GOLD CLOSED DOWN $9.50 TO $2708.50

SILVER CLOSED DOWN 49 CENTS TO $30.83

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2700.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.27

Bitcoin morning price:$102,740 UP 2130 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $104,580 up 3970 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $5.30 TO $943.40

Palladium price; UP $8.45 TO $952.60

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3908.62 down 1.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,909.09 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//JAN 16 2025)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2218.90 down 0.50 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2,219.40 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) JAN 16/2025

*EURO GOLD: 2,628.68 down 6.21 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2,635.88 EUROS PER OZ/JAN 16 //.2025)

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EXCHANGE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,746.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/16/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 01/21/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

190 H BMO CAPITAL 8
323 C HSBC 385
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 280
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 521
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1021
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 18
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 30 13
709 C BARCLAYS 190
737 C ADVANTAGE 50 26
905 C ADM 13

---

TOTAL: 1,279 1,279

JPMorgan stopped 18/1279

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JANUARY/2024. CONTRACT: 1279 NOTICES FOR 127,900 OZ  3.978 TONNES

total notices so far: 11,808 contracts for 1,180,800 Oz (36.728 tonnes)

FOR  JANUARY

SILVER NOTICES: 38 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 190,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1892 for 9.460 million oz

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./

INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.78 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.49 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 463.315 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1098 CONTRACTS TO 154,314 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL ADVANCE OF $0,23  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1669 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE//THURSDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS. THEY FAILED MISERABLY WITH THURSDAY PRICING WITH ZERO LONGS BEING KNOCKED OFF. DERIVATIVE LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THURSDAY COUPLED WITH ANOTHER NEW STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 656 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.00 DOLLAR MARK. THE FRONT MONTH OF FEB HAS A HUGE $1.23 CONTANGO TO SPOT AS THE CROOKS NEED TO PAY A HUGE PRICE AS A SHORT (AND THUS SUPPLIER TO OUR PATIENT WAITING LONGS) THIS UPCOMING FEB CONTRACT MONTH. WE HAD A STRONG 570 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR 656 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 1669 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THURSDAY’S COMEX SESSION

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH YESTERDAY’S FAILED RAID.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: A STRONG 656 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH OUR RAID ON JANUARY 13. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY  $0.23 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1669 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A 570 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 295,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING RISES TO 10.015 MILLION OZ

// STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN  10.015 MILLION OZ 

WE HAD:

/ MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// A STRONG 570 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 656 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 75 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11  DAYS, total 7319 contracts:   OR 36.595 MILLION OZ  (665 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  36.595 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ

JANUARY 2025: 36.595 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1098  CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX/THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 570 EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 570 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  8.110 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 295,000 OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JAN REMAINS AT 10.015 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE 1. A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1669 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR  GAIN IN  PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 656 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. ZERO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT   (656) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, NO DOUBT PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION.

WE HAD 38 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 190,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 16,688 OI CONTRACTS  TO 552,723 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.)

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A HUGE SIZED 1742 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (16,429 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN  OF $24.10 IN PRICE THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 10.1331 TONNES  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 1028 CONTRACTS OR 102,800 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD THE FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS TOTALLING 1700 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ (5.28775 TONNES) ISSUED JAN 6/2025 TO WHICH WE ADD JAN 8 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 150 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES AND THEN FINALLY TODAY’S ISSUANCE OF 85 CONTRACTS//8500 OZ OR .2644 TONNES . NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 38.8506 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) + 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + .2644 TONNES TODAY EQUALS 43.8633 TONNES

/NEW STANDING 43.8633 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $24.10 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 23,318 OI CONTRACTS (72,53 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES ON 3 OCCASIONS .

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 6889 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 552,464

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,318 CONTRACTS  WITH 16,429 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 6889 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,318 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1526 CONTRACTS ISSUED.(ON WEDNESDAY WE WITNESSED THE END OF 5TH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUED BY THE CME.) WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE THURSDAY. MORE MONSTER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S WAS NEEDED FOR REPLENISHMENT TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING (FUTURE RAIDS). WE WILL NO DOUBT SEE A FINAL RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS PRIOR TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION ON MONDAY

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6889 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 16,429 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 23,318 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1028 CONTRACTS OR 120800 OZ (3.1972 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK JAN 17 OF .2644 PRECEEDED BY JAN 8 OF .4665 TONNES AND EX FOR RISK OF 5.2867 TONNES JAN 6////

NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO:

38.8506 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY +

6.0177 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON OUR THREE OCCASIONS IN JANUARY (6TH AND 8TH,17TH)

EQUALS: 43,8633 TONNES

//NEW STANDING JAN: 43.8633 TONNES WHICH I BELIEVE IS THE HIGHEST EVER GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE THURSDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD A 1)  $24.10 PRICE GAIN, AND 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN OF 23,318 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1526 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 53,289 CONTRACTS OF 5,328,900 OZ OR 165.75 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4844 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  165.75 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  165.76 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.67% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES

JAN. 2025: 165.75 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH AND MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1099 CONTRACTS OI  TO 154,314 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 570 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 570 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 570 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1173  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 570 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1669 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS A  HUGE 8.715 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL  $0.23 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS  FRIDAY MORNING THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.91 PTS OR 0.28%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 236.82 PTS OR 1.23%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 128.02 OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.33%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3323 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3478// Oil UP TO 79L69 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.58 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING A

WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.79 PTS OR 0.18%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 61.17 PTS OR 0.31%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 121.14 OR 0.31%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3289 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3558// Oil DOWN TO 78.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING A

WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 16,429 CONTRACTS TO 552,723 WITH OUR STRONG  GAIN  IN PRICE OF $24.10 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AS WE HAD ALSO, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (6889) . THE CME ANNOUNCED TO MY DISMAY 85 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR 8500 OZ OR .2649 TONNES OF GOLD.

THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,318 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED TRADING AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK WITH OUR MAMMOTH T.A.S. ISSUANCES. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. WE FINISHED WITH OUR 5 CONSECUTIVE HUGE 30,000+ ISSUANCES WITH TODAY’S STRONG 1526 CONTRACT ANNOUNCEMENT (FRIDAY MORNING).

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST FRIDAY’S 197 , 199, 2001,   202, 203 , 204 AND 205 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP IS COMING INTO OFFICE MONDAY MORNING. TRUMP WOULD PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FOUND OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THEN THIS WEEK, IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD. AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING SESSION TODAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 6889 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /FEB  6889 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6689 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 23,318 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6889 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 16,688 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $24.10 THURSDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

T.A.S. ISSUANCE

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 1526 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, THE FED(FRBNY) CALLED FOR THE FED-MOBILE TO BE USED TO ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER RAID BEFORE THE TRUMP-MOBILE TAKES OFFICE.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S THIS WEEK, THE FED WAS EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA AS THE GOLD PRICE SKYROCKETED!!

MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WAS EVIDENT IN JAN 6 COMEX TRADING//RAID AND THEN AGAIN WITH TUESDAY’S FAILED ATTEMPT AT A RAID ON GOLD PRICE. HOWEVER NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 39,913 T.A.S CONTRACTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE. ALL OF THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WERE USED TO THWART GOLD TRADING ESPECIALLY BEFORE TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE FED MUST REDUCE ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT OF 82 TONNES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. (WHICH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST)

STANDING FOR GOLD FOR THE PAST 4 PLUS YEARS:

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JAN (43.8633 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  NON ACTIVE JAN DELIVERY MONTH AND I BELIEVE THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR A JANUARY.

JANUARY: 10.1331 TONNES

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 50 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES  EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes

January 2025: 37.8506 TONNES + 5.753 EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + .2644 TONNES TODAY = 43.8633 TONNES

COMEX GOLD TRADING

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $24.10/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY AS THEY WERE TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S RISE AND HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES BUT TO NO AVAIL.

THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER AND JANUARYTRADING

DECEMBER

47 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 14.6836 TONNES. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS JANUARY MONTH

WE NOW BEGIN OUR NEW MONTH OF JANUARY AND LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR JANUARY: 5.7533 TONNES. MERCILESSLY THEY CONSUMATED FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS MONTH 85 EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST NIGHT FOR 8500 OZ OR .2649 TONNES OF GOLD. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM THE SELLER WHICH IS TOTALLY ASSININE.

TOTAL DELIVERIES JANUARY TRADING

WE HAVE GAINED A MONSTER TOTAL OF 73.33 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (10.133TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 1028 CONTRACTS OR 102,800 OZ (3.1975TONNES) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5.7533 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE PRIOR TO TODAY’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .2649 TONNES: NEW TOTAL OF EX FOR RISK = 6.0177 TONNES WHERE THE BUYERS ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY.(ISSUED JAN 6/2025, JAN 8, AND JAN 17).. THIS IS ,OF COURSE, AGAINST ALL RULES OF THE COMEX FORMULATED IN 1974 AS IT IS TOTALLY INSANE FOR A BUYER TO ASSUME RISK OF DELIVERY.

NEW STANDING FOR JAN: 37.8506 TONNES + 5.753 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + .2644 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 43.8633 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH) A NORMAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR A JANUARY IN EARLIER TIMES HAS BEEN GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 TONNE OF GOLD. HOWEVER THESE PAST 4 YEARS QUEUE JUMPING HAS BEEN VERY PRONOUNCED AND THUS STANDING INCREASES DRAMATICALLY.

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $24.10

WE HAD 259 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 23,318 CONTRACTS OR 2,331,800 OZ (72,53 TONNES)

confirmed volume THURSDAY 227,416 contracts: fair ////nobody wishes to play with the crooks

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

/ /// THE JAN 2025 GOLD CONTRACT

JAN 17

INITIAL

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	nil           .     i) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz l kilobar ii) Out of Loomis: 64,302.000 oz 2000 kilobars total: 63,334.151 oz 2001 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	I) Into Brinks dealer; 6484/542 oz (202 kilobars) .202 tonnes of gold
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	i)208,143.114 BRINKS (6474 KILOBARS) ii) 176,830.500 oz (LOOMIS) 5500 kilobars iii) 155,868.048 HSBC customer acct (4848 KILOBARS) iv)385,813.500 oz JPMorgan (12,000 kilobars) v) 65,941.701 oz Malca (2050 kilobars total customer acct 1,022,164.856 oz or 31.79 tonnes customer total dealer and customer deposit: 31.995 tonnes
No of oz served (contracts) today	1279 notice(s) 127900 OZ 3.978 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	361 contracts    36100 OZ 1.122 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	11,808 notices 1,180,800 oz 36.728 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 1

I) Into Brinks dealer; 6484/542 oz
(202 kilobars)

.202 tonnes of gold

we have 5 customer deposits

i)208,143.114 BRINKS
(6474 KILOBARS)

ii) 176,830.500 oz (LOOMIS)
5500 kilobars
iii) 155,868.048 HSBC customer acct
(4848 KILOBARS)
iv)385,813.500 oz JPMorgan
(12,000 kilobars)
v) 65,941.701 oz Malca
(2050 kilobars

total customer acct 1,022,164.856 oz
or 31.79 paper tonnes customer

total dealer and customer deposit: 31.995 paper tonnes

withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz
l kilobar
ii) Out of Loomis: 64,302.000 oz
2000 kilobars

total: 63,334.151 oz
2001 kilobars

2,001 paper tonnes

adjustments:4/customer to dealer

i) Out of Manfra 37,989.564 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan 160,690..698 oz(4998 kilobars)

iii) out of Brinks 64.302 oz 2 kilobars

iv) out of Loomis: 64,334.151

(2001 kilobars)

total customer to dealer: 263,079.078 oz or 8.182 tonnes

thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.

For the front month of JAN: we have an oi of 1640 contracts having GAINED 134 contracts. We had a strong 1420 contract issuance on THURSDAY. Thus ANOTHER MEGA HUGE QUEUE JUMP (GAIN) of 1028 contracts on our two exchanges. (102800 oz or 3.197 tonnes). THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH LONDON VAULTS RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SUPPLY THEM. THIS IS ALSO THE 2ND HIGHEST QUEUE JUMP EVER WITH THE HIGHEST ONE HAPPENING A FEW YEARS AGO AT OVER 5 TONNES.

FEBRUARY SURPRISINLY GAINED ANOTHER 5058 CONTRACTS TO 287,252 AS IT BEGINS ITS COUNTDOWN BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE (JAN 31.2025) EXPECT A MEGA WOPPER OF A FEB DELIVERY MONTH AS THE FRONT MONTH IS NOT DECLINING AT ALL.

MARCH HAD A LOSS OF 29 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 6494

APRIL HAD A GAIN OF ONLY 9441 CONTRACTS UP TO 181,434 CONTRACTS AS MANY ARE REFUSING TO ROLL TO JUNE.

We had 1279 contracts filed for today representing 127,900 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1279 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 18 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JAN /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,808 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN(1640 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (1279 x 100 oz per contract) equals  1,216,900 OZ  OR 37.8506 TONNES. to which we add those criminal exchange for risk issuance of .4665 TONNES (JAN 8) AND 5.28775 tonnes/JAN 6//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO TODAY;S .2644 TONNES = 6.0177 TONNES. THUS NEW STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX FOR JAN IS 37.8506 TONNES PLUS 6.0177 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 43.8683 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:  No of notices filed so far (11,808 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (1640 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1279 x 100 oz which equals  1,216,900 oz (37.8506 TONNES) + 5.753 tonnes ex for risk ( JAN 6 AND 8TH) AND THEN TODAY;S .2644 TONNES = 43.8633 tonnes

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.: 43.8633 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR AND I BELIEVE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A JANUARY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,111,518.168  oz 65.67 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 24,581.865.000 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 11,221,444.433 or 349.03 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,360,420.567 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,109,926 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 283.335 tonnes //

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.511 million oz

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 17. 2025

INITIAL

//2025// THE JAN 2025  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	a) Out of Loomis 600,620.100 oz b) Out of Brinks 1006.36 oz total: 601,626.46 oz .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	i) Into Loomis: 771,078.000 oz ii) Into JPMorgan: 1166,099.400 oz total 1,937,177.400 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	38 CONTRACT(S)    (190,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	111 contracts  (0.555 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1892 Contracts  (9.460 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

deposits:2

i) Into Loomis: 771,078.000 oz
ii) Into JPMorgan: 1166,099.400 oz


total 1,937,177.400 oz

WITHDRAWALS 2

a) Out of Loomis 600,620.100 oz
b) Out of Brinks 1006.36 oz

total withdrawal: 601,626.46 oz

ADJUSTMENT 1 customer to dealer DELAWARE

i) 49,272.318 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.702million oz/330.737million  or 41.33%

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.909 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 330.737 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN /2024 OI: 149 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 45 CONTRACT(S).

WE HAD A 14 CONTRACT ISSUANCE ON THURSDAY. THUS WE GAINED 59 CONTRACTS, THAT IS WE HAD A 59 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 295,000 OZ

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1011

MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 148 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,323. THE FRONT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH ALSO IS NOT DECLINGING MUCH AND WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A HUMDINGER OF A DELIVERY MONTH FOR MARCH.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 38 for 190,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 51,746 poor//

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1892x 5,000 oz = 9.460 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (149) and the number of notices served upon today (38)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN 2025 contract month:  1892 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN(149) minus number of notices served upon today (38)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JAN contract month equating to 10.015 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 10.015 million oz.

There are 71.859 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS/

/JAN 17  WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.78 TONNES

JAN 16  WITH GOLD UP $24.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 15  WITH GOLD UP $24.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 14  WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.53 TONNES

 JAN 13  WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES

JAN 10  WITH GOLD UP $17.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES 

 JAN 9  WITH GOLD UP $13.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES

JAN 8  WITH GOLD UP $5.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES

JAN 7  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 6  WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 3  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 2  WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

 DEC  31  WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

DEC  30  WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

DEC  27  WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES

DEC  26  WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES

DEC  24  WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES

 DEC  23  WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES

DEC  20  WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES

 DEC  19  WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

DEC  18  WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  17  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  16  WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

 DEC  13  WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES

DEC  12  WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

 DEC  11  WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES

 DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 868.78 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

JAN 17  WITH SILVER DOWN $.49 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.315 MILLION OZ

JAN 16  WITH SILVER UP $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ

JAN 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.79 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.745 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ

JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.228 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.218 MILLION OZ

JAN 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.637 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.990 MILLION OZ

JAN 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ

JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ

 JAN 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

 JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ

DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ

DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ

 DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ

 DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ

DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ

DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ

DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ

DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ

DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ

DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 463.315 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

VERY IMPORTANT READ..

PETER SCHIFF….

If We Have Such A Strong Economy, Why Are So Many Americans Struggling?

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 06:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The 10-year treasury yield rocketed up to near 5%, and analysts say it’s because the economy is strong despite higher inflation.

But if the economy is so strong, why are Americans so indebted, cash-poor, and desperate?

10-Year Treasury Yields

Source

The recent spike in 10-year yields has been explained away by many as the result of a strong economy, but they fail to mention that high inflation makes the 10-year yield harder to contain. High 10-year yields support higher rates for things like car loans and mortgages, and with the world still under the inflationary spell of COVID-era QE and free money “stimulus,” the only answer may be—you guessed it—more free money QE to “stimulate” an economy that’s already stuck in an infinite loop of inflation. As Peter Schiff said recently:

“I think that they’ve already lost control of the long end of the bond market…the Fed is going to be pressured to try to lower long-term rates, and the only way it would be able to do that is by buying the long term bonds, and the only way to get the money to do that is to print it.”

But not even the Fed has a clue for how it would deal with a stagnation scenario.

“It was almost humorous and even it got a laugh out of Powell. A reporter asked him at the last press conference, ‘What’s your plan for stagflation?’ And he laughed and says, ‘Our plan for stagflation is that we’re not going to have it.’”

But we already do. For now. markets are also still trying to figure out how to react to Trump’s win, and uncertainty breeds volatility. So, high inflation coupled with uncertainty and “strong” economic data are the three factors being attributed to the spike in yields. The inflation part is partially right; the only problem is that it doesn’t go far enough, because inflation is actually much worse than what’s being reported. The other problem is that the “strong jobs data” being partially blamed for the rise in yields is never really as strong as what gets reported, as the jobs reports and other economic data are unreliable and designed to paint as rosy a picture as possible.

As Treasury yields keep rising, mortgage rates keep going up, and basic needs keep getting more expensive, 2025 is already shaping up to be a marvel of stagflationary chaos. As predicted, the bond market and broader economy are getting spooky, and Central Banks will keep buying gold to protect themselves from the same problems that government and central bank interventions create.

JUST IN 🚨: 30-Year Treasury Yield hits 5% for the first time since Halloween 2023 👻🎃 pic.twitter.com/2xs0htXcMU

— Barchart (@Barchart) January 10, 2025

The question is, how many Americans will protect themselves? The answer is very few, as the average American has hardly any money saved and is living paycheck-to-paycheck while becoming increasingly over-indebted. After all, when economies are extremely weak or extremely strong, they will always be what decides elections even if the root causes go far deeper than any one president, which they always do. 

But when Americans are struggling, seeing drastic price increases, and watching with enraged awe as their government continues donating taxpayer money to proxy wars in Ukraine and Israel as American cities flood, burn, and lose their critical infrastructure, they’re going to vote for the other candidate. So, while Trump signed the inflationary COVID stimulus checks, he was able to convince voters even after losing in 2020 that he should be given another chance after the economic deterioration of the last four years..

Whether or not Trumponomics itself ends up being inflationary, central bank monetary policy will always revert back to the only real tool in its toolbox, which is printing money. Whether or not DOGE, tariffs, and other promises materialize, the result of statist intervention to bring down prices is almost always, ironically enough, higher prices. Even if the intervention causes costs to go down in one place, they generally go up somewhere else. 

That’s because there are no free lunches in economics, no matter what central bankers may say.

Secure

END

2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ALASDAIR MACLEOD….

Gold getting overbought

The sharp rise in Comex open interest suggests short-term caution. But the background for gold’s outlook just gets better and better.

Alasdair MacleodJan 17∙Paid

READ IN APP

Gold and silver rallied this week, though this morning there is evidence of profit taking ahead of the weekend. In European trading this morning, spot gold was $2704, up $15 from last Friday’s close. And silver was $30.50, up 12 cents on the same timescale. Comex volumes in both were moderate.

Open interest in the gold contract has risen sharply, less so in silver. This is illustrated next.

While consistent with growing bullishness, to see gold’s Open Interest rise so sharply brings the risk of a correction with it. What we don’t know is the quality of buying: are they momentum buyers, or are they Managed Money buying on an assessment that the inflation outlook for the dollar is deteriorating, and the Fed is in a difficult position?

Monday will see Donald Trump’s inauguration as president, which will focus minds on the economic consequences of his proposed economic policies. It is commonly accepted that the US economy is growing, though this reflects a large and rising budget deficit and not genuine production. Trump’s tariffs and tax proposals and their consequences are now going to fill the headlines. It’s not hard to guess that higher consumer prices are on their way, which will lead to interest rates not falling as hoped, and potentially even higher bond yields.

This, in turn, justifies a strong dollar. This week the dollar’s trade weighted index paused, consolidating recent gains.

The dollar is likely to continue to be strong against other currencies, which is causing problems for the yen and euro, whose interest rates and bond yields have been left behind and may be forced to rise significantly. The obvious reluctance of the Bank of Japan and the ECB to condone higher rates is already weakening these currencies, with gold hitting new record highs priced in them.

Sterling bond yields already exceed those of the dollar, but with the British government on an economic suicide mission no further comment is required. Indeed, as the chart below illustrates, priced in gold (which is common law real global money) the entire fiat currency complex is losing value at an accelerating rate.

This is the reality of the global monetary situation and the context in which we must regard current market developments. Under President Trump, US inflation will rise driven by tariffs and his tax cutting policies. All major governments (Germany and Canada probably excepted) are highly indebted and cannot afford higher borrowing costs. Unless some miracle happens, the conditions for a fiat currency collapse are rapidly developing.

And finally, returning to the short-term, look at gold’s technical chart:

With Comex futures rapidly becoming overbought, further consolidation may be called for. But with Asian buyers in the market and ETF demand turning positive, any such consolidation is likely to be relatively minor. It is a situation where traders can lose money, but stackers should buy on dips.

end

JOHN RUBINO

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

END

ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST MUST VIEW…YOUTUBE/KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT 206

/LIVE FROM THE VAULT 206

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY

END 

end

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING  THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.79 PTS OR 0.18%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 61.17 PTS OR 0.31%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 121.14 OR 0.31%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3289 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3558// Oil DOWN TO 78.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING A

WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.3289

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3558

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 5.79 PTS OR 0.18%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 61.17 PTS OR 0.31%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 121.14 OR 0.31%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  108.99 EURO FALLS TO 1.0299 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.200 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.73…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4815 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.602 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.140

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.269

3j Gold at $2707.10 /Silver at: 30.24  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 25/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 102.37

3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and  81 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.73  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.200% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9128 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9393 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.578 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.814. DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.232 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.57…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.678 DOWN 3 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.334 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.046 DOWN 2 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

S&P Futures Rise Above 6,000 With Trump Inauguration Looming

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 08:17 AM

US equity futures are higher modestly, rebounding from yesterday’s just as modest loss. As of 8:00am, S&P futures rise 0.4%, with the underlying index poised for its biggest weekly gain since November’s election, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.5% thanks to Mag 7 stocks mostly higher (NVDA +1.3%, TSLA +0.9% and GOOG/L +0.6%) as the latest data and comments from Fed officials suggest the central bank will have room to cut interest rates this year. 10Y Treasury yields edged lower, slipping more than 15 basis points below recent multi-month highs, while the USD is higher. Base metals are mostly higher amid upside surprise on China Q4 and December macro data: Q4 GDP prints 5.4% vs. 5.0% survey vs. 4.6% prior; Retail Sales and IP both surprised to the upside. However, reactions from local Asian markets remain muted. Today, macro focus will be on housing data (Housing Starts and Building Permits).

In premarket trading, all members of the Magnificent Seven are higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.5%, Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3% , Meta Platforms (META) +0.3%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.9%, and Tesla (TSLA) +0.7%. JetBlue and Southwest Airlines shares fall about 2% after BofA downgraded the carriers to underperform from neutral, citing their lower exposure to corporate, premium and international routes. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Bank OZK (OZK) ticks 1% higher after the bank posted 4Q net interest income that topped estimates.
• Fastenal (FAST) falls 6% after the construction supplies company reported 4Q sales that slightly missed as a “slow rate of growth reflects continuation of the soft manufacturing environment that has been sustained throughout 2024.”
• JB Hunt (JBHT) shares drop 9% after the transportation and logistics company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share that trailed consensus expectations.
• Lumentum (LITE) gains 6% after Barclays turned bullish on the photonics products maker, saying it’s an “underappreciated share gain story.”
• Truist Financial (TFC) gains 2% after Charlotte-based lender reported net interest income that was broadly in line with analyst estimates.

A big reason for this week’s stock market outperformance is that swap markets now expect some 40 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Fed this year, following a weaker than expected core CPI print, moving from not even pricing a single quarter-point move earlier this week.

“Even equity managers were more concerned over rates than earnings,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. “What we have had is reassuring data on this front — whether retail sales or inflation — hinting that the US economy may not be overheating. This has allowed for fixed income markets to take a bit of a breather.”

With Q4 earnings just starting, investor focus is also turning to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday and his plans for tariff hikes, tax cuts and mass deportation of undocumented migrants. “Key things to be aware of are whether Trump goes big from the very first day, coming up with executive orders and being very vocal,” Carmignac’s Thozet said. “He has been saying a multitude of things and we will see if he is more talking than acting.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index also gained, rising 0.6%, and on course for its strongest week since September. Basic resources shares led the way after Bloomberg reported that Glencore and Rio Tinto held early-stage talks about combining their businesses. The news, alongside a weaker pound, helped London’s FTSE 100 hit a record high. China-focused European sectors such as retail and auto also climbed after data suggested Beijing’s stimulus blitz is succeeding in shoring up economic growth. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• European miner stocks rise after Bloomberg reported that Rio Tinto and Glencore have recently held early-stage talks about a combination; Rio Tinto +1.3%, Glencore +2.3%
• SUSS MicroTec shares rise as much as 36%, the most on record, after the German semiconductor equipment manufacturer reported preliminary results that Stifel said topped expectations due to sales and Ebit beats
• Avolta shares rise as much as 9.6%, the steepest gain since July 2022, after the world’s largest duty-free operator announced a share buyback of as much as CHF200 million
• Smiths Group shares rise as much as 4.7%, briefly hitting a record high, after one of its shareholders called on the company to explore a breakup, arguing in a letter that a sale of the entire business or its units could improve its valuation
• Evoke shares jump as much as 12%, hitting their highest level since July, after the gambling company said its annual adjusted Ebitda will be the high end of its guidance range for 2024, prompting analysts to lift their earnings estimates
• Sanofi shares rise as much as 1.8% to the highest level since Oct. 29 after Berenberg analysts said the drugmaker’s valuation is “highly attractive.”
• Schroders shares rise as much as 1.8% after it said it plans to cut as much as 3% of its workforce
• Maire shares rise as much as 8.8% after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Kevin Roger raised the recommendation on the Italian company to buy from hold, mentioning potential growth prospects
• Medcap shares fall as much as 30% after the Swedish life science investment firm’s preliminary 4Q figures showed “significantly lower earnings in business area Specialty Pharma” due to increased competition in the British market for melatonin
• Tenaris shares fall 0.5% before erasing the decline after Kepler Cheuvreux cuts to hold from buy, saying it sees limited upside for the Luxembourg-based oil-pipe maker

Earlier, Asian stocks snapped a three-day winning streak, led by losses in Japan after the yen strengthened on an outlook for higher interest rates while largely shrugging off news that China’s economy had expanded at its fastest pace in six quarters to hit the government’s growth goal last year. Analysts say the growth report for 2024 is overshadowed by looming US tariffs on Chinese exports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.7% before erasing most of the loss. Korean companies Hyundai and Samsung were among the worst performers on the regional gauge. Shares in Hong Kong and mainland China advanced after data showed the world’s second-largest economy hit the government growth target last year. Market weakness is expected to continue into next week’s meeting as the BOJ maintains cautiousness, said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “If we get only talk and no rate hike from the BOJ, then expect a sharp reversal” toward a weaker yen. Despite Friday’s drop, the key Asian stock gauge is still on track to eke out its first weekly gain of the year.

In currency markets, Bloomberg’s dollar index rose 0.1%, as data continue to highlight the strength of the US economy relative to developed-market peers. The pound slipped as much as 0.6% to near the weakest level since November 2023, after a surprise drop in retail sales added to evidence of a struggling British economy. The yen briefly strengthened through 155 against the dollar early Friday as expectations ramp up for an interest rate hike by the BOJ; it has since retreated and was the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar even as traders boost bets on the BOJ raising rates next week. Despite the drop, the Japanese currency is still up more than 1% versus the dollar for the week. Tightening in Japan comes amid uncertain prospects for cuts by the Federal Reserve amid recent US economic data.

In rates, treasury futures hold small gains as US session gets under way, with yields at or near weekly lows. Long-end tenors lead, richer by more than 3bp, flattening the curve. UK gilts pace gains for government bonds globally for a second straight day, with yields lower by 5bp-7bp, after weaker-than-expected UK retail sales figures boosted wagers on BOE easing. Fed’s self-imposed quiet period ahead of Jan. 29 rate decision begins Saturday. With US front-end yields little changed, 2s10s spread is nearly 3bp flatter on the day; US 10-year around 3bp richer at 4.59%, trails UK counterpart by 3bp in the sector while keeping pace with Germany’s. Bunds stayed higher as euro area CPI was confirmed at 2.4% year-on-year in December. IG credit new-issue slate is dormant after GSIBs dominated an eight-deal, $27.6b calendar Thursday, taking weekly supply to nearly $47b, beyond the $40b projected

In commodities, WTI rises 0.6% to $79.20 a barrel. Spot gold drops $10 to $2,705/oz. Bitcoin rises 2% above $102,000.

The US economic data calendar includes December housing starts/building permits (8:30am), December industrial production (9:15am) and November TIC flows 4pm. Fed speaker slate is blank

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,997.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 523.45
• MXAP down 0.1% to 178.81
• MXAPJ little changed at 564.48
• Nikkei down 0.3% to 38,451.46
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,679.42
• Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,584.06
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,241.82
• Sensex down 0.5% to 76,635.61
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 8,310.38
• Kospi down 0.2% to 2,523.55
• German 10Y yield down 2 bps at 2.53%
• Euro little changed at $1.0298
• Brent Futures little changed at $81.33/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,708.07
• US Dollar Index up 0.11% to 109.08

Top Overnight News

• Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter; dissenter) says Fed can be patient on rate cuts; inflation remains an issue; adds that monpol is only moderately restrictive: WSJ
• BofA weekly total card spending: -0.8% Y/Y, “LA wildfire impact seems to be more localised since total card spending in California has only slowed modestly so far”.
• US President Trump reportedly planning an aggressive immigration in the first hours of his administration: “The package of actions amounts to a dramatic shift in immigration policy that will affect immigrants already residing in the United States and migrants seeking asylum at the US-Mexico border.” – CNN
• China’s economic data comes in ahead of expectations, including Q4 GDP (+5.4% vs. the Street +5%), industrial production (+6.2% vs. the Street +5.4%), and retail sales (+3.7% vs. the Street +3.6%). RTRS
• A rally in Chinese government debt has sent yields to record lows and they may have further downside as the US trade tensions compound existing economic woes. That risks weighing even more on the yuan. BBG
• Swap market traders raised their bets to near certainty of a BOJ interest-rate hike next week, climbing from 71% on Wednesday. Almost three quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg also predict a hike. BBG
• Israel said it finalized an agreement with Hamas to pause the war in Gaza, suggesting a ceasefire is on track to begin on Sunday. The cabinet started a meeting to ratify the deal. BBG
• The Yemen-based Houthis signaled a pause in their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal. BBG
• UK retail sales were quite soft in Dec, falling 0.6% M/M (vs. the Street consensus of +0.3%) while Nov was revised lower (from +0.3% to +0.1%). RTRS
• Trump has already prepared about 100 executive orders in a bid to take action quickly after his inauguration. The president-elect told Senate Republicans that he won’t wait on them to start implementing immigration and trade reforms. BBG
• President-elect Donald Trump is planning to release an executive order elevating crypto as a policy priority and giving industry insiders a voice within his administration. BBG
• Canada’s Central Bank will soon announce the end of its quantitative tightening program, deputy governor Toni Gravelle said on Thursday, making it one of the first central banks globally to stop unwinding pandemic-era asset purchases. RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data. ASX 200 traded indecisively as weakness in the top-weighted financials sector and telecoms clouded over the marginal gains in most sectors, while the index also failed to benefit from the mostly better-than-expected data in Australia’s largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 continued to underperform amid recent currency strength and the potential for a BoJ rate hike next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China’s economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024. Nonetheless, the data only briefly supported Chinese stocks which were ultimately rangebound after the mixed commentary from the stats bureau which noted the impact of external environment changes is deepening, domestic demand is not sufficient, and economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges but also stated that positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025. In addition, US-China trade frictions continued to linger after the USTR found China shipbuilding to be actionable under Section 301.

Top Asian News

• Majority of BoJ board members poised to approve a rate hike next week, according to Nikkei sources; some of the board hold cautious view; the final decision will come after Trump’s inauguration.
• China’s stats bureau said China’s economic operations were generally steady in 2024, but the impact from external environment changes is deepening and domestic demand is not sufficient, while it added that economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges. China stats bureau head said China’s economic achievements in 2024 were hard won but China policy stimulus was timely and boosted confidence and growth, as well as noted they will continue to promote economic recovery and implement more pro-active economic policies. The stats bureau head said positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025 and he is fully confident about China’s economic development in 2025, while he added that facing external changes, China will prioritise boosting domestic demand especially consumption.
• US Trade Representative said China’s dominance of maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors is actionable under Section 301 statute but did not make specific recommendations. USTR said China’s targeting of maritime sectors is enabled by forced labour, lack of labour rights, and excess capacity in steel and other areas, while it displaces foreign firms, lessens competition and creates dependence on China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to the US report about China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors, while it will closely monitor US actions and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. MOFCOM also said the relevant investigation is marked by ‘unilateralism and protectionism’, while it added the ‘decline’ of the US shipbuilding industry has nothing to do with China and it urged the US to stop shifting problems in its domestic industrial development onto China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry requested the WTO to set up an expert group on Turkey’s restrictions on electric vehicles imported from China and said the next step will be to start a litigation process in accordance with WTO rules.
• BoJ is reportedly likely to hike in January barring any major Trump-driven market shocks, via Reuters citing sources; will make no major change to guidance that they will keep increasing rates. BoJ is unlikely to offer explicit guidance on the pace of future tightening or how far rates could eventually go, while source added “the market seems to have gotten the BoJ’s message”.

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) opened modestly firmer across the board and have continued to climb since the cash open; as it stands, indices reside near best levels. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with Autos & Parts leading the gains whilst Tech is the marginal laggard, as it trades on either side of the unchanged mark, paring the TSMC-induced upside seen in the prior day. US equity futures are modestly in positive territory, attempting to make up for the lacklustre performance in the prior session and garnering optimism via a strong European session thus far.

Top European News

• ECB’s Stournaras says easing should continue with a series of cuts, via Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Nagel says there is no doubt that the German economy is experiencing a pronounced growth weakness

FX

• DXY is marginally higher with the dollar gaining some strength at the hands of a softer GBP and JPY. DXY remains within yesterday’s 108.82-109.38 trading band. Docket ahead is light.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD in quiet EZ-specific newsflow other than comments from dovish GC member Stournaras noting that easing should continue with a series of cuts and news that French PM Bayrou survived a no-confidence motion against the government. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.0259-1.0314. EZ HICP Finals saw modest downward revisions to some components, but had little impact on price action.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD after two hefty sessions of gains. Source reporting surrounding the BoJ continues to indicate that a 25bps hike is likely on the horizon. The Nikkei reports that a majority of BoJ board members are poised to approve a rate hike next week with the final decision set to come after Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY just about briefly dipped below 155 with a 154.99 low.
• GBP is on the backfoot in what has been an indecisive week for Cable with the pair broadly pivoting around the 1.22 mark. Today’s selling pressure has been triggered by a soft outturn for UK retail sales which unexpectedly contracted on a M/M basis. Cable briefly broke below yesterday’s low at 1.2174 before trimming downside.
• Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD and unable to benefit from a better-than-expected outturn for Chinese GDP, retail sales and industrial production.

Fixed Income

• USTs are modestly firmer, but yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark. Derived a modest bid from action across the pond as Gilts lifted on the back of soft Retail Sales metrics for December. At a 108-22+ peak but with ranges narrow and the low at just 108-16+.
• JGBs are once again the modest underperformer on the account of more sources pointing to a BoJ hike in January.
• Bunds lifted off their 131.50 base (following UK Retail Sales) to a 131.88 session high over the course of the morning. EZ HICP (Finals) saw modest downward revisions; ahead, a few ECB speakers are due.
• Gilts gapped higher at the open by 27 ticks and then extended further to a 91.89 peak. A move which was driven by soft Retail Sales for December, metrics which complete the week’s set of dovish UK data and cement the view that February is a live meeting with a strengthening market bias towards a cut occurring. The 91.89 peak marks a WTD high and has Gilts on track to close the week out with gains of c. 250 ticks from the 89.00 open and 88.96 WTD low just below that.

Commodities

• A firm Friday session in the crude complex as risk appetite grinds higher in early European hours, with the crude benchmarks also supported by constructive Chinese GDP and activity data. WTI Feb resides in a current 78.65-79.44/bbl range and Brent Mar trades within 81.37-81.93/bbl.
• Subdued price action in the metal complex as the Dollar continues to grind higher, and with the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape more constructive after yesterday’s blip surrounding last-minute tweaks to the Israel-Hamas deal. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,705.81-2,717.43/oz range.
• Mixed trade in the base metal complex despite the constructive Chinese data overnight and the risk appetite in the European morning. 3M LME copper ekes mild gains and resides in a current narrow USD 9,239.00-9,295.50.t range.
• Colonial Pipeline now estimates an earlier-than-expected restart of Line 1 on Friday after it made progress with on-site work to identify the source of a leak on Line 1 and began repairs.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hamas says issues regarding ceasefire deal resolved on Friday, according to a statement.
• “Israel’s security cabinet ratifies Gaza agreement”, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel security cabinet begins meeting to vote on Gaza ceasefire, hostage release deal, according AFP.
• Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media.
• Reports suggest that the demand by Israel’s Finance Minister Smotrich were met, following him stating to PM Netanyahu that he would resign if not.

Geopolitics: Other

• French Defence Minister says French maritime patrol aircraft was the target of Russian intimidation measured in Baltics; France calls the measures unacceptable.
• Chinese hackers reportedly accessed Treasury Secretary Yellen’s computer in the US Treasury breach, according to Bloomberg.
• North Korean Foreign Ministry said it will exercise its thorough right to self-defence, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Dec. Building Permits, est. 1.46m, prior 1.49m
  • Dec. Building Permits MoM, est. -2.2%, prior 5.2%
  • Dec. Housing Starts, est. 1.33m, prior 1.29m
  • Dec. Housing Starts MoM, est. 3.0%, prior -1.8%
• 09:15: Dec. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
  • Dec. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 09:15: Dec. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.0%, prior 76.8%
• 16:00: Nov. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $203.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, with bonds and most equities posting a fresh advance, despite a slump for the Magnificent 7 (-1.92%) pushing down the S&P 500 (-0.21%). The big focus for investors was on Scott Bessent’s nomination hearing to become US Treasury Secretary, but the largest moves of the day were actually driven by comments from Fed Governor Waller. He sounded open to a rate cut as soon as March, and also said that 3 or 4 cuts were possible this year if the data cooperated. So those comments pushed back against the more hawkish narrative that developed because of strong data like the jobs report last week. And if we did end up with 3 or 4 cuts, that would be a faster pace than the Fed’s dot plot showed only last month, when the median dot pencilled in just 2 cuts this year.

After Waller’s comments, investors swiftly dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the likelihood of a cut by the May meeting moved up to 56%, and the total number of cuts by the December meeting moved up +3.3bps to 42.5bps. Those moves kept up the momentum from the CPI report on Wednesday, which helped to revive investors’ hopes that the Fed were still on a path to cut rates. So that meant it was a strong day for US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield (-4.0bps) down to 4.61%, whilst the 2yr yield (-3.5bps) fell to 4.23%.

In the meantime, when it came to Scott Bessent’s hearing to become US Treasury Secretary, the most notable comment was regarding new Russian sanctions, with Bessent saying he would support sanctions on Russian oil majors. But otherwise, his remarks were broadly in line with our understanding of existing policy. For example, Bessent called for an extension of tax cuts, saying that they would face “an economic calamity” if they didn’t renew them. Separately, he said that “we must ensure that the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency”. And on fiscal policy, he said that the US “must work to get our fiscal house in order”. By the close, the dollar index had weakened -0.12%, but the main move lower came earlier in response to Waller’s comments, rather than anything Bessent said.

Ahead of all that, we had a reasonably positive set of US data yesterday. The strongest was the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey, which surged to 44.3 in January (vs. -5.0 expected). That’s the highest reading for the index since April 2021, as well as the biggest monthly jump in the index since June 2020. Otherwise, some of the hard data was more mixed, with retail sales ex autos up by +0.4% in December (vs. +0.5% expected), but the retail control group up by a stronger +0.7% (vs +0.4% expected). Meanwhile, initial jobless claims moved up to 217k in the week ending January 11 (vs. 210k expected). So with that pretty good set of data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 ticked up to an annualised pace of +3.0%.

Despite the solid backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.21%) declined for the first time this week, but this was primarily due to drag from the big tech firms as all of the Magnificent 7 (-1.92%) lost ground. By contrast, around three-quarters of the S&P 500’s constituents advanced on the day, led by rate-sensitive sectors. In fact, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was up +0.81% yesterday, bringing its gains for the week up to +3.42% so far. So even if the equal-weighted index is unchanged today, that would make it the second-best weekly performance in the last year, only behind the week of the US election in November.
Over in Europe, equities put in a much stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.98%) up to a one-month high, with France’s CAC 40 (+2.14%) posting the largest advance of the major indices amid strong gains for luxury stocks. That advance came just before French Prime Minister Bayrou survived a confidence vote in the National Assembly, thanks to abstentions from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, as well as the Socialists. And in Germany, the DAX (+0.39%) hit an all-time high with just over 5 weeks until the federal election.

Meanwhile in the UK, gilts outperformed for a second day running after the latest growth data was weaker than expected. It showed the UK economy only grew by +0.1% in November, (vs. +0.2% expected), and if you look at the full three months to November, the economy was stagnant compared to the previous three months. So after the downside inflation surprise on Wednesday, that led investors to expect more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, with 65bps now priced in by the December meeting. In turn, that led gilt yields to fall across the curve, with the 2yr yield down -8.1bps, and the 10yr yield own -5.1bps.

Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-1.5bps) and OATs (-1.8bps) posted a modest decline following the US rates move lower. We did get the account from the ECB’s December meeting as well, which confirmed the prevailing view that further cuts were still likely. And notably, there was some discussion of a larger 50bp cut, with the account saying that some members “would have favoured more consideration being given to the possibility of such a larger cut.” But ultimately, they only cut by 25bps, and the account said “it was remarked that a 50 basis point cut could be perceived as the ECB having a more negative view of the state of the economy than was actually the case.”

Overnight in Asia, the main story has been China’s GDP data, which showed the economy grew by +5.0% in 2024 as a whole. Moreover, the Q4 number was stronger than expected, with GDP up +5.4% on a year-on-year basis (vs. +5.0% expected). And some of the monthly data for December also surprised on the upside, with industrial production up +6.2% y/y (vs. +5.4% expected), whilst retail sales were up +3.7% y/y (vs. +3.6% expected).

Against that backdrop, Chinese equities have advanced this morning, with solid gains for the CSI 300 (+0.77%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.55%). But elsewhere in Asia there’ve been losses this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei (-0.38%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.28%) both losing ground. Looking forward however, US and European equity futures are all positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.22%) and the DAX (+0.15%) pointing higher.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits for December, and in the UK there’s also retail sales for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel, Escriva and Centeno.

2B) EUROPEAN REPORT

Stocks edge higher, JGBs lag on further BoJ sources, UK Retail sales weigh on GBP – Newsquawk US Market Open

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 05:38 AM

• European bourses grind higher, US futures modestly in the green.
• USD marginally firmer, JPY softer and GBP knocked lower by disappointing retail sales.
• JGBs lag slightly on further BoJ reports, Gilts gapped higher on Retail Sales.
• Mixed trade in the base metal complex but crude stays firm.
• Looking ahead, US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB’s Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) opened modestly firmer across the board and have continued to climb since the cash open; as it stands, indices reside near best levels.
• European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with Autos & Parts leading the gains whilst Tech is the marginal laggard, as it trades on either side of the unchanged mark, paring the TSMC-induced upside seen in the prior day.
• US equity futures are modestly in positive territory, attempting to make up for the lacklustre performance in the prior session and garnering optimism via a strong European session thus far.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is marginally higher with the dollar gaining some strength at the hands of a softer GBP and JPY. DXY remains within yesterday’s 108.82-109.38 trading band. Docket ahead is light.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD in quiet EZ-specific newsflow other than comments from dovish GC member Stournaras noting that easing should continue with a series of cuts and news that French PM Bayrou survived a no-confidence motion against the government. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.0259-1.0314. EZ HICP Finals saw modest downward revisions to some components, but had little impact on price action.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD after two hefty sessions of gains. Source reporting surrounding the BoJ continues to indicate that a 25bps hike is likely on the horizon. The Nikkei reports that a majority of BoJ board members are poised to approve a rate hike next week with the final decision set to come after Trump’s inauguration. USD/JPY just about briefly dipped below 155 with a 154.99 low.
• GBP is on the backfoot in what has been an indecisive week for Cable with the pair broadly pivoting around the 1.22 mark. Today’s selling pressure has been triggered by a soft outturn for UK retail sales which unexpectedly contracted on a M/M basis. Cable briefly broke below yesterday’s low at 1.2174 before trimming downside.
• Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD and unable to benefit from a better-than-expected outturn for Chinese GDP, retail sales and industrial production.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1889 vs exp. 7.3275 (prev. 7.1881).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are modestly firmer, but yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark. Derived a modest bid from action across the pond as Gilts lifted on the back of soft Retail Sales metrics for December. At a 108-22+ peak but with ranges narrow and the low at just 108-16+.
• JGBs are once again the modest underperformer on the account of more sources pointing to a BoJ hike in January.
• Bunds lifted off their 131.50 base (following UK Retail Sales) to a 131.88 session high over the course of the morning. EZ HICP (Finals) saw modest downward revisions; ahead, a few ECB speakers are due.
• Gilts gapped higher at the open by 27 ticks and then extended further to a 91.89 peak. A move which was driven by soft Retail Sales for December, metrics which complete the week’s set of dovish UK data and cement the view that February is a live meeting with a strengthening market bias towards a cut occurring. The 91.89 peak marks a WTD high and has Gilts on track to close the week out with gains of c. 250 ticks from the 89.00 open and 88.96 WTD low just below that.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• A firm Friday session in the crude complex as risk appetite grinds higher in early European hours, with the crude benchmarks also supported by constructive Chinese GDP and activity data. WTI Feb resides in a current 78.65-79.44/bbl range and Brent Mar trades within 81.37-81.93/bbl.
• Subdued price action in the metal complex as the Dollar continues to grind higher, and with the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape more constructive after yesterday’s blip surrounding last-minute tweaks to the Israel-Hamas deal. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,705.81-2,717.43/oz range.
• Mixed trade in the base metal complex despite the constructive Chinese data overnight and the risk appetite in the European morning. 3M LME copper ekes mild gains and resides in a current narrow USD 9,239.00-9,295.50.t range.
• Colonial Pipeline now estimates an earlier-than-expected restart of Line 1 on Friday after it made progress with on-site work to identify the source of a leak on Line 1 and began repairs.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK Retail Sales MM (Dec) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.1%); Ex-Fuel -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.1%)
• UK Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.6% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.0%); Ex-Fuel YY 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. -0.5%)
• EU HICP-X F&E MM (Dec) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.4%); HICP Final MM (Dec) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%); HICP-X F&E Final YY (Dec) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%); HICP Final YY (Dec) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%); HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY (Dec) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
• EU Current Account NSA,EUR (Nov) 34.62B (Prev. 32.0B) Current Account SA, EUR (Nov) 26.98B (Prev. 25.8B)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB’s Stournaras says easing should continue with a series of cuts, via Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Nagel says there is no doubt that the German economy is experiencing a pronounced growth weakness

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter; dissenter) says Fed can be patient on rate cuts; inflation remains an issue; adds that monpol is only moderately restrictive, WSJ reports.
• BofA weekly total card spending: -0.8% Y/Y, “LA wildfire impact seems to be more localised since total card spending in California has only slowed modestly so far”.
• US President Trump reportedly planning an aggressive immigration in the first hours of his administration, via CNN citing sources. Article writes “The package of actions amounts to a dramatic shift in immigration policy that will affect immigrants already residing in the United States and migrants seeking asylum at the US-Mexico border.”

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Hamas says issues regarding ceasefire deal resolved on Friday, according to a statement.
• “Israel’s security cabinet ratifies Gaza agreement”, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel security cabinet begins meeting to vote on Gaza ceasefire, hostage release deal, according AFP.
• Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media.
• Reports suggest that the demand by Israel’s Finance Minister Smotrich were met, following him stating to PM Netanyahu that he would resign if not.

OTHER

• French Defence Minister says French maritime patrol aircraft was the target of Russian intimidation measured in Baltics; France calls the measures unacceptable.
• Chinese hackers reportedly accessed Treasury Secretary Yellen’s computer in the US Treasury breach, according to Bloomberg.
• North Korean Foreign Ministry said it will exercise its thorough right to self-defence, according to KCNA.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on a firmer footing and holds just shy of USD 102k; Ethereum tops USD 2.4k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.
• ASX 200 traded indecisively as weakness in the top-weighted financials sector and telecoms clouded over the marginal gains in most sectors, while the index also failed to benefit from the mostly better-than-expected data in Australia’s largest trading partner.
• Nikkei 225 continued to underperform amid recent currency strength and the potential for a BoJ rate hike next week.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China’s economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024. Nonetheless, the data only briefly supported Chinese stocks which were ultimately rangebound after the mixed commentary from the stats bureau which noted the impact of external environment changes is deepening, domestic demand is not sufficient, and economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges but also stated that positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025. In addition, US-China trade frictions continued to linger after the USTR found China shipbuilding to be actionable under Section 301.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Majority of BoJ board members poised to approve a rate hike next week, according to Nikkei sources; some of the board hold cautious view; the final decision will come after Trump’s inauguration.
• China’s stats bureau said China’s economic operations were generally steady in 2024, but the impact from external environment changes is deepening and domestic demand is not sufficient, while it added that economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges. China stats bureau head said China’s economic achievements in 2024 were hard won but China policy stimulus was timely and boosted confidence and growth, as well as noted they will continue to promote economic recovery and implement more pro-active economic policies. The stats bureau head said positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025 and he is fully confident about China’s economic development in 2025, while he added that facing external changes, China will prioritise boosting domestic demand especially consumption.
• US Trade Representative said China’s dominance of maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors is actionable under Section 301 statute but did not make specific recommendations. USTR said China’s targeting of maritime sectors is enabled by forced labour, lack of labour rights, and excess capacity in steel and other areas, while it displaces foreign firms, lessens competition and creates dependence on China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to the US report about China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors, while it will closely monitor US actions and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. MOFCOM also said the relevant investigation is marked by ‘unilateralism and protectionism’, while it added the ‘decline’ of the US shipbuilding industry has nothing to do with China and it urged the US to stop shifting problems in its domestic industrial development onto China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry requested the WTO to set up an expert group on Turkey’s restrictions on electric vehicles imported from China and said the next step will be to start a litigation process in accordance with WTO rules.
• BoJ is reportedly likely to hike in January barring any major Trump-driven market shocks, via Reuters citing sources; will make no major change to guidance that they will keep increasing rates. BoJ is unlikely to offer explicit guidance on the pace of future tightening or how far rates could eventually go, while source added “the market seems to have gotten the BoJ’s message”.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q4) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 1.3%)
• Chinese GDP YY (Q4) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.6%)
• Chinese GDP YTD YY (Q4) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.8%)
• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Dec) 6.2% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.4%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.0%)
• Chinese Unemployment Rate Urban Area (Dec) 5.1% (Prev. 5.0%)
• Chinese China House Prices MM (Dec) 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%); YY -5.3% (Prev. -5.7%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

APAC stocks mixed despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 01:47 AM

• APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China’s economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024.
• DXY lacked conviction following the headwinds from a dovish Fed Waller; USD/JPY initially languished at its lowest in nearly a month; Antipodeans saw a muted reaction to Chinese data.
• Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media; Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said he will resign from the government if the Gaza ceasefire deal is approved.
• European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB’s Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stock indices finished mostly lower following mixed data releases and despite the upward skew in sectors as Utilities and Real Estate sat atop of the pile with mega-cap sectors (Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Tech) the only ones in the red. On the earnings footing, MS and BAC continued the strong bank earnings although shares in the latter slipped, while TSMC also impressed.
• Nonetheless, the main highlight of the day was the rhetoric from Fed Governor Waller who tilted dovish as he suggested that a cut in March cannot be completely ruled out and that three or four cuts are possible this year depending on the data, which pressured the dollar, spurred upside in Treasuries and briefly supported stocks.
• SPX -0.21% at 5,937, NDX -0.69% at 21,091, DJIA -0.16% at 43,153, RUT +0.12% at 2,266.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he has grown less concerned about a labour-market slowdown and is less worried about unemployment turning into something worse.
• Canada’s counter-tariff plan is reportedly to target US aluminium and steel, according to Bloomberg sources.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.
• ASX 200 traded indecisively as weakness in the top-weighted financials sector and telecoms clouded over the marginal gains in most sectors, while the index also failed to benefit from the mostly better-than-expected data in Australia’s largest trading partner.
• Nikkei 225 continued to underperform amid recent currency strength and the potential for a BoJ rate hike next week.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China’s economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024. Nonetheless, the data only briefly supported Chinese stocks which were ultimately rangebound after the mixed commentary from the stats bureau which noted the impact of external environment changes is deepening, domestic demand is not sufficient, and economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges but also stated that positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025. In addition, US-China trade frictions continued to linger after the USTR found China shipbuilding to be actionable under Section 301.
• US equity futures eked marginal gains in uneventful trade after the prior day’s lacklustre performance.
• European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY lacked conviction following the headwinds from a dovish Fed Waller who does not think that a March cut can be completely ruled out and stated that cuts could start several months from now if current inflation expectations are met with three or four cuts possible this year if the data cooperates, while the greenback was also not helped by the recent mixed data releases stateside.
• EUR/USD was indecisive and traded on both sides of the 1.0300 level in quiet FX price action and after uneventful ECB Minutes.
• GBP/USD traded sideways after its returns to the 1.2200 handle with price action constrained after the miss on monthly UK GDP.
• USD/JPY initially languished at its lowest in nearly a month and briefly tested 155.00 to the downside heading into next week’s BoJ meeting with a recent Bloomberg poll showing 74% of economists surveyed expect the BoJ to raise rates at the approaching meeting. However, the pair then gradually reversed course and recouped some of its recent losses.
• Antipodeans were ultimately subdued with a muted reaction seen to the better-than-expected Chinese GDP and activity data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1889 vs exp. 7.3275 (prev. 7.1881).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures took a breather after climbing yesterday on the back of the dovish comments from Fed’s Waller who suggested not to completely rule out a rate cut in March and that three of four cuts are possible this year if the data cooperates.
• Bund futures sat around the prior day’s best levels after recovering from the selling triggered by disappointing UK GDP and an upward revision to German CPI.
• 10yr JGB futures initially followed suit to the recent momentum in global peers but then pared its gains amid a lack of fresh pertinent drivers and with a potential BoJ rate hike next week.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures nursed some of the prior day’s losses with the rebound facilitated after stronger-than-expected Chinese data.
• US Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent said sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war were not forceful enough and Biden was too concerned about raising the price of oil, burdening Trump with higher oil prices, while he would be in favour of increasing sanctions on Russian oil majors to levels that would bring Russia to the negotiating table. Furthermore, he said as US energy output climbs, they can squeeze Iran and noted with sanctions, they can “make Iran poor again”.
• OPEC said the Dangote Petroleum Refinery (650k BPD) and its efforts to ramp up petrol production are impacting the petrol market in Europe, according to AFP.
• Colonial Pipeline now estimates an earlier-than-expected restart of Line 1 on Friday after it made progress with on-site work to identify the source of a leak on Line 1 and began repairs.
• Spot gold traded little changed and held on to most of the prior day’s gains after reclaiming the USD 2,700/oz level.
• Copper futures were mildly supported as participants digested several economic releases from China including stronger-than-expected GDP and activity data.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin extended on the prior day’s gains and returned to above the USD 101k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s stats bureau said China’s economic operations were generally steady in 2024, but the impact from external environment changes is deepening and domestic demand is not sufficient, while it added that economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges. China stats bureau head said China’s economic achievements in 2024 were hard won but China policy stimulus was timely and boosted confidence and growth, as well as noted they will continue to promote economic recovery and implement more pro-active economic policies. The stats bureau head said positive factors will outweigh negative factors for China’s economy in 2025 and he is fully confident about China’s economic development in 2025, while he added that facing external changes, China will prioritise boosting domestic demand especially consumption.
• US Trade Representative said China’s dominance of maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors is actionable under Section 301 statute but did not make specific recommendations. USTR said China’s targeting of maritime sectors is enabled by forced labour, lack of labour rights, and excess capacity in steel and other areas, while it displaces foreign firms, lessens competition and creates dependence on China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to the US report about China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors, while it will closely monitor US actions and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. MOFCOM also said the relevant investigation is marked by ‘unilateralism and protectionism’, while it added the ‘decline’ of the US shipbuilding industry has nothing to do with China and it urged the US to stop shifting problems in its domestic industrial development onto China.
• China’s Commerce Ministry requested the WTO to set up an expert group on Turkey’s restrictions on electric vehicles imported from China and said the next step will be to start a litigation process in accordance with WTO rules.
• US President-elect Trump is considering an executive order to circumvent the TikTok ban which would allow TikTok to continue operating until new owners are found, according to NYT.
• BoJ is reportedly likely to hike in January barring any major Trump-driven market shocks, via Reuters citing sources; will make no major change to guidance that they will keep increasing rates. BoJ is unlikely to offer explicit guidance on the pace of future tightening or how far rates could eventually go, while source added “the market seems to have gotten the BoJ’s message”.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q4) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 1.3%)
• Chinese GDP YY (Q4) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.6%)
• Chinese GDP YTD YY (Q4) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.8%)
• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Dec) 6.2% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.4%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.0%)
• Chinese Unemployment Rate Urban Area (Dec) 5.1% (Prev. 5.0%)
• Chinese China House Prices MM (Dec) 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%)
• Chinese China House Prices YY (Dec) -5.3% (Prev. -5.7%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media.
• Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said he will resign from the government if the Gaza ceasefire deal is approved.
• People close to US President-elect Trump conveyed a warning to Israeli officials that they don’t want the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to collapse, according to i24.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russian President Putin and Iranian President Pezeshkian may discuss the situation in Syria, Palestine, Caucasus and the Iranian nuclear programme on Friday, according to TASS.

OTHER

• Chinese hackers reportedly accessed Treasury Secretary Yellen’s computer in the US Treasury breach, according to Bloomberg.
• North Korean Foreign Ministry said it will exercise its thorough right to self-defence, according to KCNA.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• French PM Bayrou survived a no-confidence motion against the government.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

3C JAPAN

end

3D. CHINA/

China’s recovery is non existent. Their real estate bubble has burst two years ago and they are now deflating. Thus the reason why Chinese bond yields are hitting record lows. pay no attention to their contrived data

(zerohedge)

‘Recovery Still Fragile’ – Chinese Bond Yields Hit Record Lows Despite Surprise GDP ‘Beat’

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 08:31 AM

China’s Q4 GDP and December industrial production reports beat market expectations meaningfully, with the 2024 full-year GDP growth target officially reached (what an amazing coincidence).

Real GDP growth rose notably to +5.4% yoy in Q4 from +4.6% yoy in Q3, driven by the acceleration of sequential growth on the back of more coordinated and forceful policy easing and export frontloading due to concerns about potential US tariff hikes.

“The biggest bright spot in the economy last year was exports, which was very strong especially if price factor was excluded,” Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA.

“That means the biggest problem this year will be US tariffs.”

Year-on-year industrial production growth rose meaningfully in December, led by faster output growth in the automobile and electric machinery industries.

Retail sales growth also accelerated, thanks mainly to the rebound in online goods sales growth as the distortions from an earlier-than-usual start of the Singles’ Day Shopping Festival last year subsided.

The ongoing consumer goods trade-in program continued to boost some durable goods sales, as evidenced by strong home appliance growth in December.

In comparison, fixed asset investment growth remained subdued despite strong local government bond net financing in recent months, as a large proportion of proceeds have been used for debt resolution, and it may take time for fiscal expansion and new project launches to follow suit.

Property-related activity continued to present wide divergence between sales and construction amid the ongoing efforts to support the housing market. 

Goldman Sachs continues to expect real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% yoy in 2025 from 5.0% in 2024, as the growth drag from likely higher US tariffs may more than offset the ongoing policy easing amid the prolonged property downturn and still-weak consumer sentiment.

“Better data has likely reduced Beijing’s sense of urgency and policy may continue to undershoot on the housing and social welfare front,” Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing wrote in a note.

However, amid all this glorious economic strength, Chinese bond yields are at record lows…

…does the bond market know something about the impact of Trump’s tariffs that Beijing would rather ignore for now?

“The recovery is tentatively sustained in a still fragile mode,” Societe Generale SA economists Wei Yao and Michelle Lam wrote in a note.

“Policymakers need to make a stronger fiscal boost in 2025 to ensure growth stability.”

The danger now is President Xi Jinping eases up on stimulus just as tariffs loom.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

end

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS//

the key guy behind the deal: Mossad chief Barnea..

(JerusalemPost)

Behind the scenes: Mossad’s role in nailing down the Hamas ceasefire

Barnea has made no fully public comments and endeavored to stay in the shadows.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBJANUARY 16, 2025 19:38Updated: JANUARY 16, 2025 21:29

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-837895&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250115_f483501d9455788bffec08d683f8f205b860ca96&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

At the start of hostage negotiations in October 2023 there were a dizzying series of reports and rumors about who was responsible for the fate of hostages on behalf of the State of Israel.

Names such as Gal Hirsch – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s appointee as Coordinator for the Captives and the Missing; Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar; IDF Commander of the Intelligence Array for Locating the Abducted and Missing Persons Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon; and even former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen were all given potential credit for managing the issue.

As we reached the last stretch of the Israel-Hamas hostage deal on Wednesday, there was no doubt that despite each of these figures making various contributions, the most critical figure was current Mossad Director David Barnea.

Even as incoming US president Donald Trump has tried to take the lion’s share of the credit for the final deal being sealed – and there is no question that he helped pressure both Israel and Hamas to take the final decision to cross the Rubicon – the Arabic version of the deal which was widely published on Wednesday made it plain that Barnea had sewed together a vast majority of the deal, dating back to May 27 and August 16.

Three examples from the deal include provisions for the following:

1) that the Rafah Crossing will be opened for transferring aid and other items “based on the agreements reached in August with Egypt”;  2) that wounded Palestinians can exit Gaza to receive medical care via the Rafah Crossing “according to section 12 of the May 27 agreement”; and 3) that the return of northern Gaza Palestinians via the central Gaza Netzarim Corridor will happen “according to Section 3 or 3b of the May 27 agreement.”

The Jerusalem Post has reported in the past that negotiations in the May-August time period managed to get the most significant concession from Hamas: that it would re-enter negotiations for returning all hostages and begin returning hostages in Phase 1 without requiring an end to the war as a prerequisite to renewing the talks. This achievement requires that some real credit be given to Barnea for his role as the negotiations chief – long before Trump entered the picture.

In terms of the ongoing negotiations since Tuesday: It has been widely reported that Hamas attempted to alter the terms and names of certain Palestinian prisoners due to be exchanged as part of the hostage release.

What is Barnea doing?

As head negotiator, it would fall to Barnea to maneuver between holding Israel’s ground on certain issues, such as when certain Israeli officials leaked that they had refused to return Yahya Sinwar’s body, and when to show tactical flexibility in order to seal the deal on potentially more minor changes.

In general, however, no one has any idea what Barnea is doing.

---

---

While a number of Israeli political and defense officials have gone public with their views about the hostage negotiations and how they have personally impacted the negotiations, Barnea has made no fully public comments and has endeavored to stay in the shadows.

From time to time, it has been apparent that he would have preferred it had the government not publicized every time he was sent to Paris, Cairo, Qatar, or elsewhere to conduct talks.

Barnea’s first success was with the incredibly difficult tightrope walk to seal the November 2023 agreement with Hamas, which returned 84 Israeli hostages and 24 foreign hostages.

From a variety of sources and foreign reports, the Post has learned that Barnea is no mere messenger but a true operator in his own right who has maintained discretion on a variety of issues in dispute – and who often has made critical recommendations or taken positions that have decisively influenced the eventual course of the hostage negotiations.

One aspect of what has made Barnea vital is the high esteem in which he is held by the primary players, from Qatar’s leaders and intelligence officials to Egypt’s leaders to CIA Chief William Burns and of course, to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Post understands that Qatar’s leverage over Hamas is three-pronged: It hosts some of Hamas’s top “diaspora” leadership; hosts some of Hamas’s leaders’ families; and its banks, at points in time, have held up to 80% of the terror group’s funds.

This has meant that Barnea has invested more energy into Qatari relationships than any other.

Paradoxically, the Post understands that some of Barnea’s strong credibility stems from his reputation for assassination operations and his loud criticism of allowing Qatar to send Hamas funds – whether as Mossad chief or previously as deputy chief.

Those qualities in Barnea mean that Qatari leaders know that when he makes them an offer it is real and concrete, and he is not just a friendly diplomat trying to be smooth.

This has enabled Barnea to be in touch with a variety of key Qatar officials relatively instantaneously at any given time.Also, when many officials put out false leads, saying that Qatar was going to be excluded or that all Hamas officials had been expelled from Qatar, Barnea never encouraged these exaggerations – which have clearly been disproven by the negotiations this week.

One critical point when Barnea had a major role was when he proposed the November 2023 initial exchange for 50 hostages.

Then-defense minister Yoav Gallant, as well as IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar were all against such an offer early on (later they supported it), but crucially, Netanyahu’s close ally Ron Dermer was in favor; as were Shas party leader Aryeh Deri, MK Benny Gantz, and fellow war cabinet member MK Gadi Eisenkot were in favor.

Twice during the week when that initial hostage deal was playing out and Hamas began to try to play games, Barnea shot down the terror group’s attempts to alter what they were “giving” to Israel, wishing to hand over male hostages and dead bodies instead of the agreed-upon female hostages.

It was Barnea’s no-nonsense approach that got that deal back on track. He has been one of the few officials who has never given up on the hostage negotiations, even after they came so close to falling apart in May and August, and it is likely those same skills that are being martialed now to get the current deal over the finish line.

END

ISRAEL HAMAS:

Hostage deal signed by both parties in Doha , Israeli delegation heads home

98 Gaza hostages set for gradual return home after 15 months in Hamas captivity • Biden confirms American citizens will be released in first phase

Hostage deal signed by both parties in Doha, PMO confirms

This comes after reports that the government would delay the vote on the matter until Saturday.

By CORINNE BAUM, SHIR PERETSJANUARY 17, 2025 02:28Updated: JANUARY 17, 2025 04:25

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Representatives of Israel, Hamas, the US, and Qatar have officially signed the hostage deal and Gaza ceasefire in Doha, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed in a statement Friday morning. 

According to the statement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been informed of the agreement and instructed to convene the Political-security cabinet, followed by a government meeting to approve the plan.

Currently, the government plenum is set to vote on the measure on Saturday, which would delay the release of the first three hostages until Monday, rather than Sunday as initially planned.

The government cited last-minute disagreements with Hamas as the reason for the delay in voting on the matter.

Opposition is expected

The vote is expected to cause significant opposition in the government, with three ministers already promising to quit if the Israel-Hamas war does not continue. 

Diaspora Minister Avichai Chikli, National Security Minister Itmar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich promised to leave the government.

Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have threatened to have their parties withdraw from the government if the war against Hamas does not continue.

Netanyahu released a statement expressing his appreciation to the negotiating team, as well as confirming that the families of the hostages were informed of the agreement. 

Additionally, the Coordinator of Prisoners of War and Missing Persons has begun preparations to accept the returned hostages back into the country.

“The State of Israel is committed to achieving all the goals of the war, including the return of all our kidnapped people – both living and dead,” the statement concluded.

END

ISRAEL HAMAS

Hamas attempts at last minute changes fails

(JerusalemPost)

Hamas attempts last-minute changes after deal announced, PMO says

“The Prime Minister instructed the negotiating team to stand firm on the agreed understandings and to outright reject Hamas’s last-minute extortion attempts.”

By AMICHAI STEIN, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 16, 2025 03:52Updated: JANUARY 16, 2025 16:55

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a conference call with the negotiating team in Doha, who reported on last-minute attempts by Hamas to back out of the hostage agreement, the Prime Minister’s Office announced in a statement on Thursday.

“Contrary to an explicit clause that gives Israel veto power over the release of mass murderers who are symbols of terror, Hamas demands to dictate the identity of these terrorists,” the statement said. 

“The prime minister instructed the negotiating team to stand firm on the agreed understandings and to outright reject Hamas’s last-minute extortion attempts.”

However, according to a source with intel into the matter who spoke to The Jerusalem Post, there has been “progress in the attempts to solve the crisis in the talks that are held with Qatar.”

“The mediators believe that the ‘crisis’ is being solved,” the source added. 

The source also said that Biden’s envoy, Brett Mcgurk, and President-elect Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, have participated in the talks.

Earlier in the evening, the Prime Minister’s Office indicated that some unresolved issues remain in the framework but expressed hope that these would be finalized overnight. The Security Cabinet is scheduled to meet at 11 a.m. to give final approval to the agreement.

The first phase of the deal will last 42 days, and implementation of the agreement will begin two or three days after its signing.

Partial IDF withdrawal

The IDF will withdraw from the Netzarim corridor and all populated areas of the enclave to about 700 meters from the border, except in five specified areas, where it will be 400 meters.

The IDF will reportedly reduce its presence on the Philadelphi corridor and then withdraw from it completely over the course of the first 50 days.

end

ISRAEL/WEST BANK

Israel continues to pound Jenin

(Magid/Times of Israel)

Palestinian officials say IDF strikes set back truce deal between PA and Jenin Brigade

By Jacob Magid FollowToday, 3:23 am

Illustrative: Smoke rises during clashes between gunmen and the Palestinian Authority’s security forces, inside the Jenin refugee camp, on January 12, 2025. (Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP)

A pair of IDF airstrikes in the West Bank’s Jenin refugee camp earlier this week set back negotiations that were on the verge of a truce agreement between the Palestinian Authority and armed terror groups in the northern West Bank city that would have seen the latter hand over their weapons to the PA in exchange for immunity, two Palestinian officials familiar with the matter tell The Times of Israel.

The Tuesday and Wednesday strikes targeted some of the terror leaders that the PA has been operating against for over a month. Six people were killed in each strike, including civilians, according to Palestinian media reports.

The Palestinian officials who spoke with The Times of Israel lambasted the IDF for the airstrikes, saying that they undermined Ramallah’s efforts to crack down on lawlessness in the northern West Bank.

The PA has been carrying out an unprecedented counterterrorism raid, largely targeting the refugee camp’s so-called Jenin Battalion, whose fighters are largely affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

Israel has urged the PA to crack down on these armed factions for years, explaining that it would limit raids in West Bank cities where Ramallah is operating against terror elements.

The IDF held off on conducting any strikes or raids in Jenin when the PA began its raid there last month but ended that policy this week.

One of the Palestinian officials speculated that the decision was pushed by far-right elements in Israel who don’t want the PA to succeed in its effort, which also comes as Ramallah works to get off on the right foot with US President-elect Donald Trump.

The official says the strikes may have also been designed to scuttle the brewing agreement between the PA and the armed groups that would have seen them hand over all of their weapons in exchange for immunity — something that Ramallah believes would significantly calm tensions in the northern West Bank.

The second Palestinian official says that negotiations with the Jenin Brigade are ongoing and the PA still hopes an agreement can be reached in the coming days. The PA is hoping that the deal can coincide with the ceasefire in Gaza, the official says.

END

ISRAEL HAMAS

Who are the Bibas family set to be released in first phase of new hostage deal?

The young family, Yarden Bibas, Shiri Bibas, Ariel Bibas and Kfir Bibas, were abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7. The youngest member, Kfir, has spent most of his life as a hostage.

By DANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARDJANUARY 17, 2025 16:50

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Yarden Bibas, Shiri Bibas, Ariel Bibas and Kfir Bibas were among the 33 names listed to be released from Hamas captivity under the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal, which was confirmed to have been signed Friday.

The young family, abducted by invading terrorists from Kibbutz Nir Oz, has garnered wide coverage as sons Kfir and Ariel were the youngest civilians abducted by the Gaza-based terror group. 

Kfir was 9 months old on October 7, when he was abducted, and is now a year and a half old – meaning he has spent the majority of his life as a hostage. Kfir’s brother Ariel was four years old when Hamas abducted him but, after over a year in captivity, is now over five years old. 

Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigade claimed in November 2023, that the two brothers along with then-32-year-old mother Shiri Bibas had been killed.

The IDF has yet to establish if the family is alive, as Hamas and its terrorist ally, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, have made false claims about the status of other hostages in the past.  Hamas previously claimed that Hannah Katzir was killed, although she was subsequently released alive as part of the November deal. 

The family’s abduction to Gaza

The IDF was able to confirm, after securing footage, that Shiri and her two sons were taken to Gaza alive. After being taken to Khan Yunis on October 7, they were detained by a terror group by the name of Kataib Mujahadin.

Following the footage release, the family said in a statement, “These videos tear our hearts out. Witnessing Shiri, Yarden, Ariel and Kfir, ripped away from their home in Nir Oz into this hellscape, feels unbearable and inhumane.

“Kidnapping children is a crime against humanity and a war crime. Ariel and Kfir are victims of monstrous evil. Our whole family has become hostages along with all the hostages.”

Footage made public in April also shows that Yarden Bibas was alive when abducted, although bloodied from the terrorists’ attacks. 

Despite the status of the family remaining unconfirmed, Dana Silberman-Sitton, the sister of Shiri Bibas, expressed doubts that the Bibas would be returned alive. 

---

---

In an interview with KAN11 in October, Silberman-Sitton explained she told her daughter that the rumors of their relatives’ deaths were true. “Maybe I also didn’t want to delude myself to avoid disappointment,” she explained. 

Eylon Keshet, the cousin of Yarden Bibas, also spoke of the family’s plight. In August, he told Campaign Against Antisemitism of the struggles he explained he was “on the verge of crying any minute…it feels like torture.”

The family has organized a number of campaigns to raise awareness of their loved ones, highlighting their now-infamous orange hair, love of Batman and ages. During these campaigns, a number of posters of the young boys were vandalized and torn down.

“How could you rip posters of Kfir and Ariel? And try to politicize it? What kind of monster do you have to be? What kind of ignorant [person] do you have to be to try to merge these issues together?” Keshet expressed.

The Prime Minister’s Office stated that the release of the hostage would be able to begin on Sunday, pending the cabinet’s approval of the deal. 

END

ISRAEL HAMAS/FRIDAY MORNING

Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Gaza Ceasefire Deal After It’s Signed In Doha

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 09:00 AM

Despite that Thursday night the hostage release-ceasefire deal which is to end the war in Gaza was already signed in Doha, there’s still been some final government approval hurdles on the Israeli side.

Israel’s security cabinet has issued its formal approval, but now the deal moves to the full cabinet for final discussion and vote, expected to be held before the Jewish Shabbat begins. The cabinet further recommends that “the government approve the proposed outline.” 

A statement by the Israeli prime minister’s office indicated the cabinet accepted the deal “after examining all political, security, and humanitarian aspects; and with the understanding that the proposed deal supports the achievement of the war’s goals.”

There are still expected to be some holdouts arguing against, however:

The PMO does not reveal who voted to support the move, but Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party both said they would not back the deal.

Earlier, the government said that the plan will still be implemented as of Sunday despite the bureaucratic delays, which means the High Court will still need to hold a hearing into petitions against the agreement, though it is not expected to intervene.

Despite these delays on the Israeli side, President-Elect Trump along with President Biden were the first world leaders this week to hail the deal.

An initial Hamas statement also celebrated this as a ‘win’ over the Israeli military machine, which has been unable to root out the Islamist insurgency in the strip. Words from Hamas leadership praised “the legendary steadfastness of the great Palestinian people and the valiant resistance in the Gaza Strip.”

According to more of the latest details via an Al Jazeera summary:

• Hamas says that obstacles that arose in relation to the terms of the Gaza ceasefire agreement were resolved at dawn today, according to a statement issued by the group.
• The Israeli media has published names of the 33 Israeli captives who are going to be released in the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.
• If approved by the Israeli government and cabinet, the ceasefire deal could proceed by the planned timeline, with captives freed as early as Sunday, according to a statement from the Israeli PM’s office.
• Israeli attacks are intensifying on densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip, including in Gaza City and northern border towns, according to Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum, reporting from Deir el-Balah.

Bombardment of the Gaza Strip has meanwhile continued until the deal’s full implementation Sunday…

Yesterday, Isreal & Hamas agreed upon a ceasefire; it will start on Sunday.

In the meantime, Israel continues its bombardment of Gaza. At least 80 have been killed since the deal was announced.

IN GAZA, THIS IS THE REALITY.pic.twitter.com/1cjVuYmPZ6

— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) January 16, 2025

If the truce holds, it will likely go down in the history books as a victory for Trump’s early diplomacy. Progressives too have been wondering what took the Biden White House so long, given also that virtually the same deal was on the table previously this summer, and it collapsed – after the US administration brought no pressure to bear.

ISRAEL /SYRIA/OPINION

END

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS

Houthis To Halt Red Sea Ship Attacks If Gaza Truce Holds

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 01:45 PM

For the first time since attacks in the Red Sea began in 2023 in response to the Israeli military onslaught in Gaza due to Oct.7, Yemen’s Houthis have signaled they will stop their attacks if the new Gaza truce and hostage exchange deal holds.

Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi in his first announcement since the impending truce, which is expected to take effect Sunday, said that his group plans to respect the agreement but that attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping could continue.

“We will continue to follow the stages of implementing the agreement,” Al-Houthi said in a speech Thursday. On Friday the deal was still moving past the final bureaucratic hurdles in Israel with an expected full cabinet vote.

“Any Israeli breach, massacre, or siege — we will be immediately ready to provide military support to Palestinians,” he continued, strongly suggesting that if the ceasefire collapses then Houthi attacks would be back on. 

He said his movement, formally known as Ansar Allah, will “confront any aggression, whether by the Israelis, the Americans, or their allies, or any attempts to divert our country from its liberated jihadist path.”

The Houthis have indeed been seeking to target American, British, and coalition warships – though it’s unclear if there have been any direct strikes or damage to military vessels of late.

A Wednesday statement claimed that missiles and drones were launched against the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier and other US warships patrolling the Red Sea. It’s unknown whether if all projectiles were intercepted.

“This targeting of the carrier is the sixth since its arrival in the Red Sea,” the Houthis stated. The Iran-backed group has clearly remained committed and defiant as it blocks Red Sea shipping, despite several rounds of US-UK-Israeli bombing campaigns, though it seems the only thing that may halt this is a lasting Gaza truce.

Bloomberg has meanwhile reviewed that “Most Western-linked container ships have over the past year chosen to take the much longer route around southern Africa when sailing between Asia and Europe, and kept clear of the Red Sea. That’s squeezed global shipping capacity, lifting freight rates and boosted the earnings of carriers like Mitsui OSK.”

“Container-shipping giants A.P. Moller Maersk A/S and Hapag-Lloyd AG last year announced a vessel-sharing partnership for the alternative route,” the report continues.

Egypt has said its taken a $7 billion hit in revenue decline from the Suez Canal for 2024, which marks about a 60% drop from prior years.

Very important for oil, LNG and container-shipped commodities (like coffee)

The Yemen-based Houthis signaled a pause in their months-long attacks on commercial ships following a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas https://t.co/H3ZfndcgzO

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) January 17, 2025

The Houthis have consistently demanded that for it to halt its Red Sea attacks there must be full Israeli military withdrawal from the Strip. It’s anything but certain whether that will actually happen should the ceasefire reach phase two or phase three implementation.

If the Yemeni operations do persist in face of the truce, it would complicate or damage efforts to keep the peace in the Gaza Strip, as it’s already sure to be an extremely delicate and fragile truce. 

END

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/UK

ROBERT H

History repeats because it’s lessons are not learnt

UK’s  Starmer is itching to sign a 100-year partnership with Ukraine to strengthen security in the Baltic, Azov, and Black Seas and increase economic and cultural ties. Perhaps old British hands will realign and rein in such craziness. 
One slight problem, the Azov Sea is A Russian lake. The previous building of a British naval base there was destroyed in the first days of the SMO before Mariupol was taken. This is Russian soil and will be defended. 

NATO nations are calling to raise funding and strengthen ties with Ukraine as Trump comes to power. Watch European social sending is being said to be better spent on war than looking out for citizens.  The UK and Germany are Ukraine’s top supporters behind the US under Biden. And this has been well scripted to by American Neocons to ensure as much as could pushed to Ukraine has been. Under Trump there is NO certainty that America will continue to push for war with Russia. The American focus will be on China who is the real enemy and meddles in America to weaken the nation. China has a long history of meddling not just in America but other nations like Canada. And Trump does have a legit beef with China who has military bases on sides of the Panama Canal. 

There is no plan for the war effort to wane or for peace to be presented as an option. Thus, Europe will see another continental war fought. And it will be one that could have been avoided. To think the Brits will succeed in getting the Americans into the fight is a big stretch. Unlike WWII which saw Churchill convince the Americans to get into the fight. Today there is little common ground between England and America in political matters. 

Britain today is a hollowed out military force that has neither the resources in weapon systems or manpower for a fight. Having the bulldog enthusiasm for a fight is not the same as the capacity. Yes, they can resort to nukes and the like. But those days are old school and will only see the continued waning of British influence as a leading nation, if attempted. The demonstration of ORESHNIK by Russia changed the game of simple nukes thrown in war. And the West is not even close to being a player in this new game. It simply does not have the technology to play. Thus, the resort to old tactics of meddling in underhanded ways to gain relevance. To lie in bed with a character like Zelensky says a lot. There is old saying that if you sleep with dogs you will get fleas. So if you want to partner with a leader of the most corrupt nation that says a lot about British choice. 

India today no longer sees Britain as a model to follow and makes its own way. There are many other nations of the same mind. It is also why Britain and Russia have no mutual trust and why Britain will never be the gateway to the BRICS or the global south as a Western porthole for finance. Even China has recognized that while of symbolic use Britain is outpost to the West but not a driver. The real Gateway to China will a Chinese city not London. 

Britain to remain centric to the dollar and it’s Forex standing ( majority of forex trade is done in London) will turn to America. But that will not be under current British leadership. Sadly, for the British people the wait for positive change will wait until there is new Leadership. Perhaps with the current shackles cast off there will be mediated negotiations and a change in posture. Britain has many social problems that fester out of control. 

All this war mongering is meaningless because the planet is moving on and a solar minimum is on the way. With this event which is cyclical comes colder winters. Even the magnetic north has moved away from Canada towards Russia. As history repeats its’ lessons one wonders if the lessons not learnt by Napoleon in his failed conquest of Russia; where he was defeated by a winter that came early in late summer when his army was only equipped for a summer campaign.; to Britain where in winter the Thames froze over to allow skating and to Germany who saw snow in summer will be taught again. 

Will history repeat to see the same thing one day soon? 

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES//

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

WolfCub18, subscriber posted this & I think 100% of this is correct, I feel same & this pertains to reports of Susie Wiles (47’s CoS pick & pharma lobbyist) daughter now leading a lobby firm in DC

question, are we being played? played by whom? is this ‘in your face’? this is a clear conflict of interest with Susia Wiles, I can state it no other way & yes, I anger Trump’s orbit but it’s a fact

Dr. Paul AlexanderJan 17

READ IN APP

WolfCub18

2h

‘Everyone is entitled to make an honest living! But if these reports are accurate about Susie Wiles’s ties to big Farma and this report about her daughter’s lobbying gig, I’m not sure what type of lobbying she will be doing though, but this is borderline conflict of interests in my opinion and I’m ULTRA DARK MAGA! These are the games that’s played in DC, the grass roots did the heavy work to put Trump back in office, now all these people are coming out of the woodwork to grift off our labour and all the abuse that we took from the swamp! Best believe that the MAGA posse will be keeping a close eye on this!’

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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

Canada

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0294 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 155.73 UP 0.367 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2186 DOWN .0047 OR 47 PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4432 UP 0.0038 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 38 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 5.79 PTS OR 0.18%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 61.17 PTS OR 0.31%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.20%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 61.17 PTS OR 0.31%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.79 PTS OR 0.18%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.20%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 121.14 PTS OR 0.31%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2710.20

silver:$30.48

USA dollar index early FRIDAY  morning: 109.20 UP 29 BASIS POINTS FROM  THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.939% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.199% DOWN 0 AND 6/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.156 DOWN 6 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.625 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4895 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  FRIDAY 

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0313 UP .0011 OR 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 155.90 UP 0.539 OR YEN IS DOWN 54 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6895 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0008 OR 8 BASIS pts  to 1.4402

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.3265 (ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3389)

TURKISH LIRA:  35.56 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.199

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  4.595% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.828 DOWN 2 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.255 UP 2  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2712.80

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.33

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 113.22 pts or 1.35%

German Dax : UP 248.11 pts or 1.20% 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 75.01 pts or 0.98%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 75.70 PTS OR 0.64%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 447.84 PTS OR 1.25%

WTI Oil price  78.17 11 EST/

Brent Oil:  80.83 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  102.25 ROUBLE UP 1 AND  37/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4815 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6895 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.336 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.046 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0275 DOWN 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR

British Pound: 1.2169 DOWN 0.0070 OR 70 basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.655 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.201

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.19 UP 0.827 OR 83 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4465 UP .0075 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 75 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 78.00

Brent OIL:  80.73

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.615

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS PTS to 4.846%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT  4.276

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.321 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.026 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 109.22 UP 40 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.55 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  102.50 UP 1 AND  22/100 roubles

GOLD  2,700.70 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 30.30 (3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 334.70 PTS OR 0.78%

NASDAQ 100 UP 347.17 PTS OR 1.65%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.98 DOWN 0.62 PTS OR 3.73%

GLD: $ 249.27 OR DOWN 1.33 PTS OR 0.53%

SLV/ $27.61 PTS OR DOWN 0.43 OR 0.94%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 284.63 PTS OR 0.94%

end

TRADING today ZEROHEDGE

Stocks and Dollar bid ahead of Trump inauguration – Newsquawk US Market Wrap

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 04:11 PM

• SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar up
• REAR VIEW: US IP beats; Fed’s Hammack expresses patience on rate cuts; US housing data beats; China GDP, industrial production and retail sales top expectations; UK retail sales unexpectedly decline; US President-elect Trump and China President Xi hold phone call; US Supreme Court rules against TikTok’s appeal to forced US sale or ban.
• COMING UP: Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day; Newsquawk will run a full service on MLK Day despite US market closures given that the holiday coincides with the inauguration of US President-elect Trump. Events: Second inauguration of US President-elect Trump. Data: Chinese LPR, German Producer Prices, BoC SCE. Supply: Australia, UK.
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US CPI & Retail Sales, China Activity & Trade Data, UK CPI, GDP & Retail Sales, Aussie jobs, ECB Minutes. To download the full report, please click here.
• CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing BoJ, PBoC, Norges, CBRT; Reviewing BoK. To download the full report, please click here.
• US WEEKLY EARNINGS ESTIMATES: [TUES] SCHW, PLD, NFLX; [WED] JNJ, PG, ABT, GEV; [THURS] GE, UNP, TXN, ISRG; [FRI] VZ, AXP, NEE. To download the full report, please click here.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

• 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
• 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

MARKET WRAP

Stocks were bid on Friday supported by optimism on US/Sino relations after a phone call with US President-elect Trump and China President Xi, who both expressed desire for a positive start to their relationship when Trump gets inaugurated on Monday. T-notes meanwhile flattened in likely profit taking after the dovish inflation data and dovish commentary from Waller this week ahead of Trump’s inauguration where focus will lie on executive orders around tariffs/spending. The long-end of the curve was flat by settlement but the front-end saw notable pressure. In FX, the Dollar outperformed, supported by the move in yields and strong IP data with eyes turning to the inauguration, while the Yen underperformed, although more reports are suggesting a rate hike is to be expected next week from the BoJ. Crude prices settled in the red but finished the week in the green after Russian energy sanctions supported the weekly rally. Gold and Silver prices were sold amid the Dollar strength, while Crypto prices were buoyed with reports suggesting Trump is to plan an exec order for Crypto and make it a national priority. Elsewhere, Fed’s Hammack echoed her hawkish remarks and concerns around inflation, while Housing Starts and Building Permits beat, but the surge in starts was due to favorable seasonals.

US

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION/MANUFACTURING OUTPUT: Industrial Production rose 0.9% in December, above the expected 0.3% and high end of analysts forecast range (0.6%), with the prior decline of 0.1% revised up to +0.2%. Manufacturing output grew by 0.6% (exp. 0.2%) from the upwardly revised prior of 0.4% (was 0.2%). Capacity utilisation jumped to 77.6% above the expected 77.0% (prev. 76.8%, rev. 77.0%) and the highest analyst estimate of 77.4%. Within the report, the output of consumer goods increased 0.5% due to a rise in non durables production outweighing a broad-based decline in durables. A 1.9% gain in the energy index supported the 0.7% move higher in nondurable consumer goods, while a strong gain in the production of civilian index helped the index for businesses equipment rise by 1.4%. The index for materials rose 1.2%, with all components gaining-ex consumer parts, which dropped 1.4%. Oxford Economics points out that when stripping out certain factors (post strike Boeing recovery and the rebound in utilities and mining output), underlying manufacturing output is still recovering only slowly. The firm expects modest growth in industrial production in 2025, anticipating lower interest rates to be a modest tailwind, and the potential for more aggressive use of tariffs and uncertainty around the future of tax credits as a downside risk.Note, in wake of the data, the Atlanta Fed GDP Now tracker for Q4 24 was unchanged at 3.0%.

HOUSING STARTS/BUILDING PERMITS: Housing starts surged 15.8% in December to 1.499mln from 1.294mln, well above the 1.320mln forecast. However, Oxford Economics highlights that this surge is misleading as it was impacted by favorable seasonable factors. The desk notes this improvement does not signal to them that construction is weathering the rise in mortgage rates, and that the balance of risks to the outlook for residential investment this year remain weighted to the downside. Meanwhile, building permits fell 0.7% to 1.483mln from 1.493mln, but above the 1.460mln forecast. OxEco also points out that housing starts “are running slightly ahead of permits, which isn’t overly favorable for residential construction over the next couple of months”. Although a strong starts print, it appears to be driven by seasonals while looking ahead concerns remain due to elevated mortgage rates and potential price increases for builders if building materials are impacted by US President-elect Trump tariffs, who is set to be inaugurated on Monday.

FED’S HAMMACK (2026 voter, dissenter), in an interview with WSJ, said the US still has an inflation problem, and also the Fed still has a rate-of-change problem that they need to address. Hammack further added that they made amazing progress on it, but need to continue to finish the job. The dissenter from December said the central bank can be “very patient” and thinks rates today are only modestly restrictive. Reflecting on last month’s rate cut she added, “for me, that December conversation was really about, did you need to do it now, or could you be more patient and wait and see.” On that meeting, Hammack added just because something’s priced into the market, to her, is an insufficient reason to do it.

FIXED INCOME

T-NOTE FUTURES (H5) SETTLED 2 TICKS LOWER AT 108-17+

T-Notes bear flattened after the rally this week post dovish inflation and Fed commentary with eyes turning to Trump’s inauguration. At settlement, 2s +3.6bps at 4.274%, 3s +3.1bps at 4.332%, 5s +1.6bps at 4.414%, 7s +0.8bps at 4.513%, 10s +0.3bps at 4.609%, 20s -0.4bps at 4.914%, 30s -0.3bps at 4.842%

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI +0.2bps at 2.535%10yr BEI +0.2bps at 2.421%30yr BEI -0.2bps at 2.348%.

THE DAY: T-notes meandered overnight before catching a bid in the European morning with T-notes tracking Gilts higher after a soft UK retail sales print. T-notes continued to grind higher to peak at 108-27+. Upside in T-notes in the morning came despite commentary from Fed’s Hammack, who reiterated her hawkish messaging that the Fed can be patient on rate cuts and that inflation remains an issue, although she is a known-hawk, being the sole 2024-voter dissenter in December. Meanwhile, there were positive inclinations regarding US/Sino relations after Trump and Xi held a phone call, with both hoping for a positive start to their relations. T-notes had peaked just ahead of the US data, which saw a very hot housing starts print but it was buoyed by favourable seasonalities. Later, US IP was much stronger than expected, beating all analyst forecasts while the prior saw revisions higher, although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was unchanged at 3.0% for Q4 24. With T-notes paring from peaks, it is likely some profit taking action after the rally seen this week after cool inflation metrics and a dovish Waller. T-notes have completely pared the post NFP downside seen last week, rising from lows of 107-06 on Monday to the aforementioned peak today of 108-27+. Meanwhile, attention turns to Trump’s inauguration on Monday (albeit markets are closed for MLK day) with focus on any day 1 executive orders around trade, tariffs and spending. Elsewhere, also weighing was a chunky issuance from Bank of America in a USD 10bln 5-parter between four-11year maturities.

NEXT WEEK SUPPLY: US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20yr bonds on 22nd January and USD 20bln of 10yr TIPS on 23rd January; as expected

STIRS/OPERATIONS:

• Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: January 0bps (prev. 1bps), March 7bps (prev. 8bps), May 13bps (prev. 14bps), December 39bps (prev. 42bps).
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 118bln (prev. 94bln) across 32 counterparties (prev. 34).
• SOFR at 4.29% (prev. 4.28%), volumes at USD 2.318tln (prev. 2.280).
• EFFR at 4.33% (prev. 4.33%), volumes at USD 105bln (prev. 108bln).

CRUDE

WTI (H5) SETTLED USD 0.46 LOWER AT USD 77.39/BBL; BRENT (H5) SETTLED USD 0.50 LOWER AT USD 80.79/BBL

The crude complex ended the day lower, but firmer for the fourth consecutive week as the latest US sanctions on Russian energy supported prices. On Friday, benchmarks eventually turned lower due to the stronger Dollar alongside further positive updates out of the Middle East. On the latter, Israeli media reported that Israel agrees to Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, whereby the Cabinet later ratified the agreement. Prior to this, the crude complex was initially buoyed by a constructive risk profile coupled with the decent Chinese GDP and activity data overnight. However, post-data China stats bureau stated China’s economic operations were generally steady in 2024, but the impact from external environment changes is deepening, and domestic demand is not sufficient, adding economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges. On the supply side, Colonial Pipeline safely completed repairs Friday morning on Line 1 and returned the line to service. For the record, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw oil Oil -2 at 478, Natgas -2 at 98, leaving the total -4 at 580.

EQUITIES

CLOSES: SPX +1.00% at 5,997, NDX +1.66% at 21,441, DJIA +0.78% at 43,488, RUT +0.40% at 2,276

SECTORS: Health -0.67%, Real Estate -0.04%, Utilities +0.1%, Industrials +0.56%, Materials +0.7%, Energy +0.79%, Financials +0.83%, Consumer Staples +0.85%, Communication Services +1.1%, Technology +1.65%, Consumer Discretionary +1.71%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX: +1.17% at 20,897, FTSE 100: +1.35% at 8,505, CAC 40: +0.98% at 7,710, Euro Stoxx 50: +0.80% at 5,148, AEX: +0.72% at 914, IBEX 35: +0.64% at 11,916, FTSE MIB: +1.25% at 36,268, SMI: +0.46% at 11,990, PSI: +1.07% at 6,564.

EARNINGS

• Truist Financial (TFC): EPS, revenue and NII beat; FY profit view topped.
• Citizens Financial (CFG): Q1 NII guidance light.
• SLB (SLB): EPS, revenue and adj. EBITDA surpassed expectations.
• Fastenal (FAST): Top and bottom line missed with higher-than-expected FY25 capex.
• State Street (STT): Q4 metrics largely beat but weak FY25 NII guidance.
• J.B Hunt (JBHT): Mixed results with disappointing operating income.

STOCK SPECIFICS

• Starboard Value: Acquired a 7.7% stake in Qorvo (QRVO), worth USD 500mln.
• General Motors (GM): Settled with the FTC after allegations that it shared drivers’ location & behaviour data without consent.
• Western Digital (WDC): Guided Q2 profit at lower end of guidance range.
• Vistra Corp (VST): A fire broke out at the battery facility on Vistra’s Moss Landing power plant in Monterey County, California, with 40% of the building consumed as of late Thursday containing lithium-ion batteries.
• Intel (INTC): Is an acquisition target, according to SemiAccurate citing sources.
• FIGS (FIGS): Rejected PE firm Story3 Capital Partners’ offer to acquire the company, after last month’s offer of USD 6/shr.
• US Supreme Court rules against TikTok’s challenge to law that would force sale or ban of the app in US.
• FTC filed price discrimination case against PepsiCo (PEP), according to Bloomberg.
• Paramount (PARA): Said to make concessions alongside Skydance to gain FCC approval of merger, via WSJ.
• US officials mulled longshot idea of Intel (INTC)-Global Foundries (GFS) deal, and Trump appointee Lutnick signalled he is committed to the programme, according to Bloomberg.
• PG&E (PCG): Got USD 15bln in financing after US finalised loan guarantee.
• US DoJ filed a nationwide lawsuit alleging Walgreens (WBA) knowingly filed millions of prescriptions that lacked a legitimate medical purpose.
• US Supreme Court rules against TikTok’s challenge to law that would force sale or ban of the app in US.

BROKER MOVES:

• Salesforce (CRM): Upgraded at TD Cowen; said its IT survey screened favourable for CRM, while its recent checks have been “highly constructive” on interest levels of Agentforce, seeing “several new growth levers emerging” in the model for 2025 and 2026.
• Spotify (SPOT): Downgraded at Wolfe Research arguing revenue forecasts look “full” following price hikes, marketing cuts, and developed markets beginning to saturate.
• Robinhood Market (HOOD) – Named top pick at Morgan Stanley.

US FX WRAP

The Dollar regained momentum ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration, after incurring four consecutive days of losses. The day did see choppiness however, as gains were briefly trimmed following Trump remarking on his phone call with Chairman Xi of China “The call was a very good one for both China and the USA”, “we discussed balancing trade”. Thereafter, DXY was briefly weighed on by EUR strength as optimism arrived perhaps on upcoming trade relations with the EU, although EUR and CNH strength faded, resuming broad based USD strength; DXY peaked at 109.40. The latest US data helped sustain the USD move higher, with stronger-than-expected industrial production, manufacturing output, and capacity utilisation in December. Separately, Fed’s Hammack who previously dissented in the December meeting (voted to hold), said the Fed can be patient on rate cuts, reiterating concerns over inflation. Despite the majority of markets being closed on MLK/Inauguration day on Monday, participants will remain attentive to soon-to-be US President Trump to make multiple speeches throughout the day, with the consensus for Trump to hit the ground running in his second term.

G10FX was entirely in the red as USD strength took the reins. JPY was the worst performer following two strong day of gains, even though continued sources pointed towards the BoJ hiking by 25bps. Behind the laggard performance, possible risk management could be at play with traders paring bets ahead of Monday, given the final decision will come after Trump’s inauguration; USD/JPY sits in the low end of 156, having earlier bounced all of 154.99 lows, failing its test of the 50 DMA (154.85). Relative outperformers in the space included EUR and Antipodes with the latter buoyed by a strong set of China data (more detail below). Regarding the direction of EUR/USD, MUFG “see a break of parity as now very likely, we do not expect a sustained move lower. A key risk to our view of some EUR recovery in H2 is political uncertainty with another general election in France possible from July 2025 onwards.” Ahead of the inauguration, USD/CAD rose to a peak of 1.4474, the weakest the CAD has been against the buck since March 2020.

Cable resumed its descent to the low end of 1.21, ending the week at daily lows of 1.2162, its third straight week of downside. Weighing on the Pound was a disappointing retail sales report, showing an unexpected decline of 0.3% in December (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.1%). Downside was driven by poor food sales, the lowest level since 2013 with supermarkets particularly impacted. Next week is set to be a quiet one for the Pound, with no major releases on the schedule.

EMFX: As mentioned CNH saw gains off the back of Trump’s reflection on his call with Xi Jinping, which later pared leaving USD/CNH flat on the day. Overnight, China’s GDP (Q4), industrial output (Dec) and retail sales (Dec) all beat expectations, though akin to Trump-induced upside, gains were short lived. Elsewhere, Brazil’s Finance Minister noted anything above USD/BRL 5.70 is expensive when considering economic fundamentals (currently trades ~ 6.01). In CEE, NBP Governor hit the wires following Thursday’s decision to hold the Base Rate at 5.75% (in line with expectations). The Governor said discussions about rate cuts must be delayed, with CPI likely to rise over 5% in the coming quarters, with all forecasts indicating that this year CPI will be above target; EUR/PLN was flat into the weekend.

‘

USA AFFAIRS/HEADLINES /

USA DATA

‘Renter Nation’ Returns: Trump Victory Sparks Massive Surge In Multi-Family Unit Starts In December

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 08:50 AM

From a downwardly revised 3.7% MoM drop in November, Housing Starts exploded 15.8% higher MoM in December while Building Permits (more forward looking) fell 0.7% MoM (a smaller decline than expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM jump in Starts since March 2021, dragging the total Starts SAAR to its highest since Feb 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

The dramatic surge in starts was driven by a ridiculous 58.9% MoM jump in multi-family units (while multi-family permits fell 5.8%).

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest MoM jump in multi-family starts since 2016, and the highest SAAR for ‘renter nation’ since Dec 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is – with sales expectatins falling, will homebuilders keep building at this pace…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the robust monthly advance, new home construction for all of 2024 was the slowest since 2019.

With mortgage rates now back above 7.00%, perhaps the homebuilders are betting on a return of inflation and growth meaning home-buying affordability will remain out of reach for most Americans.

However, we do note that the more forward-looking ‘permits’ headline data actually declined MoM.

Furthermore, as builders respond to more tepid demand, the number of homes under construction has been trending down in the past year and eased to the lowest since August 2021. 

Completions also slowed further, hitting the slowest pace since March.

END 

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

LOS ANGELES FIRES

The LA Fires: Progressive Governance Claims More Victims

Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 03:25 PM

Authored by William L. Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Much has been written about the recent wildfires in Los Angeles, including articles on this page and other libertarian sites. After several days of uncontrolled fire and destruction, we are very familiar with the governmental failures that have led to this current crisis. Progressivism is the guiding star of both California’s state government and local governments in the highly populated regions on the state’s Pacific Coast, and progressive policies have all but guaranteed this latest disaster.

Governing ideologies matter and matter greatly. The former Soviet Union and Nazi Germany would not have been as repressive as they were without guiding ideologies of their political leadership. Modern progressivism, while not as virulent and violent as the German and Soviet regimes, operates with a similar utopian worldview to repressive ideological regimes, and people living under progressive governments pay a serious price.

California’s governance has been ultra-progressive for more than a decade and cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have become the poster children for failed progressive regimes. Democrats hold a 3-1 edge over Republicans in both state houses, while the California congressional delegations in the US House and Senate are dominated by the Democratic Party, which has won almost all the statewide elections for office in the past 30 years. Democrats hold a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature, which means Republicans cannot mount a challenge to any policies favored by Democrats.

Not surprisingly, California’s legislation is highly progressive, from the setting of high minimum wages to environmental policies, all of which impose huge costs on Californians that people in most other states don’t directly experience. Likewise, Los Angeles and San Francisco also have progressive governments that place leftist ideology over the nuts and bolts of ordinary governance.

Like most progressives, California’s lawmakers and activists believe that they can accomplish whatever they wish through legislation and coercion. When people in California believed that insurance rates were “too high,” they pushed through Proposition 103, which, according to Connor O’Keeffe, “severely decoupled” insurance rates from risk, which encouraged more building in fire-prone areas. On top of that, California’s insurance commissioner, Ricardo Lara, has announced a one-year moratorium on insurance cancellations, which means insurance companies cannot cancel a homeowner’s policy even if they are in a fire-prone area.

By forcing the few insurance companies that still write policies in California to offer below-cost premiums in places where wildfires are likely to happen, the state is all-but-forcing these companies into bankruptcy, as the claims in the latest fires certainly will out-strip whatever revenues they received from premiums. Given that the estimated damages are likely to be the highest ever from a wildfire, perhaps more than $20 billion, this will affect insurance companies across the nation.

Not surprisingly, California’s politicians and others are blaming “climate change” for what has happened and one expects to see future lawsuits against energy companies, claiming that they have caused warming that is responsible for the current spate of wildfires in California and elsewhere. However, the real culprits are California officials themselves and the legal and regulatory straightjackets they have created that prevent people from taking the necessary actions to abate fire risks.

Elizabeth Weil, writing in ProPublica, points out that more than a century of fire suppression in California forests has created conditions that when fires start, they turn into conflagrations:

The pattern is a form of insanity: We keep doing overzealous fire suppression across California landscapes where the fire poses little risk to people and structures. As a result, wildland fuels keep building up. At the same time, the climate grows hotter and drier. Then, boom: the inevitable. The wind blows down a power line, or lightning strikes dry grass, and an inferno ensues. This week we’ve seen both the second- and third-largest fires in California history. “The fire community, the progressives, are almost in a state of panic,” Ingalsbee said. There’s only one solution, the one we know yet still avoid. “We need to get good fire on the ground and whittle down some of that fuel load.”

However, both the National Environmental Policy Act and California air quality laws, among others, make it extremely difficult to do anything to mitigate the damage done from fire suppression. As always, California governance has created perverse incentives that ensure that forest management necessary to prevent huge fires will not happen. Writes Weil:

The paydays can turn incentives upside down. “Every five, 10, 15 years, we’ll see an event where a firefighter who wants [to earn] overtime starts a fire,” said Crystal Kolden, a self-described “pyrogeographer” and assistant professor of fire science in the Management of Complex Systems Department at the University of California, Merced. (She first picked up a drip torch in 1999 when working for the U.S. Forest Service and got hooked.) “And it sort of gets painted as, ‘Well, this person is just completely nuts.’ And, you know, they maybe are.” But the financial incentives are real. “It’s very lucrative for a certain population of contractors.”

By comparison, planning a prescribed burn is cumbersome. A wildfire is categorized as an emergency, meaning firefighters pull down hazard pay and can drive a bulldozer into a protected wilderness area where regulations typically prohibit mountain bikes. Planned burns are human-made events and as such need to follow all environmental compliance rules. That includes the Clean Air Act, which limits the emission of PM 2.5, or fine particulate matter, from human-caused events. In California, those rules are enforced by CARB, the state’s mighty air resources board, and its local affiliates. “I’ve talked to many prescribed fire managers, particularly in the Sierra Nevada over the years, who’ve told me, ‘Yeah, we’ve spent thousands and thousands of dollars to get all geared up to do a prescribed burn,’ and then they get shut down.” Maybe there’s too much smog that day from agricultural emissions in the Central Valley, or even too many locals complain that they don’t like smoke. Reforms after the epic 2017 and 2018 fire seasons led to some loosening of the CARB/prescribed fire rules, but we still have a long way to go.

California has a Mediterranean climate, which means hot, dry summers and a rainy season in winter. The state heavily depends upon the snowpacks in the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades which help keep the state’s reservoirs full. The mountains of Southern California have sagebrush on the lower slopes and pine in the higher elevations, both of which are highly-flammable. Furthermore, the famed Santa Ana winds which blast off the Nevada desert to the east can turn the mountains and hills in the Los Angeles area into a tinderbox, and that is what happened with the recent fires.

Understand that this disaster was preventable. This is not a situation in which climate change has made disasters inevitable. Geographer Gilbert White famously wrote, “Floods are ‘acts of God’, but flood losses are largely acts of man.” Likewise, we can say the same about wildfires. Just as communities can take measures to prevent or mitigate flood damage, so can they take similar measures to deal with the fire threats.

To protect communities from wildfires, forests, grasslands, and other areas where dry vegetation exists must be well-managed, with controlled burns or removal of brush, blowdowns, and other materials that can turn regular fires into conflagrations. But that also means not subsidizing people who move into fire-prone areas, as is the case in California. Writes Jack Nicastro:

Though many factors contributed to the devastation (such as fire hydrants without water, too few controlled burns, and insurance price controls), it was also exacerbated by land-use policies that pushed homes and residents away from the city center and closer to the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The U.S. Fire Administration defines the WUI as “the zone of transition between unoccupied land and human development…where structures…intermingle with undeveloped wildland or vegetative fuels.”

The U.S. Forest Service’s 2020 national assessment includes the Pacific Palisades, Altadena, and most of L.A. County abutting the surrounding hills in the WUI. In 2005, the Forest Service reported that California had 5.1 million housing units in the WUI—the most in the nation. The number of housing units in the WUI has only increased since, including 140,000 subsidized by the state.

People living in the East where there is year-round rainfall and high humidity can have their cabin in the woods, given the low probability of huge forest fires. Furthermore, most eastern land is privately owned. However, the western US not only has an arid climate, but also about half of the land there is owned by the federal government, and the federal government owns about 48 percent of the land in California.

Because of federal and state fire suppression policies and political control of those lands by environmentalists, it is nearly impossible to apply wise land use policies that would prevent huge forest and woodlands fires. Likewise, with zoning laws in California pushing people into areas where wildfires are inevitable, progressive policies combine to place lives and property in danger.

Unfortunately, while we are clearly aware of the problem, a political solution is unattainable as long as progressives control policy in California. It is easier for California politicians to blame Exxon for these catastrophes than to admit that their progressive land-use policies for more than a century have been an unmitigated disaster.

END

LOS ANGELES

This is what many feared: an LA county land grab

(zerohedge)

L.A. County Land-Grab Fears Ignite: “They’re Going To Turn Altadena Into One Big Apartment Complex”

Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 05:20 PM

Fears of a land grab have erupted across fire-ravaged areas of Los Angeles County, as local and state officials have already begun discussing plans for “LA 2.0.” One user on X commented, “Tell me this was a planned demolition without telling me this was a planned demolition.” 

Governor Gavin Newsom announces a sweeping plan to rebuild Los Angeles, dubbing it "L.A. 2.0" under a Marshall Plan-inspired initiative that signals major changes for the city.

Newsom reveals he’s already mobilizing city officials, civic influencers, powerful business moguls,… pic.twitter.com/cV8C5oR5Mb

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) January 12, 2025

“They are going to turn Altadena into one gigantic apartment complex,” X user Bay Area State OF Mind said, referring to local officials who want to change zoning in the Altadena area from single-family to multi-family. In other words, some officials want to usher in the construction of apartment buildings and so-called ‘smart cities.’

They are going to turn Altadena into one gigantic apartment complex

“As we start rebuilding, starting to relax some of the zoning laws, especially in a more working class neighborhood like Altadena. So that rather than putting up single-family residences, we could allow… pic.twitter.com/8GtLVzDLlH

— BAY AREA STATE OF MIND (@YayAreaNews) January 15, 2025

Altadena (and other areas in L.A. County) could serve as a proof-of-concept for how the Democratic Party transforms single-family neighborhoods into apartment buildings in a world where citizens own nothing and will be happy. 

The cause of the fire remains undetermined at this point. However, the rapid spread was caused by high wind gusts, and “Incompetence in the limit is indistinguishable from sabotage,” Elon Musk wrote on X. 

Incompetence in the limit is indistinguishable from sabotage

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 11, 2025

The question of sabotage is a key topic on X, mainly because the main reservoir in the Palisades, which would’ve likely suppressed the fire in the early days, was completely drained. 

🚨 JUST IN: The Pacific Palisades reservoir was EMPTY AND OFFLINE when the firestorm exploded, per LA Times

This is CRIMINAL.

The reservoir holds 117 million gallons of water, and would’ve given firefighters ample pressure to effectively fight the blaze.

Overpaid Dept. of… pic.twitter.com/afvRlbLJ73

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) January 10, 2025

On Monday, Palisades homeowners sued the city of Los Angeles’ electric and water utility for not supplying enough water to firefighters. The plaintiffs claim that a reservoir in the area was drained, causing low pressure in fire hydrants.

“This was supposed to be the water to put out the Palisades fire.”

The FP’s Austyn Jeffs visits the Santa Ynez Reservoir that has reportedly been empty since February 2024. pic.twitter.com/DwO5OrYhWk

— The Free Press (@TheFP) January 11, 2025

As of Thursday morning, the Palisades and Eaton Fires continue to rage, leaving dozens dead (and counting), ten-plus thousand structures destroyed, thousands of households displaced, and entire communities leveled. Meanwhile, Democrats are already pushing the conversation to rezone some areas to accommodate high-density, Communist-style apartment blocks. 

As one X user noted, “Tell me this was a planned demolition without telling me this was a planned demolition.”

All right before the L.A. 2028 Olympics… Makes you wonder. 

END

CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO

this is huge!

“This Is A Disaster”: Fire Erupts At California Battery Storage Plant

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 06:55 AM

If the raging wildfires across Los Angeles County weren’t enough, California faced another crisis overnight as one of the world’s largest battery storage facilities, situated about 100 miles south of San Francisco, caught fire, triggering area-wide evacuations. 

AP News reported that a fire broke out Thursday at the Moss Landing Power Plant, a natural gas-fired generation plant with thousands of lithium batteries for energy storage. Fires involving lithium batteries, as seen with electric vehicles, are notoriously difficult to extinguish and could burn uncontrollably for days. 

“There’s no way to sugarcoat it. This is a disaster, is what it is,” Monterey County Supervisor Glenn Church told local media outlet KSBW-TV. However, Church did not expect the fire to spread outside the perimeter of the plant. 

Local media outlet The Mercury News noted that fires at the Vistra plant, which Vistra Energy owns, and one of the largest battery storage facilities in the world boasting a capacity of 750 megawatts and 3,000 megawatt-hours, experienced fires in 2021 and 2022. The energy storage facility plays a massive role in stabilizing California’s power grid.

It’s unclear at this point what started the fire. Local authorities evacuated more than 2,000 people around the plant due to concerns over hazardous materials and potential chemical releases. 

There's an ongoing fire at the Vistra Power Plant Moss Landing. Heat signature can be seen in satellite imagery. https://t.co/9HOW56poM7 #CAwx pic.twitter.com/sH3vGbZcVR

— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 17, 2025

“Our top priority is the safety of the community and our personnel, and Vistra deeply appreciates the continued assistance of our local emergency responders,” Jenny Lyon, a spokesperson for Vistra, said in a statement.

KSBW said Vistra confirmed the fire was detected in the 300-MW Phase I energy storage facility. 

Here’s footage of the fire posted on X:

🚨#BREAKING: Evacuation orders have been issued after a lithium battery plant caught fire releasing hazardous toxins into the air⁰⁰📌#MossLanding | #Californa ⁰⁰Currently, numerous emergency crews are on the scene of a massive fire broke out at the Moss Landing Power Plant's… pic.twitter.com/MMcpY0yka1

— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) January 17, 2025

North County Fire is currently addressing a fire at the Moss Landing Power Plant.

As a precaution, individuals in Zones MRY-B047 and MRY-B053 are advised to close their windows and doors, and turn off any air systems until further notice. pic.twitter.com/VlMFxaYhik

— California Fire Tracker (@deb8rr) January 17, 2025

Elon Musk on X denounced far-left MSM for spreading misinformation and disinformation about the fire:  

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOltdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2ZvbGxvd2VyX2NvdW50X3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19yZWZzcmNfc2Vzc2lvbiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZm9zbnJfc29mdF9pbnRlcnZlbnRpb25zX2VuYWJsZWQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X21peGVkX21lZGlhXzE1ODk3Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRyZWF0bWVudCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3Nob3dfYmlyZHdhdGNoX3Bpdm90c19lbmFibGVkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdXNlX3Byb2ZpbGVfaW1hZ2Vfc2hhcGVfZW5hYmxlZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdmlkZW9faGxzX2R5bmFtaWNfbWFuaWZlc3RzXzE1MDgyIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRydWVfYml0cmF0ZSIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfbGVnYWN5X3RpbWVsaW5lX3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1880162891283984417&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fdisaster-fire-erupts-california-battery-storage-plant&sessionId=acb34380efc612ae1fbeb3ebe647404da722f017&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

There’s no update yet on the current grid impacts or how operations at the Moss Landing Power Plant are affected. It’s another setback for Democrats in their push for a ‘green’ utopia in a state that seems to be imploding by the week.

end

ROBERT H

VERY DANGEROUS!

R A W S A L E R T S on X: “#BREAKING: Evacuation orders have been issued after a lithium battery plant caught fire releasing hazardous toxins into the air #MossLanding | #Californa Currently, numerous emergency crews are on the scene of a massive fire broke out at the Moss Landing Power Plant’s https://t.co/MMcpY0yka1″ / X

https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1880115898276597875

PORTLAND ORE.

FUNNY!!

(Headline USA)

Portland May Cut ‘Equity’ Jobs Due To Budget Problems

Thursday, Jan 16, 2025 – 10:35 PM

Authored by Matt Lamb via Headline USA,

A top official in Portland said the Oregon city may need to cut “equity” roles due to a pending budget deficit.

The city is forecasting a $27 million budget shortfall starting in the new fiscal year, according to its official website.

This has led city administrator Michael Jordan to warn of cuts to “equity” jobs. That spells trouble for three new officer positions focused on “equity, communications, and engagement,” according to the Willamette Week.

“As we proceed through the assessment process, it is possible that there will be cuts,” Jordan told the local news outlet. Other cuts include communications and engagement budgets.

The city has regularly hired for DEI roles with nice salaries. For example, the Parks and Recreation Department advertised an “equity and inclusion coordinator” job that topped out at a $104,000-per-year salary. The job would research “racial equity and inclusion best practices” and provide advice to the bureau on “racial equity assessment tools.”

This job should not be confused with a 2023 posting for an “equity and engagement planner” job in the bureau of planning and sustainability.

That analyst position, with pay reaching nearly $150,000 annually, required a “subject matter expert on equity, diversity, and inclusion” who could implement “equity frameworks.”

The hire would also conduct “racial equity” studies on “land use, climate justice, waste systems and community technology.”

The Office of Equity and Human Rights is overseen by the city administrator.

The city leans heavily into LGBT issues as well. The equity office publishes an “LGBTQIA2S+ Policy,” noting that 11% of city workers identified as being on the sexually divergent spectrum, and 15% did not select male or female when asked for their sex.

The policy program “approaches LGBTQIA2S+ equity work with an intersectional lens, centering the most marginalized demographics within the community.”

Portland is now led by Mayor Keith Wilson. For years, Ted Wheeler ran the city, largely letting homelessness run rampant and overseeing violent crime from domestic terror group Antifa.

He also used pepper spray on his own citizen, whom he accused of harassing him in 2021 for not wearing a mask while inside.

“I clearly informed him that he needed to back off,” Wheeler told police.

“He did not do so … I pulled out my pepper spray and I sprayed him in the eyes,” Wheeler continued. “He seemed surprised, and backed off. He made a comment like, ‘I can’t believe you just pepper-sprayed me.’”

However, Wheeler previously prohibited police from using tear gas during the city’s riots in 2020.

END

WASHINGTON DC/INAUGURATION

Authorities Preparing For “Worst Case Scenarios” Ahead Of Trump Inauguration

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 10:20 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Authorities in Washington DC are scanning for “nuclear irregularities” while the Secret Service preps for “worst case scenarios” as security preparations kick into high gear ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump will be sworn in for his second term in office on Monday, January 20th.

A report by CBS News reveals how Department of Energy helicopters are flying in grid patterns around the city from only 150 feet in the air in order to “scan for radiological or nuclear irregularities.”

Officials are attempting to map a “blueprint” of normal radiation readings over Washington in order to detect anything unusual like potential dirty bombs.

🚨BREAKING: Ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, Department of Energy helicopters are conducting scans over Washington, D.C. for “nuclear irregularities.”
pic.twitter.com/F5yPKYXor1

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 17, 2025

Any slight variation in readings sets off an alarm which is then investigated by the pilots.

The U.S. Secret Service, which has faced criticism for its previous lax security measures around Trump, is also roleplaying “worst case scenarios” that could interrupt the inauguration process.

According to Assistant Special Agent in Charge Michael Thomas, security measures for Trump’s inauguration will eclipse anything previously seen.

This includes the presence of 25,000 law enforcement officers and military personnel, including 7,800 National Guard soldiers.

30 miles of ‘anti-scale’ fencing around the site of the inauguration will also provide a “ring of steel” to protect the event and its 250,000 attendees.

More than 25 Coast Guard vessels are also in position to patrol the area.

During last month’s concern over mystery drones seen flying around the United States, one theory was that the drones were being flown by the U.S. Military to scan for missing nuclear material.

Trump continues to face a heightened threat after facing three assassination attempts over the last 6 months, with some of his supporters urging him to not even attend the inauguration in person.

*  *  *

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

END

VDH

KING REPORT

he King Report January 17, 2025 Issue 7412

Independent View of the News

@Jkylebass: China is experiencing a complete financial crash. China’s 10Yr govt bonds yield 1.65%, their ‘policy overnight rate’ sits at 1.5%, their real estate collapse continues (Vanke 2025 bonds collapsing this week), and overnight rate just spiked to 16%. Complete disaster for Xi. https://x.com/Jkylebass/status/1879869755240431712   At his Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday, DJT-nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said China was in a severe recession or depression and it is trying to export its way out of the mess.  Scott warned that if tax cuts are not renewed, the US would trigger an “economic calamity.” https://www.ft.com/content/545a0902-e76f-4f88-be4d-032b6a2c0e54   @CortesSteve: Watch this mic drop moment from President Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent destroying the Democrats’ war against fossil fuels:  Dem Sen. Wyden: “We are in an arms race in clean energy with China. Are you going to be on the side of people who want to unravel this?”    Bessent: “Just so we can frame this for everyone in this room, China will build a 100 new coal plants this year. There is not a clean energy race. There’s an energy race.” https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1879930119382602054   BOJ chief Ueda signals rate hike chance next week, yen jumps Ueda said the central bank would raise rates if improvements in the economy and prices continue… https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-will-raise-rates-if-economy-price-conditions-continue-improve-ueda-says-2025-01-15/   US economic data released on ThursdayDec Retail Sales 0.4% m/m, 0.6% m/m exp., 0.8% prior revised from 0.7%Ex-Auto 0.4%, 0.5% exp., 0.2% prior, Ex-Auto & Gas 0.3%, 0.4% exp., 0.2% priorDec Import Price Index +0.1% m/m & .2.2% y/y, -0.1% m/m & +2.1% y/y exp.Ex-Petro 0.2% m/m, -0.1% exp.Export Price Index 0.3% m/m & 1.8% y/y, 0.1% m/m & 1.6% y/y exp.Jan Phil Fed Business Outlook 44.3, -5.0 exp., -10.9 prior (revised from -16.4Initial Jobless Claims 217k, 210k exp., 103k priorContinuing Claims 1.859m, 1.87m exp., 1.877m priorJan NAHB Housing Market Index 47, 45 exp., 46 prior  The Philadelphia Fed Jan Prices Paid reading hit its highest level since Dec. 2022.  Gold jumped on it.   @ClevFedResearch: Median CPI rose 0.3% in December and 3.8% on a year-over-year basis.  See our latest median #CPI and trimmed mean CPI updates: https://t.co/UoucgyG9ik   While some leftist and anti-DJT Fed officials have become more hawkish since DJT won, former hawk, Fed Gov. Waller, has turned dovish.  It is a transparent effort to suck up to DJT and procure the Fed chair.   Fed’s Waller Says Fresh Rate Cuts Possible in First Half of 2025 (if inflation falls) – BBG 10:23 ET https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-waller-says-fresh-rate-152357993.html   Precious metals rallied sharply early on Thursday; USHs rallied a tad; stocks were soft, but the DJTA and Fangs rallied modestly.  Gasoline and oil declined smartly on profit taking.   ESHs rallied during early Nikkei trading but hit a peak of 6002.00 at 19:27 ET.  ESHs then declined to 5983.00 at 0:39 ET.  Ten minutes after the 1:00 ET Nikkei close, ESHs explodes higher and hit the daily high of 6017.50 at 2:58 ET.  After the 3:00 ET European opening, ESHs commenced a broad stair-step decline that took ESHs to a daily low of 5973.25 at 10:01 ET.   After a moderate rebound, ESHs vacillated wildly, in a large range, until they broke higher at 10:57 ET.  ESHs topped out 11 minutes later at 6004.25.  ESHs then retreated to 5978.75 at 11:42 ET.  Instead of the usual manipulation into the 11:30 ET European close, there was liquidation.   ESHs then rebounded to 5996.75 at 12:02 ET.  But the Afternoon Rally aborted quickly; ESHs sank to a new daily low of 5969.00 at 13:48 ET.  The second afternoon rally attempt was more successful; ESHs rebounded to 5993.50 at 15:06 ET.  The late manipulation forced ESHs to 5991.00 at 15:42 ET.  ESHs then sank to 5972.00 at 16:03 ET.  Just like on Wednesday, too many traders were long expiring calls.   Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied sharply on large gains in ground transportation stocks. Energy commodities finally retreated: USHs were +15/32 at the NYSE close.   Negative aspects of previous session Gold rallied sharply on new evidence that inflation is rebounding. ESHs hit their daily high just after the European opening.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Was Weird Wednesday the peak for Expiry Week?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5944.25 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5964.69; 5930.72   Fox: Netanyahu delays vote on Gaza cease-fire deal, accusing Hamas of trying to back out of deal https://www.foxnews.com/world/israels-netanyahu-accuses-hamas-trying-back-out-cease-fire-deal   @ariel_oseran: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called US President-elect Trump to thank him for his help in reaching a hostage release deal. According to a statement by Netanyahu’s office, the two agreed to meet soon in Washington. Netanyahu then spoke with US President Joe Biden, and also thanked him for his help in promoting the hostage deal…  https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/1879642282846269817   @LucasFoxNews: Waltz: “We’ve made it very clear to the Israelis…if they need to go back in, we’re with them if Hamas doesn’t live up to the terms of this agreement,” Trump’s incoming national security adviser tells @BretBaier. “Hamas is not going to continue as a military entity, and it’s certainly not going to govern Gaza.”   @AFP: Israel has accused Hamas of backtracking on parts of a fragile ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Gaza war and carried out fresh air strikes ahead of an expected vote by the cabinet.   @Osint613: U.S. State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller reports that out of the 7 American hostages in Gaza, only 3 are believed to be alive, while the remaining 4 are confirmed dead.   @foxnewspolitics: 145 House Dems vote against bill to deport migrants who commit sexual assault https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dems-vote-against-bill-deport-migrants-who-commit-sexual-assault   @SageListener: Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of the LA Times and a renowned transplant surgeon, is raising alarms about the fallout from mRNA COVID-19 “vaccines,” linking them to unprecedented deaths and cancers in children. “For the first time in my career, I’ve seen an 8-year-old, 9-year-old, and 10-year-old with colon cancer.” “A 13-year-old child died of metastatic pancreatic cancer.”     He has thrown his support behind Robert F. Kennedy Jr., stating Kennedy “knows more about the science than most doctors.” These revelations demand urgent attention. https://x.com/SageListener/status/1879144318579179609   @stephmase22: The story of Ken Griffin and the start of @citsecurities – He always used Short Selling as his strategy but now he stepped it up to Naked Short Selling, Skimming, Misreporting, Spoofing, Front Running and Selling securities he doesn’t own and can’t deliver and paying off regulators and Politicians. It’s not talent or smart money.  It’s CORRUPT MONEY https://x.com/stephmase22/status/1879555050839920687   @AutismCapital: PETER ROBINSON: “The first nuclear submarine was commissioned in 1955 which means that the United States of America has been building and operating small nuclear reactors for 6-7 decades and has the systems down so well that they can be operated by 19-year-old kids who haven’t even finished their high school degrees, and the technology is owned by the American taxpayers. Why aren’t we using this?     ANDREESSEN: “They literally take 19-year-old kids and train them to be nuclear engineers and send them out on 6-month missions underwater and there’s never been a nuclear incident… https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1879375255627862237   Fed Balance Sheet: $19.484B with Treasuries -$16.452B; Reserves at Fed: +86.073B   Today – As we opined in yesterday’s missive: It’s highly probable that Weird Wednesday was the peak intensity of the Expiry Week manipulation.  When there are robust rallies early in Expiry Week and a big Weird Wednesday rally, the remainder of the week is often soft.  Traders that got long for the festivities are eager to book profits.  The last-hour decline on Wednesday suggests that profit taking has commenced and/or too many small traders were long 0dte calls.  If stocks rally in morning or at midday, be alert for an afternoon decline.   Today is expiration for January options.  Anything is possible.  However, it appears that the Expiry Week manipulation peaked on Weird Wednesday and traders are trying to liquidate expiring calls.  The more important issue for traders is technical: The S&P 500 Index has rebounded to its 500-day moving average.  If it cannot decisively break through it, a test of the January low should appear in quick order.   S&P 500 Index with 50 DMA, 100 DMA, 150 DMA, and 200 Day Moving Average   With the markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, there could be a greater urge to sell.   Expected earnings: FAST .48, SLB .90, STT 2.44   ESHs are +3.50; NQHs +6.00; and USHs -2/32 at 20:15 ET.  The Nikkei was -1.2% at 19:25 ET.   Expected Economic Data: Dec Housing Starts 1.327m, Permits 1.46m; Dec Industrial Production 0.3% m/m, Mfg. Production 0.2%, Capacity Utilization 77.0%   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5962; 100-day MA: 5832; 150-day MA: 5716; 200-day MA: 5586 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,504; 100-day MA: 42,721; 150-day MA: 41,739; 200-day MA: 40,992 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5937.34 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5367.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5973.06 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5866.69 triggers a sell signal   Biden sits on pillow to boost himself up during farewell address President Biden sat on a pillow for an extra boost as he delivered his 18-minute farewell address to the nation from the Oval Office Wednesday night… The images also show an emergency box of tissues and glass of water placed to Biden’s right — invisible below his desk from the front-view cameras that streamed his speech to the nation… The lame-duck president warned against “dark money” in politics and urged Congress to ban its members from trading stock.     His comments were quickly slammed as hypocritical by critics. Fox News’ Dana Perino commented on air after the speech, “When he talks about dark money, does he not remember that just last week, he gave the Medal of Freedom award to George Soros?”… https://t.co/wurtWwGpon   Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson): The American people didn’t need a speech to know what President Biden’s legacy is: an open border, skyrocketing costs, disastrous foreign policy, a weaponized DOJ, and a cover-up of his cognitive decline. They know his record well and they rejected it in November   ‘Worst farewell speech in presidential history’: Biden’s Oval Office goodbye panned as ‘dark’ https://t.co/trlIJpDHQV   Fox’s @PhilipWegmann: After Democrats went all in on abortion in the last presidential election and midterms, President Biden didn’t even mention it once in his farewell address.   Biden leaving office with record-low approval rating — 61% say his presidency was a failure: poll https://t.co/L4vUH3TeQV   Ex-Clinton Advisor @Mark_Penn: Farewell Biden – The danger that Joe Biden failed to warn about in his speech was the power of government and its abuse.     Abuse when government determines what can and cannot be written on social media.    Abuse when government gives jobs and money to political friends instead of those most qualified.    Abuse when political opponents are arrested and charged at the urging of the president.    Abuse when the laws are not enforced and the border left open for political reasons.    Abuse when hundreds of billions of dollars in loans are forgiven for political gain despite court rulings.    Abuse when a president says others should pay taxes while pardoning his own son for failing to pay taxes on millions shaken out of shady global interests. Farewell to the almost unprecedented abuse of government power, the core value of the constitution.   Biden orders milkshakes in bizarre behind-the-scenes video of final days in White House “Honestly Biden aimlessly wandering the halls of the White House slurping a milkshake is pretty much how I thought the last 4 years went,” one X user snarked… https://nypost.com/2025/01/16/us-news/biden-orders-milkshakes-in-bizarre-behind-the-scenes-video-of-final-days-in-white-house/   @ReutersBiz: A bipartisan group of US senators called on US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to stop ‘secret negotiations’ with Mexico, Canada and Colombia that they say would weaken investor protections in some US free trade deals during Biden’s final days https://t.co/OBQV3KfOl9   @lsferguson: I asked this question every morning for almost four years.  “Who gave the order to stop counting votes in the swing states on the night of November 3/4, 2020?”  This would be a great place for Kash Patel and Pam Bondi to start unravelling the stolen 2020 Presidential election, the biggest crime in American history.   Florida Gov Ron DeSantis appointed Florida AG Ashley Moody to fill Marco Rubio’s vacant Senate seat.   Trump named Bill Pulte to be the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.   DJT: It is my honor to announce Jon Voight, Mel Gibson, and Sylvester Stallone, to be Special Ambassadors to a great but very troubled place, Hollywood, California. They will serve as Special Envoys to me for the purpose of bringing Hollywood, which has lost much business over the last four years to Foreign Countries… It will again be, like The United States of America itself, The Golden Age of Hollywood! https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1879963668307407262   Melania Trump takes vicious jab at Obamas, claiming they ‘withheld’ information during transition in Donald’s first presidency https://nypost.com/2025/01/16/us-news/melania-trump-says-obamas-withheld-information-during-transition/   Washington Post cartoonist ‘made child porn using AI’ https://t.co/CcCw9bab76   Trump-bashing Pulitzer Prize-winning political cartoonist arrested on child porn charges https://t.co/Fpr5Lw3Waw   LAFD chief reportedly named in suit saying she axed employee for exposing financial misconduct, harassment https://t.co/r5u22anrJn   Eagles Fan Who Dropped C-Word on Packers Supporter Fired from DEI Consulting Job https://t.co/k3ki3hJi6s   Fox News reports the FBI has closed its DEI office.   @jacobkschneider: KAMALA: “I am fully aware that I am the public face of a lot of our work and so I have the benefit of running into people all over our country who thank me…” https://x.com/jacobkschneider/status/1880010520293683364   The Vatican City State has toughened sanctions for those who try to illegally enter its territory in areas where free access is not allowed. (But the leftist pope endorses open borders) https://t.co/PRebGFb0hs   Pope: Driving away migrants is a ‘grave sin’ https://www.usccb.org/news/2024/pope-driving-away-migrants-grave-sin   @boonecutler: On January 21~ 25, 2025, the Cosmos will present a Spectacular event known as a Planetary Alignment, where all Major Planets in our Solar System will line up in a Harmonious Formation.   https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/seven-planets-will-soon-align-creating-a-planet-parade-in-the-sky

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SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Biden Commutes Sentences For Nearly 2,500 Americans Convicted Of Non-Violent Drug Offenses

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 08:45 AM

President Joe Biden said on Jan. 17 that he is commuting the sentences of nearly 2,500 individuals, marking the largest single-day act of clemency in modern history.

The latest pardons are being granted to people who were convicted of non-violent drug offenses and who are serving “disproportionately long” sentences compared to those they would receive today under current law, policy, and practice, Biden said in a statement published by the White House.

As Katabella Roberts reports for The Epoch Times, Biden pointed to two pieces of legislation: the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, which reduced the disparity in sentences for crack cocaine and powder cocaine offenses from a weight ratio of 100 to 1 to 18 to 1, and the First Step Act of 2018, aimed at reducing the size of the federal prison population while promoting rehabilitation.

The previous weight ratio of 100 to 1 meant that 5 grams of crack cocaine, for example, was treated as equivalent to 500 grams of powder cocaine for sentencing purposes.

“Today’s clemency action provides relief for individuals who received lengthy sentences based on discredited distinctions between crack and powder cocaine, as well as outdated sentencing enhancements for drug crimes,” Biden said.

“As Congress recognized through the Fair Sentencing Act and the First Step Act, it is time that we equalize these sentencing disparities,” Biden said.

With this latest action, Biden has now issued more individual pardons and commutations than any president in U.S. history.

“This action is an important step toward righting historic wrongs, correcting sentencing disparities, and providing deserving individuals the opportunity to return to their families and communities after spending far too much time behind bars,” Biden said.

“I am proud of my record on clemency and will continue to review additional commutations and pardons.”

The White House did not immediately release the names of those receiving commutations.

Biden Pardons Hunter, Death Row Inmates

In December 2024, Biden said he was pardoning 39 people and commuting the sentences of nearly 1,500 others who had been convicted of nonviolent crimes such as drug offenses. The president said at the time that these commutation recipients were placed in home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic and “have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities and have shown that they deserve a second chance.”

In a separate statement, the White House said many of those impacted by December’s pardons and commutation were parents, veterans, health care professionals, teachers, advocates, and engaged members of their communities who had “used their experiences in the criminal justice system to inspire and encourage others.”

Also in December, Biden announced he was commuting the sentences of 37 of the 40 individuals on death row, reclassifying their penalty to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

Biden has advocated for an end to the death penalty at the federal level in the United States except for limited cases of terrorism and hate-motivated mass murder.

When he first took office, he imposed a moratorium on federal executions while the Justice Department reviewed policies and procedures surrounding the practice.

He commuted 37 sentences, leaving three federal inmates facing execution: 2013 Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev; Dylann Roof, who shot and killed nine people at a church in South Carolina in 2015; and Robert Bowers, who fatally shot 11 congregants at Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue in 2018.

Earlier in December, Biden pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, who had been criminally convicted and was facing sentencing in two separate cases involving tax evasion and illegal possession of a firearm.

Biden is set to leave office on Jan. 20. His successor, President-elect Donald Trump, has vowed to expand executions for federal inmates in order to “protect American families and children from violent rapists, murderers, and monsters” and restore law and order.

END

FBI Nukes DEI Office, Trump Demands “All Records To Be Preserved”

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 10:00 AM

Fox News confirmed on Thursday that the FBI has shuttered its Office of Diversity and Inclusion (ODI). Shortly after the announcement, President-elect Donald Trump called for “all records” related to the woke unit of the federal agency to be preserved. The move comes amid a broader rollback of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives across corporate America and other parts of the federal government. Critics, including Trump, argue that prioritizing DEI over meritocracy in the last decade has harmed the nation, pledging that meritocracy will be made great again under his incoming administration. 

“In recent weeks, the FBI took steps to close the Office of Diversity and Inclusion (ODI), effective by December 2024,” the FBI informed Fox News. The federal agency—widely criticized for being weaponized by radical leftists to target political opponents—offered no explanation for the sudden closure of its DEI unit—speculation, however, as a new sheriff steps into the White House on Monday afternoon. 

Following the Fox News report, Trump on Truth Social wrote: “We demand that the FBI preserve and retain all records, documents, and information on the now closing DEI Office—Never should have been opened and, if it was, should have closed long ago. Why is it that they’re closing one day before the Inauguration of a new Administration? The reason is, CORRUPTION!” 

“The question is why were they allowed to be focused on DEI in the first place?” Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) wrote on X. 

The question is why were they allowed to be focused on DEI in the first place?

The FBI should be focused on catching criminals, not winning participation trophies. https://t.co/gawzWIMI64

— Sen. Marsha Blackburn (@MarshaBlackburn) January 16, 2025

Blackburn said, “The FBI should be focused on catching criminals, not winning participation trophies.” 

Earlier this month, Blackburn penned a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray claiming that “radical” DEI practices had “endangered” Americans following the terrorist attack on Bourdon Street.

“I am deeply concerned that—under your leadership—the Bureau has prioritized DEI initiatives over its core mission of protecting the American people,” Balckburn wrote in the Jan. 3 letter after referencing the terrorist attack. 

Former FBI special agent and Fox News contributor Nicole Parker noted, “I appreciate all forms of diversity. Make no mistake of that. What I do not appreciate is when there is a constant push for social justice weaponization at the FBI whose top priorities are to protect the American people and uphold the Constitution.”

“I will end all of the Marxist diversity, equity and inclusion policies across the entire federal government immediately,” Trump said in December. This comes as Trump tapped White House national security official Kash Patel to overhaul the FBI. 

Once the American people recognize that DEI was never designed to succeed but instead destroy the current system and pave the way for a socialist reconstruction of America via Marxist Democrats, these nation-killing initiatives will then be eradicated—not just from federal, state and local governments, and or the military, but also from corporate America. 

Last week, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg got the memo. He nuked DEI from Facebook and Instagram, sending “morale for queer staff in the shitter.” The woke retreat has begun in corporate America and government.

END

Treasury Secretary Yellen’s Computer Among 400 Other Systems Hacked By China

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 12:00 PM

In one last masterstroke of incompetence on her way out the door, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has had her computer hacked by China. We don’t really care about the integrity of the U.S. economy, we just hope to God there’s no nudes to leak.

Chinese hackers who breached the Treasury Department were focused on “sanctions, international affairs and intelligence”, according to a new report from Bloomberg that detailed the breach. 

The breach reached “more than 400 laptop and desktop computers”, the report says. 

Hackers accessed employee credentials and over 3,000 files from unclassified personal computers, including policy documents, travel records, organizational charts, and sensitive law enforcement data, the report revealed. While they likely stole some material, classified and email systems were not breached.

The Bloomberg report said the hackers also accessed files related to investigations by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which assesses national security risks of certain real estate and foreign investments.

A report to Congress reveals that Chinese state-sponsored hackers, identified as Silk Typhoon or UNC5221, breached the Treasury Department through a contractor’s network, prioritizing document theft and operating stealthily.

While no malware or long-term intelligence gathering was detected, sensitive systems remained uncompromised. Treasury reported the breach promptly and sought assistance from federal agencies. Treasury and FBI representatives declined to comment.

China has denied allegations of state-sponsored cyberattacks, dismissing claims of involvement in the Treasury hack as “groundless.”

Hackers accessed 419 computers between late September and mid-November, targeting offices dealing with foreign assets, international affairs, and intelligence, as well as senior officials and personal financial records.

A damage assessment is ongoing, and Treasury staff are set to brief the Senate Banking Committee. Treasury disconnected BeyondTrust, the compromised contractor, and is considering alternatives, though no immediate failures have been identified.

Reuters reported the hackers even breached U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s computer and computers of two of Yellen’s lieutenants, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Acting Under Secretary Brad Smith. 

“The hackers accessed fewer than 50 files on Yellen’s machine,” Reuters concluded. 

END

“Neo-Nazi Madness”: Stanford Law Professor Publicly Rebukes Zuckerberg And Drops Him As A Client

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Jan 17, 2025 – 03:05 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

As lawyers, we often take a series of steps to protect the interests of our clients when it becomes necessary to sever or end representation. The dropping of a client can have a damaging impact on the reputation or standing of a client. That is why it was surprising to see Mark Lemley, a Stanford law professor publicly denounce Mark Zuckerberg as part of social media tirade. It is a deeply concerning lesson for students at a law school already rocked by prior controversies over intolerance for opposing viewpoints.

When we take on a client, we are closely identified with their interests and their case. That creates a deep professional obligation not to use that relationship for our own benefit against the interests of our client. Thus, a lawyer cannot sever an unpopular criminal defendant by denouncing him as morally reprehensible.

We continue to shoulder that obligation even after we end our representations. (I have had to sever clients in the past and avoided any public statement on the reasons or critical comments tied to the cases).

Professor Lemley did not represent Zuckerberg in a criminal matter. However, he was counsel in the high-profile representation of Meta in 2023 after comedian Sarah Silverman and other authors sued the company for alleged copyright violations.

After Zuckerberg recently pledged to restore free speech protections on Meta, many on the left went positively berserk.

This week, Lemley, a partner at the law firm Lex Lumina, decided that he was not content with simply severing the representation without fanfare or embarrassment to his clients.

Instead, he decided to publish a tirade on LinkedIn to denounce Zuckerberg’s “descent into toxic masculinity and Neo-Nazi madness.”

He declared “While I think they are on the right side in the generative AI copyright dispute in which I represented them, and I hope they win, I cannot in good conscience serve as their lawyer any longer.”

He further declared that he deactivated his Threads account because he did not want to “support a Twitter-like site run by a Musk wannabe.”

Rather than expressing concern over the trashing of a former client, Rhett Millsaps, managing partner of Lex Lumina, stated, “Money can’t buy everyone. We’re proud to be a firm that doesn’t sell out our values. Sadly, it seems this is becoming a rarer and rarer quality in America today.”

The incident raises a question that can be uncertain and difficult for many lawyers. I do not believe that Professor Lemley should be forced into a life of monastic silence over Meta policies unrelated to his litigation. Zuckerberg is a public figure and Lemley often engages in public commentary.

What concerns me is the nexus drawn by both Lemley and Lex Lumina to their representation of Zuckerberg to magnify their message of opposition. They could have simply severed representations without comment while Lemley could have continued his commentary in opposition to the new free speech policies. Frankly, while Professor Lemley is a respected and accomplished academic, it is doubtful that such criticism would have generated significant media attention. It was the connection to severing representation that amplified the message and caused the criticism to go viral.

Instead, the media is aflame with stories of how even Zuckerberg’s own lawyer and law firm cannot abide him. That was the obvious result of the public statements made by Lemley and the firm in demonizing their former client and citing their severance as morally compelled by his policies.

This can clearly be a gray area for many lawyers. The rules expressly prevent a lawyer from representing a client in an adverse case against a prior client or using information derived from the prior case. That is not the case here. Indeed, Professor Lemley appears to stand by the merits of the earlier case. The question is whether lawyers should use their prior representation as a type of cudgel in a public denunciation of a former client, using their prior representation to elevate their own voices.

None of this sits well with me, but I may be “old school” on such professional conduct issues. I would feel the same way if a lawyer attacked an anti-free speech figure like Hillary Clinton by emphasizing their prior representation. Once again, I am not suggesting that representation bars lawyers from criticizing former, high-profile clients. Professor Lemley has free speech rights and strong opinions in this area. However, the use of the severance or termination of representation as part of that criticism is deeply problematic in my view.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

GREG HUNTER

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