JAN 13/NEVER FAILS: HIGH T.A.S. ISSUANCE SIGNALS MASSIVE RAID..AS PROMISED A HUGE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $27.75 TO $2660.15/SILVER WAS DOWN 69 CENTS TO $29.66/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $4.00 TO $958.05 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS ALSO DOWN FRACTIONALLY BY $4.25 TO $944.10//GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND JOHN RUBINO AND AN EXCELLENT COMMENTARY BY REUTER’S ALEX POLLOCK//ON THE HUGE LOSSES AT THE FED //MISH SHEDLOCK ON THE PLIGHT OF FRANCE WITH ITS HUGE OVERHANGING DEBT//ISRAEL VS HAMAS WITH A POSSIBLE HOSTAGE DEAL SETTLEMENT/AND HEZBOLLAH//ISRAEL VS HOUTHIS: //RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLLER/MORE UPDATES ON LOS ANGELES FIRES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 200 190 H BMO CAPITAL 31 323 C HSBC 7 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 25 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 80 661 C JP MORGAN 62 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 7 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 10 4
TOTAL: 217 217 MONTH TO DATE: 7,449
JPMorgan stopped 62/217
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JANUARY/2024. CONTRACT: 217 NOTICES FOR 21700 OZ 0.6749 TONNES
total notices so far: 7449 contracts for 744,900 Oz (23.169 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY
SILVER NOTICES: 33 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 330,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1776 for 8.800 million oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.69 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 637,000 OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 459.990 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED1115CONTRACTS TO 152,041 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0,17 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1420 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR RELATIVELY SMALL GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS AND TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE. THEY FAILED WITH //FRIDAY PRICING WITH ZERO LONGS BEING KNOCKED OFF. DERIVATIVE LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY BUT WE DID HAVE ANOTHER NEW MASSIVE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 1442 CONTRACTS WAS ANNOUNCED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS RED THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER RAID SHORTLY. WE HAD A GOOD 305 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS HUMONGOUS 1442 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 1420 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD ZERO TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT FRIDAY’S COMEX SESSION
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: A HUMONGOUS 1442 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH LAST MONDAY’S TRADING. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.17 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1515 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A 305 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 220,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 9.490 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN RISES TO 9.490 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// A GOOD 305 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1442 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 95 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 DAYS, total 5270 contracts: OR 26.350 MILLION OZ (752 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 26.35 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 26.35 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1115 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 305 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 305 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 8.110 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE,FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 220,000 OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 9.490 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE 1. A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1420 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS 1442 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON FRIDAY WITH THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1442) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, NO DOUBT PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION.
WE HAD 33 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 165,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9360 OI CONTRACTS TO 499,105 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW GETTING CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 583 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (9360 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $17.80 IN PRICE FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 391 CONTRACTS OR 39,100 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD THE FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS TOTALLING 1700 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ (5.28775 TONNES) ISSUED JAN 6/2025 TO WHICH WE ADD JAN 8 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 150 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES . NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 27.082 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) + 5.28775 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + .4665 EX FOR RISK JAN 8 = 32.8353 TONNES
/NEW STANDING 31.6193 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $17.80 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 13,932 OI CONTRACTS (44.22 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4572 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 499,688
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,932 CONTRACTS WITH 9360 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4572 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,932 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED AND CRIMINAL 33,387 CONTRACTS ISSUED.(THIS IS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUED BY THE CME.) WE HAD A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE FRIDAY. MORE MONSTER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S IS NEEDED FOR REPLENISHMENT TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING (FUTURE RAIDS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4572 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 9360 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,932 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 391 CONTRACTS OR 39100 OZ (1.216 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK JAN 8 OF .4665 TONNES TOGETHER WITH OUR EARLIER EX FOR RISK OF 5.2867 TONNES//// NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO:
27.082 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY +
5.753 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON OUR TWO OCCASIONS IN JANUARY (6TH AND 8TH )
EQUALS: 32.8353 TONNES
//NEW STANDING JAN: 32.8353 TONNES
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE FRIDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD A 1) $17.80 PRICE GAIN, AND 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN OF 13,932 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 33,387 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 30,383 CONTRACTS OF 3,038,300 OZ OR 94.503 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4340 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 94.503 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 94.503 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR.3,597.846
JAN. 2025: 94.503 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1115 CONTRACTS OI TO 152,041 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.20233EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 305 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 305 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1210 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 305 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1420 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS A HUGE 7.575 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RELATIVELY SMALL $0.17 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/MONDAY MORNING SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.77 PTS OR 0.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 190.15 PTS OR 1.00%
// Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.31%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3320 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3565// Oil DOWN TO 78,77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKE
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED9372 CONTRACTS TO 499,105 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.80 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AS WE HAD ALSO, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4572) . THE CME ISSUED ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS EARLY SATURDAYMORNING
THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,932 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED TRADING AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT,WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS 33,387 T.A.S. ISSUANCE (SATURDAY MORNING).THIS IS THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE 30,000 PLUS ISSUANCE.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 202, 203 , 204 AND 205 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP IS COMING INTO OFFICE IN 6 TRADING DAYS. TRUMP WOULD PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FOUND OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD. AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING SESSION TODAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4572 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /FEB 4572 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4572 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 14,615 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4572 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9360 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.80 FRIDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED SIZED 33,387 CONTRACTS, AS THE FED(FRBNY) CALLED FOR THE FED-MOBILE AS THESE WILL BE USED TO ORCHESTRATE A MASSIVE RAID BEFORE THE TRUMP-MOBILE TAKES OFFICE.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WAS EVIDENT IN LAST MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID. HOWEVER NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 31,585 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THIS IS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE. THIS T.A.S. ISSUANCE WILL BE USED IN OUR NEXT RAID IN GOLD TRADING NO DOUBT BEFORE TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE FED MUST REDUCE ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT OF 82 TONNES. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING.
STANDING FOR GOLD FOR THE PAST 4 PLUS YEARS:
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (32.8353 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE JAN DELIVERY MONTH.
JANUARY: 10.1331 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 50 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
January 2025: 27.082 TONNES + 5.753 EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 32.8353 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $17.80/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY BUT DID HAVE ANOTHER MONSTER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. OF 33,387 CONTRACTS.
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER TRADING AND NOW JANUARY!!
41 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 14.6836 TONNES. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS JANUARY MONTH
WE NOW BEGIN OUR NEW MONTH OF JANUARY AND LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR JANUARY: 5.7533 TONNES
TOTAL DELIVERIES JANUARY TRADING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 44.22 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (10.133TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 391 CONTRACTS OR 39,100 OZ (1.216 TONNES) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5.7533 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE WHERE THE BUYERS ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY.(ISSUED JAN 6/2025 AND JAN 8).. THIS IS ,OF COURSE, AGAINST ALL RULES OF THE COMEX AS IT IS MEANT TO DECEIVE US. IT IS TOTALLY INSANE FOR A BUYER TO ASSUME RISK OF DELIVERY.
NEW STANDING FOR JAN: 27.082 TONNES + 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 32.8353 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.80
WE HAD 583 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,932 CONTRACTS OR 1,393,200 OZ (44.22 TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY 401,363 contracts: strong ////nobody wishes to play with the crooks
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7449 notices 744900 oz 23.169 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 1
i) Into dealer Asahi: 32,465.440 oz
total dealer deposits: 32,465.440 oz
we have 1 customer deposit
i) Into Brinks: 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)
withdrawals: 0
adjustments:1
i) Out of Brinks 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) ii) Our of JPMorgan 216,229.0671 oz
total customer to dealer: 8.725 tonnes
thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JAN: we have an oi of 1475 contracts having LOST ONLY 203 contracts. We had a strong 594 contract issuance on FRIDAY. Thus ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP (GAIN) of 391 contracts on our two exchanges. (39100 oz or 1.216 tonnes). THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
FEBRUARY LOST 8981 CONTRACTS TO 303,788 AS IT BEGINS ITS COUNTDOWN BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE (JAN 31.2025)
MARCH HAD A GAIN OF 963 CONTRACTS UP TO 3207
APRIL HAD A GAIN OF 17,327 CONTRACTS UP TO 124,354 CONTRACTS
We had 217 contracts filed for today representing 21,700 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 217 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 62 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JAN /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7449 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(1475 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (217 x 100 oz per contract) equals 870,700 OZ OR 27.082 TONNES. to which we add those criminal exchange for risk issuance of .4665 TONNES (JAN 8) AND 5.28775 tonnes/JAN 6//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 5.753 TONNES. THUS NEW STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX FOR JAN IS 27.082 TONNES PLUS 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 32.8353 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month: No of notices filed so far (7449 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (1475 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (217 x 100 oz which equals 870,700 oz (27.082 TONNES) + 5.753 tonnes ex for risk ( JAN 6 AND 8TH) = 32.8353 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.: 32.8353 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 22,468,904.155 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,757,014.808 oz or 303.48 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 12,959,954.968 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,619,290 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 236.99 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.511 million oz
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 13. 2025
INITIAL
//2025// THE JAN 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
390,132.008 oz
a) Out of Delaware: 41,223.908 oz b) Out of Loomis; 348,908.100 oz
total 390.132.008 oz
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
i) Into CNT 50,960.733 oz ii) Into Loomis: 425,171.430 oz
total deposit 476,132.163 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
33 CONTRACT(S) (165,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
122 contracts (0.610 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1776 Contracts (8.880 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
deposits:2
i) Into CNT 50,960.733 oz ii) Into Loomis: 425,171.430 oz
total deposit 476,132.163 oz
WITHDRAWALS
390,132.008 oz
a) Out of Delaware: 41,223.908 oz b) Out of Loomis; 348,908.100 oz
total 390.132.008 oz
total withdrawal: nil oz
ADJUSTMENT 1
i) CNT customer to dealer acct: 166,624.298 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.536million oz/324.534million or 41.76%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 73.828 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 324.534 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN /2024 OI: 155 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 120 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD A 164 CONTRACT ISSUANCE ON FRIDAY. THUS WE GAINED A STRONG 44 CONTRACTS, THAT IS WE HAD A 44 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 220,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK FINDING SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 43 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 948
MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 1359 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 118,358
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 164 for 820,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 71,538 good//
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1776x 5,000 oz = 8.880 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (155) and the number of notices served upon today (33)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN 2025 contract month: 1776 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN(155) minus number of notices served upon today (33)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JAN contract month equating to 9.490 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 9.270 million oz.
There are 73.242 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
JAN 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES
JAN 10 WITH GOLD UP $17.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 9 WITH GOLD UP $13.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 8 WITH GOLD UP $5.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 2 WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 31 WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES
DEC 26 WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 24 WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES
DEC 20 WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES
DEC 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES
DEC 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 876.82 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JAN 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.637 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.990 MILLION OZ
JAN 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ
DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ
DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ
DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ
DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ
DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 459.990 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
END
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
It has been said that not one man in a million understands money. Even fewer understand credit. Yet we are in the largest credit bubble in history. It will not end well.
The reason that financial asset values will collapse along with currencies is the common factor of excess credit, an excess which has accumulated over the last forty years.
Nothing else matters. Forget “growth” which is actually growth in credit misleadingly described as GDP. Forget unemployment. Forget inflation, forget Fed policy. For too long macroeconomists have taken our attention away from the real issue — the tsunami of non-productive credit and the matching debt which is set to collapse.
In this article I point out the inevitable consequences of the unproductive inflation of credit whose value is now detached from real legal money, which is gold. Economic intervention by clueless governments has led to a cycle of increasingly large credit bubbles never being allowed to wash out economic distortions. Instead, they have been feeding into each other successively. Consequently, we are now living with the largest credit bubble in the history of mankind. Ultimately it will crash, driven by rising interest rates, bond yields and collapsing currencies. The current rise in bond yields signals that that moment has almost certainly arrived.
It is vital to understand the distinction between money and credit — without that knowledge we all become victims of our ignorance. The purpose of this article is to walk the reader through the evolution of money and credit from early history to the present day. Only when we have a clear understanding of the distinction between money and credit can we take the decisions to protect ourselves from what promises to be the most destructive collapse of credit ever recorded.
Introduction
Sadly, even financial experts don’t understand money. Nor do most of those who profess to know either, confusing money with credit. Money rarely circulates in post-medieval economies, a role entirely filled by credit.
For clarity at the outset, in this article money is defined as the ultimate medium of exchange without counterparty risk — physical gold. Gold very rarely circulates, being hoarded instead. The rest is credit.
Credit must have existed before the convenience of money, a fact almost never recognised by monetary historians. The Phoenicians were trading without money long before it emerged as a medium of exchange. They will have relied on promises to compensate providers of the wherewithal to equip the vessels, provide the slaves and the food to mount trading expeditions across the Mediterranean and beyond, bringing wealth to their city states from trading.
The nature of these promises, or obligations, will have been in the form of agreements to repay them at the conclusion of a trading expedition by way of a share of the spoils. These arrangements will have fulfilled the definition of credit, which is comprised of an advance of the necessary goods and an obligation to repay. In accounting terms, a credit is always matched by an obligation to repay it, so for every creditor there must be a matching debtor.
The Phoenicians are thought to have been trading between their city states since the early bronze age, at least two millennia before Rome first codified their law in the Twelve Tables (or Tablets) enacted in 449BC. In Table VII, it was ruled that “…articles sold and delivered shall not be acquired by the purchaser unless he pays the price to the seller or in some other way satisfies the seller by giving a surety or pledge.” The distinction between immediate and deferred settlement was thereby legally established in this ruling.
It is thought by historians that at about that time the first Roman coin came into existence to facilitate immediate settlement. This was the aes, a bronze ingot weighing a Roman pound. Coins of silver and then gold came much later. Rome’s money gave definition to final settlement, and also that which was deferred or promised: i.e. credit. And all the successor nations to the Roman Empire, which colonised almost the entire world beyond Chinese and Japanese spheres of influence have this distinction embedded in their common law.
Therefore, from the dawn of monetary history the value of credit was irrevocably tied to final settlement in a monetary metal. Attempts to do away with this relationship between money and credit have always failed.
Credit as a tradeable commodity
It was not long before third parties in a transaction appeared in the form of bankers. A banker is one who deals in credit. Whether banking in this form existed before the Twelve Tables, as opposed to the earlier Greek practice of an individual acting as a custodian of metallic money need not concern us. But it was from the earliest Roman law that banking evolved into the form that we know today.
For some seven centuries, that is until the second century AD, a banker would have provided the credit necessary for merchants and traders to do their business in simple terms. The next evolutionary step was to be able to buy and sell creditor obligations. Initially, the Roman juror Gaius (AD 130—150) ruled that the law at that time made no provision for the trading of debts. Therefore, a debt could only be transferred with clear title to new ownership with the agreement of the debtor, meaning that the debtor would have to endorse each transfer of the debt.
It was an uncertainty which had to be dealt with. This altered following the findings of two later jurors, Ulpian (?—228AD) and Julius Paulus (contemporary with Ulpian) who argued that debts were transferrable without the agreement of the debtor. It was the findings of these two jurors which were eventually confirmed in the Digest of Justinian’s Pandects. Without these rulings, capital markets would not exist today.
The status of credit today
We can see that the distinction between money used in final settlement and credit which is always matched by an obligation to finally settle were firmly linked by value in Roman law, and in its successors’ common laws to this day. Of this fact there can be no doubt. Currency is unarguably credit and does not satisfy the description of money without counterparty risk, being recorded as a liability on its issuer’s balance sheet. But because a currency serves as the common accounting medium, it can be regarded as the highest form of credit. It is not and never has been money as commonly stated today.
We know or should also know that commercial bank deposits are not money but are a bank’s debt obligation to a depositor. But credit doesn’t stop there: there are far larger amounts of unrecorded credit between individuals, all of which are settled with reference to the currency in common use. A tradesman will give a customer credit for his employment which is matched by the customer’s obligation to pay, extinguished when he has delivered his employment and been paid.
The payment might be currency cash or by bank cheque or transfer — further forms of credit which substitute one counterparty obligation for another. While the tradesman and his customer have finally settled their business, the obligations have been passed on to other parties. All business is conducted this way.
Tradeable government or corporate bonds are credit as well. The promises of an enterprise’s management to maintain its shareholders’ equity interests in it are also credit. It is on the basis of these promises that wealth is created. The greater the level of debt, the greater is the quantity of wealth, so long as the integrity of debt obligations remains intact.
It is when the value of debt obligations are questionable that the colossal system of credit becomes vulnerable to default on some or more of the obligations behind it. Clearly, this risk is minimised if the credit outstanding is matched by debt which is productively deployed. It is when it is not productively deployed that the trouble starts.
Economists of the Austrian school have noted the danger from excessive credit in the confines of the banking system. When leading Austrians such as Mises, Hayek, and Schumpeter did their valuable work on credit cycles (which they termed business cycle theory), currencies were linked in their value to gold as gold substitutes.
Total recorded credit could and would fluctuate. It is the sum total of currency plus bank deposits at the central bank, and the deposit obligations of commercial banks to the general public. [Note: money supply statistics exclude commercial bank deposits at a central bank, but they exist as credit nonetheless]
But as we have seen, credit can only contract if debt obligations are extinguished at the same time. Under a gold standard, credit could be extinguished if it was exchanged for gold supplied by the currency issuer. That is no longer the case today.
There is now only one way in which credit can contract without obligations being transferred elsewhere, and that is when it is extinguished by a debtor’s default.
An individual bank can reduce its obligations to depositors, by effectively transferring them to another bank. In the event of a run on deposits, a central bank might come to a commercial bank’s assistance, but unless gold reserves come into play that is always by replacing one form of credit with another.
What happens in a credit bubble?
There have been times in the history of money and credit when credit has been increased to fuel speculation. Tulipomania, the Mississippi, and the South Sea bubbles come to mind. These and other bubbles existed because banks and other credible providers of credit expanded their loans and debt obligations to satisfy credit demand for speculation. Financial speculation is rife today, evidenced by “momentum buying” which deliberately ignores value.
The suppression of interest rates below their natural level has aways fuelled credit expansion, a point made by Austrian school economists. Before central bank intervention, this was a cyclical phenomenon driven by banks competing to lend to businesses while playing down associated risks. Banks’ balance sheets would become dangerously extended, while at the same time the expansion of unproductive credit always led to an increase in the general level of prices. The natural level of interest rates would rise to compensate, disrupting earlier profit margin assumptions for businesses when their plans were drawn up and rates were lower. Naturally, the higher risks to a bank’s balance sheet from potential business failures make bank managers cautious, reducing their exposure to borrowers deemed riskiest.
Without state interventions, credit contracts when borrowers default on their loans to the banks and the weaker banks can go under, defaulting on their obligations in turn. Most spectacularly, this is what happened in the wake of the 1927—1929 credit bubble in America, when thousands of banks failed in the early 1930s. Credit simply disappeared from the statistics.
Today, this has not been prevented over multiple successive credit cycles. Business and bank defaults have been deferred ed by central banks suppressing interest rates. Consequently, the number of zombie corporations has increase continuously, companies which will never be commercially viable under interest rates at a natural level. This accumulation over several credit cycles of expanded and unproductive debt has postponed the crisis of a credit deflation by rolling it up into the following credit cycle.
Over the last forty years, the financialisation of bank lending has particularly fuelled credit expansion into financial activities and financial asset values, including a plethora of derivatives. Credit booms and their busts being postponed by central banks supressing interest rates have led to the accumulation of the largest credit bubble in history. Additionally, unproductive government spending has further fuelled the quantities of credit in their economies while debasing their currencies and driving natural rates of interest higher still.
Can central banks repeat their interest rate suppression policies and rescue the credit bubble from imploding once more? Last time, it required dollar rates at zero and euro and yen rates in negative territory. Clearly, interest rates can go no lower than on the last cycle to postpone the next credit crisis.
The progressive decline in the rise in rates sufficient to trigger a credit crisis is shown by the upper pecked line in the chart below of the US Fed’s key lending rate. Note how the peaks were always followed by an official recession, rescued by yet lower rates.
For the first time in nearly four decades, this line has already been broken significantly. Yet so far, it has not triggered a crisis in credit.
But the US and other key governments have accumulated so much debt relative to the sizes of their economies that new and maturing debt can only be financed at higher bond yields. Bond yields are already rising again, as the next chart clearly illustrates of the US Treasury 10-year Note, widely regarded as the “risk-free” bond standard from which all financial values are generally referred to.
It seems probable that when this bond yield rises further the entire dollar-based credit bubble will implode.
The authorities are certain to try to stop the credit implosion. Instead of lesser forms of credit taking its value from the highest, the situation will be reversed with the higher being destroyed by attempts to rescue the lesser. It is a situation which has come about because of misguided government intervention over many decades.
In the distant past, through groupthink commercial banks triggered a credit cycle that was ultimately destructive for their customers and sometimes destructive for them as well. But at least it was a natural cycle on a limited scale driven by human fallibility. The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter even coined a positive phrase for it — creative destruction. Government intervention has led us to a far worse all-consuming monster.
In any analysis of the current situation, whether it be inflation expectations or the likelihood of recession, nothing else matters so much as the certainty of the looming credit disaster which eclipses them all.
In October, two brutal hurricanes hit the US southeast. And last week, Los Angeles went up in flames and is still burning as this is written.
These natural disasters are, obviously, a nightmare for the people directly impacted. But they might be part of something much bigger and far-reaching.
Migration and Inflation
Over the past half-century, tens of millions of Americans have poured into sunny states like Florida and California that are catastrophically unsuited for large populations. Specifically, the former is in hurricane alley and is guaranteed a direct hit from a Cat-5 one of these days, while the latter is a desert prone to droughts and raging wildfires (see today’s news).
While this ill-fated mass migration was happening, the federal government was inflating away the dollar, causing the prices of financial assets like homes — especially in popular coastal cities — to soar to stratospheric highs. Miami, for instance:
Deadly Combination
Combine massive population increase with soaring home prices, then toss in recurring natural disasters, and the result is a doom loop for the insurance companies that have to replace those multi-million dollar houses. In response, insurers are either raising their rates beyond the means of many homeowners or exiting these markets altogether.
Millions of Americans are thus left with much of their net worth tied up in houses that are prohibitively expensive to insure — if insurance is available at any price — and are therefore unsellable.
The resulting “reverse wealth effect,” in which evaporating home equity causes people to reduce spending and/or sell other assets to fill the gap, could begin at the coasts and sweep through the rest of the country, catalyzing the next financial crisis.
(Epoch Times) – Thousands of high-end homes burned in recent fires could lead to losses topping $150 billion, putting further pressure on California’s insurance market.
As Californians already face significant challenges finding home insurance, the fires ravaging Los Angeles County could make it even more difficult and costly to insure properties in the future.
Deadly fires erupted beginning Jan. 7, causing at least 11 deaths, leading to the ongoing ordered evacuation at one point of more than 180,000 individuals, with another 200,000 warned to get ready for possible evacuation.
More than 10,000 buildings are damaged or destroyed across the county, according to the latest estimates, with the number expected to rise as fires are minimally contained, in what some are describing as one of the most costly natural disasters in American history. AccuWeather estimates economic losses from the fires to reach up to $150 billion.
As of the latest tally on Jan. 9, the Pacific Palisades fire destroyed nearly 6,000 structures, including oceanfront mansions in neighborhoods north of Santa Monica, where homes sell for between $7 million and $20 million, with an average price of more than $3 million across the city.
The affluent area is made up of primarily white-collar workers, according to Cal Fire demographics data, which shows slightly fewer than half of the structures affected by the Palisades Fire were built since 1970, and about 12,000 are older.
Videos of the aftermath show businesses and homes leveled by fire, with the blocks of some neighborhoods completely demolished by the inferno.
(Epoch Times) – State Farm non-renewed approximately 1,600 policies in the region in 2024, of approximately 30,000 homeowners and 42,000 apartment policies it dropped statewide, citing rising costs and risks.
“This decision was not made lightly and only after careful analysis of State Farm General’s financial health, which continues to be impacted by inflation, catastrophe exposure, reinsurance costs, and the limitations of working within decades-old insurance regulations,” the company said in a statement.
“State Farm General takes seriously our responsibility to maintain adequate claims-paying capacity for our customers and to comply with applicable financial solvency laws. It is necessary to take these actions now.”
Approximately 6,000 structures were lost in the Eaton Fire, as of the most recent count on Jan. 10. The East Altadena and Hasting Heights neighborhoods sustained significant damage.
The average value of homes in the area is approximately $1.4 million, according to the online real estate listing firm Zillow.
Insurance Market Stability in Question
“At this point, it’s not an exaggeration to say the state’s facing an insurance crisis of both affordability and availability,” Ray Mueller, San Mateo County supervisor, said during a board meeting on Oct. 8.
Seven of the 12 largest insurers, including State Farm which represents about 10 percent of the market share, according to Department of Insurance data, paused writing new policies since 2023.
(Charles Hugh Smith) – I ask the question, “is the world becoming uninsurable?” not as an expert on the insurance industry but as a homeowner who can no longer obtain hurricane insurance, and as an observer of long-term trends keenly interested in the way global risks pile up either unseen, denied or misinterpreted until it’s too late to mitigate them.
The probability that we’re entering an era of globally higher risks is increasing, and this awareness is visible in headlines such as these:
This is not an abstraction, though many are treating it as a policy debate. As noted previously here, the insurance industry is not a charity, and insurers bear the costs that are increasing regardless of opinions and policy proposals. Insurers operate in the real world, and their decisions to pull out of entire regions, reduce coverage and increase premiums are all responses to soaring losses, a reality reflected in these charts.
Losses rise with inflation, of course, but the losses are rising far above background inflation.
This raises a point few seem to ponder: the world isn’t simply a political structure, yet virtually all the proposed solutions to every problem are political or technological in nature: we can solve this or that politically, or with AI. That the private-sector can trigger crises that have no political or technological fix is on very few pundits’ radar.
The problems being exposed do not lend themselves to tidy political / policy fixes that magically return the world to a past era of lower risks. Risks and losses cannot be extinguished, they can only be transferred to others. This is the intrinsic limit of political fixes: we take the risks and losses and transfer them to others lacking the political power to contest the transfer.
Or we transfer the risks and losses to the entire system, increasing the potential for a systemic collapse.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Barrick continues to be haunted. Today Mail started to seize gold bullion at their site
(Reuters)
Mali starts seizing gold stocks at Barrick site, company memo says
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-01-13 09:20 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Fadimata Kontao and Portia Crowe Reuters Monday, January 13, 2025
Mali’s government has begun enforcing a provisional order to seize gold stock at Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto site, the Canadian miner said in a note to Malian staff, warning again that it may have to suspend operations at the complex.
The move suggests that Mali’s military-led authorities are not ready to back down in a standoff over a contract based on new mining rules as they push for a greater share of revenues from Western miners.
“A provisional order to seize our existing gold stock was issued last week and the Malian government began its enforcement on Jan. 11,” Barrick said in the staff memo.
Two Barrick employees in Mali and a consultant working for mining companies confirmed the authenticity of the letter seen by Reuters. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the employees said it was sent to staff on Sunday.
Barrick has not said what volume of gold is at risk, but one of the employees said Loulo-Gounkoto’s stock was around 4 metric tons, citing internal estimates. This amounts to nearly $380 million, based on spot gold prices today. …
Although the Federal Reserve is — and thinks of itself as — part of the government, 100% of the $37 billion in paid-in stock of its twelve component Federal Reserve Banks is owned by private shareholders. This was part of the political compromise of the original 1913 Federal Reserve Act.
The shareholders are the commercial banks that are the members of the respective Federal Reserve Banks. Remarkably, these private shareholders are getting dividends from the Reserve Banks even when the combined Fed has no profits, no saved up past profits (retained earnings), and hugely negative actual capital. Any private bank which tried to pay dividends under these circumstances would be sternly prohibited by the Fed from doing so.
For the first nine months of 2024, the Federal Reserve Banks in the aggregate paid more than $1.2 billion in dividends to their shareholders. Yet at the same time, they together posted losses totaling $63 billion. On an annualized basis, they are paying dividends of $1.7 billion, for a dividend yield of about 4.5 percent, while losing about $80 billion, with negative retained earnings and capital. How is that possible — or ethical — one might wonder.
The Fed’s performance on this score was even more remarkable in 2023. For that year, the combined federal reserve banks paid $1.5 billion in dividends to the shareholders, while losing the nearly unimaginable sum of $114 billion. That was a loss of 2.6 times the total capital they claim to have.
The Fed’s officers and energetic public relations efforts assert that for the Fed, having negative capital, i.e. being technically insolvent, doesn’t matter. Even were that true, how could it justify paying dividends when there are no profits, past or present, with which to pay them.
As of January 1, 2025, the combined FRBs have accumulated losses of $216 billion from losing money in every single month since October 2022. In proper and obvious accounting, one subtracts losses from retained earnings. That is ineluctable. The Fed, though, does not do this. It wishes one to believe instead that its vast accumulated losses are an asset, opaquely called a “deferred asset,” so it can show positive capital on its balance sheet.
What do they take us for? It is easy to understand why the Fed does not want its financial statements to subtract its $216 billion in losses from its stated $7 billion in retained earnings: because then it would have to show that its actual retained earnings are negative $209 billion. Which they are.
Further subtracting that $209 billion from the total paid-in capital of $37 billion, the Fed would then have to show the world that its actual capital is negative $172 billion. Which it is. If the Fed really believes that its technical insolvency doesn’t matter, why is it intent on hiding the numbers?
Turning to the individual FRBs, as of January 1, 2025, 10 of the 12 have negative retained earnings and negative capital, being thus technically insolvent. They should not be paying any dividends. Yet two FRBs, Atlanta and St. Louis, could. It might seem odd to have two FRBs paying dividends and ten not, but it accurately reflects the regional logic of the system as designed in 1913.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is far and away the biggest and most important FRB, with the most clout. Its assets equal those of all the other eleven FRBs put together. Its accumulated losses are bigger than all the others put together.
Properly subtracting the New York FRB’s $131 billion in accumulated losses from its retained earnings of $2 billion gives it actual retained earnings of a negative $129 billion. This easily wipes out its paid-in capital of $13 billion and leaves an actual capital of negative $116 billion. The members of the New York FRB lead the parade of Fed stockholders who should not be receiving any current dividends.
Curiously, the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that Fed dividends are cumulative. Thus, if not paid, they would still have to be accrued as a liability and paid out of the profits of some future time before the American Treasury gets paid anything from those profits Fed losses do matter. They increase the federal deficit and increase the national debt. Fed dividends when the Fed has no profits increase the deficit and debt further.
It would be salutary for FRB stockholders to learn that they do have some skin in the game as equity investors and that when there are no profits, no retained earnings, and no capital, there will also be no dividends paid.
—–
Alex Pollock is a senior fellow at the Mises Institute, the author of “Finance and Philosophy — Why We’re Always Surprised,” and co-author of “Surprised Again! The Covid Crisis and the New Market Bubble.”
* * *
END
Labor’s L22 billion ‘black hole’ could have been wiped out with gold Gordon Brown sold on the cheap
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-01-11 20:30 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Oliver Trapnell GB News, London Friday, January 10, 2025
Labor’s mass sale of gold at the turn of the millennium could have covered the entirety of the L22 billion “black hole” in public finances had it been sold today instead, GB News can reveal.
From 1999 to 2002, the Labor Government, with Gordon Brown as chancellor of the Exchequer, sold off just shy of 400 tonnes of Britain’s gold in a bid to diversify the UK’s assets.
Brown sold around half of Britain’s gold reserves for a total of $3.5 billion (about L2.14 billion based on the exchange rate in 1999) but had it been sold today, it could have paid for the “black hole” in the UK’s public finances with around L5 billion in headroom.
Speaking to GB News about what critics dubbed at the time “Brown’s Bottom,” former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng said: “The sale of the gold at rock-bottom prices was a huge blunder. “We should never have sold it and if we hadn’t we should still keep it regardless.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage echoed Kwarteng’s comments, also branding the sale “disastrous.” …
Eastern demand continues to defeat Fed’s effort to cap gold, silver on Comex, Maguire says
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-01-11 21:29 Section: Daily Dispatches
9:30p ET Saturday, January 12, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Eastern physical demand for gold and silver is continuing to overwhelm the Federal Reserve’s effort to cap their prices with derivatives on the New York Commodities Exchange, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program. Maguire adds that the United States soon will need a higher price for gold and thus a higher valuation of its gold reserves to back the dollar.
The program is 59 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST MUST VIEW…YOUTUBE/KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT 205
/LIVE FROM THE VAULT 205
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY
END
end
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.77 PTS OR 0.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 190.15 PTS OR 1.00%
// Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.31%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3320 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3565// Oil DOWN TO 78,77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.3350
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3565
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 7.77 PTS OR 0.25%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 190.15 PTS OR 1.00%
2. Nikkei closed HOLIDAY
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 109.81 EURO FALLS TO 1.0200 DOWN 41 BASIS PTS HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.198 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.11…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5615 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.741 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.249
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.366
3j Gold at $2671.50.95/Silver at: 29.77 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 09/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 102.89
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.11 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.197% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9155 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9343 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.761 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.941. DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.440 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.50…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9115 UP 7 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.480 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.206 UP 4 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Tumble As Yields Rise, Oil Soars
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 08:00 AM
US equity futures tumbled to the lowest level since November as the global risk-off tone resumed amid a surge in oil prices pushing yields higher, with this Wednesday’s CPI print the next global catalyst. Bond yields jumped (again) as the curve bear flattens and the USD resumes its move higher in what has now become a boring daily trade where the world is once again convinced the “exception” US can decouple form a world where Japan, China and Europe are all contracting and where the US can somehow keep growing (spoiler: it can’t). As of 7:30am, S&P futures are down 0.8% to 5820, on pace for their 7th decline in the past 10 days, and approaching a level last seen in late-September; Nasdaq futures slump even more, down 1.1% with Mag7 names under pressure premarket with NVDA/TSLA the biggest losers. European shares dropped 0.9%, with technology names leading the declines. Credit ETFs are outperforming pre-mkt and may be an area of safety into CPI. Commodities are also stronger, led by Energy on news Biden hopes to blow up Trump’s presidency by sending oil prices soaring thanks to additional US sanctions on Russian oil which may impact 1mm bpd. Today’s macro data focus is the NY Fed’s 1-yr inflation expectations.
In premarket trading, tech shares, including Tesla, Palantir and Nvidia were among the high-profile losers as a fresh rise in bond yields weighed on tech and growth stocks. Most other Mag Seven names were also broadly lower (Apple -1%, vidia -3.3%, Microsoft -0.9%, Alphabet -0.8%, Amazon -1.1%, Meta Platforms -0.9% and Tesla -2.8%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Moderna is down 20% after the company slashed its revenue guidance for 2025 which missed the average analyst estimate
Amplitude and SEMrush shares gain after Morgan Stanley upgrades the stocks in a reshuffle of the software sector. Amplitude (AMPL US) +1%, SEMrush (SEMR US) +1%
Insurance stocks have been oversold over the past week, according to analysts, as wildfires rip through parts of Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service issued a “particularly dangerous situation” warning for Malibu, the San Fernando Valley, and large portions of Ventura County.
Watch Allstate, Travelers, AIG, Chubb, Mercury General, RLI and Skyward Specialty Insurance; also watch California utility stocks Edison International and PG&E.
Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI US) shares rise 39% after Bloomberg reported Johnson & Johnson is in talks to acquire the biopharmaceutical company focused on treatments for central nervous system disorders.
Sage Therapeutics shares soar 39% after Biogen made a non-binding proposal to acquire the remaining shares of the biopharmaceutical company following the close of markets Friday.
World markets, already in turmoil since the start of 2025, suffered a fresh setback on Friday from a blowout US jobs report – which will be revised sharply lower in a month or so – that prompted traders to slash their wagers on Fed rate cuts to less than 30 basis points for the whole of 2025. The figures sparked a selloff that wiped out the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain and sent Bloomberg’s dollar index to two-year highs. 10Y Treasury yields rose further to touch a 14-month high, up more than 15 basis points this year, and more than 100 bps higher since the Fed cut rates by 100 bps. Thirty-year borrowing costs hovered just below the psychologically key 5% threshold.
“As long as the US fixed-income market hasn’t stabilized, it will be difficult for the equity market to regain strength,” said Benjamin Melman, chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “We need some stabilization, but as we are seeing this morning, it is not going to happen today.”
Yields jumped after a surprise wave of US sanctions by Biden on Russia – one week before the Trump inauguration – sent Brent crude futures to a five-month high above $81 a barrel. If the move reduces the global crude surplus, it could keep energy prices elevated, lifting price pressures as discussed earlier. The rise in Treasury yields and the dollar is affecting markets worldwide, raising borrowing costs across Asia and Europe. UK assets, which have been at the epicenter of the turmoil, continued to lose ground, with 10-year gilt yields holding near 2008 highs, and the pound extending last week’s 1.7% slump to trade at the weakest since November 2023. Rabobank analysts said that while the UK’s fiscal deficit was a major concern, “a large part of the move higher in UK long-term interest rates reflects the push higher in global rates, which is linked to a US-led rise in risk premia.”
Attention turns next to UK inflation data due Wednesday. The US also releases inflation figures on the same day, with economists forecasting the year-on-year print to have picked up to 2.9%. That could further reduce bets on Fed easing. Already Bank of America has moved to predicting no rate cuts at all this year, and in fact sees the risk of a hike, echoing what we said more than a month ago.
Rothschild’s Melman considers the data to be crucial, given Trump’s pledge to implement policies that are widely seen as inflationary. “If we have confirmation that the disinflation process stalled even before Donald Trump’s re-election, it could provide some more tension for US fixed income,” he said.
European shares dropped 0.9%, with technology names leading the declines. Major markets are all lower with regional indices down at least one std dev as bond yields move higher. The technology sector underperformed, with suppliers to Apple dropping the most after an analyst predicted that iPhone shipments will miss Wall Street estimates this year. Commodityh-related Equities are higher with the move higher in oil. The moves in bonds are attracting buyers. Value is leading, Cyclicals are lagging. UKX -0.4%, SX5E -0.9%, SXXP -0.7%, DAX -0.7%. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
Oxford Nanopore shares rise as much as 25%, the steepest gain since September 2021, after the British DNA-sequencing firm issued a trading update that analysts found reassuring.
Entain shares rose as much as 9.3% after the firm reiterated its FY24 guidance, allaying fears after rival Flutter recently warned profits would take a hit in the final quarter of last year due to unfavorable US sports results.
Porsche shares rise as much as 3.8% after the German carmaker released data saying it delivered 310,718 cars in 2024, a 3% decline from 2023. UBS analysts said the data confirms expectations on sequential volume improvement in 4Q over 3Q.
BioMerieux shares gain as much as 6%, the most since Aug. 22, after the French medical technology firm agreed to buy the remaining 80% stake of privately held Norwegian diagnostics company SpinChip it doesn’t already own for about €111 million.
SMA Solar shares gain as much as 16%, the most since February last year, after Jefferies raised the recommendation on the solar-equipment manufacturer to buy from hold, citing a valuation at historical lows.
Sobi gains as much as 4.7%, the most since October, after the biotechnology firm said its full-year 2024 revenue was higher than a previous company estimate, coming in at about SEK 26 billion.
Idorsia shares drop as much as 15% after the company said it will propose changing current terms of a convertible bond due this year in order to avoid short-term liquidity constraints.
European chip stocks drop amid a widspread pullback in growth stocks. Apple suppliers slipped after an influential analyst on Friday projected iPhone shipments this year are likely to fall short, while STMicro dropped following a downgrade at TD Cowen and Aixtron fell after H&A downgraded the stock.
Energy stocks outperform as crude oil jumps for a second session to hit the highest level in more than four months.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a fourth session as sentiment remained downbeat, weighed by reduced expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts and an ongoing selloff in Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index dropped as much as 1.7% to touch its lowest level since August last year. TSMC, Samsung Electronics and Hon Hai were among the largest contributors to its fall. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Philippines led declines in the region, while stocks in India sank as the rupee hit a new low. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Downward pressure on Asian markets has intensified after stronger-than-expected US jobs data triggered a recalibration on Fed cut expectations for this year. Sentiment has been particularly weak for Chinese stocks, with concern over increased trade tensions under Donald Trump pushing the MSCI China Index into a bear market last week. TGhe Hang Seng fell more than 1% and Shanghai Composite slips 0.4%. The ASX 200 drops 1.2% and Taiex slumps 2.3%. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
China has been another source of pressure for market sentiment, with shares extending losses even after data showed record exports last year, which however was driven by a rush to buy Chinese goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The offshore-traded yuan dropped close to a record low against the dollar, forcing authorities to ramp up support for the currency and tweak capital curbs.
In FX, the dollar climbed against most majors. The pound weakens 0.6% amid UK fiscal woes and euro falls 0.3%. Offshore yuan ticks higher after PBOC boosts support for the currency.
In rates, treasuries are extending Friday’s slide with front-end yields cheaper by about 3bp, as investors further reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts based on strong December jobs data. Additional rise in oil prices compounds upside pressure on Treasury yield, with WTI crude futures up 2% after gaining 3.6% Friday. This week’s corporate new-issue calendar is expected to be front-loaded ahead of the December CPI report Wednesday. 10-year yields around 4.78% are ~2bp cheaper on the day with bunds and gilts keeping pace. Bear-flattening leaves 2s10s, 5s30s spreads tighter by 1bp and 2.5bp on the day, extending Friday’s move. Fed-dated OIS prices in only about 4bp of Fe easing over the next two policy meetings and just 23bp by the end of the year. Corporate new-issue slate already includes several items; $40 billion to $45 billion of offerings are anticipated this week, most before the midweek release of December CPI. Treasury auctions resume Jan. 22 with 20-year bond reopening
In commodities, crude oil extended Friday’s rally on sweeping US sanctions on Russian energy industry. WTI crude futures jump almost 2% to a three-month high around $78-handle. Gold dips to near $2,685. Bitcoin is steady around $94,500.
The US economic data calendar includes December New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and federal budget balance (2pm). Ahead this week are PPI, CPI, retail sales, housing starts and industrial production. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Schmid, Williams, Barkin, Kashkari and Goolsbee are slated later in the week
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 5,811.50
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $80.75/bbl
MXAP down 1.2% to 175.76
MXAPJ down 1.8% to 549.21
Nikkei down 1.0% to 39,190.40
Topix down 0.8% to 2,714.12
Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 18,874.14
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,160.76
Sensex down 1.4% to 76,280.03
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 8,191.92
Kospi down 1.0% to 2,489.56
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 507.73
German 10Y yield up 2.6 bps at 2.62%
Euro down 0.6% to $1.0184
Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,685.35
US Dollar Index up 0.43% to 110.13
Top Overnight News
Russian Kremlin says there are no specific preparations underway for a possible US President-Elect Trump and Russian President Putin meeting.
Oil hit a four-month high as US sanctions on Russia’s energy industry raised supply concerns. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose more than 1% early Monday, adding to a 3.7% advance Friday when the U.S. unveiled much-anticipated curbs on Russia’s energy industry. The rise is adding to jitters in global bond markets, fueling fears of higher consumer-energy prices that could juice overall inflation. BBG
US president-elect Donald Trump intends to push Ukraine to lower its age of conscription in an effort to stabilize the country’s front lines ahead of direct negotiations with Russia. FT
China’s trade numbers for Dec exceeded expectations, including exports (+10.7% vs. the Street +7.5%) and imports (+1% vs. the Street -1%), although the country’s continued dependence on exports is likely to stoke trade tensions with the incoming Trump administration. RTRS
China’s trade surplus reached a record $992 billion in 2024 as exporters raced to get ahead of Donald Trump’s policies just one week before he returns to the White House. Bloomberg Economics expects the tariff-driven front-loading will boost Chinese exports further. BBG
The PBOC ramped up its support for the yuan with a verbal warning and tweaks to its capital controls. The offshore yuan edged higher. Governor Pan Gongsheng said policy focus will shift more to consumption. BBG
The ECB will probably cut rates further to ensure it delivers on its price stability mandate, Chief Economist Philip Lane told a conference in Hong Kong. Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the central bank should continue cutting irrespective of what the Fed does. BBG
Apple Inc. sold 5% fewer iPhones globally and lost ground to Chinese rivals in the final quarter of last year, reflecting the absence of Apple Intelligence in its largest market outside the US. BBG
J&J is said to be in talks to buy Intra-Cellular Therapies, which has a market value of about $10 billion. ITCI shares up ~35% in the premarket. BBG
US defense spending – Def. Sec. Austin recommends Congress boost the Pentagon’s budget by ~$50B, taking it to ~$1T. BBG
Barclays expects Fed to deliver one 25bps rate cut in June 2025 (vs prev. forecast of one cut in March and one in June).
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly negative in reaction to the hot NFP jobs report and subsequent rise in yields as Fed rate cut bets were unwound, while risk sentiment was also not helped by the holiday closure in Japan and failed to benefit from Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was lower with underperformance in tech, financials and consumer discretionary sectors, while energy bucked the trend owing to a surge in oil prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured at the open as participants awaited the latest Chinese trade data but pared some of the losses following comments from PBoC Governor Pan that they have the confidence and means to overcome difficulties in the economy and will use interest rate and RRR tools to keep liquidity ample, while sentiment then remained subdued amid the broad risk-aversion and failed to benefit from the better-than-expected Chinese trade figures.
Top Asian News
PBoC raised the cross-border macro adjustment parameter to 1.75 (prev. raised to 1.50 in July 2023), while it held a meeting for the FX market in Beijing and pledged to strengthen FX market management, as well as discussed to resolutely keep yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels. PBoC also said it will increase forex market resilience, strengthen the forex market, deal with behaviours disrupting market orders and prevent exchange rate overshooting risks. Furthermore, it reiterated the yuan rate will stay at a reasonable and balanced level.
PBoC Governor Pan said China’s economy addressed risks and challenges in recent years, while they have confidence and means to overcome difficulties in the economy and will use the interest rate and RRR tools to keep liquidity ample. Pan reaffirmed China is to raise the fiscal deficit and will continue to be the world economy’s engine. Furthermore, he said policy should shift to investment and consumption but also noted that challenges remain in China’s economic development.
PBoC Governor Pan met with BoE Governor Bailey in Beijing on Saturday and discussed financial stability and cooperation, while Pan also met with top executives from HSBC, Standard Chartered and the London Stock Exchange. It was separately reported that UK and China will explore a wealth connect program and they announced the launch of an OTC bond business with China to launch a sustainable government bond in London this year.
HKMA said China is to encourage listings and debt issuance in Hong Kong, while the HKMA and PBoC will set up a CNY 100bln liquidity facility for trade finance. HKMA also announced to extend trading hours for the Bond Connect Southbound Scheme with the settlement time for the Bond Connect to be extended to 04:30 pm local time (08:30GMT/03:30EST) which includes USD and EUR bonds, while it is to expand onshore investor choices for international bonds through the link.
South Korean impeached President Yoon’s lawyer said Yoon will be absent from the first hearing in the impeachment trial out of safety concerns.
Chinese Auto Industry Association official says China’s vehicles sales estimated to grow 4.7% in 2025 (vs 4.5% growth in 2024 and 12% in 2023), NEV sales seen growing 24.4% in 2025, and vehicle exports estimated to grow 5.8% to 6.2mln units in 2025. China 2024 vehicle sales +4.5% Y/Y (prev. +12% in 2023), according to the industry association; December vehicle sales +10.5% Y/Y (prev. 11.7% in November); 2024 NEV sales +39.7% Y/Y, Dec NEV sales +34% Y/Y.
European bourses began the week entirely in the red and have gradually edged lower as the morning progressed; as it stands, indices reside at worst levels with downside in excess of 1.0% for the Euro Stoxx 50. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a handful of industries residing in positive territory. Energy is by far the clear outperformer today, buoyed by the strength in oil prices. Tech is the underperformer today, swept away by the risk-off sentiment and as traders digest comments from Apple watcher Ming-Chi Kuo, who said the iPhone maker is facing challenges in 2025, including stagnant iPhone growth and declining Chinese market share. US equity futures are entirely in the red, in a continuation of the downside seen following the strong NFP report; NQ -1.4% the underperformer given the broad tone, yield advances and specific Tech pressure. Barclays European Equity Strategy: Cuts UK FTSE 250 to Neutral from Overweight.
Top European News
ECB’s Vujčić says under current uncertainty, better to move gradually as the ECB is doing; expectations for gradual meeting-by-meeting approach justified; near-term expectations of markets seem justified; developments broadly in line with ECB projections. Exchange rate has not weighed much on ECB policy decisions so far, but must monitor.
UK Chancellor Reeves said the fiscal rules set in the October Budget are non-negotiable and that there undoubtedly have been moves in global financial markets. Reeves said that they will take action to ensure that they meet fiscal rules and she is committed to having one Budget a year which will be in Autumn. Reeves also announced that the UK will earn GBP 600mln from five-year agreements made with China.
UK Chancellor Reeves is set to tell British regulators that they need to embrace risk and “strip back” overly cautious rules that are stifling economic growth, according to The Times.
ECB’s Lane said Europe’s economy is still in recovery from the pandemic and their baseline for Europe is a recovery but noted a modest Europe recovery has a downside alternative, while he expects consumption to improve this year and said there is probably more easing to come. In a separate interview, Lane said we need to make sure that the economy does not grow too slowly, via Der Standard; need to work out the middle path of being neither too aggressive or too cautious in our actions For inflation to be sustainably at target, there would need to be a further decline in services inflation from around 4% currently.
ECB’s Rehn said Europe must not get caught off guard regarding a trade war and the EU should not take a beating in the case of tariffs. Adds, the direction of rates is clear, speed and scale of cuts depends on data, via Bloomberg TV. Inflation is moving in the correct direction, quite confident it is stabilising at 2%
Brussels Airlines said it will need to cancel a significant number of flights at Brussels Airport on Monday due to a strike.
Fitch affirmed Austria at AA+; outlook revised to negative, while it stated the outlook for Austria’s economy remains subdued with a forecast of weak real GDP growth of 0.8% for 2025.
FX
USD has kicked the week off on a strong footing, in extension of Friday’s post-NFP buying. As it stands, markets no longer fully price a 25bps cut by the Fed this year vs. 41bps pre-NFP. For today’s docket, US NY SCE is the main highlight. DXY has cracked above 110 for the first time since 10th Nov 2022; 110.99 was the high that day.
Last week’s selling pressure in EUR/USD has continued into this week with the pair slipping onto a 1.01 handle for the first time since 11th Nov 2023; 1.0163 was the low that day. This week’s EZ macro calendar is a light one. However, we did hear from ECB Chief Economist Lane over the weekend, noting that there is probably more easing to come.
JPY is the marginal outperformer across the majors with not much in the way of fresh macro drivers for Japan with Japanese markets closed today. Nonetheless, attention remains on the finely-poised 24th January policy announcement which sees a 25bps hike vs. unchanged rate as a near coin-flip. USD/JPY currently sits just below Friday’s 157.22-158.87 range but is yet to breach 157.00 to the downside.
GBP has kicked the week off on a negative footing in an extension of the selling pressure seen last week. Cable has delved to its lowest level since Nov 2023 at 1.2124. Nothing incremental from a UK standpoint has happened over the weekend, however, the ongoing advances in the UK rates space are clearly acting as a drag on the pound.
Antipodeans are both steady vs. the broadly mildly stronger USD. Both saw some support overnight amid mild strength in the CNH after the PBoC continued to defend the currency with a firmer-than-expected reference rate setting and raised its cross-border macro adjustment parameter for the first time since July 2023 to 1.75 from 1.50.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1885 vs exp. 7.3442 (prev. 7.1891).
Fixed Income
USTs start the week under pressure, continuing the hawkish impulse from NFP on Friday with strong Chinese export data not helping; on this, we wait to see if President-elect Trump comments on the data with reference to his touted tariffs. As it stands, USTs are at the low-end of a 107-06+ to 107-15 band, which marks another contact trough. Amidst this, yields are firmer across the curve with the short-end leading and reflecting the trimming of Fed easing expectations.
Bunds are pressured, in-fitting with the above. The data docket has been particularly light in Europe with Italian supply the only scheduled update. A few ECB speakers have appeared today, but have had little impact on price action. Currently towards the trough of a 130.57-90 band which marks a fresh contract low. Technicians tout support at 130.48 before looking to the 130.00 mark.
Gilts opened 59 ticks lower at the 89.00 mark, matching last week’s contract low, before extending to an incremental fresh base at 88.96. Since, the benchmark has stabilised just above opening levels. While the benchmark hit a new contract low the 10yr yield remains just shy of last week’s peak. Thus far, today’s best is 4.905% vs 4.925% from last Thursday.
Italy sells EUR 2.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.50-2.75bln 2.70% 2027 and EUR 3bln vs exp. EUR 2.75-3bln 3.15% 2031 BTP; no real reaction in BTPs.
Commodities
WTI and Brent prices are firmer this morning despite the stronger Dollar but against the backdrop of geopolitics. Prices gained from the open amid expectations of Russian crude supply disruption after the US recently toughened sanctions on Russia’s energy sector targeting more than 200 entities and individuals, while it was also reported that Israel struck a number of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
That being said, a couple of short-lived downticks were seen on reports that a breakthrough has been reached in Doha, a final draft of the Gaza Ceasefire and hostage release has been sent to Hamas and Israel for approval, according to an official cited by Reuters. However, it was then reported that Israel has reportedly not received a draft proposal for the Gaza ceasefire deal, according to an Israeli official.
WTI trades towards the upper end of a USD 76.54-78.58/bbl range while Brent resides in a USD 79.76-81.68/bbl parameter.
Spot gold is subdued amid the dollar strength but losses are cushioned by ongoing geopolitics alongside the risk-off sentiment. Currently resides in a USD 2,679.31-2,693.55/oz parameter and within Friday’s USD 2,664.07-2,697.95/oz range.
Copper holds a mild upward bias despite the dollar’s strength and risk aversion, possibly on the back of better-than-expected Chinese trade data overnight coupled with hopes of a Chinese stimulus. Desks also suggested iron ore prices gained almost 2% on the back of stimulus prospects.
Iran shipped out nearly 3mln bbls of oil stockpiled in China in which the proceeds could reportedly be used to fund its allied militias in the Middle East, according to WSJ.
Goldman Sachs said tougher US and UK sanctions on Russian oil could lift oil prices above USD 85/bbl, while it also commented that TTF price risks remain skewed to the upside despite moderation in cold weather. Goldman Sachs also commented that while the latest round of sanctions has mostly focused on oil and the potential impact on LNG supply is very limited, it keeps global gas balances more vulnerable at the margin to tightening shocks and to the risk that TTF might need to price oil-switching in a EUR 65-86/MWh range this summer.
Saudi Energy Minister says Saudi Arabia to enrich, sell and produce yellow cake from Uranium.
Middle East crude benchmarks jump to premiums of around USD 3/bbl above Dubai quotes, highest since Oct 2023, according to Reuters data.
Russia’s Kremlin says hope Russia will be able to counteract the US attempt to undermine Russian companies; says the US sanctions are bound to destabilise global energy markets. Will monitor the new sanctions and seek to minimise them.
Indian Government source is examining the impact of US sanctions on Vostok Project; says the spike in oil prices in a knee-jerk reaction; will not take Russia oil from sanctioned entities and in sanctioned vessels, via Reuters
Six EU nations call for a lower G7 price cap on Russian oil, according to a document cited by Reuters.
Geopolitics: Middle East
A breakthrough has been reached in Doha, a final draft of the Gaza Ceasefire and hostage release has been sent to Hamas and Israel for approval, according to an official cited by Reuters.
Israeli Finance Minister says the Gaza ceasefire deal is a catastrophe for Israel’s national security. Says will not be a part of surrender deal that will include the release of terrorists and the cessation of war.
Israel has reportedly not received a draft proposal for the Gaza ceasefire deal, according to an Israeli official.
Israeli official says they are “Waiting for Hamas’ answer, the hostage deal outline is clear. Israel has come a long, long way”, according to Reporter Stein.
Israeli PM Netanyahu is to send the head of Mossad to Qatar for hostage talks, according to the PM’s office cited by Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with US President Biden on Sunday in which they discussed negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and a hostage deal, while Biden stressed the immediate need for a ceasefire and return of hostages, as well as the need for a surge in humanitarian aid enabled by a stoppage in the fighting.
Israel’s Foreign Minister said Tel Aviv is determined to reach a truce agreement in Gaza, according to Israeli media cited by Asharq News.
Israel’s army said it targeted a number of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon based on intelligence information, according to Sky News Arabia.
Syria’s de facto ruler Al-Sharaa said he discussed with Lebanon’s caretaker PM Mikati the issue of Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks, while Mikati said they will work with Syria to secure the land borders and follow up on land and sea border delineation.
Western and Arab foreign ministers and diplomats began a regional conference with Syrian Foreign Minister Shibani in Riyadh on Sunday.
German Foreign Minister said Germany proposes a smart approach to sanctions so the Syrian population gets relief and a quick dividend from the transition of power, while Germany will provide an additional EUR 50mln to Syria for food, emergency shelters and medical care.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian soldiers captured North Korean military personnel in Russia’s Kursk region, while he later commented that Kyiv is ready to hand over North Korean soldiers if North Korean leader Kim can organise their exchange for Ukrainians captive in Russia. It was separately reported that a South Korean lawmaker said North Korean troop fatalities in Ukraine exceeded 3,000.
Russia took control of the settlements of Shevchenko, Kalynove and Yantarne in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS.
Russian Foreign Ministry said new US sanctions against the energy sector are an effort to harm Russia’s economy at the cost of risking destabilisation of global markets and Russia will respond to Washington’s hostile actions.
US President Biden said on Friday that as long as they keep Western Europe united on Ukraine, there is a real chance Ukrainians can prevail, while he added that Russian President Putin is in tough shape right now and it is important that Putin does not have more breathing room to do what he is doing.
US President-elect Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser Waltz said he expects a call between Trump and Russian President Putin in the coming days and weeks, according to an ABC News interview.
Geopolitics: Other
White House said US President Biden discussed trilateral maritime security and economic cooperation with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines, while they discussed China’s dangerous, unlawful behaviour in the South China Sea and agreed on the importance of continued coordination in the Indo-Pacific.
Denmark’s government sent private messages to the Trump team expressing a willingness to discuss increased US military and security presence in Greenland, according to Axios.
Japan will test hypersonic missile tracking with space sensors and will deploy sensors which is set for a first launch in fiscal 2025 to resupply the International Space Station, according to Nikkei.
US Event Calendar
11:00: Dec. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectat, prior 2.97%
14:00: Dec. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$73.8b, prior -$366.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s hard to determine what’s icier at the moment, global bond markets or the weather across much of Northern Europe and even New York where sub zero temperatures have been the norm in recent days. The good news is that the icy ground added 70 yards to my drives on the golf course yesterday. The bad news is that they were invariable bouncing into the rough, a bunker or a ditch!
As the weather warms up a bit, whether the deep freeze in bond markets continues may be determined by how US CPI on Wednesday materialises after Friday’s blockbuster payrolls report. Elsewhere in the US the main highlights are the New York Fed 1-yr inflation expectations (today), PPI (tomorrow), retail sales (Thursday), building starts and permits and industrial production (Friday), and the unofficial start of earnings season on Wednesday with a selection of big banks reporting.
Outside of the US, the key events are UK CPI and European Industrial production (Wednesday), UK monthly GDP and the ECB account of the December meeting (Thursday) and China GDP on Friday. The full calendar of events, including central bank speakers, is at the end as usual but lets now go through the main highlights in more details. There’s nowhere else to start other than Wednesday’s US CPI that occurs after 10yr UST yields climbed +16.1bps last week to close Friday at their highest since October 2023.
Our economists expect headline (+0.40% mom forecast vs. +0.31% last month) to be impacted by strong food and energy and eclipse a tamer core (+0.23% vs. 0.31%). This would ensure a YoY rate of 2.9% (+0.2pp) and 3.3% (unch) respectively. The core rate’s steady decline from late 2022 petered in the second half of 2024 around current levels and that’s before Trump’s policies take effect. See our economists’ preview here with a registration link to their webinar immediate after the release. Amongst other things they discuss how rents will boost this month’s release but with signs of rental disinflation ahead. The curve ball going forward will of course be policy.
For US PPI on Tuesday, headline (+0.4% vs. +0.4%) and core (+0.2% vs. +0.2%) will likely be similar in magnitude to CPI but as ever we will be most focused on the PPI categories that feed into the core PCE deflator namely, health care services, airfares and portfolio management. Elsewhere Thursday’s retail sales is likely to be strong given holiday spending trends in December with headline (+0.6% vs. +0.7%), ex auto (+0.5% vs. +0.2%), and retail control (+0.3% + 0.4%) all firm.
In terms of earnings, the kick-off on Wednesday sees JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock report. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will follow on Thursday, when investors will be also closely watching the Taiwanese semiconductor company TSMC. Our US equity strategists preview the upcoming earnings season here and expect S&P 500 earnings growth near 13% in Q4, similar to the low double-digit growth seen in recent quarters.
There are also a few political points of interest this week with Senate confirmation hearings for Trump’s cabinet nominees including Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State and Attorney General among others. In France, the new Prime Minister Bayrou will deliver his General Policy Statement tomorrow (see our European economists’ preview of France’s 2025 budget here) which will likely be followed by a vote of no confidence which at this stage he will likely win due to abstentions from the far right and the socialist party. The note from our French economist provides an up to date state of play in French politics and answers some questions as to what is likely to happen next.
Overnight in Asia, markets are catching down to Friday’s falls despite stronger than expected Chinese exports data this morning (YoY growth of 10.7% vs 7.5% expected). The CSI 300 is down -0.52%, with the Hang Seng declining even more (-1.20%). Elsewhere in the region, the Kospi has dropped by -1.04% so far with Japanese markets closed for a holiday. Meanwhile, US equity futures show continued risk-off sentiment with the S&P 500 losing -0.44% and the Nasdaq 100 down by -0.60% as we go to print. As you’ll see below a further spike in Oil isn’t helping.
Recapping last week now and the main story for markets was the relentless bond selloff, with long-end borrowing costs pushing higher across the world. Several data releases pushed that selloff forward, with the main ones being the ISM services index on Tuesday and the US jobs report on Friday, which showed that nonfarm payrolls were up by +256k in December (vs. +165k expected). On top of that, the unemployment rate fell a tenth to 4.1%. And the moves got even more support after the University of Michigan’s 5-10yr inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% in January, the highest since 2008.
All that reignited concerns that the Fed and other central banks would have to keep rates higher for longer. In fact by the weekend, markets were only pricing 29bps of cuts by the Fed’s December meeting, down from 39bps at the start of the week. And in turn, that pushed the 10yr Treasury yield up +16.1bps (+7.0bps Friday) to 4.76%, which is its highest closing level since October 2023. That momentum was clear in Europe too, where yields on 10yr bunds moved up +17.0bps (+2.8bps Friday) to 2.59%, their highest since July. It also marked a 6th consecutive weekly increase for the 10yr bund, which is the first time that’s happened since 2022, back when the ECB were hiking by 75bps per meeting.
One of the worst affected countries was the UK last week, which came under intense market pressure. For instance, their 10yr gilt yield was up +24.5bps (+2.7bps Friday) to 4.84%, which was its biggest weekly jump in the last year. Moreover, it pushed the 10yr yield up to its highest level since 2008, adding to the risk that the government could break its fiscal rules unless they announced another round of fiscal consolidation. That pressure was also evident on the pound sterling, which was the worst-performing G10 currency last week, weakening by -1.74% (-0.76% Friday) against the US Dollar to $1.2207, its lowest closing level since November 2023.
Those bond moves weren’t helped by fresh rises in commodity prices, which added to fears about inflationary pressures. Brent crude oil saw its highest weekly close since July at $79.76/bbl, with a +3.69% jump on Friday after the outgoing Biden administration announced a new broad set of sanctions against the Russian oil industry. Brent crude futures are up another +1.88% this morning. In addition, copper posted its biggest weekly gain since September, with a +5.66% rise (-0.13% Friday), whilst gold was up +1.88% (-0.89% Friday).
Finally, equities put in a divergent performance around the world. In the US, the S&P 500 fell for a second week running with a -1.94% decline (-1.54% Friday). Similarly in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell -1.77% (-1.05% Friday), and China’s Shanghai Comp was down -1.34% (-1.33% Friday). However, European equities put in a much stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 up for a third consecutive week with a +0.65% gain (-0.84% Friday), whilst the DAX was up +1.55% (-0.50% Friday). Impressive outperformance.
2B) EUROPEAN REPORT
DXY tops 110, Gilts hit another contract low & crude in focus amid Gaza ceasefire reports – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 05:39 AM
Equities continue to slip in a continuation of the downside seen following the strong NFP report.
DXY is stronger and briefly topped 110.00, GBP remains the underperformer.
Fixed benchmarks weighed on in a continuation of the post-NFP trade, Gilts hit another incremental contract low.
Crude surges on US-Russia oil sanctions, with some choppiness surrounding Gaza ceasefire talks.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses began the week entirely in the red and have gradually edged lower as the morning progressed; as it stands, indices reside at worst levels with downside in excess of 1.0% for the Euro Stoxx 50.
European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a handful of industries residing in positive territory. Energy is by far the clear outperformer today, buoyed by the strength in oil prices. Tech is the underperformer today, swept away by the risk-off sentiment and as traders digest comments from Apple watcher Ming-Chi Kuo, who said the iPhone maker is facing challenges in 2025, including stagnant iPhone growth and declining Chinese market share.
US equity futures are entirely in the red, in a continuation of the downside seen following the strong NFP report; NQ -1.4% the underperformer given the broad tone, yield advances and specific Tech pressure.
Barclays European Equity Strategy: Cuts UK FTSE 250 to Neutral from Overweight.
USD has kicked the week off on a strong footing, in extension of Friday’s post-NFP buying. As it stands, markets no longer fully price a 25bps cut by the Fed this year vs. 41bps pre-NFP. For today’s docket, US NY SCE is the main highlight. DXY has cracked above 110 for the first time since 10th Nov 2022; 110.99 was the high that day.
Last week’s selling pressure in EUR/USD has continued into this week with the pair slipping onto a 1.01 handle for the first time since 11th Nov 2023; 1.0163 was the low that day. This week’s EZ macro calendar is a light one. However, we did hear from ECB Chief Economist Lane over the weekend, noting that there is probably more easing to come.
JPY is the marginal outperformer across the majors with not much in the way of fresh macro drivers for Japan with Japanese markets closed today. Nonetheless, attention remains on the finely-poised 24th January policy announcement which sees a 25bps hike vs. unchanged rate as a near coin-flip. USD/JPY currently sits just below Friday’s 157.22-158.87 range but is yet to breach 157.00 to the downside.
GBP has kicked the week off on a negative footing in an extension of the selling pressure seen last week. Cable has delved to its lowest level since Nov 2023 at 1.2124. Nothing incremental from a UK standpoint has happened over the weekend, however, the ongoing advances in the UK rates space are clearly acting as a drag on the pound.
Antipodeans are both steady vs. the broadly mildly stronger USD. Both saw some support overnight amid mild strength in the CNH after the PBoC continued to defend the currency with a firmer-than-expected reference rate setting and raised its cross-border macro adjustment parameter for the first time since July 2023 to 1.75 from 1.50.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1885 vs exp. 7.3442 (prev. 7.1891).
USTs start the week under pressure, continuing the hawkish impulse from NFP on Friday with strong Chinese export data not helping; on this, we wait to see if President-elect Trump comments on the data with reference to his touted tariffs. As it stands, USTs are at the low-end of a 107-06+ to 107-15 band, which marks another contact trough. Amidst this, yields are firmer across the curve with the short-end leading and reflecting the trimming of Fed easing expectations.
Bunds are pressured, in-fitting with the above. The data docket has been particularly light in Europe with Italian supply the only scheduled update. A few ECB speakers have appeared today, but have had little impact on price action. Currently towards the trough of a 130.57-90 band which marks a fresh contract low. Technicians tout support at 130.48 before looking to the 130.00 mark.
Gilts opened 59 ticks lower at the 89.00 mark, matching last week’s contract low, before extending to an incremental fresh base at 88.96. Since, the benchmark has stabilised just above opening levels. While the benchmark hit a new contract low the 10yr yield remains just shy of last week’s peak. Thus far, today’s best is 4.905% vs 4.925% from last Thursday.
Italy sells EUR 2.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.50-2.75bln 2.70% 2027 and EUR 3bln vs exp. EUR 2.75-3bln 3.15% 2031 BTP; no real reaction in BTPs.
WTI and Brent prices are firmer this morning despite the stronger Dollar but against the backdrop of geopolitics. Prices gained from the open amid expectations of Russian crude supply disruption after the US recently toughened sanctions on Russia’s energy sector targeting more than 200 entities and individuals, while it was also reported that Israel struck a number of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
That being said, a couple of short-lived downticks were seen on reports that a breakthrough has been reached in Doha, a final draft of the Gaza Ceasefire and hostage release has been sent to Hamas and Israel for approval, according to an official cited by Reuters. However, it was then reported that Israel has reportedly not received a draft proposal for the Gaza ceasefire deal, according to an Israeli official.
WTI trades towards the upper end of a USD 76.54-78.58/bbl range while Brent resides in a USD 79.76-81.68/bbl parameter.
Spot gold is subdued amid the dollar strength but losses are cushioned by ongoing geopolitics alongside the risk-off sentiment. Currently resides in a USD 2,679.31-2,693.55/oz parameter and within Friday’s USD 2,664.07-2,697.95/oz range.
Copper holds a mild upward bias despite the dollar’s strength and risk aversion, possibly on the back of better-than-expected Chinese trade data overnight coupled with hopes of a Chinese stimulus. Desks also suggested iron ore prices gained almost 2% on the back of stimulus prospects.
Iran shipped out nearly 3mln bbls of oil stockpiled in China in which the proceeds could reportedly be used to fund its allied militias in the Middle East, according to WSJ.
Goldman Sachs said tougher US and UK sanctions on Russian oil could lift oil prices above USD 85/bbl, while it also commented that TTF price risks remain skewed to the upside despite moderation in cold weather. Goldman Sachs also commented that while the latest round of sanctions has mostly focused on oil and the potential impact on LNG supply is very limited, it keeps global gas balances more vulnerable at the margin to tightening shocks and to the risk that TTF might need to price oil-switching in a EUR 65-86/MWh range this summer.
Saudi Energy Minister says Saudi Arabia to enrich, sell and produce yellow cake from Uranium.
Middle East crude benchmarks jump to premiums of around USD 3/bbl above Dubai quotes, highest since Oct 2023, according to Reuters data.
Russia’s Kremlin says hope Russia will be able to counteract the US attempt to undermine Russian companies; says the US sanctions are bound to destabilise global energy markets. Will monitor the new sanctions and seek to minimise them.
Indian Government source is examining the impact of US sanctions on Vostok Project; says the spike in oil prices in a knee-jerk reaction; will not take Russia oil from sanctioned entities and in sanctioned vessels, via Reuters
Six EU nations call for a lower G7 price cap on Russian oil, according to a document cited by Reuters.
ECB’s Vujčić says under current uncertainty, better to move gradually as the ECB is doing; expectations for gradual meeting-by-meeting approach justified; near-term expectations of markets seem justified; developments broadly in line with ECB projections. Exchange rate has not weighed much on ECB policy decisions so far, but must monitor.
UK Chancellor Reeves said the fiscal rules set in the October Budget are non-negotiable and that there undoubtedly have been moves in global financial markets. Reeves said that they will take action to ensure that they meet fiscal rules and she is committed to having one Budget a year which will be in Autumn. Reeves also announced that the UK will earn GBP 600mln from five-year agreements made with China.
UK Chancellor Reeves is set to tell British regulators that they need to embrace risk and “strip back” overly cautious rules that are stifling economic growth, according to The Times.
ECB’s Lane said Europe’s economy is still in recovery from the pandemic and their baseline for Europe is a recovery but noted a modest Europe recovery has a downside alternative, while he expects consumption to improve this year and said there is probably more easing to come. In a separate interview, Lane said we need to make sure that the economy does not grow too slowly, via Der Standard; need to work out the middle path of being neither too aggressive or too cautious in our actions For inflation to be sustainably at target, there would need to be a further decline in services inflation from around 4% currently.
ECB’s Rehn said Europe must not get caught off guard regarding a trade war and the EU should not take a beating in the case of tariffs. Adds, the direction of rates is clear, speed and scale of cuts depends on data, via Bloomberg TV. Inflation is moving in the correct direction, quite confident it is stabilising at 2%
Brussels Airlines said it will need to cancel a significant number of flights at Brussels Airport on Monday due to a strike.
Fitch affirmed Austria at AA+; outlook revised to negative, while it stated the outlook for Austria’s economy remains subdued with a forecast of weak real GDP growth of 0.8% for 2025.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Russian Kremlin says there are no specific preparations underway for a possible US President-Elect Trump and Russian President Putin meeting.
Barclays expects Fed to deliver one 25bps rate cut in June 2025 (vs prev. forecast of one cut in March and one in June).
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
A breakthrough has been reached in Doha, a final draft of the Gaza Ceasefire and hostage release has been sent to Hamas and Israel for approval, according to an official cited by Reuters.
Israeli Finance Minister says the Gaza ceasefire deal is a catastrophe for Israel’s national security. Says will not be a part of surrender deal that will include the release of terrorists and the cessation of war.
Israel has reportedly not received a draft proposal for the Gaza ceasefire deal, according to an Israeli official.
Israeli official says they are “Waiting for Hamas’ answer, the hostage deal outline is clear. Israel has come a long, long way”, according to Reporter Stein.
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu is to send the head of Mossad to Qatar for hostage talks, according to the PM’s office cited by Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with US President Biden on Sunday in which they discussed negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and a hostage deal, while Biden stressed the immediate need for a ceasefire and return of hostages, as well as the need for a surge in humanitarian aid enabled by a stoppage in the fighting.
Israel’s Foreign Minister said Tel Aviv is determined to reach a truce agreement in Gaza, according to Israeli media cited by Asharq News.
Israel’s army said it targeted a number of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon based on intelligence information, according to Sky News Arabia.
Syria’s de facto ruler Al-Sharaa said he discussed with Lebanon’s caretaker PM Mikati the issue of Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks, while Mikati said they will work with Syria to secure the land borders and follow up on land and sea border delineation.
Western and Arab foreign ministers and diplomats began a regional conference with Syrian Foreign Minister Shibani in Riyadh on Sunday.
German Foreign Minister said Germany proposes a smart approach to sanctions so the Syrian population gets relief and a quick dividend from the transition of power, while Germany will provide an additional EUR 50mln to Syria for food, emergency shelters and medical care.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian soldiers captured North Korean military personnel in Russia’s Kursk region, while he later commented that Kyiv is ready to hand over North Korean soldiers if North Korean leader Kim can organise their exchange for Ukrainians captive in Russia. It was separately reported that a South Korean lawmaker said North Korean troop fatalities in Ukraine exceeded 3,000.
Russia took control of the settlements of Shevchenko, Kalynove and Yantarne in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS.
Russian Foreign Ministry said new US sanctions against the energy sector are an effort to harm Russia’s economy at the cost of risking destabilisation of global markets and Russia will respond to Washington’s hostile actions.
US President Biden said on Friday that as long as they keep Western Europe united on Ukraine, there is a real chance Ukrainians can prevail, while he added that Russian President Putin is in tough shape right now and it is important that Putin does not have more breathing room to do what he is doing.
US President-elect Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser Waltz said he expects a call between Trump and Russian President Putin in the coming days and weeks, according to an ABC News interview.
OTHER
White House said US President Biden discussed trilateral maritime security and economic cooperation with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines, while they discussed China’s dangerous, unlawful behaviour in the South China Sea and agreed on the importance of continued coordination in the Indo-Pacific.
Denmark’s government sent private messages to the Trump team expressing a willingness to discuss increased US military and security presence in Greenland, according to Axios.
Japan will test hypersonic missile tracking with space sensors and will deploy sensors which is set for a first launch in fiscal 2025 to resupply the International Space Station, according to Nikkei.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is on the backfoot and holds just shy of the USD 93k mark; Ethereum continues to edge lower and looks to test USD 3.1k to the downside.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly negative in reaction to the hot NFP jobs report and subsequent rise in yields as Fed rate cut bets were unwound, while risk sentiment was also not helped by the holiday closure in Japan and failed to benefit from Chinese trade data.
ASX 200 was lower with underperformance in tech, financials and consumer discretionary sectors, while energy bucked the trend owing to a surge in oil prices.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured at the open as participants awaited the latest Chinese trade data but pared some of the losses following comments from PBoC Governor Pan that they have the confidence and means to overcome difficulties in the economy and will use interest rate and RRR tools to keep liquidity ample, while sentiment then remained subdued amid the broad risk-aversion and failed to benefit from the better-than-expected Chinese trade figures.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC raised the cross-border macro adjustment parameter to 1.75 (prev. raised to 1.50 in July 2023), while it held a meeting for the FX market in Beijing and pledged to strengthen FX market management, as well as discussed to resolutely keep yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels. PBoC also said it will increase forex market resilience, strengthen the forex market, deal with behaviours disrupting market orders and prevent exchange rate overshooting risks. Furthermore, it reiterated the yuan rate will stay at a reasonable and balanced level.
PBoC Governor Pan said China’s economy addressed risks and challenges in recent years, while they have confidence and means to overcome difficulties in the economy and will use the interest rate and RRR tools to keep liquidity ample. Pan reaffirmed China is to raise the fiscal deficit and will continue to be the world economy’s engine. Furthermore, he said policy should shift to investment and consumption but also noted that challenges remain in China’s economic development.
PBoC Governor Pan met with BoE Governor Bailey in Beijing on Saturday and discussed financial stability and cooperation, while Pan also met with top executives from HSBC, Standard Chartered and the London Stock Exchange. It was separately reported that UK and China will explore a wealth connect program and they announced the launch of an OTC bond business with China to launch a sustainable government bond in London this year.
HKMA said China is to encourage listings and debt issuance in Hong Kong, while the HKMA and PBoC will set up a CNY 100bln liquidity facility for trade finance. HKMA also announced to extend trading hours for the Bond Connect Southbound Scheme with the settlement time for the Bond Connect to be extended to 04:30 pm local time (08:30GMT/03:30EST) which includes USD and EUR bonds, while it is to expand onshore investor choices for international bonds through the link.
South Korean impeached President Yoon’s lawyer said Yoon will be absent from the first hearing in the impeachment trial out of safety concerns.
Chinese Auto Industry Association official says China’s vehicles sales estimated to grow 4.7% in 2025 (vs 4.5% growth in 2024 and 12% in 2023), NEV sales seen growing 24.4% in 2025, and vehicle exports estimated to grow 5.8% to 6.2mln units in 2025. China 2024 vehicle sales +4.5% Y/Y (prev. +12% in 2023), according to the industry association; December vehicle sales +10.5% Y/Y (prev. 11.7% in November); 2024 NEV sales +39.7% Y/Y, Dec NEV sales +34% Y/Y.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Dec) 104.84B vs. Exp. 99.8B (Prev. 97.44B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Dec) 10.7% vs. Exp. 7.3% (Prev. 6.7%); Imports YY (USD)(Dec) 1.0% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -3.9%)
Chinese Yuan-Denominated Trade Balance (Dec) 752.90B (Prev. 692.80B)
French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called a snap legislative vote in a surprise move after the far right trounced his centrist alliance in the European elections. After two rounds of voting on June 30 and July 7, neither of the country’s three main political blocs managed to secure an outright majority. A coalition of the French left, the New Popular Front, surprised everyone by taking the lead with 182 seats, Macron’s Ensemble presidential camp won 168 seats while the far right National Rally, who polls had tipped to win, languished in third place with 143 seats.
Following the election, Gabriel Attal, Macron’s Prime Minister resigned. Macron named Michel Barnier as Attal’s technocrat replacement.
In France, the Prime Minister heads up domestic policy while the president heads up foreign policy and appoints Prime Ministers, typically from members of parliament.
Michel Barnier proposed a budget that failed to pass parliament and on December 4, French lawmakers vote to oust Barnier in the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962.
On December 23, French President Emmanuel Macron named François Bayrou as his new technocrat Prime Minister.
How can a new government get a budget ready under the tightest of time pressure?
By picking up where their predecessors left off, even if it got them kicked out of office.
That is at least what French Prime Minister François Bayrou plans on doing — using Michel Barnier’s blueprint as a starting point for his own budget, despite the fact that opposition lawmakers ousted him over proposals to cut spending and increase taxes.
After Barnier and his government fell to a no-confidence vote last month over his plans to reduce France’s “colossal debt” through €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax hikes, the country entered the new year without a proper budget for the first time in its modern history.
“They can tweak [the budget], but they can’t change it in depth … I don’t really see how they’re going to put forward [legislation] less likely to lead to a vote of no confidence,” the left-wing head of the parliament’s finance committee Eric Coquerel told POLITICO.
There are also concerns that the government may not be able to enact Barnier’s planned one-off windfall tax on big companies and wealthy individuals, as it would mean enacting a law in 2025 to tax revenue generated in 2024. The former premier had touted the move as a way to help reduce the budget deficit without placing too big a burden on majority of French taxpayers.
As France enters the new year, there’s little hope that the political and economic uncertainty that’s been plaguing Paris for months will disappear in 2025.
A new minority government is in place but it faces the same challenges as before — how to get political rivals in France’s National Assembly to agree to spending and taxation plans for 2025.
France’s budget deficit is seen standing at 6.1% in 2024 and its debt pile at 112% of gross domestic product.
Credit ratings agency Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating last month, warning that political fragmentation was “more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation”
Expect a Financial Crisis in Europe With France at the Epicenter
Highly indebted EU countries with debt levels over 90% of GDP have to reduce their debt ratio by one percentage point annually, countries
Additionally, the general government deficit — the shortfall between government revenue and spending — must be kept below 3%.
According to the commission’s economic forecast, France is at -5.5%, Italy is at -4.4% and Belgium is at -4.4% and will breach this deficit limit in 2024.
Austria, Finland, Estonia, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia also have deficits that are too high according to the rules. Spain is at exactly -3.0%.
French finance minister Eric Lombard said France’s budget situation was “serious” , adding he targeted a 2025 deficit in a range of 5% to 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Lombard also told France Inter radio that the budget deficit would “probably” be around 6.1% in 2024.
The EU has launched an Excessive Debt Proceeding against France. It won’t stop there.
The Bayrou government is struggling to get agreement on a 5.5 percent deficit when it needs to get to 3.0 percent while shrinking debt from 112 percent of GDP to 60 percent of GDP.
And to get to 5.5 percent, it needs to pass a retroactive tax hike for 2024.
In this setup, I fail to see why any political party would want to win an election.
Much of the EU is struggling to get defense spending up to 2 percent of GDP. 5 percent of GDP has zero chance. Let’s discuss the math.
The entire eurozone is in shambles, and Trump’s demands will accelerate the crisis. One seriously must wonder if that is his real goal.
end
Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;
ROMANIA/EU
So much for free elections
Daily Romania on X: “Former EU Commissioner admits that the EU was responsible for the cancellation of the elections in Romania “We did it in Romania, and we will do it in Germany if necessary.” – Thierry Breton https://t.co/RsiVG8sOy3″ / X
Former EU Commissioner admits that the EU was responsible for the cancellation of the elections in Romania
"We did it in Romania, and we will do it in Germany if necessary."
EU Globalist Explicitly Threatens To Cancel German Election Result If Right Wing AfD Wins
Sunday, Jan 12, 2025 – 07:35 AM
Former French European Commissioner Thierry Breton has essentially openly confessed that the West stole the Romanian election and stands ready to do it again in Germany if deemed necessary.
“We did it in Romania, and we will do it in Germany if necessary,” a translation from the French of Breton’s recent appearance in European media said. Early last month a top Romanian court simplyannulled the first round of the country’s presidential election inorder to create what amounted to a ‘do over’ election.
The publication Romania Journal highlighted Breton’s words as follows: “If, on the other hand, the Tesla and X boss breaks the law, especially in Germany, by supporting the ‘extremist’ AfD party, the former European Commissioner believes that it will be necessary for the authorities to act as in Romania, where the presidential elections were canceled, writes the website of the French television BFMTV, which recalls Călin Georgescu’s TikTok campaign.
Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton says the EU has mechanisms to nullify a potential election victory of the AfD:
The court had decided “to annul the entire electoral process for the election of the President of Romania… to ensure the correctness and legality of the electoral process” – in the controversial ruling which was completely unprecedented.
The ‘problem’ was that Calin Georgescu, the widely dubbed ‘far-right’ contender, came out on top in a first round of voting in a ‘shock’ outcome which left political opponents claiming Russian election interference.
Apparently the ‘smoking gun’ is related to mere social media posts on platforms like TikTok. “The Constitutional Court’s unprecedented decision — which is final — came after President Klaus Iohannis declassified intelligence on Wednesday that alleged Russia ran a sprawling campaign comprising thousands of social media accounts to promote Calin Georgescu across platforms like TikTok and Telegram,” The Associated Press noted.
Now we are equipped, and we have to enforce this law to protect our democracies in Europe.
For now, let’s keep calm and enforce our laws in Europe, when there is a risk that they will be bypassed and if they are not enforced, they can lead to interference.
We did it in Romania, and if necessary, we will have to do it in Germany as well.
Elon Musk responded by saying this is what a tyrant sounds like…
Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton says the EU has mechanisms to nullify a potential election victory of the AfD:
The segment had discussed Musk and European officials’ allegations of his supposed interference in Europe’s internal affairs.
“Freedom of expression is a fundamental element in Europe,” Breton had claimed in the news segment. “If they don’t, there are fines and the possibility of a ban. We are equipped to enforce these laws to protect our democracies in Europe.”
“Let’s stay calm and enforce the laws in Europe, when they risk being circumvented and if not enforced, could lead to interference,” he had added.
END
ROBERT H…………………………………
‘This is how you enter Greece’: Pakistani video tells Muslim migrants how to enter Europe illegally
Trump’s Mideast envoy arrives in Israel, hostage talks progress
An ongoing assessment is underway to determine if this justifies sending the Mossad chief, Shin Bet director, and Maj.-Gen. Nitzan Alon to Doha.
By WALLA!, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 11, 2025 14:26Updated: JANUARY 11, 2025 15:43
American business person Steve Witkoff makes remarks next to US President-elect Donald Trump, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, US January 7, 2025 (illustration).(photo credit: Canva, REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA, Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
A senior Israeli official also stated on Saturday that progress has been made in negotiations over the hostage deal in Qatar.
He noted that an ongoing assessment is underway to determine whether this progress justifies elevating the Israeli delegation by sending the Mossad chief, Shin Bet director, and Maj.-Gen. Nitzan Alon to Doha. According to the official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to decide on the matter later today.
A White House spokesperson told reporters on Friday, “We have made some progress, but Hamas continues to create obstacles at the negotiating table.”
A rally calling for the release of the Israeli hostages held captive by Hamas in Gaza, marking 442 days since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, December 21 2024. (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90)
American and Israeli officials have expressed concerns that if an agreement is not reached before former US President Donald Trump takes office, the negotiations could reach a serious impasse.
Hostage deal
This news comes after a Friday report by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed , which claimed that Hamas sources said that Netanyahu had agreed to end the war following the completion of the first phase of a ceasefire deal.
A source from Hamas told the London-based news outlet that some of the changes were regarding agreements to postpone discussions on some contentious issues until later stages of the negotiations.
This is a developing story.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Netanyahu instructs Mossad, Shin Bet heads to fly to Qatar for hostage talks
The decision to send the delegation is due to progress and new developments in the negotiation talks in Doha, an Israeli official told the Post.
At the conclusion of a situational assessment held by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the issue of hostages, Netanyahu instructed Mossad Chief David Barnea, Shin Bet Chief, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon and Diplomatic Adviser Ophir Falk to travel to Doha to continue advancing a hostage deal.
The decision to send the delegation is due to progress and new developments in the negotiation talks in Doha, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post.
Defense Minister Israel Katz, senior security officials, and negotiators representing both the outgoing and incoming US administrations attended the meeting.
Netanyahu made the decision shortly after meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.
An Israeli official had noted earlier that an assessment was underway to determine whether hostage deal progress justified elevating the Israeli delegation by sending the Mossad chief, Shin Bet director, and Maj.-Gen. Nitzan Alon to Doha.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum stated that they welcomed the decision to send Barnea, Alon, and Falk to Qatar.
Hostage families demonstrate in Tel Aviv for a hostage deal, January 11, 2025. (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/MAARIV)
“We call on the delegation: This is a historic opportunity to secure the release of all our loved ones.”
How will the stages of the deal be implemented?
The first stage of the deal talks about a partial withdrawal from the corridor and a reduction in Israeli forces in the area. The second stage will see the IDF still remaining at a number of inspection posts along the corridor, and on the last day of the deal’s third stage, there will be a complete withdrawal of the IDF from the corridor, according to the report.
On the table of the negotiations is Israel completely withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on the last day of implementing the stages of the deal, KAN reported, citing Arabic media.
END
final draft presented to Hamas: it is now up to them!
Final draft of hostage deal presented to Hamas after ‘breakthrough,’ official says
“It seems to be going in a positive direction, but [we] must be careful. We know this from past experiences,” a source told The Jerusalem Post.
A three-stage deal to release the hostages held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza has been reached, and parties are awaiting Hamas’s response, a source told The Jerusalem Post on Monday morning.
This deal was reached after a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by envoys of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The official said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel’s Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar’s prime minister.
The official said Steve Witkoff, who will become US envoy when Trump returns to the US presidency next week, attended the talks. A US source said the outgoing Biden administration’s envoy, Brett McGurk, was also there.
“The next 24 hours will be pivotal to reaching the deal,” the official said, characterizing the draft as the outcome of a breakthrough reached in the early hours of Monday.
A rally calling for the release of the hostages held captive by Hamas in Gaza, at the Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, December 14, 2024 (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90)
“The hostage deal outline is clear, and Israel has come a long, long way,” an Israeli official told the Post.
“We are moving forward slowly and carefully. We hope that Hamas will stop with its refusals,” the official added.
Though other deals have failed due to the lack of cooperation from Hamas and their negotiators, sources close to the negotiations have expressed optimism that the Gaza-based terror group will accept Israel’s proposals.
“It seems to be going in a positive direction, but [we] must be careful. We know this from past experiences,” the source told the Post Monday morning.
However, Israel has reportedly not received a draft proposal for a deal to halt the fighting in Gaza and return its hostages, an Israeli official told Reuters Monday.
Earlier, an official briefed on the negotiations said Qatar had handed Israel and Hamas a “final” draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement designed to end the war in Gaza.
Moving forward on a deal?
Hamas sources told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to end the war following the completion of the first phase of a ceasefire deal.
Al-Araby reported that there has been a “clear shift” in Netanyahu’s position regarding “the process of completing the war after the first stage [of a ceasefire deal].”
The article comes after KAN News reported that Qatar sent Israel “a positive message” regarding Hamas’s intentions to move forward in negotiations on a hostage and ceasefire deal.
A source from Hamas told the London-based news outlet that some of the changes were regarding agreements to postpone discussions on some contentious issues until later stages of the negotiations.
Jerusalem Post Staff, Reuters contributed to this report.
end
Israel to ‘Post’: Hamas has not yet sent its final answer
Soldiers killed in the northern Gaza Strip on January 13, 2025: (L-R) Staff Sgt. Yahav Hadar, Staff Sgt. Yoav Feffer, Staff Sgt. Guy Karmiel, Staff Sgt. Aviel Wiseman, and Cpt. Yair Yakov Shushan. (Courtesy)
Five IDF soldiers were killed and 10 others were wounded in the northern Gaza Strip this morning, the military announces.
The slain troops are named as:
Cpt. Yair Yakov Shushan, 23, from Ma’alot-Tarshiha
Staff Sgt. Yahav Hadar, 20, from Kfar Tavor
Staff Sgt. Guy Karmiel, 20, from Gedera
Staff Sgt. Yoav Feffer, 19, from Herzliya
Staff Sgt. Aviel Wiseman, 20, from Poria
They all served with the Nahal Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit.
Another 10 soldiers were wounded in the incident, eight of whom are listed in serious condition.
The IDF does not immediately release the circumstances of the deadly incident.
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Syrian intelligence says it foiled Islamic State attempt to target Damascus shrine
The foiled attack will stoke fears that Islamic State is hoping to stage a comeback in Syria following the fall last month of President Bashar al-Assad.
By REUTERSJANUARY 11, 2025 12:47Updated: JANUARY 11, 2025 14:34
A 16-year-old from east Jerusalem attempted to recruit members to ISIS.(photo credit: ISRAEL POLICE)
Syria’s Intelligence Directorate foiled an attack by the Islamic State group on the Sayeda Zeinab shrine in a Damascus suburb, a site of mass pilgrimage for Shi’ites, state news agency Sana reported on Saturday.
It said members of the cell were arrested before they could detonate an explosion inside the shrine.
The foiled attack will stoke fears that Islamic State is hoping to stage a comeback in Syria following the fall last month of President Bashar al-Assad.
Some Syrians and foreign powers have worried that the country’s new leaders, who are from the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that forced Assad out on Dec. 8, may impose strict Islamic governance on a country with numerous minority groups such as Druze, Kurds, Christians and Shi’ites.
But the announcement by Syria’s de facto government that it thwarted an attack targeting Shi’ite Muslims comes amid reassurances it will protect religious minorities.
Khaled Brigade, a part of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), hold a military parade, after Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in Damascus, Syria, December 27, 2024. (credit: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
“The General Intelligence Directorate is utilizing all its resources to confront all attempts to target the Syrian people in all their diversity,” an intelligence official told Sana.
Islamic State, the Sunni Muslim terrorist group, has claimed previous attacks in and around the shrine, including last year and a bombing in 2017 that killed at least 40 people.
The granddaughter of the Prophet Mohammad, Sayeda Zeinab is venerated by Shi’ite Muslims and the mosque and shrine 10 kilometers south of Damascus attracts Shi’ite pilgrims from around the region.
Defense of the shrine had been a rallying call during Syria’s 13-year civil war that drew Shi’ite militiamen from around the region to back former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
But Assad’s ouster last month significantly diminished the position of Shi’ite forces in Syria, including Iran and the Tehran-allied Lebanese group Hezbollah.
end
ISRAEL/LEBANON
Hochstein guarantees full IDF withdrawal before end of ceasefire – report
He reportedly explained that he had secured “a detailed timeline for the withdrawal” following direct discussions with Israeli officials.
US envoy Amos Hochstein reportedly said there had been some Israeli violations of the ceasefire with Lebanon.(photo credit: INGIMAGE/REUTERS/REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR )
US special envoy Amos Hochstein has reassured senior Lebanese officials that Washington is determined to oversee the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon by the end of the 60-day ceasefire period, Al-Akhbar reported on Saturday.
According to the Lebanese newspaper, Hochstein conveyed this assurance during meetings with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. He reportedly explained that he had secured “a detailed timeline for the withdrawal” following direct discussions with Israeli officials and emphasized that “January 26 will be the final date for Israeli forces in Lebanon.”
The report also noted that Hochstein requested the Lebanese Armed Forces to strengthen their deployment in the region and enhance readiness to “fill the void” left by the Israeli exit.
He highlighted the importance of transferring Hezbollah’s weapons south of the Litani River to the Lebanese army. Military sources reportedly informed Hochstein that an existing arrangement with Hezbollah would ensure a smooth transition. “The steps will unfold naturally,” they said, adding that the army would eventually declare the region south of the Litani free of unauthorized military presence.
After a political deadlock lasting 18 months, Lebanon’s parliament elected Joseph Aoun, the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as president. Aoun received 99 out of 128 parliamentary votes.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun stand after Aoun is elected as the country’s President at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, January 9, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
Israel’s response
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar issued a congratulatory statement, saying: “I congratulate Lebanon on the election of its new president following a prolonged political crisis. I hope this choice strengthens stability, improves Lebanon’s future, and fosters good neighborly relations.”
In a related development, Reuters reported two days earlier that the Biden administration had decided to redirect $95 million in military aid initially earmarked for Egypt to Lebanon. According to the report, the funds were allocated to bolster the Lebanese army’s capacity in its efforts to limit Hezbollah’s influence.
END
END
ISRAEL LEBANON
Lebanese army deploys to south-west Lebanon as IDF withdraws – report
The Lebanese army is quickly deploying in the western part of southern Lebanon, Army Radio reported Saturday afternoon, citing Lebanese reports.
הפריסה של צבא לבנון בגזרה המערבית בדרום לבנון מתקדמת יחסית במהירות בימים האחרונים, והיום מדווחים בלבנון שהצבא הלבנוני התפרס גם בראמיה ובמוקדים הסמוכים לעייתא א-שעב.
בינתיים, נכון להיום ועפ״י הדיווחים העדכניים שיש בידינו, צבא לבנון כבר פרוס במוקדים הבאים בגזרה המערבית ובגזרה… pic.twitter.com/eU2m03vlwA
Lebanon’s army has reportedly deployed to Ramyeh and locations close to Ayta ash-Shab. They are also stationed near Naqoura, Alma ash-Shab, Tyre Harfa, and Aitaroun.
The IDF remains deployed in areas around A-Dhayra, Marwahin, Ayta ash-Shab, and Maroun el-Ras. However, the IDF has reportedly withdrawn from Ramyeh, which is approximately two kilometers from the Israeli communities of Shtula and Zar’it.
end
ISRAEL/LEBANON/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TIMES OF ISRAEL
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF drone locates terrorist before IDF eliminates him in Jabalya
Using drone reconnaissance, the troops spotted three terrorists who approached and took cover in a nearby structure.
IDF soldiers locate a terrorist using a tunnel shaft to attempt and ambush before eliminating him in the Gaza Strip, January 11, 2024. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Givati Brigade soldiers located and killed three terrorists in the Jabalya area during an operation aimed at thwarting an imminent attack, according to the IDF on Saturday.
As part of the operation, soldiers identified several terrorists moving in the vicinity.
Using drone reconnaissance, the troops spotted three terrorists who approached and took cover in a nearby structure. The terrorists attempted to ambush the soldiers through a shaft inside the building.
In the footage released by the IDF, one of the terrorists, armed with a weapon, is visible inside the structure. The troops opened fire, killing two of the terrorists who were hiding. The third terrorist was killed in a subsequent targeted operation conducted by Givati Brigade soldiers.
Also, on Saturday morning, rocket sirens sounded near Gaza border communities on two separate occasions. The first incident was later identified as a false alarm, while the second was the result of a single rocket launched from the Gaza Strip. The IAF successfully intercepted the projectile.
The Israeli air force struck Hamas terrorists operating within a command and control complex that was previously the Halawa School in Jabaliya, the IDF announced Saturday afternoon.
Military Intelligence, the Shin Bet, and the Southern Command guided the strike.
The terrorists used the command and control complex for planning and executing terror operations.
The IDF said it will continue to act with “strength and determination” against terrorist organizations.
In recent weeks, soldiers from the Givati Brigade Combat Team, operating under the 162nd Division, eliminated Saad Saeed Zakhi Dahnon in close-quarters combat.
Dahnon served as a company commander and deputy head of the northern Gaza rocket array for the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization. He infiltrated Israeli territory and participated in the brutal massacre on October 7. Dahnon also orchestrated and led multiple ambushes targeting our forces in the Beit Lahiya area.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF announces 4 soldiers killed, 6 wounded during fighting in northern Gaza
Troops fall in military’s renewed offensive in Beit Hanoun; initial IDF probe indicates gunmen set off explosive device and fired at soldiers
Soldiers killed in northern Gaza’s Beit Hanoun on January 11, 2025: (L-R) Sgt. Yahav Maayan, Sgt. Maj. (res.) Alexander Fedorenko, Staff Sgt. Danila Diakov, Sgt. Eliav Astuker. (Courtesy)
Four soldiers were killed and six were wounded during fighting in the northern Gaza Strip on Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces announced, bringing Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas to 402.
The slain troops were named Sgt. Maj. (res.) Alexander Fedorenko, 37, from Bat Yam; Staff Sgt. Danila Diakov, 21, from Maale Adumim; Sgt. Yahav Maayan, 19, from Modiin; and Sgt. Eliav Astuker, 19, from Ashdod.
Among the six wounded troops, two were listed in serious condition.
According to an initial IDF probe, the soldiers in northern Gaza’s Beit Hanoun were hit by an explosive device set off by gunmen, who also opened fire at them.
The IDF has recently intensified its offensive against Hamas in the far north of the Gaza Strip, an operation that has been ongoing since last October. The offensive is now focusing on the Beit Hanoun area after raids in Jabalia and Beit Lahiya.
The ongoing operation has led to the deaths of 48 soldiers.
IDF forces operating in the Gaza Strip in a handout photo issued by the Israeli military on January 9, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
On Wednesday three soldiers were killed in northern Gaza. According to an initial IDF probe, the troops were hit by a large explosive device that was detonated against a tank during operations in Beit Hanoun. That incident came after three other troops were killed and several more wounded in separate incidents on the previous two days.
Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip now stands at 402.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu eulogized the soldiers on X, writing: “They fell protecting the homeland in battles in the northern Gaza Strip, in a war for our existence and security. Their heroism and bravery will be etched in our hearts forever.”
יחד עם כל אזרחי ישראל, אני כואב את נפילתם של ארבעת לוחמי צה”ל – סמ”ר דנילה דיאקוב, רס”ם (במיל’) אלכסנדר פדורנקו, סמל יהב מעיין וסמל אליאב אסטיוקאר ז”ל.
הם נפלו על הגנת המולדת בקרבות בצפון רצועת עזה, במלחמה על קיומנו וביטחוננו. גבורתם ואומץ לבם יחרטו בליבנו לעד.
— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) January 11, 2025
Hamas terrorists killed in school
In Jabalia on Saturday, the IDF said it carried out a drone strike against a group of Hamas operatives using the Halawa School to plan and carry out attacks against troops in Gaza and against Israel.
Palestinian media said the complex was serving as a shelter for displaced Gazans, and the strike killed at least eight people, including two children, and wounded over 30 others.
The IDF said it took numerous steps to mitigate civilian harm in the strike, using a precision munition, aerial surveillance, and other intelligence.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 46,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle as of November and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools and mosques.
Israel and Hamas have been at war for nearly 15 months since the Palestinian terror group invaded southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and abducting 251 as hostages to Gaza.
Recent days have seen negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal ramp up, and on Saturday Netanyahu said he was sending top negotiators to Qatar to try to reach a breakthrough.
END
Israel will not release Nukhba terrorists in possible Gaza hostage deal – diplomatic source
Some terrorists with life sentences expected to be released in deal • None of 33 hostages set for release confirmed as dead
Israel will not release any Hamas terrorist belonging to the Nukhba forces, which took part in the October 7 massacre of southern Israel, as part of a possible hostage deal, diplomatic sources told The Jerusalem Post on Monday evening.
The list of terrorists expected to be released from Israeli prisons as part of the deal’s first phase does include some sentenced to life, the source added. However, none are part of the Nukhba forces that carried out the October 7 attacks.
In addition, none of the 33 hostages expected to be released in the first phase of a possible deal are confirmed to be dead as of Monday, as per the diplomatic source.
Israel is expected to retain “territorial assets,” which could include the Philadelphi Corridor and an undefined security perimeter, as reported bythe Post‘s Yonah Jeremy Bob.
Key terms of possible hostage and ceasefire deal, January 13, 2025 (illustration). (credit: Canva, FLASH90, POOL, SHUTTERSTOCK)
Israeli delegation to remain in Doha, potentially until deal is complete
Israel’s senior delegation in Doha, which includes Shin Bet head Ronen Bar and Mossad Director David Barnea, will remain in Qatar “for the time being,” potentially until a deal is signed, the source added.
This is a developing story.
END
Biden Pressing Gaza Deal Hard Before Trump Inauguration, Reports Of ‘Breakthrough’
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 03:05 PM
There is once again talk of a “breakthrough” in efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, Reuters and other publications are reporting Monday. President Biden is also touting this in his last foreign policy speech:
A Gaza deal is “on the brink”, President Joe Biden has said in his final foreign policy address. The outgoing US president said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians.
“In the war between Israel and Hamas, we’re on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago finally coming to fruition,” Biden said while visiting the State Department for the final time as president.
What’s new about this current round of negotiations is that Trump’s envoy for the conflict, Steve Witkoff, is present, along with the Biden administration’s outgoing envoy Brett McGurk. A draft deal has reportedly been presented to all sides, and mediators are awaiting Hamas’ response. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal to reaching the deal,” an official told Reuters. And separately, the Israeli side has said: “The hostage deal outline is clear, and Israel has come a long, long way.”
“We are moving forward slowly and carefully. We hope that Hamas will stop with its refusals,” the official added. According to further details:
Mediators gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday to end the war in Gaza, an official briefed on the negotiations said, after a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by envoys of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The official said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel’s Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar’s prime minister.
The proposed three-stage deal comes as the Biden administration desperately hopes to mediate peace with merely a week to go before Trump is inaugurated on Jan.20. What has stalled things in the past is Hamas’ demand that Israel’s military leave the Gaza Strip, something which PM Netanyahu has considered a non-starter.
For much of the last year Secretary of State Antony Blinken has claimed to be at the ‘goal line’ of achieving a deal, but talks have consistently collapsed despite these overly optimistic assessments.
Still, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is now claiming that greater progress has been made due to the coordination between Biden’s and Trump’s teams.
“There is progress, it looks much better than previously. I want to thank our American friends for the huge efforts they are investing to secure a hostage deal,” Saar told a press briefing. Biden’s White House officials have said a deal is being pressed hard ahead of Trump taking office:
The Biden administration sees a possible Gaza agreement as soon as this week, White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told Bloomberg News earlier today. Despite expressing optimism, he stressed there were no guarantees that Israel and Hamas would agree to such a deal that could pause the 15-month-old war on the devastated territory. The US is pressing for a deal before Donald Trump takes office on 20 January.
Is there legitimate progress this time due to the Trump factor?
Starting early last month the president-elect betwen threatening escalation if Hamas and Palestinian militants in Gaza don’t immediately free the remaining Israeli hostages. “Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!” Trump had stated on his Truth Social.
He warmed that there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t release the captives. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” Trump continued in the statement.
In Lebanon the 60-day agreed upon ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has largely held. This may provide momentum for regional diplomats to finally secure a path forward in Gaza. There’s officially some 100 Israeli captives still unaccounted for; however, Israeli and US intelligence believe many are deceased.
WEST BANK/PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
Hamas condemns Palestinian Authority for shooting at West Bank terrorists
Hamas condemned the Palestinian Authority for attempting to “assassinate” members of the terror group, Hamas posted on Telegram Saturday.
Hamas leader Abdul Rahman Shadid claimed, “What happened in Tulkarm Governorate, where the Authority’s security forces directly shot at a resistance vehicle in an attempt to kill them for the second time in a few days, confirms that instructions were issued by officials in the Authority to liquidate and kill resistance fighters in the West Bank.”
END
ISRAEL/ICC/ HAGUE/USA
House Passes Bill To Protect Israeli PM Netanyahu From ICC Prosecution
One of the first acts of the Republican-led 119th Congress was to pass a bill that would sanction officials attempting to arrest or investigate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli leader is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes committed in Gaza.
The “Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act” passed on Thursday in a 243 to 140 vote, with 45 Democrats joining the majority of Republicans. Rep. Thomas Massie was the only member of the GOP caucus not to vote in favor of the bill.
“The US House did only one thing today. We passed a bill to protect Israeli PM Netanyahu from the International Criminal Court. I voted present,” Massie explained on X. “The ICC has no authority over the United States, but we should not get involved in disputes between other countries. Focus on [the US]!”
The legislation was co-sponsored by Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Florida Republican Brian Mast, who is a veteran of the Israeli Defense Forces. The two lawmakers prioritized the bill as a show of support for Tel Aviv, and AIPAC has called on lawmakers to vote in favor of the measure.
If signed into law, the bill would impose sanctions on the ICC over “any effort to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute any protected person of the United States and its allies.” The sanctions include prohibiting US property transactions and blocking and revoking visas.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SC) said he plans to bring the bill to a floor vote in the upper chamber. A number of Senate Democrats have also voiced support for the legislation, though Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said some in her party were “looking at whether there’s an opportunity to offer an alternative” to the bill.
The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant after ample evidence emerged that the IDF was conducting a war of extermination against the Palestinians in Gaza.
The Israeli onslaught in Gaza has been aided by Washington, with the Joe Biden administration providing Israel with $22 billion in military aid during the first year of the genocide. Last week, Biden approved a final arms sale to Tel Aviv that includes many of the missiles, bombs, and artillery shells that have been used to devastate Gaza.
Still, many Republicans in Washington have criticized Biden for not giving Israel enough support.
END
/
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ROBERT H
Russia’s Geoeconomic Shift from Greater Europe to Greater Eurasia
Worth reading!
Russia has turned East and will not turn West again anytime soon.
Yes, one way or another the Ukrainian conflict will end. But that will not save Europe from a massive contraction in GDP. Try 20-30% reductions. With this will come deflation unlike seen since WWII. This will continue to usher in RIGHT wing thinking and voter approval. The Euro will continue to lose value as realities take hold.
“A strategic partnership with China is indispensable to construct a Greater Eurasia. Yet, Russia has learned the lessons from the failure of Greater Europe by avoiding excessive dependence on an economically stronger China. The asymmetrical interdependence that emerges in the framework of such a partnership enables China to extract political concessions, which would make it untenable for Russia in the long term. Moscow seeks a balance of dependence in its strategic partnership with Beijing, which entails diversifying economic partnerships across Greater Eurasia. As China does not seek a hegemonic role in Greater Eurasia, it has welcomed Russia’s efforts to diversify its economic partnerships.
Under the Greater Europe Initiative, the Europeans had access to cheap Russian energy and enjoyed a huge Russian market for exports of manufactured goods. Furthermore, Russia’s geoeconomic strategy to integrate with the West resulted in preferential treatment for Western corporations. Under Greater Eurasia, Europe will undergo deindustrialization as the cheap Russian energy and market opportunities go to Asia, which also enhances the competitiveness of Asia vis-a-vis Europe. The Europeans continue setting their own house on fire with reckless sanctions, in the hope that it will also hurt the Russian economy. However, while Europe cannot diversify away from Russia, Russia can diversify away from Europe.”
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) ordered two respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine manufacturers to include a potentially paralytic side effect warning related to nerve damage on product labels.
The manufacturers, GSK and Pfizer, manufacturing Arexvy and Abrysvo vaccines respectively, must now include a warning stating a risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) following vaccination, according to a Jan. 7 statement from the agency.
GBS is a rare disorder in which the immune system ends up damaging nerve cells, which leads to weakness in the muscles and potential near-total paralysis, depending on severity.
RSV is a common respiratory virus that infects the throat, nose, and lungs, and typically spreads during fall and winter seasons. Infected people can experience symptoms similar to that of a common cold such as a runny nose, congestion, sneezing, and coughing.
The FDA said the following statement is to be included in the Warnings and Precautions section of the two vaccines: “The results of a postmarketing observational study suggest an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during the 42 days following vaccination with Abrysvo” or with “Arexvy” for that vaccine.
Arexvy is used by people aged 50 and older to deal with lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV, while Abrysvo has been approved for use in adults aged 18 and above.
Abrysvo is also used by pregnant women who are at 32 through 36 weeks of gestational age to protect infants from birth through six months of age.
The labeling requirement follows an observational study conducted by the FDA.
In the study, the agency found there was an “increased risk of GBS during the 42 days following vaccination, with an estimated 9 excess cases of GBS per million doses of Abrysvo, and an estimated 7 excess cases of GBS per million doses of Arexvy administered to individuals 65 years of age and older.”
However, despite these results, the FDA determined that “the benefits of vaccination with Abrysvo and Arexvy continue to outweigh their risks.”
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), early symptoms of GBS can include feelings of weakness and tingling.
“People with GBS usually first feel these symptoms in both legs. Then, they might feel these symptoms in their arms and upper body,” it said. “Symptoms can progress over hours, days, or weeks.” The weakness keeps increasing until people are unable to use certain muscles.
“People with GBS need to be hospitalized,” the agency said. “Most people start to recover 2–3 weeks after symptoms start. Recovery may take as little as a few weeks or as long as a few years. Most people recover fully, but some have permanent nerve damage. Some people have died from GBS.”
The Epoch Times reached out to GSK and Pfizer for comment.
RSV Vaccine Usage and Risks
The RSV vaccine label update comes as the overall respiratory illness activity in the United States is deemed to be at a “high” level, with RSV activity being “very high in many areas of the country, particularly in young children,” according to the CDC.
“Emergency department visits and hospitalizations are highest in children and hospitalizations are elevated among older adults in some areas.”
The agency recommends all babies be protected from RSV by either vaccinating mothers or by giving an antibody to the infant.
Even if the mother is not at high risk for severe RSV, the vaccination is important since the pregnant woman will “pass the protection” to her baby, the CDC said. “It takes two weeks to develop protection (antibodies) and for protection to pass on to your baby.”
This protection lasts for the first six months of the infant’s life “while they are at highest risk of severe RSV.”
Pregnant women who have already taken an RSV vaccine during a previous pregnancy are not recommended to take it again. Instead, the baby should get nirsevimab, an antibody.
CDC recommends antibodies to “all babies younger than eight months of age born to mothers who did not receive a maternal RSV vaccine (Pfizer’s Abrysvo) during pregnancy.”
For older adults, the CDC advises vaccination for 60 to 74-year-olds who are at increased risk of severe RSV and for all individuals aged 75 and above.
However, the agency warns that vaccination could result in certain adverse events. “Side effects such as pain, redness, and swelling where the shot is given, fatigue, fever, headache, nausea, diarrhea, and muscle or joint pain may occur after you get an RSV vaccine.”
“These side effects are usually mild. Patients who have experienced these symptoms when getting other vaccines might be more likely to experience them after getting an RSV vaccine,” it said.
END
RUSSIA/IRAN
Not good@!!
Russia, Iran To Sign ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Treaty This Week
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 12:30 PM
Russia and Iran have unveiled plans to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty on Friday when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow.
The two nations dubbed ‘pariahs’ by much of the West have seen their cooperation and relations grow in the context of the Ukraine war. “On January 17, Vladimir Putin will hold talks with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian, who will come to Russia on an official visit,” the Kremlin announced Monday.
The much anticipated treaty has long been in the works, since at least last summer, news of which caused President Zelensky to say there’s an axis of rogue states conspiring to defeat Ukraine. This has included North Korea as well, which has lost troops helping Moscow defend Kursk region.
As for the treaty to be signed by the week’s close, it was previewed as heavily focused on defense and security cooperation. “It will confirm the parties’ desire for closer cooperation in the field of defense and interaction in the interests of peace and security at the regional and global levels,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had earlier stated.
Putin and Pezeshkian in addition to signing the agreement are expected to discuss “prospects for the further expansion of bilateral cooperation, including in trade and investment, transport and logistics and the humanitarian sphere, as well as topical issues on the regional and international agenda,” the Kremlin said.
Already, the two sides cooperate deeply on drones. Russia has since the Ukraine war’s start been using Iran-produced ‘Shahed’ kamikaze drones against Ukrainian cities, and Iran has reportedly set up a major UAV production facility on Russian soil at Moscow’s invitation.
Moscow and Tehran early last month lost a key Middle East ally upon the fall of Bashar al Assad, after Islamic insurgents rampaged across the country and the demoralized and underpaid Syrian Army quickly collapsed. Turkey was widely seen as supporting the insurgents with intelligence and equipment, and likely other NATO states played a background role as well.
As for Iran, it sees the treaty as further safeguarding independence and national sovereignty:
Discussing the specifics of the deal, Jalali told Iran’s state-run Young Journalists Club (YJC), “The independence and security of our country, as well as self-reliance, are crucial elements, and we are not particularly inclined to align ourselves with any specific bloc.”
“National independence is of great importance to the Islamic Republic of Iran. After all, we have been paying the price for it for 45 years,” he added in an article published Saturday.
But both countries have come under far-reaching US and EU sanctions for what’s happening in Ukraine. Western intelligence has warned against the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia in the context of the Ukraine war as well. While there have been some reports suggesting this has happened, there’s as yet no definitive evidence.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//
Moderna Shares Crash On Sluggish COVID Demand, Cuts 2025 Revenue Forecast
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 08:10 AM
Shares of Moderna crashed in premarket trading after the company issued business and pipeline updates revealing sluggish demand for its Covid-19 and RSV vaccines. The weak sales environment forced the company to slash its 2025 full-year forecast, falling short of Wall Street’s average estimates.
Moderna released business updates and progress across its pipeline of mRNA medicines, plus outlooks on sales ahead of its presentation at the 43rd Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference at 3:45 PM.
The first disappointing update from the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company was a downgraded sales forecast for 2025, which fell short of the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg:
Sees revenue $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, saw $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, estimate $2.92 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
“In 2024, we achieved $3.0 – 3.1 billion in product sales, approval of our RSV vaccine and continued to adapt our COVID-19 business for the endemic setting,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel wrote in a press release.
Bancel continued, “At the same time, we reduced our cash operating cost by over 25 percent compared to 2023 and aim to reduce 2025 cash costs by $1 billion with a plan for an additional $500 million cost savings in 2026. We remain focused on our three strategic priorities: driving sales growth, delivering up to 10 product approvals over the next three years, and reducing costs across our business.”
In September, the company revealed new plans to slash $1.1 billion in expenses by 2027 to steer toward profitability as the vaccine slump was gathering pace.
Investors were spooked by Moderna’s news. Shares in New York crashed as much as 20% in premarket trading. Shares have roundtripped the pandemic, trading around the $34 handle.
Meanwhile, Moderna is bracing for vast uncertainties as President-elect Donald Trump is just one week away from stepping into the White House. What keeps the CEO up at night is the top health nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine critic.
CA: Tennis pro Gabriela Dabrowski has breast cancer; MP Luc Berthold has prostate cancer; NE: singer Emma Heesters’ cervical cancer has spread; FR: footballer Hassane Kolingar has cardiac arrest; more
Inside Edition’s Alison Hall Says Reporting Olivia Munn’s Breast Cancer Led to Her Own Diagnosis: ‘Truly Miraculous’
January 10, 2025
Last year, Olivia Munn revealed she was diagnosed with breast cancer early after using the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment tool
Inside Edition reporter Alison Hall said covering Munn’s journey inspired her to be proactive about her health and ultimately led to her own breast cancer diagnosis
She’s now preparing to undergo a double mastectomy and wants to raise awareness in the same way Munn did
Alison Hall didn’t know anything about the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment tool, even after watching her mother’s battle with the disease. It wasn’t even until the Inside Edition reporter, 33, covered actress Olivia Munn’s breast cancer journey that she first heard the term.
In March 2024, Munn revealed that she was diagnosed with breast cancer and underwent a double mastectomy after her doctor calculated her Breast Cancer Risk Assessment score, which she said “saved my life” by allowing her to catch the disease early.
The Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), also known as The Gail Model, is a tool used by healthcare professionals to estimate a woman’s risk of developing invasive breast cancer within the next five years and within her lifetime (up to age 90), according to the National Cancer Institute.
The assessment, which takes as little as five minutes to complete, uses a woman’s personal information to determine the risk, including age, age at first period, age at the time of the birth of a first child, family history of breast cancer (mothers, sisters, daughters), number of past breast biopsies (whether positive or negative), number of breast biopsies showing a presence of atypical hyperplasia, and race/ethnicity. [This “assessment” fails to take note of certain other “personal information.”]
Wayne Dawson ‘overwhelmed’ by support during cancer journey
January 10, 2025
CLEVELAND (WJW) – Legendary FOX 8 journalist and pastor Wayne Dawson isn’t shy about boasting his belief in the power of prayer.
He says that is making all the difference as he fights cancer.
“It means so much to know you have a community of people who love you, and I just want to let everyone know, I love you so much for what you have done. You can’t walk this walk, you can’t fight this fight, you can’t take this journey without support,” Wayne said Friday.
Wayne announced last year that he’d received a surprising oral cancer diagnosis.
He’s been undergoing chemotherapy and radiation and recently had an additional procedure.
Popular CT Radio Host Diagnosed With Cancer, Expects Full Recovery
January 10, 2025
CONNECTICUT — One of Connecticut’s most popular media personalities shocked his audience this week by revealing he is battling cancer.
AJ from WPLR’s Chaz & AJ morning radio show told listeners on Monday that he has been diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a blood cancer, after showing signs of anemia and undergoing spinal taps.
“But they caught it early,” AJ explained. He has already begun management for the disease, and starts “more aggressive” treatments this week. “There’s a really good feeling they can bring me back, either exactly as I was or very close to how it was before.”
Texans’ Cade Stover Undergoes Emergency Appendectomy, Expected to Make Full Recovery
December 15, 2024
The Houston Texans will be without tight end Cade Stover [24] for Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins after he underwent an emergency appendectomy Saturday night. Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press noted Sunday that, while Stover will miss time in the immediate future, the team expects him to make a full recovery.
Frontman for country music band reveals cancer diagnosis, tumor removal
January 9, 2025
NASHVILLE – Country music singer Raul Malo, the longtime frontman for The Mavericks, revealed Tuesday he had a cancerous tumor removed from his liver recently.
The procedure has forced the band to withdraw from a musical cruise that was scheduled to sail Sunday, Jan. 12, from Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Tennis pro Gabriela Dabrowski reveals she played Wimbledon and Olympics amid breast cancer treatment
December 31, 2024
Paris Olympic bronze medalist and three-time Grand Slam champion Gabriela Dabrowski shared in an Instagram post that she was diagnosed with breast cancer in April and competed throughout the season while receiving treatment. “I know this will come as a shock to many, but I am okay and I will be okay,” she wrote Tuesday. “Early detection saves lives. I can wholeheartedly agree with this.” Dabrowski, 32, said she briefly took a break from tennis after undergoing two surgeries, but returned to the court in June, where she and her partner Erin Routliffe won the women’s doubles at the Rothesay Open Nottingham. Dabrowski said her health battle began in the spring of 2023 when she felt a lump in her left breast during a self-exam, but a doctor told her it was nothing to worry about. Dabrowski said she got a mammogram, ultrasound and biopsy before she was diagnosed with cancer.
Conservative MP Luc Berthold says he has prostate cancer but not stepping down
January 5, 2025
Montreal – Conservative MP Luc Berthold [59] has announced he has prostate cancer. The longtime member of Parliament for Quebec’s Mégantic—L’Érable federal riding shared the news on social media today. Berthold said in a Facebook post that the cancer is treatable but will require an operation that he expects to receive in the coming weeks. Berthold said he has no intention of stepping down and will remain his party’s candidate in the next federal election for the newly-created riding of Mégantic-l’Érable-Lotbinière. Berthold was first elected under the federal Conservative banner in 2015 and won reelection in both 2019 and 2021.
France international suffers cardiac arrest at wedding and placed into coma
January 4, 2025
France international Hassane Kolingar has revealed he suffered a cardiac arrest after taking snus [snuff] over the summer. The Racing 92 loosehead returned to action last week, featuring in the Top 14 clash against Lyon. But he has admitted he feared he would never play again after the medical episode, which happened at the wedding of his team-mate Ibrahim Diallo. Kolingar also revealed that he had to be shocked four times, while he has since undergone a five-hour surgery to clean a scar on his heart that has been present since childhood. “When I got there [to the wedding], I stuck a snus against my gum and sat down while waiting for the bride and groom,” Kolingar told Midi Olympique. “It’s not illegal – there’s tobacco in it but it’s real s—, I think. At one point, I burst out laughing and immediately felt pressure in my chest. My heart was beating really hard and I was sweating a lot; seeing stars. “I thought I was just having a hypoglycaemic episode and, so I would not ruin the ceremony, I moved aside. My eardrums were banging, I felt like someone was sticking needles in my head. I was in pain, really bad pain and my eyes were rolling back. I was going into cardiac arrest.” Snus is an oral tobacco product made up of ground tobacco and sometimes flavouring. The moist tobacco pouches look similar to a small tea bag and are usually placed between the upper lip and the gums. From there, it releases nicotine into the bloodstream. “It was a tachycardia incident, basically,” added Kolingar. “Because my pulse wouldn’t go down, the firefighters put me into a coma. To wake me up, they shocked me four times.” The 26-year-old was initially taken to hospital in Auxerre, before being transferred to the cardiology department of an institute in the Parisian suburb of Le Plessis-Robinson. From there, he sought the services of a surgeon in Bordeaux to undertake a five-hour operation.
Singer Emma Heesters [28] shares news about her health: “Cancer has spread”
January 6, 2025
Dutch singer Emma Heesters (28) has completed her last chemotherapy, but now also appears to have metastases. She wrote this on Instagram. The singer announced in November that she had been diagnosed with cervical cancer. “The very last chemo, super happy! But unfortunately my treatment is not yet finished,” Emma Heesters said on Monday morning. “At first everything indicated that I was in stage 1, but after an operation to remove lymph nodes I was told that my cancer had spread (stage 3).” As a result, she had to undergo radiation in addition to chemotherapy. “So in recent weeks I have not only had chemotherapy every week, but also radiation/radiotherapy 5 times a week. The next few weeks will be the final, tough, steps!”, says Emma. She also points out to her followers to have a smear test done.
Obama did this with Trudeau in 2015, allowing in people with dark evil intent (Trudeau made deal with Obama to use Canada as gateway); 8 ISIS arrested in US after vetted by ICE & cleared to enter?
We must close US borders to assess whats inside, a proper accounting, and to eject all terrorists, NOW, we cannot wait for another San Bernadino Tasfeen Malik to kill scores of Americans…or Omar Marteen….we cannot wait for these untermensche beelzebub devils to blow themselves up for their cause to take innocent people with them, we cannot wait! HAMAS and Hezbollah terrorist are already inside America, waiting to strike!
No sane nation brings thousands of UNVETTED military-aged males into their nation with no understanding of where they go and are after letting them in…
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
These islamic males, these people WILL kill us, will rape your daughters to death, they did and are doing it in Europe, across Europe, go ask the girls of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Finland…go ask them why they don’t go out after 6 pm in Malmö Sweden…ask the blond ones why they color their hair black…ask them…
Let me be as clear as possible, many Americans will die at the hands of these terrorists that Bush, Obama, and Biden let in, they will be raped and killed, savagely for this is and was always the aim. We should have never let them in. We do not let MEDIEVAL people who think in the 6th century co-exist with us in the 21st century. It is time we closed the border to all immigration until we get this under control, that we vett properly and know exactly who is here.
‘The more open a European country is to Muslim mass migration, the more dangerous it is to women’
hat-tip for JK for on this she has stood up & out to help protect our children; I praise her! JK is 100% correct, this is absolute lunacy, this is medical butchery, this is WRONG & post-surgery regret
LA Mayor Karen Bass wanted to slash an extra $49 million from LAFD a WEEK before wildfires broke outAs raging wildfires consume Los Angeles, leaving it in devastation, Mayor Karen Bass faces criticism for proposed budget cuts to the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) that would have drastically changed the situation. A leaked memo, reveals plans to slash an additional $49 million from the department’s budget. The MEMO The leaked memo, acquired by the Daily Mail, by an …READ MORE
LA residents down man possibly connected to latest wildfires in LA, as he tries to start one in their neighborhoodA man suspected of attempting to start fires in Woodland Hills, California, was confronted by quick-thinking residents on Thursday afternoon, preventing further destruction amidst a region already ravaged by wildfires. Arrest Details Los Angeles police responded to reports of a man using a blowtorch to ignite multiple Christmas trees and piles of garbage near Arcos Drive and Galendo Street around …READ MORE
LATEST NEWS
20 suspects arrested after abusing wildfires to loot homes, shops: sheriffAs wildfires ravage Los Angeles County, criminals have exploited the chaos, targeting homes left vulnerable by evacuation orders. Sheriff Robert Luna announced Thursday morning that at least 20 individuals have been arrested for looting properties in fire-stricken neighborhoods. “Last night and this morning, we are up to 20 individuals who chose to go into our areas and deprive these poor …READ MORE
State Farm canceled hundreds of Pacific Palisades homeowners’ policiesAs wildfires devastate Southern California, residents of Pacific Palisades are facing a grim reality: their homes are burning, and many of their insurance policies were canceled just months ago by State Farm. The cancellations, part of a larger strategy to mitigate financial risk, have left over 72,000 homeowners statewide without coverage, with Pacific Palisades—a now-scorched, affluent neighborhood—among the hardest hit. …READ MORE
Trump calls for Gavin Newsom to resign as governor of CaliforniaOn Wednesday night, President Donald Trump issued a sharp rebuke of California Governor Gavin Newsom, demanding his resignation after the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires and what Trump characterized as a failed state response. “One of the best and most beautiful parts of the United States of America is burning down to the ground. It’s ashes, and Gavin News*um should resign. …READ MORE
LATEST NEWS
Pacific Palisades: Massive wall of flames threatens homes in BrentwoodThe Pacific Palisades fire, which has devastated Los Angeles this week, spread northeast on Saturday, putting multi-million-dollar homes in Brentwood at risk. The fast-moving blaze has already destroyed over 12,000 structures and claimed at least five lives. The fire’s rapid progression has been exacerbated by strong Santa Ana winds and limited access to water due to dry fire hydrants, leaving …READ MORE
Los Angeles residents launch petition for Mayor Karen Bass to ‘immediately resign’Los Angeles residents have launched a petition for Mayor Karen Bass to resign and it has surpassed 60,000 signatures, reflecting the public frustration over her handling of the devastating 2025 wildfires. The fires, which have ravaged areas in and around Los Angeles, have claimed at least 11 lives and forced over 130,000 Californians to evacuate their homes. The petition, hosted …READ MORE
Joe Biden has granted deportation protections for 800k migrants from three more countriesPresident Joe Biden has granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for migrants from El Salvador, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela, effectively shielding nearly 1 million individuals from deportation, according to New York Times. The latest TPS extension includes approximately 200,000 Salvadorans, 1,900 Sudanese, 103,700 Ukrainians, and 600,000 Venezuelans. These groups will be allowed to remain in the United States for at least …READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Canada
Top Radical Leftist Canadian Lawmaker Threatens Trump: “We’re Ready To Fight Like Hell” Against U.S.
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 09:25 AM
Jagmeet Singh, leader of Canada’s radical far-left New Democratic Party (NDP), launched a fierce rebuke of President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend, vowing to strongly oppose any attempts to impose tariffs on Canada or to push for its absorption as the 51st U.S. state.
“I have a message for Donald Trump. Our country is not for sale – not now, not ever,” Singh declared in a cringe-worthy video posted on X on Sunday afternoon.
“I’ve lived across the country and I can tell you the Canadians are a proud people. We’re proud of our country and we’re ready to fight like hell to defend it,” the socialist politician continued.
“If Donald Trump thinks he can pick a fight with us, there will be a price to pay,” he added.
Singh’s tough talk come as Trump has escalated calls for the U.S. and Canada to merge, citing economic and national security interests.
In November, Trump caused concern in both Canada and Mexico when he threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff unless the two countries took stronger action to address the migrant and fentanyl crises. The ultimatum led Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to swiftly travel to Mar-a-Lago for urgent discussions on how the U.S. and Canada could avert a tariff conflict.
Trump, speaking at a recent press conference at Mar-a-Lago, lamented over how the U.S. is treated by Canada, accusing its biggest trading partner of being subsidized by roughly $200 billion per year.
“They don’t essentially have a military,” Trump said. “They have a very small military. They rely on our military. It’s all fine but, you know, they have to pay for that. It’s very unfair. Something has to be done.”
“We are going to put very serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada,” Trump said, before shifting his attention to the influx of illegal substances entering the U.S. from Canada. “They come through Canada, too. The drugs coming through are at record numbers,” Trump stated. “So we are going to make up for that by putting tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Substantial tariffs. We want to get along with everybody but, you know, it takes two to tango.”
Not only have top Canadian politicians like Singh rejected Trump’s proposal, but former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also firmly opposed it.
Trudeau, who recently resigned, took to X on Tuesday to reiterate his strong stance, declaring, “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would ever become part of the United States.”
There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.
Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partner.
Additionally, Ontario Premier Doug Ford responded sharply to Trump’s suggestion, proposing a surprising counteroffer: for Canada to buy Alaska and Minnesota.
Ford believes that Mexico and China—not Canada—are responsible for the trade issues Trump has highlighted.
“I’ve talked to so many governors and congresspeople and senators and never once did they say Canada is the problem,” Ford told CNN on Monday. “I’ll tell you who the problem is: China is the problem. China shipping in cheap parts, putting them through Mexico. Mexico slapping on a ‘Made in Mexico’ sticker and shipping up through the U.S. and Canada. [It’s] costing American and Canadian jobs.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0200 DOWN 41 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 157.11 DOWN 0.478 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2125 DOWN .0075 OR 75 PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4418 UP 0.0005 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.77 PTS OR 0.25%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 190.25 PTS OR 1.00%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.31%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 176.60 PTS OR 0.92%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42;87 PTS OR 1.33%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.31
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2671.50
silver:$29.77
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 109.81 UP 49 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
Firefighters continued battling six wildfires across the LA County area. The two largest include Palisades (20,000 acres, 6% contained) and Eaton Fire (14,000 acres, 3% contained).
Here’s a breakdown of all six fires (courtesy of LA Times):
Palisades Fire: Burned 19,978 acres and numerous homes, businesses and landmarks in Pacific Palisades and westward along Pacific Coast Highway, toward Malibu. As of 5 a.m. Friday morning, the fire was 6% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Eaton Fire:Burned 13,956 acres and many structures in Altadena and Pasadena. Additional evacuation orders were mandated Thursday afternoon when fire climbed toward Mt. Wilson. Other mandatory evacuations were lifted as city officials notified residents in Glenoaks Canyon and Chevy Chase Canyon that it was safe to return to their homes. Gov. Gavin Newsom posted on X on Friday morning that the fire was 3% contained as of 7:30 a.m.
Kenneth Fire: Burned 960 acres near the border of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.As of 6 a.m. Friday morning, the fire was 35% contained, according to Cal Fire. All evacuation warnings have been lifted for the fire.
Sunset Fire: Burned 60 acres and triggered mandatory evacuation orders in Hollywood and the Hollywood Hills. The Los Angeles Fire Department lifted evacuation orders Thursday morning.
Hurst Fire: Burned 771 acres in the area around Sylmar. Evacuation orders have been lifted. As of 8 p.m. Thursday night the fire was 37% contained, according to Cal Fire.
Lidia Fire: Burned 394 acres in Acton and is 75% contained, according to Cal Fire.
Pacific Palisades reservoir was offline and empty when firestorm exploded
L.A. residents get more erroneous fire evacuation alerts, heightening tensions amid disaster
National Guard arrives in L.A., curfews planned to crack down on looting in fire-ravaged areas
Disney’s KABC station loses over-the-air signal from Mt. Wilson amid Eaton fire
* * *
Fires raging across the Los Angeles area entered their fourth day, killing at least ten people, forcing the evacuation of 180,000 residents, and destroying more than ten thousand structures. Preliminary estimates place damages and economic losses up to $150 billion.
As of Friday morning, five fires are burning across the LA County area. The largest, the Palisades Fire, has scorched 20,000 acres and is considered “one of the most destructive fires in the history of Los Angeles,” according to the LA fire chief on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Eaton Fire has burned 14,000 acres. The newest fires are Kenneth and Hidden Hills, which expanded in the overnight hours.
The Palisades Fire in Los Angeles has killed two people and grown to cover over 31 square miles, likely destroying thousands of structures, according to fire officials. It was 6% contained as of late Thursday night.
The Eaton Fire, in the hills above Altadena in northern Los Angeles County, has killed three people and burned more than 21 square miles. Between 4,000 and 5,000 structures were believed to have been destroyed or damaged. Cal Fire reported zero percent containment as of Thursday night.
The Kenneth Fire ignited in the Woodland Hills neighborhood of Los Angeles on Thursday and covered 960 acres with zero percent containment as of Thursday night, according to Cal Fire.
The Sunset Fire, which erupted Wednesday in Hollywood Hills, prompted a new round of mandatory evacuations and threatened iconic landmarks. By Thursday, all evacuation orders for the fire were lifted and the blaze had been fully contained, according to officials.
The Hurst and Lidia fires scorched at least 771 acres and 394 acres, respectively, Cal Fire said. The Hurst Fire was 37% contained and the Lidia Fire was 75% contained as of Thursday night.
Fire Map
About 180,000 LA County residents were under evacuation orders, and nearly 200,000 residents were under evacuation warnings, the county’s Office of Emergency Management stated. In the mandatory evacuation areas, 60,120 structures were at high fire risk, while 61,288 structures were at moderate risk in areas affected by evacuation warnings.
Over 10,000 structures, including homes, businesses, and smaller buildings such as RVs and sheds, have been destroyed this week in the out-of-control blazes.
Before-and-after satellite images from Maxar Technologies show the devastating impacts of the fires. Entire neighborhoods were burned to the ground.
Before/After
end
SUNDAY/EARLY MORNING
Palisades Fire Crisis Intensifies Ahead Of Windstorm Event Early Next Week
Sunday, Jan 12, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Update (2005ET):
LA Times provided the latest on all four fires raging across the LA County area:
Palisades Fire:
Burned 22,660 acres and numerous homes, businesses and landmarks in Pacific Palisades and westward along Pacific Coast Highway, toward Malibu. As of 10:30 a.m. Saturday morning, the fire was 11% contained. Many parts of Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Santa Monica, Calabasas, Brentwood and Encino are under evacuation orders or warnings. More than 12,000 structures remain threatened. Officials estimate that more than 5,300 structures, including many homes, have been damaged or destroyed.
Eaton Fire:
Burned 13,956 acres and many structures in Altadena and Pasadena. Additional evacuation orders were mandated Thursday afternoon when fire climbed toward Mt. Wilson. Other mandatory evacuations were lifted as city officials notified residents in Glenoaks Canyon and Chevy Chase Canyon that it was safe to return to their homes. As of 8 a.m. Saturday morning, the fire was 15 % contained, on Friday, it was only at 3%. Officials say 7,000 structures have been damaged in the fire.
Kenneth Fire:
Burned 1,052 acres near the border of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. As of 8 a.m. Saturday morning, the fire was 80% contained, according to Cal Fire. All evacuation warnings have been lifted for the fire.
Hurst Fire:
Burned 779 acres in the area around Sylmar. Evacuation orders have been lifted. As of 8 a.m. Saturday, the fire was 76% contained, according to Cal Fire.
Here are the latest LA Times headlines regarding the inferno:
All-out aerial assault works to save homes in Brentwood, Encino as Palisades fire approaches
LA County Supervisor invites Trump to see fire damage
UCLA students on high alert, but not under evacuation orders
1,680 National Guard troops now helping in fire zone
LADWP said 20% of fire hydrants sustained a loss of pressure
After faulty cell alerts during fire emergency, LA County overhauls its system
High winds, low humidity expected to fuel fires through Wednesday: ‘Not looking good’
Death toll from LA firestorms rises to 13
Accuweather reported, “Santa Ana winds will pick up Saturday night into Sunday morning in Southern California, but a possibly strong wind event is coming early next week as wildfires continue.”
He’s not wrong. That’s why local elections matter. We suspect a political shift is on the horizon.
If you live in Pacific Palisades, you paid your dues…
Doctors, lawyers, agents, entrepreneurs, etc.
You believed in the American Dream. You paid your taxes. You trusted the system.
Then you adopted luxury beliefs like Affirmative Action and DEI and Climate Change™ and… pic.twitter.com/nYf30k1jEI
But have you LOOKED at the prices of homes in Palisades? 5-50 MILLION DOLLARS… if insurance is forced to insure these homes the rest of us pay the price. Build multimillion dollar homes in fire prone hills at your own risk, not mine. https://t.co/6iGQaXEwZhpic.twitter.com/jHIU6z0vsR
Two men are said to have been caught on camera dumping gasoline and setting it alight immediately before the devastating Palisades fire broke out, DailyMail.com has learned exclusively.
A resident of the ritzy celeb-packed area reported the video to a senior firefighter once the flames had started consuming the area.
About that ‘climate change’ narrative pushed by far-left corporate media.
Palisades Fire Threatens New Upscale Communities As Santa Ana Winds Return
Sunday, Jan 12, 2025 – 09:55 AM
The Los Angeles Fire Department continued battling four major blazes that have burned over 38,000 acres and destroyed over 10,000 structures. Another round of Santa Ana winds is expected from Monday through Wednesday, elevating fears that the fires will continue to spread. The Palisades Fire has placed Brentwood, Encino, Bel Air, Sherman Oaks, and West Los Angeles at severe risk. Additionally, Malibu has lost a third of its eastern edge to the Palisades Fire.
Here’s the latest size and containment of the four major fires:
On Saturday, the Palisades Fire threatened the communities of Brentwood, Encino, Bel Air, Sherman Oaks, and West Los Angeles as the inferno continued to spread. Very tense moments unfolded as the LAFD battled out-of-control flames that almost crossed the 405 freeway into parts of Bel Air.
🇺🇸 “Large-scale fires in Los Angeles may have been caused by a broken wire of one of the power lines” – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/k3ElpVWIHY
Today will be another challenging day for LAFD personnel. Strong Santa Ana winds are expected to return to Los Angeles and Ventura counties later this evening through the first half of the new week.
The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for the area, with wind gusts expected between 50 and 75 mph.
“The very dry vegetation combined with the prolonged extreme fire weather conditions will support rapid spread and erratic behavior of any new or existing fires,” NWS wrote in the warning.
The latest headlines from NBC Los Angeles:
Almost 35,000 still without power in LA County
Firefighters fend off Palisades Fire’s threat to Mandeville Canyon, Encino
Malibu has lost about 1/3 of its eastern edge, mayor says
2 arrested for curfew violations near Brentwood home of Vice President Harris
Death toll in Southern California wildfires climbs to 16
Early Sunday morning, on Truth Social, President-elect Trump criticized woke Californian politicians, calling them “incompetent” and claiming they “have no idea how to put” the fires out.
“Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost. There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our Country. They just can’t put out the fires. What’s wrong with them?” Trump said.
The fires are still raging in L.A. The incompetent pols have no idea how to put them out. Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost. There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our Country. They just…
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) January 12, 2025
Days ago, Elon Musk wrote on X the massive loss of mansions across LA has primarily been a failure of California Gov. Gavin Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass…
Exactly. Climate change risk is real, just much slower than alarmists claim.
The immense loss of homes in LA is primarily due to:
1. Nonsensical overregulation that prevented creating fire breaks and doing brush clearing.
Newsom, a far-left radical, was Community Noted on X.
A ridiculous lie. We have doubled the size of our firefighting army, built the world’s largest aerial firefighting fleet, and increased the forest management ten-fold since taking office.
And the people in power in LA are far-left social justice warriors who made important decisions about governing through an “equity lens.”
“What attracted me most to the role was social equity. It’s important for me that everything we do is with an equity lens and social justice and writing the wrongs that we’ve done in the past,” Janisse Quiñones, the head of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, recently stated on a local radio station.
🚨 The LA Water Chief who is paid $750,000 a year: “What attracted me most to the role was social equity. It’s important for me that everything we do is with an equity lens and social justice and writing the wrongs that we’ve done in the past.” pic.twitter.com/FmlLFsHuba
There will be a major investigation into why the massive reservoir in Pacific Palisades was not filled, knowing about dry conditions, high winds, and elevated fire risk. Plus, Mayor Bass slashed the budget for the LAFD.
🚨 JUST IN: The Pacific Palisades reservoir was EMPTY AND OFFLINE when the firestorm exploded, per LA Times
This is CRIMINAL.
The reservoir holds 117 million gallons of water, and would’ve given firefighters ample pressure to effectively fight the blaze.
Meanwhile, Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass, used the typical Democratic Party playbook to deflect from the incompetence (DEI = DIE) of California politicians, using talking points that described California wildfires as “what a climate emergency looks like.”
Markey should be called “Malarkey Markey”…
Trump has been bought for $1 billion by Big Oil. Just a payoff to kill the IRA and the Green New Deal. We know what will happen. More fires, more climate disasters, more death. The LA fires are preview of coming atrocities.
Trump has been bought for $1 billion by Big Oil. Just a payoff to kill the IRA and the Green New Deal. We know what will happen. More fires, more climate disasters, more death. The LA fires are preview of coming atrocities.
This time, Democrats won’t be able to hide behind climate change farce. Real accountability is coming. People died, thousands lost everything, and even liberals in LA are turning on their far-left politicians who were never actual real competent managers, to begin with, just social justice warriors with ‘equity’ Marxism pom-poms. Remember, Marxists hate capitalism.
END
LOS ANGELES FIRE/MONDAY
Inferno-Plagued Palisades Braces For Santa Ana Windstorm As Death Toll Rises
by Tyler Durden
Firefighters are racing to contain three active wildfires in Los Angeles County as Santa Ana winds are forecasted to return Monday morning. The fires have scorched 40,000 acres, forced the evacuation of at least 150,000 residents, and claimed 24 lives. Residents are expressing outrage at far-left Democratic politicians in the county and state, blaming them for negligence in the spread of the Palisades Fire. At the same time, AP News tried to provide cover for Democrats and blame the fire’s spread on ‘climate change.’
The National Weather Service has issued “Particularly Dangerous Situation” red flag warnings for the Ventura and Los Angeles counties through Wednesday. Gusts are expected to be between 50 and 65 mph, with dry air that will worsen conditions for firefighters and likely lead to more evacuations.
Burned 23,713 acres and numerous homes, businesses and landmarks in Pacific Palisades and westward along Pacific Coast Highway, toward Malibu. As of late Sunday, the fire was 13% contained. Many parts of Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Santa Monica, Calabasas, Brentwood and Encino are under evacuation orders or warnings. More than 12,000 structures remain threatened. Officials estimate that more than 5,300 structures, including many homes, have been damaged or destroyed.
Eaton Fire:
Burned 14,117 acres and many structures in Altadena and Pasadena. Additional evacuation orders were mandated Thursday afternoon when fire climbed toward Mt. Wilson. Other mandatory evacuations were lifted as city officials notified residents in Glenoaks Canyon and Chevy Chase Canyon that it was safe to return to their homes. As of 8 p.m. Sunday, the fire remained 27% contained. Officials say 7,000 structures have been burned in the fire.
Hurst Fire:
Burned 779 acres in the area around Sylmar. Evacuation orders have been lifted. As of Sunday night, the fire was 89% contained, according to Cal Fire.
As Californians already face significant challenges finding home insurance, the fires ravaging Los Angeles County could make it even more difficult and costly to insure properties in the future.
Deadly fires erupted beginning Jan. 7, causing at least 11 deaths, leading to the ongoing ordered evacuation at one point of more than 180,000 individuals, with another 200,000 warned to get ready for possible evacuation.
More than 10,000 buildings are damaged or destroyed across the county, according to the latest estimates, with the number expected to rise as fires are minimally contained, in what some are describing as one of the most costly natural disasters in American history. AccuWeather estimates economic losses from the fires to reach up to $150 billion.
As of the latest tally on Jan. 9, the Pacific Palisades fire destroyed nearly 6,000 structures, including oceanfront mansions in neighborhoods north of Santa Monica, where homes sell for between $7 million and $20 million, with an average price of more than $3 million across the city.
The affluent area is made up of primarily white-collar workers, according to Cal Fire demographics data, which shows slightly fewer than half of the structures affected by the Palisades Fire were built since 1970, and about 12,000 are older.
Videos of the aftermath show businesses and homes leveled by fire, with the blocks of some neighborhoods completely demolished by the inferno.
State Farm non-renewed approximately 1,600 policies in the region in 2024, of approximately 30,000 homeowners and 42,000 apartment policies it dropped statewide, citing rising costs and risks.
“This decision was not made lightly and only after careful analysis of State Farm General’s financial health, which continues to be impacted by inflation, catastrophe exposure, reinsurance costs, and the limitations of working within decades-old insurance regulations,” the company said in a statement.
“State Farm General takes seriously our responsibility to maintain adequate claims-paying capacity for our customers and to comply with applicable financial solvency laws. It is necessary to take these actions now.”
Approximately 6,000 structures were lost in the Eaton Fire, as of the most recent count on Jan. 10. The East Altadena and Hasting Heights neighborhoods sustained significant damage.
The average value of homes in the area is approximately $1.4 million, according to the online real estate listing firm Zillow.
Ricardo Lara, commissioner of the state’s Department of Insurance,issued a one-year moratorium on Jan. 10, preventing non-renewals and cancellations for households in and adjacent to the fire sites.
“I am using my moratorium powers … so people don’t face the added stress of finding new insurance during this horrific event,” he said in a statement. “I am working on all fronts to make sure wildfire victims get the benefits they are entitled to, and they get it as soon as possible.”
Insurance Market Stability in Question
With losses mounting, California’s already precarious insurance market could become more challenging if insurers become more hesitant to write policies.
The state is going through what lawmakers and other elected officials have deemed a “genuine crisis” that is affecting millions of Californians.
Supervisors in counties from across the state passed resolutions last year calling for a state of emergency due to a lack of affordable insurance.
“At this point, it’s not an exaggeration to say the state’s facing an insurance crisis of both affordability and availability,” Ray Mueller, San Mateo County supervisor, said during a board meeting on Oct. 8.
Seven of the 12 largest insurers, including State Farm which represents about 10 percent of the market share, according to Department of Insurance data, paused writing new policies since 2023.
A lack of availability has left many Californians with only one option, the so-called FAIR plan—an insurer of last resort financially backed by insurance companies.
In the event the plan goes insolvent, insurers are on the hook to cover the losses, with each company paying out based on market share—thus incentivizing limiting liability by reducing exposure, analysts said.
The number of homes insured with the FAIR plan skyrocketed in recent years—now totaling more than 450,000 policies—overwhelming staff assigned with managing calls, representatives with the state’s Department of Insurance testified to the Senate Insurance Committee last year.
Those stuck with the plans say they’re anything but fair, with some households paying as much as 500 percent more for less coverage.
Coverage was limited to $3 million per structure for residential homes, which could pose a problem for some homeowners in coastal areas impacted by fire where values far exceed the cap.
It is unclear how many homes affected by the recent fires were covered by the FAIR plan.
Regulatory Hurdles
Insurance companies have shied away from doing business in the Golden State because of strict regulations that limit rate hikes and stall application processes, Rex Frazier, president of the Personal Insurance Federation of California, told The Epoch Times.
He called for an expedited approval process and said the higher construction, labor, and reinsurance costs dictate the need for more expensive premiums.
Some of the largest insurers recently requested price hikes of 30 percent or more, and the insurance department is processing the applications.
“The problem is that the solution to the problem is going to be higher premiums, and people aren’t going to like that,” state Sen. Roger Niello, vice chair of the Senate’s Insurance Committee, told The Epoch Times.
The industry points to a challenging regulatory environment exacerbated by fire risk and inflation as reasons companies are reducing coverage in California.
Other points of contention for insurers are strict rules set in place by Proposition 103—known as the Insurance Rate Reduction and Reform Act—narrowly approved by voters in 1988 to oversee the industry after automobile insurance prices spiked.
“It’s a real issue,” Niello said. “And it’s a problem because we passed an initiative 30 years ago with an extremely small margin of victory … in a market and under circumstances that were completely different than they are now.”
Looking for Solutions
Insurance department officials have agreed that some of the regulations are inhibiting progress.
“Californians in every corner of our state are frustrated with outdated regulations and desperate for change,” Commissioner Lara said in a June 2024 press release. “We are addressing this crisis of insurance availability head-on. For the many Californians who live anywhere where wildfires are a threat, my strategy will increase their options while requiring insurance companies to take their wildfire safety actions seriously,”
He released new guidelines last year that will allow insurers to use models that will allow for higher pricing, and the cap on FAIR plan coverage is raised to $20 million per structure.
To help reduce the number of homeowners relying on the FAIR plan, the new rules require insurers to increase the number of policies written in high-risk areas by at least 5 percent.
One policy analyst said removing government oversight and allowing a free market to determine pricing could be a more effective solution.
“Deregulation is a simpler answer. Hundreds of insurers could then freely compete for Californians’ business, with third parties informing consumers about each company’s financial status and claims-handling behavior,” Marc Joffe wrote in a December analysis for the Cato Institute.
“And there would be an added bonus: by eliminating the Department of Insurance, the state could reduce its 3 percent tax on insurance premiums, part of which funds the department, providing an immediate savings for consumers.”
END
L.A. Residents Sue Edison Utility Over Potential Role In Palisades Fire
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 01:20 PM
Update (1320ET):
Energy company Edison International was sued on Monday for its alleged role in igniting at least one of the wildfires in Los Angeles County.
Bloomberg reports, “The lawsuit is on behalf of a group of homeowners, renters, business owners and others with properties destroyed by the Eaton Fire in the Pasadena area,” adding, “The suit alleges a Southern California Edison pole holding power lines was the cause of the blaze that leveled the town of Altadena.”
*EDISON UTILITY SUED OVER ROLE OF EQUIPMENT IN LOS ANGELES FIRE *EDISON SUIT COMES AS FIRE STILL RAGING IN PASADENA AREA OF LA
Shares of Edison International plunged 13% on Monday morning, bringing the total decline since the fires started nearly one week ago to 28%. The daily RSI (14D) has fallen to 7.9.
Zooming in on the most oversold RSI ever…
Edison did not comment on the suit that appeared on the Los Angeles Superior Court website on Monday morning.
Meanwhile, it’s only a matter of time before lawsuits are filed against the City of Los Angeles or even the State of California for gross negligence. These lawsuits will likely cite improper forest management, cuts to fire budgets, and the mishandling of the Palisades Reservoir, given that city officials knew very well about dry conditions and wind storms ahead of the first full week of the new year.
end
* * *
Firefighters are racing to contain three active wildfires in Los Angeles County as Santa Ana winds are forecasted to return Monday morning. The fires have scorched 40,000 acres, forced the evacuation of at least 150,000 residents, and claimed 24 lives. Residents are expressing outrage at far-left Democratic politicians in the county and state, blaming them for negligence in the spread of the Palisades Fire. At the same time, AP News tried to provide cover for Democrats and blame the fire’s spread on ‘climate change.’
The National Weather Service has issued “Particularly Dangerous Situation” red flag warnings for the Ventura and Los Angeles counties through Wednesday. Gusts are expected to be between 50 and 65 mph, with dry air that will worsen conditions for firefighters and likely lead to more evacuations.
MSNBC Attacks Trump And Musk For Telling The Truth About Suspicious LA Fires
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 10:05 AM
When leftists are faced with the inevitable consequences of their own political policies it’s rare for them to sit down and reflect on their failures. Instead, they double down and refuse to admit any fault whatsoever. They will make excuse after excuse and blame scapegoat after scapegoat. In a city like Los Angeles and a state like California which have been micro-managed by Democrats for decades with zero input from conservatives, somehow, they still find a way to attack their ideological opposition in the wake of a disaster.
Leftists do not admit wrongdoing when criticized. Rather, their default is to go on the offensive against their critics in an attempt to flip the table and change the subject. They do this so often that one begins to wonder if they care at all about the destruction they have caused? Maybe their policies did not fail? Maybe destruction is exactly what they want?
Former Biden Administration Press Secretary Jen Psaki took to MSNBC recently to dismiss claims of mismanagement on the part of the LA government and their fire response teams. Instead of admitting to the reality that the area had little to no water and limited equipment to fight the fires because of terrible planning, Psaki tries to make the event all about Donald Trump, Elon Musk and even Alex Jones.
It should be noted that Psaki once again spread lies about Trump’s position on FEMA and Hurricane Helene as a way to diminish his valid accusations against LA and CA management policies. It is a fact that FEMA funds were widely spent by the Biden Admin and funneled into the pockets of illegal immigrants instead of being used to help American citizens in need. Democrats continue to spread falsehoods about this even though they have been debunked.
YOU’RE THE LIAR JOE: The Biden-Harris regime is pulling the wool over our eyes. For years, they’ve proudly highlighted FEMA’s role in facilitating illegal immigration through press conferences and press releases. Now, suddenly, they’re acting like it never happened. Here’s Karine… pic.twitter.com/fz0SP3cDhq
Psaki then accuses Trump and Elon Musk of spreading disinformation when it comes to the city’s DEI initiatives and their crippling effects on the government’s readiness. It’s not just about LA’s first female lesbian fire chief, Kristine Crowley. There’s also the issue of LA’s mayor, Karen Bass, who cut at least $17 million from the LAFD budget for 2024-2025 with another $48 million in cuts on the way. Claims of budget increases revolve around funding to improve salaries and benefits. New money did not go to fire fighting infrastructure, a problem which Fire Chief Kristine Crowley warned about.
Then there’s the issue of DEI hires like LA Assistant Fire Chief Kristine Larson, who argued that she should not have to carry a man out of a fire because he ‘got himself in the wrong place’.
LAFD Assistant Chief Kristine Larson says “You want to see somebody that responds to your house, your emergency—whether it’s a medical call or a fire call—that looks like you. It gives that person a little bit more ease…”
No one cares if the firefighter saving their life “looks like them”.
And how about the LA Water Chief, who was in charge of a water collection infrastructure that had little to no water when the fires erupted? Is she a DEI hire? Decide for yourself…
🚨 The LA Water Chief who is paid $750,000 a year: “What attracted me most to the role was social equity. It’s important for me that everything we do is with an equity lens and social justice and writing the wrongs that we’ve done in the past.” pic.twitter.com/FmlLFsHuba
LA is, at the very least, a victim of its own DEI incompetence. Whether or not there is a conspiracy to sabotage US infrastructure, if proper procedures had been followed and resources gathered the fires would not have spread as quickly or as far as they did. The bottom line? LA had nowhere near enough resources.
Democrats have responded by claiming that “no water system” is capable of fighting the kind of fires seen in LA. If this is truly the case, then why didn’t they use funds to create a system that could handle a major fire? It’s always the same with leftists – all excuses and no answers.
So far the fires have done up to $130 billion in damage, burning more than 12,000 structures from homes to businesses and scorching tens of thousands of acres. Some of America’s most valuable real estate is in ashes and the public is left bewildered.
Democrats, as usual, have tried to go with the “global warming” theory, until at least two men were arrested with possible charges of arson. One of those men, Jose Carranza-Escobar, has already admitted to starting at least one blaze in the Azuza area. Very little information has been released on Escobar other than he is a “transient” according to police. The other man has been identified as Juan Manuel Sierra-Leyva, an alleged illegal immigrant arrested for starting fires in the Kenneth area.
Other reports indicate some odd behaviors and coincidences, including people throwing full containers of gasoline onto highways (allowing fires to more easily spread across the road). If this is true, it suggests possible coordination to start or worsen the fires. Of course, random psychotic behavior could also be blamed.
People were spotted throwing gasoline to fuel the fires in California…
More investigation is needed, but arson is notoriously difficult to prove. What is not random is the complete lack of practical preparedness on the part of the city government. For now all that can be done is to put the current LA and CA officials under a microscope and force them to resign or change their methods; methods which clearly do not work. Democrats prefer that this incident be forgotten and that business carry on a usual once the ashes are swept away (which is exactly what happened after the Maui fires). This cannot be allowed to happen again.
Macy’s and Kohl’s announce huge closures of 93 stores in total
(EpochTimes)
Macy’s And Kohl’s Announce Closures Of 93 Stores In Total
Retail chains Macy’s and Kohl’s are set to shut down nearly 100 stores across the country, with the decision following several quarters of negative year-over-year revenue growth.
Macy’s is closing 66 stores across 22 states in an effort to “return the company to sustainable, profitable sales growth,” the retailer said in a Jan. 9 statement. Out of the 66 outlets, two have already been closed. A majority of the stores are expected to be closed during the first quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, Kohl’s announced plans to shutter 27 “underperforming stores” across 15 states by April this year.
Macy’s year-over-year quarterly revenue growth registered declines for the past 10 consecutive quarters. The retailer’s “Bold New Chapter” strategy plans to shut down 150 unproductive stores while “investing in its 350 go-forward Macy’s locations through fiscal 2026,” the statement said.
Macy’s CEO Tony Spring said that closing unproductive outlets would “allow us to focus our resources and prioritize investments in our go–forward stores, where customers are already responding positively to better product offerings and elevated service.”
Shares of the company were down by more than 15 percent over the past year.
As for Kohl’s, most of the closures are set to take place in California, with 10 outlets shutting down in the state.
In addition, the company aims to shutter its San Bernardino E-commerce Fulfillment Center (EFC) in May, when the facility’s lease term expires. It is one of the 15 EFCs and distribution centers linked to the company across the United States.
Kohl’s justified the decision, saying it is in a position to fulfill orders without the San Bernardino facility.
“All associates have been informed, and offered a competitive severance package or the ability to apply to other open roles at Kohl’s,” it said.
Kohl’s quarterly revenues have registered a year-over-year decline for 11 straight quarters. Over the past year, the company’s shares have crashed by more than 51 percent.
Tough Business Conditions
Several companies have slashed store counts, shuttered divisions, or filed for bankruptcy in recent months, citing profitability and cost challenges.
This week, REI, a specialty outdoor retailer, said the company was exiting from its Experiences business, which included day tours and adventure travel. CEO Eric Artz said the segment “costs significantly more to run than it brings in.”
“When we look at the all-up costs of running this business, including costs like marketing and technology, we are losing millions of dollars every year and subsidizing Experiences with profits from other parts of the business,” he said.
Last month, party goods retailer Party City announced filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and shuttering almost 700 stores nationwide after being in business for almost four decades.
The company said the decision was taken to ensure continued operations while it faced an “immensely challenging environment driven by inflationary pressures on costs and consumer spending, among other factors.”
In October 2024, convenience store chain 7-Eleven announced closing 444 underperforming stores to boost efficiency and manage costs.
According to a report from S&P Global, U.S. corporate bankruptcies hit a 14-year high in 2024, registering 694 filings. S&P’s bankruptcy calculations only consider large companies that exceed certain asset and liability thresholds.
“Businesses continued to face pressure in 2024 from elevated interest rates, especially as total debt among credit-rated non-financial U.S. companies reached a quarterly record of $8.453 trillion,” the report said.
“While some relief came in September when the U.S. Federal Reserve began lowering its benchmark interest rate from a 20-year high, the central bank’s monetary easing may slow in 2025.”
Overall commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies rose by 20 percent in 2024, according to a Jan. 3 statement from the American Bankruptcy Institute. Michael Hunter, vice president of bankruptcy data provider Epiq AACER, said he expects the filing growth to continue throughout this year.
“If the current trend continues, new bankruptcy filings will return to pre-pandemic normalized volumes over the next 24–30 months,” he said.
end
Trump’s 3 ideas of buying Greenland, Canada and taking over the Panama Canal
Why is it that people are always calling for someone to think “outside the box,” then when someone does, say, “Aaaak! He thought outside the box!”
In that view, President-elect Donald J. Trump has already committed (at least) three heresies: Buy Greenland, stop China from controlling the Panama Canal and deepen America’s affiliation with Canada.
All three ideas are neither crazy nor even new.
President Harry S. Truman looked at acquiring Greenland in 1946.
Thomas Jefferson, after the Louisiana Purchase, proposed buying Cuba – just think how the Cubans would be prospering now, politically and economically, if that deal had gone through. Those acquisitions didn’t take place but in 1917, the US did acquire Denmark’s Virgin Islands for $25 million. As historian Stephen Press writes,
“As secretary of state, John Quincy Adams arranged debt relief for Spain in exchange for Florida. Secretary of State William Seward acquired Alaska. What Mr. Trump proposes is consistent with this American tradition—and with our current borders. Sovereignty purchases are responsible for more than 40% of U.S. land…
“History suggests the benefits of being open-minded about this. Inhabitants of Alaska wouldn’t be better off under Russian sovereignty. Bringing Greenlanders into closer affiliation with the U.S., and sweetening the deal with economic subsidies, could conceivably prove beneficial to all parties”
“We gave the Panama Canal to Panama,” Trump has pointed out.
“We didn’t give it to China. They’ve abused that gift.”
The US built the Panama Canal in the first place to be able to avoid having commercial and military sea traffic avoid the long journey around South America’s southernmost sea route, the Strait of Magellan – where the Chinese Communist Party also located a base.
If there were to be a conflict with Communist China, it would be easy enough for them to block the Canal to U.S. use. As China expert Gordon G. Chang has pointed out:
“China’s port facilities are at both ends of the canal. And when Gen. Laura Richardson took a helicopter ride over the Canal Zone, this was the middle of 2022; she said she ‘looked down and saw all of these dual-use facilities.’ … at a time of war, they could make the canal totally useless…. They say that we have a two-ocean Navy. Well, we would have two separate navies. It’d be very difficult to get ships from the Atlantic to the Pacific, or vice versa.”
Closer ties with Canada, as Trump appears to see them, would make a united-in-some-way North America a formidable landmass to any would-be adversary.
“You get rid of that artificially drawn line,” Trump stated, “and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security. Don’t forget, we protect Canada.”
Trump seems to have been merely responding to the opening provided him by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, days before the latter announced that he would be resigning. According to Trump:
“I said what would happen if we didn’t do it. He said Canada would dissolve. Canada wouldn’t be able to function, if we didn’t take their 20% of our car market… So, I said to him, well, why are we doing it? He said, I don’t really know. He was unable to answer the question, but I can answer it. We’re doing it because of habit, and we’re doing it because we like our neighbors ,and we’ve been good neighbors. But we can’t do it forever and it’s a tremendous amount of money. And why should we have a $200 billion deficit and add on to that many, many other things that we give them in terms of subsidy?”
It seems to have begun already — and he is not even president yet.
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
VDH
KING REPORT
The King Report January 13, 2025 Issue 7408
Independent View of the News
US Nonfarm Payrolls increased 256,000 in December; the unemployment rate fell 0.1 to 4.1%. October (+7k) and November (-15k) NFP revisions net +8k jobs. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Household Survey Highlights Employed +467k, Unemployed -235k, Not in Labor Force -68k; the Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 62.5%; the Employment-Population Ratio increased 0.2 to 60%
Establishment Survey Highlights Retail +43.3k; Private Education & Healthcare +80k with Healthcare & Social Services +69.5k; Leisure & Hospitality +43k; Government +33k
The seasonal adjustment for Dec 2023 NFP was -965k. It is -922k for Dec 2024. (Table B-1)
Dec 2023 Birth/Death Model -57k; Dec 2024 Birth/Death Model -52k.
Seasonal adjustment changes created 5k (B/D Model) and 43k (Table B-1) or 48k NFP.
The 10-year US government note yield hit 4.786%. It was 3.60% the day before the Fed started cutting rates in September. The 30-year hit 5%. The market shifted the next rate cut to October.
There was no reason for the Fed’s jumbo rate (50bps) weeks ahead of a general election. There was no systemic problem, no crisis, no pending ‘big’ problem, and the economy was fine. PE Powell and Fed leftists wanted to aid and abet Kamala Harris. That is all.
Jan UM Sentiment 73.2, 74 expected and prior; Current Conditions 77.9, 75.1 expected and prior; Expectations 0.2, 72.7 expected, 73.3 prior; 1-year Inflation 3.3%, 2.8% expected and prior; 5-10-year Inflation 3.3%, 3.0% expected and prior.
@M_McDonough: This is still the most striking chart in economics and politics: the complete flip in one-year inflation expectations among Democrats vs. Republicans after the election. The Jan ’25 data was updated this AM, find it on WSL ELECTION. https://x.com/M_McDonough/status/1877735261095731599
US consumer sentiment surveys have lost validity and reliability due to political polarity.
ESHs traded modestly higher during the first two hours of Nikkei trading. They then commenced a tight channel decline the endured until they plunged after the US December Employment Report.
ESHs hit a daily low of 5845.25 at 12:08 ET. There were two moderate rallies and one minor rally before the low occurred. ESHs then zoomed higher on buying for the ingrained Friday Afternoon Rally. ESHs hit a peak of 59007.25 at 13:57 ET and then commenced a new down leg.
ESHs sank, with only two minor interruptions, to 5858.00 at 15:32 ET. After a modest rally, EHS rolled over and were 5962.50 at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session Hopefully, the egregious rigging of economic data will soon end.
Negative aspects of previous session The S&P 500 Index high occurred at the NYSE opening. Fangs got hammered; bonds sank; energy commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will Biden do during the final week of his reign of torpor?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5841.72 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5890.35; 5807.78
On Friday, Trump received an unconditional discharge in the NYC hush money case—no jail time, no fine, no penalties. Now, Team Trump can appeal the convictions – and investigate the persecutors.
DJT statement regarding Judge Juan Merchan’s criminal sentencing: “… Today’s event was a despicable charade, and now that it is over, we will appeal this Hoax, which has no merit, and restore the trust of Americans in our once great System of Justice…” https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1877745969665569022
Alan Dershowitz says judge ‘played a trick’ on SCOTUS regarding Trump sentencing in hush money case – “This judge deliberately announced in advance that he wasn’t going to sentence him to jail in order to get the Supreme Court not to take the case and when the Supreme Court didn’t take the case, what happened is they basically said, ‘since he’s not going to jail we don’t have to consider the case. Now we can wait until the appeal comes up,'” Dershowitz said. “Judge Merchan played a trick on the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court fell for it,” he later added.https://t.co/hdnIvVGVOE
Ex-Sen Judiciary Com Counsel @mrddmia: Dear Judge Juan Merchan: You better hope your daughter Loren Merchan has saved the money she’s raised off your unprecedented, bogus trial of Trump. You may desperately need that to cover your legal expenses for your blatant corruption.
Greenland leaders ready to talk with Trump after prez-elect expressed interest to make territory part of America – “We have a desire for independence…”https://trib.al/D17Rh0V
The Articles of Confederation provide Canada with a fast track to statehood! Article XI of the Articles of Confederation provides: Canadaacceding to this confederation, and joining in the measures of the United States, shall be admitted into, and entitled to all the advantages of this union: but no other colony shall be admitted into the same, unless such admission be agreed to by nine states…But would Trump really want all of Canada? Or maybe just Alberta, a fairly conservative province with vast oil and gas deposits, that could be exempted from NEPA. Maybe the people of Alberta might even favor statehood. And the Articles of Confederation may provide a fast-pass for admission… https://reason.com/volokh/2025/01/10/some-legal-questions-about-greenland-puerto-rico-and-alberta/
Biden officials ‘screamed’ and ‘cursed’ at Meta execs to take down vaccine posts, Mark Zuckerberg tells Joe Rogan https://trib.al/6OvkzU0
@TimcastNews: “They basically pushed us and said anything that says vaccines might have side effects, you basically need to take down.” On Joe Rogan, Mark Zuckerberg confirms that the Biden administration told Facebook to censor any posts that alluded to vaccines having side effects. https://x.com/TimcastNews/status/1877784105854599575
Biden insists Kamala Harris could have beaten Trump and is left stunned by reporter asking if he’d ‘pardon himself’ – ‘I think I would have beaten Trump – could have beaten Trump,’ he said, days before Trump is set to return to power. ‘And I think that Kamala could have beaten Trump, would have beaten Trump. It wasn’t about – I thought it was important to unify the party,’ he said… ‘For myself? What would I pardon myself for?’ Biden said, stunned. ‘No I have no contemplation of pardoning myself for anything. I didn’t do anything wrong,’ he said… https://t.co/1B9nSL841e
@Bubblebathgirl: Joe Biden says he’s going to pardon people based on who Trump criticizes. This is one of the most insane things Biden has ever said. Talk about making a mockery out of the presidency. https://x.com/Bubblebathgirl/status/1877860946518901008 Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle):That we survived as a country these past four years with this man in the White House is a miracle. Listen carefully to what he said when asked about his pardons.
@EricLDaugh: President Joe Biden reaches lowest approval rating in his entire term – 538 Approve: 36.2% (-20.4), Disapprove: 56.6%
Fed Balance Sheet: +$1.063B; Reserves at Fed: +$158.746B (Seasonal jump)
Today – This is Expiry Week and the start of Q4 earnings results. Big banks begin reporting on Wednesday. Stocks are very oversold on a trading basis. So, barring ugly news, the ingredients are present for a Monday Rally and possibly the Expiry Week and Earnings Season Rallies.
The DJIA, S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, NY Fang+ Index, and the Russell 2000 closed below their December lows in January. This normally portends tough sledding in the coming months. December lows are seldom violated in January, led alone within the first six sessions. The DJTA and DJUA are slightly above their December lows. Technically, stocks are in big-time trouble.
ESHs are -11.75; NQHs -37.75; and USHs +1/32 at 20:10 ET. No Sunday Night Rally so far.
Expected Economic Data: Dec Federal Budget -$73.8B
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5952; 100-day MA: 5820; 150-day MA: 5702; 200-day MA: 5573 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,444; 100-day MA: 42,642; 150-day MA: 41,634; 200-day MA: 40,928 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5827.04 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5367.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6056.27 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5914.56 triggers a buy signal
Gavin Newsom cut fire budget by $100m last year while giving more water to tiny tribal fishhttps://t.co/QdOHRam9AG
Fox11 LA’s @GigiGraciette: A reminder that the Mayor of Los Angeles said yesterday that budget cuts made to the LAFD had no impact on response to major fires. Yet there are dozens of memos dating back to 2023 where LAFD Chief warned the department was seriously “understaffed and underfunded”. We reviewed this memo from LAFD Chief to the Board of Fire Commissioners dated 12/4/2024 where Chief Crowley warned that cuts “severely limited the Department’s capacity to prepare for, train for, and respond to large-scale emergencies”. https://x.com/GigiGraciette/status/1877900817996407223/photo/2
LA Times Owner @DrPatSoonShiong: Wildfire disaster proves why ‘competence,’ not party, matters in electing leaders:competence matters. Brentwood evacuating today. Never in LA history has the wildfire destroyed so much and affected so many. Our hearts go out to all Angelenos. Stay safe.
@sunnyright: FOX11’s Gigi Graciette says that she’s been told by firefighters how often they’re not allowed to admit on camera that a fire was caused by homeless camps because it’s a controversial topic the city government doesn’t want discussed.
@shaunmmaguire: There are gangs in LA deliberately starting fires so that people evacuate then and they can rob their homes. This is happening at a large scale, at least 100 robbers. Likely the Chilean crime syndicate. (Open borders have consequences)
@CharlieKNews: Arson suspect arrested in Los Angeles with 5 cell phones and a United Nations pre-paid debit card… (Sleeper cells activated?)
@Twitawoo8: DARPA document on how to use “forest fires as a weapon”. It’s 170 pages long. https://t.co/zmKxAnauYG
Jamie Lee Curtis SLAMMED for making ‘devastating’ comparison (Gaza) to the LA fires: ‘Kind of unsettling’https://trib.al/5rKl0kr
@nicksortor: The Pacific Palisades reservoir was EMPTY AND OFFLINE when the firestorm exploded, per LA Times. This is CRIMINAL. The reservoir holds 117 million gallons of water, and would’ve given firefighters ample pressure to effectively fight the blaze. Overpaid Dept. of Water and Power officials have now been forced to admit the reservoir being offline likely contributed to dry fire hydrants and low water pressure. DEI did this.
Biden repeats false explanation of dry hydrants (Utes cut power) after Newsom complains of ‘lies’ blaming him for LA fire catastrophehttps://trib.al/TFEblmJ
Team Trump has every right to investigate the LA fires AND where federal funding from The Big Guy’s largesse went. What are the odds that NO federal funds were misused or misappropriated?
@EmeraldRobinson: Did the liberal elites in Los Angeles complain when the Biden regime left the good people of Appalachia to die after Hurricane Helene? Did they raise a fuss? Did they demand that FEMA help those people? Asking for a friend.
@CollinRugg: Total damage from the Los Angeles fires is estimated to reach $150 Billion.AccuWeather has increased their estimate for the damage and economic loss, saying total damage is expected to be $135-$150 billion… More than 10,000 homes and other structures have been burned down. JP Morgan predicts insured losses of $20 billion and uninsured losses of over $100 billion. https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1878100846459617300
NY Post Editorial Board: Redacted Russiagate docs show the feds are STILL lying about Trump and their putsch attempt – The biggest thing the Bureau is still hiding: The “articulable factual basis” on which its 2017 probe of Trump’s alleged role as a Russian intelligence asset was legitimated. Yes, it’s been obvious for years that there was no factual basis for the probe…the redacted “articulable factual basis” of the 2017 probe is both non-factual and non-actionable… https://nypost.com/2025/01/11/opinion/redacted-russiagate-docs-show-the-feds-are-still-lying-about-trump-and-their-putsch-attempt/
@KanekoaTheGreat: Former Labour MP Ivor Caplin, who criticized Elon Musk on British TV last week for his remarks about Keir Starmer, has been arrested following a sting operation by citizen pedophile hunters. Caplin allegedly attempted to arrange a meeting with a 15-year-old boy. Just last week, he condemned @elonmusk ‘s tweets about Jess Philips and Keir Starmer, calling them “unacceptable”: @elonmusk: Now we know why Labour voted against an inquiry (rape gangs): they are guilty
The NYT reports Mark Zuckerberg has ordered Meta offices to remove tampons from men’s bathrooms. Sanity is returning; the cult of woke’s reign of terror is ending.
Zuckerberg Says Most Companies Need More ‘Masculine Energy’ “It’s good if a culture “celebrates the aggression a bit more.”… “You want women to be able to succeed and have companies that can unlock all the value from having great people no matter what their background or gender.”… https://www.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-slams-biden-administration-194515530.html
—
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING CRAIG HEMKE
a must view…
Vast Devaluation of Dollar Coming in 2025 – Craig Hemke
Financial writer, market analyst and precious metals expert Craig Hemke predicted at the beginning of 2024 that the US National Debt would tack on another $2 trillion to the $34 trillion that was already there. The federal debt now stands at $36.3 trillion. Hemke was correct, and now he’s back with his 2025 predictions. Let’s start with where interest rates, they have already gone up dramatically in the last year. Hemke says, “If the economy really is sliding into recession, and they can’t get the budget under control, because of the liquidity that is going to be needed to control interest rates, the fed will be talking openly about yield curve control.”
Isn’t “yield curve control” just another term for printing massive amounts of money to buy the debt? Hemke says, “Yes, exactly. The money has to come from somewhere, right? If they are buying government debt because that’s what they are doing. They are the buyer of last resort to keep those yields down. So, where’s the money coming from? They are the ones creating it. This is a vast devaluation of the currency (US dollar). This is money creation, dollar creation that gets flushed into the economy . . . . This is just like what happened after covid. It continues this inflation against the little guy, you and me and everybody else that has to take their dollars and go buy things. This is where it becomes an untenable situation.”
What other choice does the government have? Hemke says they can cut spending, but that too has its problems because liquidity dries up, tax collection dries up and the market crashes. Hemke says, “How would you like to die? Your choice is the electric chair or a firing squad. . . . If you cut the deficit spending of $2 trillion, then you would not have had $2 trillion in growth. . . . This is a very challenging situation. This is not simple as the financial networks would like you to believe.” So, the two choices the federal government has are to print money or cut spending.
What is Hemke telling people to do for protection? Hemke says, “When Nixon cut off the gold window in 1971, you could buy a 400-ounce gold bar for $11,000. Today, with gold at around $2,600 per ounce, that same 400-ounce bar would cost $1.1 million. . . . Global central banks, the Chinese, Russians, Poland, Turkey, India are taking their dollar reserves and buying gold. You and I have dollar reserves. We work, we spend and whatever is left over, we save. Those are our dollar reserves, and what we need to do is the same thing the central banks have been doing for the last three years. . . . You have a gold and silver seller as a sponsor. Have them send you some gold and silver because it is the best protection you can have in this madness.
(USAWatchdog.com lists this code for its viewers as a courtesy and gets no monetary compensation from TFMetalsReport.com.)
This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188. Melody’s specials for gold and silver coins fluctuate with the spot price of the markets.
harveyorganblog.com 
