JUNE 12//MOST PRECIOUS METALS SKYROCKET ON EXPECTED ISRAELI/USA ATTACK ON IRAN//GOLD CLOSED UP $55.75 TO $2278.75 WITH SILVER UP ONLY 11 CENTS TO $3626 HELD BACK BY THE HUGE T.A.S CONTRACTS INITIATED AT THE COMEX//PLATINUM IS UP AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF $18.25 TO $1283.20 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $17.70//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND ZERO HEDGE DOES A GREAT COMMENTARY ON PLATINUM AND ON OIL//CHINA RESUMES ITS OIL IMPORTS OF ETHANE MAKING PLASTICS BUT STILL NO EXPORTS ON RARE EARTHS//UK THREATHENS ABANDONMENT OF ICC BECAUSE OF THEIR RULING ON ISRAEL//ISRAEL VS IRAN/ISRAEL VS HAMAS/ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY UPDATES//NEWS OF THE MEDICAL FRONT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEWS ADDICTS ETC//IN USA JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE/PPI LOWERS//UPDATES ON THE LOS ANGELES RIOTS//ANOTHER BOEING JET CRASHES BUT STILL TIME IT IS PILOT ERROR//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 200 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 1230 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 719 407 C STRAITS FINANCIAL 2 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 30 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 322 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 98 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 10 16 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 62 905 C ADM 63
TOTAL: 1,376 1,376 MONTH TO DATE: 24,564
JPMORGAN STOPPED 98/1376
JUNE
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024: 1376 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 137,600 OZ or 4.2799 TONNES
total notices so far: 24,564 contracts for 2,456,400 OR 76.404 tonnes)
FOR JUNE
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SILVER NOTICES: 81 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 405,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3149 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 15.745 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $55.75 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.11 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE DERIVATIVE MESS
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.550 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1860 CONTRACTS TO 176,141 AND CONTINUING ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.45 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AND WE FINALLY HAVE THE PIERCING OF $34.40 TO 34.50 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3555 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 1695 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE, WEDNESDAY. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $36.11. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 4056 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 1695 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR MEGA MEGA HUGE 4056 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THURSDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 4158 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.45.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH LAST WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY AS SILVER PRICE ROCKETED PAST THE $34.40 BARRIER! . THE PRICE OF SILVER FINISHED TRADING AT $36.56 AS WE WILL NOW HEAD FOR THE ALL TIME HIGH OF $50.00
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A MEGA HUGE 4056 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES. THUS EXPECT TO HAVE 1 MORE HUGE TA.S. ISSUANCES IF THEY FOLLOW THE SAME MODUS OPERANDI IN PREVIOUS GOLD ISSUANCES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.45) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 3555 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A 1695 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 9.90 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 155,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.810 MILLION OZ!!
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JUNE: 9.90 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S 155,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = 15.810 MILLION OZ.
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A 1650 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI) MEGA HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 4056 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 140 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAY(S), total 8718 contracts: OR 43.590 MILLION OZ (968 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 43.590 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 43.590 MILLION OZ (NOTICE EFP ISSUANCE GETTING LARGER
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RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1860 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.45 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A 1695 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1695 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND NOW JUNE: INITIAL 9.90 MILLION OZ PLUS 0.155 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP = 15.810 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (4056 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (MONDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 81 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 405,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6133 OI CONTRACTS TO 423,276 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE AN EXTREMELY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A SMALL 172 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (6163 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.30 IN PRICE// WEDNESDAY///.
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH
/ WE HAD A $1.30 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6708 OI CONTRACTS (20.86 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE DURING THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF MAY, AND THROUGHOUT EACH AND EVERY DAY MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE JUNE CONTRACT MONTH….. A SMALLISH 62.534 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S HUGE 4.9206 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.810 TONNES!!. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 575 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 423,276/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 176,141 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6708 CONTRACTS WITH 6163 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 575 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6708 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1384 CONTRACTS
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(575) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 6163 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6708 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) WEAK INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JUNE AT 62.524TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 4.9206 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.810 TONNES./
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JUNE CONTRACT AT 77.810 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A $1.30 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THAT GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6940 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY BUT SMALLER FOR JUNE!
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (1550 CONTRACTS)/// FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1384 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 14,011 CONTRACTS OR 1,401,100 OZ OR 43.58 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1556 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 43.58 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 43.58 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 43/58 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1860 CONTRACTS OI TO 176,744 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1695 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 1695 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 900 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1860 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1695 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3555 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.45 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 17.775 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.34 PTS OR 0.01%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 331.56 PTS OR 1.36%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 248.10 PTS OR 0.65% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1825 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1845/ Oil UP TO 67.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.05 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1825 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1845 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6173 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 423,276 OI WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.30 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (575 ). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION
THE CME ANNOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY WAS RECORDED AT 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE GETTING QUITE ANTSY OF GETTING ITS GOLD BACK.
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST FIVE MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED SO FAR!!
DETAILS ON JUNE COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6708 CONTRACTS WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF MAY, AND JUNE CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FAIR AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1384 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , INITIAL STANDING IS RECORDED AT 62.534 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S 4.9206 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 77.812 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FOR THE MONTH: 15.276 TONNES
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JUNE: 72.886 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 32+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 225 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 575 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 575 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 575 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED, 1384 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL MAY AND JUNE
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!
STANDING LAST 6 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: INITITAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 10.3559 NET TONNES OF TOTAL QUEUE JUMP PREVIOUS PLUS 4.9206 TONNES TODAY = 77.810 TONNES (0 EX FOR RISK)
THIS IS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD!!
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING/JUNE CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $1.30/ /) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////THURSDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JUNE TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
ANALYSIS JUNE DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JUNE COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 20.82 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE FIRST RECORDED AT 62.534 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/MAY 30. TO THIS WE ADD WEDNESDAY NIGHT’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 58,200 OZ OR 4.9206 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING FOR JUNE GOLD ADVANCES TO 77.810.
ALL OF THIS QUITE SMALL STANDING FOR JUNE WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.30
WE HAD A SMALL 172 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6708 CONTRACTS OR 670800 0Z (20.86 TONNES)
i) Out of Brinks 106,082.305 oz ii) Out of JPMorgan 23,789.378 oz iii) Out of Malca 102,336.633 oz (3183 kilobars)
total withdrawal; 232,213.316 oz (7.22 tonnes)
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRIES
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
we have 1 customer entry
i) Into JPMorgan: 92,498.427 oz
(2877 kilobars)
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No of oz served (contracts) today
1376 notice(s) 137,600 OZ 4.2799 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
452 contracts 45200 OZ 1.405 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
24,564 notices 2,456,400 oz 76.404 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 1 customer entries
we have 1 customer entry
i) Into JPMorgan: 92,498.427 oz
(2877 kilobars)
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withdrawals:
3 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks 106,082.305 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan 23,789.378 oz
iii) Out of Malca 102,336.633 oz (3183 kilobars)
total withdrawal; 232,213.316 oz (7.22 tonnes)
adjustments: 1//Brinks
dealer to customer; 95,874.282 oz ( 2982 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE STANDS AT 1828 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1369 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 213 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 1582 CONTRACTS FOR 158,200 OZ OR 4.9206 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT 62.534 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.810 TONNES
JULY LOST 74 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 6505
AUGUST GAINED 2693 CONTRACTS UP TO 319,466
We had 1376 contracts filed for today representing 137,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1376 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 98 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,564 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (1828 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1376 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,501,600 OZ OR 77.810 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 77.810 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (24,564 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JUNE (1828 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1376 x 100 oz) which equals 2,343,300 OZ OR 72.886 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 72.886 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.: 77.886 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..JUNE DID NOT FOLLOW FEB AND APRIL’S LEAD!!
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 214.825million oz/498.20 oz million or 43.17%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 161.938 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 498.200 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2025 OI: 94 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 129 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 160 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 31 CONTRACTS OR 0.155 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP IN ORDER TO TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JULY LOST 6847 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 93,632
AUGUST GAINED 153 CONTRACTS TO 737
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 160 or 800,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNEDAY 97,563 huge//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3149 X5,000 oz = 15.745 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (94) AND the number of notices served upon today (81 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2025 contract month: (3149) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE(94) minus number of notices served upon today (81)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE contract month equating to 15.810 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 15.810 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of JUNE.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 167.862million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
JUNE 2 WITH GOLD UP $80.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD UP $22.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.71 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.61 TONNES
MAY 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.46 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD UP $69.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.89TONNES
MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.88 TONNES
MAY 21 WITH GOLD UP $28.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.60 TONNES
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.03 TONNES
MAY 19 WITH GOLD UP $46.65 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES
MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 935.91 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $1.58/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.773 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.38/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.375 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.091 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.65/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.784 MILLION OZ
MAY 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.17/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
### **Key Features of SGX Gold Futures** – **Physical Delivery**: Both contracts settle with physical gold (unlike many cash-settled alternatives). – **Asian Trading Hours**: Optimized for APAC time zones, overlapping with London/NY sessions. – **Liquidity**: – `GLD` ranks among Asia’s most active gold futures. – Open interest consistently exceeds 250,000 contracts (2025 average). – **Clearing**: Central counterparty clearing via SGX Derivatives Clearing.
### **Why Traders Use SGX Gold Futures** – **Hedging**: Asian jewelers, miners, and banks manage USD gold price risk. – **Arbitrage**: Spread opportunities against COMEX (New York) or TOCOM (Tokyo). – **Extended Hours**: React to global macro events (e.g., Fed announcements) during Asian evenings.
Here’s a detailed comparison of **SHFE Silver Futures volumes** (standard 15kg vs. mini 1kg contracts) for **June 1–12, 2025**, versus the same period in **2024**, using official Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) data. All figures are sourced from [SHFE’s public statistics](http://www.shfe.com.cn/en/statements/datadaily/).
—
### **SHFE Silver Futures: Standard vs. Mini Contracts** *(June 1–12, 2025 vs. June 1–12, 2024)*
### **Key Observations** 1. **Standard Contract (`AG`)** – Moderate growth (**+8.2% YoY**), reflecting steady institutional demand. – Dominates liquidity (63% of total silver futures volume on SHFE in 2025).
2. **Mini Contract (`AGM`)** – Explosive growth (**+134.1% YoY**), indicating surging retail participation. – Share of total silver volume rose from **21% (2024) → 37% (2025)**. – Driven by: – Lower margin requirements (~1/15th of standard contract). – Accessibility for small investors.
3. **Market Context** – **June 2025 silver volatility**: Avg. daily price swing of **±3.2%** (vs. ±2.5% in 2024), driven by USD moves and industrial demand shifts. – **Mini contract popularity**: Aligns with SHFE’s push to attract retail traders (launched in 2022). – **Mini contracts** are reshaping silver futures trading in Asia, making hedging accessible to SMEs and retail. – **SHFE silver liquidity** now rivals TOCOM (Tokyo) and MCX (Mumbai) in Asian hours.
The British economy is declining at an increasing pace. The chancellor’s spending review on Wednesday revealed the impossibility of mixing politics with economic reality
Allister Heath in an op-ed for the Daily Telegraph today described it best:
“Britain has grown lazy, feckless, and fat. We are addicted to bread and circuses, as long as others pay for them. We don’t work hard enough, safe in the knowledge that “society” owes us a living. We crave free stuff paid for by taxing the rich…”
The truth is that Heath’s opening salvo describes a position the chancellor has inherited. Britain was going to perdition anyway: the Labour government is merely accelerating the process. And what’s happening to the UK has lessons for the wider world, because in common with the UK all major advanced economies (perhaps excluding China and Russia) are going in the same direction.
It has been alarming to observe developments since Labour won its landslide last year. Its electoral success was borne out of disillusionment with the previous government. But there’s a more important point behind it: the addiction to bread and circuses and craving for more free stuff was what was promised by Labour. Voters are not interested in trivia, such as how it was all to be paid for.
The politics of it denies any attempt to reduce government spending. Even Farage’s Reform Party has started to promise more government spending, targeting Labour voters successfully and causing the chancellor to promise “investment” — in other words, jobs in Labour constituencies.
Clearly, it is impossible for UK politicians to reduce government spending. The problem is widespread. Indeed, this is what Elon Musk has woken up to in America. Macron in France cannot do any cost-cutting without provoking outrage and riots. Even so-called right wing administrations cannot do it, with Merz in Germany promising to lift the cap on government debt. Spain has doubled down on socialism under Pedro Sanchez of the Socialist Workers’ Party.
The acceleration of Britain’s decline is despite the Treasury’s sensible insistence that budgets must be balanced. But its advice to the chancellor is that of bean counters. It is up to the chancellor to balance the books. She has tried to do this by increasing taxes to offset her socialist spending. The consequences are that revenue is now declining, even if this is yet to be reflected in the statistics.
The government is heavily dependent on taxes from high earners, with the top 1% of earners estimated to pay 30% of total income tax. They are leaving the country in droves. The move to tax non-domiciles on worldwide earnings has led to them moving away to friendlier jurisdictions. Combined with this wealth leaving, punitive stamp duties have frozen the residential property market, leading to a large shortfall to anticipated stamp duty revenue and capital gains tax receipts.
The increase in the minimum wage rate coupled with employers’ national insurance contribution is already leading to increasing unemployment, a problem which is bound to increase. And with respect to corporation tax, businesses up and down the country are struggling and going bust, which means corporation tax revenues will fall short.
Yet, while paying lip service to balancing the budget, the chancellor is still more motivated by spending increases on bread and circuses.
We can see how this will play out. By the time of the autumn statement when taxes and spending for the following fiscal year are determined, the shortfall in revenue will have become obvious. In raising yet more taxes on the rich in an attempt to cover it (a favourite for all socialist chancellors) while refusing to cut public sector spending there will be a sterling crisis. Gilt yields will soar, making the chancellor’s problem even worse.
She is bound to blame events beyond her control. After all, it’s never socialism’s fault. We can be certain that G7 nations will be in recession. The credit bubble will have popped, and Trump’s tariff tantrums will have killed international trade. Britain’s tax revenues and those of other G7 nations will decline even more, while welfare commitments rise. The problem will be most acute in Britain, France, and Spain.
But traps on government debt will be sprung on all G7 nations. Markets will have to adjust bond yields accordingly. But when a debtor cannot even cover the interest rate and that rate continues to rise, it simply defaults. No one will want their currencies. This looming problem is so obvious, that those who refuse to see it stand to lose everything.
Get out of credit and into real money without counterparty risk — that much should be obvious.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS DISPATCHES
4./On LFTV, Andrew Maguire LIVE FROM THE VAULT 226
go to youtube/live from the vault kinesis/226
Episode 226
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:platinum
How Much Higher Can Platinum Go: “It Feels Like Someone Is Loading Up On A Flat Price Position”
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 – 10:09 PM
Yesterday, in “What’s Behind The Recent Surge In Platinum, And Will It Continue“, we not only explained in detail what is going on both at the technical and fundamental level, but also answered in the affiramtive and why – yes, it the surge will continue. One day later the surge has indeed continued, and having decisively broken $1200 earlier this week, platinum spiked another $100, touching a session high of $1285, and is now just dollars away from the post-covid high above $1300.
For some perspective on what comes next, we go to Goldman materials specialist James McGeoch who writes today that having cut through $1200 like a hot knife through butter, Platinum is now clearly targeting $1300, and even though the precious metal is overbought here, it is going to test some resolve to go against the flow.
As McGeoch adds, “I’d say look at the chart, but it will make you cry, as it starts the move comes from Asian hours and we know they cannot get enough precious” and furthermore, it “feels like someone loading up on a flat price position.”
Ultimately, to the Goldman trader, it feels like the price of platinum is determined by fundamentals vs momo, but that is markets in a nutshell. To James, his mind “always says has to be a long duration hand, tactical guy cannot buy that shape, but have been wrong before, ask these guys what they think – “Gold, Platinum and Why Everyone Has it Wrong.”
In a nutshell, “the issue for most is how does it move the needle, small wins yes, bigger ones harder to capture.”
Unless, of course, the Chinese buyers – who have historicall been very price discriminate no longer are – and this time the melt up momentum only brings with it even more momentum, blasting the metal to parity with gold, if not higher.
A more sketpical view was published today by Goldman’s precious metal analyst Lina Thomas, who notes that the platinum breakout began on May 20, coinciding with the start of Platinum Week (May 20-21) and a bullish World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) report published on the day prior. However, as we subsequently reported and as Goldman also writes today, it was speculative and ETF demand that fueled the rally to $1,280/toz.
We agree with Goldman on this, where we disagree with the bank is its claim that “a sustained breakout is unlikely for three reasons.” Goldman’s three reasons to be bearish are the following:
#1 Price-Sensitive Chinese Demand
Chinese buying, which corresponds to about 60% of new annual platinum production, appears highly price sensitive, with increased buying when prices are low but reduced buying when prices are high.
Goldman believes that this strategic buying has likely contributed to platinum’s range-bound trading over the past decade. Nearly 50% of China’s imports are driven by price-sensitive jewelry and investment demand. For instance, lower prices post-the ‘Liberation Day’ US tariff announcement contributed to higher platinum withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), a proxy for Chinese jewelry and, to a lesser extent, investment demand, in April and consequently high Chinese platinum imports that month. But – the bank argues – the rally that started in mid-May appears to have already curtailed Chinese jewelry (and investment) demand for platinum. Which however is irrelevant if speculators have enough firepower to keep pushing the ascent higher, in which case Chinese jewelers will eventually be forced to chase the price again, only this time much higher.
#2 Downside Pressures on Auto Sector’s Demand for Platinum
Here, Goldman repeats the trite and familiar “fundamental” case why platinum demand is evaporating because very soon nobody will be driving ICE cars, and yada, yada. To wit: China’s rapid shift towards EVs is eroding long-term autocatalyst demand for platinum (which depends on ICE and hybrid car sales) while simultaneously increasing scrap availability as ICE vehicles are retired. Which is a lovely, if categorically false thesis, because China is already facing a resistance threshold in its power grid, beyond which it will no longer be able to support all the EVs on the road. What happens then? And what happens when Chinese EV subsidies finally run out.
Meanwhile, in the West, Goldman’s autos equity analysts expect the ICE and hybrid vehicle fleet to remain relatively stable, with no large impact on the platinum balance
#3 Stable-to-Moderately Higher Global Supply
In an attempt to re-engage at the fundamental level, Goldman expects stable-to-moderately higher global platinum supply… unless South African power constraints re-emerge, which they will. Platinum production is highly geographically concentrated, with South Africa accounting for 70% of primary platinum production, with most of the remainder coming from Russia.
In South Africa, which is a country that has rolling blackouts for half the day, guidance from the major PGM miners points to moderate increases in PGM supply (12% year-over-year in 2025). The supply resilience is most likely fabricated as it defies the impact of years of low platinum prices and compressed margins, and so expect declining South African production in the coming years.
Platinum production is primarily a byproduct of other metals, such as copper, and is co-mined with other Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) such as palladium and rhodium. Consequently, the PGM basket price (denominated in ZAR) and revenue derived from associated metals — rather than just the platinum price — heavily influence the overall profitability of these mining operations. Periods of high prices for byproduct metals, such as the near-record chrome prices in 2024, can provide financial relief and offset downward profit pressure from lower platinum prices
Here Goldman admits that PGM production cannot be easily increased due to capacity constraints, which is bullish for the price; alternatively, significant curtailments are also rare due to a high proportion of fixed costs inherent in these operations, particularly energy and labor. The heavily unionized nature of South Africa’s mining sector makes layoffs “politically sensitive” and doing so could increase the risk of strikes, social unrest and reputational damage. These socialist factors support a strategy in which mines operate at a high capacity utilization without materially increasing output; in other words just churning. Lower capex guidance – similar to the US shale patch – suggests producers are focused on extracting more from existing assets
Goldman’s optimistic view notwithstanding, the main risk to production remains operational disruptions and thus South African power outages and labor strikes represent the most significant threats to supply. Such events can halt production entirely and lead to substantial, albeit often temporary, supply deficits.
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 248.10 PTS OR 0.65% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1825 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1845/ Oil UP TO 67.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.05 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1825 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1845 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1825 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1945 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.34 PTS OR 0.01%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 331.56 PTS OR 1.36%
2. Nikkei closed UP 248.10 PTS OR 0.65%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98/29// EURO RISES TO 1.1533 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.431//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.88…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4960/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.430 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.087%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.246
3j Gold at $3359.60 Silver at: 36.96 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 56 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.06
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.86// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.451% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8146 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9397 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.405 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.898 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.024 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.30
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5220 DOWN 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.350 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.943 DOWN 1 PTS
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2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures, Dollar Slide As Trump Renews Tariff Threats, Middle East Tensions Spike
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 08:21 AM
Stock futures, bond yields and the dollar are all lower after Trump ramped trade war tensions back up saying he wants to set unilateral tariff rates higher/reimpose higher duties within the next two weeks to on several countries before the July 9th deadline while Bessent floated extensions for countries negotiating in “good faith.” Market jitters also intensified amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, with speculation that Israel may attack Iran sending oil surging. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures were down 0.6%, near session lows, putting the benchmark on track for its first back-to-back loss in three weeks as the S&P fails to hold the 6k level despite a dovish CPI and a strong 10Y auction. According to JPM, “the combination of a disappointing US/China deal (so far), higher oil prices (new geopolitical risk unlocked), and the inability of MegaCap Tech to hold gains (profit taking as we approach ATHs) seems to be the combination that reversed stocks lower.” Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.5% with Mag7/Semis weaker; ORCL rose 7% after projecting cloud infrastructure sales will jump more than 70% in the current fiscal year, while Boeing shares tumbled 8% after an Air India Boeing 787 traveling from Ahmedabad in India to London’s Gatwick airport crashed shortly after taking off, in what was the most serious accident involving the US planemaker’s most advanced widebody airliner. . Small caps are underperforming as the yield curve bull flattens. The USD is lower (new 52-wk low) and commodities are selling off with natgas and gold the bright spots. Today’s macro focus is PPI while a 30-year Treasury auction at 1pm ET will provide a key test of sentiment, given concerns about mounting deficits and the cost of Trump’s signature tax bill.
In premarket trading, the Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.4%, Apple +0.1%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.7%, Meta Platforms -0.5%, Nvidia -1.1%, Tesla -2%). Boeing tumbled 7% after a 787 Dreamliner aircraft operated by Air India crashed shortly after taking off in Ahmedabad, with 242 passengers and crew on board, and no reports of survivors. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
CureVac NV soars 30% after BioNTech SE (BNTX) agreed to buy the former Covid vaccine rival for about $1.25 billion
Dana rise 3% after the drivetrain supplier said it will sell its off-highway business to Allison Transmission for $2.7 billion.
GameStop Corp. falls 14% on plans to offer $1.75 billion worth of convertible bonds, which would make the video-game retailer one of the year’s biggest issuers of the equity-linked securities.
Oklo declines 6% as the small-reactor developer is seeking to raise as much as $400 million in a secondary share offering.
Oracle rises 8% after projecting cloud infrastructure sales will jump more than 70% in the current fiscal year, boosting investor enthusiasm for the closely watched business.
Oxford Industries falls 10% after the owner of the Tommy Bahama apparel brand slashed its profit forecast for the fiscal year.
US President Donald Trump ratcheted up trade uncertainty with remarks that he intends to impose unilateral tariffs on dozens of trading partners in the coming weeks. Separately, market jitters intensified amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The cautious mood is stalling a rebound in US equities that had brought the S&P 500 within reach of its all-time high, even as questions persist over the economic impact of Trump’s trade agenda. Resilient earnings and limited economic fallout have supported the rally so far, but traders are questioning how much further the gains can stretch. Meanwhile, uncertainty is set to endure and stock valuations are already lofty, according to Howard Marks. With that backdrop, traders are probably going to be treading water for a while longer.
Still, while Trump’s comments about unilateral tariffs add to the trade war noise, it’s unclear if he will follow through. The president has often set two-week deadlines for actions, only for them to come later or not at all. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was said to see a large gap between the US and Japanese stances on tariffs before this weekend’s key G7 meeting in Canada.
“There’s a resistance at this point to really add a lot of risk,” Alastair Pinder, global equity strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, told Bloomberg TV. “The reason for that is because people think that this tariffs are going to hit growth at some point in the future.”
Sentiment was also dented by an uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East after CBS reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully prepared to launch an operation into Iran/US ordered some staff in Baghdad embassy to evacuate after Iran threatened to strike American bases in Middle East over its nuclear program.
Elsewhere, Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction will provide a fresh gauge of investor appetite for long-dated debt amid concerns that mounting deficits are dampening demand. The sale comes as Congress debates Trump’s signature tax legislation, which some estimates suggest could add trillions of dollars to the US budget shortfall, potentially requiring increased bond issuance to fund the deficit.
“We know that Trump is watching these auctions closely, so investors will want to wait to see if there’s any reaction from him if the results don’t turn out well,” said Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.8% amid a broader risk-off theme after President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates. European mining shares and airline stocks are among the worst performers in Europe, while energy shares outperform. Among individual stocks, Tesco gains after the UK food retailer’s sales increased more than expected. Here are the most notable movers:
BE Semiconductor shares soar as much as 11% to the highest levels since January, after the chip equipment maker raised its long-term revenue and margin outlook ahead of its investor day.
Tesco gains as much as 2.2% after delivering stronger UK like-for-like sales growth than expected in the first quarter.
Oracle shares rise as much as 8.3% in premarket trading on Thursday after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations as demand for AI infrastructure remains strong.
Clas Ohlson rises as much as 15%, setting a new record high, following the Swedish retail group’s fourth-quarter results.
Halma shares jump as much as 10% to hit a new all-time high after the safety technology group posted annual results ahead of expectations.
Paypoint shares rise as much as 5.5% after the payment service provider said it expects to deliver £100m Ebitda by the end of fiscal 2026. Panmure Liberum notes strength in parcels and digital payments.
LPP gains as much as 5.3% as Poland’s biggest fashion retailer reported stronger-than-expected earnings in 1Q ended April 30, driven by strict cost control.
Airline stocks fall and are among the worst performers in Europe, after US peers suffered sharp drops on Wednesday when data showed airfares slippping for the fourth straight month.
European mining shares are among the worst-performing sectors in the Stoxx 600 benchmark as iron ore falls after US President Donald Trump said he will tell trading partners their tariff rates within two weeks.
European insurance stocks decline as Barclays downgrades its sector view to neutral, saying valuations are relatively full while the scope for earnings surprises is running out of steam.
Cerillion shares fall as much as 17%, set for their steepest one-day drop, as the CEO and biggest holder in the IT service firm unveiled plans to sell 1.3 million shares in a discounted secondary placing.
Thule drops as much as 4.6% following a downgrade to hold at DNB Carnegie, which sees risk/reward for the Swedish outdoor equipment maker as broadly neutral.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fluctuated, as investors fretted over US President Donald Trump’s pledge to announce unilateral tariff rates for major trading partners within two weeks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a 0.3% gain and a 0.2% loss after rising for three straight days to its highest level since November 2021. TSMC and Alibaba were the biggest drags on the gauge, while Mitsubishi Heavy provided the biggest boost. Markets in the region were mixed, with Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong falling while South Korea extended its post-election gains. The MSCI China Index was down 1.1% in afternoon trading. The gauge entered a bull market Wednesday, up more than 20% from an April low, amid optimism that Sino-American tensions will ease following the trade talks. The unpredictability of US trade policies continues to keep the market on edge, though volatility has declined. US President Donald Trump’s latest comments indicate nations will be notified of new levies ahead of the July 9 deadline he had previously set to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.
In FX, the Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.5%, while the euro rises 0.9% against the greenback to the highest since November 2021. The Swiss franc is up 0.8% while the Japanese yen gains 0.6%. The pound is up 0.3% but lags regional peers after UK GDP fell more anticipated in April.
In rates, treasuries extend Wednesday’s gains, with yields lower by 4bp-5bp and at week’s lows, supported by wider gains in most European bond markets. US Treasury 10-year yields trade around 4.365%, down 5bps, with bunds and gilts outperforming by 1.5bp and 1bp in the sector. Front-end lags slightly, with 2-year yields down around 3.5bp on the day. Long-end gilts rallied after UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing data were slightly softer-than-expected. US session includes weekly jobless claims and PPI data and $22 billion 30-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time. 30-year bond sale concludes this week’s Treasury auction cycle. Wednesday’s 10-year note drew strong demand, stopping through by 0.7bp. WI 30-year yield is near 4.87%, about 5bp cheaper than last month’s result.
In commodities, WTI futures drop 1.5% to $67.10 a barrel after surging on Wednesday amid renewed Iran tensions; spot gold rises $11 to around $3,366/oz.
US economic data slate includes May PPI and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and 1Q household change in net worth (12pm).
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.4%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4%
Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%
DAX -1%, CAC 40 -0.5%
10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.4%
VIX +1.1 points at 18.34
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.4% at 1202.28
euro +0.6% at $1.156
WTI crude -1.1% at $67.38/barrel
Top Overnight News
An Air India Boeing 787 (BA -7.5%) traveling from Ahmedabad to London’s Gatwick airport with 242 people on board crashed shortly after takeoff and exploded on impact. Flight AI171 reached an altitude of 625 feet, according to Flightradar24. Boeing shares slumped premarket. BBG
Israel is considering taking military action against Iran — most likely without U.S. support — in the coming days, even as President Donald Trump is in advanced discussions with Tehran about a diplomatic deal to curtail its nuclear program. NBC
China’s chokehold on supplies of minerals essential to high-tech goods from electric vehicles to jet fighters has become a formidable advantage in trade negotiations with the U.S. They are keeping rare earths on a very tight leash, agreeing only to export licenses for 6-month terms to retain negotiating leverage against Washington. WSJ
If the U.S. continues to impose AI semiconductor restrictions on China, then chipmaker Huawei will take advantage of its position in the world’s second-largest economy, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC Thursday. CNBC
GOP senators emerged from the meeting on Trump’s big bill but details are lacking on how tax overhaul and Medicaid cuts would be structured, while it was indicated that changes would be made to pare back SNAP provisions to lessen burden on states and the SALT cap is likely to be reduced: CNN
Japanese PM Ishiba still sees distance with the US when it comes to trade talks, according to an opposition party leader who met with the leader to discuss US tariffs. Ishiba says there is a large gap between the US and Japanese stances, and that he doesn’t have a particular timeline in mind for when the two sides may come to an agreement. BBG
Russian forces ate into more Ukrainian territory in May than in almost any month since the end of 2022, as the Kremlin presses a summer offensive to create the impression in the West that victory is within its grasp. WSJ
UK reported relatively soft April data, with shortfalls in monthly GDP and industrial/manufacturing production. RTRS
Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies. BBG
Senator Ted Cruz pitched Republican senators Wednesday on ending the Federal Reserve’s authority to pay interest to banks, claiming it would save $1.1 trillion over a decade, with members of the party’s conservative flank lauding the idea. BBG
Manhattan apartment rents hit another record in May, the third in four months. Demand may surge further as lease expirations and an influx of new graduates tighten the market.
Tariffs/Trade
US President Trump said he would be willing to extend the trade talks deadline but doesn’t think it will be necessary, while he added they are dealing with Japan and South Korea on trade. Trump also stated at a certain point, they will send letters out for countries to take or leave and will send those letters out in a week and a half. Furthermore, he said the EU wants to negotiate and will weigh in again in a week if he’s satisfied.
Chinese Foreign Ministry says the nation will always honour its commitments when commenting on US President Trump’s remarks that a deal with China is “done”
US President Trump is expected to sign off on key components of the US/UK trade deal, according to FT; relating to the “cars for agriculture” deal. Officials cited by the FT say negotiations are ongoing on delivering tariff-free entry for UK steelmakers
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from Wall St where the major indices were choppy and wiped out initial data-driven gains as geopolitical concerns clouded over risk sentiment. ASX 200 was initially led higher by strength in energy and gold miners after the recent rallies in their respective underlying commodity prices, although the gains in the broader market were limited and the index eventually returned to flat territory. Nikkei 225 underperformed as exporters suffered the ill effects of the recent currency strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed alongside a similar overall picture across the Asia-Pac region and with markets somewhat unimpressed following the lack of solid details from the recent US-China agreement.
Top Asian News
Toho Titanium Co. shares surged 16% after parent JX Advanced Metals Corp. said it’s considering ways to unwind the listing of the titanium unit as Japan’s complex system of subsidiaries comes under scrutiny.
Asian Paints’ shares gain as much as 2.5% as 35 million shares of the company changed hands in a single block trade on the NSE, removing concerns of large supply of the stock on the counter in the near term.
Paytm’s shares slump in early trading in Mumbai after India’s finance ministry says it has no proposal to allow merchant fees on digital transactions, a move that impacts the company’s potential for such revenue generation.
Cettire shares slide after the online fashion retailer said it’s facing ongoing challenges in the global luxury market, intensified by US tariff policies.
Shares of Thailand’s Siam Cement advance 3% after the company said its unit is preparing to reduce stake in Indonesia’s Chandra Asri Pacific.
Sino Biopharmaceutical shares soar 19%, as the Chinese drugmaker says a “landmark out-licensing deal” may be finalized in the near future, according to a WeChat statement.
Industrial Securities shares fall 4.8% in Shanghai after the company says its controlling shareholder, the Fujian provincial finance department, isn’t planning any merger for the Chinese brokerage, according to a statement to the Shanghai stock exchange.
Sumitomo Pharma shares surge by their daily limit of 17%, or by ¥150 yen, after Daiwa Securities raised its rating on the Japanese drugmaker citing growing sales of existing products to help fund new research.
European bourses are very much on the backfoot, in a catch-up play to some of the losses seen late in the US session; EuroStoxx 50 -1.0%. Newsflow focussed on trade and geopols. Sectors are mostly negative given this, with the exception of Energy (+0.4%), given the rally in crude seen on Wednesday; a narrative which is cushioning the FTSE 100 -0.2%. At the other end of the spectrum, Travel & Leisure (-2.4%) lags given recent gains in energy prices and with focus on Boeing (-7.5%) after the Air India crash.
Top European News
NBP’s Kotecki says rates could be lowered in July, via ISBNews; end of 2025 main rate could fall to 4.75%, perhaps to 4.5% if projection in November shows lower inflation path.
ECB’s Villeroy says a 5.4% budget deficit in 2025 remains in reach, even with lowering forecasts.
ECB’s Simkus says rates may still have to come down as risk has increased that inflation will be below projections; ECB has arrived at the neutral rate.
ECB’s Patsalides says the ECB is flexible and agile on rates.
ECB’s Schnabel (Hawk) says the monetary policy cycle is coming to an end, growth outlook is broadly stable despite the trade conflict; financing conditions are no longer restrictive. Medium term inflation stabilises at the target. Medium term inflation stabilises at the target. EZ Headline inflation will ease further in Q1 2026, due to energy price base effect, return to 2% over the medium term.
FX
DXY has for the most part been in the red. Losses were modest in the early morning, and indeed the DXY briefly made a foray into positive territory testing 98.50 to the upside. However, the general direction of travel remains lower after CPI and the unilateral tariff comments from Trump. DXY has slipped onto a 97 handle and is now eyeing the YTD trough @ 97.92
CHF and JPY the current outperformers. As the risk tone deteriorates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate after Iran was judged to be in violation of IAEA rules, paving the way for a return to sanctions. USD/CHF slumped as reporting around from Iran around “potential Israel attack” emerged, at a 0.8140 low. Similarly, USD/JPY at lows of 143.58, driven by the same factors and ahead of a busy week for Japan.
GBP faded initial gains in the wake of disappointing UK GDP metrics. Cable hit an overnight high at 1.3593 before slipping into the red and to a 1.3524 low post-data. Action which has helped to support the EUR, as EUR/GBP peaks at 0.8519 just shy of 0.8522 from May 8th. In recent trade, as the USD gave ground, Cable has moved back into the green.
EUR/USD is on the front foot and continuing to climb, at a new YTD peak at 1.1587 as traders seek a liquid alternative to the USD. Numerous ECB speakers so far and scheduled for the day ahead, though none have moved the dial just yet.
Antipodeans initially softer, following the soft risk tone before moving higher as the dollar lost ground. AUD/USD Is now back on a 0.65 handle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1803 vs exp. 7.1703 (Prev. 7.1815).
Fixed Income
Gilts outperform on soft growth data, a release which has caused markets to once again imply two more 25bps cuts by the BoE in 2025. Though, some caveats to the release around frontloading due to US tariffs and UK stamp duty changes do apply. As high as 93.13, eclipsing Tuesday’s 92.87 best (after a dovish labour report), to a fresh WTD peak.
Bunds were contained overnight, holding around the 130.97 peak seen after US CPI. Since, despite a very brief bout of pressure early doors, the bullish direction has resumed lifting Bunds to a 131.40 peak and counting given the risk tone and potentially in sympathy with Gilts. If breached Bunds then look to 131.47 from June 5th before 131.50 from the week of May 9th.
USTs an echo of the above, though are comparably more contained as we count down to the afternoon’s PPI data for further insight into the inflation picture and how it squares with the dovish CPI report. At a 110-29 peak, near-enough matching 110-29+ from June 6th. Yields began mixed but have come under growing pressure as the benchmark itself lifts, with a modest flattening bias emerging but 2s30s remains in proximity to the steepest points seen post-CPI.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks on the backfoot, benchmarks posting downside in excess of USD 1.00/bbl and at lows of USD 67.03/bbl and USD 68.64/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively; pressure which comes as a modest pullback from the upside seen on Wednesday. The main headline-driver this morning has been geopols, as the IAEA board voted to censure Iran over violations to the nuclear commitment. A decision which has sparked increasingly escalatory rhetoric over the morning.
However, geopols have not spurred too much action so far for crude, given the gains seen on Tuesday, Trump’s tariff rhetoric, ongoing OPEC+ action and the lack of specificity on what the Iranian response will be.
As it stands, we await details on Iran’s full response (they have confirmed a new enrichment site so far), how Israel and others will respond and if the 6th round of talks between the US and Iran will occur on Sunday, June 15th as scheduled.
Spot gold is firmer on the session. However, price action has seen significant whipsawing as XAU got slammed to a USD 3338/oz trough in the early European morning, with no clear driver aside from a pickup in the USD at the time. Since, the yellow metal has been climbing and is comfortably in the green and at a USD 3377/oz peak, moving alongside other havens as the geopolitical tone intensifies.
Specifics for base metals a little light aside from broader updates on trade and those impacting the risk tone as discussed.
US Energy Secretary Wright and Secretary of the Interior of Burgum joined Japan’s JERA and US energy producers to finalise agreements expected to add over USD 200bln to US GDP. It was also reported that Energy Secretary Wright said a US oil output drop in 2026 is unlikely and sees a multi-year process for refilling the SPR, while he anticipates repairs to the SPR will be completed by the end of the year.
Japan is reportedly concluding plans to conduct an auction for tax-free “minimum access” import rice, during June, via NHK.
Geopolitics
Iran International posted “The sixth round of Iran-US talks had been tentatively scheduled for this weekend in Oman but it looked increasingly unlikely that the talks would happen, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday citing two US officials”. However, it was reported that US envoy Witkoff is to meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday to discuss Iran’s response to the US proposal for a nuclear deal, according to a senior US official cited by Axios’s Ravid.
Sources cited by The Washington Post noted that US intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about the fear of Israel striking Iran without Washington’s approval, according to Al Jazeera.
US President Trump responded you are going to have to figure that out, when asked why people were being asked to leave the Middle East.
US officials were told that Israel is fully ready for Iran operation, according to CBS.
Senior Iranian Official says the nation will not abandon its right to Uranium enrichment; a “friendly” country in the region has alerted Tehran about a potential Israel attack.
IAEA Board of Governors has passed the resolution declaring Iran as being in non-compliance with nuclear safeguards. Iran condemns the IAEA resolution, says it is a political decision without technical or legal foundations; no other choice than to respond to the IAEA resolution. Will launch a new enrichment site in a safe zone; additional countermeasures are being planned and will announced later.
IAEA report says Iran conducted undeclared nuclear activities at 4 sites: Turquzabad, Mariwan, Pharmin and Lavisan Xi’an, according to Sky News Arabia
Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs and Mossad director will travel to meet US envoy Whitkov ahead of the round of nuclear negotiations with Iran scheduled for Sunday, via Israeli media cited by Sky News Arabia.
US Embassy in Israel restricts travel for staff and families.
Israel Foreign Ministry says the international community must respond to Iran’s non-compliance and take measures to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
Journalist Stein says “Western diplomats tell i24NEWS: They are concerned about a meltdown between the two countries.” (Iran and Israel).
Iraqi Military says the US evacuation decision has nothing to do with the presence of any field security indicators in the territory. Intelligence and field reports do not indicate actual threats. Additionally, US embassy in Bahrain says reports that the embassy has changed its posture in any way are false; staffing and operations are unchanged, activities continue as normal.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.5%
8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.4%
8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%
8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
8:30 am: Jun 7 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 242k, prior 247k
8:30 am: May 31 Continuing Claims, est. 1910k, prior 1904k
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Happy birthday to me for today. All through my life I’ve looked quite old. I genuinely think though that my actual age is catching up to how old I look. Probably as being bald at 51 doesn’t stand out as much as starting to lose your hair in your early 20s! However as good as I feel, I have the knees of a 65 year old and the back of a 70 year old.
There were a few creaking joints in markets yesterday, as growing tensions in the Middle East saw Brent crude oil prices (+4.34%) post their biggest daily jump of 2025 so far, moving up to $69.77/bbl. That came as the US said they were pulling some staff from their Baghdad embassy, with fears mounting about an escalation between the US and Iran.
Sentiment wasn’t helped by various headlines, and CBS News reported that part of the reason for the US moving staff out of the Middle East was because US officials had been told that Israel was ready to launch an operation into Iran. The move also followed comments that President Trump made to the New York Post he was “less confident” about getting Iran to agree to end its nuclear program, and Iran’s defence minister warned that Tehran would target US bases if “conflict is imposed on us”. So after a strong start to the session, those headlines saw the S&P 500 (-0.27%) lose ground by the close, with futures this morning down another -0.34%.
Up to that point, things had looked more positive, as bonds and equities had been lifted by a downside US CPI print. Indeed, it was the 4th downside surprise in a row, which led to growing optimism that the tariff pass through to consumers might be smaller than originally feared. So that kept the prospect of Fed rate cuts firmly in play this year, which helped the 10yr Treasury yield came down -5.0bps on the day to 4.42%.
In terms of the details, the report showed US monthly headline CPI up by just +0.08% in May (vs. +0.2% expected), whilst core CPI was up +0.13% (vs. +0.3% expected). In fact, the core CPI print was beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, so it was a clear downside surprise that wasn’t expected at all. Investors were reassured by the lack of an obvious tariff impact, with core goods prices actually falling -0.04% in May. But if you dug deeper into the subcomponents there were a few initial signs of the tariffs, as toys (+1.35%) posted their strongest monthly jump in over 4 years, whilst major appliances (+4.31%) saw their biggest jump in almost 5 years.
With another soft inflation print, investors moved to price in more rate cuts from the Fed. Indeed, the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting rose +6.1bps on the day to 49bps, and overnight that’s since risen to 51bps. That also came as some of the inflation trendlines looked increasingly favourable. For example, if you take the last 3 months together, the annualised rate of headline CPI fell to just +1.0%, the weakest since July. Similarly for core CPI, the 3-month annualised rate was also down to +1.7%. So that was seen as raising the chance of rate cuts. In the meantime, there was also fresh pressure for cuts from the administration, as President Trump posted “CPI JUST OUT. GREAT NUMBERS! FED SHOULD LOWER ONE FULL POINT. WOULD PAY MUCH LESS INTEREST ON DEBT COMING DUE. SO IMPORTANT!!!” Shortly beforehand, Vice President JD Vance had also said that “the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice.”
The other big story yesterday came from the US-China trade talks. In terms of what we know, Trump posted yesterday that “OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME” and that the deal would see Beijing supplying rare earths and magnets “UP FRONT”, with the US in turn meeting its commitments, including on Chinese students using US universities. Trump also spoke of 55% tariffs on China, implying that the current combination of tariffs (10% baseline, 20% fentanyl-related and up to 25% from the 2018-19 tariffs) would continue. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that China was putting a 6-month limit on new rare-earth export licences, in exchange for the US agreeing to relax its recent restrictions of the sale of products such as jet engines and ethane to China. So overall, this left a sense that the two sides had re-established the trade truce that was signaled in Geneva last month, but with the path forward towards any genuine trade normalisation still unclear.
In other trade news, we’re now less than four weeks away from the end of the 90-day extension to the reciprocal tariffs, which is set to run out on July 9. And yesterday President Trump said that the US was “going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries, telling them what the deal is”. The US is still negotiating with several countries, and earlier in the day, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the EU “will be probably the very, very end” of the trade deals that the US completes. Meanwhile, in a testimony to Congress, Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested there was no quid pro quo between US chip restrictions and China rare earths. Bessent’s other notable comment came on fiscal policy, saying that he wants to achieve a deficit ratio of below 4% by the end of Trump’s term. And after Bloomberg reported he might be in the running to become the next Fed Chair, Bessent also said he “would like to stay in my seat” at the Treasury to 2029.
For equities, the renewed geopolitical risks outweighed the good news on CPI, with the S&P 500 (-0.27%) ending a run of three consecutive increases. With little immediate sign that US chip restrictions were being lifted, the Magnificent 7 (-0.83%) underperformed, led by declines for Apple (-1.92%) and Amazon (-2.03%). And the VIX index of volatility inched +0.31pts higher to 17.26pts, having previously been on track to close at its lowest since February.
By contrast, Treasuries posted solid gains, aided by the CPI and a solid 10yr auction that saw $39bn of notes issued -0.7bps below the pre-sale yield. Collectively, that pushed the 2yr yield down -6.6ps on the day to 3.95%, while the 10yr yield was down -5.0bps to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 30yr yield fell by a more modest -1.0bps to 4.92% ahead of today’s 30yr auction. And in turn, lower US rates saw the dollar index (-0.47%) fall to within half a percent of its lows in late April, and it’s now hovering just above that with another -0.26% decline overnight. That comes as Treasury yields have also extended their declines this morning, with the 10yr yield down another -1.4bps to 4.41%.
Overnight in Asia, markets have generally struggled to gain traction as they grapple with the uncertainty on tariffs and geopolitics. So the Nikkei (-0.56%) and the Hang Seng (-0.50%) have both lost ground, while the CSI 300 (+0.03%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.07%) have only posted very modest increases. The main exception to that pattern has been South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.71%), which has posted a 7th consecutive gain this morning, leaving the index on track for its highest closing level since January 2022.
Earlier in Europe, both equities and bonds struggled as they failed to benefit from the US CPI boost. However, they also closed before the negative geopolitical headlines, so futures on the DAX this morning are down another -0.82%. Ahead of that however, the STOXX 600 (-0.27%) lost ground for a third consecutive session, with losses for the DAX (-0.16%), the CAC 40 (-0.36%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.07%) as well. And it was much the same story for rates, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.1bps), OATs (+2.3bps) and BTPs (+1.0bps) all moving up.
Meanwhile in the UK, the government announced their Spending Review, where they set departmental budget allocations for the years ahead. This was more about the micro decisions, as the spending envelopes are set to grow broadly in line with the Spring Statement forecasts, with real-terms day-to-day spending rising by 1.8% next fiscal year and 1% over the remainder of the forecast horizon. So the next big fiscal question will lie in the Autumn Budget, which is slowly coming into view. Our UK economist has flagged how changes to market conditioning assumptions, a looser labour market, trade war, and potential downgrades to productivity could open up yet another fiscal hole – to the tune of £10-15bn. For more details on the spending review, see his latest blog here.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI release for May, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for April. Central bank speakers include the ECB Vice President de Guindos, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Muller, Escriva, Simkus, Knot, Panetta, and Patsalides. Finally, there’s a 30yr Treasury auction taking place.
2b European opening report
Risk off as Geopolitics takes centre stage, Boeing -8% after Air India incident – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 06:12 AM
US President Trump said at a certain point, they will send letters out for countries to take or leave and will send those letters out in a week and a half.
Geopolitics is driving newsflow as Iran was judged to have violated IAEA rules. An update which has sparked increasingly escalatory rhetoric.
Given the above, equities are in the red with the DXY pressured and havens leading FX while EUR/USD hits a new YTD peak and XAU climbs.
Crude pressured despite the above, given the gains seen on Tuesday, Trump’s tariff rhetoric, ongoing OPEC+ action and the lack of specificity on what the Iranian response will be.
EGBs benefiting from the risk tone, Gilts outperform after soft GDP. USTs in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained into data.
Air India flight AI171 to the UK from Ahmedabad, India crashed outside the airport after takeoff. Craft was a Boeing (BA) 787-8 Dreamliner; Boeing lower by as much as 8% in pre-market trade.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI, ECB’s de Guindos & Elderson, Supply from the US, Earnings from Adobe & Carnival.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
US President Trump said he would be willing to extend the trade talks deadline but doesn’t think it will be necessary, while he added they are dealing with Japan and South Korea on trade. Trump also stated at a certain point, they will send letters out for countries to take or leave and will send those letters out in a week and a half. Furthermore, he said the EU wants to negotiate and will weigh in again in a week if he’s satisfied.
Chinese Foreign Ministry says the nation will always honour its commitments when commenting on US President Trump’s remarks that a deal with China is “done”
US President Trump is expected to sign off on key components of the US/UK trade deal, according to FT; relating to the “cars for agriculture” deal. Officials cited by the FT say negotiations are ongoing on delivering tariff-free entry for UK steelmakers
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are very much on the backfoot, in a catch-up play to some of the losses seen late in the US session; EuroStoxx 50 -1.0%. Newsflow focussed on trade and geopols.
Sectors are mostly negative given this, with the exception of Energy (+0.4%), given the rally in crude seen on Wednesday; a narrative which is cushioning the FTSE 100 -0.2%. At the other end of the spectrum, Travel & Leisure (-2.4%) lags given recent gains in energy prices and with focus on Boeing (-7.5%) after the Air India crash.
Stateside, futures in the red ES -0.4%. Weighed on in-line with the broader risk tone given geopols and as we await new trade updates. Docket ahead focussed firmly on PPI (after a cooler-than-expected CPI release). Afterhours, Adobe due.
Air India flight AI171 to the UK from Ahmedabad, India has crashed outside the airport on take off. Craft was a Boeing (BA) 787-8 Dreamliner (twin-jet). Reports suggest 242 passengers on board. Boeing (BA) lower by over 7.5% in pre-market trade.
Oracle shares are up nearly 8% in pre-market trade after it forecast solid cloud infrastructure revenue growth for the next fiscal year, with orders seen more than doubling.
DXY has for the most part been in the red. Losses were modest in the early morning, and indeed the DXY briefly made a foray into positive territory testing 98.50 to the upside. However, the general direction of travel remains lower after CPI and the unilateral tariff comments from Trump. DXY has slipped onto a 97 handle and is now eyeing the YTD trough @ 97.92
CHF and JPY the current outperformers. As the risk tone deteriorates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate after Iran was judged to be in violation of IAEA rules, paving the way for a return to sanctions. USD/CHF slumped as reporting around from Iran around “potential Israel attack” emerged, at a 0.8140 low. Similarly, USD/JPY at lows of 143.58, driven by the same factors and ahead of a busy week for Japan.
GBP faded initial gains in the wake of disappointing UK GDP metrics. Cable hit an overnight high at 1.3593 before slipping into the red and to a 1.3524 low post-data. Action which has helped to support the EUR, as EUR/GBP peaks at 0.8519 just shy of 0.8522 from May 8th. In recent trade, as the USD gave ground, Cable has moved back into the green.
EUR/USD is on the front foot and continuing to climb, at a new YTD peak at 1.1587 as traders seek a liquid alternative to the USD. Numerous ECB speakers so far and scheduled for the day ahead, though none have moved the dial just yet.
Antipodeans initially softer, following the soft risk tone before moving higher as the dollar lost ground. AUD/USD Is now back on a 0.65 handle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1803 vs exp. 7.1703 (Prev. 7.1815).
Gilts outperform on soft growth data, a release which has caused markets to once again imply two more 25bps cuts by the BoE in 2025. Though, some caveats to the release around frontloading due to US tariffs and UK stamp duty changes do apply. As high as 93.13, eclipsing Tuesday’s 92.87 best (after a dovish labour report), to a fresh WTD peak.
Bunds were contained overnight, holding around the 130.97 peak seen after US CPI. Since, despite a very brief bout of pressure early doors, the bullish direction has resumed lifting Bunds to a 131.40 peak and counting given the risk tone and potentially in sympathy with Gilts. If breached Bunds then look to 131.47 from June 5th before 131.50 from the week of May 9th.
USTs an echo of the above, though are comparably more contained as we count down to the afternoon’s PPI data for further insight into the inflation picture and how it squares with the dovish CPI report. At a 110-29 peak, near-enough matching 110-29+ from June 6th. Yields began mixed but have come under growing pressure as the benchmark itself lifts, with a modest flattening bias emerging but 2s30s remains in proximity to the steepest points seen post-CPI.
Crude benchmarks on the backfoot, benchmarks posting downside in excess of USD 1.00/bbl and at lows of USD 67.03/bbl and USD 68.64/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively; pressure which comes as a modest pullback from the upside seen on Wednesday. The main headline-driver this morning has been geopols, as the IAEA board voted to censure Iran over violations to the nuclear commitment. A decision which has sparked increasingly escalatory rhetoric over the morning.
However, geopols have not spurred too much action so far for crude, given the gains seen on Tuesday, Trump’s tariff rhetoric, ongoing OPEC+ action and the lack of specificity on what the Iranian response will be.
As it stands, we await details on Iran’s full response (they have confirmed a new enrichment site so far), how Israel and others will respond and if the 6th round of talks between the US and Iran will occur on Sunday, June 15th as scheduled.
Spot gold is firmer on the session. However, price action has seen significant whipsawing as XAU got slammed to a USD 3338/oz trough in the early European morning, with no clear driver aside from a pickup in the USD at the time. Since, the yellow metal has been climbing and is comfortably in the green and at a USD 3377/oz peak, moving alongside other havens as the geopolitical tone intensifies.
Specifics for base metals a little light aside from broader updates on trade and those impacting the risk tone as discussed.
US Energy Secretary Wright and Secretary of the Interior of Burgum joined Japan’s JERA and US energy producers to finalise agreements expected to add over USD 200bln to US GDP. It was also reported that Energy Secretary Wright said a US oil output drop in 2026 is unlikely and sees a multi-year process for refilling the SPR, while he anticipates repairs to the SPR will be completed by the end of the year.
Japan is reportedly concluding plans to conduct an auction for tax-free “minimum access” import rice, during June, via NHK.
UK GDP Estimate MM (Apr) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%); 3M/3M (Apr) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.7%); YY (Apr) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.1%)
UK Services MM (Apr) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.4%); YY (Apr) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.3%)
UK Goods Trade Balance GBP (Apr) -23.206B vs. Exp. -20.400B (Prev. -19.869B, Rev. -19.86B)
UK RICS Housing Survey (May) -8.0 vs. Exp. -4.0 (Prev. -3.0); House Buyer Demand -26 vs (Prev. -32)
German Ifo Forecasts: GDP; upward revisions driven by the expected impact of new government measures. 2025: 0.3% (prev. exp. 0.2%), 2026: 1.5% (prev. exp. 0.8%)
Norges Bank Regional network: Increased exports despite international trade uncertainty.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
NBP’s Kotecki says rates could be lowered in July, via ISBNews; end of 2025 main rate could fall to 4.75%, perhaps to 4.5% if projection in November shows lower inflation path.
ECB’s Villeroy says a 5.4% budget deficit in 2025 remains in reach, even with lowering forecasts.
ECB’s Simkus says rates may still have to come down as risk has increased that inflation will be below projections; ECB has arrived at the neutral rate.
ECB’s Patsalides says the ECB is flexible and agile on rates.
ECB’s Schnabel (Hawk) says the monetary policy cycle is coming to an end, growth outlook is broadly stable despite the trade conflict; financing conditions are no longer restrictive. Medium term inflation stabilises at the target. Medium term inflation stabilises at the target. EZ Headline inflation will ease further in Q1 2026, due to energy price base effect, return to 2% over the medium term.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
CNN’s Manu Raju posted that GOP senators emerged from the meeting on Trump’s big bill but details are lacking on how tax overhaul and Medicaid cuts would be structured, while it was indicated that changes would be made to pare back SNAP provisions to lessen burden on states and the SALT cap is likely to be reduced.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Overnight:
Iran International posted “The sixth round of Iran-US talks had been tentatively scheduled for this weekend in Oman but it looked increasingly unlikely that the talks would happen, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday citing two US officials”. However, it was reported that US envoy Witkoff is to meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday to discuss Iran’s response to the US proposal for a nuclear deal, according to a senior US official cited by Axios’s Ravid.
Sources cited by The Washington Post noted that US intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about the fear of Israel striking Iran without Washington’s approval, according to Al Jazeera.
US President Trump responded you are going to have to figure that out, when asked why people were being asked to leave the Middle East.
US officials were told that Israel is fully ready for Iran operation, according to CBS.
European Hours:
Senior Iranian Official says the nation will not abandon its right to Uranium enrichment; a “friendly” country in the region has alerted Tehran about a potential Israel attack.
IAEA Board of Governors has passed the resolution declaring Iran as being in non-compliance with nuclear safeguards. Iran condemns the IAEA resolution, says it is a political decision without technical or legal foundations; no other choice than to respond to the IAEA resolution. Will launch a new enrichment site in a safe zone; additional countermeasures are being planned and will announced later.
IAEA report says Iran conducted undeclared nuclear activities at 4 sites: Turquzabad, Mariwan, Pharmin and Lavisan Xi’an, according to Sky News Arabia
Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs and Mossad director will travel to meet US envoy Whitkov ahead of the round of nuclear negotiations with Iran scheduled for Sunday, via Israeli media cited by Sky News Arabia.
US Embassy in Israel restricts travel for staff and families.
Israel Foreign Ministry says the international community must respond to Iran’s non-compliance and take measures to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
Journalist Stein says “Western diplomats tell i24NEWS: They are concerned about a meltdown between the two countries.” (Iran and Israel).
Iraqi Military says the US evacuation decision has nothing to do with the presence of any field security indicators in the territory. Intelligence and field reports do not indicate actual threats. Additionally, US embassy in Bahrain says reports that the embassy has changed its posture in any way are false; staffing and operations are unchanged, activities continue as normal.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from Wall St where the major indices were choppy and wiped out initial data-driven gains as geopolitical concerns clouded over risk sentiment.
ASX 200 was initially led higher by strength in energy and gold miners after the recent rallies in their respective underlying commodity prices, although the gains in the broader market were limited and the index eventually returned to flat territory.
Nikkei 225 underperformed as exporters suffered the ill effects of the recent currency strength.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed alongside a similar overall picture across the Asia-Pac region and with markets somewhat unimpressed following the lack of solid details from the recent US-China agreement.
2c Asian opening report
Europe Primed for a lower open after Middle-East evacuations & trade updates – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 02:04 AM
APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from Wall St; Europe primed for a lower open (Eurostoxx 50 future -0.7%)
US President Trump said he would be willing to extend the trade talks deadline but doesn’t think it will be necessary
US President Trump is planning to send letters in a week and a half for countries to take it or leave it regarding a trade deal.
US evacuated non-emergency US government personnel from several Middle Eastern countries due to heightened regional tensions
US officials were told that Israel is fully ready for an Iran operation, according to CBS
DXY has extended losses, EUR/USD has made its way onto a 1.15 handle, USD/JPY is sub-144
Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP Estimate, US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI, ECB’s Schnabel, de Guindos & Elderson, Supply from Italy & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were choppy with initial gains seen following the conclusion of the US-China trade talks and with risk appetite supported early in the session following softer-than-expected US CPI data which spurred Fed rate cut bets. However, the major indices then gave back their gains amid geopolitical concerns after reports that the US State Department was authorising the departure of nonessential personnel and family members from Bahrain and Kuwait, while the US embassy in Iraq was also preparing for an ordered evacuation due to heightened security risks in the region.
SPX -0.27% at 6,022, NDX -0.37% at 21,861, DJI unch at 42,866 , RUT -0.38% at 2,148.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are prepared to roll the date forward for trading partners negotiating in good faith.
US President Trump said he would be willing to extend the trade talks deadline but doesn’t think it will be necessary, while he added they are dealing with Japan and South Korea on trade. Trump also stated at a certain point, they will send letters out for countries to take or leave and will send those letters out in a week and a half. Furthermore, he said the EU wants to negotiate and will weigh in again in a week if he’s satisfied.
White House said US President Trump was talking to the trade team about the China trade deal and liked what he heard.
China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers, according to WSJ citing sources who noted the “Tentative deal reached in London gives Beijing continued leverage in trade negotiations”.
Canada and the US are reportedly exchanging potential terms on an economic and security deal, according to The Globe and Mail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
CNN’s Manu Raju posted that GOP senators emerged from the meeting on Trump’s big bill but details are lacking on how tax overhaul and Medicaid cuts would be structured, while it was indicated that changes would be made to pare back SNAP provisions to lessen burden on states and the SALT cap is likely to be reduced.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from Wall St where the major indices were choppy and wiped out initial data-driven gains as geopolitical concerns clouded over risk sentiment.
ASX 200 was initially led higher by strength in energy and gold miners after the recent rallies in their respective underlying commodity prices, although the gains in the broader market were limited and the index eventually returned to flat territory.
Nikkei 225 underperformed as exporters suffered the ill effects of the recent currency strength.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed alongside a similar overall picture across the Asia-Pac region and with markets somewhat unimpressed following the lack of solid details from the recent US-China agreement.
US equity futures (ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%) retreated overnight amid geopolitical concerns with the US evacuating non-emergency US government personnel from several Middle Eastern countries due to heightened regional tensions, while US President Trump is planning to send letters out in a week and a half for countries to take it or leave it regarding a trade deal.
European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY continued to weaken overnight following the recent softer-than-expected US CPI data and with the dollar not helped by tariff comments from US President Trump who suggested they will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks, while participants also awaited more data with Initial Jobless Claims and PPI due later today.
EUR/USD benefitted from recent dollar weakness and breached through resistance to above the 1.1500 level, while there was little impact from recent ECB comments.
GBP/USD edged higher but with gains capped beneath the 1.3600 handle heading into the latest monthly UK GDP estimates.
USD/JPY retreated to sub-144.00 territory owing to the softer buck and as geopolitical fears facilitated haven flows.
Antipodeans were indecisive after recent fluctuations and lack of tier-1 data, while there were comments from Westpac’s Chief Economist and former RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis who sees the Cash Rate bottoming at 2.85% next year.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1803 vs exp. 7.1703 (Prev. 7.1815)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures held on to its spoils after the bull steepening seen in the aftermath of the softer-than-expected US CPI.
Bund futures lingered near this week’s best levels and eyed a retest of resistance at the 131.00 level.
10yr JGB futures followed suit to the recent gains in global peers although briefly wobbled after weaker demand in the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures pulled back overnight after rallying by more than 5% yesterday following the latest inventory data and amid geopolitical concerns with the US State Department authorising the departure of non-essential personnel and family members from several Middle Eastern countries due to heightened security risks in the region.
US Energy Secretary Wright and Secretary of the Interior of Burgum joined Japan’s JERA and US energy producers to finalise agreements expected to add over USD 200bln to US GDP. It was also reported that Energy Secretary Wright said a US oil output drop in 2026 is unlikely and sees a multi-year process for refilling the SPR, while he anticipates repairs to the SPR will be completed by the end of the year.
Alberta Premier Smith said they are working to present a route to PM Carney for a potential new crude pipeline from Alberta to the Port of Prince Rupert, while the proposal is for a 1mln BPD pipeline.
Spot gold climbed on the back of a softer dollar and amid geopolitical concerns to breach through post-CPI highs.
Copper futures were rangebound after slumping yesterday and with price action contained by the mixed risk appetite in Asia.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was gradually pressured and eventually slipped beneath the USD 108.0k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s 240-hour visa-free policy was extended to 55 countries, according to Xinhua.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Trump responded you are going to have to figure that out, when asked why people were being asked to leave the Middle East.
US Defense Secretary Hegseth authorised of voluntary departure of military dependants from locations across the Middle East, according to Reuters citing a US official. It was also reported that Naval Support Activity Bahrain was placed on “High Alert”, with the dependents of servicemembers being told to prepare for evacuation, possibly due to concerns of military action related to Iran, according to OSINTdefender on X.
US State Department is authorising the departure of nonessential personnel and family members from Bahrain and Kuwait, according to AP. It was later reported that the US State Department said it ordered the departure of non-emergency US government personnel due to heightened regional tensions.
US embassy in Iraq was reportedly preparing for an ordered evacuation due to heightened security risks in the region, while an Iraqi government source said steps related to the evacuation of US diplomatic presence are not only for Iraq but several states in the Middle East.
US officials were told that Israel is fully ready for Iran operation, according to CBS.
Iran’s President Pezeshkian said they are holding talks with the US and Europe, but they will not surrender to force.
Iran International posted “The sixth round of Iran-US talks had been tentatively scheduled for this weekend in Oman but it looked increasingly unlikely that the talks would happen, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday citing two US officials”. However, it was reported that US envoy Witkoff is to meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday to discuss Iran’s response to the US proposal for a nuclear deal, according to a senior US official cited by Axios’s Ravid.
Sources cited by The Washington Post noted that US intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about the fear of Israel striking Iran without Washington’s approval, according to Al Jazeera.
US sent a diplomatic cable strongly discouraging countries from participating in a UN conference on a two-state solution between Israel and Palestinians, according to Reuters citing sources. Furthermore, it was stated that the US opposes any steps that would unilaterally recognise a conjectural Palestinian state and opposes implied support of conference for potential actions, including sanctions against Israel.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
EU proposed sanctioning two small China banks for Russia trade, according to Bloomberg.
Russian President Putin said special attention should be paid to the nuclear triad in the new state arms programme.
OTHER
Pentagon reportedly launched a review to decide if the US should scrap AUKUS, according to FT.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB’s situation is favourable and it doesn’t mean that policy is static.
DATA RECAP
UK RICS Housing Survey (May) -8.0 vs. Exp. -4.0 (Prev. -3.0)
UK RICS House Buyer Demand (May) -26 vs (Prev. -32)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
China Resumes U.S. Propane Imports, Easing Fears Of Plastic Plant Shutdowns
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 – 08:10 PM
In April, we warned that the U.S.-China trade war was pushing the global economy toward a breaking point, particularly in one critical area: the plastics supply chain.
Fast forward to this week: trade tensions continue to ease as U.S. and Chinese officials met in London and reached a preliminary framework to resolve key trade disputes.
Here’s UBS’ takeaway on positive trade headlines coming out of London:
The U.S. and China agreed the parameters of trading arrangements on May 12, but each side has since accused the other of failing to meet the requirements they set. This week U.S. and China officials have held new talks in London that concluded late Tuesday. In effect, the talks created a London framework under which the Geneva framework can be applied. In reality, it comes down to China agreeing to greater exports of rare earths to the U.S.; and the U.S. agreeing to ensure China maintains access to U.S. chips. Note – it’s a very, very long way from a trade deal. All that’s been agreed between the two European meetings is a de-escalation and some attempt to allow each country to get on with its work. The next steps are a period of time for each side to consider whether the other is now meeting its requirements and if each is, then that opens the door to talks on broad trade arrangements. Coming up in early August is the expiry of the 90-day tariff reprieve Trump allowed on China after the Geneva agreement.
Returning to China, the world’s top plastics manufacturer, which relies heavily on U.S. ethane, a key petrochemical feedstock and natural gas component, trade war tensions in April posed a serious threat to those U.S. supply lines.
As we noted at the time, disruptions were already unfolding, risking feedstock shortages that could have idled Chinese plastic plants. And given that nearly everything today is made of plastic in the modern economy—and often in Chinese sweatshops—a prolonged supply shock had the potential to spark turmoil globally.
Now, with trade tensions easing, Bloomberg reports that Chinese plastics manufacturers are cautiously increasing their purchases of U.S. propane.
At least four U.S. cargoes were bought in June—up from May—driven in part by more competitive U.S. pricing.
Notably, one Chinese plant secured a July shipment at an $8/ton premium to the Argus Far East Index, down from a recent high of $22.
For now, China has resumed receiving petrochemical feedstocks from the U.S., easing concerns about mass plastic plant shutdowns in the world’s second-largest economy—at least temporarily.
CHINA USA
Why on earth did the USA put themselves in this mess?
Beijing Puts Six-Month Limit On Rare Earth Exports To US If Trade Talks Collapse Again
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 – 12:36 PM
Finally some actual detail around what was actually agreed upon during yesterday’s trade talks.
With questions swirling about the fate of Chinese rare earth exports to the US under the “framework”, the WSJ reports that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for U.S. automakers and manufacturers, giving Beijing leverage if trade tensions flare up again while adding to uncertainty for American industry.
Chinese negotiators agreed to the temporary restorations of the licenses after the latest round of intense talks with their American counterparts in London, aimed at upholding an interim agreement forged in Geneva last month.
In exchange, the U.S. negotiators agreed to relax some recent restrictions on the sale to China of products such as jet engines and related parts, as well as ethane, a component of natural gas important in manufacturing plastics.
According to people who consult with senior Chinese officials, Beijing wants to keep its chokehold on the supply of such critical commodities as leverage for future negotiations and when, not if, trade relations turns sour again.
During the London meetings, China agreed to approve rare-earth license applications for U.S. companies right away, pending the signoff of President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the trade framework. The earliest an application could be approved is within a week of the two leaders officially signing off on the framework originally established in meetings last month in Geneva.
The WSJ source noted that as China approves the applications, the US will start to drop its countermeasures, including export controls on the jet engines and ethane.
In other words, the US now has six months to create its own rare earths supply chain or else Beijing will be able to use this trump card during the next negotations.
Trump said Wednesday that the deal with China to restore the trade cease-fire was done, subject to final approval from himself and the Chinese leader. “FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, without giving additional details on the Chinese commitment.
China’s grip on rare-earth exports has become a key point of leverage for Beijing in trade negotiations with the U.S. In the wake of the trade truce in Geneva in mid-May that was expected to ease the flow, Washington accused Beijing of slow-walking export licenses. Beijing, in turn, blamed the Trump administration for undermining the Geneva agreement.
As part of the trade framework, the temporary rare-earths licenses Beijing is expected to start issuing immediately will mostly involve elements used in manufacturing electric vehicles, wind turbines, consumer electronics and military equipment.
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
UK/ICC COURT
now Britain threatens to withdraw from the iCC over Israel war crimes probe. Finally the UK gets it right
(zerohedge)
Britain Threatened To Withdraw From ICC Over Israel War Crimes Prob
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Hungary created a stir when in early April it withdrew from the International Criminal Court (ICC), expressing outrage over The Hague-based court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
But a new report has revealed that Britain too had threatened to defund and withdraw from the ICC if it issued the arrest warrants for the Israeli leaders.
A fresh report in Middle East Eye has revealed that then foreign secretary David Cameron made the threat in April 2024. This reportedly came during a tense and angry phone call with the British chief prosecutor of the court, Karim Khan.
While this UK threat had not been made public at the time, a statement by Khan had warned, “I insist that all attempts to impede, intimidate or improperly influence the officials of this Court must cease immediately.”
He urged that the court must be allowed to carry out their work with “full independence and impartiality.” Thus it seems that ‘interference’ in part came from London, though it was widely assumed at the time that it was only Israeli officials trying to sabotage the court’s work.
MEE can reveal details of the call based on information from a number of sources – including former staff in Khan’s office familiar with the conversation and who have seen the minutes of the meeting.
Cameron told Khan that applying for warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant would be “like dropping a hydrogen bomb”.
Cameron said it was one thing to investigate and prosecute Russia for a “war of aggression” on Ukraine, but quite another to prosecute Israel when it was “defending itself from the attacks of 7 October”.
He claimed the warrants would have “profound implications” in Britain and within his own Conservative Party. Cameron then said that if the ICC issued warrants for Israeli leaders, the UK would “defund the court and withdraw from the Rome Statute”.
Of course, Britain didn’t actually end up withdrawing, but the episode underscores the total loyalty that the US and UK have for their ally Israel, and that their essentially seems to be a ‘blank check’ for Tel Aviv’s actions.
Cameron while secretly clashing with the ICC’s Khan had at one point questioned why the ICC wouldn’t prosecute Iranian leaders for launching attacks on Israel. Cameron charged the the ICC was “losing the plot”.
GERMANY
FRANCE
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/GAZA MILITANTS HAMAS
(THE GUARDIAN)
Hamas has killed 50 Palestinian fighters armed by Israel in Gaza, faction’s associates say
Militia led by Yasser abu Shabab says Israeli troops stepped in to defend the militia gang backed by its forces
Lorenzo Tondo and Jamal Risheq in JerusalemWed 11 Jun 2025 05.00 BSTShare
Hamas has killed 50 fighters in recent months from a Palestinian gang armed by Israel in Gaza, according to a statement released amid reports that Israeli troops directly intervened this week to protect the faction.
According to media reports in Israel, clashes between Hamas fighters and members of a militia led by Yasser abu Shabab, known locally for his involvement in criminal activity, erupted early on Tuesday in Rafah.
The Israeli news channel i24 reported that Israeli soldiers had clashed with Hamas members in order to protect Abu Shabab from being killed, which resulted in deaths on both sides.
Israeli defence officials acknowledged last week that they had been arming the group, with the aim of undermining Hamas. Aid workers said the group had a long history of looting from UN trucks.
This week, an Israeli air force drone struck four Hamas militants in what i24 described as “the first Israeli strike on Gaza whose sole objective was to assist the Abu Shabab militia”, which it claimed was providing security to aid trucks passing from the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.
On Tuesday, in a long statement released to the press, Abu Shabab’s militia, named the Anti-Terror Service or Popular Forces, said: “Hamas has killed over 50 of our volunteers, including relatives of our leader, Yasser, as we guarded aid convoys and redistributed supplies that were otherwise destined for corrupt entities linked to Hamas.
‘‘We’ve also cleared explosive remnants from the area – losing members in the process.”
The Israeli news outlet Ynet said Abu Shabab’s militia had also ambushed Hamas members from the “Arrow” unit, which is responsible for targeting collaborators with Israel, killing six of them.
On 7 October 2023, during Hamas’s attack in Israel that ignited the war, Abu Shabab was languishing in a Hamas-run jail in Gaza on charges of drug trafficking. With the outbreak of the conflict, the Palestinian from Rafah managed to leave prison, though the circumstances of his release remain unclear.
His Israeli-armed gang now consists of more than 100 men who operate in eastern Rafah.
Abu Shabab has been nicknamed “the Israeli agent” and described as a traitor on social media in Gaza. Hamas has publicly declared its intent to kill him.
“Had it not been for the intervention of the Zionist air force to protect the traitor Yasser Abu Shabab … he would have been in the grip of the resistance today,” it said in a statement.
“We will pursue the traitors no matter how long it takes and we affirm that the occupation’s protection of him will not last, and we will reach him sooner or later.”
Israeli analysts have warned that the move by Israel to arm Abu Shabab could push Gaza to the brink of a civil war.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Five killed, multiple injuries in Hamas attack on GHF personnel
Several injuries have been reported, and the GHF also stated that team members may have been taken hostage.
Hamas terrorists against backdrop of humanitarian aid trucks. (illustration)(photo credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled, Flash90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 12, 2025 02:25Updated: JUNE 12, 2025 02:32
At least five people have been killed following a Hamas attack on a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) bus transporting over two dozen GHF team members, along with local Palestinians working side-by-side with the US GHF team, the foundation announced Wednesday night.
Several injuries have been reported, and the GHF also stated that team members may have been taken hostage.
The team was on their way to the Khan Yunis distribution centers at the time of the attack.
Hamas has sent repeated threats to GHF workers, Gazans
“This attack did not happen in a vacuum,” the GHF said in a statement, adding that Hamas has sent multiple threats to the team and workers, as well as the civilians receiving aid from the foundation.
Earlier this week, threatening texts that were sent by Hamas to aid workers operating in Gaza, saying that those who continue to partner with Israel’s aid distribution will face severe consequences, were revealed.
Hamas’s warning to aid workers. (credit: SCREENSHOT ACCORDING TO 27A OF COPYRIGHT ACT)
“We are fully aware of everything you are doing, and all your movements are being monitored with extreme precision. You will not be forgiven for your involvement in projects that harm the dignity of our people and serve suspicious agendas under the guise of humanitarian work,” the message read.
“This is your final warning: Continuing down this path will have severe consequences, and you will bear full responsibility for the outcomes of your actions. Stop now, or else.”
This is a developing story.
ISRAEL HAMAS
WEST BANK
IRAN
‘All US Bases Within Our Reach’: Iran Responds To Threats From Washington
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 – 04:50 PM
Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said Wednesday that Tehran will strike US military bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and Washington decides to launch an attack on the Islamic Republic.
“Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don’t come to fruition. If a conflict is imposed on us… all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” Nasirzadeh said during a press conference, warning the US to “leave the region” in the “case of any conflict.”
“We have made very good progress in defense affairs. Our operational forces are fully equipped,” the defense minister added, revealing that Iran recently tested a missile with a two-ton warhead. “[If] a conflict is imposed on us, the casualties of the other party will definitely be much heavier than ours,” he went on to say.
The comments came in response to escalating threats from Washington, coinciding with increased tension in nuclear talks between Iran and the US.
When asked at a hearing of the House of Representatives on Tuesday if Washington is prepared to “respond with overwhelming force to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran,” the chief of US Central Command (CENTCOM) said he has “provided the secretary of defense and the president a wide range of options.”
US President Donald Trump said on the same day in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier that Iran has become “much more aggressive” in nuclear talks. “They’re just asking for things you can’t do. They don’t want to give up what they have to give up,” adding that it is “disappointing” because “the alternative is a very, very dire one.”
Trump said on Monday that he was “less confident” in the ability to reach a deal. Iran has rejected a new US proposal that would significantly constrain its ability to enrich uranium, and has said it will soon put forward a counteroffer. A new round of talks is set to take place in the coming days.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if the negotiations fail. Israel has also drawn up plans for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
In a phone call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, the US president said he is still pushing for a deal, adding that an Israeli attack on Iran would be unhelpful and is “off limits” at the moment, according to Hebrew reports.
However, Trump has previously signaled that Israel would play a key role in any attack in the event that nuclear negotiations fail.
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry announced recently that it has obtained thousands of sensitive documents on Israel’s nuclear program. The chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, said the intel will provide Iran with an advantage if it is forced to respond to an Israeli attack.
end
US On High Alert In Anticipation Of Potential Israeli Strike On Iran, WaPo Reports
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 – 04:40 PM
Is something brewing amid US-Iran tensions, given the stalled nuclear negotiations and ratcheting accusations, demands, and counter-demands?
The State Department has ordered all embassies within striking distance of Iranian assets – including missions in the Middle East but also Eastern Europe and Northern Africa – to convene emergency action committees (EACs) and send cables back to Washington about measures to mitigate risks. The Associated Press also adds that the US Embassy in Baghdad is preparing to order all nonessential personnel to leave due to potential regional unrest.
“We are constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies,” said a State Department official who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. “Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq.”
Meanwhile the WaPo – a conduit for the deep state – writes that “the United States is on high alert in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, with the State Department authorizing the evacuation of some personnel in Iraq and the Pentagon green-lighting the departure of military family members across the Middle East.”
The heightened security environment comes as President Donald Trump expresses dimming hopes of achieving a deal with Iran that would restrict its nuclear program and forestall a potentially cataclysmal new military confrontation in the Middle East.
“I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,” Trump told the New York Post.
In recent months, U.S. intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned that Israel may choose to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the consent of the United States. Such a move would almost certainly scuttle the Trump administration’s delicate nuclear negotiations and prompt an Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets in the region.
The IDF have elevated their operational readiness. In response, the United States has mirrored this posture, anticipating potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
A senior diplomat, speaking to the Washington Post, stated: “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
The U.S. State Department has directed all embassies within Iranian strike range—including several in Europe, to immediately convene Emergency Action Committees and transmit updated risk assessments to Washington.
The Trump imposed deadline on Iranian nuclear negotiations expires tomorrow, June 12th. U.S. officials speaking to Axios now assess it is increasingly unlikely the sixth round of talks in Oman will proceed as scheduled on Sunday.
General Kurilla, Commander of U.S. Central Command, has postponed his scheduled testimony before Congress due to mounting tensions across the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the region, is working in close coordination with State Department counterparts and allies to maintain a constant state of readiness to support numerous missions at any time, the official added.
“We are watching and worried,” said one senior diplomat in the region. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
Both oil and gold prices spiked on the alarming headlines which suggest new regional conflict could be imminent, with Israel poised to act…
Gold gaining…
Meanwhile, Iran has urged the United States to prioritize a negotiated solution, with its mission to the United Nations saying that “diplomacy — not militarism — is the only path forward.”
“Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, and U.S. militarism only fuels instability,” the Iranian mission warned in a social media statement.
President Trump has definitely expressed his preference for negotiated solution, but Iran insists that it be able to keep enriching uranium, at least at low levels, as a matter of national sovereignty.
Iran and the United States are tentatively scheduled to hold a sixth round of direct talks in Oman on Sunday between U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with discussions between their technical teams. But people familiar with the planning said Wednesday that it is possible that talks may not happen.
Trump has described the negotiations, which began in April, as heading in a positive direction and has said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any military plans. But on Wednesday, Trump said he was “less confident” that Iran would agree to U.S. demands that it completely shut down its nuclear enrichment program.
“They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame,” he said. He has frequently said that Iran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and threatened military action if an agreement is not reached.
In a post on X Wednesday, Araghchi said that Trump’s demand that Iran not develop a nuclear weapon “is actually in line with our own doctrine and could become the main foundation for a deal. … It is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program is within reach — and could be achieved rapidly,” he said.
Although Witkoff indicated early in the negotiations that some kind of compromise could be reached allowing Iran to continue producing a small quantity of low-level enriched uranium for civil purposes, the administration has since rejected that possibility.
The escalating tension comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors is meeting in Vienna, where Director General Rafael Grossi reported Tuesday that Iran has dramatically increased the amount of near weapons-grade material it possesses.
In a contentious meeting Wednesday, Iran’s envoy to the agency, Reza Najafi, charged the Europeans with violating the decade-old agreement, which technically still remains in effect, claiming they failed to lift all of their own sanctions when the original deal was struck.
In a separate post Wednesday, Araghchi said that “instead of displaying remorse or a desire to facilitate diplomacy,” the Europeans were “promoting confrontation through the absurd demand that Iran must be punished for exercising its right” under the agreement “to respond to non-performance by counterparts.”
If the IAEA governors proceed with plans to vote on a resolution against Iran at the end of their week-long meeting Friday, Araghchi said, Iran will “react STRONGLY. Blame will lie solely and FULLY with malign actors who shatter their own relevance.”
END
IRAN/ISRAEL
Israel considering striking Iran in coming days – without US support – report
Additionally, on Wednesday, the US authorized the evacuation of certain personnel in Iraq in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran.
An illustration of war between Israel and Iran(photo credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)BySHIR PERETSJUNE 12, 2025 01:56Updated: JUNE 12, 2025 10:54
Israel is considering taking military action against Iran, most likely without US support, in the coming days, five sources told NBC on Thursday.
This comes shortly after a CBS report in which multiple sources stated that Israel has told US officials that it is “fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.”
A “friendly” regional country alerted Tehran over a potential military strike, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday, adding that Iran will not abandon its right to uranium enrichment because of mounting frictions in the region.
The official said the tensions were intended to “influence Tehran to change its position about its nuclear rights” during talks with the United States on Sunday in Muscat, which were confirmed to be taking place by the Omani Foreign Minister on Thursday morning.
Additionally, the US on Wednesday authorized the evacuation of certain personnel in Iraq in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran.
The Pentagon also green-lit the departure of military family members across the Middle East.
The US Embassy in Baghdad advised American citizens on Thursday against traveling to Iraq, Reuters reported.
US military dependents leaving the region does not constitute a threat, a senior Iranian security official told Iran’s Press TV on Thursday, in response to the news.
Talks to continue despite doubts over Iran
US Vice President JD Vance said at the Kennedy Center on Wednesday that he did not know if Iran wanted a nuclear weapon, shortly after a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post there is “definitely a chance” that a sixth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran will not take place.
US President Donald Trump addressed the situation on his way to the Kennedy Center, telling a reporter who asked why dependents of US military personnel are being authorized to leave the Middle East, “You’ll have to see, thank you.”
“[US personnel in the Middle East] are being moved out. It could be a dangerous place. We’ll see what happens. Iran can not have a nuclear weapon. We won’t allow it,” he later stated.
Trump previously expressed his lack of hope of achieving a deal. “I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,” Trump told The New York Post.
Tensions in the Middle East have also led to CENTCOM head US Army General Michael “Erik” Kurilla postponing the testimony he was set to give in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Reuters reported.
Iran recently threatened to strike US bases if negotiations fail
If nuclear negotiations fail and conflict arises with the United States, Iran will strike American bases in the region, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said on Wednesday.
“Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don’t come to fruition. If a conflict is imposed on us… all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” Nasirzadeh said during a press conference.
Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran with bombing if it does not reach a new nuclear deal, including a post on Truth Social stating that “in the days ahead… the US Army will heap glory upon glory.”
“You will protect every inch of US soil – and you will defend America to the ends of the earth!” Trump wrote.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
IRAN/IAEA
IAEA board declares Iran in breach of non-proliferation duties, diplomats say
The board found that Iran’s many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019, constitute non-compliance, the IAEA said in its resolution.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi holds a news conference after the first day of the agency’s quarterly Board of Governors meeting at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria, June 9, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/LISA LEUTNER)ByREUTERS, AMICHAI STEINJUNE 12, 2025 11:23Updated: JUNE 12, 2025 11:51
The UN nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution on Thursday formally declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years, diplomats at the closed-door meeting said.
“(The board) Finds that Iran’s many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the Agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran … constitutes non-compliance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement with the Agency,” the International Atomic Energy Agency board resolution text seen by Reuters said.
Diplomats at the closed-door meeting said the board passed the resolution submitted by the United States, Britain, France and Germany with 19 countries in favor, 11 abstentions and three states – Russia, China and Burkina Faso – against.
A central issue is Iran’s failure to provide the IAEA with credible explanations of how uranium traces detected at undeclared sites in Iran came to be there despite the agency having investigated the issue for years.
The May 31 IAEA report, a board-mandated “comprehensive” account of developments, found three of the four locations “were part of an undeclared structured nuclear program carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material.”
A missile is launched during a joint exercise called the ‘Great Prophet 17’, in the southwest of Iran, December 24, 2021. Picture taken December 24, 2021. (credit: SAEED SAJJADI/FARS NEWS/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)VIA REUTERS)
U.S. intelligence services and the IAEA have long believed Iran had a secret, coordinated nuclear weapons program it halted in 2003, though isolated experiments continued for several years. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said this week the findings were broadly consistent with that.
Iran denies ever having pursued nuclear weapons.
What comes next?
While the resolution alluded to reporting Iran to the UN Security Council, diplomats said it would take a second resolution to send it there, as happened the last time it was declared in non-compliance in September 2005, followed by referral in February 2006.
This major step is the culmination of several festering stand-offs between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran that have arisen since President Donald Trump pulled the US out of a nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers in 2018 during his first term, after which that deal unravelled.
Since Iran bristles at resolutions against it and this is the most significant one in years, it is likely to respond with a nuclear escalation, as it has said it will. That could complicate the current talks between Iran and the U.S. aimed at imposing new curbs on Iran’s accelerating atomic activities.
Snapback mechanism may be implemented, angering Iran further
The next step following this decision will be to see if the snapback mechanism will be activated. The same sanctions will be imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council.
Iran has threatened to take action related to its nuclear program if the decision is passed, and even if the snapback mechanism is activated.
Iran has already decided on two measures in response to the IAEA’s decision.
The first is opening up a new enrichment site in a safe zone, and the second is substituting first-generation centrifuges in Fordow with sixth-generation centrifuges.
Tehran has condemned the IAEA resolution, calling it a “political” decision, without technical or legal foundations, reported Iranian state TV agency TASS, according to Reuters.
The sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran are set to take place this Sunday in Muscat, the Omani Foreign Minister confirmed on Thursday morning.
END
Iran ‘leaks’ documents to discredit nuclear chief Grossi as it faces IAEA, sanctions threats
Grossi has – though slowly – demanded answers from Iran to explain illicit nuclear materials and refusing to accept partial answers that he called “not credible.”
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi against backdrop of an Iranian missile.(photo credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS, REUTERS/LISA LEUTNER)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJUNE 12, 2025 10:08Updated: JUNE 12, 2025 11:53
Leaking materials it obtained, possibly by hacking, to the Iran View 24 outlet, Iran lashed out on Thursday with a personal attack on both IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi and Israeli Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency Merav Zafary-Odiz.
Facing likely condemnation and possibly eventually global snapback sanctions against it from a mix of the IAEA Board of Governors, key European countries who are IAEA members, and the UN Security Council, Tehran is seeking to discredit Grossi and his recent negative reports against it.
Although the US and Israel have sometimes viewed Grossi as too neutral regarding the Islamic Republic and too unwilling to call it out for nuclear violations, Iran has viewed Grossi as increasingly siding with Israel.
The core point of anger for Tehran against Grossi is that once he took over the IAEA in late 2019, he started to pressure it harder about the military aspects of its nuclear program, which the Mossad revealed when it seized Iran’s nuclear archives in 2018.
Grossi’s predecessor, Yukiya Amano, had been much more passive in addressing these allegations, receiving documents from the Mossad in mid-2018, but not taking almost any actions to follow up on the documents and allegations for several months, and not visiting certain illicit undeclared nuclear sites until almost mid-2019.
A model of an Iranian missile is seen during a gathering in Tehran, Iran, April 9, 2025 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Grossi has taken an increasingly tough stance on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, explanations
In contrast, Grossi has, though slowly, demanded answers from Iran to explain illicit nuclear materials the IAEA found at sites like Turquzabad, as well as other issues at the Varamin and Marivan sites, refusing to accept partial answers that he called “not credible.”
All of this, along with the Trump administration and Israel’s new pressure on Tehran, as well as that the chance to snapback sanctions on Iran will expire in October, has led to an escalation with the Islamic Republic.
Despite its claims to have smoking gun evidence against Israel and Grossi, the documents leaked to Iran View 24 are either publicly available records regarding Grossi’s visits to Israel, while he also visits Tehran, or letters and emails between him and Zafary-Odiz to hold routine consultations.
There are also personal emails from Zafary-Odiz, which may have been hacked, about her activities in favor of Israel’s positions and against Iran’s positions – standard activities for an Israeli diplomat.
Nothing in the report actually shows that Grossi departed from his duty to neutrally analyze evidence brought to his attention by all parties.
Also, Grossi has been clear that the IAEA did not just accept the Mossad documents, but performed its own independent review and check
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
Israel needs the Iron Beam to be incorporated into the mix right now to thwart the following;
Israel faces growing UAV threat from Hezbollah’s expanding arsenal
While Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah’s UAV capabilities, Barri explained, much of the infrastructure remains intact.
PEOPLE GATHER in Tehran to mourn the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israel Air Force strike in Lebanon, in September. The IAF also destroyed much of the missile arsenal of the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy, the writer notes.(photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)ByPELED ARBELIJUNE 12, 2025 16:41Updated: JUNE 12, 2025 16:45
Tal Barri, Head of the Research Department at the Alma Research Institute for Northern Security Challenges, recently spoke to Maariv about Hezbollah’s expanding UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) capabilities, warning of significant changes influenced by Iran’s involvement and the lessons Hezbollah has drawn from the Ukraine-Russia War.
In a comprehensive interview published Thursday, Barri highlighted the potential transformation of Hezbollah’s UAV unit. “Strengthening Hezbollah’s UAV fleet, particularly the suicide drones within it, is a key takeaway from the recent war,” Barri explained.
“The shift from a potential strategic threat to an actual one is driven by the quantity, quality, and operational deployment of these UAVs. The Iranians have learned to deploy them in large numbers simultaneously, a departure from their previous use.”
Barri further explained that “the Iranians made a strategic decision to rebuild Hezbollah following the last war, focusing on two primary elements: smuggling weapons and establishing an independent weapons manufacturing capability on Lebanese soil.”
He also addressed recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon. “On June 5, 2025, Israel targeted several Hezbollah sites belonging to the organization’s air unit, Unit 127, which is responsible for UAV development and production. These strikes were aimed at locations in Dahieh, Beirut, and Ain Qana, in southern Lebanon. All these sites were located beneath or near civilian buildings.”
A drone carries a Hezbollah flag, May 21, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/AZIZ TAHER)
“These sites were used to manufacture, assemble, and store hundreds of UAVs. The intensity and location of the attacks during the ceasefire period, particularly in Dahieh, underscore the importance of these sites and demonstrate Hezbollah’s determination, with Iranian assistance, to rebuild,” he said.
Clear intentions
Barri warned that Hezbollah’s intentions are clear. “According to various reports, Iran and Hezbollah intended to produce thousands of suicide UAVs at the manufacturing sites that were attacked. Based on lessons learned from the recent war, Iran and Hezbollah plan to create redundancy and operational flexibility, enabling large-scale UAV deployments in the future,” Barri said.
Barri also pointed to the broader geopolitical context, particularly Iran’s role in supporting Russia. “Iran has become a key supplier of precision firepower for Russia, including both UAVs and missiles. Iranian advisors are physically present on the battlefield in Europe, fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukraine. From this experience, they are learning critical lessons regarding weapons deployment, tactics, and strategy.”
“A key lesson Iran has learned is from Russia’s use of suicide UAVs — launching dozens or even hundreds of different UAVs simultaneously towards a designated urban area with targets, causing extensive damage to infrastructure, property, and lives,” Barri said.
The Alma Institute had previously raised concerns about this trend. “As early as October 2022, we identified a dramatic and worrying shift: Iran had become a primary supplier of precision firepower to Russia. We continued to track this development in articles published in January 2023 and March 2024, where we documented Russia’s growing arsenal of missiles and UAVs based on Iranian technology and knowledge.”
However, Barri noted that Hezbollah has yet to fully utilize the potential of these UAVs. “Although Hezbollah’s UAVs were seen as a strategic threat before the war, in practice, despite some damage, they have only posed a tactical threat so far. Hezbollah has not yet succeeded in launching swarms of UAVs capable of causing significant destruction. Most launches consisted of one or two suicide UAVs at a time, targeting specific areas, with a maximum of four UAVs deployed in each attack.”
Now, Barri warns that Hezbollah and Iran are planning a significant change in their operational strategy. “We assess that Iran and Hezbollah are preparing to alter their tactics ahead of the next conflict with Israel. They have learned from Russia’s model: the ideal method is to flood the skies with UAV swarms, making it harder for Israel’s defense systems to intercept them simultaneously.”
Barri explains that Hezbollah has been using UAVs for over 25 years, gaining substantial experience. “Since the 1990s, Hezbollah has operated UAVs in Lebanon, Syria, and particularly against Israel. This experience, especially during the Syrian Civil War, has played a major role in enhancing Hezbollah’s UAV capabilities.”
Regarding UAV numbers, Barri noted significant growth: “In 2006, Hezbollah had dozens of UAVs. By 2013, we estimate about 200. In 2016, around 800. In 2021, approximately 2,000. By October 2023, we estimate Hezbollah had around 2,500 operational UAVs.”
While Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah’s UAV capabilities, Barri explained, much of the infrastructure remains intact: “Despite Israel’s efforts to damage Hezbollah’s UAV network, we estimate that the group still possesses hundreds of operational UAVs. To implement the ‘Russian model,’ Hezbollah needs thousands of UAVs, which is why there is significant emphasis on rebuilding their independent production capabilities in Lebanon.”
Barri concludes by highlighting the ongoing threat posed by Hezbollah’s UAV development: “Despite the damage done, we believe there are still UAV production and assembly sites in Lebanon, and more will likely be established in the future. We expect UAV production to continue. As shown by the June 2025 strikes, Iran will continue prioritizing the rebuilding of Hezbollah’s UAV fleet, dedicating substantial resources to this effort.”
Finally, Barri emphasized the gravity of the situation: “We are at a critical juncture. The goal is to turn Hezbollah’s UAV capabilities into a real strategic threat. This is the reality that is unfolding before us.”See more on
SYRIA/ISRAEL
Syrian girl receives life-saving treatment at Rambam Hospital in Haifa
The evacuation and treatment of Syrians at Israeli hospitals have been a part of ongoing humanitarian initiatives, with full approval from military censors to ensure safety and well-being.
Israeli soldiers and medical staff at the underground hospital at the Rambam Hospital in Haifa, on September 22, 2024(photo credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 12, 2025 16:34Updated: JUNE 12, 2025 16:36
A 12-year-old Syrian girl who was critically ill due to a heart problem received life-saving treatment at Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa last week, following a joint humanitarian effort between the IDF and the “Yitro – Jews for Druze” association.
The young girl was evacuated from southern Syria last Thursday and brought to the Ruth Rappaport Children’s Hospital at Rambam.
She was in a life-threatening condition, requiring urgent medical care. Accompanied by her mother, the girl underwent a medical procedure in the pediatric intensive care unit to treat her heart issue.
After four days of intensive care, her condition improved significantly, and she was released in stable condition.
Following her discharge from the hospital, the girl was transferred back to the IDF, which arranged for her safe return to a meeting point in southern Syria to reunite with her father.
A torn poster showing former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the Sayyidah Zaynab district in Damascus, Syria, December 14, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/AMR ALFIKY)
Humanitarian effort made possible by the IDF
Mr. Amnon Bartel, chairman of the Yitro Association, expressed his gratitude to the IDF for making the operation possible and praised Rambam Health Care Campus for its professional medical care. “This complex and moving humanitarian effort exemplifies our commitment to saving lives. Rambam and the Yitro Foundation will continue to work together to provide medical excellence and support to those in need,” said Bartel.
The evacuation and treatment of Syrians at Israeli hospitals have been a part of ongoing humanitarian initiatives, with full approval from military censors to ensure the safety and well-being of all parties involved.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
June 13, 5:34 AM
Israel strikes Nabatieh, Tebna areas, one killed – report
Israeli warplanes on Thursday reportedly struck the areas of Tebna and Rihan in Lebanon, Hezbollah-affiliated media Al Manar reported.
Al Manar reported that one person was killed in an airstrike in the town of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.
ISRAEL/HAMAS QATAR IRAN
IDF Uncovers Iran, Qatar and Hamas Plot to Undermine Israeli-Palestinian Peace
Documents seized in Gaza expose years of secret financial, military, and diplomatic cooperation against Israel.
June 11, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
In a major intelligence breakthrough, the IDF has uncovered documents in Gaza that reveal the full extent of the covert alliance between Hamas, Iran, and Qatar aimed at destabilizing Israel and sabotaging any chance of Israeli-Palestinian peace.
The documents, first reported by Israel’s Channel 12, provide detailed insight into how Qatar funneled millions of dollars to Hamas leadership in secrecy. In one striking exchange from May 2021, then-Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh informed Gaza’s Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar that Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani had discreetly pledged financial support. Haniyeh noted that while the emir was willing to provide funds, he insisted that “no one in the world” should be aware of this support. By that time, $11 million had already been transferred to Hamas’s leadership.
In response, Sinwar wrote a letter to Al Thani, dedicating Hamas’s military campaign victory to the Qatari ruler and emphasizing Hamas’s military needs. Sinwar boasted about sidelining Egyptian mediation efforts during that conflict, stating that Qatar had replaced Egypt as Hamas’s key diplomatic sponsor.
A 2019 communique further demonstrated the deep ties between Hamas and Qatar. Haniyeh referred to Qatar as Hamas’s “main artery,” underscoring the emirate’s central role in empowering the terror group. Israeli intelligence officials now believe this sustained support helped lay the groundwork for the October 7, 2023 massacre the deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust.
The documents also shed light on Qatar’s involvement in undermining U.S.-led peace efforts. In June 2019, shortly after President Donald Trump unveiled his Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal, Al Thani hosted Hamas leaders for an emergency meeting to plot ways to block the plan. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal urged the emir, “We need to cooperate in order to resist the ‘deal of the century’ and thwart it.” Al Thani pledged Qatar’s full cooperation, making it clear that Doha stood firmly against normalization with Israel.
Internal Hamas documents warned that any Qatari normalization with Israel would mean “the elimination of the Palestinian national project.” Qatar remained closely aligned with Hamas’s hardline position, rejecting any diplomatic progress that might lead to peace.
The files also reveal extensive coordination with Iran. Qatar facilitated travel for Hamas leaders to attend the funeral of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020. Hamas leaders acknowledged that Iran had no interest in peace or normalization and demanded that Hamas avoid ties with any country aligned with the U.S. or Israel.
One 2022 letter from Sinwar to Haniyeh called for preparing a broad campaign with Iran, Qatar, and Turkey as leading partners. Sinwar instructed that their goal must be to “make it hard for the occupation to breathe and ensure the severing of international actors’ diplomatic ties with them.”
The uncovered diary notes of Haniyeh, who was eliminated by Israel in 2024 during a targeted operation in Tehran, further detail this tripartite alliance that sought to expand Iranian and Turkish influence while eroding Egypt’s diplomatic role in the region.
These findings leave no doubt about the direct financial, military, and diplomatic support Hamas has received for years from Iran and Qatar, with Turkey playing a secondary role. The complex web of secret meetings, financial transfers, and coordinated opposition to peace exposes how deeply committed these actors remain to fueling conflict rather than resolving it.
While the world debates Israel’s right to defend itself, these documents offer irrefutable evidence of the forces working in unison to destroy any hope for peaceful coexistence. Israel remains vigilant, determined, and unyielding in the face of this sinister alliance.
Share this story or subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed about Israel’s ongoing fight for its security and future.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia Won’t End Ukraine War Until NATO Pulls Forces Out Of Eastern Flank
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 02:45 AM
A top Kremlin official was quoted in Newsweek this week warning that Russia won’t end the Ukraine war until NATO pulls its troops out of the Baltic and ‘eastern flank’ states.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov demanded that NATO must withdraw its troops from the Baltic region. Russia has long seen the Baltics as very near, and its sphere of influence, also given its territory of of Kaliningrad.
“The American side requires practical steps aimed at eliminating the root causes of the fundamental contradictions between us in the area of security,” he had said, originally in state TASS.
“Among these causes, NATO expansion is in the foreground,” he emphasized. “Without resolving this fundamental and most acute problem for us, it is simply impossible to resolve the current conflict in the Euro-Atlantic region.”
NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ closer to the start of the Ukraine war – forces have since grown…
“Given the nature and genesis of the Ukrainian crisis, provoked by the previous U.S. authorities and the West as a whole, this conflict naturally acts, well, if you like, as a test, a trial, which checks the seriousness of Washington’s intentions to straighten out our relations,” he said.
Ryabkov said Moscow’s position all along has been that the Western military alliance “not deploy strike weapons near Russian border.”
“In any case, reducing NATO’s Eastern European contingent would likely boost the security of the whole continent,” he concluded.
Such a broader ultimatum was actually issued just before the full-scale invasion, but was not heeded. In fact, countries like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have only grown more hawkish and vocal in their anti-Moscow rhetoric, and have even taken legal action against the Russian Orthodox Church in the Baltics.
A very provocative and sensational alert issued by German intelligence…
Newsweek has meanwhile reviewed that “NATO maintains a strong military presence on its eastern flank in Europe, with multinational battle groups and brigades stationed in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.”
* * *
Michael Every of Rabobank has commented the following of this renewed Kremlin demand…
In geopolitics, Russia warned it won’t end the Ukraine war until NATO pulls its troops out of the Baltic states. Whatever asset you look at, take a step back and think about that for a moment.
Is that a bluff – how can you know? Does it mean the EU surrendering those states back to Russian influence – and where afterwards? That’s the end of the EU as we know it, let alone the version that breezily states it wants to expand to Moldova, next to a Russian client state, and Georgia, next to Russia itself.
Or it implies a permanent state of EU-Russia hostility —the latter not with “an economy the size of Italy”, but a war economy with a purchasing power parity of $7 trillion and a world of physical resources— with profound implications for both sides socio-politically, economically, and financially.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GOOD PEOPLE AS VACCINE ADVISORY PANEL
RFK Jr. Announces New Members Of Vaccine Advisory Panel
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has chosen eight new members for the panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines.
The new members of the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) include Dr. Joseph Hibbeln, a psychiatrist and neuroscientist who is acting chief of the Section on Nutritional Neurosciences at the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent messenger ribonucleic acid technology; and Dr. Cody Meissner, a pediatrics professor at Dartmouth College and former ACIP member, Kennedy announced on June 11.
“All of these individuals are committed to evidence-based medicine, gold-standard science, and common sense. They have each committed to demanding definitive safety and efficacy data before making any new vaccine recommendations,” he said in a statement.
Malone said on social media platform X that he was honored to be named to the committee. “I will do my best to serve with unbiased objectivity and rigor,” he wrote.
The other new members are:
Dr. Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist and biostatistician who helped found Hillsdale College’s Academy for Science and Freedom.
Retsef Levi, a professor of operations management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management who holds a PhD in operations research.
Dr. James Pagano, an emergency medicine doctor.
Vicky Pebsworth, who holds a PhD in public health and nursing, and is a regional director of the National Association of Catholic Nurses.
Dr. Michael Ross, a clinical professor of obstetrics and gynecology at George Washington University and Virginia Commonwealth University.
Levi told The Epoch Times that while he believes the outgoing ACIP panelists “applied their best judgment and did it with the very best of intentions and based on very deep expertise,” the secretary’s reforms are based on “a broader sentiment that the process by which we evaluate the safety and benefits of drugs, and specifically vaccines, can be improved and can be more transparent and also more trustworthy by the public.”
He added that he views the role of ACIP members as “giving advice based on their best judgment.”
“The advice might not be uniform, the advice might be nuanced and might be diverse. And then there are decision-makers and policy-makers that take the responsibility, and they will have to make their best judgment based on the opinions that they hear and the data that they see—they will have to make decisions,” he said.
“I think that scientists should stay in the role of analyzing the science and reflecting what the science suggests. And the same scientists should not be the decision-makers.”
Having worked with academics, clinicians, and patients in the health care system across his career, Levi said he hopes to bring his experience with data-driven frameworks for balancing “different types of risks and different types of benefits.”
He said that modern advances should now allow for “the aspect of personalization” in medicine.
“We want to think about those risks and benefits in the personalized context of individual patients or groups of patients that may have different characteristics, different desires, different wishes, different cultures,” Levi said. “And we really want to think about it in a way that will allow them to make the best choices for their own health, together with their physicians.”
Kennedy heads the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency. The department on June 9 notified the 17 previous members of their dismissals.
“The Committee will no longer function as a rubber stamp for industry profit-taking agendas,” Kennedy said in a statement at the time.
The ACIP is a panel convened by the CDC to offer advice about vaccines, including childhood and adult immunization schedules.
Members “are knowledgeable in the fields of immunization practices and public health, have expertise in the use of vaccines and other immunobiologic agents in clinical practice or preventive medicine, have expertise with clinical or laboratory vaccine research, or have expertise in assessment of vaccine efficacy and safety,” according to the committee’s charter.
Kennedy told reporters in Washington this week that the new members would be credentialed scientists and doctors “who are going to do evidence-based medicine, who are going to be objective, and who are going to follow the science and make critical public health determinations for our children based upon the best science.”
Some Members Were Paid by Pharmaceutical Companies
Eight of the members whom Kennedy fired had been paid by pharmaceutical companies in the past, according to an Epoch Times review of disclosures and payment information.
Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, for instance, whose term started in 2024, received $4.6 million in research funding from Pfizer and $39,547 in payments from Pfizer and Merck in recent years. Her conflict of interest disclosures stated that she worked on clinical trials for Pfizer’s meningococcal, COVID-19, and RSV vaccines and that she abstained from related votes.
Other previous members received thousands of dollars from Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Valneva, Merck, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, and Boehringer Ingelheim.
Most of the funding, but not all, came before the members joined the panel. Dr. Helen Keipp Talbot’s term started in 2018, and she reported receiving $7,500 in research funding and $4,662 in payments from Sanofi in 2019.
An email to Talbot returned an automated message directing requests for comment to a spokesman for Vanderbilt University Medical Center, her employer. The spokesman did not return an inquiry.
Kennedy has criticized members over their ties to pharmaceutical companies.
“The committee has been plagued with persistent conflicts of interest and has become little more than a rubber stamp for any vaccine. It has never recommended against a vaccine—even those later withdrawn for safety reasons,” he wrote in an op-ed.
The Department of Health also noted that all 17 members were appointed or had their terms renewed during the Biden administration, and that many were set to serve until 2027 or 2028. Keeping them in place would have meant that the Trump administration could appoint only a minority of members until then, limiting its ability “to take the proper actions to restore public trust in vaccines,” the department said in a statement.
Of the new members, Pagano reported receiving about $4,600 from pharmaceutical companies in recent years; Hibbeln reported receiving $338, including from AbbVie; and Meissner received less than $150 from Sanofi and another firm.
Criticism and Praise
Some doctors and health groups voiced opposition to the terminations.
The move, along with the recent narrowing of COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, “interferes with the practice of evidence-based medicine and destabilizes a trusted source and its evidence-based process for helping guide decision-making for vaccines to protect the public health in our country,” Dr. Jason Goldman, president of the American College of Physicians and the college’s liaison to the advisory committee, said in a statement.
“The decision to suddenly remove all 17 members of the CDC independent advisory committee in one sweeping move is deeply damaging to confidence in vaccines that have proven to be safe for decades and in the healthcare providers who counsel patients and their families about immunization decisions every day,” Jason Prevelige, president and chair of the board of directors of the American Academy of Physician Associates, stated.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chairman of the Senate Health Committee, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the top minority member of the panel, also expressed concern about the move.
Others praised the dismissals, including Mary Holland, CEO of Children’s Health Defense, a group that Kennedy chaired before he became health secretary.
“The committee has been riddled with financial conflicts of interest, through research grants, stock portfolios, and patent stakes,” Holland said in a statement. “This change is critical if this committee is to have any future role in advising on vaccines without bias.”
Jan Jekielek contributed to this report.
END
Senators To Propose Ban On Big Pharma Ads As TV Networks Stand To Get Wrecked
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 02:30 PM
Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, both independents, on Thursday will introduce legislation that would ban pharmaceutical companies from promoting prescription drugs directly to consumers – including through television, radio, print, digital platforms, and social media, the WSJ reports.
The proposal would mark a sweeping shift in the U.S. advertising landscape, where pharmaceutical companies are among the largest spenders. Prescription drug brandsaccounted for roughly 13 percent of all ad spending on linear television in 2025, totaling approximately $2.18 billion so far this year, according to iSpotdata. In 2024, the industry spent $3.4 billion on traditional TV ads between January and August alone, according to ad-tracking data.
“The American people don’t want to see misleading and deceptive prescription drug ads on television,” Sanders said in a statement. “They want us to take on the greed of the pharmaceutical industry and ban these bogus ads.”
The legislation follows longstanding criticism from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has repeatedly called for a ban on prescription drug advertising. While running for president, Mr. Kennedy said he would issue an executive order removing pharmaceutical ads from television, citing overmedication and industry influence on news coverage.
“We’re one of only two countries in the world that allow pharmaceutical companies to advertise directly to consumers,” Mr. Kennedy said in a video posted to X. “Everybody agrees it’s a bad idea.”
The United States and New Zealand are currently the only countries that permit direct-to-consumer (DTC) prescription drug ads.
Mr. Sanders and Mr. King, who each voted against Mr. Kennedy’s confirmation, have long expressed skepticism of consumer drug marketing. In February, Mr. King introduced a bill that would prohibit pharmaceutical advertising in the first three years following a drug’s approval.
Other lawmakers from both parties have taken similar steps. In May, Senators Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, and Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat of New Hampshire, introduced legislation to eliminate tax deductions for pharmaceutical consumer advertising.
Since 1997, when the Food and Drug Administration relaxed disclosure requirements for DTC ads, pharmaceutical companies have increasingly leaned on consumer advertising to drive demand. Under current rules, companies need only disclose a drug’s “most important” risks during commercials.
The result has been a media environment saturated with pharmaceutical messaging. Drug ads made up 24.4 percent of all advertising minutes on evening news broadcasts across major networks — including ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and NBC — through May of this year, according iSpot. On CBS Evening News, pharmaceutical companies appeared in more than 70 percent of commercial breaks, per Kantar Media.
The industry has defended the practice. The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, a leading trade group, points to its “guiding principles,” arguing that direct‑to‑consumer ads increase disease awareness, encourage patients to seek treatment, and prompt conversations with doctors.
Any move to ban pharmaceutical advertising could face legal challenges under the First Amendment’s protections for commercial speech.
Still, Mr. Sanders and Mr. King maintain their efforts are necessary to push back against what they describe as an overcommercialized influence on public health messaging.
deadly mRNA technology vaccine, who stayed silent on reverse transcription, on vaccine content dispersing all over body not staying at injection site deltoid, on all key deadly aspects, this GRIFTER?
How could Malone be on the ACIP group? It is the very mRNA vaccines that he has helped bring with criminals Bourla, Bancel, Sahin of Pfizer, Moderna, Weissman, Kariko et al…this is clearly now a clown car circus…between powder puff ‘talk in circles’ Makary as head of FDA who just holds talks for holding talks sake, to Malone? RFK Jr. lost tremendous respect today. I will leave it at that for the rest of the world know Malone is nothing but a high priced grifter, a liar for he took no mRNA vaccine, just a liar, someone who attacked the Freedom Movement because they would pay him no mind, who attacked McCullough, sought to sue so many many, sued Ruby, Breggin et al. came after me yet learnt his lesson…he and his whack job followers.
Bobby Jr., Malone is one of the most inept, unqualified morons out there, reads notes, reads his phone, reads prompters, it was well known in our circle for I was there, he is a dolt…all his substack is other people writings…I know, I was there…he cannot write 3 sentences. cannot hold a conversation without that person at his side finishing his statements and giving him hints, this guy is nothing but pure grift and graft, a sycophant galore and has near zero grasp of conventional immunology, virology, vaccinology…all he says is made up bullocks…he can talk all the shit about being inventor of mRNA technology, but Kariko who got the NOBEL for it and worked with him in lab said he is a fraud, a pure fraud…and over sells himself. did nothing. does not deserve no NOBEL. You should have talked to Kariko who Malone threatened (sounded to me like violence) because she was exposing his crookery.
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Poor move Bobby Jr., you lost stripes in my eyes…this is more about buddy nepotism friendship book signing shit, it disgusts me. I am amazed you would do this. An afront. This idiot Malone said the mRNA vaccine was effective in saving lives and when he realized he was talking bull shit and only shilling for the deaths became clear, he then jumped on the ‘harms’ side. This guy is a pure fraud. FRAUD FRAUD.
Sue me Robert Malone, please, let us enter a court so that you can for once prove who you are. You grifting fraud and you suckered RFK Jr. Like the Means. Bobby Jr., I have respect for you and think you mean good, but this is nepotism cronyism buddy appointment. Poor form by you. Sorry, I call it as I see it. The maker of the mRNA death shot technology is part of an advisory team to approve it? Ha ha ha. I just pissed myself.
Bobby Jr., why don’t you ask Malone for the unambiguous data see below? as he shilled and coerced people to take the shit and people died. Malone has thousands of deaths on his hands. word is too that the photo of him taking the shot was a fraud too.
NEWS ADDICTS
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
ABC News Fires Reporter Terry Moran Over Anti-Trump BiasABC News has fired Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran just days after a lengthy tirade in which he described White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller as being “richly endowed with the capacity for hatred” in a since-deleted X post.Moran’s post was made in reference to President Trump’s decision to deploy 2,000 California National Guard troops for 60 days …READ THE FULL REPORT
Judge Rules on Newsom’s Emergency Motion to Block Trump Troop DeploymentDemocrat California Gov. Gavin Newsom was dealt a judicial defeat after he requested an emergency motion to halt President Donald Trump’s order to use the military to oppose the Los Angeles riots.Newsom named the president, the Defense secretary, and the Department of Defense as defendants in the request, and a judge allowed the defendants 24 hours to file a response …READ THE FULL REPORT
Top LA Official’s Daughters Arrested for Assaulting Cops During RiotsThe 26-year-old twin daughters of a prominent Los Angeles official were among those arrested on Sunday during the violent anti-ICE riots that have plagued the city over the last four days.Rick Cole, the chief deputy controller of Los Angeles, told protesters that his daughters, Lucia Aguilar and Antonia, were taken into custody on Sunday, according to a report from LA …READ THE FULL REPORT
Dead Body Found Near Looted LA Store as Riots Take ‘Dark Turn’Los Angeles police uncovered a dead body on city streets shortly after rioters left the scene, sending the pro-immigration demonstrations down a dark road.Local station KTLA reported that officers responded to the site of a riot around 1:30 a.m. PST on Tuesday after receiving reports of an unresponsive person.They located a man lying on his back in a red sweatshirt …READ THE FULL REPORT
Simone Biles Backtracks, Apologizes for Unhinged Attack Against Riley GainesPopular 11-time Olympic medalist gymnast Simone Biles released a lengthy statement on Tuesday in which she backtracked on her position about transgender athletes after a rather nasty feud with Riley Gaines on social media.In the post, published on X, Biles commented on how “the current system doesn’t adequately balance” principles such as “competitive equity” and “inclusivity” which often leads to …READ THE FULL REPORT
Oil took out the negative trend line during yesterday’s squeeze, but note we are hitting the 200 day moving average as of writing.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Zoom out…
…and you realize oil is a mean reverting asset over the past few years. Big levels to watch: $68 and $72.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Suddenly overbought
Oil RSI at the highest levels in a while. Sudden explosions in the RSI have tended to see oil reverse lower over the past year.
Source: LSEG Workspace
The dollar connection
Contrary to popular belief, oil has moved in tandem with the DXY. The latest gap between oil and the DXY is actually the “outlier”.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Not the economy
It is not the economy this time around. Oil vs CESI US gap rather wide here.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Hedging global risk?
Oil volatility, OVX, has moved sharply higher, but global risk remains rather muted. It is actually unusual for oil volatility to move like this, without VIX being part of the global hedge logic. There are better political risk hedges than chasing oil volatility.
Source: LSEG Workspace
The bond volatility connection
There is a strong connection between OVX and bond volatility, MOVE. The latest divergence is something we haven’t seen in a while.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Suckers
Another painful CTA trade gone “bust”. This is how convexity looked going into the squeeze.
Source: GS
Specs
Oil specs far from running juicy longs…
Source: JPM
Oil stock positioning
From a positioning standpoint, MS PB suggests oil levered equities (MSXXOIL) remain under owned.
Source: MS PB
END
Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 07:20 PM
Oil surged as much as 5% yesterday on reports that the US embassy in Iraq is preparing to be evacuated in response to heightened security risks in the region. At the same time, the State Department announced plans to order non-essential embassy personnel and their families to leave Bahrain and Kuwait, and the British Navy issued a rare warning to ships in the region, stating it “has been made aware of increased tensions within the region that could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners.” The advisory urged caution in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz.
To be sure, as reported here previously, tensions in the region have been rising as talks between the US and Iran over its nuclear program seem to have reached an impasse. This coincides with the expiration of the two-month deadline set by Trump for reaching a deal, with a sixth round of nuclear talks expected to take place in Oman on Sunday. The US administration remains hopeful about the possibility of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran and continues to oppose military action. Meanwhile, the Trump administration appears to be taking preparations for potential military action, possibly by Israel, against Iran.
The timeline for negotiations is further compressed by the upcoming vote by the IAEA Board of Governors on Iran’s non-compliance” with nuclear nonproliferation obligations, scheduled for June 12 in Vienna. This vote could activate the “snapback” mechanism embedded in the 2015 JCPOA agreement, reinstating all UN Security Council sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of the deal.
Long story short, all the elements are there for a sudden, and very “kinetic” escalation, in a worst-case scenario.
But how likely is that?
According to a note published this morning by JPMorgan’s chief commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva (available to pro subs here), the geopolitical risk premium is already at least partially reflected in current oil prices, which are trading at just under $70, some $4 above the bank’s model-derived fair value of $66 for June.
To JPM, this “suggests an elevated 7% probability of a worst-case scenario,where the price reaction is exponential rather than linear, with the impact on supply potentially extending beyond a 2.1 mbd reduction in Iranian oil exports.”
Meanwhile, attention is focused on the risk that a broadening of the conflict could close the Strait of Hormuz or that a more general Middle East conflagration could ignite retaliatory responses from major oil producing countries in the region responsible for a third of global oil output. Under this severe outcome, JPM estimates oil prices could surge to the $120-130 per barrel.
That’s the bad news. The good news, in keeping with the conventional wisdom mantra that everything bad is transitory except Trump’s tariff inflation (which has yet to manifest itself but will somehow be permanent), is that according to JPMorgan, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, the bank’s base case for oil remains in the low-to-mid $60s oil for the remainder of 2025, and $60 in 2026. Which is great, except that a mini world war in the Middle East would promptly turn said “base case” to ashes, similar to what much of the Middle East would turn into should Israel start targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Some more details from the JPM note:
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s busiest oil-shipping channel—would shut down the region’s oil trade, supercharging oil prices (Figure 1).
The skinny waterway—at its narrowest point it is only 21 miles (33 km) wide— separating the UAE, Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, and facilitates the movement of some 30% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world’s LNG supply (Table 1).
Today, all shipping traffic from energy-rich Gulf countries passes through the strait, including crude oil, oil products and liquefied natural gas exports from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Crucially, for all of recorded history, despite many threats, the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed off. Crude oil continued to flow.
Over the past 40 years, the Iranian leadership has made numerous threats to close the strait whenever Tehran felt that its economic sovereignty was challenged. For example, during the Tanker War phase of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Iran threatened closure of the strait following Iraq’s attacks on oil infrastructure at Iran’s Kharg Island. In the 1990s, disputes between Iran and the UAE over control of several small islands within the strait led to further threats to block the passageway. Late 2007 and into 2008 saw a series of naval stand-offs between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. In June 2008, Iran declared that if attacked by the US, it would seal off the strait, prompting the US to respond that any closure would be considered an act of war. In 2012, 2018, and 2019, Iran once again threatened to block the strait in response to US and EU sanctions against its nuclear program.
Crucially, even when sanctions were imposed, Iran refrained from closing the passageway, likely indicating a preference to avoid escalating the conflict from hybrid warfare into full-blown war. First and foremost, Iran would almost certainly incur significant costs following any attempt to close the strait. Unless Iran could persuade the Gulf Cooperation Council that such an action was essential for self-defense, closure would be perceived not only as a grave violation of international norms but, more critically, as a direct threat to the economic interests of most Gulf states.
Saudi Arabia exports most of its oil through the Strait, though it can divert some flows via a pipeline
85% of Iraqi oil travels through the strait, making it highly reliant on free passage
Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have no option but to ship their oil through the waterway
Any disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would also antagonize the Gulf’s primary customers. The majority of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) oil traffic is destined for Asian markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with large volumes of LNG following the same route. Additionally, Iran’s economy heavily relies on the free passage of goods and vessels through the seaway, as its oil exports are entirely sea-based. Finally, cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran’s relationship with its sole oil customer, China.
Iran could retaliate in other ways, such as disrupting shipping in the Persian Gulf. However, even during the “Tanker War” of the 1980s, when 259 oil tankers were attacked between 1984 and 1987, Gulf oil exports were not curtailed, nor did it substantially increase world oil prices. This resilience partly reflects the Gulf Arab states’ increased reliance on overland pipelines.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1533 UP 0.0023 PTS OR 23 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 143.86 DOWN 0.325 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3543 DOWN .0024 OR .24 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3666 UP 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 0.34 PTS OR 0.01%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 331.56 PTS OR 1.36%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .27%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 331.56 PTS OR 1.36%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.34 PTS OR 0.01%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.27 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 209.68 PTS OR 0.55%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3356.35
silver:$35.80
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.29 DOWN .32 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
Stocks Close At Session Highs But Retail Euphoria Boils Over As Short-Squeeze Frenzy Ends
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 08:16 PM
Heading into today’s cash session, there were three big question: 1) will PPI come in light, 2) will today’s 30Y auction find enough demand, and 3) will the rumored escalation between Iran and Israel manifest in a military strike.
In retrospect, it was all good news, with PPI following in CPI’s footsteps and printing well below estimates, while core PPI printed at the lowest annual increase since last August…
… the 30Y auction was stellar, stronger than both the 3Y and 10Y coupon sales earlier this week, and stopped through by a whopping 1.5 bps…
… which helped push the 10Y yield to session lows and below where it was ahead of last Friday’s NFP-driven surge.
Tied to this, Goldman’s econ team highlighted expectations for smaller tariff effects on the economy and called for a roughly 1/4pp smaller peak hit to GDP growth to tariffs than we did previously, all of which was bullish for sentiment as well.
Meanwhile all the speculation about an imminent Israel strike on Iran proved to be nothing more than hype, yet perhaps due to Trump’s clumsy attempt to talk down the escalation with this rather bizarre U-turn in his comments today…
*TRUMP: FAIRLY CLOSE TO AGREEMENT WITH IRAN
… followed, paradoxically, by …
*TRUMP: SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN SOON IN MIDDLE EAST
… attempts to press oil lower failed, with WTI closing just shy of the highs hit in the overnight session when speculation about an Israel strike first began, and should WTI rise another $2 it will be back to where it was at the start of the year, undoing much of the deflationary efforts by Trump and his pals at OPEC+…
… which probably explains Trump’s angry (and humorous… kinda) outburst earlier today when addressing his chief energy advisor, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, saying “he was going to really start screaming at you” because Trump doesn’t like the surge in the oil price.
US President Donald Trump speaking at the White House today and referring directly to US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright (in the audience):
So in retrospect, most of today’s market hurdles were overcome with little effort, which is why the S&P reversed all its earlier losses and was trading at session highs…
… up for the 4th day in a row, and 7 in the past 9, in what was otherwise a muted session.
The composition of today’s gains was broad, led by Oracle, Microsoft and NVDA, with a few notable exceptions including TSLA and GOOGL, whose cloud was hit by a major outage in the early afternoon.
In bad news for retail traders, the OG meme stonk, Gamestop, is down by a third in 2 days, first on catastrophic earnings (where the CEO said the company’s future is now in… trading cards?) and second after the company announced it would sell $1.75 billion in convertible bonds this morning, sparking a dilution orgy.
There was some more bad news for retail: the staggering short squeeze that started on the last day of May is finally fizzling, and after rising on 6 of the previous 7 days, was in danger of declining for 2 consecutive days…
… which naturally is bad news for momentum chasers who will now punt on this latest trend-following trade.
Yet despite the hits to some retail favorites, volumes today were tracking higher today on increased retail involvement: as Goldman points out, pennystock volumes were exploding this morning: 2 names HCTI and GNLN combined for over 6.6 billion shares.
However, the reversal in the short squeeze has not been enough to help Long/Short hedge funds: here, as the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP less Most Shorted basket shows, there has been a 10% drop in the past two weeks on the back of the furious short squeeze coupled by the underperformance in hedge fund favorites such as Mag 7 stocks.
Still, it was ORCL management that saved the day with very bullish commentary on AI demand; The result was that AI Leaders (GSTMTAIL) +291bps, AI Software (GSTMTAIS) +185 bps, while ORCL itself was +14% poised for its third largest rally since dot com days; not surprisingly Goldman’s trading desk is notably seeing real follow through demand.
Commenting on today’s price action, Goldman’s trading desk writes that it has been “choppy px action with equities rallying into the afternoon as quality /momentum unwind reverting a bit: Mega vs Nonprof Tech basket (GSPUMENP) +75bps… reminder Big Tech has lagged our Non-Profitable Tech basket for 7 straight days, longest ‘losing’ streak in several years“
Some more comments from Goldman:
Our desk is a 5 out of 10 in terms of activity levels. We’re 2% better to buy with the largest buy skews in TMT and HC.
LOs are 8% better to buy heavily skewed in TMT
HFs are evenly mixed buying TMT and HC vs selling Discretionary and Industrials.
This begs the question: is the “junk rally” that Goldman said to start selling, finally over?
And speaking of the latest retail darling, look no further than nuclear where the price action is hard to ignore: the underlying index of NLR is tracking for its 10th consecutive week higher (+50% over the stretch). When this reverses, it will be brutal.
Elsewhere, both bitcoin and ethereum traded to session lows, without any news although it has become clear that any time there is even a whiff of momentum reversal, it is crypto (and especially ETH) that gets whacked.
As for precious metals, gold has now recovered its latest drawdown to trade near record highs, which silver also managed to recover from a modest drop that briefly pulled it below $36, only to ramp right back up and trade not too far from its highest price since 2011.
“Here Come The Layoffs”; Jobless Claims Rise To 8 Month High As Continuing Claims Unexpectedly Soar
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 09:25 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time jumped to 247k last week (above the 239k expected) – the highest since October 2024…
A breakdown of weekly claims changes finds widespread increase in weekly claims filings, with the biggest increases in California, Minnesota and Pennsylvania,, and the biggest drops in Kentucky and North Dakota.
Commenting on the result, Southbay Research writes, “here come the layoffs” and notes that “if you expected white collar layoffs in IT, Healthcare/Pharma, and DEI, these States would probably show it”, to wit:
Continuing claims not only remained above the 1.9 million Americans level for the third week in a row, but unexpectedly spiked to the highest level since November 2021, at 1.956 million, well above the 1.190 million expected…
…with the DOGE-inspired ‘Deep Tristate’ region seeing claims surge to their highest since Dec 2021
So despite Musk’s obvious disappointment at the One Big Beautiful Bill’s lack of spending cuts, he can be proud that he did his part to shrink the workforce of the leviathan…
end
Core Producer Price Growth Slides To Lowest Since August As Companies Eat Tariff Costs
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 09:00 AM
Following another month of cooler than expected CPI, US Producer Prices followed and printed well below expectations in May (if not quite the plunge observed last month), rising only 0.1%, below the +0.2% MoM exp (but we note that just like March’s 0.4% MoM decline was revised up to unchanged, so May’s -0.5% drop has been also revised higher to -0.2%). Meanwhile, the headline print posted a modest increase, rising from an upward revised 2.5% in April (from 2.4%) to 2.6% in May.
But while headline PPI posted a modest annual increase, core PPI continued to slide, rising just 3.0% in May, the lowest since August 2024 (below the 3.1% estimate), down from an upward revised 3.2% in May, as a result of a 0.1% monthly increase in core PPI, which also missed expectations of a 0.3% increase.
Looking at the PPI components that matter for PCE calculation, airline passenger services contracted another 1.1% m/m in May, after a 1.8% decline in April. Portfolio management contracted 1% after a 7.1% decline in April. Home health and hospice care flat, and hospital outpatient care contracted 0.3% m/m in April.
Under the hood, prices for final demand services rebounded 0.1% in May, reversing the 0.7% plunge in April which was the largest (pre-revision) decline since the index began in December 2009, driven by portfolio management services.
Taking a closer look at the components:
The index for final demand services inched up 0.1% in May following a 0.4% decrease in April. The advance was attributable to a 0.4% rise in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.2 percent, while the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing was unchanged.
Product detail: Leading the increase in prices for final demand services in May, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling jumped 2.9 percent. The indexes for traveler accommodation services; apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; alcohol retailing; and system software publishing also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services fell 1.1 percent. The indexes for furniture retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; and portfolio management also decreased.
Prices for final demand goods rose 0.2% in May after edging up 0.1% in April. Over 80% of the May advance can be traced to the index for final demand goods less foods and energy, which climbed 0.2%. Prices for final demand foods increased 0.1%, while the index for final demand energy was unchanged.
Product detail: Within the index for final demand goods in May, prices for tobacco products rose 0.9 percent. The indexes for gasoline, processed poultry, roasted coffee, residential natural gas, and oilseeds also increased. In contrast, prices for jet fuel declined 8.2 percent. The indexes for pork and for carbon steel scrap also fell.
Margin pressure remains on American corporations, which confirms that companies are eating tariff costs.
In other words, despite all the FUD, companies are soaking up any tariff price increases and NOT passing them on to customers.
END
PPI ANALYZED
PPI Shows Companies Eating Tariff Costs, Bloomberg Finds
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 12:20 PM
Earlier today, when analyzing the latest PPI data, we concluded that – at least so far – it is companies that are eating tariffs costs, not passing them on to consumers. In a subsequent report, Bloomberg agrees.
Echoing what we said, Bloomberg writes that the details from the PPI report were less benign than the headline number suggests, as “core goods were the main source of price pressures in May, suggesting that companies may be eating some of the added costs from tariffs.”
The increase is particularly visible in finished goods, and specifically durable consumer goods. This category just posted its largest increase since 2023.
But while that is bad news for companies, it is good news for consumers. As Bloomberg further explains, the fact that core goods continue to be a source of disinflation in consumer prices but a source of persistent inflation in producer prices hints at pressure on corporate margins. That can also be gleaned simply from the fact that PPI is running higher than CPI, just as we highlighted earlier.
It certainly should explain “why stocks aren’t over the moon with this report”, even if it is good news for consumers as it means that, so far, it is corporations (with the benefits of Chinese suppliers) who are footing the cost of Trump’s trade war.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
LOS ANGELES:
MARYLAND
“Another Reason To Leave”: Top Maryland Power Official Warns Of Regular Rolling Blackouts
Condoms for Kindergarteners — this is the priority of @mddems. Rather than supplying the grid with more power and lowering electric bills, or giving children stuck in failed schools a better option, Annapolis Democrats want to put condoms in kindergarten classrooms. Sad. pic.twitter.com/rpBog5jkgd
Their chronic mismanagement, with far-left Governor Wes Moore at the helm, has steered Maryland straight into a power crisis, like the Titanic blindly drifting through an iceberg minefield. The state’s fragile grid is now teetering on the edge of crisis, paving the way for ‘net-zero‘ blackouts that could soon rival those seen in Spain or California.
It’s time to ditch the Green New Scam. "There's an acute misalignment between supply and demand for electricity in Maryland," said BGE spokesperson Nick Alexopulos. "In short, we don't have enough power plants to meet the energy demand." pic.twitter.com/surcWmHcK7
A top official at Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), a local utility with 1.3 million electric customers and 700,000 natural gas customers, warned that rolling power blackouts could soon become a regular feature in the state due to a rapidly alarming mismatch between total power capacity on the grid and soaring demand.
Regular rolling blackouts could become reality for Baltimore-area residents if a lack of energy supplied to the power grid remains unaddressed, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company Vice President Electric Operations Steven Singh warned.
BGE has worked during the last two decades to lessen the number of short-term loads shed events, Singh said, but rolling blackouts — during which power is disconnected from some segments of the community when the grid remains viable — could be implemented if power demand continues to exceed supply.
“It’s a huge concern,” Singh said. “It’s a clear and present issue.”
At a recent round table at the University of Maryland … We have a supply and demand issue.”
Singh also shared larger concerns with energy shortages that may result as the energy transition away from coal-fired power plants continues, and electric vehicle ownership grows. He said one factor that impacts the region is an increase in data centers — reliant on huge, power-hungry server infrastructure.
At the heart of the crisis is the Democratic leadership in the state, consisting of activists who masquerade as efficient managers. Yet they’re far from efficient while wearing climate crisis blinders and pushing through disastrous “green” policies—shuttering coal-fired power plants without bringing sufficient new capacity online. All this comes amid surging power demand driven by AI data centers (read here), EV adoption, and re-shoring of industrial operations in the region.
And because of this epic mismanagement by far-left lawmakers, Marylanders are suffering from the worst power bill crisis in a generation, with 25% of Maryland households unable to pay an energy bill in the past 12 months.
But let’s not wrap this up just yet…
To capture the growing discontent among Maryland residents, we’re turning to the comment section of The Baltimore Sun’s Facebook post featuring the article.
Here’s what people had to say…
For those living in Maryland. Welcome to California. Just wait for the exodus of residents, it’s already beginning. We’ve informed readers multiple times that a large asset manager in the state has instructed its clients not to buy Maryland muni bonds and to leave the state.
Federal authorities in Southern California filed a complaint charging three foreign nationals with conspiring to distribute nearly four tons of methamphetamine, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said in a June 5 statement.
Erick Arriola, 27, from El Salvador, and Mexican nationals Baltazar Rodriguez Reyes, 49, and Eugenio Lizama, 35, were charged with possession with intent to distribute methamphetamine and conspiracy to distribute methamphetamine. They face a minimum of 10 years in prison.
According to federal prosecutors, Arriola is a felon convicted of DUI, battery of a spouse, and false imprisonment.
In the complaint, federal authorities allege that on June 2 at about 7 p.m., the men were moving bundles from a large semi-truck into two white panel vans and a white Ford F150 truck as they were parked in a parking lot on Otay Mesa Road in San Diego County, approximately three miles north of the Otay Mesa Port of Entry on the U.S.–Mexico border.
Once the loading was complete, the three defendants allegedly drove in separate directions before Border Patrol agents apprehended them. Two of the vehicles drove to a motel in San Ysidro. The third drove to a motel in Chula Vista, according to the San Diego County Sheriff’s Office.
Authorities seized a total of 61 bundles of suspected methamphetamine weighing more than 7,700 pounds and valued at about $5.5 million.
Attorneys for Arriola, Reyes, and Lizama could not be reached.
The seizure is the largest so far by the new Homeland Security Task Force San Diego, which was established by President Donald Trump’s executive order signed on his first day in office.
The executive order, “Protecting The American People Against Invasion,” requires the Department of Homeland Security and the Justice Department to establish Homeland Security Task Forces in every state to eliminate cartels, foreign gangs, transnational criminal organizations, and drug and human trafficking.
The Homeland Security Task Force San Diego identifies and targets transnational criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking, money laundering, weapons trafficking, human trafficking and smuggling, homicide, extortion, and kidnapping.
“As a founding member of HSTF in San Diego, I’m thrilled to be working alongside our partners who have also committed resources to combatting transnational crime,” Shawn Gibson, special agent in charge for the task force, said in a statement. “Cases under the HSTF will be a priority for me and staff as we all will continue to work together to secure our border and keep our communities safe.”
The case was investigated as part of Operation Take Back America, a federal initiative by the Justice Department that will, in part, support Homeland Security Task Forces.
“The recent formation of Homeland Security Task Force San Diego is an essential step to fulfilling the promises of Operation Take Back America,” U.S. Attorney Adam Gordon said in a statement. “Our Office will fully support these enhanced law enforcement partnerships to ensure the safety of our community.”
This case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorney Kyle Martin from the U.S. attorney’s recently created Narcoterrorism Unit.
end
TEXAS
Abbott Deploys National Guard To San Antonio Ahead Of Wednesday Night ICE Protest
Wednesday, Jun 11, 2025 – 03:20 PM
Setting himself in stark contrast to California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has ordered a contingent of National Guard soldiers to San Antonio ahead of protests against the apprehensions of illegal aliens planned for Wednesday night and Saturday.
“Peaceful protests are part of the fabric of our nation, but Texas will not tolerate the lawlessness we have seen in Los Angeles,” Abbott’s press secretary said in a Tuesday night statement. “Anyone engaging in acts of violence or damaging property will be swiftly held accountable to the full extent of the law.”
News of the deployment of National Guard soldiers comes after lawless conduct by demonstrators in Austin on Monday night. Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) officers aided local police in managing a response that kept the theft and destruction to a minimum. “During Monday evening’s response, DPS personnel deployed tear gas and pepper ball projectiles to ensure officer safety and maintain order,” said DPS in a statement. Five arrests were made, with charges including felony criminal mischief and resisting arrest. Here’s video of the tear-gas deployment:
🚨UNLAWFUL ASSEMBLY: Police declare the protest in Austin Texas an unlawful assembly‼️
Watch as police launch tear gas at Antifa / Anti ICE / Trans / LGBT protesters 🇺🇸
The Wednesday protest at City Hall in San Antonio promises to be just a warm-up for Saturday, when leftists are planning “No Kings Day Nationwide Day of Defiance” protests in cities all across the country — coinciding with a military parade in Washington to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army (which also happens to be Trump’s 79th birthday). Saturday’s uprising is receiving organizational backing — or, at the very least, logistical support — from a web of nearly 200 groups, including a wide range of NGOs.
As Abbott deploys soldiers as a preventative measure, Newsom has filed for an emergency restraining order blocking Trump from dispatching troops to patrol Los Angeles, following four days of burning and looting and attacks on police. Abbott has aggressively deployed the National Guard before — to fend off invasions of Texas by illegal immigrants. In defiance of then-President Biden, he deployed troops to the Rio Grande border city of Eagle Pass, where the pace of illegal crossings reached a jaw-dropping 4,000 in a single day. Abbott even built a new, permanent military base in the vicinity — Forward Operating Base Eagle — to support his long-running, border-focused Operation Lone Star, which is a joint undertaking of the National Guard and DPS.
“The State of Texas stands ready to deploy all necessary personnel and resources to uphold law and order across our state,” said Abbott’s press secretary on Tuesday. “Texas National Guard soldiers are on standby in areas where mass demonstrations are planned in case they are needed.” Note that, while it’s certainly a “blue city,” San Antonio has a different culture than ultra-leftist Austin. Criminality like what was seen in Austin on Monday night is certain to provoke a public backlash and widespread endorsement of whatever counter-action Abbott’s soldiers and Texas DPS use to bring the hammer down:
Rioters in Austin, Texas steal chairs, tables, and signs from businesses, and dump them in the streets (most likely to help deter police) along with rental scooters, cones, street signs, barricades….
Pilot errors: didn’t use the whole runway..did not have enough thrust!!
(zerohedge)
Boeing Shares Tumble After Air India 787-8 Dreamliner Crash
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 06:47 AM
Watch Live On-The-Ground via CNBC India
* * *
Update (0647ET):
Boeing shares are down 7.5% in premarket trading in New York after an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner en route from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick crashed shortly after takeoff — marking what appears to be the first fatal accident and hull loss involving any Boeing 787 variant since the aircraft’s debut in 2009.
“With profound sorrow I confirm that Air India Flight 171 operating Ahmedabad London Gatwick was involved in a tragic accident today. Our thoughts and deepest condolences are with the families and loved ones of all those affected by this devastating event,” Air India Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran wrote on X.
“At this moment, our primary focus is on supporting all the affected people and their families. We are doing everything in our power to assist the emergency response teams at the site and to provide all necessary support and care to those impacted,” Chandrasekaran added.
London’s Gatwick Airport wrote on X, “We can confirm that flight AI171 that crashed on departure from Ahmedabad Airport today was due to land at London Gatwick at 18:25.
Notice the pilot only used half of the runway for takeoff?
There are questions.
I won’t speculate but using half the runway with a full 787 is absolutely ridiculous. I have no info about the TO performance and the runway length but I have questions.
Length of Runway available – 5700 ft B787 Takeoff distance ~ 9000 ft
Typical Piloting error. Could have been avoided. The Aircraft took off as soon as it reached its VR Speed but the engine couldn’t generate enough thrust and hence… pic.twitter.com/KxTHw8EsQh— VS (@sheriviator) June 12, 2025
The flight was carrying 232 passengers and 12 crew members when it went down over a densely populated area in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad. Initial reports from the ground suggest a mass casualty incident, though details remain limited
end
POWELL VS TRUMP
Trump demands rate cuts. I will put my money on Trump
Trump Says He Won’t Fire “Numbskull” Powell, But Demands Rate Cuts
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 12:17 PM
President Trump said he did not plan to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, days after saying he would “soon” pick his nominee – to lead the central bank next, with Polymarket odds suggesting Hassett, Warsh and Bessent are favorites to replace Powell.
“The fake news is saying, ‘Oh, if you fired him, it would be so bad, it would be so bad.’ I don’t know why it would be so bad, but I’m not going to fire him,” Trump said at a White House event on Thursday.
Trump went on to reiterate his complaints that the Fed has not moved quickly enough to cut interest rates, as more evidence emerged of cooling inflation. Powell’s term as chair expires in May 2026.
Trump went on to complain that “we’re going to spend $600 billion a year because of one numbskull that sits here, ‘I don’t see enough reason to cut the rates now.’… Cut your rates now, there’s no inflation.”
🇺🇸Trump calls Powell a "numskull" for not cutting rates, won't fire him. Drama ensues, markets yawn, America shrugs. pic.twitter.com/q4WeBIzyCc
“We call him ‘Too Late,’ right?” Trump said, adding he was frustrated that the current rates were increasing the federal government’s borrowing costs. The president said the Fed could always increase rates if inflation returned.
“Let’s say there was inflation. In a year from now, raise your rates. I don’t mind, raise your rates. I’m all for it. I’ll be the one to be calling you,” Trump said. “He’ll be too late for that too.”
US Core CPI has been less than consensus for the 4th straight month. But the tariffs! Yes, Virginia, Fed officials/academics have a history of bad forecasting, particularly the political hacks and ideologues.
@realDonaldTrump: CPI JUST OUT. GREAT NUMBERS! FED SHOULD LOWER ONE FULL POINT. WOULD PAY MUCH LESS INTEREST ON DEBT COMING DUE. SO IMPORTANT!!!
GOP Sen. @BasedMikeLee: The Federal Reserve Bank is supposed to be apolitical. But it’s notorious for cutting rates to help Democratic presidents. The Fed’s not really apolitical. It’s just detached from the electoral process—which makes it unaccountable, but not apolitical. That’s a bad combination
@realDonaldTrump: OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS(30% from Geneva and 25% existing tariffs), CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! Adding to the China readout, President XI and I are going to work closely together to open up China to American Trade. This would be a great WIN for both countries!!!
Trump’s tariffs can remain in place for now, but appeals court fast tracks a summer resolution The decision came after the Trump administration appealed the Court of International Trade’s ruling finding the president exceeded his authority to impose country-wide tariffs claiming a national emergency… https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/10/business/tariffs-appeals-court-stay-trump
@SecScottBessent: According to the National Federation of Independent Business, small business optimism rose to 98.8 in May, exceeding its long-term average of 98. Growing confidence in @POTUS’ One Big Beautiful Bill and its tax breaks is driving this optimism. Nearly 25% of firms plan capital investments in the next six months. Momentum is building.
The yin/yang of a great May CPI report and disappointing US-China trade talk results frustrated traders.
ESMs opened soft on Tuesday night and then dropped to 6032.25 at 19:10 ET. They quickly spiked to 6052.26 at 19:17 ET. Just as quickly they reversed. ESMs intractably fell to a daily low of 6021.50 at the 1:00 ET Nikkei close. Disappointment in the results of US-China trade talks was the major factor.
ESMs then slowly rallied to 6042.50 at 4:37 ET. After a decline to 6024.50 at 7:21 ET, ESMs turned higher. They eventually went vertical, hitting a daily high of 6074.75 at 8:38 ET. Volatility appeared; ESMs sank to 6035.75 at 8:45 ET on the dump. The usual NYSE opening buying then pushed ESMs to 6064.75 at 10:55 ET. ESMs then headed south.
The ESM/stock decline accelerated on the above WSJ story as traders and investors realized the US-China trade talk results were even worse than their initial disappointing view.
After hitting an NYSE session low of 6033.50 at 12:19 ET, ESMs rallied to 6058.50 at 13:31 ET. Sellers reappeared; ESMs tumbled to a new daily low of 6017.50 at 14:04 ET. After a 16-handle rebound in only three minutes, ESMs sank to another new low (6006.25 at 14:17 ET) on reports that the US ordered the departure of all non-essential personnel from the US Embassy in Baghdad, as well as non-essential personnel and family members also located in Bahrain and Kuwait.
It looks it might be go time for Iran! Oil and gasoline soared.
After a rebound to 6035.50 at 14:49 ET, ESMs fell to 6011.00 at 15:35 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESMs to 6030.50 at 15:59 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Fangs and the DJIA rallied moderately in early NYSE trading. USMs rallied 24/32 on the May CPI Report and a good 10-year auction (4.421% vs 4.428% WI)
Negative aspects of previous session The US-China trade talks produced a nothing burger. The DJTA declined sharply after two days of robust rallies. The dollar suffered a sharp drop. Oil and gasoline soared on a possible Israel or US strike on Iran.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How will markets perceive the US-China trade talk results?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6028.01 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6059.40; 6002.32
@realDonaldTrump: If our troops didn’t go into Los Angeles, it would be burning to the ground right now, just like so much of their housing burned to the ground. The great people of Los Angeles are very lucky that I made the decision to go in and help!!!
GOP @SenTomCotton: The threat from the radical left is clear: Don’t enforce immigration laws. If you do, left-wing street militias will burn down cities, and Democratic politicians will back the rioters. The president is absolutely right to reject this threat. https://t.co/n6ISLyLySi
Tom Cotton: Send In the Troops, for Real When local police can’t restore order, the federal government has a duty to do so with a show of force. https://t.co/n6ISLyLySi
Walmart heiress Christy Walton’s anti-Trump ad fuels MAGA-led call for boycott of retailerhttps://trib.al/53B6zcj
Today – The US-China trade negotiations produced an ambiguous result that favors China on the rare minerals issue. This is a negative for the stock market. Plus, stocks are grossly overbought technically.
After reports of Netanyahu’s contentious phone call with DJT over Iran a few days ago and Iran having or about to produce nuclear weapons, the evacuation of some US embassies in the Middle East induced fear that Israel will soon go kinetic on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Axios says the IDF is on extremely high alert.
The U.S. is on high alert in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran – WaPo
The S&P 500 Index low for Tuesday is 6000.26; yesterday’s low is 6002.32. A significant breach of 6000 should generate spirited selling. Out sight of the usual retail buying, there is little on the horizon that would boost stocks.
ESMs are -14.25; NQMs are -59.25; USMs are -1/32; and Gold is +42.00 at 20:10 ET.
Expected Economic Data: May PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.6% y/y, Core PI 0.3% m/m & 3.1% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 242k, Continuing Claims 1.91m; Auction: $22B of ‘reopened’30-yr bonds (29 year-11 month)
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5654; 100-day MA: 5774; 150-day MA: 5836; 200-day MA: 5803 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,148; 100-day MA: 42,257; 150-day MA: 42,672; 200-day MA: 42,489 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6038.81 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5807.26 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5987.57 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD isnegative– a close below 5904.00 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6012.83 triggers a sell signal
@CollinRugg on Tuesday night: LA mayor Karen Bass tells Los Angeles residents to stay away from downtown, says 23 businesses have been looted & there is “graffiti everywhere.” Bass has implemented a curfew in DTLA tonight from 8pm to 6am. “Many businesses have now been affected by or vandalized. Last night there were 23 businesses that were looted.” “The graffiti is everywhere and has caused significant damages to businesses and a number of properties.” https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1932605253243011217
@C_3C_3: Roughly every 760,000 illegals deported the Democrats lose a House seat after the next census.That’s why they’re burning down cities.
@seanspicer: LA Mayor Karen Bass said she will arrest people who break her curfew but she’s against ICE arresting people in the country illegally
On Tuesday night, CA Governor Gavin Newsom staged a national address. It was a disaster. For the first two minutes, there was no sound. The dandy and perfectly coiffed governor/POTUS candidate had to restart his speech. He, of course, blamed Trump for the LA riots.
@BillMelugin_G: DHS confirms to @FoxNews that ICE arrested a previously deported illegal alien from Mexico who they say was caught on video throwing a Molotov cocktail at law enforcement during the riots in Los Angeles on Saturday. Emiliano Garduno-Galvez will be charged w/ attempted murder. He has prior arrests in Long Beach for DUI and grand theft in Anaheim… (This is who Dems fight for!) https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1932785782617747964
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Who is funding the LA riots? This violence isn’t spontaneous. As chairman of the Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime & Terrorism, I’m launching an investigation to find out – https://x.com/HawleyMO/status/1932793859416735949
VP @JDVance: Gavin Newsom says he didn’t have a problem until Trump got involved… Newsom and his stooge Karen Bass fomented and encouraged the riots, because their entire political movement exists for one purpose: to promote mass migration into our country. It is their reason for being. Democratic leadership has no solution for the economy, for prosperity, or for security. They use their power when they’re in the majority to import millions of illegal immigrants and when they’re in opposition they do everything possible to prevent deportations. Under Newsom’s leadership, medicaid was extended to all illegal immigrants in 2024… If you want to know why illegal aliens flocked to your state, stop accusing Donald Trump. Look in the mirror. If you want to know why border patrol fear for their lives over enforcing the law, look in the mirror. It was your policies that encouraged mass migration into California. Your policies that protected those migrants from common sense law enforcement. Your policies that offered massive welfare benefits to reward illegal immigrants. Your policies that allowed those illegal migrants (and their sympathizers) to assault our law enforcement. Your policies that allowed Los Angeles to turn into a war zone…
@Bubblebathgirl: Woman who drove her motorcycle into police in LA shamelessly smiles as she recounts what happened. She says she’s being charged with a felony and that she committed the crime because her people are being deported.Deport them even faster, in greater numbers, and lock her up. https://x.com/Bubblebathgirl/status/1932774522262098295
@amuse: FUN FACT: California was owned by Spain for 252 years. Mexico owned it for less than 20 years quickly agreeing to turn it over the to US 177 years ago. So, using the left’s logic, Mexico has the weakest claim to the state.
@AnnCoulter: Stop acting like Obama was the “deporter in chief.” He changed the definition to get his numbers up, while actually deporting very few. I know it’s fun to accuse Dems of hypocrisy, but in my book “intentionally wrecking our country” is worse.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Democrats Ambush Hegseth Over Trump’s LA Troop Deployment… Instantly Regret It
What started as a routine budget hearing in D.C. turned tense the moment Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrived. He had just authorized troop deployments to riot-hit Los Angeles, and Democrats were ready to pounce.
The hearing was billed as a routine discussion on defense appropriations.
But the moment Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sat down, it became clear Democrats were preparing for an ambush.
Rep. Betty McCollum opened fire, skipping over the budget’s big picture and going straight for Hegseth’s decision to deploy troops to Los Angeles in response to widespread violent riots.
“Where in your limited budget, Sir, in the remainder of this fiscal year, are you going to pull the money to cover these deployments?”
She expected financial figures.
But Hegseth didn’t respond with spreadsheets. He responded with battle scars.
“Well, Congresswoman, thank you for the question. You are right. We are both originally from Minnesota, which is why I recall 2020 quite well,” he said.
Then came the indictment of her failed colleague and governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz.
Hegseth unloaded with both barrels:
“When Governor Walz abandoned a police precinct and allowed it to be burned to the ground, and also allowed five days of chaos to occur inside the streets of Minneapolis.”
“The police precinct, ma’am, was abandoned and burned to the ground. And because of that, the National Guard was eventually far too late, mobilized.”
His attack cut deep—especially for a Democrat from Minnesota—because Hegseth wasn’t offering theory.
He was pointing to a case study in cowardice.
A police station handed over to rioters. The streets of Minneapolis turned over to mob rule. And no accountability.
Now, with chaos flaring in Los Angeles, Hegseth made it clear: this administration wasn’t going to repeat that failure.
“President Trump recognizes a situation like that, improperly handled by a governor like it was by Governor Walz, if it gets out of control, is a bad situation for the citizens of any location.”
And this time, federal leadership wasn’t going to sit back and watch it burn.
“So in Los Angeles, we believe that ICE, which is a federal law enforcement agency, has the right to safely conduct operations in any state and any jurisdiction in the country, especially after 21 million illegals have crossed our border under the previous administration.”
After hearing Hegseth’s defense of the LA deployment, she returned to the mic—this time visibly agitated—and with 17,000 officers on the ground, she argued, the city didn’t need federal backup.
But Hegseth didn’t budge. He tore down the woke polices that have led to this discrepancy in police officers.
“There are 17,000 LAPD, you mentioned that. There would be 18,000 if not for the defund movement, that folks like Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass have implemented.”
“The police chief said she was overwhelmed, so we helped.”
That statement triggered Rep. McCollum and what followed was a total hissy fit, because she did not like hearing the facts.
“Mr. Chairman—I will yield back my time if the Secretary refuses to answer the budgetary questions I put before him!”
McCollum snapped: “They’re important.”
“What training missions aren’t happening? Where are you pulling the money from? And how are you planning this moving forward?”
But Hegseth didn’t backpedal. He stood firm—and issued a direct response.
“Well, thankfully, unlike the previous administration, we’ve got a 13% increase in our defense budget and we will have the capability to cover down on contingencies, which is something the National Guard and the Marine plan for.”
“So we have the funding to cover down on contingencies, especially ones as important as maintaining law and order in major American city.”
The room went quiet. McCollum got her answer—just not the one she wanted.
Rep. McCollum wasn’t done.
After hearing Hegseth’s defense of the LA deployment, she returned to the mic—this time visibly agitated—and with 17,000 officers on the ground, she argued, the city didn’t need federal backup.
Just when it seemed the hearing might return to order, Rep. Rosa DeLauro took the floor—and unleashed the most unhinged moment of the day.
Her topic concern was related to shipbuilding.
But the exchange had nothing to do with steel or strategy.
“Ma’am, I fully acknowledge the investment this committee has made in shipbuilding and the challenge is our department under the previous administration squandered a lot of that—” Hegseth began.
He never got to finish. She began screaming.
“Please! I want—I WANT YOUR PLAN!!!” DeLauro screamed.
“I—I’ve—I’ve had difficulties with the prior administration and I don’t mind calling him out, what is your plan for the future?!!”
“Can we get that in writing and on paper, so that we know where you’re going? Because we don’t have anything today.”
“We have ZIP, NADA!”
“Unless this committee sees dollars and cents, and where you’re going and what your plan is, then we may reconsider what you need to do to go forward.”
“Give us the details!”
Hegseth, unshaken, offered a calm and deliberate reply.
“Congresswoman, we have the details and we will provide them for you.”
It was a telling contrast—DeLauro losing control, Hegseth holding the line.
Just when it seemed the hearing might return to order, Rep. Rosa DeLauro took the floor—and unleashed the most unhinged moment of the day.
Her topic concern was related to shipbuilding.
But the exchange had nothing to do with steel or strategy.
Aguilar wasn’t finished. He shifted from accusations to legality.
Under what authority, he asked, had the military been sent into a domestic city to support law enforcement?
“Why are you sending war fighters to interact with civilians?”
Hegseth answered without blinking.
“Every American citizen deserves to live in a community that’s safe,”
“And ICE agents need to be able to do their job. When they’re attacked for doing it—that’s lawless.”
This is the only way forward.
Aguilar fired back, citing federal law.
[Suddenly, Democrats love the law when it suits their needs, but not when it helps them garner new illegal alien voters.]
Deploying troops under U.S. Code §12406, he said, requires very specific conditions: foreign invasion, rebellion, or a state government’s failure to uphold the law.
“Which one are you claiming here?”
“All three,” Hegseth said.
“Millions of illegals… foreign flags in the streets… assaults on law enforcement. And a governor who refuses to act.”
Then he dropped a savage indictment of Governor Newsom himself.
“The governor of California has failed to protect his people. The mayor of Los Angeles won’t enforce the law. So President Trump will.”
Aguilar tried one last angle: federal deployment orders must run through governors.
But Hegseth had the last word.
“You and I both know that President Trump has all the authorities necessary,” he said.
“And thankfully, he’s willing to use them.”
Hegseth silenced Aguilar with a clear message: the era of lawlessness is over. That was Biden’s tenure, not Trump’s.
When the state’s leaders won’t lead, someone else will.
Aguilar wasn’t finished.
He shifted from accusations to legality.
Under what authority, he asked, had the military been sent into a domestic city to support law enforcement?
“Why are you sending war fighters to interact with civilians?”
This story was made possible with the help of Overton —I couldn’t have done it without him.
END
Picnic Or Not, Rand Paul Reveals The One Thing That Will Secure His Vote For Trump Tax Bill
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 10:20 AM
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) continues to be a prominent holdout against President Donald Trump’s ambitious “Big, Beautiful Bill,” drawing frustration from the White House. However, the Kentucky Republican – who was reportedly disinvited and then reinvited to the annual White House picnic – has indicated he could ultimately support the legislation if a key condition is met: removing the debt ceiling increase from the bill.
In a Tuesday interview with Charlie Kirk, Paul voiced concerns over the federal government’s reliance on omnibus spending bills or continuing resolutions, calling them a “terrible way to run government.” Paul also criticized GOP leadership in both the House and Senate for failing to deliver on promises of fiscal responsibility, accusing them of prioritizing political expediency over conservative principles that they claim to uphold.
“It’s going to be an omnibus or a continuing resolution. It’ll be all the bills crammed together. It’s a terrible way to run government.But then we would ask them at that point, all right, you promised us you were going to do better. And once again, this isn’t an accusation against the president,” Paul told Kirk. “This is an accusation against GOP leadership on both sides.I’m saying, I don’t believe them or trust them. So, in three months, we’d get another bite at the apple and we’d say, all right, what have you done? And they would say, oh, we’re going to do it next time. And that’s what they say.”
“Right now, from Speaker Johnson, we hear he’s going to be conservative after the 2026 elections. The Senate has made it not just $4 trillion in borrowing, they want to do $5 trillion in borrowing, and they’ve explicitly told us it’s to get through the 2026 elections without talking about the debt,” the senator added. All of these things were conservatives would oppose, but now they, because they support the president so much, they’re willing to look the other way. I like the president. I like him personally.”
Paul then took aim at the recurring pattern of massive, last-minute spending bills that combine multiple legislative priorities into a single package. “It’s all the bills crammed together,” he said, arguing that this approach lacks transparency and accountability. He expressed frustration with Republican leaders who, he claims, repeatedly defer meaningful reforms with vague promises of action after future elections. “Right now, from Speaker Johnson, we hear he’s going to be conservative after the 2026 elections,” Paul remarked skeptically.
“I was his biggest defender against two impeachments. We’ll do it again. I’ve supported his nominees, but I’m just not going to go against all principle to support $5 trillion in borrowing because I don’t know who we would be or where we would be of a movement if nobody opposes this,” Paul said. “I’ve told them I will vote for the bill. Separate out the debt ceiling so I don’t have to give up all of my principles and I’ll vote for the bill.“
Despite Paul’s opposition, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) remains optimistic that Congress can pass the sweeping bill by July 4, despite ongoing challenges in the Senate. “We certainly hope, I believe, we can still meet that,” Johnson told reporters Monday. “It’s up to the Senate, the bill’s in the Senate’s hands now. But I spoke with Leader Thune as recently as last night, he’s feeling very optimistic.”
“I think it’s gonna go pretty quickly,” Trump added.
Meanwhile as noted above, Rand accused the White House of “immaturity” and “petty vindictiveness” on Wednesday after he and his family weredisinvited from the annual White House picnic held with members of both parties.
“The level of immaturity is beyond words,” said Paul, adding that he’s “lost a lot of respect” for Trump.
“It’s just incredibly petty,” he told CNN Wednesday evening. “I’m arguing from a true belief and worry that our country is mired in debt and getting worse. And they choose to react by uninviting my grandson to the picnic. I don’t know. I just think it really makes me lose a lot of respect I once had for Donald Trump.”
Paul: “I like Donald Trump, but when they want to act this way, it’s where they begin to lose a lot of America who just wonders, ‘Why does everything have to descend to this level?’”
Also takes a whack at Stephen Miller for “casually talking about getting rid of habeas corpus” pic.twitter.com/0ojRjYIIV9— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 12, 2025
On Thursday, however, Trump posted on Truth Social: “Of course Senator Rand Paul and his beautiful wife and family are invited to the BIG White House Party tonight. He’s the toughest vote in the history of the U.S. Senate, but why wouldn’t he be?”
Appropriations Process In Disarray As House Moves to Slash $9 Billion In Federal Programs
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jun 12, 2025 – 11:00 AM
The House is expected to vote Thursday on a sweeping $9 billion-plus rescissions package that would slash foreign aid and cut $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds NPR and PBS, even as deeper dysfunction in the congressional appropriations process threatens another government shutdown this fall.
The legislation, drafted by the White House and backed by Republican leadership, is likely to pass despite resistance from some GOP moderates and unified Democratic opposition.
The vote arrives amid growing uncertainty over the fiscal year 2026 spending process. With little progress in either chamber on the 12 annual appropriations bills, lawmakers are increasingly resigned to the likelihood of another continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open past September, Punchbowl News reports.
“If I were betting man right now, given the current environment, we will appropriate money by CR for the foreseeable future,” said Senator John Kennedy (R-LA), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. “So if you have a chance to change from the Approps Committee to Finance, you probably ought to do it.”
The House Appropriations Committee is expected to complete markup of four spending bills by Friday, all written to match the lower spending levels in former President Donald J. Trump’s budget proposal. The package includes tens of billions in cuts to domestic programs, making it a nonstarter for Democrats and the Democratic-controlled Senate.
Complicating matters further, Senate appropriators have not yet agreed on a topline number for spending. Senators Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and chair of the Appropriations Committee, and Patty Murray, Democrat of Washington and the committee’s ranking member, are not expected to reach a deal until after Republicans pass their reconciliation bill — likely no earlier than July.
“We just don’t know yet,” said Representative Tom Cole (R-OK), chair of the House Appropriations Committee. “Let’s assume we pass the ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’ I don’t think we know what that does. Does that break things loose or not?”
“There’s plenty of people on our side who like a CR,” he added. “It could easily happen again. It’s bad governance.”
The so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” – a Trump-endorsed initiative – includes $175 billion for border security, $150 billion in military spending, and a two-year increase in the debt ceiling. Democrats have rejected the measure, citing deep cuts to domestic programs and the absence of accountability mechanisms on executive spending.
Some Republicans, however, suggest that Trump and his advisers may prefer the flexibility afforded by a CR – or even a government shutdown, particularly if the BBB is signed into law.
“I think there are probably some people in the administration who think quite frankly that they have more flexibility under a CR or even a shutdown,” said Representative Ken Calvert (R-CA), chair of the Defense Subcommittee on House Appropriations. “I think that shocks a lot of members here.”
Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), warned that repeated use of CRs undermines congressional authority.
“If we do two CRs in a row, it will be a self-inflicted wound by Senate Republican appropriators and Senate Republicans to diminish not just the power of the committee but to diminish Congress’s power of the purse,” he said.
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), said the effect is to sideline legislative input on federal spending. “Any long-term CR plays into what it seems this administration would like, which is bills with no guardrails,” she said.
The underlying tension is a struggle over control of federal spending between Congress and the executive branch. Democrats blame Trump and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought for flouting the 1974 Budget and Impoundment Control Act, which requires presidents to spend money as appropriated by Congress.
Republicans counter that Democrats stalled earlier efforts to reach a compromise, particularly over efforts to restrict Trump’s spending discretion. “You’re not gonna have a Republican Senate and the House limit a Republican president,” said Cole.
The political cost of such battles has already been significant. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy lost his position over a CR. Speaker Mike Johnson vowed early in his tenure to avoid repeating that path, but growing pressure within his conference suggests another short-term funding bill is increasingly likely.
Representative Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, offered a grim assessment.
“To hell with the Congress,” she said. “It’s bad for the American people. It’s bad for the American people. They’re lying about what’s in these bills. That’s the tragedy.“
Meanwhile, on a lighter note, Republicans defeated Democrats 13–2 in Wednesday night’s Congressional Baseball Game – their fifth straight win. More than 31,000 tickets were sold, raising $2.8 million for charity.
Big Beautiful Bill
Meanwhile, House Republicans have successfully amended their party-line tax and spending package, eliminating policies that would have ruined the Big Beautiful Bill’s ability to be passed without a simple majority, and would have been subject to Democrat filibuster.
Among the major items deleted, “$2 billion for Pentagon military intelligence programs and more than $500 million for developing missiles, as well as removing a crackdown on the “employee retention” tax credit that became a magnet for fraudsters during and after the pandemic,” according to Politico.
Republicans are now hoping to rewrite some of these policies tossed by the House and fold them into the Senate’s version of the package before their target passage date of July 4th.
END
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING LARRY KLAYMAN
LA More Than An Insurrection, “It’s A Bolshevik-Style Revolution” Driven By Foreign Money
What Klayman is seeing is far more than some violent protests on the West Coast.
Klayman warns, “This is a very dire period…”
” We knew this was coming. This is more than an insurrection, this is a Bolshevik style revolution. It’s not just Bolsheviks, but it’s every conceivable leftist radical group. This is financed, undoubtedly, by people like George Soros. . .. Karen Bass is a DEI affirmative action mayor in Los Angeles. She was going to be Biden’s second choice to be vice president, God forbid. . .. They are using her. The Left is using her, and they are using Newsom and others. They want there to be some kind of tragedy in LA. They want there to be some kind of Kent State where someone gets killed. They want one of these protesters to be killed by the National Guard or by the military. This will be a flash point to carry forth this Bolshevik revolution. They want to take this county down to ground zero. This is what they are trying to do. They want to destabilize the country and bring these radicals out.”
Klayman goes on to say, “There is, undoubtedly, foreign money involved probably from communist China, Iran and North Korea…”
” There is probably money coming from the Left with Soros and others.
They want this country at a point that is destroyed, and then they take control. That is their motivation. That is what happened in Russia when they had the Bolshevik Revolution. That’s what happened in China with Mao. This is a plan. This is a playbook. This is why we need to push back, and that is why President Trump needs to crush this right now to make an example of this. Frankly, he should have Governor Newsom arrested, and he should have Karen Bass arrested. They are inciting violence, and they are fomenting revolution. . ..
We are under attack, and President Trump needs to declare martial law.”
Klayman says the riots in LA are not a sign of Trumps failure as a President, but it is a sign of his success.
Klaman explains, “They are making their move. ..”
“We predicted this several months ago. It was just a matter of time, and it built and built and built, and now they see Trump, regardless of these judges . . . and they see Trump is at the point of possibly succeeding. So, they are going to do a number on the President of the United States. . ..
Iran is not going to give way, and they are going to continue to enrich uranium. They know, ultimately, we will be backed into a corner, and we are going to have to attack them. This is a last-ditch effort to try to eliminate President Trump and try to weaken our country before that occurs.”
Klayman says the so-called autopen scandal of the Biden Administration will reveal that pardons were sold by staff. Klayman contends this is something Trump did not do in office the first term or this term.
Klayman says, “The whole system is corrupt. It is a pay-to-play system. . .. The American people were sold out. I doubt there was not much of anything that was approved by Joe Biden.”
In closing, Klayman says:
“This is a do or die life experience. Today it’s LA, tomorrow it’s going to be coming to your hometown and your neighborhood.”
There is more in the 43-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org, as he sounds the alarm on a communist takeover attempt for America that is just starting for 6.10.25.
harveyorganblog.com 
