GOLD PRICE DOWN $45 TO $2595.00

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.25 TO $29.02

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2596.10

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.06

Bitcoin morning price:$103,600 UP 610 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,839 down 6151 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN $8.45 TO $924.35

Palladium price; DOWN $20.30 TO $909.50

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3736.77 DOWN 10.12 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2071.12 UP 10.20 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,505.20 UP 4.96 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)

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EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,636.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/18/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/20/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

072 H GOLDMAN 382
190 H BMO CAPITAL 23
323 C HSBC 21
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 43
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 384
523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
661 C JP MORGAN 28 11
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 12
905 C ADM 7

---

TOTAL: 462 462

JPMorgan stopped 11/462

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 462 NOTICES FOR 46,200 OZ  1.4370 TONNES

total notices so far: 24,277 contracts for 2,427,700 Oz (75.511 tonnes)

FOR  DEC

SILVER NOTICES: 193 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.965 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 8967 for 44.835 million oz

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.25 AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 457.414 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 401 CONTRACTS TO 147,339 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0,19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 466 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS  IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THE RAID WAS CALLED UPON AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS. THEY SUCCEEDED QUITE A BIT WITH //WEDNESDAY PRICING BUT FAILED TO KNOCK OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS.

WE HAD A  SMALL 65 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD 361 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THURSDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 466 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY’S COMEX SESSION AND ACCESS TRADING. LAST MONDAY MORNING WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF .5000 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/ THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .66 MILLION OZ/NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS FOR THE MONTH: 1.16 MILLION OZ.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A GOOD 361 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER FLAT (IT FELL BY $0.19) BUT WERE BASICALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A JUST A GOOD GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 438 OI. CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A SMALL 65 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK , TOTALLING 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE 179 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.895 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.

// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 45.135 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 46.295 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 361 CONTRACTS)/ TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: added 28 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 DAYS, total 24,165 contracts:   OR 120.825 MILLION OZ  (1726 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  120.825 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 120.825 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE/ WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ)

RESULT: WE HAD AN GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 401  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 65 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  40.435 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.895 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR EQUALS 46.295 MILLION OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 46.295 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 466 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD 361 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION + ACCESS. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON WEDNESDAY

/ LITTLE NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT   (361) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, AND CERTAINLY TODAY.

WE HAD 193 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.965 MILLION OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4695 OI CONTRACTS  TO 461,876 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A SMALL SIZED 376 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (4695 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR  LOSS OF $8.40 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 57.284 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 407 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 40700 OZ ( 1.266 TONNES). WE MUST NOW ADD 10.6406 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON 5 OCCASIONS IN THIS ACTIVE DECEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.

/NEW STANDING 88.3856 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR   $8.40 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 469 OI CONTRACTS (1.458 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 407 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (40,700 OZ)  ALONG WITH THE 10.6406 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH //NEW TOTAL TONNES OF DELIVERY: 88.3856

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5164 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 461,876

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 469 CONTRACTS  WITH 4695 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5164 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 469 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1163 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A STRONG LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5164 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 4695 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 469 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.117 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S HJUGE 40,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 5 PRIOR OCCASIONS OF 10.6406 TONNES//NEW STANDING 88.3856 TONNES

//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 88.3856 TONNES

 / 3) STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE  WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SUCCESS IN REMOVING SPECULATOR LONGS, AS DESPITE OUR $6.85 PRICE LOSS, WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. HOWEVER, STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1163 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///407 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 40,700 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

DEC

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 96,457 CONTRACTS OF 9,645,700 OZ OR 300.02 TONNES IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6889 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  300.02 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  300.02 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 8.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 300.02 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an exchange for physical issuance for this month/maybe this time we will surpass March 2022 record of 409 tonnes for the month)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 401 CONTRACTS OI  TO 147,339 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 65 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 65 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 65 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 401   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 65 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 466 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS A GOOD 2.33 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.19 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.17 PTS OR 0.36%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 112.04 PTS OR 0.56%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 268.17 OR 0.69%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.68%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3124 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3127// Oil DOWN TO 70.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.12 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4695 CONTRACTS TO 461,876 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.40 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. , WE SURPRISINGLY LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD AS WE HAD, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5164). THUS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 469 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED MONSTER RAID AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE WESNESDAY ATTACK AND AGAIN OFFERED A THANK YOU NOTE TO THE FED FOR THEIR WONDERFUL LARGESSE. THE LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD CONTINUED HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS  202, AND 203 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD LIKE THESE PAST 4 DAYS OF RAIDS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING CONTINUING ON THIS WEEK.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 5164 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  5164 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5164 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 469 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5164 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD LOSS OF 4695 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR   LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.40 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1163 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE NOVEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE FIRST WEEK AND A HALF OF DECEMBER BUT THAT DRAMATICALLY CHANGED WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY WITH TUESDAY’S COMEX RAID AND IT CONTINUED ON WITH YESTERDAY’S (WEDNESDAY) TRADING AS WELL.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   DEC (88.3856 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 77.745 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 10.6406 TONNES EQUALS 88.3856 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $8.40/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THURSDAY MORNING), AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING.

19 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THE MONTH NOW TOTALS 10.6406 TONNES. NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 1.458 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 40,700 OZ OR 1.266 TONNES, TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL OF 10.6406 TONNES. THUS TAKEN TOGETHER,, THE TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER IS:

77.745 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) +

10.6406 TONNES (EX FOR RISK)

EQUALS: 88.3856 TONNES

/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 88.3856 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 88.3856 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $6.85

WE HAD 376 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 469 CONTRACTS OR 46,900 (1.458 TONNES)

confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 168,297 contracts: very weak //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A LITTLE LESSER EXTENT.

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

DEC 19

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	nil           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	6,430.200 OZ (200 KILOBARS) a)BRINKS oz 200 kilobars 200 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today	462 notice(s) 46,200 OZ 1.4370 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	718 contracts    71800 OZ 2.233 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	24,277 notices 2,427,700 oz 75.511 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we have 1 customer deposit

i) Into BRINKS 6,430.200 oz (200 kilobars)

total deposits 6430.200.000 oz  200 kilobars

strictly a paper gold entry.

withdrawals: 0

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: oz

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.

For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1180 contracts having LOST 247 contracts. We had A HUGE 654 contracts served on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED a HUGE 407 contracts or 40,700 oz (1.266 TONNES) underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.

JANUARY GAINED 177 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 4198

FEBRUARY LOST 4066 CONTRACTS TO 342,914 .

We had 462 contracts filed for today representing 46,200 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 28 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 462 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 11 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,277 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC(1180 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (462 x 100 oz per contract( equals  2,499,500OZ  OR 77.745 TONNES. to which we add 10.6406 tonnes of exchange for risk WHICH EQUALS 88,3856 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:  No of notices filed so far (24,277 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC  (1180 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (462 x 100 oz which equals  2,499,500 oz (77.745 TONNES)  + 10.6406 tonnes of ex. for risk MONTH OF DEC //new total GOLD STANDING 88.3856 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 88.3856 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2292,357.555  oz 65.06 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,266,378.168 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,535,302.134/// 265.48 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,771,076.034 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,442,945 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 200.40 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/1,877,000 oz = 19.15% of entire inventory..

END

SILVER/COMEX

DEC 19. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE DEC 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	NIL OZ .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,781.821.800 oz Loomis ASAHI Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)	193 CONTRACT(S)    (965,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	60 contracts  (0.300 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	8967 Contracts  (44.835 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  3 customer deposits

a) Into Loomis: 598,445.180 oz

b) Into Asahi: 604,402.000 oz

c) Into Manfra: 578,974.700 oz

total customer deposit 1,781,821.800oz

We had 0 withdrawals

total withdrawal nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.000million oz/312.399million  or 43.21%

adjustments 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 78.078MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 312.399 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 253 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 73 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

252 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE HAD A HUGE 179 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP I.E. 895,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 98 CONTRACTS UP TO 2284

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 25 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 206

MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 71 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 118,170

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 193 for 965,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 53,071 good// HUGE, t.a.s. enhanced

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8967x 5,000 oz = 44.835 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (253) and the number of notices served upon today (193)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month:  8967 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(253) minus number of notices served upon today (193)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 45.135 MILLION OZ. + to which we add 1.16 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR////new total 46.295 MILLION OIOZ

 New total standing: 46.295 million oz.

There are 78.078 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

DEC  19  WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

DEC  18  WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  17  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  16  WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

 DEC  13  WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES

DEC  12  WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

 DEC  11  WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES

 DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

 NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE

 NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES

NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES

NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES

NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES

NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES

NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES

NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES

NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES

NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE

NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES

NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 863.90 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ

DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ

DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ

DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ

DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ

NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ

NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ

NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ

NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ 

NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ

NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ

NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ

NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 457.414 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

Peter Schiff: World’s Central Banks Are Starting Inflation Again

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

On the latest episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter dives into a week of new inflation data. He calls out the shaky foundations of the so-called “strong” economy, criticizes foreign central bank policy, and explains how inflation masks the benefits of economic growth.

To start, Peter reports alarming deficit numbers for the 2025 fiscal year:

During the first two fiscal months of 2025, because we’re already in that fiscal year, the budget deficit in those two months alone was six hundred and twenty four billion dollars. That’s a 65% increase over the same two months a year ago. In fact, the first time that the United States government ran a six hundred and twenty four billion dollar deficit for an entire year, not just for two months, but for an entire year, was 2009, right after the 2008 financial crisis.

These figures clash with the official narrative that the economy is doing well. If that’s really the case, why do the American people disagree?

If consumers were in the greatest shape ever, according to this Wall Street analyst, they would have voted for Kamala. They wouldn’t have tried to get rid of her because things are supposedly so awful, and they’re hoping that Trump would change things. … It’s like you’re lying in a hospital bed, plugged into all kinds of artificial life support, tubes in your mouth, tubes in your nose, blood going intravenously into your body, and you ask the doctor, ‘What’s going on?’ ‘You’re in great shape, absolutely perfectly healthy, except if we unplug anything you’re going to drop dead.’

A hotter-than-expected inflation report released on Thursday practically demands rate hikes from the Fed, but the market still predicts the Fed will cut rates at its December meeting:

All these numbers confirm is that inflation is bottoming out and is headed much higher, and it never got anywhere near 2%. Especially if you look at the PPI (Producer Price Index), which is a leading indicator for the CPI, because generally businesses have their prices go up first and then they pass it on to the consumer second. … The expectation for the increase in November producer prices was 0.3%, and we got 0.4%. That was double the increase from the prior month of 0.2%, so we’re heading in the wrong direction fast.

Current predictions place the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates again at over 95%. This is sadly aligned with the inflationary monetary policy being implemented in Europe and the rest of the world:

Yet the Fed is going to cut rates by another 25 basis points. By the way, the ECB (European Central Bank) cut rates 25 basis points this week, and the Swiss National Bank went for a super-sized 50 basis point cut… Inflation is going to rear its head in a big way all over the world: the Eurozone, Japan, all these countries that are cutting rates should not be cutting rates. Inflation is going to roar back stronger than ever, worse than what we had in 2001, 2002. 

Central banks hoodwink their citizens with inflation, obscuring economic progress for the sake of their own policy goals:

Let’s assume that all else being equal the government doesn’t create any inflation and productivity is so good that prices would have fallen by 5. Well, that’s great. That’s a huge economic benefit for the economy. …  Now the government creates inflation and instead of prices going down by 5 percent they go up by 2 percent. Now you’re going to say oh well, there’s no inflation now because now we’re at the fed’s 2 target. No! Prices are 7% higher than they otherwise would have been. We didn’t get all that inflation for free. The government robbed us of that increase in our standard of living. They took away the benefit of those price cuts. 

For more analysis of last week’s economic numbers, check out Joel’s analysis on the SchiffGold Gold Wrap Podcast.

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

Alasdair Macleod

Currency and bond chaos ahead

The Fed’s signal that further interest rates cuts are not a given is roiling currencies and foreign bond markets. This mega-credit bubble is popping…

Alasdair MacleodDec 19∙Paid

First, let’s look at the euro and yen (inverted).

Clearly, these currencies are under pressure from US interest rate policy, which is also reflected in bond yields. Quite why France’s 10-year OAT only yields 3.1% when France is in political turmoil and heading for a 7% budget deficit illustrates how far it is from reality. And as for Japan, with the 10-year JGB yielding only 1.09%, it’s hardly surprising that the yen is plunging.

Both these currencies and their debt markets are getting a nasty wake-up call, not just from the US Fed, but also global bond markets. The yield on the leading supposedly risk-free 10-year US Treasury Note is rising as I have recently forecast:

It recently ticked back to find support on a golden cross and has subsequently risen, with price and the moving averages pointing higher. You can hardly have a clearer signal of its future direction, which is to challenge the 5% level. When or before that happens, the disparity between equity and bond values will lead to an equity bear market, which may have already started.

Given the US debt trap and its faltering economy, it won’t stop there. Yesterday, I posted an alarming chart of the 2017 long sterling gilt, which I repeat here updated for today’s price action:

UK pension funds will have bought this gilt in 2020/2021, when they could have paid £160. Now it is only £41 per £100 of stock. This is signalling a disaster for the UK economy, which is also reflected in sterling’s exchange rate:

This sterling chart is immensely bearish, with a death cross forming above the exchange rate. That it has recently rallied to the 55-day MA before being sent sharply south suggests that foreign exchange traders will short it heavily. More so, given the collapsing gilt market.

Does the average Brit expect this? Despite their grumbling at the damage the Labour government is inflicting on the economy, their disinterest in gold suggests not. But with gold looking ready to rise in dollar terms, it will rise even faster in sterling.

A final word for gold’s naysayers, who think that higher bond yields will be bad for gold. They fail to appreciate that it is not gold rising, but their currency falling. And unless their central bank aggressively raises rates high enough to stabilise their currency, it will continue to decline relative to real legal money, which is gold. But if the Fed, the ECB, the BoE, or the BoJ attempt to raise rates enough to stabilise their fiat currencies, they will bankrupt their governments, businesses, and banking systems. As a deliberate policy, it can be ruled out.

Get out of credit!

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/

END

LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 203

youtube.com/watch?v=5hHeh2mnvXg&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY; cattle

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.17 PTS OR 0.36%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 112.04 PTS OR 0.56%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 268.17 OR 0.69%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.68%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3124 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3127// Oil DOWN TO 70.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.12 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3124

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3127

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 12.17 PTS OR 0.36%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 112.04 PTS OR 0.56%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 268.17 PTS OR 0.69%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  107.70 EURO RISES TO 1.0404 UP 54 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.056 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.88…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2875 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.4587 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.9890

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.148

3j Gold at $2604.45/Silver at: 29.32  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 31/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 103.06

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  73 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.88  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.036% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8956 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9317  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.537 UP 4 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.712 UP 5 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.329 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.08…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6005 UP 4 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.294 UP 7 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.092 UP 4 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Rebound After Powell’s Hawkish Pivot Plunge

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 08:23 AM

US futures staged a partial recovery on Thursday after the worst Fed day rout since the 2013 Taper Tantrum, suggesting the selloff after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot was overdone, even as stock indexes  in Europe and Asia retreated as equity markets caught up with post-Fed moves in the US. As of 8:00am, S&P futures advanced 0.5% following the US benchmark’s biggest lost for a scheduled Fed decision day since 2001. Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.4% even as chip leader Micron crashed 13% on disappointing guidance. 10Y yields rose again, hitting 4.53%, the highest level since May and nearly 100bps higher than the 2024 lows reached in September. The dollar retreated after soaring on Monday even as the yen cratered after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged, disappointing a lot of generally clueless strategists who were expecting a hike. Oil and bitcoin also rebounded after sliding on Wednesday. Key events today include the latest GDP revision, initial and continuing claims, existing home sales as well as the October TIC flows data.

In premarket trading, Micron Technology tumbles 13% after its revenue forecast missed projections, hurt by sluggish demand for smartphones and personal computers. Baidu dropped 2% after Reuters reports that Apple is in talks with Tencent and Bytedance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• IonQ (IONQ) rises 5% as DA Davidson initiates with a buy recommendation, saying the stock “is positioning itself as the leader in quantum computing.”
• Lamb Weston (LW) slides 20% after the French-fry supplier cut its sales and adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Lennar Corp. (LEN) drops 10% after the homebuilder forecast new orders for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) rises 8% after the biotech reached a license agreement with Astellas, under which Sangamo will receive a $20 million upfront license fee.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) falls 12% after the the company’s nonaddictive drug helped patients with lower back pain in a mid-stage trial, but performed similar to a placebo, causing shares to decline.
• Worthington Steel (WS) declines 5% after posting fiscal 2Q revenue that dropped 9% from the year-ago quarter, hurt by lower volumes and selling prices.

The Fed scaled back the number of 2025 cuts it sees from four to two as Powell said future easing would require fresh progress on inflation. The reaction interrupted this year’s stellar rally in US stocks, with S&P 500 still on course to notch more than 20% of gains due to optimism about artificial intelligence and the outlook for the economy under a Donald Trump administration. While the severity of Wednesday’ reaction showed that equity markets were less prepared for the Fed’s announcement, the shift implied that profits could be stronger than anticipated in the near term, said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

“What we have seen is a little cold water poured on what is otherwise a decent economy,” John Bilton, JPMorgan Asset Management’s head of global multi-asset strategy, told Bloomberg TV. “I am constructive about next year. If I’m a bull, I have got to love a healthy pullback.” Money markets are now pricing in fewer than two quarter-point reductions for the entirety of 2025, even less than what was implied in the Fed’s so-called dot plot on Wednesday. In the SOFR options market one large block trade placed Wednesday afternoon bet on the start of another hiking cycle next year.

Elsewhere in central banks, the Norges Bank stood pat while the Riksbank cut their policy rate by 25 bps, both as expected. The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona both held higher on the day. The pound dropped after the Bank of England’s dovish hold.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dropped 1.2% after the surprisingly hawkish Fed messaging sparked the biggest rout in US stocks since early August. Semiconductor stocks fall after Micron Technology posted disappointing revenue forecast. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• SoftwareOne shares rise as much as 13%, while Crayon drops 8.1% after the Swiss firm offers to buy the Norwegian IT services firm for a total of 144 kroner/share.
• Pharming shares gain as much as 11%, the top performer in the Euronext Amsterdam AEX Health Care Index, after RBC analysts boosted their price target on the Dutch biopharma company to a Street high.
• UK Water providers are among best performers in Europe on Thursday as industry regulator Ofwat announces details of a hike to bills. It’s a “major clearing event,” according to Barclays. Severn Trent is up as much as 2.1%, Pennon Group +3.5%.
• Saipem shares gained, reversing earlier losses, as a consortium including the Italian construction and drilling services co. won an offshore contract in Nigeria, which Mediobanca expects will push year-to-date book-to-bill ratio to highest in a decade.
• European semiconductor stocks slide in early Thursday trading, hit by a weak revenue outlook by memory chipmaker Micron and a Federal Reserve that signaled less urgency to lower rates further. ASML -3.7%, Infineon -3.8%, STMicro -4.7%.
• Roche shares drop as much as 2.2% after a mid-stage study of the pharmaceutical company’s prasinezumab missed its primary endpoint.
• Zurich Insurance Group falls as much as 2.3% after UBS cuts its recommendation to sell, saying the valuation leaves “limited margin for maneuver.” Munich Re is cut to neutral from buy and falls as much as 1.4%.
• Netcompany slumps as much as 11% after Carnegie downgrades its rating on the Danish IT company to hold from buy.
• Tessenderlo falls as much as 8% to its lowest intraday value in ten years, after the firm cut its adjusted Ebitda outlook for the full year, according to a statement. KBC says the valuation is still attractive due to the company’s sizable free cash flow.

Asian stocks recorded their biggest decline in over two month after the Federal Reserve dialed back expectations for rate cuts next year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.7%, with TSMC, Samsung and Commonwealth Bank of Australia the biggest contributors to the decline. Benchmarks of South Korea and Australia were among the worst performers in the region. Indian stocks also dropped. China erased earlier declines amid expectations the government will maintain a loose policy in 2025.

“Investors need to be pretty agile, bob-and-weave as we always say,” Thomas Taw, head of APAC investment strategy at Blackrock, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Interest rates are likely going to be higher for longer and the rest of market will take a little time to digest that, Taw said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% after soaring on Wednesday; the yen tumbled 1.4% – just as we told our premium subscribers – after comments by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cast doubt on whether the bank could hike interest rates in January, or even beyond that, instead signaling that more information is needed on wages and the policies of Donald Trump before making a decision. USD/JPY has topped 157, a level where the BOJ will have to start jawboning verbal intervention only this time nobody will believe it. In China, authorities ramped up support for the currency via its daily reference rate after the Fed’s caution over future rate cuts sent the offshore yuan to a fresh one-year low.

In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper as long-end yields rise an additional 3.5bp while front-end of the curve rallies as traders continue to digest Wednesday’s market reaction to the Fed policy announcement and revised dot-plot forecasts. The yield curve steepened further with 10-year borrowing costs rising another 1 bp to 4.52% while two-year yields pull back. Into the steepening move the 2s10s spread tops at the widest level since Sept. 26. Treasury 2-year yields richer by around 3bp on the day while 30-year yields rise around 3.5bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 5.5bp and 4bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade around 4.535%, just off session highs and at cheapest levels since May. Gilts outperform Treasuries slightly after UK bonds rallied in the aftermath of Bank of England voted 6-3 to keep rates unchanged at 4.75%.

In commodities, oil held within its recent range as expectations for fewer interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year boosted the dollar. Gold staged a partial recovery after tumbling more than 2% in the previous session.

US economic data calendar includes 3Q GDP, December Philadelphia Fed business outlook, initial jobless claims (8:30am), November Leading index, existing home sales (10am), December Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am) and October TIC flows (4pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,894.50
• STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 508.26
• MXAP down 1.6% to 180.90
• MXAPJ down 1.4% to 572.89
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 38,813.58
• Topix down 0.2% to 2,713.83
• Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 19,752.51
• Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,370.03
• Sensex down 1.2% to 79,248.34
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 8,168.22
• Kospi down 2.0% to 2,435.93
• German 10Y yield up 4 bps at 2.29%
• Euro up 0.6% to $1.0417
• Brent Futures little changed at $73.35/bbl
• Gold spot up 1.4% to $2,621.03
• US Dollar Index down 0.16% to 107.85

Top Overnight News

• A stopgap funding deal to keep the US government running collapsed following opposition from Trump and Elon Musk. The president-elect wants lawmakers to include an increase to the debt ceiling in the package — which needs to happen before the summer to avoid a default — so that it would be raised under Joe Biden’s watch. BBG
• Trump said he’s totally against stopgap bill, and instead he and JD Vance called for a temporary funding bill without “Democrat giveaways” combined with an increase in the debt ceiling; Congress should debate the debt limit now: Fox News
• The drive to force Justin Trudeau to step aside as Canadian PM gained momentum. About a third of the 153-person Liberal contingent in the House of Commons want him out, according to one lawmaker. BBG
• The yen sank more than 1% as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cast doubt on the prospect of a January rate hike after the central bank stood pat. Inflationary trends are slow and rate-setters want a fuller picture on wages and Donald Trump’s policies, he said. BBG
• Chinese banks raised mortgage rates for the first time since 2021, according to research firm Data Motion. The average for buyers’ first homes in 42 big cities inched up to 3.08% in November from a record low of 3.05% in the previous month. BBG
• Sweden’s Riksbank lowers its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% (as expected), but the forward guidance is tweaked in a modestly hawkish direction, with the central bank saying it would “carefully evaluate the need for future rate adjustments” given recent easing measures (it said it’s possible that just one 25bp reduction occurs in H1). Riksbank
• Norway’s Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% (as expected), but the forward guidance was somewhat dovish, with the central bank noting that “the time to begin easing monetary policy is soon approaching” (it said a rate reduction was likely to occur in March). Norges Bank
• The BOE left the key rate unchanged at 4.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 in favor of keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The BOE signaled it will keep easing gradually in 2025 as a growing minority of officials set aside evidence of lingering inflation to back an immediate cut in borrowing costs. BBG
• Israeli warplanes struck Houthi sites in Yemen’s capital and elsewhere in response to new missile attacks on Tel Aviv. BBG
• Russian President Putin says he has not spoken to US President-elect Trump in four years but is ready to talk to him.
• Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to deliver two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 (prev. forecast of three 25 bps cuts) following the December FOMC meeting, according to Reuters.
• Apple said Meta has made 15 requests for potentially far-reaching access to Apple’s technology, and it raises concerns about users’ privacy and security as it made more requests than other firms: Reuters.
• Apple is in talks with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in the Chinese market. RTRS
• Indonesian President Prabowo has reportedly approved Apple’s $1bln investment plan: BBG
• Teamsters launched the largest strike against Amazon in US history; workers to strike nationwide on Thursday: RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with losses across the board amid the fallout from the hawkish Fed, as sentiment from Wall Street reverberated to the region. ASX 200 was pressured by its IT and gold sectors following the post-Fed tech downside and the slide in the yellow metal. Nikkei 225 pared some losses following the BoJ’s decision to maintain rates, but choppy trade was  seen thereafter ahead of Governor Ueda’s presser. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both lower as China conformed to the broader post-Fed risk tone, with Fed Chair Powell also suggesting that some Fed members had taken a very preliminary step and incorporated conditional effects of coming policies in their projections – i.e. potential Trump tariffs.

Top Asian News

• BoJ’s comprehensive review of past monetary easing steps highlighted it was deemed appropriate for the bank to continue conducting monetary policy with the aim of achieving the price stability target of 2% in a sustainable and stable manner. The bank stated that no specific measures should be excluded at this point when considering the future conduct of monetary policy. Regarding the effectiveness of monetary easing, it was noted that the quantitative degree of its effects remains uncertain compared with conventional monetary policy measures. While monetary easing influenced inflation expectations to some degree, it was not sufficiently effective in anchoring inflation at 2%. In terms of its impact on interest rates and the economy, long-term interest rates were reduced by approximately 1ppt since 2016. Large-scale monetary easing contributed to GDP growth by an estimated 1.3% to 1.8%, while its effect on CPI was between 0.5 and 0.7ppts. Note, the policy review was initiated by Ueda when he took office in April 2023.
• Honda (7267 JT) and Nissan (7201 JT) talks to start as early as next week, according to Nikkei.
• HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.75%, as expected in lockstep with the Fed.
• South Korean Finance Minister said market-stabilising measures will be taken if volatility is deemed excessive; will prepare FX stability and liquidity measures in 2025 policy plan, according to Reuters.
• South Korean financial regulator said it has asked banks to flexibly adjust FX transactions and loan maturity for firms, according to Reuters.
• South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) and BOK to extend and expand their FX swap agreement, according to Reuters.
• Indonesia’s central bank said it is committed to stabilising the IDR in case of any excessive volatility, according to Reuters.
• Westpac now forecasts the RBNZ to cut the cash rate to 3.25% by May 2025 following the NZ GDP data.

European bourses began the session entirely in the red and have generally traversed worst levels throughout the morning, as traders react to the hawkish cut at the Fed which sparked considerable pressure in US stocks, in the prior trading day. European sectors are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit following the hawkish Fed decision. Optimised Personal Care fares better than peers, with Autos taking second spot. Technology is by far the clear underperformer today, with sentiment across chip-makers hit after Micron’s (-15.5% pre-market) guidance disappointed. US equity futures are modestly in positive territory, as the complex attempts to recoup some of the losses seen in the prior session after the hawkish cut delivered by the Fed, sent the S&P 500 tumbling by around 3%.

Top European News

• Riksbank Rate 2.50% vs. Exp. 2.50% (Prev. 2.75%); if the outlook for inflation/activity remains unchanged, the rate could be cut again during H1-2025 (reiteration). Riksbank’s Thedeen says they are somewhere near the neutral rate, this justifies going forward a little more carefully. If the situation is unclear, will wait with rate changes.
• Norwegian Key Policy Rate 4.50% (exp. 4.50%, prev. 4.50%); “the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”.
• ECB’s Simkus says “best to keep consistent pace toward neutral; economic environment to determine terminal rate; downward direction monetary policy is clear; 1.75% is below the neutral rate. Inflation risks are balanced for the next year.”

BoJ Statement:

• BoJ maintained its rate at 0.25% as expected, with an 8-1 vote; Board Member Tamura dissented, advocating for a 25bps hike to 0.50%. The central bank said inflation expectations were heightening moderately, and inflation was likely to reach a level generally consistent with the BoJ’s price target in the second half of the three-year projection period through fiscal 2026.
• However, uncertainty regarding Japan’s economic and price outlook remains high, the central bank said. BoJ highlighted the need to scrutinise FX and market movements, along with their impact on Japan’s economy and prices.
• BoJ said the impact of FX volatility on inflation could be greater than in the past due to changes in corporate wage and price-setting behaviour. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy was recovering moderately despite some weaknesses, with private consumption increasing.
• Little action was seen outside of Japanese assets; USD/JPY and JGB futures saw upside, Nikkei trimmed some earlier losses.

Ueda Press conference

• For the next rate hike need “one more notch” to decide on tightening. Want to see next year’s wage negotiation momentum.
• Hard to say if the January outlook report and various info are sufficient as “one more notch”.
• If they decide not to hike, will consider whether this decision is a safe one. A risk of falling behind the curve while waiting. Will consider the risks, if they were to decide to skip rate hike.
• Need more data on the wage outlook; needs a little bit more information on wage trends.
• Will need considerable time to see the full picture of wage hikes and Trump policies. Need to gauge the situation for quite a while.
• Large picture on wage trends will become clearer in March and April. Will have to combine other data to make rate decisions until then.
• In totality, Ueda’s remarks have a dovish and cautious skew with Ueda expressing a desire for “one more notch” to decide on tightening. Overall, the presser has increased the odds of rates being left unchanged at the January 24th meeting with focus on the March 19th gathering as details on Spring wage negotiations will have begun filtering through by then.

FX

• USD is currently giving back some of yesterday’s FOMC-induced gains which saw DXY take out the 22nd Nov 2024 high (108.09), topping out at 108.25. DXY has since returned to a 107 handle. As the dust settles on the Fed decision, around 2bps of loosening is priced for the Fed’s January decision with the next 25bps cut not priced until July, whilst around 36bps of cuts is priced by end-2025.
• EUR macro drivers are on the light side and as such impetus for EUR/USD is being mostly driven by the USD leg of the equation. EUR/USD is back on a 1.04 handle after slumping to a 1.0343 low in the aftermath of the FOMC. As for NY OpEx, there are a slew of notable clips due to roll off (details below).
• JPY is by the far the underperformer across the G10 FX complex. USD/JPY was already driven higher following the hawkish Fed announcement, reaching a 154.86 peak. This extended to 155.44 following the BoJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged. Thereafter at Governor Ueda’s press conference, despite some initial firming of the JPY (as Ueda flagged the need to look at financial and FX markets), JPY then sharply depreciated as Ueda struck a cautious tone on future rate hikes. (details in the BoJ section above).
• GBP near the top of the G10 leaderboard in the run-up to today’s BoE policy announcement which is expected to see the MPC hold rates at 4.75% via an 8-1 vote split on account of stubborn services inflation, elevated wage growth and a potential upcoming boost to growth from recent fiscal measures.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD in today’s session but very much down on the week after being dealt a hammer blow by yesterday’s FOMC policy decision. AUD/USD made a fresh YTD low overnight at 0.6200 to hit its lowest level since October 2022. NZD/USD also hit a fresh YTD low overnight at 0.5609 to trade at its lowest level since October 2022. Softness in NZD was also exacerbated by soft GDP metrics overnight.
• EUR/SEK fell from 11.50 to an 11.4872 session low. SEK appreciation was in response to outside bets for 50bps unwinding (though, recent global hawkish action had already done this), phrasing around a “more tentative approach” to policy easing going forward and the elevated CPIF forecast for 2025.
• Following the Norges Bank announcement to keep rates unchanged (as expected), there was some modest two-way reaction seen in EUR/NOK. Initially, the NOK came under pressure on the explicit nod to March before paring given MPR adjustments; as the dust settles, EUR/NOK is back towards pre-release levels of 11.7680.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1911 vs exp. 7.3165 (prev. 7.1880)
• BCB announces spot Dollar auction for December 19th; to offer up to USD 3bln.

Fixed Income

• USTs continue to falter post-FOMC and now at a 108-26+ trough, just below Wednesday’s 108-27 base and at a contract low. Ahead, we look to the US quarterly PCE and GDP before Friday’s monthly metric ahead of blackout lifting and Fed speak potentially resuming. Amidst this, the 2yr, 5yr, 7yr announcement before a TIPS auction. The US yield curve is steepening and markedly so with the 10yr at a 4.53% peak, its highest since May when 4.69% printed, while the short-end is under pressure and the 2yr is pulling back from a 4.36% peak.
• JGBs caught a bid following BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference, in which he largely held a dovish tone and remained cautious on future hikes, noting he is waiting for “one more notch” on the wage data front. Currently higher by around 21 ticks, after rising to a 142.51 peak earlier.
• Bunds were pressured, in-fitting with USTs as outlined above. Specifics for the bloc have been light, with focus thus far and ahead firmly on external drivers. Bunds down to a 133.79 trough overnight, for reference 132.00 is the contract low from November, but have since bounced back above 134.00 to a 134.23 peak taking impetus from JGBs.
• Gilts gapped lower by 69 ticks before moving below the 92.00 handle to a 91.87 base, which is another contract low. The BoE is set to announce is policy decision today, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, so focus will lie on any potential forward guidance.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are essentially flat; the complex came under post-FOMC, but has since attempted to recoup some of the losses as the Dollar strength fades a touch. Brent Feb 2025 currently at the today’s peak at USD 73.55/bbl.
• Gold is firmer, lifted off USD 2584/oz post-Fed lows as the USD comes off highs and the risk tone in Europe sours. In terms of resistance levels the 21-DMA resides at USD 2650/oz before the 50-DMA at USD 2670/oz.
• Base metals are in the red, alongside the slump in sentiment and the relatively strong Dollar; albeit, the USD strength has unwound a touch in the European morning. 3M LME copper has traversed the bottom end of the day’s USD 8,906.50-961.50/oz range thus far.
• Sinopec Energy Outlook said China’s petroleum consumption is expected to peak in 2027 at up to 800mln metric tons, according to Reuters.
• Indonesia is considering deep cuts to Nickel mining, according to Bloomberg; looking at reducing Nickel ore allowed to be mined in 2025 to 150mln tonnes

Geopolitics

• “Israel-Hamas hostage deal not imminent”, according to Al Jazeera citing Jerusalem Post.
• “IDF: Sirens sound in several areas of central Israel, including Tel Aviv”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Senior Israeli official said IDF attacked in Sana’a (Yemen), according to Axios’ Ravid.
• Yemeni Houthi spokesperson posted “An important statement for the Yemeni armed forces in the coming hours.”, via X.
• “Arab media reported attacks in the area of the Yemeni capital Sana’a, the port of al-Hodeidah in the west of the country, and an oil facility in the Ras al-Issa area”, according to Kann News.
• “An adviser to the Houthis’ information ministry in Yemen: ‘The Israeli attacks will not go unanswered. We will attack facilities related to electricity and oil reservoirs deep inside the occupation entity'”, via Kan’s Kais on X.
• Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Rostov region starts fire at Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, according to the regional governor.
• Swedish Police say they went on board the Yi Peng 3 vessel today at the invitation of Chinese authorities

US Event calendar

• 08:30: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
  • 3Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.6%, prior 3.5%
  • 3Q GDP Price Index, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
  • 3Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1%
• 08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230,000, prior 242,000
  • Dec. Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
• 08:30: Dec. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 2.8, prior -5.5
• 10:00: Nov. Home Resales with Condos, est. 4.08m, prior 3.96m
  • Nov. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 3.0%, prior 3.4%
• 10:00: Nov. Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.4%
• 11:00: Dec. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -1, prior -2
• 16:00: Oct. Total Net TIC Flows

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There might only be 6 days until Christmas, but markets still had time for another surprise yesterday, as a hawkish cut from the Fed saw the S&P 500 (-2.95%) post its biggest decline after a Fed meeting since 2001. The moves led to a significant cross-asset slump, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+11.5bps) closing above 4.5% for the first time since May, whilst the VIX index of volatility surged +11.75pts to 27.62pts, which is its highest since the market turmoil back in the summer. And that’s before we get onto the mounting likelihood of a US government shutdown, as well as a major selloff in Brazil amidst growing fiscal concerns there.

Starting with the Fed, they delivered a widely expected 25bp cut, taking the fed funds rate down to the 4.25-4.50% range. But aside from the decision itself, just about every other aspect leant in a more hawkish direction than expected. For instance, the latest dot plot only pencilled in 50bps of cuts for 2025, down from 100bps in September and less than the 75bps expected by consensus. Similarly, the long-run median dot moved up to 3.0%, whilst the inflation projections saw a visible upgrade, with 2025 PCE inflation now seen at 2.5% (vs. 2.1% before). Indeed, most FOMC members now see the risks to core PCE as tilted to the upside, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack voted against the rate cut altogether.

That hawkish tone was followed up by Chair Powell in the press conference, who said that the latest rate cut “was a closer call”, and they were “at a point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate cuts”. In particular, Powell repeatedly noted that they need to see more “progress on inflation” to cut rates further, and said they were “not going to settle” for inflation staying above 2%. Our US economists see yesterday’s meeting as reinforcing their baseline view that a skip at the January meeting will likely turn into an extended pause in 2025. See their full reaction here .

In terms of the market reaction, there was a sizeable repricing in rate expectations, with the rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2025 meeting up +14.5bps yesterday to 4.01%. In turn, that led Treasuries to sell off across the curve, with 2yr yields up +11.0bps to 4.35% and 10yr yields +11.5bps to 4.51%, their highest level since late May. In the equity space, the S&P 500 fell -2.95%, marking its worst Fed decision day since 2001, with all of its 24 industry groups lower on the day. That was driven by even bigger losses for the Magnificent 7 (-4.12%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-4.39%) underperformed as well. The notable beneficiary of the Fed’s hawkishness was the US dollar, with the dollar index up +1.00% and the euro closing below $1.04 for the first time in two years.

Whilst the Fed was dominating attention yesterday, investors have also been alert to the growing risks of a US government shutdown later this week. That came as Donald Trump and JD Vance said that they opposed the continuing resolution that House Speaker Mike Johnson had negotiated with Democrats, which would fund the government until March. Instead, they called for “a streamlined spending bill” and for Republicans in Congress to push for an increase in the debt ceiling before the end of Biden’s term. On Polymarket, that’s seen the likelihood of a government shutdown before year-end rise from 10% just 24 hours ago to 53% now. The bill would have kept funding going until mid-March, as funding is currently set to run out at the end of this week.

Overnight, there’s been no let up in the newsflow, with the Bank of Japan leaving its policy rate steady at 0.25%. It was an 8-1 vote, with Naoki Tamura voting for a 25bp hike given his view that “risks to prices had become more skewed to the upside”. However, the tone remained cautious generally, and the statement said that “there remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economic activity and prices”. And with the Fed becoming more hawkish and the BoJ staying on hold, that’s seen the Japanese Yen weaken to 155.33 against the US Dollar this morning.

More broadly, equity markets in Asia have lost ground following the Fed’s decision, with declines for the Nikkei (-0.51%), the Hang Seng (-0.68%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.45%) and the KOSPI (-1.69%). Australian markets have seen a significant slump too, with their 10yr government bond yield up +13.1bps overnight, whilst the S&P/ASX 200 is down -1.70%. The one exception to this negative pattern is the CSI 300, which is up +0.13% this morning. And looking forward, US equity futures have stabilised after the Fed-induced decline yesterday, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.11%.

Elsewhere, the other main development yesterday was a deepening selloff in Brazilian markets. That’s been driven by concerns over the country’s deficit, which our economists see at 8% over the next couple of years, and that’s led in turn to a major slump in the currency. The government are seeking to push through some spending cuts, although lawmakers in lower house watered down some of the package on Tuesday, which added to questions about how much would actually get passed.

That backdrop led to significant losses for Brazilian assets yesterday, with further declines amidst the post-FOMC risk-off mood. The Brazilian Real declined -2.87% to an all-time low against the US Dollar, bringing its losses over 2024 so far to -22.9%. That was echoed across other asset classes, and the Ibovespa equity index fell -3.15% in its worst daily performance since November 2022. In the meantime, 10yr yields on local currency debt were up +45.6bps to their highest level since 2016, whilst those on the country’s USD government debt were up +30.2bps.

Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as the Bank of England will announce their latest decision at 12pm London time. In terms of the decision itself, they’re widely expected to keep rates unchanged, with Bank Rate staying at 4.75%. And looking forward, our UK economist doesn’t expect any changes to the key message, which is that a gradual removal of policy restraint is appropriate, while policy will need to stay restrictive for sufficiently long until inflation risks dissipate further. For more details, see his full preview here.

Ahead of the BoE’s decision, UK gilts remained under pressure, and the 10yr spread over bunds widened to 231bps. That’s its widest level since 1990, and comes after the November CPI showed a fresh pickup in inflation. For instance, headline inflation was up to an 8-month high of +2.6%, and core inflation also moved higher for a second month running to +3.5%. But even though the pickup was broadly expected, the moves cemented the view that the UK data was headed in a more stagflationary direction, and the 10yr gilt yield (+3.4bps) closed at a 4.56%, within 1bp of its one-year high seen in early November.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets put in a more robust performance before the Fed, with the STOXX 600 (+0.15%) picking up after four consecutive declines. That was echoed among the major equity indices, with modest gains for the CAC 40 (+0.26%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.25%), although the German DAX (-0.02%) lost a bit of ground. For sovereign bonds, the story was a similar one of modest rises in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+1.4bps) and BTPs (+1.8bps) all moving higher. However, both equity and bond futures are pointing lower in Europe after the Fed, with those on the DAX down -1.29% this morning.

Finally, there wasn’t much other data yesterday, although we did a mixed report on the US housing market. On the downside, housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.289m in November (vs. 1.345m expected), which is their weakest level in four months. But on the upside, building permits moved up to an annualised rate of 1.505m (vs. 1.430m expected), which is their strongest in nine months. With that in hand, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 ticked slightly higher, and now sees an annualised growth rate of 3.2%.

To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision. Otherwise, US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for November, the Conference Board’s leading index for November, and the third estimate of Q3 GDP. Finally, we’ll get earnings releases from Nike and FedEx.

2B) EUROPEAN REPORT

US equity futures gain, DXY gives back some of post-FOMC strength, JPY hit post-Ueda – Newsquawk US Market Open

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 05:56 AM

• European stocks tumble post-FOMC, MU -15% pre-market weighing on chip peers in Europe; US futures attempting to recoup yesterday’s losses.
• USD gives back some of yesterday’s post-FOMC gains, JPY hit after BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference.
• US yield curve steepens, JGBs outperform post-Ueda, Gilts lag pre-BoE.
• Crude lifts incrementally off Wednesday’s lows, XAU fares better as the USD pauses for breath.
• Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, NZ Trade Balance, Japanese CPI, BoE, CNB, Banxico Policy Announcements, Earnings from Accenture, Cintas, Conagra Brands, Nike, FedEx, BlackBerry.

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BOJ MEETING

BOJ STATEMENT:

• BoJ maintained its rate at 0.25% as expected, with an 8-1 vote; Board Member Tamura dissented, advocating for a 25bps hike to 0.50%. The central bank said inflation expectations were heightening moderately, and inflation was likely to reach a level generally consistent with the BoJ’s price target in the second half of the three-year projection period through fiscal 2026.
• However, uncertainty regarding Japan’s economic and price outlook remains high, the central bank said. BoJ highlighted the need to scrutinise FX and market movements, along with their impact on Japan’s economy and prices.
• BoJ said the impact of FX volatility on inflation could be greater than in the past due to changes in corporate wage and price-setting behaviour. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy was recovering moderately despite some weaknesses, with private consumption increasing.
• Little action was seen outside of Japanese assets; USD/JPY and JGB futures saw upside, Nikkei trimmed some earlier losses.

UEDA PRESS CONFERENCE

• For the next rate hike need “one more notch” to decide on tightening. Want to see next year’s wage negotiation momentum.
• Hard to say if the January outlook report and various info are sufficient as “one more notch”.
• If they decide not to hike, will consider whether this decision is a safe one. A risk of falling behind the curve while waiting. Will consider the risks, if they were to decide to skip rate hike.
• Need more data on the wage outlook; needs a little bit more information on wage trends.
• Will need considerable time to see the full picture of wage hikes and Trump policies. Need to gauge the situation for quite a while.
• Large picture on wage trends will become clearer in March and April. Will have to combine other data to make rate decisions until then.
• In totality, Ueda’s remarks have a dovish and cautious skew with Ueda expressing a desire for “one more notch” to decide on tightening. Overall, the presser has increased the odds of rates being left unchanged at the January 24th meeting with focus on the March 19th gathering as details on Spring wage negotiations will have begun filtering through by then.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses began the session entirely in the red and have generally traversed worst levels throughout the morning, as traders react to the hawkish cut at the Fed which sparked considerable pressure in US stocks, in the prior trading day.
• European sectors are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit following the hawkish Fed decision. Optimised Personal Care fares better than peers, with Autos taking second spot. Technology is by far the clear underperformer today, with sentiment across chip-makers hit after Micron’s (-15.5% pre-market) guidance disappointed.
• US equity futures are modestly in positive territory, as the complex attempts to recoup some of the losses seen in the prior session after the hawkish cut delivered by the Fed, sent the S&P 500 tumbling by around 3%.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is currently giving back some of yesterday’s FOMC-induced gains which saw DXY take out the 22nd Nov 2024 high (108.09), topping out at 108.25. DXY has since returned to a 107 handle. As the dust settles on the Fed decision, around 2bps of loosening is priced for the Fed’s January decision with the next 25bps cut not priced until July, whilst around 36bps of cuts is priced by end-2025.
• EUR macro drivers are on the light side and as such impetus for EUR/USD is being mostly driven by the USD leg of the equation. EUR/USD is back on a 1.04 handle after slumping to a 1.0343 low in the aftermath of the FOMC. As for NY OpEx, there are a slew of notable clips due to roll off (details below).
• JPY is by the far the underperformer across the G10 FX complex. USD/JPY was already driven higher following the hawkish Fed announcement, reaching a 154.86 peak. This extended to 155.44 following the BoJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged. Thereafter at Governor Ueda’s press conference, despite some initial firming of the JPY (as Ueda flagged the need to look at financial and FX markets), JPY then sharply depreciated as Ueda struck a cautious tone on future rate hikes. (details in the BoJ section above).
• GBP near the top of the G10 leaderboard in the run-up to today’s BoE policy announcement which is expected to see the MPC hold rates at 4.75% via an 8-1 vote split on account of stubborn services inflation, elevated wage growth and a potential upcoming boost to growth from recent fiscal measures.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD in today’s session but very much down on the week after being dealt a hammer blow by yesterday’s FOMC policy decision. AUD/USD made a fresh YTD low overnight at 0.6200 to hit its lowest level since October 2022. NZD/USD also hit a fresh YTD low overnight at 0.5609 to trade at its lowest level since October 2022. Softness in NZD was also exacerbated by soft GDP metrics overnight.
• EUR/SEK fell from 11.50 to an 11.4872 session low. SEK appreciation was in response to outside bets for 50bps unwinding (though, recent global hawkish action had already done this), phrasing around a “more tentative approach” to policy easing going forward and the elevated CPIF forecast for 2025.
• Following the Norges Bank announcement to keep rates unchanged (as expected), there was some modest two-way reaction seen in EUR/NOK. Initially, the NOK came under pressure on the explicit nod to March before paring given MPR adjustments; as the dust settles, EUR/NOK is back towards pre-release levels of 11.7680.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1911 vs exp. 7.3165 (prev. 7.1880)
• BCB announces spot Dollar auction for December 19th; to offer up to USD 3bln.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs continue to falter post-FOMC and now at a 108-26+ trough, just below Wednesday’s 108-27 base and at a contract low. Ahead, we look to the US quarterly PCE and GDP before Friday’s monthly metric ahead of blackout lifting and Fed speak potentially resuming. Amidst this, the 2yr, 5yr, 7yr announcement before a TIPS auction. The US yield curve is steepening and markedly so with the 10yr at a 4.53% peak, its highest since May when 4.69% printed, while the short-end is under pressure and the 2yr is pulling back from a 4.36% peak.
• JGBs caught a bid following BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference, in which he largely held a dovish tone and remained cautious on future hikes, noting he is waiting for “one more notch” on the wage data front. Currently higher by around 21 ticks, after rising to a 142.51 peak earlier.
• Bunds were pressured, in-fitting with USTs as outlined above. Specifics for the bloc have been light, with focus thus far and ahead firmly on external drivers. Bunds down to a 133.79 trough overnight, for reference 132.00 is the contract low from November, but have since bounced back above 134.00 to a 134.23 peak taking impetus from JGBs.
• Gilts gapped lower by 69 ticks before moving below the 92.00 handle to a 91.87 base, which is another contract low. The BoE is set to announce is policy decision today, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, so focus will lie on any potential forward guidance.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent are essentially flat; the complex came under post-FOMC, but has since attempted to recoup some of the losses as the Dollar strength fades a touch. Brent Feb 2025 currently at the today’s peak at USD 73.55/bbl.
• Gold is firmer, lifted off USD 2584/oz post-Fed lows as the USD comes off highs and the risk tone in Europe sours. In terms of resistance levels the 21-DMA resides at USD 2650/oz before the 50-DMA at USD 2670/oz.
• Base metals are in the red, alongside the slump in sentiment and the relatively strong Dollar; albeit, the USD strength has unwound a touch in the European morning. 3M LME copper has traversed the bottom end of the day’s USD 8,906.50-961.50/oz range thus far.
• Sinopec Energy Outlook said China’s petroleum consumption is expected to peak in 2027 at up to 800mln metric tons, according to Reuters.
• Indonesia is considering deep cuts to Nickel mining, according to Bloomberg; looking at reducing Nickel ore allowed to be mined in 2025 to 150mln tonnes
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jan) -21.3 vs. Exp. -22.5 (Prev. -23.3, Rev. -23.1)
• EU Current Account SA, EUR (Oct) 26.0B (Prev. 37.0B).

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Riksbank Rate 2.50% vs. Exp. 2.50% (Prev. 2.75%); if the outlook for inflation/activity remains unchanged, the rate could be cut again during H1-2025 (reiteration). Click for details.. Riksbank’s Thedeen says they are somewhere near the neutral rate, this justifies going forward a little more carefully. If the situation is unclear, will wait with rate changes.
• Norwegian Key Policy Rate 4.50% (exp. 4.50%, prev. 4.50%); “the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”. Click for details.
• ECB’s Simkus says “best to keep consistent pace toward neutral; economic environment to determine terminal rate; downward direction monetary policy is clear; 1.75% is below the neutral rate. Inflation risks are balanced for the next year.”

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to deliver two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 (prev. forecast of three 25 bps cuts) following the December FOMC meeting, according to Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump said he’s totally against stopgap bill, Fox News reported. President-elect Trump and Vance called for a temporary funding bill without “Democrat giveaways” combined with an increase in the debt ceiling; Congress should debate the debt limit now.
• Micron Technology Inc (MU) – Q1 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.79 (exp. 1.77), Adj. Revenue 8.71bln (exp. 8.71bln). Adjusted gross margin 39.5% (exp. 39.5%). Adjusted operating income 2.39bln (exp. 2.34bln). Adjusted operating income margin 27.5% (exp. 27%). Cash flow from operations 3.24bln (exp. 4.1bln). Guidance: Sees return to growth in H2 of FY. Q2 adj. revenue 7.7-8.1bln (exp. 8.99bln). Q2 adj. gross margin 37.5-39.5% (exp. 41.3%). Q2 adj. EPS 1.33-1.53 (exp. 1.92). Fiscal Q2 bit shipment outlook weaker than expected. Prioritizing investments to ramp 1β & 1γ tech nodes. Commentary: The PC refresh cycle is unfolding more gradually. Sees sale of projects to China-headquartered customers to be concentrated in high-end customer portfolios for the remainder of 2025. Shares fell 15% after-market.
• Micron (MU) executive said see conditions for margin expansion occurring after Q3, and added they saw some moderation in purchases of data centre SSDs after several quarters of rapid growth.
• Apple (AAPL) said Meta (META) has made 15 requests for potentially far-reaching access to Apple’s technology, and it raises concerns about users’ privacy and security as it made more requests than other firms, according to Reuters.
• Apple (AAPL) is reportedly in talks with Tencent (700 HK) and ByteDance to integrate their AI features into iPhones sold in China, according to Reuters sources.
• Indonesian President Prabowo has reportedly approved Apple’s (AAPL) USD 1bln investment plan, via Bloomberg citing sources.
• Teamsters launch the largest strike against Amazon (AMZN) in US history; workers to strike nationwide on Thursday, according to Reuters.
• Russian President Putin says he has not spoken to US President-elect Trump in four years but is ready to talk to him.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• “Israel-Hamas hostage deal not imminent”, according to Al Jazeera citing Jerusalem Post.
• “IDF: Sirens sound in several areas of central Israel, including Tel Aviv”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Senior Israeli official said IDF attacked in Sana’a (Yemen), according to Axios’ Ravid.
• Yemeni Houthi spokesperson posted “An important statement for the Yemeni armed forces in the coming hours.”, via X.
• “Arab media reported attacks in the area of the Yemeni capital Sana’a, the port of al-Hodeidah in the west of the country, and an oil facility in the Ras al-Issa area”, according to Kann News.
• “An adviser to the Houthis’ information ministry in Yemen: ‘The Israeli attacks will not go unanswered. We will attack facilities related to electricity and oil reservoirs deep inside the occupation entity'”, via Kan’s Kais on X.

OTHER

• Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Rostov region starts fire at Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, according to the regional governor.
• Swedish Police say they went on board the Yi Peng 3 vessel today at the invitation of Chinese authorities

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on the backfoot after slumping in the aftermath of the FOMC decision; currently sits around 101.7k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded with losses across the board amid the fallout from the hawkish Fed, as sentiment from Wall Street reverberated to the region.
• ASX 200 was pressured by its IT and gold sectors following the post-Fed tech downside and the slide in the yellow metal.
• Nikkei 225 pared some losses following the BoJ’s decision to maintain rates, but choppy trade was seen thereafter ahead of Governor Ueda’s presser.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both lower as China conformed to the broader post-Fed risk tone, with Fed Chair Powell also suggesting that some Fed members had taken a very preliminary step and incorporated conditional effects of coming policies in their projections – i.e. potential Trump tariffs.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ’s comprehensive review of past monetary easing steps highlighted it was deemed appropriate for the bank to continue conducting monetary policy with the aim of achieving the price stability target of 2% in a sustainable and stable manner. The bank stated that no specific measures should be excluded at this point when considering the future conduct of monetary policy. Regarding the effectiveness of monetary easing, it was noted that the quantitative degree of its effects remains uncertain compared with conventional monetary policy measures. While monetary easing influenced inflation expectations to some degree, it was not sufficiently effective in anchoring inflation at 2%. In terms of its impact on interest rates and the economy, long-term interest rates were reduced by approximately 1ppt since 2016. Large-scale monetary easing contributed to GDP growth by an estimated 1.3% to 1.8%, while its effect on CPI was between 0.5 and 0.7ppts. Note, the policy review was initiated by Ueda when he took office in April 2023.
• Honda (7267 JT) and Nissan (7201 JT) talks to start as early as next week, according to Nikkei.
• HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.75%, as expected in lockstep with the Fed.
• South Korean Finance Minister said market-stabilising measures will be taken if volatility is deemed excessive; will prepare FX stability and liquidity measures in 2025 policy plan, according to Reuters.
• South Korean financial regulator said it has asked banks to flexibly adjust FX transactions and loan maturity for firms, according to Reuters.
• South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) and BOK to extend and expand their FX swap agreement, according to Reuters.
• Indonesia’s central bank said it is committed to stabilising the IDR in case of any excessive volatility, according to Reuters.
• Westpac now forecasts the RBNZ to cut the cash rate to 3.25% by May 2025 following the NZ GDP data.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ, SA (Q3) -1.0% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -1.1%)
• New Zealand GDP Exp Based QQ, SA (Q3) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Rev. -0.8%)
• New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY, SA (Q3) -1.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.5%)
• New Zealand GDP Prod Based, Ann Avg (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. 0.6%)
• New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Dec) 62.3% (Prev. 64.9%)
• New Zealand ANZ Own Activity (Dec) 50.3% (Prev. 48.0%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

Fallout from the hawkish Fed reverberates, BoJ maintained rates – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 01:34 AM

• The Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected, to 4.25-4.5% in an 11-1 split, with Hammack voting to leave rates unchanged; the median dot plot for 2025 and 2026 FFR forecasts were lifted above expectations.
• Fed Chair Powell said the decision was a “closer call”, but the “right call”, suggesting there was a discussion surrounding holding rates at this meeting, and that “extent and timing language” shows Fed is at or near the point of slowing rate cuts, and the slower pace of cuts reflects expectation. 
• APAC stocks traded with losses across the board amid the fallout from the hawkish Fed, as sentiment from Wall Street reverberated to the region.
• BoJ maintained its rate at 0.25% as expected, with an 8-1 vote; Board Member Tamura dissented, advocating for a 25bps hike to 0.50%; eyes on Governor Ueda’s presser.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open following the late selling stateside, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.6% after cash closed +0.3% on Wednesday.   
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, NZ Trade Balance, Japanese CPI, BoE, Riksbank, Norges, CNB, Banxico Policy Announcements, BoJ Governor Ueda, Norges Bank’s Bache, Riksbank’s Theeden, Supply from the UK.

 

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FOMC MEETING

FOMC STATEMENT & PROJECTIONS:

• The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps, as expected, to 4.25-4.5% in an 11-1 split, with Hammack voting to leave rates unchanged. The statement was little changed from the November meeting, but added in considering the “extent and timing” of additional rate adjustments (prev. In considering additional adjustments), the Fed will assess incoming data, evolving outlook and balance of risks.
• However, the further hawkish skew came in the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) whereby the median dot plot for 2025 and 2026 FFR forecasts were lifted above expectations. Recapping, the median 2025 dot rose to 3.9% from 3.4% (exp. 3.6%), while the 2026 median rose to 3.4% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 2.9%). 2027 and longer run median dot plots rose to 3.1% (prev. 2.9%) and 3.0% (prev. 2.9%), as expected. As such, the 2025 median dot plot looks for just two cuts in 2025.
• Elsewhere, Core PCE inflation is now seen at 2.5% for 2025 (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.2%) and 2.2% for 2026 (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%). Forecasts for the unemployment rate were largely as expected, with all horizons, ex-longer run, seen at 4.3%, although 2027 was expected. In addition, and as was alluded to in the latest Minutes, the Fed lowered the repo rate by 30bps to 4.25% (lower end of FFR target, vs 5bps above lower end previously).

FED CHAIR POWELL PRESSER:

• In Chair Powell’s pre-prepared remarks he stated the Fed is squarely focused on two goals, and that the economy is strong, the labour market remains solid, and inflation is much closer to the 2% goal. Ahead of November PCE on Friday, Powell said total PCE probably rose 2.5% in the 12 months ending in November, while core PCE prices probably rose 2.8% in November.
• The Chair added that the policy stance is now significantly less restrictive, and going forward they can be more cautious, something which was indicated from the updated SEPs and statement tweak.
• In the Q&A, the distinct hawkish remark came from the first question, which accentuated hawkish market moves, as Powell said that today’s decision was a “closer call”, but the “right call”, suggesting there was a discussion surrounding holding rates at this meeting. Powell added risks are two-sided, and trying to steer between those two risks.
• Chair Powell stated that “extent and timing language” shows Fed is at or near the point of slowing rate cuts, and the slower pace of cuts reflects expectation. Powell said that cuts they make in 2025 will be in response to data and as long as the labour market and economy are solid, they can be cautious as they consider further cuts. In addition, looking at US President-elect Trump’s term, Powell said some people did take a very preliminary step and incorporated conditional effects of coming policies in their projections.
• NOTE: One committee member sees no cuts in 2025, and one sees five 25bps rate cuts – showing a wide range of views on the Fed, but many were centred around the median. Continuing to look ahead, Powell said it will be looking for further progress in inflation to make those cuts, and added that from here is a new phase, and the Fed is going to be cautious about further cuts.

FED MARKET REACTION

• STOCKS: Sold off across the board and SPX saw its worst “Fed day” since 2001, according to Bloomberg.
• FX: DXY surged against major peers to a 108.27 high as the Fed delivered a hawkish cut – i.e. a 25bps cut as expected, but raising FFR projections above expectations, particularly in 2025.
• BONDS: Dived after Fed signals slower rate path ahead; US 10-year yield rose above 4.50%.
• COMMODITIES: Sold off post-settlement after the hawkish FOMC.
• CRYPTO: Extended on recent losses with Bitcoin slipping under USD 101k.
• MARKET IMPLIED FED RATE CUT PRICING: January 2bps (prev. 4bps), March 12bps (prev. 17bps), May 15bps (prev. 23bps), December 2025 34bps (prev. 48bps); (prev. = pre-FOMC and incorporated for today’s rate cut).

BOJ MEETING

BOJ STATEMENT:

• BoJ maintained its rate at 0.25% as expected, with an 8-1 vote; Board Member Tamura dissented, advocating for a 25bps hike to 0.50%. The central bank said inflation expectations were heightening moderately, and inflation was likely to reach a level generally consistent with the BoJ’s price target in the second half of the three-year projection period through fiscal 2026.
• However, uncertainty regarding Japan’s economic and price outlook remains high, the central bank said. BoJ highlighted the need to scrutinise FX and market movements, along with their impact on Japan’s economy and prices.
• BoJ said the impact of FX volatility on inflation could be greater than in the past due to changes in corporate wage and price-setting behaviour. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy was recovering moderately despite some weaknesses, with private consumption increasing.

REACTION

• Little action was seen outside of Japanese assets; USD/JPY and JGB futures saw upside, Nikkei trimmed some earlier losses (more details below).
• NOTE: Traders typically get more colour on the BoJ’s thinking via Governor Ueda’s press conference, which is slated for 06:30GMT.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks saw considerable downside (SPX -2.95%, NDX -3.6%, DJIA -2.58%, RUT -4.4%) in wake of the hawkish FOMC cut, while sectors were all notably in the red with Consumer Discretionary plunging 4.75% and weighed on by Tesla’s (TSLA) (-8.5%) weakness.
• SPX -2.95% at 5,872, NDX -3.60% at 21,209, DJIA -2.58% at 42,327, RUT -4.39% at 2,232
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to deliver two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 (prev forecast of three 25 bps cuts) following the December FOMC meeting, according to Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump said he’s totally against stopgap bill, Fox News reported. President-elect Trump and Vance called for a temporary funding bill without “Democrat giveaways” combined with an increase in the debt ceiling; Congress should debate the debt limit now.
• Micron Technology Inc (MU) – Q1 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.79 (exp. 1.77), Adj. Revenue 8.71bln (exp. 8.71bln). Adjusted gross margin 39.5% (exp. 39.5%). Adjusted operating income 2.39bln (exp. 2.34bln). Adjusted operating income margin 27.5% (exp. 27%). Cash flow from operations 3.24bln (exp. 4.1bln). Guidance: Sees return to growth in H2 of FY. Q2 adj. revenue 7.7-8.1bln (exp. 8.99bln). Q2 adj. gross margin 37.5-39.5% (exp. 41.3%). Q2 adj. EPS 1.33-1.53 (exp. 1.92). Fiscal Q2 bit shipment outlook weaker than expected. Prioritizing investments to ramp 1β & 1γ tech nodes. Commentary: The PC refresh cycle is unfolding more gradually. Sees sale of projects to China-headquartered customers to be concentrated in high-end customer portfolios for the remainder of 2025. Shares fell 15% after-market.
• Micron (MU) executive said see conditions for margin expansion occurring after Q3, and added they saw some moderation in purchases of data centre SSDs after several quarters of rapid growth.
• Apple (AAPL) said Meta (META) has made 15 requests for potentially far-reaching access to Apple’s technology, and it raises concerns about users’ privacy and security as it made more requests than other firms, according to Reuters.
• Apple (AAPL) is reportedly in talks with Tencent (700 HK) and ByteDance to integrate their AI features into iPhones sold in China, according to Reuters sources.
• Teamsters launch the largest strike against Amazon (AMZN) in US history; workers to strike nationwide on Thursday, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded with losses across the board amid the fallout from the hawkish Fed, as sentiment from Wall Street reverberated to the region.
• ASX 200 was pressured by its IT and gold sectors following the post-Fed tech downside and the slide in the yellow metal.
• Nikkei 225 pared some losses following the BoJ’s decision to maintain rates, but choppy trade was seen thereafter ahead of Governor Ueda’s presser.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both lower as China conformed to the broader post-Fed risk tone, with Fed Chair Powell also suggesting that some Fed members had taken a very preliminary step and incorporated conditional effects of coming policies in their projections – i.e. potential Trump tariffs.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%) consolidated and took a breather after the Fed-induced selling stateside as traders in APAC and Europe digested the FOMC announcement and press conference. Meanwhile, Micron shares extended its fall to -16.2% following their earnings call.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open following the late selling stateside, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.6% after cash closed +0.3% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY held onto a bulk of its gains and remained above 108.00 (albeit briefly dipped under the level at one point) after surging from levels around 107.00 before the Fed statement, with the hawkish dot plots and tone from Powell keeping the buck underpinned overnight. DXY took out the 22nd Nov 2024 high (108.09) – next upside levels include the peak from 11th Nov 2022 (108.44), with clean air then seen until near 111.00.
• EUR/USD slumped to a 1.0343 low in the aftermath of the FOMC, with the next support level seen at the 22nd Nov 2024 (and YTD) low (1.0333) before looking at levels from late 2022.
• GBP/USD traded in a narrow APAC range ahead of the BoE and after the prior day’s Dollar-induced hit. Levels to the downside included the 26th Nov low (1.2503) and then the 22nd Nov trough (1.2484).
• USD/JPY reached a 154.86 post-Fed peak which later extended to 155.44 as the BoJ opted to maintain its rate, although Board Member Tamura dissented and called for a 25bps hike to 0.50%, with eyes on Governor Ueda for more volatility.
• Antipodeans remained subdued after the FOMC also dealt a blow to base metals, whilst the Kiwi narrowly underperformed after seeing some downside on its GDP data, which showed its economy had shrunk by 1% in Q3 Q/Q (vs exp. -0.2%, prev. -0.2%).
• Yuan saw some strenght following the PBoC fixing, possibly as the fix itself did not rise as much as expectations for the fix rose post-Fed. Note, the fix was expected at 7.3165 (prev exp. 7.2838); fix set at 1.911 (prev. fix 7.1880).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1911 vs exp. 7.3165 (prev. 7.1880)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures maintained a downward bias after T-Notes had dived in US hours following the Fed signalling a slower rate path ahead.
• Bund futures also traded lower but after German debt futures had reacted most of the Fed just before ceasing trade on Wednesday.
• 10yr JGB futures saw choppy trade with an initial slump at the open in reaction to the Fed, before recoiling after the BoJ decision, with the contract almost wiping out its Fed-induced downside.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures held onto losses after the Fed decision sparked selling in the complex, with prices subdued in APAC hours as the region digested the demand implications of fewer projected Fed rate cuts.
• Spot gold trimmed some post-Fed losses, possibly amid geopolitics as Israel and Yemen exchanged fire. Earlier, the yellow metal was pressured by the stronger buck, with the yellow metal sliding from a pre-Fed level of around USD 2,640/oz, through its 100 DMA (USD 2,605.30/oz), to a USD 2,585/oz post-Fed trough.
• Copper futures were softer as LME futures played catchup to the price action seen in CME counterparts in the wake of the Fed.
• Sinopec Energy Outlook said China’s petroleum consumption is expected to peak in 2027 at up to 800mln metric tons, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin extended on recent losses with prices briefly slipping under USD 100k amid the Fed follow-through in APAC hours, although the complex later found a floor.

OTHER NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ’s comprehensive review of past monetary easing steps highlighted it was deemed appropriate for the bank to continue conducting monetary policy with the aim of achieving the price stability target of 2% in a sustainable and stable manner. The bank stated that no specific measures should be excluded at this point when considering the future conduct of monetary policy. Regarding the effectiveness of monetary easing, it was noted that the quantitative degree of its effects remains uncertain compared with conventional monetary policy measures. While monetary easing influenced inflation expectations to some degree, it was not sufficiently effective in anchoring inflation at 2%. In terms of its impact on interest rates and the economy, long-term interest rates were reduced by approximately 1ppt since 2016. Large-scale monetary easing contributed to GDP growth by an estimated 1.3% to 1.8%, while its effect on CPI was between 0.5 and 0.7ppts. Note, the policy review was initiated by Ueda when he took office in April 2023.
• Honda (7267 JT) and Nissan (7201 JT) talks to start as early as next week, according to Nikkei.
• HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.75%, as expected in lockstep with the Fed.
• South Korean Finance Minister said market-stabilising measures will be taken if volatility is deemed excessive; will prepare FX stability and liquidity measures in 2025 policy plan, according to Reuters.
• South Korean financial regulator said it has asked banks to flexibly adjust FX transactions and loan maturity for firms, according to Reuters.
• South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) and BOK to extend and expand their FX swap agreement, according to Reuters.
• Indonesia’s central bank said it is committed to stabilising the IDR in case of any excessive volatility, according to Reuters.
• Westpac now forecasts the RBNZ to cut the cash rate to 3.25% by May 2025 following the NZ GDP data.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ, SA (Q3) -1.0% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -1.1%)
• New Zealand GDP Exp Based QQ, SA (Q3) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Rev. -0.8%)
• New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY, SA (Q3) -1.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.5%)
• New Zealand GDP Prod Based, Ann Avg (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. 0.6%)
• New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Dec) 62.3% (Prev. 64.9%)
• New Zealand ANZ Own Activity* (Dec) 50.3% (Prev. 48.0%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• “Israel-Hamas hostage deal not imminent”, according to Al Jazeera citing Jerusalem Post.
• “IDF: Sirens sound in several areas of central Israel, including Tel Aviv”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Senior Israeli official said IDF attacked in Sana’a (Yemen), according to Axios’ Ravid.
• Yemeni Houthi spokesperson posted “An important statement for the Yemeni armed forces in the coming hours.”, via X.
• “Arab media reported attacks in the area of the Yemeni capital Sana’a, the port of al-Hodeidah in the west of the country, and an oil facility in the Ras al-Issa area”, according to Kann News.

OTHER

• Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Rostov region starts fire at Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, according to the regional governor.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Marine Le Pen, the populist French leader, said on Thursday that she was preparing for an early presidential election to succeed Emmanuel Macron, whom she claimed is “finished or almost finished”, via The Telegraph.

DATA RECAP

LATAM

• Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad does not believe the proposal over military pension would be voted on this week, according to Reuters.
• Brazil Congress leaders reached an agreement to reject stricter rules for social benefit BPC, local press reports.
• BCB announces spot Dollar auction for December 19th; to offer up to USD 3bln.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

3C JAPAN

end

3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/

CHINA/GERMANY/SWEDEN

They have them dead to right; marks on the bottom of the ocean match perfectly with the ancor of the Chinese vessel

(zerohedge)

Swedish Police Board Chinese Bulk Carrier Suspected Of Undersea Cable Sabotage

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 12:25 PM

Swedish police have finally boarded the Yi Peng 3, a 225-meter bulk carrier suspected of sabotaging undersea fiber optic cables in the Baltic Sea last month. This was done at the invitation of Chinese authorities, according to Reuters. 

The Chinese bulk carrier is at the center of the sabotage investigation and threatens to push the limits of maritime law after EU investigators believe the ship deliberately drug its anchor along the Baltic seabed for more than 100 miles, damaging the Cinia C-Lion1 submarine cable between Finland and Germany. 

More from Reuters:

Swedish police said on Thursday they participated on board the Yi Peng 3 as observers only, while Chinese authorities conducted investigations. “In parallel, the preliminary investigation into sabotage in connection with two cable breaks in the Baltic Sea is continuing,” the police said in a statement. The actions taken on board the ship on Thursday were not part of the Swedish-led preliminary investigation, the police added.

Reuters noted: 

Western intelligence officials from multiple countries have said they are confident the Chinese ship caused the cuts to both cables. But they have expressed different views on whether these were accidents or could have been deliberate.

Shipping data from Marine Traffic shows Yi Peng 3 anchored in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden, along with several military vessels, including ones from Sweden and Germany. 

Media outlet ScandAsia cited underwater footage data showing drag marks from the bulk carrier’s anchor:

Experts have raised suspicions of sabotage attempts related to underwater cables near Læsø, following new underwater footage obtained by TV 2. The underwater footage reveals drag marks on the seabed coinciding with the mysterious maneuvers of the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3, which occurred just ten days prior to the cable breaks in the Baltic Sea.

Recent underwater drone operations conducted by TV 2, TV 2 Nord, and Swedish TV 4 off the coast of Læsø captured footage of a broad, dark line on the seabed. Drone operator Trond Larsen from Blueye Robotics confirmed that the marks align with the coordinates where the Yi Peng 3 passed over Danish data cables on November 7.

“There is a distinct mark that shares the same course as Yi Peng 3,” said Larsen while observing the sonar footage. This latest discovery has strengthened experts’ suspicions that the Yi Peng 3 may have participated in sabotage against three Danish-Swedish cables located on the seabed off Læsø. The 224-meter-long cargo ship carried out an unusual maneuver just ten days before the cables sustained damage.

Here’s our reporting on the ongoing situation:

• Baltic Undersea Data Cable ‘Disruption’ May Take Two Weeks To Repair
• Danish Navy Hunts Down Chinese Ship Suspected Of ‘Sabotaging’ Baltic Sea Cables
• NATO Flotilla Surrounds Chinese Ship Suspected Of Sabotaging EU Undersea Baltic Cables

FP’s Jay Solomon asked earlier this month: “Is World War III Already Here?”

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK

Leftist approvals collapse in the UK

(zerohedge)

Leftist Officials Move To Delay British Elections As Their Approval Ratings Collapse

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 02:45 AM

One of the most revealing narratives that surfaced during the 2024 US election campaign was the argument from establishment journalists that the Constitution and the voting system might be allowing “too much freedom” for the general public.  How can this be true?  Progressive activists claim that voter choice can be manipulated by abuses of free speech (disinformation) and that without controls on that speech the Constitution essentially has a built in self destruct mechanism.

Outlets like the New York Times made these arguments specifically in reference to the presidential bid of Donald Trump.  Trump, leftists assert, represents the rise of “far-right fascism” in America and the normal rules of the democratic process no longer apply.  They argue that he must be stopped at all costs.  

One could dismiss all this rhetoric as the coping and seething of sore losers, but it goes well beyond that.  

The self destructing democracy theory would be interesting, except that it’s driven completely by the arrogance, elitism and biases of political leftists hellbent on keeping power for themselves.  When a group of people believes that they represent the totality of the “greater good” and that their ideas should never be questioned or challenged because to do so is akin to heresy, that’s what we call zealotry.  This is exactly what progressives have become – So much so that across the western world they have deemed themselves righteous enough to delay or sabotage the election process.

We covered this problem in detail in our recent article Democracy Is Dead: A Coup Against Right Wing Movements Is Underway In Europe, focusing primarily on the exploitation of fearmongering over Russia in order the overturn the recent Romanian election in which a “right wing” candidate won the first round.  The rise of populist and conservative movements has triggered a progressive and globalist scramble to shut down or silence opposition parties and prevent them from winning elections fair and square. 

This trend has extended into the UK, with the British Labour Party making a move to delay local elections for up to a year using a bizarre loophole.  The ploy comes at a time when the public approval ratings for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party are at record lows.

Through a process of “reorganization” of local councils into larger regional bodies, Labour says annual elections (held in May) could be delayed up to a year in order to give local governments time to handle mergers.  The timing could not be more suspect; Labour candidates are considered unelectable in most quarters of England and the leftists are certain to lose significant power.  

According to recent surveys only 26% of Britons think Starmer is doing a good job.  Over 53% are disappointed with the Labour Party and the rest are unsure.  The reasons for the unpopularity are obvious – Starmer has gone full authoritarian with the utter destruction of British free speech.  Native English people are not allowed to criticize third world immigration programs or political officials and such comments online are likely to inspire a visit from police.  Protests against open immigration have been essentially banned, with many fearing arrest simply for participating.  

The problem for the political left is that they have spent the better part of the past four years pontificating about how they are the “guardians of democracy” while the right wing is a threat to free elections.  They can’t be authoritarian and also allow normal elections to continue.  The public will simply vote them out of office at the first opportunity.  They will have to destroy the very democracy they claim to defend.   

These kinds of polling numbers signal the death knell of a political party and the leftists know it.  Nigel Farage’s Reform Party which launched in 2018 is on the rise, meaning progressive and globalist programs to forcefully introduce thousands of third world migrants into every rural and semi-rural county could be disrupted.  Furthermore, Reform leaders could also disrupt Starmer’s programs of censorship and intimidation, which is the only tool the Labour has left to stay in control.    

Leftists suggest that the common voter cannot be trusted to elect officials with their best interests in mind; they have to be forced to vote the right way (for leftist candidates).  The next stage is, of course, to delay or end elections altogether when the majority of the public is at odds with the ruling party’s agenda.  

END

UK

Pound Slides After “Dovish Hold” By Bank of England

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 07:43 AM

One day after the Fed’s furiously hawkish pivot, which prompted many to ask why cut rates if Powell will just complain about the risk of rising inflation (thanks to his bizarro jumbo rate cut just three months ago which it is now clear was entirely meant to usher in president Kamala), moments ago the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, as expected, but with more policymakers voting for a cut than had been expected, one which sent the pound lower as this was seen as a dovish hold as three members wanted a cut, while the market expected an 8-1 split.

https://twitter.com/bankofengland/status/1869714651996450986

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision, which was in line with economists’ forecasts, came a day after the latest data showed that UK inflation rose to 2.6% last month from 2.3% in October.

The BoE cut rates by a quarter point at its previous meeting in November, but signalled at the time that another cut was unlikely until 2025. It has cut rates twice in 2024.

The majority of rate-setters said the recent increase in wage and price growth had “added to the risk of inflation persistence”. But three out of the nine MPC members, deputy governor Dave Ramsden, Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra , voted for a quarter-point reduction because of sluggish demand and a weaker labor market. For the market, which was expecting just 1 dissenter, this was seen as a rather dovish twist.

The BOE said that a “gradual approach” on rate cuts remains right and they can’t commit to when or by how much rates will be cut in 2025. It said the labor market is coming back into balance. However, the bulk of the committee continued to worry that inflationary pressures were resolving only slowly and in fact headline inflation is expected to rise slightly. The overall guidance remained that policy needed to stay restrictive for sufficiently long to bring inflation back to target.

“The magnitude and direction of any such impacts would depend on a range of factors that were at present unknown, including the total package of economic policies to be delivered in the United States, their timing and any subsequent policy responses from other countries” the bank noted.

They said that risks around trade policy uncertainty have “increased materially” given the proposals from the incoming Trump administration on tariffs.

The minutes to the BOE December meeting showed that staff now expect zero growth in the final quarter of this year, weaker than forecast in November, reaffirming the dovish stance.

“Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined,” the bank said on Friday.

It added that risks to global growth and inflation from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty had “increased materially” — an apparent reference to US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to increase tariffs on imports to the US.

The BoE also continues to be skeptical about official wage data – on which markets placed huge emphasis earlier in the week. It said while earnings data did pick up in October, the official number “has tended to be more volatile than other wage indicators”. In fact, it said the information from its regional agents suggested 2025 settlements are likely to be in the 3-4% range (vs. ONS data at north of 5% in October).

In terms of forward guidance the MPC stuck to its previous message of gradual approach to easing. In terms of changes in assessment from the last meeting, the Committee noted that while inflation outcomes have been slightly higher than expected, it now judges that the labour market is “broadly in balance”. On the activity side, the MPC now expects 0% q/q GDP growth in Q4, below the November MPR projections

To re-iterate our call assumes that following a pause today, the Bank will cut again (-25bp) in February. Overall, we expect the Bank to cut with quarterly frequency in H1-25 before accelerating to cutting at every meeting in H2-25 brining Bank Rate to 3.25% by end-25.

The pound dipped to $1.259 after the BoE’s decision, though it was still up 0.2% on the day.

The yield on rate-sensitive two-year government bonds fell slightly to 4.46 per cent, flat on the day, with analysts citing the unexpectedly high number of dissents within the MPC.

Traders also have been reining in expectations of cuts next year. Immediately before Thursday’s MPC meeting, investors were betting on two quarter-point cuts next year. In October they had expected four.

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/ISRAEL/USA

END

ISRAEL///USA/YEMEN WEDNESDAY EVENING

it looks like it must be Israel that will knock out these idiots. The USA seems very distracted.

Two ballistic missiles were fired by Yemen into Tel Aviv. One was knocked out of the sky but the other lands in a school in Ramat Gan, a suburb of TelAviv. Luckily the missile was fired at night and no children were in the school. Israel will attack Yemen showing no mercy

5 commentaries

(JerusalemPost)

Sirens blare across central Israel following missile fired from Yemen

This is the second time this week that Yemen targeted Israel. An initial drone was fired toward the country on Monday.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 19, 2024 02:50Updated: DECEMBER 19, 2024 03:40

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-834059&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241217_aa84504b51132e177071b3b0f984430fcda56c53&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Sirens sounded across central Israel due to a projectile that was fired from Yemen, the IDF announced during the early hours of Thursday morning.

It added that the missile was intercepted by the IAF before crossing into Israeli territory, and sirens were sounded due to the possibility of falling debris.

Magen David Adom (MDA) said that no one was wounded due to debris from the firing. However, several people reported panic attacks or minor injuries on the way to their safe rooms.

A short while later, Israeli media reported damage to a school and several cars in Ramat Efal, though the IDF has yet to confirm this.

The interception caused explosions to be heard across the country.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1869547006789881947

Missiles from Yemen

This is the second time this week that Yemen targeted Israel. An initial drone was fired toward the country on Monday.

An IDF missile boat intercepted the Yemen drone at the time, and Israel’s military noted that it had not crossed into Israeli territory. 

“Occupied Jaffa “Tel Aviv” is not safe for Zionists,” Nasruddin Amer, chairman of the Houthi-backed Yemeni state news agency Saba, posted on X/Twitter, along with a photo of what he called “A new failure of the Zionist air defense.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1869547006789881947

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This is a developing story.

END

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/ LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

IDF strikes Houthi targets in Yemen after downing missile fired at central Israel

Power stations, oil terminal said to be among targeted sites that military says the Iran-backed rebels used for military ops; falling debris causes damage in Ramat Gan but no injuries

• 8min ago IDF confirms striking Yemen, says it hit targets used by Houthis ‘for military ops’
• 25min agoWhite House spokesman chokes up while reciting prayer for hostages at Israeli Embassy Hanukkah event
• 1hr agoHouthi media reports some strikes targeted power stations in Sanaa, Red Sea oil terminal
• 1hr agoUS official: Strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen not being carried out by Americans

By ToI StaffToday, 1:23 am

A screenshot of a video showing an interception of a missile fired from Yemen, early on the morning of December 19, 2024. (Screenshot: X; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

IDF confirms striking Yemen, says it hit targets used by Houthis ‘for military ops’

The IDF confirms striking in Yemen, saying Israeli fighter jets struck Houthi targets following the Iran-backed rebel group’s repeated missile and drone attacks on Israel.

According to an IDF statement, the targets struck by the warplanes were “used by Houthi forces for their military operations.”

“Attacking these targets harms the terrorist authorities by preventing the exploitation of infrastructure for military and terror purposes, including transferring Iranian weaponry to the region,” the military says.

The IDF also says that “with Iran’s guidance and funding,” the Houthis have acted together with Iran-backed militias over the past year to attack Israel, “undermine regional stability and disrupt global shipping.”

“The IDF is determined to continue acting and striking whoever threatens citizens of the State of Israel, at any distance required.”

END

Houthi media reports some strikes targeted power stations in Sanaa, Red Sea oil terminal

By AP and ToI StaffToday, 4:32 am

Yahya Saree, military spokesman for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebel group, speaks during a rally in solidarity with Palestine and Lebanon, in Sanaa, on November 22, 2024. (Mohammed Huwais/AFP)

The Houthi-controlled satellite channel al-Masirah reports that some of the strikes in Yemen targeted power stations in the capital, as well as the Ras Isa oil terminal on the Red Sea.

A Houthi military spokesman meanwhile announces that the Iran-backed rebel group will give “an important statement” in the coming hours, amid the strikes in Yemen and shortly after the IDF said it intercepted a missile fired from there toward central Israel.

END

Partially intercepted Houthi missile warhead crashed into Ramat Gan school, IDF finds

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 19, 2024 13:40

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-834110&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241217_aa84504b51132e177071b3b0f984430fcda56c53&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

An initial investigation by the Israel Air Force found that part of the warhead from the missile fired from Yemen exploded and caused damage to a school in Ramat Gan following a partial interception, the military said on Thursday. 

END

same story as above from zerohedge

Houthis Claim Hypersonic Missile Strike On Israel, Prompting IDF Airstrikes On Yemen

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 07:20 AM

Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed on X that Iran-backed Yemeni Armed Forces launched two hypersonic ballistic missiles targeting military sites in the Jaffa region near Tel Aviv. Israel reported intercepting the missile strike, which was followed hours later by Israeli fighter jets pounding key infrastructure in Yemen. 

“Statement of the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the implementation of a qualitative military operation targeting two qualitative and sensitive military targets of the Israeli enemy in the occupied Jaffa region with two hypersonic ballistic missiles of the Palestine 2 type,” Saree wrote on X (translated via Google). 

twitter.com/army21ye/status/1869646686642897116?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%

Israel’s military announced the interception of a missile launched from Yemen: “Rocket and missile sirens were sounded following the possibility of falling debris from the interception,” adding that a missile had been intercepted before entering Israeli airspace. 

“I urge the leaders of the Houthi organization to see, to understand and to remember: whoever raises a hand against the state of Israel, his hand will be cut off,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said, referring to the retaliatory strikes. 

AP News reported that Israeli retaliatory airstrikes were in “two waves of strikes in a preplanned operation that began early Thursday and involved 14 fighter jets.”

“The military said the first wave of strikes targeted Houthi infrastructure at the ports of Hodeida, Salif and the Ras Isa oil terminal on the Red Sea,” AP noted, adding, “Then, in a second wave of strikes, the military said its fighter jets targeted Houthi energy infrastructure in Sanaa.”

US forces were active in the skies of Yemen to start the week, launching a series of strikes on the Houthi rebels, according to US Central Command. 

Thursday’s exchange of strikes between the Iranian-backed Houthis and Israel implies that Tehran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” remains active in the region, with the potential to escalate further. The rebels maintain a firm hold on the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

In the short term, the threats to the homeland are rising, as described by Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, an Associate Professor and Research Faculty with Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University: 

“Radicalized Hamas members may increasingly look to Al-Qaeda as a more viable destination for their operations, given Al-Qaeda’s growing capabilities and its strategic ties to Iran. This shift could significantly strengthen Al-Qaeda’s position in the region, making it an even more formidable threat to Western and Israeli interests in the future.” 

Given the turmoil in the Middle East and the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous handling of the region, the risk of a domestic attack is undoubtedly rising. Open borders have allowed an invasion of illegal aliens, some of whom may be pre-trained terrorists. Voters gave Trump a clear mandate: restore national security.

END

Times of Israel

Lucky no children in school as the missile fired in the dead of night

(Times of Israel)

‘Lucky there were no children’: School near Tel Aviv ravaged by Houthi missile warhead

Ramat Gan mayor estimates damage at $11 million, says collapsed building will be rebuilt; visiting site, education minister says students will be back in same school soon

A multistory school building in Ramat Gan that collapsed when it was hit by the rocket warhead from a partially intercepted ballistic missile fired at Israel by Houthi rebels in Yemen will be torn down and rebuilt, the city’s mayor said Thursday as he visited the site and locals assessed the heavy damage.

Ramat Gan Mayor Carmel Shama-Hacohen estimated the damage at NIS 40 million ($11 million) and said the Ramat Ef’al elementary school would get a replacement building.

The Israel Defense Forces initially said that overnight it intercepted a missile fired at central Israel by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis. It said sections from the missile or from an interceptor fell to the ground, with one chunk landing on the main building of the school, demolishing it.

Later Thursday, however, the military said that according to an initial probe, the school was likely hit by the missile warhead after a partial interception.

There were no injuries in the incident, though parked cars in the area were damaged by falling debris.

The missile set off sirens in the central region, sending millions of Israelis to bomb shelters in the middle of the night.

Students will be transferred to another school in the meantime, Shama-Hacohen said, and the city’s psychological services will provide support.

“Fortunately, the damage was in the middle of the night,” he said.

Ramat Gan mayor Carmel Shama-Hacohen at the site where a ballistic missile fired from Yemen hit a school in Ramat Gan, December 19, 2024. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

Visiting the site Thursday, Education Minister Yoav Kisch assessed that the students would be able to return to their routine in a couple of weeks, as the school already has a recently built building available that can be used.

As the Houthis fired the missile, Israel Air Force jets were on their way to Yemen on a preplanned bombing mission, retaliation for previous missile and drone attacks.

The IAF strikes hit ports and the capital Sana’a, the IDF said, with the aim of preventing weapons deliveries from Iran to the Houthis.

Kisch said he was glad the Air Force “hit the Houthis hard, and the message that the long and strong arm of Israel will reach all arenas that act against us must resonate in the Middle East.”

Nir, a father of students at the school, told the Ynet news site that he had heard the bang as missile chunks hit the school during the night.

“It is awful,” he said. “It is lucky that there were no children here.”

Ravit Baranes, the mother of a student at the school and head of its parents’ committee, said students have mixed feelings about the incident, with some hoping it will mean no school for a few days.

Damage caused in a ballistic missile attack from Yemen at a school in Ramat Gan, December 19, 2024. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

Modiin Mayor Haim Bibas said that shrapnel, apparently from IDF interceptor missiles, had also fallen in two places in the central city, causing minor damage but no reported injuries.

Sirens didn’t sound in the city during the attack, and Bibas said he was in contact with the IDF’s Home Front Command to understand why.

The damage caused from a ballistic missile fired from Yemen, at a school in Ramat Gan, December 19, 2024. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

Two small interceptor fragments were also found outside the Knesset building in Jerusalem, a spokesman said, adding that “no damage was caused and the fragments of the interceptor were removed from the scene by Israel Police sappers.”

The Houthis have launched over 200 missiles and 170 drones at Israel in the past year, claiming they were doing so in support of Gaza, where Israel has been battling Palestinian terror group Hamas since it led an October 7, 2023, cross-border onslaught on the country that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw 251 hostages taken to Gaza.

According to the IDF, the vast majority of Houthi missiles did not reach Israel or were intercepted by the military and Israeli allies in the region, though several have hit buildings and one killed a civilian in Tel Aviv.

end

JERUSALEM POST

same story as above. Israel strikes 8 ships and this will block all entries into the port. Seems that the USA strikes from Biden do nothing but the uSA strikes are lethal

(JerusalemPost)

While Houthi missile inbound, IAF jets flew to strike Yemen

The strikes began less than an hour after the IDF intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward central Israel by the Houthis.

By SHIR PERETS, YONAH JEREMY BOB, AMICHAI STEINDECEMBER 19, 2024 03:51Updated: DECEMBER 19, 2024 12:47

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3817846&url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-834061Israel Air Force jets depart to strike Yemen’s Houthis. December 19, 2024. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

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Israel Air Force (IAF) fighter jets struck Houthi terror targets in the capital of Sana’a in Yemen during the early hours of Thursday morning, as 14 aircraft were already in the air as Yemen fired a ballistic missile towards Israel, the military announced. 

The IDF added that the targets Israel struck were used by the Houthis for military purposes, which included smuggling Iranian weapons into the country. The IDF also confirmed that ports and energy infrastructure in Sana’a were hit during the strikes. 

A source close to the matter told The Jerusalem Post that Israel gave the US notice prior to the strike in Yemen and that the purpose of the strike was to disable all three Houthi ports in Yemen. 

The IDF cited that the US has also attacked Yemen recently, but that given ongoing attacks from the Houthis, “We decided to counter-attack.”

According to the IDF, the Houthis have fired over 200 ballistic missiles and over 170 drones at Israel, with most being shot down by the US or Israel but 22 having penetrated into Israel.

https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1869565618774778022?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18

In July, one Israeli was killed in Tel Aviv by a Houthi drone from Yemen.

The IDF decided to attack before the Wednesday overnight attack, and in fact, the 14 aircraft that attacked Yemen were already on their way for the 1,800-kilometer flight to Yemen at the time that the ballistic missile came close to Israel’s territory.

The aircraft appear to have left Israel around 1:00 a.m.

The IDF was unclear on whether the Houthis detected the attack but said there was no clear evidence that this had occurred.

---

---

At 3:15 a.m., the first wave of the air force’s attack hit the Yemen coastal area.

At 4:30 a.m., the second wave of the air force’s attack hit the Houthi capital of Sana.

All 14 aircraft returned safely.

The IDF said it had attacked dozens of targets in five main areas.

There were attacks in Hodeidah, Ras Isa, other coast areas, and many smaller ports, such as Al-Salif. Each target area had dozens of targets, especially Sana’a, regarding Houthi electricity and oil.

In addition, eight special large ships were attacked.

Destroying those ships could shut down those ports because these ships can block certain areas and also are often required to pull in other ships to port.

The IDF said that it could take time for the Houthis to find replacements for such unique ships.

Further, the IDF said all the areas attacked helped the Houthis fund their war items and weapons.

The strikes on the terror group were carried out with the direction of the Intelligence Directorate and the Israeli Navy, the IDF said.

Notably, it added that the airstrikes began shortly after the Houthis fired a projectile from Yemen toward central Israel during the early hours of Thursday morning. The projectile was then intercepted by the IAF.

The airstrikes in Yemen reportedly killed nine, Houthi-controlled Al Masirah TV said. 

Seven were killed in a strike on the port of Salif and the rest in two strikes on the Ras Issa oil facility, said Al Masirah, both located in the western province of Hodeidah.

The strikes also targeted two central power stations south and north of the capital, Sana’a, it added.

Katz threatens whoever plans on harming Israel 

Katz later reiterated his commitment to operating against all threats posed to the citizens of Israel.

“Last night, we struck the Houthis in Yemen,” the defense minister said.

“I warn the leaders of the Houthi terrorist organization: Israel’s long arm will reach you as well. Those who raise a hand against the State of Israel will have their hand severed, and those who harm us will be struck sevenfold.”

“We will strike with force and will not allow attacks or threats against the State of Israel.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

/SYRIA//ISRAEL/OPINION

Israel faces a once-in-a-lifetime chance in Syria – it would be a shame to miss it – opinion

The actions taken by the IDF in recent days show that Jerusalem is determined to safeguard that border and its people from any spillover of internal fighting in Syria.

By HARLEY LIPPMANDECEMBER 19, 2024 01:53

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fopinion%2Farticle-834009&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241217_aa84504b51132e177071b3b0f984430fcda56c53&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Within hours of the disintegration of Syria as we know it, it became clear that Israel was already taking concrete steps to adjust to the new reality. Less than 24 hours after Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi conceded that Assad’s regime had fallen to the insurgent opposition and rebel forces, the IDF announced it had moved troops into the buffer zone that had been separating the countries since the 1974 armistice; captured strategic military positions along the border; and Syrian reports indicated that multiple bombing runs had been carried out by Israel’s air force, destroying Syrian and Iranian caches and facilities before they would have been taken by one of Syria’s armed opposition factions.

All of these actions make sense. Most are logical, short-term precautions and the bombing of military infrastructure is an opportunity well seized. However, while they are all immediate military steps, none of them are groundbreaking strategic moves. Syria’s current collapse also presents Israel with a strategic opportunity as the region is being reshaped for years to come.

True, it is easy to write ideas that are deemed worthless as reality unfolds. Only weeks ago it seemed extremely unlikely the Syrian opposition would manage to topple Assad’s regime within days, after failing to do so for almost a decade. But while caution is necessary and healthy skepticism welcomed, here are three areas Israel’s decision makers should be looking at to see how they can best serve Israel’s interests.

First, disrupting Iran’s supply routes to Israel’s borders. For years, Tehran had armed its proxies there and in the region, resulting in the still ongoing war the Jewish state has been fighting on multiple fronts. In many ways, Syria was a central part of this effort, acting as a staging ground for Iranian logistical and military efforts in the region.

With Syria’s collapse, Israel must strive to sever the supply routes established from Tehran to Beirut, by land or by sea, as well as force out any “advisors” from Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who happen to still be in the area.

SECOND IS the question of Syria’s internationally recognized borders. Until now, the country was treated as a single state based on the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, even after the central government lost control over many parts to the rebel and opposition factions. The collapse of Assad’s regime has the potential of changing what Syria is as a country.

For Israel, this could present an opportunity to improve its position along the border with Syria, as the IDF is already doing, but in a more permanent manner. Additionally, such a scenario could reintroduce the question of an independent Kurdish region to the world – with the Kurds in eastern Syria already receiving significant military backing from the US.

Who will shape Syria in the coming years?

The third and largest question is: What are the powers that will play a role in shaping Syria? Currently, one US dollar is worth some 13,000 Syrian pounds. Whoever rules in Damascus will need a lot of economic aid to restore Syria as an independent country with a future for its people.

For years, Iran and Russia pulled the strings behind the scenes of Assad’s presidential palace. This won’t necessarily be the case in a month, a year or five years from now. Turkey is obviously highly invested, actively supporting Syrian factions in the north of the country, near its own border. European countries who will see an opportunity to send millions of Syrian refugees home will throw their hat into the mix. While a peace treaty between Jerusalem and Damascus might not be in the works now, it is in Israel’s interest to back-channel and work with those who finance Syria’s rebuilding.

The events of the past week aren’t merely dramatic – they are historic. December 2024 marks the end of the Assad family’s terrorizing rule over Syria, which started in November 1970 when Gen. Hafez al-Assad led a coup d’état and made himself president. But it would be foolish to only look at these days as the end of one era; they are also the start of a new page for Syria and its people.

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Israel has a 100-kilometer border with Syria. The actions taken by the IDF in recent days show that Jerusalem is determined to safeguard that border and its people from any spillover of the internal fighting in Syria. At the same time, Israel’s leadership must see what strategic gains are to be made over the next months and years, as Syria emerges from the fighting to a new dawn, and an extremely pro-Israel US president and administration enter the White House. An opportunity like this comes once in a lifetime – it would be a shame to miss it.

The writer is the CEO and founder of Genesis 10, and serves as a board member of the Partnership for Peace Fund of the US Agency for International Development (MEPPA) – the largest investment by the US Congress in peace-building in the Middle East.

END

I

ISRAEL/SYRIA

trouble ahead in Syria: they are heading towards sharia law and also they want to throw out the west

(zerohedge)

US Looking At ‘Getting People On The Ground In Syria’ To Engage HTS: Blinken

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 01:05 PM

That didn’t take long at all… the Biden White House is already thinking about normalizing relations with al-Qaeda splinter faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who still has a $10 million US bounty on his head for the fact that he fought with AQI and ISIS.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US is receiving positive signs from the hardline Islamist group now in control of Damascus and major Syrian cities, to the point that the White House is thinking of dispatching officials to engage the new rulers.

“We’ve been in direct contact, and we’re also looking at getting people on the ground in Syria,” Blinken said Thursday in a Bloomberg television interview. “We need to see concrete action, not simply positive declarations.”

His reference to people on the ground presumably means dispatching top Middle East envoys such as Brett McGurk or Amos Hochstein, or other diplomats who have long worked on regional problems.

At this moment some Congressional leaders who previously led to the way in imposing severe sanctions on the Assad government are calling for those very sanctions to be removed now that Assad is out of power.

While Jolani has claimed that Syria’s ‘diversity’ and pluralist ethno-religious identity will be preserved and that he doesn’t intend to make Syria like Afghanistan, many Christians are in fear and unable to speak freely for fear of the hardline Islamists now in control.

Blinken has previously called for HTS to demonstrate that it will protect women and religious minorities, including Alawites, Christians, Shia and Druze. But so far signs on the ground are not at all positive in this direction…

https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1869596167262105976

Max Abrahms

@MaxAbrahms

Speaking in Damascus, Julani said that the regime’s morality police will operate under the Minister of Internal Affairs and be under the supervision of religious clerics and mullahs. The morality police’s job will be to ensure that the public implements Sharia Law.

11:10 PM · Dec 18, 2024

·

6,255 Views

Things are relatively quiet on the streets of Damascus, apart from jihadist groups occasionally intimidating Christian neighborhoods with black-flag waiving ‘patrols’ and convoys. But in the Hama and Latakia countryside areas there have been reports of targeted killings of Alawites and Christians.

During Blinken’s Bloomberg television interview that a potential Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement is back on the table. He said that with Hezbollah and Iran now greatly weakened, chances have improved for peace in Gaza.

What do the Syrian ‘rebels’ think of America?…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1867021660106395914

“We’ve all been fanning out, working with all of the different partners who can make a difference,” Blinken said. But for well over a year, the hoped-for hostage exchange deal and truce with Hamas has proved elusive.

IRAN/ISRAEL/UN

Danny Danon calls for UN to designate IRGC as a terrorist organization

Danny Danon addresses UN in Farsi, calls for action against Iran and support for peace.

By HANNAH SARISOHNDECEMBER 18, 2024 22:13Updated: DECEMBER 18, 2024 22:18

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Finternational%2Farticle-834048&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241217_aa84504b51132e177071b3b0f984430fcda56c53&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon addressed the Iranian regime directly in Farsi during Wednesday’s session of the United Nations Security Council, saying to not miss this rare, historic opportunity and “take action now.”

“I am telling the Iranian people, we know the cost of freedom and the courage it demands,” Danon said before the Security Council. “Your fight is not just for yourselves but for the millions of lives the regime has destabilized and destroyed. In your hands lie the power to restore the beautiful Iranian nation, to rebuild a land rich in history, culture and resilience.”

Danon was the last diplomat to speak in Wednesday’s session centered on the Palestinian question and Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas. Earlier in the session, Michael Levy, brother of Israeli hostage Or Levy, testified before the council about his family’s experience as a hostage family. 

The chance before us is clear, Danon said, to finally end the Islamic regime of Iran’s aspirations for a Shiite supremacist Empire, the chance to “liberate the world from the most corrupt, most violent, most destabilizing regime.”

“Israel has acted decisively,” he said, by striking terror networks that once “cast a shadow over our region.”

Securing regional peace

But the burden of securing peace does not rest on Israel’s shoulders alone, Dannon added.  

Iran’s provocations continue to escalate, he continued, with shameless threats about its nuclear ambitions. Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq also remain active and deadly, Danon said, noting “this is not a localized threat.”

“The Islamic regime of Iran is a danger to the entire world. The recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s nuclear progression, alongside the recent letter from the UK, France and Germany, highlighting Iran’s and I quote, ‘significant non compliance,’ were cries for immediate action,” according to Danon. “This is not about a hypothetical future. The danger is already here, looming on the horizon.”

Danon urged the Council to implement “crushing” sanctions to suffocate Iran’s ability to fund its proxies and called on the UN body to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, calling these steps “imperative.”

Danon then turned to Syria, linking Assad’s leadership to the IRGC. 

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“We are now approaching the holiday of Hanukkah. It is a time of reflection and resilience, a time to draw lessons from history,” Danon concluded. “Hanukkah tells the story of two miracles, the first of the oil lasting for eight days in the temple. It was a divine act beyond human control.”

But the second miracle, he said, was the triumph of the Maccabees over the mighty Greek empire. 

“With a statement to human courage, to the will of a small but determined people who refused to bow to tyranny,” he said. “Just weeks ago, we saw a cruel and evil regime also overthrown by the determined population, which had instead been oppressed for decades. We all know what Assad did to his people.”

“Let me be unequivocal,” Danon continued. “Israel has no intention of occupying Syria or parts of Syria. We are not empire builders. We are defenders.

Defenders of “our people, our borders and our right to live in peace,” he said. 

end

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/HAMAS/WEST BANK

end

ISRAEL //WEST BANK

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS

END

SYRIA/

END

SYRIA

END

SYRIA/TURKEY

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

Sperm counts has declined hugely due to the vaccine

(zerohedge)

Sperm Count Has Declined Almost 50% In Men Across The Globe In Recent Decades

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 05:00 AM

Via The Mind Unleashed,

Imagine if humanity’s future were slipping through our fingers—literally. For decades, the world has been fixated on the threats we can see: climate change, pandemics, economic upheaval. Yet, quietly, an invisible crisis has been brewing inside our bodies. Sperm counts in men have plummeted by nearly 50% worldwide in just a few decades. This isn’t science fiction; it’s happening right now.

The implications are staggering. Fertility rates are dropping, and with them, questions about the long-term health of the human race loom larger than ever. Dr. Hagai Levine, a leading researcher on the subject, called it a “canary in a coal mine” moment, warning, “We have a serious problem on our hands that could threaten the survival of humanity.”

But why is this happening? And what can we do about it? To understand the gravity of this issue, we need to look at the numbers, the causes, and most importantly, the solutions. This isn’t just a men’s health crisis – it’s a call for global action.

How Big Is the Problem? The Numbers Don’t Lie

The numbers are as stark as they are shocking. According to a comprehensive 2022 meta-analysis led by Dr. Hagai Levine and published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, sperm counts among men worldwide have declined by an alarming 51.6% between 1973 and 2018. This means that within just a few decades, average sperm counts have dropped from 101 million per milliliter to 49 million per milliliter—a figure perilously close to the threshold of infertility.

What’s even more concerning is the pace at which this decline is accelerating. Between 1973 and 2000, sperm counts were dropping by approximately 1.1% per year. However, since 2000, that rate has more than doubled, with an annual decline of 2.6%. As Dr. Levine explains, “This is a major public health crisis that demands urgent global action.”

A Worldwide Phenomenon

What makes this trend particularly alarming is its global scale. Initially, research focused primarily on men from Western countries like the United States and Europe, but recent studies have confirmed that this decline is not confined to one region. Men from South America, Asia, and Africa are also experiencing significant reductions in sperm count.

While the numbers vary slightly between regions, the downward trend remains consistent, signaling a universal issue rather than an isolated anomaly. This global reach underscores the urgency of understanding what is driving the decline and what can be done to address it.

Beyond the Numbers

The implications of this decline extend far beyond fertility concerns. Sperm count has long been considered a biomarker for overall male health. A lower count can often signal underlying health problems, including hormonal imbalances, chronic diseases, and even an increased risk of mortality. In other words, the sperm crisis isn’t just about reproduction—it’s a reflection of men’s declining health worldwide.

But why is this happening? What factors are conspiring to drive this unprecedented drop in sperm counts across the globe? To understand the full scope of this crisis, we need to look deeper into the environmental, lifestyle, and societal factors at play.

Unpacking the Causes: What’s Really Going On?

The dramatic decline in sperm counts isn’t just a biological curiosity—it’s a symptom of deeper systemic issues tied to our environment, lifestyle, and modern habits. While researchers are still piecing together the full puzzle, several key factors have emerged as likely culprits behind this global crisis. One of the most pressing concerns is the increasing presence of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our everyday lives. Found in plastics, pesticides, and even personal care products, EDCs interfere with the body’s hormonal balance.

Substances like bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates mimic or block hormones, particularly testosterone, which is critical for sperm production. Dr. Shanna Swan, a prominent epidemiologist, highlights this issue in her work, stating that exposure to these chemicals during fetal development can have lasting effects on male fertility. Lifestyle factors also play a significant role. Rising levels of obesity, poor diets, and sedentary habits have created a perfect storm for declining reproductive health. High-fat, processed foods, coupled with low physical activity, can lead to metabolic issues that negatively impact sperm quality.

Stress and poor sleep habits further exacerbate the problem, contributing to hormonal imbalances that disrupt sperm production. Environmental pollution adds another layer of complexity. Airborne toxins, heavy metals, and microplastics are increasingly linked to reproductive health issues. Studies have shown that men living in heavily polluted areas often have significantly lower sperm counts compared to those in cleaner environments. This suggests that environmental degradation is not only a global problem but also a deeply personal one affecting human health.

While these factors highlight individual vulnerabilities, the broader societal implications cannot be ignored. Modern conveniences and industrial advancements have come at a cost, introducing chemicals and pollutants into every facet of daily life. The result? A steady decline in male reproductive health that mirrors humanity’s larger environmental struggles. The causes may be varied, but they point to one undeniable truth: this crisis is largely man-made. Understanding the underlying factors is the first step toward addressing them—but solutions will require sweeping changes in how we interact with our bodies and our environment.

Why Should You Care? The Bigger Picture

The steep decline in sperm count goes far beyond fertility issues—it reflects a deeper crisis in public health and societal stability. Studies have shown that low sperm counts often correlate with other health problems, including reduced testosterone levels, obesity, and an increased risk of chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. These associations suggest that declining sperm health is not just an isolated problem but part of a broader pattern of declining male health.

On a societal level, the implications are equally concerning. Falling fertility rates are already straining economies in countries like Japan and South Korea, where aging populations outnumber younger generations. If sperm counts continue to decline at their current pace, more nations may face similar demographic challenges, leading to labor shortages, reduced economic growth, and increasing pressure on healthcare systems.

This isn’t just a men’s health crisis—it’s a global health concern that touches everyone. Addressing the root causes is essential, not just for preserving fertility but for safeguarding the health and well-being of future generations. The decline in sperm count is a wake-up call that demands immediate attention, both on an individual and systemic level.

What Can Be Done? Practical Steps and Solutions

The alarming decline in sperm count may seem overwhelming, but there are actionable steps individuals and societies can take to address the issue. While reversing decades of environmental and lifestyle changes will take time, small shifts can make a significant difference.

On a personal level, lifestyle improvements are key. A balanced diet rich in antioxidants, healthy fats, and essential nutrients can promote sperm health. Foods like nuts, seeds, fish, and vegetables have been shown to support reproductive health. Regular exercise, managing stress, and avoiding smoking or excessive alcohol consumption are also critical in maintaining hormonal balance and sperm quality.

Reducing exposure to harmful chemicals is another essential step. Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), found in plastics, pesticides, and even cosmetics, are major contributors to declining fertility. Simple changes, such as using glass containers instead of plastic, eating organic produce, and choosing natural personal care products, can help minimize exposure.

At a societal level, stricter regulation of harmful substances is crucial. Governments and industries need to prioritize reducing the use of chemicals like BPA and phthalates, which disrupt hormonal health. Public health campaigns that raise awareness about the impact of pollution and unhealthy lifestyles on fertility are also essential for driving collective action.

Turning Awareness Into Action

The decline in sperm count is a complex and urgent challenge, but it’s also an opportunity to make meaningful changes. This issue is not just about reproductive health; it reflects the broader impact of modern lifestyles and environmental choices on human well-being. By addressing the root causes—chemical exposure, poor lifestyle habits, and environmental degradation—we can pave the way for a healthier future.

Experts like Dr. Shanna Swan and Dr. Hagai Levine emphasize the need for global action, not just on a personal level but through systemic change. Governments must regulate harmful substances more strictly, industries need to adopt safer practices, and individuals can play their part by making healthier lifestyle choices.

The path forward requires awareness, collaboration, and decisive action. The crisis of declining sperm counts is a warning, but it’s also a chance to rewrite our future. Humanity has faced monumental challenges before, and with the right steps, this too can be addressed. The time to act is now—for the health of individuals, families, and the generations to come.

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

72 studies/reports pulled together from 2021 to present shows that Bancel Bourla Malone mRNA vaccines were ineffective, plunged to negative effectiveness with boosters causing increased infection risk

Extensive Efficacy Studies that Rebuke Vaccine Mandates by Dr. Paul Alexander; there have been additional studies since then also showing that the Malone Bourla et al. mRNA vaccine fails & is deadly

Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 19

READ IN APP

This document is for POTUS Trump, Makary, Kennedy Jr., Bhattacharya et al. I wanted to make it easy for them to just print this and use it to back up their OFFICIAL statements on January 20th, 2025, when they officially call for a complete cessation of all Malone Bourla et al. mRNA technology gene transfection vaccines. I support POTUS Trump so I am doing all I can to help him.

Again, before presenting the study-by-study evidence, I wish to remind Dr. Makary of FDA (once approved in confirmation as nominated by POTUS Trump), RFK Jr. of HHS (once also approved), Dr. Jay Bhattacharya (NIH) (once approved) etc. that they need not look too far, it is right here in this one document, one substack. Many use this one substack (published) document (published review paper), even in the US congress, house, Senate to inform their hearings. They (FDA, NIH, HHS etc.) have enough evidence here to pull/withdraw all the mRNA vaccines from US market to safeguard the public, within hour one of being sworn in on January 20th 2025. I hope this helps them.

How did we get here? Well, the data accumulated fast in 2021 straight out of the gate (right as the mRNA-LNP platform transfection injections were rolled out) in terms of the negative efficacy and negative effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines and boosters and showed us that the vaccinated were at far greater risk of becoming infected (the more boosters, greater the risk) and going onto to severe illness than the unvaccinated. It was always a pandemic of the vaccinated. Scotland and UK presented us with troubling data very early on showing that the vaccinated were at significantly greater risk of infection.

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

The data presented in this substack is bullet-proof and comprehensive, and underpins that the mRNA transfection gene vaccines by Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech etc. (Malone, Bourla, Bancel, Sahin, Weissman, Kariko et al.) must be withdrawn from USA market and a hard stop implemented on day one of being sworn in into the new Trump administration, by FDA, NIH, HHS, NIAID, CDC on all mRNA technology and related mRNA vaccines.

There must be witnessed destruction and only after proven effective and safe, with 10 to 15 to 20 years of rodent, animal, human studies, ethical comparative effectiveness research, via methodologically strong, trustworthy high-quality randomized placebo controlled double/triple blinded trials, with proper clinical endpoints, proper baseline balance of trial arms, no imbalance in data loss and limited attrition, long duration of follow-up, ample sample size (powered), no stopping for benefit to limit stopping at a ‘random high’ and thus a biased estimate of effect size, using objective patient-important outcomes such as death, hospitalization, ICU, severity etc. and not antibody titers, not pseudo-science IMMUNO-BRIDGING (whatever that means), with proper statistical and procedural control of residual confounding e.g. the impact on treatment groups of co-morbidities, healthy vaccinee effect bias, natural exposure immunity, early treatments etc. and then and only then, do we look at this presently failed and deadly mRNA transfection vaccine again.

There must be no games with the mRNA vaccines from BioNTech, Moderna, Pfizer, no more politics, no games with Pfizer and Moderna CEOs, this is about life and death, and they have peddled death. POTUS Trump, HHS, FDA etc. must act NOW, NOW, to remove the mRNA vaccine from USA so as to protect the health and well-being of Americans. We have waited for POTUS Trump and there is no basis, NONE, zero evidence or underpinning whereby POTUS Trump can continue to claim that OWS was a success and that the mRNA transfection vaccines were successful. OWS and the mRNA vaccines were pure failures! To continue this would be misleading the nation. This has gone on too long! There are serious life and death implications with this, and we call on POTUS Trump to take the correct step and put a halt now!

Moreover, it is necessary to have ethical debate as to if the public, whether societies want this technology (not because you bring it means we want it) with proper understanding of the implications to the underlying genetic underpinnings of humanity being impacted by the mRNA technology e.g. reverse transcription etc. But many years of research will be needed to accomplish this. Only then.

I thus again call on POTUS Trump, on Robert Kennedy Jr. (HHS) and Martin Makary (FDA) and Jay Bhattacharya (NIH) to impose a hard and immediate stop of all mRNA vaccines on assuming their positions in the new Trump administration, within one hour. They know this data. It is time to act. They can hold agency meetings and talks but only after a hard stop is imposed. Anything short will be reckless and dangerous, leaving a deadly mRNA vaccine on market to cause more harm to Americans. Americans need relief and want this mRNA technology and transfection vaccine GONE!

EVOLS NEWS

NASA Astronauts Will Remain Stuck in Space Until at Least March Due to Yet Another Delay – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

Former Smollett state prosecutor Kim Foxx no longer allowed to practice law in Illinois – EVOLRead more…Trump taps former Senate candidate Herschel Walker for ambassador to the Bahamas – EVOLRead more…Tributes Pour in After ‘Beloved’ TV News Anchor Dies Suddenly at 28 – EVOLRead more…Liz Cheney Referred for Criminal Investigation – EVOLRead more…Alleged Manifesto of Wisconsin Christian School Shooter Reveals Radical Views – EVOLRead more…Who’s Funding the Radical Trump-Hating 65 Project? – Now We Know – EVOLRead more…Biden Claims His Campaign Was ‘Basically Scandal Free’ and People Have Thoughts – EVOLRead more…14 Venezuelan Gang Members Arrested in U.S. City After Stunning ‘Home Invasion’ – EVOLRead more…

SLAY NEWS

Major Study: ‘Unvaccinated Are Healthiest People on the Planet’A major peer-reviewed study has concluded that chronic illness and deadly diseases, such as cancer, are virtually non-existent in people “who’ve never received a vaccine in their life.”READ MORE

Euthanasia Deaths Surge 16% in CanadaThe Canadian government’s official statistics show that the number of citizens killed by euthanasia surged by 16% in 2023.READ MORE

University of Minnesota Offers to Pay ‘Gender Diverse’ 5-Year-Olds to Play with Dolls with Mix-and-Match GenitalsThe University of Minnesota has been offering to pay young children to play with “transgender” dolls featuring interchangeable genitals.READ MORE

NASA Astronauts to Remain Stranded in Space Until March Due to More DelaysNASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are to remain stranded in space for several weeks longer after more setbacks have delayed efforts to bring them home.READ MORE

Biden Blames Media’s Negative Reports on Economy for Kamala Harris’ LossLame-duck President Joe Biden has blamed the media’s accurate negative reporting on his economy for Kamala Harris’s election defeat last month.READ MORE

Trump Mocks Resignation of ‘Governor’ Justin Trudeau’s ‘Totally Toxic’ Top MinisterCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in serious political jeopardy after the resignation of his top deputy, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.READ MORE

Pollster Ann Selzer Accused of ‘Election Interference’ and ‘Insurrection’ for Final Iowa Poll Heavily Skewed for HarrisPollster Ann Selzer has been accused of attempting to interfere in the 2024 presidential election by publishing a skewed eleventh-hour poll in Iowa.READ MORE

Trump Considering Presidential Pardon for Embattled NYC Mayor Eric Adams: ‘Treated Pretty Unfairly’President Donald Trump has revealed that he’s considering a presidential pardon for New York City’s Democrat Mayor Eric Adams.READ MORE

NY Gov Hochul Calls for Abolishing Electoral College: ‘Time to Amend the Constitution’New York’s Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul is joining calls from the Left to abolish the Electoral College.READ MORE

Derek Chauvin Secures Pathway to Appeal as Judge Greenlights Examination of George Floyd’s Heart TissueA judge has greenlit the examination of George Floyd’s heart tissue and bodily fluids, providing a possible pathway for appeal against the conviction of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin.READ MORE

Federal Government to Hire 1200 New ‘Woke’ Bureaucrats Before Trump Returns to White HouseThe federal government is scrambling to hire as many “woke” bureaucrats as possible before President Donald Trump is sworn into power next month.READ MORE

Trump Drops Hammer on ‘Corrupt’ Judge Merchan Over ‘Deeply Conflicted’ Hush Money Ruling: ‘Completely Illegal, Psychotic’President Donald Trump has just dropped the hammer on Juan Merchan to remind the “corrupt” New York judge that he’s made a very powerful enemy by ruling against him in the so-called “hush money” case.READ MORE

Arizona TV News Anchor Ana Orsini Dies ‘Suddenly’ at 28Ana Orsini, a beloved local news anchor in Tucson, Arizona, has tragically died “suddenly,” her colleagues have announced.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

NASA Astronauts Will Remain Stuck in Space Until at Least March Due to Yet Another DelayNASA’s two stuck astronauts have been given more bad news as their space mission is extended again and are now not expected back until spring. Astronauts Butch Wilmore, 61, and Suni Williams, 58, left the International Space Station in June and expected to return home just eight days later. However, their mission grew months longer after NASA decided to send …READ THE FULL REPORTFormer Smollett state prosecutor Kim Foxx no longer allowed to practice law in IllinoisRules for thee but not for me? Well it didn’t quite work out for Kim Foxx and she’s no longer allowed to practice law in the state of Illinois. She was the Cook County State Attorney who tried to let Jussie Smollett off the hook. Now, because of her own unwillingness to do her mandatory compliance, her ability to practice …READ THE FULL REPORTTributes Pour in After ‘Beloved’ TV News Anchor Dies Suddenly at 28A local television news station in Arizona is mourning the death of its “beloved” 28-year-old anchor. Ana Orsini, who hosted the flagship morning show on the CBS affiliate KOLD News 13 in Tucson, Ariz., passed away last week after suffering a brain aneurysm, according to the station. Tributes to the Denver native poured in from her colleagues. “We lost a …READ THE FULL REPORTLiz Cheney Referred for Criminal InvestigationFormer Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming should be investigated for criminal charges due to her conduct on the January 6th Select Committee, according to a new House report. Committee on House Administration Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman Barry Loudermilk released a report on the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and the select committee. This report says that “former Representative Liz …READ THE FULL REPORTAlleged Manifesto of Wisconsin Christian School Shooter Reveals Radical ViewsThe killer in Monday’s school shooting in Madison, Wisconsin, has been identified as a 15-year-old girl who attended the Christian institution but left behind a purported “manifesto” packed with un-Christian beliefs. According to ABC News, the girl was named Natalie Rupnow, who also went by the name Samantha. No motive has been established for the Abundant Life Christian School shooting …READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

INDIA

END

CANADA

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0404 UP 54 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 156.88 UP 2,224 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2612 UP .0044

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4375 DOWN 0.0086 (CDN DOLLAR UP 86 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.71 PTS OR 0.36%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 112.04 OR 0.56%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.68%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 112.04 PTS OR 0.56%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.17 PTS OR 0.36%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.68%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 268.17 PTS OR 0.69%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2609.00

silver:$29.41

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 107.70 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM  WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.790% UP 8 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.0300% DOWN 2 AND 6/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.010 UP 8 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.483UP 9 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.318 UP 8 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0399 UP .0048 OR 48 basis points

USA/Japan: 154.28 UP 0.262 OR YEN IS DOWN 26 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6450 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0105 OR 105 BASIS pts  to 1.4355

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.3111 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.31106)

TURKISH LIRA:  35.10 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.035

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  4.566% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.738 UP 8 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.317 DOWN 4  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2594.60

SILVER AT 11;00: 29.02

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 93.79 PTS OR 1.14%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 272.71 OR 1.35%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 90.25 PTS OR 1.22%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 178.00 OR 1.53%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 613.99 OR 1.78%

WTI Oil price  71.09 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  73.64 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  103.00 ROUBLE UP 1 AND  67/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3185UP 11 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6450 UP 4 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.335 UP 11 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.128 UP 12 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0368 UP 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2508 DOWN 0.0058 OR 58 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.5780 UP 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 103.50

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157,36 UP 2.70 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4380 DOWN 0.0081 CDN DOLLAR UP 81 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 69,85

Brent OIL:  72.57

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 4.576

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS PTS to 4.746%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT  4.312

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.374 UP 15 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.151 UP 9 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 108.09 UP 34 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.09 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  103.50 UP 1 AND  35/100 roubles

GOLD  2,598.40 3:30 PM

SILVER: 29.13 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 15.37 PTS OR 0.03%

NASDAQ DOWN 98.81 PTS OR 0.47%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.97 DOWN 4.65 PTS OR 16.80%

GLD: $239.60 UP .34 OR .14%

SLV/ $26.52 DOWN 0.33 OR 1.23%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 111.63 PTS OR 0.45%

end

USA AFFAIRS

Bonds & Bitcoin Battered Despite Soft Data Slump; Gold & The Dollar Jump

II USA DATA

Jobless Claims Improve, Q3 GDP Revised Higher, But Another Manufacturing Survey Collapses

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 08:43 AM

Quite a mixed bag this morning…

On the good side, the final (3rd) read for Q3 GDP, US economic growth was revised up to 3.1% QoQ Annualized (from 2.8%)…

…with personal consumption also revised up to +3.7% (better than the 3.6% exp)…

On the not bad side (sorry to break the analogy), jobless claims tumbled back to earth last week – after spiking the prior week…

New York and Texas saw the largest drop in initial jobless claims…

Continuing claims dipped but holds still around the 1.9 million level (three year highs)…

On the bad side, The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey collapsed from -5.5 to -16.4 (dramatically worse than the +2.8 expected and far below even the worst analyst expectation)…

Source: Bloomberg

Future general activity expectations plunged 26 points to 30.7 in December (after jumping higher the previous two months), with future new orders and future shipments indexes both declined

Source: Bloomberg

On the ugly side, Prices Paid are surging while Prices Received are falling… that’s a disaster for corporate margins…

So strong GDP, strong labor force, but manufacturing is shaky….

…what will Powell do next?

end

higher interest rates will kill this market

(zerohedge)

US Existing Home Sales Surged In November, But…

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 10:08 AM

After a collapse in new home sales in October (and modest rise in pending and existing home sales), analysts expected a further (small) acceleration in existing home sales in November and they were right as sales rose 4.8% MoM (vs +3.0% exp) – the biggest MoM jump since Feb 2024. That lifted sales up 6.14% YoY – the highest since June 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

That beat lifted the Total Existing Home Sales SAAR to 4.15mm – six month highs, but in context, still languishing near the lowest since the trough in 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

But don’t get all excited quite yet – these are contracts that were generally signed in September, and since then rates have surged higher and yesterday’s Fed will not help as mortgage rates top 7% once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Affordability remains a major hangup. The median sale price of a previously owned home increased 4.7% from a year earlier to $406,100 last month, a record for the month of November.

Of course, realtors can’t help but get excited…

“Home sales momentum is building,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

But Yun admits that annual home sales are on pace to come in even lower than last year, which was the worst since 1995.

First-time buyers made up 30% of purchases in November, but NAR’s annual report showed the share was 24% for all of 2024, the lowest on record.

end

Trump Effect? US Leading Economic Indicators Positive For First Time Since Feb 2022

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 10:18 AM

For the first time since February 2022, US Leading Economic Indicators was positive in November (post-election)…

Source: Bloomberg

Building Permits and Stock prices were the biggest positive contributors to the main index while ISM New Orders and the Yield Curve were still notable drags…

Source: Bloomberg

With November’s gain, the LEI no longer signals an impending recession…

“Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, adding “The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.“

Trump effect?

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

a mess!!

Johnson Meets With Trump Team To Throw Federal Funding Hail Mary

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 10:25 AM

With Friday’s government shutdown looming – and odds spiking after everyone figured out that the 1,547-page Continuing Resolution (CR) was full of Orwellian bullshit and other malarkey, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has gone to Donald Trumps team with hat in hand.

The new plan will be a federal funding stopgap plan that includes disaster aid, pushing off the debt limit fight for two years, and a one-year farm bill extension, Politico reports, citing Republicans familiar with the discussions.

No word on how close this comes to a “clean” bill, or how much of the aforementioned bullshit is gone – such as funding the Global Engagement Center, shielding the Jan. 6 committee from subpoenas, and funding new biolabs, but we guess we’ll find out.

Also unknown is whether Democrats will support the plan.

But Trump had made an 11th hour public demand that any stopgap bill should deal with the debt limit. Trump’s team is pushing for at least a commitment to lift the debt limit before Jan. 20.

The level of disaster aid and whether it’s completely paid for is still unclear. The package would also likely include some additional economic aid for farmers, amid threats from rural Republicans to oppose any stopgap that doesn’t include the funding. -Politico

In a closed door meeting on Thursday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told Democratic lawmakers: “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate,” citing JFK.

Polymarkets odds of a government shutdown went from 15% yesterday to 49% this morning.

https://embed.polymarket.com/market.html?market=us-government-shutdown-before-2025&features=volume&theme=dark

According to Punchbowl News, here’s what happened, and what’s next;

At some point today, House Republicans and Democrats will likely have separate party meetings to chart their path forward. Democrats have announced their meeting for 9 a.m. We’ll talk more about them below.

But make no mistake — this is Johnson and Trump’s mess to solve. And we’re inching toward a shutdown as government funding runs out at midnight Friday.

Johnson was mostly MIA Wednesday, holed up in his Capitol office for hours without showing his face. Even the House GOP leadership team felt like they were being kept in the dark about what was happening.

Late in the evening, Johnson met with Vance, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Rules Committee Chair Michael Burgess (R-Texas). Jordan and Roy are conservative hardliners. Diaz-Balart is a senior appropriator.

As Scalise left around 10 p.m., he told reporters “We’re not there yet” when asked whether the debt-limit boost would be part of any new government-funding plan. “A lot of things have come up,” Scalise added.

A somewhat obvious play may be a funding bill with a two-year debt-limit extension. Why? Because Trump supports increasing the debt limit now. Given how volatile Trump was during his first term, there’s no guarantee he’ll do this again. (For what it’s worth, Biden administration officials estimate the debt limit won’t be reached until sometime next summer. GOP leaders were planning to handle it in a reconciliation bill).

Trump is giving Johnson cover for the time being. It’s limited, however. Because Trump, once again, has put his party in a bind. There are probably dozens of Republicans who have never voted for raising the debt ceiling. Now Trump is forcing them to do so.

Check back for updates.

end

LATE IN THE DAY

“There Is An Agreement”: Johnson To Whip Out Latest Attempt To Avert Friday Shutdown

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 03:48 PM

Update (1350ET): Republican lawmakers have reportedly struck a new short-term deal to keep the lights on in Washington, according to Politico, citing two GOP lawmakers meeting in Speaker Mike Johnson’s office Thursday afternoon.

“There is an agreement,” said Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK). “The plan is to put a bill on the floor that we think is a reasonable step forward.”

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), who was also in Johnson’s office, didn’t say whether congressional Democrats or the White House had agreed to it.

Late Wednesday afternoon, President-elect Trump demanded Johnson abandon the previous revision he’d worked out with Democratic congressional leaders.

END

this is interesting: Amazon workers strike!

Striking Amazon Workers Hold Christmas Hostage To Demand Labor Contract From “Greedy Executives” 

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 01:45 PM

Workers at seven Amazon warehouses and other facilities went on strike Thursday morning in a nationwide labor action after the e-commerce giant refused to negotiate a labor contract with the union earlier this week.

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said Amazon workers went on strike this morning at three Southern California locations, one New York City location, one Atlanta, Georgia location, and one in Skokie, Illinois. 

“Workers will join the picket line from DBK4 in New York City; DGT8 in Atlanta; DFX4, DAX5, and DAX8 in Southern California; DCK6 in San Francisco; and DIL7 in Skokie, Ill,” the union wrote in a press release.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1869714557486145993

Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien explained, “If your package is delayed during the holidays, you can blame Amazon’s insatiable greed. We gave Amazon a clear deadline to come to the table and do right by our members. They ignored it.”

And it begins…

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1869747544508801057

https://twitter.com/ProudSocialist/status/1869786918365606107

“These greedy executives had every chance to show decency and respect for the people who make their obscene profits possible. Instead, they’ve pushed workers to the limit and now they’re paying the price. This strike is on them,” O’Brien said. 

The union said, “10,000 Amazon workers have mobilized a movement and joined the Teamsters. They are fighting for higher wages, better benefits, and safer conditions at work,” adding other warehouses nationwide could soon join the labor action ahead of Christmas. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1869811552578351197

“What we’re doing is historic,” said Leah Pensler, a warehouse worker at DCK6 in San Francisco

Historic in the sense of holding Christmas hostage for consumers? 

The problem is that Amazon will eventually automate these jobs by the end of the decade…

“I’ve seen the Teamsters win big battles,” said Dia Ortiz, a worker at DBK4 in New York, adding, “We’re ready to do what it takes to win this one.”

END

Terror Threat? NYC Now Deploys “Largest Military Presence In Subways Since 9/11 Aftermath”

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 11:05 AM

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul beefed up the number of New York National Guard members patrolling NYC subway stations, marking the largest military presence in the city’s subway system since the aftermath of 9/11. This heightened security measure coincides with mounting public hysteria over unidentified drones in NJ-NY airspace and the rising threat of terrorism.   

On Wednseday, Gov. Hochul told reporters that 250 additional Guard members will join the already deployed 750 Guard members to combat rapes, murders, and robberies that plague NYC’s subway system.

In March, when we heard about the initial deployment, we asked…

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1765563049136607500?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1765

“This marks the largest military presence in the city’s subway system since the aftermath of 9/11,” local paper Gothamist noted. 

Really need rifles to combat criminals in the subway? Seems like there has been an ongoing terror threat. 

https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1765516965781647869?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1765516965781647869%7Ctwgr%5Edaa

The governor said, “I’ve heard from many people that the presence of the National Guard has made not just a physical difference, but a psychological difference in how they feel about safety. When people see a person in uniform, NYPD, MTA, transit, even our national Guard, they feel more secure than why it’s a deterrent to those who would break our laws and threaten other riders,” adding, “They see that sense of security that if they have a problem, there’s someone there to help.”

Hochul credited the increased military presence, first deployed in March, with making riders feel safer… 

Sure, increasing the number of Guard members to combat subway crime might make sense. But why not simply beef up NYPD patrols? Or the threat is much larger than NYPD officers can handle. There must be something the government is failing to tell folks in NYC – just like the feds went weeks with keeping the public in the dark about mystery drone flights in the region.

The most alarming issue NYC faces comes from disastrous Biden-Harris’ open borders that flooded NYC with upwards of 200,000 unvetted migrants, some of whom may be pre-trained terrorists. 

In the short term, the threats to the homeland are rising, as described by Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, an Associate Professor and Research Faculty with Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University: 

“Radicalized Hamas members may increasingly look to Al-Qaeda as a more viable destination for their operations, given Al-Qaeda’s growing capabilities and its strategic ties to Iran. This shift could significantly strengthen Al-Qaeda’s position in the region, making it an even more formidable threat to Western and Israeli interests in the future.” 

While Hochul claims beefing up the Guard’s presence to the highest levels since the aftermath of 9/11 is merely to combat crime, the expanded deployment is likely a response to a more significant threat than drug addicts and rapists, considering Democrats have transformed America into a “terrorist playground” with open borders. 

END

Michelob Ultra Surpasses Bud Light As Top Draft Beer, Data Shows

Wednesday, Dec 18, 2024 – 05:30 PM

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Bud Light, once the reigning champion of American draft beers, continues to experience a decline in its market position.

According to a statement from Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bud Light has been surpassed by Michelob Ultra, also owned by the company, as the top draft beer in the United States. Anheuser-Busch also owns Corona, Budweiser, and Stella Artois, among other popular beer brands.

“We’re proud to have the top two beers on draft in the U.S. in Michelob Ultra and Bud Light, and by our data, Bud Light is more than 30% bigger than the next closest competitor,” the spokesperson told NTD News in an emailed statement, citing public Circana data.

They said beyond just draft beers, Michelob Ultra is leading the industry as the number one overall fastest-growing beer in the United States and also the second overall beer brand in the country, behind Bud Light in that category.

This shift in rankings followed a difficult year for Bud Light, which faced a widespread boycott.

In July, Bud Light fell to third place in overall sales at grocery and convenience stores during the critical period between Memorial Day and July 4th. Michelob Ultra claimed the second spot, while Modelo Especial, manufactured by rival Constellation Brands, secured the top position.

The boycott, which began in response to Bud Light’s partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney, has had far-reaching impacts for Anheuser-Busch InBev.

In May, the company reported its first-quarter earnings results for 2024, which showed a 9.1 percent decrease in revenues in the United States, primarily attributed to a drop in Bud Light volume. During the same period, Anheuser-Busch reported global revenues increased by 2.6 percent, largely due to strong sales of Corona beer outside of Mexico. Overall revenue rose to $14.5 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of $14.3 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

At the time, Anheuser-Busch CEO Michel Doukeris said he was optimistic about the company’s performance.

“The strength of the beer category, our diversified global footprint and the continued momentum of our megabrands delivered another quarter of broad-based top-and bottom-line growth,” Doukeris said.

“We are encouraged by our results to start the year, and the consistent execution by our teams and partners reinforces our confidence in delivering on our 2024 growth ambitions.”

In an effort to rebuild its image, Anheuser-Busch has undertaken several strategic partnerships.

The company became the “official beer partner” of the UFC, a mixed martial arts league, and secured sponsorship deals with the U.S. Olympic team for its Michelob Ultra brand. Additionally, Corona Cero, AB InBev’s zero-alcohol beer, will be the global beer sponsor of the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

From NTD News

END

McDonalds

this is big! McDonald’s French fry supplier warns of sputtering demand

(zerohedge)

McDonald’s French Fry Supplier Warns Demand Sputtering, Sends Shares Crashing 

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 09:15 AM

A major McDonald’s french fry supplier missed its second-quarter earnings and slashed full-year guidance for the second consecutive time this year as demand for frozen potato products sputtered, sending shares in premarket crashing lower. 

For the quarter that ended Nov. 24, Lamb Weston posted adjusted earnings of 66 cents a share, which missed analyst estimates of $1.02 a share, according to Bloomberg. 

Challenging macroeconomic conditions in the quarter were blamed on higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and sliding fry demand.  

Here’s a snapshot of 2Q earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS 66c, estimate $1.02

Adjusted Ebitda $281.9 million, estimate $330.2 million

• North America adjusted Ebitda $266.7 million, estimate $295.2 million

Net sales $1.60 billion, estimate $1.67 billion

• North America net sales $1.07 billion, estimate $1.1 billion
• International net sales $528.8 million, estimate $568.5 million

Volume -6%, estimate -2.76%

• North America volume -5%
• International volume -6%
• Price/mix -2%, estimate -0.91%
• North America price/mix -3%

“Our financial results in the second quarter were below our expectations,” Tom Werner, President and CEO, wrote in a statement, adding, “Higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and softer volumes accounted for the shortfall, while price/mix and operating expenses were broadly in line with our targets for the quarter.”

The dismal quarterly results led the the company to cut its full-year guidance for the second straight quarter:

• Sees adjusted EPS $3.05 to $3.20, saw $4.15 to $4.35, estimate $4.23 (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $1.17 billion to $1.21 billion, saw low end of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion, estimate $1.36 billion
• Sees net sales $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion, saw $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, estimate $6.65 billion

Werner’s outlook for next year is complicated, and implies that cash-strapped fast-food customers are merely downsizing their meals in the era of elevated inflation: 

“In terms of the broader operating environment, we expect challenging conditions to persist through the remainder of fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026, driven primarily by an accelerating rate of capacity additions and continued near-term softening of global frozen potato demand below historical rates, particularly outside North America, until demand trends improve and capacity expansion normalizes. As a result, we are reducing our fiscal 2025 financial targets.” 

In a separate news release, the French fry maker announced that CEO Werner would be replaced by Michael Smith, the company’s chief operating officer. 

The Wall Street Journal revealed in mid-October that activist investor Jana Partners built a 5% stake in the company and would push for a sale. 

To combat a major slowdown in sales, McDonald’s revamped its meal deal targeting working-class and middle-class customers who could no longer afford soaring Big Mac prices due to the inflation storm sparked by failed ‘Bidenomics.’ The meal deal ignited a value menu war with other major quick-service restaurants. Now, the burger chain is planning a complete overhaul of its value menu in early 2025.

Trouble for the Golden Arches resulted in a crash share price for Lamb Weston, -17% in premarket trading in New York.

Meanwhile, MCD resistance building at $300. 

Great news for Jana Partners—this plunge in prices gives their traders an opportunity to purchase more stock at lower prices.

END

CALFORNIA/GOV NEWSOME

California’s Regulations Causing Truck Shortages, Rising Costs, Industry Says

Wednesday, Dec 18, 2024 – 10:30 PM

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

California’s zero emission regulations are causing truck shortages and rising costs, according to the trucking and heavy-duty vehicle industry.

State officials plan to end traditional combustion truck sales by 2036.

California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation requires manufacturing companies to gradually increase the percentage of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) they sell on the market—such as electric or hydrogen—and reduce the number of gas and diesel trucks.

Anthony Bento, chief legal officer for the California New Car Dealers Association, said dealers in the state have seen dramatic decreases in available trucks for the 2024 model year as a result of the new rules.

“These rules are decreasing product availability, and when there’s less product available, there’s increasing costs,” Bento told The Epoch Times. “The on-the-ground reality is that California consumers and businesses are going to be paying more, because there’s not an adequate supply of new product available that meets customers’ demands.”

California’s goals include reducing tailpipe emissions and requiring the progress and adoption of advanced clean trucks. By the end of the 2024 model year, 5 to 9 percent of sales in California must be ZEVs.

The ACT regulation was adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in 2020 and approved by the state Office of Administrative Law in March 2021.

Industry representatives say the rules are forcing businesses to drive out of state to purchase trucks and parts that are non-compliant, leave the state of California, or close up shop altogether. They also say truck business owners are delaying upgrading their fleet so as to not deal with the requirements.

Mark Baatz, owner of Tow Industries in Los Angeles, which supplies trucks to emergency roadside services, told host Siyamak Khorrami on EpochTV’s “California Insider” in an interview published on Dec. 15, that the towing industry doesn’t yet have any available ZEV options.

“In our industry, regardless of cost, there isn’t an electric truck that works for us at this time,” he said. “That next technology hasn’t arrived for us yet.”

As a result, the number of diesel trucks available has been reduced dramatically, he said. Last year, his company sold around 600 trucks, and next year, only around 30 to 50 trucks are expected to be available. He said this will heavily impact the emergency towing industry.

Meanwhile, CARB representatives have said the state’s ACT regulations may not be the problem, citing a nationwide downturn in the market, supply chain issues carrying over from previous years, and manufacturers not being sufficiently prepared to comply with other emissions regulations.

“Inconsistencies in communication have led dealers and fleets to believe that the ACT regulation’s requirements are leading to the product shortages in the medium- and heavy-duty space which, upon discussions with all affected parties, is not backed by the data available,” Steven Cliff, executive officer for CARB, wrote in a memo on Sept. 25.

“Additionally, some vehicle upfitters producing specialty vehicles, including tow trucks, have reached maximum production capacity thresholds nationwide and cannot increase production levels, which affects the manufacturers’ ability to accept new orders.”

Cliff also said California zero-emission trucks have increased in price by an average of $86,512 since 2021–22, while such European trucks have decreased in price by an average of $12,641 during that same time period.

“There appear to be no clear reasons for this disparity between regions,” he wrote.

On Dec. 6, the board published a “Myth vs. Fact” fact sheet to address concerns raised about the ACT rules, stating for example, “The ACT regulation does not have any provisions prohibiting or restricting the types of diesel-powered vehicles that can be registered or operated in California.”

CARB did not reply to The Epoch Times’ request for comment by publication time.

A separate major regulation facing the California trucking industry is the Heavy-Duty Low NOx rule, which went into effect in 2021 and requires a 90 percent reduction in certain emissions for new heavy-duty vehicles compared to traditional diesel engines by 2031.

ZEV Compliant Trucks

At a CARB board meeting on Oct. 24, Bento said data suggests that the magnitude of declines in available trucks are significant—over 80 percent for Class 8 heavy-duty trucks weighing more than 33,000 pounds—and the scale of these declines is unique to California. Therefore, he said they cannot be attributed to national or economic factors.

If the supply of new combustion trucks does not increase, businesses that rely on these vehicles will be left with a couple of choices, Bento said.

“Continue to operate their older, more polluting vehicles for longer or purchase vehicles from out of state that do not comply with CARB requirements,” he said. “Both options undermine our state’s environmental goals and will harm air quality.”

Brian Banks, owner of Action Towing and Road Service in the San Francisco Bay Area, said that while he supports clean energy and wants his children to live in a world with clean air, he also wants to support his 200 workers and their families.

“Unfortunately at this point, there is no application that will work in our industry. I ask the board to please reconsider the regulations and continue to make amendments to allow us to run our businesses until there is a solution,” he said.

Other commenters suggested emergency tow trucks be exempt from the ACT regulation or postpone the regulation altogether until the technology catches up.

Ashley Porter, sales manager for Oakland-based Tec Equipment, said she has seen many of their large truck customers leave California or pass the costs of updating their fleet onto customers.

She said it has been heart-wrenching to walk her clients through the ACT and other regulations and noted that certain businesses don’t have the resources to meet the requirements.

“The impact of these regulations as it is written today will impact the California economy negatively for years to come,” Porter said.

END

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

VDH

Dronomania

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 01:25 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

New Jersey is now subject to nonstop and often sensational civilian reports of swarms of nocturnal drones crossing city skies and violating the airspace of airports and military bases.

Terrified thousands demand to know what these drones are doing and to whom they belong.

In response, the Biden administration had initially kept mum.

Then, under mounting public pressure, it assured the public to be calm, given that most of the drones were likely launched by hobbyists and private citizens.

When that narrative failed to convince many, spokespeople pivoted to claims of mass hysteria and mistaken identity.

Amateur sightseers, they inferred, were subject to panic and hallucinations—supposedly wrongly confusing normal civilian and airline planes with drones.

Perhaps.

But as the sightings continued, more government narratives followed that the drones were unidentified but assuredly still harmless and certainly not foreign-operated.

Still, the mysterious sightings continued.

And the public’s initial curiosity soon turned to fear and finally to anger at their government’s silence, subsequent gaslighting, and final mendacity.

In its characteristic stonewalling, the Biden administration has only fueled speculations and occasional conspiracy theories when it could have at least reviewed logical theories and welcomed legitimate questions.

Is a controversial government agency—perhaps the CIA or the EPA—surveilling installations, areas, or people that would either be too embarrassing to be revealed or otherwise might set off panic? And for the public good or consistent with this administration’s weaponization of government?

Or are these drones the work of foreign surveillance in the mode of the 2023 Chinese spy balloon?

A government that long ago lost all its credibility could not reassure the people of the truth even if it wished to.

For nearly four years, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas assured the American people almost weekly that “the border is secure”—even as a reported 12 million illegal entrants easily crossed it.

White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre asserted weekly that President Joe Biden was vigorous, in full control of his faculties, and always “sharp.”

In fact, she knew that the American people grimaced as their president slurred his speech, suddenly went mute, tripped, fell, and wandered aimlessly.

In late January and early February 2023, a huge Chinese surveillance balloon traversed across the United States. Public outrage grew as the administration changed its excuses by the day.

It variously assured the public that it was a mere weather balloon, that it would be too dangerous to shoot it down, that it did not transmit any of its photographic capability to China, or that its trajectory did not cross key military installations.

All those excuses were either half-lies or untrue.

In late July and early August 2021, it became clear that the Biden administration planned a massive, previously unannounced, and abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Rumors circulated that Joe Biden rushed to claim that he alone had ended the messy Afghan war misadventure after 20 years and would celebrate his triumph on the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

To assuage public fears, our top generals assured us that the Taliban was at bay, Kabul was secured, and the withdrawal would be orderly.

But within hours, sheer bedlam broke out.

Thirteen Marines were murdered by terrorists.

There were no audits or background checks on Afghans who were flown to America. Meanwhile, loyal Afghan interpreters and American contractors were ignored and left behind to fend off triumphant terrorists on their own.

Even as Americans watched the disaster on their screens, the Biden administration boasted of a supposedly heroic and Herculean effort to evacuate tens of thousands—in what the public saw instead as the greatest American military humiliation of the last half-century.

So, the American public understandably no longer believes much of anything the waning Biden administration says—not after its other chronic lies about denying the role of the Wuhan lab in the COVID-19 pandemic, only “moderate” inflation, and assurances that Hunter Biden would never be pardoned by his father.

This administration knows that anytime there is a scandal or embarrassment on team Biden’s watch, it wheels out megaphones that ignore inquiries, gaslight critics by claiming they are hallucinatory, defame them as conspiratorial, or simply flat-out lie and stonewall.

No one yet knows what, if anything, these drones are, what they are doing in our skies—and much less whether they pose any threat at all.

But almost everyone assumes the Biden administration knows and yet expects that it will likely deceive us that it doesn’t.

END

TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING

KING REPORT

The King Report December 19, 2024 Issue 7394

Independent View of the News

US Economic Data released on Wednesday:Nov Housing Starts 1.289m (-1.8% m/m), 1.345m (+2.6%) expected, 1.312m priorNov Housing Permits 1.505m (+6.1% m/m, bullish builders), 1.43m (+1.0%) exp., 1.419m priorQ3 Current Account -$310.9B, -$287.1B expected, -$275.0B prior  ESHs traded moderately lower after the Nikkei opening.  A rally quickly developed.  ESHs rallied from a daily low of 6113.50 at 18:03 ET to 6135.00 at 21:09 ET.  ESHs then chopped modestly higher until another rally leg appeared near 5 ET.  ESHs hit 6145.756 at 5:15 ET.  They then again vacillated in a tight range, with a slight upward bias, until they hit a peak of 6147.25 at 7:52 ET.     Aggressive selling appeared; ESHs tumbled to 6118.50 at 9:32 ET.  Dip buyers and traders playing the Fed Day Rally manically bought.  ESHs zoomed to a new daily high of 6148.00 at 10:42 ET.   ESHs then sank to 6129.50 at 11:21 ET.  The manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close pushed ESHs to 6144.50 at 11:45 ET.  After a brief respite, a Noon Balloon took ESHs to 6146.00 at 12:22 ET.  ESHs then retreated to 6135.50 at 12:33 ET and went inert ahead of the FOMC Communique release at 14 ET.   While the DJIA was up 230+ points at midday, the NY Fang+ Index was down about 0.5% because profit taking pushed Broadcom 3.55% lower.  CrowdStrike was -1.57% at the time.   FOMC Minutes HighlightsAs expected, a 25bp rate cutCleveland Fed Pres Hammack dissented in favor of no rate cutTwo 25bp rate cuts, down from 4, are forecast for 2025; and 2 for 2026Four officials saw one or no rate cuts in 2025FOMC Median 2024 PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.5% from 2.1%Reiterated that risks to labor and inflation goals are ‘roughly in balance’2025 median unemployment rate projection fell to 4.3%Officials don’t see 2% inflation until 2027, 2026 previously.  Only a few minor changes in the FOMC Communique: https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1869457805448819108/photo/1   FOMC DOT Plot: https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1869457616566706445/photo/1   ESHs tumbled to a new daily low of 6071.25 at 14:30 ET on the more hawkish than expected FOMC Communique.  It was up to PE Powell to save speculators and bulls!   Powell Press Conference HighlightsThe economy is strong overall.The labor market has cooled but remains strong.Inflation is on track to fall to our 2% goal.Business sentiment strengthen but housing remains weak.The labor market is not a source of significant inflation.“From this point forward, it’s appropriate to move cautiously and look for progress on inflation.”  ESHs bounced after Powell began speaking.  They topped at 6082.75 at 14:36 ET.   Powell Q&A HighlightsToday’s cut was “a close call.”Cut because labor market has cooled and job growth has ‘cooled.’Inflation is still ‘broadly on track’ to fall.“We believe policy is still meaningfully restrictive.”  (Stocks, Bitcoin, gold say otherwise)“The uncertainty about inflation is higher.” ‘We don’t know much about Trump’s policies/tariffs and their effects.’“People are feeling the effect of high prices, not high inflation.”“We’re not allowed to own Bitcoin and not looking for a law change.”  When Powell’s answers to reporters’ questions were more hawkish than hoped for, ESHs sank anew.  ESHs hit a low of 6018.50 at 15:17 ET.  They then rebounded to 6032.75 at 15:21 ET.  Powell then finished his presser; the rally halted.  ESHs then plunged to a new daily low of 5940.00 at 15:45 ET.   The late (and desperate) manipulation forced ESHs to 5078.00 at 15:48 ET (38 points in 3 minutes!).  The manipulation ended after ESHs hit 5981.00 at 15:51 ET.  ESHs then sank to 5907.25 at 16:05 ET.   @Barchart: S&P 500 Value Stocks have declined for 13 consecutive days, the longest losing streak in history.   https://x.com/Barchart/status/1869551546993934685   Positive aspects of previous session Commodities declined sharply; the dollar soared. A late, desperate ESH manipulation appeared.   Negative aspects of previous session Stocks, including Fangs, tumbled, which generated severe technical damage. The DJIA declined for the 10th straight session, its longest losing streak since 1974! The DJIA closed 1131 points below its 50-day MA. USHs declined as much as 1 23/32.  The US 10-year hit 4.522%, its highest yield since May. The NY Fang+ Index declined moderately while stocks rallied in the morning. Oil and gasoline rallied sharply in the morning.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the expiry manipulation appear on Thursday?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5936.87 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6070.67; 5867.79   @charliebilello: Apple now trades at over 41x earnings, its highest P/E ratio since 2007 (first iPhone was released). When Berkshire Hathaway started buying Apple in 2016 it was trading at less than 10x earnings. Berkshire sold 67% of their stake this year.  https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1869239217676578862?s=02   @HFI_Research: What stage of the bull market? QUBT market cap of $1.56 billion.  Awarded $26k in contract from Nasa. Has revenue of $311,000 in the last 9 months. Yes, $311,000. Formerly called Innovative Beverage Group Holdings. https://t.co/yIrOZ0ya83   @Barchart: S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio hits 2nd highest level of all-time.  The highest?  Dot Com Bubble. https://t.co/JgC1mrEiiU   GOP @RepNancyMace: The last CR (Continuing Resolution to fund stuff) we did was 21 pages. This once is 1,547.  Let that sink in. More pages, more taxpayer dollars flushed down the drain.   The Craziest Things Congress Snuck into Its Pork-Packed Christmas Spending Spree     Members of Congress would be allowed their first pay raise since 2009     A provision that allows lawmakers to opt out of Obamacare and use the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program instead     Language on transparency in concert ticket pricing     The federal government paying the entire bill to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge     Accountability for recycling and composting fraud     A “Feral Swine Eradication” program     A continuation of the “Wool Trust Fund” until 2025     Paying for juvenile delinquents to get their driver’s license     No longer calling homeless adults and children “homeless”     Extending a “sheep marketing grant program” until 2025     The Global Engagement Center, the State Department’s office dedicated to censorship, will get another year of funding     Spending $3 million dollars to test the inspection of molasses https://dailycaller.com/2024/12/18/continuing-resolution-worst-things-mike-johnson-spending-bill/   The CR allows Congress to block subpoenas for “House Data.”  This is a means to subvert investigations into the Jan 6 Com.   It provides funding for 12 biolabs in the US and $60B for Ukraine. GOP @ RepNancyMace: Section Page 1398: Redefines “for criminal offenders in criminal institutions and for institutionalized individuals” to “justice involved individuals in correctional institutions and for other institutionalized individuals.”   @elonmusk: Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!     Either there is massive change or America goes bankrupt, therefore there must be massive change!   Speaker Johnson weighs DROPPING all extras from spending bill for “clean” resolution amid backlash – Politico   @realDonaldTrump: If Republicans try to pass a clean Continuing Resolution without all the Democrat “bells and whistles” that will be so destructive to our Country, all it will do, after January 20th, is bring the mess of the Debt Limit into the Trump Administration, rather than allowing it to take place in the Biden Administration. Any Republican that would be so stupid as to do this should, and will, be Primaried. Everything should be done, and fully negotiated, prior to my taking Office on Jan. 20th, 2025.   Today – Bulls want to generate a squeeze on expiring December call options, which is the usual upward manipulation that occurs during Expiry Week.  However, the plunge on Wednesday might foment a (gamma) squeeze of expiring puts.  As more puts go ‘into the money,’ professional option traders must adjust (their deltas) by selling something to remain hedged.   Delta is the rate at which an option moves in relation to the underlying asset, the first derivative.  Gamma is acceleration, the second derivative.  A 60 delta means the option should move .60 for each 1 point the underlying asset moves.  Gamma is how fast the delta will change when the asset price moves.   The action today is likely to be a vicious contest between those that want to manipulate stuff higher to salvage their expiry December calls versus those that want to sell stuff or must sell stuff to remain hedged or those that want to liquidate expiry December calls before they go to zero.   Ergo, there could be enhanced volatility today, especially in the afternoon.  PS – The US 10-year note hit 4.522% on Wednesday.  A further meaningful decline should harm stocks.   There should be robust rebound early.  The key for today could be the ability of stocks to hold the first hour lows.  If first-hour lows are breached with gusto, there could be rough sledding ahead.   ESHs are +9.00; NQZs are -6.50; and USHs are -6/32 at 20:40 ET.   Expected Economic Data: Q3 GDP 2.8%, Consumption 3.6%, GDP Price Index 1.9%, Core PCE Price Index 2.15: Dec Phil Fed Business Outlook 2.8; Initial Jobless Claims 230k, Continuing Claims 1.89m; Nov LEI -0.1%; Nov Existing Home Sales 4.09m; Dec KC Fed Mfg. Activity -1   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5923; 100-day MA: 5743; 150-day MA: 5642; 200-day MA: 5519 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,458; 100-day MA: 42,239; 150-day MA: 41,299; 200-day MA: 40,672 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5872.16 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5304.59 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6182.25 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6064.91 triggers a buy signal   The proposed House CR has been withdrawn due to pressure from Trump, Musk, and GOP voters.  Dems are livid, and are blaming Musk, who is reveling in the CR defeat.   @elonmusk: Unless @DOGE ends the careers of deceitful, pork-barrel politicians, the waste and corruption will never stop. Therefore, there is no choice but to do so.  I wish there was another way, but there is not.   @robbystarbuck: I don’t think it’s really sunk in yet just how powerful 𝕏 is now. We’re in the middle of an organic cultural and political revolution to give power back to the people.   MSNBC host details Biden team’s effort to shut down interview after asking Hunter Biden question in 2023 – ‘President Biden’s team waved in front of the camera, started screaming and yelling and stopped the interview,’ Stephanie Ruhle said… https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-host-describes-biden-teams-effort-shut-down-interview-after-asking-hunter-biden-question-2023   Appeals court revises lawsuit of prosecutor who objected to charging decisions in George Floyd case – The court ruling provides new details about the “hostility” former prosecutor Amy Sweasy says she faced after objecting to certain charging decisions in the George Floyd case… https://alphanews.org/appeals-court-revises-lawsuit-of-prosecutor-who-objected-to-charging-decisions-in-george-floyd-case/   @DefiyantlyFree: If Joe Biden was not mentally competent to stand trial, how is he mentally competent to sign pardons?   ABC’s George Stephanopoulos was repeatedly warned not to use word ‘rape’ by producer — but said it anyway: sources https://trib.al/ySk2Wv0

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Nancy Pelosi Profited As Luxury Napa Resort Won COVID-19 Bailout

Wednesday, Dec 18, 2024 – 08:00 PM

Authored by Leighton Woodhouse via RealClearInvestigations,

The Auberge du Soleil, a five-star hillside hotel and spa with a panoramic view overlooking the vineyards of Napa Valley, appears to be first-rate in all ways but one. While the glamorous resort, an hour’s drive from San Francisco, fills rooms that routinely go for $2,000 a night with A-list celebrities and tech titans, financial records suggest it did not provide much of a return to at least two of its investors – Rep. Nancy Pelosi and her husband, Paul. That changed when it received millions in congressionally authorized COVID-19 relief in 2020 and 2021.

The Auberge du Soleil investment, held for decades by Paul Pelosi, has rarely turned a significant profit, according to Nancy’s financial disclosure forms. In some years, he has recorded a loss or a profit of between $50,000 to $100,000. But the year of the bailout money stands apart. In 2021, Pelosi’s ethics forms show that her family’s income from the resort surged to a range of $1 million to $5 million. 

The French Riviera-themed resort may not be most people’s idea of a struggling business in need of a government bailout, yet the Auberge du Soleil – which shuttered briefly at the outset of the pandemic before swiftly rebounding – received about $9 million from a series of special taxpayer-funded emergency relief programs.

The previously unreported windfall is among several COVID bailouts that flowed to Pelosi-backed restaurants, hotels, and properties, including several Courtyard Marriott hotels.

A RealClearInvestigations analysis found that Pelosi’s profits spiked from a variety of holdings that won significant government rescue funds – which amounted to $28 million, a total more than previously known. For their family’s stake in the Auberge du Soleil, the Pelosis received more income in 2021, when bailout funds channeled to the resort, than any other time over the last 10 years.

Pelosi is hardly alone among lawmakers whose businesses reaped awards from pandemic-era financial programs designed for small businesses. Rep. Greg Pence, the brother of the former vice president, received $79,441. Rep. Dean Phillips, who briefly campaigned in the Democratic presidential primary, is an investor in a small event production company, Geniecast, that received two forgivable loans that totaled $373,185. Other members with investments in car dealerships and restaurant companies also received scrutiny over COVID rescue funds.

Yet Pelosi’s personal stake in the unprecedented taxpayer gusher has never been fully explored. Pelosi, during her previous stint as leader of the House of Representatives, shepherded all federal COVID stimulus measures, which totaled about $5.5 trillion – one of the largest domestic spending efforts in U.S. history outside of wartime. “These Republicans seem to have an endless tolerance for other people’s sadness,” said Pelosi at a press conference in December 2020, admonishing her opposition for delays in passing additional pandemic spending programs. The programs were touted as disaster measures designed to save the economy and help needy businesses and families.

The exact amount of Pelosi’s profits from the Auberge Du Soleil is unclear. The hotel is a privately held company, and the lawmakers file ethics reports that show a range of income and assets rather than a precise amount. Her office did not respond to a request for comment.

The former House Speaker has gained notoriety over her husband’s well-timed stock trades. Her husband, Paul Pelosi, 84, is an investor who has long dabbled in real estate. Fortune magazine, among other outlets, has reported on his unusually high gains from trading call options for technology-related stocks.

The Pelosi household earned over 65% on trades last year, according to an analysis from Unusual Whales, one of several sites that track congressional trading activity. That record outshines even the most successful hedge fund managers. 

Pelosi’s wealth has surged over her time in office. Disclosures show her net worth went from approximately $18 million in 1991 to nearly $250 million last year. “The Speaker has no prior knowledge or subsequent involvement in any transaction,” Pelosi’s spokesperson has told outlets in the past over questions about the trades. Her office did not respond to RCI’s request for comment.

The COVID-related relief lavished on the Pelosi family’s private investment holdings has gone largely unnoticed. 

Early in the pandemic, there were scattered reports about lawmakers from both parties who stood to gain financially from the initial Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The small business rescue fund, reporters at Roll Call noted in July 2020, awarded forgivable loans to Piatti, an Italian chain, and a firm tied to the El Dorado, a small hotel in Sonoma County, both owned in part by Pelosi. The Pelosi-linked PPP loans disclosed by the media totaled around $2.4 million.

That figure scratches the surface. Newly discovered government disclosures show that Pelosi’s private holdings, such as the Auberge du Soleil resort, received upwards of $28 million in pandemic-related taxpayer funds, including the PPP, the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan, and a special grant program for restaurants.

Much of the additional funding came from the second and third wave of pandemic stimulus legislation, passed in December 2020 and March 2021, that authorized an additional $2 trillion in cash and forgivable loans for needy individuals, businesses, and local governments. The additional rounds of spending effectively doubled the initial $2.1 trillion of CARES Act funds that began in March 2020. The new legislation authorized a second wave of PPP loans, along with billions of dollars in grants to theaters, restaurants, and travel companies impacted by the crisis.

After the initial outcry over lawmakers reaping financial awards from the bailout programs they had authorized, Congress tightened the eligibility standards. These rules included a prohibition on PPP loans extended to companies in which lawmakers or their spouses owned a “controlling interest,” which the Small Business Administration has defined as an ownership stake of at least 20%.

It is not clear if Pelosi violated any of the ethics rules. None of her family’s holdings in businesses that received PPP loans is mentioned in her ethics disclosures – suggesting the family’s stakes fell below the reporting threshold.

Nevertheless, the Pelosis profited handsomely from the bailout funds she advocated for as speaker of the House. The Restaurant Revitalization Fund, one of the additional programs launched by the new round of pandemic spending, provided $5 million to the Auberge du Soleil in June 2021. The funds were not restricted by congressional ownership of the underlying business entities. The resort also won a second PPP loan that totaled about $2 million in 2021. The first PPP loan, awarded the previous year, provided $2.9 million – helping the Pelosis earn millions on an investment that has rarely turned a significant profit, according to Nancy’s ethics disclosures. 

This was also the case for the Piatti Restaurant Company, the California-based pizza and Italian restaurant chain owned in part by Pelosi, which ended up receiving about $15 million in a mix of PPP and RRF grants and forgiven loans. The Pelosi household, in turn, received up to $1 million in partnership income distributions from their investment in the restaurant in 2021, the year that the company received the bulk of the government assistance.

The investment return that year from Piatti was also the highest in over a decade for the Pelosis. In previous years, they typically earned less than $50,000 from their stake in the pizza chain.

The taxpayer assistance to the Pelosi-backed resorts and restaurants may have come at the expense of other struggling businesses. In total, the Auberge du Soleil and Piatti won over $14.2 million in Restaurant Revitalization Fund grants, money that was shepherded through Congress by Pelosi and authorized by President Biden’s signature American Rescue Plan legislation. Most applicants were not as fortunate. Less than a third of the eateries, pubs and diners that sought funding from the program were approved, and the fund was quickly depleted after it opened.

The billions of dollars in COVID money was cast as a targeted measure to save the economy. More recent analysis has found the rushed programs were poorly designed and were a significant factor in the high levels of inflation experienced over the last four years.

Estimates of how much government money was misspent widely vary. The Associated Press reported that fraudsters potentially stole more than $280 billion from the assorted pandemic relief programs. A Senate report noted that wasted and abused pandemic funding ended up in the form of “Lamborghinis, luxury vacations, extravagant jewelry, and even an alpaca farm.”

“The sheer amount of taxpayer losses due to pandemic relief fraud and abuse,” noted Craig Eyermann, a fellow at the Independent Institute, was on the “order of hundreds of billions of dollars.”

There is no indication that the Pelosis did anything illegal. But Eyermann and other ethics experts argue the funds posed conflict of interest issues. He’s not surprised that wealthy lawmakers tapped COVID-related largesse. “To even pursue it,” he added, “they put themselves ahead of those who truly needed it.”

end

Fani flushed down the toilet: She is disqualified from Trump election interference case. Let us see where this lands

(zerohedge)

Fani Flushed: Court Rules Fulton DA Disqualified From Trump ‘Election Interference’ Case

Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 10:37 AM

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has been disqualified from prosecuting President-elect Trump in his election interference case by a Georgia court of appeals.

While the court didn’t throw out Trump’s indictment, Willis and the assistant DAs working in her office were found to have “no authority to proceed” with the case.

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The new ruling means that Georgia’s Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council will need to find another prosecutor to take over the case and decide whether to continue pursuing it – though if Willis decides to appeal to the state Supreme Court, that could be delayed.

Needless to say, CNN is crestfallen.

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