APRIL 23/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $124.55 TO $3282.20 AS THE FED IS DESPERATE TO CLOSE THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL//SILVER CLOSED UP 65 CENTS TO $33.55/PLATINUM CLOSED UP $10.75 TO $973.65 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $4.55 TO $934.50//IN GOLD NEWS SHANGHAI PLANS MULTIPLE WAREHOUSES IN FOREIGN JURISDICTIONS AND THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR OUR PHYSICAL HOLDERS OF GOLD/MORE TROUBLE FOR CHINA AS THEY CANNOT GET THEIR HANDS ON ETHANE AND THIS IS CRIPPLING THEIR PLASTICS INDUSTRY//EUROPEAN PMI’S FLOUNDER!//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES/HOUTHIS UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY UPDATES/SLAY NEWS/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLER//REUTERS PUTS COLD WATER ON YESTERDAY’S FAKE NEWS ON TRUMP RELAXING CHINA TARIFFS/OTHER USA DATA RELEASES/BESSANT CALLS FOR REMOVAL OF GLOBAL IMBALANCES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 29 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 1 323 C HSBC 4 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 142 523 H INTERACTIVE BROKERS 2 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 156 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 17 13 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 5 23 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 7 700 C UBS SECURITIES LLC 1 726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 1 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 880 H CITIGROUP 414 905 C ADM 11 991 H CME 129
TOTAL: 478 478 MONTH TO DATE: 64,119
jpmorgan stopped: 13/478
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 478 NOTICES FOR 47,800 OZ 1.4867 TONNES
total notices so far: 64,119 contracts for 6,411,900 OR 199.43 tonnes)
FOR APRIL
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3097 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 15.485 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $134.55 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.70 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.65 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////A MASSIVE 6.271 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 447.70 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 2486 CONTRACTS TO 146,923 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3236 TOTAL CONTRACTS AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 750 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING TUESDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE BUT THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 692 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A HUGE 750 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 692 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 3236 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS OF THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ (0 MILLION OZ). THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ARE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THUS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAVE A TOTAL OF 4.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON TWO OCCASIONS. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A HUGE 692 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A SMALL GAIN IN PRICE, WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 3520 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUGE 750 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.735 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4.00 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK
STANDING FOR APRIL INCREASES TO 19.505 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (750 CONTRACTS)/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 692 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 284 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 DAYS, total 16,030 contracts: OR 80.150 MILLION OZ (890 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 80.150 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 80.150 MILLION OZ///
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2486 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 750 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 750 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 15.505 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
NEW STANDING APRIL: 19.506 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (692 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE WEDNESDAY TRADING.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.000 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 974 OI CONTRACTS TO 465,351 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1432 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (974 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $7.75 IN PRICE TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES (CME CORRECTED// MAYBE?) TO WHICH WE ADD FOR APRIL ITS INITIAL 700 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES AND FRIDAY APRIL 4: 250 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR .777 TONNES + MONDAY APRIL 7 NEW ISSUANCE OF .8709 TONNES/ + APRIL 9 ‘S TOTAL OF 484 EX. FOR RISK FOR 48,400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES/NEW TOTAL AND FINALLY APRIL 14 EX FOR RISK OF 30,000 OZ OR.6220 TONNES AND THEN TODAY APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES// ;NEW EX FOR RISK 7.776 TONNES TO WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NEW QUEUE JUMP OF 56 CONTRACTS OR 5600 OZ (0.1741 TONNES). THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD/APRIL DELIVERY MONTH IS 199.744 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES OF QUEUE JUMP) + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 207.520 TONNES
/NEW STANDING FOR APRIL; 199.744 TONNES + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 207.520 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $7.75 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4113 OI CONTRACTS (12.793 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AND NOW FOR OUR FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS. WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5087 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 465,351
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4113 CONTRACTS WITH 974 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5087 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4113 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD SIZED AND CRIMINAL 2079 CONTRACTS ISSUED.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5087 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 974 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4113 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL 199.744 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES OUR 0.1174 TONNES QUEUE JUMP) AND THIS FOLLOWS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 7.776 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 207.520 TONNES.
//NEW STANDING APRIL: 199.744 TONNES + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK ON 6 OCCASIONS = 207.520 TONNES
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION + ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD: 1)A $7.75 COMEX PRICE LOSS AND WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4113 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES/./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (5087 CONTRACTS)///GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2079 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 56,204 CONTRACTS OR 5,620,400 OZ OR 174.818 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3122 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 174.818 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 174.818 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 174.818 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2486 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,923 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 750 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2486 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 750 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3520 CONTRACTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 16.180 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.40 PTS OR 0.10%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 510.30 PTS OR 2.37%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 648.03 OR 1.89%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.39%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2893 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2874/ Oil UP TO 64.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.02 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED974 CONTRACTS TO 465,351 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.75 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5087 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A HUGE 600 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES. SO FAR THIS MONTH WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 6 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL STANDS AT 7.776 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST TWO PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.
DETAILS ON APRIL COMEX MONTH
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4113 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH OF APRIL CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A BIT LARGER THAN FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 2079 CONTRACTS
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 205 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 219 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1.2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL .… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 5087 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /APRIL 5087 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5087 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4113 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5087 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 974 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.75 FOR TUESDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOWER OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX!
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A GOOD SIZED 2079 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S THESE PAST FEW MONTHS,, THE FED HAS BEEN EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. DURING OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK, A HUGE RAID WAS ORDERED BY THE FED WITH END OF THE MONTH TRADING ( FEB 25 THROUGH FEB 28) AS THE GOLD PRICE GOT HAMMERED A BIT WITH ONLY THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD LOWERING! . AND ,FOR MARCH, WE HAD+ ANOTHER 5 DAY MEGA ISSUANCE BUT CORRESPONDING MEGA RAIDS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT WEDNESDAY MARCH 17, THE 38,393 T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD!
THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH AND APRIL.
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON FEB 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR//MONTH END SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE JANUARY OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING AND AGAIN WITH FEBRUARY OPTION EXPIRY MONTH. HALF WAY THROUGH THE JANUARY COMEX MONTH, THE CROOKS ISSUED FIVE CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF T.A.S KNOWING THAT THEY WERE GOING TO INITIATE HUGE RAIDS ON OUR METALS. THEN THEY ISSUED IN LATE FEB, ANOTHER 5 CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ ISSUANCES. AND THEN, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN COMEX HISTORY WE WITNESSED THREE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF MEGA HUGE 30,000 + T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUANCES: JANUARY, FEB AND MARCH. WE HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A MEGA CONSECUTIVE 30,000 CONTRACT T.A.S FOR APRIL.
STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (207.520 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 4 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
STANDING FOR GOLD: 199.744 TONNES + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 207.520 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 207.520 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
COMEX GOLD TRADING/APRIL CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A $7.75/ /)/BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY AS THEY WERE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE $3,400 AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS THEY SUCCEEDED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO STOP THE PENETRATION OF OUR $3,400 DOLLAR GOLD BARRIER AS IT IS NOW TRADING WELL BELOW THAT AT $3292 PER OZ AS I WRITE THIS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD) THIS PAST MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /APRIL TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCE
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
NOW APRIL, ISSUES ITS 6TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 600 CONTRACTS OR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK/APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 FOR 7.776 TONNES OF GOLD!
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES//NEW TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 7.776 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
STANDING FOR GOLD NOW FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 199.744 TONNES +(7.776 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =207.525 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS APRIL DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FIRST DAY NOTICE;
WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 17.247 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL FIRST RECORDED AT 166.964 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCES FOR 7.776 TONNES.
ALSO TODAY WE RECORD ANOTHER 56 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5600 OZ OR 0.1741 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD OUR 7.776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY OF 199.744 TONNES AND THUS STANDING FOR GOLD FOR APRIL IS NOW 207.520 TONNES, THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED!
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $7.75
WE HAD 1432 CONTRACTS REM,OVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4113 CONTRACTS OR 411,300 0Z (12.793 TONNES)
3 entries a) Out of Brinks 110,134.684 oz b) Out of JPMorgan: 65,298.681 oz (2031 kilobars) c) Out of Loomis: 25,720.800 oz (800 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 201,154.165 oz or 6.26 tonnes_
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRIES
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
we have 1 customer entry
1 ENTRIES: 1 DEPOSIT
I) INTO Ashai 32,016.960 OZ
total weight DEPOSIT: 32,016.960oz or 0.995 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today
478 notice(s) 47,800 OZ 1.4867 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
99 contracts 9900 OZ 0.3079 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
64,119 notices 6,411,900 oz 199.43 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
TOTAL WEIGHT; 0 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
we have 1 customer entries
we have 1 customer deposit entry
1 ENTRIES: 1 DEPOSIT
I) INTO Ashai 32,016.960 OZ
total weight DEPOSIT: 32,016.960oz or 0.995 tonnes
total deposit 32,016.960 OZ 0.995 tonnes
NIL
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
3 entries a) Out of Brinks 110,134.684 oz b) Out of JPMorgan: 65,298.681 oz (2031 kilobars) c) Out of Loomis: 25,720.800 oz (800 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 201,154.165 oz or 6.26 tonnes_
adjustments: 2 dealer to customer
a) JPMorgan: 13,575.552 oz
ii) Malca: 96,453.000 oz (3,000 kilobars)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL
THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAD A LOSS OF 91 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 577. WE HAD 147 CONTRACTS FILED YESTERDAY. THUS WE GAINED 56 CONTRACTS OR 5,600 OZ (.1741 TONNES) AS WE EXPERIENCED ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DESIRED TO TAKE PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER HERE. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. LAST FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6.1619 TONNES REPRESENTED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS HIGHEST RECORDED WAS AT 5.90 TONNES.
MAY LOST 6 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 6108 CONTRACTS. MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND WE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRONG DELIVERY MONTH EVEN THOUGH IT IS AN OFF MONTH!
JUNE LOST 4313 CONTRACTS TO 350,351. JUNE WILL STILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH
We had 478 contracts filed for today representing 47,800 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 17 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 478 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 13 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (64,119 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (577 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (478 x 100 oz per contract) equals 6,421,800 OZ OR 199.744 TONNES
to which we add our 6 exchange for risk issuances for April of 7.776 tonnes
= 207.520 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (64,119 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of APRIL (577 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (478 x 100 oz) which equals 6,421,800 OZ OR 199.744 TONNES + 7.776 tonnes ex for risks = 207.520 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.: 207.520 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL IS FOLLOWING SUIT..
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 199.954million oz/496.891oz million or 40.22%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 159.627 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 496.891Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2025 OI: 4 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 44 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 45 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 5,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS WERE NOT WILLING TO WAIT FOR DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER HERE SO THEY ARE TRYING TO TAKE DELIVERY AT ENGLAND .
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 4226 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 46,441 CONTRACTS. MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING THIS MONTH.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 222 CONTRACTS UP TO 2733 CONTRACTS.
JULY GAINED 6137 CONTRACTS UP TO 78,839
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 or 0.000 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 122,139 mega t.a.s. release//
AND NOW APRIL DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3097 X5,000 oz = 15.485 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (4) AND the number of notices served upon today (0 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL 2025 contract month: (3097) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL(4) minus number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL contract month equating to 15.505 MILLION OZ . WE MUST NOW ADD OUR 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON MONDAY MARCH 31 AND TODAY APRIL 4/NEW STANDING DECREASES TO 19.505 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 19.505 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 159.627million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
APRIL9 WITH GOLD UP $83.50 TODAY// MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.171 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.23 TONNES
APRIL8 WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.78 TONNES
APRIL3 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.85 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
APRIL2 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.37 TONNES
APRIL1 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.38 TONNES
MARCH 31 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.36 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.07 TONNES
MARCH 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 20.08 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.51 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 947.70 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
APRIL9 WITH SILVER UP $0.96 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.104 MILLION
APRIL8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447,421 MILLION
APRIL3 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.138 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.830 MILLION
APRIL2 WITH SILVER UP 0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .364 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.968 MILLION
APRIL1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 0.91000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.092 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.422 MILLION
MARCH 27 WITH SILVER UP $.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 13.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.883 MILLION
MARCH 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.04 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.728 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.234 MILLION
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-04-22 16:14 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Canada’s Barrick Gold said today it will exit the Donlin gold Project in Alaska by selling its 50% stake to billionaire John Paulson and NovaGold Resources for up to $1.1 billion.
The Donlin Gold project is a proposed mine that holds roughly 39 million ounces of gold. It was jointly owned by Barrick Gold and NovaGold, holding a 50% stake each.
U.S.-listed shares of Barrick Gold were up 1.7% before the bell, which were also supported by higher prices of the bullion.
Paulson and NovaGold will acquire 80% and 20%, respectively, of Barrick Gold’s interest in the entity, for $1 billion in cash. …
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-04-22 14:01 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson Reuters Tuesday, April 22, 2025
BEIJING — China is considering setting up overseas warehouses to aid international settlement of specific products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, its central bank said Monday.
Shanghai Gold Exchange will be supported to conduct cooperation with overseas exchanges to expand use of the yuan benchmark in the international market, the statement said.
The plan to further enhance cross-border financial services in Shanghai was jointly issued by four state agencies including the People’s Bank of China.
Although it did not specify which products would be subject to the plan, the Shanghai Gold Exchange mainly deals with trading of precious metals gold, silver, and platinum.
Beijing has long wanted to step up globalisation of some commodities to enhance its pricing power and international influence. …
Ross Beaty-backed Lumina Gold agrees to $581 million acquisition by China’s CMOC
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-04-22 12:45 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Niall McGee The Globe and Mail, Toronto Monday, April 21, 2025
Ross Beaty-backed Lumina Gold Corp. has agreed to be acquired by a subsidiary of China’s CMOC Group Ltd. for $581 million.
Vancouver-based Lumina is developing the Cangrejos gold project in Ecuador. In 2023 the company published an engineering study that showed the potential for a mine to produce 9.8 million ounces of gold, 7.8 million ounces of silver, and 1.1 billion pounds of copper over 26 years. The capital cost for the initial phase of the project was projected at US$925 million.
Well-known Canadian mining financier and philanthropist Beaty is Lumina’s biggest shareholder.
CMOC Singapore Pte. Ltd. is offering to pay $1.27 a share in cash to Lumina shareholders, a 41% premium to the stock’s closing price on Thursday. CMOC Group is a major global producer of molybdenum and tungsten in China, of copper and cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and of niobium and phosphate in Brazil.
CMOC is publicly traded, but one of its largest shareholders is Luoyang Mining Group, a state-controlled entity in China. …
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//COPPER
Breaking Down Copper Trade In Charts Amid Noisy Trade War, IMF Downgrade
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 05:45 AM
The ongoing trade war is poised to deliver a negative shock to US growth, prompting the International Monetary Fund to slash its 2025 forecast earlier Tuesday. This gloomier outlook has sharpened our focus on the once high-flying industrial metals market—now showing signs of weakness—particularly the copper market.
Goldman analyst Adam Gillard provided clients with a snapshot of current conditions in the copper market, highlighting tight physical supply in China and continued strength in domestic demand.
However, Gillard cautioned that ongoing global industrial production weakness and declining Chinese exports—driven by the deepening trade war—could tip the market into surplus.
The analyst outlined four micro data points on the copper markets for clients to better gauge sentiment:
1. US cathode imports: YTD imports from BL data 408k MT implying an “over-import” of ~100k MT vs market expectations of ~300k MT (by June). If this run rate continues LME should tighten despite the likely tariff related demand shock.
2. Scrap: US scrap spreads remain under pressure as rising discounts erode the CME premium (US scrap is priced off CMX). March exports unchanged sequentially despite ARB strength; we don’t have April export data yet but this will be key given lower US exports (FY production ~542k MT contained) were key to the bull thesis.
3. Chinese demand: Ostensibly strong; YTD demand +10% due to production strength (from increased smelter capacity), seasonally adjusted stock draws (in part due to tariff related tolling exports) and strong net imports (despite deeply negative SHFE / LME import arb). Think this figure inflated by SMM production numbers (base affect) but a strong number nonetheless.
4. Positioning: Although our CTA model is running close to max short LME net spec at 28k is above the Aug24 low of 16k, and China appear to be still be running long on Shanghai (due to strong domestic demand).
The question remains whether copper bulls like Kostas Bintas, Trafigura Group’s former co-head of metals and now with Mercuria Energy Group, and/or Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie (former Goldman boss of commodities) are still bullish on the industrial metal—or if the trade war has delayed their thesis of much higher prices.
LME Copper…
. . .
END
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.40 PTS OR 0.10%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 510.30 PTS OR 2.37%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 648.03 OR 1.89%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.39%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2893 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2874/ Oil UP TO 64.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.02 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2894 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2873 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 3.40 PTS OR 0.10%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 510.30 PTS OR 2.37%
2. Nikkei closed UP 648.03 PTS OR 1.89%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.93// EURO RISES TO 1.1389 UP 35 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.331//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.01…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4660/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.5696 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.160%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.3229
3j Gold at $3335/35 Silver at: 32.97 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 46 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.97
3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.01// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.331% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8241 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9387 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.304 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.844 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.816 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.29
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.537 DOWN 9 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.155 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.754 DOWN 4 PTS
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Surge After Trump Tones Down Rhetoric On China, POWELL
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 08:26 AM
US futures jumped and the dollar stabilized after president Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell, easing some fears on the Fed’s independence, while he also plans to be “very nice” to China in trade talks and sees China tariff coming down substantially which hinted a potential pivot in trade policy. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 2.3%, with Nasdaq futures surging 2.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 names are all higher led by TSLA (+6.4%, after Musk said that his time on DOGE will significantly drop next month), NVDA (+4.9%), AMZN (+4.1%) and META (+3.7%). Intel rose 3% on reports it will cut more than 20% of its staff, a move aimed at eliminating bureaucracy. 10y TSY yields are down 10bps to 4.30% as longer-dated Treasuries rally, recovering from selling on concerns about the Fed’s continued independence; the USD reversed earlier gains. Commodities are mostly higher led by oil (+1.6%) and base metals; gold is 1.3% lower.
In premarket trading, Tesla led the Mag 7 stocks higher as CEO Elon Musk pledged to pull back from his work with the US government to concentrate on the electric-vehicle company (Tesla +7.4%, Alphabet +2.4%, Nvidia +5.7%, Amazon +5%, Apple +3.3%, Microsoft +2.6%, Meta +4.7%). Chip, cryptocurrency-linked stocks and US-listed Chinese companies rally after Trump said China tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. The president also said he had no intention of firing Powell. Semiconductors gained (SMCI +6.7%, Nvidia +5.7%, Dell +5.5%) as did Apple suppliers: (Qualcomm +2.6%, Broadcom +4.6%, Cirrus Logic +4.3%). Crypto-linked stocks jumped after bitcoin surged above $94,000 (Robinhood +8.1%, Coinbase +4.2%, MicroStrategy +3.4%). Here are some other notable movers:
AT&T gains 4% after adding 324,000 mobile-phone customers in the first quarter, beating Wall Street projections for 254,000.
Boston Scientific rises 6% after the medical device firm boosted its net sales and adjusted profit forecast for the full year.
Bristol-Myers Squibb falls 4.7% after the company’s treatment for schizophrenia failed in a study designed to expand its use, denting the company’s ambitions to turn it into a blockbuster.
Enphase Energy drops 11% after the solar equipment maker’s revenue forecast missed analyst estimates at the midpoint. Morgan Stanley downgrades the stock to underweight from equal-weight.
Intel rises 4% as the company is poised to announce plans this week to cut more than 20% of its staff, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
Packaging drops 4.5% after the containerboard producer p gave a second-quarter earnings per share forecast that was below the average analyst estimate.
Pegasystems soars 26% after the customer relationship management software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
Philip Morris climbs 3% after the tobacco company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
Sportradar slips 3.6% after shareholders including an affiliate of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, an affiliate of Technology Crossover Ventures, and Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl offered 23 million class A shares via Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan.
Vertiv Holdings advances 18% after the company boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.
XPeng ADRs jumps 8% after the Chinese electric vehicle maker unveiled a fast-charging variant of its P7+ sedan model at the 2025 Shanghai auto show.
Wall Street is set to build on the biggest equity gains in two weeks, with S&P 500 futures climbing 2.3% after Trump allayed fears that he plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Optimism of easing US-China trade tensions added to the risk-on mood. Treasuries also rallied as worries about threats to Powell’s position faded: 10-year yields dropped ten basis points to 4.30%. A gauge of dollar strength steadied after rallying from a 16-month low. Bitcoin stormed above $90,000 for the first time since early March. Gold fell as demand for havens cooled. Oil extended its rebound.
Trump said Tuesday he had no intention of firing Powell, despite his frustration with the Fed not moving more quickly to lower borrowing costs. The president posted on social media last week that the Fed chair’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” His rebuke of the Fed and comments from officials that Trump was studying whether he could replace its chief had sent the dollar to the lowest level since December 2023.
Trump’s comments on the Fed chief late Tuesday are a walk-back from opinions expressed in the past week that sparked concerns about the US central bank’s independence. On the trade front, Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a standoff with China can be de-escalated. On trade, Trump said he plans to be “very nice” to China in any talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. The US president also said that final tariffs on China wouldn’t be “anywhere near” the 145% level set.
Still, gains come with a warning from some on Wall Street of possible “head fakes,” given Trump’s unpredictability. Stock trading volumes were light on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 remains down about 7% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Some money managers, like Janus Henderson, are looking to cut exposure to the US.
“I took the view that the actual probability of Powell getting sacked was close to zero, but the tuning down of the rhetoric on China is clearly a relief,” said Francois Rimeu, a strategist at La Francaise AM in Paris.
“It’s really hard to see the endgame on trade,” said Rimeu at La Francaise AM. “Investors need to prepare in the event that say, in three months, we land with US tariffs that are manageable for the global economy.”
“If one is optimistic, one can take the view that Trump is slowly backing down on trade and on firing Powell,” said Gillles Guibout, head of European equities at AXA IM. “But he has a structural tendency to create uncertainty and now there’s a real defiance among international investors, and that’s palpable in the dollar.”
It’s also a busy day for earnings, with Boeing rising in premarket after first-quarter sales topped estimates. AT&T climbed after a strong first-quarter report. Philip Morris gained as its earnings forecast beat estimates. SAP soared the most in six years after profit at Europe’s most valuable company exceeded expectations.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 1.8%, led by gains in mining and technology shares. SAP soared as much as 11% after the German software firm reported profit and free cash flow that topped estimates; Reckitt Benckiser was the biggest laggard. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
SAP shares surge as much as 11% after the German software company reported a 29% growth in current cloud backlog on constant-currency terms, indicating resilient demand for its cloud-based software
BE Semiconductor soars as much as 10% after the Dutch firm said two leading memory chipmakers placed orders for its hybrid bonders, a chip-packaging technology used to connect chips and enhance their performance
Croda shares rise as much as 10%, their best one-day gain in 14 years, after the chemicals maker reported earnings and analysts pointed to a strong performance across divisions
Valmet shares rise as much as 9.6% after the supplier of tech and services to the pulp and paper industries reported higher order numbers than anticipated and reiterated its annual outlook
Babcock International shares rise as much as 6%, in sixth straight day of gains and hitting the highest level since July 2018, after the support services company released a pre-close update
Randstad shares rise as much as 6.2% after the Dutch staffing firm’s earnings beat estimates with a smaller-than-expected contraction in first-quarter organic revenue, with analysts pointing to stable trends
Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 8.2% after the specialty chemicals firm posted first-quarter Ebitda that was ahead of consensus and reaffirmed its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year
Reckitt Benckiser shares drop as much as 4.7% after the personal care and homecare product maker delivered like-for-like growth below expectations following a miss in North America and Europe
European defense shares fall, with traders pointing to a Financial Times report that said Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his country’s invasion of Ukraine across the current front line
Temenos shares drop as much as 8.3%, the most since October, after reporting results that reflect a difficult start to the year and add risk to the company’s reiterated full-year forecasts
Hochschild Mining shares plunge as much as 17%, the most in over three months, after first-quarter production fell short of expectations. Analysts point to poor weather and challenges at the Mara Rosa mine
OVH Groupe slides as much as 11%, following two sessions of strong gains, after Morgan Stanley downgraded to underweight and said the cloud computing company’s valuation appears stretched
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied after President Donald Trump’s administration indicated softer stances on trade with China and Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.9%, with TSMC and Alibaba among the biggest contributors. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan led gains in the region. One by one, equity benchmarks in Asia are recouping losses suffered since Trump’s announcement of inceased tariffs on April 2. India, which has emerged as a relative safe haven amid the tariff war, was the first major global market to wipe out such declines last week. South Korea and Australia stock gauges did so on Wednesday, after Indonesia on Tuesday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, wiping out an earlier 0.6% gain; the US currency fell versus all G-10 currencies bar the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc; the higher-risk Australian dollar rose, gained amid hopes of easing trade tensions between China and the US. The Swiss franc falls 0.2% and to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile while the yen weakens 0.1% against the greenback.
In rates, treasuries rose with 30-year yield falling nearly 15bp to week’s low 4.73%; 10-year yields declined 10bp to 4.30% while short-end tenors were little changed, leaving curve spreads dramatically flatter. US session includes 5-year note auction and several Fed speakers. German bonds drop, led by short-term debt, despite downbeat euro-area PMI data. The UK gilt curve flattens as long-end bonds rally following the DMO’s shift in bond sales further away from long maturities, narrowing the 2s30s spread by 12bps. while 2-year yields was little changed, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s curves nearly 10bp flatter on the day. Treasury auction cycle continues with $70 billion 5-year notes sale at 1pm New York time; Tuesday’s 2-year tailed by 0.6bp. WI 5-year yield near 3.955% is about 14.5bp richer than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.5bp. This week’s cycle concludes Thursday with $44 billion 7-year note sale
In commodities, spot gold tumbles $47 to $3,334/oz as haven demand ebbs. Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.6% to $64.70 a barrel. Bitcoin jumps over 3% and above $94,000.
Today’s econ calendar includes April S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and March new home sales (10am). Fed releases latest Beige book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (9am), Musalem (9:30am, 2:35pm), Waller (9:35am) and Hammack (6:30pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +2.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini +2.5%
Russell 2000 mini +2.1%
Stoxx Europe 600 +1.8%
DAX +2.9%, CAC 40 +2.4%
10-year Treasury yield -6 basis points at 4.34%
VIX -2.3 points at 28.31
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.89
euro -0.2% at $1.14
WTI crude +1.8% at $64.8/barrel
Top Overnight News
President Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prompting some relief from investors who had been spooked by the White House’s commentary towards the Fed in recent weeks. WSJ
Trump suggested tariffs on China may be “substantially” cut if a deal is reached. China said the door was “wide open” for talks. BBG
Tesla shares climbed (+6% premkt) premarket despite an earnings miss after Elon Musk said he’ll pull back “significantly” from DOGE in May. BBG
JD Vance said the US has issued a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine on a path forward to a peace deal and that territory concessions are needed.
Fed’s Kugler (voter) said tariff increases are significantly larger than previously expected and economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty will likely be larger than anticipated. Kugler added that Fed policy is well-positioned for macroeconomic changes and she supports holding the policy rate steady as long as upside risks to inflation continue, whilst economic activity and employment remain stable.
Trade war is starting to slam Europe’s economy. The euro-area’s flash composite PMI gauge fell more than expected this month to 50.1, as both the German and French measures missed. The UK gauge also fell more than estimated. BBG
Talks between the U.S., Ukraine and European officials to discuss ending Russia’s war in Ukraine faltered on Wednesday as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio abruptly cancelled his trip to London and negotiations were downgraded. Rubio’s no show prompted a broader meeting of foreign ministers from Ukraine, Britain, France and Germany to be cancelled, although talks continued at a lower level. RTRS
UK government borrowing exceeded official forecasts made just last month. The budget deficit in the full fiscal year through March was £151.9 billion, above the OBR’s £137.3 billion projection. BBG
The US wants the UK to lower levies and other non-tariff barriers on a variety of US goods, including a reduction in its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, the WSJ reported. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will meet Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week. BBG
Tariffs/Trade
“China: Door wide open for trade talks with US”, according to Sky News Arabia
US President Trump said they are doing fine with China and are going to be very nice with China, while he added that they have to make a deal and if they don’t, the US will set a deal. Trump also stated the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will not be anywhere near that level but it won’t be zero.
US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, according to Wall Street Journal citing sources.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks rallied amid tailwinds from the US owing to trade deal hopes and after US President Trump softened his rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell in which he stated he has no intention of firing the Fed chair. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy and tech with the former supported by a rebound in oil prices and after a quarterly production update from Woodside Energy, while gold miners suffered after the precious metal dropped as the risk-on mood sapped haven demand. Nikkei 225 benefitted from initial currency weakness and briefly surged to above the 35,000 level shortly after the open before fading some of its advances. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the Hong Kong benchmark joined in on the broad rally and the mainland was contained despite the encouraging comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent who noted the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate, while President Trump said they are going to be very nice with China and that the tariff on China will not be anywhere near the 145% level.
Top Asian News
Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US cannot say that it wishes to reach an agreement whilst on the other hand maintaining extreme pressure; this is not the correct way to deal with China.
BoJ Financial System Report said Japan’s financial system has been maintaining stability as a whole; Considering that Japanese banks have a certain amount of market risk associated with stockholdings, developments in asset prices warrant attention Since the beginning of April, financial markets at home and abroad have fluctuated significantly. Financial institutions need to be vigilant against materialization of various risks.
China’s Commerce Ministry said China received the EU side’s appeal request on intellectual property rights case and will handle it in accordance with relevant rules, while China will work with other multi-party interim arbitration arrangement participants to firmly uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) are entirely in the green and with clear outperformance in the DAX 40, which benefits from upside in SAP (+9%) after its Q1 results. A slew of EZ PMIs and the latest ECB Wage Tracker had little impact on the complex. Sentiment in Europe has been lifted in continuation of the upside on Wall Street, in the prior session. The strength follows some positive trade related updates, including; a) US Treasury Secretary Bessent expecting the tariff standoff with China to de-escalate, b) US President Trump saying he has no intention to fire Fed Chair Powell. European sectors hold a clear cyclical bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Tech is the clear outperformer, with the industry lifted by post-earning strength in SAP. Optimised Personal Care and Utilities, two defensive sectors, find themselves at the foot of the pile.
Top European News
UBS lowers its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% (prev. forecast 2.9%)
FX
USD is up vs. most peers (ex-Antipodeans) with markets encouraged by two primary inputs. 1) optimism around the trade war following more upbeat comments from US President Trump overnight, reporting yesterday suggesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent sees the current levels of tariff on China as unsustainable and comms from the White House that it is nearing deals with China and India. 2) comments by US President Trump overnight that whilst we wishes for the Fed to lower rates, he is not looking to fire Powell. For today’s docket, focus will be on US PMI data and Fed speak from Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Hammack. DXY sits towards the top end of Tuesday’s 98.01-99.65 range.
EUR is on the backfoot vs. the USD on account of the current trade optimism with the EUR suffering as its viewed as a liquid alternative to the USD. PMI metrics this morning from France, Germany and the Eurozone have all conformed to the same picture of beats on manufacturing, services and composite missed. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1309 before recovering to levels closer to 1.14.
JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD but notably less so than seen during APAC hours where the pair hit a peak at 143.21 overnight as markets reacted to the positivity on the trade front and comments by US President Trump on Fed Chair Powell. On the trade front, it remains the case that Japan is front of the queue at the White House and comms suggest that a trade agreement to stave off large US tariffs is nearing. USD/JPY is currently holding above the top end of Tuesday’s 139.88-141.67 range.
GBP is on the backfoot vs. the USD with losses briefly exacerbated by a soft outturn for UK PMI metrics which saw the services print unexpectedly slip into contractionary territory, dragging the composite reading with it. Elsewhere, on the trade front, reports state that the US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US. Cable delved as low as 1.3235 overnight before recovering to levels just above the 1.33 mark.
Antipodeans are the G10 outperformers vs the Dollar, benefiting from the broader risk tone. AUD/USD is yet to reapproach Tuesday’s YTD peak at 0.6439. If breached, the 200DMA sits at 0.6470. Similar price action for NZD/USD which sits below yesterday’s YTD high at 0.6029.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2116 vs exp. 7.3466 (Prev. 7.1980).
Fixed Income
USTs are bid with markets encouraged by two primary inputs. 1) optimism around the trade war following more upbeat comments from US President Trump overnight, reporting on Tuesday suggesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent sees the current levels of tariff on China as unsustainable and comms from the White House that it is nearing deals with China and India. 2) comments by US President Trump overnight that whilst we wishes for the Fed to lower rates, he is not looking to fire Powell. Focus now turns to US PMI, a slew of Fed speakers and 2yr FRN and 5yr auctions – as a reminder, Tuesday’s 2yr outing was soft. Jun’25 contract has ventured as high as 111.00+ with the next resistance point coming from the 21st April peak at 111.09.
Bunds are diverging from their US peers on account of the more encouraging risk tone and increased positivity on the trade front. From a data perspective, PMI metrics this morning from France, Germany and the Eurozone have all conformed to the same picture of beats on manufacturing, services and composite missed. A couple of ECB speakers are on the docket, with focus also on a 2035 Bund auction. Jun’25 Bunds briefly slipped below Tuesday’s low at 131.46 before stabilising above the 131.50 mark.
Gilts are diverging from European peers following the latest update from the DMO which saw it cut GBP 10.4bln from its planned sales of long-dated Gilts and increase sales of short Gilts by GBP 5.6bln. Upside was briefly extended following a soft outturn for UK PMI metrics which saw the services print unexpectedly slip into contractionary territory, dragging the composite reading with it. Jun’25 Gilts have been as high as 92.85 with little in the way of resistance until 93.00. From a yield perspective, the 10yr has bottomed out at 4.515%, failing to test 4.50% to the downside.
UK DMO revises its 2024/25 Gilt remit to GBP 299.1bln (prev. 299.2bln); cuts GBP 10.4bln from planned sales of long-dated Gilts, increases sales of short gilts by 5.6bln; increases unallocated portion of Gilt issuance remit by GBP 4.7bln Increases net T-bill issuance to GBP +10bln (prev. +5bln).
Commodities
Firmer trade across the crude complex with optimism was facilitated by the more sanguine language from the US regarding China, whilst US President Trump also dialled down his tone regarding the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, which, in turn, boosted risk sentiment. WTI currently resides in a USD 63.76-64.84/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 67.68-68.63/bbl parameter.
Mixed trade across precious metals, with spot silver outperforming following yesterday’s underperformance. Investors are unwinding some risk premium from gold following the more sanguine language from the US regarding China, whilst US President Trump also dialled down his tone regarding the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, in turn boosting risk sentiment. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,291.73-3,386.77/oz range.
Firmer trade across base metals amid the constructive risk tone, although gains overnight were limited by the unambitious performance in Chinese equities. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,380.60-9,483.73/t range.
IEA Executive Director Birol said oil prices may see further downward pressure, via Bloomberg TV; expects oil demand to slow down.
Shanghai Futures Exchange to adjust the transaction fees for Gold’s June future contract.
Azerbaijan said average oil price seen at USD 70bbl in 2025 (prev. forecast USD 77bbl).
Norway’s Prelim March oil production 1.757mln BPD (prev. 1.723mln BPD); Gas production 10.9bcm (prev. 9.9bcm).
Iran set May Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.65/bbl.
Peru’s Antamina copper mine reported the death of an operations manager in an incident at the mining camp, while Antamina launched a total shutdown for security as it investigates the accident.
Corporation National del Cobre de Chile market intelligence and strategy specialist Eric Medel said the upside potential of copper has been reduced and copper prices are likely to remain bearish in the short term amid trade war risks.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli army said it monitored the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israeli territory and air defence systems were activated, according to Sky News Arabia.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the new US energy sanctions contradict Washington’s claims of dialogue with Tehran.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
UK government said Ukraine peace talks with international foreign ministers have been postponed, via AFP.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said the Chinese ambassador was summoned and told of ‘serious concern’ over Chinese involvement on Russia’s side in the war.
US President Trump’s “final offer” for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation, according to Axios. It was also reported that the US proposed recognising Crimea as Russian as peace talks ramp up and proposals include eventually lifting sanctions against Russia under a future accord, according to WaPo.
UK Foreign Secretary Lammy said the UK is working with the US, Ukraine and Europe for peace and to put an end to Russian President Putin’s illegal invasion, while he added that talks continue at a pace and officials will meet in London today.
Russian President Putin reportedly offered to halt the invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Trump, according to FT.
Russia launched a large drone attack on east, south and central Ukraine, which damaged civilian infrastructure, according to regional officials.
US Event Calendar
7:00 am: Apr 18 MBA Mortgage Applications -12.7%, prior -8.5%
9:45 am: Apr P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49, prior 50.2
9:45 am: Apr P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 52.6, prior 54.4
9:45 am: Apr P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 52, prior 53.5
10:00 am: Mar New Home Sales, est. 685k, prior 676k
10:00 am: Mar New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.33%, prior 1.8%
It was my first day back yesterday after a 2 week break that in some ways was a one week break after Liberation Day impinged on much of the first week. The highlight was speaking on a conference call whilst on a chairlift. We had a good week and a bit on the slopes in glorious sunshine though, followed by a few days at home where I won a big golf competition (although not quite as big as Rory McIlroy’s which I loved), and I caddied for my twins in a national under 8 tournament. My identical twins have totally different golf swings which is strange. Talking of identical twins, the most remarkable story yesterday was a global viral video of two Australian female twins reliving their horrific carjacking ordeal. If you haven’t seen it search “in sync twins” online and be prepared to be dazzled. My identical twins don’t stop fighting long enough to be able to do what these twins can do.
Markets have started to sync up much more positively over the last 24 hours after Easter Monday’s fraught US session (S&P 500 -2.36%) when fears of Powell being replaced by Trump dominated. Yesterday was already seeing most of those losses erased before markets powered past them just after Europe went home as Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested at a private event that the stand-off with China was unsustainable and that he expects de-escalation. The S&P 500 closed +2.51% higher with the strongest performance since the 90-day tariff extension was announced on April 9th. Elsewhere the Dollar index (+0.65%), US HY (-15bps) and 30yr USTs (-2.5bps) also rallied.
Nevertheless, markets remain skittish from day to day, and with the VIX (-3.25pts) still above 30 (30.57 close) we’re certainly not out of the woods. But for now, the mood has turned more positive, also helped by other constructive headlines around trade talks yesterday, for instance Politico reporting that the US is nearing framework agreements with Japan and India. Gold did take a rare pause for breath after hitting a fresh record high earlier in the day to close -1.27% at $3,381/oz. But note it’s up +9.25% since Liberation Day and +28.81% YTD.
The headlines kept coming after the US close though. Firstly, Tesla’s Q1 results saw sizeable misses on both revenue ($19.34bn vs $21.37bn expected) and operating income ($399m vs $1.13bn exp.), with the company saying it would “revisit” the 2025 revenue guidance in its Q2 update. Nonetheless, the company’s shares gained around +5% in after-hours trading as CEO Elon Musk touted the prospects for the company’s autonomous vehicle and robot businesses and said that he would “significantly” pull back from his government work and devote “far more of my time to Tesla” starting next month. The stock had risen +4.60% in yesterday’s regular session, though this still left it -41.07% YTD.
An even bigger story for markets after the close was Trump’s comments that he has “no intention of firing” Fed Chair Powell, which has helped the rally continue. Equity futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading +1.43% and +1.65% higher as I type. The 10yr Treasury yield is -5.3bps lower at 4.35% after a modest -0.9bp move on Tuesday, while the dollar index is another +0.40% higher. The Hang Seng (+2.40%) is leading gains in Asia, stretching its gains to a third consecutive session with the Nikkei (+2.04%), the KOSPI (+1.56%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.48%) also among the top performers. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese stocks are far more muted with the CSI (+0.24%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.05%) only just above flat.
This morning we’ve also started to get some of the April flash PMIs from around the world. These will be intensely watched, as they are one of the first indicators we have for how the global economy has reacted to the tariff announcements at the start of the month. Ahead of the European PMIs this morning, yesterday saw a concerning signal from the euro area flash consumer confidence print, which posted its largest monthly decline since the 2022 energy shock, falling to its lowest level since November 2023.
Overnight Japan’s factory activity shrank for the tenth consecutive month in April, coming in at 48.5, a touch above the 48.4 reading in March as new orders declined at the steepest rate in over a year amid US tariff concerns. Conversely, Japan’s service sector experienced a robust rebound, with the au Jibun Bank services PMI climbing to 52.2. Meanwhile, the overall composite PMI expanded to 51.1 in April from 48.9 in March, after its first decline in five months in the previous month.
Elsewhere, Australia’s private sector’s business activity slightly slowed as the flash services PMI dropped to 51.4 in April from a reading of 51.6 in March. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.7 in April, compared to 52.1 in March. The composite PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.4.
Back to markets yesterday and the US saw a very broad-based advance, with every S&P 500 industry group rising on the day, along with 494 companies. Indeed, that matched the number of gainers that we saw in the S&P’s +9.52% surge on April 9, making it the joint broadest advance in the last two years on this metric. The move was also helped by the Magnificent 7 (+3.02%), which managed to snap a run of 5 consecutive daily declines, with all of the Mag-7 advancing by at least 2%.
US Treasuries were another asset that unwound the previous day’s move, with a notable curve flattening as investors grew a bit more optimistic on the US outlook and took out some of the risk premium they’d been assigning to long-end Treasuries over recent days. The 30yr yield (-2.5bps) fell back to 4.88%, moving off from its 3-month high on Monday, with the 30yr real yield down by a larger -4.8bps to 2.63%. By contrast, the 2yr yield (+5.5bps) moved up to 3.82% following the risk-on tone as well as a soft 2yr auction.
Back in Europe, the performance was much more muted given markets were closed on Monday, so we didn’t see the big rebound that took place in the US but we didn’t see it respond to the fall on Monday either. Nevertheless, it was still a decent session, with the STOXX 600 (+0.25%) posting a modest gain, alongside a larger advance for the DAX (+0.41%), the CAC 40 (+0.56%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.64%). Sovereign bonds also rallied, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.7bps), OATs (-2.7bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all falling back. French OATs had earlier spiked by a couple of basis points following a Bloomberg report that President Macron had consulted his inner circle about whether to hold snap elections as soon as the autumn. That meant investors got a fresh reminder of French political risk, but the reaction unwound by the close and the current spread to bunds (77bps) is still some way beneath its recent peak of 88bps in early December, shortly before PM Michel Barnier was defeated in a no confidence vote.
In other news, yesterday saw the IMF slash their global growth forecasts relative to January, with widespread downgrades after the US tariff announcements. The global forecast for 2025 was cut half a point to 2.8%, and next year’s was also reduced by three-tenths to 3.0%. Those negative revisions happened across every region, although the US saw a particularly sharp downgrade of nine-tenths to 1.8%. Otherwise, Mexico saw an even larger 1.7pp downgrade, and is now projected to have a to -0.3% contraction. Europe wasn’t affected quite as much, although Germany was downgraded three-tenths this year to show zero growth, following on from two annual contractions in 2023 and 2024.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the flash PMIs for April from the US and Europe. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller and Hammack, the ECB’s Knot, Villeroy and Lane, and the BoE’s Pill and Breeden. Finally, today’s earnings releases include IBM, AT&T and Boeing.
2b) European opening report
Positive risk tone with stocks in the green, TSLA +6.5% after CEO Musk signals a step back from DOGE – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 06:08 AM
US President Trump said the Fed should lower interest rates and would like the Fed chair to be early or on time, adds no intention of firing the Fed chair and wants Powell to be more active on rates.
European bourses move higher as US Treasury Secretary Bessent and the latest Trump comments on Powell boost sentiment; TSLA +6.3% in pre-market trade after Musk signals stepping back from DOGE following dismal earnings.
USD mixed vs. peers with Antipodeans leading given the positive risk tone.
US and German paper diverges on account of trade updates and Trump comments on Powell.
Industrial commodities higher on optimism, spot gold unwinds risk premium.
Looking ahead, highlights include US PMIs, IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting, Speakers including BoE’s Bailey & Breeden, ECB’s Lane & Cipollone, Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem & Hammack, RBA’s Bullock, Supply from the US.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
TRADE
TARIFFS/TRADE
“China: Door wide open for trade talks with US”, according to Sky News Arabia
US President Trump said they are doing fine with China and are going to be very nice with China, while he added that they have to make a deal and if they don’t, the US will set a deal. Trump also stated the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will not be anywhere near that level but it won’t be zero.
US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, according to Wall Street Journal citing sources.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) are entirely in the green and with clear outperformance in the DAX 40, which benefits from upside in SAP (+9%) after its Q1 results. A slew of EZ PMIs and the latest ECB Wage Tracker had little impact on the complex.
Sentiment in Europe has been lifted in continuation of the upside on Wall Street, in the prior session. The strength follows some positive trade related updates, including; a) US Treasury Secretary Bessent expecting the tariff standoff with China to de-escalate, b) US President Trump saying he has no intention to fire Fed Chair Powell.
European sectors hold a clear cyclical bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Tech is the clear outperformer, with the industry lifted by post-earning strength in SAP. Optimised Personal Care and Utilities, two defensive sectors, find themselves at the foot of the pile.
US equity futures (ES +2.2% NQ +2.5% RTY +2.2%) are entirely in the green today, with modest outperformance in the NQ as the risk-tone improves and after Tesla gains post-earnings; currently higher by around 6.3% in pre-market trade.
USD is up vs. most peers (ex-Antipodeans) with markets encouraged by two primary inputs. 1) optimism around the trade war following more upbeat comments from US President Trump overnight, reporting yesterday suggesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent sees the current levels of tariff on China as unsustainable and comms from the White House that it is nearing deals with China and India. 2) comments by US President Trump overnight that whilst we wishes for the Fed to lower rates, he is not looking to fire Powell. For today’s docket, focus will be on US PMI data and Fed speak from Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Hammack. DXY sits towards the top end of Tuesday’s 98.01-99.65 range.
EUR is on the backfoot vs. the USD on account of the current trade optimism with the EUR suffering as its viewed as a liquid alternative to the USD. PMI metrics this morning from France, Germany and the Eurozone have all conformed to the same picture of beats on manufacturing, services and composite missed. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1309 before recovering to levels closer to 1.14.
JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD but notably less so than seen during APAC hours where the pair hit a peak at 143.21 overnight as markets reacted to the positivity on the trade front and comments by US President Trump on Fed Chair Powell. On the trade front, it remains the case that Japan is front of the queue at the White House and comms suggest that a trade agreement to stave off large US tariffs is nearing. USD/JPY is currently holding above the top end of Tuesday’s 139.88-141.67 range.
GBP is on the backfoot vs. the USD with losses briefly exacerbated by a soft outturn for UK PMI metrics which saw the services print unexpectedly slip into contractionary territory, dragging the composite reading with it. Elsewhere, on the trade front, reports state that the US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US. Cable delved as low as 1.3235 overnight before recovering to levels just above the 1.33 mark.
Antipodeans are the G10 outperformers vs the Dollar, benefiting from the broader risk tone. AUD/USD is yet to reapproach Tuesday’s YTD peak at 0.6439. If breached, the 200DMA sits at 0.6470. Similar price action for NZD/USD which sits below yesterday’s YTD high at 0.6029.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2116 vs exp. 7.3466 (Prev. 7.1980).
USTs are bid with markets encouraged by two primary inputs. 1) optimism around the trade war following more upbeat comments from US President Trump overnight, reporting on Tuesday suggesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent sees the current levels of tariff on China as unsustainable and comms from the White House that it is nearing deals with China and India. 2) comments by US President Trump overnight that whilst we wishes for the Fed to lower rates, he is not looking to fire Powell. Focus now turns to US PMI, a slew of Fed speakers and 2yr FRN and 5yr auctions – as a reminder, Tuesday’s 2yr outing was soft. Jun’25 contract has ventured as high as 111.00+ with the next resistance point coming from the 21st April peak at 111.09.
Bunds are diverging from their US peers on account of the more encouraging risk tone and increased positivity on the trade front. From a data perspective, PMI metrics this morning from France, Germany and the Eurozone have all conformed to the same picture of beats on manufacturing, services and composite missed. A couple of ECB speakers are on the docket, with focus also on a 2035 Bund auction. Jun’25 Bunds briefly slipped below Tuesday’s low at 131.46 before stabilising above the 131.50 mark.
Gilts are diverging from European peers following the latest update from the DMO which saw it cut GBP 10.4bln from its planned sales of long-dated Gilts and increase sales of short Gilts by GBP 5.6bln. Upside was briefly extended following a soft outturn for UK PMI metrics which saw the services print unexpectedly slip into contractionary territory, dragging the composite reading with it. Jun’25 Gilts have been as high as 92.85 with little in the way of resistance until 93.00. From a yield perspective, the 10yr has bottomed out at 4.515%, failing to test 4.50% to the downside.
UK DMO revises its 2024/25 Gilt remit to GBP 299.1bln (prev. 299.2bln); cuts GBP 10.4bln from planned sales of long-dated Gilts, increases sales of short gilts by 5.6bln; increases unallocated portion of Gilt issuance remit by GBP 4.7bln Increases net T-bill issuance to GBP +10bln (prev. +5bln).
Firmer trade across the crude complex with optimism was facilitated by the more sanguine language from the US regarding China, whilst US President Trump also dialled down his tone regarding the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, which, in turn, boosted risk sentiment. WTI currently resides in a USD 63.76-64.84/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 67.68-68.63/bbl parameter.
Mixed trade across precious metals, with spot silver outperforming following yesterday’s underperformance. Investors are unwinding some risk premium from gold following the more sanguine language from the US regarding China, whilst US President Trump also dialled down his tone regarding the dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, in turn boosting risk sentiment. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,291.73-3,386.77/oz range.
Firmer trade across base metals amid the constructive risk tone, although gains overnight were limited by the unambitious performance in Chinese equities. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,380.60-9,483.73/t range.
IEA Executive Director Birol said oil prices may see further downward pressure, via Bloomberg TV; expects oil demand to slow down.
Shanghai Futures Exchange to adjust the transaction fees for Gold’s June future contract.
Azerbaijan said average oil price seen at USD 70bbl in 2025 (prev. forecast USD 77bbl).
Norway’s Prelim March oil production 1.757mln BPD (prev. 1.723mln BPD); Gas production 10.9bcm (prev. 9.9bcm).
Iran set May Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.65/bbl.
Peru’s Antamina copper mine reported the death of an operations manager in an incident at the mining camp, while Antamina launched a total shutdown for security as it investigates the accident.
Corporation National del Cobre de Chile market intelligence and strategy specialist Eric Medel said the upside potential of copper has been reduced and copper prices are likely to remain bearish in the short term amid trade war risks.
UBS lowers its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% (prev. forecast 2.9%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump said the Fed should lower interest rates and would like the Fed chair to be early or on time, while he has no intention of firing the Fed chair and wants Powell to be more active on rates.
Fed’s Kugler (voter) said tariff increases are significantly larger than previously expected and economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty will likely be larger than anticipated. Kugler added that Fed policy is well-positioned for macroeconomic changes and she supports holding the policy rate steady as long as upside risks to inflation continue, whilst economic activity and employment remain stable.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli army said it monitored the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israeli territory and air defence systems were activated, according to Sky News Arabia.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the new US energy sanctions contradict Washington’s claims of dialogue with Tehran.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
UK government said Ukraine peace talks with international foreign ministers have been postponed, via AFP.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said the Chinese ambassador was summoned and told of ‘serious concern’ over Chinese involvement on Russia’s side in the war.
US President Trump’s “final offer” for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation, according to Axios. It was also reported that the US proposed recognising Crimea as Russian as peace talks ramp up and proposals include eventually lifting sanctions against Russia under a future accord, according to WaPo.
UK Foreign Secretary Lammy said the UK is working with the US, Ukraine and Europe for peace and to put an end to Russian President Putin’s illegal invasion, while he added that talks continue at a pace and officials will meet in London today.
Russian President Putin reportedly offered to halt the invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Trump, according to FT.
Russia launched a large drone attack on east, south and central Ukraine, which damaged civilian infrastructure, according to regional officials.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a strong footing and now sits comfortably above USD 93.5k; Ethereum also extends gains and looks to test USD 1.8k to the upside.
US President Trump said crypto needs regulatory certainty and newly appointed SEC chair Atkins is perfect for certainty in regulating cryptocurrency. It was also reported that US SEC Chairman Atkins said it is time for SEC to end waywardness and keep politics out of securities laws, while he added there are clear rules of the road and the top priority is to have a firm foundation for digital assets.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks rallied amid tailwinds from the US owing to trade deal hopes and after US President Trump softened his rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell in which he stated he has no intention of firing the Fed chair.
ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy and tech with the former supported by a rebound in oil prices and after a quarterly production update from Woodside Energy, while gold miners suffered after the precious metal dropped as the risk-on mood sapped haven demand.
Nikkei 225 benefitted from initial currency weakness and briefly surged to above the 35,000 level shortly after the open before fading some of its advances.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the Hong Kong benchmark joined in on the broad rally and the mainland was contained despite the encouraging comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent who noted the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate, while President Trump said they are going to be very nice with China and that the tariff on China will not be anywhere near the 145% level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US cannot say that it wishes to reach an agreement whilst on the other hand maintaining extreme pressure; this is not the correct way to deal with China.
BoJ Financial System Report said Japan’s financial system has been maintaining stability as a whole; Considering that Japanese banks have a certain amount of market risk associated with stockholdings, developments in asset prices warrant attention Since the beginning of April, financial markets at home and abroad have fluctuated significantly. Financial institutions need to be vigilant against materialization of various risks.
China’s Commerce Ministry said China received the EU side’s appeal request on intellectual property rights case and will handle it in accordance with relevant rules, while China will work with other multi-party interim arbitration arrangement participants to firmly uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system.
DATA RECAP
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Apr) 48.5 (Prev. 48.4)
Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (Apr) 52.2 (Prev. 50)
Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (Apr) 51.1 (Prev. 48.9)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Apr) 51.7 (Prev. 52.1)
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Apr) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Apr) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
2c) Asian opening report
Risk appetite gains after Trump softens stance on Powell & among a number of trade updates – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 01:22 AM
US Treasury Secretary Bessent told a closed-door investor summit that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate.
US President Trump said the Fed should lower interest rates; has no intention of firing the Fed chair and wants Powell to be more active on rates.
APAC stocks rallied amid tailwinds from the US owing to trade deal hopes and after US President Trump softened his rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell.
European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 futures up 1.7% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
USD has pulled back a touch from yesterday’s advances, EUR/USD is back below 1.14, USD/JPY has pulled back from 143+ levels.
US President Trump’s “final offer” for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation, according to Axios.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US PMIs, BoE’s Bailey & Breeden, ECB’s Lane & Cipollone, Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem & Hammack, RBA’s Bullock, Supply from Germany & US.
Earnings from Akzo Nobel, BE Semiconductor, Volvo AB, Boliden, Danone, Kering, EssilorLuxottica, Reckitt, NatWest, Saipem, Boeing, AT&T, Vertiv, Phillip Morris, GE Vernova, IBM, Chipotle, Texas Instruments.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks rallied and clawed back Monday’s heavy losses with sentiment buoyed by trade-related optimism after Bloomberg reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent told a closed-door investor summit that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and he expects the situation to de-escalate although FBN’s Gasparino later posted on X that he’s been told by a person close to Bessent that the reports on his remarks about a trade deal with China being imminent overstate what he said, while Politico reported that the White House is ‘close’ on Japan and India trade agreements but are likely to leave many of the details to be hashed out at a later date.
SPX +2.51% at 5,288, NDX +2.63% at 18,276, DJI +2.66% at 39,187, RUT +2.71% at 1,890.
US President Trump said they are doing fine with China and are going to be very nice with China, while he added that they have to make a deal and if they don’t, the US will set a deal. Trump also stated the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will not be anywhere near that level but it won’t be zero.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate, while Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan in Washington cited by Bloomberg. Furthermore, Bessent said China negotiations will be a ‘slog’ and he described the current bilateral trade situation as an embargo, according to Reuters citing a person at the JPMorgan session.
FBN’s Gasparino posted on X that “he’s been told by a person close to US Treasury Secretary Bessent that the reports on his remarks about a trade deal with China being imminent overstate what he said, while he meant there is room for talks and de-escalation but much also depends on China’s willingness to compromise on trade as well.
White House is reportedly ‘close’ on Japan and India trade agreements to stave off massive US tariffs, although they are likely to leave many of the details to be hashed out at a later date and it may take months to hammer out the final deals as these things are complicated, according to Politico citing sources. It was also reported that the White House Press Secretary said they now have 18 proposals from countries on trade and the trade team is meeting with 34 countries this week.
US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, according to Wall Street Journal citing sources.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump said the Fed should lower interest rates and would like the Fed chair to be early or on time, while he has no intention of firing the Fed chair and wants Powell to be more active on rates.
Fed’s Kugler (voter) said tariff increases are significantly larger than previously expected and economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty will likely be larger than anticipated. Kugler added that Fed policy is well-positioned for macroeconomic changes and she supports holding the policy rate steady as long as upside risks to inflation continue, whilst economic activity and employment remain stable.
Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said independent monetary policy leads to better economic outcomes and is foundational, while he added that Fed policymakers are making the best call they can, based on data and it is too soon to judge the path of interest rates.
Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said inflation expectations may have loosened and that firms are defensive, delaying and deferring investments, while he added there are a lot of reasons to be worried about consumer spending.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks rallied amid tailwinds from the US owing to trade deal hopes and after US President Trump softened his rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell in which he stated he has no intention of firing the Fed chair.
ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy and tech with the former supported by a rebound in oil prices and after a quarterly production update from Woodside Energy, while gold miners suffered after the precious metal dropped as the risk-on mood sapped haven demand.
Nikkei 225 benefitted from initial currency weakness and briefly surged to above the 35,000 level shortly after the open before fading some of its advances.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the Hong Kong benchmark joined in on the broad rally and the mainland was contained despite the encouraging comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent who noted the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate, while President Trump said they are going to be very nice with China and that the tariff on China will not be anywhere near the 145% level.
US equity futures (ES +1.5%, NQ +1.8%) surged at the reopening of futures trading in reaction to President Trump’s softer tone on Fed Chair Powell, while the key earnings report after-hours was from Tesla which disappointed although its shares were boosted (+5.4%) after Elon Musk said he expects time allocation to DOGE to drop significantly in May and he will be devoting more time to Tesla.
European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 futures up 1.7% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY pulled back from yesterday’s peak after steadily advancing amid the trade-related hopes following remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent who said the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate. However, a person close to Bessent said the reports on his remarks about a trade deal with China being imminent, overstated what he said and he meant there is room for talks and de-escalation but much also depends on China’s willingness to compromise on trade as well. Furthermore, President Trump said the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will not be anywhere near that level but it won’t be zero, while the White House said they have 18 proposals from countries on trade, although it was separately reported that despite the US being “close” on agreements with Japan and India, it may take months to reach final deals.
EUR/USD slipped to below the 1.1400 handle amid the prior day’s resurgence of the greenback and with the moves exacerbated after President Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell. Nonetheless, the pair has since recovered from lows despite the lack of drivers and with participants awaiting PMI data.
GBP/USD rebounded from the prior day’s trough and briefly returned to the 1.3300 territory but with further upside capped ahead of UK PMI data and incoming comments from BoE’s Bailey and Breeden.
USD/JPY retreated from a weekly peak after briefly surging to above 143.00 in the aftermath of comments from President Trump who softened his tone on Fed Chair Powell and provided some optimism on US-China trade.
Antipodeans nursed some of the prior day’s losses with the recovery facilitated by the improvement in risk sentiment and encouraging rhetoric from President Trump regarding China.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2116 vs exp. 7.3466 (Prev. 7.1980).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures eked marginal gains amid softer long-end yields stateside and as the more amicable tone from President Trump spurred demand for US asset classes.
Bund futures were contained after slightly pulling back from resistance at the 132.00 level, while participants now await Eurozone PMIs and a EUR 4bln Bund issuance.
10yr JGB futures gapped lower as risk assets surged on trade deal hopes and Trump’s softer Powell rhetoric.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were underpinned by the mostly constructive risk sentiment and after private sector inventory data showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude stockpiles and drawdowns across other products.
US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): US Crude -4.6mln (exp. -0.8mln), Cushing -0.4mln, Distillate -1.6mln (exp. 0.0mln), Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. -1.4mln).
Iran set May Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.65/bbl.
Senior EU official said the EU Commission is looking at legal options to allow companies to break Russian gas contracts without facing penalties and is looking at legal options that could forbid EU companies from signing new Russian gas and LNG contracts.
Spot gold slumped at the reopen as risk assets were boosted following US President Trump’s softer tone regarding Fed Chair Powell, while he also provided some optimism regarding a potential trade deal with China.
Copper futures kept afloat amid the positive risk tone but with gains capped as China lagged.
Peru’s Antamina copper mine reported the death of an operations manager in an incident at the mining camp, while Antamina launched a total shutdown for security as it investigates the accident.
Corporation National del Cobre de Chile market intelligence and strategy specialist Eric Medel said the upside potential of copper has been reduced and copper prices are likely to remain bearish in the short term amid trade war risks.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin took a breather overnight after it recently rallied to back above the USD 93,000 level.
US President Trump said crypto needs regulatory certainty and newly appointed SEC chair Atkins is perfect for certainty in regulating cryptocurrency. It was also reported that US SEC Chairman Atkins said it is time for SEC to end waywardness and keep politics out of securities laws, while he added there are clear rules of the road and the top priority is to have a firm foundation for digital assets.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Commerce Ministry said China received the EU side’s appeal request on intellectual property rights case and will handle it in accordance with relevant rules, while China will work with other multi-party interim arbitration arrangement participants to firmly uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system.
DATA RECAP
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Apr) 48.5 (Prev. 48.4)
Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (Apr) 52.2 (Prev. 50)
Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (Apr) 51.1 (Prev. 48.9)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Apr) 51.7 (Prev. 52.1)
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Apr) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Apr) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli army said it monitored the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israeli territory and air defence systems were activated, according to Sky News Arabia.
Iran Foreign Ministry said expert-level Iran-US talks are to be held on Saturday instead of Wednesday.
Iranian authorities seized two Tanzania-flagged vessels carrying ‘smuggled fuel’ in the Gulf.White House said US President Trump will travel to Saudi, Qatar, and UAE from May 13th-17th.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the Ukrainian delegation has a mandate to discuss a full or partial ceasefire at talks on Wednesday in London and once a ceasefire is in place, Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia in any format. Zelensky added it is impossible to agree on all terms of a peace deal quickly and that Ukraine will not recognise Russian occupation of Crimea De Jure which would be unconstitutional.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said the Chinese ambassador was summoned and told of ‘serious concern’ over Chinese involvement on Russia’s side in the war.
US President Trump’s “final offer” for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation, according to Axios. It was also reported that the US proposed recognising Crimea as Russian as peace talks ramp up and proposals include eventually lifting sanctions against Russia under a future accord, according to WaPo.
UK Foreign Secretary Lammy said the UK is working with the US, Ukraine and Europe for peace and to put an end to Russian President Putin’s illegal invasion, while he added that talks continue at a pace and officials will meet in London today.
Russian President Putin reportedly offered to halt the invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with US President Trump, according to FT.
Russia launched a large drone attack on east, south and central Ukraine, which damaged civilian infrastructure, according to regional officials.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
Wow! it is working for Trump: a propane tanker diverts a Chinese port of call as China is now devoid of ethane, essential in the manufacture of plastics
(zerohedge)
US Propane Tanker Diverts Chinese Port Call In Latest Warning Sign For China’s Plastic Factories
Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025 – 08:30 PM
To begin the week, we highlighted a potential breaking point emerging in the global economy due to the escalating tariff war: Chinese plastics manufacturers—heavily reliant on U.S. petrochemicals—now face production halts as shipments are increasingly being diverted from the world’s second-largest economy.
Bloomberg cites new ship-tracking data showing that a very large gas carrier hauling U.S. propane has diverted from its initial destination in China to a new port of call in Japan.
The data showed that BW Gemini is hauling 46,000 tons of propane from the U.S. The gas tanker left Phillips 66 Freeport LPG Export Terminal in late March and was initially headed for Yantai, China. However, in recent days, while traversing the Pacific Ocean, the port of call was changed to Imari, Japan.
There was no explanation for BW Gemini’s sudden port calling switch from China to Japan, but in recent weeks, Beijing slapped 125% tariffs on all liquefied petroleum gas.
The tanker laden with U.S. propane brings the conversation full circle to our note on Monday (read: here), which warned that the global plastics industry could soon be thrown into turmoil:
Chinese plastics factories that depend on a gas they mainly import from the U.S. are contending with the prospect of widespread shutdowns as the world’s two largest economies bunker down for a prolonged trade war
The note titled “Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates” focused on ethane, a petrochemical feedstock to produce ethylene, one of the most critical building blocks in modern manufacturing.
Ethylene is the foundation for a wide range of downstream products, including:
Ethylene oxide: Used to produce ethylene glycol, the base for antifreeze and polyester
Styrene: For polystyrene plastics (packaging, insulation)
Vinyl chloride (via EDC): Used to make PVC for pipes, window frames, cables
Alpha-olefins: For synthetic lubricants and specialty polymers
Polyethylene is indeed one of the core inputs of the modern plastic economy. However, the deepening trade war is disrupting petrochemical shipments to China. If these disruptions persist over a prolonged period, China could face manufacturing slowdowns, potentially triggering ripple effects across the global economy. The IMF already issued this warning earlier…
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
After Dismal European PMIs, US Services Sector Slumps, Manufacturing Jumps Ahead Of Tariff Deadlines
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 09:53 AM
European flash April PMIs were ugly this morning with the Euro-area-wide headline composite measure -0.8 to 50.1, and with weakness concentrated in French and German services activity.
Euro Area Composite PMI (Apr, Flash): 50.1, consensus 50.2, last 50.9
Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (Apr, Flash): 48.7, consensus 47.4, last 48.6
Euro Area Services PMI (Apr, Flash): 49.7, consensus 50.5, last 51.0
France Composite PMI (Apr, Flash): 47.3, consensus 47.8, last 48.0
Germany Composite PMI (Apr, Flash): 49.7, consensus 50.5, last 51.3.
UK Composite PMI (Apr, Flash): 48.2, consensus 50.4, last 51.5.
The manufacturing sector displayed surprising signs of resilience despite the imposition of US tariffs earlier this month (stock of purchases (+0.5pt to 45.6), quantity of purchases (+1.3pt to 47.4), and stock of finished goods (+1.4pt to 47.8) all improved). The details of the manufacturing print and commentary provided in the press release suggest that activity in the sector was likely supported by front-loading (possibly reflecting strategic shipments during the 90-day pause on the country-specific component of the US reciprocal tariffs) and restocking.
However, there was a clear drop-off in the forward-looking business expectations measures.
The responses for today’s flash PMI reports were collected between the 9th and 22nd of April, implying that the majority of the responses should reflect both the reciprocal tariff announcement and implementation of 10% baseline and critical industry tariffs, as well as the 90-day reciprocal tariff delay on April 9th.
In the US, expectations were for weakness in both Services and Manufacturing surveys, following a slew of dismal ‘soft’ data from Regional Fed surveys.
However, reflecting similar trajectories to Europe, US Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, rising to 50.7 from 50.2 (better than the 49.0 contraction expected) while Services disappointed, dropping from 54.4 to 51.4 (below the 52.6 expected)…
The tariff front-running that was seen in Europe appears to have been echoed in the US Manufacturing sector.
However, just as in Europe, forward-looking expectations for output tumbled… The latest reading was the joint-second lowest since September 2020, surpassed only by October 2022.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The early flash PMI data for April point to a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook. At the same time, price pressures intensified, creating a headache for a central bank which is coming under increasing pressure to shore up a weakening economy just as inflation looks set to rise.
“Output rose in April at its slowest pace since December 2023, indicating that the US economy is growing at a modest annualized rate of just 1.0%. Manufacturing is broadly stagnating as any beneficial effect of tariffs are offset by heightened economic uncertainty, supply chain concerns and falling exports, while the services economy is slowing amid weakened demand growth, notably in terms of exports such as travel and tourism.
“Confidence about business conditions in the year ahead has meanwhile deteriorated sharply, worsening among manufacturers and service providers alike, largely thanks to growing concerns about the impact of recent government policy announcements.
“Tariffs are meanwhile being cited as the key cause of higher prices, though labor costs are also reportedly continuing to rise, causing companies to hike their selling prices at a pace not seen for over a year. In manufacturing, the rate of price increase is the steepest for nearly two-and-a-half years. These higher prices will inevitably feed through to higher consumer inflation, potentially limiting the scope for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at a time when a slowing economy looks in need of a boost.”
Trump will not like the EU hitting these two huge American companies with mega fines
(zerohedge)
EU Hits Apple, Meta With €700 Million Fines For Violating Digital Markets Act
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 07:45 AM
European Union regulators fined Apple €500 million ($570 million) and Meta €200 million ($230 million) for violating the Digital Markets Act (DMA). These are the first non-compliance penalties against Silicon Valley tech under the DMA.
The European Commission announced that Apple breached its anti-steering obligation by restricting app developers from directing users to alternative payment offers outside the App Store. As a result, developers and consumers were denied access to cheaper, non-App Store options. Apple must now remove these restrictions and refrain from engaging in similar practices in the future.
“As part of today’s decision, the Commission has ordered Apple to remove the technical and commercial restrictions on steering and to refrain from perpetuating the non-compliant conduct in the future, which includes adopting conduct with an equivalent object or effect,” the Commission wrote in a statement.
The Commission noted that it has closed the investigation into Apple’s user choice obligations, thanks to proactive engagement by Apple on a compliance resolution.
Meta’s fines totaled €200 million for violating the DMA by forcing a “Consent or Pay” model on Facebook and Instagram users to choose between personalized ads (via data sharing) or a paid ad-free experience.
Here’s more about Meta’s non-DMA compliance:
The Commission found that this model is not compliant with the DMA, as it did not give users the required specific choice to opt for a service that uses less of their personal data but is otherwise equivalent to the ‘personalised ads’ service. Meta’s model also did not allow users to exercise their right to freely consent to the combination of their personal data.
In November 2024, after numerous exchanges with the Commission, Meta introduced another version of the free personalised ads model, offering a new option that allegedly uses less personal data to display advertisements. The Commission is currently assessing this new option and continues its dialogue with Meta, requesting the company to provide evidence of the impact that this new ads model has in practice.
Without prejudice to this ongoing assessment, today’s decision finding non-compliance concerns the time period during which end users in the EU were only offered the binary ‘Consent or Pay’ option between March 2024, when the DMA obligations became legally binding, and November 2024, when Meta’s new ads model was introduced.
The Commission outlined that Apple and Meta have two months to comply with DMA compliance – or be faced with another round of fines.
“Today’s decisions send a strong and clear message. The Digital Markets Act is a crucial instrument to unlock potential, choice and growth by ensuring digital players can operate in contestable and fair markets. It protects European consumers and levels the playing field,” EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera wrote in a statement.
Ribera continued: “Apple and Meta have fallen short of compliance with the DMA by implementing measures that reinforce the dependence of business users and consumers on their platforms.
“As a result, we have taken firm but balanced enforcement action against both companies, based on clear and predictable rules. All companies operating in the EU must follow our laws and respect European values,” she concluded.
Threats of retaliation from the Trump administration loom over these tech investigations by European regulators who think they’re ‘regulators of the world’… Google faces potential fines for business practices relating to its Google Pay app, store, and search engine, which may have violated DMA.
END
GERMANY
AfD Is Now Germany’s Most Popular Party For The First Time Ever As ‘Ban’ Efforts Escalate
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has hit a historic watermark, and is now the most popular party in Germany for the first time ever, reaching 26 percent. The poll, from Forsa, shows the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in second place with 25 percent.
If the vote were held today, the two parties set to enter government, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the CDU, would not have enough votes to enter government. The SPD is at 15 percent, giving the two parties a combined total of 40 percent. The poll showed that support for the Greens dropped a point to 11 percent and the Left Party also dropped a point to 9 percent.
The news comes at a time when the left is racing to vote on a ban on the AfD in the German parliament, the Bundestag, a topic covered in detail by Remix News. However, despite inital reports that the CDU would back such a ban, the picture is becoming muddier.
For one, there are more and more voices in the CDU and its sister party, the CSU, who are calling for “more calm” towards the AfD, including from the influential vice-chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Jens Spahn. Spahn even said that the AfD should be able to lead some of the committee in the Bundestag, which would give the party more say and power. Given that it received the second-most votes during the German election, it should, like all other parties, have access to these committees, but many want to shut it out completely, especially from intelligence committees.
The issue could lead to a major split in the coalition between the CDU and SPD. SPD Bundestag member Ralf Stegner told Welt his party has “absolutely no sense of humor” on any attempt to go easy on the AfD.
🇩🇪🚨 "Germany needs the AfD"
Young women are increasingly promoting the AfD party on TikTok.
Many of them feel increasingly unsafe in Germany, and they believe AfD is the answer. pic.twitter.com/iXemPYBV0c
He said any kind of rapprochement would represent a “maximum stress test” for the new coalition govenrment.
“Anyone who wants to form a coalition with the SPD cannot join forces with right-wing radicals. And joining forces also means voting for enemies of democracy,” he said. The MP, known for his left-wing views, instead is calling for a ban on the AfD if the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) classifies the party as “confirmed right-wing extremist.”
“If the Office for the Protection of the Constitution upgrades its classification, then we also have a duty to work towards initiating a ban on the party,” Stegner said.
🇩🇪‼️ Young German woman explains why voters are turning to the AfD
"I’m afraid to travel by train, afraid to go into town, afraid to do anything in public. And they talk about people being afraid of the AfD. The AfD has done nothing to anyone, unlike other people." pic.twitter.com/hYlQVKXb1Q
However, Welt reports that CDU is rejecting an “automoatic” approach to banning the AfD.
The CDU/CSU, in turn, rejects this automatic approach: “To derive an obligation to initiate ban proceedings from an upgrade by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution clearly ignores the legal situation,” said Günter Krings, legal policy spokesman for the CDU-CSU parliamentary group. He instead wants to “fight the AfD politically by exposing its extremism…The best recipe against the AfD is concrete successes by the new federal government, especially in migration, security, and the economy.”
🇩🇪 AfD's Alice Weidel backs mass deportations in party conference speech.
"I have to tell you quite honestly that if this must be called remigration, then let it be called remigration." pic.twitter.com/lyB8aOBCv6
He also claims that initiating proceedings “would only make the AfD rub its hands together and use it as free support for its victim myth.”
Meanwhile, the AfD is slamming calls for a ban. “The renewed call for an AfD ban is completely unfounded and would be completely hopeless,” said Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the AfD. “Instead of engaging in absurd and anti-democratic ban fantasies, Mr. Stegner should be thinking about why his party has been losing voters in droves for years.”
Sahra Wagenknecht, who is the leader of the left-wing BSW, told Welt: “First gigantic electoral fraud, then the ban debate: could it get any more stupid? The fact that such proposals are now coming from the self-proclaimed ‘democratic center,’ of all places, is disgraceful and will further strengthen the AfD.”
She went so far as to say it was a purely autocratic move.
“No question, in an autocracy, the ‘problem’ would be solved in exactly the same way.”
Even in the SPD, there is debate about a ban.
SPD Minister President of Saxony Stephan Weil (SPD) warned a ban could also fail, which would be “a feast for the AfD.”
The latest socio-political and security developments suggest that it relishes being a frontline state…
Estonia catapulted back into international news after it recently seized an alleged vessel from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, to which Russia had a restrained reaction for the pragmatic reasons explained here, but it’s also been stirring up trouble with Russia in other ways too. The aforementioned provocation coincides with the passing of a law allowing Estonia to sink foreign vessels that it deems to pose a national security threat. It’s possible that this could be the next planned regional escalation.
On the security front, Estonia also reportedly wants to deploy some of its troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission jointly led by France and the UK. Moreover, there’s always the chance that the UK decides to transform its rotational ~1,000-troop military presence in Estonia into a permanent fixture. That would make it the third NATO member to do so in the region after the US (in Poland and Romania) and Germany (in Lithuania). This could be sold as a hedge against the US withdrawing some of its troops.
Estonia’s internal situation is also becoming increasingly tense as a result of three interconnected developments.
The first concerns the latest law denying local voting rights to foreigners, which includes some of those 22.5% of Russians living in the country who don’t meet the post-independence criteria for citizenship and are thus legally classified as “stateless persons”.
For background, Estonia considers them to be the descendants of “Soviet occupiers”, which is the basis upon which it’s restricted their rights.
Expanding upon the last point about historical perception, Estonia is also ramping up its long-running campaign of dismantling Soviet-era World War II monuments, which the state regards symbols of Soviet occupation.
Russia, however, believes that this move amounts to historical revisionism. In connection with that, readers should be aware that Russia has consistently accused Estonia of glorifying Nazi collaborators, with the most blatant example thereof being the annual marches in honor of the SS.
As if these moves weren’t provocative enough, Estonia just passed a law requiring the Estonian Chrisitan Orthodox Church to sever its canonical ties with the Russian Orthodox Church.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharov reacted to this by denouncing “the systematic destruction of fundamental human rights and freedoms continues under the guise of far-fetched, so-called democratic slogans. Once again, a blow has been dealt to one of the most sensitive areas – religious rights and freedoms.”
Estonia is able to threaten Russia’s direct and indirect interests, correspondingly relating to its national security and the rights of its co-ethnics in that country, with impunity due to its NATO membership. The only realistic scenarios in which Russia might countenance using military force are if Estonia participates in blockading the Gulf of Finland, uses force against Russian vessels (whether a warship or Russian-flagged civilian ship), or attacks across the “Baltic Defence Line” that it’s building along their border.
So long as Estonia keeps its provocations below these thresholds, then the risk of a major war breaking out should remain low, but bilateral tensions will worsen as will those between Russia and the European members of NATO. That could turn Estonia into Europe’s next trouble spot, thus accelerating the militarization of the Baltic Sea and the nearby Arctic region, likely including the Russian-Finnish border. Russian-EU tensions would then persist indefinitely even if Russian-US relations improve in the future.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Israel Deploying Unmanned Bulldozers In Gaza For Large-Scale Warfare
The Israeli military has increasingly opted to deploy an unmanned version of Caterpillar’s D9 bulldozers to a number of battlefields. The remotely operated systems allows the IDF to flatten areas without risking additional troops.
According to The Times of Israel, Tel Aviv has deployed the unmanned D9 – or RobDozer – to Gaza and Lebanon since October 7, 2023, and Israeli officials say the IDF is ramping up its use of the system. One source told AFP Israel has used “robotic tools for over a decade, but in very small numbers. Now it is being used in large-scale warfare.”
The RobDozer was developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which claims the platform is the “ultimate combat bulldozer.” IAI’s website explains that “The RobDozer’s integration into military engineering units significantly boosts their capability to rapidly alter landscapes to favor defensive or offensive operations.”
While the RobDozer can be remotely controlled, IAI claims it can even operate autonomously. As the Jerusalem Post reported last month, IAI “says it can operate on several levels of autonomous independence, ‘allowing it to dig trenches in the field, clear a route in difficult or otherwise impassable areas, and move large or suspicious obstacles.'”
While the company stresses that the platform ensures the safety of Israeli soldiers who no longer have to drive combat bulldozers in dangerous situations, it does not mention if the RobDozer can identify and avoid civilians during autonomous operation.
The Israeli state arms maker is also in the process of developing an unmanned M113 armored personnel carrier.
Israeli military D9 armored bulldozers are plowing through the Nur Shams Camp in the Northern West Bank. pic.twitter.com/qCaaaAx4wo
Combat bulldozers have played a major role in Israel’s military operations in Gaza, where large swaths of territory have been flattened by Israeli bombs. As the rubble is littered with unexploded munitions and potential Hamas-planted explosives, the IDF has used a large number of D9s to clear regions that were once cities in Gaza.
Tel Aviv has declared a buffer zone along the borders of Gaza, and Defense Minister Israel Katz recently expanded that zone to include the entire southern city of Rafah. Israeli forces have destroyed most structures in those areas and kill any Palestinians who try to approach.
Katz said that “Gaza will become smaller and more isolated, and more and more of its residents will be forced to evacuate from the fighting zones.”
Additionally, the IDF has built corridors that bisect the Strip, flattening the infrastructure in those areas as well. Israel now controls over 50% of Gaza.
ISRAEL HAMAS
Sons of dogs, release the hostages,’ Mahmoud Abbas tells Hamas
He also stressed that “Hamas must end its control of the Gaza Strip and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority.”
“Sons of dogs, hand over the hostages,” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told Hamas in a televised speech at the PA’s Central Council on Wednesday.
He added that the “war must end,” citing that hundreds are dying every day because “[Hamas] doesn’t want to hand over the American hostages. Sons of dogs – hand over the hostages and end the matter.”
Abbas said the goals are “Returning the hostages; lifting the Israeli blockade of Gaza; stopping the displacement of our people in coordination with Arab countries; defending the ‘Palestinian cause.'”
He also stressed that “Hamas must end its control of the Gaza Strip and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority.”
Palestinians mourn medics, who came under Israeli fire while on a rescue mission, after their bodies were recovered, according to the Red Crescent, at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip March 31, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled/File Photo)
Abbas also called on Hamas to turn itself into a political party, saying “talk to us instead of the Americans.”
‘New Nakba’
He also condemned Israel’s actions during the war, saying, “The coup carried out by Hamas in 2007 gave Israel a pretext to destroy the Gaza Strip. 2,165 families were completely wiped out, and 6,664 were partially wiped out. More than two-thirds of the homes were destroyed in the war.”
“We are facing serious dangers that could lead to a ‘new Nakba,'” he added.
“Our vision for achieving peace in the Middle East is based on ending the Israeli occupation and establishing a state.”
ISRAEL HAMAS
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
SYRIA
HOUTHIS
Missile fired from Yemen triggers sirens in Haifa and other parts of northern Israel
IDF says projectile ‘probably intercepted successfully’; no reports of direct injuries from attack *
The military says the ballistic missile fired from Yemen toward northern Israel was “probably intercepted successfully” by air defenses.
The Magen David Adom ambulance service reports no direct injuries from the attack or impacts from debris, but says paramedics are treating a number of people who were injured while rushing for shelter.Share
The IDF says that a missile fired from Yemen set off warning sirens in Haifa and other parts of northern Israel.
Air defense systems have been activated to intercept the missile, the military adds.
IRAN
Iran Offers More Nuclear Transparency In Exchange For Lifting Sancti
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Iran says that ready to make its nuclear program more transparent at a moment it is preparing to send representatives for a third round of talks with the United States, set for April 26.
Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tuesday that Tehran in return for this greater transparency wants US-led sanctions lifted.
“We will try to create more transparency and more trust [in the nuclear program] in exchange for lifting sanctions. In other words, in exchange for lifting sanctions — I emphasize, in a way that is effective and has a [positive] effect on people’s lives — Iran is ready to create more trust in its nuclear program and more transparency,” Mohajerani told reporters.
Mohajerani made clear that Tehran is ready to reach “good agreement” with the United States on nuclear issue. “We are confident that reaching a good agreement in a short time while respecting our national interests is realistic,” she said, calling the prior two rounds “good” amid a “constructive” atmosphere.
The day prior to these optimistic remarks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned that Israel was seeking to “undermine” the ongoing nuclear talks with Washington, amid reports in Israeli media that leaders are mulling a ‘limited’ attack on the Islamic Republic.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that a “kind of coalition is forming… to undermine and disrupt the diplomatic process” and that the “Zionist regime is at the center of this effort.”
Alluding to reports from last week of an internal US administration split on Iran, Baghaei further warned that hawks in the US are also involved in the effort to sabotage the talks. “Alongside it are a series of warmongering currents in the United States and figures from different factions,” he said.
President Trump has reportedly told the Israelis that no, he will not support preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and that he prefers to negotiate a solution. Below is what the US side said after last weekend’s second round of talks in Rome:
“Today, in Rome, over four hours in our second round of talks, we made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions,” the official said Saturday. “We agreed to meet again next week and are grateful to our Omani partners for facilitating these talks and to our Italian partners for hosting us today.”
Russia too, as an original signatory to the defunct 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, is getting more deeply involved – reportedly at the invitation of the Trump administration.
The leader of Oman, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, visited Moscow on Tuesday where he met with President Vladimir Putin to discuss what’s next.
“Oman has been mediating between Iran and the United States as President Donald Trump seeks an agreement that would curb Iran’s nuclear program, which Washington believes is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon,” writes Reuters.
Fiery exchange between Israeli spox and editor-and-chief of Russia’s RT…
A fiery back-and-forth after we asked Israeli foreign ministry spokesperson if Israel will give up its nuclear weapons if Iran's nuclear program is dismantled.
"Israel is not a threat to anyone. We don't have any ambitions in any other country. Iran has ambition in the entire… pic.twitter.com/LlSH3Y3OYD
“We discussed the progress of negotiations between Iranian and American representatives,” a Kremlin statement said. Moscow and Tehran have been increasingly close, given their recent cooperation on defense, and in places like Ukraine – where Russian forces are heavily reliant on Iran-produced suicide drones.
end
IRAN
Iran fortifying buried nuclear sites as talks with US continue, report says
The US and Iran prepare to hold a third round of talks this weekend on a possible deal to reimpose restraints on Tehran’s nuclear program.
By REUTERSAPRIL 23, 2025 15:42
A missile is launched during an annual drill in the coastal area of the Gulf of Oman and near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran(photo credit: REUTERS)
Iran is ringing two deeply buried tunnel complexes with a massive security perimeter linked to its main nuclear facility, a report said Wednesday, amid US and Israeli threats of attack.
The Institute for Science and International Security released its report based on recent satellite imagery as the US and Iran prepare to hold a third round of talks this weekend on a possible deal to reimpose restraints on Tehran’s nuclear program.
US President Donald Trump, who pulled the US out of a 2015 pact designed to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, has threatened to bomb Iran unless a deal is quickly reached that would ensure that same goal.
Trump’s withdrawal prompted Iran to breach many of the pact’s restraints. Western powers suspect it is pursuing the capability to assemble a nuclear weapon, which Tehran denies.
David Albright, the institute president, said the new perimeter suggested that the tunnel complexes, under construction beneath Mt. Kolang Gaz La for several years, could become operational relatively soon.
Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024 (credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Tehran has not allowed UN nuclear inspectors access to the complexes, Albright said.
That has raised concerns that they could be used to store Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium or undeclared nuclear materials, and advanced centrifuges that could quickly purify enough uranium for a bomb, he said.
Iran has said that advanced centrifuges would be assembled in one complex in place of a facility at the nearby Natanz plant, the centerpiece of its nuclear program, destroyed by sabotage in 2020.
The complexes, Albright said, are being built at depths much greater than Iran’s deeply buried uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, near the holy city of Qom.
Commercial satellite images taken on March 29 showed hardened entrances to the complexes, high wall panels erected along the verges of a graded road encircling the mountain peak, and excavations for the installation of more panels, the report said.
The north side of the perimeter joins the Natanz plant security ring, it said.
Iran rejects total dismantlement of its nuclear program
The ongoing construction at the complexes appears to underscore Tehran’s rejection of demands that any talks with the US lead to the total dismantlement of its nuclear program, saying it has the right to peaceful nuclear technology.
Israel has not ruled out a strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities in coming months, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that any talks must lead to the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami, referring to concerns about the vulnerability of the country’s nuclear program, on Tuesday appeared to refer to projects such as the construction of the new security perimeter around the tunnel complexes.
“Efforts are ongoing” to “expand protective measures” at nuclear facilities, Eslami was quoted by Iranian state media as saying at an event marking the anniversary of the establishment of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
MAHA Rising: HHS, FDA Announce Phase-Out Of All Artificial Food Dyes
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 09:05 AM
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s quest to “Make America Healthy Again” grew far more substantial on Tuesday, with the announcement that the federal government will eliminate all petroleum-based synthetic food dyes by the end of 2026. The announcement came at a Washington DC news conference, with RFK Jr joined by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Marty Makary and National Institutes of Health Director Jay Bhattacharya. The podium was flanked by “MAHA Moms” and their children; the moms are a coalition of outspoken advocates of the Trump administration’s health agenda.
Kennedy framed the move against artificial, petroleum-based dyes using forceful language:
“For too long, some food producers have been feeding Americans petroleum-based chemicals without their knowledge or consent. These poisonous compounds offer no nutritional benefit and pose real, measurable dangers to our children’s health and development. That era is coming to an end. We’re restoring gold-standard science, applying common sense, and beginning to earn back the public’s trust. And we’re doing it by working with industry to get these toxic dyes out of the foods our families eat every day.”
The first two dyes in the crosshairs are Citrus Red No. 2 and Orange B. The FDA is initiating a process to revoke their authorizations “within the coming months.” The FDA will also pressure food producers to eradicate Red No. 3 earlier than Jan 15, 2027. The Biden administration had already set that deadline for its removal from foods and beverages, after long-running concerns about its potential to cause cancer and interfere with hormonal functions. The FDA will also pursue the removal of the remaining six previously-approved petroleum-based dyes by the end of 2026.
This is what M&Ms look like in countries with artificial dye bans. Clearly an aesthetic upgrade. Never was sure why American food has to look like clown vomit. pic.twitter.com/fxfHc8rjxc
“For the last 50 years, American children have increasingly been living in a toxic soup of synthetic chemicals,” said Makary. Justifying the sweeping change, the former Johns Hopkins surgeon pointed to a Lancet study that found artificial colors cause “increased hyperactivity” in a study of 3-year-olds and 8- and a 9-year-old children. He also cautioned that there’s more to America’s health problems than petroleum-based food dyes:
“There’s no one ingredient that accounts for the child chronic disease epidemic. And let’s be honest, taking petroleum-based food dyes out of the food supply is not a silver bullet that will instantly make America’s children healthy, but it is one important step.”
While noting that the FDA and Congress can force the desired changes, Makary said the drive to remove the dyes will initially take a collaborative approach with the food industry. “There are a number of tools at our disposal. I believe in love, let’s start in a friendly way and see if we can do this without any statutory or regulatory changes.”
To facilitate the momentous change, the FDA will authorize four new naturally-sourced food dyes in the upcoming weeks, including calcium phosphate, Galdieria extract blue, gardenia blue and FDA-approved butterfly pea flower extract, which achieves blue and purple shades. Makary also illustrated other workarounds: “For companies that are currently using petroleum based red dye, try watermelon juice or beet juice. For companies currently combining petroleum-based yellow chemical and red dyes together, try carrot juice.”
The transition will complicate the lives of countless brand managers across the food and beverage industry, with potential hits to profitability in the offing. Some brands have previously attempted their own voluntary removals of synthetic colors with bad outcomes. General Mills, for example, tried using natural dyes on its Trix cereal, but with the colors far less bold and people even complaining about the taste, sales waned — and the company went back to synthetic dyes.
CNBC reports that at least one company is poised to profit from the elimination of petroleum-based dyes: global seasoning and flavoring heavyweight McCormick, which helps brands achieve their desired tastes. “Reformulation activity has always been a part of the work that we do with our customer base, and we’ve been doing that for quite some time, but we are seeing a tick up in reformulation activity,” CEO Brendan Foley said on a March conference call.
While the libertarian crowd may wince at the idea of governments telling companies what ingredients they can use, many of them will no doubt feel some relief at the end result. As for the choices food companies make, Kennedy quipped, “If they want to add petroleum, [if] they want to eat petroleum, they ought to add it themselves at home, butthey shouldn’t be feeding it to the rest of us without our knowledge or consent.”
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, April 7-21, 2025 UNITED STATES (110)
Joe Dea, Reality TV and Music Video Director, Dies at 71
April 16, 2025
Joseph “Joe” Dea, a music video director, reality TV director and four-time Emmy winner, died Sunday of glioblastoma in Alameda, Calif. He was 71. Always an early adopter of cutting-edge visual technology, Dea’s fascination with the blend of painting and cinematic technique began at the University of Hartford’s Hartford Art School.
Playwright and Producer Robert Rosiello Jr. Dies at 52
April 16, 2025
Playwright, director, actor, set designer, and marketing maven Robert Rosiello Jr. died unexpectedly on March 26, 2025, at Doylestown Hospital in Pennsylvania. The cause, confirmed by his husband, Mark Cole, was cardiopulmonary arrest. He was 52.
‘Sopranos’ Dominic Chianese’s daughter dies post cancer diagnosis she knew she wouldn’t survive
April 18, 2025
Dominic Chianese, a star of the Sopranos, lost his daughter, Sarah Francesca Chianese, at 58, following a battle with cancer. She had been diagnosed with glioblastoma, a malignant braintumor that originates from glial cells, specifically astrocytes. In Sarah’s eulogy, shared on her Instagram, her mother admitted the diagnosis “was never going to be survivable.” However, she shared that Sarah “knew that from the onset, and conducted herself with an astounding measure of grace and kindness that persisted through her final months.” According to a fan page, which was asked to post on behalf of the family, confirmed she died on Tuesday surrounded by family.
Steely Dan Musician Dead at 68: Family Confirms Death of Drew Zingg
April 18, 2025
Drew Zingg, the renowned guitarist best known for his work with Steely Dan and Boz Scaggs, has passed away. Zingg was 68 years old. The cause of death has not been disclosed. His family shared the news of his passing through an Instagram post. “The Zingg family, his wife Katerina, his son Levon, and his brothers Peter and Chris are deeply saddened to tell you that earlier this week, Drew Zingg passed away in San Francisco [CA],” the caption alongside a snapshot of Zingg.
Los Angeles, California – Sadly, Joey Rimicci of Jughead’s Revenge passed away on April 10. Rimicci had suffered a stroke and passed away at a hospital near his home.
Damien Stone: Gay porn star and bodybuilding coach dies ‘suddenly’ aged 32 from heart complications
April 17, 2025
Gay adult actor and bodybuilding champion Damien Stone has died suddenly from heart complications, at the age of 32. The news of his passing was first reported by porn site STR8UPGAYPORN on April 1, with his family initially announcing his death on March 11. The statement read: “Str8Up is sorry to report that gay porn star Damien Stone has died following complications from an enlarged heart,” the website said. Stone was originally from Moldova, but grew up in Pennsylvania, where he went on to become a three-time state bodybuilding champion.
Salem, Ore. – State Sen. Aaron Woods, a former tech executive serving his first term in the Oregon Legislature, died on Saturday. He was 75. Two Democratic lawmakers told OPB that Woods died due to complications with cancer that had recently reemerged. The Wilsonville Democrat recently took a leave from this year’s legislative session to undergo treatment. Woods was in Colorado receiving chemotherapy when he died. Woods was diagnosed with pancreaticcancer in 2023 and received treatment. Friends say he was in full form when he attended the Democratic National Convention as a delegate last year.
Washington State Senator Bill Ramos dies unexpectedly Saturday night
April 20, 2025
ISSAQUAH, Wash. — Washington State Senator Bill Ramos died suddenly on Saturday night, according to his wife, King County Councilmember Sarah Perry. She made the announcement on Facebook. “It is with the deepest heartache that I share the news that the love of my life, Bill Ramos, passed away while on a trail run tonight.” Ramos was 69 years old. His wife shared more on her devastating loss, in a news release Sunday morning: “He was doing what he loved – running on one of the many trails near our Issaquah home. For Bill, these runs were a way to relieve stress during a busy legislative session, a way to stay active – and exercise our dog Sadie – and a way to reconnect to the forests and hills he loved that shaped his career.”
Former Ohio State Representative Ron Hood Passes Away Unexpectedly
April 20, 2025
CHILLICOTHE, OH – Former Ohio House Representative Ronald Edward Hood, a longtime Republican lawmaker known for his staunch conservative stances and multiple terms in the state legislature, passed awaysuddenlyovernight. He was 55 years old. In addition to his legislative work, Hood ran in the 2021 special election for Ohio’s 15th congressional district and later announced a bid for governor in the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial race. Hood reportedly died of medical complications. No further details have been released regarding thecause of death.
Former Columbus councilwoman, Judy Thomas, has passed away
April 19, 2025
Muscogee County Coroner Buddy Bryan confirmed Judy Thomas, a former city councilor, passed away earlier today at Emory Hospital in Atlanta [GA]. Thomas resigned from her position nearly a month ago following health concerns. Thomas, 79, died Saturday at Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, where she was being treated for a blood infection.
Just a few months after resigning as Fauntleroy Community Association president after 11 years, Mike Dey has unexpectedlydied at age 74. His wife Susan Lantz-Dey had been outdoors at their home Thursday night, then came indoors to make dinner, and found him unconscious. Seattle [WA] Fire medics responded but were unable to revive him.
GILBERT, Ariz. – U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs announced today that his daughter died earlier this week after a battle with cancer. Cosette Biggs-Finerd, a mother of 3 young children, was 37. Biggs said in an early morning post on X his family is devastated by her loss but he was grateful they could gather at her side in her final days.
Jennifer Toth, author who chronicled NYC’s ‘mole people,’ dies at 57
April 19, 2025
Jennifer Toth, a journalist and author whose books illuminated stories of struggle and crisis, including her journeys under the New York streets to chronicle the hidden world of “mole” people living in abandoned tunnels and subterranean nooks, died April 12 at a hospital in Silver Spring, Maryland. She was 57. The cause was respiratory complications, said her husband, Craig Whitlock, a journalist at The Washington Post.
ATLANTA, GA — 11Alive is saddened to report that veteran reporter and beloved member of the 11Alive newsroom, Jon Shirek, has died after a battle with braincancer. Shirek had recently retired from the business a little more than a year ago. In 1980, he took a job with WXIA and dedicated more than 40 years of his life to the station until February 2024.
Researcher’s Note – WXIA-TV (channel 11) is a television station in Atlanta affiliated with NBC. NBCUniversal, the parent company of NBC News, is requiring U.S.-based workers returning to the office to be fully vaccinated [sic]: Link
Former Miami High, University of Miami basketball star Dwayne Collins dies at 37
April 18, 2025
New Jersey – Former Miami High and University of Miami basketball player Dwayne Collins died on Wednesday, three days after his 37th birthday. The cause of death has not been announced, but a heart attack is suspected, according to multiple sources.
Joe Juraszek Cause of Death: The Dallas Cowboys mourn death of beloved coach
April 18, 2025
The Dallas Cowboys are in the thick of NFL Draft preparations and still riding high from Tyron Smith’s emotional retirement ceremony this week–but joy quickly turned to sorrow as the franchise lost one of its most beloved behind-the-scenes figures. The team confirmed that former strength and conditioning coach Joe Juraszek has passed away. He was 67. The cause of death has not yet been disclosed.
One-Time Indiana Football Assistant Coach Mike DeBord Dead At 69
April 15, 2025
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Mike DeBord, a Muncie, Ind. Native who was the offensive coordinator for Tom Allen’s initial seasons at Indiana, died on Wednesday. He was 69. DeBord died due to complications from a stroke he suffered in 2021. DeBord had a long career in both the college ranks and in the NFL. DeBord returned to Michigan one last time in 2020 before he finished his career at Kansas as offensive coordinator in 2021.
Researcher’s Note – NFL to Restrict Access to Team Employees Who Refuse COVID-19 Vaccine [sic] Without Reason: Link
by the deadly COVID policies of Operation Warp Speed (OWS) lockdowns, schools closures that harmed, killed so many, by the deadly Malone Bourla Pfizer et al. mRNA transfection vaccine, yes for BOTH!
Two of the greatest disasters happened in USA, the OWS lockdowns and the deadly Malone Bancel Sahin Kariko Weissman et al. mRNA vaccine, in history, initiated under Trump 1.0 and expanded and mandated under Biden. No one has been held responsible for the fraud of it and the deadliness of it…and the US needs reparations, victim compensations funds etc. along with reversal and retroactive at that, of the LIABILITY PROTECTION Act Sheild under the PREP Act. So, we can sue them all and jail as many as we can and if judges declare and juries, in proper courts, that criminal capital offenses happened and judges say death penalty, then we put who judges say should be put to death…to death. We strip of all monies, and we jail and we execute as per courts. Hang them high!
Thank you Stephen, great idea of reparations and we MUST have reparations for both, not one without the other. It is time.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
If You Believe The Trump Pivot Story, “Clearly You Enjoy Fairy Tales”
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 01:05 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
And They All Lived Happily Ever After(?)
Once again, an awful lot just happened, even by 2025 standards, and while some might be away with the faeries as a result, I still things as very Grimm.
As Tuesday saw the Wall Street Journal warn that the US Dow was heading for its worst April since the 1929 Great Depression, which fits the present zeitgeist, in Washington D.C. we got a flurry of developments:
President Trump said he doesn’t intend to fire Fed Chair Powell – which he can’t anyway. And he may not even want to if he could as it’s useful to have a scapegoat for anything that goes wrong. Markets loved the prospect of going back to a world where they can savagely criticize, and lean against, central bankers but elected officials can’t; let’s see if they proceed to price for the Fed cutting rates ahead in exactly the manner Trump was talking about.
Elon Musk floated that he’s about to step back from DOGE from next month, only spending time wielding a chainsaw a few days a week.
Nouriel Roubini posted a defence of US CEA Head Miran which claims there are no White House plans for capital controls (that he knows of).
The State Department is going to get a big shake-up to slim it down.
At Health and Human Services, RFK, Jr. is to ban artificial food dyes, also stating: “Sugar is poison, and Americans need to know that it is poisoning us.”
US Treasury Secretary Bessent side-briefed an investment bank that the trade stand-off with China is “unsustainable” –it’s a de facto embargo now after all– and a deal would be struck soon, even if it will take 2-3 years for things to normalise. This saw stocks rip higher before the public heard about it –“Main Street not Wall Street”, right?– though Bessent apparently also said much depended on China, not the US, moving.
The White House added a trade deal with China is going well, and Trump said the final tariff won’t be as high as 145% “because China will have to make a deal.” To a 60% tariff, once unthinkable but now looking reasonable by comparison? To voluntary export restraint?
The US said it’s received 18 trade proposals and has meetings with 34 others this week – all of whom will be told to deal less with China.
As US Trade Representative ‘Keeping up with the Jones Act’ port fees now in place are so high they also decouple the US from Chinese-built vessels, with Chinese-cranes, containers, and chassis next in line. It’s full steam ahead for the trade war on that front.
Meanwhile, China asked South Korea not to export goods to US defense firms that contain its rare earths, and Vietnam and Korea clamped down on transshipment of Chinese goods to the US, showing sides are being taken. Expect more of that ahead.
With no sign of realist statecraft, Politico flags ‘Trump’s tariff war empowers Europe’s free traders’– just not the ones prepared to match US offers of removing all regulatory barriers to trade– as “Even the EU’s most protectionist countries are realizing that they need new friends to trade with as their oldest ally goes rogue.”
EU Commission President Von der Leyen adds the ‘World is ‘lining up’ to work with Europe amid Trump’s trade war’. So, Europe will be importing a lot more then? Because nobody wants to replace exportingto the US with importing from the EU. In which case, Europe ‘replacing the US’ globally means taking on all its key weaknesses, such as trade deficits, with few of its strengths, such as energy, tech, and defence muscle.
In geopolitics, Russia proposed to freeze the invasion of Ukraine along current lines as part of a peace deal. Europe remains concerned that could lead to further concessions from the US would weaken Ukraine going forwards, and Kyiv has already rejected ceding Crimea to Russia. Is there really a happy ending there?
US and Israeli military preparations for a strike on Iran continue, as President Trump says he and Israeli PM Netanyahu are “on the same side of every issue.” Yet US-Iran nuclear talks are advancing quickly, with the two sides already exchanging drafts according to once source – and as Israel sees its outgoing equivalent of the FBI leaves an affidavit that the PM wanted him to spy on protestors and swear loyalty to him over the legal system. Some would argue that the last time the Middle East saw a happy ending was in ‘The Tales of the Arabian Nights’.
And sounding like one itself, the now suddenly ex-head of the WEF and his wife — whom all the Liberal World Order’s great and good liked to hobnob with — are under investigation for financial and ethical misconduct involving ATMs, private in-room massages at hotels, and luxury travel. I’m shocked that an organization as democratic, transparent, and accountable as the WEF, and which charges nearly $50 for a hotdog, might allegedly have seen misuse of funds like that. Some will be equally sure the next WEF head will Build Back Better.
So, where do we sit now? With stocks higher, key bond yields lower, DXY trending higher if off yesterday’s peak, and gold sharply lower if trying to rebuild momentum in early Asian trading.
But if you think that just because Trump said he isn’t going to fire Powell in an era in which the independence of central banks is going to be called into question by the demands of realpolitik; or because he said something nice about China and tariffs for the nth time as the world starts to divide along geopolitical lines; or because nuclear-armed Russia and nearly-nuclear-armed Iran are about to live happily ever after with the neighbours they have sworn to destroy,… well, clearly you enjoy fairy tales.
Sadly, we still have to achieve a new global security, financial, economic, and trading architecture to replace the old US-centric one that didn’t work well enough not to collapse. That will take us 1,001 nights, at least!
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
Oil Prices Drop As Kazakh Chaos Threatens OPEC Alliance
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 08:38 AM
Oil turned lower after Kazakhstan said it will prioritize national interests over those of the OPEC+ alliance, a move that risks fueling further tensions within the cartel.
Overnight saw prices rally after bigger than expected inventory drawdowns reported by API in the US, but that was all erased this morning as Kazakhstan’s newly appointed energy minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said the country is not able to reduce production at its three largest projects as they are controlled by international oil majors, Reuters reported.
He said the country will prioritize its national interests over commitments to the OPEC+ alliance.
The move lower shows just how overly sensitive financial markets have become in recent months. Kazakhstan has been ‘over-producing’ for years with OPEC unable to control them… but suddenly it’s an issue?
END
Oil Prices Tumble On Report Some OPEC+ Members Want Accelerated Output Increase
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 10:32 AM
Update 10:33 am ET: What was already an ugly day for oil on the back of the Kazakhstan comments that it would effectively not adhere to OPEC+ quotas, turned even uglier after Reuters came out with another oil hit piece, reporting that “some” OPEC+ member countries are pushing for another output increase. The report said its OPEC sources said there were calls for that to be tabled at the May 5 meeting and enacted in June.
Why OPEC+ would agree to flooding the world with oil at a time when most major countries are already teetering on recession, and a flood of production could send oil crashing and spark budget crises across OPEC+ nations, was unclear. What was clear is that whoever commissioned the Reuters report, was short oil, as WTI dumped as low as $61.53 from a session high just shy of $65.
* * *
Oil turned lower after Kazakhstan said it will prioritize national interests over those of the OPEC+ alliance, a move that risks fueling further tensions within the cartel.
Overnight saw prices rally after bigger than expected inventory drawdowns reported by API in the US, but that was all erased this morning as Kazakhstan’s newly appointed energy minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said the country is not able to reduce production at its three largest projects as they are controlled by international oil majors, Reuters reported.
He said the country will prioritize its national interests over commitments to the OPEC+ alliance.
The move lower shows just how overly sensitive financial markets have become in recent months. Kazakhstan has been ‘over-producing’ for years with OPEC unable to control them… but suddenly it’s an issue?
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES/
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1389 UP 0.0035 PTS OR 35 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 142.01 DOWN 0.683 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3296 UP.0025 OR 25 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3834 UP 0.0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.40 PTS OR 0.10%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 510.30 PTS OR 2.37%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.39%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 510.30 PTS OR 2.37%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.40 PTS OR 0.10%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.39%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 648.03 PTS OR 1.89%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3335.25
silver:$32.97
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.93 UP .24 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan UP TO 7.2886, CNY ON SHORE ..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2843: YUAN HIGHER
TURKISH LIRA: 38.28 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.332
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 12 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.268% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.726 DOWN 15 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.783 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3290.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.84
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 52.94 PTS OR 0.64%
GERMAN DAX: UP 47.47 PTS OR .41%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 92.60 PTS OR .72%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 32.59 PTS OR .09%
WTI Oil price 62.98 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 67.25 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 83.42 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 92/ 100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4985 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5470 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.169 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.780 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1331 DOWN 0.0019 OR 19 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3269 DOWN .0003 OR 3 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.555 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.3300
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.27 UP 0.574 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.38883 UP 0.0035 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 35 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 62,16
Brent OIL: 65.98
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.387
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 4.835%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 3.857%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.257 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.860 UP 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.60 UP 90 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.28 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 83.48 DOWN 2 AND 48/100 roubles
GOLD 3295.50 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 33.64 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 419.59 OR 1.07%
NASDAQ 100 UP 416.85 PTS OR 2.27%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 28.94 DOWN 1.67 PTS OR 5.66%
GLD: $ 303.65 DOWN 7.46 PTS OR 2.40%
SLV/ $30.56 UP 1.06 PTS OR OR 3.59%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 149.44 OR 0.61%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
Headline Roulette Returns To Wreak Havoc Across Markets
by Tyler Durden
XXXXXXXXXX
MORNING BIG NEWS
Reuters Pours Cold Water On WSJ Tariff Report, Says Any De-Escalation Steps Would Not Be Unilateral
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 10:30 AM
Update 10:15am ET: Just minutes after the WSJ report (below) sparked another boost to stocks shortly after the close, Reuters has poured cold water on risk sentiment reporting that any tariff cuts would only take place pending talks with Beijing and would not be unilateral but in conjunction with China talks:
WHITE HOUSE WOULD LOOK AT LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINESE IMPORTS PENDING TALKS WITH BEIJING
ANY STEPS WOULD BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CHINA TALKS, NOT UNILATERAL -SOURCE
Following the Reuters note, stocks promptly reversed the earlier gains on the much more cheerful WSJ report which sounded as if Trump was willing to capitulate.
Earlier:
Stocks are spiking higher, and extending premarket gains, after the WSJ reported that the Trump administration is considering slashing its steep tariffs on Chinese imports – in some cases by more than half -in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing that have roiled global trade and investment, according to people familiar with the matter.
According to the report, China tariffs were likely to come down to between roughly 50% and 65%, about half of their current levels. The administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to the one proposed by the House committee on China late last year: 35% levies for items the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, and at least 100% for items deemed as strategic to America’s interest. The bill proposed phasing in those levies over five years.
In retrospect, the WSJ report said nothing new – and appears to be an attempt to merely stay in the newsflow – after Trump said Tuesday he was willing to cut tariffs on Chinese goods, saying the 145% tariffs he imposed on China during his second term would come down. “But it won’t be zero,” he said. The announcement sent stocks surging afterhours.
On Wednesday, China signaled it was open to trade talks with the U.S., though Beijing warned it wouldn’t negotiate under continued threats from the White House. In China’s policymaking circles, Trump’s comments Tuesday were viewed as a sign of him folding, the WSJ reported citing people who consult with Chinese officials said.
The expressions of openness to a deal from both sides represent a shift from much of the past month, as the world’s two largest economies exchanged reciprocal tariff increases and testy words, helping push stock markets around the world to their worst weeks in many years.
President Trump hasn’t made a final determination, the people said, adding that the discussions remain fluid and several options are on the table.
Separately, and at almost the exact same time, the WSJ also piled in on the other key topic du jour, namely the “explanation” why Trump decided not to fire Jerome Powell – as Trump also revealed he would not do yesterday. According to the WSJ, the White House had engaged lawyers to see how Chair Powell could be removed from office. However, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick are said to have stepped in and raised concerns about the market implications of such a move. Some more details:
As Trump’s criticism of the Fed chair ramped up over the last week, White House lawyers privately reviewed legal options for attempting to remove Powell, including whether they could do so for “cause,” according to people familiar with the matter. The laws that created the Federal Reserve say Fed governors can only be removed before their term ends for cause, which courts have generally interpreted to mean malfeasance or impropriety. Finding a pretext for dismissing Powell would have edged the White House closer to a dramatic escalation with the central bank.
Those discussions came to a halt early this week when Trump told his senior aides that he wouldn’t try to oust Powell. His decision came after interventions from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who warned Trump that such a move could trigger far-reaching market chaos and a messy legal fight, the people said. Lutnick also told the president that efforts to fire the Fed chair likely wouldn’t lead to any practical change on interest rates because other members of the Fed’s board would likely approach monetary policy similarly to Powell, one of the people said.
While there was nothing actually new in the WSJ reports, they validated the good news that had pushed stocks up sharply higher overnight, and the result was further gains this morning which sent the S&P up more than 3% and fast approaching the first key CTA buy trigger around 5460.
AFTERNOON’S BIG NEWS
USA DATA
US New Home Sales Surged In March As Mortgage Rates Tumbled, But…
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 10:10 AM
New home sales soared 7.4% MoM in March (dramatically better than the +1.3% MoM expected), lifting sales up 6.0% YoY…
But…
While new home sales soared amid the tumbling mortgage rates, April has seen rates surge back up to 7.00%, suggesting this sudden sales spike will be short-lived…
And if confirmation was needed, the more timely ‘mortgage applications’ data shows a major plunge in the last two weeks…
…and if you’re hoping for lower rates to keep the American Dream alive, that will likely come at the cost of a recessionary environment…
…not exactly a great background for homebuyers, whose sentiment already languishes at record lows…
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Bessent Calls For ‘Reforms’ Among ‘Bretton Woods Institutions’ To Rein In Global Trade Imbalances
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 09:59 AM
Days after Scott Bessent dazzled JP Morgan with closed-door comments (aka not Main Street) that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable, the US Treasury Secretary is set to deliver comments on Wednesday at the IIF Global Outlook Forum regarding the state of the global financial system as the Trump administration seeks to tamp down rhetoric over China.
According to a copy of Bessent’s prepared remarks, he is set to tell the IIF that “America First does not mean America Alone,” and that the International Monetary Fund must prioritize economic and financial sustainability. He is calling for IMF and World Bank reforms after “mission creep,” i.e. non-economic goals such as climate change and social justice, but that the Trump administration wants to work with them.
“Going forward, the Trump Administration will leverage U.S. leadership and influence at these institutions and push them to accomplish their important mandates,” Bessent said, adding “The United States will also demand that the management and staff of these institutions be accountable for demonstrating real progress.”
Bessent – who blamed persistent U.S. trade deficits on foreign policy decisions that promote excess saving and low wages abroad, added that“The architects of Bretton Woods recognized that a global economy required global coordination,” and called for “key reforms to ensure the Bretton Woods institutions are serving their stakeholders—not the other way around.”
He also encouraged “security-aligned trade,” suggesting that U.S. security partnerships should influence economic alignment – a strategic counter to China’s Belt and Road.
China Rebalancing
Bessent also said that China “is in need of rebalancing.”
“Recent data shows the Chinese economy tilting even further away from consumption toward manufacturing. China’s economic system, with growth driven by manufacturing exports, will continue to create even more serious imbalances with its trading partners if the status quo is allowed to continue.
China’s current economic model is built on exporting its way out of its economic troubles. It’s an unsustainable model that is not only harming China but the entire world.
China needs to change. The country knows it needs to change. Everyone knows it needs to change. And we want to help it change—because we need rebalancing too.“
According to an anonymously sourced (of course) report by the WSJ minutes before Bessent’s speech (and which was immediately denied), the Trump administration “is considering slashing its steep tariffs on Chinese imports—in some cases by more than half—in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing.”
President Trump hasn’t made a final determination, the people said, adding that the discussions remain fluid and several options are on the table.
One senior White House official said the China tariffs were likely to come down to between roughly 50% and 65%. The administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to the one proposed by the House committee on China late last year: 35% levies for items the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, and at least 100% for items deemed as strategic to America’s interest, some of the people said. The bill proposed phasing in those levies over five years. -WSJ
Watch Treasury Secretary Bessent speak here:
Bessent’s comments also come after President Donald Trump softened his tone on the unfolding trade war between the world’s two largest economies – to which China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Guo Jiakun replied “our doors are wide open.“
According to Tuesday comments by Trump, “very high” tariffs on Chinese imports will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”
“I think we’re going to live together very happily and ideally work together, so I think it’s going to work out very well,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
Trump notably excluded China from a pause on “reciprocal” tariffs that were extended to other trading partners in order to allow them time to negotiate – blaming China’s retaliatory actions for its exclusion.
The China tariffs include a 125% reciprocal tariff on top of Trump’s original 20% tariff related to the fentanyl trade. Combined with pre-existing Section 301 tariffs, some Chinese goods face levies as high as 245%.
END
LOS ANGELES
“West Coast On Tipping Point”: Los Angeles Port Set For Steep Drop In Traffic
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 01:25 PM
The Trump administration is likely monitoring sliding scheduled import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles—the largest container port in the Western Hemisphere—amid President Trump’s overnight remarks hinting at a potential de-escalation in the trade war with China. The president’s comments to ease trade tensions with Beijing come as scheduled import volumes at the LA Port indicate possible inbound trade disruptions on the horizon.
According to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for vessel operators, scheduled import volumes for the LA Port for the week ending May 3 show a 38.53% week-over-week plunge. Year-over-year, the data shows a 9.79% decrease. For the week ending May 10, scheduled import volumes continued to slow, with a year-over-year change down around 35%.
We’ve closely monitored the fallout from the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. for weeks, as trade disruptions ripple from China to the U.S. Now, it appears those disruptions are about to reach American West Coast ports.
“We are at a tipping point on the West Coast,” Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics, told CNBC, adding, “Looking at how many truck loads are available versus trucks, we’ve seen a precipitous drop, over 700,000 loads have evaporated nationally in the past week compared to two weeks prior.”
Falling scheduled import volumes at the LA Port coincide with a rise in canceled sailings.
More color from CNBC:
The vessel drop coincides with a rise in canceled sailings from ocean carriers on Pacific routes that include ports of Long Beach, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Seattle, according to an alert from Worldwide Logistics informing clients of blank sailings.
The Gemini alliance between Maersk and Hapag Lloyd has a cancellation rate of 24.39%; followed by the Ocean Alliance, comprising CMA CGM, Cosco Shipping, Evergreen, and OOCL, at 18%; and the Premier Alliance, comprising Ocean Network Express, Hyundai Merchant Marine, and Yang Ming Marine Transport, at 15%. MSC and ZIM currently have a 10% rate of canceled sailings.
Ocean carriers are trying to balance the pullback in orders resulting from the tariffs and the escalation of tensions in the trade war. CNBC recently reported a total of 80 blank, or canceled, sailings out of China as demand plummets and carriers suspend or adjust transpacific services.
Trump’s possible de-escalation of the trade war also came after the IMF reported on Tuesday that tariffs had prompted it to slash its global growth forecast.
Probably what compelled the sudden shift from the top.
Another week or two of this, and you get empty shelves in the US. Actual COVID-style physical shortages. https://t.co/5m8v5KEvFK
WH Press Sec Karoline Leavitt: “The President believes that they (Fed) have making moves and taking action in the name of politics rather than in the name of what is right for the American economy… ” https://x.com/RSBNetwork/status/1914738051781218309
Tuesday’s King Report: Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. A key should be how much early pressure from foreign selling appears… It looks like the dollar should bounce today. If it does, US stocks should rally.
US stocks soared on Tuesday. The dollar rebounded sharply in Asian and early European trading. However, gold hit another all-time high despite the dollar rebound.
Gold hits $3,500 as Trump’s Fed broadside sparks flight to havenhttps://t.co/3sKUea1Pve Bullion has surged about 32% this year, outperforming nearly every other major asset class… gold is now “the only true safe haven left,” according to analysts at Jefferies Financial Group Inc….
@WallStreetMav: Gold has now beat stocks going way back to the year 2000. Media focuses on tariffs, but gold’s underlying driver is government spending that’s out of control worldwide. Even Central Bankers know this. And they’ve bought 7,000 tons of gold as insurance.
@profstonge: Gold is on fire, up a third since Trump won. While stocks and bonds crash out. Gold is fundamentally a bet that governments can’t control their spending. That bet keeps getting better. https://x.com/profstonge/status/1914657940923158955
Gold has gone parabolic. When this occurs, there is no telling how high something will ascent. However, when/if the Fed starts cutting rates, some type of top could materialize.
The dollar rallied robustly during early Nikkei trading on Tuesday; but it peaked at 20:53 ET. The Dollar Index fell from 98.564 to 98.012 at 1:26 ET. The index then rallied to the daily high of 98.663 at 9:40 ET. The Dollar Index then rolled over.
ESMs traded mostly modestly lower during early Nikkei trading on Tuesday but jumped higher at 19:45 ET. ESMs hit a peak of 5223.25 at 21:44 ET and rolled over into sideways trading. After the 2:00 ET China close, ESMs rallied to 5254.50 at 2:49 ET. After the 3:00 ET European opening, ESMs began a slow-motion modest decline that ended at 7:56 ET with a 5216.50 print.
ESMs then relentlessly rallied to 5303.75 at 11:23 ET. After a retreat to 5283.00 at 11:44 ET on selling for the 11:30 ET European close, ESMs and the dollar jumped higher on the following story:
Bessent Sees De-Escalation with China, Situation Unsustainable US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate. Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn’t open to the public or media… https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bessent-sees-escalation-china-situation-155511836.html
ESMs hit 5336.00 at 12:28 ET and rolled over. They dropped lower when Bessent said “trade negotiations with China will be a slog.” Though ESMs sank, the dollar hit new highs. Yes, Virginia, numerous traders thought a China trade deal would appear in short order and when reality was thrust on them, they panicked and sold stuff. PS – The Dollar Index hit a daily high of 98.988 at 16:00 ET.
Reuters – Bessent: Rebalancing of China Economy towards Consumption and U.S. Economy towards Manufacturing in Two to Three Years Would Be a ‘Huge Win’
CNBC’s @EamonJavers: Bessent also said: “If you look, I think that saw a number that container bookings between China in the U.S., and this is from two weeks ago, is down 64%. So the goal isn’t to decouple. The goal isn’t to decouple. And I do say China is going to be a slog in terms of the negotiations, because that engagement started – I would – not yet. But I think again, I think neither side thinks the status quo, is sustainable, but I’ve said it quite a bit…. I think that at the end of the day, could be very optimistic, because there is a big deal to be done. I think that no one in this room believes that China does not need to rebalance. I think that maybe some people in this room, but certainly no one in the administration, believes that they have had free and fair trade… We want to stay engaged, but it’s going to be more fair, because there’s a report out, it came out about six months ago, called the China Shock… and it just showed what happened after China came in, they had to the global trading system to communities, but more importantly, actually what happened to Americans. Some of the communities came back, but a lot of the people never did. And that can’t happen again. It can’t be allowed to continue happening…https://x.com/EamonJavers/status/1914732639623201115
ESMs sank to 5262.75 at 14:00 ET and then had an A-B-C rally to 5332.25 at 16:00 ET.
After the NYSE close, Tesla reported EPS of .27, .41 exp., and revenue of $19.34B, $21.35B exp. TSLA sank to 232.00 (-2.9%, 237.97 close) at 16:05 ET but quickly rallied to 243.95 at 16:07 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session The NFL Draft is only 1 day away! Stocks soared as the dollar rebounded sharply.
Negative aspects of previous session Gold hit a new high despite the dollar rally.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session USMs only rallied moderately and were +14/32 at the NYSE close.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5268.35 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5309.61; 5207.67
Philadelphia Fed President Pat Harker, a hawk until Biden became president: Fed Has Built Up Credibility by Being Independent and Objective – BBG
Only Ivy League economic students, some financial asset bulls, and children under the “age of accountability” believe what Harker is trying to sell! The evidence is clear & ample about the Fed!
The Fed was created to be ‘the lender of last result” after JP Morgan Jr. bailed out Wall Street over the Crash of 1907. After FDR implemented socialism in the USA in the Thirties and to finance WWII, the Fed increasingly became the facilitator of socialism, via massive federal spending, in the US. The Fed for decades has monetized US debt so Congress could spend above US means.
@YahooFinance: “Close to 80% of American households can no longer afford to buy even the cheapest entry-level home,” Housing Research Center president Alex Barron says. “Where it goes from here is going to be dependent on where interest rates go.”
Think about it! Millions of Americans lost their homes when the housing bubble burst. The Fed, Congress, and Bush then bailed out Wall Street; and elements of Wall Street, aided & abetted by Fed MBS monetization and low rates purchased those homes – and more!
PS – ‘They’ did something similar for the Covid Crisis!
Wall Street has purchased hundreds of thousands of single-family homes since the Great Recession. Corporations backed by private equity groups such as Blackstone and Pretium Partners bought tens of thousands of homes across the U.S. Sun Belt… Institutional investors may control 40% of U.S. single-family rental homes by 2030, according to MetLife Investment Management… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/how-wall-street-bought-single-family-homes-and-put-them-up-for-rent.html
PE titans disingenuously assert that they are not directly buying homes. They are just financing entities that are buying US homes.
Trump won in 2016 on a populist agenda but he did not walk the walk. Now, DJT is implementing a populist agenda – and populists have advocated for decades for Fed reform or diminution.
@ClayTravis: Nike appears to be funding a study giving young kids puberty blockers and gender transition drugs to see how it impacts their sports performance. This is downright evil. Good work by @RealDanZak here: https://t.co/b7QE3eGqYs
Trump Says He Has No Intention of Firing Fed Chair Powell – BBG 17:24 ET “Never did… I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates… (prefers Powell be early, not late) … I think we will make a deal with China…”
Trump said tariffs on China will be significantly reduced and he doesn’t plan to take a hardline approach.
Today – Stocks should soar early on Trump’s Powell and China tariff remarks. On Tuesday, stocks rallied sharply from an extremely oversold condition. Typically, bounces last 2 to 3 sessions. Though Tesla’s results were bad, wise guys and DJT-haters are massively short the stock. This is probably why Tesla rebounded quickly in after-hour trading. Panicky short covering could occur in TSLA and other stocks. ESMs exploded to 5424.00 (+109.25) and NQMs rocketed to 18802.75 (+417.75) at 19:13 ET.
ESMs are +91.00; NQMs are +343.00; and USMs are +30/32 at 20:15 ET.
Expected earnings: T .52, BA -1.21, GD 3.48, NSC 2.68, PM 1.61, ORLY 9.85, NEM .90, IBM 1.42
Expected economic data: April S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49, Services 52.8, Composite 52.2; March New Homse Sales 684k; Chicago Fed Pres & DJT-hater Goolsbee 9 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Musalem 9:30 ET, Fed Gov & DJT ally Waller 9:35 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5672; 100-day MA: 5838; 150-day MA: 5828; 200-day MA: 5749 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,943; 100-day MA: 42,866; 150-day MA: 42,806; 200-day MA: 42,199 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5158.20 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6306.68 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD arenegative– a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5645.69 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5167.45 triggers a sell signal
@ABCNewsLive: HHS Sec. RFK Jr. announced on Tuesday a series of measures to phase out eight artificial food dyes from the U.S. food supply.
RFK Jr: “When my uncle was president 3% of American kids had chronic disease, today it is around 60%… there was zero spent in this country, treating chronic disease when my uncle was president. Today it’s about $1.8 trillion annually… 74% of American kids cannot qualify for military service…
@seanmdav: John Roberts sat around and did nothing while U.S. citizens were thrown in solitary confinement without a trial for years, but when a foreign terrorist illegal was deported, Roberts suddenly became very concerned with due process.
“The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident which everybody has decided not to see.” Ayn Rand
Tim Walz employee who allegedly caused over $20K in damages to Teslas let off by woke Minnesota DA — as cops slam dealhttps://trib.al/zHONIgU @mrddmia: Time to bring federal criminal charges. (The DA too.)
Where will the next pope come from? Analysts say it could be Africa’s time 3 cardinals from Africa are considered papabile Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, from the… Congo, Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76, from Ghana, and Guinea’s Cardinal Robert Sarah, who is viewed as less likely due his being 80 years old… “The Church has been growing at an amazingly rapid rate over the past few decades in the face of government opposition in many African nations, overt persecution of Christians and Catholics in many of the same nations, and violent opposition. Further, the leaders who have been appointed bishops and raised up as cardinals are generally highly educated, often in the West.”… “The African Church is, as a whole, more conservative than the European and American Church. But wouldn’t these Europeans and Americans love to be part of making history!”… https://www.foxnews.com/world/where-next-pope-come-from-analysts-say-could-africas-time
@AviKaner: This past Easter week, 100 Christians were massacred in Nigeria, raising the toll to nearly 20,000 Christians. Yet the world is silent. There is not one demonstration on any college campus.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
the left are nuts
Judge Orders Trump Admin To Issue Correction Notices To Fired Probationary Workers
A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to provide laid-off federal probationary employees with a written notice stating that they were not terminated for performance reasons but that it was part of a government-wide termination effort.
U.S. District Judge William Alsup also ordered Acting Director of the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Charles Ezell not to tell agencies to terminate “any federal employee or group of federal employees.”
The judge wrote on April 18 that the firings of probationary workers followed an OPM template that states they were fired for job performance reasons.
“Termination under the false pretense of performance is an injury that will persist for the working life of each civil servant,” wrote Alsup, who is based in San Francisco. “The stain created by OPM’s pretense will follow each employee through their careers and will limit their professional opportunities.”
The latest directive from the judge is part of a lawsuit that was filed by labor unions and nonprofits contesting the mass firings of thousands of probationary workers in February under President Donald Trump.
Probationary workers are typically new hires or employees who were recently promoted and who must serve a trial period of one to two years before they receive full-term, or permanent, employment.
“If a particular termination was in fact carried out after an individualized evaluation of that employee’s performance or fitness, the Chief Human Capital Officer (or equivalent) of that agency may instead submit … a declaration, under oath and seal, stating so and providing the individual reasoning underpinning that termination,” Alsup also wrote, setting a May 8 deadline to do so.
On April 8, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked an earlier order from Alsup that required the administration to return to work some of the terminated probationary federal employees who were terminated. The justices were responding to the Trump administration’s emergency appeal of Alsup’s ruling
The court’s order involved a technical legal assessment of the right, or standing, of several nonprofit associations to sue over the firings. Supreme Court Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson, who dissented, said they would have kept the judge’s order in place.
The groups who filed the lawsuit argued that the Trump administration violated the Constitution’s separation of powers clause and that OPM had lacked “the constitutional, statutory, or regulatory authority to order federal agencies to terminate employees in this fashion that Congress has authorized those agencies to hire and manage.”
“Notwithstanding this lack of legal authority, OPM ordered federal agencies throughout the nation, including in this District, to wipe out their ranks of probationary employees without any regard to applicable statutes,” said their complaint, filed in February.
The Trump administration lawyers, in their emergency petition to the Supreme Court, said that the district judge had acted unconstitutionally.
The judge’s “extraordinary reinstatement order violates the separation of powers, arrogating to a single district court the Executive Branch’s powers of personnel management on the flimsiest of grounds and the hastiest of timelines,“ lawyers for the government wrote. ”That is no way to run a government.”
Separately, a federal judge in Maryland overseeing a similar lawsuit brought by 19 states ruled that the Trump administration did not follow laws regarding mass terminations of federal employees.
That order was overturned this past week by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in a 2-1 decision.
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner is not only predicting a big war cycle but a depression coming by the end of 2025 and into 2026. It’s not caused by the Trump tariffs; it’s just part of the cycle that Nenner follows. When does this big downturn start? Nenner explains, “In the next few months . . . and the end of this year will be a down year. 2026 will also be a down year. It’s going to be very serious. I wrote last year I expect the S&P to go down to 4,000. So, from 6,200 to 4,000 if you are in bad stocks, you could lose 50% of your money, and to get that back, you have to make 100% on what is left of your money. Then we can have a bounce and go lower again. If you look at the list of brokers, 99% are positive. They were talking about the S&P going to 6,800, and then they changed their minds when it came down.”
Nenner is predicting a down year for the stock market this year, but look out in 2026. Nenner says, “It will be much worse in 2026 because the cycles in 1928 and 1929 are in the same position as 2025 and 2026.”
Can it shoot through 4,000 on the S&P? Nenner says, “Most definitely, I think so, yeah . . . we expect a bounce from there before it goes down again.”
Beyond that, Nenner has long called for a DOW at 5,000. It’s nearly 39,000 today. Nenner says, “I calculated it at 5,000, yes, and I have not calculated it for the S&P.”
That is pretty bearish, and before people pooh-pooh what Nenner is saying, listen to his logic on this subject. Nenner explains, “Let’s take one simple assumption. If there is a big war between China and Tiawan, do you think the market goes up? Do you think there is a chance of it – 50/50? So, there is a 50/50 chance only based on this idea the markets are not going to do well. . . . Of course, China wants to take over Tiawan. . . . There is no history that it does not belong to China. . . . If US gets in a war with China, it will lose. . . US lost 15 out of 15 war games in simulated war with China.”
Nenner still likes gold for the long term and has been predicting it’s rise. On silver, Nenner says, “Silver is behind, but starting in May, we expect silver to start catching up—finally.”
Nenner thinks interest rates are still in a long-term trend up, but there can be pullbacks. Nenner also thinks the US dollar is going to be okay and will not fall much more—for now. By the way, Nenner says he is up 40% so far in 2025.
harveyorganblog.com 
