JAN 16//CEASEFIRE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS FINALLY ANNOUNCED//GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $24.10 TO $2718.00 /SILVER ROSE BY $0.23 TO $30.83/PLATINUM CLOSED UP $2.35 TO $938.10 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $19.10 TO $944.15//L.A. VIGILANTES GUARD THEIR PROPERTIES AGAINST MIGRANT LOOTERS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES/ISRAEL VS HOUTHIS//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLER//CANADA VS CAPITAL GAINS TAX/ USA NEWS JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE//RETAIL SALES DISAPPOINT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 592 1 190 H BMO CAPITAL 166 323 C HSBC 315 332 H STANDARD CHARTE 120 363 C WELLS FARGO SEC 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 311 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 49 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 333 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 419 661 C JP MORGAN 3 377 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 14 30 709 C BARCLAYS 13 730 C PTG DIVISION SG 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 22 50 905 C ADM 21 2
TOTAL: 1,420 1,420
JPMorgan stopped 377/1420
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JANUARY/2024. CONTRACT: 1420 NOTICES FOR 142,000 OZ 4.416 TONNES
total notices so far: 10,529 contracts for 1,052,900 Oz (32.750 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY
SILVER NOTICES: 14 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 700,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1854 for 9.270 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $24.10 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.23 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 464.863 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED2852CONTRACTS TO 153,216 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE OF $0,79 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 3462 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BULLION BANKS. THEY FAILED MISERABLY WITH WEDNESDAY PRICING WITH ZERO LONGS BEING KNOCKED OFF. DERIVATIVE LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH ANOTHER NEW MASSIVE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 1032 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER 34.00 DOLLAR. THE FRONT MONTH OF FEB HAS A HUGE 80 CENT CONTAGO TO JANUARY AS THE CROOKS NEED TO PAY A HUGE PRICE AS A SHORT (AND THUS SUPPLIER TO) THIS UPCOMING FEB CONTRACT MONTH. WE HAD A STRONG 610 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS HUMONGOUS 1032 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 3462 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY’S COMEX SESSION
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH YESTERDAY’S FAILED RAID.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A HUMONGOUS 1032 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH OUR RAID ON JANUARY 13. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.79 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4374 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A 610 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 70,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING RISES TO 9.720 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 9.720 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// A STRONG 610 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1032 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 902 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 DAYS, total 6749 contracts: OR 33.745 MILLION OZ (675 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 33.745 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 33.745 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2862 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX/WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 610 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 610 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 8.110 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE,FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 70,000 OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JAN REMAINS AT 9.720 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE 1. A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3462B OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS 1032 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. ZERO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1032) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, NO DOUBT PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION.
WE HAD 14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 70,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9568 OI CONTRACTS TO 536,035 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 1742 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (9568 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $24.35 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 894 CONTRACTS OR 89,400 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD THE FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS TOTALLING 1700 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ (5.28775 TONNES) ISSUED JAN 6/2025 TO WHICH WE ADD JAN 8 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 150 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES . NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 33.770 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) + 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR EQUALS 38.770 TONNES
/NEW STANDING 35.989 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $24.35 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 17,863 OI CONTRACTS (55.87 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8395 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 536,035
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,863 CONTRACTS WITH 9568 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8395 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,863 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED AND CRIMINAL 2034 CONTRACTS ISSUED.(THIS ENDS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUED BY THE CME.) WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. MORE MONSTER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S WAS NEEDED FOR REPLENISHMENT TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING (FUTURE RAIDS). WE WILL NO DOUBT SEE ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE CROOKS DEFEND $2700 GOLD.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8395 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 9568 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,863 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 894 CONTRACTS OR 89,400 OZ (2.7807 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK JAN 8 OF .4665 TONNES TOGETHER WITH OUR EARLIER EX FOR RISK OF 5.2867 TONNES//// NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO:
33.019 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY +
5.753 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON OUR TWO OCCASIONS IN JANUARY (6TH AND 8TH )
EQUALS: 38.770 TONNES
//NEW STANDING JAN: 38.7700 TONNES WHICH I BELIEVE IS THE HIGHEST EVER GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE TUESDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD A 1) $24.35 PRICE GAIN, AND 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN OF 17,863 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2034 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,400 CONTRACTS OF 4,640,000 OZ OR 144.32 TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4640 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 144.32 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 144.32 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 144.32 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY SMALL THIS MONTH AND MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2862 CONTRACTS OI TO 153,216 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 610 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 610 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 610 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2862 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 610 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3462 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS A HUGE 17,31 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.79 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.91 PTS OR 0.28%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 236.82 PTS OR 1.23%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 128.02 OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.33%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3323 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3478// Oil UP TO 79L69 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.58 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING A
WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 80.19 PTS OR 2.54%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.64 PTS OR 1.83%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 716.10 O 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.47%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3312 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.3491// Oil DOWN TO 78,54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING A
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED9568 CONTRACTS TO 536,035 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $24.35 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AS WE HAD ALSO, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (8395) . THE CME ISSUED ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,863 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED TRADING AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK WITH OUR MAMMOTH T.A.S. ISSUANCES. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. WE FINISHED WITH OUR HUGE 30,000+ ISSUANCE WITH A STRONG 2034 CONTRACT ANNOUCEMENT (THURSDAY MORNING).THIS ENDS AT 5 THE CONSECUTIVE 30,000 PLUS ISSUANCE. AS I PROMISED YESTERDAY: THIS ” SHOULD END THEIR MEGA ISSUANCE AS I HAVE NEVER SEEN 6 CONSECUTIVE MEGA ISSUANCES BEFORE. ” IT IS AMAZING THE CROOKS DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST FRIDAY’S 197 , 199, 2001, 202, 203 , 204 AND 205 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP IS COMING INTO OFFICE IN 2 TRADING DAYS. TRUMP WOULD PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FOUND OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THEN THIS WEEK, IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD. AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING SESSION TODAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 8395 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /FEB 8395 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8395 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 17,863 CONTRACTS IN THAT 8395 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,318 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $24.35 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 2034 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, THE FED(FRBNY) CALLED FOR THE FED-MOBILE TO BE USED TO ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER RAID BEFORE THE TRUMP-MOBILE TAKES OFFICE.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S.,THE FED WAS EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WAS EVIDENT IN JAN 6 COMEX TRADING//RAID AND THEN AGAIN WITH TUESDAY’S FAILED ATTEMPT AT A RAID ON GOLD PRICE. HOWEVER NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 39,913 T.A.S CONTRACTS YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE. ALL OF THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WILL BE/WERE USED TO THWART GOLD TRADING ESPECIALLY BEFORE TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE FED MUST REDUCE ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT OF 82 TONNES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. (WHICH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST)
STANDING FOR GOLD FOR THE PAST 4 PLUS YEARS:
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (38.770 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE JAN DELIVERY MONTH AND I BELIEVE THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR A JANUARY.
JANUARY: 10.1331 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 50 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
January 2025: 33.017 TONNES + 5.753 EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 38.770 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $24.35/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY AS THEY WERE TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S RISE AND HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES BUT TO NO AVAIL.
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER TRADING AND NOW JANUARY!!
47 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 14.6836 TONNES. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS JANUARY MONTH
WE NOW BEGIN OUR NEW MONTH OF JANUARY AND LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR JANUARY: 5.7533 TONNES. THANKFULLY THEY ISSUED 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST NIGHT.
TOTAL DELIVERIES JANUARY TRADING
WE HAVE GAINED A MONSTER TOTAL OF 55.87 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (10.133TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 894 CONTRACTS OR 89400 OZ (2.034TONNES) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5.7533 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE WHERE THE BUYERS ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY.(ISSUED JAN 6/2025 AND JAN 8).. THIS IS ,OF COURSE, AGAINST ALL RULES OF THE COMEX AS IT IS MEANT TO DECEIVE US. IT IS TOTALLY INSANE FOR A BUYER TO ASSUME RISK OF DELIVERY.
NEW STANDING FOR JAN: 33.017 TONNES + 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 38.770 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH) A NORMAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR A JANUARY IN EARLIER TIMES HAS BEEN GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 TONNE OF GOLD. HOWEVER THESE PAST 4 YEARS QUEUE JUMPING HAS BEEN VERY PRONOUNCED AND THUS STANDING INCREASES DRAMATICALLY.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $24.35
WE HAD 1742 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,863 CONTRACTS OR 1,786300 OZ (55.87 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 228,729 contracts: fair ////nobody wishes to play with the crooks
total 172,144.976 oz 5.354 tonnes customer total dealer and customer deposit: 10.679 tonnes
withdrawals: 0
adjustments:2/customer to dealer
i) Out of Manfra 30,563.499 oz ii) Out of JPMorgan 160,690..698 oz(4998 kilobars)
total customer to dealer: 191,254.197 oz or 5.94 tonnes
thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JAN: we have an oi of 1506 contracts having LOST 401 contracts. We had a strong 1295 contract issuance on WEDNESDAY. Thus ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP (GAIN) of 894 contracts on our two exchanges. (89400 oz or 2.7807 tonnes). THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH LONDON VAULTS RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SUPPLY THEM.
FEBRUARY LOST ONLY 254 CONTRACTS TO 282,194 AS IT BEGINS ITS COUNTDOWN BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE (JAN 31.2025) EXPECT A WOPPER OF A FEB DELIVERY MONTH AS THE FRONT MONTH IS NOT DECLINING MUCH.
MARCH HAD A GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS UP TO 6523
APRIL HAD A GAIN OF 8067CONTRACTS UP TO 171,993 CONTRACTS AS MANY ARE REFUSING TO ROLL TO JUNE.
We had 1420 contracts filed for today representing 14200 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 3 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1420 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 377 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JAN /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,529 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(1506 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1420 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,061,500 OZ OR 33.019 TONNES. to which we add those criminal exchange for risk issuance of .4665 TONNES (JAN 8) AND 5.28775 tonnes/JAN 6//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 5.753 TONNES. THUS NEW STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX FOR JAN IS 30.236 TONNES PLUS 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 38.770 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,529 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (1506 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1420 x 100 oz which equals 1,061,500 oz (33.017 TONNES) + 5.753 tonnes ex for risk ( JAN 6 AND 8TH) = 38.770 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.: 38.770 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR AND I BELIEVE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A JANUARY.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 23,617,539.490 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,951,870.913 or 340.649 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 12,665,668.577 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,824,743 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 274.486 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.511 million oz
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 16. 2025
INITIAL
//2025// THE JAN 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
a) Out of Delaware: 1972.400 oz ii) Out of HSBC 50,347.65 total 52,320.05 oz
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
101,924.54 oz Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
i) Into Brinks 599,733.190 oz ii) Into CNT 1866.600 oz
total 601,599.496 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
14 CONTRACT(S) (70,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
90 contracts (0.450 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1854 Contracts (9.270 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
deposits:2
i) Into Brinks 599,733.190 oz ii) Into CNT 1866.600 oz
total 601,599.496 oz
WITHDRAWALS 0
total withdrawal: 0 oz
ADJUSTMENT 1 customer to dealer CNT
i) 55,210.970 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.536million oz/329.401million or 41.28%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.859 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 329.401 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN /2024 OI: 104 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD A 32 CONTRACT ISSUANCE ON WEDNESDAY. THUS WE GAINED 14 CONTRACTS, THAT IS WE HAD A 14 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 70,000 OZ
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 996
MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 2750 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,175. THE FRONT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH ALSO IS NOT DECLINGING MUCH AND WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A HUMDINGER OF A DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 14 for 70,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 55,151 poor//
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1854x 5,000 oz = 9.270 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (104) and the number of notices served upon today (14)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN 2025 contract month: 1854 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN(104) minus number of notices served upon today (14)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JAN contract month equating to 9.720 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 9.720 million oz.
There are 71.859 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
JAN 16 WITH GOLD UP $24.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 15 WITH GOLD UP $24.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 14 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.53 TONNES
JAN 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES
JAN 10 WITH GOLD UP $17.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 9 WITH GOLD UP $13.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 8 WITH GOLD UP $5.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 2 WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 31 WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES
DEC 26 WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 24 WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES
DEC 20 WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES
DEC 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES
DEC 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 872,52 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JAN 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ
JAN 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.79 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.745 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ
JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.228 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.218 MILLION OZ
JAN 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.637 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.990 MILLION OZ
JAN 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ
DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ
DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ
DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ
DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 460.218 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
END
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JOHN RUBINO
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
END
ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST MUST VIEW…YOUTUBE/KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT 205
/LIVE FROM THE VAULT 205
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY
END
end
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.91 PTS OR 0.28%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 236.82 PTS OR 1.23%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 128.02 OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.33%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3323 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3478// Oil UP TO 79L69 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.58 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING A
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3323
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3478
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 8.91 PTS OR 0.26%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 236.82 PTS OR 1.23%
2. Nikkei closed UP 128.02 OR 0.33%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 109.20 EURO FALLS TO 1.0255 DOWN 30 BASIS PTS HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.204 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.26…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.565 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.710 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.234
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.373
3j Gold at $2714.10 /Silver at: 30.74 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 11/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 102.61
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.26 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.204% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9132 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9325 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.674 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.911. UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.314 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.49…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.789 UP 6 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.465 UP 5 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.176 UP 3 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise For Second Day After Post-CPI Surge As Earnings Come In Hot
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 07:08 AM
US equity futures are higher led by Tech one day after a powerful burst higher in stocks following a weaker than expected CPI. As of 7:00am. S&P futures are up 0.2% extending on Wednesday’s 1.8% rally, the best day since the November election; Nasdaq futures rise 0.5%, led by NVDA (+1.5%) and AAPL (+0.6%) after stellar earnings by TSMC and a boost to the company’s 2025 CapEx spending budget. Europe’s Stoxx 600 climbed for a third day, with luxury goods maker Richemont soaring 18% after it reported a jump in jewelry sales. Its results lifted an index of European luxury stocks by the most since March 2022. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher after yesterday’s rally; USD is higher. On Commodities, base metals rallied ahead of major China data release tonight. Today, key macro catalysts are Retail Sales (analysts expect a 0.6% MoM print , down from 0.7% prior while the Control Group is expected to print unchanged at 0.4%) and banks earnings (MS and BAC).
Thursday’s gains come after the latest core CPI print came in at 0.2%, missing expectations and marking the first step down in six months. The inflation print has helped calm investor fears that the US economy could run too hot, keeping inflation and Treasury yields higher for longer, and possibly forcing the Fed to reverse course on rate cuts.
“Markets had been hit by a ‘Goldilocks-is-gone’ narrative for about a month, but it seems the US inflation data has set us back on course,” said Francois Rimeu, a strategist at Credit Mutuel Asset Management in Paris.
Rimeu sees no real reason for market sentiment to be derailed, noting “global and US growth are holding, the euro zone is sluggish but growing, fiscal stimulus policies are broadly unchallenged and the upcoming earnings season is looking OK.”
Even so, the renewed appetite for risk will be tested in coming days, as the Fed and the Bank of Japan hand down policy decisions, and President-elect Donald Trump takes office. US initial jobless claims and retail sales figures due later Thursday will provide a broader picture of the health of the economy, with economists forecasting retail sales to have slowed slightly last month.
“What we want to see is pretty much a Goldilocks scenario of decent growth in the US but no strong re-acceleration,” said Amelie Derambure, a portfolio manager at Amundi Asset Management. “What we don’t want is something too crazy on the retail sales that would put pressure on the Fed.” Investors are also watching the US earnings season unfold, with reports due from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, after JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and others posted blockbuster earnings on Wednesday.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 extended on Wednesday’s gains, rising 0.6%, lifted by the luxury and technology sectors. A double-digit jump in Richemont’s sales reignited optimism for the luxury sector, driving the sector higher. An upbeat outlook by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company also boosted sentiment, with ASML Holding rising as much as 4.9%. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
Richemont shares jump as much as 18%, their best day since Nov. 2022, after the Swiss luxury giant posted a stellar third-quarter report thanks to demand for its high-end jewelry, especially over the holiday season
Luxury stocks soar after Richemont’s sales, with LVMH gaining as much as 8.6% and Gucci owner Kering rising as much as 9.6%
Zalando shares jump as much as 16%, after the online fashion retailer’s financial performance for the year exceeded its guidance
Trustpilot shares jump as much as 16.6%, after the consumer review platform said annual adjusted Ebitda will come in ahead of expectations
European Chip-Tool stocks rally on Thursday after TSMC set its capital expenditure target for the year well ahead of analyst estimates, with ASML up 3.4% and BE Semiconductor up as much as 7.1%
Deliveroo shares rise as much as 8.3% after the food delivery firm reported stronger-than-expected orders in the core UK market, offsetting a weaker international segment that’s dragged by competition from Meituan in Hong Kong
Vaisala Jumps shares gain as much as 9.2%, the most since July, after the Finnish measurement technology firm reported preliminary FY24 results, which Inderes described as “clearly stronger than market expectations.”
Wise shares drop as much as 9.5%, after the money-transfer firm said reported income growth will come in at the lower-end of its guidance range due to foreign-exchange headwinds
Verbio shares drop as much as 25% to their lowest value since May 2020 after the German biofuel maker issued a profit warning ahead of its full-year results, reducing its Ebitda forecast due to “unforeseen technical quality problems.”
Siemens Energy shares fall as much as 2.6% after Swedish wind farm Bjornberget discovered damage to a turbine blade supplied by the company
Earlier, Asian stocks advanced for a third day of gains, fueled by technology shares after softer-than-expected US core inflation bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.2% Thursday, the most in over three weeks. Stocks were in the green across most of the region. Taiwan led gains among Asian markets, with chipmaker TSMC providing the biggest boost after a stellar earnings report.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index edged higher, halting a two-day losing streak. The latest lackluster GDP data from Britain underscored the divergence between the US economy and its peers in the developed world, knocking the pound lower against the greenback. The yen firmed, however, on a report that BOJ officials see a good chance of a rate increase next week.
In rates, 10Y TSY yields, which slid 10 basis points after the data, held steady on Thursday as traders fully priced a Fed rate reduction by July, reinstating bets that had been dashed by stronger-than-expected December jobs numbers.
In commodities, there has been subdued trade in the crude complex as prices take a breather from yesterday’s surge. Prices this morning have been trundling lower despite the constructive risk tone as DXY attempts to regain some composure and against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitics. Brent Mar trades in an $81.75-82.57/bbl range. There is also mixed trade in the precious metals complex with spot gold and silver continuing to benefit from the US CPI and mixed noise surrounding the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Spot gold topped $2,700/oz and currently sits within a USD 2,690-2,706/oz range.
Looking to the day ahead, US data releases include retail sales for November and the weekly initial jobless claims. We also got the UK GDP reading for November which came in weaker than expected and sent the pound sliding. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s account of their December meeting, and hear from the ECB’s Panetta. Earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Finally in the political sphere, the US Senate will hold Scott Bessent’s nomination hearing to become Treasury Secretary.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 6,000.00
MXAP up 1.0% to 178.93
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 563.92
Nikkei up 0.3% to 38,572.60
Topix little changed at 2,688.31
Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 19,522.89
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,236.03
Sensex up 0.4% to 77,006.93
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 8,326.96
Kospi up 1.2% to 2,527.49
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 518.07
German 10Y yield up 1 bp at 2.58%
Euro little changed at $1.0294
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $81.82/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,704.37
US Dollar Index little changed at 109.07
Top Overnight News
US Commerce Department announces USD 1.5bn in final awards to support next generation of US semiconductor advanced packaging.
US President Biden said in his farewell address that he wishes the Trump administration success and is concerned about a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a few wealthy people, while he added that excessive wealth threatens democracy. Biden is also concerned about the tech industrial complex and said Americans are buried in disinformation and free press is crumbling. Furthermore, he said AI needs safeguards and that they must make AI safe and trustworthy, as well as noted that America must lead on AI, not China.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said a duplicative agency doesn’t seem like a good step to save money for taxpayers when asked about Trump’s plan for an ‘external revenue service’, while she said Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs will raise costs for US goods and services.
US Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent said in prepared remarks ahead of his Senate testimony that sanctions must be part of a whole government approach, and they must ensure the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. Bessent also stated that the US must secure supply chains vulnerable to strategic competitors and the US must carefully deploy sanctions as part of a government-wide approach to address national security requirements. Furthermore, he said Trump has a generational opportunity to unleash a ‘new economic golden age’ with more jobs, wealth, and prosperity for Americans.
US House Speaker Johnson said one bill strategy makes sense, while he added that they will pass the budget and target by late February.
Israel Says New Demands by Hamas Casting Doubt on Gaza Deal
Oil Holds Gain as IEA Warns on Russia Curbs and Stockpiles Ebb
BOJ Is Said to See Good Chance of January Hike Barring US Shock
Trump Fuels Hedge Fund Bets on Stocks Under Attack by GOP
TSMC’s Upbeat Outlook Fuels Hopes for 2025 AI Spending
Israel and Hamas Reach a Deal to Pause 15-Month-Long War in Gaza
Short Seller Nate Anderson Says He’s Disbanding Hindenburg
Investors Seek $5 Billion for Basketball League to Rival NBA
Bitcoin Flirts With $100,000 Level as Angst Over Fed Path Eases
China Is Facing Longest Deflation Streak Since Mao Era in 1960s
Tencent Stake in Skydance-Paramount Draws Lawmaker Scrutiny
China Hackers Broke Into 400-Plus Treasury PCs, Report Says
US to Finalize Billions in Funding for Rivian, Plug Before Trump
Universal Plans US Share Sale for Pershing Square Stake
FTC, States Sue Deere Over Alleged Tractor-Repair Monopoly
Bessent to Say Dollar’s Global Status Is Critical to US Economy
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St in the aftermath of the soft-leaning US CPI data which boosted Fed rate cut bets and saw money market pricing of cuts for this year return to around pre-NFP levels. ASX 200 advanced at the open with outperformance in tech and financials although miners lagged with Rio Tinto shares indecisive after its quarterly update. Nikkei 225 gained but was well off today’s best levels amid a firmer currency and the risk of a potential BoJ rate hike next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially boosted after the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts and with analysts suggesting the PBoC could lower RRR ahead of the Chinese New Year later this month, although the gains in the mainland were then pared amid lingering trade frictions after the US strengthened restrictions on advanced computing semiconductors to prevent diversion to China. Indices then resumed to the upside heading into the European open.
Top Asian News
China Commerce Ministry says will initiate anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into US subsidies in its chip industry at Chinese Mature Node chip industry’s request.
China’s NDRC will raise retail gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 340/t and CNY 325/t respectively, effective January 17th.
PBoC might cut RRR before the Lunar New Year this month, according to analysts cited by Shanghai Securities News.
BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated they will raise the policy rate this year if economic and price conditions continue to improve, while he added how to proceed with monetary policy adjustment will depend on economic, price, and financial conditions at the time. Ueda also commented that the new US administration’s policy outlook and domestic wage negotiations are key factors in the policy decision, as well as repeated that they will debate at next week’s meeting whether to hike rates.
BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump’s inauguration, according to Bloomberg citing several unnamed people.
Reuters poll showed nearly two-thirds of 32 economists expect the BoJ to hike rates at next week’s meeting with 59 of 61 expecting the key rate to be at 0.50% by end-March, while two-thirds of 21 economists expect Japanese authorities to intervene in FX if yen weakens to 165 vs the dollar and the Japan rate of pay increase in labour talks this year is seen at 4.75% (prev. 4.70% in December poll).
BoK maintained its base rate at 3.0% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin dissented and wanted a cut, while it announced to expand the cap on the temporary special loan for small to medium businesses to KRW 14tln. BoK said it will determine the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts to mitigate downside risks to economic growth, as well as noted that South Korean consumption weakened, construction investment has been sluggish and economic growth is to slow. BoK Governor Rhee said the need for further cuts is higher now that downside risks to economic growth have heightened and all board members said a rate cut would be necessary but took consideration of dollar-won FX rates fluctuating due to political turmoil. Rhee also stated that six board members said they are open to rate cuts in the three-month ahead window, while Rhee noted it would be appropriate to wait until domestic political turmoil stabilises, and some certainty comes from the new US administration before changing policies. Furthermore, Rhee said Thursday’s rate decision was not because dollar-won rates are at a certain level, but because political uncertainties have been impacting the FX rates.
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) opened on a strong footing, and have remained at session highs throughout the European morning – continuing the momentum seen in APAC trade overnight, and as sentiment is lifted following strong Luxury/Tech updates. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with sentiment lifted by positive catalysts within the Luxury and Tech industries. Starting with Luxury; Richemont (+15%) soars after it reported extremely strong Q3 results, lifting heavyweight LVMH (+9.1%). As for Tech; chip-giants such ASML (+3.1%) and ASM International (+3.7%) both gain today, ollowing strong TSMC results (TSM +5% in pre-mkt trade).
Top European News
ECB’s Centeno said the interest rate will continue on a trajectory ideally towards values close to 2%.
FX
USD is mixed vs. peers after being sold yesterday in the wake of soft CPI metrics which saw Fed easing expectations return to pre-NFP levels. For today’s docket, attention will be on December retail sales data and weekly claims figures. Elsewhere, attention will be on incoming Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Senate confirmation hearing which is expected to see him questioned on the USD and tariff policy. Pre-prepared remarks have stressed the role of the USD as the world’s reserve currency. DXY is just about holding above the 109 mark and within yesterday’s 108.06-109.38 range.
EUR is trivially softer vs. the USD after fading some fleeting reprieve provided by an upward revision to M/M German CPI for December. Today’s EZ-docket includes the minutes from the December meeting which saw the Bank pull the trigger on a 25bps rate cut. The account will be scanned for any views of GC members that could suggest a slowdown in the ECB’s rate cutting cycle.
JPY is the best performer across the majors as expectations of a BoJ hike next week continue to ramp up. In terms of the latest updates, source reporting via Bloomberg noted that the BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY has made a fresh low for the year at 155.22 with the next downside levels coming via the 155 mark and the 50DMA at 154.61.
GBP is towards the bottom of the G10 leaderboard following a softer-than-expected outturn for UK GDP; M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (prev. -0.1%). In response to the data, Pantheon Macro lowered its Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.0% Q/Q from 0.1% previously; also cites the recent outturns for UK PMI metrics. Cable has just slipped below the 1.22 mark but sits within yesterday’s 1.2154-1.2306 range.
Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD after a recent run of three consecutive sessions of gains. Macro focus for AUD has been on the overnight jobs data, which, although saw a larger-than-expected level of employment change, was largely driven by part-time roles and accompanied by an uptick in the unemployment rate. Accordingly, AUD is a touch softer with a 25bps cut fully priced by April.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1881 vs exp. 7.3247 (prev. 7.1883).
Fixed Income
USTs are currently trading in-line with peers ahead of another busy data docket with Retail Sales and weekly Claims due before Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent’s confirmation hearing and the announcement for 20yr supply. At a 108-05 trough with yields firmer across the curve, the short end leading and as such the curve itself is flattening.
Gilts opened lower by 10 ticks, despite cooler-than-expected GDP data for November. Downside which was likely a function of three factors: 1) Weaker economic performance reduces the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom and as such is a Gilt negative. 2) An upward revision to the German Final CPI for December. 3) General fixed income pressure on account of the constructive European open. Opened at the 90.91 mark and has since slipped to a 90.76 trough.
Bunds are softer hit early doors on the same three factors as Gilts. In terms of the German metric, Final CPI M/M was revised up slightly and seemingly almost exclusively as a function of travel prices, with package holidays +9.1%, and rail up 4.2% or 3.0% for long- and short-distance options. Currently, in proximity to the 131.15 session low with support at the figure and then numerous recent lows between 130.70-28, the latter being the contract trough.
Subdued trade in the crude complex as prices take a breather from yesterday’s surge. Prices this morning have been trundling lower despite the constructive risk tone as DXY attempts to regain some composure and against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitics. Brent Mar trades in an 81.75-82.57/bbl parameter.
Mixed trade in the precious metals complex with spot gold and silver continuing to benefit from the US CPI and mixed noise surrounding the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Spot gold topped USD 2,700/oz and currently sits within a USD 2,690-2,706/oz range.
Firmer across the board as the base metals complex continues to cheer the softer-than-expected US CPI alongside the constructive risk tone, which brought market expectations for Fed rate cuts back to pre-NFP levels.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“Trump administration’s national security adviser: We made it clear to the Israelis that if Hamas does not abide by the agreement, we will be with them in the war”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas Official says they are committed to the ceasefire agreement announced by the mediators, via Al Arabiya.
Israeli Prime Minister’s Office: “Israel will not set a date for a cabinet and government meeting until the mediators announce that Hamas has approved all the details of the agreement.”, according to journalist Stein. “Hamas withdraws from the explicit understandings agreed with the mediators and with Israel in a last-minute blackmail attempt.”
Israel’s PM office says Hamas is reneging on the understandings and creating a last-minute crisis that prevents an agreement, according to N12 News.
Israel-Hamas deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women, children and men over 50, while the total number of Palestinians released will depend on the hostages released and could be between 990-1,650. Furthermore, negotiations over the second phase of the agreement will start by the 16th day of phase one and is expected to include the release of all remaining hostages.
Israeli PM Netanyahu thanked US President-elect Trump for help in the Gaza deal and they agreed to meet in Washington soon, while he also spoke with US President Biden and thanked him for help in the hostages deal. However, it was separately reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said they are working on the final details of a Gaza agreement, according to AP. Yedioth Ahronoth also reported that the Israeli negotiating team will remain in Doha to complete talks, according to Asharq News.
Israel reportedly conducted violent raids on Gaza City, according to Al Arabiya.
Geopolitics: Uraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky sees a higher likelihood for the war to end in 2025.
UK and Ukraine are to sign a historic partnership as UK PM Starmer travels to Ukraine to meet President Zelensky, according to Downing Street.
Russian Defence Ministry said it successfully hit a large underground gas storage area in Stryi in western Ukraine, while it added that attacks on energy infrastructure were responses to Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons on the Krasnodar region and TurkStream pipeline.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%
Dec. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
Dec. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
08:30: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 201,000
Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.87m
08:30: Dec. Import Price Index YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 1.3%
Dec. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%
Dec. Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
Dec. Export Price Index YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 0.8%
08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -5.0, prior -16.4, revised -10.9
10:00: Nov. Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
10:00: Jan. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 45, prior 46
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Wherever you were around the world yesterday, I’m sure you could hear the huge collective sigh of relief from financial markets as downside inflation surprises from the US and the UK allowed us to step back from the recent one-way trade on inflation and bond yields. In turn, this triggered a massive bond rally, which saw the 10yr Treasury yield (-13.9bps) post its biggest decline since August, whilst 10yr gilt yields (-15.9bps) saw their biggest decline since December 2023. But the rally wasn’t just isolated to bond markets, as a strong set of earnings releases added to the upbeat tone. So with all said and done, the S&P 500 (+1.83%) posted its strongest daily performance since it reacted to Trump’s victory in early November, moving back into positive territory for 2025. We’ll start with the US CPI release, as that really was the main swing factor notwithstanding the earlier global boost from lower UK CPI numbers. For markets, the main headline was that core US CPI fell to a monthly +0.2% pace in December (vs. +0.3% expected), so the year-on-year rate ticked down a tenth to +3.2%. Although in a trillion dollar plus sliding doors moment, it was interesting the YoY core inflation was 0.002 percentage points away from staying at 3.3% as it came in at 3.248%.
However the +0.2% December number (+0.225% unrounded) followed four consecutive months with a core CPI reading of +0.3%, so this led to excitement that the Fed would perhaps feel more confident cutting rates. Indeed, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was up +9.8bps on the day to 39bps. And Treasury yields plummeted across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-10.3bps) down to 4.26%, and the 30yr yield (-9.5bps) down to 4.88%. For context though 2, 5, 10 and 30 year yields are still +2.2bps, +6.5bps, +8.4bps and +9.8bps YTD respectively.
However, for all the market excitement yesterday, it wasn’t actually a great inflation report by several measures. In fact, the headline CPI print was actually at a 10-month high of +0.39%, and it didn’t see a downside surprise like the core print. Moreover, there are growing signs that this stickiness isn’t just a blip, as the 3m annualised rate of CPI reached an 8-month high of +3.9%, so that’s not where the Fed would normally be comfortable cutting rates. Plus it’s worth bearing in mind that this report is covering December, and we’re soon about to face the potential impact from tariffs, whilst Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+1.40%) just hit its highest level since January 2023. Henry put out a note yesterday on how several global inflation risks are coalescing as we move past the new year.
Fed officials welcomed the inflation print but remained cautious on the path ahead. New York Fed President Williams said that “The process of disinflation remains in train. But we are still not at our 2% goal”. Richmond Fed President Barkin similarly noted that “inflation is coming down toward target” but that “we need to be restrictive to seal the final mile”. So despite the excitement in markets, there’s no obvious reason for the Fed to cut at their next meeting in a couple of weeks, particularly when you consider the strength in last week’s jobs report, where payrolls hit a 9-month high. If they do hold, that would end a run of three consecutive rate cuts that’s delivered a total of 100bps of cuts. That said, the downside surprise in the core print meant that markets saw a H1 rate cut as more likely than they did 24 hours ago, with the probability of a rate cut by June priced at 91%, up from 68% the previous day.
When it came to equities, the decline in bond yields unleashed a significant rally, with the S&P 500 up +1.83% on the day. The rally got further support from the start of earnings season as well, with several US financials rallying after their results, including Citigroup (+6.49%), Goldman Sachs (+6.02%) and BlackRock (+5.19%). JPMorgan had to be content with a +1.97% gain. Beyond this, it was the cyclicals that led a broad move higher, with the Magnificent 7 (+3.72%) posting its strongest day in the last month. Meanwhile in Europe, there were similar gains for the STOXX 600 (+1.33%), which posted its biggest daily advance since September.
That bond rally was a global phenomenon yesterday, and here in the UK, 10yr gilt yields (-15.9bps) saw their biggest decline since December 2023. That outperformance was thanks to a downside surprise in the UK’s own CPI reading, which fell to +2.5% in December (vs. +2.6% expected). And the details were also pretty good, as core CPI surprised on the downside at +3.2% (vs. +3.4% expected), along with services CPI at +4.4% (vs. +4.8% expected). So that cemented the view that the Bank of England were still on track to cut rates at their next meeting, and investors dialled up the likelihood of a February cut from 64% to 90% by the close.
Sovereign bonds rallied across the rest of Europe too, with yields on 10yr bunds (-9.1bps), OATs (-11.7bps) and BTPs (-14.5bps) all moving lower. That was primarily driven by the downside surprises in US and UK inflation, but we also found out that the German economy contracted by -0.2% over 2024 as expected, marking a second consecutive annual contraction for the first time since 2002-03.
Elsewhere, oil prices reached 5-month highs yesterday, with Brent crude moving above $82/bbl where it remains this morning. This came amid ongoing supply concerns as EIA data showed US crude inventories at their lowest since April 2022, while the International Energy Agency warned that new US sanctions announced last week could “significantly disrupt Russian oil supply”. Yesterday’s rise in oil prices came even amid news that after 15 months of war Israel and Hamas had agreed a ceasefire deal that will come into effect on Sunday.
Overnight in Asia, the Japanese Yen has seen another strong performance after Bloomberg reported that Bank of Japan officials saw a good chance of a rate hike next week, unless the start of Trump’s presidency led to any negative surprises. So the yen is currently trading at 156.05 per US Dollar, which is its strongest in nearly a month.
Elsewhere in the region, there’s been a mixed performance across the major equity markets. In South Korea, the KOSPI (+1.06%) has posted a strong gain, as has Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.38%). But the gains haven’t been as large elsewhere, with the Hang Seng (+0.49%) and the Nikkei (+0.25%) posting smaller advances, alongside losses for the Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) and the CSI 300 (-0.36%). Looking forward, US equity futures are basically flat, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.02% this morning.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include retail sales for November and the weekly initial jobless claims. Elsewhere, we’ll also get the UK GDP reading for November. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s account of their December meeting, and hear from the ECB’s Panetta. Earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Finally in the political sphere, the US Senate will hold Scott Bessent’s nomination hearing to become Treasury Secretary.
2B) EUROPEAN REPORT
European equities lifted by Tech/Luxury updates, JPY bid as BoJ hike bets mount, US Retail Sales due – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 06:02 AM
European bourses opened on a strong footing and remain at highs, with Tech and Luxury among top performers; US futures mixed whilst NQ leads.
USD mixed vs. peers, JPY leads as BoJ hike bets mount after reports noted that BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout, following Trump’s inauguration.
Gilts gap lower despite soft GDP, USTs await data and Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent’s confirmation hearing.
Crude takes a breather while base metals cheer risk appetite.
Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index & Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, NBP Policy Announcement, Treasury Secretary nomination hearing for Scott Bessent, Comments from BoC’s Gravelle, Supply from the US, Earnings from UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, USB, PNC.
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EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) opened on a strong footing, and have remained at session highs throughout the European morning – continuing the momentum seen in APAC trade overnight, and as sentiment is lifted following strong Luxury/Tech updates.
European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with sentiment lifted by positive catalysts within the Luxury and Tech industries. Starting with Luxury; Richemont (+15%) soars after it reported extremely strong Q3 results, lifting heavyweight LVMH (+9.1%). As for Tech; chip-giants such ASML (+3.1%) and ASM International (+3.7%) both gain today, following strong TSMC results (TSM +5% in pre-mkt trade).
US equity futures are mixed, with the RTY in modest negative territory whilst the tech-heavy NQ (+0.5%) outperforms, lifted by post-earning strength in TSMC.
TSMC (2330 TT) (TWD): Net income 374.7bln (exp. 369.8bln), oper. profit 425.7bln (exp. 411.4bln), rev. 868.5bln (prelim. 868.4bln). Guides Q1 rev. USD 25.0bln-25.8bln (exp. 23.9bln), Q1 oper. margin 46.5%-48.5% (exp. 46.4%), gross margin 57%-59% (exp. 56.9%). Sees 2025 capex USD 38bln-42bln (exp. 35.15bln); 2025 revenue increasing by close to 20% in USD-terms. Strong surge in AI demand is seen continuing in 2025.
USD is mixed vs. peers after being sold yesterday in the wake of soft CPI metrics which saw Fed easing expectations return to pre-NFP levels. For today’s docket, attention will be on December retail sales data and weekly claims figures. Elsewhere, attention will be on incoming Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Senate confirmation hearing which is expected to see him questioned on the USD and tariff policy. Pre-prepared remarks have stressed the role of the USD as the world’s reserve currency. DXY is just about holding above the 109 mark and within yesterday’s 108.06-109.38 range.
EUR is trivially softer vs. the USD after fading some fleeting reprieve provided by an upward revision to M/M German CPI for December. Today’s EZ-docket includes the minutes from the December meeting which saw the Bank pull the trigger on a 25bps rate cut. The account will be scanned for any views of GC members that could suggest a slowdown in the ECB’s rate cutting cycle.
JPY is the best performer across the majors as expectations of a BoJ hike next week continue to ramp up. In terms of the latest updates, source reporting via Bloomberg noted that the BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY has made a fresh low for the year at 155.22 with the next downside levels coming via the 155 mark and the 50DMA at 154.61.
GBP is towards the bottom of the G10 leaderboard following a softer-than-expected outturn for UK GDP; M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (prev. -0.1%). In response to the data, Pantheon Macro lowered its Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.0% Q/Q from 0.1% previously; also cites the recent outturns for UK PMI metrics. Cable has just slipped below the 1.22 mark but sits within yesterday’s 1.2154-1.2306 range.
Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD after a recent run of three consecutive sessions of gains. Macro focus for AUD has been on the overnight jobs data, which, although saw a larger-than-expected level of employment change, was largely driven by part-time roles and accompanied by an uptick in the unemployment rate. Accordingly, AUD is a touch softer with a 25bps cut fully priced by April.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1881 vs exp. 7.3247 (prev. 7.1883).
USTs are currently trading in-line with peers ahead of another busy data docket with Retail Sales and weekly Claims due before Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent’s confirmation hearing and the announcement for 20yr supply. At a 108-05 trough with yields firmer across the curve, the short end leading and as such the curve itself is flattening.
Gilts opened lower by 10 ticks, despite cooler-than-expected GDP data for November. Downside which was likely a function of three factors: 1) Weaker economic performance reduces the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom and as such is a Gilt negative. 2) An upward revision to the German Final CPI for December. 3) General fixed income pressure on account of the constructive European open. Opened at the 90.91 mark and has since slipped to a 90.76 trough.
Bunds are softer hit early doors on the same three factors as Gilts. In terms of the German metric, Final CPI M/M was revised up slightly and seemingly almost exclusively as a function of travel prices, with package holidays +9.1%, and rail up 4.2% or 3.0% for long- and short-distance options. Currently, in proximity to the 131.15 session low with support at the figure and then numerous recent lows between 130.70-28, the latter being the contract trough.
Subdued trade in the crude complex as prices take a breather from yesterday’s surge. Prices this morning have been trundling lower despite the constructive risk tone as DXY attempts to regain some composure and against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitics. Brent Mar trades in an 81.75-82.57/bbl parameter.
Mixed trade in the precious metals complex with spot gold and silver continuing to benefit from the US CPI and mixed noise surrounding the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Spot gold topped USD 2,700/oz and currently sits within a USD 2,690-2,706/oz range.
Firmer across the board as the base metals complex continues to cheer the softer-than-expected US CPI alongside the constructive risk tone, which brought market expectations for Fed rate cuts back to pre-NFP levels.
UK GDP Estimate MM (Nov) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%); YY 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.3%); 3M/3M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%)
UK RICS House Price Balance (Dec) 28% vs. Exp. 28% (Prev. 25%)
German CPI Final MM (Dec) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%); YY 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
Italian CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Dec) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%); Consumer Prices Final YY (Dec) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.3%); Consumer Prices Final MM (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Nov) 16.4B EU vs. Exp. 8.5B EU (Prev. 6.8B EU).
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s Centeno said the interest rate will continue on a trajectory ideally towards values close to 2%.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Commerce Department announces USD 1.5bn in final awards to support next generation of US semiconductor advanced packaging.
US President Biden said in his farewell address that he wishes the Trump administration success and is concerned about a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a few wealthy people, while he added that excessive wealth threatens democracy. Biden is also concerned about the tech industrial complex and said Americans are buried in disinformation and free press is crumbling. Furthermore, he said AI needs safeguards and that they must make AI safe and trustworthy, as well as noted that America must lead on AI, not China.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said a duplicative agency doesn’t seem like a good step to save money for taxpayers when asked about Trump’s plan for an ‘external revenue service’, while she said Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs will raise costs for US goods and services.
US Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent said in prepared remarks ahead of his Senate testimony that sanctions must be part of a whole government approach, and they must ensure the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. Bessent also stated that the US must secure supply chains vulnerable to strategic competitors and the US must carefully deploy sanctions as part of a government-wide approach to address national security requirements. Furthermore, he said Trump has a generational opportunity to unleash a ‘new economic golden age’ with more jobs, wealth, and prosperity for Americans.
US House Speaker Johnson said one bill strategy makes sense, while he added that they will pass the budget and target by late February.
Outgoing Canadian PM Trudeau said Canada will respond forcefully if the US imposes tariffs but added that they do not even know whether US President-elect Trump will impose tariffs and therefore they don’t know what their response would be. Furthermore, reports noted that Canada could impose countermeasures on up to CAD 150bln worth of imports from the US if the Trump administration slaps tariffs on Canadian imports, although Canada won’t necessarily impose the countermeasures and would carry out public consultations first, while the proposed Canadian countermeasures would be divided into three groups and Florida orange juice would be targeted immediately.
Hindenburg Research founder Nate Anderson announced the decision to disband Hindenburg Research.
GEOPOLITICSMIDDLE EAST
“Trump administration’s national security adviser: We made it clear to the Israelis that if Hamas does not abide by the agreement, we will be with them in the war”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas Official says they are committed to the ceasefire agreement announced by the mediators, via Al Arabiya.
Israeli Prime Minister’s Office: “Israel will not set a date for a cabinet and government meeting until the mediators announce that Hamas has approved all the details of the agreement.”, according to journalist Stein. “Hamas withdraws from the explicit understandings agreed with the mediators and with Israel in a last-minute blackmail attempt.”
Israel’s PM office says Hamas is reneging on the understandings and creating a last-minute crisis that prevents an agreement, according to N12 News.
Israel-Hamas deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women, children and men over 50, while the total number of Palestinians released will depend on the hostages released and could be between 990-1,650. Furthermore, negotiations over the second phase of the agreement will start by the 16th day of phase one and is expected to include the release of all remaining hostages.
Israeli PM Netanyahu thanked US President-elect Trump for help in the Gaza deal and they agreed to meet in Washington soon, while he also spoke with US President Biden and thanked him for help in the hostages deal. However, it was separately reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said they are working on the final details of a Gaza agreement, according to AP. Yedioth Ahronoth also reported that the Israeli negotiating team will remain in Doha to complete talks, according to Asharq News.
Israel reportedly conducted violent raids on Gaza City, according to Al Arabiya.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky sees a higher likelihood for the war to end in 2025.
UK and Ukraine are to sign a historic partnership as UK PM Starmer travels to Ukraine to meet President Zelensky, according to Downing Street.
Russian Defence Ministry said it successfully hit a large underground gas storage area in Stryi in western Ukraine, while it added that attacks on energy infrastructure were responses to Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons on the Krasnodar region and TurkStream pipeline.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continues to climb higher and sits just above USD 99k; Ethereum gains to a slightly larger magnitude and holds around USD 3.3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St in the aftermath of the soft-leaning US CPI data which boosted Fed rate cut bets and saw money market pricing of cuts for this year return to around pre-NFP levels.
ASX 200 advanced at the open with outperformance in tech and financials although miners lagged with Rio Tinto shares indecisive after its quarterly update.
Nikkei 225 gained but was well off today’s best levels amid a firmer currency and the risk of a potential BoJ rate hike next week.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially boosted after the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts and with analysts suggesting the PBoC could lower RRR ahead of the Chinese New Year later this month, although the gains in the mainland were then pared amid lingering trade frictions after the US strengthened restrictions on advanced computing semiconductors to prevent diversion to China. Indices then resumed to the upside heading into the European open.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China Commerce Ministry says will initiate anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into US subsidies in its chip industry at Chinese Mature Node chip industry’s request.
China’s NDRC will raise retail gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 340/t and CNY 325/t respectively, effective January 17th.
PBoC might cut RRR before the Lunar New Year this month, according to analysts cited by Shanghai Securities News.
BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated they will raise the policy rate this year if economic and price conditions continue to improve, while he added how to proceed with monetary policy adjustment will depend on economic, price, and financial conditions at the time. Ueda also commented that the new US administration’s policy outlook and domestic wage negotiations are key factors in the policy decision, as well as repeated that they will debate at next week’s meeting whether to hike rates.
BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump’s inauguration, according to Bloomberg citing several unnamed people.
Reuters poll showed nearly two-thirds of 32 economists expect the BoJ to hike rates at next week’s meeting with 59 of 61 expecting the key rate to be at 0.50% by end-March, while two-thirds of 21 economists expect Japanese authorities to intervene in FX if yen weakens to 165 vs the dollar and the Japan rate of pay increase in labour talks this year is seen at 4.75% (prev. 4.70% in December poll).
BoK maintained its base rate at 3.0% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin dissented and wanted a cut, while it announced to expand the cap on the temporary special loan for small to medium businesses to KRW 14tln. BoK said it will determine the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts to mitigate downside risks to economic growth, as well as noted that South Korean consumption weakened, construction investment has been sluggish and economic growth is to slow. BoK Governor Rhee said the need for further cuts is higher now that downside risks to economic growth have heightened and all board members said a rate cut would be necessary but took consideration of dollar-won FX rates fluctuating due to political turmoil. Rhee also stated that six board members said they are open to rate cuts in the three-month ahead window, while Rhee noted it would be appropriate to wait until domestic political turmoil stabilises, and some certainty comes from the new US administration before changing policies. Furthermore, Rhee said Thursday’s rate decision was not because dollar-won rates are at a certain level, but because political uncertainties have been impacting the FX rates.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Dec) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Dec) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%)
Australian Employment (Dec) 56.3k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 35.6k)
Australian Full Time Employment (Dec) -23.7k (Prev. 52.6k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.9%)
Australian Participation Rate (Dec) 67.1% vs. Exp. 67.0% (Prev. 67.0%)
2C ASIAN REPORT
Post-CPI stock strength continued, Gaza ceasefire reached, Central Bank updates in focus – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 02:01 AM
APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St in the aftermath of the soft-leaning US CPI data which boosted Fed rate cut bets and saw money market pricing of cuts for this year return to around pre-NFP levels.
US official said a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal was reached and will take effect on 19th January; the deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.
Fed’s Williams (voter) said he doesn’t see higher yields reflecting a big inflation view shift and is not surprised bond yields have risen; Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he still sees continued progress on inflation.
BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump’s inauguration, according to Bloomberg citing several unnamed people.
BoE’s Taylor said he expects the underlying trend of inflation to remain on track towards the 2% target from now on and his base case on rate cuts is around 100bps this year.
European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market gained 1.0% on Wednesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index & Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, NBP Policy Announcement, Treasury Secretary nomination hearing for Scott Bessent, Comments from BoC’s Gravelle, Supply from Spain & US, Earnings from Taylor Wimpey, Whitbread, Wise, Pearson, Richemont, TSMC, UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, USB, PNC & Infosys.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks and bonds saw hefty bids in response to the soft-leaning US CPI report which resulted in participants boosting rate cut bets with ~40bps of easing now priced through year-end which is back to around pre-NFP levels.
As such, nearly all sectors were underpinned with notable outperformance in the heavyweight industries such as tech, communications and discretionary, while financials also gained after the big banks kicked off earnings season.
SPX +1.83% at 5,950, NDX +2.31% at 21,238, DJIA +1.65% at 43,222, RUT +1.99% at 2,263.
Fed’s Williams (voter) is optimistic about the US productivity outlook and said the wildcard for a neutral rate view is much higher levels of debt, while he noted higher government debt may have lifted the neutral rate estimate. Williams said he doesn’t see higher yields reflecting a big inflation view shift and is not surprised bond yields have risen, while he added that term premia factors are a big part of rising yields and has no prediction when the balance sheet contraction will stop.
Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he still sees continued progress on inflation and for the last 6 months, PCE inflation has run close to the 2% target. Furthermore, Goolsbee stated he is optimistic for 2025 regarding a soft landing but also noted a lot of uncertainties.
Fed Beige Book stated economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December, while consumer spending moved up moderately with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations.
US President Biden said in his farewell address that he wishes the Trump administration success and is concerned about a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a few wealthy people, while he added that excessive wealth threatens democracy. Biden is also concerned about the tech industrial complex and said Americans are buried in disinformation and free press is crumbling. Furthermore, he said AI needs safeguards and that they must make AI safe and trustworthy, as well as noted that America must lead on AI, not China.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said a duplicative agency doesn’t seem like a good step to save money for taxpayers when asked about Trump’s plan for an ‘external revenue service’, while she said Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs will raise costs for US goods and services.
US Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent said in prepared remarks ahead of his Senate testimony that sanctions must be part of a whole government approach, and they must ensure the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. Bessent also stated that the US must secure supply chains vulnerable to strategic competitors and the US must carefully deploy sanctions as part of a government-wide approach to address national security requirements. Furthermore, he said Trump has a generational opportunity to unleash a ‘new economic golden age’ with more jobs, wealth, and prosperity for Americans.
US House Speaker Johnson said one bill strategy makes sense, while he added that they will pass the budget and target by late February.
Outgoing Canadian PM Trudeau said Canada will respond forcefully if the US imposes tariffs but added that they do not even know whether US President-elect Trump will impose tariffs and therefore they don’t know what their response would be. Furthermore, reports noted that Canada could impose countermeasures on up to CAD 150bln worth of imports from the US if the Trump administration slaps tariffs on Canadian imports, although Canada won’t necessarily impose the countermeasures and would carry out public consultations first, while the proposed Canadian countermeasures would be divided into three groups and Florida orange juice would be targeted immediately.
Hindenburg Research founder Nate Anderson announced the decision to disband Hindenburg Research.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St in the aftermath of the soft-leaning US CPI data which boosted Fed rate cut bets and saw money market pricing of cuts for this year return to around pre-NFP levels.
ASX 200 advanced at the open with outperformance in tech and financials although miners lagged with Rio Tinto shares indecisive after its quarterly update.
Nikkei 225 gained but was well off today’s best levels amid a firmer currency and the risk of a potential BoJ rate hike next week.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially boosted after the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts and with analysts suggesting the PBoC could lower RRR ahead of the Chinese New Year later this month, although the gains in the mainland were then pared amid lingering trade frictions after the US strengthened restrictions on advanced computing semiconductors to prevent diversion to China. Indices then resumed to the upside heading into the European open.
US equity futures traded little changed but held on to the prior day’s post-CPI spoils.
European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market gained 1.0% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound after weakening yesterday on the softer-than-expected Core CPI data which resulted in a brief dip beneath the 109.00 level before recovering off lows, while the latest Fed commentary provided little to shift the dial and participants now await US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Index.
EUR/USD lacked direction with the single currency capped by resistance at the 1.0300 level heading into the ECB Minutes due later.
GBP/USD was lacklustre after the prior day’s whipsawing and failure to sustain a brief return to 1.2300 territory, with monthly UK GDP data eyed next.
USD/JPY trickled lower amid BoJ rate hike risk with money markets pricing around an 84% chance of a 25bps hike at next week’s meeting, while a Bloomberg article also noted the BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump inauguration.
Antipodeans gradually weakened with AUD/USD on the backfoot despite stronger-than-expected jobs data in which Employment Change for December topped forecasts at 56.3k (exp. 15.0k) although this was influenced by seasonal factors and was solely fuelled by Part-Time employment as Full-Time jobs contracted.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1881 vs exp. 7.3247 (prev. 7.1883).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures plateaued after surging on the CPI data which boosted Fed rate cut bets with money markets pricing around 40bps of cuts this year.
Bund futures took a breather after surging above the 131.00 level in tandem with the gains in US counterparts.
10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in peers with the help of inline/softer-than-expected PPI and a strong 20yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures held on to the prior day’s spoil with WTI above USD 80/bbl after recent dollar weakness post-CPI and amid the constructive risk tone.
US President-elect Trump is to abolish the requirement for some LNG export permit renewals, according to Reuters sources.
Falling Ukrainian drones triggered a fire at an oil storage facility in Russia’s southern Voronezh region although no casualties were reported, according to Reuters citing the regional governor.
Spot gold remained afloat and tested the USD 2,700/oz level to the upside in the aftermath of the soft-leaning US inflation data.
Copper futures were mildly underpinned amid the broad constructive mood across global markets.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin mildly pulled back overnight following the prior day’s rally and brief reclaim of the USD 100k status.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC might cut RRR before the Lunar New Year this month, according to analysts cited by Shanghai Securities News.
BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated they will raise the policy rate this year if economic and price conditions continue to improve, while he added how to proceed with monetary policy adjustment will depend on economic, price, and financial conditions at the time. Ueda also commented that the new US administration’s policy outlook and domestic wage negotiations are key factors in the policy decision, as well as repeated that they will debate at next week’s meeting whether to hike rates.
BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout following Trump’s inauguration, according to Bloomberg citing several unnamed people.
Reuters poll showed nearly two-thirds of 32 economists expect the BoJ to hike rates at next week’s meeting with 59 of 61 expecting the key rate to be at 0.50% by end-March, while two-thirds of 21 economists expect Japanese authorities to intervene in FX if yen weakens to 165 vs the dollar and the Japan rate of pay increase in labour talks this year is seen at 4.75% (prev. 4.70% in December poll).
BoK maintained its base rate at 3.0% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin dissented and wanted a cut, while it announced to expand the cap on the temporary special loan for small to medium businesses to KRW 14tln. BoK said it will determine the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts to mitigate downside risks to economic growth, as well as noted that South Korean consumption weakened, construction investment has been sluggish and economic growth is to slow. BoK Governor Rhee said the need for further cuts is higher now that downside risks to economic growth have heightened and all board members said a rate cut would be necessary but took consideration of dollar-won FX rates fluctuating due to political turmoil. Rhee also stated that six board members said they are open to rate cuts in the three-month ahead window, while Rhee noted it would be appropriate to wait until domestic political turmoil stabilises, and some certainty comes from the new US administration before changing policies. Furthermore, Rhee said Thursday’s rate decision was not because dollar-won rates are at a certain level, but because political uncertainties have been impacting the FX rates.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Dec) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Dec) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%)
Australian Employment (Dec) 56.3k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 35.6k)
Australian Full Time Employment (Dec) -23.7k (Prev. 52.6k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.9%)
Australian Participation Rate (Dec) 67.1% vs. Exp. 67.0% (Prev. 67.0%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US official said a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal was reached, while US President-elect Trump commented on Truth Social that they have a deal for hostages in the Middle East and they will be released shortly. Furthermore, Qatar’s PM also stated that a ceasefire deal in Gaza has been reached and will take effect on 19th January.
Israel-Hamas deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women, children and men over 50, while the total number of Palestinians released will depend on the hostages released and could be between 990-1,650. Furthermore, negotiations over the second phase of the agreement will start by the 16th day of phase one and is expected to include the release of all remaining hostages.
Israeli PM Netanyahu thanked US President-elect Trump for help in the Gaza deal and they agreed to meet in Washington soon, while he also spoke with US President Biden and thanked him for help in the hostages deal. However, it was separately reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said they are working on the final details of a Gaza agreement, according to AP. Yedioth Ahronoth also reported that the Israeli negotiating team will remain in Doha to complete talks, according to Asharq News.
Israel reportedly conducted violent raids on Gaza City, according to Al Arabiya.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky sees a higher likelihood for the war to end in 2025.
UK and Ukraine are to sign a historic partnership as UK PM Starmer travels to Ukraine to meet President Zelensky, according to Downing Street.
Russian Defence Ministry said it successfully hit a large underground gas storage area in Stryi in western Ukraine, while it added that attacks on energy infrastructure were responses to Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons on the Krasnodar region and TurkStream pipeline.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE’s Taylor said his view is the risks around inflation have shifted in the last 12 months and that inflation moderated faster than expected in 2024, while he would expect the underlying trend of inflation to remain on track towards the 2% target from now on and his base case on rate cuts is around 100bps this year. Taylor also stated that a rise in gilt yields does not make things easier and that it is a headwind for the economy.
ECB’s Centeno said the interest rate will continue on a trajectory ideally towards values close to 2%.
DATA RECAP
UK RICS House Price Balance (Dec) 28% vs. Exp. 28% (Prev. 25%)
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
German cops affiliated with right wing AfD face dismissal under a government decree. Germany imploding faster than a speeding bullet
(Brooke remix)
German Cops Affiliated With AfD Face Dismissal Under Govt Decree, Leaked Memo Reveals
Officials who are involved in the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will be removed from service with the federal police, according to an internal memo leaked to the German newspaper Junge Freiheit.
The memo refers to a decree issued by Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, of the Social Democrats (SPD). Faeser has warned federal police officers against sympathizing with the AfD and also stated that they should not join the party as members.
“They should expect to be fired,” said Faeser.
The federal police have 54,000 employees, of whom 45,000 are police officers. It is unclear how many officers are currently members of the party, however, many police are members of other parties, which means the decree and threats from Faeser are not about maintaining political neutrality.
For example, the president of the federal police, Dieter Romann, is a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). A screenshot taken from the police intranet was shared exclusively with Junge Freiheit, which reads:
“If membership in such a party becomes known, there are sufficient actual indications that justify the suspicion of a disciplinary offense, at least if the officer is actively involved in such a party.”
Finally, there is an open threat of termination for officers found to be members of the party.
“If disciplinary proceedings are initiated in these cases, officers must expect disciplinary consequences up to and including dismissal,” the intranet site reads.
To underline the threat, the words “disciplinary consequences up to and including dismissal” are marked in bold in the text.
The police source who spoke to Junge Freiheit, and wishes to remain anonymous, told the paper:
“For me, this represents a significant restriction on the free formation of my own will as a police officer. In my opinion, making involvement with a party that represents more than a fifth of the population a criminal offense is an unacceptable curtailment of the basic rights of civil servants — even taking into account the obligation of neutrality. Any activity for the AfD is prohibited.”
The internal memo is entitled:
“Candidacy for a confirmed right-wing extremist party? Not a good idea as a federal civil servant!”
It is clear, therefore, that this does not only apply to the police but a range of civil service professions.
Dismissal from the civil service is not only sought in the case of candidacy but also for “other behavior that requires a targeted adoption of the political content of such a party.” This is “to be regarded as activism in this sense.”
The memo reads that the constitutional state “cannot tolerate” this because “the free democratic basic order is rather endangered if the constitutional state remains inactive and allows officials who are entrusted with state tasks and who are obliged to stand up for the free democratic basic order to question the constitutional order in its absolute core.”
In this internal warning, the German Federal Police explicitly refers to a decree of the Federal Ministry of the Interior dated Aug. 29, 2024. This provides for the “mandatory initiation of disciplinary proceedings” if one runs for the AfD, which is classified as “certainly right-wing extremist” in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia.
Furthermore, the provision applies not only to membership in the AfD but also to membership in “right-wing extremist groups such as the ‘Free Saxons’ or the AfD’s youth organization, ‘Young Alternative.’
In order to enable the new disciplinary measures against politically undesirable officials, according to the memo, Police Service Regulation 100 (“Leadership and deployment of the police”) was amended. The Federal Police informs its officers that section 1.5 “Leadership and Cooperation” has been revised.
The AfD is expected to become the second largest party in the Bundestag after the federal elections on Feb. 23 with polls currently placing them on 22 percent — its highest level of support for over a year.
Five Israeli female soldiers will be released from Gaza on Sunday, coinciding with the first day of a planned ceasefire – according to a report by KAN news, a senior US official announced Wednesday night.
The exchange will include Palestinian prisoners as part of a deal mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.
The official also confirmed that two American citizens, Keith Siegel and Sagie Dekel-Chen, are set to be released during the initial phase of the agreement.
“I am disappointed that this agreement does not talk about all the hostages. It is unacceptable that the second phase is not defined in a way that shows when my son will be released from captivity,” Ruby Chen, the father of American-Israeli IDF Sgt. Itay Chen, told Fox News Digital on Wednesday.
The first phase
The first phase of the deal will allegedly last 42 days and will see the release of 33 hostages, according to Arab media reports that have not been verified by Israeli officials.
Supporters of Israeli hostages, who were kidnapped during the deadly October 7 2023 attack by Hamas, react to news on the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, during a protest to demand a deal to bring every hostage home, in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 15, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
It is currently unclear what the following phases will consist of, as the PMO announced that the final details of the deal are still being worked on.
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya gives a televised speech about the hostage-ceasefire deal between the Palestinian terror group and Israel, in the Qatari capital of Doha on January 15, 2025. (YouTube screenshot used in accordance with article 27a of the Copyright Law)
Senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya says in a televised address that Israel failed to achieve its goals in Gaza, as he declares the ceasefire-hostage deal that was announced as a “historic moment” and describes it as a defeat for the Jewish state.
“Our people have thwarted the declared and hidden goals of the occupation. Today we prove that the occupation will never defeat our people and their resistance,” al-Hayya is quoted as saying by Germany’s dpa news agency.
He vows the Gaza-ruling terror group will neither forgive or forget, while praising the Hamas-led massacres of Israelis in October 2023 that started the war in Gaza as a “military accomplishment” and “a source of pride for our people,” according to a New York Times translation of his remarks.
Al-Hayya additionally hails other Iran-backed organizations such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen for launching solidarity attacks on Israel.
He also indicates Hamas will continue to pursue Israel’s destruction, saying the Palestinian terrorist organization will continue to look toward Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque as a guide.
“Our enemy will never see a moment of weakness from us,” he adds.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks on the phone with US President-elect Donald Trump on January 15, 2025. (Amos Ben Gershom/GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is speaking separately with both US President-elect Donald Trump and US President Joe Biden to thank them for their help in securing a ceasefire-hostage release deal, his office says.
According to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu thanks Trump for his “help in advancing the release of the hostages and helping Israel to bring an end to the suffering of dozens of hostages and their families.”
Netanyahu also thanks the incoming US president for his comments earlier today that Gaza will “NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven.” The pair agreed to meet soon in Washington, the PMO says.
The prime minister spoke as well with Biden and “also thanked him for his help in advancing the hostage deal.”
The announcement from the PMO is Netanyahu’s first public confirmation that Israel has accepted a US and Qatari-brokered ceasefire-hostage release deal, expected to come into effect on Sunday.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS LAST MINUTE SNAG
Israel Delays Approving Hostage Deal, Accusing Hamas Of Reneging & Stoking ‘Crisis’
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 10:05 AM
An expected vote by Israel’s security cabinet to approve the Gaza ceasefire deal has been delayed by several hours, followed by an accusation from the Prime Minister’s Office accusing Hamas of trying to thwart finalization of the deal at the last minute.
The hold-up could prove deeply awkward and embarrassing, given the signal from Israeli officials has been that it’s all but a done deal, and on Wednesday the United States and Qatar were the first to pronounce an agreement had been reached, with Biden issuing formal congratulatory remarks.
“Hamas is reneging on the understandings and creating a last-minute crisis that is preventing an agreement,” Netanyahu’s office said. “The Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement.”
President-elect Donald Trump has also praised the “epic” deal, describing in a Wednesday statement that it “only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”
Israeli media says the government is still “holding off” on acceptance of the deal as of Thursday afternoon (local time). Times of Israel writes the following:
Israel was still holding off on Thursday afternoon from officially declaring that a ceasefire-hostage release deal announced a day earlier by mediators had been reached with Hamas, insisting that details remained to be finalized and that Hamas was throwing last-minute wrenches into the negotiations.
Nevertheless, most Israeli officials indicated the agreement was all but a done deal, with the focus moving to the internal political battle playing out ahead of the expected cabinet and security cabinet votes, which were delayed by at least several hours.
It could be hardline holdouts in Netanyahu’s security cabinet who are attempting to gain influence in their resistance to the agreement, which they have called a bad deal.
“Other reports in Israeli media suggested instead that the delay in convening the cabinet was due to attempts to gain the support of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has threatened to quit the government along with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir if the war is ended,” Times of Israel continues.
The impending deal reportedly lays out an initial six week ceasefire phase which includes gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Central Gaza as well as the return of displaced Palestinians to North Gaza.
Of the some 100 hostages still held by Hamas, at least one-third are believed already deceased. Dozens were released upon an initial deal struck early in the conflict.
BREAKING: Heavy Israeli bombardment in Gaza after the announcement of a ceasefire deal has killed at least 32 people, medics reported.https://t.co/pS4xOmzuXg
Like with the first hostage exchange, dozens of Palestinian prisoners are expected to be released under this new agreement in return for each Israeli hostage. Meanwhile some sporadic bombings and fighting and Gaza have continued into Thursday.
But will the much celebrated deal collapse just as it reaches the finish line of Netanyahu’s desk?
END
Israel holds off on approving hostage deal, accusing Hamas of reneging on details
Cabinet vote on deal delayed amid dispute on identities of prisoners to be freed; Hamas denies backtracking; official not in PMO says Netanyahu stalling over ‘coalition politics’
Demonstrators stand beside mock coffins draped in Israeli flags, protesting the ceasefire deal with Hamas, outside the Supreme Court in Jerusalem on January 16, 2025. The headline on the placard reads: “Until The Victory.” (John Wessels / AFP)
Israel was still holding off on Thursday afternoon from officially declaring that a ceasefire-hostage release deal announced a day earlier by mediators had been reached with Hamas, insisting that details remained to be finalized and that Hamas was throwing last-minute wrenches into the negotiations.
Mossad chief David Barnea, the head of Israel’s negotiating team who was dispatched to Doha on Saturday night, was still in the Qatari capital as of Thursday afternoon, according to an official familiar with the talks.
Both the US and Qatar — who brokered the agreement — proclaimed on Wednesday evening that a deal had been reached to end the 15-month war in Gaza triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held off on publicly commenting, saying he would only do so when the terms were finalized.
Nevertheless, most Israeli officials indicated the agreement was all but a done deal, with the focus moving to the internal political battle playing out ahead of the expected cabinet and security cabinet votes, which were delayed by at least several hours.
The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement Thursday morning accusing Hamas of backing out of some agreements and creating a “crisis” in finalizing the deal.
“Hamas is reneging on the understandings and creating a last-minute crisis that is preventing an agreement,” the PMO said in a statement issued in both English and Hebrew. “The Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (center), Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (left) and Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs at a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, November 1, 2024. (Amos Ben Gershom/GPO)
Other reports in Israeli media suggested instead that the delay in convening the cabinet was due to attempts to gain the support of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has threatened to quit the government along with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir if the war is ended.
Overnight, the PMO specified that the dispute related to the release of Palestinian security prisoners, describing “a last-minute attempt by Hamas to withdraw from a clause in the agreement that grants Israel veto power over the release of mass murderers who are symbols of terrorism.” It said Hamas was “demanding to dictate the identity of these murderers,” contradicting agreed-upon terms.
A leaked copy of the deal, whose authenticity was later confirmed to The Times of Israel, said prisoners would be released “based on lists agreed upon by both sides.”
Following the Israeli government statement, senior Hamas official Izzat el-Risheq said that the terror group is committed to the ceasefire agreement announced by mediators on Wednesday.
Large billboards calling for the release of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, seen in Herzliya on January 16, 2025. (Dor Pazuelo/Flash90)
An Israeli official not from Netanyahu’s office suggested that the premier is making announcements about breakdowns in negotiations and holding off on announcing the agreement his negotiating team signed off on yesterday while he works to keep his coalition intact.
The Israeli official acknowledged to The Times of Israel that details are still being finalized in negotiations but insisted that the disagreements are relatively minor and will be solved in the coming hours.
Asked to explain Netanyahu’s conduct since the deal was announced, the Israeli official chalks it up to “coalition politics.”
Separately, a senior diplomatic official denied to reporters on Thursday that Israel had agreed to gradually pull out of the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between Gaza and Egypt from the start of the ceasefire.
The official said Israeli troops will remain in the area “throughout the entire first stage, all 42 days.” The number of troops deployed there will remain the same, the official said, “but will be distributed in a different manner, including outposts, patrols, observation points and control along the entire route.”
Troops of the Nahal Brigade operate in the northern Gaza Strip in a handout photo issued January 15, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
Only on day 16 of the first stage, the official added, will negotiations begin over the end of the war, and “if Hamas does not agree to Israeli demands to end the war, Israel will remain in the Philadelphi Corridor also on the 42nd day and also the 50th day.”
In practical terms, the official contended, “Israel is staying in Philadelphi until further notice.”
The leaked copy of the agreement states that the Israeli side “will gradually reduce the forces in the corridor area during stage 1 based on the accompanying maps and the agreement between both sides.” On day 42, the deal says, “Israeli forces will begin their withdrawal and complete it no later than day 50.”
Under the terms of the deal, the initial six-week first phase of the ceasefire will see the gradual release of 33 Israeli hostages — including two who have been held in Gaza for many years.
During that phase, Israel is slated to gradually withdraw from the densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip, including the Netzarim Corridor in its center, and deploy to a 700-meter-long perimeter on the Gaza border. The Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt will open for civilians and wounded to leave Gaza for abroad after the release of all the female hostages in the first phase, and civilians will be able to start returning to northern Gaza a week into the deal.
Portraits of Israeli hostages held by Hamas are displayed on the gates of the Neue Synagoge (new synagogue) in Berlin on January 16, 2025. (John MacDougall/AFP)
On the 16th day of the first stage, negotiations are slated to begin on the terms of the second phase of the deal, which is expected to see the release of the remaining 65 hostages.
Hamas-led terrorists kidnapped 251 hostages during their October 7, 2023, onslaught, and 105 were released during a November 2023 temporary truce, while four were freed earlier and eight have been rescued alive by troops from Gaza.
The bodies of 40 hostages have been recovered from the Strip, and of the 94 captives believed to still be held, 34 have been confirmed dead by Israeli officials. The fate of many of the others is unknown.
Agencies and Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
end
Final hurdles said cleared for hostage-ceasefire deal, cabinet set to meet to approve
Shas chair says barriers holding up deal have been overcome * Moscow hopes Russian-Israeli hostage will be among those freed * Religious Zionism party opposes deal
Final disputes holding up Gaza ceasefire deal have been resolved, Axios reports
The final disputes holding up a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas have been resolved, Axios reported on Thursday, citing an unnamed US official.
Axios did not provide details.
Israel said it had delayed holding a cabinet meeting on Thursday to ratify a ceasefire with Hamas, blaming the militant group for the hold-up. The hold-up involves the identities of several prisoners Hamas is demanding be released and it is expected to be resolved soon, a US official earlier said.
Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli speaks in the Knesset on June 25, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli vows to resign from the government if Israel withdraws from the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between Gaza and Egypt before the war goals are achieved, as sources were quoted as saying the final issues in a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas had been resolved.
“So far, the government has kept its commitment to the war’s goals even when question marks arose, as in the previous deal [in November 2023], the issue of entering Rafah, or a ground maneuver in Lebanon. It is clear to me that this will be the case now as well,” the Likud minister writes in a post on X.
He then vows he’ll resign from his position as minister if “God forbid” the IDF pulls back from the Gaza-Egypt border before the war goals of toppling Hamas and freeing the hostages are achieved.
A senior diplomatic official confirmed earlier today that Israel had not agreed to gradually pull out of the Philadelphi Corridor from the start of the ceasefire and that IDF troops would remain in the area “throughout the entire first stage, all 42 days.”
“This deal is difficult to digest and involves heavy costs. So, as was the case with the previous vote, I will make my final decision only after the full details of the deal are presented,” he adds.
The security cabinet was set to approve the deal this morning, but the meeting was delayed after the Prime Minister’s Office accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the agreement. The meeting will reportedly be held tomorrow morning, though it has not yet been confirmed.
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Three Palestinians killed in Jenin
(Reuters/JerusalemPost)
Three Palestinians killed in West Bank’s Jenin, Palestinian officials say
Three Palestinians were killed and scores more injured by an Israeli air strike in the West Bank city of Jenin on Wednesday, the Palestinian Red Crescent said.
The Israeli military said it had conducted a strike in the area of Jenin but did not give further details.
The Jenin camp has long been a hotbed of militants with an array of light weapons and a growing arsenal of explosive devices. The Israeli military regularly accuses militant groups of basing fighters within densely populated urban areas such as refugee camps that date back to 1948. Many of the terrorists live in the camp, often with their families.
Terror groups have grown in strength in Jenin, where Israel estimates almost half the population is affiliated to Islamic Jihad or Hamas.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Israel kills Oct. 7 Nukhba terrorist in Gaza airstrikes, hits over 50 terror sites
The IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) killed a Nukhba terrorist who took part in the October 7 massacre, along with other Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists during airstrikes that took place in the Gaza Strip, the IDF announced on Thursday evening.
The IDF identified the Nukhba terrorist as Muhammad Al-Hisham Zahdi Abu al-Rous. It added that during the October 7 attacks, Rous infiltrated Israel and participated in the massacre at the Nova Music Festival.
Israel’s military also added that in a separate joint operation, the IDF and Shin Bet carried out airstrikes in the past day, striking approximately 50 terror sites across the Gaza Strip.
Among the targets included in the strikes were Hamas and PIJ terrorists, military facilities, weapons storage sites, rocket launch positions, and observation posts, the military said.
ISRAEL /SYRIA/OPINION
Can Israel and the new Syria live together? – opinion
Such a system, no matter how moderate it claims to be, could give Turkey’s Islamists new chances to keep ruling after Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s time ends.
SYRIA’S DE FACTO leader Mohammad al-Julani: He said that Syria must be a bridge rather than a player in the clash involving Russia, the US, Turkey, and Israel, the writer notes.(photo credit: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
One of the key talking points about Syria’s future is the relationship between post-Assad Syria and Israel. The new Syrian leadership’s head, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, seems thoroughly prepared for this discussion. He told the BBC that the country is worn out from wars and needs growth, and poses no threat to any nation in the world.
Through this straightforward statement, he wholly removes Syria from the fight with Israel. Furthermore, he closes the book on its standing in what Iran calls the “resistance axis.” There is neither an axis nor resistance from the new Syrian leadership’s viewpoint.
However, for Israel and the West, this talk is merely a show of intent that cannot be fully trusted. This distrust stems from two factors. First, affairs have not settled for the new Syrian leadership yet.
Second, the hardline background of Syria’s new leaders calls for waiting and testing these aims until they are put into action within trusted state bodies. They also need to make sure that the regional player who held sway over Syrian decision-making for so long has given in to the new geopolitical truth. Moreover, this player must believe that change is now real and must be dealt with.
Julani’s words show his understanding of what is causing the current strain between Syria and Israel. He stated that Israel had reasons for their involvement in Syria regarding Iranian militias and Hezbollah, and now there is no ground for Israeli forces to push forward in Syria.
A man carries a giant flag made of flags of Iran, Palestine, Syria and Hezbollah, during a ceremony marking the 37th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, in Tehran, Feburary 2016 (credit: RAHEB HOMAVANDI/REUTERS)
He pointed to diplomatic ways of dealing with Israel on this matter, including international pressure and the UN. He noted that Syria “must” be a bridge rather than a player in the clash between Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Israel.
Good diplomacy
This is good diplomatic speech. Yet making it happen seems very hard, given how Iraqi diplomacy, for instance, could not break free from the US-Iranian clash on its soil. This is true despite Iraq showing drive and effectiveness in handling matters tied to its national safety.
Notably, Julani wholly left out any mention of Iran despite its strong presence and growing sway in Syrian matters in recent years.
He seemed sure about wiping out all Iranian legacy with one stroke or merely by Bashar al-Assad’s fall. This thinking might not seem realistic given Syria’s shaky security setup. Additionally, it is hard to be sure about its details and the regional and demographic tangles that have grown deeper over recent years.
Among the reassuring messages Julani sent to Israel was the final split from Iran. This is not about reassuring Israel directly. Rather, it is about the ideological and interest-based hatred between Iran, which fought against the armed groups to back Assad, and these groups with their anti-Iran ideological and sectarian background. Yet, in the end, this works in Israel’s favor.
We note here that Julani welcomed Russia staying on Syrian soil. He believes Syria cannot quickly split from Russia. Moreover, he thinks building strategic ties on new grounds ensuring Syria’s sovereignty and free choice is possible. He pointed to “unfair agreements” between Assad and Russia.
This basic acceptance of Russian presence is not just about Russia’s reach inside Syria. It shows that Julani and his fellows know that one of the main props for their being and getting regional and international backing is fully splitting from Iran. Indeed, this split happened from the first moments of Assad’s fall.
ISRAEL, FOR its part, did not wait to test the new Syrian rule’s pulse. Instead, it rushed to step up its strikes on Syrian key facilities, weapons stores, and vital military sites. These actions aimed to wholly end any chance of threats from the new system. Israel justified its attacks as aiming to boost its security and stop advanced weapons, like chemical weapons, from falling into the hands of what it called “terrorist groups.”
Israeli media reported destroying about 80% of standing Syrian military might. They saw their moves as defensive and protective. Israel also spread its forces in the buffer zone on the Syrian border, which splits the Golan Heights from Syrian land.
This was the first entry to the area since signing the agreement, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially canceled. He called it a “temporary step” until security matters are settled with the new Syrian government.
I believe Israel does not fear the new Syria as much as it fears Turkey’s old and renewed aims and its ties to the new Syrian system. Yet Israel has managed – through careful forward moves using the situation – to force a new reality. It has done so by widening buffer zones along Syria’s border to strengthen its later bargaining stance regarding the Golan Heights.
Israel also readied itself for a new military clash breaking out inside Syria between armed groups as such fighting threatens Israel’s safety. This readiness shows the hardest lesson Israel learned after Hamas’s October 7 attack on its land: Leave nothing to chance. Moreover, act first to shield itself and its people from any possible threats, however small.
This approach is especially important since regional experience shows Syrian weapon stores could move to different hardline Syrian groups. Such a movement would boost their power to launch attacks or even just threaten to do so. Israel no longer holds back from wiping out likely threat sources. Indeed, downplaying threats for peace’s sake is now in the past.
The official stance states that Israel will not mind setting up normal ties with the new Syrian system under two conditions. First, Syria must end its link to Iran. Second, it must not allow terrorist groups inside Syria.
Yet it might be too soon to build a realistic view about whether Israel would accept a Syrian ruling system led by former jihadists. This uncertainty grows if they have strong strategic ties with Turkey, as Israel now fears what some watchers call the “Ottoman dream.”
This concern is particularly serious since having a Syrian ruling system with an Islamic background and extreme history might spark strategic shifts in other regional countries. Such a system, no matter how moderate it claims to be, could give Turkey’s Islamists new chances to keep ruling after Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s time ends. This possibility remains true even if the current system declares moderation.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.
END
ALGERIA/SPAIN
Spanish citizen kidnapped by jihadist group in Algeria
A jihadist group in Algeria has kidnapped a Spanish citizen, two sources revealed to the news agency EFE on Thursday.
Contrary to early reports, the victim has been confirmed to be a man and not a woman.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
Houthis again target USA carrier in the Red Sea as the Gaza truce deal was announced.
Trump will have a field day striking the Houthis in Yemen
(zerohedge)
Houthis Again Target US Carrier In Red Sea Just As Gaza Truce Deal Announced
Wednesday, Jan 15, 2025 – 05:20 PM
Yemen’s Houthis have once again announced that military forces have targeted American warships in the Red Sea. The Pentagon has not offered confirmation, however, and rarely admits to coming under such direct attacks.
The Wednesday statement saidmissiles and drones were launched against the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier and other US warships patrolling the Red Sea. It’s unknown whether direct hits resulted, or if all projectiles were intercepted.
“The missile force and the drone air force of the Yemeni Armed Forces … carried out a joint military operation targeting the American aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and a number of its warships in the northern Red Sea with a number of winged missiles and drones, during their attempt to carry out operations to target Yemen,” the statement reads.
“This targeting of the carrier is the sixth since its arrival in the Red Sea,” it added. The Iran-backed group has clearly remained committed and defiant as it blocks Red Sea shipping, despite several rounds of US-UK-Israeli bombing campaigns.
The timing of this attack is interesting given that widespread reports of Hamas and Israeli having achieved a peace deal have persisted over the last 12 hours. President Biden as well as Donald Trump are hailing the deal, which still has to be voted on by Israeli lawmakers, which is set for Thursday morning.
The Houthis have consistently demanded that for it to halt its Red Sea attacks there must be full Israeli military withdrawal from the Strip.
The Houthi statement said it remains “ready for any American or Israeli escalation and will continue to perform its duties towards the oppressed Palestinian people,” and that “operations will not stop until the aggression stops and the siege on the Gaza Strip is lifted.”
If the promised hostage exchange happens by week’s end, the Houthis might halt these attacks or at least dial them back. Recently several ballistic missiles have been launched on central Israel.
If the Yemeni operations do persist, it could complicate or damage efforts to keep the peace in the Gaza Strip, as it’s already sure to be an extremely delicate and fragile truce.
The Houthis are claiming that they attacked the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group again. This is the sixth such claim. Here's what I find interesting: First, this is the first time I've seen a consistent campaign about targeting an American CSG. https://t.co/l3AVnd8SEW
Still, many hurdles remain, and the details of phase 2 are still to be hammered out in phase 1. This leaves the potential for Hamas-Israel fighting to be sparked once again. So far a fragile truce in Lebanon with Hezbollah has held.
END
ISRAEL LEBANON
US to Israel: Do not allow collapse of Lebanon ceasefire – exclusive
Is this the next crisis between Israel and the incoming Trump administration?
By AMICHAI STEINJANUARY 16, 2025 20:39Updated: JANUARY 16, 2025 21:19
IDF troops operating in the Litani River area in Lebanon for first time in over two decades(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Senior Israeli officials have indicated their intention to remain in southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day ceasefire, due to the slow deployment of the Lebanese army, raising concerns in Washington.
The Jerusalem Post learned on Thursday that sources close to US President-elect Donald Trump have reportedly conveyed a warning to Israeli officials: “We don’t want the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to collapse.”
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which began on November 27, was meant to last 60 days. During this time, the Lebanese Armed Forces was expected to deploy in southern Lebanon and dismantle Hezbollah’s weapons storage facilities.
However, Israeli officials have accused the Lebanese Army of failing to fulfill its mission, with claims emerging that some Lebanese Army personnel are allegedly tipping off Hezbollah militants ahead of planned searches.
In recent days, Hezbollah has declared that it will act if Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon past the agreed-upon 60-day period, prompting concerns among Trump’s team that any Israeli extension could reignite hostilities.
Slow deployment
The Post has learned that Israeli officials have attempted to make US counterparts understand that the deployment by the Lebanese Army has been slow and insufficient, leaving Hezbollah’s presence largely intact. This, the officials argue, necessitates Israel’s continued presence in the area.
HEZBOLLAH FLAGS flutter atop a poster depicting Hassan Nasrallah, in southern Lebanon, near the border with Israel, on October 8, 2023. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks the end of an era, the writer asserts. (credit: REUTERS)
For Israel, maintaining US involvement in the monitoring mechanism – comprising Israel, Lebanon, France, and Hezbollah – is a priority. Israeli officials have stressed that American leadership is crucial to ensuring the mechanism’s effectiveness, particularly in pressuring the Lebanese Army to act decisively against Hezbollah.
Coordination with the US, Israeli officials emphasized, is essential to prevent the Americans from withdrawing from their oversight role in Lebanon.
end
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Israel Launches First Attack Direct Attack On Jolani’s HTS In Syria
Concerns about Israel’s newfound hostility toward Syria’s new Islamist government, run by al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) grew substantially on Wednesday after an Israeli drone attacked a military convoy belonging to the new government in the southern Quneitra Governorate. Three people were killed, two fighters and a civilian.
Despite hundreds of Israeli airstrikes on remnants of the Assad government across Syria in the past month, this is significant because it is the first time Israel has attacked active personnel with the new, post-Assad government.
Israel was supposed to be happy with the regime change, and Prime Minister Netanyahu even took credit for Assad’s ouster last month. This did come with Israel’s invasion and occupation of significant territory in southern Syria though, including parts of the Quneitra and Daraa Governorates.
In recent days, Israel has been more openly hostile toward the HTS, and used this as an excuse for extending their occupation of those parts of Syria indefinitely. The HTS has talked about trying to be on friendly terms with Israel, but this doesn’t seem to be in the cards at the end of the day.
Israel has taken the demilitarized zone previously held by the UN Syria Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), along with some towns and villages across the zone in Syria itself.
In al-Harra, a village in Quneitra Israeli troops haveordered over 1,000 civilians to leave. They arrived one day, told the imam to use the Muezzin microphone to announce the order for everyone to leave by 3 p.m. the same day.
The civilians left, especially the women and children. A lot of the men stayed and some people are trying to return. There was no real provision made for displaced people, and most of those who fled were given little to no time to gather belongings, so they feel they have little choice but to return, even if it risks attacks by Israeli forces. Right now, it is estimated that around half of the population of al-Harrahas been displaced.
Though Israel initially presented this as an immediate need for border security along the border between Syria and the part of Syria Israel had already occupied since 1967. In recent days though the talk of a long-term presence has many fearing it’s just another permanent Israeli occupation.
Though the US State Department has endorsed the Israeli invasion and occupation of Syria, it has led to disquiet in the international community. Turkey is particular, a strong backer of the HTS, has criticized the Israeli aggression, and demanded that they withdraw from Syria, warning “unfavorable outcomes” if they stay.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry angrily rejected the Turkish position, insisting Turkey is the real “imperialist actor.” Turkey has been intervening against the Kurdish SDF in northern Syria for weeks, and President Erdogan’s call for Israeli withdrawal was couched as the international community taking “hands off Syria” to allow Turkey to wipe out ISIS and the SDF.
Broadcaster Soni Dimond; journos Derrick Ward, Andrea Bailey; Barstool producer Jonathan Stanko (32, C); comic Jaded Jaden (43); jazz drummer Anthony Pinciotti (49); 66 infants; & more
ABC Morning Host Soni Dimond Dead at 67 After Suffering Cardiac Arrest — As Colleagues Left Heartbroken Over ‘Charismatic’ Star’s Passing
January 10, 2025
Lancaster, PA – A beloved ABC morning host has died after suffering cardiac arrest. Soni Dimond is being remembered by her colleagues following her unexpected death on Thursday, December 27, at the age of 67, RadarOnline.com can reveal. Dimond, a television reporter, was best known for hosting a morning show segment called Vibrant Living.
Researcher’s Note – TV star claims discrimination against ABC over COVID-19 vaccine[sic] mandate: Link
Longtime DC journalist and native Derrick Ward dies at 62
January 8, 2025
WASHINGTON, DC — Derrick Ward, a D.C. native and longtime reporter for NBC4 Washington and formerly with WTOP News, has died at 62, both news outlets confirmed Wednesday. Ward died following complications from a recent cardiac arrest, according to a statement from his family and NBC4. Ward was one of D.C.’s most well-known reporters, growing up in Northeast D.C. and starting his decades-long journalism career in radio at WPFM, WAMU, and WTOP before making the switch to broadcast. He’s covered major stories such as the Iran-Contra hearings, the Sept. 11 attack on the Pentagon, and the D.C. sniper shootings, according to NBC4.
Andrea Chris Bailey, 71, of Elgin, IL, died suddenly Jan. 5 in Scottsdale, AZ. She served in the United States Air Force, stationed in Plattsburg, NY, and later was an award-winning journalist as a reporter, columnist, and editorial writer for the Elgin Courier-News and the Daily Herald. Her passion for travel took her around the world, and sharing that exploration with those she loved was her greatest source of joy.
Researcher’s Note - VA urging veterans, staff to get latest COVID-19 vaccine booster: Link
Barstool Producer Jonathan Stanko Dies at 32 Almost 8 Months After Announcing Cancer Diagnosis
January 8, 2025
Barstool [sports blog] employee Jonathan Stanko died on Monday, Jan. 6, following his battle with cancer. He was 32 years old. Dave Portnoy, CEO and founder of Barstool Sports, announced the news of Stanko’s death in a tribute shared on X. “Really sad news from the world of Barstool. We lost Jonathan Stanko to cancer yesterday morning,” he began his post, shared on Tuesday, Jan. 7. In May 2024, Stanko wrote in a blog post that he was diagnosed with Stage 4 Adenocarcinoma gastric cancer in April.
Researcher’s Note - “We Are Not Going Back”: New York City Announces Vaccine [sic] Mandate for Private-Sector Employers: Link
Detroit comedy scene mourns death of local comic Jaded Jaden
January 13, 2025
Jonathan Nokielski, a beloved local comedian known by his stage name as Jaded Jaden, has unexpectedlydied, leaving fans and fellow performers in shock. He was 43. Nokielski, who was named best local comedian in the Metro Times Best of Detroit 2024 reader poll, started as a standup comic and made crowds laugh with his raunchy, crude, and hilarious acts. Nokielski later produced comedy shows and is credited with helping other new comedians get their starts. Details of Nokielski’s death weren’t immediately clear Monday morning.
There has been an outpouring of grief at the suddendeath of Anthony Pinciotti, a leading drummer in jazz, rock and world ensembles, who died suddenly just before Christmas. We are heartbroken to announce that Anthony John Pinciotti passed awaysuddenly on December 24, 2024, at the age of 49. Sracey Kent writes: ‘We only just finished our trip together to Malaysia and our annual December run at Birdland NYC, where we spent another week smiling at one another on the stand and loving playing music together. We are heartbroken, losing Anthony hurts a lot. We said goodbye on 44th street, talking excitedly about our upcoming tour in March, going from Italy to France to Czech Republic to Germany to Poland to France and so on. We’ve got a gorgeous tour lined up for the 5 of us, and we talked about the van we’ve rented and the drives we’d take — the void without him in the band is immense.’
Longtime Brainerd DJ Danny Wild Dies After 6-Month Battle with Cancer
January 12, 2025
A longtime Brainerd [MN] disc jockey has died after a six-month battle with cancer. Daniel Wileman was known as “Danny Wild” on 107.5 The Power Loon, where he served as a morning DJ for 32 years. He left the airwaves last June and returned in December, when he detailed on air his battle with a canceroustumor on his chest. He died Wednesday at St. Joseph’s Medical Center in Brainerd with his wife Joan by his side. Wileman was 60 years old.
Felicia Taylor Cause Of Death: Her Last Journey From Hollywood Roots to Global News
September 27, 2023
Felicia Rodrica Sturt Taylor, a well-known American anchor and correspondent, was born on August 28, 1964, in Los Angeles. She is best recognized for her work with CNN International’s World Business Today and her contributions to CNN’s Business Updates division. Until November 2009, she co-hosted Retirement Living TV’s Daily Cafe. The world was shocked to learn about Felicia Taylor’s passing on Friday, September 8, 2023 [at home]. Her departure at 59 seemed hasty, leaving many unanswered questions in its wake. Felicia Taylor was the child of actor Rod Taylor and Mary Hilem, a fashion model who subsequently changed her name to Mary Schott. Her godfathers, John Wayne and John Ford, had ties to the entertainment industry and were part of her upbringing.
Researcher’s note – According to an Instagram post, Taylor “passed away suddenly in her sleep.” In spite of the headline, her cause of death is unknown.
Hollywood filmmaker Jeff Baena has died at age 47. Baena, who was married to “White Lotus” actress Aubrey Plaza, was found dead by an assistant Friday morning at his home in the Los Angeles area, TMZ reports. Law enforcement sources told the outlet that police and fire responded to the home around 10:30 AM for a death investigation. The director was pronounced dead at the scene with law enforcement reportedly saying he died by suicide.
‘The Spurs Lady’ Sovia Lauriano dies after suffering heart attack, family member says
January 12, 2025
SAN ANTONIO, TX – San Antonio Spurs super fan Sovia Lauriano [74] passed away on Saturday, a family member confirmed to KSAT. Lauriano, who is also known as “The Spurs Lady,” was known for dressing head-to-toe in customized Spurs gear. Over the years, Lauriano became one of the most beloved Spurs fans in San Antonio. She represented Silver and Black every chance she could with over-the-top costumes. The Spurs posted a tribute to Lauriano to its social media accounts on Sunday morning. A family member of Lauriano said she died of a heart attack. Lauriano had prior heart issues, the relative said. She underwent surgery in 2024.
On January 2, Midwest poker player Chris Roth passed away after a battle with cancer. He was 42. Born May 21, 1982, Roth graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and was well-known within the Wisconsin poker community, especially as an Omaha hi-lo player. He had amassed $402,340 in lifetime tournament earnings dating back to 2006 according to The Hendon Mob, which put him 34th on the Wisconsin all-time money list at the time of his passing.
National Finals Rodeo Team Roper Liddon Cowden Passes Away at Just 54
January 8, 2025
The rodeo world has suffered some incredible losses lately and Liddon Cowden was just added to that list. At just 54 years old, Cowden passed in Las Vegas, Nevada on January 1, 2025.
Researcher’s Note - The exact cause of death is not yet known, though some of Cowden’s oldest and closest friends say the California cowboy had been hospitalized in recent times after suffering a stroke. Link
Remembering The Talented Artist And Actor Keller Fornes Who Passed Away At 32
January 7, 2025
The entertainment industry and loved ones are mourning the untimely passing of Keller Scott Fornes, who passed away at the age of 32 on Thursday, December 19, 2024, in Eastland, Texas. A versatile artist and performer, Keller left a mark as an actor, writer, musician, and filmmaker.
San Francisco neighborhood artist, 47, dies unexpectedly
January 12, 2025
Pete Doolittle, the San Francisco [CA] artist known for his ubiquitous paintings on salvaged panes of glass, died “peacefully, and veryunexpectedly” on Thursday, Jan. 2, according to a social media post shared by his longtime partner Claudia Nicolas Pierce. Doolittle, 47, was a stalwart of the Lower Haight, where he could be spotted selling his pieces on Divisadero and hanging out at Noc Noc. Doolittle’s cause of death has not yet been shared.
& made a deal that he would allow all the illegals & refugees in as Trump was elected & Obama et al. had his agenda to islamIZE USA with Tashfeens to kill Americans; Trump signaled he would close it,
The knew Trump was going to close the border to the islamists jihadists, so Trudeau stepped up to work a plan with Obama to let them all into Canada for Obama, with the intent it was steppingstone to USA…Canada is always a stepping stone for terrorists into USA…you think all come up the Southern border from Middle East, Latin America, North Africa etc. But no, many do, but many are coming in via Canada.
Trump needs to grasp that Canada under Trudeau represented a grave Threat to the national security of Canadians but mainly USA for the terrorists seek to enter USA…that’s the goal.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Today we see the result, most terrorists entering USA are from Canada and 100% have valid citizenship and residency allowing them to simply present at the border and be allowed in. Thank God ICE is all over this but some slip through.
This is one of the legacies of Trudeau and Obama. Subversive to their populations.
See that slat shit so called border wall, it’s a joke, we need a 50-foot-high concrete wall 50 feet think with no openings and snipers up top…we were promised similar by Trump in 2015. We wait for it. Not that crap below.
Speaker Johnson Removes Mike Turner as Chairman of House Intel CommitteeHouse Speaker Mike Johnson booted Rep. Mike Turner as Chairman of the House Intel Committee at Trump’s request, WaPo reported.Update: Trump’s team says Trump did not request Mike Johnson oust Mike Turner.False information. https://t.co/PxY0rjy1rw— James Blair (@JamesBlairUSA) January 16, 2025“Speaker Mike Johnson has removed Mike Turner as chair House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, three people familiar with the decision …READ THE FULL REPORT
O’Keefe Confronts Pentagon Official Behind Anti-Trump Plot — Individual Fired by PentagonJames O’Keefe has released footage from his explosive confrontation with Jamie Mannina, a now-former advisor to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, after he told an undercover journalist about the Deep State’s plans to derail the Trump Administration.O’Keefe Media Group released footage from their investigation into Department of Defense advisor Jamie Mannina, revealing that he’s working behind the scenes with third-party …READ THE FULL REPORT
Hunter Biden’s Home Burns Down in California Wildfire — Artworks Worth ‘Millions of Dollars’ DestroyedHunter Biden’s $15,800 Malibu rental home has been razed by the Pacific Palisades Fire.Daily Mail photos show what’s left of the ritzy property, formerly a three-bedroom, three-bath 1950s idyll with panoramic views over the Pacific.Hunter has reportedly lost hundreds of his treasured artworks in the Los Angeles wildfires.According to The New York Post, Hunter’s artworks went up in flames as …READ THE FULL REPORT
Watch: Pam Bondi Explodes on Adam Schiff Mid-Hearing, Calls Out His Prior CensureWhat began as a routine confirmation hearing quickly escalated into a passionate exchange as Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi sparred with Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA), calling out his prior censure by Congress in the process.Schiff asked Bondi, the former Florida Attorney General, about hypothetical cases and her approach to pardons, a line of questioning that grew increasingly tense. At the …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
This is bad! the USA attempted to sabotage the last pipeline to the West, Turkstream.
Russia is angry and cannot wait until Trump gets in
(zerohedge)
Turkey Confirms Key Gas Pipeline Was Attacked After Kremlin Accused United States
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Moscow has this week made a big and provocative accusation, saying that the United States is seeking to sabotage the last pipeline transporting Russian gas exports into Europe, the TurkStream.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alleged in a Tuesday press briefing that Washington is encouraging “terrorist” attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure. He specifically cited plans to target TurkStream, following a recent large-scale drone attack.
“The US does not tolerate competition in any sphere, including energy. They are recklessly endorsing terrorist activities aimed at undermining the energy stability of the European Union,” Lavrov said as quoted in Turkey’s Anadolu news agency.
“They are encouraging their Ukrainian proxies to disable TurkStream following the sabotage of Nord Stream,” he followed with.
He described that Russia’s anti-air defenses were able to down nine Ukrainian drones during the attack which targeted part of TurkStream’s infrastructure.
On Wednesday regional media quoted Turkey’s top energy official as confirming there was an attempted attack out of Ukraine, but that gas is still flowing uninterrupted:
Following an attempted attack on the TurkStream natural gas pipeline on Jan. 11, Türkiye’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, confirmed the attack took place but assured the public that the incident did not disrupt the gas flow.
Responding to questions from journalists in the Turkish Parliament, Bayraktar stated: “There was no interruption in gas flow after the attack. The pipeline continues to deliver gas at the same capacity.”
Following Ukraine’s refusal to renew a key transit contract with Moscow which expired by close of 2024, the TurkStream pipeline remains the only route carrying Russian gas into the European Union.
Russia’s RT news has summarized the geography and significance of TurkStream as follows:
TurkStream is a critical energy corridor, transporting natural gas from Russia to Türkiye under the Black Sea. It also remains the sole route supplying Russian natural gas to southern and southeastern Europe after Ukraine refused to extend a gas transit agreement with Moscow this year.
In 2024, gas shipments via the pipeline increased by 23%, reaching 16.7 billion cubic meters (bcm). The pipeline comprises two sections: one serving Türkiye’s domestic needs, while the other transits gas to Bulgaria through the Strandzha station. This Balkan route extends through Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary, with connections facilitating the distribution of Russian gas to other EU states. With a total capacity of 31.5 bcm annually, TurkStream plays a vital role in regional energy security.
As for Lavrov’s initial accusation Tuesday, which Washington rejects, he also stated: “I have a firm belief that the US needs no competitor in any fields, starting with energy.”
We reported earlier that Tuesday saw one of the single biggest cross-border aerial attacks on Russia from Ukraine since the war began. Several fires broke out at numerous industrial sites, including gas sites in remote Tatarstan.
Russian gas via TurkStream are delivered to locations including Serbia, Hungary, Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina pic.twitter.com/xEmeCpTwf9
Some of the energy hubs hit were hundreds of miles from the front line. Crucially multiple US-supplied ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles were used.
“Ukraine’s military said Tuesday that it also hit points in Bryansk, Tula and Tatarstan, with a chemical factory that makes rocket fuel and ammunition for Russia’s army among the targets,” reports indicated.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Canada
Capital Gain Tax
Even though it has not passed, Rev. Canada will still collect the tax. The opposition are furious. With the Liberals having no chance in the next election, this should be dead. But they are still insistent on collecting the tax. Canada is now lawless!
Ottawa’s Proposed Capital Gains Tax Hike Will Undermine Competitiveness: Study
1
Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA) national headquarters in Ottawa on June 28, 2024. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick
Ottawa’s proposed increase to the capital gains tax would place Canada among the countries with the highest rates in the industrialized world, a new study suggests.
If the increase is implemented, Canada would have the highest capital gains tax rate among the 37 high-income developed countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), undermining its competitive edge, according to a newly released Fraser Institute report.
“The evidence is clear—taxing capital gains deters investment, particularly smaller and start-up firms, which in turn slows productivity gains and innovation, all things Canada needs right now to raise living standards for workers,” Fraser Institute director of fiscal studies Jake Fuss said in a Jan.14 release.
“Instead of raising taxes on capital gains, policymakers should consider reducing taxes as a way of attracting much-needed investment, and reversing Canada’s current economic slump.”
The Liberal government tabled notice of a ways and means motion in September to introduce legislation to raise the taxable portion of capital gains for corporations from half to two-thirds. That means Canadian companies are to be taxed on 66.7 percent of their realized capital gains, up from the current 50 percent.
The policy would also extend to individuals whose capital gains earnings exceed $250,000.
They will pay tax on 50 percent of the first $250,000 of capital gain earned in the year, but 66.7 percent of any gain above that threshold under the new system.
Ottawa has said the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) will carry out the capital gains tax changes proposed in last year’s budget, even though they have not received parliamentary approval.
Despite Parliament being prorogued until March 24, the Finance Department said the CRA will issue taxpayer forms in accordance with the proposed capital gains rules by Jan. 31.
The Conservatives are opposing the move. Shadow Minister for Finance Jasraj Singh Hallan has written to Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc asking him to cancel the capital gains tax hike.
“If he won’t, then at the very least he must direct CRA to stop collecting this tax until after an election,” Hallan said in a Jan. 14 social media post. “The tax hike without legislation has created a lawless state of limbo for Canadians by imposing a tax without ever passing it into law.”
Ottawa has maintained the changes would only impact 0.13 percent of Canadians and 12.6 percent of businesses. The Fraser Institute study argues that the capital gains tax will affect far more people than the government promised.
Research presented in the new report suggests that many Canadians earning middle incomes will face higher capital gains taxes.
“It should be stressed that this change will result in higher taxes on many Canadian families that earn modest incomes yet may own more than one property, and many professionals (such as doctors, dentists, or lawyers) that have equity in their businesses,” the report reads.
Aside from the personal and professional stakes, Canada also has a lot to lose, the study suggests. If implemented, the tax hike will “almost certainly” have a negative impact on long-term economic growth, hurting Canadian living standards, it says.
How Canada Stacks Up
Prior to the increase, Canada ranked in the middle tier for its top capital gains tax rate of 50 percent. Now, with the inclusion rate rising to 66.7 percent at the top end, Canada becomes among the least competitive countries in the OECD.
“Canada now has effectively no capital gains tax advantage over more than three-quarters of OECD countries,” the report reads.
“Canada has become less competitive than countries such as Italy, Germany, and Sweden; countries with whom Canada was previously competitive. Simply put, this marked decline in Canada’s capital gains tax competitiveness will make it harder for Canadian businesses, entrepreneurs, and innovators to attract international investment and improve the economy’s productivity.”
If Ottawa were to lower its capital gains tax inclusion rate to one-third or less, that would make Canada one of the most competitive jurisdictions among OECD countries, the report’s authors argue. If the rate were to drop to 33.3 percent, every Canadian province would have a lower top capital gains tax rate than the majority of OECD countries.
“This would provide a considerable boost to Canada’s attractiveness as a destination for investment,” the study says. “This would foster higher rates of economic growth and help boost living standards for Canadians.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0255 DOWN 30 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 156.26 up 0.048 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2182 DOWN .0060 OR 60 PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4386 UP 0.0049 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 49 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.91 PTS OR 0.26%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 236.82 PTS OR 1.23%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.33%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 236.82 PTS OR 1.23%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.91 PTS OR 0.28%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.33
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 128.02 PTS OR 0.33%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2713.20
silver:$30.72
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 109.20 UP 29 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.3331 (ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3449)
TURKISH LIRA: 35.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.204
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.636-% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.886 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.257 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2718.15
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.78
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 90.77 pts or 1.09%
German Dax : UP 80.71 pts or 0.39%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 16-.15 pts or 2.14%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 57.90 PTS OR 0.90%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 172,83 PTS OR 0.48%
WTI Oil price 79.25 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 81.22 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 102.95 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 45/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5405 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.7645 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.405 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.101 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0303 UP 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR
British Pound: 1.2234 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7295 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.207
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.23 DOWN 0.99 OR 99 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4398 UP .0073 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 73 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.61
Brent OIL: 81.25
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 4.603
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 4.844%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT 4.234
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.372 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.062 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 108.81 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.46 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 103.62 DOWN 1 AND 12/100 roubles
GOLD 2,716.70 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 30.81 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 68.42 PTS OR 0.16%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 146.60 PTS OR 0.69%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.09 DOWN 0.07 PTS OR 0.43%
GLD: $ 250.40 OR UP 1.72 PTS OR 0.69%
SLV/ $28.04 PTS OR UP 0.08 OR 0.29%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 36.88 PTS OR 0.15%
end
TRADING HEADLINES ZEROHEDGE
Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As FedSpeak Sparks Dovish Jump In Rate-Cut Hopes
‘
USA AFFAIRS/HEADLINES /
USA DATA
Initial Jobless Claims Hit 3-Year High (Despite Post-Election Surge In ‘Hiring Plans’)
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 08:51 AM
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, jobless claims exploded higher in the second week of January to 351k – the highest since the second week of 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Adjusted claims also rose from 203k to 217k.
Continuing claims dipped from 1.877mm Americans to 1.859mm…
Source: Bloomberg
Interesting that amid the record surge in small business optimism post-election, that unadjusted claims would soar so high?
Source: Bloomberg
We’re sure it’s just a coincidence and nothing to do with Trump.
END
USA retail sales disappoint in December
(zerohedge)
US Retail Sales Disappoint In December, Despite Surge In Auto Sales & Gas Costs
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 08:42 AM
The all-knowing folk at BofA expect a hotter than consensus print for retail sales this morning, as seasonal distortions play a factor (there were two shifts in the December calendar relative to 2023. First, a late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December. Second, there were four weekends in December 2024, vs. five in 2023. On balance, these factors led to a slightly more favorable seasonal factor (SF) in December 2024 than December 2023)
For once, BofA was wrong with the headline retail sales print disappointing (+0.4% MoM vs +0.6% exp). which dragged the YoY sales growth down a little to +3.9%…
Source: Bloomberg
Building Materials and Food Services saw the biggest declines MoM while Auto sales advanced 0.7% after robust gains in the prior two months, bolstered by President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to end tax credits for electric vehicles, as well as lower interest rates and greater manufacturer incentives. Receipts at gasoline service stations increased, reflecting higher prices at the pump.
On the other side of things, the Control Group – which feeds into the GDP calculation – saw a big beat, rising 0.7% MoM (vs +0.4% exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so adjusting for inflation (admittedly very roughly) we see real retail sales rose just 1.0% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, this data is a positive sign for the consumer still who continues to increase spending (to afford higher cost items due to inflation)
end
BANK OF AMERICA/ LOSSES
Bank of America released its quarterly earnings report this morning, bright and early at 6:45am. And according to their newest financial statements, the Bank is currently sitting on an enormous $112 BILLION in net unrealized bond losses. ( a loss is realized only when your sell, until then the music plays).
To only suggest that this is appalling would be an understatement. However, Bank of America had the audacity to say that their “balance sheet remained strong” throughout 2024.
What hilarious balderdash is this? But then again the music still plays.
Does the Bank seriously think that no one will notice $112 billion in bond losses— nearly FIFTY SEVEN PERCENT of the bank’s tangible common equity? How stupid do they think people are? Mind you the Chinese are masters of illusion with their banking information.
Well I guess they think everyone is a Poodle, dumb enough not to see. It begs one to question whether any Bank Stock is a STORE OF VALUE? Why? Because to be a store of value it must maintain its’ value without depreciating. In a world of electronic banking contagion in one institution can readily spread very quickly. Counterparty risk needs to be evaluated.
What other Banks ride a horse in this same circus of illusion? One should consider carefully not whether such stocks are worth holding but also what this means for the Bank’s ability to lend or its ability to provide liquidity. Because that affects the safety of capital deposits.
Even in countries like Canada there is more safety in government insured deposits in Credit Unions than Banks. And that says a bunch about how leveraged the banks must be.
The next few years will test the metal of many institutions and companies and thus will be challenge to address for the Individual.
END
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
LOS ANGELES FIRES/UPDATE
Armed LA Residents Patrol Neighborhoods In Violation Of Evacuation Orders
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 09:45 AM
With police forces overwhelmed by the enormous scope of devastation in Los Angeles County, residents are starting to take matters into their own hands, defying mandatory evacuation orders to instead guard their homes and their neighbor’s property with firearms.
In response, LA County Sheriff Robert Luna has imposed a curfew, saying, “We’re not screwing around with this; we don’t want people taking advantage of our residents that have already been victimized.” Of course, strong words are little defense against looters determined to prey on vulnerable innocents. Much as the bad guys ignore strong words, so too are plenty of good guys and gals who are opting to defy evacuation orders so they can secure their own property.
“I have no patience for any of [the police],” wealth-management firm president Ross Gerber told the Wall Street Journal. “After you survive this, you don’t care what they say.” Toting a firearm, Gerber has been sneaking into and out of the mandatory evacuation zone to check on his house. He says he’s also joined neighbors in walking the streets and questioning those they don’t recognize.
“I get that [police will] say this is ‘the rule,’ but it’s our land and our neighborhood andas much as I respect the authorities, we’re much more competent than them,” said Gerber, who said a neighborhood WhatsApp channel has proven to be an organizational resource that’s “better than any government.”
Others are staying put in their homes, ready to use gunpower to thwart looters. “I do have firearms and I’ve been calling my friends to make sure I know how to legally exist with them,” Altadena resident EveAnna Manley told KTLA 5. She has a slogan displayed on her Starlink satellite internet receiver: “If You Are Lootin’ We Are Shootin’.”
30 armed homeowners in Altadena defy evacuation orders to protect their homes from looters and flare ups. pic.twitter.com/ruVpbZEyiu
Manley said that, in addition to looters, the defiant residents — who call themselves “the stayers” — are also keeping their eyes out for fire flareups. Manley says she’s helping neighbors by letting them use her shower, doing laundry for them, and even cooking bacon and eggs for them.
The Stayers know that if they leave the neighborhood, they won’t be able to return, as police checkpoints are turning away anybody who tries to enter. For now, police are allowing supplies to come to the checkpoints, where stayers can receive the goods and return to their homes. Manley is grateful for the police barrier: “It’s a ‘hard no’ blockade and I’m glad for that.I want the ‘hard no’ because I don’t want anyone else up here.”
Another Altadena resident, Aaron Lubeley, tells the Journal that he’s been keeping vigil near what’s left of this fire-ravaged property. Sleeping in his SUV, a 9mm handgun by his side, he’s watching his neighborhood for criminals and resurgent fires, saying it “gives me a sense of value and purpose.” While touring his property, he swings from a voice choked with emotion to one filled with humor — as he refers to his burned home’s new “open floor plan.”
As many ZeroHedge readers know, Los Angeles history offers a legendary example of armed citizens banding together to safeguard their property from looting hordes. During the 1992 riots, Korean store owners took rooftop positions and nobly guarded their shops with rifles. Images of the “Rooftop Koreans” continue to serve as an enduring reminder of the power of citizens to safeguard their property when government police cannot or will not do so — and a reminder of why armed self-defense is a fundamental human right.
END
PAM BONDI
“I Speak The Truth” – Pam Bondi Pummels Dems In AG Confirmation Hearing
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 09:25 AM
Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi fielded questions from the Senate Judiciary Committee on Jan. 15 as part of her confirmation process to serve as the next attorney general of the United States.
During the hearing, both sides of the aisle focused on concerns about the weaponization of the Department of Justice (DOJ), which Bondi pledged not to engage in.
Democrats tended to focus on Bondi’s ties with President-elect Donald Trump and her willingness to maintain the DOJ’s independence from the White House. She also encountered questions about illegal immigration, national security, and FISA warrants.
While the Senate is expected to confirm Bondi, Sam Dorman, via The Epoch Times, lays out some of the main topics addressed during the hearing:
Weaponization of DOJ
Bondi repeatedly expressed opposition to what has been described as the weaponization of the DOJ and received multiple questions raising concern about the department’s ability to act independently of political influence.
At the beginning of the hearing, committee ranking member Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told Bondi that her competence and experience weren’t in question, but rather her “ability to say no” to Trump.
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and John Kennedy (R-La.) criticized the Biden administration’s DOJ for its prosecution of Trump by former special counsel Jack Smith.
Kennedy said that deciding to prosecute Trump “broke the seal.” He warned that America was headed down a road in which prosecutors would seek to prosecute President Joe Biden’s inner circle for conspiring to conceal his mental decline.
“You’ve got to fix it,” Kennedy told Bondi.
Senator Kennedy to Pam Bondi:
"You have to fix it. Here is, in my judgment, what I would ask you to do: find out who the bad guys are and bad women and get rid of them. Find out to the good people are and let them up. But do it on the basis of facts and evidence and fairness." pic.twitter.com/0JBinIaRu6
Bondi has received attention for comments she made on Fox News in 2023 when she said: “When Republicans take back the White House … the Department of Justice, the prosecutors will be prosecuted—the bad ones. The investigators will be investigated.”
Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) asked Bondi whether that would include Smith, Attorney General Merrick Garland, or former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who led the House Jan. 6 Committee.
“No one has been prejudged, nor will anyone be prejudged if I am confirmed,” Bondi responded.
She later told Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) that “no one will be prosecuted [or] investigated because they are a political opponent.”
“That’s what we’ve seen for the last four years in this administration,” she said.
“Going after parents at a school board meeting has got to stop,” she said.
She told Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) she would look into an FBI memo about traditionalist Catholics.
Sens. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) (L) and Rick Scott (R–Fla.) (R) question former Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought during a Senate hearing on his nomination to be OMB director, in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Jemal Countess/AFP via Getty Images
Surveillance
As an example of a “bad lawyer” within the DOJ, Bondi offered former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, who admitted to fabricating evidence against Trump during the investigation into alleged Russian collusion—specifically an email connected to a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant application.
Referring to that investigation, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) asked Bondi, “When it comes to Crossfire Hurricane, are those days over if you’re attorney general?”
Crossfire Hurricane was the code name for an FBI investigation into links between Trump’s 2016 campaign and the Russian government that was later found to be without basis.
“Absolutely,” she responded.
Trump has called for reforming FISA courts as part of his plan to “dismantle the deep state.”
Bondi told Graham she would look at reauthorization, saying FISA is “a very important tool.”
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) expressed concern about the federal government intercepting Americans’ conversations without a warrant.
Bondi told Lee she agreed with him that Americans shouldn’t face searches without some kind of showing of probable cause.
Trump and the 2020 Presidential Election
Bondi, who served as a Trump 2020 campaign adviser, was asked by multiple senators whether Trump won the 2020 presidential election. Her responses included stating that Biden is the current president and that there was a peaceful transfer of power.
“I accept the results. I accept, of course, that Joe Biden is President of the United States,” she told Durbin. “But what I can tell you is what I saw firsthand when I went to Pennsylvania as an advocate for the campaign.”
She added that she “saw many things” and that “no one from either side of the aisle should want there to be any issues with election integrity.”
When Hirono spoke, she accused Bondi of being unable to say who won the 2020 presidential election. Bondi gestured toward the mic but didn’t offer any words in response.
“It’s disturbing that you can’t give voice to that fact,” Hirono said.
Bondi told Hirono before that exchange that Biden was the president.
Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) pressed Bondi multiple times for a yes or no answer on whether she had evidence of election fraud or irregularities in the 2020 election.
People attend the “Let the Church ROAR” National Prayer Rally on the National Mall in Washington on Dec. 12, 2020. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times
Bondi didn’t provide a yes or no answer but attempted to give statements multiple times before being interrupted by Padilla.
Padilla also asked Bondi whether she would retract her previous statement that Trump won Pennsylvania in 2020.
NEW: Pam Bondi CLAPS BACK at Dem Senator in heated exchange about the 2020 election.
PADILLA: “Will you now retract your previous statements that Trump won Pennsylvania in the 2020 election, yes or no?”
While responding, Bondi said she traveled to Pennsylvania but didn’t say whether she would retract her statement—prompting Padilla to demand a yes or no answer.
🔥Pam Bondi TORCHES Sen. Blumenthal on false claims:
“I sit up here and speak the truth. I don’t HAVE to say anything to get confirmed by this body.” pic.twitter.com/38b1Edei65
Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) asked Bondi whether she could tell Trump that he lost the 2020 election.
🚨 911, I NEED A STRETCHER FOR THIS CALIFORNIA POLITICIAN.
SENATOR ADAM SCHIFF: Were you asked to investigate Liz Cheney?
PAM BONDI, A.G. NOMINEE: No. Why are we so worried about Liz Cheney? We should be more worried about the CRIME RATE in California – it's through the roof!… pic.twitter.com/tINH3UDlmp
She responded, “What I can tell you is I will never play politics, you’re trying to engage me in a gotcha.”
Kash Patel
Multiple senators asked Bondi about Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee to lead the FBI, saying he had a purported enemies list. They seemed to be referring to a group of so-called deep state members Patel listed in his book “Government Gangsters.”
Bondi said she wasn’t familiar with the comments but clarified that he would serve under her and follow the rule of law as her subordinate.
“There will never be an enemies list within the Department of Justice,” she told Whitehouse.
Bondi also told Whitehouse that she believed Patel was “the right person at this time for this job” while underscoring his experience as an attorney and within the intelligence community.
Patel, on Jan. 15, reposted on social media a video of Bondi praising him.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), citing the so-called enemies list, told Bondi that she should be able to say that Patel shouldn’t be FBI director.
Kash Patel, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for FBI director, arrives for a meeting with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington on Dec. 11, 2024. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Jan. 6 Pardons
As attorney general, Bondi will be able to advise Trump on how he could exercise his pardon power. In recent months, questions have arisen as to whether Trump will pardon many individuals charged in connection to the U.S. Capitol breach on Jan. 6, 2021.
Blumenthal told Bondi that as the people’s lawyer, she would have to be able to say that “January 6th insurrectionists who committed violence shouldn’t be pardoned.”
Durbin asked about pardoning defendants convicted of violent assaults on police officers.
In response, Bondi said: “I have not seen any of those files. … If confirmed and if asked to advise the president, I will look at each and every file.”
She added that she condemned “any violence” against a law enforcement officer.
Bondi also told Durbin she would advise on a “case by case basis.”
When asked by Schiff, she declined to say whether she would caution Trump against a blanket pardon.
“I have not looked at any of those files,” she said as part of her answer.
Her comments were made days after Vice President-elect JD Vance said violent Jan. 6 offenders should not receive pardons.
Immigration
During the hearing, Bondi fielded multiple questions from Democrats and Republicans about immigration. Graham, for example, asked about the illegal immigrant who was convicted of killing Georgia nursing student Laken Riley.
Senate Judiciary Committee members Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) (R) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) question former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi during her confirmation hearing to be the next U.S. attorney general, on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 15, 2025. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Bondi said Americans paid the price for illegal immigrant criminals entering the country and indicated Riley’s killer shouldn’t have been in the United States.
During her exchange with Padilla, he pressed her on birthright citizenship, which is the idea that the citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment grants citizenship to all children born in the United States, including those born to illegal immigrant parents.
When Padilla asked Bondi what the citizenship clause said, she responded, “I’m not here to do your homework and study for you.”
Trump has vowed to end birthright citizenship, potentially setting up a future Supreme Court case.
Padilla went on to ask whether Bondi would defend birthright citizenship, to which she said she would study the issue. In response, Padilla seemed incredulous and stated that her need to study the 14th Amendment didn’t help him boost his confidence in her ability to serve as attorney general.
Hirono also asked Bondi about Trump’s 2023 comment about illegal immigrants “poisoning the blood of our country.”
While Bondi said she wasn’t aware of those remarks, she later said that “we are a nation made up of immigrants.”
“Do I believe immigrants are poisoning our country? No,” she said.
END
“Great News… Good For Everyone” – California Abandons Regulations Phasing Out Diesel Trucks
California’s Air Resources Board sent a letter on Jan. 14 to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, withdrawing its prior waiver request that would have forced a transition from diesel to zero-emission trucks in the state.
The federal environmental agency responded to the board’s withdrawal request on Jan. 14 with notice that no further action will be taken, and the matter is considered closed.
Regulators had previously requested in November 2023 that the agency approve a waiver to allow the state to enforce stricter rules for automobiles and diesel trucks.
Federal authorities agreed to some of the requests, but such related to the diesel truck rules were not yet decided.
“California has withdrawn its pending waiver and authorization requests that U.S. EPA has not yet acted on,” Liane Randolph, chair of the air resources board, said in a statement emailed to The Epoch Times.
“While we are disappointed that U.S. EPA was unable to act on all the requests in time, the withdrawal is an important step given the uncertainty presented by the incoming administration that previously attacked California’s programs to protect public health and the climate and has said will continue to oppose those programs.”
She suggested that President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration could challenge the clean air regulations implemented by President Joe Biden.
With federal government approval of more stringent regulations uncertain, the board could pursue other methods of achieving clean air goals by partnering with private industry, as was done in the first Trump administration.
“The California Air Resources Board is assessing its option to continue its progress as part of its commitment to move forward the important work of improving the state’s air quality and reducing harmful pollutants that contribute to poor health outcomes and worsen climate change,” Randolph said.
“The waivers and authorizations recently approved, along with other existing programs, will advance essential emissions reductions in key sectors as we assess next steps.”
Some industry representatives applauded the decision and said the regulations were practically impossible and too costly to comply with.
“The California Trucking Association has consistently stated the Advanced Clean Fleets Rule was unachievable,” Eric Sauer, CEO of the California Trucking Association, told The Epoch Times by email.
“We look forward to engaging all stakeholders, including CARB and EPA, to continue the trucking industry’s efforts to further reduce emissions in a technologically feasible and cost-effective manner that preserves our state and the nation’s critical supply chain.”
One state lawmaker said the decision to rescind the waiver request would benefit the state’s economy and noted the decision could be one of the other policy shifts seen soon as state agencies respond to a change of power at the federal level.
“I think it’s great news. This is good for everyone,” Republican Leader Assemblyman James Gallagher told The Epoch Times on Jan. 15.
“They’re waving the white flag because they couldn’t get the waiver approved before the Trump administration came in.”
Highlighting the integral role trucks play in delivering many of the goods Californians rely on, he expressed concern that if only electric vehicles were allowed, costs would inevitably increase.
The assemblyman suggested the new decision would help mitigate concerns trucking companies had about navigating mandates that some said were “literally impossible” to comply with.
“From the very beginning, I’ve denounced this policy,” Gallagher said.
“It makes no sense to force everybody to go electric when we don’t have the infrastructure to support it.”
The existing charging network statewide is inadequate for current demand levels if fleets were switched to electric, according to industry experts.
Acquiring heavy-duty electric trucks for sale presents its own challenges, as the prices are much higher, and maintenance and operational costs are yet to be well understood.
“Nobody has real numbers when we ask for details about maintenance and replacement costs,” Nelson Sibrian, owner of Sibrian Trucking based in Wilmington, California, told The Epoch Times.
“With diesel, we know our cost per day to maintain the vehicle.”
Maintenance costs make up most of a trucking company’s operating expenses, he said, and uncertainty about expenditures is problematic.
How far electric semi-trucks can travel before they need another charge is another area of concern. Traditional diesel 18-wheelers can drive more than 1,000 miles before they need to refuel, while industry estimates show similar-sized electric vehicles topping out at about 300 miles before they need charging.
“We need to know all of these things in order to plan,” Sibrian said. “If we don’t know the actual range, it makes it impossible to schedule, and they can’t give me a straight answer on how long [the trucks] will take to charge.”
END
The CBO Lowers Expected Immigration, Birth Rate, And Population Growth
In CBO’s projections, the population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million people in 2055, growing at an average rate of 0.2 percent per year. That rate is less than one-quarter of the average growth rate seen from 1975 to 2024 (0.9 percent per year).
The annual number of births is projected to exceed the annual number of deaths through 2032. Those net births account for about one-sixth of projected population growth during that period; net immigration accounts for the rest.
Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births in CBO’s projections, and net immigration is projected to more than account for the population growth from 2033 to 2055.
Social Security Implications
In CBO’s projections, the number of people age 65 or older grows more quickly than the number of people ages 25 to 54. That difference affects the number of people who are employed, because people age 65 or older are less likely to work and are generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare. In addition, the number of people age 24 or younger declines in CBO’s projections.
Fertility Rates by Age Group
Fertility Below Replacement Rate
In CBO’s projections, fertility rates continue to be lower than the replacement rate—the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration—which is 2.1 births per woman. Mortality rates generally continue to decline, and immigration becomes an increasingly important source of overall population growth.
CBO projects fertility rates on the basis of its assessment of past trends. For the 20 years before the 2007–2009 recession, the total fertility rate averaged 2.02 births per woman. After peaking at 2.12 in 2007, that rate has generally fallen, largely because of lower fertility rates among women ages 15 to 24. The total fertility rate was 1.64 births per woman in 2020 and declined slightly, to 1.62, in 2023 (the most recent year for which data were available when these projections were made). In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate equals 1.62 births per woman in 2025, 1.60 in 2035, and 1.60 in 2055.
The fertility rate for women under 30 is projected to keep falling: from 0.79 births per woman in 2025 to 0.62 by 2055. The rate for women age 30 or older is projected to increase, from 0.84 births per woman in 2025 to 0.98 by 2055, in part because CBO expects women to delay bearing children until older ages.
CBO’s projections of fertility rates are subject to considerable uncertainty. If future trends in fertility differed from what CBO projects, the agency’s projections of overall fertility rates and the age distribution of mothers would change as well.
Net Immigration
Net Immigration Crash
In CBO’s projections, net immigration totals 2.0 million people in 2025, 1.5 million in 2026, and an average of 1.1 million per year from 2027 to 2055.
For 2025 to 2045, CBO based its estimates of net immigration on its assessment of recent trends. After 2045, net immigration in a given year is projected to grow at roughly the same rate at which the overall population grew in the previous year, which is projected to average 0.04 percent annually.
CBO develops its projections of net immigration so they fall in the middle of the likely range of outcomes in the absence of new legislation or significant administrative or judicial changes.
Four Mish Observations
There are many other interesting charts in the report. None of this is a surprise.
Having kids is very expensive so fewer people have them.
Immigration has kept the US growing but Trump will dramatically slow that process.
If Trump succeeds in deporting 15 million, the US would have an instant labor shortage. But he won’t come close.
Florida Congresswoman Maria Salazar, a Republican, has some great ideas.
Her “Dignity Act” would allocate $35 billion in funding to enhance and improve infrastructure and technology between and at ports of entry. It also reforms the U.S. asylum system to make a final determination of asylum eligibility for most asylum seekers at the border within 60 days.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
VDH
KING REPORT
The King Report January 16, 2025 Issue 7411
Independent View of the News
From the Monday and Tuesday King Reports: The big question: When will Fangs join the Expiry Week manipulation? Normally Fangs/Mag 7 are the favored vehicles for pattern rallies…
From yesterday’s King Report: Normally Weird Wednesday marks the peak intensity of the Expiry Week manipulation. So, the usual suspects will play for a rally…
Beyond the beauty, the splendor, the wonder of Weird Wednesday and the expiry manipulation!
On Wednesday, the usual suspects finally went nuclear on Fangs/Mag 7 stocks. This facilitated a massive Weird Wednesday rally. Fin media dolts attributed the manic buying to Dec Core PPI being 0.1 better than expected. “What fools these mortals be!” It was a deferred manipulation for Weird Wednesday and Expiry Week. ‘The pros’ often wait for impact economic data or Fed soirees to appear before they go full bore on the Expiry Week manipulation. With Dec PPI and CPI out of the way, there was nothing on the horizon to derail the Expiry Manipulation and buying for Earnings Season. It’s that simple, Virginia!
December CPI is the expected 0.4% m/m & 2.9% y/y. Core CPI is 0.1 better than expected: 0.2% y/y & 3.2% y/y. Totally ignored: January Empire Manufacturing -12.6, 3.0 expected, 2.1 prior.
Great big bank earnings, released hours before the NYSE opening aided and abetted the Weird Wednesday manipulation: BLK 11.93 (11.46 exp.), BK 1.72 (1.58 exp.), WFC 1.42 (1.35 exp.), JPM 4.81 (4.10 exp.), GS 11.95 (8.21 exp.), and C 1.36 (1.22 exp.)
Forget GDP and other government statistics that are manipulated and faked. The true indicator of economic activity is state tax receipts.
State Tax Revenue Declines Again in Fiscal 2024 but Shows Signs of Stabilizing In fiscal year 2024, inflation-adjusted tax revenue fell in 40 states compared with the previous year’s collections, marking the first consecutive years of decline for most states since the 2007-09 Great Recession. Consequently, tax revenue now trails its 15-year growth trends in 38 states… The two-year trend underscores a growing fiscal challenge. As the nation moves beyond the historic revenue growth of 2021 to 2022, policymakers will have less new funding available for policy priorities such as tax cuts, increased public services, and recession preparedness. Nationally, total tax revenue was 2.8% below its 15-year trend during the second quarter of 2024, after adjusting for inflation and smoothing for seasonal fluctuations. Just two years earlier, actual tax revenue collections were 15% above trend—greater than at any point since at least the Great Recession. For the 44 states that impose a personal income tax, those collections were 11.9%, or $17.2 billion, below their 15-year trend as of the second quarter of 2024, after adjusting for inflation and seasonality. Corporate income tax collections were 18.3%, or $5.7 billion, above their 15-year trend as of the second quarter of 2024… https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/01/09/state-tax-revenue-declines-again-in-fiscal-2024-but-shows-signs-of-stabilizing
@pewtrusts: States that could run their governments for 100+ days on only their savings: Wyoming, Alaska, Arkansas, New Mexico, North Dakota … and fewer than 20 days: Washington, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey 50-state datahttps://pew.org/3ymnhpO
@RealEJAntoni: This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER: Spending is up 10.9%; Receipts are down 2.2%; FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion; They’re handing Trump a ticking time bomb... https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1879338424693637350
DJT is inheriting a crappy economy that was artificially inflated via wanton government spending, bogus economic statistics, Yellen’s scheme to keep issuing short-term debt, Yellen’s use of the Treasury General Account to act as a shadow Fed, and the draining of the SPR.
The energy deflation that lowered PPI and CPI during most of the past two years ended in September. Gasoline traded sideways from October through December. However, gasoline, oil, and natural gas have soared in January. This implies that January PPI and CPI should be sharply higher.
Gasoline and oil soared on Wednesday due to unexpected large declines in their inventories.
ESHs traded mostly modestly positive from the Nikkei opening until they jumped higher when US big banks started reporting earnings near 6:00 ET. ESHs hit 5905.75 (+22.50) at 6:57 ET and then went inert as traders awaited the December CPI Report.
Once again, ESH surged two minutes before the official 8:30 ET release of a US economic report. ESHs hit 5979.75 at 8:45 ET. After a retreat to 5962.50 at 9:38 ET, ESHs jumped to a daily high of 5991.75 at 10:16 ET. Trader profit taking pushed ESHs down to 5955.75 at 11:51 ET.
(NY Fed Pres) Williams: Model Suggest Quarter-Point Rise in Neutral Rate – BBG 11:42 ET.
Fed’s Williams: Higher Government Debt May Have Lifted Neutral Rate Estimate: BBG 11:44 ET.
Williams: Fed Must Wait for Trump Policies to Emerge – BBG 11:19 ET
Obama BFF and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: CPI is encouraging and discouraging in equal measure – NS1 12:21 ET.
Now that Trump will be president, Fed uber doves, like Goolsbee and Williams, are less dovish.
Fed’s Williams Says Doesn’t See Higher Yields Reflecting Big Inflation View Shift – BZN 12:53 ET Fed’s Williams: It Is Hard to Know How Fed Bond Holdings Affect Yields (Bernanke et al bragged that QT was effective rate cuts!)
Williams, like most Fed officials, refuses to see dynamics that they don’t want to see, notably Fed policies that ferment inflation and bubbles.
The Afternoon Rally took ESHs to new daily highs after the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. ESHs hit a daily high of 6001.25 at 15:26 ET. 0dte call holders then started to liquidate; ESHs sank to 5987.75 at 16:00 ET.
US bans popular red dye from foods — 35 years after it was banned in cosmeticshttps://trib.al/zuLOj9K
Positive aspects of previous session Weird Wednesday, Expiry Week, big-bank earnings, and Earnings Season generated a robust rally. USHs rallied sharply (+2 1/32 at high) despite the surge in oil and gasoline.
Negative aspects of previous session Oil (+4.22% at high) and gasoline (+3.28% or 6.9 cents at peak) soared; gold and silver rallied sharply.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the Expiry Week manipulation largely over?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5938.58 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5960.61; 5905.21
Another terrible Biden legacy — freeing more Gitmo prisoners who will terrorize the world; Biden preparing to release 3 more al-Qaeda detainees https://t.co/zN1JxMhxtO
GOP Sen. @BasedMikeLee: The Biden administration’s unelected bureaucrats added nearly 1,000 pages of new law today. Zero of them were passed by Congress. This is wrong. Only Congress is authorized by the Constitution to make federal law. We must pass the REINS Act to stop this tyranny. https://govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR
@StealthQE4: What Biden is doing on his way out the door is criminal.
Team Obama-Biden continue to enact schemes that will impair Trump’s presidency. The media is mum on these egregious acts. You can imagine the outrage if DJT had done this to The Big Guy.
@Osint613: The Israel cabinet will meet tomorrow (Thursday) at 11:00 a.m. to approve the deal.
@aishahhasnie: From Reuters on the deal: Phase one of complex accord entails release of 33 Israeli hostages including all women, children and men over 50 -Talks on implementing second phase to begin by 16th day of phase one and expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, permanent truce and complete Israeli exit from Gaza -Third phase expected to address return of all remaining bodies of dead hostages and start of Gaza’s reconstruction
Arab officials: Trump envoy swayed Netanyahu more in one meeting than Biden did all year A “tense” weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff led to a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations, with the top aide to US President-elect Donald Trump doing more to sway the premier in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year, two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday… https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-official-trump-envoy-swayed-netanyahu-more-in-one-meeting-than-biden-did-all-year/
Today – It’s highly probable that Weird Wednesday was the peak intensity of the Expiry Week manipulation. When there are robust rallies early in Expiry Week and a big Weird Wednesday rally, the remainder of the week is often soft. Traders that got long for the festivities are eager to book profits.
The last-hour decline on Wednesday suggests that profit taking has commenced and/or too many small traders were long 0dte calls. If stocks rally in morning or at midday, be alert for an afternoon decline.
ESHs are +8.00; NQHs +27.00; and USHs -4/32 at 20:45 ET.
Expected Economic Data: Dec Retail Sales 0.6% m/m, Ex-Auto 0.5%, Ex-Auto & Gas 0.4%; Dec Import Price Index -0.1% m/m & +2.1% y/y; Ex-Petro -0.1% m/m; Export Price Index 0.1% m/m & 1.6% y/y; Jan Phil Fed Business Outlook -5.0
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5958; 100-day MA: 5828; 150-day MA: 5712; 200-day MA: 5582 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,482; 100-day MA: 42,696; 150-day MA: 41,710; 200-day MA: 40,974 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5949.91 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5367.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5973.06 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5862.65 triggers a sell signal
@johnrich: Notice all the Dem Senators, no matter which Trump nominees they interrogate, ALWAYS bring up Kash Patel. They’re most afraid of him, because they know he’ll end and expose all the nefarious activity that’s been going on for the past 4 years, and many of them are implicated.
@JamesOKeefeIII: Top Pentagon Advisor Jamie Mannina has just been FIRED per email to @OKeefeMedia from Joint Staff Public Affairs Spokesman Joseph Holstead. Mannina was caught on OMG hidden cameras revealing plans “with a Couple of Retired Generals to Explore What We Can Do” to ‘Protect People from Trump’.https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1879340368925495371
@pepesgrandma: Pentagon advisor who was fired for colluding against Trump was a contractor from Booz Allen Hamilton. Recall Trump’s income tax leaker was from Booz Allen also… https://x.com/pepesgrandma/status/1879384725648761198
Tearful LA fire union prez warned of dangerous fire department understaffing last year: ‘Someone will die’ https://t.co/xVP71LlOeY
How California eco bureaucrats halted a Pacific Palisades fire-safety project to save an endangered shrubhttps://t.co/z2JxSuoFeO
LA fire bosses chose not to deploy available firefighters and engines when Palisades Fire erupted: recordshttps://trib.al/h9JOHmp
@ulriklykke: Greenland’s vast territory is a treasure chest of untapped resources. Greenland has: 38.5 million tons of rare earth oxides; Massive uranium deposits; Vast oil and gas reserves; Precious metals; Some of the world’s largest freshwater reserves… At 836,300 square miles: It is larger than Alaska and Texas combined. From north to south, it spans over 2,670 km.
Biden, 82, says farewell to the nation as he prepares to hand over the White House to Trumphttps://trib.al/asVqG3X
@mattdizwhitlock: INCREDIBLY RICH for Biden to warn about “power concentrated in the hands of a few wealthy people” when their entire political apparatus has been fueled by Arabella Advisors and George Soros for decades.
@KatiePavlich: Biden is saying goodbye… from the Oval by lamenting a lack of so called “fact checking,” which was leftist activists censoring viewpoints they didn’t like in partnership with big tech.
@jimmyfailla: The guy who just pardoned his son for tax evasion charges is giving the “pay your fair share” speech again. What an embarrassment this dude is.
@greg_price11: Joe Biden claims that climate change is responsible for the fires in California and the hurricane in North Carolina.
@danturrentine: I’m stunned. I’m no historian, but, I don’t recall a more dark Presidential farewell address? It’s more a cry to the DNC than accentuating the positive to the country. This is sad.
Joe probably didn’t articulate his farewell to his writers. This is probably the view of his handlers.
—
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
is there anything that Biden has done in these past 4 years right? He eliminates another 4.2 billion dollars in student loan debt
(Pan/ERpochTimes)
Education Department Cancels Another $4.2 Billion In Student Loan Debt
In the final days of his term, President Joe Biden announced the cancellation of federal student loan debt for more than 150,000 more borrowers.
The latest round of relief provides $1.26 billion for 85,000 individuals who attended schools that allegedly “cheated and defrauded their students;” $2.5 billion for 61,000 borrowers with total and permanent disabilities; and $465 million for 6,100 public service workers, the U.S. Department of Education said on Monday.
This latest action brings the total student loan debt canceled since Biden took office to $183.6 billion, benefiting more than 5 million Americans, according to the White House.
“I’m proud to say we have forgiven more student loan debt than any other administration in history,” Biden said in the statement.
Much of Monday’s relief is facilitated through a program called borrower defense, which allows students to apply for debt discharge if their colleges use misleading advertising or otherwise commit fraud.
A legal battle over borrower defense reached the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday when justices agreed to review the Biden administration’s borrower-defense rule, which simplified the application process for affected borrowers and allowed automatic debt discharges in some cases.
The borrower defense provision has existed since 1995 but was rarely used until after 2015, when Corinthian Colleges, a prominent for-profit education chain, went out of business. The collapse prompted widespread complaints from former students burdened with large amounts of debt.
In response, the Education Department issued a rule in 2016 that established a formal process for borrowers to apply for loan discharges. In 2019, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos revised the rule to tighten eligibility criteria and limit the amount of relief that borrowers could receive, assuming they had gained at least some value from their education.
Then-President Donald Trump supported this tightened approach. In 2020, as the Education Department began processing a massive backlog of borrower defense claims, Trump vetoed a bipartisan resolution that would have halted the 2019 rule, saying it would undermine students’ ability to make educational choices that best suit their needs.
In 2022, the Biden administration finalized a new borrower-defense rule designed to provide full relief to borrowers who had received partial forgiveness under the DeVos-era policy. However, the rule has been put on hold since the summer of 2023, following a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.
That court granted a preliminary injunction in April, citing “numerous statutory and regulatory shortcomings” in Biden’s policy. The appellate judges also called some provisions “certainly unlawful” and criticized the rule’s “vague, brand new standards” for holding colleges accountable.
“The unbridled scope of these prohibitions enables the department to hold schools liable for conduct that it defines only with future ‘guidance’ documents or in the course of adjudication,” the judges wrote in their opinion. “Simply put, the statute does not permit the department to terrify first and clarify later.”
The Supreme Court has yet to say when it will hear oral arguments.
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BREAKING: OMG Deep State Date – Jamie …READ THE FULL REPORT
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