GOLD PRICE DOWN $6.85 TO $2646.40

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.12 TO $30.46

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2644.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.50

Bitcoin morning price:$106,870 UP 740 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $106,670 UP 540 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $1.30 TO $940.55

Palladium price; DOWN $7.10 TO $937.95

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3784.21 UP 6,82 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2080.94 DOWN 8.86 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,521.20 DOWN 2.08 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)

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END

EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,651.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/16/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/18/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

072 H GOLDMAN 88 563
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 6
190 H BMO CAPITAL 247
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 77
365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 42
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 46
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 566
661 C JP MORGAN 193 95
661 H JP MORGAN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 34 38
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 3
880 H CITIGROUP 1

---

TOTAL: 1,002 1,002

JPMorgan stopped 96/1002

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 1002 NOTICES FOR 100,200 OZ  3.117 TONNES

total notices so far: 23,161 contracts for 2,316,100 Oz (72.040 tonnes)

FOR  DEC

SILVER NOTICES: 9 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.045 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 8522 for 42.610 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.12 AT THE SLV

SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/.

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 458.508 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1918 CONTRACTS TO 147,750 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN OF $0,00 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS OF 1719 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON MONDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THE RAID WAS CALLED UPON AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS. THEY FAILED //MONDAY SO THEY TRIED AGAIN TUESDAY.

WE HAD A  FAIR 210 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 497 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1708 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR ZERO GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY’S COMEX SESSION. LAST MONDAY MORNING WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF .5000 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/ THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .66 MILLION OZ/NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS FOR THE MONTH: 1.16 MILLION OZ.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 497 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER FLAT (IT FELL BY $0.00) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1719 OI. CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A FAIR 210 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK , TOTALLING 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE 23 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.115 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.

// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 43.750 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 44.910 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI LOSS +// HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)MEGA  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 497 CONTRACTS)/ TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 569 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 DAYS, total 23,375 contracts:   OR 116.875 MILLION OZ  (1948 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  116.875 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 116.875 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE/ MAY EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ)

RESULT: WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1918  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR ZERO GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 210 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  40.435 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.115 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR EQUALS 44.910 MILLION OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 44.910 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 1708 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 497 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. FEW NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON MONDAY

/ SOME NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE ZERO LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT   (497) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, AND CERTAINLY TODAY.

WE HAD 9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.045 MILLION OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 6969 OI CONTRACTS  TO 471,098 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A SMALL SIZED 270 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (6969 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS OF $2.80 IN PRICE MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 57.284 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 689 CONTRACT QUE JUMP FOR 68,900 OZ ( 2.1430 TONNES). WE MUST NOW ADD 10.6406 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON 5 OCCASIONS IN THIS ACTIVE DECEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.

/NEW STANDING 85.555 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL  $2.80 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 2274 OI CONTRACTS (7.07 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 689 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (68,900 OZ)  ALONG WITH THE 10.6406 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH //NEW TOTAL TONNES OF DELIVERY: 85.555

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4695 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 471,368

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2274 CONTRACTS  WITH 6969 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4695 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2274 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1382 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4695 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 6969 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2274 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.117 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S HJUGE 68,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 5 PRIOR OCCASIONS OF 10.6406 TONNES//NEW STANDING 85.555 TONNES

//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 85.555 TONNES

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE  MONDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS AS WE HAD A $2.80 PRICE LOSS. WE HAD SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. HOWEVER, STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1382 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///689 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 68,900 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

DEC

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 83,465 CONTRACTS OF 8,346,500 OZ OR 259.61 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6955 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  259.61 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  259.61 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 7.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 259.61 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an ex for physical issuance for this month/maybe this time we will surpass March 2022 record of 409 tonnes for the month)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1918 CONTRACTS OI  TO 147,750 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 210 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 210 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1918   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 210 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1708 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS A HUGE 8.540 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.00 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.85 PTS OR 0.783%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 95.01 PTS OR 0.48%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 92.81 OR 0.24%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .76%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2880 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2880// Oil DOWN TO 69.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.04 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6969 CONTRACTS TO 471,098 WITH OUR SMALL  LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.80 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST SOME NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. WE HAD, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4695). THUS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2274 CONTRACTS WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED RAID AS THEY ABSORBED FULLY THE MONDAY ATTACK AND OFFERED A THANK YOU NOTE TO THE FED FOR THEIR WONDERFUL LARGESSE. THE LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON MONDAY.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS  202, AND 203 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD LIKE THESE PAST THREE DAYS OF RAIDS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING CONTINUING ON THIS WEEK.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4695 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  4695 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4695 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2274 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4695 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 6969 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG LOSS  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL  LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.80 MONDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1382 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE NOVEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE FIRST WEEK AND A HALF OF DECEMBER BUT THAT DRAMATICALLY CHANGED WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY WITH MONDAY’S COMEX RAID AND IT CONTINUED ON WITH TODAY’S TRADING AS WELL.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   DEC (85.555 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 74.4914 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 10.6406 TONNES EQUALS 85.555 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $2.80/)//AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING), AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING.

17 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THE MONTH NOW TOTALS 10.6406 TONNES. NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 6.233 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 68900 OZ OR 2.1430 TONNES, TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL OF 10.6406 TONNES. THUS TAKEN TOGETHER,, THE TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER IS:

74.4914 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) +

10.6406 TONNES (EX FOR RISK)

EQUALS: 85.555 TONNES

/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 85.555 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 85.555 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $2.80

WE HAD 85 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2274 CONTRACTS OR 227,400 (7.07 TONNES)

confirmed volume MONDAY 127,573 contracts: very weak //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A MUCH GREATER EXTENT.

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

DEC 17

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	nil           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	54,592.398 OZ brinks 1498 kilobars
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	144,429.292 OZ a)BRINKS 9709.602 oz 302kilobars b) HSBC 64,302.000 2000 kilobars c) Manfra 70,410.690 0z 2190 kilobars 4492 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	1002 notice(s) 100,200 OZ 3.117 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	788 contracts    78,800 OZ 2.4510 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	23,161 notices 2,316,100 oz 72.040 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 1

into dealer Brinks: 54,592.396 oz (1698 kilobars)

total dealer deposits: 54,592.398 oz

we have 3 customer deposit

i) Into BRINKS 9709.602 oz (302 kilobars)

ii) Into Manfra: 70,410.690 oz (2190 kilobars)

iii) Into HSBC 64,302.000 oz (2,000 kilobars)

total deposits 144,422.292 oz  4492 kilobars

strictly a paper gold entry.

withdrawals: 0

i

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: oz

adjustments: 2

a) out of JPMorgan: customer to dealer: 178,443.103 oz

b) out of Loomis 482.265 oz 15 kilobars dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.

For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1790 contracts having GAINED 120 contracts. We had A HUGE 569 contracts served on MONDAY, so we GAINED a HUGE 689 contracts or 68,900 oz (2.1430 TONNES) underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.

JANUARY GAINED 429 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 4072

FEBRUARY LOST 6288 CONTRACTS TO 350,681 .

We had 1002 contracts filed for today representing 100,200 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 193 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1002 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 96 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,161 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC(1790 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (1002 x 100 oz per contract( equals  2,394,900 OZ  OR 74.4914 TONNES. to which we add 10.6406 tonnes of exchange for risk WHICH EQUALS 85.555 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:  No of notices filed so far (23,161 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC  (1790 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1002 x 100 oz which equals  2,394,000 oz (74.4914 TONNES)  + 10.6406 tonnes of ex. for risk MONTH OF DEC //new total GOLD STANDING 85.555 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 85.555 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,891,343.356  oz 58.83 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  18,675,121.278 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,545,350.934/// 265.79 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,328,785.036 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,654,007 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 206.96 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/1,877,000 oz = 19.15% of entire inventory..

END

SILVER/COMEX

DEC 17. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE DEC 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	nil OZ .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,098,638.045 oz Brinks Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)	13 CONTRACT(S)    (65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	228 contracts  (1.140 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	8522 Contracts  (42.610 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  2 customer deposits

a) Into Brinks 599,163.300 oz

b) Into Manfra: 499,474.745 oz

total customer deposits 1098,637.045 oz

We had 0 withdrawals

total withdrawal nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.000million oz/310.025million  or 43.54%

adjustment 1 added into Brinks eligible inventory 1,201,542.150 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.737MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 310/025 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 237 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

13 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON MONDAY SO WE HAD A HUGE 23 CONTRACT OR 115,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 45 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2252

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 184

MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 1710 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 118,969

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 for 45,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 37,577 weak// t.a.s. enhanced

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8522x 5,000 oz = 42.610 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (237) and the number of notices served upon today (9)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month:  8522 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(237) minus number of notices served upon today (9)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 43.750 MILLION OZ. + to which we add 1.16 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR////new total 44.91 MILLION OIOZ

 New total standing: 44.910 million oz.

There are 76,737 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

DEC  17  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  16  WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

 DEC  13  WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES

DEC  12  WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

 DEC  11  WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES

 DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

 NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE

 NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES

NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES

NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES

NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES

NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES

NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES

NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES

NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES

NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE

NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES

NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 864.19 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ

DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ

DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ

DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ

DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ

NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ

NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ

NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ

NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ 

NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ

NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ

NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ

NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 458.508 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

Alasdair Macleod

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

Looks like Barrick picked the wrong jurisdiction to have a gold mine

(Reuters)

Barrick Gold threatens to suspend Mali operations over blocked exports

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-12-16 14:03 Section: Daily Dispatches

From Reuters
Monday, December 16, 2024

Barrick Gold will suspend operations in Mali if gold shipments continue to be blocked, the company said today as it struggles to reach agreement with authorities on a new mining code in the West African country.

Conditions at the miner’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex have “deteriorated significantly,” Barrick said, adding that employees have been imprisoned without cause and shipments of bullion have been blocked.

“If shipments remain suspended, Barrick will be compelled to suspend operations, further impacting the viability of this critical economic driver for Mali,” the company said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-gold-threatens-suspend-mali-operations-over-blocked-exports-2024-12-16/

end

Assad leaves the 26 tonnes of gold inside Syria

(Reuters)

Assad stole what he could but Reuters says he left Syria’s gold in central bank’s vault

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-12-16 16:08 Section: Daily Dispatches

Syria Retains 26 Tons of Gold Reserves After Assad’s Fall, Sources Tell Reuters

By Timour Azhari and Libby George
Reuters
Monday, December 16, 2024

DAMASCUS — The vault of Syria’s central bank holds nearly 26 tons of gold, the same amount it had at the start of the country’s bloody civil war in 2011, even after the chaotic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s despotic regime, four people familiar with the situation told Reuters.

But the country has only a small amount of foreign currency reserves in cash, the same people said.

Syria’s gold reserves stood at 25.8 tons in June 2011, according to the World Gold Council, which cites the Central Bank of Syria as its data source. That is worth $2.2 billion at current market prices, according to Reuters calculations.

But the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves amount to just around $200 million in cash, one of the sources told Reuters, while another said the U.S. dollar reserves were “in the hundreds of millions.”

While not all reserves would be held in cash, the drop is substantial compared with before the war. At the end of 2011 Syria’s central bank reported $14 billion in foreign reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund. In 201, the IMF had estimated Syria’s foreign reserves to stand at $18.5 billion. …

Syria’s new government, led by former rebels, is still taking stock of the country’s assets after Assad fled to Russia on Dec. 8. Looters briefly accessed parts of the central bank, taking Syrian pounds with them, but did not breach the main vault, Reuters reported.

Some of what was stolen was then returned by Syria’s new rulers, Syrian officials told Reuters.

The vault is bomb-proof and requires three keys, each held by a different person, and a combination code to be opened, said one of the sources.

The vault was inspected by members of Syria’s new administration last week, two sources said, days after the rebels took control of the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive that ended more than 50 years of rule by the Assad family. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/syria-retains-26-tons-gold-reserves-after-assads-fall-sources-2024-12-16/

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/

END

LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 203

youtube.com/watch?v=5hHeh2mnvXg&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY; cattle

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.85 PTS OR 0.783%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 95.01 PTS OR 0.48%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 92.81 OR 0.24%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .76%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2880 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2880// Oil DOWN TO 69.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.04 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.2880

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2880

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 24.45 PTS OR 0.73%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 95.01 PTS OR 0.48%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 92.81 PTS OR 0.24%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  106.67 EURO FALLS TO 1.0492 DOWN 25 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISWS TO. +1.075 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 153.88…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2460 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.419 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.943

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.089

3j Gold at $2644.50/Silver at: 30.31  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 85/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 102.75

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and  73 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.88  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.075% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8964 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9410  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.436 UP 4 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.632 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.282 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.99…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5695 UP 12 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.214 UP 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.992 UP 2 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Drop As Global Selloff Reaches The US

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 08:26 AM

There is only so much the US can “exceptionally” decouple from the rest of the world, and on Tuesday US futures finally succumbed to the persistent selling in markets around the world, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision for 2024 and its monetary policy forecasts. As of 8:00am, S&P futures dropped 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futs eased back 0.2% after the relentless rally in tech stocks pushed the gauge to a fresh all-time high on Monday as AAPL/GOOGL/AMZN/TSLA/AVGO all reached new ATHs. TSLA (+3% pre-mkt) on an u/g away while NVDA (-1.5% pre mkt) continues to be under pressure. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% as weaker crude prices weighed on oil-related stocks (FTSE -70bps/DAX +15bps/CAC +30bps). A key Asian gauge dropped 0.5% after erasing gains as concerns over China’s economy persist (Shanghai -73bps/Hang Seng -48bps/Nikkei -24bps). US rates rose with 10Y TSY yields rising +4bps @ 4.43%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index adds 0.1%. The Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, losing 0.5%. The yen outperforms with a 0.2% gain. Crude oil extended its drop as WTI dropped 0.8% to $70.15. Meanwhile, Bitcoin adds another +90bps to $107,040 as global equities chop around ahead of a slew of central bank rate decisions the next few days (FOMC tomorrow). There is a busy macro calendar today with retail sales, industrial/mfg production, business inventories and the NAHB housing index all on deck.

In premarket trading, Pfizer rose 2% after the company forecast 2025 sales and earnings in line with analysts’ projections, a step toward fending off an activist investor’s claims that the drugmaker is being mismanaged. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Mitek (MITK) rallies 15% after the identity verification software company reported fourth quarter revenue and earnings that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Pacs Group (PACS) slips 3% as JPMorgan issued a downgrade after nursing home operator said it received investigative demands over its reimbursement and referral practices.
• Rockwell Medical (RMTI) climbs 14% after the manufacturer of hemodialysis products entered into a supply pact with a provider of dialysis products and services.
• Shoals Technologies (SHLS) climbs 8% as Morgan Stanley upgraded the renewable energy equipment company to overweight citing increased confidence in the earnings outlook heading into 2025.
• Tesla shares rise as much as 3.4% in premarket trading on Tuesday as Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral citing an improved outlook under the new administration.
• Shares in electric-vehicle and charging station companies may be active on Tuesday after Reuters reported that Donald Trump’s transition team plans changes that would redirect funding from EV and charging stations markers to national-defense priorities.

As equity markets head into the final weeks of 2024, US stocks have significantly outperformed their peers for the year as optimism about artificial intelligence and falling rates fuel investor confidence. Traders are now focusing on Wednesday’s Fed announcement, with Chair Jerome Powell widely expected to deliver a quarter-point of easing.

What happens in the following months remains less clear. While the US economy is resilient, the prospect of inflationary import tariffs threatened by the incoming administration of Donald Trump may give Fed officials pause about the pace of further moves. Money markets are seeing an 80% chance of three cuts next year, compared to the small probability of a fourth reduction seen at the start of the month. “There is also the Fed, which stirs some uncertainty,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “My scenario is for a hawkish cut with a much more cautious narrative.”

Bank of America strategists cautioned that fund managers have been reducing cash holdings to a record low and pouring money into US stocks, triggering a metric that could be a signal to sell global equities. Cash as a percentage of total assets under management fell below 4%, a move that in the past has been followed by stock market losses.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell for a fourth consecutive session, as political upheaval in the region weighs on sentiment, with traders also bracing for Eurozone inflation data and a US rate decision due tomorrow. Technology and automakers are among gainers while energy and telecom sectors lead declines. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Airbus shares rise as much as 1.9% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the planemaker to buy from hold, saying it is better positioned for 2025 and is trading at a relatively affordable valuation.
• Jungheinrich gains as much as 4.9% after Citi upgrades the intralogistics solutions provider to buy from neutral, saying the stock is too cheap to ignore after prolonged underperformance.
• Goodwin shares rise as much as 18% after the UK mechanical and refractory engineering company reports what Shore Capital describes as “excellent” interim results.
• Thyssenkrupp Nucera shares gain as much as 9.3% after full-year earnings from the German green hydrogen technology firm revealed encouraging developments in the pipeline and funding potential, according to Citi.
• Hollywood Bowl shares drop as much as 11%, their worst day in over four years, after the bowling center operator reported a slide in pretax profit as well as flagging an impact of £1.2 million when UK National Insurance changes are implemented next year.
• Bunzl drops as much as 5.7% after the year-end trading update reports revenue that fell below consensus as Jefferies analyst says the update flags “continued top-line weakness.”
• Capita drops as much as 11% after the outsourcing specialist issued a trading update that showed an 8% adjusted-revenue decline and flagged a further slide in revenue growth next year.
• Chemring shares fall as much as 11% as the British defense firm decided not to renew its share buyback program and said its margin has fallen due to operational challenges.
• JDE Peet’s falls as much as 5% to hit a record low, after Goldman Sachs re-initiated coverage of the Dutch coffee and tea company with a sell rating, noting that a sharp uptick in coffee prices could hit sales, potentially putting at risk its presence in equity indexes.
• UCB shares slip as much as 3.6% after a proof-of-concept study for its experimental drug minzasolmin developed in partnership with Novartis for Parkinson’s disease didn’t meet primary and secondary clinical endpoints.

Earlier in the session, HK/China closed lower despite a midday spike following a Reuters headline that placed China’s 2025 GDP growth and fiscal deficit targets at the upper bound of investor expectations. Small caps caught the most weakness today, suggesting that retail investors are taking a breather after being better buyers over the past few sessions. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics 00597230 KS caught selling after GIR cut its price targets, while ASIC names in Taiwan were well bid after Broadcom AVGO US rallied again overnight.

• Australia: S&P/ASX 200 +0.78%, snapping a five-day losing streak. The index took cues from Wall Street, where Tech shares delivered strong performance, bolstering sentiment. Investors are bracing for an expected interest rate cut from the US Fed Reserve later this week, with much of the focus shifting to the Fed’s outlook for 2025. Notable performers were Commonwealth Bank CBA AU +1.6%, NA Bank NAB +1.5%.
• Taiwan: TAIEX -0.09%. Market opened higher but gradually lost steam over the day. TSMC 2330 TT retreated 0.9% and is just 3 ticks short of another A-T-H. United Microelectronics Corp UMC + 2.7% after the biggest morning headlines were focused on their reported securing advanced packaging orders from Qualcomm. The ASIC theme was also very strong again, as Broadcom gained another 11% overnight with the local ASIC names benefiting again, including Alchip limit up, GUC 3443 TT +8.8%, and Faraday 3035 TT +5.2%.
• Korea: KOSPI -1.29%. It opened weak and dipped lower further into the afternoon on accelerated foreign outflows with the bulk of the selling coming from program trades which indicated passive, systematic driven selling while locals (institutios, retail) were on the receiving end of the supply. Tech was an underperformer today whereas within semis – Samsung and Hynix saw divergence again while the EV names were notably weaker following potential tariff headwinds.
• Japan: Nikkei 225 -0.23%. Market opened with risk on mode led by momentum trades. Investors preferred popular themes like defense names, AI related names. Investors shifted their positions from cyclicals to defensives, from high vol names to low vol names, value names to growth names. Shares of Advantest 6857 JP tumbled 9.1% as the unveiling of its latest testing solutions for advanced applications. Meanwhile, SoftBank Group 9984 JP +4.3% after CEO Masayoshi Son announced plans to invest $100 bn in the US.
• China: SHSZ300 +0.26% but A-shares in other indices took another leg lower weighed weighed by small and micro cap names. Headlines from Reuters that China GDP growth target set at 5% for next year, and budgeted fiscal deficit 4% hit the tape at noon. Growth target is in line (and deemed aggressive by many; GSe: 4.5%), and fiscal target to the upper bound of expectation. The news spurred a quick spike in the PM session, but tapered soon.
• Hong Kong: HSI -0.22%. Markets saw a sharp spike in PM inline with onshore, but soon faded marking the 3rd straight session of losses as most sectors retreated – particularly property, consumers, and tech. Sluggish activity data for Nov in China continued to weigh on sentiment, with retail sales growth unexpectedly slowing while industrial output rose at a relatively similar pace to October. Notable decliners include Techtronic Inds. 669 HK -2.4%, JD Logistics 2618 HK -1.58%, Wuxi Biologics 2269 HK -2.66%.

In FX, Bloomberg’s dollar gauge was little changed. An index of Asian currencies fell to the lowest in more than two years amid pessimism over China’s economic outlook and expectations that Trump policies will drive gains in the greenback. The yen snapped a six-day losing streak after weakening beyond the 154 level versus the dollar overnight. The yen’s rapid decline in the past week had strategists warning that further weakness may trigger verbal intervention from authorities and add pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates. Traders are pricing in a less than 20% chance of a rate hike in December, according to swaps market pricing. The pound erased a small loss while gilt yields rose as traders scaled back bets on Bank of England rate cuts after UK wage growth accelerated for the first time in more than year. The implied chance of three quarter-point cuts in 2025 fell to around 55%, down from 90% before the report. The yuan was little changed in both onshore and overseas trading, as markets shrugged off news that Chinese leaders were planning to set an annual growth goal of about 5% for next year and raise the budget deficit.

In rates, yields on US Treasuries advanced across the curve, with the US 10-year yield rising 3bps to 4.432%, cheapest since Nov. 21. UK government bonds fall as traders pare bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England after UK wage growth accelerated for the first time in more than a year. UK 10-year yields rise 6 bps to 4.50% although the pound has given back its earlier advance versus the dollar. OIS swaps price in about 60bps of easing through December 2025 vs around 75bp at Monday’s close. The US Treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds in a reopening at 1pm New York time; WI yield near 4.72% is ~4bp cheaper than November’s new-issue sale, which tailed by 1.5bp.

The 10Y yield may climb to 6% as US fiscal woes worsen and Trump’s policies help keep inflation elevated, according to T. Rowe Price. “Is a 6% 10‑year Treasury yield possible? Why not? But we can consider that when we move through 5%,” Arif Husain, chief investment officer of fixed-income, wrote in a report. “The transition period in US politics is an opportunity to position for increasing longer‑term Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve.”

In commodities, oil prices dropped with WTI falling 1% to $70 a barrel. Spot gold drops $11 to around $2,641/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes November retail sales and December New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), November industrial production (9:15am), and October business inventories and December NAHB housing market index (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 6,062.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 513.83
• MXAP down 0.5% to 183.86
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 579.67
• Nikkei down 0.2% to 39,364.68
• Topix down 0.4% to 2,728.20
• Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,700.48
• Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,361.49
• Sensex down 1.2% to 80,747.70
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 8,314.00
• Kospi down 1.3% to 2,456.81
• German 10Y yield down 2 bps at 2.23%
• Euro down 0.3% to $1.0482
• Brent Futures down 0.6% to $73.47/bbl
• Brent Futures down 0.6% to $73.47/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,641.97
• US Dollar Index up 0.18% to 107.05

Top Overnight News

• China suffered the biggest outflow on record from its financial markets last month as the prospect of higher US tariffs posed more risks for the world’s second-largest economy. Domestic banks wired a net $45.7 billion of funds overseas on behalf of their clients for securities investment. BBG
• China will keep its growth target of about 5% next year and agreed to increase its fiscal deficit target to 4% of GDP in 2025, up 1% from 2024’s 3% goal and consistent with the recent pledge to adopt a more proactive fiscal policy. RTRS
• BABA (Alibaba) to book a $1B loss on the sale of its department-store chain Intime. WSJ
• Ukraine said it killed a senior Russian general in a Moscow bombing after a device planted in a scooter exploded early Tuesday, a rare targeted assassination of a high-profile military official in the capital. Ukraine accuses the general of committing chemical weapons crimes. WSJ
• The White House reiterated its position that it’s up to Volodymyr Zelenskiy to choose the timing and terms of talks with Russia, after Trump said Kyiv must make a deal to end the war. BBG
• Senior U.S. officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds
• US retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% in November, compared with 0.4% the prior month, as companies lured bargain-hunters with discounts and tariff-wary shoppers pulled forward big-ticket purchases. BBG
• Fund managers have been reducing cash holdings to a record low and pouring money into US stocks. Cash as a percentage of total AUM fell below 4%, a move that in the past has been followed by losses. BBG
• Ten-year Treasury yields may climb to 6% for the first time since 2000 on Donald Trump’s inflationary policies. The benchmark may reach 5% in the first quarter. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after the region initially showed a positive bias, taking cues from Wall Street, and in the absence of macro newsflow with looming risk events. ASX 200 firmed with banks underpinning the index, with Westpac among the gainers while its CFO announced plans to retire. Nikkei 225 trimmed earlier upside as traders were cautious ahead of the BoJ, with the decision contingent on the FOMC’s announcement hours beforehand. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded within narrow parameters in uneventful trade amid quiet newsflow, with participants remaining non-committal ahead of major risk events.

Top Asian News

• China is to maintain a growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, according to Reuters sources. China is to target a budget deficit of 4% in 2025 (vs 3% initially). More stimulus will be funded through issuing off-budget special bonds, sources added.
• New Zealand sees 2024/25 operating balance before gains, losses at NZD -17.32 bln (budget NZD -13.37 bln), according to Reuters.
• New Zealand Debt Management Office says 2024/25 gross bond issuance increases to NZD 40 bln from NZD 38 bln in May, according to Reuters.
• Alibaba Group (9988 HK/ BABA) sells Intime; Expected gross proceeds to Alibaba from Intime sale is approximately RMB 7.4bln; Alibaba expects to record losses of approximately RMB 9.3bln as a result of the sale of Intime.
• PBoC injected CNY 355.4 bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.50%, according to Reuters.
• South Korean acting President Han says South Korea is to implement the budget on Jan 1st; South Korea to allocate budget promptly for economic revitalisation, according to Reuters.
• Magnitude 7.4 quake has struck Port-Vila in the Vanuatu region, according to USGS.

European bourses began the session entirely in the red and have mostly resided in negative territory throughout the European morning, but have attempted to edge a little higher in recent trade, with some indices managing to climb incrementally into the green. German Ifo data confirmed the dire situation in the region, whilst ZEW surprised to the upside; metrics which sparked little price action. European sectors are almost entirely in the red, given the slip in risk sentiment in today’s session thus far. Tech is marginally in positive territory, alongside Consumer Products and Services. Energy is the clear underperformer joined by Basic Resources, attributed to the losses seen in underlying commodity prices today. US equity futures are modestly in negative territory, in-fitting with the losses seen in Europe and the general risk tone; a slight turn in fortunes in comparison to the gains seen in the prior session.

Top European News

• French Central Bank Forecasts: 2024 Growth seen at 1.1% (unchanged), 2025 seen at 0.9% (prev. 1.2% in Sept.); 2026 at 1.3% (prev. 1.5%), 2027% at 1.3%. HICP inflation 1.6% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
• ECB’s Rehn says data to decide speed and scale of rate cuts; scale and speed of rate cuts will be determined in each meeting on the basis of incoming data and comprehensive analysis; Euro area inflation starting to stabilise at ECB’s 2% target. Monetary policy will cease to be restrictive in the later winter, early spring period (i.e. between January and June 2025)
• ECB’s Kazimir says inflation risks are well balanced, via Bloomberg. Will discuss the neutral rate when they approach 2.5%.
• ECB keeps capital requirements broadly steady for 2025, reflecting strong bank performance amid heightened geopolitical risks

FX

• DXY is on a firmer footing and topped 107.00 in early European trade, to currently trade at the top-end of a 107.05-106.69 range. Should the upside continue, the Dollar index could see a potential test of the prior day’s best at 107.16, and then 107.18 from Friday 13th December. The North American day sees the release of US retail sales, which are expected to rise +0.5% M/M in November.
• EUR is on the backfoot vs the Dollar, after posting modest gains in the prior session. German Ifo figures were mixed, with the Business Climate and Expectations components printed below expectations whilst the Current conditions improved a touch. Overall the figures only further confirmed the dire situation in the region. German ZEW was a little more optimistic, which helped to lift the Single-Currency a touch, but ultimately proved fleeting. Currently trading near session troughs at 1.0480.
• GBP is on a firmer footing and one of the better G10 performers today, as traders trim their bets for more cuts in the coming year following today’s hot jobs reports, with particular focus in the wages components which surpassed the top end analyst expectations. Cable briefly topped 1.27 before then paring the upside to a current 1.2687.
• The JPY is the best G10 performer thus far, in contrast to the losses seen in the prior day. USD/JPY currently trades in a 153.76-154.34 range, and just within the confines made on Monday.
• Antipodeans are on the backfoot and in-fact the worst G10 performers, given the subdued risk sentiment and losses in commodity prices.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1891 vs exp. 7.2842 (prev. 7.1882)
• RBI likely sold USD via state-run banks at 84.92-84.93, according to Reuters citing traders.
• Barclays Month- & Quarter-end Rebalancing: USD neutral.

Fixed Income

• USTs are in the red but only modestly so, moving in tandem with the morning’s data release out of the UK and Germany but in relatively thin 109-21 to 109-29+ parameters. US Retail Sales precedes a 20yr auction later today.
• Bunds came under pressure on the morning’s UK wage data (see Gilts for details) with leads bearish in-fitting with contained/softer UST action overnight. However, this proved relatively short-lived as Bunds were sent back into positive territory to a 134.94 session high on Germany’s 13% Y/Y lower 2025 issuance intentions, and the mixed but ultimately softer German Ifo release. On the data front, Ifo figures were poor whilst the ZEW was a little more optimistic on the economy and helped to spark some short-lived upside.
• Gilts are underperforming after the day’s jobs data, with the wages components have taken centre stage with the hot metrics essentially removing any chance of easing on Thursday with just 1bps implied (c. 4bps pre-release. Though, we await CPI on Wednesday. A release which caused Gilts to gap lower by 47 ticks at the open and then slip further to an initial 93.27 trough. The 2029 outing saw a softer cover than the prior, which led Gilts down to a new 93.23 trough.
• German Finance Agency intends to issue around EUR 380bln via Federal debt sales in 2025, -13% Y/Y. Plus two syndications.
• Italy PM calls for discussions on common EU bonds to fund defence spending.
• UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: 2.9x (prev. 3.05x), avg yield 4.348% (prev. 4.148%) & tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.8bps)

Commodities

• WTI and Brent came under pressure early-doors despite a lack of fresh fundamental drivers at the time. Pressure which took the benchmarks to fresh lows for the week and back towards the troughs from Friday; though, well within last week’s circa. USD 5/bbl parameters. Brent’Feb 25 currently sits near session lows at USD 73.35/bbl.
• Gold is softer, pressured by continued USD advances which has taken the DXY above the 107.00 mark. Yellow metal has been waning gradually in European hours, as the region’s risk tone meanders higher. Thus far, down to a USD 2641/oz base.
• Base metals spent APAC trade in very thin ranges but have since slipped to the lower-end of those and modestly into the red. Pressure which comes despite the modest inch higher in the European risk tone.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “The IDF has approved plans for major strikes in Yemen, and is prepared to act pending government approval”, via Open Source Intel citing N12 News
• US military said it conducted an airstrike against Houthis in Yemen, according to Reuters.
• Syria’s rebel leader said factions would be ‘disbanded’ and fighters would join the army, according to AFP.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia may increase the frequency of missile testing as external threats grow, according to Russian state news agencies citing the commander of Russian strategic missile forces. Russia may also increase the number of nuclear warheads on deployed carriers in response to similar actions by the US. Mobile-based missile systems, the commander noted, will be decisive means of inflicting devastating enemy damage in a potential retaliatory nuclear attack. Russia’s strategic missile forces plan maximum-range launches as part of state testing of prospective new systems. Additionally, Russia and the US give each other at least a day’s warning about planned launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• Russian lieutenant general Kirillov and his associate killed in explosion in Moscow, according to RT sources; Kirillov is listed as Chief of Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence of Russian Armed Forces.
• Senior US officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
  • Nov. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • Nov. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
• 08:30: Dec. New York Fed Services Business, prior -0.5
• 09:15: Nov. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.3%
  • Nov. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.5%, prior -0.5%
  • Nov. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.3%, prior 77.1%
• 10:00: Oct. Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 10:00: Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 47, prior 46

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In what should be a quiet week given the time of year there is still a lot going on in markets as we build up to the FOMC that concludes tomorrow. The S&P 500 (+0.38%) ended the session just beneath its all-time high from earlier in the month but with the number of decliners (321) in the index exceeding advancers (182) for a remarkable 11th session in a row. On my calculations this is the longest such run for 40 years. Elsewhere French assets under-performed a touch after the Moody’s downgrade on Friday night, whilst the Canadian Dollar hit its weakest intraday level in four-and-a-half years after the country’s finance minister resigned heaping pressure on Trudeau as the political instability in several G7 countries seen over the last few months continues.

Talking of which, the other main story of the day centred around Germany as the government lost a no-confidence vote as expected that paves the way for an early election to happen. By way of background, Chancellor Scholz had led a three-party coalition of his own SPD, the Greens and the FDP. But the coalition collapsed after Scholz fired the FDP leader and finance minister Christian Lindner because of a budget dispute. Under the German system, the Chancellor can’t simply call an early election at the time of their own choosing. However, they can ask the President for an early election if they lose a vote of no confidence, so this one was tabled deliberately by the government in order to bring forward the election date. The election is expected to take place in February, and the conservative CDU/CSU bloc currently have a clear lead in opinion polls. Today they will release their manifesto with the leaks suggesting no plans to reform the debt brake. However part of this is likely to help ensure they have a stronger negotiating position in coalition talks. See Robin Winkler’s latest piece yesterday looking at DB’s latest thoughts.

In the meantime, there were also big developments in Canadian politics yesterday, as Finance Minister and Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland resigned from the cabinet. In her resignation letter, she said that the threat of US tariffs meant Canada should be “keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war.” The move came just hours before Freeland was set to deliver an economic update, and Canadian assets struggled following the resignation, with equities around half a percent lower and the Canadian Dollar weakening. Canada’s next election is due by October 2025, but the governing Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau are lagging well behind the opposition Conservatives, and CBC News’ poll tracker points to a high chance of a Conservative majority based on current polls. The question after this is whether Trudeau can ride this out until next October or will have to go to the polls earlier.

Moving on to France, there was an underperformance in the country’s markets following the credit rating downgrade from Moody’s on Friday. For instance, the CAC 40 (-0.71%) was the worst performer among the big European indices, well beneath the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (-0.12%). In addition, the Franco-German 10yr spread widened by +1.4bps to 79.9bps, which is its 5th consecutive move wider. Remember the downgrade only bring Moody’s into line with S&P and Fitch so it aligns the main agencies rather than creates an incremental move away from the pack. Otherwise, there wasn’t much in the way of concrete political news, but the new PM François Bayrou met with Marine Le Pen, who said after the meeting that “It’s perhaps a little early to say if we were heard, but we were listened to.”

Elsewhere in Europe, there was a bit more optimism yesterday as the December flash PMIs were slightly better than expected. Now admittedly, the Euro Area composite PMI was still in contractionary territory at 49.5, so it was hardly a stellar performance. But that was stronger than the 48.2 print expected, and the services PMI was back in expansionary territory at 51.4 (vs. 49.5 expected). From a market perspective however, there wasn’t much to shift the dial for the ECB, who are still widely expected to keep cutting rates in 2025. And sovereign bonds were broadly steady yesterday, with 10yr bund yields (-1.0bps) coming down slightly to 2.24%.

The modest rally in European bonds also came as ECB President Lagarde followed through on some of the more dovish signals seen at last week’s press conference, saying that the ECB is looking to deliver an “appropriate” policy stance and that “If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further”. Meanwhile, Schnabel, one of more hawkish ECB voices, noted that “lowering policy rates gradually towards a neutral level is the most appropriate course of action”, so some implicit pushback against the possibility of the ECB having to move rates below neutral.

Over in the US, the theme of American exceptionalism continued as the flash PMIs were notably stronger than expected. Indeed, the composite PMI was up to 56.6, which is its highest since March 2022 when the Fed started to hike rates again. In turn, that contributed to a selloff among US Treasuries, which pared back their initial gains to leave the 10yr yield little changed (+0.1bps) at 4.40%. At the same time, there was a notable outperformance from US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.38%) ending the session just -0.27% beneath its all-time high. As mentioned at the top the breadth was again a negative as more stocks fell than rose for an eleventh day with the equal weight index down -0.36%. So the advance was driven by the Magnificent 7 (+2.07%), which hit another all-time high. Health care stocks (-1.24%) were among the underperformers as Trump commented that he plans to “knock out the middleman” in the sector during a wide-ranging press Q&A.

In Asia the main headline just coming through is Reuters reporting that China is set to announce a 5% growth target for 2025 along with a 4% budget deficit. There has been talk of such an expanded deficit number in the last couple of weeks but if that is the growth target the market will likely conclude that the authorities will have to be serious about stimulus. After the story’s release Chinese equities have rallied several tenths of a percent with the Shanghai Comp now “only” -0.16% lower on the day. The Hang Seng is +0.2% higher having spent most of the session notably lower. The Nikkei (+0.20%) and the ASX (+0.78%) are higher but the KOSPI (-1.0%) is the biggest underperformer as the country continues to digest the weekend impeachment news. US futures are flat.

Bitcoin (+0.41%) is advancing for the third straight session, hitting a record high of $106,511 as the incoming Trump administration is seen as being far more friendly towards cryptocurrencies.

To the day ahead now, and data releases in the US include retail sales and industrial production for November, in Canada there’s the November CPI print, in Germany there’s the Ifo’s business climate indicator and the ZEW survey for December, and in the UK we’ll get unemployment for October. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Kazimir and Rehn.

2B) EUROPEAN REPORT

GBP benefits from hot UK wages data, DXY bid amid a tepid risk tone ahead of US Retail Sales – Newsquawk US Market Open

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 06:05 AM

• European bourses are mostly in the red, but sentiment has improved a touch since the cash open; US futures modestly lower.
• DXY back above 107.00, GBP posted early gains after hot wages data.
• Gilts lag as UK wage data essentially removes any chance of a Dec. BoE cut ahead of CPI; USTs a little lower ahead of US Retail Sales.
• Commodities succumb to the tepid risk tone and ongoing USD strength.
• Looking ahead, US Retail Sales, Canadian Inflation, US Industrial Production, Japanese Trade Balance, NBH Policy Announcement, Supply from the US.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses began the session entirely in the red and have mostly resided in negative territory throughout the European morning, but have attempted to edge a little higher in recent trade, with some indices managing to climb incrementally into the green. German Ifo data confirmed the dire situation in the region, whilst ZEW surprised to the upside; metrics which sparked little price action.
• European sectors are almost entirely in the red, given the slip in risk sentiment in today’s session thus far. Tech is marginally in positive territory, alongside Consumer Products and Services. Energy is the clear underperformer joined by Basic Resources, attributed to the losses seen in underlying commodity prices today.
• US equity futures are modestly in negative territory, in-fitting with the losses seen in Europe and the general risk tone; a slight turn in fortunes in comparison to the gains seen in the prior session.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is on a firmer footing and topped 107.00 in early European trade, to currently trade at the top-end of a 107.05-106.69 range. Should the upside continue, the Dollar index could see a potential test of the prior day’s best at 107.16, and then 107.18 from Friday 13th December. The North American day sees the release of US retail sales, which are expected to rise +0.5% M/M in November.
• EUR is on the backfoot vs the Dollar, after posting modest gains in the prior session. German Ifo figures were mixed, with the Business Climate and Expectations components printed below expectations whilst the Current conditions improved a touch. Overall the figures only further confirmed the dire situation in the region. German ZEW was a little more optimistic, which helped to lift the Single-Currency a touch, but ultimately proved fleeting. Currently trading near session troughs at 1.0480.
• GBP is on a firmer footing and one of the better G10 performers today, as traders trim their bets for more cuts in the coming year following today’s hot jobs reports, with particular focus in the wages components which surpassed the top end analyst expectations. Cable briefly topped 1.27 before then paring the upside to a current 1.2687.
• The JPY is the best G10 performer thus far, in contrast to the losses seen in the prior day. USD/JPY currently trades in a 153.76-154.34 range, and just within the confines made on Monday.
• Antipodeans are on the backfoot and in-fact the worst G10 performers, given the subdued risk sentiment and losses in commodity prices.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1891 vs exp. 7.2842 (prev. 7.1882)
• RBI likely sold USD via state-run banks at 84.92-84.93, according to Reuters citing traders.
• Barclays Month- & Quarter-end Rebalancing: USD neutral.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are in the red but only modestly so, moving in tandem with the morning’s data release out of the UK and Germany but in relatively thin 109-21 to 109-29+ parameters. US Retail Sales precedes a 20yr auction later today.
• Bunds came under pressure on the morning’s UK wage data (see Gilts for details) with leads bearish in-fitting with contained/softer UST action overnight. However, this proved relatively short-lived as Bunds were sent back into positive territory to a 134.94 session high on Germany’s 13% Y/Y lower 2025 issuance intentions, and the mixed but ultimately softer German Ifo release. On the data front, Ifo figures were poor whilst the ZEW was a little more optimistic on the economy and helped to spark some short-lived upside.
• Gilts are underperforming after the day’s jobs data, with the wages components have taken centre stage with the hot metrics essentially removing any chance of easing on Thursday with just 1bps implied (c. 4bps pre-release. Though, we await CPI on Wednesday. A release which caused Gilts to gap lower by 47 ticks at the open and then slip further to an initial 93.27 trough. The 2029 outing saw a softer cover than the prior, which led Gilts down to a new 93.23 trough.
• German Finance Agency intends to issue around EUR 380bln via Federal debt sales in 2025, -13% Y/Y. Plus two syndications.
• Italy PM calls for discussions on common EU bonds to fund defence spending.
• UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: 2.9x (prev. 3.05x), avg yield 4.348% (prev. 4.148%) & tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.8bps)
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent came under pressure early-doors despite a lack of fresh fundamental drivers at the time. Pressure which took the benchmarks to fresh lows for the week and back towards the troughs from Friday; though, well within last week’s circa. USD 5/bbl parameters. Brent’Feb 25 currently sits near session lows at USD 73.35/bbl.
• Gold is softer, pressured by continued USD advances which has taken the DXY above the 107.00 mark. Yellow metal has been waning gradually in European hours, as the region’s risk tone meanders higher. Thus far, down to a USD 2641/oz base.
• Base metals spent APAC trade in very thin ranges but have since slipped to the lower-end of those and modestly into the red. Pressure which comes despite the modest inch higher in the European risk tone.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Oct) 5.2% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.3%, Rev. 4.4%); Ex-Bonus) (Oct) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.8%, Rev. 4.9%)
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%); Employment Change (Oct) 173k vs. Exp. 2k (Prev. 219k)
• UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Nov) -35k (Prev. -5k, Rev. 24k)
• German Ifo Business Climate New (Dec) 84.7 vs. Exp. 85.6 (Prev. 85.7); Ifo Current Conditions New (Dec) 85.1 vs. Exp. 84.0 (Prev. 84.3); Ifo Expectations New (Dec) 84.4 vs. Exp. 87.5 (Prev. 87.2)
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Dec) -93.1 vs. Exp. -93.0 (Prev. -91.4); ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec) 15.7 vs. Exp. 6.5 (Prev. 7.4); ZEW says economic outlook is improving; experts still expect further interest rate cuts for the coming year; experts assess the recent rise in inflation as a temporary phenomenon
• EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Dec) 17 (Prev. 12.5)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• French Central Bank Forecasts: 2024 Growth seen at 1.1% (unchanged), 2025 seen at 0.9% (prev. 1.2% in Sept.); 2026 at 1.3% (prev. 1.5%), 2027% at 1.3%. HICP inflation 1.6% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
• ECB’s Rehn says data to decide speed and scale of rate cuts; scale and speed of rate cuts will be determined in each meeting on the basis of incoming data and comprehensive analysis; Euro area inflation starting to stabilise at ECB’s 2% target. Monetary policy will cease to be restrictive in the later winter, early spring period (i.e. between January and June 2025)
• ECB’s Kazimir says inflation risks are well balanced, via Bloomberg. Will discuss the neutral rate when they approach 2.5%.
• ECB keeps capital requirements broadly steady for 2025, reflecting strong bank performance amid heightened geopolitical risks

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• “The IDF has approved plans for major strikes in Yemen, and is prepared to act pending government approval”, via Open Source Intel citing N12 News
• US military said it conducted an airstrike against Houthis in Yemen, according to Reuters.
• Syria’s rebel leader said factions would be ‘disbanded’ and fighters would join the army, according to AFP.

OTHER

• Russia may increase the frequency of missile testing as external threats grow, according to Russian state news agencies citing the commander of Russian strategic missile forces. Russia may also increase the number of nuclear warheads on deployed carriers in response to similar actions by the US. Mobile-based missile systems, the commander noted, will be decisive means of inflicting devastating enemy damage in a potential retaliatory nuclear attack. Russia’s strategic missile forces plan maximum-range launches as part of state testing of prospective new systems. Additionally, Russia and the US give each other at least a day’s warning about planned launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• Russian lieutenant general Kirillov and his associate killed in explosion in Moscow, according to RT sources; Kirillov is listed as Chief of Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence of Russian Armed Forces.
• Senior US officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds, according to WSJ.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is firmer and holds around the USD 107k mark.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after the region initially showed a positive bias, taking cues from Wall Street, and in the absence of macro newsflow with looming risk events.
• ASX 200 firmed with banks underpinning the index, with Westpac among the gainers while its CFO announced plans to retire.
• Nikkei 225 trimmed earlier upside as traders were cautious ahead of the BoJ, with the decision contingent on the FOMC’s announcement hours beforehand.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded within narrow parameters in uneventful trade amid quiet newsflow, with participants remaining non-committal ahead of major risk events.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is to maintain a growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, according to Reuters sources. China is to target a budget deficit of 4% in 2025 (vs 3% initially). More stimulus will be funded through issuing off-budget special bonds, sources added.
• New Zealand sees 2024/25 operating balance before gains, losses at NZD -17.32 bln (budget NZD -13.37 bln), according to Reuters.
• New Zealand Debt Management Office says 2024/25 gross bond issuance increases to NZD 40 bln from NZD 38 bln in May, according to Reuters.
• Alibaba Group (9988 HK/ BABA) sells Intime; Expected gross proceeds to Alibaba from Intime sale is approximately RMB 7.4bln; Alibaba expects to record losses of approximately RMB 9.3bln as a result of the sale of Intime.
• PBoC injected CNY 355.4 bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.50%, according to Reuters.
• South Korean acting President Han says South Korea is to implement the budget on Jan 1st; South Korea to allocate budget promptly for economic revitalisation, according to Reuters.
• Magnitude 7.4 quake has struck Port-Vila in the Vanuatu region, according to USGS.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Nov) 58.6% (Prev. 59.2%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

APAC stocks mixed, DXY a little firmer ahead of US Retail Sales – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 01:44 AM

• APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after the region initially showed a positive bias, taking cues from Wall Street, and in the absence of macro newsflow with looming risk events.
• DXY fluctuated in a narrow range whilst USD/JPY was choppy on either side of 154.00 and Antipodeans were subdued.
• China is to maintain a growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, according to Reuters sources. China is to target a budget deficit of 4% in 2025 (vs 3% initially).
• European equity futures are indicative of a subdued open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed -0.5% on Monday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, German Ifo, German ZEW Survey, US Retail Sales, Canadian Inflation, US Industrial Production, Japanese Trade Balance, NBH Policy Announcement, ECB’s Elderson, Supply from the UK and the US.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were bid throughout the session with notable outperformance in the Nasdaq amid further upside in Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron (MU) supporting the move.
• Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Tech outperformed thanks to the upside in the heavyweights. On the flipside, Energy, Health Care and Materials underperformed.
• SPX +0.38% at 6,074, NDX +1.45% at 22,097, DJI -0.25% at 43,717, RUT +0.64% at 2,362.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US stopgap spending bill would temporarily fund the government through March 14th and avert a partial shutdown beginning Saturday, according to Reuters, citing a source familiar with negotiations.
• US President-elect Trump said they would keep the promise to pass historic tax cuts and noted the need to reduce the deficit, according to Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump says he met recently with Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY) heads, and is a big believer in the polio vaccine but does not like mandates for vaccines, according to Reuters.
• Canadian PM Trudeau reportedly considering his options as leader after Freeland quits cabinet, according to CTV News citing sources.
• Leader of opposition Canada New Democrats, when asked about a possible vote of no confidence in PM Trudeau, said all options were on the table, according to Reuters.
• BoC Governor Macklem said there were risks around its inflation outlook and that they were equally concerned with inflation coming in higher or lower than expected. He noted that elevated wage increases, combined with weak productivity, could boost inflation as businesses looked to pass on higher costs. Alternatively, the economy could continue to grow below its potential, which would pull inflation down. He also added that when using extraordinary tools to tackle a crisis, it was important to be clear about what they were trying to achieve with those tools and under what conditions they would no longer be needed.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after the region initially showed a positive bias, taking cues from Wall Street, and in the absence of macro newsflow with looming risk events.
• ASX 200 firmed with banks underpinning the index, with Westpac among the gainers while its CFO announced plans to retire.
• Nikkei 225 trimmed earlier upside as traders were cautious ahead of the BoJ, with the decision contingent on the FOMC’s announcement hours beforehand.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded within narrow parameters in uneventful trade amid quiet newsflow, with participants remaining non-committal ahead of major risk events.
• US equity futures were flat across the board, with the RTY initially holding a slightly more upside bias compared to peers following its December slide.
• European equity futures are indicative of a subdued open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed -0.5% on Monday.

FX

• DXY fluctuated within a narrow 106.69-89 range but printed incremental fresh highs towards the latter part of the session, with market participants awaiting the pivotal FOMC on Wednesday, the accompanying SEPs, and Chair Powell’s presser.
• EUR/USD held onto the 1.0500 status and rose above Monday’s 1.0524 high, but price action was minimal amid a lack of drivers.
• GBP/USD was similarly uneventful as traders looked ahead to UK jobs data on Tuesday before Wednesday’s CPI release and Thursday’s BoE, with the FOMC and BoJ decisions in between.
• USD/JPY saw choppy price action, with the pair seeing downside in conjunction with downticks in US yields. The pair hit a low of 153.81 before rising back to test 154.00 as the Tokyo lunch break started.
• Antipodeans were subdued as risk remained non-committal overnight ahead of risk events.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1891 vs exp. 7.2842 (prev. 7.1882)
• RBI likely sold USD via state-run banks at 84.92-84.93, according to Reuters citing traders.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures held a mild positive bias after yesterday’s weakness, but the modest upside later faded with futures flat as traders brace for the FOMC.
• Bund futures were uneventful, and trading in a tight range above 134.50 ahead of the German Ifo and ZEW.
• 10yr JGB futures traded sideways for most of the session before seeing two-way action following the JGB auction and then returning to earlier levels.
• Japan sold JPY 1tln 20yr JGBs; b/c 3.38x (prev. 3.52x), average yield 1.8790% (prev. 1.8980%).

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures saw minimal action as macro and complex-specific drivers remained light in the run-up to risk events.
• Spot gold was similarly uneventful around USD 2,650/oz, with the DXY also flat as traders kept their powder dry ahead of the Fed.
• 3M LME Copper futures resided in a very narrow USD 9,062.50-9,088.50/t amid the non-committal tone across all markets.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin held onto most of its recent gains after briefly testing levels close to USD 108,000 to the upside, while Ethereum traded north of USD 4,000.

OTHER NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is to maintain a growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, according to Reuters sources. China is to target a budget deficit of 4% in 2025 (vs 3% initially). More stimulus will be funded through issuing off-budget special bonds, sources added.
• New Zealand sees 2024/25 operating balance before gains, losses at NZD -17.32 bln (budget NZD -13.37 bln), according to Reuters.
• New Zealand Debt Management Office says 2024/25 gross bond issuance increases to NZD 40 bln from NZD 38 bln in May, according to Reuters.
• Alibaba Group (9988 HK/ BABA) sells Intime; Expected gross proceeds to Alibaba from Intime sale is approximately RMB 7.4bln; Alibaba expects to record losses of approximately RMB 9.3bln as a result of the sale of Intime.
• PBoC injected CNY 355.4 bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.50%, according to Reuters.
• South Korean acting President Han says South Korea is to implement the budget on Jan 1st; South Korea to allocate budget promptly for economic revitalisation, according to Reuters.
• Magnitude 7.4 quake has struck Port-Vila in the Vanuatu region, according to USGS.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Nov) 58.6% (Prev. 59.2%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US President-elect Trump said he had a very good talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu, according to Reuters. He added it would not be pleasant if Hamas hostages were not released before he took office.
• A senior Israeli official told Axios there were still gaps in the negotiations over the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal “but they are all bridgeable”, according to Axios.
• Proposed deal between Israel and Hamas calls for 60-day ceasefire, and for release of dozens of Israeli detainees in exchange for 700-1,000 Palestinian prisoners, via Sky News Arabia citing Israel Channel 14.
• US military said it conducted an airstrike against Houthis in Yemen, according to Reuters.
• Syria’s rebel leader said factions would be ‘disbanded’ and fighters would join the army, according to AFP.

US-CHINA

• US President-elect Trump says he is taking a look at TikTok and has a warm spot in his heart for TikTok, according to Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump met with TikTok CEO at Mar-a-Lago club today, according to CNN.
• US President Biden’s administration reportedly preparing a trade investigation into China’s production of older semiconductors, according to NYT.

OTHER

• Russia may increase the frequency of missile testing as external threats grow, according to Russian state news agencies citing the commander of Russian strategic missile forces. Russia may also increase the number of nuclear warheads on deployed carriers in response to similar actions by the US. Mobile-based missile systems, the commander noted, will be decisive means of inflicting devastating enemy damage in a potential retaliatory nuclear attack. Russia’s strategic missile forces plan maximum-range launches as part of state testing of prospective new systems. Additionally, Russia and the US give each other at least a day’s warning about planned launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• Russian lieutenant general Kirillov and his associate killed in explosion in Moscow, according to RT sources; Kirillov is listed as Chief of Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence of Russian Armed Forces.
• Senior US officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds, according to WSJ.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB’s Schnabel said they should proceed with caution and remain data-dependent, noting that price stability was within reach and that lowering policy rates gradually towards a neutral level was the most appropriate course of action according to Reuters. She added that once price stability had been restored, central banks could afford to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from the target, in both directions. She also said that in the absence of such shocks, policy should be careful not to overreact. She noted that monetary policy should focus on responding forcefully to shocks that had the capacity to destabilise inflation expectations. She said that central banks could tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from the target, in both directions. She mentioned that monetary policy could not resolve structural issues that durably weighed on price pressures. She added that over the next twelve months, an economic expansion was still much more probable than a recession and that gradual removal of policy restrictions remained appropriate.
• ECB’s Escriva said he could not anticipate the decision because it would go against what they do, when asked if he would be against a 50bps cut in January, via Econostream. He added that forecasting where the neutral rate will be is difficult and that he could not say in advance what the neutral rate would be.
• French Central Bank Forecasts: 2024 Growth seen at 1.1% (unchanged), 2025 seen at 0.9% (prev. 1.2% in Sept.); 2026 at 1.3% (prev. 1.5%), 2027% at 1.3%. HICP inflation 1.6% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

LATAM

• Brazil’s Lower House did not set a date for voting on the fiscal package, according to Estadao sources.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

3C JAPAN

end

3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/

CHINA

China is now dominating global auto production

(zerohedge)

China Is Now 39% Of Global Auto Production; Dominating Europe, Japan, U.S.

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 06:55 AM

China has transformed itself from a minor player in the auto industry two decades ago to the world leader in car production and exports, particularly in electric vehicles (EVs), the New York Times reported late last month.

But the trend of China’s impact on the global auto market has been best characterized by this chart, published over the weekend, showing how Chinese car production has gone from 1% to 39% of global production in 20 years.

The rapid ascent was fueled by significant government investment, advancements in automation, and the growth of its domestic market, which is now the largest globally.

The NYT piece said that as domestic sales have slowed due to economic headwinds, China has increasingly turned to international markets to sell its cars, especially EVs.

Chinese brands like BYD have gained global recognition for offering advanced electric cars at highly competitive prices, exporting more EVs than any other country. Major markets include Europe, where compact models are popular, and Southeast Asia, where affordability drives demand.

We wrote back in November that China was even dethroning many of its long-rivaled Japanese competitors. Between 2019 and 2024, Japanese automakers experienced the steepest market share declines in China, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of sales and registration data.

Japanese automakers aren’t just losing ground across Asian countries, with all six tracked by Bloomberg experiencing declines in China – but also globally as shown in the above chart.

Even Toyota, the global leader in car volume, has seen its sales stagnate. In Southeast Asia, a traditional stronghold for Japanese brands, market share has dropped sharply.

In Thailand and Singapore, Japanese carmakers now control just 35% of the market, down from over 50% in 2019, while streets once dominated by Nissan and Mazda are increasingly filled with Chinese brands.

China’s leadership in EVs is the result of over a decade of focused government support, including subsidies, tax breaks, low-interest loans, and heavy investment in battery technology.

Since 2009, over $230 billion has been funneled into the EV and battery sectors, the New York Times reported.

Chinese automakers also maintain a significant cost advantage over their global competitors. Cars made by Chinese companies cost roughly 30% less to assemble, largely due to control over the battery supply chain, lower labor costs, and more efficient production processes.

However, China’s dominance has raised concerns globally. Countries like the U.S. and the European Union have imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, citing unfair subsidies and the potential threat to local industries. Despite these trade barriers, Chinese vehicles remain competitive because of their lower prices and comparable quality.

China’s heavy investment and technological edge position it to continue dominating the global auto market. Even with intensifying international pushback, its production capacity, cost advantages, and leadership in EV technology suggest that its influence will persist for years to come.

Recall just days ago we wrote that GM was taking a more than $5 billion charge and closing plants to address its declining business in Ch

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

They are finding out real fast about the migrants living in Germany. CDU states that they must go back

(ReMix)

GERMANY

“Two-Thirds Don’t Work” – CDU’s Merz Says “Many Of Them [Syrians Living In Germany] Must Go Back”

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Via Remix News,

Germany’s Christian Democrat Union (CDU) candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz says that Germany cannot accept more Syrians from Syria and that those Syrians who are not integrated should return to Syria.

Notably, Merz is pointing to the sky-high levels of unemployment among many of the country’s Syrian population. The chancellor candidate, during an appearance on ARD, said the “one-third” who “work and are integrated” in Germany can stay, “but the two-thirds do not work, they are overwhelmingly young men, many of them can go back, and many must go back.”

He said that a push to return many of these migrants must occur, saying:

 “We must now speak very openly with them and say: You have no place in Germany in the long term… We have long been of the opinion that at least people could have returned to the north a long time ago, and now to other parts of the country as well.”

There are currently 1 million Syrians in the country, and those not working have become a major burden for German taxpayers. According to government data, 210,000 are employed, while 250,000 are currently “looking for work.” Another 150,000 are unemployed.

Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government, there is a European-wide push to return Syrians to their country; however, the ruling German government has expressed caution about the security situation in the country.

Merz himself said there should be a halt to accepting new refugees from Syria and that “those who come could also have been members of Assad’s militias and we have no use for them in Germany.”

The CDU under Merkel is responsible for most of the Syrians in Germany after Merkel gave the greenlight to allow them to settle in the country. Many of the Syrians in Germany have shown no interest in returning home.

This Syrian migrant famously took a selfie with Merkel back in 2016.

Now, he says he has no plans to return to Syria.

The same applies for hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Even if conditions improve in Syria, many receive benefits in Germany they'll never willingly give up. pic.twitter.com/wkXGhacFDV

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) December 13, 2024

Both the CDU and their sister party, the Christian Socialists (CSU), are pushing for rapid deportation of criminals. The head of the CSU in the Bundestag, Alexander Dobrindt, told the Rheinische Post that “if reasons for protection no longer apply and the right of residence expires in many cases, then repatriation to Syria must also be possible.” He said he is pushing for the quick deportation of criminals first and foremost and financial support for voluntary departures.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has also called for Syrians to return to their country, and the CDU may have trouble implementing its agenda on this issue. It has already signaled it will refuse to work with the AfD following February elections and will instead join a coalition with the Green Party. The Greens, in turn, have already rejected calls to return Syrians.

“By demanding immediate return and combining this with incentives, the Union (CDU) shows once again that it is using migration policy for its election campaign and disregarding the reality in the Middle East,” said Lamya Kaddor, the Greens’ domestic policy spokeswoman in the Bundestag,

She said she hopes that every Syrian who wishes to return voluntarily will be able to do so safely.

“At the same time, many Syrians have been naturalized and have become native here. Many are making a valuable contribution to our society, their children are German and they are building a life for themselves in Germany,” she said.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats are attacking what they say is the un-Christian stance of the Christian Democrats.

“The fact that the CDU and CSU are talking about deportations first after the fall of the dictator Assad and against the backdrop of a still unclear situation in Syria is shabby and cynical,” SPD parliamentary group vice-chairman Dirk Wiese told the Rheinische Post .

“The Union would be consistent in its stance if it were to remove the C from its name,” said Wiese. “Our support should clearly go to the Syrians who have had to live under a terrible regime for years – towards a free and safe Syria.”

Read more here…

END

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/ISRAEL/USA

.West Ready To Court Terror Leader Jolani If Russian Military Pushed Out Of Syria

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 10:10 PM

We reported earlier that Russia is in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus over the future fate of the two Russian military bases on Syria’s coast. The Tartous Naval Base remains Russia’s only Mediterranean military port. And alongside Khmeimim Air Base, these are the only two major Russian military outposts outside of the former Soviet Union.

As expected, the West is pressuring the jihadist group under Abu Mohammed al-Jolani to ensure Russia’s military is booted from the country. What’s more is that European countries are using the question of Syria’s continued economic isolation as leverage.

And the West is also dangling the terror designation in front of HTS. “Some European nations are considering making the expulsion of Russia’s military from Syria a precondition for lifting restrictions against the Islamist group now in control of most of the country, according to people familiar with the matter,” The Straits Times reports.

The report comes as the Biden White House is also mulling the matter of whether to drop its formal terror designation against HTS, which began years ago as Al-Nusra Front, or Syrian al-Qaeda. 

The West seems to be saying that if HTS merely does what it wants, all can be ‘forgiven’. Per the same report:

A debate is also underway about whether to make the delivery of longer-term aid to the war-ravaged nation conditional on Moscow vacating its two Syrian bases, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive material. The talks are ongoing and a joint final decision has yet to be taken, they said. 

The conferring between countries is a sign of broader international support for the position taken by Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp, who said it would be “too early” to lift European Union sanctions against Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, which ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a little over a week ago. 

“We really would like to condition that on an inclusive political transition,” Veldkamp also said. The West has been urging HTS to respect ethnic and religious minorities, given that it has been known to massacre and persecute Alawites, Christians, Druze, Shia, or anyone who is not an extremist Sunni.

The Dutch foreign minister emphasized, “I think it’s also important to look at conditionality regarding the Russian military bases in Syria.” He’s emphatic that “We want the Russians out.”

The West is turning a blind eye to the ground reality that Syria will go from quasi-secular state under Baath rule to rapid hardline Islamization…

It is disgraceful for an institution like the U.N. to bow to the leader of HTS and require the women in this delegation to cover their hair. This represents a betrayal of women and sends a dangerous message that the U.N. is willing to legitimize the Islamization of the state. pic.twitter.com/VkWUoaCm0w

— Greco-Levantines World Wide (@GrecoLevantines) December 16, 2024

Thus it appears the West is lining up to court the terrorists in Damascus… or as we described earlier this is all about putting lipstick on a pig – at the end of which Jolani and HTS will be sold to the European and Americans as a “moderate”. And for Europe, this arrangement will also help deal a blow to Russia related to the Ukraine war.

END

SYRIA/TURKEY//USA

Trump’s view of NATO member Turkey on Assad’s ouster!

(zerohedge)

Trump Says Assad’s Ouster In Syria Was An ‘Unfriendly Takeover’ By Turkey

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 08:30 PM

In a wide-ranging question and answer session from the press, President-elect Donald Trump speculated over what was behind the collapse of Syria and the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

He said the jihadist rebel victory in Syria was really an ‘unfriendly takeover’ by Turkey. The explanation he gave at first generated headlines which made it appear he was condemning and lashing out at Turkish action; however, the full comments were a bit more sympathetic and deferential to Erdogan and to Turkey.

In the comments he hailed Turkey’s regional role as a major power and his personal ties with President Erdogan.

“Turkey is a major force, by the way, and Erdogan is somebody I got along with great but he has a major military force. And he has not been worn out with war,” Trump told reporters at the briefing held at Mar-a-Lago estate. “He’s built a very strong, powerful army” – he said in reference to Erdogan.

“[Erdogan] is a very smart guy and very tough, but Turkey did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost. I can say that Assad was a butcher here what he did to children.”

Trump also explained that “Turkey is the one behind it” and stressed “They wanted it for 1000s of years, and he got it, and those people that went in are controlled by Turkey, and that’s okay. It’s another way to but no, I don’t think that.”

He said that while “nobody knows” the future of post-Assad Syria, he still thinks “Turkey is going to hold the key to” the nation. “Actually, I don’t think you’ve heard that from anybody else, but I’ve been pretty good at predicting,” Trump followed with, but without saying whether he will eventually pull US forces out of Syria.

Turkey’s leader of the opposition believes Israel and US have reached an agreement to topple Assad by sending HTS to Damascus.

“They agreed that the army would not resist, the prime minister would surrender, and Assad would say he resigned and flee as planned.” pic.twitter.com/BhBLs3vKY6

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 16, 2024

The presence of US forces in Deir Ezzor and Hasakeh regions has frequently outraged Turkey, especially given US troops are training and arming Syrian Kurdish YGP forces (which form the core of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF). But Ankara views this group as but an extension of the outlawed PKK.

END

SYRIA/ISRAEL/GOLAN HEIGHTS

Seems that these residents want to join Israel. They just transferred Assad weapons to the iDF

(JerusalemPost)

Residents of Syrian Golan villages, rebels transfer Assad weapons to IDF – report

Syrian villagers and rebels near the buffer zone are handing over Assad’s former weapons cache—including chemical warfare materials—to the IDF, marking a significant shift in regional dynamics.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 16, 2024 22:42Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2024 00:07

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-833743&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241212_1c3894f2c24f32135c65b5e9b6556e9f1197587d&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Villagers and rebels in the Syrian Golan and around the buffer zone have been transferring weapons from the previous regime to the IDF to be taken to Israel, N12 revealed in exclusive footage on Monday.

The footage shows residents of Syrian villages and rebels loading trucks with hundreds of boxes of ammunition, mortars, bombs, and grenades and transferring them to the IDF.

IDF soldiers told N12 that they found several weapons filled with chemical warfare material.

“You can see cheap grenades that were filled with chemical material, and they need to add a mechanism to activate them,” the soldiers explained. 

“There are boxes full of grenades with chemical materials that cause irritation and should not be touched directly.”

Former Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad had used chemical warfare to fight against rebel forces for years, and now that the rebels have taken control of these weapon stockpiles, they are being transferred to the IDF and making their way to Israel.

Defense Minister Israel Katz

According to N12, Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the IDF to prepare to maintain their presence in the Syrian buffer zone at least until the stabilization of the new regime in Syria.

END

ISRAEL GERMANY TURKEY/RUSSIA

Look who is talking! Russia and Turkey???

Russia, Germany, Turkey Condemn Israeli Land Grab In Syria

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 11:00 PM

“Strengthening the Golan is strengthening the State of Israel, and it is especially important at this time. We will continue to hold onto it, cause it to blossom and settle in it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, confirming reports that Israel will expand its settler population there.

Netanyahu has now declare the Golan to belong to Israel ‘forever’ in the wake of the fall of the Assad, and Israel is expected to double the amount of settlers living there. “Multiple Middle Eastern nations and Israel’s ally Germany on Monday denounced Israel’s decision to double the Israeli settler population in the illegally occupied Syrian territory,” Al Jazeera writes.

At this point Israeli tanks are positioned a mere couple dozen miles from the capital of Damascus, and Israel has established a forward base on the Syrian side of Mt. Hermon.

Russia has been among those countries strongly warning Israel not to expand its hold on Syrian territory. The Golan was first taken by Israel in 1967 and it was annexed in 1981.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on Monday issued the following strong words telling Israel to stop exploiting the situation:

“I would like to warn certain ‘hotheads’ in West Jerusalem against being intoxicated by opportunities,” Ryabkov said, stressing that “the annexation of the Golan Heights, which many are talking about now, is absolutely unacceptable.” 

Turkey too has said something similar. “This decision is a new stage in Israel’s goal of expanding its borders through occupation. This step by Israel is a source of grave concern, taken together with Israel’s entry into the area of separation, in violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement, its advance into adjacent areas and airstrikes in Syria,” its foreign ministry said.

Al Jazeera further notes the following countries’ statements:

• Qatar rebuked the scheme as a “new episode in a series of Israeli aggressions on Syrian territories”.
• Jordan called it a “blatant violation of international law”.
• Turkiye denounced the move as a bid by Israel to “expand its borders”.
• Saudi Arabia slammed “continued sabotage of Syria’s chances of restoring its security and stability”.
• Egypt condemned the plans as “a flagrant violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

Israeli occupation forces continue to send military equipment into the buffer zone along the Syrian border. Mohammad Al-Kassim has more from the occupied Golan Heights pic.twitter.com/q1yHfMJYxE

— TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) December 16, 2024

Despite many acknowledging that Turkish intelligence was behind the rapid Hayat Tahrir al-Sham takeover of the country, Israel has by and large been a big ‘winner’ on a geostrategic level from Assad’s ousting. 

But it’s ironic and hypocritical that Turkey would do any condemning of annexing Syrian land here… given Turkey has long occupied northern Syria, and its troops have now moved into the environs of Aleppo while supporting its proxies there.

END

IRAN/opinion

Disgraced and isolated: As his axis falls, Iran’s Khamenei finds himself alone – opinion

Khamenei is buried under the rubble of defeat, yet he still plots new schemes to create chaos and incite war, despite no longer having the power or energy to carry them out.

By ERAN FARDDECEMBER 17, 2024 02:01

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fopinion%2Farticle-833721&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241212_1c3894f2c24f32135c65b5e9b6556e9f1197587d&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

On December 11, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered his first speech following Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s fall, broadcast as a pre-recorded message.

Its significance rested solely on the propaganda spread by his supporters. During the 51-minute ramble, he offered no ideas, messages, or meaningful content. His speech was riddled with delusions – a chaotic and unsettling display.

Khamenei’s arguments came across as childish and riddled with lies and contradictions, and his sentences were often incoherent and disjointed. He embodies the traits of a stubborn, fearful, vengeful, and irrational dictator.

After my article in The Jerusalem Post on December 8, I appeared on Iran International TV at the invitation of Mehdi Parpanchi, the perceptive director of news, to discuss Assad’s downfall and the potential domino effect threatening the Islamic Republic. In advance, my friend Dr. Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) had written about the possibility of Iran and other regional nations facing collapse after Syria.

Khamenei lashed out in his December 11 speech, stating: “That ignorant analyst knows nothing about resistance, thinking it will weaken. Iran remains strong and mighty.”

I shared excerpts from both analyses on my social media. In 2022, after Khamenei criticized my book Trapped by Events – a dialogue with H. E. Parviz Sabeti, a former SAVAK secret police official—my lawyer (J.S.) advised me to inform the FBI and US Department of Homeland Security, which I did.

Desperately, Khamenei revealed how the humiliating defeat of the regime’s “Axis of Evil” in the Middle East, particularly against Israel, has left him disgraced, isolated, and despondent. He resorted to issuing threats. He tacitly acknowledged the misery and failure of the outlaw regime he leads, lamenting that the US and Israel had thwarted his ambitions for domination and continued violence.

His frustration was evident as he admitted to Israel’s success in disrupting arms and bomb shipments. For years, he has labeled the entire world as “enemies,” yet paradoxically expects these “enemies” to tolerate his provocations and terrorism.

Khamenei’s obstinate and misguided behavior

While his fantasies of silencing dissidents persist, his reign of fear and violence can no longer stifle the free flow of information. The regime scrambles to suppress dissent, with the US attorney general swiftly announcing legal action against critics and targeting analysts and commentators in a desperate bid to reactivate dormant terror cells, specifically on US soil.

Khamenei’s transnational Shi’ite Islamic terrorist network has crumbled and is no longer capable of spreading chaos across the Middle East: Decades of oppressing the Iranian people and squandering their wealth on ambitions of regional domination have unraveled. The collapse of this network marks not only a strategic defeat for Khamenei but also a turning point for those who have long suffered under his regime’s tyranny.

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Khamenei revealed his inability to accept defeat while expressing deep concern over the regional failures: The loss of Hamas and Hezbollah, leaving only the West Bank, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and the Popular Mobilization Forces, highlights the disintegration of his once-influential network.

The special operations units in Lebanon and Syria within the IRGC have been rendered inactive, as they no longer have any practical capabilities.

Khamenei’s attempts to justify the regime’s actions hinge on superstitious Shi’ite narratives manufactured by the religious octopus: Despite his claims of fighting for Shi’ite shrines, even the IRGC’s commanders have admitted to intervening in Syria to save Assad long before ISIS appeared. Khamenei claimed that Iran’s involvement in Syria was to preserve security, but where in the world does an anti-security terrorist seek to protect security?

Khamenei repeatedly lied in his speech: For example, he claimed he wanted to help the people of Syria and Lebanon, but this was untrue; he had no intention of sending rice, flour, or oil – his aim was to send weapons.

Another lie was his justification for intervention in Syria, where he stated that Syria helped Iran during the eight-year war. However, he failed to mention that even then, supreme leader Ali Ruhollah Khomeini prolonged the war to such an extent that in November 1987, Syria, along with other Arab countries, condemned Iran for delaying the acceptance of Resolution 598 and explicitly expressed “solidarity” with Saddam Hussein – the criminal leader of Iraq.

Syria also signed a strongly worded statement from Arab countries in support of Saddam against Iran. In the Kayhan newspaper on Thursday, February 8, 1979, it was reported how Syria had supported Khomeini and his terrorist gang before 1979. Notably, Assad’s fall brought joy to the Iranian people.

Another defeat for Khamenei came when Hamas congratulated the anti-Assad armed forces on their victory in Syria. This is reminiscent of the time when Khomeini formed his interim government in front of Yasser Arafat and Muammar Gaddafi’s envoy – both of whom later supported Saddam.

One point was glaringly evident: Khamenei is buried under the rubble of defeat, yet he still plots new schemes to create chaos and incite war, despite no longer having the power or energy to carry them out.

The stubborn old fool refuses to learn from developments and fails to understand that killing, threats, and suppression will lead him nowhere. This is a path that dictators around the world have trodden, reaching no destination, and he too will remain buried in this sewer.

The ruthless tyrant of Iran demonstrated that he still lacks any understanding of reality: He fundamentally fails to comprehend international relations and remains immersed in his own delusions and fantasies. For his own consolation, he delivers long speeches that resemble incoherent rambling. His words lack scientific basis, are not grounded in reality, and have no foundation in reason or logic.

All of Iran’s wealth has been squandered on expanding Islamic terrorism, arms trafficking, and financing terrorism. Thanks to Israel, all of his deterrence power, defensive military capabilities, and his so-called axis of evil have been destroyed.

Khamenei and his incapable regime failed to launch a third military attack on Israel and know that Donald Trump is on his way to the White House: The Islamic Republic has effectively become weaker, and its survival faces serious danger. In these circumstances, he is merely content with announcing the construction of an atomic bomb, but this will certainly lead to a military strike on nuclear facilities, coordinated by the CIA and Mossad.

The powerless, exhausted, and humiliated loser of the Middle East is Khamenei and his regime. These are villains and thugs who lack the support of the Iranian people. Iranian society has no dialogue even with a weak dictator.

American and Israeli intelligence agencies also know that without regime change in Iran, there will be no peace, stability, or calm in the Middle East. Seeing the Islamic Republic fall into a downward spiral of weakness and defeat is a pleasing scene for them.

They know that the weaker it becomes, the less ability it has to ignite fires and wage war, and it is forced to retreat, surviving only through its repression machine and propaganda. The regime in Tehran is severely lacking in any tools or resources. They know that in the eyes of the people, the Islamic Republic is dead and should be buried. The mafia and military junta regime is on the verge of collapse.

He continued his speech with empty promises and hollow slogans, his face crumpled and devastated. He offered no substance in his claims or military displays. His terrorist organizations have collapsed, his imaginary resistance front has been destroyed, and he lacks the ability to rebuild.

Like a defeated army in war, he has no possibility of reconstruction. In his mind, the whole world is to blame, and he judges everyone.

The mullah’s regime has been rhetorically disarmed and is at an impasse. It is a regime without allies or friends; it is crisis-ridden, impoverished, and politically paralyzed.

Khamenei did not even dare to mention the names of Turkey or Russia in his speech: He neither criticized Bashar Assad nor uttered a single word against Vladimir Putin or Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Instead, he threatened the Iranian people, critics, and analysts. He remains committed to continuing the path of rebellion, as his survival depends on it. He is fundamentally unwilling to coexist with the modern world.

Amid lies and threats and failing to address consecutive defeats, he promises the appearance of something that doesn’t exist, and the crisis has engulfed all pillars of the corrupt regime.

History assures us that the day will come when the Iranian people will no longer hear that trembling, discordant voice. Iranians, well-versed in the poet Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh, (The Book of Kings) know the truth: Tyranny leads to destruction.

The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His latest book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X @EQFARD.

end

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/HAMAS/WEST BANK

Israel will respond finally against the Houthis!

(JerusalemPost)

Israel is likely to finally respond to Yemen’s Houthis, ‘Post’ has learned

The Jerusalem Post learned that Israel has lost patience with the Houthis and may be ready to act.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 16, 2024 18:09Updated: DECEMBER 16, 2024 22:03

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Israel is likely to finally respond to Yemen’s Houthis in the coming weeks, The Jerusalem Post learned on Monday following yet another ballistic missile attack by the Iranian proxy.

The IDF air defense intercepted a ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Houthis on Monday, setting off sirens across central Israel, the army announced at 3:23 p.m.

The IDF added that the missile did not cross into Israeli territory. However, alerts were triggered due to the possibility of falling debris from the interception.

Generally, only the Arrow missile defense system is capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, as opposed to the Iron Dome, which shoots down lower-grade rockets.

Moreover, the cost of shooting down ballistic missiles can be as high as two to three million dollars per interceptor when the Arrow 2 or 3 is used.

Estimates are that the Houthis have fired around a dozen ballistic missiles and drones at Israel since the start of November, including several in the last two weeks.

Despite these ongoing attacks, Israel has failed to respond since October.

Tackling the Houthi threat

On December 2, the Post reported that it was unclear if or when Israel would respond to the Houthi ballistic missile attack from the day before.

The ballistic missile on December 1 was shot down outside of Israeli territory. No Israelis were killed or injured directly from the missile, but some shrapnel did land in certain central Israel areas, and a small number of persons got injured rushing for shelter.

Also, that missile – like Monday’s missile – set off warning sirens for almost all of central Israel since it was unclear exactly where it might hit if it had penetrated Israel’s air defense.

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Because no one was killed or injured, because Israel had recently wrapped up a ceasefire with Hezbollah, because Israel has been hoping to wrap up a deal with Hamas as well, because Yemen is more than 1,800 km. away, and because some of Israel’s grand strategy for the region is waiting for US President-elect Donald Trump to enter the White House on January 20, there were no signs whatsoever to date of an Israeli response.

If Yemen had not attacked again after December 1, Israel might have chosen not to respond at all.

Unlike the other two instances when the Houthis attacked in July and September and top Israeli officials quickly vowed a response, here officials were largely silent – until Monday.

But on Monday, sources finally indicated a loss of patience with the Houthis.

On September 29, the IDF undertook a massive strike against the Houthis, which greatly exceeded the massive strike on Hodeidah in July.

Each of these attacks achieved some temporary quiet from the Houthis, but in both cases, within a month or so after Israel’s counterstrike, the Houthis started to attack Israel again.

US efforts to stop Houthi aggression beyond their country have also failed to date.

THE IDF on Monday announced that the volume of suspected West Bank terrorists it has arrested crossed the 6,000-person mark since the start of the current war 14 months ago.

While at the start of the war, around 60% or more of those arrested were members of Hamas, already in early 2024, the ratio was reversed and the majority of those arrested were not necessarily affiliated with Hamas.

At this point, the IDF said that 2,350 – or around 39%, a low for the war – are members of Hamas.

Those arrested who are not members of Hamas can be members of Islamic Jihad or the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), but more recently have been local gangs and militias who are not affiliated with wider terror groups.

Some of the arrests made overnight were unusual, such as the arrests of more than 10 suspects and the seizure of over NIS one million in terror funds from Jericho, villages in the Etzion bloc, and other areas.

There were also arrests and seizures of terror funds in northern Samaria near Salem, including confiscating some weapons. Eight suspects were arrested in northern Samaria and three in the other areas.

According to the human rights NGO HaMoked and based on data from the Israel Prison Service, as of December 2024, Israel holds 10,154 different categories of security prisoners – by far the largest number since the First Intifada of 1987-1991.

Of these, 2,003 are sentenced prisoners, 2,951 detainees are remanded in custody pending their trials, and 3,428 administrative detainees are being held outside standard criminal proceedings. Most of these Palestinians come from the West Bank.

Israel also holds 1,772 people as “unlawful combatants,” though this number has continually dropped after having reached thousands at the start of the war. Periodically and quietly, Israel has sent many of the unlawful combatants back to Gaza if and when it does not feel it has sufficient evidence to indict them.

Israel has also killed over 750 Palestinians in the West Bank, though IDF sources have told The Jerusalem Post that only around 3%, or around 25 Palestinian civilians, have been mistakenly killed during gunfights between the IDF and Palestinian terrorists in urban settings.

Israel has been criticized for the number of arrests and especially the number of administrative detainees. However, so much criticism has focused on alleged war crimes in Gaza, that there has been less attention this year to alleged violations by Israel against Palestinians in the West Bank.

On the other end of the spectrum, Israelis living in the West Bank have criticized the IDF for being too lenient and slow to attack and arrest suspected Palestinian terrorists, which they say has led to an unprecedented number of terror attacks throughout the war.

In Gaza, the Israel Air Force struck Hamas terrorists operating in a command and control center embedded in what had previously been the UNRWA “Sheikh Jamil School” in Khan Yunis on Sunday, the military said on Monday morning.

The school, also dubbed the “Ahmed Abdul Aziz School,” was located within the Khan Yunis humanitarian zone in southern Gaza, the IDF added.

The military further noted that the terrorists had planned to carry out terror activities against IDF troops and the State of Israel from within the training compound in the area.

Before the strike, the IDF implemented extensive precautions to minimize civilian harm, including the use of aerial surveillance, intelligence, and precision munitions, the military said.

“The terrorists operated from a structure that previously served as a school, which is yet another example of how the terrorist organization systematically operates within civilian population,” the IDF stated.

“The terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip systematically violate international law, exploiting civilian infrastructure and the Gazan population as human shields for terrorist activity,” it added.

Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.

end

ISRAEL //WEST BANK

the Palestinian Authority now going against Hamas. Hamas calls for mobilization to repel PA

(JerusalemPost)

Hamas calls for ‘mobilization’ to repel PA security forces amid West Bank ops.

“The continuation of the PA’s security operation indicates that it is turning a deaf ear to all Palestinian voices,” the terror group claimed.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 17, 2024 10:10Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2024 13:44

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Hamas called on “all movements, factions, tribal gatherings, and human rights organizations to mobilize massively” to repel the ongoing operation carried out by Palestinian Authority security forces in the West Bank city of Jenin in an official statement on Tuesday.

“We emphasize that the continuation of the PA’s security operation indicates that it is turning a deaf ear to all Palestinian voices calling for its cessation and for the protection of the resistance,” the terror group’s statement read, adding that the PA operation “serves only the occupation army and its futile dreams of ending the resistance in the West Bank.”

The large-scale Jenin operation began earlier in December after Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists stole vehicles belonging to the Palestinian Authority.

Clashes have been since reported between terrorists and PA security forces in the area, with terrorists detonating a car bomb in the vicinity of a police station in Jenin.

Earlier this week, it was reported that the  US had asked Israel to approve the supply of weapons to the PA’s security forces. 

PA kills PIJ brigade commander

The commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin Brigade was reportedly killed after Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces and terrorists exchanged fire on Saturday as the security forces attempted to clear the fighters from the West Bank city of Jenin, according to Israeli and Arab reports.

The commander was named as Yazid Ja’isa.

According to Israeli state broadcaster KAN News, the terrorists reportedly attempted to stop the security forces from entering the refugee camp. 

Walla, Danielle Greyman-Kennard, and Sam Halpern contributed to this report. 

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS/close to a hostage deal

Hamas cedes demand of complete IDF withdrawal, end to war – report

However, the official noted that Hamas still demanded that Palestinians be allowed to return to the north of the Gaza Strip.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 17, 2024 15:07Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2024 15:09

Hamas has ceded its requests demanding that Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip, and the war ends in the framework of a hostage deal, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing an official for the terror group. 

The deal will reportedly include a 60-day pause in the conflict and the release of the hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. 

However, the official noted that Hamas still demanded that Palestinians be allowed to return to the north of the Gaza Strip.

“There is a noticeable shift in public opinion,” a Hamas member was quoted as saying by the publication, adding, “There is now a strong desire to end the war at any cost.”

‘Hostage deal closer than ever’

On Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said a hostage deal was closer than ever. 

Such a remark was reiterated by a senior Hamas official, cited in the Saudi news outlet Asharq Al-Awsat.

“We are closer than ever to reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, provided that Netanyahu does not obstruct the agreement,” he reportedly said.

Sam Halpern and Raquel Guertzenstein Frohlich contributed to this report. 

END

SYRIA/

Looks like the Islamist leader is becoming more moderate

(JerusalemPost)

Syrian Islamist leader calls for state contract with religious groups ‘to guarantee social justice’

By AFPToday, 1:53 am

DAMASCUS — Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Islamist group, says that a “social contract” between the state and all religions in the country is needed to ensure “social justice.”

“Syria must remain united, and there must be a social contract between the state and all religions to guarantee social justice,” says Jolani, who now goes by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, on Telegram.

He also says that international sanctions against Damascus must be lifted if refugees displaced by the war are to return.

During a meeting with a British delegation, Jolani spoke “of the importance of restoring relations” with London, and stressed “the importance of ending all sanctions imposed on Syria so that displaced Syrians… can return to their country,” according to remarks reported on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Telegram channel.

END

SYRIA

Islamist leader says Syrian rebel factions to be ‘disbanded,’ folded into army

By AFPToday, 12:54 am

DAMASCUS — Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Islamist group that toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, says that rebel factions in the war-torn country will be disbanded and their fighters will join regular army units.

“The factions will be disbanded and the fighters trained to join the ranks of the defense ministry, and all will be subject to the law,” Jolani, who now uses his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said on Telegram.

END

SYRIA/TURKEY

Turkey may invade Syria to knock out the Kurds. Israel may have to come to the aid of the Kurds along with the USA guarding the oil in that area

(JerusalemPost)

Turkish invasion into Syria ‘could be imminent,’ US officials fear – report

The officials cited a significant Turkish military buildup near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city on the Syria-Turkey border.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 17, 2024 08:32

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The United States is increasingly alarmed that Turkey and its militia allies are preparing for a large-scale military incursion into Syrian territory controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces, according to an exclusive Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday, citing US officials. 

The officials cited a significant Turkish military buildup near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city on the Syria-Turkey border, sparking fears of imminent conflict.

According to US officials cited in the report, the buildup resembled Turkish movements seen ahead of its 2019 invasion of northeast Syria. One US official, speaking to the WSJ, warned that “a cross-border operation could be imminent.”

The officials also emphasized that a new Turkish offensive would deepen instability in the region and undermine efforts to maintain security against Islamic State remnants.

The report detailed the deployment of Turkish uniformed commandos, artillery units, and allied militias to strategic positions along the border. 

In response to the escalating situation, Ilham Ahmed, a senior official in the Kurdish civilian administration in Syria, penned a letter to President-elect Donald Trump, urging him to pressure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to abandon the planned operation.

Ahmed’s letter, obtained by the WSJ, stated that Turkey aimed to seize control of Kurdish territory before Trump’s inauguration, thereby forcing the new administration to recognize Ankara’s authority in the region.

“If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic,” Ahmed’s letter was cited as saying, noting that such an operation could displace more than 200,000 Kurdish civilians and threaten Christian communities in the area.

The letter reportedly appealed to Trump’s prior assurances of support for the Kurdish forces, reminding him of his past promises that “the United States wouldn’t abandon the Kurds.”

“Your decisive leadership can stop this invasion and preserve the dignity and safety of those who have stood as steadfast allies in the fight for peace and security,” Ahmed’s letter further read. 

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The WSJ further noted the precarious position of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group working alongside US troops to eliminate the remaining elements of the Islamic State.

With Turkish-backed forces now surrounding Kobani from the east and west, an SDF spokesperson told WSJ that cease-fire negotiations mediated by the United States collapsed earlier this week without agreement.

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Turkey in an effort to de-escalate tensions. Blinken sought assurances from Erdogan to limit operations against Kurdish forces but was unable to secure any commitments, according to the report. 

Toppling of Assad’s regime

The rising threat comes after the recent collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime earlier in December, which left a power vacuum and reignited conflict between the Syrian Kurds and Turkish-backed rebel factions.

Turkey has long viewed the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara designated as a terrorist organization. 

The WSJ stated the Turkish embassy in Washington declined to comment to its report.

end

You are! No, you are!: Israel, Turkey fight over who is occupying Syria

Israel and Turkey have entered into a diplomatic spat, with both sides accusing the other of occupying Syria.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 17, 2024 22:33Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2024 22:38

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-833878&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241217_aa84504b51132e177071b3b0f984430fcda56c53&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israel and Turkey have entered into a diplomatic spat, with both sides accusing the other of occupying Syria in statements made on Monday and Tuesday.

On Monday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry published a statement that it condemned Israel’s decision to expand settlements in the Golan Heights. 

They called it a step in Israel’s “expansion of borders through occupation.”

Turkey called on Israel to abide by the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, which ended open hostilities with Syria. Netanyahu declared this agreement void after Assad regime troops abandoned their posts on the Golan Heights following the disintegration of the Assad regime.

Accusing Israel

Israel’s Foreign Ministry responded the next day with a statement accusing Turkey of occupying Syria as part of a campaign of aggression and violence against Syria’s Kurdish minority, which Erdogan and various Turkish officials have accused of harboring PKK terrorists.

Israel accused Turkeu of systematically encroaching on Syrian territory across three major operations in 2016, ’18, ’19.

It accused Turkey of establishing armed proxy groups, such as the Syrian National Army, to control this territory, where “Turkish currency is in use, and Turkish bank branches and postal services have been operating.”

Israel accused Turkey of taking control of approximately 15% of Syria’s territory as well as attacking Syrians and supporting jihadi terrorists.

“There is no justification for the continuation of Turkish aggression and violence against Kurds in Syria!” The ministry said.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

very scary! the west is pushing the envelop too far!

(zerohedge)

West Pushing Russia Beyond ‘Red Line’ While Building Up Troops In Europe: Putin

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 05:20 PM

The month of December has already witnessed several waves of US-supplied long-range ATACMS target inside Russian territory. Many have been intercepted, but others have struck Russian bases.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday addressed a meeting of his defense ministry wherein he warned that the Western allies are pushing Russia beyond a red line. He stressed that this means Moscow is pushed into a situation in which it must retaliate.

He began the comments by accusing the US of seeking “to weaken our country and inflict a strategic defeat”  by continuing “to pump a de facto illegitimate ruling regime in Kiev with weapons and money, sending mercenaries and military advisers, thereby encouraging further escalation of the conflict.”

Putin continued, according an English translation in state media, “They push us to the red line… we begin to respond, and then they frighten their population.” He said that Washington authorities in this way use “simple tactics” to keep the American population in fear, allowing escalation of threats to continue.

According to another translation by Reuters:

The Russian president said: “They [Western leaders] are simply scaring their own population that we are going to attack someone there using the pretext of the mythical Russian threat.

“The tactic is very simple: they push us to ‘a red line’, from which we can not retreat, we start to respond and then they immediately scare their population – in the old days it was with the Soviet threat and now it’s with the Russian threat.”

He not only warned that Russia and other independent nations are facing West-sponsored “hybrid wars” – but that NATO is increasing its force posture in Europe near Russia’s borders.

“The number of American service members in Europe has already exceeded 100,000 troops,“ he said, also noting that Washington’s presence in the Asia-Pacific region has increased too.

Putin in the comments further hinted that though Moscow currently abides by the INF Treaty, even after Washington pulled out, all self-imposed restrictions could immediately be lifted should the US begin deploying its medium and short-range missile systems in violation of the now defunct treaty.

“If the United States begins to deploy such systems, then all our voluntary restrictions will be lifted,” he warned. “The relocation and deployment of these missile systems in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region is already being practiced.”

President-Elect Donald Trump on Monday said that he could immediately reverse the Biden admin’s policy of allowing Kiev to hit Russia with US missiles. He has vowed to rapidly de-escalate and negotiate toward peace.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

this is trouble! Putin is no doubt furious! Another hypersonic missile on Kiev?

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Assassinates Head Of Russia’s Chemical & Biological Defense Forces With ‘Scooter Bomb’ In Moscow

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 08:45 AM

In another scary escalation which will lead to unpredictable consequences, a top military general and head of the Russian military’s chemical weapons forces was killed in Moscow in a targeted blast which Ukraine quickly owned up to. Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov has been confirmed killed in an assassination bombing, and is the most senior Russian official killed since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.

According to emerging details confirmed in state TASS news agency, citing Russia’s emergency services, a bomb was hidden in an electric scooter parked outside Gen. Kirillov’s apartment. As he and his assistant walked by, the explosive was remotely detonated. The assistant was also immediately killed. Footage showed a large blast outside the residential building.

The 54-year old oversaw Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection troops – and Kiev and Western sources have accused him of ordering deployment of chemical weapons in the conflict.

An official Kremlin statement reads: “On the morning of December 17, an explosive device planted in a scooter went off near a residential building entrance on Ryazansky Avenue in Moscow, the investigation showed. Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his aide were killed in the explosion.”

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is openly boasting to being behind the killing and Ukrainian sources have acknowledged this to American media.

“Kirillov was a war criminal and an entirely legitimate target, as he issued orders to use prohibited chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops,” an SBU source told ABC. “Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable.”

“By order of Kirillov, more than 4,800 cases of the enemy’s use of chemical munitions have been recorded since the beginning of the full-scale war,” the SBU added, but only cited that grenades equipped with substances like CS and other riot control type irritants have been used.

Video of the bombing has also been released by the SBU. Clearly the hit was carefully planned an choreographed as the attack seems to have been filmed with a ground view from a nearby vehicle.

‼️ BREAKING: New video showing the moment General Kirillov and his assistant Polikarpov were blown up

The footage clearly shows that it was the scooter that exploded.

The explosion killed Igor Kirillov, head of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces of the… pic.twitter.com/3i8P59uPW0

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 17, 2024

“The footage shows Gen. Kirillov and his aide exiting a building, with the infamous scooter standing nearby,” an unnamed Ukrainian source has described. “The moment they enter the blast zone of the explosive device, the scooter is blown into the air, delivering a ‘verdict’ to the war criminal.”

Moscow is vowing that Ukraine will pay dearly, with Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman and former president Dmitry Medvedev warning in a fresh statement in the aftermath of Kirillov’s death, “Attempts to intimidate our nation, stop the Russian offensive or sow fear are doomed. Certain punishment awaits Banderite Nazis, including the top military and political leaders of a crumbling country.”

Medvedev characterized the assassination it as done in desperation given that Kiev forces are steadily being beaten back on the Donbas. Indeed such cross-border acts have only gotten more brazen of late.

Medvedev continued: “This terrorist attack demonstrates the agony of the Banderite regime, which is struggling to justify its shaky existence in the eyes of its Western patrons and prolong the deadly hostilities while delivering cowardly attacks on civilians in cities and towns.”

Meanwhile President Putin had just this week warned that the West is going ‘beyond’ Russia’s red line in its support to Ukraine, and said things are escalating at a dangerous pace.

END

Russia Says Ukraine Allies Are ‘Accomplices’ In Moscow Assassination Of A Top General

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 02:05 PM

Update(1405): Russia has blasted the West for staying quiet after Ukraine openly boasted of assassinating a top Russian general earlier in the day, identified as Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who was killed when a scooter bomb detonated remotely upon his leaving his apartment in the early morning hours:

Russia on Tuesday criticised Ukraine’s allies over what it called insufficient reactions to the assassination in Moscow of the Russian army’s chemical weapons chief, an attack claimed by Kyiv.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the West in a Telegram post of “approval for war crimes by fighters of the Kyiv regime” and said “all those who welcome terrorist attacks or deliberately hush them up are accomplices“.

This also brings up questions of past reports exposing a CIA program to train and assist Ukraine’s special forces and intelligence in sabotage and cross-border targeting…

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR BRINGING THIS TO OUR ATTENTION:

Peter Sweden on X: “IT BEGINS Dutch court rules that Bill Gates must stand trial over covid vaccine claims. This is massive. https://t.co/RzdsB4YwxZ” /

This should be interesting..

IT BEGINS

Dutch court rules that Bill Gates must stand trial over covid vaccine claims.

This is massive.https://t.co/RzdsB4YwxZ

— PeterSweden (@PeterSweden7) December 16, 2024

END

It begins!! Fauci is no doubt hiding!

(zerohedge)

Key Figures From “Thank You Dr. Fauci” Lead The Quest For COVID-19 Accountability

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 04:40 PM

The documentary Thank You Dr. Fauci has emerged as a prescient roadmap for understanding the COVID-19 pandemic, its origins, and the political and scientific decisions that shaped the world’s response. If you haven’t already, please watch and share this groundbreaking work.

With recent talk of a preemptive pardon for Fauci, the film – and those featured in it, is set to take center stage in what we hope begins a phase of accountability.

BREAKING: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre just refused to confirm/deny whether Biden is looking to pardon Dr. Fauci and Liz Cheney.

"Are any of those names wrong?"

PIERRE: "It would be a bad move on my behalf if I preempted the president […] This is something… pic.twitter.com/kfiyCGJeBf

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 12, 2024

Directed by progressive filmmaker Jenner Furst, Thank You Dr. Fauci brings together an extraordinary cast of whistleblowers, investigators, and scientists who were early voices in questioning the narratives surrounding the pandemic. As the Trump administration prepares to take office, with figures like Senator Rand Paul leading investigations into COVID-19 origins, the documentary stands as a bold call for transparency, justice, and reform.

The film carefully curates a mix of insiders, investigators, and progressive activists who have shaped the COVID-19 discourse. Their inclusion not only provides a thorough examination of the pandemic but also underscores the film’s broader message about systemic failures and the need for reform.

Dr. Richard Ebright: The Voice Against Risky Research

Ebright, a molecular biologist and professor at Rutgers University, plays a crucial role in Thank You Dr. Fauci as one of the most prominent critics of gain-of-function research and its potential role in the COVID-19 pandemic.

For years, Ebright has been a leading voice in the scientific community warning of the dangers posed by experiments that enhance the transmissibility or pathogenicity of viruses. His expertise and willingness to challenge public health orthodoxy make him a pivotal figure in the film’s narrative of accountability and reform.

@R_H_Ebright has been fighting Fauci for decades. Neil Harrison, @ekopp and @CharlesRixey from #DRASTIC were pivotal in uncovering COVID origins and scientific frauds committed by Fauci and others. Their work
continues as renewed investigation into Fauci heats up 🧵2/15 pic.twitter.com/LW9uNxVxLn

— Thank You Dr Fauci (@ThankYouDrFauci) December 16, 2024

@BiosafetyNow formed after the pandemic to combat Fauci’s reckless gain-of-function agenda, expose negligence, malfeasance and fraud. Scientists like @Bryce_Nickels and @jbkinney are working to retract illegitimate science papers secretly commissioned by Fauci and others 🧵3/15 pic.twitter.com/VTDO4BkLg9

— Thank You Dr Fauci (@ThankYouDrFauci) December 16, 2024

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya: From Lockdown Critic to Key Voice in the Trump Administration

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University professor of medicine and co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, emerges in Thank You Dr. Fauci as one of the most prominent critics of lockdowns and restrictive COVID-19 policies. Known for advocating “focused protection” instead of broad lockdowns, Bhattacharya has consistently argued that public health measures disproportionately harmed the poor, children, and vulnerable populations while failing to adequately address the spread of the virus. His inclusion in the film underscores the growing debate over the societal and economic costs of pandemic policies.

Bhattacharya has been appointed by President-elect Donald Trump as the Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). This role places him at the helm of one of the most powerful health agencies in the world, giving him the opportunity to reshape how the government approaches public health and pandemic preparedness.

@BiosafetyNow members @Ayjchan and @DrJBhattacharya exposed COVID origins and criticized lockdowns. Fauci colluded in "devastating take down" of @DrJBhattacharya. Now that he is nom for NIH Director, smears by crooked pro-Fauci scientists and doctors have intensified 🧵4/15 pic.twitter.com/TcQu426LND

— Thank You Dr Fauci (@ThankYouDrFauci) December 16, 2024

Dr. Bryce Nickels and Dr. Justin Kinney: Scientists Leading the Push for Biosafety Reform

Dr. Bryce Nickels, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, and Dr. Justin Kinney, a quantitative biologist at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, feature prominently in Thank You Dr. Fauci as advocates for greater accountability and reform in scientific research. Both scientists have been vocal critics of gain-of-function research, arguing that the lack of oversight and transparency in this field contributed to the conditions that may have led to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pair are working to have bullshit Fauci-commissioned scientific papers retracted.

Dr. Marty Makary – early Fauci Skeptic picked by Trump to lead the FDA

In Thank You, Dr. Fauci, Makary notes how he became a Fauci skeptic “during the Ebola epidemic,” after Fauci “transferred a nurse in Dallas with Ebola to the NIH clinical center in Washington DC, and then Dr. Fauci puts on an astronaut suit and walks in with a photographer for a photo opportunity.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868516305080557588

“The media parroted whatever Fauci and the CDC fed them, just as they did when government leaders told them there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, parroting whatever the government told them without asking any questions,” Makary told the House Select Subcommittee on the Covid Pandemic on May 11, 2023.

Makary has been picked by President-elect Donald Trump as the next commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Should he be confirmed, he will report to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – should Kennedy also be confirmed as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services.

David Asher – former State Department Investigator

David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and bioweapons expert, led the U.S. State Department’s investigation into the origins of COVID-19 during the Trump administration. His inquiry focused on the possibility that the virus originated from a laboratory incident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China.

Asher’s investigation examined the WIV’s research activities, including gain-of-function experiments that enhance a virus’s transmissibility or virulence. He raised concerns about the safety protocols at the WIV and the potential for an accidental release of the virus. Asher also highlighted the Chinese government’s lack of transparency and cooperation in investigating the pandemic’s origins.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868516305080557588

Andrew Huff – at the center of EcoHealth

Dr. Andrew Huff is a whistleblower who worked for EcoHealth Alliance who we’ve covered multiple times over the past few years. According to Huff, a former VP at EcoHealth – his former employer helped the Wuhan lab put together the “best existing methods to engineer bat coronaviruses to attack other species” for many years.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868516308599574625

“China knew from day one that this was a genetically engineered agent. The US government is to blame for the transfer of dangerous biotechnology to the Chinese,” Huff wrote in his book, The Truth About Wuhan.”

Charles Rixey and Lt. Col. Joseph Murphy: The Whistleblowers

The film gives significant attention to Charles Rixey of the DRASTIC research group and Lt. Col. Joseph Murphy, both of whom uncovered critical evidence supporting the lab-leak hypothesis. Their work reveals how government agencies and scientific organizations may have suppressed key information about the pandemic’s origins. The inclusion of leaked documents, coupled with their firsthand accounts, adds weight to the film’s argument that a full reckoning of the pandemic’s roots is overdue.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868516311858651409

Adam Andrzejewski: RIP

A crusader for government transparency, Andrzejewski – founder of OpenTheBooks.com filed several Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests which revealed Fauci’s exorbitant $450,000 per year salary and several other damning details related to the pandemic. Andrzejewski passed away unexpectedly in August at the age of 55 right before he was set to testify against Fauci.

Dr. Robert Redfield: A Key Figure in the COVID-19 Accountability Movement

Dr. Robert Redfield, the former Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), emerges as a critical voice in Thank You Dr. Fauci – noting how he was shut out of Fauci’s conclave of pandemic advisors despite his position.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868523143884910691

The Trump Administration and a New Era of Accountability

As Thank You, Dr. Fauci gains traction, the Trump administration’s return to power positions figures like Senator Rand Paul to lead investigations into COVID-19’s origins and alleged coverups. Paul, a vocal critic of Fauci, has promised to subpoena records and hold hearings into gain-of-function research and the suppression of the lab-leak theory.

The documentary becomes particularly relevant in this context, as many of the individuals featured are expected to play active roles in shaping these inquiries. The film’s message aligns with the incoming administration’s focus on challenging the so-called “Deep State” and holding public health officials accountable.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868523147219304678

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Mitch McConnell has threatened RFK Jr. on polio vaccine & this raises serious questions as to what RINO ‘anti-Trump’ McConnell meant! Please comment; “Anyone seeking the Senate’s consent to serve in

the incoming (Trump) Administration would do well to steer clear of even the appearance of association with such efforts,” McConnell said in a statement”;

Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 17

READ IN APP

What should RFK Jr. do or say? IMO Robert Kennedy Jr. MUST stick to his morals! To step back up to the podium and to openly question (as he rightly did across) the OWS and its harms and the deadly Malone et al. mRNA gene vaccine.

This is my view. I did work with Siri across time, presented with him several times and he is a legitimate advocate, a real solider.

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

This will be very interesting. It appears that McConnell is putting the pharma CORRUPTED muscle on Kennedy Jr. What say you?

Mitch McConnell warns RFK Jr. against effort to undermine polio vaccines – CBS News

‘The Times article focused in large part on the work of attorney Aaron Siri for the nonprofit Informed Consent Action Network, or ICAN, which petitioned the Food and Drug Administration in 2022 “demanding that the FDA suspend or withdraw approval” of Sanofi Pasteur’s inactivated polio vaccine, called IPOL.

Siri has been acting as an adviser to the transition team for Kennedy, who, if confirmed by the Senate, would oversee the FDA and the nation’s other public health agencies.

Siri called the Times article a “hit piece” that did not engage with the substance of the “legitimate” concern at the center of the petition he filed for ICAN.

“ICAN’s petition, filed in 2022, makes the reasonable request that the FDA, as required by federal law, require a proper clinical trial for IPOL prior to licensure,” Siri posted on X.’

END

EVOLS NEWS

[VIDEO] – DHS Secretary suggests people are seeing mystery drones because FAA changed the rules – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

DC Server Fired After Saying She Will Refuse to Serve Trump Officials, Republicans – EVOLRead more…Trump Brings Back Longtime Congressional Ally for Key Advisory Role – EVOLRead more…Trump Sends Touching Letter to Girl Fighting Leukemia — And Her Reaction Is Priceless – EVOLRead more…New Theory: NJ Drone Sightings May Be ‘Nuclear Sniffers’ Following Elevated NYC Radiation Levels – EVOLRead more…Biden Admin Official Offers Reason for Mystery Drone Sightings – EVOLRead more…Apple’s secret plans for thinner, foldable iPhones – EVOLRead more…Trump Responds to Biden’s Border Wall Sale: ‘Must Be Stopped’ – EVOLRead more…Police Arrest 2 Men Accused of ‘Hazardous Drone Operation’ – EVOLRead more…

SLAY NEWS

Top Expert Sounds Alarm: ‘Parents Poisoned Their Children’ with ‘Vaccines’A former top government official has warned the public that the vast majority of parents have “systematically poisoned their children” by injecting them with “vaccines.”READ MORE

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Democrat Chicago Mayor Blasts ‘Evilness’ of Trump’s Plan to Deport Illegal AliensChicago’s Democrat Mayor Brandon Johnson has lashed out at the “evilness” of President Donald Trump’s plan to deport illegal aliens.READ MORE

DNC Official: Kamala Harris Has Left Democrats with ‘Stench of Losers’ After Election DefeatA Democratic National Committee (DNC) official has revealed that the Democrats have been left with the “stench of losers” after Kamala Harris’s crushing election defeat.READ MORE

D.C Restaurant Fires Worker for Vowing to Refuse Service to Trump OfficialsA leftist Washington D.C. restaurant worker has been fired after she vowed to refuse service to officials serving in President Donald Trump’s administration.READ MORE

Texas Official Exposes Reason Behind Biden’s Push to Sell Off Border Wall SuppliesA Texas official has revealed the real reason behind President Joe Biden’s move to sell off materials and supplies for the unfinished security wall along the Southern Border.READ MORE

Ex-CIA Chief Endorses Tulsi Gabbard for DNI ConfirmationSeveral of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet and advisor selections have faced extreme resistance from the Washington D.C. establishment and corporate media.READ MORE

Biden Tells Kamala Harris ‘You’re Not Going Anywhere’ After Losing to TrumpAmid speculation about Kamala Harris’s political future after she lost the presidential election, President Joe Biden told his VP that she’s “not going anywhere.”READ MORE

Supreme Court to Hear Case Against California’s Stricter Vehicle Emissions RegulationsThe Supreme Court has agreed to weigh in on a significant case regarding California’s stricter vehicle emissions standards, which go against federal regulations.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

a must read…

Trump’s Return To The World Stage Is Already Claiming Numerous Victims

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 11:25 AM

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Trump’s return to the world stage – even though his official inauguration is on January 20 – is already claiming numerous victims. Arguably, even the fall of both the French and German government in recent months have been given some impetus by the political events in the US. But one of the clearest victims appears to be Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned yesterday, citing differences with PM Trudeau’s Cabinet over how to prepare for a looming trade war with its big neighbour. Observers say her comments in her resignation letter on “eschewing political gimmicks” likely refer to the temporary tax cuts and pay-checks planned by the government to support consumption. She sees handing out money as fiscally imprudent. Given that she announced her decision just hours before she was due to speak in Parliament on the fiscal and economic outlook, markets reacted with a fall in the Canadian dollar (depreciating some 0.4% vis-à-vis the US dollar) and rising bond yields (some 7bp on the 10y note).

Meanwhile, data this morning showed that UK regular wages increased by 5.2% annually in the three months to October, up from 4.9% previously and surpassing the consensus forecast of 5%. Regular pay growth in the private sector, which is more sensitive to the business cycle and therefore tracked more closely by the Bank of England, even rose to 5.4% during that same period. This significant wage inflation underscores the Bank of England’s dilemma, as economic growth is slowing, as indicated by Friday’s production figures and yesterday’s PMI. Job growth remains weak as well. Vacancies have declined to pre-pandemic levels, while payroll employment stagnant. We remain cautious about the official employment and unemployment data, as even the ONS acknowledges that its current estimates are essentially random. Our base scenario is that the central bank will continue easing in quarterly steps. We expect rates to remain unchanged at Thursday’s meeting and to decrease by 100 basis points over the course of 2025.

Turning back to Europe then, where – to no one’s surprise – German Chancellor Scholz lost yesterday’s confidence vote, putting the country on track for snap elections on February 23. The debate in the run-up to the vote was heated and was first and foremost about the dire state of the economy and the threats from the East (and arguably from the ‘West’ as well). Of course the debate was largely a show for parties to set out their key campaign themes. Scholz said “It’s high time to invest forcefully into our country. […] we must turn the switch and this means now.” Yet one may wonder whether Scholz’ call for more public spending and investment resonated with lawmakers and voters, given that his Cabinet largely failed to do exactly just that under his reign. Indeed, CDU’s Merz responded: “Were you on another planet?” Yet, here too (as well as in France) the core of the issue is whether fiscal policy can and should play a role to support sustainable growth and, if so, how?

As long as this debate is not settled, Europe is likely to remain a playball of the markets, as it has been of late; negative sentiment has driven an wedge between US and European equity prices and has driven Eurodollar near its lowest level since late 2022, when the currency union was still reeling from the energy shock. Indeed, European industry is in a difficult position. Energy-intensive and/or low-added value industries are either closing or moving location to other parts of the world. A renewed decline in the German manufacturing PMI to 42.5 and an eyewatering 41.6 (a fresh cyclical low) in France for December once again drove home that message. The overall Eurozone index stayed put at 45.2, a level normally associated with (mild) recession. 

The manufacturing sector again produced less than a month earlier, and the decline in activity was even the largest so far this year. Production is clearly being scaled back due to declining demand, which is reflected in the subpar inflow of new orders. Especially new export orders continued to decline, and this does not seem to be entirely a Trump effect. Although the fear of import tariffs may make American companies more cautious about placing international orders, the contraction in new orders was less severe than in previous months. The empty order books thus seem more a reflection of the poor competitive position of European industry in the global market. The lower demand and emptying order books are now also forcing more companies to shrink their workforce. According to the purchasing managers’ survey, the number of layoffs has not been this high in the past four years as this month, particularly in Germany and France. However, that sounds worse than it is: the number of job losses is still quite limited. As far as companies were still “hoarding” staff after the earlier experience with staff shortages around the Covid pandemic, some of these layoffs will be a ‘rationalization’ of the number of employees. After all, keeping more employees than necessary is not cheap.

Moreover, structural and cyclical issues are often mixed up and it seems fair to say that US industry isn’t in a great state either. For example, the US manufacturing PMI for December also fell decisively below the boom-bust mark of 50. At 48.4 it is more or less the same level as the November-reading for the much longer-running ISM manufacturing index. In statistical terms the European and US manufacturing indices are actually not very different right now, the normalized difference  is currently less than 0.5 standard-deviations (to the disadvantage of the Eurozone). 

Meanwhile, the Eurozone Services PMI data seemed to confirm what we have been saying for some time, namely that these indices tend to paint too-negative picture of economic activity in the autumn, only to paint too-positive a picture during the spring. This is a ‘seasonal pattern’ where the services sector PMI peaks around mid-year and then weakens between July and November/December appears to have slipped in since 2021 (when the world was slowly recovering from the pandemic). In any case, the December readings were better than the consensus estimate, and this compensated for the weakness in industry, even though the overall picture remains one of (very) moderate growth of activity.

Despite the sluggish activity, respondents of the PMI survey report higher costs and selling prices once again. Prices are no longer rising as sharply as in 2022, but companies have increased their selling prices for the third consecutive month. This price pressure remains particularly problematic in the services sector, suggesting that costs are largely related to salaries.

This underscores the challenge for the European Central Bank once again. Just last week, President Lagarde stated that domestically-driven inflation remains high. This measure of inflation, which tries to exclude the effects of imports, was still 4.2% in October. This inflation is closely related to services inflation and labor costs, which are also decreasing very slowly. The ECB still assumes that the high wage increases and high services inflation are the result of the high inflation in recent years, leading to higher collective labor agreements now. The ECB expects this to decrease next year. The PMI survey did not provide reassurance in this regard yesterday.

end

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Slump By 11% In Two Months

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 03:45 PM

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

Russian crude oil exports by sea have dropped by 11% from a recent high in October, due to maintenance at the Baltic port of Primorsk, pressure for Russia to align with its OPEC+ quota, and increased sanctions pressure.

In the four weeks to December 15, Russia’s seaborne crude exports averaged 3.06 million barrels per day (bpd), tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.

That’s 11% lower compared to a recent peak of a four-week average volume of 3.46 million bpd in early October, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.

In the most recent week to December 15, observed Russian crude oil exports from Primorsk have slumped as the port saw a halt of four days in departures, according to data from port agents seen by Bloomberg. The partial halt to the loading program suggests that there has been either maintenance work on the loading terminal or the pipeline that serves it, according to Bloomberg.

Apart from physical disruption to loadings, Russian crude oil exports have fallen as Moscow has been under increased pressure to fall in line with its OPEC+ quota as part of the group that looks to support oil prices.

Moreover, the UK and the EU have ramped up sanctions on the so-called shadow fleet used by Russia to ship its crude oil and petroleum products.

At the end of November, the UK sanctioned as many as 30 tankers identified as belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet that circumvents the Western oil sanctions, in its single largest sanctions package aimed at Russia’s dark fleet and at stifling Putin’s oil revenues.

The EU on Monday adopted the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, which targets 52 new vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet, increasing the total number of such listings to 79. These non-EU vessels are subject to a port access ban and a ban on provision of services.

Moreover, the Biden administration is said to be mulling over additional sanctions against Russia’s oil industry ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

Canada in trouble; dollar collapses!

“You’re DONE!”: Trudeau Mercilessly Heckled As Government Implodes

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 11:05 AM

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was mercilessly heckled on Monday after a Liberal Party fundraiser at the Canadian Museum of History, as his administration teeters on the verge of collapse.

“You failed Canada,” shouted conservative commentator ‘Right Blend,’ as Trudeau grinned like an idiot.

“You’ve ruined our country! You’re done! Walk away, you don’t have an ounce of your father’s integrity…”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868807689972990461

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868867986905612408

The epic heckle comes one day after Trudeau’s trusted deputy, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, went scorched earth in a Monday resignation letter that left Trudeau in an even more precarious position.

Freeland has publicly opposed a plan by Trudeau for short-term spending on voter-pleasing measures such as tax breaks that will worsen the country’s budget deficit.

“Our country today faces a grave challenge,” Freeland, 56, wrote in her letter – referring to US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs.

“That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.”

https://twitter.com/cafreeland/status/1868659332285702167

The timing of Freeland’s letter also cannot go unnoticed – posting it to X at 9:07 a.m. in Ottawa, as the city’s political district prepared to watch her announce the country’s fiscal and economic situation, Bloomberg reports.

Markets were braced for bad news about budget deficits. Freeland’s missive simply deepened doubts about Canada’s fiscal buffers. The Canadian dollar immediately fell and bond yields jumped.

Trudeau stayed out of public view [until his heckling!]. He held a cabinet meeting with his stunned ministers, while government officials in a nearby building wondered what to do with advance copies of the statement Freeland was meant to deliver after financial markets closed, around 4 p.m. Ottawa time.

Confusion reigned. Civil servants drew black cloths over the documents while many reporters abandoned the briefing room. Trudeau skipped question period in the House of Commons and said nothing publicly. Later, he briefly appeared on-camera at a ceremony to swear in Dominic LeBlanc as Freeland’s replacement.

Trump slammed Freeland’s post – calling her “toxic,” and “not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada. She will not be missed!!!”

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113666067546631826/embed

The instability of Trudeau’s government means that Canada is totally unprepared for whatever tariffs Trump may bring.

““We know that President Trump is coming in office on the 20th of January,” said Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne in a statement to reporters Monday evening. “We owe it to Canadians, we owe it to our families and to our friends and everyone in Canada, to be the best prepared.”

Meanwhile, this isn’t the first time Trudeau has come under fire from voters…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868821582237646931

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0492 DOWN 25 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 153.88 DOWN 0.209 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2703 UP .0013

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4288 UP 0.053 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 53 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 24.85 PTS OR 0.73%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 95.01 OR 0.48%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.76%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT FRANCE

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT FRANCE

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 95.01 PTS OR 0.48%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.85 PTS OR 0.73%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.76%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 92.81 PTS OR 0.24%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2644.00

silver:$30.30

USA dollar index early TUESDAY  morning: 106.67 UP 12 BASIS POINTS FROM  MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.726% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.075% UP 2 AND 0/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.924 UP 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.383 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.227 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0505 DOWN .0011 OR 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 153.60 DOWN 0.477 OR YEN IS UP 48 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.596 UP 11 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0060 OR 60 BASIS pts  to 1.4298

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.2918 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2924)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.075

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 0 in basis points from FRIDAY at  4.400% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.596 DOWN 0 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.237 UP 1  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2635.15

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.24

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 66.85 PTS OR 0.81%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 67.44 OR 0.33%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 52.49 PTS OR 0.71%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 190.50 OR 1.62%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 425.01 OR 1.22%

WTI Oil price  69.66 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  72.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  103.60 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  0/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2270 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5570 UP 11 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.257 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.981 UP 1 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0489 DOWN 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2709 UP 0.0019 OR 19 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.520 UP 9 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.071

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153.43 DOWN 0.666 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4310 UP 0.0076 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 76 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.23

Brent OIL:  73.31

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS pts to 4.4000

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.588%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 0 PTS AT  4.243

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.175 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.981 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 106.67 UP 12 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.99 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  104.60 DOWN 1 AND  0/100 roubles

GOLD  2,646.50 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.51 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 266.93 PTS OR 0.61%

NASDAQ DOWN 95.57 PTS OR 0.43%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.61 UP 0.92 PTS OR 6.26%

GLD: $244,01 DOWN 0.81 OR 0.36%

SLV/ $27.81 UP 0.01 OR 0.036%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 27,86 PTS OR 0.11%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING

Big-Tech’s Pain Is Bitcoin’s Gain; Goldman Warns ‘Seasonal Gift Of Low Vol Increases Jan Reversal Risk’

MORNING TRADING/

END

II USA DATA

We have been telling this to you constantly. The jobs data is a fake

(zerohedge)

Biden Lied About Everything: Philly Fed Finds All Jobs “Created” In Q2 Were Fake

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 05:00 PM

Back in August, many were surprised by the accuracy of our forecast, when we predicted that in its annual revision, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics would revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by “up to 1 million”, something which we said would mean that all job report “beats” recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US labor market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1825248254893953351

The final results, as everyone knows by now, was a shocking 818K revision lower, just as the Philadelphia Fed had predicted 6 months prior, when it calculated correctly that the Biden Department of Goalseeking Propaganda had overstated payrolls by at least 800,000.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1773436179498598623

The answer ended up 818,000 for the 12 month period ended March 31 (or about 68,000 per month) and the implied sharp deterioration to the job market was the main scapegoat used by the Fed to launch its easing cycle with a jumbo 50bps rate cut (now that “suddenly” the economic golden age pushed by the Biden propaganda regime, and trillions in debt, had just collapsed).

We mention all of this up because on Friday, the Philly Fed served up its latest shocker: not only did the Biden admin lie again, but the collapse in the labor market that had been covered up for much of the past year and was only exposed with the annual benchmark revision, extended into the second quarter.

“Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2024 were significantly different” – read lower – “in 27 states compared with preliminary state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES)”, the Philly Fed said on December 12.

“According to the early benchmark (EB) estimates conducted by the Phily Fed, employment was lower in 25 states, higher in two states, and lesser changes in the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia.”

Translation: 23 states unchanged, 1 revised higher…  and 25 lower. The breakdown is shown below.

Maybe someone can calculate what the odds of that distribution occurring naturally are, but here is our guess: virtually nil. Which is why would make such a loud stink every month after the Biden BLS revised jobs data lower month after month after month. The whole point was to make the labor market appear stronger than it was, then to gradually revised it all away. And now the Philadelphia Fed confirms – again – that we were right all along.

And so, after it first revised the 12 months ending March 31 by 818K, the downgrads extended into the second quarter of 2024, when the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark estimates showed that instead of the 1.1% gain shown initially by the BLS, payroll jobs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia were actually down 0.1%!

By state, the regional Fed bank estimates that largest revision of employment for the nine-month period ended in June will come from California, where it sees a downward revision of 172,700 jobs. Payrolls in Texas may be revised down by 112,100. An extended forecast by the BLS to the third quarter show further declines as well.

And while we don’t yet know the specifics of the revisions – those will be revealed on Feb 7, 2025 when the final numbers are published – at the national level, we do know that all the jobs reportedly “created” in the second quarter, were actually fake, there were no net jobs created at all, and in fact, the US lost jobs in Q2!

Translation: in his latest attempt to create an impression of economic growth, Biden lied about everything, again.

end

US Industrial Production Tumbled For The 3rd Straight Month As Capacity Utilization Craters

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 09:27 AM

US Industrial Production tumbled for the third straight month in November (and 4th of the last 5). The 0.1% MoM decline (vs +0.3% exp) – following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop the month prior – dragged production down 0.9% YoY (the worst drop since January)…

Source: Bloomberg

Factory Orders rose 0.2% MoM – after a downwardly revised 0.7% slide a month earlier – (considerably weaker than the +0.5% MoM expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Transportation, the picture was a little more rosy with core factory orders up a modest 0.13% MoM rise lifting YoY production by 1.13%…

Source: Bloomberg

Output at utilities fell by the most in four months, while mining posted the largest decline since May.

Finally, capacity utilization fell to 76.8% (the lowest since April 2021) and well below expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

…but, but, but it’s not a recession!

end

I would not read much into this data on retail spending

(zerohedge)

Surging Car Sales Spark Upside Surprise For Retail Spending In November

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024 – 08:39 AM

BofA’s omniscient forecasters were – for a change – more or less in line with consensus for retail sales in November…

The actual print was mixed with the headline retail sales rising 0.7% MoM (hotter than expected), while core retail sales disappointed. The headline beat pushed sales up 3.8% YoY – the highest since Dec 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Motor Vehicle & Parts were the biggest driver of the upside surprise…

Sales were also helped by online retailers…

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers sales surged for the second month to a new record high…

The key ‘Control Group’ saw sales rise 0.4% MoM (as expected) providing support for GDP…

Source: Bloomberg

BofA notes that the robust spending that we saw around Thanksgiving continued through Cyber Monday week.

We can’t learn much from year-over-year growth rates, since they were heavily impacted by the calendar shift. Therefore, we compare spending to the analogous period in 2023.

We find that spending on holiday items in the two weeks ending Dec 7 in 2024 was 6.1% higher than in the two weeks ending the Saturday after Cyber Monday in 2023.

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is ‘nominal’ so a quick sleight of hand using CPI data as a rough indication of inflation and we see that in fact, real retail sales have basically oscillated around the flatline for the last 30-months-plus…

Source: Bloomberg

So another data point for The Fed that clearly signals no need for rate-cuts! Does this look like an economy dealing with ‘restrictive’ rates?

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

VDH…

VDH: Are The Years Of Madness Ending?

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Never in U.S. history has a president-elect been welcomed as the real president before his January 20 inauguration.

And never has the incumbent president so willingly surrendered his last two months in office and all but abdicated—to the relief of his nation and the rest of the world.

One reason so many are welcoming Trump’s return is the universally desperate hope that his election spelled an end to a collective madness at home and its ripples abroad during the last four years. And why not?

Nations overseas had never quite witnessed anything like the lethal August 2021 American flight from Afghanistan.

That utter humiliation and impotence of the U.S. military likely signaled to Russia there would be no consequences if it invaded Ukraine—and it did; to Iran that it could now unleash Hamas and Hezbollah on Israel—and it did; and to China that it could daily threaten Taiwan and send a spy balloon across the United States with impunity—and it did.

The result was the current global chaos perhaps not seen since the late 1930s when a confused United States was similarly a bystander to the rise of bellicose regimes and wars. The Biden administration shrugged that the Red Sea, the Black Sea, the South China Sea, the Straits of Hormuz, and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea all became dangerous to the U.S. Navy and unsafe to world shipping.

A disparate group of nuclear and near-nuclear powers—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—are either at war with Western allies or threatening war with them. Their confidence was predicated on the assumption that the U.S. after 2020 was engaged in a Maoist-like cultural revolution that warred on its own security, energy, military, universities, and social unity—and would continue with a second Biden term.

The Biden-era cultural revolution has done great damage to the United States. The U.S. border was systematically and deliberately destroyed to allow some 10-12 million illegal entrants to pour into the U.S. without legality or background checks. Never has an outgoing administration spitefully sold taxpayer-purchased border wall material for pennies on the dollar—rather than see it used for the purposes for which it was purchased.

Never had the U.S. experienced such an immigrant surge. And never had more than 50 million, and over 15 percent of the resident American population been foreign-born.

Why did Biden and Alejandro Mayorkas erase the border? What madness and hate drove them to dismantle federal immigration law? Was it sheer nihilism? Or a desperate but calculated effort to alter American demography for political purposes?

For four years, the public, elected officials, and pundits have all warned that Joe Biden was dangerously cognitively challenged and indeed completely unfit to fulfill the duties of the presidency.

A long-suffering nation winced as Biden slurred his words, spoke in unintelligible sound bites, stood frozen and mute, screamed at and libeled half the country, tripped, fell, wandered aimlessly, became bewildered, and more or less proved a global embarrassment. All knew Biden was not able to run the country; yet none knew exactly who was actually in charge of America in his stead. The Obamas? Leftists like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, the Squad, Jill Biden, and the Biden staff?

Our allies worried that the usually resilient American president was now all but demented. Our enemies enjoyed these leaderless years of opportunity. And the left serially misled the public that the decrepit Biden, whom they feared in private was senile, was “dynamic,” “energic,” and “fit as a fiddle.”

Never has a president so deserved to be removed by the 25th Amendment or through impeachment and conviction. And never has even his inner circle finally but silently agreed as they left office, the very enablers who had done their political best to mask his dementia for four long years.

Never has the justice system, from local to state to national jurisdictions, so systematically and coordinately, sought to bankrupt, render inert, and jail an ex-president and current presidential candidate.

Rarely have the FBI, the CIA, the IRS, the Department of Justice, and the Pentagon become weaponized and so flagrantly and with impunity broken the law, abandoned their mission statements, and served political agendas rather than the American people. Not since the J. Edgar Hoover era has the FBI hierarchy serially lied under oath, stonewalled Congress, forged a court affidavit, or partnered with the media to suppress the news. Has the FBI ever raided an ex-president’s home, spied on parents at school board meetings, monitored Catholics, or tried to terrify and harass pro-life activists?

Never has a presidential family so brazenly profited by selling its influence to foreign interests. Never has it used the powers of the FBI and DOJ to cover up its crimes and to ensure the family filial bagman would be for years exempted by the DOJ and later pardoned by the president himself, the father of the family miscreant and privy to the family syndicate’s illegal activities.

Seldom has a president and his administration sought to fuel a veritable cultural revolution to change the fabric of the nation by institutionalizing a third, transexual gender, violating civil rights law, and systematically admitting, hiring, and promoting Americans on the basis of their race and gender.

Never since the Civil War era had local and state insurrectionist governments established 600 nullification zones, in which they vowed to break federal law and consider it null and void within their jurisdictions. Never have rioters looted, burned, killed, assaulted, and occupied large swaths of cities for over 120 days, and largely with impunity.

Never had the U.S. Treasury borrowed so much money so quickly and owed $37 in national debt—and been so intent on borrowing continuously nearly $2 trillion a year in annual deficits.

Never has a political party sought to systematically violate long-standing traditions, customs, and often the law itself to destroy a political opponent: hiring a foreign national to spread smears among the media and bureaucracies, impeaching a president twice, trying an ex-president in the Senate, seeking to remove a presidential candidate from 16 state ballots, using five different judicial jurisdictions to try an ex-president, and serially so defaming a candidate and ex-president as a dictator, fascist, and Nazi to create a climate that encouraged two near-miss assassination attempts on him.

In sum, for the last four years, the world has watched aghast as the United States lost its collective mind and became a radical Jacobin revolutionary society.

So why is there not a sense of almost ecstatic relief, not just among conservatives but even among Democrats, that the years of darkness and madness are ending?

The global public believes that the United States will again become lawful, have a secure border, return as a beacon of free-market economics, protect its allies, deter its enemies, win over its neutrals, return to the rule of law, restore the professionalism and prestige of its government agencies, check predatory nations abroad with a new deterrent military, and prepare to lead the world in energy production, exploration of space, and scientific and technology development.

Summed up, the welcomed counterrevolution is one of restoration—to dream again that nothing is impossible, and the dreary age of stasis, envy, cynicism, and nihilism is ending, replaced again by a world without limits. No one knows quite what is ahead, but all know that it is at least better already than the current nightmare.

END

TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING

KING REPORT

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Judge is deeply conflicted

(zerohedge)

“Deeply Conflicted” Judge Rules Trump Doesn’t Have Immunity In New York ‘Hush Money’ Case

Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 07:43 PM

President-elect Donald Trump does not have immunity in the so-called “hush money” case in New York, Judge Juan Merchan ruled in a decision on Dec. 16.

The conduct described by the 34 felony counts of which Trump was convicted earlier this year is related “entirely to unofficial conduct entitled to no immunity protections,” Merchan wrote.

As Joseph Lord reports for The Epoch Times, the decision, coming in the wake of Trump’s sweeping victory in the 2024 presidential election, is tied to a U.S. Supreme Court decision earlier this year that reaffirmed the longstanding precedent that official presidential conduct enjoys “presumptive immunity” from criminal prosecution.

The Supreme Court’s decision forced Merchan to determine whether the charges were presumptively immune under the law.

Trump’s attorneys contended that New York prosecutors introduced evidence during his seven-week trial that was protected by the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity doctrine.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) urged the judge to reject Trump’s arguments, arguing that no evidence placed before the jury was protected, and even if it was, it paled in comparison to “other overwhelming evidence of defendant’s guilt.”

Merchan agreed, finding that none of the challenged evidence was protected.

Even if immunity did extend to the evidence in question, Merchan wrote he “would still find that the People’s use of these acts as evidence of the decidedly personal acts of falsifying business records poses no danger of intrusion on the authority and function of the Executive Branch, a conclusion amply supported by non-motive-related evidence.”

The Hill reports that Trump has separately argued that his White House victory compels the dismissal of the jury’s verdict and the case in its entirety.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) has pushed back, instead laying out alternatives like freezing the proceedings during Trump’s term.

The judge has yet to rule on that matter.

“Today’s decision by deeply conflicted, acting Justice Merchan in the Manhattan DA Witch Hunt is a direct violation of the Supreme Court’s decision on immunity, and other longstanding jurisprudence,” Steven Cheung, Trump’s spokesperson and incoming White House communications director, said in a statement.

In a separate letter, Merchan revealed that Trump also sent a Dec. 3 letter alleging juror misconduct. The judge provided sparse details but indicated the issue would be made public with redactions.

GREG HUNTER

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY