GOLD CLOSED DOWN $15.50 TO $3,295.80
SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.27 TO $33.07
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3293.90
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $33.06
Bitcoin morning price:$111,770 UP 3525 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $107,570 up 7725 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $3.65 TO $1080.40
Palladium price; DOWN $12.20 TO $1017.60
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,567.39 DOWN 34.40 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2453.56 DOWN 20.17 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,566.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MAY 6/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2919.84 DOWN 9.91 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 3018.80 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)
DONATE
MONTH TO DATE: 23,650
JPMORGAN STOPPED 217/899
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024: 899 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 89,900 OZ or 2,7965 TONNES
total notices so far: 24,549 contracts for 2,454,900 OR 76.357 tonnes)
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES:111 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 555,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 14,796 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 73.980 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $15.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.88 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.27 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.875 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4303 CONTRACTS TO 145,734 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.35 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4953 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 650 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE AS THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 518 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A 650 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG 518 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THURSDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4953 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.35.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A STRONG 518 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.35) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH
WE HAD A 650 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 210 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 1.050 MILLLION OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ:
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 76.955 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 1,050,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 89.145 MILLION OZ./
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS COMEX OI GAIN+// A 650 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 518 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 93 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 DAYS, total 4134 contracts: OR 20.670 MILLION OZ (258 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 20.67 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 20.67 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4303 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.35 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 650 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 650 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND NOW MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 76.215 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 1.05 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 89.145 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (518 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (TUESDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 111 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 555,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5340 OI CONTRACTS TO 453,340 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 473 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (5340 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $28.75 IN PRICE// WEDNESDAY///.
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES STANDING!
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
AND NOW MAY: SUMMARY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ADDED
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 76,215 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 86.546 TONNES OF GOLD
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $28.75 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7640 OI CONTRACTS (23.76 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE DURING THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF MAY, AND THROUGHOUT EACH AND EVERY DAY MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MAY CONTRACT MONTH….. A MONSTROUS 86.546 TONNES DESPITE IT BEING AN OFF MONTH. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2300 CONTRACT:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 453,340/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 145,754 CONTRACTS!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7640 CONTRACTS WITH 5340 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2300 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7640 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1349 CONTRACTS ISSUED.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2300 CONTRACT) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 5340 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7640 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 86.546 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 2.7402 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR MAY 13 , 15TH AND 19TH ISSUANCE OF 9.589 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 86.546 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT ADVANCES TO: 86.546 TONNES OF GOLD.(INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE)
.
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A $28.75 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD OUR STRONG GAIN OF 8113 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (2300 CONTRACTS)/// FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1349 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 21,055 CONTRACTS OR 2,105,500 OZ OR 65.489 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1315 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 65.489 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 65.489 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.642% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 65.489 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4303 CONTRACTS OI TO 145,754 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 650 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4,396 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4953 CONTRACTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.35 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 24.765 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.35 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.38 PTS OR 0.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 317,66 PTS OR 1.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 313,11 PTS OR 0.84% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.47%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.2067 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2041/ Oil DOWN TO 60.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 64.24 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2067 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2041 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.77 PTS OR 0.32%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 152.15 PTS OR 0.64%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 37.69 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.61%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.2183 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2060/ Oil UP TO 62.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.32 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2060 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2060 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5340 CONTRACTS TO 453,340 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.75 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2300 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY REMAINS AT 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE GETTING QUITE ANTSY OF GETTING ITS GOLD BACK.
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST FOUR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK
DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7640 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS FAIR AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1349 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE (FRIDAY/MAY 16) AT 9.978TONNES, THIS MONTH WE HAVE RECORDED THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX GOLD HISTORY AT 9.978 TONNES!!! TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP IS A HUGE .6780 TONNES.
THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 86.546 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 2.7402 TONNES AND TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK: 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK!)//
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING: 86.546 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 222 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2300 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /JUNE 2300 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2300 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED, 1349 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY:
INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.4634 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 7 (A RECORD) + ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP MAY 9 OF 0.534 TONNES + MAY 12 AT .5132 TONNES _ MAY 13; QUEUE JUMP OF 2.444 TONNES AND THEN MAY 14 RECORD 6.8800 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN (MAY 15) RECORD OF 9.978 TONNES AND THEN FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 108,900 OZ/3.387 TONNES (MAY 16) MONDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5847 + TUESDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF .6780 TONNES + YESTERAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF .9415 AND THEN TODAY;S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.7402 TONNES +EXCHANGE FOR RISK//9.591 TONNES = 86.546 TONNES
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: STANDING NOW 76.955 TONNES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH) + 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK EQUALS 86.546 TONNES!!
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $28.40/ /)AND THEY WERE A UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MONTH; FINAL GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// MAY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 25.23 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/APRIL 30. WE HAD A STRONG 881 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP THURSDAY, FOR 88,100 OZ OR 2.7402 TONNES. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US SIMPLE MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 76.955 TONNES OF GOLD. TO WHICH WE ADD (MAY 13 MAY 15.MAY 19) EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 9.591 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 86.546 TONNES
THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 86.546 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $28.75
WE HAD A SMALL 214 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7640 CONTRACTS OR 764,000 0Z (23.76 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 287,807. contracts: fair volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
MAY
// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
MAY 22
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | . withdrawals: 3 3 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks 90,683.472 oz ii) Out of Malca 37,616.67 oz (1170 kilobars) iii) Out of Manfra: 29,705.379 oz (924 kilobars) total weight withdrawn: 158,005.521 oz or 4.91 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 899 notice(s) 89900 OZ 0.8367 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 192 contracts 19,200 OZ 0.5972 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 24,549 notices 2,454,900 oz 76.357 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 0 customer entries
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: 3
3 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks 90,683.472 oz
ii) Out of Malca 37,616.67 oz (1170 kilobars)
iii) Out of Manfra: 29,705.379 oz (924 kilobars)
total weight withdrawn: 158,005.521 oz or 4.91 tonnes
adjustments: 2//customer to dealer
a) Brinks 32,118.849 oz (999 kilobars)
b) HSBC 679,589.677 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 1091 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 612 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 269 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 304 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE WITNESS A HUGE 88,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP FOR 2.7402 TONNES. THIS FOLLOWS LAST WEEK’S (MAY 15) RECORD BREAKING 9.987 TONNES. FOR THE PAST 8 DAYS WE HAVE RECORDED 27.5614 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS. ALL OF THIS IS PHYSICAL GOLD AND ALL GOING TO CENTRAL BANKS. LONDON HAS RECORDED OVER 30 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVING ITS SHORES THIS MONTH
JUNE LOST ONLY 15,916 CONTRACTS TO 160,928 JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH. THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS LOOKING AT JUNE OI.WE HAVE 7 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE OUR BIG FIRST DAY NOTICE FRIDAY MAY 30.
JULY GAINED 478 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5315
We had 899 contracts filed for today representing 89900 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 20 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 899 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 217 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,549 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1091 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (899 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,474,100 OZ OR 76.955 TONNES to which we add 9.591 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk//new totals 86.546 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (24,549 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (1091 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (899 x 100 oz) which equals 2,474100 OZ OR 76.955 TONNES + 9.591 tonnes = 86.546 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 86.546 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,216,270.991 oz 68.9353 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,793,530.209 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 22,037,365.001: or 685.454 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,756,165.208 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,821,110 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 616.518tonnes //
SILVER/COMEX
// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
MAY 22
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 withdrawal entries i) Out of Delaware 5045.300 oz ii) Out of JPMorgan 1,160,213.700 oz iii) Out of Loomis 1,200,214.270 oz iv) Out of Manfra: 299,775.850 oz v) Out of Stonex: 16,144.240 oz total weight withdrawal 3,150,903.320 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 deposit entries//customer side/eligible 2 DEPOSIT ENTRIES i) Into HSBC 598,970.01 oz ii) Into Int.Delaware 458,038.827 oz total deposit: 1,057,017.877 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 111 CONTRACT(S) (555,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 447 contract (2.236 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 14,796 Contracts (73.980 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
0 deposits into dealer accounts
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2 deposit entries//customer side/eligible
2 DEPOSIT ENTRIES
i) Into HSBC 598,970.01 oz
ii) Into Int.Delaware 458,038.827 oz
total deposit: 1,057,017.877 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
5 withdrawal entries
i) Out of Delaware 5045.300 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan 1,160,213.700 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 1,200,214.270 oz
iv) Out of Manfra: 299,775.850 oz
v) Out of Stonex: 16,144.240 oz
total weight withdrawal 3,150,903.320 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 216.023million oz/498.504 oz million or 43.33%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 168.457 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 498.504Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 558 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 137 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 73 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 210 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP OF 1,050,000 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE. I MUST REPORT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR TODAY. THUS THE NEW TOTAL REMAINS AT TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 63 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2606 CONTRACTS. JUNE OI REFUSES TO LIQUIDATE
WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE OVER 12 MILLION OZ STAND FOR JUNE/AN OFF MONTH
AS IT IS NOW THE FRONT MONTH. WE HAVE 5 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, FRIDAY MAY 30.
JULY GAINED 3361 CONTRACTS UP TO 111,871
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 111 or 0.555 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 63,831 FAIR//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,796 X5,000 oz = 73.980 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (558) AND the number of notices served upon today (111 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (14,796) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(558) minus number of notices served upon today (111)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 76.215 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 89.145 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 89.145 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 168.457million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.88 TONNES
MAY 21 WITH GOLD UP $28.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.60 TONNES
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.03 TONNES
MAY 19 WITH GOLD UP $46.65 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 919.88 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.091 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.65/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.784 MILLION OZ
MAY 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.17/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 451.875 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
MATHEW PIEPENBERG
2.ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Kamikaze bonds
Banzai! Japanese Government Bond holders cry as their investments dive into oblivion and them with it
| Alasdair MacleodMay 22∙Paid |
If we could pin a bond market problem on just one event, it would be so much easier to explain it. Doubtless, poor demand for a 20-year JGB auction on Tuesday was a contributing factor. And the Prime Minister pointing out in parliament that Japan’s debt problem is worse than Greece’s was at the time of its crisis probably didn’t help.
But more widely, investors in long-dated bonds everywhere are becoming rarer at a time when governments are trying to borrow increasing amounts in their own currencies.
This is why market indigestion is not restricted to JGBs. In the case of the 40-year JGB, if you had bought it at par in 2020, today it would mark-to-market at only 29% of that. In only five years these losses are discouraging for buyers, and potentially systemically destabilising. It is unsurprising that the appetite for long-date bonds has all but vanished.
Here in the UK, we tend to ignore Japan because it is on the other side of the world and of a different culture. And in the US, investors understandably focus on dollar-denominated bonds to the exclusion of others. But the laws of debt apply to Japan just as they do to the Anglo-Saxons. And Japan has a debt-to-GDP estimated at over 230%. Her debt problem is now exposed to a declining GDP based on a 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025, followed by US tariff disruption to her trade outlook.
In other words, Japan is now in the jaws of a classic debt trap, whereby her debt is growing faster than the tax base that ultimately secures it.
Two things have worked together so far to save the Japanese government from the laws of markets. Mrs. Watanabe’s propensity to save has allowed the BOJ to fund Japan’s debt with minimal inflationary consequences at the CPI level — aided as well as from the normal statistical skulduggery of statistical departments. But despite statistical method, CPI inflation is now running at about 3.6%, which besides time-value leaves an investor in long-dated JGBs with no net return. In short, despite the collapse in bond prices, the long end still looks overvalued.
We can only guess at the consequences of a bond market crisis for Japanese banks, investors, and traders. But it is worth noting that the yen has been the basis for a global carry trade buying into bond markets in other currencies — particularly US Treasuries. However, with over $1 trillion in US Treasuries, the BOJ has been effectively doing its own carry trade, funding its UST position at 0.5% for an uplift in yield.
It is through bond markets being interlinked in this and other ways that the JGB crisis could play a major part in undermining US T-bonds, and like a tsunami wash up others as well. And it’s not helpful that Trump’s “big, beautiful spending bill” is now up before the House of Representatives.
One thing is clear: the BOJ won’t be buying any more US Treasuries and is very unlikely to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds. Long-dated USTs are looking for an excuse to…
Well, just look at the chart below
.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4/On LFTV, Andrew Maguire LIVE FROM THE VAULT 223
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//RICE
persistent inflation is causing a huge rise in the price of rice
Simon White
‘The Price Is Rice’ – JGB Liquidity Crisis Is A Global Warning
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 11:55 AM
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Liquidity in the JGB market is deteriorating as heightened inflation expectations become entrenched, while disorderly rises in Japanese bond yields leave US and global assets exposed to drops in price.
Japan has a problem. Its long-bond yields have climbed sharply this week, reaching new highs in 30 and 40-year issues, with liquidity in the JGB market worsening significantly.
Anecdotally, JGB trading desks talk of challenging conditions. The tail at a 20-year auction this week, ie the gap between the average and lowest-accepted prices, was the longest since 1987.
Depleting liquidity is corroborated by Bloomberg’s index for Japanese bonds, which looks at how far JGBs trade from an idealized yield curve. The indicator is just below the level it reached after Lehman went bust in 2008, this time accompanied by a bear steepening of the yield curve.
The BOJ does not see the need for intervention, despite its own survey on bond-market functioning, released this week, showing a decline in every single sub-category in the latest quarter, with the overall measure of bond-market health only a hair’s breadth above its 10-year, and series, lows.
The proximate causes given for the upheaval include anticipation of BOJ debt sales and Japan’s eye-watering fiscal position of 240% of government debt to GDP, with worries of further deterioration if a mooted consumption tax cut is implemented.
But the elephant in the room is inflation. It has remained persistently elevated since the pandemic. Even more alarmingly, though, is the acceleration to new highs of inflation expectations of businesses and consumers — as also seen in the US — risking an unanchored rise in prices if expectations begin to drive CPI higher.
Household inflation expectations from the BOJ’s survey of the general public show little sign of halting their ascent. One-year inflation expectations are at 12%, while the average price rise expected over the next five years is almost 10%.
The estimates don’t need to be accurate for there to be a problem. The persistence of elevated expectations is enough to entrench the perception that prices are rising relentlessly. That can then lead to consumers and businesses bringing forward consumption (nominal private consumption growth is currently at 30-year highs), saturating supply and boosting prices, leading to another rise in inflation expectations. Wash, rinse and repeat.
The Cabinet Office’s consumer survey shows that the net percentage of respondents expecting higher inflation next year has been moored for the last three years at record levels.
Businesses, too, see a daunting inflation outlook, with five-year expectations from the Tankan survey at a series high of over 5% a year, and almost all industry types in the survey anticipating that prices will keep rising.
We need only look at the chart of rice prices to get a sense Japan might have an issue with runaway inflation. If you were wishful for consumers to cool their expectations of future price growth, then the surging cost of one of the most frequently bought items is exactly what you wouldn’t want to see.
Headline CPI is currently stuck near 30-year highs, with Japan now having the highest inflation rate of the G10 countries, at 3.6%. The BOJ describes the rise in medium-to-longer term inflation expectations as “moderate.” While that’s technically true, their absolute level of almost 10% on average over the next five years is anything but.
The bank also terms the rise in inflation expectations as “adaptive.” That may have been the case in 2022/23 when higher CPI led the rise in expectations. But with the latter now seemingly marooned at double-digit levels, adaptive could soon turn into unanchored.
That would obviously be a problem for bonds, leaching yet more liquidity from a market already beginning to show signs of a disorderly rise in yields.
Almost all of the increase in longer-term JGB yields has been driven by term premium (effectively curve steepening) as the BOJ remains complacent on inflation and is currently contemplating little in the way of further rate hikes. The rise in term premium is the extra compensation JGB buyers are demanding for liquidity, fiscal, and inflation risks.
That’s not all. Liquidity risks in the JGB market are amplified because of its extremely lopsided ownership structure: the BOJ owns more than half the stock of JGBs outstanding, keeping them out of circulation. Foreigners have been reducing their (already modest) exposure to Japanese government debt since the BOJ became more than half of the market.
The Bank of Japan’s colossus of a balance sheet represents one of the biggest threats to financial stability in Japan and around the world. A rise in yields represents a far from trivial loss to the BOJ’s $4 trillion of JGBs, accounting for almost 80% of its balance sheet.
No problem, you might say, for a central bank with potentially limitless capital. But the market is not stupid: that loss will eventually be patched over with freshly printed, inflation-stoking money, leading to more JGB selling. In extremis, the BOJ ends up owning the whole JGB market, and the yen becomes the primary mechanism of adjustment.
As domestic investors lose money and financial risks rise, the likelihood is that some of Japan’s huge net creditor position with the rest of the world is repatriated, leading to asset declines worldwide, especially in the US and Europe.
The majority of investors and consumers in Japan have never had to contend with inflation much above 1% for most of their adult lives. But belatedly or not, when they move to preserve their purchasing power the impact on inflation and yields — amplified by the BOJ’s duration-laden balance sheet – has the potential to be systemic. And it won’t just be Japan’s problem.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.38 PTS OR 0.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 317,66 PTS OR 1.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 313,11 PTS OR 0.84% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.47%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.2067 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2041/ Oil DOWN TO 60.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 64.24 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.2067 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP 7.2041 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2067 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2041 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.38 PTS OR 0.22%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 317.66 PTS OR 1.33%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 37.60 PTS OR 0.10%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.50// EURO FALLS TO 1.1313 DOWN 18 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.576//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.09…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6536/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.665 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.274%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.387
3j Gold at $3323.00. Silver at: 33.43 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 50 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.24
3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.10// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.517% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8254 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9345 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.585 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.094 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.999 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.84
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.8235 UP 12 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.386 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.979 DOWN 2 PTS
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures, Treasuries Slide After “Big, Beautiful Bill” Passes
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 08:41 AM
US stocks and treasuries sold off after President Trump’s signature tax bill passed the House by the narrowest of margins (214-215), sparking fears that the surging deficit – already at a nosebleed 6.5% of GDP – necessary to fund the bill will spark even higher rates at a time when foreign buyers are boycotting US Treasury purchases. As of 8:00am, S&P futures slumped by 0.5%, trading near session lows and reversing an earlier gain of about 0.3%. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.4%. Treasuries also slumped, extending days of losses in which the 30-year yield hit the highest since 2023: the 10Y was trading at session highs of 4.62%. The dollar ended a three-day losing run while Bitcoin pushed further into record territory. Commodities are weaker across all 3 complexes: oil slumped again after BBG reported that OPEC+ is considering another production hike at the June 1 meeting. SCMP reports that Mexico pledges neutrality between US/China in the Trade War; this follows a similar announcement from Indonesia last month. Today’s macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, weekly claims, existing home sales, and regional Fed activity indicators.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Alphabet +1.2%, Nvidia +0.5%, Amazon +0.5%, Tesla -0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.02%, Apple -0.1%). Solar stocks sink as US House Republicans’ new version of the tax and spending bill accelerates the end of incentives for clean electricity production (Sunrun -34%, Array Technologies -14%, First Solar -6%). Crypto-linked stocks gained in premarket trading after Bitcoin hit an all-time high. The world’s largest cryptocurrency reached a record price of $111,878 on Thursday amid growing optimism around the US stablecoin bill (Galaxy Digital (GLXY) +5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +3%, Mara Holdings (MARA) +3%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) soars 30% after the retailer of aftermarket auto components reaffirmed its comparable sales forecast for the full year.
- Analog Devices (ADI) rises 2% after the chipmaker reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Delcath Systems (DCTH) rises 2% after the specialty pharmaceutical and medical devices company issued full year 2025 guidance and announced a plan to enter into a National Medicaid Drug Rebate Agreement to expand patient access.
- Nike (NKE) shares rose in premarket trading as the company returns to Amazon.com’s online store after leaving it in 2019.
- Humana (HUM) falls 5% and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slips 2% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it will embark on a “significant expansion” of its auditing efforts for Medicare Advantage plans.
- LiveRamp (RAMP) climbs 10% after the marketing technology company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
- Lumen Technologies (LUMN) advances 12% after AT&T agreed to buy the company’s consumer fiber operations for $5.75 billion, expanding its fast broadband service in major cities like Denver and Las Vegas.
- Manchester United (MANU) drops 5% after the English football club lost the high-stakes Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur in Bilbao, Spain last night.
- Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) surges 175% after the semiconductor company said Nvidia picked it to collaborate on data center power infrastructure.
- Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) falls 4% after the oil and gas company priced its stock offering.
- Snowflake (SNOW) gains 9% after the software developer forecast product revenue for the second quarter above the average analyst estimate.
- Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 18% after the apparel retailer reported net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Just before 7am ET, after an all night session in the House, US lawmakers passed Trump’s “big, beautiful bill”, a sprawling multi-trillion dollar package that would avert a year-end tax increase at the expense of adding to the US debt burden. The move comes after a downgrade by Moody’s Ratings thrust concerns over the ballooning deficit into the spotlight. This has shown up in Treasuries, sapping sentiment after an equity rebound put the S&P 500 on the cusp of a bull market. Goldman calculated the yield at which stocks would crack: the bank notes that on May 1st, 10yr yield was 4.12%…we just touched 4.6% yesterday after the weak 20yr auction. At what level do yields start to put real pressure on the stock market? The easy big round number is 10yr @ 5%. The more nuanced answer is >4.7% (before the end of May) as velocity of move in rates matters much more than absolute levels (in regards to impacting stocks). When 10yr yield has moved higher by 2SD (60bps) within a one month period the stock market comes under pressure.
“Bond vigilantes are back,” Beata Manthey, a strategist at Citigroup Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “The market is worried about debt sustainability. It’s not very helpful, given how strong a rebound we’ve been seeing in equity markets.”
Later on Thursday, S&P Global will issue its preliminary May survey of manufacturing and service providers. Based on economists’ projections, industrial weakness probably continued while growth in services activity may have picked up slightly. Weekly jobless claims data is also due.
Meanwhile, the doom and gloom from Jamie Dimon continued, after the JPMorgan CEO said he can’t rule out the US economy will fall into stagflation as the country faces huge risks from both geopolitics, deficits and price pressures. “I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot,” Dimon told Bloomberg TV in Shanghai.
With everything else being sold, traders turned to non-fiat alternatives: Bitcoin surpassed $111,000 for the first time with traders increasingly bullish on the prospects of the cryptocurrency., gold traded back over $3,300.
“Bitcoin, and the crypto market in general, have largely decoupled from equities over the last few days,” said Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund DACM. “Bitcoin continues to benefit from its market position as a non-system, store of value.”
European stocks fall as worries over rising bond yields curbed investor appetite for risky assets. The Estoxx index slumped 1%, with the yield-sensitive technology sector is among the biggest laggards. Among individual stocks, EasyJet Plc falls after the low-cost airline reported bigger-than-expected losses, while Johnson Matthey rises on a major sale of its technology business. Here are some of the biggest movers:
- Johnson Matthey shares jump as much as 34%, the most in over three years, after the company announced the sale of its catalyst technology business at an enterprise value of £1.8 billion, with the bulk of proceeds to be returned to shareholders.
- Mitchells & Butlers gains as much as 2.2% after the pub and restaurant operator delivers what analysts view as a strong update, with full-year operating profit expected to be at the top end of current consensus.
- Grenergy Renovables gains as much as 8%, hitting a new record high. RBC Capital says the Spanish renewables company has achieved strong growth in the first quarter, supported by gains of the Atacama storage project.
- Gimv gains as much as 8.9%, the most since March 2020, after the investment company posts what KBC Securities describes as another record year
- Stora Enso gains as much as 7% to its highest since March 20 after the Finnish forest and paper company said it will divest around 175,000 hectares of forest land in Sweden for a total value of €900 million.
- EasyJet shares fall as much as 6.1% after the travel firm reported a loss in the first half.
- BT shares drop as much as 5.3% after the telecom company reported a decline of 243,000 Openreach broadband lines in the quarter ended March, a sign of heightened competition among UK’s fiber builders.
- British Land shares drop as much as 7.1% in their worst one-day loss in two years, after the UK property firm’s unchanged guidance and forecast for flat 2026 earnings per share tempered a recent rally in the stock.
- Freenet shares sink as much as 16%, the most since May 2022, after the mobile communications service provider reported Ebitda for the first quarter that missed estimates.
- Elior drops as much as 5.3% following a mixed first-half report from the commercial catering company.
- Intertek shares drop as much as 3% after the inspection services provider reported disappointing organic growth for the first four months of the year.
- MPC Container Ships falls as much as 17%, the most since 2021, after the Norwegian shipping firm presented its latest earnings and a new dividend policy.
Asian equities dropped the most in two weeks, driven by losses in technology stocks after Treasury yields jumped overnight on concerns about the US budget deficit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%, the biggest decline since May 8, with Alibaba, TSMC and Samsung contributing the most to the losses. South Korea’s Kospi retreated over 1%, while benchmark gauges in Hong Kong, Japan and India also lost ground. Philippine stocks weakened after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered his cabinet to resign.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded to rise 0.1% after three straight days of losses. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.131 after data showed private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank in May. USD/JPY slumped as much as 0.6% to 142.81, the lowest level in two weeks, before paring the move to trade 0.2% lower. Despite the latest drop, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remains on track to cap a sixth straight week of gains. JPMorgan Chase is committed to long-term investment in China, despite tensions with the US, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
In rates, the yield for 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.62% on Thursday. The worry in debt markets is that the tax bill would add trillions of dollars to an already bulging deficit at a time when investors’ appetite is US assets is slumping. The 30-year yield reaching new multimonth highs of 5.15% while short-end tenors richen, pivoting around a little-changed 7-year sector. 5s30s spread near 97bp is widest since May 1. European sovereign curves are also steeper. The Treasury will sell $18 billion of 10-year TIPS in a reopening at 1pm New York; Wednesday’s 20-year new-issue auction tailed by about 1bp, spurring long-end yields higher. Focal points include House Republicans narrowly passing President Trump’s tax bill shortly before 7am, PMI and jobless claims data, a 10-year TIPS auction and comments by NY Fed President Williams.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data includes April Chicago Fed national activity index and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), May preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), April existing home sales (10am) and May Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed President Barkin (8am) and Williams (2pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.5%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4%,
- Stoxx Europe 600 -1%
- DAX -0.8%, CAC 40 -1%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.58%
- VIX -0.4 points at 20.49
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1220.46
- euro -0.3% at $1.1297
- WTI crude -1.5% at $60.66/barrel
Top Overnight News
- A man fatally shot two Israeli Embassy staff members late Wednesday near a Jewish museum in downtown Washington. WSJ
- Scott Bessent and his Japanese counterpart Katsunobu Kato confirmed existing currency views and didn’t discuss FX levels when they met in Canada. BBG
- On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the Ukraine war because he thinks he is winning. This runs counter to what Trump has often said publicly, that he believes Putin genuinely wants peace. WSJ
- BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday he saw no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market to stem recent sharp rises in super-long yields, describing the moves as “rapid but not abnormal.” Noguchi also said the central bank must pause its interest rate hikes for the time being until there is more clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. RTRS
- Israel is making preparations to “swiftly” strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if talks between Washington and Tehran collapse without a deal. Axios
- OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another super-sized production increase at their meeting June 1, delegates said. That would be the third straight month of adding more barrels to the market. Oil declined. BBG
- Eurozone flash PMIs for May were mixed, with modest upside on manufacturing (49.4, up from 49 in Apr and above the Street’s 49.2 forecast) and slight downside on services (48.9, down from 50.1 in Apr and below the Street’s 50.5 forecast), while inflation in aggregate cooled (driven by manufacturing). S&P
- US/EU trade talks – Brussels is offering to extend an existing shellfish trade deal w/the US that expires on 7/31 as an inducement to striking a broader agreement around tariffs. FT
- Lutnick says he predicts a slew of trade deals by the middle of the summer and doesn’t anticipate tariffs fueling higher prices in the US. Axios
- BofA Institute Total Card Spending (Week to 17th May) -0.7% (vs +1.0% average in April)
- US President Trump posted “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, among others, and will be making a decision in the near future.”
Trade/Tariffs
- EU is open to extending lobster deal as part of a package to remove tariffs imposed by US President Trump, according to FT.
- South African President Ramaphosa said following a meeting with US President Trump that they had discussions on trade and there will continue to be engagement on tariffs. It was also reported that South Africa’s Trade Minister said they submitted a proposal regarding a framework agreement with the US and had some US feedback, while they then resubmitted a revised document with the proposal about a trade agreement.
- Canada’s Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs LeBlanc is to visit Washington DC to meet with Trump admin officials, while it was also reported that Canada’s Finance Minister Champagne said he will discuss Canada’s role as the largest customer for US exports in meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he told Bessent that US tariffs are regrettable and stated tariffs are not an appropriate means to correct macroeconomic imbalances that are behind trade imbalances, while Kato noted that he did not directly discuss Japan’s US Treasury holdings in the meeting with Bessent.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato discussed global security and bilateral trade and currency issues on the sidelines of the G7, while they reaffirmed shared belief that exchange rates should be market-determined and reaffirmed USD/JPY exchange rate currently reflects fundamentals.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were on the back foot following the sell-off on Wall St where stocks, treasuries and the dollar were pressured amid deficit concerns and a weak 20-year auction. ASX 200 retreated with energy and tech front-running the declines, although continued strength in gold producers atoned for some of the losses. Nikkei 225 gapped beneath the 37,000 level amid a firmer currency and proceeded in a somewhat choppy fashion as participants also digested data releases, including a surprise surge in Japanese Machinery Orders and mixed PMI figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment in the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts and after recent earnings results failed to inspire, while the mainland initially showed resilience in early trade before succumbing to the broad risk-off mood.
Top Asian News
- PBoC to sell CNY 500bln of one year medium term lending facility loans on Friday.
- RBA’s Hauser, on recent trip to China, says found confidence Beijing would do what was needed to sustain growth; Australian exporters upbeat about resilience of China demand Found striking confidence that China going into trade war with strong hand. China organisations expected large share of economic costs of tariffs would fall on US. China contacts expressed a determination not to cushion those costs. Found little expectation that yuan would be devalued to insulate US from tariffs. Possible could see more intense competition at home from Chinese firms discounting. Unclear how big an impact given limited overlap between Chinese and Australian output.
- BoJ’s Noguchi says they do not look at the size of JGB buying from the standpoint of monetary policy. In tapering, market predictability and flexibility is the most important. Does not think it is appropriate to recklessly intervene to correct bond yield moves. Should not move on rates when there is a lack of clarity on economic outlook.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa held unofficial phone talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent before Wednesday, according to TV Tokyo; Bessent reportedly expressed reluctance to meet Akazawa this week; the two will meet next week instead.
- China’s MOFCOM says China firmly opposes US export controls on Chinese AI chips.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) opened lower across the board, in a continuation of the pressure seen on Wall St/APAC trade and have traded at subdued levels throughout the morning. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only Basic Resources and Chemicals marginally holding in positive territory. Consumer Products is underperforming after LVMH’s (-1.5%) cautious comments on the Luxury sector. Chemicals names are faring better vs peers, with Bayer (+1.7%) doing much of the heavy lifting. The Co. benefits from a WSJ report which suggests the US HHS Secretary’s move will “go easier than expected on pesticides in farming”.
Top European News
- ECB’s Nagel sees progress on the US tariff dispute but more hurdles to overcome and noted the US was showing a better understanding of Europe’s point of view, while he is a little more confident than perhaps was a few days ago. Nagel stated that German economic growth in Q1 could surprise on the upside but will get worse in Q2 and could see 1% plus growth in 2026.
- ECB’s Vujcic says “Euro area growth is positive but low; inflation is slowly converging to 2% target; expect to get close to 2% target at end-2025” Expect to reach 2% target in early 2026.
- IMF forecasts French growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026; says France needs fiscal effort of 1.1% of GDP in 2026, followed by an average of about 0.9% over the medium term; Says France needs credible and well-designed package of measures to rein in deficit over time.
- EU Parliament backs very high tariffs on nitrogen-based fertilisers and farm produce from Russia and Belarus.
Eurozone PMIs
- EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.4); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 48.9 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.1); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.0)
- French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 48.0 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 47.8); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 47.4 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.3); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 49.5 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.7)
- German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 48.6 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.1); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 47.2 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.0); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.4)
- UK Flash Composite PMI (May) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 48.5); Flash Services PMI (May) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.0); Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) 45.1 vs. Exp. 46.0 (Prev. 45.4)
FX
- USD is currently relatively steady and mixed vs. peers following three consecutive sessions of losses. With trade updates lacking, focus is currently on the fiscal front as markets await the outcome of the House vote on President Trump’s tax bill. If the bill passes this hurdle, attention from an FX perspective will be on how back-end US rates react to the price tag and impact on the deficit. This week’s data highlights are presented today via weekly claims and flash PMI metrics. The latter will likely carry greater sway as markets look for evidence on how the trade war is impacting US business. Fed speaker’s today include Williams and Barkin.
- The rally in the EUR has paused for breath. This morning’s macro focus has been on EZ PMI metrics which have painted a picture of a stabilising manufacturing sector but a slowdown in the services industry. The trade war is clearly acting as a cloud over the Eurozone economy; note, yesterday Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing a trade proposal for the US to steer momentum into talks. Today’s docket sees the ECB’s account of the April meeting. Currently trading around the 1.13 mark.
- JPY is top of the G10 leaderboard alongside the soft risk sentiment and as markets digest comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato and BoJ board member Noguchi. On the former, Kato noted that he agreed with US Treasury Secretary Bessent that FX rates should be set by markets and they did not directly discuss Japan’s US Treasury holdings. Elsewhere, BoJ’s Noguchi, in response to recent moves in Japanese yields, said that he does not think it is appropriate to recklessly intervene to correct bond yield moves.
- GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and extending its winning run for a fourth consecutive session. The latest round of PMI metrics from the UK saw the services component beat expectations and return to expansionary territory, manufacturing missed but ultimately, the composite rose and just about beat the consensus. Looking ahead, today’s speaker slate sees a trio of MPC members with Breeden, Dhingra & Pill all due on deck. Cable is currently contained within Wednesday’s 1.3380-1.3468 range.
- Mildly diverging fortunes for the Antipodes with AUD outperforming NZD as the AUD/NZD cross looks to close the post-RBA gap lower. Incremental newsflow for both has been lacking as the New Zealand Budget and forecasts garnered little fanfare and comments from RBA’s Hauser proved to be non-incremental.
Fixed Income
- USTs are a little firmer, attempting to recover following the hefty losses seen in the prior session following a weak US 20yr auction. Focus firmly is on the fiscal front. Overnight, the House Rules Committee passed President Trump’s tax/spending bill. Thereafter, the broader floor voted to open debate on the tax bill, a debate process that lasts for around two hours (started approx. 08:00BST) and is followed by a vote on the bill. Progress on the bill is bearish for USTs as it will increase the US’ debt level, a figure which has been increasing and was the driver behind the Moody’s downgrade last week. USTs currently trading around 109-19.
- Bunds started the day in the red but currently at the upper-end of a 129.49-91 band. Bunds have been gradually making their way off lows throughout the morning, edging higher slowly into the day’s data points which have featured generally weak Flash PMIs, with the expectation of Manufacturing where tariff-mitigation measures appear to have provided some support. No real reaction to the German Ifo figures at the same time. Ahead, ECB Minutes though as usual these will be deemed stale; focus will be on ECB’s de Guindos, Elderson and Escriva throughout the day.
- Gilts are softer, trading slightly weaker than EGBs throughout the morning as has been the case at several points over the last few weeks but with today’s underperformance likely a function of Gilts reacting to Wednesday’s US auction and borrowing data this morning. PSNB data this morning came in well above expectations and the prior, though that was subject to a downward revision, in another unwelcome series for Chancellor Reeves after the hotter-than-expected inflation print earlier this week. Given all this, Gilts opened lower by 18 ticks and then slipped another 13 to a 90.29 trough in short order.
- Swedish Debt Office sees the 2025 deficit at SEK 93bln (Nov. forecast 65bln), nominal bond volume SEK 118bln (Nov. forecast 100bln); “new plan also contains an additional foreign currency bond for this year”.
- Spain sells EUR 6.2bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 5.15% 2028, 3.10% 2031 & 1.00% 2042 Bonds.
- France sells EUR 12.497bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, 0.00% 2032 OATs.
Commodities
- Crude futures were pressured overnight by the downbeat mood across markets and following bearish inventory data. Renewed pressure was seen during the European morning amid source reports that OPEC+ members are reportedly discussing whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July, via Bloomberg citing sources, although no agreement has been reached yet. WTI resides in a USD 60.37-61.75/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 63.67-65.03/bbl parameter.
- Overall, there is mixed trade across precious metals with hefty underperformance in spot palladium as it tracks the downbeat sentiment across the auto sector. Spot gold trades flat now and currently resides in a current USD 3,311.08-3,345.47/oz range.
- Base metals are mostly lower amid the broader downbeat risk profile, whilst Flash PMIs from Europe this morning were mixed but the commentary was mostly downbeat. 3M LME copper resides closer to the bottom end of a USD 9,495.65-9,579.20/t range at the time of writing.
- UK urged lowering price cap on Russian oil at the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.
- OPEC+ members are reportedly discussing on whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July, via Bloomberg citing sources; one of the options being discussed, no agreement has been reached yet.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Iranian Foreign Minister says “We have a better understanding in many areas, but in some, especially enrichment, differences still remain. I think we cannot reach an agreement until this issue is resolved.”, via Iran Nuances
- Israel is preparing to carry out a swift attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if nuclear talks between the US and Iran fail, via Walla citing sources.
- Israeli military said it identified and intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards Israel.
- Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near a Jewish museum in Washington DC, while the Washington DC police chief announced the suspect was detained by event security and had chanted “Free Palestine” while in custody.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Moscow Mayor says Russian has downed two drones en route to Moscow
- US President Trump told European leaders in private that Russian President Putin isn’t ready to end the war, according to WSJ.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korea said it will convene the ruling party central committee meeting in late June and North Korean leader Kim watched the launch of a 5000-ton destroyer, while an accident occurred during the launch of the North Korean warship. Furthermore, Kim said the accident was unacceptable and was the result of negligence and irresponsibility.
- Indian PM Modi says Pakistan will not get water, to which India has a right.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.25, prior -0.03
- 8:30 am: May 17 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230k, prior 229k
- 8:30 am: May 10 Continuing Claims, est. 1881.62k, prior 1881k
- 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.85, prior 50.2
- 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 51, prior 50.8
- 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 50.3, prior 50.6
- 10:00 am: Apr Existing Home Sales, est. 4.1m, prior 4.02m
- 10:00 am: Apr Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.99%, prior -5.9%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from Holland where I’ve just been told I’m now a BA Gold Card holder for life after my latest trip tipped me over the landmark. Annoyingly in my first 10 plus years of my career I didn’t collect tier points as I couldn’t be bothered to fill in the forms. So what could have been. I’ll make sure that on my way back home today I’ll have a celebratory decaf latte in the lounge.
If you collected air miles for issuing government debt then many DM countries would have been in the first class lounge many years ago and over the last 24 hours concerns have continued to mount about debt sustainability. We should put it into some perspective as sensible people have been worried about debt sustainability for years. Indeed if you’d have told anyone 10-20 years ago that the US could comfortably fund 7% mid-cycle deficits in recent years then most would have been incredulous at the prospect. So we could have sustainability fears for years to come before an inevitable accident or event happens. However it’s fair to say that events in 2025 have brought forward any day of reckoning.
Yesterday saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+12.3bps to 5.09%) close above 5% for the first time since October 2023, and only 2bps away from its highest level since 2007. Even during the inflation peak at 9.1% in 2022, 30 year US yields didn’t climb above 4.40% that year. The only time they’ve been briefly above 5% since 2007 was at the peak of the Treasury sell off in autumn 2023, when yields rose by over 100bps in under three months following an increase in the supply of long-dated bonds and delay of Fed rate cut expectations. It took a change in issuance duration from the Treasury to calm the long-end.
While Treasury yields were already trading around 5bps higher midway through yesterday’s session, they took another major step higher after a soft 20yr auction, which saw $16bn of bonds issued at 5.05%, +1.2bps above the pre-sale yield. This ended a pattern seen in the previous two sessions of an early Treasury sell-off reversing during US trading hours. Real yields led the move higher, with 30yr real yields rising +11.2bps to 2.78%, their highest level since 2008. Elsewhere along the curve, the 10yr yield (+11.2bps) rose to 4.60% and even the front-end wasn’t immune to the selloff, as the 2yr yield (+4.7bps) also moved back up to 4.02%. And in a repeat of concerns over US ability to attract foreign investors to fund its twin deficits, the rise in yields came while the dollar index (-0.56%) lost ground for a third session running. This morning US Treasuries are quieter, trading 1-2bps lower across the curve.
The soft 20yr auction was also a trigger for a broader market slump, with the S&P 500 falling from -0.2% on the day to -1.61% by the close, its worst day in the past month. This was a very broad-based decline with only 18 advancers in the whole index and the equal-weighted version of the S&P down -2.15%. The Mag-7 (-1.03%) saw a relative outperformance, mostly thanks to a +2.79% advance for Alphabet. Over in Europe, markets had closed before the US sell-off, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) little changed, while Germany’s DAX (+0.36%) reached another record high that took its YTD gains to +21.16%. European futures are around two-thirds of a percent lower as I type.
All those moves came amid an increased focus on the fiscal implication of the US tax bill going through the House of Representatives, which includes tax cuts that would increase the deficit over the years ahead. Initially, it had looked as though we might get a vote on the bill yesterday, which Speaker Johnson said he was planning on. But the chances diminished as the day went on, as various Republican members were still signalling their opposition. As a reminder, they only have a 220-212 margin in the House, so it only requires a handful of votes against (along with the Democrats) to vote down any bill.
In terms of the latest on the budget bill, some of the main issues appeared to be overcome yesterday with the House Republican leadership releasing an revised version late last night US time. That included raising the proposed state and local tax (SALT) deduction up to $40,000, from $10,000 at present, as several Republicans from higher-tax states had threatened to vote against a bill that didn’t see a big enough increase in the SALT limit. And to placate fiscal conservatives, the updated bill would speed up the implementation of Medicaid work requirements and a reduction in Biden-era clean energy tax breaks. As I write this, it still remains to be seen if the revised bill will pass the House, though reporting last night suggested that Trump and Speaker Johnson had assuaged the opposition from the right-wing House Freedom Caucus.
Turning to the global moves, the bond selloff also wasn’t helped by an upside surprise in the UK CPI print. That showed headline CPI rising more than expected to +3.5% in April (vs. +3.3% expected), whilst core inflation also rose to +3.8% (vs. +3.6% expected). In absolute terms, it was also the fastest headline inflation rate since January 2024, so that led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England. For example, the amount of cuts priced by December came down -3.2bps on the day to 38bps. And in turn, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 4.76%. But sovereign bonds also sold off across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.9ps), OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+4.0bps) all moving higher.
In trade news, Bloomberg reported yesterday that the EU has shared a revised trade proposal with Washington, which includes steps such as gradually reducing tariffs to zero on non-sensitive agricultural products and industrial goods, as it aims to build new momentum for transatlantic talks.
Looking forward, the main highlight today will be the flash PMIs for May from around the world. Those will be interesting, as they’re one of the first indications we have for how the global economy has performed this month, particularly given not all of the Liberation Day impact would have been immediately clear in April. Overnight, we’ve already had the numbers from Japan and Australia. Data showed that Australia’s manufacturing sector has maintained its expansion for the fifth consecutive month, with the S&P Global manufacturing PMI holding steady at 51.7 in May. The services PMI decreased to 50.5 from 51.0 previously, while the composite fell to 50.6 in May from 51.0 in the prior month.
Japan’s manufacturing sector continued its decline in May, marking the 11th consecutive month below 50, coming in at 49.0 in May, showing a slight improvement from the previous month’s level of 48.7. On a more positive note, services remained in expansion at 50.8 in May, although it slowed from April’s 52.4. The composite declined to 49.8 in May from 51.2 in April.
Asian equity markets are following on from Wall Street’s late decline. The KOSPI (-1.16%) is leading the way, primarily due to losses in technology stocks. It is followed by the Nikkei (-1.12%), Hang Seng (-0.55%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.54%). Mainland Chinese markets are relatively flat amid increasing optimism that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to bolster the economy.
Meanwhile Bitcoin is fast approaching $112,000 and trading at a new record as hopes increase that Stablecoin regulation will soon pass after the advancement of legislation yesterday. The US debt instability has probably helped too.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the flash PMIs from Europe and the US. Otherwise, we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims and existing home sales for April, whilst in Germany there’s the Ifo’s business climate indicator for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Elderson and Escriva, the Fed’s Barkin and Williams, and the BoE’s Breeden, Dhingra and Pill. We’ll also get the ECB’s account of their April meeting.
2b European Opening report
2c Asian opening report
House Rules Committee approved Trump’s bill, it faces the floor next – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 01:52 AM
- APAC stocks were on the back foot following the sell-off on Wall St where stocks, treasuries and the dollar were pressured amid deficit concerns and a weak 20-year auction.
- US President Trump said he was feeling very good about the bill in Congress; US House Speaker Johnson said on Wednesday that they were yet to decide on a vote on the tax bill that night or on Thursday but added that the Trump tax bill is moving forward.
- Bitcoin extended on gains and printed a fresh all-time high of above the USD 111k level; Texas House approved the bill to create a Bitcoin reserve.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.8% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, German Ifo, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Producer Prices, NZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Speakers including RBA’s Hauser, BoE’s Breeden, Dhingra & Pill, ECB’s Elderson & de Guindos, BoC’s Gravelle, Fed’s Barkin & Williams, Supply from Spain, France & US.
- Earnings from BT, British Land, easyJet, QinetiQ, Tate & Lyle, ConvaTec, Intertek, Generali, PKN Orlen, Allegro, Julius Baer, Galenica, Autodesk, Ross & Analog Devices.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks declined on what was a “sell US” day in which all major indices posted notable losses and Treasuries were sold across the curve.
- The focus has largely been on Trump’s tax bill with an agreement made on the SALT deductions, although some Republican hardliners are still worried that not enough spending cuts are included in the bill, while the CBO estimated the bill would add USD 2.3tln to deficits over the next decade, raising fiscal fears.
- Furthermore, the selling was later exacerbated in the aftermath of a weak 20-year bond auction, which saw a chunky 1.2bps tail and soft bid-to-cover.
- SPX -1.61% at 5,845, NDX -1.34% at 21,080, DJI -1.91% at 41,860, RUT -2.8% at 2,047.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- EU is open to extending lobster deal as part of a package to remove tariffs imposed by US President Trump, according to FT.
- South African President Ramaphosa said following a meeting with US President Trump that they had discussions on trade and there will continue to be engagement on tariffs. It was also reported that South Africa’s Trade Minister said they submitted a proposal regarding a framework agreement with the US and had some US feedback, while they then resubmitted a revised document with the proposal about a trade agreement.
- Canada’s Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs LeBlanc is to visit Washington DC to meet with Trump admin officials, while it was also reported that Canada’s Finance Minister Champagne said he will discuss Canada’s role as the largest customer for US exports in meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he told Bessent that US tariffs are regrettable and stated tariffs are not an appropriate means to correct macroeconomic imbalances that are behind trade imbalances, while Kato noted that he did not directly discuss Japan’s US Treasury holdings in the meeting with Bessent.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato discussed global security and bilateral trade and currency issues on the sidelines of the G7, while they reaffirmed shared belief that exchange rates should be market-determined and reaffirmed USD/JPY exchange rate currently reflects fundamentals.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump posted “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, among others, and will be making a decision in the near future.”
- US President Trump said he was feeling very good about the bill in Congress.
- US House Speaker Johnson said on Wednesday that they were yet to decide on a vote on the tax bill that night or on Thursday but added that the Trump tax bill is moving forward. It was later reported that the US House Rules Committee approved Trump’s sweeping tax cut bill which sets the stage for a full House floor vote on the tax cut bill.
- US HHS Secretary’s widely anticipated “Make America Healthy Again” report is expected to criticise food additives, lobbyists and vaccines, but go easier than expected on pesticides in farming, according to WSJ citing sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were on the back foot following the sell-off on Wall St where stocks, treasuries and the dollar were pressured amid deficit concerns and a weak 20-year auction.
- ASX 200 retreated with energy and tech front-running the declines, although continued strength in gold producers atoned for some of the losses.
- Nikkei 225 gapped beneath the 37,000 level amid a firmer currency and proceeded in a somewhat choppy fashion as participants also digested data releases, including a surprise surge in Japanese Machinery Orders and mixed PMI figures.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment in the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts and after recent earnings results failed to inspire, while the mainland initially showed resilience in early trade before succumbing to the broad risk-off mood.
- US equity futures were little changed but saw some mild reprieve from the recent ‘sell America’ impulse.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.8% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY remained lacklustre beneath the 100.00 level after weakening yesterday as US assets were pressured after a poor US 20yr bond auction and with some concerns regarding the ramifications of the US tax bill on the deficit, while it has been extremely quiet so far this week on the data front although will begin to pick up with US Jobless claims and PMI figures scheduled later.
- EUR/USD held on to its recent spoils against the greenback although the upside was capped and there was little reaction to recent ECB rhetoric.
- GBP/USD traded rangebound with support near the 1.3400 level although gains were limited after the recent CPI-triggered momentum lost steam.
- USD/JPY saw two-way price action following mixed data and with an initial uplift following a report that US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato discussed global security, bilateral trade and currency issues on the sidelines of the G7 where they affirmed that the USD/JPY exchange rate currently reflected fundamentals. Nonetheless, the initial advance was gradually reversed amid dollar weakness and the negative risk tone.
- Antipodeans lacked direction as tailwinds from the softer dollar were offset by the risk-averse sentiment, while the New Zealand Budget and forecasts garnered little fanfare.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1903 vs exp. 7.2009 (Prev. 7.1937).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures attempted to regain some composure after declining yesterday on deficit concerns and a weak 20yr auction.
- Bund futures languished around this week’s worst levels after retreating to sub-130.00 territory and with German Ifo data scheduled later.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked the losses in global peers amid mild upside in Japanese yields and mixed results from the 10yr inflation-indexed JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures lacked direction after fully reversing the recent spike that was triggered by Iran/Israel headlines, with prices pressured overnight by the downbeat mood and following bearish inventory data.
- UK urged lowering price cap on Russian oil at the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.
- Spot gold continued to edge higher above the USD 3,300/oz level owing to a weaker dollar and US deficit concerns.
- Copper futures rebounded from the prior day’s trough following the recent choppy performance and with prices helped by early resilience in its largest buyer.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extended on gains and printed a fresh all-time high of above the USD 111k level.
- Texas House approved the bill to create a Bitcoin reserve.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Mar) 13.0% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. 4.3%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Mar) 8.4% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. 1.5%)
- Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (May) 49.0 (Prev. 48.7)
- Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (May) 50.8 (Prev. 52.4)
- Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (May) 49.8 (Prev. 51.2)
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 51.7 (Prev. 51.7)
- Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 50.5 (Prev. 51.0)
- Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 50.6 (Prev. 51.0)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel probably killed Hamas leader Sinwar and Iran still poses a serious threat to Israel, while he added that in the end, all parts of Gaza will be under Israeli control.
- Israeli military said it identified and intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards Israel.
- Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near a Jewish museum in Washington DC, while the Washington DC police chief announced the suspect was detained by event security and had chanted “Free Palestine” while in custody.
- Oman’s Foreign Minister announced the fifth round of Iran-US nuclear talks will take place in Rome on May 23rd.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump told European leaders in private that Russian President Putin isn’t ready to end the war, according to WSJ.
OTHER
- North Korea said it will convene the ruling party central committee meeting in late June and North Korean leader Kim watched the launch of a 5000-ton destroyer, while an accident occurred during the launch of the North Korean warship. Furthermore, Kim said the accident was unacceptable and was the result of negligence and irresponsibility.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Escriva said the Euro’s recent appreciation was a surprise and it is more difficult to predict how tariffs impact inflation.
- ECB’s Nagel sees progress on the US tariff dispute but more hurdles to overcome and noted the US was showing a better understanding of Europe’s point of view, while he is a little more confident than perhaps was a few days ago. Nagel stated that German economic growth in Q1 could surprise on the upside but will get worse in Q2 and could see 1% plus growth in 2026.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
SPAIN
Spain’s Socialist Govt Pours Taxpayers’ Millions Into Equality Plan To Combat Nationalist Surg
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
As nationalist parties surge across Europe, the Spanish Socialist-led government is doubling down on its ideological agenda — plowing over €140 million of taxpayer money into a nationwide equality plan aimed, in part, at combating what it labels “far-right” narratives among young men.
The move comes just days after significant gains for right-wing forces across the continent, including in neighboring Portugal, where the populist Chega party enjoyed electoral success to compete with the two dominant legacy parties, and in Poland, where the presidential race saw a majority of voters supporting conservative candidates.
Yet while many European electorates turn toward nationalist, traditionalist platforms, Spain’s Ministry of Equality has announced the distribution of €142.5 million to the country’s autonomous communities as part of its 2025 Co-Responsible Plan.
As reported by El Debate, the funding, which is 75 percent covered by the central government and 25 percent by regional administrations, will finance projects aimed at enforcing gender parity, redefining family life, and promoting what the government terms “co-responsible masculinities.”
Speaking after the Council of Ministers approved the latest round of funding, Equality Minister Ana Redondo explained that the Spanish government’s focus is “social transformation.”
The timing of the announcement has raised eyebrows, especially given Redondo’s remarks about the growing popularity of nationalist parties among young men. “It’s a concern of this government, in Europe, and a concern of society as a whole,” she said, describing online platforms as an environment where “hate, denialism, and anti-equality messages” are allegedly radicalizing young people against parties like hers and into the hands of populists.
Redondo warned that pornography and social media were fuelling “a misogynistic, sexist conception that devalues women,” which she claimed undermines both equality and democracy.
“All the policies of the Ministry are also aimed at facing this new reality,” she added.
Critics accuse the government of responding to rising disillusionment with its social agenda by funneling state money into programs that stigmatize dissenting views as extremism.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA
Two Israeli embassy staff members killed in shooting outside Jewish Museum in Washington
The shooting occurred in front of the museum where an event was being held by the American Jewish Committee.
By SARAH MOSKOWITZ, DANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARD, JAMES GENNMAY 22, 2025 05:53Updated: MAY 22, 2025 10:14
Two Israeli embassy staff members were shot and killed in front of the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington on Wednesday night.
Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli named one of the victims of the attack as Yaron Lisinsky on X/Twitter.
Ambassador Yechiel Leiter said that the victims were a young couple who had recently become engaged to be married.
The suspect shouted “Free Palestine” while being arrested, Washington’s Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) Chief Pamela Smith announced, adding that the suspect was also seen pacing outside of the museum before the event took place.
MPD later identified the suspect as 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez, with MPD’s chief commenting that Rodriguez was not known to the police before the incident. Earlier reports described him as “having a goatee, wearing a blue jacket and blue jeans.”
Tal Naim, an embassy spokesperson, confirmed that the two were attending a Jewish cultural event at the museum when the shooting took place.
“We have full faith in law enforcement authorities on both the local and federal levels to apprehend the shooter and protect Israel’s representatives and Jewish communities throughout the United States,” she added.
During an interview with 103FM on Thursday morning, Naim commented that “We are simply shocked by the incident that happened here. It is important to say that Foreign Ministry envoys and diplomats are always threatened, and after October 7, even more so.”
“The murder of a young couple who came to an event of a Jewish body in a Jewish museum – it is simply a very hard blow,” she added.
When asked how an attacker managed to enter the event and shoot at will, she replied: “First of all, you have to be precise – he did not enter the event. He lurked outside, and when they came out, he shot them at close range. These are questions that need to be asked.”
Naim also commented on life in Washington as an Israeli, stating: “For six months, we had dozens of people demonstrating with signs, calling us child murderers, pouring red water on us, which is like blood spilled in Gaza. This is the reality of embassy employees.”
She then described the news that Americans are exposed to, saying that “an American citizen who turns on his television – and I’m not even talking about the networks, because that’s much more hackneyed – sees shocking images from Gaza, and many of them are fake. He gets images of destruction, hunger, blaming IDF soldiers for all kinds of crimes – and that definitely affects public opinion here.”
The FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force is currently investigating the incident. FBI Director Kash Patel added that his team has been briefed and is working with MPD to investigate.
What was the event where the shooting occurred?
The event at the Capital Jewish Museum was held by the American Jewish Committee, an advocacy group that supports Israel and confronts antisemitism, according to its website.
An online invitation to the event called it the Young Diplomats Reception, describing it as a bringing together of Jewish professionals between the ages of 22 and 45 and the Washington diplomatic community.
Despite the late hour, several people gathered at the scene of the shooting, including one who knelt on the ground at the intersection with an improvised Israeli flag draped over his shoulders.
Aaron Shemtov, who is studying at a rabbinical college in California, said he came to the museum to show support after hearing of the shooting.
“When a member of the community gets murdered and gets killed for who he is, we stand proud, we stand strong, and we never give up,” Shemtov said.
Rabbi Levi Shemtov, who was also at the scene, said the couple had attended his Washington synagogue occasionally.
“It’s very sad to see that instead of these people coming to the ultimate celebration of their life – they were about to get engaged – they get shot dead in the street just because of who they are,” said the rabbi, who is also the executive vice president of the Jewish group American Friends of Lubavitch.
END
Two Israeli Embassy Staff Members Gunned Down Outside Jewish Museum In D.C.
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 12:10 AM
Late Wednesday evening there is currently a massive ongoing police response in northwest Washington DC outside the Capital Jewish Museum, after gunfire erupted just outside which killed two staff members of the Israeli Embassy.
“Two Israeli Embassy staff were senselessly killed tonight near the Jewish Museum in Washington DC,” Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem confirmed in a post on X. “We are actively investigating and working to get more information to share.”
The shooting occurred across the street from the FBI’s Washington Field Office, which is located very near to the museum, and Israeli embassy officials are working with local law enforcement and the FBI.
It has further been confirmed that the Israeli ambassador is safe, and was not involved in the incident, and was not present at the time of the shooting.
Underscoring the seriousness of the killings, which appear to have targeted an event which took place at the Jewish Museum, US Attorney General Pam Bondi and acting US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro are currently on the scene in the aftermath.
Ted Deutch, the CEO of the American Jewish Committee, has described that his organization was hosting an event at the museum and has issued an initial statement:
“We are devastated that an unspeakable act of violence took place outside the venue.”
“At this moment, as we await more information from the police about exactly what transpired, our attention and our hearts are solely with those who were harmed and their families.”
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, has also issued a statement calling it a “depraved act of anti-Semitic terrorism”:
Reports say that a suspect may be in custody, but it is unclear as the security situation is fluid amid the ongoing emergency response.
One man and one woman were shot and killed outside of an event at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, law enforcement sources told ABC News.
The suspect in the shooting has been identified as a 30-year-old man from Chicago, Washington, D.C. Police Chief Pam Smith said.
“Two staff members of the Israeli embassy were shot this evening at close range while attending a Jewish event at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington DC,” the spokesperson at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, Tal Naim Cohen, said in a statement on Wednesday night. –ABC News
There are unconfirmed reports that a gunmen screamed “free Palestine” and opened fire:
Houman David Hemmati, who is connected to the event at the Jewish Museum, writes on X:
Chaotic scene tonight inside Washington DC Capitol Jewish Museum where, just outside, 2 people (potentially Israeli diplomatic) who may have been attending an American Jewish Committee Young Diplomats event (one I organized years ago) shot & killed.
Tensions have been running high following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration that a new phase of the Gaza War has begun, dubbed ‘Operation Gideon’s Chariots’ – which aims to fully eradicate Hamas and end in a full Israeli military takeover of the Gaza Strip.
Is this a return to a horrific summer of love?… amid boiling geopolitical tensions which threaten to erupt in a city near you.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/
IDF intercepts Houthi missile that triggered sirens in central Israel
Magen David Adom said that there were no reports of injuries, except for a single case of a man who was injured on the way to a protected area.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 22, 2025 02:57Updated: MAY 22, 2025 03:46
The IDF intercepted a missile launched from Yemen on Thursday morning, the military reported.
Magen David Adom reported no injuries, except for one man who was hurt while heading to a protected area.
Landings at Ben-Gurion Airport have resumed after being temporarily suspended due to the missile alert, Ynet reported.Before the interception, the military identified the missile launch toward Israeli territory. The IAF’s aerial defense systems were activated to intercept the threat, according to the IDF.
‘Alerts may be activated’
On Thursday morning, the Home Front Command sent out a message to all app users stating, “Due to detection of missile launches toward Israel, alerts may be activated in Dan, Sharon, Shfela (Lowlands), Yarkon, Lakhish, Shfelat Yehuda, and Samaria areas in the coming minutes.”
The military added that the public was requested to follow the Home Front Command’s defensive guidelines.
Following the IDF’s warning, Red Alert sirens sounded in central Israel.
“Sirens sounded in several areas in Israel following a projectile that was launched from Yemen. The details are under review,” the military stated.
Previous missile intercepted
Last week, the IDF intercepted another missile fired by Houthi terrorists from Yemen, The Jerusalem Post reported.
Sirens were activated across central Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv.
Missile fragments landed in the settlement of Alon Shvut in the southern West Bank.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Bibi Defiant, Unfazed: ‘All Of Gaza Will Be Under Israel’s Control’
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 09:20 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained defiant and came out swinging in a Wednesday press conference amid growing international isolation and pressure, even from allies.
He declared at a press conference in Jerusalem that Israel will control all of Gaza when the military offensive ends, and this remains the ultimate goal – to fully and finally crush Hamas.
Netanyahu described that it was days ago, upon the approval of Operation Gideon’s Chariots – the greatly expanded ground offensive in Gaza – that he made the decision to initiate the next stage of the war.
He asserted that “At the end of this campaign, all of the territories of the Gaza Strip will be under Israel’s security control.”
However, he did also say that “If there is an option for a temporary ceasefire to free hostages, we’ll be ready” – this after calling back Israeli negotiators from Doha this week.
He further said in the televised news conference, which was his first since December, that “We must avoid a humanitarian crisis in order to preserve our freedom of operational action.”
Shortly after the address, regional headlines cited that dozens of aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip, which marks the end of an 80-day cutoff, and after intense pressure from allies to let aid flow, and amid fears of famine gripping the Palestinian population.
The BBC observed that Netanyahu’s tone was one of defiance and defensiveness:
Benjamin Netanyahu was in defensive mode, sticking to his guns and unfazed by critics – foreign and domestic – of his decision to step up the war in Gaza.
Operation Gideon’s Chariots is intended to “complete the war, the job”, said the Israeli Prime Minister at a rare press conference tonight to which only Israeli media were invited.
Despite recent reports this week that President Trump is “frustrated” with Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister believes he still has Washington’s full backing:
Despite growing calls from Israel’s European allies to end the war and address Gaza’s dire humanitarian needs, as long as he has the backing of the United States to continue the war in Gaza, Netanyahu indicated he will not change tack.
He said that his controversial aid plan for Gaza, which would bypass existing UN structures and facilities, would give Israel “another tool to win the war”. It’s a plan that has been widely condemned by the UN and foreign governments as akin to “weaponizing food aid”.
Bibi vs. the world…
“The president [Trump] is frustrated about what is happening in Gaza. He wants the war to end, he wants the hostages to come home, he wants aid to go in and he wants to start rebuilding Gaza,” one White House official said to Axios.
Yet, the reality is that US arms flow has shown no signs of slowing, nor has the billions in annual foreign aid doled out to Tel Aviv. Western leaders will likely continue their largely symbolic hand-wringing and expressions of ‘frustration’ – but nothing is likely to fundamentally change regarding the Israeli military’s trajectory at this point. Gaza is being turned into a parking lot, essentially.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
IDF kills Hezbollah terrorist in southern Lebanon strike
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 22, 2025 19:55Updated: MAY 22, 2025 20:09
The IDF struck and killed a Hezbollah Radwan Force terrorist in the area of Rab El Thalathine in southern Lebanon on Thursday, the army announced.
This is a developing story.
END
WEST BANK
IDF arrests terror cell of 20 suspects in West Bank operation
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 2
The IDF arrested a terror cell of 20 suspects, and seized four rifles and 15 explosive devices that were reportedly ready to be used in the West Bank, the army confirmed on Thursday.
The IDF, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and Israel Police operated throughout the West Bank on Wednesday overnight, in the area of Kalkilya and Bala, to apprehend seven wanted individuals who conducted terror activity.
During the activity, four explosive devices ready to be used were confiscated, an M-4 rifle, a hunting rifle, and additional weapons.”
END
SYRIA
IRAN
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Putin Has ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment In Touring Liberated Kursk Region
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 07:40 PM
On Tuesday into Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin had a ‘mission accomplished’ moment by visiting Kursk region for the first time since its full liberation from Ukrainian forces.
It was in late April which Putin first announced that all Ukrainian troops have been booted out and retreated, after their risky cross-border raid which started in early August, and resulted in over six months of Ukraine forces occupying hundreds of square kilometers of Russian land.
Still, in touring some industrial sites in Kursk, including the construction site of the new Kursk 2 nuclear power plant in the city of Kurchatov, he admitted that the situation in the Kursk border region remains “difficult”.
Ukraine has continued sending drones on a weekly basis into these southern regions, and there’s the constant threat of cross-border shelling, and even ongoing attempts at limited ground incursions. These border threats are far from fully over.
Moscow had controversially deployed thousands of North Korean troops to Kursk over the last several months in order to help national forces drive out the Ukrainian occupiers.
Putin during the visit also held meetings with Governor Aleksandr Khinshtein and local officials on Tuesday, the Kremlin and state media said. He thanked volunteers in the war-ravaged border region for the “the noble, important and… unfortunately, dangerous” work that they had been doing.
State media footage showing Putin in a Kursk nuclear facility:
“You and I are a team, and the whole country today is one united team. And this is the unquestionable success of all our endeavors. This is a necessary condition for achieving all our goals,” he said.
Meanwhile, Western allies are not happy that President Trump is not pressuring Moscow harder, and has thus far refrained from slapping even more sanctions on Russia.
Sumy next as part of Russia’s envisioned border ‘security buffer’ zone?
Bloomberg previously reported that in the latest communications with European allies, Trump supposedly “repeated a number of the Kremlin’s talking points” while painting a general picture of Russian military momentum and gains on the battlefield.
And according to the NY Times, “images and videos of the trip released by the Kremlin were seemingly aimed at projecting a return to normality, even as fighting still raged in one corner of the region.”
As for ‘normality’ – fresh statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio before a Senate hearing on Tuesday seemed to echo a desire to present things in eastern Europe as ‘normal’ – or at least not getting too distracted by…
“But by the same token, I would say there’s a flip side to that, and that is every minute we spend, every dollar we spend on this conflict in Europe is distracting both our focus and our resources away from the potential for a much more serious, much more cataclysmic confrontation in the Indo-Pacific,” Rubio told senators.
END
Putin Isn’t Ready To End War In Ukraine, Trump Told Allies In Private
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 01:35 PM
European leaders have been alarmed in the wake of their May 19 conference phone call with President Trump, as they believe he’s prepared to given Putin a free hand in Ukraine, and is unwilling to impose more sanctions or further confront Moscow in a muscular way. He has also reportedly conveyed that the war is not my problem and that Russia and Ukraine will have to settle it on their own.
He reportedly informed European leaders, which had included French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – that Putin is not ready for peace in Ukraine because he believes he is winning the war.
“On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the Ukraine war because he thinks he is winning, according to senior European officials familiar with the conversation,” The Wall Street Journal, which is the first to reveal the statements, writes.
“European leaders had long believed this—but it was the first time they were hearing it from Trump, these officials said. It also ran counter to what Trump has often said publicly, that he believes Putin genuinely wants peace,” the report continues. They hope with this admission that Trump will escalate in support of Ukraine, but he has remained resistant to this pressure. And of course, this isn’t what his voters want, nor is it (escalation) the majority position of the American people.
The White House has frequently said that it assesses Putin is genuine about seeking peace, in pushback to critics – including in Kiev – who say the Kremlin is just using the talks to stall as the Russian military makes slow advances on the ground, and further weaken Ukraine’s front lines.
The result is that Europe and Kiev want Trump to ramp up support to Kiev and punish Russia, which would lead to escalation in the war, but Trump is refusing to go along with this strategy:
One of the officials, who was on the call, said Trump began the discussion by saying, “I think Vladimir does not want peace.”
Although Trump appears to have come around to the idea that Putin isn’t ready for peace, the officials said, that hasn’t led him to do what the Europeans and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have been arguing he should do: double down on the fight against Russia.
This elicited surprise among the Europeans, who concluded that Trump seems relatively content at what he’s been hearing from Putin in phone calls.
Another key line from the WSJ report focuses on Trump’s rejection of an ‘unconditional’ ceasefire in Ukraine:
Some of the Europeans on the call Monday insisted that the outcome of any talks at the Vatican must be an unconditional cease-fire. But Trump again demurred, saying he didn’t like the term “unconditional.” He said he had never used that term, although he used it when calling for a 30-day cease-fire in a post on his Truth Social platform on May 8. The Europeans eventually agreed to drop their insistence on the adjective.
Or to put it another way, Trump simply understands how negotiations work in reality and that Putin holds the cards and Zelensky isn’t holding much, if any.
All of this is also a simple acknowledgement that of course Putin doesn’t want peace which does not result in the Russian-speaking eastern territories being under the Russian Federation, as well as Crimea.
Moscow certainly isn’t interested in a truce deal which still results in NATO military infrastructure right on its door step. Putin has long warned that NATO expansion means that another war would have to be fought in the future, even if the current Ukraine conflict ends.
The current mainstream media framing of Trump’s efforts are intent on painting him as a Kremlin-sympathetic compromiser, when really he’s just recognizing the reality of the Russian perspective, combined with the realization the West can’t really do anything about it (short of military escalation which risks nuclear confrontation).
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Masked NIH Employees Storm Out Of Meeting After Director Bhattacharya Questions Agency’s Role In COVID-19 Origins
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 04:20 PM
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), sparked a mass walkout of NIH employees after suggesting that COVID-19 may have originated from a Wuhan lab and that NIH helped fund it.
During a staff town hall meeting on Monday, Bhattacharya told NIH employees, “It’s possible that the pandemic was caused by research conducted by human beings, and it’s also possible that the NIH partly sponsored that research.”
That comment prompted dozens of NIH employees to walk out of the meeting.
As the NIH employees, some wearing masks, stormed out of the meeting, Bhattacharya called after them, “Nice to have free speech. You’re welcome, you guys.”
Bhattacharya told the remaining employees, “If it’s true that we sponsored research that caused the pandemic — and if you look at polls of the American people, that’s what most people believe, and I’ve looked at the scientific evidence and I believe it — [then] what we have to do is make sure that we don’t engage in research that is any risk…to human populations.”
The U.S. has faced growing scrutiny for the NIH’s participation in controversial virus manipulation experiments at the Wuhan Institute of Virology where the FBI and CIA both believe the COVID-19 virus originated.
As the new director of NIH, Bhattacharya has also faced a $2.7 billion cut in funding from the federal government as well as the layoffs of more than 1,200 staff members.
Bhattacharya has argued that the cuts are necessary since, “There’s been a line of research supported by the NIH that I don’t actually fundamentally believe is scientific and that is ideological in nature.”
The new NIH director became well known during the pandemic for his support of the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for ending lockdowns for all but the most vulnerable.
END
It would have harmed you greatly
(Stieber)
Moderna Withdraws Application For Combination COVID-19–Influenza Vaccine
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 01:10 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Moderna on May 21 said it withdrew its application for a license for its combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza.
The move came “in consultation with” the Food and Drug Administration, which decides on licensing applications, the Massachusetts-based pharmaceutical company said in a brief statement.
The combination shot is known as mRNA-1083.
“The Company plans to resubmit the [application] later this year, after vaccine efficacy data from the ongoing Phase 3 trial of its investigational seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, are available,” Moderna stated. “Moderna continues to expect interim data from the mRNA-1010 trial to be available this summer.”
Moderna and some other vaccine makers began testing combination COVID-19–flu shots during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company said in 2024 that its combination vaccine performed well in a phase 3 clinical trial. Moderna researchers said in May that in the trial, the vaccine elicited immune responses that were at least as good as those from standard influenza vaccines and its COVID-19 vaccine.
Moderna had asked for licensure for its combination vaccine for people aged 50 and older, a population that is among the most susceptible to both influenza and COVID-19.
There are no combination COVID-19 vaccines on the market.
Pfizer and BioNTech reported in 2024 that their combination COVID-19–influenza vaccine in a phase 3 trial triggered immune responses against an influenza A strain and COVID-19 that were at least as good as those seen after flu and COVID-19 vaccination, but that the antibody levels were lower against influenza B for people who received the combination shot than the levels triggered by standard flu vaccination.
“We are committed to developing vaccines that will reduce the burden of respiratory diseases and believe that combination vaccines are the most efficient way to do this,” Annaliesa Anderson, a Pfizer senior vice president, said at the time. “Today’s results provide insight and direction towards achieving this goal, and we remain optimistic about our combination COVID-19 and influenza program, for which we are evaluating the next steps.”
Moderna’s announcement came one day after FDA officials said they would not approve COVID-19 vaccines for many Americans without trial data showing that the benefits of the shots outweigh the risks.
“We want to know more about what the products are doing, especially as we enter the seventh, eighth, ninth doses,” Dr. Vinay Prasad, head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said at a town hall.
He also noted that the FDA plans to approve vaccines based only on antibody data for people older than 65 and for younger people who have at least one factor that places them at higher risk of severe COVID-19, as determined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, such as obesity. FDA officials estimate that 100 million to 200 million Americans fall into one of those groups.
Just 13 percent of children and 23 percent of adults, according to CDC data, have received one of the currently available COVID-19 vaccine formulations.
END
PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING ACCOUNT ON THE HARM OF THE VACCINE
(VIGILANT FOX)
COVID Vaccine “Safe and Effective” Narrative Collapses On Camera
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 02:00 PM
Authored by The Vigilant Fox via vigilantfox.com,
The “safe and effective” narrative collapsed on camera during Senator Ron Johnson’s explosive Senate hearing on COVID-19 vaccine injuries Wednesday afternoon.
Senator Ron Johnson brought the receipts, exposing how the Biden administration DELIBERATELY hid vaccine harms from the public.
Then Dr. James Thorp (OB-GYN) revealed miscarriage data so disturbing, it left the room silent.
This is the Senate hearing they never wanted you to see. I turned three hours of footage into a five-minute read.
Senator Ron Johnson opened the hearing with a bombshell: the Biden administration knew about deadly heart risks tied to the COVID shots, and deliberately kept it from the public.
Johnson released newly subpoenaed records exposing a detailed timeline of what officials knew and when. While Pfizer and Moderna received insider updates, doctors and citizens who raised concerns were silenced.
In February 2021, Israeli health officials warned the CDC of “large reports of myocarditis, particularly in young people” following Pfizer injections, just two and a half months after the vaccine received emergency use authorization.
By April, the CDC was already reviewing myocarditis data from Israel and the Department of Defense. But instead of alerting the public, they stayed quiet.
By the end of that month, VAERS had recorded 2,926 deaths, nearly half of which occurred within three days of injection. “Somebody ought to be looking at it,” Johnson said.
In May, the CDC considered issuing a formal health alert—but scrapped it. They replaced it with watered-down guidance that removed a key warning for doctors to restrict physical activity in myocarditis patients.
Francis Collins, then director of the NIH, brushed it all off. “Senator, people die,” he told Johnson.
In just six months, the toll was staggering: 384,270 reports of adverse events, 4,812 deaths, and 1,736 of those occurred within just 48 hours of injection.
Dr. Peter McCullough then took the floor and upended the narrative that vaccine-induced myocarditis is “rare.”
Before COVID, McCullough had seen just two myocarditis cases in his entire career. After the rollout, everything changed.
He says he’s now “examined thousands of patients with this problem.”
“There’s 1,065 papers in the peer-reviewed literature on COVID vaccine myocarditis,” he explained, pointing to a 2021 case published in the New England Journal of Medicine. A 42-year-old man developed vaccine-induced myocarditis. “The infection is ruled out,” McCullough said. “It’s the vaccine.” Three days after his Moderna shot, the man was dead.
McCullough cited a shocking case from Korea—a young man who died within eight hours of hospitalization after a Pfizer shot. His heart had been, in McCullough’s words, “fried with inflammation.”
Then came a case from Connecticut: two teenage boys, 16 and 17, died in their sleep just days after Pfizer. Their parents found them unresponsive.
“These cases… should have gotten everyone’s attention,” McCullough said. “We should never have someone die after taking a vaccine that’s directly caused to the vaccine.”
Alabama-based physician Dr. Jordan Vaughn followed up with a chilling estimate—up to 15 million Americans may be suffering from long COVID or COVID vaccine injuries.
He now treats teenagers who can’t stand up and previously healthy adults who are suffering strokes with no clear cause.
According to Vaughn, the spike protein’s S1 subunit is far from harmless. “It triggers inflammation, it disrupts endothelial barriers, it induces fibrin resistant to breakdown, and it promotes a lot of amyloid aggregates,” he said.
These effects impair oxygen delivery, damage blood vessels, and trigger a wave of symptoms—racing heart, brain fog, shortness of breath, and post-exertional crashes.
In his clinic, Vaughn uses immunofluorescent microscopy to detect the spike protein’s damage, showing up in patients who were once thriving.
He warned that the mRNA injections led to uncontrolled spike protein production, which spread throughout the body, reaching the heart, brain, ovaries, and testes.
Regulators claimed the vaccine stayed in the arm. That was a lie. A Yale study now shows some people are still producing spike protein more than 700 days after their last injection.
We didn’t just inject people. We turned them into spike protein factories.
OB-GYN Dr. James Thorp delivered one of the most haunting moments of the hearing.
He said the COVID shots “MIRRORED” the effects of chemical abortion drugs—and the government knew what it was doing.
Dr. Thorp pointed to the now-infamous Shimabukuro study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, which claimed a 12.6% miscarriage rate following COVID vaccination.
But when you isolate the data for women vaccinated in the first trimester, the miscarriage rate rises to 82%, Dr. Thorp said. This 82% claim remains a topic of debate within the scientific community.
If true, “This figure mirrors the effects of chemical abort drugs,” Dr. Thorp lamented.
OB-GYN Dr. James Thorp delivered one of the most haunting moments of the hearing.
He said the COVID shots “MIRRORED” the effects of chemical abortion drugs—and the government knew what it was doing.
Dr. Thorp pointed to the now-infamous Shimabukuro study published in the New… pic.twitter.com/6ucjWU1se7— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 22, 2025
He added, “Recently, animal studies revealed the mRNA COVID vaccine causes the destruction of 60 PERCENT of the ovarian reserve in rats.”
If that effect translates to humans, it could be a catastrophic blow to fertility and the future of entire generations.
Dr. Thorp said pregnant women were deliberately targeted, and their unborn children paid the price.
“This must stop now,” he said.
Attorney Aaron Siri then delivered a little-known history lesson on vaccine liability.
“For every product on the market, you can SUE the manufacturer for harm,” Siri said. “There’s only ONE product in America you CANNOT sue the manufacturer to claim it could have been made safer—and that’s VACCINES.”
He explained how the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act gave pharmaceutical companies sweeping immunity, not just for three vaccines, but for every new childhood shot added to the CDC schedule.
The result? A schedule that exploded from 3 shots to 29 in the first year of life, with zero accountability.
“They don’t have the financial incentive to make them safer,” Siri said. “In fact, they have the disincentive.”
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESSt. Louis ‘They-Them’ Commissioner Suspended After Deadly Tornado Siren FailSarah Russell was promoted to Commissioner of CEMA in May 2021. They joined CEMA in 2010 as a specialist responsible for public information, community outreach, training, exercise, etc.Sarah Russell was fired on Saturday after the tornado sirens were not used during the massive tornado that swept through St. Louis City on Friday afternoon.Thousands of homes were damaged. At least five …READ THE FULL REPORTRep. LaMonica McIver Ordered to Surrender Firearms, Cannot Leave US – Faces 8 Years in PrisonDemocrat Rep. LaMonica McIver appeared before a judge on Wednesday after the Justice Department charged her with federal crimes for assaulting ICE agents.Rep. McIver appeared virtually from DC. She was released on her own recognizance and did not have to post bail.The judge ordered McIver to surrender her firearms and said she cannot travel outside of the US.Congresswoman LaMonica McIver …READ THE FULL REPORTWatch: Sparks Fly During Education Department Budget HearingSparks flew on Capitol Hill Wednesday as Education Secretary Linda McMahon faced off with Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, D-N.J., in a fiery exchange during a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing in the latest clash over the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle the Department of Education.The war of words began when Watson Coleman asked, “Do you believe that there is illegal discrimination …READ THE FULL REPORTICE Seattle Arrests 17 Illegal Immigrants in Beverage Company Worksite RaidOn Tuesday, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted a worksite raid at Eagle Beverage and Accessories Products in Kent, Washington, which resulted in the apprehension of 17 illegal migrants who were unlawfully employed at the manufacturing company.The workers taken into custody fraudulently represented their immigration statuses and submitted fraudulent documents to seek employment, according to ICE. The city of …READ THE FULL REPORTSouthwest Surprises Customers with Strict New Policy — The First of Its Kind in the IndustrySouthwest Airlines is implementing a surprising new restriction on portable chargers to keep these notoriously incendiary devices from bursting into flame mid-flight.Starting May 28, passengers will be required to keep their power banks in plain sight, making the budget carrier the first to roll out a policy of this kind.“Using portable charging devices while stored in a bag or overhead …READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
CANADA/IRAN,RUSSIA/CHINA
CCP, Russia, Iran Collaborating With Cartels To Smuggle Fentanyl Into US Through Canada: FBI Director
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Jennifer Cowan via The Epoch Times,
FBI Director Kash Patel says the flow of fentanyl into the United States is coming from his country’s northern neighbour. He says China, Russia, and Iran are partnering with cartels to smuggle the drug into the United States via Vancouver.
Patel told Fox News that the Chinese Communist Party and the regimes in Russia and Iran are responsible for the influx of fentanyl pouring into his country. He said hostile regimes like Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow are collaborating with criminal organizations to smuggle fentanyl across the Canada-U.S. border following President Donald Trump’s sealing of America’s southern border with Mexico.
“They’re sailing around to Vancouver and coming in by air,” Patel said during an interview with Fox News host Maria Bartiromo that aired on May 18. The FBI is focused on fentanyl coming across the border and calling on state and local law enforcement partners to address the issue, he said, also noting that the Canadian government needs to do more.
“You know who has to step in? It’s Canada, because they’re making it up there and shipping it down here,” he said.
“I don’t care about getting into this debate of making someone the 51st state or not, but they are our partner in the north. And say what you want about Mexico, but they helped us seal the southern border. The facts speak for themselves.”
With Vancouver being identified by the FBI as a problem area, B.C. Conservative MLA and public safety critic Elenore Sturko is calling on Premier David Eby’s NDP government to implement a provincial fentanyl strategy, appoint a bipartisan provincial drug task force on drug trafficking, and launch two public inquiries.
“The FBI has issued a warning to Canada to prepare in the event that we see an increase in the production of fentanyl and other deadly drugs as a result of American enforcement on their southern border with Mexico,” she said in a video posted on social media on May 18. “This shouldn’t come as a surprise to Canada, because we know that between 2023 and 2024, Canada saw an increase in the number of gangs and cartels and terrorist organizations doing business here in Canada, primarily in Ontario and in British Columbia.”
A 2024 report from Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) indicated that participation of Canada-based organized crime groups in fentanyl-related activities has increased by 42 percent since 2019.
There are 235 criminal organizations engaged in fentanyl-related activities, with 35 of these groups participating in the export of domestically manufactured drugs like fentanyl and methamphetamine, according to the report.
Sturko said immediate action should be taken by the B.C. government to deal with the fentanyl issue.
“It’s never been more important for us to take action on illicit drug production in British Columbia,” she said.
B.C.’s Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General Garry Begg has said that his government is expanding police resources and “intelligence-led” enforcement to fight drug trafficking.
“Just this past October [2024,] RCMP federal drug policing dismantled the largest fentanyl and methamphetamine superlab in Canadian history, preventing over 95 million lethal doses of this drug flooding our streets. This is the kind of action that saves lives,” Begg said in the B.C. legislature in February. “We will continue to support enforcement crackdowns on drug traffickers and bad actors wherever they may be in British Columbia.”
Drug Concerns
The comments from Patel and Sturko come just days after the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) released its 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment, which links Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs)—including international drug cartels and other violent criminal groups—to the fentanyl supply in the United States.
The law enforcement agency says Mexican cartels are capitalizing on the relative ease of the production of synthetic drugs compared with traditional plant-based drug production to generate immense revenues, primarily sourcing the necessary precursor chemicals from China and India. They maintain a “complex and robust” network—couriers, border tunnels, and stash houses—to smuggle all of the major illicit drugs into the United States via air and maritime cargo as well as overland traffic, the DEA said.
Canada was named in the DEA report as a destination point for shipments of precursor chemicals as well as a source of “growing concern” due to “elevated synthetic drug production” occurring there, particularly from sophisticated fentanyl “super laboratories” such as the type seized by the RCMP in B.C. in October 2024.
The production of fentanyl and its illicit smuggling across borders by Canadian criminal organizations has been a point of contention between the United States and Canada for several months.
Trump levied 25 percent tariffs on Canadian products not covered under the countries’ free-trade agreement USMCA, as well as a 10 percent levy on Canadian energy products, saying that Canada must do more on border security to curb the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs flowing into the United States.
White House senior adviser Peter Navarro has said the tariffs were implemented because “the president is fighting a drug war,” while dismissing accusations that his country was launching a trade war against Canada.
Canada has earmarked $1.5 billion to boost border security since Trump first threatened tariffs and, at his request, has also appointed a “fentanyl czar” to oversee a Canada–U.S. Joint Strike Force and named a list of fentanyl cartels as terrorists.
The Prime Minister’s Office said in January that less than 0.2 percent of fentanyl seized by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) comes from Canada.
According to the DEA’s 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment report, as of spring 2025, 22.7 kilograms of Canada-sourced fentanyl were seized at the Canada-U.S.border in 2024, compared to 9,354 kilograms seized at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Precursor Chemicals
But China analysts say the statistics on northern border drug seizures do not account for the Beijing-linked fentanyl precursor operations that are based in Canada.
“It doesn’t have to be that border services at the U.S. [bust] a big load of finished fentanyl,” author and investigative journalist Sam Cooper told The Epoch Times in a previous interview. “What is key here is that the precursors are coming into Canada and being shipped elsewhere, and the money laundering is being directed from Canada.”
Once these precursor chemicals are brought into the country, they predominantly find their way to superlabs located across Canada, especially in the Western provinces. “Superlabs” is the term used by the RCMP to describe the clandestine synthetic drug production facilities, which are “large-scale, highly organized labs generally tied to organized crime where drugs are produced for the purpose of wholesale trafficking.”
Federal investigators in British Columbia said they dismantled the “largest, most sophisticated” drug-production lab in Canadian history last fall, dealing what they described as a “decisive blow” to a major transnational organized crime group operating in the province.
Pacific Region RCMP Assistant Commissioner David Teboul said officers seized a combination of precursor chemicals and finished fentanyl products that could have amounted to 95.5 million potentially lethal doses of fentanyl.
Several million more “potentially lethal doses of fentanyl” were seized by the B.C. RCMP in March after investigators dismantled three synthetic drug labs in the province. All three labs have been tied to transnational organized crime groups based in British Columbia.
The police said it was not known where the drugs would have been shipped, but a June 2024 briefing note by Global Affairs Canada said that past seizures of Canada-sourced fentanyl have occurred in places like the United States and Australia.
The report identified China as the largest source country for illegal fentanyl and chemical precursors exported to Canada and North America since 2015.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1313 DOWN 0.0018 PTS OR 18 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 143.09 DOWN 0.607 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3529 UP .0008 OR 8 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3859 DOWN 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 7.38 PTS OR 0.22%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 317.66 PTS OR 1.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .47%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 317.66 PTS OR 1.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN DOWN 7.38 PTS OR 0.22%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.47%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 313.11 PTS OR 0.84%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3326.60
silver:$33.45
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.50 UP 0.07 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.141% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.559% UP 4 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.264 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.657 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6475 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1297 DOWN 0.0036 OR 36 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.60 DOWN 0.107 OR YEN IS UP 11 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8265 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0022 OR 22 BASIS pts to 1.3888
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.2048, CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2030
TURKISH LIRA: 38.92 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.559
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.592% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.117 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.982 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3307.55
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.93
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 47.20 PTS OR 0.54%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 123.23 pts or 0.51%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 46.05 pts or 0.58%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 35.10 pts or 0.25%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 294.63 or 0.73%
WTI Oil price 60.67 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 64.00 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.47 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 27/ 100
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.8265 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.415 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.993 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1279 DOWN 0.0053 OR 53 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3423 DOWN .0003 OR 3 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.8015 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.565
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.14 UP .445 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3865 UP 0.0003 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.21
Brent OIL: 64.49
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 4.544
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 PTS to 5.054%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1 PTS AT 4.001%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.374 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.974 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.83 UP 0.50 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.92 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.35 DOWN 0 AND 61/100 roubles
GOLD $3290.45 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 33.03 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 1.29 OR 0.00%
NASDAQ 100 UP 32.11 PTS OR 0.15%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.06 DOWN 0,81 PTS OR 3.68%
GLD: $ 303.03 DOWN 2.71 PTS OR 0,89%
SLV/ $30.03 DOWN 0.48 PTS OR OR 1.57%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP .48 OR 1.57%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
Stocks Flat As Mystery Buyer Emerges For Bonds After “Budget-Busting Bill” Passes, Bitcoin Tags $112,000
Stocks Flat As Mystery Buyer Emerges For Bonds After “Budget-Busting Bill” Passes, Bitcoin Tags $112,000
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 08:11 PM
Today had all the hallmarks of a day when US interest rates would finally spiral out of control.
It all started just before 7am ET when we got news that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” Deficit-Busting reconciliation bill had passed the House by the slimmest of margins in a 215-214 vote. The initial kneejerk reaction was expected: with the CBO scoring the deal as adding about $500BN to the deficit annually over the next four years, a shortfall that would have to be plugged with even more debt, some $3-5 trillion over the next decade to be precise…
… yields understandably shot up, with the 10Y rising just above 4.62% and the 30Y blowing out to a remarkable 5.15%, just 3 basis points below the Nov 2023 high, beyond which it is smooth sailing all the way back to 30Y yields not seen since the summer of 2007…
… yields then curiously slumped as if a mystery buyer emerged out of nowhere.
That very bizarre “kneejerk to the kneejerk” reaction in yields helped settle the initial panic in stonks, and after initially sliding to session lows just – as yields hit session highs – spoos proceeded to meltup in an almost straight line up and to the right…
… a meltup which was catalyzed by another flood of retail buying of 0DTE calls/selling of 0DTE pulls, creating a powerful delta wave, which traded ahead of stocks all day and thus set the prevailing direction, as the chart from SpotGamma shows.
Taking a closer look at stocks, it was a choppy, rangebound session with the intraday band for S&P at just around 75bps while market volumes are headed for a WTD low of just 16.4B shares.
Looking below the surface, we find a pretty wide dispersion in sectors and themes with comm services up +1% despite 60% of the NDX in the red, and Utes down 180bps in response to the rate move.
We also saw a snap back in Goldman’s Momentum winners basket, GSCBHMOM, which is now up for the 8th time in 9 sessions!
Other themes that stuck out: Renewables (GSXURNEW, -4.6%), were down for the 2nd straight day and on track for worst 2-day loss since Liberation Day.
The collapse in solar stocks – especially Sunrun – was most notable, as the clean energy provisions in the GOP budget were “worse than feared.”
Also notable is that for the first time in a week, recession fears were not at the forefront, and the Cyclicals v Defensives basket (GSPUCYDE, +60bps) was in the green for the 1st time in 6 sessions.
Overall, it was a relatively calm day especially after yesterday’s furious post-auction selloff. According to Goldman PB, on Wednesday US stocks saw the largest net selling in 3 weeks (-1.1 SDs), driven by short sales outpacing long buys (3 to 1). HFs net sold US Industrials stocks for the 2nd straight session and at the fastest pace in a month, driven by short sales > long buys.
And as happens every single time, while hedge funds piled on shorts yesterday, today it was retail’s turn – via 0DTE options – to undo much of the move.
Speaking of Prime Brokerage activity, this is what Goldman’s desk wrote in its mid-day update:
- Overall activity levels are down -3% vs. the trailing two weeks, while mkt volumes are off -13% vs. the 10dma
- Floor skew is quite balanced with HF slightly better to buy vs. LOs slightly better for sale
- HFs are +2% better to buy, most of that skew is driven by demand in Macro Products but they lean better for sale in HCare, Comm Svcs and Industrials. Supply across Utes, Fins and Materials is balanced
- LOs are -2% better for sale. Supply concentrated in HCare and offsetting outsized demand in Comm Svcs
Elsewhere it was a relatively quiet day for commodities, with oil reversing much of this morning’s losses and Brent trading largely unchanged for the past two weeks.
Gold was more interesting, with the overnight breakout which pushed gold to a two week high of $3350 as China opened, reversed entirely and gold dropped about $60 from session highs.
Finally, no matter what happens to stocks or gold, bitcoin continues to crush every higher, and today we hit another record high when the digital currency rose just shy of $112,000, a new all time high.
As discussed previously, the entirety of this move is on the back of institutions, with retail refusing or simply forgetting to participate in the best asset class of all time.
Once we see retail interest ignited again, expect to see the price of bitcoin orders of magnitude higher.
BIG MORNING NEWS
As 10Y Yields Surge, At What Rate Do Stocks Break?
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 12:05 PM
US equity futures are fading in the pre-market, extending yesterday’s post-auction plunge…
…mirroring the rise in US Treasury yields this morning following the passage of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ through the Senate…
Chaos in the Japanese bond markets and hot UK inflation are not helping global yields, but the big question everyone wants to know is simple:
“when do equities care about bond yields”
The answer – according to Goldman Sachs – is NOW!
Historically, its speed that matters rather than the level.
Equities tend to care when yields rise ~2 std dev over 1 month.
This is roughly 60bps so around 4.75-4.80% on US10yr.
In other words, we are getting very close!!
More in the full Goldman Sachs note available to pro subscribers.
BIG AFTERNOON NEWS
THIS OUGHT TO BE FUN!!
Trump Admin Blocks Harvard From Enrolling International Students, Requires Current Foreign Students To Transfer ‘Or Lose Legal Status’
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 02:12 PM
Harvard is having a really bad year. From feds yanking billions in grants, to House Republicans alleging ties to the Chinese military, to President Trump threatening their tax-exempt status, to detained embryo-smuggling scientists (and most of that’s just this month), the university has now been blocked from enrolling international students – which constitute nearly 1/3 of Harvard admissions.
“I am writing to inform you that effective immediately, Harvard University’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification is revoked,” according to a letter sent to the university by DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, which they promptly shot over to the NY Times. The university has 72 hours to hand over requested information.
The decision followed a back-and-forth in recent days over the legality of a wide-ranging records request by the Department of Homeland Security.
According to Bloomberg, existing foreign students must transfer or lose their legal status, the notice reads.
This administration is holding Harvard accountable for fostering violence, antisemitism, and coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party on its campus.
It is a privilege, not a right, for universities to enroll foreign students and benefit from their higher tuition payments… pic.twitter.com/12hJWd1J86— Secretary Kristi Noem (@Sec_Noem) May 22, 2025
In April DHS threatened to block Harvard from enrolling international students if the university refused to hand over detailed records about the student body containing “relevant information” on student visa holders who have been involved in “known illegal” or “dangerous” activity.
“It is a privilege to have foreign students attend Harvard University, not a guarantee,” Noem wrote in an April letter. “The United States government understands that Harvard University relies heavily on foreign student funding from over 10,000 foreign students to build and maintain their substantial endowment.”
Harvard dug in last month following the Trump admin’s demands – with president Alan Garber saying in a statement “No government — regardless of which party is in power — should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue.”
Not So Fast?
Concurrently, a federal judge in California has blocked the Trump administration from terminating the legal status of international students nationwide while a court case challenging previous terminations is pending.
The order by U.S. District Judge Jeffrey S. White in Oakland bars the government from arresting or incarcerating the plaintiffs and similarly situated students; from transferring any of them outside the jurisdiction of their residence; from imposing any adverse legal effect on students and from reversing the reinstatement of the legal status until the case is resolved. Students can still be arrested for violent crimes. –AP
According to White, the government’s actions “wreaked havoc not only on the lives of Plaintiffs here but on similarly situated F-1 nonimmigrants across the United States and continues do so.”
Read Noem’s letter below (emphasis ours):
Harvard’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program Decertification
I am writing to inform you that effective immediately, Harvard University’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification is revoked.
As I explained to you in my April letter, it is a privilege to enroll foreign students, and it is also a privilege to employ aliens on campus. All universities must comply with Department of Homeland Security requirements, including reporting requirements under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program regulations, to maintain this privilege. As a result of your refusal to comply with multiple requests to provide the Department of Homeland Security pertinent information while perpetuating an unsafe campus environment that is hostile to Jewish students, promotes pro-llamas sympathies, and employs racist “diversity, equity, and inclusion” policies, you have lost this privilege.
The revocation of your Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification means that Harvard is prohibited from having any aliens on F- or J- nonimmigrant status for the 2025-2026 academic school year. This decertification also means that existing aliens on F- or J- nonimmigrant status must transfer to another university in order to maintain their nonimmigrant status.
This action should not surprise you and is the unfortunate result of Harvard’s failure to comply with simple reporting requirements.
On April 16, 2025, I requested records pertaining to nonimmigrant students enrolled at Harvard University, including information regarding misconduct and other offenses that would render foreign students inadmissible or removable. On April 30, 2025, Harvard’s counsel provided information that he represented as responsive to my request. It was not.
As a courtesy that Harvard was not legally entitled to, the Acting DHS General Counsel responded on my behalf and afforded Harvard another opportunity to comply. Harvard again provided an insufficient response.
Consequences must follow to send a clear signal to Harvard and all universities that want to enjoy the privilege of enrolling foreign students, that the Trump Administration will enforce the law and root out the evils of anti-Americanism and antisemitism in society and campuses.
If Harvard would like the opportunity of regaining Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification before the upcoming academic school year, you must provide all of the information requested below within 72 hours.
Please be advised that providing materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent information may subject you to criminal prosecution under 18 U.S.C. § 1001. Other criminal and civil sanctions may also apply.
I expect full and complete responses to the following requests:
- Any and all records, whether official or informal, in the possession of Harvard University, including electronic records and audio or video footage, regarding illegal activity whether on or off campus, by a nonimmigrant student enrolled in Harvard University in the last five years.
- Any and all records, whether official or informal, in the possession of Harvard University, including electronic records and audio or video footage, regarding dangerous or violent activity whether on or off campus, by a nonimmigrant student enrolled in Harvard University in the last five years.
- Any and all records, whether official or informal, in the possession of Harvard University, including electronic records and audio or video footage, regarding threats to other students or university personnel whether on or off campus, by a nonimmigrant student enrolled in Harvard University in the last five years.
- Any and all records, whether official or informal, in the possession of Harvard University, including electronic records and audio or video footage, regarding deprivation of rights of other classmates or university personnel whether on or off campus, by a nonimmigrant student enrolled in Harvard University in the last five years.
- Any and all disciplinary records of all nonimmigrant students enrolled in Harvard University in the last five years.
- Any and all audio or video footage, in the possession of Harvard University, of any protest activity involving a nonimmigrant student on a Harvard University campus in the last five years.
Developing…
USA DATA
US Existing Home Sales Weakest April Since Great Financial Crisis
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 10:16 AM
US existing home sales dropped 0.5% MoM in April (considerably worse than the +2.0% MoM rise expected), dropping to just 4.00MM sales SAAR, with sales down 3.1% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis
This is the weakest April sales pace since April 2009…
Sales declined in the West and Northeast, were unchanged in the South and improved in the Midwest.
High-end homes dominated the market’s gains…
“Pent-up housing demand continues to grow, though not realized,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Any meaningful decline in mortgage rates will help release this demand.”
Given the lags, there is a possibility that sales improve in the short-term as mortgage rates dropped…
One disappointing aspect of the report was that a welcome increase in home listings failed to spark homebuying – which Yun said on a call with reporters will result in a “slight downgrade” to his yearly sales forecast.
The inventory of existing homes for sale increased nearly 21% from a year ago to 1.45 million, the most for any April since 2020, NAR data show.
Greater supply is also failing to bring prices down. The median sales price climbed 1.8% from a year ago to $414,000, a record for the month of April and reflecting greater activity at the upper end.
However, Yun noted the size of the increase was the smallest since mid-2023, pointing to slowing price appreciation.
First-time buyers made up 34% of purchases, the highest share since July 2020
END
“Business Confidence Has Improved” – US PMIs Surged In May As New Orders JumP
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 09:55 AM
While regional Fed surveys and private sector sentiment measures have been screaming pessimism, ‘hard’ data has refused to bend the knee to TDS (or whatever establishment narrative is produced next).
This morning, the most important of the ‘soft’ survey data prints finally gave up and surged higher with both US Manufacturing & Services PMIs rising more than expected…
The Manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed to a three-month high of 52.3, fueled in part by the fastest growth in new orders in more than a year. Output expectations also rose to the highest since February.
The Services sector also jumped from 50.8 to 52.3 – two month highs.
The S&P Global flash May composite index of output rose 1.5 points to 52.1 after sliding a month earlier to the lowest since 2023, according to data released Thursday. Figures above 50 indicate growth, and the acceleration reflected expansion at both manufacturers and services providers.
“Business confidence has improved in May from the worrying slump seen in April, with gloom about prospects for the year ahead lifting somewhat thanks largely to the pause on higher rate tariffs,’’ Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.
While the figures indicate a welcome stabilization in both activity and sentiment, companies are having success passing on higher duties on imports of goods and materials.
A composite measure of prices charged accelerated for a third month to the highest since August 2022.
“At least some of the upturn in May can be linked to companies and their customers seeking to front-run further possible tariff-related issues, most notably the potential for future tariff hikes after the 90-day pause lapses in July,’’ Williamson said.
END
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
House Advances ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ To Floor After 20-Hour Marathon Negotiation
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 11:58 PM
Update (2358ET): After a long day of back-and-forth, the House Rules Committee late Wednesday night advanced President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ to the House floor after nearly 22 hours of negotiations.
The panel voted 8-4 to advance the measure, which included several last-minute changes designed to appease both blue-state (SALT) moderates, and hardline conservatives.
Leadership released a ‘manager’s amendment’ about 20 hours into the Rules Committee meeting – which raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 for individuals making under $500,000 – and implements enhanced Medicaid work requirements “no later than December 31, 2026.”
Other alterations were made regarding energy and environmental policies.
The bill now heads to the House floor, where the full body will debate the measure overnight in the hopes of passing it out of the lower chamber and sending it to the Senate by Memorial Day.
The legislation also extends the 2017 Trump tax cuts & boosts the debt limit by $4 trillion.
* * *
After weeks of turmoil and negotiations, House Republicans are inching closer to passing their sweeping domestic-policy package, anchored by a multi-trillion-dollar suite of tax cuts, as Speaker Mike Johnson races to finalize the legislation ahead of the Memorial Day recess.
Following a personal visit to Capitol Hill on Tuesday by President Donald Trump and a flurry of behind-the-scenes bargaining, House GOP leaders believe they are nearing a deal with key factions. The House Rules Committee convened late into the night and early morning hours Wednesday, preparing the reconciliation bill for floor action. The committee had only just concluded its first panel – which included the chairs and ranking members of the Oversight, Budget, Armed Services, and Financial Services Committees – shortly before 4:30 a.m. (and then returning to their coffins for a nap?).
The second panel will include top lawmakers from House Homeland Security, Judiciary, Natural Resources and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, while a third panel will include the chairs and ranking members from Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, Education and the Workforce & Ways and Means.
In total, 537 amendments have been submitted to Rules – none yet from Democrats. Notably, GOP leadership has still not released its long-awaited manager’s amendment, which will incorporate many of the compromises Johnson negotiated to appease internal party divisions, including revisions to SALT, Medicaid work requirements, and clean-energy tax credits, Punchbowl News reports.
Despite the complexity, Johnson is moving aggressively. He hopes to pass a rule and hold a full floor vote as soon as today – a schedule driven by his desire to meet the Memorial Day deadline, avoid attendance issues later in the week, and capitalize on rare momentum.
The legislative sprint follows a dramatic shift in tone after Trump met Tuesday morning with warring GOP factions and urged unity. Several Republican holdouts publicly maintained opposition afterward, but six senior Republicans involved in the talks said many were privately seeking off-ramps – policy concessions that would let them support the bill while still claiming political victories.
* * *
Best sellers at ZH Store last week:
- Steak Lover’s Bundle
- Grassfed Ground Beef Bundle
- Ultra Combo Wagyu Bundle
- Paper Street Tallow Set
- ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat
END
THIS IS A MUST MUST READ!!!
Goldman’s Shocking Admission: Only Offramp To Break Treasury-Stock Reflexive Selling Loop Means Buy Gold, Cryp
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 02:25 PM
In the aftermath of yesterday’s dismal 20Y auction, we summarized the ugly state of play (which ironically boils down to the sudden “realization” that bond markets are actually begging for higher tariffs and more fiscal space) and quoting DB’s George Saravelos, concluded that there are two solutions: i) either a “sharp revision” of the Big, Beautiful Bill to result in credibly tighter fiscal policy (i.e., much more revenue, which means higher taxes, which means recession if not depression as the tax cuts from the TCJA are eliminated and consumer spending implodes) which is clearly not happening now, or ii) dollar devaluation to make US Treasuries more attractive to foreign buyers (mostly Japan), who have traditionally stepped in to buy US paper during risk off episodes… and refuse to do so now.
Why? Because after being frozen in suspended animation with their heads in the sand, the bond vigilantes have finally woken up and looking at this chart, in complete and utter shock.
A few hours after our comments, Goldman’s head of Delta One trading, Rich Privorotsky echoed much of our thoughts, pointing out that after the 20yr auction tailed and sent risk lower across the board, “a breakout in yields is now appears problematic for equities.”
As Privo previously argued, the relationship between yields and equities is non-linear — beyond a certain threshold, rising yields begin to matter. And as we showed earlier today, we may be hitting that point, with 10-year Treasuries climbing into the high 4% range and 30-year yields now over 5%.
What’s driving this? As we noted earlier this week, since COVID, the U.S. has been running structural deficits of roughly 7% of GDP, with the number accelerating dramatically during Biden’s last two years in office (for reasons we also discussed in 2023).
While the upcoming fiscal bill may not meaningfully expand the deficit further (when netted against expected tariff revenue), although many – such as the CBO disagree …
… it also fails to address persistently high spending levels. This might seem academic — the fiscal party could have continued for several more years as long as everyone agreed to pretend it’s not an issue despite constant, relentless warnings from us and others — but there’s a compounding problem: a deteriorating trade relationship with key foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, who still hold about 25–30% of the outstanding debt.
That puts the U.S. in an untenable position, needing to entice households to absorb more debt issuance (which requires even higher rates), while the government resists meaningful spending cuts.
Which is why Privorotsky thinks the risk is that “the market finds itself in a reflexive loop around the budget.” And, echoing what we said last night, the Goldman Delta One trader notes that if spending continues and the economy remains resilient, pressure builds on the two key “exhaust valves”: long-end rates (which are less directly controlled by the Fed) and the U.S. dollar.
So what are the off-ramps? There are three:
- Reduce spending – Politically improbable absent a bond market revolt.
- Financial repression – Already underway in subtle forms: SLR relief, or tax incentives like ISA-style wrappers in the UK.
- Fed or Treasury intervention – When policymakers step in more forcefully, FX becomes the ultimate pressure release valve.
None of these are exactly easy, or point to dollar strength (although if we do see USD devaluation, it is only a matter of time before currency war emerges and we get every single central bank scrambling to outdevalue the Fed), and which is why yesterday we also showed where all the money that is not being recycled in US Treasuries is going in two non-traditional assets:
Which brings us to the punchline: as Privorotsky asks, “what are gold, crypto, and the outperformance of ex-U.S. equities signaling? Possibly that the market is beginning to price in these structural pressures, and the path to step 3 is being sketched in real time?”
Translation: Goldman finally agrees with what we have been saying since, oh… 2009, and certainly in the past 5 years.
So where does that leave US stocks?
After hearing all manner of bullish arguments over the past few days — “people aren’t long,” “the U.S. consumer has record wealth” — Privo says that it’s worth stepping back. Here’s why:
There has clearly been a lot of price-agnostic, technical demand driving markets in recent weeks, admittedly nets are not that high and in the absence of rising volatility..vol compression will drive equity demand. That said tariffs are now objectively a minimum of 10% globally and up to 30% on China. This isn’t catastrophic, but it’s equivalent to passing a new tax. Although some of this will be paid by foreign producers much if it will be indirectly be paid by U.S. consumers, and regressively so via higher prices. Maybe companies like Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) will absorb some of it via lower margins (not great for corporate profitability), but others are clearly raising prices or cutting forecasts:
“Nike is planning to raise prices of some products from next week”. (rtrs)
“Target slashed its annual sales forecast on Wednesday, after a surprisingly sharp fall in quarterly same-store sales, as customers pulled back on discretionary purchases due to ongoing worries about inflation and the economy” (rtrs)
“LVMH is warning that luxury demand remains soft, particularly in China, people familiar said.” (bbg)
The Goldman trader’s conclusion: “equities risk/reward looks poor. Tariffs = tax. Rates are higher, not lower… and It’s hard to argue that underlying growth will benefit, aside from temporary front-loading effects, which are now mostly behind us. Volatility has been reset to hard and has room to rise.”
More in the full note from Rich Privorotsky, available to pro subs.
END
Solar Stocks Plunge After House GOP Budget “Worse Than Deared” For Clean Energy
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 12:54 PM
The text that passed the House on a 215-214, party-line vote early Thursday is even less favorable to clean energy interests than a previous draft that industry groups widely panned, UtilityDive reported.
The bill terminates the 48E investment and 45Y production tax credits for non-nuclear clean energy projects placed in service after 2028, with no phaseout period. Projects must begin construction within 60 days of the bill’s enactment — likely later this year — to be eligible for the credits.
The version the House Ways and Means Committee released on May 12 stepped down the value of the 48E and 45Y credits over three years and did not include the imminent construction-start requirement, giving developers and asset owners more leeway to wait out lengthy waits for grid interconnection.
Combined with even tighter restrictions on foreign involvement in U.S. clean energy projects, the truncated eligibility window leaves a “near impossible” pathway for non-nuclear developers to qualify for the 48E and 45Y credits, Jeffries said. The foreign involvement restrictions apply to “foreign entities of concern” like China, which controls much of the upstream supply chain for batteries, electric motors and other clean energy equipment.
The bill also eliminates the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credit transferability framework for most clean energy projects. Experts say transferability, which previously enjoyed bipartisan support, expands project financing options for small and midsize energy developers.
Following an outcry from industry groups like the Nuclear Energy Institute, the House bill extends production and investment tax credit eligibility for advanced nuclear projects and power uprates of existing reactors that begin construction by 2028. It also extends a separate production credit for existing nuclear power plants through 2031 and preserves transferability for nuclear projects.
The practical effect of the nuclear carveout is unclear. Projects like the planned reactor restarts at Constellation Energy’s 835-MW Crane Clean Energy Center and Holtec International’s 800-MW Palisades plant would likely qualify, but many greenfield projects are not expected to begin reactor construction until later this decade. For example, the Tennessee Valley Authority earlier this week began a more than two-year federal permitting process for a small modular reactor that it expects to begin building in late 2028.
The biggest surprise in the latest version of the bill is what Jeffries called the “intentional targeting” of the residential solar sector. The previous version of the bill quickly terminated the 25D tax credit for customer-owned residential solar installations while preserving it for installations leased by companies like Sunrun, the country’s biggest third-party solar and energy storage leasing enterprise.
“This short-lived advantage to [residential solar leases] was seemingly corrected, with new text now ‘leveling the playing field’ by targeting all future residential solar originations, whether leased or owned,” Jeffries said.
Shares of Sunrun fell about 40% in early Thursday trading; stocks of other solar companies also tumbled.
Clean energy advocates and trade groups said the bill would devastate an industry driving the United States’ manufacturing boom while increasing customers’ utility bills and threatening the stability of the electric grid.
“This unworkable legislation is willfully ignorant of the fact that deploying solar and storage is the only way the U.S. power grid can meet the demand of American consumers, businesses and innovation,” the Solar Energy Industries Association said in a statement.
The head of Advanced Energy United, another clean energy trade group, called the legislation a “meat cleaver” in a statement noting that solar, wind, storage and other “advanced energy” added 50 GW to the U.S. grid in 2024 and produced about $400 billion in domestic revenues.
The House bill “abruptly dismantles bipartisan, long-standing tax policy that has catalyzed billions in private investment for affordable, reliable energy while sparking a rebirth of manufacturing across America,” AEU President and CEO Heather O’Neill said. “If enacted as written, this bill will weaken our power system and send shockwaves throughout the U.S. economy by raising electricity prices, killing tens of thousands of jobs and ceding energy dominance to China.”
In a report released before the House bill passed, the American Clean Energy Association identified more than 800 manufacturing facilities involved in the U.S. clean energy supply chain. Seventy-three percent of those are located in “Republican states,” it said.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON/
Trump Navigating Base’s Opposition To Interventionism With Iran Talks: Victor Davis Hanson
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 11:30 AM
Authored by Ryan Morgan and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,
As President Donald Trump continues negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear aspirations, historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Victor Davis Hanson believes the president is preparing his non-interventionist supporters for the possibility of a more forceful confrontation in the Middle East.
On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump frequently touted his record of avoiding new wars during his first term and emphasized his plans to quickly resolve ongoing conflicts, like the one in Ukraine. At the same time, Trump has described his foreign policy approach as one of “peace through strength,” and he has been willing to threaten military action to press his agenda.
In March, as the U.S. president began his push for a new deal restricting Iran’s nuclear program, he warned, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing.”
In a recent interview with Jan Jekielek, host of EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,” Hanson described Trump as having to thread the needle with how he handles his next steps with Iran.
“The MAGA covenant he ran on said no optional Middle East wars, no foreign entanglements, and it’s always better to jawbone than to go to war,” he said.
While the Trump administration has joined successive rounds of indirect talks with Iranian representatives, Hanson assessed that Israeli leaders feel the current moment is a good window of opportunity to strike Iran.
Even if the negotiations don’t result in a deal, Hanson said Trump could use the opportunity to acclimate his base to the Israeli point of view.
“He’s saying to Israel, ‘Let’s just get six or seven months of negotiation … We‘ll negotiate to the point where they have to shut up or put up. And if you’re right … then we have a case to be made to our MAGA base.’”
Syria
Hanson assessed Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria as an important opportunity to further isolate Tehran and diminish its influence across the Middle East.
Assad fled the country in December, amid a surprise offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist faction that began as Al Qaeda’s Syrian offshoot, and which the U.S. government still considers a foreign terrorist organization.
After seizing Damascus, a rebel-led council named Ahmed al-Sharaa—the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—as president of a new self-styled Syrian transitional government. The council has named other Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham members to top leadership positions in this transitional government.
Since taking power, Sharaa has tried to present himself as more of a moderate than his past would suggest. In turn, the United States has shown reduced hostility.
In President Joe Biden’s last weeks in office, his administration retracted a $10 million bounty against Sharaa, opening the way for then-Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf to meet with the ascendant Syrian warlord.
This month, Trump announced he would retract sanctions against Syria “to give them a chance at greatness.” Trump met with Sharaa during his Middle East tour last week and announced he was considering normalizing ties with Syria’s new leadership.
Trump also urged Sharaa to join the Abraham Accords, a framework for normalizing relations between Israel and its various Muslim neighbor states.
Despite Sharaa’s past, Hanson assessed Turkey, Israel, Syria’s Kurdish population, and the neighboring Arab states all prefer him to Assad, and indicated that Trump may feel the same.
“There may be terrorists, but they may be directed in other directions. I don’t know. But all of these interests felt that it was superior to the Assad regime. And most of the interests were pro-American,” he said.
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 22, 2025 Issue 7494 | Independent View of the News |
| A junk-rated US Treasury? Markets ‘care’ about that Using credit default swaps pricing as an input, S&P Global’s Capital IQ model puts the U.S. sovereign credit rating 6 notches lower than its current grade – all the way down to BBB+ – barely clinging to investment grade status… CDS pricing may currently be distorted by the risk of a technical default due to the potential for another politically toxic battle over the self-imposed debt ceiling. But the damage to credit quality is real and has been underlined routinely by all the major credit ratings firms… https://www.zawya.com/en/news/insights/a-junk-rated-us-treasury-markets-care-about-that-mike-dolan-ja97ey5o There is no denying that the US financial condition is alarming. But recent US debt hysteria is clearly political. Where were the warnings when The Big Guy mushroomed the debt? Target badly misses on earnings, slashes guidance as it battles DEI backlash and reinvigorated Walmart – First quarter net sales: -2.8% year over year to $23.8 billion, vs. estimates for $24.35 billion Diluted earnings per share: -35.9% year over year to $1.30, vs. estimates for $1.65… Comparable sales: -3.8% year over year, vs. 1.84% estimate… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-badly-misses-on-earnings-slashes-guidance-as-it-battles-dei-backlash-and-reinvigorated-walmart-103038522.html The necessary equity retrenchment proceeded for a second straight session, abetted by reports that Israel will soon strike Iran’s nuclear assets. Bonds declined moderately; gold, cryptos, and Fangs rallied sharply. Google, +4.57% and Nvidia +2.07% near 12:20 ET led Fangs/Mag 7 higher. Alphabet Gains After Adding More Ai Functions to Search – BBG The company… will offer “AI mode” in search to all US users… stock rose as much as 5.6%… Volvo Cars and Google expand partnership with Gemini integration and accelerated automotive innovation – This includes Google Gemini… https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/pressreleases/349455/volvo-cars-and-google-expand-partnership-with-gemini-integration-and-accelerated-automotive-innovati US $16B Auction of 20-year bonds 5.047% vs 5.035% WI; Indirect Bid 69%, Direct 14.1% (13:00 ET) USMs declined to a low of 110 24/32 (-1 26/32) after the disappointing 20-year auction. The US 30-year hit 5.089%; the 20-year hit 5.119%, the highest yield since November 2023. The 10-year hit 4.60%. ESMs and stocks tumbled after bonds sank on the poor 20-year auction. ESMs opened modestly lower on Tuesday night and traded sideways until they broke lower after 23:00 ET. A plodding decline took ESMs to 5905.00 at 6:25 ET. A 5-wave rally took ESMs to a daily high of 5958.25, +52.25 from low, at 12:50 ET. After the results of the 20-year Auction were released at 13:00 ET, ESMs plunged to a daily low of 5867.00 at 13:29 ET. After a bounce to 5906.75 at 13:39 ET, ESMs retreated to 5871.00 at 14:21 ET. An A-B-C decline dropped ESMs to 5847.75 at 15:26 ET. The last-hour rally lifted ESMs to 5876.00 at 15:41 ET. ESMs fell to 5856.75 at 16:00 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Fangs were relatively strong due to hype over Google’s new AI features. Oil and gasoline declined modestly, debunking the angst over Israel striking Iran. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered; stocks sank; the dollar declined sharply; gold & crypto rallied sharply. DJT haters overhyped Trumpageddon Tariff angst; but US debt is a legitimate anxiety. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are equities doing a natural retrenchment or commencing another down leg? Will the US bond market debacle torpedo Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5871.30 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5938.37; 5830.91 After the Dem/MSM-hated Nixon won reelection in a record landslide in 1972, the DJIA topped on January 11, 1973. It then sank until August 2, 1973. A sharp rally then took the DJIA from 851.90 to 987.06 (+15.9%) on October 26, 2073. The DJIA jumped above its 200-DMA on September 25, 2073. It fell back below its 200-DMA on November 2, 1973. It traded sideways until May and then plunged to 587.61 on October 3, 19874. After a solid bounce, the DJIA bottomed at 577.60 on 12/6/74. The S&P 500 Index is behaving similarly to the DJIA (the equity benchmark then). S&P 500 Index with 200-DMA The DJIA, December 1972 to May 1974 with 200-DMA John Deere commits $20 billion to U.S. manufacturing amid criticism over overseas production Major projects include new and expanded factories in North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, and Tennessee. https://ruralradio.com/kneb-am/news/john-deere-commits-20-billion-to-u-s-manufacturing-amid-criticism-over-pverseas-production/ @DOGE__news: Andrew Cuomo says Democrats are ruining U.S. cities: “We get absolutely nothing done and you see a deterioration of conditions, and people say why? It’s all Democrats who are in charge. There’s no one else to blame.” https://x.com/DOGE__news/status/1925221295840780363 Today – In Wednesday’s letter we wrote: The First-Hour Indicator could be useful. A breach of the first hour high or low could provide an important clue as to the session’s direction. The S&P 500 Index low on Tuesday, 5909.26, was higher than Monday’s low (5895.69). These levels will be key support… The equity carnage on Wednesday, due to bonds’ tumble, created this important question: Are equities doing a natural retrenchment or commencing another down leg? We opined early this week that due to the calendar (Memorial Day Weekend) this week was the time for equities to retrench. Next week performance gaming should be a high priority because beaucoup big-name hedge funds and investors missed the equity rally and are harboring poor May performance. Barring news, bonds should call the tune today. Once again, the First-Hour Indicator should be useful. ESMs are +6.50; NQMs are +23.50; and USMs are-6/32 at 20:10 ET. Expected Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 230k, Continuing Claims 1.883m; Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.25; May S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.8, Services 51, Composite 50.3: April Existing Home Sales 4.1m; May KC Fed Mfg. Activity -5 Fed Speakers: Richmon Pres Barkin, 8 ET, NY Pres Williams 14:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5574; 100-day MA: 5770; 150-day MA: 5825; 200-day MA: 5767 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,013; 100-day MA: 42,300; 150-day MA: 42,689; 200-day MA: 42,318 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5844.61 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5447.29 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5758.34 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5934.53 triggers a buy signal @2waytvapp: Ed Martin, a senior Trump Justice Department official, says he started investigating the Biden White House’s use of the autopen when he was recently interim U.S. attorney for Washington D.C. “The gatekeepers were Klain and Anita Dunn and Bob Bauer, and those three were really the dominant characters in the White House,” he says. On Tuesday, Donald Trump said that Biden officials were governing in the president’s stead while Joe Biden was “cognitively impaired” and that their governance by autopen was “TREASON at the highest level.” https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1924968543613026501 @JackPosobiec: Imagine if you were a staffer who had access to Biden’s autopen and told people you could offer anyone a pardon…for a price. Supreme Court restores Maine lawmaker’s voting abilities following ban over Facebook post about trans athlete https://trib.al/SiIyE8r @Heminator: Two SCOTUS justices just voted that it was OK to strip an elected representative’s right to vote in the legislature b/c the opposing party didn’t like her speech. Is there a single example of a conservative justice in recent decades doing something close to this egregious? No. The fact I don’t know whether Sotomayor and KBJ are stupid, malicious, or some combination of the two, seems to be a real problem. @JohnRLottJr: In a 7-2 vote, SCOTUS ruled Maine’s Laurel Libby should be able vote in state legislature. Justice Jackson in the minority wrote: “the applicants have not asserted that there are any significant legislative votes scheduled in the upcoming weeks” Srsly? Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wants the Supreme Court to determine whether particular votes in a legislature are “significant.” Justice Sonia Sotomayor also indicated, without more, that she would have denied Libby’s request. https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/05/supreme-court-requires-clerk-to-count-votes-by-lawmaker-censured-for-social-media-post-about-transgender-athlete/ @JimDaBink: (SCOTUS Justice) Kagen says “all the law this court has ever made”? Was it a slip of the tongue? Did she “say the quiet part out loud”? Does “Justice” Kagan believe that the courts make laws? SCOTUS determines constitutionality of… The Legislature makes the law. https://x.com/JimDaBink/status/1924888169993965798 Trump confronts Ramaphosa (SA Pres) with footage of South African leaders calling for genocide The footage included Malema leading a crowd in a rendition of “Kill the Boer” a song advocating for explicit racial violence… https://justthenews.com/world/africa/trump-confronts-ramaphosa-footage-south-african-leaders-calling-genocide @BryanDeanWright: Democrats and global Leftists hate this video because it shows their comrades in South Africa’s EFF Party. It’s a movement built on Marxism and the slaughter of “the Oligarchy” — aka white people in SA. Good on the White House for shoving this truth in South Africa’s face. @DailySignal: Trump Destroys NBC Reporter Diverting Attention from White South African Refugees – Immediately after @POTUS Donald Trump played videos of South African politician Julius Malema calling to “kill the white man,” an NBC reporter decided to ask an unrelated question about the Qatari jet gifted to the Air Force instead… https://x.com/DailySignal/status/1925245754588676235 @paulsperry_: DOJ insiders say Weaponization Working Group Director Ed Martin is preparing to blast out at least 50 investigatory letters targeting officials who weaponized law enforcement/govt against Trump and his advisers in Russiagate, the impeachments, J6 and the Mar-a-Lago raid. @nicksortor: Rep. Nancy Mace has filed to EXPEL Rep. LaMonica McIver after she was caught on camera and CHARGED with assaulting ICE officers. TAKE IT UP, Speaker Johnson! Democrats need to FINALLY learn they can’t just do whatever the hell they want and get away with it. | |
SWAMP NEWS
if true//quite a bombshell and treasonous
‘A Quarter of a Mil’ – Rep Burchett’s Bombshell Autopen Claim Says We’ll Find That Autopen Staffers Sold Pardons
END
UNBELIEVABLE!!
A Judge Of Her Peers? Judge Dugan Assigned A Judge Previously Rebuked For Political Commen
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 10:05 AM
Five years ago, I wrote about a federal judge who, in my view, had discarded any resemblance of judicial restraint and judgment in a public screed against Republicans, Donald Trump, and the Supreme Court. The Wisconsin judge represented the final death of irony: a jurist who failed to see the conflict in lashing out at what he called judicial bias in a political diatribe that would have made MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell blush.
His name is Lynn Adelman.
I was wrong in 2020. Irony is very much alive.
This week, a judge was randomly selected to preside at the trial of Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan. A critic of Trump’s immigration policies, Dugan is accused of obstructing federal law enforcement and facilitating the escape of an unlawful immigrant.
The judge assigned to the Dugan case? You guessed it. Lynn Adelman, 85.
A judge is expected to come to a case like this one without the burden of his own baggage.
Judge Adelman is carrying more baggage than Amtrak in Wisconsin.
The selection of Adelman shows how political commentary by judges undermines the legitimacy of the court system. Now, in a case that has divided the nation, the public will have to rely on a judge who discarded his own obligations as a judge to lash out at conservatives, Trump, and conservative jurists.
Adelman was a long-standing Democratic politician who tried repeatedly and unsuccessfully to run for Congress during his 20-year tenure in the Wisconsin Senate. For critics, Adelman never set aside his political agenda after President Bill Clinton nominated him for the federal bench.
Adelman was sharply rebuked for ignoring controlling Supreme Court precedent to rule in favor of a Democratic challenge over voting identification rules just before a critical election. Adelman blocked the law before the election despite a Supreme Court case issued years earlier in Crawford v. Marion County Election Board, 553 U.S. 181 (2008), rejecting a similar challenge.
The United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit issued a stinging reversal, explaining to Adelman that in “our hierarchical judicial system, a district court cannot declare a statute unconstitutional just because he thinks (with or without the support of a political scientist) that the dissent was right and the majority wrong.”
Adelman, however, was apparently undeterred. In 2020, he wrote a law review article for Harvard Law & Policy Review, titled “The Roberts Court’s Assault on Democracy.”
Adelman attacked what he described as a “hard-right majority” that is “actively participating in undermining American democracy.” He also struck out at Trump as “an autocrat… disinclined to buck the wealthy individuals and corporations who control his party.”
Adelman was later admonished by the Civility Committee for the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals for his public political attacks as “inconsistent with a judge’s duty to promote public confidence in the integrity and impartiality of the judiciary and as reflecting adversely on the judge’s impartiality.”
The costs of such extrajudicial commentary became vividly clear this week. Judge Dugan is being called a “hero” by Democratic politicians and pundits for helping an individual evade federal arrest. At least one judge has pledged to do the same in her courtroom. On the other side, many are appalled by Dugan’s conduct as fundamentally at odds with the role of a jurist in either the state or federal system.
There are weighty issues in the case and the public has a right to expect a fair trial with a judge who will not be swayed by his own political viewpoints. Dugan already had the advantage of a trial before a jury taken from one of the most liberal districts in the country. She will now have a judge who was himself sanctioned for political statements and reversed for ignoring controlling precedent.
This problem is growing within our courts, including at the Supreme Court. I recently wrote about public commentary by Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan that created distractions this month in cases before the Supreme Court. The public has a right to expect more from jurists. The price of the ticket to the bench is to set aside one’s political agenda and political commentary. When you don that robe, you must discard your politics. Some, however, seem to cling to both the bias and the bench.
The message for the public could not be worse this week. In a case involving a Democratic judge accused of discarding basic judicial principles, a random selection produced a Democratic judge reversed for discarding basic judicial principles.
For conservatives, these cases reaffirm a view of a dual-track legal system. Lawfare has been raging in blue cities like New York where President Trump faced judges denounced for their political associations or past commentary. In Washington, Trump was assigned a federal judge who previously appeared to lament that Trump was not a criminal defendant in her courtroom. She was then randomly assigned Trump’s case after he was charged by Special Counsel Jack Smith.
We have the greatest legal system in the world, but it cannot survive long without the faith and support of the public. That is why judicial ethics rules bar not just conflicts of interest but the appearance of a conflict of interest. The perception of political bias robs our courts of their inherent legitimacy and authority for citizens.
Just as Adelman lashed out at most of the Supreme Court as lacking credibility, he can hardly expect conservatives and Republicans to find him a credible choice in the Dugan case. That is why I was wrong five years ago. Irony is not entirely dead. It is just uniformly ignored.
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
