GOLD PRICE UP $29.75 TO $2624.75
SILVER PRICE UP $0.43 TO $29.45
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2622.20
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.48
Bitcoin morning price:$94172 DOWN 2667 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,788 UP 51 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $7.75 TO $932.10
Palladium price; UP 12.05 TO $921.55
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3768.70 UP 33.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2085.91 UP 13.20 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,515.20 UP 11.50 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)
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EXCHANGE;
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,592.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/19/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/23/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 274
152 C DORMAN TRADING 6
167 C MAREX 66
190 H BMO CAPITAL 12
323 C HSBC 255
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19
661 C JP MORGAN 6
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 10 24
905 C ADM 10 9
TOTAL: 347 347
JPMorgan stopped 61/347
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 347 NOTICES FOR 34,700 OZ 1.0793 TONNES
total notices so far: 24,624 contracts for 2,462,400 Oz (76.590 tonnes)
FOR DEC
SILVER NOTICES: 45 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.225 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9012 for 45.060 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $24.75 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.43 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 457.597 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 78 CONTRACTS TO 147,377 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0,25 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1014 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THE RAID WAS CALLED UPON AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS. THEY SUCCEEDED QUITE A BIT WITH //THURSDAY PRICING BUT FAILED TO KNOCK OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 935 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 1417 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FRIDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 1014 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THURSDAY’S COMEX SESSION AND ACCESS TRADING. TWO WEEKS AGO, WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF .5000 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/ THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .66 MILLION OZ/NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS FOR THE MONTH: 1.16 MILLION OZ.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 1417 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.25) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A A HUGE GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1014 OI. CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 935 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK , TOTALLING 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE 179 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.895 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.
// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 45.225 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 46.385 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1417 CONTRACTS)/ TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: added 514 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 DAYS, total 25,100 contracts: OR 125.500 MILLION OZ (1673 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 125.500 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 125.500 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE/ WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ)
RESULT: WE HAD AN SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 78 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 935 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 40.435 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR EQUALS 46.385 MILLION OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 46.385 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 935 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 1417 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION + ACCESS. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY
/ LITTLE NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (1416) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, AND PROBABLY NOT TODAY.
WE HAD 45 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.225 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4062 OI CONTRACTS TO 457,814 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED A SMALL SIZED 192 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (4062 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $45.00 IN PRICE THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 57.284 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 159 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 15900 OZ ( 0.4945 TONNES). WE MUST NOW ADD 10.6406 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON 5 OCCASIONS IN THIS ACTIVE DECEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
/NEW STANDING 88.8996 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $45.00 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2502 OI CONTRACTS (8.049 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 159 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (15,900 OZ) ALONG WITH THE 10.6406 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH //NEW TOTAL TONNES OF DELIVERY: 88.8996 TONNES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 6650 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,622
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2396 CONTRACTS WITH 4062 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 6650 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2502 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1684 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A STRONG LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6650 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 4062 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2502 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.117 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 15,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 5 PRIOR OCCASIONS OF 10.6406 TONNES//NEW STANDING 88.8996 TONNES
//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 88.8996 TONNES
/ 3) STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE THURSDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING SPECULATOR LONGS, AS DESPITE OUR $45.00 PRICE LOSS, WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. HOWEVER, STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1684 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///159 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,900 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 103,107 CONTRACTS OF 10,310,700 OZ OR 320.07 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6873 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 320.07 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 320.07 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 9.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 320.07 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an exchange for physical issuance for this month/maybe this time we will surpass March 2022 record of 409 tonnes for the month)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 78 CONTRACTS OI TO 147,377 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 935 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 935 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 935 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 78 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 935 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1014 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS A HUGE 5.070 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.25 LOSS IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/FRIDAY MORNING THURSDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 31.81 PTS OR 0.16%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 111.68 OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.17%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3024 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3024// Oil DOWN TO 68.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 72.53 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4042 CONTRACTS TO 457,814 WITH OUR HUMONGOUS LOSS IN PRICE OF $45.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE SURPRISINGLY LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD AS WE HAD, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (6650). THUS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2502 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED MONSTER RAID AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE WESNESDAY AND THURSDAY ATTACK AND AGAIN OFFERED A THANK YOU NOTE TO THE FED FOR THEIR WONDERFUL LARGESSE. THE LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD CONTINUED WITH HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THIS WEEK INCLUDING YESTERDAY..
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 202, AND 203 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD LIKE THESE PAST 4 DAYS OF RAIDS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 6650 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 6650 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6650 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2502 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6650 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD LOSS OF 4062 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $45.00 THURSDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED SIZED 1684 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE NOVEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE FIRST WEEK AND A HALF OF DECEMBER BUT THAT DRAMATICALLY CHANGED WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY WITH TUESDAY’S COMEX RAID AND IT CONTINUED ON WITH YESTERDAY’S (WEDNESDAY) TRADING AS WELL.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (88.8996 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 78.239 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 10.6406 TONNES EQUALS 88.8996 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $45.00/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (FRIDAY MORNING), AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.
19 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THE MONTH NOW TOTALS 10.6406 TONNES. NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 8.049 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 15,900 OZ OR 0.4994 TONNES, TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL OF 10.6406 TONNES. THUS TAKEN TOGETHER,, THE TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER IS:
78.239 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) +
10.6406 TONNES (EX FOR RISK)
EQUALS: 88.8996 TONNES
/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 88.8996 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 88.8996 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $45.00
WE HAD 192 CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2502 CONTRACTS OR 250200 (8.049 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 201,177 contracts: very weak //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A LITTLE GREATER EXTENT.
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
DEC 20
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 482.263 oz Loomis 15 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 20,016.218 OZ ASAHI (REAL GOLD DEPOSITED) 6,365.59 OZ BRINKS (real gold deposited) total deposit 26,381.808 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | a)64.302 BRINKS OZ (2 KILOBARS) b) 160,758.000 oz JPMorgan (5,000 kilobars) total deposit customer: 160,822.302 5002 KILOBARS |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 347 notice(s) 34,700 OZ 1.0793 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 530 contracts 53000 OZ 1.684 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 24,624 notices 2,462,400 oz 76.590 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 2
i) Into dealer ASAHI 20,016.215 oz real gold
ii) Into dealer Brinks 6,315.59 oz real gold
total dealer deposits: 26,381.808 oz
we have 2 customer deposit
i) Into BRINKS 64.303 oz (2 kilobars)
ii) Into JPMorgan 160,758.000 oz (5000 kilobars)
total deposits 160,822.302 oz 5002 kilobars
strictly a paper gold entry.
withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Loomis: 482.263 oz (15 kilobars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 482,263oz 15 kilobars
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 877 contracts having LOST 303 contracts. We had A HUGE 462 contracts served on THURSDAY, so we GAINED a HUGE 159 contracts or 15,900 oz (0.4944 TONNES) underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.
JANUARY LOST 81 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 4117
FEBRUARY LOST 3413 CONTRACTS TO 339,501 .
We had 347 contracts filed for today representing 34,700 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 347 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,624 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(877 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (347 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,515,400OZ OR 78.239 TONNES. to which we add 10.6406 tonnes of exchange for risk WHICH EQUALS 88.8996 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (24,624 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (877 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (347 x 100 oz which equals 2,515,400 oz (78.239 TONNES) + 10.6406 tonnes of ex. for risk MONTH OF DEC //new total GOLD STANDING 88.8996 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 88.8996 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2092,357.555 oz 65.08 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,453,100.013 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,561,683.942/// 266.30 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,891,416.071 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,469326 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 201.223 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/1,877,000 oz = 19.15% of entire inventory..
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 20. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE DEC 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 9968.971 OZ cnt . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | NIL |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1185,325.140 oz Loomis |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 45 CONTRACT(S) (225,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 33 contracts (0.165 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 9012 Contracts (45.060 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits
a) Into Loomis: 1,185,325.140 oz
total customer deposit 1,185,325.140oz
We had 1 withdrawals
i) Out of CNT 9968.971 oz
total withdrawal 9,968,971 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.000million oz/313.574million or 42.90%
adjustments 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 78.078MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 313.574 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 78 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 175 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
193 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON THURSDAY SO WE HAD A FAIR 18 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP I.E. 90,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 62 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2222
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 140 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 346
MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 98 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 118.072
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 45 for 225,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 71,914 good// CONSIDERABLE, t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9012x 5,000 oz = 45.060 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (78) and the number of notices served upon today (45)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month: 9012 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(78) minus number of notices served upon today (45)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 45.225 MILLION OZ. + to which we add 1.16 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR////new total 46.385 MILLION OIOZ
New total standing: 46.385 million oz.
There are 78.078 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
DEC 20 WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES
DEC 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES
DEC 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 860.74 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ
DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ
DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ
DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 457.597 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
Schiff: Prepare For A Return To QE
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 12:20 PM
Peter recently joined Anthony Scaramucci for an interview on Speak Up, a YouTube show hosted on the Wealthion channel. The duo discuss Jerome Powell’s recent statement, pointing out the dissonance between his assertions and reality. Peter also predicts a return to QE-like monetary policy, noting that a recent surge in long term interest rates will likely motivate inflationary policy in 2025.
Schiff begins by describing the surprising resilience of the current economic bubble, stressing that policymakers like Powell are not openly admitting their role in enabling it:
What surprised me, Anthony, is that the bubble has gotten so big without any adverse consequences. In fact, one of the questions that Powell got was, does the amount of debt impact your decisions on raising rates– which of course it does– but he lied and said, ‘Oh, no, no, no, we’re nowhere near there. I mean, we don’t even consider how much debt the US government has. We raise rates to whatever level we think is appropriate. We’re not in a position yet where the government has so much debt that interest rates are a significant factor.’
Peter recounts how the initial experiment with Quantitative Easing (QE) laid the foundation for perpetual debt expansion, defying his early predictions that the bubble would burst sooner:
But I’m surprised that, you know, from the launching of QE1, which, you know, when they first launched it, they didn’t call it QE1 because they all assumed it was going to be one and done. I was one of the few people that said, no, this is the beginning of a process that will never end. But we’ve now added $30 trillion of debt.
He notes that while the dollar still appears stable next to other weak currencies, its underlying purchasing power continues to erode, raising serious long-term questions:
So the purchasing power of the dollar has gone down. But relative to the euro or the Japanese yen or other currencies, the dollar’s doing pretty well. And interest rates are still relatively low. You know, the government is paying four and a half percent on a 30 year treasury. That seems ridiculously low given the enormity of the debt and the probability that it’s going to get inflated away. So yeah, the bubble has gone on for a lot longer than I thought.
The mounting debt load, coupled with low savings and high interest rates, traps households in a system that few politicians dare to reform:
They’re paying record high interest rates on that debt on their credit card. And so they’re desperate for the situation to change. But unfortunately, none of the candidates, and I think Trump would be included, have the guts to actually do what’s needed. I mean, even though Trump has now got himself surrounded by Elon Musk … just based on what he did in his first term, and I don’t see a huge transformation. I think Trump said what he needed to say to get elected.
Printing money to fund deficits ultimately leads to inflation as citizens pay for government largesse at the grocery store and the gas pump:
And so if there’s a difference between what the government spends and what it collects, which in the United States, there’s a multi trillion dollar difference every year, the public has to pay for that one way or another. We don’t get all this government for free. And if we just print the money to cover the deficit, that doesn’t mean it’s a freebie. What happens is the value of all the money that already exists goes down, prices go up. And those additional prices, those price hikes, that’s how we pay for the bigger government. We pay for it through inflation and a reduction in the value of our money.
Peter concludes by warning that the Federal Reserve will likely resort to renewed intervention, further eroding the dollar’s integrity and boosting the long-term case for tangible assets like gold:
“I do think they’re going to restart the QE engine. Because I think that they’ve already lost control of the long end of the bond market. Because one of the forecasts that I made that I got right recently, I was saying that when the Fed cuts rates, that was going to be the bottom of the long term rates and that they would go up…
And that’s going to be very problematic for the Fed because it’s going to be harmful to the economy, to the housing market. And when we’re in a recession, or when the recession gets worse, I think the Fed is going to be pressured to try to lower long term rates.
END
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
Alasdair Macleod
Gold and silver in sell-off
Strong dollar and rising UST yields are destabilising GBP, EUR, JPY, and their bond markets. These are the precursor of a global debt crisis — the ideal setup for higher gold prices next year.
Gold and silver declined further this week, after Jay Powell’s comments having cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼% to 4.25%—4.50% range. In European trade this morning, gold was $2606, down $41 from last Friday’s close, and silver $28.90, down $1.65. Turnover in both Comex contracts was light in the week ahead of Christmas.
All eyes were on the Fed as Powell delivered the expected cut but downplayed the prospects for further interest rate cuts next year. He justified this by saying that he was optimistic about the economic outlook, and the economy is “… in a really good place. I expect another good year next year”.
Consequently, the yields on US Treasuries rose towards the highest post-covid levels. The next chart is of the 10-year UST Note yield, which with a golden cross under the yield’s value indicates it has further to rise:
Macroeconomic opinion is that higher bond yields are bad for gold, which is why gold and silver were marked down. It is a myth borne out of the 1980—2000 carry trade whereby gold was leased at 1.5%, sold, and the proceeds invested in T-Bills. But the myth persists, and consequently hedge funds and others sell paper gold to buy dollars on an interest rate shock such as we saw this week.
It may go further, because light trade in these thin markets reflects an absence of paper traders leading to volatility. Bullion banks with short positions will also want to see year-end mark-to-market values as low as possible. However, looking at Open Interest, we see that Comex futures are approaching oversold territory, which I take to be 450,000 contracts:
The problem for the shorts is that stands-for-delivery are draining the Comex establishment of bullion. In the fifteen sessions since Thanksgiving, over 75 tonnes of gold and 1,393 tonnes of silver have leeched out of its possession, not to mention the drain from Exchanges-for-Physical, whereby futures are swapped for forward positions in London. This may be arbitrage, but it almost certainly includes forward purchases for delivery and is a hidden demand factor.
In short, gold’s move down this week has the characteristics of a sell-off and a prelude to a bear squeeze in an increasingly tight market for next year. Central banks, wealth funds, and predominantly Asian sources trying to lighten up on western currencies continue to take all the bullion on offer. At the moment these forces are marginal ,driven by the largest buyers taking a view on credit which is yet to be adopted by a wider public, particularly in the western hemisphere.
Following Powell’s statement, the shift to higher dollar bond yields is having a profound effect on other currencies and bond markets. With its socialist government, Britain’s sterling and gilt market is particularly vulnerable. The next chart is of sterling, which is clearly bearish with a death cross forming and the value collapsing beneath:
Next is the ultra-long 2071 gilt, which echoes sterling’s bearishness pointing to significantly higher yields:
Similar cases can be made for Japan and the Eurozone. While the outlook for these currencies and their bonds is dire, the dollar has built on its post-election rally with the trade-weighted index looking bullish having broken out above resistance.
That the dollar’s TWI has further to go and with global markets unprepared for rising bond yields threaten multiple debt and credit crises elsewhere. When markets understand the implications for the entire fiat currency system, the move to get out of them into gold will gain momentum. In short, this is the ideal setup for a collapse of the currency/credit bubble and a substantial boost for gold.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Support GATA financially and get a 1-ounce silver round commemorating the organization’s work
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-12-19 19:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
7:52p ET Thursday, December 19, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Longstanding Western central bank policy of monetary metals price suppression has never been more vulnerable than it is today.
Governments and central banks around the world have been defecting from the policy this year, accumulating gold and silver instead of lending them.
And some countries — those associated with the BRICs group — are even thinking about creating an international currency with which they can avoid the U.S. government and the dollar and protect their sovereignty against U.S. economic sanctions.
Shorting gold through derivatives is no longer a sure mechanism for profit. To the contrary, the practice now threatens to blow up the governments, central banks, and associated banks still using it.
Documenting, litigating against, and complaining about monetary metals price suppression for 25 years, GATA has alerted investors, governments, mining companies, and news organizations around the world. No one in the monetary metals sector denies metals price suppression any longer; most people in the sector take it for granted even as most remain too scared to discuss it lest they risk getting in trouble with their governments and banks.
The U.S. Treasury Department, its Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Bank for International Settlements have turned out not to be “conspiracy theories” but actual conspiracies in operation. If you don’t believe us, try attending their meetings. There are reasons they won’t let you in — reasons defining “conspiracy.”
But the struggle against monetary metals price suppression has not yet been won, and we need your help.
GATA is still the only organization in the world devoted to waging the struggle for free and transparent monetary metals markets, which is a struggle for limited and accountable government generally.
Advancing this cause takes resources. It doesn’t happen on its own.
But if you help GATA today, we have something special for you.
Our friends at Money Metals Exchange in Eagle, Idaho, support our struggle so much that they have minted a beautiful 1-ounce silver round honoring GATA — and they want you to have at least one.
On the front of the round is an engraving copied from the GATA painting by Alain Despert, depicting GATA as a modern-day Don Quixote leading a march of gold and silver advocates on the U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington:
The back of the round shows the torch of liberty breaking the chains of price suppression and recognizing gold and silver as the crucial defenders of liberty:
You can purchase the GATA commemorative silver round from Money Metals Exchange for around $34 here:
But if you’d like to help GATA directly, each donation of $250 to GATA will entitle the donor to one of these silver rounds, which GATA will arrange to have shipped to the donor from Money Metals Exchange, which is now the operator of the largest precious metals depository in the United States west of New York, a depository larger than even Fort Knox.
Your gift today will propel GATA’s important work, and we’ll be very grateful for it.
We just need to remind donors that the metal value of each of the rounds they receive as thanks for their donation must be subtracted from federal tax-deductibility of their contribution to GATA. For example, with the silver round priced at $34, a $250 donation made to GATA would be federally tax-deductible for $216.
Of course these silver rounds are likely to increase in value along with the silver price in the years ahead — another reason to consider supporting GATA this way.
So please consider making a donation to GATA right now — today — especially now that this special 25th anniversary GATA silver round is available to memorialize it.
To donate, please mail a check payable to GATA to:
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Conn. 06043-7541 USA
Or visit GATA’s internet site here —
Please include your e-mail address so we can thank you without incurring the time and expense of surface mail. And if you’re donating $250 or more, please let us know your shipping address so we can speed the silver round on its way to you.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Are China’s Big Gold Purchases For Protection Against The Dollar… Or To Attack It?
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 09:30 AM
Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,
After taking a six-month break from an 18-month gold-buying spree, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) resumed its policy of large gold purchases in November.
On Oct. 31, gold reached a record price of $2,790.15 an ounce. Although it fell 5 percent last month, it remains about 28 percent higher for the year.
What’s behind China’s gold fever?
Gold Value Fluctuations Don’t Matter to Beijing
Although the value of the PBOC’s gold portfolio is subject to fluctuating market prices, China’s central bank seems to be more concerned about acquiring as much gold as it can and less concerned about changing valuations. In fact, according to Bloomberg, by the end of August of this year, the PBOC’s gold holdings reached 2,165 tons or about 4 percent of its total foreign reserves. Not surprisingly, in 2023, China led the world’s financial institutions in gold acquisitions and may do so in 2025.
Domestic Demand: A Partial Cause of China’s Gold Fever
There are several explanations for why Beijing is pursuing a bold gold policy. Certainly, gold has long been a safe haven for investors, especially during economic uncertainty. Currently, several economic factors are projecting uncertainty worldwide, including in China, which is driving demand. The ongoing property sector meltdown, an unreliable stock market, lower consumer spending, missed GDP growth targets, and the falling value of the yuan are just a few—and the people know this.
What’s more, there aren’t many good places for the Chinese to invest at home, and capital controls make it difficult for most Chinese to take advantage of foreign opportunities. Given gold’s history as a reliable store of value, it’s attractive to all levels of investors, resulting in rising domestic demand. For all these reasons, the PBOC is seeking to meet the Chinese public’s demand for gold.
Global Events Drive Uncertainty
But Beijing’s gold-forward strategy involves more than simply meeting domestic demand. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, including the evolving situation in Syria, have led to a far less predictable international order. Today, the world is leaning more toward uncertainty than predictability, which typically leads to a rise in the demand for gold.
This has undoubtedly been a factor in driving gold prices higher, but it hasn’t had much impact on China’s acquisition plans, which have been in place for the past several years.
The Strategic Elements of Gold Acquisition
Global instability aside, the strategic goal behind Beijing’s gold policy is, at minimum, to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar. That would include protecting itself as much as possible from the punitive measures—such as trade sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs—that Washington often imposes upon its economic or geopolitical adversaries. Both China and Russia have been and are subject to sanctions and tariffs by the United States.
Even though the U.S. dollar’s prominence in the world has diminished in recent years, 64 percent of global debt, 54 percent of world trade, and about 59 percent of global foreign currency reserves are denominated in U.S. dollars—the nearest competitor is the euro, at 20 percent.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is correct to assume that more punitive economic policies from Washington will negatively affect China. These concerns have become especially acute, with President-elect Donald Trump set to return to the White House in January 2025. Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and services and even add sanctions based on China’s behavior on trade and other factors.
A Gold-Backed Yuan to Compete With the Dollar?
However, Trump isn’t the key factor in Beijing’s gold policy. The CCP’s long-term strategy is to replace the United States as a global hegemon. To do so, it must replace the dollar with the yuan, regardless of who occupies the White House. China’s gold acquisitions play a major role in that ambitious plan. The thinking is that a gold-backed yuan would eventually make it more desirable than it is today.
That’s precisely why Beijing steadily replaced its U.S. dollar Treasury bond holdings with gold well before the 2024 election cycle. Shrinking China’s U.S. bond portfolio is the other half of Beijing’s dollar replacement strategy. Selling large amounts of bonds may lower market demand and encourage other nations to do the same.
To put it in perspective, in early 2022, China’s U.S. Treasury bond portfolio exceeded $1 trillion. By May 2024, it had decreased to $768.30 billion. That trend is likely to continue. At some point, China hopes that it will be able to shore up the value of the yuan to at least compete with the dollar on the world stage.
A Gold-Backed BRICS Currency to Counter Trump’s Policies?
As China continues to acquire gold, it accelerates its plan for de-dollarization. As a founding member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) currency, China is the largest economic power in the group, which is significant. The BRICS currency agreement was formed to compete with the dollar in international trade via bilateral trade agreements between members that excluded the use of the dollar.
With the recent expansion of the BRICS group (BRICS-Plus), which now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), their combined economies exceed 50 percent of the world’s GDP. Saudi Arabia received an invitation to join BRICS but has not yet formally done so. By contrast, the U.S. economy is about 27 percent of global GDP. What’s more, the total gold holdings of BRICS-Plus members is nearly 17 percent of all the gold in central banks worldwide. It’s also worth noting that along with China, Russia and India have also been steadily adding to their gold reserves over the years.
Clearly, the decision to expand BRICS membership gives the group much more influence globally, with greater advantages in economic power, gold reserves, market reach, and others.
Is it not reasonable to speculate that a gold-backed BRICS-Plus currency may be introduced to the world before too long—perhaps even as a response to the incoming Trump administration?
If there’s a better explanation for China’s massive appetite for gold, what might it be?
* * *
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/
END
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE interviewing Alasdair Macleod//no 204
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 31.81 PTS OR 0.16%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 111.68 OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.17%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3024 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3024// Oil DOWN TO 68.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 72.53 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.3024
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3024
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 31.81 PTS OR 0.16%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 111.68 PTS OR 0.29%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 107.89 EURO RISES TO 1.0394 UP 29 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.043 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.71…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2925 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.479 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.999
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.164
3j Gold at $2612.45/Silver at: 29.03 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 70/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 102.71
3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.71 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.043% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8946 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9297 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.541 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.734 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.280 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.19…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6030 UP 2 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.352 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.119 DOWN 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
S&P Tumbles, Set For Biggest Weekly Drop Since September Ahead Of Massive $6.5 Trillion OpEx
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 08:30 AM
US equity futures and global markets are broadly risk-off to end a turbulent week after the US House rejected a temporary funding plan backed by Donald Trump (38 republicans voted against the bill) which would have avoided a gov’t shutdown that otherwise will start a midnight, with trade war concerns mounting (Trump said “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the US by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise it is tariffs all the way!!!”). Expect elevated volumes today due to the last option expirty/quarterly rebalance of the year. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.8%, Nasdaq futs tumble 1.4%, with technology stalwarts such as Tesla and Nvidia sliding in early trading as momentum reversed with a bang. Europe’s Stoxx 600 weakened 1.7% as Novo Nordisk A/S fell by the most on record on the back of disappointing data from a treatment trial; the rest of the world not much better: FTSE -95bps, DAX -1.3%, CAC -1.05%, Nikkei-29bps, Hang Seng -16bps, Shanghai -6bps. 10Y treasury yields dipped a little after surging in the past three days, down 2bps to 4.54%, with the Bloomberg US dollar index also easing back a bit as both the yen and euro gain. Bitcoin tumbled amid the riskoff mood, sliding as much as 8% to a low of $92K and dragging down MicroStrategy Inc. and other crypto-related companies in premarket trading. Oil reversed earlier losses with gold also rising on expectations of aggressive Chinese stimulus. Today’s economic calendar will see the November core PCE, personal income and spending as well as the latest UMich data.
In premarket trading, FedEx rose 6% after the company said it plans to spin off its freight division into a separate publicly traded company in a deal that will streamline the parcel giant. Eli Lilly jumped 5% after competitor Novo Nordisk A/S gave data from a highly anticipated trial of its experimental weight loss drug, CagriSema, that fell short of expectations. Nike meanwhile tumbled 7% as management expected revenue in the current quarter to decline in the low double digits, a steeper drop than the 7.7% decline posted last quarter. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
- Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW) rises 14% as Brazil’s Suzano SA is exploring an offer for the company, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
- Coinbase (COIN) drops 6%, down along with other stocks that have exposure to cryptocurrencies, as interest-rate caution from the Fed this week dampens sentiment on speculative investments. Robinhood (HOOD) -6%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) -6%
- Humacyte (HUMA) jumps 56% after the Food and Drug Administration granted full approval of its bio-engineered human tissue product for adults with arterial injury.
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) rises 2% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in the energy company.
- US Steel (X) drops 6% after the steel producer warned its fourth-quarter earnings will be lower than anticipated as steel prices remain depressed in the US and as the demand environment in Europe is weak.
The S&P 500 was heading for its biggest weekly drop since at least September, with the index down 3% on the week after the Fed’s political hawkish pivot sparked a global selloff.
Stock market volatility spiked in recent days as a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve made traders question whether this year’s tech-fueled rally could extend further in a higher rates environment, despite a resilient US economy. Friday’s personal consumption expenditures data for November, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, will offer further clues on 2025’s rate path. For now, the swaps market is implying between one and two quarter-point reductions for next year, a decrease from a month ago when two cuts were fully priced.
Adding to the nerves is Friday’s US options expiration, which has historically stoked turbulence, and offers a final hurdle to end-of-year calm. The quarterly “triple-witching” will see a whopping $6.5 trillion worth of options tied to individual stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds fall off the board, this year’s largest. The opex will also collapse the dealer gamma, unclenching the market, and allowing for much wider volatility in the coming (very illiquid) days.
The fact that CTAs are also sellers in all scenarios (according to Goldman) isn’t helping the already downbeat mood.
1 Week:
- Flat Tape = $10.2bn for SALE
- Up 2Stdv = $7bn for SALE
- Down 2.5Stdv = $14.5bn for SALE
1 Month:
- Flat Tape = $24bn for SALE
- Up 2Stdv = $2.5bn for SALE
- Down 2.5Stdv = $60bn for SALE
Concerns are also growing about the implications of the Republican-led House rejecting a temporary funding plan backed by President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday, with a US government shutdown looming in less than 24 hours.
The development can “inevitably increase the market volatility in the short term, especially after Fed’s hawkish pivot two days ago,” Jasmine Duan, a senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management Asia, told Bloomberg TV. Investors face risks from “potentially more sticky inflation and also the debt issue in the US,” she said.
“There’s plenty of room for volatility to kick in and a selloff to take place,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “There’s going to be less liquidity as well. You’ll see a rapid pace of moves taking place as people adjust their portfolios for the year-end and that could affect all asset classes.”
European stocks also slumped with all sectors dropping; banks, miners and construction are the worst-performing sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 slumps 1.2% as Novo Nordisk A/S fell by the most on record on the back of disappointing data from a treatment trial. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, dropping 0.5%. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
- Fraport gains as much as 8% as JPMorgan upgraded the Frankfurt airport operator to overweight, following its announcement that it has closed a four-year deal with airlines on fees.
- Sobi gains as much as 3.1%, the most in almost a month, after the Swedish biotechnology firm saw its rating upgraded to buy from hold at DNB, with the broker saying the company is “on course for a strong 4Q.”
- Belships rises 27%. Blue Northern, an SPV, will start a recommended voluntary cash tender offer of NOK20.50 per share to acquire all issued and outstanding shares in Belships, according to a statement after market close Thursday.
- RAI Way shares rise as much as 4.1% in Milan trading after the owners of the state-backed TV operator and its local rival Ei Towers SpA signed a memorandum to explore a possible merger.
- Tomra gains as much as 7.3% after Pareto Securities double-upgraded the Norwegian recycling-systems manufacturer, citing improving long-term prospects in Europe.
- Zealand Pharma shares drop as much as 11% after the FDA wrote a letter recommending an additional clinical trial for the Danish drugmaker’s experimental medicine glepaglutide for short bowel syndrome.
- Hornbach shares fall as much as 13% after the German home store operator’s third-quarter results showed the impact of lower sales, especially in Germany, and salary increases.
- Idorsia shares plunge as much as 47%, the most on record, after the Swiss pharmaceuticals producer said it’s considering options to extend its operational cash runway after the signing of a planned global rights deal for aprocitentan won’t be achieved in 2024.
- TeamViewer shares fall as much as 4.6% on Friday to the lowest in over two years, as Goldman Sachs downgraded its recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy, saying the software firm’s recent acquisition of 1E makes its outlook for shareholder returns less attractive.
Asian stocks fell for a sixth day, heading for their longest losing streak in eight months, as traders continued to mull the prospect of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Alibaba Group among the biggest contributors to its decline. Tech-heavy benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan were among the region’s worst performers, declining more than 1% each. The after-effects of this week’s relatively hawkish Fed meeting continued to weigh on Asian stocks, with the regional benchmark less than 1% away from falling into a technical correction. Traders awaited US inflation data due later Friday for further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook.
In FX, a Bloomberg gauge for the dollar was on course for its best week in a month despite ticking down on Friday. AUD and SEK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX; JPY and CHF outperform. The yen erased losses after Japan’s key inflation gauge strengthened for the first time in three months and Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned Japan would take appropriate action if there are excessive moves in the yen. BRL leads gains in EMFX, rising 2.5% with Brazil’s congress inching closer to delivering a diluted spending plan. A key gauge of Asian shares dropped for a sixth day.
In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve with gains on the day led by the front- and belly, keeping 2s10s and 5s30s spread near Thursday’s session highs. Treasury yields richer by 4bp to 1bp across the curve with front-end led gains steepening 2s10s spread by 1.5bp on the day and 5s30s by 3.5bp; 10-year yields trade around 4.54%, richer by 2bp on the day with bunds lagging by 1.5bp in the sector and gilts slightly outperforming. Similar bull-steepening trends seen across core European rates over the early London session while S&P futures, European stocks trade lower in a risk-off backdrop. Treasury auctions resume Dec. 23 with $69b 2-year note sale, followed by $70b 5-year and $44b 7-year note sales Dec. 24 and Dec. 26
In commodities, WTI drifts 1% lower to trade near $68.68. Most base metals are in the green. Spot gold rises roughly $10 to trade near $2,604/oz. Bitcoin falls below $95,000.
Today’s US economic calendar includes November personal income/spending, PCE price index (8:30am), December University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services index (11am). The Fed speaker schedule includes Daly due to appear on Bloomberg TV (7:30am) and Williams on CNBC (8:30am)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 5,826.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.0% to 501.63
- MXAP down 0.8% to 179.14
- MXAPJ down 1.2% to 565.83
- Nikkei down 0.3% to 38,701.90
- Topix down 0.4% to 2,701.99
- Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 19,720.70
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,368.07
- Sensex down 1.5% to 78,039.19
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 8,066.96
- Kospi down 1.3% to 2,404.15
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.0383
- Brent Futures down 1.0% to $72.17/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,603.73
- US Dollar Index down 0.17% to 108.22
Top Overnight News
- China’s one-year bond yields plunged 17 bps to the lowest since 2003, just a few hours after sliding below the psychological barrier of 1%. The stars seem to be aligned for this year’s rally to extend well into 2025. BBG
- Japan’s national CPI for Nov accelerates vs. Oct, with the headline jumping to +2.9% (up from +2.3% in Oct and inline w/the Street) and ex-food/energy climbing to +2.4% (up from +2.3% in Oct and inline w/the Street). WSJ
- Russia’s central bank unexpectedly held rates at 21%, saying monetary conditions tightened and inflation expectations continue to rise. BBG
- UK retail sales for Nov rebounded from Oct, but still fell short of the consensus forecast at +0.3% M/M ex-fuel (vs. -0.9% in Oct and vs. the Street consensus of +0.5%). WSJ
- US president-elect Donald Trump has warned the EU that it must commit to buying “large scale” amounts of US oil and gas or face tariffs. The EU has spent the past month increasing purchases of US goods such as liquified natural gas and agricultural products as means to potentially avoid tariffs from the US. FT
- Brazil’s senators are set to vote on a bill today that further dilutes a package of spending cuts meant to buoy markets. The central bank will step in again to support the real with a FX credit line auction of as much as $4 billion and a spot auction of up to $3 billion. BBG
- The Republican-led House rejected a temporary funding plan backed by Donald Trump to avoid a government shutdown that’ll otherwise happen at midnight. Trump wants a deal that sets March 14 as the new funding deadline and either raises or eliminates the debt ceiling. Thirty-eight GOP lawmakers and almost all Democrats voted against the package. BBG
- NKE (Nike) -4% in the pre as forward guidance/commentary given on call last night came in well below consensus and overshadowed the strong quarter that originally drove stock +10% to $85 post press release.
- AVGO (Broadcom) CEO Hock Tan says the AI spending boom will continue until the end of the decade (“they are investing full-tilt”) as customers seek out the company’s chips as a cheaper alternative to Nvidia. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly lower open after the lead from Wall Street as markets digest a slew of central bank decisions whilst still feeling the hangover from the Fed. ASX 200 was pressured by heavyweight financial, materials, and healthcare sectors, whilst Utilities and IT bucked the trend and posted mild gains. Nikkei 225 was briefly supported by the recent JPY weakness, although later faltered as JPY eventually strengthened following hotter-than-expected CPI and currency jawboning by Japanese officials. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened lower and trimmed losses to later trade, with Chinese markets unfazed as the PBoC maintained its LPRs.
Top Asian News
- Japan cuts view on corporate profits for the first time since March 2023; says economy is recovering moderately.
- China intends to cut tax evasion at online platforms, according to Xinhua.
- PBoC maintained 1yr LPR at 3.10% and 5yr LPR at 3.60% as expected.
- Japan Finance Minister Kato said no comment on FX levels; recently seeing one-sided, sharp moves; will take appropriate action against excessive moves; concerned about recent FX moves, including those driven by speculators, according to Reuters Kato added that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals.
- Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura said gravely concerned about forex moves, and will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves, alarmed including over speculative moves, according to Reuters.
- South Korea to relax FX regulations to improve liquidity conditions, according to the finance ministry.
European bourses began the morning entirely in the red, and continued to proceed lower as the session progressed; as it stands, indices generally reside at worst levels. As it stands, all European sectors find themselves in the red; in-fitting with sentiment. Whilst still in the red, Real Estate fares the best vs peers. Banks are by far the clear underperformer, weighed on by Deutsche Bank, which expects a Q4 EUR 300mln hit due to its Polish subsidiary litigation. US equity futures are in negative territory and drifting lower as the session progresses, following the glum mood seen in European trade. Foxconn (2354 TT) to pause pursuit of Nissan (7201 JT) as Honda (7267 JT) deal talks unfold, via Bloomberg citing sources
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Reeves is posed to visit China in January to revive high-level economic and financial talks, according to Reuters sources.
- NIER sees Swedish GDP for 2025 +1.2%. See the Riksbank rate averaging 1.5% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026
FX
- USD is giving back some of its gains which saw DXY top the 11th November 2022 peak overnight (108.44) to make a 108.48 high. Today will see a slew of Fed speakers on the wires who can help further explain the announcement. Williams, Daly, Hammack are all due on deck with particular interest on the latter given her hawkish dissent at the meeting.
- EUR is edging out slight gains vs. the USD but remains on a 1.03 handle after printing a fresh low for the month earlier @ 1.0344 in the wake of comments from US President-elect Trump cautioning that the EU “must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”. It is worth noting that there is some huge option activity in EUR/USD for today’s NY cut, detailed below.
- JPY is attempting to undo some of the damage seen over the past few sessions as a hawkish Fed cut and lack of a hike from the BoJ has driven the pair from a 153.32 base on Wednesday to a multi-month high overnight at 157.92. Some respite has been granted following hotter-than-expected Japanese CPI overnight and currency jawboning by Japanese officials, who expressed concerns over recent JPY moves.
- GBP flat vs. the USD and lagging peers following soft UK retail sales data for November in what has been a generally busy week for UK data as well as yesterday’s dovish hold by the BoE. Cable has slipped onto a 1.24 handle for the first time since 22nd November with a current session trough at 1.2476.
- AUD unable to make much headway vs. the broadly softer USD in what has been a bruising week for AUD/USD after the pair made a fresh YTD low yesterday at 0.6200 to hit its lowest level since October 2022. Similar price action for NZD/USD which hit a fresh YTD low yesterday at 0.5609 to trade at its lowest level since October 2022.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1901 vs exp. 7.3086 (prev. 7.1911)
- Brazil called an FX credit line auction of up to USD 4bln on December 20th, according to Bloomberg.
USTs
- USTs are modestly firmer but yet to significantly deviate from the unchanged mark in 108-19+ to 108-26+ parameters. Docket ahead features monthly PCE data before the docket turns to Central Bank speak with Fed’s Williams, Daly & Hammack scheduled; the latter is set to explain her dissent. The yield curve continues to steepen though action is modest and a function of the short-end continuing to pull back from post-Fed highs.
- Bunds are incrementally firmer, but similarly to USTs are yet to deviate lastingly from the unchanged mark but have printed a slightly more expansive 133.81 to 134.10 range. Bunds did come under modest pressure on a much hotter than expected German PPI release; but did since pare alongside peers.
- Gilts opened higher by a single tick before slipping to a 92.18 trough and then paring back to unchanged. Since, action has been very limited and choppy in 92.18-48 parameters. Before the open, Retail Sales came in softer than expected but still posted a recovery from the prior.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are softer, continuing to falter after Thursday’s reports that the G7 could adjust the Russian energy price cap with pressure also stemming from the downbeat risk tone. Brent’Feb 25 currently reside near lows at USD 72.20/bbl.
- Gold is firmer and holding around the USD 2.6k/oz mark in a thin range with catalysts for the metal light and after trading flat overnight. XAU is holding in proximity to the 100-DMA at USD 2606/oz.
- 3M LME Copper is defying the risk tone and holding modestly in the green, though still yet to test USD 9k/handle yet.
- India’s finished steel imports from China reach all-time high during April-November, according to Govt data.
- German Parliament has passed its energy law: will accommodate the waiver of internal gas storage levy at intra-EU border points and virtual trading hubs. This entails the gas levy payable to the operator Trading Hub Europe to apply to domestic customers only from Jan 1st 2025.
- Russia’s Kremlin says will act to counter the possible new G7 oil sanctions; will act to minimise any consequences and protect Russian companies, measures will backfire on those who take them.
Geopolitics
- “Israel’s Channel 14 on security officials: Israel is preparing for a new attack against the Houthis in Yemen”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- “Israel’s Channel 13 on officials: optimism remains high that a deal with Hamas is imminent.”, according to Sky News Arabia
- “7 strong explosions are heard in the Ukrainian capital Kiev”, according to Sky News Arabia; Ukraine air defence repelling an attack on Kyiv, according to official cited by Reuters.
- Russia fired a series of Kinjal hypersonic missiles on the capital Kiev, according to Sky News Arabia.
US event calendar
- 08:30: Nov. Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
- 08:30: Nov. PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 08:30: Nov. Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.8%
- 08:30: Nov. Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 08:30: Nov. PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%
- 08:30: Nov. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 08:30: Nov. Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4%
- 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
- 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
- 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 71.9, prior 71.6
- 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 77.1, prior 77.7
- 10:00: Dec. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 74.2, prior 74.0
- 11:00: Dec. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 9
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to the last EMR of 2024. Happy holidays from Henry, Peter, Asim and myself. I say this every year but a huge thanks for reading and interacting with us this year. Thanks for voting in the II survey again where we found out last week we had another couple of 1st places in the global analyst awards. It really means a lot that you took the time to vote, so many thanks. I’ll be off skiing as of Monday but before I go it’s become a tradition to list my favourite TV shows of the year which I’ll do at the end. Regular readers know that if I’m not travelling I try to escape to an hour of TV a night with my wife in between edits of the EMR. I hope you’ve enjoyed some of these too.
Before unveiling the rather salacious number one entry on the list, we have the small matter of a nervy last full week of the year to comment on with a possible US government shutdown dominating proceedings. For those wanting a quiet run up to Xmas, the good news is that there hasn’t been any real follow-through to the Fed-induced slump on Wednesday. The bad news is that an initial recovery in markets struggled to gain traction yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.09%) posting a joint record 14th consecutive day of decliners outnumbering advancers. The data stretches back 100 years so this is some stat. Futures on the S&P 500 are down another -0.36% this morning, so will we break the record today?
There was also scar tissue in bond markets, with 10yr (+4.8bps) and 30yr (+6.0bps) Treasury yields reaching their highest levels since May. The one area where there was a sense that the moves may have been overdone was at the front end, where the rate priced in by the December 2025 meeting was down -4.5bps on the day to 3.96%. For all the speculation about the Fed returning to hikes, it’s worth remembering they still cut rates this week and signalled more ahead, so the easing bias remains, even if it’s not as aggressive as it was. Indeed, investors are still pricing in 37bps of cuts next year, which isn’t too far off the Fed’s median dot at 50bps. So for DB to be correct that there are no cuts next year, we will need the Fed and the market to continue to change their minds.
But when it comes to the next 24 hours, the big question now is whether a US government shutdown is about to happen. The situation has moved quickly since Wednesday, when Elon Musk fiercely criticised the stopgap spending bill negotiated in Congress, with Trump and JD Vance then coming out against it later that day. Yesterday saw House Republicans put forward an alternative proposal that would fund the government through March and raise the debt limit for two years. The debt limit issue had been pushed by Trump who even said he’d be open to abolishing the debt limit altogether, saying he “would support that entirely”. However, the latest bill was voted down by 235 votes to 174 in the House last night, with 38 Republicans joining virtually all Democrats in voting against it. This leaves the Republican House leadership searching for a Plan C with less than 24 hours to go before the shutdown deadline. And as it stands, Polymarket are currently pricing in a 64% chance of a shutdown before year-end.
Whilst all that was happening, we did get some very positive US data yesterday, which helped to reassure investors about the near-term outlook and encouraged a huge curve steepening. That included the weekly initial jobless claims, which fell back to 220k in the week ending December 14 (vs. 230k expected). In addition, the Q3 GDP data was revised higher, coming in at an annualised pace of +3.1% (vs. +2.8% before) and with the PCE inflation for Q3 revised up from +2.1% to 2.2%. The stronger data encouraged a steepening in rates with the 2s10s curve moving up +8.8bps to 24.1bps, which is its steepest closing level since June 2022, back when the Fed began to hike by 75bps per meeting. That came amidst a continued move higher for long-end Treasury yields, as both 10yr yields (+4.8bps to 4.56%) and 30yr yields (+6.0bps to 4.74%) rose to their highest levels since May. This was again driven by real yields, with the 10yr real yield on course to post its largest weekly increase since October 2023 (+21.6bps so far this week). Higher real yields also helped the dollar index (+0.35%) advance for the 9th time in 10 sessions, and up to its highest level since November 2022.
A more bullish narrative initially helped to boost US equities, with the S&P trading more than 1% higher early in the session. But this optimism faded as the day went on and the index was -0.09% lower by the close, building on its -2.95% slump the previous day. The moves were fairly muted across the major indices. The Magnificent 7 (+0.25%) edged higher but the NASDAQ (-0.10%) declined and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.45%) fell back to its lowest level since the US election.
Since I asked on Wednesday for a new moniker for the Mag-7 which may include fast rising Broadcom, I’ve had a wave of suggestions emailed through. Some of them great, some of them funny. However its hard to beat the “BAATMAAN” moniker that’s been quietly doing the rounds for several weeks now. I’ve no idea who first came up with it but well played to them. I’m not sure if our “The Innov-eightors” or “The Domin-eightors” will catch on.
Over in Europe, the main news yesterday came from the Bank of England, who struck a more dovish note than expected. The main decision wasn’t a surprise, keeping the policy rate at 4.75%. But the decision was only made by a 6-3 vote, with the minority preferring a 25bp cut. Moreover, the statement made clear that the path was still towards further easing, and that a “gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remained appropriate.” In turn, that meant yields on 10yr gilts were only up +2.0bps yesterday to 4.58%, which was a much smaller rise than for 10yr bunds (+5.8bps) and OATs (+6.9bps). And perhaps most fascinatingly, 30yr gilt yields (+5.1bps) reached their highest since 2002 at 5.11% and above where they were a couple of years back during the LDI crisis.
Elsewhere in Europe, markets were catching up to the Fed’s hawkish moves the previous day, which happened after the European close. That pushed the STOXX 600 to a sharp -1.51% loss, with similar moves for the DAX (-1.35%), the CAC 40 (-1.22%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.78%). There was a particular underperformance for Swedish assets after the Riksbank’s latest policy decision as well. They cut their policy rate by 25bps, in line with expectations. But they also signalled that easing was nearing its end, saying that if the outlook were unchanged, “the policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025”, with the policy rate forecast showing no further cuts beyond that out to 2027. That backdrop saw the OMX Stockholm 30 Index fall -2.23%, which was the biggest decline for the major European indices, whilst Sweden’s 10yr government bond yield was up +10.6bps.
Overnight, there’s been a fairly mixed performance for the major equity indices. In South Korea, the KOSPI (-1.58%) has experienced sharp losses, along with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-1.24%). However, Japanese equities have been broadly unchanged after the latest inflation data was mostly as expected. It showed headline CPI moving back up to +2.9% in November as expected, whilst core-core inflation was up to a 7-month high of +2.4%. So the Nikkei is holding steady this morning with a +0.03% gain. The main outperformer have been Chinese equities, with the CSI 300 up +0.27%, whilst the Shanghai Comp is up +0.54%. That also comes as China’s 1yr bond yield fell to 1% for the first time since 2009.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include PCE inflation for November, along with the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for December. Over in Europe, we’ll get UK retail sales for November, and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in December. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Daly.
See you on the other side. Happy holidays……
2B) EUROPEAN REPORT
2C ASIAN REPORT
US futures tick lower amid shutdown uncertainty; Trump threatens the EU with tariffs – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 01:19 AM
- APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly lower open as markets digested a slew of central bank decisions whilst still feeling some of the hangover from the Fed.
- US equity futures gradually trickled lower after reports the US House of Representatives defeated the bill to temporarily fund the federal government and avert agency shutdowns beginning on Saturday.
- USD/JPY was choppy overnight as traders reacted to the BoJ presser and then hot Japanese CPI and currency jawboning by officials.
- EUR came under fleeting pressure on remarks from President-elect Trump that the EU needs to make up its deficit to the US, otherwise it is “tariffs all the way”.
- PBoC maintained 1yr LPR at 3.10% and 5yr LPR at 3.60% as expected; Banxico cut its rate by 25bps as expected.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.0% after cash closed -1.6% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, US PCE, Canadian Retail Sales, Quad Witching, Fed’s Daly, Hammack
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include UK Retail Sales, US PCE, Canadian Retail Sales, Quad Witching, Fed’s Daly & Hammack.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were choppy, with SPX and Dow flat after the mega losses seen on Wednesday, while Russell and Nasdaq were sold.
- Sectors were mixed with Utilities, Financials and Tech outperforming, while Real Estate, Materials and Energy lagged.
- SPX -0.09% at 5,867, NDX -0.47% at 21,111, DJIA +0.04% at 42,342, RUT -0.45% at 2,221
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump says “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”
- US House of Representatives defeated a bill to temporarily fund the federal government and avert agency shutdowns beginning on Saturday; Next steps unclear in avoiding government shutdown following House defeat of spending bill, according to Reuters.
- US President-Elect Trump said House Speaker Johnson and the House have come to a very good deal for the American people; urges Republicans and Dems to vote yes. Trump earlier said he would support abolishing the debt ceiling entirely.
- US President-elect Trump says “Congress must get rid of, or extend out to, perhaps, 2029, the ridiculous Debt Ceiling. Without this, we should never make a deal. Remember, the pressure is on whoever is President.”
- Canadian PM Trudeau is to shuffle his cabinet on Friday; the New Canadian Finance Minister said Trudeau has the full support of the cabinet to stay on.
- FedEx Corp (FDX) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 4.05 (exp. 4.06), Revenue 22.0bln (exp. 22.1bln); FY EPS view 19-20 (exp. 19.75, prev. 20-21); FY25 capital outlook USD 5.2bln. FedEx (FDX) announced its intent to separate FedEx freight, creating two industry-leading public companies. +8.5% in after-market trade
- Nike Inc (NKE) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 0.78 (exp. 0.63), Revenue 12.4bln (exp. 12.11bln). Gross margin: 43.6% (prev. 44.6% y/y, exp. 43.1%). CFO said Co. expects Q3 revenue to be down low double digits; said Co. expects Q3 margins to be down about 300-350bps. -0.5% in after-market trade
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly lower open after the lead from Wall Street as markets digest a slew of central bank decisions whilst still feeling the hangover from the Fed.
- ASX 200 was pressured by heavyweight financial, materials, and healthcare sectors, whilst Utilities and IT bucked the trend and posted mild gains.
- Nikkei 225 was briefly supported by the recent JPY weakness, although later faltered as JPY eventually strengthened following hotter-than-expected CPI and currency jawboning by Japanese officials.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened lower and trimmed losses to later trade, with Chinese markets unfazed as the PBoC maintained its LPRs.
- US equity futures initially traded horizontally across the board as markets took a breather following the FOMC-induced slump, although futures gradually trickled lower after reports US House of Representatives defeated the bill to temporarily fund the federal government and avert agency shutdowns beginning on Saturday, with the next steps unclear in avoiding government shutdown following House defeat of spending bill.
- European equity futures indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.7% after cash closed -1.6%.
FX
- DXY saw flat trade within a narrow 108.39-48 range after the index on Thursday briefly topped the 11th November 2022 peak (108.44) to a 108.48 high, with clean air then seen until near 111.00 from earlier in November 2022.
- EUR/USD moved horizontally amid a lack of drivers, with the pair largely driven by the USD. EUR/USD resides in a 1.0347-1.0369 range vs Thursday’s 1.0346-1.0422 parameter.
- However, in recent trade EUR has come under pressure from remarks via US President-elect Trump that the EU must make up the deficit to the US via oil/gas purchases, otherwise it is tariffs.
- GBP/USD held a downward bias following the dovish BoE, with Cable giving up 1.2500 status ahead of Retail Sales data. GBP/USD was in a 1.2476-1.2508 range overnight with the next level to the downside the 22nd Nov low (1.2484). Meanwhile, EUR/GBP rose above 0.8300.
- USD/JPY was initially higher amid some JPY weakness as APAC players reacted to comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the BoJ presser, but the pair later pulled back following hotter-than-expected CPI and currency jawboning by Japanese officials, who expressed concerns over recent JPY moves.
- Antipodeans were both softer amid the risk tone whilst the Kiwi overlooked a narrower trade deficit and a rise in exports.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1901 vs exp. 7.3086 (prev. 7.1911)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures consolidated after T-notes steepened on Thursday in a continuation of the Fed reaction and as US President-elect Trump called for the abolishment of the debt limit.
- Bund futures were initially firmer in tandem with US and Japanese counterparts, with the 10yr German debt future briefly reclaiming a 134 handle after seeing some resistance at the level as European players departed on Thursday. The contract later gave up the modest gains to trade flat intraday.
- 10yr JGB futures outperformed as APAC players reacted to BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference remarks, in which he noted the BoJ will need “considerable time” to see the full picture on wage hikes and Trump policies, adding that the “large picture on wage trends will become clearer in March and April”.
- US Treasury sold USD 22bln in 5yr TIPS: b/c 2.10x. High Yield: 2.121% (prev. 1.67%, six auction average 1.99%). Tail: 5.6bps (prev. 1.5bps, six auction average -0.9bps); 5yr TIPS was trading at c. 2.065% at 13:00 EST. Bid-to-Cover: 2.10x (prev. 2.40x, six auction average 2.50x). Dealer: 25.42% (prev. 7.9%, six auction average 5.55%). Direct: 23.15% (prev. 17.30%, six auction average 16.73%). Indirect: 51.43% (prev. 74.8%, six auction average 77.7%).
- Australia sold AUD 700mln 2028 AGB: b/c 3.93x (prev. 3.54x), average yield 3.9785% (prev. 3.5038%)
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were subdued following a choppy session on Thursday which ultimately saw a lower settlement after a Bloomberg report noted that G7 is looking at measures to firm up the price cap on Russian oil and lowering the price threshold from the current USD 60/bbl to around USD 40/bbl.
- Spot gold saw flat for most of the session before tilting higher despite a lack of catalysts, with the yellow metal hovering just under USD 2,600/oz.
- Copper futures were consolidating after the post-Fed slump which saw 3M LME copper slide under USD 9,000/t to a low of 8,866/tm with fewer project Fed rate cuts not boding well for demand.
- Syria’s largest refinery stopped operating as Iran oil flow ceases, FT reported.
- Russian President Putin authorises foreigners to credit Roubles for payment for Russian gas to the supplier’s account not only in Gazprombank, but also in other banks by 1st April, via a Decree.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin consolidated after tumbling sub-100k with prices hitting lows just under 95k before finding some composure.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC maintained 1yr LPR at 3.10% and 5yr LPR at 3.60% as expected.
- Japan Finance Minister Kato said no comment on FX levels; recently seeing one-sided, sharp moves; will take appropriate action against excessive moves; concerned about recent FX moves, including those driven by speculators, according to Reuters Kato added that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals.
- Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura said gravely concerned about forex moves, and will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves, alarmed including over speculative moves, according to Reuters.
- South Korea to relax FX regulations to improve liquidity conditions, according to the finance ministry.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Nov) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Nov) 2.9% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Japanese CPI Index Ex-Fresh Food (Nov) 109.2 (Prev. 108.8)
- South Korea PPI Growth YY (Nov) 1.4% (Prev. 1.0%, Rev. 1.0%)
- South Korea PPI Growth MM (Nov) 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%, Rev. -0.1%)
- New Zealand Annual Trade Balance (Nov) -8.25B (Prev. -8.96B, Rev. -9.07B)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (Nov) -437.0M (Prev. -1544.0M, Rev. -1658M)
- New Zealand Imports (Nov) 6.92B (Prev. 7.31B, Rev. 7.27B)
- New Zealand Exports (Nov) 6.48B (Prev. 5.77B, Rev. 5.61B)
- Australian Private Sector Credit (Nov) 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Australian Housing Credit (Nov) 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- “Israel’s Channel 14 on security officials: Israel is preparing for a new attack against the Houthis in Yemen”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israeli official said that there is progress in the negotiations on the hostage deal taking place in Doha, but there are still issues of contention and gaps that need to be closed, via Axios’ Ravid.
- “Israel’s Channel 13 on officials: optimism remains high that a deal with Hamas is imminent.”, according to Sky News Arabia.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- “7 strong explosions are heard in the Ukrainian capital Kiev”, according to Sky News Arabia; Ukraine air defence repelling an attack on Kyiv, according to official cited by Reuters.
- Russia fired a series of Kinjal hypersonic missiles on the capital Kiev, according to Sky News Arabia.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French PM Bayrou said they will present a new cabinet before December 25th, according to Reuters.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is posed to visit China in January to revive high-level economic and financial talks, according to Reuters sources.
LATAM
- Mexican Interest Rate (Dec) 10.0% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 10.25%); Vote was unanimous.
- Brazil called an FX credit line auction of up to USD 4bln on December 20th, according to Bloomberg.
- Brazil’s Lower House approved the main text of the fiscal package bill that limits minimum wage increases to 2.5% above inflation.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/USA
Go figure!
(zerohedge/Fu/EpochTimes)
Chinese Agent Pleads Guilty To Operating Secret Police Station In New York
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A New York man has admitted to acting as an illegal Chinese agent by operating a secret police station for Beijing in Manhattan.
Chen Jinping, a 60-year-old U.S. citizen, pleaded guilty on Dec. 18 in front of U.S. District Judge Nina Morrison, a development that prosecutors lauded as the latest progress in countering the Chinese regime’s transnational repression scheme.
Chen was one of two individuals the FBI arrested in April 2023 over the illegal police station, one of more than 100 identified overseas Chinese police outposts Beijing had operated globally.
He faces up to five years in prison.
The New York site runs under the cover of a Chinese organization called the American ChangLe Association in Manhattan’s Chinatown. The association ostensibly serves as a mingling place for immigrants from China’s southeastern Fujian Province, where the namesake district, ChangLe, is based.
Chen was the secretary general of the association at the time of the arrest, while the other man, Lu Jianwang, was the former president. Lu, also known as “Harry Lu,” has pleaded not guilty to the charges and is awaiting trial.
The station was set up in mid-February 2022 and had since assisted an official from China’s Ministry of Public Security, the country’s police apparatus, to locate a person of interest, a California pro-democracy advocate who had served as an advisor to a 2022 congressional candidate from New York State, the federal complaint states.
Weeks before the station came into being, Lu forwarded a notice to Chen that stated: “in order to establish a smooth connection to the remote checkup identification renewal system every overseas service station has to grant access privileges to the 110 system,” according to the court document.
The number 110 is synonymous with police in China.
The notice instructed recipients to provide the service station IP address to a designated email address.
Xi Jinping’s Visit
Federal prosecutors said their investigation found Lu had a longstanding relationship of trust with Chinese authorities.
In 2015, during Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s trip to Washington, Lu, along with other local Chinese association leaders, dispatched members of their organizations to participate in counter-protests against public demonstrations by practitioners of Falun Gong. The faith group, persecuted in China since 1999, was attempting to protest the regime’s ongoing suppression.
The court document included a photo showing Lu holding a plaque with a Chinese police official celebrating his work “in ensuring that members of the Falun Gong religion did not disturb President Xi’s visit.”
Lu also acknowledged an affiliation with a former director of the 610 Office, a Gestapo-like agency created in 1999 specifically for persecution tasks. He had brought the official to his hometown in China for a tour, court documents show.
Another New York resident who appears to be a member of the American ChangLe Association, together with Lu, has been receiving tasks from Chinese officials to identify the Chinese regime’s targets since at least 2018, according to the filings.
The former in 2018 requested help from Lu to try to deport a Chinese dissident and green card holder from the United States back to China.
The dissident told the FBI that they had experienced threats of violence that same year and that their family had been harassed in China since they arrived in the United States.
The co-conspirator also asked Lu to help find a Chinese national who had lived in Manhattan, as well as the person’s close associates.
In doing so, the co-conspirator shared the victim’s name, address as of 2016, birthdate, and a photo of the person in a public park, stating they needed the victim’s information in relation to a lawsuit, the court document said.
The FBI raided the secret police station in October 2022 and seized the phones of the two men, upon which the agents noted that they had deleted conversations with the Chinese police official, officials said in the complaint.
Beijing refuted Chen’s guilty plea.
“The so-called secret police stations do not exist,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said in a press briefing on Dec. 19.
U.S. Attorney Breon Peace for the Eastern District of New York said the prosecution was part of their efforts to protect vulnerable people who “come to this country to escape the repressive activities of authoritarian regimes.”
Countering malign activities of foreign states that violate U.S. sovereignty by targeting local diaspora communities is a priority of his office, he said.
Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s national security division called Chen’s effort in operating the secret outpost “brazen.”
The Department of Justice will “pursue anyone who attempts to aid the PRC’s efforts to extend their repressive reach into the United States,” he said, using the acronym for the People’s Republic of China.
Robert Wells, executive assistant director of the FBI’s national security branch, said Chen’s admission of guilt was “a stark reminder of the insidious efforts taken by the PRC government to threaten, harass, and intimidate those who speak against their communist party.”
“These blatant violations will not be tolerated on U.S. soil,” Wells said.
END
CHINA
China’s economy is now imploding!
Trump Effect? China’s 1Y Yield Crashes Below 1% For First Time Since GFC
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 03:00 PM
For the first time since the Great Financial Crisis (2008/9), short-dated Chinese bond yields have plunged back below 1%. In fact they are now at record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
As we head into the end of the year, impatient investors are left waiting for a real plan to underwrite consumption (as yields melt inexorably lower), and capital flight accelerates (spurred by concerns about yuan weakness). China suffered a record fund exit last month under the category of securities investment, according to official data released this week.
The drop in one-year yields reflects “prevailing expectations for PBOC’s strong easing next year amid the moderately loose policy and the shortage of high quality fixed-income assets,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong.
“Such developments could intensify concerns over US-China monetary policy divergence, and reinforce yuan depreciation pressure.”
Demand for shorter-maturity debt is also rising after the central bank pushed back against the bond-buying frenzy, prompting traders to shift away from longer-dated securities that are more exposed to the risk of intervention.
Shorter-dated bonds may be benefiting from several factors, including ample liquidity and the central bank’s operation of “buying short-term government bonds and selling some longer-dated notes,” said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
While the PBOC’s operations may have contributed to the front-end rally, the slide in yields “looks quite extreme,” said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
That’s because yields have fallen below the level of about 1.1% paid by banks for deposits that are often used to buy bonds, he said.
However, as Bloomberg reports, some analysts at least are warning the bond rally may be nearing its end.
A pickup in economic growth, along with a shift in consumer savings behavior and a more cautious-than-expected PBOC policy, may turn the bond bull run into a rout next year, said Adam Wolfe, an emerging markets economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London.
“China’s bond market likely overstates the easing that’s expected.”
The decline in yields is spurring debate about whether China’s economy is heading toward a recession… especially if Trump’s tariff threats become real and not just a negotiating tactic.
There’s some speculation interest rates may fall to zero if government efforts to bolster consumption and property demand continue to fall short.
The nation’s longer-maturity yields dropped below their Japanese counterparts last month in a sign investors are positioning for so-called Japanification of the world’s second-biggest economy.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
AUSTRIA
Austria starts its deportation of Syrians inside Austria
(ReMix)
Austria Kickstarts Deportation Process As Syrians Receive Letters Questioning Their Right To Stay
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
The Austrian government is understood to have initiated a process to review the asylum status of Syrians following the fall of the Assad regime, a move that could impact up to 40,000 people.
As reported by the Exxpress news outlet, the Federal Office for Asylum and Immigration (BFA) has sent letters to Syrians who have been in Austria for less than five years, questioning their continued need for protection.
The letters, citing the “changed circumstances” in Syria, state that recipients no longer need to fear political persecution. Those affected have been asked to attend appointments where they must provide further justification for their asylum claims, including evidence of integration such as employment, children enrolled in school, or other contributions to Austrian society.
BFA Director Gernot Maier clarified that asylum protection can generally be revoked within five years if the original reasons for granting it have fundamentally changed. “As soon as a well-founded basis for the decision is available, the decision in these cases is made immediately,” the letter from the BFA stated.
Chancellor Karl Nehammer instructed Interior Minister Gerhard Karner to suspend all ongoing Syrian asylum applications and review existing cases, but Maier acknowledged the “very volatile situation” in Syria, which currently prevents any definitive decisions on deportations.
However, it appears that Vienna is preparing the groundwork to expedite repatriations once the political landscape in Syria becomes clearer.
The Syrian community in Austria, numbering over 95,000 as of early 2024, is predominantly concentrated in Vienna and represents the eighth-largest foreign group in the country.
Austrian newspaper Heute reported up to 30,000 Syrians took to the streets in Vienna after the fall of the deposed former Syrian president to celebrate his demise at the hands of Islamist rebels, though police figures placed the number at 12,000.
FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl welcomed the government’s actions, claiming the departure of Assad eliminated the need for Syrians to remain in Austria. In a social media post, Kickl declared, “Your homeland needs you now,” and argued that the return of Syrians would provide “significant relief” to Austria’s social system. He also referenced Syrian migrants’ overrepresentation in criminal statistics, adding, “Even one or two knife specialists will disappear from Austria.”
The debate has reignited tensions over migration policy in Austria and across Europe, where leaders in several countries are calling for Syrians to return home. Austrian officials have floated the idea of offering €1,000 payments and assistance with travel and documentation for voluntary returns. However, those without leave to remain or with criminal convictions face forced deportation.
END
UK
This is stupid!
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
British Defense Minister Says UK Forces Could Be Sent To Ukraine For Training
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
British Defense Minister John Healey has suggested that the UK could send troops to Ukraine for a training mission. During a visit to Ukraine, Healey told The Times that the UK would work to improve its training of Ukrainian troops and wouldn’t rule out sending trainers to Ukraine.
“We [need to] make it easier to the Ukrainians to access and we [need to] work with the Ukrainians to help them motivate and mobilize more recruits,” Healey said.
When asked if that could involve sending troops to Ukraine, Healey said, “We will look wherever we can to respond to what the Ukrainians want. They are the ones fighting.”
Russia has repeatedly warned against Western countries sending troops to Ukraine for training purposes, saying any NATO soldiers would be legitimate targets of the Russian military.
According to the The Times, which accompanied Healey on the trip, the defense chief is actually calling for escalation at moment other European leaders are urging caution:
En route to Kyiv, he said now was “one of the most critical periods of the war”, adding: “The year may be ending, but the war is not. This is the time to step up further in Ukraine on every front.”
Leaks have revealed that British soldiers have been on the ground in Ukraine throughout the war, but they have been unofficial, covert deployments.
Earlier this year, a German military leak revealed that British soldiers are in Ukraine helping fire Storm Shadow missiles, which recently began striking targets inside the Russian mainland, marking a major escalation of the proxy war.
The Discord leaks revealed that as of March 2023, 97 NATO special operations soldiers were inside Ukraine, including 50 British soldiers. In April 2022, The Times reported that British Special Air Service soldiers were in Ukraine training Ukrainians on anti-tank weapons.
END
GERMANY
60 To 80 Injured After Car “Attack” On German Christmas Market, Saudi Driver Arrested
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 03:34 PM
Watch Live UK News
* * *
Update (1534ET):
Government spokesman Matthias Schuppe told German media outlet WELT that the car-ramming incident at a Christmas market in Magdeburg “was an attack.” City spokesman Michael Reif stated that initial reports suggested it was an “attack on the Christmas market.”
WELT reported that the suspected perpetrator is in police custody. Security sources told the outlet that the male driver is of Saudi Arabian origin and was born in 1974.
Elon Musk called for the resignation of Chancellor Olaf Scholz: “Scholz should resign immediately. Incompetent fool.”
* * *
Update (1456ET):
AFP News reports that 60 to 80 people were injured when a car rammed through a Christmas market in Germany. There is no official word regarding fatalities.
* * *
Update (1440ET):
There are a lot of casualty numbers being thrown out on X.
According to German news outlet MDR News:
“At least one person is dead and several people are injured. A large number of rescue workers are deployed. The suspected driver of the car has been arrested. An overview of the latest developments.”
Overview of the Christmas market:
Shocking video…
Panic erupted at a popular Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, on Friday evening after a vehicle plowed through the market. Details remain scant, but such incidents have become all too familiar around Christian holidays, often involving vehicle or knife attacks.
“A state of emergency currently prevails at the Magdeburg Christmas market. According to eyewitnesses, numerous people fled the market area in panic. A vehicle is said to have driven into the crowd,” Epoch Times Deutsche reported.
Unverified footage on X published moments ago shows what appears to be a number of causalities…
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
END
ISRAEL///USA/YEMEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
end
ISRAEL//HAMAS/
we should have a hostage deal shortly
(JerusalemPost)
Blinken: Hamas realizes ‘cavalry not coming,’ should agree to a ceasefire and ‘do it now’
If Hamas truly cares about the Palestinian people, they will “they will say yes and do it now,” Blinken said.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 20, 2024 04:56Updated: DECEMBER 20, 2024 07:42
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas “logically” could happen in a Thursday interview with Bloomberg.
“I say that with all of the caution that comes with that statement because we’ve been very close before,” he told The Big Take on Thursday.
“But what’s changed is this: Hamas knows that the cavalry is not coming to the rescue,” Blinken continued. “For months and months, It hoped it would get a wider war with Hezbollah, with Iran, with Iranian-aligned groups, coming in and creating more problems from Israel on more fronts and helping Hamas endure.”
“We now know that that is not happening, they know it’s not happening, because of the very important work that was done with us and with others dealing with the unprecedented Iranian attacks on Israel, dealing with Hezbollah, so I think that’s concentrated minds among Hamas on the need to complete this deal,” the secretary of state added.
Blinken noted the difficulty in high-level negotiations and said that the deal “can still move in the other direction” but noted the efforts the US had taken to achieve these matters.
Will they say yes?
“The fundamental question right now is ‘Is Hamas finally prepared to say yes?'” Blinken told The Big Take. “If it does, we get the hostages back. We get a ceasefire. We get an immediate, dramatic improvement in the lives of Palestinian children, women, and men who’ve been caught in this horrible crossfire since October 7 of Hamas’s making.
“If they really purport to care about the Palestinian people, they will say yes and do it now.”
When asked about his regrets regarding humanitarian aid to Gaza, the chief diplomat said that the US had attempted to do several things daily since the onset of the Israel-Hamas war.
“First, to stand resolute with Israel to try to make sure that October 7 would never happen again,” he noted. “Second, to prevent this war from going wider, because if that happened, if other fronts opened up – whether it was with Iran, whether it was with Hezbollah, these other groups – more death, more destruction, and it would probably prolong what was going on in Gaza. Three, to do whatever we could to make sure that people in Gaza were getting the assistance they need, were getting the protections they need.
Blinken noted a “noticeable improvement” in aid, “but we’ve seen that before, and then we’ve seen it fall off.”
He noted the “unique” environment of Gaza because they are “trapped” there and said that Israel still had a responsibility to assist and protect those who need it.
“In most other conflicts, people – they can become refugees,” Blinken noted. “That’s not a good thing, but it’s better than being caught in the middle of a hot war. And also, you have an enemy in the case of Hamas that’s fully enmeshed with the civilian population, living in and under buildings – apartment buildings, schools, mosques, hospitals.”
“The best way to finally deal with the needs of the people would be to end the conflict, would be to get the ceasefire, to get the hostages home,” he said. ” We’ve been working very hard to make sure that as best we can, we actually start to implement plans for a better future for the region, or if we don’t have time to fully do that, to be able to hand them off – not just getting the hostage and ceasefire deal, but having a clear plan for what follows,a day-after plan for Gaza so that there’s no vacuum that Hamas can refill.”
Blinken claimed that the Biden administration had done immense work to continue the Abraham Accords and wanted to see normalization between Isarel and Saudi Arabia next. The work is reportedly “ready to be handed over to the new administration, and hopefully, they’ll carry the ball forward.”
END
(JerusalemPost)
Defense Minister Katz not present at IDF military HQ during Yemen strike – report
Katz arrived at the premises at 9:30 p.m., approved the operation, and left, according to the reports.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 19, 2024 22:16Updated: DECEMBER 20, 2024 04:31
Defense Minister Israel Katz was not present at the operation room in the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv during the strike carried out by Israel Air Force jets on Houthi terror targets in Yemen in the early hours of Thursday, Israel’s public broadcaster KAN News reported later in the evening.
Katz arrived at the premises at 9:30 p.m., approved the operation, and left, according to the reports.
Kan cited sources present at the headquarters as saying they had expected the minister to remain on-site during the strike since he himself had dubbed it as “striking strategic targets.”
According to Kan, the minister’s office claimed he had to leave for discussions he held at the Knesset.
Addressing the strike, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “They learn and will learn the hard way that whoever harms Israel pays for it a heavy price.”
IAF strikes Houthi terror targets in Yemen
Early Thursday morning, Israel Air Force jets struck targets belonging to the Houthis in Yemen, which were utilized for military purposes, such as the smuggling of Iranian weapons.
The IAF also targeted energy infrastructure in Sana’a along with various ports.
The military noted that jets flew 2,000 kilometers and used over 60 bombs to strike Houthi targets, which included oil and fuel tanks, eight tugboats, and two power plants.
Source told The Jerusalem Post that the US had been notified of Israel’s intent to carry out the attacks.
According to the IDF, the Houthis have fired over 200 ballistic missiles and over 170 drones at Israel, with most being shot down by the US or Israel but 22 having penetrated Israel.
end
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
Israel will go after these guys exactly what they did to Hezbollah leaders
(JerusalemPost)
The unique brutality of Yemen’s Houthi intelligence services – exclusive
The report names some of the top Yemen Houthis intelligence officials which could also lead to new sanctions against some of those individuals.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 19, 2024 16:56Updated: DECEMBER 19, 2024 20:46
The Counter Extremism Project (CEP) on Thursday published a report delving into the unique brutality of the Yemen Houthi intelligence services.
The report, which The Jerusalem Post exclusively obtaining a copy of the report prior to its publication, names some of the top Yemen Houthis intelligence officials which could also lead to new sanctions against some of those individuals.
Also, the report uncovers how the Yemen Houthis have “laundered” some of their officials into their Foreign Ministry in order to continue to sabotage and siphon off humanitarian aid after global powers started to notice the intelligence ministry was undertaking such illegal activities.
It is authored by Ari Heistein, an independent security consultant with a foreword by Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor, Counter Extremism Project and UK Ambassador to Yemen (2015-17).
The Houthi regime occupies Sanaa, a large part of Yemen, including most of the Red Sea coast, which also covers around two-thirds of the country’s population, though the globally recognized Yemen government still controls more of Yemen’s territory.
Fitton-Brown said that he “had prolonged, intensive exposure to the Houthis in the context of successive rounds of Yemeni peace talks during that period,” saying that he “became familiar with the virulent and somewhat bizarre nature of the group.”
He noted that, “they chew the qat plant, which adds a narcotic high to their violent and extreme ideology and character.”
Fitton-Brown said the new report is groundbreaking because “it shines a light into the darkest corner of the Houthi apparatus of oppression – their Security and Intelligence Service (SIS), which secretly and semi-secretly manages some of the Houthis’ most sensitive and egregious activities.”
“It is involved in radicalization of minors, in a country where the use of child soldiers is commonplace. It smuggles arms, recruits spies and assassins, and conducts liaison with terrorist groups,” wrote Fitton-Brown.
Moreover, he wrote, “It is directly involved in appalling human rights abuses, including against aid delivery personnel in Yemen – and it has played a leading role in the Houthi diversion of humanitarian assistance that CEP has highlighted.”
“It is of particular value that Ari has named names in this report. Most SIS officials, below the highest level, would probably prefer not to have their names in lights. They will worry about coming to the attention of foreign authorities when they travel. And it is likely that Ari’s information will be used by international sanctions authorities, who may decide to sanction more Houthis in view of the group’s many abuses. Prominent members of SIS, both at the national and provincial level, are strong candidates for targeting,” said Fitton-Brown.
Moreover, he stated, “The value of Ari’s research is difficult to overstate, at a time when the world has been taken by surprise by the Houthi assault on freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, damaging global trade, impacting world prices and decimating the Suez Canal revenues that are crucial to the Egyptian economy.”
“They have also made themselves a cause célèbre amongst the type of Westerners who habitually side with Middle Eastern extremists against their own governments and against Israel,” he said.
Houthi aid diversion
As noted in a previous CEP report on Houthi aid diversion, the report said that, “SIS served as the enforcement arm for the Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and International Cooperation (SCMCHA).”
“Until recently, SCMCHA was tasked with interfacing with humanitarian organizations and overseeing their work in Yemen. However, the body was disbanded on 9 October 2024 and its responsibilities were transferred to the Houthis’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MLSA),” said the report.
Next, the report stated that, “The disintegration of SCMCHA may have resulted from growing international pressure on humanitarian aid organizations to cease cooperation with the Houthi agency known for disruption and diversion of aid.”
Further, the report noted, “the problem of Houthi aid diversion in Yemen was ongoing for nearly a decade prior to SCMCHA’s termination, the recent Houthi military campaign against Israel and the group’s sustained attacks on international shipping drew additional attention to that problem.”
One name that the report highlights is that of Abdulhakim al-Khaywani, a longtime Houthi loyalist who assumed his role as chief of SIS in 2019 after serving as deputy interior minister. It said that, “Al-Khaywani took on the leadership of SIS with great zeal, as even during his tenure as deputy at MOI he sought to aggressively curtail citizens’ rights.”
Next, the report said that al-Khaywani’s deputy is Abdulqader al-Shami, one of the few senior officials who successfully pivoted from the Saleh regime to the Houthis and continued to serve in senior posts following the collapse of the Saleh-Houthi alliance in 2017. The report noted that there are sources which say he has connections with al-Qaeda and that he is one of the focal points of a Houthi-al-Qaeda link, which the UN has described in its official reports.
Undersecretary of SIS Major General Mohammed al-Washli reportedly oversaw the forced disappearance of two elderly educators, Sabri al-Hakimi and Mujib al-Mikhlafi, who were detained by SIS in October 2023. According to the report, the two were later found with signs of torture on their bodies. Also, the report said that al-Hakimi died in custody and that his body was released under condition that it be buried quickly with no forensic review.
Fitton-Brown told The Jerusalem Post that to end the Yemen Houthi threat to world trade, the limited attacks from the US and Israel to date probably would be insufficient.
Rather, he said the closest any party came to containing the Houthis were the Saudis in the late 2010s, but that the West had blocked them from finishing the job due to concerns that Saudi attacks would prevent humanitarian aid and collateral civilian harm from indiscriminate Saudi air strikes.
He said that if the world wants to stop this issue it might need, “to get the Saudis to finish the job with the Houthis.”The former UK ambassador said that this would require the West switching to being in favor of Saudi intervention despite its previous record blocking Saudi intervention.
Further, he said that Saudi intervention might get pushed forward “if the Iranians are foolish enough to escalate” and if Iran attacked the Saudis or if there were other destabilizing moves between Israel and Iran, forcing Riyadh to take a clearer and more interventionist stance.
end
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
TIMES OF ISRAEL
no question about it: it is Israel that knocked out their ports and not the USA
(JerusalemPost)
After Yemen strikes, Netanyahu says Israel hitting Houthis on behalf of ‘entire world’
Prime minister says group is last Iranian proxy still standing; Katz warns rebels ‘the long arm of Israel will reach you’
By Lazar Berman Follow
and Emanuel Fabian Follow
19 December 2024, 5:32 pm
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a power station in the Houthi-run Yemeni capital Sanaa on December 19, 2024. (Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP)
Hours after the Israel Defense Forces carried out intense airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel’s operations are protecting not just itself from the Iran-backed rebel group but the entire world.
“They are not only attacking us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “They are attacking the entire world. They are attacking international shipping and trade routes.”
Dozens of planes struck Houthi targets along Yemen’s western coast and, for the first time, in the rebel-held capital Sana’a, in the early hours of Thursday morning.
“When Israel acts against the Houthis, it acts for the entire international community,” Netanyahu said, adding that the US and many others “understand this well.”
He suggested that the rebel group was among the last Iranian proxies still active “after Hamas, Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria.”
The Houthis, he said, “are learning and they will learn the hard way that anyone who attacks Israel pays a very heavy price.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks after Israel carried out airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on December 19, 2024 (Screenshot/GPO)
Fourteen fighter jets, alongside refuelers and spy planes, flew some 2,000 kilometers in the early hours of Thursday morning and dropped over 60 munitions on Houthi “military targets,” the IDF said.
Israeli military sources said the strikes in Yemen were aimed at paralyzing all three ports used by the Iran-backed group.
The targets included fuel and oil depots, two power stations, and eight tugboats used at the Houthi-controlled ports.
All of the tugboats used to bring ships into ports were struck in the Israeli attack, as were power stations. A previous attack on the Hodeida port targeted cranes used to unload shipments.
Israel now believes that all activity at the ports controlled by the Houthis is paralyzed, sources said Thursday.
Yemeni firefighters douse oil tanks with water at a power station that was hit in an Israeli airstrike in the Houthi-run capital Sanaa on December 19, 2024. (Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP)
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari confirmed that among the targets hit in the “precise strikes” were “ports and energy infrastructure,” which he accused the Houthis of harnessing for “their military actions,” including missile and drone launches against Israel and attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
The military, which released videos of the strikes and the aerial refueling amid the operation, called the destruction of the targets a major blow to the military operations of the Houthis.
Footage released by the IDF shows Israeli airstrikes in Yemen and aerial refueling operations, early December 19, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Thursday in a statement that he was “warning the heads of the Houthi terror group: The long arm of Israel will reach you. Whoever lifts a hand against the State of Israel will have it severed. Whoever harms us will be harmed many times over.”
Katz said that Jerusalem “will not accept firing of missiles at Israel, nor harm to trade routes.”
Houthi rebels have repeatedly fired drones and missiles toward Israel, with most being shot down but some managing to reach the country and cause death and destruction. Thursday’s strikes marked Israel’s third counterattack on areas in Yemen held by the rebel group.
The Israeli Air Force had been preparing for the strike for several weeks, military sources said, and the planes were already on their way to Yemen when the Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Israel shortly before 3 a.m. Thursday morning.
The projectile was partially intercepted outside Israeli airspace by the long-range Arrow air defense system. However, the warhead didn’t explode in the air and crashed into an empty school building in the city of Ramat Gan, causing severe damage but no injuries.
Workers walk through the rubble of a destroyed school building in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, on December 19, 2024, after the campus was hit by a Houthi missile fired from Yemen. (Jack Guez/AFP)
The Houthis have launched more than 200 missiles and 170 drones at Israel in the past year. According to the IDF, the vast majority did not reach Israel or were intercepted by the military and Israeli allies in the region.
The group has also carried out repeated missiles and drone attacks on some 100 merchant vessels attempting to traverse the Red Sea, forcing many carriers to avoid the key waterway and hamstringing global shipping.
The Houthis began their attacks following Hamas’s October 7 massacre in Israel, seeking to add pressure on Israel, along with other Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah.
For months, Israel argued that others in the international community should bear the responsibility of dealing with the Houthi threat, referring to it as a global problem — a position endorsed by Washington, which has also launched strikes on the Houthis.
On Monday, the US military’s Central Command said it hit “a key command-and-control facility” operated by the Houthis in Sana’a, later identified as the al-Ardi complex once home to the government’s defense ministry.
END
ISRAEL //WEST BANK
Probably the PA crackdown is a little late but the IDF is managing intifada levels better.
(JerusalemPost)
IDF managing Second Intifada-levels of West Bank terror better despite fewer soldiers
Is PA crackdown on terror too little, too late; Jewish extremist violence still high; confronting the Iranian smuggling threat from Jordan
By YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 19, 2024 18:01Updated: DECEMBER 19, 2024 20:57
Palestinian terror from the West Bank is at lower levels than it was during the Second Intifada despite the IDF having much smaller forces there and an environment of a continuous regional war, the IDF said on Thursday.
During the Second Intifada, the IDF Central Command had several full size divisions to try to end years of terror, whereas currently there are only 19 battalions in the West Bank.
Divisions often incorporate between 15-25 battalions, such that the current forces are much smaller than what the IDF Central Command had at its disposal during those years.
At the height of 2022-2024 during the increased terror wave and current war, there were up to 30 battalions in the West Bank. Prior to the 2022 terror waves, there were around 11 battalions.
Also, while all IDF soldiers are a significant part of the military, many of the units in the West Bank currently are from less elite units than what was available to IDF Central Command during the Second Intifada.
While the total number of terror incidents for the current war and the Second Intifada period were comparable, many more Israeli civilians were killed by West Bank terror during that earlier period. Around 450 Israelis were killed during a comparable Second Intifada period whereas 2024 saw around 40 killed Israelis – very high for the last decade, but much lower than the Second Intifada.
All of this comes in the context that the IDF has viewed the West Bank terror threat as at most the third most threatening front, after Gaza and Lebanon, with it sometimes falling to fourth behind Iran, Syria, or others.
In addition, although terror levels are far above where they were in 2021 and the years immediately prior, the IDF said that there is a downward trend compared to most of the rest of the war and also that public riots are extremely rare even compared to those earlier years.
Public riots
Rather, the IDF said that in prior years, public riots were accepted by the military as a standard way of life which were unavoidable and at most could be managed and prevented from getting too large.
According to the IDF, the stark reduction in public riots was achieved without changing military rules of engagement, but just by a general policy of more regular and aggressive raids against those provoking those riots.
Also, the IDF said that six additional battalions that it received over time to guard the “border” areas between Israel and the Palestinians mostly eliminated what had been a phenomenon of tens of thousands of Palestinians crossing illegally into Israel on a regular basis.
IDF sources said that a recent meeting with Israeli Judea and Samaria regional council leaders led to overall positive feedback about the relative level of security their residents feel, given the still unstable region.
Despite those positive aspects, terror in 2024 is still far above pre-2022 levels.
2024 has seen 253 Palestinian terror incidents, which is lower than the 847 spike in 2023 and also lower than the 2022 waves of terror spike of 342, but still far above the earlier years of 91 in 2021, 50 in 2020, and 48 in 2019.
The numbers are better for lower grade Palestinian violence, such as lower grade rock throwing with 1,188 incidents in 2024, which is lower than all of the years of 2019-2023, with a high during those years of 8,633 incidents and a low of 1,350 incidents.
Around 800 Palestinians have been killed by the IDF since the start of the current war with the military saying that 96% were fighters or terrorists, and around 30 civilians who were mistakenly caught in the crossfire.
By year, the IDF said it has killed 479 Palestinian terrorists in 2024, 504 in 2023, 155 in 2022, 77 in 2021, 20 in 2020 and 27 in 2019.
Comparatively, 37 Israelis were killed by Palestinian terrorists in 2024, 41 in 2023, 32, in 2022, and only between two to five per year between 2019-2021.
Around 6,000 Palestinian terror suspects have been arrested since the start of the war, with 2,350 connected to Hamas. 2,400 of them have had indictments filed against them.
3,700 Palestinians are being held in administrative detention, a number dwarfing the number of Palestinians held during the Second Intifada by around three times, when the numbers only broke the 1,000 level.
Even during the later years of the Second Intifada and during the Knife Intifada of 2015-2016, the number of administrative detainees was more in the 700 range.
In quieter years over the last two decades, the numbers were usually down closer to 200-300 at a time.
Another major change has been the number of air strikes, which is now at 100 for the current war. In contrast, there were essentially no air strikes in the West Bank from 2005-2023.
Palestinian Authority
IDF sources complimented the Palestinian Authority for its latest operation this week in the Jenin refugee camp against other Palestinian terror and lawless groups.
However, the same sources noted that the PA has only killed three and arrested only a few dozen Palestinians in around over a week and a half.
This means, said IDF sources, that the PA is likely moving too slowly and allowing certain pockets of terror to remain concealed or to escape to other areas.
Also, while the PA has invested around 300 of its forces in getting Jenin under control, this leaves it exposed in other areas.
The IDF said it has paved the way for the PA to receive upgraded weapons and force protection to fight against Palestinian terrorists in Jenin, though with some limits so as not to endanger IDF troops in the future should some of the PA forces at some point change sides.
Finally, IDF sources hope the PA will show a more sustained determination this time against lawlessness in Jenin, but have doubts whether the PA security forces, especially at the rank and file level, will have staying power.
IDF sources noted that only after Jenin terror groups stole three PA vehicles and attacked a PA police station with a bomb, did the PA finally take more serious action to crack down on them.
Iran smuggling weapons into West Bank via Jordan
The IDF is concerned about ongoing Iranian efforts to incite West Bank Palestinians into a new terror wave, including with deadlier and higher quality weapons smuggled in from Jordan, and especially due to Tehran’s losing of proxy power in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
Part of the IDF’s conceptual shift to cope with the issue is viewing the Jordanian border not as a law enforcement standard border issue, but as a full-fledged military front.
This is a confusing conceptual framework given that Jordan is an ally and at peace with Israel, but the IDF views this shift as necessary because the Jordanians are not capable of fully blocking Iran’s clever smuggling attempts.
The IDF is also trying to avoid either a “Lebonization” or further “Gazaization” of West Bank terror. The idea is to be active enough against Palestinian West Bank terror, such that groups will neither be able to use powerful weapons like Hezbollah in Lebanon, nor will they be able to organize into larger military operating units, like Hamas in Gaza.
Despite some successes in this respect, the IDF is concerned at the volume of improvised explosives constantly flowing through the West Bank.
Jewish extremist violence against Palestinians
The view on Jewish extremist violence against Palestinians is very mixed.
In 2024, there have been 663 incidents, in 2023 there were 1,045, and in 2022 there were 947, seeming to show an improvement, but 663 is still far above prior years when there were 446 in 2021, 353 in 2020, and 339 in 2019.
The IDF said that Jewish extremist violence against Palestinians had increased, corresponding to increased Palestinian terror, but it does not really have an answer yet for bringing down the levels to pre-2022 levels.
Regarding Defense Minister Israel Katz’s recent controversial decision to block any new administrative detention orders against even the worst Jewish extremists, the IDF said that IDF Central Commander Avi Bluth still has the power to issue restraining orders to keep persons out of the West Bank for six months at a time.
According to IDF sources, this can achieve the same goal by keeping such extremists away from being able to harm Palestinians or otherwise cause trouble.
Despite this reassurance, the unanimous defense establishment view was that canceling such administrative detention orders would undermine the ability to contain Jewish extremist violence.
end
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
(times of Israel)
Six Palestinians said killed in IDF drone strike, raid in West Bank
IDF investigating reports that an 80-year-old woman was killed during clashes in Nablus; top terror operative killed in Tulkarem strike
By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
ToI Staff and Agencies19 December 2024, 6:19 pm
Israeli security forces raid Balata refugee camp east of Nablus in the West Bank. December 19, 2024. (Nasser Ishtayeh/Flash90)
At least six Palestinians were killed and several more injured in raids by Israeli forces in the West Bank, authorities said Thursday, as the military sought to clamp down on rising terror activity across the territory.
At least one civilian, an 80-year-old woman, was among those killed, the Palestinian Authority said.
In Tulkarem, a drone strike killed four Palestinian gunmen, according to the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet. Another three Palestinians were seriously injured, according to the PA health ministry.
During the Tulkarem raid, troops used bulldozers to destroy infrastructure and seal off entrances to the city, according to the Turkish Anadolu news agency.
The IDF and Shin Bet said later Thursday that the drone strike had killed a senior terror operative who was being financed by Iran, alongside three other Palestinian gunmen.
According to the Shin Bet, the target of the strike was Tariq al-Doush, who it identified as one of the commanders of a terror network in Tulkarem.
The Shin Bet said that al-Doush worked to recruit operatives in the past year to carry out attacks, who would be armed with Iranian financing via operatives in Lebanon.
The operatives in Lebanon who were in contact with al-Doush are members of the Makdah family, who the Shin Bet has accused in the past of working with the IRGC to advance terror attacks in the West Bank.
The network that al-Doush headed was involved in several shooting attacks against IDF troops, checkpoints, and Israeli towns near the West Bank security barrier, the agency said, adding that the network planned to carry out attacks in Israel as well.
Alongside al-Doush, three other gunmen were killed, including Dosem al-Awfi, who the Shin Bet said was a prominent member of the Tulkarem terror network.
Elsewhere in the West Bank on Thursday, Palestinian officials charged that Israeli forces had killed two people, one of them an 80-year-old woman, and injured several others during a raid near Nablus.
The military said that it was looking into the reported deaths, without providing additional information.
The PA health ministry in Ramallah said Halima Abu Leil, 80, was fatally shot in the chest and leg during a raid in the Balata refugee camp near Nablus. The Palestinian Red Crescent confirmed her death after transporting her to the hospital.
A short while later, the ministry announced the death of a second Palestinian, a 25-year-old man.
Both the Hamas terror group and the Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, the armed wing of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party, claimed that the second person killed, Qusai Sarouji, was a fighter in their respective terror organizations.
At least four others were injured during the raid, it said, including two men aged 21 and 22, a 65-year-old man who suffered gunshot wounds, and another individual injured by bullet shrapnel.
The Red Crescent also accused Israeli forces of firing at its ambulances, “obstructing the delivery of humanitarian and medical services inside the camp.”
There was no immediate comment on the accusation by the IDF.
The army said Thursday it had operated in the West Bank to survey the homes of three terrorists responsible for a deadly terror attack earlier this year, ahead of their potential demolitions.
In August, 23-year-old Yonatan Deutsch was killed near the Mehola Junction on Route 90, the main north-south artery in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley. Hamas took responsibility for the attack.
“The mapping was carried out in preparation for examining the possibility of demolishing the terrorist’s house,” the army said.
Since October 7, troops have arrested some 6,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 2,350 affiliated with Hamas.
According to the PA health ministry, more than 716 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops or terrorists carrying out attacks.
During the same period, 42 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Another six members of the security forces were killed in clashes with terror operatives in the West Bank.
ISIS IN SYRIA/USA
US kills ISIS leader Abu Yusif in precision strike in Syria
The area where the strike happened was previously controlled by the Assad regime and Russia, according to CENTCOM.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 20, 2024 16:24Updated: DECEMBER 20, 2024 17:12
ISIS leader Abu Yusif was eliminated in a precision strike by the US Central Command forces on Thursday, CENTCOM announced Friday afternoon.
Another unnamed ISIS operative was also eliminated in the strike.
The area where the strike happened was previously controlled by the Assad regime and Russia, according to CENTCOM.
US official speaks out on the strike
“As stated before, the United States — working with allies and partners in the region — will not allow ISIS to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute,” said CENTCOM commander Michael Erik Kurilla.
“ISIS has the intent to break out of detention over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria,” he continued. “We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria.”
The report of Yusif’s elimination comes a few days after the US also eliminated 12 other ISIS terrorists in Syria via precision strikes, with CENTCOM saying that these strikes are to “”disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS, preventing the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek opportunities to reconstitute in central Syria.”
In early December, Syria’s former president Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by Syrian rebel forces after a presidency of 24 years.
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
(JERUSALEM POST)
IDF, Shin Bet eliminate Tulkarm terrorist network head in earlier drone strike
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 19, 2024 21:42
In a joint IDF and ISA operation earlier on Thursday, one of the heads of the Tulkarm terrorist network, Tarek Doush, was eliminated in a strike by an IDF aircraft, the military confirmed on Thursday evening.
Over the past year, Tarek recruited numerous terrorists, armed and funded by Iran and by Lebanese terror operatives with relations to the Maqdah family, to plan and execute terrorist attacks against Israelis.
The terrorist network led by Tarek carried out multiple shooting attacks against IDF soldiers, as well as shooting attacks against checkpoints and communities near the Judea and Samaria security fence in the area of Tulkarm. Additionally, the terrorist network planned to execute terrorist attacks in Israeli territory.
Along with Tarek, the terrorist Dossam Awfi, a significant military operative in the Tulkarm terrorist network, was also eliminated together with two additional terrorists.121:39
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Times of Israel
Arab diplomat says hostage talks progressing but deal likely still weeks away
Hebrew media reports are slightly more optimistic, citing Israeli officials who speculate an agreement is possible before the year ends and credit CIA chief for recent advances
By Jacob Magid Follow
and ToI StaffToday, 1:52 am
Protesters outside the IDF’s Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv call for the release of the hostages on Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File)
Mediators continue to make progress toward a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, but will likely need weeks — not just days — in order to finalize an agreement, an Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel on Thursday.
“The trajectory is good, but there are still major issues to be negotiated followed by difficult political decisions that both sides will need to make the diplomat said.
Hebrew media reporting appeared slightly more optimistic on Thursday, with claims from unnamed Israeli officials who maintained that a deal was possible before the end of December.
One of those officials told the Walla news site that talks in Qatar in recent days have been productive, but that gaps remain.
Channel 12 news reported that further progress had been made in the past day toward bridging gaps on some of the most controversial issues.
“We are in the final stages of reconciliation,” an Israeli official told the network, adding that the sides will know in the coming days whether there will be a deal or not.
CIA Director William Burns (C) departs after testifying before the US Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, March 11, 2024. (Mandel Ngan / AFP)
The Israeli official credited CIA Director Bill Burns for securing the latest compromises between the sides. Burns arrived in Qatar on Wednesday in order to advance the negotiations.
Meanwhile, the official in charge of hostage-related affairs at the Prime Minister’s Office, Yaron Cohen, sent a message to the families of captives on Thursday saying that the combination of recent developments in the region and American influence have created the conditions under which a deal can be reached.
Cohen cautioned the families against relying on media reports, urging them to reach out directly to the Prime Minister’s Office if they had any questions.
Also on Thursday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the Biden administration’s belief that a deal is possible due to what Washington believes is the recent isolation of Hamas and weakening of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
“The reality is we should logically be able to get this, and I say that with all the caution that comes with that statement because we’ve been very close before and we’ve had these ‘Lucy and the football’ moments where you’re just ready to kick the football and Lucy pulls it away,” he told Bloomberg.
The nature of the ceasefire deal is the main issue of contention in the talks, with Hamas demanding a permanent end to the fighting sparked by its October 2023 onslaught along with the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, while Israel is seeking a temporary pause during which some of the hostages would be released followed by a resumption of its fighting in order to finish dismantling the terror group’s military and governing capabilities.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, meets with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Doha, Qatar, October 24, 2024. (Nathan Howard/Pool Photo via AP)
Channel 12 reported on Wednesday that there are still disagreements on several key issues including the number and identity of the hostages to be freed; a mechanism for the return of displaced Palestinians to the north of the Gaza Strip; the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners to be released as part of the deal; and a mechanism for exiling the most dangerous of those prisoners to other countries.
Hamas officials also indicated Wednesday that there was progress in the talks.
The Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen news outlet in Lebanon quoted an unnamed senior Hamas official as saying that there has been considerable progress in the negotiations for a phased hostage release and ceasefire deal with Israel.
According to the official, Israel’s demand during the first stage of the deal is for the release of 34 hostages on humanitarian grounds — chiefly all remaining women and children, including female IDF soldiers, and the sick and elderly.
It was not immediately clear from the statements whether Hamas has agreed or would be able to release that number of hostages.
Channel 12 reported that Israel was now willing for the bodies of dead hostages to be included in the first round.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich came out on Wednesday against the potential ceasefire-hostage deal, calling it a “serious error.” He joins fellow far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir who has also come out fervently against the type of deal being discussed.
Despite the opposition from within Netanyahu’s coalition, successive polls have indicated that there is broad public support for a deal, even if it means ending the war.
END
SYRIA/USA
Syrian Leader With $10M Bounty On His Head Meets With Delegation From Country That Put The $10M Bounty On His Head
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 03:20 PM
On Friday for the first time top Biden administration envoys met with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani in Damascus. Ironically the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader, who has reverted to going by his birth name of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is wanted by the FBI for terrorism and still has a $10 million bounty on his head.
That didn’t stop Barbara A. Leaf, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and a Biden admin delegation from meeting with the HTS leader in Damascus, where they discussed sanctions, the thorny issue of the $10 million reward, and locating missing US citizens in Syria (specifically journalist Austin Tice).
Jolani is trying to present himself as a “moderate”. Perhaps this is why for one of the first times he allowed himself to be photographed alongside a woman without a head-covering.
He and HTS are trying to attract Western legitimacy and support, and so have pledged to uphold the rights of women and non-Muslim religious communities (such as Christians, Alawites, Druze, etc.)
In the aftermath of the Friday meeting a member of the US delegation called it “good and productive.” This marked the first trip to Damascus by State Department officials in over a decade.
American diplomats had long refused to meet with the now ousted President Bashar al-Assad, yet now they quickly flock to the Syrian capital to embrace someone who literally fought with ISIS a mere few years ago.
The US had shuttered its embassy in Damascus and relocated its diplomatic staff by 2012, in protest of the Assad ‘regime’. All the while US intelligence had ramped up its covert operations for regime change known as ‘Timber Sycamore’.
The NY Times had previously described of these efforts, “The shuttering of the C.I.A. program, one of the most expensive efforts to arm and train rebels since the agency’s program arming the mujahedeen in Afghanistan during the 1980s, has forced a reckoning over its successes and failures.”
Now, with apparently mission accomplished, and Assad in Moscow, the US is returning its diplomatic presence to Damascus, perhaps permanently.
For the Friday meeting between the US officials and Jolani, Leaf was “accompanied by former U.S. envoy to Syria Daniel Rubinstein who will stay in Syria as the top U.S. diplomat on the ground.” Clearly, Washington is now OK with Syria being run by an al-Qaeda faction, and as Israeli and Turkey divide up the territorial spoils in the south and north.
end
TURKEY/SYRIA PKK/ISIS
Erdogan is wrong PKK are not terrorists and they side with the USA. Erdogan is afraid that the PKK want a separate Kurdistan
(Reuters)
Turkey’s Erdogan says terrorist groups need to be eliminated for safe new Syria
By REUTERSDECEMBER 20, 2024 13:54
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said that Islamic State and Kurdish PKK operatives and related groups need to be eliminated for a safe and stable new Syria to be established.
Speaking to reporters on a return flight from a D-8 meeting in Egypt, Erdogan also told reporters that Turkey would support the new Syrian leadership in the fight against terrorist organizations.
He said he does not believe any power will continue to work with such groups in Syria anymore, in an apparent reference to the cooperation between the Kurdish YPG militia and the United States in northeastern Syria.
“Islamic State, the PKK, and its versions which threaten the survival of Syria need to be eradicated,” he said.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Putin ready to talk about peace
(zerohedge)
Putin Says ‘Ready’ To Meet Or Talk To Trump At Any Time
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 04:40 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin in fresh Thursday remarks has emphasized that he is ready for a direct conversation with US President-elect Donald Trump at any time and agrees to meet with him when the US side is ready.
“I am ready for this [conversation], of course, at any time. And I will also be ready for a meeting, if he wants it,” Putin said at Russia’s annual year-end Q&A press conference with the president. He gave this response to an American journalist when asked about a potential future meeting with Trump.
“First of all, I don’t know when we will meet with him. Because he doesn’t say anything about it. I haven’t talked to him at all for more than four years,” Putin followed with, acknowledging the unpredictability of the US side’s intentions.
The Kremlin has still taken a pessimistic view on the possibility of achieving peace in Ukraine anytime soon, given especially that Western long-range missiles are being used against Russian territory.
According to more of the latest context via TASS:
Earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow is ready for contacts with Washington to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, but has not yet received any serious proposals from Trump’s team. According to the diplomat, the Russian Foreign Ministry has recently regularly received many questions about whether Russia is ready to contact Trump and his team.
Trump’s pick for national security advisor, Mike Waltz, explained to CBS News at the start of this week, “What does success look like in line with our interests? How do we end the war? Who’s at the table? How do we drive, you know, all sides to the table, and what’s the framework for an agreement? Those are things that we’re thinking through with his fantastic team that he’s (Trump) assembling.”
He also said that the current Biden administration policy of escalation with no end in sight is a recipe for disaster which could turn the conflict into another “forever war”. He said that a “blank check… just isn’t a strategy.”
And yet it could be President Zelensky himself who stands in the way:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the prospect of freezing the conflict started by Moscow to facilitate negotiations to end hostilities, telling French daily Le Parisien that Donald Trump “knows about my desire not to rush things at the expense of Ukraine.”
Below is the key section of this latest Zelensky interview:
Zelensky told Le Parisien resolving the war was “not easy” and that Trump wanted a peace deal “quickly” but the Ukrainian leader said the Trump team did not yet have access to all the information from diplomatic and intelligence channels.
Zelensky said regardless of what world leaders want, “we are not just going to give in and give up our independence.”
“The danger would be to say—we freeze the war and we will come to an agreement with the Russians,” he added, noting that Putin “has killed many Ukrainians.”
Freezing the front lines is a central component of what has thus far been reported as ‘Trump’s peace plan’. Moscow hasn’t appeared too keen on it either, and it has less incentive to agree to this, given by all metrics it is winning on the ground in the Donbas.
Still, Trump has pushed forward with his promise to find a swift close to the war which has been raging for about three years. He’s vowing to push the warring sides to the negotiating table from his very first day in office.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia will surely return the favour and attack Kiev
(zerohedge)
More ATACMS, Storm Shadow Missiles Launched At Russia As Putin Threatens ‘Missile Duel’ With US
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 06:50 PM
The Kremlin on Thursday revealed that the day prior Ukraine’s military launched six US-made long-range ATACMs missiles and four British-made Storm Shadow missiles against Russian territory.
The projectiles targeted the southern Rostov region, with Russia’s military saying its anti-air defense systems were able to intercept all four ATACMS missiles and three of the four Storm Shadows.
The statement further vowed a harsh response to the attacks, given this is at least third of fourth major wave of long-range attacks. Western missiles have been used perhaps half a dozen times or more against Russian territory at this point, only a month after Washington initially gave Kiev permission.
The ATACMS and Storm Shadow assault on Wednesday was accompanied by other conventional weapons as well. In the overall attack some targets, including an oil refinery, were struck:
Ukraine struck Russian territory with at least 13 missiles and 84 drones, triggering a fire at an oil refinery in the southern Rostov region that burned for hours, Russian officials said on Thursday.
As Russia advances at the fastest pace since the start of the war in 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly tried to strike Russia’s oil infrastructure – which funds a significant chunk of the Russian war economy.
“The actions of the Kyiv regime, supported by its Western curators, will not go unanswered,” the Russian defense ministry said in follow-up.
This retaliation could involve more hypersonic ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine, a threat which has been sounded more frequently of late, specifically more debilitating attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid headed into the cold winter months.
On Thursday, during President Putin’s year-end Q&A session with journalists, Putin warned that more Oreshnik missiles could be used, emphasizing that there is no defense against them.
“There is no chance of shooting down these Oreshnik missiles. Well, if those Western experts you mentioned think they can be shot down, we propose they – and those in the West and the United States who pay them for their analysis – conduct some kind of technological experiment, a high-tech duel of the 21st century,” Putin explained to the press.
“Let them name some object, let’s say, in Kyiv, concentrate all their air defence and missile defence forces there, and we will hit it with Oreshnik and see what happens. We are ready for such an experiment. Is the other side ready?” he posed.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Reality in Kiev
Overnight there were strikes on Kiev–Luch Design Bureau and SBU operations center have been hit, but this is not what matters. This–does.
Депутаты Верховной рады Украины почти в полном составе пропустили заседание после ударов ВС России по пункту управления СБУ, сообщил нардеп Алексей Гончаренко (внесен в России в список террористов и экстремистов). По словам Гончаренко, на заседание явилось всего 10% депутатов, передает «Российская газета». «Из 450 мест в парламенте было занято только 45. Мощно», – с иронией написал Гончаренко в своем Telegram-канале.
Translation: Almost all of the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine missed the meeting after the Russian Armed Forces struck the SBU command post, said MP Oleksiy Goncharenko (included in the Russian list of terrorists and extremists). According to Goncharenko, only 10% of the deputies showed up for the meeting, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports. “Out of 450 seats in parliament, only 45 were occupied. Powerful,” Goncharenko wrote ironically on his Telegram channel.
This is how it is going to be now and each of them will learn the hard way that Russia changed the MO.
NATO military already knows this.
Before this is finished Ukraine will cease to exist. And the clown show that parades as government will tun to the West.
END
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Pandemic Coverup Intensifies: Scripps Institute’s Kristian Andersen Cannot Tell The Truth
24 – 08:05 PM
Authored by former lead Senate investigator Paul D. Thacker via The Disinformation Chronicle,
The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic released their final report earlier this month, concluding that the National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) Tony Fauci funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where a lab accident likely started the initial outbreak.
Multiple U.S. agencies aided by virologist sought to cover-up this evidence, the Select Subcommittee charged, and several people broke the law by misleading congressional staff including Peter Daszak of EcoHealth, who funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab; NIH employee David Morens who served as Tony Fauci’s advisor; and former New York Governor Cuomo who lied about nursing home fatalities in his state.
The Select Subcommittee’s report will likely serve as roadmap for incoming Trump officials seeking to clean up federal research. However, Scripps researcher Kristian Andersen sought to invert the report’s findings, posting a series of false allegations about the report’s conclusions on Bluesky a social media app popular with Democrats fleeing X. Andersen was previously caught misleading Congress by myself and Ryan Grim at The Intercept, and his latest actions pile on the evidence that the Scripps scientist cannot tell the truth and lacks even a mob lawyer’s fleeting interest in candor.
Follow the Documents
Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, emerged as a controversial researcher early in the pandemic, and has been one of the most outspoken cheerleaders for the theory that pandemic started with a natural spillover from an animal to humans outside of a lab. But emails released a year after the pandemic’s beginning showed that Andersen initially thought the virus had been genetically engineered. However, after a phone call with Fauci and another major virology funder, Jeremy Farrar, then with the Wellcome Trust, Andersen reversed course.
Along with other virologists funded by Fauci and Farrar, Andersen then published a March 2020 Nature Medicine paper called “Proximal Origins” which concluded a Wuhan lab accident was not “plausible.” The Nature Medicine paper thus diverted any blame from Fauci for possibly starting the pandemic, as he was funding that same lab in Wuhan. Emails later showed that Fauci and Farrar helped guide the Nature Medicine piece to publication, a fact which Andersen continues to deny.
Emails and other private messages released in the summer of 2023 by Congress also indicated that Andersen’s co-authors on the Nature Medicine paper may have put politics before science.
“[G]iven the shit show that would happen if anyone serious accused the Chinese of even accidental release, my feeling is we should say that given there is no evidence of a specifically engineered virus, we cannot possibly distinguish between natural evolution and escape so we are content with ascribing it to [a] natural process,” Andersen’s colleague, Dr. Andrew Rambaut, wrote to a group of virologists over Slack in February 2020.
“Yup, I totally agree that that’s a very reasonable conclusion. Although I hate when politics is injected into science – but it’s impossible not to, especially given the circumstances,” Andersen replied.
Andersen did not return a request to explain his false statements, nor provide an explanation for who paid his lawyer when he appeared before the Committee.
Follow My Lies on BlueSky
Continuing his political campaign to deny a possible lab accident, Andersen posted excerpts of the House final report on Bluesky. In particular, Andersen posted a screenshot of a memo found on page 20 of the Select Subcommittee report. “This memo proves that Dr. Fauci can’t possibly have orchestrated a cover-up,” Andersen wrote. Andersen then repeated the dishonest claim that the memo is proof that Fauci had no involvement in directing the Nature Medicine paper, despite emails to the contrary.
In a later Bluesky post, Andersen charges that these emails are “a conspiracy theory, to be clear.” But Andersen’s Bluesky posts omit one small detail about this memo found on page 20—the report’s next page, page 21.
On the following page of the report, investigators note that Andersen testified that Fauci had suggested that he write a peer-reviewed paper (this is the Nature Medicine, Proximal Origins paper) on the possibility of a lab accident at Wuhan. Page 21 also reveals that Andersen emailed to Nature that Fauci and others “prompted” the paper:
When Dr. Andersen presented a draft of Proximal Origin to Nature, he stated it was “prompted” by Dr. Fauci and later stated the goal of Proximal Origin was to “disprove the lab leak theory.”
Here’s the report’s page 21 that Andersen failed to post on Bluesky.
And here’s the email Andersen wrote to Nature Medicine, where he explained that the Nature Medicine Proximal Origins paper was “prompted by Jeremy Farrar, Tony Fauci, and Francis Collins.”
To be clear, nothing is stopping Andersen from lying to his followers on Bluesky. He can continue posting truncated portions of the report to falsely assert Fauci had no involvement in his Nature Medicine paper. Lying liars lie.
But Andersen also got caught lying to Congress, and that’s where he can run into legal peril. Unlike lying on Bluesky, lying liars can be prosecuted when they lie to Congress.
Will DOJ Prosecute Lying Liars?
To mediate the Select Subcommittee’s demand for answers and to protect him during a deposition and public hearing, Andersen hired criminal defense lawyer, John P. Rowley, a former federal prosecutor who defended Trump before the Department of Justice.
In testimony Andersen submitted for a July 2023 House hearing, he sought to dismiss the emails showing that NIH officials Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins helped to orchestrate his Nature Medicine Proximal Origins paper.
But after Nature Medicine accepted the paper in March 2020, Andersen sent Fauci and Collins the paper’s draft and a draft of the press release. Andersen then thanked them for “advice and leadership” on the matter. “Please let me know if you have any comments, suggestions, or questions about the paper or the press release,” Andersen wrote the two NIH officials who funded his research.
“Nice job on the paper,” Fauci replied.
But in his July 2023 testimony, Andersen alleged that Fauci had not provided “advice and leadership” on the paper. Instead, Andersend proclaimed some monumental difference between asking someone to comment or offer suggestions about a paper instead of on a paper.
“Note, that I say ‘about the paper’, not e.g., ‘on the paper,’” Andersen testified.
Andersen sought to clarify later in his testimony, “Sending a copy of a paper that has been accepted and is in ‘proof’ (i.e., at a stage where only changes directly requested by the journal can be introduced) is simply a professional courtesy.”
Emails impeach this portion of Andersen’s testimony, as Fauci was provided multiple drafts of the paper. A month before Andersen emailed Fauci and Collins the “proof” of the paper in March 2020, Jeremy Farrar forwarded Fauci a “rough first draft” from Andersen’s co-author Edward “Eddie” Holmes.
“Please treat in confidence—a very rough first draft from Eddie and team—they will send on the edited, cleaner version later,” Farrar emailed Fauci and Collins. The following day, Farrar emailed Fauci and Collins, “Tony and Francis, The revised draft from Eddie, copied here.”
Much of the structure and footnotes are the same of this “rough first draft” and some phrases appear verbatim in the article Nature Medicine later published. Here are a few passages for comparison.
If this is not enough, one more bit to chew on. Andersen stated in his July 2023 testimony that Fauci had received the final “proof” of the article as “simply a professional courtesy.” But we know this is not true. Some months after Andersen’s congressional testimony Fauci testified that he had been sent multiple drafts.
Here’s Fauci discussing Andersen’s Nature Medicine paper starting on day 2, page 71 of his sworn deposition:
Q As the minority said, we’ve talked to all the U.S.-based authors or those who are acknowledged on that paper, so I won’t go through all of the science in it, except for I want — you were sent drafts periodically?
A Right.
Q A couple. I think it was less than 10, more than 5, drafts —
A Right.
Fauci’s January 2024 deposition impeaches Andersen’s July 2023 statement before Congress.
But it doesn’t end there. After Andersen was caught lying in his July 2023 congressional testimony, The Intercept published an expose a few days after, noting Andersen had also lied to Congress about his NIH funding from Fauci.
During the 2023 hearing, The Intercept discovered, Andersen sought to distract Members of Congress about a serious conflict of interest. While writing the Nature Medicine paper, whose conclusions diverted any blame from Fauci for funding research in the Wuhan lab, Andersen was awaiting Fauci’s approval for a major grant.
Kristian Andersen of Scripps Research, who testified at the hearing along with Bob Garry of Tulane University, preempted the charge in his opening statement, telling the committee he had no live fundraising requests before Fauci’s agency at the time of the call. “There is no connection between the grant and the conclusions we reached about the origins of the pandemic. We applied for this grant in June 2019, and it was scored and reviewed by independent experts in November 2019,” Andersen testified. “Based on the actual timeline of this grant, it is not possible that the merit-based federal grant awarding process was influenced by a call in February, 2020.”
But Andersen’s testimony was false, The Intercept reported. While Andersen’s grant had been reviewed, it was still waiting for Fauci’s final approval and signature.
The grant wasn’t finalized until May 21, 2020. In other words, it was on Fauci’s desk at the time of the conference call. Andersen’s lab announced the funding in a press release in August 2020, nine months after he claimed it was already finalized. The press release describes it as a “new $8.9 million grant.”
In case you’re still not certain if Andersen is a liar, The Intercept posted a screenshot of Andersen’s grant, showing that Fauci had given final approval on May 21, 2020.
Congress is far from finished with addressing all the problems that happened during the pandemic. Just last week, the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs (HSGAC) sent letters to a dozen federal agencies, demanding they preserve documents pertaining to Covid’s origins.
More to come…
Subscribe to The Disinformation Chronicle here…
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
A Case of Incidental Giant Cell Myocarditis Presenting After COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination’; report the case of a 62-year-old woman with CHF symptoms after a recent coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)
vaccination, initially misdiagnosed as post-vaccine myocarditis. Rapid deterioration into cardiogenic shock resulted in endomyocardial biopsy; Malone Bourla al. mRNA vaccine is deadly!
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 19 |
Before the content of this stack, I must give praise to Mickey Z. for that photo with RFK Jr. Mid-December memes… – mickey z. says
Now to the research in question:
A Case of Incidental Giant Cell Myocarditis Presenting After COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination – PMC
‘Case
A 62-year-old woman presented to hospital with a 5-day history of exertional dyspnea and intermittent, sharp chest discomfort, 2 weeks after her third dose of the SPIKEVAX (Moderna, Cambridge, MA) COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. She endorsed paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea and orthopnea but no other systemic symptoms. She had no known medical or familial history, took no prescription medications, and denied use of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit substances.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Her vitals were remarkable for hypoxia requiring 6 L per minute of supplemental oxygen, tachycardia at 114 beats per minute, and blood pressure of 104/82 mm Hg. Her physical examination was suggestive of volume overload, with bilateral rales, peripheral edema, and an elevated jugular venous pressure. Her laboratory investigations were significant for elevated high-sensitivity troponin (13,317 ng/L, reference range [RR] 0-16 ng/L), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) (2170 ng/L, RR ≤ 160 ng/L), and serum lactate (2.9 mmol/L, RR 0.5-2.2 mmol/L). Her electrocardiogram demonstrated sinus tachycardia with a right bundle branch block (Supplemental Fig. S1). Her computed tomography pulmonary angiogram results were negative for pulmonary embolism but did show bilateral ground-glass opacities, large pleural effusions, and pulmonary edema. Her COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction test results were negative.
She was admitted and treated as CHF exacerbation secondary to presumed acute coronary syndrome. She received aspirin, ticagrelor, and heparin and intravenous furosemide for volume overload. Her oxygen requirements continued to escalate.
A transthoracic echocardiogram early in admission demonstrated normal sized left ventricle (LV) with severely decreased global systolic function (left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 26%), moderate right ventricular systolic dysfunction, and moderate-severe functional mitral regurgitation.
Her clinical course continued to worsen over the subsequent few days requiring transfer to the cardiac intensive care unit. Her respiratory status worsened on maximal high flow nasal oxygen. She was intolerant to bilevel positive airway pressure ventilation, ultimately requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation on day 6 of admission. She underwent a coronary angiogram, which demonstrated no significant coronary artery disease. The left ventricular end-diastolic pressure was markedly elevated at 36 mm Hg. Because of the overall clinical picture, an intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) was inserted during the procedure.
After ruling out significant obstructive coronary artery disease, her CHF was thought to be secondary to post-vaccine myocarditis. She underwent aggressive diuresis with furosemide, with norepinephrine and dobutamine support, which resulted in significant ectopy, necessitating suppression with amiodarone. A repeat echocardiogram performed on day 10 postadmission demonstrated ongoing biventricular failure with an LVEF of 25% and moderate mitral regurgitation. A pulmonary artery catheter was inserted, and measurements (Table 1) were consistent with cardiogenic shock, on the basis of a reduced cardiac index (1.7 L/min/m2) and an elevated wedge pressure (27 mm Hg).
EVOLS NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay NewsStudy: Covid ‘Vaccines’ Behind Surge in Deadly Liver FailureA group of leading scientists in Europe have found that Covid mRNA “vaccines” have caused a surge in once-rare liver failure.READ MOREExpert Warns of ‘Bioweapons’ Threat to Disrupt Transfer of Power to Trump with ‘Disease X’A leading American doctor has warned that President Donald Trump’s opponents are planning to “derail” his presidency by launching “Disease X” as a “bioweapons” attack.READ MORENewt Gingrich: Trump ‘May Have Broken’ Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s GovernmentRepublican former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has said that he believes President Donald Trump may have “broken” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government.READ MOREElon Musk: Reuters Is ‘Paid Propaganda’X boss Elon Musk has warned the public that “news” outlet Reuters is actually a paid propaganda operation.READ MOREBREAKING: Fani Willis Disqualified from Trump’s RICO CaseFulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has been disqualified from her politically motivated case against President Donald Trump.READ MOREChristian Teacher Wins $450K Settlement from Ohio School District After Being Fired for Refusing to Use Trans PronounsAn Ohio school district has been ordered to pay $450,000 in compensation to a Christian teacher who was fired for refusing to use inaccurate pronouns for a “transgender” student.READ MOREFetterman: Supporting Trump’s Cabinet Appointees Is ‘Not Controversial – It’s My Job’Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has declared that he would vote “from an open mind and an informed opinion” on President Donald Trump’s cabinet picks.READ MORETikTok Begs Supreme Court for Emergency Order to Prevent US BanTikTok has submitted a request to the Supreme Court to beg for an emergency order to prevent the social media app from being banned in the United States next month.READ MORERepublicans Sink Johnson’s Spending Deal Following Pressure from Trump, Elon MuskRepublicans have sunk House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) massive pork-packed Continuing Resolution (CR) spending deal.READ MORE‘The View’: AOC Lost Bid for Powerful House Leadership Role Because She’s ‘Demonized by the Right’The co-hosts of “The View” have argued that radical Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) lost out on her bid for a powerful House leadership role because she’s “been demonized by the Right” as a “progressive, far-left person.”READ MORECR Bill to Use Taxpayer Money to Fund State Department Agency Behind Censorship, Blacklisting of AmericansThe continuing resolution (CR) bill currently being hammered out among lawmakers on Capitol Hill is provoking outrage over the pork that the legislation has been packed with.READ MOREMSNBC’s Joy Reid Fires Back After AOC Rejected for Top Leadership Role: Democratic Party Run like a ‘Gerontocracy’ of ElitesFar-left MSNBC host Joy Reid has blasted the Democratic Party after radical Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was rejected for a top leadership position in the House.READ MOREBiden’s EPA Gives California Green Light to Ban New Gas Car Sales by 2035President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration has just officially given California the green light to ban new gas car sales in the state by 2035. READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| BOOM! – Florida AG announces major felony charges against would-be Trump assassinFlorida’s Attorney General has filed felony charges against the would-be assassin who sat in wait for President Trump before a Secret Service Agent derailed his plans. Specifically, Ashley Moody has file attempted murder charges against Ryan Routh: Attorney General Ashley Moody has officially announced an attempted felony murder charge against attempted Trump assassin Ryan Wesley Routh. He should NEVER see …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Gov Newsom Declares State of Emergency Amid Bird Flu OutbreakCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency due to H5N1, more commonly known as avian influenza or bird flu. The emergency follows an outbreak of the virus among dairy cows in Southern California farms, according to the news release on the governor’s website. After initially being reported in Texas and Kansas in March, bird flu has been …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Social Media Buzzes Over Trump’s New HairstylePresident-elect Donald Trump appeared before supporters with his hair styled a new way, prompting online commentary on the look. Trump was seemingly fresh off the golf course as he approached a crowd while wearing a Trump-Vance polo shirt and had his hair slicked back. He was at his International Golf Club in Palm Beach, Florida at the time. Trump just …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Biden Finally Speaks Out on Mysterious Drone SightingsPresident Biden broke his silence on the alarming number of drone sightings gripping the tri-state area, insisting there is “no sense of danger” associated with the unexplained flights. “Nothing nefarious apparently, but they’re checking it all out,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Tuesday as many lawmakers have joined concerned members of the public in demanding answers from …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Congress Sneaks Massive Pay Raise for Itself Into Spending BillMembers of Congress are slated to receive a pay raise for the first time in 15 years if the massive spending bill released by House leaders Tuesday evening passes both chambers and is signed into law. The 1,574 page bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), contains language allowing for a cost of living adjustment (COLA), which would give members …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
50% Of Canadian Manufacturers Considering Layoffs If Trump Tariffs Enacted
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 10:20 AM
Authored by Andrew Chen via The Epoch Times,
Nearly half of Canadian manufacturers may freeze hiring or lay off workers if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump imposes 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian goods.
A survey of 300 manufacturers found that 48 percent are considering these moves in response to the proposed tariffs, according to data released Dec. 19 by Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME).
Additionally, 46 percent are considering postponing or cancelling planned capital investments, while 49 percent say they may shift some production to the U.S. if the tariffs are implemented.
“Tariffs will endanger nearly $600 billion in exports to our largest trading partner, two-thirds of which are manufactured goods,” CME president and CEO Dennis Darby said in a press release.
“These findings show why we need an urgent and coordinated response from governments to protect manufacturing businesses, workers, and families.”
Failure to do so “will be devastating for our economy,” Darby said.
Trump threatened the 25 percent tariff against Canada, as well as Mexico, in a series of Truth Social posts on Nov. 25, saying the tariffs will come into effect unless the two countries address the issue of illegal immigration and illicit drugs entering the United States through their borders.
On Dec. 17, the federal government announced it would spend $1.3 billion over six years to bolster border security. The funding will support law enforcement agencies with the use of artificial intelligence and imaging tools to detect and intercept fentanyl and its precursor chemicals entering Canada.
The Canada Border Services Agency will train and deploy new canine teams to assist in drug interception, and Health Canada will establish a Canadian Drug Profiling Centre to support 2,000 investigations annually and expand capacity at regional labs.
The investment will also provide new tools for the RCMP, including a new Aerial Intelligence Task Force comprised of helicopters, drones, and mobile surveillance towers. Counter-drone technology will support RCMP officers and provide 24/7 surveillance between ports of entry, according to the government’s announcement.
Ottawa will improve information sharing with the United States and between different levels of government and law enforcement. This will help officials respond more effectively to illegal border crossings by enhancing real-time intelligence, tracking migration trends, and improving coordination.
end
Canada Is The World’s Best Country For Free Or Universal Healthcare; WHO
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Last week marked the UN’s International Universal Health Coverage Day.
Canada is the leading country worldwide for essential healthcare coverage, according to The World Health Organization’s (WHO) World Health Statistics 2024 report.
The organization ranked 194 countries based on a selection of indicators of key health concerns such as reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health, infectious diseases, noncommunicable diseases and service capacity and access.
The WHO is monitoring universal health coverage by tracking two main indicators worldwide: the coverage of essential health services (SDG 3.8.1) and the lack of financial protection (SDG 3.8.2), which is defined as the “proportion of a country’s population with large household expenditures on health relative to their total household expenditure.”
This is in order to support the UN’s aim of achieving universal health coverage by 2030, which includes financial risk protection, access to quality essential health care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines. As the WHO explains, this is because “protecting people from the financial consequences of paying for health services out of their own pockets reduces the risk that people will be pushed into poverty because the cost of needed services and treatments requires them to use up their life savings, sell assets, or borrow – destroying their futures and often those of their children.”
You will find more infographics at Statista
While this chart only reflects the coverage element of UHC, it still serves to highlight the extent to which global inequalities exist in terms of that access.
Where Canada received a total score of 91 index points out of 100, followed by Iceland, the Republic of Korea and Singapore, each with 89 points, this is a stark contrast to countries at the other end of the spectrum such as South Sudan (34), Central African Republic (32), Papua New Guinea (30), Chad (29) and Somalia (27).
It’s also important to note here that since this data focuses on a nationwide level, it hides regional inequalities within countries and communities. For example, according to the WHO, coverage of reproductive, maternal, child and adolescent health services tends to be higher among those who are richer, more educated, and living in urban areas, especially in low-income countries, while people living in poorer households, rural areas and in households with older family members are more likely to be further pushed into poverty by out-of-pocket health spending.
In terms of tracking overall global trends, WHO researchers outline how improvements to health services coverage have stagnated since 2015, rising only three index points to 68 by 2019 and remaining there until 2021. This is the equivalent to about 4.5 billion people living without full coverage of essential health services in 2021. Meanwhile, in 2019, out-of-pocket health spending pushed 344 million people further into extreme poverty and 1.3 billion into relative poverty.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0394 UP 29 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 156.71 DOWN 0.941 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2508 UP .0011
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4379 DOWN 0.0024 (CDN DOLLAR UP 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 31.81 OR 0.14%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.17%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 31,81 PTS OR 0.16%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.17%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 111.68 PTS OR 0.29%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2602.50
silver:$28.85
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 107.89 DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.762% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.043% UP 1 AND 2/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.979 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.442 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2850 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0395 UP .0032 OR 32 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.58 DOWN 1.078 OR YEN IS UP 108 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5885 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0025 OR 25 BASIS pts to 1.4379
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.3023 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3023)
TURKISH LIRA: 35.20 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.043
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.514% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.712 DOWN 2 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.278 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2617.30
SILVER AT 11;00: 29.30
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 20.71 PTS OR 0.26%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 85.11 OR 0.43%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 19.89 PTS OR 0.27%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 27.40 OR 0.24%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 20.71 OR 0.06%
WTI Oil price 68.66 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 72.30 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 102.98 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 52/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2850 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5885 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.320 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.092 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0442 UP 0.0077 OR 77 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2589 UP 0.0093 OR 93 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5000 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.043
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.13 DOWN 1.52 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4361 DOWN 0.0042 CDN DOLLAR UP 42 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.57
Brent OIL: 73.00
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 4.523
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 4.719%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 0 PTS AT 4.312
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.298 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.071 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 107.41 DOWN 74 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.18 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 103.00 UP 0 AND 50/100 roubles
GOLD 2,598.40 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.13 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 499.43 PTS OR 1.18%
NASDAQ up 178.65 PTS OR 0.85%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.35 DOWN 5.74 PTS OR 23.53%
GLD: $242.10 UP 2.50 OR 1.04%
SLV/ $26.92 UP 0.40 OR 1.51%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: UP 224.18 PTS OR 0.92%
end
USA AFFAIRS
Dove-Driven Dead-Cat-Bounce Fails To Save Bonds, Stocks, & Crypto In ‘Bad Data’ Week
II USA DATA
UMich Inflation Expectations Rise, Driven By Downbeat Democrats
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 10:10 AM
The headline UMich Sentiment survey rose to its highest since April to end the year, thanks to a post-election surge in Current Conditions that more than dominated a dip in Expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
Inflation expectations were mixed with the short-term rising and longer-term falling post-election…
Source: Bloomberg
But breaking down inflation expectation by political party… it’s pretty easy to see which way The FOMC leans…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, Republicans are significantly more confident than Democrats since the election…
Source: Bloomberg
UMich’s Director of Surveys, Joanne Hsu, notes that “Broadly speaking, consumers believe that the economy has improved considerably as inflation has slowed, but they do not feel that they are thriving; sentiment is currently about midway between the all-time low reached in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings.”
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Late Thursday afternoon; Trump sabotaged
“Hell No”: Democrats Throw Mega-Tantrum Over “Musk-Johnson” Funding Deal
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 05:52 PM
Update (1752ET): In what comes as a surprise to nobody, Democrats want their pork – and have said “Hell no” to the massively reduced spending package that Mike Johnson rolled out after conferring with the Trump team.
“The Musk-Johnson proposal is not serious. It’s laughable. Extreme MAGA Republicans are driving us to a government shutdown,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters as he walked into a closed-door caucus meeting Thursday afternoon.
In short, it’s doomed.
“I’m not simply a no. I’m a hell no,” Jeffries then said at the closed-door meeting, Politico reports, citing three people familiar with the meeting.
More via Politico:
Other Democratic lawmakers also expressed doubts about the legislation, which Republican leaders were teeing up for a vote Thursday evening. It would suspend the debt ceiling through early 2027, fund the government through March, and include billions in disaster relief funds, a top Democratic priority.
The vote on the bill is scheduled to come up via a process called suspension, which means it needs to meet a two-thirds vote threshold to pass. If Democrats are roundly against it, it will fail on the floor — leaving Congress without an obvious solution to avoid a shutdown.
“This was done on short notice,” said Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, who said he was opposed. “We reached an agreement on a bipartisan basis between the respective leadership and the membership of both parties, only to have an interruption take place and then a veto occurs after the agreement has been rendered and reached.”
President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk worked to spike the original deal on Wednesday, sending the House careening down an alternate path with a deadline looming.
“Elon Musk is not my constituent. My constituents are hard-working people who work very hard every day for every dime they have, and I’m sure as hell not bailing out on them in the final week,” said Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.), chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition.
Top Democrats weren’t involved in the drafting of the legislation, and the unveiling caught senior lawmakers by surprise.
“All I know is it was just reported by the press. We have not been involved in anything that they have done,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Appropriations Committee Democrat.
Republicans argue the burden is now on Democrats to justify any opposition to a continuing resolution — “CR” for short — that averts a government shutdown and also prevents the U.S. from defaulting on its more than $36 trillion in debt next year.
END
Thursday evening 8 pm
NOPE: Trump-Backed Funding Bill Fails House Vote As 38 Republicans Say ‘No’
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 07:01 PM
Update (1752ET): The first vote to kick the can down the road until 2027 has failed the House, by a vote of 174-235-1, with 38 Republicans voting ‘no’.
The bill required 2/3 of the vote under a fast-track method, yet didn’t even clear a simple majority.
Polymarket odds of a shutdown have spiked to 76% as of this writing
* * *
Update (1752ET): In what comes as a surprise to nobody, Democrats want their pork – and have said “Hell no” to the massively reduced spending package that Mike Johnson rolled out after conferring with the Trump team.
“The Musk-Johnson proposal is not serious. It’s laughable. Extreme MAGA Republicans are driving us to a government shutdown,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters as he walked into a closed-door caucus meeting Thursday afternoon.
In short, it’s doomed.
“I’m not simply a no. I’m a hell no,” Jeffries then said at the closed-door meeting, Politico reports, citing three people familiar with the meeting.
More via Politico:
Other Democratic lawmakers also expressed doubts about the legislation, which Republican leaders were teeing up for a vote Thursday evening. It would suspend the debt ceiling through early 2027, fund the government through March, and include billions in disaster relief funds, a top Democratic priority.
The vote on the bill is scheduled to come up via a process called suspension, which means it needs to meet a two-thirds vote threshold to pass. If Democrats are roundly against it, it will fail on the floor — leaving Congress without an obvious solution to avoid a shutdown.
“This was done on short notice,” said Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, who said he was opposed. “We reached an agreement on a bipartisan basis between the respective leadership and the membership of both parties, only to have an interruption take place and then a veto occurs after the agreement has been rendered and reached.”
President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk worked to spike the original deal on Wednesday, sending the House careening down an alternate path with a deadline looming.
“Elon Musk is not my constituent. My constituents are hard-working people who work very hard every day for every dime they have, and I’m sure as hell not bailing out on them in the final week,” said Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.), chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition.
Top Democrats weren’t involved in the drafting of the legislation, and the unveiling caught senior lawmakers by surprise.
“All I know is it was just reported by the press. We have not been involved in anything that they have done,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Appropriations Committee Democrat.
Republicans argue the burden is now on Democrats to justify any opposition to a continuing resolution — “CR” for short — that averts a government shutdown and also prevents the U.S. from defaulting on its more than $36 trillion in debt next year.
Check back for updates.
end
FRIDAY MORNING
Shutdown Looms As Johnson To Roll Out ‘Very Similar’ Spending Package For Friday Vote
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 09:13 AM
Here we go…
After yesterday’s disastrous failed vote on a pared down spending package, speaker Mike Johnson is set to roll out a revised plan for another bite at the apple before tonight’s deadline for a federal government shutdown.
Except… according to Rep. Anna Paula Luna (R-FL) who just came out of Johnson’s office, the next revision – to be voted on at 10am ET – will be “something very similar to yesterday,” and that Republicans will not negotiate with Democrats, according to Jake Sherman.
Which means a shutdown is imminent unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat.
As Punchbowl News notes, Johnson is desperate – reportedly saying on Thursday that “If anyone else can get 218 votes, God bless them,” according to lawmakers present.
Johnson’s Trump-endorsed Plan-B-funding-and-debt-limit bill failed miserably on the House floor Thursday night. Thirty-eight Republicans ignored Trump and Johnson’s entreaties and voted against the bill, showing the limits of both men’s power in the House.
All but two House Democrats voted no. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) voted present.
After the vote failed, Johnson, who was mobbed by reporters just feet from the House floor, tried to stay positive. “We will regroup and we will come up with another solution so stay tuned,” Johnson said.
Of course, nobody seems to want to try the obvious solution – separate votes, as rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) pointed out Thursday afternoon.
Meanwhile, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise – who disagreed with Johnson’s decision for a short-term CR, said “they’re looking at some other options.”
“What exactly is in or out hasn’t been decided, but you start with keeping the government open,” Scalise told reporters.
President-elect Trump chimed in on Friday as well, posting on Truth Social: “If there is goign to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration, not after January 20th, under TRUMP.”
Polymarket participants are giving a shutdown a 61% chance as of this writing. Let’s see where the below widget goes throughout the day.
Punchbowl has some ideas on the path forward.
1) Try the bill that failed — again. Plan B could become Plan C. Republicans could schedule a vote on the CR package that failed on Thursday again. That’s clearly the package Trump wants, after his “SUCCESS in Washington” tweet.
2) A negotiated settlement. Although Trump might not like it, Democrats have a price. Johnson can get together with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and figure out what Democrats need to support a bill to fund the government past tonight.
The problem for Johnson is this runs the risk of both dividing the House Republican Conference and angering Trump by trying to again cut a deal with Jeffries. Democrats have to be convinced Johnson won’t renege again, as well as being able to deliver enough votes. Sources close to Jeffries say they can deliver the votes. The question is can Johnson?
3) Drop the debt-limit increase. If Johnson were to drop the debt-limit increase from Thursday’s bill, that might be an attractive option for Republicans and even some Democrats. Remember, that’s a three-month CR with disaster funding and an extension of the farm bill. With a shutdown just hours away, this isn’t a bad move.
Plus, many Republicans are truly opposed to Trump’s call to extend the debt limit now. Congress is six months ahead of any debt-limit deadline. Also, Trump also dropped this demand into lawmakers’ laps two days before a shutdown.
4) A short-term CR. There was some talk inside the GOP leadership and among rank-and-file members about a short-term CR to fund federal agencies until early or mid-January. But this wouldn’t change the current reality: Johnson has a very small majority, he has to deal with a volatile incoming president, face down an emboldened mega-billionaire with a social media platform and has a generally uncooperative House Republican Conference.
Stay tuned for updates…
end
FRIDAY AFTERNOON
GOP To Split Bill, Hold Separate Votes; Still Working On Debt Limit
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 09:13 AM
Update (1300ET): House Republicans are now likely to split the bill in pieces and hold different votes. A longer-term debt limit deal is NOT part of it, per Jake Sherman – however it appears that they will attempt to kick the can to March.
And now this…
X.com/JakeSherman/status/1870166064803316119
NEWS — IN THE GOP MEETING — GOP leadership has a slide up that has an “agreement” on the debt limit The “agreement” says that House Republicans will raise the debt limit by $1.5T in the “first reconciliation package” alongside a promise to CUT $2.5T in “net mandatory spending in the reconciliation process.”
Earlier:
NEWS — We hear that house republicans are likely to split the bill in pieces. Hold votes on different titles in the bill — CR, debt limit, ag, disaster relief. This would allow each piece to pass or fail on its own merit.
* * *U.S. AGENCIES ALERTED TO PREPARE FOR AN IMMINENT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN -WHITE HOUSE SOURCES
END
FRIDAY EVENING
exactly how they had it all planned
First CR died
Second CR failed on the floor
Third option lasted a few hours
Now, just a clean CR.
Trump Warns EU: Buy American Oil & Gas Or Face Tariff War
Friday, Dec 20, 2024 – 10:40 AM
“I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” President-elect Donald Trump warned early Friday morning on Truth Social.
According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US trade deficit in goods and services with the EU totaled $131.3 billion in 2022. Following Trump’s presidential victory last month, the EU has been gearing up for a potential trade war with Trump.
The good news is that the US has become the world’s largest crude oil producer and the top LNG exporter. As Brussels and Washington work aggressively to curtail Russia’s energy flows into Europe—whether crude oil, refined products, or NatGas—the US is well-positioned to fill the gap.
Bloomberg noted that the euro traded slightly higher, up about .3% to $1.0398, amid signs that EU officials may increase energy imports from the US in 2025 to avoid a full-blown trade war and remain in Trump’s good graces.
In late November, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told the Group of Seven conference in Italy that the EU is “well-prepared for the possibility that things will become different with a new US administration,” adding, “If the new US administration pursues an ‘America first’ policy in the sectors of climate or trade, then our response will be ‘Europe united.'”
The EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said last month that US LNG has the potential to replace the bloc’s remaining imports of Russian LNG.
“We still get a whole lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia,” von der Leyen said, adding, “And why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper, and brings down our energy prices.”
The US is already Europe’s largest provider of LNG, but imports from Russia remain number two. Brussels continues to search for new ways to curb Moscow’s energy flows into the continent, which will only suggest US energy supplies will be the eventual replacement. We commented earlier this week on the latest fiasco with Russian NatGas pumped into Ukraine, then Slovakia, which is set to be halted at the first of the year.
However, Bloomberg pointed out, “The US doesn’t have much more capacity to increase shipments. And since LNG is sold through long-term contracts, adding shipments to Europe would require original buyers of the gas to agree to divert its shipments to Europe — but that wouldn’t boost the amount being exported by the US,” adding, “Over the longer term, more capacity will come on line with dozens of projects in the US currently in the works.”
END
At Least 100,000 Detention Beds Needed For Mass Deportation Plan; Trump’s Border Czar Says
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Incoming border czar Tom Homan estimates that at least 100,000 beds for illegal immigrants in detention will be needed for the Trump administration to carry out its deportation plans.
President-elect Donald Trump has promised mass deportations, and he tapped Homan, the former acting head of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), to lead the operation.
ICE is currently holding about 38,700 illegal immigrants, according to agency data. An additional nearly 185,000 are being monitored by cellphone or ankle bracelet at a cost of $232,800 per day, ICE data show.
Homan told CNN on Dec. 18 that the operation will involve building new detention facilities and that officials will be seeking to hire more ICE agents.
“It all depends on the funding I get from the Hill,” Homan said, referring to lawmakers in Congress.
Both congressional chambers will be controlled by Republicans come January 2025. Republicans currently control the House of Representatives, but not the Senate.
Homan also said that he will request assistance from the military.
“They’re not going to be out arresting people, but they can be a force multiplier in doing things we need to do that doesn’t require a badge and a gun,” he said.
The first wave of arrests, at least, will target illegal immigrants with a criminal history and those deemed national security threats. But when officials in so-called sanctuary cities decline to allow ICE to take custody of criminals from jails and courts, ICE agents will go into neighborhoods to track them down. That will result in collateral arrests, Homan said this week.
Homan said on CNN that “immigration officers aren’t going to be told to walk away from somebody here illegally.” He also said that illegal immigrants whose children were born in the United States and thus have citizenship, will not be shielded from enforcement operations.
“They put themselves in this position. We didn’t,” he said.
He said that the children can go live with the other parent or a relative.
Some lawmakers and groups have praised Trump’s mass deportation plans.
“Deportations are a critical step in delivering on that promise, restoring the rule of law, and protecting American communities across the country,” the Federation for American Immigration Reform said in a recent article.
Others say that deportations will cause harm.
“Trump’s plans for mass deportation will tear families apart, raid homes, and harm our communities,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) wrote on Wednesday on the social media platform X.
“We need to resist his hateful agenda and fight back to protect our immigrant neighbors because immigrants make our communities stronger.”
The first Trump administration carried out about 1.2 million deportations over four years. During President Joe Biden’s first two years in office, deportations plunged to about 65,000 a year, though they jumped to 253,488 in fiscal year 2024, which ended in September.
END
Jeffry Tucker describes this transition from Biden to Trump
(Tucker/)
A Very Different Transition
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,
The transition from Barack Obama to Donald Trump in 2016 went like every other presidential transition in modern history. The old administration had extended meetings with the new, and old agency heads and their staff trained the new ones. It was managed by Chris Christie and then-Vice President-elect Mike Pence.
It was funded by the General Services Administration and the incoming team received emergency drills, confidential documents, security briefings, and training sessions on emergency protocols. The FBI was brought on board to vet all new hires.
That’s because the incoming administration believed that the system worked. It had won and therefore would be in charge. That’s how it is supposed to work in the United States.
The idea of this process is to ensure continuity in government from one administration to the other.
In normal times, all of this would be a good idea. The Founders set up a structural system of government with minimal functions, stable law, checks and balances, and established elections for president every four years to ensure that the chief executive served with the people’s consent. Most functions of government were handled by the states, in any case.
There was never supposed to be a need for a fundamental regime change. We merely changed administrators and members of Congress. The rest was supposed to take care of itself, which is why it would seem to make sense that the old administration trains the new one, and a permanent staff of experts and civil service employees helps the new kids learn the ropes from those with experience.
And yet here we are. The Trump administration’s mandate from voters is not just for a change in personnel. The mandate is in fact for fundamental regime change within the framework of democracy. The administrative state, which is nowhere found in the Constitution, has over time developed far more power than elected leaders.
That absolutely must change, as voters made clear in November 2024. It was yet another case, just like in 2016, of the candidate winning whom nearly the whole of mainstream media believed would not win, and of the whole of what anyone would call the establishment disfavoring the result. The victory was so overwhelming as to amount to a primal scream against government as usual.
In this case, it makes no sense for the machinery that the incoming administration wants to overthrow to be in charge of the transition.
Remember that this is not Team Trump’s first rodeo. Last time, it went along with all the protocols, funding, systems, and sessions. The White House staff members went through day after day of lectures from government experts on how Washington works. They sat through intelligence briefings. They were schooled in protocols for the management of nuclear war, biological warfare, natural disasters, and pandemics.
They put up with all the PowerPoint presentations, exhortations, manuals, lists, and introductions to people who really run the government. They assumed that once the president was sworn in, he would in fact be the president and those whom he appointed would be in charge.
Almost immediately, however, it became clear that the permanent government was waging some kind of an information war against the elected one. The media worked closely with deeply embedded staff in intelligence and agencies to put out the word that Trump was illegitimately elected due to supposed Russian interference. This began immediately with a bang and put those in the new administration in a tight spot, forever defending themselves against absurd charges that they all knew to be untrue.
When that finally ended, new forms of trolling began, each more severe than the last. The Trump administration always had a loose hold on power due to all of this, but it was finally and fatally upended with the onset of respiratory pandemic. The proposed solution to this, according to all the experts deeply embedded in government, was to wreck the whole of the Trump economy while waiting for a shot to inoculate the public.
Along with that came record unemployment, new permissions and mandates for mail-in ballots, school and business closures, and wild uses of power that the new Trump administration never authorized. The bureaucracies were ruling the country on their own and following the edicts of interests and powers behind the World Health Organization (WHO). Most of the Trump administration’s last year in office was spent trying to claw back power from the WHO.
Finally, in July of 2020, the Trump administration announced that it was pulling itself out of the WHO completely. But that made no difference at all. YouTube had already announced in April that it would delete any content that contradicted the WHO, and it continued to enforce that policy for years. So far as I know, it still does.
After leaving office in January 2021, the Trump team went to work trying to figure out what the heck had happened in the first term to cause everything to go so wrong, or, more specifically, what enabled the administration’s authority to be so thoroughly subverted from within.
It concluded that the real problem began with the transition itself. That was when the permanent bureaucracy first asserted its power over the incoming administration. That’s when the deep state got its hooks in.
This time, the team has a very different plan. It is being managed by trusted members of Trump’s inner circle. They have not allowed the General Services Administration to manage any aspect of the transition. They have done this by refusing to accept any money from any government source. Instead, the transition has been entirely privately funded, with methods deployed to make sure that the funding sources are not tainted by deep state contacts. The explicit purpose has been to avoid subversion.
It’s been the same with FBI vetting. The incoming Trump administration simply does not trust the process and for good reason. It was the FBI that had spied on the campaign and even raided Trump’s own home. Furthermore, it worked with other agencies to deploy myriad forms of lawfare for years.
This transition is without precedent. The permanent staff of government itself only became the U.S. norm starting in 1883, and it has grown every decade since. At some point in the past, the elected leaders became more like decorations than real rulers of government. The Trump administration cannot achieve its objectives with this status quo.
This is the reason for this very different transition. It is a good sign and symbol of what might be coming. We might in fact experience a much-needed change of regime in Washington through exactly the system and process that the Founding Fathers set up. The second term of Trump seems determined to avoid repeating the obvious errors of the last time around.
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IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
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iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING
KING REPORT
| The King Report for December 20, 2024 Issue 7395 | Independent View of the News |
| By an 8-1 vote, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. Naoki Tamura wanted a 25bp rate hike due to increasing upside inflation risks. Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy Concerning risks to the outlook, there remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms’ wage- and price-setting behavior… https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k241219a.pdf Bank of Japan Review of Monetary Policy from a Broad Perspective https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k241219b.pdf Bank of England holds rates but vote split surprises marketsThree members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce rates, while six were in favor of a hold. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast only one member would vote to cut.BOE staff also downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024, now predicting no growth, compared with the 0.3% expansion predicted in its November report…The BOE has taken its key rate from 5.25% to 4.75% this year in two quarter-percentage-point moves… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/19/bank-of-england-holds-interest-rates-at-4point75percent-after-inflation-uptick.html Bank of England Statement: At its meeting ending on 18 December 2024, the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.75%. Three members preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.5%. Since the MPC’s previous meeting, twelve-month CPI inflation has increased to 2.6% in November from 1.7% in September. This was slightly higher than previous expectations, owing in large part to stronger inflation in core goods and food. Services consumer price inflation has remained elevated. Headline CPI inflation is expected to continue to rise slightly in the near term. Although household inflation expectations have largely normalised, some indicators have increased recently… https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/december-2024 @EdConwaySky: Interest rates on the UK government’s 30-year debt are currently up at the highest level since 1998. https://t.co/EnmdcsROXl US Q3 GDP Report: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/gdp3q24-3rd.pdf Government added 86 percentage points to GDP (Fed 55); Healthcare added 79 pps. (Table 2) Government and government related (Healthcare) were the two largest contributors to GDP! Q3 Core PCE is 2.2% q/q; 2.1% expected. Consumption is 3.7%; 3.6% expected. @ClevFedResearch: Monthly PCE inflation data will be released tomorrow. Our inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year PCE inflation of 2.59% for November. Check it out: http://clefed.org/3yCkTHV US weekly jobless claims fell by 22k to 220k; 230k was expected. Continuing claims dropped to 1.874 million from 1.879m; 1.892m was consensus. Nov LEI +0.3%, -0.1% exp, the first gain in 32 months! December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -16.4; +2.8 expected, -5.5 prior As we opined, stocks had an early robust rally, which was led by 6 of the Mag 7 stocks (AAPL fell). The Fang rally featured Tesla, which soared on a HSBC tout (hiked target price to 140 from 126). Alas, the rally was short lived. After hitting a high of 46.36 at 9:31 ET, TSLA sank to 434.40 at 11:12 ET. Other Mag 7 also declined from their early highs, but unlike Tesla, most Fangs remained higher for the session. Broadcom was -0.65% near 11:00 ET; Tesla was -1.0%. ESHs traded a tad lower to moderately higher from the Nikkei opening until the rally for the European opening began at 2:17 ET. ESHs plodded higher until the rally accelerated after the 7 ET US repo market opening. ESHs hit a high of 6005.25 at 9:33 ET. The dump then commenced. ESHs tumbled to 5951.75 at 10:34 ET. ESHs rebounded to 5977.75 at 10:50 ET. ESHs sank anew; but created a double bottom at 11:13 ET. The manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close forced ESHs to 5987.50 at 11:36 ET. Instead of a Noon Balloon, ESHs declined and turned modestly negative at 12:32 ET. Two rally attempts quickly aborted; ESHs fell to 5945.50 at 13:04 ET. The afternoon rally then commenced; ESHs jumped to 5986.25 at 13:59 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESHs sank to 5947.50 at 15:11 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESHs to 5967.25 at 15:24 ET. But too many retail traders are trapped on the long side. ESHs sank to 5938.75 at 15:36 ET. Large traders trapped long, and with expiry December calls, then aggressively manipulated ESHs to 5965.25 at 15:42 ET. Did we mention that too many traders are trapped on the long side, including expiry December calls? ESHs then sank to a new daily low of 593.00 at 15:54 ET. Another late manipulation quickly reversed; ESHs hit a new low of 5931.75 at 15:59 ET. Thursday’s King Report: The action today is likely to be a vicious contest between those that want to manipulate stuff higher to salvage their expiry December calls versus those that want to sell stuff or must sell stuff to remain hedged or those that want to liquidate expiry December calls before they go to zero. Ergo, there could be enhanced volatility today, especially in the afternoon. @IBD_ECarson: On a weekly chart, the 10-year Treasury yield looks like a huge double-bottom base with a handle. On a daily, a cup-with-handle. Overnight, the yield is at 4.53%, signaling a “breakout.” Rebounding yields are a big reason for the market’s woes this month (esp. outside megacaps). https://t.co/0KxdsqRHAW @FinanceLancelot: Micron is down 16% today after announcing weak memory chip demand for AI products & servers. Micron is claiming demand returns 2H, just like they said in 2000. It’s likely not a coincidence this is where the 22-year parabolic trendline ends. https://t.co/DJe7jJdxUg @YahooFinance: “They keep on saying they’re data dependent, but I actually think that’s not quite right,” PGIM Fixed Income chief US economist Tom Porcelli says on the Federal Reserve. “I think they actually are data point dependent, and that, to me, is a bigger problem.” https://t.co/0sb8QrSQkY Stunning new data shows voters were right to question Biden-Harris job numbers How could the Biden-Harris administration have been off by so much? https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/stunning-new-data-shows-voters-were-right-question-biden-harris-job-numbers @WSJ: Wall Street firms are investing billions in single-family rental homes, targeting millennials and others priced out of the home buying market. https://t.co/rJTMHxM5Oo Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied 15.37 points, snapping a 10-session losing streak. Commodities, including precious metals, declined sharply; the dollar rallied moderately. Stocks rallied early; Fangs soared early led by Tesla. An afternoon upward manipulation appeared. Negative aspects of previous session USHs declined as much as 1 17/32. The US 10-year hit 4.57%, its highest yield since May. Stocks got hammered after an early rally. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will institutions and large traders do on December expiration? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5889.56 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5935.52; 5866.07 GOP strikes a new spending deal that includes disaster aid and raising the debt limit Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) already said he was opposed to the plan — an attitude other conservatives are certain to share. “It’s a water-downed version of the same crappy bill people were mad about yesterday,” https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/19/congress/gop-strikes-a-new-spending-deal-00195410 @TrumpDailyPosts: Speaker Mike Johnson and the House have come to a very good Deal for the American People. The newly agreed to American Relief Act of 2024 will keep the Government open, fund our Great Farmers and others, and provide relief for those severely impacted by the devastating hurricanes… The date of the very unnecessary Debt Ceiling will be pushed out two years, to January 30, 2027… All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote “YES” for this Bill, TONIGHT! The new CR bill is 116 pages. https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/American%20Relief%20Act%202025.pdf @DefiyantlyFree: Dem @RepJeffries says democrats won’t vote for a clean CR. A clean CR means continuing to fund the government at these same levels as it is funded right now… So, house democrats want to shut down the government if they can’t spend exactly what they spent under Pelosi. And they think this is a winning message? @Elonmusk: Shows how much they want to sneak in legislative changes and major spending increases! The Trump-endorsed Republican CR failed 174-235-1. 38 Republicans vote against it. Two Dems voted for it. Conservatives are livid that DJT demanded NO debt ceiling for two years! Trump thought it would be a cake walk with his endorsement. Now he is attacking GOP Reps that voted against it. Unless a new CR is approved, the government will shut down today at midnight. GOP @RepThomasMassie: This isn’t complicated. Separate the bills and vote on them individually. One vote on the clean CR; one vote on the debt limit; one vote on disaster relief; one vote on farm bailouts… On Wednesday night, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk dined with DJT at Mar-a-Lago. Newsom Declares State of Emergency in California for Bird Flu He pointed out that the risk to the public remains low, but said California officials “will continue to take all necessary steps to prevent the spread of this virus.”… Health officials said most of the confirmed cases of bird flu in humans have been with dairy and farm workers… https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/gavin-newsom-california-bird-flu/2024/12/19/id/1192222/ After the close, FedEx announced that it would spin off its $30B freight unit. FDX jumped 14%. The spinoff obfuscated FDX’s pour results and guidance: Q2 Adj EPS 4.05, 3.98 exp.; Rev $22.0B, 22.15 exp.; FY 2025 Adj EPS guidance $19 to $20, had been $20-$21; expects flat 2025 Revenue y/y. Today – Normally institutions and large traders buy stock on expiry to replace expiring equity futures. Professional traders usually get long on Thursday afternoon and liquidate into the MOO (Market on Opening) buy orders. Now, traders are trapped on the long side and historically nervous retail traders are beaucoup long expiry December options. There should again be a contest between those that need to manipulate stuff higher and those that want or need to liquidate. There remains a high possibility of a ‘gamma’ squeeze on puts if sellers appear. Per the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Rally begins on December 24 and ends on January 3. The Santa Rally is the last five sessions of a year plus the first two sessions of January. ESHs opened +10.50 and fell to -21.00 at 19:57 ET on the failed CR; NQHs -107.75; and USHs +7/32. Expected Economic Data: Nov Personal Income 0.4% m/m, Spending 0.5%; Nov PCE Price Index 0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y, Core PCE Price Index 0.2% m/m & 2.9% y/y; Dec UM Sentiment 74.2, 1-year Inflation 2.9%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.1%; SF Fed Pres Daly on Bloomberg TV 7:30 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5924; 100-day MA: 5748; 150-day MA: 5646; 200-day MA: 5523 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,455; 100-day MA: 42,255; 150-day MA: 41,315; 200-day MA: 40,691 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5867.08 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5304.59 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6134.87 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5978.18 triggers a buy signal WSJ: How the White House Functioned with a Diminished Biden in Charge Aides kept meetings short and controlled access, top advisers acted as go-betweens and public interactions became more scripted. The administration denied Biden has declined… @WSJ: Interactions with senior Democratic lawmakers and some cabinet members—including Defense’s Lloyd Austin and Treasury’s Janet Yellen—were infrequent or grew less frequent. Some legislative leaders had a hard time getting the president’s ear at key moments. To adapt the White House around the needs of a diminished leader, aides told visitors to keep meetings focused. Staff often repeated instructions to him, such as where to enter or exit a stage. If the president was having an off day, meetings could be scrapped altogether. On one such occasion, in the spring of 2021, a national security official explained to another aide why a meeting needed to be rescheduled… Press aides who compiled packages of news clips for Biden were told by senior staff to exclude negative stories about the president. The president wasn’t talking to his own pollsters as surveys showed him trailing in the 2024 race… https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-diminished-3906a839 White House Biden health cover-up blown wide open in bombshell report: Joe was senile from day one of presidency – Shocking White House cover up over Joe Biden’s decline exposed, including aides hiring voice coach… The White House worked extensively to try and hide President Joe Biden’s mental and physical decline, including placing others in roles that are oftentimes held by the president… Aides would often have to repeat cues to Biden at events both official and on the campaign trail – and images captured instruction cards that gave detailed and remedial instructions on where to walk, sit and look… Biden was shielded by senior advisers who were put into roles that others felt the President should occupy, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, senior counselor Steve Ricchetti and National Economic Council head Lael Brainard as well as her predecessor… a small group of aides stuck close to him at all times and provided intense ‘hand holding.’… Biden is leaving office with a bad taste in his party’s mouth for being ‘selfish.’… others are furious over his decision to pardon his son Hunter… https://trib.al/yv3a5gU The terrifying scandal is that Biden was NEVER president. The full truth about the cover-up, Bad Doctor Jill and all the enemies within must be exposed – Top national security officials told the Journal that meetings with Biden could suddenly, no matter the urgency, be ‘scrapped’. One security adviser had a scheduled meeting cancelled because the President was having ‘a bad day’ — those bad days a common occurrence… In the run-up to the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021 – which Biden was dead-set on executing, despite all best advice not to – the then-chair of the House Armed Services Committee, Adam Smith, tried in vain to reach the president. Smith told the Journal that he desperately wanted to relay his knowledge and grave concerns about the region. But Smith was rebuffed – and thirteen American service members died in that completely avoidable disaster… Lady MacBiden herself, who knew her husband’s sick state better than anyone, but tried to foist him on the country yet again… https://t.co/7g114AGyzv @themarketswork: Every senior official in government was actively lying to the American people about the mental status of the President of the United States. They were also lying about who was running the administration. And the country. There needs to be massive consequences for this coverup. Are Presidential Pardons legally effective if Biden isn’t mentally competent to issue them? Corollary Question: Who drafted the thousands of pardons? @kylenabecker: Joe Biden was a senile, disoriented, non-functional president. The Democratic Party & media covered it up b/c they don’t care about the American people. This is everything we said about Biden for the last four years. And we were called “conspiracy theorists.” We told you so. How vengeful Jill Biden is urging ‘depressed’ Joe to ‘burn the whole thing down’ in their final days… with Obama, Kamala and Pelosi at the top of her ‘naughty list’ Whatever happens next, Biden has made it clear he and Jill will remain in the public sphere. As he said recently: ‘We’re no longer going to be President and First Lady, but we’re not going away.’ No doubt, not everyone in the party will be pleased to hear that. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14207889/vengeful-Jill-Biden-depressed-Joe-Obama-Kamala-Pelosi.html @ClayTravis: After years of denying NBA ratings were collapsing and the league was in trouble, every NBA media member suddenly decided in the past month to acknowledge NBA ratings are collapsing and it’s a big deal. Reminds me of how political media covered Biden’s physical & mental collapse. @RyanAFournier: GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham will OPPOSE the nomination of RFK Jr. to become the HHS Secretary. When will South Carolina voters kick this guy to the curb? @kerpen: States ranked by net domestic migration, 2020 Census to July 1, 2024 estimates. Biggest winners: Florida +872,722, Texas +747,730 Biggest losers: California: -966,209, New York: -1,465,116 https://census.gov/data/tables/ti Fani Willis (Atlanta DA) disqualified from Trump election interference case https://t.co/EPuF4dk9PR @TaraBull808: Dem Rep. Raskin says Elon Musk has become the fourth branch of government. They are losing their minds, and it’s glorious. https://x.com/TaraBull808/status/1869876764954316956 Babylon Bee: Dems Explain They Don’t Want Billionaires Controlling Our Media Unless They’re Bezos, Zuckerberg, Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, or Soros https://buff.ly/4fpOU1D Mysterious alien-like statue is unearthed from a 7,000-year-old Stone Age settlement in Kuwait – and archaeologists say it’s a ‘total surprise’ – They described the clay figure as a ‘small, finely crafted head, with slanted eyes, a flat nose and an elongated skull’… https://trib.al/eLg1Qnn | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON FRIDAY
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