GOLD CLOSED UP $9.40 TO $2669.55
SILVER CLOSED UP 15 CENTS TO $29.81
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2676.40
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.84
https://x.com/i/status/1877934034040356869
Bitcoin morning price:$96,317 UP 4244 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,541 up 4469 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $21.45 TO $940.70
Palladium price; DOWN 5.25 TO $943.10
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3842.60 UP 10.60 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,884.98 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//JAN 10 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2192.44 UP 8.76 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2202.84 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) JAN 10/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2,597.40 DOWN 6.20 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2628.05 EUROS PER OZ/JAN 10 //.2025)
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EXCHANGE
;EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,673.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/13/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 01/15/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 2
190 H BMO CAPITAL 40
323 C HSBC 9
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 206
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 79
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 15
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 103
661 C JP MORGAN 35 183
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 7
905 C ADM 40
TOTAL: 365 365
JPMorgan stopped 183/365
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JANUARY/2024. CONTRACT: 365 NOTICES FOR 36500 OZ 1.135 TONNES
total notices so far: 7814 contracts for 781,400 Oz (24.304 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY
SILVER NOTICES: 32 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 160,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1808 for 9.040 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $9.40 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.53 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.15 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 228,000 OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 460.218 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2001 CONTRACTS TO 150,040 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0,69 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS OF 1817 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON MONDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS AND TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE. THEY SUCCEEDED WITH //MONDAY PRICING WITH SOME LONGS BEING KNOCKED OFF. DERIVATIVE LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY BUT WE DID HAVE ANOTHER NEW MASSIVE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 1911 CONTRACTS WAS ANNOUNCED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS RED THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER RAID SHORTLY. WE HAD A SMALL 184 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS HUMONGOUS 1911 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 1817 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY’S COMEX SESSION
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: A HUMONGOUS 1911 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH LAST YESTERDAY’S RAID (JAN 13). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.69 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1830 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A 184 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 9.490 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 9.490 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS +// A SMALL 184 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1911 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED 13 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 DAYS, total 5454 contracts: OR 27.270 MILLION OZ (681 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 27.270 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 27.27 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2001 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 184 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 184 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 8.110 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JAN REMAINS AT 9.490 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE 1. A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1817 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS 1911 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. SOME NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON MONDAY WITH THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (1911) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, NO DOUBT PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION.
WE HAD 32 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 160,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5784 OI CONTRACTS TO 504,889 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW GETTING CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 2392 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (5784 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $27.75 IN PRICE MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 376 CONTRACTS OR 37,600 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD THE FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS TOTALLING 1700 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ (5.28775 TONNES) ISSUED JAN 6/2025 TO WHICH WE ADD JAN 8 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 150 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES . NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 28.2519 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) + 5.28775 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + .4665 EX FOR RISK JAN 8 = 34.0049 TONNES
/NEW STANDING 31.6193 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $27.75 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 8140 OI CONTRACTS (25.32 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2356 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 507,281
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8140 CONTRACTS WITH 5784 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2356 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8140 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED AND CRIMINAL 30,233 CONTRACTS ISSUED.(THIS IS THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUED BY THE CME.) WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY. MORE MONSTER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S IS NEEDED FOR REPLENISHMENT TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING (FUTURE RAIDS). WE WILL NO DOUBT SEE ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2356 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 8176 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8140 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 376 CONTRACTS OR 37600 OZ (1.1691 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK JAN 8 OF .4665 TONNES TOGETHER WITH OUR EARLIER EX FOR RISK OF 5.2867 TONNES//// NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO:
28.2519 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY +
5.753 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON OUR TWO OCCASIONS IN JANUARY (6TH AND 8TH )
EQUALS: 34.0049 TONNES
//NEW STANDING JAN: 34.0049 TONNES
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE MONDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE SUCCESS IN REMOVING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD A 1) $27.75 PRICE LOSS, BUT 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN OF 8140 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 30,233 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 32,739 CONTRACTS OF 3,273,900 OZ OR 101.83 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4092 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 101.83 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 101.83 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.86% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 101.83 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2001 CONTRACTS OI TO 150,040 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.20233EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 184 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 305 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2014 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 184 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1817 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS A HUGE 9.085 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $0.69 LOSS IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.77 PTS OR 0.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 190.15 PTS OR 1.00%
// Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.31%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3320 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3565// Oil DOWN TO 78,77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING AT LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKE
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 80.19 PTS OR 2.54%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.64 PTS OR 1.83%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 716.10 O 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.47%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3312 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3491// Oil DOWN TO 78,54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING A
STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5784 CONTRACTS TO 504,889 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $27.75 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE LOSDSD FOR GOLD AS WE HAD ALSO, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2356) . THE CME ISSUED ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8,140 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED TRADING AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK WITH OUR MAMMOTH PA.A.S IKSSUANCES. WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION AS WE HAD A MASSIVE INITIATION OF A PRICE RAID. WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS 30,233 T.A.S. ISSUANCE (TUESDAY MORNING).THIS IS THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE 30,000 PLUS ISSUANCE.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST FRIDAY’S 197 , 199, 2001, 202, 203 , 204 AND 205 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP IS COMING INTO OFFICE IN 6 TRADING DAYS. TRUMP WOULD PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FOUND OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THEN TODAY, IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD. AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING SESSION TODAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2356 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /FEB 2356 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2356 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 10,532 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2356 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5784 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $27.75 MONDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED SIZED 30,233 CONTRACTS, AS THE FED(FRBNY) CALLED FOR THE FED-MOBILE AS THESE WAS USED TO ORCHESTRATE A MASSIVE RAID BEFORE THE TRUMP-MOBILE TAKES OFFICE.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). THE FED WAS EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WAS EVIDENT IN JAN 6 COMEX TRADING//RAID AND THEN AGAIN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 30,233 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THIS IS THE FORTH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE. THIS T.A.S. ISSUANCE WILL BE USED IN OUR NEXT RAID IN GOLD TRADING NO DOUBT BEFORE TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE FED MUST REDUCE ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT OF 82 TONNES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING.
STANDING FOR GOLD FOR THE PAST 4 PLUS YEARS:
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (34.0049 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE JAN DELIVERY MONTH.
JANUARY: 10.1331 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 50 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
January 2025: 28.2519 TONNES + 5.753 EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 34.0049 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $27.75/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL. THUS WE HAVE ANOTHER MONSTER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. OF 30,233 CONTRACTS TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S RISE AND HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVIATIVE LOSSES.
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER TRADING AND NOW JANUARY!!
45 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 14.6836 TONNES. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS JANUARY MONTH
WE NOW BEGIN OUR NEW MONTH OF JANUARY AND LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR JANUARY: 5.7533 TONNES
TOTAL DELIVERIES JANUARY TRADING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 25.32 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (10.133TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 376 CONTRACTS OR 376000 OZ (1.1619 TONNES) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5.7533 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE WHERE THE BUYERS ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY.(ISSUED JAN 6/2025 AND JAN 8).. THIS IS ,OF COURSE, AGAINST ALL RULES OF THE COMEX AS IT IS MEANT TO DECEIVE US. IT IS TOTALLY INSANE FOR A BUYER TO ASSUME RISK OF DELIVERY.
NEW STANDING FOR JAN: 28.2519 TONNES + 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 34.0048 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH) A NORMAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR A JANUARY IN EARLIER TIMES HAS BEEN GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 TONNE OF GOLD. HOWEVER THESE PAST 4 YEARS QUEUE JUMPING HAS BEEN VERY PRONOUNCED AND THUS STANDING INCREASES DRAMATICALLY.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $27.75
WE HAD 2392 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8140 CONTRACTS OR 814,000 OZ (25.32 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 300,008 contracts: fair ////nobody wishes to play with the crooks
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
/ /// THE JAN 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
JAN 14
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | nil . nil |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | i)32,696.610 ASAHI 1017 kilobars ii) 96,453.000 oz (JPMorgan) 3000 kilobars total 129,149.610 oz (4 ,017 kilobars/4.017 tonnes) |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 365 notice(s) 36500 OZ 1.135 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1269 contracts 126,900 OZ 3.947 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 7814 notices 781,400 oz 24.304TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 2 customer deposits
i)32,696.610 ASAHI
1017 kilobars
ii) 96,453.000 oz (JPMorgan)
3000 kilobars
total 129,149.610 oz (4 ,017 kilobars/4.017 tonnes)
withdrawals: 0
adjustments:2/customer to dealer
i) Out of Brinks 115,743.600 oz (3600 kilobars)
ii) Out of JPMorgan 450,048,545 oz(13,998 kilobars)
total customer to dealer: 17.59 tonnes
thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JAN: we have an oi of 1634 contracts having GAINED 159 contracts. We had a strong 217 contract issuance on MONDAY. Thus ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP (GAIN) of 376 contracts on our two exchanges. (37600 oz or 1.1695 tonnes). THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
FEBRUARY LOST 15,591 CONTRACTS TO 288,197 AS IT BEGINS ITS COUNTDOWN BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE (JAN 31.2025)
MARCH HAD A GAIN OF 1317 CONTRACTS UP TO 4524
APRIL HAD A GAIN OF 18,725 CONTRACTS UP TO 143,079 CONTRACTS
We had 365 contracts filed for today representing 36,500 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 35 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 365 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 183 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JAN /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7814 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(1634 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (365 x 100 oz per contract) equals 908,300 OZ OR 27.082 TONNES. to which we add those criminal exchange for risk issuance of .4665 TONNES (JAN 8) AND 5.28775 tonnes/JAN 6//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 5.753 TONNES. THUS NEW STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX FOR JAN IS 28.2519 TONNES PLUS 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 34.0049 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month: No of notices filed so far (7814 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (1634 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (365 x 100 oz which equals 908,300 oz (28.2519 TONNES) + 5.753 tonnes ex for risk ( JAN 6 AND 8TH) = 34.0049 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.: 34.0049 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,137,828.584 oz 66.49 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 22,598,053.765 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,322,807.953 or 321.08 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 12,275,245.812 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,184,979 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 254.58 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.511 million oz
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 14. 2025
INITIAL
//2025// THE JAN 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 701,366.950 oz a) Out of Loomis; 701,366.950 oz total 701,366.950 oz . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | NIL |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | i) Into ASHAI 604,115.800 oz oz ii) Into Loomis: 2,997,695.350 oz iii) Into Delaware 155,267.670 oz total deposit 3,757,079.020 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 32 CONTRACT(S) (160,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 90 contracts (0.450 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1808 Contracts (9.040 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
deposits:3
i) Into ASHAI 604,115.800 oz oz
ii) Into Loomis: 2,997,695.350 oz
iii) Into Delaware 155,267.670 oz
total deposit 3,757,079.020 oz
WITHDRAWALS
701,366.950 oz
a) Out of Loomis; 701,366.950 oz
total 701,366.950 oz
total withdrawal: nil oz
ADJUSTMENT 2 dealer to customer
i) Ashai: 1,183,396.800 oz
ii) Malca: 991,669.125 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.536million oz/327.590million or 41.37%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.652 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 327.590 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN /2024 OI: 122 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 33 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD A 33 CONTRACT ISSUANCE ON MONDAY. THUS WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS, THAT IS WE HAD A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 32 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 980
MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 2980 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 115,372
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 32 for 160,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 61,773 good//
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1808x 5,000 oz = 9.040 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (122) and the number of notices served upon today (32)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN 2025 contract month: 1808 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN(122) minus number of notices served upon today (32)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JAN contract month equating to 9.490 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 9.270 million oz.
There are 71.652 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
JAN 14 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.53 TONNES
JAN 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES
JAN 10 WITH GOLD UP $17.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 9 WITH GOLD UP $13.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 8 WITH GOLD UP $5.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 2 WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 31 WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES
DEC 26 WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 24 WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES
DEC 20 WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES
DEC 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES
DEC 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 874.53 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.228 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.218 MILLION OZ
JAN 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.637 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.990 MILLION OZ
JAN 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ
DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ
DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ
DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ
DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ
DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 460.218 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
END
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
A brief history of the gold standard
In this article, I look at lessons from nineteenth century gold standards and the mistakes made. Mostly, they could have been easily avoided.
| Alasdair MacleodJan 14∙Paid |
A brief history of the gold standard
As evidence mounts that the major western economies are heading into a banking and monetary crisis due to contracting credit, we face the consequences of unsound money. The era of fiat is drawing to a close and its death will be painful for the highly indebted advanced economies in North America, Europe, and Japan. History and legal precedent tell us that fiat will die and gold will return to provide an anchor to credit system values.
As always, there are lessons to be learned from monetary history, particularly in the context of credit-dependent post-feudal economies, when a gold standard was expected to support mountains of credit in the forms of bank notes and commercial bank deposits.
In this article, I look at lessons from nineteenth century gold standards and the mistakes made. Mostly, they could have been easily avoided.
The debate over the return of gold backing for credit is becoming urgent, not just because the fiat currency system has run its course, but because it is increasingly in the developing world’s interests to embrace it.
Background
We know that from the dawn of monetary history, money is gold, silver, or copper and everything else is credit. And the relationship between money and credit was codified in a series of Roman law pronouncements dating back to Rome’s Twelve Tables in 449 BC. It was the successor nations of the Roman Empire, stretching from the Atlantic seaboard to the Urals which colonised the world, apart from China and Japan. But coincidentally with the Twelve Tables, it was the era of Confucius, who had died only thirty years before, and the flowering of Chinese philosophy which confirmed similar conclusions about money. But since the end of barter, there have been numerous attempts by rulers to fraudulently misrepresent or confiscate money, usually to finance wars or disguise their debts.
The transition from agricultural feudalism to industrialisation was facilitated by the expansion of credit, not money, though above-ground stocks of gold and silver available for coining did continue to accumulate. And with its expansion, banking systems evolved to deal in credit, creating it as demanded. Rudimentary banking dealing in credit had existed in Roman times, which is why jurors such as Ulpian, Paul, and Gaius in the early Christian era ruled on the differences between money and credit.
In his 1751 treatise Della Moneta [On Money], the Italian economist Ferdinando Galiani confirmed the origins of Italian banking which spread throughout Europe:
“Notably, the first banks were in the hands of private persons with whom people deposited money and from whom they received bills of credit and who were governed by the same rules as the public banks are now. And thus, the Italians have not only been the fathers, the masters, and the arbiters of commerce so that in all Europe they have been the depositories of money and are called bankers.”
Banking as we know it today was developed in England by London’s goldsmiths, who began to receive the gold and silver coin of the merchants in deposit. They not only agreed to repay it on demand, but to pay 6% interest per annum for the use of it. Consequently, in order to enable them to pay the interest promised it necessarily became their property to trade with as they wished. They were not the trustees of the money, but its proprietors. And it was not placed with them as a depositum to be restored in specie, but it became the goldsmiths’ property as a mutuum to be restored to the merchant on demand. This business flourished after the Restoration in 1660, and expanded significantly under William of Orange, following the Glorious Revolution when the Catholic James II was banished.
When the goldsmith bankers received this money in deposit, in exchange it was agreed that a credit or right of action be given in favour of the merchant for an equal amount of money to be restored to him on demand. It is this banker’s obligation to the depositor which in banking language today is termed a deposit.
As this business became mainstream, experience showed that if some of a banker’s customers demanded payment of their deposits or credits from day-to-day, others would probably pay in about an equal amount, so that at the end of the day they would not be much difference in his cash balance. In practice, it was found that ordinarily the bank’s balance in cash would seldom differ by more than 1/36th of total deposits from day-to-day. Therefore, if a banker retained 1/10th of his cash to meet any demands for payments that may be made, it would be ample cover for deposit outflows in ordinary conditions.
This allowed the banker to buy commercial and other bills in far larger quantities at a discount in return for a deposit credited in favour of the sellers. The sellers of these bills could draw upon their credits at the bank at will. By dealing in credit this way, the leverage the banker could apply to his own balance sheet was safely up to ten times on the assumptions above. And with the rate of discount on commercial bills typically 8% or more, the banker was able to pay 6% to depositors and retain a good profit.
Clearly, the value of a banker’s credit had to be expressed in money. That is to say, a deposit was expected to be encashable for specie. But with the evolution of the goldsmiths’ business and the mountains of credit created by their activities, the relationship between gold and silver on the one hand and legal obligations to pay on the other would also evolve.
The gold standard as our nineteenth century forbears knew it was basically a child of the British government and its bank in London, the Bank of England. The Bank itself opened for business on 1 August 1694 with a staff of nineteen. For most of the period between 1717 to 1931, Britain operated either a formal or de facto gold standard. The gold standard commenced after Sir Isaac Newton, as Master of the Mint, valued the gold guinea at 21 silver shillings, marking an important shift from sterling silver towards a gold standard. After a period of bimetallism, gold gradually became to be regarded as the measure of value in preference to silver. And in 1816, gold was declared to be the only legal measure of value in England and the pound became the equivalent in gold of 20 silver shillings.
By the 1816 Regulations of the Mint, forty pounds weight of standard gold bullion are cut into £1,869 in sovereigns, fixing the mint price of gold at £3/17/6d. In modern measures, a sovereign weighs 7.99 grammes with a gold content of 7.32 grammes.
In the United States, before the War of Independence English law prevailed and in the late 1700s Blackstone’s Commentaries was the standard legal treatise among Americans. Blackstone was clear on what constituted money:
“Money is the medium of commerce. It is the King’s prerogative as the arbiter of domestic commerce to give it all authority or make it current. Money is a universal medium or common standard by comparison with which the value of all merchandise may be ascertained: a sign which represents the respective values of all commodities…
“The coining of money is in all states the act of the sovereign power that its value may be known on inspection. And with respect to coinage in general there are three things to be considered therein: the materials, the impression, and the denomination. With respect to the materials Sir Edward Coke lays it down that the money of England must be either of gold or silver…”[i]
The framers of the Constitution adapted Blackstone to replace the King’s prerogative with the new Congress, giving the federal government the power to coin money. And that money could only be coined. To get around this restriction, which is every spendthrift politician’s desire, the government would have to have a tame commercial bank to produce gold substitutes in the form of bank notes. But even that course was controversial.
In 1790, Alexander Hamilton as the first secretary of the Treasury submitted a report to Congress in which he outlined his proposal to establish a government-owned bank, the Bank of the United States, using the charter of the Bank of England as the basis for his plan. It was passed and a 20-year charter was signed into law by President Washington the following February. As well as acting as the government’s fiscal agent and making loans to the government, it also operated as a commercial bank, issuing banknotes. In 1811, Hamilton was dead, the Republican Party had taken control from the Federalists, and the charter was not renewed.[ii]
Just five years after Hamilton’s proposal, the Bank of England began experiencing a significant drain on its bullion reserve, due to the government’s need for gold to finance the war with France and also to pay for imported grain after a succession of bad harvests. In 1797, the Bank suspended payments in cash (i.e. gold and silver coin). The suspension continued through the Napoleonic Wars, during which the Bank inflated its note issue causing the price of gold to rise against the Bank’s paper currency. In 1810, this led to the appointment of a Select Committee “to enquire into the high price of bullion”, which concluded that the depreciation of the currency was due to the excessive issue of bank notes. The following which is extracted from its report to Parliament is the most relevant passage:
“…there is at present an excess of paper in circulation in this Country, of which the most unequivocal symptom is the very high price of Bullion, and next to that, the low state of the Continental Exchanges; that this excess is to be ascribed to the want of a sufficient check and control in the issues of paper from the Bank of England; and originally, to the suspension of cash payments, which removed the natural and true control. For upon a general view of the subject, Your Committee are of opinion, that no safe, certain, and constantly adequate provision against an excess of paper currency, either occasional or permanent, can be found, except in the convertibility of all such paper into specie. Your Committee cannot, therefore, but see reason to regret, that the suspension of cash payments, which, in the most favourable light in which it can be viewed, was only a temporary measure, has been continued so long; and particularly, that by the manner in which the present continuing Act is framed, the character should have been given to it of a permanent war measure.
The Committee recommended to Parliament that placing numerical restrictions on the note issue would be impossible to judge and that in the absence of an exchange facility between notes and coin the only sure criterion was to be found in monitoring the price of bullion and the state of the foreign exchanges. It was a conclusion which has stood the test of time because ever since all attempts to manage the note issue and other forms of central bank credit to achieve price stability have failed.
Perhaps the implication that Parliament was unable to control monetary matters was unacceptable, because the Select Committee’s report was rejected. Consequently, being unrestrained the Bank of England was free to increase its note issue without restriction, reducing the gold value of the Bank’s paper pound even further.
In an inflationary free-for-all, bank notes were also being issued in increasing numbers by country banks outside London, in what would turn out to be a classic cycle of bank credit expansion. The consequence of the note expansion was rising prices: between 1808 and 1813, the general level of consumer prices is estimated to have risen 25%. Inevitably, a credit squeeze followed and between 1814—1816 half of the country banks failed in the subsequent slump, reducing the total volume of paper currency circulating substantially. The shortage of bank notes led to the value of the Bank’s notes increasing accordingly, proving that the Bullion Report was correct in its analysis: that it was impossible to judge what restrictions to put on the note issue, and the best solution was to be found in a firm relationship with specie.
Though Parliament had rejected the Bullion Report, it became the subject of much debate with the result that businessmen and traders were won over by the report. It also converted Robert Peel, who later became the first Prime Minister with a business background. Peel also became Chairman of the Bullion Committee in 1819, and he pushed through an Act initially introducing a gold bullion standard to be followed by a resumption in 1823 of the previous sovereign coin standard. But the Bank had accumulated enough gold to press for the Act to be amended so that they could resume coin payments in May 1821.
However, a run on the bank’s reserves began only three years later, taking the bullion reserves from £13 million in January 1824 down to a little over a million in December 1825. A credit crisis developed on the back of the note issue contracting, which was only arrested by the bank issuing yet more bank notes. At last, the directors of the Bank became convinced there was something in the Bullion Report after all, and from 1827 endeavoured to ensure its balance sheet assets were split two-thirds in favour of government debt and one-third in coin and bullion.
From time to time the Bank had great difficulty maintaining this position, and in 1839 was forced to obtain loans from Paris and Hamburg of £3,500,000 in gold to stave off bankruptcy. The ups and downs of the Bank acting as an issuer of bank notes and operating as a commercial bank led to a debate between two schools of thought: the currency and banking schools. From experience and some would claim self-interest, the banking school was against the rules-based approach of the currency school, preferring demand for bank credit to be left to the markets, echoing the conclusions of the Bullion Committee.
The currency school argued that the issuing of bank notes should be separated from banking activities. It was a rules-based approach imposed by law, based on David Ricardo’s analysis of 1824 from which the following extract is relevant:
“The Bank of England performs two operations of banking, which are quite distinct, and have no necessary connection with each other: it issues a paper currency as a substitute for metallic one; and it advances money in the way of a loan, to merchants and others. That these two operations of banking have no necessary connection, will appear obvious from this — that they might be carried on by two separate bodies, without the slightest loss of advantage, either to the country, or to the merchants who receive accommodation from such loans.”
Accordingly, under the Bank Charter Act of 1844, the Bank of England was split into two departments: the Issue Department and the Banking Department. The Directors were to transfer to the Issue Department £14,000,000 of securities (mostly government stock) and all gold coin and gold and silver bullion not required by the Banking Department for its immediate purposes. Under Orders in Council the level of securities was subsequently increased to £15,000,000 to compensate for the private banks who ceased to issue banknotes after the introduction of the Act. The increase in the Issuing department’s balance sheet allowed it to increase its note issue.
The framers of the 1844 Act assumed that if there was a contraction of the note issue due to notes being submitted for coin, the lower quantity of notes in circulation would support their value, so that the arrangement would always ensure that a potential run on the Issue Dept would be self-correcting. But crucially, a number of errors in the framing of the act transpired.
In effect, the Act attempted to set up the Issue Dept as a bank of deposit, issuing banknotes as tokens for bullion held on the asset side of its balance sheet. It was forbidden from dealing in credit. But by allowing the balance sheet to record assets of £15m in debt securities, this principle was abused, because those securities had to be bought by the issue of credit. Furthermore, it was apparent that there are irrecoverable costs in converting coin into notes and vice-versa. Presumably, the framers in the currency school thought that these could be offset by the income on securities.
The second error was more serious. The framers of the Act had assumed that only banknotes would be submitted to the Bank in exchange for coin. They had omitted to understand that cheques encashed in the Banking Department could equally be exchanged for coin or bullion, so that when there was a run on the Issue Dept it came from cheques being encashed, not notes presented for payment in gold. This refuted the hope that the submission of notes for bullion would support their value through scarcity. This error led to the temporary suspensions of the Act in 1847, 1857, and 1865.
An extension of the second error was a third. When there were a number of currencies on gold standards (which were always the case de facto or de jure), a run on the Issuing Department’s gold reserves would occur if the Bank kept its discount rate too low. To illustrate this point, in 1799 there was a banking crisis in Hamburg and the discount rate there rose to 15%, drawing bullion out of London.
To understand why this is so, be it understood that both principal and interest are payable in gold or gold substitutes. Therefore, irrespective of trade imbalances and other factors which might be ascribed to the risks relative between one centre and another, when the rate of discount between two places differs by more than the cost of transmitting bullion between them, bullion will flow from where the discount is lower to where it is higher.
The Act could have worked, despite the lack of the Issue Department not being a proper bank of deposit, if as well as the powers given to it by the Act it was also given the power to set the discount rate purely with the intention of maintaining the bullion reserve. On each of the three failures above, it was this power being in the hands of the Banking Department that led to runs on the Bank’s gold reserves and the suspensions of the Act in 1847, 1857, and 1866.
The underlying point is that you cannot have a note issuing function exchangeable for gold on demand as part of a wider banking business, as the Americans clearly understood when Congress did not renew the 20-year charter of the Bank of the United States in 1811.
Before 1834, the United States was on a bimetallic (gold and silver) standard, switching to gold in 1834 at a rate of $20.67 to the ounce, confirmed by the Gold Standard Act in 1900 and which continued at that rate until 1933 when by Executive Order President Roosevelt rescinded it for US citizens. That America’s gold standard stood for nearly a century without alteration or compromise through cycles of bank credit is proof that a central bank, even split into departments of issue and banking, is so conflicted in its objectives as to be incapable of securing monetary stability. It only was the establishment of the Fed in 1913 and its post-war meddling in credit markets, which led to the devaluation of the dollar.
The future of gold standards
We know from the long history of the division of labour that money and credit, however defined, have progressed the human condition following the restrictions of barter. And we also know that credit must take its value from a higher form of credit for which there is no counterparty risk. Both in practice, and in law for nearly 2,500 years that higher form of credit has been metallic money.
Therefore, the current situation whereby commercial bank credit takes its value from a government’s credit is an aberration. Indeed, every time the state has tried to take ultimate control over commercial credit, it has always failed. Our current monetary system, which has been in place since the suspension of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 is now showing signs of having run its course. There can be little doubt that however long its ending is resisted, the legal and historical precedents will reassert themselves eventually. Gold will then return as the ultimate backstop for all credit, and therefore the values of all commercial activities and wealth.
There is no doubt that the return to a gold standard will face fierce resistance from western governments, which have come to depend on the expansion of their credit to finance excess spending. As we saw when the British Parliament rejected the Bullion Report of 1810, the political class has a fundamental belief that money and credit is something that can be controlled, and any evidence to the contrary is disregarded. The failure of free market economics to gain intellectual traction against statist interests has many examples in history. Germany’s historical school adopted Georg Knapp’s 1905 State Theory of Money while dismissing the Viennese free market intellectuals as a bunch of (Austrian) country hicks.
So it was that despite the collapse of the European paper currencies in the wake of the First World War, the lessons that should have been learned from the detachment of state credit from specie were not. We can always prevent a monetary problem by managing it better, was the common statist cry. And when the roaring twenties, stoked by credit expansion under Benjamin Strong’s Fed ended with the Wall Street crisis in 1929—1932 causing the following depression, free market economics were blamed instead. It must never be allowed to happen again, the statists said. Economists had free markets and sound money educated out of them to be replaced by macroeconomics and statistical modelling.
The establishment is simply not equipped to face the challenges of returning to monetary stability. Its experts cannot even diagnose the problems in advance, only reacting to events with an overriding motive to preserve the status quo. All we can say is in the aftermath of Waterloo that Britain’s leadership of Liverpool, Castlemaine, Beresford, and Wellington were sound money men, understanding the importance of free markets, imbued with Adam Smith, and the importance of a gold standard, sadly absent in our leadership today.
Following Waterloo, they set in motion an economy which expanded in real terms on the basis of non-intervention, allowing the government’s debt to fall from 172% of estimated 1819 GDP to 21% in 1914. According to the Bank of England’s own research, this debt declined from a total of £893 million to £706 million between those dates. An additional benefit to government funding was the use of undated consolidated loan stock, which never had to be refinanced of redeemed.
This is the other essential policy behind sound money: government discipline over its own spending. In 1820, once war-time spending had ended government spending was just 13% of GDP, leaving businesses and individuals with 87% of their own money with which to go about their business. Today, government spending is far higher, even exceeding half their economies in some European nations. Unless these excesses are dramatically reduced, there is no chance of a gold standard lasting.
JOHN RUBINO
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Clint Siegner: Sound money would check government more than DOGE could
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-01-13 19:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Clint Siegner
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Monday, January 13, 2025
Many Americans are rooting for Donald Trump and his appointees to succeed in their herculean task of slowing or reversing government growth.
Along with the ad hoc working group dubbed the “Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE),” there is much discussion about how runaway big government might be stopped. But there hasn’t yet been talk about how to keep it that way.
Making sure future administrations and legislatures can’t undo or erode important reforms needs to be part of the plan.
Laws, unfortunately, aren’t enough. The Founders drafted the U.S. Constitution to put strict limits on the power and size of the federal government. They would be deeply saddened by how faithfully that document has been interpreted and followed.
While the Constitution gets most of the attention, it was not the only mechanism our Founders implemented to limit government. They gave us free and decentralized money and purposely avoided creating a central bank.
In reality, a true sound money system could be the most effective constraint on government growth and power. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
END
ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST MUST VIEW…YOUTUBE/KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT 205
/LIVE FROM THE VAULT 205
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY
END
end
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 80.19 PTS OR 2.54%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.64 PTS OR 1.83%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 716.10 O 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.47%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3312 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3491// Oil DOWN TO 78,54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING A
STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.3312
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3491
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 80.19 PTS OR 2.54%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 345.64 PTS OR 1.83%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 716.10 OR 1.83%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 109.49 EURO FALLS TO 1.0252 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.240 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.91…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6055 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.815 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.304
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.452
3j Gold at $2667.65 /Silver at: 29.72 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 54/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 103.25
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.91 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.240% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9164 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9399 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.790 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.979. DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.396 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.49…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9360 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.544 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.274 UP 2 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Jump, Dollar Slides On Report Trump Planning Gradual Tariff Ramp Up
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 07:41 AM
Global stocks and US futures jumped and the dollar slumped after a Bloomberg report that Trump’s incoming economic team is considering a gradual ramp-up in trade tariffs in a strategy that could avert a crippling spike in inflation and which JPM called “more scalpel than broad sword approach which the market seems to like.” With bond yields flat and USD weaker, as of 7:30am S&P futures are 0.3% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6%, and on track to snap a two-day run of losses, as all Mag7 names advanced in premarket trading, with Nvidia and Tesla up more than 2%. European bourses were green across the board, and Asian markets also bounced while emerging markets emerged from their worst start to a year since 2016. In short, until and unless Trump denies the Bloomberg report, it appears to be a broad-based rally today, into PPI and tomorrow’s CPI. Commodities are seeing some profit-taking today with Ags/Energy lower, but Metals still bid up. Today’s macro data focus includes NFIB Small Biz Optimism, PPI, Federal Budget Balance, and 2x Fedspeakers.
Similar to a WaPo report last week, Bloomberg News quoted “people familiar with the matter” as saying graduated tariff hikes of about 2% to 5% a month are under discussion, rather than aggressive one-time increases. “A slower and steadier tariff approach would perhaps remove a degree of upside inflation risk and a degree of downside growth risk, so everyone is getting cautiously optimistic again,” said Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown, who however correctly cautioned that Trump has previously dismissed any suggestions of a more moderate tariff strategy. “That’s perhaps why we are seeing some of the initial optimism fade a little bit,” he said.
The Bloomberg report knocked the dollar index lower after five straight days of gains, while global bond markets steadied after a sharp run-up in borrowing costs in recent days. However, an earlier drop in 10-year Treasury yields subsided, keeping borrowing costs near the October 2023 highs hit Monday after traders slashed bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
The latest word on tariffs comes at a time when markets are increasingly fearful of an inflation resurgence that prevents central banks, especially the Fed, from cutting rates as much as expected earlier. According to a majority (but not all) market participants, Trump’s policies, including mass deportations and higher trade levies, would lead to higher inflation. The flipside of course is that a trade war would lead to a global economic slowdown which would lead to rapid rate cuts, something which apparently nobody is considering. Inflation fears make this week’s US inflation data all the more crucial, especially if it signals the disinflation trajectory had already stalled at the end of last year. Producer inflation is due later Tuesday, followed by a CPI report on Wednesday, and December retail sales numbers that could confirm robust holiday-season spending.
Focus is also turning to the US corporate earnings season, with banks including Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan and Goldman reporting on Wednesday. Fourth-quarter earnings-per-share on the S&P 500 is expected to climb 7.3% from the year-earlier period, according to Bloomberg. Despite the solid growth, recent losses on the S&P 500 have wiped out its 2025 gains, with sentiment also hurt by the prospect of sweeping new limits on the sale of advanced AI chips by Nvidia.
“There’s been a swing back from the exuberance of the Trump election,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau Capital in Paris. “The market is hoping for the upcoming earnings season to provide some reassurance.”
According to multiple reports, Chinese officials weighing an option that involves Elon Musk acquiring the US operations of TikTok if the company fails to fend off a ban. In other news, Donald Trump and Joe Biden both said they are optimistic a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be agreed within days, pausing the devastating war in Gaza.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index gained 0.5%, led by auto, technology and bank stocks. French stocks outperformed, receiving an additional boost from the possibility of a political agreement that could prevent a government collapse. Among individual stocks, oil stock BP falls after the company flags broad weakness across its business. Ocado soars on a strong retail update and chocolatier Lindt gains on firm margins. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Ocado shares rise as much as 14% after its grocery arm reported an acceleration in sales growth during the final quarter of 2024
- Lindt shares gain as much as 5.7% after the Swiss chocolate maker posted robust sales growth and said it gained market share
- Persimmon shares rise as much as 7.4% after the UK housebuilder said it built more homes than anticipated in 2024, which will help its annual underlying profit before tax come in at the upper end of market expectations
- JD Sports shares slide as much as 13% after the sports retailer downgraded its full-year pretax profit guidance following a softer-than-expected fourth quarter trading update
- BP shares slide as much as 3.1% after the company reported weakness across the board in its 4Q business, and announced a delay in presenting its new strategy
- British American Tobacco shares slump as much as 2.9% after Reinet Investments SCA agreed to sell its 2% stake in the firm, exiting its long-running position in the company
- Remy Cointreau falls as much as 6.6%, the most since October, after Bank of America downgraded the French spirits maker to underperform on account of a “hard to justify” premium vs. peers
- Carlsberg, meanwhile, gains as much as 3.2% after the bank calls the stock “underappreciated”
- Hunting shares rise as much as 13%, after the energy services provider confirmed earnings should meet expectations in 2024, while its cashflow in the final quarter was stronger than forecast
- Temenos shares gain as much as 9.6% after the Swiss banking software company announced preliminary 4Q24 results with meaningful outperformance relative to company consensus
- European Mining stocks climbed to as iron ore surged back above the $100-a-ton threshold, following data showing that China’s annual imports of the steel-making ingredient reached a record and its trade surplus soared
- Games Workshop shares fall as much as 4.2% after strong results were accompanied by some cautious comments on potential US tariffs and cost inflation
Earlier, Asian markets rebounded with Chinese equities leading gains as news that US President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering taking a gradual approach to raising tariffs buoyed sentiment. The MSCI China Index snapped a six-day losing streak, climbing more than 2.7%, its best return in a month, as the nation’s top securities regulator said it will work on building a mechanism to stabilize the market. More broadly, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, with Tencent and Meituan among the top contributors to its advance. Equities in India also rebounded following a selloff in the previous session. Still, the Asian benchmark’s advance was held back by losses in Japanese chip-related companies after new US restrictions on semiconductor exports fueled caution toward the sector. Japanese shares closed at their lowest level since November 2024.
In rates, treasuries are steady ahead of US producer price data, with 10-year yields steady at 4.78% while 5s30s spread is steeper by ~1.3bp. Gilts gapped higher at the open before reversing gains with UK 10-year borrowing costs now unchanged at 4.88%. The French-German 10-year yield spread narrowed slightly after the Socialist party head said they may be nearing an agreement with the government. US session includes December PPI data, and another heavy slate of investment-grade corporate bond offerings is expected.
In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. The pound isn’t far behind with a 0.2% drop. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw choppy price action after Bloomberg report that Trump’s economic team is discussing a gradual approach to tariffs, increasing by 2%-5% per month, to boost negotiating leverage and avoid inflation
In commodities, WTI falls 0.7% to $78.30 as traders monitor the prospect of a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas. Spot gold is steady near $2,666/oz. Bitcoin rises above $96,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes December PPI (8:30am) and federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Schmid (10am) and Williams (3:05pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 5,908.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 511.03
- MXAP up 0.4% to 176.44
- MXAPJ up 1.3% to 556.62
- Nikkei down 1.8% to 38,474.30
- Topix down 1.2% to 2,682.58
- Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 19,219.78
- Shanghai Composite up 2.5% to 3,240.94
- Sensex up 0.2% to 76,463.88
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 8,231.00
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,497.40
- German 10Y yield up 1 bp at 2.62%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.0261
- Brent Futures little changed at $81.09/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,669.08
- US Dollar Index down 0.38% to 109.54
Top Overnight News
- US President-elect Trump’s team reportedly studies month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5% with Bessent, Hassett and Miran discussing gradual tariffs, although Trump still hasn’t reviewed or approved the gradual tariff idea: Bloomberg.
- Elon Musk’s social media empire may be about to expand. Chinese officials are weighing having X take control of TikTok US if the app is banned, people familiar said, though it’s unclear whether the parties have held any talks. BBG
- US President-elect Trump does not plan to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos but may make virtual remarks to the gathering, according to a source familiar with the planning cited by Reuters.
- Chinese banks’ new loans posted their first decline since 2011 last year, underscoring weak demand for financing. The PBOC reiterated its goal to keep the yuan stable — something that’s been worsening a liquidity squeeze. BBG
- Chinese refiners are rushing to buy oil from the Middle East and elsewhere in response to the latest round of sanctions against Russia’s energy industry. BBG
- Japan’s 40-year government bond yield reached the highest level since its debut as BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino signaled a rate hike may come next week. BBG
- European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn expects euro-zone interest rates to reach a level that no longer restricts economic activity by mid-2025. BBG
- Israel and Hamas are finalizing the terms of a cease-fire deal that could be announced as soon as Tuesday, Arab and Israeli officials said, raising hopes of an agreement that would at least pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip and free some of the hostages held there. WSJ
- Trump economic officials are discussing a proposal whereby tariffs would be “slowly ramped up” on a “month by month” basis (perhaps by 2-5%) in a manner aimed at increasing White House negotiating leverage while avoiding an inflation. BBG
- President-elect Donald Trump is likely to maintain new US limits on global sales of AI chips by Nvidia Corp. and others, a top Biden administration official said, citing bipartisan national security concerns surrounding China’s pursuit of advanced technology. BBG
- House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed to reporters Monday there’s “been some discussion” of tying California wildfire aid to a debt limit increase, after GOP members raised the issue with Donald Trump in several meetings at the President-elect’s Florida resort this weekend. Politico
- US President Biden administration has awarded a further USD 210mln in tech hub grants, according to the Commerce Department.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where price action was choppy as most indices attempted to nurse post-NFP losses although the Nasdaq remained pressured on tech weakness, while Japanese stocks were heavily pressured on return from the long weekend. ASX 200 gained with outperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the upside capped after weak consumer confidence data. Nikkei 225 slumped as it took its first opportunity to react to the post-NFP higher yield environment and last week’s source reports of the BoJ mulling a rate decision for its meeting next week, while comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino also suggested the upcoming meeting is live. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed despite the recent announcement by US and allies of new controls on AI chips, with participants awaiting the PBoC and FX regulator’s looming briefing on financial support for the economy, while there was also a report that the Trump team is studying gradual month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%.
Top Asian News
- India is likely to project nominal GDP growth of 10.3-10.5% in its budget for the next fiscal year, via Reuters citing sources; expects this fiscal year’s budget gap to come in 10-20bps lower than initially predicted 4.9% of GDP.
- China to cut pay of staff at the top three financial regulators by “about half”, including the PBoC; with effect this month, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US President-elect Trump is considering trade lawyer Jeffrey Kessler for a key China role heading the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.
- China is increasing its scrutiny of exports by Apple (APPL) and other US tech companies which is hampering their efforts to expand production in Southeast Asia and India as tighter customs checks related to dual-use technology export controls have resulted in delays of days and weeks on shipments of production equipment to Vietnam and India, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Nikkei.
- PBoC Deputy Governor says will adjust and improve policy force and its pace at proper time to support China’s FY economic and social development targets; to continue to take measures to keep CNY level basically stable at reasonable and balanced level. PBoC Deputy Governor says will adjust and improve policy force and its pace at proper time to support China’s FY economic and social development targets; to continue to take measures to keep CNY level basically stable at reasonable and balanced level.
- US lawmakers urged President Biden to extend January 19th deadline to prevent TikTok ban if Supreme Court does not block the law, while was separately reported that China discussed the sale of TikTok’s US operations to Elon Musk as a possible option, according to Bloomberg.
- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said in conducting monetary policy, it is necessary to pay close attention to short-term developments in economic activity, prices, and financial conditions and noted that inflation expectations have risen from below 1.0% to around 1.5%. Himino said they will likely hike rates if their economic forecasts are realised and while the direction is for further rate hikes, they must carefully watch various upside and downside risks at home and abroad. Furthermore, he said in guiding policy, determining the timing of policy change is difficult and important, as well as noted the board will likely debate whether to hike rates and make a decision at next week’s policy meeting. Furthermore, he stated it is not a normal state for real rates to stay negative for a prolonged period once shock and deflationary factors dissipate, while he added it is not possible to telegraph the monetary policy decision as the outcome of the policy meeting depends on discussions at the meeting.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the BoJ considering a rate hike and the government’s aim to exit deflation are not contradictory.
European bourses began the morning on a strong footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%, and continued to gradually edge higher as the morning progressed; indices generally reside just off session highs. Positivity today stems from Bloomberg reports that the Trump team is looking at gradual tariff hikes month-by-month of 2-5%. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a few industries residing in negative territory. Autos takes the top spot, closely followed by Technology; the pair benefiting from reports of a “gradual” Trump tariff hike. Retail is underperforming today, pressured by post-earning results from JD Sports, which cut FY25 guidance; although, Ocado’s update was much more positive, but unable to prop up the sector. Energy is also on the backfoot today. BP (BP/ LN) Q4 Trading Statement (USD): Q4 impairment 1.0-2.0bln; oil trading result is expected to be weak; now expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around 0.6bln (vs prev. view of 0.3-0.4bln) amid FX rates. Upstream production in Q4 is expected to be lower Q/Q, with production lower in oil production & operations and in gas & low carbon energy. UK CMA is to investigate Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google search services, to be completed within nine-months.
Top European News
- ECB’s Holzmann says hopes to meet 2% inflation target by year-end; do not think ECB can lower rates too quickly, core inflation is still closer to 3% than 2%.
- French PM Bayrou will deliver a crucial policy speech to lawmakers on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Speech due @ 14:00GMT. Click for Newsquawk analysis.
- France’s Socialist Party (PS) leader says they could be near an agreement with the Government, via BFM TV.
- Citi expects the BoE to deliver consecutive interest rate cuts from August 2025 (prev. forecast from May).
FX
- DXY has trimmed the softness seen overnight following a Bloomberg report that US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%; this is seen as less onerous than expected. It is worth noting that the article caveats that Trump is yet to review or approve the plan. DXY is currently contained within a 109.33-68 range. US PPI and speak from Fed’s Williams and Schmid due.
- EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD with incremental newsflow from the Eurozone on the light side aside from a slew of ECB commentary. ECB hawk Holzmann has been on the wires this morning stating that he does not think ECB can lower rates too quickly with core inflation still closer to 3% than 2%. EUR/USD has gained a firmer footing on a 1.02 handle with a current session peak at 1.0277.
- JPY has reversed yesterday’s gains vs. the USD as Japanese participants return to market. In terms of Japanese newsflow, BoJ Deputy Governor Himino stated they will likely hike rates if economic forecasts are realised and that while the direction is for further rate hikes, they must carefully watch various upside and downside risks at home and abroad. USD/JPY has broken above the top end of yesterday’s 156.90-157.96 range with a current session peak at 158.02.
- GBP slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR. Fresh incremental drivers for GBP at the start of the week have been lacking with markets instead opting to look ahead to tomorrow’s CPI metrics. Cable briefly made its way onto a 1.22 handle vs yesterday’s 1.21 base (lowest since November 2023).
- Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard in the wake of reporting by Bloomberg that US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%. AUD/USD has clambered further off yesterday’s multi year low at 0.6130 and has been as high as 0.6207.
- RBI Governor reportedly signals he’s open to a more flexible INR, according to Bloomberg.FixPBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1878 vs exp. 7.3161 (prev. 7.1885).
Fixed Income
- USTs were initially firmer, but now reside around the unchanged mark. The primary overnight update was reports that President-elect Trump’s team is discussing a gradual tariff approach that could be done on a month-by-month basis, a Bloomberg report which helped to lift the risk tone and provide yields with some respite. As it stands, USTs find themselves at the lower-end of a 107-11 to 107-18+ band with yields softened across the curve and the belly leading thus far, as such there is no overt flattening/steepening bias in play. US PPI and Fed speak from Williams and Schmid due.
- OATs are trading slightly better than Bunds having picked up on commentary from the PS leader to a 121.29 session high. The leader said they could be near an agreement. Ahead, French PM Bayrou will present a government statement in the National Assembly from 14:00GMT and then a debate will follow. More recently, the PM has reportedly told political leaders that he will not suspend, nor repeal President Macron’s pension reform law, according to Reuters sources; but did not spark a move in OATs.
- Bunds are modestly lower, and have been trading directionally in-fitting with USTs but perhaps losing out to France on domestic updates and Italy on the risk tone, with BTPs the current EGB outperformer and at highs of 117.80 with upside of c. 20 ticks on the session. A German Bobl auction had little impact on price action.
- Gilts are flat, and at the lower-end of an 89.36-89.72 band. Specifics for the UK light so far aside from a I/L auction, which garnered decent demand as the b/c topped 3.0x. As it stands, we await a speech from Chancellor Reeves which is expected this afternoon in the House of Commons (timing TBC, likely around 12:00GMT).
- UK sells GBP 1bln 1.25% 2054 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.06x & real yield 2.126%.
- Germany sells EUR 3.793bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.4% 2030 Bobl: b/c 2.5x, avg. yield 2.42% & retention 24.14%.
- Netherlands sells EUR 1.915bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln; average yield 2.953% (prev. 2.804%).
- Demand for new Greek 10-year bond exceeded EUR 31bln, new price guidance of mid-swaps +102bps, according to IFR.
Commodities
- Crude is choppy and taking a breather from the gains seen in the prior session. On the Hamas-Israel deal, there have been numerous reports suggesting that a Gaza ceasefire deal could be announced today; more recently, NBC reported that the agreement between Israel and Hamas is nearing completion – this sparked pressure in the oil complex. WTI slipped from USD 79.05/bbl to USD 78.70/bbl and Brent from USD 81.05/bbl to USD 80.80/bbl over the course of five-minutes.
- Since, reports out of Qatar and more recently via Hamas on the Gaza agreement progress has weighed on the complex further to lows of USD 78.08/bbl and USD 80.20/bbl respectively.
- Precious metals eke mild gains despite the firmer Dollar (albeit off highs). Optimism stems from reports that US President-elect Trump’s team is studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%. Spot gold trades in a current USD 2,664.35-2,675.36/oz range.
- Mixed trade across base metals despite the firmer Dollar, but copper remains somewhat stable near monthly highs with the broader market risk profile also positive.
- TVP Polish state broadcaster says a ship has been circling around the Baltic pipeline, citing foreign ministry sources.
- Japanese aluminium stocks at key ports stood at 323.6k/MT at end-Dec (285.5k/MT end-Nov), via Marubeni.
- Pressure is mounting for US oil services group SLB (SLB) to exit Russia operations, according to FT.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israeli Official says “we are in a critical period”, hope we can enter into closing period, but “we” are not there yet.
- Hamas says talks have reached the final steps, expresses hope that this round of negotiations ends in a clear and inclusive deal.
- Qatari Foreign ministry spokesperson says “we have reached the final stages of the [Gaza] agreement”; “still some details stuck, largely about implementation”, via Al Jazeera.
- NBC reports that the agreement between Israel and Hamas is nearing completion.
- “The Doha consultations [Israel-Hamas talks] will end today and the agreement will be announced unless there is any emergency that temporarily postpones it.”, sources told Al-Quds.
- Israel and Hamas work on finishing touches to the hostage deal, according to the WSJ.
- Sky News Arabia sources say a thousand Hamas prisoners arrested by the Israeli army after October 7 will be released. Israel will have the right to veto any name in the lists of prisoners wanted to be released by Hamas and the movement agreed to this.
- Israeli army announced sirens were activated in central Israel after a rocket launch from Yemen and Israeli media reported the suspension of flights from Ben Gurion Airport due to rocket fire from Yemen, while the Houthi group said it targeted Israel’s Ministry of Defence with a ballistic missile, according to Asharq News. In relevant news, an Al Jazeera correspondent reported more than 20 strikes in two hours on Gaza City and the central and southern Gaza Strip.
- Israel and Hamas are close to a possible hostage and ceasefire deal that will likely be announced on Monday night or Tuesday morning in which 33 hostages will be released during the first phase, with a staged withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza other than an undefined security perimeter. However, in terms of when the ceasefire deal would be signed and if it would be signed, there was still uncertainty if it was hours away, days away, or could still unravel, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- US President-elect Trump said they are getting very close to an Israeli hostage deal and could have a deal done by the end of the week, while it was also reported that Trump’s envoy conveyed to Israeli PM Netanyahu a strongly worded message from Trump calling on him to conclude a deal, according to Channel 14 citing an Israeli government official.
- US Secretary of State Blinken is to present a post-war plan for Gaza on Tuesday.
Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says the US is seeking to disable the TurkStream gas pipeline.
- Senior Ukrainian Official says they launched a “massive attack” which hit multiple targets in the Engels, Saratov, Kazan, Bryansk and Tula regions of Russia.
- Russia’s Kremlin says there is ‘nothing new’ regarding President-Elect Trump’s statement about meeting Russian President Putin
- Russia downed more than 200 Ukrainian drones overnight, according to Shot Telegram channel. It was also reported that an industrial enterprise was damaged in the Russian city of Engels after a drone attack.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korea fired an unknown projectile towards the East Sea, while the South Korean military later announced that North Korea fired multiple short-range missiles off its east coast. Furthermore, South Korean acting President Choi said North Korea’s missile launch is a violation of UN Security Council Resolutions and they will sternly respond to North Korean provocations.
- Philippines National Security Council spokesperson said they were surprised about the increasing aggression being shown by China in deploying a ‘monster ship’ in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and that it is an alarming and clear effort on the part of China to intimidate Filipino fishermen. The spokesperson added that the intention of the Chinese government is to normalise presence in South China Sea waters with the presence of the ‘monster ship’ and they will not stop challenging Chinese presence in Philippine waters.
US Event calendar
- 08:30: Dec. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- Dec. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.0%
- Dec. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 3.4%
- Dec. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- 14:00: Dec. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$80b, prior -$366.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The global bond selloff and tariff policies of the incoming Trump administration have again been the key market themes over the last 24 hours. Yields reached new highs yesterday, with 10yr Treasury yields up another +2.0bps to 4.78%, their highest since October 2023, while here in the UK 30yr yields again reached post-1998 highs. The market focus shifted towards trade yesterday evening, with a Bloomberg report suggesting that Trump’s economic team were discussing a “gradual approach” to tariff increases. This is driving a risk-on mood overnight even if you could read the story as being hawkish (see below). Before the story broke, US equities had already managed to shrug off the pressure from rates as the S&P 500 closed +0.16% higher, reversing a near -1% initial decline that saw the index trade below its pre-election day levels intra-day.
Starting with the tariff story, Bloomberg reported that Trump’s team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month to boost negotiating leverage. An increase in tariffs by 2% to 5% per month using authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is one reported option, with the plans still in the early stage. A lasting rise in tariffs at such a pace would be hardly trivial and the IEEPA route can arguably be used more quickly than the trade instruments used during Trump’s first term, so it is not obvious that this scenario would be all that sanguine. However the market has latched on the gradual and incremental element rather than the potential build up of tariffs and the potential end game. The dollar index has moved -0.35% lower overnight, while S&P and NASDAQ equity futures are trading +0.25% and +0.40% higher. Chinese equities are strongly outperforming overnight.
Treasury yields are trading around -1.8bps lower in Asia this morning, after a similar modest decline in the final 20 minutes of the US session yesterday as Bloomberg’s tariff story came out. But prior to this, bonds had lost yet more ground, which was in part an ongoing reaction to Friday’s US jobs report, but also reflected new concerns about persistent inflation. One driver was a fresh rise in oil prices as markets continued to digest Friday’s new sanctions against Russian oil, with Brent crude (+1.57% to $81.01/bbl) closing at its highest since August. Another was the NY Fed consumer survey, which saw median 3yr inflation expectations rise from 2.6% to 3.0%. So it felt like the newsflow was all moving in the same inflationary direction, which helped push 10yr breakevens up +2.1bps to 2.47%, their highest since October 2023. At the same time, long end real yields inched up, and the 30yr real yield (+0.3bps) hit a post-2008 high yesterday of 2.59%, so we’re in territory we haven’t seen for a very long time now.
The bond market mini-meltdown and inflation concerns have magnified the focus on tomorrow’s CPI report, as another upside surprise would further cement doubts that the Fed will be cutting rates anytime soon. We’ll start to get a better idea about the inflation picture today, as the PPI report is coming out a day before the CPI numbers this month. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for headline PPI to come in at +0.4% in December, the same pace as in November. But the main focus will be on several components that feed into the PCE measure of inflation that the Fed officially target, which are health care services, airfares and portfolio management. So those will be the categories in focus when it comes to how the Fed might be thinking about future rate cuts.
Even though US Treasuries have been the primary focus given their importance as a global benchmark, the UK has seen some of the most severe losses, and yesterday saw those continue across multiple asset classes. In particular, the 10yr gilt yield (+4.7bps) was up to another post-2008 high of 4.88%, and the 30yr yield (+3.1bps) was at a post-1998 high of 5.43%. In both cases, that’s the 6th consecutive day they’ve moved higher, and the rise in yields means the government is at increasing risk of breaching its fiscal rules without fresh tax rises or spending cuts. There wasn’t much respite for the pound sterling either, which was down another -0.27% against the US Dollar to $1.2174. And it’s clear that investors remain bearish in the near term, as one-week risk reversals for sterling against the dollar show that sentiment hasn’t been this bearish since November 2022, in the aftermath of Liz Truss’ premiership. The next focal point will be the UK CPI report tomorrow morning.
The rest of Europe had a similar experience, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.9bps), OATs (+3.1bps) and BTPs (+5.4bps) all moving to their highest levels in months. And the euro continued to lose ground yesterday, weakening -0.25% to $1.0218, its lowest level since November 2022. Sentiment wasn’t helped by a fresh rise in natural gas futures yesterday, which ticked back up by +6.72%, reversing the bulk of last week’s decline. In part, that was a reaction to the latest US sanctions on Russia, but the moves also come amidst cold winter temperatures, and European gas storage is currently at a 3-year low for this time of year.
Turning to equities, and as discussed at the top, the S&P 500 (+0.16%) recovered into the close after being weak most of the session. The recovery came thanks to a broad-based advance that saw three quarters of the S&P constituents move higher on the day, with energy (+2.25%), materials (+2.22%) and banks (+1.31%) leading the way. This outweighed losses for the Magnificent 7 (-0.40%), which lost ground for a 4th consecutive session, led by a -1.97% decline for Nvidia after the White House announced new restrictions on exports of AI chips. So some reversal of the trend we’d seen since the US election that has seen the Mag-7 up +13.44% post the vote, while the equal weighted S&P (-2.22%) and the Russell 2000 (-2.94%) are both lower.
Despite yesterday’s turnaround, the major US equity indices all remain down YTD, including the S&P 500 (-0.77%), NASDAQ (-1.15%) and Russell 2000 (-1.60%). To be fair though, several recent years have been considerably worse than 2025 so far. For instance in 2022, the S&P 500 was already down -2.25% by January 13th, and in 2016 it was down by a sizeable -7.52%. So it’s not a particularly big loss by the standards of the last decade. Recent Januarys have tended to be weaker than the long-term seasonal norms without having as much influence on full year returns as the January effect has done in the past. Indeed, over the last two decades the S&P 500 has lost ground in 10 out of 20 Januarys, more than any other month.
By contrast, in Europe the STOXX 600 (-0.55%) lost ground yesterday, closing before the late US rally, but it remains in positive territory for 2025 still, with a +0.21% YTD performance.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher with the CSI (+2.15%) and the Shanghai Composite (+2.05%) marching ahead followed by the Hang Seng (+1.76%). The KOSPI (+0.38%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.48%) are also seeing gains. On the other side of the ledger, the Nikkei (-1.86%) is sliding after returning from a holiday.
In central banks news, BOJ’s Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino signalled the possibility of an interest rate hike next week. He stated that the board will be debating whether to raise interest rates while adding that there are risks both at home and abroad that require attention. Meanwhile, the global government bond sell-off has spread to Japan after their day off yesterday with yields on the 40yr JGB’s hitting 2.755%, its highest level since its inception in 2007 while the 20yr yield touched its highest level since May 2011. The 10yr JGB yield is +5.1bps higher trading at 1.24%, also its highest since May 2011.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include PPI inflation for December, along with the NFIB’s small business optimism index for December. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s Italy’s industrial production for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane and Holzmann, the Fed’s Schmid and Williams, and the BoE’s Breeden.
2B) EUROPEAN REPORT
Crude under pressure as a Gaza ceasefire nears & stocks grind higher on “gradual” Trump tariff reports – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 05:53 AM
- Stocks grind higher as sentiment is lifted on reports that the Trump team is looking at gradual tariff hikes month-by-month of 2-5%.
- DXY is a touch higher, antipodeans lead, JPY gives back Monday’s gains.
- Fixed Income is off best levels ahead of US PPI.
- Crude under increasing pressure as a Gaza ceasefire looms; based metals mixed, but precious metals eke mild gains.
- Looking ahead, US PPI, EIA STEO, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speakers including Fed’s Schmid & Williams.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses began the morning on a strong footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%, and continued to gradually edge higher as the morning progressed; indices generally reside just off session highs. Positivity today stems from Bloomberg reports that the Trump team is looking at gradual tariff hikes month-by-month of 2-5%.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a few industries residing in negative territory. Autos takes the top spot, closely followed by Technology; the pair benefiting from reports of a “gradual” Trump tariff hike. Retail is underperforming today, pressured by post-earning results from JD Sports, which cut FY25 guidance; although, Ocado’s update was much more positive, but unable to prop up the sector. Energy is also on the backfoot today.
- US equity futures are entirely in the green, with modest outperformance in the NQ (+0.7%), after underperforming in the prior trading day.
- BP (BP/ LN) Q4 Trading Statement (USD): Q4 impairment 1.0-2.0bln; oil trading result is expected to be weak; now expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around 0.6bln (vs prev. view of 0.3-0.4bln) amid FX rates. Upstream production in Q4 is expected to be lower Q/Q, with production lower in oil production & operations and in gas & low carbon energy.
- UK CMA is to investigate Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google search services, to be completed within nine-months.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY has trimmed the softness seen overnight following a Bloomberg report that US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%; this is seen as less onerous than expected. It is worth noting that the article caveats that Trump is yet to review or approve the plan. DXY is currently contained within a 109.33-68 range. US PPI and speak from Fed’s Williams and Schmid due.
- EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD with incremental newsflow from the Eurozone on the light side aside from a slew of ECB commentary. ECB hawk Holzmann has been on the wires this morning stating that he does not think ECB can lower rates too quickly with core inflation still closer to 3% than 2%. EUR/USD has gained a firmer footing on a 1.02 handle with a current session peak at 1.0277.
- JPY has reversed yesterday’s gains vs. the USD as Japanese participants return to market. In terms of Japanese newsflow, BoJ Deputy Governor Himino stated they will likely hike rates if economic forecasts are realised and that while the direction is for further rate hikes, they must carefully watch various upside and downside risks at home and abroad. USD/JPY has broken above the top end of yesterday’s 156.90-157.96 range with a current session peak at 158.02.
- GBP slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR. Fresh incremental drivers for GBP at the start of the week have been lacking with markets instead opting to look ahead to tomorrow’s CPI metrics. Cable briefly made its way onto a 1.22 handle vs yesterday’s 1.21 base (lowest since November 2023).
- Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard in the wake of reporting by Bloomberg that US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%. AUD/USD has clambered further off yesterday’s multi year low at 0.6130 and has been as high as 0.6207.
- RBI Governor reportedly signals he’s open to a more flexible INR, according to Bloomberg.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1878 vs exp. 7.3161 (prev. 7.1885).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs were initially firmer, but now reside around the unchanged mark. The primary overnight update was reports that President-elect Trump’s team is discussing a gradual tariff approach that could be done on a month-by-month basis, a Bloomberg report which helped to lift the risk tone and provide yields with some respite. As it stands, USTs find themselves at the lower-end of a 107-11 to 107-18+ band with yields softened across the curve and the belly leading thus far, as such there is no overt flattening/steepening bias in play. US PPI and Fed speak from Williams and Schmid due.
- OATs are trading slightly better than Bunds having picked up on commentary from the PS leader to a 121.29 session high. The leader said they could be near an agreement. Ahead, French PM Bayrou will present a government statement in the National Assembly from 14:00GMT and then a debate will follow. More recently, the PM has reportedly told political leaders that he will not suspend, nor repeal President Macron’s pension reform law, according to Reuters sources; but did not spark a move in OATs.
- Bunds are modestly lower, and have been trading directionally in-fitting with USTs but perhaps losing out to France on domestic updates and Italy on the risk tone, with BTPs the current EGB outperformer and at highs of 117.80 with upside of c. 20 ticks on the session. A German Bobl auction had little impact on price action.
- Gilts are flat, and at the lower-end of an 89.36-89.72 band. Specifics for the UK light so far aside from a I/L auction, which garnered decent demand as the b/c topped 3.0x. As it stands, we await a speech from Chancellor Reeves which is expected this afternoon in the House of Commons (timing TBC, likely around 12:00GMT).
- UK sells GBP 1bln 1.25% 2054 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.06x & real yield 2.126%.
- Germany sells EUR 3.793bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.4% 2030 Bobl: b/c 2.5x, avg. yield 2.42% & retention 24.14%.
- Netherlands sells EUR 1.915bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln; average yield 2.953% (prev. 2.804%).
- Demand for new Greek 10-year bond exceeded EUR 31bln, new price guidance of mid-swaps +102bps, according to IFR.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude is choppy and taking a breather from the gains seen in the prior session. On the Hamas-Israel deal, there have been numerous reports suggesting that a Gaza ceasefire deal could be announced today; more recently, NBC reported that the agreement between Israel and Hamas is nearing completion – this sparked pressure in the oil complex. WTI slipped from USD 79.05/bbl to USD 78.70/bbl and Brent from USD 81.05/bbl to USD 80.80/bbl over the course of five-minutes.
- Since, reports out of Qatar and more recently via Hamas on the Gaza agreement progress has weighed on the complex further to lows of USD 78.08/bbl and USD 80.20/bbl respectively.
- Precious metals eke mild gains despite the firmer Dollar (albeit off highs). Optimism stems from reports that US President-elect Trump’s team is studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%. Spot gold trades in a current USD 2,664.35-2,675.36/oz range.
- Mixed trade across base metals despite the firmer Dollar, but copper remains somewhat stable near monthly highs with the broader market risk profile also positive.
- TVP Polish state broadcaster says a ship has been circling around the Baltic pipeline, citing foreign ministry sources.
- Japanese aluminium stocks at key ports stood at 323.6k/MT at end-Dec (285.5k/MT end-Nov), via Marubeni.
- Pressure is mounting for US oil services group SLB (SLB) to exit Russia operations, according to FT.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- Italian Industrial Output YY WDA (Nov) -1.5% (Prev. -3.6%, Rev. -3.5%); Industrial Output MM SA (Nov) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.1%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Holzmann says hopes to meet 2% inflation target by year-end; do not think ECB can lower rates too quickly, core inflation is still closer to 3% than 2%.
- French PM Bayrou will deliver a crucial policy speech to lawmakers on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Speech due @ 14:00GMT. Click for Newsquawk analysis.
- France’s Socialist Party (PS) leader says they could be near an agreement with the Government, via BFM TV.
- Citi expects the BoE to deliver consecutive interest rate cuts from August 2025 (prev. forecast from May).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump’s team reportedly studies month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5% with Bessent, Hassett and Miran discussing gradual tariffs, although Trump still hasn’t reviewed or approved the gradual tariff idea, according to Bloomberg.
- US President-elect Trump does not plan to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos but may make virtual remarks to the gathering, according to a source familiar with the planning cited by Reuters.
- US President Biden administration has awarded a further USD 210mln in tech hub grants, according to the Commerce Department.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli Official says “we are in a critical period”, hope we can enter into closing period, but “we” are not there yet.
- Hamas says talks have reached the final steps, expresses hope that this round of negotiations ends in a clear and inclusive deal.
- Qatari Foreign ministry spokesperson says “we have reached the final stages of the [Gaza] agreement”; “still some details stuck, largely about implementation”, via Al Jazeera.
- NBC reports that the agreement between Israel and Hamas is nearing completion.
- “The Doha consultations [Israel-Hamas talks] will end today and the agreement will be announced unless there is any emergency that temporarily postpones it.”, sources told Al-Quds.
- Israel and Hamas work on finishing touches to the hostage deal, according to the WSJ.
- Sky News Arabia sources say a thousand Hamas prisoners arrested by the Israeli army after October 7 will be released. Israel will have the right to veto any name in the lists of prisoners wanted to be released by Hamas and the movement agreed to this.
- Israeli army announced sirens were activated in central Israel after a rocket launch from Yemen and Israeli media reported the suspension of flights from Ben Gurion Airport due to rocket fire from Yemen, while the Houthi group said it targeted Israel’s Ministry of Defence with a ballistic missile, according to Asharq News. In relevant news, an Al Jazeera correspondent reported more than 20 strikes in two hours on Gaza City and the central and southern Gaza Strip.
- Israel and Hamas are close to a possible hostage and ceasefire deal that will likely be announced on Monday night or Tuesday morning in which 33 hostages will be released during the first phase, with a staged withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza other than an undefined security perimeter. However, in terms of when the ceasefire deal would be signed and if it would be signed, there was still uncertainty if it was hours away, days away, or could still unravel, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- US President-elect Trump said they are getting very close to an Israeli hostage deal and could have a deal done by the end of the week, while it was also reported that Trump’s envoy conveyed to Israeli PM Netanyahu a strongly worded message from Trump calling on him to conclude a deal, according to Channel 14 citing an Israeli government official.
- US Secretary of State Blinken is to present a post-war plan for Gaza on Tuesday.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says the US is seeking to disable the TurkStream gas pipeline.
- Senior Ukrainian Official says they launched a “massive attack” which hit multiple targets in the Engels, Saratov, Kazan, Bryansk and Tula regions of Russia.
- Russia’s Kremlin says there is ‘nothing new’ regarding President-Elect Trump’s statement about meeting Russian President Putin
- Russia downed more than 200 Ukrainian drones overnight, according to Shot Telegram channel. It was also reported that an industrial enterprise was damaged in the Russian city of Engels after a drone attack.
OTHER
- North Korea fired an unknown projectile towards the East Sea, while the South Korean military later announced that North Korea fired multiple short-range missiles off its east coast. Furthermore, South Korean acting President Choi said North Korea’s missile launch is a violation of UN Security Council Resolutions and they will sternly respond to North Korean provocations.
- Philippines National Security Council spokesperson said they were surprised about the increasing aggression being shown by China in deploying a ‘monster ship’ in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and that it is an alarming and clear effort on the part of China to intimidate Filipino fishermen. The spokesperson added that the intention of the Chinese government is to normalise presence in South China Sea waters with the presence of the ‘monster ship’ and they will not stop challenging Chinese presence in Philippine waters.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on a firmer footing and back above USD 96k with Ethereum also stronger and just above USD 3.2k
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where price action was choppy as most indices attempted to nurse post-NFP losses although the Nasdaq remained pressured on tech weakness, while Japanese stocks were heavily pressured on return from the long weekend.
- ASX 200 gained with outperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the upside capped after weak consumer confidence data.
- Nikkei 225 slumped as it took its first opportunity to react to the post-NFP higher yield environment and last week’s source reports of the BoJ mulling a rate decision for its meeting next week, while comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino also suggested the upcoming meeting is live.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed despite the recent announcement by US and allies of new controls on AI chips, with participants awaiting the PBoC and FX regulator’s looming briefing on financial support for the economy, while there was also a report that the Trump team is studying gradual month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- India is likely to project nominal GDP growth of 10.3-10.5% in its budget for the next fiscal year, via Reuters citing sources; expects this fiscal year’s budget gap to come in 10-20bps lower than initially predicted 4.9% of GDP.
- China to cut pay of staff at the top three financial regulators by “about half”, including the PBoC; with effect this month, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US President-elect Trump is considering trade lawyer Jeffrey Kessler for a key China role heading the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.
- China is increasing its scrutiny of exports by Apple (APPL) and other US tech companies which is hampering their efforts to expand production in Southeast Asia and India as tighter customs checks related to dual-use technology export controls have resulted in delays of days and weeks on shipments of production equipment to Vietnam and India, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Nikkei.
- PBoC Deputy Governor says will adjust and improve policy force and its pace at proper time to support China’s FY economic and social development targets; to continue to take measures to keep CNY level basically stable at reasonable and balanced level. PBoC Deputy Governor says will adjust and improve policy force and its pace at proper time to support China’s FY economic and social development targets; to continue to take measures to keep CNY level basically stable at reasonable and balanced level.
- US lawmakers urged President Biden to extend January 19th deadline to prevent TikTok ban if Supreme Court does not block the law, while was separately reported that China discussed the sale of TikTok’s US operations to Elon Musk as a possible option, according to Bloomberg.
- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said in conducting monetary policy, it is necessary to pay close attention to short-term developments in economic activity, prices, and financial conditions and noted that inflation expectations have risen from below 1.0% to around 1.5%. Himino said they will likely hike rates if their economic forecasts are realised and while the direction is for further rate hikes, they must carefully watch various upside and downside risks at home and abroad. Furthermore, he said in guiding policy, determining the timing of policy change is difficult and important, as well as noted the board will likely debate whether to hike rates and make a decision at next week’s policy meeting. Furthermore, he stated it is not a normal state for real rates to stay negative for a prolonged period once shock and deflationary factors dissipate, while he added it is not possible to telegraph the monetary policy decision as the outcome of the policy meeting depends on discussions at the meeting.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the BoJ considering a rate hike and the government’s aim to exit deflation are not contradictory.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) 92.1 (Prev. 92.8); MM (Jan) -0.7% (Prev. -2.0%)
- New Zealand NZIER Confidence (Q4) 16.0% (Prev. -1.0%); QSBO Capacity (Q4) 91.3% (Prev. 89.1%)
- Indian WPI Inflation YY (Dec) 2.37% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 1.89%)
- China Yuan Lending (end-Dec): 7.6% Y/Y vs exp. 7.6%
2C ASIAN REPORT
Japan pressured on its return, further US tariff reports, US PPI ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 01:23 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside; Japanese stocks heavily pressured on return from the long weekend.
- US President-elect Trump’s team reportedly studies month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%, according to Bloomberg.
- European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.8% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.5% on Monday.
- DXY is higher but back on a 109 handle, NZD marginally outperforms, JPY narrowly lags.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, EIA STEO, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, ECB’s Lane, BoE’s Breeden & Taylor, Fed’s Schmid & Williams, Supply from Netherlands, UK & Germany.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mixed on Monday with SPX, DJI and RUT paring some of the post-NFP downside, although the Nasdaq added to losses amid tech, particularly in semiconductors which are being weighed on by Biden export controls and also a report in The Information that some of Nvidia’s (NVDA) biggest customers are facing new delays in getting its most advanced AI chips up and running in data centres. Conversely, the Dow was the clear outperformer due to the upside in heavyweight UnitedHealth (UNH), which rallied after the US proposed a 4.3% avg. increase in Medicare Advantage plan payments for 2026.
- SPX +0.16% at 5,836, NDX -0.30% at 20,785, DJI +0.86% at 42,297, RUT +0.24% at 2,194.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump’s team reportedly studies month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5% with Bessent, Hassett and Miran discussing gradual tariffs, although Trump still hasn’t reviewed or approved the gradual tariff idea, according to Bloomberg.
- US President-elect Trump does not plan to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos but may make virtual remarks to the gathering, according to a source familiar with the planning cited by Reuters.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where price action was choppy as most indices attempted to nurse post-NFP losses although the Nasdaq remained pressured on tech weakness, while Japanese stocks were heavily pressured on return from the long weekend.
- ASX 200 gained with outperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the upside capped after weak consumer confidence data.
- Nikkei 225 slumped as it took its first opportunity to react to the post-NFP higher yield environment and last week’s source reports of the BoJ mulling a rate decision for its meeting next week, while comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino also suggested the upcoming meeting is live.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed despite the recent announcement by US and allies of new controls on AI chips, with participants awaiting the PBoC and FX regulator’s looming briefing on financial support for the economy, while there was also a report that the Trump team is studying gradual month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%.
- US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.5%) remained afloat and marginally extended on yesterday’s rebound.
- European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.5% on Monday.
FX
- DXY initially gave up some ground to its major peers after reports that US President-elect Trump’s team is studying month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5% although that Trump still hadn’t reviewed or approved the gradual tariff idea. Nonetheless, the DXY then ultimately resumed its recent strengthening trend despite the lack of fresh US specific catalysts with participants awaiting the latest US CPI data on Wednesday.
- EUR/USD briefly found support following the report regarding potential US piecemeal tariff increases but then returned to flat territory.
- GBP/USD traded indecisively on both sides of the 1.2200 level with some key data releases scheduled this week including UK CPI and monthly GDP.
- USD/JPY saw a brief bout of volatility as participants digested a deluge of comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino who stated they will likely hike rates if economic forecasts are realised and that while the direction is for further rate hikes, they must carefully watch various upside and downside risks at home and abroad. Furthermore, he stated that the board will likely debate whether to hike rates and make a decision at next week’s meeting but added it is not possible to telegraph the monetary policy decision as the outcome of the policy meeting depends on discussions at the meeting.
- Antipodeans were underpinned alongside early strength in CNH after the reports of potential gradual US tariff hikes although most of the moves were pared with AUD also not helped by a deterioration in Australian Consumer Sentiment, while NZD remained firm
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1878 vs exp. 7.3161 (prev. 7.1885).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained afloat but lacked firm direction after yesterday’s indecision amid quiet trade ahead of the US inflation data midweek.
- Bund futures languished beneath the 131.00 level with attempts to nurse recent losses restricted ahead of German supply.
- 10yr JGB futures were pressured on reopen from the long weekend and as yields climbed ahead of next week’s live BoJ meeting including the 40yr JGB yield which rose to a record high, while prices failed to benefit from a 5-year JGB auction which resulted in a lower than previous bid-to-cover but higher accepted prices.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures took a breather after gaining yesterday on the recent tougher US sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector and with further upside capped amid positive Middle East headlines with Israel and Hamas said to be close to a possible hostage and ceasefire deal.
- EU intends to let its gas price cap expire as scheduled at the end of this month, according to Reuters citing EU diplomats.
- Pressure is mounting for US oil services group SLB (SLB) to exit Russia operations, according to FT.
- Spot gold nursed some of the prior day’s losses after trickling lower alongside a firmer dollar.
- Copper futures benefitted amid the mostly improved risk appetite seen in global markets including its largest buyer China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extended on the prior day’s intraday rebound and briefly returned to above the USD 95,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump is considering trade lawyer Jeffrey Kessler for a key China role heading the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.
- China is increasing its scrutiny of exports by Apple (APPL) and other US tech companies which is hampering their efforts to expand production in Southeast Asia and India as tighter customs checks related to dual-use technology export controls have resulted in delays of days and weeks on shipments of production equipment to Vietnam and India, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Nikkei.
- US lawmakers urged President Biden to extend January 19th deadline to prevent TikTok ban if Supreme Court does not block the law, while was separately reported that China discussed the sale of TikTok’s US operations to Elon Musk as a possible option, according to Bloomberg.
- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said in conducting monetary policy, it is necessary to pay close attention to short-term developments in economic activity, prices, and financial conditions and noted that inflation expectations have risen from below 1.0% to around 1.5%. Himino said they will likely hike rates if their economic forecasts are realised and while the direction is for further rate hikes, they must carefully watch various upside and downside risks at home and abroad. Furthermore, he said in guiding policy, determining the timing of policy change is difficult and important, as well as noted the board will likely debate whether to hike rates and make a decision at next week’s policy meeting. Furthermore, he stated it is not a normal state for real rates to stay negative for a prolonged period once shock and deflationary factors dissipate, while he added it is not possible to telegraph the monetary policy decision as the outcome of the policy meeting depends on discussions at the meeting.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the BoJ considering a rate hike and the government’s aim to exit deflation are not contradictory.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) 92.1 (Prev. 92.8)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence MM (Jan) -0.7% (Prev. -2.0%)
- New Zealand NZIER Confidence (Q4) 16.0% (Prev. -1.0%)
- New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity (Q4) 91.3% (Prev. 89.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli army announced sirens were activated in central Israel after a rocket launch from Yemen and Israeli media reported the suspension of flights from Ben Gurion Airport due to rocket fire from Yemen, while the Houthi group said it targeted Israel’s Ministry of Defence with a ballistic missile, according to Asharq News. In relevant news, an Al Jazeera correspondent reported more than 20 strikes in two hours on Gaza City and the central and southern Gaza Strip.
- Israel and Hamas are close to a possible hostage and ceasefire deal that will likely be announced on Monday night or Tuesday morning in which 33 hostages will be released during the first phase, with a staged withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza other than an undefined security perimeter. However, in terms of when the ceasefire deal would be signed and if it would be signed, there was still uncertainty if it was hours away, days away, or could still unravel, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- A deal to end Gaza war is closer than its ever been and a round of talks is planned in Doha on Tuesday morning to finalise remaining details, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the matter.
- Turkish intelligence chief discussed Gaza ceasefire efforts with Hamas officials and agreed to continue efforts to achieve a ceasefire, according to a Turkish security source.
- US President-elect Trump said they are getting very close to an Israeli hostage deal and could have a deal done by the end of the week, while it was also reported that Trump’s envoy conveyed to Israeli PM Netanyahu a strongly worded message from Trump calling on him to conclude a deal, according to Channel 14 citing an Israeli government official.
- US Secretary of State Blinken is to present a post-war plan for Gaza on Tuesday.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia downed more than 200 Ukrainian drones overnight, according to Shot Telegram channel. It was also reported that an industrial enterprise was damaged in the Russian city of Engels after a drone attack.
OTHER
- NATO wants to bring forward an agreement on new weapons and troop goals to summer, while it was also reported that Germany’s Defence Minister said they need to implement NATO’s new capability targets as quickly as possible.– North Korea fired an unknown projectile towards the East Sea, while the South Korean military later announced that North Korea fired multiple short-range missiles off its east coast. Furthermore, South Korean acting President Choi said North Korea’s missile launch is a violation of UN Security Council Resolutions and they will sternly respond to North Korean provocations.
- Philippines National Security Council spokesperson said they were surprised about the increasing aggression being shown by China in deploying a ‘monster ship’ in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and that it is an alarming and clear effort on the part of China to intimidate Filipino fishermen. The spokesperson added that the intention of the Chinese government is to normalise presence in South China Sea waters with the presence of the ‘monster ship’ and they will not stop challenging Chinese presence in Philippine waters.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Bank of France maintained its Q4 GDP growth forecast at zero although ECB’s Villeroy said French economic growth could pick up in 2026 and 2027, while he added that France is not a risk of not being able to finance itself and the question is at what cost.
- French PM Bayrou will deliver a crucial policy speech to lawmakers on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Speech due @ 14:00GMT.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
end
FRANCE
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Israel will not hand body of Yahya Sinwar to Hamas as part of hostage deal, source says
“It won’t happen, period,” the source stated.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 13, 2025 22:23Updated: JANUARY 14, 2025 00:14
Israel will not hand over the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as part of a hostage-prisoner exchange deal, a government source stated Monday night.
Earlier in the evening, Arab media outlet Al Arabiya/Al Hadath reported that Hamas requested Sinwar’s body be handed over during the first phase of the deal.
“Israel will not hand over the body of arch-terrorist Sinwar to Hamas as part of the deal,” the source stated.
“It won’t happen, period.”
President Biden’s remarks
This comes after President Joe Biden said, “We’re on the brink of the proposal that I laid out in detail months ago, finally coming to fruition,” in pre-scheduled remarks on Monday afternoon at the State Department.
Biden explained that there is a structure to free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow a significant surge in humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians “who suffered terribly in this war and Hamas started.”
END
How Joe Biden’s work, with Donald Trump’s pressure, brought a hostage deal – analysis
Trump has made unmistakable statements recently: “If there is no deal by January 20, there will be “hell to pay,” “all hell will break loose.”
By AMICHAI STEINJANUARY 13, 2025 21:28Updated: JANUARY 13, 2025 21:45
Over the last week and a half, Brett McGurk, US President Joe Biden’s lead hostage negotiator, has been living in Doha, Qatar.
He has done so to finalize a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal through intense meetings and tireless work.This deal, which has been poured over for hours, is more or less the one proposed weeks, or even months, ago.
The difference was that up until November 5, there was no hard deadline. On the morning of November 6, a deadline was set: January 20, 12 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, the moment US President-elect Donald Trump will assume the presidency.
Trump has made unmistakable statements over the last few weeks with an identical message: If there is no deal by January 20, there will be “hell to pay,” “all hell will break loose,” or other such variations.
Vice President-elect JD Vance explained on Sunday: “Allowing Israel to dismantle Hamas’s last battalions is what Trump means by ‘all hell’ [will break loose].
Pressure for hostage deal
The threat pressure was not only felt by Hamas, however, and over the past few days, Trump conveyed a message both to Qatari leadership and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the American hostages must come home “no matter what.”
Trump personally sent his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, for negotiations. This is an unprecedented move in the history of transitions between US administrations and conveys the intended message.
Witkoff and McGurk have worked closely together over the past few days, and there is a consensus between the outgoing and incoming administrations. This is remarkable, given that they disagree on most issues, and it is probably what further closed the gap between Israel and Hamas and the points they disagree on.
Trump will take credit, saying his threats are what closed the deal. Biden will say the deal that was closed was the one he presented back in May. That the deal was closed thanks to American pressure will hopefully be something the two could agree on.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS: THE DEAL DISCUSSED
Here are the key terms of the proposed Gaza hostage, ceasefire deal:
ISRAEL HAMAS
Israeli officials: Deal will see 33 hostages freed in 1st stage, most of them alive
Negotiations to free remaining captives to begin on 16th day of potential ceasefire deal; talks advanced after ‘tense’ meeting between Netanyahu, Trump envoy, officials tell ToI
By Amy Spiro, Follow
Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Jacob Magid Follow
and ToI StaffToday, 11:03 pm
Protesters call for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, outside the IDF’s Kirya headquarters in Tel Aviv, January 13, 2025. (Itai Ron/Flash90)
Israeli diplomatic officials said on Monday evening that Israel was in the “advanced stages of the negotiations” with Hamas for a ceasefire deal that would see the terror group release some of the hostages it has been holding in Gaza since October 7, 2023, and ending more than 15 months of war.
Briefing military and diplomatic reporters, the officials said there had been progress in the talks in Doha, which are being coordinated by mediator countries Qatar and Egypt and the outgoing and incoming US administrations, but stressed that “the deal is not finalized.”
According to the Israeli officials, the progress in the negotiations came as a result of the fall of the Iranian-led Axis in the Middle East, with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which led to more pressure on Hamas.
The officials also said that pressure and threats from incoming US President-elect Donald Trump had helped bring Hamas to the table, and they stressed that Israel was working with both teams, including Biden envoy Brett McGurk and Trump official Steve Witkoff, and that the administrations were also coordinating with each other.
The officials said that the first stage of the potential deal would see Hamas release 33 “humanitarian” hostages — children, women, female soldiers, the elderly and the sick. Israel believes most of the 33 are alive but that some are dead, the officials said. They noted that Jerusalem has not yet received any confirmation of their status.
If the first stage is carried out, then on the 16th day of the deal coming into effect, Israel will begin negotiations on a second stage to free the remaining captives — male soldiers and men of military age — and the bodies of slain hostages, the officials said.
Demonstrators protest calling for the release of Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip outside IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, January 13, 2025. (Itai Ron/Flash90)
They denied a report from earlier on Monday that claimed that the first Israeli hostages would only be released a week into the ceasefire taking effect.
It is believed that 94 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.
Israel holding significant ‘assets’ as leverage for the second stage
The officials said that Israel was holding onto significant “assets,” including high-profile terrorists and territory in the Gaza Strip, to use as leverage in the second stage of negotiations to “ensure that every hostage is returned home.”
Under the complete ceasefire agreement, Israel will withdraw from most areas of the Gaza Strip and release large numbers of Palestinian security prisoners, including terrorists who carried out deadly attacks. High-profile “murderer” terrorists will not be released to the West Bank under the deal, the officials said, and nobody who took part in the October 7 Hamas onslaught will be freed, the officials said.
Unconfirmed reports have indicated that some 150-200 “murderer” terrorists would be freed, and that they would not be allowed to return to the West Bank, but, rather, would go to Gaza, and possibly to Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar.
The Saudi TV station al-Hadath reported that Israel had sent Hamas a list of names of hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners potentially to be released, and that Marwan Barghouti, the jailed Intifada leader, who is serving multiple life terms for murder, was not among them. The report was not confirmed, and the Justice Ministry said it had not been asked to compile lists of security prisoners to be freed.
An Israeli official said late Monday that Jerusalem would not return the body of Yahya Sinwar, the architect of Hamas’s October 7 invasion, who was killed by Israeli troops in Rafah in October, after the Saudi outlet Al-Hadath published an unconfirmed report that Hamas was demanding the body of its former leader in the first stage of the deal. “It will not happen. Period,” the official said in a statement.
Inside an IDF forward operating base in the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip, December 26, 2024. (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
The officials said that IDF troops would remain in a new buffer zone inside Gaza to better defend Israeli border communities.
Israel will not completely withdraw from Gaza until the war’s goals are achieved, among them the return of all the hostages, they said.
During the period between the two stages, Israel will continue to hold the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, and there will be “security arrangements” for Palestinian civilians in southern Gaza seeking to return to the Strip’s north, according to the officials.
A different official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Monday that another round of talks would be held in Doha on Tuesday morning to finalize the remaining details related to the deal.
A deal to end the Gaza war is “closer than it’s ever been,” the official said, adding that US envoys Witkoff and McGurk, along with Mossad chief David Barnea and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, were expected to attend.
Qatari emir, US president work the phones as deal looks close
On Monday, Qatar’s ruler Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani held meetings with both US Middle East envoys, according to a statement from his office, during which they “reviewed developments in the Gaza Strip… as well as the latest developments in the ceasefire negotiations.”
US President Joe Biden also held a phone call on the hostage negotiations on Monday with the Qatari emir, in another indication that a deal was on the verge of being reached.
“Both leaders emphasized the urgent need for a deal,” the White House said in its readout, adding that Biden thanked the emir for Qatar’s efforts in mediating between Israel and Hamas.
Demonstrators protest against the Israeli government and for the release of the hostages held in the Gaza Strip, outside the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv, January 11, 2025. (Itai Ron/Flash90)
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden was also scheduled to speak with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi later on Monday. He discussed the developments with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by telephone on Sunday.
Later on Monday, in his capstone foreign policy address at the State Department, Biden said “we’re on the brink” of the hostage deal proposal he laid out in May “finally coming to fruition.”
“I have learned from my many years of public service to never, never, never, ever give up,” he said, adding that the deal would “free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
“The Palestinian people deserve peace and the right to determine their own futures. Israel deserves peace and real security, and the hostages and their families deserve to be reunited. So we’re working urgently to close this deal,” Biden said.
US President Joe Biden speaks at the State Department in Washington, DC, on January 13, 2025, as he delivers his final foreign policy speech. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP)
The diplomatic push came as Netanyahu convened a consultation with the heads of the security establishment, according to Hebrew media reports.
The Ynet news site reported that among the topics discussed was when to bring the hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas up for approval by all the members of the government.
The deal would apparently require approval by the security cabinet and by the government, but not a Knesset vote. The deal would likely attain majority support within the government even if both Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right parties were to vote against it, which both have threatened to do.
Hebrew media reported that Netanyahu was planning to meet with Ben Gvir on Monday evening to gauge his reaction to the possible deal. The far-right minister was also reportedly convening his Otzma Yehudit faction later on Monday in a bid to formulate a response.
Were Smotrich’s and Ben Gvir’s parties to bolt the coalition, Netanyahu would lose his governing majority. Opposition leader Yair Lapid confirmed on Monday he would provide Netanyahu with a parliamentary “safety net” to advance the deal if necessary.
Talks advanced after ‘tense’ meeting between Netanyahu, Trump envoy
Two officials familiar with the latest ceasefire push told The Times of Israel on Monday that Trump’s Mideast envoy held a “tense” meeting with Netanyahu on Saturday, during which the former leaned hard on the Israeli premier to accept compromises necessary to secure a hostage deal by the January 20 US presidential inauguration.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President-elect Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff at his office in Jerusalem, January 11, 2025. (Prime Minister’s Office Spokesperson)
Witkoff’s pressure on Netanyahu appeared to have had an effect, with the two officials familiar with the negotiations saying that key gaps were filled in the talks over the weekend.
Spokespeople for Witkoff and Netanyahu did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter.
US national security adviser: ‘Gaps fundamentally narrowed on key issues’
Meanwhile, Sullivan told reporters on Monday that “formulas” regarding the release of Palestinian security prisoners and the withdrawal of IDF troops from Gaza had been the main sticking points in hostage talks over the past several months and that the narrowing of disagreements on those issues had brought the sides to the brink of a deal.
“We are close to a deal, and it can get done this week,” he said, adding, “I cannot predict that it will… and if in five days it hasn’t happened, I will be the person who is probably least shocked by that.”
Asked whether all seven Americans still being held hostage in Gaza will be released in the first phase of the deal, Sullivan declined to answer but said that the release of all US citizens was a top priority of the outgoing and incoming administrations.
People attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at Central Park in New York City, on January 12, 2025. (Arie Leib Abrams/ Flash90)
Also Monday, a Turkish security source said that Ankara’s intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin spoke by phone with officials from Hamas’s political bureau on the ceasefire talks.
The discussion focused on “the progress made in the negotiations and the current status,” the source said in a statement, adding that the sides agreed to “resume efforts toward achieving a ceasefire.”
Among the reports swirling in Arab media on Monday, Saudi TV station al-Hadath reported that Israel had sent Hamas a list of names of hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners to be released in the potential deal.
The station reported that while some of the prisoners on the list are serving life sentences, jailed Intifada leader Marwan Barghouti was not among them.
A Hamas official, who refused to be named, told the Qatari al-Araby al-Jadeed newspaper that the terror group was set to meet on Monday evening to discuss the latest proposal and that its response would be “positive” if there were no compromises on what the terror group calls “fundamental points.”
Earlier on Monday, Israeli officials denied a report by Saudi outlet Al Arabiya that the terror group had already responded, without reservations.
Ministries reportedly told to prepare to absorb released hostages in coming days
Also amid the buildup, Channel 12 news reported that two government ministries had been told to prepare to absorb released hostages in the coming days.
The Hostages, Missing Persons and Returnees Directorate of the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement it was “routinely prepared” for any hostage deal.
A Red Cross convoy carrying Israeli hostages heads to Egypt from the Gaza Strip in Rafah, Nov. 29, 2023. (AP Photo/Hatem Ali)
“In recent weeks, the Directorate has carried out a number of preparedness exercises for various scenarios, in partnership with the relevant government offices and other professional bodies, and has ensured that they are ready to take care of the returnees and their families,” the statement said.
“Media outlets and the public are requested to respect the privacy of the families in this complicated time,” the statement added, noting that the office is in “continuous contact” with the hostages’ relatives.
Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 40 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.
Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.
Agencies and Lazar Berman contributed to this report contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
With less than one week to go, bird brain Blinken unveils his two state solution. It will not work. Palestinian motto is still “river to the sea” you will never have a two state solution.
(Times of Israel)
Blinken to unveil Gaza ‘day-after’ plan in speech sparking division within Biden admin
Secretary wants plan to be blueprint for post-war management of Gaza, but some US officials fear window to give such a speech closed after Nov. and that it could harm hostage talks
By Jacob Magid FollowToday, 7:39 am
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he departs from Rome Ciampino Airport, near Rome, a day after talks in Rome with European counterparts on the need to encourage stability in Syria, as Turkey threatens Kurdish forces in the war-torn country, on January 10, 2025. (Yara Nardi / POOL / AFP)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will unveil a plan for the post-war management of Gaza in a speech on Tuesday that has been the subject of internal divisions within the Biden administration, according to a US official.
Blinken hopes the plan will serve as a blueprint for Gaza’s governance, security and reconstruction after the war. Frameworks for these three issues will be a key part of negotiations regarding the second phase of a still-yet-to-be-finalized hostage deal between Israel and Hamas.
But some in the State Department and White House have expressed concerns that giving the address this week would be ill-timed and potentially damaging to nearly-finished efforts to finalize an agreement on the first stage of a hostage deal, the US official told The Times of Israel on Monday, confirming reporting in the Axios news site.
The Biden administration has been working on crafting this plan for months, and already in the summer Blinken announced that it would be released shortly.
The US worked with allies in the Arab world through a contact group it set up last January to advance the plan for the so-called “day-after” in Gaza.
But the effort faced repeated setbacks, with both Israel and the Palestinian Authority chafing at various components. Meanwhile, Arab allies held off on making commitments regarding their participation before there was a ceasefire in Gaza, which few felt would take so long to secure.
People inspect the rubble of a collapsed building that was hit by Israeli strikes in the Saraya area in al-Rimal in central Gaza City on January 4, 2025 (Photo by Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)
The US has argued that waiting until after the war ends to have a day-after plan in place is a recipe for disaster, but Blinken ultimately wasn’t able to convince other allies to get on board. When the contact group did put together its own plan seeking the administration’s support over the summer, the US pushed back on some of the proposal’s key elements, arguing that they were unrealistic.
With the Democrats losing the presidential election, Blinken’s speech is being likened to one former secretary of state John Kerry gave in December 2016 in which he made a final case for the two-state solution, while excoriating Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank. The address was blasted by Israel.
Blinken’s speech on Tuesday at the Atlantic Council will have some of the same themes, while focusing more on the post-war management of Gaza and the opportunities that lie ahead for Israel, the PA and the region if it is managed properly, the US official said.
The plan Blinken is slated to unveil envisions a reformed PA leading the post-war governance of Gaza in what would create a pathway to an eventual two-state solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thus far ardently resisted any PA involvement in Gaza, but Blinken is expected to reiterate how a role for Ramallah would unlock the assistance of Arab allies that the premier has been seeking.
Blinken will argue that allowing the PA to return to Gaza would create a pathway for a two-state solution — Saudi Arabia’s final condition for a normalization deal with Israel, which Netanyahu has long sought.
In June, Blinken told Mideast counterparts that Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are prepared to participate in a post-war Gaza security force, three officials familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel. However, the officials said that Cairo and Abu Dhabi both stipulated conditions for their involvement, including a demand that the initiative be at the invitation of a reformed PA and linked to the establishment of a political horizon for Palestinians.
Palestinian children inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike the previous night, in Jabalia, in the central Gaza Strip on January 1, 202. (Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)
But the fear from some in the administration is that the speech will end up serving Netanyahu’s political interests, while marginalizing the PA and its President Mahmoud Abbas, Axios reported.
The US official speaking to The Times of Israel said that Netanyahu could end up using the plan as an excuse to blow up the hostage negotiations by arguing that the talks are being used to allow the PA to gain a foothold in Gaza once the war is over.
A second US official rejected that charge, saying the US has long called for the involvement of a reformed PA in Gaza and that doing so again on Tuesday won’t have any impact on the hostage talks, which the Biden administration is working together with the incoming Trump team to close.
Hostage talks in Doha progressed significantly since the weekend, with two officials crediting a “tense” meeting US President-elect Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff held in Jerusalem with Netanyahu during which he pressed the premier to make the compromises necessary to secure a deal by the January 20 inauguration.
Aides for Biden and Trump have been optimistic, but outgoing US officials have acknowledged that they’ve been this close to a deal before only for the talks to fall apart.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/LAST NIGHT
18 said killed in overnight Israeli strikes in Gaza
By Agencies
A Palestinian medic helps a man injured in Israeli strikes disembark from an ambulance into at Al-Ahli Arab hospital, also known as the Baptist hospital, in Gaza City on January 13, 2025 (Photo by Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)
Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip killed at least 18 people overnight, including six women and four children, local health officials say.
Two strikes in the central Gaza city of Deir al-Balah killed two women and their four children, who ranged in age from 1 month to 9 years old. One of the women was pregnant and the baby did not survive, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the bodies.
Another 12 people were killed in two strikes on the southern city of Khan Younis, according to the European Hospital.
The figures could not be verified.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. Israel says it only targets terror operatives and accuses them of hiding among civilians in shelters and tent camps for the displaced.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS//early Tuesday morning
Hamas accepts terms of ceasefire agreement draft, release of hostages – report
According to the report, an Israeli official noted that while progress had been made, the final details were still under discussion.
By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 14, 2025 12:39Updated: JANUARY 14, 2025 13:11
Hamas has agreed to the proposed ceasefire deal in Gaza and the release of numerous hostages, according to two officials involved in the negotiations, the Associated Press reported on Tuesday.
According to the report, an Israeli official noted that while progress had been made, the final details were still under discussion.
The Associated Press obtained a copy of the draft agreement, which was authenticated by both an Egyptian and a Hamas official.
All three officials spoke anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the closed-door negotiations.
Qatar, a key mediator in the talks, described the current situation as the “closest” the parties have come to an agreement.
The closest point
“We have handed over drafts of the ceasefire agreement to both sides, and talks are now ongoing on the final detail,” the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced on Tuesday.
“We have overcome the major differences. This is the closest point we have been to a deal over the past months,” the statement added.
This is a developing story.
END
TIMES OF ISRAEL
Hamas has accepted draft agreement for Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, officials tell AP
Israel to release 50 Palestinian prisoners including 30 serving life sentences for each of the 5 female soldier hostages * Ben Gvir says he foiled deal multiple times
Hostages’ families leave meeting with PM with questions on when 2nd phase of deal will begin
Sharon Sharabi speaks to reporters after leaving a meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hostage families at his Jerusalem office on January 14, 2025. (Screen capture/Channel 12)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has wrapped his meeting with the first of two groups of hostages’ families at his office in Jerusalem.
Several of those who were in the first meeting tell Channel 12 that they left with lots of questions unanswered, particularly regarding when the second and third phases of the deal will commence.
The first stage of the deal is slated to last six weeks and see the release of 33 hostages — the remaining women, elderly and severely ill hostages.
The deal on the verge of being inked stipulates that on the 16th day of the first phase, Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations regarding the terms of the second stage during which the remaining living hostages will be released. If talks have not completed by the end of the first phase, the sides will be urged by the mediators to continue negotiating until the terms of the second phase are reached.
Netanyahu has preferred the staged framework, rejecting a one-stage deal for all of the hostages in exchange for Israel permanently ending the war, arguing that doing so would allow Hamas to remain in power.
Hamas has sought assurances from the mediators that the first phase will lead immediately to the second phase, which is supposed to end with the declaration of a permanent ceasefire. The third phase is slated to see the release of remaining bodies of slain hostages.
Sharon Sharabi, whose brothers Yossi and Eli are held in Gaza, tells reporters after the meeting that the government should not agree to wait until the 16th day to start negotiations on the terms of the second phase, arguing that these talks should commence right away. Yossi Sharabi was accidentally killed in an IDF strike, while Eli Sharabi is believed to be alive.
The first meeting at the premier’s office lasted 45 minutes, with Netanyahu telling the families that talks are advancing and that he is doing everything he can to bring about the release of all 98 hostages, Channel 12 reports.
Netanyahu highlighted how Israel’s military successes over the past several months led Hamas to compromise on some of its positions. He says that the deal will allow Israel to remain in the first phase in the Philadelphi Corridor along with a buffer zone along the Israel-Gaza border.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Hamas Accepts US-Mediated Ceasefire, Netanyahu Convenes Urgent Security Cabinet Meeting
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 12:05 PM
Officials have told the Associated Press on Tuesday that Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, a day after President Biden said the sides are “on the brink” of reaching a breakthrough agreement.
This indeed may be the closest the negotiating sides have come to reaching a deal, after more than a year of failed attempts. “The ball is now in Hamas’s court. If Hamas accepts, the deal is ready to be concluded and implement it,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said, strongly suggesting that Israel has already accepted. Blinken emphasized the deal is “ready to be concluded and implemented.“
However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office has not confirmed acceptance, and there’s been frustration in the past over last minute additions from the Israeli side which has blown up draft agreements. But a final Netanyahu decision is said to be just hours away, and a deal could be proclaimed by Wednesday morning.
Blinken described that American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators submitted the final draft hostage deal to Israel and Hamas on Sunday, and there have been optimistic statements ever since, especially in Biden’s final foreign policy address on Monday.
Blinken in fresh remarks stressed, “I believe we will get a ceasefire. Whether we get there in the remaining days of our administration, or after January 20, the deal will follow closely the terms of the agreement that President Biden put forward last May and that our administration rallied the world behind.”
Blinken explained that “at different moments, different parties have made it hard to finalize an agreement or events have delayed or derailed its completion.”
“For the past several months, Hamas has played the spoiler, but over the past several weeks, our intensive efforts have brought us to the brink of full and final agreement,” he said. Of course, the Palestinian side has laid blame squarely on the Israelis.
An urgent meeting of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, set to convene tonight, could give final approval for the deal:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold an urgent meeting with top security officials Tuesday night, according to an Israeli official.
The security consultation will be about a potential deal that would release the hostages, the official told CNN. Netanyahu spokesperson Omer Dostri told CNN the meeting will be a “status [of the deal] discussion.”
Trump’s team has an envoy present for these negotiations, but as Times of Israel reports, some Israeli hardline political factions are trying to convince the president-elect, who enters the White House is less than a week, to reject the deal and instead press for Israeli sovereignty over all Palestinian territories:
Religious Zionism lawmaker Ohad Tal calls on US President-elect Donald Trump to oppose the hostage deal that his own envoy Steve Witkoff is currently working to finalize in Doha along with US President Joe Biden’s top aide Brett McGurk.
“The current deal, which was pushed by the Biden administration, is a horrible deal that will roll back all of Israel’s achievements of the past year,” he says at a prayer breakfast at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Tal says that Trump, “more than any other leader in the world,” knows how “to differentiate between good and evil and I call on you from here from this important podium not to support a deal that will leave this total evil of Hamas in power; not to support a deal that will leave back the vast majority of the hostages.”
Calling Trump’s recent electoral win a “spiritual victory for the values we all treasure,” Tal criticizes “wokeism” and says that the incoming administration provides “an opportunity to apply full Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, the heart of our ancestral homeland.”
As for the hostages, there are still nearly 100 unaccounted for, but at least 30 have been confirmed deceased by Israeli officials, and the fates of many more remain uncertain.
“Israel believes that most of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal are alive, a senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday, but the bodies of dead captives will also likely be among those released,” CNN reports. “The first phase would take place over an initial 42-day ceasefire.”
ISRAEL/LEBANON
END
ISRAEL //HOUTHIS
Sirens sound after Houthis fired a missile across central Israel. It was shot down
(JerusalemPost)
Rocket sirens sound across central Israel following projectile from Yemen
The IDF stated that several attempts were made to intercept the missile that was launched and that it was likely intercepted.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 14, 2025 03:07Updated: JANUARY 14, 2025 04:50
Rocket sirens sounded across Tel Aviv and central Israel following a missile that was launched from Yemen early Tuesday morning.
The IDF stated that several attempts were made to intercept the missile that was launched and that it was likely intercepted.
MDA paramedics have been deployed to search an area of a reported rocket strike, the national emergency service stated.
MDA teams also treated 11 people who were injured on their way to a bomb shelter, as well as four others suffering from anxiety.
Landings and takeoffs at Ben-Gurion Airport were briefly delayed due to the rocket launch, Ynet reported.
Last sirens were only several hours earlier
Sirens sounded earlier in several areas of Israel and the West Bank late Monday afternoon following a missile fired from Yemen, which was intercepted by the IAF.
The most recent siren sounded only a few days after Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom launched coordinated airstrikes on Houthi strongholds in Yemen.
The Yemen-based terrorist organization had been making headlines in recent weeks for firing missiles and drones at Israel over multiple nights at a time.
end
Woman says she only noticed Houthi missile on her roof in the morning
Fragments of a Houthi ballistic missile cause damage to a home in a town near Jerusalem, January 14, 2025. (Israel Police)
A woman whose home was hit by a large chunk of debris from an overnight Houthi missile says she only noticed the damage when she went out for a walk.
Michal Wexler, a resident of Mevo Beitar near Jerusalem, tells Ynet that while she and her family were woken by the sirens at around 3 a.m., they did not hear anything to suggest part of the missile had hit their home.
“When we went out for our usual morning walk we saw broken tiles. Only when we looked up did we see a missile on our roof,” she says, adding that the family is uninjured.
“It’s not the smallest part, but we did not hear anything really unusual in the night,” she says, adding that the local security officer had confirmed to her that the large cylinder perched on her home was part of the Houthi ballistic missile.
The military said it had tried to intercept it, but did not give further details.
END
ISRAEL/LEBANON/TUESDAY AFTERNOON
looks like we are getting closer to peace all around
(JerusalemPost
Lebanon’s next PM extends hand to Hezbollah, aims to rebuild Lebanon
Salam said he would work for justice for the victims of the 2020 Beirut port explosion, which killed at least 220 people and no senior official has taken responsibility for.
By REUTERSJANUARY 14, 2025 16:28Updated: JANUARY 14, 2025 20:04
Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam said on Tuesday his hands were “extended to everyone” in a gesture to the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group that accused opponents of seeking to exclude it by nominating him for the post.
President Joseph Aoun formally designated Salam, who has been serving as presiding judge at the International Court of Justice, to form the next government on Tuesday after he won the backing of a majority of lawmakers the previous day.
Salam’s nomination has reflected a dramatic shift in the power balance in Lebanon, a result of the heavy blows dealt to Hezbollah in last year’s war with Israel, compounded by the ousting last month of its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad.
It follows last week’s election of Aoun, the former head of the Lebanese army who has U.S. and Saudi support.
Speaking after the meeting, Salam said he was committed to rebuilding from last year’s war between Israel and Hezbollah, and that it was time for “a new chapter” in Lebanon “rooted in justice, security, progress and opportunities.”
Reconstruction “requires the full implementation of (U.N.) Resolution 1701 and all provisions of the ceasefire agreement and the imposition of the enemy’s complete withdrawal from the last occupied inch of our lands,” he said, referring to Israel.
Hezbollah had wanted outgoing Prime Minister Najib Mikati to keep the job, and believed this had been secured under the terms of a political understanding by which its lawmakers endorsed Aoun as president last week, Hezbollah sources say.
But Salam emerged with the endorsement of 84 out of parliament’s 128 lawmakers, among them Christians, Druze and Sunni Muslim MPs, including both Hezbollah allies and opponents.
Another sectarian rift?
Hezbollah and the allied Shi’ite Amal Movement, which together hold all seats in parliament reserved for Shi’ite Muslims, endorsed nobody, and have indicated they do not intend to join Salam’s government. This raises the prospect of a fresh sectarian rift – unless he can convince them otherwise.
Salam said he supported unity and was against exclusion.
“This is my sincere call and both my hands are extended to everyone,” he said.
Aoun, in comments published on the presidency’s X feed, said Salam’s nomination was “a democratic process” while appearing to acknowledge Hezbollah’s concern, saying that “if one group is broken, all of Lebanon is broken.”
Hezbollah had long held decisive sway over such appointments, its role underpinned by the powerful arsenal which critics say has undermined the state and unilaterally dragged Lebanon into regional wars.
Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament must be a Shi’ite.
Salam said he would work for justice for victims of the 2020 Beirut port explosion. No senior official has been held to account for the blast, which killed at least 220 people and arose from the detonation of hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate.
He also said he would work for justice for depositors whose savings have been frozen inside the Lebanese financial system since it collapsed in 2019, the result of decades of corruption and waste by the ruling elite.
“We have wasted many opportunities to build the state. Enough wasted opportunities,” he said.\
end
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
| Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for moreIs the vast majority of ‘treatment effects’ in clinical trials e.g. drug, vaccine, medical devices etc. due NOT to the intervention under study effect, BUT rather contextual effects, PLACEBOpatient expectations, doctor-patient interactions, or even of being included into a trial? Does the PLACEBO effect in most research explain near 80% of effect size, or VARIANCE explained? Yes!Dr. Paul AlexanderJan 13 READ IN APP Teaser:‘~This study challenges traditional assumptions by demonstrating that the majority of treatment effects in these trials arise from context effects, e.g. patient expectations, doctor-patient interactions, or of being included into a trial. Only a maximum of 28% of the variance can be attributed to pharmacological ‘intervention’ effects (drug, vaccine etc.) and this figure may still include error and unexplained variance. This means that pharmacological intervention (drug, vaccine etc.) effects account for a much smaller proportion of improvements than is usually assumed.’Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Upgrade to paidRemember, the placebo effect or response (contains the placebo effect also) occurs in both arms of a trial, the intervention and placebo arm. The question always is, how much effect is there above placebo in the treatment intervention arm (pharmacological effect), to make it worthwhile to take that vaccine or drug. Taking ‘costs or risks’ into account.As you wrap your head around that, we knew for decades in the EBM world that most clinical trials, if re-run, will get different results and that most estimates of effect are biased as over-estimations of effect size due to stopping early for benefit, improper randomization (sequence generation), allocation concealment, improper or failed blinding of researcher, subject, outcome assessor etc., baseline imbalance, small sample size, small number of outcome events (< 200) etc. etc. etc.This study adds to the evidence that most studies, published work over-estimates and over-reports the treatment effect and that MOST of the variability/variance in the effect is due to (explained by) the PLACEBO effect. Not the actual intervention under study. On top of that, as Pfizer and Moderna and the FDA and Bourla and Bancel et al. did for the fraud mRNA clinical trials, with fraudulent data reported to FDA and FDA took it as were part of the fraud to bring EUA, they reported relative risk reduction (RRR) and not the absolute risk reduction (ARR) which is the actual risk, also not reporting the number needed to treat or harm (NNT/NNH)…the RRR is a biased estimate as it is ONLY the difference in risk between 2 group RELATIVE to each other e.g. (CER-EER/CER) x 100% or control event rate – experimental event rate/ control event rate x 100% while the ARR is the absolute pure difference in risk e.g. CER-EER. RRR is meant to via reporting, to deceive the public. e.g. if baseline risk of stroke or baseline control event rate (prevalence) is 0.02% in a population (I am using very small numbers here to show you the fraud con of RRR), and a drug decreases risk of stroke to 0.01%, then RRR is (CER-EER/CER) x 100% or (0.02-0.01/0.02) x 100% = 50% while ARR is 0.02-0.01=0.01%Using same CER and EER, if I told you that the drug or vaccine reduced your risk by 50% (RRR), you will say give me lots of that, you will not even mind the ‘costs’ or burden of taking it even the toxic side effects (potential), versus if I told you that the risk is only decreased by 0.01% (ARR) and that the vaccine was costly, had side effects even modest, you needed to monitor blood levels after that so lots of burden etc. You will say nah, I do not want that, too much cost to me. So, then you can make a much better accurate informed decision with ARR versus RRR that is inflated and gives you misleading information. RRR is meant to deceive, and it is what Pfizer and Moderna gave to FDA and FDA plays along and in the game. They knew that the Pfizer mRNA shot had a RRR of 95% and an ARR of 0.7% or so. But you were never told 0.7% ARR (never reported nor the NNT or vaccinated to get one positive outcome/reduced infection etc. as 140 or so (NNT is 100%/ARR%) for you would not have taken the vaccine. Not for that modest little benefit on top of the potential risks.Put that in your pipe and smoke it! |
EVOLS NEWS
| Here’s Who Is Performing at Trump’s InaugurationThe festivities planned for President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration next week symbolize a vibrant return to the White House — in contrast to his ceremony eight years ago, when his team struggled to book big musical acts and people descended on the city to protest his swearing-in.This year’s inaugural schedule features a fireworks show at Trump’s Washington-area golf club, a “Make …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Melania Reveals Where She ‘Will Be Spending the Most of Her Time’ During Trump AdministrationFirst Lady Melania Trump revealed where she plans to spend most of her time once her husband returns to office during an interview with Fox News’ Ainsley Earhardt.Rumors and reports have spread that Melania would be splitting her time between Florida and New York, where Barron is going to college, instead of the White House.“And where will you be spending …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| DeSantis calling special session to ensure his state is OPPOSITE of a sanctuary state for TrumpGovernor DeSantis announced this morning that he will be calling a special session of the legislature in January to ensure his state is the opposite of a sanctuary state. DeSantis says he wants to make sure officials are ready and funded to aid President Trump with deportations: We have a responsibility to be in this fight. State and local officials …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Pete Hegseth’s Fox News Salary RevealedPete Hegseth is prepared to take a massive pay cut for a chance to join President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet.The 44-year-old will face a good old Capitol Hill grilling on Tuesday in his first confirmation hearing to serve as Secretary of Defense in Trump’s second White House term.Financial disclosure released on Monday, and first reported by the Washington Post, revealed that …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Biden Uses Loophole for Defiant Last Act on Student Loans — As Total Forgiveness Cost Hits $183 BillionIn his final hours at the White House, President Joe Biden announced the cancellation of student debt for another 150,000 borrowers.While he was unable to deliver on his promise of broad student loan forgiveness, President Biden has overseen the cancellation of student debt for more than 5 million Americans – more than any other president in US history.In the last-minute …READ THE FULL REPORT |
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay NewsBombshell Study Confirms ‘Covid Deaths’ Were Caused by ‘Vaccines’A major study has found that the mass deaths commonly attributed to COVID-19 during the pandemic were actually caused by mRNA vaccines.READ MOREIMF Chief Boasts CBDCs Harvest ‘Very Useful Data’ for Public’s ‘Social Credit Score’The head of the International Money Fund (IMF) has reassured his fellow globalists that a universal Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will provide enough data to give every member of the public around the world a “social credit score.”READ MOREInsurance Industry Facing Financial Ruin Due to ‘Tsunami’ of Sudden Deaths Among Covid-VaccinatedThe damage delivered by the COVID-19 vaccines is putting Insurance companies “in very serious trouble” due to the soaring death rates across the world.READ MOREKlaus Schwab Hails the ‘Intelligent Age,’ Boasts ‘AI-Driven Systems Are Outperforming Humans’World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab is boasting that artificial intelligence (AI) technology is now becoming so advanced that it is “outperforming humans.”READ MORETrump Vows to End ‘Transgender Lunacy’ on Day OnePresident Donald Trump has vowed that he will put an end to “transgender lunacy” with executive orders on “Day One” of his second term in the White House.READ MORE40% of All Murders in America Are Committed in Districts with a Soros-Controlled Prosecutor40 percent of all murders that are committed across the country occur in districts with prosecutors who are funded and controlled by radical billionaire George Soros.READ MOREVIEW MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST NEWS |
| Michael Cohen begs Biden for presidential pardonFormer Trump attorney Michael Cohen has publicly urged President Joe Biden to grant him a presidential pardon, likening his case to that of Hunter Biden, who was pardoned by the president earlier this month. Cohen claims a pardon is necessary to shield him from potential legal retribution under President-elect Donald Trump. Speaking on MSNBC’s The Weekend on Saturday, Cohen detailed …READ MORE |
| Arson suspect arrested in Azusa park amid ongoing LA wildfiresAzusa police arrested a man late Friday night on suspicion of starting a brush fire at Pioneer Park, located at 1360 N. Dalton Avenue. Officers responded to the scene around 11:30 p.m. after a witness reported the fire and identified a suspect lingering nearby. The suspect, Jose Carranza-Escobar, described by police as a “transient with a last known address in …READ MORE |
| Podcaster Sam Harris spreads theories that Trump wasn’t actually shotSam Harris appeared on Bill Maher’s Club Random podcast, where he suggested that President-elect Donald Trump may not have been struck by a bullet during an assassination attempt at a Butler, PA rally. Instead, Harris speculated that Trump might have been injured by a shard of shrapnel from a shattered teleprompter. “I’m surprised that a rifle round making any degree …READ MORE |
| Gavin Newsom cut LA fire department budget by $100 millionCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom has come under fire after reports revealed his administration cut more than $100 million from wildfire prevention program in the state’s fiscal 2025 budget. The move, signed into law in June, has raised serious concerns about the state’s preparedness as wildfires devastate communities across California. According to a Newsweek report, the budget slashed $101 million from …READ MORE |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Canada
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0252 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 157.91 UP 0.598 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2169 DOWN .0062 OR 62 PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4388 UP 0.0024 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 80.19 PTS OR 2.57%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.64 PTS OR 1.83%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.47%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 345.64 PTS OR 1.83%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 80.19 PTS OR 2.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.47
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 716.10 PTS OR 1.83%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2667.65
silver:$29.72
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 109.49 DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS FROM MOMDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.079% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.240% up 4 AND 1/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.314 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.383 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6165 UP 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0266 up .0020 OR 20 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.78 UP 0.486 OR YEN IS UP 18 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.9430 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0023 OR 23 BASIS pts to 1.4387
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.3311 (ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3482)
TURKISH LIRA: 35.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.240
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.796-% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.989 UP 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.377 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2665/25
SILVER AT 11;00: 29.80
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 22.65 pts or 0.28%
German Dax : UP 138.46 pts or 0.69%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 15.03 pts or 0.20%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 63.90 PTS OR 0.55%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 325.32 PTS OR 0.93%
WTI Oil price 77,01 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 79.98 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 103.24 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 54/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6165 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.943 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.569 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.296 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0306 UP 0.0042 OR 42 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR
British Pound: 1.2204 DOWN 0.0021 OR 21 basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.884 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.240
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.95 UP .638 OR 64 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4359 DOWN .0006 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 77.65
Brent OIL: 80.06
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS pts to 4.792
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.985%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT 4.365
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.578 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.305 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 109.05 DOWN 76 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.47 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 103.37 DOWN 0 AND 67/100 roubles
GOLD 2,673.70 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 29.84 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 220.67 PTS OR 0.92%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 27.31 PTS OR 0.13%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.16 DOWN 03 PTS OR 0.16%
GLD: $ 247.02 OR UP 1.28 PTS OR 0.52%
SLV/ $27.20 PTS OR UP 0,24 OR 0.89%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 17.96 PTS OR 0.07%
end
USA AFFAIRS/HEADLINES ZERO HEDGE
Bitcoin & Bullion Bid As ‘Bear Market In Bullish Sentiment’ Continues For Stocks
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
LOS ANGELES FIRES
Return Of Strong Winds Spark “Dangerous Situation” Across Fire-Ravaged Palisades
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 08:00 AM
One week after the fires in Los Angeles County began, the blazes remain out of control, scorching nearly 40,000 acres and leveling entire neighborhoods. On Tuesday, winds are expected to gust between 45 and 70 mph, accompanied by dry air, significantly increasing the risk of fire spread.
The National Weather Service has issued “Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warnings” for L.A. and Ventura counties through Wednesday evening, warning that “this setup is about as bad as it gets.”
Strong gusts could derail any progress made by firefighters early this week across two of the main fires, the Palisades and Eaton fires. The blazes have burned upwards of 40,000 and leveled entire neighborhoods and burned more than 12,000 structures. At least 24 people have died, with the death toll expected to rise.
Here’s the latest update on the two main fires (courtesy of the L.A. Times):
Palisades Fire:
Burned 23,713 acres and numerous homes, businesses and landmarks in Pacific Palisades and westward along Pacific Coast Highway, toward Malibu. As of Monday morning, the fire was 14% contained, up from 11% early Sunday. Many parts of Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Calabasas, Brentwood and Encino are under evacuation orders or warnings. More than 12,000 structures remain threatened. Santa Monica has downgraded its mandatory evacuation orders to warnings. Officials estimate that more than 5,300 structures, including many homes, have been damaged or destroyed.
Eaton Fire:
Burned 14,117 acres and many structures in Altadena and Pasadena. As of Monday morning, the fire was 33% contained, up from 27% early Sunday. Officials say 7,000 structures have been damaged in the fire. Most of Altadena was under an evacuation order, as was unincorporated Kinneloa Mesa. In Pasadena, a mandatory evacuation order was in place in the northern half of the neighborhood of Hastings Ranch. In Sierra Madre, mandatory evacuations were in effect in some areas north of Grand View Avenue, and voluntary evacuations were in place in other portions of the city.
As of Tuesday morning, the Palisades and Eaton Fires remained largely uncontrolled with low containment.
Fire Map (L.A. Times):
The latest losses for the insurance industry could be monumental, with some figures pointing to $30 billion, if not more.
Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs analysts have published new insured loss estimates that surpass JPMorgan’s predictions of $20 billion from last week.
Goldman analysts believe estimated insured losses could be between $10 and $30 billion, with the figure for uninsured losses north of $40 billion.
Wells Fargo analyst noted that home insurance providers Allstate, Chubb, American International Group, and Travelers are some of the most exposed insurers of the fires.
Mercury General and Cincinnati Financial are the most exposed insurers…
On Monday morning, L.A. residents sued Energy company Edison International for its alleged role in igniting at least one of the wildfires.
Bloomberg reported, “The lawsuit is on behalf of a group of homeowners, renters, business owners and others with properties destroyed by the Eaton Fire in the Pasadena area,” adding, “The suit alleges a Southern California Edison pole holding power lines was the cause of the blaze that leveled the town of Altadena.”
By the evening, property owners in Palisades sued the city of Los Angeles’ electric and water utility for not supplying enough water to firefighters. The plaintiffs claim that a reservoir in the area was drained, causing low pressure in fire hydrants.
Latest Zero Hedge headlines:
- 10 Dead, 10,000 Structures Burned In Los Angeles Area Inferno As Fire Damage Could Exceed $150 Billion
- “Do Not Panic Buy”: Officials Urge Calm As LA Fire Crisis Disrupts Main Fuel Pipeline To Las Vegas
- “We’re Not Screwing Around”: L.A. Sheriff Declares Curfew Amid Arson & Looting Chaos
- California-Based Insurer Crashes Amid Billions In LA Area Fire-Damage Losses
- Arson Threats A “Major Issue” In Wildfire-Ravaged Los Angeles County
- California Imposes 1-Year Insurance Cancellation Freeze In Areas Ravaged By Wildfires
- Palisades Fire Crisis Intensifies Ahead Of Windstorm Event Early Next Week
- Three Military Humvees, Machine Gun Mounts, Stolen Outside Of Los Angeles
- Palisades Fire Threatens New Upscale Communities As Santa Ana Winds Return
- California’s Insurance Crisis Just Got A Whole Lot Worse
- AP News Heavily Ratioed For Blaming Palisades Fire On Climate Change
- Why Was Pacific Palisades Reservoir Empty? It Gets Worse…
- L.A. Residents Sue Edison Utility Over Potential Role In Palisades Fire
- Blaming ‘Climate Change’ For LA Fires Only Makes Newsom Look Criminally Incompetent
Other headlines via L.A. Times, WaPo, Bloomberg, etc…
- L.A. Times: Crews battle brush fire in Oxnard as Santa Ana winds sweep through the region
- WaPo: Los Angeles County district attorney charges 9 people with looting
- WaPo: Republicans say they want to put conditions on wildfire aid to California
- BBG: LA Arrests Mount Over Looting, Curfews in Fire Evacuation Zones
- BBG: L.A. City Utility Sued Over Water Shortage for Palisades Fire
- BBG: L.A. Wildfires Insurance Cost Estimates Spike to $30 Billion
Meanwhile…
Arson?
Whoops.
Blaming ‘Climate Change’ For L.A. Fires Only Makes Newsom Look Criminally Incompetent
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 06:25 PM
“All these things are connected. This is a challenging time. But we’re up to this challenge.”
That was California Gov. Gavin Newsom back in 2020 when he was busy blaming “climate change” for the wildfires that erupted that year.
“I quite literally have no patience for climate change deniers,” he said.
Four years later, Newsom is again blaming “climate change” for the fires ravaging Los Angeles.
But wait. If climate change really is to blame, why was California so obviously, so woefully, so inexcusably unprepared?
Someone needs to ask Newsom why the state didn’t spend the last four years aggressively clearing out underbrush to minimize the chances of a catastrophic wildfire. Why didn’t it carve out large and effective buffer zones to keep fires from reaching populated areas? Why wasn’t there a Marshall Plan-scale effort to build reservoirs so firefighters could get water from hydrants?
It’s not as though the state didn’t have plenty of warning. For decades, environmentalists have been screaming about how “climate change” was going to make wildfires more frequent, more all-consuming, and more deadly.
Yet in the very state where environmentalists hold all the levers of power, they dawdled and delayed, let bureaucratic red tape and environmental groups stall efforts to prepare for the worst, and put other ridiculous and massively expensive projects (such as the “bullet” train) at the front of the line.
And in the process, California has wasted fantastic sums of money.
In 2018, former Gov. Jerry Brown signed a $1 billion bill that was supposed to “prevent catastrophic wildfires and protect Californians.” Where did that money go?
A 2019 report from Newsom’s wildfire “strike force” said that “Over the next five years, the state will commit over $1 billion for critical fuel reduction projects, to support prescribed fire crews, forest thinning, and other forest health projects.”
Early in his term, Newsom launched the California Vegetation Treatment Program, which was advertised as a plan to speed environmental reviews for forest management projects.
But as the Washington Examiner shows in a devastating account of waste and mismanagement:
Those types of projects — such as thinning out dense clusters of trees and prescribed burns to remove the conditions necessary for fires to spread rapidly — have also been stifled by climate groups that regularly challenge them in court.
A Free Beacon review of the program’s latest data found that of the 525 approved projects spanning 666,450 acres, only 231 projects spanning just 6,000 acres have been completed. There are only two projects located in the Los Angeles metro area spanning 130 acres — a fuel reduction project proposed by the Los Angeles County Fire Department and a nonprofit watershed project — but both remain incomplete.
Newsom is hardly blameless. A report three years ago found that he’d been lying about his wildfire prevention efforts.
An investigation from CapRadio and NPR’s California Newsroom found the governor has misrepresented his accomplishments and even disinvested in wildfire prevention. The investigation found Newsom overstated, by an astounding 690%, the number of acres treated with fuel breaks and prescribed burns in the very forestry projects he said needed to be prioritized to protect the state’s most vulnerable communities. Newsom has claimed that 35 ‘priority projects’ carried out as a result of his executive order resulted in fire prevention work on 90,000 acres. But the state’s own data show the actual number is 11,399.
Now we learn that he’d cut funding for wildfire and forest resilience by $101 million in the budget he approved last June, and millions from other programs designed to mitigate fire damage. Is that what Newsom meant when he said in 2019 that he’d “made wildfire prevention and mitigation a top priority since taking office”?
Newsom has been just as lackadaisical when it comes to building new water reservoirs, which you’d think would Job No. 1 in a state convinced that “climate change” will cause more droughts and wildfires.
In 2014, Californians overwhelmingly approved a $7.5 billion water bond proposal, nearly $3 billion of which was set aside to build new reservoirs. More than a decade later, not a single new reservoir has been built. Where has all that money gone?
To be clear, we don’t buy the climate-change-is-to-blame nonsense.
As we noted last week, there’s no evidence that wildfires have become more common or deadly, despite constant claims to the contrary. (See: “Fire, Snow And A Storm Of Climate Nonsense.”)
But Newsom and the rest of the leftist Democrats who run the state do. It’s their religion.
Every time something bad happens in the state, they blame fossil fuels. They are endlessly warning that urgent responses are needed.
And yet, they’ve done next to nothing to protect their residents from what they repeatedly say is an existential crisis.
By their own words, they have convicted themselves of criminal negligence.
end
A good start. The left will go bananas
(zerohedge)
House Republicans Weigh Sweeping $5.7 Trillion In Spending Cuts To Fund Trump’s Domestic Agenda
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 05:20 PM
In a bold and controversial fiscal gamble, House Republicans are circulating a “menu” of proposed spending cuts totaling almost $6 trillion over the next decade. The plan, designed to bankroll President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious priorities – including tax cuts and increased border security – details reductions to major federal programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Biden-era climate initiatives.
The early list, obtained by POLITICO, reflects the GOP’s long-standing goal of reducing government spending, though the magnitude of the suggested cuts underscores the high-stakes nature of the effort. The menu includes slashing welfare programs, revising Affordable Care Act subsidies, and rolling back green energy tax credits. While the list serves as a set of options rather than a formal proposal, it has already sparked intense internal debate among Republicans.
The people, granted anonymity to discuss closed-door negotiations, said that the list originated from the House Budget Committee, chaired by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). Republicans involved in the reconciliation plans have been generally targeting the listed programs for several months, but internal GOP fights over trillions of dollars in potential cuts are just beginning.
The overall savings add up to as much as $5.7 trillion over 10 years, though the list is highly ambitious and unlikely to all become law given narrow margins for Republicans in the House and Senate. -Politico
The “document is not intended to serve as a proposal, but instead as a menu of potential spending reductions for members to consider,” one GOP source told the outlet.
Yet even within the Republican caucus, there is skepticism about the feasibility of achieving such drastic savings. “They all feel pretty controversial,” one senior GOP lawmaker conceded when asked if there were any particularly controversial spending offsets dividing Republicans.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is reportedly working to balance the demands of Trump’s domestic policy agenda, estimated to cost $10 trillion, with the fiscal constraints imposed by his own pledge to slash $2.5 trillion in government spending through the budget reconciliation process as part of last year’s govt. funding negotiations.
Medicaid And ACA In The Crosshairs
One of the most contentious components of the plan targets Medicaid, with proposed caps on federal spending tied to state population levels instead of maintaining the program as an open-ended entitlement. Additionally, the list suggests imposing work requirements for Medicaid recipients and aligning payments for able-bodied adults with those for low-income children and individuals with disabilities – a move projected to save $690 billion.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is another significant target. Republicans are eyeing $46 billion in savings by letting key ACA insurance subsidies expire and limiting eligibility based on citizenship status. These cuts, if pursued, would reignite the political firestorm that has surrounded the ACA since its inception, potentially destabilizing coverage for millions of Americans.
Cuts to Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act and the country’s largest anti-hunger program would spark massive opposition from Democrats and would also face some GOP resistance. House Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford any Republican defections if he wants to pass a package on party lines. -Politico
Medicare is also under scrutiny, with proposed “site-neutral” payments that would equalize costs across outpatient settings – a policy that has garnered bipartisan attention but could face resistance due to concerns over its impact on providers. The list also includes repealing Biden administration health care regulations, such as minimum staffing requirements at nursing homes, which proponents argue drive up costs.
Climate Programs On The Chopping Block
Perhaps the most politically delicate area involves green energy and climate initiatives. The proposal identifies up to $468 billion in savings by repealing provisions from Biden’s climate policies, including electric vehicle incentives and elements of the bipartisan infrastructure law.
Yet, not all Republicans are aligned on this front. Eighteen House Republicans, many representing districts benefiting from clean energy projects, have warned Speaker Johnson against prematurely dismantling green energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture—viewed favorably by some GOP lawmakers—are among the measures that could be impacted.
Even proposed cuts to green energy tax credits, worth as much as $500 billion, could be tricky — as the document notes, they depend “on political viability.” Already 18 House Republicans — 14 of whom won reelection in November — warned Johnson against prematurely repealing some of the IRA’s energy tax credits, which are funding multiple manufacturing projects in GOP districts. -Politico
The challenge for Johnson and his leadership team will be corralling enough Republican votes in the House, where the GOP holds a narrow majority, while navigating the Senate’s more moderate composition. The specter of Republican defections looms large, particularly among lawmakers who represent districts reliant on federal spending for infrastructure and health care programs.
President-elect Trump’s policy blueprint has added another layer of complexity. Trump’s focus on aggressive border security measures and significant tax reductions—signature issues of his campaign—comes with a hefty price tag. His allies in Congress are preparing to meet with him in Florida this weekend to discuss next steps. The proposed cuts to Medicaid, the ACA, and climate programs signal a sharp pivot away from Biden-era policies, but they also risk political fallout that could jeopardize fragile Republican majorities.
end
This is what lab grown diamonds will do to an industry
(zerohedge)
Largest Retailer Of Jewelry Crashes After Guidance Cut, Blames “Consumers Gravitated To Lower Price Point”
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 09:35 AM
Shares of Signet Jewelers, the world’s largest diamond jewelry retailer, plunged in premarket trading in New York after the retailer slashed its fourth-quarter sales forecast. Signet attributed the revision to weaker-than-expected holiday same-store sales, citing “peak selling days leading up to Christmas that were below forecast.”
In a holiday sales update, Signet provided a dismal fourth-quarter outlook, with sales to $2.32 to $2.335 billion, down from estimates previously stated in December of $2.38 to $2.46 billion. This also missed the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $2.41 billion.
Fourth Quarter Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Sees total sales $2.32 billion to $2.34 billion, saw $2.38 billion to $2.46 billion, estimate $2.41 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
- Sees adjusted operating income $337 million to $347 million, saw $397 million to $427 million, estimate $408 million
- Sees same-store sales -2% to -2.5%, saw flat to 3%
Signet operates more than 2,700 retail brick-and-motar-stores under the name brands of Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared, Banter by Piercing Pagoda, Diamonds Direct, Blue Nile, JamesAllen.com, Rocksbox, Peoples Jewellers, H.Samuel and Ernest Jones – warned that cash-strapped consumers “gravitated” to cheaper jewelry during the holiday season – yet another sign low/mid tier consumers are tapped out with drained personal savings and insurmountable credit card debt.
“However, fashion gifting underperformed as consumers gravitated to lower price points even more than anticipated in a continued competitive environment. Merchandise assortment gaps at key gifting price points impeded our ability to meet that trend,” Joan Hilson, Chief Financial and Operating Officer of Signet, stated in a press release.
In premarket trading in New York, Signet shares crashed as much as 22.7%
The key takeaway: Cash-strapped consumers opted for cheaper jewelry as Christmas and holiday gifts, underscoring the financial strain crushing low—and mid-tier households. This trend reflects the lingering effects of failed “Bidenomics,” which sparked a multi-year inflation storm.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
“The Scariest Thing That’s Ever Happened”: Will The “Twitter Files” For Entire U.S. Government Expose Bio Labs In Ukrai
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 10:05 AM
Conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson released a wide-ranging interview Monday with journalist and author Michael Shellenberger in which the pair of truth-tellers discussed the possibility of a “Twitter Files”-style exposé of the U.S. government under the Trump administration, which could shine a light on the concerning possibility of American biological labs in war-torn Ukraine.
TUCKER CARLSON: I was watching Jon Karl, who I on CBS, who I’ve known. Someone sent me a clip this morning. Jon Karl. I’ve known him for over 30 years. Nice guy, you know, reasonable guy. And and then Trump comes, the business starts to collapse and he realizes I’m speaking for him, but he realizes, shit, ‘You know, I’m a middle aged white guy. I better go along.’ And he becomes just this cheerleader for every stupid woke idea ever, ever was. You feel sorry for him? He’s a nice guy, actually, and not a stupid guy. So when you send me a clip of Jon Karl, like basically defending Trump.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: The whether the win is a win.
TUCKER CARLSON: Then you realize that most people just kind of you know, they they’re easy to control. You just yeah, tell them what the program is and they go along.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: Yeah, it’s Kent Brockman. No, you’re totally right.
TUCKER CARLSON: I welcome our new alien overlords.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: They’re the first. They’re the first ones to shift. No, you’re right. Right. You’re right. Yeah, because they’re covering the news like they know they’re the first ones that know when the winds are coming.
TUCKER CARLSON: Principle plays no role. Most people just kind of go along with what they think. The marching.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: Amazing. It really reveals, doesn’t it? The herd animals.
TUCKER CARLSON: So yeah I CBS, I think is at ABC whatever they’re all the same and they’re all going away. Yeah but if you’re true entrenched power which does exist particularly in the Intel agencies I mean that’s where it really resides as far as I can tell. Like, I don’t know, it’s like pretty threat. You’ve just thought there’s been a massive movement in power from the news media, which you control. That’s a fact. I would say, in effect, control news is controlled by the Intel agencies, in fact, to something you can’t control. So that’s a huge loss of power for you. So, like, how can you let this continue?
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: Well, yeah. I mean, or how can they stop it, though? I mean.
TUCKER CARLSON: I don’t know. I’m just feeling all paranoid right now. No, no, I am too much freedom.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: No, I know. No, I totally do too. You’re like a witness. When’s the Pentagon to drop? Well, yeah, and I also kind of go, are they really going to disclose all the stuff that they have? I mean, we were going down. We just did, actually I don’t know if we published. But we’re just going down the list of all the other files that we want because people are like, Well, can we have a Twitter Files for the government? You’re like, Yes. So what? I mean, there’s so much in there. The Russiagate, you know, the Russia collusion hoax, Covid origins, Covid vaccines, Hunter Biden laptop. Yeah. I mean, I’m assuming there’s just a bunch of us in Russia, Ukraine. I mean, remember, because they keep leaking, they’d go. They go there’s no bio labs in Ukraine, right? Well, there were some we were doing some help with the bio.
TUCKER CARLSON: Not only for bio labs in Ukraine. There are a lot of bio labs in Ukraine which are working on biological weapons. That’s what they’re not there for, livestock vaccine, Sorry. And you know, the thing that people don’t in this country understand is that the Ukrainian military is selling about half of the arms they get from the United States into international black markets. And they’re winding up, in some case, with the drug cartels in Latin America. That’s a fact. Okay. Is a fact. And you can buy them. And I spoke to someone who did buy some, actually. So I know I know this is a fact. And they’re bragging about it. So they’re selling conventional weapons, including weapons systems that are very dangerous and very destabilizing that would make commercial air travel impossible, for example.
So what are they doing with the pathogens in those bio labs? And does the Biden administration have a manifest? Do they know exactly what’s in those labs? And will they turn it over to the Trump administration? So we keep track of these things. And the answer is no. Actually, the answer is no. I know this. Wow. So that’s like the scariest thing that’s ever happened then. And so, like what? You know what? I think the Ukraine war has the potential to destabilize the world more than anything that’s happened in my lifetime, just because of the scale of the weapons systems and biological agents involved in the most corrupt country in the West, which is Ukraine, attacking Ukraine. I feel sorry for Ukraine, but what the hell?
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: Yeah.
TUCKER CARLSON: That’s why I’m saying this right now, because I hope this is widely disseminated, because I think it’s like the scariest thing I’ve heard in a long, long time.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: That is scary.
TUCKER CARLSON: But it’s all flowered in secrecy. That’s the point. Yeah. The only reason this stuff has happened like this end of the world stuff has happened is because there’s no disclosure at all. Everything is right.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: It’s so much pent up stuff.
TUCKER CARLSON: So much.
MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: Yeah, the JFK files, the UFO files, UAP files. I’m sorry to say.
END
VDH
KING REPORT
| The King Report January 14, 2024 Issue 7409 | Independent View of the News |
| Fangs/ Mag7 declined sharply in early NYSE trading; but the DJIA rallied (+114 + change at 10:15 ET). At the time, USHs were flat; the dollar was moderately higher; precious metals and crypto were down sharply. Energy commodities were up sharply. Oil, gasoline, and natural gas have been on fire. Nvidia, -3.24% (near 10:15 ET), Apple -2.60%, and Meta -2.34% led the Mag 7 decline. After 10:15 ET, USHs dropped to 110 30/32 (-10/32) at 10:30 ET. USHs hit their double top high of 111 15/32 at 7:56 ET and 8:26 ET. BBG’s @JavierBlas: After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil***. “I’m not expecting any exemptions,” she told reporters. Things looked bad for equities in early NYSE trading. But have no fear! It is Expiry Week and the start of Earnings Season! Pattern and conditioned traders poured into stuff after the early drop. ESHs traded sharply lower during early Nikkei trading after rally to tiny gains twice, ESHs commenced a decline near 19:30 ET the eventually took ESHs to a daily low of 5809.00 at 4:02 ET. ESHs then formed a reverse pennant (modestly higher lows with sharply higher highs) until ESHs broke lower after the 11:30 ET European close. After hitting a low of 5816.50 at 12:01 ET, a Noon Balloon developed. It conflated with the afternoon rally to propel ESHs to a daily high of 5871.00 at 14:42 ET. After a sudden drop to 5856.75 at 14:49 ET. The last-hour rally began; ESHs jumped to 5870.00 at 15:19 ET. ESHs then treaded water until the late manipulation forced ESHs to 5878.25 at 15:57 ET. @nytimes: China said its trade surplus reached a record of nearly $1 trillion last year, as its exports swamped the globe. https://t.co/zRapbgEnMT Positive aspects of previous session Expiry Week and Earnings Season buying propelled the non-Fang stocks sharply higher. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined again; USHs dropped as much as 14/32 and were -6/32 at the NYSE close. Fangs and Mag 7 stocks declined sharply. Energy commodities continue to rally. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will a Fang rally appear soon? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5816.05 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5838.61; 5773.31 Today – The Expiry Week manipulation and earnings season buying lifted stocks, ex-Fangs, on Monday. Traders will continue to buy stuff and the usual weasels will try to manipulate stuff higher today. A worse-than-expected Dec PPI will probably have only a transitory effect because pattern and conditioned traders are determined to play for the seasonal rallies. The big question: When will Fangs join the Expiry Week manipulation? Normally Fangs/Mag 7 are the favored vehicles for pattern rallies. ESHs are +14.75; NQHs +84.25; and USHs +13/32 at 20:30 ET. Traders expected a rally. Expected Economic Data: Dec NFIB Small Business Optimism 101.5; Dec PPI .04% m/m & 3.5% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 3.8% y/y; KC Fed Pres Schmid 10:00 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 15:05 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5952; 100-day MA: 5823; 150-day MA: 5705; 200-day MA: 5576 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,445; 100-day MA: 42,656; 150-day MA: 41,656; 200-day MA: 40,943 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5836.22 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5367.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5982.12 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5882.13 triggers a buy signal Politico: Fire-torn LA dreads Trump’s return (Not a parody headline and story!) https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2025/01/12/fire-torn-la-dreads-trumps-return-00197708 Cause of LA’s Palisades Fire has ‘human origins’ in hiking area popular with teens: report https://trib.al/ajTQR65 @SteveGuest: “Los Angeles fire chief Kristin Crowley warned city officials in November that her department had about half as many firefighters as it needed. When deadly wildfires struck the city two months later, Mayor Karen Bass’s administration pulled Crowley’s memo from its website.” https://t.co/FDhfhVvRtZ Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Per ICE sources, the man seen in a viral video being subdued by residents & arrested by police w/ a blowtorch near the Kenneth Fire in West Hills is an illegal alien from Mexico named Juan Manuel Sierra-Leyva. He is in custody on a probation violation & has NOT been charged w/ arson. I’m told ICE will place a detainer request on him with the L.A. County Sheriff’s Department, but they do not expect it to be honored due to California’s Sanctuary State law. I’m told Sierra-Leyva will have a court appearance tomorrow. Again – he has not been charged w/ arson and is in custody only on a probation violation at the moment, as multiple agencies have been interviewing him. @TheBabylonBee: Biden Desperately Searches for Anything Else He Can Screw Up in the Next 6 Days https://buff.ly/3DUjJOg @MZHemingway: So apparently @briansflood reported this years ago but I missed it. The “Access Hollywood” tape was leaked by NBC in 2016 to the Washington Post, as we all know. (Billy Bush was collateral damage in the leak operation.) Anyway, he notes the head of NBC was this guy named Noah Oppenheim. Oppenheim’s coeditor at the Harvard Crimson was none other than @Fahrenthold, the recipient of the leak. And they were both actual groomsmen in Chelsea Clinton’s wedding!? Shortly after running the information operation against Trump, (David) @Fahrenthold was given a contributing gig at MSNBC. https://x.com/MZHemingway/status/1878687920518779067 | |
—
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
what new things could be released with this nonsense
(zerohedge)
Judge Allows Public Release Of Volume 1, Blocks Volume 2 Of Smith’s Report On Trump Cases
Monday, Jan 13, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A federal judge has cleared the way for the public release of volume one of special counsel Jack Smith’s final report on investigations involving President-elect Donald Trump while opting to keep volume two of the report restricted.
Volume one pertains to Smith’s election interference case against Trump, while volume two relates to the classified documents case.
In a Jan. 13 order, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon partially denied an emergency motion by two Trump co-defendants—Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira—to block the public release of the report. Nauta and De Oliveira had filed an emergency motion seeking to prevent the release of both volumes of Smith’s report, citing concerns that it would prejudice their pretrial rights.
Cannon upheld their request to restrict volume two—pertaining to a classified documents probe involving Trump in which Nauta and De Oliveira are co-defendants. The judge noted that release of volume two would be “inconsistent” with the defendants’ right to a fair trial.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) had argued that selective release of volume two to congressional leaders was in the public interest but stopped short of advocating for broader dissemination. Nauta and De Oliveira had argued that releasing the volume, even in a limited capacity, could irreparably damage their legal standing.
Cannon scheduled a hearing for Jan. 17 to address the DOJ’s request for limited disclosure of volume two to congressional leaders while withholding it from the public.
“Release of Volume II, even on a limited basis as promised by the United States, risks irreversibly and substantially impairing the legal rights of Defendants in this criminal proceeding,” Cannon wrote. “The Court is not willing to make that gamble on the basis of generalized interest by members of Congress, at least not without full briefing and a hearing on the subject.”
The judge noted that a portion of the hearing may need to be conducted under seal to prevent parts of volume two from being disseminated to the public.
However, Cannon agreed with the DOJ’s position that volume one contained no substantive references to the defendants or the classified documents case. Noting that there was “insufficient basis” to restrict the public release of volume one, Cannon cleared the way for its public release.
After Trump won the presidential election, Smith moved to dismiss the classified documents case and the election interference case against Trump, citing DOJ rules around not prosecuting presidents. The motions to dismiss were made “without prejudice,” meaning charges could be refiled after Trump finishes his second term as president. However, the statute of limitations and the prospect of Trump pardoning himself stand in the way of potential re-prosecution.
Federal law requires special counsels to prepare a final report outlining their prosecution decisions and submit it to the attorney general, who has the discretion to determine whether the report will be made public.
Attorney General Merrick Garland said last week that both volumes of Smith’s final report would be made public when the courts give it the green light.
Smith, who was appointed by Garland to investigate Trump in the two cases—election interference and classified documents—resigned from the DOJ on Jan. 10. Smith’s resignation marks the end of his criminal prosecutions of Trump over the past two years or so.
Trump has denied wrongdoing in the cases has repeatedly described the prosecutions as politically motivated.
END
GARBAGE!!
“Unprecedented Criminal Effort” – DOJ Releases Jack Smith’s Report On Trump ‘Election Interference’
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 07:15 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) officials have released part of former special counsel Jack Smith’s report about President-elect Donald Trump.
Part one of Smith’s report was made public early on Jan. 14 (1am), after U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon allowed its release.
In the report, Smith – who recently resigned – said that he believes the evidence against Trump was strong enough to yield a conviction, even though the DOJ dropped its prosecutions of the president-elect.
“As alleged in the original and superseding indictments, substantial evidence demonstrates that Mr. Trump then engaged in an unprecedented criminal effort to overturn the legitimate results of the election in order to retain power,” Smith wrote.
An indictment against Trump charged him with multiple federal crimes, including conspiring to obstruct the certification of the 2020 presidential election.
After the charges were brought, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that presidents are immune from prosecution for official conduct.
Smith’s team subsequently reanalyzed the evidence it had gathered.
“Given the Supreme Court’s ruling, the Office reevaluated the evidence and assessed whether Mr. Trump’s non-immune conduct—either his private conduct as a candidate or official conduct for which the Office could rebut the presumption of immunity—violated federal law,” Smith wrote in the newly released report.
“The Office concluded that it did. After doing so, the Office sought, and a new grand jury issued, a superseding indictment with identical charges but based only on conduct that was not immune because it was either unofficial or any presumptive immunity could be rebutted.”
Part two of the report is being kept back, at least for now, as Trump’s co-defendants in the case fight its release on grounds such as Smith being found to be unconstitutionally appointed.
Smith said in the report that Trump sought to defraud the United States and obstruct the certification of electoral votes in part by conspiring with others to send alternate slates of electors to Washington.
After Trump won the 2024 election, consistent with the DOJ’s interpretation that the U.S. Constitution prohibits prosecution of a sitting president, the DOJ dropped the charges against Trump.
“The Department’s view that the Constitution prohibits the continued indictment and prosecution of a President is categorical and does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the Government’s proof, or the merits of the prosecution, which the Office stands fully behind,” Smith said in the report.
“Indeed, but for Mr. Trump’s election and imminent return to the Presidency, the Office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial.”
Trump’s lawyers said in a recent letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland that the DOJ’s actions represented a “complete exoneration” of their client.
Trump wrote on his Truth Social website early Tuesday that Smith “was unable to successfully prosecute the Political Opponent of his ‘boss’ … so he ends up writing yet another ’Report.’”
“THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN!!!” Trump added later.
Smith, who was appointed by Garland, said in the report that the decision to prosecute Trump was solely his and refuted any allegations to the contrary.
“Nobody within the Department of Justice ever sought to interfere with, or improperly influence, my prosecutorial decision making. The regulations under which I was appointed provided you with the authority to countermand my decisions, 28 C.F.R. § 600.7, but you did not do so,” Smith said.
“Nor did you, the Deputy Attorney General, or members of your staff ever attempt to improperly influence my decision as to whether to bring charges against Mr. Trump. And to all who know me well, the claim from Mr. Trump that my decisions as a prosecutor were influenced or directed by the Biden administration or other political actors is, in a word, laughable.”
Smith also defended prosecuting Trump, arguing that doing so served federal interests, including the interest in applying the law equally with regards to the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
“There is a substantial federal interest in ensuring the evenhanded administration of the law with respect to accountability for the events of January 6, 2021, and the Office determined that interest would not be satisfied absent Mr. Trump’s prosecution for his role,” Smith said.
END
“Gratuitous And Wrong” – Hunter Biden Probe Special Counsel Defends Findings, Slams Pardon
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025 – 09:00 AM
The special counsel assigned to investigate Hunter Biden defended his work and criticized President Joe Biden’s pardon for his son in a final report made public days before the president is slated to leave office.
David C. Weiss rejected the president’s claims that politics had compromised the probe.
As Nathan Worcester reports for The Epoch Times, Weiss said the cases he brought against Hunter Biden resulted from “thorough, impartial investigations, not partisan politics,” noting that multiple judges’ findings aligned with that assessment.
Weiss wrote that the accusations “unfairly impugn the integrity not only of Department of Justice personnel, but all of the public servants making these difficult decisions in good faith.”
“These baseless accusations have no merit and repeating them threatens the integrity of the justice system as a whole,” Weiss wrote.
In his 27-page final report, Weiss defended what he said was the integrity of his investigations, and he also said Joe Biden’s statements were “gratuitous and wrong.”
“Other presidents have pardoned family members, but in doing so, none have taken the occasion as an opportunity to malign the public servants at the Department of Justice based solely on false accusations,” Weiss wrote.
Weiss said that the inquiries were “thorough, impartial investigations, not partisan politics.”
“Eight judges across numerous courts have rejected claims that they were the result of selective or vindictive motives,” Weiss wrote.
“Calling those rulings into question and injecting partisanship into the independent administration of the law undermines the very foundation of what makes America’s justice system fair and equitable. It erodes public confidence in an institution that [is] essential to preserving the rule of law.”
Weiss was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in 2023 after a plea deal with the younger Biden broke down.
Weiss, a Republican, was named U.S. attorney for the District of Delaware by President-elect Donald Trump in 2017. His initial investigation into Hunter Biden overlapped with the 2020 presidential election. Weiss did not disclose the investigation during the election. In December 2020, the younger Biden revealed he was under investigation.
Amid mass firings of Trump-appointed U.S. attorneys, Weiss—his probe by then public—was retained by Biden.
Weiss’s criticism in the report, which was released on Jan. 13, focused on claims made by the outgoing president in the full, unconditional pardon he issued his son for felony tax and firearm convictions on Dec. 1, 2024. That pardon extended to crimes that the younger Biden committed, or allegedly committed, as far back as Jan. 1, 2014.
At the time he was pardoned, the president’s son was on pace to be sentenced.
Special counsel David Weiss walks out of the closed-door testimony before the House Judiciary Committee in Washington on Nov. 7, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times
Here are the five key conclusions from the final report reviewed by Just the News:
- Hunter Biden broke the lawWeiss confirms unequivocally in his report that Hunter Biden broke the law, contradicting claims from President Joe Biden and some media outlets that said for years that there was no evidence the first son had done anything wrong.
- Biden traded on his family name to secure lucrative business dealsWeiss concluded Hunter Biden’s money came from “using his last name and connections to secure lucrative business opportunities” in exchange for doing “limited work,” confirming one of the key findings of the House Republican impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden that wrapped up last year.
- Evidence shows Biden cheated on taxes specifically related to Burisma incomeThe court documents show that Hunter Biden failed to report income from Burisma Holdings, the controversial Ukrainian energy firm, on his taxes, again contradicting President Biden’s claims that his son did nothing wrong: “The Defendant did not report his income from Burisma on his 2014 Form 1040,” the court documents read in one instance.
- President Biden accused of undermining the justice systemWeiss says that President Biden’s claims that the prosecutions of his son were politically motivated “undermine the public’s confidence in our criminal justice system” and “unfairly impugn[s] the integrity not only of Department of Justice personnel, but all of the public servants making these difficult decisions in good faith.”
- President Biden accused of using a pardon to try to rewrite historyWeiss said that President Biden’s pardon of his son, Hunter, was an attempt to rewrite history: “The Constitution provides the President with broad authority to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, but nowhere does the Constitution give the President the authority to rewrite history.”
Weiss’s criticism in the report, which was released on Jan. 13, focused on claims made by the outgoing president in the full, unconditional pardon he issued his son for felony tax and firearm convictions on Dec. 1, 2024. That pardon extended to crimes that the younger Biden committed, or allegedly committed, as far back as Jan. 1, 2014.
“No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son—and that is wrong,” Biden’s pardon states.
“In trying to break Hunter, they’ve tried to break me—and there’s no reason to believe it will stop here. Enough is enough,” Biden continued, later stating that “raw politics” led to an unjust outcome.
Weiss’s report notes that the president had previously vowed not to pardon his son.
“Only after Mr. Biden’s guilt had been fully and fairly adjudicated did the President claim that this prosecution was the result of ‘raw politics,’” the report states.
“Politicians who attack the decisions of career prosecutors as politically motivated when they disagree with the outcome of a case undermine the public’s confidence in our criminal justice system.”
The Epoch Times has reached out to the White House for comment.
END
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY
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