JUNE 24/OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK COMMENCES AND AS USUAL A RAID: GOLD CLOSED DOWN %58.05 TO $33121.10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37 TO $35.85//PLATINUM BUCKED THE TREND AGAIN CLOSING UP $24.15 TO $1317.50 WITH PALLADIUM DOWN $16.00 TO $1062.00..GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALSDAIR MACLEOD/GOOD COMMENTARY TONIGHT ON FRANCE’S PROBLEMS WITH MIGRANTS//CEASFIRE WITH IRAN AND ISRAEL HOLDS//CHRONOLOGICAL EVENTS TODAY ON THE FIGHTING THERE//RUSSIA UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/ BEN PICTON REPORTS ON TODAY’S EVENTS//USA ECONOMIC NEWS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 5 905 C ADM 11 991 H CME 16
TOTAL: 16 16 MONTH TO DATE: 29,328
JPMORGAN STOPPED 0/16
JUNE
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024: 16 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 1600 OZ or 0.0476 TONNES
total notices so far: 29,328 contracts for 2,932,800 OR 91.222 tonnes)
FOR JUNE
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SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3363 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 16.815 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.37 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ///A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 480.685 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2712 CONTRACTS TO 180,604 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.18 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY HAVE THE PIERCING OF $34.40 TO 34.50 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2287 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A GOOD 425 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $36.22. . WE HAVE A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE WITH MONDAY NIGHT’S 591 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT STILL SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A GOOD 425 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 591 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TUESDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 2287 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.18.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH LAST WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY AS SILVER PRICE ROCKETED PAST THE $34.40 BARRIER! . THE PRICE OF SILVER FINISHED TRADING AT $36.56 AS WE WILL NOW HEAD FOR THE ALL TIME HIGH OF $50.00
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A HUGE 591 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.18) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF A FEW NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 2143 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. (PROBABLY LIQUIDATION OF SPREADER/AND TAS LIQUIDATION)
WE HAD A 425 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 9.90 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.835 MILLION OZ!!
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JUNE: 9.90 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = 16.835 MILLION OZ.
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A 425 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 425 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A SMALL 144 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 DAY(S), total 14,450 contracts: OR 72.250 MILLION OZ (903 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 72.250 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 72.250 MILLION OZ (NOTICE EFP ISSUANCE GETTING MUCH LARGER
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RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2712 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.18 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD 425 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 425 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 3 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND NOW JUNE: INITIAL 9.90 MILLION OZ PLUS 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = 16.835 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (591 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TODAY’S TRADING (MONDAY-TUESDAY TRADING) AND BEYOND.
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 798 OI CONTRACTS TO 440.905 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 2712 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (798 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $9,25 IN PRICE// MONDAY///.
LAST TWO MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH
/ WE HAD A $9.25 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1468 OI CONTRACTS (4.566 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE DURING THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF MAY, AND THROUGHOUT EACH AND EVERY DAY MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE JUNE CONTRACT MONTH….. A SMALLISH 62.534 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S 0 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 91.626 TONNES!!. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 670 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 440,905/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 180,604 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1468 CONTRACTS WITH 798 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 670 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1468 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 661 CONTRACTS
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(670) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 798 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1468 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) WEAK INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JUNE AT 62.524TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 91.636 TONNES./
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JUNE CONTRACT AT 91.636 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DESPITE HAVING 1)A $9.25 COMEX PRICE GAIN.. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 1468 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY BUT SMALLER FOR JUNE!
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (425 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 661 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 25,858 CONTRACTS OR 2,585,800 OZ OR 80.429 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1616 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 80.429 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 80.429 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.25% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 80.429 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2712 CONTRACTS OI TO 180,604 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 425 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 425 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 425 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2712 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2287 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.18 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.715 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
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ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.48 PTS OR 1.15%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 487.94 PTS OR 2.06%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 436.47 PTS OR 1.14% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.00%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1762 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1727/ Oil DOWN TO 66.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 69.28 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1762 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1727 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST GAINED BY A SMALL SIZED 798 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 440,905 OI WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.25 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (670 ). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION
THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR MAY WAS RECORDED AT 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE GETTING QUITE ANTSY OF GETTING ITS GOLD BACK.
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST FIVE MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED SO FAR!!
DETAILS ON JUNE COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1468 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF MAY, AND JUNE CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS SMALL AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 661 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , INITIAL STANDING IS RECORDED AT 62.534 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S 0.000 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 91.636 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FOR THE MONTH: 29.743 TONNES
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JUNE: 91.636 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 32+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 225 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 670 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 670 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 670 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
WE HAD :
ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL SIZED, 661 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL MAY AND JUNE
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!
STANDING LAST 6 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: INITITAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.00 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 90.636 TONNES
THIS IS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD!!
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING/JUNE CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $9.25/ /) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////MONDAY AS THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE THE MAGIC $3,400 BARRIER AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JUNE TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
ANALYSIS JUNE DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JUNE COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 14.302 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE FIRST RECORDED AT 62.534 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/MAY 30. TO THIS WE ADD MONDAY NIGHT’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING FOR JUNE GOLD REMAINS AT 91.636
ALL OF THIS QUITE SMALL STANDING FOR JUNE WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.25
WE HAD A HUGE 5745 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1468 CONTRACTS OR 146800 0Z (4.566 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
29,328 notices 2,932,800 oz 91.222 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 1 customer entry
1 ENTRY
i) Stonex: 2218.419 oz (69 kilobars)
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withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) Manfra 60,545.141 OZ oz
ii) JPMorgan 48,226.500 oz 1500 kilobars
total withdrawal 108,771.641 oz
3.383 tonnes
adjustments: 1//
Brinks dealer to customer: 64,334.150 oz
2000 kilobars
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE STANDS AT 149 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 708 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 708 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT 62.534 TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 91.636 TONNES
JULY GAINED 181 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 6857
AUGUST GAINED 672 CONTRACTS UP TO 332,177
We had 16 contracts filed for today representing 1600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 5 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 16 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (29,328 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (149 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,946,100 OZ OR 91.636 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 91.636 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (29,328 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JUNE (xxx OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz) which equals 2,946,100 OZ OR 91.636 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 91.636 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.: 91.636 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..JUNE DID NOT FOLLOW FEB AND APRIL’S LEAD!!
i) Out of HSBC 311,020.000 oz ii) Out of Loomis 305,655.790 oz
total withdrawal 616,675.030 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1
a) JPMorgan total removal eligible acct 42,478.320 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 214.820million oz/498.310 oz million or 43.34%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 181.882 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 498.310 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2025 OI: 8 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 60 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 64 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP IN ORDER TO TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JULY LOST 19,590 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 52,240
AUGUST GAINED 168 CONTRACTS TO 1130
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 64 or 320,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 119,028 huge//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3363 X5,000 oz = 16.815 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (8) AND the number of notices served upon today (4 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2025 contract month: (3363) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE(8) minus number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE contract month equating to 16.835 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 16.835 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of JUNE.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 181.882million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
JUNE 2 WITH GOLD UP $80.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD UP $22.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.71 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.61 TONNES
MAY 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.46 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD UP $69.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.89TONNES
MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.88 TONNES
MAY 21 WITH GOLD UP $28.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.60 TONNES
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.03 TONNES
MAY 19 WITH GOLD UP $46.65 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.73 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.62 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $38.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.53 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.92 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.51 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 957.40 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $1.58/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.773 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.38/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.375 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.091 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.875 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.65/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.784 MILLION OZ
MAY 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.17/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.819 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.24/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 0.04/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.193 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.682 MILLION OZ OUT OF SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.102 MILLION OZ
GDP is only the sum total of credit deployed in qualifying activities. It is not to be confused with progress, which is what we all think of when talking of growth or recession. Progress cannot be measured. Furthermore, “growth” is easily manipulated by increasing government spending, which is why governments appear to be successful in managing economic outcomes.
Anyone looking at the FRED chart below should smell a rat. Under our dear leaders’ guidance, GDP continues to grow through thick and thin with hardly an interruption
.But when you bear in mind that this elysian effect includes the bulk of the federal government’s debt creation which has just crossed the $37 trillion barrier, even more than the nominal GDP total, we are left wondering how much of this stimulus has been productive. The answer is not very much, because the definition of economic activity must exclude government intervention: at least that is according to pre-Keynesian classical definitions.
Most of GDP growth is down to currency debasement, a continuing feature of central banking which led to a run on the Fed’s gold reserves in the great depression, and a post-war run under the Bretton Woods system which was finally abandoned in 1971.
The chart below shows nominal US GDP, GDP adjusted by the consumer price index, and also by the gold exchange rate.
From 1947 to 2024, the increase in nominal GDP was 117 times. Adjusted by the CPI it increased 8.3 times, and by gold only 1.7 times. Gold is relevant because it is real legal money despite US government propaganda denouncing it, proved to have relatively constant purchasing power over time.
We should know that the CPI adjustment underestimates the dollar’s debasement, due to adjustments to price inputs. And we should also note that gold’s value has been routinely suppressed and manipulated by governments in a policy of promoting the dollar as the new monetary standard. For this reason, it appears more volatile.
In the post-war period, the gold/dollar ratio was artificially maintained by the US selling down its gold reserves, which in 1948 were 21,682 tonnes, nearly 72% of all central bank reserves at that time, and about 43% of all above-ground gold stocks. By 1971, when President Nixon finally ended the $35 peg all that remained was 9,070 tonnes, less than 25% of central bank reserves and only 12% of all above-ground stocks. This deterioration in gold reserves was deemed unsustainable.
Before 1971, the maintenance of the gold peg under the Bretton Woods Agreement was what stabilised commodity and consumer prices. Between 1947 and 1971, the Fed’s base money had doubled. Following Bretton Wood’s suspension, the brakes were let off with base money increasing ten-fold by today. Consequently, nominal GDP in dollars is radically different from that expressed in gold.
The situation in the UK is similar to that of the US. This time, in the chart below we go back over 100 years.
In this case, nominal GDP has increased 1,034 times between 1900—2016. Measured in gold it has increase only 4.7 times.
So, what does a gold-adjusted GDP growth tell us?
We know that GDP does not measure progress, only the deployment of credit. But we also know that our standards of living have improved radically over time, far more than a gold-adjusted measure of GDP would suggest. It is further evidence that GDP, however presented is no guide to economic development. That depends entirely on how the volume of credit which makes up GDP is used.
It is the misrepresentation of GDP which has led governments into debt traps today. Government spending enhances it. Unfettered by gold standards, governments are encouraged to spend beyond their means. In the US, politicians feel no need for spending restraint. Under its socialist administration, the UK economy is being driven even more rapidly towards a funding crisis.
Virtually the entire G7 membership is in a similar position: Japan, France, Italy, Canada, and now even Germany in addition to the two Anglo-Saxons. Increasing gold exchange rates against all their currencies at a time of global economic stagnation tell us that the decline in the real values of GDP is accelerating. This is because in terms of purchasing power, gold is the relevant constant and it is fiat currencies which are declining.
It is the declining value of fiat currencies which makes estimates of growth in GDP doubly meaningless. Not only does GDP not represent economic progress, but increases in government spending corrupt its statistical value even more.
What is GDP good for?
GDP is useful for government treasury departments in their assessment of tax revenue potential. If you know what GDP is, you can assess potential income, sales, and corporate taxes. It explains why governments are keen to promote GDP: the higher it is, the greater the revenue potential appears to be. The government’s creditors are also keen to know what it is, so as to gauge the affordability of a government’s debt.
This knowledge is valuable to bondholders because governments never pay interest on debt in their own currencies, merely rolling it up with the principal. GDP, particularly the private sector element, must increase sufficiently to cover the interest on the debt.
A declining GDP threatens affordability, leading to a greater risk of default which means that bond yields will rise with the risk. It is the classic debt trap. This is why bond yields remain high and the prospect of lower dollar interest rates is continually deferred.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDRE MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5. COMMODITY REPORT…SILVER
Silver Price Shows What Government Has Done To Our Money
The President brags that per gallon prices have dropped to $1.99 in some places.
After paying over $4.00 here in Las Vegas, I wonder where he is talking about. He ran on bringing down prices at the pump, saying “drill baby drill” constantly at his rallies.
But, in real terms gas prices have gone down.
A line from a Wall Street Journal piece illustrates the point.
“Silver’s rally has made it worth the effort to sift through coin jars looking for old dimes, quarters and half dollars. The melt value of 25-cent coins minted from before 1965, when they were made of silver, is more than $6.50.”
I’m old enough to remember 25-cent gas.
And, someone pumped the gas for you checked your oil and the air pressure in your tires.
During lunch with an old friend, he told me his kids don’t know what cash is, let alone pre-1965 quarters.
No wonder monetary matters don’t really matter to Americans, especially young folk.
No one seems concerned about the constant devaluation of the dollar.
High prices they blame on whoever is president or corporate greed. The idea that the problem is the constant creation of more money escapes them.
As Ludwig von Mises wrote, “What people today call inflation is not inflation, i.e., the increase in the quantity of money and money substitutes, but the general rise in commodity prices and wage rates which is the inevitable consequence of inflation. This semantic innovation is by no means harmless.”
The WSJ reports of people selling silver and some that are buying.
“Daniel Herzner, who owns businesses that buy and sell estate jewelry in White Plains, N.Y., said his phone is ringing frequently with customers eager to sell jewelry and flatware that they inherited or no longer need.”
“They’d rather turn it into cash,” he
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.48 PTS OR 1.15%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 487.94 PTS OR 2.06%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 436.47 PTS OR 1.14% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.00%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1762 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1727/ Oil DOWN TO 66.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 69.28 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1762 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1727 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
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YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1762 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1727 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 48.38 PTS OR 1.15%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 487.94 PTS OR 2.06%
2. Nikkei closed UP 436.47 PTS OR 1.14%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 97.64/ EURO RISES TO 1.1599 UP 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.4270//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 145.10…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5530/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.519 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.216%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.299
3j Gold at $3320.75 Silver at: 36.09 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 24 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.74
3m oil (WTI) into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 145.10// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.4270% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8110 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9408 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.354 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.895 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.838 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.64
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5420 UP 5 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.277 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.863 DOWN 3 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Jump, Oil And Dollar Dump As Markets Ignore Ceasefire Violations
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 08:33 AM
US equity futures jumped, rapidly approaching all time highs, while oil and the dollar tumbled on hopes the worst is over in the middle east, even as traders parse rapidly-changing headlines on Iran where the fragile ceasefire with Iran announced by President Donald Trump was promptly violated by both sides, sparking several angry outbursts by Trump this morning, starting with this one…
ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
… followed by this:
ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
… and Trump even dropped the F-bomb in frustration.
In any case, for now markets are giving the lack of a ceasefire the benefit of the doubt – after all Trump probably already printed hats commemorating the end of the “12 Day War“, and as of 8:00am, S&P futures rose 0.8%, signaling a second day of gains, while Nasdaq 100 futures surged 1%, with all Mag7 stocks higher premarket led again by TSLA with semis and cyclicals ex-energy also higher. European stocks and Asian stocks also advanced. has plunged 15% from Monday’s intraday high, sliding an additional 5.6% on Tuesday as it fell below the level of June 12, the day before Israel began attacking Iran’s nuclear sites. The benchmark later pared some losses to trade above $69 a barrel after Israel reported a missile launch from Iran and instructed its military to respond; but for the most part oil has completely shrugged off reports that the ceasefire is obviously being violated. The dollar headed for its biggest drop since the outbreak of the conflict. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed, as investors’ awaited the first day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before lawmakers on Tuesday (at 10am ET) which is adding fuel to the rally. The yield curve is twisting steeper as USD decline continues. Cmdtys are lower, dragged by Energy, but precious metals are under pressure. Today’s macro data focus is on housing prices, Consumer Confidence, and regional Fed activity indicators. Barring another escalation in the Middle East, focus will shift back to the Fed, with six speakers today including Powell.
In premarket trading,Mag7 stocks are all higher alongside index futures (Tesla +2.2%, Amazon +1.5%, Alphabet +1.2%, Apple +1.2%, Nvidia +0.9%, Meta +0.7%, Microsoft +0.6%). Tesla (TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent 7 stocks in premarket trading on Tuesday, rising 2.2%, after launching its much-anticipated driverless taxi service to a handful of riders. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Airline stocks around the world surged after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, spurring optimism over a potential easing of airspace disruptions in the Middle East.
Circle Internet Group Inc. shares (CRCL) fell 1.9% in premarket trading after the stablecoin issuer was initiated at Compass Point Research & Trading with a recommendation of neutral as competition is expected to increase after US stablecoin legislation was passed.
CommScope shares (COMM) are up 2.2% in premarket trading, after Deutsche Bank added the communications equipment company to its catalyst call buy list.
Crypto-linked stocks are rising on Tuesday with Bitcoin gaining as much as 2.2% amid broader market gains after Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire.
Energy stocks fall and airlines rise after a ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump pointed to a potential reduction of tensions in the Middle East. Iran has yet to confirm publicly that it agreed to the ceasefire.
Lyft shares (LYFT) rise as much as 5.4% in premarket trading on Tuesday as TD Cowen raised to buy from hold citing multiple growth levers.
Mastercard (MA +2.7%) deepens its partnership with Fiserv (FI +4.4%) to integrate its new FIUSD token across a range of Mastercard products and services, expanding stablecoin adoption and utility for their shared customers around the world.
NextDecade Corp. (NEXT) gains 4.6% premarket after TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised the recommendation to buy from hold, citing the expectation of final investment decisions in favor of two new liquefaction trains at the Rio Grande liqufied natural gas project in Texas.
Teladoc Health shares (TDOC) rise 5.2% in premarket trading on Tuesday, putting stock on track to extend gains after Citron Research said the market is underestimating the value of the virtual health-care platform.
Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) rose 3.5% on Tuesday as it’s set to begin offering its customers driverless Waymo rides in Atlanta, making it the second market, after Austin, where the two companies are teaming up instead of competing against each other.
In corporate news, Alphabet’s Google is set to face more scrutiny from the UK’s antitrust watchdog over its online search and advertising business. Starbucks said it’s not currently considering a full sale of its China business, disputing a report from Caixin Global that had sent the shares higher in late trading on Monday.
The rapid-fire sequence of events followed a turbulent stretch in financial markets, which have been roiled for nearly two weeks by fears of an escalating conflict. Volatility was particularly high in oil, as concerns over supply and shipping disruptions had pushed Brent crude to nearly $80 a barrel. However, the subsequent collapse in the price of Brent below $70 helped the narrative on inflation risk and, together with equity positioning that suggests investors are still on the sidelines, could create upside potential. Barring another escalation in the Middle East, focus will shift back to the Fed, with six speakers today including Powell.
“If the ceasefire holds – and there is no guarantee that it will – it will undoubtedly be greeted positively by markets as it will at the margin reduce uncertainty,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management in Switzerland. Lower oil prices will reduce inflationary pressure and “also help support consumption trends and hence growth overall.”
The greenback slipped 0.4% against a basket of currencies as demand to hedge against higher oil prices receded.
“The US dollar was one of the key beneficiaries of the hostilities so it is now rolling over,” said Sean Callow, a senior analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. “Investors have been very keen to draw a line under the Israel-Iran conflict, choosing to leave aside any concerns over the path Iran might choose beyond the very short term.”
Elsewhere, Powell is due to testify before two committees in Washington this week amid ongoing pressure from Trump who said interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower.” Further geopolitical headlines might come from a two day NATO summit starting today in the Netherlands.
“We’re going to go back to the bigger picture, and that is to talk about tariffs and growth,” Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., told Bloomberg TV. “To believe that tariffs are fully digested and that inflation pickup will not happen whatsoever, i think that is premature.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 1.4%, lifted by airline shares, as President Donald Trump said a ceasefire was in place between Iran and Israel, easing worries about a prolonged conflict. Energy and utility sectors are the only two in the red. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
Energy stocks fall in European trading while airlines rise after US President Donald Trump said a ceasefire is now in place between Iran and Israel.
AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 1.8% after the drugmaker’s Datroway medicine received US approval for the treatment of some patients with lung cancer.
Melexis shares rise as much as 7.9% after it was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley as a likely beneficiary of a cyclical recovery in autos, and named as top pick in European semiconductor small caps.
DKSH gains as much as 4.9% after the Swiss distribution company receives a new buy rating from Berenberg, which hails its market-leading position in the Asia-Pacific region.
Lindt shares fall as much as 4.4% after BofA downgraded the chocolate maker to neutral from buy, saying that a strong 1H is already priced in and the valuation is looking stretched.
OVH Groupe slumps as much as 17% after the cloud computing company releases its third-quarter results. Analysts note high expectations heading into the print following strong share-price advance year-to-date.
Shares of precious metals miners drop as gold falls on ebbing haven demand after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.5% to a one-week low. The kiwi dollar is leading gains against the greenback, rising 1%.
In rates, treasuries mixed with the yield curve steeper in early US session. US front-end yields are more than 3bp lower on the day with long-end tenors little changed, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by 2bp-3bp, extending Monday’s move. 5s30s spread topped at 99.98bp, approaching year’s high 100.9bp, reached May 22. the 10-year is flat at 4.35%, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 5bp and 1.5bp. European bond markets are broadly weaker on the day led by Germany, which announced plans to borrow about a fifth more than planned in the third quarter, spurring long-end-led selloff. Longer-dated bonds lead declines with German 30-year yields rising 10 bps to 3.06%. US 30-year borrowing costs also rise 2 bps to 4.90%. US shorter-dated yields fall. The Treasury auction cycle starts with $69 billion 2-year note sale at 1pm New York time and includes $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday. WI 2-year yield near 3.82% is ~13.5bp richer thank last month’s, which stopped through by 1bp
In commodities, Brent crude futures fall over 3% to $69 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran had gone into effect. Oil prices pared losses briefly after Israel has accused Iran of breaching the ceasefire, while Tehran denied firing missiles at Israel after truce. Spot gold falls $49 to around $3,319/oz, and together with oil, was back below levels before the Israeli strike on Iran. Bitcoin rises 1.6% and above $105,000.
The US economic data slate includes June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity and 1Q current account balance (8:30am), April FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home prices (9am), June Richmond Fed business conditions and consumer confidence (10am). Fed speakers include Hammack (9:15am), Powell (10am), Williams (12:30pm), Kashkari (1:45pm), Collins (2pm), Barr (4pm) and Schmid (8:15pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.8%
Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
Russell 2000 mini +1.1%
Stoxx Europe 600 +1.4%
DAX +2.2%
CAC 40 +1.4%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.36%
VIX -1.7 points at 18.16
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.5% at 1202.68
euro +0.3% at $1.1608
WTI crude -3.3% at $66.27/barrel
Top overnight news
US equity futures bid higher after Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the truce, saying Israel had achieved its war goals. But within hours, the country accused Tehran of launching more missiles, a charge that Iran denied. BBG
Trump said interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower” ahead of Jerome Powell’s testimony before a House committee. The Fed chair is expected to defend holding rates until at least September. He appears before the Senate tomorrow. BBG
Germany will borrow about a fifth more than planned in the coming months to fund a surge in spending, while a deal to secure a €46 billion ($53 billion) package of tax breaks highlighted how debt needs are set to grow. BBG
China’s advantages in developing artificial intelligence are about to unleash a wave of innovation that will generate more than 100 DeepSeek-like breakthroughs in the coming 18 months, according to a former top official. The new software products “will fundamentally change the nature and the tech nature of the whole Chinese economy,” Zhu Min, who was previously a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said during the World Economic Forum in Tianjin on Tuesday. BBG
The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China’s yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows. RTRS
“Big Banks are worried [US] President Trump could turn the power of the federal government against them with an executive order on “debanking.””, via WSJ
The PBOC set the strongest yuan fixing since November as the dollar fell. BBG
JGB futures slid after a weaker-than-expected 20-year debt auction, Japan’s first since trimming its bond sales plans last week. BBG
Europe signals it could soften digital rules aimed at American tech giants for the first time as it seeks relief from Trump’s impending trade tariffs. Politico
ECB’s Villeroy says the central bank can still cut rates despite recent geopolitical-driven volatility in oil markets. FT
Fed’s Bostic sees economic growth slowing to 1.1% this year, inflation rising to 2.9%; no need to cut rates now, sees single 25bps reduction late this year.
House GOP leaders were still unsure whether they would cancel the July 4 recess to pass the mega bill, depending on whether the Senate could clear the bill by the weekend as planned. The decision depended on what changes the Senate made and whether the House would need to alter the bill: Politico
US Senate Majority Leader Thune said House will ultimately accept what the Senate passes, according to three senators in the room: Punchbowl.
US President Trump posted “Members of Congress are united in their commitment to deliver the One Big Beautiful Bill “
NHTSA seeks information from Tesla (TSLA) after Robotaxi debut, with regards to issues seen in online videos. Tesla (TSLA) is sued by the estates of three people killed in a September 2024 crash in Model S with autopilot, according to a court filing: BBG
Starbucks (SBUX), when asked to comment on media report, says it is not currently considering a full sale of its China operation. Earlier, it was reported Starbucks (SBUX) is reportedly mulling full sale of China business, according to Caixin.
Iran/Israel
US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the “ceasefire is now in effect”.
At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.
Trade/Tariffs
Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri.
The EU said it would not give up decision‑making power for a US trade deal, according to the WSJ citing European Commission President von der Leyen.
US and South Korean trade ministers reaffirmed commitment to reaching a tariff deal early, according to the South Korean ministry.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded firmer across the board with the region coat-tailing gains from Wall Street, which initially stemmed from Iran’s “symbolic” strike on a US base in Qatar—de-escalatory in nature given the clear effort to minimise casualties and collateral damage. Sentiment was further boosted at the resumption of futures trading after US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although the Iranian Foreign Minister later clarified that there was no “agreement”, but Iran would stop attacking if Israel also halts. ASX 200 was bolstered by most sectors, although energy producers and gold miners bore the brunt of the slide in oil and gold. Nikkei 225 gains and tested the 39k mark to the upside amid broader market optimism, although gains were somewhat capped by gradual JPY strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broader tone across the market amid optimism surrounding the Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside the step-down in tensions with the US.
Top Asian News
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan would hold its Upper House election on July 20th, according to Reuters.
Japan’s finance ministry said top foreign exchange diplomat Atsushi Mimura would be reappointed for his second year, as he remained involved in US trade talks, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected 406.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
PBoC issues guidelines on financial support to boost consumption; to increase credit support for services consumption and key areas To increase support for the real economy. Support employment, boost income. Improve financial institutions capabilities, expand supply in consumer sector. Maintain ample liquidity. Strengthen financial services to help optimise consumption environment. Encourage issuance of consumption ETF. Support eligible enterprises in consumption industry chain to raise funds through listing. Support qualified consumer infrastructure companies in issuing REITs in the sector. To increase investment in key areas of services consumption.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.2%) opened entirely in the green and still trade at elevated levels, albeit have cooled a touch off peaks. Sentiment today has been boosted by US President Trump’s “complete and total ceasefire” announcement between Iran and Israel. Though this seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire. Complex continues to remain buoyed. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the positive risk-tone seen across markets. It comes as no surprise that Energy sits right at the foot of the pile, due to the latest slump in oil prices, following the latest ceasefire agreement. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, lifted by lower oil prices and with airliners generally buoyed by the broader sentiment.
Top European News
ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB could still proceed with rate cuts despite volatility in oil markets, according to the FT. He noted that inflation expectations remained moderate.
BoE’s Greene says underlying activity is weak, the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing. Worries about both demand and supply sides of the economy. Continue to think risks remain two sided but skewed to the downside on growth and to the upside on inflation. Given the period of elevated inflation through which we have just come, I think price stability is the key priority. A careful and gradual approach to removing monetary policy restrictiveness continues to be warranted. On the domestic front, noisy data means that it will take longer for me to take comfort from recent disinflationary trends. On the global front, there are a number of key events playing out between now and our next meeting, including the deadline for the pause on so-called “reciprocal tariffs” from the US, the potential passage of a budget in the US and the unfolding of events in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that the uncertainty from these events – and subsequent developments – will be resolved any time soon (in reference to global points of uncertainty, i.e. tariffs, geopols). Still expect trade policy to have a net disinflationary impact on the UK, but it may be muted relative to my expectations in May, when it was a factor in my decision to cut Bank Rate. The risk that our near-term plateau in inflation feeds through into second round effects is skewed to the upside.
UK Grocery Inflation 4.7% in the four weeks to June 15th (prev. 4.1% in May), via Kantar; “Grocery footfall hit a five-year high”, grocery volumes -0.4% Y/Y, the first such decline in 2025.
German Finance Ministry says it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3; includes EUR 15bln increase in borrowing on the capital market and EUR 4bln increase on the money market.
German Finance Agency says will “probably” continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4. Very good demand for long term bonds. 50yr Bond not planned for this year but internal conditions have been created.
FX
DXY is lower as the safe-haven premium continues to unwind for the USD. This comes after US President Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel; which was subsequently later acknowledged by Israel. However, Israel has since stated that Iran has breached the ceasefire. Accordingly, DXY has bounced from a 97.96 low and made its way back onto a 98.0 handle. Focus will be on Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT alongside US Consumer Confidence.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers. EUR/USD rose to a session peak at 1.1622, benefiting from the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but the move for the Single-Currency ran out of steam around the same time that Israel claimed that Iran had violated the ceasefire. In terms of domestic drivers, German IFO data saw a larger-than-expected increase for the Business climate metric. A slew of ECB speakers are due throughout the day. If upside in EUR/USD resumes, the YTD high from June 12th sits at 1.1631.
JPY is towards the top of the G10 leaderboard despite the unwind in the safe-haven premium seen elsewhere. JPY is instead benefitting from the pullback in oil prices, given that it is a net importer. Furthermore, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri. USD/JPY has pulled back markedly from Monday’s 148.03 peak and briefly slipped onto a 144 handle with a current session low at 144.95.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD and EUR as it benefits from the bump in risk sentiment. Fresh UK-specific macro drivers are lacking for today’s session. However, that could change given the busy BoE speaker slate which includes MPC members Bailey, Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Markets will be looking for any clues over the MPC’s future easing intentions given the three dovish dissenters at last week’s meeting, as well as a recent run of soft data points, including last week’s retail sales release.
Antipodeans are both are near the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the positive risk-tone. Fresh macro drivers for both have been on the light side. However, traders are mindful of Australian monthly CPI metrics overnight, which are expected to see the Weighted Y/Y CPI metric decline to 2.3% from 2.4%.
CAD firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers as the declines in oil prices caps gains for the currency. Attention today will be on domestic inflation data with Y/Y CPI for May set to hold steady at 1.7%, M/M is expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.1%. Note, at its most recent meeting (where it left rates unchanged), the Bank stated that further rate cuts may be warranted if tariff-related uncertainty spreads but inflationary cost pressures remain contained.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1656 vs exp. 7.1605 (prev. 7.1710); strongest CNY fix since Nov 8th 2024
Brazil’s central bank announced a spot dollar auction for 25 June, offering up to USD 1bln. It also announced a reverse FX swap auction on the same date, offering up to 20k contracts, according to a statement.
Fixed Income
USTs are lower by a handful ticks in what has been a choppy European morning so far. Overnight, benchmarks lost their haven allure given Trump’s Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement. Though this was short-lived, as Israel claimed Iran had broken the agreement by launching two missiles into the area – This sparked a modest bid in the USTs, taking it to 111-14. Pressure has since resumed more recently in tandem with Bunds, after the latest updates from the German Finance Agency (details below); USTs are currently trading just of lows at around 111-09+. For the US specifically, traders will eye US Consumer Confidence, 2yr supply and a slew of Fed speakers (incl. Fed Chair Powell).
Bunds tracked peers overnight and into the morning, on the aforementioned geopolitical updates. For the region itself, the German Finance Ministry said it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3. Thereafter, the agency said it will “probably” continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4; commentary which saw German paper slip to a fresh trough of 130.35. On the data front, German Ifo printed firmer than the prior across the board. German auction was okay, with decent demand but with a higher avg. yield – ultimately unable to stop the continued pressure in Bunds, which is now down to a 130.35 low. Ahead, a slew of ECB speakers.
Gilts are softer and trading marginally heavier than peers, potentially as a function of confirmation that the UK will pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% (prev. 2.3%) by 2035. In slight contrast to Bunds and USTs, Gilts have exactly matched Monday’s 92.25-93.21 confines, but are yet to breach them. A couple BoE speakers have already appeared today (and a few more still yet to come); BoE’s Greene said underlying activity is weak and the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing.
UK sells GBP 1.7bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.02x (prev. 3.36x) & real yield 1.386% (prev. 1.268%)
Commodities
Crude drilled lower overnight after the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire which came into effect at 05:00 BST. Benchmarks now trade lower by around -3.5%, with recent two-way action seen on reports of ceasefire violations. In an update which lifted benchmarks this morning, the IDF said that it had detected missiles launched from Iran, which the nation said it had intercepted. Far-Right Israeli Finance Minister, Smotrich said the ceasefire was violated, and that Tehran will tremble in response. More recently, downticks were seen across the complex after Iran denied firing missiles towards Israel, we now look for further clarity. Brent Aug’25 currently trades around USD 69.30/bbl.
Spot gold is firmly in the red, towards session lows and suffering from the positive mood after the US announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Base metals are trading firmer given the positive risk environment, alongside the softer USD.
Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil output seen at 35.7mln T in 2025, according to KazMunayGas.
Geopolitics:
Iran’s attack on US base in Qatar
Iran’s Foreign Minister said Tehran’s attack on a US air base in Qatar was in response to US aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, adding that Iran would be ready to respond again if the US took further action, according to Reuters.
US President Trump posted “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
Saudi Arabia stated that Iranian aggression against Qatar was unacceptable, could not be justified, and constituted a flagrant violation of international law, according to Al Arabiya.
US Vice President Vance said Iran is now incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because the US destroyed it, according to a Fox News interview.
Israel-Iran Ceasefire
US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, to begin at 00:00 EDT/05:00 BST, and lasting 12 hours. Trump stated that the war would be considered officially ended following this sequence. He praised both nations for ending what he termed “THE 12 DAY WAR.”
Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
US President Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel — which he announced — a wonderful day for the world, according to NBC News. He said he believes the ceasefire is unlimited and is going to go “forever.”
US President Trump and Vice President Vance discussed the Israel-Iran ceasefire proposal with Qatar’s emir after Iranian attacks on the airbase in Qatar on Monday, according to an official cited by Reuters. Qatar’s prime minister secured Iran’s agreement to the US ceasefire proposal in a call.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Iran during talks with US President Trump, on the condition that Iran stopped its attacks.
Israeli PM Netanyahu announced an agreement with Iran, noting that a comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached, according to Al Arabiya.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said there was no “agreement” on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations between Israel and Iran. He stated that Iran had consistently made clear it was Israel that launched the war, not Iran. However, if Israel halted its “illegal aggression” against the Iranian people by 4 a.m. Tehran time, Iran had no intention to continue its response. He added that the final decision on halting Iran’s military operations would be made later.
Israel attacked a “substantial percentage” of the targets approved as part of Operation Am Kalvi, according to i24 journalist Stein. An Israeli source told him: “We will complete the attacks on all the approved targets within a few days.” The source warned: “If we need to, we have a very large pool of targets. There are still many places to attack in Iran.”
Iranian officials made clear to the Trump administration that they would come back to the negotiating table and discuss their nuclear program on the condition that Israel stops bombing them, according to a senior US official via NYT.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei posted on X that “the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.”
US President Trump posted that Israel and Iran came to him “almost simultaneously” and said “PEACE!”, declaring that he knew the time was now. He said the world and the Middle East were the real winners. Trump added that both nations had much to gain and much to lose if they strayed from the road of righteousness and truth. He said the future for Israel and Iran was unlimited and filled with great promise.
Strikes since ceasefire announcement
Israeli strikes were continuous as markets headed into Iran’s proposed ceasefire time (01:30 BST) vs Trump’s guided time (05:00 BST). Iranian media reported that tonight marked the most intense defensive operation since the beginning of Israel’s attacks on Tehran, according to Iran International.
Iranian strikes continued after 01:30 BST, with several missiles fired towards Israel. Some reports noted an Iranian ballistic missile hitting an Israeli residential building, with three killed.
An Iraqi military official said an unknown drone targeted the Taji military base north of Baghdad, with no casualties reported, according to the state news agency. Al Hadath reported a drone attack on US bases in Iraq, stating that four Iraqi military bases housing US forces were targeted, and added that there were no human casualties resulting from the attacks on the Iraqi military bases.
The Israeli military said a fifth wave of missiles had been launched from Iran towards Israel.
There were reports of the Israeli assassination in Tehran of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sediqi.
“Drone strike on radar of air base in southern Iraq”, according to Sky News Arabia.
After the ceasefire came into effect
“Iran fires missiles towards Israel, violating ceasefire announced by Trump”, according to BNO Newsroom; ” Israeli army: We are monitoring a sixth Iranian attack on Israel”, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran fired the last round of missiles towards Israel before the ceasefire came into effect, according to Iran’s SNN.
US President Trump posts, at 06:09BST/01:09ET, “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”
At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
Israel claims Iran has violated the ceasefire agreement
Times of Israel journalist posts on X “The IDF says it has detected a new launch of ballistic missiles from Iran. Sirens are expected to sound in northern Israel in the coming minutes”.
Israel Finance Minster Smotrich says the ceasefire was violated, one launch was identified from Iran – “Tehran will tremble”, via N12 News.
“Two Iranian missiles were launched at northern Israel and intercepted according to an initial assessment”, via Horowitz on X.
Israel Defence Minister says he instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with high-intensity strikes against targets in the heart of Tehran.
“Iran denies firing missiles at Israel after ceasefire – state media”, via Soylu on X.
Iran Top Security Body says “Iran’s armed forces have no trust in the words of its enemies and will keep finger on trigger to respond to any further act of aggression”, via Fars News.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: 1Q Current Account Balance, est. -445.5b, prior -303.94b
9:00 am: Apr FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
10:00 am: Jun Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -10, prior -9
10:00 am: Jun Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 99.8, prior 98
Central Banks (All Times ET):
9:15 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Monetary Policy
10:00 am: Fed’s Powell to Deliver Semiannual Policy Testimony
12:30 pm: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
1:45 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Town Hall Event
2:00 pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks on State of Nation’s Housing
4:00 pm: Fed’s Barr Gives Welcoming Remarks
8:15 pm: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on the Economic Outlook
DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap
Despite all the fears over the weekend, over the last 12 hours we’ve seen a pretty remarkable de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The best scorecard of this has been the price of oil which now trades just below $70/bbl, having opened at just over $80/bbl early yesterday morning in Asia. Brent crude (-7.18%) posted its biggest daily decline since 2022 and is subsequently trading another -2.56% lower this morning at $69.65/bbl, close to the levels before Israel’s strikes against Iran on June 13. Easing geopolitical concerns helped the S&P 500 rebound +0.96%, with futures another +0.55% higher overnight. Easing inflation fears supported bonds, with Treasuries also benefitting from more dovish Fedspeak, more on which later.
To recap developments, shortly after yesterday’s European market close, Iran launched missiles at a US air base in Qatar, but with the attack being well telegraphed and Qatar suspending air traffic shortly before. Markets soon rallied as it became apparent that Iran’s retaliation did not involve energy targets and was likely seeking to avoid any escalatory spiral with US, with reporting that Iran had warned Qatar ahead of the strikes. Later in the US afternoon, Trump posted that there were no casualties from Iran’s “very weak response” while also thanking Iran for “giving us early notice” of the strikes. This was followed by a surprise post by Trump at around 11pm London time last night claiming that Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.”
As I write this around 6 hours after the post above, we are yet to hear formal confirmation on the ceasefire from Israel or Iran, with US media reporting that the ceasefire was brokered by Trump in direct conversation with Netanyahu”. Iran’s foreign minister posted that Iran has “no intention to continue our response” if Israel stops its aggression but that “as of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations”. So there are still outstanding questions, from whether a ceasefire will hold given that mutual strikes had continued overnight, to the future of what remains of Iran’s nuclear programme. But as things stand, the past 12 days look set to join the long list of geopolitical shocks that proved temporarily disruptive but had little lasting effect on markets.
Prior to those Middle East developments, the main new story of the day had been on the Fed, as rate cut speculation got further support after comments from Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision. She commented how inflation had come in at or beneath expectations recently, and said “we should recognize that inflation appears to be on a sustained path toward 2 percent and that there will likely be only minimal impacts on overall core PCE inflation from changes to trade policy.” As such, she said that she’d support a rate cut as soon as the next meeting in late July, if “inflation pressures remain contained”. Those remarks meant futures dialled up the likelihood of a July rate cut, rising from 17% before the weekend to 23% by the close, while pricing of rate cut by September rose to 96%, its highest since mid-May. So that really heightens the importance of the next CPI report, as a 5th downside surprise in a row would really keep up the momentum for a rate cut. There has been talk about potential candidates for the Fed Chair role becoming more vocal around dovish thoughts if they believe in them given the President’s very public view on what the Fed should do so this may be something to bear in mind in the weeks and months ahead. Powell’s term ends in May 2026 but a replacement could be named very soon. Staying with all things Fed and rates related, today, we’ll see Fed Chair Powell appearing before the House Financial Services Committee, so it’ll be interesting to hear his thoughts too but this time the gap between this and last week’s FOMC isn’t large so new information may not be forthcoming.
With oil prices falling and markets pricing in more rate cuts, this proved good news for US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield down -4.5bps to 3.86% and the 10yr down -2.9bps to 4.35% and another -1.5bps lower overnight. That’s their lowest levels since May 7, before US and China announced a pause in the retaliatory tariffs. Rising rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks also drove a big turn around for the dollar, which had climbed by as much as three-quarters of a percent by European lunchtime, but ended the day -0.29% lower.
Another boost to markets yesterday came from the flash PMIs for June. They were broadly in line with expectations, but that cemented the narrative that the global economy was still holding up after Liberation Day, with no obvious signs of a deterioration, even with the 10% baseline tariffs that have been in place. That was echoed across the major economies, with the US composite PMI beating expectations at 52.8 (vs. 52.2 expected), whilst the Euro Area composite PMI held steady at 50.2 (vs. 50.4 expected). So both were still in expansionary territory, although France was an underperformer as its composite PMI fell back to 48.5 (vs. 49.3 expected), remaining in contractionary territory for a 10th consecutive month.
That backdrop proved supportive for US equities, though the impact of the data was dominated by volatility around the Middle East headlines. The S&P 500 had opened with a solid gain, reversed this as reports of imminent Iranian retaliation emerged, but then rallied to close around the day’s highs (+0.96%) to end a run of 3 consecutive declines. Tesla (+8.23%) was the strongest performer in the entire S&P after they launched their robotaxis over the weekend, which in turn helped the Magnificent 7 rise +1.58%. But the advance was pretty broad, with solid gains for the NASDAQ (+0.94%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.11%).
Over in Europe, markets didn’t perform quite as well. In large part that was as markets closed before the more sanguine news out of the Middle East and the big decline in oil played out, but also as European markets didn’t get as much of a benefit from the rate cut speculation centered on the Fed. So by the close, the STOXX 600 was down -0.28%, along with the DAX (-0.35%) and the CAC 40 (-0.69%). Moreover, the bond rally was also more subdued, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-1.5bps) seeing smaller moves than Treasuries.
In Asia the mood is upbeat with the KOSPI (+2.78%) leading the gains led by a jump in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics. Elsewhere the Hang Seng (+1.93%), the CSI (+1.09%), the Shanghai Composite (+1.01%), the Nikkei (+1.07%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.99%) are all experiencing major gains in early trade. S&P 500 (+0.55%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.78%) futures are also higher.
Meanwhile, demand for Japan’s 20-year bond auction was marginally below the average of the past year, despite the government’s adjustments to its borrowing strategy. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.11, stronger than from the last two auctions, but with many expecting a more positive outcome. The sale comes after the Finance Ministry yesterday approved a plan to reduce the volume of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds sold in regular auctions by a total of ¥3.2 trillion ($22 billion) until the end of March 2026.
In response to the reduction in long-term funding, the ministry plans to enhance the issuance of shorter-term securities, which will include 2-year notes and six-month Treasury bills. These changes will be evident starting from the auctions next month.
To the day ahead now, and aside from Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the House Financial Services Committee mentioned above, there will be attention on the annual NATO summit being held in the Hague today and tomorrow. This is expected to confirm a 5% of GDP spending target, including 3.5% on core defence spending, up from 2% before. Our European economists have previewed the summit and its fiscal implications here. Today Germany is also set to unveil its spending plan, with reporting yesterday that this will aim for an increase in core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP in 2029 and amount to a pretty speedy ramp up in spending already in 2025.
Other events today include central bank speak from the Fed’s Hamack, Williams, Kashkari, Collins, Barr and Schmid, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kazimir and Lane, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Data releases include US Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June in the US, the Ifo’s business climate indicator for June in Germany, and Canada’s CPI for May. Finally, the NATO summit will begin.
2b European opening report
Sentiment bolstered after Israel-Iran ceasefire comes into effect; Israel claims Iran violated agreement – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 06:08 AM
Sentiment bolstered after US President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, effective 05:00 BST / 00:00 EDT.
Though Israel claimed Iran had launched ballistic missiles and violated the agreement, which Iran has denied.
USD softer as geopolitical premium recedes, attention now turns to Fed Chair Powell who testifies before the House.
Bonds hold a bearish bias given latest Iran-Israel ceasefire; USTs are lower by a handful of ticks whilst Bunds are hit on updates via the German Finance Ministry.
Crude clipped by the ceasefire, XAU loses its shine, base metals find a floor.
Looking ahead, Canadian Inflation, US Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, NATO Summit, NBH Policy Announcement, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Pill, Breeden; ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Lane; Fed’s Powell, Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr, Supply from the US, Earnings from FedEx, Carnival.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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IRAN-ISRAEL
Note, this is a brief summary given the extensive amount of newsflow. Please see the bottom of the sheet for a full recap.
US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the “ceasefire is now in effect”.
At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.
TRADE/TARIFFS
Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri.
The EU said it would not give up decision‑making power for a US trade deal, according to the WSJ citing European Commission President von der Leyen.
US and South Korean trade ministers reaffirmed commitment to reaching a tariff deal early, according to the South Korean ministry.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.2%) opened entirely in the green and still trade at elevated levels, albeit have cooled a touch off peaks. Sentiment today has been boosted by US President Trump’s “complete and total ceasefire” announcement between Iran and Israel. Though this seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire. Complex continues to remain buoyed.
European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the positive risk-tone seen across markets. It comes as no surprise that Energy sits right at the foot of the pile, due to the latest slump in oil prices, following the latest ceasefire agreement. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, lifted by lower oil prices and with airliners generally buoyed by the broader sentiment.
US equity futures (ES +1% NQ +1.2% RTY +1.2%) are broadly in the green, with the complex boosted by the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement; contracts are off worst levels however, amid commentary from the Israel side that Iran has already violated the agreement. A slew of Fed speak today, including the Fed Chair Powell who is to testify before the House.
DXY is lower as the safe-haven premium continues to unwind for the USD. This comes after US President Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel; which was subsequently later acknowledged by Israel. However, Israel has since stated that Iran has breached the ceasefire. Accordingly, DXY has bounced from a 97.96 low and made its way back onto a 98.0 handle. Focus will be on Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT alongside US Consumer Confidence.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers. EUR/USD rose to a session peak at 1.1622, benefiting from the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but the move for the Single-Currency ran out of steam around the same time that Israel claimed that Iran had violated the ceasefire. In terms of domestic drivers, German IFO data saw a larger-than-expected increase for the Business climate metric. A slew of ECB speakers are due throughout the day. If upside in EUR/USD resumes, the YTD high from June 12th sits at 1.1631.
JPY is towards the top of the G10 leaderboard despite the unwind in the safe-haven premium seen elsewhere. JPY is instead benefitting from the pullback in oil prices, given that it is a net importer. Furthermore, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri. USD/JPY has pulled back markedly from Monday’s 148.03 peak and briefly slipped onto a 144 handle with a current session low at 144.95.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD and EUR as it benefits from the bump in risk sentiment. Fresh UK-specific macro drivers are lacking for today’s session. However, that could change given the busy BoE speaker slate which includes MPC members Bailey, Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Markets will be looking for any clues over the MPC’s future easing intentions given the three dovish dissenters at last week’s meeting, as well as a recent run of soft data points, including last week’s retail sales release.
Antipodeans are both are near the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the positive risk-tone. Fresh macro drivers for both have been on the light side. However, traders are mindful of Australian monthly CPI metrics overnight, which are expected to see the Weighted Y/Y CPI metric decline to 2.3% from 2.4%.
CAD firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers as the declines in oil prices caps gains for the currency. Attention today will be on domestic inflation data with Y/Y CPI for May set to hold steady at 1.7%, M/M is expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.1%. Note, at its most recent meeting (where it left rates unchanged), the Bank stated that further rate cuts may be warranted if tariff-related uncertainty spreads but inflationary cost pressures remain contained.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1656 vs exp. 7.1605 (prev. 7.1710); strongest CNY fix since Nov 8th 2024
Brazil’s central bank announced a spot dollar auction for 25 June, offering up to USD 1bln. It also announced a reverse FX swap auction on the same date, offering up to 20k contracts, according to a statement.
USTs are lower by a handful ticks in what has been a choppy European morning so far. Overnight, benchmarks lost their haven allure given Trump’s Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement. Though this was short-lived, as Israel claimed Iran had broken the agreement by launching two missiles into the area – This sparked a modest bid in the USTs, taking it to 111-14. Pressure has since resumed more recently in tandem with Bunds, after the latest updates from the German Finance Agency (details below); USTs are currently trading just of lows at around 111-09+. For the US specifically, traders will eye US Consumer Confidence, 2yr supply and a slew of Fed speakers (incl. Fed Chair Powell).
Bunds tracked peers overnight and into the morning, on the aforementioned geopolitical updates. For the region itself, the German Finance Ministry said it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3. Thereafter, the agency said it will “probably” continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4; commentary which saw German paper slip to a fresh trough of 130.35. On the data front, German Ifo printed firmer than the prior across the board. German auction was okay, with decent demand but with a higher avg. yield – ultimately unable to stop the continued pressure in Bunds, which is now down to a 130.35 low. Ahead, a slew of ECB speakers.
Gilts are softer and trading marginally heavier than peers, potentially as a function of confirmation that the UK will pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% (prev. 2.3%) by 2035. In slight contrast to Bunds and USTs, Gilts have exactly matched Monday’s 92.25-93.21 confines, but are yet to breach them. A couple BoE speakers have already appeared today (and a few more still yet to come); BoE’s Greene said underlying activity is weak and the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing.
Crude drilled lower overnight after the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire which came into effect at 05:00 BST. Benchmarks now trade lower by around -3.5%, with recent two-way action seen on reports of ceasefire violations. In an update which lifted benchmarks this morning, the IDF said that it had detected missiles launched from Iran, which the nation said it had intercepted. Far-Right Israeli Finance Minister, Smotrich said the ceasefire was violated, and that Tehran will tremble in response. More recently, downticks were seen across the complex after Iran denied firing missiles towards Israel, we now look for further clarity. Brent Aug’25 currently trades around USD 69.30/bbl.
Spot gold is firmly in the red, towards session lows and suffering from the positive mood after the US announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Base metals are trading firmer given the positive risk environment, alongside the softer USD.
Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil output seen at 35.7mln T in 2025, according to KazMunayGas.
German Ifo Curr Conditions New (Jun) 86.2 vs. Exp. 86.5 (Prev. 86.1); Ifo Business Climate New (Jun) 88.4 vs. Exp. 88.3 (Prev. 87.5); Ifo Expectations New (Jun) 90.7 vs. Exp. 90 (Prev. 88.9)
UK CBI Trends – Orders (Jun) -33.0 vs. Exp. -27.0 (Prev. -30.0)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB could still proceed with rate cuts despite volatility in oil markets, according to the FT. He noted that inflation expectations remained moderate.
BoE’s Greene says underlying activity is weak, the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing. Worries about both demand and supply sides of the economy. Continue to think risks remain two sided but skewed to the downside on growth and to the upside on inflation. Given the period of elevated inflation through which we have just come, I think price stability is the key priority. A careful and gradual approach to removing monetary policy restrictiveness continues to be warranted. On the domestic front, noisy data means that it will take longer for me to take comfort from recent disinflationary trends. On the global front, there are a number of key events playing out between now and our next meeting, including the deadline for the pause on so-called “reciprocal tariffs” from the US, the potential passage of a budget in the US and the unfolding of events in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that the uncertainty from these events – and subsequent developments – will be resolved any time soon (in reference to global points of uncertainty, i.e. tariffs, geopols). Still expect trade policy to have a net disinflationary impact on the UK, but it may be muted relative to my expectations in May, when it was a factor in my decision to cut Bank Rate. The risk that our near-term plateau in inflation feeds through into second round effects is skewed to the upside.
UK Grocery Inflation 4.7% in the four weeks to June 15th (prev. 4.1% in May), via Kantar; “Grocery footfall hit a five-year high”, grocery volumes -0.4% Y/Y, the first such decline in 2025.
German Finance Ministry says it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3; includes EUR 15bln increase in borrowing on the capital market and EUR 4bln increase on the money market.
German Finance Agency says will “probably” continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4. Very good demand for long term bonds. 50yr Bond not planned for this year but internal conditions have been created.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Bostic sees economic growth slowing to 1.1% this year, inflation rising to 2.9%; no need to cut rates now, sees single 25bps reduction late this year.
House GOP leaders were still unsure whether they would cancel the July 4 recess to pass the mega bill, depending on whether the Senate could clear the bill by the weekend as planned, according to a Politico report. The decision depended on what changes the Senate made and whether the House would need to alter the bill.
US President Trump posted “Members of Congress are united in their commitment to deliver the One Big Beautiful Bill “
NHTSA seeks information from Tesla (TSLA) after Robotaxi debut, with regards to issues seen in online videos, according to Bloomberg. Tesla (TSLA) is sued by the estates of three people killed in a September 2024 crash in Model S with autopilot, according to a court filing.
Amazon (AMZN) is to invest USD 54bln in the UK over the next three years, according to Reuters.
Starbucks (SBUX), when asked to comment on media report, says it is not currently considering a full sale of its China operation. Earlier, it was reported Starbucks (SBUX) is reportedly mulling full sale of China business, according to Caixin.
US Senate Majority Leader Thune said House will ultimately accept what the Senate passes, according to three senators in the room cited by Punchbowl.
“Big Banks are worried [US] President Trump could turn the power of the federal government against them with an executive order on “debanking.””, via WSJ
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is on a stronger footing and climbs back above USD 105k, amid the latest Iran-Israel ceasefire.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded firmer across the board with the region coat-tailing gains from Wall Street, which initially stemmed from Iran’s “symbolic” strike on a US base in Qatar—de-escalatory in nature given the clear effort to minimise casualties and collateral damage. Sentiment was further boosted at the resumption of futures trading after US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although the Iranian Foreign Minister later clarified that there was no “agreement”, but Iran would stop attacking if Israel also halts.
ASX 200 was bolstered by most sectors, although energy producers and gold miners bore the brunt of the slide in oil and gold.
Nikkei 225 gains and tested the 39k mark to the upside amid broader market optimism, although gains were somewhat capped by gradual JPY strength.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broader tone across the market amid optimism surrounding the Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside the step-down in tensions with the US.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan would hold its Upper House election on July 20th, according to Reuters.
Japan’s finance ministry said top foreign exchange diplomat Atsushi Mimura would be reappointed for his second year, as he remained involved in US trade talks, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected 406.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
PBoC issues guidelines on financial support to boost consumption; to increase credit support for services consumption and key areas To increase support for the real economy. Support employment, boost income. Improve financial institutions capabilities, expand supply in consumer sector. Maintain ample liquidity. Strengthen financial services to help optimise consumption environment. Encourage issuance of consumption ETF. Support eligible enterprises in consumption industry chain to raise funds through listing. Support qualified consumer infrastructure companies in issuing REITs in the sector. To increase investment in key areas of services consumption.
DATA RECAP
South Korean Consumer Sentiment Index (Jun) 108.7 (Prev. 101.8); highest since June 2021.
GEOPOLITICS
Note, the below is in chronological order with the newest updates at the bottom
Iran’s attack on US base in Qatar
Iran’s Foreign Minister said Tehran’s attack on a US air base in Qatar was in response to US aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, adding that Iran would be ready to respond again if the US took further action, according to Reuters.
US President Trump posted “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
Saudi Arabia stated that Iranian aggression against Qatar was unacceptable, could not be justified, and constituted a flagrant violation of international law, according to Al Arabiya.
US Vice President Vance said Iran is now incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because the US destroyed it, according to a Fox News interview.
Israel-Iran Ceasefire
US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, to begin at 00:00 EDT/05:00 BST, and lasting 12 hours. Trump stated that the war would be considered officially ended following this sequence. He praised both nations for ending what he termed “THE 12 DAY WAR.”
Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
US President Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel — which he announced — a wonderful day for the world, according to NBC News. He said he believes the ceasefire is unlimited and is going to go “forever.”
US President Trump and Vice President Vance discussed the Israel-Iran ceasefire proposal with Qatar’s emir after Iranian attacks on the airbase in Qatar on Monday, according to an official cited by Reuters. Qatar’s prime minister secured Iran’s agreement to the US ceasefire proposal in a call.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Iran during talks with US President Trump, on the condition that Iran stopped its attacks.
Israeli PM Netanyahu announced an agreement with Iran, noting that a comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached, according to Al Arabiya.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said there was no “agreement” on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations between Israel and Iran. He stated that Iran had consistently made clear it was Israel that launched the war, not Iran. However, if Israel halted its “illegal aggression” against the Iranian people by 4 a.m. Tehran time, Iran had no intention to continue its response. He added that the final decision on halting Iran’s military operations would be made later.
Israel attacked a “substantial percentage” of the targets approved as part of Operation Am Kalvi, according to i24 journalist Stein. An Israeli source told him: “We will complete the attacks on all the approved targets within a few days.” The source warned: “If we need to, we have a very large pool of targets. There are still many places to attack in Iran.”
Iranian officials made clear to the Trump administration that they would come back to the negotiating table and discuss their nuclear program on the condition that Israel stops bombing them, according to a senior US official via NYT.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei posted on X that “the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.”
US President Trump posted that Israel and Iran came to him “almost simultaneously” and said “PEACE!”, declaring that he knew the time was now. He said the world and the Middle East were the real winners. Trump added that both nations had much to gain and much to lose if they strayed from the road of righteousness and truth. He said the future for Israel and Iran was unlimited and filled with great promise.
Strikes since ceasefire announcement
Israeli strikes were continuous as markets headed into Iran’s proposed ceasefire time (01:30 BST) vs Trump’s guided time (05:00 BST). Iranian media reported that tonight marked the most intense defensive operation since the beginning of Israel’s attacks on Tehran, according to Iran International.
Iranian strikes continued after 01:30 BST, with several missiles fired towards Israel. Some reports noted an Iranian ballistic missile hitting an Israeli residential building, with three killed.
An Iraqi military official said an unknown drone targeted the Taji military base north of Baghdad, with no casualties reported, according to the state news agency. Al Hadath reported a drone attack on US bases in Iraq, stating that four Iraqi military bases housing US forces were targeted, and added that there were no human casualties resulting from the attacks on the Iraqi military bases.
The Israeli military said a fifth wave of missiles had been launched from Iran towards Israel.
There were reports of the Israeli assassination in Tehran of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sediqi.
“Drone strike on radar of air base in southern Iraq”, according to Sky News Arabia.
After the ceasefire came into effect
“Iran fires missiles towards Israel, violating ceasefire announced by Trump”, according to BNO Newsroom; ” Israeli army: We are monitoring a sixth Iranian attack on Israel”, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran fired the last round of missiles towards Israel before the ceasefire came into effect, according to Iran’s SNN.
US President Trump posts, at 06:09BST/01:09ET, “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”
At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
Israel claims Iran has violated the ceasefire agreement
Times of Israel journalist posts on X “The IDF says it has detected a new launch of ballistic missiles from Iran. Sirens are expected to sound in northern Israel in the coming minutes”.
Israel Finance Minster Smotrich says the ceasefire was violated, one launch was identified from Iran – “Tehran will tremble”, via N12 News.
“Two Iranian missiles were launched at northern Israel and intercepted according to an initial assessment”, via Horowitz on X.
Israel Defence Minister says he instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with high-intensity strikes against targets in the heart of Tehran.
“Iran denies firing missiles at Israel after ceasefire – state media”, via Soylu on X.
Iran Top Security Body says “Iran’s armed forces have no trust in the words of its enemies and will keep finger on trigger to respond to any further act of aggression”, via Fars News.
2c) Asian opening report
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
4.European affairs
FRANCE
France Is No Longer France
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 02:45 AM
French authorities detained 12 suspects after 145 people reported being pricked with syringes during Fête de la Musique — France’s annual World Music Day celebration. For perspective on how dramatically the festival has changed in three decades, compare the atmosphere of the 1994 event to the chaos seen this past weekend.
Millions flooded the streets across France on Saturday to celebrate the universal language of music through open-air concerts, pop-up performances, community orchestras, DJ sets, and more. While footage earlier in the day showed an orderly atmosphere, the night quickly descended into unrest.
🔴 Fête de la musique #FêteDesBarbares : 1500 personnes blessées, dont 14 en urgence absolue (Figaro). Une insoutenable barbarie se répand partout en France du fait de la submersion migratoire extra-européenne, et en parler serait "raciste" ? 🙄 Vidéos ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/8RyHO9Wq4N
State-owned international news television France 24 provided more color on the stabbings:
Before the party, posts on Snapchat and other social media had called for targeting women during the festivities.
The interior ministry said 145 victims reported being stabbed with needles across the country, with Paris police reporting 13 cases in the capital.
Officials did not specify if they were cases of so-called needle spiking with date-rape drugs such as Rohypnol or GHB, used by attackers to render victims confused or unconscious and vulnerable to sexual assault.
“Some victims were taken to hospital for toxicological tests,” the ministry said.
In Paris, investigations were opened after three people including a 15-year-old girl and an 18-year-old male, reported being stabbed in three different locations in Paris, prosecutors said.
We need to revisit footage from the 1994 Fête de la Musique to understand what went wrong with society. The difference is stark, and much of the blame likely lies with decades of failed progressive policies that have eroded society, fueling chaos and lawlessness. Mass migration has likely accelerated these problems.
end
GERMANY// HOLLAND/MIGRANT
this will get Holland pretty angry!!
German Police Caught Dropping Off Migrant In Dutch Border City
German federal police were filmed quietly dropping off a migrant in the Dutch city of Venlo in the early hours of the morning in what appears to be a cross-border expulsion carried out without the knowledge of local Dutch authorities.
The incident, which took place in May, came to light after local florist Masha Verstappen’s security camera captured the scene, and she later shared her concerns publicly.
The footage shows a police van arriving at around 4:00 a.m., parking briefly as a man is handed a suitcase and a large brown envelope, then left behind as the vehicle drives away.
“He sat outside for a few more hours and used my power to charge his phone,” she told Dutch outlet L1 Nieuws. “We are less than 100 meters from the border here.”
🇳🇱🇩🇪‼️ German police officers have been caught on camera crossing the Dutch border to drop off migrants.
CCTV footage from a florist in Venlo recorded the moment a man was left at 4 a.m. with his suitcase and a brown envelope in the Dutch city, just 4 miles from Germany.
The Dutch Ministry of Asylum and Migration confirmed to L1 Nieuws it was aware of such incidents and admitted they have been occurring for years.
A spokesperson said there are two types of transfers of foreign nationals between Germany and the Netherlands: so-called “hot transfers,” where a migrant is physically handed over between authorities, and “cold transfers,” in which no coordination takes place.
The May incident is categorized as a cold transfer.
The ministry defended the legality of the practice, stating that such returns are not classified as illegal “pushback” because they occur within the Schengen Area, not at an external European border.
This assessment, however, is a moot point. There have been multiple instances in which courts have intervened to rule the return of migrants from one EU country to another to be unlawful, including between Germany and Poland.
A German judge ruled in early June that such expulsions are unlawful, affirming that all individuals have the right to a fair asylum procedure. The Bundespolizei, however, maintains that it is acting within its rights.
That particular case concerned three Somali nationals who had arrived in Frankfurt (Oder) on May 9 by train, only to be removed back to Poland by the German authorities despite having declared their intention to seek asylum.
The Berlin Administrative Court ruled the German government could not bypass the Dublin Regulation by invoking emergency clauses under the EU treaties where there was “a lack of sufficient demonstration of a danger to public safety or order.”
The drop-off in Venlo appears to be a byproduct of increased German border checks under the new CDU-led federal government. When those individuals are believed to have come from the Netherlands, they are sometimes returned without formal coordination, as in the case of the Venlo incident.
The municipality of Venlo, however, said it had no prior knowledge of the incident and reiterated that it has no jurisdiction over border control or immigration enforcement. “The police and the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee are responsible for supervising the lawful residence of foreign nationals. Furthermore, it is up to the national governments to make mutual agreements about this,” a spokesperson for Mayor Scholten said.
The Dutch coalition government collapsed recently over the insistence of Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV), for a stricter asylum policy.
With fresh elections on the horizon, Wilders has remained committed to defending the Dutch border, potentially putting any future Dutch government on a collision course with Berlin over such practices.
ISRAEL IRAN/USA/ HUGE NEWS//cronological events starting at 6 pm est
Donald Trump: Israel, Iran agreed to a ceasefire
The US president said that Iran will immediately cease attacks and Israel will join the ceasefire on the 12th hour of the agreement.
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers an address to the nation at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. June 21, 2025, following US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.(photo credit: REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA)ByDANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARDJUNE 23, 2025 23:09Updated: JUNE 24, 2025 01:20
US President Donald Trump announced late on Monday night that a ceasefire has been reached between Israel and Iran and will enter into effect at 7 a.m. Israel time.
Trump said that Iran will immediately cease attacks and Israel will join the ceasefire on the 12th hour of the agreement. On the 24th hour, both sides will reportedly accept an end to the 12-day war.
“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!),” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“For 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.
“During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that Tehran no longer have the capacity to build nuclear weaponry, thanks to prior US strikes.
US receives advance warnings of Iran’s attacks
Ahead of his announcement, Trump confirmed that Iran gave advanced notice ahead of an attack on American bases in Qatar and Iraq, which he called a “very weak response” in a social media post late Monday night.
“I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE,” the president wrote on Truth Social.
“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”
Trump also expressed his gratitude to the Emir of Qatar in a later post and shared, “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
The president confirmed that 14 Iranian missiles were fired at US bases, with 13 of them “knocked down” and one allowed to land in an open area.
Traces are seen in the sky after Iran’s armed forces say they targeted The Al-Udeid base in a missile attack, in Qatar, June 23, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)
Iran warns against future US attacks
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday that Tehran’s attack on US military base al-Udeid in Qatar came in response to the US “aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
He said Iran will be ready to respond again in case of further action by the US, according a statement posted by the Iranian foreign ministry’s account on Telegram.
Iran’s attack on US Middle East assets
Iran launched ballistic missiles towards US bases across the Middle East on Monday evening, including US Central Command (CENTCOM)’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-controlled Fars News released a statement defending the attack, by referring to it as a reaction to “the blatant military aggression of the United States against the peaceful nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the clear violation of international law.”
Iran previously threatened attacks on any countries it perceived to be providing military support to Israel during Operation Rising Lion. The US struck several Iranian nuclear sites after the beginning of the operation – which led to Iranian officials justifying attacks on US assets in the region.
James Genn contributed to this report.
end
the agreement: Iran stops immediately Israel at 4 am Israeli time!
Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to ‘complete and total ceasefire’
Agreement will take full effect in 24 hours, US president says, bringing about an ‘official end to the 12-day war’ * Explosions reported in Tehran after Israeli evacuation order
US President Donald Trump walks on the South Lawn upon arriving at the White House, June 21, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
US President Donald Trump announces that Israel and Iran have agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.”
In a Truth Social post announcing the development, Trump says the ceasefire will start to take effect in about six hours, after Israel and Iran have “wound down” their final strikes against each other.
Trump says the ceasefire will come fully into place in 24 hours, bringing about an “official end to the 12-day war.”
“Iran will start the ceasefire and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the ceasefire and, upon the 24th Hour, an official end to the 12 Day War,” he adds.
It’s not completely clear from Trump’s post when each side side will begin holding its fire.
“I would like to congratulate both countries —- Israel and Iran —- on having the stamina, courage, and intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘the 12-Day war,’” Trump writes.
( @realDonaldTrump – Truth Social Post ) ( Donald J. Trump – Jun 23, 2025, 6:02 PM ET )
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran… pic.twitter.com/lWdRKVoZGI
— Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 TRUTH POSTS (@TruthTrumpPosts) June 23, 2025
Explosions reported in Tehran after Israeli evacuation order
A video purports to show an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 23, 2025 (Video screenshot)
Explosions are heard in Tehran shortly after the IDF issued an evacuation order for the city’s District 7.
Iran’s Fars news agency reports blasts in the northeast part of the city, where the district is located.
The explosions come as US President Donald Trump announces that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire that will begin to take effect in about six hours.
end
ISRAEL IRAN//never hit Ramat Gan!
Iran issues evacuation order to residents of Ramat Gan
24 June 2025, 1:05 am
Residents seeking shelter from Iranian missile attacks in Ramat Gan’s Bialik Light Rail Station, June 16, 2025. (Ariela Karmel)
Iran issues an evacuation order to residents of Ramat Gan, next to Tel Aviv, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency.
The statement says in Hebrew that Iranian forces will be operating in the area and that residents should leave for their safety.
The warning includes a map with a highlighted area that Iran says should be evacuated.
The map and the statement’s language appear to mimic warnings that Israel issues to Iranians ahead of Israeli operations.
Following the Israeli evacuation orders, Iran has released similar warnings to Israelis several times. Iran’s latest warning comes immediately after Israel issued an evacuation order to residents of Tehran’s District 7.
Vice President JD Vance speaks during a visit to the the Wilshire Federal Building, June 20, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
US Vice President JD Vance says Iran is no longer able to build a nuclear weapon after Sunday’s strike against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites.
“Iran was very close to having a nuclear weapon… Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it,” Vance tells Fox News in an interview.
Vance says the next six hours will see Israel and Iran finalizing their strikes against one another.
“Tomorrow really is a new day — the end of the 12-day war, the end of the Iranian nuclear program, and I really do believe the beginning of something very big for peace in the Middle East,” Vance says.
With Iran’s nuclear program “obliterated” the US hopes that Tehran will not try to rebuild it, Vance says.
The US now seeks to “build a long-term settlement… where you can have peace in the region,” Vance adds.
If Iran wants to build nuclear weapons in the future, it will have to deal with the US military again, he warns.
end
ISRAEL IRAN
“Congrats World, It’s Time For Peace” – Trump “Thanks” Iran After “Very Weak Response”
Monday, Jun 23, 2025 – 04:12 PM
Summary:The mainstream media and US officials are collectively reporting it’s all over folks – and there’s currently a surprisingly open level of acknowledgement that this ‘retaliation’ on US bases was telegraphed and even coordinated between Iran and Qatar (and that yes, the US knew about it). Tehran is saying the same number of missiles were used in the short-lived assault as were used by US bombers against its nuclear facilities.
“Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend,” Bloomberg is reporting. And CNN is currently even saying (based on its correspondent on the ground) that the skies over Tehran have grown quiet, after many days of constant strike waves by Israeli warplanes. The US military is saying all missiles were intercepted over Qatar. Airspace over Bahrain, Kuwait, and Dubai have already been reopened.
Certainly markets have reacted consistent to this off-ramp narrative as well, as if it was all baked in: “One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said the attack was a typical example of an ‘off-ramp’ escalation and warned it was more difficult to understand whether — and at what point — Israel would stop its own military activities in the region,” Bloomberg continues. The same report cites Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, who points to the obvious: “It feels choreographed and intentional. The Iranians get to tell their population they struck a mighty blow against the US, even if they didn’t, and Trump has the room now to decide not to retaliate.”
The Trump White House is now signaling it currently has no plans to launch a ‘retaliation’ strike in the wake of today’s Iranian attacks on US assets in the Gulf. Most reports are claiming that no missiles actually struck the ground at a US base, but it could be that this information will get suppressed regardless. No deaths or injuries have been reported. Trump’s statement in the aftermath ‘thanking’ Iran, ironically enough…
President Trump is essentially saying ‘mission accomplished’ and has declared that the three nuclear facilities struck by US bombers over the weekend were totally destroyed. But the big questions remain:
1) Will Netanyahu and the Israelis play ball with the ‘off-ramp’ opportunity?
2) Most importantly, where is the estimated 400kg of Iran’s enriched uranium now?
Iran has two choices; 1. Become Libya 2. Become North Korea
To some degree, more ‘known unknowns’ (cue Rumsfeld) have been created in the wake of Trump’s alleged destruction of Iran’s enrichment facilities. Perhaps the Iranians will now hasten to begin the actual secretive nuclear bomb program?
* * *
Update(1335ET): NY Times is reporting that advanced notice was given, which appears confirmation that plans of the ‘retaliation’ attack were leaked beforehand and was in many ways telegraphed publicly.
“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American airbase in Qatar with Qatar officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans,” per the NY Times’ reporting.
War theater? Or just one big test of US-supplied anti-air defense hardware? One regional journalist and pundit writes:
So far this is looking like the response we got in 2020 in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. A telegraphed attack on US base that did not result in fatalities but is “face saving” for the Iranian regime.
Some are claiming missile impact on some targets, which would indeed be a very serious development. But Qatar’s Al-Arabi is saying there were no Iranian missile attacks on Iraq’s Ain al-Assad base, which hosts significant US forces.
CONFIRMED IMPACTS made at US al-Udeid airbase in Qatar — Al-Mayadeen citing IRGC
Onlookers observe impacts as smoke reportedly rises from site — Al-Quds news footage pic.twitter.com/I7nl8krTkZ
And meanwhile markets seem to be taking this all in as a bit of staged war theater…
Some odd trading behavior to say the least, seemingly indicating markets aren’t buying the ‘spectacle’ thus far…
Oil knows?
Below: Oil at moment when Iran launched the first missiles…
* * *
end
ISRAEL IRAN
(after the annoucement of the ceasefire but before the deadline:
(JerusalemPost)
IDF issues another evacuation warning for parts of Tehran
24 June 2025, 1:47 am
An Israeli Air Force fighter jet flying over central Israel, June 23, 2025. (Nati Shohat/Flash90)
The IDF issues an evacuation warning for two areas in Tehran, shortly after a similar warning for residents of another part of the Iranian capital.
In a Farsi-language statement, the IDF warns residents of Tehran’s District 6 and the Mehran neighborhood to evacuate due to impending Israeli military activity.
The IDF warned residents of Tehran’s District 7 to evacuate about two hours ago. Iranian media have reported explosions in the area of the capital since then.
The latest warning comes shortly after US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire that will start to take effect in about six hours.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said that Iranian armed forces fought until the very last minute, in an X/Twitter post on Tuesday morning.
“Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute,” he wrote.
This statement came less than an hour after Aragchi threatened that Iran would withdraw from a ceasefire with Israel should Israel continue its attacks past 4 a.m (Israeli time). (9 pm est Monday)
Aragchi had denied there was any agreement and asserted that Tehran would decide at a later time whether to continue hostilities.
“As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around,” Araghchi wrote on X. “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time (3 am Israel time), we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
US President Donald Trump announced late on Monday night that a ceasefire has been reached between Israel and Iran and will enter into effect at 7 a.m. Israel time.(8 am Tehran time)
Trump said that Iran will immediately cease attacks and Israel will join the ceasefire on the 12th hour of the agreement. On the 24th hour, both sides will reportedly accept an end to the 12-day war.
According to a diplomatic source familiar with details, the ceasefire was mediated by Qatar.
Trump: The ’12-day war’ will be brought to official end
“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!),” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“For 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.
“During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that Tehran no longer had the capacity to build nuclear weaponry, thanks to prior US strikes.
Qatar was involved in mediation between Israel and Iran to achieve a ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on Monday night, a diplomatic source familiar with details toldThe Jerusalem Post.
Following a security cabinet meeting on Monday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked ministers to avoid making public statements.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with IAF pilots at the Tel Nof airbase June 16, 2025. (credit: Avi Ohayon/GPO)
Trump later told NBC News he expects an Israel-Iran ceasefire that he announced on Monday to last “forever.”
“I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It’s going to go forever,” he told the network.
US receives advance warnings of Iran’s attacks
Ahead of his announcement, Trump confirmed that Iran gave advanced notice ahead of an attack on American bases in Qatar and Iraq, which he called a “very weak response” in a social media post late Monday night.
“I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE,” the president wrote on Truth Social.
“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”
Trump also expressed his gratitude to the Emir of Qatar in a later post and shared, “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
The president confirmed that 14 Iranian missiles were fired at US bases, with 13 of them “knocked down” and one allowed to land in an open area.
Traces are seen in the sky after Iran’s armed forces say they targeted The Al-Udeid base in a missile attack, in Qatar, June 23, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)
Iran warns against future US attacks
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday that Tehran’s attack on US military base al-Udeid in Qatar came in response to the US “aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
He said Iran will be ready to respond again in case of further action by the US, according a statement posted by the Iranian foreign ministry’s account on Telegram.
Iran’s attack on US Middle East assets
Iran launched ballistic missiles towards US bases across the Middle East on Monday evening, including US Central Command (CENTCOM)’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-controlled Fars News released a statement defending the attack, by referring to it as a reaction to “the blatant military aggression of the United States against the peaceful nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the clear violation of international law.”
Iran previously threatened attacks on any countries it perceived to be providing military support to Israel during Operation Rising Lion. The US struck several Iranian nuclear sites after the beginning of the operation – which led to Iranian officials justifying attacks on US assets in the region.
James Genn, Amichai Stein and Reuters contributed to this report.
end
(after the ceasefire agreement)
IRAN/ISRAEL
IAF intercepts drones launched from Iran after Trump announces incoming ceasefire
Anti-missile system fires interception missiles as missiles fired from Iran as it seen from Jerusalem, June 21, 2025.(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 24, 2025 02:43
The IAF intercepted four UAVs launched from Iran on Tuesday morning, the IDF announced. Prior to interception, sirens were sounded in the southern Golan Heights regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration.
Additionally, three other UAVs launched from Iran toward Israel were recently intercepted by the IAF before crossing into Israeli territory, the military added.
This recent launch from Iran comes shortly after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement to take effect at 7 a.m. Israel time. (12 MIDNIGHT EST)
Iranian media also reported a number of explosions were heard in Tehran, after Israel issued new evacuation warnings.
END
5 AM Israeli time (2 hrs before Israel stops fighting) Iran was suppose to stop immediately!
Iran targets Israel with ballistic missiles after Trump’s ceasefire declaration
No reports of injuries * Iranian FM denies agreeing to end of war but says that if Israel halts strikes, so will Iran * Vance downplays possibility that Tehran still has enriched uranium
Sirens sound across central and southern Israel amid a second salvo of ballistic missiles launched from Iran.
Civilians in areas where sirens are sounding are instructed to remain in bomb shelters until further notice.
end
The missiles were fired after the deadline
Several hurt, including some critically, after Beersheba building hit by Iran missile
Islamic Republic fires several salvos of missiles before ceasefire announced by Trump takes effect * Iranian FM denies agreeing to end of war but says that if Israel halts strikes, so will Iran
A building in the southern city of Beersheba is seen after being struck by an Iranian ballistic missile, July 24, 2025. (Social media; used in accordance with clause 27a of the copyright law)
end
Medics treating 3 people in critical condition after Beersheba missile strike
Magen David Adom says it is treating three people in critical condition, one person who is moderately hurt, and five lightly injured at the scene of the ballistic missile impact in Beersheba.
Three hrs before Israeli is to stop/Iran agreed to stop 3 hrs ago)
Iranian FM Clarifies That If Israel Holds Fire, So will Iran: Fighting ‘Until The Very Last Minute’
Monday, Jun 23, 2025 – 10:00 PM
Update(2200ET): The ceasefire is going to be shaky and likely difficult to maintain given that right up until the very moment it is to go into effect Tehran was on the receiving end of very intense Israeli warplane attacks. And Iran’s Foreign Minister too said Iran hit back overnight:
“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute,” said FM Araghchi on X.
IRANIAN TELEVISION: ISRAEL ASSASSINATED NUCLEAR SCIENTIST MOHAMMAD REZA SIDDIQI IN ITS RECENT ATTACKS
But shortly before that above latest statement, there was this by the top Iranian diplomat:
What Tehran was looking like overnight, right up to ceasefire zero hour:
It’s anything but certain whether it will hold, but likely the White House is putting pressure on Tel Aviv to at least play nice for now, so Trump can take his ‘victory lap’ and declare mission accomplished. And yet, the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment stockpile is unknown.
The status of the ceasefire itself may not become clear until the daylight hours…
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel may be voided, as Israel is using the final 30 minutes before it takes effect to assassinate Iranian leadership and rain fire down on Tehran.
If the attacks do not stop by 3:30 AM Tel Aviv time, Israel will have already violated the… pic.twitter.com/TgIeyg91Qg
Update: Fox is reporting,“President Trump spoke with Qatar’s Emir and informed him the U.S. got Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Iran. The President asked Qatar to help persuade Iran to do the same, following that Vice President Vance coordinated with Qatar’s Prime Minister on the details. This effort proved successful and, following discussions with the Qatari PM, the Iranians agreed. The deal was coordinated at the highest level by the President and Vice President and the Qatari Emir and Prime minister directly.”
“Despite having been attacked just hours earlier, the Qataris set aside their grievances and prioritized regional security to get the deal done,” this source added.
Reuters is reporting that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire, which at the very least will provide a respite to the tit-for-tat missiles. More from Reuters:
Qatar Brokered Iran’s Ceasefire Deal After U.S. Request
Qatari PM secured Tehran’s approval following Trump’s outreach to Emir after Iran’s strike on U.S. base.
Doha played key role in halting Israel-Iran conflict
* * *
Update: Shortly after 6pm, futures jumped and oil slumped even more in one of its biggest intraday reversals on record, after Trump announced on his Truth Social account that Iran and Israel had “fully agreed” to a “Complete and Total ceasefire” which will takes place at approximately midnight ET, “when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions“, and will last for 12 hours, at which time Trump says that “War will be considered, ENDED!”
The president adds that “on the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
The problem for now, however, is that the “fully-agreed upon ceasefire” announcement is news to Iran, with Al-Mayadeen reporting that “there is no confirmation from official Iranian sources regarding Trump’s talk of a ceasefire”
#Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to comment on whether it had received a ceasefire proposal from the United States or whether #Tehran had accepted it — ISNA
… with CNN noting that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal…
… and Iran’s semi-official Mehr News going so fast as to claim that “the Zionist regime carried out attacks on Iran, Trump spread his delusions and announced an imaginary ceasefire between Iran and the United States.“
Yet not all the subsequent information is negative: according to Reuters, the US appears to be backchanneling with Qatar, which has been asked for help to persuade Iran to agree after Israel had already agreed, and also adds that Iran had reportedly secured an agreement to a ceasfire.
TRUMP AND VP VANCE DISCUSSED ISRAEL-IRAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL WITH QATAR’S EMIR AFTER IRANIAN ATTACKS ON AIRBASE IN QATAR ON MONDAY –OFFICIAL BRIEFED ON NEGOTIATIONS TO REUTERS
TRUMP TOLD EMIR THAT ISRAEL HAD AGREED TO CEASEFIRE AND ASKED FOR QATARI HELP TO PERSUADE IRAN TO ALSO AGREE –OFFICIAL BRIEFED TO REUTERS
QATAR’S PRIME MINISTER SECURED IRAN’S AGREEMENT TO U.S. CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL IN CALL WITH TEHRAN -OFFICIAL BRIEFED TO REUTERS
And now we wait to see just who has agreed to what.
* * *
Summary:The mainstream media and US officials are collectively reporting it’s all over folks – and there’s currently a surprisingly open level of acknowledgement that this ‘retaliation’ on US bases was telegraphed and even coordinated between Iran and Qatar (and that yes, the US knew about it). Tehran is saying the same number of missiles were used in the short-lived assault as were used by US bombers against its nuclear facilities.
“Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend,” Bloomberg is reporting. And CNN is currently even saying (based on its correspondent on the ground) that the skies over Tehran have grown quiet, after many days of constant strike waves by Israeli warplanes. The US military is saying all missiles were intercepted over Qatar. Airspace over Bahrain, Kuwait, and Dubai have already been reopened.
Certainly markets have reacted consistent to this off-ramp narrative as well, as if it was all baked in: “One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said the attack was a typical example of an ‘off-ramp’ escalation and warned it was more difficult to understand whether — and at what point — Israel would stop its own military activities in the region,” Bloomberg continues. The same report cites Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, who points to the obvious: “It feels choreographed and intentional. The Iranians get to tell their population they struck a mighty blow against the US, even if they didn’t, and Trump has the room now to decide not to retaliate.”
The Trump White House is now signaling it currently has no plans to launch a ‘retaliation’ strike in the wake of today’s Iranian attacks on US assets in the Gulf. Most reports are claiming that no missiles actually struck the ground at a US base, but it could be that this information will get suppressed regardless. No deaths or injuries have been reported. Trump’s statement in the aftermath ‘thanking’ Iran, ironically enough…
President Trump is essentially saying ‘mission accomplished’ and has declared that the three nuclear facilities struck by US bombers over the weekend were totally destroyed. But the big questions remain:
1) Will Netanyahu and the Israelis play ball with the ‘off-ramp’ opportunity?
2) Most importantly, where is the estimated 400kg of Iran’s enriched uranium now?
To some degree, more ‘known unknowns’ (cue Rumsfeld) have been created in the wake of Trump’s alleged destruction of Iran’s enrichment facilities. Perhaps the Iranians will now hasten to begin the actual secretive nuclear bomb program?
* * *
Update(1335ET): NY Times is reporting that advanced notice was given, which appears confirmation that plans of the ‘retaliation’ attack were leaked beforehand and was in many ways telegraphed publicly.
“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American airbase in Qatar with Qatar officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans,” per the NY Times’ reporting.
War theater? Or just one big test of US-supplied anti-air defense hardware? One regional journalist and pundit writes:
So far this is looking like the response we got in 2020 in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. A telegraphed attack on US base that did not result in fatalities but is “face saving” for the Iranian regime.
Some are claiming missile impact on some targets, which would indeed be a very serious development. But Qatar’s Al-Arabi is saying there were no Iranian missile attacks on Iraq’s Ain al-Assad base, which hosts significant US forces.
end
IRAN/ISRAEL
THEN IRAN OFFICIALLY BREAKS THE CEDASEFIRE WITH BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK
Iran breaks ceasefire with ballistic missile attack, an hour after Israel confirmed truce
4 killed in earlier ballistic missile strike on residential building in Beersheba * Trump: ‘Ceasefire in effect. Please do not violate it’
4 killed in Beersheba as Iran fires multiple missile salvos just before ceasefire
Six barrages of rockets target areas throughout the country ahead of Trump’s 7 a.m. truce; missile hits residential building in southern city, causing deaths and injuries
A building in the southern city of Beersheba is seen after being struck by an Iranian ballistic missile, June 24, 2025 (Magen David Adom)
Four people were killed and at least 22 others injured Tuesday morning when Iran fired six missile barrages in quick succession at Israel in the final hours before the start of a 7 a.m. ceasefire (Israel time) announced by US President Donald Trump.
Both Israel and Iran subsequently said they had accepted the truce, seemingly ending 12 days of fighting.
Starting shortly after 5 a.m., missiles repeatedly targeted the country’s center, north and south, setting off sirens and sending millions of Israelis to bomb shelters.
Two missiles were fired at Beersheba in a salvo at 5:40 a.m., with one being intercepted and another striking the sixth floor of an apartment complex in the southern city, causing extensive destruction, including collapsing part of the building.
The building was relatively new, and homes had their own reinforced rooms. However, the missile directly hit two safe rooms, killing those inside them, according to a preliminary probe by Home Front Command. One of the bomb safe rooms was destroyed by the impact, the probe found.
Three members of one family were killed in one of the safe rooms, while the fourth person was killed in the second reinforced room.
The reinforced rooms are designed to sustain the shockwave of ballistic missiles as well as shrapnel — though not a direct strike from a large explosive warhead. Home Front Command says shelters are still the safest place to be during ballistic missile attacks.
The Israeli Air Force was investigating why the missile was not intercepted by air defenses.
The Magen David Adom emergency service identified three of the fatalities as a woman in her 40s, a man in his 40s and a man in his 20s. Details on the fourth were not immediately released.
In addition to the four killed, MDA said it treated two others in moderate condition and 20 others lightly hurt or suffering acute anxiety. Three people were extracted alive from beneath the rubble.
Other buildings nearby were also damaged.
People evacuating a building next to an apartment block hit by an Iranian missile, where several people were killed, in Beersheba, Israel, June 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
Outside the ruined building, the shells of burned-out cars littered the streets. Broken glass and rubble covered the area. Hundreds of emergency workers gathered to search for anyone else trapped inside.
Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba said the hospital was treating 10 people, two of whom were in moderate condition, with the rest lightly injured.
Some 20 ballistic missiles were launched by Iran in the six salvos, according to Israel Defense Forces assessments. Most of the missiles were intercepted by air defense systems.
In Nof HaGalil in the north of the country, a man was seriously injured, apparently hurting himself while seeking shelter, medics said. The man suffered a head injury and was found unconscious, MDA reported.
MDA said it did not receive any other reports of people who’d injured themselves while running to shelters, a common occurrence during attacks.
A Soroka Medical Center trauma team takes care of a wounded individual, June 24, 2025. (Courtesy/Soroka)
The first barrage began around 5 a.m., and the final missile warnings arrived shortly after 7 a.m. Amid the attacks, sirens repeatedly went off throughout the country, with civilians repeatedly instructed to enter bomb shelters.
Some three hours after the first barrage was fired, Home Front Command finally said people no longer needed to remain close to shelters.
Strikes in Iran and ceasefire in effect
Meanwhile, the IDF said that in the morning hours, the Israel Air Force struck eight Iranian ballistic missile launchers in western Iran, which were primed to immediately fire at Israel. The military issued footage of the strikes.
The airstrikes foiled a larger attack, according to the military. It was unclear if the strikes took place before the Iranian missile salvos or as they were launched.
Both Tehran and Jerusalem indicated they intended to do so.
The Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement that “In light of achieving the objectives of the campaign, and in complete coordination with President Trump, Israel agreed to the president’s proposal for a mutual ceasefire.”
“Israel will forcefully respond to any violation of the ceasefire,” the statement warned.
Iran’s Press TV said that the ceasefire came into effect with the conclusion of the multiple missile barrages fired at Israel.
There were no reports of Israeli strikes in Iran after 4 a.m. Heavy Israeli strikes continued in Iranian cities until shortly before that hour.
Israeli Air Force fighter jets hit dozens of Iranian military targets in Tehran overnight, dropping over 100 munitions, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said in a press conference after the ceasefire took effect. He said the strikes again targeted the “headquarters of the SPND nuclear project” and weapon production sites in the Iranian capital.
Defrin also said that “the IDF fully met all of its objectives” that it had determined ahead of the war. “The chief of staff has instructed the IDF to remain on high alert and prepared for a powerful response to any violation of the ceasefire,” he said.
Trump’s announcement that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” came soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a US military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. The US was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties.
Trump’s announcement on Truth Social said the ceasefire beginning about midnight Washington time would bring an “Official END” to the war.
Sunday’s US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities came nine days into Israel’s sweeping assault, which began June 13, targeting Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites, and the country’s ballistic missile program.
Israel said the campaign was necessary to prevent the Islamic Republic from realizing its declared plan to destroy the Jewish state.
US President Donald Trump walks on the South Lawn upon arriving at the White House, Saturday, June 21, 2025, in Washington. (AP/Jose Luis Magana)
Iran, which avowedly seeks Israel’s destruction, has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. However, it has enriched uranium to levels that have no peaceful application, has obstructed international inspectors from checking its nuclear facilities, and expanded its ballistic missile capabilities. Israel says Iran has recently taken steps toward weaponization.
Iran retaliated to Israel’s attacks by launching over 550 ballistic missiles and around 1,000 drones at Israel. Iran’s missile attacks killed 28 people and wounded thousands in Israel, according to health officials and hospitals. Missiles have hit apartment buildings, a university, and a hospital, causing heavy damage.
Lawmakers call for retaliation against Tehran after Iran violated the newly announced ceasefire, launching a ballistic missile at northern Israel.
“Tehran will tremble,” tweets far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet.
“Quiet will be answered with quiet, missiles will be answered with…?” tweets Otzma Yehudit lawmaker Limor Son Har-Melech.
“Three and a half hours after the US president announced a ceasefire, there is shooting from Iran toward northern Israel. We must not absorb it, we must not ignore it, we have to respond immediately,” posts opposition party Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman.
“Any violation of [Iran’s] will be met with an appropriate response,” declares lawmaker Tali Gotliv, while her fellow Likud MK Avichai Boaron calls for strikes, “with full force,” against symbols of the Iranian regime.
end
WELL PAST THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
Katz instructs IDF to ‘respond forcefully’ after Iran breaks ceasefire with missile attack
Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in an assessment, June 20, 2025. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)
Defense Minister Israel Katz says he has instructed the IDF to “respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran.”
Two ballistic missiles were fired from Iran at Israel after a ceasefire was supposed to take effectץ Both were intercepted.
THE BEERSHEBA ATTACK FROM ZEROHEDGE
Trump: “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 03:20 AM
Update(0320ET): As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran exchanged lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least five Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance:
Israel claimed Iran fired missiles after the deadline, an accusation Araghchi refuted in an X post:
“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute.”
In Iran’s last-minute act of retaliation, at least five people were killed and 26 injured in an enormous explosion that devastated a seven-story apartment building in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba. That toll may rise as responders continue to sort through rubble and incinerated automobiles. “We emphasize again—do not enter the scene!” said Israel’s Fire and Rescue Authority. “The arrival of civilians endangers public safety and makes it difficult for rescue forces to operate.”
Meanwhile, Trump continued his series of manic social media posts about the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the ensuing ceasefire, posting, “In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect ‘hit,’ late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!”
Christening the war with a name that depends fully on an enduring ceasefire, Trump earlier declared the conflict “should be called THE 12 DAY WAR.” Perhaps appropriately, that moniker harkens back to 1967’s Six-Day War, which — contrary to Zionist mythology — was also initiated by Israel. The Six-Day War resulted in Israel’s seizure of the West Bank, Gaza, Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and the Sinai Peninsula. Infamously, it was also during the Six-Day War that Israel executed an hours-long, broad-daylight, multi-faceted attack on the well-marked USS Liberty, killing 34 American service members and wounding 173.
There’s already grumbling about the nascent peace among right-wing Israelis and Israel’s US-based boosters. While Netanyahu asked his cabinet ministers to refrain from commenting on the ceasefire, hawkish Yisrael Beytenu party chairman Avigdor Liberman decried the absence of an Iranian “unconditional surrender,” saying “Already at the beginning of the war, I warned that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving a wounded lion.” Similarly, Dan Illouz of Netanyahu’s Likud Party asked, “Has the enemy surrendered? Or is this just a round we won on points?” Striking a different tone, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said the Netanyahu government should now end its war in Gaza, saying, “It’s time to [finish] there too. Return the hostages, end the war. Israel needs to start rebuilding.”
In the United States, Israel allies who thought they finally had their long-awaited, full-fledged American war on Iran are not happy. While they may still achieve their goal of leaving yet another Middle East society in ruin and despair in pursuit of Israeli regional supremacy, non-interventionists can at least enjoy the neocon heartbreak for as long as it lasts:
Katz orders an attack on Tehran after the ceasefire violation;:
(JerusalemPost)
‘Respond forcefully’: Katz slams ceasefire violation, orders IDF strike in Tehran
Iran fired two missiles towards northern Israel on Tuesday, leading Katz to say the IDF must respond to the ceasefire violation.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz attends a Holocaust memorial day ceremony held at the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament in Jerusalem, April 24, 2025. Israel marks the annual memorial day commemorating the six million Jews killed by the Nazis in the Holocaust during World War Two.(photo credit: ARIE LEIB ABRAMS/FLASH 90)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJUNE 24, 2025 11:32Updated: JUNE 24, 2025 12:31
Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the IDF to strike in Tehran after Iran launched missiles towards Israel’s North when the ceasefire was technically in effect.
“I have instructed the IDF to respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran,” Katz said in a statement.
Though there were no reports of injuries in Israel, Katz said that the new policy is to respond with strength to even a small violation of the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump overnight between Monday and Tuesday.
The defense minister said that the category of targets would be similar to those Israel struck on Monday, which included Basij headquarters, an internal security IRGC headquarters, and the Evin prison entrance where the regime holds and tortures political prisoners.
“In light of the serious violation of the ceasefire carried out by the Iranian regime, we will strike with force,” Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir added.
People take shelter in a public bomb shelter in Haifa as sirens sound, warning of incoming ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward Israel. June 23, 2025. (credit: Flash90)
Iran shoots missiles at North
Early reports indicated that IDF air defenses shot down two ballistic missiles fired by Iran.
It was unclear whether the two missiles were fired with authorization by top levels of the regime or by a miscommunication at lower levels, but Israel’s new policy is to respond to any ceasefire violation regardless of the reason for the violation.
This has also been Israel ‘s policy for enforcing the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon since November 27, 2024.
US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, June 24, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Here’s a transcript of much of what US President Donald Trump just said when speaking to reporters and answering their questions on the White House lawn:
“I’m not happy that Israel’s going out now. There was one rocket that I guess was fired overboard [by Iran]. It was after the time limit, and it missed its target. And now Israel’s going out. These guys gotta calm down. Ridiculous…”
“I didn’t like plenty of things I saw yesterday. I didn’t like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn’t have to unload. And I didn’t like the fact that… The [Iranian] retaliation was very strong. But in all fairness, Israel unloaded a lot.”
“And now I hear that Israel just went out because they felt [the deal] was violated by one rocket that didn’t land anywhere. That’s not what we want, I’ll tell you. And I’m telling you, I’m not happy about that, Israel, either.”
“All I do is play both sides.”
“We have to have Israel calm down, because they went on a mission this morning. I gotta get Israel to calm down now.”
“I think they both violated [the ceasefire]. I’m not sure they did it intentionally. They couldn’t bring people back. I don’t like the fact that Israel went out this morning at all. I’m going to see if I can stop it.”
President Trump on Israel and Iran: "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing." pic.twitter.com/xrztmebALZ
“[Iran’s nuclear program] has been completely demolished. Those B-2 pilots did an unbelievable job… Those pilots hit their targets. Those targets were obliterated. … Iran will never rebuild its nuclear… That place [Fordo] is under rock. That place is demolished… That place is gone… Take a look at the pin pricks.”
“Yeah I do [believe that Iran is still committed to the deal]. They violated. But Israel violated too…|
“Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I’ve never seen before. The biggest load that we’ve seen. I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay, now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either. But I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning because of one rocket that didn’t land, that was shot, perhaps by mistake, that didn’t land. I’m not happy about that. ”
“You know what? We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. Do you understand that?”
At least one ballistic missile was launched from Iran at Israel in the latest attack, after the ceasefire was supposed to take effect. The missile was likely intercepted.
There are no immediate reports of impacts or injuries.
Sirens are sounding in northern Israel amid a new ballistic missile attack from Iran, after a ceasefire was supposed to take effect.
Civilians in areas where sirens are sounding are instructed to remain in bomb shelters until further notice.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
Israel strikes Iran hard after their ceasefire violations.
IDF symbolically strikes in Tehran after Trump orders Netanyahu to turn planes around
As Netanyahu and Trump spoke, senior US officials told Iran through Qatar to stop any provocations and attacks against Israel.
Smoke rises following an Israeli attack in Tehran, Iran, June 18, 2025.(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)ByYONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 24, 2025 14:46Updated: JUNE 24, 2025 15:49
Explosions were heard in northern Tehran after US President Donald Trump called for all Israeli fighter jets to leave Iran’s airspace.
IDF sources have confirmed to The Jerusalem Post that the air force did in fact strike one radar north of Tehran. A symbolic strike to straddle the need to respond to Iran’s attack on the North, while respecting Trump’s demand to do nothing or at most respond symbolically.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed this strike on the radar system, adding that it was in response to Iran’s violations of the ceasefire agreement.
After the ceasefire went into effect at 7:00 a.m., at 7:06 a.m., Iran launched a missile at Israel, and then two more were launched at 10:25 a.m. All were either intercepted or fell in open areas, and there were no casualties, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, prior to the 7:00 a.m. ceasefire with Iran, Israel heavily struck the heart of Tehran, targeting regime facilities and eliminating hundreds of Basij members and Iranian security forces.
A security guard stands on a street, during early hours of ceasefire, in Tehran, Iran, June 24, 2025. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Just before the ceasefire went into effect, Iran launched a barrage of missiles, one of which killed four in Beersheba.
Trump and Netanyahu’s phone call
The PMO said that Israel refrained from further strikes in Iran after Netanyahu’s conversation with Trump, during which, the office stressed, Trump “expressed his immense appreciation for Israel, which had achieved all of its war objectives. The president also expressed confidence in the stability of the ceasefire.”
As Netanyahu and Trump spoke, senior US officials relayed a message to Iran through Qatar: “No further provocations, cease all attacks,” a source told the Post.
The US president had appeared to be irate at the potential for Israeli strikes in Tehran.
Trump and Netanyahu held the phone call shortly after Trump made comments, saying, “Israel has to calm down, I have to get Israel to calm down,” he said. “I’m gonna see if I can stop it.”
In the call, Trump demanded that Netanyahu “completely cancel the attack.” Netanyahu responded that a “strike is necessary,” as per a senior Israeli official.
“I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, ‘OK now you have 12 hours,’ you don’t go out to the first hour, just drop everything you have on, so I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either,” he said.
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
END
this is probably the truth on what has happened in Iran:
Iran starting from zero on nukes and missiles after ‘remarkable’ war, Smotrich tells ‘Post’
Ben-Gvir asked Netanyahu to state regime change as war goal, continue campaign • Ceasefire not brought to a cabinet vote
Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich attends a press conference held on “Operation Rising Lion”, at the Ministry of Finance in Jerusalem on June 23, 2025.(photo credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)ByAMICHAI STEINJUNE 24, 2025 11:03Updated: JUNE 24, 2025 12:23
Iran “is starting from zero” with both its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday morning after the conclusion of a 12-day war between Israel and Iran.
“The war is a remarkable achievement,” Smotrich said. “They [Iran] are starting from zero in both their nuclear program and missile capabilities, and I do not believe they will resume the program because it would mean confronting the United States.”
Smotrich warned that Israel would strike Iran again, “even if they do attempted to restart” the nuclear program, adding that Israel must act against Iran by sustaining sanctions and economic pressure to bring down the regime.
“Ultimately, Iran fully grasped the balance of power – it was defeated and pleaded for a ceasefire with the State of Israel. They have no nuclear program, no missiles, and we executed extraordinary targeted operations and destroyed critical infrastructure,” the finance minister told the Post.
“For three days, they shut down the internet, so the Iranian public was unaware of the humiliation. Now, every Iranian citizen, including those in the capital, Tehran, will witness this defeat.”
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir speaks during a rally in support of the current Israeli government, outside the Supreme Court in Jerusalem, on June 5, 2025. (credit: Arie Leib Abrams/Flash90)
Ben-Gvir calls on PM to extend war
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting late on Monday night, along with the six cabinet members who had convened before and during the war.
In the meeting, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called on Netanyahu to continue to campaign in Iran for a “few more days” and declare forcing the collapse of Iran’s Islamic regime as one of Israel’s stated war goals.
“I congratulate the prime minister on the accomplishment, but the regime’s collapse must be declared a stated war goal; we can extend the operation for a few more days,” Ben-Gvir said in the cabinet meeting.
“A historic opportunity has presented itself to deal a death blow” on Iran’s remaining proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank, the national security minister aded, stating that “momentum must be maintained.”
The decision to bring the war in Iran to a close was not brought to a vote in the security cabinet meeting, the Post has learned.
ISRAEL HAMAS
pay no attention to these liars
21 killed by Israeli fire near Gaza aid distribution site, say Hamas-run authorities; no comment from IDF
Gaza’s Hamas-run civil defense agency says Israeli forces killed 21 people waiting for aid near a distribution site in the center of the Strip.
There is no comment from the Israel Defense Forces.
It is unclear at what time the reported shooting near the aid site took place. Earlier this month, the IDF warned Palestinians not to approach routes leading to Gaza Humanitarian Foundation sites between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. local time, describing these roads as closed military zones. However, the GHF has indicated it may be open during those hours.
The GHF has faced heavy scrutiny from other aid bodies, as well as the UN and foreign countries, which say that it does not sufficiently address the humanitarian needs in the war-torn Palestinian enclave.
Critics have also accused GHF of putting aid seekers in harm’s way, with operations beset by deadly incidents on a near-daily basis.
Israel says the mechanism is required to keep aid out of the hands of Hamas.
end
TURKEY
I wonder why?
Turkey Rejects Open-Door Policy For Refugees If Iran Falls Apart
Israeli and US attacks on Iran risk sparking a regional war or even triggering regime change in the country, a development that has concerned Turkish officials in Ankara since September. The Israeli strikes that began earlier this month initially targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and air defense systems.
Over time, however, Israel shifted its focus toward the Iranian government’s command structure and later moved on to domestic security buildings. For example, on Monday, Israeli forces reportedly targeted the internal headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as the notorious Evin prison, where political prisoners are held.
One Israeli minister even suggested that Israel was cooperating with the Iranian opposition, reinforcing Defence Minister Israel Katz’s public statements that Israel seeks regime change or at least aims to undermine the Tehran government.
That is a prospect that US President Donald Trump tried to normalize on Sunday night with a post on Truth Social. “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” he asked.
The Turkish government is acutely aware of the repercussions of regime-change operations and wars, having experienced the destabilizing effects of the 2003 US-led Iraqi invasion and, more recently, the 2011-24 Syrian [proxy] civil war. These conflicts have often resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing into Turkey and have disrupted key sectors such as energy and trade.
Turkish society remains highly sensitive about the presence of refugees, notably the 2.7 million Syrians, many of whom are now returning to Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. Experts and officials emphasize that there is currently no new wave of refugees.
However, several sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that as early as September, the Turkish government conducted in-depth studies on potential migration scenarios. They estimated that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran could push up to one million Iranian refugees towards the Turkish border.
Turkey has the experience. In 2012, then-foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu attempted to control the influx of Syrian refugees by capping their number at 100,000 and threatening to establish a safe zone in northern Syria. However, the number of refugees quickly surpassed three million in the following years, which taught Ankara a difficult lesson.
Now, sources say Ankara is unlikely to accept any refugees except those in urgent need of emergency assistance.
“If the worst-case scenario were to occur and there was a mass migration from Iran to Turkey, whether permanent or in transit, Ankara would fulfil its obligations under humanitarian law, but it would not implement an open-door policy,” Serhan Afacan, president of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, told Middle East Eye.
A Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Ankara would no longer apply an “open door” policy toward any neighbouring country in the event of a refugee wave. Iranians currently can enter Turkey without a visa.
An elite influx?
Many Turkish citizens are particularly wary of the possible arrival of the 4.5 million Afghans currently living in Iran. However, Afacan noted that millions of Turkish-speaking ethnic Azerbaijanis also live in Iran. He said that if they were to gather at the border, it could shift the debate in Turkey and stir nationalistic sentiments. “But at present, there are no indications that Turks in Iran are planning to migrate,” Afacan added.
Last week, sources from the Turkish defence ministry told journalists there is currently no sign of a refugee influx into Turkey. One source stated that additional security measures have been implemented along all borders, including with Iran, and there is no uncontrolled migration. The Turkish Armed Forces are said to be prepared for all possible scenarios arising from regional developments.
This raises the question of whether Turkey would allow Iranian elites, including government officials, to enter if their government collapses. Many Iranians have already bought homes or acquired Turkish citizenship through investment in recent years.
According to interior ministry data released this year, 76,000 Iranians hold residence permits in Turkey. At least 35,000 have purchased homes since 2019, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute data released in 2024.
It is unclear whether all these purchases were made to obtain Turkish citizenship, but a naturalisation consultancy expert told MEE that Iranians are among the top nationalities seeking Turkish citizenship. Between 2012 and 2024, a total of 384,000 homes were sold to foreigners.
Afacan said many Iranian officials and military officers already own property in Turkey. For instance, during the emergency elections following President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash last year, there was a major controversy over claims that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his family owned several luxurious apartments in an upscale Istanbul residence.
Afacan added that, as in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, albeit on a much smaller scale, a significant number of Iranian government officials would likely head to Turkey if the government were to fall.
“I do not believe that Turkey would close its doors to such individuals in that kind of scenario,” he said.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/middle east
Russia is not interested in Iran having a nuke. this is just lip service
(zerohedge)
Russia’s Lavrov Says ‘WW3 Could Be Near’ After US Drawn In To Iran War
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 09:35 AM
Israel and Iran’s renewed and intensifying attacks at the start of this week, just prior to President Trump desperately trying to enforce a ceasefire, saw Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warn that World War III “could be just around the corner” – especially following America’s entry into the conflict with the weekend bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.
He also called the B-2 bomber attacks authorized by Trump “irresponsible” and said they were in violation of international law. “This will be not peace and order, but complete chaos and, as [President Putin] said today, the third world war may be very close,” Lavrov said.
Since the Ukraine war began, Russia has initiated closer defense ties with Tehran, and has relied on a steady supply of Iranian Shahed drones. It has offered to assist Iran based on specific requests, but is unlikely to get engaged in any military action against Israel.
Lavrov’s comments focused ‘big picture’ and the unraveling of regional stability, and he connected the Mideast and Eastern European theatres. The ‘chaos’ sown by the US in the Middle East is parallel to the same in Ukraine, he explained.
“Their intention to use Ukraine against Russia is no longer hidden. Russia is demonized. Even the world demonized does not quite reflect this aggression, some kind of beastly one in rhetoric, in actions,” he added.
This certainly isn’t the first time the top Russian diplomat warned that Washington actions are preparing for potential WW3. For example last year, there was this:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a World War III warning to the U.S., saying that the West was “asking for trouble” by even considering Ukrainian requests to use supplied weapons to conduct strikes deep within Russian territory.
Discussions about using Western supplied missiles to strike Russia are tantamount to “playing with fire,” Lavrov told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday.
So it seems Moscow is now saying the US is also playing with fire in its attacks on Iran. There’s also been much speculation that Trump’s muscular and brazen actions are meant to signal China too.
Decades ago, Sen. Biden inadvertently predicted the future closer relations of ‘pariah’ states Russia, China, and Iran:
But if anything, Russia and China are sitting back watching the chaos unfold, as a desperate Trump seems to now be begging ‘America’s closest ally’ to halt the warplanes and abide by ceasefire. If Trump is unable to achieve ceasefire in the Middle East, Moscow and Beijing will surely take note of this too, and will use it as another black eye and charge against Washington.
end
IRAN
Iran Reopens Airspace To Commercial Flights As Ceasefire With Israel Finally Holds
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 11:16 AM
Update(1300ET): The ceasefire seems to finally be holding as of early evening local time, despite the ongoing accusations of earlier violations when it was to take effect.
“Both Israel and Iran wanted to stop the War, equally! It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!” President Trump said on Truth Social. Were they all destroyed?
And China has belatedly weighed in, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying China supports Iran in achieving a “genuine ceasefire” – but following Beijing’s condemnation of the US for striking the country’s nuclear sites.
“China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and, on that basis, achieving a genuine ceasefire so that people can return to normal life,” Wang expressed to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in a phone call.
But here is the clearest indicator yet that skies have cleared of Israeli warplanes and return fire over Tehran:
Iranian airspace partially reopened today, following the country’s ceasefire with Israel after 12 days of hostilities, according to aviation monitoring company FlightRadar24.
“Iranian airspace is now open to international arrivals and departures to/from Tehran with prior permission,” FlightRadar24 said on X. Iraqi airspace has also reopened, it added.
Also, Iranian media is currently airing footage of a large crowd assembled in central Tehran, in an act expressing solidarity with the country’s armed forces. IRNA, Fars, and Mehr are covering the gathering in Revolution Square. Now each side is declaring ‘victory’ to some extent, but whether the ceasefire will actually stick is anyone’s guess.
Update(1116ET): On Tuesday the head of Iran’s nuclear energy program vowed that the country will continue its nuclear program uninterrupted, despite the Trump-ordered weekend heavy bombings of three key nuclear and uranium enrichment sites.
AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) head Mohammad Eslami said on state television that “plans for restarting [the facilities] have been prepared in advance” and that measures ensuring continued production are in place.
“Despite the evil conspiracies of its enemies,” the AEOI said in the statement, “this organization will not allow the path of development of this national industry to be stopped.”
Head of #Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization: “We’ve taken necessary measures & are assessing the damaged areas. Plans for revival [of #nuclear facilities] were pre-arranged, and our current strategy ensures no disruption to production & services. pic.twitter.com/3OzppGj6TH
“This action, contrary to international law, was unfortunately carried out in the shadow of indifference and even with the cooperation of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” the statement read.
This is not surprising, but what is surprising is just how bold and provocative a statement that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just made. On the question of Iran’s now ‘missing’ (or ‘unknown whereabouts’) enriched uranium stockpiles, he laid out that Iran has every incentive to hide it from IAEA inspectors.
“What guarantees are there that the IAEA will not leak this information to the US or Israel?” he posed in public statements on the American military action against Iran, while emphasizing that arms control will fail due to these American-Israeli surprise attacks which killed negotiations.
Lavrov criticized the IAEA Director for demanding to know where Iran's enriched uranium is stored. What guarantees are there that the IAEA will not leak this information to the US or Israel? — Arms control will not be the same after this surprise attack; everyone will lose. pic.twitter.com/wPR3GA2dj7
Indeed the Iranians too have long feared that international inspectors could be conduits of information on sensitive facilities for Israeli and US intelligence. And now these same facilities are being targeted for destruction.
* * *
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
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LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
Trump Announces Israel and Iran Agreed to a ‘Complete and Total’ CeasefirePresident Trump on Monday evening announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a total ceasefire in 6 hours.“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final …READ THE FULL REPORT
Iran Launches Attack on US BasesTwo days after America destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran has struck back.Iran launched missiles at the Al Udei Air Base near Doha, Qatar, on Monday, according to the Times of Israel.Explosions were heard in the skies over Doha, Qatar’s capital. Unconfirmed video showed missile explosions said to be Patriot missile intercepts of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles.Footage captures the launch of …READ THE FULL REPORT
Supreme Court Hands Trump Huge Win on Deporting IllegalsThe Supreme Court ruled on Monday that deportations of migrants to third countries can continue without additional due process requirements that were imposed by a district court judge, says ABC News.This will allow the case to continue through the lower courts.The order came after a deportation flight carrying men from Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Cuba, and Mexico was diverted to Djibouti …READ THE FULL REPORT
Watch: Rubio Destroys CBS Host Over ‘Gotcha’ Question on IranSecretary of State Marco Rubio and CBS host Margaret Brennan clashed over whether U.S. intelligence has confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered the development of a nuclear weapon, with Rubio dismissing Brennan’s question as “irrelevant.”On Face the Nation Sunday, Brennan asked Rubio if the United States had “intelligence that the Supreme Leader had ordered weaponization” of the uranium. Rubio, who …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Sends Furious Response to Putin Ally’s Nuclear Threat: ‘Did He Really Say That?’President Donald Trump came down hard Monday on a top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said multiple nations could give Iran a nuclear warhead.Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, said, “A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads,” according to Newsweek.“Did …READ THE FULL REPORT
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Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefirePresident Donald Trump announced Monday evening that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, following a weekend of high-stakes military action that saw the U.S. strike key Iranian nuclear facilities. “Congratulations to everyone!” Trump declared on Truth Social. “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and …READ MORE
Trump Nemesis Stuns With Rare Praise After Iran StrikeA prominent liberal voice is drawing attention after publicly backing President Donald Trump’s decision to launch military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, known for his frequent critiques of Trump, told viewers that the strikes were not only justified but exactly what any responsible commander-in-chief would have done under similar circumstances.The airstrikes, described by the White House as a …READ MORE
MAGA Rep. Raises Red Flags Over Chilling DiscoveryRep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) is raising alarms after revealing that a vessel carrying a group of Iranian nationals was intercepted near the Bahamas, just miles from the U.S. coastline. Luna, speaking with Florida’s Voice News, called the incident a clear national security threat, intensifying concerns about potential sleeper cell activity following recent U.S. military strikes in the Middle East.“Am I …READ MORE
Iran Escalates After Trump’s Strike Sends ShockwavesIran escalated tensions in the Middle East on Monday by launching at least 10 ballistic missiles targeting key U.S. military bases, including the massive Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and a base in Iraq. The missile strikes are widely seen as retaliation for President Donald Trump’s recent bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a serious intensification of hostilities.Al Udeid Air …READ MORE
Diddy defense may invoke Iran conflict in closing argument, reportThe music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs‘ defense may attempt to deflect from his federal sex trafficking charges by trying to invoke the Iran conflict. Sources close to the case say Diddy’s legal team is weighing whether to reference the recent escalation in the Middle East — particularly Iran’s missile retaliation and U.S. military responses — during closing arguments this week. …READ MORE
MIKE EVERY/OR PICTON OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Off Ramps, On Ramps
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 12:40 PM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
Markets are in a jubilant mood as Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to begin within hours. Brent crude prices have fallen by more than 7% at time of writing to $71.48/bbl and US equity indices have finished the day higher across the board. Equity futures in North America and Asia are also pointing higher.
Trump’s announcement followed an Iranian missile strike on the United States’ Al Udeid base in Qatar. The New York Times reports that Iran had provided backchannel notification of the impending retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to Qatar and the United States prior to the attack. That was subsequently confirmed in a ‘Truth’ by Donald Trump who described the Iranian attack as “weak”, but also thanked Iran for issuing the heads up.
Trump subsequently took to Truth Social again to announce the ceasefire agreement which he says will effectively end what he is calling the 12 Day War. An Iranian official has since confirmed that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire, raising hopes that an effective off-ramp has been found and that strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan will not drag the US into a protracted regime-change effort.
The ceasefire announcement follows earlier reports that Israel was seeking to seize on the success of US strikes and end the war in coming days. Unnamed officials had reportedly told the Times of Israel that Jerusalem was willing to end its bombing campaign if Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program. Up until now Iran has remained defiant that it would continue its nuclear program and, critically, its controversial drive to enrich its own uranium. So, is there some agreement to come on the nuclear program, or has this simply been placed in the “too hard” basket for now?
While the US claims to have ‘obliterated’ Iran’s enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, the extent of the destruction is not completely clear and it seems that up to 400kg of uranium already enriched to near weapons grade remains unaccounted for. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday that Iran’s enrichment program – including the pursuit of nuclear weapons – would continue, and that “other” countries had expressed willingness to supply Iran with warheads.
That might have been pure bluff as Russia, still reeling from the loss of a friendly regime in Syria, seeks to stave off the loss of another friendly regime in central Asia. In (another) post to Truth Social Trump seemed to treat it as such, criticising Medvedev for casual use of the “N word” (nuclear) while making pointed reference to the technological superiority of the US’s nuclear submarines, which had just fired 30 Tomahawk missiles at the Esfahan facility. The subtext was reasonably clear: “you’re not the only one with extensive nuclear capabilities in the region.”
While the Middle East and energy prices seem to be on course to return to something resembling the status quo ante bellum (aside from Iran’s enrichment capabilities, air defences and ballistic missile stocks), the NATO summit today kicks off in the Netherlands with the FT reporting that Poland is upset that Spain has been granted an exemption to the 5% of GDP defence spending target, and that Belgium is set to seek a similar exemption. Poland’s indignation is easy to understand given its shared border with Russian client state Belarus and its plans to get very close to the 5% spending target this year.
The position taken by Spain (and Belgium) underlines some of the inherent contradictions of European collective defence that seem destined to require strengthened supra-national structures to overcome. Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems to understand that Germany – Europe’s largest economy and more geographically Eastern than other big economies – will need to take the lead for collective security to work.
Merz reiterated yesterday that Europe can no longer “free-ride” on the United States and must step up defence investment to achieve “strategic independence”. That’s all well and good, but as Mark Rutte pointed out to Chatham House last week, Russia currently produces more ammunition in three months than the entire NATO alliance can in a year, and much of the NATO contribution comes from the United States. Ahead of the NATO summit, our European team examines the conditions for success of boosted European defence spending here.
Critically, Europe lacks a shared nuclear deterrent. Emmanuel Macron has recently indicated that he is open to French nuclear weapons being deployed in EU countries to the East, but that they must remain under complete French control. This raises questions about whether a forward-deployed French nuclear deterrent would be a deterrent at all, especially in light of comments that Macron made in 2022 where he said that the French nuclear doctrine was based on the vital interests of France, and that if Russia were to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine “or in the region”, this would not meet the threshold for the use of French nuclear weapons. Consequently, Merz remains clear-eyed that French nuclear weapons are not a credible substitute for the US nuclear deterrent.
Meanwhile, Aussie Prime Minister Albanese will not be attending the Indo-Pacific partners event at the NATO summit tomorrow. That event features Donald Trump, who Albanese is likely anxious to meet with following a US decision to place the AUKUS program (the centrepiece of Australia’s defence planning) under review. Australia will instead send Deputy PM Richard Marles, who will presumably attempt to secure assurances from Trump that the US really will let Australia buy some of those nuclear submarines that Trump was bragging about on Truth Social overnight.
That effort may be complicated by news today that Australia will add YouTube to its social media ban for under-16s, an effective non-tariff barrier for US tech that we explore in a new report on Australian economic statecraft. Does sharing the crown jewel of your defence capabilities with allies who resist your wishes on trade, sanctions and defence spending sound very “America First” when you have insufficient supply for your own needs? Perhaps not.
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS//GLOBAL/ENERGY/
for now Trump allows China to buy Iranian oil. Let us see what happens with the tariff negotiations
(zerohedge)
Crude Slides After Trump Says China “Can Continue To Purchase Oil From Iran”
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 09:57 AM
Trump continued his crusade against high oil prices, and US energy producers (recall yesterday he posted “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”), when the President posted on Truth Social that “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran”…
… which of course they have been doing, purchasing pretty much all the oil Iran is exporting (with the “Asia/Unknown” in the chart below primarily signaling Singapore which is also effectively China).
It was not immediately clear whether Trump’s post meant that the US was removing sanctions on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil. If so, that would explain the quid-pro-quo that took place behind the scenes, with Trump convincing Tehran to lay its arms down in exchange for Iran no longer having to hide its exports to China, which were technically sanctioned but nobody enforced said sanctions as it would mean a spike in oil prices.
And ultimately while the Trump post meant just a continuation of the status quo – because whether with or without sancitons China would always import Iranian oil – his intention was clear: hammer oil even more, and sure enough, WTI crude which was already reeling after a near record swing over the past 24 hours, slumped to session lows around $65 before recovering.
At this point, it is clear that it won’t be Iran, or any foreign producer, that ends up taking the hit, but rather US shale that is forced to pump much less at ever lower prices, until eventually the first axiom in commodity trading comes true, namely that the solution to low oil prices, are low oil prices… and the resulting collapse in supply as unprofitable companies either shut down or are liquidated. Unfortunately, neither helps makes American energy producers great again.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1599 UP 0.0002 PTS OR 2 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 145.10 DOWN 0.806 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3610 UP .0065 OR 65 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3712 DOWN 0.0017 (CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 38.48 PTS OR 1.15%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 487.94 PTS OR 2.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.00%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 498.94 PTS OR 2.06%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.48 PTS OR 1.15%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.00 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 436.47 PTS OR 1.14%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3367.95
silver:$36.13
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.64 DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.026% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.423% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.219 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.510 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5490 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1588 DOWN 0.0009 OR 09 basis points
USA/Japan: 145.14 DOWN 0.775 OR YEN IS UP 78 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5170 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0014 OR 14 BASIS pts to 1.3717
‘Ceasefire’ Sends Nasdaq 100 To Record High; Bitcoin Jumps As Gold & Oil Dump
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 08:00 PM
The ‘ceasefire’ in the Middle East trumped another slump in sentiment today to send stocks higher, and oil and gold prices lower (geopolitical risk premia reduced). But the sentiment slump dragged Treasury yields and the dollar lower as rate-cut expectations continued higher.
Geopolitical uncertainty plunged even more today (with global trade policy uncertainty already testing YTD lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s Geopolitical risk basket (composed of defense, oil producers, and oil tankers) also tumbled, now well below the levels when Iran-Israel tension started 12 days ago…
Source: Bloomberg
Both ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ macro data have started to tumble together…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which sent rate-cut expectations higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbling (whole curve was down 6bps or so) during the US session (after bonds were sold overnight – the opposite of yesterday)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and Stocks surging, led by Nasdaq…
Source: Bloomberg
…with the Nasdaq 100 closing at a new record high (and S&P above 6100)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is up a stunning 35% from the April 7th lows (the biggest close to close bounce since the COVID bailout) and coincidentally, today saw a Golden Cross (50DMA > 200DMA) triggered…
Source: Bloomberg
After a slow start to the year, the NDX vs SPX ratio is (finally) starting to break-out…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading desk notes that the Retail bid remains present as squeezy pockets of the market continue to outperform…
…with Bitcoin sensitive basket (GSCBBTC1 Index) + 5.9%, Non profitable tech (GSXUNPTC Index) and liquid most short basket (GSXUMSAL Index) +3.5%, & our memes basket +3.2%…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX tumbled back to a 17 handle (erasing all the Israel-Iran risk)…
Additionally, they noted that yesterday saw 1.1 trillion SPX calls traded (a LOT finished ITM). That is among the top 10 sessions of all time…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Simply put (no pun intended), nobody is trading stocks anymore, all just calls.
“ATHs, dealers short gamma, volatility control set to buy $100B+, and July’s a strong seasonal for NDX. Positioning is light, hype is absent — classic melt-up setup…”
…to infinity and beyond!
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar continued its slide today, back near the lows going back to July 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was also dumped, but bounced off $3300 today…
Source: Bloomberg
…along with crude oil, which is now back below pre-Israel-Iran war levels…
Source: Bloomberg
…while crypto was bid along with tech stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, today saw Fed Chair Powell grilled by Congress. The main thread we heard from Republicans members was simple – why are you not cutting rates now like you did for Biden? The last time US macro data was this weak he slashed rates by 50bps…
Source: Bloomberg
Oh, and CPI was higher then too!
Source: Bloomberg
The answer is perplexingly simple… because every elitist economist has told him that tariffs are inflationary death bombs (ok we stretched the truth a smidge) but you get the point. Odd that he never had an opinion on any of Biden’s hyper-inflationary policies (in fact he refused to hike amid what the same PhD economists said was ‘transitory’ inflation).
Independent, indeed!
Data-Dependent, indeed!
Awkward!
BIG NEWS OF THE DAY/CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS BUT IT WILL HOLD
TRUMP VS ISRAEL VS IRAN
‘He Knew We’d Attack’ – Israel Complains At Trump’s Comments After Iran Ceasefire Falters
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 08:50 AM
Despite last night’s big news of a Trump-declared ceasefire, the reality is it was little more than an effort at a pause, and it’s increasingly looking like neither side actually signed onto. Or at least each side issued ‘confirmation’ with a lot of conditions, and there wasn’t even firm agreement on the start time.
As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran kept exchanging lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least four Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance.
But as of Tuesday morning, Trump’s message is one of extreme frustration. Hisfiery statement to the press just moments before boarding Marine One included the declaration, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*ck they’re doing. You understand that.” Watch the comments below:
The warring sides have not heeded Trump’s call to immediately halt, and at the very moment the US president has been issuing desperate messages and warnings, explosions are still being observed in Israel and Iran.
Just after the president addressed the press, Israel’s Channel 12 said IDF warplanes have launched another round of strikes against Tehran. This also just as Trump issued a new Truth Social post demanding that Israel not attack Iran. “All planes will turn around and head home,” he wrote, almost as a directive, so that “Nobody will be hurt” as “the Ceasefire is in effect!”
A big question remains whether he’s bringing real leverage to bear against Israel, or if the latest ‘objections’ are more just show to provide political cover for himself for the negative fallout as war persists. But his current deeply frustrated tone is a reminder of the failures to achieve peace in Ukraine, and the past Ukraine-Russia related statements to just ‘let them fight it out’ of the last months.
Axios’ Barak Ravid offers up an explanation (per machine translation):
Israeli official: Trump called Netanyahu and asked him not to attack Iran at all. Netanyahu told Trump that he could not cancel the attack and that some kind of response was needed to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Ultimately, it was decided to significantly scale down the attack and cancel the attack on a large number of targets
Times of Israel has also freshly commented on the obvious miscommunication and apparent growing rift among allies concerning plans for the Iran conflict, and whether to halt the fighting of keep up the attacks:
Trump was sending out posts on his Truth Social platform promising that Israel will not strike Iran “after he knew we would attack,” an Israeli official tells the Kan public broadcast.
Israeli officials confirmed that the IAF struck an Iranian radar site north of Tehran, after Iran fired two ballistic missiles at Israel after a ceasefire had taken effect.
But it’s still possible, amid the finger-pointing, that ceasefire could take effect Tuesday, though it’s anyone’s guess precisely when.
In the overnight hours there was this large Israeli attack on Tehran even after ceasefire was announced to the world:
Tehran. After 3am. Israel is bombing all over district 6 & 7 of Tehran. Home to 600,000, the area houses the Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art, which has the largest collection of Francis Bacon paintings in the world. The area is also home to many governmental buildings. pic.twitter.com/TvT76HoPd7
— Samira Mohyeddin سمیرا (@SMohyeddin) June 24, 2025
It may in the end have little substantive to make it stick, and might prove merely a pause or temporary respite for both sides to assess damage and regroup. Here’s how we got here, via Newsquawk:
US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the “ceasefire is now in effect”.
At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.
Iran’s overnight missile strike on a residential home in Be’er Sheba resulted in some shocking scenes of people seeking to get out and survive the nightmarish ordeal:
DEVASTATION in Beersheba following MISSILE attacks from Iran
Aftermath and rescue efforts of the hit on the Beersheba residential building:
TRAGEDY IN BEERSHEVA: Three of the victims were members of the same family. The fourth person killed was in a nearby apartment.
According to the Home Front Command’s investigation, the missile struck the sixth floor, hit two apartments, and exploded directly inside the shelter.” pic.twitter.com/GoKLvz1lZq
Israel is now feeling the drive for vengeance for this and other devastating blows from the Islamic Republic, despite Trump in this rare moment expressing that he’s “really unhappy” with Israel. “Bring your pilots home, now!” – is the message not being heeded.
USA DATA RELEASES
US Home Prices Plunged In April – Biggest Drop Since Dec 2022
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 09:05 AM
After US home pries declined in March (the latest data) for the first time in over two years, this morning’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index data was expected to show another drop in the cost of buying a home.
And the consensus was right but way off in magnitude as prices in April tumbled 0.31% MoM (-0.02% exp) – the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Prices are still up 3.4% YoY, but that is the slowest acceleration since Aug 2023.
Tampa prices continue to lead the plunge…
Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, the next couple of months do not bode well…
Source: Bloomberg
However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going continue to lag for the next couple of months before re-accelerating once again…
Source: Bloomberg
So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices… and now prices are tumbling again as you pause… Well played Fed!!
END
June Gloom Hits Consumer Confidence After Gay May; Inflation Expectations Plunge
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 10:13 AM
After surging by the most in 14 years in May, analysts expected this morning’s June data for The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to continue to rebound in June.
However, it did not. The headline Confidence print disappointed, dropping from an upwardly revised 98.4 to 93.0 with future expectations dropping, but Present Situation tumbling to its weakest since Sept 2024…
“The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.
Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.
Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market.
The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened.
Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”
The Conference Board’s Inflation Expectation index tumbled, leaving UMich alone in its partisan pathology…
Source: Bloomberg
Guichard added that:
“Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices.”
“Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month.”
Of course, the partisanship never ends – we note that Democratic states are seeing confidence collapse while Trump states are seeing confidence rise…
Source: Bloomberg
Let’s wait and see if UMich can ‘fix’ its bias or just keep pushing inflation expectations to the moon.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Supreme Court Hands Trump Huge Win On Deporting ‘Worst Of The Worst’ Illegals
Monday, Jun 23, 2025 – 06:00 PM
The US Supreme Court just lifted a lower court’s order that required the Trump administration to give people 10 days’ notice and a chance to object before deporting them to a third country.
“The United States is facing a crisis of illegal immigration, in no small part because many aliens most deserving of removal are often the hardest to remove,” Solicitor General John Saur wrote in an emergency application to the court in May.
“When illegal aliens commit crimes in this country, they are typically ordered removed. But when those crimes are especially heinous, their countries of origin are often unwilling to take them back. As a result, criminal aliens are often allowed to stay in the United States for years on end, victimizing law-abiding Americans in the meantime.”
The brief unsigned order came in the case known as Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. with (surprise, surprise)Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Elena Kagan dissenting from the decision, who said they “cannot join so gross an abuse” of the high court’s authority.
“Apparently, the Court finds the idea that thousands will suffer violence in farflung locales more palatable than the remote possibility that a District Court exceeded its remedial powers when it ordered the Government to provide notice and process to which the plaintiffs are constitutionally and statutorily entitled,” Sotomayor wrote.
“That use of discretion is as incomprehensible as it is inexcusable.”
The government has tried to speed up the deportation process “by removing aliens to third countries that have agreed to accept them.”
“Convincing third countries to accept some of the most undesirable aliens requires sensitive diplomacy, which involves negotiation and the balancing of other foreign-policy interests,” it stated.
Now, the administration can proceed with fast-track deportations of “some of the worst of the worst illegal aliens” to countries it has made deals with, such as South Sudan.
Of course, not everyone is happy.
“The ramifications of the Supreme Court’s order will be horrifying,” said Trina Realmuto, executive director of the National Immigration Litigation Alliance.
“It strips away critical due process protections…”
We look forward to seeing President Trump’s response.
end
Trump Slams “Dumb” Fed Chair As Powell Shrugs Off Dovish Colleagues, Reiterates “No Rush” To Cut
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 08:42 AM
In his prepared remarks ahead of this morning’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his comments from last week’s FOMC that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress.
“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
His comments – with not a bit of dovishness – comes after three of his colleagues (Waller, Bowden, and Goolsbee) all hinted at rate cuts as soon as July in recent days.
Powell said the tariffs’ impact on inflation could be short-lived or possibly be more persistent.
“Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined,” Powell said in a statement that largely echoed remarks he delivered last week.
“Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”
Avoiding the latter outcome “will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,” he said.
“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate,” Trump said on social media early Tuesday.
“I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”
Economic data so far has shown limited impact from tariffs.
Does make you wonder about “Fed Independence”…
Powell: Inflation Has Eased Significantly but Remains Somewhat Elevated
is it somewhat less elevated than it was in Sept 2024 when you cut 50 bps to ram stocks higher into the election?
Chairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report.
The Federal Reserve remains squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2 percent longer-run objective. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.
Current Economic Situation and Outlook
Incoming data suggest that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5 percent last year, gross domestic product (GDP) was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual swing has complicated GDP measurement. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP)—which excludes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending—grew at a solid 2.5 percent rate. Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated, while investment in equipment and intangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter. Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a decline in sentiment over recent months and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment.
In the labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged a moderate 124,000 per month in the first five months of the year. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent in May, remains low and has stayed in a narrow range for the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures. The strong labor market conditions in recent years have helped narrow long-standing disparities in employment and earnings across demographic groups.
Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.
Monetary Policy
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. With the labor market at or near maximum employment and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent since the beginning of the year. We have also continued to reduce our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities and, beginning in April, further slowed the pace of this decline to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
Policy changes continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.
The effects on inflation could be short lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
The FOMC’s obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum-employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.
For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.
To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
end
this is a huge problem for Trump
(zerohedge)
3 US States Register High Share Of ‘Seriously Underwater’ Mortgages: Report
Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi topped the list of states with the highest share of “seriously underwater” mortgages—properties with loan balances exceeding their market value by at least 25 percent—real estate analytics company ATTOM said in a June 20 statement.
In Q1 2025, 2.8 percent of mortgages nationwide were classified as being seriously underwater, up from 2.5 percent in Q4 2024.
“Louisiana remains the state with the highest percentage of seriously underwater mortgages, though the percentage improved from 11.3 percent to 10.5 percent from Q1 2024 and Q1 2025,” said the statement.
“In Louisiana, one in every 10 mortgages are seriously underwater,” ATTOM added. “The counties with the highest percent of mortgages seriously underwater are Vernon, Saint Martin, Iberville, and Webster.”
The rate of such mortgages in Kentucky and Mississippi was 7.3 percent and 6.6 percent respectively.
As with Louisiana, the rate dipped in both these states on an annual basis.
Virginia had the lowest level, where only one in 51 mortgages are considered underwater. This was followed by Alaska and Vermont.
Underwater mortgages pose various challenges to homeowners, like difficulty in selling, said an April 25 report from Rocket Mortgage.
People typically use sale proceeds from their current property to pay the down payment on their next house. But in the case of underwater homes, there isn’t enough money to pay off the existing mortgage. The owner has to cough up additional funds for the balance amount.
This impacts their ability to make the down payment on their next home. Moreover, refinancing an underwater mortgage can be quite difficult, said the report.
While the rate of “seriously underwater” mortgages rose in Q1, the share of residential properties considered “equity-rich” dropped quarter-wise, ATTOM said in a May 8 statement.
Equity-rich homes have loan amounts that make up only up to half of the estimated market value of the properties.
In Q1, 46.2 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered to be equity-rich, down from 47.7 percent in Q4, 2024.
Despite the drop, ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said the dip in the proportion of equity-rich homes “shouldn’t cause too much concern.”
“Home equity rates are near their highest points in recent years,” he said. “In each of the two previous years, the first quarter marked the lowest point of the year before the proportion of equity-rich homes shot back up in the second quarter.”
Dealing With Underwater Mortgages
According to a June 2024 post by financial services company Lending Tree, people with underwater mortgages have a few options to handle the situation.
First, they can check whether any lenders offer debt restructuring that would modify the loan terms or temporarily allow deferring monthly payments. This could make the mortgage more manageable.
Another option is to file for bankruptcy to liquidate any assets that could resolve the debt. The downside of this option is that bankruptcies negatively affect credit scores.
Homes that are underwater are also at a greater risk of foreclosure. When homeowners stop making payments for a certain period of time, lenders repossess the property and sell it off to recoup the loan amount.
Foreclosure filings had risen by 11 percent in Q1 compared to the previous quarter, according to an April 11 statement from ATTOM.
The rise in underwater mortgages and foreclosures is happening amid expectations that home values would decline this year.
In a June 12 statement, real estate marketplace Zillow predicted home values to dip by 1.4 percent, attributing the fall largely to an increase in housing inventory.
“Elevated mortgage rates and concerns about a weakening labor market are expected to continue holding some buyers back. Despite sellers returning to the housing market this year, sales are expected to lag, putting downward pressure on prices,” Zillow said.
end
Senate GOP’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ On The Brink As Tax Clashes, Medicaid Cuts And Parliamentarian Delays Derail Timeline
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 12:20 PM
Senate Republicans are in panic mode this week, frantically rewriting their so-called “big, beautiful bill” before a planned ThursdayFriday vote, but the trillion-dollar package is sagging under the weight of internal brawls, Medicaid landmines, and the looming judgment of the Senate parliamentarian, Politico reports.
GOP leaders insist they’re on track to start voting Thursday, but senators emerging from a tense closed-door briefing Monday night admitted that major parts of the megabill, including key tax language and Medicaid provisions, remain in flux, and the final text still hasn’t been released.
“I think we’ll eventually pass something, I just can’t tell you when,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) said bluntly. “We’ve got a lot of stuff to work out, and the bill will be changed on the floor.”
The holdup centers on the so-called “Byrd bath,” the parliamentarian’s behind-closed-doors review of which pieces of the legislation qualify under budget reconciliation; the GOP’s only way to pass the bill without Democratic support. Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough’s rulings could land as late as Wednesday night, just hours before the Senate’s first expected vote.
As we noted on Monday, MacDonough (D) has booted several major provisions from the Republican megabill to enact President Trump’s agenda – including language which would authorize states to conduct border security and immigration enforcement(more below).
“Part of it right now is the Byrd bath, and it’s taking a little bit longer,” admitted Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who’s hoping for a Thursday kickoff with final passage over the weekend.
But it’s not just Senate procedure clogging the drain — it’s the substance, too.
SALT Showdown
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has been trying to broker a deal on the controversial state-and-local-tax deduction cap, or SALT. He pitched keeping the $40,000 cap that the House passed while tweaking the income threshold at which it phases out – a move aimed at soothing House SALT rebels.
Problem is, those same House Republicans already rejected that combo days ago. And after Monday night’s briefing, even GOP senators weren’t sure if Mullin had actually sealed any agreement or just tossed out “options.”
Medicaid Minefield
Then there’s Medicaid…
GOP leaders are floating a special fund for rural hospitals to ease concerns over deep Medicaid cuts in the Senate version of the bill, specifically, a plan to slash the provider taxes that many states rely on to trigger larger federal payments.
“I am absolutely happy with a rural fund; I think that would be great,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) said. “Will that solve the issue? I don’t know.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) even handed out a printed breakdown showing how much Medicaid money states like his and Hawley’s would lose under the current proposal. Hawley also said Thune reassured senators the bill wouldn’t alter federal cost-sharing for states that expanded Medicaid under Obamacare, a key worry among more moderate Republicans.
But none of that is calming nerves in the House, where GOP leaders are warning that the Senate’s version could be a poison pill.
Speaker Mike Johnson has urged senators to make minimal tweaks to the House-passed bill. House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD) put it more bluntly: “If it should pass the Senate in its current rumored form, it probably would have trouble in the House.”
Parliamentarian Potholes
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are reeling from MacDonough’s early rulings that tossed out several major cost-saving provisions.
A proposal to penalize states for food-aid payment errors, designed to shift costs and save billions, was deemed noncompliant with reconciliation rules. Senate Agriculture Republicans are now scrambling to salvage the plan with a rewrite.
Also in the trash heap: Sen. Mike Lee’s plan to overhaul federal rulemaking and sell off millions of acres of public lands. Lee is now offering a narrower version excluding Forest Service lands and may revive the proposal as a floor amendment.
And the tax section, the heart of the GOP bill, is still under review. Finance Committee staff met with MacDonough Monday and are expected to return Tuesday to go over the language line by line. Final rulings aren’t expected until Wednesday at the earliest.
Trump Steps In
President Donald Trump is now working the phones and the White House to get fiscal conservatives on board.
On Monday, Trump met with Sens. Lee, Rick Scott (R-FL), and Ron Johnson (R-WI) and urged them to support full repeal of Biden’s clean energy tax credits and to focus on slashing Medicaid waste, fraud and abuse. The trio delivered Trump’s message to House Freedom Caucus members in a private meeting Monday night.
But even with Trump leaning in, time is short and the to-do list is long.
Republicans had originally hoped to release the final version of the bill Monday. Now, insiders say it won’t drop until after MacDonough’s rulings land, leaving very little time for senators to read, debate, or amend the text before a floor vote.
Despite it all, Thune remains hopeful. “We’re pushing hard to get this done by Thursday,” he said.
Others aren’t so sure.
END
this is very problematic for Trump
Senate Parliamentarian Rejects ‘Drill Baby Drill’ Provisions In GOP Megabil
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 12:20 PM
Update (1412ET): First it was the judges. Now Democrat Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough is shredding a ton of provisions in the Big Beautiful Bill – most recently a provision that automatically certifies offshore oil and gas projects as being compliant with the National Environmental Policy Act – skipping the environmental review process that was deemed not germane to the so-called ‘Byrd Rule.’
The rule allows bills to pass via ‘reconciliation,’ or a simple majority in the Senate – otherwise they require 60 votes to advance. The Byrd Rule requires that reconciliation bills be related to the federal budget, revenue, and the national debt – and MacDonough has been having her way with it.
Other measures she tossed include a portion that would have required the interior secretary to allow the construction of a controversial mining thorough fare – Ambler Road – in Alaska, as well as another provision that would have removed the interior secretary’s discretion to lower fees for solar and wind projects on federal land.
A section related to natural gas and import fees was also tossed.
“Democrats continue to show up and fight every provision of this Big, Beautiful Betrayal of a bill, because this bill is an attack on workers and families everywhere,” said Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley (D-OR). “Democrats will not stand idly by while Republicans attempt to circumvent the rules of reconciliation in order to sell off public lands to fund tax breaks for billionaires. We will make sure the Byrd Rule is followed and review any changes Republicans attempt to make to the bill.”
ManDonough previously rejected provisions including allowing states to conduct immigration enforcement, reducing the pay of federal civil service employees if they don’t agree to “at-will” status, cutting the pay of Federal Reserve staff, effective defunding the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and requiring Congress to approve regulations that cost over $100 million.
END
Church Massacre Cancelled: Shooter Run Over By Deacon’s Truck, Then Fatally Shot By Staff
Monday, Jun 23, 2025 – 07:40 PM
What promised to be a ghastly church massacre in Michigan on Sunday was prevented by the speedy reactions of a church deacon and two staff members — with the deacon unleashing the first blow with his truck before a security guard and another staff member polished off the assailant with gunfire. The drama played out at CrossPointe Community Church in Wayne, Michigan, a western Detroit suburb. Police identified the dead shooter as Brian Anthony Browning, a 31-year-old white male with no known connection to the church.
Browning arrived at the church in Nissan truck shortly after 11 a.m., as a special vacation bible school service was underway, teeming with children and 150 congregants in all. Police say he was wearing a tactical vest and carrying both a handgun and a “long gun” (a pointlessly-vague police term that could describe either a rifle or shotgun). After gaining the attention of staff members by driving recklessly outside the building, Browning exited his vehicle and opened fire on the church.
That’s when he was met with a swift and decisive one-two punch. When a deacon saw the shooter moving toward the church, he immediately turned his Ford F-150 pickup truck into a two-ton weapon, hitting the gas and running Browning over as the fiend fired multiple rounds at him. [“The Ford works in mysterious ways,” observes ZeroHedge reader Rattus in an instant-classic comment below.] That bought time for staff members to engage him with gunfire.“At least two staff members shot the gunman, causing fatal wounds,”said Wayne Police Chief Ryan Strong. One staffer suffered a gunshot wound to the leg, but is expected to fully recover after undergoing surgery. Though Browning was stopped “quite close” to the church, several of the rounds he fired entered it.
Live-streamed video of the service captured the congregation’s multistage reaction to the attack, which proceeded from distraction to confusion and then fearful retreat, with one of the leaders of the service beckoning everyone to move to the back of the building:
BREAKING – Live footage from Crosspoint Community Church in Wayne, Michigan shows people fleeing the second shooting becomes apparent, before the threat was ultimately neutralized by security.
— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) June 22, 2025
Churchgoer Doug Blair told Fox 2 Detroit that he first mistook the sound of gunfire for construction noises. After hearing someone announce an “active shooter,” he ran to a door, propped it open and carefully took a look outside:
“There was the shooter … on the ground. His weapon, I think he was still firing away, it was on the ground… right before I got to the door, you could hear it was going BAM, BAM, BAM. That’s all you heard. When I opened the door, one of our security people was in front of him and one was on the other side of him. They were just both emptying their clips.”
Chief Strong praised the swift and effective response. “We are grateful for the quick actions of the church’s staff members, who undoubtedly saved many lives and prevented a large-scale mass shooting,” he said. “I would add that the church parishioners and staff members were trained in responding to emergency situations, which also saved lives.”
The pastor and police say Browning didnot appear to have ever been a member of the church, which is located about five miles away from his home in Romulus, Michigan. There’s no word yet about a motive.“It appears he was suffering from a mental health crisis,” Strong told reporters, an assertion based on interviews already conducted. Police say he had no criminal record, and little biographical information has surfaced thus far, with no reports about his work history. Photos are circulating on social media that purport to show Browning, but there are disputes about their authenticity.
Chalk up another win for good guys with guns — and a Ford F-150.
Members of Connecticut’s congressional delegation are probably right that President Trump should have sought the approval of Congress before launching last weekend’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear bomb-making infrastructure. That is the clear implication of the Constitution’s placing with Congress the power to declare war, and it is the command of the federal War Powers Act.
But then most of Connecticut’s members of Congress, all Democrats, were in office and offered little objection when Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, both Democrats, went around the world bombing stuff. Without formal congressional approval, Clinton ordered attacks on Kosovo, Sudan, and Afghanistan, and Obama ordered attacks on Libya and Syria.
But Trump is a Republican.
Of course in principle democracy requires the public’s ratification of decisions to go to war, and the United States now is openly at war with Iran. Vice President J.D. Vance’s contention that the United States is not at war with Iran but with its nuclear bomb-making program is a distinction without a difference, just an articulation of war aims. More to the point, as a practical matter Iran has been at war with the United States for many years, insofar as Iran, as Trump noted last weekend, is the world’s main sponsor of terrorism and this terrorism has killed many U.S. citizens.
Also as a practical matter, Congress retains control over the war with its power of the purse. It can pass legislation forbidding spending for war against Iran.
But the legal questions are separate from the question of what the U.S. position toward Iran should be. So far the Connecticut delegation has failed on that question.
U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy says Iran poses no immediate threat to the United States. That is contradicted by the many years of Iran’s sponsoring terrorism against Americans and others. Additionally, if the United States has an interest in a stable and peaceful Middle East, where so much of the world’s oil is produced and where the United States has formal or informal allies, Iran’s long campaign of subversion there is very much a threat to this country.
Criticizing Trump’s attack on Iran, U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney quotes Gen. David Petraeus’ query about the second war with Iran’s neighbor, Iraq: “Tell me how this ends.”
This is not really profound. For the second war with Iraq was an invasion, a land war of conquest with thousands of soldiers pursuing imagined “weapons of mass destruction” as well as “regime change.” No one, at least not yet, is advocating the conquest of Iran, whose regime is built on oil installations that can be easily destroyed from a distance with bombs and missiles without conquest.
Yes, there’s no telling how far Iran will go with retaliation. But there long has been good reason to fear that the end sought by an unmolested Iran would be mass murder, especially in Israel, whose destruction the ayatollahs long have pledged and have been very tempted by, Israel being so small geographically, a “one-bomb country.”
Trump says the war with Iran ends with Iran’s capacity to make nuclear weapons, but that is wishful thinking. Even without nuclear weapons Iran’s theocratic fascist regime may remain in power, continuing its terrorism and subversion, chanting “Death to America” along with “Death to Israel,” and pursuing an objective that is broader still — the forced religious conversion of the entire world. If the ayatollahs stay in power, they are sure to continue their war even without nuclear weapons.
The United States is a continental country, not a one-bomb country. But even one nuclear bomb — detonated in Washington or New York or another city — could inflict catastrophic damage that might last a century. Democratic leaders, most still supporting open borders, through which such a bomb might pass, should reflect on this danger, as the Israelis long have been reflecting on it while being attacked by Iran’s proxies.
At last the Israelis have drawn the proper conclusion. But the only conclusion Connecticut’s Democrats seem able to draw is that if Trump did it, it must be wrong.
Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics for many years. (CPowell@cox.net)
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
The King Report June 24, 2025 Issue 7519
Independent View of the News
@realDonaldTrump 18:02 ET: … It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their… final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
Trump at 16:52 ET: Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected… There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction… NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same…. I’d like to thank the Highly Respected Emir of Qatar for all he has done in seeking Peace for the Region…
@globaltimesnews: When asked about Iran’s parliament reportedly endorsing closing the Strait of Hormuz and about China’s comments and whether China has held talks with Iran regarding the issue, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Monday that the Persian Gulf and its surrounding waters are vital channels for international goods and energy trade. Safeguarding security and stability in the region serves the common interests of the international community…
Iran’s ‘proportionate response’ to US strike will be set by military, envoy tells UN “The Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly warned the warmongering U.S. regime to refrain from stumbling into this quagmire, even though Iran reserves its full and legitimate right under international law to defend itself against this blatant U.S. aggression and its Israeli proxy,” he said at the United Nations. “The timing, nature and the scale of Iran’s proportionate response will be decided by its armed forces.”… Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the UN… https://thehill.com/policy/international/5363359-iran-us-israel-trump-bombing/
@emilykschrader: Ebrahim Jabbari, advisor to the IRGC chief, on regime TV: “We must cut off Trump’s hand, slit Netanyahu’s throat, and wipe Israel off the map.” Maybe DON’T make a deal with here genocidal freaks?! https://t.co/NnW5Cls6fW
Senior Iranian official to CNN: “The war could last two years, and we are prepared for that.”
@NiohBerg: Reports of 500-1000 IRGC casualties today in Iran. Israel deliberately bombed their most important buildings, without warning, at the same time, while everyone was inside of them.
@manniefabian: IDF Persian-language X account: “Dear citizens of Tehran, in the coming days, the Israeli army will continue its attacks against military targets in the Tehran area. For your personal safety, we ask that you stay away from weapons production centers, military headquarters, and security institutions affiliated with the regime.”
Tesla soared as much as 10.92% on the successful launch of its robotaxi service on Sunday.
WSJ Fed Whisper @NickTimiraos: Jay Powell testifies in Congress this week facing (Tues & Wed) • Unprecedented public criticism from the president who wants big cuts to help finance the public debt • An unusual divide… inside the FOMC… the two people pushing cuts are the two Trump appointees • A murky economic outlook with risks on both sides • An upcoming succession drama over who will take his job next year
FHFA Director @pulte: With momentum building for Powell’s immediate resignation and with Federal Reserve Governors Waller and Bowman’s data-driven statements supporting Rate Cuts, it is clear that Powell’s political bias against our great President needs to be looked at.
@libsoftiktok: Former Obama official who led Counter Terrorism Communications says on MSNBC that Iran chanting “death to America” doesn’t really mean they don’t like America. You can’t make this uphttps://t.co/GPLHaF5KmN
June S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 52 (and prior), 51 expected; Services 53.1, 53 expected, 53.7 prior; Composite PMI 52.8, 52.2 expected, 53 prior – BUT Prices Paid for materials jumped 5.4 to 70. The data was collected between June 12 and 20.
May US Existing Home Sales 4.02m, 3.95m consensus, 4.0m prior
With reports that China instructed Iran to NOT mess with the global oil supply, ESUs, stocks, and USUs rallied sharply from their Sunday lows. Oil declined sharply from its Sunday night high. Gold yoyoed but turned solidly positive in early US trading.
ESUs rallied from 5959.00 at the Sunday night opening to 6007.75 at 18:38 ET. After a retreat to 5890.00 at 20:27 ET, ESUs plodded higher until the rally accelerated at the 3 ET European opening. ESUs hit 6039.00 at 4:09 ET. ESUs then sank to 6002.50 at 7:42 ET.
Buying for the NYSE opening pushed ESUs to a daily high of 6058.25 at 10:20 ET. ESUs then headed south on multiple reports that Iran’s retaliatory strike against US assets was imminent.
This appeared near 12:30 ET: President Trump to meet his National Security Team in 40 minutes
Israeli official tells me Iran launched 6 missiles towards U.S. bases in Qatar: Axios 12:37 ET
@EzraACohen: Iran attacking U.S. base in Qatar (why do we still have a base there?) because they know it won’t draw Qatar into the conflict. If they attacked U.S. forces in KSA or UAE chance that these countries would get involved is much higher. No doubt Iran coordinated this retaliatory strike with Qatar.
ESUs sank to 5993.25 at 12:37 ET. They quickly jumped to 6025.00 at 12:43 ET because the Iran response was feeble. However, reports then said ‘at least 10 missiles’ were shot at the US’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and one missile at a US base in Iraq. Reports then had US jets scrambling in Saudi Arabia. Qatar claimed all Iranian missiles were intercepted. There was NO missile launched at Iraq.
ESUs retreated to 6006.50 at 13:00 ET. ESUs then jumped to 6040.75 at 13:19 ET while oil sank on the innocuous Iran response. Iran did NOT disrupt oil flows.
Iran Coordinated the Attacks on The American Air Base in Qatar with Qatari Officials and Gave Advanced Notice That Attacks Were Coming to Minimize Casualties – NYT
Iran informed U.S. via two diplomatic channels hours ahead of attacks on Qatar – Reuters
@charliekirk11: US officials are now saying that President Trump has no intention to strike back against Iran after Iran’s failed retaliatory strikes, which they describe as largely theatrical.
Chicago Fed President supercharged ESUs near 13:24 ET when he stated, “Thus far impact of tariffs not as bad as feared… if the tariff dirt in the air clears the Fed should proceed with a rate cut.” A Fed leftist breaking with Powell! ESUs zoomed to 6069.75 (new high) at 13:39 ET.
Earlier in the session, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, a possible replacement for Powell, advocated for a July rate cut if inflation data remains tame.
Goolsbee Says So Far Immigration Enforcement Hasn’t Had Major Jobe Markt Impact 13:47 ET
@realDonaldTrump: The sites that we hit in Iran were totally destroyed, and everyone knows it. Only the Fake News would say anything different in order to try and demean, as much as possible — And even they say they were “pretty well destroyed!” Working especially hard on this falsehood is Allison Cooper of Fake News CNN, Dumb Brian L. Roberts, Chairman of “Con”cast, Jonny Karl of ABC Fake News, and always, the Losers of, again, Concast’s NBC Fake News. It never ends with the sleazebags in the Media, and that’s why their Ratings are at an ALL TIME LOW — ZERO CREDIBILITY! 14:10 ET
@ariel_oseran: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: “Our forces destroyed the U.S. air base in Al-Udeid, Qatar, in response to America’s attack against our nuclear facilities… This action does not pose any threat to our friendly and brotherly country, Qatar.”
Iranian official to Reuters: “We are rational enough to start a diplomatic process after punishing the aggressor.”
@Aviation_Intel: Patriot batted 1000 today. A lot of software improvements for Patriot have come out of the war in Ukraine. Saudi’s defense against the Houthis as well, but I have been told Ukraine was a huge leap. Mounds of constant data from real engagements used to tweak the system.
ESU’s slowly rolled over after the 13:39 ET peak and fell to 6055.75 at 14:53 ET. ESUs jumped to 6070.50 at 15:01 ET and went inert until they jumped to 6081.50 at 15:58 ET.
FT: Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US Germany and Italy hold the world’s second- and third-largest national gold reserves after the US, with reserves of 3,352 tonnes and 2,452 tonnes, respectively, according to World Gold Council data… https://www.ft.com/content/e39390cc-ea02-4197-843a-1e4c242422cc
The DJT-hating, globalist FT in the above article claims the gold repatriation is due to uncertainty about Trump’s action, including Fed independence. However, Germany and other countries have been repatriating, or trying to repatriate gold since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
@kashyap286: The last time Germany tried to bring gold home from the New York Fed, they faced a wait time of 2 years – their gold had been lent out to bullion banks during the last bear market (2012-15) and never repaid. Everyone pretended as if the gold was still in the vault, until the repatriation order came in. Germany actually gave up and kept the pretense going. With gold now in a raging bull market and it being obvious Trump changes his mind on a daily basis, the calls to empty out central banks’ gold holdings at the NY Fed will only intensify…
Positive aspects of previous session ESUs and stocks rallied sharply on dovish Fed officials and a flaccid Iran response. Oil was- 8.9% at 16:15 ET and gasoline was -6.3% on DJT’s graciousness & peace overture to Iran. Iran was extremely careful in striking US bases in Qatar & Iraq; so DJT will not retaliate. WWIII Casandras, including the rapidly diminishing Tucker Carlson, appear to be wrong, again.
Negative aspects of previous session Fed disharmony on Powell escalated. Gold still rallied on the increasing odds of rate cuts in coming months.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5999.06 Previous sessionS&P 500 IndexHigh/Low: 6028.77; 5943.23
@LucasFoxNews: Some Air Force brass whispering, “If you think the B-2 is impressive, wait until you see the B-21.”
@realDonaldTrump: Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the “N word” (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran?… If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The “N word” should not be treated so casually. I guess that’s why Putin’s “THE BOSS.” By the way, if anyone thinks our “hardware” was great over the weekend, far and away the strongest and best equipment we have, 20 years advanced over the pack, is our Nuclear Submarines. They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built… So, in addition to our Great Fighter Pilots, thank you to the Captain and Crew!
After DJT challenged Medvedev, the ex-Russia President retreated: “Russia has no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Iran… But other counties might and that’s what was said…” Putin probably nuked Medvedev with ‘don’t open the door for Ukraine to get nukes!’https://x.com/breeadail/status/1937215540432634347/photo/2
@DrEliDavid: Clinton was given the option to destroy North Korea’s nuclear program with a pre-emptive strike, but he refused. Thankfully, Trump is not Clinton.
@ByronYork: Am having trouble understanding the what-happened-to-Iran’s-enriched-uranium stories. The idea is that, because of Donald Trump’s big talk, Iran had time to pull trucks up to Fordo and load up its enriched uranium to hide it somewhere before U.S. planes attacked. The problem is Israel. It has incredibly good intelligence and seems to have penetrated all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. It did not bomb Fordo itself because it did not have the bunker-busting capability. But when Iran removes the uranium from Fordo, above ground, using trucks in plain sight, the Israelis either don’t know about it or do know about it but watch from the sidelines saying, gosh, it’s too bad nobody can stop this? Something is missing here. (PS – Medvedev admitted that Iran was trying to produce nukes!)
NATO agrees to increase defense spending to 5% after Trump’s demands, Spain says it’s opting outhttps://t.co/Q7P2ikXseh
Computer Engineering Grads Face Double the Unemployment Rate of Art History Majors The most recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York… show art history majors have a 3 percent unemployment rate while computer engineering grads have a 7.5 percent unemployment rate. Computer science grads are in a similar boat, with a 6.1 percent rate… https://t.co/9ZF8WlHedI
There are reports of assassination attempts of Senior Iran officials in Tehran.
@GOPIsrael: There is some reporting that the IRGC head has been assassinated. Unverified. Also, some Iranians are saying that if Israel continues to attack after 03:30 Iran time, Iran will reject the ceasefire. There are reports that Israel is attacking an area where Khameini may be hiding. A lot of confusion. Reports that IDF attacks against the IRGC HQ in Kharaj are unprecedented. There are also UNCONFIRMED reports that Khameini is no more.
Today – Powell will deliver his semiannual Fed Policy Testimony at the House Financial Services Com. GOP Reps are likely to ask Jerome some tough questions and make rude comments about him.
US equity bears, particularly notorious big hedge fund types, must be extremely nervous. Fear of a US-Iran War have collapsed; Trump Tariffs angst is circling the drain; the Fed is turning dovish; and DJT-hating Powell is on the ropes. Outside of a US recession, which isn’t in sight, there is nothing negative on the horizon. Q2 ends in one week – and numerous big entities missed the equity surge. Plus, the 4th of the July Rally and Q2 earnings season are nigh!
While stocks are overbought and need a rest, there is a big risk of significant short covering, especially if Powell turns dovish in his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 ET.
ESUs are +27.50; NQUS are +150.25; USUs are -11/32; WTI Oil is +2.44; and AU is -25.00 at 19:15 ET.
Expected Economic Data: Q1 Current Account -$445.5B; April FHFA House Price Index 0.0% m/m; April S&P CoreLogic 20-City House Price Index 0.0% m/m & +3.94% y/y; June Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -10; June Conference Board Consumer Confidence 99.8
Fed Speakers: Cleveland Pres Hammack 9:15 ET, Powell 10:00 ET, NY Pres Williams 12:30 ET, Minn Pres Kashkari 13:45 ET, Boston Pres Collins 14:00 ET, Gov Barr 16:00 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5748; 100-day MA: 5769; 150-day MA: 5841; 200-day MA: 5817 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,499; 100-day MA: 42,123; 150-day MA: 42,627; 200-day MA: 42,530 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6025.19 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5807.26 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5340.64 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD isnegative– a close below 5922.48 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5955.65 triggers a sell signal
Beaucoup pundits, experts, academics, and pols made horribly wrong predictions about the Middle East.
@JonathanTurley: Rep. Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and others are calling for the impeachment of Trump for striking Iran. He is certainly no Obama. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Obama dropped over 26,000 bombs on Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, and Pakistan in 2016 alone.
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: The official, verified LA County Sheriff’s Dept posted, then edited, then deleted this eyebrow raising post appearing to express condolences for the “tragic” US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. Have to imagine someone went rogue here w/ an unapproved post. What a PR disaster.https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1936948518633021866
LA Sherriff post: “Our hearts go out to the victims and families impacted by the recent bombings in Iran. While this tragic event occurred overseas…”
@washingtonpost: The Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to deport citizens of other countries to a third nation, temporarily blocking a decision by a lower court judge. (6-3 vote, the 3 lib women, of course, voted against)
Shooter Opens Fire During Church Service, Gets Shot Dead by a Good Guy with a Gun https://t.co/qjLTzE9c70
Poll: Immigrant socialist candidate leading NYC mayoral race 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a Ugandan immigrant and self-described Democrat socialist, is now leading Cuomo in polling released Monday when factoring in the city’s “ranked choice system.”… Zohran is running on the promise to “freeze the rent” for over two million New Yorkers who live in rent stabilized apartments… Mamdani is backed by Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), while Cuomo is endorsed by the likes of Bill Clinton, former NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg, and Democrat Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.)… https://www.oann.com/newsroom/poll-immigrant-socialist-candidate-leading-nyc-mayoral-race/
@EYakoby:Zohran Mamdani thinks the NYPD should be removed specifically from high-crime areas. He says that’s as mayor, he’d replace cops with social workers—and turn the subway into a network of homeless shelters. (Buh-by NYC!) https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1937174484848431341
We’ve said it before, but it needs repeating. History shows that when the aristocracy appeases radicals, eventually the radicals take power and target the aristocracy directly and indirectly.
For decades, leftists have conditioned a sizable chunk of Americans to believe the USA is evil and it should be disparaged and hated. Leftist USA: ‘The home of the disgruntled, envious, and hateful.’
Do you notice how fast the media has spiked the story about Vance Boelter sayingTim Walz asked him to 86 Dem Sen. Amy Klobucher?
@CollinRugg: Amazon worker asks how she is supposed to do her job after the United States bombed Iran. “I just want to know how I’m supposed to do my job when we bombed Iran, and we’re just supposed to, like, go around about.” “We’re just supposed to get these boxes out without being worried. I just need somebody to explain to me how I’m supposed to not crash out.” https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1937267719382139208
Decades of pandering and appeasement have softened too many Americans. Can you imagine how our ancestors would respond to this crap after laboring to survive The Great Depression and WWII, including the Holocaust and other horrible events?
harveyorganblog.com 
