GOLD CLOSED UP $14.50 TO $2650.90

SILVER CLOSED UP 48 CENTS TO $30.09

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2650.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.03

Bitcoin morning price:$100,800 DOWN 2000 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,311 DOWN 6489 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $22.30 TO $952.65

Palladium price; UP 8.20 TO $929.30

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3804.45 up 26.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2123.40 up 17.40 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,561.84 UP 24.59 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)

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EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,638.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/06/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 01/08/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

072 H GOLDMAN 3
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 55
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 62
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 6
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 5
730 C PTG DIVISION SG 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 17 2

---

TOTAL: 77 77

JPMorgan stopped 6/77

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JANUARY/2024. CONTRACT: 77 NOTICES FOR 7700 OZ  0.2372 TONNES

total notices so far: 3926 contracts for 392600 Oz (12.2115 tonnes)

FOR  JANUARY

SILVER NOTICES: 184 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 920,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1488 for 7.440 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $14.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.48 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.824 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 459.353 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 372 CONTRACTS TO 151,118 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $0,38  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN OF 1282 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON MONDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS WHERE THE RAIDS WERE CALLED UPON AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS. THEY FAILED WITH //MONDAY PRICING WITH ZERO LONGS BEING KNOCKED OFF. DERIVATIVE LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT. WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY

WE HAD A MONSTER 910 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 660 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1282 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY’S COMEX SESSION

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 660 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.38) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN PRICE WITH LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION AND A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1282 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A 910 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 210,000 OZ E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 8.190 MILLION OZ

// STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN RISES TO 8.1900 MILLION OZ 

WE HAD:

/ FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// A MONSTER 910 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 660 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 111 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3DAYS, total 1410 contracts:   OR 7.050 MILLION OZ  (470 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  7.050 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ

JANUARY 2025: 7/060 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD AN FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 372  CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG  GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 910 EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 910 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  8.110 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P TRANSER TO LONDON OF 210,000 OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JAN REDUCES TO 8.190 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1282 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 660 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE HUGE TA.S. ISSUANCE// STRONG LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON FRIDAY WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT   (660) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, AND PROBABLY NOT TODAY.

WE HAD 184 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 920,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3129 OI CONTRACTS  TO 464,000 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW GETTING CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  ADDED A HUGE SIZED 175 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (3129 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR  LOSS OF $4.90 IN PRICE MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 10.1331 TONNES  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 876 CONTRACTS OR 87,600 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD THE FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 2025 OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1700 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ (5.28775 TONNES) ISSUED JAN 6/2025 . NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 18.068 TONNES + 5.28775 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 23.3558 TONNES

/NEW STANDING 23.3558 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $4.90 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2642 OI CONTRACTS (8.2177 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 5771 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 463,825

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2642 CONTRACTS  WITH 3129 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5771 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2642 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1789 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5771 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3129 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2642 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 876 CONTRACTS OR 87600 OZ (2.724 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK// NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO: 23.3558 TONNES 

//NEW STANDING JAN: 23.3558 TONNES

 / 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE MONDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS IN REMOVING SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD A 1)  $4.90 PRICE LOSS, BUT 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN OF 2467 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1789 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 12,556 CONTRACTS OF 1,255,600 OZ OR 39.054 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4185 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  39.054 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  39.054 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.098% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

TOTAL 2024 YEAR.3,597.846

JAN. 39.054 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 372 CONTRACTS OI  TO 151,229 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.20233EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 910 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 910 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 483  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 910 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1282 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS A  HUGE 6.410 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.38 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.72 PTS OR 0.71%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 240.71 PTS OR 1.97%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 776.25 OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.65%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3394 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3392// Oil DOWN TO 74.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 76.49 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3129 CONTRACTS TO 464,000 WITH OUR LOSS  IN PRICE OF $4.90 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS DESPITE OUR PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD AS WE HAD, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A VERY STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5771) . THE CME ISSUED ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: (0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ) . THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2642 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED RAID AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A STRONG 1789 T.A.S. ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS  202, 203 AND 204 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD. AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING SESSION.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A VERY STRONG SIZED 5771 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /FEB  5771 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5771 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2642 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5771 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 3129 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.90 MONDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 1789 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WAS EVIDENT IN MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JAN (23.3558 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  NON ACTIVE JAN DELIVERY MONTH.

JANUARY: 10.1331 TONNES

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 49 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES  EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

total year: 540.30 tonnes

January 2025: 18.068 TONNES + 5.28775 EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 23.3558 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $4.90/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY

THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER TRADING AND NOW JANUARY!!

36 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 14.6836 TONNES. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.

WE NOW BEGIN OUR NEW MONTH OF JANUARY AND LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES.

TOTAL DELIVERIES JANUARY TRADING

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 8.2177 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (10.133TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 876 CONTRACTS OR 87,600 OZ (2.724 TONNES) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5.28775 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHERE THE BUYERS ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY.(ISSUED JAN 6/2025)

NEW STANDING FOR JAN: 18.068 TONNES + 5.28775 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 23.3558 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $4.90

WE HAD 175 CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2642 CONTRACTS OR 264,200 OZ (8.2177 TONNES)

confirmed volume MONDAY 196,652 contracts: weak ////nobody wishes to play with the crooks

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE JAN 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

JAN 7

INITIAL

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	.     NIL
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today	77 notice(s) 7700 OZ 0.2372 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1883 contracts    188300 OZ 5.856 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	3926 notices 392600 oz 12.2115 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits: end

we have 0 customer deposit

total deposit NIL oz

withdrawals: 0

adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.

For the front month of JAN: we have an oi of 1960 contracts having GAINED A HUGE 293 contracts. We had a strong 583 contract issuance on MONDAY. Thus a MONSTER QUEUE JUMP (GAIN) of 876 contracts on our two exchanges. (87,600 oz or 2.724 tonnes)

FEBRUARY LOST 7680 CONTRACTS TO 322,286 .

MARCH HAD A GAIN OF 71 CONTRACTS UP TO 136

APRIL HAD A GAIN OF 2971 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,908 CONTRACTS

We had 77 contracts filed for today representing 7700 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 77 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JAN /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3926 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN(1960 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (77 x 100 oz per contract( equals  580,900 OZ  OR 18.068 TONNES. to which we add those criminal exchange for risk issuance of 5.28775 tonnes/PRIOR = 23.3558 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:  No of notices filed so far (3926 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (1960 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (77 x 100 oz which equals  580,900 oz (18.068 TONNES) + 5.28775 tonnes ex for risk/PRIOR = 23.3558

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.: 23.3558 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,122,692.639  oz 66.02 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 21,972,508.258 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,043,231.170 oz or 281.28 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 12,929,227.088 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,920,539 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 215.25 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/1,877,000 oz = 19.15% of entire inventory..

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 7. 2025

INITIAL

//2024// THE JAN 2025  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	2 i) Out of BRINKS 30,912.730 oz ii) Out of DELAWARE 199,205.223 oz total withdrawal: 230,117.653 oz .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	i) Into CNT; 598,886.960 oz ii) Into Brinks 133,978.800 oz iii) Into Loomis 1198,321.77 oz iv) Into JPM 4008.400 oz v) into Brinks addition: 635,480.000 oz total deposit 2,570,675.930
No of oz served today (contracts)	184 CONTRACT(S)    (920,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	150 contracts  (0.750 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1488 Contracts  (7.440 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

deposits:5

i) Into CNT 598,886.960 oz

ii)Into Brinks 133,978.800 oz

iii) Into Loomis 1198,321.77 oz

iv) Into JPM 4008.400 oz

v0 Into Brinks added 635,480.000 oz

total deposit: 2,570.675.930 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks: 30,912.430 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 199,205.223 oz

total withdrawal: 230,117.653 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.532million oz/320.047million  or 42.34%

adjustments:1 customer to dealer: CNT 740,789.400 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 73,242 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 320.047 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN /2024 OI: 334 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 45 CONTRACT(S).

WE HAD ONLY 3 CONTRACT ISSUANCE ON MONDAY. THUS WE LOST 42 CONTRACTS, THAT IS WE HAD A 42 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON FOR 210,000 OZ AS THE BOYS COULD NOT FIND ANY SILVER OVER HERE SO THEY DECIDED TO TRY THEIR LUCK OVER IN LONDON

FEBRUARY SAW A LOSS 0F 45 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 669

MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 647 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 119,375

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 67,755 awful//

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1488x 5,000 oz = 7.440 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (334) and the number of notices served upon today (184)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN 2025 contract month:  1488 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN(334) minus number of notices served upon today (184)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JAN contract month equating to 8.1900 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 8.190 million oz.

There are 73.242 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

JAN 7  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 6  WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 3  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 2  WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

 DEC  31  WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

DEC  30  WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

DEC  27  WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES

DEC  26  WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES

DEC  24  WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES

 DEC  23  WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES

DEC  20  WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES

 DEC  19  WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

DEC  18  WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  17  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  16  WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

 DEC  13  WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES

DEC  12  WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

 DEC  11  WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES

 DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES

DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES

DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES

 NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE

 NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 872.52 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ

DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ

DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ

 DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ

 DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ

DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ

DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ

DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ

DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ

DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ

DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ

DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ

DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ

NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ

NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 463.837 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

END

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

Alasdair Macleod

END

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/

END

ANDREW MAGUIRE AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD//LIVE FROM THE VAULT 204

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY/EGGS

Wholesale Egg Prices Hit Record, Shortages Reported At Supermarkets

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 01:05 PM

Wholesale egg prices, as tracked by the Urner Barry Egg Index, have reached record highs at the start of the new year. This surge is mostly driven by the ongoing devastating impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which has crushed commercial flocks and dented the nation’s egg-laying capacity. 

Three weeks ago, new data from Expana showed that a dozen eggs at Midwest supermarkets averaged around $5.67, a record high that eclipsed the prior high of $5.46 set in December 2022. 

Expana’s managing editor for eggs in the Americas, Karyn Rispoli, told Bloomberg last month that a “potent combination of avian flu-related production losses and heightened retail demand throughout the holiday baking season” catapulted prices to record highs.

Rispoli said 17 million egg-laying hens and younger birds known as pullets had been culled since mid-October amid a surge in bird flu cases, adding that was one of the worst stretches in the current bird flu outbreak since the virus first emerged in the nation’s flock in February 2022.

Last week, the USDA released a report showing the nation’s egg production totaled 8.92 billion, down 4% from the same period last year. Sliding production has sparked egg shortages at supermarkets in certain regions across the US.

The Google Search trend “egg shortage” has erupted to the highest levels since late 2022. 

In California alone, USDA data showed the price of a dozen large white eggs spiked to as high as $8.97 last week, up from $5.23 in late November – a 70% increase. 

end

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING  MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.72 PTS OR 0.71%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 240.71 PTS OR 1.97%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 776.25 OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.65%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3394 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3392// Oil DOWN TO 74.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 76.49 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3394

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3392

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 22.72 PTS OR 0.71%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 240.71 PTS OR 1.22%

2. Nikkei closed UP 776.25PTS OR 1.22%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  108.04 EURO RISES TO 1.0401 UP 18 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.120 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.75…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4495 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.592 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.112

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.213

3j Gold at $2652.50/Silver at: 30.25  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 50/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 107.00

3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and  76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.75  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.120% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9073 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9435 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.697 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.869 UP 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.277 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.31…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6945 UP 5 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.285 UP 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.000 UP 1 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

US Futures Rise With NVDA At New All-Time High

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 08:29 AM

US equity futures are up small this morning as yields continue to rise (SPX +17bps; NDX +5bps; US 10 year yield higher at 4.64%). As a reminder equities typically struggle when rates rise by 2 standard deviations in a given month, which in today’s terms is ~60bps. Stocks remain wobbly after yesterday’s performance which saw big tech \the standout, vs the Dow and S&P equal weight down on the day. Nvidia rose 1.9% in premarket trading to a new record high after CEO Jensen Huang announced a raft of new chips, software and services. Uber also gained on news about a collaboration with Nvidia for autonomous driving technology. Overnight, Europe is broadly higher with Eurozone inflation coming in line with forecasts, though ECB survey shows consumer inflation expectations picked up. Asia closed mixed (Shanghai +71bps/Hang Seng -1.22%/Nikkei +1.97%) with Japan leading the way driven by tech strength (Tokyo Electron +11%). The yen weakened to a 6-month low in the morning before verbal intervention from Finance Minister Kato. The macro focus for today will be Richmond Fed President Barkin (voter) speaks (8am est), JOLTS (10am est, GS 7,750k, consensus 7,745k, last 7,744k), ISM Services Index (10am, GS 53.5, consensus 53.5, last 52.1), & Treasury selling $39B of 10-year notes.

In premarket trading, mag 7 names are mixed: Apple (AAPL) -1%, Nvidia (NVDA) +2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) is flat, Meta Platforms (META) -0.7% and Tesla (TSLA) -1%. Nvidia rises 2% after CEO Huang announced a raft of new chips, software and services, aiming to stay at the forefront of artificial intelligence computing. Apple dropped 1% as MoffettNathanson downgrades the iPhone maker, citing high valuation, antitrust overhang and weakening position in China. Tesla (TSLA) slips 1% after BofA stepped away from its bullish rating, citing valuation and execution risks. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Arbe Robotics jumps 11% after the robotics systems maker announced a collaboration with Nvidia to enhance radar-based free space mapping.
• Aurora Innovation soars 43% as the self-driving technology company partners with Continental and Nvidia to deploy driverless trucks at scale.
• Micron rises 3% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company is providing memory chips for its new GPUs.
• Moderna gains 3%, along with other vaccine developers, as seasonal flu cases across the country continue to increase.
• Uber rises 2% after the ride-hailing company said it’s teaming up with Nvidia in order to accelerate the development of autonomous driving technology.

European stocks gained after money markets shrugged off an uptick in regional inflation and kept expectations for European Central Bank interest-rate cuts steady. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, clawing back earlier losses of as much as 0.4% led by gains in financial services, retail and real estate. Data showed euro-area consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year ago in December, up from 2.2% in November and matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll. The increase was largely driven by energy costs, which climbed for the first time since July, Eurostat said. Swaps pricing points to just over 100 basis points of ECB easing by year-end. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• European retail stocks outperform on Tuesday after UK clothing seller Next boosted its profit forecast, driven by a strong showing from its international online business
• Kion shares rose as much as 10% in Frankfurt trading after the company said it’s working with Accenture to optimize supply chains using Nvidia’s AI and simulation technologies
• BE Semiconductor shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest since July after UBS raises its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying 2025 could mark the turning point for the company, with demand for mainstream chip packaging equipment recovering
• Boliden gains as much as 4.1% after UBS raised the stock to neutral from sell, seeing a more balanced risk/reward ratio after the acquisition of Lundin Mining’s operations in Nerves-Corvo in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden
• Next shares advance as much as 4.3%, after the UK clothing retailer boosted its full-year earnings forecast. Sales to date are ahead of previous guidance, driven by the strength of international online operations, RBC analysts said
• Deutsche Lufthansa shares rally as much as 2.4% after Citi double upgraded the airline to buy. Analysts say 2024 was likely a trough year for the German flagship airline and see potential for capacity growth and greater productivity
• Sodexo drops as much as 9.5%, the most since late September, after delivering a first-quarter performance below analyst expectations. The French catering company maintained its organic growth target for the full year
• Alstom falls as much as 6.1%, after Goldman Sachs downgraded the French rolling-stock manufacturer to sell from neutral, projecting the company’s 94% surge in 2024 will be “difficulty to sustain”
• Pennon slides as much as 5.1%, the most in over five months, after Deutsche Bank downgrades to give the water company its only sell recommendation, citing the likelihood of a large equity raise
• Sika declines drop as much as 2.3% after Barclays downgrades the building materials company by two notches to underweight from overweight and slashes its price target to CHF215 from CHF330

For European markets, “a lot of bad news is priced in already,” Florian Ielpo, head of macro reserach at Lombard Odier Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “You have a recovery that is only starting and that recovery can come with a tad more inflation. European equities could be capturing some of that in the next 12 months.”

Asian stocks gained, boosted by the technology sector as Nvidia chief Jensen Huang’s speech fueled optimism in artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, with chip stocks TSMC and Tokyo Electron among the biggest contributors. Japan led gains among regional markets, followed by Taiwan. Hong Kong shares fell after the US blacklisted Tencent and other companies. Optimism for global AI-related stocks was heightened as Huang unveiled new products featuring Nvidia’s Blackwell chips at the CES trade show in Las Vegas. Shares of chipmakers and related companies have been benefitting from robust public and private investment into AI infrastructure, as well as hopes for improvement in broader tech demand.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%, falling for a third day as investors keep a close eye on trade tensions after US President-elect Trump denied a report that he might moderate plans for across-the-board tariffs. Washington’s move to blacklist some Chinese companies, including Tencent Holdings, served as another reminder of growing frictions. Prior to this week’s pullback, the dollar had surged more than 7% over a three-month period as traders’ anticipated that future US policies would dent global trade and boost the local economy. That said, the greenback’s retreat over the past couple of days doesn’t constitute a lasting trend, said Jacques Henry, head of cross-asset research at Silex in Geneva. “The dollar is in a rising cycle due to the resilience of its economy that’s likely to last,” he said. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar continued its advance following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as head of the Liberal Party. The yen edged off a six-month low after Japan’s finance minister warned about “excessive” FX movements. Monday’s political headlines triggered the most hectic trading day in nearly two months in the currency options markets. Volumes surged to $108 billion by the close of trade, surpassing the activity seen on the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement days last month, according to data from Depository Trust and Clearing Corp.

Treasuries are lower with front-end yields richer by around 1bp and long-end yields slightly cheaper. The Treasury curve extends steepening trend with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by more than 1bp on the day; US 10-year yield around 4.63% is little changed after touching 4.64%, the highest level since May. German yield curve has more pronounced steepening move following euro-area inflation figures for December and bond sales by Germany and Austria. Gilts lag after soft demand for a UK 30-year auction. Focal points of US session include November JOLTS job openings, December ISM services index and 10-year note auction that may draw highest yield since 2007. Meanwhile, the UK’s long-term borrowing costs surged to the highest level since 1998 as investors grapple with a flood of bond sales this year. The yield on 30-year gilts climbed four basis points to 5.22% after a sale of same-maturity securities.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI up 0.2% to $73.70. Spot gold adds $7 to  $2,644/oz.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,024.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 513.38
• MXAP up 0.6% to 182.34
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 572.71
• Nikkei up 2.0% to 40,083.30
• Topix up 1.1% to 2,786.57
• Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 19,447.58
• Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,229.64
• Sensex up 0.3% to 78,201.48
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,285.10
• Kospi up 0.1% to 2,492.10
• German 10Y yield up 1.5 bps at 2.46%
• Euro up 0.4% to $1.0428
• Brent Futures little changed at $76.35/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,642.55
• US Dollar Index down 0.31% to 107.93

Top Overnight News

• Fed Governor Bowman is reportedly the top candidate to replace Fed’s Barr as Vice Chair of Supervision: Semafor.
• New York judge denied US President-elect Trump’s request to delay sentencing in hush money case: RTRS
• US President-elect Trump commented on Truth Social that many people in Canada love being the 51st state and the US can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies Canada needs to stay afloat. Furthermore, he stated if Canada merged with the US, there would be no tariffs, taxes would go down, and they would be completely secure from the threat of Russian and Chinese ships constantly surrounding them.
• Canada reportedly considers an early release of retaliatory tariffs against the US: Globe and Mail.
• China Foreign Ministry on US President-elect Trump talking to President Xi through aides, about the exchanges between China/US, says China attaches importance to the remarks of Trump.
• Chinese-state sponsored hackers penetrated the executive branch of the Philippines government and stole sensitive data as part of a years-long campaign, people familiar said. BBG
• The yen retreated from a six-month low. Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated Tokyo’s discomfort over excessive foreign exchange moves and put speculators on notice that authorities are ready to act to stabilize a faltering yen. RTRS
• Eurozone CPI for Dec was right inline w/the Street at +2.4% headline (up from +2.2% in Nov) and +2.7% core (flat vs. Nov) BBG.
• Eurozone inflation expectations rise according to the latest ECB survey, climbing from 2.5% to 2.6% over 12 months and from 2.1% to 2.4% over 36 months (the 2.4% is the highest since Jul 2024). ECB
• Nvidia shares rose premarket (~+2%) after it unveiled a new lineup including gaming chips and a $3,000 desktop computer. The chipmaker also announced partnerships with Toyota and Uber, showcasing its vision for AI-powered robots, factories and self-driving vehicles. BBG
• MU (Micron) +4.82% after Jensen Huang disclosed that Micron is providing the memory chips for NVDA’s newest GPUs. BBG
• Mark Carney said he’s considering entering the race to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s PM. The former BOC and BOE chief, who is chair of Bloomberg Inc. and Brookfield Asset Management, joins a list of possible contenders with ex-Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. BBG
• US corporate bankruptcies have hit their highest level since the aftermath of the global financial crisis as elevated interest rates and weakened consumer demand punish struggling groups. At least 686 US companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024, up about 8 per cent from 2023 and higher than any year since the 828 filings in 2010. FT
• Congress won’t be able to dial back portions of Biden’s 2021 infrastructure law to pay for other priorities according to a memo, dealing a blow to the GOP’s fiscal ambitions. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech strength stateside where Nvidia briefly reclaimed the largest market cap title and closed at a fresh record. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech and telecoms picked up the slack from the weakness in the utilities, miners and materials sectors, while advances were limited amid disappointing Building Approvals data which showed a wider-than-expected contraction. \Nikkei 225 outperformed on a break above the 40,000 level with the index propelled by a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured from early in the session with heavy losses in Hong Kong after the Pentagon added several companies including Tencent (700 HK) and CATL to the US list of firms alleged to help Beijing’s military, while the downside in the mainland was gradually cushioned following the announcement that China is to hold a briefing on consumer goods trade-in program on Wednesday involving officials from the PBoC, MoF and NDRC.

Top Asian news

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and discussed economic developments, while she raised issues of concern including China’s non-market policies and industrial overcapacity, as well as expressed serious concern about ‘malicious’ cyber activity by Chinese state-sponsored actors. Furthermore, she underscored ‘significant consequences’ facing Chinese companies for material support to Russia, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they are seeing one-sided and sudden FX moves. He reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Kato said he is alarmed over FX moves including those driven by speculators and will take appropriate action against excessive moves, while he also commented that they cannot rule out the chance of Japan going back to deflation.
• Japan’s Keizai Doyukai (business lobby) Chief Ninami says wage growth this year at big firms will likely match levels similar to that of last year.
• Japan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry Head says the number of small/medium-sized firms which will raise wages should rise slightly this year.

European bourses opened mostly in the red, but sentiment lifted slowly as the morning progressed to display a more mixed picture in Europe. European sectors began the morning with a slight negative bias, but now display a more mixed picture. Financial Services takes the top spot, joined closely by Retail and then by Basic Resources to complete the top 3. The latter is buoyed by gains in underlying metals prices. Banks sit at the foot of the pile, but with losses to a similar magnitude as Insurance and Healthcare.

Top European news

• Barclays UK December consumer spending was flat Y/Y compared to December 2023.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Nov): See inflation in next 12 months at 2.6% (prev. 2.5%); 3y ahead sees 2.4% (prev. 2.1%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, to stand at -1.3% in November, compared with -1.1% in October.

FX

• USD is softer vs. all peers with DXY down for a third consecutive session. Recent price action for the Greenback has been dictated by the recent Washington Post report that Trump’s tariff plans may not be as bad as initially feared. Whilst Trump did later attempt to downplay this, ING is of the view that “there is no smoke without fire”. For today’s docket, attention will be on ISM services PMI and JOLTS data ahead of NFP on Friday. DXY has been as low as 107.84 but is holding above yesterday’s 107.75.
• EUR remains supported after being catapulted from a 1.0294 base yesterday in the wake of reports that the Trump tariff programme may be less stringent than initially feared. The macro focus has been on the December Eurozone inflation report which showed headline HICP advancing to 2.4% from 2.2% as expected and the super-core rate holding steady at 2.7%. Some minor softness was observed in EUR/USD amid expectations of a potentially hotter figure given the outturn for Germany yesterday; currently 1.0430.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD after USD/JPY reached its highest level since July during APAC trade at 158.41. This subsequently triggered some jawboning from Japan’s Finance Minister Kato who noted they are recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves and reiterated to take appropriate action against excessive moves. Elsewhere, Barclays have shifted their BoJ view and now see the Bank hiking in March and October vs. previous forecast of January and July
• GBP has extended on yesterday’s tariff-induced gains vs. the USD with major fresh macro drivers for the UK on the light side today. As such, Cable has eclipsed yesterday’s peak at 1.2550 but has failed to sustain a move above its 21DMA at 1.2573.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard with markets continuing to deliberate the prospect of a potentially more friendly tariff programme by the Trump regime.
• CHF is a touch softer vs. the EUR post-Swiss CPI metrics. Y/Y headline CPI fell to 0.6% from 0.7% as expected, whilst the core rate fell to 0.7% from 0.9% (expected 0.8%). The 0.6% outturn means that the average across Q4 as a whole came in around 0.63% and is shy of SNB’s 0.7% projection for Q4. EUR/CHF moved back onto a 0.94 handle following the data and is eyeing the 30th December peak at 0.9441.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1879 vs exp. 7.2994 (prev. 7.1876)

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat, in a narrow 108-13+ to 108-20 band. Complex awaits US data incl. JOLTS and ISM Services alongside Fed’s Barkin (expected to reiterate remarks from 3rd Jan.) before 10yr supply. Last night’s 3yr auction was soft overall and weighed on USTs into settlement.
• Bunds pressured in-fitting with the above and the tentatively constructive European risk tone ahead of Flash HICP. Before that, the December HICP Y/Y figure for France came in cooler than newswire consensus though hotter than the prior.
• Thereafter, EGBs saw fleeting upside on the EZ data which came in in-line for the headline though with services and core slightly hot, upside perhaps driven by expectations for a hotter headline post-Germany; though, the Bunds upside proved shortlived.
• Gilts are underperforming. UK specifics light aside from Construction PMI which spurred no move and a strong BRC Retail Sales report for December, the latter perhaps weighing on Gilts. Given the pressure, which has taken Gilts to a 91.68 trough just above last week’s 91.65 base and the contract low a tick below at 91.64, yields are firmer across the curve with the 30yr above 5.21% and at its highest since 1998. A slightly soft, but robust overall, UK auction spurred little move in Gilts.
• UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt: b/c 2.75x (prev. 3.0x), average yield 5.198% (prev. 4.747%) & tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.472bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2026 Schatz: b/c 2.30x (prev. 2.30x), average yield 2.18% (prev. 1.94%) & retention 22.8% (prev. 19.84%).

Commodities

• A relatively choppy start to the session for the crude complex, though benchmarks currently resides near the bottom end of the day’s ranges. Macro developments have been light thus far, so focus will likely be on US ISM Services PMI alongside JOLTS Job Openings. Brent’Mar currently towards the lower end of a USD 75.91-76.36/bbl range.
• Gold is firmer but only modestly so. Upside as a result of the soft USD and relatively tepid risk tone thus far. Furthermore, a modest bullish reaction was seen on China’s monthly reserves figures, which showed the second consecutive monthly increase in gold reserves. At the upper-end of USD 2632-2646/oz parameters, which is entirely within but towards the top-end of Monday’s parameters.
• Copper is modestly firmer, taking impetus from the softer USD and perhaps from the European risk tone, though that has been slightly more tentative thus far. 3M LME Copper holding above the USD 9k handle.
• BofA says natgas balances likely to tighten in 2025 as 2.5 BCF/D of demand growth outruns the 2.1 BCF/D of supply growth, supporting the bullish outlook

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official says Israel is fully committed to conclude a hostage deal; the only way to get a deal is to put pressure on Hamas
• Israeli army said it bombed a cell of militants in the town of Tammun, south of Tubas, in the northern West Bank, according to Al Jazeera.
• Hamas leader said they asked for maps outlining the withdrawal process and the atmosphere pointing to an integrated deal to end the war in Gaza, according to Asharq News.
• “Iranian media report that the first phase of manoeuvres to test the defense systems of the Natanz nuclear facility has begun”, according to journalist Elster.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea confirmed Monday’s launch of a new hypersonic missile, while it was separately reported that North Korea plans to launch an ICBM before the Trump inauguration, according to Chosun Ilbo. In relevant news, South Korean acting President Choi said they are to respond sternly to North Korean provocation and that North Korea missile test poses a significant security threat.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. Trade Balance, est. -$78.3b, prior -$73.8b
• 10:00: Nov. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 7.74m, prior 7.74m
  • Nov. JOLTS Layoffs Rate, prior 1.0%
  • Nov. JOLTS Layoffs Level, prior 1.63m
  • Nov. JOLTS Quits Rate, prior 2.1%
  • Nov. JOLTS Quits Level, prior 3.33m
  • Nov. JOLTS Job Openings Rate, est. 4.6%, prior 4.6%
• 10:00: Dec. ISM Services Index, est. 53.5, prior 52.1
  • Dec. ISM Services Employment, est. 51.4, prior 51.5
  • Dec. ISM Services New Orders, est. 54.2, prior 53.7
  • Dec. ISM Services Prices Paid, est. 57.5, prior 58.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Helsinki where I’ve started my work year pretty much every year (ex-Covid) for the last 25. It’s cold but I’m acclimatised as I’m just back from a very snowy ski trip in the Alps which unfortunately coincided with a pretty dreadful bout of flu or perhaps Covid. My wife and I spent the entire two weeks drained and coughing and spluttering 24/7 which wasn’t fun in the cold. The kids and Brontë didn’t adjust their demands accordingly though so it was hard work. I could do with a fresh two week holiday to recover.

Talking of two weeks, yesterday it was only that length of time until Donald Trump’s inauguration. Ahead of that, tariffs were back in focus yesterday, as investors faced up to competing theories about how aggressively the new administration would increase them. The big moves over the last 24 hours began with a Washington Post report, which said that Trump’s aides were looking at a plan for universal tariffs on all countries, but just covering critical imports rather than everything. The article cited “three people familiar with the matter”, and led to an immediate market reaction, as investors felt this was less aggressive than some of the earlier plans that had been suggested. After all, this would only put tariffs on sectors that were seen as critical for national or economic security, and the article led to an immediate rally in Treasuries and a weakening in the US Dollar.

But shortly after, that market reaction unwounded as Trump posted on Truth Social that the story “incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong.” So that led to a fresh bout of concern that Trump was still going to pursue a more aggressive tariff agenda, which in turn would lead to higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed. So over the course of this episode yesterday, the 10yr Treasury yield went from 4.61% before the article, to a low of 4.57% afterwards, before bouncing back after Trump’s post to close at 4.63%. The selloff was particularly clear at the long end of the curve, and it meant the 2s10s curve steepened to 35.1bps, the steepest since May 2022. 30yr US yields (4.85%) closed at 14-month highs. The next test will be today’s JOLTS and services ISM.

Those concerns about higher inflation then got fresh support from Germany’s flash CPI release, which surprised on the upside in December. It showed headline inflation rising to an 11-month high of +2.9% on the EU-harmonised measure, which was three-tenths above consensus. Moreover, it came after the Spanish CPI print also surprised on the upside last week, so that’s raising concerns about the Euro Area-wide release that’s coming out today. Indeed, yields on 10yr bunds were up +2.4bps to 2.45%, which is their highest level since July. Bear in mind as well that the 10yr bund yield has already risen for 5 consecutive weeks. So if there’s a 6th rise this week, that would be the longest run of weekly gains since 2022, back when inflation was raging and the ECB were hiking by 75bps per meeting. Our European economists have started the year with a blog series on some of the most important drivers for the continent in 2025. Part one from yesterday is here and part two this morning (link here) looks at inflation which is topical given today’s Euro Area print.

Despite all the concerns about inflation and tariffs, equities actually managed to put in a solid session on both sides of the Atlantic. The gains were stronger in Europe, with the STOXX 600 up +0.95%, whilst the CAC 40 (+2.24%) posted its strongest daily advance since September. Over in the US, the S&P 500 (+0.55%) saw a more moderate gain, rising as much as +1.3% intra-day but then losing some steam as the session went on. That rise was led by the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.92% as Nvidia (+3.43%) reached a new all-time high with a market cap of $3.66trn. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang in his keynote speech at the CES 2025 conference (after the closing bell) announced a raft of new chips, software and services to accelerate AI adoption in humanoid robots and self-driving cars and trucks. So there is seemingly no end to their ambition and excitement about tech and AI as we start 2025. By contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down -0.05% yesterday, as defensive sectors including utilities (-1.10%) and consumer staples (-0.98%) underperformed. So it was by no means a uniformly rosy picture.

The other notable underperformer was the US dollar, with the broad dollar index falling by -0.67% yesterday. It had been down as much as -1.2% after the Washington Post story before partially recovering after Trump’s retort. In turn, the euro saw its best day against the greenback in six weeks. That said, at 1.0387 it is still down by -7% since late September, having fallen to a 2-year low last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning outside of China. The Nikkei (+1.91%) is leading gains and is making a strong comeback after closing over -1% lower on the first trading day of 2025 on Monday. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.34%) is paring back its initial stronger gains after climbing over +1% to surpass the 2,500 level for the first time since December 16. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.33%) is also edging higher. On the otherside of the ledger, Chinese stocks are lagging this morning with the Hang Seng (-2.17%) emerging as the biggest underperformer while the Shanghai Composite (-0.32%) and the CSI (-0.08%) are also trading in negative territory after the US labelled Tencent Holding Ltd. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. (CATL) – the world’s largest electric vehicle battery maker – as companies with alleged links to the Chinese military. Outside of Asia, S&P 500 (-0.15%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) futures are seeing minor losses.

In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.30%) is weakening for the second straight session, trading at 158.11 against the dollar, its weakest level since July even after Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government will take appropriate action against sudden foreign exchange moves.

Elsewhere yesterday, there were major political headlines out of Canada, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he’d be resigning as Liberal Party leader. The move follows significant pressure from other Liberal MPs on Trudeau to resign, and his position became increasingly uncertain after his Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland resigned last month. Trudeau will stay on as PM until a new leader is picked, and the Canadian parliament will be prorogued until March 24th in the meantime. A federal election is due to be held in Canada by October but may come sooner if opposition parties push for a confidence vote once parliament reconvenes. The Liberals are currently well behind the opposition Conservatives in the polls, with CBC’s tracker putting the Conservatives on 44% and the Liberals on just 20%.

Finally, we also got a bit of Fedspeak yesterday, with Governor Cook echoing the tone of other speakers this week. She said that “we can afford to proceed more cautiously with further cuts”, but that it was still “appropriate to move the policy rate toward a more neutral stance”. There was also some unexpected news from the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, who said he would step down as Vice Chair for Supervision at the end of February, or an earlier time if a successor was confirmed. However, Barr said he would continue to serve on the Fed’s Board of Governors.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index for December, the JOLTS report for November, and the trade balance for November. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get the flash CPI release for December, and the unemployment rate for November. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, and get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for November.

2B) EUROPEAN REPORT

US futures gain modestly, USTs contained into data & supply – Newsquawk US Market Open

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 06:09 AM

• European bourses are mixed, US futures gain slightly.
• USD remains soggy vs. peers, EUR digests CPI metrics, Antipodeans lead.
• USTs are contained into data, EGBs lift slightly on HICP, Gilts lag.
• A choppy start for crude while spot gold benefits from the broadly softer Dollar.
• Looking ahead, US ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, International Trade, Canadian Imports/Exports, Comments from Fed’s Barkin, Supply from the US.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses opened mostly in the red, but sentiment lifted slowly as the morning progressed to display a more mixed picture in Europe.
• European sectors began the morning with a slight negative bias, but now display a more mixed picture. Financial Services takes the top spot, joined closely by Retail and then by Basic Resources to complete the top 3. The latter is buoyed by gains in underlying metals prices. Banks sit at the foot of the pile, but with losses to a similar magnitude as Insurance and Healthcare.
• US equity futures are incrementally in the green, with the NQ/ES ultimately taking a breather after the tech-led strength seen in the prior session.
• Nvidia (NVDA): At CES 2025, Nvidia CEO unveiled its GeForce RTX 50 series GPU (RTX 5070-5090, priced USD 549-1,999) featuring Blackwell architecture and GDDR7 memory. It also introduced Project Digits, a USD 3,000 AI supercomputer with the GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip, and announced AI advancements for robotics and self-driving cars.
• Deutsche Bank has turned Overweight on European equities vs the US. Upgrades the European Healthcare sector to Overweight.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is softer vs. all peers with DXY down for a third consecutive session. Recent price action for the Greenback has been dictated by the recent Washington Post report that Trump’s tariff plans may not be as bad as initially feared. Whilst Trump did later attempt to downplay this, ING is of the view that “there is no smoke without fire”. For today’s docket, attention will be on ISM services PMI and JOLTS data ahead of NFP on Friday. DXY has been as low as 107.84 but is holding above yesterday’s 107.75.
• EUR remains supported after being catapulted from a 1.0294 base yesterday in the wake of reports that the Trump tariff programme may be less stringent than initially feared. The macro focus has been on the December Eurozone inflation report which showed headline HICP advancing to 2.4% from 2.2% as expected and the super-core rate holding steady at 2.7%. Some minor softness was observed in EUR/USD amid expectations of a potentially hotter figure given the outturn for Germany yesterday; currently 1.0430.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD after USD/JPY reached its highest level since July during APAC trade at 158.41. This subsequently triggered some jawboning from Japan’s Finance Minister Kato who noted they are recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves and reiterated to take appropriate action against excessive moves. Elsewhere, Barclays have shifted their BoJ view and now see the Bank hiking in March and October vs. previous forecast of January and July
• GBP has extended on yesterday’s tariff-induced gains vs. the USD with major fresh macro drivers for the UK on the light side today. As such, Cable has eclipsed yesterday’s peak at 1.2550 but has failed to sustain a move above its 21DMA at 1.2573.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard with markets continuing to deliberate the prospect of a potentially more friendly tariff programme by the Trump regime.
• CHF is a touch softer vs. the EUR post-Swiss CPI metrics. Y/Y headline CPI fell to 0.6% from 0.7% as expected, whilst the core rate fell to 0.7% from 0.9% (expected 0.8%). The 0.6% outturn means that the average across Q4 as a whole came in around 0.63% and is shy of SNB’s 0.7% projection for Q4. EUR/CHF moved back onto a 0.94 handle following the data and is eyeing the 30th December peak at 0.9441.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1879 vs exp. 7.2994 (prev. 7.1876).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are flat, in a narrow 108-13+ to 108-20 band. Complex awaits US data incl. JOLTS and ISM Services alongside Fed’s Barkin (expected to reiterate remarks from 3rd Jan.) before 10yr supply. Last night’s 3yr auction was soft overall and weighed on USTs into settlement.
• Bunds pressured in-fitting with the above and the tentatively constructive European risk tone ahead of Flash HICP. Before that, the December HICP Y/Y figure for France came in cooler than newswire consensus though hotter than the prior.
• Thereafter, EGBs saw fleeting upside on the EZ data which came in in-line for the headline though with services and core slightly hot, upside perhaps driven by expectations for a hotter headline post-Germany; though, the Bunds upside proved shortlived.
• Gilts are underperforming. UK specifics light aside from Construction PMI which spurred no move and a strong BRC Retail Sales report for December, the latter perhaps weighing on Gilts. Given the pressure, which has taken Gilts to a 91.68 trough just above last week’s 91.65 base and the contract low a tick below at 91.64, yields are firmer across the curve with the 30yr above 5.21% and at its highest since 1998. A slightly soft, but robust overall, UK auction spurred little move in Gilts.
• UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt: b/c 2.75x (prev. 3.0x), average yield 5.198% (prev. 4.747%) & tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.472bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2026 Schatz: b/c 2.30x (prev. 2.30x), average yield 2.18% (prev. 1.94%) & retention 22.8% (prev. 19.84%).
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• A relatively choppy start to the session for the crude complex, though benchmarks currently resides near the bottom end of the day’s ranges. Macro developments have been light thus far, so focus will likely be on US ISM Services PMI alongside JOLTS Job Openings. Brent’Mar currently towards the lower end of a USD 75.91-76.36/bbl range.
• Gold is firmer but only modestly so. Upside as a result of the soft USD and relatively tepid risk tone thus far. Furthermore, a modest bullish reaction was seen on China’s monthly reserves figures, which showed the second consecutive monthly increase in gold reserves. At the upper-end of USD 2632-2646/oz parameters, which is entirely within but towards the top-end of Monday’s parameters.
• Copper is modestly firmer, taking impetus from the softer USD and perhaps from the European risk tone, though that has been slightly more tentative thus far. 3M LME Copper holding above the USD 9k handle.
• BofA says natgas balances likely to tighten in 2025 as 2.5 BCF/D of demand growth outruns the 2.1 BCF/D of supply growth, supporting the bullish outlook
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU HICP Flash YY (Dec) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.2%); services inflation 4.0% (prev. 3.9%); EU HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY (Dec) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%); EU HICP-X F&E Flash YY (Dec) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%); EU HICP-X F, E, A, T Flash MM (Dec) 0.50% (Prev. -0.60%)
• EU Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%)
• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.1% (Prev. -3.4%); Total Sales YY 3.2% (Prev. -3.3%)
• UK Halifax House Prices MM (Dec) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.3%); YY 3.30% vs Exp. 4.20% (Prev. 4.80%)
• Swiss CPI YY (Dec) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%); Core 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (prev. 0.9%)
• French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Dec) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%)
• German HCOB Construction PMI (Dec) 37.8 (Prev. 38.0)
• French HCOB Construction PMI (Dec) 42.6 (Prev. 43.7)
• Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Dec) 51.2 (Prev. 48.5)
• EU HCOB Construction PMI (Dec) 42.9 (Prev. 42.7)
• UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Dec) 53.3 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 55.2)
• Italian CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Dec) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.5%); CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%); Consumer Price Prelim YY (Dec) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.3%); Consumer Price Prelim MM (Dec) 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Barclays UK December consumer spending was flat Y/Y compared to December 2023.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Nov): See inflation in next 12 months at 2.6% (prev. 2.5%); 3y ahead sees 2.4% (prev. 2.1%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, to stand at -1.3% in November, compared with -1.1% in October.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed Governor Bowman is reportedly the top candidate to replace Fed’s Barr as Vice Chair of Supervision, according to Semafor.
• New York judge denied US President-elect Trump’s request to delay sentencing in hush money case, according to a court ruling cited by Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump commented on Truth Social that many people in Canada love being the 51st state and the US can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies Canada needs to stay afloat. Furthermore, he stated if Canada merged with the US, there would be no tariffs, taxes would go down, and they would be completely secure from the threat of Russian and Chinese ships constantly surrounding them.
• Canada reportedly considers an early release of retaliatory tariffs against the US, according to The Globe and Mail.
• China Foreign Ministry on US President-elect Trump talking to President Xi through aides, about the exchanges between China/US, says China attaches importance to the remarks of Trump.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official says Israel is fully committed to conclude a hostage deal; the only way to get a deal is to put pressure on Hamas
• Israeli army said it bombed a cell of militants in the town of Tammun, south of Tubas, in the northern West Bank, according to Al Jazeera.
• Hamas leader said they asked for maps outlining the withdrawal process and the atmosphere pointing to an integrated deal to end the war in Gaza, according to Asharq News.
• “Iranian media report that the first phase of manoeuvres to test the defense systems of the Natanz nuclear facility has begun”, according to journalist Elster.

OTHER

• North Korea confirmed Monday’s launch of a new hypersonic missile, while it was separately reported that North Korea plans to launch an ICBM before the Trump inauguration, according to Chosun Ilbo. In relevant news, South Korean acting President Choi said they are to respond sternly to North Korean provocation and that North Korea missile test poses a significant security threat.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to remain near the prior day’s peaks, holding just shy of the USD 102k mark.
• CFTC’s Benham says he is concerned that regulation for digital assets, which include Bitcoin and other crypto’s, remain insufficient; is to step down from his position on Jan 20, via the FT.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech strength stateside where Nvidia briefly reclaimed the largest market cap title and closed at a fresh record.
• ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech and telecoms picked up the slack from the weakness in the utilities, miners and materials sectors, while advances were limited amid disappointing Building Approvals data which showed a wider-than-expected contraction.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed on a break above the 40,000 level with the index propelled by a weaker currency.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured from early in the session with heavy losses in Hong Kong after the Pentagon added several companies including Tencent (700 HK) and CATL to the US list of firms alleged to help Beijing’s military, while the downside in the mainland was gradually cushioned following the announcement that China is to hold a briefing on consumer goods trade-in program on Wednesday involving officials from the PBoC, MoF and NDRC.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and discussed economic developments, while she raised issues of concern including China’s non-market policies and industrial overcapacity, as well as expressed serious concern about ‘malicious’ cyber activity by Chinese state-sponsored actors. Furthermore, she underscored ‘significant consequences’ facing Chinese companies for material support to Russia, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they are seeing one-sided and sudden FX moves. He reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Kato said he is alarmed over FX moves including those driven by speculators and will take appropriate action against excessive moves, while he also commented that they cannot rule out the chance of Japan going back to deflation.
• Japan’s Keizai Doyukai (business lobby) Chief Ninami says wage growth this year at big firms will likely match levels similar to that of last year.
• Japan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry Head says the number of small/medium-sized firms which will raise wages should rise slightly this year.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Building Approvals (Nov) -3.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 4.2%, Rev. 5.2%)
• Chinese FX Reserves (Monthly) (Dec) 3.202Trl vs. Exp. 3.247Trl (Prev. 3.266Trl); Gold reserves USD 191.3bln (prev. 193bln); Gold reserves 73.29mln/oz (prev. 72.9mln)

2C ASIAN REPORT

APAC mostly higher amid tech strength, EZ HICP & US ISM Services ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 01:44 AM

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech strength stateside where Nvidia briefly reclaimed the largest market cap title and closed at a fresh record.
• DXY felt some slight reprieve from the prior day’s selling pressure, EUR/USD held on to most of yesterday’s gains, USD/JPY briefly breached the 158.00 level to the upside.
• Canada reportedly considers an early release of retaliatory tariffs against the US, according to The Globe and Mail.
• European equity futures indicate a negative cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 2.4% on Monday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, ECB SCE, EZ HICP & Unemployment, US ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, International Trade, Canadian Imports/Exports, Comments from Fed’s Barkin, Supply from UK, Germany & US.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were ultimately mixed with outperformance seen in the Nasdaq as large caps gained and semis were bid following commentary from Microsoft (MSFT) which is to spend USD 80bln on AI data centres and as attention turns to CES this week with Nvidia CEO speaking overnight.
• Equity futures were bid early on after a report in The Washington Post that Trump’s trade policies are going to focus on certain sectors, essentially a watered-down tariff proposal from what Trump was gunning for during the election, although Trump later refuted the Post’s claims in which he stated the story of paring back his tariff policy is wrong and fake news.
• SPX +0.55% at 5,975, NDX +1.09% at 21,559, DJIA -0.06% at 42,707, RUT -0.08% at 2,267.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• New York judge denied US President-elect Trump’s request to delay sentencing in hush money case, according to a court ruling cited by Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump commented on Truth Social that many people in Canada love being the 51st state and the US can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies Canada needs to stay afloat. Furthermore, he stated if Canada merged with the US, there would be no tariffs, taxes would go down, and they would be completely secure from the threat of Russian and Chinese ships constantly surrounding them.
• Canada reportedly considers an early release of retaliatory tariffs against the US, according to The Globe and Mail.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech strength stateside where Nvidia briefly reclaimed the largest market cap title and closed at a fresh record.
• ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech and telecoms picked up the slack from the weakness in the utilities, miners and materials sectors, while advances were limited amid disappointing Building Approvals data which showed a wider-than-expected contraction.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed on a break above the 40,000 level with the index propelled by a weaker currency.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured from early in the session with heavy losses in Hong Kong after the Pentagon added several companies including Tencent (700 HK) and CATL to the US list of firms alleged to help Beijing’s military, while the downside in the mainland was gradually cushioned following the announcement that China is to hold a briefing on consumer goods trade-in program on Wednesday involving officials from the PBoC, MoF and NDRC.
• US equity futures were rangebound and struggled for direction after the prior day’s mixed and choppy performance.
• European equity futures indicate a negative cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 2.4% on Monday.

FX

• DXY felt some slight reprieve from the prior day’s selling pressure that was exacerbated by a Washington Post report suggesting a potential moderation of Trump’s aggressive tariff plans which dragged the DXY briefly beneath the 108.00 level before rebounding off intraday lows as Trump later refuted the report. Elsewhere, recent data provided little to spur a recovery as Factory Orders fell more than expected and Final S&P Global PMI data was revised downward on both the composite and services components for December.
• EUR/USD held on to most of yesterday’s gains but was off highs after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 1.0400 handle, while attention turns to EU inflation.
• GBP/USD took a breather at the 1.2500 territory following its recent outperformance, while overnight data was encouraging as UK BRC Retail Sales returned to growth and Total Sales accelerated at the fastest pace since March last year.
• USD/JPY resumed its advances and briefly breached the 158.00 level to the upside to print its highest in around six months which prompted some jawboning from Japan’s Finance Minister Kato who noted they are recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves and reiterated to take appropriate action against excessive moves.
• Antipodeans kept afloat with gains gradual after a firmer-than-expected yuan reference rate and disappointing Australian Building Approvals data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1879 vs exp. 7.2994 (prev. 7.1876).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were little changed after the recent indecisive performance as Trump refuted reports that he is dialling back on his tariff policies, while prices were also not helped in the aftermath of a soft 3yr auction stateside.
• Bund futures attempted to nurse some of their recent losses but with the recovery limited by firmer-than-expected German inflation and as supply looms.
• 10yr JGB futures were constrained as yields continued to gain with the 30yr yield at its highest since 2010, although there was slight support seen after a stronger-than-previous 10yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were subdued after the prior day’s whipsawing as indecision was seen across a wide range of asset classes alongside the Trump tariff reports.
• Bloomberg OPEC Survey for December found crude output fell 120k BPD to 27.05mln BPD with output dipping as UAE improves delivery of cuts.
• Spot gold traded rangebound with only mild support seen despite the recent dollar weakness.
• Copper futures lacked conviction as sentiment in its largest purchaser China lagged behind regional peers amid trade-related frictions.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin marginally eased back overnight following yesterday’s resurgence to above the USD 102,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and discussed economic developments, while she raised issues of concern including China’s non-market policies and industrial overcapacity, as well as expressed serious concern about ‘malicious’ cyber activity by Chinese state-sponsored actors. Furthermore, she underscored ‘significant consequences’ facing Chinese companies for material support to Russia, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they are seeing one-sided and sudden FX moves. He reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Kato said he is alarmed over FX moves including those driven by speculators and will take appropriate action against excessive moves, while he also commented that they cannot rule out the chance of Japan going back to deflation.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Building Approvals (Nov) -3.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 4.2%, Rev. 5.2%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli army said it bombed a cell of militants in the town of Tammun, south of Tubas, in the northern West Bank, according to Al Jazeera.
• Hamas leader said they asked for maps outlining the withdrawal process and the atmosphere pointing to an integrated deal to end the war in Gaza, according to Asharq News.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

OTHER

• North Korea confirmed Monday’s launch of a new hypersonic missile, while it was separately reported that North Korea plans to launch an ICBM before the Trump inauguration, according to Chosun Ilbo. In relevant news, South Korean acting President Choi said they are to respond sternly to North Korean provocation and that North Korea missile test poses a significant security threat.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Barclays UK December consumer spending was flat Y/Y compared to December 2023.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.1% (Prev. -3.4%)
• UK BRC Total Sales YY (Dec) 3.2% (Prev. -3.3%)

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

North Korea Launches Suspected Hypersonic Ballistic Missile In 1st Test Of 2025

Monday, Jan 06, 2025 – 07:40 PM

North Korea has for the past several months been ramping up missile tests, but on Monday Pyongyang launched a suspected hypersonic missile in its first such test-fire of 2025.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) indicated it traveled approximately 1,100km (some 690 miles) into the East Sea after being launched at around 12 noon. This would be enough to reach US Pacific bases in locations like Guam.

The timing appeared intent on sending a message, given that at that moment US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Seoul holding meetings with South Korean leadership amid an ongoing political crisis.

While the JCS noted the rocket flew a shorter distance than is normal of intermediate-range ballistic missile, they said it was a suspected hypersonic, meaning it is so fast as to be difficult for modern defenses to intercept.

Newsweek provides more of the regional context as follows:

Monday’s launch was North Korea’s first since it fired a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles toward a similar area in November, just days ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Pyongyang’s first test-fire of 2025 came as Blinken, America’s top diplomat, met with South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok. Choi assumed the interim role after the South Korean Parliament voted to impeach a second president in two weeks.

At a press conference later the same day, Blinken said Russia was likely providing North Korea with advanced satellite technology in exchange for Kim’s dispatch of elite troops to the Ukraine war.

Blinken addressed the new launch during a press conference in Seoul, saying “Today’s launch is just a reminder to all of us of how important our collaborative work is.”

As for South Korea, an official foreign ministry statement said the missile launch “constitutes a clear violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and poses a serious threat to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the international community.”

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1876282870840340537

Pyongyang has been seen as engaged in heightened nuclear saber-rattling over the last year, especially following the US decision to at times park a nuclear submarine at South Korean port. The north has also frequently condemned joint US-South Korean military drills, which it denounces as “invasion rehearsals”.

Seoul and the West at this point are deeply worried that the north could renew banned nuclear tests. The last known North Korean nuclear test was in 2017.

end

3C JAPAN

end

3D. CHINA/Taiwan

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

EU/SYRIA

end

GERMANY

Nearly half of Syrians living in Germany are unemployed. This may lead to a revolt by the Syrians

(Watson)

Germany Signals Re-Migration Program For Unintegrated Migrants

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Governing German authorities are suggesting unintegrated migrants from Syria could be sent home if they are not in employment, a policy that could mean re-migration for nearly half a million people.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser suggested during an interview with Funke Media Group that Syrian refugees could have their protections revoked if they didn’t fulfil certain residency criteria.

“As our law stipulates, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) will review and revoke protection grants if people no longer need this protection in Germany because the situation in Syria has stabilized,” Faeser said.

“This will then apply to those who do not have a right of residence for other reasons such as work or training and who do not return to Syria voluntarily.”

Given federal data which revealed that nearly half of the 975,000 Syrians living in Germany remain dependent on state welfare benefits, any policy change could impact large numbers of migrants living in the country.

“As of August 2024, 518,050 Syrians were receiving these benefits. While some have successfully entered the job market, only 32.7 percent are employed in positions subject to social insurance contributions, compared to 65.3 percent of Germans, despite the Syrian population in the country being considerably younger on average than Germans,” reports Remix News.

Faeser added that criminals and extremists should be deported as soon as possible but that Syrians who have learned the language, found employment and settled into communities should be allowed to stay.

The new policy is likely designed to suppress support for the anti-mass migration AfD party ahead of federal elections set to take place next month.

Germany’s embrace of mass migration over the last decade has largely been a disaster for security and social cohesion.

Despite comprising roughly 14.6 per cent of the population, foreign migrants were responsible for 58.5 per cent of all violent crimes.

Foreigners without a German passport make up 111,517 suspects alleged of violent crimes out of the total 190,605 suspects for the country as a whole.

The statistics were released by the Federal Criminal Police Office and reported by broadcaster NTV.

END

GERMANY

Germany is certainly frightened by the right AfD party

(remix)

Germany’s Gun-Grab? Saxony-Anhalt Begins Disarming AfD Members

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 02:00 AM

Via Remix News,

Authorities in Germany have begun withdrawing gun ownership licenses from Alternative for Germany (AfD) members, who are deemed a “danger to public safety.”

So far, five AfD members have received a notice that their gun license would be revoked, while another member voluntarily returned his license after a revocation procedure was initiated. Another 51 cases are currently being examined by authorities, according to data released by the Saxony-Anhalt Interior Ministry in response to a request for information from the Left Party.

Hunters and sport shooters will also have their gun licenses canceled by authorities. In total, there are 74 members of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt that hold a firearms license, with 49 registered as sport shooters and 25 as hunters.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1787484137600733207

The revocation of gun licenses comes after the Office of the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s powerful domestic intelligence agency, classified the AfD as “certainly right-wing extremist.” With this designation, AfD members suddenly faced a litany of problems. For one, authorities could spy on their communications without any warrant; however, authorities could also seize their firearms, and members could also face issues with government employment.

The efforts to disarm AfD members won praise from the Left Party’s parliamentary group leader Eva von Angern.

“The first revocation notices show that, after individual examination, these people pose a threat to public safety,” she said to German news outlet Mitteldeutsche Zeitung.

https://twitter.com/RMXnews/status/1835687116098920478?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1835687116098920478%

As Remix News has reported in the past, the BfV has also been active designating the AfD as an extremist threat in other states such as North Rhine-Westphalia, where gun owners are also under threat of having their firearms taken away from them.

The BfV is a highly politicized intelligence agency targeting domestic “threats” to the constitutional order, while critics contend it is designed to snuff out political opposition. The agency is currently monitoring AfD members in a number of states, including tapping their phones and surveilling their internet communications, all without a warrant. Currently, their membership in the party offers enough legal grounds to target what is the second-largest party in the country.

In 2023, the Gera Administrative Court ruled that the Thuringian Ministry of the Interior cannot revoke firearms licenses of AfD members in a blanket measure; however, it left the door open for individual cases.

https://twitter.com/RMXnews/status/1806286955912552516?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E180628695591255

Read more here…

SWITZERLAND

should have happened years ago

\(ArmstrongEconomics)

Swiss Burqa Ban Begins

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 03:30 AM

Via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

Switzerland enacted a law at the start of the year that prohibits anyone from wearing burqa coverings in public.

The Swiss people voted in favor of the ban four years ago but were met with backlash from the current government who called the ruling racist.

Yet, Swiss law requires the government to adhere to referendums and the government was overpowered by the people.

Swiss People’s Party (SVP) introduced the initial legislation, and while they did not directly call out Islam, they called full facial coverings a form of “soft extremism.”

Amnesty International called the ban “a dangerous policy that violates women’s rights, including to freedom of expression and religion.”

It is astounding that women’s rights are considered just in this manner.

Switzerland is not the first or last nation to ban burqas.

Belgium and France were the first nations in Europe to implement bans back in 2011, followed by Bulgaria in 2016.

China and Austria implemented bans in 2017, Denmark in 2018, and Sri Lanka in 2019.

People may dress as they wish in places of worship, but it is now forbidden in public places.

You could not enter a store with a ski mask, for example, and countless places will not even permit people to tint their car windows.

Women would not travel to Islamic nations and flaunt a revealing outfit.

Similarly, the existing culture should remain in place without wavering to the whims of newcomers.

Personally, I do not find the 1,000 franc fine to be racist.

Nations throughout the world, especially those with open border policies, are fighting to maintain their own culture.

UK

Migrants 3.5 Times More Likely To Be Arrested For Sex Crimes In UK Than British Citizens

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

New figures released by the UK government have revealed that foreign nationals are twice as likely to be arrested for crimes compared to British citizens, and 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sexual offences.

The statistics were compiled by the Centre for Migration Control using data from police forces, the Home Office and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

“Foreigners were 3.5 times as likely to be arrested for sex offences as British suspects, based on a rate of nearly 165 arrests per 100,000 of the migrant population against 48 per 100,000 for Britons,” reports the Telegraph.

Over a quarter (26.1 per cent) of arrests for sexual offences in the first 10 months of last year were foreign migrants, who make up around 9 per cent of the population.

https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1876029261363990752

For all crimes, foreign nationals accounted for 16.1 per cent of the total number of arrests, twice the rate of British natives.

Some regions of the UK are experiencing even more alarming rates of migrant crime, including in the City of London where two-thirds (66.9 per cent) of sex crime arrests were of foreign nationals and in Derbyshire, where 44.8 per cent of sex offence suspects were migrants.

Out of the 48 nationalities with a higher arrest rate than British citizens, Albanians, Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalians topped the crime league table.

The figures are likely to be substantially higher and more concerning if individuals with a migration background were taken into account.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1876158836287127984

The statistics were released amidst a controversy over the cover-up of Muslim grooming gangs in the UK, with the Labour government refusing to approve a new inquiry and the issue being repeatedly highlighted by Elon Musk.

Other European countries with higher foreign populations than the UK have experienced even worse outcomes thanks to enforced diversity, with over half of crimes in Germany being committed by migrants.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1876192194270568934

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

END

UK/USA/MUSK

Musk is right! Starmer is out of his mind!

(Watson)

UK-US ‘Special Relationship’ Under Threat Due To Musk’s “Incendiary” Rhetoric On Grooming Gangs; BBC Claims

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 09:25 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

According to the BBC, the Labour government believes the ‘special relationship’ between Britain and the United States is under threat if Donald Trump backs Elon Musk’s ‘incendiary’ rhetoric about grooming gangs operating in the UK.

Musk has been vocal on X over the past week concerning the grooming gang scandal, which was covered up by the Labour government from the 90’s onwards for a period of over a decade.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer accused Musk and British politicians who support his call for justice for victims of grooming gangs of jumping on a “far-right bandwagon.”

According to BBC Newsnight, there is “absolute horror at the highest levels of government at the incendiary language we have seen from Elon Musk.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1876420404065288372

Apparently, there’s little ‘horror’ at the industrial-scale grooming and rape of young white girls by Muslim men, and the biggest outrage is directed at Elon Musk for daring to talk about it.

“And there’s going to be…a hard headed assessment – is this just the view of Elon Musk or is it the view of the wider administration and the incoming president Donald Trump,” said a BBC Newsnight reporter.

He added that if Trump shares Elon Musk’s view that grooming gangs are terrible and that there (God forbid) needs to be a new inquiry and actual action taken on the issue, “Then there may be some very serious questions about the nature of our ongoing security partnership with the United States.”

The reporter went on to suggest that the idea of the UK sharing high level ‘five eyes’ intelligence with the United States was in jeopardy “if this sort of stuff is endorsed by the president of the United States – the answer to that question – does Trump agree with this – don’t know that one yet.”

The narrative here is patently absurd.

Does Trump agree with Musk that Muslim grooming gangs getting away with heinous sex crimes against women and girls by either being completely ignored or given light prison sentences is wrong?

Does he think the decision by safeguarding minister Jess Phillips to block a public inquiry into the Oldham grooming gangs was wrong?

Almost certainly yes.

The notion that this would threaten the UK’s alliance with the United States says more about the Labour government than it does Elon Musk or Donald Trump.

As the Telegraph reported, the grooming gangs scandal was “covered up” by the Labour government because and, “The child victims of rape were denied justice and protection from the state to preserve the image of a successful multicultural society.”

Authorities deliberately avoided investigating the perpetrators in some instances because they thought it would inflame tensions within the Asian community and be “politically incorrect.”

END

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL HAMAS /USA

Trump reiterates: ‘If the hostages aren’t released by the time I take office, there will be hell’

Trump added: “I am Israel’s best friend. I moved the embassy to Jerusalem—everything was good, including the Abraham Accords, and every major positive event in Israel recently was because of me.

By AMICHAI STEINJANUARY 6, 2025 18:10Updated: JANUARY 6, 2025 21:38

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-836324&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241230_a06cac7f5f0f5dd1a272229e3fc351b678f1266f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

President-elect Donald Trump, when asked about his warning that “there will be hell if the hostages aren’t released by his inauguration,” responded, “That is exactly what I meant. If the hostages are not released by the time I take office, there will be hell—no ‘don’t,’ there will be hell. They need to be released now.”

The President-elect made the statements on the Hugh Hewitt Podcast on Monday.

Trump added, “I am Israel’s best friend. I moved the embassy to Jerusalem—everything was good, including the Abraham Accords, and every major positive event in Israel recently was because of me. I must also note that I support peace—now is the time.”

Trump’s “don’t” comment appears to be a jab at US President Joe Biden, who warned other actors in the region who were thinking of attacking Israel shortly after October 7. “To anyone thinking of taking advantage of the situation, I have one word: ‘Don’t,'” Biden said from Israel on October 10, 2023.

Trump initially made his “hell to pay’ comment in a post on Truth Social on December 2, 2024. He made the statement after the IDF’s confirmation that Hamas killed American-Israeli Omer Neutra on October 7 and has held his body hostage since. 

“Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” Trump wrote in December.

Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the “long and storied History of the United States of America,” Trump said.

“RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!” he concluded.

A list of the hostages 

The Saudi news outlet A-Sharq published on Monday a list of what it claims to be the 34 hostages listed to be released in the first stage of a potential hostage deal.

---

Hannah Sarisohn and Joanie Margulies contributed to this report.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS/NORTH GAZA BEIT HANOUN//LATE MORNING

‘Over 300 terrorists eliminated’: Kfir Brigade finishes nearly three-month north Gaza op.

Over the course of three months, the Kfir Brigade eliminated numerous terrorists, destroyed tunnels, and located weapons.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, AVI ASHKENAZIJANUARY 7, 2025 16:54

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-836496&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241230_a06cac7f5f0f5dd1a272229e3fc351b678f1266f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

During its nearly three months of combat in northern Gaza, the Kfir Brigade, under the command of Division 162, destroyed tunnels, located weapons, and eliminated numerous terrorists, including some who partook in the October 7 massacre, the IDF announced on Tuesday after the brigade concluded its operations in the area. 

The terrorists eliminated by the brigade were killed both in close-quarters combat encounters and in strikes conducted in coordination with the Israeli air force. 

The soldiers mainly operated in Beit Lahieh and Beit Hanoun. 

According to the brigade, they destroyed Hamas’s Beit Lahieh Battalion.

“We operated for sixty four days in northern Gaza. Sixty four days of operating without breaks or rotations. We worked to destroy Hamas above and below ground,” Kfir Brigade sources said. “We eliminated over 300 terrorists, including senior operatives who caused a lot of trouble. We paid a very heavy price in the fighting. In six incidents, we lost 12 soldiers and commanders. We had dozens of wounded, some of whom have already returned to combat.”

In late December, the Kfir Brigade destroyed three tunnel routes in Beit Lahieh that, when combined, ran a length of 7.5 kilometers.

Within these tunnels, soldiers found military equipment that Hamas terrorists captured on October 7, 2023. They also discovered maps of Israeli communities bordering Gaza.

In November alone, the brigade neutralized dozens of terrorists and dismantled over one hundred Hamas structures.

Terror tactics witnessed by the Kfir Brigade

Explaining terror tactics the Kfir Brigade has seen in northern Gaza, an officer who led operations in Beit Hanoun told Maariv in a Saturday interview, “They’ve taken off their uniforms and are walking around like innocent civilians. They move from building to building. In each structure, weapons are waiting for them to fire at IDF troops. Immediately after firing, they stash the weapons and leave, posing again as unarmed civilians.” 

The Kfir Brigade has been operating in Gaza, southern Lebanon and has conducted counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank since Israel’s multi-front war began in October 2023. 

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS/

Return of residents to north Gaza agreed by negotiators as talks progress – report

Senior Israeli officials reported significant difficulties in the talks’ progress, claiming that Hamas had backed away from previous agreements on several issues, including ending the war.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 6, 2025 23:50Updated: JANUARY 7, 2025 01:16

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-836373&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241230_a06cac7f5f0f5dd1a272229e3fc351b678f1266f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Negotiators at Doha have agreed upon an outline of the return of residents to northern Gaza, N12 reported on Monday.

Men, women, and children will be permitted to return to the North from the southern Gaza Strip after passing inspections at the Netzarim corridor, which bisects the territory, according to the agreement.

This is considered a significant concession for the government, which sought to prevent Hamas from reconsolidating its control over the area.

Inspections at the Netzarim corridor will be monitored by “external international entities,” according to the report.

Senior Israeli officials told N12 that there were significant difficulties in the talks’ progress, claiming that Hamas had backed away from previous agreements on several issues, including ending the war.

The report noted that the difficulty in negotiations led to Mossad Chief David Barnea delaying his trip to Doha.

Muhammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s brother, has been reportedly attempting to negotiate more concessions with the Israelis.

More progress to be made

Israel has been insisting on a significant release of living hostages. However, Hamas has been unclear about which hostages are still alive.

Sources familiar with the details expressed cautious optimism, saying that all signs indicate that Hamas is interested in a deal. The mediators have also said they have seen encouraging signals.

They claim that not only the Hamas leadership abroad but also those within the Gaza Strip want to reach an agreement, likely due to Israel’s increased military pressure.

END

ISRAEL/GAZA/HAMAS/KHAN YOUNIS/NORTH GAZA

(Times of Israel)

IDF strikes Hamas members in Gaza humanitarian zone; senior PIJ commander killed

Army says company commander in terror group took part in Oct. 7 attack; Gazans report 23 killed in day of strikes

By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and Agencies5 January 2025, 11:40 p

The sun sets over a tent camp for displaced Palestinians in the central Gaza Strip town of Khan Younis, January 1, 2025. (AP Photo/ Abdel Kareem Hana)

A pair of Israeli drone strikes hit Hamas operatives inside the Gaza Strip’s designated humanitarian zone, the Israel Defense Forces said Sunday.

The strikes came after a weekend of intense Israeli bombing of terror targets in the Palestinian coastal enclave that, according to unverified reports from officials in the Hamas-controlled territory, killed over 80 people.

A drone strike was carried out against a group of Hamas operatives at a command center in the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza, the IDF said. The compound, in the Khan Younis area of the humanitarian zone, was used by the Hamas operatives to plan and carry out attacks against troops in Gaza and against Israel, the military said.

Gaza medics said the compound was a police station and that five people were killed. Last week, Hamas said the IDF killed its chief of police and his deputy in a strike also in the zone.

The IDF said a separate strike in the Deir al-Balah area of the humanitarian zone targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative who had carried out previous attacks from the area.

In both strikes, the IDF said it took steps to mitigate civilian harm. Israel accuses Hamas of exploiting civilian shelters, civilian buildings, and the civilian population as human shields.

Palestinians people killed in Israeli bombing in the Gaza Strip, at the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah, January 5, 2025. (Abdel Kareem Hana/AP)

The humanitarian zone is located in the al-Mawasi area on the southern Strip’s coast, the western neighborhoods of Khan Younis, and central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah.

The size of the zone has changed multiple times, amid evolving IDF operations against the Hamas terror group.

The IDF also reported that a Palestinian Islamic Jihad company commander who participated in the October 7, 2023, onslaught in Israel was killed by troops during recent operations in northern Gaza’s Jabalia.

According to the military, Saad Said Zaki Dahnon, who was also deputy head of the terror group’s rocket division in northern Gaza, was killed in a close-quarters battle with troops of the Givati Brigade.

Dahnon had infiltrated Israel and participated in the October 7 attack, and was also involved in several attacks against troops in the Beit Lahiya area during the war, the IDF said.

A video released by the IDF showed Dahnon and another operative covering themselves in blankets and attempting to approach troops under the cover of darkness and rainy weather. The IDF said Dahnon was killed, while the second operative surrendered to troops.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-strikes-hamas-members-in-gaza-humanitarian-zone-senior-pij-commander-killed

https://customer-b1ezbl4fz7l5vj5n.cloudflarestream.com/36fbaff15a120c3241d622fd4b293e4d/iframe

The second operative was carrying an explosive device, and he was taken to Israel for further interrogation, the IDF added.

Meanwhile, a soldier in the Givati Brigade’s Tzabar battalion was seriously wounded in the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday. According to an IDF probe, the soldier was injured when a brick fell on his head during “operational activity.” He was taken to a hospital in Israel for treatment.

Rescuers in the Hamas-controlled Strip said that at least 23 people were killed in strikes on Sunday. The figures, which cannot be verified, do not differentiate between combatants and civilians.

An air strike on a house in northern Gaza’s Sheikh Radwan area killed at least 11 people according to the Hamas-run Civil Defense agency’s spokesman Mahmud Bassal. He said the victims included women and children.

“Rescuers are still searching for five people trapped under the rubble of the house,” he said, adding his crew members were using “bare hands” in the effort.

The Palestinian Authority’s official news agency WAFA later reported that a young girl was rescued from the rubble of the building.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1875797768989765742

Health officials also said an airstrike killed five people in a house in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, while another airstrike killed four others in Jabalia in the northern edge of the enclave, where Israeli forces have been operating for three months.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry said a total of 88 people were killed over the previous 24 hours.

The IDF said over 100 targets were struck in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, killing dozens of Hamas operatives. The strikes were carried out by the Israeli Air Force in a joint effort with the Southern Command, following intelligence provided by the Military Intelligence Directorate and the Shin Bet security agency.

Additionally, the IDF said it struck several rocket-launching sites in Gaza over the weekend.

Rockets are found by IDF troops in southern Gaza’s Rafah, in a handout photo issued on January 1, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)

Renewed fire from Gaza has repeatedly triggered air raid sirens in Israeli communities near the Strip in recent days. Rocket fire had become less frequent as the war dragged on but has intensified since late December as Israel continues a three-month major land and air offensive in the territory’s north.

The recent escalation coincides with ongoing indirect negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal that has eluded the sides since November 2023.

Mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have tried for months to strike a deal to end the war and secure the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza. The latest effort comes just days before Donald Trump takes office as US president on January 20.

Kan cited a Palestinian source familiar with the developments as saying the next two days are critical, and that there is a preference to reach a partial deal rather than a full agreement, with Hamas fearing the situation could change once Trump is installed. The Republican, who has backed Israel in the war, has repeatedly warned of serious consequences if the hostages are not released by his inauguration.

Israelis attend a protest calling for the release of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, January 4, 2025. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, in an interview with RTL radio, said that “we continue to exert the necessary pressure” to reach a deal. “Unfortunately, it doesn’t depend only on us.”

The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 45,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle as of November and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.

Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques.

It is believed that 96 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.

Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 38 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.

Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.

YEMEN TERRORISTS/ISRAEL/USA

by far, the worst President of the uSA

(Margolis)

Biden Releases Gitmo Terrorists To Oman

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 08:15 AM

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media,

In yet another move to tarnish his presidential legacy while channeling his former boss Barack Obama, Joe Biden has authorized the transfer of 11 Gitmo terrorists to Oman. The Middle Eastern nation has agreed to assist with their resettlement and oversee security monitoring.

We’ve seen this before and we know how it usually turns out.

“The United States appreciates the willingness of the government of Oman and other partners to support ongoing U.S. efforts focused on responsibly reducing the detainee population and ultimately closing the Guantanamo Bay facility,” the Department of Defense said in a statement. This transfer leaves a mere 15 detainees at Gitmo.

“In recent weeks, the Pentagon had transferred out four other detainees from Guantanamo including a detainee who was brought to the detention facility at the base in Cuba the day that it opened, but was never charged,” ABC News reports. 

The transfer of the 11 Yemeni detainees is the largest transfer to take place under President Joe Biden’s administration.

Of the remaining 15 detainees still at Guantanamo Bay, three are eligible for transfer; three are eligible for a Periodic Review Board; seven are involved in the military commissions process; and two detainees have been convicted and sentenced by military commissions.

Among the detainees who will remain at Guantanamo is Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attack, who on Friday will appear at a hearing at the base where he is expected to plead guilty in return for the death penalty being withdrawn. The following week, two other 9/11 plotters are expected to plead guilty under the same plea agreement.

A statement from the Pentagon revealed that on September 15, 2023, Austin officially notified Congress of his plans to transfer the 11 Yemeni detainees to Oman. In coordination with Omani authorities, all necessary preparations for the transfer were successfully carried out.

This news comes on the heels of a military appeals court upholding the decision that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin could not undo the plea agreements made with Mohammad, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak bin ’Attash, and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al Hawsawi.

According to NPR, “Monday’s transfers were originally scheduled to happen in October 2023, but were halted at the last minute due to concerns in Congress about instability in the Middle East following the Hamas attack on Israel.“

However, the fact that the plan was “resurrected during President Biden’s final two weeks in office signals a last-ditch effort by his administration to shrink Guantánamo’s prisoner population and get closer to his goal of trying to close the facility.”

We’ve seen this story unfold time and time again, and we can all make a pretty good guess as to how this will play out. Each one of these terrorists will inevitably return to the battlefield, further endangering American lives and destabilizing the region. So why, after nearly four years in office, is Joe Biden making this decision now? Why didn’t he act sooner—perhaps when he first took office or before the 2024 election? The answer is painfully clear: this is a move designed to please the radical left, a political gesture with little regard for national security. 

end

LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL

LEBANON/ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

ISRAEL/WEST BANK/

Settlers burn cars, ransack West Bank homes in terror attack ‘price tag’

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 6, 2025 22:18Updated: JANUARY 6, 2025 22:27

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-836365&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241230_a06cac7f5f0f5dd1a272229e3fc351b678f1266f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Dozens of settlers entered the village of Haja, near the village of Funduk, where the terror attack took place on Monday morning in West Bank, Army Radio reported Monday evening.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1876355925977772276

The Israelis who entered the village set fire to two vehicles and smashed the windows of houses

TIMES OF ISRAEL

SAME STORY AS ABOVE

Settlers said to rampage through Palestinian villages after terror shooting

Footage from several towns shows cars going up in flames, with army accused of inaction

A fire is seen in the West Bank village of Hajja, allegedly after an arson attack by Jewish settlers, January 7, 2025 (X video screenshot; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

Settlers rampaged through several Palestinian villages throughout the West Bank after a deadly shooting attack that killed three Israelis on Monday morning, the Yesh Din rights groups reports.

Targeted Palestinian towns included al-Funduq — where the suspects in the shooting attack were from — Hajja, Turmusaya and Immatain, Yesh Din says.

Footage from several of those towns shows cars doused by settlers going up in flames.

“Once again, the army is doing nothing to prevent settler violence. This time, too, the writing was on the wall, and notices calling for riots in the villages were distributed publicly among settlers. This is what the Wild West looks like,” says Yesh Din.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1876353876544110757

Indeed, rights groups had publicized the messages posted on far-right Israeli social media groups calling on members to join in on rampages later today aimed at “erasing al-Funduq.” While the rights groups had called on authorities to take preventative actions, it does not appear that any were taken.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1876403374192832777

END

.IAF strikes squad of armed terrorist in the northern West Bank

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 7, 2025 02:49

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-836380&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241230_a06cac7f5f0f5dd1a272229e3fc351b678f1266f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IAF struck a squad of armed terrorists that were operating in the Tammun area in the northern West Bank, the IDF announced early Tuesday morning.

The strike was conducted by the IDF’s 417th Brigade.

This is a developing story.

END

ISRAEL/

OPERATION JACK SPARROW;

Your Taxes: Pirates of the Mediterranean

An operation by the Israeli Police and Israeli Tax Authority lasted over years and exposed tax evasion and money laundering running into nearly one hundred million Shekels.

By LEON HARRISJANUARY 6, 2025 22:50

Massive smuggling and corruption have been uncovered at Ashdod Port in a covert operation of the Israeli Police and Israeli Tax Authority.

The operation lasted over years and exposed tax evasion and money laundering running into nearly one hundred million Shekels. The pirates of the Mediterranean have now been rounded up and criminal proceedings are under way.

Captain Jack Sparrow

How did they do it? It was all thanks to an undercover agent nicknamed “Jack Sparrow”. We are reliably informed by Wikipedia that the original Captain Jack Sparrow was a fictional character played by Johnny Depp in the Pirates of the Caribbean movie series in 2003-2017. Sparrow represented an ethical pirate with Captain Barbossa as his corrupt foil, though both characters are viewed as both light and dark tricksters.

According to the production notes, Jack Sparrow’s true motives usually remain masked and whether he is honorable or evil depends on the audience’s perspective.

From the Caribbean to the Mediterranean

Fast forward to the pirates of the Mediterranean at the Israeli port of Ashdod in 2020. It seemed those pirates were smuggling large quantities of goods into Israel. In order to found out what was going on, a rookie newly recruited cop newly was trained and put on duty in the Israeli Customs division in the cargo area of the Ashdod port. He was “Jack Sparrow”https://cic-jpost-embed.firebaseapp.com/v2

Over the years, this modern day “Jack Sparrow” inspected shipments and got acquainted with importers across Israel and the West Bank and the customs release agents serving them.

These people had a hand in smuggling and some had criminal underworld connections. Their requests to Jack Sparrow came thick and fast once he gained their confidence.

They asked him to help by looking the other way when inspecting containers and confirming that their contents matched customs import declarations for customs duty purposes.

Bribes totaling of hundreds of thousands of shekels changed hands. Some bribes went to “Jack Sparrow”, other bribes went to dirty customs officials and transport ministry officials who were eventually rounded up

How to be devious

Creative ways were used to smuggle in items. For example, tobacco products were hidden in dolls. Fakes of expensive brand clothing items were hidden among other cheap items of clothing and expensive car parts in cars not approved by the Transport Ministry.

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Weapons and ammunition were stashed away in rolled up carpets. Smaller weapon parts were concealed in crates of screws and machinery.

Big quantities of cosmetics not approved by the Health Ministry were concealed in barrels of pickled cucumbers. Also smuggled in were large quantities of dangerous drugs, various fake replicas of items, toys and other baby products not approved by the Standards Institute.

Security services in the South and central Israel were tipped off about these irregular imports and the activities of “Jack Sparrow”. The total value of these smuggled items are estimated at billions of Shekels.

Enough is enough

After four and a half years there was enough evidence against the criminal gangs suspected of involvement in smuggling and distributing these items across Israel. So the undercover operation was brought to an end and hundreds of security personnel took action including Police, tactical Border Police, sniffer dogs and the IDF.

They entered the homes of dozens of suspects, and arrested and searched them. They also seized documents, cash and property suspected of being acquired with the ill gotten gains.

Alleged offenses were then investigated, including money laundering, bribing state officials, smuggling contraband and other crimes. These criminal proceedings are still under way.

end

ISRAEL.// TURKEY

Erdogan’s policies in Syria bring Turkey and Israel closer to confrontation

With Erdogan’s anti-Israel stance and rival interests in Syria, experts warn of a potential unprecedented confrontation amid ongoing regional instability.

By KEREN SETTON/THE MEDIA LINEJANUARY 5, 2025 20:25Updated: JANUARY 6, 2025 21:20

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Finternational%2Farticle-836211&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241230_a06cac7f5f0f5dd1a272229e3fc351b678f1266f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The tumultuous relationship between Israel and Turkey is heading for more turbulence as recent developments in Syria pitch the two countries against each other in what has the potential of developing into a direct armed confrontation.

For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org

On Wednesday, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against Israel in Istanbul, expressing solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza after almost a year and a half of a bloody war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led Turkish anti-Israeli sentiment for years.

The war, which began with a surprise offensive by Hamas on the 7th of October, 2023, evolved into a larger regional war involving multiple fronts and changing the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Turkey has been at odds with Israel in the past, during previous confrontations it has had with Hamas. This time was different.

“Erdogan thought this war was just another round of violence,” Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey from the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line. “But after a few weeks, he realized Israel was waging an all-out war on Hamas. Erdogan, who is deeply influenced by the same Muslim Brotherhood ideology as Hamas, began to deteriorate the relationship with Israel.”

In one of the latest dramatic developments, the fall of the Bashar Assad regime last month has put the autonomy of US-backed Kurdish groups in Syria in question, as the Islamist rebels who overthrew Assad and are backed by Turkey threaten their territories. Israel has maintained covert relations with the Kurds throughout the years, seeing them as a possible ally against shared enemies.

Turkey is looking to further cement its influence in Syria, which shares a border with Israel. For years, despite being officially at war, the border was one of Israel’s quietest. Now, as Turkey inches closer to Israel geographically, this quiet could be interrupted.

“There is a chance of a future military confrontation between Israel and Turkey,” Prof. Efrat Aviv, an expert on Turkey from Bar-Ilan’s Department of General History and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “This is unprecedented, as are all events witnessed in the region recently.”

Relations between Israel and Turkey

Relations thawed in 2017, but the cordiality didn’t last long.

In 2018, both sides recalled their ambassadors when tensions over the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem caused a rift between the two countries.

Afterward, another attempt to mend the relationship included President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Ankara in 2022.

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Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza has led Erdogan to announce he was severing all ties with the Jewish state after both sides announced mutual trade barriers on each other in April of last year. Turkey also joined the South African petition accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) last year. Throughout the war, Ankara has supplied Palestinians in Gaza with tons of humanitarian aid.

Tourism, a major facet of the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel, has also almost disappeared. Once a top destination for Israelis, it is no longer. There are currently no direct flights between the countries, a route that was once one of the most frequent departing from Israel.

The latest developments in Syria, which have essentially left the country up for grabs, have Turkey and Israel both putting boots on the ground, each in different areas.

“Turkey is very adamant about its interests in Syria, and Erdogan wants to cement his influence there, aiming for the new government there to be under his sponsorship,” said Aviv. “This includes massive investment, including in Kurdish areas, in order for the Syrian society to be pro-Turkish. Turkey wants to completely quash Kurdish independence aspirations.”

While Israel has no official relations with the Kurdish minority in Syria or Turkey, it has maintained relations with the group as part of its interest to counter-balance Iranian influence in the region. This has often angered Turkey and Erdogan, who have hostile relations with the minority.

Erdogan and Netanyahu appear to be unable and unwilling to mend the relationship.

“As long as Erdogan is in power, nothing good will happen in the relationship, and it will only get worse. Even if he is replaced by a regime less critical of Israel, it will take time for the criticism towards Israel to decline,” said Aviv. “Turkish society will take time to change its toxic public opinion towards Israel as anti-Israeli and anti-Zionist sentiment in Turkey is very strong.”

Netanyahu supporters and his far-right government have also called for severing relations with Ankara.

But diplomatic relations are likely to remain.

“For Turkey, relations with Israel are important in order to retain access to the Palestinians both in Gaza and in the West Bank,” said Cohen Yanarocak. “For Israel, which is surrounded by enemies, it doesn’t need another enemy.”

A military confrontation between Turkey and Israel would be unprecedented, whether intentional or not. Israel, which is still in the midst of a war and fresh with the trauma of a shocking border assault by Hamas, has become less tolerant of the possibility of similar surprises on other borders.

While such a development would shock the region, it cannot be ruled out.

The option of Iranian proxies returning to its borders both in Lebanon and Syria is something Netanyahu and other officials have ruled out.

“Israel cannot allow Iran to be at its northern borders even at the cost of a confrontation with Turkey,” said Aviv. “Just as Turkey allowed itself to invade Syria, it cannot demand Israel to withdraw its forces from there, and Israel needs to protect its interests.”

ISRAEL/LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH

end

SYRIA/ISRAEL/USA

US Eases Restrictions For Syria In ‘Signal Of Goodwill’ To New Islamist Rulers

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 05:45 AM

Via The Cradle

The US is planning to announce an easing of restrictions on providing humanitarian aid and other basic services such as electricity to Syria while still keeping crushing economic sanctions on the country in place, Reuters reported on Monday.

Reuters noted the “decision by the outgoing Biden administration will send a signal of goodwill to Syria’s new Islamist rulers and aims to pave the way for improving tough living conditions in the war-ravaged country while treading cautiously and keeping US leverage in place.”

Syria’s new government, led by extremist militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is calling for the lifting of the US sanctions, which impoverished Syria and prevented reconstruction after the end of the Syria war in 2019.

Washington is so far refusing to lift sanctions, despite its longtime support for HTS and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani), a former deputy to slain ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Previously known as the Nusra Front, HTS was the official Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. The group enjoyed support from the US, Israel, Qatar, and Turkiye, which sought to use the group to topple the Syrian government led by former president Bashar al-Assad starting in 2011.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Biden administration approved the easing of restrictions over the weekend, saying the move authorizes the Treasury Department to issue waivers to aid groups and companies providing essentials such as water, electricity, and other humanitarian supplies.

The US-funded Syrian opposition group, the Syrian Emergency Task Force (SETF), and other Syrian activists lobbied heavily for the US to impose the sanctions, claiming they would only hurt Assad and other top Syrian officials, not Syrian civilians.

https://twitter.com/KevorkAlmassian/status/1875950487268425969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1

However, Syria expert Joshua Landis warned in Foreign Affairs in 2020 of the “pointless cruelty of Trump’s new Syria sanctions” while noting that in the 1990s, similar “US sanctions killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.”

The economic devastation wrought by the sanctions caused a new wave of Syrians to flee the country after 2020 despite the war having ended.

END

TURKEY/USA

Turkey Threatens US, Kurdish Proxies: ‘Matter Of Time’ Before Eliminated From Syria

Monday, Jan 06, 2025 – 06:00 PM

American and Turkish policies in Syria are increasingly clashing in the open in the wake of Assad’s ouster on December 8. As we detailed last week, the Pentagon is building a new base in the heart of Kurdish territory in northern Syria near the Turkish border (which the US has since denied, despite videos showing the military build-up).

This is a huge provocation to the Erdogan government, given the Turkish army and its proxies are at war with the US-backed Syrian Kurds. In fresh Monday statements, Turkey has put both the Kurds and by extension Washington on notice, saying it is only a “matter of time” before Kurdish militants are driven out of Syria.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that Turkey will not accept any future Syria with the YPG in it. The YPG makes up the core of the US-funded and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but Turkey sees it as but an extension of the outlawed PKK.

“We are in a position not only to see but also to break any kind of plot in the region,” Fidan told a press conference alongside his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi in Ankara.

“Conditions in Syria have changed. We believe it’s only a matter of time before the PKK/YPG is eliminated,” he said, calling on the group to lay down its arms “as soon as possible.”

“The PKK’s empire of violence built over Kurdish people is on the verge of collapsing,” he added, according to Turkish media. That’s when he indirectly addressed the United States, which has propped up the YPG for at least a half-decade at this point:

“If you (the West) have different aims in the region, if you want to serve another policy by using Daesh as an excuse to embolden the PKK, then there is no way for that either,” he said.

The Pentagon has long justified its troop presence in the northeast Syria as part of the ‘counter-ISIS’ mission, even though the Islamic State had been defeated long ago. At times US officials also talk about the ‘counter-Iran’ mission, which is less pressing now in the wake of Assad’s defeat.

Turkish media is meanwhile reporting that Jolani’s HTS government in Damascus, which is without doubt serving Turkey’s interests, has ordered the Syrian Kurds to immediately lay down their arms:

The interim Syrian government held talks with representatives of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), demanding that they disarm, Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

…Two meetings have taken place between the new Syrian authorities and representatives of the PKK, who reportedly sought recognition as a division or corps within the official Syrian army in exchange for disarmament. The new Syrian authorities did not accept any conditions, the Turkish newspaper said.

But the Kurds do have significant leverage, given they are directly supported by US special forces and aerial assets, and currently control almost all oil and gas fields in Syria.

The Kurds will likely settle for nothing less than clear autonomy and self-governance within a federated system if they are to be part of the Syrian state. As for Washington, it’s anything but clear what the end-game is for the US occupation. Another big looming questions is whether it will keep up the sanctions, which have brutalized the common populace in the region.

Trump during his first term in office expressed a desire to bring the troops home, and it remains uncertain whether he’ll try to see this through during this next term. He doesn’t take kindly to threats from Turkey, however.254

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia Achieves Major Battlefield Breakthrough In Eastern Ukraine As Trump Inauguration Nears

Monday, Jan 06, 2025 – 04:40 PM

Russia on Monday announced a key breakthrough in eastern Ukraine, saying its forces have captured the “important logistics hub” of Kurakhove, following months of steady gains.

Russian forces “have fully liberated the town of Kurakhove — the biggest settlement in southwestern Donbas,” the Defense Ministry (MoD) announced on Telegram.

The MoD claimed further that the Ukrainian army had lost more than 12,000 of the 15,000 troops deployed to defend Kurakhove, figures which are not independently verifiable. The military also said Ukraine lost about “3,000 pieces of various weapons and military hardware, including 40 tanks and other armored combat vehicles.”

The city has long been a strategic Ukrainian army stronghold in the Donetsk region, with an industrial zone and a (since shuttered) thermal plant and a reservoir. The city’s importance is also in its location, sitting on a central highway connecting eastern and southern Ukraine.

The fight for Kurakhove has been on since mid-October, during which time heavy shelling has persisted. The Russian MoD statement has additionally described Kurakhove as “a powerful fortified area with a developed network of pillboxes and underground communications.”

A Ukrainian military official has claimed the Russian victory declarations are premature. “As of this morning, battles were ongoing within [the city] limits, so the enemy’s announcements about capturing the city are clearly rushed,” a spokesman said.

However, there is some independent confirmation of the Russian breakthrough via Associated Press and other regional sources:

According to Meduza’s military analysts, Russian forces reached the center of Kurakhove in mid-December, encircling nearly the entire city from the north, east, and south, and raising the Russian flag over the municipal government headquarters. At the time, however, Ukrainian forces still controlled the power station’s industrial zone and the pipe plant on the western side of the city. Ukrainian troops were forced out of the industrial zone just before New Year’s day and are now holding positions in Dachne, a village on Kurakhove’s outskirts, Meduza’s analysts say. 

DeepState, an OSINT project with close ties to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, also shows that Russian forces have seized Kurakhove. This comes after Ukrainian analysts reported that Russian troops were advancing in the area on January 5. 

Overhead view of the war-ravaged city of Kurakhove:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1870469157948715159

Both warring sides have been seeking to achieve as much battlefield dominance as possible before Donald Trump takes office in two weeks. 

While Moscow was already in the driver’s seat, the capture of Kurakhove is being widely viewed as a decisive victory which will provide Russia with clear major leverage for any potential ceasefire negotiations under a new Trump administration.

Analyst Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment was quoted in AP as saying the future looks bleak for Kiev: “Ukraine is losing territory. The coldest part of the winter is yet ahead. The current theory of success is unclear, or what resources will be made available by the West in 2025,” he summarized.

And Washington Post writes, “Ukraine is in an increasingly dire state as Russia captures territory at the fastest pace since the start of the invasion, with Moscow capitalizing on its greatest advantage: manpower.”

Ukraine has in the past days launched a significant counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk territory, but this accomplishes little strategically where the main theatre of war is happening in Donetsk. Russia has been patiently seeking to gain back ground in the border territory, with the population still evacuated.

end

UKRAINE/FRANCE

This war was a total waste. Too many lives lost and too much money spent for no reason

(zerohedge)

Mass Desertions Plague Elite Ukrainian Brigade Trained By France

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 02:45 AM

Ukrainian and Western media reports are confirming that members of an elite Ukrainian brigade trained by French forces have deserted in alarming numbers, some before ever stepping foot into battle against Russia.

The 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Mechanized Brigade, currently deployed near Pokrovsk, has been plagued by desertions and lack of properly accounting for troops. Some sources have described “organizational chaos” in the Western-backed initiative. 

At least 50 members of the brigade actually went AWOL while training inside France. The brigade later was sent to the battlefield with numbers greatly depleted.

“About 1,700 soldiers from a Ukrainian unit equipped by the West and trained in France went AWOL before firing a shot,” The Telegraph writes. “At least 50 members of the new 155th mechanized brigade, one of the few to operate the Leopard 2 battle tank, disappeared while elements of the unit were being drilled in France.”

“By the time it entered battle for the first time, at least 1,700 of its troops went absent without leave at numerous points. Some 500 soldiers were still missing, it was reported as recently as November,” the report indicates further.

Originally the brigade was supposed to have about 5,800 troops, but less than 2,000 have gone through the French training program, with many unaccounted for.

Ukrainian military officials are admitting the problem, for example in the following regional media account:

Mykhailo Drapatyi, commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, acknowledged significant challenges within the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Mechanized Brigade, including high desertion rates and poor organization, during a Jan. 6 press conference.

“Of course, this is a negative lesson, a negative experience, but it should be converted into some kind of preventative action,” Drapatyi said.

Drapatyi acknowledged that fear and lack of combat experience are the main elements driving the desertions.

“There are many manifestations of unauthorized abandonment of military units, but there are also reasons for this,” he was cited in the Kyiv Independentas saying. “There is the fear of the personnel, and sometimes the lack of practical experience in combat operations.”

Organizational Chaos…

https://twitter.com/DaliaKingsley/status/1876327347403825170?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18763

But the 155th was supposed to be somewhat of an ‘elite’ brigade, and equipped with the best equipment. For months, however, there have been constant reports from the front lines of a steady Russian advance.

Significantly, The Washington Post has written this week that “Ukraine is in an increasingly dire state as Russia captures territory at the fastest pace since the start of the invasion, with Moscow capitalizing on its greatest advantage: manpower.”

end

RUSSIA

Robert H:

Oreshnik

First photo .. and NATO wants first hand experience?

Read this and ask why ?

As for the Zelensky bunch yesterday 5 drones were sent to hit the nuclear facility in Russian controlled Donbas .. to cause radiation to flow West so NATO can say it was an attack on Europe. And uncle Article 5
False flag events are an excuse to hang the the guilty and not an excuse to kill millions in a war.
Everyone knows Trump wants no part of war with Russia and the Neocons are desperate to get a war started …
If war comes Europe is lost in turmoil. Because attacking Russia means a hot war that will cause NATO to cease to exist .. every military base in Europe will be hit without exception..
a time to ask whether Oreshnik type missiles need to leave their mark ?

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

CATASTROPHIC BOMBSHELL UPDATE: 75 Australians Confirmed with SV40 Promoter DNA in their Bloodstream from “Vaccine” DNA “Contamination“

Why the surprise?
Gain of function research has always meant the integration of a new altered DNA.
Every time you get sick and immune system gets in, you alter the DNA to respond in the future. It is how people tell us that a problem one may have came from an ancestor who experienced a similar trait. Or why doctors always want to know how old your parents were when they died and of what.
While not exactly true because such altered or acquired variations can be changed, it is neither simple or wide spread.
It is why we hear about the “mysterious illness” which is balderdash because it is simply a result where an introduced virus altered DNA and people are getting ill as it changes. All viruses morph into new strains. The reality is those shots will have a lowered immune system and more likely catch the new strain.

https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/catastrophic-bombshell-update-75

END

GLOBAL ISSUES//

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Link

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

END

EVOLS NEWS

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Study of 9 Million Exposes ‘Devastating’ Neurological Damage Surge Among Covid-VaxxedAn explosive new study involving almost 9 million participants has exposed a devasted surge in deadly neurological and psychiatric damage among those who received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”READ MORE

Soccer Star Luca Meixner Dies Suddenly at 22German soccer star Luca Meixner has been found dead in his bed after reportedly dying “unexpectedly” in his sleep.READ MORE

New ‘Narco Tunnel’ from Mexico to American Soil Found in ArizonaAuthorities have discovered a “narco tunnel” near Yuma, Arizona which runs from Mexico, underneath the U.S. Southern Border.READ MORE

Multiple FBI Agents Trash Federal Agency’s Handling of NOLA Terrorist Attack: ‘This Is Embarrassing’Several FBI agents have spoken out to blast the federal agency’s handling of investigations into the New Orleans terrorist attack.READ MORE

Montana Supreme Court Refuses to Stop Operations at Power Plant over ‘Greenhouse Gas Emissions’Montana’s Supreme Court has refused to step in and halt operations at a power plant over claims from left-wing activists about the facility’s so-called “greenhouse gas emissions.”READ MORE

Biden Bans Cheaper Gas Water Heaters to Comply with Green Agenda, Severely Impacting Poor and Elderly AmericansIn the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s lame-duck presidency, the administration announced a ban on cheaper natural gas water heaters to comply with its “climate change” agenda.READ MORE

Kamala Harris Struggles to Recite Pledge of Allegiance on Senate Floor: ‘What an Embarrassment’Vice President Kamala Harris stumbled while reciting the Pledge of Allegiance on the Senate floor during the swearing-in ceremony as the 118th Congress convened.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0401 UP 18 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 157.75 UP 0.010 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2536 UP .0027 OR 27 PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4315 DOWN 0.0026 (CDN DOLLAR UP 26 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.72 PTS OR 0.71%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 240.71 PTS OR 1.22%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.31%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 240.71 PTS OR 1.22%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.72 PTS OR 0.71%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.31%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 776,25 OR 1.97%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2649.65

silver:$30.24

USA dollar index early TUESDAY  morning: 108.04 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS FROM  MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.917% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.121% UP 0 AND 9/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.116 DOWN 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.602 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4515 UP 0 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  TUES 

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0393 UP .0009 OR 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 157.81 UP 0.065 OR YEN IS DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6970 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0000 OR 0 BASIS pts  to 1.4331

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.3353 (ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3361)

TURKISH LIRA:  35.33 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.121

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from MONDAY at  4.614% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.870 UP 3 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.265 DOWN 1  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2645

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.04

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 4.38 pts or 0.05%

German Dax : UP 124.38 pts or 0.62% 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 43.66 pts or 0.59%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 3.70 PTS OR 0.03%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 158.09 PTS OR 0.45%

WTI Oil price  74,16 11 EST/

Brent Oil:  77,03 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  106.75 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  75/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4515 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6970 UP 3 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.298 UP 3 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.009 UP 1 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0344 DOWN 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR

British Pound: 1.2480 DOWN 0.0029 OR 129 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.6830 UP 8 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.121

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.77 UP 0.029 OR 3 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4363 UP 0022 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 22 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 74.28

Brent OIL:  77.03

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 4.689

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 4.909%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT  4.293

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.329 UP 6 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.030 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 108.46 UP 36 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.33 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  107.25 UP 0 AND  25/100 roubles

GOLD  2,647.70 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 30.02 (3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 178.20 PTS OR 0.42%

NASDAQ DOWN 384.66 PTS OR 1.78%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.27 UP 2.23 PTS OR 13.90%

GLD: $244.56 UP 1.37 OR 0.56%

SLV/ $27.33 UP .09 OR 0.33%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 59.43 PTS OR 0.24%

end

USA AFFAIRS

ZEROHEDGE HEADLINE:

Trump-nado & Inflation-Scare Spark Sell-Off In Bitcoin, Bonds, & Big-Tech

II USA DATA\

Rate-Cut Odds Plunge As ISM Services Inflation Index Surges Near 2-Year-High

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 10:10 AM

With ‘soft’ survey data trending lower (and PMIs mixed), analysts expected this morning’s ISM Services data to print higher (catching up to S&P Global’s PMI surge in December) and they were right.

ISM Services surged to 54.1 (from 52.1 prior and better than the 53.5 expected)

Source: Bloomberg

However, below the surface things are not so awesome as Prices Paid exploded from 58.2 to 64.4 and employment slipped to 51.4…

Source: Bloomberg

Producers remain challenged by a strong dollar, potential tariffs (Trump Effect) and general uncertainty from dockworkers’ contract negotiations that are set to resume Tuesday.

‘Inflation’ expectations are at their highest since Feb 2023 – The market is no longer pricing in a full cut by July…

… not at all what Powell and his pals want to see (or maybe it is).

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

The Age Of Debt And Monetary Destruction

Monday, Jan 06, 2025 – 08:55 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

If you want to really understand the current monetary system and the risks and opportunities it creates, you must read “The Age of Debt Bubbles.” This is a comprehensive, informed, and thorough analysis of the current global monetary system.

Book by Max Rangely:

Debt bloats the global economy. Spending and debt, rather than savings and prudent investment, form the foundation of economic development. This debt-based system, where sovereign debt is allegedly the safest asset and governments continue to stretch their solvency ratios, is constantly generating boom and bust cycles. Through a meticulous examination of historical data and trends, this book analyses the risks posed by the ever-expanding debt bubbles.

The book explains that debt has become a pervasive and inescapable feature of modern economies. The relentless pursuit of growth and profit with little equity involved has driven individuals, corporations, and governments to take on increasingly larger amounts of risk through indebtedness in exchange for lower returns, creating a fragile house of cards that is the root of all financial crises.

The Era of Increasing Debt Bubbles and Economic Instability: “An In-depth Analysis of Debt Crises, Asset Bubbles, and the Role of Monetary Policy” offers a thorough and exhaustive exploration of contemporary monetary policy, debt-fueled bubbles, and the economic consequences they entail.

There are two main sections in the book:

The first part delves deeply into elucidating the intricate process of money creation within contemporary economies while also scrutinising the formation of debt bubbles. Here are some key points to consider:

Banks create new money when making loans, expanding both sides of their balance sheet. Governments create new money through spending and borrowing. Banks need some capital to lend to the private economy. None is required to lend to money-printing governments. Even economists often misunderstand this process. Additionally, central bank reserves are not a constraint on bank lending; they are supplied on demand.

This process of constant monetary expansion to justify the accumulation of risk is often referred to as “liquidity injections,” as if it were a much-needed blood transfusion, when most of the time it simply disguises rising debt and risks built into the financial system. The current monetary system disguises its tendency to create boom-bust cycles with newly created currency.

This constant process of credit expansion can lead to malinvestment and economic distortions. Companies take increasing levels of debt to invest in businesses with fragile fundamentals, house prices rise well above affordability, credit card borrowing reaches all-time highs despite rising inflation and weaker real wage growth, and equity and bond valuations soar despite poor economic fundamentals… All these are manifestations of the risk of malinvestment and debt accumulation.

Part two features chapters from senior policymakers offering perspectives on debt bubbles and modern central banking.

Contributors include William White (former BIS official), Barbara Kolm (Austrian central bank VP), Lord Syed Kamall (former MEP), and Miguel Fernandez Ordoñez (former Bank of Spain Governor). Some of these contributors see the monetary system from a Keynesian perspective, giving the reader a balanced approach and different perspectives.

This essential work highlights how most textbooks and economists misunderstand the creation of money in modern economies. The book correctly criticises central bank policies, which seem more focused on perpetuating and disguising bubbles than preventing them. The manipulation of interest rates is one of the most dangerous factors. Central banks cut interest rates to encourage credit growth, and this always leads to distortions in the economy. Furthermore, when monetary policy creates inflation, policymakers increase rates, hurting the last recipients of money more severely.

Money creation is never neutral. It always disproportionately benefits the first recipient of new money, governments in particular, and negatively impacts the last recipients, real wages, and deposit savings. As such, the current monetary system is designed to penalise the most prudent savers and erode the purchasing power of the currency while rewarding excessive risk-taking and government fiscal irresponsibility.

In periods of monetary expansion, the size of government in the economy rises as adding debt is rewarded and regulation forces banks to consider government debt as a zero-risk asset. However, in periods of monetary contraction, the size of government in the economy also increases because almost the entire burden of interest rate hikes and liquidity contraction falls on the shoulders of families and small businesses.

The authors of this seminal work propose that the monetary policy framework of advanced countries requires fundamental reforms. They advocate for a system that shifts from an endless increase in reserves to a system of scarce reserves, akin to the gold standard. This would reduce central banks’ footprint in the economy and limit their effects on resource allocation. It is also crucial to limit the central banks’ links with government indebtedness to maintain independence, also reducing central bank balance sheets to maximise their ability to expand when truly needed. The authors also suggest that market forces should determine interest rates more than central bank policy, as malinvestment and asset bubbles primarily stem from artificially low interest rates.

“The Age of Debt Bubbles” is an essential contribution to the debate on monetary policy and financial stability. It challenges conventional wisdom and offers alternative perspectives on issues that affect all of us.

As Hayek said:

“the past instability of the market economy is the consequence of the exclusion of the most important regulator of the market mechanism, money, from itself being regulated by the market process.”.

This book is particularly timely because citizens are suffering persistent inflation after unprecedented central bank interventions, leading to all-time high asset prices but weaker real wage growth. If you want to understand money and why it matters to you, this is an essential read.

*  *  *

The Age of Debt Bubbles: An Analysis of Debt Crises, Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy (Professional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations) Springer-Verlag GmbH, 2024, is available in all good bookstores and online shops.

end

Popular Seattle “Safe Space” Waffle Shop Forced To Close Due To Inflation And New $20 Minimum Wage

Monday, Jan 06, 2025 – 06:50 PM

A waffle shop in Seattle is being forced to close down over the city’s new $20 per hour minimum wage law, according to a new report by the New York Post.

The owner of Bebop Waffle Shop said she was forced to close after the city’s new $20.76 minimum wage law took effect on New Year’s Day.

Owner Corina Luckenbach told the Post: 

“I’ve cried every day.”

Luckenbach, who founded Bebop over a decade ago after moving from New York to Seattle, said inflation-driven food costs and reduced foot traffic due to remote work had already strained her business. The minimum wage hike was the final blow.

“This is financially just not going to make sense anymore. Because, just for me, the increase would cost me $32,000 more a year,” she said. 

Luckenbach, who named the cafe after her late dachshund, said she supports higher wages in theory but couldn’t sustain the increase. Previously, large Seattle employers had a $18.69 minimum wage, while smaller ones had to meet $20.28 through tips or benefits, the Post wrote. 

Previously, small businesses could pay $17.25 per hour if tips or $2.19 in medical benefits met compensation thresholds. The new $20.76 law, $4 above Washington’s minimum wage, applies to all businesses and removes tip and benefit credits.

“The hardest thing” about closing is that it “takes away a safe space for people,” Luckenbach, who is gay, said. “The stories of like what it meant to people to come in and feel safe and to feel welcomed — I just, I didn’t know.”

end

Alan Dershowitz: Lawfare Against Trump & Allies “Worse Than Stalinism”

Monday, Jan 06, 2025 – 10:10 PM

On Saturday evening, President-elect Donald Trump and dozens of others screened a new documentary, “The Eastman Dilemma: Lawfare or Justice,” which decries the use of “lawfare” against Trump’s allies who questioned election integrity in 2020. 

Alan Dershowitz, a retired Harvard Law professor, told the audience at Mar-a-Lago during the screening event that the lawfare against Trump was “worse than Stalinism.” 

Dershowitz left the audience with a message:

“Fight back fairly. Use the law. And I can help you do that. We can fight back fairly. We can fight back in a way that makes it clear that we respect the law. We will not use lawfare against lawfare. We will use the Constitution and the rule of law.” 

Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek released Dershowitz’s speech on X.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1875710998189105474

An earlier note titled “In New Film, Former Trump Attorney Details Struggles of Conservative Lawyers” by Epoch’s Emel Akan provided more color into the new film… 

In a new documentary, constitutional scholar John Eastman argues that in recent years, the United States has seen the rise of a “two-tiered justice system” in which the legal system has unfairly targeted lawyers representing conservative clients.

In the new film “The Eastman Dilemma: Lawfare or Justice,” he argues that lawyers who defended President Donald Trump and other conservative figures after the 2020 election faced harsh penalties for questioning election integrity—penalties he believes would not be applied if those on the left made similar claims.

Eastman, a former law professor, gained national attention for advising Trump on constitutional challenges to election procedures in several key battleground states following the 2020 presidential election. He has faced both disbarment and criminal charges related to his role.

The documentary, which will premiere on Jan. 4 at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, aims to shed light on the problems he and other lawyers have faced.

Alongside Eastman, the movie also features Alan Dershowitz, a retired Harvard Law professor, and Jeffrey Clark, a senior Justice Department official in the Trump administration.

“For the last three years, everybody that was involved in raising the serious challenge to illegality in the 2020 election has been targeted for lawfare, criminal prosecutions, and bar disbarment proceedings,” Eastman told The Epoch Times.

He posits that the goal of these efforts has been not only to get lawyers disbarred but also send a message so that no one will dare take on such challenges in the future.

“The purpose of the movie is to expose that lawfare, but also to put together a brief summary of the evidence of illegality that occurred in the 2020 election, so people can know that we weren’t making this stuff up,” Eastman said.

He calls these actions against him and other lawyers “unjustified and unprecedented.”

“I’d like Americans to understand that what we did was in defense of the Constitution,” Eastman said. “I want people to learn about it and to come away angry, so that it never happens again.”

In 2020, he was invited to join an election integrity working group organized at Trump’s request. The group was formed in anticipation of post-election litigation related to the presidential race. On Dec. 6, 2020, Eastman received a formal engagement letter for legal services defining the scope of the agreement.

Eastman is facing criminal charges in both Georgia and Arizona related to his alleged role in efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Following 35 days of trial, a California state bar court judge found in March 2024 that “Eastman’s wrongdoing constitutes exceptionally serious ethical violations warranting severe professional discipline” and recommended his disbarment.

Judge Yvette Roland ruled that Eastman, who had held his California law license for more than 26 years, broke ethics rules by advancing Trump’s challenges to the integrity of the 2020 election.

“His lack of insight into the wrongfulness of his misconduct is deeply troubling,” she wrote.

Eastman has also been allegedly de-banked by Bank of America and USAA.

In an interview in April 2024, Eastman told The Epoch Times that both banks had decided to close his accounts and discontinue doing business with him, without offering an explanation. Eastman believed that these actions were connected to his role in advising Trump.

Bank of America spokesperson Bill Halldin denied the claims of alleged de-banking.

“Due to privacy rules, we don’t comment on client accounts. However, I can say that political views are not a factor in any account closing,” Halldin told The Epoch Times in an email on Jan.3.

USAA did not respond to the request for comment by the time of publication.

Eastman once clerked for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.

He is a former dean of Chapman University Law School and a visiting professor at the University of Colorado. He also had to sever ties with both institutions in January 2021.

“They both canceled me in the same week,” Eastman said. “I’ve been disinvited from conferences and removed from publications.”

Despite the challenges of the past three years, Eastman says he has never doubted that it was worth it. Though he still spends nearly all his time defending himself, he remains hopeful that 2025 will bring an end to his struggles.

“I very much look forward to having this stuff past me so I don’t have to devote nearly full time to defending myself.”

“The Eastman Dilemma: Lawfare or Justice” will be released on Jan. 6. Between 400 and 500 guests are expected to attend the film premiere event at Mar-a-Lago on Jan. 4.

END

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

VDH

KING REPORT

The King Report January 7, 2024 Issue 7405

Independent View of the News

Trump denies report that his team is eyeing pared-back tariffs     Trump debunks Washington Post report saying aides looking at tariffs that focus on critical sectors     Plan would mark shift from Trump’s promises made during presidential campaign     Markets rise on prospect of less aggressive tariffs https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-aides-target-critical-areas-import-duties-washington-post-reports-2025-01-06/   @realDonaldTrump: The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it’s wrong. It’s just another example of Fake News.  Jan 06, 2025, 8:15 AM CT   As we guessed, traders wanted to play for and create the Monday Rally.  After the dismal end to 2024 and equally dismal start to 2025, the usual suspects, and many investors, desperately wanted and needed a robust rally.  When a new year starts well, Street shills are quick to pronounce that ‘as the first week of the year goes, the rest of the year goes.’   Fangs/Mag 7, of course, led the rally.    ESHs formed a clear shallow ‘saucer’ formation that was mostly in negative territory during Nikkei trading.  After the 1:00 ET Nikkei close, ESHs commenced a rally that persisted until 5:22 ET.  ESHs then fell from 6021.00 to 6007.50 at 6:01 ET.  The next rally leg took ESHs to 6040.50 at 7:46 ET.   After trading sideways with a slight upward bias, ESHs hit a peak of 6037.00 at 9:13 ET and then sank to 6015.75 within one minute.  The buying for the NYSE opening and the Monday Rally then appeared in earnest.  ESHs zoomed to 6068.00 11:32 ET.   ESHs then rolled over and sank, with only a few tiny interruptions, to 6009.00 At 15:00 ET.  Manic morning buying and Old World traders’ manipulation for their 11:30 ET close exhausted buyers.  The NY Fang+ Index presaged the ESHs decline, having peaked at 11:12 ET.   The NY Fang+ Index hit a high of 13651.566 at 11:12 ET and a low of 13348.888 at 14:01 ET.   The last-hour rally aborted after a 14-handle rally at 15:28 ET.  ESHs fell to a new NYSE session low of 6004.00 at 15:49 ET.  The blatant and illegal late manipulation forced ESHs to 6024.75 at 16:00 ET.   Even though Trump posted his rebuke of the WaPo story about his tariff policy before the NYSE opening, some pundits (posers) attributed the early rally to the WaPo story and the later decline to DJT’s denial.   Positive aspects of previous session US stocks, led by Mag 7/Fangs staged an early robust rally. A blatant and illegal manipulation of ESHs near the NYSE close truncated equity losses.   Negative aspects of previous session USHs declined as much as 23/32 (to 112 26/32) and were -15/32 at the NYSE close. Stocks declined sharply from midday through the early afternoon. The DJIA was -113 and change at 15:50 ET after peaking at +383.18 (11:38 ET).   Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar and gold declined smartly while cryptocurrencies rallied sharply, again.   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5985.48 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6021.04; 5960.01   Due to a horrid 22% approval rating, Justin Trudeau resigned as Prime Minister of Canada.   On Monday, Congress certified Trump’s 2024 election victory.   Today – Most traders in the known universe played for the Monday Rally.  Alas, it peaked near the European close.  Stocks then sank until the late manipulation.  This is negative action, period!   Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside.  But once again, the first hour indicator (high or low is breached) should be a very good gauge of market direction.  PS – Fangs/Mag 7 are the only dynamic that is keeping stocks buoyant.  This cannot last much longer.   ESHs are +1.25; NQHs +15.75; and USHs -3/32 at 20:17 ET.   Expected Economic Nov Trade Balance -$78.2B; Nov JOLTS Job Openings 7.745m; Dec ISM Services Index 53.5, Prices Paid 57.1; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 8:00 ET   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5948; 100-day MA: 5809; 150-day MA: 5690; 200-day MA: 5563 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,439; 100-day MA: 42,83; 150-day MA: 41,560; 200-day MA: 40,886 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5975.38 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5329.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6012.66 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5936.15 triggers a sell signal   More Details Emerge of Plan to Kill Supreme Court Justice A California man allegedly told authorities that he flew to the East Coast to kill Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, according to newly filed court documents…Roske, who had allegedly brought weapons with him, was close to Kavanaugh’s home on June 8, 2022, but received a call from his sister, whom he had texted, “I love you.”… Roske told police officers that he planned to break into the house, shoot Kavanaugh, and then shoot himself, according to a newly filed transcript…     Roske detailed his motivation for allegedly plotting to murder Kavanaugh, including the publication of a leaked draft of a Supreme Court ruling that would overturn Roe v. Wade, giving states the ability to more closely regulate abortion… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/more-details-emerge-plan-kill-supreme-court-justice   If DJT is accountable for Jan. 6, Schumer is accountable for violence directed at SCOTUS justices.   @libsoftiktok: Chuck Schumer just repeated the lie that officers died because of January 6th. The only person who was k*lled was unarmed Ashli Babbitt. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1876365461048246565

—

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

How stupid can one get?

159 Democrats Voted Against Laken Riley Bill To Detain Criminal Illegals

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 03:25 PM

Authored by Stacey Robinson via The Epoch Times,

The House of Representatives has passed the Laken Riley Act with a vote of 264–159. Almost all Republicans and 48 Democrats united to push the bill through the lower chamber of Congress.

The legislation requires the Department of Homeland Security to detain illegal immigrants who have committed certain crimes, such as theft, burglary, or shoplifting.

It also allows states to sue the federal government for injunctive relief over “certain immigration-related decisions or alleged failures” if they resulted in harm to that state.

These can include the failure to detain an individual who has already been ordered to be deported, or neglecting to fulfill vetting requirements for immigrants seeking to enter the United States.

“The tragic and preventable murder of Laken Riley serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of failed leadership,” Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said at a press conference before the vote.

“The Laken Riley Act is a direct step toward ensuring that criminal illegal aliens are swiftly and permanently removed from our communities and our country,”

The bill passed the House last year but was never brought to the floor by the Senate. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) noted that 170 House Democrats had voted against the passage of the bill at that time, saying he felt they had “put politics ahead of principle.”

Democrats opposing the bill on the floor of Congress today called the bill overbroad and likely to sweep up illegal immigrants who are wrongly arrested, even if they have lived in the United States for years.

“This is a radical departure from current law, which since 1996 has generally required mandatory detention only for persons who are criminally convicted or who admit to having committed certain serious crimes,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said. 

Raskin also objected to stipulations allowing suit of the government, saying that approach violates the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in the U.S. v. Texas case, which said states have no standing to bring legal actions over federal implementation of public policy.

Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) countered that the High Court’s majority decision, written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, said that such suits would require a change in law.

“That is exactly what this bill does, by the book,” he said.

Shortly before the House vote, Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) introduced the companion Senate bill, which is likely to pass as the GOP holds a 53–47 majority in the upper chamber.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told reporters on Jan 7 that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is eager to push for a vote on the bill in the Senate “as early as this week.”

The Laken Riley Act draws its name from a 22-year-old Georgia nursing student who was assaulted and murdered in February 2024 while out for a morning run near the University of Georgia campus.

The murderer, Jose Antonio Ibarra, had come into the United States illegally and had been arrested and released multiple times for theft. He was arrested for the murder after surveillance footage showed him throwing a jacket containing strands of Riley’s hair into a dumpster near his apartment.

On Nov. 20, 2024, Ibarra was convicted on 10 counts including murder and aggravated assault with intent to rape. He was sentenced to life in prison without parole.

Riley’s murder also resulted in a push for state legislation tightening Georgia’s laws against illegal immigrants, which Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp signed into law on May 1, 2024.

That law, known as Track and Report, requires authorities to verify the immigration status of any individual over the age of 18 if they are arrested or detained on suspicion of having committed a crime.

end

INTEL CORPORATION

Preparations for the death of Intel?????

(Mish Shedlock)

Intel On The Brink Of Death Due To Culture Rot Says Scathing Report

Tuesday, Jan 07, 2025 – 02:15 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

SemiAnalysis has a scathing report on critical mistakes made by Intel. Let’s investigate…

Please consider Intel on the Brink of Death | Culture Rot, Product Focus Flawed, Foundry Must Survive

Intel’s board is incompetent and its horrible decisions over the decades are going to push it towards death. The decision to fire Pat Gelsinger, put in charge a CFO + career sales and marketing leader, and cut spending on fabs in favor of a renewed focus on x86 is an example of the incompetence that will end Intel. Fabricated Knowledge wrote The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail recently explaining how board issues around leadership and planning have failed the company. Simply put, the Intel board has escaped blame for over a decade of failures. This decade of failure culminates in the ultimate mistake: dismissing CEO Pat Gelsinger.

Upon closer inspection, these failures are no surprise. 7 of 11 members have no relevant semiconductor experience. Two more are accomplished in the field but as academics, not industry players. They have no experience making hard decisions, understanding critical business inflections, and are not qualified for what’s at stake. The only member with a strong and relevant CV, Stacy J. Smith, joined just this year as a replacement for Lip-Bu Tan.

Intel’s Failures

The problems at Intel began with the 10nm node (arguably 14nm). In 2016, TSMC and Intel planned to introduce their 10nm processes into volume production. While TSMC executed on schedule with a lower performing node, Intel pushed an aggressive shrink requiring quadruple patterning, novel Cobalt interconnects, and contact over the active gate. The yield was bad, and the node took three years to fix. By the time Intel shipped 10nm products in volume, TSMC had sold more than half a million N7 wafers and was sampling N5.

Competitors like AMD had the advantage of TSMC’s fabrication and in many cases better chip designs/architectures. Datacenter market share began to slip, and Intel’s business issues only snowballed.

Culture – Rotten to the Core

The story of Intel’s cultural rot goes back to Paul Otellini. Paul and Pat Gelsinger were the front runners for the CEO position. This is the classic leadership choice of business bro versus technologist. The result was that Intel chose its first non-engineer CEO.

Paul was ultimately chosen due to his ruthless anti-competitive business decisions that locked AMD out of the CPU market and cemented Intel’s role as a monopoly for more than a decade. Paul instituted a policy that involved paying various OEMs and system integrators not to use AMD, which choked out AMD’s revenue, R&D, and fab investments. Dell alone was paid ~$4.3 billion, and this was the only reason Dell was profitable during this period. Intel and the EU are still fighting out this anti-competitive behavior in courts to this day.

Brian Krzanich was a disaster as CEO. He presided over the 10nm debacle. This mismanagement of the fabs is the single greatest issue the company faced, because that is the core of Intel. Despite this, Krzanich was only fired when an illicit workplace relationship came to light.

Not to be outdone, the 2018 board iteration replaced Krzanich with the first truly non-technical CEO in Intel’s history: Bob Swan. Technically, Paul Otellini was the first non-engineer to lead Intel, but he spent more than 30 years with the company, including his time as a technical advisor to the legendary Andy Grove and leading the microprocessor division.

Swan was a professional CFO – Intel was his 10th CFO role – and so process engineering took a backseat to financial engineering. Swan’s Intel spent as much on stock buybacks as it did capital expenditures on fabs over his tenure: more than $36 billion towards buybacks versus $38 billion in Capex. This was malpractice in a capital-intensive industry when the company was bleeding market share and more than two nodes behind its chief rival.

Brian Krzanich, Bob Swan, and Intel’s board cut not only Capex, but also technical talent, in droves. From 2013 to 2020, 4 out of 7 years had shrinking headcount all while the business lost its technical leadership and had fantastic profitability.

There is No Moat in x86 and the Product Group

Intel’s glory days were when they had superior process technology combined with their x86 moat. The x86 moat was also twofold: Intel had a moat in x86, and x86 had a moat in computing. Today, neither of those moats hold.

Before the smartphone era, x86 was the dominant instruction set within general-purpose CPUs. Almost every PC and server was guaranteed to have an x86-based CPU as the software was written to be compatible with the x86 instruction set. This was propagated by the “Wintel” (Windows and Intel) alliance, where Windows was the dominant Operating System that ran exclusively on x86. Software developers would rationally focus their efforts on developing software for the largest user base: Windows, and that meant making software for x86. This was a classic ecosystem: customers would want Windows PCs because of the larger suite of software options, and to use Windows meant buying an x86-based CPU.

Most of those x86 CPUs were Intel CPUs. While AMD also had the IP rights to design x86-based CPUs, AMD was for a long time tied to its own fabs (now spun off as Global Foundries) with inferior process technology to Intel’s, making it uncompetitive. Ironically, this is Intel’s position today.

Competition is Coming Even for x86 Client CPUs

This began the fading relevance of Windows and Intel, replaced by the Apple and Arm era. This partnership has encroached on Intel Product Group’s core: Apple took the knowledge and experience from designing APs with their A-series iPhone SoCs and parlayed that into the hugely successful Arm-based M-series SoCs for their client notebooks and desktops in 2020. Fifteen years after succumbing to the dominance of x86 over IBM PowerPC, Apple ended its Intel partnership.

This transition was only made possible with a tremendous effort to port software written for x86 to Arm. The key piece was the Rosetta 2 emulator, which recompiled apps at install to work with Apple silicon, enabling a seamless transition. The Apple M1 unlocked substantial performance gains with various accelerator engines not offered by Intel along with considerable boosts in battery life. It was a hit.

Trump and a Chip Czar

SemiAnalysis says it’s crucial to save Intel’s foundry on grounds of national security.

Customers want to de-risk their TSMC/Taiwan exposure the same way the national security community does.

Intel Foundry should be laser-focused on 1) a competitive process technology and 2) making design switch over from TSMC as cheap and easy as possible. The former is on track, but it is not clear what the latter is. A split from the Intel parent would reduce distractions and increase focus. Government support on national security grounds is necessary. Intel Foundry is the single best hedge America has against a Chinese-sponsored coup or invasion of Taiwan.

But note that Intel selling Intel Foundry will not work without a significant capitalization to the tune of ~$50B injected into Intel Foundry. AMD tried to spin off the fabs, and it was disastrous. Mubadala purchased the fabs from AMD and created GlobalFoundries. They then proceeded to lose $22.4 billion over the next decade.

While the Trump administration is probably allergic to anything that looks like “corporate welfare,” many key officials are national security hawks who recognize the importance of having advanced logic manufacturing capability on-shore. A standalone Intel Foundry that is capitalized and with long term manufacturing agreements from 2 of the largest semiconductor companies in the US is much easier for the government to support, both in dollar amounts and politically.

Intel Foundry won’t be laden with Intel’s lagging product team, Mobileye, or Altera. Intel Foundry will have one clear function, and it’s vital to national security and the future of America and the West.

Who should lead the charge here? Maybe a “Chip Czar” charged with restoring American logic prowess. We know someone with a great CV who has just become freed up for new opportunities…

Priorities, Priorities

There is much more in the lengthy article for inquiring minds to investigate. It does take a subscription to read some of it, but there is plenty to see without subscription.

Chips are a genuine matter of national security, not autos, not underwear, not most of the things Trump is pissing and moaning on tariffs over.

But we are off to a horrid start.

Intel Announces 15,000 Job Cuts, 15 Percent of its Workforce

On August 1, 2024 I noted Intel Announces 15,000 Job Cuts, 15 Percent of its Workforce

Intel received $8.5 billion in Biden administration grants (Inflation Reduction Act) but announces massive layoffs and halts dividends due to a decline in revenue.

Intel’s Money Woes Throw Biden Team’s Chip Strategy Into Turmoil

On September 4, Bloomberg reported Intel’s Money Woes Throw Biden Team’s Chip Strategy Into Turmoil

The Biden-Harris administration’s big bet on Intel Corp. to lead a US chipmaking renaissance is in grave trouble as a result of the company’s mounting financial struggles, creating a potentially damaging setback for the country’s most ambitious industrial policy in decades.

TSMC Arizona Production Remains on Schedule

On September 9, 2024 TechPowerUp reported TSMC Arizona Achieves Yield Parity with Taiwanese Facilities, Production Remains on Schedule

TSMC has reportedly managed to produce yields at its Arizona facility that are on par with yields back home in Taiwan, making its expansion efforts successful. According to Bloomberg, TSMC did a trial production, a multi-month effort, to produce N4 node wafers with low defect rates. With wafers now in TSMC’s labs for testing, it is reported that Arizona facility yields have achieved parity with their Taiwanese facilities back home. This indicates that TSMC’s efforts to expand in the US are so far considered a success, as advanced chipmaking is a very complex process that is only done by a few makers and in very few locations. With TSMC expanding in the US now and proving that its technology can work on US soil, the company has a green light to start volume production in the first half of 2025.

However, this is only the beginning of TSMC’s Arizona expansion. The Taiwanese giant plans to have a second fab operational by 2028 and produce 2 nm and 3 nm chips in the state. Additionally, there will be a third facility for 2 nm and more advanced nodes in Phoenix, bringing the total value of TSMC’s US expansion efforts to $65 billion, with $6.6 billion from the CHIPS Act grants and $5 billion in loans from the US government. If upcoming fabs follow the lead of the first facility, US-based production needs will possibly be satisfied.

Trump Accuses Taiwan of Stealing U.S. Chip Industry, Threatens Tariffs

On October 29, I noted Trump Accuses Taiwan of Stealing U.S. Chip Industry, Threatens Tariffs

Trump also suggested foreign companies shouldn’t be able to enter the U.S. and use government money. “That chip deal is so bad,” he said. “We put up billions of dollars for rich companies to come in and borrow the money and build chip companies here. They’re not going to give us the good companies anyway.”

The claim seems absurd given TSMC is investing in technology in the US.

Trump does not like any deal he didn’t negotiate. Heck, he does not even like the USMCA (NAFTA rewrite) that he did negotiate.

Getting TSMC to build a factory in the US was one of the best things, perhaps the only thing, good to come out of the Chips act.

GREG HUNTER

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY