloomberg data show.
But the grid hasn’t expanded at the same pace. As a result, the operator is increasingly paying wind farms, particularly those in Scotland, not to run. So far this year, the UK has spent more than £1 billion ($1.3 billion) in “congestion costs” to turn off plants that can’t deliver electricity because of grid constraints, and switch on others.
Last month for example, when Storm Bert swept across the UK, some of its newest and biggest wind parks were still. Scotland’s £3 billion Seagreen project, owned by SSE Plc and TotalEnergies SE, was shut off. SSE’s Viking development on the Shetland Islands was also closed.
Wind vs Gas
UK generators usually sell output in advance on the wholesale market. But those transactions don’t take into account the physical limitations of balancing supply and demand in real time. To keep the lights on, the operator steps in, paying some plants to turn off and others that are closer to demand centers to fire up.
Often, this means shutting off a far-flung wind farm and starting up a gas-fed plant that’s closer to a city.
Absurd Setup
“It’s absurd that Britain pays Scottish wind farms to turn off when it’s windy, while simultaneously paying gas-power stations in the south to turn on,” said Clem Cowton, director of external affairs at supplier Octopus Energy Group.
I don’t believe we need an energy director to diagnose the complete absurdity of this arrangement.
Which of These Headlines Are Real?
Southern Wife Arrested for Failing to Serve Drinks in Mason Jars
UK Pays Wind Farms $1.3 Billion to Shut Down When It’s Windy
FBI Warns Kash Appointment Could Jeopardize Efforts to Not Release Epstein List
Trump Renews Relations with Castro Regime
It is sometimes very difficult to distinguish between real and fake headlines.
In the above list, only number 2 is real. The others are from the Babylon Bee.
Wind Losses Are Huge
General Electric (GE): GE’s offshore wind business expects to lose about $1 billion in 2023 and 2024. This is due to a number of challenges, including:
Inflation
High interest rates
Supply chain bottlenecks
Rising costs for components
Siemens: Lost nearly $1 billion on wind last year
Vestas: Saw an operating profit decline of 369%
Increased costs: Commodity prices, including for steel and copper, have increased, as well as construction and operating costs
Regulatory process: The regulatory process takes about six years, while other countries are building projects at a faster pace
Lawsuits and disinformation: Lawsuits from advocacy groups and disinformation campaigns from astroturfing groups have slowed development
The amount of offshore wind generating capacity that is under construction or planned in the United States is in flux after two projects in New Jersey were canceled last year. Of the 7,200 megawatts (MW) of capacity reported in May in EIA’s latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, projects totaling about 2,400 MW have been canceled since last December while others totaling 4,800 MW remain active in various stages of development.
Cancelled Projects
In late 2023, developer Orsted canceled the 2,400-MW Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects in New Jersey, citing rising interest rates, high inflation, and supply chain delays.
In January, Orsted withdrew from commitments to the Maryland Public Service Commission to build the Skipjack 1 and 2 projects, totaling 966 MW, but is still continuing with advanced development and permitting.
Late last year, the developer of the 20-MW Icebreaker Wind project on the Ohio coast of Lake Erie halted the project amid rising costs and loss of funding.
Another significant hurdle for offshore wind development in the U.S. involves a century-old law known as the Jones Act.
The Jones Act requires vessels carrying cargo between U.S. points to be U.S.-built, U.S.-operated and U.S.-owned. It was written to boost the shipping industry after World War I. However, there are only three offshore wind turbine installation vessels in the world that are large enough for the turbines proposed for U.S. projects, and none are compliant with the Jones Act.
That means wind turbine components must be transported by smaller barges from U.S. ports and then installed by a foreign installation vessel waiting offshore, which raises the cost and likelihood of delays.
Trump failed to kill the Jones Act in his first term. Will he do so now?
Because of the Jones Act, the US has the highest shipping costs in the world.
Dear DOGE, please look into this. It’s a high-priority item for reasons other than turbines.
Wind Turbine Average Price of Key Critical Materials
Bloomberg: “As the price of construction climbs, developers are rapidly revising their plans — at great cost.“
Material costs have risen, labor costs have risen, the cost of money has shot up, and opposition to projects has risen.
Cancellations show these projects, at least the offshore ones, are hugely unprofitable even with big subsidies.
Has anyone truly factored in the mineral costs, concrete needed, and environmental impacts on birds and marine life, especially whales?
Mish Economic Rule
Except in cases of genuine national security interest, if a project cannot post a profit without subsidies, then it is not economical and should not be undertaken.
Wind turbines are not a national security item. Thus, developers should proceed at their own risk, not US taxpayer risk.
Dear DOGE request #2. Please cancel all subsidies.
Thus, Trump’s 50 percent tariff threats on China will do one of two things, perhaps both: Block all rare earth exports from China or start WWIII.
Good luck with that.
Oh, I forgot to add: Trade wars are good and easy to win.
END
GERMANY/RUSSIA
Russian Ship Fires Warning Shots At German Military Helicopter In Baltic Sea
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 11:10 AM
In a rare dangerous incident and close-call, European media reports have described that the crew of a Russian ship ‘fired’ upon a Germany army helicopter which was monitoring the vessel’s movements in the Baltic Sea.
“German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced increased surveillance in the Baltic Sea after a Russian ship fired at a Bundeswehr helicopter during a mission,” EuroNewswrites.
The Bundeswehr helicopter was confirmed to have been on a reconnaissance mission at an unclear date and time, but the Russian ship – described in The Daily Mail as a warship – fired signaling ammunition in an apparent effort to warn the aircraft off.
Baerbock disclosed the incident for the first time on the sidelines of a NATO foreign minister’s meeting in Brussels, but gave few other details.
“Signal ammunition is used for warning shots rather than attack, but this sort of incident is a sign of how close NATO and Russia are getting to facing each other directly,” Daily Mail concludes.
Currently there’s a lot of Western monitoring of the Baltic Sea after several communications cables which link Finland, Sweden, Germany, and Lithuania were severed in a suspected sabotage incident.
Allegations and focus have remained on the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 which was observed in the area at the time of the suspected sabotage. It’s believed to have intentionally dragged its anchor to damage the underwater cables. The Swedish government has demanded answers of Beijing.
Tensions have been soaring of late between Berlin and Moscow, given Baerbock on Tuesday also told NATO allies that all options are on the table regarding the Ukraine war, presumably even the potential for deploying Western troops there.
Russian state media has picked up on her hinting at this scenario:
She suggested that a potential peace deal could include security guarantees for Kiev, such as the prospect of NATO membership and continued military support from the West, as well as an international peacekeeping mission.
Asked about what military role Germany could play in such a deal, Baerbock was quoted by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) as saying that “only we as Europeans can protect peace together,” suggesting that EU countries, including Germany, could send their soldiers to Ukraine.
The Kremlin is unlikely to ever accept a deal which puts NATO ‘peacekeeping’ forces even closer on its doorstep. Thus Russian officials are deeply suspicious of any talk of peacekeeping troops.
With the Russian army on the offensive, making continual and steady gains in the Donbas, Putin is not going to be in the mood to concede much if and when direct negotiations finally happen.
END
FRANCE
French Government falls!
(zerohedge)
French Government Falls As PM Barnier Loses Confidence Vote
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 02:30 PM
What seemed like a foregone conclusion is now confirmed – French PM Barnier just lost a no-confidence vote (with 331 votes – 288 was needed) forcing his government’s resignation and Macron to appoint a new premier
The debate before the vote was lively with RN’s Le Pen blasting Barnier’s budget and making it clear he was dead in the water.
“It’s the end of this ephemeral government,” Le Pen declares.
Much of her comments are focused on taxes in Barnier’s budget, saying it was “all about taxes, taxes and more taxes.”
“Where’s all the money? The French want to know,” she said.
“To those who think I’m intent on choosing a policy of disaster through a vote of no confidence, I want to tell them that the disastrous policy would be not to censure such a budget, such a government,” Le Pen says.
Boris Vallaud, the head of the Socialists in parliament called Barnier’s budget “unjust and inefficient” and confirmed he would vote against Barnier.
France unbowed’s Coquerel slammed the government for not making enough compromises on the budget and confirms his party is supporting the no-confidence motion put forth by the leftist coalition.
The prime minister notes that the same issues will confront the next government if his is toppled, saying he would have “liked to have distributed money even though there isn’t any.”
“This won’t disappear with the magic of a no-confidence motion.”
What happens next?
First, Barnier would tender the resignation of the government; his outgoing cabinet would remain in place with limited powers to manage current affairs.
This caretaker administration continues until Macron appoints a new premier. There is no constitutional time limit for this decision — and it took Macron nearly two months to select Barnier.
During the interregnum, the government would likely rely on untested emergency legislation to collect taxes and deliver vital spending.
Once named, a new prime minister would propose a cabinet to be appointed by the president, and that new government would present a 2025 budget to parliament
Macron has a history of finding unexpected people to be prime minister – and of changing his mind at last minute.
Here are some names circulating in Paris that could become the next premier:
Bernard Cazeneuve, 61: Former French prime minister and interior minister under Socialist President Francois Hollande. Already considered as a possible PM this summer, picking him could help Macron fracture the left-wing bloc by capitalizing on Cazeneuve’s ties to his former party.
Sébastien Lecornu, 38: A skilled politician who in 2022 became the youngest defense minister since the French Revolution. He’s a Macron loyalist who’s originally from the center-right Republicans party.
François Bayrou, 73: The veteran centrist leads the MoDem party, a key ally for Macron in parliament. Currently the high commissioner for government planning, Bayrou supports proportional representation in parliamentary elections, which has also been a request of the National Rally.
Jean Castex, 59: A former prime minister under Macron known for his southern French accent and management skills. He is currently the head of the RATP, the state-owned company that operates the Paris metro.
On whether Macron should remain in office, Le Pen said that “it’s up to his conscience to decide whether he can sacrifice public action and the fate of France to his own pride.” She added:
“If he decides to stay, he will be forced to acknowledge that he is the President of a Republic that is no longer entirely at peace with itself.”
He can serve out his full term until 2027 and said only yesterday that this is exactly what he plans to do.
“I’ve been elected twice by the French people, and I’m extremely proud of that,” Macron said during a trip to Saudi Arabia.
“I’ll honor that trust with all my energy, right up to the last second.”
The euro was at the highs of the day ahead of the vote (which makes all the sense in the world to someone), but dropped on the inevitable result…
Spreads were near the lows of the day ahead of the vote, but started to creep higher as the debate neared the end. The bond markets closed before the vote…
Aberdeen Investments’ Alex Everett suggests that French 10-year yields would likely move toward 100 basis points over Germany, notably above current levels, citing “continued malaise, a dearth of decision making and insufficient progress toward debt sustainability.”
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Tuesday night: Hezbollah -Syrian envoy, Jamaa, eliminated in a targeted Damascus strike
(JerusalemPost)
IAF eliminates Hezbollah’s Syrian envoy in targeted Damascus strike
Jamaa is a veteran Hezbollah operative who has held several positions with the Hezbollah terrorist organization throughout the years, particularly with a focus on Syria.
People carry Hezbollah flags at a damaged site in Beirut’s southern suburbs, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, in Beirut, Lebanon November 27, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
An Israel Air Force aircraft attacked and eliminated Hezbollah’s envoy to the Syrian army, Salman Nimr Jamaa, the IDF announced Tuesday afternoon.
The Syrian regime, which has established support for Hezbollah throughout the years and allows the use of their country for the transfer of weapons, heavily utilized Jamaa and hereby endangered the lives of Lebanese and Syrian civilians alike.
Jamaa is a veteran Hezbollah operative who has held several positions with the Hezbollah terrorist organization throughout the years, particularly with a focus on Syria.
What was his role as envoy to Syria for Hezbollah?
Jamaa held several roles within the Hezbollah terror organization, including as head of intelligence in the Al-Khayyam sector, then head of operations at Hezbollah’s Damascus headquarters. He later was appointed as Hezbollah’s envoy to the Syrian army.
People inspect a damaged area in the aftermath of what Syrian state media reported was an Israeli strike in the Mezzah suburb, west of Damascus, Syria October 9, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/FIRAS MAKDESI)
His role allowed him to collaborate between Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad’s regime’s Syrian military officials. Within his role, he aided the transfer of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah amid the Swords of Iron war.
Jamaa was also close with Syrian state officials, becoming an active figure in the country, the IDF noted.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/opinion
Hezbollah is surely weakened and we can view this by the problems Syria has, They would always count on Hezbollah to aid in their distress. Not now
The Hezbollah threat: Weakened, but not gone – opinion
Israel has reduced Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities to such an extent that many don’t understand why it would agree to stop when the terror group has been reduced to a pile of rubble.
By ZINA RAKHAMILOVADECEMBER 4, 2024 03:01Updated: DECEMBER 4, 2024 05:15
IDF SOLDIERS and tanks positioned near a road close to the Israel-Lebanon border last week, after the ceasefire was declared. Assessing whether this is a good outcome for Israel is complicated; it cannot be viewed as a permanent arrangement, rather, as a tactical pause, the writer maintains.(photo credit: STOYAN NENOV/REUTERS)
‘Why doesn’t Israel just finish the job?” This is the question everyone has been asking since Israel announced its agreement to a US-brokered ceasefire with Lebanon after 416 days of cross-border fighting.
Israel has reduced Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities to such an extent that many don’t understand why it would agree to stop when the terror group has been reduced to a pile of rubble.
The current agreement serves as a framework for a long-term ceasefire in which the Lebanese army and the government of Lebanon (along with UNIFIL) will be the only armed groups south of the Litani River. This effectively establishes a buffer zone to inhibit Hezbollah and other armed groups from attacking Israel.
Any rational observer knows that Israel cannot trust Hezbollah or any international body to control Hezbollah’s actions. Indeed, Lebanon has been unsuccessful in binding Hezbollah to its will. So, what is the rationale behind this agreement, and why does Israel believe this is the right move for its security?
Israel’s primary goal
The reason is simple: Israel’s primary goal was to neutralize Hezbollah as a strategic threat, which it has largely accomplished. Demanding that Israel “finish the job” by fully eradicating the terror group would require Israel to take over Lebanon – an outcome Israel does not desire.
IDF soldiers operate in southern Lebanon, November 29, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
The most serious threat Israel faced was the possibility of a border breach and mass infiltration by Hezbollah. The terror group had the capability to amass up to 15,000 fighters near the border, ready to breach it in a surprise attack similar to what Hamas did on October 7.
Reports have indicated that Hezbollah planned to overrun northern kibbutzim and kidnap Israeli hostages, which could have resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians. According to Israel, this threat has been entirely eliminated, and with proper surveillance, Hezbollah will have no opportunity to rebuild this capability.
Israel estimates it has degraded Hezbollah by 80%. Even if accurate, this still means Hezbollah remains three times stronger than Hamas. Hezbollah was believed to possess approximately 100,000 short-range rockets capable of overwhelming northern Israel’s defenses. However, Israel believes most of these rockets – and the personnel trained to operate them – have been neutralized.
Hezbollah’s arsenal also included around 20,000 long-range missiles and drones, the majority of which have reportedly been destroyed. Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah still possesses thousands of drones and tens of thousands of rockets, including precision-guided missiles capable of reaching any location in Israel. This agreement cannot, therefore, be seen as a conclusive end to the terror group’s threat.
Many understand that even if Israel were to take control of Lebanon to eradicate Hezbollah – which would also require destroying their bases in northern Lebanon – it would not address the real problem: Hezbollah’s financiers in Tehran. Hezbollah’s primary raison d’être is to serve as a deterrent for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Even now, the Israel Defense Forces report that Hezbollah is attempting to smuggle weapons into Lebanon via civilian border crossings with Syria. Several Israeli strikes in Lebanon have targeted threats that violated the ceasefire agreement.
As many know, about 60,000 Israelis from northern communities have been evacuated for over 420 days, living as refugees in their own country. Many have lost businesses and livelihoods. Some communities have been heavily damaged by Hezbollah rocket fire, and large cities like Kiryat Shmona have been reduced to desolate ghost towns.
One of Israel’s key war aims in the North was to safely return residents to their homes without the constant fear of rocket bombardments, which have killed so many in these communities.
Whether this ceasefire accomplishes that aim remains a significant question. It will take time for northern residents to regain trust in the government and the army’s ability to keep them safe.
Assessing whether this ceasefire deal is a good outcome for Israel is complicated. As it stands, it cannot be viewed as a permanent arrangement but rather as a tactical pause in a long and ongoing struggle.
Israel’s decision to agree to the ceasefire with Hezbollah is rooted in a complex balance of pragmatism and necessity. While it has successfully neutralized significant elements of Hezbollah’s infrastructure and strategic capabilities, the underlying threats remain unresolved.
Ultimately, the question isn’t just whether Israel should “finish the job” with Hezbollah but whether the international community will finally recognize the danger posed by Iran’s proxies and take meaningful steps to address the violence and threat that the Islamic Republic poses. Israel cannot – and should not – carry this burden alone.
The writer is the co-founder and CEO of Social Lite Creative, a digital marketing firm that specializes in geopolitics.
END
ISRAEL///HAMAS HOSTAGES/
Isolated Hamas faces collapsing negotiating stance after drastic Trump threat
Terror group pinned hopes of salvation on the Iranian axis and world pressure on Israel, but now has just a few weeks until an unpredictable and angry US president returns
Former US president Donald Trump appears at Manhattan criminal court in New York, May 20, 2024. (Steven Hirsch/ New York Post via AP, Pool)
Earlier this week, two days after Hamas released a propaganda video showing American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander pleading with Donald Trump to secure his release, the American president-elect typed out a message that was sure to make the terror group and its backers in Iran take notice.
“Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire world, in the Middle East – but it’s all talk and no action!” Trump wrote Monday on his Truth Social platform, without mentioning Israel or the Palestinian terror group by name.
“Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” he continued.
The message was posted by a famously voluble leader, but it should not be underestimated.
It comes at the worst possible time for Hamas, and could be what is needed to finally break the terror group’s unwillingness to recognize the weakness of its position in hostage talks.
Sinwar’s three bets
For much of the duration of war that erupted on October 7, 2023, Hamas — under the guidance of the late Yahya Sinwar — believed its bargaining position was only improving with time. Once its leaders recognized they had withstood the height of Israel’s military offensive in early 2024, Hamas staked its hopes on three developments.
First, Sinwar and his senior aides hoped throughout that the expansion of the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran would force Israel to sue for a ceasefire in Gaza in order to avoid a multifront war that would exact too high a toll on its soldiers and home front.
Yemenis brandish rifles and hold a picture of slain Hamas leader Yahia Sinwar during a rally in solidarity with Gaza in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa on November 29, 2024. (Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP)
Second, they also believed that international pressure — from the US and Western allies, the United Nations and bodies like the international courts in The Hague — would force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a hostage deal that would leave Hamas standing in Gaza, and in a position to rebuild both its grip on the territory and its military force.
“We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar told other Hamas leaders, according to a June report in The Wall Street Journal. The higher the civilian death toll in Gaza, the more pressure would be put on Israel, he said.
Government hostage point-man Gal Hirsch argued in a recent speech that there was a “direct and immediate connection between pressure on Israel and Hamas’s appetite for negotiations.”
Gal Hirsch, the government’s point-man on missing and kidnapped citizens, attends a discussion about Israelis being held hostage in Gaza by the Hamas terror group, in Jerusalem, April 10, 2024. (Oren Ben Hakoon/Flash90)
“Hamas identifies every ‘daylight,’ every sliver of light, and whenever it identifies ideas like ‘we won’t give you ammunition,’ arms embargoes, removing reservations about the ICC [cases], this doesn’t help us to reach hostage deal,” Hirsch said at Reichman University.
As for the third factor, Sinwar, a close observer of Israeli politics, had certainly noticed the growing domestic anger at Netanyahu as the months passed. Protests by hostages’ families and their allies merged with anti-Netanyahu demonstrations, and a growing number of Israelis were calling for an end to the war without Hamas routed — if it meant the hostages would come home.
Protesters marching in the central Israeli city of Rehovot call for the release of hostages held captive by the Hamas terror group in Gaza. (Roby Yahav/Pro-Democracy Protest Movement)
Shortly before his death in mid-October, Sinwar told Hamas’s leadership that a long war against Israel was beneficial. “The longer it lasts, the closer we get to liberation,” senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan recounted Sinwar saying.
Sinwar is now dead, but those making decisions in his place did not immediately seem willing to make any major concessions, either — at least not until recent developments knocked the pillars out from under Hamas’s position.
Troops of the Kfir Brigade operate in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahiya, in a handout photo issued on December 2, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Tables turning
When Hezbollah began assaulting Israel to support Hamas in October 2023, it vowed to continue to do so as long as the war in Gaza continued. This past September, Jerusalem reached the limit of its patience and launched a massive offensive against the group. After being hammered by Israel via air, ground, and pager, the wounded terror militia last week threw in the towel without a ceasefire in Gaza, abandoning its previous position and leaving Hamas in the lurch.
And though Iran’s willingness to strike Israel directly with ballistic missiles twice in the past year was sure to raise Hamas’s hopes of salvation, Tehran has so far not made good on its promise to strike a third time. And with the Bashar Assad regime in Syria under new military pressure from rebels, the Islamic Republic appears to have its hands full trying to avoid losing another key member of its axis.
A Syrian official flag lies on the ground as opposition fighters stand on the tarmac of the Aleppo international airport in Aleppo, December 2. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)
Following Trump’s victory in the US elections, international pressure on Israel is likely to wane, with Netanyahu expecting a more reliable veto in the United Nations Security Council, a quicker flow of key weapons and intense pressure on the International Criminal Court as it goes after the Israeli leadership.
Domestic opposition to Netanyahu isn’t going to push him to a deal either. Firing defense minister Yoav Gallant removed the chief internal advocate of an urgent deal, and bringing in Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party stabilized the coalition.
Perhaps, over time, the protest movement’s pressure on Netanyahu, with its carefully chosen slogan of “Bring them home now!” could have gained enough traction in the public.
But Hamas no longer has time on its side.
The pressure is on
In a little over six weeks, Trump’s deadline will arrive. His slogan, which puts the onus squarely on Hamas, seems to be “Release them now!”
It’s not clear what Trump might do to back up his threat, but his disdain for norms makes his ultimatum credible in the region. He could make Iran pay for Hamas’s intransigence through sanctions, strikes on oil and gas sites, or even attacks on Revolutionary Guards forces and Shia militias outside Iran.
Trump is unlikely to order strikes against Hamas itself in Gaza, where Israel is handling the fighting. However, he could see to it that Hamas leaders abroad have no comfortable home in the region, and could provide Israel with the means to target them as they flee Turkey and other countries they’ve called home in recent years.
And, of course, he could give Israel the green light to carry out new, stepped-up raids in Gaza, with less concern for humanitarian aid reaching civilians.
Netanyahu on Tuesday unsurprisingly hailed Trump’s “very strong statement,” noting that the US president-elect had made it clear “that there is one party responsible for this situation — and that is Hamas. Hamas must release the hostages.” Trump, said an appreciative Netanyahu, “put the emphasis in the right place — on Hamas, and not on the Israeli government, as is customary in some places.”
Apparent cracks in Hamas’s resolve have already been showing. Last week, The New York Times reported that the group was expressing increased flexibility in its demands.
Citing two people familiar with the terror group’s thinking, the report said leaders of the terror group have been discussing allowing Israel to maintain a temporary presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the strategic border area between Egypt and Gaza where Netanyahu has insisted Israel must retain control.
View of the Philadelphi Corridor, the Egypt-Gaza border area in southern Gaza’s Rafah, October 20, 2024. (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
According to the New York Times report, “reality started to sink in” for Hamas after Sinwar’s death in October, as it became clear that Iran was not looking to enter into direct conflict with Israel, and that Hezbollah was being hit hard by the IDF.
But even in Hamas’s new, perilous reality, the fundamental gulf separating Israel’s red lines from Hamas’s core demands remains. The terror group continues to insist that in any hostage-release deal, the IDF will end up fully withdrawing from Gaza, and Hamas leaders and operatives will remain in the Strip, poised to slowly rebuild themselves over time. Israel sees that outcome as a loss, letting the perpetrators of October 7 survive and threaten it once more.
Now, with Trump making his desires crystal clear, Hamas has a decision to make.
It could use the next few weeks to get the best deal it can, allowing Israel to retain a much-reduced troop presence in Gaza, which it hopes will disappear in time under domestic or international pressure, when other countries increasingly see IDF forces in Gaza as part of an occupation that stands in the way of the Strip’s reconstruction.
Or it can continue to hold on to the hostages and the hope that Netanyahu will eventually break, while it faces the unpredictable commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military — a man who famously doesn’t like being refused.
END
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
(JERUSALEMPOST)
Security forces detain Hamas operative involved in deadly shooting attack in Jordan Valley
Members of police’s elite Yamam counter-terrorism unit and the Shin Bet security agency detained this evening a Hamas terrorist who was part of a cell that carried out a deadly shooting attack in the Jordan Valley in the summer, Israeli defense authorities say.
Ayman Ghanem was arrested by Israeli special forces who raided a hospital in the West Bank city of Nablus this evening.
According to the Shin Bet, police, and IDF, Ghanem was the third member of a Hamas cell that carried out a shooting attack on August 11 at the Mehola Junction on Route 90, the main north-south artery in the Jordan Valley, killing Yonatan Deutsch, 23, and wounding Anas Jaramana, 32.
Since the deadly attack, Ghanem continued to advance attacks as the head of a terror cell, and he posed a threat, Israeli authorities say.
Ghanem had been wounded in an Israeli drone strike yesterday near the West Bank village of Aqabah. The strike killed three other Hamas gunmen who the military said were planning “imminent attacks.”
After being wounded in the strike, Ghanem was taken to a hospital in Nablus, where he was nabbed this evening by the special forces.
The joint police, Shin Bet and IDF statement says the operation was carefully planned, “with the aim of preventing harm to patients and medical staff at the hospital.”
The military also reveals that on October 9, a Palestinian gunman named Abd al-Arouf Masri who was killed in an exchange of fire in the Jordan Valley, also participated in the August terror attack.
Earlier this week, the head of the Hamas cell behind the attack, Wael Lahlouh, was killed in an IDF drone strike near Jenin alongside three other gunmen.
ISRAEL.HAMAS/WEST BANK
How Israeli’s are going after terrorists in the West Bank. Today: Bethlehem
(JerusalemPost)
Reporter’s Notebook: Israeli forces detain terror suspects in overnight ops in Bethlehem
The ‘Post’ went along with IDF soldiers for raids with the IDF in Aida and Azza camps in Bethlehem.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANDECEMBER 3, 2024 21:18Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 22:00
IDF soldiers of the Tavor Battalion of the Search and Rescue Brigade and 8208 Reserve Battalion take part in an operation of Etzion Brigade to detain suspects in Aida and Azza camps in Bethlehem on December 3.(photo credit: SETH J. FRANTZMAN)
The IDF conducted a series of overnight raids late Monday night and into early Tuesday morning in areas around Bethlehem. During the operation, troops detained wanted individuals, interrogated dozens of suspects, and searched and found weapons and incitement materials, the IDF said.
The Jerusalem Post accompanied the soldiers during raids on several multistory residential buildings.Troops combed several neighborhoods, searching for suspects. Female combat soldiers took up positions in alleyways and went door-to-door in the precision operation.
It was biting cold as the forces looked for and successfully detained the suspects in the dead of night. The streets of Bethlehem were quiet, with only the barking of a few dogs audible as the troops moved quietly from place to place.The IDF conducts this type of operation often to keep terrorists in check and make it clear that Israel’s security forces are one step ahead of its enemies.
The raids were aimed at sites in Aida and Azza, neighborhoods north of Bethlehem that emerged from refugee camps established in the 1950s.
Refugee camps in Bethlehem and other areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip have often been recruiting grounds for terrorist groups, including Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
IDF soldiers of the Tavor Battalion of the Search and Rescue Brigade and 8208 Reserve Battalion take part in an operation of Etzion Brigade to detain suspects in Aida and Azza camps in Bethlehem on December 3. (credit: SETH J. FRANTZMAN)
Challenging areas
These areas present a challenge because the buildings often have multiple entrances and numerous small apartments with what seems like endless locked iron doors to a warren of courtyards. Soldiers have to navigate all this while keeping watch down alleyways and overhead for threats.
The soldiers, part of the Etzion Brigade, prepared for the operation prior to 12 a.m. at a base in Gush Etzion. They included members of the Tavor Battalion of the Search and Rescue Brigade, which includes numerous female combat soldiers.
I accompanied them. Most of the soldiers were women, carrying their M-16 rifles and moving quickly to reach their objectives and search for suspects. The operation was accompanied by reservists from the 8208th Infantry Battalion.
During the operation, we saw how soldiers work as part of a small team to search for suspects. All of this was conducted prior to sunrise, with the goal being to detain the suspects as quickly and quietly as possible during the night.
This reduces friction and contact with the civilian population in the area. It also means that those affected by the raid are mostly residents of the buildings where the suspects live.
In our case, the soldiers often had to knock on several doors to find the suspects they wanted. When the young men were found, they were escorted to a waiting military vehicle before being taken to a central collection point, where other detainees from various raids in the area were also taken.
These kinds of routine operations are designed to keep terrorist groups and threats in check by remaining one step ahead of them. The area of the Etzion Brigade’s operations, which includes Bethlehem and other Palestinian towns, has not seen the kind of increase in terrorist threats that have occurred in the northern West Bank.
It wasn’t always like this, though. In decades past, there were numerous terrorists who took up positions in Beit Jala in the Second Intifada and operated from camps such as Dehaishe, Aida, and Azza in Bethlehem.
These days, things appear relatively quiet due to the operations that the soldiers are conducting.
The full story will appear in this weekend’s Magazine supplement.
In a nutshell: USA is in the Northeast stealing all of Syria’s oil. The Kurds are in the North West of Syria also taking oil located there. Turkey is due north of Syria. Erdogan for some reason has determined that the Kurds are terrorists to which they are not. Israel backs the Kurds and of course the uSA in the NorthWest. Russia and Iran support Assad. Turkey plays double agent as they are supporting the Syrian rebels. Now if Iran mercenaries want to come in from the east through Iraq, then Israel may have to block them. Israel, of course supports the rebels when though they are labelled as terrorists.
(JERUSALEM POST)
Why is Iran claiming the US and Israel are behind Syria escalation? – analysis
Iran wants the US to leave eastern Syria, where the US is fighting ISIS alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish force.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANDECEMBER 3, 2024 14:56Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 16:18
Rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive along a street in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Iran was initially shocked by how fast Syrian opposition groups had advanced in Idlib province late last month.Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni rebel group, led the advance and swept aside Syrian regime forces to take Aleppo.
Days later, it looked like HTS would also take Hama, a city on the road to Damascus. The rebels are now stalled outside Hama. Iran is gathering support for the Syrian regime.
“Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the developments on the ground in Syria indicate that there is complete coordination between the Zionist regime, the United States, and terrorist groups aimed at destabilizing the Arab country,” Iranian state media reported Tuesday.
Araghchi made his comments during a TV interview. The attack on Aleppo was a “plot” hatched by the US and Israel, according to the Iranians. Araghchi said the timing proves this.
“There is complete coordination between the Zionist regime, the US government, and terrorist groups, and the course of events indicates such coordination because these attacks followed a ceasefire in Lebanon,” he said.
A rebel led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands in the back of a vehicle in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Why does Iran see it this way? It cites the ceasefire in Lebanon on the eve of the attack by HTS. The Syrian opposition surprised the Syrian regime. This is because the regime was likely watching developments in Lebanon relating to the Israel-Hezbollah war.
Syria’s regime and Iran back Hezbollah. Once the ceasefire began, however, HTS launched its attack in northern Syria. In all likelihood, the defeat of Hezbollah by Israel contributed to the timing of the attack.
There is no evidence that the US and Israel are cheering over the attack by HTS. On the contrary, Israel may be concerned that chaos could develop in Syria. When there is chaos, there are threats to Israel, usually by Iranian-backed groups that exploit the vacuum in power.
Garnering support from Turkey and Russia
Nevertheless, Iran often claims conspiracies to justify its interventions. Tehran wants the US to leave eastern Syria, where the Americans are fighting ISIS alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish force.
Iran wants to use the current war against HTS to not just get the US to leave; it also wants to mobilize attacks against the SDF.
Turkey agrees with Iran’s view in this context. Ankara has used the HTS attack to mobilize Syrian militias to attack Kurds.
Iran believes it can spread conspiracies about Israel and the US to garner support in Ankara and Moscow.
“I had detailed and important discussions with Bashar al-Assad and conveyed the message of the Islamic Republic of Iran about its full and firm support and backing for the Syrian government and its president.”
Just as the Syrian government was with us during the imposed war, we will also be with this country,” Araghchi said, according to Iranian state media.
“It was decided to continue these consultations and resume the Astana process, he said while referring to his talks with the Turkish counterpart, adding that a meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey will be held in Doha probably next week,” the report said.
end
WEST BANK
Not good: rioting by settlers on “Palestinian land” IDF has destroyed Israeli buildings built on these lands
A home burned by rioting settlers in the West Bank village of Huwara, on December 4, 2024. (Courtesy Huwara residents via Yesh Din)
Several Israeli settlers were detained by troops for rioting and attacking Palestinians in the northern West Bank overnight and this morning, the military says.
The Kan public broadcaster reports that six people were detained. It is unclear if they are still being held.
Members of the Civil Administration and Border Police operated overnight to demolish illegal settler outpost construction near the Palestinian village of Beit Furik, close to Nablus. The illegal outpost construction was on private Palestinian land.
During the evacuation of the outpost, the IDF says, stones were hurled at the forces, injuring two Border Police officers.
A short while later, the settlers stormed Beit Furik, “set fire to property in the area and threw stones at the village,” according to the army.
In the nearby town of Huwara, settlers carried out another attack against Palestinians, setting fire to property and hurling stones.
Meanwhile, on the outskirts of Rujeib, another Palestinian village in the Nablus area, some 20 settlers gathered, the IDF says, apparently in preparation for another attack.
When IDF soldiers and Border Police troops arrived, the settlers clashed with the forces, the military says.
The IDF says “the incidents were dispersed and a number of Israelis were arrested” and handed over to police for further questioning.
“The IDF views any violence against its troops and members of the security forces, who work day and night for the security of the citizens of the area, very gravely,” the military says, adding that “these incidents must be condemned and those who break the law must be prosecuted.”
Prosecution in such cases is particularly rare, leading several Western countries to begin sanctioning Israeli extremists destabilizing the West Bank at the beginning of the year.
IDF: Hamas likely executed six hostages in Khan Yunis as soldiers drew near
The IDF said this meant that if the Hamas guards had not already shot the six hostages, the air force bombing probably would have killed them.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 4, 2024 16:39Updated: DECEMBER 4, 2024 16:56
The bodies of hostages Yagev Buchshtab, Alexander Dancyg, Avraham Munder, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell, and Haim Perry were recovered by the IDF from the Khan Yunis area in the Gaza Strip.(photo credit: Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
A comprehensive IDF probe has concluded that the military did not kill six hostages whose bodies were recovered from Khan Yunis on August 20 after having been kidnapped by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Rather, there were signs of gunfire on all six hostages’ bodies, such that they were likely killed by their Hamas guards.
However, there is room for uncertainty because, on February 14, the air force bombed the tunnel areas where the hostages were likely being kept, killing around six Hamas guards.
IDF sources admitted that this meant that if the Hamas guards had not already shot the six hostages, the air force bombing probably would have killed them.
Additional Hamas forces later encountered the bodies, but it appears they did not move them to a different area, believing that the IDF would not find them, which it did not for another six months.
People walk past a wall displaying posters of hostages, in Tel Aviv, Israel, August 18, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/FLORION GOGA)
These six hostages are different from a group of six hostages who were killed by Hamas in Tel Sultan in Rafah at a later date when the military was maneuvering close to where they were being held.
The six hostages were Nadav Popplewell, Yagev Buchshtab, Yoram Metzger, Haim Peri, Alexander Dancyg, and Avraham Munder.
In addition, the IDF disclosed the movements of the hostages as far as it knows up until their death.
According to the IDF, the six hostages were held along with a larger group of hostages in the largest underground Hamas command center in Gaza, in Khan Yunis, until the end of December.
This was the area with artificial turf and large numbers of cages as well as top senior Hamas leaders.
At the end of December, the six were separated from the other hostages as well as from the top Hamas leaders, and were moved to Hamad, a neighborhood four kilometers away from their earlier hiding spot in Khan Yunis.
This occurred as the IDF made breakthroughs in its invasion of Khan Yunis, which had started on December 1.
The IDF did not inject large numbers of soldiers into Hamad until months after it had taken over the rest of Khan Yunis proper.
On February 14, the IDF conducted air strikes against Hamas battalion commanders in the area where the hostages were being held underground.
The IDF believes that Hamas shot and killed them shortly before they themselves were killed.
Unlike the hostages, who had signs of gunfire on their bodies, the Hamas guards only had signs of airstrikes.
On June 3, the IDF confirmed four of the six were dead, even though it had not recovered the bodies.
By July 22, the IDF was able to confirm all six were dead.
The August 20 rescue operation was conducted by the IDF’s 98th Division and carried out by the Paratroopers Brigade, ‘Yahalom’ Unit, and the 75th Battalion, along with ISA forces. The operation was managed by military intelligence, ISA, and the IDF Intelligence Directorate Hostage Headquarters.
It was announced by Kibbutz Nirim earlier that the bodies of Popplewell and Buchshtab were retrieved from Gaza. Similarly, Kibbutz Nir Oz announced that the bodies of Peri, Metzger, and Dancyg were also retrieved. Munder was believed to be alive until Kibbutz Nir Oz announced his death while in Gaza captivity.
The National Institute of Forensic Medicine, Israel Police, and the IDF Manpower Directorate’s Hostage Team conducted an identification procedure of the bodies and notified their families and communities.
Nadav Popplewell
Popplewell, 51 years old, was kidnapped from Nirim on October 7. In June, the IDF announced he had been killed in Hamas captivity.
Kibbutz Nirim said that he loved books and science fiction.
Popplewell was taken hostage along with his mother, Channah Peri, who was released in the November 2023 hostage deal following 49 days in Gaza captivity. Both were taken from their home’s safe room. Popplewell’s brother Roi, aged 54, was murdered on October 7.
Yagev Buchshtab
Buchshtab, 35 years old, was seized from Kibbutz Nirim on October 7 along with his wife Rimon Kirsht Buchshtab, 36, who was released on November 28, 2023 as part of the hostage deal.
In July, the IDF announced he had been killed in Gaza captivity. Buchshtab was a sound technician and had a passion for music.
Yoram Metzger
Metzger, 80 years old, was seized from Nir Oz on October 7. In June, the IDF announced he had been killed while in Hamas captivity. He is survived by his wife, Tamar, who was kidnapped along with him and released in the November hostage deal, three children, and seven grandchildren.
At the kibbutz, Yoram worked in the Nirlat factory and as a kibbutz mechanic.
Haim Peri
Peri, 79, was kidnapped from kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7. In June, the IDF announced he had been killed in Hamas captivity.
“On the day of the massacre in the kibbutz, Haim managed to save his wife Asnat before being kidnapped himself. He survived in inhumane conditions in the Hamas tunnels for months, until he was brutally murdered in captivity,” the kibbutz wrote in a statement in August.
Peri was a father of five, a grandfather to 13, a peace activist, and the founder of an art gallery. He also taught at Sapir College.
Alexander Dancyg
Dancyg, 76 years old, was kidnapped from Nir Oz on October 7. In July, the IDF announced he had been killed in Gaza captivity.
Born to Holocaust survivors, Dancyg was an educator and historian who worked at Yad Vashem for nearly 30 years. He was one of the founders of educational delegations to Poland and led many of them.
Avraham Munder
Munder was kidnapped from kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7. Munder fought and was wounded in the Six-Day War, according to the Hostages and Missing Families Forum.
Munder’s nephew told KAN Reshet Bet earlier that his uncle’s body had been recovered from Gaza and that “it’s sad that a person who participated in liberating Jerusalem and answered the call to develop communities in the Negev had his life ended by being thrown aside in a tunnel in Khan Yunis.”
He lived in Kibbutz Nir Oz for more than 50 years and took part in the Eshkol choir.
He was kidnapped to the Gaza Strip on October 7 along with his wife Ruti, his daughter Keren, and his nine-year-old grandson Ohad, who was released in the November 2023 hostage deal following 49 days in captivity.
Gadi Zaig, Yael Helfon, and Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
IRAN/HAMAS/ISRAEL/USA
Trump to focus on hostages and Iran once he gets in
(JerusalemPost)
Trump administration to focus on hostages, Iran nuclear deal, says new Middle East advisor
“The president believes that the hostages must be released immediately and that there must be no further delay,” Boulos told Le Point. “
MANHATTAN, NY – SEP 4 : Dr. Massad Boulos, Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, sits for a portrait at the Wall Street Hotel in New York on Sep 4, 2024.(photo credit: Jeenah Moon for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The first priority for the Trump administration will be the release of the hostages immediately, with no further delay, President-elect Donald Trump‘s newly-appointed Middle East Advisor, Massad Boulos, told French paper Le Point in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.
Boulos added that while the release of the hostages should be separate from issues relating to the future of Gaza, a hostage deal should come within the framework of a temporary ceasefire.
“The president believes that the hostages must be released immediately and that there must be no further delay,” he told Le Point. “According to him, their fate should not be linked to other issues related to the day after in Gaza. Several countries are currently helping to achieve this goal, whether it is Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, or even Turkey.”
However, Boulos stressed that Turkey should not replace Qatar’s role as mediator but that it did have influence over Hamas’s decision-making, given it now houses the terror group’s key officials.
When asked whether the incoming administration might support Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s plan to annex the West Bank, Boulos said that Trump has yet to publicly address this issue, and the administration has not yet implemented a policy.
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, during his first term as US president, arrive to deliver joint remarks on the ‘Deal of the Century’ proposal, at the White House in 2020. (credit: JOSHUA ROBERTS/REUTERS)
However, Boulos did say that “starting January 20th, there will be a very clear and very specific policy on this subject, which must be respected.”
Boulos agreed that discussions around a “roadmap leading to a Palestinian state” would be a key part of discussions between the US and Israel. However, he said that so far, Saudi parties were not demanding the establishment of a Palestinian state.
He referenced Trump’s 2020 plan, which spoke of a proposed Palestinian state, the details of which “were rejected by both sides.”
Boulos continued that the president-elect’s priority is “to resume discussions on the Abraham Accords, with, of course, Saudi Arabia first. Because we know very well, and the president has said so, that once we reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia on Israel, there will be at least twelve Arab countries that will be immediately ready to follow suit.”
Plans for Iran
Speaking on Iran, Boulos said that Trump was adamant on preventing the regime from having a nuclear program. He stressed that Trump would put “maximum pressure” on Iran again and added that he felt Iran had changed tact since the former President was re-elected.
However, Boulos said that Trump was mainly focused on the nuclear deal and not the regime itself, which he was prepared to negotiate with.
“Nevertheless, there are three very important points for him: Iran must absolutely not have nuclear power; Iran’s ballistic missiles pose a risk not only to Israel, but also to the Gulf countries; and finally, the problem posed by Iranian proxies in the region, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen. Apart from these three axes, President Trump did not talk about regime change.”
Lebanese-American businessman Massad Boulos was recently appointed by Trump as his Middle East adviser. The Republican is father to the president’s sons-in-law, the husband of his daughter Tiffany Trump.
Speaking on his appointment, Boulos told Le Point that “it was a great honor” and a “great responsibility.”
“The vision is to achieve lasting peace in the Middle East. We have four years to work and we hope to achieve something that will be sustainable for the future and generations to come,” he added.
SYRIA REBELLION/
Syrian rebels advance further east to Hama a major city in Syria. Israel watches closely if Iran military will enter the fray
(Reuters/JerusalemPost)
Syrian rebels advance close to Hama city, raising pressure on Assad and his allies
Rebels and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said insurgents had captured villages, including Maar Shahur, a few miles north of the city.
By REUTERS
DECEMBER 3, 2024 19:09Updated: DECEMBER 3, 2024 22:41
Syrian opposition fighters stand in front of University of Aleppo, after rebels opposed to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad said they had reached the heart of Aleppo, Syria November 30, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Syrian rebels advancing against government forces pushed close on Tuesday to the major city of Hama, rebels and a war monitor said after their sudden capture of Aleppo last week rocked President Bashar Assad.
Rebels and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said insurgents had captured villages, including Maar Shahur, a few miles north of the city. Syrian state media said reinforcements were arriving in the area.
An attack on Hama would ramp up pressure on Assad, whose Russian and Iranian allies have scrambled to support him against a reviving rebellion. The city has remained in government hands since civil war erupted in 2011.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an Arabic-language interview that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus asked, and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged an end to “terrorist aggression” in Syria, RIA reported.
Iraq Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani said Baghdad would not be “a mere spectator” in Syria and blamed Israeli military strikes on the Syrian government for the rebel advance, his office said.
Rebel fighters walk near a military vehicle in Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province, Syria December 1, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MAHMOUD HASSANO)
Compounding Assad’s problems, fighters from a US-backed, Kurdish-led coalition battled government forces in the northeast, both sides said, opening a new front along a vital supply route.
Last week’s rebel seizure of Aleppo – Syria’s largest city before the war – marked the biggest offensive for years.
The front lines of the conflict have been frozen since 2020 after Assad clawed back most of the country from rebels, thanks to help from Russian air power and military help from Iran and its network of regional Shi’ite militia groups.
Now, however, Russia has been concentrating on the war in Ukraine, while Israeli strikes over the past three months have decimated the leadership of Hezbollah, the strongest Iran-backed force fighting in Syria.
On Monday, hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi militia fighters entered Syria to back up Syrian government forces, Iraqi and Syrian sources said, but Hezbollah does not plan to send forces now.
A rebel source said Iran-backed militia fighters were among the forces they were battling outside Hama.
In recent days, Russian and Syrian government warplanes have intensified airstrikes against rebels, both sides have said. Rescue workers have reported deadly strikes on hospitals in Aleppo and Idlib.
JOCKEYING FOR TERRITORY
Any sustained escalation in Syria risks further destabilizing a region already alight from wars in Gaza and Lebanon, where a truce between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group took effect last week.
The retreat by Assad’s forces over the past several days has led to jockeying for control among other groups that control pockets in the northwest, north, and east.
The Syrian Democratic Forces, an umbrella group that controls territory in Syria’s east with US support, said early on Tuesday that its Deir al-Zor Military Council had “become responsible for protecting” seven villages previously held by the Syrian army.
The Deir al-Zor Military Council comprises local Arab fighters under the SDF, an alliance mainly led by a Kurdish militia, the YPG.
Syrian state media reported that the army and allied forces were repelling an SDF assault on the villages, the only Syrian government presence along the east bank of the Euphrates River, an area otherwise mostly held by the SDF.
A Syrian military officer said the SDF push was aimed at exploiting government forces’ weakness after the rebel advance and said the army and allied Iran-backed militia groups were sending reinforcements.
Airstrikes also targeted Iran-backed militia groups supporting Syrian government forces in the strategically vital region, a security source in eastern Syria and a Syrian army source said.
The US military, which has a small number of troops based at a gas field in the area, carried out at least one strike in self-defense overnight, a US official said, adding it was not related to the ongoing rebel advances.
Crowded battlefield
The battlefield is crowded in northern Syria, with the US, Russia, Iran, and Turkey all involved in the renewed fighting, underscoring the messy global politics at play.
On Monday, Iran said there would be a foreign ministers meeting with Turkey and Russia in Doha next weekend as part of a diplomatic process that had earlier been used to stabilize borders.
The SDF was the main Western-backed ground force in eastern Syria fighting Islamic State, which ran a jihadist mini-state there from 2014-17. Turkey says the SDF’s main fighting force, the YPG, are Kurdish separatists it regards as terrorists and sent troops across the frontier in 2017 to push them back.
Rebel advances in recent days have dislodged the YPG from areas in and near Aleppo, including Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsoud district and a corridor around Tel Refaat to the north.
The SDF presence in northeast Syria along much of the border with Iraq also complicates supply lines for Iran-backed regional militia groups supporting Assad. On Monday, Reuters reported that hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi fighters had crossed the border into Syria to help government forces.
Israel has regularly struck Iran-backed forces in Syria. Hezbollah said an Israeli strike near Damascus on Tuesday killed one of its senior officers liaising with the Syrian military. Israel’s military said it does not comment on reports in foreign media.
Putin and Erdogan hold phone call
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the “sharply escalated” situation in Syria on the phone with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
Putin stressed the need to end aggression against the Syrian state, including leveraging Ankara’s capabilities, it said in a statement, and both leaders noted the importance of further close coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the matter.
“The two presidents will continue to be in contact with each other in the context of seeking steps to de-escalate the crisis,” the statement said.
end
SYRIA/REBELS /THIS MORNING
a must read….
Aleppo and Idlib under opposition control, with eyes on Hama
Aleppo and Idlib fall to opposition; regime and Iranian militias retreat amid intense battles and airstrikes.
By RIZIK ALABI/THE MEDIA LINEDECEMBER 4, 2024 04:39
Raising the opposition flag at the Aleppo Citadel in the center of the old city of Aleppo, Syria, Dec. 1, 2024.(photo credit: Moaid Ismaeil/The Media Line)
Syrian opposition factions have seized full control of the city of Aleppo and the entire Idlib province, key territories in northern Syria, following intense battles with regime forces and Iranian-backed militias. Both provinces are under aerial bombardments from Syrian regime warplanes and sporadic Russian airstrikes.
The Military Operations Directorate of the opposition announced it has also captured parts of Hama province and claimed that hundreds of regime combatants, including Iranian fighters, were killed or captured in recent operations. Aleppo International Airport, along with five other military airports, has also fallen under opposition control. These include Menagh, Taftanaz, Abu al-Duhur, Al-Nayrab, and Kuweires airports.
The Media Line has received exclusive photos and videos showing Iranian flags in bases in the southern Idlib countryside and Aleppo, alongside trenches and tunnels constructed by Iranian militias.
A military source from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a prominent opposition group, told The Media Line that Aleppo is now devoid of regime forces and Iranian militias. The source, who requested anonymity, confirmed that the opposition has secured several towns, including Saraqib, Kafr Nabl, Maarat al-Numan, and Khan Shaykhun, and all villages across Idlib province that were under regime control.
Meanwhile, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has launched an offensive against Kurdish forces in Aleppo’s countryside, capturing the strategic city of Tel Rifaat.
Opposition forces advancing in Syria, Dec. 1, 2024. (credit: Muhammad Eido/The Media Line)
Christians in Aleppo
The fate of Aleppo’s Christian community, which has significantly diminished since the start of the Syrian war in 2011, has drawn international concern. Approximately 20,000 Christians remain in the city, a fraction of the prewar population.
Contrary to Syrian regime media claims, local Christian leaders report that opposition factions, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, have allowed Christians to freely practice their faith. The Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of Aleppo confirmed that a Sunday mass was held to pray for peace in Syria and the world.
Syrian writer and politician Ayman Abdel Nour, speaking from Washington, stated that opposition factions have assured Aleppo’s Christians they can continue religious activities without fear. Abdel Nour said in an exclusive interview with The Media Line that he had contacted Christians in Aleppo and confirmed that preparations for Christmas celebrations were ongoing and that all churches remained open for prayers. He also noted that opposition factions were actively protecting churches to prevent provocations by regime remnants or airstrikes.
Despite these assurances, churches remain targets. On Sunday, a Russian airstrike hit the Franciscan Holy Land School in Aleppo, causing significant damage. Italy’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, calling for respect for places of worship. The Media Line obtained exclusive images of flames engulfing the school after the strike.
Return to Normalcy
Since the opposition assumed control, Aleppo residents have reported improvements in daily life. Bread and fuel are being transported from Idlib to Aleppo, with local organizations coordinating distribution. Syrian Civil Defense teams, also known as the White Helmets, have deployed to the city, while opposition forces protect banks, institutions, and other key facilities.
Residents interviewed by The Media Line confirmed that opposition forces have not harmed civilians, instead providing reassurances about their safety, provided they follow the guidelines of the new controlling authorities.
Despite these developments, the Syrian regime continues to target residential areas in Idlib and Aleppo with airstrikes, causing dozens of casualties.
Meanwhile, opposition factions advance toward Hama in central Syria. An opposition field commander stated that battles in Hama are intense compared to what transpired in Idlib and Aleppo, where opposition forces reached their targets without significant resistance, as regime forces withdrew ahead of their advance.
New power dynamics in Syria
Political analysts view these developments as reshaping Syria’s control map. Opposition-aligned Syrian political analysts believe the US supports these dynamics, viewing it as a way to counter Iranian-backed militias and solidify its Kurdish allies’ position in northern Syria.
By preventing Iraqi intervention to support Iranian militias, the US has effectively given the opposition the green light to advance, said Wael Al-Khalidi, a Syrian political analyst. He emphasized that Aleppo, once a stronghold for Iranian-backed forces, has now been wrested from their control.
As opposition forces press their advance into Hama, the future of Syria’s conflict remains uncertain, with both sides vying for control of key territories.
SYRIA/REBELS VS USA//
US Won’t ‘Cry’ About The Pressure Syria Is Facing From Al-Qaeda-Linked Fighters: Sullivan
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the US will not “cry” over the pressure the Syrian government and its allies are facing from an offensive on Aleppo led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda.
Sullivan acknowledged that HTS was “a terrorist organization designated by the United States” and said the US has “real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization.”
But he added, “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”
HTS captured Aleppo following a surprise offensive that was launched last Wednesday, which came after Israel stepped up airstrikes on Syria.
US officials have not been shy in the past about their preference for HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, over other factions in Syria. James Jeffrey, an American diplomat who served as a special envoy to Syria under the Trump administration from 2018-2020, said in a 2021 interview that HTS was “an asset” to the US’s strategy in Idlib, a northwestern Syrian province that’s been under HTS control since 2017.
“They are the least bad option of the various options on Idlib, and Idlib is one of the most important places in Syria, which is one of the most important places right now in the Middle East,” Jeffrey said.
Julani was formerly the leader of al-Nusra Front, which was the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In 2016, Julani publicly announced he was splitting with al-Qaeda and changed his group’s name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which merged with other Islamist groups to form HTS in 2017.
Julani’s rebranding campaign was part of an effort to gain more support from the West. Jeffrey said he was in regular contact with Julani and HTS while he was working as the US envoy to Syria. Jeffrey said a typical message from al-Julani was like this, “This is what we’re doing. These are our goals. We’re not a threat to you.”
Jeffrey said he responded to Julani by saying, “I couldn’t agree more. … Keep me informed as often as possible.”
Illustrative image of Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri.(photo credit: Iranian Armed Forces Office/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS, REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
The current situation in Syria has the purpose of weakening Syria and its allies in the Middle East‘s “Axis of Resistance,” Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, said on Tuesday, according to the Islamic Republic’s news agency, IRNA.
The “Axis of Resistance,” also referred to as the “Axis of Evil,” is comprised of nations including Iran and Syria, as well as terror organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, among others.
Bagheri reportedly claimed that Israel and the US had coordinated the rebels’ movement in the area.
The comments were made in phone calls with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Iraqi Major General Yahya Rasool, and Syrian Chief of Staff Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim, the report noted.
The Islamic Republic has reiterated such comments since rebel factions entered Aleppo last week and captured the city.
Members of Syrian opposition fighters walk along a street in Aleppo, after the Syrian army said that dozens of its soldiers had been killed in a major attack by rebels who swept into the city, in Syria November 30, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MAHMOUD HASSANO)
“The new movements of Takfiri-terrorist groups are part of the plot of the US and the illegitimate Zionist regime,” speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, wrote last week on X/Twitter.
“After defeating the Zionist regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support the Syrian government and people against the new conspiracy like in the past,” he added.
‘A broader scheme’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made similar claims, noting the advance into Aleppo was part of a “broader scheme by the Israeli regime and the United States to destabilize the West Asian region.”
Led by Islamist Jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebels’ takeover of Aleppo forced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to flee the city. On Tuesday, it was reported that the rebels had reached the vicinity of Hama.
Seth J. Frantzman and Reuters contributed to this report.
end
SYRIA/REBELS/SYRIAN ARMY/USA/NORTHEAST SYRIA
the USA is backing the rebels (SDF). Look what the USA is using against Assad. IRAQI sympathizers joining forces with Assad’s Syrian army.
(Times of Israel)
Watch: US A-10 ‘Warthog’ Filmed Engaged In Attacks Over Eastern Syria
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 08:30 PM
A US Air Force A-10C “Warthog” Thunderbolt II Close-Air Support Aircraft has been filmed flying low and doing strafing runs over eastern Syria as fighting has broken out there in the wake of the fall of Aleppo to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) jihadists.
It appears that US-backed “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF) are clashing with pro-Syrian forces, including possibly the Syrian Army and allied militias, some of which have been pouring across the border from Iraq.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has yet to confirm anything, but one independent geopolitical news source writes, “US Air Force (USAF) A-10 Warthog combat jets were purportedly deployed in Syria to conduct airstrikes against Iran-linked militias that entered Syria to fight the rebels that have launched a fresh offensive against Bashar al-Assad regime.” A Pentagon official has said that at least one airstrike took place “in self defense”.
And Fox News Pentagon correspondent Lucas Thomlinson has posted the below footage from Deir Ezzor…
The original source, an analyst who closely watches eastern Syria, wrote: “U.S. airstrikes target positions of Iran-backed militias in Deir Ezzor, eastern Syria.”
The Pentagon is perhaps reluctant to comment, also just ahead of the new Trump administration taking office in January, given the fact that it’s waging a war in Syria – including the deployment of warplanes – with no Congressional debate or approval whatsoever.
We detailed earlier that on Monday a Syrian army officer told Reuters that Iraqi militia forces crossing the border are “fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the frontlines in the north.”
More footage (unverified) reportedly from along the Euphrates River in the Deir Ezzor area:
Many of the fighters have been identified as belonging to the Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups. The US has long been in an internecine conflict with Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, with over the years periodic rocket fire even targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad, as well as various bases which host remaining American troops.
These forces have been fully aware that the Pentagon could attack their convoys at any moment, and so have reportedly been crossing the border in small groups and using concealed roads.
“At least 300 fighters, primarily from the Badr and Nujabaa groups, crossed late on Sunday using a dirt road to avoid the official border crossing, two Iraqi security sources said, adding that they were there to defend a Shi’ite shrine,” Reuters reports. Clearly the Pentagon is now getting more deeply involved in the current regional fighting, after having occupied oil and gas areas of northeast Syria for years.
END
SYRIA/IRAN/ISRAEL/
important.!
Iran Ready To Send More Troops To Syria, But This Could Trigger Deeper Israeli Entry
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 07:40 PM
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced Tuesday that Tehran is ready to consider sending more troops to Syria if the request is made by the Assad government in Damascus.
“If the Syrian government asks Iran to send troops to Syria, we will consider the request,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by the Qatar-based outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, which was later picked up by Reuters. Iran is preparing “a series of steps to calm the situation in Syria and find an opportunity to present an initiative for a permanent solution,” he said additionally.
Araghchi suggested more troops to defend Syria would be necessary for broader regional stability given that the takeover of Syrian territory by terrorist groups “may harm Syria’s neighboring countries such as Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey more than Iran.”
Tehran is willing to “consult and dialogue” with Turkey over regional differences, and its leaders will soon hold direct talks again with Russian President Vladimir Putin to coordinate a response.
Iran has of course long had troops in Syria assisting Assad forces, but any kind of bigger surge of Iranian and IRGC troops is sure to be noticed in a big way by Israel.
Israel has already been bombing Syria on a weekly basis, ostensibly as part of efforts to thwart pro-Iranian assets in the Levant region. If the Islamic Republic sends more of its troops this would likely trigger greater direct Israeli military intervention.
While rumors and speculation have abounded over the degree to which Israeli intelligence is actively helping in the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) takeover of the northwest, all of this could hasten much more direct levels of assistance by Israel to the anti-Assad insurgency.
While Israeli support to the Sunni extremists happened earlier in the war of the past decade (in the south of Syria), any support to HTS would prove deeply awkward given Washington has since formally designated the HTS group a terrorist organization.
Sunni terror groups have long sought to push out any Shia groups from all of Syria:
But such a legal designations has never stopped the NATO-Gulf-Israeli axis in prior years of fighting in Syria from aiding terror proxies. The strategic fault lines laid out in Seymour Hersh’s foundational text The Redirection are still clearly at play.
Here’s what the legendary journalist wrote all the way back in 2007, predicting the entirety of the Syrian proxy war:
To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.
One contradictory aspect of the new strategy is that, in Iraq, most of the insurgent violence directed at the American military has come from Sunni forces, and not from Shiites. But, from the Administration’s perspective, the most profound—and unintended—strategic consequence of the Iraq war is the empowerment of Iran.
…This time, the U.S. government consultant told me, Bandar and other Saudis have assured the White House that “they will keep a very close eye on the religious fundamentalists. Their message to us was ‘We’ve created this movement, and we can control it.’ It’s not that we don’t want the Salafis to throw bombs; it’s who they throw them at—Hezbollah, Moqtada al-Sadr, Iran, and at the Syrians, if they continue to work with Hezbollah and Iran.”
‘Salafis throwing bombs’ is precisely what played out in Aleppo days ago. The new war has has now reportedly entered the gates of the central city of Hama, where pro-Syria forces are once again battling the black-clad well-armed jihadists.
Dramatic video which emerged from Hama on Tuesday shows the HTS targeting Syrian national forces with a drone equipped with a large munition:
Currently, pro-Iranian militias are coming across the border from Iraq to assist national forces. These numbers are said to be limited, in the hundreds and counting, but if a large enough movement of Shia forces begins, this could trigger Israel and Turkey’s greater intervention. As for Turkey in particular, it is also without doubt using the HTS fanatics to ethnically cleanse northern Syria of Kurds.
RUSSIA;UKRAINE
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
insane!
Ukraine Vows To Reject Any Alternative To NATO Membership
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 11:00 PM
A new Ukrainian government statement has made clear the country will reject any alternative to NATO membership if it is proposed as part of a peace plan with Moscow.
Reports of President-elect Trump’s peace plan say it hinges on security guarantees while indefinitely postponing Ukraine joining NATO (for at least 20 years). This is precisely what the Zelensky government is now very vocally pushing back against.
A Tuesday statement from the Foreign Ministry asserts, “Having the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not settle for any alternatives, surrogates, or substitutes for Ukraine’s full membership in NATO.”
The statement continued by calling upon “the U.S. and Great Britain, which signed the Budapest Memorandum,… France and China, which joined it and all the states participating in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” to immediately back Ukraine’s efforts to joint NATO.
It further suggested that anything less is to fall in line with Russia’s ‘blackmail’. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 saw Ukraine give up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons arsenal, and in return Moscow provided security guarantees and recognized borders.
The hard-hitting Ukrainian government statement further stressed, “We are convinced that the only real security guarantee for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent factor for further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is only Ukraine’s full membership in NATO.”
Ukraine has representation at a Tuesday through Wednesday meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. Zelensky has been pushing allies hard to not back down on allowing full NATO membership. He’s even tried to argue that the alliance’s Article 5 self-defense pact doesn’t necessary have to apply to parts of Ukraine occupied by the Russians.
But NATO leaders appear cold to the idea, given the risk of nuclear-armed confrontation with Russia, and given Ukraine’s military is clearly losing the war in the east. NATO chief Rutte has also rejected Zelensky’s plea:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Tuesday sidestepped questions about Ukraine’s possible membership in the military alliance, saying that the priority now must be to strengthen the country’s hand in any future peace talks with Russia by sending it more weapons.
“The front is not moving eastwards. It is slowly moving westwards,” Rutte said. “So we have to make sure that Ukraine gets into a position of strength, and then it should be for the Ukrainian government to decide on the next steps, in terms of opening peace talks and how to conduct them.”
Kiev is also urgently pushing for more anti-air defense weapons systems from partners. This after Russia has stepped up attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.
“We are talking about an emergency delivery of at least 20 additional Hawk, NASAMS or IRIS-T systems,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrey Sibiga said Tuesday in Brussels, as quoted by RBK Ukraine. “This will help us avoid blackouts. We understand that the Russians are trying to undercut our generation capacity.”
A Republican-led oversight subcommittee has concluded that the COVID-19 virus likely originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, following a two-year investigation into the pandemic.
The House Oversight Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic released a 520-page report on Dec. 2, detailing the findings of the subcommittee’s investigation.
The report found that the U.S. National Institutes of Health funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), and that EcoHealth Alliance Inc. used U.S. taxpayer dollars to facilitate this research at the lab.
It also found that the Chinese communist regime, agencies within the U.S. government, and some members of the international scientific community sought to cover up facts concerning the origins of the pandemic.
The committee said that COVID-19 possesses biological characteristics not found in nature and that data indicates that all COVID-19 cases stemmed from a single introduction into humans, unlike previous pandemics, where there were more spillover events.
“By nearly all measures of science, if there was evidence of a natural origin it would have already surfaced,” the oversight subcommittee said in a statement.
The report said that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has a history of conducting “gain-of-function” research under low biosafety precautions.
Several researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology fell sick with a COVID-like virus months before the first case of the outbreak was allegedly detected at a wet market, according to the report.
The report said that in January 2021, the U.S. State Department published an unclassified fact sheet that stated: “The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illness.”
Citing the fact sheet, the report stated that the Wuhan Institute of Virology “has a published record of conducting ‘gain-of-function’ research to engineer chimeric viruses.”
The report said the June 2023 ODNI assessment supported this conclusion and went further, stating, “Scientists at the WIV have created chimeras, or combinations of SARS-like coronaviruses through genetic engineering, attempted to clone other unrelated viruses, and used reverse genetic cloning techniques on SARS-like coronaviruses.” The June 2023 ODNI Assessment said that some of the “WIV’s genetic engineering projects on coronaviruses involved techniques that could make it difficult to detect intentional changes.”
Among those interviewed during the panel’s investigation was Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), who stepped down from his role in December 2022.
The report stated that Fauci had “prompted” a research study titled “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”—which dismissed the idea that the virus was laboratory constructed—to “disprove” the lab leak theory.
Fauci testified at a June hearing that he did not suppress the lab leak theory and did not view it as inherently a conspiracy theory but said that “some distortions on that particular subject are,” according to the report.
“Although Dr. Fauci believed the lab-leak theory to be a conspiracy theory at the start of the pandemic, it now appears that his position is that he does have an open mind about the origin of the virus—so long as it does not implicate EcoHealth Alliance, and by extension himself and NIAID,” it stated, citing Fauci’s memoir published just weeks after the hearing. “Understandably, as he signed off on the EcoHealth Alliance grant.”
In a May 2021 Senate hearing, Fauci said his agency did not provide funds for “gain of function” research into coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
“The NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” Fauci told the hearing.
The report also stated that Taiwan notified the World Health Organization (WHO) on Dec. 31, 2019, about “atypical pneumonia cases” reported in Wuhan and asked the agency to investigate, but the WHO ignored the warnings.
The WHO response to the COVID-19 pandemic was “an abject failure because it caved to pressure from the Chinese Communist Party and placed China’s political interests ahead of its international duties,” the subcommittee said.
In a statement accompanying the report, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), chairman of the committee, said, “The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted a distrust in leadership. Trust is earned. Accountability, transparency, honesty, and integrity will regain this trust.”
A study published in the journal Risk Analysis on March 15 found a high probability that the COVID-19 virus had an unnatural origin. Although the study did not prove the origin of the COVID-19 virus, its authors said that “the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.”
The Epoch Times reached out to Anthony Fauci, NIAID, EcoHealth Alliance Inc., and the WHO for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.
no one under 19 years old healthy, was exposed to whatever this was, virus, toxin, poison or whatever, got it, then got severely ill or died, NOT one! All doctors, CDC, NIH, FDA, NIAID, HHS etc. knew
It was all a lie, a complete lie, all of COVID or whatever this was, was a lie, a fraud, the greatest hoax committed on Americans and the world and POTUS Trump fell for it, hook, line, and sinker. There was never EVER a pandemic.
You took Malone et al. mRNA transfection bioweapon vaccine for a lie, for NOTHING, they told you that you were POSITIVE for NOTHING, based on NOTHING, and your doctors knew this, for there really was NOTHING, most people died not from a virus, MOST died, 95%, from the devastating abuse and medical treatment by the medical system (isolation, abuse, DNR orders, denial of treatments, dehydration, malnourishment, sedatives such as ketamines, propofol, midazolam, fentanyl, lorazepam, diamorphine, liver and kidney TOXIC remdesivir, and intubation and ventilator (ventilator associated pneumonia).
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRICS
this will never work. Russia is using the new Brics currency because of sanctions and the other Brics boys are frightened that the USA will use the dollar as a weapon and thus the reason for the new currency
(zerohedge)
De-Dollarization Effort In Spotlight After Trump’s Tariff Threat On BRICS
President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap a 100 percent tariff on the economies of BRICS nations if they try to abandon the U.S. dollar as the chief international reserve currency, prompting speculation among economic observers.
“The idea that the BRICS countries are trying to move away from the dollar while we stand by and watch is over,” Trump wrote in a Nov. 30 Truth Social post.
BRICS—a nine-nation alliance of Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates—has been at the forefront of the de-dollarization initiative in recent years.
The global campaign to shift away from the greenback generated significant momentum following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Officials from these countries have been employing measures to reduce their reliance on the buck.
In addition to engaging in bilateral trade settled in local currencies, there has been years-long speculation that the bloc would establish a new reserve currency to rival the dollar.
If the BRICS nations followed through on using a basket of currencies—tossing the ruble, yuan, rupee, and real into a big bowl and creating one uniform currency—it would not affect the dollar, economist Peter St Onge said.
Internal BRICS trade accounts for a little more than 1 percent of global trade, and the group’s share of worldwide reserves is approximately 5 percent.
By comparison, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. dollar still represents approximately 60 percent of foreign exchange reserves. The next closest is the euro, accounting for fewer than one-fifth of global reserves.
Additionally, the Banker for International Settlements’ 2022 Triennial Central Bank Survey showed that the U.S. dollar accounted for 88 percent of global transactions, a figure that has stayed about the same for the past two decades.
“A basket of basket cases does not stand a snowball chance of replacing the dollar, at least outside trade between BRICS countries, say, between China and Russia,” Onge said in a video posted to X in October.
“With those numbers, a basket of BRICS will barely make a dent in the dollar.”
Still, Trump has been vocal about employing the tariff weapon to halt the formation of a rival to the U.S. dollar.
“We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty U.S. dollar or, they will face 100 percent tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. economy,” the president-elect recently wrote.
“They can go find another ’sucker!’”
While he does not believe BRICS will successfully replace the U.S. dollar in worldwide trade, Trump stated that any country that attempts to “should wave goodbye to America.”
This is not the first time Trump has weighed in on imposing tariffs on anti-dollar nations.
In October, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago with Bloomberg, Trump warned that the United States could slip into “Third World status” if it loses reserve dominance.
“We have to have that. We cannot lose it,” Trump said. “You’ll go to Third World status in this country because you take a look at the way things are running.”
He also pledged to implement a 100 percent levy on any country considering moving away from the dollar.
“If a country tells me, ‘Sir, we like you very much, but we’re going to no longer adhere to being in the reserve currency. We’re not going to salute the dollar anymore,’ I’ll say, ‘That’s OK, and you’re going to pay a 100 percent tariff on everything you sell into the United States, and we love your product. I hope you sell a lot of it into the United States, but you’re going to pay 100 percent tariff,’” Trump said.
“He will then follow it up by saying, ‘Sir, it would be an honor to stay with the reserve currency.’”
At a September campaign rally, Trump told the crowd that many countries are exiting the dollar.
“They’re not going to leave the dollar with me,” he said.
While there have been signals that the group would start a reserve currency, officials have appeared to veer away from this goal, said Michael Wan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Research.
“While BRICS has at times talked about creating a new unified BRICS currency, the latest summit in Kazan in October did not put an emphasis on creating a new currency,” Wan stated in a Dec. 2 note.
“It’s unclear how 100 percent tariffs on a group of countries that make up 37 percent of global GDP would happen in practice, but serves as a possible preview of tariff diplomacy under Trump 2.0.”
Other countries have expressed interest in becoming official BRICS members.
Views on the Anti-Dollar Crusade
Despite the BRICS expansion and the formation of BRICS-Plus—an extension of the formal partnership of other emerging economies—the U.S. dollar hegemony has remained intact.
Its dominance in the world economy has strengthened amid the Federal Reserve’s 2 1/2-year tighter monetary policy, robust growth prospects, and geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. Treasury market has also attracted immense foreign investment, with global holdings hitting a record high of nearly $8.7 trillion in September.
The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of the buck against a weighted basket of currencies, has surged 5 percent this year, even as the Federal Reserve started its new easing cycle in September.
Other currencies belonging to BRICS members have weakened considerably against the dollar.
The Indian rupee plunged to an all-time low against the dollar on Dec. 2 after new data revealed a sharp economic slowdown in the world’s fifth-largest economy.
India’s GDP growth rate eased to a lower-than-expected 5.4 percent in the third quarter, down from 6.7 percent in the second quarter.
The Russian ruble continues to sink, trading at less than a penny to the U.S. dollar. The ruble’s descent has been fueled by falling crude oil prices and the lasting effects of U.S.-led Western sanctions.
The Chinese yuan has slumped more than 2 percent against the buck this year. A Reuters poll of market watchers suggests China’s economy will grow by 4.8 percent in 2024, falling short of the government’s target.
Beijing’s economic growth rate could cool to 4.5 percent in 2025.
Still, BRICS members appear optimistic that their long-term de-dollarization strategy will work.
At last month’s annual BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan, the group continued to lay the anti-dollar groundwork.
Leaders and representatives reiterated their pledge to bolster economic ties and increase the representation of their national currencies in trade and financial transactions.
The organization’s newest development is the proposal for a BRICS-based grain exchange with the institution’s New Development Work, which could play a hefty role in the worldwide agricultural market.
“A number of BRICS countries are among the world’s largest producers of grain, vegetables, and oilseeds. We propose opening a BRICS grain exchange,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the yearly retreat.
“This would facilitate predictable price indicators for products and raw materials, taking into account their special role in ensuring food security.”
Brazil controls 60 percent of all soybean exports, Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and India maintains 40 percent of the international rice trade, including 65 percent of basmati rice shipments.
At the same time, there are mixed views about the BRICS nations dethroning the king dollar.
According to Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING, BRICS enjoys substantial influence in global exchange reserves and the fuel trade.
However, because gold is the main rival to the dollar, the precious metal is underrepresented in the members’ central banks.
Ultimately, Dolgin says, the U.S. dollar is not facing “immediate danger” in areas such as capital markets and international banking.
“The role of BRICS is still low, helping the dollar retain its strong footing,” he stated in a note.
Economists at Capital Economics said BRICS faces “significant practical challenges” in launching a currency.
“It wouldn’t in any case solve any of the challenges they would face in trying to move away from the dollar,” they wrote in a note. “Whether or not the BRICS make an explicit pledge, a BRICS currency is not a viable challenger to the dollar.”
A noticeable trend among the group is the rise of the Chinese yuan’s share for international payments. SWIFT data show that the Chinese yuan’s share has increased to around 3 percent, up from about 1 percent before the pandemic.
While knocking the dollar off the global currency mountain “is out of the question for the foreseeable future,” Bastian von Beschwitz, the Federal Reserve’s research chief of global financial markets, says the yuan’s growth is a trend to monitor in the coming years.
The Fed researcher cited growing usage, government support efforts, and consequences emanating from Western sanctions on Russia as potential reasons for the yuan’s expansion.
“Over the last 10 years, the international role of the renminbi has increased notably from a very low starting point. Despite this increase, its international usage still lags behind even those of the British pound and Japanese yen,” von Beschwitz stated in an August paper.
“Going forward, it will be interesting to see if the renminbi usage in trade continues to increase and whether that increased usage ultimately leads to a larger fraction of FX reserves being held in renminbi.”
The renminbi is the official name of China’s currency, while the yuan is the currency’s basic unit of measure.
Trump has been wielding the tariff weapon in the weeks before he returns to the White House. He recently threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico. The president-elect also said he would hit China with a 10 percent levy in addition to the current crop of tariffs. The aim, Trump says, is to push these countries to improve border security and halt the drug trade.
Russia shot back after Trump’s latest threats, warning the measure would backfire on the United States.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the dollar’s appeal is diminishing and that more countries are diversifying their foreign economic and trade activities.
“If the United States uses force, as they say, economic force, to compel countries to use the dollar it will further strengthen the trend of switching to national currencies,” Peskov said.
“The dollar is beginning to lose its appeal as a reserve currency for a number of countries.”
END
CUBA
Communism at its finest:
(zerohedge)
Total Grid Collapse Strikes Cuba (Again)
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 12:05 PM
Cuba’s national power grid collapsed shortly after 0200 local time on Wednesday, plunging 11 million people into darkness.
Total blackout. Well done, Communists—can’t even keep the power on.
The Energy and Mines Ministry said the 330-megawatt capacity CTE Antonio Guiteras power plant suffered a failure earlier this morning but did not provide details.
“At 2:08 this morning, the Electrical System, SEN, was disconnected when the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant went out due to the automatic tripping. The restoration process is underway,” the ministry wrote on X.
This is the second failure at the Antonio Guiteras power plant in months. In mid-October, the plant, located about 62 miles east of Havana, suffered a similar failure. Then, weeks later, a hurricane knocked out power across the country.
Bloomberg noted, “The cash-strapped, communist-run nation is mired in its worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union,” adding, “A full 10% of the population has fled the country since 2020, and the government is bracing for renewed political pressure from the US as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House.”
Let’s all be glad the Communists have not taken over the US.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0497 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 151.10 UP 1.489 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2673 DOWN .0001
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4059 DOWN 0.0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 14.16 PTS OR 0.42%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 3.86 OR 0.02%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .30%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.02%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.16 PTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.30%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 27.53 PTS OR 0.07%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2642.55
silver:$30.73
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.57 UP 20 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
S&P Global US Services PMI rose from 55.0 (Oct) to 56.1 (Nov final) – fastest expansion since March 2022 – but we note that it was down from the 57.0 flash print in early Nov.
ISM Services PMI tumblesfrom 56.0 (Oct) to 52.1 (Nov) – the biggest drop since June
These moves come along with a surge in ‘hard’ data in recent months…
Source: Bloomberg
ISM Services was the only survey to turn down this month…
Source: Bloomberg
The plunge in new orders was the big driver for ISM Services’ disappointment and Prices Paid refuses to drop…
Source: Bloomberg
So, while ISM’s survey plunges, the S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index rose to a 31-month high of 54.9 in November from 54.1 in October.
The latest reading signaled a marked monthly increase in output. The overall expansion continued to be driven by services, while manufacturing output decreased again.
“Improved service sector output offset a further decline in manufacturing during November, helping drive the overall pace of growth of business activity to the fastest for over two and a half years. The recent survey data are consistent with GDP growing at an annualized 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter, assuming a similarly robust expansion is seen in December.
“Companies have reported stronger demand for services thanks to the clearing of political uncertainty following the election, as well as brighter prospects for the economy in 2025 linked to the incoming administration and hopes for lower interest rates. The latter, alongside strong market gains in recent weeks, has helped drive an especially strong surge in demand for financial services, though November also saw robust growth for business and consumer services.”
But, employment was weak…
“It was surprising to see employment continue to fall, given the strength in demand for services reported during November, which hints at ongoing labor supply issues and the potential for stubborn wage growth.”
And prices keep rising…
“However, despite another month of above-average input cost inflation in the services sector, average prices charged for services rose only very slightly amid increased competition.”
Does any of that sound like a good foundation for cutting rates by 25bps next week?
So maybe The Fed will focus on ISM data not S&P Global’s?
In case you were wondering why every other sentiment survey has soared in November post-election on optimism about the new administration, but ISM’s did not, here are a few responses from the apparently purple hair brigade they decided to survey?
Anti-Trump talking points unleashed…
“We have concern after the presidential election that tariffs will affect prices for electronics and components in 2025.” [Information]
“Election results and the potential tariff changes would impact inventory and lead to higher prices in the hospital supply chain. What we saw during COVID-19 with startup U.S. production is a warning sign again.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
“Still waiting to see how presidential cabinet picks shake out, if they are confirmed and how they will affect our operations going forward. Holding capital projects now until the cabinet is complete and we know how federal funds will be dispersed going forward.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
So, politicized sentiment surveys too, eh?
END
ADP Employment Disappoints, US Manufacturing Sees Biggest Job Losses Since June 2023
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 08:24 AM
After surging 233k higher in October (biggest jump since July 2023), expectations were for a slowdown in job additions in November to +150k. The reality was a double whammy of pain with October’s surge revised down to just +184k and November’s print missing expectations at +146k…
Source: Bloomberg
“While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP.
“Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.”
That was the biggest manufacturing job loss since June 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
October’s revision was the largest to the downside since May 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Worse still, wage growth starting to rise again (after unions scored huge wage increases).
Job-changer wage growth rose to 7.20% YoY from 6.70%, highest since August.
Job-stayer wage growth 4.80%, highest since June; year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers edged up for the first time in 25 months
Source: Bloomberg
…of course, all that matters is Friday’s made-up data for The Fed’s decision next week.
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
The big USA problem: massive debt
(InternationalMan)
The Looming Debt Crisis: Is America Following The Path Of Collapsed Empires?
Whether it’s Rome, Spain, France, Britain, or the Soviet Union, excessive debt has played a critical role in their decline.
The typical pattern in these examples of collapsing empires is:
Stage #1: Empires achieve success and become overconfident.
Stage #2: Overconfidence leads to extravagant spending on luxuries and wars.
Stage #3: Empires finance this lavish spending by going into debt.
Stage #4: The debt grows to an unsustainable level and creates a crushing burden.
Stage #5: Empires finance the debt through taxation and currency debasement.
Stage #6: The populace bears the brunt of debt repayment as empires raise taxes and debase the currency—to the maximum extent—until it causes internal instability.
Stage #7: Empires cannot finance their militaries because of their debt burden. This is usually the tipping point.
Stage #8: Underfunded militaries plus internal instability make empires vulnerable to foreign invasion, domestic revolution, civil war, and other existential dangers.
Stage #9: The empire collapses.
Now, it’s the US Empire’s turn.
The US federal government has the biggest debt in the history of the world. And it’s continuing to grow at a rapid, unstoppable pace.
Annualized interest on the federal debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time this year and is shooting higher at an exponential rate.
The federal debt’s annualized interest cost is already higher than the defense budget.
It’s on track to exceed Social Security and become the BIGGEST item in the federal budget.
Historian Niall Ferguson summed it up nicely:
“Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long.
True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the US beginning this very year.”
Consider this:
1. The American populace is nearing its breaking point as taxation and inflation rise.
2. Interest on the federal debt exceeds defense spending and is set to become the BIGGEST expenditure, and it will keep growing from there.
As a result, the US Empire is somewhere between Stage #6 and #7 in the empire collapse pattern I described above. It is nearing the point where its crushing debt burden will make it difficult to finance existing military spending.
As we saw in the historical examples, a tipping point is reached once an empire’s debt burden becomes so great that it struggles to pay for its military. It’s like someone waving a big red flag.
The US government will soon have to choose to:
1. Cut defense spending amid the most chaotic geopolitical period since WW2.
2. Default on its promises regarding Social Security, Medicare, Veterans’ Benefits, and welfare generally.
Though it may try, the US government cannot continue to pay for entitlements and defense even if their current levels stay flat into the future. But they won’t stay flat. Both are set to grow significantly in the years ahead.
Tens of millions of Baby Boomers—about 22% of the population—will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.
With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, defense spending is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase.
Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said: “Barely staying even with inflation or worse is wholly inadequate. Significant additional resources for defense are necessary and urgent.”
The most likely outcome is that the US will try to have its cake and eat it too by paying for both growing defense and domestic obligations via currency debasement. However, it will likely end up just like other powerful collapsed empires that preceded it—with an underfunded military and domestic instability.
The truth is that Trump cannot make America great again any more than Gorbachev could save the Soviet Union. Once an empire struggles to pay for its military, the decline is impossible to reverse.
Consider this.
The Denarius—the Roman silver coin—lost nearly all its silver content between 180 and 280 AD.
The US dollar has lost over 98% of its value against gold since 1971.
Just as the Roman citizens realized their government was defaulting on its promises to them through currency debasement, I am confident that Social Security and Medicare recipients and others who have been promised something from the US federal government will notice they are being paid in debased currency. They won’t be happy.
Just as Roman soldiers realized they were being paid in debased currency, I am confident American soldiers will realize the same thing, and they won’t be happy either.
In short, the US will soon reach the tipping point that has caused the collapse of other powerful empires.
Its crushing debt burden is nearing the point where it will cause the military to be underfunded and internal instability as average citizens bear the brunt of debt repayment through increased taxation, inflation, and broken promises on Social Security and other programs.
Remember, the interest expense is set to exceed Social Security and become the BIGGEST item in the budget. It will only get bigger from there as the debt continues to grow at an unstoppable and exponential rate.
Therefore, I don’t think it will be long before the exploding interest expense crowds out funding for defense, Social Security, and other domestic commitments.
As that happens, I expect the US is headed for a disaster of historical proportions.
I am confident that the collapse of the US Empire, which has been in place since the end of WW2—otherwise known as the US-led world order—could happen a lot sooner than most realize.
The global geopolitical situation was already trending towards a multipolar world order.
The US debt crisis is compounding its geopolitical problems and will accelerate this established trend.
That means we’re likely to see the end of the US-led world order and the emergence of a multipolar world order in the not-so-distant future.
Russia, China, Iran, and other proponents of a multipolar world order are no doubt asking themselves: “Why start a war when your enemy’s debt burden is already leading them to defeat?”
Many people will be unprepared for the collapse of the US Empire.
However, when you look at the Big Picture, that is where I think we’re headed. And just like the collapse of previous empires, debt will play a significant role.
When private businesses go bankrupt, shareholders get wiped out.
When governments go bankrupt, those who hold its fiat currency get wiped out.
Given the historical examples, one thing I think we can be sure of is that the US government will try to service its debt costs with currency debasement, just like many empires that collapsed before it.
That’s terrible news for the US dollar.
I have little doubt the coming months and years will be the most chaotic of our lifetime.
Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—as previous empires collapsed because they failed to see the correct Big Picture and take appropriate action.
That’s why I’ve just released an urgent report, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years: Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. This exclusive PDF reveals exactly what’s happening and the crucial steps you must take to protect yourself. Click here to download it instantly.
END
Stoli Vodka Files For Bankruptcy Amid Legal Feud With Russia
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 01:45 PM
The maker of iconic Stolichnaya vodka filed for bankruptcy following a crippling cyber attack in September and an ongoing legal feud with Russia over who owns the brand.
As reported by the Post, the Stoli Group USA filed for Chapter 11 in US Bankruptcy Court in Dallas last week after a “malicious cyber-attack” forced the company to operate its global business manually “while the systems are rebuilt,” chief executive Chris Caldwell said in a statement.
Stoli Group said its “experiencing financial difficulties” according to the filing, which lists between $50 and $100 million in liabilities.
Caldwell also cited ongoing legal battles with Russia, which named the company and its owner – Russian-born and exiled billionaire Yuri Shefler – “extremists groups working against Russia’s interests,” earlier this year.
Shefler has been exiled since 2002 because of his opposition to President Vladimir Putin.
After the Ukraine invasion in March 2022 Shefler changed the name of the company to Stoli from Stolichnaya. That did not help, however, because at the time propaganda-addled westerners began dumping Russian vodka and spirits in protest, even when the vodka in question was owned by an opponent of Putin.
“Today, we have made the decision to rebrand entirely as the name no longer represents our organization,” Shefler said in a statement at the time. “More than anything, I wish for ‘Stoli’ to represent peace in Europe and solidarity with Ukraine.”
The brand has long been promoted as a Russian vodka even though it’s made in Latvia. Stoli Group is a subsidiary of Luxembourg-based SPI Group, which owns other spirts and wines, including Kentucky Owl bourbon. Only Stoli Group USA and Kentucky Owl are in bankruptcy, the company said.
Shefler has been at odds with Putin for decades, publicly denouncing a number of draconian anti-gay laws in 2013. Russia and Stoli Group have also clashed in courts.
The Russian government makes a state-owned version of the brand that is sold in the country with a label that clearly says it’s Russian made, according to reports. Ownership of the brand is disputed between Shefler’s Stoli Group, and Sojuzplodoimport, a firm owned by the Russian state.
The bankruptcy comes at a time when overall alcohol sales are slowing this year as Ozempic-injecting consumers pull back on consumption to save money and for health reasons.
Consumption of spirits in the U.S. was down 3% and beer down 3.5% for the first seven months of 2024, according to IWSR, a global drinks data and analytics firm.
END
Good luck to them trying to find a buyer
(zerohedge)
Wells Fargo Selling Its San Francisco Headquarters Building
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Downtown San Francisco – already ground zero of the commercial real estate implosion – is about to get one more empty skyscraper.
According to Bloomberg, San Fran-based Wells Fargo is looking to sell its headquarters building in San Francisco as it shifts to other (smaller and cheaper) offices less than a half-mile away.
The fourth-largest US lender, best known for its horse and pony logo and its countless financial scandals, which will remain based in the city, has enlisted Eastdil Secured, its former real estate investment bank to advise on a transaction. The building at 420 Montgomery St. could be put on the market as soon as this month, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier Tuesday. It’s likely that a buyer won’t emerge and the building could remain empty.
“Bringing more San Francisco employees together at our 333 Market St. location will create a more collaborative work environment through access to more modern workspaces, enhanced technology and amenities,” a Wells Fargo spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “Wells Fargo’s corporate headquarters remains in San Francisco, and we have no plans to move it out of the city.”
The move may open up yet more space in San Francisco’s troubled downtown commercial real estate market where similar office buildings have been selling for as much as 80% off. For the bank, founded in 1852 to serve gold rush pioneers, the formal move adds to years of adjusting its presence in the city. Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf, who took over in late 2019, lives in New York and mainly works from the company’s offices in Manhattan.
The San Francisco office market has slumped as people continue to work remotely after the pandemic, dragging on the value of office properties. The local vacancy rate was 37% in the third quarter, one of the highest among US cities, with asking rents down 4.9% over the past year, CBRE Group Inc. reported. Hardly surprising for a city best known for its shit-covered sidewalks, endemic crime and generally “socialist paradise” vibe.
The good news is that when a buyer does not emerge, then San Francisco will finally have a place to house at least a small portion of its tens of thousands of homeless crackheads roaming the streets like some undead, zombie army.
If for no other reason than that it will elicit fear in the hearts of autocracy-phobics, I propose that Donald Trump’s second-term Cabinet be known as “The Wild Bunch.”
The name is best known as the title of Sam Peckinpah’s classic 1969 western featuring a colorful cast of aging outlaws – William Holden, Ernest Borgnine, Edmond O’Brien, Warren Oates, and Ben Johnson – who give it their all as they battle bounty hunters, the Mexican Federal Army, and the passage of time in order to make their mark while they still have a chance.
Substitute the legacy media and special interests for the bounty hunters and Mexican army, and that about sums up the desperate last-chance mission of the ragtag band Trump has put together to carry out his mandate of meaningful change in a government grown fat and corrupt for the past half-century.
We don’t need to belabor the point. Trump’s appointees aren’t outlaws, but they certainly have the federales worried – the so-called administrative state, the people who have been wearing badges and making the rules. Because this Wild Bunch looks like they mean business. If they get approved, they will be kicking ass and taking names.
It’s a far cry from Trump’s first Cabinet, which he appointed with the permission of the administrative state. The outsider president didn’t know enough yet – or have enough power – to buck the system. He went with consensus choices who, at best, might talk about change but would be hesitant to effect it. Half of them shot Trump in the back; most of the rest were disloyal to his face, along with the congressional power brokers who put up roadblocks to every meaningful reform.
It’s not hard to think of Trump as Pike Bishop, the William Holden character in “The Wild Bunch” who leads what’s left of his gang out of a disastrous gunfight at the beginning of the movie and then plans his next move. At one point, Pike tells his trusted lieutenant, “This is our last go-around, Dutch. This time, we do it right.”
That’s where Trump is now, at age 78, sensing the insufficiency of his first term and wanting to make a real difference the second time around. This time, we do it right.
The president-elect has wasted no time in assembling his team of rabble-rousers. You can break the mayhem down into four discrete buckets – justice, health, national security, and economic overhaul – and it looks like, if he gets his way, Trump’s second term could be historic. Throw in the government reinvention project spearheaded by rogue entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy and you are well on your way to the second American revolution. No wonder the political establishment will stop at nothing to crush Trump and his appointees before they can begin the reforms they promised.
The old guard may have celebrated when they took down the proposed appointment of Rep. Matt Gaetz as attorney general, but they won nothing. Trump’s replacement nominee, former Florida attorney general Pam Bondi, will work just as hard as Gaetz to shake up the Department of Justice. As one of Trump’s attorneys in his first impeachment trial, she has intimate knowledge of how the Deep State can aim the full force of the federal bureaucracy on an individual to destroy him or her.
It’s no accident that the Trump transition team has declined FBI background checks on his nominees and appointees. Remember, this is the same FBI that entrapped Trump’s national security adviser Michael Flynn in the early days of his first administration. Not to mention the FBI that let President Trump be impeached for questioning Joe Biden’s role in Ukrainian corruption, even though the agency was in possession of Hunter Biden’s laptop that would have vindicated Trump if it had been released.
You can bet that Bondi, assisted by Trump’s criminal lawyer Todd Blanche in the role of deputy attorney general, will remove any Justice Department employees who pursue charges against anyone for political purposes. Those days are over.
But that’s just the beginning, and although the Justice Department overhaul may bring the most significant changes immediately, the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of Health and Human Services could result in long-term changes of even greater impact.
Anyone who has noticed the prevalence of advertising for wonder drugs on cable news probably can understand the concern that Big Pharma has an outsized impact on the health narrative being told in mainstream media. Multiply that concern by a dozen when you measure the influence that drug companies have not just on Congress and health regulatory agencies but on the medical industry itself.
Bobby Kennedy has no fear of Big Pharma or the scientific establishment and he is willing to demand accountability for the kinds of policy decisions that led to our disastrous COVID policies four years ago. Is he right about everything? No, but he asks the right questions – questions that until now no one in power has dared to raise.
What about national security? There are problems everywhere, none bigger than China, which has been the missing link in U.S. foreign policy for the past four years. Does President Biden even have a China policy? You would be hard-pressed to find it, unless it is appeasement. No response to the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. No response to the cold war with the Philippines or the creation of Chinese naval bases in the South China Sea. No response to the increasing pressure tactics employed against our crucial trading partner, Taiwan. No response to China cracking down on human rights and free speech in Hong Kong. No response to China’s creation of a spy base in Cuba in violation of the Monroe Doctrine. No response to China’s predatory trade practices using slave labor.
You can expect the silence from the State Department to end when Sen. Marco Rubio is approved by the Senate as the new secretary of state. China is on notice, but other hot spots around the globe will also be addressed by Trump’s national security team, which includes former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence and Rep. Michael Waltz as national security adviser. Trump promised to negotiate a settlement to the frightful war in Ukraine, and by appointing Gen. Keith Kellogg as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Trump is signaling that the killing has to end.
National security and the economy overlap in at least two crucial areas – illegal immigration and Trump’s plan to use tariffs as a tool to tame our allies and confound our adversaries. Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent has made it clear that he will work with Trump to use tariffs to reshape the global economy and lessen the national debt.
That will be a key ingredient as Trump’s national security team works to deport the millions of illegals who have developed a dangerous symbiosis with the labor economy. Trump knows we can’t merely overlook the lawbreakers without surrendering our moral superiority, but the trick will be to find economic resources to make whole the industries like agriculture that will need to reinvent themselves with a legal work force.
In the first Trump administration, the response to Trump’s plans for massive change was “Why?” But now the response is “Why not?” As Trump asked black voters in 2016, “What do you have to lose?” Now that question is being posed to the entire nation, which has been sleepwalking toward the abyss for too long. If we don’t solve illegal immigration, the national debt, and the corporate stranglehold on our regulatory agencies and Defense Department, then there won’t be anything left to lose. That’s why nearly 60% of Americans support Trump’s transition, despite the fear-mongering of Rachel Maddow, the New York Times, and Biden’s White House.
In one last parallel between the cinematic “Wild Bunch” and Trump’s political variation, it is worth noting that Trump and his team know exactly what they are getting into. The Deep State isn’t going to take kindly to the president turning off the spigot of easy money for lobbyists, Big Pharma, and the military-industrial complex. But don’t expect Trump to back down.
In a crucial scene in the film, as the outlaws plot their revenge, Ernest Borgnine warns William Holden that “They’ll be waitin’ for us.”
Holden responds: “I wouldn’t have it any other way.” Neither would Trump or any of the 77 million deplorables who joined his gang on Nov. 5.
Frank Miele, the retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His book “The Media Matrix: What If Everything You Know Is Fake” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA and on X/Gettr @HeartlandDiary.
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awful!
CEO Of UnitedHealthcare Killed In Alleged Targeted Attack In Manhattan, Suspect At Large
Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024 – 09:55 AM
Update (0955ET):
Additional details about the shooting are emerging.
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NYC media outlet PIX11 News has learned that the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, the parent company of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, was shot and killed in Midtown Manhattan, just outside the Hilton Hotel.
“Multiple sources confirm to @PIX11News that United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot and killed outside the Hilton hotel in midtown just before 7 am, where he was slated to speak at a investor meeting later today,” PIX11’s Dan Mannarino wrote on X.
Brian Thompson’s LinkedIn profile.
NYPost reports the fatal shooting of CEO Brian Thompson,50, was a “targeted attack.”
Here’s more:
The CEO of UnitedHealth was fatally shot in the chest Wednesday morning outside the Hilton hotel in Midtown in what police say was a targeted attack. Brian Thompson, 50, was at the hotel at around 6:46 am when a masked man fired at the CEO and fled eastbound on 6th Avenue, police sources told The Post. Thomas was rushed to the hospital in critical condition, where he was pronounced dead, police said.
Thompson became CEO of UnitedHealthcare in 2021 after joining UnitedHealth Group in 2004. UnitedHealth Group is largest health insurance company in the US by revenue, with over $189 billion in 2024.
*Developing…
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
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iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
Tucker Carlson Returns To Russia; Warns “We Are Closer To Nuclear War Than Ever”
Tucker Carlson has returned to Moscow to interview Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as the outgoing Biden administration pushes the US ever closer to a hot war with Russia.
“In the week since we left Russia, Moscow, where we are now in February, after interviewing Vladimir Putin, we’ve watched from the United States as the Biden administration has driven the US ever closer to a nuclear conflict with Russia, the country that possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal,” Carlson announced.
He continued, “It has accelerated ever since, and it’s reached its apogee so far in the weeks after Trump’s election. He’s now the President-elect. In that time, just a few weeks ago, the Biden Administration, American military personnel launched missiles into mainland Russia and killed at least a dozen Russian soldiers.”
“So we are, unbeknownst to most Americans, in a hot war with Russia, an undeclared war, a war you did not vote for and that most Americans don’t want, but that is ongoing,” Carlson urged.
“And because of that war because of the fact that the US military is killing Russians in Russia right now, we are closer to nuclear war than at any time in history, far closer than we were during the Cuban Missile crisis,” Carlson warned, adding “That would mean the elimination of Russia, the United States, and most of the rest of the world.”
“We felt there must be someone behind the scenes in Washington working to make sure that this conflict doesn’t become a nuclear Holocaust. But we found out that no, in fact, there is nobody,” he explained, noting that the State Department has cut off all communication with Russia.
Tucker also revealed that he has been trying to sit down with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy but has been prevented from doing so by the US government who have ordered Zelenskyy not to do the interview.
Biden’s government refuses to engage in diplomatic exchanges with Russia, despite serious escalation that risks cataclysmic war, and Tucker Carlson is having to try to fill the void.
Disgraceful.
Meanwhile, Democratic strategist James Carville claimed Tuesday on MSNBC’s “The Beat” that Carlson has had the most influence with regards to Trump’s cabinet nominations.
Carville claimed “One person is driving this, I promise you. And it’s Tucker Carlson. Tucker’s an old friend of mine.”
Carville added that Tucker “has more influence in this current administration, way more than Vernon Jordan had in the Clinton administration or any of the kind of wise men that were around,” adding that “Tucker is very, very, very powerful.”
* * *
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KING REPORT
The King Report December 4, 2024 Issue 7383
Independent View of the News
On Tuesday, the DJTA declined sharply; Fangs rallied moderately; the DJIA declined modestly; and USZs declined moderately. The dollar declined smartly; commodities soared, led by gasoline and oil.
DTTA stocks on Tuesday: FedEx -4.66%, UPS -3.22%, Old Dominion -2.78%, R -2.21% Avis -2.87% but -6.0% at low.
Avis Margin Pressure Could Hit U-Turn on 2025 on Improved Fleet – BI 10:03 ET Avis faces cost pressures from fleet issues… Auto-industry supply-demand tailwinds have disappeared, revealing supply-chain breakdowns and delayed vehicle deliveries…
Meta, +2.43% to an all-time higher near 13:30 ET, led Fangs higher. BBG: Shares are up more than 6% since CEO Mark Zuckerberg dined with… Trump on Nov. 27… That’s how absurd things are now!
Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg seeks ‘active role’ in Donald Trump’s tech policies – The FT 8:01 ET Policy chief Nick Clegg says social media company ‘overdid it’ on content moderation, as it seeks to placate president-elect https://www.ft.com/content/69f86be5-ecdd-4222-92aa-3df0a8db213c
Meta’s Marl Zuckerberg Files to Sell 35,921 Shares – BBG 17:40 ET
October JOLTS Job Openings rose by 372,000 to 7.74 million; 7.519 million was consensus. The Quits Rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9% in September. This is a sign of confidence in finding employment.
Leverage And Speculation Are at Extremes In November, US stock options volume hit nearly 70 million contracts on average per day; that is the second highest on record, and trading activity has DOUBLED over the last two years… Short-dated call options, also known as “zero-day” options, which expire in less than 24 hours, are attractive for speculators hoping to capitalize on short-term stock price movements… This speculative activity feeds into a cycle where dealer hedging magnifies stock volatility, detaching prices from fundamental values… The newest speculation and leverage tool of choice is leveraged single-stock ETFs…https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/
@dgsommersmkts: If the strong US stock market is directly correlated with the largest non-recession, peacetime deficit spending in US history, what happens to that market if the incoming Administration actually succeeds in its promise of cutting government spending (and deficits?) Source: CBO https://x.com/dgsommersmkts/status/1863915654346064142
ESZs traded sideways, and mostly moderately higher, from the Nikkei opening until the broke down after 9 ET. ESZs hit a daily low of 6047.50 at 10:51 ET. The ingrained manipulation for the European close forced ESZs to 6059.00 at the 11:30 ET European close. ESZs then sank to 6047.75 at 11:44 ET.
A Noon Balloon conflated with the afternoon rally and took ESZs to 6065.75 at 14:56 ET. ESZs did a slow rollover that reduced ESZs to 6059.50 at 15:43 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESZs to 6066.00 at 15:56 ET. ESZs then eased down to 6061.50 at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied sharply on Meta, which is jumping because Zuckerberg had dinner with DJT. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq hit new intraday and closing highs.
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline rallied sharply again; precious metals rallied moderately. The DJIA and DJTA declined; the session was lackluster – just like on Monday. The S&P 500 Index had a range of only 19 handles after an 18-handle range on Monday. USZs declined moderately and were -24/32 at the NYSE close.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the lackluster action a sign and focus on Fangs that a short-term top is developing?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6045.11 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6052.07; 6033.39
DJT Border Czar @TomHoman_: A panel of three judges on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously ruled that the federal government has the authority to deport illegal aliens over the objections of any and all local authorities. Judge Daniel Bress made the ruling with judges Michael Hawkins and Richard Clinton concurring. This is a huge win for President Trump’s mass deportation operations!
South Korean President Declares Martial Law, Citing Threats Of ‘Anti-State Activities’ “I am declaring a state of emergency in order to protect the constitutional order based on freedom and eradicate shameful pro-North Korea anti-state groups, that are stealing freedom and happiness of our people,” Yoon said on the country’s YTN news channel. He added that this would protect the country “from the threats of North Korea’s communist forces.”… https://www.oann.com/newsroom/south-korean-president-declares-martial-law-citing-threats-of-anti-state-activities/
@AP: The South Korean parliament voted to defy the country’s president and immediately lift his martial law declaration. President Yook Suk Yeol had vowed to eliminate “anti-state” forces when making the declaration… Yoon has also dismissed calls for independent investigations into scandals involving his wife and top officials, drawing quick, strong rebukes from his political rivals. Yoon’s move was the first declaration of martial law since the country’s democratization in 1987. The country’s last previous martial law was in October 1979, following the assassination of former military dictator Park Chung-hee. https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-yoon-martial-law-997c22ac93f6a9bece68454597e577c1?taid=674f3c0b3b87090001c80e36
@TheCalvinCooli1: The South Korean military is saying that martial law will remain in place until the president says officially lifts it. This comes after The South Korea’s parliament has voted 190-0 to lift the country martial law.
@Osint613: Democratic Party chairman Lee Jae-myung: “We will not leave the Assembly Hall until the president officially ends martial law.”Lee continued: “The martial law was invalid from the start, and the National Assembly has confirmed it. I urge the police and military to remember that obeying the president’s illegal orders is a crime. Stay in your positions and uphold your duties.”
NYT: President Yoon’s party suffered a crushing defeat in midterm elections in April. The opposition added to its majority, and recent polls show that 70 percent of South Koreans disapprove of the job he has done… https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/03/world/south-korea-martial-law
President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday afternoon (US time): “I am canceling the martial law.”
@balajis: How likely are you to be married by 30? Boomers: ~90%; Zoomers: ~30%. This is civilizational.https://t.co/NkJiEc5nYR
Biden announced $1 billion to help African nations rebuild homes hit by natural disasters; but North Carolinas are still suffering the effects from Hurricane Helene that hit in October.
Salesforce reported Q3 EPS of 2.41 (2.44 exp.); Revenue $9.44B, $9.35B exp.; and forecast Q4 EPS at 2.57 to 2.62; 2.65 consensus. The stock soared as much as 10% in after-hour trading because CEO March Benioff will hire 1000 employees to facilitate its AI push. Cite ‘AI’ and watch the lemmings get jiggy!
Today – The lackluster action on Monday and Tuesday plus the severe decline in the DJTA and focused trader buying of Fangs strongly suggest that stocks are exhausted and need to retrench.
ESZs and stocks are likely to rally into PE Powell’s 13:40 ET appearance on the hope that Jerome will be dovish. If he is dovish, the rally could be transitory because a December rate cut is already expected.
Expected economic data: Nov ADP Employment Change 150k; Nov S&P Global US Services PMI 57, Composite PMI 55.3; Nov ISM Services Index 55.7, Prices Paid 57, Employment 53, New Orders 56.6; Oct Factory Orders 0.2% m/m; Oct Durable Goods 0.2% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.1%, Nondef Ex-Air -0.2%; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; St. Louis Fed Pres Musalem 8:45 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9 ET, Fed Chair Powell 13:40 ET
ESZs are +4.00; NQZs are +45.75 (on Salesforce); and USZs are -7/32 at 21:30 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5852; 100-day MA: 5686; 150-day MA: 5578; 200-day MA: 5465 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,043; 100-day MA: 41,844; 150-day MA: 40,932; 200-day MA: 40,390 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6049.88 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5220.07 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5650.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5946.38 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6031.20 triggers a sell signal
@ABC: Pres. Biden’s decision to pardon his son, Hunter, is throwing a bomb in his party’s post-election soul-searching. “You can’t get any more elite than this,” one Democrat said… “This literally reinforces the very challenge that Democrats confronted in the election, which is elites talking to elites convincing each other that they’re right. Well, you can’t get any more elite than this,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va… https://t.co/aT5otwqyKi
Top Justice Department official slams Hunter Biden’s bid to dismiss his indictment after pardonhttps://t.co/xuzO6Lo0gR
DOJ special counsel says Hunter Biden’s indictment should not be dismissedhttps://t.co/EtZpa7ekbw
A California businessman says the president’s son tried to pay rent with his own artwork and still owes him more than $300,000. “Is that pardoned now?”https://trib.al/Ptxfxwg
@TheFirstonTV: BIDEN (in Africa): “I’m probably the most pro-rail guy in America… I’ve ridden over 1,300,000 miles on a daily basis to my work.” That’s 52 times around the earth each day. https://x.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1864042670969979049
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: I’m putting DOJ & FBI on notice: Don’t shred a single document. Don’t delete a single file. Accountability is coming. The Judiciary Committee WILL investigate – and find out who authorized spying on Christians, attacks on prolifers, the vendettas against Trump – all of it.
Trump’s nominee to head the DEA, Hillsborough County, FL Sheriff Chad Chronister, withdraws after backlash over his arrest of a pastor for breaking COVID lockdown rules.
Trump prosecutor Fani Willis (Atlanta DA) must turn over all communications with special counsel Jack Smith: judgehttps://trib.al/8LVqpt1
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SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
This ought to be lots of fun!
(zerohedge)
Fani Full Release Ordered After Fulton DA Sat On RICO Records
Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024 – 04:40 PM
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has been ordered by a local judge to release all communications between her office, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s office, and the January 6th Committee regarding her RICO case against President Donald Trump and his allies, after she was found to have violated federal law by withholding them.
“The Court also hereby ORDERS Defendant to conduct a diligent search of her records for responsive materials within five business days of the entry of this Order. Within that same five day period, Defendant is ORDERED to provide Plaintiff with copies of all responsive records that are not legally exempted or excepted from disclosure,” reads a Tuesday order.
If Willis can’t find them, she is mandated to follow court-ordered procedures to “provide an explanation why such correspondence does not exist.”
BREAKING: A judge in Georgia just ordered Fani Willis to release all communications she had with Jack Smith and the January 6th Committee to plot the RICO case against President Trump. The court also declared that she violated Georgia’s Open Records Law. “The Court also hereby ORDERS Defendant to conduct a diligent search of her records for responsive materials within five business days of the entry of this Order. Within that same fiveday period, Defendant is ORDERED to provide Plaintiff with copies of all responsive records that are not legally exempted or excepted from disclosure.” Big shoutout to
@TomFitton for another slamdunk victory. This could bring major legal troubles for Fani if, indeed, she coordinated with the federal government to go after President Trump. I have to say, the courts just haven’t been kind to Fani. She loses every time she opens her mouth to argue a case. She probably regrets going after Trump and just wishes she was on a cruise or cabin massaging Nathan Wade’s bald head.
Willis, who had been served on March 11, 2024 in the suite involving conservative watchdog Judicial Watch, failed to respond by an April 10 deadline. After later claiming she ‘misunderstood’ the court’s directive, she then said that the document release would jeopardize her RICO case.
In mid-2023, Willis told a local radio station that she was not coordinating in any way with Smith’s office in investigations and cases brought against former President Donald Trump. Smith had charged Trump, now the president-elect, with both classified documents-related and 2020 election-related charges in two different jurisdictions, while Willis brought charges against him and more than a dozen others for alleged election-related crimes in Fulton County.
“I don’t know what Jack Smith is doing and Jack Smith doesn’t know what I’m doing,” Willis said in July of that year. “In all honesty, if Jack Smith was standing next to me, I’m not sure I would know who he was. My guess is he probably can’t pronounce my name correctly.”
Since then, however, she has made no comments about Smith’s investigation. Smith, meanwhile, has never commented on Willis’s case against Trump.
Smith in November filed court papers confirming he would be dropping his election case against Trump and would stop the appeals process in his classified documents case. During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump said he would terminate Smith as special counsel upon taking office.
A letter sent by Willis’s office on Dec. 17, 2021, to the House Jan. 6 committee had “requested access to any Select Committee records relevant to her investigation into President Trump’s actions to challenge the 2020 presidential election, including ‘recordings and transcripts of witness interviews and depositions, electronic and print records of communications, and records of travel,’” House Judiciary Republicans said in a report released last year relating to an investigation they launched into Willis.
Willis has been critical of House Republicans’ investigation into her office and the Trump case, accusing House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) of trying to interfere in the case at one point.
“Jim Jordan has, time after time after time, attacked my office with no legitimate purpose,” she told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow in May. “Anyone who knows Jim Jordan’s history knows that he only has the purpose of trying to interfere in a criminal investigation.”
In a letter issued to Republicans in 2023, Willis said Republicans are trying to “obstruct a Georgia criminal proceeding and to advance outrageous partisan misrepresentations.”
Her case against Trump has stalled in recent months after one of the president-elect’s co-defendants submitted a court filing earlier this year claiming Willis and then-special prosecutor Nathan Wade were engaged in a romantic relationship. The pair confirmed they were in a relationship but denied any wrongdoing.
A judge overseeing the case issued an order in March allowing Willis to remain on the case if Wade resigned, which he did hours later. Trump and several of his co-defendants appealed the decision to the Georgia Court of Appeals earlier this year, where the case is still pending.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING LARRY KLAYMAN
Shit Hits Fan When Trump Takes Office – Larry Klayman
Renowned Attorney Larry Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and later Freedom Watch, is back with an update on the crime and violence cooking with the commie Dems, RINO’s and Deep State. First, the crime coverup is the pardon of Hunter Biden that spans 10 years of alleged crime. First Lady Jill Biden is elated about the pardon for son Hunter. Klayman says, “The fact that Jill Biden is so happy about this is because she is one of the actors and conspirators in the bribery, which took place with regard to communist China, Ukraine and Russia. She benefitted by it. Who was the money launderer? Her son, Hunter Biden. She could have been indicted along with Hunter as well as brother James of the Biden crime family for the bribery and money laundering. . . . I think his brother James will get a pardon because he’s dead to rights with what has been uncovered. I think more pardons are coming. Joe Biden does not care at this point. The guy has no legitimate reputation.”
Klayman predicted just about three weeks ago, “The communists, the atheists, the radicals and the Left . . . are going to get violent, and we better be prepared for that.”
What happened recently is there have been multiple death threats against Donald Trump’s cabinet picks. Klayman says, “The same is true with Kash Patel. The fact they want to take his head off means he is perceived to be a threat. It’s the same thing in regard to Pete Hegseth. It’s the same thing in regard to Tulsi Gabbard. They don’t like these people because they cannot be controlled. They don’t like Musk and, God forbid, I hope it does not happen, but I think the Left is going to try to kill Musk along with Trump again. I have had death threats myself recently, and this is where we are. You got to do what you got to do. The Founding Fathers did not worry about it. They did it under the Grace of God. Divine Providence is what they talk about in the Declaration of Independence.”
This is just the opening act from the Left. Klayman says “They are the disciples of Karl Marx, which are disciples of the devil. . . . As I predicted in our last podcast, the violence is just beginning once Trump takes office and starts implementing what he says he is going to do with regard to the border, the criminal justice system, with regard to the Middle East and many other things. . . .Trump just threatened Iran if the hostages are not released. You are going to get all these radical terrorist sympathizers that will come out of the woodwork on that. Already, Iran has sent hit squads to try to kill Trump. This has not come to fruition yet . . .but once he becomes President, all hell is going to break loose. You can bet that is going to happen. . . . Trump is up against a number of individuals in the House and in the Senate that will do whatever they can to block Trump. So, whenever he actually takes executive action and pushes things through, excuse the French, the shit is going to hit the fan. You are going to see them in the streets, as we saw in the last few weeks, with the reported attempts to kill the Trump nominees. It’s there.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter, Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org as he updates us on the Hunter Biden pardon, the panicked criminals on the Left and RINO’s that are planning to thwart Trump and America.
harveyorganblog.com 
