GOLD CLOSED DOWN $13.45 TO $3,323.90

SILVER CLOSED UP $0.30 TO $33.30

OPTION’S EXPIRY/WEDNESDAY APRIL 30 OTC/LONDON OPTIONS EXPIRY

 GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3322.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.90

Bitcoin morning price:$95,334 UP 455 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $95.290 up 411 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $16.30 TO $987.85

Palladium price; UP $9.65 TO $951.35

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,597.40 DOWN $18.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2478.40 DOWN 5.74 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,559.38 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 21/2025

*EURO GOLD: 2,917.98 DOWN 7.54 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2,973.82 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

jpmorgan stopped: 0/0

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICES FOR 0 OZ  0.0000 TONNES

total notices so far: 64,754 contracts for 6,475,400 OR 201.412 tonnes)

FOR APRIL

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 3192 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 15.966 million oz

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.30 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ INOT THE SLV//

CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:

CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.925 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 373 CONTRACTS TO 154,590 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.  WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 961 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 588 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING MONDAY SPRINKLED WITH SOME MONTH END SPREADERS AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICEBUT THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 710 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A HUGE 588 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 710 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY’S COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 961 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.03. 

THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS OF THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ (0 MILLION OZ). THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ARE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THUS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAVE A TOTAL OF 4.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON TWO OCCASIONS. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A HUGE 710 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY  $0.03) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A LOSS IN PRICE, WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 1392 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE HAD A HUGE 588 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.735 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4.00 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK

STANDING FOR APRIL REMAINS CONSTANT AT 19.965 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ GOOD COMEX OI GAIN+// A HUGE SIZED  EFP ISSUANCE (588 CONTRACTS)/ VI)   HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 710 CONTRACTS)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 431 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 22 DAYS, total 19,689 contracts:   OR 98.445 MILLION OZ  (894 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  98.445 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ

JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)

FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL

MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.

APRIL: 98.445 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 884 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 588 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 588 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF  15.965 MILLION  OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK

NEW STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT   (710 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TRADING.(OPTIONS EXPIRY)

WE HAD  0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.00 million OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2527 OI CONTRACTS  TO 448,075 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED A 779 CONTRACTS //.

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (2527 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $50.50 IN PRICE MONDAY. LAST WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES (CME CORRECTED// MAYBE?) TO WHICH WE ADD FOR APRIL ITS INITIAL 700 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES AND FRIDAY APRIL 4: 250 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR .777 TONNES + MONDAY APRIL 7 NEW ISSUANCE OF .8709 TONNES/ + APRIL 9 ‘S TOTAL OF 484 EX. FOR RISK FOR 48,400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES/NEW TOTAL AND APRIL 14 EX FOR RISK OF 30,000 OZ OR.6220 TONNES AND THEN APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY’S 187 CONTRACT EX FOR RISK FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES// ;NEW EX FOR RISK 8.3571 TONNES TO WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NEW QUEUE JUMP OF 42 CONTRACTS OR 4200 OZ (0.1306 TONNES). THUS STANDING FOR GOLD/APRIL DELIVERY MONTH IS 201.573 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES LATEST QUEUE JUMP) + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

/NEW STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.800 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $50.50 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2577 OI CONTRACTS (8.015 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AND NOW FOR OUR FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS. WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 50 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 448,075//NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2577 CONTRACTS  WITH 2527 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 50 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2577 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1456 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION MONDAY WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS IN PRICE BUT NOTHING ELSE!!

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (50 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 2527 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3356 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL 201.573 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES OUR 0.1306 TONNES QUEUE JUMP) AND THIS FOLLOWS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE ON 7 OCCASIONS FOR 8.3571 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 209.953 TONNES.

//NEW STANDING APRIL: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK ON 7 OCCASIONS = 209.953 TONNES

.

 / 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION+ ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE DESPITE HAVING 1)A HUGE  $50.50 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 3356 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ALL OF IT DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL. ALSO MAY’S GOLD CONTRACT MONTH REFUSES TO SHED A SINGLE CONTRACT. MAY WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH.

  4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5)  SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (2992 CONTRACTS)///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1456 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 66,406 CONTRACTS OR 6,640,600 OZ OR 206.5505 TONNES IN 22 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3018 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 22 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  206.5505 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  206.5505 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.81% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

2024 AND 2025:

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES

JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)

FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.

APRIL; 206.5505 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 373 CONTRACTS OI  TO 154,590 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 588 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 588 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 373 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 588 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 961  CONTRACTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.03 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 4.805 MILLION PAPER OZ

 OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.03 LOSS  IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.76 PTS OR .05%%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 36.15 PTS OR 0.16%

// Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.02%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2731 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2738/ Oil UP TO 61.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.50 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING

STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

END

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2527 CONTRACTS TO 448,075 DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH GAIN IN PRICE OF $50.50 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS DESPITE THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A TINY NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (50 ).

THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY NIGHT,  A 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES. SO FAR THIS MONTH WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL STANDS AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL GOLD DELVERIES.

HISTORY: LAST TWO PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK

IN MARCH:

THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.

IN FEBRUARY:

WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.

THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:

1. THE BANK OF ENGLAND
2. THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)

THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)

DETAILS ON APRIL COMEX MONTH

IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2577 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH OF APRIL CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A LOT BIGGER THAN FROM OUR PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AT 1456 CONTRACTS

THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS.

THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 219 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1.2025.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING. 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL .…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A TINY SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A TINY SIZED 50 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /APRIL  50 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 50 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2577 CONTRACTS IN THAT 50 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2527 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALLISH GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH GAIN IN PRICE OF $50.50 FOR MONDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED  ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOWER OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX!

THE ENTIRE GAIN IN OI AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO:

1. CONTINUATION OF MONTH END SPREADERS
2. LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS

T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1456 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S THESE PAST FEW MONTHS,, THE FED HAS BEEN EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. DURING OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK, A HUGE RAID WAS ORDERED BY THE FED WITH END OF THE MONTH TRADING ( FEB 25 THROUGH FEB 28) AS THE GOLD PRICE GOT HAMMERED A BIT WITH ONLY THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD LOWERING! . AND ,FOR MARCH, WE HAD+ ANOTHER 5 DAY MEGA ISSUANCE BUT CORRESPONDING MEGA RAIDS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT WEDNESDAY MARCH 17, THE 38,393 T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD!

THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:

1. STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
2. LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.

MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH AND APRIL. (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON FEB 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR//MONTH END SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE JANUARY OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING AND AGAIN WITH FEBRUARY OPTION EXPIRY MONTH. HALF WAY THROUGH THE JANUARY COMEX MONTH, THE CROOKS ISSUED FIVE CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF T.A.S KNOWING THAT THEY WERE GOING TO INITIATE HUGE RAIDS ON OUR METALS. THEN THEY ISSUED IN LATE FEB, ANOTHER 5 CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ ISSUANCES. AND THEN, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN COMEX HISTORY WE WITNESSED THREE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF MEGA HUGE 30,000 + T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUANCES: JANUARY, FEB AND MARCH. WE ARE NOW FACING THIS WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LONDON OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY (APRIL 30) WHERE BOTH SPREADERS WILL BE IN ACTION STOPPING GOLD’S ADVANCE.

STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL

// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES

AND NOW LAST 4 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD

YEAR 2025:

JAN 2025:

113.30 TONNES

FEB: 2025:

256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)

MARCH:

STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES  WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

APRIL:

STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 51 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES  EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes

2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES

FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK

= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY

MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)

APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)

COMEX GOLD TRADING/APRIL CONTRACT MONTH

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $50.50/ /)/AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY COUPLED WITH CONTINUATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION  AS THEY WERE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE $3,400 AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS THEY SUCCEEDED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO STOP THE PENETRATION OF OUR $3,400 DOLLAR GOLD BARRIER SO FAR.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING

THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD) THIS PAST MONTH.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /APRIL TRADING

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES

THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH

EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.

MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3

TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.

NOW APRIL, ISSUES ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES

SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK/APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!

ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.

STANDING FOR GOLD NOW FOR APRIL:

APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..

ANALYSIS APRIL DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FIRST DAY NOTICE;

WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5.919 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL FIRST RECORDED AT 166.964 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY 7 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCES FOR 8.3576 TONNES.

ALSO TODAY WE RECORD ANOTHER 42 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 4200 OZ OR 0.1306 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD OUR 8.3576 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY OF 201.573 TONNES AND THUS STANDING FOR GOLD FOR APRIL IS NOW 209.953 TONNES, THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED!

ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $50.50

WE HAD A MONSTROUS 1808 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2577 CONTRACTS OR 257700 0Z (8.015 TONNES)

confirmed volume MONDAY 230,204.. contracts: FAIR volume////

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

APRIL

// THE APRIL 2025 GOLD CONTRACT

APRIL29

INITIAL

dealer deposits: 0 entry

TOTAL WEIGHT; 0 TONNES

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we have 2 customer entries

i) Into HSBC: 38,934.861 oz

1211 kilobars
ii) Into Stonex: 16,010.260 oz

498 kilobars
total: 1709 kilobars or 1.709 tonnes

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withdrawals:

1 entries

b) Out of Looms: 97,031.718 oz (3018 kilobrs)


total withdrawal: 97,031.718 (3.018 tonnes)

adjustments: 5//first 4 dealer to customer

a)Loomis: dealer to customer: brinks 23,438.079

b) JPMorgan: 16,397.079 oz

c) Loomis 14,371.497 oz

d) Manfra: 20,833.848 oz

e)Customer to dealer malca: 67,227.741 oz

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AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL STANDS AT 52 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 198. WE HAD 240 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY. THUS WE GAINED 42 CONTRACTS OR 4200 OZ (0.1306 TONNES) AS WE EXPERIENCED ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DESIRED TO TAKE PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER HERE. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. MID APRIL’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6.1619 TONNES REPRESENTED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS HIGHEST RECORDED WAS AT 5.90 TONNES.

MAY GAINED 540 CONTRACTS UP TO 8425 CONTRACTS WHICH IS A SHOCKER AS NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA AND WE ARE 1 DAY AWAY FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE!!!!!. MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND WE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A MEGA WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH EVEN THOUGH IT IS AN OFF MONTH!(APPROX 26 TONNES WILL STAND)

JUNE LOST ONLY 735 CONTRACTS TO 323,559. JUNE WILL STILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH.

We had 0 contracts filed for today representing 0 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (64,754 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL (52 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals  6,480,600 OZ  OR 201.573 TONNES

to which we add our 7 exchange for risk issuances for April of 8.3576 tonnes

= 209.953 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:  No of notices filed so far (64,754 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of APRIL (52 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz) which equals  6,480,600 OZ OR 201.573 TONNES + 8.3576 tonnes ex for risks = 209.953 tonnes

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.: 209.953 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL IS FOLLOWING SUIT..

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,770,025.821 oz 55.06 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 41,577,603.790 oz  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,715,556.875 or 644.34 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 20,862,046.915 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 18,945,531oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 589.28tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

// THE APRIL 2025  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

APRIL 29

INITIAL

0 entries/dealer

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deposits customer side

3 entries

i)Into ASAHI: 439,253.400 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 1,771,853.920 oz

iii) Into CNT 351,932.676 oz

total deposit: 2,563,039.976 oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx) withdrawal customer acct

1 withdrawal entry


i) Loomis
1,210,923.420 oz







total withdrawal: 1,210,923.420 oz

ADJUSTMENTs 0

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 200.593million oz/497.746 oz million  or 40.16%

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 163.205 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 499.098Million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2025 OI: 1 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT. WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 5,000 OZ

MAY SAW A LOSS OF 9761 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 17,643 CONTRACTS. MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING THIS MONTH.

(PROBABLY NORTH OF 12,000 CONTRACTS OR 60 MILLION OZ)

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 34 CONTRACTS UP TO 3054 CONTRACTS.

JULY GAINED 9857 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,079

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 or 0.000 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 93,412 strong//

AND NOW APRIL DELIVERIES:

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3192 X5,000 oz = 15.960 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (1) AND the number of notices served upon today (0 )x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the APRIL 2025 contract month:  (3192) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL(1) minus number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL contract month equating to 15.965 MILLION OZ . WE MUST NOW ADD OUR 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON MONDAY MARCH 31 AND APRIL 4/NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 19.965 MILLION OZ

 New total standing:  19.965 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of APRIL.

We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.

There are 163.205million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

APRIL29   WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

APRIL28   WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

APRIL25   WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES

APRIL24   WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES

APRIL23   WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES

APRIL22   WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES

APRIL21   WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES

APRIL17  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES

APRIL16  WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL15  WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL14  WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL11  WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES

/APRIL10  WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES

APRIL9  WITH GOLD UP $83.50 TODAY// MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.171 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.23 TONNES

APRIL8  WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.78 TONNES

APRIL3  WITH GOLD DOWN $27.85 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES

APRIL2  WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.37 TONNES

APRIL1  WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.38 TONNES

MARCH 31  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES

MARCH 28  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES

MARCH 27  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES

MARCH 26  WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.36 TONNES

MARCH 25  WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.07 TONNES

MARCH 24  WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 20.08 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.51 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 946.27 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ

APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ

APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ

APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ

APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ

APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION

APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION

APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION

APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION

APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION

APRIL9 WITH SILVER UP $0.96 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.104 MILLION

APRIL8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447,421 MILLION

APRIL3 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.138 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.830 MILLION

APRIL2 WITH SILVER UP 0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .364 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.968 MILLION

APRIL1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION

MARCH 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 0.91000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION

MARCH 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.092 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.422 MILLION

MARCH 27 WITH SILVER UP $.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION

MARCH 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION

MARCH 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 13.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.883 MILLION

MARCH 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.04 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.728 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.234 MILLION

CLOSING INVENTORY 451.925 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

PETER SCHIFF

2, EGON VON GREYERZ

ALASDAIR MACLEOD

3. C Powell and Gata dispatches

4. ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 220

END

END

The Parable Of Goldfinger

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Alexander Zemek-Parkinson via BondVigiliantes.com,

Is there a relationship between the price of gold and bonds? Most vigilantes would agree that there is some correlation based on inflation, with bond yields and the price of gold rising when inflation is on the way up, and vice versa. Most “goldbugs” would probably agree with this assessment. They would say that the metal was a repository of long-term value and was an effective medium for protecting purchasing power. The late Julian Baring was the man with the golden fund1. He presented the relative purchasing power of gold in terms of fixed-price menus at the Savoy, an exercise he frequently undertook with M&G’s former CEO Paddy Lineker. Baring’s results were somewhat mixed, but there can be no doubt of his conclusion that, over time, the gold price not only equalled but outpaced the rate of inflation. It would be easy to conclude, in today’s world of rising bond yields and a historically high gold price, that there is a correlation, and that it is still valid.

But is it? An answer to this can be found in Ian Fleming’s novel, Goldfinger.

Before we turn our attention to Bond, Treasury Bond… Let me enlighten you on the secret life of Ian Fleming. He worked at (but not for) the Bank of England, and in both the film and the novel, he stages a well-crafted scene in one of its palatial offices. He introduces us to a fictional Colonel Smithers, whose job it was to monitor the quantity of gold in the vaults and to stem any bullion ‘leakage’ (smuggling to you and me). Enter the evil Auric Goldfinger, who leads Bond on a merry chase across Europe and the US.

Part of that chase takes Bond to Geneva, where Fleming attended university. Here’s where things get interesting. Goldfinger’s lair where he melts down his gold Rolls-Royce, is on the outskirts of a small village called Coppet4. Fleming gives a detailed description of the village’s ancient chateau, the small forest behind it and the position of a building which houses his foundry. This all exists in real life, except that the foundry is actually the tomb of one of the earliest Bond Vigilantes: the banker Jacques Necker, who was a finance minister under Louis XVI. Necker was popular because he thought debt finance was preferable to placing a heavier tax burden on the public.

Central to Necker’s concept of debt finance was the establishment of a central bank along British principles and a beneficial partnership between sovereign and private investors. System and laws were all-important. He succeeded in raising substantial loans for the beleaguered King as the nation’s political scene deteriorated. His scheme worked for a while, but the debt he created expired worthless. Necker got the sack, the King met the guillotine and a popular government was installed. In its place came the revolutionary interest-free fiat currency called the Assignat. These bills came with a dark warning on their borders5: “Death to counterfeiters, and rewards to denouncers”.

I’ve decided that none of this is a coincidence (or I wouldn’t have an article). What is Fleming actually trying to tell us? The message is clear that there is a link between debt and the value of gold. But does it hold true for inflation?

Below is a graph that is going to come as no surprise to the contemporary Bond Vigilante. It shows an observable correlation between bond yields and CPI. When inflation goes up, bond yields go up. When it comes down, bond yields come down. Nothing exciting.

Source: Bloomberg

Now, let’s look at that again with the same bonds but set against the price of gold instead. We are looking for moments where the yield on the bonds fall and the gold price goes up to seek out some form of correlation between the two asset classes that we are told by textbooks exists.

Source: Bloomberg

Admittedly, a tricky graph there but there are a couple of times where we can see this in action. We see in ’82, ’87 and ’07 clear points where the yields fell and the gold price went up reflecting the ‘flight to safety’ that these trades tend to represent. So we are seeing a negative correlation in action. This sort of thing happens at times of market distress and when things in global markets look dicey.

Of late though, once you dial in on the rolling correlation between the price of gold and the real yield of US Treasuries over the last 20 years, that relationship has begun to break down. In the last 5 years, the correlation has hovered around zero thanks to the recent rise in the gold price. So quite literally there is no correlation between the two assets (and we know there has certainly been market distress recently).

Source: https://www.longtermtrends.net/gold-vs-real-yields/

So what then should we make of gold recently breaking the $3,000 mark? Is this significant for bond markets? Yes.

Things become clearer when we start considering broader macroeconomic movements over the last 50 years. From the 1980s onward, global market dynamics started to change with the introduction of Reaganomics, the Cold War summit and the widespread acceptance of globalisation. The world got smaller and the peace dividend grew, and with it came the development of broad mechanisms for an international system of freer trade. To the astonishment of Julian Baring, bond prices flew as global inflation fell and international cooperation improved. Bond risk premia dwindled.

Then, with the credit crisis of 2007 and the sovereign debt crisis of 2009, gold got moving again and made up for lost time. Why? Fear and uncertainty needled their way back into the bond markets and to gold’s residual value. In both government and commercial bond markets, investors began to demand higher yields8 because the benefits of globalisation seemed to be fast-disappearing9. We now appear to face a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, and quantitative easing, which eventually supported bond prices at artificially high levels, has gone into reverse. Just as the peace dividend now seems to be on the wane, the risk vectors have begun to rise.

Fleming, at the time of Goldfinger, was facing another series of global transformations: the wane of the Bretton Woods system, the possible change of the pound to a fiat currency and their effect upon the fabric of British social and political constructs10.  

Gold has begun to behave like wampum, tulip bulbs and beanie babies11, bubble assets whose unexplained residual value eclipsed their intrinsic value and whose price reflects something other than the commodity it represents. To return to Mr. Baring, the Savoy index would now tell us that a single gold sovereign could buy you roughly 15 meals (a historic high). But where exactly is gold’s additional residual value coming from? I’d return to our friend Colonel Smithers, who supplied the moral to this, our Goldfinger parable.

Whilst bonds are the barometer of trust and faith in a system, Smithers maintains that…

“Gold is the talisman of fear”.

 Cue the Bond theme tune...

5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//RARE EARTHS

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.76 PTS OR .05%%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 36.15 PTS OR 0.16%

// Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.02%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2731 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2738/ Oil UP TO 61.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.50 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING

STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

END

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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 7.2731 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2738 (CCP MANIPULATED)

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 1.76 PTS OR 0.05%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 36.15 PTS OR 0.16%

2. Nikkei closed

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  99.09// EURO FALLS TO 1.1382 DOWN 26 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.325//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.59…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR DOWN this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5040/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.625 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.173%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.343

3j Gold at $3310.70 Silver at: 33.22  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 99 /100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.76

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and  64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.59// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.325% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8253 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9392 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.252 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.704 UP 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.709 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.45

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.530 UP 2 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.211 UP 5 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.801 UP 5 PTS

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2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Flat As Markets Brace For Earnings Tsunami

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 08:29 AM

US equity futures were unchanged, erasing a modest gain and loss earlier, after General Motors pulled earnings guidance for 2025 and put share buybacks on hold until it has more clarity on the impact of US tariffs. As of 8:15am, S&P futures were flat, while Nasdaq futures were down 0.2% as TSLA rose +1.0% pre-mkt, followed by MSFT +0.5% and AMZN +0.5%. GM dropped in premarket trading, reversing an earlier gain, as it said it would suspend $4 billion of share repurchases. Bond yields and USD are higher (2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are 1.6bp, 2.9bp, 2.7bp higher). Commodities are mixed with WTI futures dropping 1.7%, adding to sharp losses seen Monday, Base Metals higher, and Precious Metals mixed. WSJ repeated a report from last week that Trump may ease his auto tariffs today; Elsewhere, Scott Bessent set July 4 as the goal to pass Trump’s tax cut package; he will announce the debt-ceiling X-date this week or next. Today, the key macro focus will be JOLTS Job Openings and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed as futures whipsaw )Amazon +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple +0.1%, Tesla -0.1%, Meta -0.1%, Nvidia -0.7%). General Motors (GM) shares fall 2.4% premarket after the automaker withdrew 2025 earnings guidance and paused $4 billion in share repurchases until it has more clarity on tariff impacts. Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS) shares soared as much as 46% as it’s among companies Novo Nordisk A/S is partnering with to offer its popular weight-loss drug Wegovy to more US patients at a reduced price. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Crown Holdings (CCK) shares rise 3.3% after the beverage can maker reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note strong volumes in Europe and Brazil
• Honeywell International Inc. (HON) shares gain 4.7% after the company raised its full-year guidance for earnings per share.
• PayPal (PYPL) shares are down 4.1% in premarket trading after the company reported fewer payment transactions in the first quarter than analysts expected.
• Okta (OKTA) shares rise 3.8% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock will replace Berry Global in the S&P MidCap 400 before trading opens May 1.
• Regeneron (REGN) shares fall 7.5% after the drugmaker reported profit and sales for the first quarter that fell short of expectations.
• Ultra Clean (UCTT) shares are down 10% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported first-quarter results that missed expectations and gave an outlook that is below the analyst consensus.
• UPS (UPS) shares are up 2% after the company reported adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter above what analysts expected
• Waste Management (WM) shares fall 1.7% after the firm’s first-quarter update missed revenue expectations and free cash flow dropped, with analysts saying that investors could have been hoping for more in order to support the stock’s year-to-date rally
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares are up 10% as the chipmaker is set for its sixth session of straight gains to match February’s winning streak

As Bloomberg notes, after weeks of intense volatility, markets now seem to be in a holding pattern. Gold is consolidating after hitting record highs, the DXY dollar index remains below its key 100 level, and oil is drifting lower. For investors, it’s difficult to find consensus, with risk management, confidence, and the guiding narrative on US exceptionalism upended by tariffs.

“With the uncertainty created by the tariffs we need to start pricing at least a probability of a US recession,” Johanna Kyrklund, chief investment officer at Schroders Plc, told Bloomberg TV. “As we analyze each company stock-by-stock, we’re looking for that risk to growth.”

Tariff sentiment continues to drive price action, with investors weighing plans by the Trump administration to ease the impact of auto tariffs by lifting some levies on foreign parts for cars and trucks made inside the US. However, it doesn’t look like a trade resolution is coming anytime soon. China’s top diplomat warned countries against caving in to US tariff threats, and Trump’s tactics are only serving to make China’s Xi Jinping more popular. At home, Treasury Secretary Bessent set a July 4 goal to pass a multi-trillion dollar tax cut package to appease voters getting fed up of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Still, with just over a third of S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results, of those, 75% have beat estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P 500-listed companies worth $20 trillion are set to deliver results this week in one of the heaviest for 2025 earnings seasons. But the next few days are key: companies worth $20 trillion are set to deliver results this week in one of the heaviest for 2025 earnings seasons.  

Beyond the plethora of earnings, investors will be tracking data for clues on economic resilience in the face of tariffs. Prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will be guided by Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures. Sentiment earlier was boosted by signs of easing trade tensions after a White House official said imported automobiles would be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. 

In Canada, the Liberal Party is projected to win a fourth consecutive election, giving a mandate to former central banker Mark Carney.

European stocks rise 0.4%, with risk sentiment improving after the US said imported autos would be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. Miners, travel and banks are the strongest-performing European sectors, while the IBEX lags peers, dropping 0.5%, as Spain deals with the fallout of a massive blackout. In earnings, Deutsche Bank shares rise after its trading unit hit a record. HSBC climbs after announcing a fresh share buyback. BP shares fall after the oil major cut its buyback as profit missed forecasts. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Rheinmetall shares rise as much as 7.3% after smashing expectations across the board with analysts praising a blowout quarter.
• Deutsche Bank shares gain as much as 4.6% after the lender posted a strong set of results, led by its trading unit hitting a record in the first quarter amid high market volatility.
• Neste shares gain as much as 13% after the Finnish refiner posted an increase in margins within its renewable product unit in the first quarter results.
• HelloFresh shares jump as much as 12% after the meal-kit company reported first-quarter adjusted Ebitda that beat estimates by roughly 30%, a sign that the firm is hastening its pivot to profitability as it cuts fulfillment and marketing expenses.
• Amundi shares slide as much as 2.4% after the investment manager’s first-quarter earnings showed a mixed performance that could weigh on consensus estimates, according to analysts.
• Porsche shares fall as much as 7.6%, their steepest drop since early February, after the luxury carmaker issued another profit warning.
• Deutsche Boerse shares fall as much as 5.7% after the German stock-exchange operator reported earnings for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Lufthansa shares fall as much as 2.9%. Results for the first quarter are largely in line and the carrier expects strong demand during the second quarter, though analysts note that weakening demand on the North Atlantic presents warning signs ahead of the peak summer season.
• Volvo Cars shares fall as much as 11% to a record low after the Swedish automaker posted first-quarter results that missed estimates and withdrew guidance for this year and next due to uncertainty around US tariffs.
• Elekta shares drop as much as 6.2% after an unidentified holder offered up to 15m shares via Goldman Sachs at a discount of 5.5% vs. Monday’s close, according to terms seen by Bloomberg.
• Nordic Semi shares slide as much as 9.4% after the chipmaker forecast 2Q sales below consensus estimates, citing increased risks from trade tensions and tariffs.

Asian equities advanced, rising to the highest level this month, on a rally in some Chinese technology shares and a sentiment boost from further signs of the US dialing down its trade rhetoric. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7% Tuesday. TSMC and Meituan provided the biggest boost to the gauge, while India’s Reliance Industries extended its rally triggered by better-than-expected earnings. Benchmarks advanced in Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and South Korea. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Asian markets have largely recovered from the hit sparked by President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcements on April 2 amid hopes for trade deals. In the latest positive sign, Trump is on track to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, with changes sought by the industry that would lift some levies on foreign parts made inside the US.

• Australia: S&P/ASX 200 +0.92%, extending its winning streak to a 4th straight session as investors brushed off global trade uncertainties. Domestically, expectations are growing that the RBA will deliver another 25-bps cut in May, amid rising economic uncertainty and escalating global trade concerns. Investors are now awaiting Australian inflation data, due Wednesday, for further insight into the RBA’s next move.
• Taiwan: TAIEX +1%, was once again the best performing market in the region as sentiment continues to improve following recent rally in the US. TSMC 2330 TT +0.6% led the way as it closed above TWD900 for the first time since the tariff selloff in the first week of April. Small/mid-caps continued to outperform, as OTC index have rallied for 6th straight days, while beaten down AI ROBOTICS/BBU plays surged today.
• Korea: KOSPI +0.65%, rebounded. led by locals’ inflow. Locals extended their net buying streak for 3 consecutive days, mainly buying Tech (+$69mn) and Financials (+$94mn) today while foreigners remained as net sellers of equities, mainly selling Transport Equipment (-$231mn, comprised heavily of Shipbuilders, Defense, and Autos). Hanwha Ocean 042660 KR -12.1% as the name plunged after Co’s shareholder KDB announced to raise up to W1.1trn (c. $735mn) through a block deal. Meanwhile, Korean Autos (KRXAUTO +1.6%) gained as President Trump is expected to soften the impact of this auto tariffs.
• Japan: The market is closed today (Showa Day) and will resume trading on April 30th.
• China: SHSZ300 -0.2%, traded choppy as Sino-US trade uncertainty weighed on sentiment. China reiterated that it is not involved in trade talks with the US. Small cap and TMTs overthrown large cap but neither of them gave a strong conviction. Innovance 300124 CH +4% post earnings beat. Healthcare rebounded, but A is lagging H. Xinqi pharma 300573 +14% post earnings 3x in 1Q. There is also a peer bank report released yesterday calling for China HC re-rating, especially in the domestic pure revenue names like Ping An Good Doctor, and Ali health.
• HK: HSI +0.2%. SB turned net seller of -US$827mm today, continuing general trend of outflows from last week. On the flows front, the desk saw active managers sell into liquidity from passive buying. Wuxi AppTec 2359 HK +4.2% after 1Q25 earnings beat on both top and bottom line. Geely 175 HK also +4.2% after subsidiary Volvo indicated they would reduce costs. In contrast, BYD 1211 HK -2.6% as concerns of waning demand from yesterday persisted.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% after falling 0.5% on Monday, when a disappointing manufacturing activity report added to concerns over US economic growth; haven currencies the yen and Swiss franc, were the biggest underperformers versus the dollar, down 0.6% and 0.4% respectively

• CAD/USD was little-changed at 1.3831, outperforming other Group-of-10 currencies which were lower across the board
• EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.1388; 10-year bund yield fell 3bps to 2.49%
• GBP/USD also slipped, pulling away from a three-year high; gilts edged up, tracking gains in other European bonds

In rates, treasury futures drift lower into early US session, unwinding a portion of gains seen Monday and underperforming core European bonds. US yields cheaper by 1bp to 3bp across the curve with 2s10s steeper by 1bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade back up 3bps to around 4.24% with bunds and gilts outperforming by 4bp and 5.5bp in the sector.

In commodities, WTI drifts 1.6% lower to trade near $61.03. Spot gold falls roughly $29 to trade near $3,315/oz. Most base metals are in the green. Bitcoin climbs to around $95,000. 

The US economic calendar includes March wholesale inventories, February S&P CoreLogic house prices (9am), March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence (10am) and April Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Cipollone and Holzmann, and the BoE’s Ramsden. The Fed’s talking heads remain mute thanks to the communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting. Finally, earnings releases include Starbucks, Visa, Pfizer and UPS.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.6%, CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.23%
• VIX -0.3 points at 24.86
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1222.16
• euro -0.2% at $1.1394
• WTI crude -1.4% at $61.17/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth straight election, handing Mark Carney a mandate but with a narrow margin of victory. The loonie was steady. The Liberals led with 168 seats, ahead of the Conservative Party’s 144 but short of the 172 required for a majority. The Bloc Québécois would hold the balance of power in a minority government, raising the likelihood of a looser fiscal policy than Carney wants. Carney vowed to win the trade war with the US and strengthen alliances with other countries. BBG
• President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S. WSJ
• White House said Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package, while it was separately reported that Bessent said he hopes the Trump tax bill can be done by July 4th.
• US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q2): expects to borrow USD 514bln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming end of June cash balance of 850bln (prev. guided USD 123bln, assuming end of June cash balance USD 850bln).
• China’s copper stockpiles are on track to dwindle to nothing in just a few months, as the market suffers “one of the greatest tightening shocks” in its history on fears of US tariffs. FT
• China said it’s open to working with US companies after halting Boeing jet deliveries. India plans to highlight its large pipeline of Boeing orders and potential for more to secure a favorable trade deal with the US. BBG
• China said the US should stop making threats and pursue dialogue based on mutual respect. Earlier, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries against caving in to tariff threats. BBG
• Eurozone inflation expectations rise, with 12-month climbing 30bp to 2.9% (highest since Apr ’24) and 36-month advancing 10bp to 2.5% (highest since Mar ’24). ECB
• Pakistan’s army said it shot down an Indian spy drone along their disputed border in the Kashmir region, as tensions rise over last week’s militant attacks. BBG
• A union representing West Coast dockworkers has sharply criticized President Trump over his “reckless” tariffs that will hurt American workers. The union noted the tariffs have created tension with allies and are a “direct attack” on the working class. The Hill
• Scott Bessent set a July 4 goal to pass Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax cut package. He also said the debt-ceiling X date will be announced this week or next. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

• US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, according to WSJ citing sources. Furthermore, a White House official said those actions are expected on Tuesday and Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and American workers, while Lutnick added this deal rewards companies who manufacture domestically, as well as provides a runway to manufacturers who have expressed commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive.
• China’s MOFCOM said on the report that Boeing flew back three 737 MAX planes to be delivered to Chinese airlines, that China and the US have maintained long-term mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of civil aviation, while it added the US wielded the big stick of tariffs to seriously impact the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and many enterprises were unable to carry out normal trade and investment activities.
• Italian PM Meloni says times are not mature yet for an EU-US summit, according to Corriere Della Sera.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with some of the gains capped following the choppy performance stateside and in holiday-thinned conditions with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, while reports that US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs saw a muted reaction. ASX 200 gained amid outperformance in the energy, tech and resources sectors, while miners were also lifted as  participants digested output updates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the mainland lagged owing to uncertainty from the US-China trade war with US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently commenting that it is up to China to de-escalate and that he has an “escalation ladder in his back pocket”, while China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated its denial regarding a Trump-Xi call and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that compromise and backing down would only embolden the bully.

Top Asian News

• Japan and Malaysia are reportedly exploring broader economic ties including AI and automotive.
• Alibaba (9988 HK) introduced Qwen3 to set a new benchmark in open-source AI with hybrid reasoning.
• Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 strikes China’s Tibet region, via CENC.
• Agricultural Bank (1288 HK) Q1 (CNH) Revenue 186bln (exp. 185bln), Net Income 72.1bln (exp. 73.95bln), +2.2% Y/Y, NII 140.6bln (exp. 142.7bln), CET1 11.23%.
• Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK) Q1 (CNH) NII 156.78bln (exp. 161.29bln), Net Income 84.70bln, -4% Y/Y.
• China Construction Bank (939 HK) Q1 (CNH) NII 141.92bln, NIM 1.41%.
• Bank of China (3988 HK) Q1 (CNY) Net 54.36bln (exp. 57.4bln), NIM 1.29%, Operating Income 165bln (exp. 155bln)

European bourses opened modestly firmer/flat, but some modest pressure crept into the complex as the morning progressed – with indices generally off best levels, to show a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Basic Resources takes the top spot, followed closely by Media and Banks. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in BP (-4%); the continued pressure in the crude complex is also not helping. Autos find themselves towards the middle of the bunch. For the sector more generally, US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, via WSJ. For stock specifics, Porsche AG (-5%) dips after it cut FY25 guidance; Volvo Car (-8.3%) reported a significant miss on its EBIT and Revenue figure and launched a SEK 18bln cost and cash action plan.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: March: See inflation in next 12 months at 2.9% (prev. 2.6%); 3y ahead sees 2.5% (prev. 2.4%); 12-month is highest since April 2024. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were stable in March, standing at -1.2%.
• ECB’s Cipollone says that ECB staff estimates suggest that the recently observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2ppts in 2025.

FX

• USD is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s losses that were in part driven by a soft outturn for Dallas Fed Manufacturing data. On the trade front, US President Trump is expected today to announce measures to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs, according to WSJ. DXY has risen as high as 99.31 but is yet to venture near Monday’s best at 99.83.
• EUR/USD has faded some of its recent gains and failed to sustain the 1.1400 status with recent price action largely driven by moves in the greenback. Spanish CPI metrics which printed hotter-than-expected on a Y/Y, M/M and core basis. EUR/USD is currently contained within Monday’s 1.1329-1.1425 range.
• USD/JPY marginally rebounded from support around the 142.00 level after sliding yesterday owing to the early initial risk aversion and lower US yield environment but with the recovery limited in the absence of Japanese participants. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 142.57 but is some way off Monday’s opening level at 143.57.
• GBP is a touch softer after Monday’s session of outperformance which didn’t appear to be driven by any obvious catalyst. BoE’s Ramsden is due later; Cable matched its YTD high printed yesterday at 1.3444 before pulling back.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the greenback amid a lack of pertinent newsflow out of Australia and New Zealand. That will change tomorrow for AUD with Australian Q1 CPI due on deck.
• CAD in focus after Canada’s ruling Liberals, led by Mark Carney, won the national election. However, the outcome was closer than predicted by polls and will require the party to form a minority government. Accordingly, initial support for CAD has faded as markets reprice away from expectations of a majority government. USD/CAD currently sits towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 1.3816-92 range.
• Canada’s ruling Liberals led by Mark Carney won the national election but will need to form a minority government, according to CTV.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2029 vs exp. 7.2781 (Prev. 7.2043).

Fixed Income

• A contained start for fixed income given the Japanese holiday (Showa Day) overnight, meaning that there was no cash trade. USTs currently at the lower-end of a very thin 111-22 to 111-30 band and one that is within Monday’s 111-10 to 111-31 confines. Focus ahead is on, US Consumer Confidence, Advance Goods Trade and JOLTS Job Openings.
• Bunds is modestly firmer. On the data front, Spain’s inflation printed hotter-than-expected across the board and sent Bunds to a 131.16 low with Alphabet’s presence in the market perhaps also weighing. Thereafter, Bunds have recovered a touch and are back into the green and just off a 131.46 session high; a high that printed as the European risk tone came under a little bit of pressure after the Russian Kremlin said Ukraine has not responded to its latest ceasefire proposal.
• Gilts are flat given the lack of leads from sparse overnight trade and a European morning that has been devoid of UK-specifics aside from earnings. At the lower end of a 92.96 to 93.25 band, comfortably within Monday’s 92.79 to 93.33 range. BoE’s Ramsden is due later.
• UK sells GBP 900mln 1.25% 2054 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.31x (prev. 3.06x) & real yield 2.175% (prev. 2.126%).
• Italy sells EUR 7.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.95% 2030, 3.60% 2035 BTP & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 2033 CCTeu.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) kicks of debut sale of EUR debt 4yr IPTs mid-swaps +85bps area. 8yr IPTs mid-swaps +105bps area. 12yr IPTs mid-swaps +125bps area.

Commodities

• Crude is on the backfoot, extending on the prior day’s losses; there has been little by way of fresh oil-specific newsflow, so focus has been on updates out of Russia/Ukraine; most recently, Russia’s Kremlin suggested Ukraine had not responded to offers to commence negotiations. Brent July’25 currently trades in a USD 63.62-64.81/bbl range.
• TTF is lower on the day, after finishing Monday’s session modestly higher, surrounding a number of updates including the blackout in Spain and a three-day ceasefire proposal from Russia. With Spain and Portugal’s blackout almost fully resolved today’s attention now shifts to Russia’s ceasefire proposal, announced for May 8th-11th. As it stands, Russia says Ukraine is not responding to the proposal.
• Spot gold continues its reversal from recent record highs, with a number of risk events ahead including US consumer confidence and pivotal speakers such as Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent who are likely to speak on auto tariffs. Thus far, today’s low has been recorded at USD 3,314/oz, with a high of USD 3,359/oz.
• Copper is a little firmer after a broad base metals bid this morning, lifting it from near session lows of USD 9,368/t, to session highs of USD 9,455/t, currently holding just off best levels.
• Spain’s PM said the government will release 3 days worth of strategic oil reserves, while the grid operator later restored nearly all power.
• China’s copper supplies are on track to be depleted in just a few months as the market suffers one of the greatest tightening shocks due to fears of US tariffs, according to commodities trading house Mercuria cited by FT.
• Kazakhstan Q1 oil exports +7% Y/Y to 1.63mln BPD, according to Reuters calculations and official data.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump intends to extend the two-month deadline allocated for US-Iran negotiations, according to Israel Hayom citing Israeli officials
• Gaza talks in Cairo are said to be witnessing a “significant breakthrough” and parties agreed on a number of issues including consensus on a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, although some sticking points remain including Hamas arms, according to Reuters citing two Egyptian sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Explosions were heard in Kyiv after the Ukraine air force issued air raid alerts and air defence systems were engaged in repelling a Russian air attack.
• Russian Kremlin says Ukraine has not responded to many offers by President Putin to commence negotiations without any preconditions, according to Tass Direct talks with Ukraine need to commence, adding this is primary and the legitimacy of Zelensky is secondary. 30-day ceasefire is impossible without settling all the nuances.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Mar P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.3%
• 9:00 am: Feb FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 9:00 am: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 4.7%, prior 4.67%
• 10:00 am: Mar JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7500k, prior 7568k
• 10:00 am: Apr Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 88, prior 92.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s shorts and sandals weather here in the UK which is lovely unless it forces you to look at the horrible brusing of my broken little toe. Enjoy the sunshine if you’re in Europe this week.

After last week’s rally, markets saw a choppy start to a busy week with the S&P 500 recovering from a -1% decline to narrowly post a fifth consecutive gain (+0.06%) last night, even as the Mag-7 (-0.36%) lagged ahead of Meta and Microsoft earnings tomorrow and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. 10yr Treasuries (-2.7bps) also gained for a fifth session in a row, falling to their lowest level in three weeks at 4.21%.

On tariffs, the latest newsflow was actually fairly positive at face value, as US officials continued to sound optimistic about potential trade deals yesterday. For instance, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that they’d had “many countries come forward and present some very good proposals”. He also said “I would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign”. Separately, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said that more details on trade talks would be announced this week. And later on, Bessent tweeted that they were “continuing to make substantive movement on negotiations with many of our trading partners.” So the rhetoric from the administration is still pointing towards negotiations, rather than further escalation. However, there was still little sign of dialogue between the US and China, with Bessent saying “I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate”. Overnight the incremental positive news has continued with the White House confirming an earlier WSJ story that imported autos would not also face additional aluminum and steel tariffs. This has helped lift S&P (+0.19%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) futures this morning.

This steady flow of mostly more positive trade headlines lifted the S&P 500 from as low as -1.02% mid-way through yesterday’s session to ultimately close marginally higher on the day (+0.06%). That left the index still narrowly in technical correction territory, closing -10.02% below its peak in mid-February, but its slightly above that mark again this morning. It was actually a decent day in terms of market breadth, with two-thirds of the S&P 500 constituents moving higher on the day and its equal-weighted version up +0.30%. By contrast, tech stock underperformance saw the Magnificent 7 decline by -0.36%, led by a -2.05% fall for Nvidia as the chipmaker struggled following news that China’s Huawei is set to test a new chip that could end up being a competitor.

Earlier in yesterday’s session, the mood at the lows wasn’t helped by the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey, which plunged to its lowest level since May 2020. Specifically, the general business activity index was down to -35.8, and the raw materials prices index also moved up to its highest level since mid-2022, at 48.4. So that added to the stagflationary narrative, although it’s worth noting that this is a survey once again rather than hard data, and so far the surveys have tended to suggest a worse performance relative to the hard data. As a result, markets weren’t too reactive to the print directly, but it added to the more downbeat backdrop going into this week’s other releases.

US Treasuries saw a more consistent performance, with 10yr yields falling -2.7bps to 4.21% and 2yr yields down -5.4bps to 3.70%, their lowest level since April 4th. Yesterday afternoon, the Treasury released its latest quarterly borrowing estimates, with the Q2 issuance estimate revised up to $514bn from $123bn due to a lower starting cash balance and with the Q3 estimate at $554bn. These figures were slightly above our rate strategists expectations but this may be due to the Treasury not yet factoring in increased tariff revenues. The announcement had limited impact on yields, which closed near the session’s lows. In other fiscal news, after the US close Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration hoped to have Congress pass their tax bill by July 4.

With rates moving lower, one US asset that did lose ground yesterday was the dollar, with the dollar index down -0.54%, as the safe haven currencies of the Swiss franc (+1.02%) and Japanese yen (+1.17%) outperformed.

Back in Europe, there was a stronger risk-on tone, which reinstated the pattern of European outperformance in 2025. In fact, at the intraday peak, the DAX (+0.13% at the close) even managed to entirely erase its losses since Liberation Day, although by the end of the session it was still -0.53% beneath its levels on April 2. Nevertheless, the index was still up for the 8th time in the last 9 sessions, and those gains were echoed across the continent. For instance, the STOXX 600 (+0.53%) advanced for a 5th consecutive day, as did France’s CAC 40 (+0.50%). The smallest yet most notable rise was the FTSE 100 (+0.02%), which posted an 11th consecutive advance for the first time since 2019, and if it manages a 12th consecutive gain today, that would be the first time since 2017.

Consistent with that risk-on tone, European sovereign bond yields also moved higher, with those on 10yr bunds (+5.1bps), OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+5.5bps) all rising. Likewise, credit spreads tightened further, with Euro HY spreads down -4bps to 349bps, edging closer to their Liberation Day level of 322bps.

In political news, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is projected to win the Canadian federal election. However, with projections showing the Liberals leading in only 155 of 343 seats – shy of the 172 needed for a majority – Carney is likely facing a minority government and will need to negotiate with other parties to pass legislation. The Conservatives are currently projected to win 150 seats. So a remarkable comeback for the Liberals relative to their January lows when they were over 25pp down in the polls but seemingly not quite as good as they would have hoped as the polls closed last night.

In Asia the fresh overnight news on auto tariffs we discussed at the top seems to be helping push markets higher. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.91%) has hit a near 2-month high with the KOSPI (+0.65%) and the Hang Seng (+0.38%) also edging higher while Chinese equities are bucking the positive trend with the CSI (-0.14%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.05%) seeing minor losses. Elsewhere, Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday. There’s no trading of cash Treasuries in Asia as Japan is closed.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the JOLTS report for March, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April, and the FHFA’s house price index for February. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we’ll get the M3 money supply for March, and the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Cipollone and Holzmann, and the BoE’s Ramsden. Finally, earnings releases include Starbucks, Visa, Pfizer and UPS.

2b) European opening report

US equity futures & USD modestly firmer with focus on reports of Trump easing auto tariff impact, Canada’s Liberals win election – Newsquawk US Market Open

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 06:19 AM

• US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, according to WSJ citing sources.
• European bourses are mixed, whilst US equity futures trade incrementally higher, ahead of a slew of earnings.
• USD attempts to claw back some of Monday’s losses, CHF & JPY lags whilst the Loonie fares better post-election.
• Canada’s ruling Liberals, led by Mark Carney, won the national election but will need to form a minority government.
• Fixed benchmarks are relatively contained into a packed US session.
• Crude complex is on the backfoot, continuing recent losses, while base metals diverge.
• Looking ahead, US Consumer Confidence, Advance Goods Trade, JOLTS Job Openings, Speakers including BoE’s Ramsden, SNB’s Martin & US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

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TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, according to WSJ citing sources. Furthermore, a White House official said those actions are expected on Tuesday and Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and American workers, while Lutnick added this deal rewards companies who manufacture domestically, as well as provides a runway to manufacturers who have expressed commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive.
• China’s MOFCOM said on the report that Boeing flew back three 737 MAX planes to be delivered to Chinese airlines, that China and the US have maintained long-term mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of civil aviation, while it added the US wielded the big stick of tariffs to seriously impact the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and many enterprises were unable to carry out normal trade and investment activities.
• Italian PM Meloni says times are not mature yet for an EU-US summit, according to Corriere Della Sera.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses opened modestly firmer/flat, but some modest pressure crept into the complex as the morning progressed – with indices generally off best levels, to show a mixed picture in Europe.
• European sectors hold a slight positive bias, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Basic Resources takes the top spot, followed closely by Media and Banks. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in BP (-4%); the continued pressure in the crude complex is also not helping.
• Autos find themselves towards the middle of the bunch. For the sector more generally, US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, via WSJ. For stock specifics, Porsche AG (-5%) dips after it cut FY25 guidance; Volvo Car (-8.3%) reported a significant miss on its EBIT and Revenue figure and launched a SEK 18bln cost and cash action plan.
• US equity futures are incrementally firmer, following a tentative trading session in the prior day. In terms of key pre-market movers; NXP Semiconductor (-7%, Q2 guidance light and CEO to retire), Nucor (-0.5%, Q1 beat and positive Q2 guidance).
• Earnings include: HSBC (+1.8%) beat, buyback & dividend; AstraZeneca (-2.5%) mixed, reiterates guidance; BP (-4%) miss and soft vs. prior, buyback at lower-end of forecasts; Adidas (+0.5%) in-line with prelim, cannot produce almost any product in the US currently; Deutsche Bank (+1.6%) beat; Porsche AG (-5%) cuts guidance; Novartis (+0.9%) beat, strong momentum, lifts guidance; Carlsberg (-1.5%) slight miss, affirms guide; Volvo Cars (-8.3%) miss, withdraws guidance.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s losses that were in part driven by a soft outturn for Dallas Fed Manufacturing data. On the trade front, US President Trump is expected today to announce measures to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs, according to WSJ. DXY has risen as high as 99.31 but is yet to venture near Monday’s best at 99.83.
• EUR/USD has faded some of its recent gains and failed to sustain the 1.1400 status with recent price action largely driven by moves in the greenback. Spanish CPI metrics which printed hotter-than-expected on a Y/Y, M/M and core basis. EUR/USD is currently contained within Monday’s 1.1329-1.1425 range.
• USD/JPY marginally rebounded from support around the 142.00 level after sliding yesterday owing to the early initial risk aversion and lower US yield environment but with the recovery limited in the absence of Japanese participants. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 142.57 but is some way off Monday’s opening level at 143.57.
• GBP is a touch softer after Monday’s session of outperformance which didn’t appear to be driven by any obvious catalyst. BoE’s Ramsden is due later; Cable matched its YTD high printed yesterday at 1.3444 before pulling back.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the greenback amid a lack of pertinent newsflow out of Australia and New Zealand. That will change tomorrow for AUD with Australian Q1 CPI due on deck.
• CAD in focus after Canada’s ruling Liberals, led by Mark Carney, won the national election. However, the outcome was closer than predicted by polls and will require the party to form a minority government. Accordingly, initial support for CAD has faded as markets reprice away from expectations of a majority government. USD/CAD currently sits towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 1.3816-92 range.
• Canada’s ruling Liberals led by Mark Carney won the national election but will need to form a minority government, according to CTV.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2029 vs exp. 7.2781 (Prev. 7.2043).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• A contained start for fixed income given the Japanese holiday (Showa Day) overnight, meaning that there was no cash trade. USTs currently at the lower-end of a very thin 111-22 to 111-30 band and one that is within Monday’s 111-10 to 111-31 confines. Focus ahead is on, US Consumer Confidence, Advance Goods Trade and JOLTS Job Openings.
• Bunds is modestly firmer. On the data front, Spain’s inflation printed hotter-than-expected across the board and sent Bunds to a 131.16 low with Alphabet’s presence in the market perhaps also weighing. Thereafter, Bunds have recovered a touch and are back into the green and just off a 131.46 session high; a high that printed as the European risk tone came under a little bit of pressure after the Russian Kremlin said Ukraine has not responded to its latest ceasefire proposal.
• Gilts are flat given the lack of leads from sparse overnight trade and a European morning that has been devoid of UK-specifics aside from earnings. At the lower end of a 92.96 to 93.25 band, comfortably within Monday’s 92.79 to 93.33 range. BoE’s Ramsden is due later.
• UK sells GBP 900mln 1.25% 2054 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.31x (prev. 3.06x) & real yield 2.175% (prev. 2.126%).
• Italy sells EUR 7.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.95% 2030, 3.60% 2035 BTP & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 2033 CCTeu.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) kicks of debut sale of EUR debt 4yr IPTs mid-swaps +85bps area. 8yr IPTs mid-swaps +105bps area. 12yr IPTs mid-swaps +125bps area.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is on the backfoot, extending on the prior day’s losses; there has been little by way of fresh oil-specific newsflow, so focus has been on updates out of Russia/Ukraine; most recently, Russia’s Kremlin suggested Ukraine had not responded to offers to commence negotiations. Brent July’25 currently trades in a USD 63.62-64.81/bbl range.
• TTF is lower on the day, after finishing Monday’s session modestly higher, surrounding a number of updates including the blackout in Spain and a three-day ceasefire proposal from Russia. With Spain and Portugal’s blackout almost fully resolved today’s attention now shifts to Russia’s ceasefire proposal, announced for May 8th-11th. As it stands, Russia says Ukraine is not responding to the proposal.
• Spot gold continues its reversal from recent record highs, with a number of risk events ahead including US consumer confidence and pivotal speakers such as Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent who are likely to speak on auto tariffs. Thus far, today’s low has been recorded at USD 3,314/oz, with a high of USD 3,359/oz.
• Copper is a little firmer after a broad base metals bid this morning, lifting it from near session lows of USD 9,368/t, to session highs of USD 9,455/t, currently holding just off best levels.
• Spain’s PM said the government will release 3 days worth of strategic oil reserves, while the grid operator later restored nearly all power.
• China’s copper supplies are on track to be depleted in just a few months as the market suffers one of the greatest tightening shocks due to fears of US tariffs, according to commodities trading house Mercuria cited by FT.
• Kazakhstan Q1 oil exports +7% Y/Y to 1.63mln BPD, according to Reuters calculations and official data.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Apr) -0.1% vs Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)
• German GfK Consumer Sentiment (May) -20.6 vs. Exp. -26.0 (Prev. -24.5, Rev. -24.3)
• Spanish HICP Flash MM (Apr) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.70%); CPI MM Flash NSA (Apr) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.10%)
• Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Apr) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.30%); Core 2.4% (prev. 2.0%)
• EU Money-M3 Annual Growth (Mar) 3.6% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.0%); Loans to Non-Fin (Mar) 2.3% (Prev. 2.2%); Loans to Households (Mar) 1.7% (Prev. 1.5%)
• EU Services Sentiment (Apr) 1.4 vs. Exp. 2.2 (Prev. 2.4, Rev. 2.2); Economic Sentiment (Apr) 93.6 vs. Exp. 94.5 (Prev. 95.2, Rev. 95.0); Industrial Sentiment (Apr) -11.2 vs. Exp. -10.1 (Prev. -10.6, Rev. -10.7); Consumer Confid. Final (Apr) -16.7 vs. Exp. -16.7 (Prev. -16.7); Selling Price Expec (Apr) 11.0 (Prev. 11.4, Rev. 11.3); Cons Infl Expec (Apr) 29.6 (Prev. 24.4, Rev. 24.5)
• Italian Manufacturing Business Confidence (Apr) 85.7 vs. Exp. 85.4 (Prev. 86.0, Rev. 86.0); Consumer Confidence (Apr) 92.7 vs. Exp. 94.0 (Prev. 95.0)
• Italian Industrial Sales YY WDA (Feb) -1.5% (Prev. 1.7%); Industrial Sales MM SA (Feb) -0.4% (Prev. 3.8%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: March: See inflation in next 12 months at 2.9% (prev. 2.6%); 3y ahead sees 2.5% (prev. 2.4%); 12-month is highest since April 2024. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were stable in March, standing at -1.2%.
• ECB’s Cipollone says that ECB staff estimates suggest that the recently observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2ppts in 2025.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump posted on Truth “As we reach our Historic First 100 Days, I am proud to announce that the Presidential Personnel Office has surpassed 80% of all Political Hires across our largest Departments, including the United States Department of Justice, State, Defense, Treasury, Veterans Affairs, and Commerce.” Trump also posted “The USA lost Billions of Dollars A DAY in International Trade under Sleepy Joe Biden. I have now stemmed that tide, and will be making a fortune, very soon. Stay tuned as we MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
• White House said US President Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package, while it was separately reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hopes the Trump tax bill can be done by July 4th.
• US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q2): expects to borrow USD 514bln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming end of June cash balance of 850bln (prev. guided USD 123bln, assuming end of June cash balance USD 850bln).

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US President Trump intends to extend the two-month deadline allocated for US-Iran negotiations, according to Israel Hayom citing Israeli officials
• Gaza talks in Cairo are said to be witnessing a “significant breakthrough” and parties agreed on a number of issues including consensus on a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, although some sticking points remain including Hamas arms, according to Reuters citing two Egyptian sources.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Explosions were heard in Kyiv after the Ukraine air force issued air raid alerts and air defence systems were engaged in repelling a Russian air attack.
• Russian Kremlin says Ukraine has not responded to many offers by President Putin to commence negotiations without any preconditions, according to Tass Direct talks with Ukraine need to commence, adding this is primary and the legitimacy of Zelensky is secondary. 30-day ceasefire is impossible without settling all the nuances.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a little firmer and trading around USD 94.8k; Ethereum holds around USD 1.8k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with some of the gains capped following the choppy performance stateside and in holiday-thinned conditions with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, while reports that US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs saw a muted reaction.
• ASX 200 gained amid outperformance in the energy, tech and resources sectors, while miners were also lifted as participants digested output updates.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the mainland lagged owing to uncertainty from the US-China trade war with US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently commenting that it is up to China to de-escalate and that he has an “escalation ladder in his back pocket”, while China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated its denial regarding a Trump-Xi call and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that compromise and backing down would only embolden the bully.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan and Malaysia are reportedly exploring broader economic ties including AI and automotive.
• Alibaba (9988 HK) introduced Qwen3 to set a new benchmark in open-source AI with hybrid reasoning.
• Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 strikes China’s Tibet region, via CENC.
• Agricultural Bank (1288 HK) Q1 (CNH) Revenue 186bln (exp. 185bln), Net Income 72.1bln (exp. 73.95bln), +2.2% Y/Y, NII 140.6bln (exp. 142.7bln), CET1 11.23%.
• Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK) Q1 (CNH) NII 156.78bln (exp. 161.29bln), Net Income 84.70bln, -4% Y/Y.
• China Construction Bank (939 HK) Q1 (CNH) NII 141.92bln, NIM 1.41%.
• Bank of China (3988 HK) Q1 (CNY) Net 54.36bln (exp. 57.4bln), NIM 1.29%, Operating Income 165bln (exp. 155bln)

2c) Asian opening report

European futures green after strong bank earnings and auto tariff reports; Canada’s Carney wins election – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 01:09 AM

• US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, according to WSJ citing sources.
• Canada’s ruling Liberals, led by Mark Carney, won the national election but will need to form a minority government.
• APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with gains capped following the choppy performance stateside.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.3% on Monday.
• DXY is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s losses, EUR/USD has slipped back onto a 1.13 handle, USD/JPY bounced from support at 142.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment, Spanish GDP, HICP, EZ Business Sentiment, US Advance Goods Trade, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB’s Cipollone, BoE’s Ramsden, SNB’s Martin & US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Supply from UK & Italy.
• Earnings from Starbucks, Visa, Snap, PPG, SoFi, PayPal, JetBlue, Coca-Cola, UPS, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean, Spotify, HSBC, BP, AstraZeneca, Ocado, Entain Lufthansa, Porsche AG, Deutsche Bank, Capgemini, Amundi, Rexel, Scor, URW, Carlsberg, Novartis, Logitech & BBVA.

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were choppy although most major indices eventually finished in the green after clawing back the losses from an early tech-led sell-off as Huawei’s AI chip ambitions continued to hit NVIDIA (NVDA) and with sentiment also weighed on by a disappointing Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey. Nonetheless, a recovery was seen intraday despite little newsflow with the S&P 500 re-emerging from a brief dip beneath the psychological 5,500 level to notch its fifth consecutive daily gain but with the upside limited ahead of this week’s key earnings and data releases.
• SPX +0.06% at 5,529, NDX -0.03% at 19,427, DJI +0.28% at 40,228, RUT +0.41% at 1,966.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US, according to WSJ citing sources. Furthermore, a White House official said those actions are expected on Tuesday and Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and American workers, while Lutnick added this deal rewards companies who manufacture domestically, as well as provides a runway to manufacturers who have expressed commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.
• White House Press Secretary said trade talks with the UK are moving in a very positive way.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive.
• China’s MOFCOM said on the report that Boeing flew back three 737 MAX planes to be delivered to Chinese airlines, that China and the US have maintained long-term mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of civil aviation, while it added the US wielded the big stick of tariffs to seriously impact the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and many enterprises were unable to carry out normal trade and investment activities.
• The hold-up in the Japan tariff deal is due to the level of commitment to buy oil from the Alaska pipeline, according to FBN’s Gasparino.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump posted on Truth “As we reach our Historic First 100 Days, I am proud to announce that the Presidential Personnel Office has surpassed 80% of all Political Hires across our largest Departments, including the United States Department of Justice, State, Defense, Treasury, Veterans Affairs, and Commerce.” Trump also posted “The USA lost Billions of Dollars A DAY in International Trade under Sleepy Joe Biden. I have now stemmed that tide, and will be making a fortune, very soon. Stay tuned as we MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
• White House said US President Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package, while it was separately reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hopes the Trump tax bill can be done by July 4th.
• US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q2): expects to borrow USD 514bln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming end of June cash balance of 850bln (prev. guided USD 123bln, assuming end of June cash balance USD 850bln).

GLOBAL NEWS

• Canada’s ruling Liberals led by Mark Carney won the national election but will need to form a minority government, according to CTV.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with some of the gains capped following the choppy performance stateside and in holiday-thinned conditions with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, while reports that US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs saw a muted reaction.
• ASX 200 gained amid outperformance in the energy, tech and resources sectors, while miners were also lifted as participants digested output updates.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as the mainland lagged owing to uncertainty from the US-China trade war with US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently commenting that it is up to China to de-escalate and that he has an “escalation ladder in his back pocket”, while China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated its denial regarding a Trump-Xi call and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that compromise and backing down would only embolden the bully.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%) eked mild gains but with the upside limited ahead of upcoming key releases and mega-cap earnings.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.3% on Monday.

FX

• DXY nursed some of yesterday’s losses after weakening against all G10 peers amid lower US Treasury yields and a dismal Dallas Fed survey, while there was some pressure on the buck overnight as its counterparts were briefly supported including CAD after projections that Canada’s ruling Liberals won the election although this eventually petered out and the CAD gave back its gains as it emerged that the Liberals are on course for a minority government.
• EUR/USD faded some of its recent gains and failed to sustain the 1.1400 status with recent price action largely driven by moves in the greenback.
• GBP/USD lingered around a 7-month high after steadily ascending on Monday despite the lack of notable catalysts although there were some optimistic comments on trade talks from the White House Press Secretary who noted discussions with the UK are moving in a very positive way.
• USD/JPY marginally rebounded from support around the 142.00 level after sliding yesterday owing to the early initial risk aversion and lower US yield environment but with the recovery limited in the absence of Japanese participants.
• Antipodeans was indecisive as the data calendar remained very quiet and with participants bracing for upcoming risk events.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2029 vs exp. 7.2781 (Prev. 7.2043).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures took a breather after advancing during Wall St trade amid the choppy risk environment and ahead of a week full of key data releases, while the overnight cash treasuries market was shut owing to the holiday closure in Tokyo.
• Bund futures traded sideways with demand subdued following recent selling pressure and ahead of German GfK Consumer Sentiment.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures remained subdued following yesterday’s declines with pressure from ongoing trade uncertainty as opposed to any oil-related headlines.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said the administration is refilling the strategic oil reserve now, according to CNBC.
• Spain’s PM said the government will release 3 days worth of strategic oil reserves, while the grid operator later restored nearly all power.
• Spot gold pulled back from the prior day’s peak after rallying on the back of a weaker dollar.
• Copper futures swung between gains and losses with initial support from the positive risk appetite in Asia although the gains were eventually wiped out as sentiment in its largest buyer lagged.
• China’s copper supplies are on track to be depleted in just a few months as the market suffers one of the greatest tightening shocks due to fears of US tariffs, according to commodities trading house Mercuria cited by FT.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin marginally retreated with prices back beneath the USD 95,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan and Malaysia are reportedly exploring broader economic ties including AI and automotive.
• Alibaba (9988 HK) introduced Qwen3 to set a new benchmark in open-source AI with hybrid reasoning.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Gaza talks in Cairo are said to be witnessing a “significant breakthrough” and parties agreed on a number of issues including consensus on a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, although some sticking points remain including Hamas arms, according to Reuters citing two Egyptian sources.
• Israeli media reported that Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar announced to resign and will step down on June 15th.
• The fourth round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held in Rome on Saturday, according to Axios’ Ravid citing two sources. It was separately reported that Iran proposed to meet France, Britain and Germany in Rome on May 2nd to discuss the nuclear programme and Europeans have yet to respond to the Iranian proposal for talks this week, according to Reuters sources.
• IAEA deputy chief met with Iran’s deputy nuclear chief in Tehran to discuss outstanding safeguards issues, while they agreed on how to proceed with the issues, continue talks and implement understandings reached.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said the world does not want to wait till May 8th for a ceasefire for it to only be for a few days before killing resumes, while he also commented that a minerals agreement with the US after negotiations has become stronger and more equitable.
• Explosions were heard in Kyiv after the Ukraine air force issued air raid alerts and air defence systems were engaged in repelling a Russian air attack.
• EU and Ukrainian officials fear US President Trump is on the brink of walking away from peace negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow, potentially using minor progress in talks as an “excuse” to say his job is done, according to FT citing sources.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Sunday in which they talked about the next steps in Russia/Ukraine peace talks.

EU/UK

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Apr) -0.1% vs Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)

3 .ASIA

3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3C CHINA

4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN

RENEWAL energy creating a havoc in Spain

(zerohedge)

Power Restored In Spain, Portugal As Net-Zero Becomes Headache For Brussels

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 08:05 AM

Spanish power distributor Red Eléctrica announced on X early Tuesday that 99% of the country’s power capacity had been restored following a daylong, unprecedented blackout that plunged much of Europe’s Iberian Peninsula into chaos and darkness.

As of 0700 local time, Red Eléctrica stated:

• 99.95% of the demand recovered (25,794MW).
• We continue working from the Electrical Control Center for the complete normalization of the system.

The outage paralyzed digital payment systems, disrupted communications, and brought various modes of transportation networks to an apocalyptic standstill. While a Spanish judge has launched an investigation into whether a cyberattack was responsible, early indications suggest the culprit is likely net zero.

Here’s an excerpt from Michael Shellenberger at PUBLIC, who provided an uncomfortable truth about the unhinged liberals in Europe who have been hellbent on retiring fossil fuel power and nuclear generation plants, swapping for unreliable solar and wind:

Despite all these warnings, political and regulatory energy in Europe remained focused on accelerating renewable deployment, not upgrading the grid’s basic stability. In Spain, solar generation continued to climb rapidly through 2023 and early 2024. 

Coal plants closed. Nuclear units retired. 

On many spring days by 2025, Spain’s midday solar generation exceeded its total afternoon demand, leading to frequent negative electricity prices.

The system was being pushed to the limit.

And today, at 12:35 pm, it broke.

…

Spain’s blackout wasn’t just a technical failure. It was a political and strategic failure.

…

Unless Spain rapidly invests in synthetic inertia, maintains and expands its nuclear fleet, or adds some other new form of heavy rotating generation, the risk of future blackouts will only grow worse.

Red Eléctrica has refused to speculate on the cause of the worst blackout in Spain’s history. However, REN, the Portuguese grid operator, said Monday that a rare atmospheric phenomenon in Spain caused by extreme temperature variations was the most likely cause.

Via Daily Mail…

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told reporters that the power blackout was caused by an issue in the European grid. He described it as a “strong oscillation” but did not provide further details. 

Sánchez noted that power was pulled from Morocco and France to restore power in southern and northern parts of Spain. Local grids were adding the production of hydroelectric and combined cycle thermal power plants to stabilize the grid.

Spain’s green energy revolution actually achieved net zero yesterday: blackout. 

.xcom/JamesMelville/status/1917120356524937519?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwt

Great job, Western liberals, on the deranged march to net-zero, culminating in the implosion of part of Europe’s power grid. Meanwhile, China is adding record amounts of coal and nuclear power capacity. It’s almost as if the entire green movement is about de-growth — and, in some cases, seems like sabotage fueled by sheer stupidity.

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS

ISRAEL HAMAS

ISRAEL HAMAS

HEZBOLLAH/.LEBANON

Israel Resumes Pounding Beirut Suburb After Relative Quiet

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

For the third time in the past month, Israel has carried out an airstrike against the Lebanese capital city of Beirut. This latest strike targeted the Hadath neighborhood, a southern suburb of Beirut. They issued a warning telling civilians to evacuate the neighborhood in advance of the attack.

An explosion was reported in the area around 6 pm local time on Sunday, and a plume of smoke was seen rising from the neighborhood. The exact details on what was hit and what casualties, if any, resulted are as yet unclear.

Preliminary reports are that three bombs have hit the area, and it is believed that two different buildings were targeted, though exactly what they are is not entirely clear.

Israel was quick to claim that the attack targeted a Hezbollah weapons depot, and that it housed “high-quality weapons.” They reported informed the US in advance of the attack. Evidence of this claim of a missile depot was not offered.

Israeli media quoted unnamed defense officials as saying this must have been an unusual and dangerous threat because otherwise Israel would not have attacked in such a way. Israel launches multiple attacks on Lebanon effectively every day, and almost always under the pretext of targeting Hezbollah.

Indeed, Beirut wasn’t the only strike of Sunday. Earlier in the day, an Israeli drone attacked a farm near the southern village of Halta, killing one civilian. Here again, the official Israeli narrative was that this civilian was a “Hezbollah operative” who was actively rearming Hezbollah at the time they attacked the farm.

Israel is facing growing criticism for its indiscriminate attacks on Lebanon, which often inflict civilian casualties. Israel only comments on some of the deadly attacks carried out on Lebanon in a given day, and almost always claimed Hezbollah figures were the target, but the evidence simply isn’t there that they’re hitting Hezbollah in any reliable way, and as tensions continue to grow along the border, the Lebanese government is pushing France and the US, the guarantors of the ceasefire Israel is constantly violating, to do something about it.

The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon issued a statement warning the strikes in Beirut were causing panic, though as of yet neither the US nor France has commented on the latest strike. France has tended to be more willing to criticize Israeli aggression, while the US has tended to endorse such attacks.

end

Lebanon must ‘scream,’ increase pressure over Israeli attacks, says Hezbollah’s Qassem

Qassem accused Israel of breaking its ceasefire agreement with Lebanon more than 3000 times.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 29, 2025 11:05Updated: APRIL 29, 2025 11:23

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-851925&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250423_4f3f6c0273729cdb1c25328cc62e06faa2ec0159&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

The Lebanese government must “exert more pressure” to secure a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and end attacks on the country, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said in a speech televised by Hezbollah-owned Al Manar on Monday.

He also called for the release of Lebanese prisoners who have been held in Israel since the US-brokered ceasefire.

“We will not abandon Lebanon’s strength. Even the United States respects a firm stance. Lebanon was strong and will remain strong through its army, its people, and its resistance,” Qassem said. 

Qassem, Hassan Nasrallah’s successor, also called for the return of Lebanese people to their homes in the south of the country. “Whoever thinks that he can do what he wants in Lebanon and prevent the people from returning to their homes is mistaken,” Qassem said.

Lebanon must amplify pressure on Israel, international leaders

“There is no justification” for the IDF’s attack on Dahiyeh on Monday, which took place “with American approval,” Qassem said.

He called for the Lebanese government to respond to the attack by exerting “more pressure” on the US, France, the UN, and the Security Council. “The state cannot demand everything while doing nothing,” he said.

“The pressure applied so far has been light. This is unacceptable. Lebanon should file a complaint with the UN Security Council or summon the US ambassador to the country for an investigation. Lebanon should address Israel’s violations of the ceasefire agreement in every government meeting so that we can be more active and apply more pressure.”

“The Lebanese government should raise its voice on the matter, scream, intensify its talks on the matter, every day it should raise demands on the matter, pressure the US so that it understands that it cannot prosper without stopping the aggression.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz’s office confirmed that the IDF struck Hezbollah infrastructure in the terror organization’s stronghold of Dahiyeh, southern Beirut, on Sunday, as the materials posed a significant threat to Israel.

“Israel will not allow Hezbollah to build up its capabilities and pose any threat anywhere in Lebanon,” the ministry said. “The Lebanese government bears direct responsibility for preventing these threats.”

Violating the ceasefire agreement

Qassem accused Israel of breaking its ceasefire agreement with Lebanon more than 3,000 times.

Lebanon has not violated the ceasefire once, he asserted, and claimed he is “committed” to all the clauses of the agreement. 

WEST BANK

HOUTHIS

IRAN

Iran Says Port Blast Was ‘Negligence’ Amid Reports Missile Fuel Stored Improperly 

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 07:40 PM

As of Monday an Iranian official in Bandar Abbas has said that the major Iranian port fire is 90% extinguished, which means emergency crews have been battling the blaze for over 40 hours. The death toll has since risen to at least 46 amid the ongoing emergency. Over 1,000 injuries have been reported.

The massive, deadly explosion which shocked Iran two days prior is the largest at an Iranian commercial port. The resulting fire ball, partly the result of missile fuel reportedly having detonated, was so large that there was initial widespread speculation that the Israelis were behind it. 

Certainly it wouldn’t have been the first Israeli sabotage attack against vital Iranian infrastructure in recent history. And so it is somewhat of a surprise that the Iranians on Monday have not alleged any kind of external sabotage or interference, but are instead calling it an accident due to negligence

Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni described the blast at the nation’s largest commercial port two days earlier as caused by “negligence” and failure to comply with established safety measures. There is an ongoing investigation.

“Some culprits have been identified and summoned… There were shortcomings, including noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence in terms of passive defense,” Momeni told state TV. He suggested that some materials should not have been kept at the port.

According to The NY Times, a volatile component was improperly stored:

A person with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that what exploded was sodium perchlorate, a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles. The person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.

The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency quoted an official as saying the explosion was likely set off by containers of chemicals, but did not identify the chemicals. What caused them to detonate was not clear, but the Iranian authorities did not suggest it was sabotage or a deliberate attack.

Reddish-orange clouds over the area have further suggested a significant chemical component to the blast, and Iran’s health ministry has declared a state of emergency in the impacted Hormozgan province.

On-the-ground video of the still-smoldering aftermath…

The ministry is warning of airborne toxic pollutants and is urging people to stay indoors and to keep windows closed and wear masks. The fact that the port will have to be halted for a significant amount of time is expected to unleash harm and uncertainty on the already isolated Iranian economy.

RUSSIA VS UKRAINE

Five Significant Disagreements Account For Trump’s Newfound Anger With Putin

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 01:20 PM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The peace process might go kaput if they can’t resolve these issues…

Trump speculated that Russia’s bombing of civilian areas might signal that “maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along”, and then reiterated his earlier threat to impose “secondary sanctions” against those who violate the US’ primary ones, which was analyzed here. This followed Trump’s latest meeting with Zelensky, who might have negatively influenced over his hitherto largely positive perceptions of Putin, and comes after reports that the US has finalized its peace plan.

Five significant disagreements that have emerged throughout the course of negotiations account for Trump’s volte-face toward Putin.

• The first was referenced by Trump in his post where he condemned Russia’s bombing of civilian areas. Putin argued earlier in April that Russia is targeting Ukrainian troops there, but the optics of continued Russian strikes against civilian areas amidst peace talks with the US evidently left a very negative impression on Trump, who now doubts Putin’s commitment to peace.
• The second concerns European peacekeepers in Ukraine, which the US’ reportedly finalized peace plan suggests despite Russia opposing it. Although Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth already declared that the US won’t extend Article 5 mutual defense guarantees to NATO countries’ troops in Ukraine, Russia fears that the US could be manipulated by the Europeans into mission creep if the latter deploy there. Putin therefore prefers for there to be no ambiguity about this and for Trump to scrub it from his plan.
• Third, it’s unclear whether Ukraine will be obligated to at least partially demilitarize like Kiev provisionally agreed to do during spring 2022’s ultimately failed peace talks, which is one of Russia’s explicitly declared goals in the conflict. Trump is reluctant to support this since he seems to believe that it could embolden Putin to recommence hostilities in the future, especially in the absence of European peacekeepers, but this demand isn’t something that Putin could easily walk away from.
• The fourth disagreement is over the US’ refusal to accede to Russia’s demand for coercing Ukraine into withdrawing from the disputed territories that are still under Kiev’s control. The New York Times cited a source who described this as “unreasonable and unachievable”, but it’s imperative for Russia after the Kremlin recognized the entirety of these regions as Russian following September 2022’s referenda. Just like with demilitarization, Putin also can’t easily walk away from this either, hence the disagreement.
• And finally, the US’ reportedly finalized peace plan also requests that Russia hand over the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and Kakhovka Dam to the US, which is as unacceptable for Putin as the preceding points of accepting European peacekeepers, dropping demilitarization, and curbing his territorial claims. All five disagreements, including the first-mentioned one about Russia’s continued strikes against military targets in civilian areas, collectively contributed to this impasse right before the diplomatic finish line.

If Putin and Trump can’t resolve these issues, after which Trump would then also have to get Zelensky to agree to their new deal, then the peace process will probably go kaput. 

Putin and Trump are incentivized to resolve their disputes due to how mutually beneficial the nascent Russian–US “New Détente” is while Zelensky would struggle to continue fighting if the US once again cuts off military aid as punishment for rejecting whatever those two agree to. Be that as it may, it’ll still be very difficult to break this deadlock.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Megyn Kelly battling VAIDS, regrets the jab; Lil Nas X “losing control” of his face; Lola Young “gagging and throw…

Megyn Kelly Still Battling VAIDS Caused by Covid Shot: ‘I Really, Really Regret Having Gotten the Vaccine’

April 17, 2025

Megyn Kelly [52] is speaking out about her battle with an autoimmune disorder, Vaccine-Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (VAIDS), which was caused by a Covid mRNA injection. Speaking to The Daily Mail, Kelly said she’s still suffering from major complications associated with the disorder, often referred to as “vaccine-induced AIDS.” As Slay News has previously reported, experts have been raising the alarm about the phenomenon for some time, warning that Covid mRNA shots have caused a global surge in cases of AIDS-like autoimmunity disorders. However, reports from sufferers such as Kelly continue to debunk claims from the corporate media that previously dismissed reports of VAIDS as “conspiracy theories.” Meanwhile, sleazy so-called “fact-checkers” are scrambling to convince the public that stories like Kelly’s are just “disinformation.” “I just had my annual physical, and it’s still testing positive for autoimmune,” Kelly told the Daily Mail. “I really, really regret having gotten the vaccine.” Kelly said was felt pressured to get “vaccinated” because she lives in New York City. In the deep blue city, many places required proof of “vaccination.” The former Fox News star said she was also advised to take the Covid shots by her doctors. However, Kelly said her doctors never warned her that the mRNA injections could destroy her immune system.

“You could get the fake [Covid vaccination] cards, but it was hard,” she recalled. “I didn’t know how to do it…So, I trusted my doctors and I did it.” Kelly said she tested positive for an autoimmune disorder one month after receiving her third dose of Pfizer’s mRNA “vaccine.” She said her rheumatologist confirmed the booster could be the cause. “I said [to the rheumatologist], ‘could it be that I had the third shot – and then within a month of it, got the Omicron version…And she said, ‘yes,’” Kelly told The Mail. “[W]e were lied to,” Kelly said, acknowledging others have had “worse” outcomes. “It was not an informed assumption of the risk,” she added. “There’s no question people have been hurt and even killed…I, for one, have learned a ton, but remain pissed off about how the whole thing was handled.” Last year, Kelly revealed that she had been “targeted” by the pharmaceutical industry after she went public about the side effects she suffered after receiving the Covid mRNA injection from Moderna. Kelly first revealed in September 2023 that she had been diagnosed with VAIDS.

Link

Upgrade to paid

90 Day Fiance’s Jasmine Pineda Has Emergency Surgery 1 Month After Giving Birth to Baby No. 3

April 18, 2025

90 Day Fiancé star Jasmine Pineda underwent emergency surgery one month after welcoming baby No. 3. “I had an emergency surgery [on] one of my [teeth,]” Pineda, 38, wrote via her Instagram Story on Friday, April 18. “My gums got so messed up during pregnancy, it caused some issues.” Pineda included a photo of her face which was bruised on one side. In a subsequent slide, she opened up more about her condition. “I called [partner] Matt [ Branistareanu ] basically yelling out pain. He came home — found me an endodontist and set up an appointment,” she wrote. “He stayed home taking care of [daughter Matilda] while I went to have surgery.”

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Gerry Turner Shares Hope After Terminal Diagnosis—”It’s A Privilege To Live Like You’re Dying”

April 16, 2025

A little more than a year after the premiere of The Golden Bachelor, the show’s star received a devastating diagnosis. Gerry Turner learned she had Waldenström’s macroglobulinemia, a slow-growing bone marrow cancer. Sadly, there is no cure, and his diagnosis was terminal. Gerry told Joe Amabile and Serena Pitt on the Bachelor Happy Hour he hasn’t changed much since his diagnosis. For now, he feels good, continues monitoring his health closely, and has regular bloodwork every six months. “I feel optimistic because the doctor has said, ‘Well, when you turn 75, we’re going to have to go three-month increments.’ So it’s telling me that at least he expects me to live another couple of years to get to that. But the bottom line is I feel really good.” Gerry Turner, 72, and Theresa Nist, 70, the winner of the Golden Bachelor stayed married for 100 days, but the pair ended their relationship in divorce. Since then, he’s found a new love.

Link

Brian Austin Green recovering after undergoing emergency surgery

April 16, 2025

Brian Austin Green is currently in recovery after suffering a perforated appendix. The 51-year-old actor opened up about his health condition in a video shared on Instagram on Monday. He recalled his early symptoms, noting that he “started feeling some pain” in his stomach last week. “I ended up going to the emergency room, and I had a perforated appendix,” he said. “Not quite burst but just before.”

Researcher's Note - Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12 [2023]

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Boosie Badass Diagnosed w/ Incurable Heart Ailment!

April 20, 2025

Rapper Boosie Badazz (formerly known as Lil Boosie) is opening up about another major health challenge—and this time, it’s a condition that’s got fans seriously worried. In a recent update, Boosie [42] shared that he was rushed to the hospital after experiencing alarming symptoms. Doctors diagnosed him with left atrial enlargement (LAE)—a condition where the left atrium of the heart becomes abnormally enlarged. And while that might sound like just another medical term, it’s actually pretty serious. And here’s the kicker: There’s no actual cure. It’s all about managing the underlying causes to prevent it from getting worse. For Boosie, this diagnosis is especially alarming because he’s already dealing with severe diabetes and high blood pressure—two major conditions that can put a ton of stress on the heart.

Researcher's Note - Lil Boosie hosts COVID vaccination [sic] event at Southern University

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Lil Nas X rushed to hospital after ‘losing control’ of his face

April 15, 2025

Lil Nas X has revealed he has been taken to hospital after suffering partial facial paralysis due to a mystery illness. The rapper, 26, is known for his huge 2018 hit, “Old Town Road”, which became the longest-running song to sit at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 list since the chart’s 1958 inception. Lil Nas – real name Montero Lamar Hill – shared a video from his hospital bed, wearing a Von Dutch baseball cap and patient gown. He told his 10.4 million Instagram followers: “This is me doing a full smile right now by the way. “It’s like, what the f***? Bro, I can’t even laugh right now, bro. What the f***? Ah! Oh my God!” he added in confusion.

Researcher's Note - Lil Nas X Hilariously Trolls Rabbi Who Says COVID Vaccine [sic] Makes You Gay. He tweeted a photo of himself before and after the vaccine, and, in the second picture, the musician sports a limp wrist

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Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has medical emergency while recovering from stroke: report

April 18, 2025

Gregg Popovich reportedly experienced a medical emergency Tuesday night while at a San Antonio [TX] steakhouse. The San Antonio Spurs coach had a “mild stroke” in November and hasn’t coached since. TMZ reports that Popovich left the restaurant in an ambulance, and officials say they received a call that an elderly person “fainted.” Popovich reportedly did not suffer any life-threatening injuries or illnesses, and he was alert by the time he entered the ambulance. The 76-year-old missed six games earlier this season before the team announced he had a stroke. He coached the team’s first five games of the season. The team said he was expected to make a full recovery.

Researcher's Note - NBA requiring Covid-19 vaccinations [sic] for referees and others who work with players

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Helene Duhamel facing another cancer fight

April 18, 2025

RAPID CITY, S.D. – Helene Duhamel [62] has been in the public eye here in the Black Hills for decades. First as a news anchor, then as a state legislator and as the public information officer for the Pennington County Sheriff’s Office. Now, she’s speaking out for another familiar reason. Helene Duhamel had a very public fight with cancer after she was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Disease back in 1992 while working as an anchor at KOTA Territory News. Now, more than 30 years later, she’s facing that fight yet again. Duhamel says, “I have been diagnosed with non-Small cell squamous cell lung cancer. And doctors are convinced it’s from radiation I had to fight cancer 32 years ago.” This time, she says the first indication that something was wrong started with a cough that just wouldn’t go away. She says it plagued her through this year’s legislative session, where she served as a State Senator in District 32.

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Mullin shares update on son from Mayo Clinic amid family health challenges

April 18, 2025

Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., shared a health update regarding his son, Andrew, who has been at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., as doctors try to determine the cause of a possible mystery illness. Mullin, whose eyes were bruised — presumably from surgery — announced on Friday that Andrew was set to undergo two procedures. On Tuesday, the senator shared that several members of his family, including himself, were facing health issues. The senator underwent eye surgery on April 11 and his wife, Christie, had “major knee reconstructive surgery” on April 8, and his mother had a stroke on the same day as his procedure. He said on April 17 that his wife and mother were doing better, as was he.

Mullin’s son, Andrew, however, was facing a different health challenge — one that the senator said in a video on Tuesday that he had been dealing with since January. “[I] had a severe side pain and had to go to the E.R. and get checked out,” Andrew said. The University of Oklahoma wrestler explained that he had fluid in his lungs and some “growth spots” that kept getting worse. Since the video on Tuesday, Mullin has shared updates on his social media almost daily, if not more often. The day after sharing the health statuses of himself, his wife, his mother and his son, Mullin shared that the Mayo Clinic had ruled out cancer as a possible reason for the growth spots in Andrew’s lungs. “Senator Mullin is at the Mayo Clinic this week supporting his son, Andrew, as he undergoes rigorous testing.”

Researcher’s note - University of Oklahoma limiting COVID-19 vaccination [sic] requirements, changing social distancing policy, but encourages getting vaccinated [sic]

No age reported.

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Republican suddenly hospitalized for ‘health scare’ hours after announcing re-election bid

April 16, 2025

An outspoken Republican congressional candidate was hospitalized just hours after announcing her campaign. Mayra Flores, 39, a former congresswoman from Texas, announced her candidacy for the 2026 election on Tuesday. Then just hours later her team shared a more dire message. ‘Former and future Congresswoman Mayra Flores, a devoted conservative fighting corruption in Texas ‘s 28th District, has been hospitalized,’ a post on her X signed ‘Team Mayra,’ shockingly stated. ‘During this challenging time, we humbly ask for your prayers and support. We pray that Mayra will return stronger than ever, ready to continue her unwavering commitment to serving our country.’

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Alabama Civil Appeals judge, former lawmaker in intensive care after massive heart attack

April 16, 2025

Matt Fridy [49], a former lawmaker from Shelby County who is now a judge on the Alabama Court of Civil Appeals, suffered a heart attack and was in intensive care Wednesday afternoon, state Rep. Jim Hill said. Hill, chairman of the Alabama House Judiciary Committee, said a prayer for Fridy to open Wednesday’s committee meeting. “When you have a massive heart attack and you’re in intensive care, that trumps every single thing we’re doing in here this afternoon,” Hill said.

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UNITED KINGDOM

British Singer Interrupts Coachella Performance to Vomit

April 19, 2025

Coachella has been nothing short of “Messy” this year, and Lola Young ‘s performance was no exception. While hitting the stage at the California music festival, the British singer unexpectedly fell ill, and ended up “gagging and throwing up” during her entire performance. In a viral new TikTok video , the “Wish You Were Dead” songstress shared snippets of her struggling through the chaotic performance while admitting to fans that she wasn’t feeling well during her set, a likely side effect of the California heat. “Not me doing my first Coachella & gagging & throwing up all the way through the set,” the 24-year-old songstress wrote across the now-viral clip, while adding in her caption, “I was nervous guys and it was 40 bloody degrees.” (40 degrees Celsius is equivalent to 104 degrees Fahrenheit). In the clip, Young could be seen visibly gagging and even asking the stage crew for a bucket at one point. But the “Messy” singer didn’t let it ruin the performance, as she still did her best to get through the set—and could be seen “twerking her way through” the illness in the video. “The heat is no joke but she handled it like a queen,” one of Young’s fans applauded in the TikTok comments.

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Love Island star Sam Taylor’s girlfriend, 22, rushed to hospital after suffering cardiac arrest

April 18, 2025

Social media influencer Em Leah, 22, was admitted to hospital after her “heart stopped” during an unexpected health scare. The influencer, who has amassed 155,000 followers on Instagram, was hospitalised just days after the pair went public with their new relationship. The Love Island star is now reportedly supporting his girlfriend as she recovers following the terrifying ordeal. “Cardiac arrest and heart stopping on me… Was not on todays to do list,” she wrote. “I’m okay and in the best place, thank you for all the messages,” she added.

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Welsh star of The Voice has life-saving heart operation

April 17, 2025

A Welsh singer-songwriter has undergone life-saving open heart surgery. Gary Ryland, known as Ragsy, is now recovering after the op in Cardiff. He has described the cardiology team who operated on him as “magical superheroes” and paid tribute to the NHS staff who “saved his life“. Ragsy was diagnosed with hereditary heart disease and admitted to the University Hospital of Wales (UHW) on March 28 for a double heart bypass. The rocker from Aberdare, who appeared on talent show The Voice and was mentored by Sir Tom Jones, admitted he was petrified in the moments before being wheeled into theatre. But the 46-year-old said the kindness, compassion and calmness of the hospital staff – from the surgeons to the porters – helped him through the ordeal. Ragsy, whose late father suffered his first heart attack at the age of 21, said he first noticed something was wrong with his own health when he began getting out of breath more easily than usual. “I’m a keen cyclist and I used to go out riding at least four or five days a week to get my heart and lungs pumping,” he recalled. “Being a former chef, I also look after myself with good, nutritious food. But I noticed things changing around December 2022. I work as a song-writing coach in schools and sixth form colleges, and I remember walking across one of the school’s car parks into the reception area, and feeling pains across my chest and arms. It felt like I’d run a race and I was waiting for my body to gather itself. I didn’t know what was happening to me.”

Link

Amy Childs’ mum Julie, 59, rushed to hospital for emergency surgery after suffering heart attack

April 15, 2025

Worried Amy Childs has revealed that her mum Julie was rushed to hospital for emergency surgery after suffering a heart attack. The Towie star, 34, took to Instagram on Tuesday and said her mother, 59, collapsed from the health scare leaving her terrified. Amy revealed Julie is now ‘doing OK’ but needs rest and is currently in hospital waiting for a stent to be fitted.

Link

Dermot O’Leary says he ignored ‘massively painful’ health issue because ‘I’m a man’

April 15, 2025

Dermot O’Leary has detailed the “massively painful” health condition he’s been experiencing. On an episode of This Morning, the presenter, 51, revealed he started to experience pain in his jaw “out of nowhere” in recent weeks but was initially reluctant to seek medical help. O’Leary was joined on the programme by his physiotherapist Krina Panchal, who treated him for temporomandibular joint (TMJ) disorder after the presenter was sent to her by a doctor. Speaking to his co-host Alison Hammond, O’Leary said: “I woke up last half term in October, out of nowhere and every time I opened my mouth to eat something, I got a massive pain around here,” indicating his jaw. The TMJ is the joint between your jawbone and your temporal bone. Disorders can cause jaw, neck, and shoulder pain as well as vision problems, dizziness and headaches. If the condition is left untreated for a prolonged period of time, it can lead to early onset arthritis around the jaw socket as well as dislocation of the jaw in extreme cases. The condition can be treated through massage from a physiotherapist like Panchal, or through Botox injections into the masseter muscle. Panchal detailed that O’Leary’s condition is “more muscular” than joint related. O’Leary’s news comes after former Radio 2 presenter Zoe Ball revealed she had been suffering from TMJ in her final weeks of her breakfast show last year.

Researcher's Note - Dermot O’Leary encourages a hesitant Alison Hammond to take the Covid-19 vaccine [sic]: ‘It’s ’cause we love you’

TV presenter Dermot O'Leary involved in heated debate with anti-vaxxer guest on This Morning

Link

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Fwd: Milwaukee Judge Hannah Dugan was arrested by FBI on charges of obstruction after she allegedly “intentionally misd…

Judge Hannah Dugan was arrested by FBI on charges of obstruction after she allegedly “intentionally misdirected federal agents away” from Eduardo Flores Ruiz, an undocumented immigrant. If

this happened as reported, yes, she broke the law & obstructed & is in legal jeopardy! Moreover, did Karoline Leavitt escalate things by Refusing to Rule Out Arrest of Supreme (SCOTUS) Court Judges?

Did the FBI over-reach in arresting Dugan? Is there a difference between an administrative versus arrest warrant? What did the ICE and/or FBI have? If she did impede then that was obstruction and then she had to be arrested yet did she? Did she have immunity in her courtroom and they had no say?

Back to arrest of SCOTUS justices? Did Ms. Leavitt mis-speak? Can a SCOTUS justice be arrested?

What is your opinion? Do you think Ms. Leavitt’s response for the White House signals an openness by Trump administration to arrest SCOTUS judges? Please comment. Or is this hype and miscommunication?

The Trump administration is open to arresting Supreme Court judges, as White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told it on Monday morning.

“You guys arrested a Milwaukee County Circuit judge for allegedly helping illegal immigrants get away,” Fox News’s Peter Doocy asked Leavitt. “As you guys look at other judges, would you ever arrest somebody higher up on the judicial food chain, like a federal judge or even a Supreme Court justice?”

“That’s a hypothetical question, again I defer you to the Department of Justice for individuals that they are looking at or individual cases. But let’s be clear about what this judge did: She obstructed federal law enforcement who were looking for an illegal alien in her courthouse. She showed that illegal alien the door to evade law enforcement officials. That is a clear-cut case of obstruction,” Leavitt replied.

“And so anyone who is breaking the law or obstructing federal law enforcement officials from doing their jobs is putting theirselves at risk of being prosecuted, absolutely.”

Do you agree with this statement below?

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

‘The Trump administration is showing open and direct hostility toward the judicial branch, identifying any judge who dares to defy them as an “activist judge.” The arrest of Judge Dugan, the numerous court orders ignored by the administration, the eight immigration judges who have now been fired or put on leave, and now, Leavitt’s alarming answer are all clear indications that Trump has no plans to reel back his abuse of executive power.’

___

You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

END

BREAKING! POTUS Trump goes for the takedown, calling for jailing of the Person(s) Who Operated Joe Biden’s Autopen before his Presidency ended! President Trump on Sunday called for the person or

persons to be jailed, so is there fire to this smoke? Does POTUS Trump know something we do not? Were Biden’s Presidential pardons done without Biden knowing? Not approved by Biden?

BOOM!

‘President Trump on Sunday called for the person or persons who operated Joe Biden’s autopen to be jailed.

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

“Hopefully ACTBLUE, the Democrats ILLEGAL SCAM used to raise money, including from not allowed “foreign contributions,” is being looked at by authorities. The Dems only know how to win by CHEATING, something which they do better than any group or party in history. But now, with their terrible policies and candidates, and with people like Crooked Adam Schiff, who demanded a full Pardon from Sleepy Joe, leading the way, it is almost impossible to reach their money goals. The USA is wise to these scoundrels and crooks. Also, why did the Auto Pen give Schiff a Pardon? Biden knew nothing about it. Who operated the Auto Pen? That is the biggest question being asked in D.C. They almost destroyed our Country. They should all be in jail!!!” Trump said on Truth Social.’

SLAY NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

EVOL NEWS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES/

INDIA PAKISTAN

Pakistan Shoots Down Indian Spy Drone Over Kashmir As Forces On High Ale

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 12:20 PM

Pakistan’s military says it shot down an Indian spy drone in the Kashmir region, soon after the country’s defense chief warned that intelligence shows an Indian army incursion is ‘imminent’.

The unmanned drone reportedly breached the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir, Pakistani state-run media said, and it was subsequently shot down amid the air space incursion. Pakistani defense officials described to The Associated Press that the drone flew hundreds of feet into Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

Defense Minister Khawaja Asif the day prior confirmed the nation’s military is currently on high alert and he had “reinforced our forces” – after multiple days of sporadic exchanges of gunfire along unspecified border posts.

“In that situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken,” Asif told Reuters, also ominously describing that Islamabad would only consider using its nuclear arsenal in response to “a direct threat to our existence.” 

There’s as yet been no noticeable incursion, and it remains unclear what evidence for this forecast Pakistan’s military and intelligence services might have.

Last Tuesday’s deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, which saw 26 Indian tourists get executed after the gunmen sought to identify Hindus among the group, resulted in the Indian government promptly accusing Pakistan of harboring the Islamist terrorists which committed the atrocity, which Islamabad angrily rejected.

The nuclear-armed neighbors have already fought two historic wars over the Kashmir region, and fears are rising that another one may soon be on the horizon – also after both sides have sent military reinforcements to the respective regions they administer. Amid a massive manhunt, India identified two detained suspected militants as Pakistani.

The New York Times described Saturday that “Pakistani solders fired at an Indian position first and India responded in kind, according to local news reports, which said that “the exchange was brief and that there were no casualties.” Precise locations of these live fire incidents have not been disclosed.

Missile and nuclear saber-rattling has meanwhile ensued:

India’s navy test-fired missiles on Sunday, showcasing its ability to carry out “long-range, precision offensive” strikes, as tensions with Pakistan rise after last week’s terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians.

“Indian Navy ships undertook successful multiple anti-ship firings to re-validate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems, and crew for long-range precision offensive strike,” the navy posted on X, as the prime minister, Narendra Modi, promised a “harsh response” to the attack at a tourist site, the deadliest against civilians in Kashmir in 25 years.

As for the other side, a Pakistani minister, Hanif Abbasi (though he’s not in defense or security) days ago warned that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal of more than 130 missiles was “not kept as models” and was aimed “only for India … these ballistic missiles, all of them are targeted at you” – The Guardian noted.

The United Nations has urged restraint, and Pakistan has called for an independent investigation into the Kashmir terror attack, which it says it had nothing to do with. It has also called on Russia and China to mediate and assist with a potential investigation.

If gunfire continues to be exchanged between the two militaries, also amid reports that Pakistani visa holders are being promptly booted from the country amid the diplomatic crisis – clashes could accelerate toward open war. 

India’s Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah has meanwhile said there must be a “decisive fight against terrorism and its origin.” Indian officials have continued to heap accusations that ultimately Islamabad either supports these groups or at least turns a blind eye.

More observations via Rabobank…

Pakistan just warned of imminent India military action against it in response to a recent terror attack in Kashmir, to which China stated: “As Pakistan’s ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” with rumours it and Turkey are sending Pakistan weapons. 

India will surely be looking for mirroring statements and actions from those who want more trade with it. The UK and the EU aren’t going to provide them; BRICS is a joke given what C just said about I, via P; and that only leaves the US.

CANADA

Canadian Election: CBC Calls Election For Carney As Liberals Remain In Powe

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 10:25 PM

Update (2225ET): To the surprise of nobody (aside from a few excited folks about three hours ago), Canada’s liberal party has won Monday’s national elections – with voters electing Mark Carney to a full term as the next Prime Minister according to national broadcaster CBC/Radio Canada.

According to CTV, Carney’s liberals have won a minority (vs. majority).

As of 10:51 p.m EDT, the Liberals had won or were leading in 161 out of 343 ridings. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are set to remain in opposition, with 137 ridings so far. Parties need 172 seats to form a majority.

Poilievre is the fourth consecutive Conservative leader to lose to the Liberals, who have remained in power since 2015.

Canada’s former top banker, Carney replaced an increasingly unpopular Justin Trudeau as prime minister in March. Highlighting his experience steering major economies through economic crises, Carney succeeded in convincing Canadians that he was the best person to tackle affordability issues and take on Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats.

Carney’s victory cements the Liberal Party’s decade in power, which began with Trudeau winning a surprise majority over the Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in October 2015.

The full results will be available later this evening or early Tuesday.

With Canada’s Atlantic polls now having closed in what will be a deeply consequential election, odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have begun spiking after conservative turnout was reportedly “larger than expected,” according to betting market Kalshi.

Update (2127ET): After some momentary excitement based on a reported ‘larger than expected’ turnout at Canadian polls, betting market odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have fallen back to the low 20% range. 

.com/zerohedge/status/1915887086919418236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1915887086919418236%7Ctwgr%5E8d4

Stay tuned for more…

Earlier, Polymarket odds were as high as 48% for Poilievre – dropping to a 30% chance as of this writing – but nevertheless in sharp contrast to the 20% odds he’s been hovering around all week.

Only to reverse lower (as seen on this 6h chart)…

You can track the odds in realtime below:

We’re guessing Carney takes it, but there was still money to be made for those who partake…

*  *   *

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO/USA: 1.1382 DOWN 0.0026 PTS OR 26 BASIS POINTS

USA/ YEN 142.59 UP 0.413 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3387 DOWN .0047 OR 47 BASIS PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3850 UP 0.0018 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 1.76 PTS OR 0.05%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 36.15 PTS OR 0.16%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.02%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:    ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 36.15 PTS OR 0.16%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.76 PTS OR 0.05%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.02%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 3313,35

silver:$33.29

USA dollar index early TUESDAY  morning: 99.09 UP .30 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.045 % UP 9 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.325% UP 0 FULL POINTS AND 0/100  BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.162 UP 0 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.609 UP 0 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.512 UP 6 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  MID DAY TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1400 DOWN .0007 OR 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 142.31 UP 0.152 OR YEN IS DOWN 15 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5175 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0017 OR 17 BASIS pts  to 1.3848

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The USA/Yuan UP TO 7.2732,  CNY ON SHORE ..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2674:

TURKISH LIRA:  38.45 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.325

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from MONDAY at  4.193% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.673 DOWN 5 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.674 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3302.00

SILVER AT 11;00: 33.28

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 46.12 PTS OR 0.55%

GERMAN DAX: UP 154.16 PTS OR .63%

FRANCE: DOWN 17.89 PTS OR UP .24%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 89.20 PTS OR 0.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 409.22 PTS OR 1.09 %

WTI Oil price  60.99 11 EST/

Brent Oil:  64.43 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  82.07 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  57/ 100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4905 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5175 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.173 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.772 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1385 DOWN 0.0022 OR 22 BASIS POINTS//

British Pound: 1.3404 DOWN .0031 OR 31 basis pts/

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.4810 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.325

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142.26 UP 0.083 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3845 UP 0.0013 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 60.29

Brent OIL:  64.11

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 4.167

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.643%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT  3.653%

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.149 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.759 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 99.00 UP 22 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.45 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  82.74 DOWN 0 AND  9/100 roubles

GOLD  $3323.65 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 32.99 (3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 300.03 OR 0.75%

NASDAQ 100 UP 117.66 PTS OR 0.61%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.41 DOWN 0.74 PTS OR 2.94%

GLD: $ 306.06 DOWN 3.01 PTS OR 1.19%

SLV/ $28.83 DOWN 0.36 PTS OR OR 0.97%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 83.03 OR 0.33%

end

TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS

Stocks & Bonds Rally As ‘Soft’ Data Slumps; Trump’s First 100 Days Worst For S&P Since Nixon

MORNING BIG NEWS

AFTERNOON’S BIG NEWS

Trump Order Strips Funding From Sanctuary Cities Engaged In ‘Insurrectio

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 02:40 PM

Authored by Bethany Blankley via The Center Square,

President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Monday to enhance national security and enforce federal immigration and criminal law in so-called sanctuary jurisdictions and take a range of actions against those obstructing enforcement, including eliminating their federal funding.

Trump’s “Protecting American Communities from Criminal Aliens” executive order directs the departments of Justice and Homeland Security to publish a list of state and local jurisdictions that obstruct federal immigration enforcement and take action against them.

“Federal supremacy with respect to immigration, national security, and foreign policy is axiomatic,” the order states, citing Article II and Article IV, Section 4, of the U.S. Constitution, vesting the federal government with the power to protect national security and “protect each of [the States] against Invasion.”

The invasion argument was first made by 55 Texas counties that declared an invasion citing Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, The Center Square exclusively reported.

“The prior administration allowed unchecked millions of aliens to illegally enter the United States,” the order states, creating a public safety and national security crisis, exacerbated by transnational criminal organizations, terrorists and others intent on harming Americans.

Trump’s latest executive order, as many of his previous ones, is likely to be challenged in court.

Citing an invasion at the southern border, which Trump officially declared on his first day in office, his administration is now responding to some state and local officials who “violate, obstruct, and defy” federal immigration enforcement, the order states.

Local jurisdictions who obstruct federal deportation efforts are engaging in “a lawless insurrection against the supremacy of Federal law and the Federal Government’s obligation to defend the territorial sovereignty of the United States,” it states.

In addition to creating “intolerable national security risks,” the order states sanctuary jurisdictions’ “nullification efforts often violate Federal criminal laws, including those prohibiting obstruction of justice, … unlawfully harboring or hiring illegal aliens …, conspiracy against the United States …, and conspiracy to impede Federal law enforcement.”

The order also notes that “assisting aliens in violating Federal immigration law could also violate the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act,” an argument made by America First Legal, The Center Square reported. In January, AFL launched a resource to help Americans fight sanctuary policies and sent letters to more than 250 elected officials demanding that they comply with federal law or expect to be sued.

“Concealing, harboring, or shielding aliens could also trigger liability under the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) statute,” AFL said.

“Civil RICO remedies are available to ‘[a]ny person injured in his business or property by reason of a violation’ and shall recover threefold the damages he sustains and the cost of the suit, including a reasonable attorney’s fee.’”

Trump’s order also states that those who assist illegal foreign nationals might be violating federal laws that prohibit discrimination against Americans and might be violating Americans’ civil rights.

In order for the federal government “to restore the enforcement of United States law,” Trump directed the attorney general and Secretary of Homeland Security to publish a list of states and local jurisdictions that obstruct the federal immigration enforcement. Each jurisdiction is to be notified of its alleged violation of federal immigration and criminal law.

Those that remain in defiance will lose all federal funding, the order says. The AG and DHS secretary are directed to work with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to identify, suspend and terminate all federal funds allocated to sanctuary jurisdictions, including grants and contracts. They are also directed to “pursue all necessary legal remedies and enforcement measures to end these violations and bring such jurisdictions into compliance” with U.S. laws.

The order also prevents all federal benefits from being spent on illegal foreign nationals living in sanctuary jurisdictions, including through private entities. It requires federal agencies to create a mechanism “to ensure appropriate eligibility verification is conducted for individuals receiving federal public benefits” under Title 8 of federal immigration law.

It also creates provisions for the AG, DHS secretary and agency heads to “identify and take appropriate action to stop the enforcement of state and local laws, regulations, policies, and practices favoring aliens over any groups of American citizens that are unlawful, preempted by federal law, or otherwise unenforceable.”

This includes state laws that provide in-state higher education tuition “to aliens but not to out-of-State American citizens that may violate” federal law or “that favor aliens in criminal charges or sentencing.”

The order was issued after the Trump administration already warned sanctuary jurisdictions like Massachusetts, whose officials remained steadfast in their policies to protect illegal foreign nationals. They continued to do so after federal authorities arrested alleged terrorists tied to the murder of U.S. troops and hundreds of criminal illegal foreign nationals were charged or convicted of committing violent crimes against Massachusetts residents, The Center Square reported.

USA DATA

Tariff-Frontrunning Sends US Trade Deficit To New Record High In M

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 08:56 AM

The US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in March to a record as companies continued importing goods to get ahead of tariffs.

The shortfall in goods trade grew 9.6% from a month earlier to $162 billion, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday.

Imports rose 5% to $342.7 billion, led by consumer goods, while exports increased 1.2% as firms scrambled to get ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs…

Imports of consumer goods surged 27.5%, while inbound shipments of motor vehicles and capital goods also increased.

Because this is the ‘advance’ data release, there is no data for individual nation trade balances or how gold imports have shifted. Remember, gold imports had been soaring through February…

…and blowing up economists’ models of GDP growth.

What we do know is that gold inventories at COMEX have been falling in March, suggesting a slowdown in imports… which will juice GDP forecasts (further confounding all the PhDs)

Finally, we note that Tuesday’s Commerce Department report also showed stockpiles at wholesalers increased 0.5%. Retail inventories fell 0.1% last month, reflecting a decline at car dealers.

end

US Home Prices Hit A New Record High In February… Except In

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 09:14 AM

US home prices hit a new record high in February, according to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, rising 0.4% MoM (as expected). However, the pace of price rises did slow modestly (after accelerating for the past three months) to +4.50% YoY…

But as the average national home price rose to yet another record high, prices in Tampa continued to fall…

But Las Vegas and San Diego are also seeing prices start to decelerate rapidly…

Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, the next couple of months do not bode well…

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going continue to lag for the next couple of months before re-accelerating once again…

So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices…Well played Fed!!

END

Conference Board Consumer Expectations Plunge To 14 Year Lows; Inflation Expectations

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 10:14 AM

Another day, another sentiment measure disappoints…

US consumer confidence fell in April to an almost five-year low on growing pessimism about prospects for the economy and labor market due to tariffs. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased nearly 8 points to 86, the weakest since May 2020. This was the fifth straight monthly decline, the longest such stretch since 2008. 

Worse still, consumer expectations for the next six months plunged to the lowest level since 2011, while a gauge of present conditions also fell.

“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 

“The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. 

Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations.

However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

Labor market conditions weakened, extending their very recent downtrend…

High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011). 

Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April – the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation. 

Notably, the NYFed’s measure of inflation expectations (and the market’s measure of inflation expectations) are NOT screaming higher like UMICH and CONF BOARD surveys…

Finally, we note that April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year.

Guichard added that write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy revealed that tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high.

Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy. 

Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy: while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in the prices of gas and some food items.

The decline in confidence was shared across all political affiliations.

END

Deep State JOLTED: Government Job Openings Plummet To 5 Year Low As Total Hires, Quits Jump

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 10:59 AM

One month after the BLS reported that in February the labor market reverted to its deteriorating trendline, when the US had 7.568 million job openings (missing estimates of 7.655 million), a drop from the 7.762 million in January (revised from 7.740 million), and down 877,000 from the prior year, moments ago the latest JOLTS report showed that in March the labor market continued to deteriorate, and the number of job openings declined again, this time by 288K, from a downward revised 7.480MM to 7.192MM, the lowest since September 2024.

According to the BLS, the drop in job openings was across most sectors, with an emphasis of construction, transportation, private education and real estate. The lone increase was reported in finance and insurance.

However, the biggest surprise was precisely where we noted last month that something doesn’t make sense. 

Recall last month we said that “as always, there is a reason to doubt this particular set of numbers – just as there was reason to doubt every set of numbers from Biden – because according to the February JOLTS report, the number of Federal Government job openings was essentially flat both sequentially and YoY.”

Well, not anymore, and in March, the number of government job openings plunged by 36K, from 134K to just 98K, the first sub-100K print since the covid crash, some five years ago!

In  the context of the broader jobs report, in February the number of job openings was 109 more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.083 million), down from 428K the previous month, and the lowest differentials since the covid crash.

Still, as noted previously, until this number turns negative, the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.

Said otherwise, in January the number of job openings to unemployed rose modestly to 1.1, the highest since last May if on the low end of the pre-covid range in 2018-2019.

While the job openings data was a miss and a drop, what softened the blow is that for the the number of hires unexpectedly rose to 5.411 million from 5.370 million, the highest since last October, and hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere – rose again, and in March hit 3.332 million, up from 3.250 million and the highest since July 2024.

How to make sense of this continued deterioration in the labor market, and especially in the government sector?

Well, as we explained in “Here’s What Trump Needs To Do For Powell To Quickly Cut Rates” to get the Fed to cut rates,
“all Trump has to do is simply maintain the current level of sharp layoffs – i.e., fully unleash Musk’s DOGE – in the parasitic government sector which will more than offset gains everywhere and lead to a spike in total unemployment, and Powell will have no choice but to finally capitulate.”

And judging by the sudden plunge in government job openings, don’t be surprised if Friday’s jobs report shows a huge drop in the number of actual government workers which pushes the broader unemployment rate higher and forces Powell out of his stupor.

END

This is telling: just look at what the tariffs are doing in the USA:

UPS To Slash 20,000 Jobs On Amazon Pullback & Looming Freight Slowdown

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 02:20 PM

United Parcel Service plans to cut tens of thousands of jobs this year and close dozens of leased and owned facilities by the end of June, describing the move as a “network reconfiguration and efficiency effort.” The reductions follow a pullback in partnership between the carrier and e-commerce giant Amazon for low-margin deliveries, a shift that began earlier this year, and come amid a broader slowdown in package volumes from China to the U.S. because of President Trump’s tariff wall. 

“In connection with our anticipation of lower volumes from our largest customer [Amazon], we began our Network Reconfiguration, which is an expansion of Network of the Future and will lead to consolidations of our facilities and workforce as well as an end-to-end process redesign,” UPS stated in a press release. 

In January, UPS shares posted their largest single-day drop after news broke that the carrier planned to improve profitability by cutting the number of low-margin parcels it delivers for Amazon. At the time, UPS forecasted that its shipping volume with Amazon would be halved by the second quarter of 2026. 

UPS on Tuesday provided more color on the reductions: “We launched our Efficiency Reimagined initiatives to undertake the end-to-end process redesign effort which will align our organizational processes to the network reconfiguration. We expect to reduce our operational workforce by approximately 20,000 positions during 2025 and close 73 leased and owned buildings by the end of June 2025.” 

The latest Bloomberg data shows UPS has around 490,000 workers, suggesting the planned reduction only accounts for about 4% of the entire workforce. The move comes after 12,000 management jobs were cut earlier this year. 

President Trump’s tariff wall around the U.S. market on China — at 145% — will certainly reduce shipment flows by the carrier in the weeks and months ahead – unless a trade deal is resolved. 

The latest data from the Port of Los Angeles — the primary gateway for U.S. trade with Asia — shows a sharp decline in container volumes entering the port, with conditions expected to worsen through mid-May.

As we outlined here, this sudden drop in shipments from Asia, particularly from China, is likely to ripple across U.S. warehouses and trucking networks.

UPS also reported first-quarter earnings that Goldman analyst Jordan Alliger described as much better than expected: 

We come away reasonably encouraged by Domestic’s better than expected volumes (perhaps indicative that volumes ex Amazon and Chinese EC players held up better than we thought), yields and margins in the context of the AMZN wind-down – however, we fully understand that tariff and economic related uncertainty can as yet impact overall freight demand (and profit performance; note we have adjusted down most of our coverage during this EPS season) as we progress in 2025 – TBD. We would expect more color on the call around the AMZN exit and how it could be factoring into domestic margin performance in the 1Q and looking ahead.

Alliger noted that UPS did not provide any update to its full-year outlook due to economic uncertainty: 

Regarding the aforementioned uncertainty, UPS indicated that it will not be providing an update to its previous annual guide – something that is likely not unexpected, all things considered with tariffs and global trade. UPS will, however provide expectations for its 2Q 2025 financial outlook on its earnings call.

The UPS-Amazon wind-down of low-margin deliveries, combined with the incoming slowdown in freight from China due to the trade war, has created significant uncertainty for the world’s largest package delivery company. And just imagine the impact on smaller, mom-and-pop delivery firms — the conditions are nothing short of nightmarish (read:here).

TEXAS

“Nothing Is Getting Better” – Texas Services Sector Outlook Slumps, Prices Soar

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 10:45 AM

Following yesterday’s slump in a survey of Texas Manufacturing firms, the Dallas Fed released their survey of Texas Services sector firms today, and it was just a big a shitshow.

Perceptions of broader business conditions deteriorated further in April. The general business activity index dropped eight points to -19.4. In addition, outlooks worsened as the company outlook index retreated to a 34-month low of -15.5. The outlook uncertainty index jumped 13 points to 40.5 – its highest level since mid-2022. 

Respondents’ expectations regarding future business activity continued to weaken in April.

Under the hood, we saw further stagflationary signals with revenue forecast plunging as prices soar…

Tariffs were top of mind for many, just as with the Texas Manufacturing survey, as respondents broadly speaking reflected: “Nothing is getting better.”

• [Our concerns are] tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.
• We have high levels of anxiety as a result of the fast-moving changes in government restructuring and tariff policies. Although we are hoping for the best end results, the overall business environment is very volatile.
• Our major concern is the effect of tariffs.
• [We are concerned about] tariff uncertainty and price increases, mostly related to products from China; plus, we are experiencing longer lead times for orders.
• Potential supply chain impacts of proposed tariffs are being evaluated industrywide.
• All of the uncertainty is slowing private business.
• Tariffs are bringing a high level of uncertainty to our business. It is hard to tell what will happen in one week, let alone six months
• The on-again, off-again psychodrama in Washington with respect to tariffs is upsetting to almost the entirety of the business community. If the unprecedented tariffs continue, the commercial real estate and construction industries will slow to a halt soon.
• The current tariffs in effect will increase our cost of goods due to increased produce prices and certain imported proteins.
• The almost daily shifts on tariffs create havoc.
• People are acting almost in a panic about the economy.
• Tariffs [are a concern].
• We are highly concerned about a downturn in activity from a recession caused by the tariffs.
• [We are] devastated. We are a trucking company specializing in transporting international shipping containers, and there is no other word that captures what we are facing.
• We are becoming increasingly pessimistic.
• We are experiencing an unexpected decline in business activity. I see customers becoming more price sensitive and cutting back on general expenditures.

And finally, ‘chaos’, ‘erratic’, and ‘turmoil’ at The White House summed up many people’s perspectives:

• President Donald Trump has a very chaotic style of dealing with the economy.
• Erratic leadership style in Washington has led to high levels of uncertainty impacting decision making and spending.
• The insane chaos that is running the White House makes it impossible to plan anything.
• Daily instability in D.C. continues to create chaos.
• The randomness of our current president is causing paralysis.
• Uncertainty in the markets is a killer. Erratic behavior of leadership is even worse.
• We are devoting so much time to mitigating the chaos this administration is creating that we have little time left to run our business.

Not a pretty picture… and remember, this is Texans.

However, we did find one silver lining comment:

• I’m not too worried about the new tariffs. I think other countries will soon be negotiating with President Trump, and six months from now the national discussion will have moved on.

Is there hope?

“Consumers are on the fence. This will turn eventually.”

END

USA ECONOMIC NEWS

GM Pulls Guidance And Pauses Buybacks Amidst “Tariff Uncertainty”

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 10:30 AM

GM stock dipped slightly Tuesday morning after the company pulled its annual profit forecast, citing significant uncertainty created by President Trump’s evolving trade policies, according to Bloomberg, WSJ and multiple other outlets. 

Despite reporting strong first-quarter results, the Detroit automaker warned investors not to rely on previous guidance due to the potentially “significant” impact of automotive tariffs.

“We’re telling folks not to rely on the prior guidance, and we’ll update when we have more information around tariffs,” GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said during a media call. “Given the evolving nature of the situation, we believe the future impact of tariffs could be significant.”

The company’s decision comes as the White House reportedly moves to soften the impact of auto tariffs, preventing them from stacking atop existing duties like those on steel and aluminum. According to The Wall Street Journal, the administration will allow automakers to be reimbursed for overlapping tariffs, a change expected to be retroactive and officially announced before Trump’s rally in Michigan Tuesday evening.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a deal had been struck, though details remained scarce. The adjustments could offer temporary relief to domestic automakers, including GM, which assemble cars in the U.S. but rely on imported parts.

Nevertheless, GM’s leadership is urging caution. “We’re going to look for more clarity before we get into any forward projections of the tariff exposure,” Jacobson said.

In January, GM had forecast net income between $11.2 billion and $12.5 billion for 2025, excluding tariff impacts. It also projected adjusted pretax profit between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion. That forecast is now shelved.

First-quarter results showed cracks forming. GM’s net income fell 6.6% to $2.8 billion, dragged down by weaker sales of highly profitable trucks and SUVs, along with rising warranty and labor costs. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) slipped 9.8% to $3.49 billion, with EBIT-adjusted margins falling from 9% a year ago to 7.9%.

Revenue, however, rose 2.3% to $44 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $43 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.78, also ahead of expectations. GM credited a last-minute surge in car buying in March, as consumers sought to beat potential price hikes from new tariffs that began earlier this month.

While the results slightly exceeded Wall Street’s cautious predictions, they revealed growing challenges for a company that has ridden high profits in recent years. Jacobson pointed to an “unusually strong” first quarter in 2024 following the resolution of a United Auto Workers strike, suggesting 2025’s first quarter suffered by comparison.

Earlier this month, GM reported U.S. sales jumped 17% year-over-year to 693,363 units, led by strength in trucks and EVs across its Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC brands. Full-size pickups, particularly the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, delivered their best first-quarter sales since 2007.

Nonetheless, GM is bracing for a turbulent year ahead. The company delayed its analysts’ call until Thursday, an unusual step reflecting the fast-changing policy environment.

Chair and CEO Mary Barra, in a statement, said, “We appreciate the productive conversations with the President and his Administration and look forward to continuing to work together.”

In the meantime, GM announced it would pause new share buybacks beyond the $2 billion plan slated for completion in the second quarter, pending greater economic clarity. It stressed there was no current need to raise additional capital.

END

Lutnick Rolls Out Auto Tariff Relief As US Pushes To Reshore Supply Chains

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 12:15 PM

Update (1215ET):

On Tuesday morning, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick provided clarity on the highly anticipated auto tariff relief, confirming it will apply to all U.S.-built vehicles.

Lutnick said tariffs will apply to those produced by foreign automakers with plants in the US. He added that the relief would be phased in over three years, giving manufacturers time to shift their supply chains back to the U.S. 

Headlines:

• LUTNICK: TARIFF RELIEF AVAILABLE TO ALL U.S.-BUILT VEHICLES
• LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN THE U.S
• LUTNICK:  TARIFF RELIEF TO BE PHASED IN OVER THREE YEARS TO ALLOW AUTOMAKERS TO PRODUCE SUPPLY CHAINS IN THE U.S.
• LUTNICK: ALL CARS THAT ARE FINISHED IN U.S. THAT HAVE 85% DOMESTIC CONTENT WILL HAVE NO TARIFFS
• LUTNICK: MANUFACTURERS OF U.S.-BUILT AUTOS WILL GET 15% OFFSET FOR VALUE OF THOSE VEHICLES AGAINST PARTS IMPORTS
• LUTNICK: AUTO MANUFACTURERS WILL PICK THE HIGHEST TARIFF THAT COMES WITH THEIR GOODS AND THEY WILL ONLY PAY ONE
• LUTNICK: AUTO MAKERS WILL PAY EITHER STEEL OR AUTO TARIFF, WHICHEVER IS HIGHER
• LUTNICK: TWO YEARS WAS AGREED TIME TO GIVE MANUFACTURERS SUFFICIENT TIME TO BUILD UP SUPPLY CHAIN
• LUTNICK: THERE IS NO THIRD YEAR OF RELIEF

Supply Chain Crisis Looms: Shortages Set to Slam Markets!

by AJ Monte CMT

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 8:20

In the bustling heart of global commerce, a perfect storm is brewing. The intricate web of supply chains, already strained by years of geopolitical tensions, labor disputes, and climate-driven disruptions, teeters on the brink of collapse. Container ships languish at overcrowded ports, semiconductor factories idle due to raw material scarcity, and energy shortages cripple manufacturing hubs. From Asia to North America, the flow of goods grinds to a halt.

The ripple effects are immediate and brutal. Store shelves empty as consumer staples like electronic, clothing, and even food staples vanish. Small businesses, unable to secure inventory, shutter their doors, while major corporations report staggering losses. Stock markets, rattled by the uncertainty, plunge into volatility, erasing trillions in value as investors panic.

Take Nissan Motor, Japan’s third-largest automaker, which recently projected a record-breaking annual loss of $4.91 billion to $5.26 billion for the financial year ending March 2025. Crippled by supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in semiconductor chips, Nissan has been forced to slash production and close plants. The company’s restructuring efforts, including job cuts and capacity reductions reflect the desperate measures needed to service a market where parts shortages have halted assembly lines. Nissan’s stock plummeted as investors recoiled from the grim forecast, dragging down other automakers in its wake.

Behind the scenes, executives scramble to reroute supply lines, but solutions are scarce. Trade wars escalate as nations hoard critical resources, and desperate governments impose export bans, further choking global trade. Analysts warn of a prolonged crisis, with some predicting a “lost decade” for economic growth.

Stay focused on the Real-Time Indicators

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), developed by Freight Waves SONAR, is a key metric that measures the volume of electronic load offers (tenders) from shippers to truckload carriers, for transporting goods across the United States. It serves as a real-time indicator of trucking demand and provides insights into the health of the supply chain and the broader economy. Below is a chart that tells us the hard truth….Our Supply Chain is in BIG Trouble.

As the world braces for impact, the question looms: Can markets adapt, or will this crisis redefine the global economy for generations?

END

House GOP Gears Up For Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” Budget Braw

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 05:20 PM

House Republicans have returned to Washington after a two-week break, laser-focused on assembling the “big, beautiful bill” that’s set to carry President Trump’s legislative agenda, and they’re wasting no time getting to work.

Six of the 11 House committees tasked with piecing together the massive package are holding markups this week, with the others gearing up to join the push in the coming days. The plan is to stitch the various proposals together in the House Budget Committee before sending the final monster bill to the floor.

The Republicans are banking on the budget reconciliation process to ram the legislation through without needing a single Democrat vote, bypassing the Senate filibuster – which of course assumes the GOP can stay united. With a razor-thin margin, just four Republican defections could sink the entire package.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had circled Memorial Day on the calendar as the deadline to get the bill on President Trump’s desk. But even getting it through the House within the next month looks dicey, thanks to intraparty squabbles over spending and tax cut details.

The action kicks off Tuesday with three committees, Armed Services, Homeland Security, and Education & Workforce – meeting at the same time.

The Armed Services Committee is proposing a staggering $150 billion in defense funding, including $34 billion for shipbuilding, $25 billion for a “Golden Dome” missile defense system, and $21 billion to restock America’s munitions. “President Trump has a visionary strategy of peace through strength, and this investment is how we begin to execute it,” said Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL).

Meanwhile, the Homeland Security Committee plans to shovel $46.5 billion into completing Trump’s border wall and boosting border security tech. There’s also $5 billion earmarked to upgrade Customs and Border Patrol facilities, $4.1 billion to hire over 8,000 new agents, and $2 billion to keep and recruit staff with bonuses.

The Education & Workforce Committee is doing its part to find savings, touting $330 billion in cuts by overhauling student loan programs. “This plan brings accountability and holds schools financially responsible for loading students up with debt,” said Chairman Tim Walberg (R-MI).

But these are the easy fights. The real fireworks are expected when committees turn to tackling safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps, and hammering out the details on tax cuts – areas where Republicans are eyeing even bigger savings but where internal divisions loom large.

Democrats aren’t sitting idly by. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) led a 12-hour sit-in on the Capitol steps Sunday to protest potential cuts to Medicaid and other safety net programs.

“As Democrats, we’re going to continue to stand on the side of the American people, and we will not rest until we bury this reckless Republican budget in the ground,” Jeffries vowed.

Booker chimed in, hoping enough Republicans could be pressured to “do the right thing and vote no.”

The legislative slog continues Wednesday, when the Judiciary, Financial Services, Oversight and Government Reform, and Transportation & Infrastructure committees dive into their pieces of the bill.

The Judiciary Committee’s slice is packed with immigration crackdowns: $45 billion to expand detention facilities, $14.4 billion for transport and removal ops, $8 billion to hire more ICE agents, and $1.25 billion for immigration judges and staff.

Oversight and Government Reform found more than $50 billion in offsets, including $31 billion from hiking federal workers’ retirement contributions and $10 billion by axing an early retirement annuity for most employees.

Financial Services would claw back unspent Inflation Reduction Act funds for green housing retrofits, fold the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board into the SEC, and cap the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s funding.

The Transportation & Infrastructure Committee is set to unveil its piece Tuesday.

With the clock ticking and tensions rising, the fate of Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is barreling toward a showdown — and the GOP’s unity will be put to the ultimate test.

END

Trump Moves To Ease Automaker Pain With Tariff Relief On Foreign Par

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 07:20 AM

Global stocks were steady overnight, with U.S. equity futures marginally higher, as sentiment improved following reports that President Trump plans to ease tariffs on foreign auto parts used in U.S.-made vehicles. The news comes as Trump marks his first 100 days in office, ahead of a rally in Michigan scheduled for this evening. 

The Wall Street Journal, citing multiple sources familiar with the plans, reported that the proposed tariff rollback would offer major relief to automakers producing vehicles within the U.S. borders. These companies have been battered by the trade war due to their deeply entrenched supply chains spanning Asia and Europe. 

Sources added more color to what the tariff reprieve looks like: 

The decision will mean that automakers paying Trump’s automotive tariffs won’t also be charged for other duties, such as those on steel and aluminum, according to people familiar with the policy.

The move would be retroactive, the people said, meaning that automakers could be reimbursed for such tariffs already paid. The 25% tariff on finished foreign-made cars went into effect early this month.

The administration will also modify its tariffs on foreign auto parts—slated to be 25% and effective May 3—allowing automakers to be reimbursed for those tariffs up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year. The reimbursement would fall to 2.5% of the car’s value in a second year, and then be phased out altogether.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told WSJ in a statement about Trump’s move to ease the pain for automakers: 

President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers.

This deal will be a major victory for the president’s trade policy by rewarding companies who are already manufacturing domestically, while providing a runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment in investing in America and expanding domestic manufacturing.

In a separate statement to Bloomberg, Lutnick said:

This deal is a major victory for the president’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.

Trump’s trade war is an urgent move to shift critical supply chains out of China, either by relocating them to a friendlier shore or reshoring them. 

Ford CEO Jim Farley commented on the WSJ report:

Ford welcomes and appreciates these decisions by President Trump, which will help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers and consumers.

We will continue to work closely with the administration in support of the president’s vision for a healthy and growing auto industry in America. Ford sees policies that encourage exports and ensure affordable supply chains to promote more domestic growth as essential. 

This news comes ahead of Trump’s trip to Michigan to celebrate the first 100 days of his second term in office. The president will speak at Macomb Community College in Warren, about 20 miles north of Detroit, around 6:00 p.m. local time.

Ahead of Trump’s first 100 days, crazed Michigan Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar filed articles of impeachment against the president, stating:

I have introduced articles of impeachment against President Trump. When Trump ignores the Constitution, Congress, and the courts, he is not ‘fighting for America.’ He is tearing it down and endangering our democracy.

Trump’s pivot on auto tariffs represents the latest development in his ever-changing trade strategy to friend-shore or re-shore critical supply chains.

end

Amazon Shares Tumble After White House Calls Tariff-Tracker ‘Hostile And Political Ac

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 09:20 AM

Shares of Amazon tumbled to premarket lows Tuesday after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the company’s recent decision to display the effect of tariffs on products a “hostile and political act,” adding “why didn’t Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?”

“It’s not a surprise,” Leavitt continued, adding “Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm. So this is another reason Americans should buy American.”

Watch:

AMZN shares are trading over 2% lower in the pre-market following the remarks.

The e-commerce giant will soon display how much of an item’s cost is derived from tariffs – ‘right next to the product’s total listed price,’ Punchbowl News reported earlier Tuesday.

Of note, companies like Amazon and Shein Group Ltd. are bracing for a 120% tariff on many of their products due to the US government’s decision to end the “de minimis” exemption which allowed goods valued at under $800 to pass into the US without tariffs or customs duties.

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who attended the press briefing, Amazon’s move to highlight tariffs is unfair given that the costs of policies implemented by other administrations (including regulations) aren’t being broken out by Amazon.

“The big tax on consumers that goes unnoticed is deregulation or regulation, and we are deregulating and bringing that down,” Bessent said. “So you know, from a household income point of view, we would expect real purchasing increases that we’ve seen over the first 100 days, and we would expect that to accelerate.”

Needless to say, this “hostile and political” move by Amazon is catching heat…

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

Trump, Tariffs, Trade… And A Taboo?

Monday, Apr 28, 2025 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

After only a hundred days, the Trump counterrevolution has made quite miraculous progress on the border, illegal immigration, cost-cutting, curbing the DEI/woke revolution, and a historic Ukrainian War settlement.

The pushback to this multifront effort from the left has been formidable, if not hysterical. The greatest fury mostly centers around Trump’s efforts to force U.S. trading partners to adopt either reciprocal or no tariffs while obeying international trading norms—an effort aimed at vastly reducing the U.S. trade deficit.

If Trump could cut a proverbial deal in the next 100 days that, say, cut the annual $1.2 trillion trade deficit in half, coupled with multitrillion-dollar foreign investments, then stocks and bonds would settle down.

Wall Street would go back to its traditional platitudes that the trade deficit then would be no higher than the 3-percent-of-GDP red line.

Stocks would then soar in anticipation of the other news of a continuation of tax cuts, more budgetary reductions, robust energy development, and further deregulation.

The U.S. has run a half-century of trade deficits. And now the red ink has climbed to nearly $1.2 trillion, the largest in history. 

Yet for all practical purposes, only a few entities account for most of an astronomical sum. And they all have corollary concerns to the U.S. that make their surpluses part of larger problems.

The administration can accurately talk about “70 nations wanting to deal.” But, in truth, if Trump were to settle with just China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, and the ten-nation Southeast Asian trading bloc (ASEAN), then the so-called trade wars would be over.

Start with our North American partners Mexico ($171.9 billion surplus) and Canada ($63 billion surplus) that alone account for over 20 percent of the U.S. trade deficit.

Canada’s surplus is almost entirely attributable to its vast oil and gas sales to the U.S. Almost all its daily oil exports go to the U.S., some four million barrels—as well as half its natural gas shipments.

Canada claims that it sells oil and power at a discount to the northern U.S. It also boasts that its asymmetrical sky-high tariffs on American dairy products and poultry are rarely used if the American exports just stay below certain thresholds. But aren’t thresholds themselves a form of tariff?

Canadian oil deposits are landlocked and far from ports. Canadian crude is heavy, sulfurous, and difficult to refine for many nations’ refineries. In contrast, the huge U.S. market right across the border and the ability of American refineries to handle Canadian crude explain the “discount” better than simple Canadian magnanimity.

Moreover, Canada is one of the stingiest of NATO partners. It is underinvesting in military readiness at only 1.37 percent of its GDP on defense, stonewalling its 2 percent commitment for over a decade.

Should the Trump administration prompt Canada to invest 2 percent in defense—about $41 billion extra—and buy enough U.S. products to cut its surpluses, say, by $10-20 billion of its current $63 billion, a deal could and should be easily reached.

Mexico’s surplus is huge and growing at $171 billion. It is largely created by assembling cars, electronic goods, and appliances sent to it from other countries to enter the U.S. market with reduced taxes.

Trump could ask Mexico to cut that $171 billion in half, particularly given that Mexican cartels funnel an estimated $10 billion to $20 billion annually into the U.S. through drug smuggling. Their drug factories are designed for U.S. export and contribute to the deaths of 60,000 to 100,000 Americans through opioid overdoses.

Add in the $63 billion in untaxed remittances that Mexico’s expatriates send home. Most senders are illegally residing in the U.S. Additionally, many are subsidized by local, state, and federal American entitlements to free up their cash to be sent home.

In other words, like Canada, there are other issues with Mexico transcending trade alone. To even the playing field, Trump could either focus on the cartels, tax remittances, or urge Mexico to buy more U.S. goods in a tripartite effort to reduce the outflow by half.

China’s surplus with the U.S. is the largest at $300 billion. And it is the most difficult to address, given that Chinese global tentacles have compromised dozens of nations. Still, we retain far greater leverage on Beijing than Beijing has on us. But to use such levers—stopping visas to 300,000 students, delisting Chinese out-of-compliance companies from our stock exchanges, curbing all technological transfers that have military applications and key spare parts for their imported goods—we would then enter a veritable Cold War.

Instead, China should use its over $1 trillion trade surplus to raise the standard of living for its own 1.4 billion consumers. But redirecting its export economy would cut back on its geostatic initiatives of massively rearming, the Belt and Road imperialist adventure, and spreading billions of dollars around in the Western world to influence universities and buying up strategic property.

Unless Trump wishes an all-out trade war, he, for now, should aim at reducing the Chinese surplus by $300-500 billion and seek some trade reforms, given Chinese violations of every international commercial canon.

The EU runs up a $235 billion surplus with America—mostly from the surpluses incurred by Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, France, and Italy, which export massive amounts of pharmaceuticals, chemicals, cars, and machinery.

The EU’s socialist and highly regulated member economies grant direct subsidies to industry and agriculture and rely on contorted uses of the VAT tax and asymmetrical tariffs to gain an advantage over U.S. goods. As a rule, the EU ministers despise Trump, are closely allied with the kindred American left, and would likely do nothing to help Trump unless pressured.

In somewhat ironic fashion, the EU suffers a $315 trade deficit with China but then turns around to run up a $235 surplus with the U.S. That circular strategy helps to ensure the EU can still rely on an aggregate $171 billion surplus with the world, again largely due to the U.S.

In the EU’s case, its $235 billion surplus with the U.S. is an inseparable issue from its assumption that the United States’s strategic arsenal and oversized NATO presence have always ensured European continental security.

The U.S. spends the most of the NATO membership on defense and is largely responsible for prodding 24 of the 32 NATO members finally to meet their 2-percent obligations, and timely so given the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Unlike the ASEAN countries that are trying to reach Western standards of prosperity by piling up trade surpluses, the EU is struggling to maintain its own wobbling prosperity. Its disastrous energy policies, wide-open borders, massive Islamic immigration, and political paranoia about the rise of populist conservative parties have impoverished Europe materially and culturally.

What can we conclude from this global labyrinth of trade?

Most nations see the U.S. market and its reserve currency as critical to their export industries. They believe America is wedded to libertarian economics and would never impose tariffs similar to their own.

They understand, as do Americans, that a $37 trillion national debt, a $1.2 trillion trade deficit, and a $2 trillion budget deficit are force multipliers of each other and not sustainable. But until those numbers hit critical mass, most nations will remain as eager to keep running up surpluses as Americans have been to borrow and spend.

So, what is the logic behind Trump’s loud art-of-the-deal trade gambits?

He wants our “friends” and “allies” to seek reciprocity defined either as symmetrical or no tariffs, some reductions in their trade surpluses, and greater investment in the U.S.—in preference, of course, to a trade war.

For belligerents like China, Trump seeks to coerce it to follow global rules of commerce that it flaunts with impunity to run a global mercantile system based on technology theft, asymmetrical tariffs, espionage, and its loan-sharking Belt and Road initiatives designed to pry away nations from the Western orbit.

Will the Trump trade and tariff strategy work?

It can if it follows some simple dos and don’ts.

1.  Trump knows that other nations privately concede they are taking advantage of the U.S. and are willing to renegotiate – if Trump shows them some deference, cools somewhat the “rip-off” language, and settles for gradualism. He has the moral high ground. 

To win his current tariff standoffs, he needs not achieve instant trade parity, but perhaps instead only prod nations to cut their particular deficits with the U.S. in half, with a schedule of more parity and further surplus reductions to come.

2.  The U.S. economy is not in recession. Job growth, stable prices, increased energy production and low prices, and corporate profits were all encouraging in March and April. News of an impending budget bill that extends tax cuts and deregulates, along with trillions of dollars in new foreign investments and budget discipline, will all fuel stock markets.

And what a funny stock market cohort—the 10 percent who own 93 percent of the nation’s stock market capitalization! From May through August of last year, investors boasted that they had hit 40,000 in the Dow Jones.

Now, less than a year later, their portfolios are back at 40,000. And yet still they moan that they lost trillions of dollars in March. These strange people apparently believe that the highest stock market peak is encased in amber as their God-given permanent profit. (They should try farming where commodity prices remain volatile and can wipe out a grower in a season if prices collapse and often do—and sometimes do not return to previous highs for years on end.)

3.  The world may fear China, but it hates it even more, given its commercial bullying, trade mercantilism, autocracy, and military buildup. 

For all their double-dealing, the Europeans and our Asian partners will come to appreciate that someone is finally risking it all to bridle China into following global rules while deterring its expanding military.

4.  Trump might wish to pivot to a “tragic” style of discourse. He can remind the world he inherited a $3-billion-a-day interest tab on a growing $37-trillion national debt, fueled by $2-trillion budget deficits, which are all force multipliers of the effects of an annual $1-trillion trade deficit.

In other words, he did not want to lay off employees at home, slash programs, or badger and provoke our friends abroad. But at least in the past quarter-century, no president has made any progress on any deficit and debt front. So, Trump can admit he had no choice given the magnitude and variety of the red ink and America’s impending rendezvous with financial Armageddon.

5.  There may be one important taboo.

Trump might curb talk of “revenue,” as if we can return to the pre-income tax age, prior to 1913, when federal revenue came largely from tariffs.

Today’s tariffs prior to 2025 account for only $77 billion of the total annual revenue of $5.27 trillion. Even the most optimistic estimates suggest $1-3 trillion in new Trump tariff income over the next decade, with the new proposed trade policies. That might mean some $100-300 billion more per year—a fraction of our current aggregate annual income.

But far more importantly, the American people will stick with Trump if they believe we are victimized by predatory nations whose asymmetrical tariffs deliberately run up surpluses with the U.S.

They want to see the Trump trade war as an effort to obtain either similar or no tariffs with trade partners and reduce trade deficits. But if the U.S. preempts and raises higher tariffs on those with whom we now run surpluses (like the U.K. and Australia) or brags that we can become rich from tariffs (at other nations’ expense), then the administration will lose the moral high ground, and the people will not support his cause.

In sum, Trump will win this tariff spat if he sticks to “parity” and “fairness” and downplays talking about gargantuan “profits.”

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