GOLD CLOSED UP $28.75 TO $3,311.30
SILVER CLOSED UP $0.34 TO $33.34
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3321.75
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $33.59
Bitcoin morning price:$106,360 UP 120 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $107,570 up 1330 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $26.00 TO $1076.75
Palladium price; UP $15.45 TO $1029.80
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,602.15 UP 25.10 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2474.376UP 18.36 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,566.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MAY 6/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2933.64 UP 18.92 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 3018.80 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)
DONATE
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,280.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/20/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/22/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 28
323 C HSBC 53 186
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 178
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 82
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 10
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1
TOTAL: 269 269
MONTH TO DATE: 23,650
JPMORGAN STOPPED 82/269
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024: 269 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 26,900 OZ or 0.8367 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,650 contracts for 2,365,000 OR 73.5614 tonnes)
FOR MAY
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SILVER NOTICES: 73 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 365,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 14,685 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 73.425 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $28.75 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.60 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.35 AT THE SLV: HJUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //A DEPOSIT OF 2.091 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.875 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3911 CONTRACTS TO 141,451 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.65 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4161 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 250 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE AS THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 218 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A 250 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG 450 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4161 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A STRONG 450 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.65) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH
WE HAD A 250 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ:
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 75.165 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 425,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 88.095 MILLION OZ./
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS COMEX OI GAIN+// A 250 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A SMALL 234 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 DAYS, total 3484 contracts: OR 17.420 MILLION OZ (232 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 17.420 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 17.420 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
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RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3911 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 250 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 250 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND NOW MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 75.165 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.0951 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (450 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (TUESDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 73 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 365,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5057 OI CONTRACTS TO 448,000 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 688 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (5057 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $51.40 IN PRICE// TUESDAY///.
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES STANDING!
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
AND NOW MAY: SUMMARY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ADDED
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 74.214 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 83.805 TONNES OF GOLD
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $51.40 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5482 OI CONTRACTS (17.05 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE DURING THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF MAY, AND THROUGHOUT EACH AND EVERY DAY MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MAY CONTRACT MONTH….. A MONSTROUS 83.905 TONNES DESPITE IT BEING AN OFF MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 425 CONTRACT:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 448,000/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 141,451 CONTRACTS!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5482 CONTRACTS WITH 5057 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 425 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5482 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 982 CONTRACTS ISSUED.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 425 CONTRACT) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 5057 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5482 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 83.805 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 0.9455 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR MAY 13 , 15TH AND 19TH ISSUANCE OF 9.589 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 83.805 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 83.805 TONNES OF GOLD.(INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE)
.
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A $51.40 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD OUR STRONG GAIN OF 5480 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (425 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 982 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 18,755 CONTRACTS OR 1,875,500 OZ OR 58.335 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1250 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 58.335 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 58.335 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.642% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 58.335 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3911 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,451 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 250 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 250 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3,911 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 250 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4161 CONTRACTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 20.805 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.65 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.77 PTS OR 0.32%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 152.15 PTS OR 0.64%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 37.69 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.61%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.2183 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2060/ Oil UP TO 62.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.32 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2183 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2060 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.77 PTS OR 0.32%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 152.15 PTS OR 0.64%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 37.69 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.61%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.2183 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2060/ Oil UP TO 62.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.32 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2060 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2060 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5057 CONTRACTS TO 448,000 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $51.40 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (425 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY REMAINS AT 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE GETTING QUITE ANTSY OF GETTING ITS GOLD BACK.
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST FOUR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK
DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5482 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS SMALL AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 982 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE (FRIDAY/MAY 16) AT 9.978TONNES, THIS MONTH WE HAVE RECORDED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY AT 9.978 TONNES!!! TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP IS A HUGE .6780 TONNES.
THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 83.805 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF .9415 TONNES AND TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK: 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK!)//
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING: 83.805 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 222 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 425 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /JUNE 425 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 425 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
- HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED, 982 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY:
INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.4634 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 7 (A RECORD) + ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP MAY 9 OF 0.534 TONNES + MAY 12 AT .5132 TONNES _ MAY 13; QUEUE JUMP OF 2.444 TONNES AND THEN MAY 14 RECORD 6.8800 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN (MAY 15) RECORD OF 9.978 TONNES AND THEN FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 108,900 OZ/3.387 TONNES (MAY 16) MONDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5847 + YESTERDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF .6780 TONNES + TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF .9415 = +EXCHANGE FOR RISK//9.591 TONNES = 83.805 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: STANDING NOW 74.214 TONNES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH) + 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK EQUALS 83.805 TONNES!!
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $51.40/ /)AND THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
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HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MONTH; FINAL GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// MAY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 17.05 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/APRIL 30. WE HAD A STRONG 304 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WEDNESDAY, FOR 30,400 OZ OR 0.9415 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US SIMPLE MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 74.214 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD (MAY 13 MAY 15.MAY 19) EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 9.591 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 83.805 TONNES
THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 83.805 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $51.40
WE HAD A SMALL 214 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5402 CONTRACTS OR 540200 0Z (17.05 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 261m793. contracts: fair volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
MAY
// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
MAY 19
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | . 3 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks 32,954.700 oz (1025 kilobars) ii) Out of JPMorgan enhanced out of London 161,223.600 oz or 403 London good delivery bars iii) Stonex: 2101.440 oz total weight withdrawn: 196,279.400 oz or 6.105 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Into ASAHI dealer: 32,118.849 oz (999 kilobars) in tonnes: .999 tonnes |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 3 ENTRIES i) into HSBC 120,309.042 oz (3742 kilobars) ii) Into Malca: 4340.385oz (135 kilobars) iii) Into Stonex: 4018.875 ( 125 kilobars) total 130,769.742 oz 4,002kilobars or 4.002 tonnes of gold total weight dealer and customer: 5.0 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 269 notice(s) 26900 OZ 0.8367 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 210 contracts 21,000 OZ 0.653 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 23,650 notices 2,365,000 oz 73.425TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1 entry
i) Into ASAHI dealer: 32,118.849 oz (999 kilobars)
in tonnes: .999 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 3 customer entries
3 ENTRIES
i) into HSBC 120,309.042 oz
(3742 kilobars)
ii) Into Malca: 4340.385oz (135 kilobars)
iii) Into Stonex: 4018.875 ( 125 kilobars)
total 130,769.742 oz 4,002kilobars
or 4.002 tonnes of gold
total weight dealer and customer: 5.0 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: 3
3 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks 32,954.700 oz
(1025 kilobars)
ii) Out of JPMorgan enhanced out of London
161,223.600 oz or 403 London good delivery bars
iii) Stonex: 2101.440 oz
total weight withdrawn: 196,279.400 oz
or 6.105 tonnes
adjustments: 1//customer to dealer
a) JPMorgan: 675.171 oz (21 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 479 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 57 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 247 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 304 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE WITNESS A STRONG 30,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.9455 TONNES. THIS FOLLOWS LAST WEEK’S (MAY 15) RECORD BREAKING 9.987 TONNES. FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS WE HAVE RECORDED 24.8212 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS. ALL OF THIS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND ALL GOING TO CENTRAL BANKS. LONDON HAS RECORDED OVER 30 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVING ITS SHORES.
JUNE LOST ONLY 4158 CONTRACTS TO 176,844 JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH. THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS LOOKING AT JUNE OI.WE HAVE 7 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE OUR BIG FIRST DAY NOTICE FRIDAY MAY 30.
JULY GAINED 150 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 4837
We had 269 contracts filed for today representing 26,900 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 269 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 82 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,650 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (479 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (269 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,386,000 OZ OR 74.214 TONNES to which we add 9.591 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk//new totals 83.805 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (23,650 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (479 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (269 x 100 oz) which equals 2,386,000 OZ OR 74.214 TONNES + 9.591 tonnes = 83.805 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 83.805 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,216,370.991 oz 68.938 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,951,535.855 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,325,656.475: or 663.317 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,625,879.350 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,070,616oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 593.176tonnes //
SILVER/COMEX
// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
MAY 19
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 withdrawal entries i) Out of Brinks 469,508.960 oz ii) Out of Delaware 989.986 oz iii) Out of Loomis 600,962.720 oz total weight withdrawal 1,076,466.666 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 DEPOSIT i) Into CNT 600,566.720 oz total deposit: 500,566.720 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 73 CONTRACT(S) (365,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 348 contract (1.740 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 14,685 Contracts (73.425 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
0 deposits into dealer accounts
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 deposit entries//customer side/eligible
1 DEPOSIT
i) Into CNT 600,566.720 oz
total deposit: 500,566.720 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 withdrawal entries
i) Out of Brinks 469,508.960 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 989.986 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 600,962.720 oz
total weight withdrawal 1,076,466.666 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 217.184million oz/500.598 oz million or 43.26%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 168.457 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 500.598Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 421 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 8 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 8 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR TODAY. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 228 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2669 CONTRACTS. JUNE OI REFUSES TO LIQUIDATE
WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE OVER 14 MILLION OZ STAND FOR JUNE/AN OFF MONTH
AS IT IS NOW THE FRONT MONTH. WE HAVE 6 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, FRIDAY MAY 30.
JULY GAINED 3687 CONTRACTS UP TO 108,510
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 73 or 0.365 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 54,224 pitiful//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,685 X5,000 oz = 73.425 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (421) AND the number of notices served upon today (73 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (14,685) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(421) minus number of notices served upon today (73)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 75.165 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 88.095 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 88.095 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 168.457million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 21 WITH GOLD UP $28.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.60 TONNES
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.03 TONNES
MAY 19 WITH GOLD UP $46.65 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 921.60 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.091 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.65/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.784 MILLION OZ
MAY 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.17/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.875 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
Schiff: Strong Dollar Or Exports? Pick One…
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 03:45 PM
Last week, Peter joined Glenn Diesen for an interview on the post-trade deal economy. Peter takes on the myths surrounding Trump’s trade war with China, the real impact of tariffs on Americans, and where he sees the dollar heading as the world’s reserve currency. He explains why the perceived victories of protectionist trade policy are little more than marketing stunts, and warns about the risks of continued US borrowing and a potential dollar crisis.
Peter opens with his signature candor, cutting through the narratives around Trump’s approach to China and the broader trade war. He stresses that Americans have been misled about the true causes of trade deficits and the effectiveness of tariffs:
Well, first of all, Trump declared war and then surrendered and called it a victory. You know, the victory is that he saved us from ourselves, although it’s not a complete save. I don’t think we’re out of the woods. But, you know, Trump never had the cards to win the war in the first place. In the first place, I think he assessed the situation backwards. The whole trade war was misguided anyway, because the trade deficits are not the result of foreigners cheating us or ripping us off or bad trade deals.
He explains how the president’s business acumen translated into a branding exercise in the White House, rather than substantive reform:
I know he’s a great promoter. He’s a great marketer. That I’ll give him. I mean, he won the White House twice, right, so he sold the country on himself as the product. So he did a great job. And, you know, he’s a showman. He had The Apprentice, he had his hotels, his golf courses, you know, some of his other businesses. It’s all about branding, right? He brands the Trump brand. He puts the big Trump on everything, right?… I was curious – what are the lessons for China? Was anything achieved?
Dispelling a common misconception, Peter clearly lays out the economic reality of tariffs—contrary to claims made by several politicians, these taxes are paid by Americans, not by foreign exporters:
But again, the tariffs weren’t even on China. They were an inconvenience for Chinese companies. But the tariffs were on Americans. You know, the Chinese tariffs were on the Chinese. I mean, Trump can only tax Americans, and tariffs are an indirect tax that consumers pay when they buy products that are subject to the tariff. The actual tariff is paid by the importer, which is an American company. Now, if you import directly, right, if you decide to go on some Chinese site and order a product and they mail it directly to you, then, you know, when the package comes through customs, they add the tariff and you’ve got to pay it. The Chinese don’t pay it. The tariffs are paid by Americans. So it’s always been a lie. I pointed that out during the campaign.
When it comes to reducing trade deficits, Peter argues that policy makers want to have their cake and eat it too— pushing for a strong dollar and lower trade deficits at the same time, despite the fact that these aims are fundamentally at odds:
They want both. But of course, you can’t have both. The reason our trade deficits are so big is because the dollar is so overvalued. And so the only real way to make a big dent in the trade deficit is to have a much weaker dollar. I mean, that’ll do it. That’ll just make imports so expensive that Americans won’t be able to afford them, and so the imports will come down. And it will make our stuff a lot cheaper, whatever we got, and so we’ll export more of it. So a weaker dollar would do the trick, but of course the weaker dollar means much higher inflation in the US, which is why they don’t want a weak dollar.
Wrapping up, Peter warns that the current trajectory is unsustainable. With continued deficits, reliance on foreign creditors, and a dollar whose status as the world’s reserve currency is under threat, a reckoning is likely around the corner:
No, I think we’re going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. I mean, that’s just how it’s going to end. We’re going to keep on living beyond our means until we can’t do it anymore. We’re going to keep on borrowing until the lenders stop lending to us. And I think we’re already on that path. The question is, how long does it take to really completely de-dollarize, to kind of sever this lifeline that we have? I don’t know. But, I mean, the process has started. And at some point, the pace is going to accelerate.
For more of Peter’s analysis on the US-China tariff deal, check out Peter’s latest podcast!
MATHEW PIEPENBERG
2.ALASDAIR MACLEOD
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4/On LFTV, Andrew Maguire LIVE FROM THE VAULT 223
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//CATTLE
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.77 PTS OR 0.32%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 152.15 PTS OR 0.64%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 37.69 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.61%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.2183 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2060/ Oil UP TO 62.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.32 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2183 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2060 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2183 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2060 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.77 PTS OR 0.32%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 348.76 PTS OR 1.49%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 37.60 PTS OR 0.10%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.59// EURO RISES TO 1.1319 UP 31 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.517//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.10…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6570/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.676 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.283%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.312
3j Gold at $3309.40. Silver at: 33.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 6 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.25
3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.10// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.517% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8254 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9345 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.537 UP 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.027 UP 6 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.994 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.84
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.8235 UP 12 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.296 UP 12 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.886 UP 11 PTS
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2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Slide As 30Y Yield Rises Above 5%, Oil Jumps On Iran War Fears
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 08:27 AM
US equity futures and global markets are weaker with both tech and small caps underperforming as yields rise (10Y TSY at 4.53% last) and the curve bear steepens. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% with sentiment hit by a CNN report that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. That sent oil higher, while haven assets outperformed; Nasdaq futures also drop 0.6%, with Mag7 names mostly lower and Semis/Cyclicals underperforming. In Europe major markets are mostly lower with the UK leading and France lagging. UK inflation his a 15-month high. Treasury yields ticked above key psychological levels, with the 30-year above 5%. The dollar lost ground against all major currencies pushing the DXY index back below 100 as the yen continues its relentless ascent while Japanese long bonds crater. Commodities are higher this morning, benefiting from the lower dollar and led higher by energy and precious metals with the former higher on elevated geopolitical risk. Oil climbed about 0.7% on a report that Israel could be gearing up for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is another light macro data day with no macro news but with multiple Fed speakers. Earnings from big retailers will be in focus for clues on the impact of tariffs.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.5%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Nvidia -0.7%, Amazon -0.8%, Meta -0.6%). Canada Goose rose 9% after the coat manufacturer posted fourth-quarter revenue that beat estimates. Lowe’s (LOW) climbs 2% after comparable sales beat expectations during the latest quarter as shoppers maintained home spending despite weakening consumer sentiment and economic turbulence.
- Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.3% after the biotechnology company voluntarily withdrew its pending biologics license application for its flu, Covid combination vaccine for adults 50 years and older.
- Target (TGT) slumped 4% after the beleaguered company cut its FY sales outlook, and now sees full year sales declining by single digits after previously seeing growth
- NU Holdings (NU) falls 2.6% after saying said Chief Operating Officer Youssef Lahrech is stepping down, adding to a string of management changes in the upper ranks of Latin America’s standout financial technology firm.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slips 3% after the cybersecurity provider posted quarterly results and gave an outlook. Analysts note subscription and support revenue slightly missed expectations and JPMorgan reduced its price target.
- Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) declines 4% after the video-game publisher announced plans to sell $1 billion of new stock to investors. The offering range is $225 to $232 per share, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) gains 3% after the company reaffirmed its expectations for home sales in its full fiscal year, citing resilience among its affluent buyers.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) tumbles 5% after the Guardian reported that the health insurer secretly paid nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers for ailing residents.
- VF Corp. (VFC) falls 12% after the owner of apparel and footwear brands forecast a wider-than-expected adjusted operating loss from continuing operations for the first quarter.
Target, Lowe’s, Marshalls-owner TJX and Timberland maker VF Corp are all set to report this morning. Any comments on post-tariff pricing adjustments will be key after Walmart warned of price hikes last month, with Trump retorting that the retailer should “eat the tariffs.”
Overnight, republicans said they reached an agreement on state and local tax deductions for President Donald Trump’s economic bill after negotiating through the night. While investors have rushed back into stocks on hopes that the US is easing off its tariff threats, there are questions about whether gains can be sustained as concerns about fiscal deficits and mounting debt drive bond yields higher.
“There’s a lot of optimism that has been discounted in markets and it seems that many investors believe that the trade war is over,” said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia. “However, the underlying issues which have been at the root of tensions for decades have not been tackled.”
Equity trading volumes were light across the board. The UK and European Union extended the bidding window for debt auctions on Wednesday in response to Bloomberg LP technical issues. Globally, the yield-curve for government debt steepened across most markets as worries mount around swelling debt and deficits. The rate for 10-year US Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.53%, while the yield for gilts with a similar tenure rose six basis points to 4.76%.
“The direction of travel is obviously higher,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “At the core of it, fiscal is in question, and it’s not just a US problem, it’s a global problem.”
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its call on US stocks and Treasuries on expectations that interest-rate cuts will support bonds and boost company earnings. The S&P 500 Index will reach 6,500 by the second quarter of 2026, they wrote. They also see the dollar continuing to weaken as the US’s economic growth premium relative to peers fades.
“The US dollar has of course lost its luster as the undisputed safe reserve asset,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp.
In Europe the Stoxx 600 is on course to snap a four-day win streak as it falls 0.6%. Retail, auto, and travel shares are leading declines while utilities outperform as the only sector up in Europe. major markets are mostly lower with the UK leading and France lagging. UK inflation his a 15-month high. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Genfit shares climb as much as 7.6% after the French biotech company said it will receive a €26.5 million milestone payment from Ipsen.
- SSE rises as much as 1.9% after the UK utility company cut its five-year spending plan by £3 billion as projects slow amid planning delays, while also releasing full-year results.
- Electrolux Professional rallies as much as 8.5% to its highest level since March 26 after Handelsbanken upgraded its view on the Swedish professional appliances maker to buy from hold, projecting the company will gain market share in the US.
- Infineon shares rise as much as 1.8% after the chipmaker said it’s collaborating with Nvidia on a new power delivery infrastructure for AI data centers.
- Orion gains as much as 4.9%, hitting a record high after the Finnish drug company says its partner MSD has expanded the development program for opevesostat to now include women’s cancers.
- Ypsomed shares rise as much as 6.8% to the highest in more than three months after the drug packaging company forecast sales growth of about 20% for the 2026 fiscal year.
- Pharma Mar shares rise as much as 10%, extending their winning streak to a sixth session, after the Spanish drugmaker said it filed a European marketing application for a combination of drugs used in treating a form of lung cancer.
- Marks & Spencer shares fall as much as 3.4% after the fallout from a cyberattack overshadowed a robust earnings report.
- Currys shares fall as much as 0.8% following today’s trading update, despite the electronics retailer once again boosting its expectations for full-year pretax profit.
- SoftwareOne shares fall as much as 5.9% after the Swiss IT service provider posted soft revenues and flagged headwinds from Microsoft’s lower incentives will continue for the rest of the year.
- Hornbach Holding shares fall as much as 14%, the most in five months, after the German home improvement firm posted an outlook that analysts at Baader called muted, with adjusted Ebit guidance well below expectations due to salary increases.
- Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 31% to the lowest intraday since Oct. 28 after the oil and gas company said flow testing for its Megrez-1 well in Alaska has completed.
- JD Sports shares slide as much as 13%, the most since January, after the British sports retailer said like-for-like sales fell 2% in its fiscal 1Q, driven by a decline in North America.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained amid continued optimism over the possibility for trade deals between the US and various nations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6% to the highest level since Oct. 7. TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest boosts to the regional benchmark. Key gauges in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan advanced at least 1% each, with equities also trading higher in Hong Kong, Australia and India. The MSCI Asian stock gauge is about 1% away from surpassing its late-September high.
In FX, the Dollar is selling off this morning pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lower 0.5% to the lowest level since May 6, with speculation building of potential currency deals attached to trade negotiations. USDKRW is leading the move lower, falling 130bps as SK Finance Ministry said in response to media reports of US demand for strong Won that their is currently working-level discussions on exchange rates, but details have not been finalized (RTRS). USDCNH is trading a marginal 20bps lower overnight, in part due to a relatively strong (low) CNY fix (7.1937), and Beijing’s unlikliness to engage in similar discussions to SK, as Authorities threaten legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei chips (BBG). Elsewhere, EUR is trading+50bps higher as vols move higher across the curve with 1m trading at 8.7vols, over 0.5vol higher on the day. JPY (+60bps vs USD) is also outperforming despite the move higher in US yields and stabilized JGB back-end. GBP (flat) is undeperforming the broader complex move higher against the USD, given the strong UK inflation data. At face value, our FX Strategists note that today’s report screens as a continuation of a string of more Sterling supportive data, after the firmer growth data in the past two months.
In rates, treasuries bear steepened with 30-year yields up 6bps to 5.02% and 10-year yields up 5bps to 4.53%. Gilts underperformied Treasuries and German peers across the curve, led by the long end of the curve. UK 10-year yields rise ~7 bps to 4.77% after a hotter-than-expected CPI reading in April prompted traders to pare bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England. Regional European bond yields are higher.
In commodities, oil climbed about 0.7% with Brent above $66 a barrel after CNN reported that new US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. It wasn’t clear that Israeli leaders had made a final decision to carry out the strikes, the report added. Gold also gained in haven demand, rising $22 to around $3,312/oz.Bitcoin falls 0.6% toward $106,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, No US economic data are scheduled, while Fed speaker slate includes Barkin and Bowman at 12:15pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.6%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.9%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
- DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.6%
- 10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.54%
- VIX +0.7 points at 18.79
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1220.15
- euro +0.3% at $1.1316
- WTI crude +1.7% at $63.11/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Republicans in the House are increasingly confident they will be able to strike a reconciliation deal and pass it this week before the Memorial Day recess. Politico
- US House Rules panel is “still meeting on the bill after working overnight and no sign of amendment making final changes”: Bloomberg
- Trump’s administration is debating an executive order that could open the nearly $9tn US retirement market to private capital groups focused on corporate takeovers, property, and other high octane deals. FT
- Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has condemned US export controls designed to limit China’s access to AI chips as a “failure” that spurred Chinese rivals to accelerate development of their own products. FT
- White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Vought said the Moody’s downgrade timing was trying to jeopardize the ability to get the budget bill done, although he thinks the budget bill will pass this week and is optimistic.
- Trump said the Golden Dome defence shield will include space-based interceptors and should be operational by the end of his term, while he added that Canada said they want to be part of it and said the total cost is about USD 175bln.
- US-China tech tensions are flaring again, with Beijing threatening legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co.’s chips, casting a shadow over a recent trade truce and efforts to sustain dialogue. BBG
- Temporary trade truce between US/ China has sparked a knee jerk bounce across China’s ports and factory floors. In the week beginning May 12, when the US and China agreed to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, bookings on freighters headed from China to US shores more than doubled from the prior week to about 228,000 TEUs, or twenty-foot equivalent units. BBG
- Japan’s exports to the U.S. fell in April for the first time in four months as the effects of higher tariffs started to kick in. Exports to the U.S. dropped 1.8% in April from a year earlier, reflecting weaker demand for cars and other machinery including chip-making machines. WSJ
- Japan’s lead tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, heads to the US on Friday for a third round of talks with his Trump administration counterparts, with a fourth visit this month being considered. Nikkei
- UK inflation runs hot in Apr, w/the headline CPI coming in at +1.2% (vs. the Street +1%), core CPI +3.8% (vs. the Street +3.6%), and services CPI +5.4% (vs. the Street +4.8%). This print sent the pound to a three-year high against the dollar and short-dated gilts to seven-week lows. Traders now see just one more 25-bp cut from the BOE by year end after CPI surged more than expected to 3.5% in April. WSJ, BBG
- Oil climbed on a CNN report that US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. BBG
- Morgan Stanley mid-year outlook: turns Overweight on US equities and US Treasuries; expects USD to continue to weaken – expects EUR/USD at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by Q2 2026
Trade/Tariffs
- China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China’s advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism, while it added that US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. MOFCOM also stated that the US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violating international law and basic norms. Furthermore, it said China urges the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices and to abide by international economic and trade rules and respect other countries’ rights to scientific and technological development.
- Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday and a fourth visit to the US this month is also a possibility, according to Nikkei.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St but with the gains capped in the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and tier-1 data releases. ASX 200 was led by strength in utilities and the commodity-related stocks with gold miners lifted by recent gains in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 faded its opening gains with headwinds from a firmer currency and after mixed Japanese trade data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the predominantly upbeat mood in the region but with the upside limited in the mainland as frictions lingered after China renewed its criticism against the US for its chip controls and urged the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices.
Top Asian News
- South Korea’s government will prepare support measures for the biopharmaceutical sector and will prepare additional measures for the auto industry if needed.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mostly lower across the board, but sentiment in Europe has picked up a little this morning to display a more mixed picture. European sectors are mostly lower and hold a slight defensive bias. Utilities takes the top spot, benefiting from its defensive status but with sentiment also boosted after post-earning strength in SSE (+1%). Retail is found at the foot of the pile, with JD Sports (-5%) responsible for much of this after the Co. reported a 2% decline in Q1 Sales.
Top European News
- ECB’s de Guindos says equity valuations are high and credit spreads are out of sync with risk. Says the US downgrade was discounted by markets. EZ bond yields have decoupled from US, and spreads are contained. Markets are complacent but that can change.
- ECB FSR: Rapidly shifting geopolitical environment could test euro area financial stability.
- UK Deputy PM Rayner sent a secret memo to UK Chancellor Reeves, pushing for a new tax raid on savers, according to The Telegraph. The memo proposed eight tax increases including reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and changing dividend taxes.
FX
- DXY has extended its losing streak into a third session with incremental macro drivers on the light side as the data calendar remains quiet and Fed speak proves to be non-incremental given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. On the trade front, the deal flow appears to have slowed down and there is unlikely to be much in the way of breakthroughs at the G7 finance ministers meeting this week. Elsewhere, focus is on the fiscal front as Trump attempts to push his “big beautiful bill” through Congress. DXY has slipped onto a 99.0 handle with a session trough at 99.42.
- EUR/USD has extended its rally for the week with a current session peak at 1.1352 vs. an opening price on Monday at 1.1172. This week has been a quiet one in terms of Eurozone newsflow with ECB speak not shifting the dial on market pricing with a June cut near-enough fully priced. For now though, EUR remains underpinned by its appeal of being a liquid alternative to the USD, currently holding around 1.1325.
- JPY is capitalising on the broadly softer USD with USD/JPY slipping as low as 143.57 overnight before returning to a 144 handle. Focus surrounding Japan remains on the trade front with reporting in the Nikkei noting that Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday.
- GBP is steady vs. the USD following a choppy reaction to UK CPI metrics. The series saw an across-the-board hotter-than-expected outturn with Y/Y CPI rising to 3.5% from 2.6% (exp. 3.3%) and the all-important services component rose to 5.4% from 4.7% (exp. 4.8%). This elicited a surge in Cable to a multi-year high at 1.3468. However, the move ran out of steam given the negative connotations of a stagflationary outlook in the UK.
- Mildly diverging fortunes for the antipodeans with AUD firmer vs. the USD and NZD steady. Fresh macro drivers are lacking for both with the payback in AUD likely a by-product of Tuesday’s RBA-induced losses.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1937 vs exp. 7.2133 (Prev. 7.1931).
Fixed Income
- USTs started the day on the backfoot, down to a 109-25 base and a few ticks beneath the 109-28+ low from Tuesday. If the move continues, then the 109-20 WTD base is next. The bearish bias has been moderate so far, ahead of an expected floor reading of the US tax/spending bill on Thursday, a 20yr auction this evening in addition to Fed’s Barkin & Bowman.
- Bunds are lower marginally underperforming USTs at this moment in time though not to quite the same degree as Gilts, see below. Updates thus far include the ECB FSR, which highlighted that a shifting geopolitical environment could test EZ financial stability. ECB’s de Guindos also provided some remarks, but little of note. Into the German 2035 Bund auction the downside has increased taking Bunds to a fresh trough at 129.60 – a decent outing, but had little impact on German paper.
- Gilts are the underperformer this morning with downside in excess of 60 ticks at worst. Driven lower by the above, the morning’s hot inflation series and possibly some concession into supply factoring. To recap the data, Services came in at 5.4% Y/Y, eclipsing the BoE’s 5.0% view, and the headline at 3.5% Y/Y, surpassing the BoE’s average forecast for Q2 of 3.4%. In reaction to this, Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks at the open and have since slipped another 26 to a 90.46 trough, notching a fresh WTD low in the process and lifting the 10yr yield to 4.77%, its highest since early April when 4.79% printed.
- Germany sells EUR 3.052bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2035 Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.66% (prev. 2.47%) & retention 23.7% (prev. 23.80%)
- UK’s DMO says due to ongoing issues with the Bloomberg terminal, the bidding window for today’s 2031 auction has been extended; expects closing time of the auction to be 11:30BST.
Commodities
- Crude futures are overall boosted following a CNN report that new intelligence suggested Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, although it added that it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Oil prices waned off their best levels during APAC trade amid the cautious risk tone across markets. Aside from that, complex-specific newsflow has been light, WTI resides in a USD 62.20-64.19/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.96-66.63/bbl range.
- Spot gold is kept afloat by dollar weakness and amid the ongoing backdrop of trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,285.34-3,320.84/oz range at the time of writing after topping yesterday’s USD 3,295.79/oz high and now eyeing the 12th May peak at USD 3,325.39/oz.
- Base metals overall trade mixed whilst copper futures extends on the prior day’s intraday rebound after gaining on a softer dollar and as Asian bourses mostly shrugged off the weak handover from US peers. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 9,528.70-9,599.00/t range at the time of writing.
- Iraq’s Oil Minister says lower oil prices are on the back of rising crude stocks; hopes oil prices will improve in H2’25.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillates -1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -0.4mln.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- New intelligence suggested that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to US officials cited by CNN although the report added it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.
- Iranian Foreign Minister says “We are considering whether or not to participate in the next round of negotiations with US. We are still examining whether productive talks can take place on that date”, via Iran Nuances.
- UK is reportedly considering sanctions against Israeli far-right ministers, via FT citing sources; discussions are over an asset ban and travel freeze on Finance Minister Smotrich and Security Minister Ben-Gvir.
Geopolitics: India-Pakistan
- Pakistani army says “Indian terror proxies” used by India to attack a school bus in southwest Pakistan.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Ukraine’s Finance Minister Marchenko said G7 ministers will discuss all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine’s reconstruction, while he will reiterate the need for stronger sanctions on Russia.
- US President Trump said he is not worried about reports of a Russian military buildup along Finland.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: May 16 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.1%, prior 1.1%
Central Banks Speakers
- 12:15 pm: Fed’s Barkin, Bowman Participate in Fed Listens
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
US fiscal matters have dominated again over the last 24 hours, as investors continue to grapple with what the long-term unsustainable nature of US debt means in the near term. After a complete round trip back to pre-downgrade levels on Monday, yesterday saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+6.7bps) moving up to 4.97%, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.39%) ended a run of 6 consecutive gains. And notably, those moves weren’t just confined to the US, with Japan’s long-end yields surging after weak demand at an auction, pushing their 30yr yield (+12.1bps) up to 3.082% – a near 25-year high. They are another +8.9bps higher this morning.
Interestingly, in the flash poll I asked yesterday on how the US deficit issue would ultimately resolve itself, a majority (54%) reckoned that politicians would be forced to rein it in over the next decade due to some sort of crisis or economic event. Another 26% expected some sort of monetisation via fresh QE, whilst 15% felt the market would continue to take large deficits in its stride. 5% of you were even more optimistic, thinking that strong economic growth in the year ahead will prevent deficits hitting those levels that have been widely forecast.
When it comes to the near term, all eyes are now on the tax bill that the Trump administration are seeking to pass through Congress, as the final agreement will go a long way to determining how big the US deficit becomes in the years ahead. There wasn’t a huge amount of newsflow on that yesterday, but President Trump did go to Capitol Hill as he sought to persuade Republicans to pass the bill. Currently, one of the issues is that Republicans from higher-tax states want a boost in the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, and several have threatened to vote against a bill that doesn’t have a big enough increase in the SALT cap. For instance, Mike Lawler of New York said that “As it stands right now, I do not support the bill”. Another concern is about the debt impact, such as from Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Trump reiterated that he was opposed to deeper cuts to Medicaid that have been advocated by some of the fiscal hawkish Republicans. The overarching issue is that Republicans have an incredibly narrow majority in the House of Representatives. The chamber is currently split 220-213 to the Republicans, meaning it would only take four votes against (along with the Democrats) to sink any bill.
In terms of the market reaction, it was a more difficult day for US assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.39%) finally losing ground after 6 consecutive gains. Once again, it was tech stocks that lagged, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.62%) underperforming the S&P for a 4th consecutive session. Tesla (+0.51%) was the only of the Mag-7 to advance as Musk said he is committed to leading the company for the next five years. The equity decline was also pretty broad with two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents lower on the day, though there were gains from the more defensive sectors, including utilities (+0.29%) and consumer staples (+0.27%).
Meanwhile for Treasuries, longer-dated maturities struggled amidst the fiscal situation, with the 10yr yield (+3.9bps) up to 4.49%, whilst the 30yr yield (+6.7bps) rose to 4.97% as discussed at the top. But there was a stronger performance at the front-end, where the 2yr Treasury yield (-0.5bps) posted a modest decline to 3.97%. At the same time, near-term Fed rate cut expectations continued to dwindle, with pricing of a rate cut by July falling to only 30%, the lowest this has been since the last cut in December. St Louis Fed President Musalem said that “tariffs are likely to dampen economic activity and lead to some further softening of the labor market” but also noted the potential risk posed by elevated inflation expectations. This morning in Asia, 10 and 30yr USTs are another couple of basis points higher with the 30yr hovering just below 5%.
Away from the US debt concerns, European markets saw a clear risk-on move yesterday, with equities posting fresh gains across the continent. In particular, the DAX (+0.42%) hit a fresh all-time high, taking its YTD gains up to +20.73%. Meanwhile, the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) closed in on its own record from early March, ending the day just -1.62% beneath its peak. Elsewhere, that risk-on tone was also evident in sovereign bond markets, where spreads continued to tighten. For instance, the Italian 10yr spread over bunds closed beneath 100bps for the first time since September 2021, at just 99.6bps. And the French spread over bunds also tightened to 65.7bps, the tightest since July, shortly after the legislative election. In absolute terms, that came as yields on 10yr bunds were up +1.8bps, whereas those on OATs (+0.3bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) saw a smaller increase.
Here in the UK, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, with 10yr yields up +3.9bps on the day. That followed comments from BoE chief economist Pill, who said that he saw the recent pace of BoE rate cuts as “too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability we face.” This came as Pill explained his dissenting vote at the latest meeting earlier this month, where he had been one of two MPC members to vote to keep Bank Rate unchanged, while the majority favoured a 25bp cut.
Separately in Canada, their 10yr yields surged by +12.6bps on the day, which came after their latest CPI print was stronger than expected. Although headline inflation eased to +1.7% in April (vs. +1.6% expected), both of the core inflation measures unexpectedly rose, with CPI-median at +3.2% (vs. +2.9% expected), and CPI-trim at +3.1% (vs. +2.8% expected). In turn, that led investors to dial back expectations for a rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting, which is now only seen as a 28% probability, down from 68% previously.
Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning but oil prices have surged by around +1.9% (+3.5% earlier in the session), driven by reports from CNN that US intelligence believe that Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The report suggests no final decision has been made. Equities are mostly shrugging this off with the KOSPI (+0.96%) leading the way followed by the CSI (+0.68%), the Hang Seng (+0.54%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%). Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.56%) is continuing its upward trend, approaching a three-month high after the dovish stance taken by the RBA in yesterday’s meeting. Conversely, the Nikkei (-0.24%) is slightly lower after the yield rises and data that showed an unexpected trade deficit in April (more below). S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) futures are edging lower.
Turning back to Japan, export growth (+2.0% y/y) continued to decelerate for the second consecutive month in April as the country grappled with the fallout from tariffs imposed by the US. Imports shrank -2.2% from a year ago, less than the Bloomberg estimates of a -4.2% decline and compared to a downwardly revised increase of +1.8% the previous month. As a result, Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly swung into a deficit of -¥115.8 billion (v/s +¥215.3 billion expected) after two months in the black.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK CPI release for April. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Lane and Escriva, and the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman. Finally, earnings releases include TJX and Target
2b European Opening report
DXY lower and oil prices boosted on reports that Israel is looking to attack Iranian nuclear facilities – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 06:19 AM
- US House Speaker Johnson said a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic.
- China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China’s advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.
- Europe opened mostly lower but now trade mixed, US equity futures are in the red.
- USD remains out of love, GBP digests hot CPI data, EUR/USD back above 1.13.
- Bearish bias in play, Gilts lag after hot CPI, USTs await fiscal updates.
- Energy and gold boosted by reports Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Looking ahead, G7 Central Bank and Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Nagel & Cipollone, Fed’s Barkin & Bowman, Supply from the US, Earnings from Snowflake, Zoom, Target, TJX, VF Corp & Medtronic.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China’s advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism, while it added that US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. MOFCOM also stated that the US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violating international law and basic norms. Furthermore, it said China urges the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices and to abide by international economic and trade rules and respect other countries’ rights to scientific and technological development.
- Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday and a fourth visit to the US this month is also a possibility, according to Nikkei.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mostly lower across the board, but sentiment in Europe has picked up a little this morning to display a more mixed picture.
- European sectors are mostly lower and hold a slight defensive bias. Utilities takes the top spot, benefiting from its defensive status but with sentiment also boosted after post-earning strength in SSE (+1%). Retail is found at the foot of the pile, with JD Sports (-5%) responsible for much of this after the Co. reported a 2% decline in Q1 Sales.
- US equity futures are modestly lower, continuing the similar price action seen in the prior session. US data docket is very light; Fed’s Barkin and Bowman are both due to speak.
- Baidu (9888 HK/ BIDU) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS 2.55 (exp. 1.96), Revenue 4.47bln (exp. 4.30bln), FCF -476mln (prev. +6.34bln Y/Y)
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY has extended its losing streak into a third session with incremental macro drivers on the light side as the data calendar remains quiet and Fed speak proves to be non-incremental given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. On the trade front, the deal flow appears to have slowed down and there is unlikely to be much in the way of breakthroughs at the G7 finance ministers meeting this week. Elsewhere, focus is on the fiscal front as Trump attempts to push his “big beautiful bill” through Congress. DXY has slipped onto a 99.0 handle with a session trough at 99.42.
- EUR/USD has extended its rally for the week with a current session peak at 1.1352 vs. an opening price on Monday at 1.1172. This week has been a quiet one in terms of Eurozone newsflow with ECB speak not shifting the dial on market pricing with a June cut near-enough fully priced. For now though, EUR remains underpinned by its appeal of being a liquid alternative to the USD, currently holding around 1.1325.
- JPY is capitalising on the broadly softer USD with USD/JPY slipping as low as 143.57 overnight before returning to a 144 handle. Focus surrounding Japan remains on the trade front with reporting in the Nikkei noting that Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday.
- GBP is steady vs. the USD following a choppy reaction to UK CPI metrics. The series saw an across-the-board hotter-than-expected outturn with Y/Y CPI rising to 3.5% from 2.6% (exp. 3.3%) and the all-important services component rose to 5.4% from 4.7% (exp. 4.8%). This elicited a surge in Cable to a multi-year high at 1.3468. However, the move ran out of steam given the negative connotations of a stagflationary outlook in the UK.
- Mildly diverging fortunes for the antipodeans with AUD firmer vs. the USD and NZD steady. Fresh macro drivers are lacking for both with the payback in AUD likely a by-product of Tuesday’s RBA-induced losses.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1937 vs exp. 7.2133 (Prev. 7.1931).
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FIXED INCOME
- USTs started the day on the backfoot, down to a 109-25 base and a few ticks beneath the 109-28+ low from Tuesday. If the move continues, then the 109-20 WTD base is next. The bearish bias has been moderate so far, ahead of an expected floor reading of the US tax/spending bill on Thursday, a 20yr auction this evening in addition to Fed’s Barkin & Bowman.
- Bunds are lower marginally underperforming USTs at this moment in time though not to quite the same degree as Gilts, see below. Updates thus far include the ECB FSR, which highlighted that a shifting geopolitical environment could test EZ financial stability. ECB’s de Guindos also provided some remarks, but little of note. Into the German 2035 Bund auction the downside has increased taking Bunds to a fresh trough at 129.60 – a decent outing, but had little impact on German paper.
- Gilts are the underperformer this morning with downside in excess of 60 ticks at worst. Driven lower by the above, the morning’s hot inflation series and possibly some concession into supply factoring. To recap the data, Services came in at 5.4% Y/Y, eclipsing the BoE’s 5.0% view, and the headline at 3.5% Y/Y, surpassing the BoE’s average forecast for Q2 of 3.4%. In reaction to this, Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks at the open and have since slipped another 26 to a 90.46 trough, notching a fresh WTD low in the process and lifting the 10yr yield to 4.77%, its highest since early April when 4.79% printed.
- Germany sells EUR 3.052bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2035 Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.66% (prev. 2.47%) & retention 23.7% (prev. 23.80%)
- UK’s DMO says due to ongoing issues with the Bloomberg terminal, the bidding window for today’s 2031 auction has been extended; expects closing time of the auction to be 11:30BST.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures are overall boosted following a CNN report that new intelligence suggested Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, although it added that it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Oil prices waned off their best levels during APAC trade amid the cautious risk tone across markets. Aside from that, complex-specific newsflow has been light, WTI resides in a USD 62.20-64.19/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.96-66.63/bbl range.
- Spot gold is kept afloat by dollar weakness and amid the ongoing backdrop of trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,285.34-3,320.84/oz range at the time of writing after topping yesterday’s USD 3,295.79/oz high and now eyeing the 12th May peak at USD 3,325.39/oz.
- Base metals overall trade mixed whilst copper futures extends on the prior day’s intraday rebound after gaining on a softer dollar and as Asian bourses mostly shrugged off the weak handover from US peers. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 9,528.70-9,599.00/t range at the time of writing.
- Iraq’s Oil Minister says lower oil prices are on the back of rising crude stocks; hopes oil prices will improve in H2’25.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillates -1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -0.4mln.
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NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK CPI YY (Apr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.6%); M/M 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.3%)
- UK Core CPI YY (Apr) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.4%); MM 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.5%)
- UK CPI Services YY (Apr) 5.4% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.7%); MM 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 0.4%)
- UK ONS House Price Index (Mar): 6.4% Y/Y (prev. 5.4%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s de Guindos says equity valuations are high and credit spreads are out of sync with risk. Says the US downgrade was discounted by markets. EZ bond yields have decoupled from US, and spreads are contained. Markets are complacent but that can change.
- ECB FSR: Rapidly shifting geopolitical environment could test euro area financial stability.
- UK Deputy PM Rayner sent a secret memo to UK Chancellor Reeves, pushing for a new tax raid on savers, according to The Telegraph. The memo proposed eight tax increases including reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and changing dividend taxes.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter) said further instability in the Treasury market would add to uncertainty and noted the current US tariff level is better than it was as initially proposed, but still high enough that it is difficult to assess what will happen. Bostic added the Fed needs to be more certain about the outlook to be comfortable about how monetary policy should shift.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said the net effect of Trump administration trade, immigration and other policies remains unknown.
- US President Trump said the Golden Dome defence shield will include space-based interceptors and should be operational by the end of his term, while he added that Canada said they want to be part of it and said the total cost is about USD 175bln.
- US House Speaker Johnson said they will complete SALT discussions on Tuesday night and are very near a final agreement on IRA energy credits, while he added that a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic. It was later reported that a group of blue-state Republicans and GOP leaders reached a tentative deal for a USD 40,000 SALT deduction, according to POLITICO.
- White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Vought said the Moody’s downgrade timing was trying to jeopardise the ability to get the budget bill done, although he thinks the budget bill will pass this week and is optimistic.
- US House Rules panel is “still meeting on the bill after working overnight and no sign of amendment making final changes”, via Bloomberg’s Wasson.
- Morgan Stanley mid-year outlook: turns Overweight on US equities and US Treasuries; expects USD to continue to weaken – expects EUR/USD at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by Q2 2026
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- New intelligence suggested that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to US officials cited by CNN although the report added it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.
- Iranian Foreign Minister says “We are considering whether or not to participate in the next round of negotiations with US. We are still examining whether productive talks can take place on that date”, via Iran Nuances.
- UK is reportedly considering sanctions against Israeli far-right ministers, via FT citing sources; discussions are over an asset ban and travel freeze on Finance Minister Smotrich and Security Minister Ben-Gvir.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
- Pakistani army says “Indian terror proxies” used by India to attack a school bus in southwest Pakistan.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s Finance Minister Marchenko said G7 ministers will discuss all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine’s reconstruction, while he will reiterate the need for stronger sanctions on Russia.
- US President Trump said he is not worried about reports of a Russian military buildup along Finland.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades around USD 106k whilst Ethereum meanders around USD 2.5k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St but with the gains capped in the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and tier-1 data releases.
- ASX 200 was led by strength in utilities and the commodity-related stocks with gold miners lifted by recent gains in the precious metal.
- Nikkei 225 faded its opening gains with headwinds from a firmer currency and after mixed Japanese trade data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the predominantly upbeat mood in the region but with the upside limited in the mainland as frictions lingered after China renewed its criticism against the US for its chip controls and urged the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- South Korea’s government will prepare support measures for the biopharmaceutical sector and will prepare additional measures for the auto industry if needed.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Apr) -115.8B vs. Exp. 227.1B (Prev. 559.4B)
2c Asian opening report
Geopols & US fiscal updates in focus, DXY continues to falter – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 01:28 AM
- APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St.
- US House Speaker Johnson said a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic.
- European equity futures indicate a quiet cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
- DXY is extending its losing streak for a third session, EUR/USD is back above 1.13, Cable sits above 1.34 ahead of UK CPI.
- Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to CNN; not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, G7 Central Bank and Finance Ministers Meeting, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Nagel & Cipollone, Fed’s Barkin & Bowman, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were choppy and ultimately closed mostly lower to snap a six-day win streak on Wall St, with the majority of sectors in the red while defensives outperformed. As there was a lack of US data, the focus was on US President Trump’s tax bill talks in which he attempted to get Republicans on board with his tax bill, but it appears there is more work to do and House Freedom Caucus Chair suggested they would eventually get there albeit with uncertainty regarding the timing. Furthermore, there weren’t any major trade-related developments, although reports noted that Japan is mulling accepting a US tariff reduction instead of an exemption and that its top negotiator will visit the US for a third round of discussions this Friday.
- SPX -0.39% at 5,940, NDX -0.37% at 21,367, DJI -0.27% at 42,677, RUT +0.05% at 2,106.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China’s advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism, while it added that US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. MOFCOM also stated that the US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violating international law and basic norms. Furthermore, it said China urges the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices and to abide by international economic and trade rules and respect other countries’ rights to scientific and technological development.
- Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday and a fourth visit to the US this month is also a possibility, according to Nikkei.
- FBN’s Gasparino posted that the state of the tariff talks between the US and Japan provides a window into just how difficult constructing even trade frameworks has become with Japan now posturing by demanding US concessions as talks are set to begin, while both sides still need to position on specific issues, according to sources. Furthermore, the US is also demanding more so-called burden sharing from Japan on paying for the US military in the country and region.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Musalem (2025 Voter) said monetary policy is currently well-positioned, while a balanced response to higher inflation and unemployment is feasible if inflation expectations stay anchored. Musalem stated that if inflation expectations become de-anchored, the Fed policy should prioritise price stability and noted that the US economy has underlying strength, the labour market is stable and inflation has eased but is above the 2% goal.
- Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) gave three scenarios on tariffs, as the traditional approach to projecting the economy with a baseline scenario may not be the best way to think of the outlook right now. Hammack said the first scenario is that tariffs have a one-off price effect, but economic growth takes a hit from policy uncertainty, while the second scenario is that the labor market holds up, but tariffs are inflationary, and the third is a stagflationary outcome where the economy slows alongside higher inflation which she sees as most likely. Fed’s Hammack separately commented that sentiment data about the economy has been concerning and if the Fed is challenged on inflation and unemployment, it would be a difficult choice. Furthermore, she said it will take more time to see how business decisions are influenced by trade policy and the current best action for the Fed is to sit on its hands.
- Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter) said further instability in the Treasury market would add to uncertainty and noted the current US tariff level is better than it was as initially proposed, but still high enough that it is difficult to assess what will happen. Bostic added the Fed needs to be more certain about the outlook to be comfortable about how monetary policy should shift.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said the net effect of Trump administration trade, immigration and other policies remains unknown.
- US President Trump said the Golden Dome defence shield will include space-based interceptors and should be operational by the end of his term, while he added that Canada said they want to be part of it and said the total cost is about USD 175bln.
- US President Trump posted on Truth the US must maintain their worldwide leader status in WiFi, 5G and 6G and he is going to free up plenty of spectrum for auction, while he added “Congress must put 600 MHz in “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”.
- US House Speaker Johnson said they will complete SALT discussions on Tuesday night and are very near a final agreement on IRA energy credits, while he added that a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic. It was later reported that a group of blue-state Republicans and GOP leaders reached a tentative deal for a USD 40,000 SALT deduction, according to POLITICO.
- White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Vought said the Moody’s downgrade timing was trying to jeopardise the ability to get the budget bill done, although he thinks the budget bill will pass this week and is optimistic.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St but with the gains capped in the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and tier-1 data releases.
- ASX 200 was led by strength in utilities and the commodity-related stocks with gold miners lifted by recent gains in the precious metal.
- Nikkei 225 faded its opening gains with headwinds from a firmer currency and after mixed Japanese trade data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the predominantly upbeat mood in the region but with the upside limited in the mainland as frictions lingered after China renewed its criticism against the US for its chip controls and urged the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices.
- US equity futures (ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%) remained subdued following the uninspired performance on Wall St, where the S&P 500 and Dow snapped their six-day win streaks.
- European equity futures indicate a quiet cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY resumed its recent weakening trend and retreated further beneath the 100.00 level amid very few fresh catalysts and a quiet US data calendar, while a recent slew of Fed rhetoric provided very little incrementally and there was also renewed criticism from China’s MOFCOM on the US regarding chip controls.
- EUR/USD benefited from the pressure in the dollar and reclaimed the 1.1300 handle, while there is another bout of ECB comments later including from Lagarde after the prior day’s slew of rhetoric from the central bank’s officials.
- GBP/USD added to its recent spoils after breaching through resistance at 1.3400 and with UK CPI data expected to accelerate.
- USD/JPY retreated beneath the 144.00 level with the pair dragged lower amid the dollar selling and risk aversion in Tokyo.
- Antipodeans mildly edged higher in quiet trade amid the mostly positive risk and recent upside in commodities.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1937 vs exp. 7.2133 (Prev. 7.1931).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre after yesterday’s choppy performance and mild curve steepening amid the Trump tax bill updates, with demand also constrained overnight ahead of supply.
- Bund futures traded subdued and reapproached the 130.00 level as today’s auction for EUR 4bln of Bunds looms.
- 10yr JGB futures quietened down from yesterday’s post-auction volatility with little fresh catalysts and after mixed trade data.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were underpinned following a CNN report that new intelligence suggested Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, although it added that it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillates -1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -0.4mln.
- EU is likely to propose a quota as the mechanism to enforce a bloc-wide import ban on Russian gas by the end of 2027, which officials say should provide companies with a legal basis to terminate long-term purchase contracts, according to Bloomberg.
- Spot gold was kept afloat by dollar weakness and amid the ongoing backdrop of trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Copper futures extended on the prior day’s intraday rebound after gaining on a softer dollar and as Asian bourses mostly shrugged off the weak handover from US peers.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy and briefly tested the USD 107,000 level to the upside before returning to flat territory.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- South Korea’s government will prepare support measures for the biopharmaceutical sector and will prepare additional measures for the auto industry if needed.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Apr) -115.8B vs. Exp. 227.1B (Prev. 559.4B)
- Japanese Exports YY (Apr) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
- Japanese Imports YY (Apr) -2.2% vs. Exp. -4.5% (Prev. 1.8%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- New intelligence suggested that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to US officials cited by CNN although the report added it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu ordered the return of the delegation from Qatar, but a small team to remain to continue talks.
- Israeli military head said Israel will expand manoeuvres in Gaza and capture additional territory, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he welcomed new British and EU sanctions on Russia and said it ‘would be good if the US also helped’.
- Ukraine’s Finance Minister Marchenko said G7 ministers will discuss all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine’s reconstruction, while he will reiterate the need for stronger sanctions on Russia.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the US will impose new sanctions on Russia if there is no progress on a peace deal.
- US President Trump said he is not worried about reports of a Russian military buildup along Finland.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Deputy PM Rayner sent a secret memo to UK Chancellor Reeves, pushing for a new tax raid on savers, according to The Telegraph. The memo proposed eight tax increases including reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and changing dividend taxes.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
State of affairs inside Germany:
“We Have Imported Knife Violence” – Wave Of Attacks Shakes Germany Once Again
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Another wave of knife attacks has hit Germany, showing that not much has changed despite the many lost lives and Germans maimed in knife attacks.
In fact, the statistics show that these crimes are even getting worse, with 79 knife attacks per day now recorded. A German criminal lawyer warns that Germany has “imported knife violence,” in response to growing blade crimes.
In the last few days, headlines include Kosovar man arrested after knife attack in Germany injures three, including 12-year-old girl” “Man stabbed half to death on basketball court,” “Manhunt continues after Syrian asylum seeker stabs 5 outside student bar in Bielefeld,” and “Rioter injures police officer with knife.”
However, thousands of such headlines have run in the German press in recent years, with Remix News reporting on many of them. The overwhelming number of perpetrators are foreigners or those with a foreign background, yet despite promises to crack down and enact deportations of migrant criminals, the bloodshed not only continues but appears to be getting worse.
“We have imported knife violence. In other cultures, the knife is a kind of status symbol. This is changing the social climate here in the country,” stated criminal attorney Udo Vetter. He further notes that “knives have become an everyday companion for many people. And the barrier to using them is low.”
Notably, he warns that due to the rise of knives and knife crimes, it is creating a problem that is expected to only grow exponentially, with more and more people arming themselves with knives out of fear.
“Because if some people deliberately pack a knife as a murder weapon, more and more people will also resort to knives, supposedly to defend themselves,” stated Vetter. “Young people in particular have knives in their pockets just like their cell phones.”
However, this problem has been warned about nearly every week, including from the German police themselves.
Manuel Ostermann, deputy head of the Federal Police Union, stated that “the knife as a means of committing a crime always immediately poses a concrete threat to life and limb. Politicians must now take all possible measures to curb this phenomenon.” Ostermann is the same police union head who said that Germany’s crime problem is actually an immigration problem during a viral speech last year.
The head of the German Police Union, Rainer Wendt, also spoke out about the knife crime problem, saying: “The threshold for violence is getting lower and lower. And the fuse is getting shorter. Knives are being drawn even for trivial reasons and seemingly harmless disputes.”
As Remix News previously reported, violent crime reached a record high in Germany last year, with foreigners responsible for nearly half of crimes.
There were 29,014 cases in total involving a crime where a knife was used, of which, 15,741 were knife attacks. Serious and dangerous bodily harm with a knife increased by 10.8 percent in 2024 compared to 2023.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is going on the offensive under the new Christian Democrat-led government, with security and immigration still top concerns. Alice Weidel, AfD party co-leader, mocked the new government’s “five-point plan” to fix the immigration crisis, saying that the border is not secured despite promises.
“Failed border controls and broken promises are what remains of the ‘5-Point Plan.’ This is demonstrated not least by the violent incidents in Bielefeld and Halle. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU state governments show no willingness to initiate a migration turnaround,” wrote Weidel on X.
The leader of the AfD parliamentary group in the Baden-Württemberg state parliament, Anton Baron MdL, has accused Christian Socialist Union (CDU) parliamentary group leader Manuel Hagel of hypocrisy regarding knife crimes in Germany.
“Although the proportion of people without German passports is significantly lower in the population, there is a significantly higher crime rate here,” he told SWR. He said he considered the increased number of knife attacks by foreigners “alarming.”
“Such ‘unpleasant truths’ must be spoken. It couldn’t be more hypocritical: The CDU, above all, has caused this situation since 2015. Has the party distanced himself from it to this day? On the contrary: Hegel has rejected all our draft laws and motions to limit migration and defamed us as more right-wing than right-wing. Hagel can point his bigoted finger at others as much as he wants: his party, under Interior Minister Strobl, believes it can tackle the rampant problem of migrant knife-wielding men with pseudo-solutions like gun-free zones. But this problem no longer needs to be ‘debated in our country’ – it must finally be solved. But apart from the AfD, no one wants or can do that.”
end
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/
Houthis Add Key Northern Israeli Port To Target List For Ballistic Missiles
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 05:00 AM
The Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF.. Ansarallah/Houthis) announced that its leadership has decided to impose a blockade on the northern Israeli port of Haifa, in response to Tel Aviv’s violent escalation in the Gaza Strip.
“In response to the Israeli enemy’s escalation of its brutal aggression against our brothers and people in Gaza … The Yemeni Armed Forces … has decided, with God’s help, to implement the leadership’s directives to begin work on imposing a naval blockade on the port of Haifa,” it said in a statement released on its media page early Tuesday.
“Accordingly, all companies with ships present in this port or heading to it are hereby notified that the aforementioned port has been included in the target bank since the time of announcing this statement, and they must take into consideration what is said in this statement and what will be stated later,” it added.
Since the Omani-mediated ceasefire agreement earlier this month – which saw Washington end its indiscriminate campaign against Yemen and Sanaa stop its operations targeting US ships – the YAF has targeted Israel several times.
A May 12 report by the New York Times (NYT) revealed that US President Donald Trump was forced to agree to a deal that did not include Yemen halting attacks against Israel, given that the first weeks of the US campaign burned through $1 billion in munitions and “had not even established air superiority” over the YAF and the Ansarallah movement.
In addition to the naval ban on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, Sanaa has also maintained a blockade on Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, which was directly struck by a Yemeni ballistic missile in early May.
As a result, several international airliners have suspended flights to Israel. Tel Aviv has recently launched massive attacks on Yemen and has threatened to assassinate Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Ansarallah – which is merged with the YAF. The YAF carried out its first hypersonic ballistic missile attack targeting the city of Haifa on 23 April.
The Houthi decision to add Haifa port to its target list comes after Israel reportedly killed over 500 Palestinians in Gaza in just a few days.
On May 17, Israel announced the start of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which aims to bring the entirety of Gaza under Israeli control and will see the army displace the whole population and confine it to a small area in the southern region of the strip.
After three months of a total blockade that compounded a severe humanitarian crisis in the strip, Israel allowed only five aid trucks into Gaza on Tuesday. Tel Aviv said it would only allow a “basic quantity” of food to enter Gaza.
ISRAEL/HAMAS
ISRAEL HAMAS
US intel suggests Israel preparing strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities – CNN
“Whether and how Israel strikes will likely depend” on Jerusalem’s views of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, CNN added.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 21, 2025 01:18Updated: MAY 21, 2025 02:25
New intelligence obtained by the United States suggests that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing multiple US officials familiar with the matter.
It was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision, CNN added, citing the officials, adding that there is “deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act.”
Any Israeli strike on Iran would be “a brazen break with President Donald Trump,” the officials told CNN. They added that it could also risk triggering a broader regional war.
“Whether and how Israel strikes will likely depend” on Jerusalem’s views of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, CNN added.
However, another source told CNN that “the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months, and the prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”
The concerns of an Israeli strike are based on public and private messaging from senior Israeli officials that they are considering a move, and from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements, multiple sources told CNN.
These military movements included moving air munitions and completing an air exercise, two sources added.
These could also, however, be Israel simply “trying to pressure Iran to abandon key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling the consequences if it doesn’t — underscoring the ever-shifting complexities the White House is navigating,” CNN added.
Israel ‘between a rock and a hard place’
Trump’s desire to pursue diplomacy over striking Iran has put Israel “between a rock and a hard place,” according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region, cited by CNN.
This has led Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to face pressure both to avoid a US-Iran deal that Israel “doesn’t view as satisfactory, while also not alienating Trump, CNN added.
“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” Panikoff said, adding that he did not believe Netanyahu would be willing to risk fracturing Israel’s US relationship by launching a strike without at least tacit US approval.
Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program without US support, including midair refueling and bombs to penetrate facilities deep underground, according to a source familiar with the matter, cited by CNN.
However, Israel would be prepared to carry out military action on its own if the US were to negotiate a deal with Iran that Israel cannot accept, an Israeli source told CNN.
“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal,’” said the other person familiar with US intelligence cited by CNN. “The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us … both publicly and privately.”
Israel’s National Security Council, Prime Minister’s Office, and the Embassy in Washington did not reply to CNN’s request for a comment.
With Israel concerned that the Trump administration may cut a weak new nuclear deal with Iran, one way out of such a scenario could be a theoretical Mossad operation that kills the key Iranian official who ordered 400 ballistic missiles fired on Israel in 2024, think-tank sources conjectured to The Jerusalem Post in April.
There is a real danger that Trump could agree to a mediocre nuclear deal with Iran, multiple top Israeli sources have told the Post in April. If Trump does agree to such a deal, some of the sources are deeply concerned that the president may circumscribe the IDF’s current unique opportunity to strike the Islamic Republic.
Yonah Jeremy Bob and Reuters contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
When Hamas applauds you, it’s time to rethink your stance – editorial
The UK, Canada, and France do not see the cause-and-effect of Hamas’s use of the Gazan population to achieve its attempted goal of demonizing Israel.
By JPOST EDITORIALMAY 2
France, Great Britain, and Canada made damning statements on Tuesday that threaten sanctions against Israel if it does not halt its military operations in Gaza and lift aid restrictions. Although they may seem justified in the narrow context of the horrors experienced by the Palestinians in the embattled enclave, they completely ignore the larger context of the reason and push behind Israel being there in the first place: Hamas and Iran.
In a joint statement, the governments said, “The Israeli government’s denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population is unacceptable and risks breaching international humanitarian law.
“We oppose any attempt to expand settlements in the West Bank… We will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions,” they said.
JPost Videos
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded: “The leaders in London, Ottawa, and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities.” He added that Israel will defend itself by just means until “total victory is achieved,” reiterating Jerusalem’s conditions to end the war and achieving its two war goals: The release of the remaining hostages and the demilitarization of the Strip.
The three Western nations also said, “We have always supported Israel’s right to defend Israelis against terrorism. But this escalation is wholly disproportionate.” They added that they would not stand by while Netanyahu’s government pursued “these egregious actions.”
Nowhere, however, did they mention the “egregious actions” of Hamas in holding and torturing hostages in unspeakable conditions, nor did they mention that all of the suffering in Gaza could end tomorrow if Hamas released the hostages and laid down their arms.
They further stated their support for efforts led by the US, Qatar, and Egypt for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and said they were committed to the tired, outdated mantra of recognizing a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to the conflict.
The talks in Doha do not appear to be producing results, according to reports on Tuesday. And the ones suffering as a result are the hostages and the people of Gaza. But our friends in the UK, Canada, and France do not see the cause-and-effect of Hamas’s cynical use of Gaza’s population to achieve its attempted goal of demonizing Israel.
As Netanyahu said, Israel has a right to fight and disarm an enemy that infiltrated its borders, kidnapped and killed its people, and continues to hold them hostage as a strategic playing card, when it could simply release them, and vows to destroy Israel in its stated mission.
Yes, some things cannot be fought: Hamas as a concept, and the time that is running out for the hostages. Creativity is required at this time to reach a deal.
Where is global pressure on Hamas?
However, from Israel’s allies, there is no creativity, and no pressure on the real culprit: Hamas. Instead, they threaten sanctions on the country trying to get back its citizens.
Is this truly the smartest way to act towards an ally that has promoted and fought for Western values? Where, in that joint statement, was the equally weighted warning to the terrorist groups that birthed this entire operation: Hamas, its allies, and its parent backer, Iran?
As the Trump administration says it is closing in on a nuclear deal with the Iranian regime, where is the weight levied against Tehran to pressure Hamas? Why is Israel being singled out here?
An appeal to help Gazans, who are indeed suffering, is warranted. But by ignoring the larger context and who is to blame for the carnage in Gaza, the UK, Canada, and France are simply going for the easy target: Israel.
The proof in the pudding that the warnings by the three countries were misguided and damaging was the immediate reaction by the terrorist group, which “welcomed the joint statement issued by the leaders of Britain, France, and Canada, rejecting the policy of siege and starvation pursued by the occupation government against our people in the Gaza Strip, and the Zionist plans aimed at genocide and displacement.
“This position is an important step toward restoring respect for the principles of international law, which the terrorist Netanyahu government has sought to undermine and overturn,” it added.
Perhaps when terrorists who committed the worst massacre of the century agree with you, it is time to recalibrate your beliefs.
END
Eliminating Hamas: insights from Sri Lanka’s defeat of the Tamil Tigers
Security expert Moshe Elad argues that the case of Sri Lanka proves that terror groups can, in fact, be completely defeated through military means.
By PELED ARBELIMAY 21, 2025 09:50Updated: MAY 21, 2025 11:50
As Israel struggles with the issue of “eliminating Hamas” and ending its rule in the Gaza Strip, Col. (res.) Dr. Moshe Elad, a Middle East expert and former security coordinator of the Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts in the South Lebanon Security Zone, spoke to Maariv on Wednesday about the prospects of successfully dismantling terrorist organizations.
Elad drew on international case studies to explore whether such a goal is truly achievable—and pointed to one case that few in the West are comfortable discussing.
According to Elad, the global debate about whether terrorist organizations can be completely dismantled, or whether “total victory” is ever feasible, appears largely resolved in the context of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah.
The intense international pressure placed on Israel, he said, over accusations such as the starvation and dehydration of Gaza’s population, the destruction of southern Lebanese villages, and the branding of every Israeli sanction as a humanitarian crisis, serves to undermine Israel’s capacity to pursue absolute military success. In his words, “Let’s be honest—the world does not allow Israel to win a total victory over them.”
Elad identified four terrorist organizations from history that were effectively dismantled through various means: The Black Hundreds in Tsarist Russia, suppressed through both military and political means; Peru’s Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso), nearly eradicated in the 1990s; Germany’s Red Army Faction (Baader-Meinhof Group), which disbanded voluntarily; and the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which transitioned into a political movement aligned with Sinn Féin.
Yet Elad pointed to a fifth, seldom discussed example: the Sri Lankan government’s elimination of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), or Tamil Tigers, a group that posed one of the most resilient armed threats in South Asia for decades.
He described the Sri Lankan case as exceptional due to both the comprehensiveness of the victory and the extreme—and often morally fraught—measures used to achieve it.
The Tamil Tigers waged a 26-year campaign (1983–2009) to carve out an independent Tamil state in the north and east of the island. The group developed sophisticated military capabilities and basically pioneered the use of suicide bombers, some of whom were women and children.
Following the election of President Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2005, Sri Lanka shifted strategy from seeking a negotiated settlement to pursuing total military defeat of the LTTE.
How Sri Lanka defeated the Tamil Tigers and what it means for Israel
Between 2006 and 2009, the government embarked on a massive military campaign. Resources were reallocated to significantly expand the army, purchase advanced weaponry, and recruit thousands of soldiers. Operations took place across multiple fronts in LTTE-held territory, and special forces carried out incursions into enemy areas.
In parallel, the government mounted a successful diplomatic effort to block the LTTE’s external support—targeting diaspora funding networks, especially in Canada, the UK and Scandinavia. It persuaded several Western states to officially designate the LTTE as a terrorist organization, shutting down many of the group’s support structures.
Psychological operations played a crucial role. Disinformation was used to sow discord between the LTTE leadership and the Tamil population. Defectors were recruited as spies and informants. Yet these efforts, according to Elad, were not the decisive factor in the group’s defeat.
The final blow came through means that remain deeply controversial. Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians were killed during the final months of the war, many in designated “safe zones” that were nonetheless subjected to heavy bombardment. International organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, documented war crimes by the Sri Lankan army, including the targeting of hospitals, the use of civilians as human shields, and the disappearance of detainees.
Elad emphasized that the Tamil Tigers were not merely pushed back—they were annihilated. Their territory was reclaimed, their leadership eliminated, and the movement has shown virtually no resurgence since 2009. In Elad’s words, it was done “without a Supreme Court or B’Tselem, Sri Lankan-style.”
UN estimates from 2011 suggest that between 40,000 and 70,000 civilians were killed in the final months of fighting, particularly between January and May 2009. The Sri Lankan government has never confirmed these numbers, insisting that most of the casualties were LTTE combatants.
Humanitarian organizations reported being blocked from the conflict zones, journalists were barred, and witnesses were silenced or exiled. Evidence was allegedly destroyed. While the LTTE did use civilians as human shields, complicating moral and legal assessments, the scale of civilian deaths remains one of the most troubling aspects of the conflict’s end.
The international response was muted. Although there were calls from Western states and human rights groups for international investigations, these were simply rejected by the Sri Lankan government, which faced few consequences. Elad called it one of the rare and most complete instances of a terrorist organization’s total defeat, yet one marred by a heavy humanitarian price.
Elad suggested that geopolitical dynamics, rather than justice, shaped the West’s response. In the post-9/11 era, many countries were sympathetic to Sri Lanka’s framing of its war as a campaign against terrorism. The LTTE’s own record—pioneering suicide bombings, recruiting child soldiers, extorting Tamil communities abroad, and assassinating regional leaders like former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi—left it widely reviled. Sympathy for the Tamil cause declined as it became associated with a group perceived as particularly brutal.
Attempts by Tamil diaspora groups to raise awareness and pressure governments met with limited success. Only Canada and the UK imposed moderate sanctions or suspended aid. No comprehensive international investigation followed.
Sri Lanka also successfully portrayed the conflict as a domestic issue, arguing that its actions were necessary to preserve national sovereignty and not as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign.
Western countries, facing their own foreign policy fatigue after Iraq and Afghanistan, largely chose containment over confrontation. Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean and growing ties with China may also have dissuaded Western governments from applying real pressure.
END
WEST BANK/HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
IDF strikes over 115 terror targets in Gaza Strip, kills Hamas terrorists that attack on Oct. 7
In the past 24 hours, the Air Force attacked more than 115 targets in the Gaza Strip, including launchers, military buildings, tunnels, terrorist squads, and other infrastructure.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 21, 2025 14:43Updated: MAY 21, 2025 15:47
The IDF and Shin Bet struck over 115 terror targets in the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, killing Nukhba terrorists who participated in the October 7 massacre, the military confirmed on Wednesday.
IAF aircraft, guided by Division 162, targeted and killed Mohammad Shahin, a Nukhba terrorist from Hamas’s East Jabaliya battalion, in northern Gaza. Shaheen infiltrated Israeli territory and participated in the October 7 attack.
In the past 24 hours, the Air Force attacked more than 115 targets in the Gaza Strip, including launchers, military buildings, tunnels, terrorist squads, and other infrastructure.
At the same time, naval forces, working with ground troops, carried out attacks on terrorist targets in northern Gaza.
Additionally, the IDF carried out an airstrike Wednesday in the Tyre area of southern Lebanon, killing Hasin Nazih Baraj.
IDF strikes in Lebanon
Baraj was an expert in weapons manufacturing who worked in Hezbollah’s research, development and production division.
This division is responsible for developing, producing, and maintaining weapons, as well as expanding the group’s supply capabilities. It has overseen numerous weapons projects, including the production of precision-guided missiles.
An experienced engineer, Baraj was tasked with building the infrastructure for producing precision ground-to-ground missiles. His killing is intended to disrupt Hezbollah’s efforts to recover after Operation Northern Shield.
Baraj’s activities violated the agreement current between Israel and Lebanon.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/SYRIA/USA
Netanyahu: 20 hostages are still alive, Israel has brought back 148 alive
In his first press conference since 2024, Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that the IDF’s fighting in Lebanon led to the fall of the Assad regime.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, AMICHAI STEINMAY 21, 2025 20:02Updated: MAY 21, 2025 21:24
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his first press conference since December 2024 on Wednesday, calling the offensive in Gaza “an unprecedented operation in the history of wars,” and publicly stated that there are 20 hostages still alive in Gaza.
“We have returned so far 197 hostages, of whom 148 are alive. 20 are alive; we will return them all,” he said.
Before the release of former hostage Edan Alexander, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said that it still believed that the number of living hostages was 24 people. The fate of three of the hostages, who include one Israeli and two foreign nationals, is a serious concern for officials.
“If there is an opportunity for a temporary ceasefire to return hostages – we are prepared for it,” he said.
He also fired back at the High Court’s ruling regarding his attempt to fire Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and stated that he intended to select a new spy agency chief.
“In my opinion, there is a simple question here — will the High Court and the Attorney-General respect the law, which is the will of the people?” he said. “The country is based on democratic rule of law — it was established by elected officials… Now the question is whether they will respect the law or not.”
Netanyahu provides outline for IDF plan in Gaza
The prime minister confirmed that the IDF will seize all of Gaza’s territory, but that Jerusalem must “avert a humanitarian crisis.”
In the conference, Netanyahu noted that the IDF’s new operation, Gideon’s Chariots, would feature three stages.
In stage one, the IDF will allow a flow of basic food aid into Gaza to “prevent a humanitarian crisis.” In stage two, American companies will open up aid points for aid delivery. In stage three, the IDF will facilitate the movement of Gazans southwards to organized points and prevent Hamas from infiltrating and benefiting from aid.
He added that he was ready to end the Israel-Hamas War in exchange for specific demands.
“I am ready to end the war on clear conditions that will guarantee Israel’s security. The return of the hostages, the removal of Hamas from power, full disarmament, and we are implementing the Trump plan.”
He added that the military “enforce[s] the ceasefire in Lebanon with an iron fist at all times, and that the IDF’s operations in Lebanon had lead to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
END
End the war to get back the hostages. Save Israel
Netanyahu knows his coalition will collapse if he revives the kind of agreement he and his ministers accepted in January. That should not, and need not, faze him
By David Horovitz FollowToday, 2:15 pm
Clockwise from top left: Hostage Matan Zangauker speaks in a Hamas propaganda video issued on December 7, 2024. (Screenshot: Telegram); Palestinians receive meals from volunteers in Deir al-Balah, in the Gaza Strip, on April 19, 2025. (Ali Hassan/Flash90); Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives at the District Court in Tel Aviv on May 19, 2025. (Miriam Alster/Flash90); Israeli soldiers operating in Beit Lahia, in the northern Gaza Strip, on November 28, 2024 (Oren Cohen/Flash90).
This Editor’s Note was sent out on Wednesday in ToI’s weekly update email to members of the Times of Israel Community. To receive these Editor’s Notes as they’re released, join the ToI Community here.
Let’s deal with this right away. Contrary to Yair Golan’s incendiary assertion, Israel is not “killing babies in Gaza for a hobby.”
I don’t believe Golan, the former deputy IDF chief of staff and October 7 war hero who now helms what used to be the Labor Party, thinks Israel is doing so either. Twice in the hours after he made the remark in the course of an impassioned Tuesday morning radio interview, he attempted to walk it back without acknowledging he’d gone overboard — first by saying he had been aiming his criticism of the war at the government rather than the IDF and its soldiers, and then, in a televised address, tying himself in semantic knots when attempting in vain to reframe what he had said.
What Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is doing in Gaza, however, is fighting an intensifying war that, while avowedly and legitimately aimed at destroying Hamas and freeing the 58 hostages still held there 19 months after Hamas’s invasion and massacre, is reducing Gaza to rubble, causing growing numbers of Gaza civilian fatalities young and old, costing more Israeli soldiers’ lives, and endangering the hostages.
It is expanding the military campaign while telling the Israeli and global public less and less about the specifics of its operations.
It is ignoring the consistent will of two-thirds-plus of the Israeli public to secure the release of the hostages even at the price of ending the war — to return, essentially, to the deal that Netanyahu and his cabinet unanimously approved in January but chose not to pursue after the first of the three envisaged phases had been implemented.
It is also, as Golan was correct in saying, turning Israel into a “pariah state.”
Directly addressing Palestinian civilians in Gaza on Tuesday, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir pointed out: “We are not the ones who brought this destruction upon you. We did not start the war. We did not rob you of food, shelter, or money. We are not the ones hiding in hospitals or schools. We are not the ones staying in luxury hotels while you live in hardship. This is your leadership, those who are holding our hostages. Hamas is responsible for starting the war. It is responsible for the dire situation of the population. It destroyed, and it will not be the one to rebuild.”
True. All true.
But as things stand, the government is, by its own hand, destroying what little international support remains for its efforts, with Netanyahu declaring that Israel is going to “take over all of Gaza” and acknowledging (Hebrew link) that the Gaza civilian populace is nearing the brink of starvation, after 11 weeks in which Israel halted supplies. He has accurately explained that Hamas has been commandeering aid and profiting from it, but he has failed to expeditiously introduce a long-discussed viable alternative supply mechanism.
The government is itself discrediting those legitimate goals of the war — the obligation to get back the hostages and make sure Hamas cannot rise again to slaughter Israelis — with relentless unconscionable ministerial and official declarations that the wider goals of the military offensive include destroying all of Gaza, cleaning it out, forcing the entire populace into a narrow area at the southern foot of the Strip, creating conditions in which Gazans will leave in large numbers for unspecified third countries, retaining the territory, and reviving Jewish settlement there.
Hamas abducted 251 hostages with the clear-eyed, cynical intention of using them as leverage to ensure that it would survive Israel’s military response to its massacre of 1,200 people in southern Israel on October 7, 2023. It will not easily give up the last of them, and it will not easily relinquish its control of Gaza and slink away into exile, whatever it might profess readiness to do in any negotiated agreement.
And that is precisely why more than two-thirds of the Israeli public have been pleading with their government to accept a deal that will ostensibly bring the return of the hostages in return for an end to the war and, yes, the release of many more murderous terrorists:
Because Hamas can be relied upon to break any commitment it may make. And thus Israel, sooner rather than later, will need to resume its military campaign. But in the meantime it can secure the release of many, perhaps even most of the hostages, before more of the living captives are dead.
Fighting on, with a growing death toll of Gazans, soldiers and hostages, and with deplorable aims set out by the likes of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is both tearing at the moral fabric of our society and destroying Israel’s international legitimacy, thereby playing directly into Hamas’s hands.
Because fighting on, with a growing death toll of Gazans, soldiers and hostages, and with deplorable aims set out by the likes of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is both tearing at the moral fabric of our society and destroying Israel’s international legitimacy, thereby playing directly into Hamas’s hands.
Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy on Tuesday delivered a blisteringly furious speech in Parliament in which he suspended UK-Israel trade talks and threatened further punitive measures: “Netanyahu’s government is planning to drive Gazans from their homes into a corner of the Strip to the south and permit them a fraction of the aid that they need,” he noted. “Yesterday, Minister Smotrich even spoke of Israeli forces ‘cleansing’ Gaza, ‘destroying what’s left,’ of resident Palestinians ‘being relocated to third countries.’ We must call this what it is. It is extremism. It is dangerous. It is repellent. It is monstrous.”
Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy speaks to MPs during a statement on Israel and the war in Gaza in the House of Commons, in London, on May 20, 2025. (House of Commons / AFP)
The UK’s stance leaves the Trump administration as the only relatively supportive major ally Israel now has as regards the Gaza war. And, indeed, it was President Donald Trump himself who first raised the idea of the morally untenable and unworkable forced evacuation of all Gazans and the leveling of the Strip. But Trump has since wobbled on that idea, latterly insisting that he would not be seeking to expel anybody, and, last week, warning that “there’s a lot of bad things going on” in Gaza: “We have to help also out the Palestinians. You know, a lot of people are starving in Gaza, so we have to look at both sides.”
Netanyahu consistently denies that coalition politics are driving his policies on the war. But the arithmetic is simple: If he stops the war, Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir take their far-right parties out of the coalition, and he loses his majority.
Okay, but so what?
Israel’s existential security interests, its global alliances and its internal cohesion are at stake. But if that’s not enough, the prime minister can reasonably bet on himself to politically survive a deal to bring back the hostages in return for ending the campaign.
He would be able to present it as the vindication of 19 months of military and diplomatic pressure. Domestically, he would be able to insist that he was always doing his utmost to secure the hostages’ freedom. He would be able to depict Hamas as a radically reduced threat, and to highlight his intention to strike at it whenever and wherever it tries to raise its head. For a little while, at least, the killing would halt. Reservists could go back to their families and their jobs. The economy could revive.
US President Donald Trump arrives with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the group photo with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14, 2025. (Alex Brandon/AP)
He would be able to work with potential regional partners on a non-Hamas postwar Gaza. The path would reopen to wider regional normalization. Britain and other horrified allies would be reconciled. Trump would be delighted.
He’d pull Israel back from the abyss.
So, yes, his coalition would collapse. But he might just free the hostages, halt the deaths for a while, win back the Israeli public and some of the international community… and probably win reelection.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russian Strike On Ukrainian Training Ground Results In Mass Casualties
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 12:00 PM
Despite ongoing US-backed efforts to get Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table again, days after last week’s Istanbul talks, both warring sides have on Wednesday ramped up tit-for-tat assaults on each other’s territory.
Ukrainian drones have once again threatened the Moscow region, leading to the capital’s four airports temporarily suspending nearly all flights for a period on Wednesday.
Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports halted inbound and outbound flights, and Sheremetyevo suspended arrivals, the country’s Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed, after air defense missile systems downed three inbound drones on Moscow.
“Emergency services are working at the crash sites,” an official Moscow city statement said. The Defense Ministry had earlier in the day said it destroyed 159 Ukrainian inbound drones overnight. Drones threatened several regions across southern Russia, as well as at least 40 UAVs spotted over Crimea.
Ukraine on Wednesday announced that six of its servicemen were killed, and at least ten more were wounded when a missile attack struck a training camp in northeast Ukraine’s Sumy region the day prior.
However, Russia’s defense ministry said the death toll was much higher, according to its intelligence estimates. It indicated the missile attack “killed up to 70 Ukrainian service members, including 20 instructors.”
Like many other such mass casualty events of late, it will likely be impossible to confirm which said has the accurate casualty numbers, given ‘fog of war’ and lack of journalistic access on the ground to many of these sites.
The location was reportedly a shooting range, according to Ukraine’s national guard, which further said the commander of the unit had been suspended. The strike happened during the light of day.
Ukraine’s military leadership has in some regions had a ban in place of large gatherings of troops or training which takes place out in the open, given the ever-present danger of missile and drone attacks from Russia. Reuters notes that “During more than three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Moscow’s forces have inflicted casualties in attacks on Ukrainian military educational institutions and various formal outdoor gatherings.
This large-scale attack on the training ground comes at a time of increased domestic division and infighting within Ukraine, including apparently within the military command.
For example, one high-ranking commander has within the past week reportedly resigned in disgust:
Oleksandr Shyrshyn, battalion commander of the 47 Separate Mechanized Brigade, has submitted his resignation, sharply criticizing Ukraine’s military leadership for what he described as senseless orders and unnecessary casualties.
“I have never received more stupid objectives than in the current direction,” Shyrshyn wrote in a blunt Facebook post announcing his decision on May 16. “Someday I will tell you the details, but the stupid loss of people, trembling in front of a stupid generals, leads to nothing but failures.”
“I hope your children will also serve in the infantry and carry out your orders,” he added.
Russia’s MoD released a grim video which strongly suggests true casualty numbers are actually very high after the attack:
This is probably why Kiev authorities are taking such pains to investigate the Sumy training ground attack. The Zelensky government is trying to assure the population that it’s war policy is not “senseless” – also at a time recruiters continue brutally rounding up fresh recruits, in some instances from off the streets or from inside cafes and restaurants.
This war of attrition is becoming increasingly unpopular among Ukrainians, and is certainly being met with ‘war weariness’ among Western populations, whose tax dollars have been propping up the Ukrainian war machine. This is also why President Trump has been urging both sides to end the “bloodbath” and senseless killing.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Tulsi On Fauci’s Role In Funding COVID Pandemic: “Is It Any Wonder He Sought A Preemptive Pardon?”
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Megyn Kelly that one reason Dr. Anthony Fauci sought a preemptive pardon before Joe Biden left the White House is because he lied under oath about helping fund the Covid-19 pandemic.
Gabbard recounted the numerous times that Fauci denied providing funding for gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) while being questioned under oath by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).
“So is it any wonder that he sought a preemptive pardon for anything during a certain period of time by President Biden before he left office,” Gabbard asked.
In the five years since the pandemic first began, the official story that the SARS-CoV-2 virus originated in a Wuhan wet market has been gradually walked back by members of the media, the intelligence community and the government.
The most likely origin of the virus, according to Kelly, is from a lab leak at the WIV where research was being performed on bat coronaviruses.
Earlier this month, the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China released a white paper claiming that the U.S. was trying to “shift the blame” for the virus to China, even as Chinese officials accused the U.S. of potentially being the origin point of the virus.
Gabbard said she has not yet read the white paper but maintains that the postmortem on the Covid-19 pandemic is far from over.
Gabbard explained, “I created… the Directors Initiative Group that is focused on investigating a number of the president’s top priorities and the things that the American people really deserve and want to know the truth about. The origins of COVID-19 is one of them… [and] a lot of the work that has been done is on covid.gov.”
Gabbard has also teamed up with Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Jay Bhattacharya to find the specific link between gain-of-function research being done by the Wuhan Lab and its partnership with U.S. nonprofit Ecohealth Alliance.
If that link can be established, it would directly link Fauci, through Ecohealth Alliance, to funding the research that gave us Covid-19.
This could open up new possibilities of criminal prosecution of Fauci at the state level as well as the possibility of Biden’s autopen-signed pardon being revoked.
END
FDA No Longer Recommends COVID Vaccine For Healthy Babies
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 02:25 PM
Via Headline USA,
The U.S. government no longer recommends the COVID-19 vaccine for healthy babies thanks to new guidelines from the Trump administration, which said Tuesday it will limit approval for seasonal COVID-19 shots to seniors and others at high risk pending more data on everyone else.
Top officials for the Food and Drug Administration laid out new standards for updated COVID shots, saying they’d continue to use a streamlined approach to make them available to adults 65 and older as well as children and younger adults with at least one high-risk health problem.
But the FDA framework, published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, urges companies to conduct large, lengthy studies before tweaked vaccines can be approved for healthier people.
Previously, federal policy recommended an annual COVID shot for all Americans six months and older.
In the paper and a subsequent online webcast, the FDA’s top vaccine official said more than 100 million Americans still should qualify for what he termed a booster under the new guidance.
Dr. Vinay Prasad described the new approach as a “reasonable compromise” that will allow vaccinations in high-risk groups to continue while generating new data about whether they still benefit healthier people.
“For many Americans we simply do not know the answer as to whether or not they should be getting the seventh or eighth or ninth or tenth COVID-19 booster,” said Prasad, who joined the FDA earlier this month. He previously spent more than a decade in academia, frequently criticizing the FDA’s handling of drug and vaccine approvals.
It’s unclear what the upcoming changes mean for people who may still want a fall COVID-19 shot but don’t clearly fit into one of the categories.
Provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows more than 47,000 Americans died from COVID-related causes last year. The virus was the underlying cause for two-thirds of those and it was a contributing factor for the rest.
Health experts say there are legitimate questions about how much everyone still benefits from yearly COVID vaccination or whether they should be recommended only for people at increased risk.
In June, an influential panel of advisers to the CDC is set to debate which vaccines should be recommended to which groups.
MARK CRISPIN MILER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER…
Some argue that Patel and Bongino have failed to live up to expectation; what is your view? many in MAGA world say they are under-performing & now blocking for Epstein world; what is your view?
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 21 |
Analysis: Trump’s FBI bosses are angering the MAGA media bubble they once stoked
‘Bongino’s contentious post on X came after he and his boss, FBI director Kash Patel, appeared on Maria Bartiromo’s Fox News show. The choice of platform was telling: Bartiromo is a Trump zealot, her show is a regular promoter of pro-Trump conspiracy theories and is widely trusted by the president’s base.
Sunday’s telecast was billed as a long-awaited exclusive interview. Patel and Bongino blamed past FBI leaders for political bias and insisted that they are fixing what Trump fans believe is broken about the agency.’
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
NEWS ADDICTS NO 1
———-
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESOMG Releases First-Ever Footage Inside Epstein’s Mysterious Gold-Domed TempleThe O’Keefe Media Group released first-ever footage of the mysterious gold-domed building interior of Jeffrey Epstein’s temple following his arrest.The footage received by OMG shows a 360 degree view of Epstein’s temple with a celestial ceiling, astrological figures and bizarre statues.Many of Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes were committed on his private island Little St. James in the Caribbean.Watch:NOW PUBLIC: 360-Degree View …READ THE FULL REPORTJustice Department Opens Criminal Investigation Into Andrew CuomoThe Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into former New York governor – and current NYC Mayoral front-runner – Andrew Cuomo over his testimony on nursing home deaths during the Covid pandemic.Last month House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) sent a resubmitted criminal referral to Attorney General Pam Bondi, demanding the Department of Justice pursue charges against disgraced former New …READ THE FULL REPORTLeak: Israel Preparing to Strike Iran’s Nuclear FacilitiesIsrael is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to a leak to CNN.CNN reported on Tuesday that the United States obtained new intel suggesting Israel is currently planning on striking Iran’s nuclear and uranium enrichment facilities.No final decision has been made, according to CNN.President Trump recently demanded that Tehran stop enriching Uranium.Iran’s Supreme Leader blasted the Trump Admin on …READ THE FULL REPORTElon Musk Announces Significant Change to His Political Strategy Going ForwardIn a move that could mildly sting the GOP’s short-term political aspirations, it appears megadonor Elon Musk will be tightening up his coffers.Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, spoke at the Qatar Economic Forum Tuesday, outlining his newfound political strategy.Independent journalist Sawyer Merritt posted the relevant clip on X:NEWS: Elon Musk says he will spending “a lot …READ THE FULL REPORTCrowd Goes Wild When Female Track Star Refuses to Let Trans Opponent Keep Her Off the Winner’s PodiumThe best female in a high school track event won applause after she stepped atop the first-place podium Saturday, moments after the transgender athlete who won the event stepped down.Reese Hogan made the brief podium protest Saturday at the Division 3 California Interscholastic Federation Southern Section Finals, according to Fox News.Hogan had reason to be proud. The Crean Lutheran High …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| SCOTUS Hands Trump Big Immigration Win — Opens Door to Deportation of 350,000 VenezuelansThe Supreme Court will allow the Trump administration to strip legal protections from 350,000 Venezuelans, potentially exposing them to deportation.The court’s order, issued Monday with only one noted dissent, puts on hold a ruling from a federal judge in San Francisco that kept in place Temporary Protected Status for the Venezuelans that would have otherwise expired last month.The justices provided …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Patel and Bongino Face Patriot Backlash After Claiming ‘Epstein Did Kill Himself’The newly appointed FBI leadership under Director Kash Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino has ignited a firestorm across conservative circles after publicly backing the official narrative that Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide — AND brushing off explosive concerns about the shocking assassination attempts on President Donald Trump.During a tense Fox News appearance with Maria Bartiromo, the two Trump allies, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| DOJ Launches Investigation Into Chicago Mayor Brandon JohnsonThe U.S. Department of Justice has officially launched a civil rights investigation into the City of Chicago under Mayor Brandon Johnson, following allegations that the city’s hiring practices under his leadership may violate federal anti-discrimination laws.In a letter on Monday, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division informed Johnson that it is investigating whether his administration engaged in a “pattern or practice …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump Admin Slaps Down Chuck Schumer’s Claim About Mexican Ship That Hit Brooklyn BridgeThe Trump administration’s Department of Homeland Security rebuked Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday after he claimed that a tall Mexican Navy training ship crashing into the Brooklyn Bridge on Saturday could potentially have been avoided.Schumer insinuated in a post to X that President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, which has made sweeping job cuts across several federal …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| 1,000-Foot-Tall ‘Mega Tsunami’ Threatens to Sweep Away These 3 Regions in the US, Experts WarnExperts have issued a warning about a potential “mega tsunami” that could sweep away entire communities with its massive waves.Alaska, Hawaii and the West Coast of the mainland US face an ongoing threat due to how close they are to disaster zones — and the West Coast just received a renewed warning.A new study published in the Proceedings of the …READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Is Japan About To Hike Rates AND Restart Yield Curve Contr
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 10:20 AM
By Elwin de Groot and Michael Every of Rabobank
Iran’s Khamenei said nuclear talks with US are unlikely to “lead to any outcome”… as US intel says Israel is preparing for a strike on Iran, seeing oil prices move higher. The Israeli press also says Iranian efforts to recruit Israeli agents have skyrocketed, Tehran trying to arrange high-profile assassinations inside Israel to mirror what Israel can do inside Iran, increasing the pressure further. That’s as President Trump is reportedly frustrated by Gaza war and wants PM Netanyahu to “wrap it up”; and the EU will review its association agreement with Israel, as their officials say diplomatic efforts stopped the EU from already halting the agreement; and the UK suspended trade talks with Jerusalem and attacked its ‘repellent’ extremism. Moreover, US Secretary of State Rubio said of Syria: “It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they’re facing, are maybe weeks —not many months— away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up,” which is justification for the US and EU removing sanctions on it. In short, the entire energy-rich region is in flux. And so is much else.
The IMF just asked the US to reduce its fiscal deficit as the Big Beautiful Bill will cut taxes and boost spending much further; and that’s as Reuters says the US ‘is preparing for a long war with China that could hit its bases and homeland’ and Trump is set to launch a “Golden Dome” missile defence system that will cost $175bn and almost certainly won’t be ready within his term of office, as promised. Trump reportedly also wants the UK to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029, so within the current parliament, increasing its fiscal deficit too.
Against that backdrop, the downgrade of the US by Moody’s last Friday may have not come as a huge surprise and its debt was already trading “as if” it no longer belonged to the AAA bucket. Still, the re-rating of US debt is having potential effects in corners of the market. Managers of Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund system are flagging they may be forced to sell their Treasury holdings, since the pension fund only allows them to invest more than 10% of their assets in Treasuries if the US has a AAA or equivalent rating from an approved rating agency. Japan’s Rating & Investment Information is the only approved agency left out there having the US at the highest rating level. The rating agency keeps the US’ rating on stable outlook and has indicated that the situation “hasn’t significantly changed” since it made its assessment in February.
But other scenarios could obviously play out. The US Congress is moving closer to endorsing Trump tax-cuts, leading to a significant increase in deficits and debt: with the IMF publicly calling for the US to reduce its deficit, such a scenario could lead to a gradual reduction in the share of Treasuries in various investment portfolios. Potentially, so could Trump considering an executive order to open US retirement plans to private equity, which would allow savers to access funds focused on “corporate buyouts and other high-octane deals” – so fewer US Treasuries(?)
Meanwhile, whereas European/German long-term yields are trading at levels that are still some 30-40bp lower than in early March –when the EU’s and Germany’s defence and infrastructure spending plans startled markets– those in the US and Japan are trading close to or even higher than the levels seen in early March. A 20y bond auction in Japan saw the lowest demand since 2012 and this pushed the 30y Japanese yield to its highest level since its 1999 debut. It certainly doesn’t help when your own prime minister acknowledges the country’s fiscal situation is “extremely poor, and worse than Greece’s” – even if their intent is to signal opposition to fresh tax cuts financed by additional debt issuance.
Japan’s core inflation rate has come down from its peak levels of nearly 3% y/y in late-2023 to sit at just over 1.5%. That level, however, was only surpassed twice in the past thirty years: in 2014 and 1997. But in both instances the inflation spike was due to significant changes to the VAT system. If Japan has now entered (?) an episode of more ‘normal’ inflation, it could lead to more persistent upward pressures on (real) bond yields, which would raise interest costs.
And, like in the US and Europe, the central bank has been dialling down its bond purchases, which, next to weaker demand for bonds, could also be contributing to higher liquidity-risk premiums. Japan’s public debt ratio (214% in 2024) is the highest among developed economies. The BOJ still holds a staggering share (around 50%) of public debt on its balance sheet, but even if the central bank does not slow down its purchases, the ‘net’ amount of debt would still be in the 100%+ range and comparable to that of – indeed – Greece’s, back in 2007.
We want to avoid burning our fingers on the Japanese bond market – betting against it is commonly known as the widow-maker trade. But we ponder whether Japan could serve as an example for Europe or even, perhaps, the US – Japan, after all, has been the test case for many unconventional policies in recent (monetary) history.
First off, the country may be better placed than both of these peers to tackle bond market turbulence, and the impact of higher yields on governments’ financing costs. Only 12% of JGBs is owned by foreign parties. So, arguably, the government could introduce some form of wealth tax to claw back part of interest payments on its bonds. Note the similarities with the suggestions for a so-called Mar-a-Lago accord, in which the US could try to lessen its debt servicing costs by forcing its allies to term out their debt holdings at a below-market return, or by imposing some form of tax on foreign holders of Treasuries. The major difference is that Japan’s solutions could be less controversial, since domestic tax policies would suffice to achieve the desired outcome.
However, such a clawback only gets Japan so far. A wealth tax that offsets the higher debt servicing costs helps to contain the fiscal deficit and debt, but that does not provide the government with additional fiscal space to pursue its strategic goals, such as defence spending or reducing dependence on foreign inputs (note the similarities with the European situation here). Barring monetary support, more substantial tax increases or spending cuts in other areas would be required – and that could quickly erode support for the ruling party.
Alternatively, the BOJ could resume its government bond purchases. But this would arguably lead to higher inflation and would probably weaken the currency – at a time when the JPY is already under increased scrutiny of the US administration. Japanese finance minister Kato yesterday said that “[…] exchange rates should be set by markets, and that excessive volatility in currency moves has an adverse economic and financial impact.” Weakness in the yen could undermine any trade agreement between the US and Japan. So, to mitigate this impact of quantitative easing, could the BOJ simultaneously raise its policy rates in an attempt to achieve a currency-neutral policy mix of higher rates and de facto yield curve control?
Meanwhile, in trade: China’s Xi stepped up calls for industrial self-sufficiency –so, no rebalancing then?– and China said it will respond to US chip curbs; Malaysia is to press ahead with Huawei AI, testing the US position on that issue, as Nvidia’s CEO says US chip curbs on China are ‘a failure’; G7 countries are discussing tariffs on oversupplied, low-value Chinese products; the EU is considering a €2 de minimis charge on incoming Chinese packages; the EU is also expected to propose a quota for Russian gas, potentially offering companies a legal way to end their contracts; the US believes new sanctions on Russia may harm peace talks; India imposed restrictions targeting nearly 42% of inbound goods from Bangladesh; and Japan is taking a hardline position ahead of trade talks, demanding the US remove all reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on it.
So, yes, much is in flux.
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
WTI Erases Israel-Iran Spike As Crude & Gasoline Stocks See Unexpected Build
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 10:39 AM
Oil prices are modestly higher ahead of this morning’s official energy inventory and supply data, but have come dramatically back off the overnight spike highs driven by CNN headlines suggesting Israel is ready to strike Iranian nuclear enriuchment sites.
“Either the impact on the oil market in case of an attack is assumed to be low, or the probability for an attack is assumed to be low,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB.
Wednesday’s gain “is not much when we are talking bombs in the Middle East major oil producing region.”
Overnight also saw API report another sizable crude inventory build, while products drewdown (again)…
API
- Crude +2.5mm
- Cushing -443k
- Gasoline -3.24mm
- Distillates -1.4mm
DOE
- Crude +1.33mm
- Cushing -457k
- Gasoline +816k – biggest build since January
- Distillates +579k
A smaller than expected crude build was offset by an unexpected build in Gasoline stocks according to the official DOE data…
Source: Bloomberg
Including a 843k barrel addition to SPR, total US crude stocks rose for the second week in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
US Crude production was up very modestly last week – hovering just below record highs – while the rig count continues to reject Trump’s ‘Drill, baby, drill’ narrative…
Source: Bloomberg
Geopolitical concerns have for now overshadowed expectations of looser balances heading into the second half of the year, as OPEC and its allies bring back barrels to the market.
Source: Bloomberg
US shale oil output hasn’t peaked and can still expand, but not if prices are near $50 a barrel, ConocoPhillips’ chief executive officer said Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Trump will not be best pleased if geopolitical tensions raise the price of oil and wreck his inflation-busting drill-baby-drill hopes of declining pump prices for the average American.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
SOUTH ARICA
The downward spiral of South Arica:
As Ramaphosa Heads To White House, It’s Now “Treason” For White Farmers To Leave South Africa
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 10:45 AM
Elon Musk will join President Donald Trump’s meeting with South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House later today.
The Pretoria-born billionaire has been a staunch critic of Ramaphosa’s government amid the ongoing claims of genocide against the White minority in the nation of his birth.
The timing of Ramaphosa’s visit – just days after Trump accepted dozens of Afrikaner refugees – has sparked fears of an Oval Office clash reminiscent of the one Ukrainian president Zelensky faced earlier this year.
Trump will be joined by Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, among others.
South Africa’s government plans to offer Musk a workaround of local Black-ownership laws for his Starlink internet service to operate in the country, aiming to ease tensions with both the billionaire and Trump, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
Ramaphosa’s office said the White House meeting, set to begin at 11:30 a.m. ET, will offer a “platform to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries.”
* * *
As Brandon Smith detailed earlier via Alt-Market.us, some people might be wondering why a backwater nation like South Africa has become a flash point in the global debate over politics and culture. It’s really not that hard to understand once you recognize the core conflict, which is in part about racial division but also about the fundamental evils of the political left and socialism.
South Africa represents a perfect petri dish, a window into the minds of progressive authoritarians. The country is near the end point of the natural socialist evolution – From “hopeful humanist endeavor” to the communist slave plantation that all socialist adventures inevitably become.
A key pillar of leftist authoritarianism is an obsessive desire to prevent people from walking away. In other words, citizens are seen as property of the collective and property of the greater progressive experiment. When citizens try to leave, this is treated as a crime beyond reckoning.
It’s a concept I’ve been writing about for many years now. Walking away from from the leftist plantation brings the entire edifice into question; it is the worst thing a citizen can do.
Afrikaners that want to immigrate to the US under the refugee program put in place by the Trump Administration are being targeted by a malicious smear campaign. Recently, the SA parliament debated what should be done about these immigrants and also debated how to protect SA’s image in the world stage.
Their narrative was broad, but it basically asserts that Afrikaners that talk openly about racial discrimination and race motivated murders of whites might be investigated under treason laws. By extension, Afrikaner refugees seeking to leave SA could be designated as threats to national security. Anyone warning about the growing movement for racial genocide of Afrikaners is a potential traitor and a threat to the country (Go to 118:00 for the discussion).
Interestingly, the pursuit of investigations was announced just before South Africa’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile asked white farmers to “please stay”. Meanwhile, socialist and communist party leaders continue to call for a total land grab and reparations, swiping farms from Afrikaners and giving them to black citizens.
As is typical with leftist governments the fallback is to deny all claims and evidence, then gaslight and demonize the people that speak out. The Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni made it clear that the State Security Agency (SSA) is on the alert for any disinformation campaigns, foreign meddling and treasonous acts.
Concerns over the United States cropped up during the sitting and officials argued that US involvement in relocating refugees was a “violation of South Africa’s sovereignty”. This doesn’t make much sense, unless we keep in mind that Trump cut off foreign subsidies to South Africa because of the Afrikaner issue and this has placed their economy in a precarious position. The SA government seems to think they are entitled to American tax money. They’re not.
Those asking Ntshavheni questions during the session used words including “racist” and “right-wing” as well as “lunatics” and “civil war.” The rhetoric is designed to stifle dissent and frighten Afrikaners into apathy. We have seen this same strategy in multiple leftist plantations around the world recently.
From the UK to France to Germany and Romania, European governments have used censorship and door-to-door arrests of political opponents and people speaking out on issues like open borders and the invasion of violent third-world immigrants. White citizens are not allowed to criticize migrant polices, or they risk being punished.
In the US, conservatives are very familiar with the treason narrative after years of the Biden Administration accusing MAGA of being a “threat to Democracy”. This is nothing new.
However, South Africa’s case has escalated beyond persecution. Leftists aren’t just attacking Afrikaners as racists that “want Apartheid back”, they are also desperate to stop whites from leaving. You would think if Afrikaners were so reprehensible the leftists would WANT them to exit the country as quickly as possible. Instead, the establishment has engages in a vicious slander war to shut down their efforts to migrate to the US.
A member and candidate of the ruling party (the ANC) wrote this week in the Africa Times:
“South Africa’s Asset Forfeiture Unit (AFU) has sweeping powers under the Prevention of Organised Crime Act (POCA Act 121 of 1998) to seize property deemed to be the proceeds of crime. It has been used successfully against corrupt officials, criminal syndicates, and even bogus NGOs.
But what of land obtained through historical fraud? Why has the AFU not moved decisively to investigate the origin of property titles, especially where the state was the original grantor or lessee?
Let me be blunt: white South Africans should be compelled to demonstrate the lawful origin of title—not just via deeds, but through ethical justice and the question of how the land was first acquired. If such proof fails, that land must revert to the state and be redistributed under constitutional and equitable parameters…”
He continues:
“Let us not sugar-coat this: when South Africans—whether political parties or private citizens—go to the USA to solicit intervention or publicly declare persecution, they commit an act tantamount to treason. They bring shame not only upon the Republic, but spit in the face of those who died so they could vote…”
“Where is the legal courage to prosecute this betrayal? The Intelligence Services Act, RICA, and Foreign Interference Bill must be invoked to investigate external political influence masquerading as refugee claims and foreign ‘investment pressure’…”
And this showcases the underlying hypocrisy of race communists – The political left wants revenge for Apartheid against people that had nothing to do with Apartheid. They want to steal the land that those white farmers cultivated for generations using legal chicanery. The farmers must then “prove” their ownership was not obtained through racial injustice using a government-run struggle session (guilty until proven innocent).
At the same time leftists also assert that white farmers that abandon their lands and leave for the US are traitors. The Afrikaners are trapped, and that’s just the way leftists like it.
Social media is rife with woke activists calling Afrikaners racists and cowards for wanting to go to America. Activists in America have threatened violence against white refugees, claiming that they want to “bring Apartheid to the US”. Other critics try to dissuade potential refugees by asserting that when they enter the US they will be “at the bottom” and will not survive in the American economy. I believe that this campaign is at least partially coordinated.
Keep in mind that Afrikaners know full well that they will be starting from scratch in the US, and they don’t care. Many of them are leaving behind property and a life they have built over decades. What I find refreshing about these migrants is how different they are in temperament from the millions of illegal migrants we have been dealing with from third world counties.
Afrikaners say they want to contribute, to earn their keep in America and to assimilate. This is a completely different attitude from immigrants heralding from central and south America that arrogantly demand welfare subsidies, easy labor access and cry racism when they’re asked to assimilate or learn English.
Furthermore, leftists never address the obvious question here – If there is no threat to white Afrikaners and they are actually living the high life without any fear, then why are they willing to leave everything they worked for to come to America? Listen to the deafening sound of crickets…
Another question that leftists can’t seem to answer is why they care so much? Why are they so emotionally fragile over Afrikaners leaving for another country? What are they REALLY angry about?
The reaction of South African politicians and leftists to this event tells us everything we need to know about their true motives – They hate the Afrikaners, but they also think they own the Afrikaners. They will do anything to prevent their racial equity Utopia from being exposed as a farce.
South Africa’s denial of genocide is predicated on a logical fallacy – The idea that not all white people have been attacked or killed, therefore the current situation does not qualify as a genocide. Under Gregory H Stanton’s 10 Stages Of Genocide, written as a kind of alarm meter for impending tragedy, South Africa actually meets 8 out of 10 of the requirements for a genocidal scenario.
Nearly all of the pieces are in place, including official group classification, discrimination, dehumanization, preparation and persecution. There’s the open calls to “kill the Boers” (Kill the white farmers) by leftist political parties, government complicity in property theft and redistribution, as well as thousands of racially motivated murders which the SA government has tried to hide, categorizing them as basic crimes rather than racial crimes.
The African National Congress has implemented at least 142 race-based laws (similar to DEI policies in the US) designed to redistribute wealth, property and jobs away from the white population into the hands of the black population.
And, the progressive authoritarians believe they have the perfect justification for the continuing oppression of whites – Because Apartheid existed 35 years ago in South Africa, this means that any brutality that happens to Afrikaners today is fair game.
It’s the same argument that leftists use in Europe and the US: “White westerners were colonizers and colonization is evil, therefore, as repentance for their sins against the multicultural gods, whites must allow their societies to be deconstructed and submit to generations of abuse.”
My question is, why would we do that? We can simply organize and tribalize if that’s the intention of the progressive movement. We can easily drop the hammer on them if necessary. The only reason progressives and socialists think they can railroad white citizens in South Africa is because they assume we will sit back and let them.
Just so there’s no misunderstanding, everything happening in South Africa is a consequence of progressive governance. The race targeting of whites, the crumbling infrastructure, the 32% unemployment rate, the ongoing civil instability, etc. They’ve had 30 years to make things better and instead they made things worse.
Conservatives have no political power and white citizens have no political power (their representation in government is next to nil).
One might wonder why the government hasn’t swiped all the farm land from the Afrikaners already? The conundrum for progressive authoritarians is that they want to, but the vast majority of their domestic food production relies on the expertise of white farmers. They remember the starvation crisis that happened when Zimbabwe ethnically cleansed white farmers. They have to get rid of the Afrikaners slowly and replace them with black farmers over a period of years.
Utility and political optics require that the SA government keep Afrikaner farmers trapped within the country so they can continue to produce until the government sees fit to eliminate them completely.
I believe the “treason” narrative is part of this agenda, along with the general smear campaign. If even a handful of Afrikaners are able to come to the US and succeed this will encourage thousands more to leave SA. The country will then lose a large portion of its most productive citizens. The last vestiges of civil stability will disappear. South Africa will collapse.
This is why some officials are begging Afrikaners to stay. This why the government is talking about national security concerns over a mere 59 immigrants leaving for America. Secretly, they know that an eventual mass exodus of white farmers is coming and it will crush their fraudulent system.
END
Watch: Trump Stuns South Africa’s Ramaphosa, Plays ‘Kill The Boer’ Clip In The Oval Office, Destroys NBC Reporter
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 01:05 PM
Update (1300ET): Well, for those who were anticipating a Vance-Zelensky shitshow redux at today’s meeting between US President Trump and South African President Ramaphosa… they were not disappointed.
As the topic of white genocide cam up, Ramaphosa was quick to dispel the ‘conspiracy’; but Trump very quickly told his aides to ‘roll the tape’ at which videos of black leaders in South Africa calling for the murder of whites (Boers) along with video of burial sites for whites killed in South Africa.
As the chants of ‘kill the Boer’ rang around The Oval Office, Ramaphosa grew very uncomfortable:
Ramaphosa, thoughtfully and quietly responded claiming that “this is not government policy,” adding that “our democracy allows for free expression” and reaffirmed that “our government is completely against” what President Trump was describing. Trump responded:
“You have hundreds of people, thousands of people trying to come into our country because they feel they’re going to be killed and their land is going to be confiscated, and you do have laws that were passed that give you the right to confiscate land.”
As the clip (of burial sites and 100,000 people chanting for death to whites) ended and Trump turned to the reporter pool, NBC News reporter Peter Alexander shouted a question about the Qatari jet being offered to the US DoD, at which Trump exploded…
NBC: “The Pentagon announced it would be accepting a Qatari jet to be used…”
TRUMP: “WHAT are you talking about? You know, you ought to GET OUT of here! What does this have to do with the Qatari jet?”
“We’re talking about a lot of other things. It’s NBC trying to GET OFF the subject of what you just saw [white genoc*de].”
“For you to go into a [different] subject […] Go back. You ought to go back to your studio at NBC because Brian Roberts and the people that run that place, they ought to be investigated. They are so terrible, the way you run that network. And you’re a DISGRACE. No more questions from you.”
Ramaphosa diplomatically urged Trump to take this discussion offline.
Developing…
* * *
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1319 UP 0.0031 PTS OR 31 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 144.10 DOWN 0.215 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3397 UP .0002 OR 2 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3894 DOWN 0.0015 (CDN DOLLAR UP 15 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 10.77 PTS OR 0.32%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 152.15 PTS OR 0.64%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .61%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 348.76 PTS OR 1.49%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 10.77PTS OR 0.32%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.61%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 37.60 PTS OR 0.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3309.40
silver:$33.15
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.59 UP 0.02 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.127% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.529% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.249 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.630 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6120 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1326 UP 0.0038 OR 38 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.77 DOWN 0.540 OR YEN IS UP 54 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8036 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0043 OR 43 BASIS pts to 1.3866
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.2028, CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2006
TURKISH LIRA: 38.81 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.529
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.526% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.008 UP 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.005 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3305.55
SILVER AT 11;00: 33.17
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 5.34 PTS OR 0.06%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 86.29 pts or 0.30%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 31.93 pts or 0.40%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.80 pts or 0.11%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 28.78 or 0.07%
WTI Oil price 62.30 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 66.05 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.62 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 99/ 100
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.8-35 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.378 UP 7 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.958 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1327 UP 0.0039 OR 39 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3422 UP .0025 OR 25 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.8070 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.519
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.63 DOWN .684 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3851 DOWN 0.0058 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 58 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.41
Brent OIL: 64.78
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS pts to 4.588
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 11 PTS to 5.079%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT 4.004%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.413 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.994 UP 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.48 DOWN 0.50 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.83 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.75 UP 0 AND 88/100 roubles
GOLD $3289.45 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 33.07 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 816.80 OR 1.91%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 287.01 PTS OR 1.34%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.37 UP 2.24 PTS OR 12.60%
GLD: $ 305.82 UP 2.24 PTS OR 0,74%
SLV/ $30.51 UP 0.38 PTS OR OR 1.26%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 200.58 OR 0.77%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
Ugly Auction Triggers Bond Bloodbath; Big-Tech & Black Gold Dumped As Bitcoin & Bullion Jump
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 08:00 PM
‘Japanic’ attacks continued overnight in the JGB market as 20Y yields hit their highest since Oct 2000…
Source: Bloomberg
An ugly-ish 20Y UST auction (tailed but not crazy)…
Source: Bloomberg
…was the straw that broke the camel’s back of the last bit of confidence in the US bond market post-credit-downgrade today, sending 30Y yields soaring back above 5.00%, to its highest since Oct 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Swap Spreads are tumbling, flashing red alerts for bond market stability once again…
Source: Bloomberg
The long-bond is up 14bps since the USA downgrade (2Y yields are unchanged)…
Source: Bloomberg
Steepening the yield curve (2s30s)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and 3m10Y is now at its steepest since mid-Feb…
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in yields triggered an immediate selloff in stocks broadly, tanking all the majors notably below pre-USA-downgrade levels (with Small Caps the ugliest horse in the glue factory)…
As Mag7 stocks swung rapidly from solid green to red…
Source: Bloomberg
…not helped by AAPL’s fall on OpenAI buying Jony Ive’s AI company (AAPL is down 6 days in a row)…
For the second day in a row, retail dip-buyers were absent as ‘most shorted’ stocks refused to bounce…
Source: Bloomberg
Global Trade Policy Uncertainty tumbled to its lowest since mid-February today… as bond and equity uncertainty is rising for fiscal faux pas reasons…
Source: Bloomberg
As global trade policy uncertainty has fallen, so global macro data has surprised to the upside (significantly), now at its highest since May 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices also swung wildly in the last 24 hours, spiking over 3% on CNN headlines of imminent Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities; then plunging on a crude/gasoline inventory builds and then legging further down on the broad market’s derisking…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar tumbled back near YTD lows (back to Sept 2024lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back above $3300…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, even as gold gains, bitcoin is outperforming as the asset of choice to hedge the chaos…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged to a new record high today at $109,500 before falling back as stocks sank…
Source: Bloomberg
Do you BTFD on global liquidity ($180k by August)?
Source: Bloomberg
With yields blowing out, how long before The Fed is forced back in to QE? Deutsche Bank thinks soon…
BIG MORNING NEWS
BIG ATERNOON NEWS
Yields Soar, Stocks Plunge After Ugly 20Y Auction Sees Biggest Tail Of 2
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 01:30 PM
While it wasn’t quite as catastrophic as Japan’s 20Y auction earlier this week which saw the biggest tail since 1987, moments ago the US also sold 20Y paper in what was one of the worst auctions for this tenor since its launch 5 years ago.
Indeed, exactly 5 years since the first 20Year auction took place in May 2020, moments ago the US Treasury sold $16 billion in 20 Year paper in a dismal auction which sent yields spiking to session highs. The high yield was 5.047%, only the second 20Y auction to have a 5%+ yield, and only the second 20Y auction with a 5% coupon. The high yield was 24bps higher than April’s 4.810% and also tailed then 5.035% When Issued by 1.2bps, the biggest tail since December.
The bid to cover was also ugly, sliding to 2.46 from 2.63 in April, and the lowest since February.
The internals were less jarring, with Indirects awarded 69.02%, down from 70.7% last month but above the 67.2 last month. And with Direct taking down 14.1%, up from 12.3% last month, Dealers were left holding 16.9%, just lower from 17.0% last month.
Overall, it was an ugly (if hardly catastrophic) auction, certainly ugly enough to send yields to session highs of 4.58%, up 4bps from 4.54% before the auction, and the 30Y yield surged back above 5.00%…
… which in turn sparked an insta-rout in stocks, which are now tumbling to session lows.
USA DATA
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will “Massively” Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillilon In Debt
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 – 10:30 PM
Late last week, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released its preliminary score of the House Ways and Means Committee mark-up of the large budget reconciliation bill working its way through Congress, also known as Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” (BBB). And while the BBB is inching to passing through Congress – despite holdouts still remaining especially over the size of the SALT deduction – here is a snapshot of what is in the Bill, and how it will affect the US in the coming decade.
We start with a look at the fiscal policy focus of the BBB: Republicans’ slim majority and their use of the budget reconciliation process are key influences on the composition of the fiscal policy-related legislation. That said, extending the expiring provisions of the TCJA should have sufficient support within the party for enactment. Additional tax cuts, such as a domestic manufacturing credit and not taxing tips, will be facilitated by the political viability of sufficient “pay-fors”. This will likely include watered-down versions of proposed IRA tax credit phase-outs and cuts to social spending programs.
So how does one quantify the impact of the BBB: as a reminder, the Ways and Means Committee is responsible for writing the main tax code portion of the bill. Relative to the CBO’s January 2025 baseline, the JCT estimated the mark up to increase deficits by $3.8trn over the next 10 years, with most of the deficit increase ($2.2trn) occurring over the next five years. Indeed, breaking the bill down even further, of the $1.9trn of total savings identified in the mark up, the majority ($1.2trn) is realized over the back half of the 10-year budget window.
It is also notable that $915bn of savings stem from capping individual deductions for state and local taxes – a figure that will come down in the final legislation given the pushback from many Republicans in high tax states. As a reminder, under current law, upon expiry of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the cap on state on local deductions would go away leading to lower tax revenues (all else equal).
In addition, ~$560bn of savings are generated through terminations or earlier phasing out of clean energy-related tax credits and another $116bn from “remedies against unfair foreign taxes” – both measures highly dependent on projections with very wide error bands and/or yet to be defined enforcement mechanisms.
As DB’s Brett Ryan – who previously had made his own deficit claculations as a result of the “Big, Beautiful Bill”- writes, while the specific components of the additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what he had previously outlined, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with the top-line deficit assumptions provided by Deutsche Bank. However, one key difference was 2025, where Ryan had assumed more of the additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension would be made retroactive to 2025. The first table below shows DB’s prior estimates for deficit increases from tax and spending measures – excluding tariff revenue assumptions – compared to the latest JCT score of the Ways and Means mark up.
To be sure, the JCT scoring of the Ways and Means Committee mark-up does not capture key elements of the fiscal outlook – namely, estimates of tariff revenues and potential spending increases. Recall that the Ways and Means Committee is responsible for the tax writing portion of the bill and JCT only scores revenue-related measures. Indeed, CBO scoring will likely provide a more complete picture on tariff revenue and spending as the legislative process moves forward. DB anticipates $300bn of increased spending on border and defense to be front loaded over the next couple of years as well as tariff revenues of around ~250bn per year.
Risks are two-sided at this point. On the one hand, tariff revenues could be higher than currently penciled in, which assumes a ~15% tariff rate and only 2% import growth on average going forward. Conversely, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up can be best thought of as a floor in terms of deficit increases over the 10-year budget window. The final legislative product is likely to show even less savings once the House and Senate “reconcile” their differences.
In short, as DB concludes, “there appears to be no serious effort at reining in historically-elevated deficits which remain on track to exceed over 6% of GDP in the coming years.”
Extending on this, Morgan Stanley writes that the bank’s base case is that a politically viable fiscal package will be composed of tax cut extensions with incremental tax cuts mostly offset by “pay-fors”. As such, the key driver of projected deficit expansion in 2026 is slowing economic growth and cost growth embedded in current policy, and this fiscal package would add modestly to that baseline. Accounting for potential tariff revenue as a mitigant, the bank expects a 2026 deficit of 7.1% of GDP (vs. 6.7% in 2025), an increase of ~$310 billion year on year…
… however, the bank also lays out a low and high deficit case, where the former leads to a $400BN increase in the deficit, while the latter “only” $200BN.
Taking a look at the bigger picture, keep in mind that the bulk of the BBB is just extending on the tax cuts from Trump 1.0, which is why if the bill does not pass, it would be equivalent to a huge tax hike, one which would lead to a lower budget deficit, but lead to an immediate recession as it would translate into a massive fiscal headwind. As such, while the BBB does lead to higher deficits, if largely due to secondary drivers such as the record $1.2 trillion in gross interest expense and economic slowdown, the Big Beautiful Bill will not result in much policy stimulus in 2026. Meanwhile, as Morgan Stanley notes, even assuming continuation of current policy, deficits should increase as the economy slows. And speaking of growth slowing down, MS expects this to happen due to a rise in uncertainty, trade policy, and restrictive immigration, but really it is a modest normalization of the runaway spending of the last two years of the Biden admin. In any case, softer economic growth means lower revenues and a higher deficit. In fact, only a third of the deficit increase for 2026 is due to discretionary fiscal policy in excess of TCJA extension.
Finally, we look at the latest in-depth analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which estimates the BBB would add $3.3 trillion to the debt including interest or $5.2 trillion if its temporary provisions are made permanent. In part because new borrowing is front-loaded and offsets are back-loaded, the bill would add massively to near-term deficits.
Unlike Morgan Stanley, the CRFB estimates the House bill would boost the FY 2027 deficit – the deficit in the first year the policies would be fully in effect – substantially more, by nearly $600 billion, or 1.8% of GDP. That’s the net effect of roughly $770 billion of new borrowing and only $180 billion of offsets.
The deficits boost represents a one-third increase in total projected deficits from $1.7 to $2.3 trillion – and a near doubling of the primary (non-interest) deficit.
What is (perhaps not so) unique about the bill is that spending and tax cuts are front-loaded, while offsets are back-loaded, which means about 55% of the gross deficit increases – $2.8 trillion – would take place in the first half of the budget window. Meanwhile only 40% of the offsets – $970 billion – would accumulate over that period. As a result, 70% of the non-interest borrowing would occur in the first five years.
The tax cut and spending increase provisions are front-loaded due to the use of “arbitrary expirations” designed to limit reported costs. A number of provisions – including the enhanced Child Tax Credit and standard deduction, no tax on tips and overtime, 100 percent bonus depreciation for equipment, and new ‘MAGA accounts’ – are scheduled to expire in 2028 or 2029. The bill also relies on one-time appropriations for defense and immigration, which must be obligated by 2029. And finally, the bill includes a large number of retroactive provisions that provide a one-time windfall for activities already undertaken.
Meanwhile, many of the offsets don’t begin or ramp up until late in the budget window. Medicaid work requirements, for example, save $300 billion through 2034 but do not take effect until 2028. In addition, while some of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy credits are repealed at the end of 2025, the most expensive ones only begin phasing out in a few years with some restrictions taking effect sooner. And the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) state matching fund requirements do not start until 2028.
As a result of this mismatch and the sheer size of the bill’s deficit increases, the House bill would add to the deficit in every single year – with the possible exception of 2025 – even after the temporary provisions expire. But the largest deficit increases will take place very early in the budget window.
The impact of tariffs aside, this additional acceleration in near-term borrowing could stoke inflation and push up interest rates well above current levels. And it may continue in the future if Congress extends expiring provisions and perhaps cancel some of the offsets.
But what is most amazing, is that even this massive increase in the US deficit in the coming years is still a remarkable slowdown to the debt and deficit avalanche observed during the Biden administration, where like the president himself the economy was kept on life support thanks to a cocktail of debt, debt and more debt, as we first explained in the summer of 2023.
This is how Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett explained the “policy math” as one where monetary and fiscal policy stimulus in 2024 was best in USA, but in 2025 it’s better in the Rest-of-World:
- US Fed funds rate: 2024 = down 100bps, 2025 = unchanged.
- US government spending: past 12 months spending up huge $750bn (to $7.1tn), next 12 months spend down $50bn according to FY26 budget proposal.
- US tariffs: past 12 months import duties raised $85bn, next 12 months = $400-600bn (assuming 10-15% tariff rate), tariff taxation that falls on either foreign exporters, domestic importers, or domestic consumers.
- US tax cuts: next 12 months potentially start delivering $90bn per year in new tax cuts (rather than tax cut extensions); per CRFB current cost of “big, beautiful bill” next 10 years sees $0.2tn TCJA expansion of tax cuts + $0.7tn new tax cuts.
- US policy stimulus crudely flipping from meaty 100bps cuts & $750bn fiscal stimulus to >$250bn fiscal contraction (spending cuts & tariff hikes before tax cuts) & zero rate cuts…big reason why US economy slows in 2025
- Meanwhile, China is in big fiscal stimulus mood, and NATO military expenditures: defense spending in Europe set to rise $100bn per annum; per US proposal all other 31 NATO countries to raise military spend to 5% of GDP by 2032= $700bn extra defense spending by NATO ex. US (currently US accounts for $0.9tn or 69% of the NATO military budget covering 32 members
The final straw, of course, was last Friday’s Moody’s downgrade of the US Aaa rating – the final one – which took place on purpose just as the debate over the BBB hit a fever pitch. And speaking of Moody’s, earlier today we explained that the rating agency assumes the 2017 tax cuts are extended (unlike the last CBO semi-annual estimates), pushing debt and deficits much higher. The key Moody’s projections are:
- Interest + mandatory spending will hit 78% of total federal outlays by 2035 (from 73% in 2024)
- Deficits will rise from 6.4% to 9% of GDP by 2035
- Debt/GDP will hit 134% by 2035 (vs. 98% today)
And, as we also discussed earlier today in what America’s Debt Doomsday looks like, both U.S. debt and deficits are about to truly take off. As shown in the chart below, while the baseline CBO projections don’t include the tax cut extension, one of their alternative scenarios of including it pushes debt/GDP above 200% of GDP over the decades ahead. The chart hardly needs any further commentary.
For anyone “shocked” by this development, don’t be: back in February we warned readers, while praising the efforts of Elon Musk and DOGE, that while superficially cutting and streamlining government spending here and there will help, it will do nothing at all in the grand scheme of things to truly slash unsustainable government spending, which is dictated by Congress…
… and when it comes to the debt trajectory set there, nothing will ever stop this train, or as we put it in February:
What Musk is doing in trying to streamline the govt is admirable but ultimately it will be Congress that decides the endgame.
And there things are as status quo as always.
Three months later, a rather dejected Elon Musk observed the same thing when he said that the $2 trillion DOGE savings goal relies on the government, and that the “Doge team has done incredible work, but the magnitude of the savings is proportionate to the support we get from Congress and from the executive branch of the government in general.”
And saving money is, unfortunately, the very last thing on the uniparty’s mind.
More in the full notes from the CRFB, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, all available to pro subscribers.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON/
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 21, 2025 Issue 7497 | Independent View of the News |
| The must needed rest and retrenchment for equities appeared on Tuesday. We opined that this natural dynamic should occur this week, ahead of the Memorial Day Weekend and May performance gaming during the ensuing week. Bonds declined modestly; gold rallied sharply; Fangs declined moderately. ESMs opened modestly lower on Monday night but jumped higher at 19:10 ET. After hitting the daily high of 5993.50 at 19:34 ET. ESMs rolled over and then broke down at 20:48 ET. After an irregular A-B-C decline to 5955.25 at 2:10 ET, ESMs rallied to 5972.00 at 3:27 ET on buying, including the pump & dump, for the 3 ET European opening. The dump appeared but ESMs bottomed 11 minutes later (3:48 ET) at 5958.75. ESMs then traded sideways until they tried to rally when the 7 ET US repo market open. The rally was modest and ended quickly, ESMs fell to a daily low of 5951.00 at 9:45 ET. ESMs then traded within a 20-handle range until they broke lower at 14:20 ET. ESMs sank to a daily low of 5926.75 at 15:05 ET. The last-hour rally took ESMs to 5960.75 at 15:59 ET. Positive aspects of previous session The desperately needed equity retrenchment was modest, boring, and orderly until after 14:15 ET. Tuesday’s action suggests there are still beaucoup equity investors waiting to buy and few anxious sellers. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined modestly; gold rallied sharply; Fangs declined moderately. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much big-time trader and hedgie performance is under the weather in May? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5934.26 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5953.06; 5909.26 Biden’s Presidency Is a Scandal of Historic Proportions (with Obama as the majordomo) President Woodrow Wilson was at one point incapacitated during his final term in office, but that was at the tail end of his presidency. Wilson suffered a series of strokes after his highly energetic campaign to convince Americans to join the League of Nations. His wife and even some members of the media tried to cover it up, but ultimately the Democratic Party pulled the plug on his extremely brief flirtation with running for a third term… This situation with Biden was much, much worse, the cover-up far more extensive, and the consequences were far more potentially dire in the age of instant communication and weapons capable of quickly destroying all of human civilization… While the 46th president’s handlers, most likely at the behest of former President Barack Obama, led him around in an extended real-world version of “Weekend at Bernie’s,” the federal apparatus operated on its own… This was the first fully deep-state presidency. Biden was awarded by the Democratic Party with the nominal career-capping title as president, but the functions and even the decisions demanded of his office were clearly distributed to his subordinates and the federal leviathan… https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/05/19/historic-scandal-bidens-deep-state-presidency/ New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities — CNN Today – After a session of moderate retrenchment and respite for equities, retail traders and bulls will try to test the upside to see if the ‘nattering nabobs of negativism’ (to paraphrase Pat Buchanan) will be forced to cover shorts and chase performance. The First-Hour Indicator could be useful. A breach of the first hour high or low could provide an important clue as to the session’s direction. The S&P 500 Index low on Tuesday, 5909.26, was higher than Monday’s low (5895.69). These levels will be key support today. ESMs are -8.50; NQMs are -32.50; and USMs are-1/32 at 20:10 ET on Israel-Iran angst. Fed Speakers: Richmond Pres Barkin and Gov Bowman 12:15 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5569; 100-day MA: 5772; 150-day MA: 5825; 200-day MA: 5765 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,104; 100-day MA: 42,314; 150-day MA: 42,697; 200-day MA: 42,307 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5940.46 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5447.29 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5758.34 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5918.76 triggers a sell signal Now, there is a civil war within the US federal judiciary due Roberts and lame SCOTUS justices. 5th Circuit Court Justice James Ho excoriates the SCOTUS: I write to state my sincere concerns about how the district judge as well as the President and other officials have been treated in this case. I worry that the disrespect they have been shown will not inspire continued respect for the judiciary, without which we cannot long function.” Rather than commend the district court, however, the Supreme Court charged the district court with “inaction—not for 42 minutes but for 14 hours and 28 minutes.” Id. at _. This inaction was, according to the Court, tantamount to “refusing” to rule on the injunction. Id. at _. This charge is worth exploring. To get to 14 hours and 28 minutes (rather than 42 minutes), the Court was obviously starting the clock at 12:34 a.m., rather than 12:48 p.m. (when Petitioners told the district court for the first time that they wanted a ruling before the Government could respond). But starting the clock at 12:34 a.m. not only ignores the court’s express instructions respecting the Government’s right to respond. It also ignores the fact that the Court is starting the clock at—12:34 a.m. We seem to have forgotten that this is a district court—not a Denny’s. This is the first time I’ve ever heard anyone suggest that district judges have a duty to check their dockets at all hours of the night, just in case a party decides to file a motion… If this is not to become the norm, then we should admit that this is special treatment being afforded to certain favored litigants like members of Tren de Aragua—and we should stop pretending that Lady Justice is Blindfolded… One former President tried to shame members of the Supreme Court during a State of the Union address by disparaging a recent ruling. See Barack Obama, Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union, 1 Pub. Papers of the Presidents (Obama 2010) 75, 81 (Jan. 27, 2010). That same President also suggested that it would be illegitimate for the Supreme Court to declare an act of Congress unconstitutional—while a case challenging his signature legislative achievement was pending before the Court… Yet I doubt that any court would deny any of those Presidents the right to express their views in any pending case to which they are a party, before issuing any ruling. Our current President deserves the same respect… (A direct rebuke of John Robets, who slams criticism of justices!) https://reason.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-20-AAPR-v-Trump.pdf Roberts cowered and prostrated himself to Obama repeatedly. Why did BHO have on Robertds? Federal air marshals surveilled Trump Cabinet member Gabbard in 2024, Rand Paul says Kentucky senator says TSA watch list was used to track now-DNI Tulsi Gabbard in 2024 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/federal-air-marshals-surveilled-trump-cabinet-member-gabbard-2024-rand-paul-says @realDonaldTrump: Joe Biden was not for Open Borders… It was the people that knew he was cognitively impaired, and that took over the Autopen. They stole the Presidency of the United States, and put us in Great Danger. This is TREASON at the Highest Level! They did it to destroy our Country. The Joe Biden that everybody knew would never allow drug dealers, gang members, and the mentally insane to come into our Country totally unchecked and unvetted. All anyone has to do is look up his record. Something very severe should happen to these Treasonous Thugs that wanted to destroy our Country, but couldn’t, because I came along… Axios’ Alex Thompson: “A lot of these same Democrats that are now admitting that Joe Biden should not have run again… there’s a lot of tape & posts… attesting that he was up to this job.” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1924850534810312726 Jon Stewart knocks CNN for Tapper book “Forgetting about the fact how f‑‑‑ing weird it is that the news is selling you a book about news they should’ve told you was news a year ago for free,” Stewart said, “… it’s just fun … to watch them not only continue to push the book in light of this difficult news, but to actually frame this difficult news as perhaps even more of a reason to buy this book.” https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5309165-tapper-book-blowback-biden-mental/ Jon Stewart obliterates CNN for shilling Jake Tapper’s book amid Biden’s cancer diagnosis: (video) https://x.com/thedailyshow/status/1924661621785264343 @saras76: (Dem) Rep McIver is an unhinged psychopath. Undercover ICE body cam shows her screeching at federal agents, & physically assaulting them. “I touch whoever I want MF!… You will pay!” Then goes on TV and plays victim, like a typical dem. https://x.com/saras76/status/1921230714143445369 (Why do so many female Dem Reps have such potty mouths?) @RealAmVoice: “THE DAYS OF WOKE ARE OVER...THAT WOMAN WAS OUT OF CONTROL… She was shoving federal agents… The days of that crap are over in this country. We are going to have law and order.” – @potus on Rep. McIver https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/1924844572900761718 We are old enough to recall the many years in which Dems and the media incessantly invoked ‘no one is above the law’ to prosecute and persecute Trump and his associates. Now, Dem privilege is invoked. @libsoftiktok: Elon Musk just BODIED Bill Gates: “Who does Bill Gates think he is to make comments about the welfare of children, given that he was very close with Jeffrey Epstein? I wouldn’t want that guy to babysit my kids.” https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1924843321219813542 Charlie Kirk destroys the concept of ‘white privilege’ by noting Asian Americans, who were widely discriminated against, including internment and deportations for decades, are the richest and most educated US racial group. They rose above the discrimination by making ‘good choices’ for decades. https://x.com/DefiantLs/status/1924587117008572607 It’s that bad: 80% of French women want the army deployed into bad neighborhoods in French cities – Even a majority of far-left voters want troops on the streets of dangerous neighborhoods in French cities https://rmx.news/article/its-that-bad-80-of-french-women-want-the-army-deployed-into-bad-neighborhoods-in-french-cities/ Monica Lewinsky says former President Bill Clinton should’ve resigned from office after affair https://trib.al/n6XprzY @BuzzPatterson: I was there…. This was 100% Hillary at the time. Hillary knew all along and lied about the affair as well. As soon as Bill’s affair was revealed, Hillary threatened him and became the co-president. She ran the “crisis management” meetings at night in the residence. She told Bill to lie. She constructed the whole “vast right-wing conspiracy” bulls**t. Bill should’ve resigned but he hated Al Gore. It was, bar none, the longest 2-year assignment of my life… @BuzzPatterson: Tonight’s “Buzz’s Bedtime Story.” White House staffers behaving badly. In the summer of 1997, Bill Clinton visited Denmark. We landed on AF-1 in Copenhagen… to Kronborg Castle, for Shakespeare the “home of Hamlet.”… Beautiful, historic castle. I was put up in the Scottish Military suite. Beautiful room with a fully appointed spread of meats, cheeses, breads, fruit, and a full bar. All served, of course, with fine china and crystal. I made sure POTUS was down for the evening and went to bed. The next morning, the queen had a breakfast spread for Clinton and the staff. Again, first class. As we headed to the motorcade to leave for an event and the flight home, I was pulled aside by the Danish military aide. “Buzz, we have a problem. Your staff stole the china and crystal from their rooms. And took other things as well.” I was stunned and chagrined. I apologized profusely and told him I’d handle it. I talked with the White House chief of staff and told him what had happened. He shrugged his shoulders. No apology. Nobody held accountable. No repayment. Just another day in the Clinton White House. Biden spokesman Chris Meagher claims Joe had never been diagnosed with prostate cancer before Friday, and the last time he was screened for the disease was in 2014. Few are buying this! Renowned oncologist questions Joe Biden’s prostate cancer diagnosis timeline – and when treatments possibly started: ‘Doesn’t make any sense’ – A leading oncologist questioned the timeline of former President Biden’s prostate cancer diagnosis, particularly the claim by his doctors that his form of the disease was “hormone sensitive,” which they said allows for more effective treatment. Speaking on SiriusXM’s “The Megyn Kelly Show,” urology and prostate physician, Dr. David B. Samadi questioned how Biden’s doctors could know this unless the 82-year-old was already undergoing cancer treatment…. “If the PSA starts to go down, that’s when you know he’s hormone sensitive. I don’t know how they’d be able to give all of this information from diagnosis to treatment to all of that within one week. The story doesn’t make any sense.”… https://trib.al/uY3YFBy | |
SWAMP NEWS
ROBERT H
Rep. Comer: STAFFERS Behind Biden’s Autopen Scandal Have Been IDENTIFIED—Subpoenas Are Coming (VIDEO) – Def-Con News
Jail the lot for this and take away all pardons. Frankly, one might want to address the decisions made in all departments because Sleepy Joe likely made none.
END
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO
Baking a Gigantic Currency Crisis into the Cake – John Rubino
By Greg Hunter On May 21, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning concerning Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” making its way through Congress and Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The Big Beautiful Bill is going to explode the debt by $20 trillion in the next 10 years, and the credit downgrade has people like billionaire investment fund founder Ray Dalio worries about money printing to pay the $1.5 trillion in interest on federal debt. Rubino warns, “The story with Moody’s downgrade isn’t that they did it, that they moved the US from triple A (Aaa) to one notch below (Aa1). It’s kind of insane that a government with 125% of GDP has an investment rating at all. Right? They are clearly baking a gigantic currency crisis into the cake. Ray Dalio gets it right. The rating agencies excuse or explanation for why the US still has an investment grade credit rating is that a country with a printing press can never default because it can just print enough money out of thin air to pay interest on its bonds, and it can do that forever. So, it’s triple A credit, which does not make any sense at all because if you just print a lot of money out of thin air to pay your debts, then your currency goes down in value, and you are paying back your creditors with depreciating currency, which is a form of default. The credit rating agencies are only looking at one kind of default where we just stop paying. They are not looking at paying with cheaper currency year after year, and we stiff our creditors that way. That’s why you don’t want to own Treasury bonds. They are not going to stop paying interest, but the interest will not cover inflation going forward. So, you will have a net real loss until they just crater, and then you will have a massive capital loss.”
On top of that, interest rates have been rising and not falling. The 30-year mortgage rate is now just under 7% again. Rubino says, “We went back up to unsustainable interest rates really quickly. . . . The Fed has promised a couple of rate cuts this year, and for interest rates to go up while the Fed is inferring easing means we are risking losing control of the financial markets. If the Fed can’t control interest rates, we are monumentally screwed as a financial system. That’s kind of what we are headed for now. In the US, interest rates are going back up, but if you want to look at an extreme case, look at Japan. They don’t just have 30-year bonds, they have 40-year and 50-year bonds and those are cratering, which is to say the interest rates on those bonds are spiking. Long term Japanese bonds used to be 0%. Now, they are 3% and change. . . . That change is huge. So, Japan, the US, Europe, the UK and China, all of these big countries are basically making the same mistakes, and they are all headed in the same direction. We are in the early stage of a currency death spiral where interest rates start to go up and the government can’t control that and then their debt goes parabolic . . . and this goes until everything breaks down. We are in the third inning of that game, and the last couple of innings are going to be hair raising. There are going to be currency crises, which we have never seen in our lifetimes. . . . It will be fun times if you are a gold bug.”
Rubino thinks gold will go up in price way over $10,000 per ounce, and he also expects silver to take off too. Rubino says, “Silver is a great story because it is an industrial metal that is in deficit. Industrial uses are taking more silver off the markets than what they are producing, and that is going to lead to a shortage. Even if you don’t look at silver as a monetary metal, the industrial demand makes it a buy right now.”
Rubino does not think the US will be in a civil war, but Europe is going authoritarian, and civil war is most likely there if Russia does not blow them up first. Rubino thinks America will do better than Europe, but we will still have trouble, chaos and a financial reset to work through.
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 5.20.25.
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