GOLD CLOSED UP $46.65 TO $3,231.15

SILVER CLOSED UP $0.24 TO $32.37

 GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3232.20

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.36

Bitcoin morning price:$103,840 UP 370 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $104,840 up 1370 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $14.35 TO $1003.80

Palladium price; UP $18.30 TO $978.25

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,510.07 UP 42.89 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2419.15 UP 8.08 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,566.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MAY 6/2025

*EURO GOLD: 2874.80 UP 6.12 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 3018.80 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)

DONATE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,182.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/16/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/20/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 7
323 C HSBC 28
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 25
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3
905 C ADM 13

TOTAL: 38 38
MONTH TO DATE: 23,134

JPMORGAN STOPPED 0/38

MAY

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT NOTICES FOR 38 OZ  3800, oz or 0.11819 TONNES

total notices so far: 23,134 contracts for 2,313,400 OR 71.950 tonnes)

FOR MAY

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SILVER NOTICES: 138 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 690,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 14,604 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 73.020 million oz

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $46.65 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.85 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.17 AT THE SLV: HJUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:

CLOSING INVENTORY: 447.374 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 92 CONTRACTS TO 137,201 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.24 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.  WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 108 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 200 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S RAID AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE AS THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 492 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A  200 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE 492 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN MONDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 89 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.24. 

THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: A HUGE 492 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY  $0.24) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH

WE HAD A 200 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ:

THUS:

INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 74.530 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 87.460 MILLION OZ./

WE HAD:

/ FAIR COMEX OI LOSS+// A 200 SIZED  EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI)   HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 492 CONTRACTS)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A SMALL 19 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 DAYS, total 3083 contracts:   OR 15,415 MILLION OZ  (237 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  15.415 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ

JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)

FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL

MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.

APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE

MAY: 15.415 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 92 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.24 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 200 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 200 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF  15.965 MILLION  OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK

FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ

AND NOW MAY:

NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 74.780 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 260,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 87.720 MILLION OZ

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT   (492 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (MONDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.

WE HAD 138 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 690,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1107 OI CONTRACTS  TO 441.666 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED 1107 CONTRACTS //.

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (1474 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $38.90 IN PRICE// FRIDAY//RAID//.

ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..

FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES STANDING!

FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

AND NOW MAY:

INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO WIHICH WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 72.5909 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 81.9959 TONNES OF GOLD

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $38.90 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2214 OI CONTRACTS (6.886 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE DURING THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF MAY, AND THROUGHOUT EACH AND EVERY DAY MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MAY CONTRACT MONTH….. A MONSTROUS 82.1799 TONNES DESPITE IT BEING AN OFF MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 740 CONTRACT:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,666/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!

SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 137,201 CONTRACTS!!

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2214 CONTRACTS  WITH 1474 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 740 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2214 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 640 CONTRACTS ISSUED. THIS ENDS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE T.A.S ISSUANCED AVERAGING 30,000+ FOR THIS MONTH

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (740 CONTRACT) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1474 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2214 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 82.179 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 0.5847 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR MAY 13 , 15TH AND 19TH ISSUANCE OF 9.589 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 82.179 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 82.179 TONNES OF GOLD.(INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE)

.

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A  $38.90 COMEX PRICE LOSS.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT LOSS IN PRICE AS WE HAD OUR FAIR GAIN OF 2214 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.

  4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5)  SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (700 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 640 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY INITIAL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 16,955 CONTRACTS OR 1,695,500OZ OR 52.737 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1304 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  52.737 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  52.737 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.48% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

2024 AND 2025:

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES

JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)

FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.

APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.

MAY: 52.737 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 92 CONTRACTS OI  TO 137,201 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  7 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 200 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 92 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 108  CONTRACTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.24 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 0.445 MILLION PAPER OZ

 OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.24 LOSS  IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.36 PTS OR 0.40%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 97.48 PTS OR 0.42%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1.79 PTS OR 0.00% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .57%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.029 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2033/ Oil UP TO 61.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MGREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2029 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2033 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER

END

ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.12 PTS OR 0.00%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 12.33 PTS OR 0.05%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 255.09 PTS OR 0.28% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.64%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2123 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2109/ Oil UP TO 61.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.76 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.2123 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2109 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1474 CONTRACTS TO 441,666 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $38.90 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (740 ).

THE CME ANNOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT MUCH TO MY SUPREME ANGER,  A MONSTER 2060 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF FOR 206,000 OZ OR 6.405 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY RISES TO 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE GETTING QUITE ANTSY OF GETTING ITS GOLD BACK.

IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.

HISTORY: LAST THREE PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK

IN MARCH:

THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.

IN FEBRUARY:

WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.

THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:

1. THE BANK OF ENGLAND
2. THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)

THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)

IN APRIL:

WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.

MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL

IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2214 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUED TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS SMALL AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 641 T.A.S. FOLLOWING HUGE ISSUANCES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ENDING EARLY IN THE WEEK. . LAST THURSDAY’S ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST NUMBER BY FAR IN COMEX HISTORY WITH LAST FRIDAY’S BEING THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED!THE AVERAGE OF THE 5 ISSUANCES WAS 35,000+. NATURALLY THAT SIGNALS THAT WE WOULD WITNESS CONTINUAL RAIDS AND THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED!!…

THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE TODAY (FRIDAY/MAY 16)  AT 9.978TONNES, THIS MONTH WE HAVE RECORDED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY AT 9.978 TONNES!!! MONDAY’S QUEUE JUMP IS A STRONG .5847 TONNES.

THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 82.179 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF .5847 AND TODAY’S NEW 6.405 TONNES EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE/NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK: 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK!)//NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING: 82.179 TONNES

THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 222 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING. 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

 THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 740 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: :  /JUNE  740 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 740 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.

WE HAD :

1. HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
2. ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE

T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED, 641 CONTRACTS.  

THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:

1. STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
2. LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.

MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY

THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE

FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL

// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES

AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD

YEAR 2025:

JAN 2025:

113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)

FEB: 2025:

256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)

MARCH:

STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES  WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

APRIL:

FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

MAY:

INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.4634 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 7 (A RECORD) + ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP MAY 9 OF 0.534 TONNES + MAY 12 AT .5132 TONNES _ MAY 13; QUEUE JUMP OF 2.444 TONNES AND THEN MAY 14 RECORD 6.8800 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN (MAY 15) RECORD OF 9.978 TONNES AND THEN FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 108,900 OZ/3.387 TONNES (MAY 16) AND FINALLY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5847 + EXCHANGE FOR RISK//9.591 TONNES = 82.179 TONNES

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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES  EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes

2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES

FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK

= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY

MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)

APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)

MAY: STANDING NOW 72.5909 TONNES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH) + 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK EQUALS 82.179 TONNES!!

COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $38.90/ /)AND THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE NOW SUCCEEDING AS GOLD ATTEMPTED TO BREACH THAT 3400 DOLLAR BARRIER AGAIN THURSDAY TRADING.  IT IS NOW TRADING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WELL BELOW TO THAT LEVEL AT $3234.00

MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT

THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER

EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES

THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH

EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.

MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3

TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.

APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES

SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:

ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.

MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.

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HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MONTH; FINAL GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL:

APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..

ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// MAY COMEX CONTRACT

WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 10.329 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/APRIL 30. WE HAD A STRONG 188 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP, MONDAY, FOR 18,800 OZ OR 0.5847 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US SIMPLE MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 72.5909 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD (MAY 13 MAY 15.MAY 19) EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 9.591 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 82.179 TONNES

THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 82.179 TONNES

ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $38.90

WE HAD A STRONG 1107 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2214 CONTRACTS OR 221,400 0Z (8/86 TONNES)

confirmed volume MONDAY 272,183. contracts: fair volume////

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

MAY

// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT

MAY 19

INITIAL

dealer deposits: 0 entry

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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER

we have 0 customer entry

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withdrawals:2

2 ENTRIES
i) Out of JPMorgan 101,625.508 oz
ii) Out of Stonex; 3902.790 oz

total weight: 105,425.298 oz

3.279 tonnes

adjustments:

0

AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 492 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 400 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 588 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 188 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE WITNESS A STRONG 18,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.5847 TONNES. THIS FOLLOWS THURSDAY’S RECORD BREAKING 9.987 TONNES. FOR THE PAST 5 DAYS WE HAVE RECORDED 23.1977 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS. ALL OF THIS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND ALL GOING TO CENTRAL BANKS. LONDON HAS RECORDED OVER 30 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVING ITS SHORES.

JUNE LOST ONLY 3811 CONTRACTS TO 185,744. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH. THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS LOOKING AT JUNE OI.

JULY GAINED 568 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 4190

We had 38 contracts filed for today representing 3800 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 38 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,134 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAY (242 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (38 x 100 oz per contract) equals  2,333,800 OZ  OR 72.5909 TONNES to which we add 9.591 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk//new totals 82.179 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (23,134 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (242 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (38 x 100 oz) which equals  2,333,800 OZ OR 72.5909 TONNES + 9.591 tonnes = 82.179 tonnes

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 82.179 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,223,601.419 oz 69.163 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,815,459.083 oz  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,362,694.427: or 664.469 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,552,764.656 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,316,613oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 600.82tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

// THE MAY 2025  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

MAY 19

INITIAL

0

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2 deposit entries//customer side/eligible

i) Into Delaware 1998.100 oz

ii) Into Stonex 16,144.240 oz

total weight; 18,142.34 oz

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3 withdrawal entries

i)Out of CNT 30,053.750 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 10,971.718 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 650,851.980 oz

toal weight 691,877.458 oz

ADJUSTMENTs 1

customer to dealer CNT 363,257.580 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 217.184million oz/501.490 oz million  or 43.22%

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 168.457 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 50`.490Million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 492 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 51 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 52 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 260,000 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR TODAY. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.

JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 62 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2892 CONTRACTS. JUNE OI REFUSES TO LIQUIDATE

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE OVER 14 MILLION OZ STAND FOR JUNE/AN OFF MONTH

AS IT IS NOW THE FRONT MONTH.

JULY LOST 300 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 104,531

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 138 or 0.690 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 43,236poor//

AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,604 X5,000 oz = 73.020 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (492) AND the number of notices served upon today (138 )x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month:  (14,604) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(492) minus number of notices served upon today (138)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 74.790 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 87.720 MILLION OZ

 New total standing:  87.720 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of MAY.

We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.

There are 168.457million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MAY 19   WITH GOLD UP $46.65 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 47.89 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES

MAY 16   WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES

MAY 15   WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES

MAY 14   WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES

MAY 13   WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES

MAY 12   WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES

MAY 9   WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES

MAY 8   WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES

MAY 7   WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES

MAY 6   WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES

MAY 5   WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES

MAY 2   WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES

MAY 1   WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES

APRIL30   WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES

APRIL29   WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

APRIL28   WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES

APRIL25   WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES

APRIL24   WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES

APRIL23   WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES

APRIL22   WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES

APRIL21   WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES

APRIL17  WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES

APRIL16  WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL15  WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL14  WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES

APRIL11  WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES

/APRIL10  WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 927.62 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

MAY 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.17/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.193 MILLION OZ

MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ

MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ

MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ

MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ

MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ

MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ

MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ

MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ

APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ

APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ

APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ

APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ

APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ

APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ

APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION

APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION

APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION

APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION

APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION

APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION

CLOSING INVENTORY 447.374 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

PETER SCHIFF

Schiff On Metals & Miners: Dollar Bubble Burst Will Humble The Economy

Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 10:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter recently joined Metals and Miners host Gary Gohm to discuss a range of economic topics, from consumer debt to the fragility of the U.S. dollar and the shifting global reserve landscape. He explains how reckless borrowing—by both consumers and governments—ties into the bigger story of unsustainable dollar dominance and its consequences for economic security, inflation, and the gold market. 

Peter opens with a candid take on the psychology of U.S. consumers facing mounting financial strain. He notes that for many deeply in debt, there’s little incentive to curb borrowing when bankruptcy feels inevitable:

And I think that the people who are trying to borrow more money out of desperation, they probably don’t even care that they can’t pay the money back. 

They just want to borrow more. And in fact, once you’ve already borrowed more than you can possibly repay, and you know it’s just a matter of time before you file for bankruptcy, you may as well go out with a real bang. I mean, so you might as well just take out as much additional credit.

So the consumer has no qualms about refinancing a house that is going to go into foreclosure anyway, or maxing out a credit card that he has no intention of paying, or signing up for buy now, pay later, when in his mind it’s ‘buy now, pay never.’

Steering the conversation to the foundation of this unchecked borrowing, Peter highlights the even larger bubble inflating quietly in the background: the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. He argues that it’s this inflation that fuels trade imbalances and the erosion of American manufacturing—not foreign “cheating” or tariffs as some officials claim:

Well, first of all, the biggest bubble of them all is the one in the US dollar and in US treasuries. 

And that’s what’s been enabling these massive trade deficits that Secretary Bessent said are responsible for hollowing out our industrial base, decimating our supply chains, sacrificing our economic security. 

All that stuff is true as to what’s happened, but he’s got the cause wrong. He’s blaming all these problems on foreigners cheating through tariffs and non-tariff barriers. But that’s got nothing to do with it.

Peter then zeroes in on a risk most policymakers won’t acknowledge: the vulnerability of American banks if confronted with a stagflation scenario. He explains that stress tests run by the Federal Reserve ignore the one scenario that could truly expose the banking system’s weaknesses:

Well, it’s extremely exposed. And in fact, you know, stagflation, a combination of a weak economy and rising interest rates, is the one scenario that the Fed never stress tested any of the banks for. 

The Federal Reserve, in its most worst case adverse scenario, where there is a massive recession with high unemployment, they assume that interest rates go back down to zero, and that treasury bonds yields collapse. 

They did not run a stress test where you have a recession with high unemployment, but inflation and interest rates go up, not down. … They’d all fail under a really adverse scenario.

Shifting the focus to where big players are moving their assets, Peter notes that central banks are already well into the process of selling dollars and U.S. government debt in favor of gold. He argues that this transition is still in its early stages, with gold’s price set to climb much higher as a result:

We’re just headed higher to 4,000 and beyond. But gold is what central banks are buying as they are selling dollars. 

They are moving reserves from dollars to gold, which means they’re not buying treasuries either or mortgage backed securities. 

And we’re still early in that process. It’s been going on for a couple of years, but it’s still got a long way to go.

Peter ties his argument together by recalling how the U.S. has used the dollar’s global reserve currency status as a crutch to maintain lifestyles that outstrip domestic production and savings. As the world moves away from the dollar, he warns, Americans will be forced to return to more sustainable habits—producing and saving rather than consuming and borrowing:

The changes that I am referring to have to do with the fact that we’ve been able to get a free ride on the global gravy train. 

We’ve been able to exploit the reserve status of the US dollar to live beyond our means. We’re able to consume as a nation more than we collectively produce, and we’re able to borrow a lot more than we collectively save. 

And so our standard of living, right, our ability to buy stuff, has been enhanced by taking advantage of the dollar’s role. Without the dollar as a reserve currency, we’d have to produce more, which means we’d have to save more.

For more of Peter’s insight, check out his other recent interview on the Mining Network!

2.ALASDAIR MACLEOD…

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

Charlie Garcia: America just imported a mountain of gold, and that should scare you

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-05-15 22:00 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Charlie Garcia
MarketWatch, New York
Thursday, May 15, 2025

What do central banks know that the rest of us don’t?

Something suspicious is happening with gold. Not the kind of suspicion when your neighbor suddenly buys a Ferrari. I mean the kind when a guy in dark glasses unloads mysterious crates at 2 a.m.

In the first two months of 2025, America quietly imported more than 600 tons of gold from London and Switzerland, according to World Gold Council data — enough to make King Midas blush. 

Officially, economists at many major banks waved it away as a statistical oddity. “Relax,” they said. “It’s just bullion banks hoarding gold ahead of tariffs.” 

Sure. And a fleet of black helicopters landing at your neighbor’s barbecue is just the local weather guy testing his equipment.

Maybe it’s nothing. But let’s walk through it slowly. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

END

U.S. government loses its last perfect credit rating

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2025-05-16 19:49 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Elisabeth Buchwald and Tami Luhby
CNN, New York
Friday, May 16, 2025

Moody’s Ratings downgraded the United States’ debt today, stripping the country of its last perfect credit rating. 

The move could rattle financial markets and push up interest rates, potentially creating an additional financial burden for Americans already struggling with tariffs and inflation.

Of the three major credit rating agencies, Moody’ was the lone holdout, maintaining its outstanding rating of AAA for U.S. debt. Moody’s held a perfect credit rating for the United States since 1917.

It now ranks U.S. creditworthiness one notch below that, at Aa1, joining Fitch Ratings and S&P, which lowered their credit ratings for U.S. debt in 2023 and 2011, respectively. …

… For the remainder of the report:

END

Purchase limits have tightened on Costco gold bars as popularity booms

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2025-05-16 19:58 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Mike Snider
USA Today, New York
Thursday, May 15, 2025

Gold has become such a hot commodity that Costco is apparently limiting how much its members can buy.

The warehouse retailer began selling 24-karat gold bars to its members in 2023, with a limit of two bars per person. Now that limit has changed to one per transaction and a maximum of two bars per 24 hours, when you look on the retailer website, as previously reported by Business Insider.

The price for a 1-ounce South African-made gold bar is $3,279.99, much higher than the $2,000 they were going for 19 months ago, shortly after Costco began selling them. 

However, that price increase is understandable as gold prices have risen more than 70% over that time — hitting record highs in April. …

… For the remainder of the report:

Americans rush to sell their gold as price hovers near record

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-05-18 09:00 Section: Daily Dispatches

From Fox Business, New York
Saturday, May 17, 2025

We’re in the middle of the Gold Rush 2.0. But this time folks aren’t making money finding gold — they’re making money selling it.

With gold near an all-time high, selling for over $3,200 an ounce, folks are raiding their jewelry boxes and heading to pawn shops, jewelers, and smelters to turn their little-worn necklaces, watches, bracelets, and earrings into cash.

“Every day we have more customers just coming in, selling their gold, raiding their cabinets and stuff like that, looking for jewelry,” said Sabashden M. Hernandez, who works at family-owned A&M Precious Metals in Los Angeles’ jewelry district. “I have not seen anything like this. I’ve been in this business for about eight years and this is pretty crazy for me.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

4/On LFTV, Andrew Maguire LIVE FROM THE VAULT 223

B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//COCOA

Keep An Eye On Cocoa Prices

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 04:15 AM

Cocoa futures surged as much as 7.9% on Friday to $11,068/ton in New York, approaching record levels once again, as mounting supply-side risks reignite upside price action. Persistent drought conditions across key West African growing regions—despite recent rain—continue to pressure the global production outlook, raising concerns over both mid-crop and main-crop harvests. The deteriorating weather backdrop and slowing port arrivals in top producer Ivory Coast have also reintroduced upward pressure on prices. 

Analysts from BMI, a unit of Fitch Group, wrote last week that bullish price action “continues to be driven by concerns about weather conditions in West Africa weighing on the size and quality of the ongoing harvest.” 

Data from the African Flood and Drought Monitor showed that droughts still cover at least 33% of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, sparking fears about production.

According to a Rabobank note, the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop has been of poor quality so far due to a lack of rain. The mid-crop, the smaller of the country’s two annual cocoa harvests and typically beginning in April, is now projected to reach 400,000 metric tons—down around 9% from last year’s 440,000 MT. 

Traders are monitoring cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports as the slowdown in shipment volumes raises concerns that already tight global supplies could face further pressure. So far this season, deliveries remain about 11% above last year, but the pace of arrivals has noticeably decelerated, signaling supply constraints ahead. 

In New York, cocoa contracts erupted on Friday…

Cocoa prices jumped 18.5% during the week, the largest weekly gain since Nov. 15, 2024. 

Higher cocoa prices will only bring forward demand destruction amongst consumers. 

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.12 PTS OR 0.00%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 12.33 PTS OR 0.05%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 255.09 PTS OR 0.28% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.64%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2123 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2109/ Oil UP TO 61.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.76 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.2123 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2109 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2123 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2109 (CCP MANIPULATED)

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.12 PTS OR 0.00%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 12.33 PTS OR 0.05%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 255.09 PTS OR 0.28%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  100.05// EURO RISES TO 1.1268 UP 120 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FISES TO. +1.486//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.95…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6274/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.651 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.270%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.404

3j Gold at $3243.71 Silver at: 32.60  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 92 /100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.07

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and  64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.95// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.486% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8338 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9399 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.548 UP 11 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.024 UP 12 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.029 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.85

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7535 UP 11 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.172 UP 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.778 UP 3 PTS

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Slide, Yields And Gold Jump As Markets React To Moody’s Downgrade

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 08:30 AM

US equity futures and bond yields are sharply higher across the curve as market react to Moody’s greatly delayed downgrade to US credit on Friday (it follows 14 years after S&P did the same in August 2011), with the USD trading broadly lower, gold higher and macro credit trading notably wider. As of 8am ET, S&P 500 contracts fell 1.0% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.4%, with investors cooling on equities after a five-day winning streak, and up 7 of the past 8 days. Pre-mkt, MegaCap Tech names are down 2-4% with Semis/Cyclicals under pressure. European and Asian shares also dropped. The yield curve is bear steepening with the 30Y yield surpassing 5% and hitting its highest level since Nov 2023 and the USD selling off: the euro rose as much as 1.1% as all major currencies advanced against the greenback. Commodities are mixed with energy/base lower and precious/ags higher. Looking ahead today, there are no major economic data releases. Fed voters Williams, Jefferson, and non-voters Logan, Kashkari and Bostic are scheduled to speak today. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are lower as risk appetite broadly falters (Tesla -3.5%, Nvidia -2.7%, Meta Platforms -1.9%, Alphabet -1.8%, Amazon -1.8%, Apple -1.5%, Microsoft -0.9%). Nvidia is in focus after CEO Jensen Huang showed new technologies from faster chip systems to software aimed at sustaining the AI boom at Computex in Taiwan. Alibaba shares slumped in Asia after a report that the Trump administration has raised concerns over its potential AI deal with Apple. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks including Coinbase, Robinhood and MicroStrategy fall, tracking the price of Bitcoin lower amid the risk-off mood. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) fall 2.3%, following Hong Kong shares lower, after the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has raised concerns over Apple’s potential deal with the Chinese tech giant
• Novavax (NVAX) shares rally 12% after the US FDA approved the drugmaker’s Covid-19 vaccine for adults 65 years and older as well as those aged 12 to 64 years who have at least one medical condition that puts them at a higher risk of severe illness from Covid
• Reddit (RDDT) shares are down 6.4% after the web forum operator is downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, with analysts saying that recent user disruptions are likely to be more permanent as Google “more aggressively” implements AI features in search

Global markets are slower after Friday’s Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 (vs AAA prev), which was attributed to “increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation. While markets have reacted this AM, Goldman notes that Moody’s has had a negative rating outlook since November 2023, and has lagged the other two major rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, in the downgrade to AA+. Bessent comments yesterday are also helping price action, with the Treasury Sec noting that Liberation Day tariffs may be reimposed if countries do not negotiate “in good faith” before the 90 day pause expires on July 9th. 

Monday’s pullback comes after the S&P 500 saw a nearly 20% rally from April lows, and the market was probably ripe for a retreat after such a V-shaped bounce.

Besides the sellin in stocks, we have also seen a concurrent slide in rates, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5.03%, at the highest since November 2023. As Bloomberg notes, the 30-year yield is in an uptrend since the March 2020 low, broke the long-term channel downtrend dating back to 1987 peak in December 2022.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said investors should buy dips triggered by rising yields, as the trade truce between China and the US has lowered the odds of a recession. Among other strategists, Goldman’s David Kostin said Mag 7 stocks are likely to outperform this year, driven by robust earnings growth. RBC’s Lori Calvasina, however, sees more cuts to S&P 500 earnings estimates ahead, and said the market may be “a little ahead of itself from a fundamental perspective.”

“The current level of yields on US Treasuries doesn’t feel out of touch with economic fundamentals,” said Stephane Deo, senior portfolio manager at Eleva Capital in Paris. As for equities, “it feels very normal to me that the market needs a breather and the Moody’s downgrade is good excuse for doing just that.”

With the US deficit in focus, investors will also be parsing Trump’s giant tax and spending package. A key House committee advanced the legislation late Sunday night after Republican hardliners won agreement from party leaders to speed up cuts to Medicaid coverage.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% with technology shares the worst performers, followed by mining and real estate names; Estoxx 50 is down 0.7% with underperforming sectors including consumer discretionary and info tech.

In FX, the Dollar is starting off the week on the backfoot, weighed on by the Moody downgrade on Friday and weekend headlines from Bessent. EUR is leading gains, trading 100 bps higher as FX vols turn bid across G10 pairs with EUR 1m now trading at 8.4vols (+0.9v overnight). JPY is also gaining this morning (+60bps vs USD) as short dated downside remains bid while people add positions over the Kato-Bessent meeting later this week with ~35bp implied gap in USDJPY. Despite the broadly weaker Dollar this morning and the lowest USDCNY fix since early April (7.1916), USDCNH is trading flat after local data came in weaker than expected. Activity weakened in April, reflecting both the negative impact of increased US tariffs and still-soft domestic demand. Our economists now forecast USDCNY to gradually move lower through the year, shifting from a headwind to a tailwind to many EM currencies, for which the cross is an important anchor. EM currencies that can benefit the most in this environment are those (i) with a larger undervaluation signal, (ii) with a positive beta to CNY and to risk more broadly, (iii) where conversion of USD deposits can have large flow impacts, and (iv) where carry contributes positively to total returns.

In credit, macro credit is opening the first trading session of the week notably wider in sympathy with equity futures, after closing Friday a touch firmer in an underperformance relative to equities in the risk-on tape. As a whole, last week saw CDX IG move over -7bps tighter and CDX HY rise nearly +1.75pt following positive developments on the US/China trade tariff negotiations front. Sharp downward price action in the distressed credit universe (NFE Inc, LINTA, SAGLEN) were front and center throughout the week on the micro front, some of which impacted CDX HY curves and led to some curve steepening. With CDX spreads back in the ~55bps neighborhood, the desk saw a resumption of hedge-setting demand both in one-delta and vol — with the latter continuing to be better bid, particularly tail.

In rates, treasuries near lows into the early US session, after extending Friday’s late selloff on the back of Moody’s Ratings stripping the US government of its top credit rating. Leading the selloff, 30-year yields top 5%, steepening the curve. 10-year Treasury yields advanced seven basis points to 4.54% and their 30-year equivalents rose about eight basis points to 5.02%. European rates are also higher while stock futures are under pressure ahead of the cash open. US yields are 1bp to 8bp cheaper across maturities, with 2s10s curve steeper by ~6bp, 5s30s by ~4bp; 10-year is near 4.55%, higher by 7bp since Friday’s close, with Gilts faring worse than their German peers. UK 30-year yields rise 9 bps to 5.49%. This week’s Treasury auctions include $16 billion 20-year new issue Wednesday and $18 billion 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday. 

In commodities, oil prices are lower ahead of a phone call between US President Trump and Russian President Putin later on Monday. WTI is down 0.6% at $62.10 a barrel. Meanwhile, gold rose 1.2% or $36 to around $3,240/oz, with appetite for the haven asset boosted by concerns about the US economic outlook.

Today’s US economic data calendar includes April leading index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (8:30am, 2:45pm), Jefferson and Williams (8:45am), Logan (1:15pm) and Kashkari (1:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1.0%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.4%
• Russell 2000 mini -1.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 -0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield +7 basis points at 4.55%
• VIX +2.5 points at 19.74
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.6% at 1224.79
• euro +0.9% at $1.1267
• WTI crude -0.6% at $62.14/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump said he would be willing to travel to China to speak with Chinese President Xi regarding foreign policy and economic issues. It was separately reported that President Trump said Walmart (WMT) should stop trying to blame tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain, while he added that between Walmart and China, they should “eat the tariffs” and not charge valued customers anything.
• US VP Vance said Europe is an important ally of the US but disagreements on trade, while he hoped the meeting in Rome with European Commission President Von der Leyen would lead to long-term trade negotiations and trade advantages.
• US VP Vance discussed with Canadian PM Carney the shared interests and goals of the US and Canada including fair trade policies and the continued lasting relationship between the two countries.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said regarding new tariff rates that countries are coming up with very good proposals with few exceptions and the timing of deals depends on whether countries are negotiating in good faith, while he thinks they will do a lot of regional deals. Furthermore, he said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• US-China trade truce and China’s prior defiant stance in negotiating with the US is said to have convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own negotiations with the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg.
• Australian PM Albanese said he is “up for a deal” with Europe on free trade following years of trade discussions, according to Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse, while participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data. ASX 200 declined with underperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the downside stemmed ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision in which money markets are pricing around a 99% likelihood of a 25bps cut. Nikkei 225 retreated amid currency-related headwinds while the data calendar for Japan is very light to start the week and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida stuck to the script in which he maintained the rate hike signal should prices improve as forecast. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid the glum mood across the Asia-Pac region but with the downside in the mainland limited after mixed Chinese data in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace.

Top Asian News

• Nomura raises China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 4.5% (prev. 4.0%).
• South Korean presidential front-runner Lee said ties with Russia and China are also important, while he also stated that South Korea should not go all in on the alliance with the US and there is no need to rush a trade agreement with the US.
• US White House and Congressional officials reportedly scrutinised in recent months Apple’s (AAPL) plan to strike a deal to make Alibaba’s (9988 HK) AI available on iPhones in China.
• China’s NDRC cuts retail fuel prices by CNY 230/t for Gasoline, CNY 220/t for Diesel; effective Tuesday 20th May.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) opened lower across the board and have been trading sideways throughout the morning. Pressure which follows on from a mostly negative APAC session, stemming from Moody’s downgrading the US. European sectors opened mixed but now display a mostly negative picture. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Insurance and then Healthcare. Real Estate lags given the yield environment.

Top European News

• European Commission cuts EZ GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9% (prev. 1.3% in Nov); sees 2026 growth at 1.4% (prev. 1.6%); risks tilted to the downside; 2025 Inflation seen at 2.1%, 2026 seen at 1.7%. Growth outlook revised significantly downwards amid weaker trade outlook and trade policy uncertainty. EZ growth forecast based on assumption of 10% US tariff on all EU goods, 25% on steel and aluminium on cars, no tariffs on pharma and chips.
• UK and EU Deal: Should work towards association of UK to the EU ERASMUS+ programme; continue efforts to support travel and cultural exchange; work towards a balanced youth experience scheme on terms to be mutually agreed. Should explore UK’s possible participation in EU’s internal electricity market. Work towards establishing a link between carbon markets.
• “Sky News has been told Brussels has dropped demands to link the duration of the agrifood deal to the one for fish – a key [UK PM] Starmer ask”, according to Sky News’ Coates.
• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday on a major post-Brexit reconciliation in which they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”, although some sticking points were said to remain with talks ‘going down to the wire‘, according to FT. More recently, Sky’s Coates posted “Sky News understands there was a late breakthrough on the deal and that you expect news on it mid morning. Talks went well post midnight last night”.
• EU and UK negotiators reportedly reached an outline deal to strengthen ties; deal needs political sign off, according to Bloomberg sources.
• EU capitals have reportedly agreed to launch a EUR 150bln loans-for-arms fund which will be backed by the bloc’s joint budget, via FT citing sources; follows political agreement being secured this morning. Formal agreement expected on Wednesday.
• ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger, while he currently sees no case for a half-point cut in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he said the Euro area may be exposed to a negative economic shock in the short term which may be followed by a positive shock in 2026 and 2027, according to FT.
• ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now, while she commented it is to be seen what will happen regarding a June cut and noted that declining energy prices and slowing global growth may lower inflation in the short term but could reverse in the medium term.
• Portugal’s incumbent centre-right party won the election with around 32% of the votes, while PM Montenegro said after the election win that another minority government is the most likely option.
• Portugal will appeal to the European Commission to pressure France over cross-border electricity links after a blackout last month, according to FT.
• Polish pro-EU candidate Trzaskowski was narrowly ahead in Poland’s first round presidential vote and will enter a run-off with right-wing rival Nawrocki.
• Fitch affirmed Greece at BBB: Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.

FX

• USD is very much on the backfoot vs. peers after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating, whereby the rating agency warning of government debt and a widening budget deficit. These concerns have been heightened by news that the House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote on the passage of the bill as soon as this week. Concerns over the final price tag of the bill has triggered a “sell US” theme at the start of the week. Data docket today is light, but Fed speak is heavy today with Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan & Kashkari all due on the docket. DXY has slipped below last week’s low at 100.27.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD and at the top of the G10 leaderboard as traders seek a liquid alternative to the USD. Newsflow out of the Eurozone over the weekend has mainly centered over ECB speak with ECB’s Wunsch stating that the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger. Elsewhere, ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1273, currently near highs.
• JPY has been a beneficiary of the softer USD and downbeat risk sentiment with USD/JPY back below the 145 mark. Newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side following reporting late last week that Japan is holding out for a better trade deal with the US, which would include a full removal of 25% tariffs.
• GBP is one of the better performers across the majors with sentiment underpinned by news that the EU and UK have agreed an outline of a deal which will strengthen ties between both sides. As part of a post-Brexit reconciliation deal, they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”. Cable has eclipsed last week’s best at 1.3360 with a session peak at 1.3382.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD but to a lesser degree than most peers alongside the subdued risk tone. Chinese data was mixed, in which Industrial Production topped forecast, Retail Sales disappointed and House Prices continued to contract Y/Y. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s RBA rate decision with the central bank widely-expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1916 vs exp. 7.2057 (Prev. 7.1938).

Fixed Income

• USTs have started the week on the backfoot as the complex reacts to Moody’s cutting the US by one notch, joining S&P (cut August 2011) and Fitch (cut in 2023, after covid), with an AA1 rating. A cut which sparked on Sunday a sell-US trade. The announcement by Moody’s came amid US House Republicans blocking the passage of the Republican tax/spending bill due to concern that it would lift the short-run deficit. USTs themselves at the bottom of a 109-23 to 110-08 band, slipping from Friday’s 110-10+ close. Ahead, the US session is dominated by Fed speak, featuring Bostic, Williams, Logan and Kashkari.
• Bunds are also lower, with price action following the losses seen in the US. But there has been some updates for the bloc specifically, the main one of course being the EU-UK reset talks which appear to have gone well (see Gilts below for more). Elsewhere, political developments with the EU have been net-positive, but some uncertainties/risk points remain. Bunds just off the low of a 129.79 to 130.41 band, downside that accelerated as Friday’s 130.11 trough was lost. Support next at 129.59 from May 12th.
• Gilts are pressured and lagging peers amid the EU-UK updates, and also with focus on a 30yr syndication. The main development this morning was indications and since confirmation that there was a late-doors breakthrough on EU-UK reset talks, and an update is expected mid-morning once political sign off is attained. A press conference featuring UK PM Starmer and EU Commission President von der Leyen is currently set for 12:30BST. Gilts underperforming and lower by over 80 ticks at worst.

Commodities

• Subdued trade across the crude complex amid the broader downbeat sentiment across markets emanating from Moody’s downgrading the US’ rating, for the first time in over a century, from AAA to Aa1 – which effectively put it in line with the ratings by S&P and Fitch. In geopolitics, focus will be on a looming Trump-Putin call later today. Brent trades in a USD 64.69-65.60/bbl parameter.
• Positive trade across precious metals amid a leg lower in the dollar following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s, which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse. Spot gold rose from a USD 3,206.72/oz low to test USD 3,250/oz to the upside.
• Little action was seen across base metals amid the overnight release of mixed Chinese data, in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,435.25-9,520.10/t range.
• EU will need to spend at least EUR 10bln more than last year to refill its gas reserves ahead of winter, after the first cold season in four years left its reserves heavily depleted, according to FT.
• Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia detained a Liberia-flagged oil tanker after it left an Estonian Baltic Sea port.
• Oman’s Energy and Minerals Ministry signed an agreement with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to amend and extend the Block 53 exploration and production sharing agreement.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu says “Israel will ‘take control of all’ of Gaza Strip”, via AFP.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister says Iran-US nuclear talks will fail if the US insists on zero enrichment, according to NourNews.
• Israeli airstrikes killed at least 100 in Gaza as negotiators sought a ceasefire, while Israel’s military said it began a wide ground operation in northern and southern Gaza.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office announced that Israel will allow the entry of a basic quantity of food into Gaza to prevent a hunger crisis.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Gaza talks in Doha now include ending the war or a truce and hostage deal, while it added that the end of the war must include Gaza demilitarisation, Hamas exile and the release of all hostages. However, a senior Israeli official said there was little progress in Gaza talks that include ending the war.
• Hamas confirmed a new round of ceasefire talks with Israel in Doha and said both sides are discussing all issues without preconditions, according to an official cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes last week killed the de facto commander of Hamas in Gaza, Muhammad Sinwar, according to reports by Israeli press on Sunday.
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed to target Israel’s Ben Gurion airport with a ballistic missile, although Israel’s military said it successfully intercepted the missile from Yemen, while Houthis announced on Sunday evening that it planned to target Israeli airports in the coming few hours.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian questioned whether they should believe US President Trump, who speaks of peace and threatens Iran at the same time, while he added that Tehran will continue nuclear talks with the US but is not afraid of threats.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said US President Trump’s comments during his regional visit are an embarrassment and that the US must and will leave the region, while he also commented that Israel is a dangerous and deadly cancerous tumour which must be uprooted.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, while he will speak to Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO members after. However, it was later reported that UK PM Starmer spoke with leaders of the US, Italy, France and Germany regarding the situation in Ukraine and catastrophic costs of the war to both sides, while they also discussed the use of sanctions if Russia failed to engage seriously in a ceasefire and peace talks.
• US President Trump said he thinks that they will make a deal with Russian President Putin and said he will use leverage against Putin if he has to, while he added that they have to meet and thinks they will probably schedule it, according to Fox News.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and welcomed the prisoner exchange agreement reached, while Rubio emphasised President Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the violence. Furthermore, Lavrov discussed with Rubio further contacts between Russia and the US, while Lavrov noted the positive role of the US in the resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks.
• Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said preparations are underway for a Putin-Trump conversation, while it stated that a Putin-Zelensky meeting could happen but only if certain agreements are reached.
• Russian negotiators at Istanbul talks demanded that Ukraine withdraw troops from all Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow before a ceasefire can start, while they also demanded international recognition that five Ukrainian regions are Russian, neutrality for Ukraine, and no reparations, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the Pope’s inauguration.
• Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a long-lasting drone attack. It was also reported that Ukrainian military intelligence agency said Russia plans to conduct a ‘training and combat’ launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile late on Sunday to intimidate Ukraine and the West.

Geopolitics: Other

• Turkish President Erdogan said it is possible to say that US sanctions on the Turkish defence sector have eased somewhat, while he added that NATO allies US and Turkey should not have restrictions in the defence sector.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said it does not rule out China launching political warfare to disrupt public morale ahead of President Lai’s inauguration anniversary on Tuesday.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Apr Leading Index, est. -0.94%, prior -0.7%

Central Banks Speakers

• 8:30 am: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
• 8:45 am: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote, Bostic Moderates
• 8:45 am: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Discussion
• 1:15 pm: Fed’s Logan Gives Remarks, Moderates Panel
• 1:30 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Q&A
• 2:45 pm: Fed’s Bostic on Bloomberg TV

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In terms of heartwarming domestic news this morning, regular readers will remember my daughter Maisie suffered from Perthes disease between the ages of 5 and 7, spending months on crutches and then over a year in a wheelchair after a major operation. Her hip ball had disintegrated and there was no guarantee it would regrow or would regrow in the right shape. It could have been a childhood of limping and constant pain. However we were fortunate it did regrow while in the chair and over the last 2 and a half years she’s got stronger and stronger with the only thing we don’t allow being trampolining. Therefore imagine our immense surprise when last week she got picked to represent her school at the long jump in an U9 event with five other schools! I couldn’t have imagined anything less likely three years ago. My wife and I were a bit nervous about letting her do it but in the end she came second. She swims four times a week for her artistic swimming club and I can only think this has done her a world of good in terms of strength. So we were delighted for her, especially given all she went through.

In terms of what the market has been through in recent weeks, I think we could all do with a lie down and there are some hopes of that this week given the scarcity of front line data. However as we know the headlines will keep coming, especially with regards to trade.

It‘s likely that fiscal developments in Washington will take centre stage with the House expected to vote on its reconciliation package this week just as Moody’s removed the US’s last remaining triple-A rating late on Friday night. As our economists discussed last week (see “Tax bill details suggest still-elevated deficits in the near term’), though the specific components of additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what they had previously outlined (see “US outlook: Tariff-struck”), the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with our top-line deficit assumptions. Assuming House Republicans are able to resolve their outstanding policy disagreements and vote on the tax package this week, the Senate will then start to mark up the bill, where even more policy disagreements await. One thing stands out though, and that is that at this stage there are no signs of any serious deficit restraint.

On that topic, Moody’s cut the US credit rating on Friday night from Aaa to Aa1 (stable outlook). This is a major symbolic move as Moody’s were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating. Moody’s have had them on watch since November 2023 and if there is going to be a change then it tends to happen within 12-18 months so this news shouldn’t have been unexpected. Remember S&P was the first to downgrade the US from AAA back in August 2011 which brought a brief market panic at the time. The S&P 500 fell -6.7% on August 8th (the Monday after the cut) while Treasuries actually rallied 20bps on a flight to quality bid. A slightly different reaction this time given they are “only” playing catch-up on one hand, but with debt sustainability now more of a concern on the other. 10yr USTs spiked +4bps in very late trading on Friday on the news. This morning 10 and 30yr USTs are another +3.8bps and +5.2bps higher, respectively, with the latter now at 5% again and +10bps higher than just before the announcement late on Friday. If we stay at these levels this would be a higher yield than that seen at the worst close after Liberation Day. In fact it’s only just over 10bps below the highest point in 2023 when inflation concerns were still bubbling. Prior to that you’d have to go back to 2007 to see 30yr yields higher than current levels.

S&P 500 (-1.0%) and NASDAQ (-1.27%) futures are also weaker on the news along with the Dollar (-0.26%). Mixed China data isn’t helping the general Asia mood with Retail Sales growth slowing to +5.1% y/y in April, falling short of Bloomberg’s forecast of +5.8% and down from +5.9% in the previous month. Fixed-asset investment for the first four months of this year increased by +4.0%, slightly below the anticipated +4.2%. The real estate sector continues to exert downward pressure on fixed asset investment, with a year-on-year decline of -10.3% as of April. Nevertheless, industrial production has exceeded expectations, growing by +6.1% y/y in April, compared to the expected +5.7%, although this represents a slowdown from the +7.7% increase recorded last month.

In the region, the KOSPI is the most affected equity market, down by -1.23% this morning, while the Nikkei (-0.74%), the Hang Seng (-0.49%), the CSI (-0.38%), and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.62%) are also lower.

The flash global PMIs for May released on Thursday will be the main data focal point this week given that it should fully cover a period of trade uncertainty. European numbers are expected to edge up with US numbers broadly flat. 

Elsewhere inflation in Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday – preview here) and Japan (Friday – preview here) will be of note. Other things to watch are the RBA decision tomorrow, where DB expect a 25bps cut (preview here), the account of the April ECB decision, the German Ifo and US jobless claims, all on Thursday. This week’s jobless claims corresponds to payrolls survey week so it will allow us to refine our current +125k forecast for May. The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but there’s not a lot of high profile releases. There are though plenty of central bank speakers and these are also highlighted in that calendar. Many are speaking at the Atlanta Fed’s annual Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, Florida which starts today through to Thursday. Other things to note are the UK-EU summit will be in London today. Then tomorrow, G7 finance ministers and central bankers convene in Canada (through May 22) and the EU’s foreign and defence ministers meet in Brussels.

Recapping last week now and risk markets had another strong run with the S&P 500 up +5.27% as it advanced for all five days to post its second best weekly gain since 2023. The bulk of its gains came last Monday (+3.27%) as the US and China dramatically slashed their reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days. The Mag-7 (+9.30% on the week) led the recovery, with tech stocks also helped by a series of deals coming out of Trump’s Middle East tour. On Friday, Trump announced that the US would be “sending letters out” to 150 countries on its new tariff rates over the next two to three weeks. US equities responded positively to the news, with the S&P 500 up +0.70% on Friday. Although Bessent did explain to NBC over the weekend that those not negotiating in good faith will receive the letter with the rate announced on Liberation Day.

The positive backdrop last week saw the VIX index post a sixth consecutive weekly decline (-4.66pts) to its lowest level since mid-February at 17.24. Other risk assets also saw a strong week, with US HY credit spreads falling -38bps to 205bps. The gains were more moderate in Europe, with the STOXX 600 rising +2.10% (+0.42% Friday), while the DAX rose +1.14% (+0.30% Friday) to a new record high. By contrast, gold lost ground amid the risk-on mood, seeing its biggest weekly decline since November (-3.65%).

In the rates space investors pared back their expectations of Fed rate cuts, with the amount of cuts priced by December falling -16.5bps to 49bps on the week. This marks the first time since February that the market expects less than two Fed rate cuts in 2025 and the move came despite softer than expected US CPI and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday. By contrast, the latest U. Mich survey data showed 1-year median inflation expectations shooting up to +7.3% (vs +6.5% expected), even as consumer sentiment fell to its second lowest level on record. 10yr Treasury yields rose for a third week running, up +10.0bps (+4.7bps Friday) to 4.48%, while 30yr yields rose +11.0bps to their highest weekly close since January at 4.94%. As discussed above, friday’s sell off in Treasuries was mostly due to a late spike on the Moody’s US downgrade news.

Lastly, European bonds saw more muted moves, with 10yr bund yields up +2.8bps to 2.59% (-3.1bps Friday), but OAT (-0.2bps) and BTP (-1.3bps) yields were marginally lower over the week as sovereign spreads continued to grind lower.

2b European opening report

Moody start to the week in sell-America trade after US AAA rating stripped; ES -1.2% – Newsquawk US Market Open

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 05:52 AM

• Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative and warned of rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level.
• The House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote as soon as this week.
• European bourses lower and US equity futures slip in an initial reaction to the latest Moody’s downgrade; ES -1.2%.
• USD shunned as Moody’s downgrade spooks markets, GBP cheers UK-EU “reset” deal.
• Moody start for bonds after the US downgrade, Gilts lag on Brexit updates and into 30yr syndication.
• Downbeat trade across oil contracts but precious metals lifted; spot gold eyes USD 3,250/oz.
• Looking ahead, US Leading Index Change, EU-UK Talks, Speakers including Fed’s Bostic, Williams, Logan & Kashkari. Holiday Closure in Canada.

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TRADE/TARIFFS

• US President Trump said he would be willing to travel to China to speak with Chinese President Xi regarding foreign policy and economic issues. It was separately reported that President Trump said Walmart (WMT) should stop trying to blame tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain, while he added that between Walmart and China, they should “eat the tariffs” and not charge valued customers anything.
• US VP Vance said Europe is an important ally of the US but disagreements on trade, while he hoped the meeting in Rome with European Commission President Von der Leyen would lead to long-term trade negotiations and trade advantages.
• US VP Vance discussed with Canadian PM Carney the shared interests and goals of the US and Canada including fair trade policies and the continued lasting relationship between the two countries.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said regarding new tariff rates that countries are coming up with very good proposals with few exceptions and the timing of deals depends on whether countries are negotiating in good faith, while he thinks they will do a lot of regional deals. Furthermore, he said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• US-China trade truce and China’s prior defiant stance in negotiating with the US is said to have convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own negotiations with the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg.
• Australian PM Albanese said he is “up for a deal” with Europe on free trade following years of trade discussions, according to Bloomberg.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) opened lower across the board and have been trading sideways throughout the morning. Pressure which follows on from a mostly negative APAC session, stemming from Moody’s downgrading the US.
• European sectors opened mixed but now display a mostly negative picture. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Insurance and then Healthcare. Real Estate lags given the yield environment.
• US equity futures are entirely in the red, as the region reacts to Moody’s downgrading the US from AAA to AA1; outlook Stable from Negative. The data docket ahead is very light, only Leading Index Change is scheduled. Therefore, more focus will be on a slew of Fed speakers which include; Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan and Kashkari.
• JPMorgan upgrades EM equities to Overweight from Neutral.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is very much on the backfoot vs. peers after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating, whereby the rating agency warning of government debt and a widening budget deficit. These concerns have been heightened by news that the House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote on the passage of the bill as soon as this week. Concerns over the final price tag of the bill has triggered a “sell US” theme at the start of the week. Data docket today is light, but Fed speak is heavy today with Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan & Kashkari all due on the docket. DXY has slipped below last week’s low at 100.27.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD and at the top of the G10 leaderboard as traders seek a liquid alternative to the USD. Newsflow out of the Eurozone over the weekend has mainly centered over ECB speak with ECB’s Wunsch stating that the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger. Elsewhere, ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1273, currently near highs.
• JPY has been a beneficiary of the softer USD and downbeat risk sentiment with USD/JPY back below the 145 mark. Newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side following reporting late last week that Japan is holding out for a better trade deal with the US, which would include a full removal of 25% tariffs.
• GBP is one of the better performers across the majors with sentiment underpinned by news that the EU and UK have agreed an outline of a deal which will strengthen ties between both sides. As part of a post-Brexit reconciliation deal, they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”. Cable has eclipsed last week’s best at 1.3360 with a session peak at 1.3382.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD but to a lesser degree than most peers alongside the subdued risk tone. Chinese data was mixed, in which Industrial Production topped forecast, Retail Sales disappointed and House Prices continued to contract Y/Y. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s RBA rate decision with the central bank widely-expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1916 vs exp. 7.2057 (Prev. 7.1938).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs have started the week on the backfoot as the complex reacts to Moody’s cutting the US by one notch, joining S&P (cut August 2011) and Fitch (cut in 2023, after covid), with an AA1 rating. A cut which sparked on Sunday a sell-US trade. The announcement by Moody’s came amid US House Republicans blocking the passage of the Republican tax/spending bill due to concern that it would lift the short-run deficit. USTs themselves at the bottom of a 109-23 to 110-08 band, slipping from Friday’s 110-10+ close. Ahead, the US session is dominated by Fed speak, featuring Bostic, Williams, Logan and Kashkari.
• Bunds are also lower, with price action following the losses seen in the US. But there has been some updates for the bloc specifically, the main one of course being the EU-UK reset talks which appear to have gone well (see Gilts below for more). Elsewhere, political developments with the EU have been net-positive, but some uncertainties/risk points remain. Bunds just off the low of a 129.79 to 130.41 band, downside that accelerated as Friday’s 130.11 trough was lost. Support next at 129.59 from May 12th.
• Gilts are pressured and lagging peers amid the EU-UK updates, and also with focus on a 30yr syndication. The main development this morning was indications and since confirmation that there was a late-doors breakthrough on EU-UK reset talks, and an update is expected mid-morning once political sign off is attained. A press conference featuring UK PM Starmer and EU Commission President von der Leyen is currently set for 12:30BST. Gilts underperforming and lower by over 80 ticks at worst.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Subdued trade across the crude complex amid the broader downbeat sentiment across markets emanating from Moody’s downgrading the US’ rating, for the first time in over a century, from AAA to Aa1 – which effectively put it in line with the ratings by S&P and Fitch. In geopolitics, focus will be on a looming Trump-Putin call later today. Brent trades in a USD 64.69-65.60/bbl parameter.
• Positive trade across precious metals amid a leg lower in the dollar following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s, which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse. Spot gold rose from a USD 3,206.72/oz low to test USD 3,250/oz to the upside.
• Little action was seen across base metals amid the overnight release of mixed Chinese data, in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,435.25-9,520.10/t range.
• EU will need to spend at least EUR 10bln more than last year to refill its gas reserves ahead of winter, after the first cold season in four years left its reserves heavily depleted, according to FT.
• Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia detained a Liberia-flagged oil tanker after it left an Estonian Baltic Sea port.
• Oman’s Energy and Minerals Ministry signed an agreement with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to amend and extend the Block 53 exploration and production sharing agreement.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK House Price Rightmove MM (May) 0.6% (Prev. 1.4%); YY (May) 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%)
• EU HICP Final YY (Apr) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%); HICP Final MM (Apr) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• European Commission cuts EZ GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9% (prev. 1.3% in Nov); sees 2026 growth at 1.4% (prev. 1.6%); risks tilted to the downside; 2025 Inflation seen at 2.1%, 2026 seen at 1.7%. Growth outlook revised significantly downwards amid weaker trade outlook and trade policy uncertainty. EZ growth forecast based on assumption of 10% US tariff on all EU goods, 25% on steel and aluminium on cars, no tariffs on pharma and chips.
• UK and EU Deal: Should work towards association of UK to the EU ERASMUS+ programme; continue efforts to support travel and cultural exchange; work towards a balanced youth experience scheme on terms to be mutually agreed. Should explore UK’s possible participation in EU’s internal electricity market. Work towards establishing a link between carbon markets.
• “Sky News has been told Brussels has dropped demands to link the duration of the agrifood deal to the one for fish – a key [UK PM] Starmer ask”, according to Sky News’ Coates.
• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday on a major post-Brexit reconciliation in which they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”, although some sticking points were said to remain with talks ‘going down to the wire‘, according to FT. More recently, Sky’s Coates posted “Sky News understands there was a late breakthrough on the deal and that you expect news on it mid morning. Talks went well post midnight last night”.
• EU and UK negotiators reportedly reached an outline deal to strengthen ties; deal needs political sign off, according to Bloomberg sources.
• EU capitals have reportedly agreed to launch a EUR 150bln loans-for-arms fund which will be backed by the bloc’s joint budget, via FT citing sources; follows political agreement being secured this morning. Formal agreement expected on Wednesday.
• ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger, while he currently sees no case for a half-point cut in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he said the Euro area may be exposed to a negative economic shock in the short term which may be followed by a positive shock in 2026 and 2027, according to FT.
• ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now, while she commented it is to be seen what will happen regarding a June cut and noted that declining energy prices and slowing global growth may lower inflation in the short term but could reverse in the medium term.
• Portugal’s incumbent centre-right party won the election with around 32% of the votes, while PM Montenegro said after the election win that another minority government is the most likely option.
• Portugal will appeal to the European Commission to pressure France over cross-border electricity links after a blackout last month, according to FT.
• Polish pro-EU candidate Trzaskowski was narrowly ahead in Poland’s first round presidential vote and will enter a run-off with right-wing rival Nawrocki.
• Fitch affirmed Greece at BBB: Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu says “Israel will ‘take control of all’ of Gaza Strip”, via AFP.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister says Iran-US nuclear talks will fail if the US insists on zero enrichment, according to NourNews.
• Israeli airstrikes killed at least 100 in Gaza as negotiators sought a ceasefire, while Israel’s military said it began a wide ground operation in northern and southern Gaza.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office announced that Israel will allow the entry of a basic quantity of food into Gaza to prevent a hunger crisis.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Gaza talks in Doha now include ending the war or a truce and hostage deal, while it added that the end of the war must include Gaza demilitarisation, Hamas exile and the release of all hostages. However, a senior Israeli official said there was little progress in Gaza talks that include ending the war.
• Hamas confirmed a new round of ceasefire talks with Israel in Doha and said both sides are discussing all issues without preconditions, according to an official cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes last week killed the de facto commander of Hamas in Gaza, Muhammad Sinwar, according to reports by Israeli press on Sunday.
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed to target Israel’s Ben Gurion airport with a ballistic missile, although Israel’s military said it successfully intercepted the missile from Yemen, while Houthis announced on Sunday evening that it planned to target Israeli airports in the coming few hours.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian questioned whether they should believe US President Trump, who speaks of peace and threatens Iran at the same time, while he added that Tehran will continue nuclear talks with the US but is not afraid of threats.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said US President Trump’s comments during his regional visit are an embarrassment and that the US must and will leave the region, while he also commented that Israel is a dangerous and deadly cancerous tumour which must be uprooted.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, while he will speak to Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO members after. However, it was later reported that UK PM Starmer spoke with leaders of the US, Italy, France and Germany regarding the situation in Ukraine and catastrophic costs of the war to both sides, while they also discussed the use of sanctions if Russia failed to engage seriously in a ceasefire and peace talks.
• US President Trump said he thinks that they will make a deal with Russian President Putin and said he will use leverage against Putin if he has to, while he added that they have to meet and thinks they will probably schedule it, according to Fox News.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and welcomed the prisoner exchange agreement reached, while Rubio emphasised President Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the violence. Furthermore, Lavrov discussed with Rubio further contacts between Russia and the US, while Lavrov noted the positive role of the US in the resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks.
• Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said preparations are underway for a Putin-Trump conversation, while it stated that a Putin-Zelensky meeting could happen but only if certain agreements are reached.
• Russian negotiators at Istanbul talks demanded that Ukraine withdraw troops from all Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow before a ceasefire can start, while they also demanded international recognition that five Ukrainian regions are Russian, neutrality for Ukraine, and no reparations, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the Pope’s inauguration.
• Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a long-lasting drone attack. It was also reported that Ukrainian military intelligence agency said Russia plans to conduct a ‘training and combat’ launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile late on Sunday to intimidate Ukraine and the West.

OTHER

• Turkish President Erdogan said it is possible to say that US sanctions on the Turkish defence sector have eased somewhat, while he added that NATO allies US and Turkey should not have restrictions in the defence sector.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said it does not rule out China launching political warfare to disrupt public morale ahead of President Lai’s inauguration anniversary on Tuesday.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a little weaker and trades just above the USD 103k mark; Ethereum posts deeper losses, -5% last.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse, while participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data.
• ASX 200 declined with underperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the downside stemmed ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision in which money markets are pricing around a 99% likelihood of a 25bps cut.
• Nikkei 225 retreated amid currency-related headwinds while the data calendar for Japan is very light to start the week and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida stuck to the script in which he maintained the rate hike signal should prices improve as forecast.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid the glum mood across the Asia-Pac region but with the downside in the mainland limited after mixed Chinese data in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Nomura raises China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 4.5% (prev. 4.0%).
• South Korean presidential front-runner Lee said ties with Russia and China are also important, while he also stated that South Korea should not go all in on the alliance with the US and there is no need to rush a trade agreement with the US.
• US White House and Congressional officials reportedly scrutinised in recent months Apple’s (AAPL) plan to strike a deal to make Alibaba’s (9988 HK) AI available on iPhones in China.
• China’s NDRC cuts retail fuel prices by CNY 230/t for Gasoline, CNY 220/t for Diesel; effective Tuesday 20th May.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Apr) 6.1% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 7.7%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Apr) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.9%)
• Chinese Unemployment Rate Urban Area (Apr) 5.1% (Prev. 5.2%)
• Chinese Urban Investment (YTD) YY (Apr) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
• Chinese House Prices MM (Apr) 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%); YY (Apr) -4.0% (Prev. -4.5%)

2c Asian opening report

Stocks hit with ES -1.0% after Moody’s strips US AAA rating; Trump-Putin call expected – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 02:03 AM

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse (ES -1.1%).
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level.
• The House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote as soon as this week.
• Chinese Industrial Production topped forecasts, Retail Sales disappointed, House Prices continued to contract Y/Y.
• USD is slightly softer vs. peers, EUR/USD stalled just shy of 1.12, Cable sits around the 1.33 mark, JPY marginally outperforms peers.
• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday to a major post-Brexit reconciliation, according to the FT.
• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Leading Index Change, EU-UK Talks, Speakers including Fed’s Bostic, Williams, Logan & Kashkari, Supply from the EU.

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished with mild gains on Friday but with the upside capped amid thin newsflow while participants also digested several data releases including import/export prices which surprisingly rose, albeit marginally, while housing data and UoM disappointed.
• SPX +0.70% at 5,958, NDX +0.43% at 21,428, DJI +0.78% at 42,655, RUT +0.89% at 2,113.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US President Trump said he would be willing to travel to China to speak with Chinese President Xi regarding foreign policy and economic issues. It was separately reported that President Trump said Walmart (WMT) should stop trying to blame tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain, while he added that between Walmart and China, they should “eat the tariffs” and not charge valued customers anything.
• US VP Vance said Europe is an important ally of the US but disagreements on trade, while he hoped the meeting in Rome with European Commission President Von der Leyen would lead to long-term trade negotiations and trade advantages.
• US VP Vance discussed with Canadian PM Carney the shared interests and goals of the US and Canada including fair trade policies and the continued lasting relationship between the two countries.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said regarding new tariff rates that countries are coming up with very good proposals with few exceptions and the timing of deals depends on whether countries are negotiating in good faith, while he thinks they will do a lot of regional deals. Furthermore, he said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• US-China trade truce and China’s prior defiant stance in negotiating with the US is said to have convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own negotiations with the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg.
• Australian PM Albanese said he is “up for a deal” with Europe on free trade following years of trade discussions, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said it is almost everyone’s consensus that the Fed should cut rates sooner rather than later, while he added that Fed Chair Powell “will probably blow it again”.
• Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative and warned of rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he doesn’t put much credence in Moody’s when asked about the US credit downgrade and thinks Moody’s is a lagging indicator, while he said the US will grow GDP faster than debt and they are determined to bringing spending down and growing the US economy, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• US House Panel approved the Trump tax cut bill, which sets up a possible vote on passage this week.
• Kentucky Governor announced that at least 14 died in the wake of severe storms and the death toll is expected to increase.
• FBI said a bomb explosion outside a fertility clinic on Saturday, which killed one person and injured four others, was an “intentional act of terrorism”, and it later identified the suspect who was said to have ‘nihilistic’ views and attempted to stream the bombing.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse, while participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data.
• ASX 200 declined with underperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the downside stemmed ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision in which money markets are pricing around a 99% likelihood of a 25bps cut.
• Nikkei 225 retreated amid currency-related headwinds while the data calendar for Japan is very light to start the week and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida stuck to the script in which he maintained the rate hike signal should prices improve as forecast.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid the glum mood across the Asia-Pac region but with the downside in the mainland limited after mixed Chinese data in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace.
• US equity futures (ES -1.1%, NQ -1.3%) gapped lower at the resumption of trade with risk sentiment dampened by the Moody’s downgrade on the US from AAA to Aa1 which effectively put it in line with the ratings by S&P and Fitch.
• European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.

FX

• DXY was pressured in reaction to Moody’s downgrading the US sovereign rating for the first time in over a century with the rating agency warning of government debt and a widening budget deficit, while there were renewed calls by US President Trump for the Fed to cut rates but added that Fed Chair Powell “will probably blow it again”. Nonetheless, the downside in the dollar was limited as it was also reported that the House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote on the passage of the ‘big beautiful bill’ as soon as this week after it initially hit a snag due to a conservative revolt on Friday.
• EUR/USD mildly benefitted from the early headwinds in the dollar but with the upside capped by resistance around the 1.1200 level, while the recent comments from ECB officials were mixed as ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger, while ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now.
• GBP/USD edged higher and just about returned to the 1.3300 territory with the UK and the EU expected to agree on Monday on a major post-Brexit reconciliation in which they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”.
• USD/JPY retreated owing to the early dollar weakness and haven flows which dragged the pair momentarily to sub-145.00 territory where it gradually rebounded from its lows and clawed back some of the losses.
• Antipodeans were kept afloat but with price action rangebound amid the subdued risk appetite and after the mixed Chinese activity data, while participants also await tomorrow’s RBA policy decision with the central bank unanimously expected to cut rates.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1916 vs exp. 7.2057 (Prev. 7.1938).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures declined after the Moody’s downgrade on the US rating and eventually breached below the 110.00 level.
• Bund futures faded some of last week’s late gains amid the absence of pertinent drivers and with EU supply ahead.
• 10yr JGB futures conformed to the lacklustre picture in global peers with a quiet data calendar for Japan at the start of the week, while there was a lack of surprises in the rhetoric from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida who reiterated the familiar line that they will keep raising interest rates if the economy and prices improve in line with forecasts.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were marginally lower in rangebound trade following quiet energy-specific newsflow and after somewhat mixed geopolitical-related headlines from over the weekend including the announcement of a Trump-Putin call scheduled for Monday, while there was criticism from Iran’s Supreme Leader against US President Trump’s ‘disgraceful’ remarks about being peace to the region.
• EU will need to spend at least EUR 10bln more than last year to refill its gas reserves ahead of winter, after the first cold season in four years left its reserves heavily depleted, according to FT.
• Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia detained a Liberia-flagged oil tanker after it left an Estonian Baltic Sea port.
• Oman’s Energy and Minerals Ministry signed an agreement with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to amend and extend the Block 53 exploration and production sharing agreement.
• Spot gold was lifted in an early flight to quality and a softer dollar in reaction to Moody’s downgrade on the US sovereign rating but then gradually pared back the initial gains after hitting resistance near the USD 3,250/oz level.
• Copper futures weakened amid the downbeat risk tone and as participants digested mixed Chinese activity data.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin retreated overnight following the whipsawing over the weekend and reverted to beneath the USD 104,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• South Korean presidential front-runner Lee said ties with Russia and China are also important, while he also stated that South Korea should not go all in on the alliance with the US and there is no need to rush a trade agreement with the US.
• US White House and Congressional officials reportedly scrutinised in recent months Apple’s (AAPL) plan to strike a deal to make Alibaba’s (9988 HK) AI available on iPhones in China.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Apr) 6.1% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 7.7%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Apr) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.9%)
• Chinese Unemployment Rate Urban Area (Apr) 5.1% (Prev. 5.2%)
• Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Apr) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
• Chinese House Prices MM (Apr) 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
• Chinese House Prices YY (Apr) -4.0% (Prev. -4.5%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli airstrikes killed at least 100 in Gaza as negotiators sought a ceasefire, while Israel’s military said it began a wide ground operation in northern and southern Gaza.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office announced that Israel will allow the entry of a basic quantity of food into Gaza to prevent a hunger crisis.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Gaza talks in Doha now include ending the war or a truce and hostage deal, while it added that the end of the war must include Gaza demilitarisation, Hamas exile and the release of all hostages. However, a senior Israeli official said there was little progress in Gaza talks that include ending the war.
• Hamas confirmed a new round of ceasefire talks with Israel in Doha and said both sides are discussing all issues without preconditions, according to an official cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes last week killed the de facto commander of Hamas in Gaza, Muhammad Sinwar, according to reports by Israeli press on Sunday.
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed to target Israel’s Ben Gurion airport with a ballistic missile, although Israel’s military said it successfully intercepted the missile from Yemen, while Houthis announced on Sunday evening that it planned to target Israeli airports in the coming few hours.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian questioned whether they should believe US President Trump, who speaks of peace and threatens Iran at the same time, while he added that Tehran will continue nuclear talks with the US but is not afraid of threats.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said US President Trump’s comments during his regional visit are an embarrassment and that the US must and will leave the region, while he also commented that Israel is a dangerous and deadly cancerous tumour which must be uprooted.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, while he will speak to Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO members after. However, it was later reported that UK PM Starmer spoke with leaders of the US, Italy, France and Germany regarding the situation in Ukraine and catastrophic costs of the war to both sides, while they also discussed the use of sanctions if Russia failed to engage seriously in a ceasefire and peace talks.
• US President Trump said he thinks that they will make a deal with Russian President Putin and said he will use leverage against Putin if he has to, while he added that they have to meet and thinks they will probably schedule it, according to Fox News.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and welcomed the prisoner exchange agreement reached, while Rubio emphasised President Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the violence. Furthermore, Lavrov discussed with Rubio further contacts between Russia and the US, while Lavrov noted the positive role of the US in the resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks.
• Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said preparations are underway for a Putin-Trump conversation, while it stated that a Putin-Zelensky meeting could happen but only if certain agreements are reached.
• Russian negotiators at Istanbul talks demanded that Ukraine withdraw troops from all Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow before a ceasefire can start, while they also demanded international recognition that five Ukrainian regions are Russian, neutrality for Ukraine, and no reparations, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the Pope’s inauguration.
• Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a long-lasting drone attack. It was also reported that Ukrainian military intelligence agency said Russia plans to conduct a ‘training and combat’ launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile late on Sunday to intimidate Ukraine and the West.

OTHER

• Turkish President Erdogan said it is possible to say that US sanctions on the Turkish defence sector have eased somewhat, while he added that NATO allies US and Turkey should not have restrictions in the defence sector.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said it does not rule out China launching political warfare to disrupt public morale ahead of President Lai’s inauguration anniversary on Tuesday.

GLOBAL NEWS

• Exit polls showed pre-EU centrist Nicusor Dan is on course to win in the Romanian Presidential Election after beating far-right leader George Simion, according to FT and Sky News.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday on a major post-Brexit reconciliation in which they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”, although some sticking points were said to remain with talks ‘going down to the wire‘, according to FT. More recently, Sky’s Coates posted “Sky News understands there was a late breakthrough on the deal and that you expect news on it mid morning. Talks went well post midnight last night”.
• ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger, while he currently sees no case for a half-point cut in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he said the Euro area may be exposed to a negative economic shock in the short term which may be followed by a positive shock in 2026 and 2027, according to FT.
• ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now, while she commented it is to be seen what will happen regarding a June cut and noted that declining energy prices and slowing global growth may lower inflation in the short term but could reverse in the medium term.
• Portugal’s incumbent centre-right party won the election with around 32% of the votes, while PM Monetenegro said after the election win that another minority government is the most likely option.
• Portugal will appeal to the European Commission to pressure France over cross-border electricity links after a blackout last month, according to FT.
• Polish pro-EU candidate Trzaskowski was narrowly ahead in Poland’s first round presidential vote and will enter a run-off with right-wing rival Nawrocki.
• Fitch affirmed Greece at BBB: Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.

DATA RECAP

• UK House Price Rightmove MM (May) 0.6% (Prev. 1.4%)
• UK House Price Rightmove YY (May) 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%)

3 .ASIA

3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3C CHINA

4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

“Smacks Too Much Of Elimination Of Political Rivals” – German Chancellor Merz “Very Skeptical” About Banning AfD

by Tyler Durden

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 02:00 AM

Via Remix News,

In recent months, a ban of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) appeared to be inching closer and closer, but now a key voice has clearly spoken out against such a move.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has now said that voting on an AfD ban in the Bundestag is not the right path, saying it “smacks too much of the elimination of political rivals.” 

He said he does not believe the current evidence is sufficient.

He has even gone a step farther, stating that former Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, an SPD politician with far-left sympathies who wrote for Antifa Magazine, was wrong to classify the AfD as “confirmed” right-wing extremist in the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) report. 

Critics indicate that she rushed the report out at the last minute of her tenure, despite the BfV having no president and despite a lack of any expert review, which she had previously promised would happen.

Speaking to Die Zeit, Merz said; “Working ‘aggressively and militantly’ against the free democratic basic order must be proven. And the burden of proof lies solely with the state. That is a classic task of the executive branch. And I have always internally resisted initiating ban proceedings from within the Bundestag. That smacks too much of political competition elimination to me.”

When the BfV first labeled the AfD “certainly right-wing extremist,” calls came from the left, including the Greens, Left Party, and SPD, to immediately begin proceedings to ban the party in the Bundestag. Even a large portion of the CDU backed the move.

Now, the BfV has temporarily removed the designation pending a court appeal, and as Remix News reported, this removal may have been in large part possible due to pressure from the United States.

Merz also expressed his displeasure with Faeser’s move to release the report on her last day of work.

He told Zeit he was “not happy with the way this process is being conducted.”

“The old government presented a report without any factual review, and it was also classified as confidential,” he added. 

As Remix News reported, the 1,100 page report contained only public statements from the AfD, and it has already been leaked and published by the German press. 

Remix News, in a report published earlier today, notes that the BfV is likely sitting on huge amounts of private surveillance data related to AfD members, but due to the unsavory mass surveillance methods used to obtain this data, it is likely withholding this from any official report.

“I don’t know the content of this report, and frankly, I don’t want to know it until the Federal Ministry of the Interior has made an assessment of it,” said Merz. 

He said that it would take several weeks and even months for the interior ministry to make such an assessment.

Read more here…

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/

Houthis Again Target Israel’s International Airport With Ballistic Missile

by Tyler Durden

Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 12:15 PM

The Houthis have responded to Israel’s major Friday airstrikes on sites across Yemen by launching two ballistic missiles at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv.

The Israeli military announced Sunday morning the intercept of at least one inbound ballistic missile, saying there were no injuries or casualties from the attack, only light injuries of people clamoring into bomb shelters.

“Sirens had sounded across central Israel, including in Tel Aviv, and the Shfela and Sharon regions, sending nearly a million residents scrambling to bomb shelters,” Times of Israel reports.

“Preceding the sirens by some five minutes, an early warning was issued to residents, alerting civilians of the long-range missile attack via a push notification on their phones,” the report continues.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree later confirmed in a statement the group’s intent to strike Ben Gurion international airport again, after earlier this month scoring a direct hit. 

Crucially, he warned that Ansarallah (the Houthis) will keep up these attacks until the “siege is lifted” – in reference to Gaza. Already, the United States military has withdrawn from engaging the Houthis, after President Trump said a ceasefire had been agreed to.

As for the new missile attack, the IDF said its air defenses shot down the missile at around 2am. The second Houthis missile is believed to have likely fallen far short of its target, perhaps landing in the desert. Iranian state media had described it as a ‘hypersonic missile’ launch – though this seems dubious.

All of this means there will likely be more Israeli attacks on Yemen to come. “The IDF now struck and severely damaged the ports in Yemen that are under the control of the Houthi terror group. The airport in Sanaa also remains destroyed,” Israeli Defense Minister Katz said Friday.

“As we said, if the Houthis continue to fire missiles on Israel, they will suffer painful blows, and we will also strike the heads of terror just as we did to Deif and the Sinwars in Gaza, to Nasrallah in Beirut and Haniyeh in Tehran,” he added.

And so it looks as if each side will continue trading tit-for-tat blows, but civilians will continue to suffer – and civilian aviation in the whole region could be impacted.

Israel has vowed to decapitate Houthi leadership, saying it will hunt down and eliminate Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in Yemen, along with his top military officials.

But short of an actual ground war, which Israel doesn’t have the stomach for – also given ongoing Gaza operations – taking out Houthi leadership and infrastructure will be easier said than done.

ISRAEL VS HAMAS

IDF launches ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ in major offensive on Gaza

Police officer wounded in suspected stabbing •

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

IDF evacuates Gazans in North ahead of large-scale ground op.

The move is intended to prepare the ground for the next phase of the operation, which is a broad ground offensive against Hamas.

By AMIR BOHBOTMAY 16, 2025 19:57

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Fdefense-news%2Farticle-854273&contentHash=6a5071005085d16a47b5c4f32c8c415037f972e7436128b1dfb3469b02cd0451&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250515_71b8945354c49e0c6fd088cdf1a1e452cd2b7678&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

The IDF began a wide-scale operation to evacuate the Palestinian population from northern Gaza on Friday ahead of a significant ground operation as part of the effort to topple Hamas rule and return the hostages.

In recent hours, reports have been received from the Gaza Strip about leaflets being distributed from the air, calling on civilians to evacuate the area immediately.

The leaflets distributed by the IDF in northern Gaza read, among other things: “Urgent warning! To everyone in this area, whether in a shelter, a tent, or a building, you are in a dangerous combat zone, and the area is not safe! Evacuate immediately southward.”

The move is intended to prepare the ground for the next phase of the operation, which is a broad ground offensive against Hamas.

The IDF clarified that the operation will be carried out gradually, alongside a large-scale mobilization of reserve forces, which is currently underway.

Israeli air force strikes used to aid entry of ground troops

According to military sources, the extent of the mobilization is defined as “good to very good,” and the airstrikes carried out in the past 24 hours are intended to assist with the entry of ground forces.

Southern Command Chief, Major-General Yaniv Asor, stated that four food distribution centers for the Palestinian population are already prepared, and preparations are ongoing to enable the delivery of aid, under the responsibility of the Defense Ministry.

END

WATCH: IDF begins renewed offensive in Gaza with operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’

The military said that it had launched several strikes and deployed forces to secure swaths of land in the Gaza Strip to renew its offensive in the enclave. 

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 17, 2025 00:12Updated: MAY 17, 2025 00:36

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3897851&url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-854285The IDF began operation ‘Gideons Chariots’ in Gaza on May 17, 2025. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-854285&contentHash=a9efd956ddea4f58befbed6158e091287dca4610a130c1f69e5dbb1d80908ded&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250515_71b8945354c49e0c6fd088cdf1a1e452cd2b7678&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

The IDF announced that it had begun Operation “Gideon’s Chariots” in Gaza in a Friday night statement. 

The military said that it had launched several strikes and deployed forces to seize swaths of land in the Gaza Strip to renew its offensive in the enclave. 

The Air Force has attacked the Gaza Strip 60 times since Friday morning, with a bomb being heard every four minutes, Maariv reported. The Air Force has increased the scope of attacks in the Gaza Strip in recent days and is at an even greater pace than the attacks on the eve of the first maneuver in October 2023.

Those neighboring the Gaza border have reported hearing loud explosions on Friday, Walla reported.

IDF expands war to defeat Hamas

The IDF added that the operation’s goals were to release the hostages and to defeat Hamas.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3897851&url=www.jpost.comThe IDF began operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ in Gaza on May 17, 2025. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

A security source told The Jerusalem Post previously that “the IDF intends to remain in any area that is conquered to prevent terrorism from returning. It will handle cleansed locations according to the Rafah model, where all threats were eliminated, and it became part of the security zone.”

The military reportedly postponed the operation until US President Donald Trump left the Middle East after his diplomatic visit to the area.  

END

ISRAEL HAMAS/SATURDAY

WATCH: IDF intensifies air, ground ops. in and around Gaza, monitoring Khan Yunis

During their operation, the IDF soldiers killed dozens of terrorists and destroyed multiple sites used by Hamas.

By AMIR BOHBOT, JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 17, 2025 13:09Updated: MAY 17, 2025 16:53

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-854311&contentHash=90bbd3e8ca1ca510d51a8c3fcfdfe1ec774aa2b60f902edc937784a5982f1891&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250515_71b8945354c49e0c6fd088cdf1a1e452cd2b7678&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

During operations in northern Gaza, the IDF troops from the Northern Brigade, under Division 252, killed dozens of terrorists and destroyed multiple terror infrastructures, the IDF announced Saturday.

The soldiers worked in cooperation with the Yahalam unit and destroyed a two-kilometer-long underground tunnel in the area.

They also located several mines, explosives, rocket launchers, and Hamas weapons, such as rockets, grenades, and missiles.

Monitoring Khan Yunis hospital for activity

Israeli intelligence officials are closely monitoring activity around the European Hospital in Khan Yunis to determine whether Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, Mohammad Sinwar, has been killed.

They are also investigating whether Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana and the spokesperson for Hamas’s military wing, Abu Ubaida, were killed along with him.

The IDF is also preparing for the next phase: an intense and large-scale operation across multiple fronts.

“We will not stop – until we return the hostages and dismantle Hamas’s rule of terror,” IDF Arabic Spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee said, confirming the IDF’s new intensified operations.

post.com/breaking-news/article-854311

Breaking the Hamas leadership

Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the general staff that every point the IDF reaches in the ground operation must be conquered, cleared, secured, and fortified, so that over time, the territory where Hamas is active will shrink dramatically. According to senior defense officials, the IDF’s plans are expected to break the Hamas leadership.

The IDF’s operations in Gaza are divided into several efforts: Securing buffer zones inside Palestinian territory and rear-area defense to protect the border fence from attacks.

“The locations the IDF has positioned itself in will enable forces to launch the major operation. It’s already clear we’ll reach areas we haven’t been in until now,” said field officers, adding that each day the IDF increases its control over Palestinian territory. This includes engineering work, road construction, aid center development, and supporting infrastructure.

According to military sources, the IDF could take control of all of Rafah within a week, cutting it off from Khan Yunis, seize large parts of northern Gaza, move its population southward, and prepare for a very large-scale maneuver.

On Sunday at 4:00 p.m., the political echelon will convene to decide whether to allow more time to advance hostage negotiations or to proceed with the large-scale maneuver under fire.

The establishment of headquarters for the operating divisions was completed Friday night, and advanced stages of operational planning were approved, involving coordinated air and naval forces. Military sources said the plans include deception tactics and a very broad scope of firepower. Division commanders are awaiting orders from the general staff, which in turn is waiting for a decision from the political echelon to begin a formal battle procedure.

On Friday, the IDF began moving civilians from Beit Lahia in northern Gaza to the southern part of the Strip through leaflet distribution and targeted strikes on terror infrastructure in the area. In the coming days, additional population relocations southward are expected from other focal points.

The IDF is operating in several areas across Gaza to establish shelter zones and humanitarian aid centers where food packages will be distributed to Palestinian families. “These are pre-selected zones that have undergone engineering operations to clear out infrastructure and create open, smooth, and controlled spaces,” said a military source. “Electric infrastructure and communications systems have been installed. Security screening sites will be set up there, and Palestinians will soon begin arriving. The chief of staff visited the area to personally oversee the preparations.”

The United Arab Emirates, in coordination with the Israeli Defense Ministry, funded the deployment of water pipelines from Israel into Gaza, reaching the aid centers. “Once Palestinians realize food and water are being distributed in an orderly manner and in a secure area, they will go there,” said security sources. “This action strips Hamas leadership of their most important asset since the beginning of the war – control over humanitarian aid and, consequently, over the Palestinian street. Once this occurs, it will change the rules of the game. Pressure on the Hamas leadership will increase.”

ISRAEL VS HAMAS

Gaza deal negotiations show no progress, Israeli source tells ‘Post’

“The impression received is that the Israelis came to Doha to thwart the talks and find justification for renewing the war in Gaza,” a foreign source said.

By AMICHAI STEIN, WALLA!MAY 16, 2025 16:05Updated: MAY 16, 2025 21:58

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There has been no progress three days into the Gaza deal negotiations in Doha, Qatar, an Israeli source told The Jerusalem Post on Friday.

The Israeli delegation is expected to remain in Qatar until Saturday night, according to Walla. US President Donald Trump left the region on Friday. 

In early May, the security cabinet decided that if Hamas does not agree to Israel’s proposed outline by the time Trump concludes his Middle East visit, the military operation in Gaza will be significantly expanded.

The proposed deal includes the release of 10 hostages in exchange for a 45-day ceasefire.

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff left the Middle East on Friday morning and returned to the US.

The security cabinet is expected to convene on Sunday to discuss expanding the operation in Gaza. 

Frustration with the talks

A foreign source familiar with the details noted that the Qatari mediators were very frustrated with the talks that took place recently in Doha, Walla reported.

According to the source, the Israeli negotiating team did not come to conduct serious negotiations and did not offer anything new.

“So far, this is the worst round of negotiations. Nothing has been achieved. The impression received is that the Israelis came to Doha to thwart the talks and find justification for renewing the war in Gaza,” the source said.

ISRAEL VS HAMAS

Assailant wounds police officer in terror attack

The suspect was neutralized at the scene and the wounded individual was evacuated for medical treatment at Shaare Zedek.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 16, 2025 21:32Updated: MAY 16, 2025 23:16

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-854277&contentHash=cc48f55de453d31279a685e307db24dd1b1a20a4912afdfc969c54e2e5beb03b&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250515_71b8945354c49e0c6fd088cdf1a1e452cd2b7678&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

A 25-year-old police officer was wounded in a terror attack in Jerusalem’s Old City on Friday, police and Magen David Adom reported.

The incident occurred at one of the entrance gates to the Temple Mount.

The suspect reportedly arrived at the scene with a knife, and a police officer approached him. Then, the attacker charged at the officer and stabbed him in the back.

The suspect was shot and killed at the scene by a border guard and a second police officer, according to Maariv. The wounded officer evacuated by MDA personnel for medical treatment at Jerusalem’s Shaare Zedek Medical Center in moderate condition.

Large numbers of police officers arrived at the scene and are investigating the incident.

Terror attack in the West Bank

A recent terror attack took the life of Tzeela Gez, a 30-year-old mother of three, on Wednesday night in a shooting on Route 446 in the West Bank’s Binyamin region while en route to the hospital to give birth to her fourth child.

Doctors at Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Campus in Petah Tikva declared her dead the following morning after attempting to save her life.

After conducting an emergency Caesarean section to save her unborn child, hospital officials reported a slight improvement in the baby’s condition as of Friday morning. However, they stated that the baby’s condition is still serious but stable.

Last week, at least three IDF soldiers were wounded in two separate incidents that occurred minutes apart in the West Bank. The wounded were evacuated via helicopter to the Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa.

James Genn contributed to this report.

ISRAEL VS HAMAS/USA/LIBYA

US developing plan to move 1 million Palestinians to Libya, NBC News reports

Palestinians, according to one source, may be incentivised to leave with the promise of a stipend and housing. 

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSMAY 16, 2025 23:49Updated: MAY 17, 2025 00:00

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-854284&contentHash=0d2906bdc8c5acfe1628810f42550178403d1cfb721aa26be6e76d48ceb8ddbe&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20250515_71b8945354c49e0c6fd088cdf1a1e452cd2b7678&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&isMobile=0&unitType=tts-player

The Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate as much as one million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya, NBC News reported on Friday, citing five people with knowledge of the matter.

Citing two people with direct knowledge and a former US official, NBC also reported that the plan is under serious enough consideration that the US has discussed it with Libya’s leadership.

In exchange for resettling the Palestinians, the administration would release to Libya billions of dollars of funds the US froze more than a decade ago, according to NBC and citing the same three people.

Palestinians, according to one source, may be incentivised to leave with the promise of a stipend and housing. 

Basem Naim, a senior Hamas official, claimed the terror group was unaware of plans to relocate Palestinians to Libya but condemned the rumored relocation plans nonetheless.

“Palestinians are very rooted in their homeland, very strongly committed to the homeland and they are ready to fight up to the end and to sacrifice anything to defend their land, their homeland, their families, and the future of their children,” Naim said in response to questions from NBC News. “[Palestinians] are exclusively the only party who have the right to decide for the Palestinians, including Gaza and Gazans, what to do and what not to do.”

The alleged plans come amid significant civil tensions in Libya, where protesters have demanded that members of the government resign.

Donald Trump’s plans for Gaza

The US should take control of the Gaza Strip, deal with Hamas, and turn it into a freedom zone,  Trump said Thursday in Qatar.

“If it’s necessary, I think I’d be proud to have the United States have it, take it, make it a freedom zone,” he said during a business roundtable.

“Let some good things happen, put people in homes where they can be safe, and Hamas is going to have to be dealt with,” Trump was quoted as saying.

“They’ve never solved the Gaza problem, and if you look at it, I have aerial shots,” he said. “I mean, there’s practically no building standing; there’s no building. People are living under the rubble of buildings that collapsed, which is not acceptable. It’s a tremendous death. And I want to see that be a freedom zone.”

Previous Trump visions for relocation have included seeing Palestinians transferred to Egypt and Jordan.

Civil unrest in Libya amid Gaza relocation plans

Hundreds of Libyan protesters called on Friday for the ouster of the internationally recognised prime minister, Abdulhamid Dbeibah, and at least three ministers resigned in sympathy with the protesters.

The demonstrators gathered in Martyrs’ Square in Tripoli, chanting slogans such as “The nation wants to topple the government” and “We want elections.”

They then marched to the main government building in the city center. “We won’t leave until he leaves,” one protester said.

The marchers carried pictures of Dbeibah, national security adviser Ibrahim Dbeibah and Interior Minister Emad Tarbulsi with their faces crossed out in red

Dbeibah, who leads the divided country’s Government of National Unity, came to power through a UN-backed process in 2021. Planned elections failed to proceed that year because of disagreements among rival factions, and he has remained in power.

On Friday, businessman Wael Abdulhafed said, “We are (here) today to express our anger against Dbeibah and all those in the power for years now and (who) prevent elections. They must leave power.”

Calls for Dbeibah to resign increased after two rival armed groups clashed in the capital this week in the heaviest fighting in years. Eight civilians were killed, according to the United Nations.

Violence flared after the prime minister on Tuesday ordered the armed groups to be dismantled. Demonstrators have accused Dbeibah of failing to restore stability and of being complicit in the growing power of armed groups.

Economy and Trade Minister Mohamed al-Hawij, Local Government Minister Badr Eddin al-Tumi and Minister of Housing Abu Bakr al-Ghawi resigned on Friday.

Militia leader Abdulghani Kikli, widely known as Ghaniwa, died in the clashes, which calmed on Wednesday after the government announced a ceasefire.

Libya has had little stability since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising ousted longtime autocrat Muammar Gaddafi. The country split in 2014 between rival eastern and western factions, though an outbreak of major warfare paused with a truce in 2020.

While eastern Libya has been dominated for a decade by commander Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army, control in Tripoli and western Libya has been splintered among numerous armed factions.

The main oil facilities in the major energy exporter are located in southern and eastern Libya, far from fighting in Tripoli. Engineers at several oil fields and export terminals told Reuters output remained unaffected by the clashes.\

END

ISRAEL VS HAMAS/SUNDAY

IDF increases pace of Gaza invasion, killing dozens of Hamas terrorists

The IDF said 670 targets were hit, and reports of 200 dead civilians may be correct.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBMAY 18, 2025 16:26Updated: MAY 18, 2025 18:37

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The IDF announced on Sunday that it had already, over the weekend, increased the pace of expanding the Gaza invasion, including killing dozens of Hamas terrorists and striking 670 Hamas targets.

Over the weekend, Israeli forces invaded and started to take control over large portions of northern and southern Gaza, which they had not entered in such large numbers of forces since 2024.

IDF attacks focused on Hamas forces, their weapons, tunnels, and anti-tank missile crews. 

Notably, the IDF did not indicate wide-ranging attacks on headquarters, possibly because Hamas has been unable to reorganize new large command centers since the IDF renewed hostilities in early March.

The tone of the IDF update still seemed to leave room for negotiations with Hamas to halt the wider invasion and reach a new ceasefire and hostage exchange deal.

However, IDF sources rejected reports that orders were circulating to commanders in the field to prepare for a potential imminent ceasefire.

Still, the IDF message did not indicate how far the larger invasion had expanded.

Already several weeks ago, the IDF had conquered or taken control over 40-50% of Gaza, and the operation could raise that number to 70-80%, leaving most Palestinians in the coastal al-Muwasi humanitarian zone, parts of Khan Yunis, and parts of central Gaza.

IDF avoiding certain areas in Gaza

There are still certain areas where the IDF is avoiding acting so as not to accidentally kill Israeli hostages held by Hamas, as it has throughout the war.

Hamas and foreign reports said that the IDF attacks since the end of last week had killed over 260 civilians and injured over 600.

IDF sources said that it was too early to know whether these numbers were correct, but that it was not impossible, given that almost all of Hamas is hiding among Palestinian civilians, even as Israel is trying its hardest to keep the number of incidental killings of civilians low.

Still, given that the IDF said that dozens of terrorists were killed, the number of civilians would probably be a good bit lower than 260.

WEST BANK

SYRIA

IRAN

GPS Disruption Reported In World’s Most Critical Maritime Chokepoint

Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 04:55 PM

A new report has emerged stating that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are experiencing GPS interference, disrupting electronic navigation systems and forcing commercial ships to rely on manual or backup methods in one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. 

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) announced on X late Sunday morning that it has “received reports from vessels experiencing GPS interference in the Strait of Hormuz area, with disruptions lasting several hours, affecting navigation systems and requiring vessels to rely on backup methods.”

UKMTO provided no further information on the source of the GPS interference. However, if it was caused by a foreign adversary such as Iran, GPS interference in the critical maritime chokepoint would be considered a form of hybrid warfare. 

GPS interference or spoofing falls into the domain of non-kinetic warfare—it doesn’t involve firing weapons but can degrade vessel operations in the strait. 

The incident occurred after Iran’s president and the US agreed to continued nuclear talks on Saturday. 

“We are negotiating, and we will negotiate, we are not after war but we do not fear any threat,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said during a speech to the military broadcasted on state television.

The issue with GPS disruptions in the strait is that it’s considered an energy superhighway for the global economy. About 20% of global oil (and about 30% of seaborne-traded oil) passes through the narrow stretch of water (approximately 17 to 20 million barrels of oil per day) that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Last year, analysts led by Tom Joyce, managing director and capital market strategist at MUFG, showed clients the critical maritime chokepoints across the Middle East, including the Suez Canal, the Bab-El Mandeb Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz. This note was published around the time Iran-backed Houthis were just getting started on their campaign to attack US and Israel-linked ships in the Southern Red Sea. 

Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—whether through conventional conflict, cyber operations, GPS spoofing, or sabotage—can trigger a surge in the war risk premium for Brent crude prices, elevate maritime insurance premiums, and undermine global energy security. 

While there are currently no indications that the GPS interference incident will impact crude markets when futures reopen, the incident warrants additional monitoring. 

END

RUSSIA VS UKRAINE

Russia’s Maximalist Demands At Istanbul Peace Talks Revealed

Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 11:05 AM

The Kremlin has said on Saturday that a future meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky is still ‘possible’ – despite no breakthroughs at Friday’s Istanbul talks by delegations representing the warring sides.

Putin spokesman Dimitry Peskov said a meeting between the Russian president and Zelensky “is possible but only as a result of the work of the delegations of both sides and reaching specific agreements.”

Peskov underscored that one of the major hurdles is remains the question of who Ukraine would authorize to sign any potential agreements assuming the negotiations could produce firm settlement proposals.

Moscow’s stance all along has been that Zelensky is illegitimate given he canceled elections under martial law, and has run far past his authorized term in office. Kiev, however, has said that the national constitution allows for this in war time.

As for the content of Friday’s talks and reports that Moscow demanded a Ukrainian troop withdrawal from all the four easter territories, including Donetsk, he said, “Negotiations… must be conducted strictly behind closed doors. This is in the interest of the effectiveness of these negotiations.”

One key thing the two sides did agree to is a large prisoner swap involving 1,000 POWs – which would be the single biggest of the war.

But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin’s demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again emphasized “this is Ukraine’s land” – and has vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues. 

The following is reportedly among Moscow’s top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West’s perspective), per a new Bloomberg report:

• Ukraine agreeing to neutral status regarding NATO
• No foreign troops in Ukraine
• No nuclear weapons in Ukraine
• De-facto recognition of Crimea and lost eastern territories as now Russia’s
• Withdrawal of Kiev forces from these territories before a ceasefire takes effect

But once again, Peskov has not officially confirmed this list, and precise details discussed at Istanbul remain subject of speculation amid leaks to the press.

The US and Russia on Saturday held a phone call, in a post-Istanbul talks debriefing: 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a phone call with his US counterpart Marco Rubio, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Saturday, to discuss the direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv in Istanbul.

“Lavrov noted the positive role of the United States in helping Kiev eventually accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to resume the Istanbul talks,” the foreign ministry statement said, adding that Russia was ready to continue working with the US on the matter.

Meanwhile: “We didn’t say five. We said eight.”…

The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.

The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn’t cooperate. But Russia’s fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.

END

RUSSIA/EU /FRANCE

Macron: Europe Prepping Fresh Russia Sanctions ‘In Coordination’ With US

Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 07:35 AM

Europe is preparing new Russia sanctions ‘in coordination’ with the United States, according to fresh words of French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said while attending a European security meeting in Albania that the EU will ready these sanctions given that Russia continues to refuse an “unconditional ceasefire” with Ukraine.

“We are continuing to prepare new sanctions in coordination with the United States,” Macron told reporters, following Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul on Friday, which ended without any significant breakthrough. One CNN headline, for example, says that “A whiplash week of diplomacy leaves Ukraine much where it started.”

But the talks – which involved a relatively low level delegation on the Russian side – did result in commitments to a sizeable prisoner swap, the likelihood of further rounds of talks, and both agreeing to compose their vision of a future ceasefire.

The prisoner exchange pledge is significant, given it would mark the largest since the Russian invasion: there will be an exchange 1,000 prisoners of war.

However, there’s no ceasefire – not even the 30 days that Kiev and Washington have been pushing for.

Earlier in the day Kiev’s top European allies blasted Russia’s stance as presented in Istanbul “unacceptable”:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, joined by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish leader Donald Tusk, said in a statement on Friday that “the Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time,” according to Reuters.

The Wall Street Journal has described that “The talks, in the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul, came about as the result of President Trump’s pressure, so far mostly applied on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to find an end to the war.”

President Zelensky has meanwhile been making clear that Ukraine will not surrender its territory as “this is Ukraine’s land” – and he isn’t so much as ready to even offer Crimea. Zelensky and European leaders are reportedly holding a phone call with US President Trump in the wake of the Istanbul meeting.

Prior statement of Macron two months ago…

https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1905006161604071752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1905006161604071752%7Ctwgr%5E192e640db1adc3d8e437bcafa3c3c448a9fa68f4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fmacron-europe-preparing-fresh-russia-sanctions-coordination-us

They will likely try to convince the US leader that attempts to negotiate an end to the war with Putin are futile. This seems to have been Zelensky’s aim all along: getting Washington and Trump back on his side, and securing the unending flow of weapons, cash, and intelligence.

Will the White House at the very least demand that Zelensky will acknowledge Russian sovereignty over Crimea? 

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA/SATURDAY

The Ball’s In Trump’s Court After The Latest Istanbul Talks

Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 12:50 PM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The mixed signals that he sent on Friday suggest that he hasn’t made up his mind about what to do…

The first bilateral Russian-Ukrainian talks in over three years were held in Istanbul on Friday after Zelensky agreed, likely under pressure from Trump, to Putin’s proposal from the week prior. They didn’t result in the unconditional 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine demanded nor did Ukraine agree to withdraw from the entirety of the disputed regions like Russia demanded, but they did agree to a prisoner swap and to hold another round of talks sometime in the future. They therefore weren’t for nothing.

Most importantly, Russia and Ukraine were able to show Trump that they’re interested in peace after he signaled his increasing impatience with the US’ hitherto unsuccessful mediation between them, which could result in him either “escalating to de-escalate” or simply walking away from the conflict. Prior to making his fateful choice about the future of American involvement, Trump will likely hold talks with Putin, at the very least over the phone but ideally in person sometime in the coming weeks.

After all, the ball’s now in his court after the Russian and Ukrainian positions have proven to be irreconcilable, so Russia will either inevitably obtain its maximum goals by continuing to rely on military means to that end or the US will double down on support for Ukraine in order to prevent that outcome. The only realistic compromise would be if the US successfully coerces Ukraine into withdrawing from some or all of the disputed regions in exchange for Russia agreeing to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

The US hasn’t yet attempted that even though it could have tried doing so anytime over the past three months since Trump returned to the White House, however, thus leading to the aforesaid scenario branch. It therefore remains unclear exactly what Trump will do. On the one hand, he just threatened Russia with “crushing” sanctions, but he also just complained about the billions that the US “pissed away” in support of Ukraine. It accordingly looks like he himself hasn’t yet decided how to proceed.

“Escalating to de-escalate” would entail enormous financial and strategic costs, the latter with regard to potentially offsetting his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia” for more muscularly containing China and even risking World War III in the worst-case scenario. 

At the same time, walking away would lead to him owning what could then soon become one of the West’s worst geopolitical defeats. The middle ground between these extremes could be strictly enforced secondary sanctions against Russia’s energy clients.

To elaborate, the aim would be to pressure China and India into drastically curtailing their imports, the first as a “goodwill gesture” after Trump’s newly announced “total reset” in their ties and the second as a means to signal its worth to the US in the hopes that Trump reconsiders his incipient pivot to Pakistan. Nevertheless, one or both might still refuse to comply or secretly continue to purchase large amounts of Russian energy, thus forcing the US to either turn a blind eye or worsen ties by sanctioning them.

A blend of these scenarios could see Trump threatening Zelensky with a clean break from this conflict if he doesn’t withdraw from Donbass while threatening Putin with strictly enforced secondary sanctions if he doesn’t accept a (unconditional?) 30-day ceasefire in the event that this happens. Calls could then be made to Xi and Modi to inform them of his plans in the hope that they’ll convince Putin to agree. Such a proposal would be the most pragmatic one from the US’ perspective and could lead to a breakthrough.

END

MONDAY

Trump Speaks With Putin & Zelensky Monday Toward Ending Ukraine ‘Bloodbath

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 09:10 AM

President Trump is expected to hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, followed by a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – after they were first announced Saturday.

Writing in all caps, the president posted over the weekend to Truth Social, “The subjects of the call with be, stopping the ‘bloodbath’ that is killing, on average, more than 5000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade.”

He continued in the statement by saying “hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end.” His highly optimistic note ended with “God bless us all!!!” – again written in all caps.

Trump has further indicated he’ll be in contact with “various” NATO leaders related to these ceasefire efforts, coming on heels of the Friday meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations – the first such direct engagement since efforts at talks ceased within the opening months of 2022 and the war’s start.

The NY Times has previewed:

The call, which Mr. Trump said would take place at 10 a.m. Eastern, would be the third known phone conversation between the two men since the American president’s second term began. The first two, which took place in February and March, were celebrated in Moscow as signs of weakening Western resolve to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

There was little concrete which came out of the meeting, other than a new POW swap – which is to involve 1,000 captives returned on either side – and declarations that each side is open to meeting a gain.

Still, the warring sides are far apart in terms of conditions, with Zelensky having reasserted on Friday, “In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land.”

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed the US administration’s thinking on how things are really going at this point. He reiterated to CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that the White House will not tolerate endless negotiations which simply drag the war and killing on further.

“On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required,” he began by acknowledging.

“On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward,” he then emphasized.

The US is currently examining competing ceasefire proposals offered by each side. “If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress,” he said.

The following is reportedly among Moscow’s top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West’s perspective), per a recent Bloomberg report:

• Ukraine agreeing to neutral status regarding NATO
• No foreign troops in Ukraine
• No nuclear weapons in Ukraine
• De-facto recognition of Crimea and lost eastern territories as now Russia’s
• Withdrawal of Kiev forces from these territories before a ceasefire takes effect

But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin’s demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues. 

The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.

The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn’t cooperate. But Russia’s fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.

ENND

RUSSIA/USA

“It Went Very Well” – Trump Sees Imminent “End To The War” After Two-Hour-Call With Putin

by Tyler Durden

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 01:40 PM

Update (1335ET): Confirming the optimistic readout from the Kremlin, President Trump just posted on TruthSocial stating that his call with Putin “went very well.” (emphasis ours)

Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 

I believe it went very well. 

Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. 

The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. 

The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. 

Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. 

There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. 

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. 

I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin. 

The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. 

Let the process begin!

And cue the European leaders and US neocons fuming over the potential for peace.

*  *  *

Update(1300ET): Presidents Trump and Putin have ended their phone call, which lasted for more than two hours, according to RIA. This suggests some heavy lifting was done regarding peace in Ukraine, and restoring Washington-Moscow relations. Trump had reportedly phoned Zelensky just prior to speaking with Putin. It appears an overall ‘positive’ development, also given the emerging wire headlines:

• PUTIN CALLED HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP USEFUL: TASS
• PUTIN: MEMORANDUM WITH UKRAINE MAY INCLUDE TRUCE TERMS: TASS
• RUSSIA READY TO WORK WITH UKRAINE ON FUTURE PEACE DEAL: TASS
• PUTIN SAYS HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP WAS VERY MEANINGFUL: IFX
• PUTIN SAYS TRUCE IS POSSIBLE IF CERTAIN AGREEMENTS REACHED:TASS

But this Putin reference to “certain agreements” or conditions being reached will be the sticking point. Zelensky has repeatedly made clear “this is Ukraine’s land” when it comes to the annexed four eastern territories and Crimea.

Very likely, Putin pressed this point with Trump – that Zelensky is refusing any level of compromise (which is precisely what Kiev is currently accusing Moscow of doing). 

As we await the call readouts from both sides, Vice President JD Vance’s latest remarks upon returning to the US from Rome lay out where things stand:

Meanwhile…

.com/JustinTLogan/status/1924447081520918725?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1924447081520918725%7Ctwgr%5E0363e8abd2312d740837f58846ae44ced8b40b72%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&

* * *

President Trump is expected to hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, followed by a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – after they were first announced Saturday.

Writing in all caps, the president posted over the weekend to Truth Social, “The subjects of the call with be, stopping the ‘bloodbath’ that is killing, on average, more than 5000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade.”

He continued in the statement by saying “hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end.” His highly optimistic note ended with “God bless us all!!!” – again written in all caps.

Trump has further indicated he’ll be in contact with “various” NATO leaders related to these ceasefire efforts, coming on heels of the Friday meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations – the first such direct engagement since efforts at talks ceased within the opening months of 2022 and the war’s start.

The NY Times has previewed:

The call, which Mr. Trump said would take place at 10 a.m. Eastern, would be the third known phone conversation between the two men since the American president’s second term began. The first two, which took place in February and March, were celebrated in Moscow as signs of weakening Western resolve to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

And the Kremlin issued the following Monday:

“The conversation is important, taking into account the negotiations held in Istanbul,” Peskov said. “As for the talks, we [in the Kremlin] have already said everything we could, we underscored the basic points,” he added. “We will now wait for it. We will give the maximum information possible based on the results of the conversation,” he stated.

There was little concrete which came out of the meeting, other than a new POW swap – which is to involve 1,000 captives returned on either side – and declarations that each side is open to meeting a gain.

Still, the warring sides are far apart in terms of conditions, with Zelensky having reasserted on Friday, “In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land.”

Just ahead of the Putin-Zelensky calls at the White House on Monday:

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed the US administration’s thinking on how things are really going at this point. He reiterated to CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that the White House will not tolerate endless negotiations which simply drag the war and killing on further.

“On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required,” he began by acknowledging.

“On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward,” he then emphasized.

The US is currently examining competing ceasefire proposals offered by each side. “If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress,” he said.

The following is reportedly among Moscow’s top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West’s perspective), per a recent Bloomberg report:

• Ukraine agreeing to neutral status regarding NATO
• No foreign troops in Ukraine
• No nuclear weapons in Ukraine
• De-facto recognition of Crimea and lost eastern territories as now Russia’s
• Withdrawal of Kiev forces from these territories before a ceasefire takes effect

But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin’s demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues. 

The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.

The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn’t cooperate. But Russia’s fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.

*  *  *

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

Texas House OKs Bill To Sue Vaccine Makers for False Ads

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 11:25 AM

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

In a major victory for accountability and informed consent, the Texas House of Representatives passed HB 3441 yesterday, a bill that would allow Texans to sue vaccine manufacturers whose advertising leads to injury or harm.

The unprecedented move comes as CDC data show there have been an alarming 2,665,796 adverse events linked to vaccines since 1990, the vast majority related to COVID-19 jabs.

But if fewer than 1% of adverse events are reported – as a 2010 HHS-funded Harvard analysis confirms – the real number could exceed 266 million, or roughly 7.6 million per year, or 20,800 per day.

First filed in February, the new bill passed yesterday by a vote of 88–31, moving the legislation one step closer to becoming law.

The pioneering legislation boasts a whopping 79 brave sponsors, 74 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

The bill is spearheaded by Representatives Shelley Luther (R-62), Jeff Leach (R-67), Marc LaHood (R-121), Oscar Longoria (D-35), and Mike Schofield (R-132).

If you want this kind of bill passed in your state or at the federal level, you can find your local, state, and U.S. representatives here and let them know.

What the Bill Does

Texas House Bill 3441, titled “Relating to the liability of vaccine manufacturers that advertise a harmful vaccine,” holds pharmaceutical companies liable if:

• They advertise a vaccine in Texas through paid promotion, and
• That advertised vaccine causes injury or harm to an individual.

In short: if a vaccine manufacturer pushes a product through ads—and that product ends up causing harm—they can be sued for it in court.

The bill defines “advertising” broadly to include:

• Television and radio ads
• Print media and digital media
• Product placements and influencer promotions

But excludes materials inside a clinical setting or direct conversations between doctors and patients.

Legal Ramifications

HB 3441 creates a clear legal pathway for Texans to bring a civil action against vaccine manufacturers—up to three years after the injury occurs.

If the injured party prevails in court, the manufacturer is required to pay:

• Actual damages
• Court costs
• Attorney’s fees

Why This Matters

For decades, vaccine manufacturers have enjoyed near-total immunity from liability thanks to federal protections under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 and the PREP Act.

But HB 3441 cuts through that shield—not by targeting the product itself, but by going after the promotional lies used to sell it.

Cleverly, the bill’s authors appear to be leveraging the advertising hook as a legal workaround to federal immunity, holding companies accountable for the claims they make, not merely the product they produce.

This represents a massive legal shift.

If HB 3441 becomes law, Texas could become the first state in the nation to strip vaccine manufacturers of their immunity—at least when it comes to deceptive advertising that leads to harm.

What’s Next

The bill is now classified as “engrossed,” meaning it’s cleared the House and is headed to the Texas Senate for consideration. If it passes the Senate and is signed by the governor, it will go into effect on September 1, 2025.

Bottom Line

The message from Texas lawmakers is clear: If you lied in your ad and your shot injured someone – get ready to pay up.

House Probes Pfizer’s Delay Of COVID Jab To Influence 2020 Elect

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 07:45 AM

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The House Judiciary Committee has zeroed in on a former Pfizer researcher following a Wall Street Journal report that the pharmaceutical company may have delayed positive COVID-19 vaccine trial results to influence the 2020 election.

On Thursday, the committee sent a letter to Philip Dormitzer, Pfizer’s former head of vaccine research and development, demanding all documents about his work on Pfizer’s vaccine trials from March 1, 2020 to present. The letter comes as federal prosecutors are also reportedly looking into the matter.

The allegation surfaced when Dormitzer told coworkers at his new employer, GSK, that Pfizer deliberately slowed clinical testing so it would not be complete until after the election

Positive results from the clinical trials may have given Trump a political boost. Instead, he left the White House in 2021—only to return in 2025.

After Trump’s 2024 election, Dormitzer asked GSK to transfer him to Canada, fearing he might become a target of an investigation. When pressed on the reason, he replied, “Let’s just say it wasn’t a coincidence, the timing of the vaccine.” 

GSK later passed his comments to federal prosecutors in New York, as reported by The Journal in March. The House Judiciary swiftly stepped in and pressed GSK for more information about The Journal’s reporting. 

According to GSK’s answers to congressional investigators, Dormitzer claimed that “in late 2020, the three most senior people in Pfizer R&D were involved in a decision to deliberately slow down clinical testing so that it would not be complete prior to the results of the presidential election that year.” 

Dormitzer reportedly clarified that “this was not a situation of delaying disclosure of completed results but was a situation of slowing down results before disclosure became necessary.” 

Dormitzer has until May 29 to produce the requested documents and schedule his transcribed interview with the Committee.

Trump previously made similar claims that Pfizer withheld knowledge on its alleged vaccine success.

“The @US_FDA and the Democrats didn’t want to have me get a Vaccine WIN, prior to the election, so instead it came out five days later – As I’ve said all along!” Trump wrote on social media after the 2020 election.

The safety of the COVID vaccines have been speculated since it was released. 

There has been concerns that the vaccines could cause myocarditis.

A Freedom of Information Act on a myocarditis study was released in March 2024 and was entirely redacted.

END

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Alice in Chains cancels May shows; 3 Doors Down cancels tour; Seether postpones show; Lorrie Morgan cancels concer

Alice in Chains cancels May shows; 3 Doors Down cancels tour; Seether postpones show; Lorrie Morgan cancels concert as hubby fights mouth cancer; Michael Connelly cancels book tour; & more

DE: Queen Margarethe cancels official mission; IS: musician Mosh Ben-Ari, 54, may cancel shows; AU: Bindi Irwin misses gala honoring husband Steve because of ruptured appendix

Further indications of the global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers.

To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.

Cancelations:

UNITED STATES

Alice In Chains Cancels All May 2025 Concerts Due To Sean Kinney’s Health

May 9, 2025

Alice In Chains has canceled all of its previously announced shows this month after drummer Sean Kinney fell ill. One day after scrapping a concert at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, due to Sean’s health, the band released a follow-up statement saying: “After careful consideration and following the advice of medical professionals, we have made the decision to cancel our upcoming festival performances and the Alice In Chains headline shows. While we were all eager to return to the stage, Sean’s health is our top priority at this moment. Although the issue requires immediate attention, his long-term prognosis is positive. When the Uncasville show was called off on Thursday, Alice In Chains said in a social media post that “Sean experienced a non-life-threatening medical emergency” after the band’s soundcheck earlier that evening.” No additional information is currently available on Kinney’s condition or medical issue.

Researcher's Note - in September 2021 Kinney made the following pro-fear/pro-jab statement: We just kind of planned on taking a year off," drummer Sean Kinney echoed Jerry's words. And then this [COVID] kind of shut those things down to a degree. So we haven't really had a discussion of if, when, where, what, why, but I would assume, probably… Like Jerry said, I don't think we're gonna magically be okay to go back and everybody get back to the life they had before within the next year. Maybe by this time next year, if there's enough vaccine [sic]: Link

No age reported.

Link

Upgrade to paid

3 Doors Down Singer Brad Arnold Diagnosed with Stage 4 Kidney Cancer, Says It ‘Metastasized into My Lung’

May 7, 2025

Three Doors Down singer Brad Arnold has announced he has stage 4 kidney cancer that has spread to his lungs — but says he has “no fear.” The rock band and Arnold, 46, posted a shared update on their Instagram accounts on May 7, announcing that he had “some not so good news for you today. And, so, I’ve been sick a couple of weeks ago and then went to the hospital and got checked out.” That’s when the “Kryptonite” singer says he “got the diagnosis that I had clear cell renal carcinoma that had metastasized into my lung. And that’s stage 4, and that’s not real good.” Clear cell renal carcinoma gets its name from how the cancer cells appear under a microscope, the National Cancer Institute explains. It makes up about 80% of kidney cancer cases in adults. Treatment includes surgery, immunotherapy, and other targeted therapies like radiation. The five-year survival rate for clear cell renal carcinoma is up to 69% when it’s caught early, but as the NCI explains, once it’s spread elsewhere, “treatment is more difficult and the 5-year survival rate is about 10%.” But as Arnold shared, he’s relying on his faith to get through treatment. “We serve a mighty God, and He can overcome anything. So I have no fear. I really, sincerely am not scared of it at all, but it is going to force us to cancel our tour this summer and we’re sorry for that.”

Researcher's Note – Rare resistance from prominent artists! However no public statements made regarding their "jab status": 3 Doors Down Cancel Concerts That Require COVID Vaccination [sic] or Negative Test: Link

Link

Fans Express Concern as Beloved Rock Band Postpones Concert Unexpectedly

May 12,2025

Seether fans are feeling concerned for the beloved band after they unexpectedly postponed their upcoming show at The Rave in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, as part of their The Surface Seems So Far Tour, originally scheduled for tomorrow, May 12.

“Due to unforeseen circumstances we will have to postpone our show in Milwaukee tomorrow night. We appreciate your understanding and support during this time. For more information, please visit therave.com,” the band wrote across social media, causing worry among their fanbase.

So far, The Rave has not updated its website beyond noting the postponement. A new date and further details have not been announced, but on Instagram, the venue added, “We appreciate your understanding. Purchasers will be receiving an email.”

One fan who saw the band in Grand Rapids the night prior reported that lead singer Shaun Morgan “said he was not feeling well” during the concert, and another fan also commented, “I hope you feel better Shaun!! ,” but it’s unknown at this time if the postponement is related to Morgan’s potential illness.

Link

Country Star Lorrie Morgan Cancels Upcoming Concerts and Appearances as Husband Is Hospitalized with Cancer

April 17, 2025

Lorrie Morgan has canceled her upcoming shows due to her husband’s illness.

According to a press release, “Grand Ole Opry star, Lorrie Morgan, has canceled all concerts and appearances for the next two weeks per her manager, Tony Conway of Conway Entertainment Group.”

Morgan’s husband of nearly 15 years, Randy White, has been undergoing treatment for mouth cancer. He is getting treatment in a hospital in Middle Tennessee.

Link

Former Disney Channel Star Hospitalized With ‘Severe’ Medical Condition

May 7, 2025

Former Disney Channel star Rondell Sheridan is asking for his fans’ help amid a recent medical emergency. On Tuesday, May 6, the 66-year-old actor—who many fans recognize from his role on That’s So Raven —took to Instagram to share a video from the hospital, revealing that he was recently diagnosed with pancreatitis. In the concerning video, Sheridan revealed that he went to the hospital last month over what the doctors thought was a “gastric” issue, only to find out after “a ton of tests” that he is dealing with a case of pancreatitis. “My pancreas is inflamed and there’s not much you can do it but just wait for the inflammation to go down,” he said in the clip, while explaining that his condition is going to keep him out of work for “quite some time.” The GoFundMe page in Sheridan’s honor was set up by a friend is seeking to raise $35K to help with the actor’s medical expenses from the “severe” condition. As of the time of publication, the amount donated so far is over $25K.

Researcher's Note – Rondell Sheridan was working in Hollywood between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023

Link

‘Bosch’ author Michael Connelly cancels book tour for ‘a medical issue

May 13, 2025

Michael Connelly, the Los Angeles crime-writing legend whose books include the Harry Bosch and Lincoln Lawyer series, announced on his Instagram today, May 13 that he would be cancelling dates and postponing his tour for his latest book, “Nightshade.”

Calling it “a medical issue that needs immediate attention and aftercare,” the 68-year-old author apologized to fans for canceling upcoming May and June events in the U.S. and U.K., but he concluded the message on an upbeat note. “Please know that this is only a pause. I’ll get past this and get back out there in the fall. Thank you for understanding.”

The Instagram post had already tallied more than 200 messages of support and goodwill toward the popular novelist.

Link

DENMARK

Royal House announced that Queen Margrethe has been admitted to Rigshospitalet

May 9, 2025

On Thursday afternoon, the Royal House announced that Queen Margrethe [85] has been admitted to Rigshospitalet. On Thursday morning, Queen Margrethe was supposed to have been on an official mission in Hellerup, but shortly before that, the royal house confirmed that she had to cancel due to illness. The news was that Queen Margrethe had caught a cold, and on Thursday afternoon the royal house announced that the queen has now been hospitalized. She was last hospitalized in the fall after she fell at home at Fredensborg.

Link

ISRAEL

Israeli musician Mosh Ben-Ari rushed to hospital after heart condition

May 10, 2025

Israeli musician Mosh Ben-Ari was hospitalized over the weekend at Rabin Medical Center following a cardiac incident and successfully underwent a catheterization procedure. Sources close to Ben-Ari confirmed the details and said the 54-year-old singer is recovering well. “He’s doing just fine,” they added, noting that he’s expected to be discharged from the hospital as early as Sunday. Ben-Ari has two upcoming performances scheduled this month. His team has not yet announced whether the shows will go on as planned and said a decision will be made after consulting with doctors.

Link

AUSTRALIA

Bindi Irwin Misses Annual Steve Irwin Gala Due to Unexpected Medical Emergency: ‘Health Has to Come First,’ Brother Robert Says

May 10, 2025

Bindi Irwin was forced to miss the annual Steve Irwin Gala this year, with her brother Robert Irwin revealing that she is in the midst of a health emergency. At the event in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 10, Robert, 21, shared that his older sister, 26, was undergoing surgery after her appendix ruptured. “She’s going to be OK, but surgery — out of all the things we were ready for, that was not one of them,” Robert exclusively tells PEOPLE, adding that their mother, Terri Irwin, 60, would also be missing the gala — held in honor of late crocodile hunter Steve Irwin — to help Bindi during her recovery. “She’s just come out the other side of endometriosis and now the appendix goes,” the Crikey! It’s the Irwins star continues, adding, “Health is so important — it really is.” Bindi first revealed her endometriosis diagnosis on Instagram in March 2023, before opening up in more detail about her health journey in a PEOPLE cover story in August that year.

Researcher's Note – An Israeli team have done a good study here on vaccine [sic] side effects. They found the following increased risk 42 days post vax:40% Appendicitis, 43% Shingles, 143% Englarged lymph nodes, 224% Myocarditis: Link      

Elevated Risk Of Epilepsy, Appendicitis In Children After COVID-19 Vaccination [sic]: Study: Link    

New Case Reports Released for Pfizer Ages 12-15 and Moderna Ages 18+ Show Myocarditis, Appendicitis, Intestinal Perforation, and More: Link 

Update: Steve Irwin's daughter, Bindi Irwin, recently underwent emergency surgery to remove her appendix—but as it turned out, she had more major procedures done during the health scare. On May 13, Bindi's mom, former Crocodile Hunter star Terri Irwin, took to Instagram with a photo of her 26-year-old daughter in a hospital bed. She then revealed what else her daughter, who has endometriosis, had done during the surgery. "Removing your appendix was expected, but also having 14 endometriosis lesions removed, and a hernia repair, was a lot," Terri concluded. "I love you so much and I know you will recover stronger than ever. ." Link

Link

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DR PAUL ALEXANDER

SLAY NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

———- Forwarded message ———
From: News Addicts <mail@newsaddicts.com>
Date: Sun, May 18, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Subject:  ‘Intentional Act of Terrorism’: At Least 1 Dead After Bomb Rocks Palm Springs Reproductive Center
To: Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com>

EVOL NEWS

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

SLAY NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

EVOL NEWS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Moody’s Blues

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 10:05 AM

By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

On the same day that the fiscal hawks among the House Republicans blocked their own party’s tax and spending bill because it pushes up the budget deficit in the short run, Moody’s downgraded US government debt from Aaa to Aa1. Moody’s said that expanding budget deficits mean US government borrowing will rise at an accelerating rate, pushing interest rates up over the long term. In fact, Moody’s didn’t believe that any current budget proposals under consideration by lawmakers would do anything significant to reduce the persistent gap between government spending and revenues. According to the rating agency, successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.

In November 2023, Moody’s lowered the US rating outlook to negative from stable while affirming the nation’s rating at Aaa, so the downgrade was just a matter of time. On Friday, Moody’s shifted its outlook on US debt to stable, noting the nation retains exceptional credit strength such as the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in Meet the Press, on Sunday, said that Moody’s was a lagging indicator and that this has been caused by the Biden administration. After the downgrade, US treasury yields jumped from about 4.44% to almost 4.50% on Friday. This morning, it climbed further to 4.52%. Moody’s is the last of the three big rating agencies to downgrade US debt. Fitch downgraded the US in August 2023 by one level to AA+, and S&P was the first major credit agency to strip the US of its AAA rating back in 2011. Moody’s downgrade does not tell markets anything they did not know and in fact, recent movements in US treasury yields and the US dollar may be of more concern than the official downgrade by a rating agency.

Earlier on Friday, five Republican members of the House Budget Committee voted against advancing the “one big, beautiful bill”, four because they think it front-loads tax cuts in the next few years and delays spending cuts, causing a rise in the budget deficit in the short run. They want bigger cuts in social programs and a faster removal of clean-energy tax credits. On Sunday, the House Budget Committee resumed its session and finally approved the measure for floor action. The Republicans still hope to get the bill through the full House of Representatives before Memorial Day (May 26). Trump wants the bill passed by both the House and the Senate by Independence Day (July 4).

Week ahead

Today, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US will be published. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks at the Atlanta Fed’s “Financial Intermediation In Transition” conference in Florida. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson And Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan give keynote remarks at the same event. Probably more relevant for monetary policy is Bostic’s interview on Bloomberg TV today. In an interview released on Friday, Bostic said he expected only one rate cut this year, because the uncertainty about the economic outlook is unlikely to resolve itself quickly, and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation. Elsewhere, New York Fed President John Williams speaks in a moderated conversation at an event organized by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A at the University of Minnesota.

On Tuesday, the German PPI and the Canadian CPI for April will be released. Euro zone consumer confidence for May is also scheduled. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch delivers a keynote speech, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone appears in pre-recorded video interview, and ECB’s Knot presents DNB’s Financial Stability Overview. Across the channel, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill also speaks. Across the pond, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin gives a speech at the Richmond Fed’s Investing in Rural America Conference. Boston Fed President Susan Collins will host a Fed Listens event and offer brief remarks, but no discussion of current monetary policy and the outlook. More interesting is St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem’s speech on the economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Minnesota, including a Q&A.

On Wednesday, we get Japan’s trade balance for April, and the UK CPI and RPI for April. The ECB’s Guindos presents the Financial Stability Review and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane discusses “Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy,” perhaps a bit academic at this time. ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks at an event near Madrid. In Florida, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack  participate in a panel discussion at the “Financial Intermediation In Transition” conference. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a Fed Listens event.

On Thursday, a lot of survey data for May will be published: the German Ifo index, the HCOB PMIs for manufacturing and services for the Euro zone and individual countries, and the S&P Global PMIs for manufacturing and services for the UK and the US. We also get US initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 17, and US existing home sales for April. The ECB publishes its account of the April 16-17 policy meeting.

We also get a lot of central bank speakers. Starting with the ECB, Governor Robert Holzmann delivers opening remarks at the OeNB conference on “Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts.” The ECB’s Vujcic delivers an introductory presentation on the topic: “In Uncharted Waters: Macroeconomic Prospects in the Conditions of a Trade War.” ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson gives a speech on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, the Netherlands. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and Spanish central-bank head Jose Luis Escriva speak at a conference on “Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics.” Finally, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel holds a press conference with the German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil in Banff, Canada.

On behalf of the BoE, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on a panel on “climate liquidity crisis – the rising financial risks of climate change,” BoE rate-setter Swati Dhingra speaks on a panel titled “Made in the UK: trade and productivity in British firms 2005-2022,” and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill delivers keynote speech at Austrian central bank conference mentioned earlier.

On Friday, the ECB’s Philip Lane holds a lecture on “Inflation and disinflation in the euro area” at the European University Institute in Florence. On the other side of the Atlantic, Canadian retail sales for March and US new home sales for April will be published. New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at a New York Fed event. He will have a prepared text and there is a Q&A. By the end of the week, the House Republicans should pass their tax and spending bill in order to meet their self-imposed deadline.

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/

US Crude Oil Output to Peak As Early As This Year: Kpler

by Tyler Durden

Monday, May 05, 2025 – 12:25 PM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

U.S. crude oil supply will rise more slowly than expected for the rest of 2025 and in 2026 and peak as early as this year, as WTI benchmark prices below $60 per barrel are testing the breakeven point of shale production, energy flows intelligence firm Kpler said on Monday.

Oil prices have slipped by more than 15% since the beginning of April as the market fears recessions from the U.S. tariffs and oversupply from the aggressive production hikes from OPEC+. Prices dipped early on Monday after the OPEC+ group decided on Saturday to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading at about $57 per barrel—a price point that is below the breakeven levels for many shale wells, especially those outside the prime acreage and hottest spots in the Permian.

With the low oil prices, Kpler has now cut its U.S. crude supply forecast by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 170,000 bpd for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, “as weaker prices threaten to slow shale production.”

“With WTI, the main US benchmark crude, now near breakeven levels for new wells, producers are likely to cut back drilling,” said the analysts at Kpler.

U.S. shale producers are the most reactive to oil price changes and they are typically quick to follow the price trends. Lower margins are prompting caution among the American oil industry, Kpler noted.

The latest OPEC+ move to fight for market share and discipline U.S. shale is putting pressure on U.S. crude output, said Kpler, which now expects America’s crude production to peak in 2025 and gradually decline after that.

Despite steady near-term activity, growth is slowing in the U.S. shale patch, and U.S. crude output is set to peak this year, Kpler noted.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE

INDIA

INDIA PAKISTAN

CANADA

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO/USA: 1.1268 UP 0.01195 PTS OR 120 BASIS POINTS

USA/ YEN 144.95 DOWN 0.523 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3381 UP .01246 OR 125 BASIS PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3941 DOWN 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 0.12 PTS OR 0.00%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 12.33 PTS OR 0.05%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .64%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:    ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP DOWN 12.33 PTS OR 0.05%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 0.12 PTS OR 0.00%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.64%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 255.09 PTS OR 0.28%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 3244.60

silver:$32.60

USA dollar index early MONDAY  morning: 100.05 DOWN 0.90 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.

MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.109% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.491% UP 5 FULL POINTS AND 0/100  BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.223 UP 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.613 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.597 UP 2 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :  MID DAY MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1252 UP 0.0105 OR 105 basis points

USA/Japan: 144/96 DOWN 0.533 OR YEN IS UP 53 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7280 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts  to 1.3943

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The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.2149,  CNY ON SHORE ..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.2149

TURKISH LIRA:  38.85 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.460

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from TUESDAY at  4.512% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.996 UP 10 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.006 UP 2 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3232.00

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.33

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 14.75 PTS OR 0.17%

GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 167.55 pts or 0.20%

FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 3.16 pts or 0.04%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 34.50 pts or 0.25 %

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 489.47 or 1.20%

WTI Oil price  62/58 11 EST/

Brent Oil:  65.01 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  80.25 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  75/ 100      

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.7280 UP 7 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.171 UP 1 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.778 UP 1 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1236 UP 0.0098 OR 98 BASIS POINTS//

British Pound: 1.3354 UP .0097 OR 97 basis pts/

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.7065 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.485

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.91 DOWN .575 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3960 UP 0.0011 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 11 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 62.46

Brent OIL:  65.34

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.462

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 PTS to 4.923%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT  3.970%

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.172 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.775 UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 100.29 DOWN 0.62 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.85 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  81.74 UP 1 AND  25/100 roubles

GOLD  $3234 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 32.38(3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 331.99 OR 0.78%

NASDAQ 100 UP 22.24 PTS OR 0.10%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.19 UP 0.90 PTS OR 5.92%

GLD: $ 298.03 UP 3.79 PTS OR 1.29%

SLV/ $29.42 UP 0.12 PTS OR OR 0.41%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED

end

TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS

Traders Buy Bonds, Stocks, Bitcoin, & Bullion As Moody’s Confirms Trump Is Right

MORNING NEWS

Moody’s Downgrades USA Credit Rating From Aaa

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 11:00 AM

Earlier this week, we noted that short-dated USA sovereign CDS were trading wider than China and Greece as trade policy uncertainty and the debt ceiling ‘X-date’ loomed…

…well, it appears Moody’s Rating Agency noted it too… because they just downgraded the Government of United States of America’s (US) long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlook to stable from negative.

The one-notch cut comes more than a year after Moody’s changed its outlook on the US rating to negative, with Moody’s joining Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in grading the world’s biggest economy below the top, triple-A position.

This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.

Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. 

We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration. 

Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat. 

In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. 

The US’ fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared to other highly-rated sovereigns.

The stable outlook reflects balanced risks at Aa1. 

The US retains exceptional credit strengths such as the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency. In addition, while recent months have been characterized by a degree of policy uncertainty, we expect that the US will continue its long history of very effective monetary policy led by an independent Federal Reserve. 

The stable outlook also takes into account institutional features, including the constitutional separation of powers among the three branches of government that contributes to policy effectiveness over time and is relatively insensitive to events over a short period. 

While these institutional arrangements can be tested at times, we expect them to remain strong and resilient.

The US’ long-term local- and foreign-currency country ceilings remain at Aaa. 

The Aaa local-currency ceiling reflects a small government footprint in the economy and extremely low risk of currency and balance of payment crises. 

The foreign-currency ceiling at Aaa reflects the country’s strong policy effectiveness and an open capital account, reducing transfer and convertibility risks.

RATIONALE FOR THE RATINGS DOWNGRADE TO Aa1

Over more than a decade, US federal debt has risen sharply due to continuous fiscal deficits. 

During that time, federal spending has increased while tax cuts have reduced government revenues. 

As deficits and debt have grown, and interest rates have risen, interest payments on government debt have increased markedly.

Without adjustments to taxation and spending, we expect budget flexibility to remain limited, with mandatory spending, including interest expense, projected to rise to around 78% of total spending by 2035 from about 73% in 2024.

If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, which is our base case, it will add around $4 trillion to the federal fiscal primary (excluding interest payments) deficit over the next decade.

As a result, we expect federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation. 

We anticipate that the federal debt burden will rise to about 134% of GDP by 2035, compared to 98% in 2024.

Despite high demand for US Treasury assets, higher Treasury yields since 2021 have contributed to a decline in debt affordability. 

Federal interest payments are likely to absorb around 30% of revenue by 2035, up from about 18% in 2024 and 9% in 2021. The US general government interest burden, which takes into account federal, state and local debt, absorbed 12% of revenue in 2024, compared to 1.6% for Aaa-rated sovereigns.

While we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics.

Moody’s couldn’t help but take a shot at Trump’s tariffs:

The US economy is unique among the sovereigns we rate.

It combines very large scale, high average incomes, strong growth potential and a track-record of innovation that supports productivity and GDP growth. 

While GDP growth is likely to slow in the short term as the economy adjusts to higher tariffs, we do not expect that the US’ long-term growth will be significantly affected.

But they did say something positive…

Despite reserve diversification by central banks globally over the past twenty years, we expect the US dollar to remain the dominant global reserve currency for the foreseeable future.

…

Moreover, the resilience of the US sovereign rating to shocks is supported by strong monetary and macroeconomic policy institutions.

Although policy has been less predictable in recent months, relative to what has typically been the case in the US and other highly-rated sovereigns, we expect that monetary and macroeconomic policy effectiveness will remain very strong, preserving macroeconomic and financial stability through business cycles.

The timing is exceptional, as Republicans try to get Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ out of committee… and as everyone knows, there’s no such thing as a coincidence in Washington.

US equity markets are trading down after hours on the news:

Trump’s gonna be pissed!!

END

What Downgrade? Stocks & Bonds Surge Into The Green After Moody’s Cut

by Tyler Durden

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 10:24 AM

Despte all the doomsaying and blame-scaping following Moody’s downgrade late on Friday night, the market has well and truly shrugged off the FUD (for now).

US equity markets have ripped higher from the cash open with The Dow erasing all of the losses sine Friday’s cash close…

2Y Treasury yields are now lower on the day also…

As we detailed here and here, this is not the end of the world.

AFTERNOON NEWS:

USA DATA

US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 Years

by Tyler Durden

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 02:00 PM

Since December’s Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board’s headline index has decelerated rapidly with April data released today plunging 1.0% MoM – the biggest drop since March 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, Consumer Sentiment (cough UMich Democrats) and Stock Prices were the biggest negative contributors, while New Manufacturing orders (hard data) and Credit were the biggest positive contributors…

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged the total index level down to its lowest since February 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

“The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

“Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April. 

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. 

However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. 

The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.

Source: Bloomberg

So the economy is doomed (ish) because stocks and sentiment are down… because investors are pricing in a doomed economy…? 

Perhaps the word ‘leading’ in this index is misleading…

USE ECONOMIC NEWS

Biden Diagnosed With ‘Aggressive’ Stage IV Prostate Cancer

Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 04:15 PM

Fresh on the heels of the Trump administration dumping the Biden-Hur tapes to Axios (revealing what we all knew – Biden was totally cooked & we still don’t know who was actually running the country for four years), the Biden family announced that the former president has an aggressive form of prostate cancer. 

The news comes five days after a small nodule was found in the 82-year-old Biden’s prostate after a “routine physical exam,” which “necessitated further evaluation.”

According to the family statement, “On Friday, he [Biden] was diagnosed with prostate cancer, characterized by a Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5) with metastasis to the bone. While this represents a more aggressive form of the disease, the cancer appears to be hormone-sensitive which allows for effective management.”

A Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5) is the highest risk category for prostate cancer. The scores range from 6 to 10, with a score of 9 indicating an aggressive cancer with a high likelihood of spreading.

The fact that it has spread beyond the prostate classifies it as Stage IV – with bone metastases common in advanced prostate cancer.

President Trump and First Lady Melania wished Biden ‘a fast and successful recovery.’

And wait…

Which of course begs several questions…

https://x.com/Timcast/status/1924210709375693222?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1924210709375693222%7Ctwgr%5Ef59b25d97aa7fe0370c2aae8e84df25463c0d619%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fbiden-diagnosed-aggre

END

House Republicans Advance Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” After Weekend Of Negotiationn

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 12:00 AM

Following a Friday fracas on Capitol Hill which saw House Republicans fail to advance President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” out of the House Budget Committee, Republicans on said Committee did just that after several GOP deficit hawks relented. And while the bill still has a couple of stops before it can hit the House Floor, passage to the Senate could come as early as the end of this week.

The measure passed narrowly, 17-16, with all Democrats opposed and four Republicans; Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma – voting “present” after voting “No” on the bill in a 16-21 vote just two days earlier. The sudden turnaround followed a weekend of furious negotiations that remain largely behind closed doors.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) met with fellow lawmakers shortly before Sunday’s vote and told reporters that there had been “some minor modifications,” several sources posted on X. Johnson said the bill, which includes making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and reforming Medicaid, is now “on track” for a House floor vote toward the end of this week.

The vote was a big win for Johnson and Trump, coming just two days after Republican opposition torpedoed the bill’s first attempt at committee passage. Despite this procedural victory, the legislation must still clear the House Rules Committee and secure a vote on the House floor, where Republicans hold only a razor-thin majority, Axios reports.

Norman, one of the Republicans who shifted his position, said he was “excited about the changes” in the works for the bill.

Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) confirmed during the Sunday night session that “most likely there would be some changes” to the measure before it reaches the floor – but he couldn’t comment on specifics or any side deals that might have been struck.

The panel’s reversal came after it initially rejected the legislation Friday, setting off a scramble to renegotiate terms with holdout Republicans. One of the most contentious elements has been the GOP’s proposed Medicaid overhaul, with conservatives pushing for deeper structural changes and moderates raising concerns about the political risks.

Even if the package passes the House, Senate Republicans are expected to propose their own revisions. To that end, Johnson has also been working to secure buy-in from blue state Republicans by exploring a compromise on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap.

On Friday, Trump did his usual shit-talking to pressure Republicans into line – posting on Truth Social; “We don’t need ‘GRANDSTANDERS’ in the Republican Party. STOP TALKING, AND GET IT DONE!”

END

ZH At The White House: Epstein, Clinton Body Count & Proxy Wars

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 03:25 PM

ZeroHedge White House correspondent Liam Cosgrove was in the “new media” seat during Monday’s press briefing, where he asked several questions related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, the ‘Clinton body count,’ and whether the US will continue funding proxy wars overseas.

Proxy Wars

We then asked about the US funding proxy wars overseas.

“The president has made several moves towards peace in multiple fronts; India-Pakistan, with the Houthis, talking with Iran, talking with Putin. Biden didn’t even talk to Putin during the entire span of the war which is crazy, considering two nuclear powers were engaged in a proxy war. So I do admire these moves by the current president – I’ll be honest, however, as of today we are still funding Israel’s and Ukraine’s wars. So can Americans expect to finally be done financing foreign wars at some point? Do you consider that one of the president’s goals?”

To which Leavitt replied: “I can summarize the president’s foreign policy agenda with two words: America First, and that means putting the American people and the American taxpayer first. And that’s why the president is moving as quickly as he possibly can, and working overtime to end these conflicts in both Israel and in Gaza and also the Russia-Ukraine war. As you all know, the president will be speaking with Putin at 10:00. He plans to call President Zelensky when that call concludes.

Clinton Body Count & Epstein Intelligence Links

Cosgrove then dove into the weekend discussion about a Truth Social post by President Trump about the so-called ‘Clinton body count‘ – a spate of mysterious deaths over the past several decades linked to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

“Trump posted to Truth Social a video highlighting what most people call the Clinton body count,” asked Cosgrove, who described a “strange number of suicides that seem to happen in circles” – citing a Saturday headline from the Washington Post suggesting that Trump’s recent Truth Social post was a ‘conspiracy theory.’

“President Trump posted Truth Social,  a video highlighting what most people call the Clinton body count, which is the strange number of su*cides that seem to happen in Clinton circles,” said Cosgrove. “I have a headline here from the Washington Post that said, ‘Trump peddles false conspiracy theories tying the Clintons to several deaths.’

Cosgrove then noted the death of Mark Middleton, “who was a former Clinton White House aide, who was found dead on a Clinton Foundation property. I’ll just quote from the Arkansas Times. Middleton apparently shot himself in the chest with a sh0tgun and also hung himself from a tree with an extension cord. So I have no idea how somebody commits suicide that way, but if the Washington Post is here, maybe you can enlighten us as to how that was actually a suicide.

“That’s just a lead into my question about the most famous Clinton-related su*cide, which is that of Jeffrey Epstein. There’s still a lot of questions around that case,” Cosgrove continued. “You’ve released phase one of the Epstein files. What was missing from that is any connection to his ties to intelligence agencies. And that’s really the whole story, that not just trafficking young girls, but doing it on behalf of intelligence agencies, and even potentially as part of a blackmail ring with potential ties to the Israeli government.

“For phase two, when can we expect it? Will it have  information pertaining to those aspects of the Epstein case?“

Leavitt deflected, responding: “I know the Attorney General has committed to releasing those files. I would defer you to the Department of Justice on her timeline, but when she has made a promise in the past, she has kept it, and I’m certain that she will in this case as well.”

Ties to Israel

While Epstein’s ties to Israel are numerous and not necessarily conclusive, there is perhaps no better deep dive than Martyr Made’s 5-hour podcast into the topic. Highly recommended if you have a long trip planned. If not, here are the core pieces of evidence:

• Trump’s current Deputy Director of the FBI Dan Bongino said during an episode of the Tim Pool podcast that a “absolutely sure” that Epstein was “an intelligence asset for people in the Middle East.”
• Ghislaine Maxwell’s father, Robert Maxwell, was a Mossad asset. This comes from several sources but one of high-integrity is storied journalist Seymour Hersh.
• In 2007, Southern Florida Attorney Alex Acosta chose to not press charges against Epstein despite numerous young girls alleging abuse. Acosta reportedly did so because he was told that Epstein “belonged to intelligence” and that it was “above his paygrade” and to “leave it alone”.
• Epstein’s lawyer who brokered this deal with Acosta was Alan Dershowitz who self-admittedly has been “working for the state of Israel” for decades and was key in negotiating the release of the Mossad agents rounded up after 9/11 caught photographing and celebrating the World Trade Center attacks... thus the lawyer has a history of brokering  non-prosecution deals on behalf of Mossad.
• Epstein’s chief financier, Leslie Wexner, founded the Mega Group which was a collection of billionairs with the explicit aim of promoting Israeli interests.

Cosgrove was formerly with Max Blumenthal’s Grayzone outlet and can be found on X with the handle @Cosgrove_iv.

END

Why Keynesians Got Inflation And Growth Wrong

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Inflation is not soaring, and economic growth is solid…

The Tariff Tantrum has proven that consensus was wrong about soaring inflation and an economic slump. Why? The exaggerated perception of tariffs’ economic impact stemmed from the belief that American consumers would bear the full burden of tariffs. Why were they wrong?

The first reason was that most analyses relied on a simplistic calculation of tariffs, treating supply chains as if they only involved buyers and sellers. Supply chains are very complex, and most exporters must deal with overcapacity challenges and working capital problems. Thus, the impact of tariffs is likely to be absorbed by numerous links in the supply chain, including transport, storage, distribution, manufacturing, retailers and purchasing chains.

Furthermore, most exporting companies face a significant problem of overcapacity and working capital; if they don’t sell their products fast and effectively, their debt soars, and the losses at warehouses can lead to a chain of bankruptcies.

Ignoring that the world of exporter businesses, particularly in China, has a structural overcapacity problem and mounting financial challenges due to working capital build was one of the mistakes made by excessively pessimistic analysts. Therefore, there is no sign of inflation soaring anywhere. The Export Price Index rose only 0.1% in April and 2.0% year on year, while the Import Price Index rose a modest 0.1% in the month and 0.1% year on year. Prices dropped by 0.5% in the final demand PPI (producer price index) for April. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core April PPI declined versus previous readings.

United States retail sales rose by 0.1% in April, up 5.2 % from April 2024, and following a large 1.7% increase in March 2025. Inflation hit a four-year low in April, a month that should have reflected a massive increase due to tariffs, according to consensus estimates, while wage growth rose to a four-year high.

Inflation in April slowed to the slowest pace since 2021. Egg prices fell by 12%, and prices for bakery items, meat, and poultry also decreased. Americans are not suffering the apocalyptic inflation that interventionists predicted. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%—an annualised rate of 2.3%—and the lowest in four years. Furthermore, core CPI rose only 2.8%, showing no sign of inflationary pressures.

The first quarter’s gross domestic product was positive. Despite a 0.3% decline, the private sector increased by 1.6% annually. Government spending declined 5.1%. In the past week, JP Morgan has removed its call for a recession and the Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a healthy 2.4% GDP growth for the second quarter, an estimate shared by Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics.

The key to understanding the lack of inflation is to look at monetary aggregates. Tariffs do not cause inflation. There are other reasons we can use to criticise tariffs, but not inflation causation. Market participants have realised that tariffs are a tool for negotiating better trade deals and facilitating the opening of markets rather than being used solely as a protectionist measure. The same reason why you need nuclear weapons to avoid a nuclear war: tariffs are required to force better trade deals.

The cause of inflation is the soaring government spending, which leads to an increase in both the money supply and money velocity. Deficit spending is down 35% between February and April 2025 compared to the same period last year. While money supply is rising, albeit at a modest pace, velocity of money is gradually declining. The public sector is slowly shrinking and the private sector is strengthening; hence, there is no real inflation risk.

The only thing that can make aggregate prices rise, consolidate, and continue is the debasement of the purchasing power of the currency due to uncontrolled government spending. Thankfully, government spending is starting to moderate.

The United States economy is stronger than it appears, and the negotiating power of importers is larger than estimated due to two factors: the previously mentioned overcapacity challenge of most exporters and the global relevance of the U.S. market. Exporters cannot substitute their U.S. sales with other markets. Even the European Union is relatively weak as a market.

In the following months, we will likely see more trade deals, and most concerns from market participants will probably vanish or at least be significantly reduced. Ultimately, the Tariff Tantrum has proven that Keynesian analysis is wrong and that successful trade deals were the goal of the administration.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON/

USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT

KING NEWS

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Biden-Hur Tape Drops, And Boy Is It Rough – Listen To All Five HouRS

Friday, May 16, 2025 – 07:47 PM

Update: Listen to all five hours of the Hur-Biden interview below:

*  *  *

A segment of former President Joe Biden’s October 2023 interview with special counsel Robert Hur just dropped, and boy is it rough.

Biden couldn’t remember details such as when his son Beau died, when he left office as vice president, what year Donald Trump was elected, and why he had classified documents in his possession that he shouldn’t have had.

According to Axios, which released the recording, Biden frequently slurred words or muttered, and “appears to validate Hur’s assertion that jurors in a trial likely would have viewed Biden as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

Listen:

Hur elected not to prosecute Biden for mishandling classified documents based partly on the former president’s pea-soup brain – angering Republicans as Trump was facing his own charges of mishandling classified information.

It’s also of course notable because the MSM insisted Biden was “sharp,” and slammed Hur’s assertions as politically motivated. 

END

Vince Foster, James McDougal, Seth Rich: Trump Posts Wild ‘Clinton Body Count’ C

Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 07:20 AM

President Trump raised eyebrows on Saturday – posting a ‘Clinton body count’ clip to Truth Social that suggests several mysterious deaths over the past few decades are linked to the Clintons.

Mentioned in the clip are former Clinton White House Deputy Counsel Vince Foster, Clinton associate James McDougal, Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich, and the mysterious death of JFK Jr. which paved the way for Hillary Clinton to become a US Senator.

Watch:

h/t Karli Bonne

Of note, Foster was a mentor to Hillary when they worked together at the Rose Law Firm in Little Rock, Arkansas.  When Bill Clinton was confirmed as the 42nd President of the United States on January 20, 1993, Foster took a role as his Deputy White House Counsel. Six months later, to the day, Foster was found dead in Fort Marcy Park, along the Potomac River, of an apparent “suicide” resulting from a gun shot from a .38 caliber revolver.

Interestingly, the “Clinton Body Count” phrase was originally coined by writer Danny Casolaro in the late 1980s. Casolaro “committed suicide” in 1991, while working on a story supposedly involving an international cabal.

The last time #ClintonBodyCount was trending on X (formerly Twitter) was when Clinton pal Jeffrey Epstein had reportedly attempted suicide (before he was found dead in his cell) while awaiting trial on underage sex-trafficking charges.

It’s a big list…

END

Supreme Court Sides With Trump – Allows Removal Of ‘Protected Status’ From 300,000 Venezuelan Migr

Monday, May 19, 2025 – 03:00 PM

The Supreme Court handed a major win to the Trump administration on Monday, granting its request to proceed with revoking legal protections for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants.

In a brief order, the justices approved an emergency application from the administration, allowing officials to undo a Biden-era extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that shields Venezuelans from deportation and grants them work permits. Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was the lone dissenter, indicating she would have denied the request.

The decision allows Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to move forward with a policy reversal that would strip protections from more than 300,000 Venezuelans who were granted TPS due to political and humanitarian crises in their home country.

TPS, created by Congress in 1990, offers safe harbor to nationals of countries suffering from war, natural disaster, or other emergencies. Individuals granted status can legally remain and work in the U.S. for renewable 18-month periods.

At the center of the legal fight is a TPS designation made in October 2023 and extended again in January—just before Trump returned to office. The protections were originally set to expire in October 2026, but in February, Noem moved to unwind the designations early, triggering a legal challenge.

In April, a federal judge in the Northern District of California blocked the rollback, citing potential racial bias behind the move. But the Trump administration fired back, arguing the judiciary had no business second-guessing decisions made under the executive branch’s immigration authority.

At the time, Trump border czar Tom Homan called the move “Another activist judge making a stupid ruling,” adding “I’ve been around since 1984 — and ‘temporary protected status’ is never temporary.”

“Bf you look at that decision, it’s based on opinion, not the rule of law.”

🚨Tom Homan sounds off on judge blocking Trump’s effort to end TPS for Venezuelan illegals:

“Another activist judge making a stupid ruling.”

“I’ve been around since 1984 — and ‘temporary protected status’ is never temporary.”

“If you look at that decision, it’s based on… pic.twitter.com/fymufGw3HO— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) April 1, 2025

h/t Western Lensman

Solicitor General D. John Sauer, in the emergency application to the Supreme Court, said, “The court’s order contravenes fundamental executive branch prerogatives and indefinitely delays sensitive policy decisions in an area of immigration policy that Congress recognized must be flexible, fast-paced and discretionary.”

The move was challenged by the National TPS Alliance and individual Venezuelans, who argued the administration was trying to dodge judicial oversight altogether.

“It should be unremarkable that federal courts say what the law is,” their lawyers wrote.

Monday’s ruling comes just days after the high court dealt a blow to Trump’s immigration playbook in a separate case. In that decision, the court ruled that immigrants detained under the Alien Enemies Act must be given a real chance to contest deportation.

While litigation over the TPS rollback continues in lower courts, the Supreme Court’s order clears the way for the Trump administration to begin rescinding protections while the legal fight plays out.

GREG HUNTER

Every European Country Reinstituting Drafts, They Want War – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On May 17, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis18 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post) 

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with an update on his big turn toward war in Ukraine with Russia.  Two weeks ago on USAW, Armstrong predicted, “After May 15, war is turning up (in Ukraine) and it will be turning up into 2026.”  That prediction paid off to the exact day as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended on May 15 after just two hours, and neither side agreed to meet again.  War is already here, and there is no stopping it with peace talks.  Armstrong says, “Putin knows and understands this is not a just a war with Ukraine, this is a war with NATO.  If Putin agrees to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, what’s that going to do?  Absolutely nothing.  You have every European country reinstituting drafts.  In Germany, even people 60 years old have been told to report.  Poland has ordered every able-bodied man to show up for military training.  They want war.  Their economy is collapsing.  You hear about this de-dollarization, and it’s not happening.  The capitalization of just the New York Stock Exchange is worth more than all of Europe combined.  That’s just the New York Stock Exchange. . . . You’ve got Macron in France, they call him the ‘Petite Napolean.’. . . Without war, Europe is going to collapse.  It’s in a sovereign debt crisis . . . They have done everything against the economy.”

Armstong thinks Russia will finish off Ukraine sometime in 2027 and Europe a year or two after that.  And, Yes, Armstrong still thinks Ukraine will disappear from the map.

Armstrong urged his contacts in Washington to “Get the hell out of NATO.”  It seems some in the US government are considering this warning as this headline breaks today: “US to Begin European Troop Withdrawal Talks, NATO Ambassador Says.”  Armstrong says, “I have been told by some very influential people on Capitol Hill ‘you’re right, we agree.’  That’s what I have been told. . . . I have been complaining about this for months, and my view is Europe is committing suicide, and let’s not be part of it this time.”

Is President Trump getting this message?  Armstrong says, “Yes, I believe so. . . . Trump also said a peace deal does not seem likely, the hatred is too great on both sides.”

The neocons back home also want war with Russia and have wanted it for a very long time.  Trump is either going to make peace or walk away and not participate.  Maybe this is why former FBI Director James Comey put out his not-so-cryptic call to assassinate President Trump with his “86 47” now deleted Instagram post.  Comey was the man who held Armstrong in prison illegally for contempt for 7 years.  Armstrong says, “Comey has always been part of it.  Just for the record, he was the US Attorney in New York.  He’s the one who kept me in contempt until the Supreme Court said what the hell is going on?  Then, they had to release me.”

How did Armstrong land in jail?  Armstrong says, “They asked me to put in 10 billion dollars . . . to take over Russia, and I refused.  It was Comey that was the US Attorney for New York, and he kept me in civil contempt, which has a maximum sentence of 18 months, and he kept me in for 7 years.  He kept rolling it and rolling it and rolling it. . . . I was told if I put in $10 billion, I would get $100 billion back.  They intended to have all the assets of Russia going through the trading desk of New York.  All the oil, gold, diamonds, platinum, you name it, they would have it all.  And I said, no, I’m out.  I am not into regime change.”

Fast forward to today, and the powers in Europe still think they can take Russia and steal their assets to fix the extreme financial problems in Europe.  Pensions, banks and bonds are in deep financial trouble in Europe.  Stealing from Russia and gaining control of $75 trillion in natural resources is why they want and need war.  Armstrong says, “They went to negative interest rates in 2014.  I warned them.  I said listen; you are out of your minds.  You are syphoning money out of the bank reserves and pension finds.  It’s a basket case.  It really is.  They have no appreciable economy. . . it’s shrinking, the number of actual businesses has shrunk in Germany.  (Germany is 25% of the EU economy.)  This is why they need war.”

Armstrong says Europe is going to lose and lose badly in a war with Russia.  Armstrong says if Trump gets out of NATO, the US will thrive and do much better financially than Europe.  Let’s all hope President Trump gets us out of NATO before it’s too late.

There is much more in the 60-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis on war, default, depression and unpayable debt that will make a huge mess for the world for 5.17.25.

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After the Interview:

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