GOLD PRICE UP $26.65 TO $2719.40
SILVER PRICE UP $0.10 TO $31.98
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2719.65
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.99
Bitcoin morning price:$98325 UP 1876 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $101,314 UP 4865 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $5.45 TO $939.45
Palladium price; UP $15.90 TO $989.40
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3848.80 UP 27.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2132.24 UP 22.70 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,590.12UP 30.28 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE;
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,697.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/10/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/12/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 327
132 C SG AMERICAS 200
152 C DORMAN TRADING 4
190 H BMO CAPITAL 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 160
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 63
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 5
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 91
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12
661 C JP MORGAN 20 75
661 H JP MORGAN 7
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 53 96
690 C ABN AMRO 17 22
737 C ADVANTAGE 11 18
880 C CITIGROUP 3
880 H CITIGROUP 59
905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 628 628
MONTH TO DATE: 18,152
JPMorgan stopped 82/628
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 628 NOTICES FOR 62,800 OZ 1.9533 TONNES
total notices so far: 18,152 contracts for 1,815,200 Oz (56.460 tonnes)
FOR DEC
SILVER NOTICES: 586 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2,930,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7976 for 39.88 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $26.65 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 870..79 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.10 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 469.215 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3811 CONTRACTS TO 151,096 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS EXTRA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0,08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 7137 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN IN PRICE. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS TO WHICH THEY SUCCEEDED WITH YESTERDAY’S SLIGHT SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICING.
WE HAD A MEGA HUGE 3326 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 586 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN WEDNESDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 7137 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A ZERO TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY’S COMEX SESSION. MONDAY MORNING (INSTEAD OF SATURDAY MORNING) WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF .5000 OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/ THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .66 MILLION OZ/NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS: 1.16 MILLION OZ.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX AND THAT THAT CONTINUED ON MONDAY TO NO AVAIL.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 586 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD AN EXTRA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7137 OI. CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A HUGE 3326 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK THURSDAY NIGHT (NOV 29). THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE HERE THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER BE DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! SHOCKINGLY,MONDAY MORNING DEC 9, WE HAD ANOTHER 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED. TOTAL FOR MONTH 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE ALSO HUGE 402 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 2.010 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.
// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 41.125 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 42.285 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 586 CONTRACTS)/ TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 16 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 DAYS, total 17,970 contracts: OR 89.850 MILLION OZ (2246 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 89.850 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 89.85 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE/ MAY EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ)
RESULT: WE HAD AN EXTRA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3811 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 3326 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 40.435 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2.010 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD .66 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR + .500 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK MONDAY//NEW TOTAL; 42.285 MILLION OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 42.285 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 7137 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 586 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON MONDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (586) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, PROBABLY TODAY.
WE HAD 586 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2, 930,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7227 OI CONTRACTS TO 483,346 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 71 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (7227 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $29.75 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 57.284 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY 245 CONTRACT QUE JUMP FOR 24,500 OZ ( .7620 TONNES) PLUS OUR 3 ISSUANCES OF 9.7074 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK
/NEW STANDING 67.7534 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $29.75 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 12m282 OI CONTRACTS (38.202 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 245 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (24500 OZ) ALONG WITH THE 9.77074 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH //NEW TOTAL TONNES OF DELIVERY: 67.7534.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 5055 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 482,346
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,282 CONTRACTS WITH 7227 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5055 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,282 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 2307 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5505 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 7227 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,282 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.117 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 24500 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 3 PRIOR OCCASIONS OF 9.7074 TONNES//NEW STANDING 67,7534 TONNES
//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 67.7534 TONNES
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE TUESDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS AS WE HAD A $29.75 PRICE GAIN. BUT WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2307 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///245 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 24500 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 55,540 CONTRACTS OF 5,554,000 OZ OR 172.75 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6943 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 172.75 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 172.75 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.87% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 172.75 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an ex for physical issuance for this month/maybe this time we will surpass March 22 record of 409 tonnes for the month)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3811 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,096 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 3326 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 3326 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3326 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3811 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3326 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7137 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 35.685 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.08 LOSS IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.88 PTS OR 0.29%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 156.23 PTS OR 0.77%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 4.65 OR 0.01%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .46%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2739 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2722// Oil DOWN TO 69.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.99 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7227 CONTRACTS TO 483,346 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $29.75 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS WE HAVE A STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AND WE ALSO HAD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5055). THUS A HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,282 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AND THEREFORE NO LOSS IN NET LONGS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY, BUT IT WAS IN FULL FORCE TODAY
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 202, AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING BUT VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY. BUT LOTS TODAY.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5055 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 5055 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5055 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 12,282 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5055 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7227 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $29.75 TIESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED SIZED 2307 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY WITH LAST FRIDAY’S TRADING, AND IT CONTINUED WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING, ENDING TUESDAY BUT FORECEFULLY RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (67,7534 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 58.046 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR + 1.919 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK WEDNEDAY+ 7.0108 TONNES FRIDAY NIGHT(DEC 7) /NEW TOTAL 67.7534 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $29.75/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN PRICE. WE DID HAVE LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE, TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING.
LATE 10 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES THUS ALL THREE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. (9.7074 TONNES).
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 38.202 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 24,500 OZ OR 0.7620 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD 9.7074 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK.
THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR = : 9.7074 TONNES + NORMAL GOLD TONNES STANDING OF 57.284 = DELIVERY TOTALS OF 67.7534 TONNEES
/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 67.7534 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 67.7534 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $31.10
WE HAD 731 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,282 CONTRACTS OR 1,228,200 (38.202 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 200,529 contracts: poor //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT.
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
DEC 11
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 257,208.000 OZ JPMorgan/Brinks 8,000 kilobars |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 628 notice(s) 62,800 OZ 1.9533 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 510 contracts 51000 OZ 1,5863 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 18,152 notices 1,815,200 oz 56.460 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 2 customer deposit
i) Into JPMorgan 160,755.000 oz (5,000 kilobars)’
ii) Into Brinks: 96,453.000 oz (3000 kilobars)_
total deposits 257,208.000 oz 8,000 kilobars
strictly a paper gold entry.
withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1138 contracts having LOST 177 contracts. We had
422 contracts were served on TUESDAY, so we GAINED 245 contracts or 24,500 oz underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.
JANUARY GAINED 64 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2160
FEBRUARY GAINED 6177 CONTRACTS TO 368,854 .
We had 422 contracts filed for today representing 42,200 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 20 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 628 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 82 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,152 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1138 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (628 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,866,200 OZ OR 58.046 TONNES. to which we add 9.7074 tonnes of exchange for risk/PRIOR equals 67.7534
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (18,152 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1138 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (628 x 100 oz which equals 1,866,200 oz (58.046 TONNES) + 9.7074 tonnes of ex. for risk PRIOR //new total 67.7534 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 67.7534 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,887,512.376 oz 58.71 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 18,339.010.539 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8097,306.492/// 251.86 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,241,704.087 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,209,794 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 193.15 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/17.833 million oz = 20.14% of entire inventory..
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 11. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE DEC 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | nil . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 206,859.056 oz Manfra |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 586 CONTRACT(S) (2,930,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 249 contracts (1.245 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7976 Contracts (39.880 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits
i) Into Manfra 206,859.056
total customer deposits 206,859.056 oz
We had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawal nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.615million or 43.83%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.529MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.822 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 835 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 41 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
473 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON TUESDAY SO WE HAD A HUGE 402 CONTRACT OR A 2.01 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.
JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 71 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2523
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 68 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 136
MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 898 CONTRACTS UP TO 123,261
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 586 for 2,930,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 71,773 huge// t.a.s. reduced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7976x 5,000 oz = 39.880 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (835) and the number of notices served upon today (586)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month: 7976 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(935) minus number of notices served upon today (586)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 41.125 MILLION OZ. + to which we add .66 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR// + .5000 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY MORNING//new total 42.285
New total standing: 42.285 million oz.
There are 76,529 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $26.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 870.79 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ
DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 471.812 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
Alasdair Macleod
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps fell 13% in November as debt problems grew
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-12-10 21:24 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robert Lambourne
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
The November statement of account for the Bank for International Settlements was published this week —
— and it indicates that the volume of gold swaps undertaken by the BIS fell from 93 tonnes on October 31 to 81 tonnes on November 29, a decline of 12 tonnes or 13%.
Table 1 below sets out the historical level of monthly gold swaps estimated by GATA since August 2018. As is evident from the table there is still a considerable level of gold being traded via these swaps. While gold swaps are down significantly from the 501 tonnes estimated in January 2022, the level seemingly remains quite volatile, suggesting the use of swaps to cover shorter-term trading requirements.
To repeat the point made regularly in these reports, it seems that these swaps are undertaken by the BIS for one or more of its central bank customers with the swapped gold being accounted for as being held in a BIS-registered sight account at a central bank. Given what is happening in the gold market more generally with regular central bank buying, it appears reasonable to assume that the Federal Reserve is the BIS’ customer for the swaps transactions.
The evidence strongly suggests that bullion banks are the source of this gold and that the supply comes from gold registered as being held by gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The 2023-24 annual report for the BIS —
— confirms GATA’s estimate of the bank’s gold swaps as of March 31 shown in Table 1 below: 72 tonnes.
The recently published BIS interim report for the six months to September 30 contains information that also confirms certain assumptions used to estimate the swap volumes. This includes confirmation that the BIS continued to hold 102 tonnes of its own gold. The interim report also provides strong support, via its reporting on transactions with related parties, that the swapped gold comes from bullion banks rather than central banks.
However, the BIS continues to offer no explanation for why it is undertaking gold swaps.
The BIS first reported gold swaps in its annual report for 2009-10, so gold swaps have been provided by the BIS for its customer central banks for more than 15 years. See Table 2 below for the year-end level of gold swaps reported by the BIS in its annual reports since March 2010.
* * *
Table 1 — Gold swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account
Month …. Swaps
& year … in tonnes
Nov-24 …. /81
Oct-24 …. /93
Sep-24 …. /112
Aug-24 …. /157
Jul-24 …. /148
Jun-24 …. /116
May-24 …. /109
Apr-24 …. /78
Mar-24 …. /72
Feb-24 …. /68
Jan-24 …. /117
Dec-23 …. /121
Nov-23 …./100
Oct-23 …./68
Sep-23 …./96
Aug-23 …./129
Jul-23 …. /103
Jun-23…. /87
May-23 …. /188
Apr-23 …. /135
Mar-23 …. /77
Feb-23 … /136
Jan-23 … /103
Dec-22 … /0
Nov-22 … /105
Oct-22 ….. /7
Sep-22 …../57
Aug-22 ….. /75
Jul-22 ….. /56
Jun-22 ….. /202
May-22 ….. /270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 … / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370
GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.
* * *
There seem to be no reasons to alter the assumption that the BIS is continuing to enter these swaps on behalf of the Federal Reserve. There is no evidence to suggest that any other major central bank is actively trading this much gold, and many central banks are still accumulating physical gold.
As noted above, the basic transaction that the BIS is believed to undertake is to swap dollars for gold that is transferred from a bullion bank, then to deposit this gold in a gold sight account at a central bank, presumed to be the Fed but almost certainly being the central bank that is using the BIS to execute the gold swap on its behalf.
Given the recent volatility in BIS gold swaps, it seems likely that most are of a short duration. Why a central bank needs the BIS to undertake gold swaps isn’t clear. The swaps are likely connected with short-term trading needs and perhaps are being used to aid suppression of the gold price via the futures markets.
The volatility in the volume of swaps is clear from a review of Table 1 above. Volumes of swaps in 2023 and so far in 2024 remain well below the average seen in the preceding four years, but they remain significant. The gold price decreased from $2,744 at October 31 to $2,651 at November 30 (per USAGold.com).
Using the November 30 gold price, the 81 tonnes of gold swaps outstanding via the BIS at the month-end are valued at about $6.9 billion.
So the recent trading in BIS gold swaps has high dollar value and shows that gold remains a significant monetary asset still actively traded on behalf of at least one central bank, presumably the Fed.
As ever with the BIS, it remains unlikely that more information about why it undertakes these transactions will be provided. No such information was provided in the bank’s recently published annual report, which covered the year ending March 31, 2024.
*
Summary of GATA research on gold price suppression
GATA’s research on gold price suppression indicates that an active policy of price suppression was implemented around 30 years ago and was primarily intended to hold down interest rates. A recent update on this research is provided by the presentation GATA Secretary/Sreasurer Chris Powell made in November 2024 at the New Orleans Investment Conference:
This influential report from 2005 about “Gibson’s Paradox” remains relevant and highlights work in this area by former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Lawrence Summers:
It also remains relevant to highlight the following remarks made in a speech by Summers on September 8, 1999, as reported in the book “The Wealth of Progressive Nations: The Collected Lectures of Lawrence Summers.” The remarks below are an extract of a section of the speech titled “A New Economic Paradigm.”
“Most important of all, the Clinton-Gore administration has established a new paradigm for the management of our nation’s budget, with enormous cumulative benefits for our economy and our citizens. It has become a commonplace to remark on how exceptional today’s 4.2% unemployment rate is relative to any expectation at the beginning of the decade. It is no less remarkable that today, after 8.5 years of expansion, long-term interest rates are around 2 percentage points lower than they were at its start.”
From this it is reasonable to conclude that keeping interest rates lower was considered a priority by the Clinton-Gore administration and succeeding at it was thought to be “remarkable.” While this is not proof that gold price suppression was undertaken specifically to reduce interest rates, it demonstrates that reducing interest rates was a priority for the U.S. government.
Further evidence of this priority is provided by an interview with former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin about his time working in the Clinton administration after January 1993. In answer to a question on the initial decision to prioritize federal deficit reduction, Rubin remarks: “On the other hand, if interest rates go down as a result, then that will stimulate growth, and we thought that the beneficial effect of lower interest rates would outweigh the contractionary impact of the deficit reduction”:
Hence there is plenty of evidence that keeping interest rates low was a major goal of the Clinton administration.
In the context of gold price suppression being used to reinforce efforts to reduce interest rates, the following report issued by GATA in 2007 with an analysis of the gold market by Frank Veneroso is a notable reference as it confirms that GATA’s primary assertions about gold price suppression were plausible, including under-reported sales of official gold:
Here is an excerpt from the report: “I find it extremely annoying that there is a hell of a lot of obvious evidence out there that something is happening in the gold market — that there are very large supplies coming into the market — larger than the consensus would claim — and no one is willing to discuss it.” He further notes that maybe as much as 10,000 tonnes to 16,000 tonnes of gold may have been lent out starting in the 1980s and going on into the 1990s. This extra supply of gold will have acted to suppress gold prices and resulted in double counting of official gold, which having been lent out, may have been used, for example, to satisfy jewelry demand.
An interesting and entirely separate point about the surprising developments in the mid-1990s with subdued interest rates and relatively low inflation has come to the attention of this writer and is set out in a wide ranging article by professor Russell Napier:
Within this highly informative article there is a reference to the impact caused by Chinese exports of manufactured goods since 1994 on the rate of inflation around the world. Professor Napier considers that these goods were sold at below economic value for many years and were responsible for the change toward a lower rate of inflation for most of the next 30 years in the developed world.
It seems quite a coincidence that this impact from Chinese exports happened when gold price suppression started in earnest with plausible reasons to believe this was of an intentional effort by the U.S. authorities to suppress interest rates. This may suggest that in addition to gold price suppression there was a deliberate policy to allow China to export goods at low prices as part of the effort to reduce inflation and keep real interest rates low.
In light of the efforts to suppress gold prices, this extra dimension of support for sustained lower inflation seems to this writer to provide a much more complete explanation of why this dramatic change in interest rates has happened in the last 30 years.
*
More recent trends in U.S. federal government deficits
The remarks by Rubin and Summers on the U.S. government’s priorities in the 1990s are reminders of how much the financial positions of Western nations have worsened since then.
The worsening trend for Western nations, especially the United States, probably reduces the appeal to the BIS of undertaking gold swaps on behalf of any central bank where a liability to return swapped gold is incurred. The trend possibly also reduces the appeal of any such swaps to the central bank or banks for which the BIS has been acting.
A report issued by GATA in 2012 is worth revisiting as it highlights the acknowledgment of gold price suppression by a former chairman of the BIS, Jelle Zijlstra, a Dutch politician, economist, and central banker. So it seems likely that BIS management understands what the swaps are being used for and why no reasons for the transactions are given:
The conundrum facing the Federal Reserve about dollar interest rates has seemingly been resolved for now with the Fed’s recent decisions to reduce rates with further cuts suggested for December and into 2025. What will happen after the Trump administration takes control is difficult to guess. A recent stream of announcements on a wide range of topics from efforts to cut federal spending by $2 trillion to the introduction of punitive tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China highlights the uncertain outlook.
The current federal government debt of $36.2 trillion, including $7.3 trillion of special debt, as of December 6 is already $0.7 trillion higher than at September 30, the end of the last fiscal year. This current trend seems unsustainable and unless there is a rapid change it seems inevitable that gold prices will rise substantially, either via a deliberate gold price reset or by a substantial decline in the market price of the dollar. Clearly at this level of debt a substantial increase in interest rates would hasten recognition that federal government finances are unsustainable.
The direction of oil prices after the election might prove to be an important influence on the timing of a gold price reset, if it is being considered. A strong recovery in oil prices would be damaging.
The report at the following link, which reviews the possible connection between hedge funds’ basis trades in U.S. Treasuries and the Fed’s program of quantitative tightening in 2022, could be read as another sign of how difficult it is to find purchasers of U.S. Treasuries at current prices:
Perhaps the easiest way to picture this apparent correlation is to view this chart:
This further link contains a commentary on the apparent enrichment of certain hedge funds and the individuals involved as a result of the apparent support from the Fed to the hedge fund basis trade used to effect “quantitative tightening”:
It also seems that the incentives for foreigners to own U.S. Treasuries are diminishing as efforts to confiscate Russian assets appear to be moving forward. Saudi Arabia has apparently warned that any such confiscation may cause it to sell its holding of U.S. Treasuries.
Again, it seems appropriate to note that a report titled “Living with High Public Debt,” authored by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen, was published in August 2023 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This report reinforces just how difficult it is to handle high federal government debt with spending far in excess of revenue.
The report can be found at the Kansas City Fed’s internet site and at GATA’s:
Here is an excerpt from the conclusions:
“Looking forward, the challenges are daunting. Given aging populations, governments will have to find additional finance for healthcare and pensions. They will have to finance spending on defense, climate change abatement, and adaptation, and the digital transition. A growing number of low-income countries are already in debt distress.
“Living with high public debt therefore means avoiding steps that make a bad situation worse. This means minimizing unproductive public spending. It means targeting social transfers as a way of limiting pressures on the expenditure side. It means limiting contingent liabilities by, inter alia, adequately regulating banks and avoiding recapitalization costs.
“It means contemplating tax increases where revenues are low by international standards. It means further developing financial markets where markets are underdeveloped and where a diverse population of local investors in debt securities is absent. It means embracing legal and procedural changes that streamline and speed restructuring for countries whose debts are unsustainable.
“This modest medicine does not make for a happy diagnosis. But it makes for a realistic one.”
In the circumstances, vividly described in the report, it seems unsurprising that the price of gold has increased substantially so far in 2024. The report offers yet more reason to question whether gold swaps undertaken via the BIS, probably on behalf of the Fed, are being used as part of a mechanism to suppress the dollar gold price and may even represent double-counted gold supposedly held by exchange-traded funds.
*
Debt problems in China and other countries
In recent reports the International Monetary Fund has highlighted the high level of non-financial debt in many countries, and data recently reported by the BIS for non-financial debt to gross domestic product include as of Q2 2024: Japan 394%, France 319%, China 292%, U.S. 249%, UK 229%, Germany 200%, and India 183%. Both the IMF and the BIS are clearly signaling their concerns over the debt overhang.
Recent reports in Western media on efforts by the Chinese government to stimulate its economy, especially its property sector, are relevant to supporters of gold. At least one experienced observer of the Chinese economy believes that China needs to devalue its debt and possibly achieve this by way of a gold price revaluation. Even last week saw new reports on efforts to refinance the debt of local authorities in China.
Professor Russell Napier, the author of the article cited above, published in American Affairs, includes his insights into the debt situation in China and his view that much of this debt needs to be written off. An unsaid consequence of his conclusion is that gold will rise in price in yuan (and dollars) as a result of this debt write-off, which could in theory be achieved by a gold price reset by the Chinese government. Professor Napier is the author of “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98” and a well-known investment adviser and economic historian.
In recent YouTube videos Napier goes further and suggests in the video that Chinese President Xi Jinping has the ability to decide when to trigger a gold price reset and that it will change global trade dramatically. A decision by China to devalue the yuan versus gold would almost certainly force the United States to follow and would probably lead to bans or extremely high tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States.
If Professor Napier is correct, then any attempts by President-elect Donald Trump to introduce substantial tariffs on Chinese exports might trigger a decision by the Chinese to reset the yuan gold price, since one of the major adverse consequences of a unilateral Chinese decision to trigger a gold price reset — namely the loss of their export trade to the U.S. — would have already happened.
So the price of gold could soar if Trump carries out what he has said he will do. There is plenty of recent evidence that the Chinese intend to take measures against the U.S. if punitive tariffs are introduced on imports from China. Efforts are being made by the Chinese to stop exports of certain minerals such as gallium to the U.S. and to diversify their purchases of soybeans, formerly sourced mainly from the U.S. Also, China is seeking to adopt sanctions similar to those used by the U.S. on third parties to stop them rerouting materials to the U.S.
If Trump acts more cautiously, then maybe an agreed joint U.S.-China gold price reset might occur in 2025. The chances that the U.S. federal deficit will continue to be willingly funded by foreigners in 2025 seem really bleak, not only because of the possible adverse implications of Trump’s tax plans and the likely difficulty in cutting federal government spending by the target of $2 trillion, but especially as hedge funds have already been used and seemingly are really holding Treasuries only as a stopgap for maybe two years, a term that will start running out later in 2025.
In the opinion of this writer, Napier’s ideas on a new financial system are credible, especially if two separate spheres of influence develop based around China and the U.S.
*
Historical context of the gold swaps
The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published on July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.
The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.
The swap transactions potentially created a mismatch at the BIS, which may have ended up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.
The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the bank’s establishment 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:
http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf
A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:
The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines suggest this may be changing.
As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in the name of the BIS in gold sight accounts at major central banks, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.
If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosure made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.
Table 2 below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements have regularly been large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant.
Table 2 Year-End BIS Gold Swap Volumes
March 2010: 346 tonnes
March 2011: 409 tonnes
March 2012: 355 tonnes
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes
March 2022: 358 tonnes
March 2023: 77 tonnes
March 2024: 72 tonnes
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market and about U.S. government debt.
END
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/
END
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 202
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: beef
US Cattle Crisis Worsens As Nation’s Herd Size Continues Alarming Side Into Abyss
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024 – 09:20 PM
America’s beef cow inventory has steadily declined over the last half-decade, reaching 64-year lows and signaling a deepening crisis across the cattle industry. As the cattle crisis worsens, consumers should brace for higher ground beef prices.
The shrinking beef supply has pushed the nation’s herd size to its smallest level since 1961. With severe droughts, high interest rates, costly feed prices, sliding farm income, surging farm debt, and a shifting consumer preference toward cheaper chicken, struggling ranchers have been culling heifers, preventing any meaningful recovery in the number of calves necessary to expand the nation’s herds.
As Bloomberg reports, the nation’s cattle crisis is set to worsen with new pressures: first, President-elect Trump’s anticipated tariff war 2.0, which is expected to tighten domestic beef supplies, and second, immigration reform.
“All of the things he is talking about have potentially negative consequences more so than anything positive,” Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, told Bloomberg, adding, “Our fate’s pretty well determined in the cattle industry in the U.S. for the next two to four years” – and it’s not looking good.”
In February, the United States Department of Agriculture projected that the cattle herd could begin rebuilding by 2025. However, that timeline has since shifted to 2027. The reason is primarily because of high interest rates and poor pasture conditions in the Midwest.
“Even as the beef industry has experienced periods of growth over the past decades, the animal count has dropped almost 40% since a peak in 1975. During the current downcycle, which started in 2020, the herd has been shrinking at the fastest pace since the big farm crisis of the 1980s,” Bloomberg noted.
If Trump introduces new tariffs, it could disrupt the flow of imported beef, further tightening domestic supplies. However, as Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA—a group representing cow-calf producers nationwide—explained, this move will drive up beef prices while encouraging investment in rebuilding the nation’s cattle herd.
Bullard said, “Tariffs will provide our industry an opportunity to invest in expansion and to begin rebuilding the herd that has been shrinking at an alarming rate,” adding, “Over the long term, consumers are going to be better served because we will no longer have such a dependency on imported products.”
America’s beef supply relies heavily on small producers raising calves, but with herd levels at half-century lows—combined with new factors like tariffs and immigration reform that could drive prices even higher—consumers need to recognize that food inflation will likely remain sticky through the decade’s end.
Earlier this year, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King told the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference that he wasn’t even sure when the nation’s collapsing herd size would reverse.
end
COFFEE
Bean Mania: Arabica Coffee Hits New High, Cocoa Jumps To 7-Month High
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024 – 08:30 PM
Cash-strapped US consumers should be deeply concerned about rising food inflation. It’s ‘stickier’ than ever as coffee and cocoa prices surge.
Arabica coffee futures in New York hit a record high on Tuesday, driven by ongoing fears of a global supply crunch. Prices surged nearly 5% during the session, reaching their highest level in data dating back to 1972. At that time, coffee prices soared due to the disastrous Black Frost, which devastated Brazilian yields.
“Concerns over Brazil’s 2025-26 arabica crop grew this week,” said Steve Pollard, an analyst at Marex Group, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Pollard added, “Recent crop tours point to production in the mid-30 million bags,” which would result in yet another supply shortfall.
Major agricultural trader Volcafe Ltd. recently slashed Brazil’s arabica production outlook due to severe drought conditions. The trader projected that South America would produce just 34.4 million bags of arabica coffee in the next growing season, down 11 million bags from the prior September estimate, according to Bloomberg.
Volcafe also forecasted a global coffee production shortfall of 8.5 million bags for the 2025-26 season, marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
“We are currently experiencing a strong fundamental phase in the coffee market, which we expect to sustain the elevated price levels,” said Viktoria Kuszak, a research associate at Sucden Financial.
In the cocoa market, the most active contract in New York jumped to the highest level in seven months over West Africa’s dismal production outlook, yet another crop experiencing dwindling global supplies.
The most-active cocoa contract has jumped 58% to $10,500 per metric ton since late October, the highest since June. This comes as adverse weather dents supplies from top growers in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
“The outlook for the mid-crops have deteriorated in the past weeks,” said Steve Wateridge, head of research at TRS by Expana, adding, “The weather conditions in next three months will determine whether we see further deterioration.”
Broad food price trends via the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of globally traded foods, show that prices have alarmingly re-accelerated this year.
Back to the cocoa market: The new surge in bean prices certainly sits well with famed commodity trader Pierre Andurand’s bullish thesis earlier this year about worsening global supplies.
The big takeaway is that food inflation is very sticky despite the government saying otherwise.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.88 PTS OR 0.29%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 156.23 PTS OR 0.77%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 4.65 OR 0.01%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .46%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2739 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2722// Oil DOWN TO 69.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.99 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2739
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2722
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 9.88 PTS OR 0.29%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 156.23 PTS OR 0.77%
2. Nikkei closed UP 4.95 PTS OR 0.01%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106.33 EURO FALLS TO 1.0502 DOWN 30 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.057 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.65…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.1220 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.209 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.765
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 2.905
3j Gold at $2695.90 /Silver at: 31.68 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 5 22/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 108.26
3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.65 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.057% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8832 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9274 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.251 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.437 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.172 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.87…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.3875 UP 3 PTS
10 YR FRANCE YIELD: 2.8763DOWN 1 BASIS PTS FRENCH YIELD/
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.059 UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.861 UP 0 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat Ahead Of CPI, Dollar Surges On China Devaluation Speculation
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 08:22 AM
US equity futures are flat ahead of the CPI report that will determine if the Fed cuts rates next week. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%, with the Mag 7 mostly higher led by NVDA, GOOG and TSLA. Bond yields and the dollar are also higher after a Reuters report that Chinese leaders are considering allowing their currency to weaken as they brace for higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency. In commodities oil is up +1.0%, and gold is trading just shy of $2700. The main macro focus will be CPI at 8.30am ET (see our preview here). We will also have 10y auction at 1pm ET and ADBE earnings after the close.
Among individual stock movers, Walgreens Boots Alliance slipped 3.5% in US premarket trading, ceding some of the previous day’s 28% surge, as analysts questioned the probability of Sycamore Partners acquiring the pharmacy chain. Videogame retailer GameStop was flat after posting a surprise profit. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Acelyrin (SLRN) tumbles 16% after the biotech company said its Phase 2b/3 trial of izokibep to treat a form of eye inflammation failed to meet targets.
- Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) drops 14% after the entertainment and dining chain reported weaker-than-expected 3Q results and said CEO Chris Morris is resigning.
- General Motors (GM) gains 1% after the automaker said it will stop funding the robotaxi development of its Cruise unit and combine both Cruise and GM technical teams into a single effort for autonomous driving.
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) declines 7% after the air-taxi startup entered into an equity distribution agreement.
- Macy’s (M) falls 8% after trimming its profit outlook after concluding its investigation into an employee plot to hide millions of dollars in expenses.
- Patterson Cos. (PDCO) soars 33% as Patient Square Capital agreed to buy the dental and animal health firm for $31.35 a share in cash.
- Stitch Fix (SFIX) climbs 21% after the online personal-styling service raised its year revenue outlook.
One day after we reminded readers that a yuan devaluation is looming…
… Reuters reported that Chinese leaders are considering allowing their currency to weaken as they brace for higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency, sending the dollar higher. The report saying Beijing could let the yuan depreciate, jolted markets that were in a lull ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data print and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. It sent the the offshore yuan as much as 0.5% lower, while Bloomberg’s dollar index gained 0.3% to touch a two-week high. The move spilled over globally, triggering drops in China proxies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as in key emerging-market currencies like the South African rand.
“Last time we had the trade war, we saw a big weakening in the yuan,” said Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd. “That made sense at the time, it would make sense again if Trump comes up with tariffs again.”
Hetal Mehta, head of economic research at St James Place Management, said the dollar’s strength – it has risen 5% already this quarter – is unsurprising, given the “anticipation of tariffs, or just the pricing out of some of the rate cuts that people thought the Fed would implement.”
Meanwhile, while swap markets almost fully expect a quarter-point US rate reduction next week, they have trimmed bets on easing by the Fed over this cycle. Mehta also said that after a series of record highs on the S&P 500, traders will likely wait for details of Trump’s agenda before embarking on more significant moves. “Some of the recent strength is related to forthcoming tax cuts and what that would mean for corporate profits, so markets now want to wait and see that delivered,” she said.
European stocks are little changed as retail shares provide a drag after Inditex reported slower sales growth at the outset of the crucial holiday shopping season. US equity futures edge higher. Zalando SE slumped after the German retailer agreed to buy rival About You Holding SE, offering a premium of about 67% to Tuesday’s closing price. Inditex SA, the owner of the Zara fashion brand, fell on slower sales growth. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Publicis and RTL shares rise as JPMorgan upgrades both to overweight. Broker suggests a “pick and mix” approach to the European media sector to navigate an uneven macro picture heading into 2025
- Saipem gains as much as 4.5% after JPMorgan names the European oil services company its pick for 2025
- Man Group gains as much as 4.5% as Canaccord double-upgrades the hedge fund firm to buy from sell, removing the only negative analyst view, with retreat since the stock’s year-to-date high in April seen as an opportunity
- Inditex shares dropped as much as 7.7% in Madrid trading after Zara owner reported nine-month Ebit that missed estimates, with analysts noting trading update for the 4Q was also lighter than expected
- Siemens Energy shares drop as much as 8.7%, the biggest intraday fall since August, after competitor GE Vernova hosted an investor day that Morgan Stanley said created a negative read-across
- TUI shares drop as much as 8.5%, the biggest intraday decline since Aug. 5, after the travel company reported full-year results. Analysts flagged the slowdown in winter bookings from the pre-close update in September
- Zalando shares fall as much as 9.2% in early trading, the steepest drop since June, as analysts flagged the About You takeover deal will weigh on the balance sheet and reduce the chances of cash being returned to shareholders
- Carl Zeiss Meditec shares fall as much as 14%, after the German health-care supplier reported lower-than-expected earnings for the year and provided FY25 guidance which suggests downgrades to consensus estimates, according to analysts
- CVC Capital shares drop as much as 3.8% after shareholders in the investment management firm sold shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. The stock slipped to as low as €21.32 this morning, below the €21.54 price the shares were offloaded at
- Alzchem shares fall as much as 9.4% to €53 after LIVIA Corporate Development SE and HDI Vier CE informed the German specialty chemicals firm that they intend to sell a total of as many as 250,000 shares in a private placement
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, weighed by a slump in Hong Kong and Chinese shares as traders tempered expectations for further stimulus from a key policy meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.3%, with TSMC, Meituan and Tencent among the biggest drags on the gauge. The regional benchmark has moved in a tight range of less than 0.5% for the past five sessions. Shares in Hong Kong and mainland China ended the day lower after fluctuations. The moves suggest investors are bracing for potential disappointment from the Central Economic Work Conference, expected this week, despite vows of support made by the Politburo earlier. A major bright spot in the region was South Korea, where stocks extended gains to a second day following a selloff sparked by political turmoil. The impeachment case against President Yoon Suk Yeol could have “a little bit more serious impact to the overall economy” than previous impeachments given current macro weakness, said Ethan Seo, head of global markets at BNP Paribas in Seoul. Still, the South Korean stock market should stabilize if lawmakers pass the impeachment bill this weekend, while a delay would mean the turmoil “even getting worse.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, gaining for a fourth session to its highest level in two weeks ahead of US inflation data, boosted by weakness in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The USD/JPY pair climbs 0.5% to 152.65, pushing the yen to a two-week low, after Bloomberg reported BOJ officials see little cost to waiting before raising interest rates. The report also suggested some officials are not against a rate hike at the December meeting if it is proposed. The yuan falls 0.4% on a report that Beijing is considering allowing the currency to weaken next year in response to the threat of a trade war with the US. The USD/CNH gains 0.2% to 7.2733 and Aussie, kiwi dollars follow yuan lower. USD/JPY rallies 0.5% to 152.79 after whipsawing on BOJ report. The loonie was little changed ahead of Bank of Canada decision, USD/CAD steady at 1.4182. Swaps markets pricing some 44bp — or around 80% of a half-point cut — from BOC. The EUR/USD falls 0.2% to 1.0508; GBP/USD down 0.2% to 1.2741
In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, lagging slightly vs core European rates, which are mostly little changed. WTI crude oil futures are up more than 1%, supporting higher Treasury yields ahead of the $39 billion 10-year reopening during US afternoon. US yields are higher by 1bp to 2bp across maturities with curve slightly flatter. 10-year around 4.24% is higher by ~1.5bp, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.7bp and 0.5bp. The treasury auction cycle continues with 10-year reopening, second of this week’s three coupon sales; Tuesday’s 3-year note tailed slightly, by 0.1bp
In commodities, Brent crude futures rose after a Bloomberg News report that the Biden administration is considering new sanctions on Russia’s oil trade, a move that could tighten the market. WTI oil is up 1% to $69.30 a barrel. Spot gold adds $5. Bitcoin climbs back above $98,000.
The US economic data calendar includes November CPI (8:30am) and Federal budget balance (2pm). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of their Dec. 18 Fed policy announcement
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,051.75
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $72.91/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,692.86
US Dollar Index up 0.23% to 106.65
Top Overnight News
- China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 as they brace for higher U.S. trade tariffs as Donald Trump returns to the White House. The contemplated move reflects China’s recognition that it needs bigger economic stimulus to combat Trump’s threats of punitive trade measures. RTRS
- Bank of Japan officials see only a small cost to waiting before raising interest rates while still being open to a hike next week depending on data and market developments. Even if the BOJ decides to wait until January, authorities see it as not entailing a huge cost because signs point to little risk that inflation might overshoot. BBG
- US President-elect Trump’s Treasury pick Bessent said Fed Chair Powell can serve the remainder of his term, via CNBC. Trump said he picked FTC Commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the FTC. Trump said he picked Ron Johnson to serve as the United States Ambassador to Mexico.
- US President Biden is to hit Chinese cleantech imports with more tariffs, in an effort to protect US manufacturing, according to the FT.
- Biden will dramatically increase the US tariffs on cleantech imports from China (Chinese polysilicon and solar wafers will see their tariff double to 50%). FT
- Japan’s PPI for Nov overshoots the Street, coming in at +3.7% (vs. the consensus of +3.4% and up from +3.6% in Oct), providing fresh momentum for the BOJ to hike rates ahead of its meeting next week. BBG
- Biden considering a fresh round of sanctions and restrictions on Russia’s oil industry in an effort to weaken Putin’s war on Ukraine ahead of Trump taking power. BBG
- South Korea’s opposition Democratic Party is preparing to file another impeachment motion that has a better chance of passing. President Yoon Suk Yeol will probably fight any impeachment bid and appears to have rejected stepping down. BBG
- Trump selected Andrew Ferguson to replace Lina Khan as head of the FTC. While a second Trump administration may be friendlier to mergers and acquisitions, it is likely to keep up the aggressive pursuit of antitrust cases targeting tech giants. BBG
- CPI Preview: We expect a 0.28% increase in November core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.27% (vs. 3.3% consensus). We expect a 0.28% increase in November headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), reflecting 0.25% higher food prices and 0.3% higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.20% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent and with a 0.20% increase in core PCE in November. GIR
- New hedge fund launches are on track to log one of its toughest years in over 20 years. A total of 123 firms opened up shop this year through September — poised for the smallest annual tally of new entrants since at least 2000. BBG
APAC stocks traded mixed following a soft US handover as participants brace for the US CPI data, although Chinese markets continued to benefit from the easing in China’s overall monetary policy stance. ASX 200 was on a softer footing with almost all of its sectors in the red, whilst IT lagged following a similar sectoral performance stateside. Nikkei 225 was subdued but within narrow parameters whilst Japanese PPI topped expectations, with eyes on next week’s BoJ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both initially traded firmer in a continuation of the optimism from Politburo on Monday revising its overall monetary policy stance. Upside for the indices however were modest and capped ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, whilst the China A50 faded earlier gains and dipped into the red and was later joined by the Hang Seng.
Top Asian News
- China’s watchdog orders PDD (PDD) to fix controversial refunds policy, according to Bloomberg
- RBA’s Hauser says Australian inflation could move in either direction. The data needs to come in line with forecasts for the central bank to change policySays there is no particular trigger figure for inflation for the RBA to ease policy.
- Japan auto worker’s union calls for monthly pay increase of more than JPY 12,000 in annual labour talks next year.
- China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms, via Reuters citing sources.
- South Korea Finance Ministry said will make ample responses to curb any excessive volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
- South Korea’s economy and finance minister spoke to US Treasury Secretary Yellen, according to Reuters.
- South Korean police raid presidential office over martial law, according to Yonhap.
- Japan reportedly plans a 4% corporate tax surtax from 2026 to fund defence, according to Kyodo.
- Monetary Authority of Singapore survey: Singapore 2024 GDP growth at 3.6% (vs prev. 2.6%); 2024 core inflation seen at 2.9% (vs prev. 3.0%).
- ADB trimmed developing Asia 2024 growth forecast to 4.9% (prev. 5.0%), trimmed 2025 to 4.8% (prev. 4.9%); says growth outlook faces downside risks from the magnitude and speed of expected US policy shifts under Trump.
European bourses opened almost entirely in the red, but now display more of a mixed picture as sentiment gradually improves in the complex. Price action has been modest in nature, with traders mindful of the looming US CPI. European sectors opened with a strong negative bias, but sentiment has improved a touch as the morning progressed to display a mixed picture. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile alongside Media. Retail is by far and away the clear underperformer in Europe, hit by a double whammy of losses from Inditex and Zalando. US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming slightly, attempting to pare back some of the losses seen in the prior session.
Top European News
- Scholz to Request Confidence Vote Triggering Snap Election
- Mizuho Boosts European Bond Trading Team With New Hires
- Danske Bank Markets Hires Head of Fixed Income from SEB
- Russia’s Africa Strategy at Risk After Syria Regime Collapse
- Publicis Gains; JPMorgan Says ‘Pick and Mix’ in Europe Media
- HSBC’s CEO Eyes $3 Billion in Potential Savings From Overhaul
FX
- The USD was lent a helping hand in early trade following a Reuters sources report that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms. This sent DXY to a new high for the week at 106.68, stopping shy of last week’s MTD high at 106.73 (which has since been breached in recent trade). Today’s sees the release of November CPI data which is expected to see a +0.3% M/M outturn for core CPI.
- EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.05 following a pick-up in the USD after reports of China looking to devalue the yuan next year. EUR/USD went as low as 1.0489 but stopped shy of the December low at 1.0460.
- JPY was firmer vs. the USD during APAC hours following two consecutive sessions of losses as markets digested above forecast Japanese PPI data; the Yuan reporting also supported. Thereafter, JPY gained further ground vs. the USD after a Bloomberg sources piece noted that the BoJ sees little cost in waiting for the next rate hike. This move was then subsequently reversed after markets digested another aspect of the report which noted that the BoJ sees less risk of a softer JPY boosting inflation (i.e less pressure to intervene). USD/JPY is back above its 200DMA at 152.00 with a session peak at 152.65.
- GBP is softer vs. the USD with UK catalysts on the light side. Friday’s monthly GDP print unlikely to be a gamechanger for the BoE. Cable went as high as 1.2781 overnight before returning to within yesterday’s 1.2724-1.2778 range.
- CNH was knocked lower in early European trade after source reporting via Reuters noted that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms.
- CAD is steady vs. the USD ahead of today’s BoC rate decision. The BoC is widely expected to cut rates with the consensus looking for another 50bps reduction, but with a risk of a smaller 25bp move.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1843 vs exp. 7. 2379 (prev. 7.1876)
- RBI likely selling USD to limit INR fall, according to Reuters citing traders.
- BoJ reportedly sees little cost in waiting for the next rate hike, according to Bloomberg; cites current prices. Next rate increase is seen as a “matter of time”. View is that there is less risk of a soft JPY boosting inflation.
Fixed Income
- USTs are back in negative territory after support from a Reuters report noting that China could be willing to let the Yuan devalue next year, proved to be short-lived. Mar’25 contract is currently tucked within yesterday’s 110.26-111.09 range, ahead of US CPI.
- Today is seeing a minor reversal of the recent outperformance of French paper over its German counterpart. European paper was dealt some minor support in early trade following the aforementioned Reuters source report on China. Bunds are back above 136 and towards the top end of yesterday’s 135.75-136.26 trading range.
- Gilts are reversing some of yesterday’s selling which didn’t appear to be driven by an obvious catalyst at the time. Mar’25 Gilt is currently towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 95.13-73 trading range. Modest pressure was seen in Gilt prices following the 2034 auction, given the relatively wider tail.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.25% 2034 Gilt: b/c 2.87x (prev. 2.81x), avg yield 4.332% (prev. 4.475%) & tail 1.3bps (prev. 0.8bps).
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are on a firmer footing, and has pared initial pressure which was sparked by Reuters reporting, which noted that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms. Overnight trade saw oil prices propped up as traders digested reports that the US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office.
- Spot gold spent most of the European morning in modest negative territory, but has since climbed into the green. XAU has traded in a tight range of USD 2675.89-2704.35/oz range.
- Base metals traded on a firmer footing throughout overnight trade, with gains driven by the ongoing optimism surrounding China’s easing of overall monetary policy stance. Into the European morning, prices began to dive lower on the aforementioned Yuan-related reports.
- Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.499mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate +2.452mln (exp. +1.4mln), Gasoline +2.852mln (exp. +1.7mln), Cushing -1.517mln (prev. +0.1mln).
- El Paso Natural Gas Co. declares initial force majeure – Line 1200, according to Reuters.
- Goldman Sachs pushes back on the argument that gold cannot rally to USD 3,000/oz by end-2025 “in a world where the dollar stays stronger for longer.” “Fewer Fed cuts are a key downside risk to our USD 3,000 end-2025 gold price forecast (not a stronger dollar).”.
- UBS forecasts Brent rising to USD 80/bbl and WTI rising to USD 75/bbl in 2025. UBS says for 2025, it holds a constructive natgas price outlook (see NatGas at USD 3.50/mmbtu in June 2025, rising to USD 3.60/mmbtu by September).
- Ukraine’s military says it struck an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region; military says the attack caused a ‘massive fire’. Attack on an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region did not affect oil transit to Europe via Ukraine, according to Reuters citing a industry source. Kazakhstan says Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia is not damaged by Ukrainian overnight strikes.
Geopolitics: Middle-East
- Sky News Arabia reports that it is monitoring the advance of Israeli tanks in the Golan.
- Two US Navy destroyers successfully defeated Houthi-launched weapons while transiting the Gulf of Aden, according to the US military.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office, according to Bloomberg.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia will “definitely be prepared to consider” another prisoner swap with the US, according to NBC.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications 5.4%, prior 2.8%
- 08:30: Nov. CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- Nov. CPI YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.6%
- Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
- Nov. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.4%
- Nov. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.4%, revised 1.1%
- 14:00: Nov. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$356b, prior -$314b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Today’s EMR contains the largest number I think I’ve ever used in this document. See if you can spot it and try to work out how many zeros in this number without looking it up. That’s in a story covering AI which was a potential curveball in both directions in our “Curveballs for 2025” pack earlier this week (link here). Another was that inflation refuses to behave relative to expectations, particularly in the US. Today we’ll see the next installment in this saga with US CPI ahead of an interesting FOMC next week.
If inflation does make a comeback in 2025 and 2026 it may be centred around tax cuts and tariffs so today’s number is well before any of that might happen, but US inflation has been on the stubborn side in recent months in what has been the better half of the year for seasonals.
In terms of what to expect, the general consensus is it’s going to be a stronger one again, and our US economists are looking for a +0.30% monthly print on the headline measure. If realised, that would actually be the highest number in 7 months, and would lift the year-on-year CPI rate up to +2.8%. Moreover, they expect core CPI to come in at a monthly +0.27%, which would be the fourth consecutive month with a core CPI print rounding to +0.3%. So that’s a bit too fast for the Fed to be completely comfortable, although our economists think that the rise in the unemployment rate in last week’s jobs report should still allow them to proceed with a 25bp cut next week. See their full preview here, along with how to sign up for their subsequent webinar.
Markets have lost some ground over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.30%) extending its losses at the start of the week as we await the CPI report. Futures are pricing in a 86% probability that the Fed will cut rates this week but at the same point before the November meeting, a cut was priced as a 95% chance, so there’s more doubt than there was last time, and a strong print today would definitely raise the uncertainty into year-end. And given President-elect Trump’s pledge to introduce more aggressive tariffs, there’s also plenty of potential inflationary pressures still in the pipeline.
Ahead of the CPI, Treasury yields ticked up, with the 2yr yield (+1.9bps) up to 4.15%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.5bps) rose to 4.23%. That got support from the NFIB’s small business optimism index, which surged to 101.7 in November (vs. 95.3 expected). Indeed, it was the biggest monthly jump in the index since it began as a monthly series in 1986, and it takes it up to its highest level since June 2021. So it speaks to a big shift in sentiment that we also saw in the NY Fed’s survey yesterday, where the share expecting their household financial situation to improve reached its highest since February 2020. That said, it remains to be seen to what extent this post-election jump in the surveys, many of which have been historically subdued over the past couple of years, will translate into hard activity gains.
Indeed, that positive data didn’t help equities much, with the S&P 500 (-0.30%) retreating for a second session in a row for the first time in three weeks. That was despite a strong gain for the Magnificent 7 (+0.99%), which hit an all-time high that took its YTD gain up to +68.80%. Those gains were led by Alphabet (+5.59%) after Google unveiled its new quantum computing chip, Willow, which is seen as delivering important progress towards building quantum computers with practical applications. According to the company, the chip “performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years” and can reduce errors while scaling up the number of qubits, which is a long-standing challenge in the field. I understand about half of what I’ve just typed I think.
Several more trade-exposed areas didn’t do so well however, with some putting it down to Trump’s description of Canadian PM Trudeau as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.” So investors interpreted that by suggesting Trump was less likely to back down on his tariff threats. And in light of that, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-2.47%) and the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (-4.34%) both had their worst daily performances in nearly a month, with the latter correcting from the +8.54% surge the day before. Equity losses were also seen in Europe, with the Stoxx 600 down -0.52%.
Over in Europe, attention is now turning to the ECB’s policy decision tomorrow, where they’re widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut. And ahead of that, bond yields saw modest moves across the Euro Area, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) essentially unchanged, while OAT (+0.8bps) and BTP (+1.0bps) yields edged slightly higher. The outlier was 10yr gilt yields (+5.3bps), which pushed the UK-German 10yr spread up to 220bps, which is the widest it’s been since September 2022 when Liz Truss was still PM. Bear in mind that the closing peak in the spread was 228bps under Liz Truss, and that hasn’t been exceeded in Bloomberg’s data series back to 1992. So we’re pretty close to a multi-decade record, and the widening interest differential also meant that sterling closed at its strongest level against the Euro since June 2016, the month of the Brexit referendum.
In European political news, French President Macron said that he plans to appoint a new prime minister in the next 48 hours in a meeting with French political leaders. That follows last week’s collapse of the government led by PM Barnier. According to reporting by Bloomberg and others, Macron is seeking to build a coalition of moderates that could last through to the end of his Presidential term in 2027.
Asian equity markets are struggling for direction this morning. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (-0.14%) is losing ground with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.47%), the CSI (-0.29%) and the Hang Seng (-0.29%) are also lower as a two-day annual economic meeting begins in Beijing today. The meeting comes after China’s Politburo on Monday offered its most dovish signals yet on plans to unlock more stimulus and support growth. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.73%) continues to gain ground for the second consecutive session following last week’s short lived martial law event. US futures are fairly flat.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation rose +3.7% y/y in November (v/s +3.4% expected), accelerating at the fastest pace in 16 months and compared to an upwardly revised gain of +3.6%. Following the stronger data release, the Japanese yen (+0.27%) is gaining ground, trading at 151.57 against the dollar amid growing inflationary pressure in the economy – thus keeping the door open for a possible interest rate hike by the BOJ next week.
There wasn’t too much other data yesterday, although US unit labour cost growth was revised down in Q3. So the previous reading had suggested unit labour costs were up by an annualised +1.9% rate, but the latest print lowered that to +0.8%. So that pointed to weaker inflationary pressures than previously thought. Otherwise in Italy, industrial production was flat in October, in line with expectations.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI report for November. Otherwise, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest policy decision.
2B EUROPEAN REPORT
DXY bid on reports that China is considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025; US CPI due – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 06:12 AM
- European bourses began the session entirely in the red, but sentiment has improved to display a mixed picture; NQ incrementally outperforms in the US.
- Dollar bid as markets digest reports of China allowing a weaker yuan, JPY choppy amid BoJ sources.
- China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms, via Reuters citing sources
- Mixed performance for paper, US 10yr supply looms.
- Crude initially hampered by Yuan-reports, but has since pared with crude now at session highs; metals on the backfoot.
- Looking ahead, US CPI, BoC & BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Governor Macklem, Rogers, supply from the US, Earnings from Macy’s, and Adobe.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses opened almost entirely in the red, but now display more of a mixed picture as sentiment gradually improves in the complex. Price action has been modest in nature, with traders mindful of the looming US CPI.
- European sectors opened with a strong negative bias, but sentiment has improved a touch as the morning progressed to display a mixed picture. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile alongside Media. Retail is by far and away the clear underperformer in Europe, hit by a double whammy of losses from Inditex and Zalando.
- US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming slightly, attempting to pare back some of the losses seen in the prior session.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- The USD was lent a helping hand in early trade following a Reuters sources report that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms. This sent DXY to a new high for the week at 106.68, stopping shy of last week’s MTD high at 106.73 (which has since been breached in recent trade). Today’s sees the release of November CPI data which is expected to see a +0.3% M/M outturn for core CPI.
- EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.05 following a pick-up in the USD after reports of China looking to devalue the yuan next year. EUR/USD went as low as 1.0489 but stopped shy of the December low at 1.0460.
- JPY was firmer vs. the USD during APAC hours following two consecutive sessions of losses as markets digested above forecast Japanese PPI data; the Yuan reporting also supported. Thereafter, JPY gained further ground vs. the USD after a Bloomberg sources piece noted that the BoJ sees little cost in waiting for the next rate hike. This move was then subsequently reversed after markets digested another aspect of the report which noted that the BoJ sees less risk of a softer JPY boosting inflation (i.e less pressure to intervene). USD/JPY is back above its 200DMA at 152.00 with a session peak at 152.65.
- GBP is softer vs. the USD with UK catalysts on the light side. Friday’s monthly GDP print unlikely to be a gamechanger for the BoE. Cable went as high as 1.2781 overnight before returning to within yesterday’s 1.2724-1.2778 range.
- CNH was knocked lower in early European trade after source reporting via Reuters noted that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms.
- CAD is steady vs. the USD ahead of today’s BoC rate decision. The BoC is widely expected to cut rates with the consensus looking for another 50bps reduction, but with a risk of a smaller 25bp move.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1843 vs exp. 7. 2379 (prev. 7.1876)
- RBI likely selling USD to limit INR fall, according to Reuters citing traders.
- BoJ reportedly sees little cost in waiting for the next rate hike, according to Bloomberg; cites current prices. Next rate increase is seen as a “matter of time”. View is that there is less risk of a soft JPY boosting inflation.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are back in negative territory after support from a Reuters report noting that China could be willing to let the Yuan devalue next year, proved to be short-lived. Mar’25 contract is currently tucked within yesterday’s 110.26-111.09 range, ahead of US CPI.
- Today is seeing a minor reversal of the recent outperformance of French paper over its German counterpart. European paper was dealt some minor support in early trade following the aforementioned Reuters source report on China. Bunds are back above 136 and towards the top end of yesterday’s 135.75-136.26 trading range.
- Gilts are reversing some of yesterday’s selling which didn’t appear to be driven by an obvious catalyst at the time. Mar’25 Gilt is currently towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 95.13-73 trading range. Modest pressure was seen in Gilt prices following the 2034 auction, given the relatively wider tail.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.25% 2034 Gilt: b/c 2.87x (prev. 2.81x), avg yield 4.332% (prev. 4.475%) & tail 1.3bps (prev. 0.8bps).
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are on a firmer footing, and has pared initial pressure which was sparked by Reuters reporting, which noted that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms. Overnight trade saw oil prices propped up as traders digested reports that the US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office.
- Spot gold spent most of the European morning in modest negative territory, but has since climbed into the green. XAU has traded in a tight range of USD 2675.89-2704.35/oz range.
- Base metals traded on a firmer footing throughout overnight trade, with gains driven by the ongoing optimism surrounding China’s easing of overall monetary policy stance. Into the European morning, prices began to dive lower on the aforementioned Yuan-related reports.
- Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.499mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate +2.452mln (exp. +1.4mln), Gasoline +2.852mln (exp. +1.7mln), Cushing -1.517mln (prev. +0.1mln).
- El Paso Natural Gas Co. declares initial force majeure – Line 1200, according to Reuters.
- Goldman Sachs pushes back on the argument that gold cannot rally to USD 3,000/oz by end-2025 “in a world where the dollar stays stronger for longer.” “Fewer Fed cuts are a key downside risk to our USD 3,000 end-2025 gold price forecast (not a stronger dollar).”.
- UBS forecasts Brent rising to USD 80/bbl and WTI rising to USD 75/bbl in 2025. UBS says for 2025, it holds a constructive natgas price outlook (see NatGas at USD 3.50/mmbtu in June 2025, rising to USD 3.60/mmbtu by September).
- Ukraine’s military says it struck an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region; military says the attack caused a ‘massive fire’. Attack on an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region did not affect oil transit to Europe via Ukraine, according to Reuters citing a industry source. Kazakhstan says Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia is not damaged by Ukrainian overnight strikes.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump’s Treasury pick Bessent said Fed Chair Powell can serve the remainder of his term, via CNBC. Trump said he picked FTC Commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the FTC. Trump said he picked Ron Johnson to serve as the United States Ambassador to Mexico.
- US President Biden is to hit Chinese cleantech imports with more tariffs, in an effort to protect US manufacturing, according to the FT.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Sky News Arabia reports that it is monitoring the advance of Israeli tanks in the Golan.
- Two US Navy destroyers successfully defeated Houthi-launched weapons while transiting the Gulf of Aden, according to the US military.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office, according to Bloomberg.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia will “definitely be prepared to consider” another prisoner swap with the US, according to NBC.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is back on a firmer footing and tops USD 98k once again.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed following a soft US handover as participants brace for the US CPI data, although Chinese markets continued to benefit from the easing in China’s overall monetary policy stance.
- ASX 200 was on a softer footing with almost all of its sectors in the red, whilst IT lagged following a similar sectoral performance stateside.
- Nikkei 225 was subdued but within narrow parameters whilst Japanese PPI topped expectations, with eyes on next week’s BoJ.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both initially traded firmer in a continuation of the optimism from Politburo on Monday revising its overall monetary policy stance. Upside for the indices however were modest and capped ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, whilst the China A50 faded earlier gains and dipped into the red and was later joined by the Hang Seng.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s watchdog orders PDD (PDD) to fix controversial refunds policy, according to Bloomberg
- RBA’s Hauser says Australian inflation could move in either direction. The data needs to come in line with forecasts for the central bank to change policySays there is no particular trigger figure for inflation for the RBA to ease policy.
- Japan auto worker’s union calls for monthly pay increase of more than JPY 12,000 in annual labour talks next year.
- China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms, via Reuters citing sources.
- South Korea Finance Ministry said will make ample responses to curb any excessive volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
- South Korea’s economy and finance minister spoke to US Treasury Secretary Yellen, according to Reuters.
- South Korean police raid presidential office over martial law, according to Yonhap.
- Japan reportedly plans a 4% corporate tax surtax from 2026 to fund defence, according to Kyodo.
- Monetary Authority of Singapore survey: Singapore 2024 GDP growth at 3.6% (vs prev. 2.6%); 2024 core inflation seen at 2.9% (vs prev. 3.0%).
- ADB trimmed developing Asia 2024 growth forecast to 4.9% (prev. 5.0%), trimmed 2025 to 4.8% (prev. 4.9%); says growth outlook faces downside risks from the magnitude and speed of expected US policy shifts under Trump.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Nov) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%, Rev. 3.6%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Nov) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
- South Korean Unemployment Rate (Nov) 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
- New Zealand Manufacturing Sales (Q3) -1.2% (Prev. 0.6%)
2C ASIAN REPORT
Mixed trade in APAC as participants bide time ahead of US CPI – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 01:48 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed following a soft US handover, although Chinese markets continued to benefit from the easing in China’s overall monetary policy stance.
- DXY and UST futures were flat within a tight range as traders look towards the US CPI release ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
- Crude futures were firmer in a continuation of the China optimism; upside was experienced following reports that the US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office.
- European equity futures are indicative of a subdued cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash closed -0.7% on Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, BoC & BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Governor Macklem, Rogers, supply from UK and US.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks trundled lower throughout the US session with SPX, NDX, DJIA, and RUT all seeing weakness of similar magnitudes.
- Sectors were almost exclusively in the red with only Communication Services and Consumer Staples in the green as the former was the distinct gainer and buoyed by gains in Alphabet (GOOGL) (+5.7%). Real Estate and Technology lagged with the latter hit by Nvidia (NVDA) (-2.5%), Micron (MU) (-4.7%), and AMD (AMD) (-2.3%) weakness, albeit with a lack of headline newsflow.
- SPX -0.30% at 6,035, NDX -0.34% at 21,368, DJIA -0.35% at 44,248, RUT -0.42% at 2,383.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump’s Treasury pick Bessent said Fed Chair Powell can serve the remainder of his term, via CNBC. Trump said he picked FTC Commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the FTC. Trump said he picked Ron Johnson to serve as the United States Ambassador to Mexico
- Google (GOOG) reportedly asked FTC to block Microsoft’s (MSFT) exclusive cloud deal with OpenAI, according to The Information.
- Citi (C) CFO bank will be at the high end of guidance for 2024; says global economy is proving to be resilient; China is starting to show stabilisation and a rebound from the bottom; general sentiment is pro-growth to 2025
- JPMorgan (JPM) exec says NII outlook has firmed up and expects 2025 NII to be about USD 2bln higher. Systemwide deposits could be neutral to higher next year. Sees Q4 NII and expenses a little bit better than consensus. IB fees will increase by about 45% vs. last year in Q4. Markets revenue in Q4 +15% Y/Y.
- Walgreens (WBA) reportedly in talks to sell itself to Sycamore Partners, via WSJ.
- US President Biden plans to formally block the USD 14.1bln sale of United States Steel (X) to Nippon Steel (5401 JT) on national security grounds once the deal is referred back to him later this month, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed following a soft US handover as participants brace for the US CPI data, although Chinese markets continued to benefit from the easing in China’s overall monetary policy stance.
- ASX 200 was on a softer footing with almost all of its sectors in the red, whilst IT lagged following a similar sectoral performance stateside.
- Nikkei 225 was subdued but within narrow parameters whilst Japanese PPI topped expectations, with eyes on next week’s BoJ.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both initially traded firmer in a continuation of the optimism from Politburo on Monday revising its overall monetary policy stance. Upside for the indices however were modest and capped ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, whilst the China A50 faded earlier gains and dipped into the red and was later joined by the Hang Seng.
- US equity futures traded flat across the board in the run-up to the US CPI report which will be viewed to further cement expectations for the FOMC December meeting, where a 25bps rate cut is expected.
- European equity futures are indicative of a subdued cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash closed -0.7% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY was flat within a tight range for most of the session before gradually moving towards highs in late APAC trade as traders look towards Wednesday’s US CPI release.
- EUR/USD was uneventful in a 1.0521-39 parameter with newsflow for the EUR on the quieter side ahead of Thursday’s ECB.
- GBP/USD saw little notable action with UK newsflow on the lighter side, with Cable printing an APAC range between 1.2769-81.
- USD/JPY digested above forecast Japanese PPI data, with the pair trimming some of yesterday’s gains and falling back under 152.00 and then briefly under 151.50.
- Antipodeans saw flat trade for most of the session amid a lack of pertinent catalysts and in the run-up to risk events.
- Yuan saw mild gains in early trade amid continued optimism surrounding China, but gains were capped as traders await the Central Economic Work Conference.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1843 vs exp. 7. 2379 (prev. 7.1876)
- RBI likely selling USD to limit INR fall, according to Reuters citing traders.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures traded sideways with a downward bias following the prior day’s bear steepening ahead of CPI and further supply.
- Bund futures saw minimal price action with the March contract meandering just under the 136.00 level, with traders looking ahead to Thursday’s ECB.
- 10yr JGB futures held a downward bias following the hotter-than-expected Japanese PPI, but with downside limited ahead of US CPI.
- US sold USD 58bln of 3yr notes; tails 0.1bps; High Yield: 4.117% (prev. 4.152%, six-auction average 4.056%). WI: 4.116%. Tail: 0.1bps (prev. 0.9bps, six-auction avg. 0.0bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.58x (prev. 2.6x, six-auction avg. 2.56x). Dealers: 15.1% (prev. 19.8%, six-auction avg. 16.6%). Directs: 20.7% (prev. 9.6%, six-auction avg. 17.1%). Indirects: 64.2% (prev. 70.6%, six-auction avg. 66.4%).
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were firmer in a continuation of the China optimism upside was experienced following reports that the US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office. The private inventory data did little to impact prices at the time of release.
- Spot gold briefly topped USD 2,700/oz in late US/early APAC trade before fading back under the level and then some more despite a lack of newsflow but ahead of risk events, whilst spot silver lagged.
- Copper futures saw gains driven by the ongoing optimism surrounding China’s easing of overall monetary policy stance, with eyes turning to the Central Economic Work Conference for fiscal announcements.
- EIA STEO: 2024 world oil demand forecast at 103.03mln BPD (prev. forecast of 102.6mln BPD), 2025 at 104.32mln BPD (prev. 104.7mln BPD).
- Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.499mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate +2.452mln (exp. +1.4mln), Gasoline +2.852mln (exp. +1.7mln), Cushing -1.517mln (prev. +0.1mln).
- El Paso Natural Gas Co. declares initial force majeure – Line 1200, according to Reuters.
- Goldman Sachs pushes back on the argument that gold cannot rally to USD 3,000/oz by end-2025 “in a world where the dollar stays stronger for longer.” “Fewer Fed cuts are a key downside risk to our USD 3,000 end-2025 gold price forecast (not a stronger dollar).”.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was steady and moved back above USD 97k after its recent fall below 100k.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- South Korea Finance Ministry said will make ample responses to curb any excessive volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
- South Korea’s economy and finance minister spoke to US Treasury Secretary Yellen, according to Reuters.
- South Korean police raid presidential office over martial law, according to Yonhap.
- Japan reportedly plans a 4% corporate tax surtax from 2026 to fund defence, according to Kyodo.
- Monetary Authority of Singapore survey: Singapore 2024 GDP growth at 3.6% (vs prev. 2.6%); 2024 core inflation seen at 2.9% (vs prev. 3.0%).
- ADB trimmed developing Asia 2024 growth forecast to 4.9% (prev. 5.0%), trimmed 2025 to 4.8% (prev. 4.9%); says growth outlook faces downside risks from the magnitude and speed of expected US policy shifts under Trump.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Nov) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%, Rev. 3.6%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Nov) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
- South Korean Unemployment Rate (Nov) 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
- New Zealand Manufacturing Sales (Q3) -1.2% (Prev. 0.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel to react strongly if new Syria regime lets Iran back in, according to Israeli PM Netanyahu.
- Two US Navy destroyers successfully defeated Houthi-launched weapons while transiting the Gulf of Aden, according to the US military.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office, according to Bloomberg.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia will “definitely be prepared to consider” another prisoner swap with the US, according to NBC.
OTHER
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French President Macron aims to avoid new French parliament election before 2027; Macron told party leaders he would appoint a PM within 48 hours, via Macron aides.
LATAM
- Brazil’s government published regulations on Congress amendments, according to the Official Gazette.
- Brazil Lower House Speaker Lira said spending cut proposals could even be voted on this week; “we have time to reach agreements”, according to Reuters.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
China/USA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
get ready for Nigel!
Billionaire Brit Abandons Tories; Backs Reform UK’s Farage As Next PM
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 08:10 AM
In July, the UK held a general election that on the surface looked to be as consequential as the one we had here in the US in November.
After 14 years of Conservative Party leadership, the Labour Party won an astonishing number of seats in Parliament, but because of the UK’s system, which awards seats to the recipient of a plurality of votes – and as many as six parties fielding candidates – many of these new members of Parliament won with as little as 35% of the vote.
It didn’t take long for Brits to sour on this new Labour government. Even though the Tories (Conservatives) still have a low favorability rating, Labour’s leaders saw a significant drop in net favorability less than two months after the election.
Then, in late November, an online petition surfaced with over 2 million signatures urging the Labour government to call for a new election.
“‘I would like there to be another General Election. I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election,’ the petition says,” as Patrick O’Flynn explained at The Spectator. “It’s that simple: the accusation is that Keir Starmer was elected on a deliberately false prospectus and that his administration therefore lacks basic democratic legitimacy.”
“Keir Starmer said he ‘wasn’t surprised’ that 2 million people had signed a petition calling for an election, adding ‘there will be plenty of people who didn’t want us in the first place,'” reported Isabel Hardman at The Spectator.
Reform revived a sizeable chunk of votes, over four million, in the UK general election in July but only secured five parliamentary seats owing to the first past the post system.
One in seven people voted Reform, yet the party ended up with 67 fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats, who received around two percent fewer votes.
The Telegraph reports,“’Reform will probably get 100 seats at the next election even without extra money’, says one election strategist. ‘And if they get a substantial amount of money, they will be able to run a much more targeted campaign based on the sort of data they don’t currently have’.”
“Farage wants to be the next prime minister, and believes that in today’s highly volatile political climate that is genuinely achievable in 2029,” the report states.
Here’s PTJ in July…
And now, with the country demanding change, an old face is new again as Nigel Farage – leader of the newly formed Reform UK Party – is soaring in the polls and has found some wealthy benefactors to fund his campaign to be the next Prime Minister.
After speculation that X owner Elon Musk was about to give Reform £80 million…
twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1863502615251972208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%
…Mr. Farage has produced a different donor who intends to break fundraising records – billionaire property developer, Nick Candy.
Nick has joined his famous Australian singer/actress wife Holly Valance as a member of Reform U.K., telling the Independent this week that:
“I will also raise Reform more money than any political party in the U.K. has ever raised. Nigel will be the next PM of the U.K.”
He added:
“There will be a massive exodus all coming to Reform.”
The Independent reports that Mr. Candy has been close to Reform through his wife for a number of months and helped raise money for them and President Trump a few months ago. It is understood though that he had waited to see who won the Tory leadership election before making a final decision to jump parties.
“He started as a dear friend, a close, close friend, and he’s still a dear friend,” Candy said, adding that “my kids call him Uncle Nigel.”
Farage, Candy told the assembled reporters, was our next prime minister.
“I wouldn’t be doing this if I wasn’t 100 per cent certain of that.”
Candy told GB News that the Farage government will deliver two things: much lower taxes and a much-improved National Health Service; while promising to raise £40million for Reform before the next election.
Musk was quick to follow up to this post on X…
The Conservatives have been forced to cut down on the number of staff because of a shortage of funds and another rich donor going elsewhere will be a problem.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
SYRIA
EXTREMISTS in Syria carry out revenge killings
(the cradle)
/Extremist Groups Carry Out Revenge, Sectarian Killings In HTS-Controlled Syria
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Extremist armed factions across Syria are carrying out executions of civilians and soldiers amid the chaos following the fall of deposed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Al-Mayadeen reports on Tuesday that a video circulating on social media shows armed militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Al-Qaeda offshoot that took control of Damascus on Saturday, carrying out field executions of unarmed men in the village of al-Rabia in the countryside of Latakia.
The militants referred to the men as ‘Shabiha’, a derogatory term long used to describe pro-government Syrian soldiers and civilians.
The HTS military operations administration reported ongoing clashes in Al-Rabia, including the encirclement of a group of officers inside a fortified farm in the village, Al-Mayadeen stated.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on Tuesday that, according to its sources, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) carried out executions and assaulted properties of nearly 30,000 Kurdish families in Manbij City.
In the Nawaha and Al-Asadiya neighborhoods, SNA militants burned houses of civilians, stole their property, and executed at least three people, including a woman, SOHR added.
On Monday, ISIS militants killed 54 Syrian army soldiers who were fleeing an attack by the terror group in the central province of Homs.
(Warning: Graphic)
ISIS militants captured “personnel fleeing military service in the desert … during the collapse of the regime” of president Bashar al-Assad and “executed 54” of them in the Sukhna area in the Homs desert, SOHR stated.
Syrian sources reported the assassination on Tuesday of Sheikh Tawfiq al-Bhouti by unknown attackers. Bhouti was the son of the world-renowned Sunni Muslim scholar Sheikh Muhammad Saeed Ramadan al-Bhouti, who was assassinated along with 40 others in a mosque in 2013 by members of the Nusra Front, now known as HTS.
🚨🇸🇾 Even more suspected SAA members are currently being EXECUTED by ISIS forces! pic.twitter.com/sKUsBWQGlS— The Saviour (@stairwayto3dom) December 10, 2024
ISIS militants captured “personnel fleeing military service in the desert … during the collapse of the regime” of president Bashar al-Assad and “executed 54” of them in the Sukhna area in the Homs desert, SOHR stated.
Syrian sources reported the assassination on Tuesday of Sheikh Tawfiq al-Bhouti by unknown attackers. Bhouti was the son of the world-renowned Sunni Muslim scholar Sheikh Muhammad Saeed Ramadan al-Bhouti, who was assassinated along with 40 others in a mosque in 2013 by members of the Nusra Front, now known as HTS.
The elder Bhouti was an advocate of Sufism, and an opponent of Salafi interpretations of Islam that teach hatred against non-Muslims. Bhouti was a strong supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s government and spoke against the extremist armed groups attacking Syrian civilians, police, and soldiers during the war that began in 2011.
end
/SYRIA/TALIBAN/HAMAS
Terrorists Taliban and Hamas congratulate the Syrian people after Assad’s fall
(Jerusalem Post)
Taliban & Hamas ‘Congratulate’ Syrian People & Julani After Assad Fall
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024 – 07:40 PM
The hardline and extremist Islamic groups Hamas and the Taliban have been among the first regional entities to offer congratulations to the Islamist-led ‘rebels’ and the Syrian people after the overthrow of the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
Afghanistan’s Taliban government announced the following on Sunday soon after al-Qaeda spinoff Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gained control of the presidential palace and government ministries and state media stations in Damascus:
“We express hope that the process of power transition be carried out in a manner aligned with the aspirations of the Syrian people, paving path for the establishment of an independent and service-oriented Islamic government,” a foreign ministry statement said, calling for Syria to be able to “move forward free from external interference”.
Hamas in Gaza had a similar message, praising the Syrian people for achieving their “aspirations for freedom and justice” after the Syrian Army collapsed and Assad fled the country.
In Hamas’ first public statement on the Syria crisis, the group said: “We stand strongly with the great people of Syria […] and respect the will, the independence and the political choices of the people of Syria.”
Hamas further expressed hope that post-Assad Syria will continue “its historical and pivotal role in supporting the Palestinian people.”
The head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad Al-Nakhala, also issued a congratulations, offering similar words. All of the aforementioned groups are considered terrorists by Washington and many governments around the world.
But in the case of HTS which now rules Damascus and much of the major cities in Syria, Washington and London are reportedly mulling whether to drop the formal terror listing.
The Israeli government has issued a warning to HTS and the jihadist factions in Damascus, saying that they will go the way of Assad if they threaten Israel. IDF tanks are meanwhile just about 25km to the south of Damascus, after moving in the country ostensibly to secure a ‘buffer zone’.
The groups now in control of Syria have an ideology no different than the Taliban’s, and in many cases are even more extreme…
He and his fighters have long been on record as seeking to establish an ‘Islamic State’ and governance based on Sharia law. The Assad government had represented the last secular state in the Middle East, belonging to the Baath party.
end
Israel now has complete control of Mount Herman, the highest peak in the area and they have 1000% vision on Syria and Lebanon. They also have complete control of the buffer zone. Israel will be quite safe for quite some time.
SYRIA /ISRAEL/IRAN/KURDS/SYRIAN GOVERNMENT FORCES/TURKEY/RUSSIA//opinion
Expert: Israel can ‘completely destroy enemy army without war’ through Syria control
Experts warn instability post-Assad poses risks, with extremist groups gaining ground and potential long-term Israeli presence.
By KEREN SETTON/THE MEDIA LINEDECEMBER 11, 2024 15:22Updated: DECEMBER 11, 2024 16:36
Israel’s concern that the instability in Syria could spill over into its territory has led it to major action in the neighboring country, essentially opening an additional front in the multi-front war it has been engaged in for fourteen months.
Over the weekend, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took control of the demilitarized buffer zone in Syria that was established as part of a 1974 cease-fire reached between the two hostile countries.
In that buffer zone is Mt. Hermon’s highest peak, the highest point on the east coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
“The territory guarantees strategic control over the whole southern Syrian arena, which generates an immediate threat to Israel,” Kobi Michael, a researcher at INSS and the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told The Media Line. “There is no higher vantage point than the Syrian part of the Golan.”
Power in Syria is now de-centralized, with the country fragmented between several groups, most of them extreme Islamist, potentially posing a new array of threats to Israel.
“Israel is not looking to apply sovereignty to the buffer zone, but rather to militarily control the area in order to prevent danger under conditions of instability,” Michael assessed.
Israeli officials have emphasized the tactical nature of the move, which also likely stems from the trauma from the surprise attack executed by the Hamas terrorist attack on its border with Gaza last year.
“For decades, the Israeli security establishment considered the border with Syria its quietest and closely associated to the Assad regime,” Dr. Joel Parker, a researcher from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line. “Assad is the devil Israel knows, but at the same time, with the de-facto commitment to non-aggression with Syria, Israel watched it build up military abilities, including the development of chemical weapons, to levels that were far beyond when the armistice line was created.”
In 2007, however, Israel carried out an airstrike against a suspected Syrian nuclear site. Years later, it took responsibility for the attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would not allow its neighbors to develop nuclear weapons. Syria denied the site was a nuclear reactor.
Taking advantage of internal chaos
Now, Israel is taking advantage of the internal chaos. The Israeli military swiftly entered Syria, apparently reaching deep into its territory and taking control of the peak of Mount Hermon, which allows for an advantageous view of both Syria and Lebanon. Reportedly, the army also conducted airstrikes in Syria against sites that stored unconventional weapons, air-defense systems, and navy vessels. Video on social media showed explosions in various cities and pictures of alleged Syrian Air Force bases destroyed.
“This is an unprecedented event in which the Israeli army has the ability to completely destroy an enemy army without a war,” said Michael. “This opportunity is being used wisely by Israel in order to ensure a better reality.”
The IDF only confirmed it had entered the buffer zone and was holding positions there, denying reports its forces were approaching the capital, Damascus. This offensive has so far gone without a response from Syria or any of the factions currently holding control.
Israel captured part of the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war. It annexed the territories in a move that was considered illegal by most of the international community, which still considers the territory Syrian. In 2019, the US departed from decades of policy and recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the territory. The other part of the mountainous area remained in Syria’s control. UN forces have patrolled the buffer zone since the 1974 agreement.
“The Golan Heights will be an inseparable part of the State of Israel forever,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a press conference he held on Monday night, indicating his country’s intentions.
Netanyahu defined the movement into the buffer zone as temporary, but in the Middle East, what often begins as temporary often becomes permanent. The UN said the move violated international agreements. Arab leaders condemned it, and a spokesperson for the US State Department said that while it expected the move to be temporary, the US understood Israeli motives.
“The Syrian army abandoned its positions in the area … which potentially creates a vacuum that could have been filled by terrorist organizations that would threaten the state of Israel…every country has the right to take action against terrorist organizations, and every country, I think, would be worried about a possible vacuum that could be filled by terrorist organizations on its border, especially in volatile times, as we obviously are in right now in Syria,” said Matthew Miller.
Israel is concerned that the different groups that are now clamoring for power in Syria after the regime of President Bashar Assad collapsed will be hostile. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who led the insurgency against Assad, is a former Al-Qaida terrorist who claims he has reformed and abandoned extremism. Classified by the US as a terrorist and previously imprisoned for his activities, he has been associated with the extremist Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Al-Golani leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), or the Organization for Liberating Syria. Videos on social media earlier this week showed HTS members vowing to help Palestinians in Gaza act against Israel and liberate Jerusalem from Israeli control.
“What is known about al-Golani poses red flags for Israel,” said Parker. “He is the new kid on the block, associated with many jihadist operatives in the world, which has access to almost unlimited manpower. His charisma, his jihadi ideology, and his current control in Syria have Israel wanting to have access to chemical weapons, ballistic missiles, and even helicopters.”
When the swift insurgency began, the Israeli army already put its forces on high alert, sending reinforcements.
“There is no way to tell where this is going,” said Michael. “Israel could be facing a difficult reality that will force it to stay and broaden its hold on territory, perhaps even act more forcefully in order to pre-empt danger.”
The collapse of the Assad regime is one of the most significant shifts to occur in the Middle East in decades. While Israel and Syria were sworn enemies under both Bashar Assad and his father, there was stability in the relationship, which has now been rattled. While this has removed Iranian presence from Israel’s border, it could be replaced by extreme Islam, which is also not favorable to the Jewish state.
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END
EGYPT/ISRAEL/HAMAS/HOSTAGES
Hamas gives list of hostages ahead of negotiations
(JerusalemPost)
Hamas gives Egypt list of hostages terror group holds, negotiations privately progress – report
Officials reportedly confirmed that hostage/ceasefire negotiations were privately progressing.
By SAM HALPERNDECEMBER 10, 2024 20:56Updated: DECEMBER 11, 2024 08:35
Hamas has given Egyptian mediators a list of Israeli hostages that are currently being held in captivity by the terror group, Saudi news channel Al Arabiya reported on Tuesday.
The update comes as the Saudi outlet reported that officials confirmed that negotiations were privately progressing and that secret communications were in the works to finalize a ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip.
On Monday, London-based Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported that Hamas had presented Egyptian mediators an initial list with the names of the hostages who would be included in a possible hostage deal.
The list reportedly included the names of four American hostages, as well as hostages who are elderly or suffer from medical conditions.
Hamas also submitted a list with the names of Palestinian prisoners it would like released from Israeli prisons in exchange for the hostages, according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.
On Wednesday, Hamas’s representative in Lebanon, Ahmed Abdel Hadi, poured cold water on the reports, telling the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news outlet Al Mayadeen that the terror organization had neither received any ceasefire proposal nor submitted any lists.
‘There was no Zionist offer’
“There was no Zionist offer during the visit of the Hamas delegation to Cairo, nor were there any new ideas for us to consider,” Hadi reportedly told the Al Mayadeen.
According to the Lebanese report, Hadi said the reports that Hamas had presented lists of hostages were rumors and that American, European, and regional entities were trying to promote a positive narrative.
“They assume that the movement will succumb to the enemy’s conditions,” Hadi told the Lebanese outlet.
Earlier this month, two Israeli officials told Walla that Israel had given Hamas, through Egyptian mediators, an updated version of a ceasefire deal proposal that involves the release of the remaining 100 hostages.
end
SYRIA/
There are 6 million Syrian refugees. The new PM urges them to return home if you what is left home. What we must watch for is the return of ISIS
(zerohedge)
New PM Urges Syrians Abroad To Return Home (Amid Israeli Airstrikes & ISIS Threats)
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 11:25 AM
Syria’s new transitional Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, who had headed up Hayat Tahir al-Sham’s (HTS) administration of Idlib, has urged all Syrian refugees across the globe to return and help rebuild the country.
He announced Wednesday that among his first goals is to “bring back the millions of Syrian refugees who are abroad.” At the moment Bashir and his HTS overseers are urging state employees to return to their respective government ministries in order to get basic services such as electricity fully restored.
Al-Bashir has said that Syrians need “stability and calm” – even as HTS allies, factions, as well as rivals conduct sectarian revenge and execution killings especially in countryside areas of Syria. There have been reports that HTS leaders are urging people not to upload images of such killings or violent reprisal attacks to the internet, dismissing these instances as a few bad acts in a country with millions of people.
Recent United Nations figures say that after 14 years of brutal war, and following the events of the past week, at least six million Syrians are refugees abroad – most of them in neighboring countries like Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan – but many of them in Europe as well.
European countries including Germany and Austria have halted and canceled asylum cases for Syrians, telling them to return home. But it remains that at the moment there’s not much of a home to return to. Germany has been among the first European countries to pledge large sums of humanitarian aid to Damascus.
The vast majority of Syria is without basic services including electricity, with Western studies estimating at least $1.2 trillion in damage after the war. But the most immediate threat to anyone on the ground is the state of lawlessness and likelihood for inter-factional fighting.
Israel has also continued its unprecedented bombing campaign across almost all parts of Syria, destroying and degrading the Syrian Army’s bases, missile stockpiles, and chemical weapons facilities. These airstrikes are happening with impunity, as there is no military or anti-air defense units, and they have been going for several days straight, intensifying most in the night hours.
One war monitor has cited at least 350 Israeli airstrikes on Syria in the past four days.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has described that “Israeli fighter jets continue to destroy the remaining military assets in Syria for the fourth consecutive day.”
Meanwhile, Russia is saying that the current situation is ripe for ISIS’ return. “Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has warned that there was a real risk that ISIL (ISIS) fighters could rise again in Syria,” the state RIA news agency has reported. But the reality also is that ISIS-linked factions as well as “former” ISIS members are now comfortably ensconced in Damascus.
end
Inside Syria from the top of Golan Heights
‘Post’ visits Syria in first Israeli media visit since 1974
Hagari: No advance on Damascus, only buffer zone until Syria becomes more stable.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 11, 2024 17:59Updated: DECEMBER 11, 2024 20:00
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3813527&url=https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833007JPost Military Correspondent Yonah Jeremy Bob reports on the ground in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, December 11, 2024 (YONAH JEREMY BOB)
The Jerusalem Post, on Wednesday, participated in a dramatic visit to an abandoned Syrian base at Tel Kudne in southern Syria, embedded with the IDF, as part of the first Israeli media visit to that country since the 1973-4 Yom Kippur War and armistice.
To the Post’s best knowledge, the last time an affiliated reporter visited Syria, was Abraham Rabinowitz, who visited multiple times between the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1974 armistice.
Standing on the top of Tel Kudne, which was the site of an intense battle during the 1973 War, the Post was able to see nearby the village of Kudne below as well as the village of Jaba, and other Syrian villages and hills deeper into the distance.
Looking to the Israeli side of the border, I was able to see Alonei Habashan and Keshet, which are slightly east of the Gamla National Park and Katzrin in the Golan.
The Post approached the Syrian base at Tel Kudne on an extremely bumpy road in a Sandcat Tigris, a small armored vehicle, winding through the Kudne village for a couple of kilometers, which was almost entirely deserted.
During the couple hours that the Post was in Syrian territory, I only saw one Syrian civilian and not a single Syrian soldier despite having a 360-view of several kilometers around the area.
IDF sources said that the country’s new rulers, the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have not yet had the time to send any forces to the southern border, being that they invaded Damascus from the North and were also themselves surprised at how quickly they advanced.
The base appeared rundown and poorly kept, which would not necessarily be presumed, given that the IDF said that the Syrian soldiers manning the base only fled from it on Friday, less than a week ago.
Sources from the IDF said that the state of the base and its weaponry was more poorly kept than bases belonging to Hamas and Hezbollah, which the IDF has recently overrun.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3813528&url=www.jpost.comJPost Military Correspondent Yonah Jeremy Bob reports on the ground in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, December 11, 2024 (YONAH JEREMY BOB)
IDF Division 210 managed to capture a number of Syrian tanks and other abandoned weaponry when they invaded on Saturday.
Brig. Gen. Yair Palai commands Division 210 as part of the Northern Command but was also involved during the current war in fighting in central Gaza and other places.
The top of the mountain was surrounded by an approximately two-meter-deep trench to provide cover for the defending Syrian forces, with several sniper and lookout windows that could provide the Syrian soldiers an advantage against any invaders lower down the mountain.
Stopping terror
At Tel Kudne, IDF Chief Spokesman Daniel Hagari told the Post, “We are here in an abandoned Syrian base in the buffer zone. The only reason we are here is to prevent terror [from] entering into the buffer zone.”
“A couple of days ago, [regarding] one of the UN bases of UNDOF here: we have prevented a terror attack on an UNDOF base,” continued Hagari.
Further, he told the Post, “The IDF is now controlling several points in this buffer zone to make sure that the Israeli border on that side [gesturing with his hand] is safe. This is the only reason we are here.”
IDF not planning to head to Damascus
“There have been rumors yesterday that our tanks are heading to Damascus. This is fake. We are only in the buffer zone, making sure that the Israeli border is safe, and we will keep on doing this [in] this time. This area of Syria is not stable. We need make sure that our border is safe,” he added.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3813529&url=www.jpost.comIDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari talks to The Jerusalem Post in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, December 11, 2024 (YONAH JEREMY BOB).
An open-ended withdrawal date
Despite Hagari’s guarantees that the IDF has no intention of occupying Syria indefinitely, IDF sources and government sources have left the withdrawal date open-ended and to be based on when Israel feels there is no significant threat from HTS.
It is unclear exactly how such an understanding will be achieved given that it is highly unlikely that HTS would normalize relations with Israel, viewed still by most of the Arab world as a hostile state, though Israel has normalized relations with six Muslim countries.
Previously, the Israeli-Syrian border had been mainly quiet with an indefinite state of war in a formal sense, but with an informal understanding that Syrian forces had no chance to successfully combat the IDF, such that they would not actually invade.
IDF sources were far from sure whether HTS, which has significant jihadist elements and was previously affiliated with al-Qaeda, will keep as quiet a border with Israel.
On the other hand, IDF sources said that they have already had contacts with HTS-affiliated officials on smaller issues.
For example, after some Syrian rebels attacked a UN site and stole some UN items, IDF officials were able to relay messages to higher up HTS affiliated officials, leading to the stolen items being returned within a relatively short time.
IDF 474 Brigade Commander Col. Benny Katah was in high spirits about the achievements of his forces to date in taking over the buffer zone near Israel’s border to provide extra insurance of security should the HTS group decide to be more actively hostile to Israel then the previous Assad regime.
Despite all of the caution, IDF sources were positive about Iranian forces leaving Syria in large numbers.
They said that only a smaller group of Iranian forces remain compared to before the fall of the Assad regime – something which had continuously worried Israeli officials for over a decade.
end
SYRIA/TURKEY/USA
USA rushes in to contain the back stabbing Turkey inside Syria
(zerohedge)
US Rushes To Contain Turkey-Backed Offensive Against Its SDF Proxy In Syria
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 02:00 PM
The US government is scrambling to address a Turkish-backed offensive targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Turkish officials have announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Ankara on Friday. A statement from the State Department indicated that Blinken will discuss the importance of ensuring that the transition process and the formation of a new government in Syria respect the rights of minorities and prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism.
Washington was reportedly caught off guard by the rapid overthrow of Assad by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-aligned forces, which occurred in just 11 days. Reports suggest that US officials had been attempting to negotiate a deal with Assad that would have normalized his position in exchange for severing ties with Hezbollah and Iran.
The US has expressed concern over Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) operations targeting the SDF, a US partner force.
Buffer zone
These operations have resulted in the seizure of areas including Tal Rifaat and Manbij, which had been under SDF control earlier this month. By securing Tal Rifaat and Manbij, Turkey has solidified its control over key areas west of the Euphrates, creating a buffer zone along its borders.
Following the capture of Manbij, the SNA crossed the Euphrates River and seized the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, a site of significant historical and cultural importance linked to the Ottoman Empire. The move triggered an outrcy from the SDF, raising concerns that the front would move towards the heavily populated city of Kobane.
Turkey has long regarded the SDF as an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), despite its rebranding and its partnership with the US in the fight against the Islamic State (IS).
A Turkish official told Middle East Eye that Blinken was probably coming to ensure that the SNA wouldn’t progress towards Kobane or Ayn al Arab, as known in Arabic. “Turkey will maintain military pressure because some officials in the US are facilitating talks between the SDF and Israel in a last-minute attempt to secure the group’s future,” a person familiar with the issue told MEE.
Raised eyebrows
Israeli public broadcaster Kann last week revealed that the first official talks between Tel Aviv and the SDF leadership took place earlier this month. This development has raised eyebrows, as senior Israeli officials have begun adopting rhetoric supportive of the Syrian Kurdish group.
Meanwhile, US Central Command (Centcom) Commander General Michael Kurilla visited northeastern Syria on Tuesday, reiterating US support for the SDF as an anti-IS partner force.
Murat Yesiltas, a senior expert at the Ankara-based think tank Seta, argues that Ankara aims to strengthen its position during Donald Trump’s term by undermining the SDF as much as possible. Trump had repeatedly voiced his intention to withdraw US forces from Syria during his first term, but pressure from the Pentagon and a US media campaign limited his efforts, resulting in only a partial pullback in 2019.
Yesiltas told MEE he does not believe Ankara will escalate the situation by launching a major operation in areas such as Kobane or Qamishli, which are heavily populated with civilians. “However, there is a sense that the Americans are seeking a grand bargain to resolve the SDF issue,” Yesiltas said. “But Blinken and others only have one month left in office, so any deal must be negotiated with the incoming Trump administration. The new Syria increasingly appears united, and autonomy for a few million people in the country seems unlikely.”
A separate source familiar with the situation noted that the threat posed by SDF-controlled areas is higher than ever, despite the loss of Manbij and Tal Rifaat.
“The Syrian regime previously maintained a civil and military presence in areas like Hasakah and Qamishli, but they are no longer there. This absence provides the SDF with an opportunity to resemble a state more than ever before,” the source said.
Recent footage from last week shows that many residents in predominantly Arab areas such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor are growing intolerant of SDF rule, particularly now that the threat of Assad’s return has diminished.
Internal strife
Many in Ankara anticipate that the SDF will continue to face internal strife in Arab-majority areas. Yesiltas also highlighted immediate issues that Turkey wants to discuss with Blinken, including the transition process in Damascus.
“Turkey could play a key role in assisting the international community with the removal of Syria’s remaining chemical weapons,” Yesiltas added. “Although Israel has reportedly targeted some research facilities and sites, these types of attacks alone are not sufficient to fully eliminate them.”
The State Department confirmed that Blinken will also address efforts to ensure that Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles are secured and safely destroyed.
end
SYRIAN SIDE/DRUZE
This sect has quite a history. They are basically “married to their land” i.e. they have a spiritual connection to it. Thus in days past you could have had Syrian Druze fighting Israel Druze. In the Golan there is a big community of Druze on both sides of the border and they tell their story….
On Syrian border in war-struck Majdal Shams, (SYRIAN SIDE),Assad’s fall sparks hope for Israel’s Druze
While some Golan Heights residents dream of seeing their relatives in Syria again, others express ‘complicated’ emotions, reconsidering their identity and where they belong
By Diana Bletter FollowToday, 10:08 am
A boy rides past the border fence between Syria and Israel at Majdal Shams on December 9, 2024. (Diana Bletter/Times of Israel)
MAJDAL SHAMS — The border fence in the valley on the edge of this Golan Heights Druze town used to be known as the “shouting fence,” where people on the Israeli side and their relatives and friends on the Syrian side yelled to one another and traded news.
“That was before WhatsApp and Zoom,” quipped one resident who did not want her name used on Monday, the day after the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Syrians around the world have taken to the streets to celebrate the end of Assad’s dictatorship, and the Druze in Majdal Shams have also held parades through the town that is part of the strategic Golan plateau captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War and later effectively annexed by Israel in 1981.
The community is excited about the sudden change in Syrian politics, and their joy is also personal. For 57 years, families in the Golan Heights, including Majdal Shams and three other towns, Ein Qiniyye, Mas’ade, and Buq’ata, have been cut off from their Syrian relatives, with a UN-patrolled buffer zone slicing down between both sides, and a single crossing point.
Israel and Syria are still officially in a state of war, but some 20,000 Druze residents in the Golan Heights now have hopes that the new government could allow them the possibility of visiting their relatives again.
The fall of Assad is “good news,” said Em Nasim Nabih, wearing a traditional Druze white veil over her head, but not covering her mouth as some traditional women do, as she passed near the border fence.
An IDF tank stands by the border fence between Israel and Syria in Majdal Shams on December 9, 2024. (Lindy Barnett)
The Syrian event seems like a lucky omen less than five months after a devastating Hezbollah attack on July 27, which killed 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field in the center of the town.
It was the single deadliest Hezbollah attack since the terror group began striking northern Israel on October 8, 2023, one day after Hamas-led terrorists launched the surprise attack in southern Israel, slaughtering some 1,200 people in southern Israel and abducting 251 hostages.
Throughout the war with Hezbollah — which was halted on November 27 with a 60-day ceasefire — Majdal Shams residents were living in a war zone.
“Until this moment, we didn’t have peace,” Nabih said.
People at the scene of a deadly Hezbollah missile attack at a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights, in which 12 children were killed, on July 29, 2024. (Michael Giladi/Flash90)
When asked about her political ties and loyalties, however, Nabih told a reporter for The Times of Israel that she did not want to talk about whether the Golan Heights “is Syrian or Israeli.”
She lives on the Golan Heights, she said and feels an ancestral, spiritual attachment to the land. She made it a point to emphasize her ties to the land she lives on – not necessarily to the leaders who govern it.
“We never left our homes when the area went from Syria to Israel,” she said. “We are here.”
Nabih also expressed her hope that the new government “will listen to the needs of the people.”
The rooftops of Majdal Shams facing the valley and hills of Syria on December 9, 2024. (Diana Bletter/Times of Israel)
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a lightning offensive with other rebel groups, seizing government-held territory and capturing Damascus on Sunday. Al-Golani, who now uses his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has tried to reassure minorities that he will not interfere with them. In Aleppo, which the rebels captured a week ago, there have been no reports of reprisals.
Yet many Syrians remain fearful that the HTS group will impose draconian Islamist rule because of its former ties with al Qaeda.
The Druze, a mystic sect that broke away from Shiite Islam in the 11th century, are considered heretical to Sunni Islam and have been targeted by radical Islamic groups. Some residents expressed concern that al-Golani might turn into an enemy of the Druze.
The leader of Syria’s Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that headed a lightning rebel offensive, snatching Damascus from government control, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, addresses a crowd at the capital’s landmark Umayyad Mosque, on December 8, 2024. (Aref Tammawi/AFP)
Mountain village with a cosmopolitan accent
The main street of Majdal Shams, on a rugged edge of Mt. Hermon — known in Arabic as Jabal al-Sheik or mountain of the sheikh — has the feel of a mountain village, but with a cosmopolitan accent. There are upscale coffee houses, as well as clothing and cosmetic shops, along with the scent of wood-burning stoves. Instead of the black flags of mourning that were displayed after Hezbollah’s attack, today there is a large flag of the Syrian opposition hanging in the town’s main square.
Syria’s new era has given Druze residents a sense of pride in the country that had only engendered hopelessness during the years of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011. Assad’s fall has also stirred complicated questions of identity, loyalty, and belonging.
Some of the Druze in the Golan Heights characterize themselves as “Golanis” and, unlike the 150,000 Druze who live in other parts of Israel, do not hold Israeli citizenship or serve in the IDF. Elsewhere in Israel, the Druze accepted Israeli sovereignty after the state’s founding in 1948 and generally identify as Israelis. Men from those Druze communities serve in the IDF.
A large Syrian opposition flag hangs in the center square of Majdal Shams on December 9, 2024. (Lindy Barnett)
The “Golanis” express an ambivalent, ambiguous relationship with Israel and an unfamiliar yet faithful relationship with Syria, a country that some of them have never visited and yet call “home.”
Among the crowd of residents and journalists gathered near the border fence was Wassim Safadi, a videographer who was born in Majdal Shams.
He watched Israeli soldiers guarding the fence, facing the hills of Syria. Soon after the fall of Assad’s government on Sunday, the IDF captured the buffer zone in the northern Golan Heights without facing any resistance. The military said the move was purely to ensure that attacks are not carried out against Israel.
Residents in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights celebrate on December 8, 2024, after Islamist-led rebels declared that they had taken the Syrian capital in a lightning offensive, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Jalaa Marey/ AFP)
Safadi mused about Assad’s fall. He said he watched the videos of prisoners being freed in Syria.
“What criminal mind could do that to his own people?” Safadi asked rhetorically. “He pretended to be a leader of the Syrian world, but we see he’s a coward.”
Safadi said that he hopes to visit his sister, who left Majdal Shams for Syria to get married in 2008. He has not seen her since.
However, he also expressed anger: “We see how Israeli authorities treat us,” he said. “We pay taxes here in Israel, but we’re still treated as third-class citizens. We hope that, one day, we will be able to live in equality here.”
The Education Ministry announced in November a new school curriculum that will cover Druze history, culture, religion, and society, including “the historical context between the Druze community and the State of Israel.”
Israeli-Druze bride Arin Safadi, 24, departs through the United Nations buffer zone at the Quneitra crossing in the Golan Heights to marry a Syrian-Druze groom, September 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Dan Balilty/File)
Transition
Linda Hassan sells brooms made of twigs, embroidered mats, and homemade specialties that she said are only made in the Golan Heights, including rendered sheep fat with bits of meat.
“We’re happy about what happened in Syria now, but we’re also afraid,” she said. “When there’s a transition, you don’t know what will be next.”
In Israel, Golan’s Druze are considered permanent residents with access to healthcare, education, and other social services and freedom of movement inside Israel. Hassan said that one reason Druze in the Golan Heights could not join the Israeli Army is that “we’d be fighting against our cousins.”
“Our lives are good here,” she said. “But our hearts are with Syria.”
Linda Hassan stands next to her homemade produce in Majdal Shams on December 9, 2024. (Lindy Barnett)
There was an uptick in the number of Golan Heights Druze requesting Israeli citizenship in 2022 because of the Syrian civil war. But most opt instead for permanent residency, out of concern that their acceptance of Israeli sovereignty might endanger their family members across the border in Syria.
There is also some fear that the community could be accused of treason by Damascus authorities, should the region be returned to Syria, according to Col. (Ret.) Sarit Zehavi, founder of the Alma Center, an Israeli research institute focused on the security challenges in the north.
On the main street of Majdal Shams, Kinana Ibrahim stood inside a clothing store surrounded by brand-name jeans, bomber jackets, and trendy baseball caps.
“It’s very complicated. Nobody knows what will be,” the 22-year-old Ibrahim said.
Kinana Ibrahim stands in the clothing store where she works in Majdal Shams on December 9, 2024. (Diana Bletter/Times of Israel)
Although Israeli-born, she does not want an Israeli passport. She fantasizes about seeing Syria, which she has often heard about.
“It’s beautiful there, but life is hard,” she said. “A lot of people dream of visiting Syria.”
She added that some in the village also dream about returning Majdal Shams to Syria, a topic that others were reticent to address.
“I was born in Israel, but I am Syrian in my heart,” she said.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
I have noticed some in the anti-COVID Malone Bancel et al. mRNA technology gene-based platform injection calling NOT for HARD-STOP but for MORATORIUM; I warn them stop the crap, no MORATORIUM, must be
immediate complete stop & stop playing games with words, semantics, Makary, Bhattacharya etc. will call for a complete stop & withdrawal (if confirmed), do not confuse them! they have no other choice
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 11 |
also, stop playing games you anti-COVID Malone Sahin Weissman et al. mRNA technology gene-based platform injection people, you know it is ‘mRNA injections’, stop the fraud with ‘modified’ or ‘modRNA’…again, stop the games with language…you know this ‘mod’ is put there to get the technology inventors out of the hot water they are in (not asked to testify under oath etc.) and to confuse the public…so why would you join in the game? you are trying to absolve criminals? do you benefit? what do you get for this? what incentive? modified or not with uracil or uridine insert is not the issue, any form of mRNA technology since it was brought out have been harmful in animals, and as we have seen, in humans, in all models and you damn well know that it must be encased in the lipid-nano particle (LNP) casing to be protected, hidden, and taken deep and far inside the body and the LNP is toxic and deadly e.g. PEG, cationic lipids, ionizable lipids etc….so it cannot not be safe, no part of it, there is reverse transcription into the human genome, mRNA, modified mRNA, whatever you wish to shill it as, and thus stop the bull with ‘modified’…we the people are not idiots, we know what you are doing and have been sent out to do.
The message has to be clear by POTUS Trump based on what has happened with the Malone et al. mRNA gene injection, which is (and immediately on swearing in on January 20th 2025):
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
para “I call for an immediate stop, cessation of any and all mRNA technology and related products (call it mRNA or modified mRNA as there is no distinction as per this order), any and all mRNA technology gene injections, vaccines and related products, immediately; take this as an order and there is to be no moratorium, I am calling for a complete 100% stop and all products removed with witnessed destruction; go and do your research especially safety studies that you did not do prior, and spend 100 years before you bring that death to me again or anyone again….and btw, go buy these 2 books and read them…”
At the same time, the heads, Directors and Commissioners of the NIH, NIAID, HHS, CDC, and FDA must echo same in clear unambiguous statements, January 20th 2025. On taking office.
“All of the following points addressed to FDA, NIH, NIAID, and CDC (call to action) apply to HHS under Robert Kennedy Jr. in the case of actions it the HHS must also take:
EVOL NEWS
| ATEST NEWS: |
SLAY NEWS
| Major Study Confirms Covid-Vaxxed Cause Side Effects in Unvaccinated PeopleA major new peer-reviewed study has confirmed that unvaccinated people can suffer from the harmful side effects of Covid mRNA “vaccines” by just being around people who have received the injections.READ MORE |
| Thousands of Doctors & Scientists Sign Petition Demanding Covid ‘Vaccine’ Ban Due to ‘Alarming Rise in Disability & Excess Deaths’Thousands of doctors, scientists, and academics have signed a groundbreaking petition calling on governments around the world to issue an immediate ban on Covid mRNA “vaccines” due to an “alarming rise in disability and excess deaths” among those who received the injections.READ MORE |
| Woman Killed During ‘Swatting’ Hoax on Marjorie Taylor Greene’s HomeA woman has been killed during a police response to an apparent “swatting” hoax at the home of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) in Georgia.READ MORE |
| Hundreds of Deadly Virus Samples Reported ‘Missing’ from Biolab, Scientists Warn They Could Be ‘Weaponized’Scientists are raising the alarm after hundreds of vials of deadly virus samples have reportedly gone “missing” from a virology laboratory.READ MORE |
| Biden Admin Gloats over First-Ever ‘Climate Change’ ArrestPresident Joe Biden’s administration has reportedly arrested somebody for alleged “climate change” offenses.READ MORE |
| Illinois Supreme Court Rejects Emergency Motion to Release Former Cop Charged with MurderThe Illinois Supreme Court has rejected an emergency appeal to move up a pre-trial release hearing for a former police officer accused of murder.READ MORE |
| Trump Confirms He Will Pardon Jan 6 Defendants on Day OnePresident Donald Trump has confirmed that he plans to issue pardons for Jan. 6 defendants on his first day in office.READ MORE |
| Video Show Bidens Ignoring Kamala Harris at Kennedy Center HonorsVideo footage from the Kennedy Center Honors appears to show President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden awkwardly ignoring failed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris.READ MORE |
| Beyonce’s World Tour & NFL Christmas Show in Jeopardy over Diddy Links, Child Abuse Allegations Against Jay-ZPop superstar Beyonce may be about to watch her career take a severe nosedive as her links to disgraced rap mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs and allegations of child rape against her husband Jay-Z emerge.READ MORE |
| BLM Calls on ‘Black Vigilantes’ to Respond with Violence to Daniel Penny’s AcquittalBlack Lives Matter’s New York chapter has called on “black vigilantes” to take to the streets in a violent response to Marine veteran Daniel Penny’s Monday acquittal in court.READ MORE |
| Whoopi Goldberg Triggers Outrage on ‘The View’ by Telling Viewers NOT to ‘Panic’ About TrumpThe co-hosts of “The View” erupted in outrage after Whoopi Goldberg advised viewers to focus on their families and not “panic” about President Donald Trump’s second term.READ MORE |
| UnitedHealthcare CEO Murder Suspect Arrested by PolicePolice have arrested a suspect believed to be responsible for the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, according to reports.READ MORE |
| 15-Year-Old Volleyball Player Dies Suddenly After Collapsing in ‘Physical Distress’A Georgia high school volleyball player has tragically died suddenly during her team’s practice.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| Report: Christopher Wray Preparing Resignation as FBI DirectorFBI Director Christopher Wray plans to resign on or before Inauguration Day, according to recent reports. The move, widely seen as preemptive, reflects growing pressure from Republican lawmakers, led by Senator Charles Grassley, and signals yet another shift in leadership for an agency that has been at the center of political and institutional controversies over the past several years. While …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Ex-Classmate of UnitedHealthcare CEO’s Suspected Shooter Speaks OutA former high school classmate of the person of interest identified and detained Monday in the apparent assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson spoke to The Gateway Pundit on Monday, expressing incredulity over the incident. Authorities identified Luigi Mangione, a 26-year-old former Ivy League student at UPenn, as a person of interest in the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| WATCH: Large explosions in Syria as Israel destroys Assad’s arsenal of weapons and planesIsrael is very busy bombing potential threats in Syria left behind by Bashar al-Assad, which include chemical weapons and military jets, among other things. Here’s video of one big explosion that is said to have left a chemical smell in the air: Some are reporting that Israel is targeting Assad’s chemical weapons near Damascus right now pic.twitter.com/Yu9Nj0bom2 — Open Source …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump Reveals Exchange with Jill Biden at Notre Dame CathedralPresident-elect Donald Trump stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is prepared for “peace” as he shared details of his meetings with world leaders—and First Lady Jill Biden—during his weekend trip to Paris for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral. On Sunday, Trump revealed insights from his discussions with global leaders during his first international trip since securing a second term, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Florida House Member Switches from Democrat to RepublicanFlorida, which has grown increasingly red and seen plenty of red waves over recent years, already enjoys trifecta control in the state government. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis will have one more fellow Republican, though, with state Rep. Susan Valdes switching her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican. Her district includes West Tampa, with such a party change being effective immediately. …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRICS
CANADA
Loonie Strengthens After BoC Slashes Rates By 50bps Again, Blames De-Growth On Trump & Immigration
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 09:57 AM
The Bank of Canada just slashed rates by 50bps (to 3.25%) – as expected – and the second 50bps cut in a row as the central bank claimed growth looks weaker than expected… but they were careful to tamp down any exuberance over future cuts.
The bank said it cut by 50 basis points to “support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range,” citing inflation near 2%, excess supply, and softer-than-expected growth.
The decision was expected by markets and most economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Slightly hawkish shift in language…
- The central bank said it will be “evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.”
- By comparison, October’s policy statement said that “if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further.”
Who’s to blame for the slower growth? Trump and Immigration…
Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US has “increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook,” the bank said.
“No one knows how this will play out in the months ahead — whether tariffs will be imposed, whether exemptions get agreed, or whether retaliatory measures will be put in place,” Governor Tiff Macklem said.
Lower immigration targets mean GDP growth next year will likely be weaker than forecast in October, the bank said.
Inflation impacts will likely be muted as lower immigration reduces both demand and supply.
Additionally, the bank mentioned other government policies and said it won’t react to temporary effects, placing more emphasis on underlying trends in inflation. A temporary sales tax holiday will lower inflation to around 1.5% in January, but the effect should be unwound after mid-February.
BoC’s Macklem says:
- “Monetary policy no longer needs to be clearly in restrictive territory”; previous “cuts will be working their way through the economy”
- “Economy remains in excess supply and the growth outlook now appears softer than we projected in October”.
- “We will be looking at measures of core inflation to help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.”
- “We expect the GST [tax] holiday to temporarily lower inflation to around VA% in January, but that effect will be unwound after the GST break ends in mid- February.”
- “The economic outlook is clouded by the possibility of new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States.”
- “Our policy focus now is to keep inflation dose to target.”
- “We want to see growth pick up to absorb the unused capacity in the economy and keep inflation dose to 2%.”
- “We thought elevated shelter price inflation would continue to ease, and it has.”
The Loonie strengthened on the BoC’s move
Source: Bloomberg
Canadian stocks advanced, while bonds pared gains after BoC rate cut.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0502 DOWN 30 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 152.65 UP 0.799 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2737 DOWN .0041
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4185 DOWN 0.0011 (CDN DOLLAR UP 11 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.88 PTS OR 0.29%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 156.23 OR 0.77%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.46%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 156.23 PTS OR 0.77%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.88 PTS OR 0.29%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.46%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 4.65 PTS OR 0.01%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2695.90
silver:$31.68
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.32 UP 24 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.508% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.059% DOWN 0 AND 5/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.737 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.18 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1125 UP 0 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0497 DOWN .0035 OR 35 basis points
USA/Japan: 152.15 UP 0.308 OR YEN IS DOWN 31 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.3524 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0046 OR 11 BASIS pts to 1.4130
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED D0WN 7.2733 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2755)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.87 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.059
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.216% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.419 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.114 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2707.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.97
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 21.26 PTS OR 0.26%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 70.000 OR 0.34%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 28.62 PTS OR 0.39%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 176.20 OR 1.47%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 206.61 OR 0.60%
WTI Oil price 69,34 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 72.86 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 107.37 ROUBLE DOWN 4 AND 33/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1125 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3524 UP 1 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.078 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.878 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0494 DOWN 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2749 DOWN 0.0030 OR 30 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.375 UP 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.059
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.54 UP 0.701 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4157 DOWN 0.0017 CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.49
Brent OIL: 73.70
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.270
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 4.4760%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.1557
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.112 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.912 UP 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.36 UP 28 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.82 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 105.50 UP 2 AND 45/100 roubles
GOLD 2,719.65 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.99 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 99.27 PTS OR 0.22%
NASDAQ up 395.80 PTS OR 1.85%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.61 UP 0.51 PTS OR 4.02%
GLD: $250.96 UP 2.37 OR 0.95%
SLV/ $29.04 UP 0.05 OR 00.07%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: up 157.37 PTS OR 0.60%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING
Sell Bonds, Buy Everything Else’ – Rate-Cut Hopes Soar As Markets Shrug Off Hot-flation
MORNING TRADING/
END
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
this is a big problem!! Do not worry Biden is fast asleep
(zerohedge)
Watch: Congressman Warns Iranian Mothership Lurking Off Coast Responsible For New Jersey Drone Scare
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 01:40 PM
Republican Congressman Jefferson Van Drew of New Jersey, a member of both the House Judiciary Committee and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, told Fox News’ Harris Faulkner around noon that government sources have informed him that mysterious drones in New Jersey skies at night originate from an Iranian “mothership” stationed off the US East Coast.
“Here’s the real deal Harris …. and I’ve gotten to know people. And from very high sources, very qualified sources, and very responsible sources… I’m going to tell you the real deal: Iran launched a mothership – probably about a month ago that contains these drones and is off the US East Coast,” Van Drew said.
Van Drew continued, “Know that Iran made a deal with China to purchase drones – motherships and technology to go forward. The sources I know are good.”
He emphasized, “These drones should be shot down,” adding the military “is on alert with this.”
Our coverage of the situation:
- Nov. 19: Spy Drones? “Unusual Activity” Reported Over Morris County, New Jersey, Near Military Research Facility
- Dec. 3: Mysterious ‘Car-Sized Drones’ Over New Jersey Prompt FBI Investigation
A resident of Montville, NJ, claimed one of these ‘truck-sized drones’ crashed on Beverwck Road.
This is all taking place in what is supposed to be some of the world’s most controlled airspace, second only to Baltimore-Washington airspace.
Since no one believed the aliens invading NJ narrative, we’re back to Iran-China World War III.
end
big problem!
Landlords Increasingly Faced With Squatters, Sometimes With Deadly Consequences
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A property manager in Phoenix says that dealing with itinerant “squatters” is one of the least pleasant parts of the real estate business.
Sometimes, you can’t control what happens, Calvin Favata with Your Holdings told The Epoch Times.
Rashaad Johnson, 29, had been renting a Your Holdings unit in South Phoenix for about two months and never had any trouble. But he was a “nice guy” who sometimes let squatters who lived in the vacant house across the street use his bathroom shower, Favata said.
Favata said the shower situation soon “got out of hand,” and the company had to stop it.
“We even put padlocks and deadbolt [locks] on the bathroom doors so they couldn’t use it,” Favata said.
On Oct. 14, one of the squatters asked Johnson to use the shower, but when he refused, the man dressed in body armor allegedly told Johnson he was going to get his gun.
The man returned and killed Johnson, as well as wounding another tenant, a 32-year-old woman who was with him.
Phoenix police charged Refugio Jimenez, 49, with first-degree murder and burglary, including misconduct involving body armor, felony drug possession, and other crimes.
Favata said that Johnson’s senseless death was apparently “over a shower.”
“Since then, I’ve been here every day. We’ve got cameras back up,” Favata told The Epoch Times as he picked up tools from the back of his company truck outside the residence.
He said squatters have always been an issue and it’s hard to get rid of them. The situation has gotten worse in the Phoenix area in recent months.
“It’s pretty much any house you see that’s vacant. I thought it would be pretty much here and there,” Favata said.
“The one [property] we just bought, I had to do all the electrical and plumbing. They took all the copper out of the house.”
‘Snowbirds’ Targeted
Scott Blake is the constable for the Hassayampa District, one of the largest districts in Arizona’s Maricopa County. The district includes Phoenix.
Blake, like Favata, said he has seen more squatters in recent months. The situation appears driven by increasing homelessness, rent costs, and the snowbird phenomenon.
In the summer, thousands of snowbirds will leave their Arizona property for milder climates and return in the winter. Some seasonal residents return to find a total stranger living in their home and refusing to leave.
“There is a group of people in society that wants to live for as little as possible. If they can live for free, they do,” Blake said.
“It’s more frequent than it ever was. I see it once a week now. A lot of times, when the squatter is confronted by law enforcement, they will leave. It’s very rare that it goes as far as me.”
Blake said that the shooting in Phoenix shows what can happen when a landlord or tenant confronts an alleged squatter.
Recent incidents in other states have put the issue in the spotlight.
Two suspected squatters were arrested in March for allegedly killing an apartment resident in New York City and stuffing her body inside a duffel bag in Pennsylvania, according to news reports.
In October, Los Angeles police said that a homeowner in Van Nuys was attacked by a suspected squatter. The homeowner managed to pin down the trespasser when officers arrived.
Another alleged squatter was arrested in May for first and second-degree murder in the fatal shooting of two men hired to clean a house, local media reported.
Blake said that getting rid of a squatter is an often complicated matter, and each state has its version of “squatters rights.”
According to turbotenant.com, squatters in Arizona can make landlords’ lives extremely difficult once they’ve settled into a property.
“Even more anxiety-inducing, if a squatter stays on a property long enough and meets specific requirements, they might eventually be able to claim it as their own through a legal process called adverse possession,” the website stated.
A Notice to Vacate is issued to squatters to leave the property within a certain period to begin the eviction process under Arizona law. The next step is to file an eviction lawsuit in court to remove squatters.
Blake said that the entire process can take up to 21 days.
“In Arizona, we are blessed with one of the fastest eviction procedures in the United States,” he said. “In some states like California, the process can take as long as a year.”
An ‘Invasion’ of Squatters
The Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles (AAGLA) reports that squatters have become a significant problem in California and across the United States.
“Thousands of properties across America are being invaded by squatters, who move in and live rent-free causing major damage, or in worse cases, injury or death to property owners—and there’s really no expedient, easy legal way for property owners or the police to remove them,” according to the organization’s website.
The group said the internet and dark forums have become a clearinghouse for advice on how to break into someone else’s home and “establish a right to be there.”
Blake said that, in some cases, a squatter may produce a fake lease to show police, who then treat squatting as a civil matter.
Read the rest here…
END
Billions are sent to Ukraine and no money for North Carolinians victims of the hurricane?
(EpochTimes)
Hurricane Helene Recovery In North Carolina Town Fueled By Devoted Locals
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024 – 05:40 PM
Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Nestled in the mountains of Yancey County in western North Carolina, Burnsville looks like a town that might feature in a Norman Rockwell painting or a Hallmark Christmas movie.
Even before Thanksgiving, the town square was decorated for Christmas. Antique shops, cafes, and coffee houses dot Main Street, bustling with activity. On the surface, it appears to be a typical holiday season, but all is not as it seems. Two months after Hurricane Helene struck the region, Burnsville and Yancey County are still on a long path to recovery.
Crystal Capps, a real estate agent whose family has lived in Yancey County for several generations, said immediate and long-term assistance is essential for ensuring locals’ safety and enabling them to remain in the region.
“There is a sense of urgency. Winter weather is here. People are tough in these mountains, but it’s cold— too cold for people to be sleeping in tents and in their cars,” Capps told The Epoch Times. “I saw houses floating down the river when Helene hit. I’ll never forget that. For those who survived but are displaced, they need help.”
Capps is one of several Burnsville natives, including many friends from Mountain Heritage High School, who serve on the board of the Appalachian Disaster Coalition.
“We have a lot of work to do, but we have hope, and we are doing all we can to give hope to people who are struggling,” she said.
Bradley Honeycutt was born and raised in Yancey County. His parents live on a 48-acre mountainside property and have cattle and horses.
Honeycutt helped start the Appalachian Disaster Coalition just days after the storm. He was born and raised here and graduated in 2006 from Mountain Heritage High School.
Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 hurricane. It left a swath of destruction throughout the Southeast extending to western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.
Raging floodwaters and landslides from Hurricane Helene reached western North Carolina on Sept. 27, devastating urban and rural communities and severely damaging roads, homes, and power sources.
Just before Helene hit, storms drenched Asheville and surrounding western North Carolina towns when a weather front stalled over the Appalachian Mountains. Some areas received more than a foot of rain, saturating the land before Helene arrived.
Hundreds of roads were blocked or completely washed away, requiring rescue crews to reach victims by mule, horseback, and on foot. Search and rescue efforts, and delivery of supplies, were challenging because many residents who live on a mountainside only have one way in and one way out.
Honeycutt heard about what was happening in western North Carolina on the news. He tried to reach his parents all day on Sept. 27.
Finally, a cousin connected a Starlink terminal to a generator, enabling internet access, and contacted him through Facebook Messenger, he told The Epoch Times.
“It’s really bad,” he was told. “We don’t know what the rest of the county looks like, and we have not heard from your mom and dad,” his cousin said.
Honeycutt booked a flight to Charlotte and arrived at his parents’ property on Sept. 28.
“They weren’t there when I got to the house. I knew they were safe because the generators were running and the lights were on. When they pulled into the driveway, we hugged and talked for around an hour. Then I said, ‘I gotta go and see what I can do.’” he said.
Honeycutt contacted friends who had experience with search and rescue after disasters. They traveled to Yancey County to help.
Friends in Dallas, where he is finishing a degree in architecture and design with the intent to return to Burnsville and open a business, established social media accounts under the name “Bradley Loves Burnsville.”
The accounts gained followers, and Honeycutt outlined the area’s immediate needs to them.
“We needed propane. We needed gas. Before we knew it, a tanker with 11,000 gallons of gas arrived. Necessities and other items like generators started coming in. It was chaos,” Honeycutt said. “There was no outside communication since cell phones didn’t work. No water. No power. It was dark, and we were on our own.”
Recognizing immediate and long-term needs for temporary and permanent housing, and trauma therapy, Honeycutt established an incorporated nonprofit called Appalachian Disaster Coalition.
The current priority is getting displaced residents into campers and temporary homes, Honeycutt said. The group has partnered with other nonprofits to expand their capabilities. Eventually, they plan to build 30 three-bedroom, two-bath, single-family homes for locals in Yancey County.
Appalachian Disaster Coalition and other independent groups are important in ensuring the town isn’t forgotten, Honeycutt said.
Read the rest here…
END
MACYS
Accounting error sends Macys shares tumbling: earning only $2.25 to $2.50 per share or so
(zerohedge)
Accounting Error Sends Macy’s Shares Tumbling; Goldman Calls Earnings “Disappointing”
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 09:15 AM
Macy’s reported its financial results for the third quarter on Wednesday and slashed its outlook after concluding an investigation into an employee who intentionally hid $151 million in delivery expenses from the fourth quarter of 2021 through the third quarter of this year.
During an earnings call on Wednesday morning, Macy’s CEO Tony Spring told investors that “integrity is paramount at Macy’s,” adding, “The responsible individual is no longer with the company, following discovery of their actions.”
Spring continued, “We’ve also identified and begun to implement additional controls to be a stronger and more disciplined organization so that an action like this could not happen again.”
In late November, Macy’s delayed its third-quarter report due to an investigation and forensic analysis that specified a “single employee with responsibility for small package delivery expense accounting intentionally made erroneous accounting accrual entries to hide approximately $132 to $154 million of cumulative delivery expenses from the fourth quarter of 2021 through fiscal quarter ended November 2, 2024.”
As a result, the department store chain lowered its full-year guidance, estimating an impact of $79 million. Adjusted earnings per share were revised downward to a range of $2.25 to $2.50, compared to a previous forecast of as high as $2.90 in August.
However, Macy’s raised its full-year sales forecast …
Here’s the revised full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Sees adjusted EPS $2.25 to $2.50, saw $2.55 to $2.90
- Sees net sales $22.3 billion to $22.5 billion, saw $22.1 billion to $22.4 billion
- Sees gross margin rate 38.2% to 38.3%, saw 39% to 39.2%
Here’s what the retailer reported for the third quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Adjusted EPS 4.0c vs. 21c y/y, estimate 3.5c (Bloomberg Consensus)
- EPS 10c vs. 15c y/y
- Total revenue $4.90 billion, estimate $4.91 billion
- Net sales $4.74 billion, -2.4% y/y, estimate $4.76 billion
- Gross margin 39.6% vs. 40.3% y/y, estimate 40.4%
- Inventory $6.26 billion, +3.9% y/y, estimate $5.65 billion
- SG&A expense $2.06 billion vs. $2.04 billion y/y, estimate $2.07 billion
- Owned basis comparable sales -2.4%
- Owned plus licensed comparable sales -1.3%, estimate -1.39%
Shares of Macy’s fell in premarket trading, down about 11%. On the year, shares closed down 17% on Tuesday.
Commenting on the earnings report, Goldman’s Brooke Roach and Evan Dorschner called the results “disappointing” …
M reported adj. F3Q24 EPS of $0.04, below GSe at $0.08 and in line with Factset consensus. Owned reported comps at -2.4% and retail sales of $4.742bn were in line with preliminary results announced on November 25th, 2024. However, profit was reported below expectations, with gross margins contracting to 39.6% as a % of retail sales, below GS/consensus at 40.5%/40.4%. This more than offset well-controlled SG&A, driving adj. EBIT to 0.9% vs. GS/consensus 1.2%/1.4%. Inventories were in line preliminary results.
On the forward outlook, M lowered its EPS guidance to $2.25-$2.50 (vs. $2.55-$2.90 prior), compared to GS/consensus at $2.75/$2.73. Within this, $0.21 of the reduction in guidance was driven by the adjustment to delivery expense following the company’s concluded accounting investigation. Beyond the delivery expense adjustment, Macy’s further reduced its EPS guide, now calling for lower gross margins and adj. EBITDA margins despite a stronger comp forecast. For 4Q, Macy’s guide for $7.8-8.0bn in net sales and $1.40-$1.65 of EPS compares to consensus at $7.7bn and $1.87, respectively. After adjusting for delivery expense in 4Q at $0.17, M’s 4Q guide is below consensus.
This is a disappointing result for Macy’s. While we are encouraged by the company’s stronger comp trend (especially in comparison with peers), we believe investors will focus on the company’s lower gross margin guidance and weaker EPS outlook for the year.
The analysts maintain a “Buy” rating on Macy’s with a 12-month price target of $20. This PT is based on 3.5x Q5-Q8 EV/EBITDA and includes a $1 per share contribution value from the retailer’s real estate.
Macy’s is currently undergoing a turnaround effort. The struggling retailer is a current activist target of Barington Capital and the private equity firm Thor Equities, which advocate for reducing administrative costs, trimming inventory, selling luxury brand stores, and exploring sales of its real estate portfolio.
end
Re-Inflation Continues –
November Consumer Prices Surge Most Since April//CPI for today:
inflation rises .3% m/m
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 08:39 AM
Having accelerated MoM for the past four months, analysts expected today’s CPI print (for November) will rise once again to +0.3% MoM and they were dead on (the biggest MoM rise since April). The 0.3% MoM rise pushed headline CPI up 2.7% YoY – the highest since July…
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI also rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pushed it up 3.3% YoY (not even close to the 2% mandate)…
Source: Bloomberg
There has not been a single monthly decrease in core consumer prices since Biden too office.
There is a silver lining however, with so-called SuperCore CPI – Services Ex Shelter – rising just 0.19% MoM which leaves it +4.3% YoY (the lowest inflationary print since Dec 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
Services inflation continues to slow (but remains very hot) as goods deflation is rapidly reversing…
Source: Bloomberg
Even The WSJ’s Fed Whisperer is not loving this re-ignition of inflation…
On a three-month annualized basis, it is only energy’s deflation that is holding CPI back from a much bigger surge with Food Costs up nearly 4%…
Source: Bloomberg
CPI Highlights:
- The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase.
- The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent.
- The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.
CPI Core:
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, as it did in each of the previous 3 months.
- Indexes that increased in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles, and recreation.
- The index for communication was among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.
Details:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, as it did in the preceding 3 months.
- The shelter index increased 0.3 percent in November. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent over the month, as did the index for rent, the smallest 1-month increases since April 2021 and July 2021, respectively.
- The lodging away from home index rose 3.2 percent in November, after rising 0.4 percent in October
- The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month, the same as it did in October. The index for physicians’ services increased 0.3 percent in November, while the prescription drugs index fell 0.4 percent over the month.
- The hospital services index was unchanged in November.
- The used cars and trucks index rose 2.0 percent in November, after rising 2.7 percent in the previous month.
- The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.6 percent over the month as did the index for new vehicles.
- Other indexes that increased in November include recreation, education, personal care, and apparel. In contrast, the index for communication fell 1.0 percent in November after falling 0.6 percent in October and September.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.
- The shelter index increased 4.7 percent over the last year, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2022.
- Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+12.7 percent), medical care (+3.1 percent), education (+4.2 percent), and recreation (+1.5 percent).
With money supply on the rise again, it should be no surprise that inflation is also rising phoenix-like from the ashes of a pre-election money tsunami…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this what Trump is about to inherit?
Source: Bloomberg
Amid all the rancor of the election campaigns about how voters are clueless as to just how good they’ve got it – which was echoed by Jared Bernstein this morning on CNBC – Americans (as a whole) have seen real incomes drop 3.3% in the four years since Biden was elected (and up just 2% since the start of COVID)…
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, this includes EVERY American and is adjusted by EVERY item in the BLS CPI basket… how about we adjust nominal incomes for what really matters – food and fuel costs?
Finally, strong employment and resurgent inflation ‘data’ is not the kind of ‘data’ that a ‘data dependent’ Fed needs to justify rate-cuts next week? Or is this resurgence transitory?
end
amazing: they are set to authorize .9 trillion dollars in defense and yet they have not passed an audit in 7 years.
(EpochTimes)
Here’s What’s In The $895 Billion Defense Authorization Bill
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 12:25 PM
Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The House of Representatives could vote this week on a compromise version of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), with up to $895.2 billion in defense discretionary spending.
This latest version of the NDAA, coming in at 1,813 pages, is a compromise between earlier House and Senate proposals for the annual defense bill.
The House and Senate Armed Services Committees released the new compromise bill on Dec. 7.
It allocates $849.9 billion for programs under the Department of Defense (DOD), another $33.3 billion for defense programs run through the Department of Energy and its Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, and $512.4 million for defense-related activities.
The NDAA allows for up to $11.5 billion in discretionary spending adjustments, bringing the potential total to $895.2 billion.
Another $26.5 billion is tied to mandatory programs.
The new version includes increased funding to bolster U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region with $15.6 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program focused on bolstering the U.S. military’s China-facing capabilities.
The spending allocation is $5.7 billion higher than the DOD requested.
Other provisions are aimed at reducing the risk of Chinese actors being able to access sensitive U.S. information.
Numerous measures bar the DOD from buying certain equipment or contracting for specific services from China.
The compromise NDAA also provides funding for seven new warships, including one Virginia-class submarine and supplemental funding for a second; an amphibious transport dock ship; and one medium landing ship.
It also authorizes funding for three new Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers; one more than the DOD requested.
The new NDAA fully funds the new Columbia-class submarine and B-21 Raider stealth bomber programs.
Included in the Act, is a 4.5 percent pay raise for all U.S. troops across the board, with enlisted ranks E-4 and below to receive a 14.5 percent pay boost.
Allowances are increased for both the cost of living and basic needs for servicemembers.
The bill also bolsters family support by funding childcare programs and new facilities, as well as expanding military spouse employment support.
“Servicemember quality of life concerns are a major cause of low morale and family stress, which are undermining recruitment, retention, and military readiness,” the Republican-led House Armed Services Committee said in a summary.
“The 2025 NDAA will improve the quality of life for servicemembers and their families.”
Culture War Riders
Cultural controversies have posed a hurdle for the Democrat-led Senate and the Republican-led House to reconcile their differing defense plans.
The version of the NDAA that the House passed in June included provisions to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) positions within the DOD and freeze new DEI hires.
Other measures in the House version of the bill stripped funds from abortion-related travel, barred funding for the teaching of “gender ideology” in DOD-funded schools, and barred defense spending on gender transition services.
The compromise NDAA version maintains the DEI hiring freeze but drops the House provisions to outright eliminate DEI programs and positions.
It also drops the efforts to block funding for abortion-related travel and eliminates money for materials promoting gender ideology in DOD-funded schools.
The compromise bill does bar the DOD’s health care program, Tricare, from covering gender-transitioning treatments for children under the age of 18.
Another House NDAA provision, that would bar the DOD from knowingly contracting with entities that engage in the boycotts of Israel, carried over into the compromise bill.
Republicans and Democrats both claimed some victories in the cultural battles.
“The FY25 NDAA builds upon the gains made in the FY24 NDAA to end the radical woke ideology being forced on our servicemen and women and restores the focus of our military on lethality,” the Republican-led House Armed Services Committee said in its assessment of the compromise bill.
By contrast, House Armed Services Democrats said they “were successful in blocking provisions that attacked DEI programs, the LGBT community, and women’s access to reproductive health care.”
Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, still hopes to change the final bill, to eliminate the provision barring Tricare coverage for gender-transitioning treatment for minor children.
“Blanketly denying health care to people who clearly need it, just because of a biased notion against transgender people, is wrong,” Smith said in a Dec. 8 press statement.
“This provision injected a level of partisanship not traditionally seen in defense bills.”
Smith accused House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) of using the provision to appeal to extreme elements within his party and urged Johnson to abandon the provision.
Provisions Not Adopted
The new bill drops hundreds of additional legislative provisions lawmakers in the House and Senate had sought.
The Senate Armed Services Committee had proposed S. Amdt. 3290 as an omnibus amendment encompassing 93 other changes and legislative provisions.
One would have required U.S. individuals and business entities to notify the Treasury Department of outbound investments in critical technology sectors in China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
This notification provision would have covered a range of sensitive technology investments, including advanced semiconductors and microelectronics, hypersonic, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence systems.
The compromise NDAA proposal went forward without adopting many provisions laid out in amendment 3290, including the outbound investment notification measure.
The House had hoped to include a provision codifying a drone corps as a basic component of the U.S. Army, but that measure didn’t make it into the new bill.
Another provision in the House NDAA called on the DOD to prepare a report on plans for defeating Mexican drug cartels.
This provision did not make it into the compromise bill.
However, it directs the secretary of defense to prepare an assessment of the Mexican military’s capabilities for countering transnational criminal organizations, and of the DOD’s counternarcotics support for Mexican forces by April 1, 2025.
end
Brandon Smith
East Vs. West: A Global Dollar Dump Is Inevitable And The US Must Prepare
WEDNESDAY, DEC 11, 2024 – 05:25 AM
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,
In October of 2024, Russia hosted the annual BRICS Summit in the city of Kazan with the intent to show unity among developing nations and general eastern interests. The Kremlin, a target of severe NATO sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been effective in solidifying economic guarantees from BRICS partners and circumventing western economic controls.
Despite being removed from the SWIFT banking network and being cut off from a large percentage of global trade, Russia has continued to garner solid export revenues. We certainly aren’t seeing the total collapse of the Russian economy that so many media “experts” predicted. The reason? Russia is resource rich and in an inflationary environment countries that are heavy in commodities sold at lower prices are always sought after. The BRICS event this year was a reminder that the west’s financial influence is in decline.
At that same meeting, Putin called for an alternative international payment system and passed around a mock-up of what he called a BRICS “bank note”. The paper note was purely symbolic, but it’s presence at the summit started an uproar within the establishment media. Pundits were quick to “fact check” the story and declare that this was not a real unified currency announcement. As far as I know, no one said it was. What we did say, however, is that a real multilateral currency system cutting out the dollar is MUCH CLOSER than most people realize.
Putin flashed that banknote around because this is something the BRICS have been working on for well over a decade. Those cynics that think such a thing is impossible are living in denial, or, they have an agenda to peddle.
Donald Trump in particular seems to understand quite well that the BRICS currency concept is not a bluff or a joke. In a recent social media post, Trump threatened to increase tariffs for any nation that tries to diminish or replace the dollar’s world reserve status (the dollar is the premier currency used in the vast majority of international transactions). Putin responded with a warning that Trump’s efforts to reinforce the dollar would backfire.
Overall, Putin is right. Any move to force the dollar onto developing nations as a reserve currency will only result in them dumping it faster. Tariffs act as leverage for short term adjustments to trade imbalances, but they aren’t going to be effective in preventing other countries from using alternative currencies.
The problem with the dollar reserve system is its foundation. Officially established with the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 as we neared the end of WWII, the unspoken deal underlying the dollar was that the US would get the economic benefits of reserve status, but in exchange America would be required to carry the bulk of military defense obligations for allies around the globe.
Five years later in 1949 NATO would be founded, the dollar was made the common currency denominator for all members and the US would end up paying 60% or more of all funding for the alliance for decades to come. The economic trade off was established – The US dollar gets the advantages of reserve status and the rest of the western world gets military protection from the US.
However, as far as eastern nations and the BRICS are concerned today, NATO is not an ally. There’s no agreement or unspoken doctrine which convinces the developing nations to maintain the dollar’s reserve status; only precarious import/export arrangements that can fall apart quickly if conflict arises.
And let’s be honest, the sparks of wider conflict are everywhere. At my current count, there are at least three regional proxy wars going on simultaneously that have the potential to kick off WWIII – Ukraine, Israel and Syria. Then there’s Taiwan, North Korea, and Georgia (Eastern Europe); regions that are constantly on the verge of going hot.
On top of that, there’s the steady decline of Western Europe, with Germany and France now in governmental limbo, not to mention the UK turning into an Orwellian police state. Americans are so insulated from the global crisis that’s unfolding that I worry millions will be caught completely off guard when it finally arrives on our doorstep.
To be sure, the US has its share of instability. The stagflation crisis is in its third year (officially) and prices don’t look like they will be coming down on most necessities any time soon. The illegal immigration crisis is about to come to a crescendo and we’re all waiting to see if the Trump Administration follows through on his promise of mass deportations. Then there’s the incredible debt crisis – Our government has added $6 trillion to the national debt in the past two years alone. We are creating over $1 trillion in new debt every 3-4 months and our debt to GDP ratio is 124%. This is unsustainable.
That said, we haven’t experienced any catastrophic economic disruptions yet. The loss of the dollar’s reserve status would bring historically devastating consequences, at least in the short term, and that’s only if our country devises a plan to weather the storm.
Conflicts between east and west are only going to grow given the existing conditions, and the calls for a dollar alternative are going to continue. There’s not much Trump can do about that. We also have to keep in mind that there are globalist institutions like the IMF and BIS that are, as I write this, getting ready to introduce CBDCs and cashless systems that would limit the dollar’s global influence by default.
When globalists pontificated endlessly about a “Great Reset” during the pandemic era, what they were talking about was primarily an economic reset and a currency reset. Klaus Schwab of the WEF stated ‘Now is the time for a great reset of capitalism’, and this event was supposed to precede a global shift into a cashless system.
There can’t be a global currency reset without the dollar being demoted. There can’t be a reset without a reversal of the old Bretton Woods system. They know it, and they aren’t going to warn the rest of the public about the consequences.
Everything is working against the dollar right now, and there’s a lot of people out there that question if it’s even worth saving. The Federal Reserve has been the source of considerable corruption within our government and I have often referred to central bankers as economic suicide bombers. But, the dollar is all we have until a tangible safety net can be established.
Instead of focusing on trying to intimidate the BRICS into sticking with the dollar, Trump should be drafting a plan to backstop our currency system with hard commodities to prevent greater inflation and ensuring that the US has the capacity to manufacture all our necessities domestically.
There is a chance this could be done under Trump; there was zero chance it would have been done under Kamala Harris. So, at least there’s hope.
At bottom, it’s impossible to keep the dollar in a position of global dominance when every element of geopolitics is working against it and the very globalist organizations that helped create the Bretton Woods system are now trying to dismantle it. It’s time to localize, build redundancies and get ready for the greater crisis at hand., because one way or another difficult changes are coming.
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING
KING REPORT
| The King Report December 11, 2024 Issue 7388 | Independent View of the News |
| Alphabet Climbs (as much as 6.3%) Following Breakthrough with Willow Quantum Chip – BBG The company’s quantum computer needs just five minutes to solve a problem that would take supercomputers around 10 septillion years, Alphabet announced Monday, though it did not disclose any actual uses for all that theoretical power… Other quantum-related stocks also moved in the wake of Alphabet’s announcement. Rigetti Computing Inc. jumped as much as 29% on Tuesday while D-Wave Quantum Inc. rose 16% before paring much of that advance; it last traded up 6.7%. IonQ Inc. rose 5.4%… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-climbs-following-breakthrough-willow-155044792.html NFIB Small Business Optimism jumped to 101.7 for November from 93.7 in October. 95.3 was consensus. Trump’s victory created the biggest jump in small business enthusiasm since July 1980. The 1979-1980 recession bottomed in September 1980. After a four-month economic bounce, the second leg of the double-dip recession commenced. Small Business Optimism Jumps Above 50-year Average in November “The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.” https://www.nfib.com/news-article/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-jumps-above-50-year-average-in-november/ Gold rallied sharply while Bitcoin declined smartly. The probable unwind of a long gold/short Bitcoin position appears to have ended last week. ESZs traded moderately lower but sideways from the Nikkei opening on Tuesday until they dipped to a daily low of 6057.50 at 4:44 ET. ESZs then soared to 6071.25 at 6:36 ET. After trading sideways until 8:10 ET, ESZs fell to 6965.25 at 8:56 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening then commenced; ESZs jumped to 6072.75 at 9:27 ET. Just like on Monday, the dump appeared just before the NYSE opening. ESZs sank to 6061.00 at 9:38 ET. Conditioned dip buyers and traders playing for a Turnaround Tuesday then eagerly bought. ESZs jumped to 6070.75 at 9:48 ET. Alas, there were organic sellers in the market; ESZs dropped to 6062.00 at 9:55 ET. But traders were resolute in affecting a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. Abetted by the Google quantum chip news, aggressive buying then took ESZs to a new daily high of 6075.25 at 10:44 ET. Alas spirited selling appeared; ESZs tumbled to 6060.00 at 12:15 ET. A Noon Balloon took ESZs to 6068.50 at 12:37 ET. Sellers returned; ESZs sank to a new daily low of 6054.25 at 14:17 ET. After a rebound to 6059.00 at 14:25 ET, ESZs headed south again. ESZs tumbled to a new daily low of 6039.75 at 15:32 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESZs to 6049.25 at the NYSE close. A major reason for the relentless selling on Tuesday that kept thwarting rally attempts is trepidation that the November CPI, due today, could show an unexpected increase. Or the CPI report leaked! Alaska Air rallied as much as 18.0% after it boosted its Q4 EPS forecast to .40 to .50 from .20 to .40. This induced the DJTA to rally as much as 1.2%. Positive aspects of previous session Google led quantum chip stocks higher. The DJTA rallied as much as 200 points on Alaksa Air. Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA lost its early gain by noon ET; US equities sank in the afternoon. Gold soared (but Bitcoin fell); energy commodities rallied smartly. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did the November CPI Report leak? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6043.40 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6065.40; 6029.89 Kroger and Albertsons grocery megamerger halted by two courts Kroger and Albertsons saw their $24.6 billion merger blocked on Tuesday by judges in two separate cases, one brought by federal regulators and the other by the Washington state attorney general… https://www.npr.org/2024/12/10/nx-s1-5114999/kroger-albertsons-merger-ftc-lawsuit-court-ruling AP’s FarnoushAmiri: (GOP Senate) Leader McConnell fell during a GOP lunch today and there is a medical team with a wheelchair that just went into his office. @joshdcaplan: (GOP Senator) Thune says McConnell is “fine” and in his office. @AFP last night: Taiwan says detects 53 Chinese military aircraft, 19 ships around island Today – Due to the sharp equity decline on Tuesday afternoon, traders expect a worse November CPI Report than the consensus forecast. Ergo, if November CPI is inline or lower, a robust rally should appear. If this transpires, the ability of stocks to keep their morning gains thereafter will be important. If November CPI is higher than expected, there should be an initial decline and then a robust rebound. Barring a very ugly November CPI Report, traders will be bullish today. Gold appears to be breaking out from its late October to mid-November decline. ESZs are +5.75; NQZs are +26.50; USZs are -4/32; and Dec Gold is +13.00 at 20:25 ET. Expected Economic Data: Nov CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 3.3% y/y; Nov Federal Budget Balance -$351.0B S&P Index 50-day MA: 5885; 100-day MA: 5710; 150-day MA: 5610; 200-day MA: 5491 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,285; 100-day MA: 42,042; 150-day MA: 41,135; 200-day MA: 40,533 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6034.91 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5304.59 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5705.24 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6000.92 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6060.72 triggers a buy signal IG finds Justice Department spied on Patel and other congressional staffer without telling courts As a result of the probe, the department obtained phone records from two members of Congress and 43 staff members, including President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for FBI Director, Kash Patel… https://justthenews.com/accountability/watchdogs/ig-finds-justice-department-spied-congressional-staff-leak-probe-without It is imperative that Team Trump keep their promises to reform the Deep State and hold it accountable for its egregious abuses. ActBlue Bombshell: Dem money platform tells Congress it didn’t block foreign gift cards until fall https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/actblue-bombshell-dem-money-platform-tells-congress-it-didnt-block Social media sympathy for killing of health insurance CEO sparks pushback https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5033590-healthcare-industry-battles-thompson-murder/ @libsoftiktok: (Ex-WaPo reporter) Taylor Lorenz: I felt joy when the CEO was k*lled. Taylor 10 seconds later: I never said I felt joy! She then refuses to apologize and desperately tries covering for herself. She’s evil. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1866379489766162563 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
WHAT AN IDIOT!
Here’s How Manhattan DA Plans To Keep Trump Case Alive
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024 – 06:00 PM
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg – who had a Biden DOJ plant in his legal case against former President Donald Trump – is trying to ensure his hush money case doesn’t vanish into thin air as Trump prepares for his return to the White House.
According to court filings revealed Tuesday, Bragg’s office is fiercely opposed to dismissing the case outright but is open to pausing proceedings while Trump serves his second term as president.
The 82-page legal brief, prosecutors’ most detailed argument yet, stops short of recommending an explicit course of action but outlines several ways to keep the case alive. Among them: delaying sentencing until after Trump leaves office in 2029 or freezing the case while leaving the jury’s guilty verdict intact, The Hill reports.
“The extreme remedy of dismissing the indictment and vacating the jury verdict is not warranted in light of multiple alternative accommodations that would fully address the concerns raised by presidential immunity,” wrote Assistant District Attorney Christopher Conroy.
The filing comes as Trump, now president-elect, wages a legal battle to quash the 34 felony charges stemming from hush money payments to an adult film star. Trump’s lawyers claim his status as president-elect grants him immunity and demands immediate dismissal.
Prosecutors, however, aren’t buying it. They argue that immunity doesn’t apply until Trump is inaugurated, meaning the case could theoretically proceed to sentencing before January 20, 2025 — a prospect Trump has vowed to fight tooth and nail.
Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over Trump’s trial, will now decide the case’s fate, with a ruling expected any day.
A Legal Tightrope
The DA’s office acknowledged the complications of prosecuting a sitting president but stopped short of saying the case should be completely shelved.
Trump was convicted by a Manhattan Jury ‘of his peers’ on 34 counts of falsifying business records, however his reelection to the highest office in the land has put a damper on prosecutors’ plans.
Sentencing was initially scheduled for last month, only to be postponed indefinitely by Judge Merchan, making it increasingly unlikely Trump will face punishment anytime soon.
That would leave open the possibility that Trump could still proceed to sentencing in 2029, after he leaves office.
Alternatively, state prosecutors said the judge could terminate the case without tossing Trump’s conviction, noting a jury verdict removed the presumption of innocence, he was never sentenced and his conviction was “neither affirmed nor reversed” on appeal because of presidential immunity. -The Hill
Trump’s legal team is crying foul, claiming the prosecution disrupts his transition efforts and his ability to govern effectively. “Wrongly continuing proceedings in this failed lawfare case disrupts President Trump’s transition efforts and his preparations to wield the full Article II executive power authorized by the Constitution pursuant to the overwhelming national mandate granted to him by the American people on November 5, 2024,” Trump’s attorneys fumed in a recent filing.
Prosecutors hit back, accusing Trump of using delay tactics to muddy the waters. “Having filed those motions to dismiss and then sought repeated adjournments of sentencing to permit their determination by this Court, it is particularly brazen for defendant to argue that the Supremacy Clause bars the Court from taking any action on the motions defendant himself filed,” Conroy wrote.
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING KAREN KINGSTON
Trump Team Will Recall CV19 Shots – Karen Kingston
By Greg Hunter On December 11, 2024 In Political Analysis2 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Karen Kingston is a biotech analyst and former Pfizer employee who is back with a prediction about the nightmare of the CV19 mRNA nanoparticle bioweapon vaccines. Kingston thinks the Trump team with HHS nominee Bobby Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) will force a recall shortly after Trump is sworn into office. Last week, Trump and RFK Jr. had a meeting with the CEOs of Pfizer and Eli Lilly along with Big Pharma’s trade group. Kingston says, “What are the negotiating tools Trump has? He has many. The Covid 19 shots, Pfizer knew they could only poison, harm and kill. They are bioweapons and because of Pfizer’s contract that I have reviewed, it makes them liable. . . . Pfizer CEO Burla, Trump has him between a rock and a hard place. . . . Not only are they going to allow RFK Jr. to be confirmed . . .when RFK Jr. announces the Covid 19 shots must be recalled, Albert Burla and the CEO of Moderna and other companies are going to go along with a ‘voluntary recall’ of all the Covid 19 injections from the United States market and globally. This will happen within the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, if not much, much sooner.”
Donald Trump is also pushing his America First agenda with Big Pharma. Kingston says, “At least 25% of key ingredients are coming from manufacturing partners in China. Who is one of the biggest manufacturing partners? WuXi Biologics, who directly works for and on behalf of the Peoples Republic of China and the Peoples Liberation Army. Trump is saying cut it out, we don’t want you collaborating with our enemies for key ingredients for drugs, pharmaceuticals and vaccines that are used in the United States. Who is WuXi Biologics’ number one manufacturing partner? Eli Lilly. Number two is likely Pfizer.”
When they really start investigating what went wrong with the CV19 injections, Kingston says, “They will find millions of deaths. The number of adverse events, because it’s times 200 million people who had CV19 injected in America, it’s going to be in the billions. When you add up going to the doctor, going to the ICU, getting multiple diagnoses across various systems, you are going to see billions of adverse events.”
The next front is the Bird Flu plandemic that is being planned and implemented right now. Kingston was one of the first to sound alarm on the “Bird Flu Genocide and Food Destruction” six weeks ago on USAWatchdog.com. Kingston warns about the Bird Flu vaccine laced with dangerous pathogens, more lies and hype to scare the public into taking the latest experimental and deadly Bird Flu shots, and the globalist plan to destroy the American food supply. Kingston says, “I hope Congress starts acting very quickly to shut down this H5N1 Bird Flu attack that will create a food shortage and a pandemic for the Trump Administration and RFK Jr. to inherit. This will just accelerate the World Health Organization’s and World Economic Forum’s goal to create a global government. They are taking out America. They are annihilating our food supply, and this needs to stop.”
There is much more in the 56-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned biotech analyst Karen Kingston as she continues to warn on the CV19 bioweapon vax, the coming unsafe and deadly Bird Flu (H5N1) bioweapon vax, and the ongoing attack on America’s food supply for 12.10.24.
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After the Interview:
There is some free information on Kingston’s Substack.
To support Kingston financially, you can become a subscriber to her Substack by clicking here.
If you want to donate to Kingston electronically so she can continue informing the public, please click here.
If you want to make a snail mail donation to Karen Kingston, please do so at:
SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
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