GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $6.50 TO $2631.65
SILVER PRICE UP $0.0 TO $31.05
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2650.70
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.30
Bitcoin morning price:$97750 DOWN 560 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $101,650 UP 3340 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $5.60 TO $928.75
Palladium price; DOWN $2.10 TO $963.30
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3732.85 UP 34.60 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2066.36 UP 2.47 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,491.68 UP 7.50 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)
DONATE
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END
EXCHANGE;
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,626.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/05/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/09/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 1
099 H DB AG 4
132 C SG AMERICAS 5
190 H BMO CAPITAL 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 5
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 64
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 109 3
661 H JP MORGAN 6
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 16 20
690 C ABN AMRO 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 5
880 C CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 133 133
JPMorgan stopped 9/133
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 133 NOTICES FOR 13,300 OZ 0.4136 TONNES
total notices so far: 16,634 contracts for 1,663,400 Oz (51.738 tonnes)
FOR DEC
SILVER NOTICES: 180 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.900 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6915 for 34.575 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $6.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.00 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.047 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 2507 CONTRACTS TO 139,356 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 5947 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.23 IN PRICE. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS TO WHICH THEY SUCCEEDED WITH YESTERDAY’S SILVER’S LOSS OF 23 CENTS.
WE HAD AN EXTRA HUMONGOUS 3410 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 638 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN TODAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 5917 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THURSDAY’S COMEX SESSION
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX AND THAT THAT CONTINUED ON MONDAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 638 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.23) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD AN EXTRA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5977 OI. CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A HUGE 3410 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (NOV 29). THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE HERE THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER BE DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! MERCIFULLY,THERE WAS NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT (WHAT A RELIEF). HOWEVER WE DID HAVE A HUGE 173 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 865,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.
// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 36.920 MILLION OZ + .66 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 37.580 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN ( LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION +//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 638 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 60 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 DAYS, total 10,009 contracts: OR 50.045 MILLION OZ (2002 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 50.045 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 50.045 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2507 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.23 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 3410 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 40.435 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.865 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD .66 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL; 37.580 MILLION OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 37.580 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5917 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 638 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//LITTLE IF ANY FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (638) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, PROBABLY TODAY.
WE HAD 180 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.900 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 627 OI CONTRACTS TO 469,491 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (627 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $21.80 IN PRICE THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 55.169 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S 206 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 20600 OZ (0.6407 TONNES OF GOLD). THIS TOTALS 54.957 TONNES AND FROM THAT WE MUST ADD LAST SATURDAY’S ISSUANCE OF .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK AND THEN THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.919 TONNES//NEW STANDING 57.6456 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DEC: 57.6456 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $21.80 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 8840 OI CONTRACTS (27.49 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 206 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (20,600 OZ) ALONG WITH THE .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK “DELIVERY” ISSUED EARLY LAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 1.919 TONNES (EX. FOR RISK)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8273 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 472,097
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8840 CONTRACTS WITH 627 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8273 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8840 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1538 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8273 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 627 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8840 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.169 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 20,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK PRIOR (LAST SATURDAY) AND THEN THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 1.919 TONNES EX. FOR RISK//NEW STANDING RISES TO 57.6456 TONNES
//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 57.6456 TONNES
/ 3) LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE THURSDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS AS WE HAD A $21.80 PRICE LOSS. BUT WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1538 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///206 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 20,600 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 39,225 CONTRACTS OF 3,922,500 OZ OR 122.00 TONNES IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7845 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 122.00 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 122.00 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.43% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 122.00 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an ex for physical issuance/maybe this time we will surpass March 22 record of 409 tonnes for the month)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2507 CONTRACTS OI TO 139,356 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 3410 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 3410 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3410 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2507 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3410 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5917 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 29.59 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.23 LOSS IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/FRIDAY MORNING THURSDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 35.22 PTS OR 1.05%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 305.41 PTS OR 1.26%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 304.43 OR 0.77%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .63%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2632 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2672// Oil DOWN TO 67.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 71.30 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 627 CONTRACTS TO 469,491 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $21.80 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS DESPITE WE HAVING A STRONG PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD WE ALSO HAD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW A HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (8273). THUS A HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8840 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE AND THEREFORE NO LOSS IN NET LONGS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD VERY LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 202, AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING BUT VERY LITTLE YESTERDAY.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8273 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 8273 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8273 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8840 CONTRACTS IN THAT 8213 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 627 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $21.80 THURSDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A NORMAL SIZED SIZED 1538 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON LAST FRIDAY.THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (57.6456 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 54.957 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR + 1.919 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK YESTERDAY /NEW TOTAL 57.6456 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $21.80/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN PRICE WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A NORMAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING. LATE LAST FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES) THUS BOTH OF THESE WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING DELIVERED UPON. (2.6966 TONNES). MERCIFULLY FOR ME, THE CME ANNOUNCED ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS FOR DELIVERY FRIDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 27.49 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 20,600 OZ OR 0.6407 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR ISSUED LATE LAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN OUR NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.919 TONNES ISSUED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING)
THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR = 2.6966 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO TODAY’S DELIVERY TOTALS.
/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 57.6456 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 57.6456 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $21.80
WE HAD 2606 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8840 CONTRACTS OR 884,000 (27.94 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 168,526 contracts: poor //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT.
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
DEC 6
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 11,817.050 OZ BRINKS ENHANCED 29 LONDON GOOD DELIVERY BARS |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 133 notice(s) 13300 OZ 0.4136 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1034 contracts 103400 OZ 3.216 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 16,634 notices 1,663,400 oz 51.738 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 1 customer deposit
I) Into Brinks Enhanced section: 11,817.050 oz
(29 London good delivery bars)
total deposits 11,817.050 oz
withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: nil oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1167 contracts having GAINED 106 contracts. We had
100 contracts were served on THURSDAY, so we GAINED 206 contracts or 20,600 oz underwent a queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.
JANUARY GAINED 109 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2214
FEBRUARY LOST 926 CONTRACTS TO 361,576 .
We had 133 contracts filed for today representing 13,300 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 109 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 133 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,634 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1167 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (133 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,766,800 OZ OR 54.964 TONNES. to which we add 2.6966 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total: 57.6456 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,634 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1167 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (133 x 100 oz which equals 1,766,800 oz (54.6456 TONNES) + .2.966 tonnes of ex. for risk PRIOR + //new total 57.7456 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 57.6456 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,892,531.843 oz 58.86 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,845,154.890 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,975,826.278/// 248.08 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,865,328.662 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,083,295 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 189.216 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/17.833 million oz = 20.14% of entire inventory..
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 6. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE DEC 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | nil OZ . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 116,115.410 oz Brinks |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 180 CONTRACT(S) (0.900 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 469 contracts (2.345 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6915 Contracts (34.575 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits
i) Into Brinks 116,115.410 oz
total customer deposits 116,115.410 oz
We had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawal nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/306.673million or 43.84%
adjustment 2
i) Out of Asahi 614,646.700 oz dealer to customer
ii) Out of Manfra: 268,932.100 oz dealer to customer
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 75.639MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.673 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 649 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 107 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
280 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON THURSDAY SO WE FINALLY HAD A STRONG 865,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE. THIS ENDS THE 3 DAY IN A ROW EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON.
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 15 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2487
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 6 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 70
MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 2527 CONTRACTS UP TO 116,957
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 180 for 0.900 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 54,850 fair// t.a.s. enhanced to a MUCH lesser extent,
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6915x 5,000 oz = 34.575 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (649) and the number of notices served upon today (280)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month: 6915 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(649) minus number of notices served upon today (180)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 36.920 MILLION OZ. + to which we add .66 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR//new total 37.580
New total standing: 37.580 million oz.
There are 75.639 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 871.94 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ
DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 475.047 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
Alasdair Macleod….
Gold little changed on the week, silver nudges higher
There is an underlying firmness in precious metals prices as we approach the year-end. The downside now appears limited with next year looking bullish.
| Alasdair MacleodDec 6∙Paid |
Gold consolidated in a narrow trading range this week, while silver gained some ground. In early morning European trade, gold was $2642, $3 up on balance from last Friday’s close, and silver was $31.30, up 81 cents on the same timescale. Comex futures trading was light, as the following screenshots show for gold and silver respectively:
These declining volumes indicate is that selling pressure is light, which coupled with the substantial decline in gold’s Open Interest confirms that gold is in oversold territory:
Silver’s OI is also relatively low, but the dramatic collapse on OI has been in gold, indicating weak holders have been shaken out. Silver’s rise in quiet conditions indicate a gentle bear squeeze, and in gold bullish speculators being currently absent will return to buy.
Undoubtedly, gold and silver have been hit by the unexpected surge in the dollar, following Donald Trump’s election as the next US president. But the momentum behind that surge appears to have evaporated for now. As an indication, the dollar’s trade-weighted index is up next:
With a golden cross under it, the chart looks bullish for the dollar, but it probably needs to consolidate, back testing the 104 level. Its future from there is unclear, given that it has failed to break out of a two-year long consolidation.
Evidence of underlying support for gold was seen in the stands-for-delivery on Comex, which totalled 16,501 contracts (51.32 tonnes) in the five trading sessions since Thanksgiving. This compares with the excitement behind the discovery that China recently took 60 tonnes out of the UK in September according to UK customs figures. But few seem to notice the deliveries from bullion banks on Comex into other hands.
So far this year, 457 tonnes have been stood for delivery on Comex, and 6,016 tonnes of silver of which 1,047 tonnes are since Thanksgiving. These are enormous figures for a market where the concept of delivery was purely notional.
There are mounting problems facing in EU which may benefit gold and silver next year. The German coalition government collapsed recently, and elections are called for 23 February. Until then and only if there is a clear outcome, Germany is politically rudderless, when a growing military crisis in Ukraine needs Germany’s full support. And this week, the French government was also in crisis, with Prime Minister Michel Barnier having failed in his attempt to get his budget through and was forced to resign.
Bond market analysts are monitoring closely the spread between French and German bonds, concerned that they could signal a funding crisis for France’s government, which is heading for a budget deficit of 7% next year. The fact is that government finances in the entire G7 are in debt traps (excepting Germany which has other problems) without the political resolve to take the necessary action. This is bad for currencies and good for gold, which is why central banks are selling G7 currencies to buy gold.
In conclusion, gold and silver’s consolidation phase may not be over yet, but selling pressures appear to be minimal while Chinese (and other central banks, wealth funds, and governments) continue to drain physical liquidity out of markets. The squeeze on the shorts is set to return, driving gold and silver higher in the coming months.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Fed chairman’s brazen lies about gold go unchallenged at NY Times conference
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-12-06 08:49 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:54a ET Friday, December 6, 2024
Ðear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Money Metals writer Mike Maharrey yesterday shot down the laughable assertion made this week by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that bitcoin is, “like gold,” merely a “speculative asset” and thus a competitor with gold, not the dollar, because people aren’t using bitcoin for payments or as a store of value.
But as Maharrey notes, “Gold is not a speculative asset. It is widely viewed as a safe-haven hedge and a store of value.” Indeed, gold has been used as money for thousands of years, central banks increasingly accumulate it in recognition that it remains money without counterparty risk, and now even bitcoin is sometimes being used for payments.
Asserting that gold doesn’t compete with the dollar as money, Powell pretended ignorance of the U.S. government’s extensive and decades-long efforts — through laws, policies, and market interventions — to minimize gold’s role in the international financial system, precisely to defeat the monetary metal’s competition with the dollar. Documenting the U.S. government’s open and surreptitious efforts to defend the dollar against competition from gold has been the bulk of GATA’s work for more than 25 years:
Indeed, the documents indicate that defeating the competition posed by gold to the dollar long has been the primary objective of the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury Department, and Western central banking generally.
But just as disgraceful as Powell’s brazen and obvious lies this week was that they were uttered at a conference sponsored by the New York Times and attended by financial journalists, and not one of them challenged the lies.
This could have been easily done, just by shouting out questions like:
“What about the London Gold Pool?”
“What about central bank gold swaps and leases?”
“Why are so many central banks acquiring gold lately?”
“What about the new Basel III standards issued by the Bank for International Settlements recognizing gold as a ‘Tier I’ asset equivalent to dollars and Treasuries?”
Again this week it seemed like the greatest power of central banking is not the power to create infinite money out of nothing but rather the cowardly subservience of what passes for financial journalism.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
This is nuts. I think it will drive demand for real metal as one oz bars are more valuable per oz than 100 oz bars
(Bloomberg)
CME to offer 1-ounce gold futures to divert retail demand from real metal
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-12-06 09:05 Section: Daily Dispatches
CME to Offer 1-Ounce Gold Futures to Meet Surging Demand From Retail Traders
By Yvonne Yue Li
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Thursday, December 5, 2024
CME Group Inc. will start offering a one-ounce gold futures contract in January to meet surging demand from retail investors amid bullion’s record-breaking rally.
There has been a larger trend among retail investors to seek smaller-sized gold products as a way to diversify their portfolios as spot gold hit repeated record highs this year. The precious metal is the go-to haven asset in times of economic and financial uncertainties.
The one-ounce contract is a “great way to lower the barrier to entry in our market,” Jin Hennig, CME’s global head of metals, said in an interview. “Our clientele is also getting younger. That’s a lot more doable.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Interesting ….the tiny nation of Mali issues arrest warrant for Barrick’s CEO Bristow!
Mining companies should not go to dictatorship jurisdictions. This will hurt Barrick as Mali produces around 14% of Barrick’s gold production
(Bloomberg)
Mali issues arrest warrant for Barrick Gold CEO Bristow
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-12-05 23:52 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Katarina Höije and William Clowes
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Mali’s military-controlled government has issued an arrest warrant for money laundering against Barrick Gold Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow amid an escalating dispute over mine revenues in the West African nation.
The authorities in Mali are also seeking to arrest Abbas Coulibaly, the general manager of the Canadian mining company’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex, according to people familiar with the matter.
The warrants mark the latest measures by Mali’s government that target foreign mining companies operating within Africa’s second-largest gold producing nation. The Loulo-Gounkoto operation is significant for Barrick, accounting for nearly 14% of the Toronto-based company’s annual gold production and almost 12% of total revenue last year. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
With central banks leasing of gold do you blame nations for repatriating?
(Jan N)
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Repatriated gold reaches historic highs
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-12-05 13:26 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Thursday, December 5, 2024
The share of global official gold reserves NOT stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Bank of England in London has reached 78% in 2024, from 51% in 1972.
The shift in this ratio appears to be accelerating and can be seen as a proxy for the West’s decline in financial dominance.
“Gold is the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system,” wrote former President of the German central bank, Jens Weidmann, in 2019. Not surprisingly, no national currency has ever become the world reserve currency without a substantial amount of precious metal supporting it.
Before the U.S. dollar, the pound sterling was the world reserve currency. In the 19th century, a significant part of global commerce was transacted in sterling (backed by gold) and cleared in London. Central banks could redeem British pounds for gold and build their metallic reserves at the vault of the Bank of England in the most liquid gold market globally: London. …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 202 ANDREW MAGUIRE INTERVIEWING DR STEPHEN LEEB
Youtube.com/watch?v=KRmUGI2ECxo&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
END
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 202
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 35.22 PTS OR 1.05%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 305.41 PTS OR 1.26%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 304.43 OR 0.77%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .63%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2632 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2672// Oil DOWN TO 67.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 71.30 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2632
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2672
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 35.22PTS OR 1.05%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 305.41 PTS OR 1.26%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 304.43 PTS OR 0.77%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.79 EURO FALLS TO 1.0582 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.042 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.42…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.110 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.194 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.750
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 2.887
3j Gold at $2628.80 /Silver at: 31.08 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 2 AND 00/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 99.00
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.42 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.064% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8771 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9281 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.173 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.323 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.158 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.80…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.3215 UP 2 PTS
10 YR FRANCE YIELD: 2.861 DOWN4 BASIS PTS FRENCH YIELD/GERMANY A HIGH .826 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.076 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.935 DOWN 5 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat Ahead Of “Most Important Economic Data Point Remaining This Year”
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 08:18 AM
Futures are flat ahead of what Goldman called “the most important remaining macro report of 2024”, the November jobs report, which will directly determine if the Fed cuts rates in two weeks. S&P futures were down 0.1% at 8:00am ET, flatlining in a quiet overnight session; Nasdaq 100 futures were fractionally in the green even as Mag 7 stocks are a touch lower this morning. China’s CSI/HIS rallied, along with European Luxury/Autos names. Modest gains in the dollar put the greenback on course to rise for the ninth week out of the last 10. Treasury yields ticked higher by 1-3bps across the curve. Commodities are mostly lower for both oil and base metals; oil extended its slide to a third day. Bitcoin pulled back from its record high, after briefly tumbling as much as 7% before erasing most of the losses. Trump tapped prominent venture capitalist David Sacks as his crypto and AI guy and also picked David Perdue (former CEO of DG with excessive business experience in Asia) to be Ambassador to China last night; Today, all eyes on NFP (preview here): the Street’s estimate is for a 220k print, up sharply from 12k jobs in October, temporarily low due to hurricanes and strikes. For the unemployment rate the Street’s estimate is 4.1%.
In premarket trading, Lululemon surged 9% after the company edged up its full-year outlook on strong sales overseas, a sign the upscale activewear brand is fending off upstart competitors and navigating slower growth in consumer spending. Ulta Beauty jumped 11% after the cosmetics retailer increased its annual projections. Smith & Wesson Brands tumbled 13% after 2Q results at the gunmaker came in weaker than expected. Here are other notable premarket movers:
- Asana (ASAN) surges 25% after the provider of a software tool used by project managers posted a quarterly revenue beat.
- DocuSign (DOCU) gains 13% after the maker of electronic-signature software boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Analysts are positive about early contract renewals.
- Gitlab (GTLB) rises 9% after the software development platform posted strong 3Q results and provided a 4Q EPS forecast that came in ahead of expectations.
- Petco (WOOF) rises 5% after the pet health and wellness company posted 3Q comparable sales that beat expectations.
- Rubrik (RBRK) gains 23% after the data management company boosted its full-year revenue guidance. Demand for data security drove the impressive results, analysts say.
- Veeva Systems (VEEV) rises 7% after the health-care software company boosted its full-year earnings forecast.
- Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) gains 4% after raising its outlook and reporting third-quarter sales that topped Wall Street expectations, saying shoppers had an early positive response to its holiday merchandise.
Today’s jobs report will determine whether the S&P 500 can build on its 27% rally this year. Excitement around artificial intelligence and optimism that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will boost US markets have propelled the benchmark toward its best year since 2019. Economists estimate that US nonfarm payrolls rose by 220,000 in November as hiring rebounded from weather-related and strike disruptions (preview here). It’s the final payrolls report before the Fed’s next interest-rate decision, with swaps trading putting the odds of a quarter-point reduction later this month at around 65%.
“If we get a surprisingly hot number, you can expect pricing to come back more to 50-50,” said Michael Brown, a senior strategist at Pepperstone. “Given the time of the year, market volumes are lighter than usual, so you are more likely to see an outsize reaction — and that’s another reason for people to sit on their hands.”
The S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio has surged to 5.3 times in 2024, approaching a peak of 5.5 hit in March 2000 during the height of the technology bubble, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. BofA’s Hartnett said there’s a high risk of “overshoot” in early 2025 if the S&P 500 nears 6,666 points — about 10% above current levels. He also warned that the rally in US stocks as well as cryptocurrencies has left the asset classes looking frothy.
Meanwhile in Europe, France’s week of political tumult was set to end positively in markets. The nation’s bonds outperformed euro-area peers after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen told Bloomberg News a budget could be delivered within weeks. The euro was steady. As for European stocks, they rose again after six straight sessions of gains, led by a 1.4% gain in the CAC 40 as French President Macron meets with key politicians in an effort to cobble together a new administration. Swedish online pharmacy Apotea steals the spotlight, suriging over 50% in its stock-market debut. Meanwhile, Puig Brands fell to its lowest since IPO earlier this year. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Direct Line rises as much as 8.5% after the insurer said it is minded to recommend the latest takeover proposal from rival Aviva should a firm offer be made. Analysts believe the deal is good
- Apotea surges as much as 52% its debut in Stockholm on Friday, with the online pharmacy showing strong demand for one of Sweden’s biggest initial public offerings this year
- Derichebourg shares jump as much as 9.3% after the environmental services company reported better-than-expected annual results in tough conditions, according to CIC
- IMCD shares rise as much as 4.2% in Amsterdam as Kepler Cheuvreux resumes coverage of the chemicals distributor with a buy rating, following a €300m capital increase
- Troax Group gains as 3% on Friday as SEB Equities starts coverage on the machinery parts and warehouse fittings manufacturer with a buy rating, describing it as a “high-quality asset”
- Puig Brands shares falls to their lowest level since the Spanish beauty firm went public in May after its Charlotte Tilbury brand withdrew some batches of a setting spray product
- Serco drops as much as 5%, reaching a 13-month low, after being hit by a double-downgrade from UBS, which warned the outsourcing company is entering a period of flat earnings growth
- AJ Bell falls as much as 4.4% as Deutsche Bank and Panmure Liberum cut the UK financial services company to hold from buy after the stock hit a record high
- Berkeley Group gives up early gains to slip much as 2.3% as analysts said the housebuilder’s new plan to drive growth over the next decade is likely to lower shareholder returns
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks was little changed, as Korean equities extended declines on political uncertainty, while Chinese shares climbed ahead of a key policy meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased a loss of as much as 0.5% and swung in a narrow range. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix were among the biggest drags on the measure after the rally in tech shares halted on Wall Street overnight. Chinese megacaps Tencent and Alibaba were among the largest boosts to the regional gauge. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.6% to close at its lowest level in three weeks. The nation’s ruling party leader called for swift suspension of the president’s duties, while local media reported speculation on a possible second order of martial law. Military officials said there’s no need to worry about a possible second martial law decree. Hong Kong and mainland China stocks strongly rebounded from Thursday’s loss, with traders looking to next week’s Central Economic Work Conference for more details on stimulus. Japanese and Australian equities tracked US peers lower. Stocks in India were steady after the central bank kept borrowing rates unchanged but eased the cash reserve ratio requirement.
In FX, the euro is little changed but is still one of the better performing G-10 currencies. The yen drops 0.4% while the kiwi is the weakest of the G-10’s. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%.
In rates, treasuries are flat ahead of the US jobs report, with US 10-year yields unchanged at 4.18%. Treasuries extended Thursday’s curve-flattening move. Front-end yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper on the day with long-end slightly richer, amid similar price action in core European bonds. French bonds outperform after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen said Thursday that a budget could be delivered in weeks. US session includes November jobs report at 8:30am New York time and four scheduled Fed speakers ahead of self-imposed quiet period beginning Saturday.
In commodities, oil added to its declines on concerns that OPEC+’s decision to push back the revival of halted production won’t prevent a surplus forming next year. WTI fell 0.5% to $67.90 a barrel. Spot gold rises $5 to $2,637/oz. Bitcoin falls 1%, having failed to sustain a break above $100,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, we get the November jobs report (8:30am), December preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and October consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:15am), Goolsbee (10:30am), Hammack (12pm) and Daly (1pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,085.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 520.74
- MXAP down 0.1% to 186.69
- MXAPJ up 0.2% to 587.00
- Nikkei down 0.8% to 39,091.17
- Topix down 0.5% to 2,727.22
- Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 19,865.85
- Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,404.08
- Sensex down 0.1% to 81,644.02
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 8,420.85
- Kospi down 0.6% to 2,428.16
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.12%
- Euro down 0.1% to $1.0572
- Brent Futures down 0.5% to $71.75/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,640.27
- US Dollar Index up 0.15% to 105.87
Top Overnight News
- It looks increasingly like South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will be impeached after the ruling party’s leader called for his quick suspension. The acting defense minister denied rumors about a second imposition of martial law. BBG
- South Korea’s central bank chief warns that Trump’s trade policies and increased competition from Chinese exporters are a greater threat to the country’s economy than the current martial law crisis. FT
- The Bank of Japan is staying guarded on the timing of the next rate hike with December hardly a done deal given soft consumption, its governor’s cautious decision-making style and anxiety over U.S. economic policy in a second Trump presidency. RTRS
- India’s central bank unexpectedly cut its cash reserve ratio by 50 bps to 4%, while keeping its key rate unchanged. The RBI announced measures to attract foreign inflows to stem a decline in the rupee. BBG
- German industrial production unexpectedly fell in October. Output decreased 1% from the previous month, worse than any forecast in a Bloomberg survey. BBG
- We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 235k in November, above consensus of +215k and the three-month average of +104k. Alternative measures of employment growth generally indicated a sequentially stronger pace of job creation, and the end of strikes and the recent hurricanes that weighed on October job growth will likely boost November job growth. GIR
- Trump picked former Sen. David Perdue, who was the CEO of Dollar General and has extensive business experience in Asia, to become the next ambassador to China. Politico
- Trump named venture capitalist David Sacks to become the “White House AI and Crypto Czar” and lead the Presidential Council of Advisors for Science and Technology. Donald Trump said the venture capitalist will focus on making the US the “clear leader” in the fields. Politico, BBG
- Investors have pumped almost $140bn into US equity funds since last month’s election as traders bet Donald Trump’s administration will unleash sweeping tax cuts and reforms in a boon to corporate America. FT
- $136.4bln inflow to cash in week to Wednesday – largest weekly inflow since March 2023. Stocks: USD 8.2bln inflow, Bonds: USD 4.9bln inflow, Crypto: USD 3bln (largest every 4-week inflow of 11bln), YTD inflows: USD 53bln annualised: BofA Weekly Flow Show: USD
A more detailed look at markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed with some cautiousness in the region after the weak lead from Wall St and ahead of the key US jobs data. ASX 200 was dragged lower by early underperformance in tech and healthcare, while gold miners also suffered after initial declines in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 was the laggard and briefly fell beneath the 39,000 level despite encouraging Household Spending data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were buoyed despite the lack of any major fresh catalysts heading into next week’s trade and inflation data releases, as well as the Central Economic Work Conference where Chinese leaders are said to discuss economic growth and stimulus.
Top Asian News
- China may let provinces approve special bond projects, according to Caixin news.
- RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained its neutral stance with the rate decision made by 4 out of 6 voting in favour of a hold and the policy stance vote was unanimous. However, RBI Governor Das later announced a surprise cut to the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50bps to 4.00% which will take effect in two tranches of 25bps each on December 14th and December 28th which will infuse liquidity of INR 1.16tln. Das said price stability is a mandate given to them and growth is also very important, while he noted the last mile of disinflation is prolonged and recent growth slowdown will lead to downward revision for full-year growth. Das acknowledged that inflation crossed the upper band and food inflation pressures will linger with food prices to start easing only in Q4, while headline inflation is likely to be elevated in Q3 and he noted a status quo in this policy is appropriate and essential. Das said the near-term inflation and growth outlook has turned somewhat adverse, while India’s FY25 real GDP growth forecast was cut to 6.6% versus 7.2% previously and the FY25 CPI inflation forecast was raised to 4.8% versus 4.5% previously. Das also announced to introduce a new benchmark called the secured overnight rupee rate and said in order to attract more capital inflows, to increase interest rate ceilings on FCNR-B deposits.
- RBI Governor Das said expect tight liquidity in the next few months; there is a possibility of increase in currency in circulation.
- South Korean ruling party leader Han said President Yoon needs to be suspended from his office ASAP and that Yoon ordered to arrest prominent politicians on the grounds they are anti-state forces. It was also reported that South Korea’s main opposition party said lawmakers were on high alert after many reports of another martial law declaration, although the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff later said there is no need to worry about a second martial law and the special warfare commander also said he would refuse should another martial law order come.
Mixed performance thus far from Europe following a flat open amidst a lack of fresh pertinent catalysts and in the run-up to the US jobs report later today which will help shape expectations for near-term Fed policy. European Sectors are mixed with no clear bias or theme, with the breadth of the market narrow at the open before gradually widening. In terms of majors, CAC 40 narrowly outperforms in the aftermath of the French political developments as President Macron looks to name a new PM within days, with French Banks once again seeing a strong performance. Furthermore, luxury stocks see upside amid a possible China play in the run-up to the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference next week. US equity futures see flat trade across the board but with a mild downward bias in the RTY in a continuation of its recent underperformance, with traders awaiting the latest US jobs report.
Top European News
- French Socialists have expressed a willingness to work with a Macronist or Republican Prime Minister if “reciprocal concessions” are made, according to Politics Global.
- Riksbank’s Seim said if economic and inflation outlook remains unchanged, policy rate can be cut again in December and again in H1 2025.
FX
- USD is a touch firmer vs. most peers in the run-up to today’s NFP print which is expected to pick up to 200k vs. October’s weather/strike-impacted 12k.
- EUR’s rally vs. the USD has paused for breath after vaulting from a 1.0508 low yesterday to a 1.0593 peak today. Support yesterday was derived from some relief around the French budget situation with Le Pen optimistic that a 2025 budget can be passed in the coming weeks.
- JPY is softer vs. the USD despite some fleeting support from comments by Japan’s main Opposition party Chief who said the BoJ should normalise monetary policy, adding it is wrong to focus too much on keeping monetary policy loose when Japan is experiencing inflation. USD/JPY has made its way back onto a 150 handle with a current session peak @ 150.60 vs. yesterday’s high @ 150.77. If breached, the 10DMA sits @ 150.99.
- GBP flat vs. the USD in quiet UK newsflow asides from comments by BoE’s Greene who said UK services inflation has remained stubbornly high, underpinned by wage growth and the supply side of the UK economy is weak. Cable briefly rose above the top end of yesterday’s 1.2693-1.2771 range before fading gains.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD and at the foot of the G10 leaderboard. AUD/USD briefly slipped below yesterday’s 0.6421. If breached again, the next target is the 0.64 mark with Wednesday’s low just below @ 0.6399. NZD/USD is just about holding above yesterday’s 0.5848 low. If breached, Wednesday’s low sits @ 0.5829.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1848 vs exp. 7.2396 (prev. 7.1879)
Fixed Income
- USTs are a touch lower following yesterday’s flattening of the curve. Fresh macro drivers for the US are on the light side in the run-up to today’s NFP print. Mar’25 UTSs are currently towards the top end of yesterday’s 110.28+ to 111.08+ range.
- Bunds a touch higher but off best levels as support from soft German Industrial Production metrics proved to be fleeting. There was no clear driver for the pullback. However, German paper has continued to fall behind its French equivalent. This move garnered traction following comments from far-right leader Le Pen who stated she sees a 2025 budget being passed in the coming weeks. Accordingly, the FR/GE spread has narrowed to its lowest level since November 21st.
- Gilts are just above the unchanged mark with fresh UK drivers lacking since the “dovish” Governor Bailey interview earlier in the week. Thus far the Mar’25 contract sits towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 95.69-96.18 range, whilst the 10yr yield remains north of 4.25%.
Commodities
- Crude complex experiences a modest downward tilt with prices lacklustre after the prior day’s choppy performance amid the deluge of OPEC+ updates, with traders keeping an eye on geopolitical updates ahead of the US jobs report.
- Spot gold holds a modest upward bias ahead of NFP. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,613-2,645.73/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s USD 2,623.61/oz low. Prices remain sandwiched between the 50 DMA (USD 2.667.96/oz) and 100 DMA (2,583.44/oz).
- Copper grinds higher as traders look ahead to the US jobs report, and thereafter the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference next week whereby the focus will likely be on whether there’s a new emphasis on boosting domestic demand or supporting the property market.
- Morgan Stanley raised its H2 2025 Brent price forecast to USD 70/bbl (prev. USD 66-68/bbl); and lowered its estimate for OPEC-9 production by 400k BPD for 2025 and 700k BPD by Q4 2025. The desk said the OPEC+ updated production agreement tightens its supply/demand outlook for 2025, particularly for H2. MS still estimates a surplus for the oil market next year, but smaller than before.
- Qatar set January Marine crude and Land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.15/bbl.
- Oil supplies to Czech Republic via Druzbha were resumed today, according to CTK citing Orlen CEO.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Senior Iranian official said Tehran has taken all necessary steps to increase number of military advisers in Syria and deploy troops; likely that Tehran will need to send military equipment, missiles, and drones to Syria.
- IDF announces interception of suspicious air target after warnings in Upper Galilee, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they are very worried after what happened in Syria, while he spoke with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts and they agreed to meet this week, according to Al Jazeera
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- White House stated regarding National Security Advisor Sullivan’s meeting with Ukrainian officials that Sullivan focused the discussion on the President’s theory of the case to improve Ukraine’s position in its war against Russia, while it was stated that Ukraine’s position in this war will improve relative to Russia’s as we enter into 2025 and will allow Ukraine to enter any future negotiating process from a position of strength.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said the use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine means the West must understand that Russia is ready to use anything to stop notions of inflicting a strategic defeat on Moscow, while he added it is a mistake for anyone in the West to suggest that Russia has no red lines. It was separately reported that the Foreign Minister said Russia sees no reason why Moscow and Washington should not cooperate for the sake of the world.
Geopolitics: Other
- Taiwan’s President Lai said he hopes China does not take any unilateral actions and noted that more Chinese military drills won’t win respect from any other countries in the region, while he added that authoritarian countries should not see Taiwan’s engagement with other countries as a provocation and hopes China returns to rules-based international order. Furthermore, he said Taiwan’s people cannot accept China’s military operating around Taiwan, as well as noted that peace is priceless and there’s no winner in a war but also stated they cannot have any illusions about peace and must continue to strengthen defences.
- Armed forces from Japan, Philippines, and US conducted “multilateral maritime cooperative activity” within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 220,000, prior 12,000
- Nov. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 30,000, prior -46,000
- Nov. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 205,000, prior -28,000
- Nov. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
- Nov. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.6%
- Nov. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.7%
- Nov. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.3, prior 34.3
- Nov. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.9%, prior 4.0%
- Nov. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
- 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 73.3, prior 71.8
- Dec. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 65.2, prior 63.9
- Dec. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 77.7, prior 76.9
- Dec. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.7%, prior 2.6%
- Dec. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.1%, prior 3.2%
- 15:00: Oct. Consumer Credit, est. $10b, prior $6b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Just two weeks now until most people’s Xmas vacation start and one of my 7-year old twins last night declared for the first time that he didn’t think Santa was real which means the only holdouts in the family now thinking Santa is real are his identical brother and Brontë the dog. The end of the innocence is nearer in our family.
Just when you thought it was safe to relax into Christmas, along comes US payrolls today to keep you on your toes, especially with an upcoming close call as to whether the Fed cuts in 12 days time. Futures are currently pricing in a 70% probability that they will.
The Santa Claus rally we’ve seen over the last few weeks took a little breather last night in the US ahead of the data today. The S&P 500 (-0.19%) just missed out on 12 days of gains in the last 13 sessions, which would have been the first such run since 2013. However a more recent run continued in Europe yesterday as the STOXX 600 (+0.40%) was up for a 6th consecutive session.
As a background to today’s report, last month underwhelmed, with nonfarm payrolls printing at just +12k, which was the weakest since December 2020 when the pandemic was still buffeting the economy. Private payrolls were at -28k, the first negative print since December 2020. But those numbers were impacted by strike action, whilst Hurricane Milton also hit Florida during the survey reference period. Our US economists expect a decent bounce back to +215k today. That would leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, and they also see average hourly earnings growth at +0.3%.
Moving back across the Atlantic, France continues to serve up an abundance of headlines. Michel Barnier has now officially resigned, but will be staying on until a new Prime Minister is appointed. President Macron, in a televised speech last night, reiterated his plan to remain President for the remainder of his term until 2027 and said he would appoint a new PM in the “coming days.” Macron criticised both political flanks, saying that far-left and far-right legislators tried to provoke an early presidential election, before stating that the new government’s priority will be approving a budget. There is a concern amongst some lawmakers that the special stopgap emergency powers could lead to higher taxes for millions of families, however Le Pen called the stopgap legislation better than former PM Barnier’s plan.
Before Macron’s evening speech, markets became increasingly relaxed about France’s debt risk, with the Franco-German 10yr spread tightening a further -5.7bps tighter yesterday to 77.8bps. That came as Marine Le Pen gave a surprise Bloomberg interview, which was taken constructively by investors, as she said that France could pass a budget in “a matter of weeks” if the next PM was prepared to cut the deficit at a slower pace. So that suggestion of a compromise helped spreads to tighten, and the move yesterday was actually the biggest daily decline in the spread since July right after the first round of the legislative election.
For more information, Henry wrote a note here on why this is a long way from the sovereign debt crisis. One particular difference is we’ve not seen any signs of contagion from France to other countries, and only yesterday both the Italian and the Spanish 10yr spreads over bunds reached their tightest level in 3 years, at 108.7bps and 65.5bps respectively.
In response to the more stable politics, European equities had a decent session yesterday but the French market didn’t out-perform as with their Government debt. Nevertheless, the STOXX 600 (+0.40%), the CAC 40 (+0.37%) and the DAX (+0.63%) all advanced for a 6th consecutive session with the DAX hitting a fresh record high.
The S&P 500 oscillated between gains and losses before ultimately closing -0.19% lower. That said, there was quite a divergence between mega caps and small caps, as the Magnificent 7 (+0.38%) moved up to another record, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -1.25%. Treasury curves flattened as the 2yr yield was +1.8bps up to 4.144%, whilst the 10yr yield (-0.04bps) was broadly flat at 4.176%. Later on, Richmond Fed President Barkin spoke to the potential inflationary pressures of the Trump administration’s tariff plan, saying that tariffs are an “inflationary pressure,” and that the overall impact depends on how consumers, corporates and the Fed all deal with them. He also noted that consumers have started pushing back on higher prices, and demand may not stay as strong if prices continue to climb. We’ll hear from a few more Fed speakers today after the jobs report, and bear in mind that it’s the last opportunity for them to speak ahead of their pre-meeting blackout period.
In terms of data yesterday, the weekly initial jobless claims were a bit worse than expected. They ticked up to a 6-week high of 224k (vs. 215k expected) in the week ending November 30, which slightly pushed up the 4-week average to 218.25k. The rise wasn’t particularly big, and the continuing claims for the previous week came down, so it wasn’t a one-sided picture.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower outside of China this morning. The Nikkei (-0.88%) is leading losses with the KOSPI (-0.37%) also lower but both well off their lows. Chinese stocks are outperforming with the Hang Seng (+1.34%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.01%) strong ahead of a key Chinese economic meeting next week. S&P 500 (-0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.01%) futures are just on the wrong side of flat.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s household spending contracted in October for the third straight month, falling -1.3% y/y (but better than the -2.5% expected) as against a -1.1% drop the previous month. Separately, Base pay for full-time workers increased by +2.8% in October from a year ago, the biggest gain for comparable data back to 1994.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for November, but we’ll also get the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December, and German industrial production for October. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack and Daly.
2B) European report
Stocks steady ahead of upcoming US jobs print – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 06:03 AM
- European stocks are mixed and US futures trade sideways amidst a lack of fresh pertinent catalysts in the run-up to the US jobs report.
- USD is a touch firmer vs. most peers in the run-up to today’s NFP print, EUR’s rally vs. the USD has paused for breath, JPY and Antipodeans are softer.
- USTs are a touch lower following yesterday’s flattening of the curve. Fresh macro drivers for the US are on the light side in the run-up to today’s NFP print.
- Bitcoin gradually edged higher and briefly reclaimed the USD 98,000 level after yesterday’s pullback from a record high north of USD 103,000.
- Looking ahead, highlights s include Canadian jobs data, US jobs report & Univ. of Michigan, Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack & Daly.
SNAPSHOT
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- Mixed performance thus far from Europe following a flat open amidst a lack of fresh pertinent catalysts and in the run-up to the US jobs report later today which will help shape expectations for near-term Fed policy.
- European Sectors are mixed with no clear bias or theme, with the breadth of the market narrow at the open before gradually widening.
- In terms of majors, CAC 40 narrowly outperforms in the aftermath of the French political developments as President Macron looks to name a new PM within days, with French Banks once again seeing a strong performance. Furthermore, luxury stocks see upside amid a possible China play in the run-up to the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference next week.
- US equity futures see flat trade across the board but with a mild downward bias in the RTY in a continuation of its recent underperformance, with traders awaiting the latest US jobs report.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- USD is a touch firmer vs. most peers in the run-up to today’s NFP print which is expected to pick up to 200k vs. October’s weather/strike-impacted 12k.
- EUR‘s rally vs. the USD has paused for breath after vaulting from a 1.0508 low yesterday to a 1.0593 peak today. Support yesterday was derived from some relief around the French budget situation with Le Pen optimistic that a 2025 budget can be passed in the coming weeks.
- JPY is softer vs. the USD despite some fleeting support from comments by Japan’s main Opposition party Chief who said the BoJ should normalise monetary policy, adding it is wrong to focus too much on keeping monetary policy loose when Japan is experiencing inflation. USD/JPY has made its way back onto a 150 handle with a current session peak @ 150.60 vs. yesterday’s high @ 150.77. If breached, the 10DMA sits @ 150.99.
- GBP flat vs. the USD in quiet UK newsflow asides from comments by BoE’s Greene who said UK services inflation has remained stubbornly high, underpinned by wage growth and the supply side of the UK economy is weak. Cable briefly rose above the top end of yesterday’s 1.2693-1.2771 range before fading gains.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD and at the foot of the G10 leaderboard. AUD/USD briefly slipped below yesterday’s 0.6421. If breached again, the next target is the 0.64 mark with Wednesday’s low just below @ 0.6399. NZD/USD is just about holding above yesterday’s 0.5848 low. If breached, Wednesday’s low sits @ 0.5829.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1848 vs exp. 7.2396 (prev. 7.1879)
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are a touch lower following yesterday’s flattening of the curve. Fresh macro drivers for the US are on the light side in the run-up to today’s NFP print. Mar’25 UTSs are currently towards the top end of yesterday’s 110.28+ to 111.08+ range.
- Bunds a touch higher but off best levels as support from soft German Industrial Production metrics proved to be fleeting. There was no clear driver for the pullback. However, German paper has continued to fall behind its French equivalent. This move garnered traction following comments from far-right leader Le Pen who stated she sees a 2025 budget being passed in the coming weeks. Accordingly, the FR/GE spread has narrowed to its lowest level since November 21st.
- Gilts are just above the unchanged mark with fresh UK drivers lacking since the “dovish” Governor Bailey interview earlier in the week. Thus far the Mar’25 contract sits towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 95.69-96.18 range, whilst the 10yr yield remains north of 4.25%.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude complex experiences a modest downward tilt with prices lacklustre after the prior day’s choppy performance amid the deluge of OPEC+ updates, with traders keeping an eye on geopolitical updates ahead of the US jobs report.
- Spot gold holds a modest upward bias ahead of NFP. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,613-2,645.73/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s USD 2,623.61/oz low. Prices remain sandwiched between the 50 DMA (USD 2.667.96/oz) and 100 DMA (2,583.44/oz).
- Copper grinds higher as traders look ahead to the US jobs report, and thereafter the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference next week whereby the focus will likely be on whether there’s a new emphasis on boosting domestic demand or supporting the property market.
- Morgan Stanley raised its H2 2025 Brent price forecast to USD 70/bbl (prev. USD 66-68/bbl); and lowered its estimate for OPEC-9 production by 400k BPD for 2025 and 700k BPD by Q4 2025. The desk said the OPEC+ updated production agreement tightens its supply/demand outlook for 2025, particularly for H2. MS still estimates a surplus for the oil market next year, but smaller than before.
- Qatar set January Marine crude and Land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.15/bbl.
- Oil supplies to Czech Republic via Druzbha were resumed today, according to CTK citing Orlen CEO.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU Employment Final YY (Q3) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%)
- EU Employment Final QQ (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
- EU GDP Revised YY (Q3) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)
- EU GDP Revised QQ (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- UK Halifax House Prices MM (Nov) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.4%)
- German Industrial Output MM (Oct) -1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -2.5%)
- French Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Oct) -7.666B (Prev. -8.266B, Rev. -8.418B)
- French Imports, EUR (Oct) 56.404B (Prev. 56.853B, Rev. 56.710B)
- French Exports, EUR (Oct) 48.738B (Prev. 48.587B, Rev. 48.292B)
- French Current Account (Oct) -2.6B (Prev. -2.1B, Rev. -2.4B)
- Italian Retail Sales NSA YY (Oct) 2.6% (Prev. 0.7%)
- Italian Retail Sales SA MM (Oct) -0.5% (Prev. 1.2%)
- Norwegian Manufacturing Output MM (Oct) -1.6% (Prev. -0.8%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- French Socialists have expressed a willingness to work with a Macronist or Republican Prime Minister if “reciprocal concessions” are made, according to Politics Global.
- Riksbank’s Seim said if economic and inflation outlook remains unchanged, policy rate can be cut again in December and again in H1 2025.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- BofA Weekly Flow Show: USD 136.4bln inflow to cash in week to Wednesday – largest weekly inflow since March 2023. Stocks: USD 8.2bln inflow, Bonds: USD 4.9bln inflow, Crypto: USD 3bln (largest every 4-week inflow of 11bln), YTD inflows: USD 53bln annualised, Bull/Bear Indicator: 3.7 (prev. 4.7)
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually edged higher and briefly reclaimed the USD 98,000 level after yesterday’s pullback from a record high north of USD 103,000.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Senior Iranian official said Tehran has taken all necessary steps to increase number of military advisers in Syria and deploy troops; likely that Tehran will need to send military equipment, missiles, and drones to Syria.
- IDF announces interception of suspicious air target after warnings in Upper Galilee, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they are very worried after what happened in Syria, while he spoke with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts and they agreed to meet this week, according to Al Jazeera
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- White House stated regarding National Security Advisor Sullivan’s meeting with Ukrainian officials that Sullivan focused the discussion on the President’s theory of the case to improve Ukraine’s position in its war against Russia, while it was stated that Ukraine’s position in this war will improve relative to Russia’s as we enter into 2025 and will allow Ukraine to enter any future negotiating process from a position of strength.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said the use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine means the West must understand that Russia is ready to use anything to stop notions of inflicting a strategic defeat on Moscow, while he added it is a mistake for anyone in the West to suggest that Russia has no red lines. It was separately reported that the Foreign Minister said Russia sees no reason why Moscow and Washington should not cooperate for the sake of the world.
OTHER
- Taiwan’s President Lai said he hopes China does not take any unilateral actions and noted that more Chinese military drills won’t win respect from any other countries in the region, while he added that authoritarian countries should not see Taiwan’s engagement with other countries as a provocation and hopes China returns to rules-based international order. Furthermore, he said Taiwan’s people cannot accept China’s military operating around Taiwan, as well as noted that peace is priceless and there’s no winner in a war but also stated they cannot have any illusions about peace and must continue to strengthen defences.
- Armed forces from Japan, Philippines, and US conducted “multilateral maritime cooperative activity” within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mixed with some cautiousness in the region after the weak lead from Wall St and ahead of the key US jobs data.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by early underperformance in tech and healthcare, while gold miners also suffered after initial declines in the precious metal.
- Nikkei 225 was the laggard and briefly fell beneath the 39,000 level despite encouraging Household Spending data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were buoyed despite the lack of any major fresh catalysts heading into next week’s trade and inflation data releases, as well as the Central Economic Work Conference where Chinese leaders are said to discuss economic growth and stimulus.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China may let provinces approve special bond projects, according to Caixin news.
- RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained its neutral stance with the rate decision made by 4 out of 6 voting in favour of a hold and the policy stance vote was unanimous. However, RBI Governor Das later announced a surprise cut to the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50bps to 4.00% which will take effect in two tranches of 25bps each on December 14th and December 28th which will infuse liquidity of INR 1.16tln. Das said price stability is a mandate given to them and growth is also very important, while he noted the last mile of disinflation is prolonged and recent growth slowdown will lead to downward revision for full-year growth. Das acknowledged that inflation crossed the upper band and food inflation pressures will linger with food prices to start easing only in Q4, while headline inflation is likely to be elevated in Q3 and he noted a status quo in this policy is appropriate and essential. Das said the near-term inflation and growth outlook has turned somewhat adverse, while India’s FY25 real GDP growth forecast was cut to 6.6% versus 7.2% previously and the FY25 CPI inflation forecast was raised to 4.8% versus 4.5% previously. Das also announced to introduce a new benchmark called the secured overnight rupee rate and said in order to attract more capital inflows, to increase interest rate ceilings on FCNR-B deposits.
- RBI Governor Das said expect tight liquidity in the next few months; there is a possibility of increase in currency in circulation.
- South Korean ruling party leader Han said President Yoon needs to be suspended from his office ASAP and that Yoon ordered to arrest prominent politicians on the grounds they are anti-state forces. It was also reported that South Korea’s main opposition party said lawmakers were on high alert after many reports of another martial law declaration, although the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff later said there is no need to worry about a second martial law and the special warfare commander also said he would refuse should another martial law order come.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (Oct) 2.9% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -1.3%)
- Japanese All Household Spending YY (Oct) -1.3% vs. Exp. -2.6% (Prev. -1.1%)
- Japanese Overall Labour Cash Earnings (Oct) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC traded mixed with cautiousness ahead of US jobs data – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 01:57 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed with some cautiousness in the region after the weak lead from Wall St and ahead of the key US jobs data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Thursday.
- DXY is a touch firmer but still on a 105 handle, antipodeans marginally lag, USD/JPY lingers around 150.
- Bunds have nursed some of the prior day’s declines, crude futures are lacklustre post-OPEC+.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Canadian jobs data, US jobs report & Univ. of Michigan, Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack & Daly.
SNAPSHOT
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were choppy and ultimately finished the session mildly lower with the small-cap Russell 2000 continuing its underperformance amid little in the way of macro drivers although the data releases showed Initial Jobless Claims disappointed and there were also higher Challenger Layoffs ahead of the looming NFP report on Friday. Sector-wise, upside was seen in Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Utilities, Financials and Staples but Materials, Healthcare and Industrials were pressured, while crypto stocks benefitted at the open following BTC hitting the 100k milestone, peaking at 103k, although the gains were erased as BTC pared the majority of the upside.
- SPX -0.19% at 6,075, NDX -0.31% at 21,425, DJIA -0.55% at 44,766, RUT -1.25% at 2,396.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump named David O. Sacks to be the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar”, while he also named former Senator David Perdue to be Ambassador to China, Rodney S. Scott as Commissioner of United States Customs and Border Protection, and Caleb Vitello as Acting Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed with some cautiousness in the region after the weak lead from Wall St and ahead of the key US jobs data.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by early underperformance in tech and healthcare, while gold miners also suffered after initial declines in the precious metal.
- Nikkei 225 was the laggard and briefly fell beneath the 39,000 level despite encouraging Household Spending data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were buoyed despite the lack of any major fresh catalysts heading into next week’s trade and inflation data releases, as well as the Central Economic Work Conference where Chinese leaders are said to discuss economic growth and stimulus.
- US equity futures (ES -0.1%) traded uneventfully with demand constrained ahead of the key US jobs data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY regained some composure after weakening against its peers yesterday with the greenback not helped by the higher-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims and increase in Challenger Layoffs data, while trade is rangebound overnight as the attention now shifts to NFP jobs data and with several Fed speakers also scheduled.
- EUR/USD slightly eased from this week’s peak after gaining against the dollar but with trade confined beneath the 1.0600 level amid French political uncertainty.
- GBP/USD took a breather following its gradual advances and loitered around 1.2750 amid a lack of notable catalysts.
- USD/JPY traded indecisively on both sides of the 150.00 level following better-than-expected Household Spending data and in-line Labour Cash Earnings.
- Antipodeans retreated amid the cautious risk appetite and early pressure in commodity prices, while Standard Chartered suggested the RBA could have a dovish surprise although the latest Reuters poll showed unanimous expectation for the central bank to keep rates on hold at next week’s meeting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1848 vs exp. 7.2396 (prev. 7.1879)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures traded sideways with participants lacking commitment ahead of the key US jobs data.
- Bund futures nursed some of the prior day’s declines after slipping amid reports that EU nations are discussing a EUR 500bln joint fund for common defence projects and arms procurement and will tap the bond market ahead of Trump’s return to the White House.
- 10yr JGB futures gradually edged higher amid the weakness in Japanese stocks but with gains in JGBs capped after better-than-expected Japanese Household Spending data and as the question remains on whether the BoJ will resume its rate hikes this month.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lacklustre after the prior day’s choppy performance amid the deluge of OPEC+ updates and despite the group postponing the start of planned output hikes to April 2025 and extended production cuts for OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries until 31st Dec 2026.
- UAE’s ADNOC set January Murban crude OSP at USD 72.81/bbl.
- Qatar set January Marine crude and Land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.15/bbl.
- Spot gold initially retreated in tandem with the declines seen in silver as Chinese commodities got underway but then recovered losses and more.
- Copper futures swung between gains and losses amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia but eventually gained amid the constructive mood in its largest buyer.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually edged higher overnight and reclaimed the USD 98,000 level after yesterday’s pullback from a record high north of USD 103,000.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained its neutral stance with the rate decision made by 4 out of 6 voting in favour of a hold and the policy stance vote was unanimous. However, RBI Governor Das later announced a surprise cut to the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50bps to 4.00% which will take effect in two tranches of 25bps each on December 14th and December 28th which will infuse liquidity of INR 1.16tln. Das said price stability is a mandate given to them and growth is also very important, while he noted the last mile of disinflation is prolonged and recent growth slowdown will lead to downward revision for full-year growth. Das acknowledged that inflation crossed the upper band and food inflation pressures will linger with food prices to start easing only in Q4, while headline inflation is likely to be elevated in Q3 and he noted a status quo in this policy is appropriate and essential. Das said the near-term inflation and growth outlook has turned somewhat adverse, while India’s FY25 real GDP growth forecast was cut to 6.6% versus 7.2% previously and the FY25 CPI inflation forecast was raised to 4.8% versus 4.5% previously. Das also announced to introduce a new benchmark called the secured overnight rupee rate and said in order to attract more capital inflows, to increase interest rate ceilings on FCNR-B deposits.
- South Korean ruling party leader Han said President Yoon needs to be suspended from his office ASAP and that Yoon ordered to arrest prominent politicians on the grounds they are anti-state forces. It was also reported that South Korea’s main opposition party said lawmakers were on high alert after many reports of another martial law declaration, although the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff later said there is no need to worry about a second martial law and the special warfare commander also said he would refuse should another martial law order come.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (Oct) 2.9% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -1.3%)
- Japanese All Household Spending YY (Oct) -1.3% vs. Exp. -2.6% (Prev. -1.1%)
- Japanese Overall Labour Cash Earnings (Oct) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli intelligence officials have been startled by a faster-than-expected collapse of the Syrian army’s defence lines, according to Axios.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they are very worried after what happened in Syria, while he spoke with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts and they agreed to meet this week, according to Al Jazeera
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- White House stated regarding National Security Advisor Sullivan’s meeting with Ukrainian officials that Sullivan focused the discussion on the President’s theory of the case to improve Ukraine’s position in its war against Russia, while it was stated that Ukraine’s position in this war will improve relative to Russia’s as we enter into 2025 and will allow Ukraine to enter any future negotiating process from a position of strength.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said the use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine means the West must understand that Russia is ready to use anything to stop notions of inflicting a strategic defeat on Moscow, while he added it is a mistake for anyone in the West to suggest that Russia has no red lines. It was separately reported that the Foreign Minister said Russia sees no reason why Moscow and Washington should not cooperate for the sake of the world.
OTHER
- Taiwan’s President Lai said he hopes China does not take any unilateral actions and noted that more Chinese military drills won’t win respect from any other countries in the region, while he added that authoritarian countries should not see Taiwan’s engagement with other countries as a provocation and hopes China returns to rules-based international order. Furthermore, he said Taiwan’s people cannot accept China’s military operating around Taiwan, as well as noted that peace is priceless and there’s no winner in a war but also stated they cannot have any illusions about peace and must continue to strengthen defences.
- Armed forces from Japan, Philippines, and US conducted “multilateral maritime cooperative activity” within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Greene said UK services inflation has remained stubbornly high, underpinned by wage growth and the supply side of the UK economy is weak.
- ECB seeks to speed up approvals for significant risk transfers, according to Bloomberg.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
China/USA
Interesting: China linked hackers breach 8 USA telecom companies
(zerohedge)
China-Linked Hackers Breached 8 US Telecom Companies, White House Says
Thursday, Dec 05, 2024 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,
Chinese state-sponsored hackers compromised at least eight U.S. telecommunication companies, a top White House official said on Dec. 4.
Anne Neuberger, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies, provided an update on the Chinese threat actor group called “Salt Typhoon” during a press briefing on Wednesday. The threat group is believed to have hacked into the communications of senior U.S. government officials and prominent political figures, she said.
“We don’t believe any classified communications has been compromised,” Neuberger said.
The Chinese hacking appeared to target a relatively small group of Americans, she added, with only their phone calls and texts compromised.
The telecommunications companies that were breached have responded, but none of them “have fully removed the Chinese actors from these networks,” according to Neuberger.
“So there is a risk of ongoing compromises to communications until U.S. companies address the cybersecurity gaps the Chinese are likely to maintain their access,” Neuberger said.
In October, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) identified the Chinese hacks, saying at the time that an investigation was underway.
In late November, Neuberger and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan hosted telecommunications executives for a meeting to share intelligence and discuss how the U.S. government and the private sector could work together.
Neuberger said President Joe Biden has been briefed multiple times on the issue. The White House “has made it a priority for the federal government to do everything it can,” she added.
Additionally, Neuberger pointed to efforts to improve cybersecurity in multiple sectors including rail and energy, after the 2021 ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline.
“So, to prevent ongoing Salt Typhoon type intrusions by China, we believe we need to apply a similar minimum cybersecurity practice,” Neuberger said.
Also at Wednesday’s press briefing, a senior administration official said Salt Typhoon’s activities started at least a year or two ago. Additionally, the official said a “couple dozen” countries have been impacted by the Chinese hacking.
The FBI and the CSIA issued a joint statement on Nov. 13, revealing that Chinese hackers had compromised the networks of multiple telecom companies and stole customer call records and private communications from “a limited number of individuals who are primarily involved in government or political activity.”
On Tuesday, the FBI, the CISA, the National Security Agency (NSA), and international partners published a guide on best practices for protecting communication infrastructures.
CISA Executive Assistant Director for Cybersecurity Jeff Greene conceded on Tuesday that he didn’t have a timeline on when Chinese hackers could be purged from U.S. telecom networks.
“It would be impossible for us to predict when we’ll have full eviction,” Greene said at the time.
In September, the Justice Department announced that the FBI had taken down a botnet associated with “Flax Typhoon,” a threat group operating through the Beijing-based Integrity Technology Group. The botnet consisted of more than 200,000 consumer devices—such as network cameras, video recorders, and home and office routers—in the United States and elsewhere.
Another Chinese threat group, “Volt Typhoon,” began targeting a wide range of networks across U.S. critical infrastructure in 2021. The group, which was dismantled by a multi-agency operation in January, had maintained “access and footholds within some victim IT environments for at least five years,” according to CISA.
On Dec. 3, Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), a member of the House Committee on Homeland Security, said her legislation, officially known as the Strengthening Cyber Resilience Against State-Sponsored Threats Act, will combat the Chinese Communist Party’s growing threats against U.S. critical infrastructure.
“The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue to exploit and undermine our national security every chance they get. We must stand up against foreign adversaries,” Lee wrote on the social media platform X.
If enacted, the legislation (H.R.9769) would create an interagency task force led by CISA and the FBI to deal with cybersecurity threats posed by China’s state-sponsored cyber threat groups. It would also require the new task force to inform Congress of its findings every year for five years.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
END
ISRAEL///HAMAS//
18,000 Palestinians told to evacuate ahead of a raid in the North of Gaza
(Times of Israel)
18,000 Palestinians said to evacuate north Gaza’s Beit Lahiya in past day
Some 18,000 Palestinian civilians have been evacuated from northern Gaza’s Beit Lahiya in the past day, according to a report by Army Radio.
Before entering the town in the Strip’s far north last month, the IDF estimated that only a few thousand Palestinians were residing there.
During the evacuation of the population from several shelters in the combat zone, troops detained around 100 suspected terror operatives who were taken to Israel for questioning, the report says.
The military has previously denied it is seeking to forcibly displace Palestinians in Gaza, saying that “the IDF’s warnings to members of the civilian population to temporarily distance themselves from areas expected to be exposed to intense warfare are made in accordance with the obligation under international law to take feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm by providing advance warnings prior to attacks. The IDF only operates in areas in which there is known to be a militant presence, and is still at this time working to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure in various areas throughout the Gaza Strip.”
Troops killed some 20 terror operatives during fighting in Beit Lahiya in the past day, Army Radio says, a relatively low figure compared to recent weeks, as combat in the area has become less intense.
The IDF launched an offensive against Hamas in the Strip’s far northern towns of Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun in early October. So far, the military estimates that it has killed at least 1,750 terror operatives.
Another 1,300 have been detained, and around 90,000 civilians have been evacuated from the area.
Thirty-one IDF soldiers have been killed so far in the operation.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH FRIDAY MORNING
ceasefire not holding: how can you trust terrorists:
(JerusalemPost/Friday)
Despite ceasefire, IAF intercepts UAV over northern Israeli towns
This comes despite the ceasefire agreement made between Israel and Hezbollah at the end of November
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 6, 2024 10:58Updated: DECEMBER 6, 2024 11:19
The IDF intercepted a suspicious UAV in Israel’s North on Friday morning, following sirens in Kfar Yuval, Kfar Szold and Ma’ayan Baruch. The details are being investigated.
This comes despite the ceasefire agreement made between Israel and Hezbollah at the end of November.
Hezbollah has already violated the ceasefire terms by launching rockets towards Mount Dov earlier this month. In return, the IDF begun striking terror targets in Lebanon.
A few days after the agreement, several Hezbollah suspects, some in vehicles, arrived in towns and villages in southern Lebanon. The IDF opened fire on them in response.
The IDF also said that it had deployed in southern Lebanon and was enforcing all violations of the ceasefire agreement.
Defense Minister Katz
In a recent visit to the northern border, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that if the ceasefire fails, the IDF will be more ready to strike non-Hezbollah Lebanese targets.
“If the ceasefire collapses – there will not be any more exemption to the state of Lebanon,” said Katz.He noted that Israel would never return to the days when it would ignore “minor” rocket fire or a small tent that Hezbollah erected before the war illegally a small number of meters into Israeli territory, adding, “If until now we distinguished between Lebanon and Hezbollah – this will not continue.”
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/
Top commander in Hamas security forces killed after 18,000 Palestinians evacuated
(TIMES OF ISRAEL)
IDF says top commander in Hamas internal security forces killed in south Gaza airstrike
More than 18,000 Palestinian civilians said evacuated from Beit Lahiya in the past day as troops raided shelters, detaining some 100 terror suspects
By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and Agencies5 December 2024, 9:54 pm
Smoke rises during an Israeli strike near a makeshift camp for displaced Palestinians, in the Khan Younis area in southern Gaza on December 4, 2024. (Bashar Taleb/AFP)
An Israeli strike on Wednesday night in the southern Gaza Strip killed several Hamas operatives, including a top commander in the terror group’s internal security forces, the military said on Thursday.
Palestinian media reported that some 20 people were killed in the strike in the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in the Khan Younis area, along with at least 19 others in other strikes across the Strip.
The IDF said it took numerous steps to mitigate civilian harm in the strike, including by using a precision munition, aerial surveillance, and other intelligence.
The military said that the Hamas commander, Osama Ghanim, was involved in “activity to suppress the citizens of Gaza and was responsible for detecting threats against Hamas from within the Strip.
“Ghanim held a key role in implementing Hamas’s brutal methods, which included conducting harsh civilian interrogations while violating human rights, suppressing residents suspected of opposing Hamas, and persecuting civilians from the LGBTQ+ community,” the IDF said.
Following the strike, the IDF said it had identified secondary blasts, indicating the presence of weapons in the area. Palestinian media published footage purportedly showing the strike.
Gaza medics said the 20 killed in the strike included women and children, though these accounts could not be independently verified.
Palestinians said the strike set several large tents ablaze and exploding cooking gas canisters and burning furniture fueled the fire. The area was strewn with charred clothing, mattresses, and other belongings among the twisted frames of burnt-out shelters, according to the accounts.
Some 2 million Palestinians of the 2.3 million Gazan population are residing in the Israeli-designated “humanitarian zone,” according to IDF assessments. The zone is located in the al-Mawasi area on the southern Strip’s coast, western neighborhoods of Khan Younis, and central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah.
Also Thursday, Army Radio reported that some 18,000 Palestinian civilians have been evacuated from Beit Lahiya in the past day. Before entering the town last month, the IDF estimated that only a few thousand Palestinians were residing there.
During the population’s evacuation from several shelters in the combat zone, troops detained around 100 suspected terror operatives who were taken to Israel for questioning, according to the report.
Palestinians, displaced from Beit Lahia, arrive in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on December 4, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)
The military has previously denied it is seeking to forcibly displace Palestinians in Gaza, saying that “the IDF’s warnings to members of the civilian population to temporarily distance themselves from areas expected to be exposed to intense warfare are made in accordance with the obligation under international law to take feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm by providing advance warnings prior to attacks. The IDF only operates in areas in which there is known to be a military presence, and is still at this time working to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure in various parts throughout the Gaza Strip.”
Troops killed some 20 terror operatives during fighting in Beit Lahiya in the past day, Army Radio reported, a relatively low figure compared to recent weeks, as the fighting in the area has become less intense.
The incidents came amid a renewed push to secure a hostage-ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened this week to punish those responsible if abductees kidnapped by the Palestinian terror group for over a year aren’t released before his inauguration.
An Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Thursday that a recent Egyptian hostage deal proposal passed on to Hamas offered an extended ceasefire during which hostages in the “humanitarian” category would be released.
Hamas has until now repeatedly refused agreements that do not include a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and a permanent end to the war, which was sparked when some 3,000 terrorists burst across the border into Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and seizing 251 hostages, mostly civilians, many amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.
IDF soldiers walk past a door covered with portraits of Israelis held hostage by terror groups in Gaza since Hamas’s October, 2023, massacre, on a street in west Jerusalem on December 5, 2024. (Hazem Bader/AFP)
It also came as Amnesty International accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza during its war with Hamas in a new report, saying it has sought to deliberately destroy Palestinians by mounting deadly attacks, demolishing vital infrastructure and preventing the delivery of food, medicine and other aid.
The report was swiftly denounced by Israel as based on falsehoods. It was also rejected by Amnesty Israel, the local branch of the Amnesty International organization, with some members accusing the authors of reaching a “predetermined conclusion.”
Meanwhile on Thursday, Hussam Abu Safiya, director of Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya in the north of the enclave, said a 16-year-old boy who used a wheelchair was killed and several people, including medics, were wounded by Israeli drone fire against the medical facility.
There was no comment from the IDF on Abu Safiya’s account. The health ministry said the three hospitals that are barely operational in northern Gaza have come under repeated attack since the IDF launched an offensive against Hamas in the Strip’s far northern towns of Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun in early September.
So far, the military estimates that it has killed at least 1,750 operatives during the operation, while another 1,300 have been detained, and around 90,000 civilians evacuated from the area.
Thirty-one IDF soldiers have been killed so far in the operation.
Elsewhere in Gaza, medics in Gaza City said an Israeli attack destroyed a house where an extended family had taken shelter and damaged two nearby homes, killing at least three people.
In Rafah, near the border with Egypt, medics said an Israeli strike killed three Palestinians on Thursday, and three others in a separate airstrike in Shejaia, in eastern Gaza City.
There was no immediate IDF comment on those strikes.
Troops of the 401st Armored Brigade operate in northern Gaza’s Jabalia, in a handout photo published by the military on December 4, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 44,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle as of November and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques.
Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip stands at 382. The toll includes a police officer killed in a hostage rescue mission and a Defense Ministry civilian contractor.
end
ISRAEL//WEST BANK/USA
this is good: Tom Cotton introduces a bill to replace the name West Bank with the historical names of Judea and Samaria
(JerusalemPost)
Senator Tom Cotton introduces bill to replace ‘West Bank’ with ‘Judea and Samaria’
“The Jewish people’s legal and historic rights to Judea and Samaria go back thousands of years,” Cotton noted.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 5, 2024 20:10Updated: DECEMBER 6, 2024 05:13
Senator Tom Cotton (R- Arkansas) introduced legislation to eliminate federal use of the term ‘West Bank,’ according to a statement his office released on Thursday.
“Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) today introduced the Retiring the Egregious Confusion Over the Genuine Name of Israel’s Zone of Influence by Necessitating Government-use of Judea and Samaria (RECOGNIZING Judea and Samaria) Act, legislation to require all official US documents and materials to use the historically accurate term ‘Judea and Samaria’ instead of the ‘West Bank,” the statement read.
“The Jewish people’s legal and historic rights to Judea and Samaria go back thousands of years. The US should stop using the politically charged term West Bank to refer to the biblical heartland of Israel,” Cotton added.
Congresswoman Tenney comments on legislation
According to the statement issued by Cotton’s office, Congresswoman Claudia Tenney noted, “The Israeli people have an undeniable and indisputable historical and legal claim over Judea and Samaria, and at this critical moment in history, the United States must reaffirm this.”
end
SYRIA/REBELS/SYRIAN ARMY/USA/SOUTH WEST SYRIA//FRIDAY
(JERUSALEM POST)
LAST NIGHT
HUGE STORY!! Syrian rebels capture the northern section of Homs as the push the Assad army out
(Times of Israel)
Syrian rebels capture northern Homs countryside, push Assad army out of Inhal – report
The rebels have captured the cities of Hama and Aleppo within a week, and even released prisoners from Hamas’s central prison.
By MATHILDA HELLERDECEMBER 6, 2024 10:22Updated: DECEMBER 6, 2024 11:0
The Syrian rebel forces have taken “complete and rapid control” of the northern countryside of Homs – Syria’s third largest city – Saudi news channel Al Arabiya/Al Hadath reported on Friday morning, citing sources.
This comes despite Assad’s army’s heavy shelling of the Rastan Bridge, which connects the cities of Hama and Homs.
Al Hadath added that the rebels’ advance came without any significant resistance, meaning they have successfully entered the towns of Talbiseh and Rastan, in the Homs countryside, and captured them.
KAN also reported on Friday morning that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s military has withdrawn from the city of Inhal, roughly 20 km from the country’s border with Israel.
Local armed groups were seen clashing with regime forces in Daraa, as well as in Nawa, which is about 13 km from Israel, the report said.
Daraa is situated very close to the Syrian-Jordanian border as well as the border with Israel.
The rebels have captured the cities of Hama and Aleppo within a week, and even released prisoners from Hamas’s central prison, KAN added.
Arab social media on Friday morning circulated footage of the rebels in Syria approaching Homs, the country’s third-largest city. A resident of Syria’s coastal area told Reuters that thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ rapid advance.
Concerns in Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has convened a discussion on the situation in Syria, following discussions between Defense Minister Israel Katz, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and senior IDF General Staff officials.
According to KAN, there is concern in Israel’s security establishment that the rebels will reach southern Syria, before arriving at the Israeli border in the Golan Heights.
Israel is also concerned that it does not see any significant resistance from Assad’s army, leading to fears that Syrian military weapons will fall into the hands of the rebels, who could also fall into the hands of Hezbollah.
On Thursday night, the IAF conducted strikes on Hezbollah’s weapon-smuggling routes near the Syrian regime’s crossings at the Syrian-Lebanese border. The IDF said it will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel.
END
ISRAEL SYRIA REBELS//Thursday night
(Times of ISRAEL)
TV report: Israel preparing for possibility that the Syrian army may collapse
Syrian anti-government fighters cheer as they ride a military vehicle through the streets of the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (Rami al SAYED / AFP)
Channel 12 reports that Israel is preparing for the possibility that the Syrian army may collapse in the face of rapidly advancing rebel forces.
The report says Israel has been surprised by the weakness of the Syrian army, as it continues to swiftly lose ground to the jihadist-led fighters.
The report adds that Israel has sent a strong warning to Iran not to send weaponry to Syria that could reach the hands of the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.
END
ISRAEL FRIDAY MORNING
Israel does not want HTS on their doorstep! Next move will be to bail out Assad
(JerusalemPost)
In unusual step, IDF announces aerial and ground reinforcements in Golan Heights
This follows a situational assessment carried out on Thursday and Friday by the IDF General Staff and Northern Command.
By MATHILDA HELLERDECEMBER 6, 2024 14:43Updated: DECEMBER 6, 2024 15:16
Due to the ongoing internal conflict in Syria, the IDF has announced it is reinforcing aerial and ground forces in the Golan Heights, which borders Syria.
This follows a situational assessment carried out on Thursday and Friday by the IDF General Staff and Northern Command.
IDF troops are deployed along the border and the IDF is monitoring developments.
It added in its statement on Friday afternoon that the army is prepared for all scenarios, both offensive and defensive.
The IDF said it will “not tolerate threats near the Israeli border.”
Security meetings
The political-security cabinet also announced that it will meet on both Saturday evening and Sunday, Israeli media reported on Friday.
Citing sources, Israeli media added that the cabinet will deal “mainly with Syria.”
Earlier on Friday, local armed groups were seen clashing with regime forces in Daraa, as well as in Nawa, which is about 13 km from Israel, the report said.
The rebels captured the cities of Hama and Aleppo within a week and even released prisoners from Hamas’s central prison.
end
This will weaken Hezbollah terribly
HEZBOLLAH/SYRIA
Hezbollah chief says group will aid Assad in confronting rebels
AFP/Times of Israel
By AFP
An image grab taken from Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV on December 5, 2024, shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location (Al-Manar / AFP)
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem says that his group, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, will be by Damascus’s side as Islamist-led rebels press a sweeping offensive.
In a televised address, Qassem denounces “terrorist groups” who want to “destroy Syria again… to bring down the regime” and “create chaos.”
“They will not be able to achieve their goals despite what they have done in past days, and we as Hezbollah will be by Syria’s side in thwarting the goals of this aggression as much as we can,” Qassem says.
He does not elaborate on what sort of support his group might provide, but Hezbollah suffered heavy losses in its war with Israel which ended with a fragile ceasefire on November 27, the day the Syrian rebels launched their offensive.
Qassem accuses the United States and Israel of supporting “takfiri” factions, a term the Shiite Muslim group uses to refer to jihadists or supporters of radical Sunni Islam.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF, Shin Bet eliminate Hamas air force head Nachal Al-Najar
Al-Najar had been responsible for planning the aerial infiltrations into Israel on October 7.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 6, 2024 16:31Updated: DECEMBER 6, 2024 16:48
The IDF and the Shin Bet eliminated the head of Hamas‘s air force in Gaza City, Nachal Al-Najar, on Tuesday, the military confirmed on Friday.
Al-Najar was head of both Hamas’s Aerial Unit in Gaza City and head of Hamas’ Aerial Defense Unit in Gaza.
Al-Najar had been responsible for planning the aerial infiltrations into Israel on October 7.
Since Hamas started the war, Al-Najar organized several attacks against IDF soldiers operating in central Gaza.
Al-Najar also promoted the use of explosive drone attacks against IDF troops.
October 7 massacre
On October 7, Hamas invaded southern Israel – breaking an existing ceasefire, and murdered some 1200 people. During the terror group’s invasion, terrorists abducted some 250 people. Over 100 hostages remain in Hamas captivity.
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA/SYRIA REBELS/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN
Israel warns Iran not to send ammunition to Syria with the crumbling Syrian defense forces
(JerusalemPost)
Israel warns Iran against sending help as Syrian army defenses crumble
Rebels ousted pro-government forces from Hama, bringing the insurgents a major new victory after a lightning advance across northern Syria.
By WALLA!, REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 5, 2024 19:38Updated: DECEMBER 5, 2024 21:15
Israel warned Iran not to send forces or transfer weapons to the Syrian forces, which could end up in Hezbollah’s possession, N12 reported on Thursday.
Israeli intelligence officials have identified an unexpectedly rapid collapse of the Syrian army’s defensive lines in battles with rebels in the northeast of the country over the past 24 hours, according to two senior Israeli officials.
Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi held a situation assessment on Thursday evening to discuss the developments in Syria.
“The IDF is monitoring events and preparing for any scenario, both offensive and defensive,” a statement from the assessment read. “The IDF will not allow threats near the Syria-Israel border and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of Israel.”
It is still unclear how Iran will act amid this rebellion. The IDF is on high alert for any outcome, including the collapse of Syria.
Syrian rebels
Syrian rebels ousted pro-government forces from Hama on Thursday, bringing the insurgents a major new victory after a lightning advance across northern Syria and dealing a new blow to President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies.
The Syrian army said it was redeploying outside the city “to preserve civilians lives and prevent urban combat” after what it called intense clashes.
Rebels said they had taken districts in the city’s northeast and had seized the central prison, freeing detainees.
end
SYRIA//opinion piece//Middle Eye
(zerohedge)
Why Syria Is More Relevant Today Than Before
Thursday, Dec 05, 2024 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Kamal Alam via Middle East Eye,
Amid the swift and stunning collapse of Aleppo following an assault led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is internationally sanctioned as a terrorist group, it is important to pause and recall that we have been here before. The advance by HTS and Turkish-backed rebels in Syria suggests that Turkey is playing its cards before US president-elect Donald Trump takes office, driven by its existential fear of a Kurdish enclave in northern Syria.
Turkey had been frustrated with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s repeated refusal to come to the negotiating table and meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, although both Syrian and Turkish defense and intelligence chiefs have met regularly in Russia. Al-Assad has been negotiating through his ministers while relying on the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia for the diplomatic push. Yet, while the finger of blame has been pointed at Turkey, the Israel factor cannot be discounted.
Just days before the fall of Aleppo, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened Syria against facilitating aid to Hezbollah – and it is no coincidence that this crisis began shortly after the Lebanon ceasefire was finalized.
It was almost timed perfectly to suggest that there has been some sort of nod to the armed groups in Idlib. Some Syrian opposition groups have acknowledged that Israel’s ceasefire helped them. Turkish-backed groups went so far as to thank Israel and further said they want good relations with Tel Aviv.
A key difference
But while many observers assert that Assad is on the ropes, his main backers, Russia and Iran, are already flexing their military and diplomatic muscle – and unlike the previous time Assad was in trouble in 2012, major players in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Iraq, are publicly backing Syria’s sovereignty. Iraq said it shall help Syria militarily as well.
With the exception of Qatar, all Arab ambassadors are back in Damascus – and since the fall of Aleppo, there has been a reaffirmation of support for Syria, marking a key difference from when the conflict was viewed as a civil war.
Indeed, as Aleppo was falling, the UAE and US were on the verge of potentially removing sanctions on Syria. Assad must now finally take their advice on rapprochement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before the situation spirals out of control.
There has been much talk of increased tensions in the occupied Golan Heights, with Israel violating the 1973 buffer zone as it ordered some army units to move out of the demarcated UN line since 1973, almost as if they anticipated trouble to create a buffer zone like in Lebanon along the Litani river.
At the same time, there has been a quiet flurry of diplomatic activity in recent months, from the Italians to the Saudis, placing Assad center-stage for a potential new shakeup in the Levant.
A number of EU countries, led by Italy, are calling for a major rethink of ties with Syria, spurred by the need to engage Assad for their own migration and security issues. Erdogan is almost begging Assad for a meeting, and with the UAE already increasing aid to Syria to help displaced Lebanese people, Damascus is set to regain a key role in the region after the dust settles in Beirut and Gaza.
Syria has carefully maintained a low profile during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. Whilst being a key member of the axis of resistance for the last 40 years, Syria has not been averse to talking or doing deals with Israel. It has at numerous times almost solved the issue of Golan, so it knows the balance.
US President Donald Trump’s new Arab envoy, Massad Boulos, is a political ally of Assad’s best friend in Lebanon, Suleiman Frangieh, who is one of the key candidates for the presidency.
Those who know the history of Lebanon and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) will know just how critical Syria is to the delicate balance of the region’s unorthodox relationships, which are not quite as black and white as they seem. Everything is not simply what faraway DC analysts label as “Shia versus Sunni”.
A recent report outlines how, in the lead-up to Iran’s 1979 revolution, Syria refused safe passage to Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to avoid further antagonizing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Prominent Syrian journalist Ibrahim Hamidi goes further in explaining the nuances of what Syria was trying to achieve in Lebanon and Palestine, as Syrian troops and allies sometimes clashed with Hezbollah to protect their own interests.
But the Israelis know that for any final peace with the Palestinian people, there must first be an understanding with Damascus. Similarly, Hamas’s recent U-turn on its relationship with Syria – alongside Israeli support for Syrian armed groups against Assad, and Tel Aviv’s now-famous contention that there would have been no Syrian uprising “if Assad made peace with us” – show how intricately linked the Palestinian file is to Syria’s endgame for Israel.
To be clear, Syria is under no illusions: half the country has been reduced to rubble. But its strength has never been an all-out powerful military or strategic arms advantage. It is what author David Lesch has called Syria’s ability to punch above its weight.
It is Syria’s ability to outlast its opponents and ride out the storm, rather than beating its opponents into submission. Assad, despite Israel’s frequent strikes on Iranian targets in Damascus, has not taken any retaliatory actions that could further raise Israel’s ire.
Pivot from Iran to Gulf
Similarly, according to Hamidi, who is one of the well-informed Syrian journalists, Syria has clamped down on the activities of Hezbollah and Iran-affiliated militias in the country, with Russian help – leading some analysts to question the viability of Iran-Syria ties.
While Iran is not quitting Syria, Damascus has other options, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia are helping Syria with the influx of Lebanese refugees, and the EU views strengthened ties with Damascus as a potential way to mitigate its own migration problems.
Perhaps the most important element of Assad’s pivotal role in the current mess is Erdogan’s eagerness to meet him. Assad has so far rejected these overtures, saying it would not be an easy path to reconciliation with Turkey. Erdogan, however, has been pleading with Russia to bring Syria to the table. This rejection appears to have prompted Turkish-backed groups to reshuffle the cards in northern Aleppo.
The big “so what” from all of this is that even in Syria’s diminished capacity, after more than a decade of war, almost every month we are seeing more ambassadors and global leaders return to Damascus.
They see Assad as the best option not just for Syria, but also to help both the Syrian and Lebanese refugees -who fled Lebanon during the recent war – and to resolve the deadlock of the Lebanese presidency. More than a year ago, France acquiesced to a plan to push Assad’s best friend, Frangieh, as the best candidate for president in Lebanon, against the wishes of other European allies.
Amid the reordering of Lebanon, one thing that has stood the test of time is Syria’s ability to remain relevant, despite all the damage it has incurred. While Syria depends on Russia and Iran militarily, its global diplomatic support has increased, from Italy, to Saudi Arabia, to China – and this will eventually decide the future of Syria, and the region.
END
/ISRAEL/SYRIA REBELS/SYRIA/
Israel’s defense chiefs discuss Syria fighting as rebel advance said to exceed expectations
Official says it’s in Jerusalem’s interest both sides fight, weaken each other, stresses Israel not getting involved; Hezbollah chief vows terror group to stand by Assad regime
By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and AFP5 December 2024, 10:32 pm
A Syrian anti-government fighter shoots against a large banner bearing a picture of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, hanging on the facade of a municipal building in the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (Rami al SAYED / AFP)
Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi held an assessment on developments in Syria as jihadist rebels rapidly advanced through parts of the country, the military said Thursday.
The meeting came as the rebels led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured the key central city of Hama, a little more than a week after they launched their offensive just as a ceasefire took hold between Israel and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The military assessment was held with the IDF General Staff Forum, the military’s top brass.
“The IDF is following events and is preparing for any scenario in attack and defense,” the military said.
“The IDF will not allow a threat near the Syrian-Israeli border and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel,” it added.
Amid the growing concern, two senior Israeli officials told the Axios news site that the collapse of regime defense lines happened faster than expected in the past 24 hours.
Syrian anti-government fighters cheer as they ride a military vehicle through the streets of the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (Rami al SAYED / AFP)
The city lies more than a third of the way from Aleppo to Damascus and its capture would open the road for a rebel advance on Homs, the main central city that functions as a crossroads connecting Syria’s most populous regions.
According to Axios, a security cabinet meeting set for later Thursday will mainly focus on the rapid advance of the rebels.
A US official who also spoke to the site said that Israel has expressed concern to Washington over both a potential radical Islamist takeover of Syria and the increased presence of Iranian forces in the country to back Assad.
Israel’s interest in the renewed fighting in Syria is “that they continue fighting one another,” an Israeli official told The Times of Israel.
“It’s entirely clear to us that one side is Salafi jihadists and the other side is Iran and Hezbollah,” the official continued. “We want them to weaken one another.”
The official stressed that Israel is not getting involved on either side. “We are prepared for any scenario, and we will act accordingly.”
Until last week, the war in Syria had been mostly dormant for years, but analysts have said the violence was bound to flare up as it was never truly resolved.
Anti-government fighters pose for a “selfie” picture on a Syrian regime military aircraft at the Kweyris military airfield in the eastern part of Aleppo province on December 3, 2024. (Rami al Sayed/AFP)
HTS is rooted in Syria’s Al-Qaeda branch.
The group has sought to moderate its image in recent years, but experts say it faces a challenge convincing Western governments it has fully renounced hardline jihadism.
Hezbollah chief vows to stand by Assad regime
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said Thursday that his Iran-backed terror group would be by Damascus’s side amid the offensive.
In a televised address, Qassem denounced “terrorist groups” who want to “destroy Syria again… to bring down the regime” and “create chaos.”
“They will not be able to achieve their goals despite what they have done in past days, and we as Hezbollah will be by Syria’s side in thwarting the goals of this aggression as much as we can,” Qassem said.
He did not elaborate on what sort of support his group might provide, but Hezbollah suffered heavy losses in the war it initiated with Israel which ended with a fragile ceasefire on November 27, the day the Syrian rebels launched their offensive.
An image grab taken from Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV on November 29, 2024, shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. (Al-Manar / AFP)
Hezbollah began its cross-border attacks in support of Hamas amid the Palestinian terror group’s war with Israel.
Qassem accused the United States and Israel of supporting “takfiri” factions, a term the Shiite Muslim group uses to refer to jihadists or supporters of radical Sunni Islam.
Hezbollah has openly backed Assad’s forces since 2013.
Hezbollah fighters helped Assad regain territory lost earlier in the civil war which broke out in 2011 after the repression of anti-government protests
end
ISRAEL AND SYRIA
getting worse in Syria: Israel is preparing for the possibility of a Syrian state collapse. They will help Assad as HTS is worse.
(ZEROHEDGE)
Israel Preparing For Possibility Of Syrian State Collapse
Thursday, Dec 05, 2024 – 09:20 PM
Israeli leaders and military officials are reportedly engaged in high level briefings over fast-moving events in Syria, which have seen Turkish-backed Islamists based in Idlib rapidly capture the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in less than a week.
Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi are carefully monitoring the situation across the border as the jihadists move south. “The IDF is following events and is preparing for any scenario in attack and defense,” the military said.
“The IDF will not allow a threat near the Syrian-Israeli border and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel,” it added. Of course, Israel has long directly contributed to destabilizing Syria through frequent airstrikes and at various times in past years supporting an anti-Assad insurgency.
There have been some unconfirmed reports that one option Israel would consider is creating a buffer zone inside southern Syria in the scenario of some kind of state collapse, and should Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) make it to Homs and eventually Damascus. Some analysts have accused Israel of covertly supporting HTS’ ongoing rampage across the northern half of the country.
According to one Israeli report:
Channel 12 reports that Israel is preparing for the possibility that the Syrian army may collapse in the face of rapidly advancing rebel forces.
The report says Israel has been surprised by the weakness of the Syrian army, as it continues to swiftly lose ground to the jihadist-led fighters. The report adds that Israel has sent a strong warning to Iran not to send weaponry to Syria that could reach the hands of the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.
And an unnamed US official has told Axios on Thurdsay at a moment the HTS insurgents are in control of the central city of Hama, “The Syrian military forces are not really fighting.”
The official added, “We don’t think the regime is in immediate danger, but this is the biggest challenge for the Assad regime in the last decade.”
The last 12 hours have seen reports emerge of a Syrian Army counteroffensive around Hama, with some military bases on the outskirts having been taken back by national forces.
How did the security situation in the Aleppo area unravel so quickly? How or why did the Syrian Army retreat so rapidly?
* * *
Below, a prominent and longtime Syrian commentator who goes by Bassem gives a quick bird’s eye view explanation…
External:
1) Russia got distracted with the war in Ukraine and resources diverted there.
2) Hamas idiotically went on suicide mission in October 2023 and dragged Hizbollah into the conflict indirectly and exhausted them.
3) Israel weakened Iran in Syria past few years.
Internal:
4) Assad did nothing to improve the lives of locals. Electricity for few hours a day, not enough fuel for daily matters, corruption, made the lives of Syrian business community hell (customs, etc), to name few.
5) all the while opposition was rebuilding, changing their message, training, even Ukrainian intelligence came in to support them with intelligence and drone technology.
* * *
We should add that US and European sanctions have devastated the Syrian economy and infrastructure, which have without doubt negatively impacted the Syrian Army’s general readiness and morale. And the US military has been occupying Syria’s oil and gas fields in the east for years at this point. Part of Washington’s purpose has remained to squeeze Damascus of energy resources, further weakening the Syrian state.
END
Houthis attack British merchant ship near Hodediah
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 6, 2024 17:34
A British merchant vessel was attacked by Houthi terrorists 105 nautical miles north of Yemen’s Hodediah on Friday, United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on X/Twitter.
END
Nahal Brigade clears Hamas cell, booby-trapped terror tunnel in Rafah
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 6, 2024 16:16Updated: DECEMBER 6, 2024 16:17
IDF soldiers in the Nahal Brigade dismantled a booby-trapped terror tunnel over the past few days, the IDF announced on Friday afternoon.
The soldiers, operating under the command of the Gaza Division 143, uncovered Hamas weapons and equipment, including mortar launchers, explosives, terrorist hideouts, weapons depots, and more.
The soldiers also led an attack on a nearby terror cell, which had been launching mortar shells toward IDF soldiers.
END
SYRIA FRIDAY/KURDS/SYRIAN GOVERNMENT FORCES
US-backed Syrian Kurds seize control of Syria’s Deir el-Zor, sources say
By REUTERSDECEMBER 6, 2024 16:38
The US-backed Syrian Kurds have seized control of the eastern Syrian city of Deir el-Zor, two security sources told Reuters on Friday.
END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON
Thousands flee as Syrian rebels advance on crossroads city of Homs
Leader of Islamist rebel group says he wants to ‘build Syria,’ bring refugees home from Lebanon and Europe, as insurgents press offensive toward key city linking Damascus to coast
By Reuters and ToI StaffToday, 12:40 pm
Residents take to the streets of Hama, to welcome anti government fighters after they took control of Syria’s west-central city on December 5, 2024. (Photo by Bakr Alkasem / AFP)
Thousands of people fled the central Syrian city of Homs overnight and into Friday morning, a war monitoring group and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against government forces further south.
The head of the Syrian faction leading the sweeping assault told CNN that his group — a former Al-Qaeda affiliate now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — aimed to “build Syria” and bring Syrian refugees back home from Lebanon and Europe.
It was Abu Mohammed Al-Julani’s first interview since his group began seizing territory from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces on November 27. Rebels have captured two major cities so far and are now thrusting toward Homs, a key crossroads city linking the capital Damascus to Assad’s coastal heartlands.
After years locked behind frozen front lines, the insurgents have burst out of their northwestern Idlib bastion to reel off the swiftest battlefield advance by either side since a street uprising against Assad mushroomed into civil war 13 years ago.
Assad regained control of most of Syria after his key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah group — came to his support. But all have recently been diverted by other crises, giving Syrian Sunni forces a window to fight back.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group that has been accused of inflating regime losses, said thousands of people had begun fleeing from Homs on Thursday night towards the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government.
A coastal resident said thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ rapid advance.
Wasim Marouh, a resident of Homs City who decided not to leave, said most of its main commercial streets were empty and only a few grocery shops were open as pro-government militia groups were roaming the streets.
Thousands of families had rushed out of the city overnight, and traffic jams held up cars for hours, he said.
Rebels led by HTS have sought to capitalize on their swift takeovers of Aleppo in the north and Hama in west-central Syria by pressing onwards to Homs, another 40 km (24 miles) south.
A rebel operations room urged Homs residents in an online post to rise up, saying: “Your time has come.”
Seizing Homs would cut off Damascus from the coast, a longtime redoubt of Assad’s minority Alawite sect and where his Russian allies have a naval base and air base.
Russian bombing overnight destroyed the Rustan bridge along the M5 highway, the main route to Homs, to prevent rebels using it to advance, a Syrian army officer told Reuters.
“There were at least eight strikes on the bridge,” he added. Government forces were bringing reinforcements to positions around Homs, he added.
Syrian anti-government fighters cheer as they ride a military vehicle through the streets of the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (Rami al Sayed/AFP)
Rebel leader speaks
Assad relied heavily on Russian and Iranian military backing during the most intense years of the civil war, helping him to claw back most territory and Syria’s largest cities before front lines hardened in 2020.
But Russia has been focused on its full-scale invasion of Ukraine since 2022. And many in the top leadership of the Hezbollah terror group, the most powerful Iran-aligned force, were killed by Israel over the past two months amid the fighting in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, pledged to stand by Syria in a television statement, though it remains unclear how this will be manifested.
HTS broke from al-Qaeda in 2016 and says it poses no threat to the West. It has spent years trying to moderate its image, presenting itself as a viable alternative to Assad.
Amid concerns that HTS would seek to impose strict Islamist rule in the new areas it controls, Julani told CNN that his group “may dissolve at any time. It’s not an end in itself but a means to perform one important task: confronting this regime.”
Julani said that through its offensive, HTS aims to return Syrian refugees from the civil war who are dispersed across the Middle East and Europe back to their homes.
A Syrian anti-government fighter shoots at a large banner bearing a picture of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, hanging on the facade of a municipal building in the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (Bakr Alkasem/AFP)
A week after HTS rebels seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city is slowly coming back to life, with a nighttime curfew lifted, bread returning to bakery shelves, police waving cars through intersections and internet coverage improved.
END
LATE THIS EVENING;
THIS IS BIG: CITY OF HOMS POISED TO FALL WITH THE HTS ADVANCE
(zerohedge)
Strategic Syrian City Of Homs Poised To Fall To Anti-Assad Advance
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 02:40 PM
Making their way rapidly south down the center of Syria, hordes of jihadist insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are already with a few miles of Homs and are set to besiege the city, after taking Aleppo and nearby Hama in just less than a week.
Thousands of Homs residents have been witnessed fleeing, as HTS has declared it ultimately wants to take Damascus, seat of the Assad government. Rastan and Talbiseh – in the governorate of Homs – are said to have fallen to the invaders backed by Turkey and based out of Idlib.
Homs is about 30 miles south of Hama, which only fell Thursday, but is much more strategically important given it links to Damascus and the coast along a key highway.
Samer AbdelJaber, head of emergency coordination at the UN’s World Food Programme, has been quoted in Al Jazeera saying that with some 280,000 people already displaced in a week, these numbers could soon swell to 1.5 million.
People from Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, have been fleeing toward coastal enclaves. It is especially religious minorities, many of them Christians, who are worried about an ethno-religious genocide, given the Al-Qaeda pedigree of the so-called ‘rebels’. Alawites too fear extermination by the radical Islamists.
Al Jazeera details, “A Syrian army officer told the Reuters news agency that Russian bombing overnight had destroyed the Rastan bridge along the key M5 highway linking Hama to Homs.” Towns in Homs governate which have been captured are located on the Homs side of the bridge, putting HTS within close striking distance of Homs.
By all accounts it’s not looking good amid unverified Friday reports that Syrian Army units have begun exiting Homs before even much heavy fighting ensues.
And in another worrying development, suggesting all manpower is being ordered to focus defense on Damascus and its environs, and the coast (such as Latakia) is that Syrian Army troops have “suddenly” exited Deir ez-Zor city and the whole area.
Israel has meanwhile bombed another Lebanon-Syria border crossing, specifically the Arida and Jousiyeh crossings, claiming that it is disrupting Hezbollah supply lines.
An HTS operations room has told the citizens of Homs, “Your time has come” – and has urged them to rise up against Assad forces.
Russian and Syrian warplanes have continued to pound their various positions, but without much resistance on the ground, HTS has been able to more forward at rapid pace.
Syrian forces possibly withdrawing to ultimately defend ‘fortress Damascus’…
Again, the area has many Syrian Christians – many of which have been the first to flee. Once source writes, “With the fall of Hama, new battleground will be in Homs. Valley of the Christians with its 200,000+ Christians may soon be the target of these battles, hosting many refugees also from Suqaylabiyah and Mhardeh. It’s not an overstatement to say the danger may exceed that of 2012-2014.”
AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL/ATTACK
Awful: Melbourne big conservative synagogue sustains severe fire damage in an anti semetic attack
(JerusalemPost)
Melbourne synagogue sustains severe damage in predawn attack by masked arsonists
No serious injuries reported among Adass Israel congregants, some of whom were in the synagogue praying; board member says ‘inside completely gutted,’ holy books destroyed
By AgenciesToday, 4:50 am
Footage posted to social media shows a fire blazing in the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne, early on December 6, 2024. (X; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law); Emergency forces seen at the scene. (ABC/AFP)
MELBOURNE, Australia — Arsonists extensively damaged a Melbourne synagogue on Friday in what Australia’s prime minister condemned as an antisemitic attack.
Victoria Police Detective Inspector Chris Murray said a witness who had come to Adass Israel Synagogue to pray saw two masked people spreading an accelerant inside the building at 4:10 a.m.
The synagogue was “engulfed in flames,” Murray added. “We believe it was deliberate. We believe it has been targeted. What we don’t know is why.”
About 60 firefighters and 17 fire trucks responded to the blaze, which Murray said caused extensive damage.
Investigators have yet to identify a motive, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese blamed antisemitism.
“This is an outrage. The violence and intimidation and destruction at a place of worship is something that we should never see in Australia,” Albanese told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
“I think an attack on a synagogue is an act of antisemitism by definition,” Albanese added.
The prime minister said he had “zero tolerance” for antisemitism, adding, “It has absolutely no place in Australia.”
No serious injuries were reported in the blaze, in the southeast Melbourne suburb of Ripponlea.
Police said Friday there is not enough evidence yet to suggest terrorism, but that they haven’t ruled it out as a possibility. They are working with counter-terrorism experts to track down the suspects, who have not yet been identified, 7NEWS Australia noted.
Police will increase patrols and do their utmost to catch the arsonists, who were wearing dark clothing, Murray said, adding that detectives would be looking at CCTV footage and interviewing any witnesses.
Melbourne police are also ramping up their presence around synagogues and Jewish schools, 7NEWS reported.
Bakery on ‘lockdown’
Hours after the synagogue attack, Victorian police removed a man wielding a hammer and abusing community members from a nearby Jewish bakery in Melbourne.
The incident took place at the Balaclava branch of Glick’s bakery, an iconic Jewish institution founded by Holocaust survivor Mendel Glick in 1960.
Posts on social media say the bakery was put on “lockdown.”
A Jewish community security organization said its personnel “assisted Glick’s staff and remained on site until police arrived.”
Jewish community members remove holy scrolls from the burnt Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne on December 6, 2024. (Tania Lee/AFP)
An hour later, hundreds would have been inside
Television images from the synagogue attack showed firefighters hosing down the embers through the blackened door of the single-story building, which has a grey concrete facade.
A board member of the synagogue, Benjamin Klein, said a few congregants were sitting and praying inside when the fire started, and “they heard loud banging.”
Liquid was poured inside the synagogue and it was set alight, he said, adding, “If this had happened an hour later, there would have been hundreds of people inside.”
The congregants “ran out the back of the synagogue. One man who ran out — his hand got burnt,” Klein said, adding the fire was “extensive” and that the synagogue’s “inside is completely gutted,” and that holy books and furniture were destroyed.
He vowed, however, that the community would “rebuild.”
Klein said the synagogue had increased security over the past 12 months amid safety concerns, without giving further details.
In 1995, the synagogue was damaged by a deliberately lit fire, with walls and Torah scrolls burned. Klein, who was a child at the time, said he remembered standing inside the damaged synagogue with his grandfather, a Holocaust survivor.
Firefighters gather at the scene of a fire at the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne on December 6, 2024. (Tania Lee/AFP)
Quadrupled attacks since October 7
Opposition Leader Petter Dutton, meanwhile, said the attack was predictable, amid a rise in antisemitism that he said Albanese had failed to stand up against since the Hamas terror group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel started the ongoing war in Gaza.
Antisemitic incidents in Australia have quadrupled since the Hamas attack, amid a global surge. Physical assaults on Jews in Australia spiked from 11 the previous year to 65.
“Why have we allowed, since October 7 of last year, months and months of violent protests to take place, the vilification of people of Jewish faith, the defacing of cars, and now the bombing of a synagogue?” Dutton said.
“It’s unacceptable, totally unacceptable in our country, and the prime minister needs to step up for our values, and he needs to do that not just here at home, but also in the United Nations and elsewhere around the world,” he said, appealing to Albanese to be a more straightforward ally of Israel in international forums.
Israel’s Ambassador to Australia Amir Maimon on Friday noted that dozens of anti-Israel activists had staged a three-hour protest outside The Great Synagogue in downtown Sydney on Wednesday, demanding sanctions against Israel. Worshippers were prevented from leaving the synagogue during the demonstration.
“We are talking about the values you expect Australians to follow, not my own values. And for me it’s clear that everyone should have the right to worship his own religion, own beliefs, as long as they also respect others,” Maimon said.
Shul built by Holocaust survivors
Jillian Segal, a Sydney lawyer and business executive who serves as the Australian government’s special envoy to combat antisemitism, said the Jewish community in Australia was “feeling evermore rattled by what is going on.”
“I’m very concerned. Here is one major escalation in terms of burning synagogues which has resonance to what happened during the Holocaust,” Segal said.
Victoria State Premier Jacinta Allan noted in a statement that the synagogue was “built by Holocaust survivors.”
Many of the synagogue’s original worshippers were post-World War II immigrants from Hungary.
Allan offered 100,000 Australian dollars ($64,300) to help repair the synagogue and said there would be an increased police presence in the area.
“Every available resource will be deployed to find these criminals who tried to tear a community apart,” Allan said.
“We stand against antisemitism now and forever,” she added.
Rabbi Gabi Kaltmann speaks to the media at the scene of a fire at Adass Israel Synagogue in the suburb of Ripponlea, Melbourne, Australia, December 6, 2024. (Con Chronis/AAP Image via AP)
Religious leader Rabbi Gabi Kaltmann described the arsonists as “thugs.”
“Tonight is the Sabbath. We must all go and find a sense of calmness, camaraderie and community by gathering for the sabbath tonight and praying together as one community,” Klatmann told reporters outside the synagogue.
Similar condemnation of the environment created by anti-Israel demonstrations came from the Zionist Federation of Australia, whose president Jeremy Leibler said in a statement Friday that the synagogue attack “appears to be another shocking escalation of the hate that we have seen brazenly displayed on the streets of Melbourne every week for over a year.
“No one should be surprised; this violent attack is a direct consequence of words turning into actions. Jew-hatred, left unchecked, endangers all Australians,” Leibler said.
“Enough is enough, this is a stain on our nation. It’s time for all levels of government to turn their words into actions to stamp out this Jew-hatred.”
Executive Council of Australian Jewry president Daniel Aghion said the community had been living in fear of such an incident since the Hamas onslaught last year.
“This for us is just evidence of that fear,” he told reporters.
Aghion also said the broader Australian community needed to condemn the arson attack.
“I’ve been getting phone calls this morning from the Hindu community, from other people, from good people who are prepared to stand up, and that’s my message this morning to Australia, to the good people of Australia,” Aghion said. “Don’t leave the Jewish people behind.”
Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
END
TURKEY/ISRAEL/USA/HTS ET AL. OPINION\
Erdogan’s Idlib Shock Shadows “Kursk”
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Alastair Crooke of Conflicts Forum
‘Doomsters’ is an occasional Russian expression used to categorise commentators that only see the ‘dark side to events’ (a vice quite prevalent during the Soviet era). Marat Khairullin, a highly respected Russian military analyst, says, “Today, a network of mercenary war bloggers has begun another round of moaning – this time about Syria, where apparently everything is lost for Russia”.
“Many see the events in Syria (and some add Georgia to the mix) as attempts to open additional fronts against our country. Perhaps that’s true. But in that case, it’s more appropriate to draw direct parallels with the reckless attack on Kursk, which left the Ukrainian armed forces in an almost hopeless position”.
Khairullin views the activation of this jihadist insurgency in Syria as a similarly ‘desperate’ act. The background is that the Syria-Russia-Iran coalition had — thorough the Astana negotiations — “cornered the remaining Syrian terrorists into a 6,000 sq. km enclave. Without delving into the details, it was a process reminiscent of the [Ukrainian] Minsk Agreements—both sides were utterly exhausted and thus agreed to a ceasefire. Importantly, all sides understood this was only a temporary truce; the contradictions were so profound that no one expected the conflict to end”.
Aleppo fell quickly these past days, as “one division of the Syrian National Army outright defected to the Islamists (read: Americans)”. The defection was a set up. Northern Aleppo was occupied by the Syrian National Army, fully controlled, armed and funded by Turkey, which dominates northern Aleppo.
The key, Khairullin says, is this crucial point: The land is flat criss-crossed by few roads:
“ … whomsoever controls the airspace controls the country. Last year, Russia formed a new aerial unit called the Special Air Corps, reportedly tailored for overseas operations. It consists of four aviation regiments, including a regiment of Su-35s. Currently, just two Su-35s are overseeing the entirety of Syria’s territory. Imagine the impact when 24 such aircraft are deployed. And Russia is fully capable of such a deployment”.
The second crucial point is that “Iran and Russia have drawn closer. At the start of the Syrian war, relations between the two were decidedly ‘neutral-hostile’. By late 2024 however, we now see a very strong alliance. Israel and the US, by violating the peace agreements through this Turkish insurrection, have provoked a renewed Iranian presence in Syria: Iran has begun to expand beyond its bases, redeploying additional forces into the country. This gives Assad and his allies a direct pretext to expel the American and Turkish proxies from Aleppo and Idlib. This isn’t speculation — it’s straightforward arithmetic”.
Syria, however, is a key component to the Israeli-American plan to remake the Middle East. Syria is both the supply-line for Hizbullah, as well as a hub of resistance to Israel’s “Greater Israel Project”. Now that the permanent ‘Anglo’ Security State unreservedly is backing Israel’s ambition to assert regional hegemony, the West has okayed Erdogan’s jihadist insurrection against President Assad. The aim is to split Iran from its allies, weaken Assad and to prepare for the putative Iran overthrow. Reportedly, the Turkish initiative was hurriedly brought forward, to fit with Israel’s ceasefire plan.
Khairullin’s point is that this Syria ‘ploy’ is akin to Ukraine’s “reckless attack on Kursk”, which diverted Ukrainian élite forces from the beleaguered Contact Line, and then marooned these forces in an almost hopeless position in Kursk. Instead of weakening Moscow (as intended), ‘Kursk’ inverted NATO’s original objective — by becoming opportunity to eradicate a major portion of Ukraine’s élite forces.
In Idlib, the Islamists (HTS), writes Khairullin, “had gained dominance – imposing a strict Wahhabi regime and infiltrating the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Both groups are patchwork organizations, with various factions fighting over money, border crossings, drugs, and smuggling. Essentially, it’s a cauldron—not very combat-effective but highly greedy”.
“Our Aerospace Forces obliterated all command centres (bunkers) of Tahrir al-Sham … and there is a strong likelihood that the entire leadership of the group has been decapitated”, notes Khairullin.
The Syrian Army’s main forces are advancing toward Aleppo; meanwhile, the Russian Air Force is bombing relentlessly; its Navy held a large drill off the Syria cost on 3 December with test launches of hypersonic and Kalibr cruise missiles; and Wagner and the Iraqi Hash’ad forces (Iraqi PM forces that are now part of the Iraqi army) are grouping on the ground in support of the Syrian Army.
Israeli Intelligence Chief’s lately have begun to scent problems with this ‘clever initiative’ that dovetails so exactly with Israel’s pause in the Lebanon fighting; With the supply route from Syria cut, Israel then — in theory — would be in a position to commence ‘Part Two’ of its attempted onslaught on Hizbullah.
But wait … Israeli Channel 12 reports the possibility that events in Syria are creating threats against Israel “where Israel would be required to act”.
Shades of ‘Kursk’ — rather than Hizbullah being weakened, Israel adds to its military commitments? Erdogan too, may have wrong-footed himself with this gamble. He has infuriated Moscow and Tehran, and is being flailed at home for siding with the US and America against the Palestinians. Further, he has drawn no Arab support (apart from a Qatari studied ambivalence).
Yes, Erdogan has cards to play in the relationship with Putin (control of naval access to the Black Sea, tourism and energy), but Russia is an ascendant great power and can afford to play some hardball in negotiations with a weakened Erdogan. Iran also has cards to play: ‘You, Erdogan, equipped the jihadists with Ukrainian drones; We can deliver the same to the Kurdish Workers Party’.
In the background is the bellicose language emerging from Team Trump, some of whom take harshly aggressive and hardline positions. These Israel-Firster and hawkish appointees by Trump likely emit their bluster as much to project an image of Trumpist strength to the American public, as to project a substantive project.
Trump is known for waving a big stick — and when he has played that tune for a little while, he slips in from behind, to complete a deal.
So we have had (from Trump): “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East”.
In the ‘Middle East’? To whom exactly is this addressed? And what does it suggest? (No mention of the thousands of Palestinian detainees and prisoners held by Israel)? Sounds more like Trump has sipped at the Israeli Kool-Aid: ‘All problems derive from Iran’; Israel is the innocent adrift a sea of regional malignity.
Trump’s disciples believe Trump will impose his will to achieve ‘quiet’ in the Middle East — and impose on Putin an end to the Ukraine War. They are convinced Trump can ‘cut a deal’ in the form of an offer to Putin that he cannot refuse. (For, ‘the current ‘owners of the world’ are never going to let China/Russia just waltz in, form BRICS and assume the position of World Hegemon’).
It is a return to the old formula of Zbig Brzezenski: Promise Putin normalisation with US (and Europe) and full sanctions relief, and pull Russia back into the western sphere — severed from a besieged China and Iran (with BRICS scattered to the wind under threat of sanctions).
It fails, however, to take account of how much the world has transitioned in the intervening years since ‘Trump One’. Bluster simply doesn’t carry the effect it used to: America isn’t what it was; nor is it obeyed as it once was.
Does Trump understand this accelerating global metamorphosis (as Will Schryver puts it), that “the only deal to be made with Russia is that of agreeing to the terms Russia dictates”:
“That’s what happens in the real world when you win a big war. And make no mistake, in this war, the Ukrainians have been slaughtered, the US/NATO has been humiliated, and the Russians are emerging from it indisputably triumphant, and more powerful on the world stage than they have been since the peak of Soviet strength decades ago”.
In other words, ‘big stick; quick deal’ may not answer to the new world of today.
Putin, in response to a questioner at Astana on 29 November, repeated an earlier warning: “Let me underscore the key point: the essence of our proposal [on Ukraine, given at the Russian Foreign Ministry] is not a temporary truce or ceasefire, as the West might prefer – to allow the Kiev regime to recover, rearm, and prepare for a new offensive. I repeat: we are not discussing freezing the conflict, but its definitive resolution”.
What Putin is saying — very politely — to the West is that: You still ‘don’t get it’. To seek a deal on Ukraine is to treat the symptom and to ignore a cure. The West has its policy back-to-front, in other words. Putin is clear: A definitive solution would be to delineate the frontier between Atlanticist security ‘interest’ and the security interests of the ‘World Island’ (in Mackinder’s terminology): i.e. to settle the security architecture between the ‘Heartland and the Rim-land’. Once that is done, Ukraine falls naturally into its place. It’s at the end of the agenda, not first.
One highly-regarded foreign policy sage, Professor Sergei Karaganov, explains (original only in Russian):
“Our [Russian] goal is to facilitate the U.S.’s incipient retreat, as peaceably as possible, from the position of global hegemon (which it can no longer afford) to the position of a normal great power. And to expel Europe from being any international actor. Let it stew in its own juices …The conclusion is obvious. We must end the current phase of direct military conflict with the West, but not the broader confrontation with it. Trump will offer to ease pressure on Russia (which he cannot guarantee) in exchange for Russia refraining from a close alliance with China. The Trump administration will propose a deal, alternating threats with promises … but the U.S. already understands that it cannot win. America will remain an unreliable partner for the foreseeable future. Fundamental normalization of our relations with the U.S. should not be expected in the coming decade. Trump’s hands are tied by the Russophobia fanned by liberals for years. The inertia of the Cold War is still quite strong, and so are anti-Russian feelings among most Trumpists”.
“The foremost goal of the current war should be the decisive defeat in Ukraine of Europe’s rising revanchism. This is a war to ward off World War III and to prevent the restoration of the Western yoke. The initial negotiating position is obvious, it has been stated and should not be changed: NATO’s return to its 1997 borders. Beyond that, various options are possible. Naturally, Trump will try to up the ante. So, we should act pre-emptively”, Professor Karaganov advises.
Recall too, that Trump is, at heart, a sworn disciple of the cult of American primacy; American greatness. “He will act accordingly … The Russians will dictate the terms of surrender in this [Ukraine] war because their strength affords them that privilege, and there is nothing the US and its impotent European vassals can do to alter that reality. That said, a decisive strategic defeat is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow for this second Trump administration. Hopefully they won’t opt to set the world on fire in a fit of humiliated madness”.
To receive Alastair Crooke’s articles regularly, please sign up to his substack page: https://conflictsforum.substack.com
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Lavrov warns Europe that a new cold war is turning red hot
(zerohedge)
Lavrov Warns Europe The New Cold War Is Turning ‘Hot’
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday warned that the new Cold War which has seen Moscow and NATO in a showdown over Ukraine for nearly the past three years is turning into a “hot” East-West conflict, according to the remarks in RIA Novosti.
Lavrov issued the comments before an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) council meeting in Malta. He said the West is behind a “reincarnation of the Cold War, only now with a much greater risk of a transition to a hot stage.”
He further lashed out at US hegemony in different sectors of the globe: “Military exercises are growing with native participation in the South China Sea, in the Taiwan Straits around the Korean Peninsula. Clearly, this is an attempt to destabilize the entire Eurasian continent,” the Russian top diplomat asserted.
Later he was asked by a media outlet about the new Cold War remarks, to which he responded: “All these fantasies are only exacerbating the situation, and show that the people who hold such ideas, prefer not to hear the very clear warnings that President Putin has repeatedly given.”
This reference to “fantasies” was in response to reports that Western countries such as Germany and France could be open to sending Western troops to Ukraine.
He has additionally laid blame for this new Cold War squarely on the West:
“All the previous years after the end of the Cold War, the West agreed on some right things, rhetorically praised these right things, but in reality grossly violated all the agreements and did everything to suppress the legitimate interests of Russia,” Lavrov said.
During the speech several foreign ministers from rival nations who have declared Moscow an enemy walked out of the room. This included the ministers of Ukraine, Czech Republic, and Poland.
Lavrov later in turn made a point of walking out of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s speech, as the Biden top envoy blasted Lavrov for a “tsunami of misinformation.”
US-Russia relations have reached near breaking point, but President-elect Trump, who will enter the White House again on Jan.20, is vowing a quick negotiated solution to the Ukraine war. This will require directly engaging President Putin, which some career military and State Dept. officials have been quick to criticize and reject.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ROBERT H
Escalation Dominance
It is usual to hear about Air dominance but in the context of escalation dominance it is about the use of weapon systems up the Ultimate which is nuclear. And as much as fools like Blinken may attempt to soil Russia by invoking use of Nuclear, it is unlikely to happen as it is not required.
Last month witnessed a battlefield test of ORESHNIK ( HAZELNUT ) AND THE COMPLETE DESTRUCTION of a major military complex in Ukraine. This was accomplished with simple kinetic energy and not with an explosive warhead. Everything there was turned to dust in a 1.5 mile square area along with everything destroyed to over 150 feet below the surface of a multi story complex that had its’ own bus stops. What is not being spoken of is the hundreds of experts killed from the West in developing missiles for Ukraine. It is why this area is restricted to all photo’s and video. Apparently explosions continued for several hours as underground munitions and explosives etc. exhausted themselves. It is also why in the area, locals heard French and English and Polish as no doubt people were there to assess the damage. It is called reduction to dust when you are hit with devices that reach 2000 degrees in temperature at Mach 10 ( 10x the speed of sound). And this is not all Russia has to show and demonstrate if called upon.
Today, Russia exhibits Escalation Dominance because it can escalate the conflict without reverting to the nuclear option with devices equally as destructive, if not more so. And it can do this step by step. The West has zero defense against such weapon systems. This is the harsh truth! Russia has the S500 which was developed to tackle such fearsome missiles and is developing a new non penetrable system as a shield against any future threats.
While I have written this several times, photo’s do exist of both North Korean and Chinese factories spitting out lesser range hypersonic missiles with reach, several generations behind current Russian technology but ahead of what the West has. No doubt soon Iran will join in and become a Regional Superpower. In case one is unaware, Iran is already assembling Su 35’s from Russia and learning both assembly and maintenance of such jets. Arguably American F-35’s may well be matched or out matched by such jets. Western hubris only goes so far when confronting battlefield realities. And escalation is a calculated strategy that has options outside of nuclear.
Perhaps, we should pay attention to why the Russian military head warned the Pentagon today. Sadly for the West, it’s’ technology is stuck in the 90’s. Conflict with a Peer or near Peer has never happened, nor does it have historical precedent. American military history is not what Europe or Russia endured to survive. Failed German understanding of Russia was carried over from WWII and influenced today’s military understanding of Russia, which is wrong. The same thing occurred when Scientists from Germany were spirited away to America to develop NASA. Yes, those early years of NASA development were ex Germans who were brought to America.
Exceptionalism is not a reality for America. Yes, America is a great country with great history but it is not a military power in today’s modern world of technology. No amount of hubris will fix that. It goes in concert with no State Craft to understand the soft power of diplomacy and how to integrate it with military power. Military bases are not the way to go. Nor is the thievery of natural resources of countries. Compare this with the many new trade routes occurring binding nations to prosperity over what the West is offering. Is it any wonder why the West is losing and feeling isolation as a result? The Business of America is business and the sooner America confronts this the sooner it will grow again in peace. War mongers are passé given technology realities of modern war. One cannot escape historical incompetence of past Administrations carving out the heart and soul of America for profit.
Energy can be spent on PR campaigns of freezing the Ukrainian conflict but this is momentary delusion. The war will continue unabated until security realities for the continent are addressed. And until then America will be forced to drain Europe for its’ own benefit to move forward until it finds itself learning its’ strength is business. And Europe will exhaust itself in funding a conflict that never should existed, coming face to face with the weapons sold by Ukranians to people in Western Europe who will find themselves fighting the existing system. This too is predictable which will serve to make Europe more vulnerable and unstable in the future.
end
Union State Summit: Putin and Lukashenko Sign Security Treaty, Agree Oreshnik Deployment in Belarus
This is very significant because ORESHNIK will be based in. Belarus in 2025. The only question is type of ORESHNIK. There is more than one version that was seen in the TEST in Ukraine.
This is game changer because it gives Belarus real teeth to respond to threats.
What if Russia chooses to give the same access to this weapon to Iran?
The global playing field is being altered because these weapon systems are more effective than the doomsday weapons of nukes.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
The Tulsi Gabbard Smears Are Unfounded, Unfair, and Unhelpful; was a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve (Iraq, Africa); Questioning Gabbard’s loyalty to America is not only low—the tactic is
also ineffective. No evidence has emerged that she has ever collaborated in any way with Russia’s intelligence agencies; no evidence she is colluding with a foreign power or disloyal to our country.
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 5 |
47 has tapped her to be the new DNI, Director of National Intelligence.
By Eli Lake
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘Gabbard should be pressed to explain two things: why she believed Ukraine was as much to blame for Russia for a war that Russia alone started, and her thoughts on al-Assad’s tyranny, which is now being challenged by the very Syrians he purports to rule. If she persuasively clarifies how her views have developed, then she should have the chance to serve. But if she can’t square her past positions, or she still defends them, then the Senate should reject her nomination.
Again, this is how the process is supposed to work. For those senators still concerned that Gabbard may soon oversee the U.S. intelligence community, it should also signal that Washington at the end of 2024 is not the same place as it was in 2017.
In other words, criticize Gabbard for her weakness and credulity when it comes to America’s adversaries, but don’t question the loyalty of a woman who has served honorably in uniform.’
By Eli Lake
By Eli Lake
Start here:
‘If one read only the legacy press and listened to Democrats, one would think that president-elect Donald Trump has just nominated a Kremlin stooge to oversee America’s intelligence community.
Trump’s choice to be his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman, has been tarred as “likely a Russian asset” by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL). The New York Times last week devoted a feature-length story to how Gabbard has become a “favorite of Russia’s state media.” Hillary Clinton once claimed Moscow was “grooming” her to run for president. Former congressman Adam Kinzinger, writing in The Bulwark, called her “outright disloyal.”
Gabbard certainly has very different views than Clinton and Kinzinger on foreign policy and the intelligence community. But her neutrality on Ukraine’s war for survival and her openness to diplomacy with despots also places her out of step with the mainstream of the Republican majority (not to mention most Democrats) in the Senate. She will have some explaining to do in her nomination hearing.
I happen to think Gabbard is far too credulous when it comes to some of the world’s most despicable tyrants. Her past remarks about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were horrendous. Consider her video message from February 27, 2022, three days after Russia unilaterally invaded Ukraine. “It’s time to put geopolitics aside and embrace the spirit of aloha, respect and love, for the Ukrainian people by coming to an agreement that Ukraine will be a neutral country.”
She uttered those words when Ukraine was at risk of extinguishment by the Russian army. There was no room for both sides at that moment. The Ukrainians were the victims; the Russians were the aggressors. And yet Gabbard believed Russia should be rewarded by preemptively closing off Ukraine’s prospect of joining NATO’s defensive alliance, even after the country had historically been invaded and starved by its powerful neighbor. No thanks.
That wasn’t the first time Gabbard displayed atrocious judgment in foreign policy. In 2017, four years after Syria’s tyrant Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons on his opposition, Gabbard visited him in Damascus to pursue dialogue. There’s nothing wrong with meeting an adversary in war. But as a member of Congress, she was conferring legitimacy on a regime that the first Trump administration was trying to isolate. That visit is likely to cause even more problems for her after rebel forces swept through the west and northwest of Syria over the weekend, capturing the ancient city of Aleppo—and proving once again that al-Assad does not have the support of his people.
Indeed, Gabbard’s opposition to conflict at all costs has, in the past, put her on the wrong side of some of Trump’s best foreign policy decisions. In 2020, after Trump ordered the strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s terror master general, Gabbard said the operation had “no justification whatsoever.” Soleimani had targeted American troops in Iraq for years by that point. In the run-up to the strike, Soleimani’s minions had attempted to overrun the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Other Iranian proxies in the months before had attacked international shipping lanes and launched strikes against Saudi oil facilities.
That said, there is no evidence that she came to these views because she is colluding with a foreign power or disloyal to our country. The woman is a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve, and she served in Iraq and the Horn of Africa.
Gabbard speaks with Trump during a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, on October 22, 2024. (Jabin Botsford via Getty Images)
Questioning Gabbard’s loyalty to America is not only low—the tactic is also ineffective. This innuendo campaign comes on the eve of Trump’s second term. Americans lived through his first term when MSNBC broadcast false allegations from a junk dossier to its viewers as if it were ironclad proof of presidential treason. It turned out the infamous pee tape wasn’t real and neither was the elaborate theory of Trump-Russia collusion. Meanwhile, Trump pursued an often hawkish line on Russia, such as selling arms to Ukraine when his predecessor did not.
In this light, the howls of “traitor” come off as sound and fury, signifying nothing. It’s just more Russia, Russia, Russia, as Kellyanne Conway once said. Even The New York Times, in its story about the alignment between Gabbard’s foreign policy views and Moscow, acknowledged, “No evidence has emerged that she has ever collaborated in any way with Russia’s intelligence agencies.”
So it’s both unsavory and ineffective to imply that Gabbard is a Russian asset. And unlike some of Trump’s other controversial cabinet picks, GOP insiders tell me that senators would like to find a reason to approve Gabbard’s nomination. As one Republican Senate staffer told The Free Press, “No one is looking to get into a fight right now over this; there are too many other bigger fish to fry.”
The signals from Mar-a-Lago suggest that they are looking for Gabbard to play up her commitment to curbing the kinds of abuses in the intelligence community that plagued the first Trump administration.
“Just as the Democrats and the Washington elite see President Trump as a threat to their unchecked power, they see Congresswoman Lt. Col. Tulsi Gabbard as a threat as well,” said Trump transition spokeswoman Alexa Henning. “As DNI director she will champion our constitutional rights and put an end to using intelligence agencies as weapons against the American people.”
That does not sound like a nominee willing to double down on the spirit of aloha when it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Nonetheless, in order to be confirmed, the former Hawaii lawmaker will have to show that some of her positions have evolved. That is the normal way confirmation hearings work. A nominee’s record is reviewed and challenged, and the nominee then offers to revise and extend their remarks.
Gabbard should be pressed to explain two things: why she believed Ukraine was as much to blame for Russia for a war that Russia alone started, and her thoughts on al-Assad’s tyranny, which is now being challenged by the very Syrians he purports to rule. If she persuasively clarifies how her views have developed, then she should have the chance to serve. But if she can’t square her past positions, or she still defends them, then the Senate should reject her nomination.
Again, this is how the process is supposed to work. For those senators still concerned that Gabbard may soon oversee the U.S. intelligence community, it should also signal that Washington at the end of 2024 is not the same place as it was in 2017. In other words, criticize Gabbard for her weakness and credulity when it comes to America’s adversaries, but don’t question the loyalty of a woman who has served honorably in uniform.’
Excellent piece.
end
Muhammad top UK baby name…hhhhmmm…I wonder what it is in America now and what it WILL be soon if we don’t get our immigration shit in order; will it too be Muhammed or Santiago? David? Ted Kennedy
did this in 1965 and Lyndon Johnson signed this madness into law…INA 1965…be warned, other ethnic groups outbreeding Americans, our replacement rate is 2.3 yet birthrate 1.6; e.g. others it is 6
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 6 |
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
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| Vaccine Scientist Issues Ominous Warning: New Pandemics Will ‘Come Crashing Down’ on Trump ‘On January 21’Pharmaceutical industry vaccine scientist Dr. Peter Hotez has ominously sent a bone-chilling warning to President Donald Trump and the American people.READ MORE |
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| Biden Considering ‘Preemptive Pardons’ for Fauci, Adam Schiff, Liz CheneyLame-duck President Joe Biden is reportedly considering “preemptive pardons” for some of America’s most controversial government figures.READ MORE |
| Chicago Citizens Call on Trump to Arrest Democrat Mayor for Aiding Illegal AliensChicago residents are voicing their outrage as progressive Democrat Mayor Brandon Johnson continues to prioritize illegal aliens over them.READ MORE |
| Federal Judge Delays Pro-Life Activists’ Sentencing Following 2024 Election OutcomeA federal judge has postponed the sentencing of seven pro-life activists who were charged by lame-duck President Joe Biden’s Department of Justice (DOJ).READ MORE |
| Fox News Medical Expert Kelly Powers Dies of Cancer at 45 After Suffering Heart Attack Live On AirFox News viewers are mourning the tragic death of Dr. Kelly Powers, who served as the network’s medical expert.READ MORE |
| Trump’s Lawyers File Motion to Dismiss Alvin Bragg’s ‘Hush Money’ CaseLawyers for President Donald Trump have filed their motion to dismiss Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s so-called “hush money” case.READ MORE |
| LPGA Tour Bans ‘Players Assigned Male at Birth’ from All Female Golf EventsThe LPGA Tour has announced that men will be banned from competing in all female golf events.READ MORE |
| Video Shows Biden Falling Asleep During Africa SummitLame-duck President Joe Biden appeared to fall asleep during the Lobito Corridor Trans-Africa summit.READ MORE |
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| Jemele Hill: Kamala Harris Is ‘Overqualified’ for Presidency, Only Lost Election Due to ‘Racism and Misogyny’Former ESPN host Jemele Hill has claimed that failed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris is “overqualified” for the presidency.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
Chevron Cuts Permian Capex for 2025
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 11:00 AM
By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com
Chevron has reduced the amount of capital expenditure it will allocate for its operations in the Permian Basin next year, the company said in an update.
The company said it planned to spend between $4.5 billion and $5 billion on production in the Permian, “as production growth is reduced in favor of free cash flow.” Total upstream spending for 2025 is planned at $13 billion, with the company’s total capex budget set in a range of between $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion.
This would be a decline from this year’s capex budget of $15.5 billion to $16.5 billion. When the affiliate capex budget is included, the 2025 budget represents a $2-billion reduction on the 2024 number, Chevron reported.
The company remains focused on its home operations, with the remainder of its U.S. budget to be split between operations in the DJ Basin and the Gulf of Mexico. In the latter area, Chevron said it expected daily production of some 300,000 barrels from its deepwater wells by 2026.
Chevron also said in its update that it will book charges of between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter, most of it attributable to restructuring costs related to plans for achieving structural cost cuts of $2 billion to $3 billion by 2026.
“We continue to invest in high-return, lower-carbon projects that position the company to deliver free cash flow growth,” chief executive Mike Wirth said, highlighting the priorities of the company.
He also pointed out that “The 2025 capital budget along with our announced structural cost reductions demonstrate our commitment to cost and capital discipline,” hitting the second key point for shareholders in the energy industry.
The update could be seen as the latest piece of evidence that despite President-elect Trump’s plans for a return to a “Drill, baby, drill” mentality in the oil and gas industry, companies are wary of it and remain focused on cash and shareholder returns above production growth.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRICS
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0582 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 150.42 UP 0.305 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2769 UP .0009
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4057 UP 0.0038 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 38 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 35.22 PTS OR 1.05%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 305.41 OR 1.26%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.63%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 305.41 PTS OR 1.26%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 35.22 PTS OR 1.05%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.63%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 304.41 PTS OR 1.26%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2638.15
silver:$31.17
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.79 UP 10 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.502% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.043% DOWN 2 AND 3/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.752 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.188 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.0975 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0552 DOWN .0034 OR 34 basis points
USA/Japan: 150.04 DOWN 0.083 OR YEN IS UP 8 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.3075 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0136 OR 136 BASIS pts to 1.4154
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.2822(ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2812)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.80 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.043
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.153% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.3075 DOWN 6 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.091 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2637.15
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.07
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 40.77 PTS OR 0.49%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 25.91 OR 0.13%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 96.34 PTS OR 1.31%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 46.70 OR 0.39%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 123.22 OR 10.36%
WTI Oil price 67,12 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 70.98 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 100.30 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 70/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.0975 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3075 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.019 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.845 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0559 DOWN 0.0027 OR 27 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2739 DOWN 0.0020 OR 20 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2755 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.043
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.98 DOWN 0.137 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4152 UP 0.01330 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 133 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 67.13
Brent OIL: 71.02
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.155
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS PTS to 4.337%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 5 PTS AT 4.102
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.005 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.820 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106,,00 UP 30 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.78 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 101.54 UP 0 AND 45/100 roubles
GOLD 2,635.55 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.00 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 123.19 PTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ UP 198.03 PTS OR 0.82%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.83 DOWN .71 PTS OR 5.24%
GLD: $242.95 UP 0.09 OR 0.037%
SLV/ $28.25 DOWN 0.31 OR 1.09%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: UP 15.83 PTS OR 0.062%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING
Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bonds Bid On ‘Bad’ Data; Rate-Cut Odds Surge On Week
MORNING TRADING//JOBS REPORT
TOTALLY PHONY
November Jobs Surge Above Estimates As Wage Growth Comes In Hot, Umemployment Rises
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 08:43 AM
After the October hurricane-driven debacle which sent last month’s payrolls print to the lowest in years, at just 12K, traders were expecting a solid bounce today, with many whispering a print that would come above the consensus estimate of 220K… and they were right: moments ago the BLS reported that in November, payrolls growth surged to 227K, the second highest print since March (after the upward September revision).
Unlike previous month, most of which had all seen downward revision, the previous two months were revised higher, September was revised up by 32,000, from +223,000 to +255,000, and the change for October was revised up by 24,000, from +12,000 to +36,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 56,000 higher than previously reported.
The rebound reflects swings related to the end of the Boeing strike and the hurricanes that skewed the October data; hiring was led by health care and social assistance, as well as leisure and hospitality and government (see below)
Those looking for a clear indication whether the Fed will keep cutting or halt its easing cycle in two weeks, will have to wait because the rest of the jobs report was mixed: on one hand, unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and above the 4.1% estimate (with Black unemployment at 6.4% rising in November, while the jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.9 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (5.3 percent) showed little or no change over the month)…
…but hourly earnings also rose, rising 0.4% MoM in November, above the 0.3% estimate, with annual wage growth flat at 4.0%, also above the 3.9% estimate, both indicating that wage growth pressures remain.
We should note that while the Establishment report gain of 227K payrolls was solid, the Household survey indicated a much bigger weakness, with the number of people employed tumbling by 355K to 161.141 million.
Tied to that, both the full-time and part-time series showed a notable drop (since these track the Household Survey), with full-time jobs dropping by 111K and part-time jobs down by 268K.
Taking a closer look at the report we find the following:
- The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.7 million in November. This measure is up from 1.2 million a year earlier. In November, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.2 percent of all unemployed people.
- The labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, changed little in November and has remained in a narrow range of 62.5 percent to 62.7 percent since December 2023. The employment-population ratio, at 59.8 percent, also changed little over the month but is down by 0.6 percentage point over the year.
- The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.5 million in November. This measure is up from 4.0 million a year earlier.
- The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.5 million, changed little in November. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
- Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was unchanged in November. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
- The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 396,000 in November.
Taking a look at jobs by sector, we find that employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Employment increased in transportation equipment manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers who were on strike. Despite the onset of the Holiday season, retail trade cut 28,000 jobs the most jobs in a year, while durable goods manufacturing jobs jumped by 26,000 upon the conclusion of the Boeing strike. Yet while overall manufacturing employment rose due to an extra 32,000 transportation equipment roles, the sector was otherwise mixed; the semiconductor and electronic component sector lost 3,500 jobs. Here are some more details:
- Health care added 54,000 jobs in November, in line with the average monthly gain of 59,000 over the prior 12 months. In November, ambulatory health care services added 22,000 jobs, led by a gain of 16,000 in home health care services. Employment also increased in hospitals (+19,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+12,000).
- Employment in leisure and hospitality trended up in November (+53,000), following little change in the prior month (+2,000). Over the month, employment trended up in food services and drinking places (+29,000). Leisure and hospitality had added an average of 21,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
- In November, government employment continued to trend up (+33,000), in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+41,000). Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+20,000). However, it is notable that there was a 2,000 drop in Federal employees in the month, the biggest drop in two years.
- Employment increased by 32,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing in November, reflecting the return of workers who were on strike.
- Employment in social assistance edged up by 19,000 in November, similar to the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, individual and family services added 17,000 jobs.
- Retail trade lost 28,000 jobs in November, after showing little net employment change over the prior 12 months. In November, employment declined in general merchandise retailers (-15,000), while electronics and appliance retailers added jobs (+4,000).
And visually:
Finally, for those trying to figure out what all this means, here is perhaps the most important chart: after hitting a record high in August, the number of illegal alien workers has tumbled (even as native-born workers remain flat). This suggests that wage growth is about to surge as employers will now be “forced” to hire domestic employees, who unlike their Guatemalan peers, have the ability to negotiate higher wages.
.
END
II USA DATA
Trump Victory Sparks Biggest Jump In Consumer Sentiment Since Clinton In 1992
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 10:10 AM
After jumping in November (post-election, led by Republicans’ confidence), UMich consumer sentiment was expected to extend its gains in preliminary December data released today and it did, but the picture was mixed.
Current Conditions exploded higher (from 63.9 to 77.7, well above consensus) while Expectations dropped from 76.9 to 71.6 (missing consensus) with the headline sentiment rising to 74.0 from 71.8 (its highest since April)…
Source: Bloomberg
This was the biggest jump in Current Conditions since Nov 1992 – when Bill Clinton was elected…
Source: Bloomberg
Along with that surge in confidence came a jump in inflation expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
As UMich’s Joanne Hsu comments: “The expectations index continued the post-election re-calibration that began last month, climbing for Republicans and declining for Democrats in December. Independents were, as usual, in the middle between the two major parties, with readings close to the national average. This adjustment process is consistent with a response to actual underlying changes in expectations for the national economy, and not merely an expression of partisanship.”
For example, throughout this month’s interviews, Democrats voiced concerns that anticipated policy changes, particularly tariff hikes, would lead to a resurgence in inflation.
Republicans disagreed; they expect the next president will usher in an immense slowdown in inflation.
As such, national measures of sentiment and expectations continue to reflect the collective economic experiences and observations of the American population as a whole.
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
“The Market Is Pricing A December Cut”: Wall Street Reacts To Today’s Solid Jobs Report
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 10:20 AM
After today’s solid jobs report, which showed hotter than expected payrolls and wage growth, and which hints at much more wage growth now that “foreign born” (i.e., illegal workers) are tumbling forcing employers to hire much higher paid domestic laborers, the market is still convinced that the Fed still remains on track to cut rates in two weeks, even though core CPI is once again on the rise, at 3.3% and soon much higher, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has the US economy growing also 3.3% this quarter.
Do Wall Street pundits agree? Below we have compiled a snapshot of some f the kneejerk reactions by traders, analysts and strategists.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management:
“There are cracks in the labor market that require Fed attention. At the same time, with average earnings growth still stubborn, the Fed has to proceed down its rates path with significant caution and care. A December cut is in the offing but, come early 2025, the Fed is likely to slow its cutting pace to every other meeting. What started out as a Fed pivot has evolved into a central bank swerve.”
Anna Wong, head of Bloomberg Economics:
“Job growth was brisk in November, as hiring activity rebounded from an October print weakened by hurricanes and strikes — but the rebound is short of what it should have been if October’s weakness were all due to such temporary factors. For example, manufacturing job growth would still be in negative territory if not for a one-off boost from the resolution of the Boeing strike in early November. Indeed, the uptick in the unemployment rate – just 0.004 percentage point shy of rounding up to 4.3% — supports our contention that cyclical sectors are showing underlying weakness. Once all revisions to the data are in, we think they’ll show the true underlying pace of monthly job creation currently is barely positive — and well below what’s needed to stabilize the unemployment rate. That means the jobless rate will likely continue to climb. The November jobs report doesn’t seal the deal for a rate cut in December, but it also doesn’t take it off the table. We think the November CPI report (due out Dec. 11) will be critical for the Fed’s decision this month.”
Mike Zigmont, head of trading and research at Harvest Volatility Management:
“Small caps have underperformed for a long time until recently. My guess is that investors view today’s NFP as bullish and they are buying the small caps more than large because they think the outperformance will continue. If economy stays healthy and rates come down a little….it’s probably better for small caps.”
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics:
“With earnings rising 4% at a year-on-year pace, there’s plenty of income to keep powering consumer spending. So retail sales should be good. Brisk consumer spending is what is making the economy grow so fast right now.”
Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings:
“The underlying growth in labor demand remains solid despite the small uptick in the unemployment rate – payrolls have grown by 172,000 per month over the last three months, probably closer to 200,000 if we allow for the October distortions. At the same time wage growth looks to have bottomed out at 4% in year-on-year terms and has crept up to 4.4% on a three-month annualized basis. That won’t stop the Fed from cutting rates again later this month but it will give them pause for thought – 4.4% wage growth doesn’t really work with 2% price inflation.”
Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence:
“Overall, the data isn’t quite strong enough to shift the odds of a December rate move by the Fed, and the Treasury yield knee-jerk rally reflects the market fearing even a better payrolls report,” BI’s Jersey says. The slightly higher unemployment rate will give the Fed comfort. Yet on this trend, we suspect a December cut may be followed by a January pause…. The market is basically pricing for a December cut, but then the Fed to skip January, cut in March and skip May, with a final cut in either June or July. Given the incoming economic data, we don’t think this is unrealistic at this point — but we must remember this is a major shift from the cut at every 2025 meeting that was priced just three months ago.”
Tom Porcelli, PGIM:
“There are some cracks in the labor backdrop but the floor’s not falling out from beneath us here.”
Mohamed El-Erian:
“The fact that the unemployment rate went back up means that the Fed will be comfortable cutting by 25 basis points and that the market will increase the probability of this happening. On the policy front, this did not complicate what would have been a messy situation.”
Source: Bloomberg
end
Commercial real estate market crisis is getting worse
(American Institute for Economic Research)
The Commercial Mortgage Crisis Deepens
Friday, Dec 06, 2024 – 03:40 PM
Authored by Peter Earle via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),
The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, significantly outrunning the 6.3-point rise seen during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago.
The office real estate sector has been grappling with a severe downturn for several years now, but are accelerating recently as they are driven by persistently high vacancy rates and declining rents. Property values, particularly for older office buildings, have plummeted, with many losing 50 to 70 percent of their market value and in some cases becoming effectively worthless. Those conditions have left real estate portfolio managers and building owners unable to borrow, refinance or sell properties, contributing to rising delinquencies and foreclosures. (Mortgages become effectively delinquent when payments are missed beyond a standard 30-day grace period.)
Three key factors contributed to the widespread impairment of office properties and, in turn, securitized mortgage products:
- malinvestment due to artificially low interest rates and excessive credit expansion,
- zoning restrictions hampering property repurposing,
- and the widespread adoption of remote work following COVID-19 lockdowns.
During the 2020–2022 period of near-zero benchmark rates (and in real terms, negative interest rates), lenders underwrote commercial real estate loans with minimal debt service coverage ratios, frequently projecting property income to just cover interest payments. Those assumptions faltered as rates rose, exposing the speculative nature of many of the core suppositions undergirding those loans. Adding to that, rigid zoning and building regulations (in addition to obstinance among owners, in some cases) have slowed the transition of obsolete office spaces to other uses, such as residential conversions. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated a long-term shift toward remote work, reducing demand for traditional office spaces.
Loans can be removed from delinquency lists through resumed payments, foreclosure sales (typically at steep losses to investors), or loan restructuring under the so-called “extend-and-pretend“ strategy, which defers foreclosures into future years. This approach has been widely employed, pushing questions about the financial health of some real estate investment entities to 2025 and beyond.
Among commercial real estate (CRE) segments, office properties are the most troubled, with delinquency rates significantly outpacing lodging (6.9 percent), retail (6.6 percent), and multifamily housing (4.2 percent). Of particular note, the industrial sector remains robust with a delinquency rate of just 0.3 percent. However, the distress is not confined to office properties. CRE-CLO (commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation) bonds, which include short-term floating-rate loans across various property types, are seeing distress rates hit record highs. Office loans account for nearly one in five distressed CRE-CLO loans, but multifamily loans are also at risk, with distress rates reaching 16.4 percent in Q3 2024. The weakness stems from the collision of soaring financing costs and underperforming properties. Indeed, as Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) predicts, artificially low interest rates stimulated aggressive underwriting during the pandemic, a large portion of which has proven wholly unsustainable.
Efforts to convert office buildings into residential spaces are increasing but remain limited by structural and economic constraints. Many office towers are unsuitable for conversion due to their large floor plates or prohibitively high retrofitting costs which often exceed the cost of demolition and rebuilding. In 2024, 73 office-to-residential conversions were completed, with an additional 30 underway. Despite plans to increase the pace in 2025, the cumulative impact remains minimal, addressing just 7.9 percent of the 902 million square feet of vacant office space nationwide.
The “survive till 2025” mindset dominates market sentiment, with landlords hoping for substantial Federal Reserve rate cuts to alleviate financial pressures. However, while the Fed has reduced rates, they remain between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) at 4.57 percent. Moreover, concerns regarding $36 trillion in U.S. government debt, tariff threats, and signs of slowing disinflation have pushed long-term Treasury yields back to pre-cut levels, undermining hopes for refinancing relief. Those conditions have left many properties — especially those tied to bridge loans — on the brink of financial distress.
The financial risks associated with office mortgage losses are widely dispersed among global investors, thus diminishing the potential threat to the U.S. banking system. Office mortgages are held by a vast array of investors, including CMBS and CRE-CLO investors, insurance firms, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), private equity firms, and international financial institutions. While U.S. banks have some exposure and have already recognized significant losses, no major collapses have occurred. Smaller banks with geographically and/or commercially concentrated mortgage portfolios remain at heightened risk, and escalating stress could precipitate systemic consequences.
The commercial real estate market’s troubles are not a temporary phenomenon but a structural crisis rooted in monetary policy-induced overbuilding, regulatory barriers, and a permanent shift in work patterns vastly accelerated by pandemic lockdowns. Vulture investors have emerged, but sparingly. The sector faces profound challenges which will unfold both against and in response to the forward trajectory of monetary policy, the consequent shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and broad macroeconomic developments. Hopefully the stage is not being set for the next in an increasingly annualized procession of crises.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING LAVROV
Full Lavrov-Tucker Interview: US & Russia Need To Cooperate ‘For The Sake Of The Universe’
Thursday, Dec 05, 2024 – 10:10 PM
Tucker Carlson first unveiled Wednesday that he had traveled to Moscow to interview Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the full interview has subsequently been published Thursday night.
Among the most important messages conveyed was directed by Lavrov toward Washington and its allies, which “must understand that we would be ready to use any means not to allow them to succeed in what they call strategic defeat of Russia.”
And referencing Russia’s recent use of its Oreshnik hypersonic missile, Lavrov expressed hope that Kiev’s backers took “seriously” the new weapon, for which Russia says there is no defense, as Moscow remains ready to use “any means” to defend itself. “We are sending signals and we hope that the last one, a couple of weeks ago, the signal with the new weapons system called Oreshnik… was taken seriously,” Lavrov emphasized. Full interview:
The very opening question posed by Tucker got straight to the main point which is surely on the minds of many viewers:
Tucker Carlson: Minister Lavrov, thank you for doing this. Do you believe the United States and Russia are at war with each other right now?
Sergey Lavrov: I wouldn’t say so. And in any case, this is not what we want. We would like to have normal relations with all our neighbors, of course, but generally with all countries especially with the great country like the United States. And President Vladimir Putin repeatedly expressed his respect for the American people, for the American history, for the American achievements in the world, and we don’t see any reason why Russia and the United States cannot cooperate for the sake of the universe.
Tucker Carlson: But the United States is funding a conflict that you’re involved in, of course, and now is allowing attacks on Russia itself. So that doesn’t constitute war?
Sergey Lavrov: Well, we officially are not at war. But what is going on in Ukraine is that some people call it hybrid war. I would call it hybrid war as well, but it is obvious that the Ukrainians would not be able to do what they’re doing with long-range modern weapons without direct participation of the American servicemen. And this is dangerous, no doubt about this.
We don’t want to aggravate the situation, but since ATACMS and other long-range weapons are being used against mainland Russia as it were, we are sending signals. We hope that the last one, a couple of weeks ago, the signal with the new weapon system called Oreshnik was taken seriously.
In the context of these statements he invoked the undesired and catastrophic possibility of the standoff between Russia and NATO entering nuclear territory:
“The message which we wanted to sell in testing, in real action, this hyper sonic system is that we will be ready to do anything to defend our legitimate interest. We hate even to think about war with the United States which will take nuclear character… [but] since some people in Washington … seem to be not very capable to understand [Russia’s interests], we will send additional messages if they don’t draw necessary conclusions.”
And other interesting moment came when the top Russian diplomat outlined his country’s motives in Ukraine vs. Washington’s…
“They fight to maintain global hegemony over every region, while we fight for our legitimate security interests. Senator Lindsey Graham even said Ukraine’s rare earth metals must not be left to Russia—openly admitting their goal is resource exploitation. They support a regime willing to give away natural and human resources. We fight for the people whose ancestors built and developed these lands for centuries.”
“In any case, this is not what we wanted,” he elsewhere said on the question of war. “We would like to have normal relations with all our neighbors—but generally, with all countries, especially a great country like the United States.”
…”We don’t see any reason why Russia and the United States cannot cooperate together for the sake of the universe,” Lavrov emphasized in a key moment.
* * *
Some highlights…
“An Invitation to Disaster”: Sergey Lavrov commented on talk of a limited exchange of nuclear strikes between the US and Russia in the interview…
Escalation fears… the central question
Russia’s real key condition for lasting peace in Ukraine
Biden administration is seeking to leave as big a mess at it can for incoming Trump administration
The permanence of the Russia-China alliance in the face of Washington aggression
Cooperation for the sake of the peace of the universe
Continue by watching the full interview here.
KING REPORT
| The King Report December 6, 2024 Issue 7385 | Independent View of the News |
| Bitcoin hit $103,000 during Asian trading. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq are bubbling while Fangs are in an historic bubble. Yet PE Powell and his ilk aver that Fed monetary policy is restrictive. @Callum_Thomas: Bubbles are one of the most fascinating aspects of finance and human/crowd psychology… these historical examples go to show how this phenomenon is a constant through time because people are a constant. Also, kind of makes your head spin seeing prices go up 10x in the space of a year (and right back down again). https://x.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1864369251462615050 Bank of America: Not since the 1920s have we seen the potential for a major tech boom to coincide with significant deregulation and tax cuts. Historically, both have driven large booms in equities; however, big busts have always followed… https://x.com/grayzoneintel/status/1864348001575022686/photo/1 @Monica___K: Always the steepest gains are made in the most euphoric stages of the bubble. It’s like the steepest SPX gains are made on rate cuts before a recession hits. And are we seeing such steep gains now, or is that a slow grind higher Santa Claus? Initial Jobless Claims 224k, 215k prior and exp.; Continuing Claims 1.871m, 1.896m prior, 1.904m ex0, Stocks, bonds, and commodities retreated on Thursday after booming for PE Powell’s Wed. appearance. There was no impact news; perhaps traders wanted to ‘even out’ ahead of today’s jobs report. ESZs traded moderately to modestly lower (in a range) from the Nikkie opening until the rally for the NYSE opening began at 9:20 ET. ESZs then gyrated wildly until they broke higher at 9:59 ET. ESZs jumped top a daily high of 6104.75 at 10:02 ET. Aggressive selling appeared; ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 6090.25 at 10:37 ET. But traders have been conditioned over the past several years to buy dips. So, eager buying pushed ESZs to a daily high of 6107.25 at 12:53 ET. Aggressive selling reappeared; ESZs sank to 6091.00 at 13:24 ET. After a spike to 6101.25 at 13:43 ET, ESZs stair-stepped down to a new daily low of 6088.50 at 15:27 ET. The last-hour manipulation took ESZs to 6096.25 at 15:46 ET. There were real sellers in the market; so, traders had to dump. ESZs sank to 6085.50 at 15:57 ET. Grinning suspect who killed UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson Police seen in newly released pics https://trib.al/mmqhq7j Bullets Used in Insurance CEO Killing Inscribed with ‘Delay’ – BBG The words “delay” and “depose” were written on a shell casing and a live round recovered in front of the New York Hilton Midtown, where UnitedHealth Inc. insurance chief Brian Thompson was fatally shot…. The inscriptions loosely echo the book title Dely, Deny, Defend, which describes tactics allegedly used by insurers to deny claims… UnitedHealth was among a group of companies slammed in a Senate report earlier this year for using automated tools to increase claim denials… the words on the shell casing may be a distraction designed to divert form the true motive, Giacalone (ex-NYPD Sgt. & now professor) said… Ex-WaPo reporter Taylor Lorenz Says ‘We Want These Executives Dead’ Hours After Health Insurance CEO Murdered – “People have very justified hatred toward insurance company CEOs because these executives are responsible for an unfathomable amount of death and suffering,” Lorenz said in another post. “As someone against death and suffering, I think it’s good to call out this broken system and the ppl in power who enable it.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/taylor-lorenz-says-we-want-these-executives-dead-after-health-insurance-ceo-murdered Positive aspects of previous session Fangs were modestly higher during early NYSE trading. USZs turned modestly positive when stocks tanked in the afternoon. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks, bonds, commodities, and the dollar declined early on Thursday, a rarity. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new intraday highs but closed negative for the session, a big negative! Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did defensive asset allocators appear on Thursday? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6080.85 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6094.55; 6072.90 Only 6% of federal workers show up in person on a full-time basis, scathing Senate report reveals https://trib.al/ODQrsQk Trump World Sources: Joni Ernst Is Waging ‘Aggressive’ Personal Jihad Against Hegseth Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, has been leading an “aggressive” personal jihad against Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s nominee for defense secretary, multiple sources within Trump world with direct knowledge of her outreach to Trump told The Federalist on Wednesday… “She’s waging a campaign to replace Pete with herself,” a Trump source familiar with her phone calls with Trump said… https://thefederalist.com/2024/12/04/trump-world-sources-joni-ernst-is-waging-aggressive-personal-jihad-against-hegseth/ Iowa Sen. Ernst denies allegation of affair with soldier while deployed In the court documents, Ernst’s ex-husband, Gail Ernst, accused her of having an affair with one of her soldiers while she was deployed as a company commander. She said Wednesday that she cares “about all of my soldiers” that the allegation was not true… https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/01/23/iowa-sen-ernst-denies-allegation-of-affair-with-soldier-while-deployed/ @MorePerfectUS: Blue Cross Blue Shield in Connecticut, New York and Missouri has declared it will no longer pay for anesthesia for the full length of some surgeries. If the procedure goes over a certain time, anesthesia will not be covered for the duration. (Annoucned on the same day that the UNH CEO was assassinated!) @thefoodbabe: Froot Loops sales are tanking! Down 54.6% in last 12 weeks. American companies cannot continue poisoning us with artificial ingredients they don’t use in other countries or they will go bankrupt! RIP Froot Loops. Fed Balance Sheet: -$9.313B with Treasuries -$7.589B; Reserves at Fed: -$2.599B Today – The November Employment Report, barring a sigma-sized anomaly, should have a transitory effect (released at 8:30 ET) that could be played out by the 9:30 ET NYSE opening. The market expects a 25bp rate cut at the 12/18 FOMC. It will take a very strong jobs report, which is highly unlikely given recent economic data, to disabuse The Street of the notion that the Fed will cut rates on 12/18. Traders will of course play for the Friday Rally. However, the presence or absence of defensive asset allocators could be the key dynamic for the stock market. Stocks look very, very tired. Expected economic data and Fed speakers: Nov. NFP 218k, Mfg. 30k, Rate 4.1%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.9% y/y, Workweek 34.3; Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7%; Dec UM Sentiment 73.2, Current Conditions 65.2, Expectations 77.7, 1-year Inflation 2.7%, 5-50-year Inflation 3.1%; Oct Consumer Credit $10.0B; Fed Gov. Bowman 9:15 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10:30 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack 12:00 ET, SF Fed Pres Daly 13:00 ET ESZs are -6.25; NQZs are -19.00; and USZs are +4/32 at 21:10 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 5867; 100-day MA: 5695; 150-day MA: 5592; 200-day MA: 5477 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,156; 100-day MA: 41,931; 150-day MA: 41,023; 200-day MA: 40,453 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6075.11 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5220.07 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5650.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5978.05 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6066.38 triggers a sell signal Supreme Court justice sparks social media fire storm for her comments on gender transitions for minors – Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was slammed on Wednesday after she compared a Tennessee law banning gender transitions for minors to past laws banning interracial marriage… https://t.co/DWsGgclifM Democrats pressed Capitol Police to show favoritism to officer who killed J6 protestor, memos show – The committee’s investigation uncovered evidence that the Capitol Police went to extraordinary lengths to promote Byrd and provide him financial support not received by other officers on duty on Jan. 6… https://justthenews.com/accountability/hldofficer-who-shot-j6-protestor-shown-favoritism-capitol-police-under-political Pollster Scott Rasmussen’s Napolitan News Service survey found 62% oppose the (Hunter) pardon, including 41% who strongly opposed it. Only 30% of voters favored Biden’s clemency… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/americans-overwhelmingly-oppose-bidens-pardon-his-son-hunter-poll Harry and Meghan gave almost £200,000 to Biden’s daughter to fund wellness centre Couple’s Archewell Foundation gave money to Ashley Biden’s Women’s Wellness (Spa)ce last year, according to tax return https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/03/harry-meghan-donate-ashley-biden-wellness-centre-for-women/ @EndWokeness: Illegal migrant complains: “They gave us no help, only free hotels and bad food” https://t.co/VcotvqGKtQ “Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.” — Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING
SEE YOU ON FRIDAY
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