GOLD CLOSED UP $19.05 TO $2909.80
SILVER CLOSED UP 9 CENTS TO $31.77
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED 2914.50
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.90
Bitcoin morning price:$83,945 DOWN 2100 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $87,566 UP 1521. DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $10.55 TO $965.25
Palladium price; UP $5.70 TO $950.85
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4197.25 UP 6.72 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 4208.15CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//FEB 24 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2277.42 UP 1.23 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,339.25 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) FEB 10/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2,744.27 DOWN 12.51 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2,819,78UROS PER OZ/FEB 24 //2025)
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
EXCHANGE
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,890.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/03/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 03/05/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 127
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 333
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 324
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 83
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 56
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 270
661 C JP MORGAN 21
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 20 33
690 C ABN AMRO 16
709 C BARCLAYS 71
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 4
TOTAL: 681 681
JPMORGAN STOPS 11/686 CONTRACTS
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MARCH/2024. CONTRACT: 681 NOTICES FOR 68100 OZ 2.118 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,067 contracts for 1,106,700 Oz (34.388 tonnes)
FOR MARCH
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 659 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3.295 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 11,774 for 58.870 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $19.05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.93 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 9 CENTS AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.82 MILLION OZ
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 436.673 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 342 CONTRACTS TO 145,957 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0,78 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 138 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON MONDAY COMEX TRADING / AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY COUPLED WITH ANOTHER NEW HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 949 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.00 DOLLAR MARK. WE HAVE A HUGE CONTANGO IN SILVER SPOT VS FRONT FEB OF AROUND 95 CENTS AND A LEASE RATE OF 6%. WE HAD A GOOD 480 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG 949 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY.S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 138 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING SESSION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE SMALLISH GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A HUGE 949 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.78 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 303 CONTRACTS WE HAD A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE AND THAT ACCOUNTS OF MOST OF OUR OPEN INTEREST FALL.
WE HAD A 480 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 78.753 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 1.02 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH REDUCES TO 74.666 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ FAIR COMEX OI LOSS+// A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 949 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 165 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAYS, total 830ontracts: OR 4.150 MILLION OZ (415 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.150 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 4.15 MILLION OZ///
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 342 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF 78 CENTS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 480 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 480 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH OF 78.455 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MASSIVE 1.04 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 74.555 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE 1). A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 138 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE// 2.THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 949 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//MONSTER FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. HOWEVER THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCES FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING //3. ZERO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON MONDAY WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. ALSO 4. SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR CONTRACTS AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (949 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND MOST LIKELY TODAY.
WE HAD 659 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3.295 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 787 OI CONTRACTS TO 488,842 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A STRONG SIZED 646 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (787 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $50.85 IN PRICE MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 31.757 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 50,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP (1.5675 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.042 TONNES
/NEW STANDING FOR MARCH; 35.042 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $50.85 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2548 OI CONTRACTS (7.925 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE FRONT MARCH CONTRACT MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3335 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 489,488
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2548 CONTRACTS WITH 787 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3194 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2548 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1658 CONTRACTS ISSUED.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3335 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 787 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3194 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH 31.757 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 1.5645 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.042 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR MARCH ADVANCES TO:
35.042 TONNES
//NEW STANDING MARCH: 35.042 TONNES
.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE MONDAY WITH NO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WITH OUR1) $50.85 PRICE GAIN WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2548 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ) ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD IN MARCH
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1658 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 5999 CONTRACTS OF 599,900 OZ OR 18.659 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3000 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 18.659 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 18.659 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.525% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 18.659 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 342 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,957 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 480 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 480 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 480 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 342 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 480 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 138 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.6900 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.78 GAIN IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.29 PTS OR 0.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 64.50 PTS OR 0.28%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 454.29OR 1,20%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .68%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2572 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2613/ Oil UP TO 67/12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 70.37 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING
STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
END
END
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 787 CONTRACTS TO 488,842 DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $50.85 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING/. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. BUT AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3335 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY NIGHT, ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES.
IN FEBRUARY: WE HAD FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY.
THUS IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2548 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED RAID AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO 10% AS GOLD IN LONDON IS NOW EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY TODAY INCLUDING WITH OUR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCES AND HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION// MONDAY // THEY ISSUED A FAIR 1658 CONTRACT ANNOUNCEMENT (MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING). THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IS WHY WE ARE HAVING A NEGATIVE COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 16+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS WAS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST FRIDAY’S 197 , 199, 2001, , 203 , ,205 , 207 209 AND TODAY’S 211 AND 212 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS TRUMP CAME INTO OFFICE MONDAY NOON JAN 20. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST FEW WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH .… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3335 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /APRIL 3335 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3335 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2548 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3335 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 787 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $50.85 FOR MONDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 1658 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S OVER 4 WEEKS AGO, THE FED WAS EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE AS FEW LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. A HUGE RAID WAS ORDERED BY THE FED WITH END OF THE MONTH TRADING ( FEB 25 THROUGH FEB 28) AS THE GOLD PRICE GOT HAMMERED A BIT WITH COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY AND OTC LONDON OPTIONS EXPIRY.
THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY DOES TWO IMPORTANT THINGS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER 2024
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON FEB 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR//MONTH END SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE JANUARY OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING AND AGAIN WITH FEBRUARY OPTION EXPIRY MONTH. HALF WAY THROUGH THE JANUARY COMEX MONTH, THE CROOKS ISSUED FIVE CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF T.A.S KNOWING THAT THEY WERE GOING TO INITIATE HUGE RAIDS ON OUR METALS.
STANDING FOR GOLD FOR THE PAST 4 PLUS YEARS:
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MARCH (33.872 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE MARCH DELIVERY MONTH / FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH.
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025: 113.30 TONNES
FEB: 2025: 256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
AND NOW MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 35.042 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 50 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527
= 256.607 TONNES.
MARCH: 35.042 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MARCH CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $50.85/)/AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY AS THEY WERE TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S RISE AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM ALSO RISING. LAST TUESDAY ENDED COMEX OPTIONXS EXPIRY. HOWEVER AS I EXPLAINED ON WEDNESDAY, WE HAVE THE MUCH BIGGER OTC.LONDON.OTC EXPIRY.THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN SLOWING THEIR DERIVATIVE LOSSES IN PRECIOUS METAL BETS WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR BOTH COMEX AND LONDON OTC!!
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD)
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/DECEMBER AND JANUARYTRADING
DECEMBER MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK!
88 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (DEC 13) WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. THIS BRINGS US TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEC 21 WHERE TO MY SHOCK AGAIN WE HAD OUR 6TH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AN ASTOUNDING 4.043 TONNES. THIS BRINGS THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF DEC TO 6 FOR 14.6836 TONNES A NEW RECORD. THE COMEX IS TOTALLY SHATTERED TO PIECES.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK // JANUARY MONTH!!
LO AND BEHOLD, THE CROOKS ISSUED THEIR FIRST ISSUANCE A MONSTER 1700 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 170,000 OZ OR 5.28775 TONNES ON MONDAY JAN 6/2025. THEN TO MY HORROR, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON JAN 8, TOTALLING 150 CONTRACTS FOR 15000 OZ OR .4665 TONNES. THIS TONNAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRST ISSUANCE. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR OUR TWO EARLY JANUARY EX FOR RISK: 5.7533 TONNES. THEN MERCILESSLY THEY CONSUMMATED FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS MONTH 85 EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST THURSDAY NIGHT (JAN 17) FOR 8500 OZ OR .2649 TONNES OF GOLD. THEN TO MY HORROR THEY ISSUED THEIR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS MONTH (JAN 22) FOR A MONSTER 5000 CONTRACTS OR 5,000,000 OZ.(15.562 TONNES).NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS ISSUED THEIR FIFTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST NIGHT FOR 500 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 50,,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. REMEMBER THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON WHICH IS TOTALLY ASININE!! THUS FOR THE 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED THIS MONTH TOTALS 23.134 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS BRINGS US TO , JAN 25 WHERE THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS SIXTH MAJOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6454 CONTRACTS FOR 645,400 OZ OR 20.074 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED ISSUANCE IN NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AT 6, AND FOR NEW TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY: 43.208 TONNES!!! AND A NEW RECORD FOR ISSUANCE.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY:
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN A FEW NIGHTS AGO, THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WILL BE ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WILL NOW BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FOR FRIDAY FEB 28 ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED.
TOTAL INITIAL DELIVERIES MARCH GOLD TRADING
MARCH: 33.872 TONNES
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 7.925 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MARCH (31.753TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 50,300 OZ OR 1.5645 TONNES: NEW TOTAL STANDING 35/042 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $50.85
WE HAD 646 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2548 CONTRACTS OR 254,800 0Z (7.925 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 227,387ontracts: fair///
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
MARCH
// THE MARCH 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
MARCH 3
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entry i) Out of Brinks enhanced: 129,400.950 oz 323 London good delivery bars at 400 oz each. . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Asahi dealer 93,849.769 oz (2919 kilobars ii) Brinks dealer: 27,701.560 oz total dealer weight: 121,550.329 oz(3.78 tonnes) |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) HSBC 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars) ii) Into Manfra: 16009.57 oz total customer weight: 48160.570 oz or 1.498 tonnes total weight dealer and customer: 5.278 tonnes |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 681 notice(s) 68100 OZ 2.118 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 210 contracts 21000 OZ 0.653 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 11,056notices 1,105,600 oz 34.388 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 1
2 ENTRIES
i) Asahi dealer 93,849.769 oz (2919 kilobars
ii) Brinks dealer: 27,701.560 oz
total dealer weight: 121,550.329 oz(3.78 tonnes)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
we have 2 customer deposits:
2 ENTRIES
i) HSBC 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)
ii) Into Manfra: 16009.57 oz
total customer weight: 48160.570 oz or 1.498 tonnes
total weight dealer and customer: 5.278 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: 1
1 entry
i) Out of Brinks enhanced: 129,400.950 oz
323 London good delivery bars at 400 oz each.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
adjustments:1/comex is in chaos
a)customer to dealer
a) Loomis: 32,118.849 oz
thus basically what comes into eligible is transferred to dealer accounts and then out.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH
THE FRONT MONTH OF MARCH HAD A LOSS OF 262 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 897. WE HAD 644 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 503 CONTRACTS FOR 50,300 OZ (1.5645 TONNES AS A PHYSICAL GOLD QUEUE JUMP. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKS LOOKING FOR BADLY NEEDED GOLD.
APRIL HAD A LOSS OF 7646 CONTRACTS DOWNTO 345,696 CONTRACTS AS THIS MONTH BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH.
MAY GAINED 27 CONTRACTS UP TO 369.
We had 681 contracts filed for today representing 68,100oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 681 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 21 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MARCH /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,056 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH.(891 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (681 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,126,600 OZ OR 35.042 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month: No of notices filed so far (11056x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MARCH ( 891 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (681 x 100 oz) which equals 1,126,600 OR 35.042 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.: 35.042 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND MARCH IS FOLLOWING SUIT..
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,085,544.431 oz 64.86 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 39,454,463.716 .oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,279,754.414 or 599.68 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 20,174,709.302 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 17,194,210oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 534.812 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 28
INITIAL
// THE MARCH 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2731.900 oz Loomis |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 2 entries i) Into ASAHI: 606,300.120 oz ii) Into Loomis; 966,980.200 oz total deposit dealer acct 1,573,280.320 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 4 entries i)Into Brinks 1244,710.400 oz ii) Into CNT 304,908.390 oz iii) Into HSBC 653,204.400 oz iv) Into JPMorgan: 1,118,117.600 oz total weight: 3,390,040.790 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 659 CONTRACT(S) (3.295MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3137 contracts (15.6850 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 11,774 Contracts (58.870 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 2 dealer deposit/
2 entries
i) Into ASAHI: 606,300.120 oz
ii) Into Loomis; 966,980.200 oz
total deposit dealer acct 1,573,280.320 oz
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
deposits customer side
4 entries
i)Into Brinks 1244,710.400 oz
ii) Into CNT 304,908.390 oz
iii) Into HSBC 653,204.400 oz
iv) Into JPMorgan: 1,118,117.600 oz
total weight: 3,390,040.790 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals 1
2731.900 oz
Loomis
xxx
ADJUSTMENTs 2 customer to dealer:
i) CNT 469.925.640 oz
ii) Manfra: 801,563.934 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 162.957million oz/408.808million or 39.74%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 139.198 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 413.769Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR FEBRUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2025 OI: 3796 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1204 CONTRACTS.WE HAD 996 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST A HUMONGOUS 208 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1.04 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT AN EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON LOOKING FOR METAL OVER THERE//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 74.555 MILLION OZ. FOR THE SECOND DAY IN ROW, THE CROOKS COULD NOT FIND ANY SILVER OVER HERE!
APRIL SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF 27 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1453
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 463 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 114,054 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 659 or 3.2950 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 59,789 small//
AND NOW ONTO MARCH:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 11,774 X5,000 oz = 58.830MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (3796 AND the number of notices served upon today (659 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH 2025 contract month: 11,856 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR(3796) minus number of notices served upon today (659)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MARCH contract month equating to 74.555 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: INITIAL 74.555 million oz which is huge for this very active delivery month of March.
There are 139.198million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
0 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS/
MARCH 4 WITH GOLD UP $19.05 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.93 TONNES
MARCH 3 WITH GOLD UP $50.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 904.38 TONNES
FEB 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $44.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 904.38 TONNES
FEB 26 WITH GOLD DOWN $40,85 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 907.83 TONNES
FEB 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $40,85 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 907.83 TONNES
FEB 24 WITH GOLD UP 7,65 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 20.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 904.38TONNES
FEB 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.77ONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.72TONNES
FEB 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $10.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 8.51TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,95TONNES
FEB 19/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 6.38TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.44TONNES
FEB 18/ WITH GOLD UP $43.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.06TONNES
FEB 13/ WITH GOLD UP 11.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.901 TONNES FROM THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.50TONNES
FEB 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $3,40ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 10 WITH GOLD UP $10.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 7 WITH GOLD UP $10.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
FEB 5 WITH GOLD UP $27.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.05 TONNES
FEB 4 WITH GOLD UP $25.00 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.77 TONNES
JAN 31 WITH GOLD UP $4.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
JAN 30 WITH GOLD UP $40.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.34 TONNES
JAN 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.04 TONNES
JAN 28 WITH GOLD UP $23.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //
JAN 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $36.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///
JAN 24 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.19 TONNES
JAN 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.36 TONNES
JAN 22 WITH GOLD UP $15.15 ON THE DAY; MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.66 TONNES
JAN 20 WITH GOLD UP $35.30 ON THE DAY; MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 10.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.12 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 900.93 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MARCH 4 WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.82 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 436.673 MILLION OZ
MARCH 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.78//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.819 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 438.493 MILLION OZ
FEB 28 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.56//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.819 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 438.493 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6,245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.4061MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6,245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.4061MILLION OZ
FEB 24WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 435.171MILLION OZ
FEB 21WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456MILLION OZ/. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 435,171MILLION OZ
FEB 20WITH SILVER UP $0.29//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.547 MILLION OZ/. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 435,171MILLION OZ
FEB 19WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.276 MILLION OZ/. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 436.717MILLION OZ
FEB 18WITH SILVER UP $.56//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : NO CHANGES AT THE SLX/. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 438.994MILLION OZ
FEB 14WITH SILVER UP $.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.593 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 437.401 MILLION OZ
FEB 12WITH SILVER UP $.01 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 8 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 437.401 MILLION OZ
FEB 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 428.66 MILLION OZ
FEB 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 428.66 MILLION OZ
FEB 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.17 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 12.383 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 430.39 MILLION OZ
FEB 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.45 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.285 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 442.773 MILLION OZ
FEB 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.81 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.550 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.331 MILLION OZ
FEB 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.81 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.550 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.331 MILLION OZ
FEB 3 WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.550 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.331 MILLION OZ
JAN 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.369 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.881 MILLION OZ
jAN 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.76 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.003 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.249 MILLION OZ
jAN 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.252 MILLION OZ
jAN 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.34 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.821 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. /
jAN 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $.61 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.395 MILLION OZ
JAN 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $.21 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 457.395 MILLION OZ
JAN 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.738 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 459.035 MILLION OZ
JAN 22 WITH SILVER UP $.08 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 464.043 MILLION OZ
JAN 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $.09 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.568 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.315 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 436.493MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
Alasdair Macleod..
Bear squeeze resumes
Sharp rises in gold and silver in the last two trading sessions are evidence of the bear squeeze on the shorts being resumed.
| Alasdair MacleodMar 4∙Paid |
The sudden recovery in gold and silver is not on the back of bullish demand for paper contracts. How can we describe what’s going on?
Trading volumes on Comex are not spectacular despite price rises for gold and silver. Gold has risen over $80 since Friday afternoon, and Open Interest has fallen below 490,000 contracts. And silver’s OI similarly fell back by over 12,000 contracts on Friday. These declines are down to high levels of stand-for-deliveries in both metals.
This has rarely been mentioned in any commentary that I’ve seen. But the pace of these stand-for-deliveries is remarkable. As well as the realisation that for whatever reason gold and silver are clearly heading much higher, the fact that buyers are taking futures positions to access scarce bullion must be scarry for any bullion bank trading desk. No wonder there’s a scramble to close their shorts down.
So far, 333.3 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery since 1 January, and 2,689.7 tonnes of silver. The silver chart looks good as well.
Having again tested the 55-day MA (currently at 30.81) its base for an attack on the $35 level is in place.
And gold appears to have a runaway momentum, taking it to over $3k in a matter of days…
The next headache for the shorts is that the momentum traders have yet to join the party. It’s hard to imagine that they won’t, particularly as the dollar’s recent strength may have come to an end. Its TWI is next.
If the hedge funds, who are said to be already running short positions in equities, take the view that the credit bubble is imploding, then there will be a lemming-like rush into gold and silver as they sell dollars/buy PMs
Just saying…
3 CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Chris Powell…
4 ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 212//ANDREW MAGUIRE INTERVIEWING DR DANIEL LACALLE
Kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault/trump-expose-feds-gold-coverup/
Episode 212
Posted 28th February 2025
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: COMMODITY//EGGS
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.29 PTS OR 0.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 64.50 PTS OR 0.28%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 454.29OR 1,20%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .68%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2572 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2613/ Oil UP TO 67/12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 70.37 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING
STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
END
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2572
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2613
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 7.29 PTS OR 0.22%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 64.50 PTS OR 0.28%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 454.29OR 1.20%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.88// EURO RISES TO 1.0552 UP 67 BASIS PT HEADING TO PARITY WITH USA
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.406//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.27…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4690/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.534 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.139
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.291
3j Gold at $2926.00 Silver at: 31.87 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 72 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.98
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.27 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.406 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8874 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9364well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.144 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.460 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.906 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 36.46…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5605 UP 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.852 UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.540 UP 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Tumble As Trump Tariffs Kick In
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 08:08 AM
Futures are lower, tracking European and Asian markets, with the dollar plunging on mounting recession fears, as the Trump trade war officially started at midnight, although according to JPMorgan it could be even worse and the “downward reaction is muted given the significant, expected impact on the economy and earnings expectations.” At the same time, Canada, China, and Mexico are rolling out their retaliatory measures. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5%, and near session lows, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.6%, with Mag7 names sliding premarket and NVDA tumbling another 2.4% after plunging 8.7% on Monday. Investors will also be waiting to see what Trump says in his State of the Union speech tonight (some see it as a final hope for an off-ramp). Bond yields are mixed as the curve twists steeper and USD plunges amid rising fears the tariffs will accelerate a recession. Commodities are weaker with precious outperforming while energy stocks underperform as oil prices fall further after OPEC+ announced plans to revive halted production. WTI declines 0.8% to $67.80 a barrel, the lowest since December. There are no major macro data releases today and the Fed’s Williams speaks ~2.20pm EST; Trump’s State of the Union address is at 9:00pm ET.
In premarket trading, Tesla is leading premarket losses among the Magnificent Seven stocks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, shares in Nvidia whipsaw a day after a selloff in the chipmaker wiped out almost $265 billion in market value, and extend their losses down another 2%. Walgreens Boots Alliance shares rise 6.1% after Bloomberg reported that Sycamore Partners is nearing an acquisition of the drugstore operator. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Okta (OKTA US) shares jump 16% after the infrastructure software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
- On Holding (ONON US) shares climb 11% after the Swiss sneaker maker reported fourth-quarter sales and gross margin that topped Wall Street expectations.
- Illumina (ILMN US) shares slip 3.5% after China banned the firm from selling genetic sequencing products in the country as part of a wave of retaliatory measures against fresh US tariffs on all Chinese goods.
- Viant Technology (DSP US) shares slide 10% after the digital advertising company reported fourth-quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share that missed estimates.
At midnight, a raft of new tariffs and countertariffs kicked in (full break down in the subsequent post), which mark Trump’s biggest push to remake global trade, and investors will be watching his address to Congress Tuesday for hints on future steps. Canada announced a sweeping package of tariffs in response and China retaliated by imposing tariffs as high as 15% on some US exports.
There’s more: Trump also said Monday that the US would impose tariffs on “external” agricultural products starting on April 2, adding another layer of threats to impose trade barriers on imported goods. He didn’t detail which products would be affected, or if there would be any exceptions. Trump also ordered a pause to all military aid to Ukraine, turning up the heat on Volodymyr Zelenskiy just days after an Oval Office blowup with the Ukrainian president left the support of his country’s most important ally in doubt.
“We need to know exactly what the US plan is towards European tariffs,” said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International. “It’s likely to be different from Canadian and Mexican tariffs, because the interrelationships are different. It’s a big unknown for European equity outperformance to continue.”
Stocks in Europe retreated on concern the region could be next to face US tariffs after President Donald Trump imposed levies on Mexico, Canada and China. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index slumped 1.2%, weighed down by automakers and energy stocks, after closing at a record in the previous session. European defense stocks bucked the broader slump amid expectations of increased military spending in the region. A basket of European defense stocks hit a record high as Thales SA jumped 8% after its results beat expectations, while Hensoldt AG rallied as much as 18%. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Lindt & Spruengli shares gain as much as 6.3% after the chocolate maker posted strong results and “impressive” free cash flow.
- A European defense index hits a record high, supported by Thales’s post-results jump. Hensoldt also rallied on news the company will join the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
- Eutelsat shares more than triple in two days, their biggest back-to-back gains ever, on optimism that European leaders’ pledge to boost military spending will aid the satellite operator.
- Inchcape shares jump as much as 9.7% after the automotive retailer and distributor announced a bigger share buyback and outlined new mid-term goals that are being welcomed by markets.
- European stocks exposed to the escalating global trade war slump, including automakers, Spanish banks, metals makers, beverage stocks and freight shippers. Continental shares fall as much as 9.3% after full-year results in which analysts point out a revenue miss. Bernstein cites a challenging 2025 outlook, which includes no tariff impact.
- European energy companies’ shares drop as oil slides on OPEC+’s plans to increase production, as well as concerns around the Trump administration’s trade tariffs.
- Forbo shares drop as much as 12% after the Swiss linoleum maker’s FY24 results fell short of expectations, according to Baader, which added the FY25E outlook suggests another challenging year.
- Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 8.4%, the most since July, after a share offering by Fresenius SE was priced at a discount.
- Ashtead shares drop as much as 4.5% after the equipment rental giant posted a slowdown in US rental growth in the third quarter, according to Jefferies.
- Greggs shares fall as much as 14% as weaker like-for-like sales growth at the start of this year offset a slight beat on 2024 pretax profit.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a second day. Haven assets outperform with the Swiss franc at the top of the G-10 FX leaderboard, rising 0.6% against the greenback. The yen is not far behind with a 0.5% gain. The euro rose as much as 0.3% to its highest level since Feb. 26 as the European Union proposed extending €150 billion ($158 billion) in loans to boost defense spending. Elsewhere, the Mexican peso weakened 0.9% against the greenback, while the Canadian dollar was slightly stronger after retreating for seven straight sessions.
In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper as US trading day begins, off session lows reached during Asia session as US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China drew reprisals. US front-end yields are richer by nearly 5bp near session lows with long-end yields slightly higher on the day, steepening 2s10 and 5s30s curves by ~4bp; 10-year around 4.14% is lower by 1bp, trailing yield declines of 2bp and 5bp for German and UK counterparts. Traders fully priced in three 25bp Fed rate cuts this year. US 5s30s spread touched widest level since Oct. 4, paced by German 5s30s reaching steepest level in more than two years amid steep declines for European stocks. Gilts lead a rally in European government bonds, with UK 10-year yields falling 5 bps to 4.51%.
In commodities, spot gold climbs $30 to around $2,920/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% to below $84,000.
Today’s economic data calendar is blank, while Fed speaker slate includes New York Fed’s Williams at 2:20pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,868.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 558.13
- MXAP down 0.2% to 184.38
- MXAPJ down 0.3% to 575.62
- Nikkei down 1.2% to 37,331.18
- Topix down 0.7% to 2,710.18
- Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 22,941.77
- Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,324.21
- Sensex down 0.1% to 73,008.36
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 8,198.06
- Kospi down 0.2% to 2,528.92
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
- Euro up 0.3% to $1.0520
- Brent Futures down 1.4% to $70.59/bbl
- Gold spot up 1.0% to $2,920.89
- US Dollar Index down 0.49% to 106.23
Top Overnight News
- Trump ordered a pause on all military aid to Ukraine until he determines there’s a good-faith commitment to peace, a defense official said. The US will engage with Volodymyr Zelenskiy if he calls with a “serious proposal” to end the war, JD Vance told Fox. BBG
- Global government borrowing is expected to hit a record $12.3T this year, with the aggregate debt stock climbing to nearly $77T. FT
- The United States is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Donald Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine. RTRS
- Fed’s Musalem (2025 voter) said the outlook is for continued solid economic growth, but recent consumer and housing data pose some downside risk. Musalem added that restrictive monetary policy is still needed to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target, while a patient approach to policy will help achieve the Fed’s goals and sustain economic expansion.
- US Education Secretary McMahon said that President Trump has assigned them the ‘final mission’ to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies within the Department of Education.
- China retaliates against Trump’s tariffs, imposing 15% duties on imports of US poultry, wheat, corn, and cotton, and 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables, and dairy, while 15 US firms were added to Beijing’s export control list and another 10 were put on the “unreliable entity list” (Illumina has been barred from exporting tools to China). SCMP
- Canada’s retaliatory tariff plan includes 25% levies on about C$30 billion ($20.8 billion) worth of goods from the US, with a second round on C$125 billion of products in three weeks. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to spell out her plan today.
- China plans to issue guidance encouraging domestic firms to use chips based on the RISC-V open-source standard instead of proprietary Western standards sold by the likes of ARM, AMD, and INTC. RTRS
- The RBA said last month’s rate reduction doesn’t commit the board to further easing, according to minutes of the meeting. CBA chief Matt Comyn said he expects a slower and shallower rate-cut cycle. BBG
- Leaders of Arab countries are set to meet in Cairo today to endorse a Gaza reconstruction plan to counter Trump’s proposals. BBG
Tariffs
- White House said President Trump proceeded with tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while reports also noted that the extra 10% duty on Chinese goods took effect as the Tuesday deadline passed with no changes to tariff orders.
- US President Trump said on Monday that reciprocal tariffs start on April 2nd and tariffs on Canada and Mexico are to start on Tuesday, while also commented there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while he reiterated the plan to double the China tariff to 20% from 10%. Furthermore, Trump said will penalise countries weakening currencies with tariffs and mentioned China when talking about weak currencies and doesn’t think China will retaliate too much, while the White House said President Trump signed an order to tariff China at 20%.
- US President Trump posted on Truth “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”
- Canada said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from Tuesday if US tariffs go into effect and will start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days. Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.
- China announced additional tariffs on US goods as retaliation for March 4th tariffs in which it is to impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on some US goods from March 10th, while it announced to impose tariffs of 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as tariffs of 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. China also added 15 US entities to the export control list and added 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list and banned Illumina Inc from exporting gene sequencing machines to China from March 4.
- China’s MOFCOM earlier stated that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs, while it urged the US to immediately withdraw its unilateral tariff measures, calling them unreasonable, groundless, harmful to others, and self-serving. Furthermore, it hopes the US will return to the right track of resolving differences through dialogue on an equal footing as soon as possible.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P suffered its worst day of the year so far amid tech selling, weak ISM data and tariff confirmation. ASX 200 declined with nearly all sectors in the red and underperformance in energy after the recent drop in oil prices, while mixed data releases provided little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 briefly retreated to beneath the 37,000 level amid the early broad risk-off mood and recent currency strength with Seven & I Holdings the worst hit after reports it is to reject Couche-Tard’s buyout proposal. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after US President Trump signed an order to raise tariffs on China to 20% from 10% and threatened to penalise countries weakening currencies with China also mentioned when talking about weak currencies, while China’s MOFCOM later responded that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs. Nonetheless, the downside in the mainland was limited as China’s annual “Two sessions” gathering began in Beijing with participants anticipating China to outline stimulus plans, while confirmation of the tariffs and China’s immediate retaliation did little to derail the resilience in the mainland.
Top Asian News
- China’s NPC spokesperson announced that the 2025 annual parliamentary session will begin March 5th and conclude on March 11th, while there be three press conferences held on diplomacy, economy and livelihood. NPC spokesperson also said the Chinese government attaches high importance to the development of AI and its risk prevention and that China opposes overstretching the concept of national security or politicising economic and technological issues. The spokesperson said that the country’s economic operations face numerous difficulties and challenges, citing insufficient domestic demand, as well as production and operational struggles for some businesses, as well as noted that rising economic and political uncertainties internationally make it hard to stabilise external demand but also stated China’s economy has a solid foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and large potential.
- RBA Minutes stated the Board judged the case to cut rates was, on balance, the stronger one although it agreed decision did not commit them to further cuts in the cash rate and members expressed caution about the prospect of further easing. Furthermore, members placed more weight on the downside risks to the economy and were particularly mindful of the risk of keeping policy too tight for too long, while it was stated that if inflation proved persistent, rates might stay at 4.1% for an extended period or be raised.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) opened in the red and have continued to trundle lower, as markets digest the latest tinderbox of uncertainty, which include; Trump tariff updates, the US stock market rout and increased EU defence spending. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with most of the cyclical industries populating the bottom of the pile, given the risk tone. Food Beverage and Tobacco is buoyed by post-earning upside in Lindt (+5.3%). Energy and Autos are by far the clear underperformers in today’s session. The former hit by the sink in oil prices (OPEC+ confirmed oil hike) and Autos hampered on Trump tariff fears.
Top European News
- Morgan Stanley (MS) has changed its ECB rate call, now sees the central bank cutting rates in April.
- French Finance Minister Lombard says “we” must spend more on defence and faster, to spend more we will have to make efforts elsewhere. Do not want to increase tax on companies, want to look at how the wealthiest legally tax optimise
- EU Commission President von der Leyen says Europe is ready to “massively” boost defence spending; will propose to activate the national escape clause of the stability and growth pact & propose a new instrument that will provide EUR 150bln of loans. Propose that member states will be able to decide if they want to use the cohesion policy programmes to increase this spending. Rearm Europe that could mobilise close to EUR 800bln for a safe and resilient Europe. Aim to mobilise private capital through EIB, savings and investment union
- UK Chancellor Reeves says she will announce an intention to reduce unnecessary red tape which slows down the procuring of defence equipment.
FX
- DXY is once again on the backfoot as the support from Trump’s tariff announcements yesterday proved to be shortlived. Selling in early European trade picked up alongside an appreciation of the EUR as EU’s von der Leyen provided an update on the bloc’s defence spending intentions. Today’s docket is light in terms of data, however, Trump will be delivering his State of the Union address 21:00EST. DXY now down as low as 106.15 with the YTD trough in touching distance at 106.12
- EUR/USD is up for a second session in a row as prospects of increased European defence spending overshadow concerns over the global trade war in which Europe is a clear target of the Trump administration. European yields experienced another boost in early European trade after EU Commission President von der Leyen proposed a new instrument that will provide EUR 150bln of loans for defence spending.
- JPY has benefitted from the risk-aversion seen in the wake of Trump’s decision to proceed with tariff hikes on Mexico, Canada and China as well as reaffirming that reciprocal tariffs will start on April 2nd. JPY has also been underpinned by dynamics in the domestic bond market with the 30yr yield hitting its highest level since October 2008. 148.61 is the low print for USD/JPY today with the YTD trough just below at 148.56.
- Cable is once again on the front foot after a solid showing yesterday which brought the pair from a 1.2577 low to a YTD peak at 1.2726. Fresh macro drivers for the UK are on the light side asides from a 0.7% contraction in the BRC shop price index overnight. As such, it may be the case that the USD leg of the equation provides the greater source of traction in the near-term. If yesterday’s 1.2726 YTD peak is breached, the 200DMA kicks in at 1.2785.
- Antipodeans are both were knocked lower by Trump’s decision to proceed with tariffs on Canada and Mexico as well as doubling tariffs on China to 20%. China’s decision to retaliate to the US also added to the trade angst. Overnight data releases for Australia (retail sales and current account) were mixed and provided little traction for AUD.
Fixed Income
- Despite a lack of scheduled events USTs were in the driving seat early doors with a huge block trade sparking a bout of selling pressure in the benchmark and reverberating through the broader complex as well. Specifically, a 78k 10yr block at 111-19 hit at 07:33GMT when USTs themselves were trading at 111-23. Thereafter, the benchmark recovered a touch and got back towards earlier levels before then moving lower with EGBs.
- Given the ongoing bullish bias, with USTs firmer in a 111-13 to 111-28+ band, yields are lower across most of the curve aside from at the 20yr point which is essentially flat. Focus ahead is on the fallout of President Trump’s allowing the tariff pause to end, and also on his State of the Union address this evening.
- Bunds are bid, benefitting from the tepid European tone as the region reacts to the imposition of tariffs by the US on Canada, China and Mexico. Note, nothing specific for Europe was announced by the US. Action which helped Bunds hit a 132.85 peak in the early morning with yields lower across the curve and the German 10yr moving back below the 2.5% mark after surmounting it on Monday; currently down to a 2.42% base and holding just within Monday’s 2.41-2.51% band.
- The morning’s main mover has been remarks from EU Commission President von der Leyen, who said that Europe is ready to “massively” boost defence spending, a plan labelled ReArm Europe which could mobilise as much as EUR 800bln for defence. This weighed on Bunds, trimming nearly 30 ticks over the course of around five minutes. Little reaction was seen despite a relatively weak 2030 Bobl outing.
- Gilts are firmer in-fitting with the above points and as the risk tone in the UK market is also weighed on by the latest measures from Trump. Action which has taken Gilts past yesterday’s 93.39 best by 11 ticks thus far. No sustained reaction to the morning’s DMO tap with Gilts continued to trade in proximity to Monday’s high.
- UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt Auction: b/c 2.85x (prev. 2.75x), average yield 5.104% (prev. 5.198%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps)
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are on the backfoot but around USD 0.62/bbl and USD 0.88/bbl respectively, continuing the pressure seen in the pressure which was sparked by OPEC+ confirming that they will go ahead with the planned output hike in April. Furthermore, sentiment in Europe has been hit as markets digest the imposition of tariffs on China, Mexico and China.
- Precious metals are bid, benefiting from its haven status, given the risk-off sentiment seen today; XAU breached overnight highs in early European trade and currently sits at the upper end of a USD 2,882.14-2,921.27/oz range.
- Base metals are generally pressured, as the latest Trump tariffs hit sentiment, with China’s levy doubled to 20%. 3M LME Copper currently lower by around 0.4% at USD 9,377.
- Kazakhstan Energy Ministry says they plan to increase oil exports via the Caspian CPC pipeline by 12% in March vs Feb to 6.7mln T.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israeli ground forces launched a major incursion into south Syria with a helicopter airdrop and armoured convoys headed to Tel al-Mal & al-Mashara in Quneitra & Daraa, according to a source on X.
- Israeli Foreign Minister Sarr declines to comment on reports of a deadline for resuming the war in Gaza, says “if we went to, we will do it”. We are ready to continue to Phase Two of the ceasefire, but need an agreement to release hostages to extend framework.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russia’s Kremlin says it is “obvious that the US was the main supplier of the war” and if the US stops, it will be the best contribution to the cause of peace. Seems as if European countries will try to compensate Ukraine for the apparent loss of US military aid. Need to see how the situation develops on the ground. Too early to comments on reports of “White house seeks plans for Russian sanctions relief”. To normalise relations, the sanctions need to be lifted.
- Finland’s Intelligence Service says the biggest concern in the Baltic Sea is the Russian shadow flee. Russian sabotage actions are taking increasingly dangerous forms.
- Ukraine’s parliament said the country’s security is ensured by US support and described President Trump’s peacekeeping efforts as ‘decisive’ in ending the war.
- US President Trump said he will give an update on the Ukraine minerals deal on Tuesday night and doesn’t think the Ukraine minerals deal is dead, while he added that Ukrainian President Zelensky should be more appreciative.
- White House official confirmed the US is pausing and reviewing Ukraine aid to assess if it is contributing towards a solution. It was also previously reported that the US is hitting the brakes on the flow of arms to Ukraine in which the Trump administration stopped financing new weapons sales to Ukraine and was considering freezing weapons shipments from US stockpiles, according to WSJ.
- US Vice President Vance said it is important for Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian Putin to come to the negotiating table but added that Zelensky is still not willing to engage and President Trump is taking a realistic perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war. Vance said a minerals deal with Ukraine shows the US has a long-term investment in the country and leaders in Ukraine and Europe acknowledge privately that the Russia-Ukraine war cannot go on forever. Furthermore, Vance said Europeans need to be realistic on the Russia-Ukraine war and need to be saying to Zelensky that the war cannot go on forever.
- European official said the suspension of military aid to Ukraine will cause unnecessary civilian casualties and Ukraine will not be able to counter Russian raids after running out of air defence missiles, according to CNN.
- Europe’s biggest powers are swinging behind efforts to seize over EUR 200bln of frozen Russian assets, as they draw up plans for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine, according to FT.
- Russia’s Kremlin said it is premature to determine the location for the next round of Russia-US talks and that Russia-US talks on Ukraine are unlikely to resume until both countries’ embassies return to full operational capacity. It was also reported that Russia’s envoy to international organisations said Russia is categorically against the deployment of European troops to Ukraine.
- China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment says it is collecting public opinion towards the regulation of the import of black mass for lithium-ion batteries and recycled steel materials.
US Event Calendar
- 14:20: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Bloomberg Invest Forum
- 9:10 p.m.: President Donald Trump delivers joint address to Congress
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As I’ve said a few times over the last 2-3 weeks it feels like decades are happening over days. Ever since the Munich Security Conference in mid February a light switch flicked in European capitals and this has been turbo charged by events since the German election. A big prize to the person who entered 2025 short Nvidia (-15.1% YTD) and long German defence firm Rheinmetall (+86% YTD). You would have returned just over 100% so far in only two months. Even with tech slumping and defence surging, in the background the US administration is continuing to cause even more global upheaval and overnight by far the broadest set of tariffs yet has come into effect.
The 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada that had been delayed a month ago took effect in the last couple of hours, with a lower 10% rate on Canadian energy. US imports from the two countries totalled over $900bn in 2024. And additional tariffs on China have been doubled to 20%, with Trump yesterday signing an executive order confirming the move he had signaled last week. There is still some market doubt as to whether all these tariffs will persist for a prolonged period of time. For instance, the Canadian dollar is trading at around 1.45 to the US dollar, well below the nearly 1.48 peak we saw when Trump first announced the 25% tariffs in early February. But we are clearly into unprecedented territory.
In response to the new US tariffs, the Canadian government has announced a retaliatory package that includes 25% tariffs on about 30bn Canadian dollars of US exports, with a second round of tariffs on 125bn of goods due in three weeks. Canada is also considering non-tariff measures, while Ontario’s premier yesterday said that he would pause nickel shipments to the US. On China’s side, its Commerce department announced countermeasures including tariffs of up to 15% on US goods including chicken, soybeans and cotton. These countermeasures are still hitting the wire as I type but Asian markets are relieved they haven’t gone further so far.
Risk assets took a sharp turn lower during the US session yesterday (after a soft early session on weak data) as prospects of another late-hour delay to the tariffs dwindled, most notably with Trump telling reporters that there was “No room left for Mexico or for Canada”. The S&P 500 (-1.76%) fell from being near flat around lunchtime to post its worst day of 2025 so far. Both the small cap Russell 2000 (-2.81%) and the tech heavy NASDAQ (-2.64%) underperformed, while the Mag-7 (-3.09%) is now down more than 10% in the past two weeks, with yesterday’s decline again led by Nvidia (-8.69%).
The increased volatility saw the VIX post its biggest spike and highest year to date close (+3.15pts to 22.78). Other risk assets also suffered, with US high yield credit spreads (+8bps to 288bps) rising to their highest level since October, while Brent crude oil (-2.13% to $71.62/bbl) fell to a new 2025 low. And in the crypto space, Bitcoin (-9.53%) gave up the +9.59% gain it saw on Sunday after Trump’s announcement of a new strategic crypto reserve and is trading another -1.40% lower this morning. And in a turnaround from some of the earlier tariff headline, the dollar index fell -0.81% yesterday, its largest decline in four weeks.
This changing reaction of the dollar comes amid an apparent broader shift in market perspectives on tariffs over the past few weeks, with the focus moving from the potential boost to inflation to the negative implications for growth. In turn, this has driven a continued rally in US rates. This morning fed funds futures are pricing in a full 75bps of cuts by the December meeting. 2yr Treasury yields (-3.9bps) fell to 3.95% yesterday, their lowest since October, while the 10yr yield (-5.3bps to 4.16%) posted its ninth decline in ten sessions, with a near 40bp retreat over the past two weeks. And perhaps the best example of the dramatic market narrative shift is the 2yr real Treasury yield, which is down to below 0.70% this morning, more than halving from its 1.47% peak on January 22, just after Trump took office.
The recent narrative of US data weakness continued with yesterday’s ISM manufacturing print. The headline index was down to just 50.3 (vs. 50.7 expected), ending a run of 3 consecutive monthly gains. And other activity details saw a bigger decline, with the new orders (48.6 vs 54.6 expected) and employment (47.6 vs 50.1 expected) components concerningly weak. At the same time, the prices paid indicator surged to 62.4. That’s the highest since June 2022, at the height of the recent inflation surge, and adds to other indicators including the PMIs and consumer surveys that have painted a more stagflationary picture. To be fair, yesterday’s final S&P US PMI was actually stronger than expected at 52.7 (51.6 expected) but the longer standing ISM seemed to dominate.
Yesterday’s other major headlines came around Ukraine, with the White House confirming late yesterday that Trump had paused all existing military aid to Ukraine (that had been drawn down by the outgoing Biden administration), in a setback for hopes that relations between Kyiv and Washington can recover from the ill-fated Oval Office meeting last Friday. In other related news, the FT reported last night that French officials were putting forward a proposal to European capitals that would see around EUR 200bn of Russian reserves that are frozen in Europe seized outright if Moscow were to violate a future ceasefire deal.
Prior to all that, the main story in Europe had actually been a huge risk-on move, as investors reacted to the weekend reports that Germany was considering special funds for defence and infrastructure. That pushed the STOXX 600 (+1.07%) to yet another all-time high, building on its run of 10 consecutive weekly gains. And if we get an 11th weekly advance this week, it would be the first time that’s happened since summer 2012, back when Mario Draghi said the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro. So purely from a market standpoint, the sentiment around Europe is phenomenally positive right now. That might be tested this morning though given the tariff news.
Understandably, it was defence stocks that witnessed the strongest gains, as investors adapted to a new paradigm of significantly higher defence spending. For instance, the STOXX Aerospace & Defense Index (+7.70%) put in its strongest daily performance since November 2020, the day that the Pfizer vaccine announcement offered a path out of the pandemic. Germany’s Rheinmetall (+13.71%) remained at the forefront of that surge, extending its YTD gains to +86%, whilst BAE Systems were up +14.58% as well. The moves saw the German DAX rise +2.64%, marking its strongest daily performance since November 2022. And there might be further news over the coming days, as CDU leader Friedrich Merz has said that he wants to reach a deal on defence before the summit of EU leaders on Thursday.
As our chief German economist Robin Winkler writes (link here), if these reports are realised, then it would be a fiscal regime shift of historic proportions. Indeed, he points out that even if it’s spent over a decade, it would be about as much money as the country has invested in East Germany since reunification. And assuming they were spent and smoothed out over 10 years, the fiscal impulse would be worth up to 2% of GDP, kicking in from 2026 onwards. In turn, the fiscal impact had a clear effect on European rates yesterday. For instance, 10yr bund yields (+8.5bps) saw their biggest daily jump since October, putting them back up to 2.49%. Moreover, there was a significant curve steepening, with the German 2s10s curve moving up to 42bps, which is its steepest since late-2022, back when the ECB were hiking rates by 75bps per meeting. Elsewhere in Europe there was a similar pattern, with yields on 10yr OATs (+7.1bps), BTPs (+6.3bps) and gilts (+7.3bps) all moving higher as well. Much of this could be reversed this morning after the late US news and moves.
The rate moves higher yesterday though got a further boost from the latest Euro Area CPI print yesterday. It came in a bit higher than expected, with the flash release for February only falling to +2.4% (vs. +2.3% expected). Core CPI was also a tenth above expectations at +2.6%. So that continues the global theme whereby inflation is still lingering above target.
Asian markets are extending the US sell-off with the Nikkei (-1.89%) the biggest underperformer but with Chinese risk recovering from a weak opening as the Chinese retaliation has been seen to be measured so far but headline are still coming through as I type on this. The Hang Seng (-0.07%) has recovered well and the Shanghai Comp is actually now +0.15%. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.08%) is flat after being on holiday yesterday and missing a rally. S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.46%) futures are rebounding a bit from yesterday’s slump.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly edged higher to +2.5% in January (v/s +2.4% expected). It followed a revised +2.5% in December, thus keeping January’s rate unchanged for the fourth straight month. Meanwhile, Japan’s corporate spending dropped – 0.2% y/y in the fourth quarter (v/s +5.0% expected; +8.1% previous quarter), marking the first quarterly fall in nearly four years amid growing uncertainties over the global economy. Corporate sales rose +2.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, less than the expected +3.0%. Elsewhere, South Korea’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in February, the fourth time in six months it’s been below 50.
To the day ahead now, and a key highlight will be President Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress. Central bank speakers include New York Fed President Williams. And data releases include the Euro Area unemployment rate for January.
2b European Report
China imposes retaliatory tariffs, US futures modestly lower and USD hit ahead of Trump’s State of Union Address – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 05:52 AM
- Canada said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from Tuesday. China announced additional tariffs of up to 15% on some US goods from March 10th.
- European bourses hit as the region reacts to the latest Trump tariffs; US futures modestly lower.
- USD remains on the backfoot, EUR digests defence spending pledges, havens firmer.
- Bonds bolstered by growth concerns and tariff updates despite pressure from block trades & EU spending.
- Crude pressured continuing Monday’s bearish bias, XAU shines on tariff updates & growth concerns.
- Looking ahead, US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, US President Trump’s State of Union Address, Speakers including RBA’s Hauser & Fed’s Williams. Earnings from Target, Best Buy, AutoZone & CrowdStrike.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
TARIFFS
- White House said President Trump proceeded with tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while reports also noted that the extra 10% duty on Chinese goods took effect as the Tuesday deadline passed with no changes to tariff orders.
- Canada said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from Tuesday if US tariffs go into effect and will start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days. Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.
- China announced additional tariffs on US goods as retaliation for March 4th tariffs in which it is to impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on some US goods from March 10th, while it announced to impose tariffs of 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as tariffs of 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. China also added 15 US entities to the export control list and added 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list and banned Illumina Inc from exporting gene sequencing machines to China from March 4.
- China’s MOFCOM earlier stated that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs, while it urged the US to immediately withdraw its unilateral tariff measures, calling them unreasonable, groundless, harmful to others, and self-serving. Furthermore, it hopes the US will return to the right track of resolving differences through dialogue on an equal footing as soon as possible.
- China releases white paper on controlling fentanyl-related substances, via Xinhua; China fulfils its international anti-drug obligations and opposes acquisitions and shifting of responsibility. China firmly upholds current international drug control system.
- China’s Customs suspends imports of US lumber effective immediately; suspends soybean import qualification for three US companies from Tuesday including CHS Inc (CHSCO), Louis Dreyfus Company, EGT (BG).
- Click for the latest analysis piece
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) opened in the red and have continued to trundle lower, as markets digest the latest tinderbox of uncertainty, which include; Trump tariff updates, the US stock market rout and increased EU defence spending.
- European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with most of the cyclical industries populating the bottom of the pile, given the risk tone. Food Beverage and Tobacco is buoyed by post-earning upside in Lindt (+5.3%). Energy and Autos are by far the clear underperformers in today’s session. The former hit by the sink in oil prices (OPEC+ confirmed oil hike) and Autos hampered on Trump tariff fears.
- US equity futures are modestly lower across the board, ES -0.1%, continuing to build on the considerable pressure seen in the prior session where the S&P 500 had its worst day this year.
- Amazon (AMZN) said to be building own AI model with reasoning capabilities to compete with Anthropic and OpenAI, according to Business Insider; offering tentatively scheduled to launch by June under the Nova brand.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is once again on the backfoot as the support from Trump’s tariff announcements yesterday proved to be shortlived. Selling in early European trade picked up alongside an appreciation of the EUR as EU’s von der Leyen provided an update on the bloc’s defence spending intentions. Today’s docket is light in terms of data, however, Trump will be delivering his State of the Union address 21:00EST. DXY now down as low as 106.15 with the YTD trough in touching distance at 106.12
- EUR/USD is up for a second session in a row as prospects of increased European defence spending overshadow concerns over the global trade war in which Europe is a clear target of the Trump administration. European yields experienced another boost in early European trade after EU Commission President von der Leyen proposed a new instrument that will provide EUR 150bln of loans for defence spending.
- JPY has benefitted from the risk-aversion seen in the wake of Trump’s decision to proceed with tariff hikes on Mexico, Canada and China as well as reaffirming that reciprocal tariffs will start on April 2nd. JPY has also been underpinned by dynamics in the domestic bond market with the 30yr yield hitting its highest level since October 2008. 148.61 is the low print for USD/JPY today with the YTD trough just below at 148.56.
- Cable is once again on the front foot after a solid showing yesterday which brought the pair from a 1.2577 low to a YTD peak at 1.2726. Fresh macro drivers for the UK are on the light side asides from a 0.7% contraction in the BRC shop price index overnight. As such, it may be the case that the USD leg of the equation provides the greater source of traction in the near-term. If yesterday’s 1.2726 YTD peak is breached, the 200DMA kicks in at 1.2785.
- Antipodeans are both were knocked lower by Trump’s decision to proceed with tariffs on Canada and Mexico as well as doubling tariffs on China to 20%. China’s decision to retaliate to the US also added to the trade angst. Overnight data releases for Australia (retail sales and current account) were mixed and provided little traction for AUD.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1739 vs exp. 7.2727 (prev. 7.1745).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Despite a lack of scheduled events USTs were in the driving seat early doors with a huge block trade sparking a bout of selling pressure in the benchmark and reverberating through the broader complex as well. Specifically, a 78k 10yr block at 111-19 hit at 07:33GMT when USTs themselves were trading at 111-23. Thereafter, the benchmark recovered a touch and got back towards earlier levels before then moving lower with EGBs.
- Given the ongoing bullish bias, with USTs firmer in a 111-13 to 111-28+ band, yields are lower across most of the curve aside from at the 20yr point which is essentially flat. Focus ahead is on the fallout of President Trump’s allowing the tariff pause to end, and also on his State of the Union address this evening.
- Bunds are bid, benefitting from the tepid European tone as the region reacts to the imposition of tariffs by the US on Canada, China and Mexico. Note, nothing specific for Europe was announced by the US. Action which helped Bunds hit a 132.85 peak in the early morning with yields lower across the curve and the German 10yr moving back below the 2.5% mark after surmounting it on Monday; currently down to a 2.42% base and holding just within Monday’s 2.41-2.51% band.
- The morning’s main mover has been remarks from EU Commission President von der Leyen, who said that Europe is ready to “massively” boost defence spending, a plan labelled ReArm Europe which could mobilise as much as EUR 800bln for defence. This weighed on Bunds, trimming nearly 30 ticks over the course of around five minutes. Little reaction was seen despite a relatively weak 2030 Bobl outing.
- Gilts are firmer in-fitting with the above points and as the risk tone in the UK market is also weighed on by the latest measures from Trump. Action which has taken Gilts past yesterday’s 93.39 best by 11 ticks thus far. No sustained reaction to the morning’s DMO tap with Gilts continued to trade in proximity to Monday’s high.
- UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt Auction: b/c 2.85x (prev. 2.75x), average yield 5.104% (prev. 5.198%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps)
- Germany sells EUR 3.505bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.40% 2030 Bobl: average yield 2.40% (prev. 2.17%), b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.96x) & Retention 22.1% (prev. 24.6%)
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are on the backfoot but around USD 0.62/bbl and USD 0.88/bbl respectively, continuing the pressure seen in the pressure which was sparked by OPEC+ confirming that they will go ahead with the planned output hike in April. Furthermore, sentiment in Europe has been hit as markets digest the imposition of tariffs on China, Mexico and China.
- Precious metals are bid, benefiting from its haven status, given the risk-off sentiment seen today; XAU breached overnight highs in early European trade and currently sits at the upper end of a USD 2,882.14-2,921.27/oz range.
- Base metals are generally pressured, as the latest Trump tariffs hit sentiment, with China’s levy doubled to 20%. 3M LME Copper currently lower by around 0.4% at USD 9,377.
- Kazakhstan Energy Ministry says they plan to increase oil exports via the Caspian CPC pipeline by 12% in March vs Feb to 6.7mln T.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Feb) -0.7% (Prev. -0.7%)
- UK grocery inflation 3.3% in the four weeks to February 23rd, via Kantar
- EU Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%, Rev. 6.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Morgan Stanley (MS) has changed its ECB rate call, now sees the central bank cutting rates in April.
- French Finance Minister Lombard says “we” must spend more on defence and faster, to spend more we will have to make efforts elsewhere. Do not want to increase tax on companies, want to look at how the wealthiest legally tax optimise
- EU Commission President von der Leyen says Europe is ready to “massively” boost defence spending; will propose to activate the national escape clause of the stability and growth pact & propose a new instrument that will provide EUR 150bln of loans. Propose that member states will be able to decide if they want to use the cohesion policy programmes to increase this spending. Rearm Europe that could mobilise close to EUR 800bln for a safe and resilient Europe. Aim to mobilise private capital through EIB, savings and investment union
- UK Chancellor Reeves says she will announce an intention to reduce unnecessary red tape which slows down the procuring of defence equipment.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Education Secretary McMahon said that President Trump has assigned them the ‘final mission’ to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies within the Department of Education.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli ground forces launched a major incursion into south Syria with a helicopter airdrop and armoured convoys headed to Tel al-Mal & al-Mashara in Quneitra & Daraa, according to a source on X.
- Israeli Foreign Minister Sarr declines to comment on reports of a deadline for resuming the war in Gaza, says “if we went to, we will do it”. We are ready to continue to Phase Two of the ceasefire, but need an agreement to release hostages to extend framework.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Kremlin says it is “obvious that the US was the main supplier of the war” and if the US stops, it will be the best contribution to the cause of peace. Seems as if European countries will try to compensate Ukraine for the apparent loss of US military aid. Need to see how the situation develops on the ground. Too early to comments on reports of “White house seeks plans for Russian sanctions relief”. To normalise relations, the sanctions need to be lifted.
- Finland’s Intelligence Service says the biggest concern in the Baltic Sea is the Russian shadow flee. Russian sabotage actions are taking increasingly dangerous forms.
- Ukraine’s parliament said the country’s security is ensured by US support and described President Trump’s peacekeeping efforts as ‘decisive’ in ending the war.
- US President Trump said he will give an update on the Ukraine minerals deal on Tuesday night and doesn’t think the Ukraine minerals deal is dead, while he added that Ukrainian President Zelensky should be more appreciative.
- White House official confirmed the US is pausing and reviewing Ukraine aid to assess if it is contributing towards a solution. It was also previously reported that the US is hitting the brakes on the flow of arms to Ukraine in which the Trump administration stopped financing new weapons sales to Ukraine and was considering freezing weapons shipments from US stockpiles, according to WSJ.
- US Vice President Vance said it is important for Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian Putin to come to the negotiating table but added that Zelensky is still not willing to engage and President Trump is taking a realistic perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war. Vance said a minerals deal with Ukraine shows the US has a long-term investment in the country and leaders in Ukraine and Europe acknowledge privately that the Russia-Ukraine war cannot go on forever. Furthermore, Vance said Europeans need to be realistic on the Russia-Ukraine war and need to be saying to Zelensky that the war cannot go on forever.
- European official said the suspension of military aid to Ukraine will cause unnecessary civilian casualties and Ukraine will not be able to counter Russian raids after running out of air defence missiles, according to CNN.
- Europe’s biggest powers are swinging behind efforts to seize over EUR 200bln of frozen Russian assets, as they draw up plans for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine, according to FT.
- Russia’s Kremlin said it is premature to determine the location for the next round of Russia-US talks and that Russia-US talks on Ukraine are unlikely to resume until both countries’ embassies return to full operational capacity. It was also reported that Russia’s envoy to international organisations said Russia is categorically against the deployment of European troops to Ukraine.
- China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment says it is collecting public opinion towards the regulation of the import of black mass for lithium-ion batteries and recycled steel materials.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on the back foot with sentiment hit alongside equity markets after US President Trump proceeded with planned tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P suffered its worst day of the year so far amid tech selling, weak ISM data and tariff confirmation.
- ASX 200 declined with nearly all sectors in the red and underperformance in energy after the recent drop in oil prices, while mixed data releases provided little to spur risk appetite.
- Nikkei 225 briefly retreated to beneath the 37,000 level amid the early broad risk-off mood and recent currency strength with Seven & I Holdings the worst hit after reports it is to reject Couche-Tard’s buyout proposal.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after US President Trump signed an order to raise tariffs on China to 20% from 10% and threatened to penalise countries weakening currencies with China also mentioned when talking about weak currencies, while China’s MOFCOM later responded that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs. Nonetheless, the downside in the mainland was limited as China’s annual “Two sessions” gathering began in Beijing with participants anticipating China to outline stimulus plans, while confirmation of the tariffs and China’s immediate retaliation did little to derail the resilience in the mainland.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s NPC spokesperson announced that the 2025 annual parliamentary session will begin March 5th and conclude on March 11th, while there be three press conferences held on diplomacy, economy and livelihood. NPC spokesperson also said the Chinese government attaches high importance to the development of AI and its risk prevention and that China opposes overstretching the concept of national security or politicising economic and technological issues. The spokesperson said that the country’s economic operations face numerous difficulties and challenges, citing insufficient domestic demand, as well as production and operational struggles for some businesses, as well as noted that rising economic and political uncertainties internationally make it hard to stabilise external demand but also stated China’s economy has a solid foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and large potential.
- RBA Minutes stated the Board judged the case to cut rates was, on balance, the stronger one although it agreed decision did not commit them to further cuts in the cash rate and members expressed caution about the prospect of further easing. Furthermore, members placed more weight on the downside risks to the economy and were particularly mindful of the risk of keeping policy too tight for too long, while it was stated that if inflation proved persistent, rates might stay at 4.1% for an extended period or be raised.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Jan) 1.26 vs. Exp. 1.25 (Prev. 1.25)
- Australian Current Account Balance SA (Q4) -12.5B AU vs. Exp. -11.9B AU (Prev. -14.1B AU)
- Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q4) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final * (Jan) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%)
2C Asia report
S&P 500 worst performance YTD, APAC stocks plummet as trade war accelerates – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 01:45 AM
- White House said Trump proceeded with tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico; reports also noted the extra 10% duty on Chinese goods took effect.
- Canada said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from Tuesday. China announced additional tariffs of up to 15% on some US goods from March 10th.
- APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P suffered its worst day of the year so far.
- European equity futures indicate a negative cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Monday.
- USD is mixed vs. peers in the aftermath of tariff actions; firmer vs. cyclicals and weaker vs. havens.
- White House official confirmed the US is pausing and reviewing Ukraine aid to assess if it is contributing towards a solution.
- Looking ahead, highlights include, US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Canada and Mexico’s US tariff take effect, US President Trump’s State of Union Address, RBA’s Hauser & Fed’s Williams, Supply from Netherlands & UK
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were pressured and the major indices closed notably in the red after selling off through the duration of the US afternoon on the broader risk-off theme amid poor US data and tariff comments. In terms of the data, Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the headline underwhelming, driven by employment and new orders plunging below 50, but prices paid soared. In the accompanying comments, many mentioned the uncertainties the looming tariffs are causing, while the latest Atlanta Fed GDPnow forecast estimated Q1 real GDP growth at -2.8% from -1.5% following the data. Markets were then later spooked after President Trump said reciprocal tariffs start April 2nd and tariffs on Canada and Mexico are to start on Tuesday with no room left for a deal, while he also announced that China tariffs are to double to 20%.
- SPX -1.76% at 5,850, NDX -2.20% at 20,426, DJI -1.48% at 43,191, RUT -2.81% at 2,102.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS
- White House said President Trump proceeded with tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while reports also noted that the extra 10% duty on Chinese goods took effect as the Tuesday deadline passed with no changes to tariff orders.
- US President Trump said on Monday that reciprocal tariffs start on April 2nd and tariffs on Canada and Mexico are to start on Tuesday, while also commented there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while he reiterated the plan to double the China tariff to 20% from 10%. Furthermore, Trump said will penalise countries weakening currencies with tariffs and mentioned China when talking about weak currencies and doesn’t think China will retaliate too much, while the White House said President Trump signed an order to tariff China at 20%.
- US President Trump posted on Truth “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”
- Canada said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from Tuesday if US tariffs go into effect and will start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days. Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.
- China announced additional tariffs on US goods as retaliation for March 4th tariffs in which it is to impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on some US goods from March 10th, while it announced to impose tariffs of 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as tariffs of 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. China also added 15 US entities to the export control list and added 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list and banned Illumina Inc from exporting gene sequencing machines to China from March 4.
- China’s MOFCOM earlier stated that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs, while it urged the US to immediately withdraw its unilateral tariff measures, calling them unreasonable, groundless, harmful to others, and self-serving. Furthermore, it hopes the US will return to the right track of resolving differences through dialogue on an equal footing as soon as possible.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Musalem (2025 voter) said the outlook is for continued solid economic growth, but recent consumer and housing data pose some downside risk. Musalem added that restrictive monetary policy is still needed to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target, while a patient approach to policy will help achieve the Fed’s goals and sustain economic expansion.
- US Education Secretary McMahon said that President Trump has assigned them the ‘final mission’ to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies within the Department of Education.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P suffered its worst day of the year so far amid tech selling, weak ISM data and tariff confirmation.
- ASX 200 declined with nearly all sectors in the red and underperformance in energy after the recent drop in oil prices, while mixed data releases provided little to spur risk appetite.
- Nikkei 225 briefly retreated to beneath the 37,000 level amid the early broad risk-off mood and recent currency strength with Seven & I Holdings the worst hit after reports it is to reject Couche-Tard’s buyout proposal.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after US President Trump signed an order to raise tariffs on China to 20% from 10% and threatened to penalise countries weakening currencies with China also mentioned when talking about weak currencies, while China’s MOFCOM later responded that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs. Nonetheless, the downside in the mainland was limited as China’s annual “Two sessions” gathering began in Beijing with participants anticipating China to outline stimulus plans, while confirmation of the tariffs and China’s immediate retaliation did little to derail the resilience in the mainland.
- US equity futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.5%) nursed some of the prior day’s losses after suffering from US economic concerns, tech selling and tariffs.
- European equity futures indicate a negative cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Monday.
FX
- DXY lacked demand after weakening throughout the majority of the prior day amid US economic concerns and with early pressure exacerbated following weaker-than-expected ISM data. The dollar then saw some mild support late on Monday following President Trump’s tariff comments in which he stated that reciprocal tariffs start on April 2nd and tariffs on Canada and Mexico are to start on Tuesday, while he signed an order to double the China tariff to 20% from 10% and said will penalise countries weakening currencies with tariffs and mentioned China when talking about weak currencies. The announcement pressured CAD, MXN and CNH although the support for the greenback was only brief with the DXY languishing firmly beneath the 107.00 level.
- EUR/USD plateaued after steadily gaining yesterday amid somewhat improved PMIs and firmer-than-expected EZ HICP data.
- GBP/USD traded rangebound near the 1.2700 level after recently advancing on the back of a softer dollar.
- USD/JPY briefly dropped to sub-149.00 territory after sliding yesterday due to the dollar weakness and haven demand.
- Antipodeans were subdued owing to their high-beta characteristics and after the mixed data releases from Australia.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1739 vs exp. 7.2727 (prev. 7.1745).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures extended on the prior day’s gains after climbing on the back of weak US ISM data and tariffs.
- Bund futures continued its rebound from Monday’s lows with the help of haven flows.
- 10yr JGB futures initially tracked the upside in global peers but then faltered after a weak 10yr auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained subdued after slipping yesterday on reports that OPEC+ will go ahead with the April oil output increase which the group have confirmed.
- OPEC+ confirmed it is to proceed with supply hikes and could pause or reverse the decision based on market conditions, while it sees healthy market fundamentals and a positive outlook.
- Iraq talks with oil firms hit a snag, delaying Kurdistan exports, according to Bloomberg.
- Spot gold traded rangebound and took a breather after gaining yesterday amid a flight to quality.
- Copper futures were subdued amid the risk-averse mood and ongoing tariff war.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin declined and briefly tested the USD 83,000 level to the downside before rebounding off lows.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s NPC spokesperson announced that the 2025 annual parliamentary session will begin March 5th and conclude on March 11th, while there be three press conferences held on diplomacy, economy and livelihood. NPC spokesperson also said the Chinese government attaches high importance to the development of AI and its risk prevention and that China opposes overstretching the concept of national security or politicising economic and technological issues. The spokesperson said that the country’s economic operations face numerous difficulties and challenges, citing insufficient domestic demand, as well as production and operational struggles for some businesses, as well as noted that rising economic and political uncertainties internationally make it hard to stabilise external demand but also stated China’s economy has a solid foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and large potential.
- RBA Minutes stated the Board judged the case to cut rates was, on balance, the stronger one although it agreed decision did not commit them to further cuts in the cash rate and members expressed caution about the prospect of further easing. Furthermore, members placed more weight on the downside risks to the economy and were particularly mindful of the risk of keeping policy too tight for too long, while it was stated that if inflation proved persistent, rates might stay at 4.1% for an extended period or be raised.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Jan) 1.26 vs. Exp. 1.25 (Prev. 1.25)
- Australian Current Account Balance SA (Q4) -12.5B AU vs. Exp. -11.9B AU (Prev. -14.1B AU)
- Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q4) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final * (Jan) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli ground forces launched a major incursion into south Syria with a helicopter airdrop and armoured convoys headed to Tel al-Mal & al-Mashara in Quneitra & Daraa, according to a source on X.
- Israel is to resume the Gaza war in 10 days if the impasse persists, N12 reported.
- US State Department spokesperson said US Middle East Envoy Witkoff plans to return to the region in the coming days and Witkoff will work out either a way to extend Phase One of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas or advance to Phase Two.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on X “We continue our work with partners. We have already had talks and other steps to come soon.”; “It is very important that we try to make our diplomacy really substantive to end this war the soonest possible”, while he also stated “We are working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace. Peace is needed as soon as possible”.
- Ukraine’s parliament said the country’s security is ensured by US support and described President Trump’s peacekeeping efforts as ‘decisive’ in ending the war.
- US President Trump said he will give an update on the Ukraine minerals deal on Tuesday night and doesn’t think the Ukraine minerals deal is dead, while he added that Ukrainian President Zelensky should be more appreciative.
- US President Trump posted an AP article on Truth titled “Ukraine’s Zelensky says end of war with Russia is ‘very, very far away’”; adds “This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky, and America will not put up with it for much longer”.
- White House official confirmed the US is pausing and reviewing Ukraine aid to assess if it is contributing towards a solution. It was also previously reported that the US is hitting the brakes on the flow of arms to Ukraine in which the Trump administration stopped financing new weapons sales to Ukraine and was considering freezing weapons shipments from US stockpiles, according to WSJ.
- US Vice President Vance said it is important for Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian Putin to come to the negotiating table but added that Zelensky is still not willing to engage and President Trump is taking a realistic perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war. Vance said a minerals deal with Ukraine shows the US has a long-term investment in the country and leaders in Ukraine and Europe acknowledge privately that the Russia-Ukraine war cannot go on forever. Furthermore, Vance said Europeans need to be realistic on the Russia-Ukraine war and need to be saying to Zelensky that the war cannot go on forever.
- US is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters citing sources.
- European official said the suspension of military aid to Ukraine will cause unnecessary civilian casualties and Ukraine will not be able to counter Russian raids after running out of air defence missiles, according to CNN.
- Europe’s biggest powers are swinging behind efforts to seize over EUR 200bln of frozen Russian assets, as they draw up plans for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine, according to FT.
- Russia’s Kremlin said it is premature to determine the location for the next round of Russia-US talks and that Russia-US talks on Ukraine are unlikely to resume until both countries’ embassies return to full operational capacity. It was also reported that Russia’s envoy to international organisations said Russia is categorically against the deployment of European troops to Ukraine.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Feb) -0.7% (Prev. -0.7%)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
end
3BJAPAN
end
3C. CHINA/
CHINA
CHINA/USA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Forces kill top Hamas terrorist in Jenin raid, Israel says
By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 2:59 pm
Weapons found by troops following an exchange of fire with Hamas gunmen in the West Bank city of Jenin, March 4, 2025. (Israel Police)
The head of a Hamas terror network in the West Bank city of Jenin was killed by undercover Border Police officers this morning, authorities say.
The incident comes as the IDF says it has expanded its ongoing counterterrorism raid in the northern West Bank to additional neighborhoods of Jenin. In a first, troops are using “Eitan” armored personnel carriers in Jenin amid the operation, which are more heavy duty than the APCs normally deployed in the West Bank.
This morning, as part of the expanded operation, Border Police officers along with IDF troops attempted to arrest the commander of Hamas’s terror network in Jenin, Issar Saadi, following information on his whereabouts provided by the Shin Bet.
Following an exchange of fire, Saadi and another gunman were killed, and three wanted Palestinians were detained, according to the IDF, police, and Shin Bet.
The troops found an assault rifle, handgun, and several other weapons during scans of the building where Saadi was holed up.
Another gunman was killed in a separate exchange of fire in the same area, the IDF adds.
end
ISRAEL/EGYPT/GAZA
Egypt unveils plan to reshape Gaza at Arab summit, sidelining Hamas
Israel is unlikely to oppose an Arab entity taking responsibility for Gaza’s government if Hamas is off the scene, said a source familiar with the matter.
By REUTERSMARCH 4, 2025 12:01Updated: MARCH 4, 2025 16:03
An Arab summit draft communique on Tuesday adopted an Egyptian plan for Gaza’s future and called on the international community and financial institutions to provide support for the plan quickly.
Who will run Gaza is the big unanswered question in negotiations over the future of the Palestinian enclave shattered by 15 months of Israel’s war with Hamas.
The terrorist group has said it rejects any solution imposed on the Gaza Strip by outsiders.
Egypt, Jordan and Gulf Arab states have for almost a month been consulting over an alternative to Trump’s ambition for an exodus of Palestinians and US rebuild of Gaza, which they fear will destabilize the entire region.
Egypt’s vision for Gaza
Egypt’s reconstruction plan for Gaza will cost $53 billion, according to a copy of the document seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
The 112-page plan includes maps showing how Gaza’s land would be re-developed and dozens of colorful AI-generated images of housing developments, gardens and community centers.
The plan includes a commercial harbor, a technology hub and beach hotels.
Egypt’s idea is the frontrunner, diplomats and sources say.
It envisages a Governance Assistance Mission replacing Gaza’s Hamas-run government for an unspecified interim period, with responsibility for humanitarian aid and for starting reconstruction, according to a draft seen by Reuters.
Israel is unlikely to oppose an Arab entity taking responsibility for Gaza’s government if Hamas is off the scene, said a source familiar with the matter.
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters the group rejects any attempt to impose projects or any form of non-Palestinian administration, or the presence of any foreign forces on Gaza Strip territory.
“We are keen for the success of the summit, and we hope that there will be a call to reject the displacement and to protect the right of our people in resisting the occupation and govern itself away from any custodianship and intervention,” he added.
NO TO TRUMP PLAN
Egypt’s plan firmly rejects the US proposal for mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, which Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan see as a security threat.
The Egyptian plan does not say who would pay to rebuild Gaza at a U.N.-estimated cost of more than $53 billion. Two sources told Reuters that Gulf and Arab states would need to commit at least $20 billion in the initial phase.
Any proposal will require heavy buy-in from oil-rich Gulf Arab states like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia who have the billions of dollars needed.
The UAE, which sees Hamas as an existential threat, wants an immediate and complete disarmament of the group while other Arab countries advocate a gradual approach, said another source close to the matter.
Hamas launched the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and started the Gaza war where more than 48,000 Palestinians have died, according to Gaza health authorities.
Since Hamas drove the Palestinian Authority out of Gaza after a brief civil war in 2007, it has crushed all opposition there. Supported by Iran, it built an extensive security apparatus and military organization around a vast network of tunnels, much of which Israel says it has now destroyed.
Egypt’s proposal envisions that states on a steering board could establish a fund to support the interim governing body and arrange donor conferences to seek contributions for longer-term reconstruction and development plan for Gaza.
END
I
ISRAEL/USA/FUNDING
Trump vows to freeze funding for schools that host ‘illegal protests’
US President Donald Trump says he will cut federal funding to any educational institution “that allows illegal protests,” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
Trump does not specify what an “illegal protest” entails, but appears to be referring to anti-Israel demonstrations that broke out on US university campuses following the October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel.
“All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests. Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came,” he says. He had made similar threats regarding pro-Palestinian protesters while on the campaign trail.
Trump adds that students who have US citizenship will be expelled or possibly arrested, signing off the post with “NO MASKS! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
It’s not clear if any such move by Trump would survive a First Amendment challenge. Courts have repeatedly upheld the right to protest, even in support of deplorable causes, and schools that clamp down on protected speech in line with Trump’s threat could face hefty penalties for doing so.
Trump and others in his circle have repeatedly touted themselves as defenders of free speech.
RUSSIA/IRAN
As Trump cozies up to Putin, Russia reportedly steps in to mediate Iran nuke talks
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, center left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, center right, arrive at a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, January 17, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
The Kremlin says it has agreed to act as a mediator between US President Donald Trump’s administration and Iran on negotiations around Tehran’s nuclear program and its support for terror groups seeking Israel’s annihilation, Bloomberg News reports.
In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says the United States and Iran should resolve their mutual issues through talks and that Russia is ready to do everything in its power to help bring this about, state news agency RIA reports.
The news is potentially deeply worrying for Israel, which has sought Trump’s support for a credible military threat against Iran aimed at pressuring it to abandon its nuclear ambitions, but may now be stymied by the US leader’s increasingly cozy relationship with Putin. Russia and Iran have expanded military ties in recent years, with a report earlier today showing that Russian officials had visited Iranian missile production and air defense sites twice last year, both times within weeks of Tehran launching massive missile barrages at Israeli cities. Moscow also hosted officials from the Hamas terror group following the October 7, 2023, massacre and has expressed support for Iran’s Hezbollah proxy, forcefully condemning Israel for killing terror leader Hassan Nasrallah in September.
According to Bloomberg, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio approached Russia about having it broker a deal with Iran during talks in Saudi Arabia last month at which officials from Washington and Moscow hashed over the fate of Ukraine, an independent country. A short time later, Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Iranian counterpart in Tehran to discuss details of the discussions in Riyadh, Bloomberg reports.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA
Trump Halts All Military Aid To Ukraine As Zelensky Feud Intensifies: Report
Monday, Mar 03, 2025 – 06:58 PM
Update(1858ET): There’s been contradictory reports all day, and at one point in the afternoon a firm Trump denial, but Monday evening Bloomberg is reporting that the US has paused all military aid to Ukraine amid the tit-for-tat open feuding with Zelensky.
“President Donald Trump ordered a pause to all military aid to Ukraine, turning up the heat on Volodymyr Zelenskiy just days after an Oval Office blowup with the Ukrainian president left the support of his country’s most important ally in doubt,” the publication writes in a breaking story.
“The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations,” Bloomberg adds.
For now this is only the usual anonymous official, and while it could be premature (as meetings “mulling” a stoppage take place), it sure looks like that’s where things are headed.
“The official said all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine would be paused, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland,” the report notes further.
If so, this marks a monumental shift in Washington policy over the last three years of war in Eastern Europe.
* * *
Update (1455ET): And in the latest turn of events… the Trump administration has allegedly halted the financing of new weapons sales to Ukraine, and may freeze weapons shipments from US stockpiles, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing current and former US officials.
Trump, however, has denied this…
While the financing was halted in recent weeks as part of the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid, however the move to potentially shut down arms transfers comes after last week’s contentious meeting between President Trump, VP JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.
Ukraine is able to get weapons from the U.S. through several means, including Foreign Military Financing, which provides loans and grants for nations to buy weapons from U.S. defense companies, and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the Pentagon to buy weapons for Kyiv but is currently out of funds. However, presidential drawdown authority, which allows the Defense Department to pull directly from its own stockpiles, has been the most significant tool for arming Ukraine.
On Monday, the White House is holding a meeting to consider suspending shipments using the drawdown authority, a congressional aide and a second person familiar with the matter said. -WSJ
That said, the shutdown of financing new weapons sales began before Friday’s contentious meeting – during which Ukraine and the US were going to sign a framework agreement for a mineral rights deal that would have equated to de-facto boots on the ground, which would have dissuaded Russia from attacking (since the US would have to respond).
Meanwhile, Ukraine has just 90 days of weapons and other supplies to keep fighting Russia at its current pace, according to the report, which suggests that European allies could ‘make up for some of the potential shortfall.’
If the U.S. shutdown persists, Ukraine would lose its supply of some sophisticated weapons, including advanced air-defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems and long-range rocket artillery. The U.S. is the sole producer of some systems, including Army Tactical Missile Systems or ATACMs, and M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars, which give the Ukrainians the ability to strike far behind Russian lines.
Once those U.S. supplies run out, Ukraine’s ability to conduct longer-range strikes, and to protect its own rear positions, would suffer, officials and analysts say.
“Europe can step in to meet a fair amount of Ukraine’s need for artillery ammunition when combined with munitions already shipped by the U.S. early this year,” said Michael Kofmann, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, adding “The challenges will be more visible as we get into summer.“
* * *
Update(1355ET):
Trump continues to talk shit on Truth Social – posting: “Europe has spent more money buying Russian Oil and Gas than they have spent on defending Ukraine – BY FAR!”
President Trump moments ago reacted fiercely to fresh statements of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who said that he sees the end of the war with Russia as being “very, very far away.” Zelensky had even added that he expects to keep receiving American support despite last Friday’s blow-up at the White House, wherein VP Vance charged that he is ungrateful.
“I think our relationship (with the U.S.) will continue, because it’s more than an occasional relationship,” Zelensky said late Sunday. “I believe that Ukraine has a strong enough partnership with the United States of America” to keep aid flowing. These were some of the remarks featured in the Associated Press article highlighted in a Truth Social post by Trump on Monday.
Trump warned in response, “This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky, and America will not put with it for much longer.” He added in reference to Zelensky that “this guy doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing…”.
This comes amid various unconfirmed reports that Trump will discuss halting military aid to Ukraine in a meeting with key advisors on Monday. Given Trump’s lashing out at Zelensky this morning, this certainly does look accurate.
Here’s also what the NY Times reported Friday:
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine entered the White House for a meeting with President Donald Trump on Friday knowing that the flow of weapons and military hardware from the United States to his country had essentially stopped.
By the time he left, after a televised argument between the two leaders, the situation appeared even more dire.
As the two men met, it had been 50 days since the Pentagon had announced a new package of weapons to Ukraine and the new administration had said little about providing any more.
A Trump administration official said later on Friday that all U.S. aid to Ukraine — including the final shipments of ammunition and equipment authorized and paid for during the Biden administration — could be canceled imminently.
This scenario is clearly getting closer and closer, especially given Zelensky’s continued open defiance, issuing statements critical of the White House while appearing ‘tough’ for the European cameras.
Meanwhile…
Trump’s Director of National Intelligence is also piling on in a fresh interview, highlighting the anti-democratic nature of the Zelensky regime…
And more recent fightin words from Zelensky:
Elon Musk within a couple hours after Trump’s initial post chimed in on X:
* * *
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has remained defiant in the wake of Friday’s explosive confrontation with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office. He said from London Sunday that he will not apologize that that his country’s freedom is “not for sale”.
He acknowledged that the public spat “didn’t bring anything positive or additional to us as partner” – however he also said “This relationship will continue because this is more than a relationship in one moment.”
“If you don’t have an end to the war and you don’t have security guarantees, no one is able to control a ceasefire,” he told reporters while preparing to leave the UK, following a meeting with European leaders to agree on continued support for Ukraine.
Financial Times has underscored that Zelensky is not only rejecting calls from the US to apologize to Trump and Vance, but he’s now openly pushing back against ceasefire. The Ukrainian leader…
rejected calls for Ukraine to agree an immediate ceasefire in its war with Russia, saying it would be “failure for everyone” if a cessation of hostilities were not accompanied by detailed security guarantees.
“If you don’t have an end to the war and you don’t have security guarantees, no one is able to control a ceasefire,” Zelensky stressed in these latest remarks.
He still proclaimed that he remains “ready” to sign a US-Ukraine minerals deal, confirming that his aides are now speaking to Trump’s team about ways to move forward on it.
Zelensky says he is prepared to sign a mineral rights deal with the US and thinks the relationship with Washington can be salvaged. —NBC
But the mood from the White House appears to be one of willingness to cut Zelensky off altogether. There are reports that President Trump is mulling cutting off all continuing defense aid to Ukraine.
Administration officials have sought to clarify that this was no ambush which played out before media cameras on Friday, but that Zelensky was rude and confrontational the whole time, and never satisfied with what the US was providing to Ukraine.
National Security Advisor Michael Waltz told the Sunday news shows that President Trump “was frustrated and angry because it’s unclear if Zelensky truly wants to stop the fighting. The President and VP said enough is enough.”
Walz added: “This [lecturing] was the wrong approach, wrong time, and the wrong president to try to do this kind of a thing. This is not Joe Biden. The entire world saw that, crystal clear.”
And this segment from Walz’s account in a Fox News interview is hugely revealing:
Q: How did Zelensky react after press left? Was he surprised?
Waltz: No. His team was. His ambassador, and adviser were practically in tears, wanting this to move forward. But Zelensky was still argumentative. I said “Mr. President, time is not on your side here, on the battlefield, and in terms of the world situation. And most importantly, USAID, and the taxpayers’ tolerance, is not unlimited”.
Waltz: I think Zelensky is used to hearing that “as long as it takes” and blank check from Biden.
He has not gotten the memo that this is a new sheriff in town. This is a new president, and we are determined to take a new approach towards peace.
European leaders are meanwhile trying to absorb the blowback and fallout, now talking about an alternative peace plan backed by “boots on the ground and planes in the air“. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is leading the way on plans for a ‘stabilization force’ to back a Ukraine ceasefire, likely involving France – and which the Europeans hope Trump can sign on to. But the Kremlin is likely to immediately reject it, given the Western ‘boots on the ground’ aspect to the plan.
*END
‘Living In A Bubble’: How Zelensky Miscalculated Trump
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 08:15 AM
Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,
For three years in the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was heralded as the second coming of Winston Churchill. He earned standing ovations from Congress, posed for glossy photo shoots, and received regular envoys of politicians, celebrities, and press from the West.
But one moment in the Oval Office may have ended it all.
Zelensky publicly crossed his greatest ally, calling into question before the press whether President Trump and Vice President Vance, now seeking to negotiate a peace deal, really understood both the land war in his country and his enemy, Russian President Vladimir Putin. He was summarily kicked out of the White House.
The Ukrainian leader, who at times rolled his eyes and crossed his arms in defiance during the fiery bilateral meeting, either fundamentally misunderstood, or entirely miscalculated, the current moment in American politics. His alliance with the United States, if not the fate of his country, is imperiled.
“He doesn’t recognize that Nov. 6 was a paradigm shift in American politics, including for our policy toward Ukraine,” a White House official told RealClearPolitics after Zelensky departed the White House with a stone-faced delegation in tow but without a signed deal to facilitate U.S. mining of rare minerals in Ukraine.
Zelensky had failed to understand “the new political landscape,” the official said before adding that the Ukrainian leader had been “living in a pro-Ukrainian American bubble.”
The drama that played out at the White House was unprecedented. It certainly was not scripted. One source familiar with preparations for the dialogue told RCP, “None of us expected [Zelensky] to act like that.” Indeed, the administration had hoped that Friday would mark the beginning of the end of the conflict, and they expected to bask in glowing headlines after leaders from both nations signed the minerals deal on camera in the East Room. Instead, Zelensky was sent packing, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was left fuming.
“I busted my ass to help Ukraine,” Graham told Fox News from the White House lawn. Easily the greatest and oldest Republican friend of Kyiv, the senator arrived on campus to celebrate a breakthrough. From the moment Russian tanks rolled across the border, he had pushed for more aid and even led a congressional delegation into the war zone to make his case.
His advice to Zelensky ahead of the Oval Office meeting? “Do not let the media or anybody else get you into an argument with President Trump,” Graham said. And then Zelensky did exactly that over the course of little more than an hour.
Even former President Joe Biden found Zelensky taxing at times. When the Ukrainian leader pressed for more aid immediately after the U.S. greenlit another $1 billion in military assistance in October 2022, Biden reportedly replied that the American people were already being quite generous and that Zelensky ought to show a bit more gratitude.
NBC News reported at the time that Biden even raised his voice in exasperation, a rarity for the former president. Despite the private kerfuffle, the two remained in lockstep publicly. Biden often said, “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” pledging to support the beleaguered nation for “as long as it takes.”
Trump exploded that framework the moment he won the election last November. He has called for an end to the war and advanced what the previous administration thought unconscionable: a peace deal that required both sides to make concessions.
Notably, without weighing in on any final details of an overarching agreement, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, during their separate state visits to the White House, both thanked Trump for beginning the process of peace talks.
In the Oval Office Friday, Trump made his position explicit by proclaiming that in the conflict, “I’m in the middle” and “I’m for both” Ukraine and Russia. The president had also previously ruled out what Zelensky wants the most – a security guarantee backed by the U.S.
Trump has argued, however, that a minerals deal would be just as good. “We’re going to be working over there. We’ll be on the land, and you know, that way it’s this sort of automatic security,” he said Wednesday, “because nobody’s going to be messing around with our people when we’re there.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said publicly that the agreement was as good as done and insisted that all that was required were the signatures. “There is no more negotiation,” he told Fox News Friday morning in an interview that seemed designed to preclude any last-minute changes. “There is nothing else.”
Zelensky may not have received that message. The transcript of his Oval Office meeting now serves as a sort of Rorschach test on both sides of the Atlantic, and within the U.S. Congress, as allies and partisans read in their interpretation of who was to blame for the meeting going off the rails.
It began civilly enough.
Seated before an unlit fireplace and wearing signature blue suit and red tie, Trump called it “an honor” to receive Zelensky, who was at his left sporting a black sweatshirt and matching cargo pants, then proceeded to praise “the unbelievably brave” Ukrainian soldiers. Disagreements simmered under the surface at first and only erupted after the vice president made explicit the new paradigm.
“We tried the pathway of Joe Biden of thumping our chest and pretending that the president of the United States’ words mattered more than the president of the United States’ actions,” Vance said. “What makes America a good country is America engaging in diplomacy.”
This was too much for Zelensky, who has watched Russia repeatedly make diplomatic agreements and break them with ease. The Ukrainian leader laid out the history from the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 to the invasion of Eastern Crimea in 2014 before demanding to know, “What kind of diplomacy, J.D., you are speaking about?”
When Vance replied that “the kind of diplomacy” was the sort that would end “the destruction of your country,” Zelensky tried to interject. Vance told him it was “disrespectful” to litigate the issue in public before the media, only for Zelensky to again interrupt, protesting, “Have you ever been to Ukraine?” An extended discourse followed, with allegations of ingratitude. Trump only erupted when Zelensky warned that the U.S. would “feel” the threat of Russia “in the future.”
“You’re gambling with World War III,” Trump told Zelensky, warning him, “you’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel.” The media was escorted out shortly afterward, and the White House rescinded its invitation to sign a deal. Said the president in a statement posted on social media, Zelensky “disrespected the United States” and “can come back when he is ready for peace.”
Outside observers quickly concluded that the Ukrainian had run afoul of Trump-era diplomatic norms. “Zelensky misread the deeply polarized nature of the Ukraine issue in the U.S. and failed to adjust his approach accordingly,” Zineb Riboua, a scholar at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, told RCP.
“Trump thrives on flattery, control, and, most of all, the illusion of dominance. He expects negotiations to happen on his terms, and any public challenge is not just a disagreement – it’s a personal insult,” Riboua added before noting that Trump holds at least two major grudges against Zelensky for what Republicans see as his perceived preference for Democrats and his unwillingness to bring the war to an end earlier. If the Ukrainian leader does not make an allowance for that skepticism and update his diplomatic approach, the scholar concluded, “he risks losing what little leverage he has left.”
The Ukrainian delegation seemed to acknowledge the error. Zelensky took to the social media website formerly known as Twitter to thank the United States, and no fewer than 25 other world leaders, after Vance admonished him in the Oval Office for not expressing enough gratitude. He also abruptly canceled remarks that were scheduled to take place in downtown Washington, D.C., at the Hudson Institute, a source familiar confirmed to RCP.
But Zelensky did keep his interview with Bret Baier of Fox News. He repeatedly refused, however, to offer what Trump seems to want most now: an apology. All the same, the Ukrainian leader suggested that his relationship with the spurned president could be salvaged. “Yes, of course, because it’s relations more than two presidents,” he told Baier. “It’s the historical relations, strong relations between our people.”
END
RUSSIA/IRAN
this is an interesting development.
Putin Agrees To Mediate Iran Nuke Talks After Trump Request
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 12:20 PM
A very unexpected and unlikely development and plan is being widely reported Tuesday: Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to help the Trump White House broker talks with Iran on curtailing the country’s nuclear program.
Trump reportedly relayed the request for Putin to play a direct role in new negotiations with Iran during their February phone call. The topic was further broached and more details were discussed during the US-Russia Riyadh talks which followed, reports Bloomberg on Tuesday.
Neither the Iranian nor US governments have publicly commented on the Bloomberg report specifically, which was based on anonymous sourcing. But Russian state media did quickly acknowledge that Moscow stands ready to help the US and Iran resolve their issues through talks.
A TASS headline issued almost simultaneous to the Bloomberg report says as follows:
Moscow believes that Washington and Tehran should settle all their differences through talks and is ready to contribute to this, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Bloomberg.
“Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations,” he said, adding that Moscow “is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this.”
This response from Peskov appears to support the Bloomberg report. This response marks something unexpectedly positive given that both Russia and Iran are heavily sanctioned by the United States – measures put in place under the Biden administration.
Biden officials had castigated the Iranians as part of the axis attacking Ukraine, given that Iranian-supplied suicide drones have been heavily relied upon by Russian forces throughout the more than three-year long conflict.
Iran has only offered very vague comments, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying Monday it is “natural” for countries to offer to help negotiations along in the cause of diplomacy.
“It’s possible that many parties will show good will and readiness to help with various problems,” the spokesman stated. “From this perspective, it’s natural that countries will present an offer of help if it’s needed.”
Previously Tehran leaders, including the Ayatollah himself, expressed that at this point it’s somewhat futile to engage in direct talks with Washington – given Iran in good faith entered into the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with Obama, but then Trump unilaterally pulled out in 2018. The Ayatollah said in recent comments this means there’s no way to know if a future US administration will honor prior commitments and deals.
There’s also the greater complication of the standoff with Israel. Iran’s missile sites are at the ‘ready’ amid constant fears of an Israeli preemptive attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. Trump has been seen as giving Israel free reign to attack if it sees itself as under threat by Iran or its proxies in the region.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ROBERT H
War drums beat in Europe
This is translation from Russian of a speech Putin gave today.
A speech that needs careful reading. As perhaps you know the US has temporarily suspended all shipments of military hardware to Ukraine. That means hardware in Poland and Romania should not move into Ukraine. And without American airlift support the supply of weapons by European countries by rail or road is not possible as neither is designed for this.
The question is what country in Europe set this off? Europe will never win a ground war on its’ own against Russia. This is a fact. Thus, one must conclude some demented foolish leadership must have either voiced or is considering declaring war. There is no point in guessing if such logic prevails, the result will be seen.
Russia has never flexed its’ real ability in Ukraine. Otherwise, Ukraine would ceased to exist as a country. Perhaps there is reason to ask why Boris Johnson had to visit Zelensky prior to his departure for America and the fiasco there? What did he feel compelled to brief him about? Back in mid January, when Starmer spoke of the 100 year treaty with Ukraine (contains a mineral clause) did this treaty also contain a a desire to fight? Britain’s only hope would be to launch a nuclear missile barrage before Russia reacted in hopes of measured result. If that is the case, then Britain has been told it will cease to exist.
We wait to see what comes because it is clear, America will sit this out!
Below is the machine-translated text of President Putin’s speech.
“Dear colleagues, media, journalists, and guests.
Good afternoon!
Today, again, in the European Union and NATO member states, there are calls for a “war against Russia.”.
Today, unfortunately or not, we can say again that history always repeats itself. Always!
The views of our colleagues from Europe and NATO on Russia never change; they are always ready to destroy Russia, everything Russian, and ready to occupy Russia; their goal never changes.
Hatred against Russia has always remained in the veins of some of our colleagues and countries ruling the EU and NATO.
Dear colleagues, Today we hear again that Russia is an aggressor, and the truth is that Russia has never been an aggressor and has always defended itself throughout history.
That’s a fact!
Dear colleagues from Europe and NATO, Russia never starts a war; Russia always stops wars. You start wars, and the goal is always to destroy Russia.
Russia has never threatened countries, has never threatened the security of the world, but we like to say, “The snake bites the most when it dies.”
You created fascism, always everywhere, and in Ukraine, wars are your work, and Russia will always defend its country and its people. No matter what it costs, no matter how many losses we suffer, we have always defended our country and its people; we will always continue to do so.
As you know, we have proven ourselves many times in our history as a country with spirit.
And today you are shouting again, “Victory over Russia.”
Dear colleagues, I assure you that Russia will not fall; it may be torn apart, but never destroyed.
If a NATO EU country declares war on Russia, everyone must know that our reaction will be lightning fast, and if we feel a threat to us, our reaction will be destructive.
Today, Russia has all kinds of weapons in the current history of the world, I emphasize. (I add: you have no idea.)
You have not seen anything from Russia and its possibilities in Ukraine because Ukraine is our historical country, and there are Russians in Ukraine, and we are saving them, and this is not a war but a military operation. (True)
On the other hand, it will not be like in Ukraine; that is what you need to know.
As for whether we are ready to negotiate for peace, we have always been ready to negotiate, but no one wanted to negotiate with us.
Of course, Russia has no friends among NATO and European leaders, because Russia is a strong, huge country, which is exactly what your NATO and European colleagues do not want.
But accept it!
No matter how much you repeat that one day Russia will be defeated… I believe in God, and God is with us. The world may end earlier, but Russia will not fall.
We do not need a world without Russia.
Unlike you, I know very well what a country and people are, and therefore I will always fight for my country and people.
Are you ready to accept this, as you wish? Are you ready to start a war against Russia again? But we are also ready.
And today’s war against Russia would be an absolute apocalypse.
I advise our colleagues from Europe and NATO to work for the good of the world, not for the destruction of the world.
Thank you! “
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Cancer Cells ‘Cooperate’ To Survive, Study Finds
MONDAY, MAR 03, 2025 – 07:15 PM
Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Scientists have discovered thatcancer cells, long thought to be competitive with each other, actually work together to source nutrients in harsh environments, according to a new study.
Researchers at New York University identified a specific enzyme that enables this cooperation, allowing tumor cells to share resources when nutrients are scarce. When this enzyme was blocked, cancer cells were unable to feed and died completely.
Cooperation Under Harsh Conditions
Recent research published in Nature highlights an intriguing aspect of cancer biology: while cancer cells have historically been viewed as competitors for nutrients and resources, they may also display cooperative behaviors, especially in challenging environments. The researchers examined this duality in mice and illustrated cooperation among organisms under extreme conditions.
For example, the researchers noted, microorganisms such as yeast work together to find nutrients, but only when facing starvation. Similarly, cancer cells, which require nutrients to thrive and multiply into life-threatening tumors, often reside in environments where nutrients are scarce. “Although competition is certainly critical for tumor evolution and cancer progression, cooperative interactions within tumors are also important, albeit poorly understood,” the researchers noted.
They pointed out that nutrient scarcity is a defining feature of the tumor microenvironment and theorized that natural selection might be a mechanism that encouraged survival of cancer cells that could cooperate to source nutrients.
Starved Cancer Cells Work Together for Survival
To find out whether cancer cells cooperate, the researchers tracked the growth of cells from different types of tumors.
They observed that while cancer cells typically uptake amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, in a competitive manner, starving cancer cells of the amino acid glutamine, the most abundant amino acid in the body, led them to collaborate in acquiring the necessary resources.
“Surprisingly, we observed thatlimiting amino acids benefited larger cell populations, but not sparse ones, suggesting that this is a cooperative process that depends on population density,” Carlos Carmona-Fontaine, associate professor of biology at New York University and a senior author, said in a statement. “It became really clear that there was true cooperation among tumor cells.”
By conducting additional experiments with skin, breast, and lung cancer cells, the researchers determined that a key source of nutrients for cancer cells came from oligopeptides, which are pieces of small amino acids that act as messengers between cells.
Crucial Enzyme Could Be Targeted to Kill Cancer
Instead of just taking in peptides, which are small proteins, cancer cells get cooperative, according to Carmona-Fontaine. They release a special enzyme called CNDP2 that breaks those peptides into even smaller pieces, free amino acids, which they can then easily use for energy, fueling rapid growth.
“Because this process happens outside the cells, the result is a shared pool of amino acids that becomes a common good [for the cancer],” he noted.
When bestatin, a drug that inhibits the function of CNDP2, was applied to cancer cells, they became unable to feed on the small amino acids and died off completely.
Bestatin, also known as ubenimex, is not approved for any treatment in Europe or the United States, Marianne Matzo, a certified advanced gerontological nurse practitioner with a master’s and a doctorate in gerontology and certifications as a Palliative Care, Gerontology, and Oncology advanced nurse practitioner, told The Epoch Times. But it is approved and has been in use in Japan for over 35 years as an adjuvant therapy following chemotherapy.
Adjuvant treatments are drugs that are used in addition to the primary therapy to improve effectiveness of the initial therapy, she noted. “In Japan it is used to maintain remission and survival in acute non-lymphocytic leukemia in adult patients,” Matzo noted.
Bestatin consistently blocked oligopeptide uptake across all cancer cell lines tested in vitro, which included a wide variety of skin, lung, breast, colon, and pancreatic tumor cells.
Scientists Blocked Gene to Starve Tumor Cells
Having identified CNDP2 as a factor behind the cooperative feeding process in cancer cells, scientists went on to test what happens when the enzyme is missing, by using CRISPR gene editing technology to knock out the CNDP2 gene in tumor cells.
They found thatthe growth of the gene-deleted tumors was reduced, a difference even more pronounced when the deletion of CNDP2 was combined with restricting the tumor’s access to amino acids using diets low in oligopeptides. Dietary sources of oligopeptides include foods like milk, eggs, meat, soy, beans, grains, and seeds like hemp and flaxseed.
The investigators were also able to reduce the growth of tumors that hadn’t had CNDP2 deleted by combining these diets with bestatin, a combination that could help patients under clinical care, according to the authors.
“Because we’ve removed their ability to secrete the enzyme and to use the oligopeptides in their environment, cells without CNDP2 can no longer cooperate, which prevents tumor growth,” Carmona-Fontaine stated. “We hope that a clearer understanding of this mechanism can help us make drugs more targeted and more effective.”
Implications and Future Research
Researchers aim to translate these findings into cancer therapies that disrupt cellular cooperation. While this early mouse study provides proof of concept, the efficacy in humans requires further investigation.
Existing cancer treatments work by physically removing the cancer surgically, killing the cells with radiation or chemotherapy, boosting the body’s defenses with immunotherapy, or changing how the cells grow with targeted therapy. However, the findings sound “promising” and offer a different approach to cancer treatment, Matzo added.
“This model seeks to starve the cancer cells to death, which is a new approach to cancer treatment.”
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
PAUL ALEXANDER
RFK Jr. moves to eliminate public comment on HHS decisions; In notice to Federal Register, health agency says public participation is not needed in many decisions; HHS would rescind its longtime
practice of giving members of the public a chance to comment on the agency’s plans. It is set to be formally published in the register; I do not understand this decision; how does the public benefit?
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMar 4 |
“This includes grants, loans, and benefits, which is a large portion of what HHS does.”
I like Bobby Jr., I think he is the ONLY nominee Trump has made that makes sense, to me, I can argue you around each other, and I think he means well and can do good…but this decision bothers me. Raises flags! I do not understand it. Runs contrary to all Bobby Jr. stands for. It is a system and feedback commenting avenue I can tell you he/his teams at CHD etc. used across the last years of COVID and used it well and did well in informing the nation and raising hell for all of the harmful lockdown lunatic policies and shit that was done to us by Trump administration in COVID and OWS madness and then the Biden administration. Thanks then for all that.
Now????
I truly have nothing but praise for RFK Jr. I know the den of animals he finds himself amongst. I was there. Same office. I advised his office. Too. So, I know. I do think too he will come through. I trust him.
But maybe I missed something that can assuage as to this being beneficial to the nation but at this time, this move does NOT benefit the people. This smells like monkey business and smells of the insiders doing a number of RFK Jr. Turning him into them. People who subvert the American people…again, I await clarifications but this stinks to high heavens. But do not worry, you see them now, you read their works, there are some begging for jobs and selling themselves to the devil, will write a Substack or two praising this move, and they got the memo, just write a couple praising articles on POTUS and when doing a show, praise POTUS…you may well get the job. My problem is my line of integrity cannot be bought or shifted…for no promise of job or silence or the like.
Over to you Bobby for clarification of this move if as reported.
RFK Jr. moves to eliminate public comment in HHS decisions | STAT
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Doctor Testifies: ‘mRNA Vaccines Are Most Destructive, Lethal Medical Products Ever Used’A doctor has testified before lawmakers about the devastation she has witnessed firsthand among those who received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”READ MORE |
| Georgia Republicans Move to Ban Hospitals from Discriminating Against Unvaxxed PatientsRepublican lawmakers in Georgia have introduced new legislation that seeks to ban hospitals and doctors from discriminating against patients who have not received Covid “vaccines.”READ MORE |
| Hegseth Orders All Defense Department’s Civilian Workers to Comply with Elon Musk’s DOGE RequestsSecretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered all of the Department of Defense’s (DOD) civilian workers to comply with requests for information from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).READ MORE |
| Pro-Ukraine War Protesters Target JD Vance’s Ski Vacation in Vermont, Force Family into HidingA mob of far-left pro-Ukraine war protesters has disrupted Vice President J.D. Vance’s family vacation in Vermont.READ MORE |
| Democrats to ‘Embrace Patriotism’ in Plot to Win Back Working-Class VotersAs part of the party’s plans to make a “comeback” with voters, Democrats are plotting to begin openly embracing patriotism in the hope they can win back working-class Americans.READ MORE |
| FedEx Plane’s Engine Explodes After Bird Strike, Forces Emergency LandingA FedEx plane has been forced to make a fiery emergency landing after a bird strike caused one of the engines to explode mid-air.READ MORE |
| Trump Declares ‘Invasion’ of Illegal Aliens Is Now Officially ‘Over’President Donald Trump has just announced that the “invasion” of illegal aliens flooding across America’s Southern Border is now officially “over.”READ MORE |
| Georgia House Votes to Ban Male Athletes from Female SportsThe Georgia House of Representatives passed a significant piece of legislation that seeks to ban transgender-identifying male athletes from competing in female sports categories.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/MEXICO LAST NIGHT
“No Room Left” For Canada, Mexico To Avoid Tariffs Trump Says Hours Before They Go Live
Monday, Mar 03, 2025 – 05:45 PM
Update (5:00pm ET):
President Trump said he would plow ahead with new tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, as expected, in a broadside against the two biggest US trading partners that underscores his push to remake global trade.
“No room left for Mexico or for Canada,” Trump told reporters Monday when asked if the US’s North American neighbors could reach a deal to put off the duties, as they did a month ago. “They’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow.”
Later, the White House said Trump also signed an order doubling a tariff on China to 20% that will take effect shortly after midnight in Washington. The directive said Beijing had “not taken adequate steps” to address the flow of illicit fentanyl into the US.
The president’s remarks doused hopes of avoiding an all-out continental trade war; Canada is preparing its own retaliatory tariffs, and Trump has another round of levies set to kick in next week on steel and aluminum.
“We’re on the cusp of a North American trade war,” said Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. “The markets have woken up to the fact Trump is serious about tariffs.”
The long-promised duties would easily be among the most sweeping of the Trump era, applying to around $1.5 trillion in annual imports. They would put a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy, which would face a 10% rate.
Trump’s comments accelerated a sell off in US stocks, with S&P 500 down 1.76% on the day. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso slumped after Trump reaffirmed his plans to go ahead with the new import taxes.
A snapshot of all proposed and implemented Trump tariffs so far is below.
* * * * *
Earlier
The official start of the next trade war is just hours away.
On Tuesday, absent any last minute surprise, President Trump will slap new tariffs on Canada and Mexico while doubling a levy on China, moves that would dramatically expand his push to revive domestic manufacturing, tap new revenues and rebalance ties with the biggest US trading partners.
The long-promised tariffs scheduled to take effect at midnight on Tuesday would be among the most sweeping of the Trump era, applying to roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports. They would put a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy, which would face a 10% rate. He has also said he’ll double a tariff on China to 20%.
While the tariff launch may yet be delayed again (the Canada and Mexico measures were already stalled once) any reprieve would likely prove temporary, as a host of other Trump tariffs are due in April.
Trump has says the tariffs are a tool to bring the neighboring nations to heel on securing the borders from migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that both Canada and Mexico have been working hard on controlling the border but fentanyl was still an issue and the tariffs were contingent on both being resolved.
“They have done a lot, so he’s sort of thinking about right now how exactly he wants to play with Mexico and Canada and that is a fluid situation,” Lutnick said on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, speaking of Trump.
Lutnick added that Trump will impose tariffs, but was still deciding on the levels adding that Mexico and Canada have done “a lot” to address Trump’s concerns about border crossings but not enough to address his worries about “fentanyl deaths in America.”
“There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada, exactly what they are, we’re going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate.”
In follow up comments this morning on CNN, Lutnick confirmed that tariffs are coming, saying to “let outside people who live and breathe off our economy— let them start paying and reduce the tax burden on Americans. NO tax on tips, NO tax on Social Security, NO tax on overtime.”
Canada and Mexico have both worked to head off tariffs, though what more they can do isn’t clear. Canada appointed a fentanyl czar and dedicated new measures to border security, as Trump had asked. Trump says it’s not enough, and a White House official has said the metric Trump is watching is domestic deaths from fentanyl.
It has all sown confusion on what, if anything, Canada can offer to stave off a trade war, given that only 70 pounds (31.8 kg) of fentanyl have been seized on or near the US’s northern border since October 2021 and it has imposed existing and pledged curbs on China. Any tariffs are poised to include at least some retaliation that would hit U.S. exporters. Canada — where outrage over Trump’s threats is leading consumers to already avoid US goods — plans to immediately impose retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion ($20.75 billion) in US goods, with levies on another C$125 billion ($86.4 billion) to follow three weeks later. Mexico has not spelled out any retaliation plan.
In another signal the White House is pushing forward with implementation, Trump late Sunday night amended the executive orders issued earlier in his administration. The change pauses a provision of the tariff move aimed at curtailing duty-free shipping, and allows the US time to develop and deploy a method of imposing tariffs on low-value items sent from Mexico or Canada that would have previously been exempted from tariffs.
Overnight, Chinese stocks fell, wiping out earlier gains as investors remain concerned about the impact of US tariffs. Gold rose after last week’s sharp correction, and the currencies of some Asian countries that are more trade reliant on China declined on Monday. US stocks tumbled as investor hopes for a last-minute delay in the proposed import taxes faded. According to Poplymarket, the chances Trump will remove tariffs on Canada and Mexico in the next few hours have been cut in half.
Meanwhile, as we reported earlier, Beijing is considering retaliatory measures on American agriculture and food products in response to tariffs from the Trump administration, according to Chinese populist tabloid Global Times.
A slate of new tariffs is intended to help raise revenue for some of the tax cuts Trump wants and lay to rest, at least for now, the theory that Trump’s brazen threats were bluffs to use as negotiating leverage. According to some, they also threaten to reignite inflation that the Federal Reserve is finding stubborn, throw North American supply chains into disarray — especially the auto industry — and invite legal challenges based on a continental free-trade pact Trump himself renegotiated during his first term. Others, like Stephen Miran disagree, and claim that currency rebalancing will offset price increases. Or, as Peter Navarro put it, exporting countries will absorb a large share of tariffs.
Trump’s plans also risk weakening a US economy that is already showing signs of strain. Stocks and cryptocurrencies have fallen from recent record highs, consumer confidence dropped sharply and inflation continues to simmer. A fresh tariff war threatens to trigger a wider selloff.
The tariffs on Canada are nearly across the board, save for Canadian crude oil, natural gas and other energy products, which are 10%. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has mused about applying its own export tax to crude to make sure US drivers feel the pain of Trump’s trade war. It’s not yet clear if they will, and Trudeau is about to leave office. For context, last October, the Canadian government imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25% tariffs on a list of Chinese steel and aluminum products.
The proposed Trump tariffs on Mexico apply to all imports. President Claudia Sheinbaum has weighed her own steps to stave them off, including potential new tariffs on China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it “very interesting” and encouraged both neighbors to do so. Canada has announced similar measures previously.
US-Mexico talks on security and counter-narcotics are further advanced than on trade and tariffs, two people familiar with the discussions have said. In a bid to show its willingness to cooperate with the US on security, Mexico on Thursday handed over 29 people accused of drug trafficking and other crimes to face charges in the US. Mexican officials thought that could be enough to buy them more time before tariffs were imposed and allow for talks on trade relations to continue, according to a person familiar with the matter.
“We will continue to work to ensure to do everything we can to make sure that there are no tariffs on Tuesday, but if ever there were tariffs on Tuesday, as we have all seen — as we were ready to do last time — we will have a strong unequivocal and proportional response as Canadians expect,” Trudeau said Sunday.
Separately, Trump is also planning other streams of tariffs based on reports due to him by April 1. One is for so-called “reciprocal tariffs,” under which Trump will charge country-by-country rates, based on calculations such as another country’s tariffs, trade barriers and tax regimes. It’s not clear whether the “reciprocal” calculation would include any tariffs already in place, such as the Mexico and Canada measures that Trump has tied to border security.
“We are going to evaluate that and give them an opportunity to remedy that, so we could either see a ratcheting up in tariffs, or if our trading partners want to remedy what has been unfair trade, then we can see the tariffs come off,” Bessent said on CBS’s Face the Nation.
Another stream is a series of tariffs on specific sectors. That includes a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum due to take effect March 12, and which would heavily affect Canada and Mexico.
As Bloomberg reminds us, Trump is also planning sectoral tariffs on autos, semiconductor chips and pharmaceutical drugs, all of which could be imposed as soon as April 2. He launched an investigation that could lead to new copper tariffs later this year. And on Saturday, he ordered the Commerce Department to investigate the national security harm posed by lumber imports, laying the legal groundwork for new tariffs — ones that again appear aimed at Canada.
China said the US should focus on “reducing domestic drug demand” and increase law enforcement to curb domestic fentanyl use. “The unilateral tariff increase by the U.S. seriously violates WTO rules and is a typical act of unilateralism and trade protectionism,” The Chinese Embassy said in a written statement.
According to DB economists 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would likely create a 0.4-0.7% drag on 2025’s US GDP and boost core PCE by 0.3-0.7%. It is possible that the revenues from the tariffs allow for larger US tax cuts which may help reduce the growth impact but we’re also starting to see some of the trade uncertainty hit confidence so there are a lot of moving parts.
Overall, it’s hard to see China tariffs being negotiated lower but there’s still a chance that those on Mexico and Canada are lower than 25% as hinted by Lutnick yesterday. We will see today.
END
CANADA/CHINA
China & Canada Retaliate Against Trump’s Tariff War As Global Stocks Slide
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Asian markets closed lower, European stocks are in the red, and US equity futures are trending lower this morning as worsening global trade war concerns weigh on risk sentiment.
On Monday, President Trump reiterated that he would impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, stating that there was “no room left” for negotiation. He also noted that an additional 10% levy would be applied to imports from China.
Fast-forward to Tuesday morning. Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect, prompting Canada to retaliate with 25% tariffs on $100 billion worth of US imports. Mexico is expected to respond later.
Trump also introduced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports early Tuesday, bringing the total tax to 20% following a similar increase last month. China swiftly retaliated with tariffs on US food and agricultural products and an export ban on some defense firms.
According to an announcement by the Chinese Ministry of Finance, Beijing imposed new duties of 10% to 15% on US food and agricultural products.
Here’s an excerpt from the announcement:
- 15% tariff will be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.
- 10% tariff will be imposed on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products
- For the imported goods listed in the appendix originating from the United States, corresponding tariffs will be levied on the basis of the current applicable tariff rates. The current bonded and tax reduction and exemption policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs will not be reduced or exempted
- Goods that have been shipped from the place of departure prior to March 10, 2025, and imported from March 10, 2025 to April 12, 2025, shall not be subject to the additional tariffs prescribed in this announcement
Commenting on China’s retaliatory tariffs, Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, told clients: “The measures are still relatively measured for now. I think this retaliation shows China remains patient and has refrained from ‘flipping the table’ so to speak despite the recent escalation.”
“China’s hit-back isn’t exactly aggressive — a 15% tariff on US agricultural goods, but nothing broad-based on tech or autos, suggests to me they’re leaving room for negotiation,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X ETF, adding, “That’s probably why Chinese stocks are rebounding instead of selling off harder.”
Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., said, “The immediate impact of these new tariffs on China remains manageable — the measures are currently concentrated in specific areas.”
“Should Beijing roll out additional pro-growth measures — such as large-scale fiscal stimulus or targeted support for high-tech industries and domestic consumption — it could further bolster market confidence,” Wu said.
Sea of red for global equity futures across most regions.
China’s Ministry of Finance warned: “The US’s unilateral tariff increase damages the multilateral trading system, increases the burden on US companies and consumers, and undermines the foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US.”
Should Trump respond with retaliatory tariffs, the risk of sentiment continuation could continue. In the US, the growth outlook has dimmed as the troubling narrative of “growth scare and tariffs” takes center stage.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0552 UP 67 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 148.27 DOWN 1.04 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2746 UP 0.0046 OR 46 PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4426 DOWN 0.0068(CDN DOLLAR UP 68 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.29 PTS OR 0.22%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 64.50 PTS OR 0.28%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.68%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 64.50 PTS OR 0.28%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.29 PTS OR 0.22%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.68%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 454.29 PTS OR 1.20%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2929.00
silver:$31.95
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105.88 DOWN 79 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.995 % DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.408% up 0 FULL POINTS AND 8/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.154 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.547 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4745 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0525 UP .0039 OR 39 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.50 DOWN .805 OR YEN IS UP 81 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5570 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0008 OR 8 BASIS pts to 1.4485
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan DOWN T0 7.2616, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2616 ON SHORE)..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.2727: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2727)
TURKISH LIRA: 36.46EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.408
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.137% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.435 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.890 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2904.00.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.66
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 112.31 pts or 1.27%
German Dax : DOWN 820.21pts or 3.54%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 151.79 or 1.85%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 341.40 PTS OR 2.85%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 1333.24PTS OR 3.91%
WTI Oil price 69.23 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 72.13 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 89.38 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 32/ 100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4745 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5570 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 2.836 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.510 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0609 UP 0.01250 OR 125 BASIS POINTS//HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR
British Pound: 1.27785 UP .0084OR 84 basis pts/HEADING FOR PARITY /USA
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5255 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.411
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.08 DOWN 0.221 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4472 DOWN 0.0021 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 22 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.32
Brent OIL: 71.07
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.206
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.521%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT 3.933
CDN 10 YR RATE 2.874 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.546 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 105.69 DOWN 1.09 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 36.44 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.75 DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles
GOLD 2918,05 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 31.88 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 670.25 PTS OR 1.55%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 73.06 PTS OR 0.36%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.83 UP 1.05 PTS OR 4.61%
GLD: $ 269.06OR UP 2,32 PTS OR 0.87%
SLV/ $29.00 PTS OR UP 0.25 OR 0.87%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 429.57OR 1.72%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE/
ZEROHEDGE/HEADLINE CLOSING MARKETS
Gold Gains, Bitcoin Bid As Tariff-Tantrum Wreaks Havoc Across Risk-Assets
USA DATA
USA ECONOMIC NEWS/USA VS ALL
Trade Wars Begin: All You Need To Know
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 08:45 AM
Trade War Begins: Key Highlights
At exactly 12.01am ET this morning, the long-awaited 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico as well as an additional 10% levy on China went live. The 25% tariffs taking effect apply to all imports from Canada and Mexico, except for Canadian energy which will be tariffed at a 10% rate.
Canadian and Mexican tariffs were supposed to be the low odds given their potential for blow back onto US growth; according to JPMorgan today’s implementation should therefore raise odds that the plethora of other tariffs that are currently in the works – the 25% EU tariffs, sectoral tariffs on copper, lumber etc., as well as the broader suite of reciprocal tariffs – will be enacted and are more than just negotiating tactics.
Swift retaliation followed from both Canada and China. Canada imposed 25% tariffs of its own on $155bn of US exports including orange juice and bourbon in two stages – immediate tariffs on $30bn of goods and the remaining $125bn in 21 days.
China raised tariffs by 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, and fruits starting March 10th, and 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton in line with yesterday’s press reports of agricultural goods being Chinese tariff targets. 10 American companies involved in defense work have also been put on the entity list.
- Additionally, China’s Customs suspended imports of US lumber effective immediately, and suspended soybean import qualification for three US companies from Tuesday including CHS Inc (CHSCO), Louis Dreyfus Company, EGT (BG).
- China’s MOFCOM earlier stated that China will take countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests in response to US tariffs, while it urged the US to immediately withdraw its unilateral tariff measures, calling them unreasonable, groundless, harmful to others, and self-serving. Furthermore, it hopes the US will return to the right track of resolving differences through dialogue on an equal footing as soon as possible.
- China released a white paper on controlling fentanyl-related substances, via Xinhua; China claims it fulfils its international anti-drug obligations and opposes acquisitions and shifting of responsibility. China also said it firmly upholds current international drug control system.
The Bloomberg chart below compares tariffs imposed by China and US – according to JPM, the tempered and targeting China reaction is keeping sentiment stable with China equities bouncing on today’s China announcement.
Mexico hasn’t made a formal retaliation announcement at the time of writing, but around the Feb 1 deadline Sheinbaum said they would impose “tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico’s interests” (with ‘sources’ suggesting 5%-20% tariffs on pork, cheese, fresh produce, steel, aluminium). The Blomberg chart below of Mex-US trade items where Mex is a net exporter to the US and could target these goods for tariffs (BBG):
According to JPM, the muted nature of the price action in markets in the wake of the news is somewhat surprising, given the gravity of the economic impact on Canada/Mexico in particular. One could argue that the stoic USD/CNH reaction is not entirely surprising given that any FX retaliation decisions will likely have to wait till the end of the NPC. For CAD, the lack of an immediate reaction could owe to the pre-existing risk premium in the likes of CAD, but defies ex-ante expectations of USD/CAD spiking above 1.50 in the event of actual implementation. According to JPMorgan there are three possible reasons to rationalize this price action:
- Markets do not view these tariffs as permanent, and the two-tier nature of the Canadian retaliation with the lumpy second batch not due till another three weeks hints at the possibility (hope?) of de-escalation in the not-too-distant future.
- Retaliation itself could be changing the nature of the USD’s reaction function; in theory, symmetric retaliation to tariffs in a balanced trade set-up should not require any currency adjustment; and
- Anticipation of blow back of CA/MX retaliation hurting US growth further promotes the emerging narrative of cracks in US exceptionalism, and markets could also be discounting some likelihood of this US growth cost accelerating the timetable for an eventual negotiated settlement.
According to Goldman (full note here for pro subscribers), the 10% hike in the China-focused tariffs will raise the US effective tariff rate by 1.2%, and increase core prices by around 0.1%.
- This will bring the average effective tariff rate on imports from China to roughly 34%, and represents a rise in the tariff rate on Chinese imports roughly twice as large as the increase over the entire first Trump administration.
- A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico (10% on Canadian energy) would raise the effective tariff rate by 5.7pp, and core prices by around 0.6%.
FX Flows
- In USDCAD we’re seeing a solid USD selling bias, coming from both HFs and Real Money and we believe largely cutting USD longs with the lack of momentum higher here, local RM USD selling, and a view that tariffs won’t stay on permanently.
- In EURUSD there is decent two-way with some interest to Sell EURs the 1.0520-1.0530 multi-top that has been a good tactic in recent weeks; as well as cutting of bits of recently re-initiated Short EURUSD positioning. That multi-top very much the focus right now… Goldman’s inclination is that today might be the day it goes.
Why Isn’t the USD Rallying?
A few quick thoughts across Goldman’s Sales, trading, Rsrch
- There remains a meaningful amount of doubt about whether the Canada & Mexico tariffs will truly be in effect for any meaningful amount of time.
- China’s restrained response and FX stability are a big inhibitor to a broader DXY reaction. That’s unlikely to change through the Two Sessions (ongoing now); and there’s an argument—to which Sun Lu (GS Strats) subscribes—that China is still trying to keep its response moderate and prioritise the domestic rebound. The RMB vs. the CFETS basket has weakened YTD, and RMB REER is near multi-year lows given inflation differentials (i.e. little ‘pressure’ to weaken RMB).
- Trump’s comments in last night’s press conf. about countries gaining an unfair advantage by weakening their currencies, specifically referencing China & Japan as examples (BBG/White House).
- Non-US end asset owners (Pension, Insurance etc.) have been increasing hedge ratios in recent weeks on their US assets (partic. the case for Cadandian & Swedish Real Money), making some large USD selling flows.
- US assets are taking a hit from US data implying a real sentiment and activity impact from tariffs on the US economy. Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing included 20 mentions of tariffs in the press release (vs. 4 in January release). The USD’s beta to SPX and SPX’s beta to tariff headlines have gone up.
- Tariffs are no longer the #1 theme – focus is now on European fiscal, the end of US exceptionalism, broadening of the ‘AI trade’ to China and China policymakers softening their tone on business etc.., which all cut against the USD.
Digging into some of the individual crosses, Goldman’s Kristian Brauten-Smith notes:
- EURUSD a star performer on the session: month-beginning flows clearly skewed towards USD-selling in the majors, buts what is notable is the lack of interest from our franchise to buy USDs on tariff delivery in Canada/Mexico/China. It leaves EURUSD within striking distance of the 1.0525/35 multi-top on the year, and the market is drawing parallels to 2020 and EU COVID fiscal delivery putting a floor under EURUSD. It remains to be seen whether defence spending jump starts a struggling manufacturing sector in the medium-to-long term, but just the thought of it is dissuading EURUSD supply close to 1.05. Through 1.0535 and 1.0600/30 becomes critical – highs in December, breakdown level set back in June 2024 on French political noise.
- GBPUSD likewise trades well with the long-end of G10 rate curves still well anchored. The 200 DMA and December highs up into 1.2785/2811 are critical for the next week, and a break there would coincide with EURUSDs own break of 1.0535/50 – talk of DXY breakdown probably dominates were we to trade there.
- USDCAD continues to see better selling from domestic RM as has been the case for the last 3-4 months now. It doesn’t feel as though Fast Money will overpower this supply, and means USDCAD is probably back being a lower beta Dollar, even were the greenback to regain a footing in the coming sessions.
Bottom Line:
The market is struggling to richen the USD when it is simultaneously marking-down US nominal growth. Our US economist’s view is that we’ve gotten excessively negative on the US data misses recently, but, it seems the market needs more confidence in that part of the equation before we can see any reversion to Tariffs Up–USD Up price-action.
Delta 1 take (From Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky)
Few ppl think Canadian and Mexican tariffs (especially at 25%) will be a lasting feature. Think the real angle is getting allies to impose 20%+ tariffs on China (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/treasury-chief-urges-canada-mexico-to-m…) and so we’ll be on watch out for later in the week to see if this leg of the policy abruptly reverses (the China tariffs are here to stay imo).
Yesterday I was inundated with calls from US clients asking if they had missed the European rally (in absolute terms maybe yes). The double digit leap in defense stocks and the broader move higher in the geography is quite simply a reflection of the increase in fiscal space. The decision overnight of the US to cut financing to Ukraine will only accelerate that debate (expect another higher start in defense). Think we’ve gotten a bit ahead of ourselves in terms of size and scope. Many broad based spending initiatives or new funds will need unanimous support across all European nations (a high bar especially given Hungary and Slovakia ). That said, the case for European outperformance remains as long as the US continues to be a relatively poor destination for forward returns (Mag 7 capex machine instead of buyback machine…NVDA broke DeepSeek lows and crypto can’t hold a rally).Atlanta Fed GDPnow has hit an extreme low of -2.8%. Surely exaggerated in terms of degree, but directionality likely correct. US equity sentiment feels low/extreme but I’m not sure positioning reflects that. Bracing myself for an adversarial Trump at the State of the Union tonight…think any hope on tariff reversal won’t come until Wednesday. Watching Target and Best Buy on consumer.
Side-note: Polymarket summarizes the mood out there (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025)”
Developing
END
Trump To Address Congress As Dems Plot Disruptions With ‘Eggs, Noisemakers & Props’
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025 – 11:40 AM
When President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, he is expected to outline his policy agenda with a focus on three pressing challenges: the war in Ukraine, tariffs, and a potential government shutdown.
This will be Trump’s first address to Congress since his 2020 State of the Union address, less than two months before the pandemic upended his first administration’s priorities. Trump’s talk will mark the only time a president has given a post-inaugural address to Congress after a five-year gap.
“Tomorrow will be big,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform March 3.
“I will tell it like it is!”
The 47th president’s address will begin at 9 p.m. EST.
As Emel Akan and Travis Gilmore detail below , via The Epoch Times, the circumstances are vastly different from when he last spoke to Congress, when he was facing impeachment proceedings. During his 2020 State of the Union address, then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sat behind the president and ripped her copy of his remarks in half in a dramatic scene at the conclusion.
After Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress in the 2024 election, the party now holds a federal government trifecta. House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) will be seated next to Vice President JD Vance behind Trump, with the tone now markedly in favor of the president’s agenda.
Security has been ramped up ahead of Trump’s speech. Capitol police announced about two dozen road closures in effect in the area around the Capitol, and tour buses will be redirected away from the complex.
A temporary, 7-foot steel security fence–which is theoretically non-scalable– completely surrounding the grounds was installed in the days before the talk to counter protesters potentially intent on disrupting the proceedings.
The theme of the address will be “Renewal of the American Dream,” according to a White House official.
The speech will consist of four main sections, the official told The Epoch Times: his achievements since taking office, his actions to reduce inflation, the need for additional border security funding, and his plans for global peace.
President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Vice President Mike Pence look on in the chamber of the House of Representatives on Feb. 4, 2020. Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Ukraine War, Funding Crisis, and New Tariffs
Trump is facing a trio of challenges.
His address to the joint session of Congress follows a tense meeting at the White House on Feb. 28 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which led to the collapse of a minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine. During his speech, Trump is expected to share his plans to end the war in Ukraine.
“I think it takes two to tango, and you’re going to have to make a deal with Russia, and you’re going to have to make a deal with Ukraine,” Trump said at the White House on March 3. “I think everybody has to get into a room, so to speak, and we have to make a deal, and the deal can be made very fast.”
After his comments, the Trump administration announced that it would pause aid to Ukraine.
“The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,” a White House official said in a statement. “We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”
Trump also faces a domestic crisis as government funding is set to expire in 10 days unless a budget agreement is reached.
Since December 2024, the government has been operating under a continuing resolution (CR), and Trump recently urged Congress to pass a temporary funding bill to cover the rest of the 2025 fiscal year.
“We are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding bill (CR) to the end of September. Let’s get it done!” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Feb. 27.
Yet Democratic votes will be necessary to pass any funding bill to avert a government shutdown on March 14. Republicans, who have 53 members in the Senate, will need the support of at least seven Democratic senators to pass the funding, which could prove challenging.
Democrats want to insert language in the funding bill to ensure that the money will be spent and not withheld, a reaction to Elon Musk’s effort to shrink the government.
Trump’s speech will also occur against the backdrop of ongoing tariff disputes, as the president is set to announce tariffs on Mexico and Canada the same day.
The president already doubled the additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports on March 3.
Trump revealed his plans last week, stating that fentanyl, supplied by China, continues to be smuggled into the United States through the northern and southern borders at “unacceptable levels.”
During his speech, Trump is expected to make the case for high tariffs, referring to them as “the most beautiful word,” a phrase he has been using frequently in recent speeches.
He is also expected to talk about his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all nations on April 2.
Many Democrats have argued that the proposed tariffs will drive up inflation, putting additional strain on household budgets.
President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, 2025. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
Trump to Tout Accomplishments
The president is also expected to tout his achievements after a whirlwind first six weeks of his second term, which included 75 executive orders signed as of March 3.
After prioritizing border security during his campaign, Trump signed 10 orders clamping down on illegal immigration and instructing federal law enforcement agencies to immediately begin rounding up and deporting criminal illegal aliens, first focusing on those with violent backgrounds.
Since initiating the change, illegal border crossings have plummeted 94 percent, according to Border Patrol Chief Mike Banks.
In his address, the president will urge Congress to approve additional funding for border security, including funds for deportations and the ongoing construction of the wall along the southern border, according to the White House.
Much fanfare has been made about Trump’s establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), overseen by special government employee Elon Musk, tasked with cutting what the president has repeatedly described as illegitimate expenditures.
As part of a process to streamline government, DOGE has eliminated contracts and leases worth about $105 billion so far, with a stated goal of cutting $2 trillion worth of federal spending.
While some critics are decrying Musk as an “unelected bureaucrat” and questioning his role, the president has persistently defended the tech leader. During his speech, Trump is expected to continue defending DOGE’s efforts and Musk’s leadership.
Trump is focused on taming inflation and bringing down prices to alleviate financial burdens on millions of Americans after four years of rapidly increasing consumer goods costs. In his address, he is expected to outline his plans to reduce inflation, revitalize U.S. manufacturing, and boost economic growth.
Another priority for the president is to extend and perhaps expand the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which became law during his first term and is set to expire at the end of this year. He has also proposed eliminating taxes on tips and Social Security benefits.
The president is looking to secure passage of bills advancing his agenda, but Republicans hold only a slim three-seat majority in the House and Democrats have been staunch opponents.
Across the nation, Democratic attorneys general are challenging Trump’s executive orders, with at least 80 lawsuits already filed targeting the president’s move to end birthright citizenship, among other things.
Dems Plot Disruptions
Meanwhile, Axios reports that Democratic lawmakers are planning to protest during Trump’s speech – “including through outright disruption” (because they’ve obviously accepted the results of the election?).
“The part that we all agree on is that this is not business as usual and we would like to find a way — productively — to express our outrage,” one House Democrat told the outlet.
More via Axios:
What we’re hearing: Some members have told colleagues they may walk out of the chamber when Trump says specific lines they find objectionable, lawmakers told Axios.
- Criticism of transgender kids was brought up as a line in the sand that could trigger members to storm out, according to a House Democrat.
A wide array of props — including noisemakers — has also been floated:
- Signs with anti-Trump or anti-DOGE messages — just as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a sign during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech last year that said “war criminal.”
- Eggs or empty egg cartons to highlight how inflation is driving up the price of eggs.
- Pocket constitutions to make the case that Trump has been violating the Constitution by shutting down congressionally authorized agencies.
- Hand clappers, red cards and various other props have also been discussed, multiple sources said.
The intrigue: In closed-door meetings and on the House floor Monday night, lawmakers were specifically discouraged from using props, two House Democrats told Axios.
USA ANTISEMITISM COMMENTARIES
Columbia federal contracts and grants worth billions at risk over campus antisemitism
“Americans have watched in horror for more than a year now, as Jewish students have been assaulted and harassed on elite university campuses,” said Education Secretary Linda McMahon.
By MICHAEL STARRMARCH 4, 2025 09:14Updated: MARCH 4, 2025 14:32
Columbia University’s grants and contracts with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Department of Education (ED), and the US General Services Administration (GSA) are set to be reviewed over ongoing concerns about antisemitic discrimination, the US government bodies announced in a joint Monday statement.
Due to Columbia’s alleged inaction against campus conditions for Jewish students and faculty and ongoing investigations into alleged civil rights violations, the Task Force to Combat Antisemitism is considering stop work orders for $51.4 million in federal contracts and regulation compliance reviews for another $5 billion in federal grants.
No immediate action on the contracts is to be taken, but Education Secretary Linda McMahon said that academic institutions that received federal funding have a responsibility to protect students from discrimination, and Columbia’s alleged failure to meet this expectation brought its fitness to do business with the government into question.
Harrassment of Jewish students
“Americans have watched in horror for more than a year now, as Jewish students have been assaulted and harassed on elite university campuses. Unlawful encampments and demonstrations have completely paralyzed day-to-day campus operations, depriving Jewish students of learning opportunities to which they are entitled,” said McMahon.
The GSA will be facilitating the review, according to Federal Acquisition Service Commissioner Josh Gruenbaum, who explained that the organization was committed to upholding federal acquisition standards and ensuring that government contracts reflected the nation’s values.
“We’ll be working across the government to end the culture of antisemitism in our institutions of higher education – putting all institutions on notice that it will not be tolerated per President [Donald] Trump’s Executive Order,” said Gruenbaum, referring to Trump’s January 29 order for executive agencies to submit reports of counter-antisemitism actions to address post-October 7 campus turmoil.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a statement on social media that “Antisemitism – like racism – is a spiritual and moral malady that sickens societies and kills people with lethalities comparable to history’s most deadly plagues.”
“In recent years, the censorship and false narratives of woke cancel culture have transformed our great universities into greenhouses for this deadly and virulent pestilence,” Kennedy said of the spread of antisemitism. “Making America healthy means building communities of trust and mutual respect, based on speech freedom and open debate.”
The joint announcement by the HHS, ED, and GSA came just days after a Friday announcement that the Federal Task Force to Combat Antisemitism would visit 10 US campuses regarding antisemitic incidents since October 2023. Columbia was one of the 10 institutions listed in the statement.
Columbia was at the epicenter of anti-Israel protests last academic year, serving as the progenitor of the campus encampment movement. The campus has seen steadily escalating protest actions since the semester began, with an Israel history class being disrupted and the occupation of a building belonging to affiliate Barnard College.
KING NEWS
| The King Report March 4, 2025 Issue 7442 | Independent View of the News |
| ESHs waffled moderate gains and losses from 16:00 ET until they broke higher after 6:00 ET. The rally pushed ESHs to a daily high of 6000.50 at 7:14 ET. After a retreat to 5980.25 at 8:48 ET, the rally for the NYSE opening forced ESHs to 5997.00. The dump began earlier; ESHs tumbled to a daily low of 5030.50 at 9:58 ET. 1st-Hour dip buyers aggressively bought; ESHs bounced to 5974.25 at 10:44 ET. The February ISM Manufacturing gauge fell to 50.3 from 50.9; 50.7 was expected. However, Prices Paid surged to 62.4 from 54.9; 56 was consensus. New Orders sank to a contractionary 48.6 from 551.; 54.6 was expected. Employment dropped to 47.6 from 50.2; 50.1 was consensus. The ISM was officially released at 10:00 ET. However, it is released earlier to paying customers. The early ESH plunge was probably due to the ugly and highly inflationary February ISM Report. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 forecast: Latest estimate: -2.8 percent — March 03, 2025 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx ESHs traded in a pennant formation until they broke lower after 13:00 ET. ESHs hit a new low of 5897.75 at 13:40 ET. An A-B-C rebound took ESHs to 5929.50 at 14:42 ET. Trump Says Tariffs on Non-US Agricultural Products on April 2 – BBG 13:39 ET. Trump Says Tariffs on Agricultural Imports to Start April 2 – BBG 13:41 ET On Monday afternoon, DJT announced that TSMC would build 5 plants in the US and invest at least $100B. DJT then said there is no time to halt his planned tariffs. Trump: “The US has been taken advantage of for 40 years… They can’t come in and steal our money, steal our jobs, take our factories, and take our businesses and expect not to be punished. They’re being punished by tariffs.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1896656163443503330 ESHs sank to the daily low of 5821.75 at 16:44 ET. An ESH manipulation forced ESHs to 5845.25 at 15:49 ET. (24 handles in 5 minutes!) Another manipulation pushed ESHs to 5866.75 at 16:00 ET. Someone illegally manipulated ESHs from 5821.75 to 5868.50, 46.75 points, in 16 minutes! Who? Monday’s King Report: The blatant and egregiously illegal ESH manipulation on Friday put stocks at artificial levels… equities have broken down technically from what could be massive tops, and the odds of a US recession have increased substantially… OPEC+ to Begin Long-Delayed Supply Hike Amid Trump Pressure – BBG 13:24 ET OPEC+ will increase production by 138,000 barrels a day in April…amid pressure from… Trump… OPEC+ Statement: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7477.htm OpenAI Admits That Its New Model Still Hallucinates More Than a Third of the Time If a partner or friend made stuff up a significant percent of the time, it would be a huge problem — but apparently, it’s perfectly fine, if not desirable, for OpenAI’s hot new model. Using SimpleQA, the company’s in-house factuality benchmarking tool, OpenAI admitted in its release announcement that its new large language model (LLM) GPT-4.5 hallucinates — which is AI parlance for confidently spewing made-up lies and presenting them as fact — 37 percent of the time. Yes, you read that right: Read in Futurism: https://apple.news/ANKCGBPNtQ2SrzPlTY-W9wg Positive aspects of previous session Oil and gasoline declined sharply on OPEC+ supply hikes. Negative aspects of previous session The winds of an inflationary recession are blowing stronger! Jack Frost Recession is nipping at your rears! The dollar and stocks declined sharply; Fangs and cryptos were obliterated. Major US equity indices have suffered severe technical damage; and it suggests the bull is finis. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will DJT’s tariffs do? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5882.24 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5986.09; 5810.91 AP: A deal to end the war between Ukraine and Russia “is still very, very far away,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that he expects to keep receiving American support despite his recent fraught relations with U.S. President Donald Trump. (Why is Volod against a peace deal?) Trump Bashes ‘Worst Statement That Could Have Been Made by Zelensky’ – Mulls Canceling Military Aid – President Trump moments ago reacted fiercely to fresh statements of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who said that he sees the end of the war with Russia as being “very, very far away.”… Trump warned in response, “This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky, and America will not put with it for much longer.” He added in reference to Zelensky that “this guy doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing…”. https://vigilantnews.com/post/zelensky-rejects-calls-for-immediate-ceasefire-wont-apologize-to-trump-ukraine-not-for-sale/ @elonmusk: Zelensky wants a forever war, a never-ending graft meat grinder. This is evil. @shellenberger: If Zelensky’s strategy is to alienate the American people, and the president they just elected, one day before he addresses Congress, it’s working. WSJ: The Trump administration has stopped financing new weapons sales to Ukraine and is considering freezing weapons shipments from U.S. stockpiles, current and former U.S. officials said. Trump has ordered a pause on all current military aid to Ukraine – BBG last night @nataliegwinters: Victoria Nuland’s son is part of a think tank working against President Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine War. Prior to Zelensky’s DC visit, the group was drafting alternative “peace plans” to escalate the war and lobbying against the proposed mineral deal… Kagan contributed to CEPA’s “7-point Plan for Sustainable Peace in Ukraine” which demands the US “provide immediate material support” to Ukraine, engage in “maximum pressure strategy” against Russia, and paves the way for US involvement in the conflict. They want the war to continue… Just two days before the Trump-Zelensky meeting, CEPA was actively lobbying against the prospective mineral deal. https://x.com/nataliegwinters/status/1896546760350466181 US Senators and Team Obama-Biden clowns are advising creepy Zelensky to be antagonistic and demanding with Trump. The only conclusion is that ‘they’ do NOT want peace. ‘They’ could be determined, due to acute TDS, to prevent Trump from fulfilling his pledge to end the war! TDS transformed the Democrat Party into the pro-war party. Zelenskyy says the US will have to send their sons and daughters to fight, if article 5 of NATO is triggered https://x.com/DefiantWorld/status/1896598945528443266 @EricLDaugh: Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna says the U.S. must leave NATO because it prioritizes a “globalist agenda that is America last.” “The US should not send one more dollar to these orgs [NATO and UN] & countries. NATO is pushing to drag the US into WW3 but they’re not even paying their fair share.” @profontheright (trolls the EU): If Putin isn’t stopped, all of Europe could succumb to totalitarianism. People could be jailed for social media posts. They could be threatened with arrest for praying in their homes. Rape gangs and child traffickers could run rampant. It’s too awful to contemplate. Most Europeans want an increase in support for Ukraine; but NOT from their countries! https://x.com/RealJessica05/status/1896616731571020223/photo/1 Macron calls on Europe to boost NATO funding to as much as 3.5% of GDP after Trump-Zelensky fallout https://trib.al/hawyIYP Head of FBI New York division forced to retire after telling agents he was prepared to ‘dig in’ (Reportedly embarrassed his boss, AG Pam Bondi, by withholding Epstein documents) https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/03/politics/james-dennehy-fbi-new-york-division-retire/index.html Today – It appears that Team Trump has convinced DJT to embrace the tradition of taking the economic hit early in a new president’s term and blaming it on the predecessor. It is an easier task due to Biden’s obvious mental incapacities and profligate spending that produced inflation. If our theory is true, this strongly suggests that Team DJT will NOT try to halt a recession with short-term gimmicks; and it will play the long game. This is much easier with DJT being a lame duck. Trump is ending the Bush-Rockefeller New World Order that appeared after Reagan as well as the post-WWII Old World centric order. The “Renewal of the American Dream” is the theme of DJT’s SOTU Speech at 21:00 ET tonight. NY Fed Pres Williams speaks at 14:20 ET. Traders will try to create a Turnaround Tuesday, especially if the morning is negative. However, the egregious and illegal 46.75-point ESH manipulation in only 16 minutes near the end of NYSE trading alleviated the short-term oversold condition. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada & China arrive today. ESHs are +6.75; NGHs are +34.25; & USHs are +19/32 at 20:30 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 5994; 100-day MA: 5954; 150-day MA: 5820; 200-day MA: 5723 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,645; 100-day MA: 43,534; 150-day MA: 42,677; 200-day MA: 41,854 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5849.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5807.26 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6079.18 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5956.19 triggers a buy signal @JackPosobiec: Why was one of the Trump assassins in an Azov (Ukr.) Battalion propaganda video? https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1896633758905974881 @nataliegwinters: MSNBC Host Jen Psaki’s sister worked for nearly a decade at Population Council International, a recipient of hundreds of millions of dollars from USAID. The group even lists USAID as one of its official partners. Why does Jen never disclose this!? https://x.com/nataliegwinters/status/1896543029437313223 @theblaze: Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett: “We have someone that is occupying the White House and as far as I’m concerned, he is an enemy to the United States.” https://x.com/theblaze/status/1896596095784071561 The MSM and some Dem solons are aggressively trying to elevate Crockett to presidential candidate status. But she is revealing herself to be hateful, a race baiter, and her rhetoric can incite violence. How many more assassination attempts on Trump do Dems desire? Tim Walz says he may run for president in 2028 — despite failure of Harris campaign: ‘Do whatever it takes’ (The GOP is thrilled!) https://trib.al/q8M9E6U House Dem (Nydia Velazquez (N.Y.)) blasted for ‘unhinged’ Elon Musk rant telling him to ‘Go back to South Africa’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dem-blasted-for-unhinged-elon-musk-rant-telling-him-to-go-back-to-south-africa Dems are directly the derision and hate at Musk that they typically hurl at conservative blacks. @ChadPergram: Johnson on Dems blocking transgender sports bill in the Senate: I cannot believe that the Democrats would not go along with common sense on this, and the protection of women and girls @kylenabecker: EVERY Democratic Senator voted against a law that would ban biological men from competing in women’s sports. According to a 2025 NYT-Ipsos poll, 79% of respondents said men “SHOULD NOT” compete in women’s sports. (Dem cult demands absolute conformity & obedience) Illegal Jordanian migrant accused of trying to ‘breach’ Quantico base busted by ICE again — after he was let go under Biden https://trib.al/YJcriDM Violent incidents soared to new highs after alderman vowed to stop talking about ‘racist’ crime A North Side alderman’s decision to not talk about crime because she believes doing so is racist and contributes to a negative “perception” failed to reduce crime in 2024… (Stupidity making new highs!) https://cwbchicago.com/2025/02/violent-incidents-soared-to-new-highs-after-alderman-vowed-to-stop-talking-about-racist-crime.html | |
SWAMP STORIES
Head Of NY FBI Office Forced To Resign Amid Epstein File Controversy
Monday, Mar 03, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Days after Attorney General Pam Bondi claimed that FBI agents out of the New York Field Office withheld thousands of documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case – after an utterly botched rollout of the “Epstein Files,” the head of the NY Field Office, James Dennehy, was ‘forced to resign’ – and says he wasn’t given any explanation for the decision from Washington.
“Late Friday, I was informed that I needed to put my retirement papers in today, which I just did. I was not given a reason for this decision,” wrote Dennehy, a US Marine Corps veteran, in a missive obtained by the NY Post. According to Dennehy, who apologized for the abruptness of his resignation (firing). Dennehy had also told staffers to “dig in” after officials who investigated the Jan. 6 riots at the US capitol were forced out of their roles.
“Today, we find ourselves in the middle of a battle of our own, as good people are being walked out of the FBI and others are being targeted because they did their jobs in accordance with the law and FBI policy,” read that email.
Epstein Files
Following the lame Thursday rollout of the so-called Epstein files which contained nothing new of import, Bondi asked the FBI to release all the withheld files by Friday morning without omissions – asking Director Kash Patel to also investigate why thousands of Epstein documents were withheld by the agency.
“Late yesterday, l learned from a source that the FBI Field Office in New York was in possession of thousands of pages of documents related to the investigation and indictment of Epstein,” Bondi wrote in the letter. “Despite my repeated requests, the FBI never disclosed the existence of the files.“
Bondi then wrote to Patel: “You will deliver to me a comprehensive report of your findings and proposed personnel action within 14 days.”
Patel, in response, wrote on X that the FBI was “entering a new era—one that will be defined by integrity, accountability, and the unwavering pursuit of justice,” adding “There will be no cover-ups, no missing documents, and no stone left unturned.”
The disappointing release drew response from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), who leads a House Republican task force on government transparency.
“I nor the task force were given or reviewed the Epstein documents being released today,” Luna posted on X in response to the lame Thursday Epstein files release. “This is not what we or the American people asked for and a complete disappointment.”
END
“Everything Is Going To Come Out”: AG Pam Bondi Says She Received “Truckload” Of Hidden Epstein Documents From SDNY
Monday, Mar 03, 2025 – 11:25 PM
After last week’s botched Epstein files release, many are calling for Attorney General Pam Bondi to be fired over the lame binders given to right-wing influencers and journalists that contained old information.
On Monday, Bondi appeared on Fox News, where she told host Sean Hannity that she received a truckload of files on Friday morning containing additional Epstein files which were hidden away in the Southern District of New York.
“FBI handed over a couple hundred pages of documents, but you know Sean, I gave them a deadline of Friday at 8am to get us everything, and a source had told me where the documents were being kept – southern district of new york (shock), so we got – hopefully all of them, Friday at 8am. Thousands of documents,” said Bondi.
“I have the FBI going through them … Now that we have Kash here it’s a game changer of course, and Director Patel is going to get us a detailed report as to why the FBI withheld all of those documents.”
Sean Hannity: “I want to be clear, because I think people are frustrated. You were expecting more, and you didn’t find out – less than 24 hours before the release, you got a whistleblower that confirmed that there were way more documents that they were supposed to turn over, and then you found out just before that.”
Pam Bondi: “Well sure, you’re looking at these documents going ‘these aren’t all the Epstein files!’ – and we’re going ‘where’s the rest of the stuff?’ and that’s what the FBI had turned over to us. And so a source said, whoa – all this evidence is sitting in the Southern District of New York. So based on that I gave them the deadline – Friday at 8. A truckload of evidence arrived. It’s now in the possession of the FBI. Kash is going to get me – and himself a detailed report as to why all these documents and evidence had been withheld. And, you know, we’re going to go through it – go through it as fast as we can, but go through it very cautiously to protect all the victims of Epstein, because there are a lot of victims.”
“Now, is that the only thing that would be redacted,” Hannity replied, referring to the names of the victims.
Pam Bondi: “Yeah, the FBI hasn’t had, obviously, they haven’t looked at the thousands of pages of documents that they just received Friday. Kash has a team going through them – and it’s always about protecting the victim … We believe in transparency, and America has the right to know.”
The Biden administration sat on these documents. No one did anything with them, and why are they sitting in the Southern District of New York? I want a full report on that. Sadly these people don’t believe in transparency, but I think more than that – I think they don’t believe in honesty,” she continued.
“Everything is going to come out to the public.”
Watch (via Collin Rugg):
Maybe they can ask Elon Musk and DOGE to scan and redact the documents by the end of the week, vs. stringing us along for what could now take months?
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
H
harveyorganblog.com 
