GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $31.10 TO $2662.75

SILVER PRICE UP $0.91 TO $31.96

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2658.95

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.82

Bitcoin morning price:$98,566 DOWN 3084 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $97,146 UP 3504 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $16.15 TO $944.90

Palladium price; UP $18.70 TO $982.00

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3767.96 UP 43.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2085.25 UP 18.73 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,519.14 UP 27.86 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)

DONATE

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END

EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,638.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/06/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/10/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
132 C SG AMERICAS 10
190 H BMO CAPITAL 19
323 C HSBC 123
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 200
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 70
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 12
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 197
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 40 8
661 H JP MORGAN 16
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 20 53
690 C ABN AMRO 10 13
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 13
880 C CITIGROUP 4
880 H CITIGROUP 111
905 C ADM 9

---

TOTAL: 468 468

JPMorgan stopped 24/468

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 468 NOTICES FOR 46800 OZ  1.455 TONNES

total notices so far: 17,102 contracts for 1,710,200 Oz (53.194 tonnes)

FOR  DEC

SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 6917 for 34.585 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $31.10 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.91 AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/.

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.680 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1164 CONTRACTS TO 140,520 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN OF $0,00 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2064 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN  IN PRICE. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY COMEX TRADING  AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS TO WHICH THEY SUCCEEDED WITH YESTERDAY’S SILVER’S NO GAIN IN PRICING. 

WE HAD A HUGE 850 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 499 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN MONDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2014 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT FRIDAY’S COMEX SESSION. THEN MUCH TO MY SURPRISE THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER 100 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 500,000 OZ

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX AND THAT THAT CONTINUED ON MONDAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 499 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.00) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD AN HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2014 OI. CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A HUGE 850 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (NOV 29). THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE HERE THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER BE DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! SHOCKINGLY,MONDAY MORNING, WE HAD 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED. TOTAL FOR MONTH 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE DID HAVE A HUGE 55 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 55,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.

// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 36.980 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 38,14 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN ( LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION +//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 499 CONTRACTS)/ PLUS ANOTHER 500,000 O\ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 243 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 DAYS, total 10,859 contracts:   OR 54.295 MILLION OZ  (1809 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  54.295 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 54.295 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1164  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 850 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  40.435 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD .66 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR + .500 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL; 38.14 MILLION OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 38L14 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2014 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR ZERO LOSS IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 499 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//LITTLE IF ANY FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY

/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE ZERO GAIN IN PRICE FRIDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT   (499) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, PROBABLY TODAY.

WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1516 OI CONTRACTS  TO 467,975 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 997 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (1516 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $6.50 IN PRICE FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 55.169 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY FRIDAY’S 321 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 32,100 OZ (0.9984 TONNES OF GOLD). THIS TOTALS 55.953 TONNES AND FROM THAT WE MUST ADD LAST SATURDAY’S ISSUANCE OF .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK AND THEN THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.919 TONNES+ AND FINALLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EX FOR RISK OF 7.0108 TONNES//NEW STANDING 65.6606 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DEC: 65.6606 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $6.50 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 3434 OI CONTRACTS (10.681 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 321 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (32100 OZ)  ALONG WITH THE .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK “DELIVERY” ISSUED EARLY LAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 1.919 TONNES (EX. FOR RISK) AND THEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER 7.0108 TONNES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 4950 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,975

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3434 CONTRACTS  WITH 1516 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4950 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3434 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 4039 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE FRIDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4950 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 519 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3434 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.169 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 32,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK PRIOR (LAST SATURDAY) AND THEN THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 1.919 TONNES EX. FOR RISK AND THEN EARLY SATURDAY’S 7.0108 TONNES//NEW STANDING RISES TO 65.6606 TONNES

//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 65.6606 TONNES

 / 3) LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE  FRIDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS AS WE HAD A   $6.50 PRICE GAIN. BUT WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///HUGE T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 4039 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///321 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 32,100 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

DEC

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 44,175 CONTRACTS OF 4,417,500 OZ OR 137.40 TONNES IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7845 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  137.40 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  137.40 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.87% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 137.40 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an ex for physical issuance/maybe this time we will surpass March 22 record of 409 tonnes for the month)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1164 CONTRACTS OI  TO 140,520 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 850 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 850 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 850 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1164   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 850 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2014 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 10.070 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.0 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/MONDAY MORNING SUNDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.54 PTS OR 0.05%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 549.39 PTS OR 0.68%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 69.39 OR 0.68%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .03%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2712 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2710// Oil UP TO 68.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.91 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAK AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1516 CONTRACTS TO 467,975 DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.50 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS WE HAVE A STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AND WE ALSO HAD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4950). THUS A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3434 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AND THEREFORE NO LOSS IN NET LONGS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS  202, AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING BUT VERY LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 4950 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  4950 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4950 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 3434 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4950 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1516 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.50 FRIDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE SIZED SIZED 4039 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING, BUT IT WILL PICK UP IN THE COMING WEEK WITH THE INCREASE IN T.A.S. ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   DEC (65.6606 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 55.953 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR + 1.919 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK WEDNEDAY+ 7.0108 TONNES FRIDAY NIGHT /NEW TOTAL 65.6606 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY   $6.50/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. WE DID HAVE LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE, FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING. LATE LAST WEEK, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES THUS ALL THREE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. (9.7074 TONNES).

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 10.681 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 32,100 OZ OR 0.9984 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR ISSUED LATE LAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.919 TONNES ISSUED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING) AND FINALLY THE 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR 7.0108 TONNES

THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR = 2.6966 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO TODAY’S 7.0108 TONNES (EX FOR RISK) TOTAL: 9.7074 TONNES + NORMAL GOLD TONNES STANDING OF 55.953 = DELIVERY TOTALS. OF 66.6606 TONNEES

/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 66.6606 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 66.06 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $6.50

WE HAD 997 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3434 CONTRACTS OR 343,400 (10.681 TONNES)

confirmed volume FRIDAY 187,663 contracts: poor //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT.

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

DEC 9

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	17,313.100 OZ Brinks           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	468 notice(s) 46800 OZ 1.455 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	887 contracts    88,700 OZ 2.7580 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	17,102 notices 1,710,200 oz 53.194 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits:  NIL oz

we have 0 customer deposit

total deposits nil oz 

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks: 17,313.100 oz

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 17,313.100 oz

adjustments: 3 all customer to dealer

a) Brinks 13,696.326 oz’

b) JPMorgan: 4,120.47 oz

c) Manfra 11,863.717 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.

For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1355 contracts having GAINED 188 contracts. We had

133 contracts were served on FRIDAY, so we GAINED 321 contracts or 32,100 oz underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.

JANUARY LOST 30 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2217

FEBRUARY LOST 4656 CONTRACTS TO 356,420 .

We had 468 contracts filed for today representing 46800 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 40 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 468 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 24 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,102 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC(1355 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (468 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,798,900 OZ  OR 55.953 TONNES. to which we add 2.6966 tonnes of exchange for risk/PRIOR + NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK FRIDAY: 7.0108 TONNES//new total: 65.6606 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:  No of notices filed so far (17,102 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC  (1355 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (468 x 100 oz which equals  1,798,900 oz (55.953 TONNES)  + .2.966 tonnes of ex. for risk PRIOR +7.0196 EX FOR RISK TODAY //new total 65.6606 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 65.6606 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,896,532.313  oz 58.99 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,827,841.790 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,005,386.743/// 249.00 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,872,455.047 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,108,854 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.01 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/17.833 million oz = 20.14% of entire inventory..

END

SILVER/COMEX

DEC 9. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE DEC 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	94,686.520 oz Brinks HSBC .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	464,266.500 oz Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)	2 CONTRACT(S)    (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	479 contracts  (2.355 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	6917 Contracts  (34.585 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks 464,266.500 oz

total customer deposits 464,266.500 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks 34,136.920 oz

ii) out of HSBC 06,547.600 oz

total withdrawal 94,684.520 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.032million  or 43.97%

adjustment 1 customer to dealer/Brinks

a) 101,650.370 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 75.740MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.043 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 480 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 169 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

180 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON FRIDAY SO WE FINALLY HAD A GOOD 11 CONTRACT OR A 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 37 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2454

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 80

MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 669 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,626

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for 10,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 66,684 fair// t.a.s. enhanced to a MUCH lesser extent,

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6917x 5,000 oz = 34.585 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (480) and the number of notices served upon today (2)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month:  6917 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(480) minus number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 36.980 MILLION OZ. + to which we add .66 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR// + .5000 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY MORNING//new total 38L140

 New total standing: 38.140 million oz.

There are 75.639 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

 NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE

 NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES

NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES

NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES

NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES

NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES

NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES

NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES

NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES

NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE

NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES

NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 871.94 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ

DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ

NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ

NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ

NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ

NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ 

NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ

NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ

NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ

NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 473.680 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

Alasdair Macleod…

s gold vulnerable to another shakeout?

The COT figures show that last Tuesday hedge funds were net long 180,375 contracts. The question is how solid are these holders, and what are the seasonal factors?

Alasdair MacleodDec 8∙Paid

READ IN APP

The chart below shows how Comex’s Managed Money category drives the gold price, and has been doing so, particularly since 2021:

This is normal market behaviour. But in all bull markets, there are times when the hedge funds are a little too enthusiastic. Could this be one of them?

My next chart indicates the Managed Money’s current group sentiment:

For reference, the pecked line shows the average net long position since 2006, about 110,000 contracts. I would call that neutral and pencil in the 200,000 level as indicating overbought conditions for this category. In conclusion, Managed Money is not overbought, but there may be some room for the Swaps (mainly bullion bank traders) to shake out some of the weaker hedge fund speculators when circumstances allow.

This is the current mark-to-market position of the Swaps:

Things are going the wrong way for them, and they are certain to pounce on any opportunity to shake out flaky longs.

In short, an absence of meaningful economic news (and to a lesser extent perhaps geopolitical factors) ahead of the new presidency is conducive to sideways action — which is what we are seeing. This makes gold vulnerable to bear raids from the Swaps. And keep in mind that bullion bank traders will wish to see lower gold and silver prices for their year-end valuations, an important factor for calculating annual bonuses.

This point having been made, seasonality alone suggests there will be higher prices in the New Year. And in the past, this has sometimes led to gold bottoming out in mid-December. But if this coming week sees the price dipping from here as the Swaps play their games, stackers should rejoice in a Christmas bonus ahead of a positive 2025 — for gold that is.

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

China signals bolder stimulus for next year as Trump returns

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-12-09 10:41 Section: Daily Dispatches

From Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Monday, December 9, 2024

China’s top leaders signaled bolder economic support next year using their most direct language on stimulus in years, as Beijing braces for a trade war when Donald Trump takes office.

President Xi Jinping’s decision-making Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, signaling more rate cuts ahead and shifting from a “prudent” strategy that has held for 14 years.

The 24-man body also vowed “more proactive” fiscal policy at its monthly huddle, according to the official Xinhua News Agency, raising expectations for Beijing to widen the fiscal deficit from 3% at the annual parliamentary session in March. That would open the door to more central government borrowing to shore up the faltering economy. …

For the remainder of the report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-eases-monetary-policy-stance-073152230.html

Ronan Manly: Trump tariffs will trigger trade war, with gold and silver benefiting

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-12-09 10:22 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Monday, December 9, 2024

With less than two months until his inauguration on 20 January 2025, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is ramping up the rhetoric on tariff threats to unprecedented levels — even by his own “all guns blazing” standards.

In the space of less than two weeks, Trump has lost no time in firing off import tariff threats against China, Canada, Mexico, and all nine member countries of BRICS (a grouping that represents 45% of the world’s population). 

In doing so, Trump is rekindling fears of global trade wars and creating global economic uncertainty.

This global economic uncertainty coupled with the expected increase in inflation caused by probable trade wars will have serious consequences for global financial markets, but will likely be a boon for precious metals prices, given the role of gold and as universal safe-haven assets and traditional inflation hedges. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.bullionstar.us/blogs/ronan-manly/trump-tariffs-will-trigger-global-trade-war-with-gold-and-silver-set-to-benefit/

END

END

China never stopped buying gold.

After Volatility Collapse, Gold Breaks Out As China Resumes Bullion-Buying

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 10:20 AM

The last ten days or so have seen an almost unprecedented collapse in gold’s realized volatility…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the price of the precious metal hovered just below its crucial technical 50-day moving-average level…

Source: Bloomberg

As we posted on X, this created a coiled spring like tension in the markets, that may have just been broken by news from Beijing as Reuters reports that China resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month pause (which ended an 18-mnth buying streak) and also launched (another) major stimulus effort.

“Falling U.S. interest rates and ongoing solid demand from central banks are supporting the gold price. (It) Was definitely good to see again purchases by the Chinese central bank last month, but other central banks have been also buying large quantities,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

That prompted a jump in the barbarous relic this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

Robust central bank buying, monetary policy easing and geopolitical tensions have driven gold to multiple record highs this year, setting the metal on track for its best year since 2010 with a over 28% increase so far.

“The decision to increase gold holdings, particularly following Trump’s recent election victory, reflects the PBOC’s proactive approach to safeguarding economic stability amid evolving global conditions,” OCBC analysts said in a note.

Zero-yielding bullion thrives in a low interest rate environment and is considered a hedge against political and economic uncertainty.

Adding to political uncertainty in the Middle East, Syrian rebels seized Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia, ending 13 years of civil war and over 50 years of Assad family rule.

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 202 ANDREW MAGUIRE INTERVIEWING DR STEPHEN LEEB

Youtube.com/watch?v=KRmUGI2ECxo&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1

END

LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 202

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.54 PTS OR 0.05%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 549.39 PTS OR 0.68%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 69.39 OR 0.68%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .03%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2712 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2710// Oil UP TO 68.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.91 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAK AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2712

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2710

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 1.54PTS OR 0.05%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 549.24 PTS OR 2.76%

2. Nikkei closed UP 69.39 PTS OR 0.18%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  105.69 EURO RISES TO 1.0569 UP 3 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.039 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.83…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.083 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.187 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.749

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 2.883

3j Gold at $2656.80 /Silver at: 31.81  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 11/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 100.12

3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and  71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.87  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.039% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8797 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9295  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.180 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.371 UP 4 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.1204 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.80…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.3125 DOWN 1 PTS

10 YR FRANCE YIELD: 2.857 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS FRENCH YIELD/GERMANY A HIGH .826 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.039 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.863 DOWN 1 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Flat As Geopolitical Tensions Offset Latest China Stimulus Vows

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 08:26 AM

S&P futures are flat after hitting a fresh record highs on Friday and ceding brief gains sparked by China’s monetary-policy shift, as investors focused on an upsurge in geopolitical risk and the outlook for interest-rate cuts in the US and other major economies. As of 8:00am, S&P futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futs were down 0.2% after rising earlier following China’s announcement that authorities will embrace a “moderately loose” strategy next year. More steps on the fiscal side could be unveiled at Wednesday’s Central Economic Work Conference. While Beijing’s pledge boosted Asian markets and supported US-listed Chinese shares in premarket trading, gains elsewhere were short-lived with South Korean stocks plunging as the political crisis deepened. Pre-mkt, Mag7 is mixed while bond yields are flat to up 2bps. the Bloomberg dollar index is flat even as the yen tumbles as hopes that the BOJ will hike in December once again crumble. Commodities are stronger, led by energy and base metals, as moves are being driven by the positive stimulus news from China. As the Fed enters its blackout window, the key macro data points are CPI/PPI, though it would take a tail-risk type of print to move the Fed away from cutting next. 

US premarket gainers included Apollo Global (APO) and  Workday (WDAY) as the stocks are set to replace Qorvo and Amentum in the S&P 500 Index. Apollo +6%, Workday +9%. Super Micro Computer gained 8% after the embattled server maker said Nasdaq had granted the firm more time to become compliant with listing rules. To the downside, Nvidia slipped premarket on news of a probe in China over suspicions the the AI chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

• Alibaba (BABA) rises 6% along with other Chinese stocks listed in the US after the country’s top leaders provided a sign of further stimulus ahead. Baidu (BIDU) +5%, PDD (PDD) +8%
• Arcellx (ACLX) rises 6% after the drug developer gave data from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a form of blood cancer, which Baird says appears to support “best-in-class” efficacy for the drug.
• BioAge Labs (BIOA) sinks 69% following news late Friday that the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company is halting a Phase-2 trial evaluating its azelaprag drug for the treatment of obesity.
• Interpublic (IPG) jumps 13% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Omnicom is in advanced talks to buy the advertising and marketing company.
• Macy’s (M) rises 2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Barington Capital has built a position in the department-store operator and plans to push for changes, including the establishment of a separate real estate unit.
• Nvidia (NVDA) slips 1% as China has opened a probe into the company over suspicions that the US chipmaker has broken anti-monopoly laws.
• Reddit (RDDT) rises 5% after a Morgan Stanley analyst admits he missed the boat on the company’s huge post-initial public offering gains. Yet he feels there’s still time to jump aboard.

In a desperate attempt to once again jawbone the markets higher, China’s top leaders doubled down on what they did in September, and signaled bolder economic support next year using their most direct language on stimulus in years, as Beijing braces for a trade war when Donald Trump takes office. President Xi Jinping’s decision-making Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, signaling more rate cuts ahead and shifting from a “prudent” strategy that’s held for 14 years, although following the huge disappointment that was the September fiscal stimulus “bazooka”, traders quickly took profit on the meager gains demanding deeds not words.

“The somewhat looser monetary policy stance by the Politburo is welcome news, though it won’t materially change the situation for the Chinese economy,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, economics and ESG at Panmure Liberum. “What is needed is substantially more fiscal stimulus that is supported by a looser monetary policy.”

Elsewhere, crude oil as well as gold prices rose after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria unsettled an already restive Middle East. South Korea also risks prolonged political impasse, with opposition lawmakers pushing for another impeachment vote on President Yoon Suk Yeol. That saw Korean markets extending declines, sparking fresh selling in crypto, while the won fell about 1% against the dollar.

Amid the geopolitical turmoil, investors will turn their attention to this week’s central bank meetings. The ECB meeting for the first time since the collapse of governments in Paris and Berlin, is expected to cut interest rates, as are the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank. Australia’s central bank will likely keep rates on hold. US inflation data will be another key event, potentially determining whether the Federal Reserve eases policy again at its Dec. 18 meeting. While the November jobs report indicated on Friday that the labor market is cooling enough to allow a rate cut, the inflation print could heighten uncertainty, should it show price pressures accelerating last month by more than the 0.3% forecast in a survey.

“Inflation remains too high regardless, which has been limiting the central bank’s ability to loosen monetary policy,” Daniela Sabin Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com. told clients in a note. “The current odds show an 87% chance of a 25-bps cut next week, but this could quickly change if the CPI data does not come in as expected.”

European stocks and US equity futures also initially rallied on the China news but have now retreated from the day’s highs though sectors exposed to China, including miners and consumer products, advanced. Among individual stock movers, Turkish construction-related stocks such as Oyak Cimento Fabrikalari AS and Cimsa Cimento Sanayi VE surged as investors bet the companies will play a role in Syria’s reconstruction. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Europe’s basic resources sector leads gains in the Stoxx 600 benchmark rising as much as 2.9% as copper and iron rise as China’s top leadership announced they would embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy next year, the first shift in stance since 2011
• BASF gains as much as 3.7%, the most in a month, following an upgrade to buy from hold at Warburg which says “not all is doom and gloom” for the German chemicals firm
• Banco BPM rises as much as 3.9% in Milan trading after Credit Agricole raised its stake in Italy’s third-largest bank, a move aimed at defending its interests in the country
• CompuGroup shares jump as much as 31%, to €21.64, after CVC made a voluntary public takeover offer for the German software company at €22 per share
• Pharming gains as much as 10%, the most since October 2023 after Jefferies initiated buy citing that the current valuation as failing to reflect potential from two rare disease drugs
• HelloFresh shares drop as much as 8.2%, a move that Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne describes as “unjust” after a report that the US Labor Department is investigating allegations concerning the use of child labor at a cooking and packaging facility in Illinois
• DocMorris shares fall nearly 5% after Zuercher Kantonalbank cut its recommendation on the Swiss pharmaceutical products retailer to market perform from outperform, citing a liquidity shortage
• European defense shares fall after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described talks with US President-elect Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron as “good and productive” in a social media post

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced as stocks in Hong Kong staged a late rally after Beijing pledged to support growth. Shares in South Korea continued to drop amid a deepening political crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.4%, after trading in a narrow range earlier in the day. TSMC and Alibaba were among the biggest boosts to the regional gauge. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rebounded in the final hour of trading after the nation’s top leaders vowed to ease monetary policy and expand fiscal spending. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reversed a small drop to end the day 3.1% higher, it’s biggest gain since Oct. 18. The Politburo said it will embrace a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy in 2025, marking its first major shift in stance since 2011, and also pledged to “stabilize property and stock markets.” “The wording in this politburo meeting statement is unprecedented,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Bank China Co Ltd. “We think the commentary points to strong fiscal expansion, big rate cut and asset buying. The policy tone shows strong confidence.”

Meanwhile, Korea’s benchmark Kospi dropped more than 2% amid the risk of a prolonged stalemate after Saturday’s impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol failed. The ongoing drama has complicated the government’s efforts to reform corporate governance and eradicate the perennial undervaluation of the nation’s equities.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is down. JPY and CHF are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and NZD outperform. The offshore yuan and commodities climbed after China’s top leaders announced they plan to loosen monetary policy and expand fiscal spending next year.

In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the yield curve steeper, unwinding a portion of Friday’s rally sparked by November jobs data. Long-end yields are ~2bp cheaper on the day, with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 1bp-2bp near session wides. 10-year is around 4.165%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 3bp.

In commodities, oil gained as the market weighed the fallout from the toppling of the Syrian government, which dealt a blow to longtime backers Russia and Iran. WTI trades within Friday’s range, adding 1.4% to near $68.12. Spot gold rises roughly $24 to trade near $2,657/oz. Spot silver gains 1.5% near $31.

Bitcoin dropped below the 100k mark, to a current session trough of USD 98,274, following a rout in Korean shares as Korean momentum traders liquidated positions to fund stock margin calls. Since Donald Trump became president-elect, nearly USD 10bln has flowed into US ETFs that invest directly in Bitcoin (BTC), Bloomberg reports. This surge in investment is driven by optimism that Trump’s crypto-friendly policies will fuel market growth. The funds now total approximately USD 113bln, BBG added.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes October wholesale inventories (10am) and November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of their Dec. 18 Fed policy announcement. This week’s risk events include CPI and PPI reports and coupon auctions beginning Tuesday.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,098.00
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $71.85/bbl
Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,653.38
US Dollar Index down 0.13% to 105.91

Top Overnight News

• Trump announces Michael Needham will serve as Counsellor of the Department of State, and Christopher Landau to serve as Deputy Secretary of State, via Truth Social.
• Trump aides reportedly contacted Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Snap (SNAP) over online drug sales, according to The Information.
• Donald Trump told NBC that he has no plans to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. He also said he had an exchange with Xi Jinping in recent days, without elaborating. BBG
• China will adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year, the first easing of its stance in some 14 years, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy to spur
• economic growth. RTRS
• Chinese state media said the country has room to increase its borrowing and fiscal deficit in 2025 as investors closely watch to see whether Beijing would use its fiscal firepower to increase stimulus in its key economic meeting next week. BBG
• China’s CPI for Nov fell short of expectations at +0.2% Y/Y (down from +0.3% in Oct and below the consensus of +0.4%) while the PPI deflation eased modestly to -2.5% (vs. -2.9% in Oct and a bit better than the -2.8% consensus). BBG
• South Korea banned President Yoon Suk Yeol from leaving the country as the political crisis deepened. The won fell and the Kospi closed lower, shedding more than 5% since the botched martial law declaration. BBG
• Israel moves to occupy a buffer zone in Syria and launches air strikes against chemical weapons depots as the government looks to reduce the risk of fallout from the Assad downfall. WSJ
• US strikes Islamic State targets in Syria and is monitoring Assad weapons stockpiles to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands. Axios
• Interpublic shares jumped premarket after the WSJ reported Omnicom is in advanced talks to buy the advertising and marketing firm. BBG
• APO (Apollo) and WDAY (Workday) will join the S&P 500 prior to the open of trading on Mon 12/23. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Top Asian News

European bourses began the session entirely in the green, with sentiment in the region lifted following the readout from the Chinese Politburo meeting. On that, it noted that China’s fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year and that monetary policy is to be moderately loose. Since, some indices have given back initial gains and slipped into negative territory to display a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors began the European session with a strong positive bias, given the risk-on sentiment vs a current mixed picture. Unsurprisingly, the China-exposed sectors top the pile following the Chinese Politburo meeting; Consumer Products topped the pile, followed closely by Basic Resources. Real Estate is found at the foot of the pile. US equity futures are mixed vs with the initial readout from the Chinese Politburo meeting sparking some modest upside in the price action; upside which has since faded.

Top European News

• Fitch affirmed Hungary at “BBB”, revised outlook to “Stable” from “Negative”

FX

• USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers (weaker vs. cyclicals, stronger vs. havens). US President-elect Trump over the weekend said he has no plans to remove Powell and said he cannot guarantee Americans will not pay more as a result of tariffs. DXY briefly breached Friday’s high at 106.15 before fading upside and slipping back onto a 105 handle.
• EUR is incrementally firmer against the USD and off worst levels. Focus for the Eurozone this week is on events in Frankfurt with the ECB set to pull the trigger on a 25bps cut. After struggling to hold above 1.06 post-NFP, EUR/USD remains stuck on a 1.05 handle, just above the 1.0550 mark.
• JPY, along with CHF is lagging across the majors as news out of China has triggered a pick-up in sentiment and subsequently weighed on havens. For Japan specifically, focus overnight was on an upward revision to Q3 GDP. USD/JPY is back on a 150 handle with the pair now showing a great deal of direction over the past few sessions.
• GBP is slightly firmer in what has been a catalyst-thin session for the Pound thus far. As such, it is possible that the USD leg of the equation will do the heavy lifting for the pair. Cable has gained a firmer footing on a 1.27 handle.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard following positive commentary out of China in which the Politburo noted that fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year, whilst monetary policy is to be moderately loose. AUD/USD has reclaimed the 0.64 mark but is below Friday’s 0.6455 high. RBA is expected to deliver an unchanged decision on Tuesday.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1870 vs exp. 7.2627 (prev. 7.1848)

Fixed Income

• Mar’25 UST contract is a touch lower after pulling back from highs after positive commentary from the Chinese Politburo which noted that fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year, whilst monetary policy is to be moderately loose; first shift in monetary policy since 2011. The main focus this week will be on US CPI on Wednesday. Mar’25 UST is currently tucked within Friday’s 110.28+ to 111.20+ range.
• European paper is a touch higher but off best levels following updates out of China. For the Eurozone this week, focus will largely be on the ECB’s rate decision which is expected to see the GC deliver a 25bps rate cut with policymakers refraining from publicly backing a 50bps move ahead of the meeting. Bunds are currently holding above the 136 mark and within Friday’s 135.94-136.52 range, with the corresponding 10yr yield back above 2.1%.
• Gilts are marginally higher after moving sideways for the past few sessions. As has been the case for the past several sessions, fresh UK drivers have been lacking. BoE’s Ramsden is due later today. As it stands, the Mar’25 Gilt contract has met resistance at 96.00 with the corresponding 10yr yield holding above 4.25%.
• Amundi tactically downgrades core European Fixed Income to Neutral.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent began the European session on a slightly firmer footing, with the complex lifted amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle Eastern region after Syrian fighters toppled the Assad regime. Just ahead of the European cash open, the Chinese Politburo meeting sparked considerable upside in the oil complex, with Brent’Jan 25 rising to a session peak of USD 72.15/bbl.
• In a similar vein to the above, spot gold began the European session on a firmer footing with sentiment lifted amid the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle Eastern region. Alongside this, Reuters reported that the PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus. Upside was also seen following the Politburo release. XAU currently sits at the upper end of a USD 2,627.62-2,651.22/oz range, and just shy of its 50 DMA at 2,667.96/oz.
• Base metals were mixed overnight, with copper initially benefiting from the better-than-feared Chinese PPI figures; thereafter the red-metal moved lower in tandem with a pick-up in the Dollar. After that, metals jumped to session highs following the Chinese Politburo meeting.
• Saudi Arabia set January Arab Light crude OSP to Asia at +USD 0.90 vs Oman/Dubai average (prev. +USD 1.70); NW Europe at -USD 1.25 vs ICE Brent (prev. -0.15); United States at +USD 3.80 vs ASCI (prev. +USD 3.80), according to Reuters.
• Polish pipeline operator Pern said it has restored proper operation of first branch of Western Druzhba pipeline after incident on December 1st, according to Reuters.
• PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel says it struck suspected chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile actors, according to Guy Elster.
• Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
• Syria’s ousted President Bashar al Assad has arrived in Moscow, according Russian state media. Kremlin sources suggested a deal has been done to ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Reuters.
• Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, “marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War”, according to Israeli officials cited by NYT
• IDF called Syria ‘fourth front’, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli military was instructed to seize the buffer zone and control points in order to ensure the protection of all Israeli communities in the Golan Heights, according to Israeli Defense Minister Katz.
• Israeli official said that in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of the rebels, according to Kann’s Stein.
• Israel’s Channel 13 said “The Israeli army is considering continuing the incursion into Syrian territory to expand the buffer zone in the Golan., according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israel’s Channel 13 said “Israeli intelligence is monitoring what is happening in Iran for fear that the collapse of the axis loyal to it will push it to develop nuclear weapons”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• “US administration officials fear that Assad’s fall will increase pressure on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to give the green light to produce a nuclear bomb.”, according to Kann News.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said the fall of Assad was a direct result of blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran by Israel, and added that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on its borders, according to Reuters.
• Hezbollah pulled all forces out of Syria on Saturday, according to Lebanese security sources cited by Reuters.
• US encouraged Iraq to not get drawn into Syrian unrest, according to a Senior US official cited by Reuters, and US has been in discussions with Turkish officials and US focus is “a new Syria”. Senior US official does not see role for US troops on the ground addressing chemical weapons in Syria.
• US Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State camps in central Syria on Sunday, and struck over 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria, according to Reuters.
• US President Biden said the US will support Syria’s neighbours through period of transition, and will speak with leaders in region in coming days and send administration officials, according to Reuters.
• US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces said they are still fighting Turkish-backed forces in Syria’s Manbij, according to Reuters.
• Iran said it will monitor developments in Syria and the region closely, and will adopt appropriate approaches and positions, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, adding that the long-standing and friendly relations between the Iranian and Syrian nations are expected to continue.
• “Iranian Foreign Minister: Conflicts are expected to spread not only to Iraq but to the entire region”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy met Israel and Qatar PMs to broker a ceasefire, according to the FT.

Geopolitics: Other

• US president-elect Trump said there should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in Ukraine this is time for Russia’s Putin to act, and China can help, via Truth Social.
• US president-elect Trump, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had “very good conversation” over the weekend, according to a source close to Macron cited by Reuters.
• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday China has almost doubled the number of warships around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, ahead of what is suspected to be a new round of war games, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan Defence Ministry said it instructed troops to closely monitor situation, maintain high alert on Chinese PLA drills; have raised alert level on Taiwan’s outlying islands; activated combat readiness drills to carry out at strategic locations, according to Reuters.
• Chinese military and coast guard boats have entered waters around Taiwan and the Western Pacific to carry out missions, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said seven Chinese Coast Guard ships began conducting “grey-zone harassment’ against Taiwan from early Monday, according to Reuters.
• China currently has almost 90 navy and coast ships in the waters near Taiwan, Southern Japanese islands, East and South China Seas, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.3%
• 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 11:00: Nov. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, prior 2.87%

Central Bank speakers

• Dec. 7-Dec. 19: Fed’s External Communications Blackout

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This morning we published a new chart book, “Curveballs for 2025” which looks at potential realistic positive and negative curveballs that could change the direction of travel for the global economy and markets in 2025. So far this has been a decade of surprises and we have to consider what 2025’s out of consensus surprise will be. In 2020 the pandemic meant the year-ahead outlooks were redundant by the end of Q1, in 2021 a surge in inflation surprised virtually everyone, in 2022 markets were caught off guard by the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s, in 2023, the consensus wrongly expected a US recession and in 2024, no-one expected an S&P 500 return that could hit 30% YTD in the days ahead. So as we look forward to 2025, it’s safe to say that the most surprising thing would actually be a lack of surprises.

Tech and AI could surprise in both directions in 2025 and maybe the answer will come today when I see if I’ve won the school Xmas Fayre “guess how many sweets are in this big glass jar” competition from Saturday. I took a photo of the jar and uploaded it to ChatGPT and asked it to tell me. ChatGPT gave me a range and I plumped for the middle of it. For me this will decide whether AI is hype or the biggest innovation since the wheel!

A further surprise for 2025 would be a hike from the Fed and events like Wednesday’s US CPI will be a key determinant even if the near-term implication will be whether the Fed cut next week or not. After Friday’s mixed payrolls report that went up from around 70% to 85% at the close. So that’s the main event of the week. The ECB meeting the following day will also be a key event with markets pricing in a small chance of a 50bps cut but with 25bps nailed on. Elsewhere the key events of note will be the RBA decision (hold expected), China trade data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow, the BoC decision on Wednesday (possible consecutive 50bps cut), the Brazilian rate decision (75bps hike to 12% expected), alongside a 10yr UST auction, US PPI, the SNB decision and a 30yr UST auction on Thursday, and the BoJ Tankan quarterly survey on Friday ahead of an “in the balance” BoJ meeting on December 19th where the market is expecting a 36% probability of a hike. See the full week ahead at the end as usual but now we’ll preview the US CPI and the ECB decision in more detail.

For US CPI on Wednesday, our US economists expect headline CPI growth to pick up to +0.30% (+0.24% in October), in line with the median forecast on Bloomberg, and see core printing at +0.27% (+0.28%) also in line with consensus. The headline YoY rate will therefore likely move up two-tenths to 2.8%, with core staying at 3.3%. The PPI report will follow on Thursday and our economics team forecast the headline to grow by +0.3% MoM (+0.2%). As ever the components that feed into core PCE will be the main thing to watch.

For the ECB, DB expect a 25bp cut to 3.00% in December. This will be the fourth cut since the start of the easing cycle, making it 100bp of cuts so far in this cycle. See Mark Wall’s preview here. The team expect the December ECB press conference to emphasize uncertainty and the Governing Council to reach a compromise on communications that creates more policy optionality. There is considerable uncertainty going forward, not least around the timing, extent and impact of US tariffs, and as such the Governing Council is likely to want to keep its policy options wide open in 2025.

It’s been a weekend full of interesting news with Syrian President Assad’s reign collapsing as rebel forces ousted him. With Russia and Iran historically backing the Assad government but being distracted by other conflicts on their own doorstep, the rebel forces have taken their opportunity. While many countries will be happy to see the current regime fall, the big question mark is what happens next. The rebels have been led by HTS, who spun out of al-Qaeda in 2016, so there will remain question marks about the succession. The situation probably isn’t market moving at the moment (Crude up 0.4% overnight) but has longer-term implications for a lot of the current geopolitical hotspots dominating the world at the moment.

Meanwhile Mr Trump spoke to NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday and said he had no plans to replace Powell as Fed Chair and said “tariffs are going to make our country rich. Tariffs are going to help us pay off $35 trillion in debt”. The trade comments didn’t have a lot of extra substance beyond that so hard to get too much from it at the moment.

Asian equity markets are soft this morning amid continued political upheaval in South Korea and a seemingly slow demand recovery in China. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-2.54%) is rapidly losing steam and leading losses in the region after gaining ground initially as opposition lawmakers indicated that they would push for another impeachment vote on President Yoon after the first one failed. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.57%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.36%) are also losing ground. S&P 500 (-0.07%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.05%) futures are trading just below flat.

Coming back to China, consumer prices cooled to +0.2% y/y in November (v/s +0.4% expected), its lowest in 5 months and down from a +0.3% increase in October. At the same time, factory gate inflation shrank -2.5% y/y in November but higher than the Bloomberg forecast of a -2.8% decline and against a -2.9% contraction in the previous month. The reading marked over two years of consistent declines in PPI though. Elsewhere, Japan’s GDP grew at an annualised pace of +1.2% in Q3 (v/s +1.0% expected), thus keeping alive market expectations for an interest rate hike next week from the BOJ.

Looking back at last week now, risk assets put in another strong performance, with the S&P 500 up +0.96% (+0.25% Friday) to yet another new record. Indeed, it was a third consecutive weekly advance for the index, and it means that it’s now up +27.68% on a YTD basis, not far off the +29.6% gain in 2013 that marks the strongest annual performance of the 21st century so far. That strength was echoed across global equities, with the STOXX 600 also up for a third consecutive week with a +2.00% gain (+0.18% Friday), whilst Japan’s Nikkei was up +2.31% (-0.77% Friday).

The week ended with a mixed US jobs report for November on Friday, where the headline gain for nonfarm payrolls was broadly as expected at +227k (vs. 220k consensus). Moreover, there were positive revisions to the previous couple of months, so October was revised up from +12k to +36k. That said, there were also some more negative features in the report, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.246% (vs. 4.1% expected), so it was just shy of being rounded up to 4.3% again. Indeed, it’s worth noting that the recent July peak in the unemployment rate (that helped trigger the summer market turmoil) was 4.253%, so only 0.07bps above what we saw on Friday.

From a market perspective, investors welcomed the report as it still kept the door open to a December rate cut. For instance, futures dialled up the probability of a cut to 85% by the close on Friday, having been around 70% just before the jobs report came out. And in turn, that proved supportive for US Treasuries, and the 2yr Treasury yield fell -4.7bps last week (-4.0bps Friday) to 4.104%. Meanwhile, the 10yr yield fell by a smaller -1.6bps (-2.3bps Friday).

Over in Europe, there were significant developments in France given the political turmoil that led to a vote of no confidence in the government. However, whilst the Franco-German 10yr spread initially hit its widest since 2012 last Monday, it then continued to fall over the rest of the week. So overall, it tightened -3.8bps last week (-1.0bps Friday) to 77bps. Moreover, other countries in Europe saw a larger tightening, with the Italian 10yr spread over bunds down -12.6bps last week to 108.5bps, whilst the Spanish spread tightened -5.3bps to 65bps. In part, that was because yields on 10yr bunds themselves rose +2.0bps (+0.3bps Friday) to 2.11%.

2B) European report

China’s Politburo sparks risk-on sentiment, but gains in equities have faded – Newsquawk US Market Open

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 06:02 AM

• European bourses initially gained, taking impetus from positive commentary via the Chinese Politburo; upside which has since faded. US equity futures are mixed.
• China’s Politburo says next year must seek progress while maintaining stability; China’s fiscal policy to be more proactive next year. Monetary policy is to be moderately loose, via Xinhua.
• Dollar is at incremental session lows; Antipodeans benefit from the positive sentiment, whilst havens lag.
• Bonds were initially weighed on from the Politburo read-out, but now off worst levels; USTs a touch lower whilst European paper is slightly higher.
• Commodities benefit from the risk tone sparked by the positive commentary from the Chinese Politburo.
• Looking ahead, US Employment Trends, US Wholesale Sales, NY Fed SCE, Commentary from BoE’s Ramsden, EZ finance ministers’ meeting, Earnings from Oracle.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses began the session entirely in the green, with sentiment in the region lifted following the readout from the Chinese Politburo meeting. On that, it noted that China’s fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year and that monetary policy is to be moderately loose. Since, some indices have given back initial gains and slipped into negative territory to display a mixed picture in Europe.
• European sectors began the European session with a strong positive bias, given the risk-on sentiment vs a current mixed picture. Unsurprisingly, the China-exposed sectors top the pile following the Chinese Politburo meeting; Consumer Products topped the pile, followed closely by Basic Resources. Real Estate is found at the foot of the pile.
• US equity futures are mixed vs with the initial readout from the Chinese Politburo meeting sparking some modest upside in the price action; upside which has since faded.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers (weaker vs. cyclicals, stronger vs. havens). US President-elect Trump over the weekend said he has no plans to remove Powell and said he cannot guarantee Americans will not pay more as a result of tariffs. DXY briefly breached Friday’s high at 106.15 before fading upside and slipping back onto a 105 handle.
• EUR is incrementally firmer against the USD and off worst levels. Focus for the Eurozone this week is on events in Frankfurt with the ECB set to pull the trigger on a 25bps cut. After struggling to hold above 1.06 post-NFP, EUR/USD remains stuck on a 1.05 handle, just above the 1.0550 mark.
• JPY, along with CHF is lagging across the majors as news out of China has triggered a pick-up in sentiment and subsequently weighed on havens. For Japan specifically, focus overnight was on an upward revision to Q3 GDP. USD/JPY is back on a 150 handle with the pair now showing a great deal of direction over the past few sessions.
• GBP is slightly firmer in what has been a catalyst-thin session for the Pound thus far. As such, it is possible that the USD leg of the equation will do the heavy lifting for the pair. Cable has gained a firmer footing on a 1.27 handle.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard following positive commentary out of China in which the Politburo noted that fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year, whilst monetary policy is to be moderately loose. AUD/USD has reclaimed the 0.64 mark but is below Friday’s 0.6455 high. RBA is expected to deliver an unchanged decision on Tuesday.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1870 vs exp. 7.2627 (prev. 7.1848)
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• Mar’25 UST contract is a touch lower after pulling back from highs after positive commentary from the Chinese Politburo which noted that fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year, whilst monetary policy is to be moderately loose; first shift in monetary policy since 2011. The main focus this week will be on US CPI on Wednesday. Mar’25 UST is currently tucked within Friday’s 110.28+ to 111.20+ range.
• European paper is a touch higher but off best levels following updates out of China. For the Eurozone this week, focus will largely be on the ECB’s rate decision which is expected to see the GC deliver a 25bps rate cut with policymakers refraining from publicly backing a 50bps move ahead of the meeting. Bunds are currently holding above the 136 mark and within Friday’s 135.94-136.52 range, with the corresponding 10yr yield back above 2.1%.
• Gilts are marginally higher after moving sideways for the past few sessions. As has been the case for the past several sessions, fresh UK drivers have been lacking. BoE’s Ramsden is due later today. As it stands, the Mar’25 Gilt contract has met resistance at 96.00 with the corresponding 10yr yield holding above 4.25%.
• Amundi tactically downgrades core European Fixed Income to Neutral.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent began the European session on a slightly firmer footing, with the complex lifted amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle Eastern region after Syrian fighters toppled the Assad regime. Just ahead of the European cash open, the Chinese Politburo meeting sparked considerable upside in the oil complex, with Brent’Jan 25 rising to a session peak of USD 72.15/bbl.
• In a similar vein to the above, spot gold began the European session on a firmer footing with sentiment lifted amid the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle Eastern region. Alongside this, Reuters reported that the PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus. Upside was also seen following the Politburo release. XAU currently sits at the upper end of a USD 2,627.62-2,651.22/oz range, and just shy of its 50 DMA at 2,667.96/oz.
• Base metals were mixed overnight, with copper initially benefiting from the better-than-feared Chinese PPI figures; thereafter the red-metal moved lower in tandem with a pick-up in the Dollar. After that, metals jumped to session highs following the Chinese Politburo meeting.
• Saudi Arabia set January Arab Light crude OSP to Asia at +USD 0.90 vs Oman/Dubai average (prev. +USD 1.70); NW Europe at -USD 1.25 vs ICE Brent (prev. -0.15); United States at +USD 3.80 vs ASCI (prev. +USD 3.80), according to Reuters.
• Polish pipeline operator Pern said it has restored proper operation of first branch of Western Druzhba pipeline after incident on December 1st, according to Reuters.
• PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus, according to Reuters.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU Sentix Index (Dec) -17.5 vs. Exp. -13.5 (Prev. -12.8)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Fitch affirmed Hungary at “BBB”, revised outlook to “Stable” from “Negative”

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President-elect Trump announces Michael Needham will serve as Counsellor of the Department of State, and Christopher Landau to serve as Deputy Secretary of State, via Truth Social.
• Trump aides reportedly contacted Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Snap (SNAP) over online drug sales, according to The Information.
• Meta (META) rolls out internal AI tool as it pushes into business market, according to the FT.
• Tesla (TSLA) exported 5,366 China-made vehicles in November (prev. 27,795 in October).

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING

• Israel says it struck suspected chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile actors, according to Guy Elster.
• Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
• Syria’s ousted President Bashar al Assad has arrived in Moscow, according Russian state media. Kremlin sources suggested a deal has been done to ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Reuters.
• Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, “marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War”, according to Israeli officials cited by NYT
• IDF called Syria ‘fourth front’, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli military was instructed to seize the buffer zone and control points in order to ensure the protection of all Israeli communities in the Golan Heights, according to Israeli Defense Minister Katz.
• Israeli official said that in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of the rebels, according to Kann’s Stein.
• Israel’s Channel 13 said “The Israeli army is considering continuing the incursion into Syrian territory to expand the buffer zone in the Golan., according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israel’s Channel 13 said “Israeli intelligence is monitoring what is happening in Iran for fear that the collapse of the axis loyal to it will push it to develop nuclear weapons”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• “US administration officials fear that Assad’s fall will increase pressure on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to give the green light to produce a nuclear bomb.”, according to Kann News.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said the fall of Assad was a direct result of blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran by Israel, and added that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on its borders, according to Reuters.
• Hezbollah pulled all forces out of Syria on Saturday, according to Lebanese security sources cited by Reuters.
• US encouraged Iraq to not get drawn into Syrian unrest, according to a Senior US official cited by Reuters, and US has been in discussions with Turkish officials and US focus is “a new Syria”. Senior US official does not see role for US troops on the ground addressing chemical weapons in Syria.
• US Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State camps in central Syria on Sunday, and struck over 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria, according to Reuters.
• US President Biden said the US will support Syria’s neighbours through period of transition, and will speak with leaders in region in coming days and send administration officials, according to Reuters.
• US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces said they are still fighting Turkish-backed forces in Syria’s Manbij, according to Reuters.
• Iran said it will monitor developments in Syria and the region closely, and will adopt appropriate approaches and positions, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, adding that the long-standing and friendly relations between the Iranian and Syrian nations are expected to continue.
• “Iranian Foreign Minister: Conflicts are expected to spread not only to Iraq but to the entire region”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy met Israel and Qatar PMs to broker a ceasefire, according to the FT.

OTHER

• US president-elect Trump said there should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in Ukraine this is time for Russia’s Putin to act, and China can help, via Truth Social.
• US president-elect Trump, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had “very good conversation” over the weekend, according to a source close to Macron cited by Reuters.
• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday China has almost doubled the number of warships around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, ahead of what is suspected to be a new round of war games, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan Defence Ministry said it instructed troops to closely monitor situation, maintain high alert on Chinese PLA drills; have raised alert level on Taiwan’s outlying islands; activated combat readiness drills to carry out at strategic locations, according to Reuters.
• Chinese military and coast guard boats have entered waters around Taiwan and the Western Pacific to carry out missions, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said seven Chinese Coast Guard ships began conducting “grey-zone harassment’ against Taiwan from early Monday, according to Reuters.
• China currently has almost 90 navy and coast ships in the waters near Taiwan, Southern Japanese islands, East and South China Seas, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin edges lower and has dipped below the 100k mark, to a current session trough of USD 98,274.
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Negative mention in Barron’s; the newspaper warned against investing in MicroStrategy, noting its stock price is inflated, driven by its large Bitcoin (BTC) holdings. With the company’s market value exceeding its Bitcoin and software business by a significant margin, the stock’s premium appears unsustainable, especially if Bitcoin’s post-election rally falters.
• Since Donald Trump became president-elect, nearly USD 10bln has flowed into US ETFs that invest directly in Bitcoin (BTC), Bloomberg reports. This surge in investment is driven by optimism that Trump’s crypto-friendly policies will fuel market growth. The funds now total approximately USD 113bln, BBG added. (Bloomberg)

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mixed for a bulk of the session before eventually trading mostly lower, with South Korean stocks underperforming after the vote to impeach South Korea’s President failed following a boycott by ruling party MPs.
• ASX 200 was relatively flat for most of the session before tilting lower amid a late pullback in base metals and ahead of the RBA announcement tomorrow which is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.35%.
• Nikkei 225 traded between gains and losses before adopting an upward bias as Q3 GDP was revised higher.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened mixed but later traded lower with the former subdued by property names whilst the latter gears up for China’s Central Economic Work Conference on December 11th and 12th, whilst Chinese CPI missed expectations whilst PPI printed slightly above forecasts – with no major price action seen on the release.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s Politburo says next year must seek progress while maintaining stability; China’s fiscal policy to be more proactive next year, according to Xinhua. Will enrich and improve policy toolbox. Must stabilise foreign trade and investment. Will step up unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments. Monetary policy is to be moderately loose. To boost consumption forcefully. Will stabilise property and stock markets.
• Chinese President Xi says “we must affirm the confidence to win whilst doing next year’s economic work”, via Xinhua.
• China’s Commerce Ministry say China and South Korea are to accelerate free trade talks.
• China Securities Regulators have asked investment banks to help speed up offshore listings, according to Reuters sources.
• China CPCA says China sold 2.45mln passenger cars in November (+16.6% Y/Y) vs 2.28mln in October.
• Acer (2353 TT) announces November revenues of TWD 22.75bln (+20.9% M/M, and +13.1% Y/Y).
• South Korean President Yoon has been banned from leaving the country, according to Yonhap.
• China’s regulators will try to bolster the property market with improved policies on land usage, tax and other financial measures, according to Xinhua.
• Fitch Ratings downgraded China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.3% (prev. 4.5% in September); 2026 forecast cut to 4.0% (prev. 4.3%). Fitch said the prolonged downturn in the property market remains a risk.
• South Korean President Yoon survived an impeachment motion in the opposition-led parliament on Saturday after members of his party boycotted the vote – with too few members present to pass the measure as voting began., according to Reuters.
• South Korea’s opposition party to propose new impeachment bill on December 11 for vote on December 14, according to Yonhap.
• South Korean Finance Ministry said it is making all-out efforts to stabilise markets and deploying contingency plans; will work with BoK on outright purchase of KTBs if needed; will announce measures to improve FX liquidity before end-Dec, according to Reuters.
• South Korean opposition leader Lee said some irreversible economic fallout expected on chips industry, and financial markets unless President Yoon steps down immediately, according to Reuters.
• RBNZ said the Board has engaged with finance minister over new financial policy remit, and welcomes an updated remit that is relevant to RBNZ’s current and future work programme.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese CPI YY (Nov) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Chinese PPI YY (Nov) -2.5% vs. Exp. -2.8% (Prev. -2.9%)
• Chinese CPI MM (Nov) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.3%)
• Japanese GDP Revised QQ (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• Japanese GDP Rev QQ Annualised (Q3) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)
• Japanese GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ (Q3) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.2%)

MIDDLE EAST

US President-elect Trump’s Middle East Envoy says “the hostages better be released before inauguration, it would not be a pretty day if they are not”.

2C ASIAN REPORT

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3C JAPAN

end

3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC

China/

Here We Go Again: China Vows More Massive Stimulus, Embraces “Moderately Loose” Monetary Policy

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 09:40 AM

It’s desperation time in China again.

Two months after Beijing vowed it would unleash a fiscal bazooka, sending Chinese stocks soaring, only to see the entire move reverse as the market was promptly disappointed by yet another empty promise by the world’s second largest economy, on Monday China’s top leaders signaled another round of bold economic support next year using their most direct language on stimulus in years, as Beijing braces for a trade war when Donald Trump takes office.

President Xi Jinping’s decision-making Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, signaling more rate cuts ahead and shifting from a “prudent” strategy that’s held for 14 years, and reverting to the policy stance that defined the post-GFC world until 2010.

As Bloomberg reports, the 24-man body also vowed “more proactive” fiscal policy at its monthly huddle, according to the official Xinhua News Agency, raising expectations for Beijing to widen the fiscal deficit from 3% at the annual parliamentary session in March. That would open the door to more central government borrowing to shore up the faltering economy.

China’s leaders ticked off nearly every major problem plaguing the economy, with direct pledges to “stabilize” the stock market as well as the property sector fighting a years long slump. In a first, cadres touted “extraordinary” measures for counter-cyclical policy adjustment, language analysts said could hint at greater bond issuance or a stabilization fund to support the stock market. Among the various (laughable) promises were the following”

• China’s monetary policy to be moderately loose next year
• Fiscal policy to be more proactive
• To enrich and improve policy toolbox
• To boost consumption and investment efficiency
• To step up extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments
• To deepen high-level opening up
• To effectively prevent, resolve risks in key areas
• To stabilize foreign trade and investments
• To implement more proactive macro policies
• To expand domestic demands in all aspects
• To enhance party’s leadership on economic work
• To lift investment returns
• To firmly prevent systemic risks
• To promote urban-rural integrated developments

Policymakers also elevated the importance of boosting consumption, making that the top goal of the meeting — potentially a sign the work conference will make domestic demand the priority for 2025. Xi’s push for manufacturing to propel the economy has seen the US and European Union complain China is flooding their markets with cheap goods and prompted calls for Beijing to get its own consumers spending.

Of course, getting all these tasks completed would cost trillions (in dollars) in new debt, which is why gold has resumed its surge higher. And just like in September when Beijing unleashed its latest promise to start a new Golden Age for China, the gusher of superlatives flooded in: the Politburo’s December meeting “sent the most aggressive stimulus tone in a decade,” Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing wrote in a research note, adding that “while the tone is very positive, implementation remains uncertain.” 

“The wording in this politburo meeting statement is unprecedented,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Bank China Co Ltd. “We think the commentary points to strong fiscal expansion, big rate cut and asset buying. The policy tone shows strong confidence.”

Of course, this won’t be the first time China has vowed to stimulate… or the second, or the third. And, sure enough, after an initial burst higher, the euphoria quickly fizzled and China-linked stocks in the US dipped after bursting higher. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan erased losses to trade modestly stronger on bets China’s economy will recover due to monetary and fiscal stimulus. Regional currencies also got a boost from the Monday readout, with Australian dollar rising 0.3% and New Zealand’s currency trimming losses. That said the moves were far more muted than the eruption observed in late September when the world was convinced a true bazooka was coming only to be left with a big bag of nothing.

While Politburo readouts never reveal new numerical economic targets, the vaguely worded statements give important clues on future policy. The December conclave sets the agenda for the larger Central Economic Work Conference that crafts priorities, such as the annual growth goal. That meeting is set to begin Wednesday.

Other highlights of the Politburo meeting included:

• Signaled 2024 growth target of “around 5%” will be hit by saying full-year goals will be met “smoothly”
• Reaffirmed the overall principle of “using progress to promote stability”
• Pledged to continue push for technology innovation and the construction of a modern supply chain
• Vowed to implement economic reforms, including some “iconic” measures
• Repeated a pledge to open up the economy, stabilize foreign investors and trade
• Vowed to strengthen political supervision as part of Xi’s signature anti-corruption drive, suggesting party cadres will face more close scrutiny of their loyalty to China’s top leader.

“The wording in this Politburo meeting statement is unprecedented,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The policy tone shows strong confidence against Trump’s threats,” he noted, referencing the US president-elect’s vow to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese exports that would decimate bilateral trade.

Perhaps the most notable change was Beijing’s decision to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy; the last time China did that was in the Global Financial Crisis as part of a bazooka stimulus package to prop up the economy. That’s something Beijing has vowed to avoid repeating, with officials providing just enough support to hit this year’s growth goal of around 5% without loading up debt.

The Politburo readout, however, sent markets a message Xi is feeling a new urgency. It’s a reminder “top leaders’ view on economic conditions has shifted substantially compared to last quarter,” said Martin Rasmussen, senior strategist at macro research firm Exante Data. And yet, for all the talk, Beijing has yet to follow through with any tangible action which is why the market continues to ignore every and all such promise from Beijing.

After second quarter growth fell short, policymakers started rolling out stimulus in late September. Economists widely expect another cut to the amount of cash banks have to keep in reserve before the year is out, while a rate adjustment is more likely to fall in the first quarter of 2025. According to ANZ Bank’s Xing, the message points to a big rate cuts: “We think it points to strong fiscal expansion, big rate cut and asset buying,” Xing said adding that “special LGBs will be used to buy homes and stock stability funds may be introduced. The policy tone shows strong confidence against Trump threats.”

“The statement looks to manage market expectation. Any disappointing number at the late March NPC will hit the market.”

As well as rising trade tensions, China is battling its longest streak of deflation this century. That problem was on display earlier Monday in data showing producer prices falling in November for a 26th straight month. Consumer prices also rose at their slowest pace in five months, hovering around zero. Falling prices have undercut the economy’s 4.8% growth so far this year, eating into corporate profits and pushing companies to cut investment as well as wages. While the People’s Bank of China has slashed interest rates and offered more cash for banks several times, authorities have found it hard to spur greater borrowing.

The Politburo promised to “forcefully lift consumption” and drive domestic demand “in all aspects,” without directly mentioning the problem of deflation. That could indicate more rounds of the cash-for-clunkers program that’s operated as a consumption voucher, encouraging people to buy new electronics at a discount in exchange for their old products.

China’s Premier Li Qiang vowed to deploy “every means possible” to boost consumption at a meeting on Monday with heads of major international economic organizations in Beijing, including the International Monetary Fund, which has long called on China to expand domestic demand.

While the latest language on fiscal policy doesn’t mark a fundamental shift from the “pro-active” adopted in 2008, the addition of the word “more” signals government spending will be dialed up. A state media commentary Friday said Beijing had ample room to raise its budget deficit next year.

Fiscal spending is widely regarded as the most important element in any stimulus package, since private demand from households and companies has dwindled. While government spending has been weak this year, in November the Finance Ministry launched a $1.4 trillion rescue program for indebted local governments to free up regional officials to boost growth.

The specifics of the government’s budget, including the fiscal deficit and the amount of bonds it plans to issue, will likely only be revealed in March during the annual legislative session. But the Politburo readout will likely raise expectations for those targets.
“The Politburo statement is very positive,” He Wei, China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. “It has everything that people wanted.”  

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

END

ISRAEL/SYRIA/GOLAN HEIGHTS AREA/IRAN PROXIES

Syrian army retreats from Syrian side of Golan Heights/(Qunietra) as Israel calls up troops to defend their side of the Golan. Iranian interests move from there towards Iraq.

(jerusalemPost)

IDF calls troops to Golan as rebels force Syrian army from border province

The IDF announced that following a situational assessment, the military would call up additional soldiers for defensive missions in the Golan Heights.

By MAYA GUR ARIEHDECEMBER 7, 2024 12:09Updated: DECEMBER 7, 2024 15:40

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Following a situational assessment on the topic of the war in Syria, the IDF will call up additional soldiers for defensive missions in the Golan Heights, adjacent to the Israel-Syria border, the military announced on both Friday and Saturday.

On Friday, the military completed a General Staff exercise in the northern Jordan Valley and the southern Golan Heights. 

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3810613&url=www.jpost.comIDF ground troops participate in an airlift exercise in the northern Jordan Valley and southern Golan Heights. December 6, 2024. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

During the exercise, General Staff readiness was drilled by the Operations Directorate, by both air and land, to assess response time and reaction to an emerging incident in real time. 

The exercise involved soldiers from different training programs and squadrons, some of whom remained in the Golan Heights area to reinforce defensive missions along the Syrian Border, the military noted. 

The war in Syria

The Syrian army began retreating from the Quneitra province bordering Israel on Saturday, Israeli state broadcaster KAN News reported, citing Syrian opposition sources. 

Two rebels and a Syrian officer confirmed to Reuters that rebels took over the city of Quneitra in the governate of Quneitra in the Syrian Golan. 

Earlier on Saturday, the Syrian army withdrew from Daraa and Suwayda in southwestern Syria. 

Along with the Syrian army’s retreat, several members of pro-Iranian militias began to withdraw from Syria towards the direction of Iraq, an Iraqi security source told Saudi news outlet Al-Hadath.

Iranian-backed militias retreat to Iraq

Al-Hadath noted that the source said that hundreds of foreign fighters belonging to Iranian-backed militias from Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan are retreating to Al-Qa’im, an Iraqi border town. 

Dozens of Syrian troops entered Iraq at the Al-Qa’im border crossing in coordination with Iraqi forces, local officials and security sources told Reuters. 

END

end

/SYRIA/SYRIA REBELS//IRAN/USA INTERESTS/DRUZE INTERESTS/SATURDAY

The Syrian regime is losing all of its support from the original uprising in the NorthWest where HTS took

Aleppo. The former rebels in the South (Da’ara Province) has been reconstituted and is ready to move onto Damascus. The Druze in the south is also fighting as they want independence from Assad. The North-East and South East is where the USA has interests and they are fighting the regime as they too move onto Damascus. The Iranian interests have been thwarted here

take out your scorecard…..

(JerusalemPost)

Syrian rebels make significant gains towards Damascus, near border with Israel

While the rebel factions have deep political divisions, their united goal in toppling the Al-Assad regime is the driving force behind this lightning offensive.

By SETH J. FRANTZMANDECEMBER 7, 2024 14:31Updated: DECEMBER 7, 2024 15:29

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Syrian rebel groups have made major advances against the Syrian regime in southern Syria over the last two days. Many of these rebel groups who once operated near Dara’a in southern Syria near the Jordanian border had reconciled with the Syrian regime.

This reconciliation did not always go smoothly because a low-level insurgency continued since 2018 when the groups laid down their arms. This has important ramifications for Israel because the groups operate not far from the Golan border.

The rebel groups appeared to retake control of much of the area they controlled back in 2018 over a 48-hour period from December 6 to 7 in southern Syria. This is a large area that includes the Jordanian border, the city of Dara’a and the countryside around it. The groups are reportedly also moving into areas near Quneitra near the border with Israel. The rebel groups here are often called the Southern Operations Room of the Syrian Rebellion.

Levant24 noted that “Syrian revolution forces, led by the Southern Operations Room and the Command of Military Operations (CMO), have made sweeping territorial gains across multiple provinces, including Hama, Homs, and Daraa, as they push towards Damascus in their effort to topple the Assad regime. The developments signal a turning point in the ongoing conflict, with regime forces reportedly retreating under pressure and civilian resistance bolstering the revolution.”

The situation is changing rapidly. Rebel groups continue to take areas in Dara’a province. This is symbolically important because the Syrian rebellion began here back in 2011. Throughout part of the Syrian civil war, these groups received some support from Jordan and the West.

Rapid progress made

However, they eventually surrendered in 2018 and were reconciled with the Syrian regime. Some of the forces joined Syrian army units. As the rebels have advanced, it appears some of the forces had the chance to leave their Syrian army units and rejoin the rebellion, having been only tacitly “reconciled” with the regime. For instance, the Syrian regime’s 9th division received a large number of reconciled fighters, according to a study from Middle East Institute. Reports that a base of the regime’s 34th Brigade, which is part of the division, fell to rebels on December 7 might indicate that reconciled units simply melted away from this division.

It is not clear what has become of the Russian-backed 5th Corps, which had been active in southern Syria. This corps has been the center of numerous controversies since 2018. The Syrian regime forces in southern Syria appear to have collapsed completely. The Syrian-Jordanian border is 233 miles long. It appears the rebels in Dara’a have already taken more than 100 miles of this border. The rest consists of open desert.

Jordan sees these developments as a sensitive issue. The kingdom closed its Nassib crossing with Syria on December 6. There was a Jordanian border crossing near Ramtha, although it is apparently closed. Reports on December 7 indicated that the rebels had seen so much success in Dara’a that they want to march on Damascus, which is around 100km north of Dara’a.

Another key part of the border area with Jordan is the Druze area of southern Syria centered on Suwayda. This is an area called Hauran that includes Jabal al-Druze, or the Druze mountain region. Druze rebelled here against the Ottomans in 1909 and against the French in the 1920s. There was a Druze state here in 1921. Therefore, the Druze area has a history of a desire for autonomy. Around fifty miles to the east of the Druze area is another key area that is important for the rebellion against the regime. This is the area of US-backed Syrian rebels around Tanf base. The base is a US garrison that dates back eight years in Syria and was supposed to train rebels to fight ISIS. The group being trained is called the Maghawir al-Thawra, or MaT for short. It is called the Revolutionary Commando Army in English but is also called the Syria Free Army.

Importance of offensive

What matters for our purposes is not the name but the progress the group made recently. It had been in an area called Tanf in the desert near the Jordanian-Iraq border. This area had a 55km zone around it, basically a half circle, that the US kept the regime out of. The regime had attacked this area with drones, and Kataib Hezbollah even targeted an area in Jordan called Tower 22 near here, killing three American personnel in January 2024. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and these rebel groups have burst out of Tanf and headed toward Palmyra. They also reportedly took a strategic mountain called Gharab near the Iraqi border.

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Shaam online media said that “the Free Syrian Army factions in the Al-Tanf area announced today, Saturday, December 7, 2024, the start of their military movement in the Syrian Badia region east of Homs, and launching attacks against regime positions, in parallel with the battles taking place on the outskirts of the northern city of Homs, and the exit of the Daraa and Sweida governorates from the control of the regime, in a scene that seems to lead to tightening the noose and imposing a comprehensive siege on the center of the capital, Damascus.”

The offensive by the rebel group from Tanf is important as it cuts off the Iranian-backed movement from Albukamal toward Palmyra and also toward other bases in the desert called T3, T4, and T2. T4, or Tiyas base, was a key base for the Russians and Iranians.

The Iranians even tried to fly a Khorded air defense system into that base in April 2018. Albukamal, on the Syrian border with Iraq, is important because Kataib Hezbollah once had a base there until a June 2018 airstrike. Iran then built a base called Imam Ali near there. Now it appears the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have taken Albukamal as well as Deir Ezzor. This apparently caused the Syrian regime to also flee Palmyra in the desert.

 It’s hard to understand all these moves without familiarity with all these places. What’s important to think about is that the Syrian regime’s strength lies in Damascus and also a line of cities such as Homs and Hama, Aleppo, and the area of Lattakia. The regime also held Deir Ezzor during the ISIS war when it was under siege from 2014-2017. The rapid collapse of the regime in these areas is fascinating because, in many cases, it had held and fought for these areas, such as Dara’a, for years. Now, it has collapsed in just hours in many of these areas.

One has to imagine now that the regime is losing ground in the north from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive that began around November 27. HTS took Aleppo and then Hama. Now, it may take Homs. The SDF has caught the regime by surprise, taking areas near Deir Ezzor and Albukamal. The formerly reconciled Syrian rebels of the Southern Operations area have retaken Dara’a province six years after they lost it in 2018. The rebels at Tanf have moved toward Palmyra and secured key areas of the desert.

The Druze have taken parts of the Hauran. This represents a series of moves that could encircle Damascus. The factions don’t necessarily all get along. The SDF and HTS are from different ends of the political spectrum, one a left leaning movement rooted in part in the Kurdish parts of northeast Syria, and one a religious movement rooted in Islam and moving from Idlib in northwest Syria. The rebels in the south are all historic rebels who date back to 2011 in varying ways. They are very different than the SDF or HTS. There are also Arab tribal elements and the Druze. The fact that the Assad regime alienated all these groups shows how weak it is.

end

END

/

SYRIA /ISRAEL/IRAN/KURDS/SYRIAN GOVERNMENT FORCES/TURKEY/RUSSIA

An excellent analysis of the situation!

(Jerusalem Post)

The toppling of Assad’s regime in Syria may be bad news for Israel – analysis

A weakened Syrian regime under Assad, therefore, is in Israel’s interest. But here’s the rub: Israel would like to see Assad weakened, but not overmuch, and not toppled.

By HERB KEINONDECEMBER 6, 2024 11:54Updated: DECEMBER 7, 2024 14:33

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The sudden rekindling of the Syrian civil war has many Israelis looking to the northeast and asking the following question: “The enemy of my enemy is fighting my enemy, so whom am I for?”

Or, in other words, who would Israel least like to see parked on its border with Syria: Iranian-backed Shia jihadist extremists or Turkish-backed Sunni jihadists?

Since the answer is neither, Israel’s approach to the developments in Syria will be to stay out of the melee as long as its security interests are not directly or immediately threatened. As Yitzhak Shamir was once quoted as having said during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s – when two of the Jewish state’s fiercest enemies were weakening each other – Israel can “wish both sides success.”

The Syrian civil war flared anew on November 27 with an offensive by an alliance of hardcore Sunni jihadists, once allied with al-Qaeda (called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan-backed Islamists (the Syrian National Army [SNA]) against the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. This alliance has since taken most of Aleppo and moved on to its next target: Hama.

Few saw this coming, though it should not have been that much of a surprise. It was always clear that the Mideast war Hamas began on October 7 with its barbaric attack on Israel would have wider regional implications. What was not clear, but is now coming into focus, is what those implications and ramifications would be.

The October 7 attack led to Hezbollah opening a front against Israel and driving 60,000 Israelis from their homes. This led, after 11 long months, to Operation Northern Arrows with the aim of bringing those residents back home. This operation resulted in exploding Hezbollah beepers, the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership, the severe degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities, and the demonstration – via an airstrike on Iran – of the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability and penetrability.

And this sequence of events led to the decision by the Syrian rebels to try to retake Aleppo and reignite the civil war at a time when three of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s biggest allies are severely weakened or preoccupied: Moscow tied up in Ukraine, and Hezbollah and Iran at their weakest point in years due to the Israeli onslaught, which likely would not have happened were it not for October 7.

With Assad’s three allies far from what they once were, the rebels saw an opportunity – one that they had clearly been planning for – and pounced. Not coincidentally, they struck on November 27 – the same day the Hezbollah-Israeli ceasefire was announced.

Hamas’s attack is already reshaping the Mideast well beyond the borders of Gaza in ways few anticipated. It was clear after October 7 there would be strong aftershocks that would be widely felt. Just how strong and how widely felt is quickly becoming apparent.

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, pitted a hard-to-keep-straight jumble of different actors with a myriad of different ideological interests one against the other. The renewed fighting is no different. Here’s a look at the prime interests of four key players in that drama: Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

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Israel

Israel is an actor in this drama in that its actions in Lebanon and Syria significantly weakened two of Assad’s primary backers – Hezbollah and Iran – prompting the rebels to strike. But Israel is only an indirect actor, not actively involved in the fighting taking place in the north of Syria.

Nevertheless, Israel has definite interests in Syria, primarily to weaken the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis and prevent Iran from using Syria, as it has in the past, to rearm and build up Hezbollah.

A weakened Syrian regime under Assad, therefore, is in Israel’s interest. But here’s the rub: Israel would like to see Assad weakened, but not overmuch, and not toppled.

That’s the paradox.

Why weakened? So that Syria will be unable for generations to pose a credible threat to Israel. The long-running civil war has taken Syria out of the circle of countries that can pose a conventional threat. Notice that in the current war, Assad has not opened up an additional front against the Jewish state, not wanting to give it any pretext to blast away at the Syrian army.

The IDF has struck some 70 targets in Syria over the past year, but those have primarily been Iranian and Hezbollah assets, not assets belonging to the Syrian army.

And why does Israel not want to see Assad overly weakened?

Because Israel would like to see Damascus move away from Iran and toward the moderate Sunni countries like the United Arab Emirates. In recent months there has been positive movement in that direction, movement that will likely now come to a halt, as Assad will need more – not less – help from Iran.

If, in the past, the bargain offered to Assad was economic aid from the Gulf countries in exchange for moving out of Iran’s circle of influence, now Syria is in desperate need of boots on the ground – which only Iran, or its proxies, can provide.

As to why Israel would not like to see Assad toppled, this is because that may lead to chaos, something rarely good for Israel.

Jerusalem, in general, likes predictability – and Assad in Syria provides that. While Assad is no friend, Israel at least knows what to expect from him – what he can and cannot do, what he will and will not do. A new ruler in Damascus of the Sunni jihadist variety would be unpredictable.

If, under the guise of the reignited civil war, Israel sees Iran trying to transfer weapons to Hezbollah, it can be expected to act. But, short of that, it can be expected to let its enemies just slog it out – all the while repeating the mantra: “Jerusalem is monitoring the situation.”

Turkey

For the rebels to launch the type of offensive that they did, they needed the go-ahead from Turkey, which Erdogan gave even though his backing of the rebels puts him at odds with Iran, Russia, and – inasmuch as one of his interests is to squash the Kurds – also the US.

Why risk this? Because Erdogan is keen on resettling in northern Syria the estimated 3.5 million Syrian refugees who poured into his country since the start of the civil war, and because he wants to further undermine Kurdish efforts in the region.

Regarding resettlement of the refugees, Turkey and Syria have been in reconciliation talks for months (Erdogan quickly backed the rebels when the civil war began). But these talks have gone nowhere, with Assad demanding that Turkey remove its troops from a security zone that Turkey, together with the SNA, have carved out in northern Syria.

This rebel offensive now gives Erdogan added leverage against Assad to reach an agreement.

The Syrian refugee crisis has increasingly become a domestic issue in Turkey, where – amid an economic crisis – there has been a backlash against the refugees, something that hurt Erdogan’s party in local and parliamentary elections. He wants them to return precisely to the buffer zone in the north.

In addition, Erdogan is hoping that the fighting will help contain and potentially remove the threat he perceives from the Kurdish groups in northeastern Syria, which – at least until President-elect Donald Trump comes into power on January 20 – have US support.

The success of the rebels gives Erdogan increased leverage and strengthens his position in shaping Syria’s future.

Iran

Along with Assad, Iran is the biggest loser as the rebels gain ground.

Tehran has invested billions in Syria since the beginning of the civil war there, seeing the country as central to its efforts to encircle Israel with a “ring of fire” of proxies willing to do its bidding.

Iran’s interest is clear: to preserve Syria as a conduit of arms to Hezbollah and as a platform from which it can produce arms for the Lebanese terrorist group and rebuild its prime proxy. If Assad falls, that conduit is lost.

Like Hezbollah, however, Iran’s resources are not limitless, and – because of the drubbing Hezbollah took in Lebanon – the resources Iran can now allocate to save Assad are not the same as they were in the past.

Iran has militias comprised of Iraqis, Pakistanis, and Afghanis it may deploy, but these militias do not match Hezbollah in their battle readiness and training. Hezbollah, decimated by Israel, is in no position to send forces now to prop up Assad.

Syria is key to Iran’s regional influence, and if Assad falls, it loses that asset.

Russia

Russia intervened actively in 2015 in the Syrian civil war, and by so doing tipped the scales in Assad’s favor. Moscow’s intervention stemmed from several interests that are as important for the Kremlin today as they were then.

The first is that through Syria, Russia is able to project power throughout the Middle East and combat US influence in the region.

Assad gave Russia a much-coveted warmwater port on the Mediterranean in Tartus, as well as an air base near Latakia. Agreements with Assad will allow Russia to operate the port and air base for the next half century, if not longer. This has strategic significance for Moscow, which explains why, in the midst of its war with Ukraine, over the last week it has undertaken bombing runs against the rebels in northern Syria, trying to halt their advance.

In addition, Moscow has an interest in showing other allies that it will come to their aid and keep them from obliteration – one reason the rapid defeat last week of Assad forces around Aleppo was such an embarrassment for the Kremlin. Assad’s poor showing undermines Russia’s position in the region and trashes the perception Russia wants to project that – unlike the US – it is a superpower on which its allies can rely to ensure they do not fall.

end

SYRIA/REBELLION/SATURDAY

Looks like Assad is finished and may have fled the country; the rebels are in control of the country

(JerusalemPost)

Jihadists Reach Outskirts Of Damascus Amid Likely Transition Of Power Deal, Assad’s Fate Uncertain

Saturday, Dec 07, 2024 – 11:40 AM

There are widespread reports that jihadist forces under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and which are backed by Turkey have entered key districts of Homs in central Syria, and other convoys have already reached the outskirts of Damascus.

Very little fighting has actually taken place, with the Syrian Army peeling back from position after position, with heavy equipment including tanks seen being transported to the capital, or to the coast. ZeroHedge’s contacts in Damascus strongly suggest a transition of power deal has already been made.

External discussions are centered in Doha, and some premature and unverified reports have claimed President Bashar al-Assad has already flown out of the country; however, Syrian state SANA on Saturday sought to refute these reports, saying he is still in Damascus.

Iranian advisers and IRGC officers have departed Damascus. This also partly explains why Syrian national forces have not put up much of a fight.

Unverified social media reports further anti-Assad forces have essentially been able to walk into suburb or countryside areas of the capital with no resistance. Again, what points to the likely reality of a secret deal which allows Assad’s safe exit and that of his top officials is the fact that all of this is happening without much bloodshed.

Below is the latest on the jihadist convoy locations according to The Guardian:

Syrian insurgents have reached the suburbs of Damascus, opposition activists and a rebel commander said on Saturday, as a rapidly moving offensive in which they have taken over some of Syria’s largest cities continued.

Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said insurgents were active in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana and Daraya.

He said opposition fighters were also marching from eastern Syria towards the Damascus suburb of Harasta.

Hassan Abdul-Ghani, an insurgent commander, posted on Telegram that opposition forces had started to encircle Damascus in the “final stage” of their offensive. He said fighters were heading from southern Syria towards Damascus.

Map: The collapse of Syria over the last 10 days

Whatever happens next, it’s becoming clear that the Baathist Syrian state under the Assad family, which goes back to 1970 when Hafez Assad first emerged in power, will never be the same again – and is coming to a fast end.

Many Christian, Alawite, and Sunni ruling families in the capital area are fleeing to the Lebanese border, not waiting around to take their chances under Taliban-style rule, despite dubious claims that HTS plans to respect ‘diversity’ and pluralism.

Footage from a key suburbs outside the capital [note: cannot be independently verified]…

SYRIA: Anti-Assad protestors bring down Hafez Assad statue in middle of Jarmana (20 min from Damascus). The protests and rebel offensive are only spreading, gradually approaching capital… pic.twitter.com/kkBhGsOlj2

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) December 7, 2024

BREAKING — Damascus outskirts Al Moademyeh is free of Assad forces. This is right next to Mezzeh Air Base pic.twitter.com/ACLcRaTU1E

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 7, 2024

Contradictory reporting over Assad’s whereabouts and political transition plans:

Embassy Statement: Denial of Allegations Made in Wall Street Journal Article pic.twitter.com/IEE8JmbQbt

— Jordan Embassy in Washington D.C. (@JorEmbUS) December 6, 2024

Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observes, “It looks like what will remain of the old Syria will be limited to Homs, for now, and on longer term Latakia – Tartous only. Lebanon should think about defended its borders. People in Damascus should think of their future in the next 24-48 hours.”

The latest from the Syrian presidency’s office:

Presidency of the #Syrian Arab Republic affirms that President Bashar al-Assad is assuming his work, national and constitutional tasks from the capital, Damascushttps://t.co/v4ko1Nfiek pic.twitter.com/Sj8CGjaE0C

— SANAEnglishOfficial (@SANAEnOfficial) December 7, 2024

developing…

end

SYRIAN REBELLION CONTINUED

Iran said to evacuate officials from Syria as Assad’s forces lose ground

Syrian military says it redeployed in Daraa after local rebels take southern province; Russia, Iran, Turkey meeting in Qatar could lead to Syrian strongman’s ouster, analysts say

By ToI Staff and AgenciesToday, 11:07 am

An opposition fighter fires his AK-47 in the air in celebration in Hama, Syria, December 6, 2024.(AP Photo/Omar Albam)

Iran has started evacuating military commanders and other officials from Syria, The New York Times reported Friday, in a sign of Tehran’s wavering confidence in the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as disparate rebel forces eat away at his territory in the country’s north, east and south.

Russia and the United States also called on their citizens to leave Syria immediately amid the resurgent Syrian civil war, which on Friday saw rebels capture the southern Daraa province bordering Jordan.

Russia, Iran and Turkey are set to discuss the developments in a meeting Saturday in Qatar that could lead to a government without Assad, according to some analysts.

Starting Friday morning, Iran has been transferring civilians, military personnel, and some diplomats and their families to Iraq, Lebanon and the Syrian government’s stronghold in the country’s western coastal region, according to regional and Iranian officials cited by The Times.

Some officials were said to depart on flights to Tehran, while others left by land to Lebanon, Iraq and the Syrian port city of Latakia.

The report said Iran had issued evacuation orders to bases of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and to its embassy in Damascus.

The Iranian officials cited by The Times — two of them IRGC members — said two top generals of the Guard’s elite Quds Force, who were advising the Syrian military, fled to Iraq on Friday as rebel groups closed in on Homs and captured Deir el-Zour, the Assad regime’s foothold in Syria’s vast eastern desert.

Other military personnel remained in Iranian bases in Syria and were being transferred to Damascus and Latakia, the Iranian officials were cited as saying.

Opposition fighters, left, stand at the entrance of the provincial government office, where an image of Syrian President Bashar Assad is riddled with bullets on the facade, in the aftermath of the opposition’s takeover of Hama, Syria, December 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)

The Times quoted Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst, as saying: “Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation, and this option is off the table.”

“We cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” he said.

Together with Russia and Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic has been a key supporter of Assad during the 13-year-long civil war.

Syria’s conflict killed more than 305,000 people between 2011 and 2021, the United Nations Human Rights Office said in 2022.

At least 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed since the rebels’ offensive began last week, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The United Nations said the violence has displaced 280,000 people.

Amid the chaos, Israel said Friday that it was bolstering its military presence on the border with Syria.

Residents leave the city carrying their belongings in Hama, Syria, December 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)

Rebel militias take Jordanian border region

The Britain-based, opposition-aligned Observatory said Syrian government forces on Friday had lost control of Daraa city, in the country’s south.

Daraa was dubbed “the cradle of the revolution” early in the civil war, after activists accused the government of detaining and torturing a group of boys for scribbling anti-Assad graffiti on their school walls in 2011.

While Aleppo and Hama, the two other main cities taken from government control in recent days, fell to an Islamist-led rebel alliance, Daraa was taken by local armed groups, according to the Observatory.

“Local factions have taken control of more areas in Daraa province, including Daraa city… they now control more than 90 percent of the province, as regime forces successively pulled out,” the war monitor, which relies on a network of sources around Syria, said late Friday.

Syria’s army said Saturday that it was redeploying in Daraa province and in neighboring Sweida, a Druze heartland which government officials reportedly fled on Friday as local opposition forces took control of several checkpoints.

Daraa province borders Jordan to the south. Opposition activists said insurgents had seized Syria’s sole crossing to Jordan, which announced the closure of its side of the crossing. Lebanon also closed all but one of its border crossings with Syria.

Despite a truce brokered by Russia, the Daraa province has been plagued by unrest in recent years, with frequent attacks, clashes and assassinations.

BREAKING: Jordan's Interior Minister orders closure of Jaber border crossing with #Syria due to deteriorating security situation in southern Syria. Jordanians & Jordanian vehicles can return, but departures to Syria suspended. 👉https://t.co/Yr2B103puc pic.twitter.com/XnC3HTsS4W

— Dana Zureikat Daoud دانا زريقات (@DanaZkat) December 6, 2024

Insurgents secure gains in Homs and Deir el-Zour

Farther north, rebel fighters took over the central towns of Rastan and Talbiseh, putting them 5 kilometers (3 miles) from Homs, the Observatory said.

Pro-government Sham FM said the insurgents entered the towns without facing any resistance. There was no immediate comment from the Syrian military.

The Observatory said Syrian troops had left Homs. But the military denied that in comments reported by the state news agency SANA, saying troops were reinforcing their positions in the city and were “ready to repel” any assault.

A Syrian army source said any rebel push from the north of Homs would face Iran-backed Hezbollah forces who were positioned to bolster government defenses.

The Islamist group leading the onslaught, a former al-Qaeda affiliate now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), made a last call on forces loyal to Assad in Homs to defect.

Thousands of people have fled Homs for government strongholds ahead of the opposition fighter’s approach. Should the Islamic insurgents capture Homs, they would solidify a chain of powerful positions from Aleppo on the border with Turkey — which backs some of the opposition forces, but not HTS —  southward to Daraa.

There’s a traffic jam all the way from Homs to Tartous as regime supporters flee the advancing rebels. If Homs falls, Damascus is cut off from its heartland pic.twitter.com/zBgZk8ZdC0

— Liz Sly (@LizSly) December 5, 2024

Gaining Homs would also increase the rebels’ chances of isolating the seat of Assad’s regime in Damascus with the ability to block the route northwest from the capital to the sea.

In eastern Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces coalition said it had moved into the government-held half of the city of Deir el-Zour. The Observatory said government troops and their allies withdrew “suddenly” from the east and headed towards the oasis town of Palmyra, on the desert road to Homs.

The SDF also said it took control of further parts of the border with Iraq. That appeared to bring it closer to the government-held Boukamal border crossing. The crossing is vital for the Assad regime because Iran funnels weapons through it to Hezbollah.

The SDF, a US-backed adversary of Turkey, expressed readiness for dialogue with both Ankara and other rebels, saying the offensive heralded a new political reality for Syria.

Syrian Kurdish families, displaced from their homes in the Afrin region during the 2018 offensive by Turkey, return to their villages in the northern Syrian area of Afrin on December 5, 2024. (Rami al-Sayed / AFP)

Iran-Russia-Turkey meeting

The White House said Friday that it was closely monitoring developments in Syria.

In a call with his Turkish counterpart, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for a “political solution to the conflict” and for the protection of civilians and minorities, his spokesperson said Friday.

Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister, told Blinken that Syria’s government should enter dialogue with the opposition and initiate a political process, a Turkish foreign ministry source said.

Fidan is set to discuss developments in Syria with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in a meeting over the weekend in the Qatari capital, Doha.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he planned to discuss the developments in Syria with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts at a meeting Friday in the Qatari capital, Doha.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (R) shakes hands with Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (L) during their meeting at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey, March 1, 2024. (Handout / Turkish Foreign Ministry / AFP)

In an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, he said international actors were backing the insurgents’ advances and that he would discuss “the way to cut the channels of financing and arming them.”

Since 2017, the three countries have been partners in the Astana process seeking to end the civil war in Syria, even as they have supported opposite sides on the battlefield.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who this week called on Assad to “reconcile with his people,” said Friday that he “hoped the advance of the rebels would continue without incident,” openly identifying their objective as Damascus.

Turkey shares a 900-kilometer (560-mile) border with Syria and hosts nearly three million Syrian refugees.

Assad has rejected Erdogan’s recent attempts to meet, insisting that beforehand Turkish forces must leave the northwest of Syria, where they are deployed to fight Kurdish forces.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the G20 Leaders’ Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 19, 2024. (Luis Robayo/AFP)

Iran, for its part, is irked by the lack of support shown by Assad after Israel in late October killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Analysts said the three-party meeting could spell the end of Assad’s power.

“Assad managed to piss everyone off, including Iranians and Russians and Turks, everyone, because he has been dragging his feet on efforts to reach a deal with both Turkey and others,” said Gonul Tol, Turkey director of the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Turkey and Russia could seek to promote a transition government without Assad but with some elements of his regime and the opposition, she said.

end

SYRIA REBELLION/SUNDAY

Syria rebels take areas near Israel border; IDF warns them not to ‘turn in our direction’

IDF helps UN forces repel attack by gunmen in Syrian Golan, holds drill simulating rapid deployment, and sends more troops to Golan Heights; Netanyahu convenes security cabinet

By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Lazar Berman Follow
and ToI StaffToday, 9:29 pm

IDF soldiers near the Israeli border with Syria, December 7, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)

Syria’s rebel forces continued their lightning advance through the country over the weekend, saying Saturday that they had seized the regions of Quneitra and Daraa near the border with Israel, as the Israel Defense Forces vowed a strong response in the event that they “turn in our direction.”

The Israeli military said Saturday evening that it was helping United Nations forces on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights repel an attack by gunmen, near the town of Hader, close to the Israeli border.

“The IDF is now assisting the UN force to repel the attack,” the military said.

The terse statement came after the military announced Saturday that it was further bolstering its forces in the Golan Heights, after already announcing on Friday that it was deploying additional ground and air troops there.

“The reinforcement of troops will enable the strengthening of defenses in the area, and the preparation of the troops for various scenarios in the area,” the military said Saturday.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, was convening the security cabinet on Saturday evening to discuss the developments in Syria, according to a statement from his office.

Israel is reportedly preparing for the possibility that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime may collapse, amid the dramatic advances by rebel forces in recent days. CNN reported Saturday that the US was seeing an increased possibility that the regime could collapse within days, citing a source who said the president was nowhere to be found in Damascus and may possibly have fled.

An Israeli military vehicle rides along a road next to the UN base on the Israeli side of the so-called Alpha Line that separates the Golan Heights from Syria, December 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

Last weekend, rebels seized Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, in the north. Within days, they’d also taken the crossroads city of Hama, in the center of the country, and on Saturday they reportedly entered the key city of Homs and said they were starting to encircle the capital Damascus.

Rebel forces also claimed to have taken control of the Quneitra and Daraa areas — on the Israeli border — from government forces over the weekend.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, during a visit to the Syrian border Saturday, said the military was monitoring the rebel forces to make sure “they don’t turn in our direction.”

“We are very closely following what is happening. The main emphasis is to see the Iranian exit [from Syria]… and the second thing is to see the local elements taking over the area, what they are doing, how they behave, how they are deterred, and [making sure they] don’t get confused and turn in our direction,” he said.

“If there is such confusion, there is an offensive response and behind it a very, very strong defensive response,” Halevi added.

The IDF chief held an assessment Saturday with top officers at the 210th “Bashan” Regional Division, which is tasked with the Golan Heights area, during which he approved battle plans, the military said.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi visits Israel’s border with Syria on December 7, 2024. (IDF)

In the meeting, Halevi “emphasized the high preparedness in attack and defense, the concentration of forces at the border, and the continued monitoring of developments,” according to the IDF.

Halevi also “emphasized that we do not interfere in events in Syria,” but rather only “work to thwart and prevent threats in the region, and prepare plans for the various possibilities.”

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said Saturday evening that Israel was not intervening amid the developments in the Syrian civil war, but that Jerusalem wa concerned about violations of a 1974 disengagement agreement between the countries.

“Over the past day, armed forces have entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel, and have attacked the UNDOF forces in the area,” said Sa’ar in a statement.

“Israel is concerned about violations of the disengagement deal with Syria from May 1974,” which pose a threat to Israeli security, particularly in the Golan Heights, he added.

The IDF on Friday wrapped up a drill that was carried out in light of the developments in Syria, simulating a fast deployment of forces due to a sudden event.

The drill, led by the IDF Operations Directorate, was carried out in the northern Jordan Valley and southern Golan Heights, close to the border with Syria.

It drilled a rapid deployment of ground and air forces, and assessed their “response time and their reaction to an emerging incident in real-time,” according to the military.

Troops from training programs and various Israeli Air Force squadrons participated in the drill, some of whom have remained in the Golan Heights area “to reinforce defensive missions along the Syrian border,” the military added.

A Syrian opposition fighter holds a rocket launcher in front of the provincial government office, where an image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is riddled with bullets on the facade, in the aftermath of the opposition’s takeover of Hama, Syria, December 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

US envoy Amos Hochstein, in Qatar on Saturday, said the developments in Syria would make it harder for Iran to supply the Hezbollah terror group with weapons there, adding that Iran appeared to be withdrawing its support from Syria, though he didn’t clarify how.

Hochstein negotiated a US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in Lebanon that went into effect on November 27, after more than a year of daily rocket and drone attacks by the Iran-backed terror group and Israeli strikes in Lebanon after Hezbollah attacked, unprovoked, on October 8, 2023.

The US envoy said Saturday he believes Hezbollah has been weakened, but not eliminated, and added that the terror group “may not be strong enough to fight Israel or to support Assad, but it doesn’t take a lot of strength to be a dominant presence in Lebanon so you can also be weakened and still strong at the same time, when it comes to the Lebanese context.”

He added that the Syrian army’s defeats in the past week were “not that big of a surprise,” highlighting the army’s limited power in comparison with events during the country’s civil war 13 years ago when “it had two powers [Iran and Russia] coming to its aid in a very strong way.”

end

SYRIA REBELLION LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

IDF assists UN forces in Hader area in Syria repel attack by armed forces

“The key focuses are, first, monitoring Iranian involvement and interests, which is our top priority,” IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi said.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 7, 2024 17:55Updated: DECEMBER 7, 2024 22:47

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-832374&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241206_5f355f04495adb53fd278d08050db4e8fc4dbd33&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF is currently assisting the UN forces in repelling an attack that was carried out by armed individuals at a UN post in the Hader area in Syria, the IDF announced Saturday evening.

On Friday, the IDF ordered reinforcements be sent to the Golan Heights after southern Syrian rebels took over much of the south and border region on Friday.

The town of Hader lies just over the border from the Golan Heights, near the town of Majdal Shams, where Hezbollah killed 12 children.

A UN base sits between the Israeli-controlled territory to the west and the Syrian-controlled territory to the east.

The Golan Regional Council informed its residents that “in the last few minutes, gunfire has been heard in the area. This is the firing of our forces, who are deployed in defense in the area.” 

Residents of the Golan told Maariv that they were wary of developments and weren’t sure whether the rebels would be any different than Assad.

Who hit who?

It is still unclear who attacked the base, with multiple disparate groups fighting in the south as the rebels began to take hold only last night.

The southern uprisings began on Friday night after northern rebels advanced on Homs, threatening to cut off the Syrian government from the sea and Russian support.

Southern groups are not united politically, being composed of several factions, ranging from local self-defense militias to organized Druze militias to jihadist groups that were in hiding.

end

SATURDAY…

Israeli officials warn Syrian factions not to violate existing agreements with Syrian state

Halevi issued statements warning armed factions that violations would be met with an “offensive response.”

By YUVAL BARNEA, JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 7, 2024 22:47

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-832405&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241206_5f355f04495adb53fd278d08050db4e8fc4dbd33&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar have issued strong warnings to Syrian factions to avoid violating existing agreements between Israel and the Syrian state in statements issued on Saturday night.

This came after Syrian factions made rapid gains against Assad, seizing the entirety of the Syrian Golan and beginning encirclement of Damascus.

Sa’ar took to X to warn Syrian factions to avoid continuing to violate the existing ceasefire between Israel and Syria from 1974.

“During the last day, armed forces entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel. Among other things, attacks were carried out on the UNDF force in the area.”

“Israel is troubled by the violations of the separation of forces agreement with Syria from May 1974, which also expresses a threat to its security and the security of its settlements and citizens, with an emphasis on the settlements of the Golan Heights. The State of Israel does not intervene in the internal conflict in Syria.”

An offensive response

Halevi conducted a situational assessment and the approval process for defensive and offensive plans for the 210th Division alongside members of the General Staff Forum and the commanding officer of the 210th Division on Saturday on the border with Syria.

Halevi issued statements warning armed factions that violations would be met with an “offensive response,” however, he also stressed that, alongside these efforts, Israel would not intervene in events in Syria.

“The primary focus is on observing Iran’s movements and interests, which is our top priority. The secondary focus is on local factions who are taking control of the area, assessing their actions, behavior, and deterrence levels, and ensuring they do not mistakenly direct their actions toward us,” Halevi said during a situation assessment on the border with Syria.

“We must conduct a situational assessment every few hours. At this cadence, every event here defines the new standard and causes changes. In order to understand developments, we are monitoring the situation very closely with all our intelligence-gathering capabilities.”

“If such confusion does arise, there is an offensive response backed by very strong defensive responses. We must be prepared both offensively and defensively.”

end

SUNDAY…

End of an era: Rebels, Syrian army declare fall of Assad regime

“To the displaced all over the world, free Syria awaits you,” Syrian rebels announced on Telegram.

By MATHILDA HELLERDECEMBER 8, 2024 05:22Updated: DECEMBER 8, 2024 07:14

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-832420&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241206_5f355f04495adb53fd278d08050db4e8fc4dbd33&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The Syrian army command has notified officers that President Bashar al-Assad’s rule has ended following a lightning rebel offensive, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters.

At the same time, the head of Syria’s main opposition group abroad Hadi al-Bahra Syrian said on Sunday that Damascus is now “free of Bashar al-Assad.”

Assad flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

Thousands in cars and on foot congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting “Freedom,” witnesses said.

Statement from rebels

On its telegram, the rebel group stated “After 50 years of oppression under the regime, and 13 years of crime, tyranny and displacement, and after a long struggle and fight and confronting all forms of occupation forces, we announce today on 12-8-2024 the end of this dark era and the beginning of a new era for Syria.”

“To the displaced all over the world, free Syria awaits you.”

It added that the new Syria will be a place where everyone “coexists in peace, justice prevails and rights are established, where every Syrian is honored and his dignity is preserved, we turn the page on the dark past and open a new horizon for the future.”

Lieutenant Colonel Hassan Abdul Ghani of the rebel group announced that hundreds of Assad’s regime members surrendered to our forces in Deir Ezzor. 

end

Assad vanishes into thin air after rebels seize Damascus, whereabouts unknown

Exiled former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane that vanished over Syria’s coastal region, according to data from FightRadar.

By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 8, 2024 04:28Updated: DECEMBER 8, 2024 07:26

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane and left for an unknown destination, two senior army officers familiar with the incident told Reuters on Sunday.

A Syrian Air plane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels, according to data from the Flightradar website.

The aircraft initially flew towards Syria’s coastal region, a stronghold of Assad’s Alawite sect, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.

Rebel forces have declared Damascus “free,”

CNN reported that rebel forces in Syria have declared Damascus “free,” claiming Bashar al-Assad has fled the capital, according to a statement on Sunday.

“We declare the city of Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad,” the Military Operations Command wrote in a post on Telegram.

“To the displaced all over the world, a free Syria awaits you,” the statement added. 

Assad’s fate is unknown

On Saturday night, US officials told CNN that Assad’s fate was currently unknown.

The officials cautioned that there has been no formal assessment of Assad’s status and that his death has not been ruled out. 

“The emerging consensus is that is an increasingly plausible scenario,” one senior US official said to CNN.

END

 The bloody, corrupt history of the Assad regime toppled by rebel forces – explainer

The future of a country devastated by 14 years of civil war and 54 years of dictatorship now remains to be seen. 

By YOAV SHUSTERDECEMBER 8, 2024 12:29Updated: DECEMBER 8, 2024 12:59

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Just over 54 years ago, on November 13, 1970, Hafez al-Assad seized power in Syria from the rival factions of the Ba’ath Party amid the chaos that ensued in the years following the Six-Day War. 

Assad’s coup represented the defeat of the leftist factions within the Ba’ath Party and the rise of more moderate elements.

However, few could have imagined at the time that the rise to power of a disgruntled army officer—just another in a long series of coups in Syria, a country infamous for its instability—would mark the beginning of a long family dynasty, the longest in modern Syrian history.

When Bashar al-Assad inherited power following the death of his father, Hafez, in June 2000, Syria entered an exclusive club. There are very few countries in the world where the presidency has been directly passed from father to son. Among them, only three countries have father-son pairs who have ruled uninterrupted for half a century or more: Togo, Gabon, and Syria. 

In all these cases, the sons who inherited the presidency were “elected” and continued to be ostensibly re-elected through what appeared to be democratic processes.

The extraordinary longevity of the Assad regime also raises a question that has become even more relevant due to Syria’s transformation since the outbreak of the civil war: what exactly has the Assad dynasty achieved in its fifty years in power? 

When Bashar al-Assad assumed the presidency at the age of 34, his path was paved by a compliant parliament that quickly amended the constitution to lower the minimum age for the presidency, similar to the political “fatwa” (religious ruling) that had accepted the Alawites (the sect to which Assad belongs) into Islam back in the 1970s.

Bashar al-Assad inherited a country in a state of stagnation. Although his father was often praised for his strategic and diplomatic acumen, by the time of Hafez al-Assad’s death in June 2000, his country had drifted into irrelevance in the global sphere.

Hafez al-Assad also failed in his lifelong aspiration to position Syria as a regional power and a key state influencing major issues in the region. 

The theory of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that “You can’t make war in the Middle East without Egypt, and you can’t make peace without Syria” was proven wrong with the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt in 1979. 

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That same year, Syria was added to the United States’ newly established list of state sponsors of terrorism, a list on which Syria remains to this day (the only original member still on it). 

During the 1980s, Hafez al-Assad attempted various diplomatic initiatives aimed at achieving a settlement between Israel and Syria, but none came to fruition.

A decade later, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 shifted the region’s diplomatic center of gravity eastward to the Persian Gulf, pushing Syria even further to the margins of regional politics.

At the end of Hafez al-Assad’s second term, just months before his death, former US president Bill Clinton became the last American president to invest diplomatic effort in attempting to mediate between Israel and Syria, but he too failed. 

Hafez al-Assad’s famed “strategic patience” may have exhausted his opponents, but it did nothing to advance Syria’s interests, such as regaining control of the Golan Heights. Since then, this national aspiration has drifted away even further.

Bashar al-Assad’s entry into the presidential office came during a bleak period in Syria’s history. 

The economic crisis that had paralyzed the country since the mid-1980s left Syria entering the 21st century with a collapsing economy, an inefficient bureaucracy, and a weak public sector, yet with an enduring sense of invincibility. 

In the realm of security, Assad’s presidency began at a low point. Hafez al-Assad had extended control over Lebanon and brutally suppressed a Muslim Brotherhood uprising, culminating in the massacre of civilians in the city of Hama in February 1982.

Hafez al-Assad was largely indifferent to economic matters, but his son could not afford such disinterest. 

Like many dictators, Hafez viewed Syria’s public budget as a tool for the survival of his regime. He allocated resources and opportunities to cultivate networks of loyalists. These networks primarily favored regime insiders but extended far beyond them, encompassing significant segments of Damascus’s Sunni economic elite.

Hafez al-Assad’s coup was built on a partial dismantling of the radical economic policies favored by his predecessor, Salah Jadid. 

However, Hafez offered Syrians modest economic security in exchange for political silence, a form of coerced dependency that maintained a fragile social peace.

The modest economic reforms introduced during the final decade of his life proved insufficient to rescue Syria from its economic decline. Instead, these reforms opened new avenues for deepening corruption.

When Bashar al-Assad assumed the presidency in July 2000, the economic situation began to improve. GDP finally returned to the levels of the early 1980s, and GDP per capita doubled between 2000 and 2010. However, below the surface, the regime was steering Syria toward a breaking point.

The social and economic costs for Damascus continued to mount while the world’s attention focused on the elimination of internal rivals, the open-door policy for jihadists, Bashar al-Assad’s role in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and Syria’s subsequent humiliating withdrawal from Lebanon.

Despite Bashar’s efforts to modernize authoritarianism in Syria, the economic growth felt only by the upper classes left the overwhelming majority of Syrians behind.

During Assad’s first decade in power, poverty deepened, and unemployment rates soared, particularly among the youth.

In 2006, a severe drought affected Syria’s agricultural regions, and its impacts were further exacerbated by mismanagement and corruption.

Over the following years, hundreds of thousands of farmers were forced to abandon their lands, becoming refugees who settled on the outskirts of the capital, Damascus, and other provincial cities such as Daraa in southern Syria. 

Regime insiders, led by members of the Assad family, became increasingly ruthless, directing their anger at the population. This alienated the Syrian business community, which had previously supported the regime.

Bashar believed that his loyalty to the Arab states and the “axis of resistance” was sufficient to shield his regime from the wave of protests sweeping the region starting in late 2010. 

He was wrong. By March 2011, inspired by events in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, Syrians joined mass demonstrations demanding economic and social justice and an end to Assad’s regime. The regime responded with force, triggering the start of a bloody civil war that lasted nearly 14 years.

Assad desperately clung to power, employing a range of brutal methods to crush his opponents. These included bombarding population centers and using chemical weapons against his own people. 

Crossing the red line set by then-US president Barack Obama almost led Western countries to actively intervene in the Syrian war.

When it seemed that Bashar al-Assad’s fate was heading in the same direction as other Arab leaders in the region, his two loyal allies—Russia and Iran—came to his rescue. 

Russia’s entry into the war shifted the dynamics, successfully halting both the practical and psychological momentum toward the regime’s collapse. Assad was saved, but the war’s devastation, foreign involvement, and the rise of jihadist groups like ISIS left Syria with a shattered economy, a fractured society, and a reality of daily violence that persisted for nearly a decade and a half.

In recent years, the war has taken on a different form, evolving into regional struggles between groups fighting for control over their respective areas. Four years ago, a ceasefire agreement was reached between the warring factions and Assad’s regime, brokered by Russia and Turkey, creating the impression that the war was slowly winding down.

Just as in the late 1960s, when Hafez al-Assad and his allies exploited the chaos in Syria following the Six-Day War to seize power by force, the current lightning coup by rebel groups has also followed Israeli activity in the region. 

Impact of Israel’s activities in region

The rebels identified signs that the regime had been significantly weakened due to the war between Israel and Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon and launched an offensive.

The number of attacks carried out by Israel in Syria over the past year has nearly tripled compared to previous years. Iran’s activities in Syria have been significantly impacted, as have the Islamic Republic’s military infrastructure. Adding to this, Hezbollah, which in the past mobilized to save Assad, has been paralyzed. 

It is likely that the rebels identified this as an opportune moment and decided to strike at the regime, though initially not with the explicit aim of toppling it.

The rebels’ initial goal was to halt the ongoing airstrikes by Assad’s army and the Russian air force in the Idlib region. Rebel factions effectively controlled this area, primarily the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which managed the governing institutions in Idlib, home to three million residents and about one million refugees.

The future of a country devastated by 14 years of civil war and 54 years of dictatorship now remains to be seen.

END

 What happens now? How the fall of Assad’s regime can shake the Middle East – analysis

The IDF and the intelligence community are preparing for a variety of scenarios along the Syrian border and beyond.

By AMIR BOHBOTDECEMBER 8, 2024 08:49Updated: DECEMBER 8, 2024 10:59

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With the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad‘s regime on Sunday, it appears that the era of a clear single authority over most of Syria is nearing its end, and Israel will need to identify new areas of cooperation.

The Syrian rebels consist of a collection of groups and organizations that do not necessarily share the same vision of reality—except for their unity against the Assad regime, their common enemy. 

Therefore, Israel’s intelligence community will need to monitor developments and, in conjunction with diplomatic efforts, attempt to secure the area near the border by engaging with those in control to achieve basic agreements on stability.

The IDF and the intelligence community are preparing for a variety of scenarios along the Syrian border and beyond. These range from rebel activity near the fence to attempts by rebels to seize stockpiles of unconventional weapons held by the Syrian army. 

Additionally, preparations are underway to counter attempts by Iran and Hezbollah to obtain strategic weapons such as P-800 Oniks, ballistic missiles, helicopters, aircraft, and massive arms stockpiles.

Iran 

Iran is watching its most valuable asset. There is no doubt that the regime is reassessing the investment and asking itself whether it is still possible to salvage its assets in Syria and, subsequently, Bashar al-Assad.

Ultimately, the Iranians understand that what remains for them after the severe blows dealt by the IDF to Hezbollah and the collapse of Assad’s regime is the nuclear program.

Therefore, they will soon face a significant dilemma: whether to push forward with the nuclear project as a means of protection or to pursue an agreement with US President-elect Donald Trump to gain four years of quiet and immunity from an Israeli attack. 

At this stage, the Israeli government would prefer halting Iran’s nuclear project, which is progressing in a concerning manner.

Hezbollah 

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Hezbollah is recalculating its path after the war with the IDF and is currently trying to salvage weapons stockpiles in southern Lebanon. 

Its logistical backbone, Syria, is collapsing before its eyes, leaving it unable to offer significant support.

The question now arises: will Hezbollah become Assad’s sponsor in Lebanon, thereby also becoming a target for the rebels? 

It remains unclear whether the rebels will decide to march on Beirut and whether Hezbollah, given its current state, will have the capacity to stop them. 

Hezbollah’s ability to fight the IDF will decline significantly, and the organization will primarily focus on understanding the events unfolding in Syria and how they affect it.

Jordan

King Abdullah II of Jordan is constantly reading reports in the foreign media, receiving intelligence from his operatives, and understands that at any moment, the rebels could push into Jordan.

The collapse of Assad’s regime will prompt Abdullah to keep a close eye on his own country, as there are numerous internal forces that might exploit the region’s tense situation to attempt to alter Jordan’s political reality.

Israel also has reason to be concerned about Jordan’s security, given that it shares its longest and relatively most stable border with the kingdom. A significant security shift along the Jordanian border could impact the allocation of IDF forces across different sectors.

Saudi Arabia 

The collapse of the regime in Syria could be a turning point for the moderate Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia. 

At this stage, Saudi Arabia is not truly in a position to take a stand or influence the dismantling of the “axis of evil.”

The rebels may gain momentum and extend their ambitions beyond Syria, potentially affecting the entire Middle East. 

United StatesThe US military maintains a significant concentration of troops at Al-Tanf, the tri-border area of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. 

The last thing the Americans want is to see their soldiers fighting rebels. Even before the fall of Assad’s regime, senior American officials had proposed withdrawing the forces back to the US due to the risks posed by the current situation. However, such a withdrawal would be perceived as a sign of weakness and would further expose Jordan to attacks. At this stage, US policy towards Syria and the region remains unclear, as the White House is currently hesitant.

END

(JERUSALEMPOST)/SUNDAY

IDF strikes Syrian chemical weapons factory, places tanks at buffer zone

Earlier, the military noted that it had decided to reinforce troops for defense purposes throughout the Golan Heights region bordering Syria.  

By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 8, 2024 07:08Updated: DECEMBER 8, 2024 14:30

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The IDF struck a chemical weapons factory belonging to the regime of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to prevent the rebels from seizing it, Arab media first reported on Sunday, and The Jerusalem Post later independently confirmed.

In addition, IDF sources responded about whether the air force had attacked Syrian chemical weapons, saying that the military follows developments that could endanger Israel and takes the necessary steps to attack any such dangerous threats.

Israel’s position has always been to avoid conflict with Syria where possible but not to permit dangerous developments regarding advanced weapons, and it has carried out thousands of air strikes within Syria – usually only admitting to a small number of specific strikes – dating back over a decade since Syria’s civil war started.

For example, it would be against Israeli interests for chemical weapons to fall into the hands of unpredictable actors, such as some of the more jihadist rebel groups.

These attacks increased in recent months after the IDF decapitated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and started to also eliminate significant Hezbollah and Iranian interests in Syria.

In addition, the IDF confirmed it had crossed slightly into Syria to position forces at a demilitarized buffer zone along the border with Syria and at several other points of significance for defense.

END

SUNDAY

IDF takes control of Syrian side of Mount Hermon as Netanyahu hails ‘historic day’

IDF assists UN forces in Syria • Explosions heard in central Israel from Gaza strikes

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

Saudi report: Israeli forces take over Syrian side of Mount Hermon

By Emanuel Fabian

The Saudi Al Hadath outlet reports that Israeli forces have taken over the Syrian side of Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights.

The IDF earlier today said it was deploying forces to the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, though it hasn’t commented on the specific deployments.

END

Visiting Syria border, Netanyahu claims credit for process that led to Assad’s fall

By Lazar Berman

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, tours Mount Bental on Israel’s border with Syria along with military officers and Defense Minister Israel Katz, left, on December 8, 2024. (Kobi Gideon/GPO)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims credit for starting the chain of events that led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” says Netanyahu during a visit to Mount Bental on Israel’s border with Syria. “The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen. ”

“This is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime,” Netanyahu argues, referencing the 14 months of combat against Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies since October 7 of last year.

“This has created a chain reaction throughout the Middle East of all those who want to be free from this oppressive and tyrannical regime,” he adds.

Netanyahu warns that alongside new opportunities, the flight of Assad from Syria also brings risks.

“We are acting first and foremost to protect our border,” says the premier. “This area has been controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone agreed upon in 1974, the Separation of Forces Agreement. This agreement has collapsed, the Syrian soldiers have abandoned their positions.”

Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to seize the buffer zone yesterday, he says, adding that Israel will not allow any hostile forces to set up on the border.

He hearkens back to the “Good Neighbor” policy Israel pursued at the height of the Syrian civil war, saying that Israel will pursue a similar policy of giving humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians while avoiding taking an active part in internal conflicts. “Hundreds of Syrian children were born here in Israel,” he says.

Netanyahu stresses that Israel is also extending a hand in peace to Druze, Kurds, Christians and Muslims in Syria.

END

Assad said to flee to Moscow as victorious rebel leader al-Golani enters Damascus

‘This victory, my brothers, is historic for the region,’ says HTS leader at mosque in Syrian capital; Biden says fall of Assad is ‘justice,’ but is ‘a moment of risk’ for region

By Agencies and ToI StaffToday, 11:06 pm

The leader of Syria’s Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that headed a lightning rebel offensive snatching Damascus from government control, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, address a crowd at the capital’s landmark Umayyad Mosque on December 8, 2024. (Aref TAMMAWI / AFP)

Ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad reportedly fled to Moscow on Sunday, hours after a stunning rebel advance took over the capital of Damascus and ended the Assad family’s five decades of iron rule. Victorious rebel leader Abu Muhammad al-Golani greeted crowds in the freshly liberated capital city.

According to Russian news agencies, citing an unidentified Kremlin source, Assad and his family have been given asylum in Moscow. The Associated Press could not immediately verify the reports, but contacted the Kremlin for comment.

Reports also said Moscow had received guarantees from Syrian insurgents for the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic posts in Syria.

Al-Golani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams, the Islamist rebel group that led the lightning offensive, made his first appearance in Damascus since the fall of the Assad regime.

Al-Golani visited the sprawling Umayyad Mosque and called Assad’s fall “a victory to the Islamic nation.” Calling himself by his given name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and not his nom de guerre, he told hundreds of people that Assad had made Syria “a farm for Iran’s greed.”

An anti-government fighter prays in the courtyard of Damascus’ historic Umayyad mosque on December 8, 2024, after Islamist-led rebels declared that they have taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending president Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Abdulaziz KETAZ / AFP)

“This victory, my brothers, is historic for the region,” he said, “for the entire Islamic nation.”

“Today, Syria is being purified,” he said, adding that “this victory is born from the people who have languished in prison, and the mujahideen (fighters) broke their chains.”

The HTS-led rebel offensive took just eight days to topple the Syrian government forces, ending Assad’s brutal dictatorial rule and completing the goal of the 2011 rebellion that started 13 years of civil war in Syria.

As insurgents seized one city after another, prisons were often among their first objectives, freeing prisoners from one of the world’s most notorious detention systems.

The worst prisons in and around Damascus itself were finally opened on the uprising’s final night and in the early hours of Sunday.

A video verified by Reuters showed newly freed prisoners running through the Damascus streets, holding up the fingers of both hands to show how many years they had been in prison, asking passers-by what had happened, not immediately understanding that Assad had fallen.

“We toppled the regime!” a voice shouted and a prisoner yelled and skipped with delight in the same video. A man watching the prisoners rush through the dawn streets put his hands to head, exclaiming with wonder: “Oh my God, the prisoners!”

A video circulating online purported to show rebels breaking open cell doors and freeing dozens of female prisoners, many of whom appeared shocked. At least one small child was seen among them.

An opposition fighter steps on a broken bust of the late Syrian President Hafez Assad in Damascus, Syria, Decembr 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

“This happiness will not be completed until I can see my son out of prison and know where is he,” said one relative, Bassam Masr. “I have been searching for him for two hours. He has been detained for 13 years.”

Rebel commander Anas Salkhadi later appeared on state TV and sought to reassure Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities, saying: “Syria is for everyone, no exceptions. Syria is for Druze, Sunnis, Alawites, and all sects.”

“We will not deal with people the way the Assad family did,” he added.

A moment of risk and uncertainty

US President Joe Biden said Sunday that the sudden collapse of the Syrian government under Assad is a “fundamental act of justice” after decades of repression, but it was “a moment of risk and uncertainty” for the Middle East.

“For years, the main backers of Assad have been Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. But over the last week, their support collapsed — from all three of them — because all three of them are far weaker today than they were when I took office,” said Biden.

US President-elect Donald Trump said Sunday that Assad had fled his country, which his family had ruled for decades, because close ally Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, “was not interested in protecting him any longer.”

Those comments on Trump’s social media platform came a day after he used another post to decry the possibility of the U.S. intervening militarily in Syria to aid the rebels, declaring, “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT.” The Biden administration had no intention of intervening, according to Biden’s national security adviser.

A fire burns in a room of the Tishrin residential palace of Syria’s ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus’ al-Muhajirin area on December 8, 2024. (OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Sunday hailed the end of Syria’s “dictatorial regime” and urged the country to rebuild after president Bashar al-Assad’s sudden fall.

“After 14 years of brutal war and the fall of the dictatorial regime, today the people of Syria can seize a historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future,” Guterres said in a statement.

“I reiterate my call for calm and avoiding violence at this sensitive time, while protecting the rights of all Syrians, without distinction.”

Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, which provided crucial support to Assad, abandoned him as they reeled from other conflicts.

The end of Assad’s rule was a major blow to Iran and its proxies, already weakened by conflict with Israel. Iran said Syrians should decide their future “without destructive, coercive, foreign intervention.” The Iranian embassy in Damascus was ransacked after apparently having been abandoned.

Hossein Akbari, Iran’s ambassador to Syria, said it was “effectively impossible” to help the Syrian government after it admitted the insurgents’ military superiority. Speaking on Iranian state media from an undisclosed location, he said Syria’s government decided Saturday night to hand over power peacefully.

Celebrations in the capital

Damascus residents prayed in mosques and celebrated in squares, calling, “God is great.” People chanted anti-Assad slogans and honked car horns. Teenage boys picked up weapons apparently discarded by security forces and fired into the air.

Revelers filled Umayyad Square, where the Defense Ministry is located. Some waved the three-starred Syrian flag that predates the Assad government and was adopted by the revolutionaries. Elsewhere, many parts of the capital were empty and shops were closed.

Soldiers and police left their posts and fled, and looters broke into the Defense Ministry. Videos showed families wandering the presidential palace, some carrying stacks of plates and other household items.

“It’s like a dream. I need someone to wake me up,” said opposition fighter Abu Laith, adding the rebels were welcomed in Damascus with “love.”

At the Justice Ministry, where rebels stood guard, Judge Khitam Haddad said they were protecting documents from the chaos. Outside, some residents sought information about relatives who disappeared under Assad.

A man shows old pictures of the late Syrian president Hafez Assad as people search for belongings in the ransacked private residence of Syrian president Bashar Assad in the Malkeh district of Damascus, Syria, on December 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

The rebels “have felt the pain of the people,” said one woman, giving only her first name, Heba. She worried about possible revenge killings by the rebels, many of whom appeared to be underage.

Syria’s al-Watan newspaper, which was historically pro-government, wrote: “We are facing a new page for Syria. We thank God for not shedding more blood.” It added that media workers should not be blamed for publishing past government statements, saying it “only carried out the instructions.”

A statement from the Alawite sect that has formed the core of Assad’s base called on young Syrians to be “calm, rational and prudent and not to be dragged into what tears apart the unity of our country.”

The rebels mainly come from the Sunni Muslim majority in Syria, which also has sizable Druze, Christian and Kurdish communities. In Qamishli in the northeast, a Kurdish man slapped a statue of the late leader Hafez Assad with his shoe.

Opposition fighters celebrate the take over of the city by the insurgents in Damascus, Syria, Sunday Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said the government was ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and turn its functions over to a transitional government. A video shared on Syrian opposition media showed armed men escorting him from his office and to the Four Seasons hotel on Sunday.

END

Damascus Now Ruled By ‘Al Qaeda In Suits’ As Assad Emerges In Moscow

Sunday, Dec 08, 2024 – 12:02 PM

Update: BREAKING: Bashar al-Assad and family are in Moscow: Russian news agencies, via AFP

* * *

Since the overnight hours Damascus has been under the control of the Islamist militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and backed by Turkey. The country’s President Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown, and his whereabouts are unknown, after the extremely rapid insurgent advance out of Idlib, where city after city fell starting with Aleppo in a matter of about a mere week. And just like that 50 years of Assad family rule has ended, and a new extremely unpredictable era of Syria begins. 

Will the country hopelessly fracture as did Iraq and Libya for years after their strongman leaders were overthrown? Will there be mass reprisal killings? Will Christians, Alawites, and Shia be subject to mass persecution and extermination? Will the country, which has already been through over 13 years of horrific proxy war, descend into sectarian and factional chaos and hell? Will Sharia law be enforced by gunpoint? Or will some semblance of a stable transitional government emerge? 

One thing is for sure, a US-designated terrorist has emerged as the current de facto ruler of Damascus and of Syria. At this very moment Washington has a $10 million bounty on his head, given his career as a jihadist began with al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) which was killing American troops in Iraq. 

The jihadist factions entered Damascus overnight without a fight from the Syrian Army, and videos quickly emerged of armed fighters entering both the presidential palace (or office) as well as Assad’s private residence in Malki neighborhood.

State television stations broadcast a message from HTS leaders urging calm and a stable transition of power. New rules for Damascus include a curfew imposed from 4pm to 5am local time, according to the local Al Watan newspaper.

Rule by ‘Al Qaeda in suits’… technocratic jihad:

While the mood on the streets has been generally jubilant, gunfire has been heard – but more likely this is from anti-Assad fighters firing in celebration into the air. Western mainstream media has also been celebratory, generally ignoring HTS’ obvious Al Qaeda links past and present.

But for every scene the media highlights of a few hundred people celebrating in a central square, there are many more thousands of families huddled and fearful in their homes, not knowing what entity or Islamist faction controls the checkpoint around the block.

So far at least one central building has gone up in flames – the former government’s passport and immigration building. It remains unclear why or what the precise cause was.

Amid all of this Israel has continued to attack some locations in Syria, also with reports overnight that Israeli tanks pushed further into a strip of southern Syria in the Golan area. Other buildings are on fire elsewhere in the Damascus region.

Al Jazeera writes:

Images show a building on fire in Damascus after a suspected air attack. It’s believed that the Israelis may have struck what is believed to be a munitions depot close to the airport.

The Israeli media reported earlier on Sunday that the Israeli air force has bombed weapons depots in southern Syria and Damascus to prevent opposition groups from seizing them.

Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali might be installed to head of a transitional government amid promises of stability, based on a potential deal or ‘security guarantees’ involving Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the Gulf powers.

Syria’s🇸🇾 Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali leaves his hotel to officially hand over power to the terrorist groups led by Hayyat Tahrir Al-Sham, after the fall of President Assad.

Washington has succeeded; after punishing the Syrian people with crippling sanctions that… pic.twitter.com/d7butlCiqs

— Going Underground (@GUnderground_TV) December 8, 2024

As for Assad’s current whereabouts, The Wall Street Journal speculates as follows:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was in Damascus on Saturday, fled the country early Sunday local time but his current whereabouts were still unknown, according to Syrian security officials and Arab officials. Russia’s foreign ministry said later in the day that he had stepped down and left the country.

Assad had announced he would address the nation at 8 p.m. local time on Saturday, but the speech never occurred. The president’s wife and children left for Russia in late November, while his brothers-in-law left for the United Arab Emirates, Syrian security officials and Arab officials said.

Below: the breaching of the presidential palace, where Assad had conducted daily work in his office…

Syrian rebels have entered the presidential palace gates in Damascus..pic.twitter.com/ymz8JqHhPh

— Douglas Macgregor (@DougAMacgregor) December 8, 2024

Will the transition from Assad to “al-Qaeda in suits” be stable? Will a ‘Taliban-lite’ emerge? Is Sharia law coming… implemented by a terror and Islamist iron fist?

Never forget what happens when you turn your brain off pic.twitter.com/cbx2nN23eQ

— Wyatt Reed (@wyattreed13) December 8, 2024

Nothing is certain at this point, and there are likely more dark days ahead. 

U.S. Embassy Syria, 16 May 2017: https://t.co/f6EteiE8Zg pic.twitter.com/A98iHnulbK

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) December 8, 2024

developing..

END.

ISRAEL/SYRIAN GOLAN HEIGHTS/MONDAY

Israel takes the Syrian part of Mt Herman which will aid in the communications sector as well as annexing the buffer zone on the border and I guess will include the Sheba farms. Israel extends a hand to Syrians on the border including Druze to join them in peace

(EpochTimes)

Netanyahu Says Israeli Forces Secured Buffer Zone In Golan Heights After Syria’s Assad Toppled

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 02:00 AM

By Jack Phillips of the Epoch Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel’s military has taken over a buffer zone in the Golan Heights that was established decades ago, after Syrian opposition fighters ended the rule of President Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long reign.

In a statement released by video on Sunday morning, Netanyahu said that the agreement, hashed out in 1974 by Israel and former leader Hafez al-Assad’s regime, “collapsed” on Saturday night because the “Syrian army abandoned its positions.”

The reason Israel seized the territory is because “we have to take action against possible threats” caused by the power vacuum left by the Assad regime’s collapse, he said.

“We gave the Israeli army the order to take over these positions to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel,” the prime minister added. “This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found.”

Netanyahu said Assad’s downfall is a “historic day” for the region, adding that the the new situation in Syria “offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers.”

His announcement was delivered in Golan Heights.

Syria’s collapse, he also said, is the result of Israeli action against Iran and the Hezbollah terrorist group, which had been allied with both Iran and Assad for years. Iran and several groups loyal to Tehran had long used military bases in Syria, while Israel at times carried out air strikes against those positions over the years.

“It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression,” Netanyahu said.

Israel is extending “a hand of peace to all those beyond our border in Syria: to the Druze, to the Kurds, to the Christians, and to the Muslims who want to live in peace with Israel,” Netanyahu said. “We’re going to follow events very carefully. If we can establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that’s our desire.”

“But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel.”

Assad has not released a statement on his government’s collapse, and it’s not clear where he currently is. Russian officials have said that he departed Syria before opposition fighters took over the country, seizing the capital of Damascus on Sunday morning.

On Sunday, rebel groups and militias cooperating with terrorist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments. Thousands of people in cars and on foot congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting, witnesses said.

Leading rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani, an individual who is currently listed by the U.S. State Department as a terrorist who carried out “multiple terrorist attacks throughout Syria” over the years, said there is no room for turning back.

“The future is ours,” he said in a statement read on Syria’s state TV after his forces took over Damascus.

Underscoring the major changes, Iran’s embassy was stormed by Syrian rebels, Iran’s English-language Press TV reported.

Iran’s foreign ministry said Syria’s fate is the sole responsibility of the Syrian people and should be pursued without foreign imposition or destructive intervention.

Continue reading at the Epoch Times

END

MONDAY MORNING

SYRIA/ISRAEL

Operation clean-up: IDF targets Assad’s strategic weapons depots to prevent capture by rebels

The IDF said it was working to reduce the large stockpiles of strategic ammunition belonging to the Syrian military.

By AVI ASHKENAZIDECEMBER 9, 2024 17:33

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-832687&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241206_5f355f04495adb53fd278d08050db4e8fc4dbd33&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF launched dozens of strikes across Syria on Sunday, based on intelligence from the Military Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and Air Force Intelligence following the fall of the Assad regime.

The IDF said it was working to reduce the large stockpiles of ammunition belonging to the Syrian military.

It was one of the most significant days for the IAF since the start of the war.

According to foreign publications, the IAF carried out over a hundred attack sorties in Syria and attacked hundreds of targets in what were once the Syrian army’s weapons depots. The operations were commanded from the air force’s bunker by Air Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar.

Hitting depots and stopping repos

According to publications in Syria, the Air Force initially attacked the anti-aircraft batteries left behind by Assad’s forces, who had retreated from the rebels. The Air Force sought to clear the ground of any threat to the planes from the very beginning of the operation, and within a short time, the Air Force was granted complete freedom of action in the skies of Syria. 

The goal was to hit weapons depots that included surface-to-surface missiles, anti-tank missile depots, tanks, heavy artillery, and other large weapons depots.

Israel fears that weapons will reach militias linked to ISIS or Hezbollah.

The Air Force also struck border crossings between Syria and Lebanon after detecting the movement from Syria to Lebanon.

At the same time, according to Lebanese and Syrian reports, the air force attacked a convoy of one hundred vehicles, some of them armored, that crossed the border from Syria into Lebanon.

According to the reports, this was a convoy of Hezbollah forces that had withdrawn from the town of Al Qusayr in the Shiite region of Syria back to Lebanon after the city of Homs and other towns in the region fell into the hands of the rebels.

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It was also reported that Israel bombed the scientific research center in Damascus, where chemical weapons and ballistic missile programs were developed.

Later today at noon, Syria reported that “Israel carried out two attacks on the military airports in Al-Maza and Khalahla.”

Apparently, “strategic” weapons were destroyed so that they would not fall into the hands of the rebels. The Russian Sputnik news agency reported that “the Israeli air force attacked all military airports in Damascus and its suburbs and in the southern region.”

Two hours later, according to Syrian reports, Israel carried out a wave of attacks on Damascus. Reuters noted that “Israel bombed the scientific research center in Damascus where chemical weapons and ballistic missile programs are managed.”

END

ISRAEL LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH

IDF announces four soldiers killed in southern Lebanon

The four served in the 9263rd Battalion of the 226th Brigade.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 9, 2024 12:23Updated: DECEMBER 9, 2024 13:52

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-832648&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241206_5f355f04495adb53fd278d08050db4e8fc4dbd33&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Four soldiers were killed in combat in southern Lebanon, the IDF announced on Monday. 

The four soldiers were Major (res.) Evgeny Zinershain, 43, from Zichron Ya’acov; Captain (res.) Sagi Ya’akov Rubinshtein, 31, from Lavi; Staff-Sergeant-Major (res.) Binyamin Destaw Negose, 28, from Bet Shemesh; and Sergeant-Major (Res.) Erez Ben Efraim, 25, from Ramat Gan. 

The four served in the 9263rd Battalion of the 226th Brigade.

Troops of the 226th Brigade are positioned in southern Lebanon as part of the 60-day period included in the ceasefire with Lebanon.  According to Israeli media reports, while conducting searches in the area, the troops entered an underground space in which weaponry was hidden, as a result of which an explosion occurred, killing the four soldiers. 

According to the reports, the IDF was investigating the incident. 

Soldiers killed since beginning of war

According to the IDF‘s tally, the deaths of Maj. (res.) Zinershain, Capt. (res.) Rubinshtein, St.-Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Negose and Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Ben Efraim, raises the total of soldiers killed on or since October 7 of last year to 813. 

END

this is what scares me: we have 20 different factions in Syria right now with different ideologies. Now one group is stating that they will be gunning for Jerusalem.

(Times of Israel)

Footage shows Syrian rebels in Damascus vowing: ‘From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza’

By ToI Staff

Islamist rebels make a statement from a mosque in Damascus, in footage circulating on social media on December 8, 2024. (Screenshot, used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

Footage from a mosque in Damascus aired by Hebrew media shows Syrian rebels vowing to march on Jerusalem, a day after a stunning opposition advance took over the capital, ending the Assad family’s five decades of iron rule.

“This is the land of Islam, this is Damascus, the Muslim stronghold. From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza, patience,” vows an Islamist rebel spokesman surrounded by a group of gunmen who respond with cries of “Allahu akbar! (“God is greatest” in Arabic)

It is not clear which rebel group the fighters represent.

Syrian rebels promise to conquer Jerusalem pic.twitter.com/6Q15YyPvDy

— mikhæl (@officialxkathir) December 9, 2024

The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the strongest rebel group, has tried to reassure minorities that he will not interfere with them and the international community that he opposes Islamist attacks abroad. In Aleppo, which the rebels captured a week ago, there have not been reports of reprisals.

The IDF seized control of the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, yesterday, in what it said was a defensive and temporary measure, given the chaos in the country following the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

ROBERT H TO US:

Roscosmos unveils boosted power plan for Oreshnik missile

“Roscosmos states that it can enhance the power of the Oreshnik missile at the request of the Ministry of Defense, it underscores a chilling capability and a deliberate tactical move.”The reality is that this system can be altered to either be a shorter ballistic missile or longer range. It all depends on the number of warheads or whether Kinetic energy at Mach 10 suffices to accomplish the objective. So imagine where this goes. Just the other day the Russians demonstrated shorter range hypersonic missiles in the eastern Mediterranean. This too was a warning to the US naval forces. Much like the US naval forces are finding it difficult to deal with the Houthi with their missiles. They cannot withstand Russian naval vessels unleashing lethal hypersonic missiles that cannot be stopped. These short range singular warhead missiles are also Mach 10. Perhaps further demonstrations of Oreshnik with live warheads is necessary to understand. Time will tell. 

The other day I wrote about Escalation Dominance which is clearly now a real feather in Russia’s cap. Use of such missiles makes NUCLEAR passé as an ultimate threat weapon upon nations. WHY? 

The First Nation to use nukes in today’s world will lose all creditability on a global stage becoming a pariah! This is the real punch delivered by Russia to Neocons. To use nukes upon Russia or some other nation will make that country (s) unacceptable and shunned by all others. It would end use of the USD or EURO overnight. The hope has been to cause Russia to use nukes to stop aggression against it by the Neocons at large whether they are in Europe or America etc. If Blinken had succeeded, Russia would have been substantially reduced in image with the Global South. The game has now permanently changed, leaving the West to scramble in a technology race they are many years behind if not a decade or more. Because it more than just propulsion as it goes to metallurgical superiority. This all takes years to complete.

The other side of this demonstration is that such missiles are not governed by any Treaty. America had such a treaty and left it. This allowed this genie to be released from the lamp not understanding that Russia possessed the technology to develop such missiles. People either forgot or ignored that Russia has developed Satan II ( Sarmat) to carry Avangard warheads to the battle space that travel at MAch 25 ( 25 times the speed of sound). Not to mention that Russia has defensive missiles like the S500 or S400 to handle inbound missiles as French and British short range missiles like Scalp or Storm Shadow have learnt. 

Actually the site destroyed in Ukraine recently eliminated NATO efforts to build similar weapons in Ukraine and say these are domestically produced so their hands are clean. Russia plays the long game while Neocons are playing a wack a mo game. 

Everything has changed in State Craft of nations and indeed a new technological race is on. However it is a race where the West is outclassed and way behind and perhaps the gap is too large to overcome. This is perhaps the best chance for peace because any broad war that may occur will undoubtedly cause the West to lose without the use of nuclear weapons. 

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/05/roscosmos-unveils-boosted-power-plan-for-oreshnik-missile/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

MoA – U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia

Could it be that when  Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov called the Pentagon they actually understood that Oreshnik can and will take out NATO bases in quantity if they do not stop giving information to Ukraine ?
This system changed the calculus of warfare far beyond what the West cares to admit. 

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/ukraine-has-stopped-atacms-strikes-on-russia.html#more

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

Global Food Prices Hit 19-Month High As Upward Momentum Sparks Fears Of Stickiness

SATURDAY, DEC 07, 2024 – 08:45 AM

The global benchmark for food commodity prices rose in November, reaching its highest level since April 2023. The increase was driven primarily by a surge in vegetable oil prices. What’s particularly concerning is that global food prices have resumed an upward trajectory this year, climbing steadily since the first quarter.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of globally traded foods, averaged 127.5 in November—up 5.7% from a year ago but still 20.4% below its record high in March 2022.

The biggest driver of the overall index was the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index, which jumped 7.5% in November versus October. This marked its second notable increase in two months and a 32% rise compared to the same month one year ago

While the FAO Dairy Price Index moved marginally higher, the other sub-indexes posted declines in November.

Here’s the breakdown of all FAO sub-indexes:

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 7.5 percent in November from October, marking its second large increase in two months and 32 percent higher than its year-earlier level. Global palm oil prices climbed further amid concerns about lower-than-expected output due to excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia. World soyoil prices rose on global import demand, while rapeseed and sunflower oil quotations increased as tightening global supply prospects affected their respective markets.

The FAO Dairy Price Index maintained its upward trajectory in November, increasing by 0.6 percent from October, driven by rebounding global import demand for whole milk powder. Butter prices reached a new record level amid strong demand and tight inventories in Western Europe, while cheese prices rose due to limited export availabilities.

The other sub-indexes posted declines in November. The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped by 2.7 percent, down 8.0 percent below a year earlier. Global wheat prices declined due to weaker international import demand and increased supplies from the ongoing harvests in the Southern Hemisphere. World maize prices remained stable as strong domestic demand in Brazil and Mexico’s demand for supplies from the United States of America were offset by favorable weather in South America, reduced demand for Ukrainian supplies and seasonal pressure from the ongoing U.S. harvest. The FAO All-Rice Price Index declined by 4.0 percent in November, driven by increased market competition, harvest pressures and currency fluctuations.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 2.4 percent from October, impacted by the start of the crushing season in India and Thailand and eased concerns over next year’s sugarcane crop prospects in Brazil, where recent rains have improved soil moisture.

The FAO Meat Price Index decreased by 0.8 percent in November, due mainly to lower quotations for pig meat in the European Union, reflecting abundant supplies and persistently subdued global and domestic demand. World ovine and poultry meat prices fell slightly, while international bovine meat quotations remained stable, with higher Brazilian export prices offset by lower Australia prices.

Readers have been well-informed this year about global food inflation re-accelerating. We said in June…

This was followed by a big jump in global food prices in September. 

Global food prices hitting 19-month highs in November is momentum going in the wrong direction for consumers. This also shows how food prices are very sticky.

END

ROBERT H

Liz Churchill on X: “Buckle up, Dr, Fauci and Bill Gates…you’re both GOING TO PRISON. The Court has ordered the FDA to produce an additional ONE MILLION PAGES of their Pfizer ‘Covid Vaccine’ documents. https://t.co/V54r5UaDu4” / X
Class action lawyers were waiting for this

https://x.com/liz_churchill10/status/1865138115314159880

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

After “cringe” broadcast, DC anchor Leon Harris “steps away”; UK: rocker Jamie Morrison rushed to hospital just before show; Monty Don in hospital, cancels shows; IT: Laura Pausini cancels shows

S. Korea: 2NE1 halts show “due to health concerns”; AU: Sum 41 cancels farewell tour due to frontman Deryck Whibley’s “ongoing battle with pneumonia”

Mark Crispin MillerDec 9

READ IN APP

UNITED STATES

NBC4 Washington acknowledges anchor Leon Harris, 63, ‘appeared unwell’ after cringe broadcast, ‘stepping away’ for health reasons

December 2, 2024

NBC4 Washington acknowledged Monday that veteran anchor Leon Harris “appeared unwell” when he struggled through a news segment last week—while announcing he was “stepping away” for health reasons. The well-known broadcaster raised eyebrows on Thanksgiving when he stumbled over his words and awkwardly hesitated at times while delivering local news. Shortly after the tough-to-watch performance, NBC4 meteorologist Ryan Miller claimed the 63-year-old Harris, who used to work for CNN, was “fine”—in response to the network receiving calls from worried fans. On Monday, the network changed its tune when updating viewers. “Last week, Leon [Harris] appeared unwell while anchoring News4 at 6. Leon will be stepping away from the anchor desk to focus on health issues,” NBC4 said in a statement. It’s unclear what Harris’ health issues are or if and when he could return. A rep for NBC declined further comment Monday night.

Link

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Upgrade to paid

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UNITED KINGDOM

British rock band drummer rushed to hospital minutes before he’s due onstage

November 27, 2024

British rock band drummer Jamie Morrison [41, right] has been rushed to hospital minutes before he was set to take the stage. The Stereophonics star, who is also a drummer in 86TVs, was expected to perform at Rescue Rooms in Nottingham. 86TVs official account issued a statement to fans, which read: “We had quite a dramatic day yesterday when, minutes before doors opened in Nottingham, Jamie was rushed into hospital. He is still in there and has been strongly advised by doctors to not attempt to do the shows this week.” The band were nearing the end of their 2024 tour, with dates remaining in Manchester, Bristol, London, Cambridge and Leeds scheduled up until December 1. But they have announced to fans that the tour had ended early today.

Link

Monty Don in hospital due to medical emergency as string of dates cancelled

November 27, 2024

Monty Don has been rushed to hospital with a mystery illness. The 69-year-old Gardeners’ World star was forced to cancel a string of gigs around the country after being admitted to A&E when his health took a turn for the worse on Friday afternoon. Though the gardening expert hasn’t revealed exactly what was wrong with him, it was bad enough to keep him in hospital over the weekend, where he said he was “on drips and the rest of it.” He has since been discharged from hospital and spent the last few days recuperating at home. In a video posted to Instagram, he apologised to fans for having to cancel his upcoming talks in Exeter, Truro, Bath and Nottingham.

Link

ITALY

Forced to postpone her concert: Laura Pausini: “I woke up not feeling good, started heavy treatments”

November 21, 2024

Laura Pausini was forced to postpone the concert in Livorno scheduled for November 21. For days the singer has been dealing with a bad flu “holding out”, as she explains, in a post shared on social media. Now, however, she is forced to stop to better treat herself: “I’m so sorry, I held out and did everything they advised me to do, but this flu is really tough and I have to stop for a few days”, she writes in the caption accompanying two images, in one of which she appears while she is doing aerosol therapy. The concert was postponed to December 23.

No age reported.

Link

SOUTH KOREA

2NE1’s Park Bom didn’t finish Manila concert due to health concerns

November 18, 2024

Park Bom [40], a member of the K-pop girl group 2NE1, experienced health issues that caused her to leave the stage during the second day of the group’s back-to-back concerts in Manila. YG Entertainment, the group’s agency, shared a statement via local concert producer Live Nation Philippines’ Instagram Stories. It explained that the K-pop idol was unable to return to the stage due to “health-related issues” despite receiving emergency medical attention on-site. “Despite receiving emergency medical attention on-site, her condition did not improve, and unfortunately, she was unable to return to return to the stage,” the statement read.

Link

AUSTRALIA

Sum 41 Cancels Australian Farewell Shows Due to Deryck Whibley’s Health

December 5, 2024

Sum 41 is currently out on the road for their farewell tour, though Australia is sadly going to miss out. According to a statement from Sum 41, the band has cancelled their Australian shows—including a headlining spot at the Good Things Festival—due to vocalist and guitarist Deryck Whibley’s ongoing battle with pneumonia. “It is with deep sadness and regret that we announce our 2024 Australian tour is unable to proceed,” wrote Sum 41. “Under the guidance and direction of multiple Australian doctors, it’s clear that Deryck is too unwell to perform. We understand and appreciate your disappointment—we’re gutted too.” Whibley has sadly had his bouts with pneumonia before, which sounded pretty scary. We wish Whibley all the best with his health and look forward to seeing the band wrap up their career safely. Sum 41 is still set to play their final shows in Canada this upcoming January.

Link

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If you like “News from Underground” (or hate it, but get something out of it), please read this post.

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Fauci, why would Biden pardon Fauci? What could Fauci have done wrong to warrant a pardon? word is one is coming & would be for all past crimes & ones he cannot remember? who will pardon Biden?

What this demon did to us in COVID with the OWS lockdowns, the deadly Malone Bourla Bancel et al. mRNA gene injection, what he did to gays denying them Bactrim over deadly AZT, he is a criminal

Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 6

READ IN APP

Will Clyburn be pardoned?

The pardon power was not to be used this way as devised by the Founding Fathers…it is being abused for political reasons, both sides. A pardon is not only for the person but must benefit the nation…that is the test. Of each pardon.

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You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.

If you wish to give a donation to help me, you can at:

Zelle:

sr7283@gmail.com

EVOL NEWS

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Speaker Johnson Calls to Defund Planned Parenthood and PBSHouse Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has announced his plans to defund abortion giant Planned Parenthood and taxpayer-funded “news” network PBS.READ MORE

Pelosi Forced Nadler to Drop Out of Race for Democrat Leadership of House Judiciary CommitteeRep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) reportedly dropped out of the race to become the Democrats’ ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee due to pressure from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).READ MORE

Democrats Blocked from Releasing Ethics Report on Matt GaetzThe House voted against a move by the Democrats to release an ethics report on former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL).READ MORE

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FBI Launches Investigation into Missing Hannah Kobayashi over Green Card ScamIn another bizarre twist to the ever-shifting story, missing Hawaii woman Hannah Kobayashi has now become the target of an FBI investigation into a green card scam.READ MORE

Democrat Rep Crockett Compares Meeting Musk & Ramaswamy to Visiting Jan 6 Defendants in JailRep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) has compared meeting with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to discuss their new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to visiting Jan. 6 defendants in jail.READ MORE

Daniel Penny Jury Deadlocked on Manslaughter ChargeJurors in the trial for U.S. Marine veteran Daniel Penny have revealed that they are deadlocked on the manslaughter verdict.READ MORE

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SLAY NEWS

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Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch Steps Aside from Environmental Regulation CaseSupreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch is stepping aside from an upcoming case about environmental regulation.READ MORE

Speaker Johnson Blocks Aid to Ukraine for Remainder of Biden’s PresidencyHouse Speaker Mike Jonhson (R-LA) says he will block lame-duck President Joe Biden from sending any more taxpayer-funded aid to Ukraine for the remainder of his presidency.READ MORE

American YouTuber Feared Dead After Kidnapping in PhilippinesAmerican YouTuber Elliot Eastman is feared dead after he was reportedly kidnapped in the Philippines.READ MORE

Corporate Media Outraged over Trump’s Threat to Shake Up White House Briefing RoomCorporate media outlets are expressing fear and outrage over President Donald Trump’s threat to shake up the White House press briefing room.READ MORE

Actress Dead After Consuming Frog Venom for ‘Toxic Cleansing’ at Spiritual RetreatMexican actress Marcela Alcázar Rodríguez has died after she consumed poisonous Amazonian frog venom during a spiritual retreat.READ MORE

Jonathan Turley: Fani Willis Suffered a ‘Large Blow’ in Her Anti-Trump RICO CaseLegal scholar Professor Jonathan Turley has declared that Georgia’s Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has just suffered a “large blow” in her politically motivated RICO case against President Donald Trump.READ MORE

Democrat Sen John Fetterman: Trump’s ‘Hush Money’ Case Was ‘Politically Motivated,’ He Should Be PardonedDemocrat Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) has once again gone against the grain of his party’s establishment regarding the “politically motivated” cases against President Donald Trump.READ MORE

Ex-Dem Operative: ‘Democrats Deserve to Lose Again’ If They Run ‘Pretty Boy’ Gavin Newsom in 2028A former Democratic Party operative has declared that the “Democrats deserve to lose again” in the 2028 presidential election if they choose to run California Governor Gavin Newsom as the nominee.READ MORE

Police Release New Photos Showing UnitedHealthcare CEO Killer’s FacePolice in New York have released new images of the suspected killer who gunned down UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in Midtown Manhattan on Tuesday.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

WATCH: Sen Fetterman says Trump should be pardoned on The ViewYou’re not going to agree with everything Senator Fetterman says in this clip from The View, but he does call the trial against President Trump in New York ‘politically motivated’ and suggests Joe Biden should pardon him. He says this in response to questions from Joy Behar, who had to be screaming at him on the inside: Sen. John Fetterman …READ THE FULL REPORT

UnitedHealthcare CEO Shooter Unmasked in New PhotosNYPD released two new photos of the UnitedHealthCare CEO’s shooter. UnitedHealthCare CEO Brian Thompson was shot in the chest Wednesday morning outside the Hilton hotel in Midtown Manhattan in what is believed to be a targeted attack. Thompson, 50, arrived before 7 am for a conference when he was shot at multiple times by a masked man who police say …READ THE FULL REPORT

The List: Here’s Who Biden Is Eyeing for More Pardons as Jan 20 and Justice Draw NearAccording to a report by Politico on Wednesday, the Biden administration “is discussing preemptive pardons for those in Trump’s crosshairs.” This includes, according to the report, “the extraordinary step of handing out blanket pardons to those who’ve committed no crimes.” (That Politico is willing to acknowledge, anyway.) The reason, officially, is because Trump’s nominee for FBI director, Kash Patel, once …READ THE FULL REPORT

Watch: Screaming Fight Between GOP Rep, Secret Service Director at Trump Assassination Attempt HearingThe House was holding a hearing on Thursday on the Trump assassination attempts. They were questioning acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX) was questioning Rowe about the coverage, and he ripped Rowe for waiting days before going to Butler, Pennsylvania, after the first Trump assassination attempt occurred there in July. Fallon then raised the coverage of …READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Picks Popular Fox News Contributor for Key PostPresident-elect Donald Trump announced Wednesday that Monica Crowley, a conservative commentator and former Treasury official, will serve as Ambassador, Assistant Secretary of State, and Chief of Protocol. The role places Crowley at the center of planning major international events during Trump’s second term, including the nation’s 250th anniversary in 2026. Trump made the announcement on his social media platform, Truth …READ THE FULL REPORT

Adam Schiff Officially Resigns from Congress Effective December 8Serial liar and Trump-Russia collusion hoaxer Adam Schiff officially resigned from Congress effective Sunday after more than two decades in the US House of Representatives. Schiff will be sworn into the Senate on Monday after defeating Republican Steve Garvey in California. Adam Schiff is succeeding Senator Laphonza Butler. Adam Schiff officially resigns from the House effective Sunday. He’ll be sworn …READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH: Melania Trump’s full interview on Fox and FriendsSoon to be First Lady Melania Trump was on Fox and Friends this morning and this is her full interview. It’s about 15 minutes long and you can watch it below: Full interview of Melania Trump on Fox & Friends this morning pic.twitter.com/6poXYQNaD6 — Karli Bonne’  (@KarluskaP) December 6, 2024 This is a perfect post to make an open …READ THE FULL REPORT

Family Announces ‘Duck Dynasty’ Star’s Devastating Diagnosis“Duck Dynasty” star Phil Robertson has been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. On Friday’s episode of “Unashamed with the Robertson Family” podcast, Phil’s son Jase revealed the diagnosis. “Phil’s not doing well. I think I spoke on the 1000th podcast, we were trying to figure out the diagnosis, but according to the doctors, he has some sort of blood disease causing …READ THE FULL REPORT

Manslaughter Charge in Daniel Penny Case Dropped After Jury Failed to Reach VerdictUpdate: The manslaughter charge is dismissed against Penny, but the criminally negligent homicide charge remains. The jury was still deadlocked after spending all day deliberating again, per the judge’s instructions. The prosecution moved to dismiss the singular manslaughter count, hoping jurors could comprise on the criminally negligent homicide charge. The defense objected, arguing that this could be considered “coercive” toward …READ THE FULL REPORT

FBI Arrests Ultra-Liberal City Councilor for Allegedly Stealing MoneyThe City on a Hill took a bit of a stumble after local authorities closed in on one of their own with some grave charges. The FBI arrested a Boston city councilor early Friday morning at her home, according to WCVB-TV. On-site reporters noted that the arrest happened around 6 a.m., while capturing video of the arrest: EXCLUSIVE: 5 Investigates …READ THE FULL REPORT

“This is a disgrace!” – Andrew McCarthy weighs in on Judge allowing Bragg dismissal in Daniel Perry case…Andrew McCarthy weighed in on the judge allowing dismissal of the manslaughter charge in the Daniel Perry case, calling it ‘unbelievable’ and saying what Bragg and the judge are doing “is a disgrace”. McCarthy explains exactly what’s happening in the court and why it’s a travesty of justice. Via NRO: In Daniel Penny’s homicide trial, the jury has been deliberating …READ THE FULL REPORT

Insiders Reveal the Items They Found Inside Healthcare CEO’s Assassin’s Abandoned BackpackA backpack found by officers in the hunt for UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson’s killer did not contain the murder weapon, according to reports. Authorities looking for the individual responsible for gunning down Thompson in the early hours of Wednesday morning found the backpack inside Central Park on Friday. Sources have since told Bloomberg and NBC News that a jacket was …READ THE FULL REPORT

Biden Shocks with Long, Wispy Hair at White House Christmas Tree LightingPresident Biden shocked attendees at the White House’s National Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony on Thursday night when he doffed his stocking cap to reveal long, wispy locks — appearing more like a character out of Charles Dickens’ Yuletide classic than the commander-in-chief. His white, billowy hair stood on end from the wool cap’s static electricity, spooking the White House press …READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Doubles Down on His Support for Pete HegsethPresident-elect Donald Trump is doubling down on his support for his defense secretary pick, Pete Hegseth, as the media relentlessly attacks him to knock him off the nomination. During an interview with “Meet the Press” Moderator Kristen Welker, Trump reaffirmed his decision to appoint Hegseth to serve as his defense secretary under his second administration, saying that “Pete is doing …READ THE FULL REPORT

Zelensky Greets Trump in Sweatshirt and Boots: ‘Disrespectful to the American People’Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s fashion sense was ripped Saturday for the casual gear he wore to the formal reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris — but he had at least one fan in Pennsylvania. The Ukrainian leader chose a rugged black sweatshirt, black slacks and brown combat boots for both the ceremony and his meeting beforehand with President-elect …READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

Iran Appears To Be Doubling Down On A Nuclear Route In Response To Events In Syria

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 12:40 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Over the weekend, the half-century-long Assad dynasty in Syria fell. Islamists now hold Damascus. Syria can no longer be assumed to hold together as an entity. Dangerous military equipment and even chemical weapons are waiting to be seized by different sides.

As the arbitrary lines imposed by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of a century ago collapse, along with U.K. and European geopolitical influence, what new state/statelets could arise in the roiling Middle East? Backed by whom? Or will it just be chaos and civil war that destabilises the region further, perhaps even flooding Europe with millions more refugees that this time it won’t be saying “Wir schaffen das!” about?

In the bigger picture, Iran has lost another key proxy, and Hezbollah a key supply route for rearming. Russia may have permanently lost its key airbase and warm water port there, following on from its loss of control of the Black Sea, weakening it in the Middle East and Africa. In short, this is a larger setback for the ‘Axis of Resistance’ than the U.S. retreat from Afghanistan – and with the West having done as little in most respects.

Indeed, what we just saw was the mere ripple effect of Russia being tied down in Ukraine and Israel striking back vs Iran and its proxies. Those Middle East countries thinking of anyone but a US/Abraham Accords defense umbrella as protection are left with bad options and none.

As a result, reports also have it that Iran appears to be doubling down on a nuclear route in response; are Russia, North Korea, and China are prepared to help there? If so, what will the West do about it?

Syria may seem far removed from normal business and markets, but again this represents a staggering geopolitical chess move; one that opens up what was flagged as The Great Game of Global Trade as far back as 2017 to new offensive strategy even before the U.S. gets serious about economic statecraft and realpolitik again – which it will. (As one speaker at the Reagan National Defence Forum just put it, US enemies “should go to bed afraid and wake up afraid.”)

Indeed, as the U.S. psyches itself up for Trump 2.0, anyone peeking at the fall of Assad should be saying “Oh!” Especially if they are bearish the U.S. and the dollar.

On a more immediate note for markets, US stocks hit fresh all-time highs on Friday as the November non-farm payrolls report set the scene for another 25bp cut from the Fed next week. The S&P500 gained 0.25% to 6,090 and the NASDAQ added 0.81%. The Dow closed down 0.28%, dragged down by Chevron and United Health Care, whose CEO was recently murdered in New York.

US 10y Treasury yields fell 2.3bps to 4.15% on Friday, while 2-year yields fell by 4bps to result in a small bull-flattening of the Treasury curve. Brent crude was down by 1.4% following the agreement struck between OPEC+ producers to extend production cuts through to September next year.

Employment grew by 227,000 in November according the establishment survey. That was broadly in-line with expectations, and a net upward revision of 56,000 over September and October added some extra stodge for traders to digest.

The household survey painted a less rosy picture. There, the unemployment rate lifted to 4.2% (despite a two tick fall in participation) and the employment change was negative 355,000. According to the household survey, employment growth has been averaging -3,800/month in 2024 while growth in the labor force has averaged +75k/month over the same period.

Obviously, this raises further questions about which report to believe. Other labor market indicators released over the course of last week didn’t provide a definitive signal. The JOLTS survey showed a healthy lift in job ads, but the ADP employment survey showed employment growth slowing to 146,000 in November. That’s a touch below the 155,000 monthly average this year.

Weekly initial jobless claims printed 9,000 higher than expected, Challenger job cuts ticked a little higher in November and the employment sub-index of the ISM manufacturing report lifted 3.7pts to 48.1 while the equivalent services employment index fell from 53 to 51.5.

The overall impression seems to be a labor market that is continuing to soften, but hasn’t fallen off a cliff. Given the lagged nature of labor market indicators, and the cracks that are showing in the household survey, it makes sense that the FOMC would seek to take their policy rate closer to neutral sooner rather than later to maximise optionality. Perhaps this is especially the case given rich valuations evident in equity markets, the uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy next year and the looming wave of debt refinancing that is due to hit in 2025 & 2026.

Consequently, market implied probability of a Fed rate cut next week has risen from ~70% to ~85%, despite recent signs of stickiness in inflation that we will get an update on later this week, and the consensus view that the Trump platform is going to be inflationary inside the United States.

END

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BRICS

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0567 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 150.83 UP 1.093 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2762 UP .0037

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4116 DOWN 0.0022 (CDN DOLLAR UP 22 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.54 PTS OR 0.05%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 548.24 OR 2.76%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.03%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 548.24 PTS OR 2.76%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.54 PTS OR 0.05%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.33%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 69.33 PTS OR 0.68%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2656.50

silver:$31.81

USA dollar index early MONDAY  morning: 105.69 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS FROM  FRIDAY’s CLOSE.

MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.502% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.039% DOWN 0 AND 4/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.744 DOWN 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.183 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1105 UP 1 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :   MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0577 UP .0011 OR 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 150.93 UP 1.163 OR YEN IS DOWN 116 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.3070 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0034 OR 34 BASIS pts  to 1.4108

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.2684 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2680)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.039

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from FRIDAY at  4.184% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.374 UP 4 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.120 UP 3  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2672.15

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.20

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 43.47 PTS OR 0.52%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 38.65 OR 0.19%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 53.26 PTS OR 0.72%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 60.50 OR 0.39%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 189.67 OR 0.55%

WTI Oil price  68.40 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  72.16 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  100.30 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND  61/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1105 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3070 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.029 UP 1 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.855 UP 1 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0548 DOWN 0.0016 OR 16 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2745 UP 0.0022 OR 22 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.2705 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.041

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.20 UP 1.51 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4172 UP 0.0030 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 30 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 68.16

Brent OIL:  71.51

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.196

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.390%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT  4.127

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.055 UP 5 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.865 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 105.88 UP 15 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.82 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  99.99 UP 0 AND  99/100 roubles

GOLD  2,658.45 3:30 PM

SILVER: 31.81 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 240.59 PTS OR 0.54%

NASDAQ DOWN 181.43 PTS OR 0.84%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.16 UP 1.39 PTS OR 10.88%

GLD: $245.36 UP 2.91 OR 0.99%

SLV/ $28.98 UP 0.72 OR 2.58%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 81.56 PTS OR 0.32%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING

Momo Massacred: Bullion & Black Gold Bid As Stocks, Bonds, & Crypto Tank

MORNING TRADING/

END

II USA DATA

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Reducing Government Spending Is Key To Reduce Inflation

Monday, Dec 09, 2024 – 01:20 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Markets and economists are beginning to recognize that a serious rationalization of spending is the only way to prevent a debt crisis and reduce inflation in the United States. In the latest estimates published by the Treasury, the accumulated deficit between 2024 and 2034 would reach $14 trillion. Considering the path of uncontrolled public debt and rising fiscal irresponsibility reached over the past four years, many feared a debt crisis looming. In a period of peace and recovery, a 6.4% budget deficit indicated the lowest economic growth, adjusted for debt increases since the 1930s.

Market participants now appear relieved and are discounting a declining deficit as well as a stronger currency.

Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Governments create inflation by issuing constantly depreciating currencies, eroding purchasing power through massive spending, and subsequently eroding productivity and the real value of wages and savings. Therefore, strengthening the currency, restoring confidence in public finances, and reducing inflation are all part of the same policy: curbing government deficit spending.

The addition of Ron Paul to the Department of Government Efficiency, under the leadership of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, is encouraging. Mr. Paul knows the inefficiencies and excesses of government better than most politicians. All three of them have a clear objective: cut spending wherever it is possible. When economists say it is impossible to reduce government expenditures, they usually use aggregated items. However, a large part of non-interest discretionary spending goes to more than 1,350 subsidy programs.

With a budget nearly $2 trillion larger than in 2019, there is significant room for reduction.

Optimism among market participants is obvious. The S&P 500 has reached an all-time high, and this time, interestingly, it’s not due to expectations of increased currency printing and deficit spending but rather the opposite. Previously, markets viewed a stronger US dollar as a negative factor, but this time, it has proven to be the opposite. The dollar index is up 4.6% this year, and the S&P 500 has soared 27%. Since the U.S. election result, the dollar index has increased by 1.5%, while the S&P 500 has experienced a surge of over 2.5%.

Inflation expectations for November should not surprise anyone who looks at the still uncontrolled deficit. According to Bloomberg Economics, core inflation should remain high in November, at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. We expect a 0.2% rise in headline inflation, bringing the year-over-year rate up to 2.7% from 2.6%.

The expected level of inflation is intolerable in a country that enjoys global technology leadership and record energy independence, two disinflationary factors. Therefore, inflation is not only stubborn but unjustified.

Some economists warn against a strong dollar because they want a weak currency to disguise unsustainable fiscal imbalances. However, there is no strong economy with a weak currency.

A depreciated currency is not a tool of economic growth, but a policy supported by cronyism and bureaucrats aimed at subsidizing their inefficiencies at the expense of citizens’ real wages and deposit savings.

For the first time in years, we may see a real supply-side plan. This administration deserves some trust, as the alternative would have led the United States into an economic catastrophe.

The new administration must understand that the only way to maintain and strengthen the U.S. dollar’s reserve status is to curb deficit spending and reduce debt while accelerating productive economic growth and private investment. Argentina’s Milei has demonstrated that eliminating deficit spending can significantly reduce inflation. The United States needs to implement drastic measures to eliminate the bloated expenditure path of the past four years and restore confidence in the solvency of the public sector.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING

KING REPORT

The King Report December 9, 2024 Issue 7386

Independent View of the News

The November Employment Report had mixed and contradictory metrics.  The Establishment Survey (NFP) was modestly stronger than expected; Wages were ‘hot;’ and the Household Survey was soft.   November NFP 227k, 220k expected (revised higher on Thursday); 2-month Net Revision +56k, -112k expected; Manufacturing +22k, 30k expected; Unemployment Rate 4.2%, 4.1% prior & expected; Wages +0.4% m/m & 4.0% y/y, 0.3% and 3.9% were consensus; Workweek 34.3 as expected & prior; Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5%, 62.6% prior, 62.7% consensus https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm   Household Survey Highlights Employed -355k; Unemployed +161k; Civilian Labor Force -193k; Not in Labor Force +368k https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm   Establishment Survey Highlights Retail -28k; Health care & social assistance +72.3k (Health Care +53.6); Leisure and hospitality +53k (Accommodation & food services +34.6k), Government +33k (Federal -2k); Transportation equipment manufacturing +32k  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm   Seasonal Adjustment for November 2023 -1.33m; SA for November 2024 -1.372m https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm   Birth/Death Model Jobs: November 2023 +7k; November 2024 +5k  https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm   @TruNorthAdvice: Foreign born population up 1,295,000(which include illegal immigrants).  Employed up +401,000 YoY.  Native born population up 346,000. Employed YoY -1,094,000. https://t.co/neHQutMwH2     YoY loss of fulltime jobs is 1,342,000; Part time jobs increased +634,000 https://t.co/tlt3gJlmVs   @RealEJAntoni: The economy is still hemorrhaging full-time jobs, which fell 111k in Nov and are down over 1.3 million in the last year, while part-time jobs are up over 600k – does this look like a strong labor market? https://t.co/zoyZLATzL6   Reuters: Employment growth in October was also likely curtailed by a shorter collection period of responses to the survey of establishments from which payrolls are derived. The response rate for the establishment survey was 47.4%, the lowest since January 1991 and well below the 69.2% average for October in the past five years. The collection period for the responses was only 10 days, on the lower end of the normal 10-16 days…     Returning Boeing factory workers and those from another smaller aerospace company are expected to add about 38,000 jobs to payrolls in November. A post-storm rebound of around 60,000-65,000 jobs is anticipated…  https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-payrolls-seen-up-november-boeing-workers-return-hurricanes-over-2024-12-06/   BBG’s @AnnaEconomist: The almost 400k decline in household survey employment came from private sector. The 785k boost in government employment from September which we trace to election has not yet reversed. That is to come.   @FinanceLancelot: Those 785k jobs the government created for the election terminate in December. @EPBResearch: The unemployment rate is calculated from the Household Survey… Since August 2023, the household survey shows private employment is down 1.3 million while government employment is up 944k. What happens if there is a government hiring freeze? https://t.co/y0uH5yu1z8   @wesbury: Using only what you learned in college economics, please explain how, after nearly $4 trillion of deficit spending (which supposedly has a multiplier effect), the underemployment rate has climbed from 6.5% in Dec 2022 to 7.8% in Nov 2024?  My take: Keynes was wrong. https://t.co/loh5RNhl4w   University of Michigan Sentiment 74, 71.8 prior, 73.2 expectedCurrent Conditions 77.7, 63.9 prior, 65.2 expectedExpectations 71.6, 76.9 prior, 77.7 expected1-year Inflation 2.9%, 2.6% prior, 2.7% expected5-10-year Inflation 3.1% as expected, 3.2% prior  Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Friday, “Solid growth, labor market is near full employment, but core inflation still elevated. GDP momentum is strong and continues its positive momentum. Retail sales continuing to rise early in the 4Q. Unemployment remains at historically low levels, well below my estimate of full employment. Labor market remains tight. Inflation is uncomfortably above our 2% goal. Upside risks to inflation remain prominent…I continue to see greater risk to the price stability side of our mandate.” (Bowman signaling a dissenting vote, like last time, on cutting the Fed Funds Rate)   Bowman also said lowering rates too quickly could reignite inflation.   Fed’s Bowman, worried by inflation, calls for caution on rate cuts     Fed’s Bowman wants cautious, gradual rate cut path     Bowman worried inflation is too high, questions tightness of policy     Jobs data hard to interpret, she says “We’ve seen progress in lowering inflation but that progress seems to have stalled this year,” Bowman said. Meanwhile, the job market is at “full employment” and the data describing the state of hiring is “increasingly difficult to interpret” and showing signs of “unreliability” in the face of “measurement challenges and data revisions.” https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bowman-worried-by-inflation-calls-caution-rate-cuts-2024-12-06/   Chinese Stocks Jump Ahead of Key Meeting on Stimulus Bets Chinese stocks jumped to the highest level in two weeks as some traders positioned for further stimulus to be released at a key policy meeting next week … The CSI 300 Index rose 1.3% on Friday, led by gains in financial and technology shares. The benchmark for onshore shares reached its highest level since Nov. 21. A gauge of Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong advanced 1.8%.     Investors are betting that Chinese authorities will offer fresh measures to support growth at the Central Economic Work Conference, helping revive a rally that has run out of steam. The nation’s top leaders are likely to map out economic targets and stimulus plans for 2025 during the annual closed-door meeting starting Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported earlier… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-stocks-jump-ahead-key-041216440.html   Once again, Fangs rallied robustly while the general stock market declined.  Broadcom soared 5.31%. It announced on Thursday a cutting-edge 3.5D eXtreme Dimension in Package platform technology.   ESZs traded moderately lower, but in a range from the Nikkei opening until they sank to a daily low of 6076.00 on the release of the November Employment Report.   However, traders are over-the-top bullish; so, they avidly bought the dip.  ESZs soared to 6100.75 at 8:38 ET.  ESZs then traded in an 8-handle range until they exploded higher at the NYSE opening.  The mixed and contradictory November Employment Report allayed fears that US job market was strengthening.   ESZs hit a daily high of 6111.00 at 9:58 ET.  Alas, traders were too ebullient and too long for the expected Friday Afternoon Rally.  ESZs did a slow rollover until they broke lower at 10:50 ET.  ESZs sank until they hit 6090.50 at 12:42 ET.  The eagerly anticipated Friday Afternoon Rally then commenced.  ESZs rebounded to 6103.25 at 13:22 ET.  Did we mention that traders were too bullish?   ESZs retreated to 6090.00 at 14:30.  The Friday Afternoon Rally then commenced.   ESZs plodded to 6096.00 at 14:47 ET.  After several attempts to blow through 6096.00 failed, ESZs retrenched to 6093.50 at 14:49 ET.  A modest last-hour rally took ESZs to 6101.25 at 15:58 ET.  ESZs were 6098.25 at 16 ET.   US October Consumer Credit +$19.239B, +$10.0B consensus, $3.209B prior.   ‘Hawk Tuah Girl’ Haliey Welch launches meme coin — which almost immediately crashes Welch, 22, skyrocketed to overnight fame earlier this year after an off-color (gross) comment that she made during an X-rated interview in Nashville went viral on social media. She has capitalized on her viral moment by launching a merchandise line and a podcast.     The “HAWK” crypto “memecoin” hit a $490 million market cap shortly after its launch late Wednesday,.. Within three hours, the coin had plunged 91% and carried a valuation of just $41.7 million… (A crystal-clear sign of an historic bubble: 22-yr old girl issued crypto coin, idiotic ‘investors’ pour almost a half billion dollars into it and it crashes within hours!) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hawk-tuah-girl-haliey-welch-165859618.html   @NorthmanTrader: Fed: Our policy is restrictive.  Fartcoin: $204M market cap https://t.co/AAnFp0lL62   @KobeissiLetter: There are now ~$14 worth of assets in US leveraged long ETFs for every $1 in leveraged short funds, a new record. The long/short leveraged ETF asset spread has DOUBLED in just a few months. It has also exceeded the previous record of a $13 to $1 ratio set in December 2021, according to Sentimentrader data. At the same time, US leveraged ETF assets under management hit a record ~$120 BILLION.  Investors have rarely ever been so bullish.  https://t.co/81vabPcRpj   @charliebilello: 1. Stocks: all-time highs; 2. Home Prices: all-time highs; 3. Bitcoin: all-time highs 4. National Debt: all-time highs; 5. Core CPI Inflation: >3% for 42 straight months, longest run of high inflation since early 1990s; 6. Fed: cutting rates again in 2 weeks   On NBC’s Meet the Press, Trump said he will not remove PE Powell as Fed CEO before term ends.   It is reprehensible and disgusting that MSM articles and reports are excusing, even promoting, the assassination of the UnitedHealth CEO.   The Shooting That Was Inevitable – Our political system is breaking down. Now it has killed. As ProPublica reported in 2023, medical bills cost McNaughton nearly $2 million a year, and UnitedHealthcare had flagged his case for review as a “high dollar account.”…     As one popular post on X put it, “Today, we mourn the death of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, gunned down…. wait, I’m sorry — today we mourn the deaths of the 68,000 Americans who needlessly die each year so that insurance company execs like Brian Thompson can become multimillionaires.”… https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/unitedhealthcare-shooting-inevitable.html   BBC: Killing of insurance CEO reveals simmering anger at US health system https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2eeeep0npo   NY Magazine: The People Cheering the UnitedHealthcare CEO Shooting – A cold-blooded murder has become, to many, an opportunity to vent.   Elements of the media have made the easy segue from ‘Trump is Hitler; so, anything to stop him and his followers is permitted,’ to the assassination of corporate executives that we dislike is excusable.   Dem @SenFettermanPA: No shortage of s#*tty takes on the 2024 election or on this assassination. The public execution of an innocent man and father of two is indefensible, not “inevitable.” Condoning and cheering this on says more about YOU than the situation of health insurance.   Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied robustly; USZs were +9/32 at the NYSE close.   Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA declined moderately; Gold rallied moderately.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the US stock market forming some type of top?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6090.07 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6099.97; 6079.98   Feds using banks to surveil Americans’ financial data without warrants, House Judiciary says Federal law enforcement has been manipulating the Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) system to gain access to Americans’ financial information without warrants or probable cause, the House Judiciary Committee said Friday…     The committee said in the report that the FBI “has manipulated” the SAR’s filing process to treat financial institutions “as de facto arms of law enforcement, issuing ‘requests’ without legal process, that amount to demands for information related to certain persons or activities it considers ‘suspicious.'” https://www.foxnews.com/politics/feds-using-banks-surveil-americans-financial-data-without-warrants-house-judiciary-says   Iran ‘dramatically’ increasing enrichment to near bomb grade -IAEA chief Iran is “dramatically” increasing the amount of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, that it is able to produce, the watchdog’s chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters in an interview… He added that it was set to rise to “seven, eight times more, maybe, or even more” than the previous rate of 5-7 kg a month… https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-dramatically-increasing-enrichment-near-bomb-grade-iaea-chief-2024-12-06/   Iran launches rocket with heaviest-ever payload into space amid heightened concern over nuclear program https://t.co/8N5hWJM3Hr   Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flees Damascus as rebels move into country’s capital: report https://t.co/6a8xkJNQtd   Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez, came to power in 1971.  The Assads ruled Syria for 54 years.  The old ‘Axis of Evil’ (Iran and Syria) is over.  Experts opine that Syria will be partitioned into 3 or 4 states.   The Russian State News Agency, TASS, reports Bashar al-Assad and his family are in Moscow.   Iran and Russia have lost enormous power and face in the Middle East.  Turkey and Israel have ascended.   Israel moved tanks into the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria near the Golan to ensure that Syrian rebels do not attack and reportedly to destroy weapons depots including suspect chemical arms.   There were also reports that Israel bombed Hezbollah forces that fled Syria and Hamas forces in Gaza.   @Osint613: The Israeli Air Force describes one of the heaviest attack days in Syria since the Yom Kippur War. Dozens of aircraft carried out nearly 100 strikes against Syrian army targets in rapid succession, focusing primarily on weapons, Assad’s Air Force, including aircraft.   @realDonaldTrump on Sat.: Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!     (On Sunday) Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!   @sentdefender: Two Syrian Sources have told Reuters that there is a “Very High Probability” that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was Killed last night in a Plane Crash near the City of Homs, with his Aircraft believed to have been Shot Down after leaving Damascus International Airport. (Or is this a misdirection play to keep Assad safe in exile?)   @jconricus: The irony. Hamas, by launching the massacre on Israel on October 7 started the chain reaction that led to Assad’s fall. They thought Israel would crumble and fall, but it’s the Iranian dominoes that are falling. And this isn’t the end of that chain reaction.  (Iran regime change coming?)   Biden forgets who he is talking about just seconds after saying US journalist in Syria is alive https://t.co/gmGPVvtwJY   Biden said the US carried out dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and locations in Syria to prevent ISIS from taking advantage of the chaos in Syria.  The Big Guy said the US will keep troops in Syria to fight ISIS and the US will send humanitarian aid to Syria.   The U.S. is collaborating with Middle Eastern countries to secure and destroy chemical weapons held by the Assad regime – Axios   Today – Traders will play for the Monday Rally despite the unsettling geopolitical environment and other negative fundamentals.  It’s been foolish to fight the bubble.  However, signs of exhaustion and extreme valuations are proliferating.  The DJIA has traded sideways sine November 15.  For December (last week’s 5 sessions) the NY Fang+ Index is +5.98%.  A handful of trading sardines leading while the troops retreat is a sign of topping action.  PS – The Fed is in blackout period for December 17-18 FOMC.   ESZs are -2.50; NQZs are -15.25; and USZs are +1/32 at 20:30 ET.   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5873; 100-day MA: 5700; 150-day MA: 5599; 200-day MA: 5482 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,205; 100-day MA: 41,965; 150-day MA: 41,063; 200-day MA: 40,481 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (6090.27 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5304.59 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5705.24 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5988.44 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6067.52 triggers a sell signal   Trump says he will work with Democrats to come up with a plan to help ‘Dreamers’ stay in US Dreamers are undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children and have stayed in the U.S. for much of their lives.  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/trump-says-he-will-work-democrats-come-plan-help-dreamers-stay-us   DJT also said he wants to end ‘birthright’ US citizenship.  So, this could be part of a Dreamer deal.   Trump details sweeping changes he’ll carry out on day one and beyond in an exclusive interview Trump vowed to launch a mass deportation effort, impose tariffs and pardon many convicted in the Jan. 6 attack in an interview with “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker…    T rump also said he will not raise the age for government programs like Social Security and Medicare and will not make cuts to them as part of spending reduction efforts led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy… Trump spoke in a calm, measured tone and at times sparred with Welker when she fact-checked him… He’s heard from Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post: “We’re having dinner,” he said…     Trump made clear he believes he’s been wronged, but he also sounded a conciliatory note, saying he will not appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Biden…     He said he would consider raising the federal minimum wage, which has been $7.25 an hour since 2009, but would like to consult with the nation’s governors… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-details-sweeping-changes-ll-carry-day-one-exclusive-interview-rcna182858   @EricLDaugh: NBC’s Kristen Welker tries to get Trump to admit to being the reason for “division” – fails miserably.  WELKER: The country is divided. Will you concede the 2020 election?   TRUMP: “No. Why would I do that? Let me tell you – you say the country is deeply divided? I’m not the president. Joe Biden’s the president. When you say it’s deeply divided – I agree. He has been a divider.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1865785273042272559   When asked about ‘breaking up families’ when he orders massive deportations, Trump repeated what border czar Tom Homan stated.  ‘You don’t want to break up families.  So, you deport them as families.’   Biden will leave office as the ‘worst president’ in modern history, according to voters in devastating poll – Some 44 percent placed him as one of the worst two, while only 14 percent placed him in the top two, giving him a net score of 30 points underwater. That was worse than Nixon, who came out with negative 25, and Donald Trump, with negative 15…  https://trib.al/n9QQmDt   Biden shocks with long, wispy hair at White House Christmas tree lighting: ‘Ghosts of corruption past, present and future’ https://trib.al/5xFVFu0   FDA may outlaw food dyes ‘within weeks’: Bombshell move would affect candy, soda and cakes, revolutionize American diets (Should have been done decades ago!) https://trib.al/fzgtPd3

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG

Democrat Party Going Extinct – Martin Armstrong

Democrat Party Going Extinct – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On December 7, 2024 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis84 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with some important new predictions.  But first, long before the 2024 Election, Armstrong’s Socrates computer correctly predicted a Trump landslide.  Armstrong also predicted the GOP would win the House and the Senate while the Lying Legacy Media (LLM) were telling us all how popular Kamala Harris was and how she would take it all in 2024.  Armstrong said Kamala’s real approval rating was around 10% (not 50%), and the Dems and the LLM knew it but lied anyway.  Armstrong’s Socrates computer program also predicted Joe Biden would pardon his son Hunter, even though Biden, the Dems and the LLM repeatedly told us there would be no pardon of Hunter.

This is where it get’s interesting.  Armstrong says, “You have to understand, it wasn’t for Hunter. . .  Yes, my computer (Socrates) was showing Biden would pardon Hunter, and it was basically showing the collapse in the rule of law, and this is what this is about now. . . . All the corruption started in 2014 in Ukraine. . . . By pardoning Hunter all the way back to 2014, it means he can be compelled to testify.  How much money did you get out of Ukraine?  Where did it go?  Did it go to the Big Guy? . . . . Hunter can’t be prosecuted, so he can’t claim the 5th Amendment.  He could be thrown in prison for contempt of court for refusing to testify.”

Armstrong was held in prison for a record seven years for contempt of court.  Armstrong says the law says the sentence should only have lasted 18 months.  Still, Hunter could be thrown in jail.  Armstrong says Joe will pardon many more, such as those involved in the J-6 prosecutions like Liz Cheney or people like Anthony Fauci, overseer of the CV19 bioweapon vax.  Armstrong says, “The computer has been showing, and we published these reports at our November 2024 conference, that this is most likely the final nail in the coffin for the Democrat Party. . . . The pardons will have a real detrimental impact on the Democrat Party.  It’s going to basically make the Democrat party look like a bunch of thieves and crooks. . . . The Democrat Party is going extinct.”

When asked if we are still going to war with Russia, Armstrong said, “I hate to say this, but yes, and the (Socrates) computer is never wrong.”  Armstrong fears dirty tricks, such as a false flag in Europe, that could get it going and blame the Russians for something they did not do.  They want to do this before Trump takes office.  Armstong says he is still recommending a big food supply, gold and cash.  He is also predicting that government wants to do away with paper money and do all digital so they can track everything.  Will this work?  Armstrong says no, but they are going to try anyway.

Armstrong says even though Trump is looking good here before he’s sworn in, he’s going to have a tough four years.  Armstrong says, “What I have heard is that they are planning on a major protest for his inauguration.  They want to make it so bad that he has to call out the National Guard, and then they will say, see, he’s a dictator.  I am concerned.  I do not see four years of bliss in the Trump Administration.  The computer says from 2026 on, it does not look good, particularly going into 2027 and 2028.  This may be our last election. . . . This is a war now with the Deep State.  They are not going to take this lightly. . . .They are going to try to obstruct Trump anyway they can. . . . You are taking the trough away from all the pigs, and they are not going to have anything to eat.  They are going to fight for their very lives.”

There is much more in the 1-hour and 9-minute interview.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong where he gives his analysis on Trump winning and Biden pardoning everyone for 12.7.24.

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After the Interview:

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