GOLD CLOSED UP $19.95 TO $3,244.25
SILVER CLOSED UP $0.44 TO $32.89
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3248.95
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.96
Bitcoin morning price:$102,744 UP 1034 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $104,670 up 2960 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $9.45 TO $991.95
Palladium price; DOWN $9.45 TO $957.25
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,528.98 UP 3.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2442.61 DOWN 13.40 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,566.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MAY 6/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2928.60 UP 4.65 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 3018.80 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,220.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/12/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/14/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 144
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 6
323 C HSBC 333
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 241
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 349
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 800
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 4 28
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 2 3
905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 956 956
MONTH TO DATE: 17,081
JPMORGAN STOPPED 21/163
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 956 NOTICES FOR 95,600 OZ 2.973 TONNES
total notices so far: 17,081 contracts for 1,708,100 OR 53.129 tonnes)
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 14,258 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 71.290 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $19.85 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.09 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.44 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A DEPOSIT OF 0.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SL
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.057 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 556 CONTRACTS TO 137,944 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS/RAID OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 756 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A GOOD 200 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING MONDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE AND THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 627 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A GOOD 200 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 627 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 756 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.30.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A HUGE 627 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.30) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH
WE HAD A GOOD 200 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 90,000 OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ:
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 74.110 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 87.155 MILLION OZ./
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (200 CONTRACTS)/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 627 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 32 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAYS, total 2658 contracts: OR 13,290 MILLION OZ (296 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.290 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 13.290 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 556 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD 200 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 200 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND NOW MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 74.225 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 87.155 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (627 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (MONDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2289 OI CONTRACTS TO 440,560 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A STRONG 869 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (2,289 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $115.00 IN PRICE MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..
WE PREVIOUSLY HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
AND NOW MAY:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 53.334 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.55 TONNES//NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 54.884 TONES WHICH IS HUGE!!
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $115.00 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4514 OI CONTRACTS (14.04 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AS WELL AS THE SAME FOR APRIL AND NOW MAY….. A MONSTROUS 54.884 TONNES DESPITE IT BEING AN OFF MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2225 CONTRACT:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 440,560/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 137,944 CONTRACTS!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4514 CONTRACTS WITH 3153 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2225 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4514 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED AND CRIMINAL 24,745 CONTRACTS ISSUED. THIS REPRESENTS THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE T.A.S ISSUANCED AVERAGING 30,000+ AND THUS WE WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ONE TOMORROW AS THE CROOKS RELOAD THEIR AMMUNITION! SEEMS THAT THEIR RAID WAS A TOTAL FAILURE!!
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2225 CONTRACT) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3158 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4514 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 53.334 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES OUR 2.444 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR MAY 13 ISSUANCE OF 1.55 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL 54.884
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 54.884 TONNES OF GOLD.(INCLUDES QUEUE JUMP AND EX FOR RISK)
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION BUT, AS WE HAD 1)A $115.00 COMEX PRICE LOSS.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT LOSS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG GAIN OF 5383 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (2225 CONTRACTS)/// MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 24,745 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 10,735 CONTRACTS OR 1,073,500 OZ OR 33.390 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1192 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 33.390 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 33.390 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.940% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 33.390 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 556 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,944 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 200 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 309 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 556 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 756 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.30 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.940 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.30 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.63 PTS OR 0.17%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 470.93 PTS OR 2.00%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 539.00 PTS OR 1.43% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .52%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1991 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1953 / Oil UP TO 62.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.98 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1991 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.1953 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2289 CONTRACTS TO 440,560 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $115.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT, HUGE PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2225 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.55 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY IS NOW 1.55 TONNES OF GOLD. IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST THREE PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
AND NOW WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
MAY: 1 ISSUED SO FAR FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ OR 1.55 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!
DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4514 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUED TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. HOWEVER TODAY’S NUMBER IS ANOTHER HUMDINGER AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 24,745 T.A.S. FOLLOWING HUGE ISSUANCES DURING OUR LAST 3 TRADING DAYS. . THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER BY FAR IN COMEX HISTORY WITH FRIDAY’S BEING THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED! NATURALLY THAT SIGNALS THAT WE WILL WITNESS CONTINUAL RAIDS AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IF HISTORY SERVES US WELL, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER 1 MEGA MEGA ISSUANCE… (FROM JANUARY 2025 THROUGH TO MARCH 2025 WE HAD THESE 5 MEGA MEGA 30,000+ ISSUANCES WHICH DISTORTED OPEN INTEREST GREATLY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE// TUESDAY AT 2.444TONNES, THIS MONTH WE HAVE RECORDED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY AT 6.4 TONNES.
THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 54.884 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP AND OUR INITIAL 1.55 TONNES EX FOR RISK!)
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 221 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2225 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /JUNE 2225 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2225 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
- SOME LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
- ZERO SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED, 24,745 FOLLOWING LAST FRIDAY’S 45,706 CONTRACTS AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SECOND HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE IN COMEX HISTORY.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY:
INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.4634 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 7 (A RECORD) + ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP MAY 9 OF 0.534 TONNES + MAY 12 AT .5132 TONNES _ TODAY;S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.444 TONNES PLUS 1.55 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 54.884 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: STANDING NOW 53.334 TONNES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING) + 1.55 TONNES EX FOR RISK EQUALS 54.884 TONNES!!
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A MAMMOTH $115.00/ /)BUT THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE NOW SUCCEEDING AS GOLD ATTEMPTED TO BREACH THAT 3400 DOLLAR BARRIER AGAIN THURSDAY TRADING. IT IS NOW TRADING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WELL BELOW TO THAT LEVEL AT $3,227.00
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.55 TONNES OF GOLD. WE NOW HAVE 6 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. AND AS ALWAYS THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MONTH; FINAL GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// MAY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 14.04 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. WE HAD A STRONG 786 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 78,600 OZ OR 2.444 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US SIMPLE MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.334 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S (MAY 13) EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1.55 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 54.884
THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 54.884 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $115.00
WE HAD A HUGE 869 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4514 CONTRACTS OR 451,400 0Z (14.04 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 381,812. contracts: strong volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
MAY
// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
MAY 13
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | . withdrawals:2 i) Out of Brinks 4822.65 oz 150 kilobars) ii) Out of JPMorgan 96,453.000 oz (3,000 kilobars) total weight 101,295.650 oz 3.150 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 2) entries: i) Into Asahia 208,531.466 oz 6486 kilobars) ii) Into JPMorgan: 42,084.218 oz (1309 kilobars) total weight: 254,634.978 oz in tonnes: 7.795 tonnes 7.795 kilobars xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 956 notice(s) 95,600 OZ 2.973 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 66 contracts 6600 OZ 0.2052 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 17,081 notices 1,708,100 oz 53.129 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 2 customer entries
2) entries:
i) Into Asahia 208,531.466 oz 6486 kilobars)
ii) Into JPMorgan: 42,084.218 oz (1309 kilobars)
total weight: 254,634.978 oz
in tonnes: 7.795 tonnes
7.795 kilobars
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:2
i) Out of Brinks 4822.65 oz
150 kilobars)
ii) Out of JPMorgan 96,453.000 oz
(3,000 kilobars)
total weight 101,295.650 oz
3.150 tonnes
adjustments: 1//customer to dealer
a) JPMorgan 14,493.693 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 1016 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 623 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 163 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 786 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE WITNESS A STRONG 78,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP FOR 2.444 TONNES.
JUNE LOST 22,043 CONTRACTS TO 224,527. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH. THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS LOOKING AT JUNE OI.
JULY GAINED 1181 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1604
We had 163 contracts filed for today representing 16300 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 4 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 956 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 28 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,081 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1016 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (956 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,714700 OZ OR 53.334 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (17,081 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (1016 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (956 x 100 oz) which equals 1,714,000 OZ OR 53.334 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 53.334 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,197,294.559 oz 68.34 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,270,532.497 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,676,071.935: or 674.21 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,544,460.562 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,478,574oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 605.86tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
MAY 12
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 withdrawal entries i) Out of CNT 1199,780.669 oz ii) Out of Delaware: 44,489.330 oz iii) Out of Loomis: 600,213.600 oz total withdrawal 1,844,482.998 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries/dealer |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 deposit entry//customer side/eligible i) Into Asahi: 606,135.200 oz total deposit weight: 606,135.200 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 570 contract (2.860 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 14,258 Contracts (71.290 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
0 entries/dealer
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 deposit entry//customer side/eligible
i) Into Asahi: 606,135.200 oz
total deposit weight: 606,135.200 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
3 withdrawal entries
i) Out of CNT 1199,780.669 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 44,489.330 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 600,213.600 oz
total withdrawal 1,844,482.998 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 217.184million oz/503.481 oz million or 43.09%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 167.509 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 503.481Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 580 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 540 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 558 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 90,000 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR TODAY. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 26 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3120 CONTRACTS. JUNE OI REFUSES TO LIQUIDATE
AS IT IS NOW THE FRONT MONTH.
JULY GAINED 237 CONTRACTS UP TO 106,540
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 or 0.005 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 66,803 good//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,258 X5,000 oz = 71.258 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (588) AND the number of notices served upon today (1 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (14,258) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(588) minus number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 74.225 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 87.155 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 87.155 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 167.509million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 937.94 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 448.783 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2, EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Free trade benefits
On the basis that the consumer is king, free trade is obviously best. But if the producer is king, protectionism is rife. Businesses lobby governments, and the consumer is ill-served.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 13∙Paid |
We should applaud Scott Bessent for returning a sense of perspective to US—Chinese trade relations. An economic crisis, not for China as many think but for the US and its dollar has at least been deferred. The reactions in markets were entirely rational, not least for gold values. The dollar crisis is not over, but Bessent has at least bought some time. The dollar’s sigh of relief measured by gold might be described as being almost audible.
This article explains why US tariff policy is both misguided and dangerous. It debunks the belief that protectionist tariffs are necessary. And the US’s trade deficit is not going to disappear, because it is driven by inflationary funding of the budget deficit.
The theory of comparative advantage
It was economist David Ricardo who originally expressed the benefits of free trade, in his theory of comparative advantage. To illustrate the point, in his Principals of Political Economy he used trade between two countries as an example: Portugal, which produced cloth and wine both exported to England, and England which produced only cloth. He argued that free trade would lead to Portugal increasing its wine production to satisfy English demand and even if it was marginally better at producing cloth than England, assuming that trade between the two balanced, the limitations of capital, labour, and a balance of payments would lead to Portugal’s wine production being enhanced relative to its production of cloth.
Other than the obvious, that Portugal has a better a better climate for wine production than England, there are several suppositions involved with respect to the balance between cloth production which apply to international trade today. As already mentioned, it includes a simplistic trade model where imports and exports between both nations balance. Capital in the form of credit and labour skills in Portugal are assumed to be mobile. There is no subcontracting to other countries. Labour productivity differences is another variable assumed out of the equation. It also includes an assumption that commodity input costs are the same or similar.
The favourite phrase of economists, that all else being equal, ignores much.
The comparison today is between America or Europe and the Far East, which has led to substantial contracting out of production or elements of it from higher cost centres to lower ones. Time to market from drawing board to final output is also considerably less in the Far East, and time is money. American and European corporations have set up factories in China for this reason. We can see that Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage might be too simple a model for trade conditions today.
But it is wrong to ditch it entirely. Until relatively recently, Germany and Japan ran export surpluses despite their currencies rising inexorably on the back of export success. The world bought Mercedes and Toyota motor cars, not because they were cheap but because they were and still are very good. They still outcompete American and other European manufacturers, who have failed to innovate their products sufficiently.
The only way to ensure that domestic production is competitive internationally is to produce a better package: in Ricardo’s example, some Portuguese cloth manufacturers could still have sold cloth to England competitively. But an American manufacturer selling product to China has a significant cost hurdle, a huge mountain to climb. But the mountain is huge because American producers have failed to innovate in their own back yard, preferring to invest abroad instead. That is the lesson from Germany’s highly successful mittelstand. That is, before Germany swapped marks for euros.
Let’s imagine for a moment that a US company decides to invest in manufacturing in America. Automation takes differences of human productivity out of the equation, so that manufacturing cost differences can be minimised. There is no reason that distribution costs should be any different for locally manufactured goods compared with imports.
Fixed costs become a problem. Time to market, including planning laws, the cost of land, and time taken to build factories and install plant are considerably greater in America and Europe than elsewhere. But other than this last factor, by manufacturing at scale it should be possible for the US and Europe to enhance exports to global markets.
Some manufacturers have achieved it, mostly smaller niche producers of components and goods. It is the large corporations in the main which have failed to produce goods in their countries of origin. But instead of responding to the production challenge, businesses lobby governments for protection. And governments in Europe and America resort to tariffs and other trade obstacles.
Conclusion: it is wrong to argue that China et al are competing unfairly. It is US and European multinationals that are the problem. Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage still holds. Therefore, the alliance between big business and government taking anti-competitive measures is the villain.
The balance of trade in Ricardo’s time was settled in gold or acceptable gold substitutes, which ensured that nations did not trade beyond their resources. That is no longer the case. When one nation debauches its currency by running a deficit financed by inflationary means (i.e. not backed by savings), inevitably the budget deficit feeds into a trade deficit.
Therefore, the deficit on trade experienced by America where savings are deteriorating, means that it is joined at the hip to the $2 trillion budget deficit. No number of tariffs and other forms of import controls can change that.
Being a tax on consumers, tariffs tend to raise prices. And when the general level of prices increases, it is the same thing as the purchasing power of the national currency declining. This is why Trump’s tariffs led to the price of gold rising expressed in depreciating dollars. It was entirely rational.
Now that a more sensible approach to imports from China has been negotiated by Scott Bessant, the pressure on a declining dollar has been reduced, and gold backed off nearly $200. Again, this market response is rational. But almost immediately, commentators have assumed that the US might not be heading into a recession after all — a wholly irrational conclusion.
The false input of a budget deficit amounting to 7% of GDP means that private sector GDP is already contracting and has been for several years. A declining private sector leads to falling tax revenues and rising welfare costs, increasing the budget deficit. The relief from outlandish tariffs is temporary. The debt trap is more permanent, which is why the dollar is still in crisis
.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Brien Lundin: China deal creates opportunities for gold shorts and longs
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-05-12 13:47 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities
Metairie, Louisiana
Monday, May 12, 2025
I haven’t heard gold mentioned so much in the mainstream financial media at any other point in this new gold bull market.
At every market update on CNBC, for example, it seems the announcer is leading off with a note that gold has posted another $100 day. The metal has never before enjoyed such coverage.
The reason, of course, is because gold is down $100 today, instead of rising that much.
.Maybe I’m an oversensitive gold bug, but it does seem like the Wall Street talking heads are relishing this selloff in gold that’s come immediately in the wake of President Trump’s announced “deal” with China.
This deal, such as it is, essentially postpones for 90 days the most onerous tariff rates that Trump was using as a cudgel to bring China to the table. In the meantime, however, the administration agreed to have U.S. consumers pay 30% more while Chinese buyers pay just 10% in tariffs. …
END
On LFTV, Maguire and Schectman agree that gold is money forever
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-05-11 08:39 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:38a ET Sunday, May 11, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Coin and bullion dealer Miles Franklin’s Andy Schectman is London metals trader Andrew Maguire’s guest on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live From the Vault” program, and they discuss how gold has preserved wealth through centuries of monetary and political upheaval.
They also discuss the developing world’s challenge to the pricing of gold by derivatives in Western markets, a challenge that is leading to a worldwide revaluation of gold.
The program is 52 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
U.S. Global’s Frank Holmes: Basel III makes it official that gold is money again
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-05-11 08:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Frank Holmes
U.S. Global Investors, San Antonio, Texas
Friday, May 9, 2025
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks — and now the U.S. banking system — are finally catching up.
As of July 1, 2025, gold will officially be classified as a Tier 1, high-quality liquid asset under the Basel III banking regulations. That means U.S. banks can count physical gold at 100% of its market value toward their core capital reserves.
No longer will gold be marked down by 50% as a “Tier 3” asset, as it was under the old rules.
This is a seismic shift in how regulators perceive gold, and it’s a long-overdue recognition of what many of us have known for decades: Gold is money. And it’s the kind of money you want to own when the world is on fire. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
* * *
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 222
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//CATTLE
US Cattle Futures Hit New Highs After Mexican Beef Imports Halted To Stop “Pest Invasion”
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 04:40 PM
Feeder cattle futures in Chicago surged to a record high on Monday after U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an immediate suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from southern border land ports. The move comes in response to the spread of the flesh-eating New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico—a parasitic threat deemed a national security risk due to its potential to devastate already tight U.S. cattle supplies.
“Due to the threat of New World Screwworm I am announcing the suspension of live cattle, horse, & bison imports through U.S. southern border ports of entry effective immediately,” Rollins wrote on X.
She warned: “The last time this devastating pest invaded America, it took 30 years for our cattle industry to recover. This cannot happen again.”
.com/SecRollins/status/1921637437362811164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1921637437362811164%7Ctwgr%5E61d2018aa9
“The protection of our animals and safety of our nation’s food supply is a national security issue of the utmost importance. Once we see increased surveillance and eradication efforts, and the positive results of those actions, we remain committed to opening the border for livestock trade. This is not about politics or punishment of Mexico, rather it is about food and animal safety,” Rollins wrote in a press release.
She said NWS has been detected in remote farms with minimal cattle movement around Oaxaca and Veracruz—about 700 miles away from the U.S.-Mexico border.
Via Breeauna Sagdal, Senior Writer and Research Fellow at The Beef Initiative…
Import restrictions sent feeder cattle futures to a record high of $3.05 per pound in Chicago. Contracts are up more than 15% this year.
“Futures markets are likely to begin pricing in greater supply risk for later in the year,” analysts from Steiner Consulting Group wrote in a note to clients.
At the start of the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) annual Cattle Inventory report revealed that the nation’s cattle supply had fallen to a 73-year low, totaling about 86.6 million head.
At the supermarket, USDA data from the end of March showed that the average price for a pound of ground beef reached another record high of $5.79.
During last week’s earnings call, Tyson Foods executive Brady Stewart, who oversees the company’s beef and pork supply chains, suggested the U.S. cattle herd may be nearing a bottom—potentially signaling the start of a rebuilding cycle. However, Tyson has not yet updated its guidance following the import restrictions imposed on Sunday.
Support your local ranchers and break free from the industrial food complex. Don’t be fooled by “Product of USA” labels stamped on imported beef from overseas. It’s time to buy American-raised meat and know exactly where your food comes from. Learn more here.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.63 PTS OR 0.17%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 470.93 PTS OR 2.00%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 539.00 PTS OR 1.43% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .52%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1991 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1953 / Oil UP TO 62.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.98 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1991 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.1953 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1991 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1953 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.63 PTS OR 0.17%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 539.00 PTS OR 2.00%
2. Nikkei closed UP 539.00 PTS OR 1.49%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.34// EURO RISES TO 1.1114 UP 19 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.449//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.56…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6685/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.690 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.297%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.448
3j Gold at $3257.65 Silver at: 33.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 20 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.50
3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.12// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.454% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8449 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9371 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.460 UP 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.901 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.983 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.80
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7285 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.207 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.809 DOWN 6 PTS
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2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Dip As Torrid Squeeze Pauses Ahead Of CPI Report
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 08:24 AM
US equity futures are modestly lower ahead of today’s CPI report, but well off session lows, as markets take a slight pause following yesterday’s surge and as trade war truce euphoria gives way to lingering concerns about inflation and economic growth. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.2% with Mag7 and Semis names weaker pre-mkt, pulling the index lower. UnitedHealth Group sank 10% in pre-market trading after suspending its 2025 outlook. In the latest trade war news, US reduced the tariff on ‘de minimis’ shipments from China, per Reuters, from 120% to 54%, while China reversed its ban on Boeing jets. Appetite for safer assets picked up again, with Treasury yields falling and gold prices on the rise. The dollar slipped after gaining more than 1.4% yesterday, its strongest day since Nov 6, 2024, the day after the election. Today’s macro data focus is on CPI where the YoY numbers are expected to remain flat MoM despite an acceleration in the MoM prints. Earnings prints are not expected to be market moving today.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks were mostly lower with the exception of NVDA (Tesla -0.3%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Microsoft -0.3%, Apple -0.3%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon +0.02%, Nvidia +0.2%). Coinbase Global (COIN) climbs 9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens May 19. UnitedHealth Group shares drop 10% after the health insurer suspended its 2025 outlook and said CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down for personal reasons, effective immediately. Here are some more notable premarket movers:
- 3D Systems (DDD) sinks 22% after the 3D-printer maker reported products revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) climbs 6% after the drug developer reported earnings per share for the second quarter that was ahead of Wall Street’s expectations.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH) drops 5% after BMO cut its recommendation on the solar energy equipment manufacturer to underperform, citing planned Federal Government tax changes as a headwind for residential solar.
- On Holding (ONON) rises 5% after the company nudged its sales growth forecast higher as demand for the Swiss sneaker maker’s high-priced footwear remained strong despite economic uncertainty.
- Pinterest (PINS) declines 2% after the Information reported Google may unveil next week a feature that shows images designed to give people ideas for fashion and other types of designs, citing a person familiar with the matter
- Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) tumbles 11% postmarket after the quantum computing firm’s 1Q revenue missed expectations.
- Other quantum computing stocks are down: Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) -3%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) -3%
The powerful surge in stocks following the US-China trade truce, which sent the S&P 3.3% higher and erasing all post-Liberation day losses, caught out bearish investors who are now left chasing the rally, as well as hedge funds that were mostly short US equities, according to strategists. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey — conducted before the US-China trade breakthrough — is “bearish enough to suggest pain trade modestly higher,” Michael Hartnett said. BBVA strategists said that hedge funds’ net leverage is near five-year lows and mostly short US equities, adding to the squeeze.
“Yesterday’s move was warranted,” said Andrea Gabellone, analyst at KBC Securities. “But I need more to get more fundamentally constructive.”
Still, Tuesday’s slight pullback suggests trade and economic concerns are lingering, despite the US-China truce. The dollar is a bit weaker, and gold is higher, as investors await April’s CPI number for a sense of whether Trump’s tariff back-and-forth is fueling inflation. Boeing will be in focus after China removed a ban on airlines taking delivery of its planes.
“The challenges are not over,” said Frederique Carrier, investment strategy head at RBC Wealth Management. “The de-escalation was a lot stronger than even the best hopes, but you have to remember that the US economy still faces average effective tariffs of more than 13%.”
There’s also plenty from strategists to digest. Goldman’s David Kostin raised his 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 6,500 from 6,200, implying a gain of about 11%. But he’s still somewhat cautious, seeing an “impending slowdown in economic and earnings growth.” Meanwhile, the market rebound prompted Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, to cut US stocks to neutral from attractive, saying the risk-reward was now more balanced. Uncertainty is still high, he wrote in a note on Tuesday, and investors will focus on whether a lasting trade agreement can be forged between the two countries.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%. Health care stocks are among the biggest gainers, with Bayer shares rising 8% after earnings beat expectations. Insurance names provide a drag after disappointing numbers from Munich Re. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Renewable energy stocks rally in Europe on Tuesday after US House Republicans proposed a phase-out of incentives to develop clean-energy projects that was better than feared, according to analysts
- Bayer shares jump as much as 10%, the most since August, after the German conglomerate reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for the first quarter
- Grifols gains as much as 6.5% after the the Spanish blood-plasma company delivers results above expectations in the first quarter and maintains its full-year guidance
- Entain rises as much as 6.3% in London after UBS raised its recommendation to buy, saying the bookmaker has been steadily progressing operationally over the past year, yet the shares have underperformed the sector
- RS Group rises as much as 7.5% as BofA Global Research raises its recommendation on the electronics distributor to buy due to an automation recovery and cost savings that support margins
- Munich Re falls as much as 5.4% after first-quarter profit slumped because of claims linked to the Los Angeles wildfires and prices for renewals declined
- Hannover Re shares declined 3.8%, the second-worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer reported what JPMorgan says are “not a particularly pretty set of numbers”
- DCC shares drop as much as 4.9%, the biggest fallers in the FTSE 100 Index, after the conglomerate’s earnings fell short of expectations, with analysts pointing to weakness in its technology business due to weak demand
- GEA Group drops as much as as 3.6% following a double-downgrade to underperform from buy at BofA, which cites a full valuation and weaker food and beverage capex cycle in the firm’s major markets
- Fraport shares fall as much as 4.7%, the most in five weeks. Higher costs in Aviation and a one-off impact from security drove a miss on Ebitda in the first quarter for the operator of Frankfurt Airport
- Alfen slumps as much as 26%, the most since June 2024, after the energy equipment company warned that its full-year revenue is likely to come in at the lower end of the current guidance range
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks eked out gains, with sentiment getting a boost after the world’s two largest economies agreed to a trade truce. Meanwhile, shares in Hong Kong fell after a rally on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1%, before trimming its gains to 0.2%. TSMC, Recruit and Toyota were major contributors to the gauge’s gains. Japanese shares were among the biggest gainers in the region, with the Topix index posting its longest winning streak in nearly 16 years. Benchmarks also advanced in Taiwan and Malaysia. Still, shares fell in Hong Kong as the trade agreement is seen as reducing Beijing’s need to announce any large stimulus. Stocks in mainland China pared early gains to trade little changed. Meanwhile, gauges in India also fell as the tech sector’s rally cooled.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped as much as 0.3% as positioning in the options market continued to lean against the currency. Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt, head of FX and corporate research at Danske Bank A/S, said the greenback’s 1% surge on Monday was “all about the unwind of the post-Liberation day trades” even though unlike other assets which have recovered all losses since Liberation Day, the dollar remains the only major asset class that is decidedly lower. The Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Aussie dollar are the best performing G-10 currencies. The Canadian dollar lags with a 0.1% fall against the greenback.
Treasuries also reversed some of the Monday moves. The policy-sensitive US two-year yield fell three basis points after surging 12 basis points amid speculation the tariff truce would bolster the world’s biggest economy. 10-year yields dropped 3 bps to 4.45% and again reversing some of Monday’s move. Bunds fall, with German 10-year yields rising 3 bps. UK 10-year borrowing costs add 2 bps but short end yields are lower after British businesses cut jobs for a third straight month in April.
In commodities, US crude WTI futures rise 0.5% to $62.25. Spot gold has also pared some of Monday’s fall, rising $18 to around $3,254/oz.
Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for April. Otherwise, we also got UK unemployment for March and the German ZEW survey for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Escriva, Makhlouf and Knot, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Pill.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.2%,
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%,
- Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 +0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.45%
- VIX +0.3 points at 18.72
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 123
Top Overnight News
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the European Union suffers from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering trade negotiations, downplaying the possibility of a quick agreement with the US’s largest trading relationship. “I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,” said Bessent. BBG
- The US imported a record $53bn of products used in the pharmaceuticals and medical industry in March as companies rushed to build stockpiles in case Trump hits the sector with tariffs. Imports of pharma products soared around 160% in March from the same month the previous year, and almost doubled from Feb, reaching the highest on Census Bureau records stretching back to 2002. FT
- A House Republican tax bill would raise the SALT cap to $30,000 without increasing taxes on the wealthy. It needs almost unanimous party support to pass. The plan proposes to significantly increase taxes on the richest US universities. BBG
- China removed a month-long ban on Boeing deliveries by airlines, people familiar said, after the trade-talk breakthrough with the US. Officials have started to tell local carriers and government agencies that the restrictions no longer apply. BBG
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain: RTRS
- India proposed tariffs on some American goods in its first retaliation against Trump’s duties on steel and aluminum, even as trade talks continue. BBG
- British businesses cut jobs for a third straight month in April. Wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 5.6% in the first quarter, while the unemployment rate ticked higher. BBG
- The U.S. Court of International Trade is hearing oral arguments Tuesday in a lawsuit challenging Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping new tariffs last month, before suspending the highest ones on about 60 trading partners for 90 days. Politico
- U.S. new-vehicle prices surged in April, data released on Monday showed, a sign that the effects of President Donald Trump’s auto-tariff measures are rippling through the car market. RTRS
- BofA Fund Manager Survey (pre-US/China trade update): Global fund managers most underweight US dollars in May since 2006 61% of fund managers see soft landing for the economy versus 37% in April; 26% see hard landing, down from 49% in April. Prior to US/China Geneva talks, fund managers saw US tariffs on China goods at 37%. “Positive US-China trade war ceasefire prevents recession/credit event”: BofA
Trade/Tariffs
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
- USTR Greer said the outcome of US-China tariffs talks was seen as pragmatic, while he added China has agreed to remove countermeasures and noted if things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.
- Chinese President Xi said there are no winners in tariff wars and trade wars, while he added that only when various countries work together can they maintain world peace, stability and promote global development. Xi said bullying and tyranny will only isolate oneself, as well as noted that China supports Latin America and the Caribbean in expanding their influence in the multilateral arena with China willing to deepen cooperation with Latin America in infrastructure, agriculture, food, energy and minerals.
- China’s Foreign Ministry, on US fentanyl tariffs, says China has repeatedly said it is a US issue. US is ignoring China’s good will. Responsibility lies with the US.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent says talks with China in Geneva resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation; can proceed from here and have a very good framework. When asked if he feels good about the progress of other deals, he responds “yes”; references Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan. Thinks the US-Europe deal may be a bit slower, cites regional divides among the EU.
- Canadian PM Carney and UK PM Starmer agreed to strengthen trade, commercial and defence ties in a phone call, according to a statement from Canada.
- China removes ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after US trade truce, via Bloomberg.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate. ASX 200 edged higher amid outperformance in tech and energy but with further advances contained by weakness in defensives and gold miners. Nikkei 225 rallied to above the 38,000 level following the cooling in US-China trade tensions but with the index off intraday highs amid some profit-taking and a slight pullback in USD/JPY, while BoJ rhetoric continued to signal future hikes if prices and the economy improved. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the de-escalation in the US-China trade war which the Hong Kong benchmark already had its opportunity to react to yesterday, while questions lingered on what will happen during the 90-day reprieve as the trade deficit remains and the current 30% tariff on Chinese goods still a relatively high level.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the April 30th-May 1st meeting stated that one member said the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices, while a member said the BoJ must make policy decisions without preconception as uncertainty over the outlook is very high. There was also the opinion of no change to the BoJ’s rate-hike stance as real interest rates are deeply negative, but risks must be scrutinised and the BoJ has little choice but to take a wait-and-see stance until developments surrounding US trade policy stabilise to some extent. Furthermore, a member said that uncertainty surrounding economy and price outlook is high and the likelihood of achieving price goal is not as high as in the past, while it was stated that the BoJ will enter a temporary pause in rate hikes but shouldn’t slide into excessive pessimism and must guide policy nimbly and flexibly.
- Nissan (7201 JT) 2024/2025 (JPY): operating profit 69.8bln (-87.7%), net -670.90bln (prev. 426.65bln), Revenue 12.63tln (prev. 12.69tln); withholds FY guidance due to tariffs, will consolidate production plants to 10 from 17. Nissan impact on Renault (RNO FP) Q1 net estimated at EUR 2.2bln loss.
- JD.com (JD/9618 HK) Q1 (USD): EPS 1.16 (exp. 1.05), Revenue 41.5bln (exp. 40.2bln); Co. notes of improving consumer sentiment.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly, but modestly firmer as markets cool a touch from the significant upside seen in the prior session. Price action this morning has been relatively rangebound, given the lack of fresh catalysts thus far. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Basic Resources leads, followed closely by Retail and Travel & Leisure to complete the top three. US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%, RTY -0.5%) are modestly in negative territory, as the complex gives back some of the prior day’s US-China induced upside. Focus this morning has been on Bloomberg reporting which suggests China is lifting its ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after the US-China tariff pause. BlackRock (BLK) CEO said it still sees global investors overweighting the US; adds that US deficits are still an issue.
Top European News
- Barclaycard UK April Consumer Spending rose 4.5% Y/Y, which was the biggest increase since June 2023.
- ECB strategy review will largely endorse past policies, including QE, despite some policymakers’ criticisms, while the ECB is to keep reference to ‘forceful action’ when rates and inflation are low following the review, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- ECB’s Makhlouf says given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration.
- BoE’s Chief Economist Pill says should not assume that latest MPR forecasts is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve; worried about potential risks to inflation He does see risk of second round effects. Remain concerned that they’ve seen a structural change in price and wage setting within the UK. The response of monetary policy to ensure they get inflation back to target may need to be more persistent.
FX
- DXY gives back some of Monday’s trade-induced gains. Desks flag the uncertainty rising from the 90-day period in which both the US and China slashed their respective retaliatory tariffs by 115 bps each. Elsewhere on the docket, the highlight will be US CPI, whereby analysts expect US headline CPI to rise +0.3% M/M in April (prev. -0.1%). DXY currently resides in a narrow 101.46-101.73 range, well within yesterday’s range, with the 50 DMA today at 101.86.
- EUR is relatively stable and moving in tandem with the Dollar with little action seen on ECB commentary in which ECB’s Makhlouf said given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration, meanwhile, ECB’s Escriva said they must be humble in assessing the current situation, and ECB’s Nagel said they shouldn’t overreact to individual announcements. Reuters sources overnight suggested the ECB strategy review will largely endorse past policies, including QE, despite some policymakers’ criticisms, while the ECB is to keep reference to ‘forceful action’ when rates and inflation are low following the review. On the data front, May ZEW survey for Germany saw a jump in economic sentiment but an unexpected fall in current conditions – but no real follow through to the EUR.
- Haven FX are clawing back some lost ground as markets take a breather following yesterday’s US-China euphoria, and following the aforementioned punchier language from Chian this morning coupled with the accompanying uncertainty provided by the 90-day de-escalation. USD/JPY resides towards the bottom of a 147.65-148.48 range, with the 50 DMA seen at 146.27 today.
- GBP is buoyed by the softer Dollar, with FX markets gaining some composure after Monday’s surge in the Buck. UK jobs data this morning did little to shift the dial, with no reaction seen post-release: overall, the labour market continues to soften but at a relatively moderate rate. GBP/USD currently trades in a 1.3166-1.3216 range, well within Monday’s 1.3137-1.3299 parameter.
- Antipodeans benefit from the broadly softer Dollar despite a more cautious risk tone across the markets.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2188 (Prev. 7.2066).
Fixed Income
- USTs are slightly firmer with the risk tone tepid and fixed easing from the lows seen on Monday as the dust settles following tariff announcements between the US and China. At the top-end of a 110-02 to 110-08 band. Attention for USTs is firmly on the April CPI print. A release that is perhaps slightly less pertinent given the recent US-China progress; however, it will still be scrutinised for insight into the Fed’s deliberations. After the data we have remarks from President Trump at 15:00BST in the Middle East. Reports in Axios on Monday suggested he was aiming to return with over a USD 1tln worth of deals.
- Bunds are a touch softer and, in contrast to USTs, has eked out a marginal new WTD trough at 129.43. However, despite this, the narrative is much the same as the benchmark consolidates from Monday’s marked sell off and await fresh insight on EU-US talks. On that, US Treasury Secretary Bessent was out this morning with the same type of language on the EU, describing the progress as being a little slower. On the data front, May ZEW survey for Germany saw a jump in economic sentiment but an unexpected fall in current conditions – but no real follow through to Bund price action.
- Gilts are the marginal underperformer, and in a similar fashion to Bunds the benchmark has made a new WTD low at 91.51 vs 91.63 on Monday. Gapped lower by 13 ticks at the open and then slipped a bit further to the above base. An open that followed the latest UK jobs data which, in summary, showed that the labour market continues to cool but at a gradual pace with the rate of wage growth slowing but still at a level that the MPC is unlikely to regard as being consistent with the inflation target.
- Netherlands sells EUR 1.98bln vs exp. EUR 1.0-2.0bln 2.00% 2054 DSL: average yield 3.228%.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 0.625% 2045 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.19x (prev. 3.48x) & real yield 2.23% (prev. 1.732%).
- Italy sells EUR 7.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.0-7.50bln 2.65% 2028, 3.25% 2032 & 4.45% 2043 BTP.
- Germany sells EUR 3.401bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 1.70% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.2x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 1.94% (prev. 1.67%), retention 24.42% (prev. 23.72%).
Commodities
- Crude has traded choppily, and off the highs seen following the US-China trade deal announcement. Currently WTI & Brent are higher by around USD 0.20/bbl as traders await US CPI and updates from US President Trump who is set to give some remarks at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT. Brent Jul’25 sat in a busy USD 64.63-65.12/bbl range for most of the European morning, but has recently climbed out of the top-end of that range to print a peak at USD 65.35/bbl.
- Precious metals are firmer across the board, with some outperformance in spot silver as the complex benefits from the softer Dollar. Spot gold is currently higher by around USD 18/oz, and trades in a USD 3,216.06-3,265.51/oz range.
- Base metals are broadly in positive territory, benefiting from the relatively softer Dollar and mostly positive risk-tone overnight. 3M LME Copper currently trades in a USD 9,488.3-9,572.45/t range.
- China crude oil supply to China set to hold steady at around 47.5mln barrels in June, via Reuters citing sources.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the State Department is sanctioning three Iranian nationals and one Iranian entity with ties to Iran’s organisation of defensive innovation and research.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov discussed with his Turkish counterpart issues related to May 15th direct talks with Ukraine.
- US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio discussed a path to peace and a ceasefire in Ukraine with French, German, Polish and Ukrainian foreign ministers as well as the EU High Representative.
- Senior Kyiv Official says Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet Russian President Putin, and not other members of the Russian delegation on Thursday in Turkey.
US Event Calendar
- 6:00 am: Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism 95.8, est. 95, prior 97.4
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Index NSA, est. 320.91, prior 319.8
- 8:30 am: Apr CPI Core Index SA, est. 326.63, prior 325.66
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Good evening from the West Coast of the US. A lot of miles have been travelled for me and for markets in the last 24 hours, and as I questioned in yesterday’s CoTD (link here), will the last 6 weeks go down in the annals the same way as series 9 of Dallas back in the mid-1980s? This series was expunged from memories as a dream sequence of Pam Ewing, rendering the death of husband Bobby Ewing as just a nightmare. With both the US and China slashing their tariff rates by 115 percentage points, with the US rate on China down from 145% to 30% and China’s rate on the US falling from 125% to 10%, we’re almost back to pre-Liberation Day levels. And if you include the fact that 20pp of the 30% US levy is around fentanyl, and could surely be negotiated down with the current momentum, China is now back in the pack with regards to pure trade tariffs on other countries.
The dramatic reduction in tariffs is only a temporary one for 90 days, but as far as markets are concerned, there’s now a belief that the worst of the trade war has passed, and that the trend is now towards de-escalation. So that unleashed a phenomenal rally across multiple asset classes, with the S&P 500 (+3.26%) building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn, with 2 and 10yr US yields up +12.0bps and +9.3bps respectively.
There’s little doubt about how positive this news is, but the US is not out of the woods yet. Our US economists had already assumed a decent amount of de-escalation into their most recent assumptions, with an effective tariff rate of 15%. So that’s still not far from where we might net out given all we know after yesterday. Such an effective rate was consistent with a subdued, barely positive, level of US growth in H2. However, if the direction of travel is further tariff cuts then the risks are clearly back to the upside. For inflation, our economists suggest there is now some downside risks to our 3.6% core PCE forecast for this year. However, upside risks remain from sectoral tariffs and greater passthrough from tariffs to consumer prices in response to the broader weakening in the dollar. We maintain our view that the Fed will find it hard to ease in the near term and the first cut pencilled in for December remains the base case. See our US economists reaction to the news yesterday and how it might change their views here.
Yesterday’s announcement came around 8am London time, just as European markets were opening, and there was an immediate reaction in response. To be fair, futures were already positive thanks to the weekend newsflow. But there was then a fresh leap higher as the tariff reductions were well above market expectations. Indeed, Trump himself had said on Friday that “80% Tariff on China seems right!”, and he’d been talking about a 60% rate on the campaign trail. So the fact it was only 30% was greeted with a huge sigh of relief. The reversal came with few immediate concessions by China, beyond reversing retaliatory measures imposed since Liberation Day. However, Trump said that China agreed to “suspend and remove all of its non-monetary barriers” without offering specifics.
Looking forward, the mood music around the discussions also sounded very positive, and came in at the upside of market expectations. For instance, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that both sides agreed that they “do not want a generalized decoupling”, and that “as long as there is good faith effort, engagement and constructive dialog, then we will keep moving forward”. So that sounded a long way from the rhetoric of recent weeks, when tariffs moved above 100% and there were fears of a wider trade breakdown, with China describing the US’s tariff moves as a “joke”. Later on in the day, President Trump himself said “I’ll speak to President Xi, maybe at the end of the week”, so that again kept the door open to further communications.
Those headlines led to a continued unwind of the moves since Liberation Day, with the S&P 500 surging another +3.26%, its best daily performance since the original 90-day reciprocal tariff extension was announced on April 9 and its third best day in the last 5 years. The move means the index is now +3.05% above its level on Liberation Day, and only -4.88% beneath its all-time high from mid-February, which is remarkable given everything that’s happened in that time. Moreover, the latest advance leaves the index up more than +17% in just over a month, which is a pace we haven’t seen since Q2 2020 as markets were bouncing back from the aggressive Covid slump. That was supported by a huge rally for the Magnificent 7 (+5.67%). The NASDAQ (+4.35%) is now back in bull market territory and up +22.5% from its lows. And with equities surging back, the VIX index of volatility closed beneath 20pts for the first time since March.
This move back into US assets was clear on several metrics. In particular, the dollar index (+1.44%) posted its best daily performance since November, back when investors were reacting to the news of Trump’s election victory. Moreover, the rally in US equities was much more pronounced than elsewhere, with Europe’s STOXX 600 “only” up +1.21% on the day. And US credit spreads also tightened more aggressively than their European counterparts, with US HY spreads down -38bps on the day, whereas those in Europe were down -22bps. That now leaves US HY spreads at 305bps, clearly beneath their Liberation Day level of 334bps.
With investors pricing out a recession, the announcement also saw investors dial back their rate cut expectations over the rest of the year. For instance, futures moved to price just 56bps of Fed rate cuts by the December meeting, down -9.8bps on the day, and the fewest since February. We were at 131bps at the intraday low on April 7, shortly before the initial 90-day extension. In turn, that led to a big move higher for sovereign bond yields, with the 2yr Treasury (+12.0bps to 4.01%) closing above 4% for the first time since March. Meanwhile, the 10yr yield (+9.3bps) moved up by a smaller amount to 4.47%. Those moves were similar in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+8.6bps), OATs (+6.1bps) and BTPs (+6.8bps) all moved higher.
This shift was also echoed in commodity markets, where oil prices built on last week’s rebound as hopes grew for stronger global trade flows. For instance, Brent crude oil prices (+1.64%) were back up to $64.96/bbl, having closed at a 4-year low ($60.23) just a week earlier. In the meantime, gold prices (-2.66%) fell back to $3,236/oz, which came as the lower tariffs helped to reassure investors about inflationary pressures. Indeed, the 1yr US inflation swap plummeted by a huge -25.2bps on the day to 3.16%, which is the biggest daily decline since November 2022.
Looking forward, inflation will remain in the spotlight today, as we’ve got the US CPI release for April coming out. That’s the first to cover the period since Liberation Day, so it’ll be a good insight into how the tariffs are impacting consumer prices so far. However, the baseline expectations from our US economists is that the April tariffs won’t start showing up in consumer prices until June and the subsequent months. In terms of what to expect today, they forecast that headline CPI will come in at +0.26% on the month, with core CPI only a little bit higher at +0.29%. If realised, that would leave the year-on-year headline rate at +2.4%, and leave core CPI at +2.8%. Click here for more details and to sign up to their subsequent webinar.
Today should also see attention focus on US fiscal news, after Republicans unveiled a draft version of their tax bill yesterday. The House Ways and Means Committee are set to begin debating it today, and Trump yesterday called on Republicans to unify behind “THE ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”.
Overnight in Asia, there’s been a mixed performance as they react to the pause in the US-China trade conflict, with the risk-on move losing a bit of momentum. Japanese equities are doing particularly well, with the Nikkei (+1.78%) and the TOPIX (+1.28%) both advancing. Indeed, for the TOPIX, it marks a 13th consecutive increase for the first time since August 2009. Otherwise however, the gains have been more muted, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.42%) seeing a smaller increase, whilst in mainland China, the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and the CSI 300 (+0.03%) have only posted a modest advance. Meanwhile, there’ve been some more negative performances, with the KOSPI down -0.18%), and the Hang Seng is down -1.67%, which would end a run of 8 consecutive daily gains. The more risk-off tone has also been evident in the US, where futures on the S&P 500 have fallen -0.41% this morning, and 10yr Treasury yields (-2.0bps) are back down to 4.45%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for April. Otherwise, we’ll get UK unemployment for March and the German ZEW survey for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Escriva, Makhlouf and Knot, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Pill.
2b European opening report
US to cut minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, China lifts ban on Boeing deliveries – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 05:56 AM
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
- European bourses are modestly firmer while US futures dip into the red. Focus this morning has been on Bloomberg reporting, which suggests China is to lift its ban on Boeing deliveries after the US-China tariff pause.
- DXY takes a breather to the benefit of other G10s; Antipodeans lead.
- EGBs and Gilts hit marginal new WTD lows, USTs await CPI & Trump.
- A subdued Dollar provides some modest strength for XAU/base metals.
- Looking ahead, US CPI, Speakers including BoE’s Bailey & ECB’s Rehn.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
- USTR Greer said the outcome of US-China tariffs talks was seen as pragmatic, while he added China has agreed to remove countermeasures and noted if things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.
- Chinese President Xi said there are no winners in tariff wars and trade wars, while he added that only when various countries work together can they maintain world peace, stability and promote global development. Xi said bullying and tyranny will only isolate oneself, as well as noted that China supports Latin America and the Caribbean in expanding their influence in the multilateral arena with China willing to deepen cooperation with Latin America in infrastructure, agriculture, food, energy and minerals.
- China’s Foreign Ministry, on US fentanyl tariffs, says China has repeatedly said it is a US issue. US is ignoring China’s good will. Responsibility lies with the US.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent says talks with China in Geneva resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation; can proceed from here and have a very good framework. When asked if he feels good about the progress of other deals, he responds “yes”; references Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan. Thinks the US-Europe deal may be a bit slower, cites regional divides among the EU.
- Canadian PM Carney and UK PM Starmer agreed to strengthen trade, commercial and defence ties in a phone call, according to a statement from Canada.
- China removes ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after US trade truce, via Bloomberg.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly, but modestly firmer as markets cool a touch from the significant upside seen in the prior session. Price action this morning has been relatively rangebound, given the lack of fresh catalysts thus far.
- European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Basic Resources leads, followed closely by Retail and Travel & Leisure to complete the top three.
- US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%, RTY -0.5%) are modestly in negative territory, as the complex gives back some of the prior day’s US-China induced upside. Focus this morning has been on Bloomberg reporting which suggests China is lifting its ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after the US-China tariff pause.
- BlackRock (BLK) CEO said it still sees global investors overweighting the US; adds that US deficits are still an issue.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX
- DXY gives back some of Monday’s trade-induced gains. Desks flag the uncertainty rising from the 90-day period in which both the US and China slashed their respective retaliatory tariffs by 115 bps each. Elsewhere on the docket, the highlight will be US CPI, whereby analysts expect US headline CPI to rise +0.3% M/M in April (prev. -0.1%). DXY currently resides in a narrow 101.46-101.73 range, well within yesterday’s range, with the 50 DMA today at 101.86.
- EUR is relatively stable and moving in tandem with the Dollar with little action seen on ECB commentary in which ECB’s Makhlouf said given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration, meanwhile, ECB’s Escriva said they must be humble in assessing the current situation, and ECB’s Nagel said they shouldn’t overreact to individual announcements. Reuters sources overnight suggested the ECB strategy review will largely endorse past policies, including QE, despite some policymakers’ criticisms, while the ECB is to keep reference to ‘forceful action’ when rates and inflation are low following the review. On the data front, May ZEW survey for Germany saw a jump in economic sentiment but an unexpected fall in current conditions – but no real follow through to the EUR.
- Haven FX are clawing back some lost ground as markets take a breather following yesterday’s US-China euphoria, and following the aforementioned punchier language from Chian this morning coupled with the accompanying uncertainty provided by the 90-day de-escalation. USD/JPY resides towards the bottom of a 147.65-148.48 range, with the 50 DMA seen at 146.27 today.
- GBP is buoyed by the softer Dollar, with FX markets gaining some composure after Monday’s surge in the Buck. UK jobs data this morning did little to shift the dial, with no reaction seen post-release: overall, the labour market continues to soften but at a relatively moderate rate. GBP/USD currently trades in a 1.3166-1.3216 range, well within Monday’s 1.3137-1.3299 parameter.
- Antipodeans benefit from the broadly softer Dollar despite a more cautious risk tone across the markets.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2188 (Prev. 7.2066).
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2c Asian opening report
APAC stocks firmer following a strong handover; US to cut de minimis on China to 54% from 120% – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 01:29 AM
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate.
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
- DXY took a breather and gave back some of yesterday’s firm gains; 10yr UST futures traded rangebound after recently suffering from a lack of haven appeal
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.6% on Monday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, German ZEW, US CPI, Speakers include US President Trump, BoE’s Pill, Bailey & ECB’s Rehn, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Italy & Germany, Earnings from JD.Com, Intuitive Machines, On, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Bayer, K+S, Leg, Ferrovial & A2A.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks rallied following the positive trade developments between the US and China, which both agreed to cut tariffs on each other by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days in what was a much larger than expected roll back. The combined 145% US tariffs on China and China’s levies on US goods will drop to 30% and 10%, respectively. The announcement spurred global risk-on trade with upside in the Dollar, US equities, and crude, while havens sold off.
- SPX +3.26% at 5,844, NDX +4.02% at 20,868, DJI +2.81% at 42,410, RUT +3.42% at 2,092.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
- USTR Greer said the outcome of US-China tariffs talks was seen as pragmatic, while he added China has agreed to remove countermeasures and noted if things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up.
- Chinese President Xi said there are no winners in tariff wars and trade wars, while he added that only when various countries work together can they maintain world peace, stability and promote global development. Xi said bullying and tyranny will only isolate oneself, and noted that China supports Latin America and the Caribbean in expanding their influence in the multilateral arena with China willing to deepen cooperation with Latin America in infrastructure, agriculture, food, energy and minerals.
- Canadian PM Carney and UK PM Starmer agreed to strengthen trade, commercial and defence ties in a phone call, according to a statement from Canada.
- China removes ban on Boeing (BA) deliveries after US trade truce, via Bloomberg.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said tariffs would still have a stagflationary impulse and the temporary nature of the deal would weigh on the economy, while he added that the bar for action has to be high. Furthermore, he endorsed the waiting approach again due to uncertainty and said the Fed could afford to take time for policy decisions, according to NYT.
- Fed SLOOS stated US banks reported a drop in demand for C&I loans in Q1, while it was the weakest for large firms since Q3.
- WSJ’s Timiraos posted that Goldman Sachs shifted the timing of its next expected Fed cut to December from July, while it stated “In light of these developments and the meaningful easing in financial conditions over the last month, we are raising our 2025 growth forecast by 0.5pp to 1% Q4/Q4 and reducing our 12-month recession odds to 35%” and “lowered our core PCE inflation path to peak at 3.6% (vs. 3.8% previously)”.
- US President Trump posted “We are going to slash the cost of prescription drugs, and we will bring fairness to America. Drug prices will come down—We’re gonna cut out the middlemen and facilitate the direct sale of drugs at the most favored nation price directly to the American citizen!”
- US President Trump posted “This week the Republicans are meeting in the Tax, Energy, and Agriculture Committees on major pieces of “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL.”
- US House tax committee proposed to end consumer EV tax credit by end of year instead of 2032 and proposed to phase out of key clean energy tax credit (45y), with expiry in 2031, while it seeks to end in two years the ‘transferability’ of IRA tax credits that allow developers to sell credits to raise project funds. It was also reported that the House Republicans’ bill would exempt workers’ tips from income tax with exceptions and includes a tax break on overtime through 2028, while the SALT deduction cap would be increased to USD 30k for joint filers (prev. 10k), according to the bill text.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate.
- ASX 200 edged higher amid outperformance in tech and energy but with further advances contained by weakness in defensives and gold miners.
- Nikkei 225 rallied to above the 38,000 level following the cooling in US-China trade tensions but with the index off intraday highs amid some profit-taking and a slight pullback in USD/JPY, while BoJ rhetoric continued to signal future hikes if prices and the economy improved.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the de-escalation in the US-China trade war which the Hong Kong benchmark already had its opportunity to react to yesterday, while questions lingered on what will happen during the 90-day reprieve as the trade deficit remains and the current 30% tariff on Chinese goods still a relatively high level.
- US equity futures mildly pulled back following yesterday’s surge and with participants also awaiting the incoming US CPI data.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.6% on Monday.
FX
- DXY took a breather and gave back some of yesterday’s firm gains which were spurred by the de-escalation in the trade war following the US-China agreement to reduce tariffs by 115ppts on each other’s goods, which resulted in the largest gain in the DXY since November last year. Aside from trade headlines, updates were relatively light and the remarks from Fed officials provided little incrementally, while the attention now turns to US CPI data.
- EUR/USD saw some slight reprieve from the prior day’s selling pressure and just about returned to the 1.1100 handle, but with the rebound in the single currency limited following renewed criticism from US President Trump who stated the EU has been brutal on drug prices, was the most difficult on drug subsidies, and is nastier than China.
- GBP/USD gradually attempted to reclaim the 1.3200 status in quiet trade as the recent rhetoric from BoE officials provided little to shift to dial and with participants looking ahead to incoming UK employment and wages data.
- USD/JPY mildly pulled back following its recent ascent above the 148.00 level which was facilitated by haven outflows and as US yields climbed on the US-China trade war de-escalation, while the latest rhetoric from the BoJ continued to signal expectations for further hikes if the economy and prices improve.
- Antipodeans nursed some of their recent losses with the help of a firmer PBoC reference rate setting and the mostly positive risk environment.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2188 (Prev. 7.2066).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures traded rangebound after recently suffering from a lack of haven appeal but with downside cushioned by support near the 110.00 level.
- Bund futures languished around Monday’s lows after slipping beneath the 130.00 level with prices not helped ahead of incoming supply and ZEW data.
- 10yr JGB futures took a hit following the US-China trade war de-escalation and with demand also constrained after an uneventful BoJ Summary of Opinions release which noted that a member said the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices, while the results of the latest 30yr JGBs auction were mixed and showed a higher b/c but lower accepted prices.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were mildly lower after pulling back from the peaks seen in the aftermath of the US-China tariff rollback announcement, while there was little fresh in terms of energy-related catalysts and participants look ahead to whether the Ukraine-Russia talks will go ahead in Turkey later this week.
- Spot gold remained lacklustre after declining yesterday alongside the trade-related optimism and ahead of the latest US inflation data.
- Copper futures traded sideways after retreating yesterday despite the positive tariff developments with prices subdued by recent dollar strength.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin faded some of its recent gains with prices back beneath the USD 102k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the April 30th-May 1st meeting stated that one member said the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices, while a member said the BoJ must make policy decisions without preconception as uncertainty over the outlook is very high. There was also the opinion of no change to the BoJ’s rate-hike stance as real interest rates are deeply negative, but risks must be scrutinised and the BoJ has little choice but to take a wait-and-see stance until developments surrounding US trade policy stabilise to some extent. Furtheremore, a member said that uncertainty surrounding economy and price outlook is high and the likelihood of achieving price goal is not as high as in the past, while it was stated that the BoJ will enter a temporary pause in rate hikes but shouldn’t slide into excessive pessimism and must guide policy nimbly and flexibly.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May) 92.1 (Prev. 90.1)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Apr) -1.0 (Prev. -3.0)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Apr) 2.0 (Prev. 4.0)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the State Department is sanctioning three Iranian nationals and one Iranian entity with ties to Iran’s organisation of defensive innovation and research.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov discussed with his Turkish counterpart issues related to May 15th direct talks with Ukraine.
- US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio discussed a path to peace and a ceasefire in Ukraine with French, German, Polish and Ukrainian foreign ministers as well as the EU High Representative.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Taylor said erosion of business confidence in the UK has continued in REC and PMI surveys, while he added the tariff shock was bigger than anyone expected and there is a sense of precaution and concern. Furthermore, he said wage settlements data is coming in line with expectations for slower wage growth.
- Barclaycard UK April Consumer Spending rose 4.5% Y/Y, which was the biggest increase since June 2023.
- ECB strategy review will largely endorse past policies, including QE, despite some policymakers’ criticisms, while the ECB is to keep reference to ‘forceful action’ when rates and inflation are low following the review, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- ECB’s Escriva said they must be humble in assessing the current situation.
- ECB’s Nagel said they shouldn’t overreact to individual announcements.
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Apr) 6.8% (Prev. 0.9%)
- UK BRC April Total Retail Sales 7.0% (Prev. 1.1%)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
good news for Boeing. However China has still not released rare earth metals to the uSA
(zerohedge)
China Reverses Ban On Boeing Jet Deliveries After Trade Breakthrough With US
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 07:20 AM
China lifted a month-long ban on Boeing jet deliveries for all domestic carriers just one day after a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
Chinese officials instructed domestic carriers and government agencies at the start of the week that deliveries of US-made jets were allowed to resume. This decision coincides with a 90-day tariff truce, during which the U.S. slashed tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China cut import duties on US goods from 125% to 10%.
In April, the tit-for-tat trade war between the Trump administration and China led to Beijing’s non-tariff countermeasures, including Juneyao Airlines that delayed the delivery of a 787-9 Dreamliner.
Last week, ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s weekend meeting with Chinese counterparts for the first round of trade talks in Switzerland, a Bloomberg report specified that China Airlines placed an order for more than a dozen 777 planes. At the time, we asked if this was a “goodwill gesture” by Beijing ahead of the trade talks.
Trade talks have since de-escalated the tariff war.
Still, Goldman expects the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be around 15% – a generational high dating back to the 1930s.
China’s move to resume Boeing deliveries may provide a short-term boost for the sideways pattern shares have traded in for five years. Premarket activity in New York shows shares are up nearly 1%, trading around the $200 handle. Year-to-date, shares are up 12% as of Monday’s close.
Great news for Boeing.
END
CHINA/USA
Trade Truce Set To Ignite “Red Hot” Front-Running Of Chinese Exports To US; Goldman
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 02:25 PM
The so-called “breakthrough” trade deal between the U.S. and China on Monday slashes reciprocal tariffs and sets off a 90-day cooling period—one that Goldman analyst Philip Sun says will likely spark a surge of imports into U.S. ports. Far from the doom-and-gloom headlines pushed by leftist corporate media about “empty ports” and “empty shelves,” the incoming round of frontrunning by importers exposes those narratives as little more than misinformation and disinformation.
The 90-day pause begins on Wednesday. This means President Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will be slashed to 30%, while Beijing will reduce its levies from 125% to 10%. The breakthrough in trade talks follows U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s high-stakes meeting with Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland over the weekend.
Now that U.S. importers have a clear runway of dramatically reduced import costs for three months, Goldman’s Sun asked Tuesday: “Just imagine: given the 90-day tariff pause, how eager the Chinese exporters and American importers would be in rushing the orders?”
The analyst followed up with another question: “We live in a highly uncertain world. Who knows what might happen after 90 days? (or even within). Should the Wal-Marts of the world try to stock up as many Christmas items as possible, perhaps not only for 2025, maybe even for 2026, too?”
All great questions.
Sun answered his own question with a bold forecast: “China’s exports will be RED HOT in the next 90 days. Frontrunning would be the key word.”
In a separate note, Jefferies analysts pointed out that freight rates on the trans-Pacific shipping route between China and the U.S. have soared from $2,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit in mid-April to around $2,500 this week.
“The container sector is positioned for a meaningful improvement in spot rates on two fundamental fronts: a resumption of normal volumes and the beginnings of peak season, which typically commences by July,” Jefferies analysts said, adding, “Given the tighter capacity on the transpacific, ocean carriers are in the driver’s seat to push freight rates meaningfully higher.”
Freight forwarders, such as CMA CGM SA, called the 90-day pause and the move down in the tariff rate between China and the U.S. as “good news.”
A Maersk spokesman told Bloomberg: “Right now, our customers have gotten 90 days of clarity with reduced tariffs, and we are working hard to help them make the best use of this window.”
“As many exporters might have held up their shipments to the US in April, the substantial tariff rollback is likely to spur a wave of pent-up exports,” Nomura chief China economist Lu Ting wrote in a note on Monday.
Here’s a live shot of all container ships with a port calling in the U.S.
The incoming 90-day frontrunning of tariffs will merely destroy the far-left corporate media’s obsession with gloom and doom: “empty ports, empty shelves.”
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
Is Britain On The Brink Of Civil War
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Joe Baron via DailySceptic.org,
According to David Betz, Professor of War in the Modern World at King’s College London, many of the preconditions for civil war exist in Britain today.
Using academic studies on social cohesion, civil war causation theory and social attitudes surveys, he argues that the following preconditions are in place: elite overreach, factional polarization, a collapse in trust, economic pressures, and the perceived downgrading of the majority population in a previously homogeneous society, are all present in contemporary Britain.
The current dynamics, he continues, point to an emerging conflict between radicalized factions within the Muslim community and an incipient nativist white nationalism. Professor Betz goes on to claim – using the Maoist model that divides insurgencies into three phases – that the nativists are in phase one, the so-called defensive phase in which the group begins to organize, disseminate propaganda and build a conscious community of followers.
Islamists, on the other hand, are in phase two – when violent attacks occur on a semi-regular basis, a military structure is being developed, but they are not yet strong enough to challenge the state’s monopoly on violence. (Professor Betz believes that, due to the absence of clear geographic divisions between the antagonists, Britain is unlikely to reach phase three – the offensive phase. This is when the insurgent groups are strong enough to challenge government forces.)
It is an arresting and troubling thesis. It is also convincing.
The preconditions outlined above undeniably exist in modern Britain.
There has been a collapse of public trust in the state, for example. The 41st British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA) report, published on 12 June 2024, concluded “that people’s trust in governments and politicians, and confidence in their systems of government, is as low now as it has ever been over the last 50 years, if not lower”. Indeed, a record high of 45% “almost never” trust governments of any hue (22 points above the figure recorded in 2020); 58% (another record high) “almost never” trust politicians to tell the truth when they are in a tight corner, up 19 points on 2020; and a striking 79% of respondents said that the system of governing Britain could be improved “quite a lot” or a “great deal”, matching a record high recorded during the parliamentary stalemate over Brexit in 2019 and up 18 points on 2020.
Professor John Curtice, the Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, the organisation that carried out the BSA survey, says: “The government… will… need to address the concerns of a public that is as doubtful as it has ever been about the trustworthiness and efficacy of the country’s system of government.” As Professors Curtice and Betz warn, public trust in governments of all stripes has collapsed and, with it, trust in the system of government that we have traditionally sacralised and encouraged others to adopt. That this trend, if left unchecked, could potentially shatter an already fragile social contract is a statement of the obvious. Trust in the state unites the disparate groups of a multicultural society, acting as what Professor Betz calls a kind of “superglue”. Without it, the groups fracture and retreat into silos characterised by mutual suspicion and animosity.
Although the BSA report does provide a chink of light, offering the possibility of a resurgence in trust – like the one seen in 2020 after the parliamentary shenanigans over Brexit were finally put to bed by Boris Johnson’s election victory – the signs are inauspicious. The post-Johnson resurgence was short-lived, eroded by more ‘elite overreach’ as he turbocharged immigration against the wishes of the electorate. What became known as the ‘Boris-wave’ was the final act of betrayal for a downtrodden populus reeling from a decade of broken promises.
Indeed, public trust has been eroded by elite arrogance – and such arrogance shows little sign of abating. Political elites are not only forcing mass immigration on a reluctant population; they are now actively discriminating against the white majority. The recruitment practices of our public services are a case in point. In the summer of 2023, a report found that the Royal Air Force was unlawfully discriminating against white men in a campaign aimed at boosting diversity; West Yorkshire Police recently placed a temporary block on hiring white British candidates for the same reason. In addition, a recent article in the Telegraph revealed that NHS trusts discriminate against white applicants by manipulating interview shortlists to favour ethnic minorities. Our irreproachable health service encourages what is known as the ‘Rooney Rule’ – a policy originating in American football that makes it mandatory for ethnic minorities to be shortlisted for interviews if they apply.
Furthermore, the toxic spectacle of two-tier policing is obvious to all but the most dyed-in-the-wool progressives. The contrast between the police’s uncompromising response to the white Southport rioters – in which they rightly used batons and shields against the aggressors – and their pusillanimous reaction to the Harehills Romani rioters – in which they ran away despite a bus being set on fire – was starkly demonstrative of a system that no longer treats its citizens as equal in the eyes of the law. Sir Keir Starmer took the knee in the wake of the violent Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests; he pressured judges to hand down custodial sentences to mothers who posted injudicious tweets during the Southport disturbances.
Guidance issued by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) and the College of Policing shamelessly highlights the current two-tier approach. It says there should be “equality of policing outcomes”, meaning, to ensure “racial equity” not everyone should be treated the same. Apparently, policing should not be “colour blind”. The justification for anti-white racism is therefore spelt out in black and white – excuse the pun. No wonder the police attack white football fans trying to protect the Cenotaph whilst appeasing the Islamo-fascists who wish to deface it. No wonder they tolerate marauding Muslim gangs in Birmingham while deploying armoured battalions to deal with their white counterparts.
The white, native population is in the midst of an elite driven programme to downgrade their status in the United Kingdom – a phenomenon that Professor Betz cites as a precondition for civil war.
That it could lead to a backlash by those being downgraded is self-evident.
Britain is already facing factional polarization within some of its communities. Last year, four independent MPs were elected because of a religiously-inspired preoccupation with the Israel-Hamas war. Moreover, according to government figures, the UK has approximately 40,000 Islamists on the terror watchlist. Inter-communal violence has also been playing out on the streets of Birmingham between Hindus and Muslims, as well as on the streets of London between Eritreans and Ethiopians. If you add economic pressures into the mix – economic stagnation since 2008, an acute housing shortage, historically high taxation, private and public indebtedness, and broken public services – and a resentful white majority (Southport witnessed the incipient convulsions of a native population that clearly feels besieged), a heady, explosive cocktail threatens to ignite the country.
Professor Betz is right. The preconditions for civil war do exist. Years of elite overreach have led to resentment and an alarming collapse of trust in our politicians, institutions, and political system, in addition to the increased polarization of our ever-growing migrant communities – communities that find themselves, along with the native majority, in the eye of an approaching storm. Our elites must wake up before it’s too late!
Joe Baron is the pseudonym of a secondary school teacher. This piece was originally published on his Substack, which you can subscribe to here.
END
FRANCE/EU
Le Pen Urges Unified Nationalist Front In European Parliament, Slams Warmongering Franco-German Axis
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix news,
Marine Le Pen used a visit to Rome on Saturday to denounce what she called a growing “democratic scandal” within the European Union, following her recent conviction that has barred her from running in France’s next presidential election.
Speaking alongside Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, the French nationalist leader warned that her case was part of a wider pattern of political suppression aimed at silencing sovereignist movements across Europe.
“I have an African friend who told me that there are countries where there are no elections, and countries where candidates are prevented from running,” Le Pen said in an interview with Corriere Della Sera during the visit.
“I believe that my conviction is really a democratic scandal: I was prevented from running for election, despite having appealed and am therefore still presumed innocent.”
Le Pen drew a direct comparison between her own legal troubles and what she described as systematic efforts by the European establishment to neutralize opposition voices.
“I can’t help but think of what happened to Salvini, what happened in Romania with Călin Georgescu, and what the European Union wants to do with Orbán,” she said.
“The EU does not like defeats, but it is ready to go against the people to crush those who bother it.”
Her remarks came during a joint appearance with Salvini at the League’s School of Political Formation following a religious observance in honor of Pope Leo XIV. The two leaders, longtime allies in the European nationalist movement, presented a united front against what they view as Brussels’ overreach and ideological rigidity.
“His political ideas are practically the same as mine,” Le Pen said of Salvini.
“And I want to add that he is a brave, faithful man with great willpower. He really is a friend.”
Le Pen also used her Rome trip to criticize ongoing EU defense integration efforts, particularly the Readiness 2030 initiative, which she claimed is another vehicle for centralizing power in Brussels. “Whenever there is a crisis, the EU takes advantage to push integrated policies that override national sovereignty,” she said. “Today, it does so with Ukraine and tries to build a European army. It does so in an absolutely cynical way, to impose its ideological agenda on the European people.”
With French President Emmanuel Macron and other EU leaders visiting Kyiv for meetings with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” Le Pen questioned the coalition’s true aim. “Does it want to reach an agreement for peace, or will it end up fomenting war?” she asked. “Macron has put himself in the shoes of the warrior. France should do the opposite: devote all its efforts to acting as a mediator in the direction of peace.”
Though Patriots for Europe, the nationalist parliamentary group Le Pen co-founded, is now the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament, she acknowledged that uniting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) could elevate their influence further. “I do not lose hope that the sovereigntists can evolve into a single formation,” she said. “After all, we already vote together on many amendments. Certainly, there is more that unites us than separates us.”
On Meloni herself, Le Pen insisted she has “an important diplomatic role, and that’s no surprise. We have differences — especially her support for the election of Ursula von der Leyen — but she’s achieved results, both externally and for Italy’s economy.”
Despite tensions between the French and Italian governments, Le Pen advocated for a revival of the bilateral relationship. “France and Italy are the two most similar countries in Europe,” she said. “I support a true Renaissance in relations between them.”
In contrast, she dismissed the longstanding Franco-German axis.
“That axis is a choice of the current French government,” she said.
“Germany has always pursued its own policies. I believe Europe needs rules that apply equally to all.”
END
ROBERT H
EUROPE
The start of Capital Controls
For a year or more I have been trying to caution about upcoming war not because of a Russian horde sweeping Western Europe but a growing inability of the EU to cope with deficits and spending. The economic fallout from COVID was the straw that broke the backbone of economic growth to cause the DEBT problem, much sooner than it would be. It is why the slogan “build back better” was trumpeted.
There are 2ways governments deal with this Capital Restrictions or War. Why? Governments never admit the error they commit. If they do without a scapegoat that the public accepts the facts sink them by vote or force. War is preferable because you blame the opponent and war itself for a default.
A default of currency and past debt allows for the game to start all over again. European history has seen this many a time with various nations.
We will see this again later this year or next. And this is the public signpost that should be noted : “ Withdrawing large sums in cash is no longer possible in Spain without the government’s approval. Those withdrawing €3,000 or more must notify Spain’s tax agency, Agencia Tributaria, in advance. Withdrawals at or exceeding €100,000 require a 72-hour approval process, and the tax agency is requesting a 24-hour mandatory notification for any amount over €3,000.“
This is a signal that Capital Controls are on the horizon! And it will spread to other EU countries.
Europe is not alone in what is coming as many nations will experience upheaval. Perhaps it is just time for change.
END
GERMANY USA
Trump wins again!
“A Complete Surrender” – Germany Stops Spying On AfD Party After US Pressure
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 12:45 PM
Germany’s domestic spy agency has suspended authoritarian surveillance methods of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and U.S. pressure may have played a role.
The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the country’s powerful domestic spy agency, had labeled the AfD a “confirmed far-right organization” before suspending this designation last week. The main reason presented was that the AfD is appealing the designation in court and the agency would wait until this appeal is concluded to decide whether to keep the designation.
However, Germany’s ally, the United States, immediately criticized the designation in some of the harshest language possible, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling it “tyranny in disguise.” That was not all, though. U.S. Senator Tom Cotton, chairman of the powerful U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, then asked Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) to suspend intelligence cooperation between the United States and Germany.
According to Cotton, the German authorities’ politically motivated surveillance activities resemble methods used by dictatorships that are unbecoming of a democratic ally.
“Rather than trying to undermine the AfD using the tools of authoritarian states, Germany’s incoming government might be better advised to consider why the AfD continues to gain electoral ground,” he wrote.
This would have represented a drastic break between the two allies and even a threat to Germany’s national security, which raised the stakes in Germany’s authoritarian move to stifle the political opposition. Currently, the AfD is the largest opposition party in the country and for the first time ever, polled in first place last month.
The developments have also caused a major stir in Germany. Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, said American pressure was behind the BfV’s withdrawal of its designation label on the AfD. In addition, Joachim Steinhöfel, a lawyer defending freedom of speech, told NIUS that the move by the BfV is “a complete surrender by the German domestic intelligence service.” He also noted that U.S. influence was vital.
“We also have to thank the Americans for exerting massive pressure,” he added.
Germany often relies on external partners to spy on its own citizens, as Germany features very strict privacy laws. The NSA is thought to be especially active watching Germans. As a result, any U.S. withdrawal from intelligence sharing could have been disastrous for Germany.
The temporary removal of the designation was warmly welcomed by the AfD, as it gives the party breathing room. For one, a vote on the ban of the party has little chance of moving forward without the designation. Second, the designation offered the BfV the legal means to surveil the entire party and its membership without a warrant, including reading emails and chats, as well as flood the party with informants.
Now, German intelligence is being forced to rethink its surveillance policy as political divisions grow. However, if the appeal court agrees with the BfV that the AfD can be labeled right-wing extremist, the same issue may rear its head again. It is unclear how long this appeals process will take, whether months or even years; however, there is a growing chorus from Germany’s left, as well as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to ban the entire AfD party.
If that happens, tensions between the U.S. and Germany could soar to new heights.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS
‘Things you’ve never seen before are going to happen in Gaza,’ Netanyahu says
This comes after the IDF stopped operations in Gaza for Edan Alexander’s safe crossing.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 12, 2025 22:04Updated: MAY 12, 2025 22:
“Within days, things are going to happen in Gaza — things you’ve never seen before,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the War Wounded Forum on Monday.
According to a handout, the prime minister met with wounded soldiers for an hour and a half and listened to the soldiers’ stories of heroism and injury.
Netanyahu’s statement comes after Israeli sources have signalled IDF readiness to expand combat operations in the Gaza Strip.
IDF to expand combat operations in Gaza after Alexander’s release
An Israeli official source told The Jerusalem Post that the moment Edan Alexander returns home, Israel will resume combat operations in Gaza.
The IDF had stopped operations in Gaza for the Israeli-American hostage’s safe crossing, but emphasized that it would resume combat as soon as he was in Israel.
Additionally, on Sunday, an Israeli official told the Post that Israel’s ultimatum to Hamas regarding the launch of a widened Gaza offensive is still in effect after Alexander’s release.
Israel previously gave Hamas a deadline to either release 10 hostages in exchange for a 45-day ceasefire or face a widened Gaza offensive.
“The plan includes… seizing and holding territory in Gaza, moving the Gazan population southward for their protection, preventing Hamas from distributing humanitarian aid, and launching powerful strikes against Hamas – all actions that will help bring about its defeat,” a senior political source told the Post.
ISRAEL HAMAS
Watch: Netanyahu: ‘Edan Alexander released because of IDF pressure, US diplomatic efforts’
Israeli officials expressed their joy at Alexander’s return, but noted that returning the remaining 58 hostages from Hamas captivity was of the upmost priority.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 12, 2025 20:27Updated: MAY 12, 2025 21:5
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3895765&url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-853717Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Edan Alexander’s release in a Monday statement on May 12, 2025.
In a video statement Monday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed home the released hostage Edan Alexander, saying his release was the result of IDF military pressure and US diplomatic efforts.
“Trump told me: ‘I am committed to Israel. I am committed to continuing to work with you in close cooperation’ to achieve all our war objectives: to free all the hostages and to defeat Hamas,” he said.
“These things go hand in hand. They are interconnected.”
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir noted the military’s excitement at the prospect of an IDF soldier coming home.
“We are emotional and grateful for the return of Edan, an IDF soldier, home,” an IDF handout statement read. “That said, we do not forget our commitment to bring back the 58 hostages still held by Hamas—they remain constantly in our thoughts. We will continue to use all means at our disposal to bring them home.”
Israeli officials react to Edan Alexander’s release
Defense Minister Israel Katz welcomed Alexander home and noted that he was “moved, together with the entire State of Israel, to see him reunited with his loving family, who worked day and night for his return home.”
He also thanked President Trump and the US administration for their efforts in securing his release.
“We are committed to doing everything possible until all the hostages — our brothers and sisters, both the living and the fallen — are brought back to Israel.”
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich noted his “immense emotion” at Alexander’s release in a statement on X/Twitter.
“Your return is a great ray of light for your family, friends, and all the people of Israel,” he said. “We never stopped hoping, praying, and yearning for this moment — sending you a big hug.”
“The State of Israel will not stop until we destroy Hamas and bring back the last of the hostages, both the living and the fallen,” he said.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that while he was happy to see Alexander return home, he believed that all of the Israeli citizens remained in captivity because of the government’s inaction.
“Whoever can be brought back—must be brought back,” he said. “Heartbreaking because Edan Alexander was released because he is an American citizen, in negotiations conducted by the American administration. Those who remain in Hamas tunnels are Israeli citizens. They were not released because the Israeli government did not make a deal to free them. The hostages are ours, and the responsibility for their return lies with the government.”
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum directly addressed the prime minister in a Monday night statement.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu, the ball is in your court. Announce tonight that you are ready to negotiate a comprehensive agreement to bring home all 58 hostages and establish a framework for ending the war,” the statement reads, urging him not to “miss this historic opportunity.”
“Prove to the Israeli public and President Trump that you are willing to take a regional initiative that transcends narrow political considerations.”
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF moves soldiers from Syria, West Bank to north Gaza
The security cabinet agreed to expand operations in Gaza on May 2, with the IDF’s plan to include military control of the area, PM Netanyahu stated.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 11, 2025 16:33Updated: MAY 11, 2025 17:5
The IDF is relocating soldiers from the Paratroopers Brigade, currently serving at the Syrian border, and soldiers from the Nahal Brigade, currently serving in the West Bank, and redeploying them to north Gaza, the military announced on Sunday.
The paratroopers will join the IDF’s 98th Division, and the Nahal Brigade soldiers will join the IDF’s 162nd Division as they prepare for expanded operations within the enclave.
The IDF is mobilizing reservist soldiers to the Golan Heights and the Syrian border to replace the paratroopers, the military confirmed.
There was no comment clarifying whether other personnel will be deployed to replace the Nahal Brigade soldiers who have been serving in the West Bank.
The paratroopers had been serving under the IDF’s 210th Division, and carried out dozens of raids on Syrian outposts, during which hundreds of weapons were confiscated and destroyed, the military stated.
The Nahal Brigade soldiers had arrested more than 100 wanted individuals, located and confiscated dozens of weapons, and killed “several” terrorists, the military added.
The security cabinet agreed to expand operations in Gaza on May 2.
Israel plans to transfer north Gaza residents to the south of the enclave
Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF’s plans to expand their maneuvers in the Gaza Strip include transferring all residents to the south of the enclave, his office confirmed on Wednesday.
The IDF’s renewed operation in the Gaza Strip will include military control of the area, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during the security cabinet late last Sunday night.
The plan is also set to include the holding of territory, the movement of Gazans southwards, and denying Hamas’s ability to distribute humanitarian aid.
Netanyahu also noted the plan would allow both war goals to be achieved, defeating Hamas and the return of the hostages.
The IDF sent out call-up orders for tens of thousands of reservists starting last Sunday, on the road toward widening the Gaza invasion.
Also, the military said that the expansion would be in stages, signaling that it could take days or weeks before having a clearer picture of the strategy and impact of the IDF’s further invasion.
As part of the widening of the invasion of Gaza, the IDF plans to completely clear the northern part of the enclave, sending its citizens to southern Gaza, where a new humanitarian aid pilot program will begin, a senior security source said on Monday.
Yonah Jeremy Bob and Amichai Stein contributed to this report
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF strikes Hamas terrorists operating in Gaza hospital
According to the military, the compound was used by the terrorists to plan and execute terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 13, 2025 04:3
The IDF struck Hamas terrorists who were operating from within a command and control center located in the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis, the military announced on Tuesday.
According to the military, the compound was used by the terrorists to plan and execute terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops.
Senior Hamas officials continue to use the hospital for terrorist activity, through cynical and brutal use of the civilian population in the hospital and its surroundings, the military added.
Prior to the strike, multiple steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence, the military asserted.
Key Hamas terrorist killed in March
In late March, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) struck a key Hamas terrorist who was operating within the Nasser Hospital, The Jerusalem Post previously reported.
Ismail Barhoum, a member of Hamas’s political bureau in Gaza and head of the organization’s finances, was targeted and killed in the operation.
According to a joint statement from the IDF and Shin Bet, the strike was conducted following an intelligence-gathering process and with precise munitions.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Trump puts an American First, and Israel rejoices
The freeing of Edan Alexander is wonderful instance of US and Israeli interests overlapping. As JD Vance predicted months ago, that’s not always the case with Trump and Netanyahu
By David Horovitz FollowToday, 1:00 am
A crowd celebrates the release of hostage Edan Alexander in his hometown of Tenafly, New Jersey, May 12, 2025. (Lokman Vural Elibol / Anadolu / via Reuters)
If anything can be sudden after 584 days, the release by Hamas on Monday of the last living Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander was indeed an unexpected and wonderful surprise.
It was also a reflection of President Donald Trump’s declared “America First” outlook — or, in this case, “American First.” Unwilling to wait any longer for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reliance on military pressure to yield even a mini-new deal with Hamas, the president tasked his envoys with securing Alexander’s freedom. Israel was only officially updated on Sunday, when it was a fait accompli.
For the families of hostages without American or other second citizenship, delight in the return of another hostage was tempered by the heightened concern that their own government is less obsessed than the leader of the free world with liberating their loved ones from the daily life-threatening peril of Hamas captivity.
“My Matan, a citizen who is unwell and who was abducted from his bed, is being held together with Edan Alexander,” Einav Zangauker, the most relentless public critic of the prime minister among the parents of hostages, posted on social media on Monday morning. “The two of them are in one dark tunnel, without other hostages. If Matan is left behind alone in the tunnel, Netanyahu has decided to murder my son,” she charged. “Instead of freeing all the hostages, he is becoming my private angel of death.”
But while the release of the New Jersey-raised 21-year-old was plainly an instance of American First, the US president and his officials indicated that it is not a case of American Only.
Trump pledged late on Sunday to seek the return of “all living hostages and remains to their loved ones.” His hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, flying to Israel together with Edan’s mother Yael on Monday, took to their plane’s PA to vouchsafe that Trump “told me to go get back every hostage, every Israeli,” and “he wasn’t kidding.”
Released hostage Edan Alexander, center, reunites with his parents at an IDF base near Re’im, May 12, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
Where the president does appear at odds with Netanyahu, however, is over the cabinet-approved imminent intense escalation of the fighting in Gaza, and the Israeli coalition’s determination not to end the war.
His special envoy Steve Witkoff was quoted recently telling families of hostages that the US did not see where further progress could be made militarily, and that it “wants to return the hostages, but Israel is not ready to end the war.”
Whatever the veracity of that report, Trump made clear on Sunday that he regards Alexander’s release as “hopefully… the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict,” and he did not cite the imperative to destroy Hamas as a condition for the war to end.
US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, similarly celebrating Alexander’s release, also said on Monday evening that he hoped it “marks the beginning of the end to this terrible war.” While Huckabee stressed that “Hamas alone is responsible for the continued death and suffering,” he, too, did not specify that Hamas would have to be destroyed for the fighting to conclude.
At the joint press conference with Netanyahu in February where Trump announced his radical idea of turning Gaza into “the Riviera of the Middle East,” the president did state that he had discussed with Netanyahu “how we can work together to ensure Hamas is eliminated.”
But since then, Netanyahu elected not to proceed to the second and third phases of the hostage-ceasefire deal that Witkoff finalized in Doha in January, and last week set out his plans for “an intensified operation in Gaza” that, he made clear, would not end anytime soon.
And while the prime minister spoke of retaining captured territory until all the declared goals of the war were attained, a stance not entirely contradicting Trump’s Gaza vision, his far-right coalition partner, Bezalel Smotrich, went considerably further. Smotrich declared that Israel was “finally going to occupy the Gaza Strip” and asserted that once the new offensive began, there would be “no retreat from the territories we have conquered, not even in exchange for hostages.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) in a video with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich after passing the 2025 state budget, March 25, 2025. (Screenshot/GPO)
Given that Smotrich, along with fellow far-right coalition party leader Itamar Ben Gvir, had insisted on a return to the war, rather than continuing to the second phase of the January deal, Trump and his officials might reasonably have concluded that it is Smotrich, rather than Netanyahu, who is determining Israeli government policy, and that it is not to their liking.
In October, at the height of the US presidential election campaign, Trump’s running mate, now Vice President JD Vance, warned resonantly that “America’s interest is sometimes going to be distinct” from Israel’s. He was speaking not in the context of Gaza, but of Iran: “Sometimes we’re going to have overlapping interests, and sometimes we’re going to have distinct interests,” Vance repeated. “And our interest very much is in not going to war with Iran.”
US President Donald Trump (center) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu look to Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office of the White House, February 4, 2025, in Washington. (AP/Evan Vucci)
For all the protestations from both sides that ties between the two leaderships are “excellent,” daylight would seem to be visible as regards the prosecution of the war against Hamas, especially given Smotrich’s declared annexationist and resettlement ambitions. In addition, there was acute discomfort that Trump reached a truce deal with the Houthis, without warning Israel, a fairly staggering two days after the Yemeni terrorists had hit the grounds of Ben Gurion Airport, sending most foreign airlines fleeing, yet to return. And Trump has declared definitively that a deal with Iran “is going to happen” — echoing Vance’s October mindset and despite Netanyahu’s concern over the terms.
The extraction of Edan Alexander from the vicious clutches of Hamas emphatically serves both American and Israeli interests. But as Vance predicted, those interests are not always going to overlap. And they evidently don’t entirely align over Gaza, or the Houthis, or, most worryingly, over Iran — not for a president declaredly intent on ending wars, dealing with an Israeli government, dominated by far-right expansionists, that isn’t.
END
ISRAEL/USA
Trump’s Rift With Bibi Might Be Irreconcilable
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
That would be a nightmare scenario from the perspective of Israeli interests…
A report circulated last week alleging that Trump cut off all direct contact with Bibi after feeling manipulated by him. For as sensational as it sounds, the larger context suggests that it might be true. For starters, there was bad blood between them since late 2020 after Trump reportedly felt betrayed by Bibi recognizing Biden’s electoral victory while Trump was still challenging it in the courts.
This is a very personal issue for him seeing as how he continues to insist that he won so it wouldn’t be surprising.
More recently, Bibi has been pressuring Trump to bomb Iran, which Trump doesn’t want to do since a large-scale war in West Asia would offset his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia” for containing China. In connection with that, Trump reportedly dismissed former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz due to him supposedly coordinating too closely with Israel. Also of relevance are the rumors that Israel was caught off guard by the US’ resumption of talks with Iran and is against any agreement between them.
Then there’s the US’ recent deal with the Houthis that excludes Israel, reports that the US will delink Saudi recognition of Israel from their civil nuclear talks, and even speculation that Trump might recognize Palestine during his attendance at next week’s Gulf-US Summit in Riyadh. Altogether, it’s self-evident that US-Israeli ties are newly beset with a host of problems, thus lending credence to the earlier cited report about Trump cutting off all direct contact with Bibi.
Their rift might even be irreconcilable depending on Trump’s next steps. It was already bad enough from Israel’s perspective that the US reached its own deal with the Houthis right after they announced their plans to impose an air blockade on Israel but delinking Saudi recognition of Israel from their civil nuclear talks, let alone recognizing Palestine, could cross the Rubicon. In that scenario, Israel and the US would remain at odds during the rest of Trump’s term, and perhaps even afterwards if Vance succeeds him.
The consequences of that happening would widely reverberate throughout the region. Without the continued support of its oldest and most reliable ally, which is still the strongest and most influential country in the world despite the global systemic transition to multipolarity, Israel would be left alone to deal with threats from Iran and Turkiye. To make matters worse, it can’t be ruled out that the US might curtail or even suspend its military aid to Israel on whatever pretext, thus weakening its armed forces.
This combination of factors could lead to Israel wildly lashing out against its regional adversaries in desperation before it loses its military-strategic advantages, which could spark a large-scale war, or being coerced into a series of compromises that accelerates the loss of these selfsame advantages. From the viewpoint of Israeli interests, this a zero-sum dilemma that it must avoid at all costs, yet Trump’s potentially irreconcilable rift with Bibi could turn this nightmare scenario into a fait accompli.
Nevertheless, as Trump’s unexpected reconciliation with Zelensky shows, there’s always the chance that their tensions could be overcome. For that to happen, however, Bibi would likely have to give Trump something of equivalent strategic value to Zelensky’s minerals deal. It’s unclear what that might be, and it could come too late to stop the US from delinking Saudi recognition of Israel from their civil nuclear talks and/or recognizing Palestine, but Bibi would do well to make Trump a peace offering pronto.
SAUDI ARABIA
Trump Seeking $1 Trillion In Saudi Investment, Air Force One En Route
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 07:15 PM
US President Donald Trump is reportedly seeking $1 trillion in investments from Saudi Arabia in an upcoming visit to the energy-rich Gulf Kingdom. This comes amid reports that normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv has effectively “been delinked” from economic and security talks with Washington.
Trump has departed Monday on a four-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, with the trip expected to center on securing business deals and attracting new investments from the oil-rich Gulf states. The president will not visit Israel.
Reuters reported Sunday that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to normalize relations with Israel at this time due to Israel’s continuation of its war in Gaza and refusal to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state, according to US and Saudi officials. “Establishing ties has become especially toxic for Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza,” Reuters wrote.
US officials have failed to convince their Israeli counterparts to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza – one of Saudi Arabia’s preconditions for any re-start of normalization talks, two Gulf sources and a US official stated. Instead, Israeli leaders have expressed their desire to continue the war, which has killed well over 60,000 Palestinians, in an effort to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians and prepare it for Jewish settlement.
The reports contradict the optimism expressed by Trump’s envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, who told an audience at the Israeli embassy in Washington this week that he expected important progress on expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement through which other Arab states, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, normalized relations with Israel.
“We think we will have some or a lot of announcements very, very shortly, which we hope will yield progress by next year,” Witkoff said in a video of his speech before accompanying Trump on his trip to the region that will not include a visit to Israel.
As a result, Saudi normalization with Israel has “effectively been delinked from economic and other security matters between Washington and the kingdom, Reuters wrote, citing two Saudi and two US officials, all of whom requested to remain anonymous.
As a result, Trump’s visit to the kingdom will focus on securing a trillion dollars’ worth of Saudi investments in US companies, “including major deals in arms, mega-projects and artificial intelligence,” Reuters wrote.
“The Trump administration wants this trip to be a big deal. That means lots of splashy deal announcements and collaborations that can be sold as being good for America,” said Robert Mogielnicki, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, a think tank in Washington.
“Normalizing ties with Israel is a much heavier lift than rolling out the red carpet for President Trump and announcing investment deals,” he said. The Saudi government communications office did not reply to a request for comment, Reuters added.
In a related matter, an informed source told Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds on Sunday that the meeting between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh on Tuesday will also include Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
The source, who declined to be identified, said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman submitted the proposal, which received Trump’s approval.
The source confirmed that MbS is looking forward to Trump’s acceptance of the Saudi condition for the establishment of a Palestinian state, noting that achieving this would constitute one of the greatest and most important achievements of Saudi Arabia’s active diplomacy.
end
Israel/USA
Netanyahu Blasts Media ‘Spin’, Says Trump Ties ‘Excellent’ – Dispatches Hostage Negotiators
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 09:10 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday that he has approved a negotiating delegation to travel to Qatar on Tuesday to participate in US-led prisoner exchange talks.
The decision was announced after the embattled premier met with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Ambassador Mike Huckabee earlier in the day and spoke over the phone with US President Donald Trump.
“I thanked President Trump for his assistance in the release of IDF soldier Edan Alexander. President Trump, for his part, reiterated his commitment to Israel and his desire to continue close cooperation with me,” Netanyahu wrote on social media.
“In my meeting with Envoy Witkoff and Ambassador Huckabee, we discussed the last-ditch effort to implement the outline for the release of the hostages presented by Witkoff, before the fighting escalates. To this end, I have instructed that a negotiating delegation be sent to Doha tomorrow,” Netanyahu added.
He also said he had informed his US allies “that negotiations would only take place under fire.”
Netanyahu’s announcement came a few hours after he rejected reports that a rift exists between him and Trump, calling his relationship with the US president “excellent.”
“These spins – most of them are born here [in Israel.] They’re born in a certain media outlet that’s trying to promote a certain candidate. And in order to promote him, they need to say: ‘Trump and Netanyahu are no longer,’” Netanyahu said in a video posted on his X account.
This comes as Israeli-US captive Edan Alexander was released by Hamas on Monday evening. Officials from Washington reportedly informed Tel Aviv that his release will kickstart a new round of prisoner exchange talks.
Alexander’s release reportedly prompted a partial stop in Israeli army operations inside Gaza.
“A significant number of military operations have indeed been halted. There are no airstrikes in Gaza, aside from a few attacks, and no drone reconnaissance flights over the Gaza Strip,” Israeli Army Radio had reported Monday morning.
end
Iran, EU et al..
Iran warns Europeans of possible ‘irreversible consequences’ from reimposing sanctions
Britain, France and Germany said to be mulling renewed measure as form of diplomatic leverage over the Islamic Republic as US seeks to ramp up pressure amid nuclear talks
By Reuters and ToI Staff12 May 2025, 6:20 pm
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a news conference following his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, Russia, Friday, April 18, 2025. (Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool Photo via AP)
PARIS — Iran’s foreign minister warned Britain, France and Germany Monday that a decision to trigger a UN mechanism reimposing sanctions on Tehran could lead to an irreversible escalation of tensions.
Under the terms of a UN resolution ratifying a 2015 nuclear pact, the three European powers could reimpose United Nations sanctions against Tehran before October 18, known in diplomatic circles as the “snapback mechanism.”
They were said to be mulling the option as a form of diplomatic leverage, as the US seeks to ramp up pressure on Iran amid ongoing nuclear talks between the two countries.
“Iran has made its position clear. We have officially warned all JCPOA [nuclear pact] signatories that abuse of the snapback mechanism will lead to consequences — not only the end of Europe’s role in the agreement, but also an escalation of tensions that could become irreversible,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a column in French weekly magazine Le Point.
US President Donald Trump exited Tehran’s 2015 nuclear accord with six world powers in 2018 during his first term and reimposed tough sanctions that devastated Iran’s economy.
The European powers are not part of current negotiations between Iran and the US, the fourth round of which ended in Oman Sunday. But the three powers have sought to coordinate closely with Washington with a view to whether and when they should use the snapback mechanism to raise pressure on Iran.
In this photo released by Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, right, steps out from his plane as he arrives at Muscat, Oman, Friday, April 25, 2025, a day prior to negotiations with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)
Talks between the so-called E3 and Iran in Rome earlier in May were postponed. Araghchi said that a meeting between Iran’s deputy foreign minister and E3 counterparts had since taken place, describing them as a “promising, but fragile start.”
France’s foreign ministry declined to comment. The British and German foreign ministries were not immediately available to comment.
According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, the E3 countries may trigger a snapback by August if no substantial deal can be found by then. The window closes on October 18.
Relations between the E3 and Iran have worsened over the last year despite sporadic meetings, against a backdrop of new sanctions imposed on Tehran over its ballistic missile program, its detention of foreign citizens and support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Iran, which has long denied having nuclear weapons and insisted its nuclear program is peaceful, has breached the 2015 pact’s nuclear curbs since 2019, including “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons-grade, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.
END
UAE/USA
US Unveils $1.4BN Weapons Sale To UAE Just Before Trump Visit
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 01:05 PM
Oil, weapons, the United States, and the Gulf Arab monarchies… the foundation of relations, the ‘bread and butter’ going back at least half-a-century which is still going strong.
With President Donald Trump kicking off his Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia, and set to travel to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates next, the State Department has unveiled a weapons sale of over $1.4 billion to the United Arab Emirates.
“The sale, which the State Department said was approved and notified to Congress, includes $1.3 billion for Chinook helicopters and $130 million for parts and support for F-16 fighter jets,” CNN writes.
The UAE will be the final stop in Trump’s Middle East tour, or what the White House described as his “historic return to the Middle East”.
Of course, major arms sale are also expected for Saudi Arabia – and the UAE and Saudis often act in concert when it comes to defense needs, as was the case during the coalition’s war on Yemen in the last decade.
The Republican-led Congress, meanwhile, hasn’t done much and likely isn’t planning to do much else in the opening months of the Trump administration – other than perhaps rubber stamp these massive Gulf arms deals.
However, there will some scant level of pushback:
“This year, Democratic lawmakers — who are in the minority in both houses of Congress — have opposed arms sales to the UAE,” CNN notes. “In January, Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Sara Jacobs called out the UAE for providing weapons to the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.”
“On Monday, the same day the latest sale was announced, Sen. Chris Murphy said he would seek to block sales to the UAE over an Abu Dhabi-backed investment firm’s $2 billion investment in Trump’s crypto venture,” the same report says.
The UAE arms deal is also expected to include aerial support equipment such as engines, missile warning systems, in-flight refueling capabilities, and mounted machine guns – along with other aircraft parts.
The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said in a statement that the arms transfer aims to “support the foreign policy and national security of the United States” by bolstering the defense capabilities of Washington ally, the UAE.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
Coincidence? Top Two MMR-Vaccinated States Lead In 2025 Measles Cases
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 05:40 PM
Texas and New Mexico have had the sharpest increase in measles (MMR) vaccination so far in 2025 – they’ve also had the most measles cases.
That raises serious questions about what’s really driving these outbreaks – and whether the mainstream “solution” is making the problem worse.
Increased Vaccinations
- Texas: From January 1 to March 16, 2025, Texas administered at least 173,000 doses of the measles vaccine, up from 158,000 during the same period in 2024—a roughly 9.5% increase.
- New Mexico: According to the New Mexico Department of Health, between February 1 and March 31, 2025, 14,757 doses of the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine were administered in New Mexico, compared to 8,162 during the same period in 2024—an 80.8% increase.
Increased Cases
- Texas is the clear epicenter, with 709 cases reported as of early May, far surpassing any other state.
- New Mexico has reported 71 confirmed measles cases, as of early May 2025, confirmed by the New Mexico Department of Health.
Live Virus, Live Risk: Infections Emerging After MMR Vaccination Campaigns Raise Alarms
JonFleetwood.com is exclusively keeping a running list of troubling patterns linking measles infections to recent government-led MMR vaccination campaigns across North America:
- The MMR vaccine contains a live measles virus, according to the manufacturer.
- The live measles virus in the MMR vaccine is the product of gain-of-function (GOF) laboratory experiments, meaning it is deliberately engineered to enhance its ability to infect more human cells than the wild-type measles virus can and may retain characteristics that enable transmission and replication in the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.
- The live virus in the vaccine can be shed for weeks from the vaccinated, potentially infecting the unvaccinated. A 1995 CDC study found that 83% of vaccinated children had measles virus shed in their urine. An April 2012 publication in the peer-reviewed journal Paediatrics & Child Health reported a child was being investigated after developing a new-onset measles-type rash after receiving a measles vaccine, meaning the shot can cause disease in the vaccinated. Nucleic acid testing confirmed that a “vaccine-type measles virus was being shed in the [child’s] urine.” A 2014 study in Clinical Infectious Diseases confirms that vaccinated individuals can transmit measles to multiple contacts.
- There are no peer-reviewed studies that confirm the virus in the measles vaccine is less infectious or replicates less in humans than the wild-type virus found in nature, meaning health officials have no scientific basis for claiming the vaccine strain poses a lower transmission risk to the unvaccinated.
- The claim that many of these measles cases are from wild-type measles viruses and not the live virus in the vaccine is undermined by the fact that the PCR test used as evidence of wild-type infection is only reliable less than 3% of the time. Research in Access Microbiology highlights that standard PCR assays might not effectively distinguish between vaccine and wild-type strains. The CDC has confirmed that PCR tests often misinterpret measles vaccine virus infection as wild-type measles infection: “Inability of these testing panels to differentiate between measles virus causing illness and incidental detection of measles vaccine virus RNA can have significant public health reporting and response ramifications, potentially leading to misdiagnosis of measles virus infection,” writes CDC.
- Measles outbreaks have followed government-led vaccination campaigns in Texas, Canada, and Hawaii, raising concerns of vaccine-caused infections.
- A 12-month-old girl in Michigan recently infected with measles had received an MMR vaccine.
- Southern New Mexico’s most populous and vaccinated county, Doña Ana, recently reported its first measles infection after the state nearly doubled its measles vaccination rate compared to last year.
- Virginia’s first confirmed measles case in 2025 occurred in a child following state and local health officials issuing multiple public health announcements urging residents to get the MMR shot.
- Just weeks after the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) rolled out a “measles simulator dashboard” meant to pressure students and residents into receiving MMR vaccines, Illinois reported its first confirmed measles case of 2025.
- The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment recently confirmed a fifth case of measles in Colorado this year in a Denver County adult resident with verified measles (MMR) vaccination records.
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
SLAY NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Watch: Leftists Create Human Chain, Block Multiple Emergency Vehicles from Entering ICE FacilityOn Monday, far-left ‘faith leaders’ blocked the gates at the same Newark detention facility where New Jersey Democrats got into a violent confrontation with ICE agents.The leftists created a human chain and blocked emergency vehicles from entering the Delaney Hall facility and they were ready to get arrested for obstructing agents.The faith leaders said they are ready to be arrested …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Church Cuts Ties with US Refugee Program Over White Afrikaner ResettlementThe far-left leadership of the Episcopal Church announced Monday that it is severing its nearly 40-year partnership with the U.S. government to resettle refugees — all because the Trump administration dared to classify white South African Afrikaners as refugees in need of protection.The same Episcopal Church that prided itself on aiding persecuted people from war-torn regions is now walking away …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| It Turns Out That Even More of Joe Biden’s Jobs Creation Numbers Were FakeThe Biden administration’s phony jobs boom just went up in smoke. For months, it paraded numbers around like everything was fine, telling Americans the economy was roaring back, that job creation was on fire, and that “Bidenomics” was working. But the truth, long suspected by anyone trying to pay the bills, is now confirmed by the government’s own data: those …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| American Hostage Edan Alexander Reunites with Parents After 584 Days in Hamas CaptivityWith tight hugs and tears, American-Israeli Edan Alexander was reunited with his parents today, ending 584 harrowing days in Hamas captivity.WATCH: Edan Alexander reuniting with his parents after being a hostage 584 days. pic.twitter.com/ngvQGCZ2hL— Kassy Akiva (@KassyAkiva) May 12, 2025The 21-year-old greeted his parents at the Re’im base on the Gaza border. Before reaching his parents, he spoke to his …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Non-Citizens Can Now Arrest You in Blue State After Dem-Backed Bill Becomes LawA recent Democratic-backed law in New Mexico seeks to solve the state’s rampant crime problem and shortage of cops by letting foreign nationals become police officers.Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham on April 7 signed Senate Bill 364, which opens the door for anyone with a federal work permit to serve as a cop. In 2024 alone, the Biden administration issued over …READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
| A ‘huge win’ for bulls: Markets soar on U.S.-China deal as Wall Street sees more upside – EVOL |
| Read more… |
| Jury Unanimously Clears 3 Ex-Cops of All State Charges in Killing of Black Man That Sparked Riots – EVOL |
| Read more… |
| Governor of Mexican state says the US withdrew tourist visas from her and her husband – EVOL |
| Read more… |
| Texas Halts 402-Acre Sharia Law-Linked Muslim Community Development Amid Multiple Criminal Investigations – EVOL |
| Read more… |
| Hamas set to free US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander Monday, after striking deal with US – EVOL |
| Read more… |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
The Merch-Can-‘Til-Lists
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 11:25 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Merch-Can-‘Til-Lists
Equity markets soared, as did bond yields and the US dollar, while gold and Bitcoin dropped following the US and China taking down their tariffs by 115 percentage points to 30% for the US (on top of legacy 25% Trump 1/Biden tariffs on 2/3rds of Chinese goods and 25% sectoral tariffs) and to 10% for China for 90 days.
Some say President Trump folded, “because markets.” Or “because neo-mercantilism” as there is nothing market-like in China’s dominance of the production and the staggering trade surpluses it runs. Yet there’s certainly dotted lines being drawn on things to show where folds could go.
On the other hand, markets soared despite tariffs that were unthinkable six months ago. Moreover, Trump claimed China has agreed to remove all non-tariff barriers — like massive direct and indirect state subsidies and infrastructure — and underlined that tariffs can go back up again, if not to 145%, if a deal isn’t done by 10 August.
Yet trade partners just saw pushing back at the US can work: why rush to sign a deal like the UK’s —which aims to freeze China out of supply chains— to then see the US say it doesn’t want to decouple from Beijing, or only in key sectors? That suggests the White House is going to have to breathe fire at someone to make their point. The candidate who fits that bill best might be the EU –if Japan, South Korea, or Canada don’t get there first– and now the US will be forcing its prescription drug prices down by executive order, with parties like Europe facing higher prices as a result, there are even more issues to clash over. In short, the trade war isn’t over.
At the meta level, we just published a report on neo-mercantilist ideology, which includes both China and Trumpism. Markets are caught between ‘Merch-can-‘til-Lists’, as China cementing itself into supply chains and de-risking from the West remains its grand macro strategy, and acting against it is the US equivalent. Indeed, markets cheering the victory of a non-market economy over a market-driven one, because the latter was mirroring the former, fail to see what’s happening.
The Financial Times reports US Treasury Secretary Bessent secretly met China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an in a basement after the IMF meeting three weeks ago: recall laughter at the US claiming to have made contact with China? Apologise if you were one of them.
Oren Cass, also in the FT, underlines liberal neo-mercantilists think the US needs tariffs to push back against state-backed champions supported by illiberal neo-mercantilists: “Perhaps the free-traders are betting on the latter, and would abandon American-style capitalism altogether before allowing so blasphemous a word as “protection” to pass their lips. What they cannot have, in the modern world, no matter how ideal in theory, is free trade and a free market at the same time.” Echoing @izakaminska, he says if the US wins this trade war, we might get free and fair trade in places; and if it loses, we won’t get it anywhere. That markets either don’t see this or don’t care, “because cheap stuff/asset prices” is worth thinking about. A lot.
At the macro level China is accelerating efforts to strip foreign firms from its supply chains. US bookings for Chinese cargo just leaped 35% and firms will surge inventory; but all will be looking for alternative supply to ensure there’s no repeat of the recent de facto embargo. Taiwan’s president just proposed a global “non-Red” supply chain ex-China: but has he looked at his own recently?
In short, a 90-day trade ceasefire is likely to restock/rearm and prepare for round 2: just like the Russia-Ukraine version will be.
On which note, Trump says he may join the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks to be held Thursday in Istanbul…if he’s wanted there more than he is between India and Pakistan, where both sides have claimed victory in their recent military clashes, but the former has clearly set new rules of engagement and things remain tense.
Trump is in Riyadh today. Rumors are he may meet Syria’s ex-Islamist president, whom the US designates a terrorist, and who’s reportedly offering to build a Trump Tower in Damascus – if tall enough, it might be visible from the outer suburbs where government attacks against ethnic minorities are taking place. What other headline-grabbing moves will be made, with what market impact? One thing is for sure: it will be all about geopolitics, realpolitik, and fossil fuels rather than the ‘Liberal World Order’ (LWO) and all things green.
Nearby, the New York Times explains ‘Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia’, claiming the Pentagon spent $1bn in 30 days, lost two F-18A fighter jets and seven $30m drones, almost shot down an F-35, and used so many precision munitions it was worrying contingency planners, with CENTCOM’s metric of success being “bombs dropped.” This is an institutional mindset that assumes infinite supply chains and budget deficit and debt limits as if we were still had vintage LWO QE, negative rates, and either total US integration with the Chinese economy or a totally different US economy. The fact we have none of them –and that the US couldn’t defeat the modern equivalent of the Barbary Pirates, whom the infinitely less powerful early 19th-century US could– should worry markets vastly more than it seems to be doing.
As another indicator of the shift away from the LWO, the UK Labour Party’s PM Starmer yesterday stated mass immigration has failed economically and politically, with declining GDP per capita, lower productivity, and a greater net strain on state finances, while threatening to make Britain “an island of strangers.” This obviously copies rhetoric from the anti-immigration Reform Party now leading the opinion polls. However, the rules and legislation Starmer is proposing will only slow the pace of British net immigration to a still-high level while infuriating left-wing voters, his own MPs, and UK industries from care homes to universities. Meanwhile, counter-terror police are investigating three potential cases of arson linked to Starmer: at his London home, which is let out; another property linked to him; and on in his old car.
Simultaneously, UK pension funds are to unlock up to £50bn of investments, with half reserved for UK firms, under a new “Mansion House accord” with the government. Expect to see a lot more of this “what is GDP *for*?” state leaning on private capital ahead: as our report on neo-mercantilism shows, it’s as much a part of that ideology as tariffs.
There’s less sign of that in the US budget bill emerging from Congress, however, or at least how to pay for it. So far, it seems to be rejecting higher taxes for the wealthy and removing the carried interest loophole “because lobbyists”, while adding no tax on tips and overtime and social security, plus more defense spending, meaning around $1.5 – 2 trillion on top of US fiscal deficits over the next decade.
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
INDIA
INDIA PAKISTAN
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1114 UP 0.0019 PTS OR 19 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.86 DOWN 0.399 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3214 UP 00037 OR 37 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3984 UP 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 5.63 PTS OR 0.52%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 470.93 PTS OR 2.00%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .52%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 470.93 PTS OR 2.00%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 5.63 PTS OR 0.17%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.52%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 539.00 PTS OR 1.43%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3260.20
silver:$33.22
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.34 DOWN 0.27 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.170% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.436% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.282 UP 0 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.681 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6570 UP 0 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1145 UP .0046 OR 46 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.74 DOWN 0.509 OR YEN IS UP 51 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7255 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0027 OR 27 BASIS pts to 1.4010
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.2010, CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1975:
TURKISH LIRA: 38.77 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.436
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.460% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.901 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.971 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3236.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.68
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 2.06 PTS OR 0.02%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 34.43 pts or 0.78%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 72.02 pts or 0.31%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 113.80 pts or 0.83 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 155.88or 0.39%
WTI Oil price 62.63 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.60 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.51 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 48/ 100
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.7225 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.237 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.834 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.11186 UP 0.0091 OR 91 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3302 UP .01145 OR 107 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6710 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.435
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.49 DOWN 0.758 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3935 DOWN 0.0058 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 58 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 63.73
Brent OIL: 66.59
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.495
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 PTS to 4.939%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.024%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.248 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.838 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.81 DOWN 79 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.80 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.85 UP 1 AND 41/100 roubles
GOLD $3248.95 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 32.94(3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 1160.72 OR 2.71%
NASDAQ 100 UP 8.06.70 PTS OR 4.20%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.60 DOWN 3.31 PTS OR 15.11%
GLD: $ 298.19 DOWN 8.65 PTS OR 2.82%
SLV/ $29.63 DOWN 0.17 PTS OR OR .57%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 162.08 OR 0.64%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
MORNING NEWS
AFTERNOON NEWS:
Trump Torches Neocons & Interventionists, Emphasizes ‘Peace Through Strength’ Deal-Making, Markets Going ‘Lot Higher’ In Major Saudi Speech
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 12:55 PM
Summary:
Some highlights of President Trump’s lengthy speech before the US-Saudi Investment Forum, wherein he frequently praised his Saudi host crown prince Mohammad bin Salman and advanced peace through deal-making…
Markets Rocking
The stock market is “gonna go a lot higher.” He said “People should have listened. We’ve never had anything like this,” and he cited the “explosion of investment and jobs.” Business executives “weren’t that happy when they saw me,” a month ago, but changed their tune as markets rose,” Trump added.
“We are rocking: The United States is the hottest country, with the exception of your country,” Trump said, pointing to MbS in the front row before him.
Saudi Arabia as Global Business/Tech Hub
“Mohammed do you sleep at night? How do you sleep?” he said, addressing the crown prince. “Critics doubted it was possible, what you’ve done, but over the past eight years, Saudi Arabia has proved the critics totally wrong.”
“…Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves, the people that are right here, the people that have lived here all their lives, developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions and charting your own destinies in your own way.”
Silence befell the crowd as Trump said that it was his “fervent wish” that Saudi Arabia “will soon be joining the Abraham Accords” – but he ultimately conceded that the kingdom will do it in “it’s own time”.
“It will be a special day in the Middle East, with the whole world watching, when Saudi Arabia joins us. And you’ll be greatly honoring me, and you’ll be greatly honoring all of those people that have fought so hard for the Middle East. And I really think it’s going to be something special — but you’ll do it in your own time. And that’s what I want, and that’s what you want, and that’s the way it’s going to be.”
Iran put on Notice
“In the case of Iran, I have never believed in having permanent enemies. I am different than a lot of people think. I don’t like permanent enemies. Sometimes you need enemies to do the job, and you have to do it right. Enemies get you motivated,” Trump said.
He continued, “I want to make a deal with Iran. I can make a deal with Iran. I’ll be very happy if we’re going to make your region and the world a safer place.” He offered a “much brighter future” if Tehran will do a deal.
“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive, maximum pressure … and take all action required to stop the regime from ever having a nuclear weapon. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Lifting Sanctions on Syria
“Syria, they’ve had their share of travesty, war, killing in many years. That’s why my administration has already taken the first steps toward restoring normal relations between the United States and Syria for the first time in more than a decade,” Trump said.
“The sanctions were brutal and crippling and served as an important — really an important function — nevertheless, at the time. But now it’s their time to shine,” he added. So I say, ‘Good luck, Syria.’ Show us something very special.”
“Oh what I do for the crown prince,” Trump said to wrap
Blasted NeoCons & Liberal Interventionists
“In the end, the so-called ‘nation-builders’ wrecked far more nations than they built—and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies they did not understand,” Trump said.
“The gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called nation-builders, neo-cons, or liberal non-profits like those who spent trillions failing to develop Kabul and Baghdad.”
“In Syria, which has seen so much misery and death, there is a new government that we must all hope will succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace.”
Gaza, Yemen
“The people of Gaza deserve a much better future,” Trump said. “But that will or cannot occur as long as their leaders choose to kidnap, torture and target innocent men, women and children for political ends.”
Trump also proclaimed that he ordered the cessation of US-Houthi hostilities in the Red Sea, after the Pentagon flexed its military might.
* * *
Update(1005ET): Trump said to be moments away from speaking live from Riyadh after signing hundreds of billions of dollars in US-Saudi investment deals (watch below). “U.S. and Saudi Arabia sign largest defense sales agreement in history—nearly $142 billion, part of $600 billion investment package President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman signed in Riyadh bringing an infusion of cash to the United States,” according to a White House correspondent.
“Today in Saudi Arabia, President Donald J. Trump announced Saudi Arabia’s $600-billion commitment to invest in the United States, building economic ties that will endure for generations to come,” a fresh White House fact sheet begins. “The first deals under the announcement strengthen our energy security, defense industry, technology leadership, and access to global infrastructure and critical minerals.”
The following represent just a few of the many transformative deals secured in Saudi Arabia:
- Saudi Arabian DataVolt is moving forward with plans to invest $20 billion in AI data centers and energy infrastructure in the United States.
- Google, DataVolt, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD, and Uber are committing to invest $80 billion in cutting-edge transformative technologies in both countries.
- Iconic American companies including Hill International, Jacobs, Parsons, and AECOM are building key infrastructure projects like King Salman International Airport, King Salman Park, The Vault, Qiddiya City, and much more totaling $2 billion in U.S. services exports.
- Additional major exports include GE Vernova’s gas turbines and energy solutions totaling $14.2 billion and Boeing 737-8 passenger aircraft for AviLease totaling $4.8 billion.
- In the healthcare sector, Shamekh IV Solutions, LLC will be investing $5.8 billion, including a plant in Michigan to launch a high-capacity IV fluid facility.
- Investment partnerships include several sector-specific funds with a strong emphasis on U.S. deployment—such as the $5 billion Energy Investment Fund, the $5 billion New Era Aerospace and Defense Technology Fund, and the $4 billion Enfield Sports Global Sports Fund—each channeling substantial capital into American industries, driving innovation, and creating high-quality jobs across the United States.
* * *
If there’s one thing that’s clear by now, it’s that Saudi Arabia and the royal family loves President Donald J. Trump.
For example, in an unusual move and break with protocol, it was Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) who rushed to greet Trump the moment the president stepped off Air Force One at the Royal Terminal on Tuesday.
The greeting was typically lavish, as Trump was received at the Royal Terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, after which he and MbS walked a lavender carpet and sat down amid marble columns in navy-and-gold armchairs, as the NYT Times detailed.
“Trump lands in Saudi Arabia to a royal welcome from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,” Al-Monitor journalist Elizabeth Hagedorn pointed out. “Biden, by contrast, got the governor of Mecca.”
As Air Force One entered the kingdom’s airspace earlier Tuesday, Saudi fighter jets escorted it while approaching the Saudi capital.
And later, “The presidential limousine, nicknamed The Beast, was escorted by riders on Arabian horses as it drove to the royal court,” NYT detailed.
Among the first major events includes Trump speaking at an investment forum hosted by the Saudi government. Accompanying him are Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and other top officials.
The investment forum has also seen the Saudi crown prince greet Elon Musk as well as other important tech and silicon valley chief executives, including from BlackRock, Palantir, Nvidia, OpenAI, IMB, CitiBank, and others.
Others eyeing potential investments from the Saudis, include billionaire medical entrepreneur Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of The Los Angeles Times.
The president said before cameras upon the start of bilateral talks, “MBS is a friend, we have a good relationship.”
“I really believe we like each other a lot,” Trump added.
Trump is hoping to secure a $1 trillion investment in US industry from the kingdom, significantly over and above the crown prince’s earlier investment pledge of $600bn, upon this first stop in his Gulf tour which will later include Qatar and UAE.
Importantly, the head of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, was at the airport with MbS for Trump’s grand greeting at the VIP Royal Terminal.
Trump is more of a Diet Coke drinker, (or perhaps there was a remote fear in his mind of being poisoned?)…
President Trump salutes as the Saudis play the American National Anthem…
USA DATA
this surprised quite a few:
Despite Mainstream Panic, US Consumer Price Inflation Tumbles To Lowest In Over 4 Years
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 08:40 AM
While today’s CPI will be far less relevant now that the entire macro picture has been reset after this weekend’s trade war truce – which cut tariffs between US and China by 115% for 90 days…
…thus making any pre/post CPI number comparisons meaningless apples to oranges, the machines will certainly be reacting to what Bloomberg prints in the flashing red headline at 8:30am ET.
As we detailed here, higher-than expected inflation data is likely to accelerate the increase in yields spurred by the easing in trade tensions with China.
As Bloomberg’s Alyce Andres notes, survey data ahead of Tuesday’s April CPI report sends a clear message that firms passed rising tariff-linked costs on to consumers.
Higher Prices
- ISM Manufacturing prices expanded to 69.8, the highest since June 2022.
- ISM Services ticked up to 65.1 in April, the highest since January 2023.
- S&P Global US Manufacturing firms increased their output prices by the greatest degree since early 2023.
- S&P Global US Services prices advanced.
- Richmond Fed manufacturing showed prices received rose to 2.65 from 2.34 in March.
- New York Fed manufacturing prices received edged up to 28.7 from 22.4 in March.
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report showed prices received gained to 30.7 compared to 29.8 in March.
- Kansas City Fed manufacturing prices received surged to 29, up from 15 in March.
- Kansas City Fed non-manufacturing showed selling prices rose in April.
- Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook report showed prices received for finished goods advanced to 14.9, up from 6.3 in March.
- Dallas Fed services selling prices rose to 8.4 from 5.2 in the prior month.
- Chicago PMI showed prices expanded at a faster pace in April.
Lower Prices:
- New York Fed services report showed prices received declined to 26.0 from 28.7 in March.
- Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing data reflected a plunge in prices received to -0.1 from 8.4 in in the prior month.
- Richmond Services prices received nudged down to 3.03 compared to 3.68 in March.
Optically, inflation indicators (hard, not soft survey) have notably deflated in the last month…
Source: Bloomberg
So, what did we get – did the ‘soft’ survey data once again completely decouple from the reality of ‘hard’ actual data?
SHOCKER – Despite the panic from the establishment, headline CPI disappointed, rising 0.2% MoM (below the +0.3% exp), pulling the headline down to +2.3% YoY (below the 2.4% exp) – the lowest since February 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s quite a difference from the Democrat-sponsored surge in UMich inflation expectations (something it appears Democrats were unable to see or fear in 2021/2022 when President Biden was printing trillions in stimmies to save his base from actually working for a living)…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, commodity prices just inched back into inflation (+0.1% YoY) while Services inflation continues to slide…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline CPI 0.2% MoM. Here are the details:
- The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase.
- The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index.
- The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.
But Core Services rose MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Egg prices – so much in focus during Trump’s first few weeks after Biden’s shitshow – plunged 12.7% MoM… the biggest MoM drop since March 1984…
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI also rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) leaving it up 2.8% YoY as expected (lowest since April 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI +0.2% MoM. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April. Here are the details:
- The shelter index increased 0.3 percent over the month.
- The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent in April and the index for rent increased 0.3 percent.
- The lodging away from home index fell 0.1 percent in April.
- Shelter inflation 0.34% MoM, and 3.99% YoY, unch from a month ago and the lowest since Nov 2021
- Rent inflation 0.27% MoM, and 3.98% YoY, down from 3.99% in March and the lowest since Jan 2022
- The index for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0 percent in April, after being unchanged in March.
- The motor vehicle insurance index rose 0.6 percent in April.
- The index for education increased 0.1 percent over the month, as did the index for personal care.
- In contrast, the airline fares index fell 2.8 percent in April, after declining 5.3 percent in March.
- The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.5 percent over the month, and the indexes for communication and apparel also declined.
- The new vehicles index and the recreation index were unchanged in April.
- The medical care index increased 0.5 percent over the month.
- The index for hospital services increased 0.6 percent in April and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent over the month.
- The prescription drugs index rose 0.4 percent in April.
And drilling down even more, the so-called SuperCore CPI (Services Ex Shelter) dropped to +3.01% YoY – the lowest since Dec 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Recreation Services and Education costs are deflating…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as Goldman noted ahead of the print, whatever we do learn about tariff-related inflation today lags the rapidly-changing policy reality… so choose the size of the salt crystal to take as you react to the algos initial reaction to this data.
Is the inevitable trajectory of CPI higher given the recent surge in M2…
Source: Bloomberg
Real average weekly earnings rose 1.7% YoY – the best growth in wages since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Brace for an avalanche of this statement repeated ad nauseum all day from establishment economists – “…we’re sure the inflation from tariffs will hit next month…”
The new narrative: “lack of tariff inflation is transitory”
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
TEXAS
Texas Gov. Abbott Halts Development Of Controversial ‘Epic City’ For Muslims
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Texas Governor Greg Abbott wrote on X that his team has halted construction of a planned mixed-use development connected with East Plano Islamic Center (EPIC), one of North Texas’ largest mosques.
The 402-acre site is being transformed into a community for Muslims that includes 1,000 homes, a K-12 faith-based school, a mega mosque, elderly and assisted living, apartments, clinics, retail shops, a community college, and sports fields. It is located just 30 miles northeast of downtown Dallas.
“We’re going to demonstrate to the world what it means to be a Muslim in the West,” one of the heads of EPIC City said in a promotional video.
In March, Abbott wrote, “Legislators are considering laws to restrict it, as well as laws to prevent foreign adversaries from buying land in Texas.”
Now, Gov. Abbott laid down the hammer:
Texas has halted any construction of EPIC City. There is no construction taking place. The state of Texas has launched about a half dozen investigations into this project. That includes criminal investigations. And, the U.S. Department of justice is also investigating. This matter, and similar matters, are taken very seriously, and actions are being taken to address all concerns.
Abbott’s decision comes just days after Texas Senator John Cornyn told the Department of Justice about potential “religious discrimination” in the proposed Muslim-centric city.
“A master-planned ‘community of thousands of Muslims’ could violate the constitutional rights of Jewish and Christian Texans, by preventing them from living in this new community and discriminating against them within the community. I further encourage the Department to investigate whether Christians, Jews, and other non-Muslim minorities would receive equal protection under the law in this new community. Religious discrimination, whether explicit or implicit, is unconstitutional under the First and Fourteenth Amendments. Religious freedom is a cornerstone of our nation’s values, and I am concerned this community potentially undermines this vital protection,” Senator Cornyn wrote in a letter to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi and Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon.
The senator concluded: “Religious-based discrimination is a constitutional violation as well as a federal rights violation. Appropriate steps should be taken to ensure that this community does not run afoul of these obligations. It may also be appropriate for an investigation to explore whether the proponents of the proposed development are abiding by existing federal and state prohibitions on the enforcement of sharia law”
In a recent podcast, supporters of the proposed EPIC City development discussed plans to name streets after historic Islamic conquerors and revealed that 75% of homeowner association fees would be funneled into the mosque.
So, what laws does EPIC City support? The laws of Texas/the U.S. Constitution, or Sharia law?
Glenn Beck might have those answers…
. . .
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 15, 2025 Issue 7491 | Independent View of the News |
| U.S., China drop high tariffs, agree to 90-day pause The U.S. agreed to drop its 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods down to 30%, while China agreed to lower its tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/us-china-drop-high-tariffs-agree-90-day-pause US stocks soared when the NYSE opened. Alas, the buying was too euphoric; stocks quickly retreated. ESMs peaked (5865.75) at 7:04 ET. The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq, and the Naz 100 peaked on the NYSE opening. The DJIA and NY Fang+ Index peaked seconds after its opening; the DJTA peaked 10 minutes after its opening. The Russell 2000 peaked 11 minutes after the NYSE opening. However, major equity indices, ex-the DJTA, rallied to new daily highs in the afternoon. Trump held a press conference to tout the China deal and drug price EO. Trump: Will Do a Lot of Trade with Index, Pakistan – BBG 9:51 ET Trump: US Is Talking Trade with Index, Will Start with Pakistan – BBG 9:51 ET Trump Says He Will Speak to Xi Maybe at the End of the Week – BBG 9:55 ET Trump Says US Achieved ‘Total Reset’ with China Trade – BBG 9:56 ET Trump Says China Agrees to ‘Remove all’ Non-Monetary Barriers – BBG 9:59 ET Trump: Thursday Meeting of Russia, Ukraine Very Important – BBG 10:00 Trump: China Will Be Rewarded on Tariffs for Fentanyl Action – BBG 10:03 ET Trump: China Agreed to End Fentanyl Flow to US – BBG 10:06 ET. Trump: The Drug Lobby Is One of the Strongest in the US – BBG 10:06 ET Trump: Big Pharma Must Stop Price Gouging – BBG 10:06 ET Trump: Will Slash the Cost of Prescription Drugs – BBG 10:09 ET Trump: EU Is ‘In Many swats, Nastier than China’ – BBG – 10:13 ET Trump: Ozempic Costs More in US Then In Some Other Countries – BBG 10:17 ET Trump: Will Secure Most Favored Nations Drug Pricing – BBG 10:20 ET Trump Threatens Targeting Cars If Drug Prices Won’t Go Down – BBG 10:21 ET Trump: Will Cut Out Middleman to Accelerate Price Reduction – BBG 10:21 ET. Trump: If Necessary, We’ll Investigate the Drug Companies – BBG 10:22 ET Trump: Many Other Deals Coming – BBG 10:34 ET Trump: Good Things Happening with Iran – BBG 10:35 ET Trump: Working with Erdogan on Syria – BBG 10:36 ET Trump: Syria May Get Some Sanction Relief – BBG 10:36 ET Trump Praises Eli Lilly Investments in the US – BBG 10:48 ET Trump: Have Feeling Putin Will Agree to Ceasefire – BBG 10:50 ET Trump Says Drug Price Control Is What Was Done Before – BBG 10:52 ET Trump Signs Deal Action Aimed at Cutting Drug Prices in the US – 10:52 ET Trump: “Starting today, the United States will no longer subsidize the health care of foreign countries, which is what we were doing. We were subsidizing others health care, countries where they paid a small fraction of what for the same drug that what we pay many, many times more for. And will no longer tolerate profiteering and price gouging from Big Pharma. But again, it was really the countries that forced Big Pharma to do things that frankly, I’m not sure they really felt comfortable doing, but they’ve gotten away with it, these countries, European Union has been brutal, brutal…” https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1921945258784358436 Trump is daring Congress and the courts to halt his drug cost reduction EO. Trump has taken a huge step in reducing Big Pharma’s control of Congress. Drug company stocks rallied after the announcement because the process to enact price cuts will be long and onerous. @EricLDaugh: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just revealed that the Chinese said during their closed-door talks that they IGNORED their trade commitments under Biden because they knew he was weak. “The Chinese delegation basically told us that once President Biden came into office, they just ignored their obligations.” “We had an excellent trade agreement with China and the Biden administration chose not to enforce it.” Biden’s people totally screwed over our country in MANY ways. Weakness on the world stage caused massive damage. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1921901451061715227 After hitting a daily high of 5865.75 at 7:04 ET, ESMs sank to 5805.75 at 10:30 ET. They then rallied to 5862.00 at 14:42 ET. After a retrenchment to 5844.25 at 15:45 ET, the late manipulation forced ESMs to a new daily high of 5876.25 at 16:02 ET. Labor Department Admits Hundreds of Thousands of Biden Jobs Were Fake The Biden administration claimed to have added almost 400,000 jobs from July through September of last year, but new data released this week suggest none of those jobs ever existed… https://townhall.com/columnists/ej-antoni/2025/05/12/labor-department-admits-hundreds-of-thousands-of-biden-jobs-were-fake-n2656813 US budget surplus rises 23% to $258 billion in April, customs revenue surges The U.S. government posted a $258 billion budget surplus for April, up 23% from a year earlier, reflecting strong tax receipts in the final month of the tax season and surging collections of import duties, the Treasury Department said on Monday… Treasury reported that net customs duties in April totaled $16 billion, about a $9 billion increase from the year-earlier period… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-budget-surplus-rises-23-180957705.html Positive aspects of previous session ESMs peaked at 7:04 ET; the S&P 500 Index opened 3% higher; the Nasdaq 100 opened +3.8% June Gold declined as much as 131.80; the dollar soared. Negative aspects of previous session The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq, and the Naz 100 peaked on the NYSE opening. The DJIA peaked seconds after its opening; the DJTA peaked 10 minutes after its opening. USMs declined as much as 1 3/32. Oil and gasoline soared. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What other tariff deals are looming? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5825.21 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5845.37; 5786.08 House Republicans unveil $900B in spending cuts for Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ bill, escalating messy Medicaid fight – A mandated 80-hour-per-month work requirement on able-bodied adults ages 19 – 64 enrolled in the program. Volunteer work and school would count toward the requirement… https://nypost.com/2025/05/12/us-news/republicans-unveil-900b-in-spending-cuts-for-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-intensifying-messy-medicaid-fight/ The GOP House bill has no taxes on tips with some exceptions; a $30,000 SALT cap; NO millionaire’s tax; a the debt limit hike of $4T; spending reduction of $1.5T and $4T tax cut over 10 years; tax deduction on auto loan interest for US made cars; a 10% tax on foundations; endowment tax of 1.4% to 21% on investment income; and a $4k bonus deduction for seniors in place of no taxes on social security. The $7500 tax credit for EVs would be fully eliminated by the end of 2026. Production and investment tax credits for clean electricity would be phased out by the end of 2031. The child tax credit would be raised by $500 to $2500. WSJ Editorial Board (hates DJT): The Great Trump Tariff Rollback The President started a trade war with Adam Smith. He lost. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/u-s-china-trade-deal-tariffs-donald-trump-xi-jinping-a561d16b The usual tools are proclaiming the Nas 100 is in a new bull market because it has risen over 20% from its low. If a stock tumbles from 80 to 20, and then ticks at 24.1, does this action ordain a new bull market? Today – S&P 500 Index closed (5844.19) above its 200-day moving average (5750.37) for the first time since March 25. Stocks are extremely overbought on a short-term basis. However, anti-Trumpers and Tariff Casandras, including some widely heralded hedge fund titans, might be forced to cover shorts while others are forced to go long to chase performance. The surge in ESMs before and at the NYSE close reek of short covering. If the S&P 500 Index cannot hold its 200-DMA, astute traders will dump stuff. ESMs are -12.50; NQMs are -64.50; and USMs are -1/32 at 20:10 ET. Expected economic data: April CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.4% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.8% y/y; April NFIB Small Business Optimism 95 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5549; 100-day MA: 5774; 150-day MA: 5818; 200-day MA: 5750.37 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,02; 100-day MA: 42,344; 150-day MA: 42,694; 200-day MA: 42,249 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5844.19 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5447.29 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5532.59 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5696.97 triggers a sell signal Fox’s @BillMelugin_: DHS announces it is investigating Los Angeles County to determine whether or not federal benefits have been paid to illegal aliens there. HSI has issued a Title 8 subpoena to the Los Angeles County Department of Social Services, which administers California’s Cash Assistance Program for Immigrants (CAPI). This program provides benefits to aliens who are ineligible for Social Security due to their immigration status. DHS’ subpoena requests all records from Los Angeles County to determine if illegal aliens received Social Security Income (SSI) from the Social Security Administration. Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Los Angeles field office says their subpoena will include the following: •Applicant’s Name and Date of Birth •Copies of Applications •Immigration Status •Proof of Ineligibility for SSI from the Social Security Administration •Affidavits in Support of the Application @jackmjenkins: The Episcopal Church has announced it will end its decades-old partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners from South Africa who have been classified as refugees by the Trump admin. https://t.co/fj7Ktt5f30 Democrats Confused by Legal Immigrants Who Seem to Love America https://buff.ly/SXRyQ1Q Pope Leo XIV’s oldest brother doubles down on awful ‘drunk’ Nancy Pelosi post, reveals how new pontiff may lead Catholic Church – Pope Leo XIV’s oldest brother stood by his decision to share a social media post that referred to California Rep. Nancy Pelosi as a “drunk c–t,” declaring Monday, “I wouldn’t have posted it if I didn’t kind of believe it… since then, I’ve been very quiet, biting my tongue at some of the stuff that is out there on social media, because I don’t want to create waves that don’t need to be there because I’m a MAGA type and I have my beliefs,” he added. “I don’t need to create heat for [Leo], he’s going to have enough.”… Louis Prevost acknowledged Leo isn’t as conservative as he is… https://trib.al/yCaJnGu | |
SWAMP NEWS
DHS Investigates Los Angeles For Allegedly Providing Federal Benefits To Illegal Immigra
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Department of Homeland Security has issued a subpoena to Los Angeles County for records tied to a state-run assistance program, which the department alleges might have been used to unlawfully provide federal benefits to illegal immigrants.
Homeland Security Investigations served a Title 8 subpoena to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Social Services, which administers California’s Cash Assistance Program for Immigrants.
While the cash assistance program is a state-funded initiative, the federal subpoena seeks records from January 2021 to the present to determine whether any recipients received Supplemental Security Income benefits but who were ineligible, based on their immigration status.
The requested documents include applications, immigration status records, proof of Supplemental Security Income ineligibility, and supporting affidavits, DHS said in an announcement.
“Radical left politicians in California prioritize illegal aliens over our own citizens, including by giving illegal aliens access to cash benefits,” said Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
“If you are an illegal immigrant, you should leave now. The gravy train is over. While this subpoena focuses only on Los Angeles County—it is just the beginning.”
The move comes less than a month after President Donald Trump signed a memorandum directing federal agencies to crack down on misuse of Social Security Act funds. The April 15 directive, aimed at enforcing Executive Order 14218, calls on federal officials to identify and prevent payments to ineligible recipients, including those without lawful immigration status.
Trump’s memorandum directs federal agencies to investigate fraud and prioritize enforcement in areas with high numbers of illegal immigrants. It also calls for expanding fraud prosecution programs through special assistant U.S. attorneys, particularly targeting identity theft and improper benefit payments.
According to DHS, more than 2 million illegal immigrants were issued Social Security numbers in fiscal year 2024 under prior policies. The department said it is now working with other agencies to prevent any further disbursement of benefits to ineligible recipients.
The Social Security Administration previously expressed support for the White House memo and outlined steps it is taking to prevent future benefit fraud. In an April 16 statement, acting Commissioner Leland Dudek said the agency is committed to ensuring that benefits are “paid only to those who should receive them.”
The Social Security Administration said it is reviewing questionable earnings reports and considering whether to resume civil monetary penalties in cases of fraud. The agency also confirmed that it recently reclassified more than 6,300 Social Security numbers as ineligible after identifying recipients who had been paroled into the U.S. despite criminal records or national security concerns.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Social Services, and the California Department of Social Services did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times before publication.
Naveen Athrappully contributed to this report.
END
THIS LAW FIRM IS BAD NEWS!
Court Order Blocking Trump From Targeting Perkins Coie Is Overreach
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 09:50 AM
Authored by Kenin Spivak via RealClearPolitics,
Federal District Court Judge Beryl Howell’s injunction prohibiting the implementation of Donald Trump’s executive order restricting the Perkins Coie law firm spoils a righteous core with judicial activism.
On March 6, Trump issued an executive order asserting that “the dishonest and dangerous activity of…Perkins Coie has affected this country for decades. Notably, in 2016 while representing failed Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Perkins Coie hired Fusion GPS, which then manufactured a false “dossier” designed to steal an election…. Perkins Coie has worked with activist donors including George Soros to judicially overturn popular, necessary, and democratically enacted election laws….”
The order also accused Perkins Coie of racial discrimination, citing its “publicly announced percentage quotas in 2019 for hiring and promotion on the basis of race and other categories prohibited by civil rights laws.”
The order suspended security clearances for the firm’s lawyers and barred them from federal buildings, prohibited the government from engaging the firm, directed federal contractors to disclose if they use the firm’s services, and referred the firm to be investigated for violating civil rights laws. The order was one of several similar orders issued, or contemplated, against leading law firms.
Howell, an Obama appointee, previously served as chief judge for the District of Columbia, in which capacity she was a strong supporter of Jack Smith’s Trump prosecution. Her 120-page opinion excoriated the administration for disregarding the First Amendment and failing to comply with her orders. She criticized the content and formatting of the Justice Department’s memoranda, averred that the government had no credible evidence of racial discrimination or other wrongdoing by Perkins Coie, and rejected all of its arguments.
Howell is right that the First Amendment and principles of American justice mandate that lawyers be able to deliver candid advice and zealous advocacy to their clients. But, she goes too far by ignoring the compelling case that Perkins Coie conspired with Hillary Clinton and Fusion GPS to improperly influence the 2016 election and destabilize the Trump presidency by developing the fraudulent Steele dossier (which falsely accused Trump of being a Russian agent), and then misleading government investigators about its provenance.
She began her decision by quoting Shakespeare’s admonition to “kill all the lawyers” to make it easier to seize power, and Alexis de Tocqueville, who wrote that the legal profession “is the most powerful existing security against the excesses of democracy.” Howell then held that “using the powers of the federal government to target lawyers for their representation of clients and avowed progressive employment policies in an overt attempt to suppress and punish certain viewpoints…, is contrary to the Constitution, which requires that the government respond to dissenting or unpopular speech or ideas with tolerance, not coercion…. Simply put, government officials cannot… use the power of the State to punish or suppress disfavored expression.”
Access to unvarnished legal advice is sacrosanct, but Howell goes off the rails. She never acknowledges that much of Perkins Coie’s wrongdoing had nothing to do with its legal advice, but came in its capacity as a political kingpin. She bewilderingly asserts that using the firm’s admissions of racial discrimination violates its First Amendment rights. Her related attack on the administration’s opposition to diversity programs reveals her motives for this bizarre conclusion.
She never discusses the constitutional infirmities of requiring a client to hire a lawyer in whom they lack trust. Perkins Coie sought to destroy Trump personally and politically. Its beliefs differ from his. That is more than sufficient reason under Article II and the Fifth and Sixth Amendments that the president, who is the executive branch of government, may choose not to work with it.
On the other hand, Trump may not target Perkins Coie because its lawyers provide legal services to litigants whose positions are adverse to his administration, bar the firm from federal buildings, or require federal contractors to disclose their law firms.
The question of whether the security clearances granted to Perkins Coie lawyers may be limited is a close one, given the firm’s fraudulent manipulation of Congress and the FBI. The firm’s defenders are fixated on the fact that the partners who led its fraudulent services have moved on. So what. The firm is organized on a partnership model. Partners still at the firm likely were involved in, and benefited from, the fraud.
When progressives applaud as conservative lawyers like John Eastman are indicted and unconstitutionally subjected to disbarment for giving legal advice to President Trump on the 2020 election, it is difficult to sympathize with a law firm that engaged in a conspiracy to steal an election and topple a sitting president. Nonetheless, in a free society, government officials do not use their power to punish lawyers because of their clients or advice, while also recognizing that being a lawyer is not a free pass to commit fraud or override the constitutional powers of the president.
Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including The American Mind, National Review, the National Association of Scholars, television, radio, and podcasts.
GREG HUNTER,
harveyorganblog.com 
