JAN 24/GOLD CLOSED UP $16.00 TO $2773.00 SURPRASSING ITS ALL TIME HIGH IN DOLLAR TERMS//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.21 TO $30.68//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $2.30 TO $951.20 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $8.85 TO $990.15//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER PODCAST COURTESY OF ANDREW MAGUIRE : LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 207//A SHOCKING AND BRUTAL STABBING (AND KILLING) OF A TWO YEAR OLD TODDLER IN GERMANY BY AN AFGHAN MIGRANT//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//HOSTAGE RELEASE UPDATES//EXCELLENT COMMENTARY FROM BAS GRIFFIN OF RABOBANK AND VICTOR DAVIS HANSON////USA NEWS//USA DEPORTATION UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2772.80

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.66

Bitcoin morning price:$105,460 UP 450 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $105,040 UP 30 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $2.30 TO $951.20

Palladium price; DOWN $8.85 TO $990.15

END

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END

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,763.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/23/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 01/27/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


167 C MAREX 119
190 H BMO CAPITAL 418
323 C HSBC 320
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 166
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 108
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 342
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 345
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 18 10
709 C BARCLAYS 306
737 C ADVANTAGE 30 23


TOTAL: 1,103 1,103

JPMorgan stopped (received) 0/1103 contracts


FOR  JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $16.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.21 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV///

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1565 CONTRACTS TO 162,374 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0,41  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2240 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 3 WEEKS WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE FALL IN SILVER’S PRICE AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS. THEY SUCCEEDED A BIT WITH THURSDAY’S PRICING LOSS BUT WE HAD ZERO LONGS BEING KNOCKED OFF WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. DERIVATIVE LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THURSDAY COUPLED WITH ANOTHER NEW STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 567 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.00 DOLLAR MARK. THE FRONT MONTH OF FEB STILL HAS A HUGE CONTANGO TO SPOT AS THE CROOKS NEED TO CASH SETTLE TO GET OUT OF THEIR CONTRACTS. THEY ARE PAYING A HUGE PRICE AS THEY ARE SHORT (AND THUS SUPPLIER TO OUR PATIENT- WAITING LONGS).

WE HAD A STRONG 675 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR 567 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 2240 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THURSDAY’S COMEX SESSION

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH YESTERDAY’S RAID.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: A STRONG 567 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS ESPECIALLY WITH OUR RAID ON JANUARY 13 AND AGAIN JAN 23. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY  $0.41 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2240 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A 675 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.585 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN +// A STRONG 675 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 567 CONTRACTS)/

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15  DAYS, total 9194 contracts:   OR 45.970 MILLION OZ  (612 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  45.970 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1565  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX/THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 675 EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 675 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF  8.110 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5,000 OZ

WE HAVE 1. A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2240 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN  PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 567CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. ZERO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT   (567) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE

WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4566 OI CONTRACTS  TO 586,555 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.)

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (4566 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS  OF $1.00 IN PRICE THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 10.1331 TONNES  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 1624 CONTRACTS OR 162,400 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD THE FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS TOTALLING 1700 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ (5.28775 TONNES) ISSUED JAN 6/2025 TO WHICH WE ADD JAN 8 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 150 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES THEN LAST WEEK’S ISSUANCE OF 85 CONTRACTS//8500 OZ OR .2644 TONNES. THEN FINALLY THIS WEEK’S (JAN 22) ISSUANCE OF 5000 CONTRACTS FOR 5 MILLION OZ AND LAST NIGHT”S 500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR A TOTAL EX FOR RISK OF 23.134 TONNES//NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO 54.074 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) +23.134 TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE = 77.208 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $1.00 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 7596 OI CONTRACTS (23,63 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES ON 5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3030 CONTRACTS:

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7596 CONTRACTS  WITH 4566 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 3030 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7596 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED AND CRIMINAL 3515 CONTRACTS ISSUED.

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3030 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 4566 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14,159 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN 10.1331 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OF 1624 CONTRACTS OR 162400 OZ (5.05 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH FOR 23.134 TONNES OF GOLD.

NEW STANDING FOR JAN ADVANCES TO:

54.074TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY +

23.134 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON OUR FIVE OCCASIONS IN JANUARY (6TH 8TH,17TH, 22ND AND 24TH)

EQUALS: 77/208 TONNES

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE THURSDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WITH OUR1)  $1.00 PRICE LOSS, WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A HUGE TOTAL GAIN OF CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (7596 CONTRACTS). ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///HUGE T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 3515 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

JAN

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 64,963 CONTRACTS OF 6,496,300 OZ OR 202.06 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4330 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  202.06 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  202.06 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.77% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1540 CONTRACTS OI  TO 162,374 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 675 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 675 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 675 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1565  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 675 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2240 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS A  HUGE 11.200 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR   $0.41 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.46 OR 0.70%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 365.63 PTS OR 1.86%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 26.89 OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .36%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2467 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2511// Oil DOWN TO 75.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 77.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING A

STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.79 PTS OR 0.18%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 61.17 PTS OR 0.31%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 121.14 OR 0.31%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.3289 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3558// Oil DOWN TO 78.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING A

WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4566 CONTRACTS TO 586,555 DESPITE OUR LOSS  IN PRICE OF $1.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH OUR PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD AS WE HAD ALSO, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, A GOOD NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3030) . THE CME ANNOUNCED, MUCH TO MY HORROR AGAIN A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS THURSDAY NIGHT// FRIDAY MORNING FOR 50000 OZ. OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD.

THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7596 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED TRADING /RAID AS THEY ABSORBED EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK WITH OUR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING LAST WEEK’S COMEX SESSIONS WHERE WE FINISHED WITH OUR 5 CONSECUTIVE HUGE 30,000+ ISSUANCES. TODAY THEY ISSUED STRONG 3515 CONTRACT ANNOUNCEMENT (THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING).

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST FRIDAY’S 197 , 199, 2001,   202, 203 , 204 ,205  AND 206 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP CAME INTO OFFICE MONDAY NOON. TRUMP IS PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THEN THIS WEEK, IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD. AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMPING SESSION TODAY.

WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A GOOD SIZED 3030 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /FEB  3030 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3030 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7596 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3030 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4566 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.00 THURSDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 3030 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S OVER A WEEK AGO, THE FED WAS EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. A SMALL RAID WAS BEING ATTEMPTED WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING AS THE GOLD PRICE LOWERED A BIT. AS YOU CAN SEE TODAY IT HAS NO EFFECT ON GOLD AS IT SHOT UP AGAIN QUITE NICELY.

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WAS EVIDENT IN JAN 6 COMEX TRADING//RAID AND THEN AGAIN WITH LAST TUESDAY’S FAILED ATTEMPT AT A RAID ON GOLD PRICE. HOWEVER NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER MONSTER 39,913 T.A.S CONTRACTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE. ALL OF THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WERE USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO THWART GOLD TRADING ESPECIALLY BEFORE TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE FED MUST REDUCE ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT OF 82 TONNES. THEY FAILED MISERABLY AS GOLD SKYROCKETED IN PRICE THIS WEEK AND NOW TO ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS IN USA DOLLAR TERMS AND OTHER CURRENCIES.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JAN (77.208 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR  NON ACTIVE JAN DELIVERY MONTH AND I BELIEVE THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR A JANUARY.

JANUARY: 65.85 TONNES

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES  EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $1.00)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY AS THEY WERE TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S RISE AND HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES BUT TO NO AVAIL AS GOLD REBOUNDED FROM ITS EARLIER LOSSES.

THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.

49 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 14.6836 TONNES. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.

WE NOW BEGIN OUR NEW MONTH OF JANUARY AND LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED THEIR FIRST ISSUANCE A MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR OUR TWO EARLY JANUARY EX FOR RISK: 5.7533 TONNES. THEN MERCILESSLY THEY CONSUMMATED FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS MONTH 85 EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (JAN 17) FOR 8500 OZ OR .2649 TONNES OF GOLD. THEN TO MY HORROR THEY ISSUED THEIR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS MONTH (JAN 22) FOR A MONSTER 5000 CONTRACTS OR 5,000,000 OZ.(15.562 TONNES).NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED THEIR FIFTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST NIGHT FOR 500 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 50,,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. REMEMBER THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON WHICH IS TOTALLY ASININE!! THUS FOR THE 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED THIS MONTH TOTALS 23.134 TONNES OF GOLD.

WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG TOTAL OF 23.63 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (10.133TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 1528 CONTRACTS OR 152,800 OZ (4.752TONNES) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD THIS MONTH’S 23.134 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE

NEW TOTALS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 23.134 TONNES THIS IS ,OF COURSE, AGAINST ALL RULES OF THE COMEX FORMULATED AT ITS CONCEPTION IN 1974 AS IT IS TOTALLY INSANE FOR A BUYER TO ASSUME RISK OF DELIVERY.

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $1.00

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7596 CONTRACTS OR 759,600 OZ (23.63 TONNES)

confirmed volume THURSDAY 262,357 contracts: strong ////nobody wishes to play with the crooks

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz




16,075.000 OZ
Brinks

500 kilobars































































































































 




















   






 







 




.

 









 













 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz




i) Into Brinks dealer: 11,447.907 oz

.3560 TONNES


























 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
i) Into Brinks Customer account: 617,813.616 oz (19,216 KILOBARS)
ii) Into Brinks enhanced account 154,761.671 oz
(387 London good delivery bars of 400 oz each)
iii) Into Loomis; 32151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)

total weight deposit: customer acct

1,061,934.291 oz or 33.03 tonnes

total weight dealer and customer: 33.386 tonnes





No of oz served (contracts) today1103 notice(s)
110,300 OZ
3.4307 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices) 640 contracts 
  640 OZ
1.99 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month16,745 notices
1,674,500 oz
52.083 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

dealer deposits: 1

i) Into Brinks dealer: 11,447.907 oz

.3560 TONNES

total dealer 11,447.908 oz

we have 3 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks Customer account: 617,813.616 oz (19,216 KILOBARS)
ii) Into Brinks enhanced account 154,761.671 oz
(387 London good delivery bars of 400 oz each)
iii) Into Loomis; 32151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)

total weight deposit: customer acct

1,061,934.291 oz or 33.03 tonnes

total weight dealer and customer: 33.386 tonnes

withdrawals: 0

adjustments:2/customer to dealer

i) Out of Malca 80,345.349 oz (2499 kilobars
ii) Out of JPMorgan 32,215.302oz(1003 kilobars)



total customer to dealer: 196,624.390 oz or 6 tonnes

thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.

For the front month of JAN: we have an oi of 1743 contracts having LOST 142 contracts. We had a strong 1766 contract issuance on THURSDAY. Thus ANOTHER MEGA HUGE QUEUE JUMP (GAIN) of 1624 contracts on our two exchanges. (162400 oz or 5.05tonnes). THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH LONDON VAULTS DRAMATICALLY RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SUPPLY THEM AND THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMPSURPASSING A FEW YEARS AGO WHEREE DID HAVE A MEGA 5.0 + TONNE QUEUE JUMP!!

FEBRUARY LOST 21,453 CONTRACTS TO 244,887 AS IT BEGINS ITS COUNTDOWN BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE (JAN 31.2025) EXPECT A MEGA WOPPER OF A FEB DELIVERY MONTH AS THE FRONT MONTH HAS NOT BEEN DECLINING MUCH. WE HAVE ONLY 5 MORE DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE NEXT FRIDAY, JAN 31.

MARCH HAD A GAIN OF 221 CONTRACTS UP TO 6859

APRIL HAD A GAIN OF 24,451 CONTRACTS UP TO 249,182 CONTRACTS

We had 1103 contracts filed for today representing 110,300 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1103 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:  No of notices filed so far (16,745 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (1743 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1103 x 100 oz) which equals  1,738,500 oz (65.074 TONNES) + 23.134 TONNES = 77.208 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.: 77.208TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR AND I BELIEVE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A JANUARY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,081,814.011  oz 64.753 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 28,072,479.927 OZ  

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,003,508.358 OZ  

JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.511 million oz

END

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory





















nil









































































































































































































nil












































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory








nil
















 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory



































































































 












































 

i) Into Ashai: 611,202.500 oz
ii) Into Brinks 1,230,508.810 oz
iii) Into Delaware 5031.6190 0z
iv) JPMorgan 1147,332.200 oz
v) Into Loomis: 1929,132.02 oz

total 4,923,208.149 oz












 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)9 contracts 
(0.045 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2108 Contracts
 (10.540 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  1 dealer  deposit/

420,907.700 oz Brinks dealer

total dealer deposit : 420,907.700 oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

deposits:5


i) Into Ashai: 611,202.500 oz
ii) Into Brinks 1,230,508.810 oz
iii) Into Delaware 5031.6190 0z
iv) JPMorgan 1147,332.200 oz
v) Into Loomis: 1929,132.02 oz

total 4,923,208.149 oz 153.13 tonnes

WITHDRAWALS 0



total withdrawal nil oz



ADJUSTMENT one //dealer to customer Manfra

1/ customer to dealer: Manfra 363,483.465 oz

ii) customer to dealer: Asahi: 599,744.700 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.590million oz/346.838million  or 38.,14%

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN /2024 OI: 11 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 43 CONTRACT(S).

WE HAD A 44 CONTRACT ISSUANCE ON THURSDAY. THUS WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT, THAT IS WE HAD A SMALL 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ

FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN 0F 91 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1511

MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 1154 CONTRACTS UP TO 120,972. THE FRONT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH ALSO IS NOT DECLINGING MUCH AND WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A HUMDINGER OF A DELIVERY MONTH FOR MARCH.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for 10,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 73,003 fair//

 New total standing: 10.585 million oz.

There are 73.487 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

JAN 24  WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

 JAN 23  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.36 TONNES

 JAN 22  WITH GOLD UP $15.15 ON THE DAY; MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.66 TONNES

 JAN 20  WITH GOLD UP $35.30 ON THE DAY; MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 10.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.12 TONNES

/JAN 17  WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.78 TONNES

JAN 16  WITH GOLD UP $24.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 15  WITH GOLD UP $24.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 14  WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.53 TONNES

 JAN 13  WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES

JAN 10  WITH GOLD UP $17.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES 

 JAN 9  WITH GOLD UP $13.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES

JAN 8  WITH GOLD UP $5.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES

JAN 7  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 6  WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 3  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

JAN 2  WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

 DEC  31  WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

DEC  30  WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES

DEC  27  WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES

DEC  26  WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES

DEC  24  WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES

 DEC  23  WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES

DEC  20  WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES

 DEC  19  WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

DEC  18  WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  17  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES

DEC  16  WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES

 DEC  13  WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES

DEC  12  WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES

 DEC  11  WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES

 DEC  9  WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

JAN 24  WITH SILVER DOWN $.21 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.395 MILLION OZ

JAN 23  WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.738 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.035 MILLION OZ

JAN 22  WITH SILVER UP $.08 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.043 MILLION OZ

JAN 20  WITH SILVER DOWN $.09 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.315 MILLION OZ

JAN 17  WITH SILVER DOWN $.49 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.315 MILLION OZ

JAN 16  WITH SILVER UP $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ

JAN 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.79 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.745 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ

JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.228 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.218 MILLION OZ

JAN 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.637 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.990 MILLION OZ

JAN 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ

JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ

 JAN 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

 JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ

JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ

DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ

DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ

 DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ

 DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ

DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ

DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ

DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ

DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ

DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ

DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ

DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ

DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ

DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

Will Comex gold face import tariffs?

Rumours that Trump will introduce 10% tariffs on precious metals are said to be driving gold higher. This report gives a more likely explanation.

Alasdair MacleodJan 24∙Paid
 
READ IN APP
 

For the last two weeks before and after President Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, gold has recovered to almost new highs in dollars. In European trade this morning, gold was trading at $2774, up $73 on the week and silver was $30.85, up 53 cents for a gold/silver ratio of nearly 90 times. Comex volumes were generally healthy, with the exception of high volumes on Tuesday following Monday’s closure for Inauguration Day.

Comex Open Interest in gold has increased sharply towards overbought levels, while silver’s OI has only just begun to reflect more buying as shown in our next two charts respectively.

It is worth showing these charts together to demonstrate how gold’s OI has soared, while silver’s increase has been more subdued. The question which we need to address is what has been driving gold and not silver.

The story coming out of the London market is that US futures’ demand reflects fears that Trump will extend general import tariffs of 10% to precious metals, hitting gold. Silver is thought to escape tariffs because it is in supply deficit for the US. This might explain why gold has soared while silver has not. Furthermore, significant and fluctuating premiums have risen on Comex gold contract values over London spot, leading to a physical arbitrage whereby gold has been air-freighted out of London to New York through the exchange-for-physical facility (EFP).

There is bound to be something in this factor as traders respond to possibilities. But perhaps it’s little more than a conventional explanation for the increase in effective lease rates through the EFP channel. But rumours are rumours, not facts. Is there another explanation?

We cannot ignore the massive increase in Comex gold stands-for-delivery, and to a lesser extent silver. As of last night, a total of 43.5 tonnes had stood for delivery in January’s 15 trading sessions so far. That’s an annualised rate of 725 tonnes, an enormous quantity, about 20% of annual world mining output. For silver, it’s 175.4 tonnes so far, significant but not so great in terms of global supply. While not dismissing rumours of tariffs on gold imports entirely, the increasing use of Comex futures contracts as a means of obtaining physical suggests a valid alternative explanation.

Bearing in mind the leverage of futures over physical, at some point the drainage of physical liquidity backing short positions is bound to have an impact, creating an urgent need for replacement bullion. Hence the panic raids through EFPs on London’s liquidity, driving up effective lease rates. The drive in gold lease rates on Comex spiking to over 10% is reminiscent of a different context — the scramble of liquidity in September 2019, when repo rates soared, and the Fed had to intervene providing liquidity to a distressed banking system.

At its root the current situation in gold futures has similarities to that repo crisis, being a lack of physical liquidity to back highly leveraged derivative positions. Nearly all the world’s newly refined gold is pre-ordered by very large buyers, leaving the rest of us scrambling for what remains. It drives buyers into buying futures with the express objective of taking delivery. It results in growing strains in the market, leading potentially to counterparty failures.

To illustrate this point, the next chart shows the estimated monetary position of Comex Swaps today.

Note how gross and net shorts are at record levels ($82.7bn and $74.4bn respectively). It is a very uncomfortable squeeze on the establishment, with the prospect of intensifying even more.

END

* * *

ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST MUST VIEW…YOUTUBE/KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT 207

end

Egg Prices Catapult Into ‘Blue-Sky Breakout’ As Bird Flu Sparks Worsening Shortage

Thursday, Jan 23, 2025 – 09:20 PM

An ongoing and devastating avian influenza outbreak has severely dented the nation’s egg-producing hen population, driving wholesale prices into record-high territory and far surpassing the price explosion seen a few years ago when the bird flu first emerged. This is an alarming trend, and egg prices at the supermarket will likely rise further in the weeks and months ahead.

The latest wholesale data from Urner Barry shows that the price for a dozen eggs has jumped to a record high of $5.4, exceeding the previous peak of $4.65 set in December 2022. Rising wholesale prices are expected to continue pressuring supermarket prices higher.

According to the USDA’s bird flu dashboard, 15.5 million birds across the Lower 48 have been infected by avian influenza over the last 30 days.

About 20 million egg-laying hens died in the fourth quarter of 2024 because of the escalating health crisis, denting the nation’s egg-laying population. 

“Unlike in past years, in 2024, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types,” USDA wrote in a report earlier this month. 

The end result is this: 

Readers may want to consider building or purchasing chicken coops to secure their own egg supply, as shortages are expected to persist. Additionally, a growing trend among some Americans involves sourcing clean food from mom-and-pop farms or utilizing their own land for food production. It may be time for folks to shift away from toxic food supply chains controlled by mega-corporations. 

END 

end

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.46 OR 0.70%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 365.63 PTS OR 1.86%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 26.89 OR 0.07%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .36%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2467 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2511// Oil DOWN TO 75.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 77.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING A

STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.2467

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2511

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 22.46 PTS OR 0.70%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 365.63 PTS OR 1.86%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 26.89 OR 0.07%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  107.48 EURO RISES TO 1.0476 UP 1 BASIS PT HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.226 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.31…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR DOWN this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5536 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.676 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.195

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.437

3j Gold at $2781.00 /Silver at: 30.91  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 77/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 98.09

3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and  78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.31  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.209% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9066 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9498 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.645 UP 0 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.871. UP 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.281 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.69…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7150 UP 2 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.347 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.051 DOWN 1 PTS.

Futures Dip To Close Best Inauguration Week For S&P Since Reagan

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 08:13 AM

US equity futures are slightly lower to close out a blowout week for risk assets. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down 0.1% after the index reached its new ATH on Thursday, the first of the year; Nasdaq futures are unchanged with megacap tech flat this morning (TSLA +57bp) while Russell futs are also down 0.1%. European flash PMIs were mixed with mfg beats for UK/France/Germany/EZ while services were mixed: FTSE -35bps, CAC +95bps, DAX +30bps, Nikkei -7bps, Hang Seng +1.86%, Shanghai +70bps. Trump overnight hinted at a softer approach toward tariffs telling Fox News he’d rather not impose them on China which sent the yuan and Chinese stocks higher.  Bond yields are flat around 4.64%, and the USD is modestly lower on the back of EUR strength. Commodities are mixed; precious metals; Ags are mostly lower, while WTI is up 30bps at $74.85; Bitcoin is up 2% to $105,300 after Trump unveiled his much anticipated executive order. Overnight, BOJ hiked 25bp as expected with an on the margin hawkish surprise as no downgrades to economic outlook and inflation outlook was revised higher. However, after initially sliding, the USDJPY has since rebounded and is flat. Today, the key focus will be global PMIs and earnings, with AXP and VZ being the most important ones to provide further color on consumer demand and economic growth. Wall Street estimates PMI-Mfg and PMI-Srvcs to print at 49.8 and 56.5, respectively; we also get the U of Mich (10am), Existing Home Sales (10am), and Kanas City Fed Services (11am).

In premarket trading, Texas Instruments fell 4% after the chipmaker gave a disappointing earnings forecast due to sluggish demand and higher manufacturing costs. Despite the disappointing results, Mag7 stocks were modestly higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.1%, Apple (AAPL) +0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) flat, Meta Platforms (META) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.3% and Tesla (TSLA) +0.8%. NVO is up 10% after an experimental shot delivered as much as 22% weight loss in an early-stage trial. Boeing slips 1.6% after the planemaker suffered another quarter of fresh charges and losses, highlighting the long road ahead for Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg as he tries to stabilize the US aircraft manufacturer.; VZ +3% on rev/eps beat; Burberry (BRBY LN) +12.5% on better comp sales (could help luxury retail sentiment). Here are some other notable pre-market movers:

  • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) rise 4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the asset-management unit of Liberty Mutual will provide $750 million in funding to the buy-now-pay-later company.
  • American Express (AXP) falls 3% after posting quarterly results.
  • CSX (CSX) declines 3% after the railroad’s earnings missed estimates.
  • Grindr (GRND) jumps 7% after the dating company boosted its forecast for revenue growth for 2024.
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) slips 2% after the robotic-surgery company gave a profit margin forecast for the year that trailed expectations and warned that the potential impact of new tariffs could be material.
  • Middleby (MIDD) climbs 6% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Garden Investments has built an activist position in kitchen-equipment maker, citing people familiar with the matter.
  • Twilio (TWLO) surges 16% after the software company reported preliminary fourth-quarter revenue growth that topped estimates. The company also authorized a $2 billion share buyback plan.

Global stocks are closing the week at record highs after President Trump appeared to soften his approach toward tariffs on China. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said that he would “rather not” use tariffs against the world’s second-largest economy (which he has said before and he will flipflop again, but algos as usual took this as gospel and hammered the USD). He has also, so far, held back from imposing tariffs on Europe, though he warned of levies against Canada and Mexico. Signs that Trump is open to negotiation has helped lift assets around the world under the shadow of a trade war, from stocks to currencies. Emerging-markets currencies are on course for their best week since July 2023. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index is on track for a fifth weekly advance after hitting a record. The dollar dropped to a one-month low as investors switched to higher-yielding assets.

As for the the, the S&P 500 is up 2% this week so far, and is poised for the best start for a new president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.

“It is early days but nothing that President Donald Trump has said or done has caused a bad reaction in financial markets,” said Chris Iggo, chief investment officer of core investments at AXA Investment Managers. “Quite the contrary. It is paying to stay invested.”

And anyone who is surprised by this outcome is an idiot: Trump has long declared that the stock market is the best, if not only, barometer by which his performance is to be measured. As such, he will redline the market – telling OPEC to cut oil prices and telling Powell to cut rates – until something breaks. For now, the upbeat data, including signs that inflation is easing, is helping both bonds and stocks, according to Goldman Sachs strategist Lilia Peytavin.

“This is adding to the positive earnings we’ve got so far,” she said.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 added 0.4% as it rose for the eighth consecutive session, benefiting as Asian shares did from hopes US President Trump could take a softer-than-feared stance on tariffs. Sentiment was boosted as traders pared bets on how fast the ECB will lower interest rates this year after the euro area’s private sector returned to growth in January, surprising analysts, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 50.2. Burberry Group Plc jumped after the maker of upmarket trench coats reported better-than-expected sales. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA shares slumped after the Italian lender launched a takeover bid for Mediobanca SpA, whose shares rose.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities climbed to a one-month high, with sentiment buoyed by Trump’s comment that he would rather not have to use tariffs against China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1% to the highest since Dec. 18. The gauge has advanced 2.5% this week to head for its biggest weekly increase since September. Technology shares including Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi contributed the most to the gains on Friday. Trump’s reluctance to impose tariffs on Chinese goods sparked a risk-on tone, which helped make shares in Hong Kong and China the region’s best performers. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rallied 2.1%, while the CSI 300 Index jumped 0.8%. “Trump’s Lunar New Year gift to China is a sign that negotiations may be progressing well,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “However, it remains hard to imagine that China will be let go of some hard concessions even if a deal is reached.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.5%. The yen pared most of its earlier advance seen after the Bank of Japan delivered a widely expected interest rate hike that was accompanied by higher inflation forecasts. The euro climbs 0.7% and made a brief appearance above $1.05 as traders pared bets on how fast the ECB will lower interest rates this year after the euro area’s private sector returned to growth in January, surprising analysts, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 50.2.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer led by short maturities, extending Thursday’s pronounced steepening of 2s10s curve, after US President Trump appeared to soften his approach toward tariffs on China; 10-year treasuries are little changed at around 4.64%, is near top of its 4.528%-4.662% weekly range; 2-year TSY yields are 1.5bp richer on the day, steepening 2s10s curve by about a basis point following Thursday’s 4.1bp increase in the spread. In Europe bunds and gilts underperforming by 3bp in the sector after the euro-zone composite PMI beat estimate, lifting German front-end yields.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to $74.90 a barrel. Spot gold climbs $18 to $2,773/oz. Bitcoin rises 2% above $105,000.

On today’s economic calendar we have the January preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am), January final University of Michigan sentiment and December existing home sales (10am) and January Kansas City Fed services index (11am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,148.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 531.95
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 182.94
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 575.21
  • Nikkei little changed at 39,931.98
  • Topix little changed at 2,751.04
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 20,066.19
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,252.63
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 76,139.22
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 8,408.87
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,536.80
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.57%
  • Euro up 0.8% to $1.0503
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $78.53/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,774.38
  • US Dollar Index down 0.63% to 107.37

Top Overnight News

  • The US House Republican committee chairs pitched in a private meeting what could add up to between USD 2.5-3 trillion of spending cuts and budget savings to fund Republicans’ reconciliation package, according to Punchbowl News. The Energy and Commerce Committee is eyeing up to USD 2tln of cuts, including per capita caps for Medicaid. Energy-related cuts, such as rolling back tailpipe rules and fuel efficiency benchmarks for cars and light trucks, known as CAFE standards, were also part of the committee’s pitch. The Education and Workforce panel believes it has up to USD 500bln in cuts, largely through targeting student loans. The House Agriculture Committee is targeting between USD 100bln and USD 250bln in cuts. Some would impact SNAP, aka food stamps. The Transportation and Infrastructure panel’s up to USD 26bln in savings would include raising tonnage duties for ships, and electric vehicles fees that would go into the Highway Trust Fund. Ultimately, each and every cut will have to get approved by every Republican member in the House – any GOP member could kill the bill, at least until early April.
  • Trump reiterated that he will impose “massive” tariffs on Russia and “big” sanctions if it doesn’t settle the war in Ukraine. Trump also said he’s had “good, friendly” talks with Xi Jinping. BBG
  • China’s new rules for mutual funds and major insurers should inject at least 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) into its ailing stock market this year. The most bullish estimates expect ~13 trillion Yuan over the next 3 years.
  • The Bank of Japan raised interest rates on Friday to their highest since the 2008 global financial crisis and revised up its inflation forecasts, underscoring its confidence that rising wages will keep inflation stable around its 2% target. RTRS
  • Governor Kazuo Ueda voiced optimism about spring wage talks and market stability in the wake of Trump’s various comments, though cautioned that uncertainty over tariffs remains high. Japan’s key inflation gauge jumped to a 16-month high of 3% in December on higher energy costs. BBG
  • The euro climbed as PMI data showed the region’s private sector unexpectedly grew in January. Eurozone flash PMIs for Jan saw strength thanks to upside in manufacturing (46.1 vs. 45.1 in Dec) while services ticked down modestly (51.4 vs. 51.6 in Dec) (one source of concern was a sharp jump in inflation metrics). BBG, S&P
  • The ECB rates outlook got less clear, a survey of economists showed. Almost all still expect 25-bp cuts next week and in March, but from April views start to diverge, leaving year-end forecasts between 1.25% and 2.5%. BBG
  • The US Treasury said it’s expanding its use of special accounting measures to avert breaching the federal debt limit, which kicked back in earlier this month. BBG
  • The Fed should cut rates to ease price pressures on Americans, Trump said, adding that he plans to have a talk with Jerome Powell “at the right time.” BBG
  • NVO +10% in the premarket. Novo shares jumped after an experimental shot delivered as much as 22% weight loss in an early-stage trial. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the continued gains on Wall St and constructive comments from US President Trump related to China tariffs but with the upside capped as the attention turned to the BoJ which delivered a widely expected rate hike. ASX 200 edged mild gains with sentiment helped by the encouraging tariff-related rhetoric by Trump on China. Nikkei 225 initially extended above the 40,000 level but then pared its advances after the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50% and raised its Core CPI forecasts across the board which disappointed those that were hoping for an overtly dovish hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were encouraged by the pre-taped comments from US President Trump that conversations with Chinese President Xi went fine and that he would rather not have to use tariffs over China, although risk sentiment in the mainland was somewhat tempered after the PBoC’s MLF operation resulted in a CNY 795bln drain.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC conducted a CNY 200bln 1-year MLF operation and left the rate unchanged at 2.00% for a CNY 795bln drain.
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the width of the policy band and level where it is centred unchanged but announced to reduce the slope of SGD NEER policy band, while it stated the measured adjustment is consistent with a modest and gradual appreciation path for the SGD NEER policy band, aiming to ensure medium-term price stability.

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.3%) began the session almost entirely in the green and continued to gradually extend higher as the morning progressed. A slew of PMI metrics from within the EZ had little impact on the complex. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, with the gainers for the day generally attributed to comments via US President Trump overnight; he noted that that talks with Chinese President Xi went fine and added that he would rather not have to use tariffs over China in a pre-taped interview with Fox News. Basic Resources, Autos and Consumer Products all lead; the latter also benefiting from post-earning strength in Burberry (+15%). Telecoms is the underperformer today, stemming from particular post-earning weakness in Ericsson (-7.9%); the co. reported weak Q4 results and highlighted particular weakness in India. Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) has completed the phase 1B/2A trial with subcutaneous Amycretin in people with overweight or obesity. People treated with Amycretin achieved an estimated body weight loss of 9.7% on 1.25mg over the course of 20 weeks, 16.2% on 5mg over 28 weeks and 22% on 20mg over 36 weeks.

Top European News

  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says will continue to sail around Africa vis Cape of Good Hope until safe passage through Red Sea/Gulf of Aden is ensured for longer term.
  • ECB’s Lagarde says she has confidence that inflation will continue to slow.
  • German Government forecasts 0.3% Economic Growth in 2025, revised down from 1.1%, via Handelsblatt

FX

  • Hefty losses in the DXY in a continuation of the price action seen yesterday and overnight after US President Trump suggested a preference of not using tariffs on China, while the greenback was also not helped by Trump’s recent calls for lower interest rates during his address to the WEF. Further losses were seen following the EZ PMI metrics (detailed in EUR section). DXY fell from a 108.19 high to a low of 107.27 at the time of writing, dipping under its 50 DMA (107.63) with the next level to the downside the low from 18th December 2024 (106.82).
  • EUR is firmer on the back of the aforementioned dollar softness, sanguine Trump tariff rhetoric on China, and with mostly constructive EZ PMI data. To recap, French services missed forecasts and dipped from the prior, in turn dragging down the pan-EZ services metrics. Aside from that, other French metrics beat while all German figures topped forecasts. The EZ-wide figures saw stronger Manufacturing/Composite figures whilst the Services metric was a little lower. EUR/USD rose from a 1.0410 intraday low to test and eventually breach 1.0500 to the upside, rising above its 50 DMA at 1.0431.
  • A choppy session for the JPY with the BoJ in focus overnight and in the European morning. The BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, via an 8-1 vote split. Furthermore, the Outlook Report projections were somewhat varied as Core CPI forecasts were lifted across the entire horizon period, while the Real GDP projection was cut for Fiscal 2024 but maintained for the subsequent years after. USD/JPY sits around the middle of a 154.83-156.37 range, back around 155.50, after briefly dipping under its 50 DMA (154.94).
  • GBP was supported by the aforementioned weak dollar and boosted by above-forecast UK flash PMIs. GBP/USD resides closer to the top of a 1.2345-1.2447 range as it eyes the 8th January high (1.2494).
  • Firmer cross antipodeans amid the softer dollar and after US President Trump suggested a preference of not using tariffs on China.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1705 vs exp. 7.2779 (prev. 7.1708).

Fixed Income

  • JGBs came under modest pressure on the BoJ announcement which saw a hike, 8-1 vote split, and upgrades to the inflation forecasts. Thereafter, a more pronounced move was seen at Governor Ueda’s press conference with his initial remarks around the spring wage talks weighing on JGBs which slipped from 140.72 to 140.61 over the course of six minutes. Following this, JGBs lifted from 140.62 to 140.78, echoing the upward move in USD/JPY, as Ueda said they have no preset idea on future adjustments.
  • USTs are moving in tandem with JGBs, Bunds and Gilts thus far. However, USTs remain just about in the green at the low end of a 108-09+ to 108-19+ band. US Flash PMIs due later.
  • For Bunds, initial action modestly influenced by JGBs. Thereafter, no move on the French Flash PMIs (beats, ex-Services). Thereafter, the German figures printed firmer than forecast with Composite surprisingly returning to expansionary territory. A print that weighed on Bunds to the tune of 20 ticks with the contract slipping further to a 131.29 low just before the pan-EZ figure. Thereafter, the UK numbers (see below) added to this and a 131.12 trough printed.
  • Gilts followed the above into their own data releases, however Gilts were initially outperforming after gapping higher by a handful of ticks and thereafter hit a 92.25 session high. Thereafter, the session’s main move came on the Flash PMI release for January which beat across the board and weighed on Gilts by 20 ticks in an immediate move, taking it below 92.00 and thereafter extended further to a 91.55 session low.

Commodities

  • Crude holds a modest upward bias on Friday with prices still taking a breather following the declines yesterday owing to comments from US President Trump who told the WEF in Davos that he will be asking Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. Brent Mar sits in a USD 77.60-78.61/bbl range.
  • Precious metals are bolstered by the weaker dollar as the Trump tariffs trade partially unwound following conciliatory commentary from US President Trump on China, whilst Trump also said that he will demand that US interest rates drop immediately. On China, US President Trump said the conversation with Chinese President Xi went fine and responded he can when asked if he can make a deal with China, while he added would rather not have to use tariffs over China in a pre-taped interview with Fox News.
  • Firmer trade across base metals on the back of the weaker dollar coupled with US President Trump’s constructive remarks on China. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,216.50-9,362.00/t range.
  • UBS says risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the short term. Oil demand should grow in line with long term growth rate of 1.2MBPD, with oil market almost balanced this year. Remain long gold in global strategy with target of USD 2,850/oz by the year end.
  • Russian Kremlin (on the prospect of lower oil prices helping to end the war in Ukraine) says the essence of conflict for Russia is based on national security, not oil.
  • Ukraine Military says drones struck a Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery and other oil facilities in an overnight attack.
  • China crude steel output+11.8% Y/Y to 75.0mln tonnes in December 2024; Global crude steel +5.6% Y/Y.

BOJ

  • BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter, while it reiterated it will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts and it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. BoJ said real interest rates are at very low levels and inflation expectations have risen moderately, as well as noted the chance of Japan’s economy moving in line with the forecast is heightening and that many firms are saying they will offer solid pay hikes in this spring’s wage talks.
  • Dissenter Nakamura said the BoJ should decide on changing the guideline for money market operations after confirming a rise in firms’ earnings power from sources, and after checking sources such as financial statements and statistics of corporations at the next monetary policy meeting.
  • Furthermore, the Outlook Report projections were somewhat varied as Core CPI forecasts were lifted across the entire horizon period, while the Real GDP projection was cut for Fiscal 2024 but maintained for the subsequent years after.

Ueda presser

  • No preset idea on future adjustments. No preconceived ideas around the scope/timing of the next rate rise. Next rate hike will depend less on economic growth but more on price moves.
  • Board has judged that spring wage talks will result in strong hikes again this year. Growing number of firms expressed intentions to continue increasing wages steadily. Growing number of firms factoring in plans to raise wages, in view of the medium-term projection.
  • Financial markets have been stable as a whole. Markets have been calm post-Trump

Geopolitics: China

  • US President Trump said the conversation with China’s Xi went fine and responded he can when asked if he can make a deal with China, while he added he would rather not have to use tariffs over China, via a pre-taped interview with Fox News.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Palestinian TV reported large Israeli forces stormed the city of Tulkarm in the West Bank accompanied by military bulldozers, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Trump administration officials told Israeli officials that he does not intend to start his term with a new war in the Middle East and wants to reach a very strict agreement to prevent Iran from reaching a nuclear weapon, while Trump believes that the Iranians will rush to the negotiating table under his leadership, according to Channel 12.
  • UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 86NM northeast of Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia in which a vessel was approached by a small military craft which kept hailing the vessel to turn to port towards Iranian territorial waters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia’s Kremlin says President Putin has made clear he wants to restart Nuclear arms cuts talks as soon as possible.
  • Russia’s Security Council Secretary Shoigu said risk of an armed clash between nuclear powers is growing and accused NATO of increasing activities on the eastern flank of Russia and Belarus and of rehearsing offensive operations there, according to TASS.
  • Moscow’s Mayor announced that air defence units southeast of Moscow repel attacks by drones headed for the capital, while the Governor of Russia’s Ryazan region southeast of Moscow announced that emergency services were responding to an air attack.

Geopolitics: Other

  • US Secretary of State Rubio reinforced US commitment to NATO in a call with the NATO Secretary General and discussed the importance of “real burden sharing”, as well as the importance of ending Russia’s war in Ukraine and the need for a peaceful solution.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 56.5, prior 56.8
  • 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.8, prior 49.4
  • 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 55.6, prior 55.4
  • 10:00: Jan. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 73.2, prior 73.2
    • U. of Mich. Expectations, prior 70.2
    • U. of Mich. Current Conditions, prior 77.9
    • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.2%, prior 3.3%
    • U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.2%, prior 3.3%
  • 10:00: Dec. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 4.8%
  • 10:00: Dec. Home Resales with Condos, est. 4.2m, prior 4.15m
  • 11:00: Jan. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

as was widely expected the BoJ have raised rates by 25bps this morning to 0.5%, the first since July when their unexpected hike seemed to kick start a huge but brief global sell-off. This follows CPI ex fresh food coming in at 3%, also inline with expectation but the first time since August 2023 that this measure had hit 3%. All other measures were inline. The BoJ have upgraded their inflation forecasts with the hike which is a bit hawkish but have also cited many uncertainties concerning the outlook. Much will depend on where the emphasis is in Ueda’s press conference that starts just before this will hit inboxes.

The Yen has rallied around half a percentage point since the decision which may reflect a couple of big trades rather than any market surprises especially as the Nikkei is trading pretty flat. 10yr JGBs are up +2.7bps as I type though.

Elsewhere in Asia Chinese equities are rallying overnight as Mr Trump has said in an interview with Fox News that the US has great power over China with regards to tariffs but that he would rather not have to use them. Clearly these are off the cuff remarks but it has left the overnight market feeling like there’s a scenario where China escapes the worst of the tariff regime. I suspect there’s plenty more time for a more aggressive approach but for now the Hang Seng is +2.21% and the Shanghai Comp +0.64%. Elsewhere the KOSPI is +0.71%. US equity futures are down around a tenth of a percent.

Ahead of all that, US and European markets put in a decent performance yesterday, with both the S&P 500 (+0.53%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.44%) advancing to record highs for the first time this year. Markets had initially been fairly quiet, with investors in a holding pattern before the Fed and ECB decisions next week, as well as earnings from 5 of the Magnificent 7. But there were then some larger moves in the US session after remarks from President Trump, who triggered a noticeable decline in oil prices after saying he’d “ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil”. Brent immediately fell more than -1.5% intra-day from being up for the day. It closed -1.44% lower in the session at $77.86/bbl, which marked a 6th consecutive decline to its lowest level since the US announced a package of sanctions against Russian oil on January 10. And in turn, that helped equities move higher, as the prospect of lower inflation cemented the view that the Fed would still cut rates this year. Just over a week ago we were at around 5-month highs so this fall (-5.7% from the intra-day peaks last Wednesday) has helped markets over the last week.

Trump was speaking virtually before the World Economic Forum’s meeting at Davos, where remarks covered a lot of ground. Aside from the oil comments, a big one from a market perspective was “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately”. The Fed independence angle got further attention after the US close, as Trump questioned the Fed Chair’s decision making on interest rates in comments to reporters, saying “I think I know interest rates much better than they do, and I think I know it certainly much better than the one who’s primarily in charge of making that decision” and adding that he planned to speak to the Fed Chair “at the right time”. Otherwise, Trump said he wanted to cut corporate taxes further, saying that “we’re going to bring it down from 21 to 15% if there’s a big if, if you make your product in the US”. And there were also critical remarks towards the EU, saying that “From the standpoint of America, the EU treats us very, very unfairly, very badly” and denouncing EU cases against US tech giants as “a form of taxation”.

With oil prices moving lower, that added some growing confidence that the Fed would be cutting rates this year. For instance, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting inched up +0.9bps on the day to 40bps. That saw 2yr Treasury yields fall also by -0.9bps on the day to 4.29%, having been on track to closer higher before Trump’s remarks. However, long-end yields weren’t affected as much, with the 10yr yield ticking up +3.3bps to 4.64%, which in turn led to the sharpest daily steeping of the 2s10s curve so far this year.

Aside from Trump’s remarks though, markets had been fairly subdued yesterday, with several factors restraining the advance. One was the US weekly jobless claims, where the continuing claims moved up to their highest level since November 2021, at 1.899m (vs. 1.866m expected). In addition, the initial jobless claims ticked up to a 6-week high of 223k (vs. 220k expected). While this created a bit of doubt about the state of the US labour market, the increases were predominantly driven by California, so likely reflecting the impact of the wildfires there.

Turning to equities, these saw a broad-based rise yesterday, with all 11 major sector groups in the S&P 500 moving higher. However, we did see a headwind from AI stocks, with semiconductors moving lower after SK Hynix’s results weren’t as stellar as some had hoped. On one level the results weren’t too bad, but given the hype around AI, the bar for a positive market reaction is so high that even beating expectations can lead to a pullback on the grounds that they didn’t beat by even more. In Europe , ASML (-4.38%) posted its biggest decline in two months, although over in the US a late rally helped Nvidia (+0.10%) recover after trading -2.3% down early on.
European markets generally saw a solid session yesterday, with both the STOXX 600 (+0.44%) and the DAX (+0.74%) moving up to all-time highs. For bonds, the German 10yr bund yield was only up +1.7bps on the day, a smaller increase than for US Treasuries, whilst the euro itself (+0.17%) ticked up slightly against the US Dollar. Increasingly in Europe, the focus is turning towards the ECB decision next week, who are widely expected to cut rates by 25bps. Ahead of that, our economists have put out a preview for Thursday’s meeting, where they stick to their view of 25bp cuts at each of the four Governing Council meetings in H1.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the January flash PMIs from the US and Europe, and in the US there’s also the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for January, and existing home sales for December. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lagarde and Cipollone.

DXY pressured by Trump remarks, EZ PMIs lift the EUR, BoJ hike as expected – Newsquawk US Market Open

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Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 06:20 AM

  • European bourses mostly firmer, whilst US futures tilt a little lower; Burberry +15% post-results.
  • DXY in the doldrums as Trump waters down tariff rhetoric and calls for lower interest rates.
  • USTs a little firmer, Bunds pressured by EZ PMIs and BoJ Governor Ueda spurs JGB action.
  • Base metals soar amid Trump’s China commentary and a weaker dollar.
  • BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter. Governor Ueda said the Board has judged that spring wage talks will result in strong hikes again this year. No preset idea on future adjustments. No preconceived ideas around the scope/timing of the next rate rise. Next rate hike will depend less on economic growth but more on price moves.
  • Looking ahead, US PMIs, Speakers include ECB’s Cipollone. Earnings from Verizon, American Express.

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BOJ

  • BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter, while it reiterated it will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts and it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. BoJ said real interest rates are at very low levels and inflation expectations have risen moderately, as well as noted the chance of Japan’s economy moving in line with the forecast is heightening and that many firms are saying they will offer solid pay hikes in this spring’s wage talks.
  • Dissenter Nakamura said the BoJ should decide on changing the guideline for money market operations after confirming a rise in firms’ earnings power from sources, and after checking sources such as financial statements and statistics of corporations at the next monetary policy meeting.
  • Furthermore, the Outlook Report projections were somewhat varied as Core CPI forecasts were lifted across the entire horizon period, while the Real GDP projection was cut for Fiscal 2024 but maintained for the subsequent years after.

UEDA

  • No preset idea on future adjustments. No preconceived ideas around the scope/timing of the next rate rise. Next rate hike will depend less on economic growth but more on price moves.
  • Board has judged that spring wage talks will result in strong hikes again this year. Growing number of firms expressed intentions to continue increasing wages steadily. Growing number of firms factoring in plans to raise wages, in view of the medium-term projection.
  • Financial markets have been stable as a whole. Markets have been calm post-Trump
  • Click for full details, reaction and analysis.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.3%) began the session almost entirely in the green and continued to gradually extend higher as the morning progressed. A slew of PMI metrics from within the EZ had little impact on the complex.
  • European sectors hold a slight positive bias, with the gainers for the day generally attributed to comments via US President Trump overnight; he noted that that talks with Chinese President Xi went fine and added that he would rather not have to use tariffs over China in a pre-taped interview with Fox News. Basic Resources, Autos and Consumer Products all lead; the latter also benefiting from post-earning strength in Burberry (+15%). Telecoms is the underperformer today, stemming from particular post-earning weakness in Ericsson (-7.9%); the co. reported weak Q4 results and highlighted particular weakness in India.
  • US equity futures are essentially flat/incrementally lower, ES & NQ -0.2%, in a slight paring to some of the upside seen in the prior session.
  • Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) has completed the phase 1B/2A trial with subcutaneous Amycretin in people with overweight or obesity. People treated with Amycretin achieved an estimated body weight loss of 9.7% on 1.25mg over the course of 20 weeks, 16.2% on 5mg over 28 weeks and 22% on 20mg over 36 weeks.
  • Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
  • Click for the additional news
  • Click for a detailed summary

FX

  • Hefty losses in the DXY in a continuation of the price action seen yesterday and overnight after US President Trump suggested a preference of not using tariffs on China, while the greenback was also not helped by Trump’s recent calls for lower interest rates during his address to the WEF. Further losses were seen following the EZ PMI metrics (detailed in EUR section). DXY fell from a 108.19 high to a low of 107.27 at the time of writing, dipping under its 50 DMA (107.63) with the next level to the downside the low from 18th December 2024 (106.82).
  • EUR is firmer on the back of the aforementioned dollar softness, sanguine Trump tariff rhetoric on China, and with mostly constructive EZ PMI data. To recap, French services missed forecasts and dipped from the prior, in turn dragging down the pan-EZ services metrics. Aside from that, other French metrics beat while all German figures topped forecasts. The EZ-wide figures saw stronger Manufacturing/Composite figures whilst the Services metric was a little lower. EUR/USD rose from a 1.0410 intraday low to test and eventually breach 1.0500 to the upside, rising above its 50 DMA at 1.0431.
  • A choppy session for the JPY with the BoJ in focus overnight and in the European morning. The BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, via an 8-1 vote split. Furthermore, the Outlook Report projections were somewhat varied as Core CPI forecasts were lifted across the entire horizon period, while the Real GDP projection was cut for Fiscal 2024 but maintained for the subsequent years after. USD/JPY sits around the middle of a 154.83-156.37 range, back around 155.50, after briefly dipping under its 50 DMA (154.94).
  • GBP was supported by the aforementioned weak dollar and boosted by above-forecast UK flash PMIs. GBP/USD resides closer to the top of a 1.2345-1.2447 range as it eyes the 8th January high (1.2494).
  • Firmer cross antipodeans amid the softer dollar and after US President Trump suggested a preference of not using tariffs on China.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1705 vs exp. 7.2779 (prev. 7.1708).
  • Click for a detailed summary
  • Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

  • JGBs came under modest pressure on the BoJ announcement which saw a hike, 8-1 vote split, and upgrades to the inflation forecasts. Thereafter, a more pronounced move was seen at Governor Ueda’s press conference with his initial remarks around the spring wage talks weighing on JGBs which slipped from 140.72 to 140.61 over the course of six minutes. Following this, JGBs lifted from 140.62 to 140.78, echoing the upward move in USD/JPY, as Ueda said they have no preset idea on future adjustments.
  • USTs are moving in tandem with JGBs, Bunds and Gilts thus far. However, USTs remain just about in the green at the low end of a 108-09+ to 108-19+ band. US Flash PMIs due later.
  • For Bunds, initial action modestly influenced by JGBs. Thereafter, no move on the French Flash PMIs (beats, ex-Services). Thereafter, the German figures printed firmer than forecast with Composite surprisingly returning to expansionary territory. A print that weighed on Bunds to the tune of 20 ticks with the contract slipping further to a 131.29 low just before the pan-EZ figure. Thereafter, the UK numbers (see below) added to this and a 131.12 trough printed.
  • Gilts followed the above into their own data releases, however Gilts were initially outperforming after gapping higher by a handful of ticks and thereafter hit a 92.25 session high. Thereafter, the session’s main move came on the Flash PMI release for January which beat across the board and weighed on Gilts by 20 ticks in an immediate move, taking it below 92.00 and thereafter extended further to a 91.55 session low.
  • Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

  • Crude holds a modest upward bias on Friday with prices still taking a breather following the declines yesterday owing to comments from US President Trump who told the WEF in Davos that he will be asking Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. Brent Mar sits in a USD 77.60-78.61/bbl range.
  • Precious metals are bolstered by the weaker dollar as the Trump tariffs trade partially unwound following conciliatory commentary from US President Trump on China, whilst Trump also said that he will demand that US interest rates drop immediately. On China, US President Trump said the conversation with Chinese President Xi went fine and responded he can when asked if he can make a deal with China, while he added would rather not have to use tariffs over China in a pre-taped interview with Fox News.
  • Firmer trade across base metals on the back of the weaker dollar coupled with US President Trump’s constructive remarks on China. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,216.50-9,362.00/t range.
  • UBS says risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside in the short term. Oil demand should grow in line with long term growth rate of 1.2MBPD, with oil market almost balanced this year. Remain long gold in global strategy with target of USD 2,850/oz by the year end.
  • Russian Kremlin (on the prospect of lower oil prices helping to end the war in Ukraine) says the essence of conflict for Russia is based on national security, not oil.
  • Ukraine Military says drones struck a Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery and other oil facilities in an overnight attack.
  • China crude steel output+11.8% Y/Y to 75.0mln tonnes in December 2024; Global crude steel +5.6% Y/Y.
  • Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

  • EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.6); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 46.1 vs. Exp. 45.3 (Prev. 45.1); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jan) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.6); “Cost inflation has increased in the services sector, which ECB president Christine Lagarde has said to monitor closely.”… “Given the weak state of the economy, the ECB will likely stick to its gradual pace of cutting interest rates, for the time being.”
  • French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 48.3 vs. Exp. 47.7 (Prev. 47.5); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 45.3 vs. Exp. 42.3 (Prev. 41.9); Services Flash PMI (Jan) 48.9 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.3); “The French economy is not fundamentally in a dire state, as indicated by the sub-index for future output, which is neutral. It is primarily the political crisis that is economically paralysing the country.”
  • German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 50.1 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.0); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 44.1 vs. Exp. 42.7 (Prev. 42.5); Services Flash PMI (Jan) 52.5 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.2); “Manufacturing output is shrinking at the slowest rate since mid-2024, and the new order situation has eased a bit too.”
  • UK Flash Composite PMI (Jan) 50.9 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.4); Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.2 vs. Exp. 47.0 (Prev. 47.0); Flash Services PMI (Jan) 51.2 vs. Exp. 50.9 (Prev. 51.1); “Inflation pressures have meanwhile reignited, pointing to a stagflationary environment which poses a growing policy quandary for the Bank of England.”… “While the stalled economy and deteriorating jobs market suggest there’s an increased need for rate cuts to stimulate growth, the rise in price pressures hints that the inflation genie is by no means back in its bottle”.
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jan) -22.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -17.0)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says will continue to sail around Africa vis Cape of Good Hope until safe passage through Red Sea/Gulf of Aden is ensured for longer term.
  • ECB’s Lagarde says she has confidence that inflation will continue to slow.
  • German Government forecasts 0.3% Economic Growth in 2025, revised down from 1.1%, via Handelsblatt

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • The US House Republican committee chairs pitched in a private meeting what could add up to between USD 2.5-3 trillion of spending cuts and budget savings to fund Republicans’ reconciliation package, according to Punchbowl News. The Energy and Commerce Committee is eyeing up to USD 2tln of cuts, including per capita caps for Medicaid. Energy-related cuts, such as rolling back tailpipe rules and fuel efficiency benchmarks for cars and light trucks, known as CAFE standards, were also part of the committee’s pitch. The Education and Workforce panel believes it has up to USD 500bln in cuts, largely through targeting student loans. The House Agriculture Committee is targeting between USD 100bln and USD 250bln in cuts. Some would impact SNAP, aka food stamps. The Transportation and Infrastructure panel’s up to USD 26bln in savings would include raising tonnage duties for ships, and electric vehicles fees that would go into the Highway Trust Fund. Ultimately, each and every cut will have to get approved by every Republican member in the House – any GOP member could kill the bill, at least until early April.

GEOPOLITICS

CHINA

  • US President Trump said the conversation with China’s Xi went fine and responded he can when asked if he can make a deal with China, while he added he would rather not have to use tariffs over China, via a pre-taped interview with Fox News.

MIDDLE EAST

  • Palestinian TV reported large Israeli forces stormed the city of Tulkarm in the West Bank accompanied by military bulldozers, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Trump administration officials told Israeli officials that he does not intend to start his term with a new war in the Middle East and wants to reach a very strict agreement to prevent Iran from reaching a nuclear weapon, while Trump believes that the Iranians will rush to the negotiating table under his leadership, according to Channel 12.
  • UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 86NM northeast of Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia in which a vessel was approached by a small military craft which kept hailing the vessel to turn to port towards Iranian territorial waters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russia’s Kremlin says President Putin has made clear he wants to restart Nuclear arms cuts talks as soon as possible.
  • Russia’s Security Council Secretary Shoigu said risk of an armed clash between nuclear powers is growing and accused NATO of increasing activities on the eastern flank of Russia and Belarus and of rehearsing offensive operations there, according to TASS.
  • Moscow’s Mayor announced that air defence units southeast of Moscow repel attacks by drones headed for the capital, while the Governor of Russia’s Ryazan region southeast of Moscow announced that emergency services were responding to an air attack.

Other

  • US Secretary of State Rubio reinforced US commitment to NATO in a call with the NATO Secretary General and discussed the importance of “real burden sharing”, as well as the importance of ending Russia’s war in Ukraine and the need for a peaceful solution.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is back on a firmer footing and tops USD 105k; Ethereum gains to a larger magnitude and climbs above USD 3.3k.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly higher following the continued gains on Wall St and constructive comments from US President Trump related to China tariffs but with the upside capped as the attention turned to the BoJ which delivered a widely expected rate hike.
  • ASX 200 edged mild gains with sentiment helped by the encouraging tariff-related rhetoric by Trump on China.
  • Nikkei 225 initially extended above the 40,000 level but then pared its advances after the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50% and raised its Core CPI forecasts across the board which disappointed those that were hoping for an overtly dovish hike.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were encouraged by the pre-taped comments from US President Trump that conversations with Chinese President Xi went fine and that he would rather not have to use tariffs over China, although risk sentiment in the mainland was somewhat tempered after the PBoC’s MLF operation resulted in a CNY 795bln drain.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC conducted a CNY 200bln 1-year MLF operation and left the rate unchanged at 2.00% for a CNY 795bln drain.
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the width of the policy band and level where it is centred unchanged but announced to reduce the slope of SGD NEER policy band, while it stated the measured adjustment is consistent with a modest and gradual appreciation path for the SGD NEER policy band, aiming to ensure medium-term price stability.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Dec) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 2.9%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.7%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%)

BoJ hike rates by 25bps as expected, Trump calls for lower oil prices & interest rates – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 01:57 AM

  • APAC stocks were mostly higher following the continued gains on Wall St and constructive comments from US President Trump related to China tariffs but with the upside capped as the attention turned to the BoJ which delivered a widely expected rate hike.
  • US President Trump said he expects the Fed to listen to him on interest rates and would consider talking to Fed’s Powell.
  • BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter – USD/JPY ultimately declined, Nikkei 225 pared earlier advances, and 10yr JGB futures ultimately declined; Governor Ueda’s presser due at 06:30 GMT/01: 30 EST.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were encouraged by the pre-taped comments from US President Trump that conversations with Chinese President Xi went fine and that he would rather not have to use tariffs over China.
  • European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Thursday.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US PMIs, Speakers including BoJ’s Ueda, ECB’s Lagarde & Cipollone, Earnings from Verizon, American Express & Burberry.

SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

EQUITIES

  • US stocks saw upside bias throughout the session and the major indices surged higher into the close in which all sectors closed in the green.
  • Health and Industrials sat at the top of the pile, while Tech lagged behind its peers as semiconductor names saw weakness after SK Hynix warned of steeper demand declines in commodity memory chips.
  • The main highlight of the day was President Trump’s virtual appearance at Davos, whereby he touched on numerous subjects, but notably sent the crude complex lower after noting he will be asking Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.
  • SPX +0.53% at 6,119, NDX +0.22% at 21,901, DJIA +0.92% at 44,565, RUT +0.47% at 2,315.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • US President Trump said he expects the Fed to listen to him on interest rates and would consider talking to Fed’s Powell.
  • US President Trump said they will bring corporate tax down to 15% if products are made in the US, while they are going to be demanding respect from other nations including Canada and are dealing with Mexico very well.
  • US Defense Secretary nominee Hegseth received enough support to advance in a key Senate test vote, according to Bloomberg.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were mostly higher following the continued gains on Wall St and constructive comments from US President Trump related to China tariffs but with the upside capped as the attention turned to the BoJ which delivered a widely expected rate hike.
  • ASX 200 edged mild gains with sentiment helped by the encouraging tariff-related rhetoric by Trump on China.
  • Nikkei 225 initially extended above the 40,000 level but then pared its advances after the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50% and raised its Core CPI forecasts across the board which disappointed those that were hoping for an overtly dovish hike.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were encouraged by the pre-taped comments from US President Trump that conversations with Chinese President Xi went fine and that he would rather not have to use tariffs over China, although risk sentiment in the mainland was somewhat tempered after the PBoC’s MLF operation resulted in a CNY 795bln drain.
  • US equity futures were uneventful but held on to the majority of the prior day’s spoils.
  • European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Thursday.

FX

  • DXY softened as markets continued to hang on Trump’s every word with the attention on the second part of Trump’s pre-taped interview with Fox News in which he suggested a preference of not using tariffs on China, while the greenback was also not helped by Trump’s recent calls for lower interest rates during his address to the WEF.
  • EUR/USD initially lacked direction amid light catalysts for the single currency and after recent oscillations around the 1.0400 level but then gained on the constructive China tariff-related comments from US President Trump.
  • GBP/USD extended on gains following the prior day’s outperformance with the UK seen to avert the Trump tariff risk.
  • USD/JPY ultimately declined after the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps, as expected, which was the most in 18 years.
  • Antipodeans strengthened alongside the yuan owing to comments from Trump that he would rather not have to use tariffs on China.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1705 vs exp. 7.2779 (prev. 7.1708).

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures were initially lacklustre after recent pressure and curve steepening but then saw some mild upside after Trump commented he would rather not have to use tariffs on China.
  • Bund futures attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses but with the rebound limited, while EU and German PMI data loom.
  • 10yr JGB futures ultimately declined with prices pressured after the BoJ delivered a widely expected rate hike and raised its Core CPI forecasts through to fiscal 2026.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures were contained after declining yesterday owing to comments from US President Trump who told the WEF in Davos that he will be asking Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.
  • US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -1.0M vs. Exp. -2.1M (Prev. -1.962M).
  • Spot gold resumed its advances following recent comments from US President Trump that he will demand that interest rates drop immediately and amid a softer dollar after Trump provided some tariff-related optimism regarding China.
  • Copper futures gradually extended on recent gains with bids seen as Chinese commodities trade got underway and on Trump’s comments.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin was choppy overnight but ultimately recovered from a brief dip beneath the USD 104k level.
  • US President Trump said he’s signing an order related to AI and crypto to develop the national digital asset stockpile and is signing an order related to establishing a commission on science and technology, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter, while it reiterated it will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts and it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. BoJ said real interest rates are at very low levels and inflation expectations have risen moderately, as well as noted the chance of Japan’s economy moving in line with the forecast is heightening and that many firms are saying they will offer solid pay hikes in this spring’s wage talks. Dissenter Nakamura said the BoJ should decide on changing the guideline for money market operations after confirming a rise in firms’ earnings power from sources, and after checking sources such as financial statements and statistics of corporations at the next monetary policy meeting. Furthermore, the Outlook Report projections were somewhat varied as Core CPI forecasts were lifted across the entire horizon period, while the Real GDP projection was cut for Fiscal 2024 but maintained for the subsequent years after.
  • PBoC conducted a CNY 200bln 1-year MLF operation and left the rate unchanged at 2.00% for a CNY 795bln drain.
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the width of the policy band and level where it is centred unchanged but announced to reduce the slope of SGD NEER policy band, while it stated the measured adjustment is consistent with a modest and gradual appreciation path for the SGD NEER policy band, aiming to ensure medium-term price stability.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Dec) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 2.9%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.7%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%)

GEOPOLITICS

CHINA

  • US President Trump said the conversation with China’s Xi went fine and responded he can when asked if he can make a deal with China, while he added he would rather not have to use tariffs over China, via a pre-taped interview with Fox News.

MIDDLE EAST

  • Palestinian TV reported large Israeli forces stormed the city of Tulkarm in the West Bank accompanied by military bulldozers, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • US President Trump said there will be consequences if the Gaza ceasefire doesn’t hold, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • US President Trump said it would be nice if issues with Iran could be worked out without Israel striking military facilities.
  • Trump administration officials told Israeli officials that he does not intend to start his term with a new war in the Middle East and wants to reach a very strict agreement to prevent Iran from reaching a nuclear weapon, while Trump believes that the Iranians will rush to the negotiating table under his leadership, according to Channel 12.
  • UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 86NM northeast of Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia in which a vessel was approached by a small military craft which kept hailing the vessel to turn to port towards Iranian territorial waters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US President Trump said he would really like to be able to meet Russian President Putin soon, while he sees US-China relations as being ‘very good’ and stated they need to have a fair relationship, Furthermore, he said hopefully China can help us stop the war in Ukraine and that he would like to see denuclearisation with Russia and China, as well as stated that Russian President Putin liked the idea of cutting way back on nuclear. It was later reported that President Trump said Ukrainian President Zelensky told him that he’s ready to make a deal, while Trump wants to meet immediately with Russia’s President Putin and noted that China has a lot of power over Russia.
  • Russia’s Security Council Secretary Shoigu said risk of an armed clash between nuclear powers is growing and accused NATO of increasing activities on the eastern flank of Russia and Belarus and of rehearsing offensive operations there, according to TASS.
  • Moscow’s Mayor announced that air defence units southeast of Moscow repel attacks by drones headed for the capital, while the Governor of Russia’s Ryazan region southeast of Moscow announced that emergency services were responding to an air attack.

Other

  • US President Trump said not sure they should be spending anything on NATO and that they’re protecting NATO but it is not protecting the US.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio reinforced US commitment to NATO in a call with the NATO Secretary General and discussed the importance of “real burden sharing”, as well as the importance of ending Russia’s war in Ukraine and the need for a peaceful solution.

EU/UK

DATA RECAP

  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jan) -22.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -17.0)

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

3C JAPAN

end

end

What a horrible scene: Afghan migrant stabs 2 year toddler to death

(zerohedge)

“Remigration Now” – AfD’s Weidel Calls For Mass Deportations After Afghan Migrant Stabs 2-Year-Old To Death

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Liz Heflin via Remix News,

Following the brutal attack that cost two people their lives yesterday, including a 2-year-old child, in the Bavarian city of Aschaffenburg, Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel is calling for mass deportations.

“In Bavaria, which is governed by the CSU, an Afghan in Aschaffenburg kills a toddler (2) and a good Samaritan (41) who rushed to help the child. The Afghan had previously followed the child’s daycare group. My thoughts are with the relatives and the injured. Remigration now!” wrote Weidel on X.

Yesterday, as Remix News reported, a 28-year-old Afghan man killed two people in a knife attack on a kindergarten group in a park in Aschaffenburg, Bavaria. The victims were a two-year-old boy and a 41-year-old passerby, said Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) in Aschaffenburg. Three people were injured, including a two-year-old girl.

According to Herrmann’s statements, as cited by Die Weltinitial findings indicate that the Afghan suspect stabbed a child from the kindergarten group “suddenly and deliberately” with a kitchen knife.

The 41-year-old man was allegedly trying to prevent further attacks on the children and was killed in the process. Police say other passers-by pursued the perpetrator fled on foot. A few minutes after the attack, the man was caught by police officers. The kitchen knife used in the attack was also confiscated.

“A passer-by and two colleagues tried to resuscitate (the child),” a police officer stated.

Another child still in the group’s handcart, used to transport the toddlers, was stabbed but conscious and received immediate medical assistance on-site. 

“I find this situation completely incomprehensible,” said Bavaria’s Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann after a moment of silence. 

An initial investigation has revealed that the suspect was undergoing psychiatric treatment and was supposed to leave Germany. He had been caught at least three times in the past for violent crimes, and had been given psychiatric treatment and released each time, said the minister. In December, the district court in Aschaffenburg ordered him to be placed under supervision.

According to the state health minister, Judith Gerlach (CSU), the three injured people were treated in an Aschaffenburg hospital. The two-year-old girl suffered stab wounds to the neck, the injured adult suffered stab wounds to the upper body, and the kindergarten teacher broke her forearm in a fall.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) described the events as an “unbelievable act of terror” and assured the victims and their families of the German government’s sympathy. The authorities must now “work hard to clarify” why “the attacker” is still in the country, he said in Berlin. “I am sick of seeing such acts of violence every few weeks by perpetrators who came to us to find protection,” said the Scholz.

However, Scholz is already being slammed for allowing yet another heinous attack involving foreigners in just a matter of months. The left-wing head of the BSW, Sahra Wagenknecht, is calling the knife attack a clear signal that the government’s refugee policy has failed.

“The fact that nothing happened after Mannheim and Solingen is primarily the failure of the chancellor and his interior minister,” Wagenknecht told Politico magazine. “That makes them politically responsible for every further terrible act.”

The chancellor summoned the heads of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the Federal Criminal Police Office, and the Federal Police to the Chancellery yesterday evening. According to government sources, Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD) will also attend the meeting. Scholz returned to Berlin from a trip to Paris shortly before 7 p.m.

Other ministers and politicians have also expressed their shock and sympathies.

Faeser said she was “deeply shocked” by the crime, however, as Remix News has pointed out, this has become a sad refrain from her in recent months.

CDU chairman and Union top candidate Friedrich Merz was also “deeply shocked.”

“Things cannot go on like this,” Merz said, adding, “We must and will restore law and order.”

Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder expressed his condolences on X to the relatives and those affected. Söder called the act “cowardly and despicable” and demanded a “complete investigation.”

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) was also appalled by the act and spoke about the knife attack on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The Greens’ candidate for chancellor called the attack a “terrible assassination attempt,” calling out its “brutality and perversity” and expressing his condolences to the relatives.

FDP parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr called for a special conference of federal and state interior ministers as soon as possible. “Politicians must react to this,” Dürr told the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND). It must be ensured that potential violent offenders and psychologically conspicuous people like the perpetrator from Aschaffenburg are identified and deported. “We have learned from a series of terrible events that those who have already attracted attention pose a danger,” said Dürr.

The police are also asking any witnesses to upload video recordings to a website or report relevant observations to 0800 0060322.

Read more here..

The war is over: Israel declares victory in region-shaping conflict – opinion

Middle Israel | The military war was between the IDF and the jihadist armies that attacked the Jewish state, one from its south, one from its north, and two from afar.

By AMOTZ ASA-ELJANUARY 24, 2025 09:37Updated: JANUARY 24, 2025 14:58

 SOLDIERS GATHER at a lookout near the border with Gaza this week. (photo credit: AMIR COHEN/REUTERS)
SOLDIERS GATHER at a lookout near the border with Gaza this week.(photo credit: AMIR COHEN/REUTERS)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-838993&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250122_f3eb5f214fbfbad794f66420c514fd794c9036b3&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The war is over. The catastrophe that began with 6,000 gunmen’s surprise attack on 32 Israeli communities is over, because even if Gaza returns to spew fire, as it likely will, it will not reignite the regional war that it sparked in October 2023. 

The 15-month war that ended Sunday had three tiers: the military, the geopolitical, and the ideological. 

The military war was between the IDF and the jihadist armies that attacked the Jewish state, one from its south, one from its north, and two from afar. The geopolitical war pitted Israel against the jihadist axis and its two supporting superpowers. And the ideological war was about the jihadist idea that drove this war’s engineers. 

The ideological war is far from over, but that war isn’t against Israel alone, and it isn’t Israel’s to win. It’s mankind’s. In the two other wars, the result is unambiguous: Israel won. THE WAR’S military outcome was hinted already on its first day. Yes, Hamas’s motorcycles, zodiacs, pickup trucks, and hang gliders successfully crossed the border, and their 6,000 riders did a lot of killing and pillaging, but it took hardly 48 hours to kill, wound, capture, and chase away the entire invading force, to the last man.

 Palestinian Hamas terrorists parade as they prepare to hand over hostages kidnapped during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, to the Red Cross as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza City, January 19, 2025. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)
Palestinian Hamas terrorists parade as they prepare to hand over hostages kidnapped during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, to the Red Cross as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza City, January 19, 2025. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)

The invaders’ plan, to reach the West Bank and join hands with its own militants, was thwarted, despite the IDF’s woeful unpreparedness. The Gazan fighter, once in combat, proved militarily undertrained and logistically naked. To accomplish the deeper invasion Hamas had in mind, it had to supply its troops with food, gas, and ammunition. If it had such capabilities, it never displayed them. 

This tactical flaw was compounded by fateful strategic misjudgments. 

Hamas’s assumption, that Hezbollah would invade the Galilee while it invaded the Negev, was dashed, but that was the smaller miscalculation. Hamas failed to predict that Hezbollah would be floored, as it was in multiple ways: its leadership was annihilated, its troops were decimated, its hardware was incinerated, and its outposts were razed. 

Hamas certainly failed to predict Hezbollah’s political crash, as its Lebanese rivals installed a president whom Hezbollah opposed, and thus broke Hezbollah’s stranglehold on Lebanese politics. 

Hamas’s miscalculations concerning Israel were even worse. Its invasion’s overarching assumptions, that the IDF would not dare enter Gaza’s dense urbanity, and that Israelis had lost the will to fight, proved unfounded. 

Gaza was invaded big time; Israel’s soldiers fought tooth and nail; Hamas’s troops were killed by the thousands; and Gaza’s houses, roads, plazas, and pavements became piles of rubble, cement, and dust. 



Yes, Hama’s offensive – as noted here the week it was launched – will be counted among military history’s most successful surprise attacks. However, by the same token, its planners’ strategic dilettantism will be counted alongside Hitler’s when he stormed Stalingrad and Japan’s when it bombarded Pearl Harbor. They had no idea what they were provoking. 

Much has been said about the Israeli intelligence failures that enabled the October 7 fiasco. Yet the massacre’s planners, all of whom are no longer with us, had their own intelligence failures: the ignorance of the IDF’s abilities and the underestimation of its esprit de corps. 

This is besides the broader failures of the war Hamas started, failures that it could not have predicted, but are still its attack’s results. 

Hamas’s attack triggered Iran’s attacks on Israel, which resulted in Israel’s counterattacks, which exposed Iran’s military weakness. Hamas’s attack also caused Hezbollah’s downfall, because it gave Israel the pretext to launch the gloveless attack it had prepared for years. 

Lastly, Hezbollah’s attack caused the downfall of the Syrian regime, and its army’s demolition by the IDF. Hezbollah supplied the best warriors who confronted Assad’s enemies in the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah’s defeat thus made the Syrian rebels decide that the time for their assault on Damascus had arrived. 

Yes, it was some chain reaction, and it now leaves Hamas all alone, staring at defeat through the ruins of Gaza’s tunnels and the haze of its scorched earth. 

This doesn’t mean that Israel’s victory is complete. It isn’t. The hostages have yet to return home, Hamas has yet to be replaced, and the pain of our losses – 1,844 killed and 23,907 wounded while 143,000 Israelis were displaced – will haunt us for decades.

Even so, the war as it unfolded since October ’23 has ended, and it ended in Israeli victory, because Hamas lost its Iranian roof, its Lebanese backyard, its Syrian flank, and also its geopolitical umbrella, after Russia’s loss of its Syrian fort.

It’s an incredible aftermath, a cataclysm, in fact, and the question is who are the Israelis who made it happen?THE FIRST victors in this war are the Israeli foot soldier, the college-age regular who stormed Hamas and Hezbollah, and each of the 300,000 reservists who left home, family, and work to risk their lives in this war’s multiple fronts. 

The second victors are the same security forces whose failures enabled the October 7 debacle: the intelligence agencies that located and harpooned the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza, Beirut, and Tehran; the ground forces that overran Gaza and south Lebanon; and the air force that launched flawless attacks in multiple arenas between Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. 

Beyond them lurked the military industries, whose drones did wonders in Gaza’s alleys and tunnels, and whose interceptors helped fend off some 350 ballistic and cruise missiles fired here from Iran. 

In between all these, one man looms tall as the embodiment of what we have been through since the October 7 attack: Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi 

Halevi will be recalled as the soldier whose failures of judgment, operational wisdom, mental resilience, and humble leadership encapsulated everything that happened here during the war that began with Hamas’s massacre and ended with its masterminds’ defeat. http://www.MiddleIsrael.net

The writer, a Hartman Institute fellow, is author of the bestselling Mitzad Ha’ivelet Ha’yehudi (The Jewish March of Folly, Yediot Sefarim, 2019), a revisionist history of the Jewish people’s political leadership

PM holds consultations on how to respond to Hamas violation of hostage deal

By Jacob Magid FollowToday, 6:19 p

Members of security forces loyal to Hamas stand guard in front of a destroyed police compound in Gaza City, on January 22, 2025, on the fourth day of a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas. (Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz and Israel’s security chiefs are reportedly holding consultations regarding how to respond to the list of female hostages Hamas releases that violates the terms of the deal.

The agreement requires Hamas to release all of the female civilian hostages before moving on to the category of female soldiers, followed by elderly hostages, followed by seriously ill hostages.

On Wednesday, Israel conveyed to Hamas that it expects the terror group to free hostage Arbel Yehud in this weekend’s release of four hostages.

Yehud is among the civilian hostages held by Gaza terrorists, and, as a female civilian, should be in the next batch freed. However, she is thought to be held by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group and not Hamas, apparently leading to concern in Jerusalem that Hamas may attempt to put off her release.

Israel has a host of options before it regarding how to respond to the Hamas violation.

It could pull out of its commitment to allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza tomorrow or it could change or limit the list of Palestinian prisoners it is supposed to release in return for the four hostages.

For each of the living female civilian hostages, the deal provides for Israel to release 30 Palestinian prisoners. For each of the living female IDF soldiers, 50 prisoners are to be released. The prisoners to be freed in exchange for living female soldiers include Palestinians serving life sentences for murder and other acts of terror.

end

IDF to stay in southern Lebanon after deadline

The security cabinet met on Thursday to debate how long Israel should stay in southern Lebanon considering the Lebanese side hasn’t fulfilled its part of the agreement.

By AMICHAI STEINJANUARY 23, 2025 22:39

 An Israeli military official walks near Israel's border with Lebanon, in northern Israel, January 13, 2025 (photo credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)
An Israeli military official walks near Israel’s border with Lebanon, in northern Israel, January 13, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)

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The IDF will stay in southern Lebanon after day 60 of the ceasefire but it’s still unclear for how long, according to sources in the defense establishment and ministers, who convened on Thursday night to discuss the situation.Sunday will mark 60 days since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on November 27.

The agreement drafted by US envoy Amos Hochstein dictates that the Lebanese Army will be deployed in southern Lebanon during the first 60 days, dismantling Hezbollah camps and equipment. After day 60, Israeli forces are expected to completely withdraw from Lebanese territory.

Israeli officials, however, have said the Lebanese Army is not doing the job fast enough.

“The deployment is not according to the schedule, and the work they are doing on the ground is minimal”, two Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post.

The security cabinet met on Thursday to debate how long Israel should stay in southern Lebanon considering the Lebanese side hasn’t fulfilled its part of the agreement.

 Israeli army forces stand outside a house that was hit by rockets fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon in the northern Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona on Nov. 26, 2024.  (credit: JALAA MAREY/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
Israeli army forces stand outside a house that was hit by rockets fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon in the northern Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona on Nov. 26, 2024. (credit: JALAA MAREY/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)

The hope, or as some officials call it, “the dream,” is that the Trump administration will allow Israel to leave a permanent military outpost in southern Lebanon near the border.

Changes in Lebanon’s political landscape

In recent weeks, as reported in the Post, Trump officials told senior Israeli officials: “We don’t want this deal to fall apart.”

Two Western diplomats told the Post that now that there is an anti-Hezbollah prime minister and president, a permanent Israeli presence will cause Hezbollah to proclaim that only it can make Israel leave, a statement that might increase the terrorist group’s political power in the country after attempts to downgrade its political influence.Israeli officials stressed that whatever the decision is, the government wants Washington to agree to it.

“The last thing we want, is the US pulling out of the mechanism that is supposed to monitor the ceasefire, which will leave the Lebanese Army by itself, in charge of dismantling Hezbollah camps, and we all know how well that can turn out to be,” one Israeli official told the Post.

Tunnels and weapons in a mosque: IDF unearths Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon

Engineering troops examined the subterranean infrastructure before demolishing it.   

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 24, 2025 14:32

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3838333&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-839076IDF footage of the destruction of Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon. January 24, 2025. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson)

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IDF troops of the 769th Brigade uncovered underground tunnels belonging to the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah while operating in the Saluki area of southern Lebanon, the military said on Friday. 

Engineering troops examined the subterranean infrastructure before demolishing it.   

Inside a mosque, troops found a weapons storage facility, along with weapons loaded onto a vehicle and hundreds of mortar shells, rockets, and military equipment belonging to the terror group. 

 IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. January 24, 2025. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. January 24, 2025. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

Separately, troops of the Golani Brigade found trucks containing rocket launchers. 

Confiscating weapons

Furthermore, soldiers found weapons caches containing numerous rockets, mortar shells, explosives, and additional military equipment.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3838336&url=www.jpost.comFootage of the vehicle unearthed beneath the mosque in southern Lebanon. January 24, 2025. (Credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT).

The IDF noted that the totality of the weapons were confiscated, and the storage facilities were destroyed. 

Are the Lebanon, Gaza ceasefires about to pop? – analysis

IDF set to pull back from Lebanon Sunday and Gaza’s Netzarim Saturday, testing Netanyahu’s resolve amid Hamas talks and coalition pressures.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBJANUARY 23, 2025 20:03Updated: JANUARY 23, 2025 22:02Facebook

Smoke and flames are seen following what police said was an Israeli air strike in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip July 8, 2014. (photo credit: REUTERS)
Smoke and flames are seen following what police said was an Israeli air strike in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip July 8, 2014.(photo credit: REUTERS)

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On Sunday, the 60-day period for the IDF to withdraw from southern Lebanon expires.

On Saturday, the IDF is due to withdraw from Netzarim, opening the floodgates for a potential million plus Palestinians to return to northern Gaza from southern Gaza. There are also supposed to be in the near future Palestinian Authority-affiliated officials handling aspects of the Gaza-Egypt Rafah Border Crossing, a highly controversial matter for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

On February 3, the IDF and Hamas are due to start negotiations over making the current 42-day ceasefire permanent and about what the post-war Gaza order will look like.

All of this could blow up in a moment, and war could return to one or both fronts in an instant.

Will it?

At press time, all Israeli defense officials, Lebanese officials, and Western officials were waiting to hear what the Israeli cabinet would decide in terms of whether to try to extend the IDF stay in some parts of southern Lebanon or complete the withdrawal. There were leaks from an Israeli official that at least there would not be a complete withdrawal on Sunday itself, but this left plenty of room for interpretation.

 Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 24, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 24, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)

While Netanyahu has asked the support of US President Donald Trump to keep around five IDF positions in Lebanon, and the military itself has asked for another 30 days to ensure Hezbollah weapons on the Lebanon-Israeli border get destroyed, there has been pushback from Trump.

In theory, Trump probably does not care much if Israel overstays the deal somewhat, but if this led to Hezbollah firing rockets and a renewal of the war on the northern border, he would probably be furious with Netanyahu.

This is exactly what Hezbollah has threatened, including a detailed and updated threat on Thursday night. But are they serious? And would they really roll the dice all out if the IDF just stayed another 30 days or another 15 days?

Part of this is the Israeli-Lebanese government-Hezbollah sides all trying to shape the terms of the post-war order within Lebanon and on the border.

Sure, Israel got Hezbollah to stop firing rockets as of the ceasefire

But can it really prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon with no physical presence there?



And given the Lebanese army’s reluctance to clear Hezbollah’s weapons, will they really stop Hezbollah from returning?

If Hezbollah only returns very gradually and in various camouflaged ways, how far will the IDF go in potentially attacking from the air, which could lead to civilian and Lebanese army harm?

As Lebanon’s new president and prime minister – who Hezbollah opposed – take office – how much will they press Hezbollah to give up pieces of its military control of the state versus trying to get along with Hezbollah so that they can remain in office?

All of these questions and Israeli efforts to convince Trump it can keep some longer foothold in Lebanon are why Israel started rolling out press release after press release in recent days, including on Thursday, about finding new Hezbollah weapons on the border – this after weeks of basically radio silence about Hezbollah.

On Thursday, the IDF said that Division 91 and the 7th Armored Brigade found anti-tank missiles, grenades, and Kalashnikov assault rifles during its patrols.

Moreover, the Yahalom combat engineering unit and other soldiers unearthed several additional tunnels belonging to Hezbollah, including weapons storage.

Once again, many of these same questions have been transferred in one way or another to Gaza.

Once a million Palestinians return to northern Gaza, who will run their lives if not Hamas? Is it viable for Israel to threaten to go back to war there with so many civilians just returned after 15 months?

Once the PA has even a technical foothold at the Rafah Crossing, how will Israel really prevent them from expanding their reach in Gaza if they reach a deal with Hamas, moderate Sunni donor countries, and the West?

Netanyahu’s spokesperson noted that EUBAM, a European unit, will supervise the actual transfer of humanitarian aid via the Rafah Crossing, but will that really prevent the PA from gaining a foothold?

The prime minister has been adamant that the IDF will return to war on Day 42 and will not withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor. But he also wants the remaining 30 hostages back from Hamas.

Why would Hamas return all of those hostages once it gets closer to Day 42 if it does not believe the ceasefire will continue and that the IDF will leave the Philadelphi area?

What will Netanyahu do when Trump makes it clear to him that he does not want the war re-ignited and that, at most, he might approve ongoing smaller raids by IDF forces as in the West Bank?

And if Hamas refuses to return the remaining hostages beyond the 33 guaranteed in Phase I, unless Israel commits to ending the war in principle and concretely to two additional periods of around 42 days to receive the additional hostages, will Netanyahu fight back against a new level of fury from the hostage families?

On the flip side, will he not jump back into the war in Gaza on some level on Day 42 if Betzalel Smotrich threatens to topple his government otherwise? And with that hanging over his head, might Netanyahu not start shaking the boat with Hamas on Day 16 to try negotiating for it to give up control of Gaza to Sunni allies and the West?

But even if Hamas says a conditional “yes” if the Sunni allies and the West condition their help on giving the PA a greater role, supported loudly by opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, who will give Netanyahu a government safety net vote, which way will Netanyahu go?

All of this will make for an explosive coming days and weeks as many of the fateful post-war questions that Netanyahu has delayed for 15 months finally come charging back to haunt him.


Video shows Hamas executing several alleged ‘collaborators’ in Gaza

By Emanuel Fabian

Hamas operatives executed several alleged “collaborators” in the Gaza Strip today, according to a video shared by popular online media channel Gaza Now.

Gaza Now, which boasts 1.7 million followers on Telegram, publishes a video showing more than a dozen Hamas operatives, many of them in uniform, opening fire on three men lying on the ground.

The video is captioned “The moment of punishing the agents of the Zionist occupation who caused the killing of thousands of our Palestinian people in Gaza.”

The video could not immediately be verified.

Hamas has regularly issued death sentences for people found guilty of “collaboration” with Israel, executing dozens of Palestinians in recent years.

END

Trump: ‘Would be nice’ if Iran issues could be fixed without Israeli strike on military facilities

“Iran will hopefully make a deal, and if they don’t make a deal, that’s okay too,” Trump added.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSJANUARY 24, 2025 02:19Updated: JANUARY 24, 2025 03:08

 U.S. President Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office of the White House, as he signs executive orders, in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2025. (photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
U.S. President Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office of the White House, as he signs executive orders, in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)

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US President Donald Trump commented on Israel’s conflict with Iran on Thursday, saying, “It would be nice” if Israel would avoid escalation involving striking Iran’s military facilities. 

The statements came when he was asked by a reporter at the Oval Office what he thought about a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities as he signed executive orders.

“It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step,” Trump responded.

“Iran will hopefully make a deal, and if they don’t make a deal, that’s okay too,” he added.

 U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House, in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House, in Washington, U.S., January 23, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)

Tensions in the Middle East 

This comes after Iran on Thursday condemned a move by Trump to re-designate Yemen’s Tehran-aligned Houthi movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), calling the decision “baseless.”

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that the move, which will impose harsher economic penalties than the Biden administration had applied to the Houthis, was “an excuse to apply anti-human sanctions against the Yemeni people.”

END

Weapons, explosive devices found, terrorists arrested during operation in Jenin

Over ten terrorists were killed, and about 20 wanted terrorists were arrested, along with countless weapons and combat equipment getting confiscated.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 24, 2025 16:00Updated: JANUARY 24, 2025 16:24Facebook

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3838347&url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-839088IDF troops conduct 72 hour operation in Jenin in the West Bank, January 24, 2025 (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit).

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During a 72-hour operation in Jenin, the IDF, Shin Bet, and Border Police uncovered weapons that were hidden in walls, destroyed explosive devices, and arrested wanted terrorists, the three security organizations announced on Friday.

Over ten terrorists were killed, and about 20 wanted terrorists were arrested, along with countless weapons and combat equipment getting confiscated.

The forces also discovered a laboratory used to manufacture explosive devices and destroyed it.

A Border Police unit, directed by the Shin Bet, found a cache of weapons hidden inside the walls of a house.

‘Multi-front campaign’

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3838346&url=www.jpost.comIDF carries out 72 hour operation in Jenin, in the West Bank, January 24, 2025 (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

Terror cannot be defeated solely by defensive actions, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Ronen Bar said during a situational assessment in the West Bank city of Jenin on Wednesday with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi. 

“We are in a multi-front campaign—but right now, it’s Samaria’s time,” he asserted.

“You can’t defeat terrorism through defense alone. I think the value of completing the mission has very significant benefits,” Bar added.

Halevi added that there was a need for a series of military operations in the Palestinian refugee camp

“We need to be prepared to continue in the Jenin camp, which will bring it to a different place – we are denying the enemy opportunities to harm our forces.”

Commanding Officer of the Central Command, Maj.-Gen. Avi Bluth, and the Commanding Officer of the Judea and Samaria Division, Brig.-Gen. Yaki Dolf, were among those in attendance at the situational assessment. 

END

By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 4:39 pm

Months after they were killed, Hamas acknowledges that an Israeli airstrike last summer eliminated Rawhi Mushtaha, the de facto prime minister of the Gaza Strip, along with another top official.

The Israel Defense Forces said in October 2024 that an airstrike on a tunnel in northern Gaza three months earlier had killed Mushtaha, along with Hamas officials Sameh al-Siraj, who held the security portfolio in Hamas’s political bureau, and Sami Odeh, the head of Hamas’s “general security mechanism.”

END

Russia is not losing lots of soldiers. Here is the truth on the matter!

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;

Russian casualties and the Russian Economy — A Memo for President Donald Trump
By Larry C. Johnson on 23 January 2025
Mr. President, I believe that the CIA is providing you inaccurate, false intelligence about Russia’s casualties and the condition of its economy. If you hope to realize your goal of opening negotiations with President Vladimir Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, you must be equipped with the best information available.You have been briefed that Russia has suffered devastating losses — as many as 800,000 casualties — and that Russia’s economy is weak and fragile. Data from open sources paint a diametrically opposite picture.

One of the best open sources for information about Russian casualties is Mediazona:Mediazona (Russian: Медиазона) is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot. The outlet’s editor-in-chief is Russian political journalist Sergey Smirnov.Mediazona is an independent organization that is ideologically opposed to Vladimir Putin. It is the antithesis of a Russian propaganda outlet. Mediazona employs a multi-faceted methodology to track Russian casualties in the Ukraine war, which includes:Open-source intelligence gathering: They monitor publicly available information from news agencies, social media platforms, official military reports, and local residents’ groups.Collaboration: Mediazona works closely with the BBC Russian Service to track and verify casualty reports.

Comprehensive database:

They maintain a regularly updated casualty list, which currently contains over 44,600 names of Russian soldiers killed in action.Probate Registry analysis: Mediazona combines their casualty list with data from the Probate Registry database to estimate the true mortality rate among Russian men.Statistical modeling: They use a method that accounts for all excess male mortality up to age 50, considering factors such as social composition, delays in notary consultations, and death registration delays.Cross-referencing: The team verifies information by cross-checking multiple sources and databases.Volunteer network: A team of volunteers assists in data collection and verification.Continuous updating: The database is regularly updated to reflect the most current information available.According to Mediazona’s latest data, there are 88,726 confirmed Russian combat deaths since February 2022. Mediazona estimates, using probate registry data, that the number may be as high as 120,000. This is a far cry from the numbers claimed by Ukrainian intelligence, which forms the basis of CIA estimates.It is essential that you understand that Russia views this war as vital to its continued existence. Russia is not fighting to reconstitute the Soviet Empire. It sees Ukraine as a Western-proxy being used to attack Russia with US and NATO supplied weapons and intelligence, with the ultimate goal of destroying the current government. Accordingly, the only satisfactory outcome for Russia is to end this threat. President Putin is willing to accept a negotiated settlement provided that Ukraine is stripped of its capacity to launch future attacks on Russia and that NATO ends any consideration of making Ukraine a member of NATO.According to the latest IMF projections, Russia’s economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, a slight increase from their previous forecast of 1.3%. This represents a slowdown from the estimated 3.8% growth in 2024. The IMF attributes this slowdown to several factors:Transition from a “war economy”:

Russia’s economy has been running hot, fueled by substantial public spending on the war effort.High inflation: The IMF reports inflation in Russia at 8.3% in 2024, with sequential inflation even higher at above 9%.Monetary tightening: In response to high inflation, the Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates to 21%, which is expected to weigh down economic activity.The IMF’s forecast for Russia in 2025 is lower than the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s baseline forecast of 2.5% growth. However, it falls within the Central Bank of Russia’s current forecast range of 0.5-1.5%.It’s worth noting that some Russian officials, including Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, have criticized the IMF’s forecasts as overly pessimistic, arguing that they don’t account for measures taken by Russian authorities to support the economy.Here is the critical point: Despite the projected slowdown, the IMF’s forecast suggests that Russia’s economy continues to show resilience in the face of Western sanctions, largely due to factors such as robust oil and commodity exports to countries like India and China, and the expansion of its military-industrial complex.The Russian government view of its economy remains upbeat, with officials highlighting strong growth figures and resilience in the face of Western sanctions. The Russian government points to several key indicators to support this optimistic view:GDP growth: The economy grew by 3.6% in 2023 and is expected to grow by around 4% in 2024, making Russia one of the fastest-growing major economies13.Low unemployment: The unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% in 2024, a historically low level14.Rising global economic status: According to the World Bank, Russia has overtaken Germany and Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world when measured by purchasing power parity1.Increased investment: Fixed capital investment grew by 9.8% in 2023 and 14.5% in the first quarter of 20241.Trade surplus: Russia enjoyed a surplus of $50.2 billion in 2023 and $40.6 billion in the first half of 20241.President Vladimir Putin uses these economic indicators to argue that Western sanctions have been ineffective and to showcase Russia’s economic model to partners in Asia and Africa.If you consider Russia’s perspective on the war in terms of casualties and the economy, Vladimir Putin is under no pressure to reach a negotiated settlement that does not address Russia’s strategic concerns that it will no longer face a military threat from NATO. If you fail to understand this and adjust your strategy to make a deal, your efforts to negotiate an end to war in Ukraine will not succeed.

end

Putin Ready To Meet ‘Smart, Pragmatic’ Trump To ‘Talk Calmly’ On Oil, Energy, Ukraine

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 02:25 PM

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated Friday that he’s ready to meet with US President Donald Trump in order to hopefully find “common ground” on strategic security and economic issues, particularly related to the Ukraine war.

“It will likely be better for us to meet, and based on today’s realities, speak calmly about areas that are of interest for both the US and Russia,” Putin said in televised comments. “We are ready, but this depends above all on the decision and choice of the current US administration.”

The Russian leader further acknowledged that Trump is a “pragmatic” and “smart” leader. This rare moment of praise at a time US-Russia relations are at a historical low point in modern history came despite Trump’s threats of new sanctions and tariffs unless Moscow quickly ends the nearly three-year long Ukraine war.

“I’ve always had a businesslike, pragmatic and even trusting relationship with the current president,” Putin said in the state broadcast.

And most interestingly, he continued: “And I can’t help but agree that if his victory hadn’t been stolen in 2020, the crisis in Ukraine might not have emerged in 2022.”

These words will be proverbial music to Trump’s ears, which demonstrates that Putin is truly seeking for the much-anticipated meeting to happen quickly. Soon after Monday’s inauguration Trump told reporters he expects to meet Putin “soon”.

Putin in these latest comments painted a theme of the US shooting itself in the foot with the sanctions, which would grow worse if more extreme measures are taken by Washington against Moscow. It had “hurt US interests, undermining the dollar’s role in global financial system,” Putin described as cited in the AP.

“I have a hard time imagining decisions being made that would damage the American economy,” Putin added of potentially extreme fluctuations in oil prices due to America’s sanctions policy and efforts to isolate Moscow.

Putin was indirectly addressing some provocative words of Trump given at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday evening, wherein he laid out that OPEC should to push down global oil prices in order to hurt vital stream of revenue for the Kremlin and its military machine. “Right now the price is high enough that that war will continue,” Trump had said. According to more:

Oil and gas revenues have been Russia’s most important source of cash, accounting for a third to a half of federal budget proceeds over the past decade.

On Friday, Putin downplayed Trump’s economic threats, saying “excessively” low oil prices were bad for both the US and Russia.

Markets have mostly shrugged off the back-and-forth, but oil prices dropped slightly on Putin’s energy comments…

As for the practical reality of what it will take to eventually get Putin and Zelensky at the same table, or their representatives directly engaged, the Russian leader explained the following:

Putin emphasized Friday that he’s open to talks but pointed to Zelenskyy’s 2022 decision to rule out negotiations with Moscow.

“How is it possible to conduct talks if they are banned?” Putin said. “If the talks start in the existing legal framework, they would be illegitimate and the results of those talks could also be declared illegitimate.”

But Zelensky has only within recent days begun to shift his rhetoric a little on this, which is no doubt the result of Trump entering office in expectation of a pressure campaign for peace.

At Davos yesterday…

There are reports saying that Zelensky fumed with anger at not being invited or in attendance from Trump’s Monday inauguration and all the ceremonies and celebrations that go along with it. Certainly Zelensky won’t be happy if Trump in reaction to Putin’s fresh remarks heaps praise on the Russian leader or say any level of positive things. One thing is for sure – Zelensky has lost his rock start status with a new US administration in town, and the global spotlight is now on Trump-Putin.

GLOBAL ISSUES//

In America just this past week, 58 babies have “died suddenly,” and 14 doctors died in Italy

Some standout horrors from our latest compilation, for those who don’t have the time, and/or the stomach, to read through the entire “Died Suddenly” we posted yesterday

Mark Crispin MillerJan 23
 
READ IN APP
 

Naomi Wolf discusses the ongoing infanticide with Dr. William Thorp.

January 23, 2025

Podcast Link

58 infants “died suddenly”:

A note from our researcher: I am sure readers have noticed the increasing number of infants in the weekly compilations. Mothers are also noticing that something is off. Check out the comment about the number of local SIDS deaths this mother has observed:

Tragic Loss Of DJ Ann Bratcher “Donut” Due To S.I.D.S

January 18, 2025

Caneyville, KY – DJ Ann Bratcher “ Donut” was the best daughter, sister, and granddaughter anybody could’ve asked for. Sadly, on January 16th at 7:00 am, she was taken from us due to SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Our family has been having a hard time due to the loss of her, and a helping hand would mean the world to us. More than 3 babies in our area have passed away due to SIDS recently.

No cause of death reported.

Link


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Baby Jakeem D Head

January 20, 2025

Perry, Georgia – Services for Baby Jakeem will be Monday at 1pm at Richardson & Son Funeral Home Chapel.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Hayden Lee Leonard, 1 day

January 20, 2025

Beaumont, Texas – Hayden Lee Leonard died peacefully while surrounded by his family at John Sealy Hospital in Galveston, Texas, on January 14, 2025. Born just one day earlier weighing a perfect 7 pounds, 6 ounces, not a single moment of Hayden’s life passed where he was not showered with an abundance of overwhelming love until he passed gently while wrapped in the warmth of his father’s arms.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Cornelius Brown, 12 1/2 months

January 20, 2025

Kansas City, Kansas – Infant Cornelius Brown was born on January 26th, 2024, to Synquez Brown and Travis Bray in Kansas City, Mo. Cornelius passed on February 11th, 2024.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Bia Nicole, our sleeping angel

January 18, 2025

Scottsboro, AL – Late in the evening on Sunday January 12, 2025 I noticed I hadn’t felt my baby kick in me for the last few hours and I started to grow concern. At 39 weeks and 2 days at the time, I was so anxious but so prepared to meet my sweet baby girl and decided to go in to labor and delivery to get checked out hoping maybe she was just extra comfy in there and running out of room. That trip that I hoped to be no big deal turned into finding out about 1:30 Monday morning, that my baby no longer had a heartbeat. After everything up until this point in my pregnancy being nearly perfect, all the scans, bloodwork, testing everything on paper was as close to perfect as they could be. After all the preparation, buying matching outfits and bows and little socks, setting everything up to be just perfect for her, going into crazy nesting mama mode for things to be just right for my first baby girl, it all just got taken from me in the blink of an eye. I delivered my perfect Bia Nicole Hammonds on Tuesday night, January 14th at 10:30 pm after laboring for 2 days knowing the ultimate outcome was I would never get to watch my baby grow up or see her little eyes or feel her little heartbeat outside of me. There is no words or anything anyone can say or do to take this pain from me and her father and our entire families. This baby was loved and longed for for so long and Bia took a piece of all of us with her.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Give Jade Elizabeth the Farewell She Deserves

January 18, 2025

Mount Holly, NJ – My name is Blare Hall and I have started this donation to help with unexpected burial arrangements for my daughter, Jade Elizabeth. When I was 20 weeks pregnant, I found out that Jade was diagnosed with a heart issue called Tretology of Fallot. I started seeing the doctors at CHOP in Philadelphia. The doctors monitored me closely, going back and forth two times a week. They told me she would need surgery soon after birth. I gave birth by c-section on January 2, 2025. Jade had her surgery on January 10, 2025, but was still struggling after her surgery. Jade passed away on January 14,2025, with both her parents by her side, leaving her brothers, Jeremiah (13) and Joshua (9), very confused as to why their baby sister never came home.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Support the Seagle Family’s Heartbreaking Loss

January 18, 2025

Benson, AZ – On January 15, 2025, the Seagle family suffered the unimaginable loss of their newborn baby boy, Virgil Seagle. This tragedy has left them heartbroken and in need of support during this incredibly difficult time.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Araceli Elena Garza, 26 days

January 18, 2025

San Antonio, Texas – Beautiful Baby Araceli Elena Garza was born on December 17, 2024, to Joey & Natalie Garza. She passed away peacefully in her mother’s arms, surrounded by her loving family on January 12, 2025. During her time here Baby Araceli was a perfect angel with such soft skin, tiny fingers and toes and a ton of hair. She brought so much light into our lives and truly blossomed like the cactus she is.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Ezra James’Lee Matthews Chatman, stillborn

January 18, 2025

Petersburg, VA – With profound sadness, we announced the passing of our precious baby Ezra James’Lee Matthews Chatman, who was born still on January 4th, 2025. Though our time together was brief, Ezra brought immeasurable love and light into our lives. Ezra will forever be cherished in our hearts and remembered for giving his dad lots of kicks at night that made him smile while in my belly. Even though you would stay moving around in my belly, you would make sure we got memorable ultrasound pics of you.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Baby Zoie Nyelle McCoy

January 18, 2025

Muscle Shoals, Alabama – An obituary is not available at this time for Baby Zoie Nyelle McCoy.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Tucker Blu Childers, 52 minutes

January 18, 2025

Pikeville, Kentucky – Tucker Blu Childers infant son of Kameron Ross Childers and Lacy Cecile May Childers born January 15, 2025, and blessed his parents and family with his presence for a short sweet time before gaining his Angel wings 52 minutes later.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Olivia Jo Guadalupe Covington, 43 days

January 18, 2025

Baird, Texas – Olivia Jo Guadalupe Covington, beautiful infant daughter of Angel and Bethany Covington, returned to the arms of Jesus after just 43 short days on earth. Olivia Jo was born December 2, 2024 at Hendrick Hospital in Abilene. In her short life she brought so much joy to her family, known as their “Wittle Princess” and “Eagle”.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Chloe Elizabeth Smith, stillborn

January 18, 2025

Springdale, Arkansas – Chloe Elizabeth Smith, of Springdale, Arkansas, was born sleeping on Friday, January 10, 2025, at Washington Regional Hospital in Fayetteville. She weighed 6 pounds, 2 ounces, was 18 inches long, and had the most adorable cheeks and nose – features that will be cherished forever.

No cause of death reported.

REAKING: President Trump Signs Executive Order to Declassify JFK, MLK, RFK Assassination Files, “Everything will be Revealed” (VIDEO); excellent step POTUS Trump, long overdue!

“A lot of people are waiting for this for a long time –years – decades,” President Trump said as he signed the order. Promise made, promises kept! And the same C*A & F*I tried to assassinate Trump too

Dr. Paul AlexanderJan 23
 
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BREAKING: President Trump Signs Executive Order to Declassify JFK, MLK, RFK Assassination Files, “Everything will be Revealed” (VIDEO) | The Gateway Pundit | by Cristina Laila

‘Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spent a considerable amount of time discussing his uncle’s assassination in great detail. Robert believes the CIA was involved. He wants the US government to come clean on its role in JFK’s death. Robert then went on to detail his father’s assassination. Robert accused the CIA of being involved in both assassinations.

Robert Kennedy, Jr., appeared on FOX News soon after his interview with TGP. He called on Joe Biden to honor his previous vote and release all of the government documents on his uncle’s death. Kennedy wants Biden to follow through with the 1992 Assassination Act that Biden voted for.’

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

___

You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.

If you wish to give a donation to help me, you can at:

Zelle:

sr7283@gmail.com

end

BIG Pharma drug and vaccine companies were near bankrupt so outdid themselves with the deadly Malone Bourla Bancel et al. deadly mRNA vaccines, they knew it was unsafe & deadly but did not care, $$$

was the aim, they helped create a fraud PCR COVID non-pandemic: Hedley Rees’s excellent piece deserves a read “Big Pharma companies were going broke, so they committed fraud of the SARS-CoV-2 Variety”

The latest reports from Slay News
Hospitals Report Surge in Emergency Room Admissions of Covid-Vaxxed ChildrenA world-renowned Danish cardiologist is raising the alarm over reports from hospitals of a dramatic surge in the number of Covid mRNA-vaccinated children being rushed to emergency rooms with life-threatening and fatal conditions.READ MORE
More States Move to Ban Bill Gates’ Fake ‘Meat’ Products from Food SupplySeveral U.S. states are now pushing back against Bill Gates’s “lab-grown” fake “meat” products amid growing concerns about the risks they pose to public health.READ MORE
Ex-CIA Chief John Brennan Complains After Losing Security Clearance, Claims Trump ‘Misrepresented Facts’Disgraced former CIA Director John Brennan is complaining to the corporate media after he was stripped of his security clearance by President Donald Trump.READ MORE
Freed Israelis Warn United Nations Helped Hamas Hide HostagesIsraelis who were recently released by Hamas have warned that the globalist United Nations (UN) helped the terrorist group hide the hostages during their captivity.READ MORE
Trump’s ICE Restores Use of Term ‘Illegal Alien,’ Drops ‘Noncitizen’President Donald Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has restored the use of “illegal alien” after the legal term was banned by the former administration.READ MORE
Supreme Court Rejects Republican-Backed Election Integrity CaseThe United States Supreme Court has rejected a request to hear an election integrity law case backed by Montana Republicans.READ MORE
Trump ‘Reassigns’ DOJ Official Who Pushed for Mar-a-Lago RaidPresident Donald Trump has “reassigned” several career Department of Justice (DOJ) officials to less influential positions, according to a new report.READ MORE
Trump Officials Begin Rounding Up Illegal Aliens for Deportation in ‘Sanctuary City’ DenverPresident Donald Trump’s federal immigration agents have begun rounding up illegal aliens in the “sanctuary city” of Denver, Colorado.READ MORE
Barron Trump’s Tailor Praises President’s ‘Fascinating’ and ‘Down-to-Earth’ SonPresident Donald Trump’s youngest child, Barron, has been at the center of a boom in media attention since it emerged that he played a key role in his father’s historic re-election victory.READ MORE
Trump Blasts ‘Nasty’ Leftist ‘So-Called Bishop’ Over ‘Boring and Uninspiring’ Inaugural Sermon, Demands ApologyPresident Donald Trump has blasted the “woke bishop” who delivered a “nasty” sermon filled with radical leftist talking points during Tuesday’s National Prayer Service.READ MORE
Trump’s DOJ Orders Federal Prosecutors to Investigate State and Local Officials Who Block Immigration EnforcementA new memo from President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice (DOJ) orders federal prosecutors across the country to begin investigating state and local officials who attempt to block the administration’s deportations and immigration enforcement.READ MORE
Davos Attendee Admits to WEF Elites That ‘Trump Won’ and Globalists LostAn attenddee at the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland admitted during a panel discussion that President Donald Trump has “won” the battle against globalists.READ MORE
Trump Threatens Russia with Sanctions & Tariffs If Putin Rejects Deal to End Ukraine WarPresident Donald Trump has sent a stern warning to Russia in a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding efforts to secure a deal to end the nation’s war with Ukraine.READ MORE

President Trump pardons pro-life protesters imprisoned by Joe BidenPresident Trump just pardoned the pro-life protesters who were imprisoned by Joe Biden’s weaponized DOJ using the FACE Act. Here’s the video: 🚨 BREAKING: President Donald J. Trump grants pardons to peaceful pro-life protesters prosecuted by the Biden administration over exercising their First Amendment rights. pic.twitter.com/XwzU4dEJt8 — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) January 23, 2025 I absolutely love these pardons. If …READ THE FULL REPORT
CNN Shakeup: Jake Tapper, Wolf Blitzer Change Times, Jim Acosta RemovedCNN made several changes to its lineup on Thursday, including giving longtime anchor Jake Tapper a new time slot and removing Jim Acosta from his morning show. Network veteran Wolf Blitzer is also being moved from broadcasting in the evening to the mornings as part of CNN’s shake up.Tapper’s show “The Lead” is being moved an hour later, and will …READ THE FULL REPORT
‘Everything Will Be Revealed’: Trump Signs Executive Order to Declassify JFK, MLK, RFK Assassination FilesPresident Trump on Thursday signed an executive order to declassify the assassination files for President John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy and Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, Texas in 1963.Robert F. Kennedy (former US Senator and US Attorney General) was assassinated in a hotel kitchen in Los Angeles in 1968.Martin Luther …READ THE FULL REPORT
Senate Advances Hegseth Nomination — 2 Republicans Vote ‘No’The United States Senate is poised to vote on the confirmation of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.The cloture vote passed 51-49 with two Republican Senators voting with Democrats, the usual culprits Collins and Murkowski.Hegseth, a 44-year-old Army National Guard veteran and former Fox News host, was nominated by President Donald Trump on November 12, 2024.During his confirmation hearing before …READ THE FULL REPORT
Watch: Haitian Migrant Suffers Meltdown During ICE ArrestA Haitian immigrant departed kicking and screaming as law enforcement arrested him and numerous other illegal immigrants in Boston, Massachusetts, this week.It’s all part of President Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan, which Immigration and Customs Enforcement is executing to the letter.During a ride-along, Fox News watched ICE arrest several illegal immigrants. Those arrests included MS-13 members, targets of Interpol Red …READ THE FULL REPORT

Saudi Arabia plans $600 billion in new US investment, trade over four years – EVOLREAD MORE… 
LATEST NEWS:
Watch: Trump Blasts Reporter to His Face: America Tired of ‘Horrible People’ Like You – EVOLRead more…Trump Picks Agent Who Protected Him from Would-Be Assassin to Lead Secret Service – EVOLRead more…‘Be a Good Democrat’… or Else: NYC Mayor Reveals Biden Admin Tried to Silence Him Over Influx of Illegals – EVOLRead more…S&P 500 Hits Fresh Record High as Stocks Extend Gains on Trump Optimism, AI Investments – EVOLRead more…Trump Set to Pardon Pro-Life Activist Targeted by the Biden Regime for Fighting Against Baby Murder – EVOLRead more…Here’s the Letter Joe Biden Left for Trump – EVOLRead more…Video Shows JD Vance’s First Moments Inside the Oval Office – EVOLRead more…Kamala Dumping Doug? Feels He’s ‘Dead Weight,’ Blamed for Loss – EVOLRead more…
..
New fire erupts in LA, burns 1000 acres in first hour, evacuation orders issuedAs firefighters across the Los Angeles area continue to combat wildfires that have raged for weeks, a new blaze has ignited near Castaic Lake, approximately 40 miles north of downtown Los Angeles. The Angeles National Forest reported the fire, named the Hughes Fire, at 1:47 PM Eastern Time. Fire crews quickly responded to the brush fire, which started near Lake …READ MORE
Trump shares content of letter Biden left him in the Oval Office’s Resolute DeskThe departing President Joe Biden left a thoughtful and gracious letter for his successor, President Donald Trump, continuing a tradition of outgoing presidents leaving messages for the incoming administration. The letter, left inside the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, reflects Biden’s hopes for the nation’s future and goodwill toward his successor. The letter, reads: “As I take leave of …READ MORE
ICE arrests 308 illegal criminals during first full day of Trump termTom Homan, the newly appointed border czar for the Trump administration, announced Tuesday that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had arrested 308 individuals classified as “illegal aliens” in operations that began shortly after President Donald Trump was sworn into office on Monday. “ICE is doing their job,” Homan stated, according to the New York Post. He emphasized that the initial …READ MORE
Trump responds to WOKE far-left BishopPresident Donald Trump issued a strong response to remarks made by Episcopal Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde during the National Prayer Service held at the National Cathedral on Tuesday. The interfaith ceremony, traditionally a non-political event, became a platform for what Trump described as “radical left” commentary targeting his administration’s policies. Bishop Budde, a prominent figure within the Episcopal Church, used …READ MORE

The Markets Are Ignoring Everything Trump Said To Focus Just On One Partial Quote

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 12:40 PM

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Davos got hard Trump treatment yesterday. He demanded that Saudi Arabia and OPEC lower oil prices to end the Ukraine war, and a rounded up $1 trillion in Saudi investments into the US despite those lower prices. Will Trump offer a US nuclear power and defence deal, and/or dealing with Iran, as quid pro quo? 

But Trump may have another motive to encourage OPEC to lower the cost of oil: “When oil prices come down, everything is going to be cheaper for the American people.” Shortly after his demand for lower oil prices, Trump turned to the Fed, demanding that rate cuts should follow immediately after oil. And interest rates should come down “a lot.” The dollar will probably not like that: even though Trump demanded that other central banks follow suit, he has less traction over them. 

The US president is certainly trying, though. Yesterday, Trump signed an executive order on digital financial technology. The decree primarily promotes private –and dollar-based– initiatives, but it also contains some sweeping actions against the efforts to develop central bank digital currencies, and not just in the US: “(v) including by prohibiting the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use of a CBDC within the jurisdiction of the United States.” 

While this executive order technically does not seem to ban the offshore use of CBDC by US banks or multinationals (but I am not a lawyer!), I would certainly not want to be the one trying this first. That’s of course an attempt to stop the BRICS’ initiative to substitute central bank digital currencies for US dollars in their international trade.

Trump also had a message for global manufacturers: “Come make your product in the US, and we’ll give you among the lowest tax rates in any nation. But if you don’t – which is your prerogative – you will simply have to pay a tariff” that puts money in our Treasury. 

However, markets were mostly in ebullient mood, ignoring everything Trump said to focus on one partial quote: “I’d rather not tariff China.” Just like he would rather not tariff Russia but says he will if they won’t come to the peace table. All Trump is saying is “we can do this the easy way or the hard way.” The market is either calling the US president’s bluff, or only ever understands the easy way.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan defied Trump’s call for lower interest rates, and hiked its policy rates by 25bp. Arguably, Japan is still Trump’s low-rates utopia, with the policy rate now at just 0.5%. That said, Japanese policymakers are more constructive on the inflation outlook: the Bank of Japan now sees CPI inflation of around 2.5% for FY2025. Governor Ueda recently also noted that real interest rates had become more negative, and today the Bank stated that they were expected to remain significantly negative. So, financial conditions are still accommodative, and this will continue to firmly support economic activity. The Bank of Japan concludes that if the forecasts presented in the January Outlook report materialise, policymakers will continue to raise policy rates and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation accordingly.

end

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

Canada

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0476 UP 60 BASIS PTS

USA/ YEN 156.31 UP 0.170 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2413 UP .0060 OR 60 PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4345 DOWN 0.0032 (CDN DOLLAR UP 32 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.46 PTS OR 0.70%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 365.63 PTS OR 1.86%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .36%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MIXED

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 365.63 PTS OR 1.86%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.46 PTS OR 0.70%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .36%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 26.89 PTS OR 0.07%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2777.40

silver:$30.89

USA dollar index early FRIDAY  morning: 107.48 DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS FROM  THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.984% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.234% UP 2 AND 7/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.194 UP 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.6677 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5255 UP 0 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  MID DAY FRIDAY

Euro/USA 1.0484 UP .0069 OR 69 basis points

USA/Japan: 156.42 UP 0.274 OR YEN IS DOWN 27 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7155 UP 7 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0042 OR 42 BASIS pts  to 1.4335

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.2478 (ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2511)

TURKISH LIRA:  35.69 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.234

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at  4.654% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.884 UP 2 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.272 DOWN 3  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2778,60

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.65

London: CLOSED DOWN 62.85 pts or 0.73%

German Dax : DOWN 16.60 pts or 0.08% 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 35.01 pts or 0.44%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.90 PTS OR 0.07%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 87.88 PTS OR 0.24%

WTI Oil price  74.51 11 EST/

Brent Oil:  78L22 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  98.25 ROUBLE UP 1 AND  60/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5255 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.7155 UP 7 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.361 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.065 UP 0 BASIS PTS

Euro vs USA 1.0489 UP 0.0074 OR 74 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR

British Pound: 1.2479 UP 0.01261 OR 126 basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.6305 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.231

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.93 DOWN 0.209 OR 21 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4345 DOWN .0032 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 32 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 74,72

Brent OIL:  78..52

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.626

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.851%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT  4.271

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.3281 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.985 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 107.91 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 35.68 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  97.80 UP 2 AND  7/100 roubles

GOLD  2,772.60 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 30.66 (3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 140.82 PTS OR 0.32%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 131.04 PTS OR 0.60%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.85 DOWN 0.17 PTS OR 1.13%

GLD: $ 255.65 OR UP 1.58 PTS OR 0.62%

SLV/ $27.91 PTS OR UP 0.17 OR 0.50%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 29.15 PTS OR 0.11%

end

UMich Inflation Expectations Soar As Democrats Panic

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 10:09 AM

In the final data for UMich Consumer Sentiment survey, inflation expectations (both short- and long-term) surged higher in January…

Source: Bloomberg

…but it’s all Democrats who see prices up 4.2% in the next year (while Republicans expect barely any change in prices)…

Source: Bloomberg

Concerns over the future trajectory of inflation were visible throughout the interviews and were tied to beliefs about anticipated policies like tariffs.

Consumers continued to spontaneously express motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future price increases, and robust auto and retail sales data suggest that consumers are indeed acting on these views.

Overall, this led to the headline sentiment index’s first MoM decline in six months

Source: Bloomberg

While assessments of personal finances inched up for the fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed, sentiment declines were broad based and seen across incomes, wealth, and age groups.

Despite reporting stronger incomes this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the pandemic recession.

END

2024 US Existing Home Sales Lowest Since 1995

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 10:30 AM

US Existing Home Sales rose for the third straight month in December (longest streak since late 2021), rising 2.2% MoM and up 9.3% YoY – the best annual shift since June 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Contract closings increased in three of four US regions, led by a nearly 4% rise in the Northeast

“Home sales in the final months of the year showed solid recovery despite elevated mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

However, despite the last rebound, for all of 2024, sales reached the lowest since 1995, when the US had about 70 million fewer people.

Source: Bloomberg

It marked the third straight annual decline, stretches only ever seen in the 2006 housing crisis as well as the recessions around the early 1980s and 1990s.

While sales volume declined, the median sale price, climbed 6% over the past 12 months to $404,400, reflecting more sales activity in the upper end of the market. That helped propel prices for the entire year to a record.

Source: Bloomberg

First-time buyers made up 31% of purchases in December, but NAR said the annual share was 24%, the lowest on record.

But, with a 3mo lag, mortgage rates have risen dramatically since, suggesting the euphoric renaissance of the US housing market will be short-lived once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Powell is in no mood to be cutting rates anytime soon (except for the pressure Trump will put on him).

Treasury yields are still elevated as investors brace for the cost of President Donald Trump’s policies and price pressures are cooling only somewhat. That’s projected to keep mortgage rates on average above 6% through at least 2027, according to some estimates.

Are homebuyers pulling for a recession to drag long-end yields lower and rescue affordability? Be careful what you wish for…

END

Battle Lines Drawn On Trump’s Border Crackdown

Thursday, Jan 23, 2025 – 08:55 PM

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump’s decision to launch his second term by declaring a national emergency at the U.S. border triggered an avalanche of opposition from Democratic governors, liberal members of Congress, and pro-migrant organizations vowing to challenge the constitutionality of his sweeping executive actions.

In Monday’s inaugural address, Trump pledged that “all illegal entry will immediately be halted.” The national emergency declaration includes provisions allowing for the deployment of additional military resources to finish the border wall, among other efforts.

We will have the military at the southern border, but there are other elements of the United States government that will be working throughout the country,” an incoming White House official said during a Monday morning call with reporters.

The executive action targeting children of illegal immigrants, along with a raft of border-related orders Trump signed to overhaul U.S. immigration and border security, attracted condemnation from Pope Francis, as well a host of left-leaning groups.  

In an interview Sunday on Italian television, Francis labeled the mass deportation of illegal immigrants “a calamity,” remarks signaling a return to the friction between the pontiff and Trump that marked the president’s first term in the White House.

This, if it’s true, will be a disgrace, because it will make poor unfortunates who have nothing foot the bill for [global] imbalances,” the pope said. “That doesn’t work. You don’t solve things that way. You just don’t.”

Francis, who has made illegal immigrant and refugee rights a top priority of his papacy, is the most prominent voice pushing back against Trump’s sweeping changes to U.S. immigration policy to implement mass deportations.

Other self-anointed U.S. leaders of the Trump resistance also denounced the stricter immigration policies and pledged not to follow the new federal birthright law while fighting it in court.

“That’s unconstitutional. We will not follow an unconstitutional order,” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who is eyeing a 2028 presidential run, told reporters Monday. Pritzker blasted Trump’s deportation plans, which reportedly could begin in cities across the country, including Chicago, as early as Tuesday.

They have not communicated with us. I’m reading the same things you are,” Pritzker continued. “This is indicative of what you’re going to see of the Trump administration for the next four years. It’s chaos.

Refugees International, a nonprofit advocacy organization, deemed Trump’s first moves to tighten immigration laws “extreme” and “an attempt to reverse America’s proud legacy and tradition of providing refuge to people forced to flee their homes.”

“Make no mistake, these orders are not just about stopping irregular migration – they also target long-standing legal migration pathways in ways that will endanger vulnerable people, undermine border security, and harm the U.S. economy,” the group said in a statement.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, another presumed 2028 presidential contender, declared himself the leader of the Trump resistance just days after the president’s victory. On Monday, however, he was far more restrained. After weeks of searing criticism over state and local officials’ response to the Los Angeles wildfires, Newsom is walking a careful line with federal disaster aid on the line and with Trump set to visit the state on Friday.

Newsom, in a post on X.com, stressed the need to find “common ground” and efforts to reach “shared goals.”

“Where our shared principles are aligned, my administration stands ready to work with the Trump-Vance administration to deliver solutions and serve the nearly 40 million Californians we jointly represent,” he wrote.

Undeterred by the angry opposition, Tom Homan, Trump’s incoming “border czar,” Monday defended Trump’s crackdown. Homan estimated that more than 10 million illegal immigrants have flooded into the country during the Biden administration and argued that Biden and outgoing U.S. officials have “blood on their hands” for the death of 22-year-old nursing student Laken Riley and other U.S. citizens slain by immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

Deportation raids targeting criminals will begin in major cities across the country Tuesday, Homan said, although he noted that the administration is reconsidering details of a planned Chicago ICE raid after a leak to the press about the operation occurred.

Earlier in the day, the Senate passed the Laken Riley Act on a bipartisan vote, with 12 Democrats joining Republicans to vote for the bill mandating the detention of more illegal immigrants charged with crimes. The measure now heads to the House, which passed a similar bill last month.

Gallego co-sponsored the Laken Riley bill but opposes ending birthright citizenship, another idea broached during the campaign and pressed by Trump on his first day in office.

“We need to address our broken immigration system and secure the border,” Gallego wrote on X.com, “But executive actions like this run contrary to the ideals of what makes our country great, and I will do all I can to fight this anti-American executive order.”

The battles lines over Trump’s expected revocation of birthright citizenship came into focus months ago. The immigration executive actions are a combination of campaign promises and policy ideas from the first term that never materialized.

Late Monday night, just hours after Trump signed the executive order ending birthright citizenship, the American Civil Liberties Union and several other immigration rights groups sued, accusing the administration of flouting the Constitution, congressional intent and longstanding Supreme Court precedent.

“Denying citizenship to U.S. born children is not only unconstitutional – it’s also a reckless and ruthless repudiation of American values,” Anthony Romero, executive director of the ACLU, said in a statement. “Birthright citizenship is part of what makes the United States the strong and dynamic nation that it is. This order seeks to repeat one of the gravest errors in American history, by creating a permanent subclass of people born in the U.S. who are denied full rights as Americans.”

The ACLU and the other groups are suing on the basis that ending the citizenship of children born to illegal immigrations violates the Fourteenth Amendment, which states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.”

We will not let this attack on newborns and future generations of Americans go unchallenged,” Romero added. “The Trump administration’s overreach is so egregious that we are confident we will ultimately prevail.

The incoming administration on Monday also shut down CBP One, an app that helped illegal immigrants and asylum seekers enter the United States.

House Homeland Security Committee chairman Mark Green applauded the flurry of immigration restrictions Trump imposed on his first day in office, deeming them a “restoration of American sovereignty at our borders.”

We’re going to take the handcuffs [off ICE] that were placed on them by the Biden administration, and we’re going to put them on the bad guys,” Homan added during an appearance on Fox News Monday night.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

end

US Government Back Door FISA Searches Are Unconstitutional: Federal Judge

Thursday, Jan 23, 2025 – 10:35 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The federal government’s method of searching through information incidentally collected on U.S.-based individuals violates the U.S. Constitution’s Fourth Amendment, a federal judge has ruled.

“To countenance this practice would convert Section 702 into precisely what Defendant has labeled it – a tool for law enforcement to run ‘backdoor searches’ that circumvent the Fourth Amendment,” U.S. District Judge LaShann Dearcy Hall said in the ruling, which was released on Jan. 21.

Government officials acquired information on the defendant, Agron Hasbajrami, a legal permanent resident who they arrested in 2011 and charged with providing material support to a terrorist organization. The information was gathered under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which lets authorities spy on people.

After Hasbajrami pleaded guilty, authorities disclosed that some of the evidence they used in the case was the fruit of information they obtained without a warrant under a FISA supplement called Section 207, which enables authorities to conduct surveillance on non-U.S. persons reasonably believed to be outside the United States.

The authorities had gathered some evidence on Hasbajrami as they targeted non-Americans believed to be located outside the country and other communications from Hasbajrami because, they said, they at one point mistakenly thought he was a non-U.S. person.

Hasbajrami moved to suppress the evidence. After the motion was denied, he pleaded guilty on the condition he be allowed to appeal the denial.

A federal appeals court in 2019 largely upheld the denial, finding that the government’s incidental collection of information on Hasbajrami as they carried out surveillance was lawful because the surveillance was lawful in the first place. The appeals court also remanded back to the district court the examination of whether the government’s so-called back door searches of the Section 702 database violated the Constitution.

Hall, in the new decision, concluded they did. While the government’s collection of the evidence was lawful, that doesn’t automatically mean the subsequent database searches were, she said.

“In other words, simply acquiring defendant’s communications under Section 702, albeit lawfully, did not, in and of itself, permit the government to later query the retained information,” Hall wrote.

“To hold otherwise would effectively allow law enforcement to amass a repository of communications under Section 702—including those of U.S. persons—that can later be searched on demand without limitation. But this approach undermines the purpose of the warrant requirement, which is ’to interpose a ‘neutral and detached magistrate’ between the citizen and ’the officer engaged in the often competitive enterprise of ferreting out crime,’” Hall added.

The judge denied the remaining portion of Hasbarjami’s motion, which asked for the government to hand over the evidence it collected.

A U.S. Department of Justice spokesperson declined to comment.

An attorney for Hasbarjami did not respond to a request for comment.

Government watchdogs hailed the ruling.

“This is a major constitutional ruling on one of the most abused provisions of FISA,” Patrick Toomey, deputy director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s National Security Project, said in a statement.

In light of this ruling, we ask Congress to uphold its responsibility to protect civil rights and civil liberties by refusing to renew Section 702 absent a number of necessary reforms, including an official warrant requirement for querying US persons data and increased transparency,” Andrew Crocker and Matthew Guariglia, with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, added.

President Donald Trump’s nominee for CIA director, John Ratcliffe, said during his recent confirmation hearing that Section 702 provides an “indispensable national security tool” and that he opposed requiring warrants for queries of the database.

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii, whom Trump selected as his national security adviser, also says she supports Section 702.

Section 702 has been repeatedly reauthorized by Congress, most recently in 2024.

Section 702 is set to expire on April 15, 2026.

END

RINO Defections Fail To Derail Hegseth As Senate Confirmation Advances

Thursday, Jan 23, 2025 – 05:40 PM

Via Headline USA,

The Senate advanced the nomination of Pete Hegseth as President Donald Trump’s defense secretary Thursday on a largely party-line vote, despite party-line opposition from Democrats and defections from two notorious RINOs who – like most in the Senate – voted in favor of confirming grossly incompetent Biden Defense secretary Lloyd Austin.

Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine predictably broke rank with the Republican majority to elevate the former Fox News star, distinguished military veteran, accomplished author and Harvard graduate.

The vote was 51-49, with a final vote on confirmation expected Friday.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., implored his colleagues to think seriously, “Is this the best man we have to lead the greatest military in the world?”

In what has become a standard part of the Democrat playbook, Hegseth has been subjected to salacious personal smear attacks, accusing him of heavy drinking and infidelity—both of which Democrats routinely engage in with impunity and which would not impugn his competence as a military leader if true. Hegseth has denied many of the allegations.

Mukowksi, in a lengthy statement, said that his behaviors “starkly contrast” with what is expected of the U.S. military. She also noted his past statements that women should not fill military combat roles.

“I remain concerned about the message that confirming Mr. Hegseth sends to women currently serving and those aspiring to join,” Murkowski wrote on social media.

Murkowski said behavior that Hegseth has acknowledged, “including infidelity on multiple occasions,” shows a lack of judgment.

“These behaviors starkly contrast the values and discipline expected of service members,” she said.

“Above all, I believe that character is the defining trait required of the Secretary of Defense, and must be prioritized without compromise,” she said.

Trump is standing by Hegseth, and the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee has dismissed the claims as factually inaccurate.

It will take a simple majority senators to confirm Hegseth’s confirmation. Most Republicans, who hold a 53-seat majority in the chamber, have signaled they will back the nominee, though Vice President JD Vance could be called in to break a tie vote.

“I am ironclad in my assessment that the nominee, Mr. Hegseth, is prepared to be the next secretary of defense,” the chairman, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said in a statement on the eve of voting. “The Senate needs to confirm this nominee as fast as possible.”

Wicker said he had been briefed a third time on the FBI background investigation into Hegseth. He said “the allegations unfairly impugning his character do not pass scrutiny.”

A new president’s national security nominees are often the first to be lined up for confirmation, to ensure U.S. safety at home and abroad. Already the Senate has overwhelmingly confirmed Marco Rubio as secretary of State in a unanimous vote, and it was on track to confirm John Ratcliffe as CIA director later Thursday.

During a fiery confirmation hearing, Hegseth swatted away allegations of wrongdoing one by one—dismissing them as “smears”—as he displayed his military credentials and vowed to bring “warrior culture” to the top Pentagon post.

Among the allegations levied against Hegseth is a claim that he sexually assaulted a woman at a Republican conference in California, which he has maintained was a consensual encounter.

A new claim emerged this week in an affidavit from a former sister-in-law who said Hegseth was abusive to his second wife to the point that she feared for her safety. Hegseth has denied the allegation. In divorce proceedings, neither Hegseth nor the woman claimed to be a victim of domestic abuse.

Schumer said Thursday that Hegseth was unqualified for the job because of his personal behavior, including drinking, and his lack of experience.

“One of the kindest words that might be used to describe Mr. Hegseth is erratic, and that’s a term you don’t want at DOD,” Schumer said.

“He has a clear problem of judgment.”

A Princeton- and Harvard-educated former combat veteran, Hegseth went on to make a career at Fox News, where he hosted a weekend show. Trump tapped him as the defense secretary to lead an organization with nearly 2.1 million service members, about 780,000 civilians and a budget of $850 billion.

Hegseth has promised not to drink on the job if confirmed.

Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, herself a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, has signaled her backing after initially opposing the choice. It is believed that Ernst herself may have been engaged in a soft campaign for the spot but that intra-party pressure and backlash led her to reconsider.

END

“Deportation Flights Begin”: White House Announces First Jumbo Jet Of Illegals Departs America

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 08:10 AM

The White House announced on X that mass deportation flights of illegal aliens have already started: “Just as he promised, President Trump is sending a strong message to the world: those who enter the United States illegally will face serious consequences.” 

On Thursday, ABC News confirmed that four military cargo planes—two C-17s and two C-130s—are being positioned for deportation flights of illegal aliens. 

The Trump administration is racing against time to secure the southern and northern borders to stop the flow of third-world migrants, including criminals, gang members, and even terrorists. There is also an urgent effort underway to restore national security, which has been alarmingly undermined by globalists in the Biden-Harris regime over the past four years. 

Recapping the week on the immigration front:

The ‘Trump Effect‘: Migrant encounters at border ports of entry have dramatically declined since Trump took office on Monday. Imagine that—the Biden-Harris regime had the ability all along to slow or stop the migrant invasion but chose not to, suggesting the crisis may have been intentional. The American people must hold the Democratic Party accountable at the ballot box in future elections for years of chaos. 

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have already been arresting criminal illegal aliens, rapists, murderers, serial offenders..

end

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VDH

VDH: The Addicted, Petty, And Hysterical Left

Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – 07:45 AM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Donald Trump won the 2024 election in part because the left’s hysterical style of attacking Trump no longer worked.

After a decade of this unhinged furor, it proved worthless in winning public support… and for two simple reasons.

One, after years of Russian collusion hoaxes, the laptop disinformation farce, and the warped lies about the “suckers” and “fine people on both sides”—the shrill left became predictable.

So, the bored public began tuning them out, switching channels, hitting the mute button, and pulling the plug.

Like the deleterious effects of inflation that eventually render a currency worthless, nonstop hectoring, hysterics, pontification, and distortion finally made all such criticisms of Trump mostly as valueless as 1930s German marks.

Second, the wearied public never heard reasoned counterarguments from the likes of a Rachel Maddow. Instead, on spec, she kept mouthing, “The walls are closing in” on Trump.

Joe Biden did not explain why his open border was a better idea than Trump’s closed one. He preferred mumbling about “semi-fascists!” and “ultra-MAGA!”

The Never Trumpers did not critique the Trump deficits. Instead, they hammered away that Trump was Hitler, or Mussolini, or Putin—or just a dangerous dictator or autocrat.

Angry retired generals never demonstrated why Trump was, in their view, an existential threat to democracy. Instead, they shouted nonstop in op-eds and interviews that he was a fascist, Nazi-like, no different from the guards at Auschwitz, a pathological liar, and should be summarily removed.

Worn-out voters began to understand these psychodramas were substitutes for substantive criticism or occasions for legitimate debate.

Indeed, the exhausted public finally concluded that the hysterics increased in direct proportion to the poverty of the charges.

So, what did ten years of such derangement achieve for the left?

Trump now has control of the White House and both houses of Congress operate under Republican majorities.

The Supreme Court is mostly conservative. Almost all of Trump’s issues—the border, immigration, the economy, foreign policy, and crime—poll well over 50 percent.

No matter, the left is still hammering away at the trivial and irrelevant—and remains paralyzed in furor and hysterics.

When Snoop Dogg performed for the Trump inauguration, Ann Navarro of The View, in racist fashion, called the African-American rapper “a trained seal.”

When Pete Hegseth went before the Senate for confirmation as Secretary of Defense nominee, Democrats asked almost nothing about nuclear strategy, recruitment shortfalls, or a paucity of artillery shells.

Instead, what followed were animated gotcha lectures about Hegseth’s prior adultery.

No sooner had Hegseth finished his successful audit than the left rounded up his former sister-in-law, now divorced from his brother.

A hardcore Democrat, she confessed she wanted his nomination rejected. She further claimed—with no evidence—that she had “heard” from his ex-wife that Hegseth was a wife-beater.

His former wife immediately denied the charges. She pointed to their prior divorce settlement that recorded neither had ever lodged such a complaint against the other.

Next, the left went after Elon Musk. Recently, he had finished an address by touching his heart and then extending his arm out to the crowd.

To the left, that greeting now became proof of a “Nazi salute.”

Yet in no time, the internet cited photos of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Elizabeth Warren all extending their stiff arms out in identical fashion to Musk.

We were next told by critics that Donald Trump was not technically president because he did not place his left hand on the Bible as he swore his presidential oath.

The Constitution, of course, demands no such act. But it does explicitly state that no religious test shall be required to hold public office.

During a National Prayer Service for newly sworn-in President Trump, the Episcopal bishop of Washington D.C., Mariann Budde, hijacked the sermon. She rebuked Trump—sitting right in front of her—because he supposedly had portrayed illegal aliens and transgendered children “in the harshest of lights.”

Budde later bragged that had she used the occasion to sandbag Trump with a “one-on-one conversation.”

She talked grandly of mercy, but not of the thousands of Americans who have been physically assaulted or attacked by illegal aliens, or tens of thousands of deaths due to illegally imported fentanyl, or the unfairness of open borders to legal immigrant applicants, or the suffering of our citizen poor when their social services are overwhelmed by some 12 million illegal entries of the last four years.

In sum, the left wants no debate because they know voters have rejected what they saw and suffered during the last four years of the Biden administration.

Forgetting nothing, learning nothing, like zombies, leftists keep screaming banalities.

But like addicts and their feel-good fixes, their hysterics only further turn off the public as they destroy themselves.

END

The King Report January 24, 2025 Issue 7416Independent View of the News
US Initial Jobless claims for the week ended January 18 are 223k.  220k expected, 217k prior.  Continuing claims (1/11) are now at the highest level in three years: 1.899m; 1.866m exp., 1853m prior.
 
@ces921: Another week, another loosening of financial conditions according to the Chicago Fed. Nearly back to record loosening conditions.  Does Foolsbee even look at his own data? Why is there any confidence that Fed policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target? https://t.co/PJJ9Ko0KS6
 
ABC: Netflix announced Wednesday its standard monthly subscription without advertisements will climb from $15.49 to $17.99, and a standard monthly subscription with ads will increase a dollar to $7.99. https://t.co/4j9GGlN8q0
 
Bonds declined sharply on Thursday morning.  Fangs were up a tad at the time; but the DJIA and DJTA were moderately higher.  The Nasdaq 100 declined moderately.  Gold was down sharply.
 
ESHs opened modestly lower on Wednesday night and continued to decline until they hit the daily low of 6101.50 at 4:16 ET.  ESHs then stair-stepped high until they exploded higher at 10:34 ET.  The spike higher is probably the result of professional option arbs buying stocks to hedge their sales of 0dte and other calls to traders, notably retail day traders.
 
After hitting a daily high of 6134.75 at 11:45 ET (on manipulation for 11:30 ET European close), ESHs did an A-B-C decline to 6124.75 at 12:40 ET.  ESHs then jumped to a new high of 6139.00 at 13:25 ET.  ESHs then fell to 6129.50 at the 14:15 ET VIX Fix.  The late afternoon rally took ESHs to minor new highs; a late manipulation forced ESHs to a daily high of 6154.00 at 16:00 ET.
 
DJT signed an EO that creates the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, and an EO that bans federal agency digital currencies.  After soaring early, cryptos lost their rallies after the signings.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJIA rallied sharply; the S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high.
Oil declined sharply due to DJT’s speech to Davos elites.
 
Negative aspects of previous session
USHs declined as much as 24/32.
The Nasdaq 100 was negative for most of the NYSE session.
The NY Fang+ Index only rallied a tad.
Cryptos sank after DJT signed the long-desire EO on cryptos.
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much more can Fangs rally?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6104.04
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low6118.73; 6074.67
 
Trump signed an EO that declassified the JFK, RJK, and MLK Jr. Assassination Files.
 
Addressing and lecturing the WEF at Davos via teleconference, DJT said the US is finished with all the green stuff and will aggressively produce oil and gas.  He guaranteed a supply of LNG to Europe.  DJT stated that he is instituting a “Revolution of Common Sense.”
 
DJT: “The Green New Deal was such a total disgrace how that was perpetrated … Remember when the world was going to end in 12 years. Remember that? Well, the 12 years has come and gone.”
https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1882474987938066865
 
DJT: “If you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff… My message to every business in the world is very simple: Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth… I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. … If the price came down, the Russia, Ukraine war would end immediately…  I’ve taken rapid action to reverse each and every one of these Radical Left policies. In particular, with immigration, crime & inflation. I’ve made it the official policy of the US: there are only two genders!…
    I’m also going to ask all NATO nations to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is what it should have been years ago… I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately
 
Trump wants interest rates to ‘drop immediately’ — after mortgage and credit card hike under Biden https://trib.al/TbMxTHx
 
DJT also advocated for free speech and the curtailment of government censorship.  He also admonished the EU for treating US companies “unfairly.”  He claimed China treats US companies better than the EU.
https://x.com/RSBNetwork/status/1882466613313917117
 
Trump tells Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan that big banks need to stop DEBANKING conservatives  https://x.com/BreitbartNews/status/1882468381548577100
 
Trump told the Davos glitterati that Putin is open to reducing nuclear weapon inventories.
 
BBG: The Trump administration is considering hedge fund veteran and China hawk Kyle Bass for a post at either the Treasury or Defense Department
 
Lawmakers question the FBI’s preparedness and response to New Orleans attack that killed 14 people – The special agent in charge of the FBI’s New Orleans field office, Lyonel Myrthil, had been vacationing in Europe during the attack and “took multiple days to return to New Orleans,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to bureau, citing “whistleblower disclosures.”…
   The FBI official who described the attack as “not a terrorist event,” Alethea Duncan, had been speaking in Myrthil’s place. Fox News reported last week that Duncan, an assistant special agent in charge in New Orleans, had been temporarily reassigned…
https://apnews.com/article/new-orleans-fbi-truck-attack-lawmakers-questions-1a09aee46269fa155ceb12777cbf67fa
 
@susancrabtree: Reporter to President Trump after the latest round of EO signings: Do you expect the Federal Reserve to listen to you – (on interest rates coming down)? Trump: Yeah. Following up, the reporter asks why?  “Because I think I know interest rates much better than they do,” Trump said before elaborating that he thinks Jerome Powell will listen to him and do the right thing.
 
DJT stated that he would talk to PE Powell “at the right time.”
 
@jasongoepfert: The S&P 500 cycled from a 2-month low to a record high in only 8 sessions, the 2nd-fastest reversal since 1928… the only reason 1928 is mentioned is because that’s when data begins. The only other faster reversal was in June 1998 (Japan, Asia, and Russia crises).
 
Fed Balance Sheet: -$2.31B; Reserves at Fed: -$194.405B
 
Today – The usual suspects will eagerly play for the Friday Rally.  Though Fangs/ Mag 7 look very tired, traders and investors want to be beaucoup long for results that will appear next week.  Barring profoundly negative news, the downside for stocks will be constrained by DJT delusions and coming Mag 7 results.
 
Expected earnings: HCA 6.12, AXP 3.04, T .50, VZ 1.09
 
Expected economic data: Jan S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.8, Services PMI 56.5, Composite 55.6; Jan UM Sentiment 73.2, 1-yr Inflation 3.2%, 5-10-yr Inflation 3.2%; Dec Existing Home Sales 4.2m
 
ESHs were -2.50; NQHs are -7.00; and USHs are +3/32 at 20:20 ET.
 
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5976; 100-day MA: 5844; 150-day MA: 5728; 200-day MA: 5599
DJIA 50-day MA: 43,582; 100-day MA: 42,801; 150-day MA: 41,844; 200-day MA: 41,066
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index (6118.71 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5367.17 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5941.72 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6067.81 triggers a sell signal
 
NY Post cover: ICE arrests irate Haitian gang member, murder and rape suspects in Boston: ‘F–k Trump, Biden forever!’  “Thank Obama for everything he did for me, bro!”..
https://nypost.com/2025/01/23/us-news/ice-arrests-irate-haitian-gang-member-murder-and-rape-suspects-in-boston/
 
Trump gives illegal alien deportation authority to ATF, U.S. Marshals and DEA agents – WSJ
 
Justice Department threatens to prosecute state and local officials who resist Trump’s federal immigration crackdown  https://t.co/l66CpfSLxg
 
DJT pardoned 23 pro-life activists that were imprisoned for violating the biased Safe Act.
 
Trump pardons former DC police officers convicted in death of man during deadly pursuit
Hylton-Brown was riding a moped without a helmet on a sidewalk Oct. 23, 2020, when Sutton tried to pull him over in an unmarked car… A chase ensued, reaching speeds of more than double the speed limit on residential streets, the Justice Department said. Hylton-Brown was eventually struck by a vehicle in an alley during the pursuit. He sustained severe head trauma and died two days later…https://t.co/82hsagzMkK
 
@charliekirk11: A lot of attention has rightly been paid to how Trump 2.0 is tougher, smarter, and more resolute after being impeached twice, raided, nearly assassinated, and persecuted by an unprecedented, insane legal assault. But those very same experiences have also emboldened a new generation of staffers now surrounding him inside the White House. Leaders like JD Vance, Sergio Gor, Stephen Miller, and others watched and lived through the same injustices perpetrated against President Trump.
       Impossible to explain how much those experiences have shaped everything you’re now seeing unfold at breakneck speed.
 
@laralogan: Jan 6 defendant Jeremy Brown called his girlfriend at 4:16am to tell her he was being moved. No one has heard from him since – so as of now, his attorney and his family has no idea where he is. His cell mate, another J6 defendant, was also told he was being moved. The White House needs to order the Marshalls to release these people now.
    Jeremy’s mom, Lisa, (in the blue sweater) wants her son back. He served his country with distinction & refused to snitch on the Oathkeepers. This man was targeted, subject to illlegal search & seizure & punished for exposing the two federal agents who tried to recruit him.
 
@paulsperry_: The eldest son of the Rev. Mariann Budd who scolded Trump at the national prayer service not to harm gays, transgenders, Muslims & illegal aliens, works for the former head of BARACK OBAMA’s campaign tech team in Chicago. Amos Budde contributes to Soros’ Swing Left PAC.
 
NYT: How Labeling Cartels ‘Terrorists’ Could Hurt the U.S. Economy
Isolating U.S. companies from cartel activities could be almost impossible given that the criminal groups operate in sectors like agriculture and tourism, leaving some American businesses vulnerable to sanctions…  https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/world/americas/mexico-cartel-terrorists-trade.html
 
@WallStreetMav: Carlos Slim is a Mexican billionaire worth over $70 billion. He is the largest shareholder in publicly traded shares of The New York Times. He also is known to have significant ties to the drug cartels in Mexico. You don’t become a billionaire in Mexico without being part of the network that is controlled and protected.  The NYT knows who their owners are connected to and are pushing the narrative that supports Carlos Slim’s business interests and his partners.
 
@greg_price11: Kristen Clarke was the official at Joe Biden’s DOJ responsible for persecuting pro-life activists who protested outside of abortion clinics
 
@EdWhelanEPPC: To get confirmed, Kristen Clarke lied to the Senate by denying that she had ever been arrested for committing a violent crime against anyone. She had in fact been arrested in 2006 after she attacked her then-husband with a knife, “deeply slicing his finger to the bone.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/radical-doj-civil-rights-head-kristen-clarke-lied-to-senate-during-confirmation-process/
 
Ex-Politico reporters reveal ‘cowardly editors’ buried bombshell Hunter Biden laptop stories, other scoops https://trib.al/yGQxwaM
 
The Poverty Cycle in Philadelphia
In 2019, 67.5% of School District of Philadelphia 3rd graders scored below proficiency on the literacy sections of Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) tests… 52% of Philadelphia’s adults are functionally illiterate, and 67% are low-literate, reading at a sixth- to eighth-grade level. Almost 40% of adult Philadelphians struggle to fill out a job application, to read doctors’ instructions on their medicines, and to help with their children’s homework
    26% of Philadelphians—between 377,000 and 413,000 people—live below the federal poverty level, and 12.2% live in deep poverty… https://www.achieve-now.com/poverty-cycle#
 
Philadelphia’s Democratic mayor responds to mockery for spelling Eagles wrong during speech
We don’t promise perfection, I’m so happy I never have,” Cherelle Parker told reporters…
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/philadelphia-democrat-mayor-responds-mockery-spelling-eagles-wrong-during-speech
 
Milwaukee CBS weather reporter Sam Kuffel fired after criticizing Elon Musk ‘Nazi salute’ on Instagram – “Dude Nazi saluted twice. TWICE. During the inauguration.”  She added, “You f–k with this and this man, I don’t f–k with you. Full stop.” Kuffel then posted a GIF from the hit TV show “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” along with the caption: “Screw that old b—h. He’s a Nazi.” https://trib.al/qjTAW2k

Breaking: President Trump PURGES Deep Staters from National Security Council, Orders Full Review of New Staffers

“National Security Advisor Mike Waltz promised and authorized a full review of NSC personnel,” says NSC spokesman.

Joe Tuzara, M.D. @TuzaraPost

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By Jamie White

January 24, 2025

President Donald Trump has removed all the White House National Security Council (NSC) detailees and ordered a full review of new incoming staff.

Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has fired 160 NSC staffers and is conducting a full review of new staff in a bid to retain those aligned with President Trump’s agenda.

“National Security Advisor Mike Waltz promised and authorized a full review of NSC personnel,” NSC spokesman Brian Hughes said a statement to the Associated Press.

160 national security staffers are sent home as the White House aligns its team to President Trump’s agenda

“It is entirely appropriate for Mr. Waltz to ensure NSC personnel are committed to implementing President Trump’s America First agenda to protect our national security and wisely use the tax dollars of America’s working men and women. Since 12:01 pm on Monday personnel reviews and decisions based on the evaluations are being made.”

The sidelined NSC detailees are career civil servants from various law enforcement, military, and intelligence agencies and departments across the federal government such as the CIA, FBI and the Pentagon.

Mike Waltz to Clean Out Deep Staters from National Security Council: ‘We’re Taking Resignations at 12:01’ on January 20

US Representative Mike Waltz, Republican of Florida, speaks during a hearing of the House

Waltz earlier this month said the Trump team has identified the individuals they want out of the national security agencies and they would be quickly dealt with as soon was President Trump was sworn in.

“Everybody is going to resign at 12:01 on January 20,” Waltz said. “We’re working through our process to get everybody their clearances and through the transition process now. Our folks know who we want out in the agencies, we’re putting those requests in, and in terms of the detailees they’re all going to go back.”

The Trump administration is looking into the social media activity, political contributions and voting patterns of prospective NSC staff to ensure they are aligned with President Trump’s national security priorities.

From the AP:

Trump team is questioning civil servants at National Security Council about commitment to his agenda

Incoming senior Trump administration officials this month also had questioned some career civil servants about who they voted for in the 2024 election, their political contributions and whether they have made social media posts that could be considered incriminating by Trump’s team, a person familiar with the matter told the AP. That person spoke on the condition of the anonymity to discuss the sensitive personnel matter.

Waltz in a recent interview with Breitbart News said that he wanted the NSC to be staffed by personnel who are “100 percent aligned with the president’s agenda.”

President Trump’s careful review of NSC officials is warranted given that in 2019 anti-Trump military officer Alexander Vindman, who was sitting on the NSC at the time, leaked a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussing the Russia collusion hoax, which led to the first Democrat-led impeachment witch hunt against the 45th president.

Alexander Vindman condemned himself in his impeachment testimony

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman at the hearing.

READ MORE: Marines Arrest Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman Who Testified Against President Trump

This also comes after President Trump on Tuesday pulled the security clearances of the 51 former intelligence officials who penned a letter in the days leading up to the 2020 presidential election falsely claiming the Hunter Biden laptop story was “Russian disinformation.”

READ MORE:

The Hammer of Justice Has Come! President Donald Trump Revokes Security Clearances of Former NSA Advisor John Bolton and ALL 51 ‘Spies Who Lied’ that Hunter Biden laptop was Russian fake

President Donald Trump Outlines Plan to Dismantle the Deep State

President Trump Cryptically Reveals Ongoing Deep State Purge at Campaign Event, says White Hat Source

TREASON: Pentagon Held Secret Meetings to Plot How to Respond to Controversial Direct Orders from President Trump

SEE YOU ON MONDAY

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