GOLD PRICE DOWN $34.00 TO $2685.60

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.94 TO $31.04

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2681.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.97

Bitcoin morning price:$100,497 DOWN 817 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $99.779 DOWN 1535 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN $6.45 TO $933.40

Palladium price; DOWN $13.40 TO $976.00

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3812.80 DOWN 35.10 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2116.41 DOWN 14.03 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,562.30 DOWN 26.75 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)

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EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,733.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/11/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/13/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

132 C SG AMERICAS 313
190 H BMO CAPITAL 636
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 64
365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 84
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 733
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 26
661 C JP MORGAN 1373 102
661 H JP MORGAN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 96 119
690 C ABN AMRO 23 19
737 C ADVANTAGE 18 19
880 H CITIGROUP 6
905 C ADM 1 13

TOTAL: 1,824 1,824

JPMorgan stopped 103/1824

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 1824 NOTICES FOR 182,400 OZ  5.673 TONNES

total notices so far: 19,976 contracts for 1,997,600 Oz (62.133 tonnes)

FOR  DEC

SILVER NOTICES: 400 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2,000,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 8376 for 41.880 million oz

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.94 AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/.

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 463.428 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 527 CONTRACTS TO 151,633 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SLIGHT GAIN OF $0,10 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2532 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING  AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS TO WHICH THEY FAILED WITH YESTERDAY’S SLIGHT SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICING. 

WE HAD A  HUGE 1995 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 476 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THURSDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2532 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SLIGHT GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A SMALL TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY’S COMEX SESSION. MONDAY MORNING (INSTEAD OF SATURDAY MORNING) WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF .5000 OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/ THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .66 MILLION OZ/NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS FOR THE MONTH: 1.16 MILLION OZ.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX AND THAT THAT CONTINUED ON WEDNESDAY TO NO AVAIL.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 476 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.10) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD AN HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2722 OI. CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A HUGE 1995 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK THURSDAY NIGHT (NOV 29). THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE HERE THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER BE DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! SHOCKINGLY,MONDAY MORNING DEC 9, WE HAD ANOTHER 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED. TOTAL FOR MONTH 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE 394 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 1.970 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.

// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 43.095 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 44.255 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// MEGA HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 476 CONTRACTS)/ TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 16 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAYS, total 19,965 contracts:   OR 99.825 MILLION OZ  (2218 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  99.825 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 99.825 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE/ MAY EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ)

RESULT: WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 537  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1995 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  40.435 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.970 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR EQUALS 44.255 MILLION OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 44.255 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2532 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 476 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON WEDNESDAY

/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT   (476) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, AND CERTAINLY TODAY.

WE HAD 400 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,000,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,151 OI CONTRACTS  TO 496,434 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 857 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (12,151 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $29.75 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 57.284 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY A HUMONGOUS 2,393 CONTRACT QUE JUMP FOR 239,300 OZ ( 7.4432 TONNES). THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 4 ISSUANCES OF 9.863 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

/NEW STANDING 75.352 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $26.75 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 26,165 OI CONTRACTS (81.38 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 2393 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (239,300 OZ)  ALONG WITH THE 9.863 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH //NEW TOTAL TONNES OF DELIVERY: 75.352

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A MEGA HUGE SIZED 14,014 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 496,434

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 26,165 CONTRACTS  WITH 12,151 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,014 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 26,165 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 2114 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (14,088 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 12,151 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 26,165 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.117 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 239,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 4 PRIOR OCCASIONS OF 9.863 TONNES//NEW STANDING 75.352 TONNES

//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 75.352 TONNES

 / 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE  WEDNESDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS AS WE HAD A $29.75 PRICE GAIN. BUT WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  MEGA HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///GOOD T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2114 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///2395 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 239,500 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

DEC

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 69,554 CONTRACTS OF 6,955,400 OZ OR 216.34 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7728 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  216.34 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  216.34 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 216.34 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an ex for physical issuance for this month/maybe this time we will surpass March 2022 record of 409 tonnes for the month)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 537 CONTRACTS OI  TO 151,823 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1995 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1995 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1995 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 727   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1995 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2532 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS A HUGE 12.66 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.10 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.01 PTS OR 0.85%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 292.00 PTS OR 0.42%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 476.71 OR 1.21%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .27%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2781 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2781// Oil UP TO 70.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.44 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,151 CONTRACTS TO 496,434 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $29.75 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS WE HAVE A STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AND WE ALSO HAD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW A HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (14,014). THUS A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 26,165 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AND THEREFORE NO LOSS IN NET LONGS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH THIS MORNING’S TRADING.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS  202, AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING BUT VERY LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY. BUT LOTS TODAY.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,014 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  14,014 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 14014 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 26,145 CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,014 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 13,088 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS EXTRA HUGE GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $29.75 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED SIZED 2114 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY WITH LAST FRIDAY’S TRADING, AND IT CONTINUED WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING, ENDING TUESDAY BUT FORECEFULLY RETURNING ON THURSDAY MORNING.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   DEC (67.7534 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 58.046 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR + 1.919 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK WEDNEDAY+ 7.0108 TONNES FRIDAY NIGHT(DEC 7) /NEW TOTAL 67.7534 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY   $29.75/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN PRICE. WE DID HAVE LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING.

LATE 12 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS MORNING, DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. THUS ALL FOUR OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. (9.863 TONNES).

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 81.38 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MEGA MEGA HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 239,300 OZ OR 7.4492 TONNES, THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY, TO WHICH WE ADD 9.863 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK.

THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR = : 9.7074 TONNES + .1555 EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + NORMAL GOLD TONNES STANDING OF 65.489= DELIVERY TOTALS OF 75.352 TONNEES

/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 75.352 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 75.352 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $29.75

WE HAD 731 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 27,102 CONTRACTS OR 2,710,200 (84.298 TONNES)

confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 307,167 contracts: poor //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A MUCH GREATER EXTENT.

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

DEC 11

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits:  NIL oz

we have 1 customer deposit

i) Into Brinks 79,929.39 oz (2487 kilobars.

total deposits 79,929.39 oz  2487 kilobars

strictly a paper gold entry.

withdrawals: 0

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: oz

adjustments: 2

a) customer to dealer; Brinks 96,453.000 oz (3000 kilobars)

b) JPMorgan: dealer to customer: 96454.300 oz (300 kilobars)

these are paper gold entries

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.

For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 2903 contracts having GAINED A WHOPPING 1765 contracts. We had 628 contracts were served on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED AN UNBELIEVABLE 2393 contracts or 239,300 oz (7.4432 TONNES) underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet. This is the highest ever recorded queue jump in comex gold history.

JANUARY GAINED 1052 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 3212

FEBRUARY GAINED 4389 CONTRACTS TO 373,249 .

We had 1824 contracts filed for today representing 182,400 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 1373 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1824 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 103 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,976 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC(2903 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (1824 x 100 oz per contract( equals  2,105,500 OZ  OR 65.484 TONNES. to which we add 9.7074 tonnes of exchange for risk/PRIOR + .1555 tonnes exchange for risk today equals 75.352

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:  No of notices filed so far (19.976 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC  (2903 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1824 x 100 oz which equals  2,105,500 oz (65.484 TONNES)  + 9.7074 tonnes of ex. for risk PRIOR //+ .1555 tonnes exchange for risk today //new total 75.352 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 75.352 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,887,512.376  oz 58.71 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  18,418,939.939 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8184,164.152/// 254.56 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,234,,825.777 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,306,297 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 196.15 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/17.833 million oz = 20.14% of entire inventory..

END

SILVER/COMEX

DEC 11. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE DEC 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  2 customer deposits

i) Into CNT: 599,828.79 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 947.200 oz

total customer deposits 600,775..990 oz

We had 1 withdrawals

i) Out of ASAHI 605,151.05 oz

total withdrawal 605,151.05 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.818million  or 43.66%

adjustment 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.529MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.818 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 643 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 192 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

586 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE HAD A HUGE 394 CONTRACT OR A 1.970 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 130 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2393

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 27 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 163

MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 208 CONTRACTS UP TO 123,469

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 400 for 2,000,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 90,908 huge// t.a.s. enhanced

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8376x 5,000 oz = 41.880 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (643) and the number of notices served upon today (400)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month:  8376 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(643) minus number of notices served upon today (400)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 43.095 MILLION OZ. + to which we add 1.16 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR////new total 44.255

 New total standing: 44.255 million oz.

There are 76,529 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

DEC  12  WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

 DEC  11  WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES

 DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

 NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE

 NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES

NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES

NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES

NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES

NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES

NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES

NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES

NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES

NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE

NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES

NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 873.38 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ

DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ

DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ

DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ

NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ

NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ

NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ

NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ 

NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ

NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ

NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ

NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 463.428 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

Alasdair Macleod

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

A MUST READ!!

It’s ‘official’ at last: Gold price has been suppressed by extreme shorting and may explode

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-12-12 12:28 Section: Daily Dispatches

12:41p ET Thursday, December 12, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

At long last complaints of gold price manipulation and suppression got some respect this week from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a snooty group based in London. 

The group published a long paper heralding gold’s restoration to the center of the world financial system, “Gold and the New World Disorder,” and the paper’s chapter titled “Market Disruption — The Short Squeeze” has this to say:

“With record demand for gold, much of it from BRICs-related countries, the risks of a squeeze are increasing. This could have several catalysts.

“‘Bullion banks’ holding concentrated gold short positions might need to buy back the metal during another price run. 

Analysts have long argued that these short positions suggest market manipulation, citing the disproportionate control held by a few entities.

“Lawsuits against banks for manipulating the precious metals markets have yielded some success in recent years. During these lawsuits, some former ‘bullion bank’ traders have commented about how these gold market 
strategies might make the market vulnerable to a short squeeze — either by accident or design.

“Academic and other studies provide evidence that ‘shorting gold’ has historically been used to suppress the gold price, often linked to central bank sales and futures contracts on commodity exchanges. 

“There is also room for market disruption from imbalances stemming from allocated and unallocated gold accounts, when market participants own just a claim on gold rather than specific bars. Recent analysis suggests that the unallocated-to-allocated gold ratio at the London Bullion Market Association could range from 20:1 to even 100:1. For every ounce of physical gold backing these accounts, there might be 20 to 100 ounces of unallocated paper gold claims.

“This indicates a fractional-reserve system where future claims may far exceed the physical gold available. Predicting the timing of such a squeeze is speculative, given the size of some of these positions and growing world financial and economic tensions. However, with suspicions rising that some BRICs countries could be considering ‘weaponizing’ gold against the West, financial markets could be in for a bumpy ride.”

Ya think? Completely unofficial GATA has been documenting and screaming about this for 25 years:

If even these “official” guys now can acknowledge not only that the gold market has been manipulated by central banks and their bullion bank agents but also that the world has foolishly been depending on a lot of imaginary metal, the racket may be quickly coming to an end — no thanks to OMFIF itself, which for years has been smugly ignoring all the incriminating information placed in the public domain by GATA.

“Gold and the New World Disorder” is posted in PDF format at OMFIF’s internet site here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Florida’s CFO studies whether state could adopt gold and silver as legal tender

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-12-12 09:15 Section: Daily Dispatches

From First Coast News / WTLV-WJXX
Jacksonville, Florida
Wednesday, December 11, 2024

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Gold and silver bullion could soon be used as a legal way for Floridians to buy goods and services, the state’s Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis said today.

Patronis announced his office is launching a study on how gold and silver can be used as legal tender in the state. Gold and silver can be bought as investments but can’t be used to purchase goods and services.

Eleven U.S. states allow gold and silver as legal tender, including Louisiana, Texas, South Carolina,and West Virginia. Patronis said he wants to add Florida to that list.

In a statement, Patronis’ office said the study would be a “major first step” toward the use of gold and silver as money, which, depending on the outcome of the study, could be used as an alternative to U.S. dollars and combat the “devastating” effects of inflation. 

“This is an exciting initiative that has the potential for enormous growth in our state,” Patronis said. “Gold and silver have been trusted assets for thousands of years, and it makes perfect sense to use them as legal tender. I’m launching this study to determine the best way to get it done.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

* * *

Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps fell 13% in November as debt problems grew

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-12-10 21:24 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Wednesday, December 11, 2024

The November statement of account for the Bank for International Settlements was published this week — 

Click to access statofacc241130.pdf

—  and it indicates that the volume of gold swaps undertaken by the BIS fell from 93 tonnes on October 31 to 81 tonnes on November 29, a decline of 12 tonnes or 13%.

Table 1 below sets out the historical level of monthly gold swaps estimated by GATA since August 2018. As is evident from the table there is still a considerable level of gold being traded via these swaps. While gold swaps are down significantly from the 501 tonnes estimated in January 2022, the level seemingly remains quite volatile, suggesting the use of swaps to cover shorter-term trading requirements.

To repeat the point made regularly in these reports, it seems that these swaps are undertaken by the BIS for one or more of its central bank customers with the swapped gold being accounted for as being held in a BIS-registered sight account at a central bank. Given what is happening in the gold market more generally with regular central bank buying, it appears reasonable to assume that the Federal Reserve is the BIS’ customer for the swaps transactions. 

The evidence strongly suggests that bullion banks are the source of this gold and that the supply comes from gold registered as being held by gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The 2023-24 annual report for the BIS —

Click to access areport2024.pdf

— confirms GATA’s estimate of the bank’s gold swaps as of March 31 shown in Table 1 below: 72 tonnes. 

The recently published BIS interim report for the six months to September 30 contains information that also confirms certain assumptions used to estimate the swap volumes. This includes confirmation that the BIS continued to hold 102 tonnes of its own gold. The interim report also provides strong support, via its reporting on transactions with related parties, that the swapped gold comes from bullion banks rather than central banks.

However, the BIS continues to offer no explanation for why it is undertaking gold swaps. 

The BIS first reported gold swaps in its annual report for 2009-10, so gold swaps have been provided by the BIS for its customer central banks for more than 15 years. See Table 2 below for the year-end level of gold swaps reported by the BIS in its annual reports since March 2010.

* * *

Table 1 — Gold swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account

Month …. Swaps
& year … in tonnes

Nov-24 …. /81
Oct-24 …. /93
Sep-24 …. /112
Aug-24 …. /157
Jul-24 …. /148 
Jun-24 …. /116
May-24 …. /109
Apr-24 …. /78
Mar-24 …. /72
Feb-24 …. /68
Jan-24 …. /117
Dec-23 …. /121
Nov-23 …./100
Oct-23 …./68
Sep-23 …./96
Aug-23 …./129
Jul-23 …. /103
Jun-23…. /87
May-23 …. /188
Apr-23 …. /135
Mar-23 …. /77
Feb-23 … /136
Jan-23 … /103
Dec-22 … /0
Nov-22 … /105
Oct-22 ….. /7
Sep-22 …../57
Aug-22 ….. /75
Jul-22 ….. /56
Jun-22 ….. /202
May-22 ….. /270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 … / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

* * *

There seem to be no reasons to alter the assumption that the BIS is continuing to enter these swaps on behalf of the Federal Reserve. There is no evidence to suggest that any other major central bank is actively trading this much gold, and many central banks are still accumulating physical gold.
  
As noted above, the basic transaction that the BIS is believed to undertake is to swap dollars for gold that is transferred from a bullion bank, then to deposit this gold in a gold sight account at a central bank, presumed to be the Fed but almost certainly being the central bank that is using the BIS to execute the gold swap on its behalf. 

Given the recent volatility in BIS gold swaps, it seems likely that most are of a short duration. Why a central bank needs the BIS to undertake gold swaps isn’t clear. The swaps are likely connected with short-term trading needs and perhaps are being used to aid suppression of the gold price via the futures markets.

The volatility in the volume of swaps is clear from a review of Table 1 above. Volumes of swaps in 2023 and so far in 2024 remain well below the average seen in the preceding four years, but they remain significant. The gold price decreased from $2,744 at October 31 to $2,651 at November 30 (per USAGold.com). 

Using the November 30 gold price, the 81 tonnes of gold swaps outstanding via the BIS at the month-end are valued at about $6.9 billion. 

So the recent trading in BIS gold swaps has high dollar value and shows that gold remains a significant monetary asset still actively traded on behalf of at least one central bank, presumably the Fed.

As ever with the BIS, it remains unlikely that more information about why it undertakes these transactions will be provided. No such information was provided in the bank’s recently published annual report, which covered the year ending March 31, 2024.

*

Summary of GATA research on gold price suppression

GATA’s research on gold price suppression indicates that an active policy of price suppression was implemented around 30 years ago and was primarily intended to hold down interest rates. A recent update on this research is provided by the presentation GATA Secretary/Sreasurer Chris Powell made in November 2024 at the New Orleans Investment Conference:

This influential report from 2005 about “Gibson’s Paradox” remains relevant and highlights work in this area by former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Lawrence Summers:

It also remains relevant to highlight the following remarks made in a speech by Summers on September 8, 1999, as reported in the book “The Wealth of Progressive Nations: The Collected Lectures of Lawrence Summers.” The remarks below are an extract of a section of the speech titled “A New Economic Paradigm.”

“Most important of all, the Clinton-Gore administration has established a new paradigm for the management of our nation’s budget, with enormous cumulative benefits for our economy and our citizens. It has become a commonplace to remark on how exceptional today’s 4.2% unemployment rate is relative to any expectation at the beginning of the decade. It is no less remarkable that today, after 8.5 years of expansion, long-term interest rates are around 2 percentage points lower than they were at its start.”

From this it is reasonable to conclude that keeping interest rates lower was considered a priority by the Clinton-Gore administration and succeeding at it was thought to be “remarkable.” While this is not proof that gold price suppression was undertaken specifically to reduce interest rates, it demonstrates that reducing interest rates was a priority for the U.S. government. 

Further evidence of this priority is provided by an interview with former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin about his time working in the Clinton administration after January 1993. In answer to a question on the initial decision to prioritize federal deficit reduction, Rubin remarks: “On the other hand, if interest rates go down as a result, then that will stimulate growth, and we thought that the beneficial effect of lower interest rates would outweigh the contractionary impact of the deficit reduction”:

Hence there is plenty of evidence that keeping interest rates low was a major goal of the Clinton administration.

In the context of gold price suppression being used to reinforce efforts to reduce interest rates, the following report issued by GATA in 2007 with an analysis of the gold market by Frank Veneroso is a notable reference as it confirms that GATA’s primary assertions about gold price suppression were plausible, including under-reported sales of official gold: 

Here is an excerpt from the report: “I find it extremely annoying that there is a hell of a lot of obvious evidence out there that something is happening in the gold market — that there are very large supplies coming into the market — larger than the consensus would claim — and no one is willing to discuss it.” He further notes that maybe as much as 10,000 tonnes to 16,000 tonnes of gold may have been lent out starting in the 1980s and going on into the 1990s. This extra supply of gold will have acted to suppress gold prices and resulted in double counting of official gold, which having been lent out, may have been used, for example, to satisfy jewelry demand.

An interesting and entirely separate point about the surprising developments in the mid-1990s with subdued interest rates and relatively low inflation has come to the attention of this writer and is set out in a wide ranging article by professor Russell Napier:

Within this highly informative article there is a reference to the impact caused by Chinese exports of manufactured goods since 1994 on the rate of inflation around the world. Professor Napier considers that these goods were sold at below economic value for many years and were responsible for the change toward a lower rate of inflation for most of the next 30 years in the developed world. 

It seems quite a coincidence that this impact from Chinese exports happened when gold price suppression started in earnest with plausible reasons to believe this was of an intentional effort by the U.S. authorities to suppress interest rates. This may suggest that in addition to gold price suppression there was a deliberate policy to allow China to export goods at low prices as part of the effort to reduce inflation and keep real interest rates low.

In light of the efforts to suppress gold prices, this extra dimension of support for sustained lower inflation seems to this writer to provide a much more complete explanation of why this dramatic change in interest rates has happened in the last 30 years.

*

More recent trends in U.S. federal government deficits

The remarks by Rubin and Summers on the U.S. government’s priorities in the 1990s are reminders of how much the financial positions of Western nations have worsened since then.

The worsening trend for Western nations, especially the United States, probably reduces the appeal to the BIS of undertaking gold swaps on behalf of any central bank where a liability to return swapped gold is incurred. The trend possibly also reduces the appeal of any such swaps to the central bank or banks for which the BIS has been acting. 

A report issued by GATA in 2012 is worth revisiting as it highlights the acknowledgment of gold price suppression by a former chairman of the BIS, Jelle Zijlstra, a Dutch politician, economist, and central banker. So it seems likely that BIS management understands what the swaps are being used for and why no reasons for the transactions are given:

The conundrum facing the Federal Reserve about dollar interest rates has seemingly been resolved for now with the Fed’s recent decisions to reduce rates with further cuts suggested for December and into 2025. What will happen after the Trump administration takes control is difficult to guess. A recent stream of announcements on a wide range of topics from efforts to cut federal spending by $2 trillion to the introduction of punitive tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China highlights the uncertain outlook.

The current federal government debt of $36.2 trillion, including $7.3 trillion of special debt, as of December 6 is already $0.7 trillion higher than at September 30, the end of the last fiscal year. This current trend seems unsustainable and unless there is a rapid change it seems inevitable that gold prices will rise substantially, either via a deliberate gold price reset or by a substantial decline in the market price of the dollar. Clearly at this level of debt a substantial increase in interest rates would hasten recognition that federal government finances are unsustainable.

The direction of oil prices after the election might prove to be an important influence on the timing of a gold price reset, if it is being considered.  A strong recovery in oil prices would be damaging.

The report at the following link, which reviews the possible connection between hedge funds’ basis trades in U.S. Treasuries and the Fed’s program of quantitative tightening in 2022, could be read as another sign of how difficult it is to find purchasers of U.S. Treasuries at current prices:

Perhaps the easiest way to picture this apparent correlation is to view this chart:

Click to access Lambourne-Chart1A.pdf

This further link contains a commentary on the apparent enrichment of certain hedge funds and the individuals involved as a result of the apparent support from the Fed to the hedge fund basis trade used to effect “quantitative tightening”:

It also seems that the incentives for foreigners to own U.S. Treasuries are diminishing as efforts to confiscate Russian assets appear to be moving forward. Saudi Arabia has apparently warned that any such confiscation may cause it to sell its holding of U.S. Treasuries.

Again, it seems appropriate to note that a report titled “Living with High Public Debt,” authored by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen, was published in August 2023 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This report reinforces just how difficult it is to handle high federal government debt with spending far in excess of revenue.

The report can be found at the Kansas City Fed’s internet site and at GATA’s:

Click to access Living_With_High_Public_SA_Sep_2_2023.pdf

Click to access Living_With_High_Public_Debt_Sep_2_2023.pdf

Here is an excerpt from the conclusions:

“Looking forward, the challenges are daunting. Given aging populations, governments will have to find additional finance for healthcare and pensions. They will have to finance spending on defense, climate change abatement, and adaptation, and the digital transition. A growing number of low-income countries are already in debt distress. 

“Living with high public debt therefore means avoiding steps that make a bad situation worse. This means minimizing unproductive public spending. It means targeting social transfers as a way of limiting pressures on the expenditure side. It means limiting contingent liabilities by, inter alia, adequately regulating banks and avoiding recapitalization costs. 

“It means contemplating tax increases where revenues are low by international standards. It means further developing financial markets where markets are underdeveloped and where a diverse population of local investors in debt securities is absent. It means embracing legal and procedural changes that streamline and speed restructuring for countries whose debts are unsustainable. 

“This modest medicine does not make for a happy diagnosis. But it makes for a realistic one.”

In the circumstances, vividly described in the report, it seems unsurprising that the price of gold has increased substantially so far in 2024. The report offers yet more reason to question whether gold swaps undertaken via the BIS, probably on behalf of the Fed, are being used as part of a mechanism to suppress the dollar gold price and may even represent double-counted gold supposedly held by exchange-traded funds.

*

Debt problems in China and other countries

In recent reports the International Monetary Fund has highlighted the high level of non-financial debt in many countries, and data recently reported by the BIS for non-financial debt to gross domestic product include as of Q2 2024: Japan 394%, France 319%, China 292%, U.S. 249%, UK 229%, Germany 200%, and India 183%. Both the IMF and the BIS are clearly signaling their concerns over the debt overhang. 

Recent reports in Western media on efforts by the Chinese government to stimulate its economy, especially its property sector, are relevant to supporters of gold. At least one experienced observer of the Chinese economy believes that China needs to devalue its debt and possibly achieve this by way of a gold price revaluation. Even last week saw new reports on efforts to refinance the debt of local authorities in China.

Professor Russell Napier, the author of the article cited above, published in American Affairs, includes  his insights into the debt situation in China and his view that much of this debt needs to be written off. An unsaid consequence of his conclusion is that gold will rise in price in yuan (and dollars) as a result of this debt write-off, which could in theory be achieved by a gold price reset by the Chinese government. Professor Napier is the author of “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98” and a well-known investment adviser and economic historian.

In recent YouTube videos Napier goes further and suggests in the video that Chinese President Xi Jinping has the ability to decide when to trigger a gold price reset and that it will change global trade dramatically. A decision by China to devalue the yuan versus gold would almost certainly force the United States to follow and would probably lead to bans or extremely high tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States. 

If Professor Napier is correct, then any attempts by President-elect Donald Trump to introduce substantial tariffs on Chinese exports might trigger a decision by the Chinese to reset the yuan gold price, since one of the major adverse consequences of a unilateral Chinese decision to trigger a gold price reset — namely the loss of their export trade to the U.S. — would have already happened. 

So the price of gold could soar if Trump carries out what he has said he will do. There is plenty of recent evidence that the Chinese intend to take measures against the U.S. if punitive tariffs are introduced on imports from China. Efforts are being made by the Chinese to stop exports of certain minerals such as gallium to the U.S. and to diversify their purchases of soybeans, formerly sourced mainly from the U.S. Also, China is seeking to adopt sanctions similar to those used by the U.S. on third parties to stop them rerouting materials to the U.S.

If Trump acts more cautiously, then maybe an agreed joint U.S.-China gold price reset might occur in 2025. The chances that the U.S. federal deficit will continue to be willingly funded by foreigners in 2025 seem really bleak, not only because of the possible adverse implications of Trump’s tax plans and the likely difficulty in cutting federal government spending by the target of $2 trillion, but especially as hedge funds have already been used and seemingly are really holding Treasuries only as a stopgap for maybe two years, a term that will start running out later in 2025.

In the opinion of this writer, Napier’s ideas on a new financial system are credible, especially if two separate spheres of influence develop based around China and the U.S. 

*

Historical context of the gold swaps

The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published on July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially created a mismatch at the BIS, which may have ended up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the bank’s establishment 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines suggest this may be changing.

As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in the name of the BIS in gold sight accounts at major central banks, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosure made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

Table 2 below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements have regularly been large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant.

Table 2 Year-End BIS Gold Swap Volumes

March 2010: 346 tonnes
March 2011: 409 tonnes
March 2012: 355 tonnes
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes
March 2022: 358 tonnes
March 2023: 77 tonnes
March 2024: 72 tonnes

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market and about U.S. government debt.

END

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/

END

LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 202

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: ORANGE JUICE

Production of orange juice falls

(zerohedge)

Citrus Crisis: Florida’s Orange Juice Production Slides To Lowest Level Since 1930

THURSDAY, DEC 12, 2024 – 11:45 AM

The US Department of Agriculture has released an alarming new forecast for Florida’s citrus industry.

The latest projection indicates orange production for the current season will total around 12 million boxes—the lowest since 1930—according to Bloomberg, citing the new USDA report.

Source: Bloomberg

A devastating hurricane this fall has compounded the damage already inflicted by citrus greening disease, a bacterial infection that has decimated groves over the past decade.

Orange juice futures have surged to $5 per pound, a staggering 433% increase from the Covid-era lows of around $1 per pound. Worsening supply constraints could squeeze prices even higher.

Florida’s orange production and citrus exports face an uncertain future as the industry struggles to recover from the dual blows of severe weather and disease.

More from Bloomberg:

The cut reflects an even dimmer situation for Florida’s citrus industry, which had been expected to produce fewer oranges even before Hurricane Milton tore through groves in mid-October. Growers have been combating a deadly citrus disease called greening that has decimated orange production, while also trying to recover from hurricanes Ian and Irma in 2022 and 2017.

More than 300,000 acres of citrus lands were affected by Hurricane Milton, according to preliminary estimates in October by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Separate from the report, USDA data indicates US orange juice cold storage levels were at their lowest point at the end of October since the early 1970s.

In mid-October, we reported how top producer Brazil squeezed international orange juice markets following a devastating drought and widespread crop disease.

On Tuesday…

Food inflation remains stubbornly high.

END

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

Interesting!! what is Trump’s move?

Eric Trump: My Father Wants To Make U.S. The World’s ‘Crypto Capital’

Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 09:20 PM

Eric Trump, Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization, discussed President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for the crypto industry, emphasizing his father’s vision for the U.S. to become the “crypto capital of the world” during an interview with CNBC. 

ERIC TRUMP: I’ve been in crypto for a long time and so is my father, and I think he realizes that every country in the world is embracing it. People are running—look at where we are right now in Abu Dhabi. They’re putting billions of dollars into crypto, into digital technologies. If we don’t do it as America, we’re going to be left behind. He wants to make America the crypto capital of the world. He’s been very, very clear with that, and I applaud that.

Listen, right now, if you live in America and want to get a home loan, it takes you 90 days. How the hell does it take 90 days to get a home loan? By then, the house is already sold. Your dream is gone. There’s zero chance you’re getting it. There is nothing on blockchain that can’t be done better, faster, and substantially cheaper—not pushing paper. The banking system we have around the world, the modern banking system, is antiquated. It’s antiquated, and it’s just a matter of time before crypto not only catches up but really leaps ahead.

We’re incredibly excited on a lot of fronts, and I think America will be the crypto capital of the world. I fully support it, my father fully supports it, and our family fully embraces it. We believe in DeFi.  We believe that’s the way of the future. America better lead the way; otherwise, we’re going to leave a lot behind.

DAN MURPHY: All of this also comes back to regulation as well, and one thing your father has spoken about is incorporating new legislation, even deregulation, in the crypto space to really accelerate and move this forward. What does that look like?

ERIC TRUMP: It’s transparent, that’s what it is. The people in the crypto industry are frustrated that no one’s ever put together a sensible plan as to how to regulate an industry. They’re fine with regulation, but they just want guidelines, and they’ve said that. The problem is, you see so many companies have been so unfairly treated—so many lawsuits, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, people attacked, companies attacked—and they’re just saying, “Just give us the rules of the road, and we’ll obey them.”

And by the way, if you give us the rules of the road, chances are the rest of the world will follow. So I think sensible regulation makes a lot of sense. A lot of people think the crypto industry doesn’t want regulation, but that’s actually not true. They just want sensible regulation—regulation that they can follow, regulation that’s crystal clear, that’s black and white.

They don’t want to see people like Gensler, who was absolutely a disaster for crypto. He did everything he could to try and stifle innovation. He would do so, and those people have all been cleared out. I think they will put together good regulation. I think we will have a clear roadmap, and hopefully, the rest of the world follows that. Hopefully, we can lead by example because that’s what we should do as Americans. Hopefully, we truly are the crypto superpower of the world.

END

ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.01 PTS OR 0.85%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 292.00 PTS OR 0.42%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 476.71 OR 1.21%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .27%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2781 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2781// Oil UP TO 70.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.44 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2781

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2781

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 29.01 PTS OR 0.85%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 242.00 PTS OR 1.20%

2. Nikkei closed UP 476.91 PTS OR 1.21%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  106.41 EURO FALLS TO 1.0490 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.041 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.13…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.1455 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.234 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.786

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 2.936

3j Gold at $2686.55 /Silver at: 31.47  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 50/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 104.00

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  73 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.15  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.041% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8883 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9318  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.300 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.514 UP 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.166 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.88…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.3995 UP 2 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.139 UP 7 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.941 UP 7 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Drop, Yields Rise Ahead Of Fourth ECB Rate Cut

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 08:13 AM

US equity futures and European bourses trade lower as bond yields rise 2-3bps across the curve as Treasury yields rose ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting next week and ahead of today’s ECB rate cut (preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures slide 0.4% after disappointing guidance by Adobe sent the stock tumbling, even though pre-mkt, Mag7 names are mostly higher led by GOOG/TSLA, but Tech overall is lagging after the Nasdaq set a new ATH yesterday. Both indexes made strong gains on Wednesday, when an in-line US inflation print cemented swap markets’ expectations of a a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting. The USD is weaker and commodities are mostly bid led by energy, Ags, and base metals. Banks are weaker despite positive reports at an industry conference. Today’s macro focus is on PPI (Core exp. 0.2% MoM, 3.2% YoY) and Jobless Claims (exp. 220K).

In premarket trading, Adobe tumbled 11% after giving a disappointing annual sales outlook, underscoring anxieties that the software company may lose business to emerging artificial intelligence-based startups.

• Gambling.com Group (GAMB) climbs 5% as the company is in advanced negotiations to buy OddsJam, an online service that helps sports bettors find the best odds, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Keros Therapeutics (KROS) plunges 71% after halting higher dosing in a part of the drug developer’s trial of an experimental therapy for patients with a lung disease, citing side effects.
• Kroger (KR), whose planned merger with fellow grocery giant Albertsons was scuttled this week, climbs 2% after announcing a $7.5 billion share buyback program.
• Lovesac (LOVE) tumbles 19% after the furniture retailer cut its net sales guidance for the full year.

Next up we get the European Central Bank, which is expected to lower policy rates by a quarter-point, following on from the Swiss National Bank’s surprising 50 basis-point reduction earlier in the day. With an ECB cut, its fourth this year, already baked in, traders will wait for clues from rate-setters on the extent of loosening needed in this cycle.

“We anticipate a dovish 25-basis-point rate cut, alongside signals of flexibility on future adjustments,” said Mohamad Al-Saraf, an FX and rates analyst at Danske Bank. “Post-decision communication will be pivotal, given divisions within the Governing Council.” Ahead of the ECB, the euro firmed as much as 0.7% against the Swiss franc, while Switzerland’s stocks and bonds climbed immediately after the rate cut, which aims to prevent further franc gains and stop an inflation undershoot.

The ECB cut will be the latest of this week’s moves towards more policy easing by major central banks. Prior to the Swiss rate cut, Canada lowered its policy rates by a half point, Australia hinted it’s moving toward cuts and China vowed to deliver rate cuts. Japan, however, signaled it’s in no hurry to hike rates.

Traders are also waiting for US producer inflation numbers due later Thursday, alongside the weekly jobless claims print for further clues on prices and the health of the economy. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that still-elevated price pressures “argue for a shallow Fed easing cycle.”

Among individual stock movers, software firm Adobe Inc. dropped more than 10% in US premarket trading after a weaker-than-expected full-year forecast, while Uber Technologies Inc. was lifted by upbeat management comments at an industry conference.

European stocks are little changed as losses in retail and health care shares are offset by gains in autos and energy. Luxury goods firm Brunello Cucinelli SpA rallied after an increased revenue growth forecast. Luxury stocks were broadly firmer alongside other China-exposed sectors such as miners, after the country’s commerce ministry said it’s open to trade talks with the US. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Lonza shares jump as much as 7.7%, the most since July, after the health care group announced that it would divest from its capsule business at an appropriate time
• Diageo shares rise as much as 3.9% after the alcoholic beverage maker was upgraded by analysts at UBS in a note published on Wednesday. They believe the earnings downgrade cycle is approaching its end and see upside potential to its US business
• Grifols shares gained as much as 9.2% after the Spanish drugmaker raised €1.3 billion in a private debt placement and its long-term rating was upgraded by S&P to B+ from B
• Temenos shares gain as much as 7.9% to a one-month high after it received an upgrade to buy from hold at Jefferies, which sees the Swiss banking software firm’s new CEO and strategy as providing a “welcome kick-start”
• Brunello Cucinelli shares rise as much as 7.1% to a eight-month high after the luxury goods maker increased its revenue growth forecast. Analysts said that this shows the Italian firm’s resilience and the benefits of its exposure to the US market and wealthy clients
• Watches of Switzerland shares gain 4.1% after Kepler Cheuvreux lifts to buy on its exposure to high-end watches and the US market
• Inditex shares drop as much as 3.3%, after RBC downgraded the Zara owner to underperform from sector perform. RBC notes the valuation remains quite full, even with the sharp decline after Wednesday’s nine-month earning
• Sopra Steria shares fall as much as 6.9%, the most since July, after some analysts found the IT services provider’s new Ebit margin outlook disappointing. The firm’s management will explain its strategy at its capital markets day this morning
• Nemetschek drops as much as 4.8%, the most in 14 weeks, after JPMorgan starts coverage of the German real estate software firm at underweight and says earnings-growth trajectory is being overestimated by consensus
• SThree shares plummet as much as 36%, a record drop that has sent the stock to a four-year low, after the recruitment company significantly downgraded its profit expectations for FY25

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in tech shares after benign US inflation backed the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1.1%, the most in a week. Major contributors to the gauge’s rise included TSMC, Tencent and Samsung Electronics. A sub-gauge of information technology shares gained as much as 1.8%. The advance tracks a rally on Wall Street, where the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 1.9% to a record high. Also of focus in the region is whether China will release details on the outcome of a key economic meeting that’s expected to conclude Thursday. Benchmarks in Hong Kong rose more than 1% on bets for stronger stimulus. Japanese equities closed higher for a fourth consecutive day, supported by the yen’s recent weakness. Bloomberg News reported that Bank of Japan officials see little cost to waiting before raising interest rates. Shares in South Korea jumped on expectations that President Yoon Suk Yeol may get impeached in a parliament vote this weekend for his failed martial law bid. Some market watchers have been saying that his ouster will ease political uncertainty and help stabilize sentiment.

“We are yet to be convinced to go overweight in Chinese equities, largely because we have not really seen a meaningful pick up in domestic demand,” Dayeon Hong, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Shinhan Asset Management Co. in Seoul, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. She added that China may see more upside potential in growth next year if boosted by “moderately loose” monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index steadied as China set a stronger yuan fixing, a day after the currency weakened following a Reuters report that a depreciation was being considered. The euro adds a few pips ahead of the ECB decision where a 25-bp interest rate cut is widely expected. Most economists also saw the Swiss National Bank delivering a quarter-point reduction but policymakers opted for a larger 50-bp move, sending the franc to the bottom of the G-10 FX leader board with 0.2% fall against the dollar. The Aussie dollar is still the best performer, rising 0.8% after solid jobs data prompted traders to pare their rate cut bets.

In rates, treasury futures are near session lows in early US dealing as concession continues to build for $22 billion 30-year bond auction at 1pm New York time. Treasuries fell for a fourth day, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.30%. European government bonds also decline, led by Italy. Other factors include crude oil extending its weekly climb and a curve-steepening selloff in gilts. ECB rate decision at 8:15am is expected to be a quarter-point rate cut, following a surprise 50bp cut by the SNB. US yields are 2.5bp to 3bp higher across maturities, with the 10-year around 4.3%, outperforming gilts by roughly 1bp in the sector; US curve spreads are little changed on the day. Week’s Treasury auction cycle concludes with the 30-year bond reopening; demand was strong for Wednesday’s 10-year note sale , which stopped through by 1.7bp.

In commodities, oil prices are off the highs after the IEA said markets still face a glut next year despite the recent OPEC+ decision. WTI rises 0.2% to $70.40. Spot gold falls $5. Bitcoin rises back above $100,000.

Today’s US economic data calendar includes November PPI and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and 3Q household change in net worth (12pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,082.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 519.44
• MXAP up 0.7% to 187.53
• MXAPJ up 0.6% to 589.57
• Nikkei up 1.2% to 39,849.14
• Topix up 0.9% to 2,773.03
• Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 20,397.05
• Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,461.50
• Sensex down 0.4% to 81,228.48
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,330.26
• Kospi up 1.6% to 2,482.12
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.16%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.0513
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $73.83/bbl
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $73.84/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,716.44
• US Dollar Index down 0.16% to 106.54

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump invited Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration, CBS reported. Xi’s attendance would be unprecedented and may signal an effort by Trump to court him amidst threats of fresh tariffs against China. BBG
• The Bank of Japan is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady next week as policymakers prefer to spend more time scrutinizing overseas risks and clues on next year’s wage outlook. Any such decision will heighten the chance of an interest rate hike at the central bank’s subsequent meeting in January or March. RTRS
• The Japanese parliament’s lower house passed a ¥13.9 trillion extra budget to help finance PM Shigeru Ishiba’s economic stimulus package. BBG
• South Korea’s opposition filed a second impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol as more ruling party members indicated they’ll support it. BBG
• The Swiss franc fell after the SNB delivered a bigger-than-expected half-point cut to its key rate to 0.5%. Another reduction will probably come in March, taking the rate to 0.25%, citing pressure from the easing of other central banks. BBG
• Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, warned that Iran will see a significant increase in sanctions and pressure once the new administration takes office. BBG
• Hamas has yielded to two of Israel’s key demands for a cease-fire deal in Gaza, raising hopes of an agreement that could release some hostages within days despite the repeated collapse of previous negotiations. WSJ
• Oil markets globally will see plentiful supply in 2025 even if the OPEC+ production cuts aren’t unwound according to the IEA (oil supply is on track to increase 630K B/D this year and 1.9M in 2025 even in the absence of OPEC+ unwinding). IEA
• The US plans a new loophole-closing rule aimed at curbing Chinese firms’ sourcing of AI chips from unrestricted third-party countries, the SCMP reported. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually mimicked the sentiment on Wall Street and traded mostly higher following a slow start to the session and despite a lack of macro news flow. ASX 200 saw its earlier gains hampered after a strong Aussie jobs report which followed the dovish RBA yesterday, in which Governor Bullock said the Board will be watching all data including employment. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 40,000 level for the first time since mid-October with gains driven by the Industrial and IT sectors, although at one point, the upside was capped by the firmer JPY. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat lethargic at the start, but momentum picked up, although there was little  notable reaction seen on reports that US President-elect Trump invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, whilst it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation. Participants now await the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference.

Top Asian News

• South Korean opposition files a second motion to impeach President Yoon, via Bloomberg
• China’s Commerce Ministry say China is open to contact and communication with the Trump administration’s economic and trade team
• US President-elect Trump has invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, multiple sources told CBS News; it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation.
• BoJ is reportedly leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, according to Reuters sources; there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision, some believe conditions have been met for a December hike; BoJ could hike if FOMC decision triggers JPY selloff. Many policymakers appear in no rush to pull the trigger with little risk of inflation overshooting, sources added.
• Japanese companies are reportedly worried about tariff hikes and US-China relations, according to a Reuters survey; Nearly three-quarters of Japanese companies expect Trump’s next term to have a negative impact on the business environment.
• South Korean Finance Minister said they will closely monitor financial markets and respond to boost investor sentiment if needed, according to Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon said he will fight until the last moment, according to Reuters.

European bourses began the session entirely in the green, albeit modestly so. As the morning progressed, some indices slipped into negative territory to display a slightly more mixed picture in Europe. European sectors began the session with a strong positive bias, but in a turn of fortunes now display a mostly negative picture. Autos lead, followed by Energy/Basic Resources; the pair lifted by gains in the underlying. Retail is the clear underperformer, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session. US equity futures are very modestly on the backfoot, with the NQ paring back some of the hefty gains seen in the prior session.

Top European News

• UK RICS Housing Survey (Nov) 25.0 vs. Exp. 19.0 (Prev. 16.0); highest since September 2022.
• India-UK Free Trade Agreement talks to commence at the end of January, according to an Indian government source cited by Reuters.
• Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q4) 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.75% (Prev. 1.00%); “also remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”. SNB’s Schlegel says development of CHF is still the important factor. Remains willing to intervene as necessary. Rate cuts remain the main policy instrument if further easing is required. Uncertainty on future inflation path is high, inflationary pressure has decreased markedly over the medium term. SNB still has room for further interest rate moves. Main instrument is policy rate, with that can influence the economy and exchange rate. This step us intended to stabilise inflation between 0 and 2%. Can tolerate weakening of inflation below 0-2% target range, as long as it is temporary. SNB Chair Schlegel says the SNB does not like negative interest rates; the likelihood of negative interest rates has become small.
• German Economy expected to stagnated in 2025 (prev. forecast 0.5%); German GDP expected to expand by 0.9% in 2026.
• Ifo institute forecasts Germany’s growth between 0.4 – 1.1% in 2025. If German economy fails to overcome structural challenges, only 0.4% growth compared to the 1.1% if the right economic policy course is set. Expects 2.3% inflation in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, in both scenarios

FX

• USD is steady after an early bout of weakness that didn’t appear to be driven by any particularly obvious catalyst. Looking ahead, focus remains on price data following yesterday’s CPI report with PPI metrics due on deck. DXY remains within yesterday’s 106.26-80 range.
• EUR/USD is just about holding above the 1.05 mark in the run-up to today’s ECB rate decision. Consensus looks for the ECB to deliver a 25bps rate cut with just an 18% chance of a deeper 50bps cut. EUR/USD currently sits within yesterday’s 1.0480-1.0539 range.
• USD/JPY is a touch higher after a choppy APAC session which saw initial JPY strength fade following source reporting via Reuters that the BoJ is leaning towards keeping rates steady next week, albeit, there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision. Currently sits towards the top end of yesterday’s 151.00-152.86 range.
• GBP is relatively contained vs. the USD as UK-specific drivers remain light. Tomorrow’s monthly GDP print unlikely to be a gamechanger for the BoE. Cable briefly eclipsed yesterday’s best, printing a session peak at 1.2787 before settling into yesterday’s 1.2714-1.2782 range.
• AUD is at the top of the G10 leaderboard following the Aussie jobs report which saw Employment Change topping forecasts (driven by full-time employment) whilst the Unemployment Rate surprisingly fell to 3.9% despite forecasts of an uptick to 4.2% from 4.1%, although the Participation Rate surprisingly dipped. AUD/USD saw a boost nonetheless and moved back onto a 0.64 handle.
• CHF is on the backfoot after the SNB surprised markets by pulling the trigger on a deeper 50bps cut vs. expectations of a smaller 25bps move. The decision was accompanied by a reiteration that the Bank remains willing to intervene in the FX market as necessary whilst 2024 and 2025 inflation forecasts were lowered.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1854 vs exp. 7.2438 (prev. 7.1843)

Brazil Central Bank

• Brazilian Selic Interest Rate 12.25% vs. Exp. 12.0% (Prev. 11.25%); decision unanimous; in light of more adverse inflation scenario, the committee sees hikes of the same magnitude at the next two meetings.
• Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad said BCB decision was a surprise but pricing pointed to a move like that; and added there is no decision about changing the fiscal package, according to Reuters.
• Banxico financial stability report: Mexico’s financial system has a resilient and solid position; stress tests confirmed that the banking system as a whole has the capacity to absorb significant shocks.

Fixed Income

• USTs are in the red, but only modestly so. Action which came after a selloff emerged at the end of Wednesday’s US session into settlement, no specific driver behind this at the time. Currently at a low of 110-16 and continuing to slip from an initial 110-24 high print.
• Bunds are a little softer in-fitting with peers but ultimately awaiting the ECB later. Macro drivers otherwise have been somewhat light aside from the SNB which delivered a 50bps move. An announcement which sparked some modest EGB upside. As it stands, Bunds are at a 135.56 base having faded from an SNB-driven peak of 135.85, downside which was marginally added to by SNB’s Schlegel remarking that they do not like negative rates and the likelihood of a return to NIRP is small.
• OATs are a little softer with President Macron expected to announce his new PM today. As it stands, it is unclear who Macron will propose with the likes of former Justice Minister Bayrou and current Defense Minister Lecornu among those touted.
• Gilts are in-fitting with peers. Lost the 95.00 mark early doors and has since slipped to a 94.89 base.
• Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.70% 2027, 3.15% 2031, 3.35% 2035, 4.30% 2054 BTP:

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are incrementally firmer on the session, though only modestly so in comparison to the action seen on Wednesday. Nonetheless, benchmarks continue to advance on the USD 70/bbl and USD 73/bbl handles respectively; in recent trade, prices have almost entirely pared overnight strength. Downside was seen following the IEA OMR, where it cut its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast.
• Gold is essentially unchanged at the USD 2715/oz level. Unable to gain any traction amid ongoing USD strength and yield advances, though the metal has avoided a move into the red seemingly on the back of the tepid/mixed European risk tone.
• Base metals generally hold a positive bias; copper is a little more contained, with 3M LME just above the USD 9.2k mark.
• Saudi crude supply to China is to rise to around 46mln barrels in January, via Reuters citing sources (around 36.5mln in Dec., around 46mln in Nov).
• IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: cuts 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 840k BPD (prev. 920k BPD); raises 2025 forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 990k BPD), citing Chinese stimulus measures. World oil market looks comfortably supplied next year. Current balances suggest a 950k BPD overhand in 2025 if OPEC+ begins unwinding voluntary cuts as of the end of March 2025.
• India is reportedly to decide soon on whether to impose curbs on the imports of steelmaking raw materials, via Reuters citing sources.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli troops have entered Syria buffer zone on a temporary basis, according to Bloomberg
• “Hamas agreed to the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza after a ceasefire goes into effect”, according to Kann News.
• “Israeli army announces the withdrawal from the tents area in southern Lebanon in accordance with the ceasefire agreement “, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Other

• China’s President Xi says China is willing to strengthen strategic alignment with Russia, and tap into the intrinsic driving force of bilateral cooperation, via state media.
• Russia’s Navy Chief says that NATO has increased its military activity in the arctic region, via Ria; naval grouping of Russian nuclear forces has been completely renewed, via Tass.
• US President-elect Trump is reportedly considering ex-intelligence chief Richard Grenell as Special Envoy for Iran, according to Reuters sources; the article suggests consideration of a key ally for the position sends a signal that Trump may be open to talks.
• US House of Representatives passed USD 895bln defence policy bill, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 224,00008:30: Nov. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.6%, prior
  • Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
• 08:30: Nov. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • Nov. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • Nov. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%
  • Nov. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 3.1% 
• 12:00: 3Q US Household Change in Net Worth, prior $2.76t

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a decent performance yesterday, as the US CPI report came in broadly as expected, which was seen as giving the all-clear for the Fed to cut rates next week. That meant futures dialled up the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut to 99% by the close. And on top of that, the S&P 500 (+0.82%) ended the session just a whisker beneath its all-time high, with the Magnificent 7 (+3.08%) powering forward to a new record.

In terms of the details of that CPI print, the monthly headline and core CPI readings were both at +0.31% in November. So that was basically in line with the +0.3% print the consensus was expecting. So even though inflation was still running a bit too fast for the Fed to be comfortable, markets were relieved that it wasn’t an even higher number that would prevent the Fed cutting rates next week. After all, core CPI has now been running at +0.3% for four consecutive months, and the 3-month annualised rate for core CPI ticked up to +3.7%, so this isn’t just a case of one strong print. And in turn, that’s led to growing concern that inflation is becoming sticky above target, even if we’re not seeing the really high numbers of a couple of years ago. For the year-on-year numbers, the latest release meant headline CPI ticked up to +2.7%, whilst the core CPI print was steady at 3.3%, where it’s been for the last three months now.

Admittedly, one piece of good news was that shelter and services inflation moderated, and those are fairly sticky categories, even if this decline was offset by stronger goods prices. But even though Treasury yields fell by several basis points after the CPI print, lingering inflation concerns saw this move reverse later on. For instance, 10yr yields closed near the session highs (+4.5bps to 4.27%), rising for a third consecutive day despite a solid 10yr auction.

Nevertheless, when it comes to the Fed, the CPI print left little doubt among investors that another rate cut will happen next week. Indeed, futures moved up the likelihood of a cut from 86% right before the CPI came out to 99% by the close. It’s true that inflation is still too fast for their liking, but last week’s jobs report also saw a fresh rise in the unemployment rate, so our US economists think that will still enable them to cut next week.

Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as the ECB are announcing their latest policy decision at 13:15 London time. They’re widely expected to cut their deposit rate by another 25bps, taking it down to 3%, and that would bring their total rate cuts to 100bps since they began in June. Our European economists are also looking for a 25bp cut today, and they expect the doves and hawks to compromise on a mildly dovish evolution in communications. For next year, they then see the ECB continuing to cut by 25bps per meeting in H1, followed by quarterly 25bp cuts in H2, leaving the deposit rate at 1.5% by end-2025. See their full preview here for more details.

Ahead of the ECB, European assets put in a strong performance yesterday. At the front-end, bond yields fell across the continent, with French, Italian and Spanish 2yr yields falling to their lowest levels since 2022. And while 10yr bund yields inched up (+0.7bps), both the Italian and Spanish 10yr spreads over bunds reached their tightest level in three years yesterday, at 106bps and 63bps, respectively. Equities put in a decent performance too, with the STOXX 600 (+0.28%) clawing back some of the previous day’s losses as the DAX (+0.34%), CAC 40 (+0.39%) and FTSE 100 (+0.26%) all advanced.

For US equities, it was another day of the tech mega caps dominating. Four of the Magnificent 7 posted new record highs, namely Alphabet (+5.52%), Amazon (+2.32%), Meta (+2.16%) and Tesla (+5.93%). And Broadcom (+6.63%) surged after a report that it was working on an AI chip with Apple. That saw the S&P 500 (+0.82%) close less than 0.1% beneath its all-time high, even though the equal-weighted version of the index is still over -2% beneath its record.

Elsewhere yesterday, the Bank of Canada delivered a 50bp rate cut that took their policy rate down to 3.25%. That’s the second 50bp cut in a row they’ve delivered, but they sounded more cautious about future cuts, saying in their statement that “we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.” That saw the 10yr Canadian yield move +6.7bps higher to 3.08%.

Meanwhile in Germany, the election process started to get under way yesterday, as Chancellor Scholz requested a confidence vote next Monday in the Bundestag. It follows the collapse of the federal coalition last month, when Scholz sacked the finance minister Christian Lindner, who leads the FDP. Once the government loses the vote of no confidence, Scholz can then request an election from the President, which is planned for February 23.

Overnight in Asia, those strong gains on Wall Street have continued across the board, with global markets hopeful about another Fed rate cut. Most of the major indices have posted a decent gain, including the Nikkei (+1.28%), the Hang Seng (+1.31%), the CSI 300 (+0.59%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.50%) and the KOSPI (+1.22%). The only notable exception to that is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.28%), which follows a very strong employment report for November that’s led markets to dial back the likelihood of rate cuts from the RBA. It showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 3.9% (vs. 4.2% expected), and Australia’s government bond yield is up +8.0bps overnight in response, and the Australian Dollar has strengthened by +0.73% against the US Dollar. Looking forward, US equity futures are pointing a bit lower this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.13%, whilst the 10yr Treasury (+1.2bps) is up to 4.28% overnight.

Separately in the FX space, yesterday saw the Japanese yen weaken after Bloomberg reported that Bank of Japan officials saw little cost of waiting to hike rates. The report suggested that even if they waited until January or longer, they only saw a low risk of inflation overshooting. Following the report, investors further dialled back the likelihood of a December rate hike, and the Japanese Yen ended the session -0.32% weaker against the US Dollar, where it remains unchanged this morning. In the meantime, China’s offshore yuan weakened -0.29% yesterday, which followed a Reuters report that policymakers were considering allowing the currency to depreciate as a response to any trade war with the US.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. In terms of data, we’ll also get the US PPI for November and the weekly initial jobless claims.

2B European report

SNB surprise with a 50bps cut, Euro steady ahead of ECB – Newsquawk US Market Open

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 05:58 AM

• European bourses are mixed into the ECB, SMI outperforms post-SNB. US futures are modestly softer.
• SNB delivered a larger-than-expected 50bps cut and reiterated a willingness to intervene in the FX market as necessary.
• USD steady with peers and for the most part contained aside from CHF underperformance and Antipodean outperformance, AUD driven by jobs data.
• Fixed benchmarks are at/towards session lows into the ECB and US data thereafter, stateside yields are bid and the curve steeper.
• Crude in the green but only modestly so, base metals are little changed overall.
• Looking ahead, ECB Policy Announcement, ECB Press Conference, US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, Japanese Tankan Survey, Supply from the US, Earnings from Broadcom, Costco.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses began the session entirely in the green, albeit modestly so. As the morning progressed, some indices slipped into negative territory to display a slightly more mixed picture in Europe.
• European sectors began the session with a strong positive bias, but in a turn of fortunes now display a mostly negative picture. Autos lead, followed by Energy/Basic Resources; the pair lifted by gains in the underlying. Retail is the clear underperformer, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session.
• US equity futures are very modestly on the backfoot, with the NQ paring back some of the hefty gains seen in the prior session.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is steady after an early bout of weakness that didn’t appear to be driven by any particularly obvious catalyst. Looking ahead, focus remains on price data following yesterday’s CPI report with PPI metrics due on deck. DXY remains within yesterday’s 106.26-80 range.
• EUR/USD is just about holding above the 1.05 mark in the run-up to today’s ECB rate decision. Consensus looks for the ECB to deliver a 25bps rate cut with just an 18% chance of a deeper 50bps cut. EUR/USD currently sits within yesterday’s 1.0480-1.0539 range.
• USD/JPY is a touch higher after a choppy APAC session which saw initial JPY strength fade following source reporting via Reuters that the BoJ is leaning towards keeping rates steady next week, albeit, there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision. Currently sits towards the top end of yesterday’s 151.00-152.86 range.
• GBP is relatively contained vs. the USD as UK-specific drivers remain light. Tomorrow’s monthly GDP print unlikely to be a gamechanger for the BoE. Cable briefly eclipsed yesterday’s best, printing a session peak at 1.2787 before settling into yesterday’s 1.2714-1.2782 range.
• AUD is at the top of the G10 leaderboard following the Aussie jobs report which saw Employment Change topping forecasts (driven by full-time employment) whilst the Unemployment Rate surprisingly fell to 3.9% despite forecasts of an uptick to 4.2% from 4.1%, although the Participation Rate surprisingly dipped. AUD/USD saw a boost nonetheless and moved back onto a 0.64 handle.
• CHF is on the backfoot after the SNB surprised markets by pulling the trigger on a deeper 50bps cut vs. expectations of a smaller 25bps move. The decision was accompanied by a reiteration that the Bank remains willing to intervene in the FX market as necessary whilst 2024 and 2025 inflation forecasts were lowered.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1854 vs exp. 7.2438 (prev. 7.1843)
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are in the red, but only modestly so. Action which came after a selloff emerged at the end of Wednesday’s US session into settlement, no specific driver behind this at the time. Currently at a low of 110-16 and continuing to slip from an initial 110-24 high print.
• Bunds are a little softer in-fitting with peers but ultimately awaiting the ECB later. Macro drivers otherwise have been somewhat light aside from the SNB which delivered a 50bps move. An announcement which sparked some modest EGB upside. As it stands, Bunds are at a 135.56 base having faded from an SNB-driven peak of 135.85, downside which was marginally added to by SNB’s Schlegel remarking that they do not like negative rates and the likelihood of a return to NIRP is small.
• OATs are a little softer with President Macron expected to announce his new PM today. As it stands, it is unclear who Macron will propose with the likes of former Justice Minister Bayrou and current Defense Minister Lecornu among those touted.
• Gilts are in-fitting with peers. Lost the 95.00 mark early doors and has since slipped to a 94.89 base.
• Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.70% 2027, 3.15% 2031, 3.35% 2035, 4.30% 2054 BTP:
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent are incrementally firmer on the session, though only modestly so in comparison to the action seen on Wednesday. Nonetheless, benchmarks continue to advance on the USD 70/bbl and USD 73/bbl handles respectively; in recent trade, prices have almost entirely pared overnight strength. Downside was seen following the IEA OMR, where it cut its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast.
• Gold is essentially unchanged at the USD 2715/oz level. Unable to gain any traction amid ongoing USD strength and yield advances, though the metal has avoided a move into the red seemingly on the back of the tepid/mixed European risk tone.
• Base metals generally hold a positive bias; copper is a little more contained, with 3M LME just above the USD 9.2k mark.
• Saudi crude supply to China is to rise to around 46mln barrels in January, via Reuters citing sources (around 36.5mln in Dec., around 46mln in Nov).
• IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: cuts 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 840k BPD (prev. 920k BPD); raises 2025 forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 990k BPD), citing Chinese stimulus measures. World oil market looks comfortably supplied next year. Current balances suggest a 950k BPD overhand in 2025 if OPEC+ begins unwinding voluntary cuts as of the end of March 2025.
• India is reportedly to decide soon on whether to impose curbs on the imports of steelmaking raw materials, via Reuters citing sources.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• Swedish CPIF YY (Nov) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%); CPIF MM (Nov) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK RICS Housing Survey (Nov) 25.0 vs. Exp. 19.0 (Prev. 16.0); highest since September 2022.
• India-UK Free Trade Agreement talks to commence at the end of January, according to an Indian government source cited by Reuters.
• Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q4) 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.75% (Prev. 1.00%); “also remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”. Click for full details.. SNB’s Schlegel says development of CHF is still the important factor. Remains willing to intervene as necessary. Rate cuts remain the main policy instrument if further easing is required. Uncertainty on future inflation path is high, inflationary pressure has decreased markedly over the medium term. SNB still has room for further interest rate moves. Main instrument is policy rate, with that can influence the economy and exchange rate. This step us intended to stabilise inflation between 0 and 2%. Can tolerate weakening of inflation below 0-2% target range, as long as it is temporary. SNB Chair Schlegel says the SNB does not like negative interest rates; the likelihood of negative interest rates has become small.
• German Economy expected to stagnated in 2025 (prev. forecast 0.5%); German GDP expected to expand by 0.9% in 2026.
• Ifo institute forecasts Germany’s growth between 0.4 – 1.1% in 2025. If German economy fails to overcome structural challenges, only 0.4% growth compared to the 1.1% if the right economic policy course is set. Expects 2.3% inflation in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, in both scenarios

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli troops have entered Syria buffer zone on a temporary basis, according to Bloomberg
• “Hamas agreed to the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza after a ceasefire goes into effect”, according to Kann News.
• “Israeli army announces the withdrawal from the tents area in southern Lebanon in accordance with the ceasefire agreement “, according to Al Arabiya.

OTHER

• China’s President Xi says China is willing to strengthen strategic alignment with Russia, and tap into the intrinsic driving force of bilateral cooperation, via state media.
• Russia’s Navy Chief says that NATO has increased its military activity in the arctic region, via Ria; naval grouping of Russian nuclear forces has been completely renewed, via Tass.
• US President-elect Trump is reportedly considering ex-intelligence chief Richard Grenell as Special Envoy for Iran, according to Reuters sources; the article suggests consideration of a key ally for the position sends a signal that Trump may be open to talks.
• US House of Representatives passed USD 895bln defence policy bill, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a slightly softer footing, but still resides above the 100k mark.

LATAM

• Brazilian Selic Interest Rate 12.25% vs. Exp. 12.0% (Prev. 11.25%); decision unanimous; in light of more adverse inflation scenario, the committee sees hikes of the same magnitude at the next two meetings.
• Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad said BCB decision was a surprise but pricing pointed to a move like that; and added there is no decision about changing the fiscal package, according to Reuters.
• Banxico financial stability report: Mexico’s financial system has a resilient and solid position; stress tests confirmed that the banking system as a whole has the capacity to absorb significant shocks.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks eventually mimicked the sentiment on Wall Street and traded mostly higher following a slow start to the session and despite a lack of macro news flow.
• ASX 200 saw its earlier gains hampered after a strong Aussie jobs report which followed the dovish RBA yesterday, in which Governor Bullock said the Board will be watching all data including employment.
• Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 40,000 level for the first time since mid-October with gains driven by the Industrial and IT sectors, although at one point, the upside was capped by the firmer JPY.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat lethargic at the start, but momentum picked up, although there was little notable reaction seen on reports that US President-elect Trump invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, whilst it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation. Participants now await the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• South Korean opposition files a second motion to impeach President Yoon, via Bloomberg
• China’s Commerce Ministry say China is open to contact and communication with the Trump administration’s economic and trade team
• US President-elect Trump has invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, multiple sources told CBS News; it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation.
• BoJ is reportedly leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, according to Reuters sources; there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision, some believe conditions have been met for a December hike; BoJ could hike if FOMC decision triggers JPY selloff. Many policymakers appear in no rush to pull the trigger with little risk of inflation overshooting, sources added.
• Japanese companies are reportedly worried about tariff hikes and US-China relations, according to a Reuters survey; Nearly three-quarters of Japanese companies expect Trump’s next term to have a negative impact on the business environment.
• South Korean Finance Minister said they will closely monitor financial markets and respond to boost investor sentiment if needed, according to Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon said he will fight until the last moment, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Employment (Nov) 35.6k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 15.9k); Unemployment Rate 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%)
• Australian Participation Rate (Nov) 67.0% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.1%)
• Australian Full Time Employment (Nov) 52.6k (Prev. 9.7k)
• New Zealand Elec Card Retail Sale MM (Nov) 0.0% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%); YY (Nov) -2.3% (Prev. -1.1%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

APAC stocks trade higher, European futures flat ahead of the ECB – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 02:03 AM

• APAC stocks eventually mimicked the sentiment on Wall Street and traded mostly higher following a slow start to the session and despite a lack of macro news flow.
• DXY was flat whilst JPY saw mild strength and AUD was boosted by a strong Aussie jobs report after a dovish RBA.
• US President-elect Trump has invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month; it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation, according to CBS sources.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash closed +0.2% on Wednesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include SNB & ECB Policy Announcements, ECB Press Conference, IEA OMR, US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, Japanese Tankan Survey, Supply from US, Italy, Earnings from Broadcom, Costco.

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks mostly saw gains on Wednesday with Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology the sectoral outperformers and the former once again supported by Alphabet’s strength.
• Tech was further buoyed by gains in semiconductor names, highlighted by the SOXX ETF firming over 2.5%. Healthcare was the clear laggard.
• SPX +0.82% at 6,084, NDX +1.85% at 21,764, DJIA -0.22% at 44,149, RUT +0.48% at 2,394
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Bank of America (BAC) CEO Moynihan said US consumers are in pretty good shape, via GS conference, and companies are feeling stronger because of the favourable environment in the Trump administration. Moynihan added that M&A pipelines are full, and the IPO market is predicted to be stronger, while he expects regulatory changes will help get deals done.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks eventually mimicked the sentiment on Wall Street and traded mostly higher following a slow start to the session and despite a lack of macro news flow.
• ASX 200 saw its earlier gains hampered after a strong Aussie jobs report which followed the dovish RBA yesterday, in which Governor Bullock said the Board will be watching all data including employment.
• Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 40,000 level for the first time since mid-October with gains driven by the Industrial and IT sectors, although at one point, the upside was capped by the firmer JPY.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat lethargic at the start, but momentum picked up, although there was little notable reaction seen on reports that US President-elect Trump invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, whilst it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation. Participants now await the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference.
• US equity futures were subdued across the board as futures took a breather from the post-US CPI price action and with macro news flow in APAC hours somewhat light.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash closed +0.2% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY was flat throughout the session in a narrow 106.49-106.58 range, and within Wednesday’s 106.26-81 parameter, with macro news flow in APAC hours on the quieter side.
• EUR/USD printed on either side of 1.0500 as traders gear up for the ECB confab with the central bank set to pull the trigger on a 25bps cut.
• GBP/USD held above 1.2750 with UK drivers light this week ahead of next week’s deluge of UK releases.
• JPY strengthened as APAC players reacted to the Bloomberg sources piece which noted that the BoJ sees the next rate increase as a matter of time, with the pair eventually dipping under 152.00. USD/JPY later rose to session highs on source reports via Reuters that the BoJ is leaning towards keeping rates steady next week.
• Antipodeans were among the outperformers following the Aussie jobs report which saw Employment Change topping forecasts (driven by full-time employment) whilst the Unemployment Rate surprisingly fell to 3.9% despite forecasts of an uptick to 4.2% from 4.1%, although the Participation Rate surprisingly dipped. AUD/USD saw a boost nonetheless and held onto gains, whilst yesterday, RBA Governor Bullock said the Board will be watching all data including employment.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1854 vs exp. 7.2438 (prev. 7.1843)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures saw horizontal trade amid a lack of catalysts and following a strong 10-year auction post-US CPI.
• Bund futures were subdued but with price action limited heading into the ECB announcement, in which a 25bps rate cut is expected and will most likely maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts.
• 10yr JGB futures were initially softer in sympathy with Western counterparts, although price action is relatively contained in quiet trade.
• US sells USD 39bln 10-year note; stop-through 1.7bps. High Yield: 4.235% (prev. 4.347%, six-auction average 4.122%). WI: 4.252%. Tail: -1.7bps (prev. -0.3bps, six-auction avg. -0.2bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.7x (prev. 2.58x, six-auction avg. 2.55x). Dealers: 10.5% (prev. 14.7%, six-auction avg. 13.3%). Directs: 19.5% (prev. 23.6%, six-auction avg. 16.1%). Indirects: 70% (prev. 61.7%, six-auction avg. 70.6%)

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures took a breather after the price day’s surge amid the weekly DoEs coupled with the broader risk appetite, which saw WTI reclaim USD 70/bbl and Brent rise north of USD 73.50/bbl.
• Spot gold was subdued but held onto a USD 2,700/oz handle with the yellow metal dipping some USD 15/oz at the Chinese cash open before immediately trimming two-thirds of the move.
• Copper futures held an upward bias following yesterday’s US CPI and with traders now looking ahead to the findings from the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference.
• Natgas pipeline declares force majeure – Comp STA 343.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded flat in APAC hours at the USD 101k level after finding support at USD 100k.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US President-elect Trump has invited Chinese President Xi to attend his inauguration next month, multiple sources told CBS News; it was not clear whether Xi has accepted the invitation.
• BoJ is reportedly leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, according to Reuters sources; there is no consensus within the bank on the final decision, some believe conditions have been met for a December hike; BoJ could hike if FOMC decision triggers JPY selloff. Many policymakers appear in no rush to pull the trigger with little risk of inflation overshooting, sources added.
• Japanese companies are reportedly worried about tariff hikes and US-China relations, according to a Reuters survey; Nearly three-quarters of Japanese companies expect Trump’s next term to have a negative impact on the business environment.
• South Korean Finance Minister said they will closely monitor financial markets and respond to boost investor sentiment if needed, according to Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon said he will fight until the last moment, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Employment (Nov) 35.6k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 15.9k)
• Australian Unemployment Rate (Nov) 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%)
• Australian Participation Rate (Nov) 67.0% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.1%)
• Australian Full Time Employment (Nov) 52.6k (Prev. 9.7k)
• New Zealand Elec Card Retail Sale MM (Nov) 0.0% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%)
• New Zealand Elec Card Retail Sale YY (Nov) -2.3% (Prev. -1.1%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli Defense Minister said there is a chance for a deal that will release all hostages, including US citizens, according to Reuters.
• “Hamas agreed to the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza after a ceasefire goes into effect”, according to Kann News.
• “Israeli army announces the withdrawal from the tents area in southern Lebanon in accordance with the ceasefire agreement “, according to Al Arabiya.

OTHER

• US President-elect Trump is reportedly considering ex-intelligence chief Richard Grenell as Special Envoy for Iran, according to Reuters sources; the article suggests consideration of a key ally for the position sends a signal that Trump may be open to talks.
• US House of Representatives passed USD 895bln defence policy bill, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• The new French PM is reportedly set to be named on Thursday, according to a government source cited by Bloomberg
• UK RICS Housing Survey (Nov) 25.0 vs. Exp. 19.0 (Prev. 16.0); highest since September 2022.
• India-UK Free Trade Agreement talks to commence at the end of January, according to an Indian government source cited by Reuters.

LATAM

• Brazilian Selic Interest Rate 12.25% vs. Exp. 12.0% (Prev. 11.25%); Decision unanimous; in light of more adverse inflation scenario, the committee sees hikes of the same magnitude at the next two meetings.
• Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad said BCB decision was a surprise but pricing pointed to a move like that; and added there is no decision about changing the fiscal package, according to Reuters.
• Brazil’s President Lula is to undergo a new medical procedure on Thursday to prevent further bleeding in the brain, via local press.
• Banxico financial stability report: Mexico’s financial system has a resilient and solid position; stress tests confirmed that the banking system as a whole has the capacity to absorb significant shocks.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

South Korea in turmoil

(zerohedge)

South Korea’s Top Cops Arrested, Ex-Defense Chief Tries Suicide As Failed Martial Law Bid Rocks Country

Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 06:50 PM

South Korea continues to be rocked by aftershocks in the wake of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s aborted declaration of marital law. In a trio of jarring new developments, the country’s top two law enforcement officers have been arrested, the former defense chief attempted suicide in detention, and police raided the president’s office — all while a second impeachment vote looms this weekend with greater prospects for success.  

Late on Tuesday, police arrested South Korea’s former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who resigned on Thursday after a warrant was issued for his arrest for his alleged role in aiding Yoon’s martial law attempt. He then tried killing himself shortly after midnight in a detention center bathroom. His attempt was thwarted by a “control room staff member,” according to a report from the commissioner general of the Korea Correctional Service, and he’s said to be under close monitoring and in good health.

The first to be arrested over the constitutional crisis, Kim faces charges of “engaging in critical duties during an insurrection” and “abuse of authority to obstruct the exercise of rights.” A guilty verdict on the insurrection charge would expose Kim to a maximum penalty of death by hanging. While his method of suicide-attempt hasn’t been disclosed, it seems Kim wanted to skip the proceedings and administer his own form of justice.

Wednesday also brought word that South Korea’s two senior-most law enforcement officers have been arrested on insurrection charges. National Police Commissioner Cho Ji-ho and Seoul metropolitan police chief Kim Bong-sik are behind bars at Seoul’s Namdaemun police station, according to the South China Morning Post.

The two top cops are in hot water for deploying police to impede lawmakers who were trying to make their way into the parliament building to counteract Yoon’s martial law declaration. Then-Defense Minister Kim deployed soldiers to the same location. On Tuesday, Kim issued a statement taking responsibility for his actions and seeking to shield subordinates from consequences for their actions:

“All responsibility for this situation lies solely with me. My subordinates were simply faithful in following my orders and the missions that were given to them. I ask for leniency for them.” 

On Monday, the Justice Ministry banned Yoon from traveling overseas, at the request of police, prosecutors, and an anti-corruption agency. As the investigation intensified, President Yoon’s office was raided by police on Wednesday, as they sought evidence relating to his attempted imposition of martial law and the accompanying suspension of civil liberties and governmental checks and balances. 

The office search, which has been reported by local media but not yet confirmed by police or the president’s office as this is written, flies in the face of previous assurances by observers that the presidential security service would thwart any such raid. They’d pointed to a law barring the search of areas that hold state secrets without the consent of those responsible for such spaces.   

The rolling crisis began on Dec. 3, when Yoon stunned South Korea and the international community with a late-night declaration of martial law, which he claimed was necessary to “rebuild and protect” the country, and prevent it from “falling into the depths of national ruin.” The move came after an impasse over the country’s 2025 budget, and the attempted impeachment of three top prosecutors. In his announcement, Yoon railed against “shameless pro-North-Korean anti-state forces who are plundering the freedom and happiness of our citizens…I will eliminate anti-state forces as quickly as possible and normalize the country.”

As soldiers and police surrounded the National Assembly, the South Korean parliament’s speaker used his YouTube channel to summon legislators. All 190 who heeded the call voted to repeal the martial law declaration. Six hours after his shocking announcement, Yoon apologized for the move and retracted it, saying he’d acted out of “desperation.” 

An impeachment vote last weekend failed in the face of a boycott by the ruling People Power Party (PPP), but the Democratic Party (DP) has announced it will move for impeachment again on Saturday, and some PPP members are now voicing their support. Success requires a two-thirds majority of the 300-member assembly. DP leader Lee Jae-myung voiced confidence:  “The impeachment train has left the platform. There is going to be no way to stop it,” 

end

3C JAPAN

end

3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC

China/USA

ROBERT H…

important

China is on the move

Western diversion with Russia is very much a misplaced effort in hegemonic quests. Even forex ambitions require adaption to individual nations as opposed to control of centralized currencies. Decentralized forex is the twist being missed and now being discussed in China as a means of hegemony. Who would have thought?

 
Huawei’s Harmony OS is an achievement, and now on a major version upgrade. Its architecture allows it to scale across device classes. Then there’s the recent announcement of a better WIFI/Bluetooth; the innovations just keep coming. The western powers had leadership in the 19th and 20th centuries across science, technology, and industrial processes – well now it’s frankly all China. It means that BRICS countries can source just about anything from a fellow member state without having a need for the west. And China is now ceasing supply of resources to the US which throws a spanner into US chip production.

So much for sanctions!

But it does not stop with just a phone company making phones. It is part of a bigger story in hegemonic control. 

As early as 2028, china will achieve semiconductor supremacy against the USA, Japan and South Korea. Samsung is having nightmares. As the entire value chain is Chinese, China can soon sell chips anywhere at 20% to 50% discount against western ones. HELLO!!!! 

Once China  wins the semiconductor war by 2030, it will be in a solid  position to win both the hot geo military war and cold geo financial war against the US as well …… THIS IS WHY MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE WRITING THAT THE MANTLE OF HEGEMONIC CONTROL WILL SHIFT TO CHINA BY 2032!!!! The West is really poorly led. Because at some point the shift will be impossible to STOP. And if that day happens the whole of the West will change unlike anything seen in centuries as wealth and control transfers. 

NOTE THIS from the Chinese academy:

“According to data from China’s customs, between January and October 2024, the country exported chips worth 931.1 billion RMB, which is about $128 billion. Obviously, the figure is on track to exceed 1 trillion RMB, which is about $138 billion. For many, this figure is staggering, but its implications are even more profound.

The chips produced are first used domestically to meet internal demand, and only then are they available for export. China has long been the world’s largest semiconductor market, importing about $300 billion worth of chips annually. The fact that China is now poised to export over $138 billion worth of semiconductors suggests that its chip production has more than doubled this figure, allowing the country to meet internal demand.

According to Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global chip sales for 2023 stood at $526.8 billion. To put this in perspective, even if the global market grows to $600 billion in 2024, nearly half of the world’s chip would be produced in China. And at this pace, 70% of global chip production could come from China by the end of 2026.

Despite various challenges China’s chip industry faced between 2021 and 2023, the sector has entered a phase of rapid expansion, with annual growth exceeding 20%.”

This says little about the reality that Russia is literally building a whole city dedicated to chip manufacturing with machines made in Russia that leapfrog what ASML provides. With the same effort that has gotten into missile technology similar efforts and technology advances are made in CHIP Design and manufacturing. By the end of 2025 Russia will be independent of any other country in CHIP production and that includes China. 

From where will the WEST find customers when needed chips are available in much cheaper prices with better functionality??

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

ECB

ECB cuts rates as expected//Euro tumbles

ECB Cuts Rates As Expected, Euro Tumbles After Reference To “Restrictive Policy” Is Dropped

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 08:36 AM

As expected, the ECB cut rates by the bare minimum 25bps, avoiding a 50bps cut which some had penciled in and said is required at a time when Europe’s economy is in freefall even though inflation remains sticky. The ECB’s fourth rate cut of this easing cycle pushed the Deposit rate to 3.0% from 3.25%, and also trimmed the Refi Rate and Lending Facility rate to 3.15% and 3.40% respectively.

While the decision was inline, there were some big changes to the ECB’s policy language. Gone are the references to restrictive policy settings and inflation returning to the target. Reading between the lines here, the ECB judges it’s basically there.

NEW LANGUAGE:

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

OLD LANGUAGE

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.

The biggest highlight is that the ECB dropped the term “it will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim”. That reflects the fact that at 3.0%, even for the most hawkish members of the committee, the policy rate is considered to be neutral rather than restrictive. According to UBS, “this isn’t in itself a dovish signal, rather it’s a statement of fact. Policy isn’t considered to be restrictive so the reference has to go.”

twitter.com/pietphc/status/1867197669942149206?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctw

The ECB also downgraded the inflation section, which now has the line: “The disinflation process is well on track.” However, that’s tempered by the fact the inflation forecasts are still sending the same signal. Inflation averages above target in 2025 and is well above target on core, at 2.3% (which is unchanged from September’s forecast).

The ECB maintained in the statement the warning on wage growth: “[Inflation] remains high, mostly because wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay.”

Some more details from the report:

STANCE:

• Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• Monetary policy remains restrictive

ECONOMY:

• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections
• The gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy should support a pick-up in domestic demand

The ECB also downgrade its economic forecasts:

HICP INFLATION:

• 2024: 2.4% (prev. 2.5%),
• 2025: 2.1% (prev. 2.2%).
• 2026: 1.9% (prev. 1.9%),
• 2027: 2.1%

HICP CORE INFLATION (EX-ENERGY & FOOD):

• 2024: 2.9% (prev. 2.9%),
• 2025: 2.3% (prev. 2.3%),
• 2026: 1.9% (prev. 2.0%), 2027: 1.9%.

GDP:

• 2024: 0.7% (prev. 0.8%),
• 2025: 1.1% (prev. 1.3%),
• 2026: 1.4% (prev. 1.5%), 2027: 1.3%

According to UBS, the ECB’s commentary was “disappointing” with the refusal to acknowledge the economic challenges in the Eurozone or give any indication the markets are pricing correctly. The ECB said it was not pre-committing to any particular rate path. It said it was determined that inflation should stabilise sustainably at the 2% target. It said inflation had slowed, but remains high overall.

The euro fell to a fresh day low of $1.0470 and it’s down to the ECB dropping the ‘restrictive policy’ part from its statement. That doesn’t mean however that policy language is outright dovish. Moves in euro area bonds are muted.

There was also a  relatively choppy reaction in EGBs with Bund Mar‘25 slipping from 135.76 to 135.64 before paring and then lifting to 135.84 over the course of three minutes. Here is the latest ECB Pricing expectations:

• Jan‘25 -27bps
• Mar’25-63bps
• End-2025-125bps

And now we turn attention to Lagarde’s presser.

UK

My goodness the UK is in trouble with the integration of Muslims

(zerohedge)

MP Calls For UK Government To Embrace Muslim Culture Of Inbreeding

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Third-world immigration has led to some unsettling culture shocks over the last decade for Europeans and the population of the UK.  The rise in violent crime and rape incidents due to migrants is well documented in Europe.  The cultural “sharing” has been running rampant and finally the truth is starting to come out. 

In Germany, statistics show that in 2023 41% of all crime was linked to foreign suspects (migrants), while 75% of all victims were native German citizens.  In 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron admitted that around half of all crime in Paris was committed by foreigners. His claim was backed by data from the police headquarters and the ministerial statistical service for internal security, which showed that 70% of violent robberies and 75% of thefts in Paris in 2022 were committed by foreigners. 

Sweden’s massive spike in violent crime runs exactly parallel to their open borders policy and the rise in migrants from the third world.  Over 20% of the nation’s population is now made up of foreigners.  Migrant gangs spread across Sweden and in 2022 Primer Minister Magdalena Andersson admitted that “integration had failed”. 

The list goes on and on.  In the UK, such data is generally suppressed and the government refuses to acknowledge the relationship between increasing migration from certain cultures and the spike in criminal violence.  So much so that British officials are ordering the arrest of anyone who complains about the issue on social media. 

It’s not just the rise in crime that’s the problem; there’s also the imposition of disturbing cultural habits that the western world widely abandoned decades ago.  Inbreeding is just one of these habits – It was made predominantly illegal in the western world once genetic factors were understood, but it might make a comeback as mass immigration changes the demographic landscape.   

UK MP Iqbal Mohamed argued this week that the government needs to stop legislation banning cousin marriages because they are common in Muslim culture and because a ban would be “stigmatizing”:

“Instead of stigmatising those in cousin marriages or those inclined to be, a much more positive approach would be to facilitate advanced genetic test screening for prospective married couples, as is the case in all Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, and more generally to run health education programmes targeting those communities where the practice is most common.”

“I would therefore urge the House to vote against this motion and find a more positive approach to addressing the issues that are caused by first-cousin marriages, including the health risks and the consequences of modern conflicts and displacement of population around the world.”

The MP did acknowledge that the practice leads to a litany of health problems and recommended a “screening process”, but he did not specify what problems are commonly associated with consanguineous marriage.  Inbreeding is a plague within Muslim populations, with some Muslim nations containing genetic anomalies in the majority of their people.  In Pakistan, for example, over 70% of marriages involved genetically related partners (usually between first or second cousins). 

Inbreeding, especially over the course of multiple generations, causes a number of genetic mutations including  the HTR2B Q20 mutation.  This mutation has been linked to loss of impulse control, extreme violence and psychopathy.  In other words, cultures that practice inbreeding as a norm are far more inclined to violent behaviors the west often associates with the worst kinds of criminals.    

Keeping it “in the family” is preferred in Muslin society as a means to maintain generational wealth, but also as a form of suppression for women.  In Sweden the practice is about to be banned due to health concerns, but also due to arranged marriages (forced marriages) and the use of women as bartering property.  UK legislators have been working for years to make cousin marriages illegal, but consistently face opposition.

The UK government is perhaps the most blatant villain today when it comes to the forced multiculturalism agenda.  Their open hostility towards the native western public is becoming legendary.  Their policies require adaptation on the part of native residents rather than integration on the part of migrants.  In other words, the UK argues that it is up to the native public to embrace the ideologies and habits of incoming migrants, and if they don’t, they could be accused of bigotry (which can now lead to fines and prison time). 

But isn’t it correct to admonish cultural practices that lead to destructive behaviors?  Maybe some cultures are simply wrong.  Maybe some traditions should not be welcomed.  Maybe western culture is in many ways superior, and perhaps it’s time for the third world to adapt to western values rather the west taking a step backwards into the dark ages?  Or. maybe the two cultures should stay away from each other?  The multicultural experiment has obviously failed – Why continue pretending like it has inherent value?

END

EUROPE

They are blowing their brains out trying to use wind power

(zerohedge)

Wind Power Has Hit Its Limits In Europe

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 04:15 AM

Europe is starting to reach its limit when it comes to wind power.

Countries like Denmark and Sweden, once leaders in expanding offshore wind capacity, are now hitting obstacles as power prices and incentives fall too low to support new projects, according to Bloomberg.

A recent Danish auction for offshore wind saw no bids, highlighting the issue. This slowdown in wind development risks prolonging reliance on fossil fuels, as rising costs challenge the sector’s earlier success in driving down prices.

Denmark, which generated a world-leading 58% of its electricity from wind last year, saw no bids in its largest-ever offshore wind tender. Companies like state-owned Ørsted A/S cited unattractive investment conditions, with low electricity prices driven by an oversupply of wind power.

The Bloomberg report says that Sweden faces similar challenges, as years of rapid wind expansion have depressed returns, discouraging new projects. Delays and cancellations of green industrial projects in the north further cloud future demand.

The UK’s goal to phase out fossil fuels by 2030 will require a major shift in power consumption to align with renewable energy’s fluctuating supply, says the grid operator. Currently, record amounts of wind power are wasted due to grid limitations.

Unlike coal and gas plants, wind farms operate whenever conditions allow, often resulting in excess supply and even negative power prices.

While solar faces similar issues, falling panel costs have lessened the impact. The wind sector, however, is grappling with rising costs for materials like steel and labor. Encouraging consumers to adjust demand—especially with electrification of transport, heating, and industry—could stabilize prices and drive investment in clean energy.

Brian Vad Mathiesen, a professor at Aalborg University in Denmark, commented: “We cannot have an electricity system that’s based solely on wind and solar. There are stark technical and economic limits to how much we can integrate into the grid.”

END

GERMANY

Germany is faltering terribly. This is what they did to knock themselves out

(RealClearMarkets)

Germany Is An Economic Model For What Not To Do

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Rainer Zitelmann via RealClearMarkets.com.,

Many Germans liked to see their country as a global leader in the fight against climate change. Despite Germany being responsible for only 1.5 percent of man-made CO2 emissions worldwide, advocates for climate action argued that Germany could serve as a role model for other nations. These self-appointed “saviors of the world” believed that if Germany led the way, others would soon follow.

But it would now seem that Germany has become more of an anti-role model than a role model. Germany’s economic situation is getting worse every month. Growth is lower than in almost any other OECD country.

BASF, once the largest chemical company in the world, is cutting thousands of jobs in Germany and redirecting several billion euros of investment to China. Germany’s largest steel manufacturer, ThyssenKrupp, last week announced plans to cut 11,000 jobs. The company had received two billion euros in subsidies on condition that it transition to producing “green steel” using hydrogen, which is totally uneconomical. BASF and ThyssenKrupp both cited Germany’s exorbitant energy prices and gargantuan bureaucracy as reasons for their decisions.

There has been a significant increase in the number of companies filing for insolvency. The current rate is 66 percent higher than the average for the month of October in the years 2016 to 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to a study conducted by EY, fewer and fewer foreign companies want to invest in Germany. The number of foreign direct investment (FDI) greenfield and expansion projects in Germany has decreased by 12 percent compared to the previous year. This marks the sixth consecutive decline and the lowest level of investment activity since 2013.

EY identified Germany’s energy policy as a major deterrent for industrial investors. The combination of a recessionary environment, high energy prices, and uncertainties surrounding energy supply are all highlighted as key factors, along with high labor costs and bureaucratic complexities, all of which serve to further discourage foreign investors.

Estimates of the total costs of the German climate transition vary between 1.8 trillion euros (ifo Institute) and 6 trillion euros (McKinsey). But the indirect costs are even higher. A key component of German and European climate policy is the “mobility transition,” which entails a mandated shift towards e-mobility. The EU has banned the registration of cars with combustion engines from 2035. Consequently, the German automotive industry has been plunged into a severe crisis. Volkswagen has announced plans to lay off tens of thousands of employees and close multiple plants in Germany. Major automotive suppliers such as ZF, Continental, and Bosch have also announced tens of thousands of redundancies.

The German automotive industry, once a global leader that the whole world looked up to with admiration, has become a basket case. The heart of the German economy is stuttering.

Housing construction in Germany has also slumped dramatically. On the one hand, the number of immigrants arriving in Germany keeps on rising, while on the other, less and less new housing is being built. There are 20,000 building regulations and countless rules that have made building more ‘climate-friendly’ and far too expensive.

The origins of Germany’s current economic woes can be traced back to the administration of Angela Merkel, rather than Olaf Scholz’s recently collapsed government. The economic situation in Germany was good not because of, but in spite of her policies. She benefited from the market reforms and tax cuts implemented by her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. Merkel not only failed to introduce any new reforms during her time in office, she instead exacerbated existing problems, particularly in the realm of energy policy. As was noted here five years ago, Germany’s energy policy is the dumbest energy policy in the world.

The battle against climate change is often cited as the number one objective of our day and age, the one paramount issue that should guide all political decision-making. However, Germany’s decision to shut down its nuclear power plants has led the country to rely on imported nuclear power and electricity from coal-fired power plants overseas. And, despite banning fracking domestically, Germany continues to import LNG gas produced through fracking from the United States. An irrational policy riddled with contradictions.

Is Germany at least the world champion in climate protection? No, Germany holds a respectable third place in the Environmental Performance Index, but in the category of climate protection, of all things, it only comes in seventh place (Great Britain is in fifth place).

Germany wanted to be world champion not only in climate policy, but also in migration and social policy. But the combination of generous social benefits and open borders has not worked.

Today, 64 percent of those on welfare, known as Bürgergeld (“citizen’s income”) have a migration background. The social system is overloaded, crime is rising sharply.

Instead of being a role model for the rest of the world in climate policy and migration policy, as many German politicians had hoped, Germany has now become a cautionary tale. Once again, the model of a planned economy has failed: In a market economy, it is the companies, and ultimately the consumers, who decide what is produced. In contrast, in a planned economy, decisions are made by politicians who believe they know better than millions of entrepreneurs and consumers. In this respect, the rest of the world can learn something from Germany, namely a lesson in what not to do.

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/ISRAEL.MOUNT HERMON

Why Israel Took Mount Hermon In Lebanon

by Portfolio Armor

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 3:35

Why Israel Took Mount Hermon

In the chaos after the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, Israel sent troops forward from the Golan Heights and took Mount Hermon. In the thread below, Naftali Hazony, a former Israeli Air Force fighter pilot, explains why. 

Following that, we’ll close with a brief trading note. 

twitter.com/nhazony/status/1866140291889000637?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%

end

/SYRIA

an excellent read from Korybko

(Korybko)

What’s (State-Funded) Russian Media Saying About Syria’s Regime Change?

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Publicly financed Russian media’s reaction to Syria’s regime change is a lot different than most could have expected after they earlier warned that this could lead to an unprecedented terrorist crisis.

Those concerns were warranted since Turkish-backed Harat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is designated as a terrorist group and was originally part of Al Qaeda. Nevertheless, these outlets’ reactions have been surprisingly calm, thus suggesting a desire to play everything by ear for the sake of retaining Russian influence there.

RT published two very thought-provoking op-eds since the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) epic collapse and Assad’s cowardly flight from Damascus that are worth reviewing in this context. The first is by Murad Sadygzade, who’s President of the Middle East Studies Center and Visiting Lecturer at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, and answers the question of “Why did Syria fall so fast and what happens next?” He began by drawing attention to foreign meddling but then dove into domestic details.

This approach is noteworthy since it had hitherto been very rare for publicly financed Russian media to talk about the Assad Government’s many shortcomings, but Sadygzade candidly addressed them:

“A key turning point came when Assad lost the support of even those who had stood by him for years. Economic hardships, sanctions, and a growing sense of hopelessness led many to believe that change was inevitable, even if it came at the cost of destruction. The strategic mistake of the ruling elite – betting on a military solution to the conflict while ignoring political dialogue, both domestically and internationally – ultimately left Assad vulnerable to determined and well-organized adversaries.”

The second RT op-ed is a republication of an article by Gazeta.ru political analyst Vitaly Ryumshin under the title “Assad’s collapse was coming – everyone just looked away”. Here are the highlights:

“Assad’s Syria had been rotting from within for years. The country was locked in a perpetual humanitarian and economic crisis, with 90% of Syrians living in poverty and widespread malnutrition. Desperate families took out loans just to buy food but couldn’t pay them back. Power outages crippled even Damascus, sometimes leaving the capital dark for 20 hours a day. Electricity prices soared by up to 585% in the spring of 2024 alone, pushing an already destitute population deeper into despair.

The Assad government offered no solutions – only mounting repression. Under crushing sanctions, Damascus couldn’t secure foreign loans, and with its oil fields under US-Kurdish control, there was nothing left to trade. Even Syria’s illicit drug trade, once a lifeline, couldn’t plug the gaping holes in state finances. Profits disappeared into the pockets of warlords and traffickers, not the state treasury.

Meanwhile, Assad’s underpaid, demoralized army, bled dry by years of civil war, continued to disintegrate. For a time, Iranian proxies like Hezbollah propped up his forces, but by 2024, they’d shifted their attention to fighting Israel. Attempts to draw Russia further into Syria’s quagmire fell flat. Moscow, busy elsewhere, had no interest in bailing Assad out.”

Ryumshin also twice referred to the Assad Government as a “regime” in back-to-back sentences, writing that “In the south and southeast, dormant rebel cells rose up, striking a final blow against Assad’s hollowed-out regime. On Sunday, opposition forces stormed Damascus from several directions. Bashar al-Assad, whose regime withstood over a decade of civil war, finally fell from power.” It’s a stunning change in RT’s editorial policy that they didn’t replace that previously taboo word before republishing.

Perhaps they listened to what their senior correspondent and veteran Syrian War journalist Murad Gazdiev told them in an interview, where he concluded that “Assad’s govt fell due to corruption, lack of organization, and motivation”. He has a decade worth of experience covering this conflict so his post-mortem on Assad’s Government should be taken very seriously. Publicly financed TASS also editorialized the word “regime” into a headline about Syria on Tuesday in a related visible change of policy.

The day prior, they described HTS’ chief as an “armed opposition leader” without referencing the US’ $10 million bounty on his head for terrorist-related crimes or even his connection to such groups. TASS also reported how “Syrian Embassy operating as usual under new flag”, which implies Moscow’s tacit (key qualifier) acceptance of this regime change in the sense of continuing to recognize those Syrian diplomats as official representatives of the new ruling arrangement who are allowed to keep working.

Their press review of Vedomosti’s article about the future of Russia’s military bases in Syria adds context to why that tacit acceptance appears to have been made. Ibragim Ibragimov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told them that “I don’t exclude that a new format of military-technical cooperation will appear soon and that Russian military instructors will play a role in establishing a new Syrian army.” That would be an intriguing turn of events.

It might not be as far-fetched as some think provided that there’s political will and the right conditions to make it work, the latter of which would require the non-terrorist anti-government opposition (NTAGO) to separate itself from terrorist-designated groups and figures. Moreover, such groups and figures would have to prove that they’ve changed their ways, just like the Taliban have sought to do since returning to power in mid-2021 to regain Russia’s trust and try to have restrictions on cooperation with them lifted.

To that end, meaningful progress on implementing UNSC Resolution 2254 from December 2015 would go a long way, which Assad refused to do for reasons beyond the scope of this analysis. The Russian-written draft constitution that was unveiled during the first Astana Summit in January 2017 could also be revived to serve as a model for the constitutional reform that this resolution obligates Syria to undertake. Assad had unofficially rubbished it due to the concessions that he was asked to make.

Judging by what the head of the Syrian armed opposition delegation to the Astana talks told Sputnik and the president of the Syrian Negotiation Commission told RT, these two internationally recognized NTAGO platforms want to retain positive relations with Russia. That could explain why the leader of the new interim Syrian government, Mohammed al-Bashir, was described by TASS as someone who “joined anti-government armed units supported by foreign funding” instead of the previously typical foreign proxy.

Reflecting on publicly financed Russian media’s reports about Syria’s regime change, it therefore appears as though the Kremlin signaled to those outlets within its “sphere of influence” to withhold publishing worst-case scenario forecasts for now while their country’s diplomats try to avert an even worse crisis. The worst might still be yet to come, but it hasn’t yet unfolded and might still be prevented, hence the importance of them remaining calm and reciprocating the new ruling arrangement’s positive messages.

end

SYRIA/

Calls Grow For Syrian Refugees In Europe To Return Home After Assad’s Fall

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has sparked calls for Syrian refugees in Europe to return to their homeland.

With Damascus now declared liberated by a group of rebels on state television, European leaders and Syrian opposition groups alike are urging refugees to consider repatriation, as the reasons for their initial flight no longer apply.

The overthrow of Assad has brought wild celebrations in Syria among exiled Syrians, with thousands taking to the streets of European cities this weekend to rejoice over the end of his 24-year-long regime.

Crowds have already begun forming at the Masnaa border crossing in Lebanon, with refugees waving green opposition flags and singing in celebration. Similarly, vast queues were seen at the Turkish border.

Images circulating on social media show freed prisoners emerging from the notorious Saydnaya military prison, many of whom had been detained for decades.

German officials are now debating the implications for Syrian refugees, many of whom are under “subsidiary protection” due to the ongoing civil war.

Professor Volker Boehme-Neßler, a constitutional law expert, told Bild that the regime’s collapse could mean a shift in their legal status. “If the reasons for flight disappear, even recognized asylum seekers have to travel,” he explained.

Hesse’s Interior Minister Roman Poseck (CDU) emphasized Germany’s interest in the return of Syrian refugees.

“We are very interested in getting refugees from Syria returned to their homeland, voluntarily or as part of deportations. There should be no compromises with criminals. Our safety must be a priority here,” he told the German tabloid.

Despite the optimism, experts warn of potential instability in Syria. Islamologist Susanne Schröter cautioned that the rebels, predominantly Islamist factions, are unlikely to establish a government meeting Western democratic standards. However, such a state could align with the values of many of those who fled the previous regime in the first place.

“The rebels are mainly Islamists. I think it is unlikely that a democratic state in the Western sense will emerge under their influence,” she said. “However, this is not necessarily an obstacle to the possible repatriation of refugees from Germany because many of these refugees themselves adhere to fundamentalist Islam.”

The reverse, however, could still happen, with some warning of a potential exodus of those fleeing as a result of the deposition of Assad.

“If this is the harbinger of another period of greater chaos in Syria, then there is still a large number of people in the country who have not left, many of whom may feel unsafe and may try to leave the country,” warned Rob McNeil, deputy director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University.

Read more here…

END

SYRIA/ISRAEL

surprising!

Damascus Airport To Open In ‘Next Few Days’ But Israel Still Controls Skies

Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 11:00 PM

The government of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus on Wednesday said that it expects Damascus International Airport to reopen within days, which would be a surprising and unexpected development.

It had been closed since the dramatic events of HTS-led forces entering the capital, and Assad and his top officials fleeing the country. The airport’s director Anis Fallouh said it will reopen “in the next few days” – according to the AFP.

“God willing, the airport will reopen as quickly as possible because we are going to work flat out,” Fallouh said. “We can quickly resume flights through Syrian airspace.”

For now, however, it seems unrealistic that any flights will land or take off from the airport given that Israeli warplanes have been bombing the country non-stop for at least 72 hours. This has included the targeting of at least 350 Syrian Army sites, as well as facilities for the production of chemical weapons.

With Israeli warplanes roaming the skies, commercial flight travel over Syria remains highly dangerous. There’s also the fact that the various al-Qaeda factions now in control of Syria have gained access to at least some of Syria’s remnant anti-aircraft missile arsenal, such as MANPADS.

There have also long-been NATO-supplied shoulder-fired missiles all around Syria, supplied to the ‘rebels’. Below appears to be evidence of this…

Only Cham Wings, a private Syrian airline and Syrian Air, the country’s national airline, had been continuing to operate up to the dramatic events of the last ten days. 

But Al Jazeera has noted of the status of these defunct airlines, “Aircraft maintenance official Samer Radi said there were currently 12 aircraft on the ground, one of which had been stripped of its equipment by looters during the takeover by opposition forces.”

It’s unclear whether these carriers will be reestablished, or a timeline for potential operations. At this moment the country and population are also starved of fuel, after days ago an Iranian tanker en route to Syria turned around as it became clear the Assad government was in collapse.

Before the war, British Airways and Emirates had frequent flights to and from Damascus. But immense hurdles remain in what is still basically a war zone and questions over the fact that a US-designated terror organization is now running the show in Damascus.

“So far, the operations of Syrian Air have been extremely restricted,” explained one industry analyst. “Everybody would want to reopen flights into Damascus, which obviously is a significant destination for the Gulf.”

“Airlines will have to individually go and do a damage assessment, a liability assessment and a review of what’s happened, what’s workable, what’s permissible, as well as what’s functioning and what is not,” the analyst continued.

end

ISRAEL/SYRIA

(JERUSALEMPOST)

IDF attacks have permanently changed the face of Syrian military threat

90% of advanced anti-aircraft missiles were destroyed, and SU-22 and SU-24 aircraft squadrons were destroyed.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 12, 2024 17:00Updated: DECEMBER 12, 2024 17:43

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-833201&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241212_1c3894f2c24f32135c65b5e9b6556e9f1197587d&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The Israeli air force, more than 500 attacks on Syria’s military assets in a 48-hour period this week since the fall of the Assad regime, have permanently and radically altered the threat that any future Syrian regime can pose to the State of Israel, the IDF said on Thursday.

This means that in the worst-case scenario, if Syria’s new rulers, the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), decide to be hostile to Israel, they will not be able to immediately threaten the Jewish state with anywhere near the kind of advanced and long-range weaponry which the Assad regime wielded.

Unveiling a slew of staggering statistics, the IDF noted that it destroyed over 90% of Syria’s advanced anti-aircraft missiles, especially the SA22 and SA17 systems, which were sometimes shooting down portions of Israeli attacks on the smuggling of Iranian weapons through the area.

In total, about 85% of Syria’s air defenses were destroyed, including less advanced systems.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3814144&url=www.jpost.comIDF strikes on infrastructure and surface-to-air missile launchers in Syria, December 12, 2024 (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

SU-22, SU-24 aircraft squadrons destroyed

Next, the IDF said that Syria’s SU-22 and SU-24 aircraft squadrons were completely destroyed, and, in total, around 40% of the Syrian air force.

100% of Syrian explosive drones were destroyed and 390 significant Syrian firepower targets were destroyed by the air force.

Besides these more active attack systems, the air force now has a stunning air superiority in Syrian airspace which it could never have dreamed of as long as the Assad regime was intact, because it has destroyed essentially all of Syria’s radar capabilities.

IDF sources said that the Syrians still have no idea what they have lost in terms of potential threats to Israel and that it could take them a significant amount of time to decipher this, especially given that the Syrian army which was used to handling these weapons melted away last weekend.

In a broader sense, the IDF said that it had destroyed around 80% of Syria’s larger-scale firepower.

At the same time, IDF sources admitted that this number could be overly optimistic as there may be firepower items which Syria concealed underground which the IDF did not find or succeed in striking.

That said, the IDF said it had succeeded in identifying and striking a number of underground Syrian military targets.

Moreover, the IDF said that Syria now has only one still existing border crosspoint for potentially transferring weapons to Hezbollah, which means the Lebanese terror groups’ rearming project will be much harder to accomplish.

This is in addition to the fact that most of Iran’s presence has been removed from Syria out of fear of revenge from HTS, given that Iran fought on the side of the Assad regime since the Syrian civil war started in 2011.

IDF sources also said that there are signs that the HTS may completely expel Russia from Syria. Some observers have said that Moscow may try to renegotiate its presence under very different conditions, such that HTS would have real control of all of the territory and Russia would truly only serve as a guest helper if and when needed, but which retain some Russian foothold.

Besides Syria, the IDF said that prior to the November 26 ceasefire, it had eliminated basically all of Hezbollah’s Drone Unit 127 leadership, which means that that unit cannot currently carry out any complex or coordinated attacks.

While the IDF has previously said it destroyed around 70-80% of Hezbollah’s long-range and strategic weapons, in terms of its broader command structure, the percentage is said to be closer to 60-70% destroyed.

END

WEST BANK/ISRAEL

Young boy killed, several bus passengers wounded in West Bank terror shooting

Jerusalem hospital declares death of Yehoshua Aharon Tuvia Simha, 12, after he’s critically hurt in attack; 3 victims treated for moderate and light wounds; gunman turns himself in

By Alexander FulbrightToday, 4:42 am

Israeli security forces and paramedics are seen following a deadly terror shooting attack targeting a bus in the West Bank, early December 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean); inset: Yehoshua Aharon, 10, who was critically hurt in the attack and died following it (Courtesy)

A young boy was fatally shot and several people were wounded in a terror attack targeting a Jerusalem-bound bus in the West Bank late Wednesday night.

The 12-year-old child was brought in critical condition to Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem in nearby Jerusalem, where doctors declared his death early Thursday following intensive efforts to save him.

He was later named as Yehoshua Aharon Tuvia Simha of the Beitar Illit settlement — from where the bus had departed.

Three others were hurt in the shooting: a woman who suffered moderate wounds and two other people who were lightly hurt.

Yehoshua Aharon Tuvia Simha, killed in a terror shooting in the West Bank on December 11, 2024 (Courtesy)

The bus was shot up by the gunman at a junction by the Palestinian town of al-Khader, the Israel Defense Forces said, before proceeding with the wounded to the Tunnels Checkpoint.

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The Palestinian terrorist turned himself in, Israeli defense authorities said on Thursday morning.

Ezz Aldin Malluh, from the town of Beit Awwa near Hebron, who turned himself in after carrying out a deadly terrorist attack late on December 11, 2024.

The IDF, Shin Bet, and police said he did so amid their “exertion of military pressure in the area” — including by encircling Bethlehem.

He was named as Ezz Aldin Malluh from the town of Bayt Awa near Hebron.

He initially tried to turn himself in at a Palestinian Authority police station in the area, where his weapon was taken from him but he was refused entry.

Contrary to some reports, authorities said, he was not afforded protection at any stage by the PA security forces.

A video clip filmed shortly after the shooting showed passengers fleeing the bus after it arrived at the checkpoint, as security forces there rushed toward the vehicle amid the sound of gunfire. It was not clear from the footage where all the shots emanated from.

The attack came after three Israelis were lightly injured by gunfire the previous night while visiting Joseph’s Tomb in the Palestinian city of Nablus without coordinating with the military, and also followed a car-ramming attack in the southern West Bank over the weekend in which a soldier was seriously wounded.

Violence has risen sharply in the West Bank since the Gaza war started on October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed southern Israel to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages.

Israeli security forces at the scene of a deadly terror shooting attack in the West Bank near the “Tunnel” checkpoint south of Jerusalem, December 12, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

Since then, 42 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank.

Another six members of the security forces were killed in clashes with operatives in the West Bank amid a major counterterrorism offensive that has been accompanied by sharp restrictions on Palestinian movement.

Medics at the scene of a terrorist shooting attack south of Jerusalem on December 11, 2024 (Magen David Adom)

Israeli troops have arrested some 5,250 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank as part of the post-October 7 military operations, including more than 2,050 affiliated with Hamas.

According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, some 800 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in the same span of time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops or terrorists carrying out attacks.

Times of Israel staff and agencies contributed to this report.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

this is big!

Moscow Threatens Retaliation After Ukraine Strikes Russia With 6 US-Made ATACMS Missiles

Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 12:05 PM

Moscow has announced a very serious escalation out of Ukraine on Wednesday, with defense ministry officials saying that six US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles were launched against a Russian airfield inside the country’s sovereign territory.

Taganrog is a Black Sea port city in southwestern Russia, and was targeted in the heavy attack. The military claimed that all six were able to be intercepted and downed before reaching their target, with two reported intercepts by a Pantsir air defense system, and the others destroyed after electronic warfare systems diverted them.

“Missile fragments caused injuries among personnel. There was no destruction, but two buildings in the airfield’s technical area and three military vehicles sustained minor shrapnel damage. Civilian vehicles in a nearby parking lot were also damaged,” the Russian Defense Ministry statement said.

Apparently this damage occurred through “falling fragments of the missiles” according to the ministry, which also vowed that retaliation is coming for the strike.

“This attack by Western long-range weapons will not go unanswered, and appropriate measures will be taken,” it added, but without specifying anything further.

It appears that at least other drones or missiles which were part of the broader assault made it through Russian aerial defenses:

In the early hours of Wednesday, Dec.11, multiple explosions shook the city of Taganrog in Russia’s Rostov region, regional governor Yuri Slyusar reported, describing the attack as a “missile strike.”

The attack, reported around 4:20 a.m., triggered air defense systems and caused at least ten explosions, local residents told the Shot Telegram channel. Eyewitnesses suggested the target might have been a military airfield, according to CHEKA-OGPU Telegram channel.

It was only in September that President Vladimir Putin declared new ‘red lines’ for the conflict, asserting that any long-range attack on Russia with West-supplied missiles would be viewed as the as the “direct participation” of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine.

“It would substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” he said at the time, shortly after Washington finally approved its change in policy to allow such attacks. “This will mean that Nato countries, the USA and European states, are fighting with Russia.”

With the ATACMS and other Western systems, NATO personnel actually have to assist directly with satellite and targeting data, which includes being able to “input flight missions into these missile systems” – as Putin described earlier.

Putin could now order a major attack on Kiev, or command and control centers of Ukraine’s armed forces. Russia has also been targeting locations where it’s believed that Western munitions are held. 

All of this will no doubt make it harder for the incoming Trump administration to negotiate a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, something he’s vowed to begin from the moment he enters office again.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, December 2-9, 2024

Actors Scott L. Schwartz (Oceans 11), Mark Withers (Dynasty); comic ‘Kabeezy’ Singh (39); influencer Dominique Brown (34); TV doc Kelly Powers (45, C); 8 journos; 52 infants; 4 MDs; 10 nurses; & more

Ocean’s Eleven star dead – George Clooney leads tributes to wrestler turned actor Scott L. Schwartz after he dies aged 65

December 4, 2024

ACTOR Scott L. Schwartz has died at the age of 65 at his home in Louisiana [Nov, 26]. Schwartz, who had a background as a professional wrestler, was best known for starring alongside George Clooney and Brad Pitt in the Ocean’s Eleven film franchise. The 6ft 10in actor died from congestive heart failure in Covington, his rep said. Clooney paid tribute to Schwartz – describing him as a “gentle soul”.

Link

Upgrade to paid

Stranger Things actor Mark Withers passes away at 77 due to cancer

December 8, 2024

Dynasty and Stranger Things actor Mark Withers passed away at 77. His daughter, Jessie Withers confirmed the news to Variety on December 6 that the actor had a battle with pancreatic cancer. As per the portal, Mark passed away on November 22.

Link

Main Street Theatre Works Company Member Allen Pontes Has Passed Away

December 8, 2024

Roseville, CA – According to a statement released by Main Street Theatre Works, company member Allen Pontes [66] passed away after a battle with brain cancer on Friday, November 8^th.

Link

Comedian Kabir ‘Kabeezy’ Singh Dead at 39

December 6, 2024

Kabir “Kabeezy” Singh, who competed on America’s Got Talent in 2021, has died. He was just 39. The comedian passed on Wednesday, Dec. 4, law enforcement sources confirmed to TMZ, revealing that, while they believe he may have died from natural causes, they are still investigating. An official cause of death won’t be determined until they receive Singh’s toxicology results, but he reportedly had a history of unspecified health issues. Jeremy Curry, a friend of Singh’s, revealed in a Facebook post on Dec. 5 that he “passed away peacefully in his sleep,” while other sources confirmed to the publication that Kabir was in the San Francisco Bay Area when he passed. It’s unclear if Singh lived in San Francisco or if he was just visiting, but it appears his most recent stand-up gig happened on Nov. 2, based on his Instagram account, where he excitedly invited fans to each of his shows. His next scheduled appearance was set for Feb. 15^th at Southern Regional Tech. College Foundation in Thomasville, GA, according to his website.

Link

Dominique Brown, 34

December 8, 2024

A Disney-inspired social media influencer, Dominique Brown, 34, died after suffering a medical emergency during a lunch in downtown Los Angeles hosted by the pop-culture themed retail merchandiser BoxLunch on 5 December.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Nine journalists “died suddenly”:

Fox News commentator, doctor Kelly Powers dead at 45 after cancer battle, overcoming illnesses to give birth: ‘Luckiest unlucky girl’

December 3, 2024

Fox News commentator and doctor Kelly Powers has died after a long battle with cancer. She was 45. Powers was first diagnosed with brain cancer after facing a series of health complications in 2020, and went into remission before the deadly illness returned this year. She was a regular on the Fox News talk show Red Eye, and made appearances on Fox Business where she led segments on health risks facing Americans. A successful podiatric surgeon, Powers was educated at the New York College of Podiatric Medicine and did her residency at Georgetown and the Boston University School Of Medicine. After years of helping patients, Powers became one herself while hosting a Fox News segment about heart health when she began to experience shortness of breath and chest pains. “It’s crazy – I went into heart failure while doing a report on Fox Business – live – on heart health and talking about the subtle signs that women often miss. You can’t make this up,” she told Preferred Health Magazine in an interview after her first diagnosis. She battled through that ailment, only to discover she had the aggressive brain cancer glioblastoma a short time later. After three surgeries, chemotherapy and radiation, she managed to beat the cancer back — all while becoming pregnant and giving birth to a boy, according to a GoFundMe. When her cancer returned in 2024, friends raised nearly $100,000 to help pay for an experimental treatment that insurance wouldn’t cover.

Researcher’s Note - Fox News Requires Employees to Report Vaccination [sic] Status, Mandates Masks for Workers in ‘Confined Spaces’: Link

Link

Beloved NBC4 meteorologist Bob Nunnally dies just months after declaring ‘I’m cancer-free’ in devastating video

December 9, 2024

A BELOVED former meteorologist has died at 68. Bob Nunnally’s family announced his death on Sunday. Nunnally was a well-known journalist across radio and TV in Columbus, Ohio, for over four decades. He stepped back from his position as Columbus’ NBC affiliate WCMH weatherman in 2022 to focus on beating pancreatic cancer. Earlier this year, he shared a video announcing he successfully beat cancer, but he had complications during his recovery. “I’m cancer-free,” he declared in a video shared with WCMH in May. He revealed that he thought he’d return to work after surgery, but the recovery was more complicated than he expected. He died on Sunday morning, just days after entering hospice care on Friday.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Adam Pemble, AP journalist whose compassionate lens brought stories to life, dies at 52

December 8, 2024

BERLIN — Adam Pemble, an Associated Press video journalist who covered some of the biggest global news of the past two decades, from earthquakes and conflicts to political summits and elections, has died. He was 52. Pemble died Thursday in Minneapolis surrounded by friends and family, according to his friend Mike Moe, who helped care for him in the final weeks of his fight against cancer.

Link

Longtime Investigative Journalist Has Died At 64

December 8, 2024

A longtime investigative journalist for the Washington Post has died this week. He was 64 years old. Robert O’Harrow Jr., a longtime investigative journalist at The Washington Post, passed away on Dec. 4, according to an obituary from his family.

Researcher’s note – The article is behind a paywall, but according to his wife, the cause of death was cancer: Link

Link

Journalist Robin Ayers has passed away

December 7, 2024

Los Angeles, CA – The media world is mourning the loss of Robin Ayers, a beloved journalist, author, and radio host, who tragically passed away on Thursday, December 5. She was 45 years old. As of now, the exact cause of Robin Ayers’ death has not been publicly disclosed. However, in 2023, she revealed she was battling Leiomyosarcoma (LMS), a rare and aggressive cancer that affects soft tissues, often in the abdomen or uterus.

Link

Fashion Journalist Walter Greene Dies at 74

December 6, 2024

Fashion journalist Walter Greene, who supported and encouraged generations of Black creatives and models, died in New York on Dec. 2. Funeral services are being planned for Greene, 74, who died in his Uptown New York City apartment. The cause of Greene’s death is not yet known, according to his niece Alana Doornick. Without identifying the deceased by name, the New York Police Department confirmed that a 74-year-old male was found on Dec. 2, at the address where he resided. A non-criminal investigation is underway.

Link

White Sox All-Star, broadcaster ‘Beltin’ Bill’ Melton, 79, dies

December 6, 2024

Chicago White Sox All-Star third baseman and broadcaster Bill Melton died Thursday in Phoenix after a brief illness. He was 79.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Legendary sports writer Bob Holt dies aged 65 just days after collapsing at press conference

December 5, 2024

Arkansas sports writer Bob Holt has died at the age of 65 four days after collapsing following a press conference from a football game between the University of Arkansas and the University of Missouri on Saturday. According to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Holt was rushed to a hospital after he collapsed before he died on Wednesday night. No cause of death has been provided.

Link

NYC Memorial Planned for Lucid News Co-Founder Ken Jordan

December 5, 2024

Ken Jordan [63], the co-founder and editorial director of Lucid News, will be remembered by friends and family at a gathering in New York City this month. Jordan died unexpectedly on May 12, 2024, leaving this news service as his legacy. He believed in the transformative power of psychedelics for healing and the importance of global psychedelic communities. As a journalist and editor, Jordan passionately believed in the importance of accurate and balanced information about psychedelics.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Reese G of 3Piece passes away, confirmed by brother Martin Walker

December 6, 2024

Reese G, a founding member of the Chicago-based R&B group 3Piece, passed away earlier this week. While the cause of his death remains undisclosed, his brother and bandmate, Martin Walker, confirmed the sad news on December 5 via Facebook. Reese G, born Maurice Walker [49], was a cornerstone of 3Piece, a group known for its smooth vocals and charismatic stage presence. Throughout their career, Reese and 3Piece collaborated with high-profile artists such as Kanye West, Mary J. Blige, Omarion, and Jay-Z.

No cause of death reported.

Link

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

URGENT, present HHS Secretary Becerra who will be replaced by Robert Kennedy Jr. just moved to EXTEND the PREP Declaration Countermeasures Against COVID–19 to 2029! What? Will Trump/RFK Jr. at HHS

really reverse this hour one after sworn in? Are we on our own? Will Trump fix wrong of Operation Warp Speed, lockdowns, will he stop Malone et al. mRNA gene vaccine & end LIABILITY PROTECTION (PREP)?

Why the hell will PREP ACT be extended when the emergency is OVER? It is done, years now! The fake pandemic that was NOT a pandemic is done! The mRNA vaccine has failed! What do they have in the works? Are they really creating a more dangerous pathogen? To deliberately release on us so we will rush to take the Malone Bourla et al. mRNA transfection gene lipid nano particle (LNP) platform (not a vaccine) vaccine that we DO NOT want? Are they really doing this? Bringing a fake fraud avian bird flu? If they did this, it will be a crime against humanity. We will not take the mRNA vaccine anymore and so are they bringing another PCR-manufactured (over-cycled false-positive) fake avian bird flu non-pandemic to drive us to take mRNA vaccine for that?

Is their decision to TRANSITION all vaccines to mRNA vaccines something we have no choice in? We the people?

Yet Becerra just extended PREP ACT, liability shied for all those involved, mRNA vaccine makers, Pfizer, Moderna, Bourla, Bancel et al., CDC, NIH, FDA, HHS etc., medical doctors etc. Are we really outplayed and were played, rolled in the elections? When will the 5-D chess end? When will POTUS Trump nominate someone with expertise and who stood against the OWS, the lockdowns, the mRNA gene vaccines? Someone credible enough to balance the existing picks?

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Will we get a statement now by Trump and/or Kennedy Jr. saying they will reverse PREP ACT and the LIABILITY PROTECTION shield done by then HHS Secretary Azar ~27th March 2020?

‘The Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act authorizes the Secretary of Health and Human Services (the Secretary) to issue a Declaration to provide liability immunity to certain individuals and entities (Covered Persons) against any claim of loss caused by, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from the manufacture, distribution, administration, or use of medical countermeasures (Covered Countermeasures), except for claims involving ‘‘willful misconduct’’ as defined in the PREP Act. Under the PREP Act, a Declaration may be amended as circumstances warrant.’

So, the HHS Secretary, the present one now moves to extent the PREP Act to 2029? Why? What do they know? What is coming? What lockdowns and deadly vaccines do they have planned that Trump and Kennedy Jr. and Bhattacharya and Makary will HAVE to go along with?

2024-29108.pdf

END

FBI Director Chris Wray has just resigned as FBI Director! BOOM! Now we must investigate him and jail him if it is shown he broke laws!

EVOLS NEWS

SLAY NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

FRANCE

Political Turmoil In France Could Worsen Europe’s Energy Problems

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Political instability in France, Europe’s top electricity exporter, raises concerns about reduced power exports and exacerbates the energy crisis.
• Rising natural gas prices and depleting storage threaten European industry competitiveness this winter, potentially leading to production cuts.
• Europe’s energy woes highlight the continent’s vulnerability in the global energy market, particularly with the looming end of Russian gas supplies.

Europe’s natural gas and power prices are rallying again as the proper heating season begins, adding to concerns that a new energy crisis is brewing.

The political turmoil in the top European electricity exporter and second-largest economy, France, certainly is not helping.

A prolonged government crisis after the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier last week could result in reduced electricity exports from France to its interconnected markets, including Germany and Italy, Reuters market analyst Gavin Maguire argues.

This would be another layer of energy shock for European markets, which have been grappling with rising electricity and natural gas prices in recent weeks.

The rising budget deficit and the possibility of a no budget for 2025 could lead to politicians in France looking to curb the high French electricity exports, according to Reuters’s Maguire.

Considering that France is Europe’s top exporter of electricity, this would have repercussions on the power markets and prices across Europe.

With the fall of the government, any improvement of France’s public finances will now be postponed until a new government is formed, ING analysts said last week.

As a state-owned firm, France’s electricity giant EDF has contributed to the country’s piling public debt.

But EDF’s large nuclear reactor fleet that provides around 70% of France’s power and the rebound in hydropower generation have allowed France to boost its electricity exports this year. 

“Buoyed by strong nuclear and hydroelectric output, France has exported record amounts of electricity to neighboring countries this year, despite limitations on eastern interconnections that restricted exports in the spring,” energy firm Engie said in its semi-annual briefing on the European energy market in September.

Electricity demand in France remains below 2020 levels, partly due to a loss of industrial output and competitiveness and consumer energy-saving efforts, Engie said, noting that demand has rebounded more quickly in Germany, the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

France’s net exports of electricity are set to hit a record high in 2024, data from French grid operator RTE shows. That’s because maintenance on many nuclear reactors has been completed, and hydropower generation has rebounded. 

There is no imminent threat to France’s huge power exports. Yet, the political instability in Europe’s largest net electricity exporter makes the European power markets even more nervous. 

Europe’s industry is set to lose further competitiveness as high energy prices, rising natural gas prices, and concerns about gas supply this winter are increasing uncertainty about factory utilization amid rising costs.

European benchmark natural gas prices are hovering around a one-year high hit last month as cold snaps in November dashed hopes and prayers of a third relatively mild winter in a row.

In recent weeks, Europe has been depleting its natural gas stocks at the fastest pace since 2016 as demand has increased with the colder temperatures.

This adds to the looming end of Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 and growing competition for spot LNG supply with Asia for winter demand.

This winter could inflict more pain on industries relying on natural gas and force curtailments in production, analysts and industry executives have told Reuters.

The much higher energy costs in Europe are putting its industries at a disadvantage compared to the U.S., Asia, or the Middle East.

For example, the current Dutch hub price is almost five times higher than the benchmark U.S. natural gas price at Henry Hub.

The highest spot-based electricity prices in Europe since February 2023 threaten industrial production in key economies and loom large over business sentiment.

Amid rising energy prices and fast-depleting natural gas inventories, European energy markets are more anxious than usual as the governments of the two biggest economies, Germany and France, have now collapsed. 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BRICS

CANADA

.

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0490 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 152.13 DOWN 0.153 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2726 DOWN .0039

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4169 UP 0.0019 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 29.01 PTS OR 0.85%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 242.04 156.23 OR 1.20%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.27%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 242.00 PTS OR 1.20%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.01 PTS OR 0.85%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.27%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 476.91 PTS OR 1.21%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2705.10

silver:$31.76

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 106.41 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM  WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.590% UP 9 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.041% DOWN 1 AND 5/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.771 UP 4 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.282 UP 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1680 UP 5 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0499 DOWN .0006 OR 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 152.24 DOWN 0.042 OR YEN IS UP 4 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.3965 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0036 OR 36 BASIS pts  to 1.4184

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED D0WN 7.2752 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2751)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.87 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.041

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  4.316% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.533 UP 6 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.170 UP 2  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2683.00

SILVER AT 11;00: 31.14

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 10.14 PTS OR 0.12%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 27.11 OR 0.13%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 2.46 PTS OR 0.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED up 24.53 OR 0.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 126.06 OR 0.36%

WTI Oil price  69,31 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  72.65 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  104.50 ROUBLE UP 1 AND  50/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1680 UP 5 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3995 UP 4 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.148 UP 7 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.939 UP 5 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0470 DOWN 0.0035 OR 35 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2669 DOWN 0.0095 OR 95 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.362 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.043

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.63 UP 0.377 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4213 UP 0.0065 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 65 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.26

Brent OIL:  73.56

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 4.334

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.553%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT  4.191

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.169 UP 8 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.963 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 106.69 UP 29 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.89 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  104.98 UP 0 AND  53/100 roubles

GOLD  2,682.15 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.96 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 234.44 PTS OR 0.53%

NASDAQ DOWN 148.71 PTS OR 0.68%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.73 UP 0.23 PTS OR 1.10%

GLD: $247,28 DOWN 3.68 OR 1.47%

SLV/ $28.20 DOWN 0.84 OR 0-.2.89%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 254.42 PTS OR 0.99%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING

MORNING TRADING/

END

II USA DATA

Jobless Claims Explode Higher In First Week Of December

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 08:45 AM

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time jumped significantly last week (from 225k to 242k – well above expectations of 220k) – the highest since the first week of October.

On an un-adjusted basis, claims exploded higher (highest since January)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and in case you need someone to blame for this utter farce – it’s California of course. Just look at the last four weeks of unadjusted claims – exploding higher and crashing lower like a penny stock? Must be all those sanctuary-seeking illegals?

Continuing jobless claims remains below the 1.9mm Maginot Line (1.886mm) – hovering near the highest levels since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The seasonals in the initial claims data is just the ‘excuse’ The Fed needs to feed the beast with another rate-cut next week… and then ‘revise’ the print lower once again.7,55864

END

PPI read hot!

Producer Price Inflation Comes In ‘Red Hot’ In November

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024 – 08:36 AM

Following yesterday’s reported re-ignition in consumer price inflation (despite people seemingly being exuberant that it was ‘as expected’ – we don’t remember The Fed’s mandate being stable prices in line with consensus expectations?), this morning’s producer prices were expected to accelerate further also to +2.6% YoY from +2.4% YoY.

But it didn’t…

Headline PPI surged 0.4% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) – biggest MoM jump since June – which lifted the YoY rise in producer prices to +3.0% – far above expectations and the highest since Feb 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PPI’s big jump was driven by food costs (rising at their fastest since Nov 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

A quarter of the November rise in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 54.6-percent jump in the index for chicken eggs.

Prices for fresh and dry vegetables, fresh fruits and melons, processed poultry, non-electronic cigarettes, and residential electric power also increased. In contrast, the index for oilseeds declined 4.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel and for primary basic organic chemicals also decreased.

Services costs are accelerating fast on a YoY basis and Energy’s deflationary pressure is evaporating rapidly…

Source: Bloomberg

Not only was much of the PPI report better than expected, the underlying components were too.

The percentage of those rising on an annual basis is at 80%.

As the chart shows, this is typically consistent with PPI remaining elevated.

Spot the difference (food costs just hit a new record high)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM as expected but the YoY core PPI jumped dramatically to +3.4% YoY – also the hottest since Feb 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Given the resurgence in money supply, it should not be a surprise that PPI (and CPI) are on the rise again…

Source: Bloomberg

Does that look like an inflationary backdrop that needs a rate-cut next week?

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Government Spending Shock: US Budget Deficit Soars In Worst Start To Year On Record

Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 – 06:00 PM

We thought last month’s US budget deficit was bad. Boy, were we wrong.

It is only fitting that the twilight days of the Biden admin would exhibit more of the same fakeness that defined not only all of the past four years, but certainly the fakeness of that Kamala Harris presidential campaign which had a billion dollars a month ago and ended up in failure, broke… and millions in debt. We are talking, of course, about the relentless debt-funded spree that somehow became synonymous with economic success in the US.

According to the latest Treasury data released today, in November – the second month of fiscal 2025 – the US spent a massive $584.2 billion, a 14% increase from the prior year, and a record for the month of November. For those who remember out outrage from a month ago, will also remember that the latest deficit number follows what was also a record government outlay for the month of October.

On a trailing 6 month moving average basis, to smooth out outliers months, the spending hit $586 billion, effectively at an all time high with just the record spending spree during covid pushing government spending higher.

The surge in spending was driven primarily by higher spending on health, defense and Social Security, but mostly a huge $50BN spike on Medicare outlays!

The long-term chart of government spending shows what we all know: DOGE or not DOGE, there is no stopping this train.

The surge in spending was far greater than the much more modest increase in tax revenues: in November, the US government collected $301.8 billion in taxes, up 9.8% from the $274.8 billion last November. As shown in the next chart, while spending continued to grow exponentially, tax receipts have flatlined, and the 6 month average in October was just $380 billion, the same as three years ago!

To be sure, there were some calendar effects in play. Recall that last month we said that October 2023’s tax receipts were unusually higher due to deferred tax receipts that were received that month from companies and individuals affected by disasters including wildfires in California. Taking that into account, the October budget deficit would have been 22% higher (and would offset the freak September surplus which we are convinced was staged to make the last month of fiscal 2024 look abnormally good for the Biden admin). And since some of this calendar effect also nets in November, to avoid the calendar shifts across months we combined the first two months of fiscal 2025.  What we got was this shocker of a chart: 

It shows that in October and November, the US deficit exploded to a staggering $624.2 billion, and even though this included several calendar adjustments – which explains the freak September surplus which as we said was due to calendar effects – the November deficit of $367 billion was $14 billion more than consensus estimates of $353 billion. Worse, combining October and November we find that not only was the combined number of $624 billion some 64% higher than the corresponding period one year ago, but it was also the highest deficit on record for the first two-months of the year (and that includes the spending insanity during the covid crisis).

Putting the deficit in context, the budget deficit in October and November – the first two months of fiscal 2025 – are now officially the worst start a year for the US Treasury on record.

Taking a closer look at what has been the most terrifying trend in the US income statement for some time now, the Treasury’s debt-servicing costs rose once again in November. Gross interest costs totaled $87 billion, up $7 billion from $80 billion in the same month a year before.

And if the November print seems low by recent standards, just wait one month: the December gross interest payment will be an absolute shocker as that’s when the bulk of interest payments take place. For December, expect a number north of $150 billion in interest alone!

And while we wait, this is what a chart of LTM spending across the main categories looks like. Yes, gross interest spending is not only the second largest outlay for the US government, just shy of $1.2 trillion, it’s also the highest it has ever been, and will continue rising, especially if/when the Fed ends its easing cycle prematurely due to rising prices sparking the next meltup…. in US interest payment.

The good news is that for now (certainly until the December explosion), the surge in US interest payments has been delayed. That’s because the weighted average interest rate for total outstanding debt at the end of November was 3.36%, at roughly 15-year highs, but down slightly from the month before, the third monthly decline.

However, don’t expect this decline in interest spending to persist because even though the Fed has cut rates twice since September, this has been more than offset by the surge in debt which at last check was now $36.2 trillion, up half a trillion from a month ago, and unless Elon’s Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) manages to somehow slash trillions in both spending and interest, this is what US debt will look like for the next few years, guaranteeing that interest on said debt will very soon become the single largest spending category for the US government.

For those who were still unsure if buying votes has a cost associated with it, now you know.

The mindblowing figures illustrate the monumental challenge for Trump and all those promising to rein in US debt, which has exploded to 120% of GDP after four years of Biden’s “drunken-sailor” spending ways. The last hope for the US is that Trump has tapped Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to look at ways to cut spending. Alas, these figures show that the bulk of the outlays are in areas that are bound to be a politically explosive to address, in other words any cuts even remotely close to the $2 trillion suggested by Vivek would lead to a full-blown deep state revolt… and government cataclysm.

It’s also why attempts to reroute the US from its inevitable collision with the iceberg of fiscal devastation will likewise end in ruin.

end

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING

KING REPORT

The King Report December 12, 2024 Issue 7389

Independent View of the News

Japan’s wholesale inflation accelerates, keeps BOJ rate-hike plan in focus     Wholesale inflation hits 3.7% yr/yr in Nov vs f’cast +3.4%     Yen-based index falls 1.2% yr/yr, after 2.2% drop in October     Data suggest firms remain under pressure from higher costs     BOJ to meet for rate review Dec. 18-19   https://t.co/HBjqgeK2hh   US November CPI was as expected: CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 3.3% y/y   Egg inflation is back again, prices up 8.2% month over month https://yahoo.trib.al/VbElVbI   BBG Chief US Economist Anna Wong: Solid Core CPI Fans Concern Disinflation Stalling Housing-rent inflation finally stepped down… but goods prices have lost disinflation momentum…     Core goods prices grew 0.3% (vs. 0.0% prior)… Most of the acceleration came from cars, with used-car prices rising 2.0% (vs. 2.7% prior0 and new cars up 0.6% (0.0% prior) – the fastest pace for new cars since October 2022… Core services inflation remained at 0.3%… Energy costs are likely to add to headline inflation in December…   @TrumpWarRoom: The latest CNN poll shows that Americans have overwhelming confidence in President Trump to solve America’s problems — and more confidence in America’s future than they’ve had in years!… https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1866894174345195521   After the November CPI Report was released, gold soared; bonds declined smartly; stocks were mixed.  The general market was soft, but Fangs soared.  At 10:15 ET, the NY Fang+ Index was +2.45%.  Near 10:45 ET, Broadcom was +4.67%, Google +4.14%, CrowdStrike +2.62%, Netflix +2.32%, Amazon +2.13%, and Meta +2.30%.   February Gold hit 2759.70, +41.30!  Physical gold soared to 2716.06, +22.00.  Energy commodities rallied moderately.  USHs (March is now the front month for debt) sank to 118 1/32 (-32/32) at 14:01 ET after a purportedly strong US 10-year note auction.   ESZs (should make the switch to March today) traded moderately higher but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they went vertical after the November CPI Report was released at 8:30 ET.  ESZs hit a daily high of 6090.25 (+44.00) at 10:08 ET.  Due to the heavy weighting of Fangs, ESZs soared while the general stock market declined modestly.  At 11:10 ET, the DJITA was -43 and change; the DJTA -10.48.   After a retreat to 6082.50 at 11:00 ET, the manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close took ESZs to a new high of 6096.75 at 11:43 ET.  The DJIA and DJTA then turned modestly higher for the session.   A Noon Balloon pushed ESZs to a new daily high of 6100.00 at 12:11 ET. After a modest respite, the afternoon rally took ESZs to yet another new daily high – 6102.50 at 13:02 ET.  ESZs then rolled over and went inert until they began a drop at 15:55 ET.  ESZs slid to 6089.00 at 16:00 ET.   @MebFaber: No matter how you measure it, foreign stocks trade at half the valuation of US stocks… https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1866159742189715794   After the NYSE close, the US Treasury announced a November Budget Deficit on $366.8B; -$256.6B was consensus; -$314.0B prior.   Positive aspects of previous session Fangs (NY Fang+ Index +3.13% at peak) and techs soared; Nasdaq traded above 20k for the 1st time.   Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA declined over 100 points each.  USZs sank as much as 1 point. Gold soared; precious metals rallied sharply.  (And the dollar was up a tad) Energy commodities rallied robustly. US stocks, particularly Fangs, continue to bubble up! Ambiguous aspects of previous session How high will the latest US stock bubble go?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6078.98 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6092.59; 6060.15   Mystery NJ drones are coming from Iranian mothership offshore, congressman claims: ‘These drones should be shot down’ (Pentagon denies it’s Iran.) https://trib.al/8gjtECg   Today – It was easy to forecast a rally after the November CPI Report was released.  Today is a much tougher call.  Two big negatives are overhanging the stock market: declining bonds and abysmally contracting breadth.  The only equity game now is pouring into Fangs are related trading sardines.   Eventually, the above negatives will generate a significant stock market decline.  The only question is when.  Traders will keep buying dips into Fed Day, which is December 18.  The known universe expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bps.  However, the odds are increasing, due to sticky inflation, that the Fed will pause and articulate that possibility in the FOMC Communique and PE Powell’s press conference.   ESZs are -8.00; NQZs are -41.50; and USHs are -1/32 at 20:25 ET.   Expected Economic Data: Nov PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.6% y/y, Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 3.2% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 220k (Week ended Dec 7), Continuing Claims 1.878m (Week ended Nov 30)   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5893; 100-day MA: 5716; 150-day MA: 5616; 200-day MA: 5495 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,325; 100-day MA: 42,079; 150-day MA: 41,169; 200-day MA: 40,559 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (6084.19 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5304.59 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5705.24 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6000.92 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6050.66 triggers a sell signal   FBI Director Christopher Wray announces resignation https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/christopher-wray-announces-resignation-fbi-director   @libsoftiktok: This is a pretty big scandal. West Point lied and said Hegseth hadn’t even applied when a journo reached out asking about Hegseth’s acceptance. Hegseth responded to the journo with evidence of his acceptance so they didn’t publish. They didn’t either publish that West Point lied.     Now West Point is saying it was a mistake and they didn’t properly search their records. How does such a high profile damning “mistake” happen? Why didn’t the “journalist” publish this scandal of West Point lying? (Important story!) Is someone at West Point purposely trying to sabotage Pete Hegseth? https://x.com/DefiantWorld/status/1866339558927036743   GOP Sen. Tom Cotton calls on West Point to investigate reports it lied to the press “Officials at the U.S. Military Academy should not be feeding lies to left-wing reporters about President Trump’s nominees,” Cotton posted on X. “West Point needs to thoroughly investigate this egregiously bad judgement and potential violation of the Privacy Act immediately.”… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/tom-cotton-calls-west-point-conduct-internal-investigation-reports-it-lied   Elton John blames Trump’s election win for his huge Broadway flop, ‘Tammy Faye’ https://trib.al/ZfUvul1   House approves $895B defense bill with military pay raise, ban on transgender care for minors https://trib.al/mH2hMz2   CBS NEWS: Trump invites China’s Xi Jinping to inauguration (“Fortune favors the bold.”)   Reports say Trump told Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet that he will cancel the $2 trillion F-35 program.  Elon Musk has relentlessly called the F-35 obsolete in a world of drones.

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING

SEE YOU ON FRIDAY