FEB 18//GOLD CLOSED UP $43.00 TO $2930.00/SILVER ALSO HAD A STELLAR DAY UP $0.56 TO $32.77/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $2.95TO $983.55/WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $0.05 TO $986.75//ZERO HEDGE ASKS MUSK TO AUDIT FORT KNOX WHICH WILL CERTAINLY BE INTERESTING//DISINTIGUISHED MICHAEL HUDSON OF THE HUDSON INSTITUTE INTERVIEWED ON GOLD//GOLD COMMENTARY FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//CHINA;S BELT INITITATE FALTERING BADLY//EUROPE SCRAMBLES AS TRUMP/VANCE TELL THEM TO DEFEND THEMSELVES//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: THIS SATURDAY 6 HOSTAGES ARE TO BE RELEASED BUT MORE CARAVANS ARE TO BE INTRODUCED/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//BENGHAZI AFFAIR REVEALED//USAID SHIPPED HUGE SUPPLY OF USA 100 DOLLAR BILLS TO THE TALIBAN///COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/SLAY NEWS ETC..//ELON MUSK DISCOVERS HUGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE RECEIVING BENEFITS DESPITE THEIR AGE BEING OVER 300 YRS??//4,7 TRILLION DOLLARS ISSUED BY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION CANNOT BE TRACED//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..
072 C GOLDMAN 8 118 H MACQUARIE FUT 68 132 C SG AMERICAS 1 190 H BMO CAPITAL 228 323 C HSBC 300 323 H HSBC 9 332 H STANDARD CHARTE 8 363 C WELLS FARGO SEC 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 263 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 203 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 667 661 C JP MORGAN 661 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 139 32 690 C ABN AMRO 29 11 700 C UBS 333 709 C BARCLAYS 10 709 H BARCLAYS 4 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 12 737 C ADVANTAGE 18 880 C CITIGROUP 2 880 H CITIGROUP 21 905 C ADM 70 1
TOTAL: 1,556 1,556
JPMorgan stopped (received) 01574contracts/3655
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEBRUARY/2024. CONTRACT: 1556 NOTICES FOR 155600 OZ 4.839 TONNES
total notices so far: 69,477 contracts for 6,947,700 Oz (216.102 tonnes)
FOR FEB.
SILVER NOTICES: 52 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.260 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4224 for 21.120 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $43.60INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.06 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.56 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 438.994MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED331 CONTRACTS TO 169,385 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0,36 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1576 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY COMEX TRADING/RAID AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S RISE IN PRICE BY 36 CENTS. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY COUPLED WITH ANOTHER NEW MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 1821 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.00 DOLLAR MARK. WE HAVE A HUGE CONTANGO IN SILVER SPOT VS FRONT FEB OF AROUND 95 CENTS AND A LEASE RATE OF 6%. WE HAD A STRONG 1245 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 1821 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1576 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING SESSION/
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: A HUGE 1821 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.36 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1674 CONTRACTS WE HAD A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE
WE HAD A STRONG 1245 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 89 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.44 5MILLION OZ OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB ADVANCES TO 21.720MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ MEGA GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1821 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 90 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAYS, total 9297 contracts: OR 46.485 MILLION OZ (845 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 46,485 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 46.485 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 331 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1245 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 10.105 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE,FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.445 MILLION OZ TO LONDON//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 21.720 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE 1). A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1576 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUGE 1576 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//MONSTER FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. HOWEVER THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCES FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. ZERO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY WITH THE SLIGHT LOSS IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1821) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE
WE HAD 52 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.260 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9652 OI CONTRACTS TO 528,641 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A STRONG SIZED 2291 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (9652 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $28,80 IN PRICE FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 184.40 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP//27,800 OZ (.864ONNES)
/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 218.9580TONNES +18.4527
= 237,4107TONNES.
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $28.80 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5152 OI CONTRACTS (16.024 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE FRONT FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4500 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 534,126
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5152 CONTRACTS WITH 9,652 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4500 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5152 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1228 CONTRACTS ISSUED.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4500 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 9652 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5152 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB 184.40 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 278 CONTRACTS FOR 399,700 OZ( 0.864TONNES). AND THEN WE ADD OUR 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS OF 18.4527 TONNES//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 237,4109TONNES
.
NEW STANDING FOR FEB ADVANCES TO:
216.227TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY (INCLUDING FEB 13, 12.12TONNES QUEUE TUMP + .18,4527 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR
EQUALS 237.4107TONNES
//NEW STANDING FEB: 237,4107 TONNES WHICH IS THE HIGHEST EVER GOLD STANDING FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH. AND FOR ANY COMEX MONTH.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE FRIDAY WITH LITTLE SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WITH OUR1) $28,80 PRICE LOSS WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 5152 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ) ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR RECORD NUMBER OF GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1228 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 48,427CONTRACTS OF 4,842,700OZ OR 150.63 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4084 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 139,74TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 150,63DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.24% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 150.63TONNES ISSUANCE
FEB: 139,74 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 331 CONTRACTS OI TO 169,483 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1245 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 475 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1245 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 331 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1245 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1576CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 7.88 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.36 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.86 PTS OR 0.26%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 252,16 PTS OR 1.12%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 194.14 OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.65%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2540CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWNTO 7.2828/ Oil UP TO 71.49dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.31Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVELEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED9652 CONTRACTS TO 528,641 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.80 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING/RAID. WE LOST SOME NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. BUT AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, THE DAMAGE WAS NOT AS SEVERE AS WE HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4500) .
THE CME ANNOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT, ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES
AND SO FAR IN FEBRUARY: WE HAVE HAD FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKSNOW TOTALLING 18.4527TONNES!. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY.
THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5152 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED RAID AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO 10% AS GOLD IN LONDON IS NOW EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK INCLUDING WITH OUR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCES AND STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION. FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY ISSUED A STRONG 1228 CONTRACT ANNOUNCEMENT (FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING).
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 16+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST FRIDAY’S 197 , 199, 2001, 202, 203 , 204 ,205 206, 207 208 AND TODAY’S 209, AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP CAME INTO OFFICE MONDAY NOON JAN 20. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4500 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /FEB 4500& ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4500 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2861 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4500 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 9652 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.80 FOR THURSDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE MAJOR PART OF THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SPREADERS!
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 1228 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S OVER A FEW WEEKS AGO, THE FED WAS EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE AS FEW LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. A HUGE RAID WAS ORDERED BY THE FED WITH END OF THE MONTH TRADING ( MONDAY TRADING// JAN 27) AS THE GOLD PRICE GOT HAMMERED A BIT WITH COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY. AS YOU SAW WITH LAST TUESDAY’S TRADING// JAN 28 IT HAS NO EFFECT ON GOLD AS IT SHOT UP AGAIN IN PRICE AND IT CONTINUED TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LONDON’S ANNOUNCEMENT LAST THURSDAY THAT THEY WERE OUT OF PHYSICAL GOLD SURELY HELPED TO PROPEL GOLD’S METEORIC RISE IN PRICE THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS PROPELLING IT THROUGH THE 2800 DOLLAR BARRIER TO THE LEVEL IT IS NOW TRADING READY TO CLOSE IN ON THE 2900 DOLLAR LEVEL.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER 2024
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON DEC. 27, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR//MONTH END SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE DECEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING AND AGAIN WITH JANUARY OPTION EXPIRY MONTH. HALF WAY THROUGH THE JANUARY COMEX MONTH, THE CROOKS ISSUED FIVE CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE. ALL OF THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WERE USED IN AN ATTEMPT TO THWART GOLD TRADING ESPECIALLY BEFORE TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE FED MUST REDUCE ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT OF 79 TONNES. THEY FAILED MISERABLY AS GOLD SKYROCKETED IN PRICE THIS WEEK AND NOW TO ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS IN USA DOLLAR TERMS AND OTHER CURRENCIES.
STANDING FOR GOLD FOR THE PAST 4 PLUS YEARS:
// WE HAD A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (237,4107 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE FEB DELIVERY MONTH AND THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH.
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025: 113.30 TONNES
FEB: 2025: 237.4107 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 50 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY: 218,9580 TONNES OF GOLD+ + 18.4527 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR=//NEW TOTAL STANDING 237,4107 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING/FEB CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $28.80//BUT WERE MODERAELY SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY AS THEY WERE TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S RISE AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM ALSO RISING. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN SLOWING THEIR DERIVATIVE LOSSES IN PRECIOUS METAL BETS WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY JAN 28 AT THE COMEX. OUR T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS THIS 2ND WEEK OF FEB, WERE DISTORTING OPEN INTEREST AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE, BUT IS HAVING NO EFFECT ON GOLD’S METEORIC RISE IN PRICE. PRIOR TO FRIDAY . THE RAID ON FRIDAY WAS NEEDED TO QUELL PRICE RISES IN GOLD AND SILVER,. SILVER IS A BIG HEADACHE FOR OUR CROOKS AS THE PHYSICAL METAL IS BASICALLY UNATTAINABLE. DERIVATIVE LOSSES ON BOTH GOLD AND SILVER ARE HUGE!
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR RECORD NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD)
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER AND JANUARYTRADING
DECEMBER MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK!
75 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 6 FOR 14.6836 TONNES A NEW RECORD. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK // JANUARY MONTH!!
LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED THEIR FIRST ISSUANCE A MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR OUR TWO EARLY JANUARY EX FOR RISK: 5.7533 TONNES. THEN MERCILESSLY THEY CONSUMMATED FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS MONTH 85 EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (JAN 17) FOR 8500 OZ OR .2649 TONNES OF GOLD. THEN TO MY HORROR THEY ISSUED THEIR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS MONTH (JAN 22) FOR A MONSTER 5000 CONTRACTS OR 5,000,000 OZ.(15.562 TONNES).NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED THEIR FIFTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST NIGHT FOR 500 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 50,,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. REMEMBER THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON WHICH IS TOTALLY ASININE!! THUS FOR THE 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED THIS MONTH TOTALS 23.134 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS BRINGS US TO , JAN 25 WHERE THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS SIXTH MAJOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6454 CONTRACTS FOR 645,400 OZ OR 20.074 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED ISSUANCE IN NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AT 6, AND FOR NEW TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY: 43.208 TONNES!!! AND A NEW RECORD FOR ISSUANCE.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY:
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN A FEW NIGHTS AGO, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WILL BE ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WILL NOW BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGHT THE MONTH. FOR MONDAY FEB 17.ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED.
FINAL STANDING GOLD/COMEX FOR JANUARY
FINAL STANDING FOR JAN: 70.102TONNES + 43.206 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 113.310 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH) A NORMAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR A JANUARY IN EARLIER TIMES HAS BEEN GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 TONNE OF GOLD. HOWEVER THESE PAST 4 YEARS QUEUE JUMPING HAS BEEN VERY PRONOUNCED AND THUS STANDING INCREASES DRAMATICALLY.
TOTAL INITIAL DELIVERIES FEB GOLD TRADING
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR TOTAL OF 32.95 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (184.40TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SIZED 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27,800OZ. NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 218,9580 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 18.4527TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTALS STANDING 237,4107TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $28,80
WE HAD 2291 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5152 CONTRACTS OR 515,200 OZ (16.024ONNES)
1.392 TONNES TOTAL DEALER AND CUSTOMER; 4.968 tonnes
No of oz served (contracts) today
1556 notice(s) 155,600 OZ 4.839TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
918contracts 91800 OZ 2.855TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
69,477 notices 6,947,700oz 216.102 ONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 1
i) Brinks dealer 114,971.98oz
3576 KILOBARS
total dealer 114,971.98oz
3.576 TONNES
we have 1customer deposits:
I ENTRY;
1 ENTRY i) INTO MANFRA: 44,782.655
1.392 TONNES TOTAL DEALER AND CUSTOMER; 4.968 tonnes
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withdrawals: 0
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adjustments:2/comex is in chaos
first 2 customer to dealer
a) Brinks 163,456.952 oz
b)Malca 12, 820.249 oz
thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB
FEB HAD A LOSS OF 3377 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2474. WE HAD 3655 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 278 CONTRACTS OR A 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP OR 0.864 TONNES,.THURSDAY, FEB 13 WE WITNESSED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED AT THE COMEX AT 12.12 TONNES
MARCH HAD A LOSS OF 792CONTRACTS UP TO 15,012
APRIL HAD A LOSS OF 5982 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 387,749CONTRACTS
We had 1556 contracts filed for today representing 155,600 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 897notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1556contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for FEB /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (69,477x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB.(2474CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1556 x 100 oz per contract) equals 7,039,500 OZ OR 218.958TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK 18.4527 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 237.4107 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month: No of notices filed so far (69,477 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of FEB ( 2474 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1556 x 100 oz) which equals 7,0395,00z (218.9580TONNES + 18,4527 tonnes ex for risk PRIOR = 237.4107onnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.: 237,4107 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR AND THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY FEBRUARY AND THE HIGHEST FOR ANY MONTH FOR THAT MATTER IN COMEX HISTORY!!
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 154.65million oz/380,076million or 40.78%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 97.072MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 380.076million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR FEBRUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB /2025 OI: 172 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 79 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 89 CONTRACTS OR WE EXPERIENCED A 445,000 OZ EXCHANGE QUEUE JUMP AS THESE GUYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AT THE COMEX TRYING TO OBTAIN PHYSICAL SILVER.
MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 29816CONTRACTS DOWN TO 81,432HE FRONT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH ALSO IS NOT DECLINING MUCH AND WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A HUMDINGER OF A DELIVERY MONTH FOR MARCH.
APRIL SAW ANOTHER LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 413
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 2863CONTRACTS UP TO 65,477CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 52 or 0.260 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 128,233 huge//
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4224x 5,000 oz = 21.120 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (172) and the number of notices served upon today (52)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB 2025 contract month: 4224 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB(172)minus number of notices served upon today (52)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the FEB contract month equating to 21.720MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 21.720 million oz which is huge for a non active delivery month of February
There are 97.072 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
0 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS/
FEB 18/ WITH GOLD UP $43.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.06TONNES
FEB 13/ WITH GOLD UP 11.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.901 TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.50TONNES
FEB 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $3,40ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 10 WITH GOLD UP $10.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 7 WITH GOLD UP $10.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 5 WITH GOLD UP $27.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.05 TONNES
FEB 4 WITH GOLD UP $25.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.77 TONNES
JAN 31 WITH GOLD UP $4.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
JAN 30 WITH GOLD UP $40.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.34 TONNES
JAN 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.04 TONNES
JAN 28 WITH GOLD UP $23.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //
JAN 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $36.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///
JAN 24 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
JAN 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.36 TONNES
JAN 22 WITH GOLD UP $15.15 ON THE DAY; MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.66 TONNES
JAN 20 WITH GOLD UP $35.30 ON THE DAY; MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 10.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.12 TONNES
/JAN 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.78 TONNES
JAN 16 WITH GOLD UP $24.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 15 WITH GOLD UP $24.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 14 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.53 TONNES
JAN 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A DEPOSIT OF 5.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.82 TONNES
JAN 10 WITH GOLD UP $17.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 9 WITH GOLD UP $13.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 8 WITH GOLD UP $5.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD::A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.08 TONNES
JAN 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
JAN 2 WITH GOLD UP $29.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 31 WITH GOLD UP $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.52 TONNES
DEC 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.80 TONNES
DEC 26 WITH GOLD UP $17.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 24 WITH GOLD UP $6.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.95 TONNES
DEC 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $13,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 16.66 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.40 TONNES
DEC 20 WITH GOLD UP $29,75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.74 TONNES
DEC 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $45.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.85 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
DEC 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES
DEC 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 863.06TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
FEB 18WITH SILVER UP $.56//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : NO CHANGES AT THE SLX/. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 438.994MILLION OZ
FEB 14WITH SILVER UP $.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.593 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 437.401 MILLION OZ
FEB 12WITH SILVER UP $.01 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 8 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 437.401 MILLION OZ
FEB 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 428.66 MILLION OZ
FEB 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 428.66 MILLION OZ
FEB 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.17 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 12.383 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 430.39 MILLION OZ
FEB 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.45 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.285 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 442.773 MILLION OZ
FEB 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.81 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.550 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.331 MILLION OZ
FEB 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.81 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.550 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.331 MILLION OZ
FEB 3 WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.550 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.331 MILLION OZ
JAN 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.369 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.881 MILLION OZ
jAN 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.76 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.003 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.249 MILLION OZ
jAN 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.252 MILLION OZ
jAN 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.34 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.821 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. /
jAN 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $.61 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.395 MILLION OZ
JAN 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $.21 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.395 MILLION OZ
JAN 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.738 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.035 MILLION OZ
JAN 22 WITH SILVER UP $.08 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.043 MILLION OZ
JAN 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $.09 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.315 MILLION OZ
JAN 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $.49 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.315 MILLION OZ
JAN 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ
JAN 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.79 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.745 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.863 MILLION OZ
JAN 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.228 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.218 MILLION OZ
JAN 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.637 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.990 MILLION OZ
JAN 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459,353 MILLION OZ
JAN 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.484 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 7 WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 6 WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 3 WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.709 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.837 MILLION OZ
JAN 2 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.616 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.128 MILLION OZ
DEC 31 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 460.512 MILLION OZ
DEC 27 WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 461.651 MILLION OZ
DEC 24 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 23 WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.747 MILLION OZ
DEC 20 WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/////A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.597 MILLION OZ
DEC 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.414 MILLION OZ
DEC 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ
DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 438,994 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
END
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
In an attempt to manage economic outcomes, governments pursuing GDP growth end up with economic and currency destruction. No wonder gold prices are soaring!
If ever proof of the incompetence of modern economists and the destructive forces that they unleash on an economy were needed, look no further than the idiocy of promoting “growth” in GDP by deficit spending. The error comes from confusing an increase in the quantity of credit in the economy directed by the state with the economic progress endemic to unfettered free markets. All economic history and experience scream at us that minimal government and zero economic intervention are the keys to economic success. And the greater the state’s intervention and control, the worse the outcome.
However, the state controls the statistics and rarely is this more disastrous in its consequences than a government expansion of credit by running budget deficits. To illustrate the point, let me pose a question: how does the government promote growth? Answer: by running a large budget deficit. Now another question: how do you destroy an economy? Answer: by running a large budget deficit.
The quantity of credit in an economy is defined by GDP, which is the sum total of all recorded eligible transactions in a given period, usually annualised. What it doesn’t tell you is the economic value of those transactions.
As a general rule when consumers spend their earnings, they choose goods and services in a competitive environment. By promoting competition between producers for their business, a continual improvement of value, quality, and useful technology is set in train. This is economic progress and is unmeasurable. The expansion of credit for these purposes, so long as it is earned and not created purely for the purpose of spending, leads to a healthy functioning economy where the value of credit generally remains stable.
But if the state intervenes by causing an expansion of credit, the deployment of that credit is unproductive and therefore not economically progressive. And if this credit is not backed by consumer savings detracting from immediate consumption, its value is diluted — evidenced by an increase in the general level of prices as the credit is spent into the economy.
Therefore, the answers to the two questions above, which are seemingly contradictory are shown to be true. By deploying credit in the form of a budget deficit not covered by an increase in consumer savings, a government pursuing GDP growth creates an economic illusion. Until, that is, the debasement of the currency (which is simply credit itself) kicks in. And it is the destruction of credit’s value which destroys an economy.
There you have it. Now let us see how the growth myth is destroying the US economy. The table below is based on the most recent Congressional Budget Office forecasts for the US economy, starting with the actual numbers for 2024.
According to the CBO, the increase in nominal GDP in the current fiscal year to end-September 2025 is expected to be 4.54% (Column 1, line 5). At the same time, the budget deficit is 6.35% of GDP. To establish what the private sector contributes to GDP, we must subtract 6.35% (the deficit) from total GDP. Therefore, while the government deficit “grows” the economy by 6.35%, private sector nominal GDP is contracting: 4.54—6.35 = -1.82%.
We must now make an allowance for CPI inflation. We have no idea what the pace of currency debasement will be, but let’s take the current approximate rate of CPI’s annual increase at about 3%. Therefore, in “real” terms, the private sector is contracting by 4.82% (the sum of -1.82% and – 3%) in the current fiscal year on the CBO’s own estimates.
We can do similar calculations for the next few years, and these are shown in the table assuming that the CPI continues to rise at a steady 3% per annum. And we can see that on these figures, private sector GDP will also contract by between 4.41% and 5.19% into fiscal 2027. The four years taken together mean that the decline in private sector activity in simple arithmetic amounts to a total decline in real terms of 19.1%, a slump in any language. This compares with an official forecast of 4.13% real growth for the economy between now and end-September 2027.
This creates two further problems. The first is that due to the contraction of private sector activity, tax revenues will fall short of those anticipated, and the likely unemployment resulting from a private sector slump will mean higher welfare costs. This combination will lead to yet higher budget deficits than those anticipated, concealing an even deeper private sector crisis. Furthermore, currency debasement (inflation) will be greater for longer due to the higher budget deficits.
The second major problem is that the debt to GDP ratio will rise not just because of increasing government debt but because “real” statistical GDP will be stagnating or even contracting. Consequently, the debt mountain will be growing at an even faster pace than the economy.
In other words, a vicious debt trap is being brought forward.
Therefore, being based on the CBO’s guesswork, even the calculations above underestimate the dangers of this obsession with meaningless growth. Higher than expected budget deficits, for the reasons stated above, are driving the rate of currency debasement, leading to yet higher funding costs than those that would arise from a debt trap alone. Already, there are worrying signs that official inflation numbers are rising faster than the 3% assumed in the table above. As interest rates and bond yields soar, the credit bubble doesn’t just deflate — it implodes.
Macroeconomists, central bankers, and politicians everywhere are pursuing the growth illusion, ignorant of the consequences. The same catastrophe is faced by the other major western currencies: euro, yen, and pound.
Just chuck more stimulus in the mix, they say, and it will come right in the end. No it won’t, which is why are all these currencies are declining in value at an accelerating pace measured in gold, as the chart below demonstrates
.
AGNICO EAGLE EARNINGS
AGNICO EAGLE REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2024 RESULTS – RECORD ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION AND FREE CASH FLOW; BALANCE SHEET STRENGTHENED BY FURTHER DEBT REDUCTION; UPDATED THREE-YEAR GUIDANCE
YET THEY RAID THE STOCK BY OVER 5%
Note: company forecasts 1.32 per share usa for next quarter!
Agnico Eagle Mines reported strong financial and operational results for Q4 and full year 2024. The company achieved record annual gold production of 3,485,336 ounces at production costs of $885 per ounce and total cash costs of $903 per ounce.
Key financial highlights include record quarterly adjusted net income of $632 million ($1.26 per share) and strong free cash flow of $570 million. The company significantly strengthened its balance sheet by reducing net debt by $1.3 billion during 2024, ending the year at $217 million.
The company’s gold mineral reserves increased by 0.9% to 54.3 million ounces. Looking ahead, production guidance for 2025-2027 remains stable at 3.3-3.5 million ounces annually. Total cash costs for 2025 are forecast between $915-965 per ounce.
The company continues to advance key projects including Detour Lake, Odyssey, and Hope Bay, with increased capital expenditures planned for 2025 to support future growth initiatives.
ZACKS
Agnico Eagle’s Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates in Q4
Zacks Equity Research February 14, 2025
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM Quick QuoteAEM – Free Report) reported adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share for fourth-quarter 2024, up from 58 cents in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 per share.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The company generated revenues of $2,223.7 million, up nearly 26.6% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,097.2 million.
Record Q3 results: $2.2B revenue (+31%), $1.26B adjusted EBITDA (+64%), $700M returned to shareholders, net debt reduced to $490M
Gold production: 863,000 oz at $921/oz cash costs; on track for full-year guidance of $8.75-$9.25/oz
Operational highlights: Record throughput in Nunavut and Detour; Odyssey mine development on schedule
Challenges: Planned shutdowns at Canadian Malartic and LaRonde; labor costs expected to rise 3%, consumables 5%
Outlook: 76% of full-year production achieved YTD; promising exploration results at East Gouldie and Hope Bay
Last Updated: 11/01/2024, 09:16 AM
END
“Let’s Do It”: Rand Paul Supports Fort Knox Physical Audit After ZeroHedge Suggestion Goes Viral
Sunday, Feb 16, 2025 – 02:35 PM
One of the biggest questions over the past 50 years is whether the gold at Fort Knox, Kentucky is really there, or if it’s been plundered.
What we do know is that the last ‘audit’ of America’s gold stash was conducted on Sept. 23, 1974, when the US Treasury opened just one of its 15 vaults at Fort Knox so politicians and reporters could swarm the site for a two-hour photo-op with roughly 6% of the alleged amount held. Adding to the complete farce, none of the bars being passed around for the cameras were matched to a serial number, assayed or tested for purity, or even verified as US holdings – as foreign countries have previously stored their gold at Fort Knox as well.
Since then there has been no independent verification of the roughly 4,580 metric tons supposedly held by the Treasury outside of bullshit annual ‘vault seal checks’ that don’t actually analyze the gold (oh, and they’ve ‘lost‘ seven of those) – various efforts have been raised to audit Fort Knox – most recently in 2021, when Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced (now-dead) legislation to audit America’s gold holdings with a full assay, inventory, and audit of all US gold – which would include a full account of gold transactions undertaken by the US government.
In 2010, former Libertarian Rep. Ron Paul called for an independent audit of Fort Knox.
“It’d be nice for the American people to know whether or not the gold is there,” Paul said at the time.
Activate Agent Big Balls
With Elon Musk’s team at DOGE – including a gent who goes by the name “Big Balls” – investigating government-wide waste, fraud and abuse, we thought it might be helpful to point them towards Fort Knox…
h
x.com/zerohedge/status/1890856057368347006
The suggestion immediately went viral on X, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) indicating he’s on board – replying to Musk with “Let’s do it.”
The Bank of England should also be audited. They’ve been caught holding fake gold bars with duplicate serial numbers in the past. If one central bank is holding dodgy gold, how many others are?
The sad thing is that the RBA, knowing this still refuses to take Australias gold… pic.twitter.com/YCNOnq7nfM
Banks in Korea on Thursday halted the sales of silver bars amid surging demand, driven by increasing global uncertainties. Or is this something else afoot?
Lenders also earlier suspended the sales of gold bars, which have emerged as the most popular safe-haven asset around the world.
Korea Minting and Security Printing Corp. halted its supply of gold bars to banks on Wednesday of last week.
Since October 2024, the Korea Gold Exchange suspended bank sales of 10-gram and 100-gram gold bars while continuing to sell 1-kilogram bar until last Thursday. Good luck trying to get any gold including dore out of Korea. You will never get clearance to leave Korean air space.
“As gold prices recently hit record highs, a shortage of gold bars emerged. Consequently, investors turned to silver bars as an alternative, leading to a surge in demand for silver bars. A logical step if currency concerns abound. This suggests perhaps real concerns since the political turmoil there last year.
On January 30, it was reported that the Bank of England (BoE) was having real trouble satisfying customer demands to withdraw the customer Gold from inside the BoE Vault. Waiting times to receive gold from the BoE went to four weeks, then increased to eight weeks! And it is clear a great deal of gold was shipped to New York.
Last night, word came from Germany that they have been asking the BoE to return Gold held in storage for Germany has been the subject of excuses for many months by BoE. Did Germany get the shaft from BoE? In any case this does not bode well in confidence for the Euro and the Pound. Who else is on the short end of delivery?
It is being said that Germany has NOT gotten any of their Gold back from BoE. Sounds similar to what people having experienced elsewhere.
On Friday, Macron called an “Emergency Meeting” of European leaders after the United States communicated with Russia directly, concerning Ukraine, and then made clear the US would begin negotiating with Russia to end the Ukraine war. It also was made clear that Europe does not have a voice in the discussions. Yes, Europe was asked what forces they could contribute for peace keeping and pay for. But it is clear Europe is on the sidelines as is Ukraine. But was that the real reason or an excuse for a bigger more immediate issue? All currencies are a confidence game. And people may well have concern if gold holdings are not what was they were believed to be. Gold is a safe haven in times of crisis.
The 64 dollar question is whether the gold Europe thinks it has really there? Because if Germany is short it is likely it is not alone.
And if Starmer and Macron really decide to back Zelensky a rogue Dictator, they just might find themselves in a heap of trouble on more than one front. And that will mean the demise of Europe as we know it.
.3 CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Chris Powell…..
a must must read…
It’s not just the metal in the vault but the many possible claims against it
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-02-16 21:15 Section: Daily Dispatches
9:25p ET Sunday, February 16, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London’s Daily Mail has jumped on Elon Musk’s interest in whether the U.S. government still has gold reserves at Fort Knox in Kentucky —
— but no one yet seems to be addressing the key detail.
The big issue is not so much whether gold remains in the depository as much as whether it is encumbered by leases or swaps undertaken by the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department. That is, the big issue is whether U.S. gold reserves are, to put it politely, oversubscribed, along with the gold the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has held as custodian for other nations.
Just as experts have said the London and New York gold markets trade as much as 100 times the metal actually available for delivery there, with each ounce of real metal supporting scores of derivative claims to it, what is the U.S. government’s true position in gold in domestic and international markets?
During its freedom-of-information litigation against the Federal Reserve in 2009 GATA extracted an admission that the Fed had secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks:
In 2012 gold researcher Ronan Manly obtained the secret 1999 report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund confirming that the IMF was allowing its member central banks to include their gold swaps and leases as part of their official gold reserve totals so markets would not discover how much official gold had been deployed for price suppression:
That’s one reason — there are others — why official gold reserve data is not reliable and, indeed, why a mere inspection of the vaults at Fort Knox or any other official depository can never be dispositive.
Only a full audit of possible encumbrances of the U.S. gold reserve or any gold reserve can establish the status of the reserve and tell the story of gold market intervention.
How much gold has been shorted by the U.S. government in the last 50 years of gold price suppression policy? That is the question that Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency should try to answer.
In the meantime, GATA may be forgiven for suspecting that the supposed frantic shipments of gold to the United States from London and other locations have nothing to do with the fear of tariffs but everything to do with a desperate rush to recover gold used during by many years of naked shorting under price suppression policy.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
We’re close to winning but we need your help tonight
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-02-16 19:37 Section: Daily Dispatches
7:36p ET Sunday, February 16, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
We are so close to victory now. Gold is all over mainstream financial news organizations now even as they strive not to expose the real reasons for the monetary metal’s spectacular rise: the collapse of the derivatives-based gold price suppression system.
Gold price suppression is almost a respectable topic now, even if GATA is still not respectable enough to get mentioned by mainstream financial news organizations even as we pummel them every day with evidence of their dishonesty.
We’re a bit tired of begging for help to stay in the fight. Please help us tonight.
Our friends at Money Metals Exchange in Eagle, Idaho, support our struggle so much that they have minted a beautiful 1-ounce silver round honoring GATA — and they want you to have at least one.
On the front of the round is an engraving copied from the GATA painting by Alain Despert, depicting GATA as a modern-day Don Quixote leading a march of gold and silver advocates on the U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington:
The back of the round shows the torch of liberty breaking the chains of price suppression and recognizing gold and silver as the crucial defenders of liberty:
You can purchase the GATA commemorative silver round from Money Metals Exchange for around $34 here:
But if you’d like to help GATA directly, each donation of $250 to GATA will entitle the donor to one of these silver rounds, which GATA will arrange to have shipped to the donor from Money Metals Exchange, which is now the operator of the largest precious metals depository in the United States west of New York, a depository larger than even Fort Knox.
Your gift today will propel GATA’s important work, and we’ll be very grateful for it.
We just need to remind donors that the metal value of each of the rounds they receive as thanks for their donation must be subtracted from federal tax-deductibility of their contribution to GATA. For example, with the silver round priced at $34, a $250 donation made to GATA would be federally tax-deductible for $216.
Of course these silver rounds are likely to increase in value along with the silver price in the years ahead — another reason to consider supporting GATA this way.
So please consider making a donation to GATA tonight, especially now that this special 25th anniversary GATA silver round is available to memorialize it.
To donate, please mail a check payable to GATA to:
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer 7 Villa Louisa Road Manchester, Conn. 06043-7541 USA
Please include your e-mail address so we can thank you without incurring the time and expense of surface mail. And if you’re donating $250 or more, please let us know your shipping address so we can speed the silver round on its way to you.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
Zero Hedge urges Musk to audit gold at Fort Knox and Sen. Paul wants to help
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-02-16 19:12 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ryan King New York Post Sunday, February 16, 2025
Elon Musk could get a golden audit.
The world’s richest man got encouragement Sunday to bring his cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency into one of the most secure places in the world: Fort Knox.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, called for a review of the vault’s massive gold reserves — worth an estimated $425 billion based on market rates — in response to the tech mogul’s musings about the stash.
Musk, 53, drew attention to a user who asked him to “take a look inside Fort Knox just to make sure the 4,580 tons of U.S. gold is there.”
“Surely it’s reviewed at least every year,” Musk replied to X user Zerohedge.
“Nope. Let’s do it,” Paul, 62, chimed in, referring to the Army installation south of Louisville.
The Kentucky senator’s father, former Rep. Ron Paul , R-Texas — a big gold bug — had previously pressed government officials for greater transparency on the country’s reserves. …
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-02-16 13:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
And Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow acknowledges that gold isn’t just money but the only reserve currency.
* * *
By Leslie Hook and Ian Smith Financial Times, London Sunday, February 16, 2025
Gold has become the best performing “Trump trade” in recent weeks, outperforming other major asset classes since the U.S. president’s inauguration, as fears of a trade war and a potential hit to global growth fuel demand for the haven metal.
In contrast, Wall Street’s S&P 500 stocks index has risen less than 2%, while other popular Trump trades such as bets on a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields, or bitcoin have backfired.
“When trade contracts, gold takes off,” said James Steel, precious metals analyst at HSBC, pointing to previous examples during the Covid pandemic and the global financial crisis.
“The more tariffs that go on, the more this is going to disrupt world trade, and the better it will be for gold,” he added. …
Mark Bristow, chief executive of mining company Barrick Gold, said the “chaos across the globe” has helped fuel investor demand for gold as a safe haven.
“Very clearly the market is telling you there is only one reserve currency in this world, and that is the one politicians can’t print — and that is gold,” he said. …
Rise of dollar forwards builds risk for Asia’s central banks
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-02-16 12:28 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Bloomberg News via The Hindu, Chennai, India
Central banks across Asia are increasingly using derivatives to protect their currencies against a strong dollar, raising questions over how long they can do so and whether they are just storing up trouble for the future.
The Reserve Bank of India’s net dollar short forward position — the amount of dollars that will be sold at a future date for a pre-set price — hit an all-time high of $68 billion in December. Meanwhile Bank Indonesia’s net short book reached $19.6 billion, its highest since at least 2015, according to the latest official data.
The swelling forward books point to a shift in strategy among central banks intervening to defend their currencies. But the use of derivatives in addition to spot trades to push back against the dollar is raising concerns about the risk that selling pressure is being deferred rather than removed.
“It’s basically pushing out currency depreciation to a later date and in the meantime, keeping headline reserves high as a way of displaying confidence,” said Dhiraj Nim, a currency strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. “I’m a bit worried about that scenario.” …
Canada’s Poilievre pitches natural-resource expansion to counter Trump
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-02-16 10:17 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Randy Thanthong-Knight and Jacob Lorinc Bloomberg News via Business Standard, New Delhi Sunday, February 16, 2025
Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pledged to build an “east-west economy” with oil and gas pipelines stretching from Alberta to the Maritime provinces as part of a sweeping plan to respond to U.S. tariff threats.
In a major speech Saturday, the opposition leader aimed to persuade Canadians that he is the best candidate to lead the country in a looming tariff war with its largest trading partner.
He promised to hit back hard against any levies imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, while revamping the natural-resources sector to fortify the country’s economy against threats from its southern neighbor. …
He pledged to abolish trade barriers between provinces and construct pipelines from Alberta’s oil sands to the eastern provinces. He vowed to repeal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s environmental assessment law within the first 60 days of entering office in order to greenlight pipeline projects, permit mines, and port expansions to overseas markets. …
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: How the U.S. Treasury can cash in big using its gold revaluation account
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2025-02-14 16:05 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho Friday, February 14, 2025
The U.S. Treasury can draw up to $700 billion in new funding from its gold revaluation account at the Federal Reserve. And the Treasury could invest this “new money” in a sovereign wealth fund, increasing the money supply by an equal amount.
Using the gold revaluation account would emphasize gold’s strength versus the dollar, something the United States government has been trying to downplay for decades. This turn of events would be bullish for gold and weaken the dollar.
I started writing about central bank gold revaluation accounts (GRAs) to show how they can use a trick to write off assets, such as government bonds from their balance sheet, with new money from their GRAs. The German central bank even wrote me in an email that it doesn’t rule out this possibility for the future. …
Michael Hudson, a renowned economist, discusses the rising price of gold and its geopolitical implications.
Since 2018, gold prices have nearly tripled, driven by central banks’ increasing demand, particularly in response to U.S. sanctions and asset seizures, such as the $300 billion in Russian reserves frozen by the West. This trend reflects a global shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar and euro, with gold seen as a safer alternative. “Gold is being seen as an alternative to dollar or euro-denominated assets,” Hudson explains, emphasizing that economic decisions are deeply intertwined with political concerns.
Hudson argues that the gold market is unique and has been historically manipulated by the U.S. to maintain the dollar’s dominance in global reserves. He notes that, unlike other commodities, gold’s price was artificially suppressed for decades to keep global financial reliance on U.S. Treasury securities.
“The aim of this was political—to keep the world viewing the U.S. dollar as the most secure form of international reserves,” he states. However, as trust in the Western financial system declines due to excessive monetary policies and sanctions, nations are turning to gold. The recent sharp rise in gold prices signals the breakdown of this controlled system.
A major concern Hudson raises is the discrepancy between the actual gold supply and the financialized gold market, where much of the traded gold is merely paper-based. The leasing of gold by central banks to private dealers has created a situation akin to a financial bubble, with more claims on gold than the available physical supply.
“This gold drain to satisfy the recent price rise has seriously depleted gold reserves,” Hudson warns, suggesting that when investors demand actual gold rather than financial derivatives, the system could collapse.
He compares the situation to a bank run, where too many people seek to withdraw their assets at once, revealing the fragility of the system.
Looking ahead, Hudson speculates on the potential for a financial restructuring where gold plays a central role. He suggests that countries disillusioned with the Western financial order may seek a new monetary arrangement based on gold or other tangible assets.
“People have wanted to hold gold bullion because it’s tangible, and you know how much you have,” he says, highlighting the loss of trust in fiat currencies.
As global demand for gold continues to surge and supply remains constrained, this could signify a broader transformation in international finance, challenging the longstanding dominance of the U.S. and European monetary systems.
Key Takeaways:
Central banks are stockpiling gold due to fears of U.S. sanctions and asset seizures, signaling distrust in Western financial institutions.
The U.S. has historically suppressed gold prices to maintain the dollar’s dominance, but this control is weakening as gold prices soar.
The gold market operates differently from traditional commodities, with a significant portion of its trade based on financial instruments rather than physical reserves.
A potential “gold run” could occur if investors demand physical gold, exposing the lack of sufficient reserves and destabilizing the financial system.
The shift toward gold suggests a potential monetary realignment, where countries move away from reliance on the dollar and fiat currencies in favor of tangible assets.
BEN NORTON: The price of gold has been skyrocketing. Since 2018, the price of gold has nearly tripled. This has caused a big debate around the world about why this is happening. There are, of course, several different factors.
One of them is that central banks around the world have been buying more and more gold, especially with the threat of sanctions from the United States. One-third of all countries on Earth are under US sanctions, including 60% of low-income countries.
The war in Ukraine has only accelerated this, as the US and the EU seized $300 billion dollars and euros worth of assets held by Russia’s central bank. This has scared many other countries’ central banks, which fear that they could be next to have their assets seized by the West.
Gold is being seen as an alternative to dollar- or euro-denominated assets.
But it’s not just central banks. There’s also a lot of private demand, especially as there was a lot of inflation coming out of the Covid pandemic.
What’s interesting is that, typically, gold is seen as an inflation hedge. And when inflation increases, the price of gold tends to increase. But in the past two years, inflation has come down, yet the price of gold has continued to skyrocket.
So why is this happening?
Well, today I had the privilege of being joined by the award-winning economist Michael Hudson, and he explained why the price of gold continues to rise, and what the implications could be for the entire global economy, and the politics of gold — because, as Michael often stresses, you cannot separate economics from politics.
So here are a few highlights of Michael Hudson, and then we’ll go straight to the interview.
(Highlights)
MICHAEL HUDSON: Demand for gold, as I said, has been far outstripping the supply for many, many years now. And as we’re taught in Economics 101 textbooks, when demand outstrip supply, prices go up.
But that hasn’t been happening with the gold price until just the last few months. And the question is, why hasn’t it happened?
…
Well, the obvious answer is that the gold market isn’t like regular commodity markets.
…
So the United States has sought to keep gold prices down ever since it was revalued in 1971… The aim of this was political: to keep the world viewing the US dollar, meaning essentially US Treasury securities, as the most secure form of their international reserves.
It’s secure in the sense that, unlike other countries, the United States can simply print the dollars. It can’t go bankrupt.
…
People like to say gold is an inflation hedge. But you could say eggs are an inflation hedge, or pork is an inflation hedge.
The point is, the real problem is the US balance of payments deficit pumping dollars into the world.
You’ll pay dollars to an exporter, from China or Germany — when there was still a German industry — and they turn the dollars over to their central bank, and the central bank would then say, “What are we going to do with these dollars? If we don’t send them back to the United States, our currency is going to go up against the dollar, and that is going to make our exports less competitive. So we have to keep our currency, our exchange rate, down; and we do that by buying Treasury securities”.
It has always been political. And the newspapers don’t want to talk about politics, because if they talked about politics, all of a sudden people would realize the Western political and economic system cannot last in the way that it’s structured now.
When you talk about politics, you realize the game is over for the West.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY//COFFE
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.86 PTS OR 0.26%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 252,16 PTS OR 1.12%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 194.14 OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.65%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2540CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWNTO 7.2828/ Oil UP TO 71.49dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.31Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVELEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2540
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2828
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 8.86PTS OR 0.26%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 252.16 PTS OR 1.12%
2. Nikkei closed UP 194,14 OR 0.47%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.92 EURO RISES TO 1.04914 DOW 32 BASIS PT HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.395 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.06…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4830 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.547 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.149
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.332
3j Gold at $2912.90 /Silver at: 32.37 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 50 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.50
3m oil into the 71dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152,06 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.395% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9033 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9442 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.515 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.739 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.274 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 36.25…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5275 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.104 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.795 DOWN 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures, Global Markets Rise As Russia-US Talks Seek End To Ukraine War
Tuesday, Feb 18, 2025 – 08:29 AM
US equity futures and global markets are higher as Russian and US officials met to negotiate an end to the three-year war in Ukraine. As of 8:00am ET, both S&P and Nasdaq futures are 0.4% higher, with Mag7 names all higher ex META (GOOGL +0.5%, AMZN +0.4%, AAPL +0.1%, MSFT +0.3%, META -0.2%, NVDA +1.2% and TSLA +0.8%) and Semis bid up, led by Intel. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index held near record highs, with defense stocks such as Rheinmetall and Dassault Aviation rallying further on expectations that governments will have to ratchet up military spending. A gauge of emerging-market equities hit a three-month high, while stocks in Asia were mixed, but still closed in the green for a fifth day after President Xi Jinping met with prominent entrepreneurs Monday. Tariff headlines were quiet over the weekend as the market focused on a RU/UKR solution. Bond yields are higher by 1-3 bps and USD looks to break a 5-day losing streak. Commodities are stronger with all 3 complexes bid up and WTI finding support above $70/bbl. Today’s macro releases lack market-moving data as part of a relatively quiet macro week; we have two Fed speakers on deck.
In premarket trading, Nvidia is leading gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks (GOOGL +0.5%, AMZN +0.4%, AAPL +0.1%, MSFT +0.3%, META -0.2%, NVDA +1.2% and TSLA +0.8%). Intel shares extended their recent surge after the Wall Street Journal reported that Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom are mulling deals that would break up the US chip giant. Delta Air Lines fell after one of its jets flipped out of control upon landing in Toronto. In Europe, InterContinental Hotels Group Plc dropped after results. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Constellation Brands (STZ) rises 8% after Berkshire Hathaway reported a new position in the Corona and Modelo maker.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) slips about 1% after one of the company’s regional jets flipped out of control after landing in windy, freezing conditions in Toronto on Monday.
Fluor (FLR) drops 6% after the infrastructure construction company’s annual profit forecast fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company also said Chief Operating Officer Jim Breuer will take over as CEO on May 1.
GeneDX Holdings (WGS) rises 22% after the genomics testing company issued guidance for 2025.
H&E Equipment Services (HEES) jumps 16% after announcing that the company received a superior proposal from Herc Holdings. Shares of Herc (HRI) fall 4%.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) declines 1% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the telehealth company, saying it is “time for a breather after a torrid run.”
Intel (INTC) rises 5% as the Wall Street Journal reports that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Broadcom are mulling potential deals that would break the US chipmaking giant in two.
Solid Biosciences Inc. (SLDB) gains 94% after reporting initial clinical data from next-generation Duchenne Gene Therapy candidate SGT-003.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) rises 2% after the carrier said it will cut about 1,750 jobs in its leadership ranks to reduce expenses.
As discussed last night, the “romantic phase” of the European defense stock surge is coming to an end, as attention turns to who gets to pay for all those trillions in required defense expenditures. The spending concerns weighed on European bonds, with German 10-year bund yields — the benchmark borrowing rate for the euro area — touching the highest in more than two weeks. As US Treasuries trading resumed, 10-year yields rose about three basis points. The moves came as Saudi Arabia hosted talks between Russia and the US, which could pave the way for President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to meet. Meanwhile, European governments are mulling new defense funding measures ahead of a March 20-21 summit.
“The prospect of the war in Ukraine coming to an end is very positive,” said Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Bank and Trust Co. “Underneath it all is defense spending, which will be good for US defense contractors, but also European industrials and defense contractors.”
Indeed, the mood on equities remains bullish overall, with a Bank of America survey showing global stocks are the most popular asset class with investors. Fund managers’ cash levels have dropped to the lowest since 2010, indicating greater willingness to take on risk.
Attention is now set to refocus on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path, with Governor Christopher Waller saying recent economic data supports keeping rates on hold until more progress is seen on inflation. His comments helped the dollar advance against Group-of-10 peers. Fed officials Mary Daly and Michael Barr are due to speak Tuesday, while minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting will be released on Wednesday.
European stocks were little changed after reaching a fresh record high on Monday, as investors assessed the outlook for defense spending and the likelihood of ceasefire in Ukraine. Investors will turn their focus to Saudi Arabia, where Russian and US representatives are meeting to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Stoxx 600 was little changed at 555.49 with 366 members down, 209 up, and 25 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
Glencore shares rise as much as 1.9% after the stock was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. Analyst says that concerns over the impact of a potential end to the war in Ukraine on the miner and commodities trader’s earnings power are “exaggerated.”
Hollywood Bowl shares rise as much as 5.3%, the most in more than a year, after the bowling center operator launched a £10m share buyback, in line with previous years.
Formycon shares advance as much as 5.7%, paring some of Monday’s record 35% decline, after Hauck & Aufhaeuser analysts say the selloff seems “overdone” and expectations have been reset.
Valneva shares rise as much as 6.8%, before paring the gain to 2%, after the French vaccines maker forecast substantially lower operating cash burn in 2025.
BT shares fall as much as 5.7% and are headed for their worst day in six months after Citi cut its rating to sell from buy, saying the telecom operator’s key Openreach arm may face a revenue decline from 2025-2026.
Capgemini shares decline 8.7% after the French company gave a lower-than-expected revenue growth target for this year, signaling continued tepid IT demand.
IHG shares slide as much as 4.6% after analysts flagged higher interest expense and capital expenditure guidance could weigh on the hotelier’s earnings expectations.
Edenred shares fall 7.9%, the most since October, after fourth-quarter results. Analysts point to slowing like-for-like operating growth in the second half of 2024 and a regulatory overhang in multiple markets.
Serica Energy shares drop 13% as the oil and gas company grapples with new issues impacting the Triton FPSO (floating production storage and offloading unit), which has been taken offline once again and thrown fresh doubt over the firm’s annual production guidance.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed, but are still headed for a fifth day of gains after President Xi Jinping met with prominent entrepreneurs Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.1%, with Hong-Kong listed technology stocks Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi among the biggest boosts. Australian shares fell amid the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter point, and those in mainland China declined. The meeting with Xi, attended by the likes of Alibaba’s Jack Ma, inspired hopes that the world’s second-largest economy may do more to support its private sector. The Hang Seng Index advanced 1.3%.
“I think it’s more symbolic rather than a structural shift for China tech,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X ETFs. The key question is whether this translates into real support measures at the Two Sessions event in March, he added, stating that investors “will need to see follow-through.” Shares traded higher in Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.3%, arresting a three-day slide that had been gradually losing pace. Waller characterized the economy as solid, with a labor market that is in a “sweet spot.” The Aussie dollar outperforms after the RBA cut interest rates but stressed it won’t ease as aggressively as markets anticipate; the British pound was down 0.2%.
In rates, treasury yields rose across the curve on return from a long holiday weekend. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 3bps to 4.51%. Markets are pricing the possibility that the Fed will deliver one 25bps cut by year-end, with a roughly 50-50 chance or another easing. Treasuries also track selling in European government bonds, which take a hit on the growing view that Europe will need to raise defense spending to help Ukraine, likely requiring more bond issuance. German 10-year yields rise 1 bps to 2.50%. Gilts underperform after UK pay growth picked up to its highest level in eight months and employment unexpectedly rose. UK 10-year yields rise 2 bps to 4.55%.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.5% to $71.80 a barrel. European natural gas prices fall for a sixth consecutive session to near €47 a megawatt-hour. Spot gold climbs $14 to $2,910/oz after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts raised their year-end gold target to $3,100. Prices for the precious metal are up almost 11% so far this year.
Looking to the day ahead, and US data releases include the Empire State manufacturing survey for February, and the NAHB’s housing market index for February. Eslewhere, there’s UK unemployment for December, the German ZEW survey for February, and Canada’s CPI for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, the ECB’s Holzmann and Cipollone, and the Fed’s Daly and Barr. US and Russian delegates meet in Saudi Arabia for talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 6,149.75
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 554.90
MXAP up 0.3% to 189.81
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 598.74
Nikkei up 0.2% to 39,270.40
Topix up 0.3% to 2,775.51
Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 22,976.81
Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,324.49
Sensex little changed at 76,020.69
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 8,481.01
Kospi up 0.6% to 2,626.81
German 10Y yield up 1.7 bps at 2.50%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.0457
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $75.77/bbl
Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,913.32
US Dollar Index up 0.35% to 106.95
Top Overnight news
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said recent economic data support keeping rates on hold, but cuts may resume later this year if inflation behaves as it did in 2024. Waller (voter) said tariffs are expected to have a modest and non-persistent impact on prices that the Fed should try to look through when setting policy, while he added the recent CPI reading was disappointing but may be the result of seasonal adjustment issues. Waller also commented that the Fed cannot let uncertainty about policy paralyse action and decisions must be guided by data but added that it is appropriate to keep rates on hold for now and seasonal effects may be distorting data, as well as noted that he sees inflation progress in the past year as excruciatingly slow. BBG
Top US and Russian officials started meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine, without anyone from Kyiv taking part. France’s Emmanuel Macron spoke separately with Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy on aligning with the US on peace talks. BBG
Bearishness among individual investors—measured by the percentage who expect stock prices to fall over the next six months—reached 47.3% for the week ended Feb. 12, according to the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. That is the highest level since November 2023. WSJ
Crews responded to a plane crash at the Toronto Pearson airport, while the incident occurred upon landing involving a Delta Airlines plane arriving from Minneapolis although all passengers and crew are accounted for.
China’s Xi made a strong show of support for the China’s private sector and its tech entrepreneurs at an event Monday as the government marshals all components of the economy to bolster growth and counter rising trade tensions with the US. WSJ
Singapore will boost payments and tax rebates to households to help with living costs, PM Lawrence Wong said in his first budget — one that comes ahead of elections in November. BBG
Australia’s RBA cut interest rates by 25bp, as expected, but expressed caution on the potential for additional easing given that the war on inflation hasn’t been completely won. RTRS
UK pay growth picked up to 5.9% last quarter, its highest level in eight months, and employment unexpectedly rose, indicating a more resilient jobs market than expected. Traders trimmed expectations for BOE cuts to 54 bps from 57 bps yesterday. BBG
France proposed a “reassurance force” of European troops to be stationed behind a potential armistice line should Russia and Ukraine reach a settlement in their war, although there was pushback to the idea from Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain. FT
Four of the EU’s top central bankers urged the bloc’s regulatory arm to simplify the mass of rules that commercial lenders blame for increasingly putting them at an international disadvantage. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall St owing to the Presidents’ Day holiday, while participants in the region braced for central bank updates beginning with the RBA rate decision. ASX 200 traded negative amid underperformance in energy and the top-weighted financials sector, while sentiment failed to benefit from the RBA’s widely expected 25bps rate cut as it also signalled caution on further cuts. Nikkei 225 gained but with upside capped after swinging between gains and losses amid firmer yields and a quiet calendar. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the Hong Kong benchmark resumed its recent outperformance with the help of strength in tech and auto names, while the mainland was lacklustre as US-China frictions lingered and after reports noted that the PBoC may further limit its MLF rollover to prevent idle funds.
Top Asian News
RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10%, as expected, and said underlying inflation is moderating and the outlook remains uncertain, while it added that sustainably returning inflation to the target is the priority and the board will continue to rely on data and evolving risk assessments to guide decisions. RBA stated the board is more confident that inflation is moving toward the midpoint of the 2–3% target range but noted that upside risks remain and the board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing. Furthermore, it stated that forecasts suggest that easing monetary policy too soon could stall disinflation and cause inflation to settle above the target midpoint.
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy stated inflation and GDP have been softer than expected, while the labour market remains strong and domestic financial conditions are restrictive, with rates above neutral. RBA also noted a wide range of estimates for the neutral rate, with some estimates declining and it forecast GDP to grow by 2.0% in June 2025, 2.3% in June 2026, and 2.2% in June 2027, while CPI is forecast at 2.4% in June 2025, 3.2% in June 2026, and 2.7% in June 2027 with the trimmed mean inflation forecast at 2.7% for June 2025, 2026, and 2027. Furthermore, its forecasts assumed a cash rate of 4.0% in June 2025, 3.6% in December 2025, and 3.4% in June 2026.
RBA Governor Bullock said in the post-meeting press conference that it is clear high rates have worked and cannot declare victory on inflation yet, while the strength of the jobs market has been surprising and further rate cuts implied by the market are not guaranteed. Bullock said cannot get too ahead of ourselves on rates and the rate cut was a difficult decision, as well as stated that they have to be patient and it is really important to get inflation down.
China’s state planner said ‘precise’ policies are to be implemented to help ease difficulties faced by private companies and the current political, economic, and social environment is conducive to the development of the private economy. NDRC stated that China will further break down barriers to market access and revise the negative list for market access as soon as possible, while it will continue efforts to solve financing difficulties and high costs for private enterprises, as well as plans to speed up preparations for the implementation of the private economy promotion law.
BoJ Governor Ueda says last summer’s volatility was mainly caused by market concern over weak US jobs data, US economic slowdown; says BoJ aware of views that guidance was not clear enough.
European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) began the session with a modest upward bias, but price action has been choppy since; indices currently display a mixed picture. European sectors are mixed after initially opening with a slight positive bias; the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Banks take the top spot, mainly driven by UK banks after the region’s latest jobs data saw a slight paring of BoE rate cut bets; Dec’25 -58bps (prev. -62.8bps). US equity futures are modestly firmer, with slight outperformance in the NQ (+0.4%), as the region returns from holiday on account of Presidents’ Day. BofA Fund Manager Survey highlights that investors are bullish and are long stocks, and short “everything else”; cash levels have hit their lowest in 15 years. 89% of respondents said US stocks are overvalued. On positioning: Euro-area longs rose to an eight-month high, UK shorts to a 11-month high. Interestingly, the survey suggests that the trade war is seen as no more than a “tail risk”. EU antitrust chief said she is ready to issue decisions on Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) next month; says EU will not engage in transactions with the US over democracy and Europe’s values.
Top European News
ECB’s Holzmann said there’s some probability of a March rate cut and decisions in favour of more cuts are getting harder, according to Bloomberg.
UK Chancellor Reeves will have to raise taxes by an extra GBP 12bln if she wants to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP and avoid a fresh round of austerity, according to The Telegraph.
BoE Governor Bailey says “we are in a period of heightened uncertainty”; disinflation is continuing. Facing weak growth environment in the UK. Hump in inflation due to administered prices. Risks are on two sides, could go either way. “Careful” language was chosen to reflect more uncertainty. Latest UK labour data looks on the quantity not far out of line with what was expected. Latest UK pay growth has risen less than we expected. Yet to see anything in the data that fundamentally changes the view of the BoE’s outlook. Bond term premia are being moved by US comments on tariffs. Agree with US Treasury Sec’s comments on whishing to see smaller moves in term premia. Yet to see anything in the data (referencing this morning’s jobs data) that fundamentally changes the view of the BoE’s outlook.
FX
USD is a little firmer vs peers. Focus for today is on US officials who are currently meeting with Russian counterparts to discuss a path towards ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Given the absence of Ukraine and Europe in the discussions, it remains to be seen how much progress can be made. There are few Tier 2 data releases today, with attention also on Fed speak from Daly and Barr. DXY has ventured as high as 107.05 but failed to hold a move above the 107 mark.
EUR is weaker vs. the USD and to a lesser-extent GBP. Focus in Europe remains on discussions between European leaders over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The likely need for greater bond issuance to fund additional defence spending commitments has placed upside pressure on yields, however, this has failed to provide support for the EUR since the beginning of the week. ZEW data (which were a little better than expected) had little impact on the Single-Currency; currently within a 1.0453-86 range.
USD/JPY has regained some composure after the recent declines and but has failed to hold above the 152.00 level with gains potentially capped by the recent stronger-than-expected Japanese economic growth. Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda proved to be non-incremental this morning, noting that the Bank is aware of views that guidance was not clear enough. If USD/JPY is able to reclaim 152, yesterday’s peak kicks in at 152.39.
GBP is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser-degree than peers on account of the latest UK jobs data. The release saw the unemployment rate unexpectedly hold steady at 4.4% (vs. 4.5%), whilst employment change was higher-than-expected and headline earnings growth a touch above expectations. Elsewhere, focus is on the fiscal front with The Telegraph writing that Chancellor Reeves will have to raise taxes by an extra GBP 12bln if she wants to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. Cable ventured as high as 1.2625 post-data before fading gains; currently sits within yesterday’s 1.2579-1.2635 range.
Diverging fortunes for the antipodeans with AUD resilient vs. the broadly firmer USD following a cautious cut from the RBA overnight. RBA Governor Bullock also suggested that further rate cuts implied by market are not guaranteed.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1697 vs exp. 7.2538 (prev. 7.1702).
Fixed Income
USTs are slightly softer. Action which comes as cash plays catch up to yesterday’s action and as such yields are firmer across the curve, steepening and outperforming European peers. Thus far, USTs down to a 109-01 trough which is comfortably clear of Monday’s 108-26 base. Ahead, Fed speak from Barr and Daly; attention also on the Russia-US meeting in Saudi.
Bunds are on the backfoot, but off worst levels following a pair of well-received outings from Germany and the UK. Downside not to quite the same extent as USTs given the marked European pressure on Monday as leaders met to discuss how to fund additional defence spending. Reports suggest that an emergency meeting will be held on/around 24 February, where markets will be attentive to details on the size of the defence spending. No sustained move to the German ZEW figures which came in firmer than expected across the board, ZEW puts this down to expectations of policy progress after this weekend’s election and assistance from recent ECB easing. Bunds have made their way off the above low and have climbed above 132.00 and look to retest the overnight peak at 132.16.
Gilts are in the red, in tandem with peers but with specific pressure from a hawkish set of employment/wage data. In the wake of this, market pricing continues to point to the next 25bps move occurring in June but thereafter the timing for a second move has just about been pushed from September to November. BoE’s Bailey spoke on the latest jobs data, saying that there is nothing in the latest jobs data which fundamentally changes their view, a remark which came alongside a robust UK auction and has lifted Gilts to retest their 92.78 peak.
Orders for new 8yr “BTP Plus” bond reach EUR 6bln since start of offer, via Reuters citing bourse data.
UK sells GBP 1.75bln 4.0% 2063 Gilt: b/c 2.8x (prev. 3.10x), average yield 5.076% (prev. 4.557%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 1.3bps)
A firm session across crude prices this morning with WTI not experiencing a settlement on Monday amid the US Presidents’ Day holiday, whilst Brent Apr settled with gains of 0.48/bbl. Geopolitical updates have been plentiful as US-Russia high-level delegations met in Riyadh to discuss a peace path for Russia-Ukraine. Elsewhere, Lebanon said any remaining Israeli presence on Lebanese soil would be considered an occupation. Brent Apr sits in a USD 75.05-75.89/bbl parameter.
Softer price action across nat gas with European prices well under EUR 50/MWh from levels above EUR 58/MWh last week. US-Russia talks on a Ukrainian peace deal is likely one of the main sources of this recent pressure.
Mixed trade across precious metals with mild gains seen in gold despite the firmer Dollar (to which silver is succumbing to), with the yellow metal propped up by uncertainty and geopolitics. Spot gold resides in a current USD 2,892.07-2,915.76/oz range.
Base metals are mostly lower amid the firmer Dollar and cautious risk tone. Copper futures prodded Monday’s lows overnight with demand hampered amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia, coupled with a mostly lower picture in Europe.
Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to USD 3,100/ troy ounce by the end of 2025, driven by central-bank buying and increased ETF inflows.
“The presence of Kirill Dmitriev among the Russia delegation in Riyadh for the Washington-Moscow talks suggest that oil is going to be on the table.”, according to Bloomberg’s Blas. “Perhaps in the form of US oil sanction relief, or as a quid pro quo opening Russian oil again for American companies”
CPC says it continues oil transit via Tengiz-Novorossiysk route.
Russia’s Transneft says reduction of oil pumping volumes from Kazakhstan via CPC are estimated at around 30%. Consequences of the drone strike will take 1.5-2 months to eliminate.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar says “we will begin negotiations on the second phase of the hostage deal; we demand a complete demilitarisation of Gaza”. Will visit Brussels next week, and Washington “soon”
Lebanon says any remaining Israeli presence on Lebanese soil would be considered an occupation; Lebanon says it has the right to use all means to ensure Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese land.
“Iranian government spokesperson: It makes no sense to negotiate when the other side imposes a policy of maximum pressure”, according to Al Jazeera
Israeli security official said they are preparing to receive the bodies of four hostages on Thursday and are working to secure the release of six living hostages on Saturday.
Sources noted that the Egyptian plan on Gaza includes reconstruction within a period ranging from 3 to 5 years without displacing the population, according to Asharq News.
US President Trump posted on Truth that US forces conducted a precision airstrike against a member of al-Qaeda in Syria this weekend.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said they will never negotiate under pressure or threat but if the US negotiates with respect and dignity, the Iranian response will be with the same language.
Russia is ready to help Tehran in solving problems related to Iran’s nuclear program and the start of Russia-US talks will have no impact on Russia-Iran cooperation, according to TASS citing the Kremlin.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Russia’s Kremlin says cannot give an evaluation of the negotiation with US officials yet as they have only just started. No understanding of a Russian President Putin-US President Trump meeting, today’s talks may bring more clarity. Putin has repeatedly said he is ready to speak about peace. “Main thing is to achieve our aims, Of course, we would prefer to achieve our aims peacefully.” Asked if Ukraine could join the EU: This is the sovereign right of any country, we are not going to dictate.
Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Dmitriev said “we are still at the beginning of the dialogue with America on sanctions”, according to Al Arabiya.” It must be realized that sanctions have affected Washington more than Moscow.” US companies will return to Russia at some point.” Projects with America must move forward, including in the Arctic.” Trump administration is now ready to understand Russia’s concerns”. Progress of negotiations with Washington is possible in the next two months”, according to Al Arabiya
Journalist Rahman says “Few concrete results were expected from Paris, it was organised so quickly. Expectations now running high for an additional high-level emergency meeting on/around 24 Feb in Kyiv, hosted by the Ukrainian Govt.”
Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Dmitriev said in Riyadh that US-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war are important and US businesses have lost millions due to leaving Russia, while he added that US businesses have lost USD 300bln after leaving Russia and believes US oil majors will at some point return to Russia.
Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev said he has already met with several members of the Trump team in Riyadh on Monday, via CNN; “All I can say is they’re great problem-solvers. And I think President Trump is a great problem-solver,” he said. “I think the promise is: let’s have dialogue, let’s figure out the best solution for our countries, for other countries, for the global community,” he said. “I think it’s very important to build bridges. I think US-Russia relations are very important for the world,” he said.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a “long” call with French President Macron on security guarantees and achieving peace in Ukraine.
US President Trump spoke with French President Macron about Ukraine, the European meeting, and Saudi talks between US and Russian officials.
French President Macron said he spoke with US President Trump and then with Ukrainian President Zelensky, while he added that they will continue discussions about Ukraine in the coming days and work will continue based on the European Commission’s proposals, supporting Ukraine and investing in defence.
UK PM Starmer said part of his message to European allies is that they’ve all got to step up on capability and on spending and funding, while he added that includes the UK which is why he has made a commitment to spend more, according to FT.
German Chancellor Scholz rejected UK PM Starmer’s call for Europe to step up and deploy troops to Ukraine as part of any peace deal, according to The Telegraph.
Polish PM Tusk said all participants in the meeting on Ukraine had similar opinions to Poland on key issues and all agreed close cooperation within NATO is needed. Tusk added they realise that transatlantic relations are in a new stage and European partners realise that the time has come for greater European defence capabilities and spending.
Danish PM said they must ramp up military preparedness and see no signs that the Russians want peace.
European leaders at the Paris meeting agreed it would be dangerous to conclude a Ukraine ceasefire without a peace agreement at the same time, while they are ready to provide Ukraine with security guarantees depending on the level of US support.
Geopolitics: Other
Taiwan is considering a multi-billion-dollar weapons purchase from the US which could be between USD 7-10bln and could include coastal defence missiles and HIMARS rockets, while the package would send a message that Taiwan is committed to its defence, according to Reuters sources.
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the US is pursuing an outdated and absurd plan of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, while North Korea will adhere to bolstering its nuclear force, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Empire Manufacturing, est. -2.0, prior -12.6
10:00: Feb. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 46, prior 47
10:20: Fed’s Daly Speaks to American Bankers Association
16:00: Dec. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $79b
16:00: Dec. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $159.9b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I have a certain “circle of life” feeling this morning as for the first time I went to bed before my 9-year daughter Maisie last night. It’s half term and she had friends over for a sleepover. By the time I headed up to bed at 9:30pm they were still awake. Let’s hope it’s a few more years before she comes home from a nightclub around 430am just as I’m getting up to write the EMR.
By the time that inevitable day arrives, the defence architecture of Europe could look a lot different. As I said in my chart of the day yesterday, to paraphrase Lenin (not something I do often), there are days when decades happen. While that might be a slight exaggeration, the potential implications are huge after the events of the last five days where first the US froze out Europe in announcing the start of talks with Russia, and second with the broadside against Europe from US Vice President JD Vance. That all this is occurring within a week of the German general election (this Sunday) means that Europe might start to move down a very different path within weeks to the pre-existing one.
The initial reaction yesterday was to price in more European defence spending with bonds selling off and equities rising, especially in the defense sector. This lifted the STOXX 600 (+0.54%) and the DAX (+1.26%) to fresh all-time highs. Indeed, for the DAX, that now leaves it up +14.5% YTD, marking its strongest start to a year since 2012. At the sectoral level, cyclicals generally did better, whilst the strength among defence companies meant Rheinmetall (+14.03%) was the strongest performer in the DAX, and the second-best performer in the STOXX 600. US markets were closed for the holiday, but by the European close, futures pointed to gains that would’ve been enough to take the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high. They remain around the same levels in Asia with S&P 500 (+0.21%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.30%) contracts up. This discussion of more spending and new issuance helped to drive a fresh bond selloff across Europe. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (+5.7bps) rose to 2.49%, their highest in over two weeks, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (+3.8bps), BTPs (+2.6bps) and gilts (+2.7bps) all moved higher as well. US markets were closed yesterday, but 10yr treasury futures also lost ground during the European session, with cash bonds reopening +3.2bps this morning so the pattern has been clear across the world. That said, the broader risk-on tone did lead to a fresh tightening in sovereign bond spreads, and the Italian 10yr spread over bunds hit a 3-year low of 106bps.
Earlier in the day, there had been divisions among European countries at the emergency summit in Paris over whether to send troops to Ukraine. For instance, UK PM Keir Starmer said that the UK was “ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary”. But Spain’s foreign minister separately said that “Nobody is currently considering sending troops to Ukraine”. In the meantime, Bloomberg reported that the US had asked European countries about what security guarantees they’d be willing to provide to Ukraine, and there’s been extensive talk of something much more substantial. For instance, France’s minister for European affairs said that joint Eurobonds were something that should be considered, whilst Germany’s foreign minister has said on defence that “We will launch a large package that has never been seen in this dimension before”. Peace talks are set to start in Saudi Arabia today between US and Russian representatives. So we’ll see if any headlines emerge from that.
All this is coming during a pivotal week for Europe, as the German election is taking place this Sunday. Depending on the results, that could pave the way for some reform of the debt brake that permits for more borrowing. As a reminder, our Germany team’s base case is now that a coalition agreement will include a meaningful increase in defence spending from the 2026 budget onwards, potentially with some glide path toward at least 2.5% by the end of the term. They now expect a new defence fund would be set up with greater urgency and spent more rapidly, implying a positive fiscal impulse.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning amid a rally in Chinese technology stocks. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.28%) is leading gains and resuming its tech-led rally but with the Shanghai Composite (-0.19%) dipping after a stronger open. Today has seen a meeting between President Xi Jinping and China’s top business leaders in what is seen as a possible end to the years-long crackdown on the private sector with the government working to revive an economy disrupted by a pandemic, regulatory crackdowns, and a real estate crisis.
Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.53%) and the KOSPI (+0.57%) are higher but the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) is extending its previous session losses following a hawkish RBA statement and press conference after their 25bps cut this morning. This was the RBA’s first rate cut since 2020, with the bank citing some progress towards bringing down inflation, but warning that further monetary easing still hinged on more downside in inflation. The central bank flagged that it would retain a restrictive policy due to the strength of the jobs market and an uncertain global economic outlook. Following the decision, the Aussie (-0.04%) briefly climbed before paring gains, trading fairly flat at 0.6352 against the dollar while yields on the policy sensitive three-year government bond have increased +5.5bps to trade at 3.93% as we go to print.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the Empire State manufacturing survey for February, and the NAHB’s housing market index for February. Otherwise, there’s UK unemployment for December, the German ZEW survey for February, and Canada’s CPI for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, the ECB’s Holzmann and Cipollone, and the Fed’s Daly and Barr. US and Russian delegates meet in Saudi Arabia for talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
at came as investors dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts, as the upside in the CPI was outweighed by the softer activity data and the weakness in the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred measure of PCE. So investors are now pricing in 40bps of cuts by the December meeting, up from 36bps the previous week. By contrast, yields on 10yr bunds were up +6.1bps (+1.4bps Friday) to 2.43%. And over in Japan, the 10yr yield was up +6.0bps (+0.9bps Friday) to 1.36%, its highest level since 2011.
B) EUROPEAN REPORT
C) ASIA REPORT
APAC trade was mixed in the absence of a Wall St. handover, RBA cautious on future easing – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Feb 18, 2025 – 01:19 AM
APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall St owing to the Presidents’ Day holiday.
Fed’s Waller (voter) said the Fed cannot let uncertainty about policy paralyse action but it is appropriate to keep rates on hold for now.
RBA delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut but also noted the board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing.
European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Monday.
DXY is firmer, AUD marginally lags post-cautious RBA rate cut, EUR/USD remains on a 1.04 handle, Cable trades around the 1.26 mark.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, German ZEW Survey, Canadian CPI, Japanese Exports/Imports, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Daly, Waller & Barr, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Baidu, Medtronic, Conagra, Occidental Petroleum, HSBC, Antofagasta & Capgemini.
SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stock markets were closed for Presidents’ Day although equity futures saw mild gains in the shortened trading hours and T-note futures marginally declined after the jump on Friday following weak retail sales data. In terms of FX, the dollar was flat and the yen outperformed after strong GDP numbers whereas AUD was little changed ahead of the RBA overnight, while Brent prices settled higher on fading Russia and Ukraine optimism with peace talks facing disagreements while Ukraine recently targeted a Russian pipeline.
US President Trump re-posted comments from Truth last week on tariffs in which he stated that he decided, for purposes of fairness, to charge a reciprocal tariff meaning, whatever countries charge the US, we will charge them “No more, no less!”.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed’s Waller (voter) said tariffs are expected to have a modest and non-persistent impact on prices that the Fed should try to look through when setting policy, while he added the recent CPI reading was disappointing but may be the result of seasonal adjustment issues. Waller also commented that the Fed cannot let uncertainty about policy paralyse action and decisions must be guided by data but added that it is appropriate to keep rates on hold for now and seasonal effects may be distorting data, as well as noted that he sees inflation progress in the past year as excruciatingly slow.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall St owing to the Presidents’ Day holiday, while participants in the region braced for central bank updates beginning with the RBA rate decision.
ASX 200 traded negative amid underperformance in energy and the top-weighted financials sector, while sentiment failed to benefit from the RBA’s widely expected 25bps rate cut as it also signalled caution on further cuts.
Nikkei 225 gained but with upside capped after swinging between gains and losses amid firmer yields and a quiet calendar.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the Hong Kong benchmark resumed its recent outperformance with the help of strength in tech and auto names, while the mainland was lacklustre as US-China frictions lingered and after reports noted that the PBoC may further limit its MLF rollover to prevent idle funds.
US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.3%) were positive albeit with price action quiet following yesterday’s US holiday closure.
European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Monday.
FX
DXY gradually strengthened as trade began to pick up from the holiday lull, while there were several recent Fed comments including from Waller who stated it is appropriate to keep rates on hold for now and that seasonal effects may be distorting data. Nonetheless, the rhetoric had little impact and participants now await more comments from Fed officials and President Trump.
EUR/USD lacked demand following its recent failure to sustain the 1.0500 status and after European leaders met in Paris for an emergency summit on Ukraine with several calling for increased defence spending.
GBP/USD continues its marginal pullback from yesterday’s advances and just about gave back the 1.2600 status ahead of UK jobs and wages data, while UK PM Starmer is reportedly set to meet with US President Trump next week.
USD/JPY regained some composure after the recent declines and just about reclaimed the 152.00 level despite the mild upside in yields in the aftermath of the recent stronger-than-expected Japanese economic growth.
Antipodeans were somewhat mixed in which AUD/USD was choppy but ultimately found some support after the RBA rate decision where the central bank delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut but also noted the board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing, while RBA Governor Bullock also suggested that further rate cuts implied by market are not guaranteed. Conversely, NZD/USD underperformed ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting with the central bank heavily priced by markets to deliver another 50bps cut.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1697 vs exp. 7.2538 (prev. 7.1702).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures remained subdued after yesterday’s cash market closure and with the latest Fed rhetoric providing little to shift the dial, while participants look ahead to more Fed speakers scheduled later today, as well as tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes.
Bund futures extended on the prior day’s losses to below 132.00 level ahead of German supply and ZEW data.
10yr JGB futures attempted to recoup some of the recent losses but was later thwarted by a weak 20yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures kept afloat and took a breather following Monday’s rebound amid a report that OPEC+ is mulling delaying bringing back oil barrels in April, although sources stated that no decision has been made yet and Russian Deputy PM Novak also denied that OPEC+ is considering a delay of the April oil supply restart.
Spot gold strengthened and returned to above the USD 2,900/oz level with the precious metal unfazed by a firmer dollar.
Copper futures prodded Monday’s lows with demand hampered amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin eked mild gains with price action choppy on both sides of the USD 96,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10%, as expected, and said underlying inflation is moderating and the outlook remains uncertain, while it added that sustainably returning inflation to the target is the priority and the board will continue to rely on data and evolving risk assessments to guide decisions. RBA stated the board is more confident that inflation is moving toward the midpoint of the 2–3% target range but noted that upside risks remain and the board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing. Furthermore, it stated that forecasts suggest that easing monetary policy too soon could stall disinflation and cause inflation to settle above the target midpoint.
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy stated inflation and GDP have been softer than expected, while the labour market remains strong and domestic financial conditions are restrictive, with rates above neutral. RBA also noted a wide range of estimates for the neutral rate, with some estimates declining and it forecast GDP to grow by 2.0% in June 2025, 2.3% in June 2026, and 2.2% in June 2027, while CPI is forecast at 2.4% in June 2025, 3.2% in June 2026, and 2.7% in June 2027 with the trimmed mean inflation forecast at 2.7% for June 2025, 2026, and 2027. Furthermore, its forecasts assumed a cash rate of 4.0% in June 2025, 3.6% in December 2025, and 3.4% in June 2026.
RBA Governor Bullock said in the post-meeting press conference that it is clear high rates have worked and cannot declare victory on inflation yet, while the strength of the jobs market has been surprising and further rate cuts implied by the market are not guaranteed. Bullock said cannot get too ahead of ourselves on rates and the rate cut was a difficult decision, as well as stated that they have to be patient and it is really important to get inflation down.
China’s state planner said ‘precise’ policies are to be implemented to help ease difficulties faced by private companies and the current political, economic, and social environment is conducive to the development of the private economy. NDRC stated that China will further break down barriers to market access and revise the negative list for market access as soon as possible, while it will continue efforts to solve financing difficulties and high costs for private enterprises, as well as plans to speed up preparations for the implementation of the private economy promotion law.
DATA RECAP
RBNZ Survey showed household 1-year inflation expectation is at 4.0% (prev. 3.0%), 2-year inflation expectation is at 3.0% (prev. 3.0%) and 5-year inflation expectation is at 3.6% (prev. 3.4%).
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli security official said they are preparing to receive the bodies of four hostages on Thursday and are working to secure the release of six living hostages on Saturday.
Sources noted that the Egyptian plan on Gaza includes reconstruction within a period ranging from 3 to 5 years without displacing the population, according to Asharq News.
US President Trump posted on Truth that US forces conducted a precision airstrike against a member of al-Qaeda in Syria this weekend.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said they will never negotiate under pressure or threat but if the US negotiates with respect and dignity, the Iranian response will be with the same language.
Russia is ready to help Tehran in solving problems related to Iran’s nuclear program and the start of Russia-US talks will have no impact on Russia-Iran cooperation, according to TASS citing the Kremlin.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Dmitriev said in Riyadh that US-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war are important and US businesses have lost millions due to leaving Russia, while he added that US businesses have lost USD 300bln after leaving Russia and believes US oil majors will at some point return to Russia.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a “long” call with French President Macron on security guarantees and achieving peace in Ukraine.
US President Trump spoke with French President Macron about Ukraine, the European meeting, and Saudi talks between US and Russian officials.
French President Macron said he spoke with US President Trump and then with Ukrainian President Zelensky, while he added that they will continue discussions about Ukraine in the coming days and work will continue based on the European Commission’s proposals, supporting Ukraine and investing in defence.
UK PM Starmer said part of his message to European allies is that they’ve all got to step up on capability and on spending and funding, while he added that includes the UK which is why he has made a commitment to spend more, according to FT.
German Chancellor Scholz rejected UK PM Starmer’s call for Europe to step up and deploy troops to Ukraine as part of any peace deal, according to The Telegraph.
Polish PM Tusk said all participants in the meeting on Ukraine had similar opinions to Poland on key issues and all agreed close cooperation within NATO is needed. Tusk added they realise that transatlantic relations are in a new stage and European partners realise that the time has come for greater European defence capabilities and spending.
Danish PM said they must ramp up military preparedness and see no signs that the Russians want peace.
European leaders at the Paris meeting agreed it would be dangerous to conclude a Ukraine ceasefire without a peace agreement at the same time, while they are ready to provide Ukraine with security guarantees depending on the level of US support.
OTHER
Taiwan is considering a multi-billion-dollar weapons purchase from the US which could be between USD 7-10bln and could include coastal defence missiles and HIMARS rockets, while the package would send a message that Taiwan is committed to its defence, according to Reuters sources.
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the US is pursuing an outdated and absurd plan of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, while North Korea will adhere to bolstering its nuclear force, according to KCNA.
GLOBAL NEWS
Crews responded to a plane crash at the Toronto Pearson airport, while the incident occurred upon landing involving a Delta Airlines (DAL) plane arriving from Minneapolis although all passengers and crew are accounted for.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Holzmann said there’s some probability of a March rate cut and decisions in favour of more cuts are getting harder, according to Bloomberg.
UK Chancellor Reeves will have to raise taxes by an extra GBP 12bln if she wants to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP and avoid a fresh round of austerity, according to The Telegraph.
The Reality of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Failing, Faltering, Retreating
Robert H on this:
This foolishness by China is a Western opportunity to be a friend and not an opportunist and oppressor. It is up to the West meaning America to seize the the day. Carpe diem !
It is only a reorienting America that can led. Otherwise, China will humble and rule all those nations who did not know they were becoming vassals
2/4/2025
A part of the first rail line designed to link China to Laos, a key part of Beijing’s Belt and Road project, across the Mekong, in Luang Prabang, Laos, on Feb. 8, 2020. Aidan JonesAFP via Getty Images
Commentary
Originally envisioned as Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s flagship project for global influence, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is losing momentum due to project delays, cancellations, and a growing number of unfinished projects.
In late 2024, Brazil became the latest major economy to reject the BRI, also known as “One Belt, One Road,” following India and Italy in distancing itself from Xi’s global infrastructure project. While President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has not cut ties with Beijing, he has decided that Brazil would be better off maintaining bilateral engagement rather than formally joining the BRI. His decision reflects growing skepticism about the initiative’s long-term benefits.
The BRI launched with great fanfare in 2013, eventually drawing 150 countries into its fold. However, a broader backlash has since developed due to unmet promises, financial entanglements, accusations of debt-trap diplomacy, and China’s expanding geopolitical influence. As a result, multiple nations are reevaluating their participation. With two of the largest BRICS economies, India and Brazil, opting out, the Belt and Road’s global credibility is eroding, dealing yet another blow to the ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in reshaping global trade through infrastructure diplomacy.
Far from being a global game-changer, the BRI has been defined by delays, inefficiencies, and failures. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), originally meant to be the crown jewel of the BRI, exemplifies these issues, with Gwadar Port remaining non-functional due to poor planning, corruption, and insurgent attacks.
Meanwhile, key infrastructure projects like the Karachi–Lahore Motorway and the ML-1 railway modernization from Karachi to Peshawar remain unfinished or stalled, as Beijing refuses to finance them without Pakistan assuming unsustainable debt. With $69 billion owed to China, Pakistan now faces worsening trade imbalances, financial instability, and security risks rather than the economic prosperity the BRI initially promised.
Beyond the CPEC, other BRI projects have brought little benefit, often leaving participating countries worse off than before. Indonesia’s high-speed rail remains incomplete, and Kenya’s “railway to nowhere“ has become a financial burden. China’s investments in ports such as Sri Lanka’s Hambantota, Pakistan’s Gwadar, and Bangladesh’s Payra prioritize Beijing’s strategic interests over local economic growth.
Hambantota is one of the most notorious examples. Despite warnings about its limited economic viability, Sri Lanka took more than $1 billion in Chinese loans to finance the project. When the port failed to generate revenue for repayment, the government was forced to lease it to a Chinese state-owned company in 2017 for 99 years, effectively relinquishing control over a vital maritime asset.
The BRI in Southeast Asia has also failed to live up to its promises, with more than $50 billion in pledged infrastructure projects remaining undelivered. A report from the Lowy Institute reveals that while China is the region’s largest infrastructure financier, only 35 percent of its projects have been completed, compared to 64 percent for Japan and 53 percent for the Asian Development Bank.
Laos, drawn in by promises of development, took on massive debt to finance the $6 billion Boten–Vientiane railway. However, it faced a severe financial crisis that led to China seizing a 90 percent interest and effective control of its national electricity grid in 2020.
For many nations caught in the BRI’s web, these infrastructure loans serve as a tool for Beijing’s long-term financial leverage, leaving them economically dependent and politically vulnerable to the CCP.
In addition to debt diplomacy, Beijing’s economic strategy includes dumping excess production into BRI partner nations and flooding markets, such as Cambodia, Nepal, and Burma (also known as Myanmar), with cheap Chinese goods. This practice undercuts local industries, stifles domestic innovation, and creates long-term economic dependence.
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Even more concerning, many BRI investments carry dual-use potential, allowing the Chinese regime to convert civilian infrastructure into military assets, expanding its strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean and beyond. Ports and railways built under the guise of trade could serve as military logistics hubs, raising serious security concerns for host nations.
For nations caught in Beijing’s web, the cost of the CCP’s “friendship“ extends far beyond financial debt—it erodes sovereignty, restricts policy choices, and deepens economic dependence. The experiences of Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Laos serve as stark warnings that the allure of Chinese investment often comes with a heavy price. Rather than fostering development, the BRI has left countries burdened with unsustainable debt, unfinished or unserviceable projects, and greater vulnerability to CCP influence.
While the CCP continues to promote the BRI as a success, reality tells a different story. In 2023, Belt and Road engagement ceased entirely in 19 countries, including Turkey and Kenya, while Russia, which had no deals in 2022, signed only one agreement. By 2024, more countries had canceled or halted BRI projects, even as China’s overall outbound investment increased by 10 percent. However, this figure includes all outbound investments, not just BRI projects, and does not indicate the initiative is thriving.
Much of this increase can be attributed to non-BRI investments, such as acquisitions in high-tech industries, energy deals outside the BRI framework, and capital injections into state-owned enterprises operating overseas. Additionally, high global inflation in 2024 inflated investment figures, making it appear as though China was expanding its overseas commitments when, in reality, rising costs for materials, labor, and energy simply drove up expenditures. Rather than genuine growth, Beijing may be injecting more capital to prevent defaults, restructure loans, or maintain its footholds in key regions as infrastructure projects stall or fail to generate returns.
Far from signaling success, China’s rising outbound investment could reflect its growing financial burden as it struggles to sustain the BRI. The initiative is no longer expanding but quietly retreating as more nations recognize the risks and seek to extricate themselves from the CCP’s grip.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
END
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
Could The EU Overturn The German Election Results If The AfD Does Well?
A great deal of controversy erupted in response to former European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton’s remarks last month regarding the European Union’s alleged power to overturn election results in its member states. Breton made the statement on the French television channel RMC Story. Speaking about the upcoming national elections in Germany and the expectation that the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will perform well, Breton commented that “we did it in Romania and we will obviously do it in Germany if necessary.”
🇩🇪🇪🇺Thierry Breton's statement on canceling Germany's elections translated to English.
Breton said if the EU Commission decides that the election in Germany was subject to "foreign interference," they would annul the election as they did in Romania's presidential election pic.twitter.com/3433nU8ya9
Breton was referring to November’s presidential election in Romania, where the results were annulled after a right-wing populist, Călin Georgescu, unexpectedly won the most votes. The Romanian Constitutional Court claimed that this move had been mandated due to an online Russian interference campaign that had been carried out in the run-up to the election.
Breton didn’t specify who the “we” was in his statement, but given that he is a Brussels politician, most assumed that he was referring to the European Union.
The cancellation of the election has become a global news story, and just this week, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance specifically pointed out the incident to showcase a lack of democracy in Europe while lambasting European elites at the Munich Security Conference,
JD Vance calls the European leaders gathered at the Munich Security Conference a bunch of HYPOCRITES for claiming to value “democracy” while actively working to overturn Romania’s recent election.
András László, a Hungarian MEP from Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, likewise attracted attention when he responded to Breton’s statement on X last month by saying that the European Union “refuses to respect democratic norms.” He went on to accuse the EU of being willing to “cancel democracy” when it doesn’t like the outcome of national elections in its member states. Entrepreneur and leader of the recently created U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Elon Musk, who has been highly critical of the EU himself, retweeted László’s remark with the simple comment, “Exactly.”
The Hungarian fact-checking site Faktum decided to investigate how correct MEP László’s remarks are. This issue takes on even greater relevancy in relation to the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), which was adopted in 2022 and entered into force in 2024. Among its provisions, the DSA requires online platforms operating within the EU to censor content at the Brussels bureaucrats’ behest when it allegedly violates EU law. The DSA likewise seeks greater transparency in terms of the sources of political advertising.
Several online companies, such as the search engine giant Google, have since indicated that they will refuse to comply with the DSA. Elon Musk’s X has likewise been accused by the EU of being in violation of the DSA by disseminating problematic political content, although Musk has denied the accusations, claiming that the EU is merely trying to censor speech that it doesn’t like.
While it hasn’t happened yet, the possibility of the government of an EU member state using the DSA or other EU legislation to annul the results of a national election when it doesn’t like the result certainly exists. After all, under the provisions of the EU’s governing treaties, national courts are responsible for enforcing EU law as well as domestic law.
Although the EU was not directly involved in the annulment of Romania’s recent election — at least not openly — it has been keeping a close eye on events there given that it can be seen as a test case for how the DSA could be applied in a similar situation in the future. This was underscored by the fact that the European Commission has launched its own investigation into whether “Russian interference” on social media played a role in the Romanian election.
Polish President @AndrzejDuda has warned of EU interference in his country's upcoming presidential election, citing the recent annulment of Calin Georgescu's first-round presidential election victory in Romania as a cautionary tale.
There is also very much a double standard in how “foreign interference” is understood in Brussels. András László pointed out in his tweet that the EU remained silent when Viktor Orbán’s united opposition received $10 million from anonymous sources in the United States and Switzerland in the run-up to Hungary’s 2022 national elections, and it was widely known that the U.S. embassy had supported the opposition’s media operations during the same period as well. (The European Commission naturally denies that there is any such double standard, and insists that it only has the power to intervene in a limited way in cases of election interference, which fall under the purview of the member states themselves.)
In response, in 2023, the Hungarian Parliament enacted legislation which led to the creation of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty. This office is tasked with preventing foreign interference, such as by investigating NGOs and other institutions in Hungary that are funded from abroad. The European Union responded by referring Hungary to the European Court of Justice, claiming that this office violates the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
In the case of Germany, the Federal Elections Act is the legislation that governs the way in which the integrity of the country’s elections is guaranteed. It is also the legal mechanism under which an election result can be challenged. The Federal Constitutional Court is the body that would be called upon to review election results in a case where foul play was suspected. This has never happened before in modern German history, however, and Faktum considers it very unlikely that the German court would regard a violation of the EU’s new directives on social media alone as a sufficient cause for overturning an election result.
Additionally, if the German government were to find evidence that there had been foreign interference in an election, it would first launch an investigation before taking the extremely drastic step of annulling the results altogether. And in order for the latter to occur, very clear and extensive evidence of foreign interference would have to be presented and proven. This is very unlike what happened in Romania in December, a country that has a very different body of legislation governing its elections than Germany does. The chances that the upcoming German national elections might be overturned by the courts are therefore very low.
How the EU’s DSA will ultimately affect national politics in Europe remains to be seen. While everyone agrees on the need to secure elections against foreign influence in the age of social media, different factions disagree on how this should be implemented. Whereas liberals tend to see the DSA as a way of combating such interference, those on the right fear that it could limit freedom of expression. Only time will tell how the DSA will ultimately be enforced in practice.
In Germany’s case, however, we can at least say that Thierry Breton’s claim that the EU would overturn the results of the upcoming election if the AfD does well is greatly exaggerated.
Europe must now defend itself: where are they going to get the trillions of dollars for this
(zerohedge)
“Time For Historic Decisions”: Europe Scrambles To Fund Its Own Defense, But Where Will The Trillions Come From
Monday, Feb 17, 2025 – 09:50 PM
European defense stocks exploded this morning, surging to an all time high and helping also push the broader Euro Stoxx 600 index to a fresh record, after it emerged that Europe will have to fund its own defense after VP JD Vance effectively pulled the US out of NATO on Friday.
There is just one problem with this newfound euphoria: while the market is already reaping the benefits of Europe’s rearmament, the question – which we asked last Thursday well before Vance’s speech, is just who gets to pay for this surge in defense stocks…. and for Europe’s general rearming as the continent is forced to boost its military spending from 2% of GDP to 5% (where it should have been decades ago).
This morning others also asked this ($8) trillion question, and the result was a broad-based selloff in European bonds this morning as a growing number realized that Europe – which already is drowning in excess debt – will have even more debt to drown in.
“The goalposts are shifting, and the EU is realizing they can rely less and less on the US for protecting their borders. In lockstep, we’re going to have to see European countries spend more on defense,” said Aneeka Gupta, head of macro research at Wisdomtree UK Ltd. “That does warrant a bit more caution on bonds.”
As Bloomberg also notes (almost a week after us), the view is finally becoming accepted that debt sales will need to increase as European nations shoulder the cost of a lasting peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. And according to Bloomberg calculations, upgrading defense and protecting Ukraine may cost Europe’s major powers (or not so major as the case may be) an additional $3.1 trillion over 10 years.
Bottom line, lots of numbers being thrown around and nobody willing to pay them. Understandably, as Bloomberg reports separately, discussions are (begrudgingly) gathering pace in the European Union on how to increase defense spending, with joint financing becoming a realistic option for a growing list of leaders.
The topic will likely be raised informally at a meeting French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting in Paris Monday with other leaders including the UK’s Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Repeat warnings by top US officials that they’ll move forward with decisions on the future of Ukraine that will alter Europe’s security architecture for years to come – without input from the European capitals – has focused the minds of leaders in Europe, who have indicated a willingness to contemplate bold action to ensure it has a say in its own defense, including the controversial topic of joint bonds. What is remarkable is that it took this long before said minds were “focused.”
“In the face of this emergency, I think it is time to take historic decisions,” French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad said in an interview with Bloomberg. “And indeed, the question of eurobonds, for instance, is one of the mechanisms that we should be talking about.”
And even though we warned last Thursday that a flood of new debt issuance (followed by an even bigger flood of QE to monetize said issuance) is coming, it took days before German, French and Italian bonds all slipped, with 10-year bund yields — the benchmark borrowing rate for the euro area — reaching the highest in more than two weeks (see above) as the “efficient market” finally grasped what was obvious to others for a long, long time.
What is the cost? According to NATO planners, the alliance will need to spend as much as 3.7% of GDP on defense, with Bloomberg calculating that the bottom line will be about $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years. Indicatively, just 23 out of the 32 North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries met the 2% spending target as of last year.
Among the funding options being discussed include triggering an escape clause to the EU’s fiscal rules to allow countries to boost funding without running afoul of the bloc’s regulations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed activating that mechanism for defense investments last week in a speech at the Munich Security Conference.
The EU’s economy chief, Valdis Dombrovskis, emphasized that the bloc will find ways to support national spending. “We are currently looking in more flexibility as regards European fiscal rules for defense and looking how to apply the escape clause, which we have in our legislation,” he told reporters Monday in Brussels.
Other options available include re-purposing existing funds, including those in the pandemic recovery fund, to use for defense spending. There are also talks of a smaller group of countries moving forward rather than all 27 member states, to avoid lengthy discussions and to have more flexibility in setting up instruments to issue common debt.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock signaled over the weekend that a significant plan for building strong defenses is in the works, saying “similar to the euro or the corona crisis, there is now a financial package for security in Europe.”
“That will come in the near future,” she said, without giving additional details.
Hilariously, Europe – which suddenly finds itself in deep financial trouble after JD Vance slammed its censorship and lack of free speech as the root cause for US withdrawal from funding arrangements – plans to do more of just that. According to Bloomberg, the new spending plans – which will be in the trillions in debt – won’t be unveiled until after the German election on Sunday in order to avoid stirring up controversy before the vote.
That’s right: to prevent an outcome that Europe is terrified of, namely an AfD avalanche in next Sunday’s German election (full preview here), Europe will not even mention the vast numbers that will be required, and which may even ensure an AfD victory if the voting population knew what was coming! As a reminder, Germany and the Netherlands have traditionally been against joint borrowing; it will be up to them however to fund the bulk of European defense in a world where the US no longer funds NATO.
Deutsche Bank economists estimate that the EU has about €400 billion ($419 billion) of defense funding available through national fiscal space, the bloc’s cohesion funds and from re-purposing money in existing programs, such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the European Stability Mechanism.
“If spending needs exceed this, new EU solutions may be required,” the economists wrote in a Monday report.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also been supportive of increasing the bloc’s fiscal capacity to finance common goods like security, saying last year: “common financing is desirable, whether by way of an increased fiscal capacity or by way of joint debt.”
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said there’s been a big shift in perception among European allies on EU budget rules and joint borrowing after the past four days in Brussels and Munich.
“Regarding joint European instruments, solidarity instruments like we used during pandemics or like we used for the green course — these need to be set up immediately,” Sakaliene said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Monday. “I think everybody or almost everybody is on board.”
Denmark has traditionally maintained a cautious stance toward joint EU debt issuance as it’s advocated fiscal responsibility and preference for individual member states managing their own debts. But during Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Danish government has increasingly opened up for using such measures, and Denmark along with other countries are now pushing to ease the EU budget rules to boost military spending.
“We must increase military support for Ukraine, we must produce more, and we must do it faster,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who attended the Paris meeting, said in a Monday statement. “I sense a new European determination, a seriousness, and a decisiveness that are needed.”
Actually what is really needed is money, and Europe, a continent that has been on the edge of recession for years, has none, and thanks to its staggering debt to GDP ratio, second only to Japan, it can’t even issue debt.
But it will have to, and – as usual – we will be right, because one way or another more QE is coming. The only question is what does the ECB do before it is forced to monetize another several trillion in debt. Its options, according to Goldman strategist Alberto Bacis, are:
lean against it with higher rates, delivering an ortogonal monetary policy that will enhance the higher rates dynamics…or
facilitate it, with lower borrowing costs in the front end and ultimately forcing steeper curve?
We’ll find out soon enough, although probably not soon enough to keep Zelenskyy in the Kiev presidency.
Meanwhile, those expecting the market’s honeymoon to persist, will be disappointed. As Bacis concludes, “markets are trading the emotional part of the risk. We will get to the detailed part in coming sessions but not now. Too soon to trade the details for now but will ultimately get there: we are trading the “will you marry me? Yes” phase: the emotional bit….in coming days post announcement we will get to the “marital agreement” (=the Detailed phase) and things we will get more interesting and less romantic.”
Iair Horn, Sagui and Alexander back in Israel after 498 days
Hamas will “consider” releasing hostage Maxim Herkin • Ex-hostage treated for pneumonia
L-R) Released hostages Iair Horn, Sagui Dekel Chen, and Alexander Sasha Troufanov on a Hamas stage in Khan Yunis, February 15, 2025.(photo credit: Canva, SCREENSHOT/X)
While hostage Iair Horn safely returns, his brother Eitan still remains in captivity
Born and raised in Argentina, Iair immigrated to Israel in 1999 at the age of 22 with a group of young people from the Habonim Dror youth movement.
By MOSHE COHENFEBRUARY 15, 2025 10:24Updated: FEBRUARY 15, 2025 11:13
EITAN (L) & YAIR HORN (R); brother Amos, who was not captured, at C.(photo credit: Bring Them Home Now)
Dozens of friends and activists from the Hostage and Missing Families Forum gathered Saturday morning in Kfar Saba, filled with anticipation and excitement ahead of the release of Iair Horn, who was kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz with his brother Eitan.
Michal Elia, an activist in the Kfar Saba branch of the forum who accompanied the family, told Maariv: “We got to know Ruti, their mother, after October 7 and supported her throughout the entire journey. There were ups and downs, but we always remained optimistic. She always remained optimistic, and she was the one who gave us strength. She would always encourage us, and we became part of the family. We are one big family.
“With the murder of the six hostages in the tunnel by Hamas, it was a major crisis, but we rose up and persisted,” Elia added. “We kept saying together, all the time, that this exciting day would come. I cried from excitement when I heard that Iair was being released, but we must remember that his brother, Eitan, is still there.
“Ruti told us, ‘I am very happy, but the joy is partial. I still have one child who is there.’ We are all very excited for Yair’s arrival, and we will continue together until Eitan and all the hostages are also free.”
Horn brothers’ mother exuded optimism throughout the process
Activist Yael Benyamini, who led the struggle in Kfar Saba alongside others for the release of the hostages, told Maariv that Ruti “exuded optimism throughout the entire process. We came to strengthen her, but the truth is that she made us stronger. She was always active with us.
Iair Horn, Sagui Dekel Chen, and Alexander Sasah Troufanov on stage in Khan Yunis ahead of their release, February 15, 2025. (credit: SCREENSHOT/X)
“There is both joy and sadness. On one hand, immense happiness and excitement that Iair is returning, but on the other hand, deep sadness that Eitan has not yet returned. This will be done when Eitan and all the hostages return. Then everything will be perfect.”
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said “We need to bring Eitan back so our family can truly breathe. We thank the IDF soldiers and security forces who risk their lives and bodies, and send condolences to the bereaved families who lost their most precious ones for all of us.”
Iair Horn, 46, was released on Saturday after 498 days in Hamas captivity. Eitan had come to visit him at Kibbutz Nir Oz at the time of their kidnapping. Hostages who have returned have reported that the two are healthy and uninjured and that they were still together.
Born and raised in Argentina, Iair immigrated to Israel in 1999 at the age of 22 with a group of young people from the Habonim Dror youth movement, where he had been active since childhood. He manages a community pub at Nir Oz, organizes events, and is known as an avid supporter of his soccer team. In addition to his community efforts, Iair is also a stand-up comedian and radio broadcaster, alongside his work in renovations and construction at the kibbutz.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
END
Time is running out’: Hamas displays photo of Matan Zangauker at hostage release
Matan Zangauker is not listed to be released in the first phase of the ceasefire-hostage deal.
Hamas placed a picture of hostage Matan Zangauker and his mother on the stage, where three hostages about to be released were forced to speak on Saturday, with the caption “Time is running out.”(photo credit: screenshot)
Hamas placed a picture of hostage Matan Zangauker and his mother on the stage, where three hostages about to be released were forced to speak on Saturday, with the caption “Time is running out.”
Zangauker’s image appeared beside an hourglass, an symbol used in many of Hamas’s psychological terror videos of the hostages.
His mother, Einav, confirmed in September that her son was alive and being kept alongside ten other living hostages.
Pushing for a second phase
Zangauker’s name is not among the 33 hostages expected to be released as part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal. The terms for a second phase have not yet been agreed upon.
The 25-year-old was abducted from his home in Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7 along with his girlfriend Ilana Gritzewsky. Gritzewsky was released as part of the November deal.
Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan, at Hostage Square. (credit: Tanya Zion-Waldoks)
In addition to the photo of Zangauker, Hamas placed several banners in Hebrew, English, and Arabic. Notably, one of the banners read “no migration except to Jerusalem” – a likely reference to Trump’s relocation plans.
Later, three Israeli hostages, Iair Horn, Alexander Sasha Troufanov, and Sagui Dekel Che,n were forced to speak on the stage before being handed over to Red Cross custody,
END
Hamas/ ISRAEL
Three released hostages returned to Israel looking emaciated and pale
Despite their stable condition, the hostages face a long psychological rehabilitation process.
By DR. ITAY GALFEBRUARY 15, 2025 11:35Updated: FEBRUARY 15, 2025 13:07
(L-R) Sagui Dekel Chen, Iair Horn, and Alexander Sasha Troufanov on stage with Hamas terrorists in Khan Yunis, February 15, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed)
Alexander Sasha Troufanov, Sagui Dekel Chen, and Iair Horn appeared thin and pale at the Red Cross handover point in Khan Yunis on Saturday, but were able to stand, support their own weight, and walk independently.
These initial signs suggest their medical condition is stable and does not require emergency hospitalization at Soroka Medical Center or Barzilai Medical Center in the South.
At the reception point in Re’im, military doctors conducted initial medical examinations, accompanied by a mental health officer who will continue to support them until they reach Ichilov Hospital and Sheba Medical Center.
The hostages received their first refreshments, including tea with sugar, applesauce, and a few biscuits, along with a dose of vitamin B1 (thiamine) to prevent refeeding syndrome, a potentially life-threatening condition.
After reuniting with their families and undergoing additional tests—such as blood pressure, pulse, oxygen saturation, temperature, and initial blood tests—they were airlifted via Yasur helicopter to rehabilitation wards for further treatment.
Released hostage Sagui Dekel Chen reunites with his wife Avital after 498 days in Hamas captivity. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Concerns of irreversible health damage
Despite their stable condition, the hostages face a long psychological rehabilitation process. Medical staff are concerned that prolonged starvation and a lack of protein, vitamins, and minerals may have caused irreversible damage to the heart muscle and other body systems.
Troufanov’s family expressed relief and gratitude: “We are overwhelmed with emotion and gratitude for Sasha’s return home after 498 long and harrowing days in captivity. On October 7, Sasha wdas brutally abducted from his home and shot in both legs. Seeing him today strengthens us and gives us great hope for the long rehabilitation process ahead. This is a moment of immense relief for us, his friends, and everyone who held on to hope and prayed for his return.”
END
MONDAY
Hamas agrees to cede control of Gaza to Palestinian Authority – report
The sources said in the report that Hamas’s alleged decision comes “after significant Egyptian pressure on the Hamas delegation that visited Cairo.”
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during a press conference with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez at Moncloa Palace in Madrid, September 19, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/JUAN MEDINA)
Hamas expressed that they would be ready to hand the Gaza Strip over to the Palestinian Authority, sources told Sky News Arabic in a Sunday night report.
The sources reportedly explained that Hamas said that any of their government employees would be “re-absorbed into the new administration or that they would retire, with a guarantee that their salaries be paid.”
The report further stated that Hamas’s alleged decision comes “after significant Egyptian pressure on the Hamas delegation that visited Cairo.”
Israel will send a working group delegation to Cairo on Monday to hold talks on the Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal, the Prime Minister’s Office disclosed on Sunday.
Israelis protest for the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip, in Tel Aviv, February 15, 2025 (credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)
Discussing the next phase of the hostage deal
The delegation will be headed by the Coordinator for Hostages and the Missing Brig.-Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch and “M.,” a Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) official.
The team will discuss the implementation of the hostage deal’s first phase, in which the six remaining living hostages are expected to be released.
end
MONDAY
The PA may want to run Gaza, but it would face numerous obstacles – analysis
Fatah spokesperson Maher al-Namoura says the Palestinian Authority is ready to govern and rebuild Gaza as ceasefire talks and discussions on the strip’s future continue.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANFEBRUARY 17, 2025 10:23Updated: FEBRUARY 17, 2025 11:35
Hamas and Fatah flags overlayed on the Palestine flag.(photo credit: Canva, Fatah, thanhloc123 via Canva)
The spokesperson of the Palestinian Fatah movement, Maher al-Namoura, spoke with Al-Hadath in a post that the Arabic media channel put on social media. In the discussion, Namoura said that the Palestinian Authority is capable of managing and rebuilding Gaza.
This reflects longstanding PA policy that it should govern Gaza after it was illegally pushed out of the region in 2007 by Hamas. Fatah is the largest Palestinian party within the PA.
These days, such comments matter more because of the ceasefire in Gaza. Israel and Hamas are also supposed to be entering discussions about the second phase of the hostage deal and ceasefire. The first phase is ending in another two weeks. Israel’s leadership has not spoken much about the second phase.
Namoura’s appearance on Al-Hadath comes after several recent comments he made to the media. He said Fatah has welcomed the Egyptian, Jordanian, and Arab countries positions against displacing Palestinians from Gaza. He was also quoted as dismissing US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the US could take control of the region.
According to the Palestinian Al-Quds newspaper, Namoura was also detained briefly by Israeli forces in Dura on February 1.
An image of Mahel al-Namoura publicized by activists during his alleged arrest on February 1. (credit: SCREENSHOT/X)
It is in this context that his comments should be heard. However, it is clear that Gaza is a focal point these days because of many discussions surrounding its future. While Trump has said Gazans could be resettled, he has also called for other countries to pay for rebuilding Gaza, which he sees as largely a demolition site because of the damage from the war.
Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to disarm. Hamas official Osama Hamdan made that clear recently. However, there could be some flexibility in terms of creating a technocratic government where Hamas continues to pull the strings behind the curtain and feels it has won the war but also finds a way to include a veneer of rule by some others.
There are other moves afoot. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel over the weekend and has said that Hamas should be eradicated. Netanyahu seems to agree with Trump’s plan, and some Israeli officials have begun to channel Trump’s talking point of “hell breaking loose” if Hamas doesn’t comply with the ceasefire’s terms. Some right-wing politicians also want a return to fighting in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff recently spoke with officials in Israel, Egypt, and Qatar, as Arab News reported on February 17. He is working on phase two and bringing the hostages home. Like Trump, Witkoff has been a passionate advocate for the hostages. Many freed hostages have thanked Trump for freeing them. Trump has also given Israel a free hand in Gaza, saying Israel can do what it wants.
Palestinian Authority in Gaza for the long-term
The PA seems to be in for a long shot to govern Gaza, despite its failure to do so back in the period between 2005 and 2007, allowing Hamas to take over. The PA received some help to shore up its own security in the West Bank with the work of US General Keith Dayton, who served as US Security Coordinator to the Palestinian Authority.
However, over time, the PA has seen its power erode in the West Bank. How could it govern Gaza again without support? Israel’s current government doesn’t support the PA running Gaza, and Arab states have not stepped forward with a plan.
It’s possible the Trump doctrine of stirring the grass might result in some kind of change. However, much still remains in the air.
END
TUESDAY
More than three hostages believed to be released Saturday, ‘Post’ learns
There are reportedly attempts on Israel’s part to bring forward the release of six living hostages to the Saturday exchange.
Demonstrators protest for the release of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip, outside Hakirya Base in Tel Aviv, February 15, 2025.(photo credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)
More than the three previously agreed to hostages are believed to be released on Saturday, Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
Hamas is still holding six living hostages who are supposed to be released in the first phase. Israeli officials are trying to extend phase one to include more hostages.
On Monday, the security cabinet met to discuss phase two of the deal. Only then will a decision be made on whether an Israeli delegation will meet with Qatari and Egyptian officials to discuss phase two.
The Post also discovered on Monday that four bodies of Israeli hostages will be released on Thursday.
A drone view shows Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists on stage with released Israeli hostages Sagui Dekel Chen, Iair Horn and Alexander Sasha Troufanov in Khan Yunis, Gaza Strip, February 15, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)
Caravans into Gaza
In exchange for the returned bodies of hostages, Israel will reportedly allow caravans to enter Gaza within the week.
This comes despite the fact that last Wednesday, the defense establishment and the Prime Minister’s Office denied Hamas’s reports that caravans would be brought into the Strip for Gaza families whose homes were destroyed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office also issued a statement denying the video.
“Contrary to reports in Arab media – there are no caravans about to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing,” PM spokesman Omer Dostri wrote.
END
TUESDAY
JERUSALEM POST
Hamas will release six Gaza hostages on Saturday, Israeli officials confirm
Hamas is still holding six living hostages who are supposed to be released in the first phase of the deal.
By AMICHAI STEINFEBRUARY 18, 2025 11:11Updated: FEBRUARY 18, 2025 16:07
Family and supporters of hostages protest to mark the 500 days since October 7, 2023, in Jerusalem(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
The Prime Minister’s Office confirmed on Tuesday Hamas will release six hostages on Saturday after the terror group said it will also transfer the bodies of four slain hostages from Gaza to Israel on Thursday.
Hamas is still holding six living hostages who are supposed to be released in the first phase. Their families have now been informed they will be released on Saturday, KAN reported.
Families of the kidnapped were informed of the release of the six living hostages on Saturday.
The reason for this was Hamas‘s interest in advancing the release of Palestinian prisoners who had been released in the 2011 deal that saw the release of Gilad Schalit and were since imprisoned again, according to the source.
In addition, if this were to happen, Israel would allow caravans and heavy machinery to enter Gaza.
Demonstrators protest for the release of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip, outside Hakirya Base in Tel Aviv, February 15, 2025. (credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)
Later on Tuesday, an Israeli official noted that as part of the framework of the deal, Israel was committed to allowing caravans and heavy engineering equipment into Gaza after following inspection.
The source added that subject to Hamas’s compliance with the deal, Israel would begin to allow the entrance of such tools in a gradual and controlled manner.
Israeli delegation not given authority for second phase talks
An Israeli official told the Post that no heavy machinery had entered Gaza as of Tuesday morning after images of such tools entering Gaza circulated online.
On Monday, the security cabinet meeting ended with no vote or decision regarding the second phase of the hostage-ceasefire deal, granting no authority to the Israeli delegation in Cairo to hold talks on the issue.
END
Two side of a coin revealed. And people died for one side of the coin. How can anyone believe what we are told about war or so called reasons for war?
It is time to hold those accountable for the past deaths to avoid having more immediate ones forth coming in a new war. A war which will be a lie. The only difference will be many more Western deaths.
The Taliban money laundering scheme was not an exception. It was how USAID, the State Department and the UN have operated for too long, not only in Afghanistan, but in Syria, Yemen, Gaza and many other terrorist areas around the world, using plausible deniability and chains of organizations to avoid accountability and direct responsibility for aiding terrorists. Pictured: Money changers count US dollars and afghani banknotes in Kabul, Afghanistan on December 7, 2021. (Photo by Ahmad Sahel Arman/AFP via Getty Images)
In 2022, the DAB Afghanistan Bank showed off photos of $40 million in stacks of hundred dollar bills sitting on the tarmac at Kabul International Airport. The Taliban-controlled central bank described this as one of three shipments of “humanitarian aid” amounting to over $100 million.
DAB, Afghanistan’s central bank, was headed by Noor Ahmad Agha, a “specially designated terrorist” who had been named as the “financier of bomb-making”, including the IEDs which had killed over 1,000 American soldiers, and sending money to a sanctioned figure was illegal.
Despite that, someone had sent a massive fortune in U.S. cash to the Taliban’s terror bank.
While no international organization was willing to admit to the cash-smuggling operation, the ultimate responsibility lay with USAID. The $40 million on the tarmac was part of a much larger scheme under which USAID and the State Department provided over $1.7 billion in funding to the UN, which then shipped $2.9 billion in cash to Afghanistan.
The cash had to be physically shipped because it was illegal for U.S. banks to provide it to the Taliban. USAID was helping finance an illegal operation to circumvent sanctions on terrorists.
When the State Department and USAID claimed that they “do not provide assistance to or through the Taliban” but work “with trusted international partners with extensive experience working in challenging environments like Afghanistan”, it was a half-truth at best.
The “trusted international partners” included the UN. USAID funded the UN, which used an intermediary to purchase the hundred-dollar bills from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where Afghanistan’s wealth, claimed by the Taliban, was being held, then contracted with a company, quite possibly Osama bin Laden’s old airline, to fly it to Afghanistan, deposit it in banks, allocate it to NGOs and then use DAB to convert the dollars into local Afghan currency.
This Afghan currency, the “afghani,” was also provided by the United States, which funded the printing of 20 billion afghanis by European companies for which the dollars would be exchanged.
“The United States and our partners have been working hard with international banks to facilitate payment transfers from Afghanistan’s central bank to European printing companies,” the State Department’s then spokesman, Ned Price, told reporters. “This will address one of the aspects of Afghanistan’s ongoing liquidity crisis, consistent with U.S. efforts to support basic human needs.”
Rather than just the “foreign aid” to Afghanistan in the form of the afghanis that it was already arranging to print for the Taliban, the Biden administration sent dollars to them through the UN.
Under the guise of humanitarian needs, $1.7 billion was provided to the UN, which used some of the money to buy dollars to fly into Afghanistan, to trade for Afghan currency, which the U.S. had also arranged to have printed on behalf of the Taliban. The exchange left the Taliban’s DAB terrorist bank with large amounts of U.S. dollars that it could auction off to its own allies.
The arrangement is even worse than it sounds because DAB artificially set the exchange rate of the afghani to the dollar at a far higher rate than the black market exchange rate. And the Taliban bank used the auctions of the dollars to artificially prop up that exchange rate.
USAID’s money laundering scheme not only used the UN to send a fortune in dollars to the Taliban, it allowed their terrorist bank to run a “dollar cartel,” buying dollars from the UN through its NGOs at favorable rates and then covertly reselling the dollars back in Pakistan to its dollar cartel at much better rates as the Pakistani rupee struggles against the dollar.
During the intermediate step, DAB held “auctions” of the dollars which elements linked to the Taliban, including the Haqqani network allied with Al Qaeda, reportedly “win.” The auctions prop up the Afghan currency and keep the Taliban in power. And the Taliban take their share at each step of the process, taxing all the various intermediaries before finally cashing out the money.
Sending dollars to Afghanistan only to exchange them for afghanis which the United States was also arranging for served absolutely no purpose except to give the Taliban liquid currency, but was justified as a way to prop up the Afghani currency as a “humanitarian aid” measure.
The money laundering operation required multiple steps and plausible deniability for USAID, the State Department and the UN, which insisted that “[n]one of the cash brought into Afghanistan is deposited in the Central Bank of Afghanistan nor provided to the Taliban de facto authorities by the UN.” To the extent this was true, it was because the money was deposited in a “private bank”, allocated to NGOs funded by the UN, which then exchanged it with DBA’s assets.
USAID was able to claim plausible deniability because it was putting money into pooled UN accounts, which, a report by the SIGAR Afghanistan War government watchdog revealed, “prevents tying humanitarian assistance expenses—including for the purchase and transport of cash into Afghanistan—to a specific donor’s contribution.”
Putting the money into UN pooled accounts allowed USAID to claim that they “do not provide assistance to or through the Taliban”, they just put money into “pooled UN accounts” which they do not control, and “as a result, State and USAID do not know how much of their total contributions to the UN have been used to purchase cash for use in Afghanistan”.
The UN deposits the dollars into its accounts in a conveniently unnamed “private bank” in Afghanistan. Its name is surely known to the Taliban authorities, but continues to be unknown to United States officials. From there, the money is distributed to the bank accounts of the NGOs funded by the UN. At that point they are most likely converted into afghanis with DAB’s aid, since the supply of the Taliban currency is controlled by Afghanistan’s central bank.
That allows the UN to claim that “[n]one of the cash brought into Afghanistan is deposited in the Central Bank of Afghanistan nor provided to the Taliban de facto authorities by the UN.” The cash is not provided to the Taliban or DAB by the UN, but by the groups funded by the UN.
The SIGAR report noted that “a UN official told us that the UN’s liability ends when the recipient PIO and NGOs have the funds in their accounts.” The UN then disavows any liability for providing the money to the Taliban, even as UN officials are well aware that it’s happening.
The State Department responded to these revelations by falsely claiming that there are no sanctions on Afghanistan, that banks refuse to carry out wire transfers because of “the lack of profitability” and that “to the best of our knowledge, no electronic financial delivery systems are currently scalable to meet the liquidity needs of the UN” requiring it to instead convert billions of dollars into paper notes and ship them by plane. None of this is true or even a plausible lie.
USAID declined to reply to the government watchdog’s report.
The Taliban money laundering scheme was not an exception. It was how USAID, the State Department and the UN have operated for too long, not only in Afghanistan, but in Syria, Yemen, Gaza and many other terrorist areas around the world, using plausible deniability and chains of organizations to avoid accountability and direct responsibility for aiding terrorists.
Americans have become the financiers of their worst enemies. It’s time for that to stop.
Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center. Reprinted by kind permission of the Center’s Front Page Magazine.
HAMAS/UNRWA
must be disbanded by Trump
Hamas linked to UNRWA, aid went straight to leaders, recordings reveal – report
Israel presented the recordings to the US, Channel 12 claimed; however, the Biden administration was adamant that 250 trucks of aid enter Gaza on a daily basis.
The humanitarian aid that entered the Gaza Strip at the beginning of 2024 reached Hamas leaders instead of Gaza citizens, according to recordings of communications between Hamas operatives revealed by Channel 12 on Sunday.
Israel presented the recordings to the US, Channel 12 claimed; however, the Biden administration was adamant that 250 trucks of aid enter Gaza on a daily basis.
The recordings further revealed the close connection between Hamas and The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
In one instance, an operative could be heard saying, “At the moment, monitoring is underway, and we will receive updates. There are definitely injured among them. Some of them are UNRWA employees. Two of them are police officers.”
According to the report, the junior Hamas operatives complained that the aid was not reaching them.
TRUCKS CROSS at Kerem Shalom, the main passage point for goods entering the Gaza Strip from Israel. (credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)
According to the report, the operatives who complained were told that other operatives had attacked their wives in a Rafah mosque in response.
“They enter the women’s room and beat them,” the reports noted. “We will redeem our people with our soul and our blood,” the operatives could be heard saying, according to Channel 12.
“The leadership is not involved in the matter and has been following it from the very beginning,” came one response to the incident.
Criticism of Hamas leadership
“Aamer, spare me these stories that the leadership wasn’t following. Pray that we disperse before we are brought to the south. I swear to you, we will tear you apart. Tell the leadership in Khan Yunis as well. We will tear you apart. You only care about yourselves. There is no leadership.”
“All the leadership in Khan Yunis should cover their heads because they are not men. They enter the women’s rooms and beat them inside the room. Everyone needs to understand that our honor is more precious than our lives.
“Our blood is worthless when it comes to our honor. Despite everything we are going through, this is what burned us from within. The war is one thing, the war and the rockets and nothing else scares us. Until this issue. This is what killed us. Our honor,” the operative said.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/OPINION
All hell breaks out’: Will Trump and Netanyahu’s unfulfilled threat haunt them? – analysis
Hamas did release three hostages. However, all hell did not break out.
By HERB KEINONFEBRUARY 16, 2025 20:19Updated: FEBRUARY 16, 2025 21:13
US President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, February 4, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/LEAH MILLIS)
“Promises made, promises kept” is a recurring phrase used by Trump administration officials to describe his first whirlwind month in office.
US President Donald Trump’s press secretary used the phrase at the end of a 95-second video earlier this month, summing up some of his early moves, such as deporting criminal illegal immigrants, resuming construction of the wall on the Mexican border, and doing away with diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in the government and the military.
The phrase also often appears as a subheading in fact sheets the White House issues explaining specific policies, such as a recent move to end mandated COVID-19 vaccines in schools and establishing a White House faith office.
A CBS News/YouGov poll last week found that 70% of Americans believe the president is doing what he campaigned on – meaning the vast majority think he is keeping his promises, whether they like them or not.
A HAMAS TERRORIST speaks with a Red Cross member before the release of hostages, in Khan Yunis, this past Saturday. For nearly 500 days, the Red Cross has failed to visit or provide medical assistance to a single hostage in Gaza, in complete violation of their mission statement, says the writer. (credit: Hatem Khaled/Reuters)
But what about the threats?
Trump has also made threats both during the campaign and while in office, some of them relating to Israel and the hostages. Is he acting on those as well? And if not, what will be the ramifications?
His first threat, as it relates to Israel, came well before he was inaugurated, when he said that if the hostages were not released by the time he came into office on January 20, there would be “hell to pay.”
January 20 came, and – while not all the hostages were released – a ceasefire was declared that led to the release of some of them, a ceasefire attributed in no small part to the pressure he placed on all the parties: Hamas, via Egypt and Qatar, and Israel.
Trump could explain that the gates of hell did not open wide even though the hostages were not all released by saying that some hostages were released, which was his intent all along, and that this was a better outcome than what had transpired over the last year under the Biden administration.
The president’s most recent threat in this context came last Monday, a day after Hamas made a threat of its own: that it would not release the three hostages scheduled for the sixth tranche if Israel did not allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza, including mobile homes.
After hearing that, Trump again issued a threat, saying that if all the hostages were not released by Saturday at noon, the ceasefire should be canceled and “let all hell break out.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials pounced upon that threat. Not to be outflanked by Trump, Netanyahu issued a threat of his own after convening the security cabinet, saying, “The decision I passed in the cabinet, unanimously, is this: If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will resume intense fighting until Hamas is decisively defeated.”
What ensued was difficult to follow, with various officials giving differing interpretations of whether Netanyahu’s threat referred to all the hostages, as Trump said, or only to the three that were to be released on Saturday or the nine living hostages to be released under the first phase of the ceasefire deal.
The final result
The final result: Hamas released three hostages. All hell, however, did not break out.
Trump, aware that unfulfilled threats will damage his credibility, made clear on his social media platform on Saturday that any consequences for Hamas not releasing all the hostages would be Israel’s responsibility to deal with, not the US.
“Hamas has just released three hostages from Gaza, including an American citizen. They seem to be in good shape! This differs from their statement last week that they would not release any hostages,” he posted. “Israel will now have to decide what they will do about the 12:00 O’CLOCK, TODAY, DEADLINE imposed on the release of ALL HOSTAGES. The United States will back the decision they make!”
This was a clear message to all: It’s not that Trump did not back up his threat with action, but instead, he deferred to Israel, which – as it turned out – decided to proceed with the ceasefire plan as originally structured and not take military action to change it midstream and possibly jeopardize the lives of the remaining hostages still to be released.
In his statement to the press alongside US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday, Netanyahu also felt the need – to preserve credibility – to explain why he did not follow through with the threat of widespread military action even though not all the hostages were released.
Just like Trump, Netanyahu did not want to leave Israel’s enemies with the impression that he was not backing up his threat, so he engaged in some creative rhetorical calisthenics alongside Rubio to dispel that perception.
“I want to assure everyone now listening to us: President Trump and I are working in full cooperation and coordination between us,” he said. “We have a common strategy, but we cannot always share the details of this strategy with the public – including when the gates of hell will be opened, as they surely will if all our hostages are not released until the last one of them.”
The threats Trump and Netanyahu issued and how they walked them back reflect the complex dynamics of diplomacy and an understanding of the negative impact of unfulfilled threats.
While the threats did achieve some aims, namely the release of the three hostages on Saturday, they fell short of the ambitious goal Trump spelled out: the release of all hostages. Some argue that the fact all hell did not break loose at noon on Saturday shows there was little to Trump’s threat; others contend that without such threats, Hamas might never have agreed to even that release.
Trump’s unfulfilled threat may affect his and the US’s credibility in international affairs. Interestingly, the American domestic and international audiences may view the threats and lack of follow-up differently.
Internationally, the reliability of leaders is generally diminished when they issue threats and do not back them up. This may lead other international actors to question the seriousness of Trump’s words.
For instance, he said last week that he might stop aid to Jordan and Egypt if they fail to take in Gazan refugees under his proposal to relocate Gazans and then rebuild the coastal strip under US control. What conclusions are being drawn in Cairo and Amman, however, from the ultimatum he issued on the hostages that simply came and went?
Moreover, issuing threats without follow-up may embolden Hamas and others in the region – such as the Iranians – who might see this lack of follow-through as a lack of determination and act accordingly.
On the other hand, the lack of immediate consequences for the failure to release all the hostages could also be read as a sign of diplomatic flexibility – suggesting that despite the rhetoric, there is room for maneuvering with Trump and, following an opening gambit, he will show pragmatism.
However, for the American domestic audience, particularly those who support Trump, the very issuing of an ultimatum could be seen as a sign of strength, of America asserting itself abroad, regardless of the follow-up. In this case, the threat itself is framed as a bargaining tactic intended all along to create leverage to achieve a more limited goal.
While many Americans might see this tough talk as a sign of strength, the words alone are sure to lose their punch and effectiveness over time if not followed up by real action.
end
ISRAEL/LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
IDF drone strike kills senior Hezbollah commander
Israel Katz responded to the incident saying, ‘As I warned – if there are drones, there will be no Hezbollah. We will not allow a reality of drone launches toward the State of Israel.’
A senior Hezbollah terrorist was killed in an IDF drone strike in southern Lebanon, the military confirmed on Saturday night. Later reports detailed that the strike occurred in Jarjouaa, north of Nabatieh.
The later reports also identified the Hezbollah terrorist as Abbas Ahmad Hamoud, one of the commanders of Hezbollah’s Air Force, who was responsible for many of Hezbollah’s drone strikes into Israel.
Hamoud violated the ceasefire agreement on numerous occasions, the IDF stated, as he was firing unmanned aerial weapons toward Israeli territory.
Defense Minister Israel Katz responded to the incident saying, “As I warned – if there are drones, there will be no Hezbollah. We will not allow a reality of drone launches toward the State of Israel.”
During the ceasefire, Hezbollah’s aerial forces, known as Unit 127, have been responsible for firing surveillance drones at Israel.
Members of Hezbollah attend the funeral a senior terrorist;; illustrative, June 12, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
Potentially additional casualties
Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen stated that two had been “martyred” and three others injured. The IDF has not commented on other alleged casualties at the time of writing.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/2ND COMMANDER KILLED/LEBANON
A second senior Hamas terrorist killed in Lebanon
Israeli official to ‘Post’: Senior Hamas terrorist killed in Lebanon
The Hamas official targeted was Muhammad Shaheen who planned to carry out terror attacks against Israel.
A senior Hamas official was killed in a drone strike on a vehicle near Sidon, southern Lebanon, on Monday, an Israeli official confirmed to The Jerusalem Post.
The Hamas official targeted was Muhammad Shaheen.
Shaheen planned to carry out terror attacks against Israel.
This is a developing story.
END
Israel considers placing caravans in Gaza in coordination with US
Following footage of trucks carrying caravans in Gaza, a senior political source said the matter will be discussed with security officials. The source confirmed coordination with the US.
By MAARIVFEBRUARY 16, 2025 04:26Updated: FEBRUARY 16, 2025 07:12
A woman cooks, as displaced Palestinians, who fled their houses due to Israeli strikes shelter in a tent camp, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, March 6, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED SALEM)
Israel held a security meeting to discuss the matter of putting caravans in the Gaza strip, hours after the release of three hostages.
This comes after a video started circulating on social networks showing trucks carrying caravans, which were claimed to be intended for families whose homes in Gaza were destroyed.
“After a security consultation held tonight headed by the prime minister, it was decided that the caravan issue will be discussed in the coming days. Israel is fully coordinated with the US,” the source said.
On Wednesday, the defense establishment and the Prime Minister’s Office denied Hamas’s reports that, at their request, caravans were brought into the Strip for Gaza families whose homes were destroyed.
Sources in the Civil Administration have said the video – which shows trucks carrying caravans inside Gaza – is fake, and is now being distributed by Hamas, “probably filmed in summer and not on a rainy day like today.”
People transport belongings on an animal-drawn cart as displaced Palestinians, who fled their homes due to Israeli strikes, shelter in a tent camp in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, January 1, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office also issued a statement denying the video.
“Contrary to reports in Arab media – there are no caravans about to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing,” PM spokesman Omer Dostri wrote.
“According to the agreement with the mediators, the Rafah crossing is operated by a multinational force only for the evacuation of Gazans to Egypt and/or to a third country.”
Mediators have asked Israel to allow aid into the strip
A few days ago, Saudi news channel Al-Hadath quoted Egyptian sources who claimed that mediators asked Israel to allow various types of aid into the Gaza Strip without restriction.
Meanwhile, Israel was firm in its position regarding the entry of tents and prefabricated houses into the Strip. The issue of medical evacuation of the wounded was also at the center of talks, with Egyptian sources claiming that Israel delayed the exit of wounded people, claiming they belonged to Hamas.
END
ISRAEL/LEBANON
IDF to pull out of Lebanon tomorrow, official says; Israel has vowed to stay in 5 posts
IDF strike in Lebanon kills top Hamas member * Events mark 500th day since Oct. 7; Witkoff: ‘We’re not leaving anybody behind’ * Netanyahu spars with judge on 10th day of testimony
As the IDF will mostly withdraw from southern Lebanon on Tuesday as expected, the IDF will have around three times as many troops on the defense line of the border with Lebanon as compared to before the war.
In addition, the military will maintain five outposts within southern Lebanon near the border, each manned by a company of troops, for an indefinite period.
Companies often range from 100-150 soldiers, though again, this is just a small part of the larger forces, which likely will number several thousand, if not 10,000-15,000, depending on various circumstances (the IDF did not specify the exact numbers for security reasons.)
The five outposts were not formally part of the November 27 ceasefire deal signed between Israel and Hezbollah-Lebanon.
However, Israel has convinced the US that the Lebanese army is not effective enough as of now to protect the Israeli border from Hezbollah, deepening its presence in southern Lebanon and then potentially trying to attack.
Brigade 810 operates in southern Lebanon, February 17, 2025. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Under the ceasefire, the Lebanese army was supposed to take over all potential Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, confiscate Hezbollah weapons, and prevent the terror group from sending fighters back into the area.
Lebanese Armed Forces improving
The IDF said on Monday that the Lebanese army is doing better than ever before and is surprisingly confronting Hezbollah in some instances, but that its performance is still far below where it would need to be to allow the IDF to withdraw the rest of its forces from southern Lebanon.
IDF sources suggested that a period of two to eight months for the outposts was easily imaginable and that the military could stay there much longer if needed for security reasons.
The five outposts will be located on the Lebanese side of the border, running from West to East near: 1) Levona (near Shlomi on the Israeli side); 2) Ramia/Jabal Blat (Shtula); 3) Bleideh and Bint Jbeil (Avivim); 4) Wadi Saluki (Margaliot); and 5) Aamra (Metulla).
According to the IDF, there is a hope that despite threats from Hezbollah to treat the five outposts as a continued occupation and basis for conflict, they have been limited enough to reduce friction with the broader Lebanese public.
Further, the IDF said that it would be crucial to maintain an aggressive posture toward attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon anytime it tries to sneak forces into southern Lebanon and anytime it tries to smuggle powerful weapons into any part of Lebanese territory.
IDF sources acknowledged that it would not be possible to completely prevent every single Hezbollah fighter from returning to southern Lebanon since many of them can return under the guise of being civilian villagers who live there.
However, the IDF said that it had enhanced its intelligence collection capabilities to try to better distinguish between legitimate innocent Lebanese villagers and Hezbollah fighters and would work hard on the issue.
In addition, the IDF said that while it would not rely solely on the Lebanese army and American advisors helping that army, the mechanism for reporting Hezbollah violations, with direct US oversight, was often working.
Also, the IDF said that since the September 30 invasion, it had succeeded in mostly clearing the five to six-kilometer area of southern Lebanon near the border of Hezbollah weapons.
IDF sources said that the buffer zone in Syria is also reaping the rewards in protecting Israel and that the military is working with local villagers so that they will not only not feel oppressed by the IDF presence but will even feel some benefits.
ISRAEL/IRAN
Netanyahu To Rubio: Let’s ‘Finish the Job’ Against Iran
Sunday, Feb 16, 2025 – 08:25 PM
Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Israel where he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, after which they gave a joint address before reporters in Jerusalem.
This is Rubio’s first Middle East visit since becoming America’s top diplomat. He and Bibi called for the total elimination of Hamas and the return of all the remaining hostages, following three being released on Saturday, including an American dual citizen.
Importantly, Netanyahu declared that Israel and the US should “finish the job” against Iran, a week after Trump in a Fox interview said the choice is on Tehran – either they can do a new deal to monitor their nuclear energy program or possibly get bombed into submission.
Rubio called the Islamic Republic the greatest source of instability in the region, and as a longtime supporter of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
“Hamas cannot continue as a military or a government force… they must be eliminated,” Rubio additionally stated alongside Netanyahu, warning that the “gates of hell” could once again be opened against Hamas.
As for Netanyahu, he affirmed: “We discussed Trump’s bold vision for Gaza’s future and will work to ensure that vision becomes a reality.” This vision has been roundly rejected by Arab states, especially Egypt and Jordan.
Trump earlier this month restored “maximum pressure” and fresh sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, which reflects the policy of his first term, when he pulled the US out of the JCPOA nuclear deal with Tehran.
“Maybe they are trying to get new defense as we speak but their defense is largely gone… Iran is very nervous. I think they’re scared. I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them,” Trump had said in the remarks just under a week ago.
“Everybody thinks Israel with our help or our approval will go in and bomb the hell out of them,” Trump had added. “I would prefer that not happen. I’d much rather see a deal with Iran where we can do a deal, supervise, check it, inspect it,” the president continued.
That’s when Trump made one of the more interesting and provocative comments of the interview…
There’s two ways to stopping them: With bombs or a written piece of paper.
⚡️Iran is the single greatest source of instability in the region — US Secretary of State Rubio
So Rubio has reiterated this ultimatum from Jerusalem, with full approval of Netanyahu standing by his side. Iran has meanwhile said it won’t respond to such threats, and has described that even if it wanted a deal, it can no longer trust Washington given it agreed to the JCPOA nuclear deal under Obama, and then Trump pulled out of it in 2018.
END
ROBERT H AND JT HAYGOOD
BENGHAZI AFFAIR/THE TRUTH::
This makes a lot of sense and supports other stories about the reason Ambassador Stevens was in Libya. So General Petraeus was made the scapegoat by the felonious pair.
I think this might be the beginning of the declassified docs Trump is releasing. We knew some of the pieces, but this pulls it altogether and makes total sense now.
J.T. Haygood
So here’s the REAL story:
Ambassador Stevens was sent to Benghazi to secretly retrieve US made Stinger Missiles that the State Dept had supplied to Ansar al Sharia in Libya WITHOUT Congressional oversight or permission.
Sec State Hillary Clinton had brokered the Libya deal through Ambassador Stevens and a Private Arms Dealer named Marc Turi, but some of the shoulder fired Stinger Missiles ended up in Afghanistan where they were used against our own military. On July 25th, 2012, a US Chinook helicopter was downed by one of them. Not destroyed only because the idiot Taliban didn’t arm the missile. The helicopter didn’t explode, but it had to land and an ordnance team recovered the missile’s serial number which led back to a cache of Stinger Missiles kept in Qatar by the CIA.
Obama and Hillary were in full panic mode, so Ambassador Stevens was sent to Benghazi to retrieve the rest of the Stinger Missiles. This was a “do-or-die” mission, which explains the Stand Down Orders given to multiple rescue teams during the siege of the US Embassy.
It was the State Dept, NOT the CIA, that supplied the Stinger Missiles to our sworn enemies because Gen. Petraeus at CIA would not approve supplying the deadly missiles due to their potential use against commercial aircraft. So then, Obama threw Gen. Petraeus under the bus when he refused to testify in support of Obama’s phony claim of a “spontaneous uprising caused by a YouTube video that insulted Muslims.”
Obama and Hillary committed TREASON!
THIS is what the investigation is all about, WHY she had a Private Server, (in order to delete the digital evidence), and WHY Obama, two weeks after the attack, told the UN that the attack was the result of the YouTube video, even though everyone KNEW it was not.
Furthermore, the Taliban knew that the administration had aided and abetted the enemy WITHOUT Congressional oversight or permission, so they began pressuring (blackmailing) the Obama Administration to release five Taliban generals being held at Guantanamo.
Bowe Bergdahl was just a useful pawn used to cover the release of the Taliban generals. Everyone knew Bergdahl was a traitor but Obama used Bergdahl’s exchange for the five Taliban generals to cover that Obama was being coerced by the Taliban about the unauthorized Stinger Missile deal.
So we have a traitor as POTUS that is not only corrupt, but compromised, as well and a Sec of State that is a serial liar, who perjured herself multiple times at the Congressional Hearings on Benghazi. Perhaps this is why no military aircraft were called upon for help in Benghazi: because the administration knew that our enemies had Stinger Missiles that, if used to down those planes, would likely be traced back to the CIA cache in Qatar and then to the State Dept’s illegitimate arms deal in Libya.
Forward this again and again and again until everyone reads the true story of Benghazi.
END
I
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
High-Explosive Drone Pierces Shell Of Chernobyl Nuclear Plant At Very Moment Trump Pushes Ukraine Toward Peace
Friday, Feb 14, 2025 – 01:40 PM
On Friday just prior to high-level meetings among Western security officials and Ukrainian leadership commencing in Munich, including US Vice President J.D. Vance and Zelensky, there was a dangerous incident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine’s Kyiv oblast.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky accused Russia of launching a drone equipped with a high-explosive warhead at the historic, defunct power plant, site of the April 1986 nuclear disaster and meltdown. The drone reportedly hit the protective containment shell of the Chernobyl plant.
Zelensky’s office released footage showing an impact to the giant concrete and steel shield protecting the remains of the nuclear reactor. BBC writes that “The shield is designed to prevent further radioactive material leaking out over the next century. It measures 275m (900ft) wide and 108m (354ft) tall and cost $1.6bn (£1.3bn) to construct.”
And WaPo details further of the looming potential dangers:
In 2019, construction was completed on the New Safe Confinement — a $1.7 billion arch-shaped steel structure, which would contain the destroyed reactor. The site still contained some “200 tons of highly radioactive material,” according to the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, which helped finance the project.
Thus the situation is deeply alarming given the potential for a new radiation leak at the site which could impact the region, or even Europe. An IAEA team on the ground said it heard an explosion at around 01:50 local time coming from the New Safe Confinement (NSC) shelter. Photos showed flames at the top of the huge structure.
The UN agency is on high alert, but issued a statement saying the drone strike did not breach the plant’s inner containment shell. The IAEA also did not attribute blame, not identifying who sent the drone.
The Kremlin strongly rejected that it was behind the incident:
“There is no talk about strikes on nuclear infrastructure, nuclear energy facilities, any such claim isn’t true, our military doesn’t do that,” Peskov told reporters in a call.
Russian state media has meanwhile been warning of efforts by bad actors to sabotage Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine, after he held a 90-minute phone call with President Vladimir Putin this week.
Serious damage to the protective shield remains, which could present an ongoing serious safety issue at the site:
Simon Evans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) was head of the Chernobyl Shelter Fund, which oversaw the construction of the protective dome in the 2010s.
He described the apparent strike as “an incredibly reckless attack on a vulnerable nuclear facility”.
The shield “was never built to withstand external drone attack”, he told the BBC.
Given this, why would Russia at this very moment while Trump and Putin are trying to line up peace talks launch a high-explosive drone at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant?
Cui bono?…
Raise your hand if Zelensky is desperate enough to fake a Russian attack on Chernobyl to keep the US from attempting peace talks? Is he that stupid? pic.twitter.com/cQ1dJknhrX
Zelensky has asserted that Putin is not actually ready for or seeking legitimate negotiations, contradicting recent statements coming from the Trump White House.
On Friday, he claimed: “The only country in the world that attacks such sites, occupies nuclear power plants, and wages war without any regard for the consequences is today’s Russia.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate has in a fresh statement said that while the drone damaged “the external integrity” of the New Safe Confinement “and equipment in the crane maintenance garage” – it remains that there are no observable radiation spikes. “Firefighting efforts and damage assessment are ongoing,” it added.
Was this a desperate CHERNOBYL 2.0 ATTEMPT? Whodunnit?
Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war.
END
Russia vs UK/UKRAINE
UK’s Starmer: I’m Ready To Put British Troops In Ukraine
IDIOT!!
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announcing that the US does not see future NATO membership for Ukraine as a realistic possibility.
The latest shot across the bow is British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announcing that the UK is “ready and willing” to put British peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine, and stressing it’s essential that the West backs Kyiv toward “securing a lasting peace in Ukraine that safeguards its sovereignty for the long term” which essential” to deter Putin from “further aggression.” There is as yet no framework for negotiated peace in place, and yet Starmer is talking boots on the ground.
This was laid out in an op-ed the Telegraph newspaper published Sunday night. He sounded a similar note to other European leaders who have warned that Trump’s peace plan could cede all the immense sacrifices made defending Ukraine thus far.
“We must be clear that peace cannot come at any cost,” Starmer said. “Ukraine must be at the table in these negotiations, because anything less would accept Putin’s position that Ukraine is not a real nation.” He stressed: “The end of this war, when it comes, cannot merely become a temporary pause before Putin attacks again.”
This echoes current concerns out of Europe that Zelensky and the Ukrainians and European allies are being cut out of negotiations between Putin and Trump. For example, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb told reporters in Munich this weekend, “There’s no way in which we can have discussions or negotiations about Ukraine, Ukraine’s future or European security structure, without Europeans.”
“But this means that Europe needs to get its act together. Europe needs to talk less and do more.” he added. Macron, as well as German leadership have said similar things. But as Politico reports, there’s yet been little to indicate that Ukraine is directly involved in talk preparations:
The Trump administration has since sent mixed messages about Ukraine’s role in the peace talks. Over the weekend, POLITICO reported that senior Trump administration officials were heading to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations with Russians and Ukrainians — surprising Kyiv.
Starmer further wrote in his his op-ed: “While European nations must step up in this moment — and we will — U.S. support will remain critical and a U.S. security guarantee is essential for a lasting peace, because only the U.S. can deter Putin from attacking again.”
And he announced, “So I will be meeting President Trump in the coming days and working with him and all our G7 partners to help secure the strong deal we need.”
He acknowledged that more needs to be spent on defense, consistent with Trump admin pleas, and said he’d be telling colleagues at an emergency France-hosted summit of European leaders on Monday that “we have got to show we are truly serious about our own defence and bearing our own burden. We have talked about it for too long — and President Trump is right to demand that we get on with it.”
Not one British boot should march into Ukraine, Keir Starmer.
The public won’t stand for another reckless escalation—we want peace, not more bloodshed.
How about sending our troops where they’re actually needed—onto our borders to stop the illegal migration crisis?! pic.twitter.com/uShTC7p8xH
Trump might welcome Europeans’ willingness to send peacekeeping forces in the wake of a potential agreement with Moscow, given he has stressed that no US troops will ever be sent, and that it is Europe’s responsibility to shoulder the burden of its own security.
Meanwhile, one X user sounded off in response to the latest media headlines, saying, “People are angrier at Donald Trump for attempting to stop the war in Ukraine than at Keir Starmer for wanting to send British troops there to die. These people need a mental asylum.”
Meanwhile…
The pro-Ukraine war crowd has a new solution: global nuclear holocaust.https://t.co/yMWuTOoDbB
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DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Strong scholarship again by Dr. Peter McCullough as he asks a simple question by presenting decent data; nice work by Wrigley-Field et al. Death Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
Can we ask POTUS Trump since the mRNA vaccine was brought under him? Who should we ask? Who is responsible?
What happened in 2021? That coincides with the surge in deaths? All-cause mortality? What?
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
I have argued that the lockdowns and school closures killed and harmed, and much research has shown this.
Did POTUS Trump’s lockdowns, the Kariko Bancel Malone Bourla Sahin et al. mRNA gene LNP injection, cause this surge in deaths? As per the data below? Did Trump’s Operation Warp Speed (OWS) policies put young persons from 2020 onwards, into harm’s way where they could not get any care for chronic illnesses, and thus they progressed along the disease sequelae? Now the chickens are coming home to roost? When will POTUS Trump take responsibility for the damage from OWS and the vaccine?
When will POTUS Trump and his prior administration and Biden’s and all those involved explain to the American people what went wrong? Why was Bobby Jr. silenced? Does it make sense? Are big money payments to friends and families etc. to high-level government people inside of the USAID purge? Is it to cover up COVID crimes? We the people need to see all the data, and can it be that what we are being fed is a snippet? Why not the pure purge? By high-level people who all made money? Was this to find the data and disappear it? Can we be assured that data and information that is not good to certain people, is not destroyed? Who decides that? COVID big-money data? Very serious people asked me this question and I cannot answer it. What do you think? I am troubled by all of it. I trust no one in it. In this. No one.
Figure. Excess Mortality Rates by Cause Among Adults Aged 25-44 Years, 2011-2023
‘reports demonstrating increasing death in young adult groups are very worrisome because this group should be thriving. We know that people ages 25-44 years, had a far less than 1% mortality rate from acute COVID-19. However, the draconian lockdowns and contagion control measures occurred in 2020 and then the vaccines rolled out in 2021 and beyond. Wrigley-Field et al have published a stunning report on rapidly increasing death rates in the years running up and into the pandemic.’
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
end
Breaking Delta plane crashes as it lands in Toronto Canada, three survivors are in critical condition – including a child…developing…plane flipped over as it headed in to land…
A Delta passenger plane carrying 76 people crashed at Toronto’s Pearson Airport on Monday in yet another aviation disaster. appeared to land upside down shortly before 3pm.
Three survivors are in critical condition – including a child
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/COAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
SOUTH AFRICA
the plight of South Africa after being run by blacks for 30 year
(zerohedge)
Western Media Scrambles To Dismiss White Genocide Concerns In South Africa
Monday, Feb 17, 2025 – 05:45 AM
The western public has been hearing a lot about “genocide” in recent years, from the genocide of indigenous peoples, to the genocide of Palestinians to the genocide of trans people. The demand is that these concerns be taken seriously whether they are realistic or exaggerated, that reparations be distributed and that refugees be taken in by the millions. The underlying narrative is always the same – “White colonialism” is the ultimate culprit behind every social injustice in the world and marginalized minorities are perpetual victims that require protection.
But what happens when white people are the minority under attack?
That’s a question that’s simply not acceptable according to the establishment media, and any suggestion that such a thing is possible is treated as an act of xenophobia. White people can never be considered a “marginalized minority”. This is the conundrum the western public often encounters when the issue of South Africa is broached.
The country’s well known history of segregation and Apartheid, which was dismantled from 1990 to 1993, is publicized and dramatized constantly in the media and by Hollywood. However, the aftermath is barely discussed.
Nelson Mandela, a member of the South African Communist Party and a co-founder of the terrorist group “uMkhonto we Sizwe” in 1961, was elected the first black president of the nation in 1994 and rebranded as a civil rights hero akin to Martin Luther King. After a honeymoon period of around ten years the country’s economy went into a steady spiral. Unemployment has now exploded to over 30%.
South Africa’s economy is in dire straits, with many utilities in disarray and organized crime running the streets of primary metro areas. The current government isn’t even able to properly maintain fresh water and waste systems.
One sector of the South African economy that has continued to grow despite the greater financial turmoil has been farming and agriculture, led primarily by the “Boers” (white farmers or Afrikaners). They represent only 7% of the total population but make up 72% of the nation’s agricultural output. This is about to change drastically, though, as white farmers and their communities are increasingly demonized by communist political groups vying for power and control of private property.
One such group is the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema. Malema (and many other leaders) have consistently called for the murder of white farmers in South Africa. He refers to this idea as a “revolutionary necessity” even though black South Africans are the majority population and dominate the government. What power structure, exactly, would they be rebelling against?
As with all countries under socialist/communist influence, the habit when faced with economic crisis is to divert blame to convenient scapegoats and steal resources wherever possible. Often, farmers are the people most abused by leftist governments. In the case of South Africa, such abuse is rationalized by social justice ideology and the fact that most of the farmers are white (therefore, they deserve to be robbed or killed).
Despite media attempts to suppress news of white genocide there is an ongoing problem of violent attacks on whites in the region. It has become commonplace for families to hide within gated homes with steel doors (inside and outside) due to persistent targeting for robbery, rape and murder. Many are considering leaving the country entirely.
The calls for an exodus have increased after the current government under the African National Coalition (ANC) passed the Expropriation Act in 2024 allowing for the confiscation of private property based on “social equity” (race). This law gives authorities the ability to take land from anyone for reasons of equity and reparations. Though the law does not specifically name the Boers as a target, everyone in South Africa knows exactly what it means.
With the Trump Administration being the first to confront the South African problem directly, US and European journalists are scrambling to dismiss the issue as a “fabrication of the right wing”. Trump has cut off federal subsidies to the SA government in response to expropriation laws and has also offered possible refugee status to white South Africans.
The South African media and the western media have published stories telling farmers not to consider Trump’s offer, claiming that Americans are “hostile to refugees” and that the US would be a “dangerous place for them to live”. The argument is absurd, obviously. Americans have a problem with illegal immigrants and asylum seekers gaming the system, not legitimate refugees with their own wealth and valuable skill sets such as farming.
The media has launched a flurry of stories claiming that South Africans are “mocking Trump’s offer” and have no interest in escaping to the US. They say there is no threat to white people in the country and that the expropriation laws have nothing to do with the Boers. This, of course, is a lie.
Over 10,000 white farmers in SA have already expressed interest in relocating to the US, and the list is growing. Speaking to SABC News, Neil Diamond, president of the South African Chamber of Commerce in the USA, warned of a potential mass exodus of skilled agricultural professionals.
He noted that within just 18 hours of Trump’s executive order’s announcement, over 10,000 inquiries had been received from South Africans seeking information on refugee status and relocation to the US. He emphasized that the departure of experienced farmers could have severe consequences for South Africa’s food security, agricultural value chain, and economic stability.
In other words, South African race communists need the white farmers for food production, but they also want to use them as a scapegoat for political purposes, which could very well lead to genocide. Though many white farmers will surely want to stay and defend their homes, there is now doubt that they are aware of the growing dangers presented by their increasingly hostile government.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.04791UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 151.71 DOWN 0.426 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2597 UP 0.0018 OR 18 PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4175 UP 0.0003 (CDN DOLLAR UP 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.55 PTS OR 0.23%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.49PTS OR 0.17%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.15$
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 39.49TS OR 0.17%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.55 PTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.15%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 24.82 PTS OR 0.06%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2896.50
silver:$32.13
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 106.61 UP 4 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2540 ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2812
TURKISH LIRA: 36.27 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.418
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.469% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.698 DOWN 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.282 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2921.70
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.53
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 20.59 pts or 0.24%
German Dax : UP 238.32 pts or 1.06%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 11,94ts or 0.15%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 69.20PTS OR 0.40%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 428.83 PTS OR 1.13%
WTI Oil price 71.37 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 75.64 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.80 ROUBLE DOWN 0AND 31/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.50000 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6178UP 11 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.216 UP 11 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.906 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0494 UP 0.0032 OR 32 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR
British Pound: 1.2584 UP .0020OR 20basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4990 UP 0 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.346UP 8 BASIS BASIS PTS.
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152,29 DOWN 0.698 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.41974 DOWN .0019 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 19 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.67
Brent OIL: 74.66
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 15BASIS pts to 4.477
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 4.7000%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 5 PTS AT 4.263
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.128 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.826 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 10665 DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 36.23 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91,12 DOWN 1 AND 62/100 roubles
GOLD XXX(3:30 PM)
SILVER: XXX(3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN XXXXPTS OR 0.37%
NASDAQ 100 UP XXXXPTS OR 0XXXX%
VOLATILITY INDEX: XXX DOWN XXXPTS OR 2XXX%
GLD: $ XXXXOR DOWN XXX PTS OR XXX%
SLV/ $29.31 PTS OR DOWN 0.15 OR 0.51%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN XXXOR 0XXX%
end
OUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0454 down 0.0032 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 152.06 UP 0.606 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2595 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4205 UP 0.0025 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 25 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.86 PTS OR 0.26%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 252.16 PTS OR 1.12%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.65%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 252,16 PTS OR 1.12%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.86 PTS OR 0.26%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.65%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 194,14 PTS OR 0.47%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2911,20
silver:$32.35
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105.92 DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2540 ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2608
TURKISH LIRA: 36.23 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.389
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.469% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.698 DOWN 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.260 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2898.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.26
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 1.28 pts or 0.01%
German Dax : UP 46.41pts or 0.20%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 17.43 ts or 0.21%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 127.00PTS OR 0.98%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 226.43 PTS OR 0.59 %
WTI Oil price 70.83 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 74.84 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.83 ROUBLE DOWN 20AND 24/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4835 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5900UP 5 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.104 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.803DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0446 DOWN 0.0039 OR 39 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR
British Pound: 1.2606 DOWN .0014 OR 14 basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5570 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.418 UP 3 BASIS BASIS PTS.
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152,05 UP 0.612BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.41870 UP .0002 PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 2 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.75
Brent OIL: 75.79
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 4.556
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.7760%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 4.308
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.218 UP 11 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.907 UP 10 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 10665 DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 36.23 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91,12 DOWN 1 AND 62/100 roubles
GOLD 2,883,70 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 32,16 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 165.35 PTS OR 0.37%
NASDAQ 100 UP 83.97 PTS OR 0.38%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.77 DOWN 0.33PTS OR 2.19%
GLD: $ 266.29OR DOWN 4.02 PTS OR 1.,49%
SLV/ $29.31 PTS OR DOWN 0.15 OR 0.51%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 215.28PTS OR 0.84%
end
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE/
end
ZEROHEDGE/HEADLINE CLOSING MARKETS
USA DATA
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Surges Higher On Heels Of Soaring Inflation Fears
b
Tuesday, Feb 18, 2025 – 08:53 AM
Business activity in NY State has been volatile (according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey) in the last few months. After spiking on Trump’s election victory, the survey slumped back into contraction in December and January. But February saw activity re-ignite with a better than expected +5.7 print (0.0 exp)…
“Manufacturing activity edged higher in New York State in February. Input price increases picked up to the fastest pace in nearly two years, and optimism about the outlook dropped noticeably.”
There is a little here for everyone under the hood – New orders spiked in February BUT expectations for New Orders going forward plunged….
Source: Bloomberg
…and perhaps worse, inflation fears are accelerating…
Source: Bloomberg
Employment levels also moved lower.
So take your pick – sentiment higher, soaring inflation expectations, and lagging growth. Smells very stagflationary to us…
ECONOMIC NEWS/USA
Elon Musk’s DOGE Team Uncovers Over 25 Million People Ages 100+ in Social Security Database, Some Older Than the Constitution: “There are a Lot of Vampires Collecting Social Security”
Elon Musk was expected to remain offline Sunday night into Monday morning as his xAI team prepared for the highly anticipated debut of “Grok 3,” scheduled for release Monday evening at 8 p.m. EST. However, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), tasked with streamlining the federal bureaucracy, returned very excited to his social media platform around midnight, unveiling what “might be the biggest fraud in history.”
Musk posted a spreadsheet of Social Security Administration data showing “numbers of people in each age bucket with the death field set to FALSE!”
The data shows that 20.789 million Americans are collecting social security benefits over the age of 100. Drilling down into the age buckets, benefits are still being paid out to folks over 140!
“Maybe Twilight is real and there are a lot of vampires collecting Social Security,” Musk emphasized.
One X user pointed out that 2023 data showed the US population at around 334.9 million. However, Musk’s data (likely from DOGE’s ‘Big Balls’ analyst) shows 394 million names in the Social Security Administration database.
Musk responded: “Yes, there are FAR more “eligible” social security numbers than there are citizens in the USA. This might be the biggest fraud in history.”
“Maybe we pause payments to everyone 120+ until they can authenticate they’re among the living, to start,” Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) wrote on X in response to Musk’s post.
Collins is far too conservative. Lawmakers should freeze payments over the age bucket of 100 until a clear determination can be made where taxpayer funds are disappearing in this possible money pit that smells like fraud.
“If DOGE’s numbers are right, $522B—1/3 of ALL spending on Social Security each year—is fraudulent,” X user Robert Sterling said.
At a DOGE press conference last week in the White House, Musk said:
“If money is spent badly. If your taxpayer dollars are not spent in a sensible and frugal manner, then that’s not okay. Your tax dollars need to be spent wisely on the things that matter to the people,” Musk said.
“It’s just common sense. It’s not Draconian or radical. I think it’s really just saying let’s look at each of the expenditures and say, is this actually in the best interest of the people, and if it is, it’s approved, if it’s not, we should think about it,” he added.
“There’s crazy things, like, just a cursory examination of Social Security and we’ve got people in there that are about 150 years old,” Musk said. “Now, do you know anyone that’s 150? I don’t. OK. They should be on the Guinness Book of World Records, they’re missing out.”
“So, you know, that’s the case where, like, I think they’re probably dead is my guess, or they should be very famous. One of the two,” he added.
It now appears DOGE’s Big Balls has been heard at work using AI to uncover possible fraud in federal entitlements. So far, we have not verified the data Musk shared on X, but confirmation could be just ahead.
Stephen Miller EXPOSES MASSIVE FRAUD!
"Foreign nationals coming to the United States using fake Social Security numbers and fake identities to steal billions in taxpayers' benefits.
According to the Social Security database, these are the numbers of people in each age bucket with the death field set to FALSE! Maybe Twilight is real and there are a lot of vampires collecting Social Security
·
END
DOGE Finds $4.7 Trillion In Virtually Untraceable Treasury Payments
Tuesday, Feb 18, 2025 – 09:45 AM
The Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on Monday revealed its finding that $4.7 trillion in disbursements by the US Treasury are “almost impossible” to trace, thanks to a rampant disregard for the basic accounting practice of using of tracking codes when dishing out money.
Mind you, it’s not as if such a federal tracking system wasn’t already in place— it simply went casually unused for all sorts of payouts adding up to an almost unfathomable $4.7 trillion. Without Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) identification codes associated with those payouts, there’s little hope in figuring out where all that money went.
$4.7 trillion of OUR money went into a government blackhole.
“In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible,” DOGE announced via its X account. Thanks to DOGE, those “optional” days are over. “As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going,” DOGE added.
DOGE’s scrutiny of various government agencies is eliciting high-pitched shrieks from nearly every leftist in America, from establishment politicians who don’t want the curtain that hides their hijinks and grifting torn down, to your liberal sister-in-law who thinks the government has an endless supply of money and that it spends it all virtuously.
The US Treasury just tossed $4.7 Trillion of our tax dollars right out of the window.
Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back on portrayals of DOGE employees as reckless rogues. “These are highly trained professionals,” he told Bloomberg. “This is not some roving band going around doing things. This is methodical and it is going to yield big savings.”
In the wake of the latest revelation that makes normal people glad that DOGE teams are scouring the federal government, Democrats desperately tried to find a way to make it sound bad that DOGE exposed trillions in untraceable payouts and promptly instituted tighter accounting discipline. Here’s Wisconsin Rep Mark Pocan’s lame attempt:
Meanwhile, leftists have also been foaming at the mouth over news that DOGE staffers are looking into the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) books, as if they were going to start rerouting funds to Tesla. Considering Social Security is careening toward mandatory benefit cuts as soon as 2033, everyone should welcome a team of financial professionals making sure the system isn’t being drained by improper payments.
Of course, that appears to be exactly what’s been happening. On Sunday night, Musk said DOGE might be on the trail of “the biggest fraud in history,” as SSA data appears to show that 20.789 million Americans over the age of 100 are collecting Social Security retirement benefits. That includes 12 million who are purportedly over 120 years old.
Bent on derailing DOGE, Democrats have sued to prevent the organization from accessing federal data associated with the Office of Personnel Management, and the Health and Human Services, Education, Energy, Transportation, Labor and Commerce departments. On Monday, the federal judge handling the request for a restraining order expressed skepticism over Democrats’ challenge, noting that their “evidence” was largely media speculation about potential harms springing from DOGE’s activities: “The courts can’t act based on media reports. We can’t do that.“
A ruling is expected Tuesday. Here’s looking forward to DOGE proceeding to uncover a relentless string of scandals for months and months to come.
The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has terminated more than 1,000 workers, the agency said on Feb. 13.
Some of the employees who were fired were probationary employees, or had been with the agency for less than two years. None of the terminated workers were in “mission-critical positions,” the agency said in a statement.
The VA expects the terminations to cut costs by more than $98 million per year.
“At VA, we are focused on saving money so it can be better spent on Veteran care. We thank these employees for their service to VA. This was a tough decision, but ultimately it’s the right call to better support the Veterans, families, caregivers, and survivors the department exists to serve,” VA Secretary Doug Collins said.
“To be perfectly clear: these moves will not negatively impact VA health care, benefits or beneficiaries. In the coming weeks and months, VA will be announcing plans to put these resources to work helping Veterans, their families, caregivers and survivors.”
The terminations were attributed to President Donald Trump’s focus on making the government more efficient.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), run by Elon Musk, has been reviewing various agencies in recent weeks as part of the effort.
The Trump administration also offered buyouts to government workers. About 75,000 workers accepted the buyouts before the program closed, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday.
Trump signed an executive order earlier in the week that said the administration would hire no more than one worker for every four employees that depart.
The order also said that each agency head shall work with DOGE to ensure that new hires are in high-need areas and that vacancies should not be filled if DOGE advises against it.
“Now, agency heads will coordinate and consult with DOGE to significantly shrink the size of the federal workforce and limit hiring to essential positions only,” Leavitt told reporters during a press conference on Wednesday.
VA employees who accepted the buyout offer, which keeps workers employed and paid through Sept. 30, were exempt from the new round of terminations, Collins said.
Among those fired at the VA were researchers who were “told to immediately stop their research and pack their bags,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a former chairwoman of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, said in a statement.
She accused Trump and Musk of enacting “indiscriminate cuts and arbitrary mass firings” and said she’s demanding the VA provide her with details about the terminations.
“For years the VA has been grossly understaffed, which has only made it harder for our nation’s veterans to receive care. These reckless firings will only exacerbate this issue,” the American Federation of Government Employees said in a statement posted to social media platform X.
Musk and Trump have defended the moves.
“It’s not optional for us to reduce the federal expenses. It’s essential. It’s essential for America to remain solvent as a country, and it’s essential for America to have the resources necessary to provide things to its citizens and not simply be servicing vast amounts of debt,” Musk told reporters at the White House this week.
“What we’re trying to do is reduce government. We have too many people,” Trump added later.
The VA had about 472,000 employees as of early 2024, including part-time and seasonal employees. The VA still has more than 43,000 probationary employees, Collins said on Thursday.
END
Jobs Trashed: Waste Management To Fire 5,000 Whose Jobs Will Be “Automated”
Monday, Feb 17, 2025 – 06:55 AM
Houston-based Waste Management will continue to shed jobs in 2025 by reducing dependency on roles that require physical labor and turning more to technology and automation for its services, Govt Tech Insider reported.
“There has been a long-term plan to not backfill specific vacated roles. By 2026, we’re anticipating that will lead to the reduction of about 5,000 positions,” said Kelly Caplan, senior director of external communications. ”At the same time, increased automation is reducing the demand for these types of labor-intensive roles.”
The waste-and-recycling business has its headquarters in Houston. According to Stock Analysis, the company had about 48,000 employees at the end of 2023.
The Wall Street Journal reported in January that about 1,000 positions will be impacted in 2025 eliminating about 650 trucking positions by modernizing its fleet. Upgrades to its recycling plant in 2025 will reduce that workforce by 350.
“WM is increasing the use of technology and automation which will reduce labor dependency for roles that are challenging to recruit and retain across North America,” according to a statement from the company. “Technology is helping us mitigate the business risk associated with high attrition rates for these roles — a challenge not only for WM but for the industry at large. We’ve had a long-term plan to implement technology solutions when available for hard-to-fill roles.”
On Jan. 30, Waste Management Chief Executive Jim Fish spoke to Jim Cramer about the future of the Waste Management workforce.
“Our average heavy equipment operator is approaching 53 years old. It becomes difficult to find folks to drive a truck or to work on a piece of heavy equipment,” Fish said on the show. “So this is almost by necessity that we’re using technology to replace difficult-to-hire roles. I think one thing that I wanted to make sure I was clear about on here, though, is we’re not laying folks off. All we’re doing is using attrition. Some of those jobs have very high turnover rates.”
He estimated the turnover for those working at the back of the truck was as high as 50%.
In 2024, Waste Management struck a deal to acquire medical waste services provider Stericycle. Based outside Chicago in Bannockburn, Ill., Stericycle provides medical waste collection, compliance and secure information destruction services, according to a Houston Chronicle report last year.
END
The CPI Is Deeply Flawed & The Fed Feeds Those Flaws
The Fed makes horrendous policy decisions because it does not understand inflation.
CPI and wage data from the BLS, chart by Mish
Percentage Increases Since 2022
CPI: 13.0 Percent
Rent: +20.1 percent
Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER): +19.7 Percent
Index of Hourly Wages: +14.1 Percent
Hooray! Wages Are Up More than the CPI
Q: Really? A: Yes but Hell No
Q: Yes for Who? A: People who own their own home.
Q: Hell No for Who? A: People who rent.
OER vs Rent
OER is the price one would pay to rent their own house from themselves, unfurnished without utilities. It is a whopping 26.38 percent of the CPI.
Rent is just what one would think, but always unfurnished without utilities to make the same comparisons. Rent is 7.50 percent of the CPI.
Q: Does anyone pay OER? A: No silly. No one rents their own house from themselves.
People who own they own home either own it free and clear or have a mortgage. If the former, they pay property taxes, insurance, and utilities. If the latter, also add in a mortgage payment.
But mortgages, for those who have them, are fixed. They do not go up like rent. On those grounds, people who do not understand inflation, especially asset inflation including houses, believe the CPI is overstated.
Q: What about renters? A: The BLS says rent is 7.50 percent of the CPI. But also add in OER to arrive at 33.78 percent that the BLS applies to everyone.
The problem with a 33.78 percent is many people pay far more than 33.78 percent of their income on rent.
Those who do have been clobbered by inflation. The home ownership rate is 65.7 percent making the renter share 34.3 percent.
Those who rent are also more likely to have credit card debt and student loans. Interest on credit cards is not part of the CPI. Nor are housing prices.
Is the CPI Understated?
That is what the proponents of Truflation tout. They believe inflation is only up 2.06 percent from a year ago.
Truflation does not count home prices as part of inflation, it downplays OER, and it uses measures of rent based on new leases only (about 10 percent of he market).
It’s a horribly flawed measure.
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
CPI year-over-year data from the BLS, chart by Mish
Year-over-year the CPI is up 3.0 percent with rent up 4.6 percent.
Those who spend a huge portion of their income on rent, their own medical insurance, or student loans will scoff at the notion of 2.1 percent truflation or even 3.0 percent CPI inflation.
So will anyone looking to buy a house, many of whom have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford one.
The Fed’s Role
Like the CPI and the ridiculous Truflation model, the Fed also ignores home prices. And when the Fed slashed interest rates to zero in the pandemic, mortgage rates fell to 3.0 percent or less.
Anyone with a mortgage refinanced putting extra money in their pocket every month to spend.
Those hoping to buy, watched home prices soar out of sight only to watch the Fed and other clueless economists say home prices don’t constitute inflation.
Two Economies
We have two economies, one for asset holders and another for non-asset holders.
It was the non-asset holders (young voters and Blacks) who switched to Trump and swung the election.
I posted that view many times in 2024, well in advance of the election.
Asset bubbles also contribute to strong spending for roughly 2/3 of the nation while the other third is in misery.
Economists like Krugman still praise the Biden economy.
Looking Ahead
I see budget deficits as far as the eye can see, and Trump will increase them.
Trump repeated that call after the disastrous CPI report.
Instead, he should have blamed the Fed for cutting rates before the election.
IB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
VDH
KING REPORT
The King Report February 18, 2025 Issue 7432
Independent View of the News
@elonmusk: According to the Social Security database, these are the numbers of people in each age bucket with the death field set to FALSE! Maybe Twilight is real and there are a lot of vampires collecting Social Security. (>20m over age 100!) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076 @aidenHIKO: 394,943,364 but total population is 334M? @elonmusk: Yes, there are FAR more “eligible” social security numbers than there are citizens in the USA. This might be the biggest fraud in history. The number of US citizens eligible for social security is closer to 310M… The REAL reason so many Democrats are upset about entitlements (social security, medical, etc) fraud investigations is that they are using your taxpayer money as handouts to attract and retain ILLEGAL immigrants. Their future voters. That’s what it’s all about.
@DOGE: The Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) is an identification code linking a Treasury payment to a budget line item (standard financial process). In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible. As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going…
US January Retail Sales tumbled 0.9%; -0.2% was expected; December revised to 0.75 from 0.4% Ex-Auto Sales -0.4%, +0.3% consensus, December revised to 0.7% from 0.4% Ex-Auto & Gas Sales -0.5%; +0.3% expected, December revised to 0.5% from 0.3%
US January Industrial Production 0.4% m/m, 0.3% expected; Dec to 1.0% from 0.9% Manufacturing Production -0.1%, +0.1% consensus, December revised to 0.5% from 0.6%
Friday’s session was an exceptionally boring event with abysmal volume.
@DonMiami3: Just 15.5 million shares traded on SPY today thru 3pm… with a Monday holiday.
ESHs vacillated between small gains and losses during Nikkei trading on Friday. They rallied after 22:00 ET. The 7-handle rally ended at 21:09 ET; ESHs then traded sideways until they broke lower during the final 30 minutes of Nikkei trading. After the 1:00 ET Nikkei close, ESHs rallied from 6139.00 to 6146.75 at 2:27 ET. ESHs then commenced a decline that took ESHs to a daily low of 6121.25 at 6:46 ET.
The usual buying for the NYSE open, augmented by buying for the Friday Rally, propelled ESHs to 6145.25 at 10:09 ET. A 5-wave decline took ESHs down to 6125.75 at 12:43 ET. The afternoon rally pushed ESHs to 6143.00 at 13:50 ET. ESHs then stair-stepped lower until the hit 6130.75 at 15:49 ET. The late ESH manipulation forced ESHs to 638.00 at 15:54 ET.
Alas, too many traders were long ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend. ESHs sank to 6128.75 at 16:01 ET.
OpenAI’s efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall OpenAI’s last great effort at pure scaling – has failed. We can infer that they want to ship it, now, because they can get no further with it. But we can also infer that they don’t want to call it GPT-5 — presumably because nobody would take it seriously as AGI… Second, pure scaling will no longer be the means of attack. Instead, OpenAI will be throwing the kitchen sink at future efforts to build GPT-5 , including “test-time-compute”, a new approach that involves longer, more expensive inference times rather than “constant time inference” of GPT-4-like models, as well as (I suspect) massive amounts of synthetic data, which appears to work better for semi-closed domains like math and coding than in the open-ended real world… https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure
Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied sharply; the NY Fang+ Index rallied 0.43%. Bonds rallied moderately on the usual post-auction rally Commodities retreated even though the dollar declined sharply
Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA declined 165.35; ESHs declined during the final two hours.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Meta rallied for the 20th straight session. When will the bubble burst? The US Dollar sank to a 2-month low. WHY?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6116.57 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6127.47; 6107.62
@lsferguson: 60 MINUTES CAUGHT IN ANOTHER MAJOR LIE! Distraught Victim (of DOGE cuts) Is Actually Samantha Power’s Former Speech Writer – ENTIRE SEGMENT A COMPLETE SCAM! https://x.com/lsferguson/status/1891526141212553269
DOGE – A Lawyer’s Perspective Trump did NOT actually create a new agency. Instead what he did was repurpose an existing agency – the USDS – into something more useful… The USDS was an Obamacare office created to make government software better. This group was essentially software development for the bureaucracy. Trump renamed the United States Digital Service (USDS) the United States DOGE Service which even kept the acronym the same. Not only did repurposing an appropriate existing department allow Trump to ensure there was funding for DOGE without having to fight with Congress – it also ensured its legality. At the same time Trump also wanted to bring in Elon Musk… and his team for an initial major audit/clean sweep. To do this Trump referenced another law 5 USC 3161. This law governs the creation of and staffing for what is known as a “temporary organization” in the government. This temporary group will focus on pushing the DOGE agenda and will exist for 18 months (though their work will survive). By including this group as temporary, Trump dodged several potential lawsuits as he may not have been able to create his own new administrative entity on a permanent basis without Congressional approval… Trump orders all agencies to support the DOGE initiative, disclaims any other prior EOs that could interfere with this order, and makes a conflict of laws statement. This was further insulation to make this harder for political opponents to fight in court… https://tomrenz.substack.com/p/doge-a-lawyers-perspective?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
@tpfinitiative: Obama himself stated he didn’t need Congress to cut wasteful government spending. So don’t waste my time with your pathetic lies; here’s the clip for all to see. Now watch as your foolish argument withers and dies in the face of cold, undeniable truth. https://x.com/tpfinitiative/status/1890309828998004966
@KanekoaTheGreat: A 40-minute compilation of President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore cutting the federal workforce, eliminating agencies, slashing wasteful spending and regulations, and reducing the deficit. You know, like Trump, Musk, and DOGE. https://t.co/rqPRZguJpM
@NEWSMAX: Former White House Deputy Press Secretary Hogan Gidley told Newsmax on Friday that it’s “baffling” to see “Democrats are on record out in front, supporting advocating fraud, waste and abuse inside the federal government.”
Musk business associate Jason Calacanis: “I’ve had conversations with @elonmusk … The stuff that’s going to come out is going to be mind boggling. The amount of grift, the amount of criminal behavior and obviously waste is just so staggering … If we don’t get this debt under control, it’s existential.”Full… https://t.co/nFOTOAY36R
Eruption in “BleachBit,” “Wipe Hard Drive,” “Offshore Bank” Searches in DC Suggest Deep State Panic Mode https://t.co/ZGPCTQYPSH
@elonmusk: I’ve had a top-secret clearance for many years and have clearances that themselves are classified. That said, FAR too much information is made “classified”. If something is easily found online or patently obvious, it should NOT be classified. This impedes effective communication…
GOP Rep: “@elonmusk does have a security clearance, he has a top-secret security clearance, by God he makes the rockets for NASA!But the suggestion that he somehow can’t be trusted to dig in to how we’re spending our money is nothing but a smokescreen to hide the corruption and the wasteful spending that has occurred there!”https://x.com/TONYxTWO/status/1890161878225285328
@MarioNawfal: ACTIVIST JUDGE WHO BLOCKED TRUMP’S SPENDING FREEZE HAS HIDDEN MONEY TIES – Federal Judge John McConnell failed to disclose his role at Crossroads Rhode Island while ruling against Trump’s spending freeze. His non-profit received $128M in government funding during his 18-year board tenure, including $42M from 2020-2023. Rhode Island, a plaintiff in the case, already sent his organization $2.9M in 2025. The judge ordered federal funds to keep flowing to states—and coincidentally, to his own non-profit. Federal law requires judges to recuse themselves when their impartiality might be questioned. https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1891278897536176326
@mrddmia: This is insane. A DC federal judge has ordered the commander-in-chief not to bring home overseas foreign-service officers. This is lawless. https://x.com/mrddmia/status/1890255899060769145
@JerryDunleavy: Chinese Foreign Ministry seems to reject Trump’s suggestion that China, Russia, & U.S. reduce their defense budgets: “The U.S. side has been advocating ‘America First,’ then it should be the first to cut military spending.” CCP appears in no mood to halt their historic buildup. https://x.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1890434515559981452
We await Arab alternative to Trump’s Gaza plan: Rubio Rubio cautioned that “any plan that allows Hamas to remain in the Gaza Strip will be problematic because Israel will not tolerate it, effectively returning the situation to square one.”… Rubio noted that Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host an Arab summit within two weeks, after which “they will present us with a plan.”… https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2025/02/14/we-await-arab-alternative-to-trumps-gaza-plan-rubio/
@elonmusk on DJT getting only 6.6% of DC vote: Yes, the bureaucracy is overwhelmingly geared to serve the Democratic Party.
“F***ing Zoom”: Jamie Dimon Launches into Tirade, Railing on Complacency, Work from Home, at JPM Meetinghttps://t.co/BWMU5oP6D1
@charliebilello: Over 11% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2011. (Wait until the DC Depression hits!) https://t.co/rQuXrxVpWs
Monday: Nikkei +0.06%, CSI 300 +0.21%, Hang Seng -0.02%, Shanghai +0.27%, Shenzhen +0.75% Euro Stoxx 50 +0.48%, FTSE +0.41%, CAC +0.13%, DAX +1.26% on def stocks, MIB +0.92%
Trump on Monday: On Trade, I have decided, for purposes of Fairness, that I will charge a RECIPROCAL Tariff meaning, whatever Countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them – No more, no less! For purposes of this United States Policy, we will consider Countries that use the VAT System, which is far more punitive than a Tariff, to be similar to that of a Tariff… For many years, the U.S. has been treated unfairly by other Countries, both friend and foe. This System will immediately bring Fairness and Prosperity back into the previously complex and unfair System of Trade… https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1891572283161944433?t=e4B34dhbytxbsrAuv0Fvyg
@elonmusk: Who is confirming that gold wasn’t stolen from Fort Knox? Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not. That gold is owned by the American public! We want to know if it’s still there.
@BasedMikeLee: As a U.S. senator I’ve tried repeatedly to get into Fort Knox. Fort Knox: “You can’t come to Fort Knox.” Me: “Why?” Fort Knox: “It’s a military installation.” Me: “I’m a senator; I go to military bases all the time.” Fort Knox: “You still can’t come. Because you can’t.”
Today – Traders will play for the Monday Rally, though it is Tuesday, abetted by the significant rallies on European bourses on Monday. Perhaps despite Euro solons’ whining and outrage, Trump is NOT fomenting the end of Western Civilization. Instead, he might be facilitating the transformation of socialist Europe into something more productive.
ESHs are +10.50; NQHs are +38.50; and USHs are -13/32 at 20:15 ET.
Expected economic data: Feb Empire Mfg. -1.0; Feb NAHB Housing Market Index 47; SF Fed Pres Daly 10:20 ET, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr 13:00 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6008; 100-day MA: 5927; 150-day MA: 5791; 200-day MA: 5681 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,761; 100-day MA: 43,376; 150-day MA: 42,452; 200-day MA: 41,605 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6114.63 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5382.09 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5745.10 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5964.75 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 6088.17 triggers a sell signal
Sunday reports have Trump considering the removal of the US from NATO. To procure more security and territory for Ukraine, don’t be surprised if this becomes a part of the Ukraine-Russia peace plan.
@visegrad24: JD Vance speaks at the Munich Security Conference about yesterday’s Islamist car-ramming terror attack in Munich. He asks how many more such terror attacks people in the West will have to experience before things change. He says Europeans never voted in favor of mass-immigration. https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1890433933856190790
@JackPosobiec: VANCE: The citizens of our nations are not interchangeable cogs in a global economy
JD Vance says biggest danger in Europe is censorship — not Russia or China: ‘Threat from within’ “What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.” Vance accused European leaders of using “Soviet-era words like misinformation and disinformation” to suppress dissenting ideas — rather than engaging in debate with their own people to figure out what they are fighting for. “I believe deeply that there is no security if you’re afraid of the voices, the opinions and the conscience that guide your very own people,” he said, adding there’s “nothing” Europe can do for the US if they are “afraid” of their citizens… “If American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg scolding, you can survive a few months of Elon Musk,” he said of the 22-year-old environmental activist from Sweden. The vice president went on to call out Romania for cancelling its elections due to concerns about Russian interference, religious persecution in Europe, cases where those praying in front of abortion clinics were fined thousands and the Munich Security Conference banning populist lawmakers from taking the stage… “if your democracy can be destroyed by digital advertising from a foreign country, it wasn’t very strong to begin with.”… Vance also said there is “nothing more urgent” than countering the issue of mass migration that has come to Europe… https://trib.al/dMpGqIs
@EvaVlaar: It happened again. This Syrian migrant stabbed a 14 y/o Austrian boy to death and injured 5 others today in Villach, Austria. He proudly smiles after the fact. I wasn’t exaggerating when I said this happens daily in Europe: A one-sided civil war is waged on us Europeans. https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1890854398504361990
@charliekirk11: Why Vance’s Speech Matters JD Vance traveled to the Munich Security Conference as America’s representative with a very important message for the whole continent: There is a new agenda in Washington. For 80 years, America has been the hegemon over Europe. For decades, that made us the defenders of liberty and democratic government. But over the past 30 years, our role became something very different. The elites at our state department saw their priorities as promoting a globalist agenda rather than protecting Western Civilization. That meant prioritizing mass immigration over everything else. It meant gutting free speech to make sure nobody could complain about it. It meant shutting down any political party that tried to stand against it. Meanwhile, the elites in our defense establishment haven’t outgrown the 1980s. They crave war, specifically with Russia. So today, we exist in a ridiculous reality. The European Union has become a fake, failed experiment, ruined by a mixture of mass immigration and left-wing malaise.They can’t generate electricity. Their economies are moribund. They won’t pay to defend themselves, and instead count on America to do it. They’re basically just giant museums. The continent that gave us Charlemagne, Isaac Newton, and Albert Einstein has become a giant welfare program to support Arabs, Afghans, and Africans. Their slogan might as well be “Europeans Last.” And today, @JDVance rolled in and called them all out.
@EndWokeness: CBS: “Is posting an insult a crime?” German prosecutors: “Yes” CBS: “Is it a crime to repost a lie?” German prosecutors: “Yes” https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1891302425190863347 @JDVance: Insulting someone is not a crime, and criminalizing speech is going to put real strain on European-US relationships. This is Orwellian… everyone in Europe and the US must reject this lunacy. @elonmusk: Absolutely! Throwing people in prison for memes or because they insulted a politician in Germany is madness.
CBS “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan to Rubio: “You’re standing in a country where free speech was weaponized to commit a genocide.” Rubio: “Free speech was not weaponized to commit a genocide. The genocide was committed by an authoritarian Nazi regime.” https://x.com/mtracey/status/1891200759317803176
@DavidSacks: This is an absolute rock-bottom moment for the Legacy Media. According to Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan, the Holocaust happened because the genocidal Nazi regime, which defined totalitarianism for the 20th century, allowed too much free speech. The media is so committed to the narrative that “Trump is Hitler” that anything the administration does must be portrayed as fascist. Hence, if VP Vance gives a speech urging the Europeans to live up their values on free speech, it must now be the case that free speech is a Nazi value. History must be retconned accordingly. Goebbels himself would be impressed by the audacity of this Big Lie!… You can see the hesitation on Brennan’s face and hear it in her voice… She starts to realize the foolishness of her argument, but it’s too late for her to turn back, leading her into an absurd cul-de-sac. This represents the entire Legacy Media. Their pathological hatredof Trump has led them into a cul-de-sac of absurdity and irrelevance. They have zero credibility left.
@libsoftiktok: WSJ just got a Community Note for making up lies and intentionally being dishonest about what VP Vance said. Another CN win!https://t.co/Pqk0I4P4Yv
@WSJ: Exclusive: Vance pledged to hit Russia with sanctions and potentially military action if Putin won’t agree to a peace deal that guarantees Ukraine’s independence (Liar, liar pants on fire!)
@Surabees: Read the headline Wall Street Journal printed next to the actual transcript of the interview with @JDVance. This is one of the most intentionally dishonest things I’ve seen in a long time. When Did @WSJ turn into the Huffington Post? https://x.com/Surabees/status/1890387169572716984/photo/1 @Liberacrat: When Murdoch allowed BlackRock to invest in WSJ @JDVance: President Trump is the ultimate deal maker and will bring peace to the region by ending the war in Ukraine. As we’ve always said, American troops should never be put into harm’s way where it doesn’t advance American interests and security. This war is between Russia and Ukraine. The fact that the WSJ twisted my words in the way they did for this story is absurd, but not surprising considering they have spent years pushing for more American sons and daughters in uniform to be unnecessarily deployed overseas.
The globalist/elitist/Establishment WSJ survives not only on government largesse, but also corporations that pay for individual or bulk subscriptions.
@EricLDaugh: RACHEL MADDOW: The taxpayers of the U.S. will now buy armored Tesla production units? This is PROFOUNDLY CORRUPT… RIPPING us all off. WATTERS: That contract was awarded to Elon Musk by… Joe Biden. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1890446691985240391
@paulsperry_: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently called out his former Fox colleague Pentagon correspondent Jen Griffin as a “Democrat” who hates Trump but unrevealed are records showing Griffin’s oldest daughter worked in the Biden White House and gave money to Biden’s campaign The Trump FCC is investigating the employer of Pentagon correspondent Jen Griffin’s husband–NPR–where Griffin also worked before covering the Pentagon for Fox News. An ally of Gen. Mark Milley, Griffin and her husband are said to share national security sources. FOX Jen Griffin’s husband, NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre, has slammed Trump for his handling of national security issues, once claiming he “has not talked about [national security] or thought about it in a serious way.” Myre’s parents are DNC donors.
GOP @SenMullin: After weaponizing the FBI against @POTUS, Dems are throwing up useless procedural hurdles on KashPatel… @SenateDems KNOW they will fail— just like w/ Pete, Tulsi, & Bobby. We have the votes to confirm Kash. It begs the question: do Dems have something to hide?
Special counsel Jack Smith discloses ‘gift’ of $140,000 in free legal services (Before he resigned) https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/14/jack-smith-justice-department-019350 U.S. Attorney (for DC) Ed Martin (@USAEdMartin): Save your receipts, Smith and Covington. We’ll be in touch soon. #NoOneIsAboveTheLaw
@DefiyantlyFree: Covington & Burlington gifted Jack Smith 140,000 in pro-bono legal work in the Trump case. The services were provided by one of the partners. That firm was the firm that represented the Biden campaign and vetted VP nominees for Harris…
@DougMackeyCase: Trump Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove accepts New York US Attorney Danielle Sassoon’s resignation in explosive letter: “You lost sight of the oath that you took when you started at the Department of Justice by suggesting that you retain discretion to interpret the Constitution in a manner inconsistent with the policies of a democratically elected President and a Senate-confirmed Attorney General.”Full letter https://x.com/DougMackeyCase/status/1890225341026734591
@mrddmia: Dear Resigning DOJ Prosecutors: Why didn’t any of you resign when Biden pardoned his corrupt family? Or when Biden freed from death row a monster who killed two FBI agents?Or when the Biden DOJ targeted political enemies, parents, and Christians? Save your fake tears. In 2009, Kristen Clarke—who later led the Biden DOJ Civil Rights Division—lobbied the Obama Justice Department to drop charges against New Black Panther Party members who threatened Philly voters and poll workers. Any federal prosecutor resign in protest?https://t.co/nyNNfkg2Tm Dear U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York: You aren’t the “Sovereign District.” You report to the Deputy Attorney General, who reports to the Attorney General, who reports to the President. The Trump 47 DOJ made clear it won’t tolerate insubordination. (The SDNY and its media allies have bragged for decades that the SDNY was its own Justice Dept.) AP’s @TaraCopp: The Trump administration has reversed the firings of all but 28 of the nuclear weapons workers that @DOGE blindly cut last week. One of the hardest hit plants was Pantex — near Amarillo, Texas — where 30 percent of the cuts took place. The nuclear weapons role of those workers and the feds who oversee it is one of the most sensitive missions in the US.
@lsferguson: President Trump has his Fulton County mugshot outside of the Oval Office. Everyone entering, including Democrats have to see this. The ultimate drag!
New Jersey teacher investigated for social media posts advocating for Trump assassination https://t.co/rY6e7IUYoQ
@amuse: The secretive federal judge (Amir Ali) that ordered Trump to resume sending taxpayer dollars to foreign NGOs was born in Canada and appointed by Biden. Before taking the bench he ran a Soros-funded NGO. https://t.co/LmKCoXeLzk
@RepThomasMassie: USAID funded an organization that fabricated evidence which was used to impeach President Trump. The Deep State frequently funds regime change efforts abroad, but when it uses taxpayer money to undermine our own government, isn’t that treason? https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1890186529676447864
@realchrisrufo: The Department of Education funded an NGO which promotes the idea that the American public school system is a “concentration camp” designed to “harm black and brown children.” “There’s gas chambers everywhere, and I’m part of that system.” https://t.co/c2v4ci5VlV
@Peoples_Pundit: And there were people who said it was hyperbolic to claim legacy media are pro-assassination…They’ve been the primary contagion for mass shootings targeting children, for DECADES. What’s a few political and corporate targets? That’s who they are.
Liberal women are far more likely to feel lonely often, poll shows The 2024 American Family Survey reportedly found that 37% of conservative women and 28% of moderate women, between the ages of 18-40, reported being “completely satisfied” with their lives, but just 12% of liberal women in the same age group said the same… “We’ve seen in the research that conservative women tend to be more likely to embrace a sense of agency and to have the sense that they are not, in any way, the victim of larger structural realities or forces,” he told Fox News Digital. “They’re also less likely to catastrophize about public events and concerns,” and “more likely to think of themselves as captains of their own fate,” Wilcox added. https://nypost.com/2025/02/14/lifestyle/new-poll-shows-liberal-women-the-most-unhappy-lonely/
Why So Blue: Liberal Women are Less Happy, More Lonely. But Why? Young liberal women are especially prone nowadays to reporting poor mental health. This was the discovery that Zach Goldberg made almost five years ago pouring over Pew data in the spring of 2020. Liberal young women are less likely to be integrated into core American institutions—specifically marriage and religion—that lend meaning, direction, and a sense of solidarity to women’s lives… https://ifstudies.org/blog/why-so-blue-liberal-women-are-less-happy-more-lonely-but-why
Disaffected people often seek fraternity and fulfillment in causes. After the South turned GOP about 3 decades ago, the media regularly noted that the far-right fringe attracted white supremacists. They have been silent about the lunatic left attracting disaffected women and some men over the past few decades.
Furthermore, US culture over the past several decades has promoted disaffection, violence, and myriad self-destructive emotions, including hate and animosity toward family figures.
The US has disastrously progressed from “Ozzie & Harriet,” “Father Knows Best,” “The Wonder Years,” and even “The Cosby Show” to antisocial and hateful media offerings. And ‘back then,’ most households did not have latchkey children. Fifties and early Sixties children, due to safe neighborhoods and vigilant neighbors, were largely ‘cage free’ kids. This allowed them to develop interpersonal skills and conflict resolution without helicopter parents gaming games and relationships.
White House scorches ‘moron’ left-wing senator for seething over ‘obvious’ Trump family parody account – The White House slammed Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy as a “moron” on social media after the Connecticut lawmaker posted an expletive-riddled admonishment against a Lara Trump parody account he seemingly believed belonged to the president’s daughter-in-law. “You are a moron, Chris. It is obvious this page is not affiliated with President Trump, his family, or the administration. We do, however, support your right to make such a statement, no matter how imbecilic it makes you look,” the White House’s X account, Rapid Response 47, said in a message posted on Friday… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-scorches-moron-left-wing-senator-seething-over-obvious-trump-family-parody-account
@visegrad24: Never forget that this was an actual campaign in Finland that was supposed to stop the increase in sexual violence against women out on the streets. (The stupidity of this is mind-addling!) https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1890912381422678460
@disclosetv: Meret Schneider, Green Party member and National Councilor in Switzerland, believes that Elon Musk’s X is “endangering democracy” and “if necessary, must be blocked.” https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1891465128631054473
How the Chinese Communist Party has conquered Hollywood since the 90https://t.co/q7kgbX8yUw Hollywood hasn’t released a movie featuring China as the villain in more than a generation…These days, Chinese censors rarely need to suppress movies because American filmmakers do it themselves. Movie projects casting even the slightest aspersions on China rarely escape the planning stages…
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Hochul’s Former Aide Faces New Charges In Chinese Spy Case
Linda Sun, former deputy chief of staff to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, and Sun’s husband, Chris Hu, are facing additional charges in a case that allegesthey acted as agents of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Sun and Hu were arrested and charged in September 2024 in a case that is part of the Department of Justice’s broader effort to root out communist China’s secret agents, who U.S. officials say are covertly advancing the CCP’s interests and targeting Chinese dissidents on U.S. soil in an effort known as transnational repression.
On Feb. 11, Sun and Hu pleaded not guilty at a hearing in Brooklyn federal court, prosecutors said, adding that the money laundering charge against the two had been amended to include additional legal statutes.
Hu also pleaded not guilty to three additional money laundering counts, according to prosecutors.
A superseding indictment filed on Feb. 4 didn’t provide more details other than saying that Hu’s charges were connected to three separate financial transactions totaling $1.5 million in 2020.
A spokesperson for federal prosecutors declined to comment beyond what was stated in the superseding indictment.
Jarrod Schaeffer, one of Sun’s attorneys, said the revised indictment also does not “remedy critical errors identified in the prior indictment.”
Sun and Hu remain free on bond and are scheduled to return to court on April 23.
Last year, Sun was charged with violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), visa fraud, alien smuggling, and money laundering conspiracy. Hu was charged with money laundering conspiracy, conspiracy to commit bank fraud, and misuse of means of identification.
Sun, a naturalized U.S. citizen born in China, worked for the New York state government under Hochul and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo for about 15 years. During her political career, she held various posts, including deputy superintendent for intergovernmental affairs, chief diversity officer at the state’s Department of Financial Services, deputy chief diversity officer and director of Asian American Affairs for the state’s Executive Chamber, and director of external affairs for Global NY at Empire State Development.
Prosecutors alleged that Sun engaged in “numerous political activities in the interests of the PRC and the CCP,” such as preventing representatives of Taiwan’s government from having access to high-level state officials and changing the governors’ messaging to remove references to Taiwan and human rights abuses in China’s far-western region of Xinjiang.
In return, Hu received assistance for his various business activities in China, according to prosecutors.
Additionally, prosecutors said the financial arrangement with CCP officials helped Sun and Hu buy a $3.6 million home on Long Island, a $1.9 million condominium in Hawaii, and luxury automobiles, including a 2024 Ferrari.
In November 2024, Sun’s lawyers filed a motion to dismiss the charges, arguing that their client had been unfairly targeted.
“In the government’s view, Ms. Sun and her family simply have too much and so there must be a nefarious reason,” the filing reads.
“Sputtering about state ethics rules and undisclosed gifts, the government eventually reached the conclusion that when a woman of Chinese heritage allegedly receives unreported gifts from other Chinese individuals, she must be bought and paid for by China.”
Prosecutors, in their written response in December 2024, called the motion to dismiss the charges premature, saying that the initial indictment provides “ample factual details” to support their claims.
Prosecutors dismissed Sun’s argument that the FARA charge should be dismissed.
“Sun argues that unless the Indictment cites verbatim taskings from the PRC government or the CCP, pretrial dismissal of the FARA charges is appropriate. Sun is mistaken,” the filing reads.
“A rational juror could find beyond a reasonable doubt that Sun acted to advance the interests of the PRC government and CCP and that her acts were taken at the behest of one or more foreign principals. Thus, the factual allegations of the Indictment are sufficient to support the government’s charge that Sun acted on behalf of the PRC government or the CCP.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
BARRACK OBAMA’S DAUGHTER MALIA: WHY DID SHE RECEIVE 2.2 MILLION DOLLARS FROM USAAID
The last time Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF) was on USAWatchdog.com, she warned that the real battle would be fought in the Trump Administration trenches between “Freedom & Deep State Control.” CAF contends that there is no bigger ongoing battel for lovers of freedom than the battle taking place over the freedom killing idea of digital ID. CAF warns, “The greatest immediate danger is digital ID. The Trump Administration is pushing digital ID. We are seeing new testimony in Congress saying the right kind of digital ID will save the federal government $1 trillion a year in expenses. There is one thing after another pushing the digital ID, and it is the last thing we ever want. Do everything you can not to get this. They tried to get the digital ID after 9/11, and they finally got the states to do ‘Real ID,’ and they are promoting it like crazy. . . . Do not accept Real ID. . . . They can’t make you get a Real ID.”
It looks like the CV19 bioweapon vax mandate is coming to an end along with the CV19 vax injections that caused so many deaths and injuries. Trump and his new HHS Secretary RFK Jr. are starting the process of stopping this madness. Fitts thinks the CV19 vax has both negative physical and spiritual implications. CAF says, “Does it mean our soul cannot pass over? Do we become earthbound dead?”
Another big battle front is Bitcoin and the government wanting to own Bitcoin as some sort of reserve. CAF says don’t fall for this scam. CAF explains, “Bitcoin started out as an ingenious payment system, and then Bitcoin got hijacked. . . . It is an asset that can be used to pump and dump. . . . for the price to keep rising, you need keep bringing in new investors. It’s really a Ponzi Scheme. What would the big investors like to do? They would like to get out of Bitcoin and into real assets like gold and real estate. . . . By mandating huge purchases of Bitcoin by federal and state government, they are going to run the price up. We saw Larry Fink at Davos (World Economic Forum) suggesting in an interview that Bitcoin could run up as high as $700,000. Fink has a Bitcoin ETF. . .”
CAF also talks about gold and says, “It has never looked better as an investment opportunity.”
CAF talks about having physical gold and silver as core assets. CAF also explains the so-called “Trump Pivot” and what “We the People” need to do to protect ourselves for what is coming.
In closing, CAF says, “If we can face it, God can fix it all.”
Fri, Feb 14, 5:21 PM (9 hours ago)
harveyorganblog.com 
