APRIL 24/GOLD CLOSED UP $54.90 TO $3337.10 WHILE SILVER WAS DOWN A TINY ONE CENT TO $33.54//PLATINUM WAS UP $2.55 TO $976.20 WHILE PPALLADIUMW AS UP $18.10TO $952.60//A GOOD COMMODITY REPORT ON COPPER//BIG TROUBLE AGAIN BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN AFTER 26 TOURISTS WERE MURDERED: INDIA IS THREATENING TO CUT OFF WATER SUPPLIES TO BADLY NEEDED PAKISTAN//TROUBLES PERSIST BETWEEN CHINA AND USA RE TARIFFS AND WE HAVE A MUST MUST READ ARTICLE ON CHINESE DEMISE WITH THE TARIFFS////ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES/SYRIA VS ISRAEL UPDATES//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE: RUSSIA POUNDS KIEV LAST NIGHT//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS RE ROBT KENNEDY/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS, EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS/ KEY COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM MICHAEL EVERY//USA DATA RELEASES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 111 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 5 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 100 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 23 20 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 7 709 C BARCLAYS 7 905 C ADM 12 991 H CME 13
TOTAL: 149 149 MONTH TO DATE: 64,268
MONTH TO DATE: 64,119
jpmorgan stopped: 0/149
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 149 NOTICES FOR 14,900 OZ 0.4634 TONNES
total notices so far: 64,268 contracts for 6,426,800 OR 199.90 tonnes)
FOR APRIL
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3097 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 15.485 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $54.90 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.14 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.01 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.471 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 6806 CONTRACTS TO 153,729 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $0.61 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA MAMMOTH SIZED GAIN OF 8,479 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 1673 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WEDNESDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE BUT THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 774 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A HUGE 1673 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 774 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THURSDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE SIZED 8479 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.61.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS OF THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ (0 MILLION OZ). THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ARE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THUS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAVE A TOTAL OF 4.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON TWO OCCASIONS. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A HUGE 774 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.65) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN PRICE, AND WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 8479 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUGE 1673 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.735 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4.00 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK
STANDING FOR APRIL INCREASES TO 19.655 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (1673 CONTRACTS)/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 774 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 417 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19 DAYS, total 17,703 contracts: OR 88.515 MILLION OZ (932 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 88.515 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 88.515 MILLION OZ///
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6678 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 1673 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1673 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 15.655 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
NEW STANDING APRIL: 19.655 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (774 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE WEDNESDAY TRADING.
WE HAD 32 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.160 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6678 OI CONTRACTS TO 458,673 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 2566 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (6678 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $124.55 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. LAST WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES (CME CORRECTED// MAYBE?) TO WHICH WE ADD FOR APRIL ITS INITIAL 700 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES AND FRIDAY APRIL 4: 250 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR .777 TONNES + MONDAY APRIL 7 NEW ISSUANCE OF .8709 TONNES/ + APRIL 9 ‘S TOTAL OF 484 EX. FOR RISK FOR 48,400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES/NEW TOTAL AND FINALLY APRIL 14 EX FOR RISK OF 30,000 OZ OR.6220 TONNES AND THEN TODAY APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES// ;NEW EX FOR RISK 7.776 TONNES TO WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NEW QUEUE JUMP OF 131 CONTRACTS OR 13,100 OZ (0.4070 TONNES). THUS STANDING FOR GOLD/APRIL DELIVERY MONTH IS 200.152 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES OF QUEUE JUMP) + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 207.926 TONNES
/NEW STANDING FOR APRIL; 200.152 TONNES + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 207.926 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $124.55 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2549 OI CONTRACTS (7.92 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AND NOW FOR OUR FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS. WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4179 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 458,673//NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2549 CONTRACTS WITH 6678 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4129 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2549 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED AND CRIMINAL 2934 CONTRACTS ISSUED.ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI COMEX AND TOTAL WAS DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION!~
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4179 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 6678 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2549 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL 200.152 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES OUR 0.4070 TONNES QUEUE JUMP) AND THIS FOLLOWS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 7.776 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 207.926 TONNES.
//NEW STANDING APRIL: 200.152 TONNES + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK ON 6 OCCASIONS = 207.926 TONNES
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION + ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS DESPITE HAVING: 1)A $124.55 COMEX PRICE LOSS WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 2549 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ALL OF IT DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE RAID/./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (4129 CONTRACTS)///GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2934 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 60,333 CONTRACTS OR 6,033,300 OZ OR 187.66 TONNES IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3175 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN19 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 187.66 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 187.66 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 187.66 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6806 CONTRACTS OI TO 153,729 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1673 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1673 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1673 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 6806 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1673 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8479 CONTRACTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.61 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 42.395 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.93 PTS OR 0.03%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 162.86 PTS OR 0.74%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 170.52 OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.61%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2895 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2887/ Oil DOWN TO 63.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.70 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED.
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED6678 CONTRACTS TO 458,673 DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH LOSS IN PRICE OF $124.55 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4127 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A ZER0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ OR NIL TONNES. SO FAR THIS MONTH WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 6 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL STANDS AT 7.776 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST TWO PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.
DETAILS ON APRIL COMEX MONTH
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2549 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH OF APRIL CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A LOT LARGER THAN FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 2934 CONTRACTS
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 207 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 219 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1.2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL .… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4129 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /APRIL 4129 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4129 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 17 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4129 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6678 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH LOSS IN PRICE OF $124.55 FOR WEDNESDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOWER OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX!
T.A.S. ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A GOOD SIZED 2934 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S THESE PAST FEW MONTHS,, THE FED HAS BEEN EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. DURING OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK, A HUGE RAID WAS ORDERED BY THE FED WITH END OF THE MONTH TRADING ( FEB 25 THROUGH FEB 28) AS THE GOLD PRICE GOT HAMMERED A BIT WITH ONLY THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD LOWERING! . AND ,FOR MARCH, WE HAD+ ANOTHER 5 DAY MEGA ISSUANCE BUT CORRESPONDING MEGA RAIDS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT WEDNESDAY MARCH 17, THE 38,393 T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD!
THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH AND APRIL.
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON FEB 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR//MONTH END SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE JANUARY OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING AND AGAIN WITH FEBRUARY OPTION EXPIRY MONTH. HALF WAY THROUGH THE JANUARY COMEX MONTH, THE CROOKS ISSUED FIVE CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF T.A.S KNOWING THAT THEY WERE GOING TO INITIATE HUGE RAIDS ON OUR METALS. THEN THEY ISSUED IN LATE FEB, ANOTHER 5 CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ ISSUANCES. AND THEN, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN COMEX HISTORY WE WITNESSED THREE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF MEGA HUGE 30,000 + T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUANCES: JANUARY, FEB AND MARCH. WE HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A MEGA CONSECUTIVE 30,000 CONTRACT T.A.S FOR APRIL.
STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (207.926 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 4 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
STANDING FOR GOLD: 200.152 TONNES + 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 207.926 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 207.926 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.776 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
COMEX GOLD TRADING/APRIL CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $124.55/ /)/AND SURPRISINGLY THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY AS THEY WERE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE $3,400 AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS THEY SUCCEEDED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO STOP THE PENETRATION OF OUR $3,400 DOLLAR GOLD BARRIER AS IT IS NOW TRADING WELL BELOW THAT AT $3318 PER OZ AS I WRITE THIS. ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD) THIS PAST MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /APRIL TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCE
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
NOW APRIL, ISSUES ITS 6TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 600 CONTRACTS OR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK/APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 FOR 7.776 TONNES OF GOLD!
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES//NEW TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 7.776 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
STANDING FOR GOLD NOW FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 200.152 TONNES +(7.776 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =207.926 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS APRIL DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FIRST DAY NOTICE;
WE HAVE GAINED A TINY SIZED TOTAL OF 0.05 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL FIRST RECORDED AT 166.964 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCES FOR 7.776 TONNES.
ALSO TODAY WE RECORD ANOTHER 131 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 13100 OZ OR 0.4070 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD OUR 7.776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY OF 200.152 TONNES AND THUS STANDING FOR GOLD FOR APRIL IS NOW 207.926 TONNES, THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED!
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $124.55
WE HAD 2566 CONTRACTS REM,OVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2549 CONTRACTS OR 254,900 0Z (7.92 TONNES)
2 entries a) Out of Brinks 546,567.000 oz (17,000 kilobars) b) Out of JPMorgan enhanced: 137,669.900 oz (344 London good delivery bars)
total withdrawal: 684,236.900
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRIES
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
we have 0 customer entries
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today
149 notice(s) 14900 OZ 0.4634 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
81 contracts 8100 OZ 0.2519 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
64,268 notices 6,426,800 oz 199.90 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
TOTAL WEIGHT; 0 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
we have 0 customer entries
we have 0 customer deposit entry
0 ENTRIES: 0 DEPOSIT
total deposit 0 OZ nil tonnes
NIL
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
2 entries a) Out of Brinks 546,567.000 oz (17,000 kilobars) b) Out of JPMorgan enhanced: 137,669.900 oz (344 London good delivery bars)
total withdrawal: 684,236.900 oz or 21.28 tonnes tonnes_
adjustments: 5 dealer to customer
a)Ashai: 41,673.132 oz
b) Brinks 215,752.355 oz
c) JPMorgan: 675.171 oz
d) Loomis 64,237.698 oz
e) Malca: 3,472.308 oz
total of gold transferred out of dealer to customer: 325,810.664 oz or 10.13 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL
THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAD A LOSS OF 347 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 230. WE HAD 478 CONTRACTS FILED YESTERDAY. THUS WE GAINED 131 CONTRACTS OR 13,100 OZ (.4070 TONNES) AS WE EXPERIENCED ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DESIRED TO TAKE PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER HERE. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. LAST FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6.1619 TONNES REPRESENTED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS HIGHEST RECORDED WAS AT 5.90 TONNES.
MAY GAINED 295 CONTRACTS UP TO 6403 CONTRACTS WHICH IS A SHOCKER AS NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA WITH THAT MAMMOTH LOSS???? AND WE ARE LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE???. MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND WE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRONG DELIVERY MONTH EVEN THOUGH IT IS AN OFF MONTH!
JUNE LOST 7912 CONTRACTS TO 342,439. JUNE WILL STILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH
We had 149 contracts filed for today representing 14,900 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 100 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 149 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (64,268 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (230 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (149 x 100 oz per contract) equals 6,434,900 OZ OR 200.152 TONNES
to which we add our 6 exchange for risk issuances for April of 7.776 tonnes
= 207.926 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (64,268 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of APRIL (230 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (149 x 100 oz) which equals 6,434,900 OZ OR 200.152 TONNES + 7.776 tonnes ex for risks = 207.926 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.: 207.926 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL IS FOLLOWING SUIT..
i) out of Delaware: 3000.000 oz ii) Out of HSBC 310,124.800 oz iii) Out of Loomis 40,368.440 oz
total withdrawal: 353,493.240 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 199.954million oz/497.740oz million or 40.16%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 159.627 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 497.740Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2025 OI: 34 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 30 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 34 CONTRACT WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 170,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS WERE WILLING TO WAIT FOR DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER HERE
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 4079 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 42,342 CONTRACTS. MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING THIS MONTH.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 98 CONTRACTS UP TO 2831 CONTRACTS.
JULY GAINED 9682 CONTRACTS UP TO 88,571
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 32 or 0.160 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 122,139 mega t.a.s. release//
AND NOW APRIL DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3129 X5,000 oz = 15.645 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (34) AND the number of notices served upon today (32 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL 2025 contract month: (3129) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL(34) minus number of notices served upon today (32)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL contract month equating to 15.655 MILLION OZ . WE MUST NOW ADD OUR 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON MONDAY MARCH 31 AND TODAY APRIL 4/NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 19.655 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 19.655 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 159.627million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
APRIL9 WITH GOLD UP $83.50 TODAY// MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.171 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.23 TONNES
APRIL8 WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.78 TONNES
APRIL3 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.85 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
APRIL2 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.37 TONNES
APRIL1 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.38 TONNES
MARCH 31 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.36 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.07 TONNES
MARCH 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 20.08 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.51 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 952.471 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
APRIL9 WITH SILVER UP $0.96 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.104 MILLION
APRIL8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447,421 MILLION
APRIL3 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.138 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.830 MILLION
APRIL2 WITH SILVER UP 0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .364 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.968 MILLION
APRIL1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 0.91000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.092 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.422 MILLION
MARCH 27 WITH SILVER UP $.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 13.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.883 MILLION
MARCH 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.04 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.728 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.234 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 452.471 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2, EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
3. C Powell and Gata dispatches
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 219
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//COPPER
Breaking Down Copper Trade In Charts Amid Noisy Trade War, IMF Downgrade
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 05:45 AM
The ongoing trade war is poised to deliver a negative shock to US growth, prompting the International Monetary Fund to slash its 2025 forecast earlier Tuesday. This gloomier outlook has sharpened our focus on the once high-flying industrial metals market—now showing signs of weakness—particularly the copper market.
Goldman analyst Adam Gillard provided clients with a snapshot of current conditions in the copper market, highlighting tight physical supply in China and continued strength in domestic demand.
However, Gillard cautioned that ongoing global industrial production weakness and declining Chinese exports—driven by the deepening trade war—could tip the market into surplus.
The analyst outlined four micro data points on the copper markets for clients to better gauge sentiment:
1. US cathode imports: YTD imports from BL data 408k MT implying an “over-import” of ~100k MT vs market expectations of ~300k MT (by June). If this run rate continues LME should tighten despite the likely tariff related demand shock.
2. Scrap: US scrap spreads remain under pressure as rising discounts erode the CME premium (US scrap is priced off CMX). March exports unchanged sequentially despite ARB strength; we don’t have April export data yet but this will be key given lower US exports (FY production ~542k MT contained) were key to the bull thesis.
3. Chinese demand: Ostensibly strong; YTD demand +10% due to production strength (from increased smelter capacity), seasonally adjusted stock draws (in part due to tariff related tolling exports) and strong net imports (despite deeply negative SHFE / LME import arb). Think this figure inflated by SMM production numbers (base affect) but a strong number nonetheless.
4. Positioning: Although our CTA model is running close to max short LME net spec at 28k is above the Aug24 low of 16k, and China appear to be still be running long on Shanghai (due to strong domestic demand).
The question remains whether copper bulls like Kostas Bintas, Trafigura Group’s former co-head of metals and now with Mercuria Energy Group, and/or Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie (former Goldman boss of commodities) are still bullish on the industrial metal—or if the trade war has delayed their thesis of much higher prices.
LME Copper…
. . .
END
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.93 PTS OR 0.03%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 162.86 PTS OR 0.74%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 170.52 OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.61%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2895 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2887/ Oil DOWN TO 63.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.70 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED.
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2895 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2887 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 0.93 PTS OR 0.03%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 162.86 PTS OR 0.74%
2. Nikkei closed UP 170.52 PTS OR 0.49%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.12// EURO RISES TO 1.1384 UP 55 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.318//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.40…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4680/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.5885 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.127%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.311
3j Gold at $3338.75 Silver at: 33.48 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 29 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.71
3m oil into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.40// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.318% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8297 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9400 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.348 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.795 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.828 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.32
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5825 UP 2 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.232 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.839 DOWN 1 PTS
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop On Tariff Concerns As Dollar Slid
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 08:27 AM
It’s risk-off price action this morning, with US equity futures lower, rates rallying across the curve, macro credit opening softer, while the USD trades broadly lower. The two-day rally in US stocks fizzled amid mixed Trump signals on China tariffs as the president floated a fresh levy timeline while simultaneously denying easing efforts and Beijing called for full rollback of all US duties. As of 8:00am S&P futures slipped -0.3% as China maintained a defiant stance over tariffs imposed by Trump, but were off session lows as investors continue to live headline to headline; Nasdaq futures dropped 0.2% with all Mag7 names in the red; NVDA (-1.5%), TSLA (-1.6%), and AAPL (-1.2%) are leading the losses. With Trump reigniting tariff volatility, IBM warning on federal cuts and China denying trade talks entirely, the rotation out of US risk remains intact. Europe was mixed, Real Estate (+1.16%) and Autos (+0.71%) outperforming but Banks (-0.76%) and Travel (-0.69%) lagged. Overnight, China responded to the recent headlines regarding “US-China talk”: Beijing pointed out that “there are absolutely no negotiation on the economy and trade between China and the US and called to cancel all the unilateral measures on China. Meanwhile Trump downplayed the idea of millionaire tax rate, one that some Republicans sees as a way to pay for the economic package. Bond yields are lower and USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 4.5bp, 4.8bp, 3.3bp lower. The dollar extended its decline (-0.56%), with gold climbing (+1.3%) as investors hedge against prolonged US policy risk. VIX is flat (+0.28%), MOVE dipped (-1.48%) and USYC2Y10 (+1.6%) suggesting caution is returning despite the bounce in crude (+0.74%) copper (+0.57%) and gold (+1.4%). Flows are risk-off: SPY -$1.98B, QQQ -$689M and IWM -$614M, while GLD picked up another +$643M and XLU +$109M. Looking ahead today, we have durable good orders, initial and jobless claims, existing home sales, as well as non-voter Kashkari speaking.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks fall (Tesla -0.6%, Nvidia -0.3%, Meta -0.5%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Alphabet -0.2%, Microsoft -0.06%). IBM slumped 6.8% after 1Q results failed ease investor concerns. Chipotle fell 3.6% after the Mexican restaurant chain lowered its full-year outlook after quarterly sales declined for the first time in almost five years. Comcast fell 3% after reporting first-quarter losses of pay-TV and broadband customers that exceeded analysts’ estimates, a reflection of the growing competition from streaming companies and wireless providers. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Alaska Air (ALK) tumbles 6.5% after the carrier’s 2Q forecast for adjusted earnings per share trailed the average analyst estimate.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) climbs 3% after the medical device maker boosted its sales forecast for the full year.
Hasbro (HAS) gains 6% after the toymaker posted 1Q profit that beat estimates.
Impinj (PI) climbs 17% after the semiconductor device company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive revenue forecast.
Procter & Gamble (PG) falls 1.8% after the consumer products company cut its core earnings per share growth forecast for the full year.
Robert Half (RHI) tumbles 15% after the staffing services company reported first-quarter EPS that missed the average analyst estimate and noted that US trade policy is weighing on business confidence.
ServiceNow (NOW) rallies 8% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
Southwest Air (LUV) drops 4% after the carrier said it is not reiterating its 2025 or 2026 Ebit guidance as a result of weakening consumer spending and “macroeconomic uncertainty.”
Texas Instruments (TXN) rises 9% after the chipmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls 4% after the farm-store chain reported sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Stocks are struggling to extend Wednesday’s global rally, which was spurred by signs Trump is rethinking the most aggressive elements of his stances on trade and the Federal Reserve. The market moves underscore how investors are grappling to keep up with pronouncements from officials in the administration and frequent back-and-forth by Trump on his tariffs. Bessent tempered some of the optimism over that development, as he said the US was not looking to unilaterally lower tariffs and that a full trade deal could take two to three years. China, in turn, said Thursday that the US should revoke all unilateral tariffs and that Washington needs to show sincerity if it wants to hold trade negotiations.
“In terms of geopolitical risk, there’s a chance that we have reached a bottom, even if that’s not necessarily the case for markets,” said Francois Antomarchi, a fund manager at Degroof Petercam asset management. “Trump has touched the limits of what he can inflict on corporate America. That being said, there’s always a possibility he starts acting on another political front and triggers more volatility.”
Overnight, we continued to see mixed messages on trade negotiations, with President Trump saying last night that China may receive a new levy rate in two to three weeks, while China’s Foreign Ministry denied both countries are in talks and said the US should revoke all unilateral tariffs. Also had reports that the US is considering reducing certain tariffs targeting the auto industry although Trump said he wasn’t. CNBC reported that EU officials have warned that there’s still a lot of work that needs to get done before a trade deal can be reached with the US. Japan is hoping to finalize an agreement around the Group of Seven summit in June, however, they are likely going to resist Trump efforts to form trade bloc against China.
“You’re just seeing conflicting statements and noise coming from the US, where the overall narrative is just all over the place,” said Peter Kinsella, head of foreign-currency strategy at Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA in London. “It’s impossible to trade.”
Deutsche Bank strategists were the latest to slash their year-end S&P 500 target by 12%, citing the blow to US companies from tariffs. While the new target of 6,150 points leaves 14% upside from Wednesday’s close, it means the index will only recover losses sustained since its February peak. Up until this change, the Deutsche Bank team had one of the most bullish views for the benchmark.
“With the potential impact of the announced tariffs large and likely to fall disproportionately on US companies, we lower our S&P 500 EPS estimate for 2025 from $282 to $240,” the strategists wrote in a note, adding that the consensus view is at risk of further downgrades.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 0.4% with bank, retail and technology shares posting the largest declines.Real Estate (+1.16%) and Autos (+0.71%) outperform but Banks (-0.76%) and Travel (-0.69%) lag. Germany’s IFO Survey was better (for both current and expectations) helping push the euro higher. Here are the biggest movers on Thursday:
Galderma shares climb as much as 7.9% after the Swiss dermatology company reaffirms its core Ebitda margin forecast for the full year, which RBC flags as positive given it includes the impact of US tariffs
Beijer Ref shares gain as much as 9.8% to touch a one-month high, after the Swedish industrial cooling and ventilation firm posted strong earnings. Analysts praised the company’s solid organic growth
Indivior shares gain as much as 8.1% after the UK drugmaker posted earnings. Jefferies welcomed the 1Q beat and reiterated guidance, with expectations for a second-half rebound driven by Sublocade support
Belimo rises as much as 10% after the Swiss manufacturer of heating, ventilation and air conditioning upwardly revises its guidance for the full year. Analysts note particular strength in US data center demand
Inchcape shares plummet as much as 17%, marking their worst drop since 2008, after the automotive distributor posted a drop in organic sales and added a caveat to its guidance as tariffs inject more uncertainty
Kering shares fall as much as 6.9% following a sales miss which analysts said showed that its key Gucci brand continues to struggle. The update raised doubts that the French luxury group can bounce back in 2H
BNP Paribas shares dropped 2.2%, making it one of the worst performing banks in Europe, after the French lender reported a drop in first-quarter net income despite record result from equities trading
Nokia shares fall as much as 5.8% after the telecom equipment firm reported weaker-than-expected 1Q earnings and said reaching the top end of its guidance now appears more challenging
Dassault Systemes shares slide as much as 9.7%, to the lowest intraday since 2020. The software company issued a mixed first-quarter report, as softness in licenses driven by broader macro uncertaint
Worldline shares slide as much as 8.8% after the payments firm removed its previous full-year guidance, citing management’s limited tenure and macro-related uncertainty
Husqvarna shares fall as much as 7.7%, the most since April 7, after the Swedish garden and outdoor equipment firm reported weak earnings and announced its CEO would depart
Thales shares fall as much as 6.1% after the French defense company’s orders were softer than expected in the first quarter — according to Jefferies. JPMorgan highlights some weakness in non-defense divisions
EssilorLuxottica shares fall as much as 3% after the Ray-Ban maker’s earnings fell in line with expectations, not enough to push the outperforming stock any higher as macro headwinds marred the update
Earlier in the session, Asian stock rally took a breather on Thursday as investors digested the latest commentary from the Trump administration on its tariff plan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged lower after a five-day run of gains. Shares in Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong fell. Stock benchmarks in Japan bucked the trend to gain about 1%, buoyed by carmakers on news that the US is considering whether to reduce certain tariffs targeting the auto industry. While signs that President Donald Trump is easing up on his tough stance against China and the Federal Reserve drove a relief rally globally on Wednesday, the momentum cooled after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on a timely resolution to the US-China trade war. A reduction in US import tariffs is “conditional on China coming to the table and perhaps then after a two to three-year period we could see a bilateral trade deal in the works,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. “For now, the collective takes the news flow to mean that we’ve seen the worst of tariff policy.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, snapping a two-day winning streak after China also demanded that the US revoke all unilateral tariffs; ongoing tensions underscored the risks stemming from aggressive US tariffs. The euro rises 0.6%, helped by stronger-than-expected German IFO data although Rehn’s comments saw it pullback from the highs. The Norwegian krone is leading G-10 currency gains against the dollar, rising 1.2%. The Canadian dollar underperforms, albeit still up 0.3%. USD/JPY fell as much as 0.8% to 142.31.
“The dollar rebound this week doesn’t represent much more than a squeeze on speculative short dollar positions generated by the ‘no intention to fire Powell’ headlines and signs of back peddling on some of the tariff items,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. “It doesn’t change the negative big picture view of the dollar”
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 3bps to 4.35%, sliding back toward a 4.24% touched on Wednesday, its lowest since April 8. Treasuries hold modest curve-steepening gains in early US trading, led by German government bonds which are also higher, having extended gains after ECB’s Rehn said they shouldn’t rule out a larger interest-rate cut. German 10-year borrowing costs fall 3 bps. Gilts are also higher, albeit lagging peers. Bund curve steepened as traders priced in additional ECB easing. The US session includes a 7-year note auction, last coupon sale until May 5, following good demand for Wednesday’s 5-year offering.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.6% to $62.60 a barrel. Gold jumps $50 to around $3,336/oz. Bitcoin falls 1% to below $93,000.
On today’s calendar, we have Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods at 8:30am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and Kansas City Fed Manf at 11am. Fed’s Kashkari speaks at 5pm. We get another slew of EPS and $44bn 7yr UST auction at 1pm.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.3%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
DAX -0.5%
CAC 40 -0.6%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.35%
VIX +1 points at 29.49
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1225.41
euro +0.5% at $1.137
WTI crude +0.8% at $62.74/barrel
Top Overnight News
Factories in China have begun slowing production and furloughing some workers as the trade war unleashed by Trump dries up orders for products ranging from jeans to home appliances. With most Chinese goods now facing US Duties of at least 145%, some factory owners say American customers have cancelled or suspended orders, forcing them to cut production. FT
US House Republicans will seek a $150bln Pentagon spending hike as part of their party-line mega bill: Politico.
Trump said he might call Jerome Powell and reiterated the Fed chair is making a mistake by not lowering rates. Cleveland President Beth Hammack said slowing the pace of the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff may let it continue for longer. BBG
Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson signal opposition to a new 40% tax bracket for those earning $1M+, likely putting a “nail in the coffin of the idea.” Politico
BofA Institute Total Card Spending (Week-to-Apr-19th): +3.1% (Y/Y) (prev. 2.3%); said easter continues to be a major retail event for the US
Trump is planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, on another trade war climbdown. The move would exempt car parts from the tariffs that Trump is imposing on imports from China. Exemptions would leave in place a 25% tariff Trump imposed on all imports of foreign made cars and a separate 25% levy on parts would also remain and is due to take effect from May 3. FT
Marco Rubio refuted a Politico story that reported the White House may lift sanctions on Russian energy assets as part of a Ukraine peace deal. Overnight, Russia hit Kyiv with one of the heaviest aerial strikes this year. BBG
China on Thursday said that there were no ongoing discussions with the U.S. on tariffs, despite indications from the White House this week that there would be some easing in tensions with Beijing. “If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem … it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong told reporters. CNBC
Japanese bonds and stocks are set to draw the biggest combined monthly foreign inflows on record, adding to signs global funds are seeking alternatives to US assets. BBG
EU officials warn that there’s still a lot of work that needs to get done before a trade deal can be reached with the US. CNBC
The ECB will probably have to cut rates further and shouldn’t exclude a larger reduction, Governing Council member Olli Rehn said. BBG
Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said uncertainty is a big issue in the economy and is causing businesses to pause, while she added that an incredibly high bar exists for the Fed to step in and they have not seen the need for Fed market intervention. Hammack also commented that recent market troubles were a risk transfer and that markets were functioning, as well as noted it is not a good time to be pre-emptive amid policy uncertainty and reiterated now is a good time for monetary policy to take its time.
Tariffs/Trade
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said the nation must face up to the new situation of the US tariff increase on China; need to increase policy supply and solve practical problems.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on US trade talks, said “As far as I know, China and the US have not consulted or negotiated on the issue of tariffs, let alone reached an agreement,” via Global Times.
China’s MOFCOM said any content about China-US economic and trade talks is “groundless and has no factual basis” If US really wants to resolve the issue, it should life all unilateral tariff measures against China.
China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Gou said China and the US are not yet in talks on tariffs; will fight tariff war “if we have to” Respect is condition for any talks to happen. Tariffs disrupt TWO rules, and harm people of all countries.
China’s MOFCOM held a meeting with foreign firms to discuss the impact of US tariff increases on the investment and operations of foreign enterprises in China; committed to further opening-up, with policies that are stable, consistent, and predictable.
US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump said if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China. Furthermore, Trump commented that they don’t want cars from Canada and that car tariffs from Canada could go up, as well as noted that they are working on a deal with Canada and will see what happens.
It was earlier reported that US President Trump is to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs in which he was said to be planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks, according to FT.
White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.
PBoC Governor Pan said in Washington that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, while he added that unilateralism and protectionism have no way out and are not in the interests of anyone. Furthermore, Pan said China will adhere to opening up and firmly supports free trade rules and the multilateral trading system.
Chinese embassy in the US posted a statement from an official saying “Our doors are open, if the US wants to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the US wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work.”
China Customs will no longer supervise goods and articles included in the management of drugs, veterinary drugs, and medical devices, while it will no longer supervise import and export of microbial agents for environmental protection with these goods to no longer be supervised as special items entering and leaving China.
Japan Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th, while it was also reported that the US told Japan it cannot give special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, according to NHK citing multiple Japanese government sources.
Taiwan’s representative to the US said Taiwan is willing to increase purchases of weapons and energy from the US to reduce its trade deficit.
White House said regarding the EU fine on Meta (META) and Apple (AAPL) that novel forms of economic extortion will not be tolerated.
Swiss Economy Minister said he held a productive meeting with USTR Greer to discuss bilateral trade relations and is looking forward to future exchanges and continued collaboration.
Chile’s President said the best way to respond to this trade war is not with high-sounding statements, while they are not going to respond with retaliation and are going to respond with greater integration. Furthermore, he said they must continue working hard to facilitate customs processes and promote investments to improve logistics.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street – the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in mining stocks and tech, with gold producers buoyed by a rebound in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but gradually pared most of the gains following firmer Services PPI data from Japan and after a report that the US told Japan it cannot give it special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the mixed signals from the US as a report noted the White House was mulling cutting China tariffs by around half to de-escalate the trade war although officials declared they are not considering something unilaterally. Furthermore, President Trump stated it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and if they don’t have a deal, they will set the tariff but said they are having daily talks with China.
Top Asian News
PBoC to sell CNY 600bln of 1yr medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans on Friday April 25th.
China issued its new market access “Negative List” in which the number of items in the negative list was reduced to 106 from 117, while China’s 2025 negative list for market access removed eight national access restrictions and partially liberalises eight national measures including for telecommunications services, TV production, pharmaceuticals, internet information services for drugs and medical devices, and forest seed imports.
South Korea Information Protection Agency said DeepSeek transferred user information and prompts without permission, according to Yonhap.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) opened with modest losses, but sentiment gradually deteriorated as the morning progressed, to display a clear negative bias. European sectors opened mixed but now display a bit more of a negative picture. Real Estate takes the top spot, alongside strength in Energy; although upside is very modest. Tech is the clear underperformer today, given the risk-tone and as traders digest the latest earnings from Dassault Systemes, which slumped after downgrading its 2025 margin outlook. The banking sector is pressured by post-earning losses in BNP Paribas, whilst the Luxury sector is hit after poor Kering results. US equity futures (ES -0.6% NQ -0.8% RTY -0.6%) are entirely in the red, in-fitting with the broader risk tone; the NQ lags, with sentiment in the Tech sector hit after IBM (-8% pre-market) results. Focus now turns to US Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and earnings from the likes of Alphabet and Intel.
Top European News
ECB’s Rehn said should not rule out a larger rate cut; risks are beginning to materialise There are few good arguments to pause rate cuts. Defence outlays will not have much impact on medium-term inflation.
FX
DXY has pulled back with the USD lower vs. all peers after gaining yesterday on account of hopes on the trade front and more conciliatory language from President Trump re Fed Chair Powell. In terms of the latest state-of-play, Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump added that if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks. Note, China this morning said they are not yet in trade talks with the US.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD and the best performer across the majors with the EUR benefitting from its status as the most liquid alternative to the USD. On the trade front, not a great deal has changed for the EU with the Trump administration focusing more on the likes of India and China. Elsewhere, ECB speak has continued to lean towards suggesting that tariffs will weigh on inflation in the Eurozone. German IFO data exceeded expectations but failed to have any material sway on the EUR given the headwinds facing the nation. EUR/USD is currently stuck on a 1.13 handle and within yesterday’s 1.1308-1.1440 range.
USD/JPY pulled back from the 143.00 territory after rallying yesterday owing to the positive risk appetite and stronger buck, while recent data showed firmer Services PPI from Japan. On the trade front, Japanese Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th. USD/JPY has delved as low as 142.56 but is still some way clear of Wednesday’s trough at 141.49.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers. Newsflow out of the UK remains on the light side. However, on the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal. BoE’s Lombardelli is both due later. Cable is currently stuck at the top end of a 1.32 handle and within Wednesday’s 1.3234-1.3339 range.
Antipodeans are both a touch firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD with little in the way of newsflow from Australia or New Zealand. As such, direction for both will likely be dictated by trade developments and the broader risk tone.
Barclays said its passive month-end rebalancing model shows strong dollar buying against all majors.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2098 vs exp. 7.3111 (Prev. 7.2116).
Fixed Income
US paper is higher alongside downside in stocks and following a choppy session yesterday which saw T-notes ultimately settle lower. In terms of the latest state-of-play for trade, Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump added that if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks. Note, China this morning said they are not yet in trade talks with the US. For today’s docket, data releases include US durables and weekly claims figures, whilst Kashkari is due to deliver remarks – a 7yr note offering is also due. Jun’25 USTs currently sit towards the bottom-end of Wednesday’s 110.18+ to 111.18+ range.
Bunds are firmer on the session after a session of losses on Wednesday on account of the upbeat risk tone that was triggered by optimism on the trade front and Trump remarks re Powell. ECB speak has continued to lean towards suggesting that tariffs will weigh on inflation in the Eurozone, albeit there is a high level of uncertainty surrounding forecasts. ECB’s Rehn has suggested that the GC should not rule out larger cuts than 25bps. German IFO data exceeded expectations but failed to have any material sway on prices given the headwinds facing the nation. Jun’25 Bunds are currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 131.11-131.93 range with the 10yr yield @ 2.477% vs. yesterday’s 2.454-2.518% range.
UK paper is sitting just above the unchanged mark after a choppy session yesterday which saw initial gains (triggered by the UK DMO issuance adjustment and soft UK PMI data) reversed following the strong risk tone in the market. On the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal. A strong UK 2043 outing had little impact on Gilts, and currently trade within Wednesday’s 92.34-93.29 range.
Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO said it has not gone massively to buy stocks but individual portfolio managers have been able to buy more “if they wanted to”; have not changed view on USTs.
A firmer session in the crude complex this morning following yesterday’s slump in prices on account of the OPEC+ discord after Kazakhstan said it cannot lower oil output and prioritises domestic interest over the cartel’s. WTI resides in a USD 62.11-63.00/bbl range while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 65.95-66.81/bbl range.
Once again a mixed picture across precious metals with spot gold now the gainer whilst spot silver and palladium falter. Little new to add aside from the ongoing theme of tariff uncertainty, with investors rushing back into the yellow metal following two days of heavy losses. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,305.37-3,367.69/oz parameter.
Base metals are trading modestly firmer on the back of a softer Dollar but upside remains capped by lingering trade uncertainty. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,352.03-9,413.80/t range at the time of writing.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israel’s army carries out a series of bombing operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Ukrainian air defence units were active around Kyiv and witnesses reported several explosions and drones in the air, while the second largest city of Kharkiv was also under missile attack with explosions heard.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Ukraine’s PM Shmyhal and Finance Minister Marchenko, while he reaffirmed US dedication to secure peace and emphasised the need to conclude technical talks and sign an economic partnership between the US and Ukraine as soon as possible.
Geopolitics: Other
Russia said it may resume nuclear tests in response to similar measures from Washington, via Al Arabiya.
China’s Military said it monitored US warship’s transit in Taiwan Strait on Apr 23.
Apr 12 Continuing Claims, est. 1868.5k, prior 1885k
8:30 am: Mar P Durable Goods Orders, est. 2%, prior 1%
Mar P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
Mar P Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%
Mar P Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
8:30 am: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.12, prior 0.18
10:00 am: Mar Existing Home Sales, est. 4.13m, prior 4.26m
Mar Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -3.05%, prior 4.2%
Central Bank speakers
5:00 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Discussion
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’m on my way to Luxembourg this morning. It’s always a very pleasant trip apart from the fact that it’s the one time a year I go on a small twin propellor plane. Last time in extreme turbulence I think I clung onto my colleague Mark Wall as we came into land. Fortunately for Mark the weather looks pretty calm today!
Markets are a little bumpier in Asia this morning and reversing a little after a relentlessly bullish run since Easter. Yesterday saw a further positive batch of headlines on the trade war with Trump saying “We’re going to have a fair deal with China”, as the WSJ reported that the China tariffs could be slashed down towards 50-65%. That would be less than half the 145% rate that’s in place right now, and that led to a lot of excitement that US policy would move in a more predictable direction from here. In fact we’re moving back closer towards Trump’s campaign pledges of a 10% universal baseline tariff and a 60% tariff on China, albeit 2 weeks into a 90-day reprieve on the more aggressive reciprocal tariffs.
The latest positive developments collectively led to a huge sigh of relief in markets, and meant several assets unwound their tariff-driven moves. Equities climbed as a result, with the S&P 500 (+1.67% after +2.51% Tuesday) posting consecutive gains of above 1% for the first time since November 6, the day after Trump’s election win. Indeed, it now means the S&P has pared back more than half of its losses since the closing low on April 8. And in Europe it was much the same story, and the STOXX 600 (+1.78%) also posted a solid advance, having now risen by nearly 10% (+9.98%) since its closing low on April 9. That said, the S&P 500 is still -5.20% down since April 2 and volatility remains high as the index gave up about half of yesterday’s +3.44% peak intra-day gain as investors struggled to gauge just how much tariff reversal was likely, with Bessent saying there was no unilateral offer to cut tariffs on China. So we’re not quite out of the woods yet.
We’ll have to see what happens from here, but a large part of the optimism has come about because investors think the US administration will relent more. That view was supported by the WSJ’s report yesterday, which suggested the China tariffs could be slashed lower. So that seemed to back up Trump’s own comments on Tuesday evening that the China tariffs would “come down substantially”, and that “we’re going to be very nice and they’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens.” The WSJ report also floated the idea of a tiered approach, saying that one possibility was for a 35% tariff on items that weren’t a national security threat, and a 100% tariff on strategic items. Shortly after yesterday’s close the FT also reported that the US administration was planning to exempt car parts from some of the most onerous tariffs, avoiding stacking 20% China fentanyl and 25% steel and aluminium levies on top of the 25% auto tariffs.
For US Treasuries, the tariff relief and the latest Powell comments led to a further flattening of the curve. Long-term Treasuries continued to recover, with the 10yr Treasury yield down -1.9bps to 4.38% and the 30yr yield (-5.5bps) seeing an even bigger decline to 4.82%. On the other hand, the 2yr yield rose +5.3bps to 3.87%, its highest since April 11 as investors dialed back prospects for near-term Fed cuts. A rate cut was 57% priced by the June meeting as of yesterday’s close, down from 78% on Monday.
The dollar index (+0.94%) strengthened for a second day running, continuing to pick up from its three-year low on Monday after Trump’s critical comments about Powell. And although it might seem anomalous that the currency is strengthening even as long-term interest rates were falling, the moves demonstrated that investors were becoming more optimistic on US assets more broadly, with greater confidence in their safe haven status again. So that reversed the moves we saw after Liberation Day, when bonds and the currency were selling off simultaneously, in a manner reminiscent of the UK in late-2022 when Liz Truss was Prime Minister.
Elsewhere, the other big focus yesterday was on the April flash PMIs from around the world, which offered an initial indication on how the global economy was reacting to the tariffs. Overall, they showed a clear but modest deterioration, and in the US at least, they were still above the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction. So that helped to alleviate fears about an imminent recession, and the broader market rally demonstrated that investors are still sceptical that we’re heading for a sharp downturn. In terms of the numbers themselves, the US composite PMI was down to 51.2, which was the weakest print since December 2023. Meanwhile the Euro Area composite PMI just about remained in expansionary territory at 50.1, but that was also the weakest print since December.
More broadly, there were several signs across different asset classes that the recent market stress was easing. In particular, the VIX index (-2.12pts) closed at 28.45, its lowest level since Liberation Day itself on April 2. Another was US HY spreads (-26bps) which also reached their tightest level since Liberation Day, at 371bps. At the same time, yesterday also saw investors move out of several assets that had done incredibly well since the Liberation Day announcements. For instance, gold prices (-2.73%) fell back to $3,288/oz, having closed at a record high on Monday. In addition, the Swiss Franc was the worst-performing G10 currency, weakening -1.41% against the US Dollar. And European sovereign bonds also struggled significantly, with 10yr bund yields (+5.5bps) rising back up to 2.49%, alongside smaller moves for 10yr OATs (+2.5bps) and BTPs (+2.1bps).
As mentioned at the top, this week’s rally is reversing a bit in Asia with the Hang Seng (-1.26%) the biggest underperformer with the CSI (-0.08%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%) also seeing slight losses. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.46%) is also edging lower as South Korea’s GDP data showed an unexpected contraction for the first quarter (more below). However the Nikkei is higher (+0.82%) alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.60%). S&P 500 (-0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.24%) futures are also lower with 10yr USTs -2.3bps lower trading at 4.36% as I type.
Early morning data showed that South Korea’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter (-0.2%), shrinking for the first time since the second quarter of 2024 and missing forecasts for a gain of 0.1%. The weak data will increase calls for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to cut interest rates again as soon as next month as policymakers worry about the consequences of Trump’s tariff policies.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany, and in the US we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for March, and the preliminary durable goods orders for March. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Kashkari, the ECB’s Nagel, Lane, Simkus and Rehn, and the BoE’s Lombardelli.
2b) European opening report
Downbeat sentiment with Dollar lower whilst USTs benefit, Alphabet results due – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 06:16 AM
US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already.
US President Trump said if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China.
European bourses are in the red amid the negative risk-tone; US futures also edge lower ahead of Alphabet results.
USD is lower vs. all peers, EUR benefits from its liquidity premium.
USTs and European paper benefit from the risk tone; Treasuries await a 7yr auction.
Gold resumes upside amid ongoing trade uncertainty; crude modestly in the green following Wednesday’s pronounced downside.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting. Speakers include ECB’s Nagel, Simkus, Rehn, Lagarde & Lane, Fed’s Kashkari, BoE’s Lombardelli, Supply from the US.
Earnings from Alphabet, Intel, American Airlines, Freeport, Southwest Airlines, PepsiCo, Dow Chemical, Merck, Valero, PG&E, T-Mobile, Vale.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
TRADE
TARIFFS/TRADE
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said the nation must face up to the new situation of the US tariff increase on China; need to increase policy supply and solve practical problems.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on US trade talks, said “As far as I know, China and the US have not consulted or negotiated on the issue of tariffs, let alone reached an agreement,” via Global Times.
China’s MOFCOM said any content about China-US economic and trade talks is “groundless and has no factual basis” If US really wants to resolve the issue, it should life all unilateral tariff measures against China.
China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Gou said China and the US are not yet in talks on tariffs; will fight tariff war “if we have to” Respect is condition for any talks to happen. Tariffs disrupt TWO rules, and harm people of all countries.
China’s MOFCOM held a meeting with foreign firms to discuss the impact of US tariff increases on the investment and operations of foreign enterprises in China; committed to further opening-up, with policies that are stable, consistent, and predictable.
US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump said if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China. Furthermore, Trump commented that they don’t want cars from Canada and that car tariffs from Canada could go up, as well as noted that they are working on a deal with Canada and will see what happens.
It was earlier reported that US President Trump is to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs in which he was said to be planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks, according to FT.
White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.
PBoC Governor Pan said in Washington that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, while he added that unilateralism and protectionism have no way out and are not in the interests of anyone. Furthermore, Pan said China will adhere to opening up and firmly supports free trade rules and the multilateral trading system.
Chinese embassy in the US posted a statement from an official saying “Our doors are open, if the US wants to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the US wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work.”
China Customs will no longer supervise goods and articles included in the management of drugs, veterinary drugs, and medical devices, while it will no longer supervise import and export of microbial agents for environmental protection with these goods to no longer be supervised as special items entering and leaving China.
Japan Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th, while it was also reported that the US told Japan it cannot give special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, according to NHK citing multiple Japanese government sources.
Taiwan’s representative to the US said Taiwan is willing to increase purchases of weapons and energy from the US to reduce its trade deficit.
White House said regarding the EU fine on Meta (META) and Apple (AAPL) that novel forms of economic extortion will not be tolerated.
Swiss Economy Minister said he held a productive meeting with USTR Greer to discuss bilateral trade relations and is looking forward to future exchanges and continued collaboration.
Chile’s President said the best way to respond to this trade war is not with high-sounding statements, while they are not going to respond with retaliation and are going to respond with greater integration. Furthermore, he said they must continue working hard to facilitate customs processes and promote investments to improve logistics.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) opened with modest losses, but sentiment gradually deteriorated as the morning progressed, to display a clear negative bias.
European sectors opened mixed but now display a bit more of a negative picture. Real Estate takes the top spot, alongside strength in Energy; although upside is very modest. Tech is the clear underperformer today, given the risk-tone and as traders digest the latest earnings from Dassault Systemes, which slumped after downgrading its 2025 margin outlook. The banking sector is pressured by post-earning losses in BNP Paribas, whilst the Luxury sector is hit after poor Kering results.
US equity futures (ES -0.6% NQ -0.8% RTY -0.6%) are entirely in the red, in-fitting with the broader risk tone; the NQ lags, with sentiment in the Tech sector hit after IBM (-8% pre-market) results. Focus now turns to US Durable Goods, Jobless Claims and earnings from the likes of Alphabet and Intel.
Roche (ROG SW), -0.5%, better-than-expected results and affirmed its outlook
Nestle (NESN SW), -0.6%, beat on its Organic Revenue figure and highlighted CHF 0.7bln in cost savings for 2025.
FX
DXY has pulled back with the USD lower vs. all peers after gaining yesterday on account of hopes on the trade front and more conciliatory language from President Trump re Fed Chair Powell. In terms of the latest state-of-play, Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump added that if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks. Note, China this morning said they are not yet in trade talks with the US.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD and the best performer across the majors with the EUR benefitting from its status as the most liquid alternative to the USD. On the trade front, not a great deal has changed for the EU with the Trump administration focusing more on the likes of India and China. Elsewhere, ECB speak has continued to lean towards suggesting that tariffs will weigh on inflation in the Eurozone. German IFO data exceeded expectations but failed to have any material sway on the EUR given the headwinds facing the nation. EUR/USD is currently stuck on a 1.13 handle and within yesterday’s 1.1308-1.1440 range.
USD/JPY pulled back from the 143.00 territory after rallying yesterday owing to the positive risk appetite and stronger buck, while recent data showed firmer Services PPI from Japan. On the trade front, Japanese Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th. USD/JPY has delved as low as 142.56 but is still some way clear of Wednesday’s trough at 141.49.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers. Newsflow out of the UK remains on the light side. However, on the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal. BoE’s Lombardelli is both due later. Cable is currently stuck at the top end of a 1.32 handle and within Wednesday’s 1.3234-1.3339 range.
Antipodeans are both a touch firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD with little in the way of newsflow from Australia or New Zealand. As such, direction for both will likely be dictated by trade developments and the broader risk tone.
Barclays said its passive month-end rebalancing model shows strong dollar buying against all majors.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2098 vs exp. 7.3111 (Prev. 7.2116).
US paper is higher alongside downside in stocks and following a choppy session yesterday which saw T-notes ultimately settle lower. In terms of the latest state-of-play for trade, Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump added that if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks. Note, China this morning said they are not yet in trade talks with the US. For today’s docket, data releases include US durables and weekly claims figures, whilst Kashkari is due to deliver remarks – a 7yr note offering is also due. Jun’25 USTs currently sit towards the bottom-end of Wednesday’s 110.18+ to 111.18+ range.
Bunds are firmer on the session after a session of losses on Wednesday on account of the upbeat risk tone that was triggered by optimism on the trade front and Trump remarks re Powell. ECB speak has continued to lean towards suggesting that tariffs will weigh on inflation in the Eurozone, albeit there is a high level of uncertainty surrounding forecasts. ECB’s Rehn has suggested that the GC should not rule out larger cuts than 25bps. German IFO data exceeded expectations but failed to have any material sway on prices given the headwinds facing the nation. Jun’25 Bunds are currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 131.11-131.93 range with the 10yr yield @ 2.477% vs. yesterday’s 2.454-2.518% range.
UK paper is sitting just above the unchanged mark after a choppy session yesterday which saw initial gains (triggered by the UK DMO issuance adjustment and soft UK PMI data) reversed following the strong risk tone in the market. On the trade front, UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal. A strong UK 2043 outing had little impact on Gilts, and currently trade within Wednesday’s 92.34-93.29 range.
Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO said it has not gone massively to buy stocks but individual portfolio managers have been able to buy more “if they wanted to”; have not changed view on USTs.
A firmer session in the crude complex this morning following yesterday’s slump in prices on account of the OPEC+ discord after Kazakhstan said it cannot lower oil output and prioritises domestic interest over the cartel’s. WTI resides in a USD 62.11-63.00/bbl range while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 65.95-66.81/bbl range.
Once again a mixed picture across precious metals with spot gold now the gainer whilst spot silver and palladium falter. Little new to add aside from the ongoing theme of tariff uncertainty, with investors rushing back into the yellow metal following two days of heavy losses. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,305.37-3,367.69/oz parameter.
Base metals are trading modestly firmer on the back of a softer Dollar but upside remains capped by lingering trade uncertainty. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,352.03-9,413.80/t range at the time of writing.
French Consumer Confidence (Apr) 92.0 vs. Exp. 91.0 (Prev. 92.0)
German Ifo Expectations New (Apr) 87.4 vs. Exp. 85 (Prev. 87.7); Ifo Current Conditions New (Apr) 86.4 vs. Exp. 85.5 (Prev. 85.7); Ifo Business Climate New (Apr) 86.9 vs. Exp. 85.2 (Prev. 86.7)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s Rehn said should not rule out a larger rate cut; risks are beginning to materialise There are few good arguments to pause rate cuts. Defence outlays will not have much impact on medium-term inflation.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
BofA Institute Total Card Spending (Week-to-Apr-19th): +3.1% (Y/Y) (prev. 2.3%); said easter continues to be a major retail event for the US
Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said uncertainty is a big issue in the economy and is causing businesses to pause, while she added that an incredibly high bar exists for the Fed to step in and they have not seen the need for Fed market intervention. Hammack also commented that recent market troubles were a risk transfer and that markets were functioning, as well as noted it is not a good time to be pre-emptive amid policy uncertainty and reiterated now is a good time for monetary policy to take its time.
US House Republicans will seek a USD 150bln Pentagon spending hike as part of their party-line mega bill, according to sources cited by Politico.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel’s army carries out a series of bombing operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian air defence units were active around Kyiv and witnesses reported several explosions and drones in the air, while the second largest city of Kharkiv was also under missile attack with explosions heard.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Ukraine’s PM Shmyhal and Finance Minister Marchenko, while he reaffirmed US dedication to secure peace and emphasised the need to conclude technical talks and sign an economic partnership between the US and Ukraine as soon as possible.
OTHER
Russia said it may resume nuclear tests in response to similar measures from Washington, via Al Arabiya.
China’s Military said it monitored US warship’s transit in Taiwan Strait on Apr 23.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trading just under USD 92k; Ethereum also lower and holds just above USD 1.7k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street – the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US.
ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in mining stocks and tech, with gold producers buoyed by a rebound in the precious metal.
Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but gradually pared most of the gains following firmer Services PPI data from Japan and after a report that the US told Japan it cannot give it special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the mixed signals from the US as a report noted the White House was mulling cutting China tariffs by around half to de-escalate the trade war although officials declared they are not considering something unilaterally. Furthermore, President Trump stated it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and if they don’t have a deal, they will set the tariff but said they are having daily talks with China.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC to sell CNY 600bln of 1yr medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans on Friday April 25th.
China issued its new market access “Negative List” in which the number of items in the negative list was reduced to 106 from 117, while China’s 2025 negative list for market access removed eight national access restrictions and partially liberalises eight national measures including for telecommunications services, TV production, pharmaceuticals, internet information services for drugs and medical devices, and forest seed imports.
South Korea Information Protection Agency said DeepSeek transferred user information and prompts without permission, according to Yonhap.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Services PPI (Mar) 3.10% (Prev. 3.00%, Rev. 3.20%)
South Korea GDP QQ (Q1 A) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
South Korean GDP YY (Q1 A) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.2%)
2c) Asian opening report
APAC stocks mixed despite the strong US handover, focus remains on China talks – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 01:31 AM
US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already.
US President Trump said if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China.
White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street – the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US.
Overnight, US equity futures marginally eased, DXY slightly softened, spot gold and 10yr UST futures rebounded from the prior day’s troughs.
European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 2.8% on Wednesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting; Speakers including ECB’s Lagarde & Lane, Fed’s Kashkari, BoE’s Lombardelli & Riksbank’s Seim; Supply from Italy, UK & US; Earnings from Alphabet, Intel, American Airlines, Freeport, Southwest Airlines, PepsiCo, Dow Chemical, Merck, Valero, PG&E, T-Mobile, Vale, Eni, Anglo American, Weir, BNP Paribas, Sanofi, Orange, STMicroelectronics, Air Liquide, Renault, Carrefour, Michelin, SGS, Roche & Nestle.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks gained with sentiment supported after President Trump recently softened his tone on Fed Chair Powell and amid positive rhetoric regarding China and US trade with the WSJ reporting that the White House is considering cutting China tariffs to de-escalate the trade war and that tariffs likely to be between 50-65%, although no final decision has been made.
Nonetheless, some of the gains were then pared after officials noted the White House is not considering cutting tariffs on China unilaterally and that it would be part of negotiations which are yet to take place.
SPX +1.67% at 5,376, NDX +2.28% at 18,693, DJI +1.07% at 39,607, RUT +1.53% at 1,919.
US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump said if they don’t have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China. Furthermore, Trump commented that they don’t want cars from Canada and that car tariffs from Canada could go up, as well as noted that they are working on a deal with Canada and will see what happens.
It was earlier reported that US President Trump is to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs in which he was said to be planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks, according to FT.
White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.
PBoC Governor Pan said in Washington that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, while he added that unilateralism and protectionism have no way out and are not in the interests of anyone. Furthermore, Pan said China will adhere to opening up and firmly supports free trade rules and the multilateral trading system.
Chinese embassy in the US posted a statement from an official saying “Our doors are open, if the US wants to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the US wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work.”
WSJ’s Lingling Wei said there is an opportunity right now to get the US and China talking, while she noted how a delegation of senior Chinese officials are in Washington next week for IMF and World Bank meetings.
China Customs will no longer supervise goods and articles included in the management of drugs, veterinary drugs, and medical devices, while it will no longer supervise import and export of microbial agents for environmental protection with these goods to no longer be supervised as special items entering and leaving China.
Japan Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th, while it was also reported that the US told Japan it cannot give special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, according to NHK citing multiple Japanese government sources.
Taiwan’s representative to the US said Taiwan is willing to increase purchases of weapons and energy from the US to reduce its trade deficit.
UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal, while she added that UK borrowing data reinforces the importance of controlling the public finances.
White House said regarding the EU fine on Meta (META) and Apple (AAPL) that novel forms of economic extortion will not be tolerated.
Swiss Economy Minister said he held a productive meeting with USTR Greer to discuss bilateral trade relations and is looking forward to future exchanges and continued collaboration.
Chile’s President said the best way to respond to this trade war is not with high-sounding statements, while they are not going to respond with retaliation and are going to respond with greater integration. Furthermore, he said they must continue working hard to facilitate customs processes and promote investments to improve logistics.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed Beige Book stated economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Furthermore, just five Districts saw slight growth, three Districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four Districts reported slight to modest declines.
Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said uncertainty is a big issue in the economy and is causing businesses to pause, while she added that an incredibly high bar exists for the Fed to step in and they have not seen the need for Fed market intervention. Hammack also commented that recent market troubles were a risk transfer and that markets were functioning, as well as noted it is not a good time to be pre-emptive amid policy uncertainty and reiterated now is a good time for monetary policy to take its time.
US House Republicans will seek a USD 150bln Pentagon spending hike as part of their party-line mega bill, according to sources cited by Politico.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street – the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US.
ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in mining stocks and tech, with gold producers buoyed by a rebound in the precious metal.
Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but gradually pared most of the gains following firmer Services PPI data from Japan and after a report that the US told Japan it cannot give it special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the mixed signals from the US as a report noted the White House was mulling cutting China tariffs by around half to de-escalate the trade war although officials declared they are not considering something unilaterally. Furthermore, President Trump stated it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and if they don’t have a deal, they will set the tariff but said they are having daily talks with China.
US equity futures marginally eased back overnight after the prior day’s relief rally petered out owing to the conflicting signals from the US on tariffs.
European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 2.8% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY slightly softened overnight as it took a breather following the prior day’s advances that saw the DXY briefly approach just shy of the 100.00 level after President Trump quashed the idea of firing Fed Chair Powell and amid tariff-related updates including reports that the White House is looking at cutting tariffs on Chinese imports by around half. Nonetheless, the tailwinds for the dollar have since petered out as trade uncertainty lingered with the White House Press Secretary noting that that there will be no unilateral reduction in tariffs and that China needs to make a deal, while Trump also suggested that car tariffs on Canada could go up which effectively nullified an earlier report that he was planning to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs.
EUR/USD rebounded from this week’s lows but remained beneath the 1.1400 level with price action in the single currency predominantly driven as a counterparty to recent dollar swings, while ECB speakers did little to shift the dial.
GBP/USD was little changed with price action indecisive in quiet trade and despite comments from BoE Governor Bailey who warned that they have to take the risk to growth from tariffs very seriously.
USD/JPY pulled back from the 143.00 territory after rallying yesterday owing to the positive risk appetite and stronger buck, while recent data showed firmer Services PPI from Japan.
Antipodeans were uneventful amid a lack of tier-1 data releases and the somewhat mixed risk appetite in Asia.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2098 vs exp. 7.3111 (Prev. 7.2116).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures rebounded from the prior day’s trough following the recent whipsawing and curve flattening after President Trump softened his tone on Powell but continued to call for lower rates.
Bund futures regained some composure after declining yesterday alongside the heightened risk appetite, while participants look ahead to German Ifo data.
10yr JGB futures clawed back opening losses albeit with demand constrained by firmer Services PPI data and ultimately mixed results from the latest 2yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were contained after the prior day’s losses owing to bearish supply-side headlines including reports that some OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated output increase for June.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said Kazakhstan is committed to constructive work with OPEC+ and is fulfilling its OPEC+ obligations, while the official added that Kazakhstan has an ongoing dialogue with OPEC+ on oil production and seeks mutually acceptable solutions with OPEC+.
Spot gold rebounded overnight amid a softer dollar and reclaimed the USD 3,300/oz level as demand returned following the 2-day slide from record highs seen earlier in the week.
Copper futures were lacklustre with price action indecisive amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin trickled lower throughout the session and returned to beneath the USD 93,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China issued its new market access “Negative List” in which the number of items in the negative list was reduced to 106 from 117, while China’s 2025 negative list for market access removed eight national access restrictions and partially liberalises eight national measures including for telecommunications services, TV production, pharmaceuticals, internet information services for drugs and medical devices, and forest seed imports.
South Korea Information Protection Agency said DeepSeek transferred user information and prompts without permission, according to Yonhap.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Services PPI (Mar) 3.10% (Prev. 3.00%, Rev. 3.20%)
South Korea GDP QQ (Q1 A) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
South Korean GDP YY (Q1 A) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.2%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel’s army carries out a series of bombing operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said the US goal of Iran not having nuclear weapons is achievable but noted impractical and illogical demands will cause problems.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian air defence units were active around Kyiv and witnesses reported several explosions and drones in the air, while the second largest city of Kharkiv was also under missile attack with explosions heard.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine and European states ‘presented their inputs at talks’ and he hopes ‘joint work’ will lead to lasting peace, while he added that emotions ran high on Wednesday.
US President Trump posted on Truth that Ukrainian President Zelensky is boasting on the front page of WSJ that “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea”, while Trump added that “This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia…He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country.” Trump added that “…We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE”.
US Special Envoy Kellogg said there were positive talks in London with Ukraine. It was separately reported that President Trump’s admin did not feel that they were at a decisive point in the ongoing talks with Ukraine which led to Secretary of State Rubio cancelling his participation in Ukraine talks in London on Wednesday, according to sources cited by CNN.
UK Foreign Office said Ukraine talks in London made significant progress on reaching a common position on the next steps. All parties reiterated their strong support for US President Trump’s commitment to stopping the killing and achieving a just and lasting peace.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Ukraine’s PM Shmyhal and Finance Minister Marchenko, while he reaffirmed US dedication to secure peace and emphasised the need to conclude technical talks and sign an economic partnership between the US and Ukraine as soon as possible.
US Envoy Witkoff is expected to meet Russian President Putin on Friday, according to Axios.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE Governor Bailey said fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth and that the UK is an open economy so US relations with the rest of the world matter, while they do have to take the risk to growth from tariffs very seriously.
ECB President Lagarde said levies are probably more disinflationary than inflationary and the net effect of tariffs is still uncertain.
ECB’s Chief Economist Lane said inflation should settle around the target in the absence of new shocks.
ECB’s Knot said a US tariff of 25% on imports from Europe would lower Euro area growth by about 0.3% and more with retaliation, while tariffs would leave a persistent decrease in output. Knot added that in the near term, inflation might well fall faster than in the March projections due to Euro appreciation, energy prices and the negative impacts of uncertainty and tariffs on growth, as well as noted that over the medium term, there is still a risk that disruptions in global supply chains will put upward pressure on prices.
ECB’s Muller said it is too soon to say whether June will be a cut or a pause, while he added monetary policy is no longer restrictive and rates may need to be cut below neutral on trade.
ECB’s Villeroy said tariff impact on Euro-zone inflation is more uncertain and it is appropriate that the ECB is likely to cut further this year, while he said the inflation impact may be on the downside overall.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
China Dismisses Reports Of US Trade Progress As “Fake News,” Demands Removal Of Unilateral Tariffs Before Negotiating Table
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Wednesday’s equity market rollercoaster—sharp pops and drops—was driven by conflicting reports on headlines surrounding potential U.S.-China trade talks.
Markets surged after a Wall Street Journal report suggested President Trump considered cutting steep tariffs on Chinese imports. But sentiment quickly reversed when Reuters poured cold water on the claim. Further declines followed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified there had been “no unilateral offer from Trump” to reduce Chinese tariffs and that a trade deal could take two to three years to finalize.
In the overnight hours, China demanded Washington remove unilateral tariffs before engaging in trade talks and rejected the claim that any negotiations had progressed.
“The US should respond to rational voices in the international community and within its own borders and thoroughly remove all unilateral tariffs imposed on China, if it really wants to solve the problem,” Ministry of Commerce’s spokesman He Yadong told reporters at a regular briefing on Thursday in Beijing.
Yadong rejected any signs of progress in bilateral communications, indicating that “reports on development in talks are groundless.” He said Washington needs to “show sincerity” if both sides want to make a deal.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun also called any rhetoric coming from the Trump administration about deal progress “fake news” in a press conference.
The Trump administration’s softening stance—reported by the WSJ, which sent US equity markets higher early Wednesday—may signal a willingness by the US to de-escalate the trade war with Beijing in order to shift to the negotiating phase.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday: “Maybe we’ll make a special deal, and we’ll see what it will be. Right now, [the tariffs are] 145%, that’s very high.”
One day earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent told investors at a closed-door meeting: “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable, at 145% and 125%, so I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. We have an embargo now on both sides.”
Alfredo Montufar-Helu, senior adviser at The Conference Board’s China Center, told the Shanghai Morning Post that “news today confirms China has no intention to reach out first with a proposal of its own.”
“The impasse in negotiations is driven by a very simple dynamic; no side wants to bear with the political costs of being seen as capitulating to the other side,” Montufar-Helu explained.
According to Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, even if the negotiations between China and the US start immediately, reaching an agreement could take time, and mounting risks exist. The tariff war on both sides could soon unleash pain across global trade.
“It takes time for trade negotiations to proceed between the US and other countries. This means the tariffs will hit global trade and economies for at least several months. It is not clear to what extent inventory build-up and pre-loading of trade in the past few months will help to soften the immediate damage. The question now is how bad trade and other macro data will be in China, the US and other countries,” Zhiwei said.
Bloomberg reported last week that Beijing wants to see several things from Trump’s administration before trade talks begin, such as more respect and naming a point person for the dialogue.
Neither side has announced any upcoming bilateral trade meetings despite Trump’s announcement this week to ease tariffs potentially.
END
CHINA
A MUST MUST READ!!
“Our Export Orders Disappeared”: Chinese Factories Shutting Down, Laying Off Workers, FT Finds
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 01:45 PM
By now it has become abundantly clear (and if it isn’t, the openly biased media has certainly made it its purpose to highlight over and over) what the downside is to the US from Trump’s ongoing trade war against the world, but especially China: sliding markets, rising rates, dumping dollar. The economy has so far proven resilient, with hard data surprising to the upside for the past 2 months (perhaps as a result of pre-buying ahead of tariffs), even as sentiment (among Democrats) has crashed and inflation expectations (also among Democrats) have exploded (yet oddly those same Democrats aren’t rushing to spend all their hard-earned savings today instead of waiting a year from now when they are certain their purchasing power to be 6-10% lower). However, as Michael Every writes today, if what is now effectively a US-China trade embargo remains in place, the US economy “could see shortages on shelves within weeks and/or of price rises” and then, even if there is a tariff U-turn logistics would then be overwhelmed.
In short, we know what the pressure points in the US are. But what about China, and why has the media kept such a bizarre lid on reporting across the Pacific (besides the obvious, namely that in a Trump world, China, Democrats and the media are all aligned in seeking to tear down the US).
To answer this all important question – because stated simply, the first country that hits a max pain point will also be the one that loses the trade war first – we were one of the (very) few to take a closer look at how the sudden freeze in China’s exports to the US and their various supply chains is translating into a domestic economic impact, and found that several sectors of China’s economy are already in deep pain (see “Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates“).
Today, the FT picks up where we left off, and finds that factories across all of China have begun shutting down and furloughing workers “as the trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump dries up orders for products ranging from jeans to home appliances.”
As we first explained earlier this week, with most Chinese goods now facing US duties of at least 145%, or simply lacking the raw materials needed to process goods and sent them onward to the US, Chinese factory owners told the FT that American customers have cancelled or suspended orders, forcing them to cut production.
With about 15% of all Chinese exports last year going to the US…
… and with China increasingly transshipping billions of goods to the US using such (formerly) untariffed venues such as Vietnam…
…. it is not all surprising that as China’s largest trading partner halts most imports, pain would be pervasive. And it is: in interviews with the Financial Times and via dozens of social media posts, workers shared pictures of quiet production lines or factory suspension notices, highlighting how the tariffs are starting to bite.
According to workers who opened up to the FT, trade war had prompted the suspension of production for a week or more at plants making products ranging from shoe soles to jeans, electrical outlets and portable stoves.
Some factory owners said they were cutting overtime or weekend work.
Wang Xin, head of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, an industry group representing more than 2,000 Chinese merchants, said many of them were “extremely anxious” and had told factories and suppliers to halt or delay deliveries. This had prompted some factories to suspend production for one to two weeks, she said.
Three factory recruiters in Guangdong who work with manufacturers said more factories were cutting overtime and weekend work with only the most heavily dependent on American orders putting the whole factory on leave.
“Our export orders disappeared so we’ve temporarily stopped,” said a 28-year-old plastics factory worker in Fujian province, adding that production had been halted for a week so far.
Others are bracing for a much longer shutdown: executives at DeHong Electrical Products in Dongguan, Guangdong province, gave workers one month leave on minimum wage and said the factory was under “significant near-term pressure” after clients suspended orders.
“Management is working hard to find solutions, including expanding into new markets and optimising cost structures, so we can resume normal operations as soon as possible,” DeHong said in a notice seen by the Financial Times. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday, “good luck” finding a replacement market that will absorb all your US-based production.
The problem for China is that unlike the US, it has no centralized social safety net, so the longer the trade war continues and the more workers are furloughed – then fired – the progressively faster the situation will get.
Hangzhou Stellarmed, a company in Zhejiang province that makes endoscopy kits primarily for the US market, told full-time workers they could use the rest of April to find new jobs and provided them with access to a headhunting agency. Once again, good luck finding new jobs when on the margin, millions of export workers are about to be laid off everywhere.
“We don’t know how long this will last,” said Shi, the factory owner, who did not want to be identified by her full name. “We can only wait and see, there is nothing we can do.”
Similar anecdotes are prevalent across the country: plastic mould maker Dongguan Yuanguan Technology blamed the tariffs for forcing it to cancel all weekend overtime at its factory, according to a company notice and a worker.
A 26-year-old man in Zhejiang said the toy factory he worked at sold mostly to the US, forcing management to give workers about two weeks off. “It’s not easy at the moment,” he said, asking not to be named.
Needless to say, it is unclear how widespread the factory suspensions are, said Han Dongfang, founder of China Labour Bulletin, which closely tracks Chinese manufacturing and labour. “The rearrangement of China’s manufacturing sector will be a long-term process and workers will be sacrificed,” he said. Furthermore, the fact that any marginal pain will be amplified as trade war weakness will mean that Beijing will do everything in its power to prevent the full extent of the shutdowns from being revealed.
Meanwhile, China’s electronics supply chain – which employs tens of thousands of people – got a reprieve last week when Washington exempted smartphones along with some other electronics from the steepest tariffs. But domestic eletronics producers are bracing for the worst, expecting to be swept in the trade war along with the rest of their peers, and big tech companies and cities with large concentrations of exporters, such as Shenzhen and Dongguan, are rolling out support programs intended to “stabilize foreign trade”. Shenzhen last week unveiled subsidies for companies to participate in foreign trade shows and said it would expand export insurance to help cover cancelled US orders, among other policies. Yet again, good luck.
A manager at Ningbo Taiyun Electric said they had suspended production on April 12, but had since restarted reduced output of electric hair straighteners and curling irons. “We still have some orders from Europe, we’re trying to get more,” said the manager, who asked not to be named. “Hopefully the US will change its policies.” Because if it doesn’t, millions will end up unemployed; and with no short-term welfare state benefits to hold them over until the economy recovers, it could get very ugly… just as Trump expects it will.
Elsewhere, UBS’ Chief China Economist, Tao Wang thinks China still has a big output gap as its growth recovery has been weak, something which the nevertrump media also refuses to highlight. That’s why the Central Economic Work Conference last year said China has three priorities: 1) boost consumption, 2) support technology innovation and 3) defend the world trade order.
Regarding the trade war, it is a big demand shock to China happening now, but according to UBS China policy response will only happen later, if only so Xi does not telegraph weakness before Trump. This will drag China growth this year to only 3.4% y/y.
Tao thinks China will respond mainly with bazooka fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing will be in the secondary role, just as we predicted.
China, which reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1tn last year, has responded to Washington’s tariffs by imposing an extra 125 per cent levy on imports from the US. While Trump has repeatedly said he wants to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve trade issues, Beijing appears in no hurry to request a call between the two leaders… But when a procession of angry unemployed factory workers heads for Beijing, Xi will be running to dial the White House.
CHINA/USA
China Weaponizes Magnet Exports, Potentially Delaying Tesla’s Humanoid Robot Production
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 – 05:20 PM
China’s halt on a wide range of critical minerals and magnet exports in retaliation for U.S. tariffs has disrupted some of Elon Musk’s plans to build humanoid robots. The very act of Beijing choking off supplies of critical components highlights the urgent need to friendshore or reshore rare earths mining and refining, as well as advanced technology supply chains, if the U.S. hopes to maintain its dominance into the 2030s.
On Tuesday, Musk revealed during Tesla’s earnings call that plans to build humanoid robots had hit a snag due to Beijing’s ban on certain rare earth metals and magnets critical for the motors and actuators that power the robots.
Musk told investors that Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots have electric motors that operate in a confined space and require special magnets:
“That’s more affected by the supply chain, by basically China requiring an export license to send out anywhere with magnets, so we’re working through that with China.”
Musk warned that a shortage of magnets could slow down the production of Optimus robots.
That special, rare-earth magnet Musk was referring to is neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB). It’s crucial for powering the small, high-efficiency motors used in the robot’s joints and other movements.
China has a near-monopoly on NdFeB, controlling both the extraction and refinement of the rare earths needed to produce powerful magnets.
Public trade data compiled by counterparty and supply chain risk intelligence firm Sayari shows that Tesla appears to have sourced all of its NdFeB from Chinese suppliers, including Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan High Technology…).
Sayari finds that 40.63% of the latest shipments to Tesla originate from China…
Tesla’s Top Suppliers
The problem with most of the world’s rare earth metal supply chains based in China is that Beijing can weaponize its global monopoly against the U.S. This poses a national security threat to the U.S. because these metals are used by US companies producing robotics, drones, electric vehicles, clean tech, handsets, and many other products, as well as in F-35 stealth fighter jets and nuclear-powered submarines.
Tesla’s delay of the humanoid robot serial production plan in the U.S. is the clearest signal yet that America needs to friendshore or reshore these supply chains to produce the technologies of tomorrow and ensure dominance in the 2030s.
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
Professor: Migrants Cost Millions, Are Seeking ‘Revenge’ On Europe
Not only must Poland refuse mass migration due to the societal costs, but the country also simply cannot afford it. Due to this reality, there can be no compromise over mass immigration, says Polish professor and lawyer Witold Modzelewski, who works at the University of Warsaw.
In a conversation on the FMC27NEWS YouTube channel, Prof. Witold Modzelewski said he can provide a conservative estimate of how much each migrant costs Poland per day, which he said is 150 Polish zlotys (PLN), or €35 per day.
“If we chose an assimilation policy – assimilating those who choose us and we agree to have them here – then in today’s reality it is not just about mere food. After all, these people need to be provided with a place to stay…. they need to be covered by a state umbrella financing the so-called security services. If we were to assume the reality of today’s cost, it is an estimated PLN 150 per day. However, this is an underestimate,” said Prof. Modzelewski.
However, in other countries like Germany, these cost estimates are far higher, in part due to the higher cost of living.
Modzelewski may also not be factoring in social welfare, medical costs, integration courses, and education into his estimate.
🇵🇱 Migrants in Poland enjoy billiard and table tennis competitions to celebrate the International Day of Tolerance.
The men from countries like India, Iraq, Iran, and Sri Lanka then received free burgers, Belgian fries, and soft drinks at the asylum center in Lesznowola. pic.twitter.com/ddWMUo1ed0
As the professor pointed out, this amount concerns direct expenses, and there would also be indirect expenses.
“Who can we take from to finance it? There is no one to take from. Therefore, let’s put this problem aside as one we cannot afford and as one we will not participate in,” the professor stated.
He said that even if they can assume that Polish society would like to take on part of the costs of supporting migrants for humanitarian reasons, Poland cannot afford it.
Prof. Modzelewski emphasized that Poland bears no responsibility for the criminal colonial past of “Old Europe.” He pointed out that the people who are currently inhabiting Europe through generational transmission “want to take revenge.”
“Their rebellion is today, but the motive is the past. And we cannot participate in this,” said the professor.
“We have nothing in common with the colonial past of the old West and let’s not look for anything in common. If someone wants to drag us into collective responsibility for those crimes, for centuries of objective wrongs, then we have to say ‘no.”‘
Germany could send up to 70,000 migrants to Poland per year, according to a Polish MP.@DariuszMatecki filmed the new massive migrant center near the Polish border.
According to Polish publication Do Rzeczy, “although mainstream media does not show it, a wave of protests is growing in Poland against the transfer of illegal immigrants from culturally alien regions – Africa and the Middle East – from Germany to our country. The lack of consent of Poles to open borders for mass migration is clearly shown by all polls.”
Nina Jankowicz, the former head of Biden’s infamous Disinformation Governance Board, was “back with a vengeance.”
After the outcry over the board led to its elimination, Jankowicz did what many of the displaced disinformation experts have done: she peddled her dubious skills to Europeans and others like a wandering rōnin without a master.
Now, Jankowicz has appeared before one of the most anti-free speech bodies in the world — the European Union — to call upon those 27 countries to fight against the United States, which she called a world threat.
The European Union has become the global hub for censorship efforts and, after she departed from the government, Jankowicz made a beeline for Europe.
I have been a long critic of Jankowicz, who became an instant Internet sensation due to a musical number in which she sang “You can just call me the Mary Poppins of disinformation” in a TikTok parody of the song “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.”
After the Biden Administration reluctantly disbanded her board, she later moved to join a European group as a foreign agent to continue her work to block views that she considers disinformation.
The false portrayal of the United States as a lawless, autocratic nation no doubt thrilled the Europeans.
In announcing her heading a private disinformation group called the American Sunlight Project, Jankowicz used the same hysteria to attract donors, insisting that “Disinformation knows no political party. Its ultimate victim is our democracy.”
Of course, Jankowicz herself has been accused of disinformation that served one particular party.
The ultimate irony is that Jankowicz knows that she can count on many of us in the free speech community to support her right to spread such sensational and inflammatory information.
She has every right to trash this country and the results of the election.
Jankowicz has clearly found a home with globalists in Europe where our “Mary Poppins of Disinformation” is “practically perfect in every way”
A group of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists operating in a command and control center was struck by the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), the military announced on Wednesday.
The command center was embedded within an area that previously served as the “Jaffa” School in Gaza City.
IDF operations in northern Gaza
The IDF expanded operations across Gaza earlier this month, as the military took control of several areas in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, Rafah, and the Morag Axis.
This week, two female combat soldiers serving in the 414th Battalion were seriously wounded in the incident in which CWO G’haleb Sliman Alnasasra was killed in Gaza on Saturday.
An additional tracker was seriously wounded in the incident. According to Walla, CWO Alnasasra fell while helping the wounded female soldiers.
IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip. April 18, 2025. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF troops in the Yahalom unit, under the Northern Brigade in the 252nd Division, destroyed an underground tunnel 1.2 kilometers long and 20 meters deep in northern Gaza, the military announced last week.
The brigade’s soldiers found a weapons cache near the route, containing a stockpile of approximately 20 explosive devices, an anti-tank launcher, and additional weapons.
Additionally, the Israeli air force struck several terrorists an IDF drone identified planting explosives near the troops.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS
Egypt offers new ceasefire proposal aiming for five year Israel-Hamas truce – report
The proposal would involve the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for a mutually agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, the report said.
Egypt has allegedly prepared a new proposal for a hostage-ceasefire deal expected to be presented to Israel and Hamas by the end of the week, according to a Thursday report by the Saudi-owned channel Asharq News, citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the report, the new proposal will meet both Israel’s and Hamas’s demands in a “balanced” manner and will aim to establish a long-term truce between the sides that could potentially last between five and seven years.
To ensure a truce between the two parties, the agreement would involve guarantees from regional and international parties to “ensure the fulfillment of mutual obligation,” the report added.
The new proposal was prepared by Egypt in consultation and coordination with Qatar and the current US administration, the sources in the report claimed.
According to the sources, “once a framework agreement is reached, the ground situation will be restored and all military operations will be halted.”
A truck moves at the Rafah border crossing, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah, Egypt, February 18, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY)
“Humanitarian and relief aid will be introduced according to the international protocol,” the sources continued.
Hamas and Israel’s demands
The proposal would involve the release of all Israeli hostages held by the terror group in exchange for a mutually agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, the report said.
The report emphasized that the deal would be “contingent on an immediate and complete ceasefire, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the initiation of the Gaza reconstruction process, and the lifting of the blockade imposed since 2007.”
Israel, in return, would expect Hamas to declare its commitment to a five-year ceasefire and that the terror group would no longer have ruling control of the Gaza Strip, the source cited in the report said.
Israeli delegation to depart for hostage talks
The report comes as an Israeli delegation is expected to depart in the coming days for talks aimed at advancing a hostage deal, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday.
Sources informed on the matter told the Post that there has been no change in Hamas’s position regarding the deal.
Hamas has made it clear to mediators from Egypt and Qatar that “we will not agree to a deal that includes a temporary ceasefire.”
Israel has said it will only agree to a deal in which 10-11 hostages will be released for 45 days of ceasefire. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said Israel will not agree to cease the war, as Hamas demands.
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
ISRAEL HAMAS
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
HOUTHIS
IRAN
SYRIA/IRAQ
Iraqis Outraged By Visit Of Syrian Leader Jolani Over al-Qaeda Past
Safaa Rashid was barely an adult in 2005 when an explosion ripped through the Iraqi capital Baghdad, killing his 21-year-old cousin, a university student who was working part-time at an electrical goods shop in the city’s center. “A suicide bomber stormed the market and detonated his explosive belt, killing my cousin and dozens of innocent people in an instant,” said Rashid, now 38 and still living in Baghdad. “He was just at the beginning of his life.”
Safaa lost two other cousins that same year in blasts that were attributed to al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the armed group that would evolve into ISI, the Islamic State in Iraq (later just Islamic State), and is responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in Iraq and abroad.
One of those who joined AQI’s campaign at the time was a young Syrian named Ahmed al-Sharaa, who later would reappear in his homeland under the name Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and last year successfully overthrew President Bashar al-Assad to become Syria’s new ruler.
Although Sharaa has since disavowed his time in al-Qaeda [in terms of public rhetoric at least], his possible presence at an Arab League summit in Baghdad next month has provoked outrage from victims of AQI and its successors, as well as dozens of MPs who are trying to prevent his attendance. “Jolani is the face of terrorism,” said Rashid.
“He must be held accountable – I lost three cousins to his group’s violence…how can someone like this be welcomed as if he were an honoured guest?”
‘Premature’ meeting?
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said last week that he had formally invited Sharaa to attend the upcoming summit, which is scheduled to be held in Baghdad on May 17. The two also met in Qatar last week for the first time since the overthrow of Assad.
Although the Iraqi government had been one of the few in the region to continuously maintain relations with Sharaa’s predecessor, Iraq like many other Arab states appears to be trying to integrate post-Assad Syria diplomatically, possibly hoping to end the instability unleashed by the country’s 13-year war.
But the extension of the invitation has outraged many. Iraqi media reported that at least 50 MPs from Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah – two Iran-backed armed political factions that provided military support to Assad against Sharaa and other Syrian opposition groups – have filed criminal complaints in Iraqi courts against the Syrian president.
Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council has yet to take any official action and previously issued a statement saying that several complaint documents circulating on social media were fake and invalid.
Nevertheless, it has led Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s leader, Qais al-Khazali, to brand Sharaa’s invite “premature”, warning there could be a diplomatic incident between the “brotherly nations” should he be arrested. “In light of this, and in accordance with the principle of separation of powers, the decisions of the Iraqi judiciary must be adhered to and respected by all,” he wrote on X.
Abu Ali al-Askari, a senior Kataib Hezbollah figure, meanwhile described Sharaa as a “convict”.
Change of attitude
Sharaa travelled from Damascus to Baghdad in 2003 to join al-Qaeda shortly before the US-led invasion that toppled President Saddam Hussein. Though he has denied being close to the group’s leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, other outlets have claimed he quickly rose through the ranks to a senior position.
During the insurgency against US-led forces in Iraq, AQI was responsible for numerous sectarian atrocities across the country, triggered by the group bombing al-Askari Shrine in Samarra on 22 February 2006.
Zarqawi had earlier declared all-out war on Iraqi Shias, “wherever they are in Iraq”. Sharaa has argued his time in AQI was more about gaining fighting experience and defending Iraqis than building a caliphate or imposing al-Qaeda’s harsh variant of Islamic law.
“There was a massive Arab and Islamic response to the American intervention,” he told The Rest Is Politics podcast. He added that during his time in a range of US-run facilities, including the notorious Abu Ghraib prison, his attitude towards the conflict changed and he began to fall out with other al-Qaeda members over their support for overt sectarianism.
Iraqi Telegram accounts linked to pro-Iran groups have posted documents they say further implicate Sharaa in AQI’s actions, though they also suggested Sharaa was released from an Iraqi prison for lack of evidence.
Former ISIS terrorist Jolani who is now president of Syria was released from prison just days before the first colour revolution protests in Syria (March 3, 2011.)
He was arrested on May 14, 2005, by U.S. occupation forces in Iraq and held at Camp Bucca.
The Islamic Dawa Party, which held the prime ministership during the bulk of the AQI and ISI insurgency, also warned against inviting Sharaa to Iraq. Though they did not mention the prime minister by name, they said that anyone invited to the Arab League conference should have a “spotless” legal record both at home and abroad.
In a statement on Sunday, they also drew comparisons with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the outstanding arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court over the war in Gaza.
“The same should be done in Iraq towards those who have committed heinous crimes against its people, whatever the excuses, out of respect for Iraqi blood and in loyalty to the martyrs who gave their lives for the nation’s dignity and honour,” said the party.
‘A significant step’
Although many of Syria’s neighbours have tried to rebuild links with the country following Assad’s defeat, much of the international community has continued to be wary, not least after the recent outbreak of sectarian violence on the country’s west coast.
The violence in Latakia, which erupted after attacks by Assad loyalists on pro-government forces, has seen widespread killings of hundreds of members of the Alawi religious minority by armed groups. Sharaa condemned the killings and has sought to calm tensions through dialogue, but the attacks have again raised the spectre of sectarian violence and drawn parallels with the Sunni-Shia bloodshed that devastated Iraq in the mid-2000s.
Not everyone has opposed diplomatic meetings with Sharaa. A number of MPs have emphasised the need for dialogue between the two countries after decades of violence.
Khamis al-Khanjar, an MP and head of the Azem Alliance, welcomed the meeting in Qatar between Sudani and Sharaa. “This meeting represents a significant step toward enhancing Arab cooperation and promoting the principles of dialogue and joint action to address current challenges, rebuild bridges of trust and integration among our peoples, and serve the security and stability of our region,” he wrote on social media.
But with the pain of decades of bloodshed still fresh in the mind of many in Iraq, and with AQI’s descendents still wreaking havoc in parts of the country, the visit is likely to trigger further outcry.
“Inviting Sharaa to visit Baghdad just returned painful memories for victims’ families,” said Rashid. “Many of whom are still waiting for justice nearly two decades after the worst years and al-Qaeda attacks post-2003.”
end
SYRIA/ISRAEL
Syria wants peace with Israel under one condition, US congressman tells ‘Post’ – exclusive
In an exclusive interview with the ‘Post’, congressman Stutzman said Syria’s president said he was open to normalizing ties with Israel.
By AMICHAI STEINAPRIL 24, 2025 20:06Updated: APRIL 24, 2025 20:09
Republican Congressman Marlin Stutzman meets with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa.(photo credit: Courtesy of Marlin Stutzman)
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa told two Republican congressmen who visited Syria last week that he is open to normalizing relations with Israel, but under one condition, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
“President al-Sharaa said that he was open to the Abraham Accords, which would put them in good standing with Israel, other Middle Eastern countries, and of course, the United States,” Republican Congressman Marlin Stutzman said in an exclusive interview with The Post.
Stutzman met with the president in Damascus a few days ago. “He said there obviously has to be negotiations, and steps must be taken.”
Syria must remain unified, Sharaa tells US Congressman Stutzman
In the interview, Stutzman outlined the president’s conditions for normalization with Israel—chief among them that Syria must remain a unified and sovereign state and that there needs to be negotiations, and concrete steps taken.
“President al-Sharaa’s concerns are that the country of Syria would be divided up into regions. He didn’t want to see that happen. He wanted to see the country of Syria stay unified. He also mentioned that Israel’s encroachment near the Golan Heights must be addressed, and there should be no further bombings in Syria by Israel. I truly believe he is open to dialogue.”
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa seen with the background of Syrian and Israeli flags (illustrative) (credit: REUTERS/KHALIL ASHAWI, SHUTTERSTOCK)
Stutzman and Congressman Cory Mills of Florida were the first US lawmakers to visit Syria since the Assad regime was toppled a few months ago.
“There were signs in Damascus saying, ‘Make Syria Great Again.’ The Syrian people definitely admire President Trump,” Stutzman told The Post. He added, “I genuinely sensed a desire to engage in dialogue and potentially build a relationship with the United States.”
Rebuilding Syria will require a stable government, Stutzman tells Post
During their visit, the congressmen met with the Christian community, senior government officials, and toured sites where President Assad had previously bombed his own people. They also visited prisons where dissidents were detained, tortured, and executed. “The Syrian people are better off today than they were six months ago under Assad. I do think it’s possible to rebuild Syria, but it requires a stable government. First and foremost, the government must not work against its own citizens.”
The most intriguing meeting, according to the congressmen, was with President Ahmad al-Sharaa himself. In his interview with The Post, Stutzman said the president told them that he wants to transform Syria into something entirely different from what it has been over the past decades.
“He was excited to talk about trade, commerce, tourism, and developing trade routes from the south to the north and into Europe, which could reduce transport times significantly.”
Stutzman acknowledged al-Sharaa’s past as a former al-Qaeda member, but said his first impression was that the president has undergone a transformation.
“We had a very good conversation,” said Stutzman. “He’s very young—early 40s. He was calm and thoughtful. You could tell he’s been working hard with everything happening since he took control of Syria.”
Tackling US sanctions will mean meeting conditions on human rights, Israel
To realize his ambitions for Syria, the president understands he must convince the Trump administration to lift sanctions. “He’s not asking the US for money, just for sanctions to be removed—and I think it’s something that should be considered,” Stutzman said.
He clarified that the US administration has conditions for lifting sanctions, including better relations with Israel. “The steps that need to be taken include ensuring respect for human rights, women’s rights, religious freedom, and treating all Syrians with dignity—no one should be treated as a minority or less than human. And of course, maintaining a respectful and secure relationship with Israel and that Syria doesn’t become a training ground for terrorism, doesn’t become a proxy for Iran or for China or Russia, and that they work as a country within the region”.
Stutzman calls on officials to take a chance on Sharaa
However, top Israeli officials remain skeptical of the president’s new tone. “They were jihadists and remain jihadists—even if they’re now wearing suits,” Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said a few weeks ago.
Stutzman, through The Post, sent a message to his counterparts in Israel: “It’s clear this regime is preferable to Assad’s. Talk to him—what do you have to lose? Could he deceive us? Yes—and shame on him if he does. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t talk to him. If he follows through on the steps we all consider important, then we can talk about the next stage. Not engaging with him could drive him back toward Russia and Iran.”
Ultimately, Stutzman believes US President Donald Trump will decide what happens with US policy on Syria and set the terms for Syria’s return to the international community.
Al-Sharaa, he said, wants to open a new chapter—but must be careful not to deceive.
“If President al-Sharaa does what he says he wants to do, Syria could become prosperous—a place people compare to Istanbul. A country thriving on the global stage. This is an incredible opportunity for him—if he gets it right. If he gets it wrong, there will be consequences.”
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Trump not happy with the huge Russian missile strike on Kiev
(zerohedge)
“Vladimir, STOP!” Trump Responds To ‘Massive’ Russian Missile Strike On Kiev, Leaving 9 Dea
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 08:45 AM
Amid stalled US-led peace talks, Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine, including raining down ballistic missiles on the center of Kiev, unleashing large-scale death and destruction.
At least nine people have been reported killed and over 70 injured in the capital city, in what was one of the largest and deadliest missile strikes on Ukraine in months. Some other cities, including Kharkiv, were also hit.
Anti-aircraft systems began engaging inbound missiles and drones at about 1am local time. But after drones and missiles were able to make it through, several buildings – including a factory – and a house, as well as cars, were set on fire.
BBC writes, “An apartment block was completely flattened during the attack and the windows of surrounding buildings were blown out and balconies ripped down.”
“Russia has launched a massive combined strike on Kyiv,” Ukraine’s state emergency service announced on Telegram. “According to preliminary data, nine people were killed, 63 injured.”
President Trump early Thursday condemned the attack, saying he’s “not happy” with the Russian move. “Vladimir, STOP!” he wrote on Truth Social. “5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”
A large rescue effort has been underway given a missile head a densely populated area, with Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, saying of Svyatoshinsky district of Kiev, “Mobile phones can be heard ringing under the ruins. The search will continue until everybody is got out. We have information about two children who cannot be found at the scene of the incident.”
Ukrainian officials have cited that some 70 missiles and up to 150 drones were used against several cities in the devastating overnight attack.
BBC footage from the Russian attack in Kyiv last night.
According to available information, at least 8 people were killed during the strikes in the Ukrainian capital.
Ukrainian Air Force informed that Russia launched 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 37 Kh-101… pic.twitter.com/zucVYlpWi9
This new Thursday attack on the capital was the deadliest since last year’s July 8 attack on Kiev, which left 34 people dead and 121 injured.
It comes after the Zelensky government has expressed frustration that the White House should be more concerned and standing by Ukraine’s side, instead of holding bilateral talks toward diplomatic normalization with Russia.
The latest Trump and Zelensky back-and-forth has focused on Crimea. Trump on Wednesday slammed the Ukrainian leader for rejecting a US proposal that would see Kiev give up all claims on Crimea. Trump pointed out that Crimea “was lost years ago” and that Zelensky has “no cards to play”.
Zelensky then cited the 2018 “Crimea declaration” by Trump’s then secretary of state Mike Pompeo, which laid out that the United States “rejects Russia’s attempted annexation”.
Emotions have run high today. But it is good that 5 countries met to bring peace closer. Ukraine, the USA, the UK, France and Germany. The sides expressed their views and respectfully received each other’s positions. It’s important that each side was not just a participant but… pic.twitter.com/lDFV5WK8tw
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 23, 2025
“There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine,” Zelensky had initially told reporters of the question of giving up Crimea permanently.
But Vice President JD Vance had also articulated while traveling in India, “We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process.”
Kyiv is under Russian attack. 21 people are hospitalized, including a pregnant woman and three children. pic.twitter.com/IQZw9TkV8I
He emphasized “The only way to really stop the killing is for the armies to both put down their weapons, to freeze this thing and to get on with the business of actually building a better Russia and a better Ukraine.”
Freezing the war now would certainly give Russian forces a huge advantage, given the immense territory in the East they now hold, and this is in large part why Zelensky is refusing such a deal.
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
peace will occur if the following happens:
Peace Will Be Achieved When Ukraine Withdraws From 4 Annexed Territories: Pesko
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 11:00 AM
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has filled in a little bit more of the details in the wake of a Financial Times report issued Tuesday which said President Putin is offering to freeze the current battle lines for the sake of a peace deal.
The significant concession came as a surprise to many, who asked what’s the catch. Peskov in Wednesday comments filled in the missing information, stressing that peace can be achieved if Ukrainian forces fully withdraw from territory in the four oblasts Moscow annexed in 2022.
Financial Times wrote that “The proposal is the first formal indication Putin has given since the war’s early months three years ago that Russia could step back from its maximalist demands to end the invasion.”
Peskov in the fresh statement emphasized that Russia’s claim to the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia remain enshrined in its constitution.
He was asked directly whether a Ukrainian withdrawal would end the war, to which he responded, “If Ukraine withdraws its troops from these four regions, then yes.”
“According to the results of the referendums, these territories have entered the administrative borders of Russia. From our point of view, this is a de jure and de facto situation,” Peskov said.
But so far Zelensky hasn’t even been willing to cede Crimea, despite the Russian-speaking population of the strategic peninsula long being firmly in Russian hands, also with its naval Black Sea fleet being stationed there since Soviet Times and throughout recent history.
President Trump said Wednesday that Ukraine “lost” Crimea years ago, and so it is “not even a point of discussion”. But Washington’s demands that Ukraine finally compromise on the issue has been rejected by Zelensky.
Peskov commented on this too, expressing total agreement with Trump. “This completely corresponds with our understanding, which we have been saying for a long time,” he said.
If the Ukrainian government did finally accede to Russia’s demands, it would lose 20% of its total territory, given this is about how much Russian forces currently occupy.
The US is also said to currently be offering Ukrainian neutrality vis-a-vis NATO, alongside international recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. But talks have still not gotten off the ground, and the Trump admin is ramping up the pressure on Zelensky especially.
end
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
NIH Director Gives Update On New Project To Find Causes Of Autism
The director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) said on April 22 that the new project to identify the causes of autism will likely involve patient records and outside researchers.
“We’d like to … get access to the medical records of a large portion of the American population,” Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, the NIH’s director, told reporters in Washington.
“I think to answer a question like this—why is autism rising—you need very large samples of people.”
He also said, “Medical records, I believe, should be a very important part of this, because that’s maybe the best way to track the link between exposures and then what happens afterwards.”
The project could draw data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid as well as other parts of the government, such as the military, Bhattacharya said. Patient data would be deanonymized to protect privacy, according to the NIH director.
Bhattacharya had said during an NIH meeting on Monday that the NIH’s data platform would pull data from pharmacy chains, medical claims, federal partnerships, and health organizations.
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told President Donald Trump earlier in April that health officials had launched a “massive testing and research effort” that would determine what caused the spike in autism. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report released on April 15 showed the rate of autism is up to one in 31 children in America. Autism is a developmental disability that can cause an array of symptoms, including delays in learning skills and epilepsy.
Kennedy told a recent briefing that the rise in autism is attributable to environmental factors, as opposed to genetics or better screening. He said studies would examine possible culprits such as mold and air pollution.
Bhattacharya said that the budget for the project, which will be run out of his office, is not finalized yet but will be in the order of tens of millions of dollars.
The process for picking researchers to be involved will be the normal process, with researchers offering proposals, NIH centers evaluating the proposals, and peer reviewers deciding which projects will be approved.
“I don’t know the exact details [of] what that will look like, but the goal is to use the normal way we do science at the NIH to answer a question that the NIH normally has not sought to answer,” Bhattacharya said.
Bhattacharya said at an unrelated briefing earlier on Tuesday that the reason autism is rising is a question “that is at the front of the minds of so many parents across the country worried about their kids, and yet scientific progress on this has been slow because scientists are frankly scared to ask the question.”
He said that the NIH “is going to make it so that those questions are no longer taboo among scientists.”
Kennedy has said that vaccines may be one of the causes of autism.
Bhattacharya said during his confirmation hearing that he did not think there was a link between autism and vaccines, based on his reading of the literature, although he said he would support investigating the spike in autism.
Some autism organizations said in a joint statement on April 17 that “vaccines do not cause autism.”
The Autistic Self Advocacy Network, one of the groups, said in a statement that “it is simply impossible that actual research into a supposed environmental cause of autism could be completed by September–real science does not move that quickly.”
Kennedy had told the president that “by September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic,” but Bhattacharya said the project will take longer than that.
Bhattacharya said that the plan is to issue a call for proposals by September. Scientists will then respond to the call, and grants will be approved.
“I would like to have a timeline within a year, where they would start to put out the preliminary results,” he said.
He added later: “Secretary Kennedy is enthusiastic to get the scientific process going, and I am too, so … he’s accurately communicating that we want to get moving on this as rapidly as we can.”
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
BOOM! Now we are talking! Hat-tip to RFK Jr. if as reported; RFK Jr. (Bobby Kennedy Jr.) considers pulling Covid v…
vaccine from the recommended childhood vaccine schedule, two people familiar with the discussions told POLITICO”; thank you POTUS Trump for this step as it is what we need & MORE MORE MORE!
this I applaud if it happens & would praise RFK Jr.; The directive, if implemented, would mark Kennedy’s most significant move yet to shake up the nation’s vaccination practices, affecting a CDC schedule that health providers nationwide rely on to guide vaccine distribution. Background: Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine activist, has previously questioned the need for kids to get the shot, raising doubts about its safety and citing studies showing healthy children face an extremely low risk of death from Covid.
‘Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. questioned the need for all children to get COVID shots amid reports that the U.S. government is considering revoking its current vaccine recommendations.
“The recommendation for children was always dubious,” Kennedy told Fox News when asked to comment on considerations by the Trump administration to modify the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s childhood vaccine schedule.’
Why it matters: Eliminating the vaccine from the CDC schedule wouldn’t bar kids from receiving it. But the change would represent an extraordinary intervention by Kennedy to override the agency’s scientific decision-making and reverse a recommendation backed by the CDC and a slate of independent advisers just three years ago.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The removal would also likely influence vaccination procedures across the nation. Pediatricians rely on the CDC schedule to determine which vaccines they should give children and when to administer them to protect against a range of common infectious diseases.’
This is a good development and there is no need for talk anymore, just action. Thank you RFK Jr., we stand by for the final action.
Thank you POTUS Trump for nominating RFK Jr. for this role for this and MORE, is what we need and waiting for.
RFK Jr. questions universal COVID shots for American children
‘Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. questioned the need for all children to get COVID shots amid reports that the U.S. government is considering revoking its current vaccine recommendations.
“The recommendation for children was always dubious,” Kennedy told Fox News when asked to comment on considerations by the Trump administration to modify the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s childhood vaccine schedule.
Changing the vaccine schedule, which currently recommends the COVID immunization for children as young as six months old, would be Kennedy’s most notable move yet on vaccines, which he has long criticized. Kennedy has supported debunked theories linking some shots with the development of autism and threatened legal action against the Food and Drug Administration if it approved a COVID shot for young children in 2022, when he was chair of Children’s Health Defense.’
“President Trump doesn’t believe that anybody should get mandatory vaccines,” Kennedy said on Tuesday. “People should make that choice for themselves.”
In the U.K. and European Union, COVID shots are generally reserved for children aged five years old or over, or those with other health issues that can lead to increased risks of severe COVID.
FDA Commissioner Marty Makary has supported vaccines for some children. In 2021, he wrote in an opinion piece in MedPage Today saying that children who are overweight or have a “preexisting condition” should be vaccinated.
“No final decision has been made,” HHS spokesperson Andrew Nixon told Bloomberg. Politico first reported the Trump administration’s considerations.
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
END
Fwd: While many Republican congresspersons & Senators sit there & in cabinet as bobblehead ‘yes-men’ and women, silent,…
when he thinks actions could be harmful; others sit there and eat the cake and enjoy the wine & cheese and photos; to me, FAILURES! I support Trump but he makes mistakes & you must call him on it!
‘WASHINGTON—Many Republican lawmakers lie low when they have differences with President Trump. Sen. Rand Paul has taken the opposite approach.
“Congress needs to grow a spine, and Congress needs to stand up for its prerogatives,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters, complaining that Trump relied on a national-emergency law to impose tariffs that Paul believes should be controlled by lawmakers. His comments came just days after he was one of only two GOP senators to vote against the party’s budget framework that is key to Trump’s tax cuts, saying it didn’t do enough to reduce the deficit.’
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Fake It Till Trump Makes It
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 11:20 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Fake it till Trump makes it
Markets were thrilled this week as Bloomberg reported US Treasury Secretary Bessent saying 145% US tariffs on China were “unsustainable” and a trade deal would be done soon; yet people *in the room* say that didn’t capture his real message – that China would see *it* needed to move first. Markets were just as excited by President Trump saying those tariffs would come down “substantially” but missed the context that this was *after a deal*, not as a unilateral US step.
The Wall Street Journal caused another market surge in reporting ‘White House Considers Slashing China Tariffs to De-Escalate Trade War: Levies could be cut by more than half in some cases although Trump hasn’t yet made final decision’. Within hours, one of the authors tweeted: “UPDATE: Admin official said Trump wouldn’t act unilaterally and would need to see action from China. People close to admin said Trump has plenty of room to cut tariffs without changing overall picture. “It would be kind of a pressure valve release without actually doing anything.”” The original headline was still up at time of writing over 12 hours later.
The Financial Times claims Trump’s “latest retreat” is on auto tariffs. An hour later, the president denied it. Again, the story was still up unchanged at time of writing.
Bloomberg this morning has the top headline “New Rate – Trump: China May Get New Tariff Rate Soon.” If you listen to what he said, he’s negotiating with 90 countries, and those that strike deals in the next 2-3 weeks will get a lower rate, while those that don’t will get one imposed… and China could be in either camp, the implication being it depends on what *it* does.
Moreover, not being reported prominently at all in the financial press, Bessent gave a speech at the IIF yesterday in which he stated, “Everywhere we look across the international system today, we see imbalance… My goal… is to outline a blueprint to restore equilibrium to the global financial system and the institutions designed to uphold it.” While he stressed, “America First does not mean America alone”, he made clear the US seeks “expanded leadership in international institutions like the IMF and the World Bank… to restore fairness to the international economic system [which faces] the stark reality of large and persistent US deficits as a result of an unfair trading system,” a status quo which is, “not sustainable for the US, and ultimately,… not sustainable for other economies.”
He said the US is eager to work with the IMF and World Bank, “so long as they can stay true to their missions. And under the status quo, they are falling short… We must make the IMF the IMF again… [It] must be a brutal truth-teller and not just to some members. Today, the IMF has been whistling past the graveyard. Its 2024 external sector report was entitled, “Imbalances Receding.” This Pollyannaish outlook is symptomatic of an institution more dedicated to preserving the status quo than answering the hard questions. Here in the US, we know we need to get our fiscal house in order… but we will not abide the IMF failing to critique the countries that most need it, principally surplus countries… the IMF needs to call out countries like China that have pursued globally distorted policies and opaque currency practices for many decades.”
Bessent also said the World Bank “should no longer expect blank cheques for vapid, buzzword-centric marketing accompanied by half-hearted commitments to reform… Treating China, the second-largest economy in the world, as a developing country is absurd.”
In Q&A, he underlined the US wants to work with China to help it shift to consumption as it moves back to manufacturing: but if China won’t … join, or decouple, the dots. He welcomed European defence spending but laughed at the Euro being a global reserve currency, wishing them well with the consequences that would come with it on top of the appreciation just seen. He also stressed, “I think Wall Street can continue doing well. But I think it’s Main Street’s turn to share in the prosperity,” implying he wants more lending by smaller banks to make the latter happen.
Elsewhere, Secretary of State Rubio was singing the same tune, the Defence Secretary from his, as the US Trade Representative has just done too, hammering home the US point from all sides.
In short, as central bank “Think of the asset prices!” control of markets is replaced by economic statecraft “Think of the national security!” control of the economy, we are seeing normative financial journalism determined to fake-it-till-Trump-makes-it what they want it to be – “because markets again.”
Yes, the White House worries about markets. If things get ugly enough, they offer a verbal carrot. No, Trump is not faking it, and he did not just fold. The US grand macro strategy is not changing. As wiser heads at the Wall Street Journal note, ‘Markets Think They Hold All the Cards Over Trump’, before adding, “The plunge in stocks, bonds, and the dollar matter to Trump. But there’s no assurance that he will be ruled by them.”
Yet with a de facto US-China trade embargo in place, the US economy could see shortages on shelves within weeks and/or of price rises; and even if there is a tariff U-turn, logistics would then be overwhelmed, true even if the Fed’s Beige Book overnight was typically beige in capturing those emergent risks. That’s as fake-it-till-Trump-makes-it MAGA thinking that a stronger US dollar would provide offset to any tariffs falls far short of reality. That might see some movement.
However, even a 60% tariff for China would mean the maximalist US position previously seen as unthinkable would be celebrated with relief. Moreover, those sneering at US assets as ‘uninvestable’ don’t see that these scarring experiences also mean real economy firms are scrambling to set up new supply chains in the US or outside China and will continue to do so even if tariffs go to 60% – when markets will be rallying while missing the longer-term big picture. Nobody in manufacturing assumes this goes away via a debunked Bloomberg, WSJ, or Financial Times headline. Where supply chains sit 3 to 5 years from now is open to question. Wheeling and dealing is thus underway:
12 US states have sued Trump, saying tariffs have “brought chaos to the American economy.” They may bring chaos to a US constitution that only exists due to unity over the need for tariffs.
As allegations of China’s support for Russia emerge, the European Parliament is in the ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions on it: apparently “free trade” trumps all for some. Good luck with that, as Bessent would likely say with a smile.
The US has made a final peace offer to Ukraine –which gets security guarantees from Europe only, and the potential ability to join the EU, not NATO– and to Russia –which gets to keep most of what it’s taken for sanctions relief and US energy cooperation– or it will walk away. Ukraine, supposedly to sign a minerals deal today again, has perhaps has already rejected it.
The US is reportedly telling Iran it will process nuclear fuel for it under a new deal, again bringing it in from the cold on sanctions. If it doesn’t agree, does the US opt for JCPOA 2.0, and then expanded Abraham Accords and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or war?
In response to a terror attack in Kashmir, India has cancelled visas for all Pakistanis; closed the border crossing; suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which Pakistan has in the past stated could amount to an act of war; and rumours fly of possible Indian military action.
The ex-head of the WEF allegedly fiddled with the organisation’s Global Competitiveness Index ratings — the data were faked by Schwab while the WEF were making it — as well as engaging in financial and moral impropriety; and
The UK has decided to approve attempts to dim the sun to control climate change within weeks: it’s called British summer. Really – on both fronts.
What a year 2025 is proving to be.
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES/
PAKISTAN/INDIA
this will turn deadly as India is cutting off critical water supply to Pakistan
(zerohedge)
Pakistan Warns Of ‘Act Of War’ After India Cancels Landmark Water Treaty
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 01:00 PM
India is retaliating against Pakistan in major ways as tensions soar in the wake of the Tuesday terrorist attack on Indian-Controlled Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists in the picturesque region.
Not only has India closed its border to Pakistan, declaring that no visas will be given to Pakistanis, but the Indian government has downgraded its diplomatic ties with Islamabad and suspended a crucial water treaty. Pakistani visa holders in India have also been ordered leave the country within 48 hours.
The water issue will could impact hundreds of millions of people on both sides of the border, as the 1960 Indus Water Treaty delineates how water is distributed and used from six rivers that flow through both countries, starting in disputed regions of the Himalayas in the north.
The decision was made in a meeting chaired by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who cut short a trip to Saudi Arabia. All Pakistan military advisers who were previously cooperating with their Indian counterparts have also been given a week to leave.
During the terror attack on the tourist destination in the Baisaran Valley men were separated from women and children by armed militants which had descended on the area. The men, all civilians, were then asked their names before being executed at close range.
This apparently was to confirm that they were Hindus. India has alleged that this was a Pakistan-backed massacre conducted by Islamic extremists due to the sectarian nature of the attack. Islamabad has long been accused of harboring Islamic terror groups along the disputed Jammu and Kashmir border region.
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri specifically charged Wednesday press conference that “cross-border linkages of the terrorist act” had been “brought out” – in a clear reference to Pakistan. Authorities have identified that 25 victims were Indian, and one a Nepali citizen.
Pakistan has firmly rejected it had anything to do with the massacre, instead saying that terrorism in India was “homegrown”. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said“This is the result of a Hindutva [Hindu nationalist] government exploiting and killing religious minorities, including Christians and Buddhists,” He described to a Pakistan news service this was the result of “homegrown rebels.”
Accounts by the women survivors, graphic images of their husbands slain:
Pakistan on Thursday also announced the closure of its airspace to India; suspended all trade with the country; suspended with immediate effect all visas issued to Indian nationals under an exemption scheme; reduced to 30 the number of diplomats in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad; and asked Indian defense, naval and air advisers to leave Pakistan before April 30.
India’s attempts to link the attack with Pakistan are “frivolous, devoid of rationality and defeat logic,” Islamabad said, describing India’s sweeping diplomatic measures as “unilateral, unjust, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible and devoid of legal merit.”
The two rival nuclear-armed powers have fought no less than three wars over the status of the Muslim-majority Kashmir region, given both sides claim it in its entirety – going back to 1947.
As for India’s cancelation of the landmark water treaty, Pakistan on Thursday is warning that India is committing an “act of war”.
Pakistan’s National Security Committee has declared that if India moves forward with suspending the Indus Water Treaty, which was carefully mediated by the World Bank, it “will be considered as an Act of War.”
A relatively unknown group calling itself The Resistance Front claimed responsibility for the attack in a social media post. It blamed “outsiders” who settled the region and caused a “demographic change” – strongly suggesting the terror attack was tied to Indian claims over the disputed region. Indian military and police units are still searching for the suspects, and sketch artists have issued renderings of the attackers based on survivors’ accounts.
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1384 UP 0.0055 PTS OR 55 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 142.40 DOWN 0.797 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3315 UP.0051 OR 51 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3858 DOWN 0.0016 (CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.93 PTS OR 0.03%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 162.86 PTS OR 0.74%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.61%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL RED EXCEPT ITALY
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL RED EXCEPT ITALY
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 162.86 PTS OR 0.74%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.93 PTS OR 0.03%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.61%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 170.52 PTS OR 0.49%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3341.25
silver:$33.45
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.12 DOWN .52 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
Stocks Extend Gains After Trump Says “They” Are Having Meetings With China
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 12:38 PM
US equities extended their gains after President Trump told reporters that US was having daily ongoing talks with China.
“Well, they had a meeting this morning… we may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China.”
Trump added, when asked for more details:
“…it doesn’t really matter who ‘they’ are.”
REPORTER: Can you clarify with whom the U.S. is speaking with China? They're saying it's fake news that trade talks are happening.@POTUS: "Well, they had a meeting this morning… we may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we've been meeting with China." pic.twitter.com/99HGQIsCHf
The S&P is at a key technical resistance level once again…
…and has rallied above the first CTA buy trigger:
Short term: 5595
Med term: 5775
Long term: 5479
If it closes here, we could start seeing cascade of chasing higher.
How long until China denies… again?
USA DATA
Trump Trade War Results In Record $12 Billion Surge In Customs Revenues
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 12:04 AM
Sometimes, especially when stocks are tumbling, bond yields are soaring and the dollar looks like it is about to lose its reserve currency (and be replaced by what: the yuan? the euro? the turkish lira?), it is easy to forget what is the driving motive behind Trump’s trade war. And in a nutshell, it is this chart: US debt which at $37 trillion is unsustainable, and which is growing at a pace which everyone – not just the bipartisan CBO, but also the Fed, the IMF, Elon Musk, the shoeshine boy, literally everyone – knows for a fact is catastrophically unsustainable.
But while everyone knows something has to be done to avoid a devastating catastrophe, until Trump came along nobody would dare do a thing to change the current status quo for the obvious abovementioned reasons: any attempt to restructure or even modestly adjust US debt-funded “growth”, which transforms roughly $1 trillion of debt every 100 days into less than $200 billion of economic output…
… would lead to tumbling stocks, soaring bond yields and the dollar trading like it’s the Turkish lira. Kinda like right now.
But the US had to start somewhere, and Trump did that amid the now familiar howls of terror from market participants (how dare Trump do something that trades long-term viability for short-term pain), the co-opted mainstream media and of course establishment economists, all of whom agree something must be done… just not this and not now.
Still, with nothing to lose, the 2nd term president has started off on a path of doing something, and while nobody knows where and how it all ends, we have some good news: it is starting to bear fruit, in the form of a huge surge in customs revenues.
According to today’s Daily Treasury Statement, on April 22, the US collected a record $11.7 billion in “customs and certain excise taxes”…
… the biggest one day haul on record. To be sure, this is not a “one-day collection”, but rather is a monthly accrual and is more indicative of the monthly total (which stands at about $15.4 billion).
But However one looks at it, the amount is certainly impressive and is double the previously monthly total, and about six times greater than the pre-Trump 1.0 monthly total in the $2BN ballpark. And this is just the start: once more layered tariffs start being collected, the monthly customs revenue will double again, rising to $25bn, $30bn, and so on… numbers which start to matter in the grand scheme of things.
In other words, while one can rage against Trump’s policies and mean tweets, he is the only one who is doing something to prevent an outcome which everyone agrees will be catastrophic… but because it is “some time in the future” as opposed to pain right now, everyone would much rather have the next generation of Americans foot the bill and deal with the catastrophic fallout. Or, one can do something about it, and while it will take much, much more than even the above stunning doubling in customs collections, the chart above represents what America has long needed: a painful start in the right – and sustainable – direction.
end
Jobless claims refuse to buckle under. So far no recession!
(zerohedge)
WTF Are CEOs Waiting For? Jobless Claims Refuse To Buckle To ‘Recession’ Narrative
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 08:39 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose very modestly to 222k last week. Since Nov 2021, jobless claims have barely blipped higher (or lower), despite the recent tsunami of calls for imminent recession…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims dropped to 3 month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
But here’s the big picture – despite CEO panic, employment remains unquestionably strong…
Source: Bloomberg
So are these CEOs delinquent in their roles? Why aren’t they firing 1000s of staff? Or are they just full of shit in their public prevarications?
end
US Existing Home Sales Weakest March Since Great Financial Crisis
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 10:11 AM
Following an unexpectedly large jump in February (biggest in a year), existing home sales were expected to drop significantly in March, and they did. Existing home sales fell 5.9% MoM (considerably worse than the 3.1% MoM drop expected) reversing the upwardly revised 4.4% MoM rise in February, dragging sales down 2.4% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the weakest March sales pace since 2009… and biggest MoM drop since Nov 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
The drop in sales aligns perfectly with the lagged rebound in mortgage rates, which suggests the next two months will see an improvement before weakness resumes…
Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023.
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, new and existing (median) home prices are once again identical…
Source: Bloomberg
The gain in prices largely reflected more sales activity for homes priced above $1 million, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on a call with reporters. However, he also noted that the size of the increase was relatively mild compared to wage growth.
Prices are rising even as more inventory comes onto the market from depressed levels. The supply of previously owned homes jumped 19.8% from a year ago to 1.33 million, the most for any March since 2020.
Sales declined in all four regions from the prior month, with the biggest drops occurring in the West and South.
Sales of existing single-family homes retreated 6.4%, while sales of existing condominiums were unchanged.
Properties remained on the market for 36 days on average last month, compared with 42 days in February
Finally, while home prices are at record highs, on a ‘real’ inflation adjusted basis (relative to gold, we mean), they are at 12 year lows…
If you had 129 ounces of gold right now, would you swap them for a ‘used’ house?
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
DB claims that auto tariffs will be a permanent fixture
(zerohedge)
Auto Tariffs Increasingly Looking Like A “Permanent Fixture”, Deutsche Bank Says
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 02:45 AM
According to Deutsche Bank, with U.S. auto tariffs increasingly looking like a permanent fixture, they’re closely monitoring how automakers are responding each week—particularly on pricing, incentives, and production shifts, according to a note out this week by analyst Edison Yu.
While the administration has hinted at potential relief, there’s still no clarity on what that might entail. For now, Deutsche Bank assumes a 25% tariff applies to all imported vehicles, except those qualifying under USCMA rules until customs can fully assess non-U.S. content. Imported parts are expected to fall under the tariff starting May 3rd.
Responses among automakers remain mixed. Ford plans to hike prices on new vehicles next month, Tesla is reportedly halting Chinese parts imports for its CyberCab and Semi programs, and layoffs are anticipated at Volvo truck plants.
Last week we noted that Deutsche Bank said automakers (OEMs) are adopting a wide range of strategies to navigate the uncertainty—adjusting pricing, incentives, and production plans on a rolling basis.
The bank emphasized that the market should operate under the assumption that “all imported vehicles are currently subject to the 25% tariff,” with imported parts facing similar duties starting May 3.
In its April 15 update, Deutsche Bank observed, “Across OEMs, we continue to see a dispersion of reactions.”
For instance, Tesla has paused sales of U.S.-built Model X and S vehicles in China, while GM halted operations at its CAMI Assembly Plant. Mazda, Mitsubishi, and Subaru have also taken a variety of measures—ranging from absorbing price increases to stopping U.S. inventory shipments altogether.
Among notable strategic shifts, Ford is offering broad employee pricing discounts and reshuffling production to its Fort Wayne facility and Honda has publicly stated it will not raise consumer prices as it evaluates its response.
Meanwhile, Infiniti has indefinitely paused production of two crossover models built in Mexico and Rivian and several other EV manufacturers have so far maintained operations but are assessing longer-term impacts.
While some OEMs are absorbing tariff costs temporarily—Mazda, for instance, will do so through April—others are preparing to pass the cost downstream. Deutsche Bank notes that despite a lack of sweeping public announcements, “the cost impact will not be trivial,” as one unnamed CEO warned.
Deutsche Bank continues to track weekly developments and offers updated data in spreadsheet form upon request, cautioning investors that policy developments could shift “overnight.”
We noted earlier this month Deutsche was still cautious on auto stocks. In a note on Monday it said that as Q1 2025 earnings approach, automakers still face significant uncertainty from new tariffs. They expect strong early-year demand as consumers buy ahead of price hikes, followed by a slowdown in the second half as tariffs bite—pushing 2025 U.S. auto sales to 15.4 million, down from 16.0 million in 2024.
Ford and GM could see gross costs rise by over $10 billion, while Tesla and Rivian face smaller impacts due to their supply chains, the note said. These estimates assume a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts starting May 3, with exemptions for USMCA-compliant content.
The Trump administration has found itself in a dispute with Harvard University. It began when the President’s team sent several Ivy League universities a list of changes they expected the schools to make.
The move is part of a new right-wing strategy which recognizes that we currently live under a vague, necessarily politicized system of civil rights law and aims to begin interpreting civil rights laws in ways more in line with the values and social aims of the right.
By threatening to withhold federal funds, the administration was able to get schools like Columbia University to agree to enact changes like banning masks, granting campus police more powers, and appointing an administrator to oversee the Middle East Studies Department with the authority to crack down on rhetoric about Israel that the administration considers antisemitic.
Harvard, however, refused to abide by the administration’s demands. As a result, Trump froze a little over $2 billion in federal funds going to the school last week and announced plans to freeze an additional $1 billion earlier this week—all while threatening to withhold all $9 billion the Ivy League school receives from the federal government each year if they refuse to agree to the President’s demands.
The showdown is largely being framed as either a battle to protect academic freedom from an authoritarian president or an overdue effort to rescue one of the nation’s oldest universities from the radical far-left administrators leading it off course.
But as politicians, pundits, and university officials battle over which characterization is accurate and, therefore, what ought to happen next, few are paying any attention to one of the more outrageous details that this dispute has brought attention to: that taxpayers are being forced to send $9 billion a year to one of the wealthiest colleges in the world.
The $9 billion figure comes from several federal programs—including education initiatives, student aid, research grants, student loan guarantees, and funding for the university’s affiliated hospitals.
Much of this funding is composed of multi-year grants and contracts, but the annual figure does, indeed, tend to land around $9 billion.
And that’s just Harvard. Zoom out, and you’ll find that those same federal programs are forcing the over-taxed, heavily-indebted, inflation-rattled American public to send well over $100 billion to colleges and universities every single year.
Conservatives and free-market advocates are right to point out whenever the topic of student debt forgiveness is brought up that such a program is, in effect, a wealth transfer from poorer, working-class Americans without college degrees to their better-off, frequently white-collar, college-educated counterparts. But the same is true for all programs that transfer tax dollars to colleges and universities.
Beyond being blatantly unjust, the federal money pouring into higher education is the main factor behind the exploding cost of college in recent decades. In the name of making college more affordable, the federal government effectively took over the student loan market in the US and—primarily by extending government loan guarantees—expanded the level of lending far beyond what private lenders were willing to provide.
That created significantly more demand for college, which jacked up the price. Then, the artificially high prices forced even more students to turn to loans to afford school, which required more government loan guarantees, which made prices even higher, meaning more loans were needed, and on and on. All the while, the government has started and expanded direct federal spending programs on education that have only fueled the affordability death spiral.
This has been terrible for every non-wealthy student or family straining to pay for a college degree, and all the people who could not afford to go to college at all who are still forced to fund all the government subsidies causing this mess. But, it’s important to understand, this setup has been great for the universities who have gotten to enjoy filling their campuses with cartoonishly lavish buildings and resort-level accommodations, while bloating their administrations with diversity officers, sustainability directors, and other ideological positions.
It has also been great for the politicians and government bureaucrats who have gained leverage over the schools educating the next generation and the scholars and intellectuals currently researching topics relevant to those running our federal government.
In other words, federal higher education policy is best understood as one big government-run scam that’s enriching and empowering a small group of ideological administrators and bureaucrats at our expense. It is, in that way, no different from the healthcare system—through which schools like Harvard are also receiving money through their hospitals.
That is the big unspoken truth at the core of this debate about what the Trump administration is doing with Harvard. A president like Trump can exert control over the internal policies of these universities because of how unnecessarily reliant they are on government money. And widespread pushing of highly unpopular progressive dogmas in classrooms and professional scholarship can only happen at this large a scale because of how—and how much—higher ed and academia are subsidized in modern America.
There is only one genuine and permanent solution to these problems. Halt all federal funding—direct and indirect—for these “private” colleges and universities.
As long as these schools rely on politicians to fund their operations, they will always be politicized. There is no escaping that. And, on the other side, even if Trump is totally victorious and gets Harvard to capitulate on everything, there is functionally nothing stopping the next Democrat to win the presidency from reversing everything Trump did.
Education and genuine scholarship are too important to entrust to the whims of politicians and government bureaucrats. Research and scholarship that is actually valuable does not require forcing people to fund it against their will.
And the American people cannot afford to keep sending a significant portion of their money to the well-off and well-connected. These problems are extensive, but the solution is straightforward: stop forcing us to fund these universities.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
smart move
Trump order will prevent Qatari, Chinese influence at schools, ed. sec. says
A White House fact sheet claimed that $60 billion in foreign gifts and contracts had flowed into US academic institutions over the decades.
Columbia University against backdrop of map of Middle East (illustration).(photo credit: 200mm from Getty Images Signature via Canva, Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images, REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/ILLUSTRATION)
An executive order issued by President Donald Trump on Wednesday, will require transparency in foreign funding of universities, with Education Department Secretary Linda McMahon emphasizing that the order would address the problem of Chinese and Qatari influence in American academic institutions.
Trump’s order called for McMahon to take all appropriate action to enforce pre-existing laws on foreign funding to universities and to demand the disclosure of more details about the donations, their sources, and purposes.
McMahon and Attorney General Pam Bondi were ordered to hold accountable institutions that failed to properly disclose foreign funding, and to conduct audits and investigations where appropriate.
The order explained that legislation on foreign funding in higher education had not been robustly enforced, with blame leveled at former president Joe Biden’s administration. Trump accused Biden of undermining investigations into foreign funding by moving the task out of the Education Department, and supposedly undoing his previous term’s work.
The previous Trump administration had opened 19 investigations into undisclosed foreign funds, according to the order, leading to the reporting of a further $6.5 billion. The new administration suggested that as much as half of reportable foreign gifts were not being disclosed, and funds that had been reported supposedly did not detail their true sources.
US Secretary of Education Linda McMahon smiles during the signing event for an executive order to shut down the Department of Education next to US President Donald Trump, in the East Room at the White House in Washington, March 20, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA)
A Wednesday White House Fact Sheet claimed that $60 billion in foreign gifts and contracts had flowed into American academic institutions over several decades, and only 300 institutions self-reported about the matter each year.
“Protecting American educational, cultural, and national security interests requires transparency regarding foreign funds flowing to American higher education and research institutions,” read the order. “It is the policy of my Administration to end the secrecy surrounding foreign funds in American educational institutions, protect the marketplace of ideas from propaganda sponsored by foreign governments, and safeguard America’s students and research from foreign exploitation.”
While the order empowering McMahon didn’t point to funding from a particular state as an issue, the education secretary highlighted funding from China allegedly used to steal intellectual property and Qatar influencing approaches on Israel.
“Colleges and universities have a legal duty to report foreign gifts and contracts and, in President Trump’s first term, the Department of Education held them to it. Unfortunately, in the last four years, the Biden Administration undermined the structures the President built to do this critical work, allowing nations like China and Qatar to funnel billions of dollars to US universities with little to no oversight. This financial infiltration enabled foreign governments to steal taxpayer-funded intellectual property and reshape how our elite campuses teach about Israel and the Middle East,” McMahon said in a Wednesday statement.
“President Trump’s Executive Order will safeguard American interests on campus and protect students. The Department of Education will ‘follow the money,’ put a stop to malign foreign infiltration, secure the research enterprise, and restore American campuses to marketplaces of ideas rather than hosts for foreign propaganda.”
Harvard already under the microscope
The Education Department on Friday had already begun to make inquiries and records requests relating to foreign funding to Harvard University, amid the federal government’s crackdown and spat with the institution over demanded policies to combat campus radicalism and antisemitism.
McMahon wanted to verify compliance with the 1965 Higher Education Act, requesting that Harvard provide a list of foreign gifts, grants, and contracts, and the identities of those involved in the donations.
The request had also sought a list of visiting researchers, scholars, students, and faculty, and details about foreign students who had been expelled or had their credentials cancelled.
KING NEWS
The King Report April 24, 2025 Issue 7478
Independent View of the News
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at the IIF (Institute of International Finance). He delicately criticized China for its mercantilist rapacious export strategy that harms the US and other nations. Bessent admonished the IMF for its wokeism and the World bank for treating China, ‘the 2nd largest economy in the world, like a developing nation.’
@bennyjohnson: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “I wish to be clear: America first does not mean America alone. To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration and mutual respect among trade partners.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1915048883107119361
@TrumpWarRoom: Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent: “China’s current economic model is built on exporting its way out of its economic troubles. It’s an unsustainable model that is not only harming China, but the entire world. China needs to change. The country knows it needs to change.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1915048842527138273
@SecScottBessent: “Intentional policy choices by other countries have hollowed out America’s manufacturing sector and undermined our critical supply chains, putting our national and economic security at risk. President Trump has taken strong actions to address these imbalances and the negative impacts they have on Americans.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1915046812336980008 “In line with its core mandate, the IMF needs to call out countries like China that have pursued globally distortive policies and opaque currency practices for many decades. I also expect the IMF to call out unsustainable lending practices by certain creditor countries.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1915048228128542791 “The IMF was once unwavering in its mission of promoting global monetary cooperation and financial stability. Now, it devotes disproportionate time and resources to work on climate change, gender, and social issues. These issues are NOT the IMF mission.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1915047985865806277
ESMs and NQMs soared during early Nikkei trading on Wednesday. After hitting 5424.00 at 19:13 ET, ESMs retreated to 5378.00 at 21:51 ET. A relentless rally then took ESMs to a daily high of 5499.75 at 9:59 ET. The ‘dump’ sank ESMs to 5453.50 at 10:16 ET. Another buying wave pushed ESMs to 5496.00 at 10:30 ET. ESMs then bounced to 5483.00 near 11:30 ET. ESMs then gently rolled over.
ESMs and stocks sank after this: Bessent Says Not Unilateral Offer from Trump to Cut China Tariffs – BBG 11:23 ET.
ESMs fell further after Bessent said ‘a full China trade deal may take two to three years.’
After falling to 5385.00 at 12:26 ET, ESMs stabilized. ESMs and stocks rebounded on this:
ESMs bounced to 5440.50 at 13:19 ET and then did a slow stair-step decline that took ESMs to 5383.75 at 15:36 ET. A late manipulation pushed ESMs to 5417.25 at 15:54 ET. ESMs then slid to 5980.00 at the NYSE close. This action and the day-long decline after the early rally portends negatively for Thursday.
It seems that Team Trump wants to jerk around traders and easily agitated investors!
@mazemoore: Elizabeth Warren has no problem going on TV before an election and calling for Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. When Trump publicly calls for a rate cut, Warren goes back on TV and attacks him for it. She is such a fraud. https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1914812475364794432
Positive aspects of previous session The NFL Draft begins tonight with Round One! Stocks zoomed higher during early NYSE trading. The Nasdaq 100 soared as much as 4% USMs rallied moderately; the dollar soared; gold got whacked.
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks peaked within 30 minutes of the NYSE opening. Team Trump is jerking around traders and fidgety investors.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What is Team Trump going to do or say next?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5400.57 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5469.69; 5356.17
@realDonaldTrump: Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about here.” This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired? The area also houses, for many years before “the Obama handover,” major Russian submarine bases. It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the “killing field,” and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!
Trump to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs… Also Steel and Aluminum – FT (post close)
Today – As we noted in yesterday’s missive, bounces from tumbles last two to three sessions. With stocks peaking by 10:00 ET on Wednesday, one can assume that panic shorts and lemming buyers finished their deeds early and there will be little urgency to buy until some news item appears.
After the early rally on Wednesday, ESMs and stocks had a large A-B-C decline. This is a big negative for today. Rumors or inside info about Google’s results, due after the close, could impact late trading.
ESMs are +15.00; NQMs are + 55.00; and USMs are +12/32 at 20:15 ET.
Expected economic data: March Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index 0.12; March Durable Goods 2.0% m/m, ex-Trans 0.3%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.1%, Shipments 0.2%; Initial Jobless Claims 222k, Continuing Claims 1.863m; March Existing Home Sales 4.15m; April KC Fed Mfg. Activity -5
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5658; 100-day MA: 5831; 150-day MA: 5826; 200-day MA: 5748 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,846; 100-day MA: 42,814; 150-day MA: 42,793; 200-day MA: 42,200 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5375.85 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6306.68 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD arenegative– a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5645.69 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5241.90 triggers a sell signal
@realDonaldTrump: I’m suing the law firm of Perkins Coie for their egregious and unlawful acts, in particular the conduct of a specific member of this firm, only to find out that the Judge assigned to this case is Beryl Howell, an Obama appointment, and a highly biased and unfair disaster. She ruled against me in the past, in a shocking display of sick judicial temperament, on a case that ended up working out very well for me, on appeal. Her ruling was so pathologically bad that it became the “talk of the town.” I could have a 100% perfect case and she would angrily rule against me. It’s called Trump Derangement Syndrome, and she’s got a bad case of it. To put it nicely, Beryl Howell is an unmitigated train wreck. NO JUSTICE!!!
Durbin’s 5 senate terms are marked by no significant achievements. He was a hack for Chicago Dems; and as head Dem on the Judiciary Com, he blocked the release of the Epstein Client List. PS – Four veteran Democrat senators have announced that they will NOT seek reelection in 2026.
@bennyjohnson: Senator Ron Johnson drops BOMBSHELL: Tells us that 9/11 Hearings are being planned, Building 7 was potentially a “Controlled Demolition” “Structural Engineers say that thing didn’t come down in any other way than controlled demolition. Molten steel. Destruction of evidence. We want answers. What really happened on 9/11? It’s being covered up by our government...” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1914372377112179056
@seanmdav: For those who’ve ever wondered whether the government was telling the truth about the Oklahoma City bombing, this story today from @JD_Cashless is a major bombshell.
Why Is Trump’s DOJ Hiding an FBI Informant’s Deposition on The Oklahoma Bombing? Matthews, a retired Marine who infiltrated the right-wing underground in the 1990s as a paid operative, never intended to become a whistleblower. He had been out of the game for over a decade, and only went public after he saw the bureau burned him by not redacting his name in documents that were being released… “Security videotapes from the area [around the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building] show the truck detonation 3 minutes and 6 seconds after the suspects exited the truck,” the Secret Service document states… Then a Ryder truck pulls up and a male resembling Timothy McVey [sic] is seen exiting the driver’s side of the Ryder truck and then walking away,” the FBI memo says. “Next, a second male is seen exiting the passenger side of the Ryder truck and walking to the back of the truck. The second male then walks away in the same direction as the first male.”… After all, former Attorney General Merrick Garland helped prosecute McVeigh, and was involved in suppressing information about John Doe 2… https://t.co/gXwmRmUesJ
The Polling Crisis: Accuracy, Bias, and Reform American political polling is in a death spiral. For three presidential cycles (2016, 2020, 2024), polls have consistently overestimated Democratic support by an average of 4.2 points in battleground states, creating a false reality that misguides campaigns, manipulates voters, and erodes trust in democracy… It’s a structural failure driven by collapsing response rates, nonresponse bias, industry gatekeepers and flawed grading systems propped up inaccurate pollsters while discrediting innovators… Today, response rates have crashed from 20% in 2000 to 5% in 2024, skewing samples toward urban, college-educated, institutionally trusting voters (AAPOR, 2024). Gatekeepers like Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight (now defunct) amplify this bias, endorsing flawed pollsters while dismissing accurate ones, creating a feedback loop of error and distrust. Public confidence in polls has plummeted from 38% in 2000 to 22% in 2024… Polling continues to model the electorate it expects or prefers to see, rather than the one that actually turns out to vote… https://quantusinsights.org/f/the-polling-crisis-accuracy-bias-and-reform
Can you believe it? The Democrats, once the supposed champions of the working class, have exposed themselves as nothing more than elitist snobs who couldn’t care less about real Americans. Recent polling has confirmed what conservatives have known all along: the Democratic Party is now the domain of overeducated, snobby, wealthy liberals who look down on anyone who doesn’t share their “enlightened” worldview.
Remember when Democrats at least pretended to care about the working class? Those days are long gone, replaced by a woke agenda that caters to the most unhinged elements of society. Now, they’re more interested in slobbering over MS-13 gangbangers than addressing the real concerns of everyday Americans.
Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik didn’t sugarcoat the situation during a conversation with Mark Halperin on 2WAY. The latest poll numbers, he explained, confirm what many on the Left have feared for months: the Democratic Party is in serious trouble. In a blunt, unflinching analysis, Sosnik laid out a series of hard truths that paint a grim picture of the party’s standing with American voters and underscore just how deep the erosion has become.
First, Sosnik pointed to the seismic shift in party affiliation.
“The electorate in 2024 was 6% less Democratic than compared to four years ago,” Halperin noted, asking if that level of movement was historically significant. Sosnik didn’t mince words: “The shift is significant, but more importantly… I can’t remember the last time that people who voted on Election Day — the majority, uh, plurality of them — were Democrats.” He continued, “It shows a real erosion for the Democratic Party,” noting that many of the Democrats who backed Biden in 2020 simply didn’t show up this time around.
That drop-off was made even more glaring when coupled with the latest favorability ratings.
“Lowest net favorable rating since the ’90s,” Halperin remarked, prompting Sosnik to outline a trifecta of disasters driving the collapse in support: inflation, immigration, and cultural arrogance.
On the economic front, Sosnik admitted, “We had the worst inflation in America since the early 1980s.”
He added that by the time Election Day arrived, “everything… was on average 20% higher than when Biden took office.” That kind of economic pain, Sosnik argued, doesn’t just dent a party; it shatters its credibility.
But the damage didn’t stop there.
Immigration, Sosnik said, became both a practical problem and a symbol.
“There’s a concern that people, uh, for their own personal… safety and security… the immigration issue was sort of both a real problem for Democrats, but also… a proxy for just a general sense that there was a lawlessness with a Democratic administration.” That perception of disorder extended into the cities, where “these big cities around America that were largely… governed by Democrats” seemed unable — or unwilling — to maintain control.”
Then came the cultural disconnect, the sense that Democrats had abandoned everyday Americans in favor of elite ideologies.
“A lot of people in America in the middle of the country thought Democrats were looking down on them,” Sosnik said bluntly. He attributed part of that disconnect to “how they talked, issues they cared about, all the DEI programs.” The result? A broadening sense among voters that Democrats “weren’t competent to govern.”
New polling data shows that Democrats have the lowest net favorability ratings since the 1990s. Concerns about inflation, public safety and immigration during the Biden Administration were major reasons, says Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik. But another factor is “a sense that… pic.twitter.com/O22GAfOccd
Taken together, the conversation was less a diagnosis than an autopsy. The Democrats aren’t just facing a messaging problem; they’re grappling with a wholesale rejection from swaths of the electorate they once considered safe. The warnings have been mounting for years. Now, with favorability cratering and voters fleeing, the party is watching those warnings come to life.
END
2nd Federal Judge Blocks Trump DEI Ban In K-12 Schools In Same Day
Thursday, Apr 24, 2025 – 03:40 PM
Update (1538ET): And moments later, a second federal judge has blocked the Trump administration from withholding funds from schools with DEI initiatives.
Shortly after US District Court Judge Landya McCafferty, an Obama appointee, issued a similar order – U.S. District Judge Stephanie A. Gallagher of Maryland, a Trump appointee, issued a broader ruling that prohibits the Department of Education from using federal funding to end DEI initiatives in public schools.
“This Court takes no view as to whether the policies at issue here are good or bad, prudent or foolish, fair or unfair,” wrote Gallagher. “But this Court is constitutionally required to closely scrutinize whether the government went about creating and implementing them in the manner the law requires. The government did not.“
Siding with the groups that brought the lawsuit, the American Federation of Teachers, the American Sociological Association and a public school in Oregon, Gallagher determined that they had successfully argued that they would be irreparably harmed, and that an Education Department letter at issue likely violated the Administrative Procedure Act.
“This Court ends where it began—this case is about procedure,” the judge continued. “Plaintiffs have shown that the government likely did not follow the procedures it should have, and those procedural failures have tangibly and concretely harmed the Plaintiffs. This case, especially, underscores why following the proper procedures, even when it is burdensome, is so important.”
* * *
A federal judge on Thursday blocked the Department of Education’s push to eliminate Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) from K-12 schools. Raise your hand if you’re shocked.
US District Court Judge Landya McCafferty, an Obama appointee who last year blocked a law in New Hampshire that would have kept transgender biological men out of women’s sports in public schools, sided with the National Education Association and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in their lawsuit against the Trump administration to block the effort, arguing that the directive violated teachers’ due process and First Amendment rights.
In her order, McCafferty said that the Trump administration’s argument is “unconstitutionally vague.”
“The letter does not even define what a ‘DEI program’ is,” she wrote.
The Trump administration has until Thursday to comply with her directive, including a prohibition on enforcing use of its “End DEI Portal” and a certification requirement it had imposed, Axios reports.
In January, Trump ordered the end of DEI in public schools and federal contractors in an executive order.
On April 3, the Department of Education sent letters to K-12 agencies ordering them to comply with the administration’s anti-DEI policies, a move which followed a February warning that they may lose federal funding for schools that refuse to get rid of DEI.
harveyorganblog.com 
