GOLD CLOSED DOWN $14.05 TO $3,309.35
SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.65 TO $32.65
OPTION’S EXPIRY/WEDNESDAY APRIL 30 OTC/LONDON OPTIONS EXPIRY
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3295.30
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.59
Bitcoin morning price:$95,185 DOWN 105 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $94,068 DOWN 1222 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $18.10 TO $969.75
Palladium price; DOWN $7.05 TO $944.30
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,541.22 DOWN $54.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2472.73 DOWN 5.74 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,559.38 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 21/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2,910.98 DOWN 7.54 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2,973.82 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX FINAL APRIL:
CONTRACT: APRIL 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,332.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/29/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 04/30/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 49
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 10
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 42
991 H CME 3
TOTAL: 52 52
MONTH TO DATE: 64,806
COMPLETES APRIL
MAY
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,318.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/29/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/01/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 404
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 04/29/2025 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 04/29/2025
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:26:08
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 5
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 2960
323 C HSBC 320 1263
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 2948
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1958
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 251
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 99
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 131
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 2222
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 2870 983
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 73
700 C UBS SECURITIES LLC 50
709 C BARCLAYS 789 413
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 17
880 H CITIGROUP 516
905 C ADM 14
TOTAL: 9,143 9,143
MONTH TO DATE: 9,143
jpmorgan stopped: 983/9183
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 9143 NOTICES FOR 914300 OZ 28.438 TONNES
total notices so far: 9143 contracts for 914,300 OR 28.438 tonnes)
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 11,492 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 58.460 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 11,692 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 58.460 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.65 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 454.289 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1921 CONTRACTS TO 152,669 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1431 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 490 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING TUESDAY SPRINKLED WITH FINALLIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADERS AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE BUT THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 363 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A HUGE 490 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR GOOD 363 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN WEDNESDAY’S LONDON/.OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 1654 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT TODAY WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS OF THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ (0 MILLION OZ). THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THUS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAVE A TOTAL OF 4.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON TWO OCCASIONS. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A GOOD 363 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A GAIN IN PRICE, WE LOST A MEGA HUGE 1654 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUGE 490 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 67.830 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (490 CONTRACTS)/ VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 362 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 431 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 23 DAYS, total 20,179 contracts: OR 100.895 MILLION OZ (877 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 100.895 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1921 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG 490 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 490 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
NEW INITITAL STANDING FOR MAY: 67.830 MILLION OZ.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (363 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE WEDNESDAY TRADING.(OPTIONS EXPIRY)
WE HAD 11,492 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 58.460 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4511 OI CONTRACTS TO 452,586 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A SMALL 718 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (3793 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $13.45 IN PRICE TUESDAY. LAST WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES (CME CORRECTED// MAYBE?) TO WHICH WE ADDED
+ 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.800 TONNES
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 28.945 TONNES OF GOLD!
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $13.45 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4493 OI CONTRACTS (13.97 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AND THE SAME FOR APRIL AND NOW MAY. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS. WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 650 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 451,868//NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4443 CONTRACTS WITH 3793 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 650 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4443 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1133 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION TUESDAY WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS IN PRICE BUT NOTHING ELSE!!
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (650 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3793 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4443 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FINALIZES AT APRIL 201.573 TONNES AND THIS FOLLOWS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE ON 7 OCCASIONS FOR 8.3571 TONNES//NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 209.953 TONNES.
//FINAL STANDING APRIL: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK ON 7 OCCASIONS = 209.953 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT: 28.945 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION+ ZERO SUCCESS IN REMOVING ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE DESPITE HAVING 1)A HUGE $13.45 COMEX PRICE LOSS.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 5161 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ALL OF IT DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE FINAL TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD IN APRIL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (650 CONTRACTS)///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1133 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL/FINAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 67,056 CONTRACTS OR 6,705,600 OZ OR 208.57 TONNES IN 23 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2915 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 23 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 208.57 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 208.57 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.87% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY:
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1921 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,868 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 490 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 490 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 490 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2144 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 490 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1654 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.270 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.30 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.62 PTS OR .23%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 111.30 PTS OR 0.51%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 205.38 PTS OR .57% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.64%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2659 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2683/ Oil UP TO 61.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.50 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING
STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
END
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3793 CONTRACTS TO 451,868 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.45 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS DESPITE THAT PRICE LOSSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A TINY NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (650 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES. SO FAR THIS MONTH WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STANDS AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST TWO PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON APRIL COMEX MONTH
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5161 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH OF APRIL CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A LOT LESS THAN FROM OUR PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AT 1133 CONTRACTS
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 219 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1.2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW INTO LAST STAGES OF OUR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL .… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A TINY SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A TINY SIZED 650 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /APRIL 650 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4443 CONTRACTS IN THAT 650 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3793 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.45 FOR TUESDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOWER OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX!
THE ENTIRE GAIN IN OI AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO:
- FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADERS
- LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1133 CONTRACTS, AS AGAIN, ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PER THEIR MEGA 5 DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S THESE PAST FEW MONTHS,, THE FED HAS BEEN EXPERIMENTING WITH EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY….TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN HOPING FOR A DIFFERENT RESULT. HIS DEFINITION STILL STANDS.. THE CROOKS ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING AS NOBODY LEFT OUR GOLD METAL ARENA. DURING OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK, A HUGE RAID WAS ORDERED BY THE FED WITH END OF THE MONTH TRADING ( FEB 25 THROUGH FEB 28) AS THE GOLD PRICE GOT HAMMERED A BIT WITH ONLY THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD LOWERING! . AND ,FOR MARCH, WE HAD+ ANOTHER 5 DAY MEGA ISSUANCE BUT CORRESPONDING MEGA RAIDS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT WEDNESDAY MARCH 17, THE 38,393 T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD! WE HAD NO MEGA 30,000 + TAS CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR APRIL.
THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH AND APRIL. (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
A LITTLE HISTORY….. JAN, FEB AND MARCH OPTIONS EXPIRY:
ON FEB 25, THE BANKERS USED A HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR//MONTH END SPREADERS . THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE JANUARY OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING AND AGAIN WITH FEBRUARY OPTION EXPIRY MONTH. HALF WAY THROUGH THE JANUARY COMEX MONTH, THE CROOKS ISSUED FIVE CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF T.A.S KNOWING THAT THEY WERE GOING TO INITIATE HUGE RAIDS ON OUR METALS. THEN THEY ISSUED IN LATE FEB, ANOTHER 5 CONSECUTIVE 30,000+ ISSUANCES. AND THEN, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN COMEX HISTORY WE WITNESSED THREE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF MEGA HUGE 30,000 + T.A.S CONTRACT ISSUANCES: JANUARY, FEB AND MARCH. WE ARE NOW FACING THIS WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LONDON OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY (APRIL 30) WHERE BOTH SPREADERS WILL BE IN ACTION STOPPING GOLD’S ADVANCE.
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: INITITAL STANDING AT 28.945 TONNES OF GOLD
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 51 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: INITITAL 28.945 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING/APRIL CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A $13.45/ /)/BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY COUPLED WITH FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION AS THEY WERE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE $3,400 AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS THEY SUCCEEDED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO STOP THE PENETRATION OF OUR $3,400 DOLLAR GOLD BARRIER SO FAR.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD) THIS PAST MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /APRIL TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
NOW APRIL, ISSUES ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK/APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD NOW FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE;
WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 13.97 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.45
WE HAD A STRONG 718 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4443 CONTRACTS OR 444,300 0Z (13.97 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 180,637.. contracts: small volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
APRIL
// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
APRIL30
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | . withdrawals: 5 entries a)) Out of Loomis: 160.755 oz (50 kilobars) b) Out of Asahi 73,690.092 oz (2292 kilobars) c) Out of JPMorgan 160,755.000 oz 5,000 kilobars d) Out of Brinks 122,398.857 oz (3807 kilobars) e) Out of Malca 10,414.785 oz total withdrawal: 367,419.489 (11,42 tonnes) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Into dealer Brinks: 172,940.229 oz (5379 kilobars) 5.379 tonnes |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | we have 0 customer entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 9143 notice(s) 914,300 OZ 28.438 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 163 contracts 16,300 OZ 0.5069 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 9143 notices 914,300 oz 28.438 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1 entry
i)Into Brinks 172,940.229 oz (5379 kilobars)
5.379 tonnes
TOTAL WEIGHT; 5.379 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
we have 0 customer entries deposits
nil customer deposit
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
5 entries
a)) Out of Loomis: 160.755 oz (50 kilobars)
b) Out of Asahi 73,690.092 oz (2292 kilobars)
c) Out of JPMorgan 160,755.000 oz 5,000 kilobars
d) Out of Brinks 122,398.857 oz (3807 kilobars)
e) Out of Malca 10,414.785 oz
total withdrawal: 367,419.489 (11,42 tonnes)
adjustments: 6//first 5 dealer to customer
a)Asahi: dealer to customer: 11,350.451 oz
b) Brinks: 95,163.165 oz
c) Loomis 32,215.302 oz
d) Malca: 96,453.000 oz
e) Manfra: 144,030.830 oz
e)Customer to dealer stonex: 16,010.260 oz
net dealer to customer 363,202.488 oz or 11.25 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 9306 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 881CONTRACTS.
THUS BE DEFINITION, THE INITITAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR THIS OFF MONTH OF MAY IS AS FOLLOWS:
9306 NOTICES X 1000 OZ OF GOLD PER NOTICE
EQUALS
930600 OZ OF GOLD OR 28.945 TONNES
I WROTE THE FOLLOWING YESTERDAY:
“MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND WE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A MEGA WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH EVEN THOUGH IT IS AN OFF MONTH!(APPROX 26 TONNES WILL STAND).”
WE GAINED EVEN HIGHER THAN I EXPECTED.
JUNE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS TO 323,562. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH.
We had 9143 contracts filed for today representing 914,300 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 2870 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 9143 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 983 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9143 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (9306 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (9143 x 100 oz per contract) equals 930,600 OZ OR 28.945 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (9143 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (9306 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (9143 x 100 oz) which equals 930,600 OZ OR 28.945 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 28.945 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,770,121.412 oz 55.05 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 41,383,124.530 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,525,274.616 or 638.43 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 20,857,829.814 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 18,755,153oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 583.36tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
// THE APRIL 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
APRIL 30
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 withdrawal entry i) Loomis 604,626.63 oz total withdrawal: 604,626.63 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0/ entry |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 entries i)Into ASAHI: 607,141,800 oz ii) Into JPMorgan: 1,775,321.800 oz total deposit: 2,382,463.600 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 11,692 CONTRACT(S) (58.460 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1 contract (5000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 11,692 Contracts (58.460million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
0 entries/dealer
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
deposits customer side
2 entries
i)Into ASAHI: 607,141,800 oz
ii) Into JPMorgan: 1,775,321.800 oz
total deposit: 2,382,463.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx) withdrawal customer acct
1 withdrawal entry
i) Loomis
604,626.63 oz
total withdrawal: 604,626.63 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 2
both customer to dealer
a) from CNT 2,452,145.596 oz
b) Out of Delaware: 64,086.997 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 204.100million oz/500.876 oz million or 40.71%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 165.721 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 500.876Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 13,566 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 4077 CONTRACTS. THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY IS AS FOLLOWS:
13,566 NOTICES X 5000 OZ OF SILVER PER NOTICE
EQUALS
67.830 MILLION OZ
I WROTE THE FOLLOWING YESTERDAY:
” MAY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING THIS MONTH.
(PROBABLY NORTH OF 12,000 CONTRACTS OR 60 MILLION OZ)”
I WAS KIND OF SHORT ON MY PREDICTION AS TO WHAT WILL STAND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 172 CONTRACTS UP TO 3226 CONTRACTS.
JULY GAINED 1523 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,602
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 11692 or 58.460 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 65,507 fair//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 11,692 X5,000 oz = 58.460 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (13,566) AND the number of notices served upon today (11,692 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (11,692) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(13,566) minus number of notices served upon today (11,692)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 67.830 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 67.830 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 163.205million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
APRIL9 WITH GOLD UP $83.50 TODAY// MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.171 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.23 TONNES
APRIL8 WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.78 TONNES
APRIL3 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.85 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
APRIL2 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.37 TONNES
APRIL1 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.38 TONNES
MARCH 31 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.36 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.07 TONNES
MARCH 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 20.08 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.51 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 947.13 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
APRIL9 WITH SILVER UP $0.96 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.104 MILLION
APRIL8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447,421 MILLION
APRIL3 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.138 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.830 MILLION
APRIL2 WITH SILVER UP 0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .364 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.968 MILLION
APRIL1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 0.91000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.092 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.422 MILLION
MARCH 27 WITH SILVER UP $.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 13.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.883 MILLION
MARCH 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.04 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.728 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.234 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 454.289 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2, EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
China’s gold policy coming to a head
42-years ago, the PBOC was appointed with sole responsibility for managing China’s gold. China is now planning a gold exchange standard for the yuan as a trading currency.
| Alasdair MacleodApr 30∙Paid |
So far, China’s gold policy has been tightly controlled, with the price rising in recent years to broadly reflect the decline in the dollar’s true purchasing power. With investors globally now threatening a new rush into the best performing asset over the last six months (up 16.57% v. S&P down 7%), based on its own momentum gold is likely to outperform its value input from a falling dollar.
We assume that it is only investors in Western capital markets latching onto the gold bull. But it’s also true of the bulk of Chinese households with annual savings of the equivalent of $2.5 trillion burning holes in their pockets. While we may think of them as being ahead of Western investors, they are not. Like their Western counterparts, they are only just starting to invest in gold.
The impact will be profound. How gold behaves in the coming months will impact on China’s longstanding plans to secure the independence of the yuan from the dollar: a dollar now doomed to follow every other fiat currency in history towards oblivion. The Chinese government will have some interesting decisions to take, and the matter is becoming urgent.
The background to China’s gold policies
There is no doubt that since the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) was appointed with sole responsibility for the acquisition of gold in June 1983, the State Council’s policy was to accumulate significant quantities of gold to protect the yuan from a potential collapse of the dollar, or from currency wars by China’s enemies.
Under Mao’s communism, graduates of Chinese universities had been taught that capitalism would eventually fail, and their currencies collapse with it. For this reason, the yuan’s relationship with foreign currencies required strict state control. The PBOC had and still has a monopoly in currency dealings into and out of the domestic economy. China’s citizens were prohibited from owning foreign exchange and gold, and any gold in their possession had to be given up to the PBOC by law.
In the period 1980-2000 there were significant inward investment flows as foreign manufacturers set up production facilities in China, leading to large trade surpluses that have continued to this day. I calculated that putting aside just 10% of these flows by 2002 to acquire gold at contemporary prices would have led to the accumulation of about 20,000 tonnes.
We forget, perhaps, that in the early 1980s and before the gold bear market destroyed Western investment confidence in gold, conventional wisdom in centres such as Switzerland was that gold should form a minimum of 10%-20% of any portfolio. In this context, my estimate of 20,000 tonnes for China seemed reasonably conservative, given the mores of the time.
Whatever the actual amount, there can be little doubt that the PBOC secretly accumulated substantial quantities of bullion, its own declared reserves being a just small fraction of the total. The year 2002 was significant, because that was when the PBOC set up the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and permitted citizens to buy and own gold, signalling that the state had acquired enough.
Concurrently with the PBOC’s gold acquisition policy, the state pursued a strategy of enhancing China’s mine output, much of which it contracted out to private sector actors, and of importing doré for refining. None of this gold was permitted to be exported, other than some gold into Hong Kong for the jewellery trade, predominantly supplying Chinese tourists from the mainland, gold that was substantially reimported. Cumulatively, gold mine output since 1983 added a further 10,000 tonnes to China’s total gold.
Having satisfied China’s strategic requirements, the opening of the SGE indicated that it was then time to encourage private sector actors to accumulate gold. Since then, they have accumulated substantial quantities amounting to about 27,000 tonnes, gross of scrap resubmitted into the SGE for re-refining.
Over the last 43 years, large amounts of gold have also been imported from Western capital markets, a noticeable flow from west to east. Much of this is recorded in customs reports as non-monetary gold. But what the PBOC actually imports is suspected as being underreported. We can only guess at how much gold there is distributed around various Communist Party accounts out of sight. Furthermore, it is a one-way direction of travel with a ban on gold exports.
In 2014, I interviewed a director of a leading Swiss gold refinery and asked him how many Chinese refined bars he had seen. He answered: none. I asked him the same question about five years later, and he said he hadn’t seen any, but thought that other refiners had seen a few, which he suspected had been smuggled out of China. So for all intents we can assume that China is one big Hotel California so far as gold is concerned.
The private sector is only just getting started
This brings us up to the present day. So far the Chinese authorities have managed a gold acquisition programme skilfully and with China’s private sector have locked in the largest national bullion reserves on the planet. Including jewellery and private sector investment, they could easily amount to as much as 75,000 tonnes or 35% of the world’s estimated above-ground stocks.
But now there are signs that private-sector actors are only just beginning to take gold seriously. At the SGE’s withdrawal figure of 27,000 tonnes, ownership is about 0.02 of a gramme per head of population, mostly non-monetary in the form of jewellery.
However, physical gold is easily accessed by households, with many banks offering gold accumulation plans alongside their normal savings and deposit facilities. Bank gold reserves held against their customers’ gold liabilities remain vaulted in the SGE vaulting system, along with gold backing investment vehicles such as ETFs. This gold is in addition to SGE withdrawals.
Household savings are a significant source of future gold demand. According to the PBOC, they amounted to $19.13 trillion equivalent in 2023, and according to CEIC Data they were an additional $2.5 trillion in 2024. In the past, these savings were directed mainly into property, which is now a no-go area.
Instead of disappearing into property, savings are now accumulating in bank accounts, hence the large 2024 number. But the PBOC has been reducing interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic activity, and possibly to weaken the yuan in response to U.S. tariff policies. This makes bank savings accounts less appealing, while making the prospects for a gold account more attractive.
The canary in this gold mine measuring the state of savers’ sentiment is Chinese demand for ETFs, which from last year began to reflect growing retail bullishness. This is illustrated in the chart below, coinciding with increasing demand for global gold ETFs. Figures are to the end of March:
Admittedly, this rapid expansion is from a low base. But it indicates that until last year Chinese savers generally ignored gold as an alternative to bank deposits.
It is not difficult to see why sentiment has now changed. The yuan is weak even against a bankrupt dollar. And now the PBOC is moving to weaken it further. Priced in yuan, gold is the only performing asset for Chinese households — up 25.6% in yuan so far this year.
If Chinese households invest as little as 10% of their annual savings in gold, that equates to 2,500 tonnes at current prices. It is highly likely that in the absence of competing investment media the impact of this relatively new source of demand for gold will drive prices considerably higher without any value input from a declining dollar.
The PBOC will be very much aware of these dynamics and the potential to destabilise Western capital markets. In other words, they could bring about the very conditions against which China’s gold policy was originally based.
Preparing for a gold standard
Separately from evolving domestic demand, China is formulating an external strategy to replace the dollar for its own trade. Following President Trump’s “liberation day” when he proposed highly discriminatory tariffs against China and most of the ASEAN trade group, President Xi visited several of these nations to talk trade.
Separately, in a joint statement headed by the PBOC and SAFE (China’s sovereign wealth fund) soon after Xi’s visits it was announced that the SGE would establish “gold storage facilities in other countries” — “part of a broader effort to promote the yuan and reduce reliance on the US dollar and US financial systems.”
In the context of foreign trade, a direct link between gold and the offshore yuan is now emerging. This comment is from the South China Morning Post:
“China will allow certain products traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange to be delivered overseas by establishing storage facilities in other countries – part of a broader effort to promote the yuan and reduce reliance on the US dollar and US financial systems, according to top regulatory agencies.”
This is a major shift from China’s current policy of not allowing any gold to leave China. No mention was made of which countries will host SGE vaults. But following on the heels of Xi’s visits to ASEAN nations, some of them are likely to be odds-on favourites.
The SCMP article goes on to mention an action plan to support outbound investment and the Belt and Road Initiative “to strengthen economic ties with its partners”. This is probably code for plans to protect the yuan from a dollar collapse and provide the yuan as an alternative trade settlement currency. In that case, it would appear that some sort of link between gold and the offshore yuan will evolve, perhaps before being fixed at a desired rate.
It will take some months for the SGE to set up vaulting services outside mainland China. Meanwhile, global and Chinese investors who yet have very little invested in one of the greatest bull market opportunities at a time of debt/credit bubbles imploding are likely to drive gold considerably higher against all fiat currencies, including the offshore yuan.
END
The Gold Rush You Weren’t Supposed To Notice & The Next Big Monetary Reset
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 11:05 AM
Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
Last year, central banks purchased approximately 34 million ounces of gold, marking the third consecutive year of near-record buying.
We’re witnessing the acceleration of a long-term trend that began around the 2008 financial crisis, when central banks shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold. That trend has exploded in recent years, with gold purchases surging to record-breaking levels, as shown in the chart below.
All signs indicate that 2025 will be another massive year for central bank gold buying.
Central banks and governments are the largest single holders of gold in the world. Together, they officially own over 1.2 billion troy ounces—out of the 6.9 billion ounces humans have mined throughout history.
However, these are just the official numbers that governments report. The actual gold holdings could be much higher, as governments tend to be secretive about their reserves, treating gold as a strategic financial asset.
Russia and China—the US’s top geopolitical rivals—have been the biggest gold buyers over the last two decades.
It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.
China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Russia is number two. Most of that gold enters the Chinese and Russian government’s vaults.
The trend of central bank gold accumulation is gaining momentum. If the rest of the world is moving back toward gold, the US will not want to be left behind.
Yet, officially, the US has not added a single ounce to its 261 million ounces of gold reserves in decades.
Unofficially? That may be a different story.
Since Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election last November, a sudden flood of physical gold has flowed into the US from major gold hubs like London, Switzerland, and elsewhere.
The gold market is typically dominated by paper trading, with large-scale physical deliveries being rare. However, CNBC and the World Gold Council report that more than 19 million ounces—possibly much more—of physical gold has entered the US since November.
That’s roughly 13% of the total alleged gold holdings in Fort Knox flowing into the US in less than six months.
This is not normal market action.
This strongly suggests that a non-market entity—most likely the US government—is behind this massive gold movement.
That’s why Trump’s recent comments about Fort Knox are so interesting.
Trump recently brought Fort Knox into the national conversation, something no US president has done in decades.
Would he have even mentioned the possibility of auditing Fort Knox if the vaults were empty? I doubt it.
Instead, there’s a good chance that the enormous inflow of physical gold into the US is happening in anticipation of an audit.
Connecting the Dots—Something Big Is Coming
So, here’s what we know:
- Trump has put Fort Knox’s gold holdings back in the national spotlight for the first time in decades.
- Central bank gold purchases are accelerating at record-breaking levels.
- An unusually large influx of physical gold is flowing into the US, far beyond regular market activity.
Follow the Gold. It Always Leads to the Truth
Central banks are hoarding gold at record levels. The US government is likely pulling in millions of ounces. And Trump is talking about Fort Knox.
This isn’t coincidence.
Find out what they’re preparing for and how you can be ready in our urgent dispatch:
The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now
3. C Powell and Gata dispatches
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 220
END
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//RARE EARTHS
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.62 PTS OR .23%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 111.30 PTS OR 0.51%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 205.38 PTS OR .57% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.64%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2659 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2683/ Oil UP TO 61.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.50 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING
STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
END
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2659 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2683 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 7.62 PTS OR 0.23%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 111.30 PTS OR 0.51%
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.14// EURO FALLS TO 1.1375 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.317//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.92…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4245/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.578 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.133%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.304
3j Gold at $3274.10 Silver at: 32.22 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 73 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.26
3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.59// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.325% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8246 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9382 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.152 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.620 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.674 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.48
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4940 DOWN 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.141 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.751 DOWN 2 PTS
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop Ahead Of Macro Data, Earnings Delug
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 08:17 AM
US equity futures slipped ahead of key GDP and PCE data. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 0.5%, with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.4%, TSLA -1.1% and META -0.6%) as weak earnings weighed on risk sentiment after Super Micro plunged 16% ahead of Microsoft and Meta numbers later on Wednesday. Bond yields are lower by 1bps to 4.15% while the USD is higher. Overnight, China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023 (49 vs 49.7 cons) due to the negative impact of higher US tariffs, while Trump at a rally in Michigan renewed his criticism of Powell, noting he is “not really doing a good job” and that he knows more about interest rates. This morning, Euro Area flash CPI has been mixed, while Q1 GDP data was slightly firmer than expected at 1.2% YoY (vs 1.1% cons). Commodities are mixed: oil is 1.8% lower; previous metals are lower, while base metals are mostly higher. After yesterday’s close, earnings were modestly negative. Particularly, SBUX fell 6.7% on missed earnings amid margin pressure and top-line growth. BKNG commented that there is a moderation in inbound travel into the US, but so far the global leisure travel demand has been stable. Looking ahead today, we have ADP employment, Q1 GDP, PCE and employment cost index. There are no Fed speakers scheduled given blackout ahead of May’s FOMC meeting.
In premarket trading the Mag7 stocks were mostly lower (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.9%, Microsoft +0.1%, Nvidia -2%, Tesla -1.3%). First Solar tumbled 12% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules cut earnings guidance for this year due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped 7% after warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken. Snap plunged 13% after the company declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it is navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Starbucks slumped 8% after weaker-than-expected results in the latest quarter amped up pressure for the company’s new management to deliver. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) rallies 9% after the drugmaker reported sales of its recently approved heart drug, Attruby, that crushed expectations.
- Etsy (ETSY) rises 1% after the online marketplace for crafts reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) climbs 9% after the software-as-a-service company boosted its profit and revenue outlook for the year.
- Garmin (GRMN) falls 6% after the maker of GPS-enabled products posted first-quarter results and provided a year forecast.
- Oddity Tech (ODD) jumps 17% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company boosted its net revenue guidance for the full year to a level above Wall Street expectations.
- Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 8% after the Apple supplier reported adjusted 4Q earnings that topped estimates.
- Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) shares are halted after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Novartis AG.
- Seagate (STX) gains 7% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
- Stride Inc. (LRN) climbs 3% after the online education company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 18%.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 16% after giving preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
- Tenable (TENB) plunges 17% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year guidance, with analysts noting lower visibility ahead for the stock due to US federal spending uncertainties.
- Wabash National (WNC) falls 13% after the semi-trailer manufacturing company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.
Investors have been cautiously optimistic, with the Nasdaq 100 close to erasing all of its losses this month, after tariff U-turns and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.
“Perhaps we are past peak uncertainty,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The administration has a more conciliatory tone on tariffs and to an extent as well, Fed independence.” Benchmark 10-year Treasuries steadied after six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold dropped.
Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are reporting earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.
“Even if you take out the tariff story outcome I think there is an issue for Big Tech and the market will probably start to refocus on that when we get this earnings season,” Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV. “We still have the issue of the massive amount of capex being spent on Big Tech, they’re overspending on this AI story.”
Economic barometers of US economic health are also due with inflation and GDP data Wednesday that will give a snapshot of activity just before President Donald Trump unleashed country-specific levies on April 2. US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter amid disruptions from policy shifts, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.
In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the US president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US. The news supported sentiment toward European auto stocks Wednesday, with Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Stellantis NV rising even after withdrawing their outlooks for this year, citing the uncertainty of trade barriers.
In a rally celebrating his first 100 days in office, Trump defended his tariff policies as he marked his 100th day in office. He also renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he is “not really doing a good job.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises for a seventh consecutive session, albeit only slightly, as disappointing earnings keep a lid on gains. Travel & leisure stocks are the worst performers. Energy and bank stocks also underperform with notable declines in TotalEnergies and Credit Agricole after their respective updates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:
- Societe Generale shares advanced 5.7% after the French lender beat estimates as equities trading hit a record and it booked a gain on disposals.
- DSV shares rise as much as 11% after the Danish logistics firm gave a reassuring set of results, with analysts highlighting the synergies it set out from its DB Schenker deal.
- Schindler shares gain as much as 8.2% after the Swiss elevator and escalator maker reported impressive 1Q results with a dynamic order intake and no change in guidance despite US tariffs.
- Stellantis shares rise as much as 4.2% in Milan after the carmaker released a trading update which Bernstein said included some positives, with pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions.
- VW shares rise as much as 1.4% after the German carmaker reiterated its full-year guidance, a move JPMorgan called a positive signal.
- Deutsche Post shares rise as much as 4.1% after the delivery firm’s Ebit came in higher than expected in the first quarter, driven by its Express and Post & Parcel divisions and aided by cost-cutting.
- Aixtron shares climb as much as 14% after the German chip-tool company’s first-quarter results showed better-than-expected revenue, order levels and positive free cash flow, according to Warburg.
- Remy shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts highlighted encouraging signs in the Cognac maker’s earnings, including an improvement in its US market as well as a better outlook for 2026.
- UMG climbs as much as 7.1% as subscription growth helps to deliver first-quarter results above expectations.
- Befesa shares rise as much as 13% after the German recycling company’s full-year earnings guidance surprised to the upside.
- AMS-Osram shares soar 17%, with ZKB analysts saying the Swiss chipmaker reported a good start to the year due to strong performance in its semiconductor business.
- Credit Agricole fell as much as 4.5% as higher-than-expected costs and a tax bill weighed on profit.
- TotalEnergies shares fall as much as 4.3% after the French energy company reported results that were in line with expectations, but also an increase in net debt.
- Mercedes shares drop as much as 2.8% after the carmaker said tariff volatility is too high to give a reliable outlook.
- Evolution shares drop as much as 18%. The gambling operator reported a miss on revenue and Ebitda in the first quarter, which management attributes to actions including ring-fencing regulated markets in Europe and countermeasures to cyberattacks in Asia.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a fourth-straight day of gains, as investors were encouraged by a continued rally on Wall Street and optimism over potential trade deals with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%. Sony was among the biggest boosts after Bloomberg reported it is considering spinning off its semiconductor unit, while AIA climbed on strong quarterly results. The regional benchmark is poised to close April more than 2% higher, wiping out a steep intra-month loss sparked by US tariffs. The market has been looking toward various concessions from Washington as well as individual nations’ negotiations with the US. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, while news emerged of discussions with South Korea and Australia. China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing early signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Shares of Chinese banks were among the biggest drags on equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China after weak earnings.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar outperforms rising 0.2% against the greenback after core inflation rose more than expected. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6418 before paring the move; the nation’s core inflation in the first quarter beat estimates, damping expectations of rapid rate cuts. The pound and the yen were among the worst performers, down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar respectively.
In rates, treasuries mixed with the long-end outperforming where yields are down around 2bp on the day, supported by wider gains seen across the long-end of Germany and UK bonds after a flurry of European economic data. Ahead of today’s quarterly refunding announcement, the 10-year US yield are down 1bps to 4.16%. US yields slightly cheaper across the front-end while richer in the long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.5bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade down to around 4.16%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds gain with little reaction shown to a flurry of economic data releases, including a beat for euro-area first quarter GDP. European government bonds rose; German yields were up to 4bps lower across the curve, with gilts mirroring that move; UK 10-year yield down 4bps to 4.40%
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $59.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $36 to around $3,280/oz. Bitcoin is steady near $94,800.
US economic calendar includes April ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q advanced GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), March personal income/spending, PCE price index, pending home sales (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
- Russell 2000 mini little changed
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
- VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.44
- euro -0.1% at $1.1371
- WTI crude -1.3% at $59.63/barrel
Top Overnight News
- US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we’re restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare. Trump renewed his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair’s “not really doing a good job.” He also championed his tariff regime at a rally that came just hours after he signed a pair of executive orders pulling back some of his auto levies.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan in an attempt to calm tensions. BBG
- Trump continues to float fresh tax cut proposals while Republicans struggle to agree on ways to lower the cost of the reconciliation bill. Axios
- Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
- China’s factory PMI slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage of US tariffs. Beijing has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs. BBG
- Chinese sovereign investor CIC is selling about $1 billion of its private equity investment portfolio in the secondary market. The assets are held in a number of funds managed by eight U.S. fund managers, including Blackstone Inc and Carlyle Group. RTRS
- Huawei has started the delivery of its advanced AI chip “cluster” to Chinese clients who are increasing orders after being cut off from Nvidia’s semiconductors because of Washington’s export restrictions. FT
- Japan eco data falls short for Mar, including retail sales (-1.2% M/M vs. the Street -0.7%) and industrial production (-1.1% M/M vs. the Street -0.4%). BBG
- The euro-area economy grew 0.4% last quarter, more than expected, though is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs. The German and French economies returned to growth. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk
APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump’s speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May. Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump’s latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China’s Big 4 banks.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
- China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn’t see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform. rnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.
Top European News
- Germany’s SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD’s Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.
FX
- DXY is currently building on Tuesday’s gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday’s peak at 99.83.
- EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn’t capture the impact of Trump’s tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
- USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday’s high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
- GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
- AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).
Fixed Income
- A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
- Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
- Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
- UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
- Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.
Commodities
- Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday’s slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
- Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday’s USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
- Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
- Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
- Chile’s Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu’s instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)”, via Sky News Arabia.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
- UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.
Geopoltiics: Ukraine
- Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass “We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine”.
- US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
- White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.
Geopolitics: Other
- Pakistan’s Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning “military aggression” against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
- North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea’s combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: Apr 25 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.2%, prior -12.7%
- 8:15 am: Apr ADP Employment Change, est. 115k, prior 155k
- 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.15%, prior 2.4%
- 8:30 am: 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.16%, prior 4%
- 8:30 am: 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.1%, prior 2.3%
- 8:30 am: 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.1%, prior 2.6%
- 8:30 am: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
- 9:45 am: Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.9, prior 47.6
- 10:00 am: Mar Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
- 10:00 am: Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
- 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
- 10:00 am: Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%
- 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
- 10:00 am: Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
- 10:00 am: Mar Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1%, prior 2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to the end of 100 days of Trump 2.0 with markets currently in a period of rare calm over this period. Indeed yesterday the S&P 500 (+0.58%) advanced for a 6th consecutive session and marking its best 6-day run (+7.81%) since March 2022. Interestingly, the latest gain means the index is now out of technical correction territory again, and now “only” stands -9.49% beneath its record high in mid-February and -1.94% below pre Liberation Day levels. This comes ahead of Microsoft and Meta’s earnings after the bell tonight and Amazon and Apple tomorrow. So these will go a long way towards dictating the sentiment of markets given we’re out of the most intense gravitation pull of Liberation Day now. It feels that in the last month or so AI has hardly been discussed as an investment theme after 2 years where it was the only game in town.
The main trigger for yesterday’s risk-on mood were headlines that Trump would announce some auto tariff relief ahead of tariffs on auto parts coming into force next weekend. The measures, signed later in day, prevent tariffs on autos and on steel and aluminium from stacking up on top of each other and provides partial rebates for domestic car makers on imported auto parts for the first two years. The President framed the move as giving companies “a little flexibility” at a rally yesterday evening, at which Trump also renewed his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, saying he’s “not really doing a good job”.
Those tariff headlines supported markets in spite of a weak batch of economic data. That included the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence indicator, which fell to 86.0 in April (vs. 88.0 expected). Not only is that the weakest since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic, but the expectations component saw an even bigger slump to 54.4, marking its lowest since October 2011 when the post-GFC recovery was stalling and the Euro Crisis was escalating. In the meantime, the latest JOLTS report also showed job openings fell to a 6-month low in March of 7.192m (vs. 7.5m expected). Obviously that’s covering a period before Liberation Day, so markets weren’t too focused on that, but it still meant that the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.02, which is its lowest so far this cycle.
The read across for risk assets was probably limited by the fact that the Conference Board reading is still a survey and while the surveys have been consistently negative of late, hard data have been mostly holding up. So it didn’t lead to a major re-assessment about the growth outlook in the way that a negative jobs report might have done. On top of that, the details of the JOLTS report did include some more positive elements, as the quits rate of those voluntarily quitting their job hit an 8-month high of 2.1%. It also didn’t show an escalation in layoffs, as the layoffs and discharges rate fell back to a 9-month low of 1.0%. So it meant investors could still plausibly believe the narrative that a recession would be avoided, even if sentiment had taken a big hit.
However, the more negative data immediately led investors to price in more Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by December moved up to 97bps, which is the highest since April 8, just before Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension. In turn, that led Treasury yields to fall across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-4.4bps) falling to 3.65%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.6bps) fell to 4.17%.
Looking forward, we’ll get a key piece of data today with the Q1 GDP release. Obviously that’s backward-looking and covers the period before Liberation Day, but it will give a strong indication of the extent to which people might have tried to import goods to get ahead of the tariffs. Indeed, yesterday we found that the goods trade deficit hit a record $162bn in March (vs. $145bn expected). So that led to a decent hit in GDP trackers, given that imports subtract from GDP growth. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 is now at an annualised contraction of -2.7%, and their alternative model that adjusts for imports and exports of gold is still at a contractionary -1.5%. And our own US economists have updated their expectation to a real GDP to contraction of -0.9% in Q1 due to the surge in imports (see their note here). If today’s number does show a decline, that would be the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2022.
For now at least, equities continued their rally, with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) moving up to its highest level since Liberation Day, led by financials (+0.97%) and materials (+0.93%). Energy stocks (-0.37%) underperformed as Brent crude oil fell -2.44% to $64.25/bbl. Over in Europe, there was also a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) posting a 6th consecutive gain as well, whilst the DAX (+0.69%) outperformed. The DAX has now entirely erased its losses since Liberation Day, leaving the index +0.16% above its level on April 2 and +12.64% YTD as opposed to -5.45% for the S&P 500. Meanwhile in the UK, the FTSE 100 (+0.55%) posted a 12th consecutive gain, which made it the longest run of gains since 2017.
Overnight S&P 500 (-0.47%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.64%) futures have fallen, not helped by a -17% after hours drop in Super Micro Computers after posting disappointing results. This is a company that was a darling of the AI world and peaked out at around 118 early in 2024 and will likely open in the low 30s today. The rest of Asia is largely consolidating with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.24%), Nikkei (+0.17%) and Hang Seng (+0.22) seeing small gains but with mainland Chinese stocks broadly flat. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.60%) is lagging behind its regional peers.
Coming back to China, the official manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.0 in April this morning, falling short of the expected 49.7 and significantly lower than the previous month’s 50.5. This contraction is clearly being attributed to the escalating trade war with the US. The non-manufacturing PMI also disappointed, dropping to 50.4 in April, below the anticipated 50.6 and down from 50.8 in March. Consequently, China’s composite PMI decreased to 50.2 in April from 51.4 in March, barely remaining above the 50 expansion threshold.
Elsewhere, Australia’s Q1 inflation edged up to +2.4% year-over-year (expected +2.3%), holding at a four-year low. The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation rate fell from a revised +3.3% to +2.9% in March (expected +2.8%). The data is likely to reinforce the central bank’s cautious stance and dampen expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in the near term. Against this background, the Australian dollar is holding on to its gains, strengthening +0.27% to trade at 0.6401 against the dollar. Meanwhile, yields on the 3yr policy sensitive government bonds are -0.7bps lower settling at 3.31% as we go to print.
Turning to back Germany, today is an important one in the process to forming a new government, as the vote of the SPD membership on the coalition treaty concludes. In light of this, our economists have put out a fresh note going through that vote (link here), as well as the fiscal timelines for the 2025 budget. Their view is that there is little event risk from the SPD vote, and that they don’t expect any additional fiscal support measures (beyond the coalition treaty) unless there are tangible signs of the trade shock materialising.
Finally in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a decent performance across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-2.1bps) all falling back. That came as the European Commission’s latest economic sentiment indicator fell by more than expected in April, down to a 4-month low of 93.6 (vs. 94.5 expected). Separately, the ECB’s survey of consumer inflation expectations showed 1yr expectations up to +2.9%, the highest since April.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include PCE inflation for March, Q1 GDP, the Q1 Employment Cost Index, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for April. Meanwhile in Europe, we’ll get the flash CPI reading for April from Germany, France and Italy, along with German unemployment for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller, Villeroy and Makhlouf. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Microsoft, Meta and Caterpillar.
2b European opening report
Stocks & USTs trade tentatively ahead of a busy data slate and earnings from MSFT & META – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 06:17 AM
- US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.
- Stocks trade tentatively ahead of a slew of key risk events, including US GDP/PCE and earnings from Microsoft & Meta.
- USD looks to build on Tuesday’s advances, EUR overlooks strong GDP, AUD is supported by hot CPI.
- USTs are contained into data & refunding, EGBs firmer but largely unaffected by a data deluge.
- Subdued trade across industrial commodities amid uncertainty and overall downbeat Chinese PMIs.
- Looking ahead, US ADP, GDP, PCE (Q1 & for March), ECI, BoC Minutes, Comments from BoE’s Lombardelli, US Quarterly Refunding.
- Earnings from, Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Albemarle, eBay, Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, GE Healthcare, Hess.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Politico writes that trade documents submitted by some countries are “far from final offers”, according to a dozen foreign diplomats and three officials Some trading partners are “balking” at proposing even an outline of their terms before they get more guidance from the US. The administration appears to have drawn one red line: it will not lower the 10% universal tariff imposed on April 5th.
- US President Trump signed a Proclamation on “AMENDMENTS TO ADJUSTING IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND AUTOMOBILE PARTS INTO THE UNITED STATES” and an Executive Order on “ADDRESSING CERTAIN TARIFFS ON IMPORTED ARTICLES”.
- US President Trump says they are coming from all over the world, including China, looking to make a deal and he confirmed to ease the impact of auto tariffs, while Trump added they are going to make a fair deal with China on trade, as well as commented that China deserves the tariffs and predicts that China will eat the tariffs.
- US President Trump congratulated Canadian PM Carney on the election win and said the leaders agreed to meet in person in the near future, while Carney said they agreed on the importance of Canada and the US working together, as independent, sovereign nations, for their mutual benefit.
- White House Economic Adviser Miran said we will hopefully start hearing about deals that are done in the coming days to weeks and expects they will move towards a form of de-escalation which will come sometime in the near future, while he added other countries will bear the burden “in the fullness of time.
- South Korean industry officials are to visit Washington on Wednesday for tariff discussions with US counterparts, while South Korean Finance Minister Choi said they not rushing to negotiate on tariffs with the US and they are “absolutely not” trying to conclude tariff talks with the US before the presidential election.
- US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases, the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three, via the Guardian citing sources. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
- French Finance Minister Lombard says he discussed idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Bessent told him that “this was not unrealistic”.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and Telecoms takes the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform.
- US equity futures are trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark ahead of a very busy day, packed with key US data points, including US GDP, PCE, Employment Costs and ADP National Employment.
- Earnings include: Mercedes Benz (-0.8%) down Y/Y, high uncertainty noted; Volkswagen (U/C) miss, expects results at lower-end of guidance; UBS (+0.2%) beat; Stellantis (+1.5%) in-line, suspends guidance; Barclays (-0.3%) beat, upgrades NII guidance; GSK (+4%) beat; TotalEnergies (-3.2%) mixed, continue buybacks, confident in growth objective; ASM International (U/C) orders & margin beat; Air France (+1.6%) beat, confirms outlook; Iberdrola (-1.3%) mixed, expect strong performance ahead.
- Microsoft (MSFT) President says the company is to increase data centre capacity by 40% over the next two years in Europe; expanding datacentre operations in 16 European countries.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is currently building on Tuesday’s gains in quiet trade. The two main drivers for price action were relief on the tariff front (autos) and soft US data (JOLTS and Consumer Confidence). Data will likely provide some impetus for the Greenback today with Q1 GDP/PCE and monthly PCE due on the docket. Q1 GDP may be seen as stale in some quarters given its precedes the announcement of US tariffs. DXY has ventured as high as 99.43 with Monday’s peak at 99.83.
- EUR softer vs. the USD in what has been a busy morning of data which kicked off with steady French GDP, hot French inflation and in-line German GDP which saw the nation avoid a technical recession, but ultimately showed a Y/Y contraction. Thereafter, Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2%) but failed to have any sway on the EUR given that it doesn’t capture the impact of Trump’s tariffs (aside from some potential front-loading of orders).
- USD/JPY is higher after Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed overnight, prompting concerns over a negative outturn for Q1 GDP. Attention now turns to the BoJ, where the Bank is expected to keep rates steady. USD/JPY is north of Tuesday’s high at 142.75 but is yet to approach the 143 mark.
- GBP is slightly softer vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers on the light side. Tier 2 data via the Lloyds Business Barometer and Nationwide House Index had little sway on GBP. On the trade front, the Guardian reports that US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases; the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging.
- AUD is the marginal outperformer across the majors on account of firm inflation metrics overnight (Q/Q 0.9% vs. exp. 0.8%, Y/Y 2.4% vs. exp. 2.3%).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- A relatively contained start to the session with USTs holding onto Tuesday’s spoils, firmer by a handful of ticks in a 112-03 to 112-09 band. Limited resistance in the near-term, nothing of particular note until 114-03+ from early April and thereafter 114-10. On the data front, the docket begins with ADP as a preview into Friday’s NFP. Thereafter, Q1 GDP, PCE and Employment Costs due. Afterwards, we get the monthly PCE figure.
- Bunds began the morning holding at the top-end of Tuesday’s 131.16-46 parameters, in-fitting with USTs. Then, after the European cash equity open, EGBs began to gradually pick up and despite being knocked briefly by marginally hotter German state CPI metrics than mainland consensus implies, Bunds are at a fresh 131.74 peak. EZ GDP metrics came in above expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the complex given the survey period does not include the implementation of Trump tariffs. German 2041 & 2044 outings were mixed, but ultimately had little impact on the complex.
- Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by just over 10 ticks and then in-fitting with EGBs after the cash equity open began to extend higher and hit a 93.68 high for the session. Strength occurs despite a lack of fresh drivers in today’s session thus far aside from supply, an auction that came in strong with another b/c well clear of the 3x mark and a slim tail. Results sparked a modest bid in Gilts but one that occurred within existing 93.35-68 confines.
- UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.48x (prev. 3.27x), average yield 3.834% (prev. 4.263%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.4bps).
- Germany sells EUR 1.143bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.452bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 2.50% 2044 Bunds.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude is softer for the third session in a row following yesterday’s slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl. Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report on Tuesday only adds to the downbeat mood. Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.
- Precious metals are lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday’s USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.
- Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.
- Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO says European gas storage is low, expect a tight market during refilling. Europe will need 200-300 extra LNG cargoes to refill storage this year.
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
- Chile’s Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q1) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); GDP Flash Prelim YY (Q1) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%)
- German State CPIs: State CPIs came in on the hotter side M/M and also haven’t moderated quite as much as expected/implied Y/Y.
- German GDP Flash QQ SA (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); Flash YY SA (Q1) -0.20%% vs. Exp. -0.20% (Prev. -0.20%)
- German Retail Sales YY Real (Mar) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 4.9%); MM (Mar) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%)
- German Import Prices YY (Mar) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 3.6%); MM -1.0% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 0.3%)
- German Unemployment Change SA (Apr) 4.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 26.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Apr) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%); Unemployment Total SA (Apr) 2.922M (Prev. 2.922M); Unemployment Total NSA (Apr) 2.932M (Prev. 2.967M)
- French CPI Prelim MM NSA (Apr) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.40% (Prev. 0.20%); YY NSA 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.60% (Prev. 0.80%)
- French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM (Apr) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.40% (Prev. 0.20%); YY 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Italian Consumer Price Prelim YY (Apr) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.9%); Core 2.1% (prev. 1.7%)
- Swiss KOF Indicator (Apr) 97.1 vs. Exp. 101.5 (Prev. 103.9, Rev. 103.2)
- Italian GDP Prelim YY (Q1) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%); GDP Prelim QQ (Q1) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Apr) 39 (Prev. 49)
- UK Nationwide House Price MM (Apr) -0.6% vs Exp. 0.0% (prev. 0.0%); YY (Apr) 3.4% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.9%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Germany’s SPD has approved the coalition deal with the CDU/CSU, via Reuters citing sources. SPD’s Klingbeil will be the Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister of the new German Government, according to German media.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we’re restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare, as well as stated the person at the Fed is not doing a good job.
- US President Trump is to hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday at 11:00EDT/16:00BST.
- Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
- EU set to admit that untangling from the dominance of US tech companies is “unrealistic”, via Politico “A draft strategy seen by POLITICO ahead of its release this spring signals the EU has few fresh ideas to restore Europe as a serious player in global tech — even as responding to the new transatlantic reality becomes a top priority in Brussels.”
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- “Israeli government statement: On Netanyahu’s instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria)”, via Sky News Arabia.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi says US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks; E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.
- UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Kremlin spokesperson says settlement should be reached with Ukraine, and not the US, via Tass “We are working very intensively with the US on Ukraine”.
- US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
- White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.
OTHER NEWS
- Pakistan’s Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning “military aggression” against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
- North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea’s combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower today and trading just shy of USD 95k; Ethereum now sits just shy of USD 1.8k.
- The SEC has dropped its investigation into PayPal’s (PYPL) stablecoin (PYUSD), according to Cointelegraph.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump’s speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May.
- Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump’s latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China’s Big 4 banks.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi says China is to adjust economic plans based on global change; to promote transformation of traditional industries; says they are to stabilize markets and expectations Urges to address weak links in economy. Urges to achieve goals in all aspects. Says to understand impact of changes in international situation. Says China to optimize economic planning based on situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment. Says to promote transformation of traditional industries. Says China to adjust economic plan based on global change. Says China needs to adapt to changing situations.
- China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn’t see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 50.5); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.8)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Apr) 50.2 (Prev. 51.4); Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 51.2)
- Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Mar P) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Mar) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 1.4%, Rev. 1.3%)
- Australian CPI QQ (Q1) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.2%); YY (Q1) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q1) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%); YY (Q1) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.2%)
- Australian Weighted CPI YY (Mar) 2.40% vs. Exp. 2.20% (Prev. 2.40%)
- Australian CPI Annual Trimmed Mean YY (Mar) 2.70% (Prev. 2.70%)
- New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Apr) 49.3% (Prev. 57.5%); Own Activity (Apr) 47.7% (Prev. 48.6%)
2c) Asian opening report
APAC stocks fail to sustain strong handover after weak Chinese PMIs, Mag7 earnings ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 01:35 AM
- US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.
- APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed; Chinese official PMIs disappointed.
- European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.
- DXY is a touch higher and building on yesterday’s slight gains, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle, AUD leads post-CPI.
- Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP, German Import Prices, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, GDP, CPI, Italian GDP, CPI, EZ GDP, US ADP, GDP, PCE (Q1 & for March), ECI, BoC Minutes, BoE’s Lombardelli, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
- Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Albemarle, eBay, Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, GE Healthcare, Hess, Airbus, Credit Agricole, TotalEnergies, SocGen, UBS, DHL, Kion, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Barclays, GSK, Segro & Glencore.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks edged higher for large parts of the US session and the major indices extended on their recent gains with both the S&P 500 and Dow notching a sixth consecutive win streak as tariffs remained in the spotlight with US President Trump to ease tariffs for US automakers at a speech in Michigan commemorating his first 100 days in office. There were also comments from other officials including US Commerce Secretary Lutnick who suggested a trade deal was reached with a country which he didn’t name until approval from the other side, although FBN’s Gasparino later suggested, citing word on Wall St, it could either be India or South Korea. Nonetheless, the gains in stocks were mild with upside limited as participants also digested data releases in which JOLTS printed below the bottom end of analyst estimates, while consumer confidence also disappointed and tumbled beneath expectations with responses detailing tariff concerns.
- SPX +0.58% at 5,561, NDX +0.61% at 19,545, DJI +0.75% at 40,528, RUT +0.56% at 1,977.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump signed a Proclamation on “AMENDMENTS TO ADJUSTING IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND AUTOMOBILE PARTS INTO THE UNITED STATES” and an Executive Order on “ADDRESSING CERTAIN TARIFFS ON IMPORTED ARTICLES”, which followed earlier reports that Trump is to sign three orders on auto manufacturing, according to Bloomberg citing an official.
- US President Trump says they are coming from all over the world, including China, looking to make a deal and he confirmed to ease the impact of auto tariffs, while Trump added they are going to make a fair deal with China on trade, as well as commented that China deserves the tariffs and predicts that China will eat the tariffs.
- US President Trump congratulated Canadian PM Carney on the election win and said the leaders agreed to meet in person in the near future, while Carney said they agreed on the importance of Canada and the US working together, as independent, sovereign nations, for their mutual benefit.
- US President Trump said India is coming along great and thinks they have a deal on tariffs, while he is not at all worried about the auto industry and will be talking to the PM of Australia about trade.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there was a plan for changes to auto tariffs and that factories in China are having to shut down, while he added they have seen substantial estimates of layoffs in China, according to an interview with FBN.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said adjustments to autos tariffs are aimed at allowing domestic automakers time to grow US plants and employment, while the Executive Order grew out of a positive detailed conversation with domestic car makers. Lutnick said manufacturers of US-built autos will get a 15% offset for the value of those vehicles against parts imports and all cars that are finished in the US that have 85% domestic content will have no tariffs. Furthermore, he said auto manufacturers will pick the highest tariff that comes with their goods and they will only pay one whereby they will either pay the steel or auto tariff, whichever is higher.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a 10% tariff is ‘virtually’ not going to change prices, while he noted one trade deal has been reached with a country he did not name and is waiting for approval from the other country before announcing.
- US Trade Representative Greer told GOP senators that countries are coming to the table on tariff talks but noted Europe is not engaging as well, according to PBS News.
- White House Economic Adviser Miran said we will hopefully start hearing about deals that are done in the coming days to weeks and expects they will move towards a form of de-escalation which will come sometime in the near future, while he added other countries will bear the burden “in the fullness of time.
- US official said 25% will stack on top of the Most-Favoured-Nation rate and offset amount will be applied at the April 3rd start date of tariffs, based on production thereafter, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump reportedly called Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos on Tuesday to complain about reports Amazon was considering displaying the cost of US tariffs next to prices for certain products on its website, while an Amazon spokesman released a statement clarifying the move wasn’t considered for the main Amazon site but was considered for Amazon Haul and later sent CNN a revised statement that “This was never approved and not going to happen”, according to CNN’s Alayna Treene.
- South Korean industry officials are to visit Washington on Wednesday for tariff discussions with US counterparts, while South Korean Finance Minister Choi said they not rushing to negotiate on tariffs with the US and they are “absolutely not” trying to conclude tariff talks with the US before the presidential election.
- US officials have split trade negotiations into three phases, the UK has reportedly been placed in either phase two or three, via the Guardian citing sources. UK officials are also concerned that any EU-UK deal could make negotiations with the US more challenging..
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he achieved the 100 most successful days for a president in US history, while he noted a lot of auto jobs and companies are coming in and we’re restoring the rule of law and ending the inflation nightmare, as well as stated the person at the Fed is not doing a good job.
- US President Trump is to hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday at 11:00EDT/16:00BST.
- US Senate is to vote on the President Trump tariff resolution on Wednesday although Trump has said he would veto the measure if it passes Congress.
- Top Trump advisor reportedly struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult in which Stephen Miran met with hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil, according to FT.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1 25): -2.7% (prev. -2.4% on 24th April); Gold adjusted -1.5% (prev. -0.4%).
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed at month-end as the region digested a slew of data including disappointing Chinese official PMIs, while there was a muted reaction and very few surprises from US President Trump’s speech to commemorate his first 100 days back in office.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech, healthcare and financials offset the losses in the utilities and commodity-related sectors but with the upside limited after firmer-than-expected CPI data saw money markets fully price out the chances of a larger 50bps RBA rate cut in May.
- Nikkei 225 was choppy with the upside contained following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while the BoJ also kick-started its two-day policy meeting and there were some comments from a group representing major foreign automakers which noted that President Trump’s latest tariff order for autos provides some relief but more must be done.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures and participants also reflected on key earnings releases including disappointing results from China’s Big 4 banks.
- US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.6%) pulled back as participants braced for a slew of key data releases and upcoming mega-cap earnings.
- European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY eked mild gains after the prior day’s rebound despite the recent disappointing data releases in which US Consumer Confidence deteriorated for a fifth consecutive month and job openings fell to a six-month low. Nonetheless, tariffs remained in focus as President Trump signed an order to prevent the stacking of tariffs for automakers and reiterated they are going to get a fair deal with China, while participants now look ahead to a slew of data releases including US ADP, GDP and PCE data.
- EUR/USD marginally weakened after failing to sustain the 1.1400 status with the single currency not helped by the deterioration of EZ sentiment in April, while there is also a busy calendar ahead for the bloc including the latest GDP figures for the EU and key member states such as Germany, France and Italy.
- GBP/USD slightly softened in rangebound trade after the recent choppy mood and oscillations around the 1.3400 level.
- USD/JPY lacked conviction after Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed and with participants awaiting a potentially hawkish hold from the BoJ when it concludes its 2-day policy meeting on Thursday.
- Antipodeans eked mild gains with AUD/USD supported by firmer-than-expected CPI data but with gains capped as Chinese official PMIs disappointed.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures took a breather after rallying across the curve yesterday as weak data stoked growth concerns, while supply and key data loom.
- Bund futures kept afloat but with the upside capped ahead of a slew of German data including GDP, CPI, Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales figures.
- 10yr JGB futures price action was choppy on return from the holiday closure and with a lack of conviction as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained pressured after retreating throughout the prior day with demand subdued by trade uncertainty and weak data, while the latest private sector inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build for headline crude stockpiles.
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln.
- Spot gold trickled lower following the prior day’s indecisive performance and with prices constrained by a mildly firmer buck.
- Copper futures declined amid headwinds from the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese official PMI data.
- Chile’s Codelco Chairman said April Copper production +22% Y/Y.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually climbed throughout the session and returned to above the USD 95,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China NPC standing committee passed the private sector promotion law which will take effect from May 20th.
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures and he doesn’t see anything in the data as substantially altering market expectations.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 50.5)
- Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.8)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Apr) 50.2 (Prev. 51.4)
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 51.2)
- Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Mar P) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Mar) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 1.4%, Rev. 1.3%)
- Australian CPI QQ (Q1) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Australian CPI YY (Q1) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q1) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Q1) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.2%)
- Australian Weighted CPI YY (Mar) 2.40% vs. Exp. 2.20% (Prev. 2.40%)
- Australian CPI Annual Trimmed Mean YY (Mar) 2.70% (Prev. 2.70%)
- New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Apr) 49.3% (Prev. 57.5%)
- New Zealand ANZ Own Activity (Apr) 47.7% (Prev. 48.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US Treasury targets networks in Iran and China for their role in procuring missile propellant ingredients for Iran.
- UK forces participated in a joint operation with US forces against a Houthi military target in Yemen, while the UK said the strike was conducted after dark when the likelihood of any civilians being in the area was reduced and all aircraft returned safely.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace but he was not happy when he saw Putin shooting missiles, according to ABC News.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said they are now at a time where concrete proposals need to be submitted by Russia and Ukraine, while he added that if there is no progress, the US will step back as mediators in this process.
- White House Press Secretary said President Trump is confident the Ukraine minerals deal will be signed.
OTHER NEWS
- Pakistan’s Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning “military aggression” against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.
- North Korea conducted the first test firing of a new warship, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korean intelligence assessed that North Korea’s combat capabilities have improved and that North Korea suffered 600 deaths during its dispatch of troops to Russia, while South Korean intelligence is monitoring a possible surprise summit between North Korea and the US.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Apr) 39 (Prev. 49)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
Chinese exports tumble on Trump tariffs
(zerohedge)
China Factory Activity Tumbles To 16 Month Low As Exports Crater On Trump Tariffs
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 12:29 PM
China’s manufacturing activity in April saw its worst contraction since December 2023, exposing sharp signs of weakness in Asia’s biggest economy from the trade war with the US, and boosting calls for fresh Chinese stimulus, which is always “just around the corner” but never arrives.
In the aftermath of significantly higher US tariffs, China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, much lower than consensus expectations, the lowest reading since May 2023. The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, fell to 50.4 from 50.8 also missed expectations driven by weakness in both construction and services sectors, but remained above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction.
Separately, the unofficial Caixin manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March.
The reading contrasts with Chinese officials’ conviction that the world’s second-largest economy is well placed to absorb the U.S. trade shock and confirms that domestic demand remains weak as factory owners struggle to find alternative buyers overseas.
Here are the details:
- The NBS manufacturing PMI headline index fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, the lowest reading since May 2023. Among major sub-indexes of NBS manufacturing PMI, the output sub-index fell to 49.8 from 52.6, the new orders sub-index declined to 49.2 from 51.8, and the employment sub-index fell to 47.9 from 48.2. The suppliers’ delivery times sub-index inched down to 50.2 in April from 50.3 in March. NBS commented that the output and new orders sub-indexes of textile and metal products were below 50 in April.
- On the trade-related sub-indexes, the manufacturing new export order sub-index decreased notably to 44.7 in April (vs. 49.0 in March), the lowest reading since December 2022. The import sub-index fell to 43.4 in April (vs. 47.5 in March). Inventory and price sub-indexes showed inventory drawdowns and deflationary pressures. The raw material inventories sub-index edged down to 47.0 from 47.2, and the finished goods inventories sub-index decreased to 47.3 from 48.0. The input cost sub-index decreased sharply to 47.0 (vs. 49.8 in March). The output prices sub-index also fell to 44.8 (vs. 47.9 in March). Larger manufacturers appeared to show a bigger activity deceleration. By enterprise size, the PMI of large/medium/small enterprises fell to 49.2/48.8/48.7 from 51.2/49.9/49.6 in April, respectively.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI, which was released shortly after the NBS print, fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March, amid a sharp fall in new export orders and overall factory activity slowing. Sub-indexes in the Caixin manufacturing PMI suggest a modest decline in the output sub-index in April (51.6 vs. 51.8 in March), a significant slowdown in new orders (50.5 vs. 52.1 in March), weaker employment (49.0 vs. 50.1 in March), and deflationary pressures in price indicators (input prices increased to 49.7 from 48.4 and output prices increased to 49.2 from 49.1). The new export orders sub-index fell sharply to 47.5 in April from 52.0, the lowest reading since July 2023, suggesting weaker external demand amid higher US tariffs. Surveyed companies noted that greater competition among vendors amid subdued demand for inputs led to a drop in input costs in April. Firms often shared cost savings with their customers, and lowered their selling prices accordingly.
- The official non-manufacturing PMI (comprised of the services and construction sectors) fell to 50.4 in April (vs. 50.8 in March). The services PMI decreased to 50.1 (vs. 50.3 in March). According to the survey, the PMIs of air transportation, telecommunications, radio, insurance, television and satellite transmission services sectors were above 55 while the PMIs of water transportation and capital market services were below 50 in April. The construction PMI fell in April to 51.9 (vs. 53.4 in March). NBS noted that the growth of the infrastructure-related construction PMI rose to 60.9 in April from 54.5 in March.
Manufacturers had been front-loading outbound shipments in anticipation of the duties, but the arrival of the levies has called time on that strategy, putting pressure on policymakers – who had for the past year merely promised to do something instead of actually doing something – to finally address rebalancing the economy.
“The sharp drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools,” Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said.
“Although the government is stepping up fiscal support, this is unlikely to fully offset the drag, and we expect the economy to expand just 3.5% this year.”
Huang added that negativity among the survey’s respondents “probably exaggerates the impact of the tariffs,” noting that “the new export orders index dropped back to its lowest level, COVID-19 disruptions aside, since April 2012.”
Trump’s decision to single Beijing out for import duties of 145% comes at a particularly difficult time for China, which is struggling with deflation due to sluggish income growth and a prolonged property crisis.
Beijing has largely relied on exports to shore up the fragile economic recovery since the end of the pandemic and only began to take steps to boost domestic demand more earnestly late last year.
Zhao Qinghe, an NBS statistician, said the drop was largely down to “sharp changes in (China’s) external environment,” in a note accompanying the release. China’s yuan inched lower against the dollar following the data’s release, as the first data since Trump’s tariff announcement pointed to early signs of damage to the economy.
While China has repeatedly denied it is seeking to negotiate with the U.S. a way out of the tariffs, and appears to instead be betting that Washington makes the first move, continued economic deterioration will force Beijing’s hand.
“We expect the manufacturing PMI to be in contraction in May, but it is expected to rise to about 49.5, driven by an increase in stable growth policies,” said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng.
He said further cuts to interest rates and the amount commercial banks must hold in reserve may be needed as conditions worsen. On Monday, the vice head of China’s state planner said the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) would roll out new policies over the second quarter in line with the prevailing economic conditions of the time.
That followed pledges by the Communist Party’s elite decision-making body, the Politburo, on Friday to support firms and workers most affected by the duties. The general consensus among China observers is a second trade war with the U.S. will significantly weigh on growth, but the NDRC’s Zhao Chenxin said he was confident the country would achieve its 2025 economic growth target of around 5%.
The International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs and UBS all recently revised down their economic growth forecasts for China over 2025 and into 2026, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs – none of them expect the economy to hit Beijing’s official growth target.
London’s Financial times:
China running out of copper!!
https://www.ft.com/content/72da3728-906c-4124-8700-841adbe61f18
China’s copper stockpiles are on track to dwindle to nothing in just a few months, as the market suffers “one of the greatest tightening shocks” in its history on fears of US tariffs, according to senior executives at commodities trading house Mercuria. Huge US demand, as buyers rush to get their hands on copper ahead of the potential imposition of levies by the Trump administration, was sucking imports of the metal into the country from the rest of the world and setting it up in direct competition with China for supplies, said the Geneva-based group. Chinese stocks of copper have rapidly declined over the past few weeks, and “at the current pace of draws, those Chinese inventories could deplete [to zero] by the middle of June”, Nicholas Snowdon, Mercuria’s head of metals and mining research, told the Financial Times. The country’s inventories fell by almost 55,000 tonnes to 116,800 tonnes last week, the biggest weekly drop on record, according to Shanghai Futures Exchange data. This “is potentially going to be one of the greatest tightening shocks this market’s ever seen”, Snowdon said. Beijing had a “razor thin inventory buffer” to meet domestic demand, he added. Kostas Bintas, the company’s head of metals and mining, said the US was for the “first time” competing with China for supplies of copper, which was likely to supercharge prices. The impact of US protectionism on the copper market adds to pressure from Chinese domestic demand and retaliatory levies that could hit vital flows of copper scrap. Metals buyers have been importing large amounts of copper into the US ahead of possible tariffs, which could result from an investigation initiated by US President Donald Trump into alleged “dumping and state sponsored overproduction” of the metal. He has already imposed a 25 per cent levy on aluminium and steel imports. Copper stocks in Comex warehouses in the US have climbed sharply this month to their highest level on Friday since 2018. Helping drive supplies to the US is a trading arbitrage created by investors’ fear of tariffs. This has pushed up the price of the metal on New York’s Comex exchange in comparison with prices on London’s London Metal Exchange. This so-called spread has created a lucrative arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to buy copper futures contracts in London and sell contracts in New York. The spread stood at nearly $1,200 per tonne on Monday, having risen above $1,600 in March, well above its long-term average. Some traders who had large commitments to sell copper on Comex have been urgently trying to get their hands on additional tonnes into the US to cover those short positions before any new tariffs were introduced, said Bintas. Retaliatory levies imposed by China on US imports could also hit the crucial copper scrap market, analysts said, adding to the tightness in the Chinese market. That could worsen if the US imposes a ban on the export of copper scrap, of which it is a big exporter. It shipped 960,000 tonnes in 2024, with almost half going to China, according to commodity pricing agency Fastmarkets. In January and February, the latest data available, the US exported 142,000 tonnes in total, compared with 149,000 during the same period last year. Andrew Cole, a metals analyst at Fastmarkets, said he expected “a significant plunge in scrap shipments from the US to China in March to May at the very least. “That’s what will lead to the escalation of supply squeeze in China we have been expecting to develop as the year progresses,” he said. Growing scrap stockpiles in the US could create an opportunity for a growing domestic market, analysts said. Copper group Aurubis is investing €740mn in a new recycling facility in Richmond, Georgia. The plant is expected be operational by the end of Aurubis’s fiscal year, and to source material mostly from the domestic US market. However, while Chinese stocks were being depleted, in reality markets would react before stocks reached zero, with higher prices attracting more imports of copper and scrap, said Snowdon. “That comes at the point of record pull of copper units into the US. As those two forces meet that creates an unprecedented competition for copper,” he said.
end
CHINA/COPPER
“Greatest Tightening Shock The Market Has Ever Seen”: Chinese Copper Stocks To Run Out In Weeks
Not too long ago, we reported that China was stockpiling virtually every form of commodity known to man, from corn to crude and corn… and especially copper: according to a JPMorgan report in early 2022, China held an estimated 84% of all global copper. Fast forward three years, when Geneva-based commodities trading giant Mercuria now predicts that China’s copper stockpiles are on track to dwindle to nothing in just a few months – if not weeks – as the market suffers “one of the greatest tightening shocks” in its history,…
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
Mercedes Cites “Tariffs & Volatility” In Yet Another Withdrawal Of Guidance For Automakers
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Some of Europe’s largest automakers have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year, citing mounting macroeconomic uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s trade war. While Trump signed an order Tuesday easing specific auto tariffs, Mercedes-Benz Group still withdrew its full-year outlook.
“The current volatility with regard to tariff policies, mitigation measures and resulting potential direct and indirect effects in particular on customer behaviour and demand is too high to reliably assess the business development for the remainder of the year,” Mercedes warned in an earnings press release for the first quarter.
Mercedes ships Europe-made vehicles via cargo ships to North America while also producing SUVs, luxury vehicles, EVs, and vans at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina plants.
At its Tuscaloosa plant, Mercedes manufactures SUVs such as the GLE, GLS, GLE Coupe, and the ultra-luxury Mercedes-Maybach GLS, as well as electric models like the EQE and EQS SUVs. In Charleston, the company produces both the Sprinter and e-Sprinter vans.
On Tuesday evening, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at easing the burden of auto-related tariffs. The order includes provisions to lower duties on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made parts, and prevents multiple tariffs from stacking on a single vehicle. However, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles entering the US remains in place.
Under the order, additional 25% tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3, but vehicles that go through final assembly in the US will qualify for partial reimbursements on those levies for two years.
At a rally in Michigan, Trump told the crowd his administration will “slaughter them [automakers] if they don’t” re-shore critical supply chains of parts to the US.
In addition to Mercedes, Stellantis NV, Volvo Car, and General Motors have all pulled their full-year forecasts because of tariffs.
Volkswagen has left its outlook unchanged for the year but warned it has yet to factor in the tariffs, while Aston Martin has announced plans to limit shipments of its luxury sports cars to the US.
Goldman analyst Jeremy Elster commented on the European auto industry…
AUTOS… trading flat on the day despite the guidance suspensions and cuts. Tariff relief is part of the explanation. Perhaps not directly, but because it hints at willingness to bend to industry pressuree on relief (more on tariff relief details from mark Delaney here). Going through the prints today:
- Mercedes miss & suspend guide. Saying guide would be in tact were it not for tariffs, which makes P911 material downgrades PRE tariff impacts yesterday look even worse in hindsight. The MBG 1Q is a bit better in the details; Cars margin 7.3% vs cons 6.9%, and yet another strong cash quarter (Ind FCF 2,405m vs consensus 1,790m, a 34% beat), albeit this is somewhat overshadowed by the specific cash comment on tariffs; “negative impacts on the cash conversion rates of the automotive segments cannot be ruled out either”. On the call, company saying fy impact of tariffs from here would be around -300bps to Cars margins (i.e. annualised impact would be higher)… implies material downgrades (as much as 400bps vs 7% margin guide starting point, pre mitigation).
- VW first take is worse of the two German prints. Difficult to marry the optimism we heard from the company through q1 with another margins miss at Brand Group Core, but perhaps tailwinds from stronger Europe production become more evident over q2/q3. Headline group ebit is a -7% miss, margins are a 20bps miss, cash flow is more or less in-line. Guide is moved to low end of the range, but does not include any impact from tariffs.
- STLAM 1Q is revenues only, but also a small miss (-1% vs consensus). Net price -3.4% looks a little worse than feared. Guidance is suspended. Inventories ticked up slightly vs Q4 to support better expected deliveries in Europe in Q2. We’ve started to field some more, very hesitant, constructive incoming on STLA given tariff relief in US (relative to German OEMs), but for the stock to turn the market will need more confidence on cash and market share stabilisation.
The trade war adds to the problems for European automakers, who face muted demand across Europe and rising competition from Chinese brands, including BYD.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Israel was founded on a promise, and that promise must be kept – editorial
How to get the remaining hostages out of Gaza is the issue that is tearing the country apart and threatening to dig a deep chasm in our society that we may never be able to bridge.
By JPOST EDITORIALAPRIL 30, 2025 05:5
The duality of Israel as a young, vibrant country that has struggled for its survival since its inception is never more fully on display than during the 48-hour period each year when Remembrance Day morphs into Independence Day.
According to the Defense Ministry, 25,420 soldiers have fallen in defense of their country. That weight has especially been felt over the last 18 months. Since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, over 900 soldiers have been killed, and over 5,600 soldiers have been wounded doing their duty for the country.
That’s a heavy price to pay for the right to live freely in our own country. And there doesn’t seem to be a respite. The last week has seen the first IDF casualties since Israel resumed its contentious battle against Hamas.
JPost Videos
Capt. Ido Voloch, 21, an officer in the 401st Armored Brigade’s 46th Battalion; Sgt. Neta Yitzhak Kahane, an officer in the Border Police undercover unit (Mista’aravim); and tank driver St.-Sgt.-Maj. (res) Asaf Cafri were all buried this week after being killed by Hamas terrorists in Gaza.
Why is the battle contentious? That’s the heart of the debate that Israel is entrenched in as its 77th birthday is marked Wednesday night and Thursday.
Like last year, the celebrations will be muted, as 24 living hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza – as well as 35 fallen hostages – have no independence. Twenty-five hostages were released earlier in the year through a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which fell apart in March.
How to get the remaining hostages out of Gaza is the issue that is tearing the country apart and threatening to dig a deep chasm in our society that we may never be able to bridge.
There are two valid plans: one theoretical and one in practice now. The theoretical one is to make the giant assumption that Hamas would stand by an agreement that it allegedly offered to release all of the hostages in exchange for a long-term five-year truce and keeping its arms and status as the address in Gaza.
It would conceivably bring the remaining hostages home but enable Hamas to rebuild, rearm, and return to its pre-October 7 major threat status to Israel.
The other plan, put in action by the government, is to continue fighting Hamas and pressure the terror group into accepting another ceasefire deal that would see the hostages released in stages, like earlier this year.
Netanyahu’s government dismisses opponents as leftists
The problem with both plans is that they sow distrust and anger from those who oppose them. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government dismisses any opponents of its policies as non-patriotic leftists.
And opponents of continuing the war in Gaza say that it’s only being done to keep the coalition in power and put off the ultimate reckoning of Netanyahu’s responsibility for October 7.
Does Israel, at age 77, have what it takes to be able to argue and vehemently oppose the other’s idea yet still be one country? We have, throughout our history – full of endless internal struggles and disunity.
But when it counted, when Israel’s existence was at risk, whether in 1948, 1967, 1973, or 2023, the differences were put aside. Can the same be said now, when half the country is calling for the current war to end, with the other half convinced that the hostages can be returned and Hamas defeated – wishful thinking at best?
Israel was founded on a promise: The government and its people will work together for the country’s security and well-being. As we mark Israel’s 77th year, that promise is no longer a foregone conclusion. It’s imperative that it be so once again if we are to stand together and celebrate at 78 and allow our progeny to celebrate at 178. The stakes are too high, and lives are hanging in the balance.
Last week, at the annual March of the Living program at the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp on Holocaust Remembrance Day, freed hostage Eli Sharabi, who suffered in the Hamas dungeons in Gaza for a year and a half, said:
“This is the Jewish spirit of triumph. It is a reminder that the Jewish nation will exist for all eternity.”
We owe it to him and all of the hostages still in Gaza to make sure his statement is never put in doubt.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Netanyahu’s Wife Caught On Mic Saying ‘Fewer’ Than 24 Hostages Alive In Gaza
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 05:45 AM
It appears that Israel has intelligence which strongly suggests the majority of 59 hostages remaining in Gaza are dead. It has long been acknowledged that at least some of the captives are deceased, but the Israeli government has kept a tight lid on information it has on the numbers.
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife Sara has unleashed new controversy, heightening tensions and outrage from victims’ families. She was heard on a hot mic at an event on Monday saying that “fewer” than 24 hostages are still alive in Gaza.
It’s unclear whether she intended to be heard by the audience at a moment her husband, PM Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking, but she muttered something key and it was picked up by the microphone.
Below is CNN’s account of what happened and what was said:
“We have of course an important task, not only to win but also to bring home (the hostages),” Netanyahu said at a meeting with Israeli holiday torchbearers on Monday. “Until today we have returned 196 of our hostages, 147 of whom were alive. There are… up to 24 living. Up to 24 living.”
“Fewer,” Sara Netanyahu interrupted quietly, seated to her husband’s right.
“I say up to,” Netanyahu quickly responded. “And the rest are, I’m sorry to say, not alive. And we will return them.”
Lately Israeli officials have issued alarm, saying they believe more hostages may be in danger of dying as the conflict drags on. Ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have been collapsed and nonexistent for months at this point.
Victims’ families and anti-Netanyahu protesters have demanded the resumption of the truce deal, in order to see the remaining captives released. The Netanyahu government has instead opted for a military solution.
“On the eve of Memorial Day, you sowed indescribable panic in the hearts of the families of the hostages – families already living in agonizing uncertainty,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement, blasting Israeli leadership.
“If there is intelligence or new information regarding the condition of our loved ones, we demand full disclosure,” the group said, and urged that if the prime minister’s wife has new information she should make it known immediately.
“If the wife of the prime minister has new information about the kidnapped who were killed, I demand from her to know if my Matan is still alive, or if he was murdered in captivity because your husband refuses to finish the war,” Einav Zangauker, the mother of one of the hostages, also said on social media, as quoted in CNN.
Israel’s military has vowed to eradicate Hamas, but that’s easier said than done given the vast tunnel network of the terror group remains in place. It’s also believed there are still tens of thousands of Hamas fighters.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS/WEST BANK
‘All you have to do is burn’: Hamas calls to set fires in Jerusalem, West Bank
“Youth of the West Bank, youth of Jerusalem, and those inside Israel, set their cars ablaze… Gaza awaits the revenge of the free,” the terrorist organization wrote.
By SHIR PERETS, OHAD MERLINAPRIL 30, 2025 16:55Updated: APRIL 30, 2025 18:4
Hamas posted a message encouraging Palestinians to “burn whatever you can of groves, forests, and settler homes,” on Telegram on Wednesday.
“Youth of the West Bank, youth of Jerusalem, and those inside Israel, set their cars ablaze… Gaza awaits the revenge of the free,” the terrorist organization wrote.
Earlier, the Jenin News Network Telegram channel called on Palestinians to “burn the groves near the settlements” in a post on Telegram on Wednesday.
As the wildfires continue to burn across central Israel, the channel posted a photo of a masked person setting fire to a field as a town burns in the background, with the text “Settlers’ homes will be ashes under the feet of the revolutionaries” and the hashtag “Burn settlers’ houses.”
The wildfires broke out in the Judean Hills on Wednesday morning and spread across the Jerusalem area as the day continued.
“O, youth of the West Bank,” called one inciting video. “Let us be the flame of freedom which will not die. Let us make their night – a burning day. Let us bring back to them the nightmares of the occupation, so they know that every day is a struggle for the resistance. Set fires of freedom everywhere. We will not give in and will not give up until we burn every piece of stolen land.”
On social media, the fires were also branded as “Flames of the Flood,” echoing Hamas’s name for the October 7th massacre, “Flood of Al-Aqsa”.
Palestinian news channel “Akhbar Filastin” tweeted on their X account (112,000 followers): “A call to the revolutionary youth and all the heroes of the West Bank.. Settlers’ homes and the surrounding areas are your target. Burn them with your Molotov cocktails and set fire to the grass near the settlement outposts.”
While the Telegram channel Jenin News (320,000 followers) wrote: “Calls from youth to burn forests close to the raped (lands)… The (Zionist) entity is Burning! This is an opportunity for you, to increase the fires, youth of Jerusalem and the occupied interior, raise your spirits and make up your mind, their settlements, set them ablaze.”
Notably, many Palestinian outlets refer to all Israelis as “settlers” and all cities and towns in the country as “settlements.”
Other posters shared on these channels included calls to “exploit the heat of the summer and set fire to the forests of the settlers. There will be not one settler left in our land.” while others wrote: “let’s burn their settlements and make them a living hell for them… Don’t underestimate what you have and what you can do.”
Earlier today, Channel 2 also reported arson attempts in the Jerusalem Hills.
Another poster promoted the slogan “Let the houses of the settlers become ash under the feet of the revolutionaries,” alongside the hashtag “Burn the Settlers’ Houses”
One channel posted a picture of the raging fires, adding: “For Gaza, which has never held back in its support for you: Go down there now and burn the forests and groves near the settlements!”
Another channel from the Jenin refugee camp uploaded posters showing the Israeli flag burning along with calls to “set fire to the forests of the occupation and its settlements… kudos to our youth, go and burn, go and burn”
Some channels even cursed at the Palestinian Authority for offering Israel to help with “the fires of the settlers near the settlements of Al-Quds,” also adding: “heroes of the West Bank and Jerusalem – this is your day. Exploit these fires and make them grow larger. Gasoline and a spark can make the entity a fiery hell. The settlements and their forests are your targets.”
Fire and Rescue Commissioner, Eyal Caspi, announced the authority’s alert level has been raised to the highest level.
An appeal has been made by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar for international assistance from neighboring countries Greece, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus and Bulgaria, though assistance is not currently expected to arrive before nightfall.
All Independence Day events cancelled
Independence Day performances and activities have been canceled across the country due to the fires, the government announced.
The meteorological service put out reports as early as yesterday that this was a possibility. The Israel Fire and Rescue Authority recently requested many cancellations because that they would not be able to secure certain locations in case a fires were to break out.
END
SYRIA/DRUZE/ISRAEL
Israel defends Syrian Druze with airstrike on extremist group near As-Suweida
“Israel will not allow harm to come to the Druze community in Syria,” the statement read.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 30, 2025 12:30Updated: APRIL 30, 2025 13:0
The IDF struck a gathering of an extremist group in Syria that was reportedly preparing to continue attacks against the Druze population in the town of As-Suweida in Syria’s Damascus Governorate on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced in a joint statement on Wednesday.
“Israel will not allow harm to come to the Druze community in Syria, out of a deep commitment to our Druze brothers in Israel, who are tied by family and historical bonds to their Druze brothers in Syria,” the statement read.
The statement also added that Israel intends to send a strong message to the new Syrian government that it is expected to prevent harm to the Druze community.
The strikes coincide with Remembrance Day in Israel, during which Israel commemorates the fallen. Katz and Netanyahu’s statement mentions “great contribution of the Druze community to Israel’s security and the Druze who gave their lives in defense of the State of Israel.”
In return, Israel sees “great importance in fulfilling our commitment to the Druze community in Israel and in protecting their brothers in Syria.”
Druze protests
Also on Wednesday, dozens of members of the Druze community protested at the Kafr Yasif junction in the Western Galilee, near Acre, in response to the sectarian clashes that took place over the past 24 hours in the city of Jaramana, near Damascus.
During the protest, tires were set on fire and major traffic routes, including access to military cemeteries in the area, were blocked, causing heavy traffic congestion.
Police said that the protests were illegal, and officers were present at the scene to maintain public order and help participants in various Remembrance Day ceremonies reach their destinations safely.
IRAN
Iranian port blast could be ‘planned attack, not an accident,’ IDF Gen. says – interview
Gen. Amir Avivi hinted at Israeli involvement in a recent chemical strike on Iranian rocket fuel.
By THE MEDIA LINE STAFFAPRIL 29, 2025 19:4
In an interview with The Media Line, Gen. Amir Avivi hinted at Israeli involvement in a recent chemicalstrike on Iranian rocket fuel, observing that “this attack was on fuel for ballistic rockets. So it makes sensethat this is a planned attack and not an accident.”
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
Looking ahead to renewed US–Iran negotiations, Avivi warned against trusting Tehran’s intentions. Henoted that Iranian state media “are laughing at the US. They think they’re having the upper hand,” andpressed President Trump to choose “whether he’s going to be a Churchill or a Chamberlain,” insisting thatif Iran does not fully dismantle its nuclear sites, “there is one option, an attack on the nuclear sites.”
On US-Israeli coordination, Avivi said the two governments “talk frequently” but that Washington housesvoices seeking to retreat from global leadership. He urged a “massive airstrike, just as the US is doingnow on the Houthis, just as Israel did before in Iran, but a much bigger attack,” arguing such a decisiveblow would “stop the war and not open a new war” by crippling Iran’s ability to respond.
Israel still aims to return all hostage, eradicate Hamas in Gaza
Turning to the Gaza conflict, Avivi reaffirmed Israel’s dual objectives: “to eradicate Hamas as agovernmental and military entity, to bring back all the remaining hostages, and to create a reality thatnever again there will be a terror army in the Gaza Strip.” He explained that Israel is prioritizing a hostagedeal first. Still, if talks falter, they will “launch a full-scale attack into Gaza.
Addressing troop morale, Avivi said that soldiers remain confident as long as their objectives are clear.“What the soldiers don’t like is when they feel that time is being wasted, that they are endangering theirlives, not for a worthy cause,” he said, adding that once troops know “they will be sent to win this war,”morale will stay “very, very high.”
END
IRAN ISRAEL
Iran executes individual accused of intel. cooperation with Mossad
The Iranian news source described the individual as a “senior spy and field supporter of several operations” by the Israeli intelligence agency.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSAPRIL 30, 2025 10:03Updated: APRIL 30, 2025 11:58
An Iranian man convicted of espionage and intelligence cooperation with Israel was executed by hanging on Wednesday, Iranian state media reported, at a time of high-stakes nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel, Iran has put to death many individuals it accuses of having links with Israel’s Mossad intelligence service and facilitating the latter’s operations in the country, notably assassinations or acts of sabotage meant to undermine its nuclear program.
The Iranian news source described the individual as a “senior spy and field supporter of several operations” by the Israeli intelligence agency.
Defendant was accused of assisting in death of an IRGC Colonel three years ago
According to Iran’s judiciary media outlet Mizan, the defendant identified as Mohsen Langarneshin was accused of involvement in several cases, including the death of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Colonel Hassan Sayad Khodai in 2022. The New York Times reported a few days after Khodai’s death that Israel informed the US of its responsibility for his assassination.
“During his two years as a spy (…) he was responsible for important actions, including supporting terrorist operations and being present at the scene of Khodai’s assassination,” state media said. It said the defendant also provided operational support for an attack on an industrial centre in Isfahan, affiliated with the Defense Ministry.
The state media reports said Langarneshin had confessed to the charges. Reuters was not able to reach a representative for comment.
Fars reported that Langarneshin was employed by the Israeli agency in October 2020, and after undergoing various training courses, carried out his first mission for the Mossad in January 2021. He had also met with senior Mossad officers twice, once in Georgia and again in Nepal, receiving missions on those occasions, according to the report.
Langarneshin had allegedly supplied anonymous SIM cards and cellphones to connect domestic agents to senior Mossad officers, the Fars report added, and even received cash from operatives from the Israeli agency at certain locations to deliver to agents inside Iran.
Earlier this week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi accused Israel of seeking to derail Iran-US nuclear talks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejecting the idea of limiting Tehran’s uranium enrichment via a deal and pushing for the full dismantlement of its nuclear infrastructure.
IRAN/USA
Trump Allies Say ‘Mossad Agents’ & ‘Warmongers’ Trying To Derail Iran Talks
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 11:25 PM
“Mossad agents” and “warmongers” are pushing the US into a conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Those lines aren’t coming from state-run news agencies in Tehran, but some of US President Donald Trump’s closest media allies and supporters.
Last week, conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson featured a senior Department of Defense official who he claimed was ousted because he was seen as an obstacle to the US bombing Iran.
Dan Caldwell, a top advisor to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was removed from the Pentagon earlier this month on charges that he allegedly leaked classified information about Hegseth’s use of a Signal chat, according to several media outlets.
Not so by Carlson’s telling, who has unparalleled access to Trump. “You did make maybe one career mistake by giving on-the-record interviews describing your foreign policy views…that are out of the mainstream among warmongers in Washington,” Carlson said to Caldwell, adding, “Then I read all of a sudden that you are a traitor.”
On Sunday, another conservative podcaster, Clayton Morris, a former Fox News anchor, said pro-Israel voices were “working overtime” to destroy the “anti-war team” that Trump has assembled at the Pentagon.
“We’ve learned here at Redacted that former Israeli Mossad agents are working overtime on social media and behind the scenes trying to discredit Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth,” Morris said, referring to his show. He didn’t name the so-called former agents.
Trump’s administration is divided between more traditional Republicans like US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz, and “America First” isolationists like White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
Some of Trump’s most vocal defenders in the media, who exercise unprecedented influence in communicating his worldview, are media figures like Carlson and former advisor Steve Bannon.
The firing of Caldwell and two other senior Pentagon officials appears to have energized America First anti-interventionists. Their slamming of the pro-Israel voices and former Mossad agents is unprecedented within the Republican Party. It reflects just how far Trump has taken the party from its traditionally hawkish worldview.
Pro-Trump media personalities have singled out Merav Ceren, who was nominated to head Iran and Israel at the White House National Security Council, for criticism.
Ceren was born in Haifa, Israel, and worked in the Israeli Ministry of Defense. On his show, Morris, who co-hosted a Fox morning news show with Hegseth, said that, “Neo-con Mike Waltz has now hired basically a dual citizen and former IDF official to work under him.”
The coverage reflects a growing trend in the US to view Israel with skepticism, which has intensified since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel, which sparked the Israeli invasion of Gaza and a simmering Middle East war.
According to a Pew Poll published in April, 53 percent of Americans now express an unfavorable opinion of Israel, up from 42 percent in March 2022. The shift in negative sentiment has been notable among young Republicans under 50, who are more likely to tune into podcasts like Morris’s Redacted and Carlson’s show.
The criticism comes as Trump tries to square his muscular foreign policy instincts with his pledge to refrain from starting new Middle East wars. On Iran, Trump’s closest envoys have been left contradicting themselves.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy who has emerged as his go-to global troubleshooter, suggested earlier this month that Washington would allow Iran to enrich uranium at low levels. After backlash from pro-Israel voices, he flipped, saying that Tehran “must stop and eliminate” its nuclear enrichment program fully.
This week, Secretary Rubio said the US could re-enter a deal that sees Iran keep a civilian nuclear programme – so long as it halts enrichment, and instead ships it in from abroad.
American and Iranian technical teams met in Oman on Saturday for their third round of talks. Trump told reporters on Monday that the talks are going “very well” and that “a deal is going to be made there”. “We’ll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place,” he said.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Trump Says Ukraine ‘Will Be Crushed Very Shortly’ Without Peace De
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 08:30 PM
US President Donald Trump in a recent interview with conservative show host Glenn Beck expressed doubt whether the White House can actually achieve a comprehensive peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump has made Ukraine peace the top foreign policy priority of the early part of his administration, and on the campaign trail and within his first hundred days expressed continual confidence that the US can successfully mediate, but this confidence appears to be fading with each passing week.
In the interview he noted his belief – not for the first time – that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to making a deal on Ukraine, and is actually easier to deal with than Zelensky.
“When Zelenskyy was in the Oval Office. I was talking about getting it done, and he starts screaming, ‘but we need security’, meaning security, after the fact, I said, ‘security’? I don’t even know if we can get this deal done,” Trump told Beck.
That’s when he expressed rare doubt, saying he’s not sure “if we can get this deal done.”
Referencing Zelensky, Trump continued: “He’s asking for more, just more and more and more. And he doesn’t have the cards. He doesn’t have the cards, so hopefully he’s going to get it done,” Trump said.
And in reference to Putin, Trump explained, “I think he had the idea of going all the way through” if Trump were not in the Oval Office. “I think he’s [Putin] willing to make a deal. And I would say thus far, he’s been easier to deal with than Zelensky,” Trump added.
Another interesting section of the interview came as follows:
Glenn Beck: Yeah, is he the problem? Is Putin the problem? Or is Europe the problem?
DT: So, look: Russia is a very big military force, and Ukraine isn’t. Without Ukraine — and I’m the one that supplied the Javelins [anti-tank missiles] to them, so, you know, I did a lot for them, because the tanks got stuck in the mud, and then they got Javelined, right? And they always say, “Trump gave the Javelins,” and it was, in that case, “Obama gave sheets.” He gave sheets! They said nothing.
But Biden gave money like nobody’s ever seen — $350 billion! He gave military equipment, gave storage. We had massive storage bins full of ammunition — buildings as long as the eye could see.
And in a separate ‘100-day’ interview published in The Atlantic on Monday, Trump said that without a peace deal Ukraine will soon be crushed:
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he believes Ukraine will be “crushed very shortly,” as it is up against Russia’s “big war machine” that it cannot defeat.
“I think I’m saving that nation. I think I’m doing a great service to Ukraine. I believe that,” he said in an interview with The Atlantic published April 28.
Trump admin officials have called this week “very critical” for determining whether lasting peace in Ukraine can be forged:
Rubio said that the coming week will be “very critical” for the White House as it makes a “determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in.”
“There are reasons to be optimistic, but there are reasons to be realistic,” Rubio said, adding: “We’re close, but we’re not close enough.”
“Throughout this process, it’s about determining, do both sides really want peace and how close are they or how far apart they are after 90 days of effort here … that’s what we’re trying to determine this week,” Rubio said of negotiations.
Will the US stop arming Ukraine if no peace deal is reached? Will more sanctions simply be piled onto Moscow? Or perhaps Washington will simply step aside and let Europe lead the way in fueling the proxy war.
Already NATO is said to be making plans to fill the sizeable gap of US leadership in the Western military alliance, anticipating the a US drawdown of support.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
this should be good. a lot depends on what Russia will do especially with the major mining operations in Russian sphere of influence
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Ready To Sign Trump’s Minerals Deal Wednesday, Breakthrough Reached
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 09:00 AM
After several false starts and timeline projections which didn’t pan out, Ukraine is imminently ready to sign the mineral resources deal with the US, Bloomberg has quoted a source close to negotiations as saying.
“The draft agreement, which envisages creating a joint fund to manage Ukraine’s investment projects, has been finalized and may be signed as soon as Wednesday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private,” the report says, noting that Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is en route Washington for the signing.
A source in Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office has separately told the Kyiv Independent that it will be signed by Wednesday evening. A draft document says the deal seeks to create conditions to “increase investment in mining, energy, and related technology in Ukraine.”
Crucially, the agreement excludes any conditions which say it is related to Ukraine’s debt for prior US military or financial assistance. Kiev and many of its European allies had balked at that prior controversial proposal, which had centered on Trump’s insistence that Ukraine pay back the hundreds of billions provided by the American taxpayer after over three years of war.
Bloomberg details, “In another breakthrough, the US has agreed that only future military assistance it may provide to Ukraine following the signing of the deal would count toward its contribution to the fund, according to the document.”
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal first unveiled Sunday that the Trump administration had dropped this requirement of paying back past debt.
The document “strengthens the strategic partnership between the Parties for the long-term reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine, in response to the large-scale destruction caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion” – but many specifics regarding rare earth mineral access remain unclear as of yet.
Washington and Kiev have until now spent months dancing around a deal that would allow the US access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits, which was originally proposed by Zelensky as part of his five-point “Victory Plan” unveiled last October to secure US support.
Many of Kiev’s supporters called it insultingly lopsided, and tantamount to a resource grab by the US, with Ukrainian lawmakers at one point calling an earlier revision to the mineral agreement a “horror” that offered no security guarantees from Washington.
Trump was really ramping up the pressure personally on Zelensky just last week…
An initial version of the deal sought to grant the Untied States access to all existing and future mineral deposits across Ukraine, along with oil and gas throughout the country. It would still have to be ratified by Ukrainian parliament after it is signed, theoretically at least and according to Ukrainian law.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Fwd: I believe Virginia Roberts Giuffre didn’t commit suicide; she said she would NEVER kill herself & if she died it wAS…
I believe Virginia Roberts Giuffre didn’t commit suicide; she said she would NEVER kill herself & if she died it was because people are SILENCING her; will we ever learn who was involved in Epstein
and his world? who the pedophiles are/were? those in high society, rich people, congress, senate? will truth ever come out? will we know who killed her? will we know who killed Epstein to silence?
| Dr. Paul AlexanderApr 30 |
Her tragic life started while working at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. As a teenage spa attendant. The end began there. Bill Barr failed us.
Why has the FBI and Justice Department failed to release what we want to know? They themselves said that Biden et al. was covering it up now they do same…why? We want the full list. We know big people, connected, high level government people, rich people, elites etc. Are there.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘The Jeffrey Epstein victim that just “committed suicide” said on national television “I was trafficked to Prince Andrew” Virginia Roberts Giuffre “I was so young. Ghislaine woke me up in the morning and said you’re going to meet a prince today.’
Do you think she killed herself?
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay NewsBioinformatics Scientists Confirm Covid ‘Vaccines’ Caused Sudden Heart Deaths SurgeA group of leading bioinformatics scientists has just confirmed that Covid mRNA “vaccines” are responsible for a global surge in sudden deaths caused by heart attacks and cardiac arrests.READ MOREmRNA ‘Vaccines’ Make Covid Symptoms More Severe, Study FindsA new study has found that people who received mRNA “vaccines” are more likely to be hospitalized due to a COVID-19 infection.READ MORELA Mayor Karen Bass Cuts Fire Department’s DEI Initiatives After Wildfire BacklashLos Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has pulled funding for “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) initiatives in the fire department amid the ongoing backlash over January’s wildfires.READ MORE48-Year-Old Teacher Drops Dead in Front of Horrified Middle School StudentsA New York middle school teacher has dropped dead in front of her students after suffering from a mysterious “medical episode” while teaching her class.READ MOREDemocrat Rep Booed, Chased Out of Town Hall by Liberal Constituents: ‘Traitor!’Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) was booed before she was chased out of a town hall by an angry mob of liberal constituents.READ MORETwo Illegal Aliens Arrested for Stealing Kristi Noem’s PurseAuthorities have arrested two illegal aliens for stealing Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Chief Kristi Noem’s purse.READ MORECalifornia Democrats Push to Decriminalize Welfare Fraud Under $25,000Democrat lawmakers in California have introduced new legislation that seeks to decriminalize welfare fraud in the state if the amount stolen is below $25,000.READ MORENBA Legend Dick Barnett Dead at 88New York Knicks basketball legend Dick Barnett has died, his family announced.READ MOREGene Hackman’s Autopsy Paints Grim Picture of Final DaysA new autopsy report has revealed additional details regarding Hollywood star Gene Hackman’s grim last days at his New Mexico home.READ MORERepublicans Launch Crackdown to Defund Universities with Covid ‘Vaccine’ MandatesRepublican lawmakers on Capitol Hill have launched a new crackdown on colleges that are still enforcing Covid “vaccine” mandates.READ MOREMissouri Firefighter Paramedic Stabbed to Death by Patient in Line of DutyA Missouri firefighter paramedic has tragically died after he was stabbed to death by a patient in the back of an ambulance.READ MOREPepsiCo to Remove Artificial Ingredients from All Products by End of Year to Align with RFK Jr’s CrackdownPepsiCo Inc. has become the first major food company to announce that it will remove artificial ingredients from its products to align with Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s crackdown.READ MORERecord-Breaking Blackouts in Spain & Portugal Caused by ‘Rare Atmospheric Phenomenon’The widespread power outages in Spain and Portugal, believed to be the largest ever recorded, were caused by a “rare atmospheric phenomenon,” officials have revealed.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
>
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESDOGE Uncovers 2024 Voter FraudTwo foreign nationals who illegally cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election are now in federal custody, following a major lead from one of the Trump administration’s newest and most aggressive initiatives.The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Tuesday that, in partnership with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), two Ukrainian nationals were …READ THE FULL REPORTDem Candidate Goes Missing: ‘Clothes Found on the Beach’Authorities in New York are intensifying the search for a Democratic candidate who mysteriously vanished last week, with chilling details emerging about his final known movements.Petros “Petey” Krommidas, a 29-year-old field organizer and candidate for a seat in the Nassau County legislature, has been missing since the night of Wednesday, April 23. According to police and family reports, Krommidas parked …READ THE FULL REPORTDems Enjoyed Luxury Resort’s Comforts While Protesting Deportation of Alleged MS-13 GangbangerThough the mainstream media appears to have moved on, at least for the moment, from the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case, many Americans are still fuming over the actions of the MS-13 Caucus, where five Democrats flew to the illegal immigrant’s home country of El Salvador to plead for his return to the United States.Abrego Garcia, as we’ve reported, is an …READ THE FULL REPORTWatch: President Trump’s 100-Day Celebration Rally in Warren, MichiganPresident Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks tonight in Warren, Michigan to commemorate his first 100 days in office.The rally, meant to celebrate his successes, likely comes in anticipation of the midterm election in Michigan, where Democratic Senator Gary Peters has said that he will not run for reelection.It also comes amid speculation over Trump running for a third term …READ THE FULL REPORTTwo Republicans Vote Against Melania Trump-Supported Revenge Porn BillRepublican Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Eric Burlison of Missouri broke with their party Monday, voting against revenge porn legislation backed by First Lady Melania Trump that was overwhelmingly passed by Congress.The Take It Down Act, which criminalizes the promulgation of non-consensual sexual imagery on the internet, including AI-generated “deepfakes,” sailed through the House with over 400 votes in …READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
EARLY MORNING…
WTI ‘Off The Lows’ After Large Crude/Gasoline Inventory Draws; Pump-Prices Set To Tumble
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 10:41 AM
Oil prices extended their recent plunge this morning as traders expect Saudi Arabia to steer OPEC+ to agree on another supply surge next week as the kingdom continues its campaign to discipline the cartel’s errant members.
“History shows that when OPEC+ leadership decides to encourage compliance by supply pressure, it does not stop until it achieves its goal,” said Bob McNally, president and founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and a former White House energy official.
Overnight we saw a mixed bag from API (big crude build and bid product draws). Now let’s see what the official data has to show…
API
- Crude +3.8mm
- Cushing +674k
- Gasoline -3.1mm
- Distillates -2.5mm
DOE
- Crude -2.696mm
- Cushing +682k
- Gasoline -4.003mm
- Distillates +937k
The official data was just as mixed but showed a sizable draw in crude inventories and gasoline stocks (fell for the ninth week in a row)…
Source: Bloomberg
Even including a large 1.065mm barrel addition to the SPR, total US Crude stocks fell last week…
Source: Bloomberg
US crude production remains near record highs but ‘drill baby drill’ is not so obvious in the rig count data…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI is ‘off the lows’ after the official data…
Finally, while the price rout does offer relief for consumers and central banks still feeling the effects of inflation, it spells financial pain for oil producers.
Texas oilman Bryan Sheffield has urged companies to scale back drilling to avert an industry “blood bath,” while consultant Rystad Energy slashed its estimates for US onshore crude growth by more than half. The Saudis themselves aren’t immune, requiring an oil price near $90 a barrel to cover government spending, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“Increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy” for producers, said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
END
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON
Oil Plunges On Report Saudis Bracing For Price War, Can “Live With Lower Oil Prices”
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 01:08 PM
It had already been a miserable month for oil, which has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2021 and also is on pace for its month of April on record… and then it got even worse when shortly before noon ET, when Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices.
This shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. Those cuts had supported prices, in turn bolstering the oil export revenue that many oil producers rely on, but many OPEC+ members – most notably Kazakhstan – took advantage of the production restraint and blew away through their export quotas, infuriating other cartel members.
Sure enough, Reuters notes that Riyadh has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above their OPEC+ targets. And after pushing members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyadh is changing tack, OPEC+ sources said.
Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a 4-year low.
And now that Kazahkstan blew it for all cartel members, everyone will share the pain equally, as lower prices are bad news for producers that rely on oil exports to fund their economies. Although producers like Saudi have a very low cost of production, they need higher oil prices to pay for government spending. When oil prices fall, many large oil-producing countries come under pressure to cut their budgets.
And just to confirm that they are not bluffing, the Saudis appear to be briefing allies and experts that they are ready to do just that. The last time they did just that was in March 2020, just before covid shut down the global economy and briefly sent oil prices negative, sparking budget crises across all OPEC members.
Saudi officials in recent weeks have told allies and market participants the kingdom can live with the fall in prices by raising borrowing and cutting costs, the five sources said.
“The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects,” one of the sources said. All sources declined to be named due to sensitivity of the issue.
The problem is that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 to balance its budget, higher than other large OPEC producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, Riyadh may need to delay or cut back some projects due to the price drop, analysts have said.
OPEC+, which besides the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also includes allies such as Russia, may decide to speed up output hikes again in June, OPEC+ sources have said. OPEC+ is cutting output by over 5 million barrels or 5% of global supply, to which Saudi Arabia is contributing two-fifths.
Russia, the second largest exporter in OPEC+ behind Saudi Arabia, is aware of Riyadh’s plans for faster output increases, said two of the five sources who are familiar with the Russian thinking and conversations with Riyadh. Even so, Russia would prefer the group stick to slower output increases.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto leaders of OPEC+, make the biggest contributions to OPEC+ cuts. Russia’s budget balances at about $70 a barrel and the Kremlin’s spending is on the rise due to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Russia may see a further fall in revenue as prices for its discounted, sanctioned oil could fall below $50 a barrel as a result of OPEC+ output rises, one of the two sources said.
Theories on the apparent change in Saudi strategy range from punishing OPEC+ members exceeding their quotas to a move to fight for market share after ceding ground to non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States and Guyana. Higher output may also be a fillip to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for OPEC to boost output to help keep U.S. gasoline prices down.
Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia in May and could offer Riyadh an arms package and a nuclear agreement. OPEC+ decided to triple its planned output increase to 411,000 bpd.
That still leaves OPEC+ holding back more than 5 million bpd, curbs the group aims to unwind by the end of 2026.
“We would still call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
“This confirms the market’s fears that Saudi Arabia’s accelerated unwinds were not temporary, but a long-term strategy shift,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. It raises the question of whether “Saudi is going to repeat the 2020 playbook to dramatically increase production.”
For now the market is voting “yes”, and the news sent WTI tumbling as much as 4%,or more than $2 to just under $58, the lowest price since early 2021 (and a level which was only briefly breached after Trump’s Liberation Day sent oil to $55 before rebounding rapidly).
OPEC+ rocked the crude market in early April, with a surprise decision to increase supply in May by 411,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of three monthly tranches from a previous plan. Morgan Stanley has said it expects a “meaningful surplus” to develop over time, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned the cartel may accelerate planned production increases at a meeting next week.
Beyond OPEC+, non-cartel nations are also expected to add supplies, including drillers in Canada and Guyana, feeding concerns about a global glut.
At the same time, hopes are fading that there will be quick breakthroughs in US-led trade negotiations, weighing on the outlook for energy demand. The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter as a result of a surge in pre-tariff imports and softer consumer spending. In China, factory activity slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage from the trade war.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES/
INDIA /USA
India Is Most Likely To Sign First Major Trade Deal With US, Here’s Why
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 05:20 PM
During his closely-watched CNBC interview today, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that he has a trade deal with an unnamed country, pending approval. Speculation promptly emerged who that country may be, with the most likely candidates named as India, South Korea and Japan.
Of the three, India is the nation most likely to announce the first major trade deal with the Trump admin, not only because of Apple’s decision to shift all US-focused iPhone production from China to India, but because India and China have a bit of a regional superpower rivalry between them, with the former recently surpassing the latter as the world’s most populous country (China is facing a crippling demographic crisis in several decades that would rival Japan’s), and with ambitions to overtake China’s GDP over the next 2 decades.
Case in point, Indian trade negotiators are planning to showcase the country’s large pipeline of Boeing plane orders and the potential for more to come as they seek a favorable deal with the US, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. In the absence of a deal, Indian goods exports to the US face up to 26% levies after Trump’s 90-day pause on implementation of reciprocal tariffs ends in July.
The plan is to get Indian carriers’ existing orders and under-negotiation deals with the American planemaker counted in discussions for a bilateral trade pact that could potentially shield the country from higher US tariffs.
Along with Air India, Akasa Air-operator SNV Aviation and SpiceJet have placed a combined order for 590 aircraft worth $67 billion with Boeing in recent years. With deliveries and payments for 506 of those planes staggered over several years, India wants to highlight how these private purchases would serve to narrow the more than $47 billion trade surplus New Delhi runs with Washington — a key gripe of President Donald Trump.
Underscoring how India hopes to use airplanes as leverage in the global trade war, Air India, the erstwhile state-owned carrier acquired by the Tata Group in 2022, is already looking to take deliveries of some Boeing planes that were rejected by Chinese carriers in a tit-for-tat move over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The airline is also discussing fresh orders with the American plane maker.
Indian carriers growing orders with Boeing is also boosting the American plane manufacturer’s share in the South Asian market. Of the nearly 900 commercial passenger aircraft registered in India, a majority 538 belong to the Airbus SE 320 family, according to data consultancy KnowIndia.net. Only 140 are Boeing 737s, with the rest made up of widebody, turboprops and other types of aircraft. While India’s largest carrier IndiGo operates an Airbus fleet, it last year decided to lease some Boeing 787 aircraft for a few international routes.
India is not alone in wanting to use aircraft orders as a leverage for trade negotiations. Vietnam is also employing a similar tactic to win favor with the White House.
Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to buying more US goods, including crude oil, liquefied natural gas and defense items in a meeting with Trump in Washington in February, officials feel adding private commercial aircraft deals to the list could bolster New Delhi’s case for a trade deal with the US.
The Modi administration has already offered several concessions to the US, including overhauling its tariff regime to bring down levies on some 8,500 industrial goods including key American exports such as Bourbon whiskey and high-end motorcycles such as those made by Harley Davidson Inc.
Besides airplanes, India is also hoping to appease Trump by boosting the amount of oil the country imports from the US.
Indian refiners, who have relied largely on Russian oil in recent years, have been boosting US oil purchases before trade talks between the two nations next month. Around 11.2 million barrels of crude are set to arrive in India from the US in June, the highest volume since last August, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. That comes after a drop in prices in the West Texas Intermediate benchmark as the result of lower demand because of a refinery overhaul n Singapore, along with reduced appetite in China — the world’s biggest oil importer.
“WTI has to discount significantly more than usual to incentivize the rest of Asia to take in the barrels,” said June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities. “There is also a geopolitical element, where Asian buyers may seek more WTI as a negotiating tool with the US to reduce the reciprocal tariffs, per what we are observing with Indonesia and India.”
India’s trade deficit widened more than expected in March, as oil imports jumped more than 60% from a month earlier. The nation’s exporters have been urging New Delhi officials to seal a bilateral trade deal with the US as soon as possible, with in-person negotiations set to start in the second half of May, after President Donald Trump paused a proposed 26% tariff on the Asian nation this month.
State refiners including Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have purchased at least 6 million barrels of June-arrival crude from the US across various tenders held this month, according to Bloomberg calculations.
Bharat Petroleum — which is also seeking spot supplies including grades from the US — bought 1 million barrels for the four months through September. Indian Oil has also started buying crude for July, including 3 million barrels from the US.
END
CANADA
Canada is doomed!!
NatGas Generators Rescued Spain From Net Zero Death After Power Collapse
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 09:55 AM
We want to congratulate Portugal and Spain for achieving net zero earlier this week, well ahead of the 2050 target.
Europe’s dangerous and radical shift to unreliable net zero energy has been nothing short of a disaster and an embarrassment for the far-left liberals high in their castles in Brussels.
The progressives ramming green ideology down our throats seem completely divorced from reality, having steered the West toward a bleak future built on unreliable green energy—much of it sourced from China.
Meanwhile, China is rapidly expanding its reliable coal and nuclear power generation. One can’t help but wonder whether leftist politicians are inadvertently sabotaging the very foundations of the West.
The inconvenient truth for Western liberals is that fossil fuel power generation is what restarted Spain’s power grid after the worst power blackout in a generation.
“SPAIN’s black start after the cascading power failure relied heavily on gas-fired and hydro generators to re-energise the grid and establish synchronism,” commodities analyst John Kemp wrote on X.
Reform UK Party’s Nigel Farage warned about the UK’s risk of power blackouts because of insane liberals and their net-zero lunacy.
Leftists are insane.
Back to Kemp’s X post, showing how natural gas power generation saved Spain’s grid and provided the needed power for a restart, signifies the urgent need for all power grids across the West to boost fossil fuel power generation to avert blackouts.
Net zero has put many Western countries on a collision course for disaster. Thank the climate activist liberals.
END
CANADA
O’Leary: Mark Carney Faces ‘Hell of a Time’ Fixing Trudeau’s Economy
by ITM Trading
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 14:49
“He’s going to have a hell of a time getting a budget done if he keeps telling everybody we’re going to ram down carbon taxes on every business in Canada,” says Kevin O’Leary, aka Mr. Wonderful, in an exclusive interview with Daniela Cambone following the Canada election.
He warns of serious challenges ahead for Mark Carney in his effort to “rebuild” the Canadian economy. Unless Carney repeals elements of the Liberal legacy—such as Bill C-69 and carbon taxes—it will remain a struggle to attract investment back to Canada.
O’Leary also describes Carney’s win as “historic,” but attributes much of the victory to Trump’s antagonism toward Canada. “A unique opportunity for Carney… let’s forget about the Liberals’ track record and let’s focus on the enemy within North America, and that was Trump.” Finally, O’Leary highlights the fragility of Carney’s position, noting that minority governments in Canada typically last only 18 to 24 months. Watch the video to hear O’Leary’s full analysis.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1379 DOWN 0.0011 PTS OR 11 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 142.92 UP 0.663 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3368 DOWN .0042 OR 42 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3828 UP 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 17.62 PTS OR 0.23%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 111.30 PTS OR 0.51%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.64%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 111.30 PTS OR 0.51%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.62 PTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.64%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 205.29 PTS OR .57%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3281.10
silver:$32.38
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.14 UP .12 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNEDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.014 % DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.318% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.131 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.584 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4545 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1362 DOWN .0028 OR 28 basis points
USA/Japan: 142.77 UP 0.507 OR YEN IS DOWN 51 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4895 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0020 OR 20 BASIS pts to 1.3845
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan UP TO 7.2738, CNY ON SHORE ..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2750:
TURKISH LIRA: 38.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.315
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.172% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.6664 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.623 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3303.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.48
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 31.59 PTS OR 0.37%
GERMAN DAX: UP 71.15 PTS OR .32%
FRANCE: UP 38.00 PTS OR UP .56%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 79.10 PTS OR 0.59%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 269.93 PTS OR 0.71 %
WTI Oil price 59.43 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.24 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 82.00 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 5/ 100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4545 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4895 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.138 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.731 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1339 DOWN 0.0052 OR 52 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3328 DOWN .0007 OR 7 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.438 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.316
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142.81 UP 0.554 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3782 DOWN 0.0044 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 44 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.09
Brent OIL: 60.96
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.152
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.667%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6 PTS AT 3.603%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.096 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.685 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.33 UP 31 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.49 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 82.00 UP 0 AND 60/100 roubles
GOLD $3294.30 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 32.55 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 141.74 OR 0.35%
NASDAQ 100 UP 26.07 PTS OR 0.13%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.09 up 0.92 PTS OR 3.85%
GLD: $ 303.77 DOWN 2.29 PTS OR 0.75%
SLV/ $29.60 DOWN 0.23 PTS OR OR 0.77%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED down 52.32 OR 0.21%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
‘Much Ado About Nothing’: Nasdaq Ends April Higher Despite ‘End Of US Exceptionalism’
MORNING BIG NEWS
Trump is probably correct: this is mostly to do with Biden ..stocks puke after Q1 GDP in the negative
(zerohedge)
“Nothing To Do With Tariffs” – Trump Blames Biden “Overhang” As Stocks Puke After Q1 GDP
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 09:28 AM
US equity futures are tumbling in the pre-market following a weak ADP employment report and Q1 GDP contraction (driven by a tariff-front-running surge in imports).
In the last month or two, we have been told that President Trump is not focused on the stock market, rejecting the idea of a ‘Trump Put’ (especially when it came to the decision to ‘pause’ reciprocal tariffs this month).
However this morning, following the bad data and ugly equity drop, Trump posted on TruthSocial that “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s.”
I didn’t take over until January 20th.
Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.
Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.”
This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other.
BE PATIENT!!!
The surge in imports – which dragged down GDP – is due to the tariff decisions, there is no question.
But also bear in mind that this is not a ‘classic recessionary slowdown’ in the economy, it is a front-running surge in imports ‘ahead’ of the tariffs and shrinking government spending.
The former is a temporary impact, the latter is what America voted for!!
end
AFTERNOON’S BIG NEWS
USA DATA
US Q1 GDP Contracts On Record Imports, Shrinking Govt, As Consumption Comes In Stronger Than Expected
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 09:04 AM
There were good and bad news in today’s GDP report.
Starting with the bad news, Q1 GDP printed -0.3%, worse than the -0.2% expected and the first negative print since Q1 2022 when the economy was in a recession but was subsequently revised out of it
The good news is that the drop was actually supposed to be much worse (recall the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDP estimate was -2.7%, or -1.5% excluding record gold imports). Indeed, if one looks at the components of today’s GDP print one finds that the number was actually unexpectedly strong, if one strips out the two negative components, net trade and government.
As shown in the chart below, Q1 GDP comprised of the following components:
- Personal Consumption 1.21%, down from 2.70%, but translating into an annualized Personal Consumption print of 1.8%, much higher than the 1.2% expected
- Fixed investment jumped to 1.34%, up from -0.2% and the highest since Q2 2023 as the BEA finally starts tracking data center investment correctly
- Change in private inventories surged 2.25%, as expected, on the pre-tariff restocking; this number was up from a -0.84% drop last quarter and is expected to reverse in coming quarters as inventories are sold off.
- Government spending was a negative -0.25%, the first negative print for Joe Biden’s favorite “plug” to push GDP higher since 2022.
- Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the +0.26% contribution in Q4. This was entirely the result of soaring imports (of which gold was about half) in Q1 which hit GDP by a near record 5.03%. Just like inventories, this number will now reverse in coming quarters as tariff frontrunning ends and is reversed.
And visually:
Taking a closer look at the import contribution to GDP, which was the biggest swing factor, one can see that at 5.03%, this was the 2nd highest on record with just the outlier covid shock bigger. In other words, absent economic shock, this was a record quarterly print.
In its commentary, the BEA confirmed as much, writing that “the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.”
Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.
Turning to inflation, the BEA reported that the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
Putting these in context, GDP Price index of 3.7% came in hotter than the 3.1% expected, while the core PCE of 3.5% was also hotter than the 3.1%.
Bottom line, the GDP number was much stronger than expected, in fact it was a whopping 2.4% higher than the now laughable AtlantaFed GDP forecast, and if anything this positions the Trump admin for a surprise bounce in Q2 and/or Q3 when all the outlier prints from Q1 are reversed.
end
weakest job growth since July 2024
(zerohedge)
Rate-Cut Odds Jump After ADP Reports Weakest Job Growth Since July 2024
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 08:24 AM
While jobless claims refuse to show even a glimmer of hope to the doomsaying ‘recession is imminent and it’s all because of Trump’ narrative, this morning’s ADP gives us a potential glimpse at what Friday’s ‘most important payrolls print ever’ will offer.
…and the picture is not pretty at all…
According to ADP, the US economy added just 62k jobs in April – the lowest since July 2024’s dip
Source: Bloomberg
Education and health services, information, and professional and business services lost jobs, while hiring in other sectors was moderate.
“Unease is the word of the day,” says Nela Richardson Chief Economist.
“ADP Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
Goods-Producing jobs outperformed Service-Providing jobs…
There is more bad news –
Pay for job-stayers rose 4.5 percent in April from a year earlier, a slight deceleration from March.
Year-over-year pay gains for job-changers accelerated, rising from 6.7 percent in March to 6.9 percent in April – the highest since Dec 2024.
The market is moving that way – pricing in four cuts for 2025 now.
END
Stagflation Scenario Slammed As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles To Four Year Lows
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 10:16 AM
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – printed cooler than expected in March, unchanged MoM (vs +0.1% exp), bring prices up 2.6% YoY – the lowest since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
…with non-durable goods deflating MoM the biggest drag on Core PCE
…but, but, but we were told tariffs would spark hyper-super-scary-inflation?
The headline PCE was -0.045% MoM – the biggest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns…
…dragging headline PCE YoY down to +2.3%…
SuperCore PCE also saw the YoY pace slow significantly…
Spending outpaced incomes significantly in March…
Source: Bloomberg
Which means that the savings rate fell to 3.9% from 4.1% in February, which was revised lower from 4.6%…
Adjusted for inflation, real personal spending surged 0.7% MoM (not a total surprise given that ‘consumers’ are panicking over an imminent surge in inflation, of course they should be spending)….
It appears DOGE is doing its jobs too – crushing govt wage growth
- March Government worker wages and salaries up just 2.9%, down from 3.2% in Feb and the lowest since Sept 2020
- March Private worker wages and salaries up 5.4%, down from 5.7%, and lowest since Dec 2022
…and there goes the stagflation scenario.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Mark Zuckerberg Warns A ‘Reckoning’ Is Coming For One Of The Biggest Scams In Amer
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 05:00 PM
The student loan bubble is about to burst, and Zuckerberg knows it. He says there’s one huge problem with college today that no one can ignore anymore.
It started with a strange but telling moment. One that pulled back the curtain on the secretive world of Mark Zuckerberg.
On This Past Weekend podcast, comedian Theo Von joked about wanting to dig a tunnel underground. What he didn’t expect was for Zuckerberg to casually admit he had already done it.
“I do have an underground tunnel,” Zuckerberg said without hesitation.
Theo, caught completely off guard, asked, “Do you really? In the USA?”
Zuckerberg confirmed it was real and even bigger than Theo expected.
“I have this ranch in Kauai,” he said. “There’s this whole meme about how people are saying, I built this, like, bunker underground. It’s like more of underground storage.”
Theo, laughing, teased him: “Zucky got that bunky. What’s under the ground? Just more water, right?”
Zuckerberg brushed it off, but he didn’t deny the core of the rumor.
“It’s basically what you just said. It’s sort of a tunnel that just goes to another building.”
Not exactly a bunker, according to Zuckerberg, just an underground passage connecting parts of his remote island fortress. Well… Nothing to see here, right?
As the interview went on, Zuckerberg shifted gears and dropped a much bigger bomb.
He admitted what millions of Americans are starting to feel: college isn’t preparing young people for the real world anymore, and the student debt crisis is heading straight for a reckoning.
It’s a personal subject for Zuckerberg, who famously dropped out of Harvard to build Facebook, and now sees the system he left behind collapsing under its own weight.
“I’m not sure that college is preparing people for, like, the jobs that they need to have today,” he said.
“I mean, I think that that’s like there’s a big issue on that. And like, all the student debt issues are like really big issues.”
He pointed to the crushing cost of a degree and the broken promises that come with it.
“I mean, the fact that college is just so expensive for so many people and then, like, you graduate when you’re in debt,” he said.
“If it’s not preparing you for the jobs that you need and you’re kind of starting off in this big hole, then I think that’s not good.”
In Zuckerberg’s view, the system isn’t just broken — it’s on borrowed time.
“There’s going to have to be a reckoning,” he warned.
“People are going to have to kind of figure out whether that makes sense.”
And the taboo around questioning college?
He says that’s starting to crumble too.
“It’s sort of been this taboo thing to say, like, maybe not everyone needs to go to college,” he said.
“Because there’s like a lot of jobs that don’t require that.”
“But I think people are probably coming around to that opinion a little more now than maybe like ten years ago.”
And he wasn’t done yet.
The conversation soon turned to another taboo—one that most tech CEOs wouldn’t dare touch: the role of media elites in misjudging, mislabeling, and underestimating ordinary people.
Strange coming from the man involved in censoring millions of Americans and the president himself, but nonetheless, Zuckerberg unleashed on the media.
He slammed the entire idea that the public is too dumb to make their own decisions, a belief quietly pushed by many in the media.
“Like, I’ve always been a person who really kind of believes that people are smarter than people think,” he said, “and, and I think in general, are able to make good decisions for their lives.”
The real problem, Zuckerberg argued, isn’t the people — it’s the media’s failure to understand them.
“And when they do things that like the media or whatever thinks don’t make sense, it’s generally because the media doesn’t understand their life, not because the people are stupid.”
In one of the sharpest moments of the interview, he flipped the whole “misinformation” narrative on its head.
“Like if people are saying something that seems wrong, it’s not usually misinformation. It’s usually that you don’t understand what’s going on in that person’s life.”
And he didn’t stop there.
Zuckerberg called out the deep-rooted arrogance that still runs through legacy media outlets.
“I just think that there’s like a certain kind of paternalism in, in some of the, like, mainstream narratives and some of the media narratives,” he said.
But now, he hinted, the tide might finally be turning — because the so-called “experts” are losing their grip.
“I think it’s a little more receptive as maybe some of those cultural or media elite people are having a harder time predicting what’s going to happen in the world. Maybe there’s a little more humility of like, okay, maybe we don’t understand all of this.”
Finally, Zuckerberg ended with a brutal warning for the tech world—one rooted in hard experience.
The biggest mistake tech companies make?
Thinking they’re smarter than the people they claim to serve.
Zuckerberg explained why arrogance toward everyday users almost always leads to disaster.
“To me, the best predicting thing has always been like, all right, if you build something, do people actually think it’s good?” he said.
“Because like at some level, you know, it’s like, I just believe that people are actually very smart and understand their lives very well.”
He reiterated that the real test isn’t winning awards or impressing other executives. It’s whether real people actually find what you build useful.
“If you’re building something that is useful for them, then they will use it,” he said. “And if you’re building something that is not useful for them, then they have other options. They will do something else.”
Zuckerberg said trusting people’s judgment — not lecturing them — has been his greatest advantage.
“I don’t know, it’s always served me well to generally have faith in people and believe that people are smart and can make good decisions for themselves.”
But he also offered a serious warning.
Whenever companies start thinking they know better than their customers, it’s the beginning of the end.
“Whenever we try to, like, adopt some sort of like attitude of, oh, we must know better than them, it’s like—we’re like—we’re the people building technology. That’s when you lose, right?”
And when you lose touch for long enough, the fall is brutal.
“If you have that attitude for long enough, then you just become a shitty company and you lose and you lose and you lose and then you’re irrelevant.”
In the end, Zuckerberg said, it’s not the elites who shape the future, it’s the people.
“I tend to just think that at the end of the day, yeah, I mean, I think people are smarter than a lot of people think, and I think ultimately drive the direction that society goes in.”
Underestimate everyday people and you lose everything.
Watch the full conversation between @TheoVon and Mark Zuckerberg here:
END
STUDENT LOANS
“We’re Going To Start Getting It Back”: Trump Admin Begins Collecting On Student Loans In Default
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 03:05 PM
Last week we highlighted the next economic shock; a student loan default wave that could cause a $63 billion hit to GDP.
And here it comes. During Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting, Education Secretary Linda McMahon said “We’re going to start getting it back,” adding “For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying — that’s just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they’re in default, they can’t buy a house, they can’t buy a car, their credit scores go down.” h/t Jennifer Jacobs
As we reported last week (full note available to premium subscribers), student-loan delinquencies began climbing after the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers’ credit reports.
The New York Fed estimates 15.6% of federal student-loan balances — more than $250 billion — were past due by the end of the ramp-up period, affecting 9.7 million borrowers. As these delinquencies hit credit reports, borrowers face steep declines in their credit scores and, more importantly, sharply reduced access to credit.
That said, delinquent borrowers could still enroll in income-driven repayment plans offered by the Department of Education, and the scale of past-due loans may have shifted since the end of the on-ramp period. Some borrowers who were past due may have come back into compliance since.
Overall, if 9.7 million borrowers default and face declining credit scores, BBG estimates a drag on annual PCE spending of 0.1% point to 0.3%. In the worst-case scenario, it could reduce PCE spending growth by as much as 0.4% by year-end… an outcome that is extremely deflationary, just in case Jerome Powell is still debating whether or not to pull the plug on rate cuts.
END
Running On Fumes: US Truckers Upside Down In Loans As Freight Downturn Turns Dangerous
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 02:45 PM
Submitted by Gord Magill for American Truckers United:
The Trucking Industry in America received a major boost from President Trump on the night of Monday, April 28, when he signed an Executive Order titled “Enforcing Commonsense Rules of The Road for America’s Truck Drivers”. The primary aim of the order is to overturn an Obama-era memorandum that waived enforcement of English Language Proficiency requirements as required under 49 CFR 31.11 (b) (2); that waiver having opened a massive loophole, which matched with a program from the Biden Administration, allowed for the insourcing of a great deal of unvetted foreign labor onto America’s roads as ‘truck drivers’.
This move to restrict the insourcing of foreign truckers into America, which was a deliberate attempt to suppress American’s wages for the bidding of massive corporations like Amazon, whom are known and a major client of subcontractors that abuse such labor, is welcomed and acknowledged by the trucking community. We hope that this is only the beginning of a number of reforms which ought to see the return of a healthy, sustainable, and safe trucking industry to our roads.
x.com/Tomhennessey69/status/1904604848995393911?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1904604848995393911%7Ctwgr%5E6827da0ce9efb34f384244413ce91feb122654b8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=htt
Another major problem coming over the horizon is likewise tied to the same Covid demand spike that saw the Biden Administration make the terrible mistake of allowing the insourcing of all of these excess entrants into the market. Drivers are only one component of the trucking industry; where do the trucks come from for people to drive, and how were they paid for during this period? As it turns out, many of the trucks we see on the road today are “under water assets” that are not being paid for, and a situation akin to the 2008 financial crisis is taking place right now, not with real estate, but with trucks.
In an interview (via Autonomous Truck(er)s) with Harvey Beech, President of EOS Trucking in North Little Rock, Arkansas, a number of details about this problem are revealed.
“When you look at what happened with used truck prices, that’s where this started. It’s very similar to the housing bubble, where we had unchecked lust and greed which took over and we started seeing Freightliners with 450,000 miles being retailed out there for well north of $150,000 at 12 to 15% interest. And it went on at scale.
…
We’ve been conditioned to expect downturns in freight cycles. And that’s why so many of us in the first quarter of 2023 …we knew we were going into something … really intense with regards to truck pricing. We knew there was a lot of trucks bought at over inflated prices … and as soon as things turned we knew those would be the first to have their trucks re-possessed.”
Curiously, Beech tells us, those trucks were not actually repossessed.
“We did not expect the banks to allow what has become eternal deferrals … we learned in 2008 … that you have to have cash reserves, and hunker down, and wait on everyone else to have their trucks repossessed. In May of 2023 … we had financing companies say ‘Hey, you might want to think about not making your truck payments.’
As everyone runs out of cash … one of the things you have to do is request deferral which means you’re not making your truck payment, which means you’re going upside down … the banks are supposed to repossess … in 2008 there were oceans of trucks repossessed … they had to rent cow pastures to park the trucks.
November of 2023 I’m hearing of big carriers going into their 6th month of deferrals … 2024 we expect to see a turn, and it doesn’t come …. And the turn of this year it still hasn’t come. No one’s trucks are being re-possessed … never has there been this much widespread non-performance on loans.”
And why wouldn’t financing companies or dealerships want to repossess equipment their customers were incapable of paying for?
“The truck makers and financial institutions that chose to take part in that huge bubble that was created (in 2021- early 22) … now that has caused them to be so far upside down that they can’t repossess trucks … back in 08 it was 90 days, by 120 they were repossessing trucks …the banks failures to repossess trucks has drained the cash reserves of those of us left to compete all this time against carriers on six month to a year or more of deferred payments … the financial institutions will not execute … some truck financing institutions are at 80% in deferral … that is bank failure material … they cannot repossess the trucks .. because they have to record that loss, and this is so widespread, like never before … if they repossessed all of the trucks, they would have had such losses because of the overinflated prices … that it would collapse the financial institutions altogether.”
There are others in trucking reporting similar problems, but unlike Mr Beech, would only report their observations under the condition of anonymity.
“This has been the toughest past 3 years we have experienced in 30 years”
“My fleet received deferrals from four lenders starting in late 2023, following nearly two years of industry downturn. Three deferrals lasted 3 months, with two extended for an additional 3 months.”
“We haven’t taken or asked for payment deferrals from anyone. I did bust the balls of my banker telling him I felt they were complacent in extending terms and letting payments go 6 months in arears for other borrowers. I felt that the reason was they financed trucks and trailers at numbers they didn’t want on their books. Stock prices were really good and moving up so they were better off to not take back a $100,000 truck that was worth $50,000 not because of the write off they could with stand that it was what it might do to stock valuation.”
“We are approaching our bank renewal for the trucking business and I do not know if they will have much confidence in us. 25 months in the red is not something that gives confidence“
As the effects of Trump’s Tariffs begin to be felt, no doubt some carriers who are in dire straits will be wiped out of the market. If not for the Biden administration flooding the trucking industry with insourced labor in 2021, and the greed of financial institutions repeating the same lending mistakes of 2008, many of those carriers would have weathered this storm.
Are we about to face another, perhaps smaller, financial meltdown caused by the malfeasance of lending institutions? How many American trucking companies are they going to take down with them by kicking this can down the road?
Will government leaders and the banks ever learn?
JUNK FOOD..
Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz Demand Slides Across North America, Says Mondelez
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 02:25 PM
A slowdown in economic activity, combined with growing tariff uncertainty, appears to be curbing consumer appetite for highly processed junk food. The latest trends show a declining demand for sweet snacks in North America as more shoppers shift their spending toward real food, such as meat, vegetables, and eggs.
Mondelez International — the maker of Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz, Toblerone, Cadbury, and other highly processed food brands — reported slower-than-expected sales for the first quarter.
Organic revenue, which excludes currency fluctuations and one-time items, increased 3.1%, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.5%. Notably, sales in North America declined during the quarter.
On an earnings call, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told analysts: “I really do not expect to see a significant improvement in consumer confidence in the near term in the US.”
“Two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits,” Van de Put said adding, “We’re now seeing that we need to be below $4 and ideally below $3.”
Mondelez noted that shoppers are beginning to prioritize real food — if that’s meat, vegetables, and eggs — over snacks, chips, and candy. Also, lower-income consumers are pivoting towards smaller packages, while higher-income consumers are searching for larger value bundles.
Mondelez reiterated its full-year guidance and warned profit will slide 10% this year “due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation.”
Weighing in on the North American junk food slowdown, Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson offered clients their first take on Mondelez’s first-quarter results and its unchanged full-year outlook:
- North America came in softer-than-expected on the back of retailer destocking and softer cracker demand as the consumer remains value-focused;
- chocolate elasticity tracked in-line with expectations, although more pricing is still to come; and
- MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guide in constant currency while potential upside is likely to be reinvested throughout the year to support potential growth in FY26
The key takeaway for the North American market:
- North America softer-than-expected: Organic net sales in North America came in softer-than-expected at -3.6% (vs GS/consensus of flat/+0.1%), largely due to retailer destocking (-250 bps), while segment profitability also missed. The destocking impact should be one time in nature, but we do not expect it to reverse as we have heard from retailers that this effort has been driven by efficiency gains. Additionally, MDLZ noted softer demand for crackers (vs cookies), although both categories are holding up relatively better than other parts of snacking, plus the company is holding share due to investments in price pack architecture and key activations. Additionally, management spoke to increasing promotional activity by peers in crackers, and we see greater private label competition in the category as well. Regarding consumer behavior, the company noted a shift to smaller pack sizes by the lower end and toward multi-packs for upper income cohorts, along with a shift in channels toward dollar stores, clubs, and value retailers.
Details about the cocoa market:
- Chocolate elasticity tracking in-line, although more pricing still to come: MDLZ indicated elasticity within chocolate tracked in-line with expectations at -0.5%, while it gained share in the category. However, more pricing will be implemented in the spring with management taking a wait and see approach while expressing confidence in its chocolate strategy with a range of price points. The company expects a top line acceleration throughout the year, supported by both pricing and volumes, with Easter strength noted for 2Q and pricing negotiations are now complete in Europe (vs a disruption last year). By region, management highlighted solid Easter chocolate demand for Europe/UK, Brazil, and Australia, with stable YTD elasticities noted for Europe and Emerging Markets. Notably, MDLZ indicated greater elasticity for chocolate in the U.S. vs ROW with volumes tracking down -5%, which is a negative read-through for HSY.
Notes on guidance:
- Reiterated FY25 guide with potential upside expected to be reinvested: MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guidance with an adj EPS decline of -10% (constant currency), noting potential upside would likely be reinvested (e.g., 1Q beat planned to be reinvested in marketing this year), while the tariff impact remains small. FY25 organic sales guidance was also reiterated at +5%, with sequential improvements supported by both volume and pricing. We also expect a gross margin improvement throughout the year tied to its pricing action. Regarding FY26, MDLZ expects EPS growth y/y, but management stopped short on the magnitude of potential ranges given cocoa uncertainty. For cocoa, the company still sees a supply/demand surplus with further demand destruction likely (as some will likely reformulate). Furthermore, the company sounded constructive on its position given lower cocoa butter prices y/y, its bigger input exposure.
Despite key downside risks, such as an economic slowdown, Goldman analysts remained “Buy” rated on Mondelez, with a 12-month price target of $71.
Mondelez did not indicate that the slowdown in junk food demand was influenced by the “Make America Healthy Again” movement in any way (well at least not yet).
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
KING NEWS
| The King Report April 30, 2025 Issue 7482 | Independent View of the News |
| Amazon Shares Tumble After White House Calls Tariff-Tracker ‘Hostile and Political Act’ Shares of Amazon tumbled to premarket lows Tuesday after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the company’s recent decision to display the effect of tariffs on products a “hostile and political act,” adding “why didn’t Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?”… “It’s not a surprise,” Leavitt continued, adding “Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm. So, this is another reason Americans should buy American.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amazon-shares-tumble-after-leavitt-calls-tariff-tracker-hostile-and-political-act @seanmdav: Why does Amazon refuse to disclose where its crap products from companies with fake names are manufactured. Amazon won’t disclose country of origin, but it knows the exact country-specific tariff? @MichaelGuimarin: Amazon has made a costly and catastrophic mistake by choosing to list tariff prices…. the vast majority of goods that are tariffed on Amazon have been artificially lowered in value upon declaration. Eg, they import $50k worth of goods in a container but submit it as $10k to lower their tax. Their action has spurred the adoption of supply train trace-ability. And with cryptography and (sigh) blockchains, we can get real good at this. The net effect is Amazon and the Chinese have given away the game. Huge boom for the American consumer, but will annihilate Amazon in the short term. The reason why Amazon and the Chinese marketplace are doing this… Is because they haven’t updated their mental model on the speed and competence of the US government. They think the decisions the gov has made are permanent, and won’t be changed next week in response. Their OODAs loops have been infiltrated the Trump admin. With the possible exception of Walmart, no one on Planet Earth, has profited more from the CCP than Jeff Bezos. Amazon has been China’s distribution hub into the US for decades, Amazon says it won’t list tariff fees after White House blasts company – Bezos-owned WaPo https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/29/amazon-trump-tariffs-leavitt/ Walmart tells Chinese suppliers to resume shipments amid US trade war A stationery exporter in Ningbo confirmed receiving orders from Walmart to resume deliveries. The company’s vice-president said that additional tariffs on Chinese goods would be absorbed by US clients, allowing shipments to continue without extra costs for Chinese exporters… https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/walmart-china-shipment-resume-to-us-trade-war-trump-tariff-125042900372_1.html China waived tariffs on US ethane imports because it desperately needs it for petrochemical production. White House confirms ‘stacked’ tariff reprieve for auto industry https://t.co/cVc5cI1wUc Current tariffs of 25% on imported vehicles into the U.S. will continue, but the new measures will prevent other adjacent levies, such as an additional 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, from “stacking” on top of the others, a White House official told NBC News. Additional 25% tariffs on auto parts that are expected by May 3 are still scheduled to take effect, but there will be an ability for some reimbursements, the official said. The reimbursements on auto parts tariffs include up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year, followed by 2.5% of the car’s value in a second year, and then would be phased out altogether… Lutnick: Cars Finished in U.S. that Have 85% Domestic Content Will Have No Tariffs – Reuters @WarMachineRR: @SecScottBessent calls out European countries for their “unfair” Digital Services Tax on our internet providers: “We want to see that unfair tax on one of America’s great industries removed.” https://x.com/WarMachineRR/status/1917241449697144988 March US JOLTS Job Openings: 7.192m, 7.5m expected, 7.568m prior Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney slams Trump in victory speech https://t.co/AsGdMBSJQP ESMs opened moderately lower on Monday night and hit a low of 5537.50 at 18:42 ET. They then rallied to 5573.75 at 22:26 ET. ESMs then traded in a 21-handle range until they broke down at 6:32 ET. ESMs sank to 5533.25 at 6:47 ET. After an A-B-C bounce to 5558.25 at 8:46 ET, ESMs tumbled to a daily low of 5521.50 at 9:09 ET. ESMs then rallied to a daily high of 5577.25 at 12:09 ET. The late morning rally contained a 34-handle sudden drop and a 24-handle drop. Aggressive buying appeared after each sudden decline. After a decline to 5547.25 at 12:56 ET, someone juiced ESMs to 5597.75 at 14:05 ET. After a 13-handle retreat, ESMs traded in an 11-handle range until they fell to 5580.75 at 15:42 ET. A late manipulation pushed ESMs to 5596.50 at 15:50 ET. Late selling dropped ESMs to 5584.50 at 16:00 ET. Tuesday’s King Report: The penultimate day of a marking period usually contains the peak intensity of the manipulation to game performance. So, be alert for another afternoon manipulation like yesterday. U.S. accounting firms tap India to alleviate talent crunch https://t.co/sGUCHisXN4 Reports say there are an estimated 340,000 fewer accountants than five years ago, and accounting enrollment in colleges is down sharply. Family member accountants have been complaining for years that young accountants do NOT want to work the lengthy and strenuous hours that occur in tax season and yearned reporting. https://www.kent.edu/business/accountant-shortage-united-states-everything-you-need-know Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied 300.03 (0.75%); the NY Fang+ Index rallied 0.68%; the S&P 500 Index gained 0.58%. USMs were +21/32 at the NYSE close; the dollar rallied modestly. Oil and gasoline declined sharply. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied only 15.85 points. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who did the afternoon ESM manipulation? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5546.16 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5571.95; 5505.70 WSJ: GM, JetBlue and Volvo all shelved earlier profit guidance for 2025 due to economic uncertainty. Today is the end of April, plus Meta and Microsoft report after the close. The usual suspects want to manipulate stuff higher to embellish April performance, which is poor. Much of the action on Tuesday reflected concern that Q1 GDP will be negative, and a US recession is nigh. Though the consensus Q1 GDP forecast is 0.1%, several big-name economists see modestly negative Q1 GDP. Ergo, if Q1 GDP isn’t ugly, there could be a relief rally. Be alert for a late manipulation, like the previous two sessions, to game April performance. ESMs are -21.50; NQMs are -105.50; and USMs are +5/32 at 21:10 ET on US companies withholding forward guidance and because DJT slammed Powell. “Not really doing a good job. You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed. You’re supposed to let him do his own thing – but I know more than he does about interest rates.” The media is acting like Trump committed a capital crime. Expected earnings: April ADP Employment Change 115k; Q1 GDP 0.1%, Consumption 1.2%, GDP Price Index 3.1%, Core PCE 3.2%, Employment Cost Index 0.9%; April Chicago PMI 45.9; March Personal Income 0.4%, Spending 0.6%, PCE Price Index 0.0% m/m & 2.2% y/y, Core PCE 0.1% m/m & 2.6% y/y; March Pending Home Sales 1.-0% m/m & -5.6% y/y Expected economic data: HUM 10.09, CAT 4.33, IP .40, YUM 1.28, ALL 2.61, META 5.25, MSFT 3.21, PRU 3.17, MAA 2.16, MET 2.01, MGM .47 S&P Index 50-day MA: 56213; 100-day MA: 5811; 150-day MA: 5822; 200-day MA: 5746 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,501; 100-day MA: 42,631; 150-day MA: 42,751; 200-day MA: 42,214 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5560.83 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6306.68 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5645.69 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5514.05 triggers a sell signal Ukraine calls for permanent ceasefire after Russia announces three-day pause Putin announced the pause would occur next month and run from midnight on May 7-8 and end at midnight on May 10-11. The actual victory day is May 8… https://justthenews.com/world/europe/ukraine-calls-permanent-ceasefire-after-russia-announces-three-day-pause @JewishWarrior13: The Washington Post reported that about half of the lawyers in the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division resigned after the new head of the division, Harmeet Dhillon ordered her team to focus on combating anti-Semitism, transgender women’s participation in women’s sports, and “woke ideology.” https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1917144706150011328 @VigilantFox: GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is demanding the Epstein client list from Pam Bondi following the suspicious deaths of two Jeffrey Epstein victims. “Two Epstein victims are now dead,” Luna posted on X. “Every day the DOJ delays releasing the Epstein client list, public trust erodes and more lives are put at risk.” In a shocking twist, Virginia Giuffre’s own lawyer dropped a bombshell: he doesn’t believe her death was a suicide. Luna had already sent formal, urgent letters to the DOJ on February 11 and 19, demanding updates on the release of the files. After receiving no response, she took her fight public—pressuring Bondi directly to release the documents. The Gateway Pundit reported that Luna even confronted Bondi face-to-face back in February. Yet months later, still no action has been taken. “The American people deserve the truth,” Luna said. “We’ve waited long enough.” The question now is louder than ever: What is the DOJ hiding—and why is Pam Bondi still silent? Fox’s @BillMelugin_: California Democrat state senator Lola Smallwood-Cuevas has introduced SB560, a bill that would decriminalize welfare fraud below an amount of $25,000. It would also prohibit prosecutions for attempted welfare fraud and would prohibit someone from being charged w/ perjury if they are subject to prosecution for welfare fraud. (The Looney Left is beyond insane!) Smallwood-Cuevas represents a large chunk of Los Angeles County, including Mar Vista, West LA, Baldwin Hills, Ladera Heights, Century City, Playa Vista, and part of downtown LA. SB560 is scheduled for a hearing next Monday on May 5th. https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1916972570399936966 @DanProft: These numbers should dominate the policy discussion in Illinois and yet it garners no mention from the powers that be. The reason why is obvious. Look at the per pupil spend and graduation rates of schools where 0% of students can read or do math at grade level. For example, Dunbar HS on Chicago’s South Side. $26K per pupil in spend. 0% do math at grade level. 2% read at grade level. 72% grade rate. (‘No Children Left Behind is another Bush blunder’) How the political ruling class lives with itself and the IL electorate lives with them is astounding. https://x.com/DanProft/status/1917210760029052989 Ex-NYC acting teacher distributed more than 1,500 child porn images — including of infants and toddlers: feds https://trib.al/uswLYCT (There is a national pedophilia problem in US schools.) | |
SWAMP NEWS
Appeals Court Reinstates Order Barring Trump Admin From Firing CFPB Employee
Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A federal appeals court on April 28 lifted its previous order that had allowed the Trump administration to carry out workforce reductions at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).
On April 11, the appeals court partially stayed a preliminary injunction issued by a district court, allowing the CFPB to proceed with laying off workers if a “particularized assessment” determined their roles were not essential to the agency’s statutory duties. However, the court barred the administration from enforcing a stop-work order at the agency.
In a divided ruling, a three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit lifted the partial stay amid arguments over the meaning of the “particularized assessment” requirement.
“The parties vigorously dispute whether this language permits judicial review of the questions whether the assessment at issue was ‘particularized’ and whether the employees subject to the RIF are ‘unnecessary to the performance of defendants’ statutory duties,’” the order stated, referring to the acronym for reduction in force.
According to the order, a “particularized assessment” is defined as a determination—made by an official responsible for the workforce reduction—that each division or office within CFPB will be able to perform its statutorily required duties without the employees who are subject to termination.
Judge Neomi Rao dissented, saying the district court’s injunction raises concerns about the “separation of powers” and that it interferes with the government’s management of federal agencies.
“The district court overstepped our stay. Rather than remedy the judicial error, today’s order hamstrings the Executive and prevents the CFPB from downsizing until the merits of the appeal are resolved,” Rao stated in her dissenting opinion.
The Epoch Times reached out to CFPB for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.
In February, the National Treasury Employees Union sued Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget and acting director of the CFPB. The union accused the Trump administration of violating the nation’s separation of powers by moving to dismantle the agency without congressional approval. Several other groups joined the suit in an amended complaint days later.
On March 28, U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson issued a preliminary injunction, blocking the administration from laying off CFPB employees and from enforcing a stop-work order at the agency.
“If the defendants are not enjoined, they will eliminate the agency before the Court has the opportunity to decide whether the law permits them to do it, and as the defendants’ own witness warned, the harm will be irreparable,” Jackson wrote in her opinion.
The CFPB was established by a 2010 law in response to the 2008 financial crisis. According to the agency’s website, CFPB “implements and enforces federal consumer financial law and ensures that markets for consumer financial products are transparent, fair, and competitive.”
President Donald Trump’s senior adviser Elon Musk previously stated on the social media platform X that the agency is “duplicative” and should be eliminated.
Jacob Burg and Sam Dorman contributed to this report.
END
Sen. Josh Hawley Introduces PELOSI Act To Stop Insider-Trading
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 – 01:25 PM
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has reintroduced the “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” (PELOSI) Act that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from trading stocks while in office.
The name of the act is a direct nod in the direction of 20 term Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) whose net worth has soared from $160,000 when she was first elected in 1987 to more than $140 million in 2024.
Pelosi’s husband Paul, who narrowly survived a hammer attack 2022, is an investor who has made significant financial gains on stock trades that some speculate may have been based on insider information.
Hawley first introduced the PELOSI Act in 2023 but it failed to gain traction under the Biden administration.
Since then, the proposal has gained support on both sides of the congressional aisle and Fox News reports that President Trump has said he would “absolutely” sign the ban if it arrives on his desk.
Hawley has been a consistent critic of members of Congress being more focused on day-trading than they are on representing their constituents.
In a statement, Hawley said, “Americans have seen politician after politician turn a profit using information not available to the general public. It’s time we ban all members of Congress from trading and holding stocks and restore Americans’ trust in our nation’s legislative body.”
The PELOSI Act would prohibit lawmakers and their spouses from purchasing, selling or holding stocks during the time that the lawmaker is in office.
Lawmakers would still be able to invest in U.S. Treasury Bonds, diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds while in office.
Should the PELOSI Act be signed into law, current members of Congress would have 180 days to comply with newly elected members being required to comply with in 180 days of entering office.
Lawmakers who violate the act would be required to hand over their profits to the U.S. Treasury Department and could also face fines of up to 10% on each transaction.
GREG HUNTER INTERVEWING STEVEL QUAYLE
We are in a Hot War Now – Steve Quayle
By Greg Hunter On April 29, 2025 In Political Analysis3 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert Steve Quayle is warning, in the not-so-distant future, war could be everywhere and food could be nowhere. Let’s start with the under-reported escalation that could go nuclear between Pakistan and India. Will it be confined to just these two countries? Quayle says, “No, it will not be confined to just them. What Pakistan did was to directly threaten India. They told India we have 130 nuclear warheads aimed at you. What most people lose track of is all the different defense agreements, and China is on Pakistan’s side. . . .What is coming under most people’s radar is this is the first nuclear launch of nuclear armed missiles with one nation against another. When you start talking about the two most populated countries in the world, and that is India and China, you get a golden jackpot of these people going at each other. So, this will not stay confined.”
What would happen if a nuclear exchange occurred anywhere in the world? Everyone would be affected, and Quayle explains, “When the first nuclear weapon is fired by one country against another. . . or a terrorist incident with a nuclear warhead, then all of us know there is a countdown. It will be possibly in days, or possibly in weeks, but no longer than weeks will we have to be prepared. At that point . . . your checks won’t come in the mail; you won’t be able to get anything by FedEx, and every parcel service . . . will shut down. . . . This is why people will have to take this seriously. We are talking about a nuclear crisis.”
In Europe, Quayle says, “The Ukraine/Russia peace deal is dead. . . . I believe NATO is toast. You are seeing it breaking down in real time. . . . You will see US military move out of Europe. We are not in a cold war. We are in a hot war now. . . . You are seeing global economic collapse, and it cannot be stopped. . . . Death, famine and plague are all coming.”
In closing, Quayle says, “Food is everything. . . . This is WWIII. We are at war. Get canned food, rice and sauces. If you do not listen to the warning and get food supplies now, you are going to starve.
There is more in the 54-minute video.
There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm. You can get more information on Starlink and Sat phones, too, at Sat123.com or BeReady123.com. You can also call 1-855-980-5830 and talk to a real human.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes one-on-one with Steve Quayle, who talks about very hard times coming to America and what you need to do now for 4.29.25.
After the Interview:
You can get more information at Sat123.com or BeReady123.com or you can call 855-980-5830.
For a SQ Private Briefings subscription, click here.
SEE YOU TOMORROW
H
harveyorganblog.com 
