GOLD CLOSED UP $1.30 TO $3,389.70

SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.20 TO $36.87

GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3467.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $36.62

Bitcoin morning price:$105,220 UP 70 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $104,210 DOWN 940 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $54.55 TO $1319.60

Palladium price; UP $2.55 TO $1053.60

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,607.23 DOWN 8.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2510.20 DOWN 11.72 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,566.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MAY 6/2025

*EURO GOLD: 2934.09 DOWN 4.94 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 3018.80 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,386.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/17/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 06/20/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 170
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 258 79
880 C CITIGROUP 2
905 C ADM 8

TOTAL: 260 260
MONTH TO DATE: 27,160

MONTH TO DATE: 26,900

JPMORGAN STOPPED 79/260

JUNE

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024: 260 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 26, 000 OZ or 0.8057 TONNES

total notices so far: 27,160 contracts for 2,716,000 OR 84.479 tonnes)

FOR JUNE

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 3244 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 16.220 million oz

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $1.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.20 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//

CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:

CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.096 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 4249 CONTRACTS TO 184,831 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.67 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AND WE FINALLY HAVE THE PIERCING OF $34.40 TO 34.50 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5042 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A 516 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $37.07. . BUT WE ENDED OUR MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE WITH MONDAY NIGHT’S 297 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A STRONG 1516 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 624 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN WEDNESDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE SIZED 4765 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.67.

THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH LAST WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY AS SILVER PRICE ROCKETED PAST THE $34.40 BARRIER! . THE PRICE OF SILVER FINISHED TRADING AT $36.56 AS WE WILL NOW HEAD FOR THE ALL TIME HIGH OF $50.00

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A HUGE 573 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.67) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1830 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE HAD A 516 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 9.90 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 225,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.755 MILLION OZ!!

THUS:

INITIAL STANDING FOR JUNE: 9.90 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S 225,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = 16.775 MILLION OZ.

WE HAD:

/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A 516 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 516 CONTRACTS)

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 277 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 DAY(S), total 11,993 contracts: OR 59.965 MILLION OZ (922 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 59.965 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)

DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ

JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)

FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL

MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.

APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE

MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 59.965 MILLION OZ (NOTICE EFP ISSUANCE GETTING LARGER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4249 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.67 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG 516 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 516 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK

FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ

AND MAY:

NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ

AND NOW JUNE: INITIAL 9.90 MILLION OZ PLUS 225,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = 16.755 MILLION OZ

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (573 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (MONDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.

WE HAD 50 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 250,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1893 OI CONTRACTS TO 441,214 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 420 CONTRACTS //.

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (1893 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $9.60 IN PRICE// TUESDAY///.

MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:

FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD

JUNE CONTRACT MONTH

/ WE HAD A $9.60 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3629 OI CONTRACTS (11.28 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE DURING THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF MAY, AND THROUGHOUT EACH AND EVERY DAY MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE JUNE CONTRACT MONTH….. A SMALLISH 62.534 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S 4.4510 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 89.536 TONNES!!. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1736 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,214/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!

SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 184,831 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3629 CONTRACTS WITH 1893 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1736 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3929 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 624 CONTRACTS

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(1736) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1893 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3629 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) WEAK INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JUNE AT 62.524TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4.4510 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 89.536 TONNES./

NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JUNE CONTRACT AT 89.536 TONNES OF GOLD.

/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION , AS WE HAD 1)A $9.60 COMEX PRICE LOSS.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED DESPITE THAT LOSS IN PRICE AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 3629 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY BUT SMALLER FOR JUNE!

4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (1550 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 624 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE INITIAL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 22,371 CONTRACTS OR 2,237,100 OZ OR 69.58 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1720 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 69.58 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 69.58 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.94% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

2024 AND 2025:

JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE

TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES

JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)

FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.

APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.

MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH

JUNE: 69.58 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 4249 CONTRACTS OI TO 184,831 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 516 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 516 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 516 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4249 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 516 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4765 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.11 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 23.83 MILLION PAPER OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.67 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT

Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.40 PTS OR 0.04%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 269.61 PTS OR 1.12%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 348.41 PTS OR 0.90% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.15%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1871 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1989/ Oil UP TO 74.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 76.15 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1871 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1845 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER

END

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3 CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1893 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 441,214 OI DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.60 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1736 ). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION

THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY WAS RECORDED AT 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE GETTING QUITE ANTSY OF GETTING ITS GOLD BACK.

IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.

HISTORY: LAST FIVE MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK

IN MARCH:

THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.

IN FEBRUARY:

WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.

THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:

THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)

THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)

IN APRIL:

WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.

IN MAY:

MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!

IN JUNE

JUNE: ZERO ISSUED SO FAR!!

DETAILS ON JUNE COMEX MONTH//INITIAL

IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3629 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF MAY, AND JUNE CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS SMALL AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 624 T.A.S.

THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , INITIAL STANDING IS RECORDED AT 62.534 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S 4.4510 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 85.023 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FOR THE MONTH: 26.939 TONNES

NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JUNE: 89.5367 TONNES

THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 32+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 225 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1736 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 1736 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1736 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.

WE HAD :

ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE

T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL SIZED, 624 CONTRACTS.

THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:

STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.

MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL MAY AND JUNE

THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!

STANDING LAST 6 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD

YEAR 2025:

JAN 2025:

113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)

FEB: 2025:

256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)

MARCH:

STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

APRIL:

FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES

MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.

JUNE: INITITAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 4.4519 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 89.536 TONNES

THIS IS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD!!

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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX

JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES

DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES

total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes

COMEX GOLD TRADING/JUNE CONTRACT MONTH

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $9.60/ /) BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////TUESDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING

TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT

THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER

EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JUNE TRADING

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES

THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.

EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH

EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.

MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3

TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.

APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES

SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:

ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.

MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.

JUNE ISSUANCE: SO FAR ZERO

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ANALYSIS JUNE DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JUNE COMEX CONTRACT

WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 11.28 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE FIRST RECORDED AT 62.534 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/MAY 30. TO THIS WE ADD TUESDAY NIGHT’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 143,100 OZ OR 4.4510 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING FOR JUNE GOLD ADVANCES TO 89.5367.

ALL OF THIS QUITE SMALL STANDING FOR JUNE WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.60

WE HAD A SMALL 420 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3629 CONTRACTS OR 362,900 0Z (11.28 TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 219,624. contracts: fair volume////

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

INITIAL

JUNE CONTRACT MONTH

JUNE 18/2025

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	1 ENTRY i) JPMorgan: 289.354 oz 9 kilobars total withdrawal weight: 289.354 oz .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	0 ENTRIES
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today	260 notice(s) 26,000 OZ 0.8087 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1626 contracts 162,600 OZ 5.052 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	27,160 notices 2,716,0000 oz 84.479 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*

dealer deposits: 0 entry

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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER

we have 0 customer entries

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withdrawals:

1 ENTRY

i) JPMorgan: 289.359 oz

total withdrawal weight: 289.359 oz

9 kilobars

adjustments: 1//

Delaware customer to dealer: 204.931 oz

AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE

THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE STANDS AT 1886 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 872 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 559 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 1431 CONTRACTS FOR 143,100 OZ OR 4.4510 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH UNDERWENT A HUGE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT 62.534 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 89.536 TONNES

JULY LOST 156 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 6760

AUGUST GAINED 653 CONTRACTS UP TO 333,770

We had 260 contracts filed for today representing 26,000 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 258 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 260 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 79 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,160 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (1886 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (260 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,878,600 OZ OR 89.536 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 89.536 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (27,160 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JUNE (1886 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (260 x 100 oz) which equals 2,878,600 OZ OR 89.536 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 89.536 tonnes

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.: 89.536 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..JUNE DID NOT FOLLOW FEB AND APRIL’S LEAD!!

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,187,988.142 oz 68.05 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 37,784,179.633 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,335,790,414: or 632.522 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,448,389.219 OZ

END

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 18,147,589 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 564.44 tonnes //

SILVER/COMEX

THE JUNE 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

JUNE 18

INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	2 withdrawals: customer side/eligible 2 withdrawals: i) Brinks 508,591.500 oz ii) HSBC 339,441.550 oz total weight; 848,033.050 oz
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	0 entry
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
No of oz served today (contracts)	50 CONTRACT(S) (250,000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)	57 contract (0.285 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	3294 Contracts (16.470 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

1 deposits into dealer accounts

0 entry

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0 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)

withdrawals: customer side/eligible

2 withdrawals:

2 withdrawals:

i) Brinks 508,591.500 oz

ii) HSBC 339,441.550 oz

total weight; 848,033.050 oz

ADJUSTMENTs 0

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 214.820million oz/495.735 oz million or 43.14%

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 161.938 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 495.735 Million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2025 OI: 107 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 41 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 4 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 45 CONTRACTS OR 0.225 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP IN ORDER TO TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

JULY LOST1131 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 83,687

AUGUST GAINED 26 CONTRACTS TO 681

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 50 or 250,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 100,950 huge//

AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3294 X5,000 oz = 16.470 MILLION oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (187) AND the number of notices served upon today (50 )x (5000 oz)

Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2025 contract month: (3294) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE(187) minus number of notices served upon today (50)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE contract month equating to 16.755 MILLION OZ .

New total standing: 16.755 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of JUNE.

We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.

There are 161.938million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES

JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES

JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES

JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES

JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES

JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES

JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES

JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES

JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES

JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES

JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES

JUNE 2 WITH GOLD UP $80.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES

MAY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES

MAY 29 WITH GOLD UP $22.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.71 TONNES

MAY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.61 TONNES

MAY 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.46 TONNES

MAY 23 WITH GOLD UP $69.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.89TONNES

MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.88 TONNES

MAY 21 WITH GOLD UP $28.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.60 TONNES

MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.03 TONNES

MAY 19 WITH GOLD UP $46.65 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES

MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES

MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES

MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES

MAY 13 WITH GOLD UP $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES

MAY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.94 TONNES

MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.68 TONNES

MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $82.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.23 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.67 TONNES

MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES

MAY 6 WITH GOLD UP $101.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.32 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.96 TONNES

MAY 5 WITH GOLD UP $77.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.28 TONNES

MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES

MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES

APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 945.94 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)

JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $1.58/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.

MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.773 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.

MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.

MAY 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.

MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.

MAY 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.38/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.375 MILLION OZ

MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ

MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.091 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ

MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.65/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.784 MILLION OZ

MAY 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.17/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.193 MILLION OZ

MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ

MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ

MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ

MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.44/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ

MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.001 MILLION OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.7845 MILLION OZ

MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.31/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.92 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.818 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.783 MILLION OZ

MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.117 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.602 MILLION OZ

MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ

MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ

APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 471.823 MILLION OZ//

SINGAPORE VOLUMES AND VOLUMES FOR JUNE 16

SHANGHAI VOLUMES FOR JUNE 17

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

PETER SCHIFF

MATHEW PIEPENBERG

2.ALASDAIR MACLEOD

Zero hedge

Gold vs The Dollar: The Death Of Fiat In One Chart

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 10:35 PM

Earlier today we reported that the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey confirmed what most already knew: that the shoeshine boy, the kitchen sink, and the basement-dwelling daytrader, not to mention everyone on Wall Street, were short the dollar. In fact, according to the FMS respondents, professional traders were effectively shorting the dollar in record amounts.

But while we will leave aside the debate whether this record dollar short will transform into a record squeeze, another question is just as appropriate: is the decline and fall of the US dollar just a one-time flash in the pan, or is there something much more ominous here than meets the eye.

The answer, it turns out, is the latter: the decline of the dollar has been truly a secular development, one which started over a decade ago but was kicked into higher gear in the aftermath of the 2022 Ukraine war when the weaponization of the US Dollar sparked a flight away from the greenback – i.e., dedollarization – by any regime that was worried it may be on the receiving end of SWIFT sanctions.

But what is perhaps far more notable is that as Socgen shows, since 2024, dedollarization has not benefited any of the major reserve currencies as one would expect in a fiat world where one currency’s loss is another currency’s gain. Instead, the share of gold in the IMF’s classification has increased.

As the French bank goes on to note, the erosion of the dollar’s share in global FX reserves, or de-dollarization, paused during the COVID crisis in 2020 but resumed in the second half of 2023. Since 3Q23, the share of USD FX reserves has fallen below 50%, representing a decline of -5.8%. The main beneficiary has been gold, which increased by +7.9% to 23.3%, reflecting how central banks are diversifying their dollar holdings…

… although one look at the price of gold would have been sufficient.

Perhaps the most surprising outcome of the dedollarization process is that process it has not benefited any of the major reserve currencies; indeed, the share of EUR, GBP, CNY and JPY has been declining too.

Meanwhile, despite the laughable attempts of ECB head Christine Lagarde to paint the Eurozone and the euro as somehow more stable than the world’s reserve currency – when just over a decade ago the euro was hours away from disintegration and only Mario Draghi’s a last ditch gambit to do “whatever it takes” prevented the complete disintegration of the Eurozone – Gold has now overtaken the euro as the world’s second-most important reserve asset for central banks, driven by record purchases and soaring prices, according to the European Central Bank.

As shown in the chart below, gold accounted for 20% of global official reserves last year, surpassing for the first time the euro’s 16%, and second only to the US dollar at 46%, data from an ECB report published on Wednesday showed.

“Central banks continued to accumulate gold at a record pace,” the ECB wrote, adding that central banks for the third year in a row acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2024, a fifth of the total global annual production and twice the annual amount in the decade of the 2010s.

As the FT notes, the stock of gold held by central banks worldwide is approaching the historic highs of the postwar Bretton Woods era. Until 1971, global exchange rates were fixed to the dollar, which in turn could be converted into gold at a fixed exchange rate. That all ended with the Nixon gold shock in 1971.

Central bank gold reserves, which peaked at 38,000 tonnes in the mid-1960s, rose again to reach 36,000 tonnes in 2024, according to the latest ECB numbers. “Central banks worldwide now hold almost as much gold as they did in 1965,” the ECB report said.

Large buyers last year included India, China, Turkey and Poland, according to the World Gold Council.

While there are no indications that the relentless demand for gold among official buyers is slowing, the ECB noted that the supply of gold in recent decades increased during times of high prices: “If history is any guide, further increases in the official demand for gold reserves may also support further growth in global gold supply.”

Which is a wonderful theoretical thought experiment, the only problem is that now that gold has become a Giffen good (where demand only goes up with price), any incremental supply will be quickly absorbed by even more demand.

And if that is indeed the case, and the current trajectory of gold accumulation and dedollarization persist, expect gold to surpass the dollar as the world’s preferred reserve currency sometime in 2030… right around the time US debt will be $50 trillion and bitcoin will be well over $1 million.

Which is ironic: a handful of powerful brought the end of the Bretton Woods world in the early 1970s, sparking an anti-gold regime which was adopted by a world kicking and screaming in disgust. 50 years later, without any outside influence, the world in which gold is once again the reserve “currency” has effectively returned.

Nature is healing.

More in the full Socgen note available to pro subs.

3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS DISPATCHES

With new refinery, Mali aims to process all locally mined gold domestically

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-06-17 09:28 Section: Daily Dispatches

Mali Starts Construction of Russia-Backed Gold Refinery

By Tiemoko Diallo and Idrissa Sangare
Reuters
Tuesday, June 17, 2025

BAMAKO, Mali — Mali began on Monday construction of a new Russia-backed gold refinery, which the West African country’s military leader said would take it closer to asserting control over its natural resources.

The 200-ton capacity facility, in which Mali has a controlling stake, will be built in partnership with Russia’s Yadran Group and a Swiss investment company.

Mali’s interim president, Col. Assimi Goita, said last year that all mining companies will be required to process their gold domestically under a revised mining code, without providing a deadline.

That reflects a broader regional shift extending across the Sahel, where Guinea, Niger, and Burkina Faso have also revised mining codes to mandate local processing, adding value to their exports and boosting the economic benefits of their resources.

“Since 1980, Mali’s gold has been exported for refining and sale to countries such as the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, and Switzerland,” Goita said at the groundbreaking ceremony for the new plant in Senou, outside the capital, Bamako.

“This deprives our country of substantial revenues that could be used for the development of its economy.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-starts-construction-russia-backed-gold-refinery-2025-06-17/

end

Many exporters no longer want dollars, U.S. bank executive says

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-06-17 09:18 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Cater Johnson
Bloomberg News
via The Edge, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
Tuesday, June 17, 2025

When Paula Comings, the head of currency sales for U.S. Bancorp, talks to U.S. importers, she increasingly hears the same message: Their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars.

Instead, they ask for settlement in euros, Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso, or the Canadian dollar, looking to limit their exposure to further swings in the greenback.

“A lot of clients previously were reluctant because dollars were sacred in the eyes of the supplier,” Comings said. “Now the vibe from overseas vendors seems to be, ‘Just give us our currency.'” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/759213

END

Ghana has lost billions to gold smuggling, links to UAE, report says

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-06-16 19:47 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Maxwell Akalaare Adombita
Reuters
Monday, June 16, 2025

DAKAR, Senegal — Ghana is losing billions of dollars in revenue annually to smuggling from its booming artisanal gold mining sector with much of the gold flowing to the United Arab Emirates, according to a report by nonprofit Swissaid.

The report found a staggering 229-metric ton trade gap, equivalent to $11.4 billion, between Ghana’s gold exports and corresponding imports over just five years, with most of the smuggled gold ending up in Dubai.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation, who analyses insurgency and artisanal mining operations in the region.

“Hand-carried gold does not have to be declared in Dubai. … Informal gold is mostly brought in on flights,” highlighting other opaque ways Africa’s gold is smuggled into the UAE.

The Swissaid report said Ghana’s gold is largely smuggled to Togo before ending up in Dubai while some bullion passes through Burkina Faso into Mali, using porous borders.

A senior official at Ghana’s regulatory Minerals Commission described Swissaid’s findings as “a notorious fact.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/ghana-has-lost-11-billion-gold-smuggling-links-uae-report-finds-2025-06-16/

END

‘Fiat is a fraud’: Ricardo Salinas says bitcoin and gold are the only way out

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-06-16 19:17 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jeremy Szafron
Kitco News, Montreal
Monday, June 16, 2025

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas says the fiat money system is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions, and that bitcoin and gold remain the only lifelines for savers and investors.

“Fiat money is a fraud,” Salinas said in a new interview with Kitco News. “It’s a scam. It’s fake money. And it’s coming to an end.”

Salinas, chairman of Grupo Salinas and one of Latin America’s wealthiest bitcoin holders, warned that current government monetary policies — particularly in the U.S. and Mexico — are pushing global economies toward financial repression and stealth confiscation through inflation.

“In the United States they have a spending problem,” he said. “They spend money they don’t have, and then they print the difference. It’s going to end badly — not only for Americans, but for everyone who holds dollars.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-06-16/fiat-fraud-ricardo-salinas-says-bitcoin-and-gold-are-only-way-out

END

LIVE FROM THE VAULT 227

Episode 227

5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:IRON ORE

Iron Ore Prices Tumble To 9-Month Low, Citi & Goldman Ratchet Down Price Target

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 08:30 PM

Iron ore, widely seen as a real-time barometer of China’s economic pulse, is flashing fresh warning signs. Prices slid for a fourth straight session in Singapore, dropping below $93 a ton and hitting their lowest level in nine months.

China, the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, imports more than 70% of globally traded volumes. That gives iron ore prices an outsized role as a proxy for Chinese economic momentum, and the latest trade data suggests the world’s second-largest economy is still struggling to gain momentum, remaining mired in deflation.

At the start of the week, figures from China showed that nationwide steel output in May declined on a daily basis compared to April. Output was down about 7% from a year ago, marking the weakest May since 2018.

“Steel demand in China is likely to remain weak over the coming months over the upcoming seasonal lull,” Citigroup analysts wrote in a note, slashing iron ore forecasts.

They noted that China’s property market weakness has yet to show a meaningful turnaround while manufacturing continues to face headwinds. As a result, their three-month price forecast was lowered to $90 a ton from $100, and the six-to-twelve-month target was revised down to $85 from $90.

In a separate note, Goldman analyst James McGeoch provided a gloomy outlook for iron ore by ratcheting down price targets…

Not taking a lot of lead, notable that China has been a very very quiet tape, waiting, watching….. clearly Iron ore at $93.00 stands out, when I talk to trading they suggest the most convincing trade is further curve flattening out on back of mounted physical selling pressure in front months and continuous consumer hedging in the back end of the curve, Both miners and phys traders are selling tonnes aggressively, yes there is a flat price call that you can play the $90-95 range, however it’s a downward sloping trend. Recall start o year we kind of liked this $100-110 range (china infra seen as supportive and property policy creating a trough), that became $95-105, which became $90-100 (as infra in particular didn’t see the post winter pickup we expected) and its now $90-95 range.

McGeoch pointed to sliding steel prices in China.

China’s steel exports remain elevated.

The key takeaway is that China’s subdued iron ore market reflects the broader economic downturn, with persistent weakness in the property sector and no meaningful signs of recovery.

END

PLATINUM….

“Metal Is Flowing To The Far East” – Platinum Makes New Highs Amid Huge ETF Redemptions

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 04:45 PM

Platinum is making new highs once again…

As we have detailed in recent weeks, it’s not just gold that is breaking out to new highs, platinum is too…

…and, as UBS trading desk notes, this is coming in the face of heavy ETF redemptions.

Given the tightness in the forward markets and a lot of metal coming out of the ETFs, this would indicate these redemptions are not outright selling of the metal, simply a transfer of the exposure to physical metals.

Two possibilities come to mind:

Some sell side banks are taking the physical in order to take advantage of the advantageous levels to lend the metal;
… but given the tightness has not showed to much easing, the other view is that the metal is flowing to the Far East at an increased level.

Chinese jewelry and retail investment were the spark that kicked this rally off and it seems that they could still be shipping in physical.

That said, the surge in Chinese demand is recent. In the year to April 30, the nation’s total platinum imports actually fell 31% compared with the previous 12 months. But, as with everything Asia, once the momentum traders latch on, the upside is virtually unlimited.

Pro Subscribers can read the full Goldman notes behind the rise of Platinum here…

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.40 PTS OR 0.04%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 269.61 PTS OR 1.12%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 348.41 PTS OR 0.90% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.15%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1871 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1989/ Oil UP TO 74.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 76.15 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1871 AND WEAK//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1845 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1871 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1989 (CCP MANIPULATED)

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.40 PTS OR 0.04%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 269.61 PTS OR 1.12%

2. Nikkei closed UP 348.41 PTS OR 0.90%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.26// EURO RISES TO 1.1505 UP 23 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.445//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 145.08…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5410/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.5390 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.242%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.332

3j Gold at $3383.70 Silver at: 37.26 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 15 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.64

3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 145.08// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.445% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8168 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9348 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.392 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.900 UP 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.956 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.54

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5400 DOWN 2 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.367 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.958 DOWN 3 PTS

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Rise Into The Fed Day As Dip Buyers Return

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 08:29 AM

US equity futures are modestly higher into Fed Day, bucking the trend of lower Asian and European markets, as the market shrugs off geopolitics after the US did not join Israel in bombing Iran and the dip buyers return. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futs rise 0.2% even as global equities trade mostly in the red following the 6th day of strikes between Isreal/Iran. Pre-mkt, Mag7/Semis are outperforming; cyclicals poised for a strong day as Financials get a boost from de-reg after Bloomberg reported that regulators plan to reduce a key capital buffer for big lenders to ease constraints over trading in the Treasuries market. Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates by 25bps (expected) while UK CPI was mostly in-line ahead of BoE rate decision tomorrow…FTSE flat/DAX -30bps/CAC -10bps/ Shanghai +4bps/Hang Seng -1.12%/Nikkei +90bps. Overnight, Trump called for Iran’s unconditional surrender/Iran said they will not accept an imposed peace or war and that they will respond “very seriously”/Iran said to be preparing missiles for possible retaliatory strikes on US Bases/worries about the straight of Hormuz where 20% of world seaborne-trade oil supply travels through daily/US announced a meeting on Weds with Pakistan’s army head to discuss mediation. Otherwise, all eyes on FOMC and the dotplot (economists expects them to remain on hold until further clarity about policy/tariff/economic outlook). Treasury yields are lower, the USD weaker, and commodities seeing profit-taking. While the Fed is the focal point of today’s macro data, keep an eye on initial claims and an update to the trend. TIC data at 4pm will show (lagged) foreign ownership of Treasuries. Focus is also on whether the US is planning to get directly involved in the Middle East conflict.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mostly higher alongside index futures (Tesla +0.3%, Meta +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%). Alcohol beverage stocks may move after Reuters reports that US Dietary Guidelines are expected to eliminate the long-standing recommendation that adults limit alcohol consumption to one or two drinks per day. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

Biomea Fusion (BMEA) falls 8% after the drug developer launched an offering of stock and warrants.
Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) drops 6% after the Bitcoin miner said it was offering $300 million in convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private placement.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) climbs 3% after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation setting up regulatory rules for cryptocurrencies pegged to the dollar.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) gains 2%, with analysts positive on the chipmaker following an event focused on AI, where Marvell raised its overall data center total addressable market to $94 billion by 2028, up from $75 billion.
Nucor (NUE) rises 2% after the steelmaker forecast earnings per share for the second quarter, guidance that beat the average analyst estimate.

Fed policymakers face heightened uncertainty as geopolitical tension adds to the inflation and labor market risks that are tied to the Trump administration’s trade policies. While tariffs haven’t so far accelerated price increases, consumers are turning anxious and household finances have worsened. Officials are widely expected to hold policy steady on Wednesday for a fourth straight meeting (see full preview here). Traders continue to wager on just shy of two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, with the first move fully priced in for October. Fed officials penciled in two cuts for 2025 at their March projection.

“This is the meeting where the Fed will have fully incorporated tariffs into their forecasts,” Citigroup Inc. economist Andrew Hollenhorst told Bloomberg TV. “What they’re going to do with the dots is to leave them where they are. If you look at the inflation data that we have in hand, it’s a little bit hard be arguing that they need to get a lot more hawkish.”

Brent crude traded near $76.50 a barrel after rallying around 10% since Israel started its offensive against Iran last week. Markets are awaiting news on whether the US plans to become directly involved in the conflict, raising concerns about supply disruptions.

An overnight meeting between President Donald Trump and his national security team ensured tensions remain high, with speculation rife the US is close to joining Israel’s attacks. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that his country won’t surrender.

“Thus far we’ve seen the conflict in the Middle East having a relatively contained impact on markets,” Ursula Marchioni, BlackRock Inc.’s EMEA head of investments and portfolio solutions, told Bloomberg TV. If we were to see an escalation, “that is where you’ll start to see a transmission mechanism unlocking toward further inflationary pressure and potential impact on growth

Not helping sentiment was news that the European Union is refusing to hold an economic meeting with China due to a lack of progress on trade disputes. And speaking of Europe, the Stoxx 600 trades down -0.3% but off session lows, with health care and automobile shares leading declines, while utilities and real estate stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

Airbus shares rise as much as 3.9% after the planemaker said it was extending the upper range of its dividend payout ratio to 30-50% from the current level of 30-40%
Gerresheimer shares gain as much as 7.7%, best performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Wednesday morning, after the drug-packaging maker said KPS Capital Partners is still in discussions with Warburg Pincus
Rathbones rises as much as 8.1%, the most in more than three years, after BofA initiates coverage of the UK wealth manager with a recommendation of buy, citing the integration of IW&I as well as flow trends.
Howden Joinery Group falls as much as 3.5% after analysts at Citi said they have a negative short-term view on the kitchen manufacturer as soft demand could weigh on investor sentiment, while CFRA added the stock to its “Biggest Concerns List”
Grenergy Renovables slides as much as 10% after investors offered shares at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank shares plunge as much as 13%, hitting their lowest level in over two months, after the specialist bank for commercial real estate pulled its guidance for this year, warning it is discontinuing its US business and could report an annual loss
Tullow Oil shares plummet as much as 22%, the most since 2020, after Sky News reported that talks about a merger with Meren Energy have collapsed. Analysts at Shore Capital believe Tullow’s ongoing debt refinancing plans may have proved an obstacle to talks progressing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks struggled for direction as traders monitored the latest developments in the Middle East and awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was steady, with gains in Japanese and South Korean shares offset by losses in Hong Kong and India. Tencent and Alibaba were among the biggest drags on the benchmark, while Nintendo and TSMC advanced. Also hurting on sentiment was news that the European Union is refusing to hold an economic meeting with China due to a lack of progress on trade disputes. That’s adding to geopolitical worries and “raises fears of deeper decoupling beyond the US-China relationship, weighing on sentiment in Hong Kong given its close ties to mainland markets and sensitivity to global investor flows,” said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. Meanwhile, a closely-watched forum in Shanghai featuring China’s financial chiefs has so far yielded little positive surprise for investors.

In FX, the Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1%; the Fed is expected to keep rates steady but traders have amassed a record futures bet that there will be a more dovish tilt right after Powell’s term ends in May 2026. GBP/USD rose as much as 0.4% to 1.3476; UK inflation remained at its highest level in over a year. USD/SEK rose as much as 0.3% to 9.5795, with Sweden’s krona leading G-10 losses against the dollar; The Riskbank cut its key rate and signaled potential for more easing.

In rates, treasury yields are slightly lower as US trading gets under way, supported by bigger gains for gilts following UK May inflation data. US session includes weekly jobless claims report, a day earlier than normal because of US holiday Thursday. US yields are 1bp-2bp lower on the day with curve spreads little changed. 10-year is near 4.375% with UK counterpart outperforming by 2bp and gilts leading gains for most European bond markets. Fed rate decision at 2pm New York time and Chair Powell news conference 30 minutes later. Ahead of Fed rate decision, swaps market prices in 44bp of easing by year-end; no move is expected today, however revised dot plot has potential to show a median forecast of just one cut this year, vs two in March projections (see full preview here).

In commodities, oil has been choppy and is now down. WTI drops 1.1% to around $74/barrel. Gold fluctuates as well, and is now down some $3 to $3,385/oz.

In crypto, bitcoin is on a weaker footing and slips below USD 105k; Ethereum also lower to a similar degree but manages to hold above USD 2.5k. US Senate had enough votes for stablecoin bill passage, according to Bloomberg.

The US economic data slate includes May housing starts/building permits and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and April TIC flows (4pm).

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%,
Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
DAX little -0.3%
CAC 40 -0.1%
10-year Treasury yield 4.37%. 2bps
VIX -1 points at 20.63
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1207.62
euro +0.2% at $1.1508
WTI crude -1.3% at $73.9/barrel

Top Overnight News

Israel is running low on defensive Arrow interceptors, according to a U.S. official, raising concern about the country’s ability to counter long-range ballistic missiles from Iran if the conflict isn’t resolved soon. Tehran allegedly has plans to strike US bases in the region if the Pentagon joins Israel in striking Iran. WSJ, NYT
Fed Preview: Since the last FOMC meeting, trade tensions have diminished somewhat, inflation has been low, and the hard data have shown only limited signs of softening. At its June meeting, the FOMC will likely reiterate that it plans to remain on hold until it has further clarity and downplay its longer-term projections as highly contingent on a still very uncertain economic and policy outlook.
US bank regulators plan to reduce a key capital buffer for big lenders to ease constraints over trading in the Treasuries market, people familiar said. The proposal aims to cut the holding company’s capital requirement by up to 1.5 percentage points. BBG
Trump posted “U.S. Wage Growth BEST IN 60 YEARS!”, via Truth Social
China’s central bank governor has said he expects a new global currency order to emerge after decades of dominance by the US dollar, with the renminbi competing in a “multi-polar international monetary system.” FT
Chinese auto sales at risk of slowing as some cities pause sector stimulus after running out of funds. RTRS
Japan will prioritize protecting its national interests in trade talks without rushing into a deal with the US, Japanese PM Ishiba said as he wrapped up two days of meeting at the G7 gathering. BBG
The G7 meeting wraps up with no trade deals announced while the reciprocal tariff deadline fast approaches (July 9), leaving some to speculate if what the US asked from other countries is too high of a price for them to pay. WSJ
British inflation cooled in May as expected by the Bank of England, which is set to keep interest rates on hold this week while it assesses international energy markets rocked by escalating conflict in the Middle East. Core was inline (+3.5%, down from +3.8% in Apr). RTRS
Sweden’s Riksbank cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 2%, as expected, as the economic recovery loses momentum and inflation cools (the Riksbank said there was “some probability of another cut this year”). Riksbank

Tariffs/Trade

Mexican President Sheinbaum said she had a very good phone conversation with US President Trump; they agreed to work together to reach an agreement on diverse topics that worry them, according to Reuters.
White House said US President Trump will sign an additional executive order this week to keep TikTok running; the extension will last 90 days.
South Korea and the US are to hold the third round of trade talks next week, according to Maeil.
Japanese PM Ishiba agreed with US President Trump to continue ministerial-level tariff talks; Ishiba said Japan will continue to work intensely to achieve a trade deal with the US.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the softer handover from Wall Street, with stocks in the US spooked by what seemed like an imminent US involvement in Israel’s offensive against Iran. However, sentiment in APAC hours recovered as news surrounding US involvement quietened down overnight, with oil also coming off its best levels amid no signs of an American military attack. Ranges remained narrow ahead of the FOMC announcement. ASX 200 traded subdued with sectors overall mixed, but gold miners provided headwinds for the index. Nikkei 225 was modestly firmer and underpinned by recent losses in the JPY, while Japanese PM Ishiba agreed with US President Trump to continue ministerial-level tariff talks. Ishiba added that Japan would continue to work intensely to achieve a trade deal with the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded lower but to varying degrees with underperformance in Hong Kong, although with limited news from the region, and attention focused on geopolitics.

Top Asian News

PBoC governor said they will improve the monetary policy toolbox, according to Reuters.
Chinese FX regulator said exports have maintained resilience; recent buying of onshore stocks has increased; will continue to implement proactive macro policy; will keep yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 156.3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%
China will issue the rest of consumer goods trade-in funds in an orderly manner; is guiding local governments to use the funds in a stable pace. Has allocated CNY 162bln out of CNY 300bln in special treasury funds under the trade-in scheme to local governments.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened mixed on either side of the unchanged mark, before grinding ever so slightly higher as the morning progressed. More recently, however, indices have waned off best levels to now show a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed, in-fitting with the indecisive risk tone seen so far. Utilities takes the top spot, followed closely by Real Estate and then Insurance to complete the top three, whilst Healthcare lags.

Top European News

ECB’s Panetta says the ECB will continue to take decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without pre-committing to defined monetary policy course Macro risk arise from conflicting signals in US trade policy and recent escalation of Israel-Iran conflict. Macro outlook remains subject to substantial and difficult-qualify risks.
ECB’s Villeroy says Trade wars are unfortunate, they are nonsense because they add divisions, via Econostream.

DXY has given back some of Tuesday’s geopolitically-induced gains, given the lack of updates out of the region this morning. More focus on the FOMC announcement later with officials set to stand pat on policy given the highly uncertain economic outlook. There is a chance that the 2025 FFR dot may be tweaked to show just 25bps of loosening this year vs. the prior forecast of 50bps (it would only take two forecasters adjusting their call to shift the median view). DXY has delved as low as 98.50, comfortably above Tuesday’s trough at 98.02.
Incremental macro drivers for the Eurozone remain on the light side. Tuesday’s better-than-expected outturn for German ZEW – adding to the recent run of encouraging Eurozone data – failed to have a durable impact on the EUR, with the pair dictated more by price action in the broader USD. Docket today has included a few ECB speakers (reiterated the Bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach) and EZ HICP Finals (unrevised). EUR/USD briefly matched Tuesday’s low at 1.1474 but has since reclaimed its footing on a 1.15 handle.
JPY is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than peers on account of the recent upside in energy prices (Japan is a notable net importer of crude) and a lack of progress on the trade front. These effects appear to have limited JPY’s role as a safe-haven on Tuesday. USD/JPY briefly eclipsed yesterday’s high at 145.38, topping out at 145.44 before returning to levels closer to 145.
GBP firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD and flat vs. the EUR. Little sustained follow-through has been seen following the latest UK inflation metrics which matched Refinitiv expectations but was a touch above Bloomberg’s; the Services figures came in shy of expectations. The release saw incremental upside in the GBP but ultimately failed to sustain. GBP/USD is currently towards the bottom end of Tuesday’s 1.3415-1.3592 range.
Antipodeans are both attempting to claw back some of Tuesday’s risk-induced losses as high-beta FX tracks the recovery in sentiment after geopolitical updates quietened down overnight and the US has (for now) refrained from joining Israel’s attack on Iran. From a macro perspective, focus this week will be on NZ Q1 GDP metrics on Wednesday and Australian labour market data on Thursday.
SEK is net weaker vs. the EUR following the Riksbank’s decision to cut rates by 25bps and provide a rate path forecast which “entails some probability of another rate cut in 2025”.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1761 vs exp. 7.2027 (prev. 7.1746)
Chilean Central Bank maintains benchmark interest rate at 5.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous.

Fixed Income

USTs were exhibiting a modest bearish bias throughout the morning, given the improvement in the risk tone seen as the US is yet to get directly involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. However, this has been limited in nature with USTs only lower by at most 4+ ticks, and now has now edged just above the unchanged mark as broader peers rise. The upside seemingly stemming from a bit of a haven bid, amid reports that the Iranian Supreme leader is to speak shortly, via ISNA. The docket today is headlined by the FOMC, but before that May’s Building Permits/Housing Starts and Weekly Claims are due; latter expected at 245k (prev. 248k).
Bunds spent most of the morning in the red, but have flicked into positive territory in recent trade. German paper was moving higher into a 2054 & 2046 Bund auction, and then took another leg higher given its strong demand. Holding towards the upper-end of a 130.58-92 band. The low for the session printed alongside the UK CPI release (see Gilts), though the move in Bunds proved short lived and the benchmark quickly climbed back towards unchanged levels. Overall, the benchmark is in a holding pattern into the FOMC (see USTs) and updates on the geopolitical and/or trade fronts.
Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks and then slipped to a 92.48 low with downside of 20 ticks on the session. A bearish open that was driven by the lead from fixed peers, as the risk tone continues to recover, and following the digestion of UK data. In brief, CPI came in broadly unchanged from the prior in May, given the offsetting influences of air fares, fuel costs and food prices. Pertinently for the BoE, the services metrics were cooler than forecast and markedly so M/M. After the initial move lower, Gilts are now higher by 11 ticks, in-fitting with peers.
Germany sells EUR 1.408bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.50% 2054 and sells EUR 0.988bln vs. exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2046 Bund

Commodities

Crude futures are in the red, after a tentative overnight session awaiting further colour on US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. On energy commentary from within the region; Israeli Energy Minister Cohen said Israel’s energy sector is operating normally; Iranian Oil Minister said fuel supplies are currently stable, there are currently no issues – no move on these comments. Thereafter, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister says it is not considering exiting OPEC+ agreement, which sparked some very modest pressure in oil prices. Brent Aug’25 currently trades towards the bottom end of a USD 75.32-77.00/bbl band.
Spot gold is attempting to return to the green, after an overnight session spent mostly in negative territory. Overnight, the haven attempted to move beyond the USD 3,400 mark, where it stalled at USD 3399.99/oz, though it now trades at USD 3,384/oz.
Copper futures are modestly in the green, helped by a softer dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting. The red metal has waned in recent trade, and fell from session highs of USD 9,735/t, moving in tandem the USD attempting to pare some losses.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister says it is not considering exiting OPEC+ agreement.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says there is no shortage of oil due to Middle East conflict, no risk of Russian oil exports declining due to the conflict.
Israeli Energy Minister Cohen says Israel’s energy sector is operating normally; perhaps gas exports will resume in coming hours or days.
Iranian Oil Minister says fuel supplies are currently stable, there are currently no issues.
Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -10.133mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.32mln (exp. -0.1mln), Gasoline -0.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln.
Brent crude’s premium to Dubai at its highest since September 2023, according to sources and data cited by Reuters.
Qatar set June-loading Al-Shaheen crude term premium at USD 2.48/bbl, highest in a year, according to Reuters sources.

Geopolitics: Latest

Iranian Supreme leader to speak shortly, according to ISNA.
Iranian ambassador to the UN, says, if we come to the conclusion that the US is directly involved in attacks on Iran, we will start responding to the US

Geopolitics: Involvement

US officials signaled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible – or if the president might resort to military action instead, according to ABC.
“Western sources: We have indications that the US will attack Iran soon”, according to Kann News.
US embassy in Jerusalem will be closed Wednesday through Friday, according to the US State Department.
US President Trump is considering a range of options when it comes to Iran, including a possible US strike on the country, according to multiple officials cited by NBC.
Israel Channel 12 journalists report US could join the war against Iran Tuesday night, via Faytuks News citing a telegram post.

Geopolitics: Strikes Headlines

Iranian Revolutionary Guards said Iran’s Fattah missiles broke through Israeli defences, giving it ‘complete domination’ over Israeli airspace.
“Israel’s Channel 12: Army attacks Tehran’s refineries”, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli military said it attacked a centrifuge production site and several weapons production sites of the Iranian regime last night.
IDF Spokesman said the Iranian regime still has great capabilities that allow it to harm them, Al Jazeera reports. They attacked the IRGC headquarters and killed Iran’s Chief of Staff. “When we finish our mission, we will announce it and will not allow the existential threat against us to continue”.
Iran has reportedly prepared for strikes on US bases if the US joins the war, according to NYT; Officials suggest that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said The battle has begun, via Al Hadath.
Iranian state media claimed that tonight (Tuesday night) will “hold a surprise the world will remember for centuries”, according to multiple reports.
“IRGC: Attacks on Israel will continue continuously and gradually”, according to Sky News Arabia.

Geopolitics: Diplomacy Headlines

“Source familiar says there are no plans for a meeting this week between Witkoff and Araghchi”, according to an Al-Monitor journalist.

US Event Calendar

7:00 am: Jun 13 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 12.5%
8:30 am: May Housing Starts, est. 1350k, prior 1361k
8:30 am: May P Building Permits, est. 1422k, prior 1422k
8:30 am: Jun 14 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245k, prior 248k
8:30 am: Jun 7 Continuing Claims, est. 1940.5k, prior 1956k
2:00 pm: Jun 18 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 4.5%, prior 4.5%
2:00 pm: Jun 18 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), est. 4.25%, prior 4.25%
4:00 pm: Apr Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 161.8b
4:00 pm: Apr Total Net TIC Flows, prior 254.3b

Central Banks:

2:00 pm: FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A risk-off tone has returned to markets with renewed fears around a further escalation in the Middle East, particularly amid increasing questions over whether the US might join Israel’s strikes against Iran. Those fears saw oil prices post further gains yesterday, with Brent Crude (+4.40%) closing at its highest since February, at $76.45/bbl even if it did hit an intra-day high of $78.50 on Friday. It is little changed this morning. Oil is still below its 2024 average of $80 so we have to put things in perspective from an inflationary angle but it was trading at $58.20 in early May so this fillip to growth and inflation has faded somewhat.

For risk, matters also weren’t helped by a soft batch of US data yesterday, which showed retail sales and industrial production both falling in May. So overall, the newsflow of the last 24 hours has leant in a more stagflationary direction, which meant both the S&P 500 (-0.84%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.85%) saw fresh declines yesterday. Meanwhile, increased geopolitical risks and higher oil saw the dollar index (+0.84%) post its best day in over a month.

In terms of events in the Middle East, concerns over escalation grew after a series of hawkish Trump posts towards Iran, in which he demanded “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”, and said that “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran” and suggested that Iran’s leader Ayatollah Khamenei could be targeted: “We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now”. Those posts came ahead of the US president’s gathering with his national security team to discuss the Middle East conflict. Trump reportedly spoke to Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu after this meeting.

Ahead of that security meeting, Axios reported that Netanyahu believes Trump will attack Iran’s underground enrichment facility at Fordow in the coming days, with CBS also reporting that Trump was considering joining the strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. US capabilities are seen as potentially key to targeting the site. However, direct US involvement would risk Iranian retaliation again US facilities in the region, with the New York Times reporting that Iran was preparing for such action in the event of US strikes. This renewed escalation in rhetoric has left uncertainty hanging over markets and, at the same time, we’ve seen continued airstrikes between Israel and Iran, with Khamenei’s social media channel posting overnight that “the battle begins”.

The other negative driver yesterday came from US data that was underwhelming across the board. Notably, retail sales fell -0.9% in May (vs. -0.6% expected), which was a second consecutive monthly decline. And 45 minutes later, we also found out that industrial production fell -0.2% in May (vs. unch. expected), so there was little respite there either. Admittedly, some of the core measures fared better, and the retail control group was up +0.4% (vs. +0.3% expected). But the releases still meant the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 fell back a bit, down three-tenths to an annualised rate of 3.5%. Meanwhile, we also found out the NAHB’s latest housing market index had fallen to a two-and-a-half year low in June, at 32 (vs. 36 expected).

All that meant it was a rough day for risk assets, and the S&P 500 fell -0.84%. Apart from energy, all the major sector groups lost ground, including the Magnificent 7 (-1.06%). Several indicators pointed to more concern in markets, including the VIX index (+2.49pts), which jumped up to 21.60pts, whilst US HY spreads (+7bps) picked up from their 3-month low on Monday. And earlier in Europe, it hadn’t been much better, with major indices including the STOXX 600 (-0.85%), the DAX (-1.12%) and the CAC 40 (-0.76%) falling back.

Whilst the Middle East is the main focus for markets right now, today will also see the Fed announce their latest policy decision. A lot has happened since their last meeting in early May, including the dialling back of China tariffs, the Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, as well as the significant escalation in the Middle East. So given that uncertainty and the potential for fresh inflationary spikes, they’re widely expected to keep rates on hold again, and it means the focus will be on the dot plot for where they expect rates to go next. Our US economists think it’ll only signal one rate cut this year, which would be a hawkish shift from March, when they still signalled two cuts. However, they think it’s a close call, and they expect the Fed to mostly maintain existing signals about policy. For more info, see their full preview here.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, US Treasuries rallied yesterday, on flight to quality, and as the weak data cemented the view that rate cuts were still likely in the months ahead. That meant yields fell across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-1.5bps) down to 3.95%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.7bps) fell to 4.39%. The outperformance of long-end bonds came after news that the Fed will be holding a meeting on June 25 to discuss changes to the supplementary leverage ratio, which may allow banks to hold more Treasuries. At the short-end, the rally was limited by the rise in inflation expectations, with the 1yr US inflation swap up +7.8bps to 3.16%. We were at near 3 month lows below 3% as recently as of last Thursday, just before Israel’s strikes against Iran.

For Europe however, it was a different story, as inflation fears from higher energy prices dominated, pushing yields higher across the continent. In addition, there was more upbeat data from Germany, as the expectations component of the ZEW survey bounced up to 47.5 in June (vs. 35.0 expected). So yields on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+1.5bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) all moved higher.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, with the Hang Seng index leading the losses in the region, declining by -1.17%. The Shanghai Composite (-0.20%) is also lower along with the ASX (-0.11%). However, the Nikkei (+0.69%) is defying the regional trend, advancing to a four-month high, supported by a weaker yen, while the KOSPI (+0.32%) is also making gains. US equity futures are flat and 10-year USTs have increased by +1.4bps, now standing just above 4.40% as we go to print.

Early morning data revealed that Japan’s exports in May fell by -1.7% year-on-year, marking the most significant decline since September 2024, as the nation continues to face trade uncertainties. This decline was less severe than the -3.7% drop anticipated by Bloomberg but represents a reversal from the +2.0% increase recorded in April. Japan’s trade deficit swelled to -637.6 billion yen in May, which is smaller than the expected -896.5 billion yen, compared to a revised deficit of -115.6 billion yen the previous month.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Data releases include US housing starts and building permits for May, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the UK CPI print for May. ECB speakers include Elderson, Escriva, Villeroy, Knot, Panetta, Nagel, Centeno and Lane.

2b European Opening report

2c Asian opening report\

Stocks spooked by worries of potential US involvement in Israel-Iran conflict – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 01:22 AM

Stocks in the US were spooked by what seemed like an imminent US involvement in Israel’s offensive against Iran.
Firing between Israel and Iran continued overnight. Iran used a hypersonic missile, while no attacks were seen from the US. Risk recovered and oil waned off highs.
US officials signalled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible – or if the president might resort to military action instead, according to ABC.
APAC stocks were mostly lower following the softer handover from Wall Street; US equity futures recovered from earlier lows.
European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer cash open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down -0.3% after cash closed with losses of 1.0% on Tuesday.
Highlights include UK CPI, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Fed, Riksbank & BCB Policy Announcements, speakers include ECB’s Nagel, Elderson, Lane, de Guindos, Panetta, BoC’s Macklem; Fed Chair Powell, Supply from Germany.

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks were sold in another session dominated by Israel-Iran geopolitics and amid fears of the US joining Israel’s offensive.
SPX -0.84% at 5,983, NDX -1.00% at 21,719, DJI -0.70% at 42,216, RUT -1.04% at 2,102
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

US President Trump posted “U.S. Wage Growth BEST IN 60 YEARS!”, via Truth Social
AMD (AMD) and Xbox (MSFT) announced a strategic, multi-year partnership to co-engineer silicon across a portfolio of devices, including next-gen Xbox consoles.
The Fed board announces an open meeting to discuss proposed revisions to the supplementary leverage ratio standards at 19:00BST/14:00EDT on June 25th.
Atlanta Fed GDP Now (Q2 25): 3.5% (prev. 3.8%).
US plans to ease capital rule limiting banks’ Treasury trades, according to Bloomberg. Bank regulators plan to propose decreasing the Supplemental Leverage Ratio for the largest banks.
BoC Minutes: Members expected the boost in export growth to dissipate quickly as tariffs and uncertainty continued. There could be a need for further reduction in interest rates if the effects of tariffs and uncertainty continued to spread through the economy and cost pressures on inflation were contained.

TRADE/TARIFFS

Supreme Court asked to hear a challenge to Trump’s global tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
Mexican President Sheinbaum said she had a very good phone conversation with US President Trump; they agreed to work together to reach an agreement on diverse topics that worry them, according to Reuters.
White House said US President Trump will sign an additional executive order this week to keep TikTok running; the extension will last 90 days.
South Korea and the US are to hold the third round of trade talks next week, according to Maeil.
Japanese PM Ishiba agreed with US President Trump to continue ministerial-level tariff talks; Ishiba said Japan will continue to work intensely to achieve a trade deal with the US.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the softer handover from Wall Street, with stocks in the US spooked by what seemed like an imminent US involvement in Israel’s offensive against Iran. However, sentiment in APAC hours recovered as news surrounding US involvement quietened down overnight, with oil also coming off its best levels amid no signs of an American military attack. Ranges remained narrow ahead of the FOMC announcement.
ASX 200 traded subdued with sectors overall mixed, but gold miners provided headwinds for the index.
Nikkei 225 was modestly firmer and underpinned by recent losses in the JPY, while Japanese PM Ishiba agreed with US President Trump to continue ministerial-level tariff talks. Ishiba added that Japan would continue to work intensely to achieve a trade deal with the US.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded lower but to varying degrees with underperformance in Hong Kong, although with limited news from the region, and attention focused on geopolitics.
US equity futures recovered from earlier lows as markets initially anticipated a US attack on Iran, which ultimately did not occur during APAC hours. Traders looked ahead to the FOMC and SEP release, which is expected to be a placeholder meeting, with the Fed observing a wait-and-see approach.
European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer cash open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down -0.3% after cash closed with losses of 1.0% on Tuesday.

FX

DXY traded with a downward bias as participants awaited a US response against Iran, which ultimately did not happen (at the time of writing), with traders then looking ahead to the FOMC and SEP release, which is expected to be a placeholder meeting. DXY was contained within 98.63-98.84 and experienced some late selling.
EUR/USD was supported by the subdued Dollar, with newsflow for the EU on the lighter side in APAC hours. EUR/USD eventually topped 1.15 amid late USD selling and after declining from a 1.1577 peak the previous day.
GBP/USD was uneventful and overall underpinned by the Dollar, with Cable maintaining a 1.3400 status after recently giving up a 1.3600 handle. Traders looked ahead to UK inflation data at 07:00 BST on Wednesday.
USD/JPY gradually edged lower but remained above the 145.00 handle for most of the session before testing and breaching the level to the downside, whilst on the trade front, Japanese PM Ishiba agreed with US President Trump to continue ministerial-level tariff talks.
Antipodeans were modestly firmer and off earlier lows as the high-beta FX tracked the recovery in sentiment after geopolitical updates quietened down.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1761 vs exp. 7.2027 (prev. 7.1746)
Chilean Central Bank maintains benchmark interest rate at 5.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous.

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures traded essentially flat overnight amid a lack of updates on the geopolitical front as APAC markets opened, with eyes set on the upcoming FOMC. Futures saw a knee-jerk higher after Bloomberg reported US plans to ease capital rules limiting banks’ Treasury trades.
Bund futures saw sideways trade in German debt as participants focused on geopolitics overnight, while EZ traders looked ahead to several ECB speakers and the final release of the EZ CPI for May.
10yr JGB futures played catch-up to the upside across Western counterparts amid the flight-to-quality on fears of the US joining the attack on Iran.
US sold USD 23bln of 5yr TIPS; Stop through 1bps; Tail: -1.0bps (prev. 2.2bps). High Yield: 1.650% (prev. 1.702%, six-auction average 1.916%); WI 1.660%. B/C: 2.53x (prev. 2.28x, six-auction average 2.41x). Dealer: 6.55% (prev. 18.1%, six-auction average 10.6%). Direct: 18.82% (prev. 17.8%, six-auction average 18.8%). Indirect: 74.62% (prev. 64.2%, six-auction average 70.6%).
Australia sold AUD 900mln 2.75% May 2035 bond, b/c 3.44x (prev. 2.75x), average yield 4.2413% (prev. 4.2457%)

COMMODITIES

Crude futures initially saw gains on fears of the US joining the attack on Iran, with some reports suggesting it could be imminent. However, the attack ultimately did not take place, and as such, crude prices trimmed the earlier upside. The situation remained fluid, with Iran using its latest hypersonic missiles against Israel. Earlier, modest upside was seen on the much larger-than-expected draw in private inventories.
Spot gold trimmed earlier gains as markets awaited the US attack on Iran. Spot gold traded in a USD 3,378.89-3,395.79/oz parameter, within yesterday’s USD 3,365.79-3,403.08/oz band.
Copper futures traded within narrow ranges and off earlier lows as the contracts tracked global risk sentiment amid fluid geopolitics.
Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -10.133mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.32mln (exp. -0.1mln), Gasoline -0.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln.
Brent crude’s premium to Dubai at its highest since September 2023, according to sources and data cited by Reuters.
Qatar set June-loading Al-Shaheen crude term premium at USD 2.48/bbl, highest in a year, according to Reuters sources.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin traded relatively flat on either side of USD 105k ahead of the FOMC.
US Senate had enough votes for stablecoin bill passage, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC governor said they will improve the monetary policy toolbox, according to Reuters.
Chinese FX regulator said exports have maintained resilience; recent buying of onshore stocks has increased; will continue to implement proactive macro policy; will keep yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 156.3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%

DATA RECAP

Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (May) -637.6B vs. Exp. -892.9B (Prev. -115.8B, Rev. -115.6B)
Japanese Exports YY (May) -1.7% vs. Exp. -3.8% (Prev. 2.0%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY * (Apr) 6.6% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 8.4%)
Japanese Machinery Orders MM * (Apr) -9.1% vs. Exp. -9.7% (Prev. 13.0%)
Japanese Imports YY (May) -7.7% vs. Exp. -6.7% (Prev. -2.2%)
New Zealand Current Account- Annual (Q1) -24.662B vs. Exp. -24.8B (Prev. -26.401B)
New Zealand Current Account/GDP (Q1) -5.7% vs. Exp. -5.8% (Prev. -6.2%)
New Zealand Current Account – Qtrly (Q1) -2.324B vs. Exp. -2.2B (Prev. -7.037B)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

OVERVIEW: Throughout the APAC session, firing between Israel and Iran continued, Iran used its new hypersonic Fattah missiles which reportedly penetrated Israeli airspace; no updates were seen from US President Trump, US officials, or US press channels. Risk recovered from earlier lows and oil waned off highs.

US Involvement

US officials signalled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible – or if the president might resort to military action instead, according to ABC.
“Western sources: We have indications that the US will attack Iran soon”, according to Kann News.
US embassy in Jerusalem will be closed Wednesday through Friday, according to the US State Department.
US President Trump is considering a range of options when it comes to Iran, including a possible US strike on the country, according to multiple officials cited by NBC.
US President Trump said “We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now”, via Truth Social.
The Pentagon is playing its role in providing options if diplomacy with Iran fails, via US official to Al Jazeera.
US military moving fighter jets to the Middle East and continuing deployments of warplanes to bolster defences amid Israel-Iran conflict, according to Reuters citing US officials. “Pentagon moves more fighter jets to Middle East”, according to Sky News Arabia
US President Trump said “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran”, via Truth Social. Politico’s Jake Traylor citing a White House official, said that the “We” that President Trump is referring to here in the post on Truth after having complete control over Iran’s skies is in fact the United States, not Israel.
B-52 bombers are currently stationed on Diego Garcia island in the Indian Ocean, according to informed sources at the Pentagon telling Al Jazeera. “US sources talk about the flight of strategic B-52 bombers towards the region”, according to Asharq News.
US President Trump is seriously considering attacking Iran and is holding a crucial meeting with his advisers, according to Walla News/Axios citing Senior American Officials.
The Pentagon is moving more fighter jets to the Middle East and is extending the deployment of air assets already in the Middle East, Fox News reports.
The US military is preparing for the possibility that US President Trump decides to order the US Air Force to help refuel Israeli fighter jets as they carry out strikes over Iran, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Trump’s desire to handle the escalating conflict in the Middle East diplomatically is waning. Officials familiar with the ongoing discussions tell CNN Trump is growing increasingly warm to using US military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. “Trump is not eager to make any deals with the Iranians unless they’re far more forthcoming than they have been to date and are willing to make serious compromises regarding a potential nuclear deal, a White House official familiar with the ongoing discussions tells me”. “The new, more hawkish posture represents a significant shift in Trump’s thinking, though the sources said Trump remains open to a diplomatic solution – if Iran makes significant concessions”.
Before launching its attack on Iran last week, Israel provided the US with intelligence it deemed alarming: Tehran was conducting renewed research useful for a nuclear weapon, including on an explosive triggering system, via WSJ. “But U.S. officials briefed by the Israelis weren’t convinced that the information pointed to a decision by Tehran to build a bomb, according to a senior intelligence official, another U.S. official and two congressional aides familiar with the discussions. ” “Trump’s view that Iran is near to getting a bomb is shared by some other administration officials. “We believe that Iran is as close to having a nuclear weapon as one can get. They have all the components necessary to put one together,” a senior administration official said.”
Senior White House Official told Fox’s Lawrence that the meeting with National Security Advisors in the Situation Room will start “very soon”; says “US strikes inside Iran on targets… are on the table”. The Official telling him that US strikes inside Iran on targets, like the facility where Iran has its nuclear program, are on the table.
US President Trump reportedly backed down from sending senior officials to meet with the Iranians to try to reach a deal, according to US officials to CNN, being cited by Al Jazeera.
Israel Channel 12 journalists report US could join the war against Iran Tuesday night, via Faytuks News citing a telegram post.

Strikes Headlines

Iranian Revolutionary Guards said Iran’s Fattah missiles broke through Israeli defences, giving it ‘complete domination’ over Israeli airspace.
“Israel’s Channel 12: Army attacks Tehran’s refineries”, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli military said it attacked a centrifuge production site and several weapons production sites of the Iranian regime last night.
IDF Spokesman said the Iranian regime still has great capabilities that allow it to harm them, Al Jazeera reports. They attacked the IRGC headquarters and killed Iran’s Chief of Staff. “When we finish our mission, we will announce it and will not allow the existential threat against us to continue”.
Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs said “We will remove Iran’s capabilities to launch ballistic missiles, completing the mission in Iran will not take long”, via Al Hadath; “We destroyed uranium enrichment facilities in Iran. We are close to completing the mission in Iran”.
Iran has reportedly prepared for strikes on US bases if the US joins the war, according to NYT; Officials suggest that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said The battle has begun, via Al Hadath.
Iranian state media claimed that tonight (Tuesday night) will “hold a surprise the world will remember for centuries”, according to multiple reports.
“IRGC: Attacks on Israel will continue continuously and gradually”, according to Sky News Arabia.

Diplomacy Headlines

“Source familiar says there are no plans for a meeting this week between Witkoff and Araghchi”, according to an Al-Monitor journalist.
US President Trump is seriously considering attacking Iran and is holding a crucial meeting with his advisers, according to Walla News/Axios citing Senior American Officials.
US military is preparing for the possibility that US President Trump decides to order the US Air Force to help refuel Israeli fighter jets as they carry out strikes over Iran, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
The Pentagon is playing its role in providing options if diplomacy with Iran fails, via US official to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un met Russia security official Shoigu on Tuesday, according to KCNA.

3 .ASIA

3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3C CHINA

Chinese Automakers Target Using 100% Domestic Made Chips In New Vehicles

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 06:50 PM

Not only is China starting to dominate the auto market throughout the world, now they’re seeking to do it using exclusively home-grown chips, according to a new report from Nikkei.

Chinese automakers, including SAIC, Changan, BYD, Geely, Li Auto, and Great Wall, are planning to launch models using only domestically made chips, with at least two aiming for mass production as early as 2026, according to Nikkei Asia. These efforts are part of Beijing’s push for semiconductor self-reliance amid growing U.S.-China tech tensions.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is leading the initiative, urging automakers—especially state-owned ones—to assess and increase their domestic chip usage. The latest policy goal is for all automotive chips to be 100% locally developed and manufactured by 2027. “The 100% target is not mandatory,” sources said, but companies are expected to show strong efforts toward meeting it.

Nikkei writes that most Chinese automakers still rely on U.S. and foreign chips, particularly for high-end features like autonomous driving. Nvidia’s and Qualcomm’s solutions remain common in smart cockpits and AI-driven systems. “Rapidly shifting to 100% domestic supplies would be challenging,” several suppliers said.

However, domestic momentum is building. Automakers like GAC Group are working with foundries such as SMIC and CanSemi to verify homegrown chip alternatives. “Some of [our] carmaking customers such as Geely have told them they would prioritize using locally developed chips if those options existed,” said an executive with a Chinese chip developer.

Supply chain localization is accelerating across the board. One display maker said, “We are required to replace not only driver ICs with China-made chips, but also some components and materials, such as optical films… We have to switch them to Chinese suppliers by next year at the earliest.” Another noted that “it only takes six to nine months for testing and qualification for Chinese automobile makers,” compared to three to five years for European clients.

China’s EV manufacturers are also becoming more flexible by using consumer-grade chips for noncritical functions like infotainment systems. This shift reflects both localization goals and cost pressure, especially as global chipmakers like STMicroelectronics, NXP, and Infineon increase partnerships with Chinese foundries to localize production. “Chinese clients were asking the chipmaker to localize production of chips for their home market,” Infineon CEO Jochen Hanebeck told Nikkei.

The chip landscape in cars is rapidly evolving. Traditionally dominated by microcontrollers and analog chips for basic functions, modern EVs now require far more components for computing, battery management, cameras, and displays. Fortunately, many of these chips can be made with mature-node technology, which China is aggressively expanding.

“Specifically, the analog market and a large portion of the microcontroller units (MCUs) market have endured a few years of soft market growth due in part to pricing pressures on these devices that are built mostly on mature process nodes,” said TechInsights analyst Brian Matas. Still, “China has a long way to go.” In 2025, only about 17.5% of China’s $185 billion IC market will be met by local production, according to TechInsights.

SEMI projects that by 2027, China will account for nearly 40% of global mature-node chip production capacity—up from 31% in 2023—while the U.S. will account for just 5%.

END

CHINA

Purging Of Top Chinese Generals Shows Central Military Commission In “Disarray”

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 02:45 AM

General He Weidong, once the second-highest-ranking officer in China’s military and a close ally of President Xi Jinping, has been purged—three months after vanishing from public view.

His removal is now clear, following his absence from a high-profile funeral and other political signals, according to Nikkei.

He was vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the top body overseeing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and a Politburo member. His sudden downfall marks the first time a sitting CMC vice chairman has been purged since the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s.

Nikkei writes that the clearest sign of He’s fall came during the funeral of former CMC vice chairman Xu Qiliang. Footage from the event showed floral tributes from top leaders—but none from He. His absence, unedited by state media, underscored his political erasure.

This continues a broader purge within the PLA under Xi. Since the early 2010s, multiple high-ranking generals—including Guo Boxiong, Xu Caihou, and Fang Fenghui—have been arrested, imprisoned, or died under investigation. Another, Zhang Yang, committed suicide in 2017 while facing charges.

While such purges have become more common, He’s case is notable because he was an active member of Xi’s inner circle. He was promoted under Xi, seen as trusted, and attended the final session of China’s parliament just in March—his last public appearance.

The PLA has seen significant internal turmoil, especially since the Communist Party’s 20th Congress in late 2022. Several top military figures—including Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, and CMC Political Work Department head Miao Hua—have also disappeared or been removed.

These purges have left the CMC in disarray. Its membership has dropped from seven to just four, including Xi himself. Nearly half of the leadership selected in 2022 is now gone, signaling instability at the military’s highest levels, the article details.

In China, the military is controlled by the Communist Party, not the state, and survival at the top depends on absolute loyalty. He Weidong’s fall suggests that even the most senior and trusted officers are not safe in today’s political climate.

END

4.European affairs

GERMANY

Senior Citizens Moved Out Of Housing Complex In Germany To Make Way For Refugees

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The German city of Bargteheide has scrapped plans to demolish a senior citizens’ residential complex on Nelkenweg after vacating all residents, opting instead to house asylum seekers in the building.

Former residents had been told the building was uninhabitable and were forced to relocate. However, following an inspection, just five units will undergo renovation, while the remainder will be used as-is by the new arrivals.

As reported by Abendblatt, Mayor Gabriele Hettwer defended the decision, saying all cost-related issues had been resolved and that a full renovation was unnecessary. “The costs for the removal of mold and other renovation measures are manageable,” she said, noting that a preliminary building application would determine whether the entire complex could eventually be used.

The move, however, has drawn sharp criticism from members of the SPD parliamentary group, who had supported the original eviction of elderly residents on the grounds that the buildings were unfit for habitation. “I have seen for myself what a bad condition the buildings are in,” said SPD council member Andreas Bäuerle. His colleague Jörg Rehder added, “The decision has an unpleasant taste.”

🇩🇪 Senior citizens living in an apartment complex in the German town of Bargteheide were told to leave their homes because the building was to be demolished.

Now, after they've all moved out, it transpires the building won't be demolished after all.

Instead, asylum seekers are… pic.twitter.com/thodsQiWpt
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 15, 2025

He pointed out that while the city directly financed the relocations of elderly tenants, it now appeared eager to move refugees into the same housing it had deemed unsuitable.

CDU council member Sven Meding dismissed the SPD’s concerns as political posturing. “I sometimes wonder if it’s election campaign again. Should we accommodate the refugees in tents?” he asked. “The apartments on Nelkenweg are well habitable.”

It would appear that no one on the municipal council had an issue with the fact that the elderly residents were not welcomed to return to their homes following the building’s inspection, and it would now hold asylum seekers.

Many former residents had expressed their desire to remain in their homes.

“I feel very comfortable here and have lived here for 20 years,” senior citizen Frieda Miller told SHZ previously. “I’m good here, here I have my home, my flowers, a nice apartment that I can pay for.”

“The apartment is really well designed, everything can be reached from here, and there is also a lot of nature. I would like to stay here,” added fellow resident Dagmar Pardubitzki.

Mayor Hettwer stated that the use of the complex is temporary but refused to give a timeframe. She added that the city was deliberately creating more refugee housing than currently needed, to prepare for potential increases in migration. “The developments are currently declining because the regulations at the borders are stricter,” she said. “But it is like looking into a crystal ball to estimate the flows of the day after tomorrow.”

Although only 40 additional places were technically required, the Nelkenweg complex provides 104. According to the mayor, this allows the city to better absorb any unexpected influxes.

Supporters of the plan also point to challenges with other housing providers, who resist open-ended rental agreements and frequently let leases expire to retain flexibility over their properties. In contrast, the Nelkenweg site offers immediate and potential long-term availability.

The city council ultimately voted in favor of the measure, with support from the CDU, Greens, and WfB. The SPD cast the only three votes against.

Relocation or eviction of elderly tenants to make room for migrants is not new across Germany. In 2023, Remix News reported how a Berlin nursing home had closed its doors to its residents after signing a new contract to accommodate refugees.

Similarly, in Lörrach, the city’s municipal housing association evicted dozens of long-term residents , many of them senior citizens, to accommodate migrants.

When the public protested against the decision, the city’s council published a statement claiming that demonstrations were led by right-wing extremists and called for a “fight against the right.”

Read more here…

END

SLOVAKIA

Slovak PM Fico Questions NATO Membership, Sparks Backlash Over Call For Neutrality

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has sparked a political debate after publicly suggesting that Slovakia might benefit from adopting a neutral stance in foreign policy — an idea that would mean withdrawal from the NATO alliance.

Speaking during a visit to the Ministry of Economy, Fico asked, “Wouldn’t Slovakia’s neutrality be good in this crazy period? I put this question very officially, very clearly.”

Though he admitted the decision was not in his hands, he added, “What are we all dragged into? What kind of war are you talking about? Who on earth wants to fight with whom? I still don’t know.”

As reported by Denník Postoj, the Slovak premier also denounced plans by the European Union to increase defense spending, criticizing what he called the “senseless times of armaments” and comparing weapons manufacturers to pharmaceutical firms profiting during the COVID-19 pandemic. “How do you want to spend the €800 billion that the Union is talking about? That’s impossible,” he said.

His remarks sparked outrage among his political opposition.

Michal Šimečka, leader of Progressive Slovakia (PS), described Fico’s remarks as “absolutely scandalous,” saying, “He is questioning our entire foreign policy anchorage, breaking our relations with key partners and throwing us to Putin.”

Karol Galek of the center-right Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, pointed to Ukraine’s experience as a warning, noting that its neutrality was supposedly guaranteed by Russia — until it was invaded. “If there is a war in our country, there is only a threat from Russia,” Galek said, adding that neutrality would place the full financial burden of national defense on Slovakia.

“The Baltics and Poland are already at 5 percent [in defense spending] because they are aware that the threat is already behind their gates. The threat is Russia,” added Milan Majerský of the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH), who warned neutrality would result in an overwhelming and unsustainable hike in Slovakia’s defense budget.

Slovak President Peter Pellegrini also responded to Fico’s remarks. “I respect his opinion. Maybe he really thinks that Slovakia should be a neutral country, but in this way, a general discussion can be provoked, which can again result in some kind of petition action,” he said.

“A statesman can never question the security of the state. Neutrality does not mean that you are friends with everyone around you and no one can hurt you, but that you have to guarantee everything yourself,” he warned.

The Slovak president did, however, acknowledge the political nature of Fico’s comments, which he suggested have been made to spark a political discussion.

“I consider it a provocative idea, for which the prime minister is an expert – to overwhelm the public space with a topic that we will all discuss, but nothing will come of it anyway,” Pellegrini said. “At the moment, it is unnecessary and risky.”

Read more here…

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL IRAN/USA

Iran Prepares To Hit US Regional Bases With Missiles If Trump Joins The War

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 04:37 PM

Update(1637ET): There’s widespread reporting that President Trump is mulling direct US military assistance to Israel as it battles Iran, which would mean America getting sucked into another major war in the Middle East. Tehran in response has warned that it is prepared to hit US bases in the region if Trump pulls the trigger:

Iran has prepared missiles and other military equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East should the United States join Israel’s war against the country, according to American officials who have reviewed intelligence reports.

The United States has sent about three dozen refueling aircraft to Europe that could be used to assist fighter jets protecting American bases or that would be used to extend the range of bombers involved in any possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Fears of a wider war are growing among American officials as Israel presses the White House to intervene in its conflict with Iran. If the United States joins the Israeli campaign and strikes Fordo, a key Iranian nuclear facility, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia will almost certainly resume striking ships in the Red Sea, the officials said. They added that pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria would probably try to attack U.S. bases there.

And more: “Other officials said that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a tactic meant to pin American warships in the Persian Gulf,” NYT writes.

Meanwhile, the exiled US-backed Iranian monarchy is urgently calling for Iranians to rise up in the streets against the Ayatollah, in a massive development. Reza Pahlavi is issuing these statements from US soil, where the family has long resided…

NEW: Exiled crown prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi says the Islamic Republic has "come to an end," says what has begun is irreversible.

Pahlavi ripped Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for hiding like a "scared mouse."

"The Islamic Republic has come to an end and is falling. What has… pic.twitter.com/vJHBMZAehx
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 17, 2025

Trump’s national security council meeting in the WH Situation Room has ended. Will tonight bring US warplanes and pilots directly into the conflict – and American troops at regional bases into harm’s way?

US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are on the table, two senior White House officials tell Fox News

Axios reviews of the latest:

The White House has discussed the idea of meeting directly with the Iranians this week, but Trump said that would “depend what happens when I get back” to Washington.
Two Israeli officials told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli defense establishment continue to believe the Trump is likely to enter the war in the coming days to bomb Iran’s underground enrichment facility.
So far the U.S. has helped Israel defend itself from incoming missiles, but declined to take part in offensive operations.

* * *

Update(1232ET): President Trump has very quickly followed up with even more bellicose and alarming statements directly threatening Iran, repeatedly using ‘we’ – as if the United States military is already directly involved in the ratcheting war. He said in the latest:

We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Are we witnessing the start of another regime change war in the Middle East – and with no Congressional input or authorization whatsoever?

Or is this all one big game of [nuclear] chicken, where the hope is that Iran will suddenly raise the white flag? Trump is now suggesting that Israel and the US could go all in until there’s nothing short of “unconditional surrender!“…

The escalatory and jingoistic rhetoric could also be because Washington is certainly not used to seeing Israeli cities get pummeled by Iranian hypersonic and ballistic missiles.

Meanwhile, when did Merz become the US State Dept?

GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ: THE UNITED STATES WILL DECIDE TODAY WHETHER OR
NOT TO JOIN THE IRAN CONFLICT… DECISION DEPENDS ON WHETHER IRAN
NEGOTIATES

* * *

Update(1215): While Trump is of course known for verbally shooting from the hip, and is often loose or imprecise with his terms, this is certainly cause for alarm, amid speculation that the US is quickly deepening its involvement in the Israel-Iran war, and yet with no Congressional war authorization or debate.

TRUMP SAYS ‘WE‘ NOW HAVE ‘TOTAL CONTROL’ OF SKIES OVER IRAN

Is this confirmation of Pentagon direct involvement at this point? Or was this just loosely referring to Israel as an ally?

Whatever the case, this doesn’t bode well in terms of America’s possible future direct entry, as Trump has vowed to never allow Iran to have nuclear weapons.

* * *

As tensions soar and Americans anxiously contemplate the possibility of yet another major US war in the Middle East, the Trump administration has been in contact with the Iranian government, discussing a possible meeting this week between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff, Axios reports, citing “four sources briefed on the issue.”

The outlet also says Trump officials reassured Middle East allies that the administration doesn’t plan to join the war unless Americans are targeted — a clear red line that incentivizes Israel to find a way to drag Iran across it, or to fabricate an incident altogether, much as Israel did in 1954’s famed “Lavon Affair” and perhaps its 1967 attack on the USS Liberty. An Arab diplomat in deep contact with Iran says the red line is already very much in mind in Tehran: “The Iranians are very careful so far not to do anything that can push the U.S. to get involved.”

Following those reports, Iran over Monday night pared back the pace of its heavy bombardment of Israel, after consecutive nights of deadly, damaging strikes demonstrating the power of Iran’s hypersonic missiles. In a new twist, however, Iran hit Israel with a daylight barrage on Tuesday morning — albeit one that was reportedly modest in volume, perhaps only 20 missiles. Of course, there’s nothing modest about it if you happen to be in one of the impact areas:

One of several footages, triangulation of which have allowed to suggest that IDF's Intel gathering unit 8200 was hit in Herzliya, outside Tel Aviv: pic.twitter.com/R7UhYFxmN1
— Bashkarma🇺🇸🌏🇷🇺 (@Karmabash) June 17, 2025

Earlier on Monday, Israel struck various targets in Iran, including the state-run television network IRIB in mid-broadcast (though it quickly resumed broadcasting with the same host). The IDF also claimed it killed a highly senior Iranian general who himself succeeded another general assassinated in Israel’s opening of the war.

The Axios reports come in stark contrast to a stream of bellicose rhetoric emanating from Trump, along with potentially ominous moves of US military assets. On Monday, Trump used social media to say that “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Also yesterday, Fox News reported that the USS Nimitz-led aircraft carrier group was steaming toward the Middle East from the South China Sea, where it will join the already on-station USS Carl Vinson strike group. At the same time, a large number of military refueling aircraft were being deployed to Europe.

Even if the reports of US diplomatic outreach are true, from Iran’s perspective, little or nothing the Trump administration says can be trusted, and even ostensibly peaceful overtures must be evaluated as a potential tactic to set up a surprise US strike. After all, Israel’s initiation of a war on Iran came two days before American and Iranian delegations were scheduled to meet in Oman for a sixth round of discussions pursuant to a new deal about Iran’s nuclear program. Since Israel’s attack, Trump has repeatedly stated that he knew about it in advance, saying for example that “We were well-informed about everything,” and “I always knew the date.”

Here’s what one official told Axios about the pursuit of a new meeting:

“A meeting with the Iranians this week is under consideration…They do want to talk. But what we don’t know is, have they been brought to their knees fully so that they realize that in order to have a country, they have to talk? And assuming they get there, is there any degree of [uranium] enrichment you would allow them to have?”

The suggestion that Iran is anywhere close to being “on its knees” seems fanciful, considering Iran has launched multiple missile barrages, the effects of which have significantly exceeded expectations. Two dozen Israelis have been killed and at least 400 injured, with the country also enduring major hits to government buildings, apartment towers and power plants. The starring role in those barrages has been played by Iran’s highly advanced hypersonic missiles — a weapon that neither Israel nor even the United States has in its arsenal:

JUST IN: Israeli Air Force strikes the studio of Iranian state run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) in Tehran while they were on live air.

The newscaster was in the middle of a show when the building was hit. pic.twitter.com/GvVE0xRAT8
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 16, 2025

The unnamed official’s rhetorical question about whether there’s “any amount of enrichment” the US would allow may offer a glimmer of hope for an end to the Israel-initiated war. Iran sees enrichment as a right it possesses as a sovereign state, and has repeatedly said an outright ban on enrichment is completely out of the question. Iran has long been under a religious order, or “fatwa,” forbidding the development of any weapon of mass destruction, and the country has long assured the world that it has no intention of building a nuclear weapon — an assurance the US intelligence community validated in 2007 and has repeatedly re-confirmed since then — most recently, just this March. Meanwhile, anti-Iran hawks have been warning of an imminent Iranian nuclear bomb for more than three decades:

**In this major** *New York Times* article from 30 years ago, one senior official said Iran’s “intensive effort” put them on pace to have all the requisite atomic bomb components” in two years”

The seeds of today’s crisis were sown in May 2018, when Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal that had been negotiated between Iran and various Western governments and signed in 2015. Under that deal, Iran agreed to a wide array of safeguards. They included eliminating its medium-enriched uranium, reducing its low-enriched uranium inventory by 98%, capping future enrichment at 3.67%, slashing its number of centrifuges, submitting to enhanced external monitoring and rendering its heavy-water reactor unusable by pouring concrete in it. At the time of Trump’s withdrawal, Iran was in full compliance, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. In response to the re-imposition of US sanctions, Iran began straying from the deal’s terms, seemingly pushing the only lever it had to bring the deal back and get out from under sanctions that have sapped Iran’s economy and inflicted a cruel toll on innocent Iranian citizens.

The 2015 deal was so thorough that Trump’s pursuit of a new agreement puts him in the awkward position of finding a way to differentiate it from the one he repeatedly railed against on the 2016 campaign trail, and again as he killed it. Iran hawks have been pushing for a deal that bans nuclear enrichment altogether. Some may take that position out of sincere concern, but the most powerful hawks in Israel and America certainly take it with full knowledge that Iran will never accept it, helping pave the way for the US-led war they’ve long yearned for.

Indeed, soon after Israel’s war on Iran began, Israel and its US-based collaborators began pressing Trump to commit the American military to the fight — in defiance of his campaign promises to end the era of endless US wars. Trump needn’t burden himself with that decision: The US Constitution vests the power to initiate war with Congress.

Another video of an Iranian Hypersonic missile hitting Israel.

These missiles cannot be stopped.

By anything. pic.twitter.com/qkbmtRN5UP
— ADAM (@AdameMedia) June 15, 2025

ISRAEL IRAN

JERUSALEM POST

IDF begins conducting strikes in Tehran following evacuation warning

The military later announced it had begun conducting strikes in the area.

Israeli Air Force fighter jets seen attacking Iranian nuclear targets, June 15, 2025(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 18, 2025 01:54Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 04:43

An evacuation has been issued to the people of Tehran by the IDF following multiple Iranian attacks on Tuesday night.

“Dear citizens, for your safety and health, we ask that you immediately leave the designated area in District 18 of Tehran,” the IDF Farsi spokesperson wrote on X/Twitter.

x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1935105531246788793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1935105531246788793%7Ctwgr%5E9815a0956b2ba1d6f15c2929bedd55964c16b394%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&re

The military later announced it had begun conducting strikes in the area.

Iranian reports indicated that the IDF was targeting a missile manufacturing facility located in Hojir, near Tehran.

According to reports, the IDF had already bombed the facility in Hojir last October.

Early Wednesday morning, Iranian media also reported that Israel was striking Imam Hossein University in eastern Tehran, which has been linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from the Golan Heights, June 18, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Gal Twig TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Iran launched multiple missile barrages at Israel

Multiple barrages of missiles were launched from Iran toward central and northern Israel Tuesday overnight.

Over both barrages, an estimated 30 missiles were launched.

No casualties or injuries have been reported, and MDA is currently assisting several people who injured themselves on their way to protected areas.

This is a developing story.

END

ISRAEL IRAN

Sirens sound across Israel following Iranian attack, no injures reported

Multiple fires have broken out due to shrapnel hitting residential buildings in northern and central Israel.

Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from the Golan Heights, June 18, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Gal Twig TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)BySHIR PERETSJUNE 18, 2025 01:11Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 03:10

A barrage of missiles launched from Iran led to sirens across central and northern Israel on Tuesday night.

Following reports of falls and shrapnel, Magen David Adom teams searched five locations across the country where reports were received.

Multiple fires have broken out due to shrapnel hitting residential buildings in northern and central Israel.

No casualties or injuries have been reported, and MDA is currently assisting several people who injured themselves on their way to protected areas.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3913157&url=www.jpost.comView of Iranian ballistic missiles from the West Bank (Credit: Section 27a Copyright Act)

An additional barrage was detected shortly after

A short while later, an additional barrage was detected heading toward central Israel and the West Bank.

Over both barrages, an estimated 30 missiles were launched.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shared a photo on X/Twitter with the caption “the battle begins.”

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-858114

The IDF later issued an evacuation warning for the residents of Tehran, warning it would begin conducting strikes in the 18th district, near Mehrabad Airport.

The military later announced it had begun conducting strikes in the area.

This is a developing story.

END

Iran fires pair of overnight missile barrages at Israel; Khamenei: ‘The battle begins’

No injuries reported in attacks; Iranian supreme leader threatens to ‘show the Zionists no mercy’ as IDF announces fresh wave of airstrikes in Tehran after issuing evacuation order

By ToI StaffToday, 3:21 amUpdated at 5:23 am

An Iranian missile attack sparks a fire in a parking lot in central Israel early on June 18, 2025 (X screenshot, used in accordance with clause 27a of the copyright law)

Iran fired a pair of ballistic missile barrages at Israel early Wednesday, as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “the battle begins” and called to show “no mercy” toward Israelis.

The first salvo began to trigger sirens across a large swath of Israel shortly after 12:40 a.m., and included some 15 projectiles. The next barrage of approximately 10 rockets began around 40 minutes later and triggered alerts in central Israeli communities and a number of West Bank settlements.

Several minutes before the attacks, the Israel Defense Forces issued alerts warning residents of the missile fire and instructing them to seek shelter. Following each salvo, the IDF informed Israelis it was now safe to leave the bomb shelters.

There were no reports of injuries in the successive attacks, which sparked a fire at a parking lot in central Israel, damaging numerous cars.

It was not immediately clear if the blaze was the result of a direct impact or caused by debris from an interception.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later claimed to have used hypersonic missiles.

“The 11th wave of the proud Operation Honest Promise 3 using Fattah-1 missiles” was carried out, the IRGC said in a statement carried by state television, claiming that Iranian forces “have gained complete control over the skies of the occupied territories.”

Anti-missile interceptors are seen in the sky above northern Israel amid an Iranian ballistic missile attack, June 18, 2025. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)

Warning sirens were also activated overnight around the Dead Sea due to a suspected drone infiltration. The IDF shortly later said “the incident is over,” without elaborating.

The overnight missile launches followed several smaller salvos throughout Tuesday, with the IDF saying it believed the attacks were decreasing in scope as Iran’s capabilities had been degraded by Israeli strikes.

“We must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime,” Khamenei wrote on his English-language X account after the second missile barrage early Wednesday. “We will show the Zionists no mercy.”

He issued a similar tweet in Hebrew as well as a Shia-themed post in Farsi stating “the battle begins” and claiming a return to Khaybar, referring to a town whose Jewish inhabitants were conquered by Muslim forces in the 7th century.

The post featured an image of a man holding a sword entering a castle-like gate, with fiery streaks in the sky overhead.

Meanwhile, the IDF issued an evacuation Wednesday for residents of District 18 in Tehran to leave the area, saying that Israel was going to take action in the area targeting military infrastructure.

Shortly later, the military announced that the Israeli Air Force had embarked on a new wave of strikes in the Iranian capital, without immediately providing further details.

Along with the strikes in Tehran, Iranian news websites reported explosions at the Khojir missile production facility near the capital and in the city of Karaj, where Israel has previously targeted a centrifuge factory.

People stand on a rooftop as smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 17, 2025. (Atta Kenare/AFP)

Now in its sixth day, Israel set out on the operation in Iran with the objective of removing the “existential threat” of the Iranian nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities.

Israel says its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites, and ballistic missile program is necessary to prevent its longtime adversary from getting any closer to building atomic weapons. At the beginning of the campaign on Friday, it said the situation had become an immediate existential threat to the Jewish state.

Iran has retaliated by launching more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 wounded.

Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 224 people, according to Iranian officials.

Agencies contributed to this report.

ISRAEL IRAN

IAF strikes Iranian ballistic missile sites, shifting focus from nuclear targets

The target bank in the overnight strikes was primarily focused on missile production and launchers, but also included nuclear centrifuge production sites.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3913182&url=https://www.jpost.com/IAF fighter jets take off to conduct strikes on Iran, June 18, 2025. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByYONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 18, 2025 07:48Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 08:33

In a large-scale overnight operation, the IAF struck a centrifuge production facility and multiple weapons manufacturing sites in the Tehran area, the IDF announced on Wednesday.

More than 50 IAF jets participated in the strikes on around 20 targets, which were guided by intelligence from the IDF Intelligence Directorate.

The majority of the targets struck were facilities producing components and raw materials for surface-to-surface missiles, which the Iranian regime has launched at Israel in the past. Sites involved in the production of surface-to-air missile systems were also hit.

A facility used to produce centrifuges, which the military said were intended to accelerate uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons development, was also struck. The IDF emphasized that civilian nuclear programs do not require enrichment at such levels.

The military said the operation was part of its ongoing campaign to disrupt the Iranian regime’s nuclear weapons development and missile production capabilities.

While Israel hasn’t given up on striking Iranian nuclear sites and targets, this signals a shift in the IDF’s priority to ballistic missile targets that pose a direct threat to Israel.

This is the first time that more IAF aircraft were used than the number of targets hit in Iran. This could also indicate that the IDF has fewer targets to strike but is trying to destroy them more completely.

Before the strike, the IDF issued an evacuation warning for the residents of Tehran, which came after barrages of Iranian missiles towards Israel.

“Dear citizens, for your safety and health, we ask that you immediately leave the designated area in District 18 of Tehran,” the IDF Farsi spokesperson wrote on X/Twitter.

Regarding the missiles launched at Israel, an estimated 30 missiles were launched.

No casualties or injuries have been reported, and MDA is currently assisting several people who injured themselves on their way to protected areas.

END

ISRAEL IRAN

Airforce hits centrifuge production sites used to expand existing enrichment and solely for developing nuclear weapons::

(IsraelTimes)

Air force jets hit centrifuge production site in Tehran, weapons factories in overnight Iran strikes

Over 50 jets took part in overnight operations that included strikes on an Iranian centrifuge production site and several weapon-production facilities, the military says.

The centrifuge production site in Tehran was used by Iran to expand the scope and rate of its uranium enrichment for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons, the IDF says.

The military says that the weapon-production factories hit included a site for the production of raw materials and components for the assembly of the surface-to-surface missiles that the Iranian regime has been firing at Israel, as well as facilities for making systems and components for surface-to-air missiles designed to hit aircraft.

The IDF releases footage of jets taking off for the operations.

צה"ל תקף הלילה אתר ייצור צנטריפוגות ומספר אתרי ייצור אמצעי לחימה של המשטר האיראני

יותר מ-50 מטוסי קרב של חיל האוויר, בהכוונה מודיעינית מדויקת של אגף המודיעין, השלימו בשעות האחרונות סדרת תקיפות של מטרות צבאיות במרחב טהראן.

במסגרת המאמץ הנרחב לפגוע בתכנית לפיתוח הנשק הגרעיני… pic.twitter.com/RNAAvSChgl
— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) June 18, 2025

end

WATCH: IAF destroys Iran attack helicopters, Emad missile launchers

Approximately 25 fighter jets struck over 40 missile infrastructure components, including missile storage sites and military operatives of the Iranian Regime.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3913365&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF strikes five Iranian attack helicopters in Kermanshah, Iran, June 18, 2025 (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 18, 2025 14:12

Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck five Iranian AH-1 attack helicopters at an airbase in the Kermanshah region of western Iran, the IDF said Wednesday.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-858170

Also on Wednesday, IAF fighter jets, with the direction of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, completed a series of strikes on military targets in western Iran.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3913399&url=www.jpost.comIAF aircraft strikes Iranian Emad missile launchers in Western Iran, June 18, 2025. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)Approximately 25 fighter jets struck over 40 missile infrastructure components directed toward the State of Israel, including missile storage sites and military operatives of the Iranian Regime.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3913404&url=www.jpost.comIAF aircraft strikes military operatives at an Iranian missile launching site, June 18, 2025. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)Additionally, overnight, IAF fighter jets struck a loaded and “Emad” missile launcher, ready to launch toward Israeli civilians. See more on

END

Iran’s Supreme Leader says any US strikes on Iran will have serious consequences

In his first remarks since Friday, when he delivered a speech broadcast on state media after Israel began bombarding Iran, Khamenei said peace or war could not be imposed on the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, March 8, 2025(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)ByREUTERSJUNE 18, 2025 13:49Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 13:58

Iran‘s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement read by a television presenter on Wednesday that his country will not accept US President Donald Trump’s call for an unconditional surrender.

In his first remarks since Friday, when he delivered a speech broadcast on state media after Israel began bombarding Iran, Khamenei said peace or war could not be imposed on the Islamic Republic.

“Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender,” he said.

“The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.”

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei looks on, in a televised message following the Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS) — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei looks on, in a televised message following the Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)

Operation Rising Lion

Thousands of people were fleeing Tehran on Wednesday after Israeli warplanes bombed the city overnight, and a source said Trump was considering options that include joining Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear sites.

Israel’s military said 50 Israeli jets had struck around 20 targets in Tehran overnight, including sites producing raw materials, components and manufacturing systems for missiles.

A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump and his team were considering a number of options, which included joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

Iran had conveyed to Washington that it would retaliate against the United States for any direct participation, its ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, said. He said he already saw the US as “complicit in what Israel is doing.”

END

TIMES OF ISRAEL

(same story as above)

Beleaguered Khamenei warns of ‘irreparable consequences’ for US if it strikes

In written remarks read aloud by TV presenter, supreme leader vows defiance in face of Trump’s demand for ‘unconditional surrender’ and threat that US could kill him

By AgenciesToday, 2:38 pm

This photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, shows Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a televised speech, under a portrait of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, Friday, June 13, 2025. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement read by a television presenter on Wednesday that his country will not accept US President Donald Trump’s call for an unconditional surrender.

In his first remarks outside of social media posts since Friday, when he delivered a speech broadcast on state media after Israel began bombarding Iran, Khamenei said peace or war could not be imposed on the Islamic Republic.

“Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender,” read the statement, which was billed as Khamenei’s “televised message to the Iranian nation.”

“The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,” it said.

Israel on Friday launched a campaign of airstrikes in Iran to decimate the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which Jerusalem characterized as an imminent, existential threat. Iran has responded with deadly barrages of ballistic missiles civilian population centers and military targets in Israel.

The US says it has so far only taken indirect actions in the conflict, including helping to shoot down missiles fired toward Israel, but it’s begun to bolster its forces in the region, with Trump reportedly weighing taking a direct role in Israel’s strikes.

Trump called Tuesday for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” and said Washington knows the exact whereabouts of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but was holding off on assassinating him “for now.”

US President Donald Trump attends a working session during the Group of Seven (G7) Summit at the Pomeroy Kananaskis Mountain Lodge in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada on June 16, 2025. (Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP)

Earlier Wednesday, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN in Geneva Ali Bahreini called Trump’s remarks “completely unwarranted and very hostile. We cannot ignore them. We are vigilant about what Trump is saying. We will put it in our calculations and assessments.”

Speaking about Israeli strikes, he said Iran was “resolute” in responding, and would continue to do so “very, very, very seriously and strongly,” adding: “Nobody should expect Iran to show any kind of restraint.”

Speaking to the Human Rights Council, Bahreini said the Israeli attacks represented an act of “war against humanity” and criticized countries for not condemning them.

“We are hearing almost nothing from those self-proclaimed champions of human rights,” he said, calling on countries to condemn acts that he said exposed people to the risk of hazardous leaks.

This handout picture released by the Iranian Red Crescent on June 17, 2025, shows members of rescue teams searching the debris inside a building in Tehran targeted by Israeli strikes. (Iranian Red Crescent / AFP)

“The deliberate targeting of Iran’s nuclear facilities not only constitutes a grave violation of international law and UN Charter but also risks [exposure] of all people in our neighborhood to possible hazardous leak. This is not an act of war against our country, it is war against humanity,” said Bahreini.

The UN’s nuclear watchdog group, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has confirmed Israeli strikes on both the Natanz uranium enrichment plant and nuclear facilities in Isfahan, but said there have been no increases in radiation in the surrounding areas — though it warned there was a risk of contamination inside Natanz.

Iran, which has vowed to destroy the Jewish state, insists that its nuclear program is peaceful; however, it has been enriching uranium to levels that have no peaceful application, has obstructed international inspectors from checking its nuclear facilities, and has greatly expanded its ballistic missile capabilities.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

IRAN/ISRAEL/IAEA

IAEA confirms IDF hits at Karaj, Tehran uranium enrichment sites

Striking such a major centrifuge manufacturing site in 2021 and again now could severely set back Iran’s program for enriching uranium.

IAEA board and chief Rafael Grossi hold exceptional meeting about Israel’s strikes on Iran, June 16, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/ELISABETH MANDL)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJUNE 18, 2025 12:40Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 13:19

The International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday posted on X/Twitter that it “has information that two centrifuge production facilities in Iran, the TESA Karaj workshop and the Tehran Research Center, were hit. Both sites were previously under IAEA monitoring and verification as part of the JCPOA,” referring to the 2015 nuclear deal.

According to the IAEA, “At the Tehran site, one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested. At Karaj, two buildings were destroyed where different centrifuge components were manufactured. “

Previously, the IDF had said it had struck dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, including additional uranium enrichment sites, overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is not the first time Israel has attacked the Karaj nuclear site.

Heavy traffic on the Karaj-Chalus road as vehicles move westwards in a direction leading out of Tehran, Iran, as Israel and Iran continue to attack each other, in this screen grab obtained from social media video released June 16, 2025. (credit: SOCIAL MEDIA/REUTERS)

Destroying Iran’s nuclear site

In June 2021, Iran accused the Mossad of destroying its nuclear facility at Karaj, using a drone which was launched from within Iran from about 10 miles away.

Although Iran never came completely clean about what was damaged, the IAEA eventually confirmed that it was a site that it had been monitoring until it was destroyed.

Iran blocked the IAEA from visiting the site for over six months after it was struck.

During the time in which Iran blocked access to hearing about its specific losses, the Jerusalem Post reported on a 2017 Institute for Science and International Security report by founder and director David Alrbight and former agency official Olli Heinonen about the site.

Drawing attention to the report in 2021, Albright told The Jerusalem Post to review Figure 3 of the report.

An explanatory note for Figure 3 said that in 2011, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran revealed the location of one of Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing sites, near the city of Karaj, referred to as the TABA site. The note continues that the components are reportedly “made in the three workshops marked in the image on the right.”

The incident was at this centrifuge manufacturing site, regardless of how Iran tried to label the site as less significant.

Striking such a major centrifuge manufacturing site in 2021 and again now could severely set back Iran’s program for enriching uranium.

Later, in the institute’s report, it warned that Iran, “may have declared only those [sites] dedicated to current manufacturing of centrifuges. Iran declared centrifuge manufacturing activities at the TABA centrifuge production site near Karaj (see figure 3). The operational status and output of this facility is not reported in the IAEA reports on Iran.”

“Such flow forming and filament winding machines are used in military industries that are present in Iran, and Iran has acquired many of them. Thus, a key question is whether Iran is secretly making centrifuge rotor tubes and bellows at unknown locations, in violation of the JCPOA, and if it takes place, what is the probability that it goes without detection,” said the report.

Some of what may be at the site that was hit may have been declared to the IAEA and some may not have been.

IRAN

he is ready for form a democratic government for the people of Iran!

(JerusalemPost)

Iran’s Reza Pahlavi says 100-day transition plan in place if Khamenei falls

Pahlavi also directed his message to the military, police, and state workers, many of whom he said have contacted him in recent days.

Reza Pahlavi, activist, advocate and oldest son of the last Shah of Iran, speaks at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda, California, on October 22, 2024.(photo credit: PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 18, 2025 06:04Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 11:55

Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last Shah (King) of Iran and Crown Prince, said that plans are in place for a 100-day transitional period if the Islamic Republic regime falls in war with Israel.

In a Tuesday video statement in Farsi, Pahlavi sought to reassure Iranians that opposition forces have a plan for the country’s future.

“Iran will not descend into civil war or instability,” he said. “We are prepared for the first hundred days after the fall, for the transitional period, and for the establishment of a national and democratic government – by the Iranian people and for the Iranian people.”

Pahlavi also directed part of his message to the military, police, and state workers, many of whom he said have contacted him in recent days.

“Do not stand against the Iranian people for the sake of a regime whose fall has begun and is inevitable,” he said. “By standing with the people, you can save your lives…and take part in building the future of Iran.”

Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince and son of the late Mohammad Reza Shah of Iran, attending the Holocaust Remembrance Ceremony 2023 in Yad Vashem. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

Pahlavi: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a frightened rat

“The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing,” Pahlavi declared. “Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation.”

The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing. What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up; the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon. pic.twitter.com/qrbnDmf8SX
— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 17, 2025

In his address, the crown prince said the fall of the regime was “irreversible,” describing the moment as a historic turning point for the Iranian people.

“The future is bright, and together, we will pass through this sharp turn in history,” he said. “In these difficult days, my heart is with all the defenseless citizens who have been harmed and have fallen victim to Khamenei’s warmongering and delusions.”

Pahlavi, who has long advocated for a secular, democratic Iran, framed the regime’s downfall as both imminent and necessary. He described the Islamic Republic as a system that has waged a “46-year war against the Iranian nation” and emphasized that its security and repression apparatus was crumbling.

“All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all,” he said.

The prince called on citizens across the country – from Bandar Abbas to Shiraz, and Tabriz to Zahedan – to take to the streets and demand change.

‘Now is the time to rise’

“Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran,” he said. “Let us all come forward…and bring about the end of this regime.

He closed the address with a message of unity and hope: “A free and flourishing Iran lies ahead of us. May we be together soon. Long live Iran! Long live the Iranian nation!”

Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, lives in exile in the United States. While he holds no official political role, he remains a prominent figure among segments of the Iranian opposition abroad and increasingly among younger Iranians seeking systemic change

end

IRAN/OPINION

Geopol: Iran Will Fall and China Won’t Catch Her

by VBL

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 12:06

Iran Will Fall, China Won’t (Can’t?) Catch Her

Authored for GoldFix, by Mavs and VBL

This is a 2-part analysis. In the first part, we do a deep dive into the Chinese view on how committed they are to Iran from a long-term, structural, and cultural point of view. The second part (later this week) will relate to how these can manifest in markets.

Contents (2200 words)

Bottom Line/ Introduction
Too Modern for Its Politics
The Shah’s Ghost
The Worst of Both Worlds
China Won’t Catch this Falling Ally

Bottom Line/ Introduction:

Iran is not a viable partner for China (or anyone for that matter) for long-term strategic investment, as any major change to its political order is likely to be disruptive and possibly violent.

Iran’s current regime is fundamentally unstable and disconnected from the country’s social and economic realities. Iran faces deep internal dissent, a paralyzed hybrid political system, and a lack of strategic coherence. Its persistent anti-American stance is seen as outdated and unconvincing, especially to its educated population.

The regime’s structure—a mix of theocracy and elected government—creates paralysis rather than strength, drawing comparisons to the collapsing Qing Dynasty in early 20th-century China. China knows this and to the extent they can, will distance themselves form Iran if things deteriorate further there.

Iran’s situation is profoundly problematic. Frankly speaking, at this stage, any cooperation agreement reached with Iran resembles signing a treaty with the Qing Dynasty on the eve of the 1911 Revolution.

First, knowing how China learns the lessons of its own history says much about how it perceives Iran’s path. Second, knowing the inherent contradciton in Iran’s hybridized attempt to have things “both ways” shows why their current sitauton will fail. Putting these two concepts together serves to predict how China will behave when Iran’s regime actually falls

2. The Last Fragile Regime in the Middle East

Iran stands out among its neighbors as the only state likely to face severe political upheaval in the near future. While Persia as a nation will persist, the Islamic Republic appears increasingly unsustainable. It exhibits signs of deep dysfunction—incapable of protecting key figures, supporting allies, or maintaining coherent foreign policy. This instability stems not from poverty and systemic incoherence.

Among the Middle Eastern nations, Iran is the only country likely to experience disruptive upheaval in the foreseeable future. Persia, the ancient civilization, will endure as a nation. However, the longevity of the Islamic Republic of Iran is highly uncertain. In recent years, Iran has exhibited glaring inconsistencies – vacillating policies, bluster masking weakness, absurd flag-raising ceremonies – demonstrating it is thoroughly penetrated. The extent of this infiltration borders on state dysfunction:

Domestically: It cannot protect its own state guests or top scientists.
Internationally: It cannot reliably support its allies or defend its sphere of influence. No rational nation should view such a regime as a viable partner. A regime can be poor or weak, but it absolutely cannot be dysfunctional. A dysfunctional state is like a paralyzed patient – devoid of value in international relations.

3. A Society Too Modern for Its Politics

Widespread dissent in Iran is rooted in a mismatch between the country’s social development and its rigid ideological regime. Unlike regimes in Syria, Haiti, or Saudi Arabia, Iran cannot justify its anti-American posture to its own population. Its educated middle class sees no rational reason for continued confrontation. Unlike China’s predictable geopolitical clash with the West, Iran’s antagonism is (unnecessary and) self-defeating.

IRAN/STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Fears Surge After Former Iranian Minister Threatens Transit Restrictions

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 07:20 AM

JPMorgan’s forecast of triple-digit Brent crude prices could soon be a reality as conflict risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. The waterway, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Any disruption, particularly amid growing military escalation between Iran and Israel, could impact energy flows worldwide and send prices soaring.

The most concerning sign of potential maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz emerged in the overnight hours via a statement on X by former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi. While unofficial, the timing and seniority of the comment may reflect broader regime sentiment—or serve as a warning of what’s to come.

“Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes will be able to pass through the strait without Iran’s approval,” Khandouzi said.

He stated, “This policy is decisive if it is implemented “in a timely manner.” Any delay in its implementation means enduring more war inside the country. Trump’s battle must be ended with a combination of economy and security.”

Such messaging, especially when paired with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval activity in the region, raises the increasing probability of IRGC actions targeting commercial shipping lanes in the strait. This escalation could serve as the catalyst that turns JPMorgan’s $120–$130 per barrel Brent crude forecast from a scenario into a market reality.

Some more excerpts from the full JPM note:

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s busiest oil-shipping channel—would shut down the region’s oil trade, supercharging oil prices.

The skinny waterway—at its narrowest point it is only 21 miles (33 km) wide— separating the UAE, Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, and facilitates the movement of some 30% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world’s LNG supply (Table 1).

Widespread GPS jamming has been reported across the strait for the last several days:

Chokepoint Watch: GPS Jamming Impacts Tankers Across Strait Of Hormuz

Which unfolded into a maritime disaster early Tuesday when crude oil tanker Front Eagle slammed into the port quarter of the tanker Adalynn, sparking a massive fire on Adalynn, and concerns about a potential ecological disaster have surged.

First View: Oil Tanker Erupts In Flames After Collision Near Strait Of Hormuz

⚠️ Harrowing images of dark fleet tanker ADALYNN (IMO #9231767) post collision. pic.twitter.com/Y1FUBNNtis
— Ed Finley–Richardson (@ed_fin) June 17, 2025

All in all, the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint appears to be in the crosshairs of the Iranian regime. On Tuesday, President Trump met with his national security team for over an hour to discuss the Middle East and later held a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The key question now is whether the U.S. will enter the conflict. If it does, a shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is almost guaranteed—setting the stage for global energy markets to be thrown into turmoil.

END

THIS AFTERNOON

Reports Of Warplanes Seeking To Strike Ayatollah As Israel Has Hit 1,100 Iranian Targets Since Friday

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 11:45 AM

More waves of missiles and strikes were exchanged between Israel and Iran overnight, with Israeli’s military announcing that 1,100 Iranian targets were hit since Friday.

The Israeli Air Force affirmed Wednesday that it is currently striking “military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in Tehran.” The war shows no signs of abating, and as yet there are no announcements that Iranian and US negotiators plan to meet.

Despite more waves of Iranian missiles having pummeled Israel in the overnight and early morning hours, Israeli leaders are trying to present normalcy and are telling the population not to panic.

“Alongside intensified combat against Iran to remove threats — we will reopen the economy, gradually release the public, and return Israel to a path of activity and security,” Defense Minister Katz said, given schools and public venues have been closed, and airspace shut for days.

On the other side, Iranians say they are living through “a nightmare” after Israel’s latest attacks, which involved more than 50 aircraft on Iranian centrifuge and missile production sites overnight.

Hebrew social media accounts are now widely claiming that Israeli jets are going after locations where they believe Ayatollah Khamenei could be hiding. Though is bunker is likely only known to his closest aides…

התקיפות האחרונות בטהרן הן באזור שבו נמצא הבונקר של חמינאי pic.twitter.com/AK48MQR24C
— ישראל היום (@IsraelHayomHeb) June 18, 2025

The Israelis continue going for command and control, nuclear, and vital infrastructure sites. Defense Minister Israel Katz has lately announced Israeli Air Force fighter jets just “destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian regime’s internal security, the main arm of the Iranian dictator’s oppression.”

“As we promised, we will continue to target symbols of [Iran’s] rule and strike the Ayatollah regime wherever it may be,” he said.

But Israeli casualties are mounting, amid immense damage on the ground. According to Israel’s Channel 12, “Since the start of the battle last week, Iran has launched approximately 400 ballistic missiles toward Israel, killing 24 people and wounding 840.”

In an astounding statement, given the world stands at the brink of a WW3-style broader Mideast conflagration which could burn for weeks or months more, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has praised Israel for doing the “dirty work for all of us” – in reference to the Western allies.

* * *

Below are some of the latest developments in the conflict via Newsquawk:

Geopolitics: Latest

Iranian Supreme leader to speak shortly, according to ISNA.
Iranian ambassador to the UN, says, if we come to the conclusion that the US is directly involved in attacks on Iran, we will start responding to the US

US Involvement?

US officials signalled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible – or if the president might resort to military action instead, according to ABC.
“Western sources: We have indications that the US will attack Iran soon”, according to Kann News.
US embassy in Jerusalem will be closed Wednesday through Friday, according to the US State Department.
US President Trump is considering a range of options when it comes to Iran, including a possible US strike on the country, according to multiple officials cited by NBC.
Israel Channel 12 journalists report US could join the war against Iran Tuesday night, via Faytuks News citing a telegram post.

Strikes Headlines

Iranian Revolutionary Guards said Iran’s Fattah missiles broke through Israeli defences, giving it ‘complete domination’ over Israeli airspace.
“Israel’s Channel 12: Army attacks Tehran’s refineries”, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli military said it attacked a centrifuge production site and several weapons production sites of the Iranian regime last night.
IDF Spokesman said the Iranian regime still has great capabilities that allow it to harm them, Al Jazeera reports. They attacked the IRGC headquarters and killed Iran’s Chief of Staff. “When we finish our mission, we will announce it and will not allow the existential threat against us to continue”.
Iran has reportedly prepared for strikes on US bases if the US joins the war, according to NYT; Officials suggest that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said The battle has begun, via Al Hadath.
Iranian state media claimed that tonight (Tuesday night) will “hold a surprise the world will remember for centuries”, according to multiple reports.
“IRGC: Attacks on Israel will continue continuously and gradually”, according to Sky News Arabia.

Diplomacy Headlines

“Source familiar says there are no plans for a meeting this week between Witkoff and Araghchi”, according to an Al-Monitor journalist.\END

END

THIS AFTERNOON:

Near Total Internet Blackout In Iran As Israel Has Control Of Skies

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 12:25 PM

Update(1302ET): Things are quickly going from bad to worse for Iran, amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes, and given Iran’s air defenses in its western portion of the country appear completely destroyed and disabled.

Iran is now in a ‘near-total national internet blackout’ – according to monitoring from a UK-based watchdog:

⚠️ Confirmed: Live network data show #Iran is now in the midst of a near-total national internet blackout; the incident follows a series of earlier partial disruptions and comes amid escalating military tensions with Israel after days of back-and-forth missile strikes 📉 pic.twitter.com/Iu598aIMRJ
— NetBlocks (@netblocks) June 18, 2025

Vital civic infrastructure in Tehran, including some sewage system and water networks, have also been hit.

END

LATE THIS AFTERNOON;

IAF continues to strike Tehran, targeting police HQ and centrifuge production sites

Army says it has hit more than 1,100 Iranian assets in hundreds of strikes since Friday; Defense Minister Katz vows to ‘continue to target symbols of Iran’s rule’

By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and AgenciesToday, 8:15 pm

Smoke rises after an apparent Israeli airstrike in Tehran on June 18, 2025 (Screen grab from social media/used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that Israel had destroyed Iran’s police headquarters in Tehran, as the IDF kept up heavy strikes across the Islamic Republic on the sixth day of fighting between the two countries, and as thousands continued to flee the Iranian capital.

Israeli Air Force fighter jets “destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian regime’s internal security, the main arm of the Iranian dictator’s oppression,” Katz said. “As we promised, we will continue to target symbols of [Iran’s] rule and strike the Ayatollah regime wherever it may be.”

Israeli officials have said they would welcome regime change in Tehran, while noting that it is not the purpose of the offensive, which is intended to take out Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities.

The IDF said Wednesday afternoon that the Israeli Air Force had carried out a wave of strikes on some 40 Iranian military targets in western Iran earlier in the day. Some 25 fighter jets were involved in the action, and the targets included missiles aimed at Israel, missile storage facilities and Iranian soldiers, according to the military.

The army said that overnight it had targeted an Iranian centrifuge production site and several weapon-production facilities, as well as an Iranian Emad ballistic missile launcher that was primed for an attack on Israel. It released footage showing the strike on the launcher, as well as on Iranian soldiers at a different ballistic missile launch site.

Since Friday, Israel has hit more than 1,100 Iranian assets in hundreds of strikes in Iran, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said in a press conference Wednesday afternoon.

“We are operating systematically to neutralize the nuclear threat,” he said, adding that the strikes are “deepening the significant damage” caused to Iran’s ballistic missiles and air defenses.

🎯 Approx. 25 fighter jets struck over 40 missile infrastructure components directed toward Israel this morning, including missile storage sites and military operatives of the Iranian Regime.

A loaded and ready-to-launch "Emad" missile launcher was also struck overnight. pic.twitter.com/8oHQYCW2A1
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 18, 2025

Defrin said the IAF had also bombed five Iranian AH-1 helicopters at a military airbase in Kermanshah Wednesday morning: “Their mission was to try and harm our aircraft.” Later in the day, the military said it had bombed another three AH-1 helicopters at Kermanshah.

Iranian officials have reported at least 224 deaths in Israeli attacks, claiming those were mostly civilians, though that toll has not been updated since Monday. The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists estimates the death toll at at least 585 people, including 239 civilians, and estimates that more than 1,300 have been wounded.

Israel says its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites and ballistic missile program launched early Friday morning is necessary to prevent the Islamic Republic from realizing its avowed plan to destroy the Jewish state.

Iran has retaliated by launching over 400 missiles and some 1,000 drones at Israel. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 wounded by the missiles.

Shops have been closed across Tehran, including in its famed Grand Bazaar, as people wait in gas lines and pack roads leading out of the city to escape the onslaught.

VIDEO: Heavy traffic in Tehran as Iranians attempt to leave the capital amid the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran pic.twitter.com/BMx9tpIkYD
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 18, 2025

A major explosion was heard in Tehran around 5 a.m. Wednesday, following other explosions earlier in the predawn darkness. Authorities in Iran offered no acknowledgement of the attacks, which have become increasingly common as Israeli strikes have intensified.

At least one strike appeared to target Tehran’s eastern neighborhood of Hakimiyeh, where the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards has an academy. Loud blasts were heard throughout Tehran on Wednesday, and a major road in the capital was partially closed.

The official IRNA news agency claimed that an Israeli strike had targeted a building of the Iranian Red Crescent Society in Tehran. The Red Crescent itself said an attack took place near its building. There was no immediate comment from the IDF.

The IDF said that its overnight operations had included strikes on an Iranian centrifuge production site and several weapon-production facilities. The centrifuge production site in Tehran was used by Iran to expand the scope and rate of its uranium enrichment to develop nuclear weapons, the military said.

The IDF stated that the weapon-production factories hit included a site for the production of raw materials and components for the assembly of surface-to-surface missiles that the Iranian regime has been firing at Israel, as well as facilities for making systems and components for surface-to-air missiles designed to hit aircraft.

An Israeli Air Force fighter jet takes off for strikes in Iran, June 18, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)

The International Atomic Energy Agency identified the two facilities struck by Israel as the TESA complex in Karaj and the Tehran Research Center.

“At the Tehran site, one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested,” the IAEA wrote on X. “At Karaj, two buildings were destroyed where different centrifuge components were manufactured.”

Both sites had been under IAEA monitoring as part of the 2015 JCPOA agreement between Iran and world powers.

The TESA complex, near the capital Tehran, housed a workshop where components for centrifuges were built, the machines used to enrich uranium. In 2021, Iran said cameras at the site were damaged during what it called an Israeli “sabotage” operation.

Centrifuges are vital for uranium enrichment, the sensitive process that can produce fuel for reactors or, in highly extended form, the core of a nuclear warhead.

Iran has long insisted its nuclear program was peaceful, though it is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

ISRAEL/IRAN/USA

behind the scenes:

Report reveals Trump’s winding path from skeptic to backer of Israel’s Iran strike

Private conversations, public denials, and high-level briefings outline how the US president drifted from peace overtures to aiding a bold Israeli assault

By Stav Levaton Follow
and ToI StaffToday, 2:19 pm

US President Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House, April 7, 2025, in Washington. (Pool via AP)

In the aftermath of Israel’s dramatic aerial assault on Tehran, new details have emerged that illustrate how US President Donald Trump gradually shifted his stance from diplomatic caution to measured military support under persistent Israeli pressure.

According to a detailed report published by The New York Times, the Israeli military began planning its strike on Iran in December, following two seismic shifts in the regional landscape: the effective dismantling of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

These developments cleared an air corridor that allowed Israel to consider a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear program, unencumbered by the conventional defenses of the regime’s regional proxies.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long argued for a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, warning that waiting too long could allow Tehran to irreversibly cross a threshold. But previous American administrations, including Trump’s own during his first term, had repeatedly pulled back from such a scenario, wary of plunging the region into a wider war.

What changed in 2025, the report said, was a mix of Israeli determination, shifting US political dynamics, and Trump’s own growing frustration with Iran’s apparent diplomatic foot-dragging.

Netanyahu’s Oval Office pitch

When Netanyahu visited the White House in February, he didn’t come empty-handed. Alongside symbolic gifts, the Times said he brought a carefully curated presentation detailing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Israeli intelligence, he claimed, showed Tehran had drastically shortened the timeline to a potential nuclear weapon, though the US intelligence community had not corroborated this in its own assessments.

US President Donald Trump with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, in Washington, February 4, 2025. (Avi Ohayon/GPO)

The premier’s argument was as tactical as it was existential. He insisted that preparing for a military strike would strengthen the diplomatic hand. If Iran believed an attack was imminent, it might be more inclined to make concessions.

But Netanyahu also made clear that Israel would not wait indefinitely for diplomatic tracks to succeed.

Trump, newly elected to a second term on a platform promising to avoid new military entanglements, resisted.

He had appointed his friend Steve Witkoff as a Middle East envoy with the express goal of reaching a negotiated solution with Iran. In fact, in a widely discussed gesture, Trump had even sent a letter directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declaring his desire for peace and a potential deal.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, May 10, 2024. (Vahid Salemi/AP)

But by May, the writing was on the wall. Trump was growing skeptical about Iran’s seriousness. According to the report, private comments revealed he felt the Iranians were “playing him” in a manner reminiscent of what he had experienced with Russia’s Vladimir Putin during stalled Ukraine ceasefire talks.

A pivotal point at Camp David

On June 8, as tensions escalated, Trump convened his national security team at Camp David. CIA Director John Ratcliffe delivered a sobering assessment: Israel was on the verge of launching a full-scale attack, with or without American support, the Times reported.

The Israeli military, Ratcliffe revealed, already had boots on the ground inside Iran.

Faced with the possibility of being blindsided by a regional war, Trump weighed his options. At one extreme, he could distance the US entirely. On the other, he could join the assault, possibly to the extent of backing regime change in Tehran. Ultimately, he chose a middle ground — providing Israel with “as-yet undisclosed” intelligence support while maintaining the public posture of diplomacy.

Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe appears during a Senate Committee on Intelligence Hearing on March 25, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/AFP)

The call that followed between Trump and Netanyahu the next day was pivotal, according to the report. The Israeli leader made it clear that the mission was already underway. Trump, impressed by Israel’s meticulous planning and daring execution, told aides privately, “I think we might have to help him.”

From hesitancy to hints of involvement

Initially, the administration remained publicly cautious. The first official comments after the strikes came not from the president but from Secretary of State and acting National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, who stopped short of endorsing Israel’s actions or affirming US involvement.

But as Israeli airstrikes delivered precision hits on Iranian leadership and strategic infrastructure, Trump’s tone began to shift. On Friday morning, as cable networks — especially Fox News — ran near-constant coverage of Israel’s apparent military brilliance, Trump leaned into the narrative. He began hinting to reporters that his administration had played a larger role behind the scenes than previously disclosed.

Privately, the Times said, he entertained the possibility of escalating US involvement further. Discussions addressed the option of authorizing American aircraft to refuel Israeli jets mid-mission and even deploying bunker-busting bombs capable of striking Iran’s hardened underground nuclear facility at Fordo.

An IAF Boeing 707 refueling plane and several F-35 and F-15 fighter jets carry out a drill just off the coast of Israel, August 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

The end of diplomacy?

Despite continued gestures suggesting a diplomatic resolution was still possible — Trump floated the idea of sending Witkoff or Vice President JD Vance to negotiate with Iran — the momentum was clearly headed in another direction.

The collapse of secret negotiations in Oman and Khamenei’s rejection of a US proposal on June 4 reportedly marked the turning point.

At a time when the more isolationist wing in Trump’s circle, including Vance, was warning about the dangers of spiraling into regime-change war, the president seemed increasingly open to greater military involvement. The gap between intention and reality narrowed rapidly, with Trump drawn toward Netanyahu’s strategic goals and increasingly disillusioned with the path of diplomacy.

Looking ahead

With Israeli strikes on Tehran continuing nonstop and diplomatic efforts appearing increasingly futile, all signs now point to deeper US involvement.

US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while flying aboard Air Force One en route from Calgary, Canada, to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on June 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Though Trump has yet to greenlight a military strike, recent deployments of American military assets to the region signal clear operational readiness.

White House officials confirmed that military action was discussed at the highest levels this week, even as Trump continues to publicly insist that the threat of force alone should compel Iran to concede.

Despite signing a G7 statement urging de-escalation, Trump has struck a far more aggressive tone in recent days, publicly calling for the evacuation of Tehran and repeating his unequivocal stance that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon.

ISRAEL IRAN/USA

OPINION..

Iran’s ally Qatar put in a tough position over Israel-Iran war – analysis

Iran’s threats to the Gulf or to US bases in the region will not come off well in Washington. If Trump decides to get involved and Doha opposes it, this will not help Qatar’s position.

Iran’s Ali Khamenei meets with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in Tehran, February 20, 2025(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)BySETH J. FRANTZMANJUNE 18, 2025 16:35Updated: JUNE 18, 2025 16:37

Qatar is in a tough place as the Israel-Iran war stretches into its sixth day on June 18. Qatar has close relations with Iran. It is also a major non-NATO ally.

As such it has often sought to act as an ostensibly neutral player when it comes to any tensions between the US and Iran. It did not mediate the recent talks, rather Oman hosted the Iranians and US during the talks.

However, Qatar has played a key role as mediator regarding the Gaza conflict. It hosts Hamas and portrays itself as playing a positive role in the hostage talks. Qatar also did the same with the Taliban; hosting them and helping with talks with the US that led the Taliban back to power.

Therefore, Qatar potentially has a lot to lose if the conflict drags on or if the US intervenes against Iran. This is because Doha also hosts an important US military base called al-Udeid.

In the past, during the conflict in Afghanistan, the US based B-52s at Al-Udeid. Qatar doesn’t want to be put in a position where US aircraft might fly out of Doha for conflict with Iran. According to reports, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Amjad al-Ansari has also asserted that the Israel-Iran conflict is delaying hostage and ceasefire talks.

Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari, speaks in Doha, Qatar, February 20, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/IMAD CREIDI) — Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari, speaks in Doha, Qatar, February 20, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/IMAD CREIDI)

In fact, since Israel began strikes on Iran on June 13, the hostage talks have barely been mentioned in Israeli media. The Gaza war does not seem to be on the mind of most media, as a larger war unfolds.

Qatar has been putting out messages since June 13 about its concerns over the war. For instance, Ansari has said that Qatar is hopeful about diplomacy as a path to resolving crisis. “In the region and beyond.

Qatar has been actively engaged in facilitating diplomatic solutions, particularly regarding tensions between Israel and Iran. Our communication with regional and international partners is ongoing.

Currently, there are no direct threats to our energy production, and the situation remains stable, despite the recent reckless attack on the Pars field.

Our primary concern is ensuring the safety of personnel working with the international consortium in the North Field,” Qatar said. It also spoke about “the necessity of halting Israeli hostilities against Iran and returning to the path of negotiations.”

On June 13 Qatar’s Prime Minister said on X that “as nations seek diplomatic solutions for peace in the Middle East, Israel’s actions continue to undermine the prospects for peace & put our people & global security & peace in imminent danger. The international community must stop these dangerous violations before it is too late.”

As the war between Israel and Iran unfolds, it’s possible that Doha may lose out on influence in the region. US President Donald Trump appears to be ready to increase pressure on Tehran. Other Gulf states will likely follow Trump’s lead.

Qatar will not be able to do this because of its close ties with Tehran. Doha will want to position itself to mediate. It usually does this by being able to claim that it has positive ties with both sides of various conflicts.

That is how it got involved in the talks about Gaza and Afghanistan; by hosting Hamas and the Taliban. As such, it’s possible it will angle to host Iranian delegations and try to get the White House to climb down from hostilities.

However, its also possible that Doha’s attempts to mediate could backfire. Israel has shown that it can defeat Iran and weaken iran’s military. Doha usually relies on its ability to play both sides when both sides seem to have initiative.

For instance, the Taliban were slowly winning in Afghanistan and the US wanted to get out. Doha helped the US leave. Hamas also has been holding hostages. Qatar positions itself as wanting a ceasefire to help hostages. Iran doesn’t seem to have this leverage. Iran is losing rapidly. Iran’s regime may be in danger.

There also isn’t a strong Iran lobby in Washington as there was in the past. Republicans are impressed with Israel’s abilities to weaken Iran. Although there are some voices on the fringe of the Right and Left who oppose the war, most of them are taking a wait and see, and many are cheering on Israel.

Iran has threatened the US for 45 years. There isn’t much sympathy for Tehran.

Qatar must work quickly to be able to play a role in the current crisis. Calling for diplomacy and condemning Israel may not work as well as it has in the past. Iran’s regime is weakened.

Iran’s threats to the Gulf or to US bases in the region will not come off well in Washington. If Trump decides to move forward with intervention and Doha opposes it, this will not improve Qatar’s position.

However, Doha could pivot and decide to ditch the Iranian regime and that might change its calculations about Hamas. Perhaps it could then pressure Hamas to also end the war. This is another possible outcome.See more on

RUSSIA VS UKRAINE

The Brits & Ukrainians Are Plotting To Manipulate Trump Into Escalating Against Russia

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 01:40 PM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency (SVR) warned that the Brits and Ukrainians are preparing two false flag scenarios in the Baltic Sea.

The first one would see Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes explode near a US ship there and a supposedly malfunctioning one will then be found to implicate Russia in the alleged attack

The second, meanwhile, will involve Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian mines fished out of the Baltic Sea and presented as proof of a Kremlin plot to sabotage international shipping.

These perfidious provocations are being employed to manipulate Trump into escalating against Russia after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in mid-February that the US won’t extend Article 5 mutual defense guarantees to NATO countries’ troops that might deploy to Ukraine. That scenario was the initial one that was planned for getting him to pull out of talks with Putin and then double down on support for Ukraine, but his team preemptively scuttled it through Hegseth’s announcement.

That’s why efforts are now underway to organize a false flag attack against a US ship in the Baltic and/or frame Russia as a threat to international shipping through the fishing out of its mines there. The Baltic has already been a so-called “NATO lake” since even before Finland and Sweden’s joined NATO given their prior shadow membership in the bloc, however, so it’s unrealistic that Russia could really carry out either of these two operations undetected even if it wanted to.

Here are some background briefings:

* 11 March: “Russian Spies Warn That The UK Is Trying To Sabotage Trump’s Envisaged ‘New Détente’”

* 24 March: “Putin’s Senior Aide Patrushev Shared Some Updates About The Arctic & Baltic Fronts”

* 22 April: “Estonia Might Become Europe’s Next Trouble Spot”

* 1 June: “Russia’s Military Build-Up Along The Finnish Border Will Likely Be The New Normal”

* 3 June: “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break”

To summarize, they detail the contextual evolution of this scenario from SVR’s prior warnings of the UK’s intent to sabotage the Russian-US talks on Ukraine to the motives of regional actors (Estonia and Finland) in going along with this, ending with the diplomatic impasse that defines today’s state of affairs. About that, if the US doesn’t coerce Ukraine into the concessions that Russia demands for peace but also doesn’t wash its hands of this conflict, then it might very well double down on its involvement instead.

The reasonable speculation that Trump knew about Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against Russia in advance coupled with the latest speculation that he deceived Iran with duplicitous diplomacy doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in him personally since he could possibly be in on these false flag plots too. Despite Putin’s bonhomie with Trump, which was recently expressed through their most recent call, some in Russia are beginning to suspect Trump of double-dealing.

It’s therefore imperative that he preemptively commit to not escalating against Russia if either of these two false flag scenarios transpire just like Hegseth preemptively averted the deployment of NATO countries’ troops to Ukraine (at least for now) by declaring that Article 5 won’t extend to them. It’s unclear whether Trump read SVR’s warning or if he can rely on his advisors to inform him (unless Putin told already him), however, so he might not even be aware of this and could thus be manipulated.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

This is good!

Kraft Heinz Will No Longer Launch Products In US With Artificial Colors

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Kraft Heinz said on Tuesday that it will not launch any new products with artificial colors in the United States and will remove the additives from its existing product portfolio by the end of 2027.

The company added that, by net sales, nearly 90 percent of its U.S. products are already free of food, drug, and cosmetic (FD&C) colors.

For the remaining products, the company will remove colors “not critical to the consumer experience,” replace them with natural alternatives, or create new colors and shades when alternatives are not available.

The company’s June 17 announcement follows a call by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), along with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), to phase out all petroleum-based synthetic dyes from the nation’s food supply.

“For too long, some food producers have been feeding Americans petroleum-based chemicals without their knowledge or consent,” HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in an April 22 statement.

Kennedy said that the “poisonous compounds” offered no nutritional benefits and adversely impacted children’s health and development. He said the department was working with the industry to get rid of the “toxic dyes” from the food supply.

FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said that the agency asked food companies to substitute artificial colors with “natural ingredients for American children as they already do in Europe and Canada,” citing an epidemic of childhood diabetes, obesity, depression, and ADHD.

In Tuesday’s statement, Heinz said the company had used FD&C colors since it had a “longstanding history of approval” from the FDA.

Kraft Heinz North America President Pedro Navio said that most of his company’s products use natural or no colors.

“In fact, we removed artificial colors, preservatives, and flavors from our beloved Kraft Mac & Cheese back in 2016,” Navio said. “Our iconic Heinz Tomato Ketchup has never had artificial dyes – the red color comes simply from the world’s best tomatoes. Above all, we are focused on providing nutritious, affordable, and great-tasting food for Americans and this is a privilege we don’t take lightly.”

Companies, including cereal manufacturer WK Kellogg, meatpacker Tyson Foods, and Walmart’s Sam’s Club, have announced plans to remove artificial food dyes from their product lines following the HHS announcement.

Dye Ban Opposition

The Consumer Brands Association, which represents manufacturers, said food colors have been widely used in the supply chain because they were deemed safe.

“The ingredients used in America’s food supply have been rigorously studied following an objective science and risk-based evaluation process and have been demonstrated to be safe,” the association said in an April 22 statement in response to the HHS decision to ban food dyes. “As we increase the use of alternative ingredients, food and beverage companies will not sacrifice science or the safety of our products.”

The association also asked the HHS and FDA to develop a coordinated set of rules when setting food regulations.

“A state patchwork of differing laws creates confusion for consumers, limits access to everyday goods, deters innovation, and increases costs at the grocery store,” it said.

The International Association of Color Manufacturers (IACM), representing the interests of the color additives industry, said in a statement that “despite common misconceptions, synthetic (FD&C) colors are approved and continue to be used worldwide, including in Europe.”

The IACM’s website lists Fast Green No. 3 as approved for use in the United States but not authorized for food use in the European Union or the UK.

FD&C Red No. 40, Yellow No. 5, Yellow No. 6, Quinoline Yellow, Azorubine (Carmoisine), and Ponceau 4R (Cochineal Red A) are listed as being subject to a warning on European labels.

Proposing reformulation within 2026 “ignores scientific evidence and underestimates the complexity of food production. This process is neither simple nor immediate, and the resulting supply disruptions will limit access to familiar, affordable grocery items. IACM and its members remain committed to science-based dialogue on color additives,” the IACM said.

According to the HHS, authorization for two synthetic food colorings—Citrus Red No. 2 and Orange B—will be revoked within the coming months.

Six dyes—FD&C Green No. 3, FD&C Red No. 40, FD&C Yellow No. 5, FD&C Yellow No. 6, FD&C Blue No. 1, and FD&C Blue No. 2—will be eliminated from the food supply by the end of next year. FD&C Red No. 3 will also be removed.

Four new natural color additives will be authorized soon, and the agency has partnered with the National Institutes of Health to conduct comprehensive research on how food additives impact children’s health and development.

Health officials said the administration had not yet made a formal deal with corporations on food dyes.

“There are a lot of tools at our disposal,” Makary said. “Let’s start in a friendly way.”

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Robert Malone is now given a role in CDC’s ACIP (FDA, CDC corrupt dangerous morons) yet it is Malone who has a role in the deadly mRNA technology & it is he who sat silent as he shilled & pushed the

vaccine until deaths piled up & then he ran to hide out in the Freedom Movement; RFK Jr. is flat wrong giving this fraud grifter an ACIP role, it is so funny yet makes one want to cry at the craziness

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 17

READ IN APP

Not even taking the shot was true, word is a pure lie to shill and drive you to take it…

It is Malone who began suing people like Breggin who questioned him, like Ruby, like anyone who questioned him…he poked me but he knows better, it is he who sat silent on mRNA reverse transcription and the potential deadly impact on human genome, yet he was silent until he could shill no more, then running to bullshit ‘then’ credible reports like EPOCH and DEL and CHD…then…for interviews…and their silence…grifting on unsuspecting donors, it is he who sat silent on damage to mitochondria, it is he who sat silent knowing the content of the mRNA vaccine etc. the LNP did not and could not stay at the injection site and HAD to disperse system wide for it is he who did research on mRNA and liposomes etc. and he knew encasing the mRNA molecule in a molecular transport vehicle comprised of fat (lipid bi-layer) was the ONLY way that the mRNA payload could get to where it needed to be and not be destroyed by the immune system, yet he was silent until Canadian scientist Bridle pointed it out, it was he who sat silent as the FDA and CDC and NIH lied to the nation on this for he was shilling like when he was shilling telling you the mRNA vaccine saved lives yet he knew he was lying and so many who listened took it and many died so the deaths lay at his feet and you Bobby Jr. reward this fraud?

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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It is he who sat silent knowing the content of the vaccine and all linked to it would not dissolve rapidly and leave the system as the CDC and FDA etc. told us, and that it would persist and by all accounts today we know it persists for years and likely lifelong with a devastating mechanism of lethal toxic action yet he sat silent…it was he. not you. he. he is nothing but a con grifter with a terrible case of short man syndrome. and envious petty man envious of all else. Just ask him Bobby Jr., to show is this data he said he saw…this TWEET by him tells you the con of him, he was lying there but what he must know is people died and one day he will pay in a court…we all pay our debts…a court is where he is destined, him and all like him, Bourla, Bancel, Sahin et al. Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech et al. all of them.

he sat silent, they all sat silent, are criminals IMO…and he, Malone is worse for they at least, like Drew Weissman and Kariko who Malone threatened for they got the NOBEL…stand behind their death technology and shot, this SMS man ran and hid in the Freedom Movement convincing DEL and CHD and Brownstone et al. that he was above board.

RFK Jr., let us agree that if Malone can show you and us, show me the data he was alluding to here, show us, show us the unambiguous data, I will praise him. But he cannot. He was a duplicitous fraud then and now and you sullied and damaged your reputation appointing him. RFK Jr. It is a joke. Makes the entire ACIP look pedestrian. IMO it should be shut down. Not replaced.

Show us the data Bob Malone where the mRNA vaccine saved lives. Show us. And btw, these are my words, my views, I speak for me.

END

Is it that because it is Christians being killed by radical islamists that no one cares? Where is the media? Time and again we see Christians killed in African nations & the media is no where to be

seen; why? “Foreign-funded jihadist groups and radicalized Fulani herdsmen are pushing southward in deadly waves, slaughtering Christian farming communities under the banner of conquest.”

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 17

READ IN APP

This must end now!

‘Over a Hundred More Christians Massacred by Islamists in Nigeria in Ongoing Genocide Campaign — Where is the Media Coverage?’

GWP shared:

‘Fulani Islamic militants have unleashed another round of unspeaka

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NEWSWIZE

“Unconditional Surrender!”

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 10:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

So, no, President Trump didn’t leave the G7 to discuss a Middle-East ceasefire. From the Situation Room, he instead declared: “we” now have total control over Iranian airspace; “we” know where Supreme Leader Khamenei is bunkering down but are not going to kill him (yet); and that Iran must offer its “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

So, is the US going to enter the war despite the risk of possible attacks on its bases? Anonymous claim a false flag attack on US soil perpetrated by what’s clearly implied as Israel looms to drag it into the war: but isn’t the war part obvious(?) Khamanei tweeted from his bunker –presumably not on a new gold Trump phone– “The Battle begins”, referring to Khaybar, Shia Islam’s conquest of a Saudi Jewish town in 628CE. The unofficial Shah of Iran, abroad, called for an uprising with unsubstantiated claims some of Iran’s military may defect to him, as parts of Tehran were evacuated, Israel hit more military facilities, and some ATM machines stopped functioning. Regime change really can’t be ruled out, it seems: but what then? And who will have control of the nuclear material scattered round the country?

France’s Macron is warning that a violent Iran regime change would trigger ‘chaos’; so would leaving a violent Iran regime in place with a nuclear programme; and so is trying to remove that programme with violence. It’s easy to be a purist and say ‘Non’ to things which one isn’t capable of doing about threats one chooses not to see. It’s not so easy to say, ‘Oui, *quelque chose* doit être fait’ (Yes, *something* must be done.) But what and how?

It’s all desperately confusing and extremely worrying. Indeed, it can feel like we are watching ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and ‘Hot Shots’ on twin screens, and ‘V for Vendetta’ and ‘The Dictator’, while humming The Scorpions’ ‘Wind of Change’. As such, some in markets are unconditionally surrendering to the appeal of ignoring this as much as possible; or of ‘maverick’ geopolitical Top Hot Takes that the USA V Iran will see asset prices heat up even further once the Big Gun enters the arena. Both are possible in the short term but overlook that this isn’t a regional but a global issue.

As Bloomberg puts it, ‘Russia Fears for Ally Iran With Few Tools to Influence Crisis’, with memes of Khamenei sitting sadly in a Moscow flat with former Syrian President Assad flowing. Russia loves the thought of higher oil prices and hates the idea of losing an ally in Iran. Even with its resources tied up with Ukraine, agreeing to allow the regime to flee to Moscow would have to be part of a larger geopolitical deal. And if you don’t know what that might mean, it might mean you’re part of it.

In geoeconomics, the Wall Street Journal says, ‘If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price’ as “Chinese refineries have become hooked on cheap imports of sanctioned Iranian crude.” China also may want to have a say: what’s in it for them if Iran sees regime change and the Middle East, and its oil, ends up as a US satrapy?

Or the EU, which just released its latest proposals to wean itself off Russian gas – but not oil. However, that’s just as Qatar –whom it will have to rely on instead– warned that LNG carriers sailing to it should wait outside the Strait of Hormuz as GPS tracking being jammed has already seen two tankers collide, and its foreign ministry noted everyone is concerned about “uncalculated targeting” of the South Pars gas field.

The EU is also spurning economic dialogue with China due to the latter’s neo-mercantilism: a planned summit in July is now off. Moreover, European Commission President Von der Leyen said at the G7, “On this point, Donald is right – there is a serious problem… [China’s] undercutting intellectual property protections, massive subsidies with the aim to dominate global manufacturing and supply chains. This is not market competition – it is distortion with intent,” and threatens “a new China shock.” So, is the EU going to line up with the US vs. China as the larger threat? If not, what?

That’s as ECB President Lagarde spoke of a “global euro moment.” No, not more countries watching their camp Song Contest –where Israel was also a story this year– but EUR gaining ground on the USD as a global reserve asset. Yet that’s at a time when European powerlessness vis-à-vis the US could not be more amply demonstrated across multiple realpolitik dimensions from military to energy to tech to banking. (And as UK PM Starmer is reportedly going to meet NATO defence spending targets by counting rural broadband as such. “We” feel safer already.)

Indeed, while Bloomberg notes ‘Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Imperilling the Dollar’s Reign’ it’s others’ physical reigns in question due to US hard power. If markets are too blind to see that truth, “because markets”, and think somehow, they sit above that dynamic, not below it, then I’m not sure what function they play anymore – with emphasis on the word ‘play’.

The same can be said about fudging defense spending figures to please markets who think pure economic policy targets actually still matter. Go ahead: just don’t be surprised if you turn out to be more of an Iran and less of an Israel if/when push ever comes to shove.

Notably, Lagarde’s call also implies Europe must produce more financial assets and less physical stuff – as if that helps it in the present geopolitical circumstances. On cue(?), the EU is to resurrect securitisation banking practices that helped cause the 2008 global financial crisis. Then again, ‘US Plans to Ease Capital Rule Limiting Banks’ Treasury Trades’, where Bloomberg notes: “The revisions aim to bolster banks’ roles as intermediaries in the market, but some experts argue that easing the leverage ratio may not encourage banks to buy more Treasuries and could make the financial system more fragile.” But if this all goes wrong, who will need whose swap lines as part of a bailout? I’m asking for a friend who may or may not be in a bunker.

True, Bloomberg also ran a story saying some exporters to the US don’t want to receive dollars: so, don’t sell to the US then, which is how the current and capital accounts link up; or get the dollars and sell them to someone else. There is no sign of an unconditional dollar surrender here really.

In politics, the US Supreme Court will also get to look at Trump tariffs at some point later this year – who doesn’t, it seems? Moreover, the White House may ban pharma firms from TV advertising, with a huge impact on both, and the FBI is alluding to attempted Chinese election interference in 2020. Not a dull moment.

But it’s the Fed today, where their usual whisperer Nick Timiraos is tweeting that they would be thinking about cutting already if not for their concern over the known unknowns of tariffs, which have not shown any real impact on CPI so far. Yet what about the unknown unknowns of geopolitics? Will the Fed today mark an unconditional surrender to that hard exogenous reality or continue to fight and die on the hill that it has nothing to do with them at all… and that they have nothing to do with it, when actually they ?

I would wager most of the money will be on the latter, who coincidentally think the same way – for now. After all it’s not until 2026 that they must face up to that ugly reality, unless we get a Shadow Fed Chair appointed earlier. Plenty of time to go risk on and ignore the world around them and their now subordinate position within it.

7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS//GLOBAL/ENERGY/

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE

INDIA

Container Ship Rocked By Explosion Off Indian Coast

Monday, Jun 09, 2025 – 10:25 AM

The Singapore-flagged container ship Wan Hai 503 erupted in flames after an explosion rocked the vessel earlier today off the coast of Beypore, a port town in Kerala, southern India.

The Indian Coast Guard (ICG) wrote on X that naval assets responded swiftly following an explosion aboard the Wan Hai 503, located approximately 130 nautical miles northwest of the Kerala coast.

Quick response by @IndiaCoastGuard after explosion on #Singapore flagged MV #WANHAI503, 130 NM NW of #Kerala coast.
➡️ #ICG aircraft assessed the scene & dropped air-droppable
➡️ 04 #ICG ships diverted for rescue.#MaritimeSafety #ICG #SearchAndRescue pic.twitter.com/xVPEShbU8h
— Indian Coast Guard (@IndiaCoastGuard) June 9, 2025

ICG deployed a maritime surveillance aircraft to the incident area for real-time assessment and reconnaissance, alongside diverting four ICG vessels to the area. Local media reports confirm that the crew has abandoned the Wan Hai 503.

Here are more details about the incident via The Hindu:

Of the 18 crew in the lifeboat, one is reported to have sustained serious injuries. Four crew (2 Taiwanese, 1 Indonesian and 1 Myanmarese) are missing from the time of the explosion. ICG Dornier aircraft is maintaining overhead the vessel for real-time assessment.

The vessel is presently adrift and firefighting efforts by the Coast Guard have commenced to bring the situation under control. The details of the cargo onboard are being ascertained to determine the nature of fire and the potential risks involved during firefighting operations, the officials said.

The fire poses a significant risk of further explosions and potential structural compromise. Any drifting containers or subsequent hazards to navigation will be assessed only after Coast Guard ships return after rescue operations. All nearby traffic has been alerted to maintain safe CPA and speed reductions in the vicinity, the officials said.

. . .

According to DG Shipping officials, owners have been requested to promptly assess and report the nature of the cargo in the affected hold to ascertain the presence of any hazardous material

One X user on ICG’s X account asked: “Can this second occurrence be indicative of sabotaging indian coast.”

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO/USA: 1.1505 UP 0.0023 PTS OR 23 BASIS POINTS

USA/ YEN 145.08 DOWN 0.312 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3451 UP .0022 OR 22 BASIS PTS

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3670 UP 0.0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 1.40 PTS OR 0.04%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 265.61 PTS OR 1.12%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .15%

// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 269.61 PTS OR 1.12%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.40 PTS OR 0.04%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.15 %

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 348.41 PTS OR 0.90%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 3387.25

silver:$37.25

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.26 DOWN .13 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE

.WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.031% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.441% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.211 DOWN 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.501 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5266 UP 1 BASIS PTS

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1492 UP 0.0010 OR 10 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.85 DOWN 0.535 OR YEN IS UP 54 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5120 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0015 OR 15 BASIS pts to 1.3669

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1883, CNY ON SHORE ..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1926

TURKISH LIRA: 39.54 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.441

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.361% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.863 DOWN 2 in basis points /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.935 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3393.60

SILVER AT 11;00: 37.05

Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 9.44 PTS OR 0.11%

GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 116/84 pts or 0.50%

FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 27.61 pts or 0.36%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 11.50pts or 0.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 31.39 or 0.08%

WTI Oil price 75.53 11 EST/

Brent Oil: 76.92 11:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78342 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 15/ 100

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.350 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.942 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1467 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS POINTS//

British Pound: 1.3403 DOWN .0025 OR 25 basis pts/

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.502 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.445 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.33 UP 0.647 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3694 UP 0.0010 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR DOWN 10 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 74.31

Brent OIL: 76.05

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.385

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.888%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 3.939%

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.343 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.936 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 98.53 UP 14 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.53 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.97 UP 0 AND 50/100 roubles

GOLD $3373.70 (3:30 PM)

SILVER: 36.71 (3:30 PM)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 44.14 OR 0.10%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 0.61 PTS OR 0.00%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.90 DOWN 1.70 PTS OR 7.87%

GLD: $ 310.26 DOWN 1.68 PTS OR 0.54%

SLV/ $33.27 DOWN .47 PTS OR OR 1.39%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 18.46 OR 0.07%

end

TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING

Stocks Pump’n’Dump As Powell Pessimism Trumps Iran Optimism

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 08:00 PM

Stocks surged higher shortly after the cash open as President Trump said that Iran had reached out to negotiate, but that spike higher faded for all but Small Caps. The Nasdaq went red right before The Fed, then the fact that The Fed did not shift its median rate cut expectation for 2025 (despite growing fears of stagflation) prompted gains in stocks.

But then Powell said “we expect a meaningful amount of inflation in coming months.”

*POWELL: WE EXPECT A MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF INFL. IN COMING MONTHS https://t.co/pbD9Cc3Wml

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2025

…and that sent stocks back to the lows…and then Trump spoke again: *TRUMP: HAVEN’T CLOSED DOOR TO CONVERSATIONS WITH IRAN – which lifted stocks again… But that faded when *TRUMP: POSSIBLE THAT FIGHTING NECESSARY TO BLOCK IRAN NUCLEAR.

By the close, Small Caps outperformed while the rest of the majors were basically unchanged.

Some of the highlights from Powell’s presser include:

Goldman summed up the press conference succinctly:

“Powell NOT sounding particularly dovish”

Powell is confident on unemployment:

“The labor market’s not crying out for a rate cut,” he says.

On tariff-driven inflation, Powell warned:

“We’re beginning to see some effects and we do expect to see more of them over the coming months.”

…which seems to be more about surveys than hard data!

Powell said that The Fed ‘can’t assume tariff inflation hit will just be a one-time thing’, but they did exactly that in the SEP with PCE expected to decline significantly next year and beyond.

“We feel like we’re going to learn a great deal more over the summer about tariffs,” Powell says, adding that they didn’t expect to know too much yet at this point.

On gauging the tariff effect:

“That process is very hard to predict, and we haven’t been through a situation like this, and I think we have to be humble about our ability to forecast it.”

Powell admitted that tariff uncertainty has declined (which upset a lot of establishment narrative builders), and he is right (it’s just that geopolitical uncertainty has risen now which has lifted equity and bond uncertainty modestly)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, summarizing: Trump was (slightly) optimistic about an Iran deal, and Powell seemed pessimistic on tariff driven inflation and growth.

Powell’s pessimism was backed by the fact that ‘hard’ data continues to decline even as ‘soft’ survey data reverts higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The early short-squeeze was halted by Powell…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, lower quality led the way today with Meme Stocks and Unprofitable Tech outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge funds were hit hard again after a brief recovery yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the day only modestly lower, despite some notable intraday vol. Yields are all lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations barely moved on the day.

The dollar also ended the day almost unchanged, rising back after Powell from early losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold dipped, but is broadly in a narrow trading range for the last 48 hours or so…

Source: Bloomberg

Platinum broke above its 2021 highs to its highest since 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended the day unchanged-ish, but saw some notable swings intraday lower on Trump comments (and a large crude draw was ignored)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin followed the path of stocks with early gains giving way to modest losses by the end of the day (despite the Senate passing the GENIUS Act)…

Source: Bloomberg

Where next for crypto?

Source: Bloomberg

Before we close: amid all the headline roulette, it’s worth noting that pretty much every asset class ended unchanged today.

USDollar unch, Oil unch, bitcoin very small down, gold small down, yields unch, stocks unch

Finally, with tomorrow a market holiday, we warn that Friday is an options expiration…

…the biggest June expiration ever. So expect some vol.

BIG AFTERNOON NEWS

“Stupid” Powell Does Not Cut Rates (As Expected) Despite ‘Diminished Uncertainty’, Worse Stagflation

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 02:00 PM

Tl;dr: The Fed held rates flat as expected, which will likely upset Trump even more, amid growing fear of stagflation.

The Fed did not shift its view of (median) rate-cut expectations for 2025 despite calling for higher unemployment, higher inflation, and weaker growth.

But, the distribution of outcomes for 2025 shifted hawkishly… with seven policy members seeing no cuts in 2025 (up from 4)

* * *

“We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed, he probably won’t cut today,” Trump said, hours before the Fed decision urging Powell to cut rates by 2.5 percentage points.

“I call him ‘Too Late Powell’ because he’s always too late,”

“What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!”

President Trump on Fed Chair Powell: "We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed. He probably won't cut today…Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?" pic.twitter.com/65hq3w47CF
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 18, 2025

Well he’s too-late-er now as The Fed decided, as expected, to hold rates flat for yet another month.

Trump wasn’t alone as Chris Whalen remarked:

“We need more courage in this country. The Fed is the most cowardly, despicable institution I’ve ever worked for.”

* * *

Since the last FOMC meeting on May 7th, a lot has happened both macro-economically and geopolitically. Global trade policy uncertainty has tumbled but geopolitical uncertainty has soared…

Source: Bloomberg

This has sent crude oil prices soaring as the dollar ad bonds lost ground. Gold is flat while stocks are up significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Hard’ data has started to turn down (as ‘soft’ data reverted higher)…

Source: Bloomberg

Just a reminder…

Some more "facts": the last time US data was this weak the Fed cut 50bps https://t.co/JkpqnlhFm3 pic.twitter.com/7GJOqr93RC
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2025

But, rate-cut expectations for 2025 have tumbled since the last FOMC meeting (though 2026 expectations are up modestly)

Source: Bloomberg

So, while no one expects The Fed to cut rates today, all eyes will be on the DOTS, the economic projections, and what Powell says (whether he will tilt hawkish)

Rate Decision – No Change but ‘Diminished Uncertainty’

As 100% expected, The Fed chose to leave the key Fed Funds rate unchanged:

*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE
*FED: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS DIMINISHED, STILL ELEVATED

The DOTS shifted Dovishly

Heading into the statement, the market was more dovish than The Fed for 2025 and more hawkish than The Fed for 2027 (in line in 2026)…

Source: Bloomberg

While median 2025 rate cut expectations are the same…

…they see more cuts in 2026 and 2027 than previously.

7 Fed officials see no rate cuts at all in 2025 (up from 4 prior)

2 Fed officials see 1 rate cut (down from 4)
8 Fed officials see 2 rate cuts (down from 9)
2 Fed officials see 3 rate cuts (same)

The Fed’s economic projections move more stagflationary

*FOMC MEDIAN 2025 GDP PROJECTION FALLS TO 1.4% FROM 1.7%
*FOMC MEDIAN 2025 PCE INFLATION RISES TO 3%, CORE RISES TO 3.1%
*FOMC MEDIAN 2025 UNEMPLOYMENT PROJECTION TICKS UP TO 4.5%

So, The Fed sees worsening unemployment than at the last meeting, worse inflation to come, and worse economic growth…

BUT, amid all the tariff derangement anxiety by the Fed, the worst they can come up with is core PCE rising to 3.1% by December (from 2.5% now) before tumbling to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1%in 2027

As Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva noted:

“The inflation forecast of 3% for this year is pretty remarkable given where prices are now.

We’re at 2.1% in the headline PCE, so that would be a substantial reigniting of price pressures.

On the surface, it’s hard to square that forecast with two rate cuts, but clearly Fed officials see it as quite temporary, with inflation dropping back to 2.4% next year and then 2.1% in 2027.”

We tend to agree with StanChart’s Steve Englander who noted that “the FOMC’s objective at this meeting as expanding the range of possible policy responses while committing to none. “

Read the full red-line below:

USA DATA RELEASES

DOGE Is Working: Jobless Claims In ‘Deep TriState’ Surge To 4 Year Highs

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 08:50 AM

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell from an upwardly revised 250k the prior week to 245k last week

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims remain above 1.9 million Americans (and the trend of initial claims keeps rising)…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims in the ‘Deep TriState’ continue to soar, at their highest level since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

DOGE is working!

end

Housing Starts & Permits Plunge To Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 08:42 AM

A day after homeBUILDER sentiment finally cracked (though still dramatically more ‘confident’ than homeBUYERS)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and mortgage rates are rebounding higher, Housing Starts and Building Permits expectations were mixed ahead of this morning’s print.

The actual data was NOT mixed with both Starts (-9.8% MoM) and Permits (-2.0% MoM) well below expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

May Housing starts:

single-family up 0.4% to 924K SAAR from 920K
multi-family tumbled 30.4% to 316K SAAR from 454K, lowest since Nov 2024

This is the biggest MoM drop in multi-family unit starts since 2022…

This dragged the SAARs for both Starts and Permits down to their lowest level since the CVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

This should not be a surprise given the weakness expected from builders for future sales…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps the most shocking chart – that explains why builders are not building single-family homes is that inventories of unsold NEW homes is surging…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, rate-cut expectations are not helping…

Source: Bloomberg

So, don’t bank on The Fed to save the day.

USA ECONOMIC NEWS

MASSACHUSETTS

Don’t Even Think About Living In This State Unless You Make At Least $300,000

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 10:10 PM

If you want to live comfortably in Massachusetts, the most expensive state in the United States, a family of four should have an income of at least $300,000 annually, according to research conducted by SmartAsset.

To live comfortably, a household must allocate 50% of income to essential expenses, 30% to discretionary spending, and 20% to debt repayment and savings, adhering to the 50/30/20 budgeting framework,

The same analysis found that Boston’s cost of living of more than 4% outpaced the U.S. national average of 3.87% in 2024. A separate analysis conducted by SmartAsset found that Boston is also the most expensive city in the country to raise a child, with the bulk of the annual $39,22 cost coming from child care.

“In comparison, the national average of raising a child in the U.S. is about $15,800,” ConsumerAffairs media relations specialist Brooklyn Bannister said. “[A key factor] that attributes to it is they have also the 4th highest housing cost, with about $5,000 extra annually for families.”

SmartAsset drew on MIT Living Wage Calculator data to assess the basic cost of living for a single individual without children and for two working adults with two children, incorporating expenses for housing, food, transportation, income taxes, and other miscellaneous costs.

CNBC reports:

The cost of living for families in other states may not be quite as high as in Massachusetts, but three states — Vermont, New Jersey and Montana — are on track to rapidly catch up, with double-digit growth rates from 2024, found SmartAsset’s report.

On the flip side, overall costs of living actually shrank from 2024 in six states, the report said: Hawaii, New York, Georgia, Delaware, Michigan and Iowa.

In contrast, Mississippi stands as the most affordable state, where a family of four needs a minimum annual income of $186,618 to live comfortably, according to SmartAsset.

More key findings from SmartAsset:

Hawaii is the most expensive state for a single adult to live comfortably. It takes a salary of $124,467 for a single adult to cover needs, wants, long-term savings and income taxes in the Aloha State. This is up 9.48% from just a year ago, when the same level of comfort was estimated to be earned at $113,693.
Adults in West Virginia need just $80,829 to live comfortably. Singletons in West Virginia need least of any state, maintaining its ranking from last year when a single adult needed $78,790. However, families need the lowest income in Mississippi, where the 2025 household income needed is just $186,618 across two earners.
Families in Vermont and New Jersey may be feeling their income squeezed. When it comes to the household income needed for a family to live comfortably, Vermont saw the highest one-year increase at 15.48% to $286,790. New Jersey followed closely behind with a 12.55% increase to $282,714.
The salary needed to live comfortably for an adult jumped nearly 10% in Montana. Montana saw the highest annual increase in income needed for an adult, with a 9.57% increase to $92,851. The income needed for families had a similarly abrupt change, jumping 11.14% to $234,957 – third-highest studywide.

Meanwhile, here are the top 10 states where the salary needed to live is the lowest.

END

LOS ANGELES

Why Some LA Biz Owners Want To Leave Because Of The Riots, But Can’t

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2025 – 06:55 AM

As unrest once again disrupts parts of Los Angeles, many small business owners are asking a painful question: should we leave California?

For some, the answer is yes. But for a growing number, the real problem is they can’t.

According to a February 2024 survey of 80,000 small business owners by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, only 13% of California small businesses say they’re happy with their current location — nearly 40% lower than the national average. Nationally, almost half (47.7%) of business owners report being satisfied and having no plans to relocate.

In California, however, 67% say they are either planning a move (10%), considering one (30%), or feel stuck — wanting to move but unable to afford it (27%).

“Nearly a third of small businesses feel they’re stuck in Hotel California, where they can check out anytime they like, but they can never leave,” said RedBalloon CEO Andrew Crapuchettes. “California used to be the engine of small businesses in America, but those still California dreaming are finding it’s become a nightmare – 67% want to escape.”

The reasons behind this discontent are no mystery. Among California business owners, 86.4% cite high taxes as a driving factor, while 84.9% blame anti-business government policies. Nationally, these same issues rank high, but not nearly to the same extent — 64.5% and 59.4%, respectively.

Still, as businesses clean up broken glass and rebuild yet again, relocation is often a luxury. Many can’t sell their property at a decent price, relocate employees, or find affordable alternatives elsewhere. For the 27% who say they feel “trapped,” economic and logistical realities outweigh the dream of a more business-friendly home.

And so, many stay — not because they want to, but because they have to.

The weather may still be nice, but for California’s small business owners, the climate is anything but.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON/

USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..

KING NEWS

The King Report June 18, 2025 Issue 7516

Independent View of the News

After Trump told Iranians to immediately evacuate Tehran, DJT exited the G-7 in Canada and ordered his NSC to assemble in the Situation Room.

Reports surfaced that the US was attacking Iran. This was false. CBS debunked a report that Trump had returned to the WH because a ceasefire was on the table. Then why evacuate Tehran?

@realDonaldTrump: Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong…

Trump team proposes Iran talks this week on nuclear deal and ceasefire – Axios

@realDonaldTrump Tuesday: I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table – Would have saved a lot of lives!!!

@RapidResponse47: REPORTER: “What are you looking for here?” @POTUS: “An end. A real end. Not a ceasefire — an end.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1934917749391687794

Fox reported that Iran has secret nuclear sites, which were just discovered.

NYT: Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb
President Trump is weighing a critical decision in the four-day-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by American B-2 bombers, can reach…
    The urgency appeared to be rising. The White House announced late on Monday that Mr. Trump was leaving the Group of 7 summit early because of the situation in the Middle East…
    There is only one weapon for the job, experts contend. It is called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or the GBU-57, and it weighs so much — 30,000 pounds — that it can be lifted only by a B-2 bomber. Israel does not own either the weapon or the bomber needed to get it aloft and over target…
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/us/politics/trump-iran-diplomacy-conflict.html

There is another troubling possibility: Israel or the US has discovered that Iran has nukes now.

Israel’s success has de-neutered EU leaders. Germany’s Chancellor Merz: If Iran does not back down, then complete destruction of the Iranian nuclear program is on the agenda, which Israel cannot achieve alone.

@realDonaldTrump: We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA. 11:55 ET

Vance says Trump may ‘take further action to end Iranian enrichment’ but acknowledges concerns about ‘foreign entanglement’ https://trib.al/nSyPKAs

USS Nimitz carrier strike group sailing toward Middle East ahead of schedule
https://www.foxnews.com/world/uss-nimitz-carrier-strike-group-sailing-toward-middle-east-ahead-schedule-us-official-says

Trump: We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter! 12:19 ET

Trump: UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! 12:22 ET

Trump is seriously considering joining the war on Iran and launching a strike against its nuclear facilities – Axios

US economic data released on Tuesday was soft.

May Retail Sales -0.9% m/m, -0.6% expected; April to -0.1% from +0.1%
Ex-Autos -0.3%, +0.3% exp; April to 0.0% from 0.1%
Ex-Autos & Gas -0.1%, 0.3% consensus; April to 0.1% from 0.2%   https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

May Import Prices Index 0.0% m/m & 0.2% y/y -0.2% m/m & 0.0% y/y exp; ex-Petro 0.2%, 0.1% exp
Export Price Index -0.9% m/m & 1.7% y/y, -0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y exp.

May Industrial Production -0.2% m/m, 0.0% expected; April to 0.1% from 0.0%; Mfg. Production 0.1% m/m as exp, Capacity Utilization 77.4%, 77.7% consensus
April Business Inventories 0.0% m/m as expected
June NAHB Housing Market Index 32, 36 expected – lowest since 12/22

In early trading on Tuesday, bonds rallied modestly while stocks fell modestly. Oil and gasoline rallied sharply; gold fell $20.00 while silver and the dollar rallied robustly.

ESUs (September ‘U’ is now the front month) opened modestly high on Monday night but quickly tumbled lower. After hitting 6051.75 near 20:00 ET, ESUs did an A-B-C rebound to 6076.75 at 22:57 ET. They then traded sideways until they broke lower at the 3:00 ET European opening.

After hitting a daily low of 6045.00 at 6:43 ET, ESUs stair stepped higher in lethargic trading until Trump’s above remarks appeared. Then, this appeared:

Iran’s Senior Army Commander Calls on Israelis to Evacuate Haifa and Tel Aviv Immediately – Mehr News Agency 13:10 ET

ESUs then fell from 6081.25 at 11:12 ET to 6030.25 at 14:44 ET. As ESUs fell, USUs rallied, hitting +1 5/32 at 14:30 ET. With reports that Trump’s NSC meeting had concluded and no official news, ESUs meandered up to 6050.00 at 15:50 ET on a lame manipulation. ESUs slid to 6037.00 at 16:00 ET; someone then manipulated ESUs to 6044.50 at 16:01 ET. ESUs slid to 6033.75 at 16:19 ET.

WaPo: Trump officials reverse guidance exempting farms, hotels from immigration raids
ICE agents have been told to continue conducting enforcement operations at agricultural businesses despite concerns about negative effects on the food industry…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump-officials-reverse-guidance-exempting-farms-hotels-from-immigration-raids/ar-AA1GQhe7

@Barchart: Walmart has now traded red for 9 consecutive days, its longest losing streak since August 2011 https://t.co/81xmgZKX2k

@NateGeraci: “The 47-point gap in partisan optimism regarding the stock market’s trajectory is the largest divide observed in Gallup data provided to The Wall Street Journal going back to 2001.”
Remember… don’t mix politics w/ portfolios. via @GunjanJS https://t.co/ZflrTYjMSD

Positive aspects of previous session
The dollar rallied sharply.

Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks sank while USUs soared on Iran and weak US economic data.

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What happens if the Islamic Regime of Iran falls?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5993.59
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6023.25; 5974.80

FBI asked spy agencies to destroy intel on alleged China plot to aid Joe Biden in 2020 election
https://justthenews.com/government/security/fbi-asked-spy-agencies-destroy-intel-alleged-china-plot-aid-joe-biden-2020

FBI gives Congress intel on alleged Chinese plot to create fake mail-in ballots in 2020
The intelligence source claimed the plot was specifically designed to benefit Biden, officials said…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbi-gives-congress-intel-alleged-chinese-plot-create-fake-mail

GOP Sen. @MarshaBlackburn: A shocking FBI report revealed an alleged Chinese plot to mass produce fake driver’s licenses to fabricate mail-in ballots for Biden in 2020. Election integrity is non-negotiable. The American people deserve answers, and we won’t settle for anything less than total transparency.

@charliebilello: The most absurd number in CPI?  According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 18% over the last 5 years...   https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1935061271331611122

According to the BLS, there are 1,564,000 salaried farm workers.  https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat15.htm
40% are reportedly illegal immigrants.

Iranian State TV: “Tonight, a great surprise will occur, one that the world will remember for centuries.”

NYT: Iran has prepared missiles and other military equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East should the United States join Israel’s war… If the United States joins the Israeli campaign and strikes Fordo, a key Iranian nuclear facility, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia will almost certainly resume striking ships in the Red Sea… pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria would probably try to attack U.S. bases there….  https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/iran-israel-us-bases.html

US markets are closed on Thursday for Juneteenth Day.

Today is Fed Day and Weird Wednesday. The market expects no change in Fed policy but is hoping for more guidance that what it has provided for the past several months. Unless the Fed cuts rates, there should be little or no Fed effect today.

Iran developments should continue to impact the markets. It is prudent to wait and watch. With the US markets closed tomorrow for Juneteenth, most traders will want to be flat or hedged by closing time.

ESUs are -15.75; NQUs are -72.00; and USUs are -3/32 at 19:00 ET.

Expected Economic Data: May Housing Starts 1.35m, Permits 1.425m; Initial Jobless Claims 245k, Continuing Claims 1.94m; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET; Powell Presser 14:30 ET

S&P Index 50-day MA: 5699; 100-day MA: 5771; 150-day MA: 5841; 200-day MA: 5811
DJIA 50-day MA: 41,284; 100-day MA: 42,193; 150-day MA: 42,662; 200-day MA: 42,514
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index (5982.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5807.26 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5315.75 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5922.48 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5964.59 triggers a sell signal

For the past several days, reporters in need of remedial reading have reported that DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified to Congress that Iran is NOT trying to attain nuclear weapons. This is a blatant lie.

@nicksortor: DNI Tulsi Gabbard CONFIRMS she and President Trump are “on the same page” when it comes to Iran’s nuclear timeline… “President Trump was saying the same thing that I said in my annual threat assessment back in March. Unfortunately, too many people in the media don’t care to actually read what I said,” Tulsi said to CNN…
    Here is Tulsi’s FULL testimony on her ODNI threat assessment regarding Iran. Read it for yourself.
https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1935002204802273647

Border czar Tom Homan: “When they double down, we triple down! So, the Men and Women of ICE are going to keep standing up, they’re going to keep doing the job…”

@libsoftiktok: Trump asked on if he has called Tim Walz about the Minnesota shooting: “I think The Governor of Minnesota is so whacked out. I’m not calling him, why would I call him?… The guy doesn’t have a clue, he’s a mess. I could be nice and call him, but why waste time?”
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1934982832612393254

For all those that ask, ‘what happens if the US attacks Iran nuclear facilities?’ We ask, “What happens if the US does NOT obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities?”

“Woe to those who call evil good and good evil.” – Isaiah 5:20

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Federal Judge Upholds Trump Admin’s $400 Million Freeze On Columbia University Funding

Tuesday, Jun 17, 2025 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has upheld the Trump administration’s suspension of more than $400 million in federal funding to Columbia University.

On Monday, Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil of the Southern District of New York dismissed a lawsuit brought by the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), two labor unions representing the Columbia faculty. She ruled that the unions had no standing to sue in the first place.

Only the university could challenge the funding freeze, the judge said.

“Our democracy cannot very well function if individual judges issue extraordinary relief to every plaintiff who clamors to object to executive action. Neither the executive branch nor the legislature ever awarded the grants and contracts at issue to plaintiffs or any of their members,” Vyskocil wrote in her opinion.

In March, the Trump administration said it was going to cancel Columbia’s federal grants, accusing the university of failing to address persistent harassment of Jewish students.

In the months of intense protests over Israel’s military actions in Gaza after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack, Columbia became a focal point of campus demonstrations nationwide, with an encampment on its campus lasting more than 100 days before police were called in to break it down.

“Universities must comply with all federal anti-discrimination laws if they are going to receive federal funding,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said at that time.

“For too long, Columbia has abandoned that obligation to Jewish students studying on its campus.”

The administration later issued a list of demands to Columbia’s interim president, Katrina Armstrong, warning that federal funding would not be restored unless the university achieved “immediate compliance.”

The demands covered both academic and campus policy reforms, including banning masks at protests, overhauling disciplinary procedures, expanding the campus police force with the authority to make arrests, and subjecting the university’s Middle East Studies program to a third-party review.

Armstrong agreed to many of the conditions before stepping down from her role. The university did not place the Middle East, South Asian, and African Studies Department into “academic receivership” for at least five years, as the Trump administration demanded, but instead pledged to appoint a new senior vice provost to oversee those academic programs. It also announced additional, voluntary changes, such as advancing its satellite campus in Tel Aviv, Israel.

McMahon later described Columbia as being “on the right track” toward restoring funding, though no final decision has been announced.

In their lawsuit filed on March 26, the AAUP and AFT alleged that the administration was using a “coercive tactic” that infringes on institutional autonomy and jeopardizes important scientific research. They sought a court order to lift the freeze and to block the administration from terminating or pausing active federal grants and contracts with the university.

Columbia University currently holds more than $5 billion in federal grant commitments, according to the departments of Education, Justice, and Health and Human Services.

The AAUP criticized Monday’s ruling and vowed to appeal.

“This is a disappointing ruling, but by no means the end of the fight,” AAUP President Todd Wolfson said in a statement to multiple media outlets. “Ultimately, lifesaving research, basic civil liberties, and higher education in communities across the country are all on the line. Faculty, students, and the American public will not stand for it. We will continue to fight back.”

GREG HUNTER