MAY 16/ANOTHER RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS; GOLD CLOSED DOWN $38.90 TO $3184.50 WHILE SILVER WAS DOWN 24 CENTS TO $32.20//PLAITNUM WAS DOWN $4..00 TO $989.95 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $47.10 TO $959.95//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND FROM SINGAPORE NEWS//ESSENTIAL GOLD /SILVER PODCAST A MUST VIEW: LIVE FROM THE VAULT ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 223//CHINA DEVELOPS A NEW HYPERSONIC MISSILE//ISRAEL UPDATES;; HOUTHIS FIRE ANOTHER MISSILE WHICH ISRAEL KNOCKS OUT OF THE SKY AND THEN ISRAEL WHACKS YEMEN’S MAJOR PORTS/ISRAEL VS HAMAS//WEST BANK UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/NEWS ADDICTS ETC//RABOBANK REPORT ON GLOBAL ECONOMY//BIG NEWS; TRUMP TO SET TARIFFS ON ALL NATIONS IN TWO WEEKS//USA DATA RELEASES//USA ECONOMIC NEWS ON BOEING’S MAX 737 DAMAGES DUE TO THEIR BLOWUPS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 46 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 3 118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 500 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 309 323 C HSBC 75 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 6 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 7 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 23 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10 195 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 588 588 MONTH TO DATE: 23,096
MONTH TO DATE: 22,508
JPMORGAN STOPPED 334/3215
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT NOTICES FOR 588 OZ 58, oz or 1.828 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,096 contracts for 2,309,600 OR 71.838 tonnes)
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 14,466 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 72.330 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.24 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 449.193 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 411 CONTRACTS TO 137,423 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.04 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 286 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 125 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING THURSDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON THURSDAY WITH SILVER’S SMALL GAIN IN PRICE AND THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 463 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A 125 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 463 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FRIDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 286 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.04.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A HUGE 463 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.04) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH
WE HAD A 125 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ:
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 74.530 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 87.460 MILLION OZ./
WE HAD:
/ FAIR COMEX OI LOSS+// A 125 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (125 CONTRACTS)/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 463 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 130 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 DAYS, total 2883 contracts: OR 14,415 MILLION OZ (240 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 14.415 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 14.415 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 411 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.04 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 100 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 125 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND NOW MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 74.530 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 87.460 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (463 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (FRIDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1373 OI CONTRACTS TO 440,192 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1347 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1347 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $38.80 IN PRICE THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES STANDING!
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
AND NOW MAY:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD YESTERDAY’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.633 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 3.183 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.183 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 72.006 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 75.189 TONNES OF GOLD
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $38.80 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 286 OI CONTRACTS (1.430 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AS WELL AS THE SAME FOR APRIL AND NOW MAY….. A MONSTROUS 75.189 TONNES DESPITE IT BEING AN OFF MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 700 CONTRACT:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 440,192/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 137,293 CONTRACTS!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 673 CONTRACTS WITH 1373 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 700 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 673 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 581 CONTRACTS ISSUED. THIS ENDS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE T.A.S ISSUANCED AVERAGING 30,000+ FOR THIS MONTH
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (700 CONTRACT) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1373 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 673 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 75.189 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES OUR 3.987 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR MAY 13 AND 15TH ISSUANCE OF 3.183 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL 75.189 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 75.189 TONNES OF GOLD.(INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE)
.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A $38.80 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD OUR FAIR GAIN OF 2299 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (700 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 581 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 16,215 CONTRACTS OR 1,621,500 OZ OR 50.435 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1351 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 50.435 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 50.435 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 50.435 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 411 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,293 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 125 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 125 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 125 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 281 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 125 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 286 CONTRACTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.04 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.78 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.36 PTS OR 0.40%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 97.48 PTS OR 0.42%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1.79 PTS OR 0.00% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .57%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.029 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2033/ Oil UP TO 61.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MGREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2029 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2033 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED1373 CONTRACTS TO 440,192 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $38.80 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1700 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED THURSDAY NIGHT A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY REMAINS AT 3.184 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES.
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST THREE PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
MAY: 2EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 1025 CONTRACTS OR 102500 OZ OR 3.188. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!
DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 673 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUED TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. HOWEVER TODAY’S NUMBER IS SMALL AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 581 T.A.S. FOLLOWING HUGE ISSUANCES DURING OUR LAST 5 TRADING DAYS THIS WEEK. . LAST THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER BY FAR IN COMEX HISTORY WITH LAST FRIDAY’S BEING THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED!THE AVERAGE OF THE 5 ISSUANCES WAS 35,000+. NATURALLY THAT SIGNALS THAT WE WILL WITNESS CONTINUAL RAIDS AND IT CONTINUES TODAY!…
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE TODAY (THURSDAY) AT 9.978TONNES, THIS MONTH WE HAVE RECORDED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY AT 9.978 TONNES!!!
THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 75.189 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP AND 3.184 TONNES EX FOR RISK!)
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 222 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 700 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /JUNE 700 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
ZERO SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED, 581 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY:
INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.4634 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 7 (A RECORD) + ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP MAY 9 OF 0.534 TONNES + MAY 12 AT .5132 TONNES _ MAY 13; QUEUE JUMP OF 2.444 TONNES AND THEN YESTERDAY’S MAY 14 RECORD 6.8800 TONNES AND THEN TODAY’S (MAY 15) RECORD OF 9.978 PLUS 3.183 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 108,900 OZ/3.387 TONNES (MAY 16) + EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 75.189 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: STANDING NOW 72.006 TONNES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH) + 3.183 TONNES EX FOR RISK EQUALS 75.189 TONNES!!
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $38.80/ /)AND THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE NOW SUCCEEDING AS GOLD ATTEMPTED TO BREACH THAT 3400 DOLLAR BARRIER AGAIN THURSDAY TRADING. IT IS NOW TRADING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WELL BELOW TO THAT LEVEL AT $3180.00
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 2 ISSUANCES FOR 102,500 OZ. THIS TOTALS 3.183 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MONTH; FINAL GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// MAY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 2.093 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/APRIL 30. WE HAD A MONSTER 3208 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 108,900 OZ OR 3.987 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US SIMPLE MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 72.006 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD (MAY 13 AND MAY 15) EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 3.183 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 75.189 TONNES
THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 75.189 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $38.80
WE HAD A STRONG 1347 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 673 CONTRACTS OR 67,300 0Z (2.093 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
23,096 notices 2,309,600 oz 71,838 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 0 customer entry
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withdrawals:0
adjustments: 4 all dealer to customer
a) JPmorgan: 32.151 oe kilobar
b) Malca: 37,616.670 oz (1170 kilobars)
c) Manfra 137,801.588 oz
d) Stonex 2101.44 oz
removal: from customer account JPMorgan 32.15 oz (1 kilobarts)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 642 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2126 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 3215 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 1089 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE WITNESS A MONSTER 108,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP FOR 3.387 TONNES. THIS FOLLOWS YESTERDAY’S RECORD BREAKING 9.987 TONNES. FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE RECORDED 22.605 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS. ALL OF THIS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND ALL GOING TO CENTRAL BANKS.
JUNE LOST 7226 CONTRACTS TO 189,555. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH. THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS LOOKING AT JUNE OI.
JULY GAINED 392 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 3622
We had 588 contracts filed for today representing 58,800 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 588 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 198 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,096 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (642 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (588 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,315,000 OZ OR 72.006 TONNES to which we add 3.183 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk//new totals 75.189 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (23,096 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (642 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (588 x 100 oz) which equals 2,315,000 OZ OR 72.006 TONNES + 3.183 tonnes = 75.189 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 75.189 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 217.184million oz/502 oz million or 43.22%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 168.084 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 502.162Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 441 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 166 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 168 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR TODAY. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 12 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2954 CONTRACTS. JUNE OI REFUSES TO LIQUIDATE
WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE OVER 14 MILLION OZ STAND FOR JUNE/AN OFF MONTH
AS IT IS NOW THE FRONT MONTH.
JULY LOST 264 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 104,831
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 or 0.005 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 48,007poor//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,466 X5,000 oz = 72.330 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (441) AND the number of notices served upon today (1 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (14,466) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(441) minus number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 74.530 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 87.460 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 87.460 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 168.094million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 927.62 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
Our friend and colleague Jim Rickards was on Steve Bannon’s War Room show Tuesday, and it may be the most important interview Jim has done this year.
In this fascinating discussion, Jim starts with the history of the original petrodollar system. And he knows the subject well, having helped create it.
The premise of the 1974 petrodollar agreement was that Saudi Arabia would only sell oil in dollars, which would stimulate demand for greenbacks as a reserve currency.
Here’s Jim explaining the basics to Steve Bannon’s audience:
“We had a carrot and stick approach. Bill Simon, who was Secretary of the Treasury, went to the Saudis and said ‘everybody in the world needs oil, and if you price oil in dollars, then everybody needs dollars.’
And that basically underpins the role of the dollar today as the world’s reserve currency.
The stick was, if you don’t do it we’re going to invade Saudi Arabia and take over oil production.
The carrot was, if you price oil in dollars, we’ll give you a security umbrella.
It’s rare to hear such candor coming from someone who was directly involved in the formation of the petrodollar system.
Needless to say, the petrodollar system was successful and led to a resurgence in the American dollar as the world’s key reserve currency (despite Nixon ditching the gold standard just 3 years earlier).
At this point, Steve Bannon interrupted with an insightful question (paraphrased):
“Wait, you say the petrodollar system is still in place, but the Saudis are now selling oil to China for yuan. Aren’t cracks showing in the petrodollar system?”
Jim responded that yes, cracks are starting to show in the system, and that’s why Trump was in Saudi Arabia, to seal a “Petrodollar 2.0” agreement. Jim also points out that, at least for now, the amount of oil Saudi Arabia is selling for yuan and other currencies is miniscule compared to dollar-based sales.
Jim proceeds to lay out the purpose of Petrodollar 2.0:
“The U.S., by strengthening its relationship with Saudi Arabia, and creating Petrodollar 2.0, puts the pressure on China to reduce their tariffs and meet Trump’s requirements. Otherwise they don’t have a source of dollars.”
This time around, Trump is using a strictly carrot-based approach. He’s on a charm offensive and looking to build strong, lasting ties with Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East. This is a smart approach and we expect it will bear fruit in the near future.
Had President Trump taken a threatening approach to Saudi Arabia, it almost certainly would have driven the country into China’s waiting arms. And America can’t afford to let that happen.
It’s an excellent interview, and you can watch the entire thing here (free) on Rumble. Jim also gets into Russia vs. Ukraine with Steve, and brings an insightful and unique perspective as always.
Perhaps global economic ills will be put on pause for the summer. But the entire investment world will be looking for the dip to buy the best performing asset of recent months — GOLD
In a continuing consolidation, gold and silver sold off this week. In European trading hours this morning, gold was $3206, down $74 from last Friday’s close and silver at $32.25 was down only 43 cents. The gold/silver ratio is back under 100 at 99.4.
As proof that Western capital markets no longer determine gold and silver prices, declines this week have been during Far East trading hours. While trading on the Globex facility by Westerners cannot be ruled out, the fact that moves happen during Shanghai trading hours should be noted. And while SGE physical deliveries have increased (153.05 tonnes in April v. 120.16 in March) it would appear that leveraged futures in Shanghai are causing some market indigestion.
Meanwhile, attempts by the swaps on Comex to take prices meet resistance. For example, yesterday gold was hit down to $3124 before rallying to close at $3240, a $116 turnaround.
Stand-for deliveries on Comex continue apace. So far this month, we’ve seen 13,265 gold contracts stood for delivery, which is 41.2 tonnes. And 3,484 silver contracts, which represents 541.8 tonnes.
Warehouse statistics show silver stocks close to all-time highs at 501,750,232 ounces, but gold stocks have definitely peaked.
It’s difficult to assess at this point whether the consolidation in gold and silver prices has further to go. The technical chart suggests that gold would look healthier if the long-term moving average was allowed to catch up with the price:
Gold has found support consistently at the 55-day moving average, but it is still far above the 1-year MA currently at 2,701 but rising strongly. Technical analysts would argue that a dip to $3000 over the summer would probably find firm support while allowing the 1-year MA to catch up. However, the outcome is likely to be driven by currency and economic events.
Technically, silver looks more promising, being less extended in its bull market:
This chart is just looking for an excuse to go much higher. So, what are the economic developments likely to cause silver to outperform gold?
Perhaps the clue is to be found in President Trump being increasingly sidelined with respect to tariffs. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary reassured capital markets by negotiating more reasonable tariffs with China, if only for 90 days. That takes us into August, during which time a longer-term agreement might be negotiated.
In other words, it is a case of wait and see, likely to be reflected in the dollar/gold exchange rate. With this pause probably comes a deferment of recessionary fears, which would justify silver’s stronger technicals.
That said, the investment world has been alerted to the prospects for gold. And while equities could continue to rally — depending on bond markets — severely underweight investors will be looking to buy into gold’s dip. Surely, they will be praying for a pullback to $3000…
A stronger technical base would support a move to the $4000 level, being touted by some of the large banks — JPMorgan sees that by Q2 2026. But there are some signs that bond yields are increasing. The 40-year JGB is particularly striking:
So is the long end of the UK gilt market
Others, such as German bunds and US Treasuries show similar patterns, which analysts are ignoring. But they are the sown-seeds of the next credit crisis, crashing equities and likely fiat currencies with them.
other major gold stories:
Singapore news
Kiss of death to NY and London
Singapore’s Abaxx Exchange to launch new gold contract
SINGAPORE-based startup Abaxx Exchange is launching a new physical gold contract next month, seeking to challenge London and New York’s grip on the global bullion market following gold’s record price rally this year, said the Financial Times on Tuesday.
The bourse, which has secured over £77m from investors including BlackRock and CBOE Global Markets, will offer a physical one kilogram gold contract denominated in US dollars and deliverable in Singapore, the paper said.
Abaxx CEO Josh Crumb described the current gold market structure as “dysfunctional”, arguing that infrastructure hasn’t kept pace with trading practices. “Our view is that Asia ex-China needs a gold market, to manage physical gold, that is not reliant on New York and London,” said Crumb, citing “geopolitical” risks in these traditional centres.
The contract will be Singapore’s only physical gold futures offering, potentially meeting regional demand from jewellery manufacturers and investors, said the Financial Times. “In Singapore, people feel like they are not well served by the existing market,” Crumb said. “The actual real physical demand is kilo bars going into Asia.”
Albert Cheng, head of the Singapore Bullion Market Association, commented: “We have the potential to compete with London, but we need the infrastructure to bring in more flows.”
Abaxx eventually aims to offer 24/7 trading, pending regulatory approval. The company, majority-owned by Toronto-listed Abaxx Technologies (market cap £180m), expects to reach break-even during 2026.
Former Goldman Sachs commodities research head Jeff Currie, an Abaxx board member, told the newspaper the gold contract will gain traction quickly: “It’s going to be the most versatile contract out there.”
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4/On LFTV, Andrew Maguire LIVE FROM THE VAULT 223
B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//COPPER
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.36 PTS OR 0.40%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 97.48 PTS OR 0.42%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1.79 PTS OR 0.00% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .57%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.029 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2033/ Oil UP TO 61.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MGREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2029 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2033 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2029 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2033 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.36 PTS OR 0.40%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 97.48 PTS OR 0.42%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1.79 PTS OR 0.00%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.56// EURO RISES TO 1.1202 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.452//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 145.27…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5844/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.589 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.202%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.362
3j Gold at $3205.80 Silver at: 32.27 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 54 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.54
3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 145.27// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.452% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8347 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9357 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.411 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.878 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.945 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.82
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.664 DOWN 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.146 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.747 DOWN 10 PTS
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2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures Rise For Fifth Day In A Row As S&P 6000 Looms
by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 08:23 AM
US stock futures are set for a fifth straight session in the green, as US equity funds benefited from their first inflows since the Liberation Day shock, and with 6000 in the S&P now less than a 100 points away. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% after the index closed up 4.5% for the week on Thursday as the latest economic data spurred speculation the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. Nasdaq futures gained 0.4% with Mag 7 leading (TSLA (+1.1%), GOOGL (+0.9%), and NVDA (+0.7%) are outperforming). The powerful rally this week has pushed the tech-heavy equity benchmark into overbought territory, while the S&P closed Thursday at the highest level since February. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gauge also gained, heading for a fifth weekly advance. The dollar weakened for a second session against major peers, while the yen and Swiss franc gained, and the 10-year Treasury yield was lower after declining 10 basis points Thursday as traders priced in more Fed cuts: bond yields are lower, with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields down by 3.09bp, 3.7bp, 3.5bp, and 2.6bp respectively. Commodities are mostly lower, led by gold while oil reversed earlier losses. Overnight headlines were largely quiet. Today, we will receive University of Michigan Sentiment survey data, where consensus expects a modest bounce (to 53.5 vs. 52.2 prior).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher with the exception of Meta after an equal-weighted gauge of the group fell over 1% on Thursday (Alphabet +1.5%, Tesla +1.1%, Nvidia +0.9%, Amazon +0.4%, Microsoft little changed, Apple +0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%). Charter Communications (CHTR) gains 9.4% after agreeing to merge with Cox Communications in a deal that values Cox at an enterprise value of about $34.5 billion. Vistra (VST) is up 5.1% after it said it executed a definitive agreement to acquire seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Archer Aviation (ACHR) shares rise 5.7%, adding to gains from Thursday following its announcement that the electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft company had been selected as the ‘Official Air Taxi Provider’ for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Doximity (DOCS) drops 18% after the healthcare-software company’s full-year forecast disappointed, with analysts pointing to a cautious tone from the management team on the call regarding the outlook for market growth.
Globant (GLOB) shares sink 28% after the technology services provider cut full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to a level that undershot analysts’ expectations.
Pentair (PNR) shares rise 2.2% after JPMorgan upgrades the water-treatment company to overweight from neutral on expectations of potential guidance upside.
Quantum Computing (QUBT) shares are up 9.7% after the quantum optics technology company reported its first-quarter results.
Rocket Cos. (RKT) gains 4.4% after ValueAct Capital Management LLC reported a 9.9% holding in the mortgage finance company, according to a new 13D filing with the US Securities & Exchange Commission.
Take-Two (TTWO) falls 2% as the video-game publisher’s full-year forecast for revenue came up short.
Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) shares drop 17% after the biotech’s application for its kidney disease treatment Filspari (sparsentan) failed to get priority review status from the US FDA and is set to face an advisory panel.
One month after the nevertrump media hyperventilated about the “US exceptionalism” trade dying, US equities are back in favor following the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China. Stocks are now trading like last month’s rout never happened, even though uncertainty remains about the effect of tariffs on the US economy and the direction that the global trade war will take in the coming months. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said weekly US equity inflows resumed at $19.8 billion for the first time since Liberation Day. Meanwhile, stocks haven’t been getting rewarded for earnings beats: firms that topped expectations in the first quarter reports saw their share prices rise by less than usual, according to JPMorgan strategists. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he expects the US economy to slow this year but not fall into recession.
“For now, we believe that the path of least resistance is still higher for risky assets,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist at Jefferies International. “We would start turning a bit more cautious around June/July when we expect the hard data start weakening.”
Thursday afternoon brought a deluge of 13F filings, which showed hedge funds adding healthcare exposure and cutting tech over the first three months of the year. Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management liquidated almost its entire listed equity portfolio in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its holdings of financials stocks.
Traders are also watching negotiations around the US budget with its promise of large tax cuts and the potential impact that will have on the fiscal deficit.
Elsewhere, Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in a year as the surging yen crushed exports, illustrating its vulnerability even before sustaining the impact of Trump’s tariff measures. Paradoxically, the yen gained 0.2% on Friday to trade around 145 per dollar even as Bank of Japan official Toyoaki Nakamura, the most dovish board member, warned against hurrying to raise the benchmark interest rate.
Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gauge also gained, heading for a fifth weekly advance as cooling global trade tensions improve investor sentiment and corporate earnings season comes in better than expected. Health care and food and beverage sectors outperform. Among single stocks Richemont rises after reporting a rise in full year sales. Here are the most notable European movers:
Richemont shares rise as much as 5.5% after the Swiss firm’s jewelry division saw strong growth thanks to demand for its high-end Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels brands.
Orsted shares rise as much as 2.1%, snapping three days of declines, after UBS analysts say the stock is pricing in a “close to worst case” scenario when it comes to a potential halt order on the Danish company’s two US offshore projects.
1&1 shares soar after its parent United Internet submitted a partial offer to acquire as much as 9.19% of 1&1 shares, for a cash consideration of €18.5 apiece.
Tate & Lyle shares gain as much as 3.1%, among the best performers in the Stoxx 600’s food, beverage and tobacco subgroup, after Citi upgrades the stock to buy from neutral, saying the risk/reward “looks attractive.”
CVC Capital shares climb as much as 5.4%, to the highest in six weeks, after Morgan Stanley upgrades its recommendation on the alternative investment manager to overweight, seeing scope for recovery after recent underperformance.
Nibe falls as much as 4.1% after Handelsbanken cut its recommendation on the Swedish heat-pump manufacturer to sell from hold, quoting recent strong share performance.
Eutelsat shares drop as much as 11% after the satellite operator said on earnings call that it’s “far too early” to discuss the European Union’s revenue commitment to its next-generation low-earth orbit satellites, dampening hope of enhanced government support in the near term.
Rubis shares fall as much as 3.7% after the French energy solutions firm said Nils Christian Bergene will step down as chairman and a member of the supervisory board, a departure that CIC analysts called a surprise.
Workspace Group shares fall as much as 11% after the landlord to mostly small- and medium-sized London businesses warned rising vacancies in its portfolio will dent profits.
Future shares decline as much as 9.2% after the UK specialist publisher said its FY25 organic revenue will face a low-single-digit decline, below estimates.
Tokmanni falls as much as 14%, the most since last July, after the Finnish retail group missed expectations in its first-quarter report.
Dino Polska drops as much as 7.5%, most since August, as Poland’s food retailer reported slowing like-for-like sales in 1Q, raising concerns about its business model and triggering profit taking after 42% rally YTD.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range as the rally sparked by US-China trade talks continued to cool and earnings from Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba underwhelmed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a gain of as much as 0.3% and loss of 0.2%. NetEase was the biggest contributor to the gains, after the China-based video-game company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. Meanwhile, Alibaba was among the major drags, after its quarterly revenue missed estimates and cloud business disappointed. Key indexes dropped in mainland China, Hong Kong and India, while benchmarks rose in Australia and Taiwan. Goldman Sachs strategists raised their 3-month and 12-month targets for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index to 610 and 660, respectively, from 570 and 620, expecting “moderately higher” returns for the region thanks to improved earnings growth amid a better-than-expected outcome to US-China trade talks.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.2%, declining for the second straight day; it is on track to end the week 0.1% higher; the yen and Swiss franc among the beneficiaries.
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was lower after declining 10 basis points Thursday as traders added bets on Fed rate cuts; treasuries are richer across the curve with futures adding to Thursday’s gains and 10-year yields dropping back to 4.405% and near 100-DMA. US yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve with spreads broadly within a basis point of Thursday close; in the 10-year sector bunds and gilts outperform Treasuries by 2.5bp and 1.5bp so far on the day.
In commodities, gold fell to extend its weekly loss as demand for haven assets waned. Oil prices declined after Iran’s foreign minister cast doubts on the status of US-Iran nuclear talks.
Looking at today’s US data calendar, key events includes April housing starts/building permits, import/export price index, May New York services business activity (8:30am), University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and March TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Daly at 9:40pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.3%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
DAX +0.7%, CAC 40 +0.6%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.4%
VIX -0.2 points at 17.66
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1228.52
euro +0.2% at $1.1208
WTI crude -0.3% at $61.45/barrel
Top Overnight News
Donald Trump said he’d set tariff rates for US trading partners “over the next two to three weeks.” BBG
US Deputy Treasury Secretary Faulkender said he is not concerned about persistent increases in prices, while he added that inflation will return to target levels and they are setting the foundation for the US economy to take off in H2.
The Trump administration plans to put a number of Chinese chipmaking companies (including memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory) on an export blacklist, but some officials want to delay the move to avoid hurting efforts to strike a long-term trade agreement with China. FT
Hopes faded for Russia-Ukraine talks set to take place today in Istanbul. The focus now shifts to when Trump may meet Vladimir Putin.
US President Trump says deals from his trip are worth USD 12-13tln, includes deals already announced and some that will be outlined “very shortly”. Will be sending out letters to nations for trade deals soon.
China approves 10 nuclear reactors, putting the country on pace to surpass the US in nuclear power capacity by 2030. Nikkei
NVDA is seeing to build a research and development center in Shanghai that would help the world’s leading maker of AI processors stay competitive in China, where its sales have slumped due to tightening US export controls. FT
Japan’s Q1 GDP falls short of expectations, dropping 0.7% on an annualized basis vs. the consensus forecast of -0.3%, with the shortfall driven by weak consumption and higher imports. Nikkei
Japan has signaled it is prepared to hold out for a better deal with the US over trade tariffs, pushing for full removal of his 25% duty on imports of Japanese cars rather than risk a domestic political backlash. FT
The Fed’s Raphael Bostic said in a May 14 interview that he expects the US economy to slow this year but not fall into recession, and reiterated that he sees one rate cut in 2025. BBG
The cost to ship a container of Chinese-made goods to the U.S. is jumping as importers race to pull cargo across the Pacific during a 3 month trade war truce. Freight rates from China to the US west coast have risen about 8% this week as bookings have boomed. Importers rushing to ship Chinese goods to the US during a short reprieve from higher tariffs may boost freighters. The surprise truce is seen causing a surge in transpacific shipping, Bloomberg Intelligence said. BBG, WSJ
BofA card spending, week to May 10th: -1.3% (1.0% April average), spending has seen a recovery from the Easter slowdown.
Tariffs/Trade
US President Trump’s administration is reportedly split on adding Chinese chip makers to export blacklists as some US officials fear the move could jeopardise trade talks with Beijing, while the Commerce Department has compiled a list of Chinese companies including memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory to add to the ‘entity list’ although the timing of the move has been complicated by the recent agreement by China and the US to cut tariffs, according to sources cited by the FT.
US told Vietnam its trade deficit is unsustainable and a major concern amid tariff talks, according to Vietnam state media.
Mexican President Sheinbaum spoke with Canadian PM Carney regarding the importance of USMCA in strengthening the competitiveness of the three North American countries, while they also discussed the continuity and strengthening of the seasonal agricultural worker program.
Greenland’s Foreign Minister has suggested that she wants to deepen bilateral ties with the EU, highlighting Greenland’s mineral resources as an area for collaboration, via Politico.
Japan has reportedly indicated that it is prepared to hold out for a better deal with the US, pushing for the full removal of the 25% duty on car imports, via FT.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed after the recent soft US data releases spurred Fed rate cut bets, while participants also digested weak data from Japan and earnings reports. ASX 200 was led by strength in miners and outperformance of gold producers after the recent rally in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 initially retreated amid recent currency strength and after GDP data for Q1 showed a steeper-than-expected contraction in Japan’s economy, although the index gradually recovered and returned to flat territory as USD/JPY regained some composure and with the weak data effectively narrowing the scope for the BoJ to resume normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with sentiment dampened by earnings releases after Alibaba’s results underwhelmed which pressured its Chinese blue-chip tech and ecommerce peers such as Tencent, Meituan and JD.com.
Top Asian News
BoJ Board Member Nakamura said Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, but some weakness has been seen, while he added the economy is facing mounting downward pressure due to the implementation of US tariff policies. Nakamura said the momentum for wage hikes has accelerated but could weaken depending on impact of US tariff policies and noted that it is appropriate to keep monetary policy steady for the time being. Furthermore, he said uncertainty over the economic outlook is heightening, so a cautious monetary policy approach is necessary and hiking rates prematurely when growth is slowing could curb consumption and capex.
Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa said improvements in job and income conditions are likely to underpin moderate economic recovery, while he added must be mindful downside risk to the economy from US trade policy and the hit to consumption and household sentiment from sustained price rises also becoming a downside risk to Japan’s economy.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened modestly firmer across the board, and have traded with an upward bias this morning. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a handful of industries in negative territory. Healthcare takes the top spot, with gains in the sector seemingly broad based. In terms of stock specific stories, Sanofi (+2.2%) gains after it received FDA orphan designation for treating sickle cell disease. Bayer (+3.5%) benefits from an FT report which suggested it is seeking a Roundup settlement.
Top European News
ECB’s Villeroy says “we are not currently in a currency wars situation but rather a trade war situation”.
ECB’s Kazaks says a meeting by meeting approach at the ECB is right and notes a lot of uncertainty around trade measures, according to CNBC.
FX
Dollar is on the backfoot, continuing the pressure seen following Thursday’s disappointing Retail Sales and softer-than-expected PPI data. As a reminder, this led money markets to fully price in two Fed cuts by year-end; currently pricing in roughly 57bps. DXY currently sits in a 100.52-78 range. Further downside for the index will see a potential test of the week’s trough at 100.27 – should that be taken out, 100.00 will be next in focus. Ahead, US Import Prices, UoM Survey and commentary from Fed’s Barkin.
EUR is modestly firmer vs the Dollar, with specific for the Bloc very light today – Final Italian inflation metrics were revised marginally lower but ultimately had little impact on the Single-Currency. Commentary via ECB’s Kazaks and Villeroy this morning has not added too much to the agenda; the former reiterated the need for a meeting-by-meeting approach and highlighted the uncertainty around trade. This morning EUR has climbed back above the 1.12 mark and has traded in a busy 1.1182-1.1219 range.
JPY is slightly firmer vs the Dollar after choppy price action overnight, which saw USD/JPY initially trickle lower amid initial haven flows into the yen and recent declines in US yields, but later bounced off support at the 145.00 level. USD/JPY was little moved following weaker-than-expected GDP data. USD/JPY currently trading around 145.30 in a 144.93-145.68 range
GBP is flat/incrementally firmer vs the Dollar and holds just above the 1.33 mark, in a very thin 1.3300-1.3320 range. UK-specific updates have been lacking today. Some focus has been on an FT article which suggested that EU leaders are urging UK PM Starmer to improve the region’s mobility deal – particularly for EU students.
Antipodeans are the best performers vs the Dollar, nursing some of the losses seen in the prior session. The Kiwi is the best G10 performer today; overnight, New Zealand 1yr and 2yr inflation expectations are both seen higher, which may explain some of the outperformance in today’s session. Do note that the NZD is outmuscling the AUD in the AUD/NZD cross; some traders may be focused on next week’s RBA meeting, where markets widely expect the Bank to deliver a 25bps cut.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1938 vs exp. 7.2085 (Prev. 7.1963).
Fixed Income
Firmer start to the day as USTs continue the data-induced upside from Thursday with newsflow since a little light and markets largely awaiting updates on numerous geopolitical situations. At the top-end of a 110-10 to 110-20 band. As it stands, on track to end the week almost flat, opened the week at 110-18, despite the marked pressure seen in the first half on US-China progress. Trade developments that sparked notable hawkish action Monday through Wednesday, before being offset by Thursday’s data deluge. Ahead, the docket is comparably light but does feature Building Permits/Housing Starts, Import Prices (factor into PCE) and the prelim. Uni. of Michigan series for May.
Bunds are in-fitting with USTs, but with action slightly more pronounced as EGBs experienced a marginal rally early doors as European players entered the fray and reacted to the bullish bias of APAC trade. Specifics light. A few ECB officials on the wire but nothing that has fundamentally shifted the narrative. Bunds just off highs in a 130.11-50 confine and, as with USTs, near-enough on track to end the week flat despite a WTD range in excess of 135 ticks.
Gilts are outperforming slightly, likely on account of the marginal underperformance vs Bunds seen at points this week and as such, the UK is catching up on the final session of the week. As above, Gilts are also set to end the week essentially unchanged, currently just off highs in a 91.84-92.00 band. Resistance at 92.59 from mid-April and thereafter 93.00 before highs from the last few weeks, beginning at 93.59.
Commodities
A hesitant start for WTI and Brent as geopolitics dominates ahead of the weekend. WTI and Brent traded largely flat through the morning but are currently down by around USD 0.10/bbl, nearing overnight lows.
In terms of Iran-related headlines, crude prices whipsawed on conflicting media reports yesterday and mixed signals from US and Iranian officials. This morning, Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that negotiations will continue as long as the other party remains engaged, maintaining that no formal proposal from the US has been received.
On Russia-Ukraine, talks are underway in Istanbul, with the Trilateral meeting between Turkey-US-Ukraine supposedly concluded. We are yet to hear the readout from it. Ahead, there will be another trilateral meeting, this time with Russia taking the place of the US.
Spot gold is continuing losses, pulling back from yesterday’s gains after soft data, lower yields and Fed rate cut bets aided the yellow metal. At the time of writing, the yellow metal trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,205.49-3,252.17/oz range.
Base metals are softer after the subdued mood in its largest buyer, China, overshadows the positive sentiment in Europe this morning. 3M LME Copper currently rests within, but at the lower-end of, a USD 9,474.9-9,591.42/t range.
ADNOC Chief says the UAE and the US plan investment of USD 440bln in the energy sector through 2035.
Geopolitics
US President Trump says he is willing to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin as soon as arrangements can be made; going to take care of Gaza; will make good progress on geopolitical situations in the next two or three weeks In one way or another, will take care of Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister says the nation’s position is clear and we are ready to build confidence and adopt transparency in our Nuclear Programme in exchange for the lift of sanctions. Not received any agreement proposal from the US; is possible will be informed via a meditator
Hamas is reportedly holding direct negotiations with the US Administration, according to a senior Hamas official cited by Al Arabiya.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Apr Housing Starts, est. 1363.5k, prior 1324k
8:30 am: Apr P Building Permits, est. 1450k, prior 1467k
8:30 am: Apr Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.1%
10:00 am: May P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 53.5, prior 52.2
4:00 pm: Mar Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 112b
4:00 pm: Mar Total Net TIC Flows, prior 284.7b
Central Banks
May 16: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Speech
May 17: Fed’s Daly Gives Commencement Address
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets continued to advance over the last 24 hours, as weak US inflation data and lower oil prices raised expectations that the Fed would still cut rates this year. By the close, that meant the S&P 500 (+0.41%) had posted a 4th consecutive gain, which now brings its advance since the April low to +18.75%. In fact, the index isn’t far away from a +20% gain that would mark the technical definition of a bull market, and futures this morning are pointing to another modest gain. So it’s been an astonishing turnaround from where we were just over a month ago at the height of the tariff uncertainty.
There were several factors driving the rally, but a critically important one was the US PPI data for April. It showed inflation pressures were much softer than expected, with headline PPI down -0.5% on the month (vs. +0.2% expected). So that marked the biggest monthly decline in producer prices since April 2020 and the Covid lockdowns, and it pushed the year-on-year reading down to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected). Core PPI was also softer than expected, with the measure excluding food energy and trade down -0.1% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), which was the first negative print since April 2020. It also helped broader inflation expectations to move lower, and the US 10yr inflation swap fell -4.7bps on the day to 2.50%, marking its biggest decline in over a month.
With investors feeling less concerned about inflation, they then dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts in response. For instance, the amount priced in by December up +7.1bps on the day to 56bps. And in turn, that contributed to a large rally in Treasury yields across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-9.0bps) falling back to 3.96%, whilst the 10yr yield (-10.5bps) fell to 4.43%.
Those moves got further momentum from the latest decline in oil prices, which added to the sense that inflationary pressures were easing. The move followed comments from President Trump, who said “I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal” with Iran. Moreover, Trump posted an NBC news story citing a top Iranian official that Iran would sign a nuclear deal in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. So the newsflow led to growing expectations that oil supply could rise, and Brent crude fell another -2.36% on the day to $64.53/bbl.
The fall in yields came despite comments from Fed Chair Powell yesterday, who indicated that the Fed were reconsidering the language on average inflation targeting in their latest review. For reference, in 2020 they changed their approach to permit a period of inflation above the 2% target, if it followed a period of inflation running beneath target, so that was a significant shift. However, the potential to move back off that again was seen in a hawkish light, as it implied less tolerance for higher inflation in the future, and Treasury yields briefly spiked as the headlines came through.
Nevertheless, the Powell comments weren’t enough to counteract the broader rally, and there was also relief yesterday that the US data continued to point away from a recession. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims remained at 229k over the week ending May 10 (vs. 228k expected), so still in their recent range and not signalling a sharper deterioration. In the meantime, the retail sales data showed modest growth of +0.1% in April (vs. unch expected), which was a slowdown from March, but still not the contractionary territory that might be expected in an outright recession. And with the latest data in hand, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 moved up to an annualised +2.5% pace.
That environment proved to be a strong one for equities on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 up +0.41% on the day. The advance was reasonably broad-based, with 75% of the index moving higher. Defensive sectors outperformed, with utilities (+2.12%) and consumer staples (+2.00%) leading the gains for the S&P 500. By contrast, the Magnificent 7 (-1.09%) ended a run of 5 consecutive gains. Within the Mag-7, Meta fell -2.35% following a WSJ report that it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model. In terms of other individual moves, Walmart (-0.50%) lost ground after their earnings, and they warned that prices would go up as a result of the tariffs. And Cisco Systems gained +4.85% following their own earnings after the previous day’s close.
Earlier in Europe, bond markets had also rallied on hopes for weaker inflation, and yields on 10yr bunds (-7.7bps), OATs (-8.5bps) and gilts (-5.2bps) all moved lower. There were similar gains for equities, with the STOXX 600 (+0.56%) closing at a 7-week high, alongside a fresh record for the DAX (+0.72%). That positivity was reinforced by strong UK GDP numbers, with Q1 growth running at a quarterly +0.7% pace (vs. +0.6% expected), and the FTSE 100 (+0.57%) closed above its Liberation Day level for the first time.
Overnight in Asia however, the tone has generally been more negative, with several of the major indices losing ground. Sentiment hasn’t been helped by Japan’s Q1 GDP reading, which showed a larger-than-expected contraction, with the economy shrinking at an annualised -0.7% pace in Q1 (vs. -0.3% expected). So that raised fears about how resilient the economy was, particularly given those numbers were before the Liberation Day announcement in April. Against that backdrop, Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.28%, and elsewhere there’ve been losses for the Hang Seng (-0.76%), the CSI 300 (-0.57%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.52%). That said, there have been some gains, including South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.19%), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.57%).
Looking forward, the planned US budget reconciliation bill will remain in focus today. Politico reported yesterday evening that today’s planned procedural vote in the House Budget Committee may be in peril due to opposition from fiscally hawkish Republicans to the CBO’s scoring of the bill, and proposed delays to Medicaid cuts. Yesterday our US economists published a report (see here) analysing the details of the tax bill released this week, which they see putting the US on course for a 6.5% of GDP fiscal deficit in the coming years.
In geopolitics, it’s also worth keeping an eye on today’s talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul. These mark the first direct talks since spring 2022, but with Moscow sending a relatively low-level delegation, no immediate progress is expected. Trump claimed yesterday that “nothing’s going to happen” in terms of resolving the war in Ukraine until he and Putin meet.
To the rest of the day ahead, data releases include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May, along with April’s building permits, housing starts, and the import and export price indices. In the Euro Area, we’ll get the March trade balance. And from central banks, speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, the ECB’s Lane, and the BOE’s Lombardelli.
2b) European opening report
2c) Asian opening report
EU & US futures flat with catalysts sparse; fixed benchmarks extend onto gains and DXY lower after data – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 01:37 AM
Mixed APAC trade, US futures range bound while European futures point to a marginally firmer open.
DXY remains lower after Thursday’s data, EUR/USD marginally reclaimed 1.12, USD/JPY found support at 145.00.
Fixed benchmarks extended/held on to recent gains.
Crude benchmarks remain underpinned by the latest on US-Iran, metals marginally softer.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices, UoM Sentiment Survey, BoC SLOS, Speakers including ECB’s Lane, Cipollone & Fed’s Barkin.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mostly in the green after clawing back early losses, as participants reflected on a slew of data releases stateside including disappointing Retail Sales and softer-than-expected PPI data, which pressured yields and saw money markets return to fully pricing in two Fed rate cuts by year-end. Nonetheless, the other data releases were mixed as Initial Jobless Claims matched estimates and both Philly Fed and NY Fed surveys topped forecasts but remained in negative territory, while the major indices were predominantly higher aside from the Nasdaq as all Mag 7 names declined including Meta (META) which was further pressured in late trade as WSJ reported it had delayed the rollout of its flagship AI model, Behemoth.
SPX +0.41% at 5,917, NDX +0.08% at 21,336, DJI +0.65% at 42,323, RUT +0.52% at 2,095.
US President Trump’s administration is reportedly split on adding Chinese chip makers to export blacklists as some US officials fear the move could jeopardise trade talks with Beijing, while the Commerce Department has compiled a list of Chinese companies including memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory to add to the ‘entity list’ although the timing of the move has ben complicated by the recent agreement by China and the US to cut tariffs, according to sources cited by the FT.
US President Trump’s administration targets Europe’s digital laws as a threat to basic rights and US business, according to WSJ. It was separately reported that the Trump administration told the EU it wants to discuss EU’s agricultural food tariffs and non-tariff barriers in trade talks, while the US also wants to address economic security which is a term often used to refer to concerns about China’s economic dominance in certain sectors and supply chains, alongside digital issues.
US told Vietnam its trade deficit is unsustainable and a major concern amid tariff talks, according to Vietnam state media.
Mexican President Sheinbaum spoke with Canadian PM Carney regarding the importance of USMCA in strengthening the competitiveness of the three North American countries, while they also discussed the continuity and strengthening of the seasonal agricultural worker program.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed’s Barr (Vice Chair Supervision) said the US economy is on a solid footing with inflation heading to 2% although trade policies have clouded the outlook while he added the trade shock could be particularly hard on small businesses and trigger price increase if supply chains are affected or firms fail.
US Deputy Treasury Secretary Faulkender said he is not concerned about persistent increases in prices, while he added that inflation will return to target levels and they are setting the foundation for the US economy to take off in H2.
US House Budget Committee Chair Arrington may have enough ‘No’ votes to delay the tax/budget bill markup scheduled this Friday, according to Punchbowl.
US House Speaker Johnson said they are very close to a SALT deal and remain on the path to pass the tax bill next week.
Qatar wealth fund plans to invest USD 500bln in the US over the next 10 years, according to Bloomberg.
Meta Platforms (META) is delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model, prompting internal concerns about the direction of its multibillion-dollar AI investments, according to WSJ.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed after the recent soft US data releases spurred Fed rate cut bets, while participants also digested weak data from Japan and earnings reports.
ASX 200 was led by strength in miners and outperformance of gold producers after the recent rally in the precious metal.
Nikkei 225 initially retreated amid recent currency strength and after GDP data for Q1 showed a steeper-than-expected contraction in Japan’s economy, although the index gradually recovered and returned to flat territory as USD/JPY regained some composure and with the weak data effectively narrowing the scope for the BoJ to resume normalisation.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with sentiment dampened by earnings releases after Alibaba’s results underwhelmed which pressured its Chinese blue-chip tech and ecommerce peers such as Tencent, Meituan and JD.com.
US equity futures lacked direction and took a breather after ultimately climbing yesterday on Fed rate cut hopes.
European equity futures indicate a slightly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Thursday.
FX
DXY remained softer in the aftermath of the recent slew of data releases from the US including disappointing Retail Sales and softer-than-expected PPI data, which saw money markets revert to fully pricing two Fed rate cuts by year-end, while the latest comments from Fed officials including Powell provided very little to shift the dial.
EUR/USD eked slight gains and tested the 1.1200 level but with the upside limited following the recent oscillations.
GBP/USD remained afloat at the 1.3300 handle following the prior day’s somewhat choppy mood as the underperformance in cyclical peers offset the data-related tailwinds.
USD/JPY initially trickled lower amid initial haven flows into the yen and recent declines in US yields, but later bounced off support at the 145.00 level.
Antipodeans nursed some of the losses from yesterday’s underperformance but with the recovery limited by the mixed sentiment.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1938 vs exp. 7.2085 (Prev. 7.1963).
Mexican Interest Rate (May) 8.5% vs. Exp. 8.5% (Prev. 9.0%) with the decision unanimous, while it estimates that it could continue calibrating the monetary policy stance and consider adjusting it in similar magnitudes.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures extended on advances after catching a bid on the soft US PPI and downbeat Retail Sales data.
Bund futures held on to the recent spoils following a resurgence to back above the 130.00 level.
10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in global peers with participants digesting weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP data.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures struggled for direction after yesterday’s two-way price action in which oil initially retreated on optimistic geopolitical-related commentary including from US President Trump who suggested the US was close to a nuclear deal with Iran. However, prices gradually rebounded off lows after comments from the Iranian side cast some doubts, as an official noted that they have not received any fresh US proposal to resolve outstanding issues in the nuclear dispute.
Spot gold pulled back after the prior day’s rally which was facilitated by soft data, lower yields and Fed rate cut bets.
Copper futures mildly declined alongside the mixed risk appetite in the region and subdued mood in its largest buyer, China.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin lacked conviction with price action choppy overnight on both sides of the USD 104,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Board Member Nakamura said Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, but some weakness has been seen, while he added the economy is facing mounting downward pressure due to the implementation of US tariff policies. Nakamura said the momentum for wage hikes has accelerated but could weaken depending on impact of US tariff policies and noted that it is appropriate to keep monetary policy steady for the time being. Furthermore, he said uncertainty over the economic outlook is heightening, so a cautious monetary policy approach is necessary and hiking rates prematurely when growth is slowing could curb consumption and capex.
Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa said improvements in job and income conditions are likely to underpin moderate economic recovery, while he added must be mindful downside risk to the economy from US trade policy and the hit to consumption and household sentiment from sustained price rises also becoming a downside risk to Japan’s economy.
DATA RECAP
Japanese GDP QQ (Q1) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%)
Japanese GDP QQ Annualised (Q1) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. 2.4%)
New Zealand 1yr Inflation Expectation (Q2) 2.4% (Prev. 2.2%)
New Zealand 2yr Inflation Expectation (Q2) 2.3% (Prev. 2.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli military said aerial defence systems were activated to intercept a missile launched from Yemen.
There is concern in Israel over an emerging nuclear agreement between Iran and the US, while Israel’s position is that Iran should not have enrichment abilities even for civilian use. Furthermore, there has been progress in the talks but no one knows for sure if it will end in an agreement, according to sources cited by The Jerusalem Post.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Turkish Foreign Minister and US Secretary of State Rubio agreed during their meeting in Turkey that efforts for direct Ukraine-Russia talks would continue, according to Reuters citing a Turkish diplomatic source.
OTHER
Pakistan’s PM said they want to give the message to India that they are ready to talk about peace.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
EU leaders urged UK PM Starmer to improve mobility deal in last-ditch ‘reset’ talks, according to FT.
World Economic Forum reportedly chasing ECB President Lagarde as its next leader after the WEF founder’s abrupt exit, according to Bloomberg.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
Robert H
“Mach 20 Strike in 30 Minutes”: China’s Hypersonic Weapon Shatters Global Defenses with Terrifying Precision and Speed – Sustainability Time
Both Russia and China are way ahead in this technology
Missile fragments that fell in the settlement of Alon Shvut in the West Bank, May 15, 2025. (credit: Via Maariv)
This comes amid US President Donald Trump‘s visit to the Middle East, where he announced several deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. At the time of the sirens, Trump was in the United Arab Emirates.
Trump’s deal with the Houthis
In early May, Trump announced that the US would stop attacking the Houthis, saying that the group had agreed to stop interrupting important shipping lanes in the Middle East.
After Trump made the announcement, Oman said it had mediated the deal.
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL HOUTHIS/FRIDAY
IDF strikes three Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen
“As we said: If the Houthis continue to fire missiles toward the State of Israel, they will suffer painful blows,” Katz said following the strikes.
The IDF is striking the Hodeidah and Al-Salif ports in Yemen after the Houthis continued launching missiles at Israel, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post on Friday, following reports in Sky News in Arabic.
The military said that these ports are used for transferringweapons and are “another example of the cynical use and exploitation of civilian infrastructure by the Houthi terrorist regime to advance terrorism.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the military “severely damaged” the ports it attacked in Yemen on X/Twitter shortly after the strikes.
“As we said: If the Houthis continue to fire missiles toward the State of Israel, they will suffer painful blows — and we will also target terror leaders as we have done with Deif and Sinwar in Gaza, Nasrallah in Beirut, and Haniyeh in Tehran. We will hunt down and eliminate Abd al-Malik al-Houthi in Yemen as well.”
“We will defend ourselves by our own strength against any enemy,” Katz concluded.
The IDF said it conducted the strikes after numerous prior warnings. “Given the Houthis’ use of these ports for terrorist purposes, the IDF again warns anyone present at the ports to evacuate and stay clear of the area,” the IDF added.
Footage captures the moment Israeli airstrikes struck Hodeidah port in western Yemen, escalating regional tensions. pic.twitter.com/TwJZfCZ3It
“The IDF is determined to continue operating and striking forcefully against anyone who poses a threat to the residents of the State of Israel, at any distance necessary,” the military concluded.
Israel is allegedly seeking to impose a naval blockade on the Houthis, Sky News in Arabic reported, citing an Israeli source.
A man and children join protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, in a rally in solidarity with Palestinians, in Sanaa, Yemen May 9, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Adel Al Khader TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Not the first time the IAF struck at the Yemeni ports
The Israeli air force reportedly conducted airstrikes at the same three Houthi-controlled Yemen ports on Sunday following a warning from the IDF’s Arabic spokesperson, Col. Avichay Adraee, that locals should evacuate until further notice.
“Due to the terrorist Houthi regime’s use of seaports for its terrorist activities, we urge all those present at these ports to evacuate and stay away from them for your own safety until further notice,” Adraee said before the strikes began.
Over the last week, the Houthis have fired four missiles, with one falling short and landing in Saudi Arabia. The IDF intercepted all of the remaining ones.
This is a developing story.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.
ISRAEL HAMAS
IAF strikes over 150 Gaza terror targets, ground forces expand operations
IAF’s strikes targeted Beit Lahiya and Jabalya in northern Gaza with heavy airstrikes on Thursday overnight, The Jerusalem Post has learned
The Israel Air Force, with intelligence from the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), struck over 150 terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including anti-tank missile posts, terror cells, military structures, and operational centers utilized by terrorists to carry out attacks against IDF soldiers, the military confirmed on Friday.
The IAF targeted Beit Lahiya and Jabalya in northern Gaza with heavy airstrikes on Thursday overnight, The Jerusalem Post learned.
In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops operated to locate and dismantle terrorist infrastructure, including killing several terrorists who were operating in an observation compound, the military added.
Further, IDF soldiers continued to operate in southern Gaza, including dismantling terrorist infrastructure, structures, and shafts belonging to Hamas, the military statement continued.
In addition, several terrorists planning to plant an explosive device at an unconfirmed location were killed by the IDF.
These statements from the military came following the IDF’s call-up orders for tens of thousands of reservists earlier in May, as the military plans to expand its operations in Gaza.
At the time, the military said that the expansion would be in stages, signaling that it could take days or weeks before having a clearer picture of the strategy and impact of the IDF’s further invasion.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Trump: ‘People are starving’ in Gaza, US will address it
“We’re monitoring what’s happening in Gaza and we’re going to address it – people are starving there,” Trump said during his tour in Abu Dhabi.
An illustrative image of US President Donald Trump superimposed over displaced Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.(photo credit: Canva, EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/REUTERS, Hatem Khaled/Reuters)
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that “we’re monitoring what’s happening in Gaza and we’re going to address it – people are starving there,” while concluding his Gulf tour in Abu Dhabi.
Trump announced that many things regarding the issue will happen in the coming month, stating that “we need to help the Palestinians.”
The US president also said on Friday that Iran received a new proposal from the Americans regarding a nuclear deal, and that they need to “move quickly,” and if not, “bad things will happen.”
Regarding Syria, Trump said that he did not ask Israel about recognizing the new Syrian government, saying he believed “it was the right thing to do.” He noted that the US wants to see Syria prosper, and that the country would have no chance of succeeding if sanctions were not lifted.
Illustrative image of US President Donald Trump. (credit: Canva, Melina Mara/Pool via REUTERS, REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
“If it’s necessary, I think I’d be proud to have the United States have it, take it, make it a freedom zone,” he said during a business roundtable.
“Let some good things happen, put people in homes where they can be safe, and Hamas is going to have to be dealt with,” Trump was quoted as saying.
IDF officials have “privately concluded that Palestinians in Gaza face widespread starvation unless aid deliveries are restored within weeks,” the New York Times reported on Tuesday.
Trump took credit for release of Gaza hostages
US President Donald Trump took credit for the release of hostages from Gaza, telling reporters as he was boarding Air Force One on Wednesday, “Without the United States, the hostages would not be alive now. There are about 20 alive; we will get them out, step by step.
“Israel fought for a long time. They deserve a lot of credit; my people deserve a lot of credit, too,” he added.
This is a developing story.
END
I
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
Trump, Iran both desperate to cut nuke deal as formula still elusive – analysis
With current remarks resembling the 2015 JCPOA deal, Trump cannot allow the deal to close without achieving some other creative concessions.
Suddenly, both US President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei do not merely want to cut a nuclear deal and avoid a larger conflict; they are now both desperate for such a deal.
Khamenei has decided to ignore those within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who opposed making major concessions to roll back his nuclear program to reach a nuclear deal, after having let them dictate policy since 2019.
Likewise, Trump is paying lip service to Israel and to American officials who are hawkish about eliminating Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Nevertheless, in practical terms, he is ignoring the repeated advice not only of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but also of Mossad Director David Barnea and IDF Intelligence Chief Maj.-Gen. Shlomi Binder on some of the most critical details of a potential nuclear deal.
Khamenei has made it clear that he will not permanently dismantle his uranium-enrichment centrifuges, but he is willing to pause enrichment and give away much of the existing inventory of enriched uranium.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Iran’s nuclear achievements exhibition in Tehran, Iran April 9, 2025. (credit: IRAN’S PRESIDENCY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
This is essentially the same formula as the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, which Trump has always called the worst deal ever.
So, Trump cannot allow the deal to close without achieving some other creative concessions. This is especially true, since the same deal in 2025 would leave Iran only months away from nuclear weapons, and not a year away, because of its technological advances.
Its top scientists now have thousands of advanced centrifuges working and enough 60% highly enriched uranium to weaponize enough uranium for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months – all of which they did not know how to do in 2015.
How can Trump achieve a better nuclear deal than the 2015 JCPOA
What are some creative new concessions that Trump could say he got, and the Obama administration failed to get, but that Khamenei could also live with?
It is not going to be the destruction of all Iranian centrifuges or the prohibition of any uranium enrichment even at the lowest 3.67% level, which is several levels down from 60%.
There could be a complete pause of enriching uranium for a short period of time, a year or three years, followed by a longer time period, allowing Iran to enrich uranium at the 3.67% level but not above.
It could be placing a larger number of centrifuges in storage than was done under the JCPOA.
Under the 2015 deal, fewer than 6,000 centrifuges, or about 25%, kept running, while another 75% were put in storage.
Trump could get the Islamic Republic to agree to drop its running centrifuges down to 3,000 or some other number smaller than 6,000.
Also under the 2015 deal, the IAEA did all of the inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
One leaked idea has been that Khamenei could agree to allow US inspectors into many of the nuclear facilities – and even make some of the facilities joint business ventures.
It could be allowing nuclear inspectors into more sites than the IAEA was allowed into in 2015.
Moreover, it could be agreeing to some temporary pause of Iranian progress with certain ballistic missiles, as this issue was left completely out of the JCPOA.
Or it could be an Iranian promise that none of its proxies would attack Americans anywhere in the world, another issue left out of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Yet another idea has been to have essentially the same deal as the JCPOA, but to have the restrictions apply for longer than the 10- to 15-year term of the 2015 nuclear deal.
What all of these solutions have in common is that they would allow Trump to claim a better deal than the Obama administration, but without actually permanently solving the problem, while leaving Khamenei a path to potentially return to the nuclear threshold in a matter of months by breaking out some advanced centrifuges that are far more efficient than the 6,000 to 20,000 centrifuges from 2015.
This seems to be where Trump and Khamenei are taking the region.
If it happens in this way, Israel’s unique window to blow up all or most of Iran’s nuclear program in a time period when Khamenei’s air defenses are down – after Israel struck them last October 26 – will have passed.
SYRIA
Syria’s Sharaa open to Golan Heights deal, limiting Iranian presence, US congressman tells ‘Post’
“I think this is an opportunity that President Sharaa needs to seize and truly use to rebuild Syria into a free and prosperous nation,” US Congressman Marlin Stutzman.
By AMICHAI STEINMAY 15, 2025 20:00Updated: MAY 15, 2025 21:5
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in this handout released on May 14, 2025. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS.(photo credit: Getty Images/Ali Haj Suleiman, Anna Moneymaker, Win McNamee, MOHAMED HUSSAIN YOUNIS)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa was not the only one to celebrate US President Donald Trump’s decision on Tuesday to lift sanctions on Syria.
“I think this is an opportunity that President Sharaa needs to seize and truly use to rebuild Syria into a free and prosperous nation,” Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Indiana) told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
“If we can relieve some of that pressure and start the rebuilding process, I think that would be a positive step.”
Sharaa ‘really wants’ to change Syria, US congressman says
In April, he became the first member of Congress to visit Damascus since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December.
Sharaa “really wants to change the country,” Stutzman told the Post.
“We asked him about the elections, and why [they would] wait five years,” he said. “His answer was that so many Syrians are scattered around the world, and it will take time for them to return, rebuild, and establish a system that can support free elections.”
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and other officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in this handout released on May 14, 2025. (credit: SAUDI PRESS AGENCY/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Stutzman said Sharaa told him and the Trump administration he was working to reduce the influence of terrorist organizations in Syria, as well as limiting Iran’s presence.
“One of the things President Sharaa told me is that he is already helping Israel and the West by pushing Hezbollah out of Syria and limiting Iran’s influence,” he said. “He said that while he might allow Iran to maintain an embassy in Syria, he would definitely restrict the number of visas granted to Iranians entering the country,” he added.
Regarding the possibility of a normalization deal with Israel, Stutzman said Sharaa told him “Israel had a plan to divide the country… I don’t know if that’s true, but for him, that was the deal breaker.”
“He also mentioned the Golan Heights, and it seems he is open to some kind of a deal regarding the area,” he said.Despite Trump’s seemingly supportive tone, Stutzman said Sharaa should not celebrate too soon.
“If there is any kind of failure to fulfill these promises made by the Sharaa administration or government, these sanctions could be reinstated, and he needs to understand that,” he said.
Israel lobbies Trump administration against lifting Syrian sanctions
Behind the scenes, Israel lobbied for the US not to lift sanctions on Syria. Trump, however, did not seem particularly moved by the Israeli efforts.
Earlier this week, Trump told reporters: “We told the Israelis we are going to remove the sanctions… Turkish President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan thinks we should do it; it gives them a much better chance of survival.”
In response, Stutzman told the Post: “I think Israel has every right to be skeptical. After all, the Israeli people are the ones who live with the daily threat of rockets potentially slipping past the Iron Dome and landing in Israel.”
“If we want peace in the Middle East – if we want to see progress through commerce instead of chaos – this is a significant step,” he said, referring to the lifting of sanctions on Damascus.
The lifting of sanctions on Syria is ultimately an experiment, he added.
The interests of the US and Israel align in integrating Sharaa into the international community and working toward peace between Israel and Syria, Stutzman said.
“There are going to be people who do not want Syria to succeed here,” he said. “I hope President Sharaa aligns himself with us in the West and with Israel, which wants to see peace and prosperity.”
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia-Ukraine Talks Wrap Up In Under 2-Hours: ‘Nothing Meaningful To End War’
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 09:30 AM
The Friday meeting between Ukrainian and Russian officials, the first direct engagement of its kind in some three years, has ended, according to Turkey’s foreign ministry, and lasted a little under two hours.
Each side will in the aftermath convey to the press its version of things, and Ukraine has been right out the gate telling CNN that there was nothing meaningful to come out of these first talks.
A Ukrainian source said the Russia delegation “did not have a mandate to make important decisions” and that “they are not ready to decide anything meaningful to end the war.”
Many international headlines Thursday described the team of junior officials sent by the Kremlin as an ‘insult’ to the peace process; however, it’s also the case that no matter who President Putin sends, he is the one who will ultimately make the decisions.
Wall Street Journal has described that “The talks, in the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul, came about as the result of President Trump’s pressure, so far mostly applied on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to find an end to the war.”
But, “Just as the negotiations started, Russia struck near the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a salvo of ballistic missiles, according to local officials.”
And Reuters agrees in its assessment that there are “no apparent sign of progress so far in narrowing the gap between the sides, and a Ukrainian source called Moscow’s demands ‘non-starters’.
Neither side has so far offered no major concessions, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow.
During the Istanbul meeting, according to WSJ’s foreign correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov:
Russia demanded in Istanbul that Ukraine withdraw its troops from four regions — areas that Moscow has been trying to conquer but failed since 2022 — as a precondition for ceasefire. That’s an area twice the size of the country of Lebanon and home to more than a million Ukrainians. Not going to happen.
Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson were annexed in 2022, declared part of the Russian Federation, but Moscow forces still don’t have 100% control over them.
The talks in Istanbul lasted fewer than 2 hours and led nowhere, it looks. Russia demanded that Ukraine surrender, Ukraine refused. https://t.co/WR5A5jcI4e
And it doesn’t look like there was any progress on achieving a Trump and Zelensky-backed 30-day ceasefire. Moscow sees this as a tactic for Ukraine forces to simply rearm and regroup, at a moment they are in dire need of more manpower and artillery.
President Zelensky has meanwhile been making clear that Ukraine will not surrender its territory as “this is Ukraine’s land” – and he isn’t so much as ready to even offer Crimea. Zelensky and European leaders are reportedly holding a phone call with US President Trump in the wake of the Istanbul meeting.
They will likely try to convince the US leader that attempts to negotiate an end to the war with Putin are futile. This seems to have been Zelensky’s aim all along: getting Washington and Trump back on his side, and securing the unending flow of weapons, cash, and intelligence.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE ET AL
Macron, Starmer Blast ‘Unacceptable’ Russian Stance In Talks, Zelensky Urges More Sanctions
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 09:13 AM
Update(11:30ET): Zelensky in a phone call with President Trump soon on the heels of the Istanbul meeting, which lasted just under two hours, touted that he’s willing to “take the fastest possible steps to bring real peace” – but the West needs to hold “a strong stance”. Also on the group call were the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland.
Zelensky after the phone call told reporters that “pressure on Russia must be maintained”. He stated: “Our position — if the Russians reject a full and unconditional ceasefire and an end to killings, tough sanctions must follow.”
Kiev’s top European allies blasted Russia’s stance as presented in Istanbul “unacceptable”:
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, joined by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish leader Donald Tusk, said in a statement on Friday that “the Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time,” according to Reuters.
And PM Starmer followed by saying, “As a result of that meeting with President Zelensky and the discussion with President Trump, we are now closely aligning and coordinating our responses and will continue to do so.”
But importantly, neither side has yet shut the door on the possibility of more rounds of direct Russia-Ukraine talks. Certainly the Trump White House wants to see this happen.
As for the Russian delegation, its head Vladimir Medinsky announced that “each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, detailing it in writing.” Here’s the Russian readout:
We are satisfied with the outcome and ready to continue our contacts. Here is what has been agreed: First, in the coming days, there will be a large-scale prisoner exchange: 1,000 for 1,000 people. Second, the Ukrainian side has requested direct talks between the heads of state. We have taken this request under advisement. And third, we have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, detailing it in writing. Once these visions have been presented, we believe it is appropriate-as has also been agreed-to continue our negotiations.”
Ukraine is likely to continue pushing for Europe and the US to ramp up the sanctions campaign, and to commit more money and weapons.
* * *
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MAHA Chief Medical Advisor Demands mRNA COVID Jab Morato
British cardiologist and author Dr. Aseem Malhotra, the newly appointed Chief Medical Advisor to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative, says there is “overwhelming evidence” to ban the COVID-19 mRNA shots.
Dr. Malhotra is a former U.K. government and long-time ally of MAHA leaders like HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and NIH head Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.
He’s campaigned for taxes on sugary drinks, worked to lower the amount of Brits taking statins unnecessarily, and worked with government leaders to remove ultraprocessed foods from hospitals and schools, per The Daily Mail.
Though Malhotra is not formally employed by the federal government, he will serve as a leading voice of the movement and work closely with grassroots groups to advance its policy agenda.
In a Wednesday Twitter/X post, the British best-selling author (@DrAseemMalhotra) left no question where he stands on the COVID jab.
“It’s what you’ve been waiting for,” he wrote. “There is OVERWHELMING evidence to call for a moratorium on the mRNA covid jabs & help the vaccine injured. Let it rip.”
On the same day, MAHA Action, an organization founded by former Team Kennedy leadership, announced Malhotra’s appointment:
We are honored to announce that Dr. Aseem Malhotra has joined MAHA as our Chief Medical Advisor.
Dr. Malhotra is an NHS-trained Consultant Cardiologist and an internationally renowned authority in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of heart disease.
He has served as Honorary Council Member at Stanford’s Metabolic Psychiatry Clinic and Visiting Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at the Bahiana School of Medicine. As Founding President of the Public Health Collaboration and a founding member of Action on Sugar, Dr. Malhotra has led national efforts to curb sugar intake and champion low-carb diets for type 2 diabetes.
He is the bestselling author of The Pioppi Diet, The 21 Day Immunity Plan, and A Statin-Free Life, and played a key advisory role for the UK government on the link between obesity and COVID-19. His publications have garnered an Altmetric score exceeding 10,000, one of the highest worldwide for a clinical doctor.
We are thrilled to welcome Dr. Malhotra to the MAHA team and look forward to the invaluable expertise and passion he brings to our mission of Making America Healthy Again.
Malhotra told Daily Mail, “It’s very clear to me that perhaps this is the most important issue that has galvanized MAHA and helped elect President Trump,” he said, referring to criticism of mRNA COVID injections.
“There is a pandemic of the vaccine injured. We can’t make America healthy again if we don’t address this.”
The doctor believes there are “hundreds of thousands” of vaccine injuries and wants states to pass legislation halting use of the drugs because they have shown “more harm than good and never should have been rolled out in the first place.”
CDC data show 38,541 deaths have been linked to the COVID jab since 2020, but if fewer than 1% of adverse events are reported—as a 2010 HHS-funded Harvard analysis suggests—the real number could exceed 3.8 million, compared to just 7,109 deaths that got propoxyphene pulled after nearly 30 years on the market.
Malhotra recently told Fox News he began to doubt the safety of the COVID shot after his father died after suffering cardiac arrest.
Now leading America’s most unapologetic health freedom initiative, Malhotra is making one thing crystal clear: the COVID shot crisis isn’t over—it’s just finally being confronted.
END
ROBERT H….
Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH® on X: “mRNA Shots Are Crippling Humanity’s Ability to Reproduce — And No Government is Ending COVID-19 Vaccination Epidemiologist Nicolas Hulscher on The Stew Peters Show No country has pulled the COVID-19 vaccines from the market in a definitive move to protect the population https://t.co/SuCHxQgZUw” / X
FYI .. this will have an impact that no one is prepared for
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
You Get A Deal And YOU Get A Deal And YOU Get A Deal
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 10:30 AM
By Maartie Wiiffelaars, Senior Economist At Rabobank
You get a deal and YOU get a deal and YOU get a deal. Trump seems to be making deals these days as Oprah once gave away cars. The UK, China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have all signed some kind of deal with the US in a week’s time – while Syria may be granted sanctions relief and Iran basically has to choose between a nuclear deal or stricter enforced sanctions on its oil exports.
Yet mutual benefit is not obvious in all of the above cases, and in any case skewed. The 10% universal tariff is still in place, with Chinese goods still being subject to a 20% to 30% import tariff hike – with the risk of much higher rates in 90 days if a conclusive deal cannot be reached in the meantime. Meanwhile, it has been rather silent recently on the front of Japan and Korean talks, while talks with India are still ongoing, and talks with South-East Asian countries and the EU off to a slow start. Although Scott Bessent recently said that talks with Japan had been “very productive”, conversations with Indonesia “very forthcoming” and the proposal from Taiwan to be “very good”.
So, essentially, half-way the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, lots and lots of work still needs to be done to prevent the reciprocal rate increasing back again from 10% to 20% for the EU, to 26% for India, to 46% for Vietnam – China’s regional gateway to the US – and, perhaps, 54% for China itself. That is absent an extension of the pause of course.
With respect to US-India talks, India has so far lowered import tariffs on US Bourbon and motorcycles, among other things and Trump claimed India had “offered us a deal where basically they are willing to literally charge us no tariff”. To which India’s foreign minister replied by saying “nothing is decided till everything is” and that the deal would have to be mutually beneficial. One of the stumbling blocks highlighted in yesterday’s news was the US requests for India to open up its market for US ethanol – as the UK did. It will be difficult for India to accommodate, however, given its ambitions to reduce dependence on foreign energy and stimulate domestic ethanol production which would benefit domestic farmers – with farmers clearly being hurt if if doors for US ethanol and other agriculture products would open. Meanwhile, Trump made clear the US doesn’t want India to replace China as the hub for large-scale manufacturing production, telling iPhone’s Tim Cook to invest in US iPhone manufacturing rather than in India.
So, while India will be very happy to work with the US to counter China – although China’s export curbs on equipment necessary to produce anything from electronics to electric vehicles shows how difficult it actually is to cut out China –, this doesn’t ensure easy dealmaking.
Over to South-East Asia, where countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are trying to discuss a deal at the APEC meeting in South Korea this week, where the US trade representative Greer is present and which concludes today. Apart from tariff reductions on US goods, the main issue will be the countries’ gateway for Chinese stuff to be re-exported through the countries to the US. There are multiple ways through which the region is supporting such flows. One is by means of ‘rules-of-origin washing’ at its ports, basically relabelling Chinese manufacturing without adding value. This is illegal, and hardly beneficial to any of the countries involved – though hard to track. Yet another route is through importing Chinese inputs and parts to be used in manufacturing, which is profitably and very difficult if not impossible to eliminate at all.
Recent port data show that imports into the region surged over the past two months, as did exports out of it from some ports in the region, providing Trump with ammunition. As we underscored before, for these countries to secure a deal or not, it will come down very much to how tough the Trump administration’s stance will be.. Vietnam’s Prime Minister stressed this week that the US top priority is countering illegal transshipment, which bodes some hope for an agreement down the line. Although officials have expressed doubt to Reuters if the APEC meeting would actually be able to formulate a joint statement today.
Finally, EU-US talks have been moving really slow so far. EU offers to buy more US LNG and weapons and to lower tariffs on US industrial goods, if the US does the same, have so far been rejected. Talks are arguably moving to the next phase, but we don’t expect anything soon, if at all.
Bessent earlier this week claimed the EU “suffers from a collective action problem”, with different countries wanting different things. Yesterday’s meeting of EU trade ministers confirmed the EU doesn’t want to settle for a deal keeping the 10% universal tariff in place, as is the case for the UK. This seems to be non-negotiable for the US and more sectoral tariffs are in the pipeline. Especially a tariff on pharmaceuticals would be very painful for the EU, as it comprises about 20% of trade with the US.
The EU has circulated a term sheet among its member states with possible offers to be made to the US to come to a deal. Yet at the same time it has created a list with additional US goods to be hit with rebalancing tariffs and export curbs absent a deal. Both the sheet and list are currently up for stakeholder review, which should be concluded in the first half of June. According to Bloomberg, among the offers on the sheet are investment in LNG and AI, EU-US cooperation in sectors like metals, cars, semiconductors, critical minerals and aviation. In general, the EU is still willing to look at tariffs on industrial goods, but agriculture is something really different. Furthermore, it wants to cooperate to tackle Chinese overcapacity and dumping, but doesn’t want to cut China loose. Finally, tax, environment and safety regulations seem non-negotiable. All in all, for the time being, we still expect more tariffs to hit the EU, be it the return of the country-specific add-on and/ or more sector-specific tariffs. If so, the EU will put into force a partial tariff rebalancing package.
In other news we learned yesterday that the UK economy grew by 0.7% q/q in the first quarter of the year, outperforming expectations (0.6% q/q) and peers such as the US and Eurozone. UK growth was driven by increases in gross fixed capital formation, net trade, and household consumption. Net trade contributed 36 basis points to growth, largely due to a rise in manufactured goods exports, which was itself mainly the result of front-loading. However, both private and public spending also edged higher. In terms of output, industrial production grew by 1.1%, while the construction sector showed no growth. The services sector, however, expanded by 0.7% and was the largest contributor to overall output growth.
This confirms that growth is not solely being driven by front-loading. And it suggests businesses and consumers held up well before Labour’s tax rises took effect and Trump’s trade war began to hit confidence. There are signs of underlying resilience in this report, but recent data such as PMIs and labour market surveys since the April tax and trade changes point to a sharp slowdown in Q2.
Very strong Eurozone industrial production figures for March out yesterday were probably also driven by front-loading, but possibly also a reflection of a stabilization in the manufacturing sector after the industrial recession in 2024. More interesting in that respect is the 0.3% q/q gain in Eurozone employment, an acceleration from 0.1% q/q in Q4. Remarkable because it took place against the backdrop of geopolitical and tariff uncertainty and despite that, businesses increased employment. This could point at confidence effects being not as big as feared, or at least a contrast between what businesses fear/think and how they act.
The second reading of the Q1 Eurozone GDP figure of 0.3% q/q was slightly lower than the first estimate of 0.4% q/q, but at first glance still looks solid. Yet while positive that consumption likely contributed positively, the largest driving force seems to have been inventory building, which is expected to turn negative again this quarter. Furthermore, export growth seems to have been weak, despite clear signs of frontloading. Going forward, consumption is likely to continue to support the economy, but trade war related weakness and uncertainty are likely to supress investment growth and export growth – although some frontloading could persist in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. From next year we should see the first material positive GDP impact from more defense spending – with Germany yesterday confirming it will increase military spending to 5% of GDP in the coming years, as Trump requests.
In the US producer prices fell in April by 0.5% m/m, not yet showing the impact of tariffs, which matches earlier CPI figures. Impact will come, though, with for example Walmart saying yesterday that it expects price hikes to become really visible this month. Retail sales by the control group showed weak personal growth in April, but that was also the case in January after which sales turned out ok in Q1 overall. So weakness is visible, but it’s not yet alarming. Finally, initial jobless claims were stable, so nothing shocking to see there by the 10th of May yet.
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
Russia Readies Its First Underground Oil Storage Facility
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Russia’s first underground oil storage facility, built by a subsoil user in the Krasnoyarsk territory, is ready for trial operation, said Nina Erofeeva, head of the Oil and Gas Geology, Groundwater and Structures Department at the Federal Subsurface Resources Agency, according to Interfax.
Speaking at a conference on subsoil use, reserves appraisal, and regulations, Erofeeva said: “The first [licenses] have been received for the creation of oil storage facilities, in the Krasnoyarsk territory. This was also an unusual case. Russia has never had oil storage facilities. Oil has always been pumped through pipelines.
“Given recent events and the lack of infrastructure in the Arctic zone, oil storage facilities are needed in several regions. Accordingly, oil will be placed in these oil storage facilities so as not to burn it during pilot development.”
The idea of building underground oil storage was actively discussed in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic caused oil demand and prices to fall.
Interest in the idea grew again in March 2022 after Russian crude oil faced a global boycott. Experts from the Russian Gas Society said the ideal reserve volume should be 10-20% of annual production—about 55-100 million tonnes based on 2019 levels. They estimated it would take 10-12 years to build such facilities from scratch, but only 3-5 years if built in depleted oil fields.
Interfax writes that in September 2023, Rosnedra’s Central Commission approved the project for this first underground storage facility.
At the time, Igor Shpurov, head of the State Mineral Reserves Commission, clarified: “There is not a very large volume there, this for operating storage of oil, not strategic.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
INDIA
INDIA PAKISTAN
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1202 UP 0.0009 PTS OR 9 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 145.27 DOWN 0.303 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3308 UP 0005 OR 5 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3960 UP 0.0002 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 13.36 PTS OR 0.40%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 97.48 PTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .57%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 97.48 PTS OR 0.42%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 13.36 PTS OR 0.40%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.57%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1.79 PTS OR 0.00%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3198.85
silver:$32.29
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 100.54 DOWN 0.19 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
TURKISH LIRA: 38.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.460
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.487% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.866 DOWN 5 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.932 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3185.60
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.26
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 50.81 PTS OR 0.59%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 71.84 pts or 0.30%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 33.22 pts or 0.42%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 134.30 pts or 0.96 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 237.44 or 0.59%
WTI Oil price 61.91 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 64.73 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.07 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 8/ 100
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6780 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.165 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.765 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1152 down 0.0039 OR 39 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3277 DOWN .0026 OR 26 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6390 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.448
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.91 UP .323 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3976 UP 0.0021 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 21 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 62.31
Brent OIL: 65..21
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.4442
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 PTS to 4.9000%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 3.995%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.197 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.798 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.94 UP 0.21 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.85 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.00 UP 1 AND 00/100 roubles
GOLD $3200 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 32.29(3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 331.99 OR 0.78%
NASDAQ 100 UP 92.11PTS OR 0.43%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.23 DOWN 0.60 PTS OR 3.37%
GLD: $ 294.24 DOWN 3.60 PTS OR 1.21%
SLV/ $29.30- DOWN 0.31 PTS OR OR 1.05%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 74.45 OR 0.29%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
Stocks Soar Most Since COVID Lows, Gold Gags As Trade Policy Uncertainty Plunges
MORNING NEWS
“We’re Going To Be Fair”: Trump Will Set Tariff Rates For Other Nations In Weeks
by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 07:45 AM
President Trump has departed Abu Dhabi aboard Air Force One, concluding a historic week in the Middle East that saw the signing of more than a trillion dollars in deals aimed at advancing his ‘America First’ agenda.
.@POTUS boards Air Force One in Abu Dhabi — marking the end of his HISTORIC week in the Middle East.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 16, 2025
Ahead of his departure from the Middle East, President Trump addressed business leaders in Abu Dhabi, stating that his administration will unilaterally set tariff rates for U.S. trading partners within the next two to three weeks.
“We just reached a fantastic trade deal with the United Kingdom. And we have another big one that we reached with China,” the president said.
He continued, “At the same time, we have 150 countries that want to make a deal—but you’re not able to see that many countries.” He added that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick “will be sending letters out essentially telling people what “they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.”
“I think we’re going to be very fair. But it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us,” Trump said.
The president did not specify which countries want to make deals, nor the ones that will receive letters.
Trump: And we have.. 150 countries that want to make a deal but you’re not able to see that many countries so at a certain point over the next two to three weeks… we’ll be telling people what they will be paying to do business in the United States. pic.twitter.com/iZdCfb8ksh
However, the administration appears to have abandoned comprehensive negotiations in favor of setting terms directly for many countries due to what Bloomberg says “the lack of manpower and capacity makes it impossible to hold concurrent negotiations with all the countries caught up in the president’s so-called reciprocal tariffs plan.”
Earlier this week, the U.S. and China announced a breakthrough trade agreement that temporarily lowered tariffs on each other’s products for 90 days. The U.S. dropped its 145% on Chinese goods to 30%, while China lowered levies from 125% to 10%.
Goldman illustrates the rollercoaster ride of the tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and China in recent months, as well as the temporary cooling period aimed at de-escalating tensions.
On Wednesday morning, Goldman analyst Jerry Shen told clients, “We Now Expect the Effective Tariff Rate to increase by 13pp.”
Last week, Trump stated, “We have four or five other deals coming immediately. We have many deals coming down the line. Ultimately, we’re just signing the rest of them in.”
AFTERNOON NEWS:
Trump Torches GOP ‘Grandstanders’ As House Republicans Brawl Over ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 11:20 AM
A fiery intra-party fight exploded on Capitol Hill Friday as House Republicans clashed over President Donald Trump’s mammoth “One Big Beautiful Bill,” with Trump himself jumping into the fray to torch conservative holdouts as attention-hungry “grandstanders.”
As the House Budget Committee met to advance the 1,116-plus-page megabill – packed with Trump’s signature proposals on taxes, Medicaid, and immigration – chaos broke out behind the scenes, and in front of the cameras, as hardline conservatives threatened to blow up the entire process.
“Republicans MUST UNITE behind ‘THE ONE, BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL!’” Trump posted on Truth Social. “We don’t need ‘GRANDSTANDERS’ in the Republican Party. STOP TALKING, AND GET IT DONE!”
The scorched-earth post came as the House Budget Committee met down to mark up the massive reconciliation bill, which bundles together much of Trump’s second-term policy wishlist: tax cuts, welfare reform, immigration crackdowns, and the death of Biden’s green energy subsidies.
But what was supposed to be a legislative victory lap turned into a high-stakes hostage crisis, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) caught between warring GOP factions, each demanding major changes and threatening to sink the bill if they don’t get their way.
Conservatives on the committee – Reps. Chip Roy, Ralph Norman, Andrew Clyde, and Josh Brecheen – signaled they were ready to vote against the bill unless major changes were made. Their demands include a faster phase-in of Medicaid work requirements, a ban on undocumented immigrants receiving federal benefits, and immediate termination of Inflation Reduction Act clean energy provisions.
“If they don’t [change it], I’m gonna vote no. We’ll kill it,” Norman warned Thursday. “I don’t want to. But I will.”
The vote is ongoing, with Roy and Norman both using their time during committee to voice their opposition, CNN‘s Sarah Farris reports.
h
Rep. Roy: “I'm not going home this weekend. I'm staying here all weekend and we're going to get this damn thing done but the right way.
I'm not going to vote for a bad bill. I didn't come here to raise debt. I didn't come here to increase deficits. I didn't come here to cement… pic.twitter.com/0jcqR9cgz3
— Rep. Chip Roy Press Office (@RepChipRoy) May 16, 2025
The tension spilled into full view Friday morning when Norman, Roy, and Clyde abruptly left the committee room moments before the markup was scheduled to begin, prompting immediate speculation they were staging a walkout. All three returned shortly afterward, saying little, but still signaling deep frustration.
Norman told reporters the situation was “very disappointing,” adding “I hope they recess.”
Unbelievable. Rep. Blake Moore falls asleep during a committee meeting and had to be woken up. pic.twitter.com/xSKPKkP628
— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) May 14, 2025
Johnson, for his part, is trying to keep the circus moving. He has pledged to make some concessions – such as speeding up work requirement timelines and possibly harmonizing those across both Medicaid and SNAP – but every adjustment risks triggering a backlash from the other side of the GOP spectrum.
“If you push too hard on one side, the other side bulges out,” opines Punchbowl News. “That’s exactly what’s happening here.”
Very SALTy
Moderates are already howling over cuts to safety net programs and demanding changes of their own. Blue-state Republicans want the SALT deduction cap raised above the $30,000 ceiling currently in the bill. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) wants to remove language that would block legal refugees from getting food aid. And Florida Republicans are furious over a provision that clamps down on provider taxes – a method states use to draw more federal Medicaid dollars.
The markup itself became a theater of dysfunction – with Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) joking about the fact that he went viral earlier this week for falling asleep during a late-night hearing. “I also appreciate that you schedule the markup during daylight hours,” he said. Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) fired back: “Some of the staff decided to chip in and equip your chair with an electric shocking mechanism… I hope that is also a bipartisan proposal.”
But behind the laughs, the reality is grim. With Rep. Brandon Gill (R-TX) absent for the birth of his child, Johnson can’t afford even a single Republican defection if he wants the bill to make it out of committee.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) tried to downplay the drama, telling reporters, “The goal is to get it out of the committee today… because failure is not an option.”
How did we get here? These speed bumps aren’t surprising. This is a gigantic legislative grab-bag with lots of disparate priorities. We get that. It reminds us a bit of Build Back Better – which failed and led to the IRA, for what it’s worth. -Punchbowl News
Indeed, Speaker Johnson has tried to do what many before him could not: push through a comprehensive, everything-at-once bill that pleases both fire-breathing conservatives and centrist pragmatists. But by skipping the usual slow walk through committee education and member negotiations, he may have created a legislative trap for himself.
And of course, after all of this – the bill still has to get through the Senate…
Stay tuned for updates…
USA DATA
rates are just too hgih for houses to be built
(zerohedge)
Single-Family Home Permits Plunged In April, But ‘Renter Nation’ Returns
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 08:44 AM
A day after homeBUILDER sentiment finally cracked (though still dramatically more ‘confident’ than homeBUYERS)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and mortgage rates are rebounding higher, Housing Starts and Building Permits expectations were mixed ahead of this morning’s print.
The actual data was indeed mixed but both were disappointly below expectations as Starts rebounded just 1.6% MoM (below the +4.0% exp) from the 10.1% MoM collapse last month (small revision higher) while Permits (more forward looking) plunged 4.7% MoM (vs -1.2% MoM)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest MoM drop in Permits since March 2024, dragging the SAAR down tits lowest since July 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
The drop in Permits was largely driven by a huge 5.1% MoM drop in Single-Family apps (multi-family fell 4.4% MoM) – the biggest drop since Dec 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Housing starts were dominated by multi-family unit increases (for the third month in a row) as Renter Nation returns…
Single-Family down 2.1% to 927K, lowest since July 2024
Multi-family up 11.1% to 420K, highest since Dec 2023
Interstingly Starts picked up modestly despite the plunge in Homebuilder future sales expectations.,..
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps the most shocking chart – that explains why builders are not building single-family homes is that inventories of unsold NEW homes is surging…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations are not helping…
Source: Bloomberg
So, don’t bank on The Fed to save the day.
END
UMich Survey Suggests Women, Democrats, & Low-Income Americans Are Out Of Their TDS-Addled Minds
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 10:14 AM
Having embarrassed themselves with their TDS-driven cognitive dissonance over the past few months, Democrat-voting UMich respondents (and women, and low income Americans) in the preliminary May survey (a month after Liberation Day and also post-Pause and the massive meltup in stocks) turned the TDS-terror dial to ’11’.
Consumer Expectations are now at their lowest since – drum roll please… May 1980…
Source: Bloomberg
Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy.
Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.
The percentage of UMich respondents making unsolicited negative comments about news they’ve heard on government economic policy has surged to a record high of 66%!
Source: Bloomberg
The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the sixth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009.
Source: Bloomberg
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.7% last month to 7.3% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking five consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more.
Source: Bloomberg
This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large jump among Democrats to a ridiculous 9.6% over the next year!!
Source: Bloomberg
Republicans did forecast a rise in their view of 5Y inflation expectations (while Democrats were flat at 5.1%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot the odd one out – UMich Democrats, The NY Fed, or The Market…
Source: Bloomberg
One more for fun – comparing Democrats view of the inflationary outlook to the ‘hard’ inflationary data…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, given their historic track record (completely refusing to acknowledge the surge in inflation under Biden), should we simply be ignoring the manic Democrats screaming about inflation now?
Source: Bloomberg
The Republicans seemed to get it? But then again, they’re all racist ignoramuses with no PhDs… so there’s that, right!?
Sorry, one more that made us fucking laugh… one-third of women surveyed believe inflation over the next year will be 15% or higher…
Low-Income Americans are also terrified like never before…
So someone is lying: actual spending all time high while reported sentiment (based on 250 polled UMich respondents) is all time low.
Is the soft-data slump all driven by leftists imbibing mainstream media’s desperate propaganda-fueled terror of what Trump is doing?
Perhaps that explains why soft survey data has started to turn back up to hard data reality in the last week as it’s hard to hate and keep pushing out your depression-era forecasts when stocks are at record highs and jobless claims remain near record lows.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
BOEING
Boeing Set To Avoid Prosecution In Twin Fatal 737 Max Crashes
by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 11:40 AM
Boeing has tentatively reached a nonprosecution agreement with the U.S. Justice Department to avoid a June 23 trial over allegations it misled federal regulators about a flight control system tied to two fatal 737 MAX crashes that killed 346 people in 2018 and 2019, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter.
Sources said the deal requires a judge’s approval and would allow the Seattle-based planemaker to avoid entering a guilty plea in the case.
Here are more details from the report:
Boeing has no longer agreed to plead guilty in the case, prosecutors told family members of crash victims during a Friday meeting, the sources said. The company’s posture changed after a judge rejected a previous plea agreement in December, prosecutors told the family members.
DOJ officials are still weighing whether to proceed with a nonprosecution agreement or take Boeing to trial, a DOJ official said during the meeting. No final decision has been made, and Boeing and DOJ officials have not yet exchanged papers to negotiate final details of any nonprosecution agreement, the official told family members.
In April, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said the planemaker was negotiating with the DoJ to reach a revised plea deal in the criminal fraud case.
“I want this resolved as quickly as anyone,” Ortberg said at a U.S. Senate hearing, referring to the timeline for settling the case. He added, “Hopefully, we’ll have a new agreement here soon.”
Last month, Boeing reached settlements with the families of two victims killed in the March 2019 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX.
In 2021, Boeing accepted responsibility for compensatory damages to the families of the 157 victims of the Ethiopian Airlines crash.
Boeing apologized for both crashes last month, saying it “made an upfront commitment to fully and fairly compensate the families and accepted legal responsibility for the accidents. We will continue to work to fairly resolve the claims of the family members.”
Reuters notes that the planemaker has “settled more than 90% of claims from the two 737 MAX accidents and paid billions of dollars in compensation to the families through lawsuits, a deferred prosecution agreement, and other payments.”
Of course, the nonprosecution agreement still requires a judge’s approval and could force Boeing to pay additional fines, implement further internal reforms, or strengthen compliance measures, among other conditions. Those conditions have not yet been released.
END
NEW YORK
New York To Send ‘Inflation Refund’ Checks To Eligible Residents
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday announced the state’s first-ever “inflation refund,” a one-time payment to eligible residents.
Hochul said during a news conference that inflation has driven up costs for New Yorkers, and they should get that money back. The funding, according to the governor, will come from the money the state collected in higher sales taxes because of inflation.
“We collected more in sales tax as a result. Unanticipated revenue. I said, this can go into the state coffers, but why not give it to the residents whose pockets it came out of? They paid more than they ever expected. That’s the whole idea behind an inflation refund.”
Collectively, the one-time payment will put $2 billion back in the pockets of over eight million New York taxpayers, Hochul said. The amount of the payment would be based on filing status and income.
Joint tax filers who earn up to $150,000 will receive a $400 check, while those earning between $150,000 and $300,000 will get $300. Single tax filers with incomes up to $75,000 should expect to receive a $200 inflation refund check, and those earning between $75,000 and $150,000 will get a $150 check.
Hochul first proposed her plan of an inflation refund check last December and secured the funding in the fiscal year 2026 state budget agreement. Her initial plan called for higher refunds, specifically $300 for single filers making $150,000 or less, and $500 for joint filers making up to $300,000.
According to data from the Consumer Price Index, the New York area experienced the highest inflation rate in the country from April 2024 to April 2025, with a rate of 3.9 percent. New York’s rate was much higher than the national average, which was 2.3 percent in April 2025. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area experienced a 3.9 percent increase in prices, while core inflation reached 4.3 percent.
In announcing the inflation refund plan, the governor signed a large check while announcing the inflation refund. “We got it done, everybody. We got it done,” she told supporters.
Residents who qualify for the one-time payment don’t need to fill out an application or take any type of action, according to a news release by the governor’s office. Rather, the state will automatically send them a check based on their 2023 tax filing. The checks will be mailed over a period of several weeks beginning in the fall of 2025.
As part of the state budget, Hochul is also giving 1.6 million New York families an annual tax credit of up to $1,000 per child under age four and up to $500 per child from four through sixteen, marking the largest expansion of New York’s child tax credit in its history. The state budget agreement also includes her plan to cut taxes for more than 75 percent of all tax filers in the state.
United Way of New York City President and CEO Grace Bonilla said in a statement in response to Hochul’s budget:
“These changes will ease the burden on people who are already facing untenable challenges – forced to choose between feeding their children or paying bills.”
According to United Way’s 2023 True Cost of Living report, 50 percent of working-age people in New York City are struggling to make ends meet.
New York’s inflation refund checks are similar to California’s Middle Class Tax Refund program. That one-time payment was issued to eligible recipients between October 2022 and January 2023, to provide relief to residents in the state. California’s refund came in the form of a debit card that required activation.
Pundits are confused about what to make of the first 100 days of the second Trump administration.
Supporters talk of “flooding the zone,” believing Trump is making so many changes so quickly that his opposition is reduced to deer-in-the-headlights infancy.
They must be right when the nation suffers daily Democratic pottymouth videos, vandalism of Teslas, infantile meltdowns at congressional witnesses, rioting against federal agents to protect illegal alien felons, protesting on behalf of women beaters, M-13 gangbangers, human traffickers, and assaulters, and visa-holding violent students praising Hamas terrorists.
In contrast, opponents either claim that Trump’s first three months are either directionless chaos or a Hitlerian nightmare or both.
But what is really happening?
One, Trump is finally addressing the problems that proverbially “cannot go on forever, and so they won’t go on.”
When, if ever, would the left have closed the southern border? After 10, 30, 50 million illegal aliens?
How many more criminal illegal entrants was the Biden administration willing to allow into American neighborhoods—500,000? 1 million? 3 million?
How long was the world simply going to ignore the human destruction on the doorstep of Europe?
Would Biden or Harris have sought a ceasefire? Or would it have taken another 1.5, 3, or even 5 million more dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainians and Russians?
Nor did past administrations ever seek a solution to the massive national debt, much less the uncontrollable budget and trade deficits.
All prior presidents passed the day of judgment on to some vague future presidency, assured that their money printing would at least not blow up on their watch.
All moaned that China was piling up huge trade surpluses while denying its own population the usual modern safety net. They knew Beijing’s aim was to use the trillions of dollars in trade surpluses to build a new massive military, a greater arsenal of nuclear bombs, and a new imperial Belt and Road overseas empire.
Yet no administration did anything but greenlight American outsourcing and offshoring while ignoring Chinese trade cheating and technology theft.
Indeed, prior presidencies appeased and enriched China on the foolish belief that such indulgence would lead to Chinese prosperity, and with such Western-style affluence, soon a globalized, democratic, and supposedly friendly China.
In sum, we just witnessed all at once a 100-day, 360-degree effort to address all the existential challenges that we knew were unsustainable but were either afraid or incompetent to address.
Second, the administration apparently wants to confront the source of these crises and believes it is the progressive project.
The left maintains real political power not by grass-roots popularity, but rather by unelected institutional clout. The party of democracy uses anti-democratic means to achieve its ends of perpetual control.
It wages lawfare through the weaponization of the state, local, and federal courts.
It exercises executive power through cherry-picked federal district and circuit judges and their state and local counterparts.
The permanent bureaucracies and huge federal workforce are mostly left-wing, unionized, and weaponized by a progressive apparat. Their supreme directive is to amalgamate legislative, judicial, and executive power into the hands of the unelected Anthony Faucis, Jim Comeys, and Lois Lerners of the world—and thus to override or ignore both popular plebiscites and the work of the elected Congress.
Over ninety percent of the media—legacy, network, social, and state—are left-wing. Their mission is not objectivity but, admittedly, indoctrination.
Academia is the font of the progressive project. Ninety percent of the professoriate are left-wing and activist—explaining why campuses believe they are above the rules and laws of the Constitution, the Supreme Court, and the U.S. Congress.
Add into the mix the blue-chip Accela corridor law firms and the globalized corporate and revolving-door political elite.
The net result is clear: almost everything the vast majority of Americans and their elected representatives did not want—far-left higher education, a Pravda media, biological men destroying women’s sports, an open border, 30 million illegal aliens, massive debt, a weaponized legal system, and a politicized Pentagon—became the new culture of America.
So, Trump is not just confronting unaddressed existential crises but also the root causes of why, when, and how they become inevitable and nearly unsolvable.
His answer is a messy, knock-down-drag-out counterrevolution to reboot the country back to the middle where it once was and where the Founders believed it should remain.
His right and left opponents call such pushback chaotic, disruptive, and out of control.
But the counterrevolution appears disorderly and upsetting, mostly to those who originally birthed the chaos; it certainly does not to the majority of Americans who finally wanted an end to the madness.
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
Harvard settles Jewish student’s lawsuit over alleged antisemitism
The lawsuits were brought by Students Against Antisemitism, and by Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education and the Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law.
By REUTERSMAY 16, 2025 03:50Updated: MAY 16, 2025 04:0
AN AERIAL BANNER reading ‘Harvard hates Jews’ flies over the campus at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, last year. Zionist students in the Diaspora today demonstrate a courage Israelis will never need, the writer asserts.(photo credit: Faith Ninivaggi/Reuters)
Harvard University has settled a high-profile lawsuit by an Orthodox Jewish student who accused the Ivy League school of ignoring antisemitism on campus.
Alexander Kestenbaum, who is known as Shabbos, and Harvard jointly agreed to end the case, according to a dismissal notice filed on Thursday in Boston federal court.
“Harvard and Mr. Kestenbaum acknowledge each other’s steadfast and important efforts to combat antisemitism at Harvard and elsewhere,” the university said in a statement on Thursday. “Harvard and Mr. Kestenbaum are pleased to have resolved the litigation.”
JPost Videos
Settlement terms were not disclosed. Lawyers for Kestenbaum did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Antisemitism at Harvard University
The settlement came four months after Harvard promised additional protections for Jewish students, as it resolved two lawsuits claiming it was a hotbed of rampant antisemitism.
ANTI-ISRAEL BOOKS outnumber pro-Israel books in the Middle East section of the Harvard University bookshop. (credit: Tomer Rayfer)
Both lawsuits were among many accusing universities of encouraging antisemitism after war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, leading to pro-Palestinian protests on many American campuses.
Jewish students said Harvard tolerated their being maligned as “murderers” and subjected to viral attacks, and accused the university of hiring professors who promoted anti-Jewish violence and spread antisemitic propaganda.
The lawsuits were brought by Students Against Antisemitism, and by Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education and the Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law.
Kestenbaum was a plaintiff in the Students Against Antisemitism lawsuit, but did not settle at the time.
He graduated from Harvard Divinity School last year, and has become a growing voice in a Republican-led campaign to root out antisemitism in major American universities.
Harvard is one of the chief targets of that campaign, and US President Donald Trump’s administration has frozen or terminated more than $2.6 billion of the university’s federal grants and contracts in recent weeks.
The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based school is suing the Trump administration over grant cutoffs, mainly in medical sciences, calling them an unconstitutional attempt to curtail academic freedom and free speech.
Another Ivy League school, Columbia University, is also a prime White House target over antisemitism.
KING NEWS
The King Report May 16, 2025 Issue 7494
Independent View of the News
April PPI and Core PPI had the biggest decline since Covid. But March was revised higher. April Retail Sales had significant downward March revisions.Apr PPI -0.5% m/m & 2.4% y/y, 0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y exp, prior 0.0% from -0.4%Apr Core PPI -0.4% m/m & 3.1% y/y, 0.3% m/m & 3.1% y/y expected, prior 0.4% from -0.1%April Retail Sales 0.1% m/m, 0.0% expected, prior 1.7% from 1.4%Ex-Autos & Gas 0.2%, 0.3% expected, prior 1.1% from 0.8%Ex-Autos 0.1%, 0.3% expected, prior 0.8% from 0.5%Initial Jobless Claims 229k, 228k exp; prior 229k from 228kContinuing Claims 1.881m, 1.89m exp., prior 1.872m from 1.879mApril Industrial Production 0.0%, 0.1% m/m expected, -0.3% priorMfg. Production -0.4% m/m, -0.2% exp, 0.4 priorCapacity Utilization 77.7%, 77.8% expected and priorMay Phil Fed Business Outlook -4, -11 expected, -26.4 priorMay NAHB Housing Market Index 34, 40 expected and priorMay Empire Mfg. -9.2, -8.0 expected, -8.1 priorMarch Business Inventories 0.1% m/m, 0.2% expected and prior PPI Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf Retail Sales Report: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html
Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earnings – EPS .61 adjusted vs. .58 expected; Revenue: $165.61 billion vs. $165.84 billion expected In the fiscal first quarter, Walmart’s net income fell to $4.49 billion, or 56 cents per share, compared with $5.10 billion, or 63 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter… Comparable sales – an industry metric also known as same-store sales – jumped 4.5% for Walmart U.S. and 6.7% for Sam’s Club, excluding fuel. E-commerce sales increased 21% in the U.S., marking the 12th straight quarter of double-digit gains. Global e-commerce sales jumped 22% year over year… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.html
WMT sank as much as 5.1% and led the DJIA lower. However, the stock hit a bottom of 91.89 at 9:37 ET and soared to 96.72 at the 12:41 ET.
Due to DJT haters in the media, at the Fed, on Wall Street, and in Congress, Trumpageddon Tariff warnings, invoking ‘tariffs’ frightens Street sheep into a degree of panic. Later, saner angels react.
Trump Asks Apple to Stop Moving iPhone Production to India – BBG :46 ET
ESMs opened lower on Wednesday, traded sideways for three hours, and then broke down. ESMs hit the daily low of 5867.00 at 5:08 ET. They then plodded to 5905.50 at 10:00 ET. After an A-B-C retreat to 5887.00 at 10:34 ET, ESMs zoomed to 5944.50 at 13:21 ET. After a drop to 5921.50 at 14:21 ET, ESM rallied to 5937.50 and then traded sideways until they broke lower after this:
Meta to Delay Rollout of Flagship AI Model ‘Behemoth’: WSJ 15:17 ET “Senior execs at the companyare frustrated at the performance teams that built Llama 4 models…”
ESMs sank to 5917.50 at 15:26 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESMs to 5941.50 at 16:00 ET. The explosive rally on Thursday was probably the manipulation for the Expiry Week Squeeze.
@Stocktwits: It’s been an eventful week for COIN. Stock is down 5.7% following the hack
Positive aspects of previous session Manipulation for today’s May option expiration boosted stocks. USMs rallied sharply while oil and gasoline declined sharply on recession angst. The DJIA was the strongest equity index.
Negative aspects of previous session Gold rallied smartly. Fangs declined modestly: AMZN -2.42%, Meta -2.35%
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What major issues will ‘experts’ be wrong about next?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5902.10 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5924.21; 5865.16
Dems have such an acute case of TDS that only 30% hopes the US wins the trade war with China!
Brian Wesbury @wesbury: The Federal Reserve is Broken. Please tell me how you can justify either period. The negative real rates for roughly 13 years? Or the current much higher real rates! Nothing is consistent or makes sense. https://x.com/wesbury/status/1923123531220464047
Japan Q1 GDP SA -0.2% q/q, -0.1% exp; 0.6% prior GDP Annualized SA -0.7% q/q, -0.3% exp.; 2.4% prior from 2.2% GDP Nominal 0.8% q/q as expected; 1.2% prior from 1.1% GDP Deflator 3.3% y/y; 3.2% expected; prior 2.9%
Today is expiration for May options. Powell speaks at 8:40 ET. Stocks tend to rally on the expiration opening and into Powell addresses. If Powell goes dovish, stocks should surge. However, for the past few years, stocks have struggled on expiration day due to beaucoup retail traders being massively long expiring call options. If stocks are jumping in the afternoon, retail traders will dump.
ESMs are 3.50; NQMs are +16.00; and USMs are +10/32 at 20:25 ET.
Expected Economic Data: Apr Housing Starts 1.363m, Permits 1.45m; Apr Import Price Index -0.3% m/m &-0.3%, ex-Petro 0.1% m/m; Export Price Index -0.4% m/m; May UM Sentiment 53.4, Current Conditions 59.6, Expectations 48.2, 1-year Inflation 6.5%, 5-10-Inflation 4.4% (Invalid survey due to political bias, but the usual suspects will still trade it.) Fed Gov Barr 14:05 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5554; 100-day MA: 5771; 150-day MA: 5822; 200-day MA: 5757 DJIA 50-day MA: 40.098; 100-day MA: 42,314; 150-day MA: 42,695; 200-day MA: 42,276 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5916.93 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5447.29 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5694.47 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5877.82 triggers a sell signal
@DefiyantlyFree: The plane that was a gift from Qatar was actually a conversation that was started a year ago by the Biden administration with the Qataris? You literally can’t make this stuff up. https://x.com/DefiyantlyFree/status/1923098990666449204
Trump from Air Force One: “Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together, OK?”
@LegInsurrection: Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to the media: “If you allow Democrats to make these intentionally false claims without pushback, then you’re aiding and abetting the spread of misinformation.” (On Medicaid reform)
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem @Sec_Noem: Disgraced former FBI Director James Comey just called for the assassination of @POTUS Trump. DHS and Secret Service is investigating this threat and will respond appropriately.
@FBIDirectorKash: We are aware of the recent social media post by former FBI Director James Comey, directed at President Trump. We are in communication with the Secret Service and Director Curran. Primary jurisdiction is with SS on these matters and the FBI will provide necessary support.
Pollster @Peoples_Pundit: James Comey hoping to use Instagram to incite someone to kill Donald Trump is very much in character for a former FBI director. That’s how his idols killed Malcolm X, almost certainly MLK, and many others. They never do the dirty themselves. They manipulate others to do it.
@CollinRugg: James Comey deletes his “8647” post from Instagram and posts a “clarification” post, claims he had no clue the numbers were associated with violence. “I didn’t realize some folks associate those numbers with violence …” This guy is such a dork and a fraud. Insane how he was once the director of the FBI. (Then why did the dreadful FBI Director post ‘86’ if he didn’t know what it means?)
@JesseBWatters: @KellyannePolls: Comey knows exactly what he was doing by posting the “86” threat. He’s had out for @realDonaldTrump. He’s a proven liar and that’s what he’s doing right now with this cover-up. https://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1923169024705261984
For years, the media, Dems, and the GOPe told us Comey was NOT a political partisan! @latimes: 6-year-old boy died after father left him in hot car, police say
@BillMelugin_: This “Paso Robles father” is an illegal alien with a history of child neglect allegations who was arrested for a handful of misdemeanors on April 29th but was released w/ ICE’s detainer ignored/not honored due to sanctuary policy. He is now charged w/ murder in his son’s death.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“86 47” – Former FBI Director Comey Posts-Then-Deletes Creepy Threat Aimed At Trump
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Former FBI Director James Comey posted a photo of sea shells arranged into the numbers “86 47” on his Instagram account today, before shortly deleting the post.
The immediately preceding post shows Comey lounging at the beach while pretending to read his own crime novel, his presence at the beach lending to the fact that this was not a hack.
Many are blasting Comey for issuing a not-so-thinly-veiled threat at sitting President Donald Trump, including the President’s son and Congressman Andy Biggs:
Just James Comey causally calling for my dad to be murdered.
And here is his explanation for the ‘shells’ and the deletion…
…you simply cannot make this shit up!!!
And we screen-grabbed this before it was deleted too – oh the inspiration…
Runs in the family…
As covered previously in a ZeroHedge piece titled “From Epstein To Diddy: Spotlight Shines On James Comey’s Prosecutor Daughter”, Comey’s offspring smell a little swampy as well. From the piece:
In a thinly covered news story from December that’s suddenly relevant again (read on), New York Prosecutor Maurene Comey –whose father James Comey famously refused to prosecute Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information & then participated in the Russia collusion hoax – joined the prosecution against Combs. The younger Comey has previously worked as lead prosecutor on both the Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell cases, as well as that of former Epstein cellmate Nicholas Tartaglione.
…
Maurene Comey becamse a US attorney in the Southern District of New York in 2015.
In 2019, when she was just 30-years-old, Comey became one of the lead prosecutors in the Jeffrey Epstein case before he was found dead in his jail cell in August 2019.
Two years later, she became one of three lead prosecutors in the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s partner in crime and daughter of suspected Mossad operative Robert Maxwell.
Before becoming a US attorney, Comey clerked for US District Court chief judge Loretta Preska of the SDNY – who notably oversaw a long-running defamation case filed by Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre against Maxwell.
Comey was also involved in the case ofNicholas Tartaglione, a former NYPD officer who was convicted of killing four men in 2016, and who was briefly Epstein’s cellmate in the Manhattan Metro Correctional Center. Tartaglione claims to have helped Epstein after ‘finding him unconscious’ (and totally not trying to kill him) prior to Epstein’s actual death.
In 2016, Tartaglione suspected a man named Martin Luna had stolen money from him – for which “Tartaglione tortured Martin and then forced one of Martin’s nephews to watch as he strangled him to death with a zip-tie,” according to a statement by the US Attorney’s Office.
Two days after Epstein’s death, NY Times reporter James B Stewart, who had spent 90 minutes with Epstein a year prior, wrote “The overriding impression I took away from our roughly 90-minute conversation was that Mr. Epstein knew an astonishing number of rich, famous and powerful people, and had photos to prove it. He also claimed to know a great deal about these people, some of it potentially damaging or embarrassing, including details about their supposed sexual proclivities and recreational drug use.
And so, whether this is just a case of ‘it’s a small world’ or something a little (or a lot) less innocent, James Comey’s daughter is now involved in a second case where high-profile celebrities and politicians may have been secretly filmed engaging in sexual activity with minors.
Comey’s deep state tentacles make the cryptic Instragram post that much more unsettling. Might there be some hints in Comey’s shitty novel? Donald Barr’s Space Relations anyone?
GREG HUNTER
TO ALL OUR CANADIAN FRIENDS, A SAFE AND HAPPY HOLIDAY WEEKEND
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