GOLD CLOSED UP $38.80 TO $3,223.40
SILVER CLOSED UP $0.04 TO $32.54
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3231.20
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.56
Bitcoin morning price:$102,370 UP 605 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $103,010 up 1305 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $9.50 TO $993.45
Palladium price; UP $12.10 TO $967.05
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,512.00 UP 67.10 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2428.86 UP 30.20Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,566.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MAY 6/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2889.48 UP 40.35 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 3018.80 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)
DONATE
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,181.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/14/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/16/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 105
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 248
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 1000
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 1405
323 C HSBC 99
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 431
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 693
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 100
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2000
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10 334
905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 3,215 3,215
MONTH TO DATE: 22,508
JPMORGAN STOPPED 334/3215
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT NOTICES FOR 3215 OZ 10.000 TONNES
total notices so far: 22,508 contracts for 2,250,800 OR 70.009 tonnes)
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 168 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 840,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 14,465 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 72.325 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $38.80 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.04 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 449.193 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 558 CONTRACTS TO 137,704 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.39 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 458 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 100 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WEDNESDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE AND THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 614 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A 100 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 614 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THURSDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 458 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.39.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A HUGE 614 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.39) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH
WE HAD A 100 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 40 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 200,000 OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ:
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 74.520 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 87.450 MILLION OZ./
WE HAD:
/ STRONG COMEX OI LOSS+// A 100 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (100 CONTRACTS)/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 614 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A SMALL 7 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAYS, total 2758 contracts: OR 13,790 MILLION OZ (250 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.790 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 13.790 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 558 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.39 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 100 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 100 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND NOW MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 74.520 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 87.450 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (614 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (THURSDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 168 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 840,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 723 OI CONTRACTS TO 441,565 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 171 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (723 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $40.35 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES STANDING!
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
AND NOW MAY:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.633 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 3.183 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.183 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 70.174 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 73.357 TONNES OF GOLD
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $40.35 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2128 OI CONTRACTS (6.619 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AS WELL AS THE SAME FOR APRIL AND NOW MAY….. A MONSTROUS 73.357 TONNES DESPITE IT BEING AN OFF MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1405 CONTRACT:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,565/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 137,704 CONTRACTS!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2128 CONTRACTS WITH 723 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1405 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2128 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1142 CONTRACTS ISSUED. THIS ENDS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE T.A.S ISSUANCED AVERAGING 30,000+ FOR THIS MONTH
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1405 CONTRACT) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 723 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2128 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 73.357 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES OUR 9.978 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR MAY 13 AND 15TH ISSUANCE OF 3.183 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL 73.357 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 73.357 TONNES OF GOLD.(INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE)
.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A $40.35 COMEX PRICE LOSS.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT LOSS IN PRICE AS WE HAD OUR FAIR GAIN OF 2299 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (1405 CONTRACTS)/// FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1142 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 15,515 CONTRACTS OR 1,551,500 OZ OR 48.258 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1410 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 48.258 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 48.258 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 48.258 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 558 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,704 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 100 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 100 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 100 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 558 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 100 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 465 CONTRACTS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.39 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.325 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.39 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.23 PTS OR 0.68%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 187.49 PTS OR 0.79%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 372.62 PTS OR 0.98% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .11%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2107 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2096/ Oil DOWN TO 60.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.96 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.2107 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN 7.2096 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
END
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 723 CONTRACTS TO 441,565 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $40.35 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT STRONG PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1405 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT,MUCH TO MY ANGER A HUGE 525 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 52,500 OZ OR 1.633 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY RISES TO 3.184 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES.
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST THREE PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
MAY: 2 ISSUED SO FAR FOR 1025 CONTRACTS OR 102500 OZ OR 3.188. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!
DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2128 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUED TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. HOWEVER TODAY’S NUMBER IS FAIR AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1142 T.A.S. FOLLOWING HUGE ISSUANCES DURING OUR LAST 5 TRADING DAYS. . LAST THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER BY FAR IN COMEX HISTORY WITH FRIDAY’S BEING THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED!THE AVERAGE OF THE 5 ISSUANCES WAS 35,000+. NATURALLY THAT SIGNALS THAT WE WILL WITNESS CONTINUAL RAIDS AND IT CONTINUES TODAY!…
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE TODAY (THURSDAY) AT 9.978TONNES, THIS MONTH WE HAVE RECORDED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY AT 9.978 TONNES!!!
THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 73.357 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP AND 3.184 TONNES EX FOR RISK!)
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 222 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1405 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /JUNE 1405 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1405 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
- HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
- ZERO SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED, 1142 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY:
INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.4634 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 7 (A RECORD) + ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP MAY 9 OF 0.534 TONNES + MAY 12 AT .5132 TONNES _ MAY 13; QUEUE JUMP OF 2.444 TONNES AND THEN YESTERDAY’S MAY 14 RECORD 6.8800 TONNES AND THEN TODAY’S (MAY 15) RECORD OF 9.978 PLUS 3.183 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 73.357 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: STANDING NOW 70,174 TONNES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH) + 3.183 TONNES EX FOR RISK EQUALS 73,357 TONNES!!
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $40.35/ /)BUT THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE NOW SUCCEEDING AS GOLD ATTEMPTED TO BREACH THAT 3400 DOLLAR BARRIER AGAIN WEDNESDAY TRADING. IT IS NOW TRADING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WELL ABOVE TO THAT LEVEL AT $3204.00
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 2 ISSUANCES FOR 102,500 OZ. THIS TOTALS 3.183 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MONTH; FINAL GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// MAY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 6.619 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/APRIL 30. WE HAD A MONSTER 3208 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 320,800 OZ OR 9.978 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US SIMPLE MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD (MAY 13 AND MAY 15) EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 3.183 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 73.357 TONNES
THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 73.357 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $40.35
WE HAD A HUGE 482 CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2128 CONTRACTS OR 212,800 0Z (6.619 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 269,02. contracts: fair volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
MAY
// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
MAY 15
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | . withdrawals:3 I) 67,227.410 oz Brinks (20,902 kilobars) ii) 13,050.653 oz Malca iii) 1974.081 oz (manfra) total withdrawal 82,252.144oz (2.550 tonnes) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 3215 notice(s) 321,500 OZ 10.00000 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 53 contracts 5300 OZ 0.1604 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 22,508 notices 2,250,800 oz 72.325 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 0 customer entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:3
withdrawals:3
I) 67,227.410 oz Brinks (20,902 kilobars)
ii) 13,050.653 oz Malca
iii) 1974.081 oz (manfra)
total withdrawal 82,252.144oz
(2.550 tonnes)
adjustments: 1/
removal: from customer account JPMorgan 482.265 oz (15 kilobarts)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 3268 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 996 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 2212 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A MEGA MONSTER 3208 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE WITNESS A MONSTER 320,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP FOR 9.9778 TONNES, THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY!!!! THIS FOLLOWS YESTERDAY’S RECORD BREAKING 6.80 TONNES. FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS WE HAVE RECORDED 19.218 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS. ALL OF THIS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND ALL GOING TO CENTRAL BANKS.
JUNE LOST 7623 CONTRACTS TO 196,781. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH. THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS LOOKING AT JUNE OI.
JULY GAINED 85 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 3230
We had 3215 contracts filed for today representing 321,500 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3215 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 334 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,508 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (3268 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (3215 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,256,100 OZ OR 70.174 TONNES to which we add 3.183 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk//new totals 73.357 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (22,508 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (3268 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (3215 x 100 oz) which equals 2,256,100 OZ OR 70.174 TONNES + 3.183 tonnes = 73.357 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 73.357 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,223,601.419 oz 69.163 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,920,918.392 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,540,214.122: or 669.99 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,463,438.619 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,316,613oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 600.82tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
MAY 14
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 withdrawal entries i)Out of Brinks 1,639,583.086 oz ii) Out of HSBC 80,187.740 oz total withdrawal 1,719.770.826 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 entry/dealer i) Into Stonex: 579,189.940 oz total dealer 579,189.940 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 deposit entries//customer side/eligible i) Into Asahi 609,179.800 oz ii) Into CNT 609,096.710 oz total deposit:1,218,276.510 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 168 CONTRACT(S) (840,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 439 contract (2.195 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 14,465 Contracts (72.325 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 entry/dealer
i) Into Stonex: 579,189.940 oz
total dealer 579,189.940 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2 deposit entry//customer side/eligible
2 deposit entries//customer side/eligible
i) Into Asahi 609,179.800 oz
ii) Into CNT 609,096.710 oz
total deposit:1,218,276.510 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
2 withdrawal entries
i)Out of Brinks 1,639,583.086 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 80,187.740 oz
total withdrawal 1,719.770.826 o
ADJUSTMENTs 2
a) outright removal 1,201,821.026 oz Brinks
b) customer to dealer Stonex 5,890.400 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 217.184million oz/501,750 oz million or 43.25%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 169.094 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 501.750Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 607 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT. WE HAD 39 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 40 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 200,000 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR TODAY. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 11 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2966 CONTRACTS. JUNE OI REFUSES TO LIQUIDATE
WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE OVER 14 MILLION OZ STAND FOR JUNE/AN OFF MONTH
AS IT IS NOW THE FRONT MONTH.
JULY LOST 676 CONTRACTS UP TO 105,095
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 168 or 0.840 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 51,636poor//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,465 X5,000 oz = 72.325 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (607) AND the number of notices served upon today (168 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (14,465) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(607) minus number of notices served upon today (168)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 74.520 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 87.450 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 87.450 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 167.609million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 931.92 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 449.193 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
Schiff Slams Clueless Fed, Says Powell Is Living In A Kind Of “Baghdad Bob World”
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 03:25 PM
In Wednesday’s episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter unpacks the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold rates steady, dissecting Jerome Powell’s latest press conference for its contradictions and disconnect from the economic realities faced by Americans. He also critiques ongoing trade policy blunders and warns that political posturing could lead the U.S. into a major economic downturn.
Peter opens by reflecting on the Fed’s latest move and the market’s reaction, pointing out the gap between Powell’s rhetoric and investors’ response:
Well as expected [last week], the federal reserve left interest rates unchanged. The fed funds target remains between 4.25 and 4.5%. You know, I think this was one of the most hawkish press conferences that I’ve seen Powell participate in. You wouldn’t really know that by the reaction in the stock market. Stock market kind of, you know, just ignored what Powell said. The bond market did get a boost as you would expect.
Noting the mismatch between the Federal Reserve’s statements and actual inflation data, Peter takes issue with Powell’s assertion that inflation expectations remain grounded:
First of all, in the prepared remarks, one of the interesting comments– or more lie than comment– is that Powell said that inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed’s job is to make sure they stay that way. Now, I don’t know what world Powell is living in, you know, kind of like the Baghdad Bob world from the Gulf War because inflation expectations left the 2% anchor a long time ago. I mean, hasn’t Powell been paying attention to any of the Michigan numbers that have been coming out on inflation expectations that show, I think, one year expectations with a six handle and five year expectations have got at least a four handle? So we’re nowhere near 2%.
Peter is quick to highlight how the Fed’s optimistic portrayal of the economy doesn’t match the underlying risks. He questions how Powell can call the current situation “a great place” when real economic indicators tell a different story:
How is Powell describing the economy as being in a great place? How is he saying that inflation is in a great place? How was he saying that the labor market is in a great place? It doesn’t sound like a great place to me. I mean, a great place would be that the odds of higher inflation are going down, right, not where the odds are going up… That would be a good place, but when you’re admitting that the odds of higher inflation are going up, that’s pretty far from a great place.
Turning from monetary policy to international trade, Peter addresses the persistent uncertainty around trade negotiations with China. He suggests that China would be wise to reduce its reliance on American consumers, who are increasingly unable to afford the goods they import:
But I don’t have a lot of optimism for these China trade talks. And in fact, what I think the Chinese may finally be doing is the right thing. They’ve been resisting doing the right thing for a long time because there’s always some short-term pain. Because the biggest mistake that China made, and I’ve been talking about this for decades now, was hitching its cart to our wagon. They tried to service the US consumer, supply the US consumer with goods, without recognizing that the US consumer was broke and really couldn’t afford to pay for the goods.
Peter concludes with a critique of protectionist policy, using a recent proposal by Donald Trump as a case study in economic misunderstanding. He points out the self-defeating nature of a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-made films—a move that threatens an industry where the U.S. actually excels internationally:
Probably the most ridiculous thing that the president said this week wasn’t even during that interview. It was on a post on Truth Social out of the blue. Trump posts, ‘I’m going to impose a hundred percent tariff on movies filmed outside the United States.’ A hundred percent tariff, right? First of all, the movie industry, Hollywood motion pictures, that’s one of our industries that we have a trade surplus. We export a lot more movies than we import. So movies, the motion picture industry, Hollywood entertainment, that is not a problem that Donald Trump needs to fix.
Be sure to check out Peter’s other analysis from the Mining Network!
2, EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
The true cost of abandoning Say’s Law
Keynes trashed Say’s Law to invent macroeconomics — a non-science full of errors, anti-market, and pro-government interfering. It has led to today’s increasingly visible crisis.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 15∙Paid |
The magnitude of the error cannot be emphasised enough. Imagine employing an electrician ignorant of Ohm’s Law: sooner or later he will blow up your wiring and probably himself and your house as well. Similarly, the consequences of ignoring the truth in French economist Jean-Baptiste Say’s writings, collectively summarised as Say’s Law, blows up entire economies. As Ohm’s Law is the basis of everything electrical and electronic, Say’s description of how the division of labour and specialisation of skills works was and is still the basis of all economic activity.
Ignoring what Say wrote over two centuries ago is leading to our economic destruction, and that destruction is laid at Keynes’s door.
Denying this fundamental truth is what Keynes did with his General Theory, of Employment, Interest and Money published in 1936. It provided the foundation for today’s macroeconomics. The root of Keynes’s misconception was his desire to justify state intervention in the economy. In order to do so he had to dismiss free market capitalism, and with it the central tenet of classical economics — Say’s Law. This problem clearly occupied his mind in the 1930s, and he could not dismiss it. But he had to for his General Theory to make apparent sense.
In that seminal work, his references to Say’s Law were only two in number, both of them early on in the General Theory so that he could develop his thesis in the rest of the book. When deceiving a reader, do it early in obfuscatory language and then move on.
Keynes’s was the most credible example of other endeavours by his contemporaries to escape the strictures of Say’s Law in an attempt to progress economics beyond its classical origins. He takes to task the theory that he describes as “Say’s Law, that the aggregate demand price of output as a whole is equal to its aggregate supply price for all volumes of output” by misconstruing the concept — that is the deceit. Note that the central elements of the division of labour, which is what Say was all about, is missing from Keynes’s offhand dismissal.
From the division of labour, which is an uncontroversial fact, we get to explain the functions of money, credit, and prices in an economy. Dismiss it, and you will be like the hapless ignorant electrician who is a danger to himself, you, and your property.
Jean-Baptiste Say never condensed what was subsequently ascribed to his name into a short aphorism. Instead, he wrote a book, Traité d’Économie Politique, first published in 1803, which by its sixth edition had almost doubled in length. Say’s skill was to describe in terms accessible to the reading public the principles of free markets and sound money, and why they delivered economic progress. He explained it in the context of individuals and their interaction, despising the manipulation of people for social engineering. Like the Austrian School that later emerged following Carl Menger from the 1870s onwards, he convincingly demolished the cost theory of labour and mathematical economics. Murray Rothbard put it this way:
In a surprising and perceptive prefigurement of modern controversies, Say goes on to explain why the logical deductions of economic theory should be verbal rather than mathematical. The intangible values of individuals, with which political economy is concerned, are subject to continuing and unpredictable change: “subject to the influence of the faculties, the wants and the desires of mankind, they are not susceptible of any rigorous appreciation, and cannot, therefore, furnish any data for absolute calculations”. The phenomena of the moral world, noted Say, are not subject to strict arithmetical computation.
Another important element ignored by Keynes was time. A business has to make payments ahead of its sales. It has to buy materials and assemble the other factors of production. It has to pay suppliers, including the acquisition of higher levels of production; all this in advance of selling a single unit of production. To equate, as Keynes appeared to do, today’s sales with today’s consumption is wrong, because a business has to pay its employees ahead of their production being realised, for which it requires monetary capital.
Clearly, Say’s observations were chalk to Keynes’s cheese, disproving everything that followed on from his denial of what had become a cornerstone of free market economics.
The concept of the division of labour was only part of Say’s Traité. Behind Say’s Law, there is a truism, that over the longer term there must be a balance between what is produced and what is consumed. We work with our specialised skills to maximise our output so that we can acquire those goods and services that we need and desire. To allege, as Keynes did, that this is the same as “that the aggregate demand price of output as a whole is equal to its aggregate supply price for all volumes of output” arrives at the wrong conclusion by skating over the relevant factors.
Central to Say’s actual argument was that changes in demand would lead to surpluses of some commodities and shortages of others, which would, left to markets correct themselves through the price mechanism — that’s why it is nonsense to ignore the role of money and prices. A fall in some commodity and goods prices would create unemployment — that much is obvious. But left to themselves in free markets, unemployment and the opportunities created elsewhere would always correct this situation over time. It is central to how free markets continually evolve to meet the needs and wants of consumers.
Government intervention is therefore undesirable and unnecessary and can only hamper the market’s natural tendency to adjust to an ever-changing situation, which is the condition necessary for economic progress. By denying Say’s Law, Keynes was misleading us by claiming a short-term adjustment problem was the same as an absolute one.
Furthermore, the division of labour requires capital resources backed by savings, without which it cannot deliver its potential. Another example of Keynes’s wilful deception was his paradox of savings argument to boost immediate consumption.
As a mathematician Keynes had little or no understanding of deductive aprioristic theory. He demonstrated a bias against the “unearned” income of the idle rich living off the interest on their capital. But the role of savings was fully addressed by Say. He explained why capital as a fund of savings naturally earns interest. Capital is a tool of business and of calculation, and money is the only form of capital whose cost is so denominated. Just as commodities have a price, and labour its wages, the time-use of capital comes with a cost. And that cost, its freely set interest rate is an integral part of functioning markets.
Savings as a source of capital are needed by entrepreneurs, who are prepared to bid up for them having estimated an interest rate in their business calculations and knowing what rate of interest is affordable to a project.
This is not the usurious assumption that Keynes appear to have assumed; that greedy work-shy capitalists withhold their spending, thereby restricting output potential. Furthermore, Keynes’s mathematical macroeconomics has driven us down a blind alley whose endpoint is now reached. His paradox of thrift is such a case: it damages current consumption by saving. Therefore, do away with savings to enhance consumer demand.
Simply put that was the level of his thinking. It was the same with interest rates. But the manipulated trend towards zero, and even negative interest rates in some places in recent years has depleted savings as a source of finance. The belief that lowering interest rates stimulates production and consumption has been found wanting.
Instead, we have unlimited quantities of fiat currency, which over time have eroded everyone’s purchasing power. So why, are we not seeing Keynes’s vision being realised?
The answer lies in those few paragraphs which Keynes used to deceive in his General Theory by denying the validity of Say’s Law. There is no role for governments to intervene in an economy other than a destructive one. The true cost of increasing economic intervention is measured in the declining purchasing power of every governments’ currencies, which are being debauched at an accelerating rate relative to real money in common law, which is gold.
For some time, it has become an unstoppable process, logically ending in the existential global monetary crisis we can now envisage.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4/On LFTV, Andrew Maguire
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-05-11 08:39 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:38a ET Sunday, May 11, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Coin and bullion dealer Miles Franklin’s Andy Schectman is London metals trader Andrew Maguire’s guest on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live From the Vault” program, and they discuss how gold has preserved wealth through centuries of monetary and political upheaval.
They also discuss the developing world’s challenge to the pricing of gold by derivatives in Western markets, a challenge that is leading to a worldwide revaluation of gold.
The program is 52 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
END
B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//COPPER
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
Coinbase Hacked After Attackers Bribed Company’s Own Employees To Leak Customer Data
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 10:25 AM
Coinbase, the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, was hit by a $20 million extortion attempt after cybercriminals recruited “multiple contractors or employees working in support roles outside the United States to collect information from internal Coinbase systems to which they had access”, and to leak user data, the company said according to CoinTelegraph.
According to a May 15 blog post and an 8K filing with the SEC, Coinbase said a group of external actors bribed and coordinated with several customer support contractors to access internal systems and steal limited user account data.
“These insiders abused their access to customer support systems to steal the account data for a small subset of customers,” Coinbase said. In an email to clients, the exchange said that the leaked information “did not include your password, seed phrase, private keys, or any other information that would allow someone to directly access your account or your funds and Coinbase Prime was untouched”; but the hack could have included information like:
- Personal identifiers (e.g., name, date of birth, masked social security numbers (last 4 digits), masked bank account numbers and some bank account identifiers, address, phone number, email address)
- Images of Government identification information (e.g., driver’s license number, passport number, national identity card number)
- Account information (e.g., transaction history, balance, transfers, date you opened your account)
Less than 1% of Coinbase’s monthly transacting users’ data was affected by the attack, the company said.
After stealing the data, the attackers attempted to extort $20 million worth of Bitcoin from Coinbase in exchange for not disclosing the breach. Coinbase refused the demand. Instead, the company offered a $20 million reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of those responsible for the scheme.
In 2024, Coinbase was the most impersonated cryptocurrency brand by scammers.
Coinbase said it will reimburse users who were tricked into sending cryptocurrency to phishing scammers, with expected remediation and reimbursement expenses ranging from $180 million to $400 million.
The crypto exchange disclosed the estimate in an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on May 15, noting the expenses relate to “voluntary customer reimbursements” and other remediation efforts.
The attackers have been approaching the exchange’s overseas customer support agents for months, aiming to “bribe” them in exchange for customer information, said Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong in a May 15 X post.
The exchange said that following the attack it would strengthen its internal data management processes and relocate some of its customer support operations to avoid similar incidents.
Social engineering schemes are a growing concern for Coinbase users. Blockchain security analyst ZachXBT estimated that users lost around $45 million to phishing schemes in the week leading up to May 7.
The blockchain security analyst previously claimed that social engineering scams cost Coinbase users over $300 million annually, Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 4.
end
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.23 PTS OR 0.68%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 187.49 PTS OR 0.79%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 372.62 PTS OR 0.98% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .11%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2107 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2096/ Oil DOWN TO 60.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.96 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.2107 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN 7.2096 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
END
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2107 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2096 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.23 PTS OR 0.68%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 187.49 PTS OR 0.79%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 372.62 PTS OR 0.98%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.72// EURO RISES TO 1.1193 UP 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.473//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 145/98…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6590/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.680 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.288%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.436
3j Gold at $3276.90 Silver at: 32.16 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 9 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.46
3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.14// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.455% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8385 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9385 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.513 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.952 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.026 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.69
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.730 UP 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.248 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.836 DOWN 1 PTS
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2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop Ahead Of Data Deluge, Powell Speech
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 08:15 AM
US equity futures are lower as investors take profits on Thursday and tech stocks fell as investors worried about an economic slowdown after Steve Cohen warned the chance of a recession is 45% and today’s retail sales numbers are expected to be a miss. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, rebounding from session lows after Walmart reported solid earnings; Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5% with Nvidia, Palantir and Tesla falling about 2% in early trading. On Wednesday, the S&P failed at 5,900 for the second consecutive day. The silver lining according to JPM is that yesterday, NVDA turned positive on the year, joining META and MSFT; if the remaining members follow suit, there is another ~10% upside to the index assuming positive members are flat. YTD, AMZN is -4.2%, GOOG -12.6%, TSLA -13.9%, and AAPL -15.2%. In trade news, China removed curbs on rare earth exports to the US. Trump says India is willing to drop is tariffs on US goods. Brent sank below $64, down more than 3% after President Donald Trump said the US is getting closer to a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, fueling concern that additional oil supply may pressure the market. Bond yields and the USD are lower. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales which are expected to remain unchanged in April (versus 1.5% prior); PPI, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing numbers are due at 8:30 am in New York, while Industrial Production prints at 9:15am. Also, traders are looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In premarket trading, UnitedHealth shares sank after the WSJ reported it’s under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. Walmart delivered another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth, and cautioned that tariffs and increasing economic turbulence means even the world’s largest retailer can’t hold off on price increases forever. Shares gained 2.4% premarket. Magnificent Seven stocks are lower as risk appetite falters (Tesla -1.8%, Apple -1%, Meta Platforms -1%, Amazon -0.8%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -0.6%, Microsoft -0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Alibaba ADRs (BABA) decline 5.6% after reporting revenue that missed estimates, dragged by a slowing international e-commerce arm and its Cainiao logistics business that’s under restructuring.
- Boot Barn (BOOT) rises 13% after the retailer of western wear gave a forecast for 1Q same-store sales growth that surpassed Wall Street estimates, despite an expected hit from tariffs.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) rises 3.3% after the company gave a solid forecast for revenue in the current quarter, a sign the largest seller of networking gear is benefiting from demand for systems using AI technology.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fall 6.6% after the cloud-computing provider’s quarterly profit forecast missed estimates due to some spending being brought forward.
- Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) shares are down 2.4% in premarket trading, after Mizuho Securities downgraded the software company to neutral from outperform.
- DXC Technology (DXC) shares are down 14% after the company reported forecast adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter and 2026 full-year guidance that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Dlocal (DLO) shares gain 21% after the financial technology company beat earnings expectations and unveiled plans for a special dividend.
- Foot Locker (FL) is up 84% with Dick’s Sporting Goods to buy it in a cash or stock deal implying an equity value of about $2.4 billion and an enterprise value of about $2.5 billion.
- JetBlue (JBLU) falls 1.6% after Raymond James downgraded the airline company to market perform from outperform, citing a more balanced risk-reward amid an improvement in sentiment.
- Luminar (LAZR) drops 13% after the automotive technology company’s CEO Austin Russell resigned as CEO, overshadowing better-than-expected first-quarter sales.
- NetEase ADRs (NTES) are up 6.7% after the China-based video-game company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
- New Fortress Energy (NFE) shares slump 38% after the energy infrastructure firm saw adj. Ebitda plunge in the first quarter, with analysts flagging that the sale of its Jamaican assets will dent cash flow.
There’s also some big company news to digest. Trump wants Apple to stop moving iPhone production to India, while Starbucks is said to be considering options to revamp its China business, including a possible stake sale.
Economic forecasters this week have said that while the Trump administration’s temporary trade deal with China has reduced the risk of a recession, the overall economy is likely to slow. “There’s definitely more clarity than a few weeks ago,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief of global markets strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Some of the uncertainty around trade, tariffs, policy started to get reined in.”
“The market is globally priced for perfection,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “The retail sales figures should reveal that consumer is already depressed in terms of business confidence.”
Meanwhile, billionaire Steve Cohen, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference on Wednesday, put the chances of a US recession at about 45%. Cohen, the founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, said he doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates right away, because “they are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.” He said he expects US economic growth next year to slow to 1.5% or less, “which is OK but not phenomenal.”
Looking at today’s macro data, Retail sales are expected to rise by a tepid 0.1% in April (versus 1.5% prior) according to Bloomberg economists, while a survey of economists is pointing to flat month-on-month sales. PPI and Empire Manufacturing numbers are due at 8:30 am in New York. Traders were looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as data on manufacturing and retail sales, for the next readout on US growth and inflation. Economists are expecting no growth in retail sales in April as consumers cut back on some purchases.
European stocks retreat for a second day. Energy stocks lead declines, driven by a fall in oil prices following a report that Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in a deal with the US, while utilities and food and beverage stocks outperform. Among individual stocks, insurance firm Allianz drops after disappointing results. Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 542.88 with 327 members down, 263 up, and 10 little changed. Here are the biggest European movers:
- KBC shares rise as much as 2.6% after the Belgian lender reported earnings that analysts said were roughly in line with expectations, and saw a boost from increased insurance revenues.
- Engie shares gain as much as 2.2% after the utility produced what analysts said were strong results that should provide further comfort around full-year guidance and the dividend.
- Serco shares rise as much as 6.9% after the outsourcing-services company announced the award of three contracts with a combined value of more than £1b to provide maritime services for the Royal Navy.
- Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.7% after the watch seller’s update showed no deterioration in trends in either the UK or US, providing some relief to investors.
- Energy stocks are the worst-performing sector as oil falls following a report that Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in a deal with the US in exchange for sanctions relief.
- Allianz shares fall as much as 3.9% after the German insurer reported earnings that analysts called disappointing.
- 3i shares drop as much as 8.1% following the private equity firm’s full-year results, with net asset value per share coming in marginally below analyst expectations.
- Deutsche Telekom shares decline as much as 1.2% after the telecom operator reported mixed trends in its home market Germany.
- Thyssenkrupp shares fall as much as 14% after the German firm reported what Morgan Stanley called a substantial miss. Analysts see challenges reaching full-year guidance.
- Orsted shares drop as much as 4.7%, to the lowest since December 2016, after Berenberg analysts cut their rating on the stock to hold from buy.
- Siemens shares fall as much as 4.4% after the German industrial group reported a solid set of second-quarter earnings, with analysts noting continued improvement for the key Digital Industries division.
- CVC Capital shares fall as much as 3.2%, with analyst saying that the buyout firm’s fee paying AUM for the first quarter disappointed as some funds reached the end of their fee-paying periods.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped, poised to snap a four-day win streak, as the rally fueled in part by reduced fear over US tariffs fizzled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with Toyota, and Sony among the biggest drags, as a stronger yen weighed on Japanese equities. Key gauges fell more than 1% each in Thailand and the Philippines. Tencent dipped despite upbeat earnings, weighing on key Hong Kong gauges, as investors await Alibaba’s results later Thursday. The market had been looking for major Chinese tech reports to provide the next catalyst. Despite the muted response to the US-China trade truce, some market watchers are turning more positive on Chinese stocks. Strategists at Goldman Sachs have raised their Chinese stocks index targets. Morgan Stanley said MSCI China’s onshore stocks saw “meaningful improvement” in the first quarter results over the previous three months, marking the first in-line outcome after 14 quarters of misses.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declines 0.3%. The pound adds 0.2% with little reaction seen after UK GDP in the first quarter topped estimates as the period precedes a sharp rise in US tariffs.
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by front end and belly, unwinding a portion of Wednesday’s selloff when Fed-policy pricing saw a hawkish shift. US yields are 2bp-3bp lower across maturities led by 5-year sector with 10-year near 4.51%. European government bonds also gain: bunds and gilts outperform, supporting Treasuries, following wave of European data including UK GDP and industrial production and French CPI. Slide in oil futures also supports Treasuries. US session includes April retail sales data and remarks by Fed Chair Powell on the central bank’s monetary policy framework review (text release expected at 8:40am New York time).
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures have pared a 4.2% drop to about 3.7%, extending losses for a second day after US President Trump said an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program is closer. Spot gold falls $11 to around $3,167/oz having pared an earlier fall.
US economic data calendar includes May Empire manufacturing, April retail sales, PPI, weekly jobless claims, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), April industrial production (9:15am), March business inventories, May NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Powell (8:40am) and Barr (2:05pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.4%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
- DAX -0.3%
- CAC 40 -0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.5%
- VIX +0.6 points at 19.2
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1229.3
- euro +0.3% at $1.1208
- WTI crude -4.1% at $60.55/barrel
Top Overnight News
- U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms. The agreement would see the country foreswear highly enriched uranium in exchange for an easing of economic sanctions. RTRS
- U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that India had offered a trade deal that proposed “no tariffs” for American goods, while expressing his dissatisfaction with Apple’s plans to invest in India. New Delhi is seeking to clinch a trade deal with the U.S. within the 90-day pause announced by Trump on April 9 on tariff hikes for major trading partners. RTRS
- US officials seeking to negotiate trade deals around the world are not working to include currency policy pledges in the agreements, according to a person familiar with the matter. Foreign-exchange markets are on edge over concerns President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking a weaker greenback and might use trade bargaining to achieve that goal. BBG
- Trump asked Apple’s Tim Cook to stop plans to move iPhone output to India. The president said Apple will increase production in the US as a result of their discussion. BBG
- US authorities are preparing to announce one of the biggest cuts in banks’ capital requirements for more than a decade, marking the latest sign of deregulation agenda for the Trump administration. FT
- Trump says the US will upgrade the F-35 to an F-55; will do an F-22 super, an upgrade on the F-22.
- UnitedHealth shares dropped premarket after the WSJ reported it’s under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. The company said it hasn’t been notified by the DOJ. BBG
- Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, could travel to Washington as soon as next week for a third round of trade talks with the U.S., two sources with knowledge of the plans told Reuters on Thursday. RTRS
- Ignoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to meet for direct high-level talks in Turkey, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dispatched to Istanbul a team of junior officials, making it uncertain that negotiations between the warring nations would occur at all. WSJ
- Oil demand growth to slow according to the latest IEA report – “Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.” IEA
Tariffs/Trade
- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the US and EU have agreed to intensify trade talk contacts.
- WTO chief warned that US bilateral tariff deals could put trade principles at risk and said global trade was in a crisis despite the recent de-escalation of the US-China tariff war, according to FT.
- US Treasury secretary Bessent says they can accomplish “a lot” over the next 90 days; will have a series of negotiations to prevent escalation with China again.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher. ASX 200 traded indecisively but eventually eked mild gains in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected jobs data from Australia. Nikkei 225 underperformed following recent currency strength and as earnings results remained in the spotlight in Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid little in the way of fresh catalysts to spur momentum, while Tencent shares traded indecisively post-earnings and Alibaba results are scheduled for release today.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi hopes the Danish Chamber of Commerce in China and member companies will continue to role as a bridge between China and Denmark and between China and Europe, according to Xinhua.
- PBoC Governor Pan said China welcomes more outstanding Latin American market players to issue Panda bonds in China and share market development opportunities, while he added that China and Latin America should promote financial cooperation in a wider range of fields and a deeper level.
Subdued sentiment across Europe after the predominantly lower APAC handover, and following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher. Newsflow this morning has been light but earnings picked up, whilst current focus remains on geopolitical ongoings with US President Trump in the Middle East, consolatory language from Iran, and a likely no-show from Russia President Putin in Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey. Sectors are mostly a defensive bias and in line with the cautious mood across the markets.
Top European News
- Plans for a reset of UK-EU relations hit trouble due to fishing rights and youth mobility as EU member states demanded further concessions from the UK, according to the FT.
FX
- DXY subdued and contained within Wednesday’s confines amid a lack of fresh catalysts overnight, n a 100.58-101.05 range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s 100.27-101.14 parameter.
- EUR ekes mild gains and trades on either side of the 1.1200 level after recent fluctuations, and with ECB speakers scheduled later, although data and speakers today are not likely to shift the dial much.
- GBP is slightly firmer following better-than-expected UK GDP data; GBP/USD resides within yesterday’s 1.3250-1.3360 range.
- USD/JPY retreated overnight as the underperformance in Japanese stocks spurred some haven flows into the yen.
- Antipodeans are subdued in-fitting with the broader risk tone; mild support was seen in AUD/USD following the stronger-than-expected employment data from Australia.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1963 vs exp. 7.2217 (Prev. 7.1956).
Fixed Income
- Another contained start for fixed income with USTs marginally in the green while peers across the pond resided slightly in the red in the early morning.
- USTs at a 109-26 peak with gains of a handful of ticks. While firmer, the benchmark remains markedly shy of peaks from the last three sessions at 110-09+, 110-15 and 110-19+ respectively.
- Bunds find themselves attempting to make a footing above the break-even mark at the top-end of a 129.13 to 129.47 band.
- Gilts gapped higher by 17 ticks, before then slipping to a shortlived 91.02 low given the readacross from EGBs at the time. Currently, at the mid-point of a 91.02-22 band.
- UK sells (via tender) GBP 2.0bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.52x, average yield 3.768% & tail 0.7bps
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are suffering losses of USD 2/bbl, with commentary surrounding Iran applying steady pressure overnight and through the morning so far. US President Trump said the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, and they are in serious peace negotiations, adding that Iran has “sort of” agreed to the terms of a deal. This constructive commentary surrounding the nation pushed benchmarks to fresh session lows, adding to overnight losses. Losses overnight also stemmed from geopolitics, following a report that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons and getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. The aforementioned lows for WTI and Brent are currently USD 60.65 and 63.63/bbl.
- Spot Gold is extending on recent losses with demand subdued as it sits below the USD 3,200/oz mark. The trend seen for most of this week remains intact, with the metal continuing to be hit by higher yields, particularly on the short end.
- Copper Futures are lower by a percent, mostly owing to a downbeat risk sentiment in APAC hours. It currently trades towards session lows of USD 9,467/t, after being modestly pressured around the time of Trump commentary.
- IEA lifts 2025 average oil demand growth forecast by 20k BPD to 740k BPD on upward revision to GDP growth forecast and lower oil prices; sees global oil demand growth dropping to 650k BPD for remainder of 2025, from 990k BPD in Q1. “Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and by extension oil demand,”. IEA sees oil inventories rising by around 720k BPD in 2025 as global supply rises expected to considerably outpace demand growth. IEA hikes 2025 global supply growth forecast to 1.6mln BPD, up by 380k BPD from previous month’s report on higher Saudi production outlook. IEA raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 760k BPD (prev forecast 690k BPD).
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday
- Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says no chance Russian President Putin will take part in Turkey talks, according to Ria.
- US President Trump says he will go to the Russia-Ukraine talks if appropriate.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Qatar’s PM said Israeli attacks in Gaza this week send a signal that they are not interested in negotiating a ceasefire, while he added that a US humanitarian plan for Gaza is not necessary and the UN should be allowed to deliver aid, according to CNN.
- Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced it will launch operations in the Gaza Strip before the end of the month and stated that Israel has agreed to expand the number of distribution sites to serve the entire population of Gaza.
- US President Trump said Qatar is working with the US on negotiating an Iran deal and he wants to see Iran thrive.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran will not bow to any bullying from US President Trump who he suggested thinks that he can come to the region, chant slogans, and scare them.
- Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.- US President Trump says the US getting close to doing a deal with Iran; in serious negotiations to achieve peace; don’t want to take a second step and threaten Iran. Want to end Iran in an intelligent way, not destructive
Geopolitics: Other
- China’s Hainan Maritime Safety Administration warned of military training taking place in an area of the South China Sea from May 15th to 16th and prohibited entry, while it noted there were some drills near Vietnam and China’s Hainan.
- Russia sent a fighter jet to “check the situation” as Estonia was attempting to detain a Russian shadow fleet tanker, according to the Estonian Foreign Minister; jet violated NATO territory for “around a minute”.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: May Empire Manufacturing, est. -8, prior -8.1
- 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0%, prior 1.4%, revised 1.45%
- 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%, revised 0.86%
- 8:30 am: Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.56%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
- 8:30 am: Apr PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.3%
- 8:30 am: May 10 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 227.5k, prior 228k
- 8:30 am: May 3 Continuing Claims, est. 1890k, prior 1879k
- 8:30 am: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. -11, prior -26.4
- 9:15 am: Apr Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.3%
- 9:15 am: Apr Capacity Utilization, est. 77.8%, prior 77.8%
- 10:00 am: Mar Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 10:00 am: May NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 40, prior 40
Central bank speakers
- 5:00 am: 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 8:40 am: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Framework Review
- 2:05 pm: Fed’s Barr Gives Opening Remarks
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The strong recent equity rally showed some signs of exhaustion over the past 24 hours, even though gains for the tech mega caps helped the S&P 500 (+0.10%) extend its gains since the closing low on April 7 to +18.26%. On the other hand, Treasuries came under renewed pressure with the 10yr yield (+7.1bps) closing above 4.5% for the first time since February as investors continued to price out Fed rate cuts and increased their focus on the US fiscal outlook. The moves added to the mixed performance across US asset classes since early April, with the S&P 500 now +3.91% above the pre-Liberation Day levels but 10yr Treasuries (+40bps) and the dollar index (-2.67%) having lost considerable ground.
Trump’s Middle East tour continued to generate headlines yesterday, but their market impact was narrower in comparison to Tuesday’s rally. One notable beneficiary was Nvidia (+4.16%), which moved back into the green YTD after the oil giant Saudi Aramco signed agreements of as much as $90bn with a slew of US companies, including with Nvidia on AI infrastructure. That helped the Magnificent 7 rise +1.75% on the day, while the NASDAQ was +0.72% higher. Elsewhere, more than $243bn of deals were announced during Trump’s visit to Qatar, with the White House saying this would lay the groundwork for a bigger $1.2trn economic pledge. This included a $96bn deal to buy up to 210 Boeing aircraft. Boeing’s shares closed +0.64% on the day, having been +3% intra-day after Trump announced the deal. The president is in the UAE today, so expect more announcements.
Outside of tech the equity mood was actually pretty weak, as the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (-0.62%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.88%) posted visible declines. This weaker performance was also visible in Europe as the STOXX 600 (-0.24%) ended its four-day winning streak, with the DAX (-0.47%) and CAC (-0.47%) leading the decline. Among the reasons for a stalling of the equity rally was a relative absence of trade headlines, although Bloomberg reported that India’s trade minister is set to visit the US this week to discuss tariffs.
With the recent surge driven by US-China trade discussions waning, Asian equity markets are also losing momentum this morning. Across the region, the Nikkei (-0.98%) is the biggest laggard, with the KOSPI (-0.43%) also in the red. In China, the CSI (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.42%) and Hang Seng (-0.25%) are moderately lower. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.27%) is an exception in the region, trading higher. In the US, S&P 500 futures are -0.18% lower while those on the NASDAQ are near flat.
Yesterday’s more notable market milestones came for Treasuries, with 2yr (+5.1bps to 4.05%) and 10yr (+7.1bps to 4.54%) yields both closing at their highest levels since February. And the 30yr yield rose +6.7bps to 4.97%, its highest close since January and within touching distance of the 5% level it briefly breached on the evening of April 8, the night before Trump announced a 90 day delay to the reciprocal tariffs. So we are now reaching yield levels that previously seemed to trigger sensitivity from the US administration, though the recent moves are much more orderly than they were in early April.
The bond sell-off came amid an ongoing reversal in Fed rate cut expectations, with fed funds futures moving to price less than two cuts by year-end for the first time since February (-3.9bps to 49bps). That came as Fed speakers struck a measured tone, with San Francisco Fed President Daly saying that “the word of the day is patience” while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that a “solid hard data economy is still there” beneath the recent noise.
Meanwhile on the US fiscal side, the Republicans’ planned economic package continued to take shape, with the House Ways and Means Committee advancing the proposed tax portion that included an extension of 2017 tax cuts, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay and creating some new tax deductions, although some key issues such as the state and local tax deduction remain unresolved. The total of those planned tax cuts are well above the spending cuts that have been approved by other House Committees, so as things stands it looks improbable that the eventual package will deliver any meaningful reduction of the elevated US fiscal deficit.
The above rates moves come ahead of a slew of US data today, including the April PPI, where after Tuesday’s April CPI miss, we’ll be monitoring the categories that feed through into core PCE, while also watching for any evidence of tariff pass through into producer prices. Meanwhile, the April retail sales print will be watched for possible signs of pull-forward demand in response to tariffs, with April industrial production also due. Recall that while US sentiment surveys have seen a sharp weakening over the past few months, hard data have so far held up quite well.
The other notable market story yesterday were moves in the US dollar. The dollar index fell by as much as -0.72% intra-day following reporting that US and South Korea officials had discussed exchange rate policies at a meeting in early May. However, it recovered back to little changed (+0.04%) by the close following a Bloomberg report that US officials were not seeking currency pledges as part of ongoing trade negotiations. Still, there were notable gains against the dollar for the East Asian currencies, including the South Korean won (+0.88%) and Japanese yen (+0.50%). The won and yen are another +0.60% and +0.47% higher this morning. At a minimum, there is a sense that these countries may become more reticent to push back against their currencies appreciating than they have been in the past.
Turning back to Trump’s visit in the Middle East, yesterday the president said that Iran must “permanently and verifiably cease” its pursuit of nuclear weapons if it wanted to strike a deal with the US, while NBC reported that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions. Brent crude was down -0.81% to $66.09/bbl on the back of ameliorating tensions, while gold fell -2.25% to $3,177/oz, leaving the precious metal on course for its biggest weekly decline since November.
Geopolitics will stay in focus today with Russia-Ukraine talks expected in Istanbul. The nature of any talks remains uncertain, with Ukraine’s President Zelensky calling for an in-person meeting with Russia’s Putin, but Moscow last night announcing a delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky, a former Minister of Culture who led Russia’s talks with Ukraine back in 2022. Should the talks deliver little, a key question will be whether the US might join in announcing new sanctions against Russia which have been advocated by European leaders.
In terms of the day ahead, in the US we have the April PPI report, retail sales, industrial production, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Empire manufacturing index, initial jobless claims and more. We’ll also see the UK release its Q1 GDP numbers, with our UK economist expecting growth to have jumped in Q1 before reversing in Q2 (see preview here). Other data releases include March trade balances in Italy and the Eurozone. Central bank speakers include Fed’s Barkin, ECB’s Lane and BoE’s Lombardelli. The European Commission is also set to release their Spring Economic Forecasts.
2b) European opening report
US Futures subdued and Fixed edges higher into a heavy data slate and Powell; Crude slips on Iran deal optimism – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 05:37 AM
- European equities are subdued awaiting US data and Fed Chair Powell; US equity futures also tilt lower (ES -0.6%).
- DXY is subdued and contained whilst havens seen some inflows amid the broader risk tone.
- Fixed income benchmarks trade slightly firmer into US data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
- Crude futures are curtailed by Trump suggesting the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, while metals await data & Powell.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, Speakers include ECBʼs de Guindos; Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoEʼs Dhingra. Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere.
SNAPSHOT
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the US and EU have agreed to intensify trade talk contacts.
- WTO chief warned that US bilateral tariff deals could put trade principles at risk and said global trade was in a crisis despite the recent de-escalation of the US-China tariff war, according to FT.
- US Treasury secretary Bessent says they can accomplish “a lot” over the next 90 days; will have a series of negotiations to prevent escalation with China again.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- Subdued sentiment across Europe after the predominantly lower APAC handover, and following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.
- Newsflow this morning has been light but earnings picked up, whilst current focus remains on geopolitical ongoings with US President Trump in the Middle East, consolatory language from Iran, and a likely no-show from Russia President Putin in Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey.
- Sectors are mostly a defensive bias and in line with the cautious mood across the markets.
- US equity futures are also subdued as participants await the raft of US data including US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, whilst markets also await commentary from Fed Chair Powell. Notable corporate earnings reports due today include: BABA, DE, WMT, AMAT, TTWO.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY subdued and contained within Wednesday’s confines amid a lack of fresh catalysts overnight, n a 100.58-101.05 range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s 100.27-101.14 parameter.
- EUR ekes mild gains and trades on either side of the 1.1200 level after recent fluctuations, and with ECB speakers scheduled later, although data and speakers today are not likely to shift the dial much.
- GBP is slightly firmer following better-than-expected UK GDP data; GBP/USD resides within yesterday’s 1.3250-1.3360 range.
- USD/JPY retreated overnight as the underperformance in Japanese stocks spurred some haven flows into the yen.
- Antipodeans are subdued in-fitting with the broader risk tone; mild support was seen in AUD/USD following the stronger-than-expected employment data from Australia.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1963 vs exp. 7.2217 (Prev. 7.1956).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Another contained start for fixed income with USTs marginally in the green while peers across the pond resided slightly in the red in the early morning.
- USTs at a 109-26 peak with gains of a handful of ticks. While firmer, the benchmark remains markedly shy of peaks from the last three sessions at 110-09+, 110-15 and 110-19+ respectively.
- Bunds find themselves attempting to make a footing above the break-even mark at the top-end of a 129.13 to 129.47 band.
- Gilts gapped higher by 17 ticks, before then slipping to a shortlived 91.02 low given the readacross from EGBs at the time. Currently, at the mid-point of a 91.02-22 band.
- UK sells (via tender) GBP 2.0bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.52x, average yield 3.768% & tail 0.7bps
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are suffering losses of USD 2/bbl, with commentary surrounding Iran applying steady pressure overnight and through the morning so far. US President Trump said the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, and they are in serious peace negotiations, adding that Iran has “sort of” agreed to the terms of a deal. This constructive commentary surrounding the nation pushed benchmarks to fresh session lows, adding to overnight losses. Losses overnight also stemmed from geopolitics, following a report that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons and getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. The aforementioned lows for WTI and Brent are currently USD 60.65 and 63.63/bbl.
- Spot Gold is extending on recent losses with demand subdued as it sits below the USD 3,200/oz mark. The trend seen for most of this week remains intact, with the metal continuing to be hit by higher yields, particularly on the short end.
- Copper Futures are lower by a percent, mostly owing to a downbeat risk sentiment in APAC hours. It currently trades towards session lows of USD 9,467/t, after being modestly pressured around the time of Trump commentary.
- IEA lifts 2025 average oil demand growth forecast by 20k BPD to 740k BPD on upward revision to GDP growth forecast and lower oil prices; sees global oil demand growth dropping to 650k BPD for remainder of 2025, from 990k BPD in Q1. “Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and by extension oil demand,”. IEA sees oil inventories rising by around 720k BPD in 2025 as global supply rises expected to considerably outpace demand growth. IEA hikes 2025 global supply growth forecast to 1.6mln BPD, up by 380k BPD from previous month’s report on higher Saudi production outlook. IEA raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 760k BPD (prev forecast 690k BPD).
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK GDP Estimate MM (Mar) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.5%); YY (Mar) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.4%); 3M/3M (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
- EU GDP Flash Estimate QQ (Q1) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- EU Industrial Production YY (Mar) 3.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.2%, Rev. 1.0%)
- EU Industrial Production MM (Mar) 2.6% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.1%)
- EU GDP Flash Estimate YY (Q1) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Plans for a reset of UK-EU relations hit trouble due to fishing rights and youth mobility as EU member states demanded further concessions from the UK, according to the FT.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said monetary policy is well-positioned and moderately restrictive, while she added businesses are cautious but are not stalling out and Fed policy can respond to whatever in the economy. Daly said patience is the word of the day and that uncertainty is not depressing activity but could affect the economy if it persists.
- US President Trump says they will upgrade the F-35 to an F-55; will do an F-22 super, an upgrade on the F-22.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov says no chance Russian President Putin will take part in Turkey talks, according to Ria.
- “Israeli Chief of Staff: We will use all means to reach the perpetrators of the attack in the West Bank yesterday”, according to Sky News Arabia.
MIDDLE EAST
- Qatar’s PM said Israeli attacks in Gaza this week send a signal that they are not interested in negotiating a ceasefire, while he added that a US humanitarian plan for Gaza is not necessary and the UN should be allowed to deliver aid, according to CNN.
- Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced it will launch operations in the Gaza Strip before the end of the month and stated that Israel has agreed to expand the number of distribution sites to serve the entire population of Gaza.
- US President Trump said Qatar is working with the US on negotiating an Iran deal and he wants to see Iran thrive.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran will not bow to any bullying from US President Trump who he suggested thinks that he can come to the region, chant slogans, and scare them.
- Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.- US President Trump says the US getting close to doing a deal with Iran; in serious negotiations to achieve peace; don’t want to take a second step and threaten Iran. Want to end Iran in an intelligent way, not destructive
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.
- US President Trump says he will go to the Russia-Ukraine talks if appropriate.
OTHER
- China’s Hainan Maritime Safety Administration warned of military training taking place in an area of the South China Sea from May 15th to 16th and prohibited entry, while it noted there were some drills near Vietnam and China’s Hainan.
- Russia sent a fighter jet to “check the situation” as Estonia was attempting to detain a Russian shadow fleet tanker, according to the Estonian Foreign Minister; jet violated NATO territory for “around a minute”.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin eventually dipped under USD 103k amid the ongoing cautious tone across the market.
- US Democrats are pushing for details on interactions between President Trump’s administration and Binance CEO Zhao, via WSJ.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.
- ASX 200 traded indecisively but eventually eked mild gains in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected jobs data from Australia.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed following recent currency strength and as earnings results remained in the spotlight in Japan.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid little in the way of fresh catalysts to spur momentum, while Tencent shares traded indecisively post-earnings and Alibaba results are scheduled for release today.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi hopes the Danish Chamber of Commerce in China and member companies will continue to role as a bridge between China and Denmark and between China and Europe, according to Xinhua.
- PBoC Governor Pan said China welcomes more outstanding Latin American market players to issue Panda bonds in China and share market development opportunities, while he added that China and Latin America should promote financial cooperation in a wider range of fields and a deeper level.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Employment (Apr) 89.0k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 32.2k)
- Australian Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
- Australian Participation Rate (Apr) 67.1% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.8%)
2c Asian report
RTY underperforms on higher yields; Russia’s Putin absent from Kremlin delegation list as peace talks set to begin – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 01:41 AM
- APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.
- US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.
- Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.
- Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, EZ Employment & GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoE’s Dhingra, Supply from US.
- Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere, Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Thyssenkrupp, RWE, Siemens, National Grid, United Utilities & Richemont.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished mixed on what was a relatively rangebound and choppy session amid a lack of fresh major macro themes although gains were seen in the Mag-7 led sectors such as Communications, Tech and Consumer Discretionary, while Healthcare, Materials and Real Estate were at the other end of the spectrum with the latter pressured, as was the small-cap Russell 2000, amid the continued upside in US yields.
- SPX +0.10% at 5,983, NDX +0.57% at 21,319, DJI -0.21% at 42,051, RUT -0.88% at 2,084.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump received a USD 1.2tln economic commitment from Qatar.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer are engaged with China to stop fentanyl.
- WTO chief warned that US bilateral tariff deals could put trade principles at risk and said global trade was in a crisis despite the recent de-escalation of the US-China tariff war, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said monetary policy is well-positioned and moderately restrictive, while she added businesses are cautious but are not stalling out and Fed policy can respond to whatever in the economy. Daly said patience is the word of the day and that uncertainty is not depressing activity but could affect the economy if it persists.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.
- ASX 200 traded indecisively but eventually eked mild gains in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected jobs data from Australia.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed following recent currency strength and as earnings results remained in the spotlight in Japan.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid little in the way of fresh catalysts to spur momentum, while Tencent shares traded indecisively post-earnings and Alibaba results are scheduled for release today.
- US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY marginally retreated after yesterday’s two-way price action whereby the dollar ultimately strengthened on the day as US yields edged higher and with a Bloomberg report noting that the US is not looking to weaken the dollar as part of trade deals. There were reports of further deals from President Trump’s Middle East trip with a USD 1.2tln economic commitment from Qatar, while the latest comments from Fed officials had little impact with participants now awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of data releases including US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, PPI, NY Fed Manufacturing, Philly Fed and Jobless Claims.
- EUR/USD eked mild gains and retested the 1.1200 level after recent fluctuations and with ECB speakers scheduled later.
- GBP/USD was contained beneath the 1.3300 handle with participants awaiting UK GDP data for Q1, while it was also reported that plans for a reset of UK-EU ties hit a snag after EU member states demanded further concessions from the UK on fishing rights and youth mobility.
- USD/JPY retreated as the underperformance in Japanese stocks spurred some haven flows into the yen.
- Antipodeans were rangebound amid the mixed risk appetite with only mild support seen in AUD/USD following the stronger-than-expected employment data from Australia.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1963 vs exp. 7.2217 (Prev. 7.1956).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lingered around the prior day’s trough after retreating throughout Wall St hours amid the higher yield environment as participants dialled back further Fed rate cut bets for 2025.
- Bund futures were stuck near a monthly low beneath the 130.00 level after recent supply and ahead of German wholesale prices.
- 10yr JGB futures declined but were off this week’s lows with mild support seen around the 139.00 level and as Japanese stocks retreated, but with the recovery limited amid a lack of tier-1 data from Japan and after a weaker-than-previous 5yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were pressured following a report that Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons and getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.
- Spot gold extended on recent losses with demand subdued after slumping beneath the USD 3,200/oz level yesterday.
- Copper futures continued on its mid-week pullback amid headwinds from the mostly downbeat risk sentiment in Asia.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually retreated overnight and reverted to beneath the USD 103,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi hopes the Danish Chamber of Commerce in China and member companies will continue to role as a bridge between China and Denmark and between China and Europe, according to Xinhua.
- PBoC Governor Pan said China welcomes more outstanding Latin American market players to issue Panda bonds in China and share market development opportunities, while he added that China and Latin America should promote financial cooperation in a wider range of fields and a deeper level.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Employment (Apr) 89.0k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 32.2k)
- Australian Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
- Australian Participation Rate (Apr) 67.1% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.8%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Qatar’s PM said Israeli attacks in Gaza this week send a signal that they are not interested in negotiating a ceasefire, while he added that a US humanitarian plan for Gaza is not necessary and the UN should be allowed to deliver aid, according to CNN.
- Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced it will launch operations in the Gaza Strip before the end of the month and stated that Israel has agreed to expand the number of distribution sites to serve the entire population of Gaza.
- US President Trump said Qatar is working with the US on negotiating an Iran deal and he wants to see Iran thrive.
- US issued new Iran-related sanctions which target individuals in China and Iran.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran will not bow to any bullying from US President Trump who he suggested thinks that he can come to the region, chant slogans, and scare them.
- Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is waiting to see who will represent Russia at proposed talks in Turkey and then will decide on Ukraine’s next steps.
OTHER
- China’s Hainan Maritime Safety Administration warned of military training taking place in an area of the South China Sea from May 15th to 16th and prohibited entry, while it noted there were some drills near Vietnam and China’s Hainan.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Plans for a reset of UK-EU relations hit trouble due to fishing rights and youth mobility as EU member states demanded further concessions from the UK, according to the FT.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
Kevin is perfectly correct:
30 is actually 50
KEVIN W..
First of all, we don’t actually have a “trade deal” with China. What we have is a 90 day “cooling off period” during which we could potentially negotiate a “trade deal” with China.
Major news outlets are reporting that most Chinese exports to the United States will be hit with a 30 percent tariff rate during the “cooling off period”, but that is not accurate.
On the War Room, Jason Miller explained what is actually happening. According to Miller, “we have 50 percent tariffs on China, they have 10 percent on us”.
He got to that figure by adding the 10 percent baseline tariff rate plus the 20 percent fentanyl tariff rate plus the 20 percent tariff rate from Trump’s first term.
And this is actually confirmed on the official White House website. It states that the only tariffs that are being removed by the United States are the “additional tariffs” that were imposed on April 8th and April 9th…
https://goldseek.com/article/inflation-stays-low-expected-superheated-pressure-will-blow-steam-soon
CHINA/USA
“Rogue” Devices Found Hidden In Chinese Solar Panels Could “Destroy The Grid”
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Undisclosed communication devices reportedly discovered in Chinese-manufactured solar panels and related equipment have sparked concerns among U.S. officials about the vulnerability of the nation’s power grid, according to a Reuters report.
These “rogue” devices, found over the past nine months, could potentially destabilize energy infrastructure and trigger widespread blackouts, sources familiar with the matter told the outlet.
The undocumented devices, including cellular radios, were identified in solar power inverters, batteries, electric vehicle chargers, and heat pumps produced by several Chinese suppliers.
U.S. experts uncovered the components during security inspections of renewable energy equipment, prompting a reevaluation of the risks posed by these products.
Inverters, critical for connecting solar panels and wind turbines to the power grid, are predominantly manufactured in China, amplifying concerns about their security.
“We know that China believes there is value in placing at least some elements of our core infrastructure at risk of destruction or disruption,” said Mike Rogers, former director of the U.S. National Security Agency.
“I think that the Chinese are, in part, hoping that the widespread use of inverters limits the options that the West has to deal with the security issue,” Roger’s further urged.
Experts warn that these rogue devices could bypass firewalls, allowing remote manipulation of inverter settings or even complete shutdowns.
Such actions could disrupt power grids, damage energy infrastructure, and cause blackouts.
“That effectively means there is a built-in way to physically destroy the grid,” another source told Reuters.
The discovery adds to long-standing warnings from energy and security experts about the risks of relying on Chinese-made green energy products.
Concerns over espionage and sabotage have grown as the U.S. continues to integrate these technologies into its energy systems.
In December 2023, Republican officials, including former Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher and then-Senator Marco Rubio, urged Duke Energy to discontinue using Chinese-manufactured CATL batteries at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, citing surveillance risks.
“Directly following our inquiry, Duke disconnected the Chinese-manufactured systems from the grid,” Gallagher and Rubio stated in a February 2024 press release.
“Others that continue to work with CATL, and other companies under the control of the CCP, should take note,” they added.
The Department of Energy (DOE) acknowledged the issue, with a spokesperson telling Reuters that the department continuously assesses risks associated with new technologies.
“While this functionality may not have malicious intent, it is critical for those procuring to have a full understanding of the capabilities of the products received,” the spokesperson said.
The DOE is working to strengthen domestic supply chains and improve transparency through initiatives like the “Software Bill of Materials,” which inventories all components in software applications.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington rejected the allegations, stating, “We oppose the generalisation [sic] of the concept of national security, distorting and smearing China’s infrastructure achievements.”
* * *
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
This is what happens when you abandon nuclear power!
(zerohedge)
Germany Wind Power Firms Face Millions In Losses As Wind Speed Drops To 50-Year L
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 07:20 AM
By ReMix News
In many ways, Germany’s wind power revolution has been a success, with wind power serving as the country’s largest source of electricity. However, the current wind lull over the last three months has led to an extreme dip in energy production, which is costing firms millions in losses.
The wind speed average has dropped below less than 5.5 meters per second in the first quarter of 2025, according to German Meteorological Service (DWD). The last time the country saw such low speeds was in 1972 and 1973, and before that, in 1963.
Wind energy producers have been hit hard. For example, PNE, a wind farm operator in Coxhaven, showed revenue dropped to €27.9 million from €31.4 million the previous year, but perhaps more importantly, it went from an operating profit of €1.1 million in the first quarter to a loss of €7.1 million, according to Welt.
The company indicated that there was 31 percent less electricity generated nationwide in the first quarter of the year than in the same period last year, according to data from the German Energy and Water Industry Association (BDEW).
However, it should be noted that April 2024 and 2022 saw much higher wind speeds than previous years, so comparing 2024 to 2025 makes this drop look even more extreme. Experts say there is no evidence of climate change being at work, noting that previous decades have had similar lulls in wind speed.
Germany experienced so-called “dark lulls” over the winter, featuring little sunlight and low wind speed, which led to extremely high prices. Germany imported energy from neighboring countries and turned to conventional power plants in response.
Former Economic Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens had already planned to provide incentives to build 40 large gas-fired plants by 2030 to deal with fluctuations in wind and solar energy. These gas plants had a number of climate protections allegedly built in, such as being able to be switched to hydrogen at some point in the future.
The grid is also at risk due to renewable energy in some instances, especially during holidays when there is less power demand. Solar power cannot be regulated by grid operators, which means that when there is too much electricity and not enough sources that need it, the grid is pushed to its limit. The previous German government, at the urging of grid operators, implemented the PV Peak Act to deal with surplus solar power production.
The average share of solar power energy in 2023 was 31.5 percent, with coal-fired plants in second, at 22.5 percent.
Renewables make up an increasingly large share of Germany’s energy profile, which supporters say reduces reliance on foreign countries such as Russia while also reducing carbon emissions. Critics, on the other hand, say wind power has harmed energy security and also presents a number of environmental risks to wildlife and even forests.
However, it is not just countries like Germany turning to renewables. Conservative governments, including Hungary’s, are also increasingly shifting to wind and especially solar, where it is one of Europe’s leaders.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF conducts multi-location strikes in Gaza Strip – report
The IDF said it is operating at several sites in Gaza, mainly around the European Hospital, where the IDF attempted to assassinate Hamas head Mohammed Sinwar.
By AVI ASHKENAZI , JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 15, 2025 15:10Updated: MAY 15, 2025 18:17
The IAF conducted airstrikes across the Gaza Strip throughout the day, including in Jabalya and eastern Khan Yunis, as well as other locations, Army Radio reported on Thursday afternoon.
Gazan reports cited by Army Radio claimed that over 115 Gazans had been killed since Thursday morning.
In the Al Tuba Mosque in Jabalya, 15 people were reportedly killed. Concurrently, the IDF carried out heavy artillery shelling and air strikes in the town of Khuza’a, east of Khan Yunis. Gazan sources reported numerous casualties in a strike on a residential building on Al-Fahm Street in eastern Khan Yunis.
Also east of Khan Yunis, in the town of Bani Suhaila, the military reportedly struck several residential buildings, also in the area of Deir al-Balah, and on Al-Wahda Street in central Gaza City.
A residential building in Jabalya al-Balad in the northern Strip was also struck, along with reported attacks in the Al-Salateen neighborhood in Beit Lahia and the Jabalya area.
According to eyewitnesses, the Nasser Medical Center has been filled with the wounded and the deceased, while the medical system in the Strip is struggling with a severe shortage of medical supplies.
Those wounded from the various attacks were also evacuated to the Indonesian Hospital and the Al-Ma’mouni Hospital in Gaza City, with some of the casualties described as being in moderate to serious condition.
The IDF said it is operating at several sites in Gaza. The main site is around the European Hospital, the area where the IDF attempted to assassinate Hamas head Mohammed Sinwar, who was in a tunnel at the time.
The Israeli air force is reportedly preventing Hamas terrorists from approaching the tunnel in an effort to rescue survivors.
Troops in northern Gaza replaced with reservists
The IDF earlier announced that the 16th Brigade in northern Gaza was being replaced with reservist forces after it had completed its operations there.
In cooperation with Yahalom troops, the soldiers destroyed hundreds of meters of underground bunkers containing weapons and military equipment. In total, the troops destroyed over 600 sites used by Hamas terrorists.
Over the last two days, the Israeli air force struck over 130 targets throughout Gaza, including surface-to-surface rocket launchers, terrorist cells, military structures, and operational apartments.
In southern Gaza, the IDF killed several terrorists and dismantled sites from which Hamas terrorists operated, and destroyed weapons.
In northern Gaza, troops dismantled a booby-trapped structure and a compound used by terrorists to ambush IDF troops operating in the area.
Last week, the IDF killed Hamas terrorist Jasser Hussain Ali Shamieh in Gaza City, the military announced. He was responsible for Hamas fundraising and previously served as a battalion commander in Hamas’s Gaza Brigade.
The funds he raised were used for the reinforcement of the terror group’s military wing and for salary payment.
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
WEST BANK
Shooting terror attack in West Bank leaves two seriously wounded, including pregnant woman
Following the attack, IDF soldiers launched a manhunt for the suspect and are currently conducting searches in the area.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 14, 2025 22:09Updated: MAY 15, 2025 00:53
A man and a pregnant woman were seriously wounded in a terror shooting attack in the West Bank near Brukhin on Wednesday evening, the IDF confirmed. Following the attack, IDF soldiers launched a manhunt for the suspect and are currently conducting searches in the area.
Medical teams are reportedly working to save the life of the unborn baby.
The terrorists opened fire initially at three cars, and one of them was hit, injuring the two civilians inside, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
At 22:01, Magen David Adom (MDA) received a report at its 101 emergency dispatch center about a woman wounded by gunfire on Route 446.
Following a shooting attack targeting a vehicle on Route 446, MDA medics and paramedics began providing medical treatment and referring the 30-year-old woman in critical condition, with gunshot wounds, and the 40-year-old man in serious condition, fully conscious, with gunshot wounds, to the Rabin Medical Center in Petah Tikva, MDA announced.
Reactions to the terrorist attack
Following the terror attack, Israeli politician Naftali Bennett said on X/Twitter: “I pray with all my heart for them. Let there be no doubt: if there is no security in Samaria, there will be no security in Tel Aviv either. The enemy wants to murder us everywhere. We must eliminate it.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to the attack on Thursday morning, saying he was deeply shocked.”This despicable event reflects exactly the difference between us and the vile terrorists whose goal in life is to kill us. I trust that the security forces, even in this case, will quickly reach the murderers and bring them to justice, along with everyone who helped them.”
Defense officials see military crackdown on West Bank terror as limited – analysis
The latest attack at Peduel shows that even in areas where the IDF has been most aggressive in the West Bank, there will always be gaps that security forces cannot cover.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBMAY 15, 2025 17:54Updated: MAY 15, 2025 18:24
The terror attack on Wednesday near Peduel in the lower part of the northern West Bank Samaria region highlighted a point which top IDF and Shin Bet former and current officials have made throughout the war: crackdowns can reduce terror temporarily, but to sustain a calmer safer time period, there also need to be positive incentives.
What the positive incentives should be is then an extensive debate.
Some defense officials favor merely returning all or most of the 210,000 Palestinian workers from the West Bank from before the war.
Others support this, but also believe Israel needs to be making larger strategic offers to the Palestinian Authority regarding the future of building in new uninhabited areas of the West Bank or providing it greater aspects of autonomy in various political or economic areas.
None of these ideas are under consideration by the current government.
Since the war started, the number of Palestinian workers approved to cross into Israeli parts of the West Bank or the Green Line is down to around 10,000 or less.
Some officials believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would support increasing the number of Palestinian workers on his own, but fear that doing so would lead Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich to topple his coalition.
Arguments against returning Palestinian workers
The arguments against returning the workers are that after October 7, virtually all Palestinians are potential suspected terrorists or spies for future invasions.
This is based on the fallacy that it was the 18,000 Palestinian Gaza workers who mapped out Israel’s military bases and vulnerabilities on the Gaza border, which enabled Hamas to invade Israel so effectively.
Except that the IDF and Shin Bet probes disclosed in late February and early March made it clear that this was not true.
Rather, infuriatingly, Hamas managed to piece together all of the precise locations of Israeli military bases and classified portions within those bases based on social media.
Soldiers working at those bases took photos of themselves next to classified installations and posted them for years without anyone cracking down on that practice until October 7.
The IDF and Shin Bet found all the information Hamas needed to carry out its precise invasion on wide-open social media.
What’s more, all of the evidence from both before and after October 7 is that the number of Palestinian workers who get to enter Israeli parts of the West Bank or Green Line Israel, and who then turn to terror, is minuscule.
Most Palestinian terrorists who perpetrate terror attacks either do so in West Bank areas where Jews and Palestinians are mixed or simply break through the West Bank barrier, which remains vulnerable and unpoliced in a large number of areas.
The other fallacy is that allowing West Bank Palestinian workers to return would be a victory for Hamas.
The PA controls the West Bank, not Hamas.
Returning workers would not empower Hamas, but the PA
Returning the workers would not empower Hamas, but the PA, which, while far from being a trusted ally of Israel, is nowhere near as dangerous or destabilizing as Hamas.
Or it might not even empower it, but at least restore some of its ability to control the terror elements of its population.
Arguments that returning the workers would show that Israel learned nothing from October 7 also belies that the Jewish state has already changed the face of the region: Most of Gaza has been destroyed, over 20,000 Hamas terrorists have been killed and reportedly around another 30,000 Palestinian civilians killed, Hezbollah has been decapitated including losing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and most of its heavy weaponry and with the IDF holding five outposts in Lebanese territory, the Syrian military’s elements which could threaten Israel have been bombed and Israel now controls a huge new buffer zone in Syria, Iran has been defanged of many elements of its ability to threaten Israel, and the IDF is finally building a more serious fence on the border with Jordan to block Tehran from smuggling weapons to Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank.
After all of these changes, no one in the Middle East is going to think Israel has gone soft because it shows mild openness to positive incentives on one of the seven fronts.
According to defense sources, there is essentially no demonstrable or data-based downside to increasing Palestinian workers, and its only impact would be to reduce the motivation of normative people to radicalize and join terror groups.
None of this means that Israel can sit on its laurels.
It will need heavily increased volumes of troops on the borders and a proactive and preemptive strike strategy against border threats for years if not decades.
And virtually all of the defense officials who favor increasing Palestinian workers are on board with the more aggressive Israeli policy in the West Bank, including more air strikes, tanks, and D-9 bulldozers, which have made parts of Jenin and Tulkarem look more like blown-up Gaza.
These strategies have reduced terror in the northern West Bank over the recent period.
But some of the terrorists merely shifted to the Hebron area, which had been one of the quieter areas for much of this war.
There will always be holes that security forces cannot cover
Also, the latest attack at Peduel shows that even in areas where the IDF has cracked down the hardest and been more aggressive in the West Bank than ever before, there will always be a hole that security forces cannot cover.
Making a bigger diplomatic move in the West Bank is more complex and controversial, but there are plenty of ways that defense sources believe Israel could give temporary economic, land, and political incentives in certain quiet areas, which could be withdrawn if those areas stopped being quiet.
For 19 months, the government has ignored the virtually unanimous security forces recommendation of returning more West Bank Palestinian workers and has been unwilling to even entertain any positive diplomatic incentives.
Over those 19 months, the IDF has used force, force, and more force as its strategy, and has sometimes achieved impressive shifts because of that.
But there are limits to how long military crackdowns can maintain strategic achievements and quiet.
When will the government’s answer be not just to kill the latest terrorist who killed another Israeli, but to try out some of the defense establishment’s positive incentive ideas, while maintaining its harsher than ever military pressure?
END
IRAN/USA
why are they wasting the USA’s time?
US talks progressing, though nuclear program ‘non-negotiable’ Iran’s FM says
Senior US administration officials told Reuters that an agreement was reached to move forward with talks to continue working through technical elements.
By AMICHAI STEIN, REUTERSMAY 11, 2025 16:34Updated: MAY 11, 2025 21:4
Fresh talks between Iranian and US negotiators to resolve disputes over Tehran’s nuclear program ended in Oman on Sunday with further negotiations planned, officials said, as Tehran insisted in public on continuing uranium enrichment.
This round of talks lasted between three and four hours and included US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, sources told The Jerusalem Post. Witkoff held direct and indirect discussions with Iran, a senior US administration official noted.
Though Tehran and Washington both have said they prefer diplomacy to resolve the decades-long nuclear dispute, they remain deeply divided on several redlines that negotiators will have to circumvent to reach a new nuclear deal and avert future military action.
Following the talks, Araghchi told Iranian state media that talks with the US were more “serious” compared to previous rounds, and that both sides have “a better understanding of each other’s views.”
Araghchi also said that the “talks are moving forward.” However, the foreign minister noted that Tehran’s uranium enrichment program is “non-negotiable.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the talks were “difficult but useful.”
.xcom/IRIMFA_SPOX/status/1921559865396175094?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1921559865396175094%7Ctwgr%5Ea8f0db43f91
“The fourth round of indirect Iran-US negotiations is concluded; difficult but useful talks to better understand each other’s positions and to find reasonable & realistic ways to address the differences. Next round will be coordinated and announced by Oman,” Esmaeil Baqaei said.
Oman’s foreign minister said the fourth round of Iran-US nuclear talks included “useful and original ideas” reflecting a shared wish to reach an “honorable” agreement.
The foreign minister said the fifth round of Iran-US nuclear talks will take place once both parties have consulted their leadership.
Senior US administration officials told Reuters that an agreement was reached to move forward with talks to continue working through technical elements.
Witkoff sets out red line for the US in nuclear talks
On Thursday, Witkoff told Breitbart News that Washington’s red line is: “No enrichment. That means dismantlement, no weaponization,” requiring the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.
The fourth round of talks took place ahead of Trump’s Middle East visit. Trump, who has threatened military action against Iran if diplomacy fails, has restored a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since returning to the White House in January.
Tehran is willing to negotiate some curbs on its nuclear work in return for the lifting of sanctions, according to Iranian officials, but ending its enrichment program or surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile are among “Iran’s red lines that could not be compromised” in the talks.
A senior Iranian official close to the negotiating team said that US demands for “zero enrichment and dismantling Iran’s nuclear sites would not help in progressing the negotiations.”
“What the US says publicly differs from what is said in negotiations,” the official said, on condition of anonymity.
Moreover, Iran has flatly ruled out negotiating its ballistic missile program, and the clerical establishment demands watertight guarantees that Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact.
Trump exited Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers in 2018 during his first term and reimposed tough sanctions that have devastated Iran’s economy.
Iran, which has long said its nuclear program is peaceful, has breached the 2015 pact’s nuclear curbs since 2019, including “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons-grade, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.
END
US presents Iran with written nuclear deal proposal – report
By WALLA!MAY 15, 2025 14:4
The Trump administration reportedly gave Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal during the fourth round of negotiations in Oman on Sunday, a US official and two other sources with direct knowledge told Walla.
This is a developing story.
END
IRAN/IRAQ
Iran wants to strengthen relations with Iraq
(zerohedge)
Iran’s secretive head of Quds Force travels to Iraq – analysis
Iraq is one of Iran’s last allies in the region, and Iran wants to show its clout in Iraq and pressure Baghdad.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANMAY 15, 2025 11:58
The Iranian head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, travelled to Iraq this week. He is arriving in Baghdad ahead of an Arab summit. Iraq is one of Iran’s last allies in the region, and Iran wants to show its clout in Iraq and pressure Baghdad.
The arrival of Qaani coincides with Iranian pressure on Iraq to crack down on dissident groups that oppose the Iranian regime. It also comes as Iraq’s Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani met with key Iranian-linked leaders in Iran, including Hadi al-Amiri and Qais Khazali.
Qaani likely recalls that his predecessor, Qasem Soleimani, was killed by a drone strike ordered by US President Donald Trump in January 2020. Trump is still in the region while Qaani is in Baghdad. The National in the UAE noted that the “rare publicly announced visit comes days before the Arab Summit in Baghdad.”
The report in The National said that “the visit was announced by Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim Al Araji, who met Mr Qaani in Baghdad. He said they discussed ‘joint efforts to secure the borders and the implementation of the security agreement between the two countries.’”
Iran is pressuring Iraq to crack down on Kurdish groups. “In March 2023, Tehran and Baghdad signed a security agreement after launching air strikes against bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. They have since agreed to disarm them and remove them from border areas,” the report said.
According to the report, Araji and Qaani discussed the Iran deal talks that the US and Iran are engaged in. “We emphasised the importance of the success of negotiations between Washington and Tehran and the commitment of all parties to dialogue and calm to achieve stability in the region,” Araji said.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani affirmed on Thursday that his government is proceeding with establishing the state’s monopoly on arms and rejecting the presence of any weapons outside its official institutions, Shafaq News reported in Iraq. “He emphasized that this approach represents one of the fundamental pillars of strengthening the state’s prestige and stability.”
In an interview with Sky News Arabia, Al-Sudani said, “The duality of arms does not align with the concept of the state…We have confronted terrorism for two decades, and today we are working to strengthen our security institutions through a legal, political, and security.”
Iraq has a large number of Iranian-backed militias called the Population Mobilization Units. However, these groups include militias who conduct attacks targeting Israel and also targeting US forces. Iraq has tried to rein them in. It’s complex because they are both official state paramilitaries, like a national guard, and also operate as independent militias. Some of them, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are sanctioned by the US.
An informed source told Shafaq News that Qaani is focused on files in Iraq, “most notably his country’s desire for Arab support to lift the siege on it, and to include its demands in the official agenda of the Arab Summit, which will be held in a few days.” The source told Shafaq News Agency, “One of the most important issues that Qaani discussed with National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji was the joint border security issue between the two countries, specifically the mechanism for implementing the provisions of the security agreement concluded between Baghdad and Tehran in 2023.”
The source added, “Qaani will discuss the Iranian-American negotiations with Baghdad and will also hold meetings with leaders of the [pro-Iran Shi’ite] Coordination Framework, possibly one-on-one, to brief them on all the details and information regarding the course of the negotiations between his country and the United States, in addition to other information regarding these agreements and their impact on the security and stability of the region.”
Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr, a cleric and political leader, rejected what he calls the “Abrahamic Religions project.” This is apparently a reference to the coexistence concepts advocated in the Gulf in the context of the Abraham Accords.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s prime minister met with Amiri, the powerful leader of the Badr militias, and Khazali, the head of Asaib Ahl al-Haq. ‘The meeting reviewed Iraq’s readiness to host the Arab Summit and its parallel summits, emphasizing the importance of holding them in Baghdad and the significance this represents in terms of Iraq regaining its pivotal role at the Arab and regional levels,”
This summit represents an important step towards strengthening Iraq’s relations
Iraq’s Prime Minister’s Office said, “During the meeting, the most important developments and preparations for the Arab Summit in Baghdad were reviewed. This summit represents an important step towards strengthening Iraq’s relations and coordinating positions on current issues and challenges, particularly in light of Iraq’s growing pivotal role in its Arab and regional environment.”
Iraq appears to be ignoring Trump’s visit to the region. Trump is supposed to go to the UAE and then may go to Turkey. Iraq, where US forces are based and which was a center of US policy during the 1990s and 2000s, is now an afterthought, apparently.
The pro-Iran axis in Iraq has opposed Syria’s president attending the Arab summit in Baghdad. Damascus will apparently send its foreign minister. According to Arab News on Thursday, Trump will address US troops at the Al Udeid Air Base on May 15 in Qatar before heading to the UAE.
END
i doubt very much that Tehran would forego enriched uranium for the deal. they cannot be trusted!
(JerusalemPost)
Iranian official says Tehran would forego highly enriched uranium for deal, NBC reports
Iran is ready to sign a nuclear agreement with the US today if the US lifts all economic sanctions according to top Iranian advisor, Ali Shamkhani.
By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 15, 2025 02:11Updated: MAY 15, 2025 08:2
Iran is willing to agree to a deal with the US in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions, an Iranian official told NBC News in an interview on Wednesday.
Ali Shamkhani, a political adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, NBC reported.
When asked if Iran would be willing to sign a deal with the US today if their conditions were to be met, Shamkhani responded in the affirmative.
“His comments appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran’s expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader’s inner circle,” according to NBC.
Aside from being a top political advisor to the Ayatollah, Ali Shamkhani also advises on Iran’s military and nuclear programs, NBC reported.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make six nuclear bombs.
Iran is concerned Israel will try to block their progress with US
Shamkhani went on to express concern to NBC about Benjamin Netanyahu attempting to get in the way of any formal agreement between the US and Iran and stated, “If the Americans remove the Bibi effect, they can easily sign the deal.”
These statements came after the fourth round of talks between the US and Iran in Oman in an attempt to create a new nuclear agreement between the two nations.
end
USA/IRAN
“In Very Serious Negotiations”: Crude Prices Tumble After Trump Says US Close To Nuclear Deal With Iran
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Brent crude prices fell on Thursday as geopolitical risk premiums eased following President Trump’s comments during his Gulf tour, where he signaled that the U.S. is nearing a nuclear deal with Iran. Unlike earlier headlines on AI, defense, and aviation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Trump’s comments suggested a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
“We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump told reporters in a press pool that AFP News first reported.
Speaking in Doha, Qatar, during his Middle East trip, the president said, “We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this… there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second way.”
An Iranian source told Reuters that negotiations with Trump administration officials still needed to bridge some gaps before a final deal could be reached.
Trump’s comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions.
x.com/zerohedge/status/1922796096553714104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1922796096553714104%7Ctwgr%5E24
NBC News pointed out that Shamkhani’s comments “appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran’s expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader’s inner circle.”
Trump has offered “an olive branch” to Tehran after a multi-month maximum-pressure campaign, including economic sanctions and deploying long-range stealth bombers to America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” – located in the Indian Ocean – ready to be deployed at a moment’s notice.
However, last week, ahead of Trump’s Gulf tour, we spotted at least one of these stealth bombers returning to the U.S. We suggested this may have been an act of goodwill ahead of talks by the U.S. or possibly just a routine flight.
On Thursday, Brent crude futures fell 3% to $60 a barrel on expectations that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal would ease sanctions and increase crude oil on international markets.
“The overnight development of a possible nuclear deal is the sole reason for the morning’s weakness. If an agreement is reached, Iran agrees to halt enriching weapon grade uranium and the deal is effectively enforced, which is hard to believe, then the Persian Gulf country’s crude oil exports can rise by as much as 1 [million barrels per day],” PVM analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC in an emailed statement.
“It sounds price negative, but its impact will possibly be mitigated by OPEC+ rolling back on its plan to release barrels back to the market faster than originally planned,” he added.
Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky commented on the development:
Staying with geopolitics there are some rather positive stories emanating out of Iran. “Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader told NBC News on Wednesday.” Unclear if the U.S. will agree to the terms but they seem fairly broad: “He said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium which can be weaponized, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran.” (NBC news) If confirmed I think oil could eventually end up heading back to the recent lows and I would continue to express any cyclical concerns in this space.
Here’s the latest commentary from UBS traders:
Oil Equity Resilience Amid Oil Price Drop Oil prices are down, mainly because of a potential deal with Iran. That could mean up to 500kb/d increased supply coming to market very quickly. Oil equities, however, are already underweight for generalists and specialists have already de-grossed, following the OPEC+ surprises so far this year – hence oil equities are proving to be relatively resilient even though the oil price is down.
If Trump secures a nuclear deal with Tehran, it would cap off a week of landmark agreements with Gulf nations—collectively worth trillions—and add to an already bullish news cycle for the president. Also, this would mean continued easing of geopolitical risk premiums in the region, in other words, lower energy prices for Trump to pursue his ‘America First’ agenda.
END
IRAN/USA
POSITIVE VIBES
White House Has Presented Iran With Written Nuke Deal Proposal In Huge First
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 09:19 AM
Update(10:30ET): With President Trump and his envoy having arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the last leg of the president’s Gulf tour, new details of behind the scenes US-Iran negotiations have come to light on Thursday.
In a huge first, the Trump White House has sent Iran a written proposal toward forging a new nuclear deal. White House envoy Steve Witkoff has led several rounds of talks, and Axios has revealed that the communication was issued to Tehran last Sunday.
“Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took the proposal back to Tehran for consultations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other top officials,” writes Axios.
It was the Iranian side which initiated the swap of written proposals first, as the talks which have been on since April went from ‘indirect’ to more ‘direct’:
- During the third round of talks in late April, Araghchi gave Witkoff an updated document with Iranian ideas for a nuclear deal. This time, Witkoff took the document.
- A U.S. team of experts studied it and sent the Iranians a list of questions and requests for clarification. The Iranians replied and added questions of their own, two sources said.
- Meanwhile, Witkoff and his team prepared a U.S. proposal laying out the Trump administration’s parameters for an Iranian civilian nuclear program and requirements for monitoring and verification, the sources said.
It appears that thus far both sides have received the other’s written proposals positively, and that’s what was driving President Trump’s “olive branch” comments on Tuesday. He had stressed while speaking in Saudi Arabia that “this is not an offer that will last forever. The time is right now for them to choose.”
President Trump followed up on Thursday by saying from Qatar, “We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” according to AFP.
He said, “We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this… there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second.”
Trump’s comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions.
NBC News pointed out that Shamkhani’s comments “appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran’s expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader’s inner circle.”
And the fact that written proposals have already been exchanged is yet further confirmation of this positive trend towards peace. Trump has emphasized that Iran can never have a nuclear bomb, but Tehran itself has long said it’s not pursuing a nuke, and that its program is only for peaceful domestic energy purposes.
END
SYRIA/USA
US Treasury ‘Surprised, Confused’ By Trump’s Sudden Lifting Of Syria Sanction
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 01:10 PM
Much of the world was caught off guard when amid an avalanche of multiple US-Gulf deals worth hundreds of billions of dollars each being signed Wednesday, President Trump not only announced that he is lifting all sanctions on Syria, but even met in-person with US-designated terrorist and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (Jolani) in the Saudi capital.
Apparently even the State Department and US Treasury departments were caught off guard. Trump’s move to lift sanctions on Syria “took many by surprise,” including his own officials at State and Treasury, according to Reuters.
“In Washington, senior officials at the State Department and Treasury Department scrambled to understand how to cancel the sanctions, many of which have been in place for decades … The White House had issued no memorandum or directive to State or Treasury sanctions officials to prepare for the unwinding and didn’t alert them that the president’s announcement was imminent,” several senior US officials anonymously told publication.
“Officials were confused about exactly how the administration would unwind the layers of sanctions, which ones were being eased and when the White House wanted to begin the process,” they added while emphasizing that top officials were “caught off guard.”
“Everyone is trying to figure out how to implement it,” Reuters cited the officials as saying. Legally and procedurally, the removal of the sanctions will be a process which could take weeks or even months.
Meanwhile there are reports saying the Syrian Pound (SYP) jumped 30% quickly upon Trump’s announcement. The local currency has experienced runaway inflation, and people have to lug huge bricks of cash around to purchase simple items like eggs or medicines.
Syrians have further endured rolling blackouts and lack of resources, or even fuel, for years amid the US-sanctions regimen which was geared toward regime change. But now…
The streets of Syria were a carnival of car horns, fireworks and flags after President Donald Trump made the surprise announcement that the United States would lift sanctions that have throttled the country’s economy for more than 45 years.
Trump stunned even close observers on Tuesday by saying he wants to normalize relations after Syria’s longtime president, Bashar al Assad, was toppled in December. Trump met Wednesday with Assad’s successor, interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former leader of an al-Qaeda offshoot group, in Saudi Arabia after urging him late Tuesday to “show us something special.”
Trump said he wanted to give Syrians a ‘fresh start’ – and indeed this could be the start of an economic turnaround after years of brutal proxy war.
With Assad having been overthrown, the Saudis and Qataris are also stepping in to cover national debt and prop up public sector salaries.
Ultimately, Washington and the Gulf monarchies got their desired regime change in Syria. It was never about “democracy” or the Syrian people at all. The brutality of the sanctions, which compounded the common mysery, proves that – as some US officials are now openly admitting.
But this sick policy of the Washington blob is nothing really new…
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
amazing Kremlin praises Trump on the impossible: peace with Ukraine possible!
Trump Has ‘Made The Impossible Possible’: Kremlin Praises Istanbul 2.0 Talks
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 09:20 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy and close aide, Kirill Dmitriev, has praised US President Donald Trump for putting together Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, the first such direct dialogue between the warring countries since early 2022.
Trump and his team have “made the impossible possible” by bringing Moscow and Kiev to the table. Dmitriev further wrote on X that the Istanbul meeting is happening “against all odds/fierce resistance” and that if “not derailed last-minute, this could be a historic step to peace.”
Dmitriev also specifically named Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio – the latter two who are present in Istanbul – as major contributors to the mediation effort. The Kremlin had spent the opening years of the conflict blasting the Biden administration for constantly stoking the war and thwarting dialogue, taking Washington-Moscow relations to new historic lows.
As we noted earlier, Ukraine’s President Zelensky is actually in Istanbul, where he’s set to meet with President Erdogan, and has boasted that “I am here” and that Putin is not. Zelensky has even called the Russian delegation, largely composed of junior officials, “phony”.
President Trump meanwhile, while attending meetings in Qatar, was asked by a reporter why the American leader is not himself present in Turkey for the talks:
“Why would he go if I’m not going?”
“I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t.”
“But we have people there. Marco’s doing a fantastic job, Marco’s there…”
It remains that Putin has little reason or incentive to go, with war analysts widely recognizing that he remains in the driver’s seat militarily, and with Ukrainian forces against the ropes.
Zelensky has until now offered no major concessions, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow. Thus there are unlikely to be any major breakthroughs in Istanbul, but the fact that the two sides are even at the table is a big accomplishment.
Below is an important rundown of what’s expected in Istanbul and what’s at stake for both sides, excerpted from fresh Responsible Statecraft analysis, Istanbul 2.0: know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em:
* * *
What has changed since then?
Ukraine will enter the Istanbul talks in a weaker position that it held in 2022.
Western support for Ukraine financially and economically is not as sound as it was then. No big ticket economic aid and assistance has been made available since the G7 agreement of a $50 billion package of loans, in June 2024. While European states scratched together new economic aid to Ukraine in April, this cannot make up for the reduction in US support.
In territorial terms, Russia withdrew from Kyiv as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost ground in Kharkiv and in Kherson in late 2022. However, Russia has gone on steadily to gain further territory in the Donbas since the end of 2023. So while both sides have scores on the board, Russia now maintains the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change. These two factors in particular were behind President Trump’s February assertion that Ukraine has no cards to play.
What has stayed the same?
NATO membership is still off the table
The verified documents shared by the New York Times last June confirmed that Ukraine’s neutrality and non-membership of NATO was the central issue agreed upon in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil.
There seems no route for Ukraine to resile from that given its currently weakened negotiating position and President Trump’s stated view that NATO membership for Ukraine is not practical. Although Germany’s new foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul recently repeated the line that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible, most have agreed, privately and publicly, that Ukraine’s path to NATO is a fraught if not impossible one.
Right now, just having the talks is a huge breakthrough
The Istanbul talks would not be happening had the Trump administration not pushed for it so hard. We don’t need to rehash the “did they or didn’t they” debate around why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul agreement in April 2022. What is clear, is that Ukraine became entrenched, not only in not negotiating with Russia, but in excluding Russia from all discussions on peace in Ukraine from then onward.
Having agreed in principle for Ukraine to accept neutral status Zelensky was pushing his own ten point peace plan. This included, among other things, Russia withdrawing its troops to the pre-2014 border, i.e. giving up Crimea and the Donbass and creating a Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, by which he meant Ukraine joining NATO. Peace summits were organized in various countries that explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in the Switzerland event on June 15, 2024.
At this event, President Zelensky was dug in deeper on resisting any engagement with Russia until a full withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. “Russia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow without waiting for anything – if they leave our legal territories,” he said.
Even after President Trump was elected, European leaders clung to the line that “only Ukraine can decide what peace means.”’ I see no circumstances in which a Kamala Harris presidency would have cajoled President Zelensky to enter into negotiations. Tomorrow’s talks wouldn’t be happening unless the Trump administration broke a whole load of Ukrainian and European eggshells to get to this point.
The biggest issue now is territory
Even though he was wrongly derided at the time by mainstream media, Steve Witkoff correctly pointed out in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that the territorial issues in Ukraine will be most intractable. Russia’s decision in October 2022 to formally annex the four oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk changed the calculus. However, Russia does not have full territorial control of any of those oblasts, which are cut through the middle by a hotly contested front line.
Resolving the line of control when the war ends is, by some margin, the most problematic challenge. This will be a hugely sensitive topic, and European allies will shoot down any major concessions to Russia, as they did when the idea surfaced that the U.S.might de jure recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea.
The most obvious settlement is a de facto recognition of occupation, a Cyprus-style scenario, that does not stand in the way of Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union. Even that will require detailed agreement on issues around demilitarization of the line of control and enforcing any ceasefire.
Sanctions are probably tricky, but also tractable
As I have said before, there is enormous scope to a plan that allows for the immediate lifting of the bulk of zero-impact measures, phasing out the remainder at points agreed to by both sides. The toughest issue remains the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Belgium. Russia has shown a willingness to concede this funding to support reconstruction in Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.
But there is texture here. Freeing up those funds for reconstruction would immediately remove the source of interest payments that are meeting Ukraine’s obligations on its $50 billion in debt to the G7, agreed to in June 2024. But the more general policy question arises, how much of the freed up funding would be spent in Ukraine itself and how much in Russian-occupied Ukraine, where most of the war damage has occurred? The U.S. must keep the pressure on to ensure the talks stay on track.
A U.S. presence in Istanbul will be vital, to prevent, in particular, Ukraine from bailing on the talks. That’s why sending Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg makes sense. The former is trusted by the Russian side while the latter has built relationships in Ukraine. Their presence serves to keep the process moving forward until a deal can be pushed over the line and the fighting can stop.
Bear in mind that the 2022 talks ran for a month and a half and the circumstances have materially changed as I have indicated above. While there has been speculation that President Trump might drop into Istanbul, I am not sure that this is necessary if President Putin doesn’t himself attend. Knowing the Russians, I assess that Putin will want his own “‘meeting moment” with the U.S. President on terms that the Russian side can better choreograph. Indeed, that may be a prize for Russia’s engagement in the process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the U.S.
end
peace talks seems now to be going somewhere!!
(zerohedge)
Zelensky In Istanbul Responds To ‘Insult’ Of Putin Sending Junior Officials To Talks: “I Am Here”
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 08:30 AM
A team of Russian negotiators are in Istanbul on Thursday for the first direct peace talks with Ukraine in more than three years, with Russia’s Foreign Ministry officials saying that the delegation is “ready for serious work”.
President Putin, who as expected is not there in person, tapped his aide and former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky to lead the talks, which many Western analysts have claimed is an ‘insult’ given it’s not someone more senior. Medinsky, it should be remembered, oversaw the failed 2022 peace talks with Kiev in the weeks after the February invasion.
Alongside Medinsky are Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU).
Supporting these main negotiators are group of advisers, including senior officials from the Foreign and Defense Ministries, along with Putin aides. The Kremlin confirmed the identities of its negotiating team by releasing footage of Putin meeting with the negotiation group late Wednesday.
On Wednesday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting to discuss arrangements for talks with Ukraine, due to take place today in Istanbul, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters:https://t.co/hRmXK7daoA
Video: Kremlin. ru pic.twitter.com/1e7DHMlFgv— TASS (@tassagency_en) May 15, 2025
Other top officials were seen present in the send-off meeting in Russia, among them Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Russia’s chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov – which perhaps underscores that Moscow is indeed taking the Istanbul talks very seriously.
But many are calling this a ‘slap in the face’ and insult to Trump who has strongly backed direct talks, and who even urged Putin to be there in person.
Trump has warned that he is “always considering” additional sanctions against Russia if he believes Moscow is blocking or snubbing the peace process.
Putin sending the same people to Istanbul who, back in 2022, demanded Ukraine’s surrender on his behalf is a slap in the face to the Trump administration’s efforts to end this war. The message is clear: fuck off — I have my own objectives, and they haven’t changed since 2022,… https://t.co/8Sj3mprJXe— Sławomir Dębski (@SlawomirDebski) May 14, 2025
As for Ukraine’s President Zelensky, he’s has for the past week been making a big show of how he’s willing to be in Istanbul, and Putin is not. He’s been repeatedly goading Putin to be there, saying that if he’s not – it proves Moscow is not interested in the peace process.
However, this has clearly been a performative effort more geared to show President Trump that Kiev is ‘willing’ – likely in hopes that Washington gives Zelensky stronger backing, and of course a steady supply of weapons and intelligence. To some degree, Zelensky’s bellicose rhetoric may itself have sabotaged talks before they had even begun.
But Zelensky has shown up in Istanbul, somewhat surprisingly. “I am here” – he has emphasized (in once again a bit of messaging primarily aimed at the White House).
Zelensky to Putin from Ankara:
“I am here.” pic.twitter.com/67RjF4QFqb— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 15, 2025
The Wall Street Journal’s take is as follows: “Ignoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to meet for direct high-level talks in Turkey, Russian leader Vladimir Putin dispatched to Istanbul a team of junior officials, making it uncertain that negotiations between the warring nations would occur at all.”
But Russia analyst and author of Forged In War: A Military History of Russia From its Beginnings To Today, Mark Geleotti, has a very different take, featured below [emphasis ZH]:
* * *
It’s easy (and not wholly untrue) to slam Vladimir Medinsky, leading the Russian delegation to Istanbul as a nobody, but perversely, although I think it monstrously unlikely anything meaningful will come from the talks, the composition of the delegation is encouraging.
Putin was never likely to attend, not least as he wasn’t going to allow it to look as if he had been manipulated and dared by Zelensky. Besides, sometimes it can help break a logjam (think Reagan/Gorbachev), but leaders usually turn up to seal the deal at the end of the process, after experts have done all the hard preparatory work away from the cameras.
Do we honestly think two men who so plainly loathe each other and who have been shamelessly posturing for Trump’s benefit were going to reach some kind of meeting of minds? Possible, but unlikely.
Medinsky led the talks in 2022 that failed to reach a usable deal (we can discount the myth that Zelensky was about to agree to Russia’s demands until Boris Johnson nixed it) so this is meant to signal continuity in process and demands.
Medinsky’s very lack of personal authority isn’t a snub, so much as a sign that Putin wants to manage any process by remote control. He’s a human drone, which at least means any positions he advances/agrees already have VVP’s ok
‘Why would he go if I’m not going?’: Trump reacts to Putin sitting out Istanbul talks
“I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t.” pic.twitter.com/GqOKYYQOrx— RT (@RT_com) May 15, 2025
The rest of the delegation likewise isn’t showy (though the presence of military intel chief Kostyukov is interesting as they were key in POW swaps) but likewise meant to signal a willingness to do serious work. (Although this doesn’t necessarily mean make necessary compromises).
Of course, with no hint that Russia is about to relax its implausible and unfair demands, this may all be for show. It probably is, alas. But talking is always good as there is a *chance*, however minuscule, that talks can lead somewhere.
So although Medinsky is a shallow ideologist, and sending him is in a way a snub, a means for Putin to try and reject Zelensky’s challenge while not looking wholly uncooperative in Trump’s eyes.
…whereas before I was 99% pessimistic about the talks, now I’m only 98% so. That is as much room for optimism as there is, these days.
END
Ukraine Will Never Recognize Occupied Territories As Russia, Zelensky Says From Tu
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 11:05 AM
Update(1105ET): “We don’t yet know the official level of Russians, but from what we see, it looks phony,” Zelensky told reporters in Ankara. So despite the Ukrainian leader earlier declaring “I am here” upon landing in Turkey, he is not in fact at the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul.
This ‘I am here’ yet not actually ‘there’ charade generated some contradictory headlines earlier on Thursday. Zelensky continues his performative gestures aimed at impressing one man: Trump. He even explained that he is sending Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to head the Ukrainian delegation for the Istanbul meeting, now likely underway, out of respect for Trump and the peace process he initiated.
The Kremlin side meanwhile says it’s ready to make compromises:
The head of the Russian delegation in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, told Russian state media RIA that Moscow was “ready for discussions.”
“We are ready for discussions, for resuming the Istanbul negotiations; we are prepared for possible compromises and their discussion,” Medinsky said, referring to the last known direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place in Istanbul in the spring of 2022.
But apparently not on the table is the only thing which could actually end this tragic war – territorial concessions:
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv will never recognize parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied as parts of Russia, as he confirmed peace talks are set to go ahead.
“In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land,” Zelensky told journalists.
Still, the fact the two sides are even at the same table in Istanbul is a huge development and start.
And again, everything Zelensky is doing appears designed to signal Trump – in order to keep America as Kiev’s top weapons backer. “Despite the relatively low level of the Russian delegation, out of respect for President Trump, out of respect for the high level of the Turkish delegation and for President Erdogan, we still want to try to take at least the first steps towards a ceasefire, so I have decided to send our delegation to Istanbul now,” Zelensky said further.
* * *
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
“Everything You Said Was Essentially Dishonest” – RFK Jr. Destroys Dems In First Major Hearing As HHS Secretary
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 02:45 PM
RFK Jr. just walked into Congress and took down his biggest critics in one fell swoop.
This was a masterclass.
A dentist congressman came out swinging on fluoride. By the time Kennedy finished, he realized he picked the wrong fight.
Then, a Democrat tried to accuse Kennedy of politicizing children’s health—but he got emotional, broke through the noise, and completely flipped the script on her.
If you watch one thing today, make it this. Kennedy just took the MAHA agenda to the next level.
Right out of the gate in his first major congressional hearing as HHS Secretary, Kennedy laid out a sweeping plan to reshape HHS from the ground up.
Here’s what’s on deck:
- Ending “gain-of-function experiments and research based upon radical gender ideology”
- A full-scale crackdown on fentanyl and drug addiction
- $94 billion toward better food, fitness, and childcare
- FDA action to remove toxic chemicals from the food supply
- Slashing wasteful NIH projects
- Merging mental health and addiction programs for faster, better care
- Giving local leaders more power to fix problems in their own communities
- A major upgrade to Head Start, the early education program for low-income children
“We intend to make the Trump HHS not just the most effective, but also the most compassionate in U.S. history,” Kennedy said.
Then came a tense back-and-forth with Democrat Rep. Rosa DeLauro, who tried to pin him down on tobacco prevention funding. Kennedy didn’t just answer—he flipped the entire narrative.
DeLauro asked, “Do you commit to following the law, again, fully obligating those funds so that we can help adults who want to quit using tobacco and prevent teens from becoming addicted?”
Kennedy fired back: “Allow me to answer that by pointing out the absolute cataclysmic disorganization of this agency. Under your oversight, for 40 years, we had nine separate offices of Women’s Health.”
And he didn’t stop there.
“When we consolidate them, the Democrats say we’re eliminating them. We’re not. We’re still appropriating the 3.7 billion, but we’re not keeping all nine. We had eight separate offices for minority health. We eliminated one. We had 27 HIV offices.”
DeLauro tried to interrupt—“Okay, let me just. I’m going to—”
But Kennedy kept rolling: “We had 59 behavioral health programs.”
At that point, DeLauro backed off: “I’m well over time.”
One of the most jaw-dropping moments came when Rep. Mike Simpson, a dentist, tried to challenge Kennedy on fluoride—and instantly regretted it.
“We better put a lot more money into dental education because we’re going to need a whole lot more dentists [if we ban fluoride],” Simpson said.
The rebuttal was too easy for Kennedy.
“We now know that virtually all the benefit [from fluoride] is from topical, and we can get that through mouthwashes. We can get through fluoridated toothpastes.”
Then came the line that hit hard:
“The National Toxicity Program issued a report in August, a meta review of all the science that now exists on fluoride, and showed a direct inverse correlation between fluoride exposure dose and lower IQ.”
“Which is an issue that we all have to be concerned with. We want high IQ kids right now,” Kennedy added.
Later, Rep. Steny Hoyer demanded answers on HHS budget cuts—but Kennedy was ready with numbers and a blunt dose of reality.
“We’re spending $2 trillion a year that we don’t have!”
He followed up: “When you’re spending $2 trillion more than you have, you have to make cuts.”
Hoyer pressed again. Kennedy stayed firm.
“The cuts that were done were cuts that were to duplication, to redundancy, to streamlining,” he said. “We increased our workforce 70% in four years. So we were going back to the 2019 levels.”
Then came a moment of visible deflation from Rep. Mark Pocan, who tried—repeatedly—to get Kennedy to endorse vaccines.
“If you had a child today, would you vaccinate that child for measles?” Pocan asked.
Kennedy didn’t bite.
“What I would say is my opinions about vaccines are irrelevant,” he said. “I think what we’re going to try to do is to lay out the pros and cons, the risks and benefits accurately as we understand them.”
Pocan pressed again: “Can you talk about chickenpox?”
Kennedy exposed a reality Pocan didn’t want to hear:
“Again, I don’t want to give advice. I can tell you in Europe, they don’t use the chickenpox vaccine specifically because the preclinical trial shows that when you inoculate the population for chickenpox, you get shingles in older people, which is more dangerous.”
Desperate for something, Pocan asked, “Polio?”
“Again, I don’t want to be giving advice,” Kennedy replied.
Pocan backed off with a clear look of disappointment: “That’s fair. No, that’s fair. Like I said, I was not doing it as a gotcha…”
One of the most shocking revelations came when Kennedy pointed to corruption inside NIH as the reason we still don’t have a cure for Alzheimer’s.
“For 20 years, because of utter corruption and fraud, we were directing Alzheimer’s research to one hypothesis, and any other hypothesis was shut down,” he said.
“We should have the cure for Alzheimer’s today. We don’t have it PURELY because of corruption at NIH. And we are going to have it quickly.”
Rep. Lois Frankel attacked Kennedy’s use of HHS funds, characterizing it as Elon Musk randomly plugging numbers into a computer to make decisions.
Kennedy fired back, taking offense at that false narrative.
“Everything that you said was essentially dishonest,” he told her.
Later, Kennedy clashed with Rep. DeLauro once more. This time, he let loose.
“Look at our children, they’re the sickest children in the world,” he said passionately.
Kennedy delivered a direct blow to DeLauro, noting he succeeded where she failed.
“Congresswoman DeLauro, you say that you’ve worked for 20 years on getting food dye out. Then give me credit!” he exclaimed. “I got it out in 100 days.”
He then closed with a call to unity:
“So, let’s work together and do something that we all believe in, which is have healthy kids in our country for God’s sake. There’s no such thing as Republican children or Democratic children. There’s just kids, and we should all be concerned with them.”
Watch the full testimony below:
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Geothermal energy? Is this a means to create clean cheap renewable energy electricity source? Using water, hot water located deep under the earth’s surface, replenishing constantly? Heat from earth’s
crust heats water under the earth’s surface; when the water is hot enough, it can break away up to the earth’s surface, as hot water, very hot water; with advances in technology, why can’t we harness
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 15 |
this natural renewable resource? Why can’t we exploit this more? To get power from geothermal wells…binary cycle geothermal, flash steam geothermal powerplant…? a clean, around the clock renewable energy source? I am no expert on this but studying it and reading lots on it…I find fascinating. Low emission, small negligible physical footprint…minimal environmental impact…I know some entities and places are already tapping into this energy source.
U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) focuses on realizing the potential to generate electricity and produce heating and cooling for U.S. homes from domestic geothermal resources. To do so, GTO works in partnership with industry, academia, DOE’s national laboratories, and others on research, development, and demonstration activities focused on these areas:
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
- Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) – Advancing the commercial viability of EGS (human-made geothermal energy).
- Hydrothermal Resources – Advancing technologies to expand electricity generation using naturally occurring geothermal resources and value-added opportunities like lithium extraction.
- Low-Temperature and Coproduced Resources – Improving the efficiency and expanding the utility of low-temperature (<300° F) geothermal systems such as geothermal heat pumps and district heating and cooling systems.
- Data, Modeling, and Analysis – Addressing nontechnical barriers to geothermal deployment through environmental and resource assessments, data stewardship, and analytical tools.
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
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| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESOutrage Erupts After Special Agreement Between Karmelo Anthony and His School Is AnnouncedFrisco, Texas, is reeling from news that Karmelo Anthony, a high school senior charged with the fatal stabbing of fellow teen Austin Metcalf, will be allowed to graduate high school.The decision, announced Tuesday, has sparked widespread outrage among residents, victims’ advocates, and online commentators.Anthony, a student at Frisco Centennial High School, was arrested on April 2, for allegedly stabbing 17-year-old …READ THE FULL REPORTWatch: Trump Greeted by Camels and Arabian Horses After Arriving in Mideast Country for TalksPresident Donald Trump and his motorcade were greeted by dozens of mounted camels after his plane landed in Qatar Wednesday morning as he continues his four-day trip to the Middle East.“We appreciate those camels,” Trump said Wednesday while meeting with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.“I haven’t seen camels like that in a long time. And really, we appreciate …READ THE FULL REPORTMinnesota Governor and National Guard Begin Preparing for Riots Over Possible Derek Chauvin PardonGov. Tim Walz, the Minnesota National Guard, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and Hennepin County Sheriff Dawanna Witt have reportedly all been briefed on preparations for potential riots if former police officer Derek Chauvin is granted a presidential pardon.Chauvin, of course, was the officer filmed kneeling on drug addict George Floyd during his fatal interaction with police.His death caused nationwide deadly …READ THE FULL REPORTEPA Chief Lee Zeldin to Get Rid of Car Feature ‘Everyone Hates’EPA Chief Lee Zeldin this week announced his agency is getting rid of the ‘start/stop’ technology where your car dies at every red light.“Start/stop technology: where your car dies at every red light so companies get a climate participation trophy. EPA approved it, and everyone hates it, so we’re fixing it,” Lee Zeldin said.Start/stop technology: where your car dies at …READ THE FULL REPORTWatch: Chaos Erupts at Capitol Hill Hearing After Protesters Shout Over RFK JrAngry protesters disrupted a Tuesday hearing on Capitol Hill during which Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testified about how the agency’s 2026 budget aligns with President Donald Trump’s agenda.Kennedy did not even finish his opening statement when multiple protesters disrupted his testimony, yelling that the HHS secretary is killing people “with hate.”“RFK kills people with hate!” …READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“Patience To See, Not To Guess”
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 11:50 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist
Patience To See
Tech names drove the NASDAQ and S&P500 to further gains yesterday, while the Dow Jones fell for a second-straight session. Semiconductors performed especially well as fund managers caught underweight high-beta US megacaps continued a buying spree that was sparked by a 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China announced on Monday. Nvidia posted a 4.16% gain and AMD was up 4.68% as both companies inked deals with Saudi Arabia to sell more chips for AI applications. European stocks underperformed with most major indexes closing lower, and the Nikkei fell as funds flowed back into Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and China’s CSI300.
While stocks were rising, US 10-year bond yields poked back above the psychological 4.50% level to close the day up 6bps at 4.54%. 30-year Treasury yields closed half a bip below the intraday highs at 4.98%, which means that yields on both the 10-year and the 30-year are now trading above the levels that were in effect on April 9th when the Trump administration apparently cried “uncle!” in response to bond market pressure and kicked the implementation of reciprocal tariffs into the long grass for 90 days.
Perhaps we are about to find out whether it really was rising bond yields that forced the about face on those reciprocal tariffs, or if Scott Bessent has some other rabbit to pull out of his hat to force long yields lower. Rising bond yields is a problem for America’s chief bond salesman who has trillions of Dollars’ worth of debt to refinance in the months ahead. With the Fed still engaged in quantitative tightening, and enormous budget deficits still being run (despite DOGE), Bessent is going to have to work hard to sniff out other bids, and US homebuyers better hope that he can convince offshore investors that Treasuries yielding 4.5-5% are just too juicy to last. One wonders how durable the rally in long-duration tech can be while yields on long bonds are making new highs.
Fed Speakers yesterday offered no help to the Treasury Secretary by giving the impression that there is no rush to cut the Fed Funds rate any further. Mary Daly said that the Fed had to have “patience to see, not to guess”, which seems to discount the possibility of any kind of pre-emptive policy action. Daly also said that if you take a step back from all the tariff uncertainty the underlying economy is experiencing solid growth, with a strong labor market and declining inflation. That assessment might be a little bit like saying that the Dinosaurs were in really good shape if you ignore the uncertain effects of the approaching meteor.
In the land of hard data, the US economy shrank in Q1 because of a surge in imports that could be replicated in Q2 as the 90-day reprieve on China tariffs encourages importers and retailers to “reload the gun” on goods inventories. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the definition of a recession, but get ready for plenty of commentators to suggest that this one doesn’t really count (it wouldn’t be the first time!).
Meanwhile, President Trump continues his dealmaking tour of the Middle East where Qatar has now reportedly agreed to purchase as many as 210 new jets from Boeing. This comes off the back of the semiconductor, energy and military hardware deals signed in Saudi Arabia, Trump’s announcement that sanctions on Syria will be lifted and his meeting with the new Syrian President, who he urged to normalize relations with Israel.
It’s worth pointing out that while the markets were mostly focused on deals to sell more US chips and US energy, there were also announcements of new sanctions on companies facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to China and a new guidance issued by the Commerce Department that the use of Huawei’s Ascend AI chips “anywhere in the world” constituted a violation of US export controls.
As this Daily noted yesterday, 90-day tariff reduction notwithstanding, what is happening in the Middle East and with trade more broadly should serve as a signal that geopolitical competition between the United States and China isn’t going away.
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
INDIA
INDIA PAKISTAN
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1193 UP 0.0012 PTS OR 12 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 145.98 DOWN 0.656 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3285 UP 0021 OR 21 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3983 UP 0.0026 (CDN DOLLAR UP 26 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 23.23 PTS OR 0.68%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 187.49 PTS OR 0.79%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .11%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 187.49 PTS OR 0.79%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 23.23 PTS OR 0.68%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.11%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 372.62 PTS OR 0.79%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3178.15
silver:$32.13
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.72 DOWN 0.13 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.134% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.471% UP 0 FULL POINTS AND 70/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.255 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.646 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6410 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1201 UP .0020 OR 20 basis points
USA/Japan: 145,80 DOWN 0.933 OR YEN IS UP 93 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7244 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0016 OR 16 BASIS pts to 1.3993
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.2073, CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.2062:
TURKISH LIRA: 38.68 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.460
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.487% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.949 DOWN 2 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.980 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3193.90
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.23
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 48.74 PTS OR 0.57%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 168.58 pts or 0.72%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 16.68 pts or 0.21%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 90.00 pts or 0.65 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 62.14 or 0.15%
WTI Oil price 61.27 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 64.62 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.45 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 8/ 100
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.7285 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.227 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.809 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1182 down 0.0001 OR 1 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3304 up .0041 OR 41 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.655 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.468
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.59 DOWN 1.039 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3963 DOWN 0.0016 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.79
Brent OIL: 64.61
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 4.447
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 PTS to 4.913%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 3.965%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.181 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.775 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.68 DOWN 0.20 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.70 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.00 UP 0 AND 37/100 roubles
GOLD $3229.80 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 32.59(3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 276.69 OR 0.65%
NASDAQ 100 UP 16.62PTS OR 0.08%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.06 DOWN 0.56 PTS OR 3.01%
GLD: $ 297.84 UP 4.68 PTS OR 1.60%
SLV/ $29.61 UP 0.36 PTS OR OR 1.23%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 178.87 OR 0.70%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
Defensives Dominate As Gold Pumps, Soft-Data Jumps, Inflation Slumps
MORNING NEWS
AFTERNOON NEWS:
Meta Stumbles: Delays Release Of Flagship “Behemoth” AI Model Over Performance Concerns
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 03:56 PM
A new report from The Wall Street Journal hit the wires late Thursday during the U.S. cash session, revealing that Meta is reportedly delaying the release of its flagship AI model, “Behemoth,” due to internal concerns over its performance and mounting questions about its multibillion-dollar splurge in AI investments.
Initially slated for an April release around Meta’s inaugural AI conference (LlamaCon) for developers, Behemoth has been pushed to late in the second half of this year.
The delays come as Meta has publicly claimed that Behemoth outperforms competitors like OpenAI and Google on certain benchmarks. People familiar with the delays say Behemoth has faced “training challenges.”
Since Meta’s first Llama model was released in early 2023, 11 of the 14 original researchers from the company’s Fundamental AI Research Team have left.
Meanwhile, Meta disclosed in its latest earnings report that it had raised its capital expenditure forecast to between $64 billion and $72 billion, up from a previous range of $60 billion to $65 billion—a significant portion of that increase earmarked for AI infrastructure.
This development mirrors delays at other major AI labs, including OpenAI and Anthropic, suggesting that progress in large language models has slowed.
“Right now, the progress is quite small across all the labs, all the models,” Ravid Shwartz-Ziv, an assistant professor and faculty fellow at New York University’s Center for Data Science, told WSJ.
In markets, Meta shares are down a little more than 2% – coming into resistance after a multi-week 37% run.
What could possibly go wrong?
. . .
USA DATA
US Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside, But.
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 08:41 AM
If BofA’s omniscient analysts are right (and they have been serially on the correct side of this data series relative to consensus for months), then traders should brace for disappointment this morning for the retail sales data.
But…
For once, the BofA analysts were incorrect as headline retail sales rose 0.1% MoM (better than the 0.0% MoM exp, but this follows a sizable upward revision in March to +1.7% MoM (from +1.4%). With the revision that left retail sales up 5.2% YoY – near its highest since Dec 2023
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Sporting Goods sales declined the most while Building Materials rose the most…
The (tariff front running) surge in Motor Vehicle Sales last month has gone…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, this data is nominal, so adjusting ()very roughly) for inflation, retail sales rose 2.8% YoY, equalling its highest since Feb 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
More problematically, the Control Group – which feeds directly into GDP – was a big miss, dropping 0.2% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.3% MoM rise)…
Source: Bloomberg
So, the good news is bottom-up Americans are spending… but top-down GDP may be negatively affected.
end
PPI plummets!! Trump is right about tariffs having little effect on inflation
(zerohedge)
US Producer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID Lockdowns
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 09:00 AM
Following the cooler than expected CPI, US Producer Prices plunged in April, down 0.5% MoM (vs +0.2% MoM exp) – the biggest drop since April 2020 (but we note that last month’s 0.4% MoM decline was revised up to unchanged). The headline print was dragged down to +2.4% YoY (the lowest since Sept 2024)…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Prices for final demand services moved down 0.7 percent in April, the largest decline since the index began in December 2009.
Source: Bloomberg
Core Producer Prices plunged by the most on record (back to 2010)…
Source: Bloomberg
PPI Final Demand Services
Prices for final demand services moved down 0.7 percent in April, the largest decline since the index began in December 2009. Over two-thirds of the broad-based decrease can be traced to margins for final demand trade services, which dropped 1.6 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
- Product detail: Over 40 percent of the April decline in the index for final demand services is attributable to margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which dropped 6.1 percent. The indexes for portfolio management, food and alcohol wholesaling, system software publishing, traveler accommodation services, and airline passenger services also fell. Conversely, prices for outpatient care (partial) advanced 0.3 percent. The indexes for furniture retailing and for inpatient care also moved up. (See table 2.)
PPI Final demand goods
Prices for final demand goods were unchanged in April following a 0.9-percent decrease in March. In April, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.4 percent. In contrast, prices for final demand foods and for final demand energy declined 1.0 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
- Product detail: Among final demand goods in April, the index for general purpose machinery and equipment advanced 1.1 percent. Prices for residential electric power, fresh and dry vegetables, non-electronic cigarettes, and utility natural gas also moved up. Conversely, the index for chicken eggs dropped 39.4 percent. Prices for gasoline, gas fuels, diesel fuel, and primary basic organic chemicals also fell.
Margin pressure remains on American corporations…
Source: Bloomberg
It would appear that despite all the FUD, companies are soaking up any tariff price increases and NOT passing them on to customers.
Finally, energy prices are set to drag CPI and PPI even lower in the next month or so…
Source: Bloomberg
But, but, but… the PhDs said tariffs were inflationary!!
end
Is DOGE Starting To Work? ‘Deep TriState’ Jobless Claims Surged Last Week
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 09:13 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time was flat from the prior week at 229k (the same level it was at in Jan 2022)…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline continuing claims remains below the Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
But, drilling down, the ‘Deep Tristate’ saw initial jobless claims spike last week…
Source: Bloomberg
…and continuing jobless claims in the ‘Deep TriState’ also rose as perhaps DOGE is starting to have some effects…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the chart that sums up the entire farcical FUD-fest about the US labor market and Trump’s terrible tariff trauma…
Source: Bloomberg
When will the CEOs face reality?
end
this may become worrisome!
US Factory Production Tumbled In April, But..
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 10:10 AM
Headline industrial production held steady in April, driven by utilities production, while manufacturing production declined 0.4% due to decreased production of vehicles and nondurable goods.
Source: Bloomberg
The 0.4% decrease in manufacturing production (followed an upwardly revised 0.4% gain a month earlier) was the first decline since October 2024 and worse than the expected 0.3% decline…
Source: Bloomberg
However, as the chart above shows, despite the decline, upward revisions raised production by 1.2% YoY – the biggest rise since Oct 2022 (tariff-front-running?).
Output at utilities increased, while mining and energy extraction dropped.
The decrease in April factory output reflected declining production of motor vehicles, computers and apparel.
The Fed’s report showed capacity utilization at factories, a measure of potential output being used, fell to 76.8%.
Does April’s decline mean we reached peak tariff-front-running? And will that drag down ‘hard’ data?
end
US Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps To Lowest Since 2023
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 10:45 AM
Confidence among US homebuilders slumped in May to the lowest level since late 2023 as the NAHB sentiment index tumbled 6 points to 34 (well below the 40 expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
All three components that make up the index fell, with a measure of expected sales in the next six months sliding to an 18-month low.
A gauge of present sales dropped to the lowest since late 2022, while traffic of prospective buyers was the weakest in 1 1/2 years.
“The spring home buying season has gotten off to a slow start as persistent elevated interest rates, policy uncertainty and building material cost factors hurt builder sentiment in May,” NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a builder and developer from Lexington, North Carolina, said in a statement.
Of course, we all know who is to blame for this…
“Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from the stop-and-start tariff issues has hurt builder confidence but the initial trade arrangements with the United Kingdom and China are a welcome development,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
“Still, the overall actions on tariffs in recent weeks have had a negative impact on builders, as 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to uncertainty around material prices.”
Let’s not forget that new mortgage rates are still sky-high relative to ‘average’ existing mortgage rates and homebuilders can’t afford to subsidize that difference forever…
In May, 34% of builders reported cutting prices, the largest share since December 2023, NAHB said. The share of builders reporting using sales incentives was unchanged at 61%.
The only thing is, homeBUYER sentiment has been in the shitter for months because of high rates and lack of affordability…
Maybe, homeBUILDERS are finally waking up to reality as Upton Sinclair said: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
HOWEVER….
WALMART
Warns of imminent price hikes
(zerohedge)
Walmart Delivers Solid Earnings, Warns Of Imminent Price Hi
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 09:00 AM
Walmart reported better-than-expected first-quarter results for the period ending April 30 but cautioned that the trade war will raise prices on certain items as early as this month. The warning underscores that the mega retailer’s low-price model is threatened amid an ongoing value war with other U.S. retailers.
The nation’s largest retailer posted first-quarter results showing a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase at U.S. Walmart stores, surpassing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 3.85%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 61 cents, also beating the 58-cent estimate.
1Q25 results demonstrate that Walmart’s pricing power to offer low-cost products continues to increase.
Here’s a highlight of the 1Q results (ended April 30):
Adjusted EPS: $0.61 vs. $0.58 estimate
Revenue: $165.61B (+2.5% y/y) vs. $166.02B estimate
U.S. Comparable Sales (ex-gas): Walmart
- Walmart stores: +4.5% vs. +3.85% estimate
- Sam’s Club: +6.7% vs. +4.93% estimate
E-Commerce Growth
- Walmart U.S.: +21% vs. +13.8% estimate
- Sam’s Club: +27% vs. +14.3% estimate
Operating Cash Flow: $5.4B
From the earnings deck:
Total revenues/gross profit
Operating expense/income detail
EPS/Cash flow
Additional details…
Walmart maintained its full-year guidance, which was issued in February.
- Q2 Sales Growth Forecast: +3.5% to +4.5%
- FY2026 EPS Guidance (unchanged): $2.50–$2.60 vs. $2.61 estimate
- FY2026 Net Sales Growth (unchanged): +3% to +4%
- END
MARYLAND
“Paying The Price For Failed Leadership”: Maryland Hit With Moody’s First Credit Downgrade In 50 Years
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Maryland’s tax-and-spend Democrats—obsessed with a far-left progressive agenda, ranging from condoms for kids to gender identity to reparations to climate change to criminal illegal aliens—have pushed the state closer and closer to the brink. The self-created financial mess unfolding in the state predates President Trump’s second term and derives from leftist activists who have seized power in recent years and squandered taxpayer funds.
Now, Maryland’s financial credit profile is deteriorating—for the first time in decades—after Moody’s downgraded the state’s creditworthiness to Aa1 from AAA, according to Fox Baltimore.
Since 1973, Maryland has maintained a top-tier credit rating, long seen as a reflection of fiscal discipline and responsible governance. However, far-left Democrats in Annapolis have chosen to run deficits to fund their progressive pet projects. This credit downgrade puts Maryland on the disastrous pathway toward becoming “Illinois 2.0.”
The move by Moody’s ends more than three decades in which Maryland held the highest bond rating from the three rating agencies: Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch. Moody’s had given Maryland a AAA rating every year since 1973 — until Wednesday. Prior to Wednesday’s announcement, Maryland was one of 14 states to have the highest rating from the three major agencies — Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poors. –Maryland Matters
About a year ago, Moody’s downgraded the state’s outlook from stable to “negative,” citing significant concerns about looming structural deficits due to Annapolis’ out-of-control education spending.
Moody’s assessment of Maryland’s deteriorating creditworthiness comes as Democrats in control of the General Assembly and the governor’s seat struggle to tame a projected $3.3 billion deficit through cuts, cost shifts, and $1.6 billion in taxes and fees.
Democratic leaders in Maryland—including Governor Wes Moore, Senate President Bill Ferguson, House Speaker Adrienne Jones, the state treasurer, and the comptroller—are pointing fingers at federal cutbacks tied to President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative as the source of the state’s fiscal strain.
“To put it bluntly, this is a Trump downgrade. Over the last one hundred days, the federal administration’s decisions have wreaked havoc on the entire region, including Maryland,” the joint statement from Gov. Moore and others stated, adding, “Washington, D.C. received a credit downgrade. Thousands of federal workers are losing their jobs. Actual and proposed cuts to everything from health care to education will continue to exact an incalculable toll on Maryland and states across the country.”
But this deflection by Maryland Democrats masks years of unsustainable progressive policy decisions not rooted in financially sound decision-making.
Meanwhile, Maryland’s economy remains heavily exposed to government spending because roughly 20% of its GDP is tied to government spending: 10% from local government, 6% from the federal sector, and 4% from state operations (as of 2023). In such a heavily government-reliant economy, even modest reductions in government activity can have outsized effects, yet those cuts take time to work into the system.
Republicans have criticized Gov. Moore and Democrats for their previous spending binge…
“A year ago, Moody’s changed Maryland’s fiscal outlook to ‘negative’ due to our looming deficits and Blueprint spending. This was well before President Trump’s reelection and before any federal retrenchment,” Republican House Minority Leader Jason Buckel said via a statement, adding, “Foisting the blame anywhere but at the feet of the excessive spending championed by Maryland’s Democratic party is, at best, disingenuous.”
“Governor Moore promised to make this ‘Maryland’s Decade,’ but he and Maryland’s Democratic supermajority keep putting all their eggs in one basket, banking our entire economy on the federal government instead of building a diversified, competitive private sector,” said Republican Senate Minority Whip Justin Ready.
“Since well before Governor Moore, Maryland governors—Democrats and Republicans alike—protected this AAA rating as a symbol of our financial integrity,” said Republican Senate Minority Leader Steve Hershey.
Hershey noted, “But in just over a year, Governor Moore’s administration has eroded that legacy through unchecked spending and a lack of serious fiscal discipline. His feel-good messaging can’t cover up the fact that the choices made under his leadership have left Maryland weaker, not stronger.”
In February, we noted:
Our recent conversation with a large asset management firm in the region revealed the state’s dire fiscal situation and how their clients are being told not to add Maryland munis to their bond portfolio. Some clients are being advised to find residency in conservative states amid fears Democrats will enact out-of-control tax hikes as the state implodes.
Even though Maryland still holds one of the highest possible credit ratings, the slippery slope has begun for the state as unaccountable Democrats have done everything in their power to ignore taxpayers to prioritize illegal criminal aliens, woke, and climate change nonsense.
Maryland’s demise via a series of reporting pieces:
- June 5, 2024: “Self-Created Hole”: Education Reforms Push Maryland Toward Financial Cliff
- July 13, 2024: Maryland “Can’t Import Itself Out Of Energy Crisis” Amid Urgent Need To Boost In-State Power Generation
- November 28, 2024: Maryland’s Death Spiral: Reckless Democratic Lawmakers Spark Budget Crisis Fears As “Deep Recession” Looms
- February 23: Maryland Democrats’ ‘Extremist’ Green Agenda Sparks Power Bill Crisis Crippling Households
- February 27: Maryland Democrats “Clearly In Denial” As State Faces Twin Crises
- March 5: Maryland Dems Lose All Sense Of Reality: Focus On Condoms For Kids, Reparations As Crises Pile Up
- March 29: Maryland Democrats Pass “Sleep Tax” – Is A Thinking Tax Next?
- April 3: Far-Left Maryland Lawmakers Pass Reparations Bill While Financial Crisis Looms
. . END
This could be very troublesome!
UnitedHealth Group Slams “Deeply Irresponsible” WSJ Report As Shares Suffer Worst Weekly Crash Since 1998
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 10:32 PM
Update (1032ET):
UnitedHealth Group shares plunged in early U.S. cash trading after The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday evening that the Department of Justice is conducting an ongoing criminal investigation into the company’s Medicare practices.
UnitedHealth Group rejected WSJ’s claims, saying:
We have not been notified by the Department of Justice of the supposed criminal investigation reported, without official attribution, in the Wall Street Journal today.
The WSJ’s reporting is deeply irresponsible, as even it admits that the “exact nature of the potential criminal allegations is unclear.”
We stand by the integrity of our Medicare Advantage program.
Shares of UnitedHealth are down 17% on the session. Since mid-April, shares have crashed 58% on a series of negative news, including earlier this week:
Shares are so far down 32% on the week, the weekly performance since the first week of August 1998.
Such swift and steep drawdowns have speculators wondering whether a bottom is near—a tough call, but definitely one to keep a close eye on.
* * *
And the hits just keep on coming…
UNH shares are plunging after hours (down 6% and back below $300 for the first time since September 2020) following a report from The Wall Street Journal that, according to people familiar with the matter, the DOJ is investigating UnitedHealth Group for possible criminal Medicare fraud related to its Medicare Advantage business.
While the exact nature of the potential criminal allegations against UnitedHealth is unclear, the people said the federal investigation is focusing on the company’s Medicare Advantage business practices.
The Justice Department’s criminal healthcare fraud unit focuses on crimes such as kickbacks that trigger higher Medicare and Medicare payments.
UnitedHealth’s latest annual securities filing says the company “has been involved or is currently involved in various governmental investigations, audits and reviews,” and flags involved agencies including the Justice Department.
It doesn’t specifically mention the criminal, civil, and antitrust probes the Journal has reported.
The probe adds to a list of government inquiries into the company, including investigations of potential antitrust violations and a civil investigation of its Medicare billing practices, including at its doctors offices.
All of this comes as the Trump administration and Congress look to cut federal health spending, a key source of UnitedHealth’s success.
END
Trump Very Displeased With Tim Cook’s ‘Made-In-India’ iPhone Blitz, Wants Production In USA
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 11:30 AM
Apple is turbocharging its “friend-shoring” strategy by shifting more iPhone production from China to India—a move that could soon result in American consumers purchasing iPhones made in India. However, during President Trump’s Gulf tour, he expressed new concern over the supply chain shift (at least for the first time publicly), urging Apple CEO Tim Cook to re-shore some of that iPhone production to the United States.
“I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday,” Trump told reporters in Qatar on Thursday, on his latest leg of his Middle East tour. The president said his problem centers around Indian factories producing a “majority” of iPhones for the U.S.
Trump criticized Cook’s plan: “I said to him,’ My friend, I treated you very well. You’re coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you’re building all over India.’ I don’t want you building in India.”
As a result of their meeting, Trump said Apple will be “upping their production in the United States.”
Earlier in the week, in the first leg of his tour, Trump praised Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, saying: “Tim Cook isn’t here, but you are.”
Trump’s comments follow a recent Financial Times report indicating that Apple’s friend-shoring strategy could result in as many as 60 million iPhones being produced in India by 2026—or the amount required to satisfy the U.S. market.
- Apple Races To Boost iPhone Production In India, Vietnam As Trump Pauses Tariffs
- Apple Turbocharges Friendshoring: Your Next iPhone Could Be Made In India
Apple does not produce smartphones in North America but has pledged to invest $500 billion in the U.S. market over the next four years.
Wall Street analysts have estimated that U.S. iPhone production would take years and cost tens of billions of dollars.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently spoke with Cook about ramping up iPhone production in the U.S. Cook told Lutnick that “robotic arms” would be needed for production lines.
Lutnick said, “He’s going to build it here,” adding, “And Americans are going to be the technicians who drive those factories. They’re not going to be the ones screwing it in.”
Wedbush Securities recently estimated that a fully American-made iPhone could cost as much as $3,500, compared to the current average price of around $1,000. There are reports the next model could see the first price hike since the 2017 debut of the iPhone X.
Next lineup of iPhone…
Tarun Pathak, research director at tech analytics firm Counterpoint, said Trump’s comments are a “familiar tactic from the president. He wants to push Apple to localize more and build a supply chain in the U.S., which is not going to happen overnight,” adding, “Making in the US will also be much more expensive than assembling iPhones in India.”
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON/TUCKER CARLSON
Ed Martin Reveals J6 Pipe Bomber Probe Shakeup, Warns DOJ ‘Much, Much Worse Than People Think’
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 04:40 PM
Ed Martin, a senior official in the Trump administration’s Department of Justice, is warning that corruption within federal law enforcement is far more severe than the American public realizes. Martin, who holds the roles of Director of the Weaponization Working Group, Associate Deputy Attorney General, and Pardon Attorney, made the comments during an interview with Tucker Carlson.
Martin weighed in the unresolved case of the January 6, 2021, pipe bomber, expressing frustration with the investigation’s lack of progress, wondering whether the lack of answers may have been intentional. “The pipe bomber—as a prosecutor – I’ve got the pipe bomber case in my office,” Martin told Carlson. Martin revealed FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino told him that the bureau had reassigned agents to the case, however, the renewed effort was still in it early stages. “It’s been going on for five weeks?” Martin said, likening the past probe to the bumbling “Keystone Cops.”
Starts at 16 minutes
Martin further criticized the FBI’s previously handling of the case, alleging that basic investigative steps were overlooked. “They didn’t interview some of the people that you would have said, ‘That might be a suspect.’ They hadn’t interviewed him,” he said. Raising concerns about the agency’s competence, he added, “The question becomes, ‘what’s happening here?’ Is it incompetence? It feels worse than incompetence.”
When asked by Carlson whether the DOJ is worse than people believe, Martin went further, declaring, “I think it’s worse than incompetence.” However, he urged that importance of following the facts and not getting ahead of investigations, saying, “The only way forward is not to describe what I think of the motives but to expose over and over again what’s happened. If you expose what happened and the truth gets out, then accountability is possible.”
Martin went on to praise Bongino’s efforts, noting, “He is going hammer and tongs at this stuff.” The Trump DOJ official acknowledged the complexity of pursuing accountability, saying, “You can’t arrest everybody in the first month, but you got to get this going.”
Martin then described the issues facing the DOJ as “much, much worse than people think.”
The FBI has begun delivering subpoenaed documents to House Judiciary Committee Republicans, addressing demands for greater “transparency and accountability” within the bureau, the Epoch Times reported in March.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, had pressed FBI Director Kash Patel in a March 7 letter for information and records allegedly withheld during the tenure of former FBI Director Christopher Wray.
In response, FBI Assistant Director Marshall Yates provided an initial batch of documents covering key issues, including the investigation into pipe bombs discovered near the Democratic and Republican National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C., in January 2021, as well as the FBI’s interactions with social media platforms and probes into threats against school officials.
Jordan’s push for transparency began with a February 24 letter, sent shortly after Patel’s confirmation as FBI Director. The letter targeted Wray’s leadership, accusing him of “slow-walking” the pipe bomb investigation tied to the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot and questioning the FBI’s use of “confidential human sources” during the event.
Some Republicans have claimed FBI informants were active on January 6, a claim partially substantiated by a December 2024 report from the FBI’s inspector general. While the report confirmed no undercover FBI agents were present, it revealed over two dozen informants were at the Capitol that day, according to the Epoch Times.
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USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 14, 2025 Issue 7492 | Independent View of the News |
| Nissan weighs moving Sentra production from Mexico to U.S. to avoid tariffs https://www.autonews.com/nissan/an-nissan-considers-onshoring-sentra-to-skirt-tariffs-0514/ Siemens Healthineers relocates Varian’s Mexico manufacturing to the US (Palo Alto, CA) https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/news/siemens-healthineers-relocates-varians-mexico-manufacturing-to-the-us/ US, Qatar deals to generate $1.2 trillion in ‘economic exchange’, White House Says – Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/us-qatar-deals-generate-12-trillion-economic-exchange-white-house-says-2025-05-14/ Boeing Wins Largest-Ever Order as Qatar Buys Long-Renge Jets (210 787 & 777X) – BBG Trillions of dollars in US business investment have been announced. Now think of all the experts, including Obama, that asserted this would be impossible, a pipe dream! @charliekirk11: Understand what is really happening right now. President Trump is recalibrating the world to look West. Like them or not like them, it’s in America’s interest that these countries invest in and partner with America, not China. @zerohedge: Tesla up 50% since the Walz bottom. (Daffy VP candidate that cheered for TSLA’s demise) ESMs gyrated between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening on Wednesday until they broke higher after the 1:00 ET Nikkei close. After rallying to 5917.75 at 3:13 ET, ESMs commenced a choppy decline that took the June Emini S&P 500 contract to 5896.25 at 6:08 ET. ESMs then surged to 5922.50 at 7:28 ET but created a megaphone top that ended with a daily high of 5925.00 at 9:34 ET. The dump from the apparent massive ‘pump & dump’ scheme appeared within 5 minutes of the NYSE opening. ESMs sank to 5892.50 at 11:02 ET on an irregular A-B-C declined. ESMs then soared to 5921.00 at 12:33 ET but created another ‘3 Little Indian’ top (3 minor new highs in short order). ESMs then tumbled to a daily low of 5890.00 at 13:22 ET. The afternoon A-B-C rally took ESMs to 5917.50 at 14:32 ET. Another late ESMs liquidation developed. ESMs sank to 5898.75 at 15:47 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESMs to 5916.50 at 15:54 ET. But trader liquidation quickly developed; ESMs fell to 5906.50 at 15:59 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied moderately early, which dragged Nasdaq and the Naz 100 to commensurate gains. The standard illegal late ESM manipulation appeared. Gold got hammered even though the dollar declined modestly. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks peaked within 5 minutes of the NYSE opening. Another late ESM drop appeared. USMs were soft all session, were -9/32 at NYSE close. Stocks look extremely tired; Fangs buying is keeping stocks buoyant. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What major issues will ‘experts’ be wrong about next? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5890.41 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5906.55; 5872.11 @Patri0tContr0l: RFK Jr says corruption at NIH is the SOLE REASON there isn’t a cure for Alzheimer’s: “For 20 years, because of utter corruption and fraud, we were directing Alzheimer’s research to one hypothesis, and any other hypothesis was shut down. We should have the cure for Alzheimer’s today. We don’t have it PURELY because of corruption at NIH. And we are going to have it quickly.” https://x.com/Patri0tContr0l/status/1922667967633879129 F-47 Now Has an Officially Stated Combat Radius Of 1,000+ Nautical Miles We have gotten our first official basic specifications for the Air Force’s Next Generation F-47 fighter and its accompanying drones… Being able to pierce deeply into an enemy’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubble is an absolutely essential feature of the upcoming 6th generation fighter from Boeing… The F-47 will feature “Stealth ++” as opposed to the F-22’s “Stealth +” and the F-35’s “Stealth,”… https://www.twz.com/air/f-47-now-has-an-officially-stated-combat-radius-of-1000-nautical-miles @VigilantFox: Victor Davis Hanson compares media coverage of violent criminal alien Abgrego Garcia to Elon Musk—and the double standard is staggering. Hanson ripped the MSM to pieces. He unmasked how the corporate press treats a violent, illegal alien as a victim—while vilifying one of the most accomplished innovators of our time, @elonmusk… https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1922683887815176275 Michigan man, 19, accused of planning mass shooting at military base on behalf of ISIS Ammar Abdulmajid-Mohamed Said, 19, of Melvindale, Michigan… allegedly provided armor-piercing ammunition and magazines for the planned attack, surveilled the base by flying a drone over it, trained the undercover officers on firearms and how to build Molotov cocktails, and instructed the officers on how to enter the base and what building to target… https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/melvindale-michigan-man-accused-attempted-attack-military-base-isis/ There seems to be an inordinate number of Chinese spies and would-be-Middle East terrorists in the USA. Trump calls top Democrat Schumer a ‘Palestinian’ over Qatar Aeroplan gift – Euro News “There’s something wrong with him… You know, I’ve known him a long time and there’s something wrong. He’s lost his confidence, totally… I don’t know what it is with Schumer.”… Rogue communication devices found in Chinese solar power inverters The rogue components provide additional, undocumented communication channels that could allow firewalls to be circumvented remotely, with potentially catastrophic consequences… “We know that China believes there is value in placing at least some elements of our core infrastructure at risk of destruction or disruption,” said Mike Rogers, a former director of the U.S. National Security Agency. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/ghost-machine-rogue-communication-devices-found-chinese-inverters-2025-05-14/ @Barchart: Total Put/Call Ratio just plunged to its lowest level since December 13, 2010. Bulls are back in full force. https://x.com/Barchart/status/1922797160287883355 Today – The action of the past two sessions indicates that stocks are exhausted. The US stock market is extremely overbought on a short-term basis and very overbought on a medium-term basis. Short covering and momentum buying of Fangs/Mag 7 stocks is keeping the general market buoyant. It is time for stocks to retrench and rest. It will be interesting to see what Powell says. ESMs are -10.00; NQMs are -15.25; and USMs are -5/32 at 20:30 ET. Expected Economic Data: May Empire Mfg. -8.0; April Retail Sales 0.0% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.3%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; April PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 3.1% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 228k, Continuing Claims 1.89m; April Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, Mfg. Production -0.2%, Capacity Utilization 77.8%; May NAHB Housing Market Index 40 Fed Speakers: Powell 8:40 ET, Gov Barr 14:05 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5552; 100-day MA: 5771; 150-day MA: 58120; 200-day MA: 5755 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,002; 100-day MA: 42,314; 150-day MA: 42,694; 200-day MA: 42,268 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5892.58 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5447.29 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5662.73 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5851.35 triggers a sell signal Clinton’s charity confirms Qatar’s $1 million gift while she was at State Department 11/4/2016 https://www.reuters.com/article/world/clintons-charity-confirms-qatars-1-million-gift-while-she-was-at-state-depart-idUSKBN12Z2SX/ @PeterBernegger: Broward County Florida reported 223 precinct voting records with the same percentage of Blank Ballots as at least one other precinct. Either in the same year or across different years of this county’s elections in ’18, ’20, ’22, ’24. The probability of this happening is in the billions to one. Blank ballots are deliberately programmed into ES&S voting systems. When a voter feeds a ballot into a tabulator, an electronic image is created of which the votes are counted from (not from the paper ballot itself). And these Blank Ballots go into a secret, secondary electronic file inside the tabulators storage memory. Those Blank Ballots then get “adjudicated” by some other person than the voter, after the election day is over with. Read in more detail the article on it along with a patent at our website: electionwatch dot info Marathon County WI showed 87 Blank Ballots for the 2020 election – those 87 voters got screwed. Pinellas County Florida however showed over 16,000 Blank Ballots in 2020. For the 2018 election they showed 5,118 – see for yourself in the image here. Pinellas County voters you’re getting screwed. Similar large numbers of Blank Ballots were found in the three largest counties in Maryland, using ES&S voting systems. But not found in the smaller MD counties. It’s all 1’s and 0’s citizens, changeable in milliseconds…. https://x.com/PeterBernegger/status/1922671615042625675 Calif Dem Gov Newsom seeks pause on free healthcare for low-income illegal immigrants The initial plan to expand California’s free healthcare benefits to all low-income illegal immigrants ran $2.7 billion more than Gov. Newsom’s administration expected. https://justthenews.com/government/state-houses/newsom-seeks-pause-free-healthcare-low-income-illegal-immigrants Actress @PatriciaHeaton: Every time anyone tried to point out what we all saw (Biden), Jake (Tapper of CNN) belittled them. Now he’s trying to profit off his book claiming he had no idea. Shameless. https://x.com/PatriciaHeaton/status/1922411996453933303 | |
SWAMP NEWS
DHS Reportedly Requests 20,000 National Guard Troops For “Interior Immigration Enforcement”
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 03:50 PM
Democrats had no concern for due process when millions of third-world illegal aliens, including violent criminals and terrorists, invaded the U.S. with help from far-left NGOs. But now, as the Trump administration ramps up mass deportations, suddenly, this same army of left-wing lawmakers is screaming “due process” to delay deportations and clog up the courts. Their legal resistance is seen in federal courts, where remnants of the Biden-Harris regime still cling to power through far-left activist judges hell-bent on obstructing the mandate the American people handed Trump: deport criminal illegal aliens.
A new report from The New York Times, citing officials with direct knowledge of the plans, says the Department of Homeland Security has requested over 20,000 National Guard troops from the Defense Department to support the president’s mass deportation plans for criminal illegal aliens.
If approved, this would mark the first time National Guard members have been used for interior migrant enforcement operations in the U.S.
Here’s more from the NYT:
Lawyers at the Pentagon were reviewing the request with “interior immigration enforcement,” according to a Defense Department official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations. It was unclear what role state National Guard members would play and whether they would be involved in rounding up people for deportation, the official said.
The move only suggests that the Trump administration is preparing to ramp up mass deportations and fulfill the mandate the American voter gave him: restore national security through the deportation of criminal illegal aliens.
Last month, on Truth Social, Trump wrote, “I’m doing what I was elected to do, remove criminals from our Country, but the Courts don’t seem to want me to do that,” adding, “We cannot give everyone a trial, because to do so would take, without exaggeration, 200 years.”
Vice President JD Vance called the battle between the Trump administration and leftist activists federal judges a “fake legal process” that is the “ratification of Biden’s illegal migrant invasion.”
“The judicial process is for Americans. Immediate deportation is for illegal aliens,” Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller recently said.
What we’re witnessing in the federal courts from far-left judges amounts to a subversion of the popular mandate—an orchestrated campaign of lawfare that, in effect, could be viewed as a soft coup through the judiciary. When these activist judges repeatedly obstruct or delay lawful executive orders backed by a clear electoral mandate, it’s no longer about legal oversight—it’s about undermining the will of the people.
GREG HUNTER
harveyorganblog.com 
