JULY 1/FIRST DAY FOR BASEL III RULES: GOLD CLOSED UP $43.85 TO $3339.05 WHILE SILVER ROSE BY $0.21 TO $36.16//PLATINUM ROSE BY $6.75 TO $1346.85 WITH PALLADIUM SHOWING NO GAIN REMAINING AT $1099.60//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM MATHEW PIEPENBERG//IRAN NEWS UPDATES/ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES/WEST BANK UPDATES/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//USA NEWS: A MASSIVE 30 BILLION DOLLAR HEALTH CARE FRAUD EXPOSED//COVID INJURY UPDATES/NEWS ADDICTS//USA MANUFACTURING SURVEYS SOAR//LABOUR ADVANCES AS JOB OPENINGS IN USA SOAR//USA SENATE PASSES THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL AND NOW THIS GOES ONTO THE HOUSE//
323 C HSBC 54 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 372 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 421 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 16 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1058 124 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 7 8 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 3 709 C BARCLAYS 91 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 18 8 905 C ADM 9
TOTAL: 1,095 1,095 MONTH TO DATE: 5,307
JPMORGAN STOPPED 124/1095
JULY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 1095 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 109,500 OZ or 3.405 TONNES
total notices so far: 5307 contracts for 530,700 OR 16.506 tonnes)
FOR JULY
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SILVER NOTICES: 275 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.375 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5414 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 27.070 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $43.85 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.21 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 476.686 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 4126 CONTRACTS TO 162,359 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS OF $0.20 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY HAVE THE PIERCING OF $34.40 TO 34.50 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3626 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG 500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS AND MONTH END SPREADERS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $35.95 . WE HAVE A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE AT 995 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT STILL SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 995 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TODAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 3626 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.20. WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO OUR TWO SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A MEGA HUGE 995 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.20) BUT WERE A LITTLE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 3594 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH MOST OF THE LOSS DUE TO OUR 2 SPREADERS.
WE HAD A 500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 34.730 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 250,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 34.985 MILLION OZ
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY: 34.985 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A 500 SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (/ VI) A MEGA HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 995 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A TINY 32 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAY(S), total 500 contracts: OR 2.5 MILLION OZ (500 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 2.5 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 2.50 MILLION OZ
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RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4126 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.20 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG 500 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 500 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 4 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 34.985 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (995 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE TUESDAY’S TRADING AND BEYOND!
WE HAD 275 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.375 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1308 OI CONTRACTS TO 434,714 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 395 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1308 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $20.00 IN PRICE// MONDAY///.
LAST THREE MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 1.965 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 19.888 TONNES STANDING
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 240 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 434,714 /NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 162,359 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1068 CONTRACTS WITH 1308 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 240 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1068 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1459 CONTRACTS
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(240) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1308 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1068 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JULY AT 17.947 TONNES COUPLED WITH TODAY’S 1.965 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.888 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JULY CONTRACT AT 19.888 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS DESPITE HAVING 1)A $20.00 COMEX PRICE GAIN. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 1308 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES COUPLED WITH HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS // /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY BUT SMALLER FOR JUNE!
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (500 CONTRACTS)/// FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1459 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
JUNE INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 240 CONTRACTS OR 24,000 OZ OR 0.746 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 240 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 0.746 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS .746 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.021% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
AN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 746 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 4126 CONTRACTS OI TO 162,359 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 500 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 500 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 4126 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 500 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3636 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.20 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 18.13 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
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ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.32 PTS OR 0.39%
//Hang Seng CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 501.06 PTS OR 0.87% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1624 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1605/ Oil UP TO 65.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.20 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1624 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1605 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1308 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 434,714 OI DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $20.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST MINIMAL NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (240 ). WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ALONG AND HUGE FINALIZATION OF MONTH END CALENDAR SPREADER LIQUIDATION //MONDAY TRADING.
THE CME ANNOUNCED M0NDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES.
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 0
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1308 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON TUESSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF MAY, JUNE AND JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FAIR AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1459 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING IS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
HOWEVER JULY IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 1.965 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 19.988 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 19.988 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 32+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 225 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 240 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 2400 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2400 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//HUGE MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION AS WELL
ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED, 1459 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $20.00/ /) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION + CALENDAR SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////MONDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING TODAY. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3.321 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 63,200 OZ OR 1.965 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.888 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $20.00
WE HAD A HUGE 965 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1068 CONTRACTS OR 106,800 0Z (3.321 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5307 notices 530,700 oz 16.506TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 0 customer entry
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withdrawals:
0 ENTRIES
total withdrawal NIL oz
adjustments: 1 ( DEALER TO CUSTOMER ACCTS)
a)BRINKS //dealer to customer acct
96,453.000 oz (3000 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 2182 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 3580 CONTRACTS. ON MONDAY WE HAD 4212 NOTICES FILED SO WE GAINED A HUGE 632 CONTRACTS OR 63,200 OZ (1.965 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH MUCH JOY A HUGE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD
AUGUST GAINED 623 CONTRACTS UP TO 317,771
SEPT LOST 3 CONTRACTS TO 1097
We had 4212 contracts filed for today representing 421,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 1058 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1095 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 124 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5307 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (2182 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1095 x 100 oz per contract) equals 639,400 OZ OR 19.888 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 19.888 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (5307 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (2182 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1095 x 100 oz) which equals 639,400 OZ OR 19.888 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 19.888 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 19.888 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
i) Out of Asahi 608,147.700 oz ii) Our of HSBC 308,705/100 oz
total withdrawal 916,852.800 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.021 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 499.695 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 1858 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 5089 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 5139 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 50 CONTRACTS OR 250,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST LOST 4 CONTRACTS TO 2369
SEPTEMBER GAINED 737 CONTRACTS UP TO 130,370 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 275 or 1,375,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 47,114 small//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5414 X5,000 oz = 27.070 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1858) AND the number of notices served upon today (275 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (5414) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(1858) minus number of notices served upon today (275)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 34.985 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 34.985 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.628 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 214.820/501.210 million. 42.71%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
JUNE 2 WITH GOLD UP $80.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD UP $22.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.71 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.61 TONNES
MAY 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.46 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD UP $69.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.89TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 952.53 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $1.58/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.773 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.38/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.375 MILLION OZ
Many are wondering if it’s too late to buy gold, that gold has peaked and they have missed their opportunity.
We hope the below series of facts, figures and common-sense reality-checks will put such fears squarely to rest, as gold’s role, price direction and days are only just beginning.
A Light House in the Fog
In a world of geopolitical tensions, can-kicking monetary fantasies, falling bombs, rising debt, discredited leadership, impotent summits, weaponized trade and a comically discredited media narrative, it’s hard to find a lighthouse in such fog.
Even with the world closest to the brink of nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis, the markets, forever certain that a life-boat of mega liquidity is just one crisis away, churned Titanically forward with no ice berg fears.
VON GREYERZ advisor, Ronnie Stoeferle, sarcastically described the recent S&P, NASDAQ and NIVIDIA behavior as being almost like that of a Zen monk.
But there’s nothing “Zen” about these markets, times, currencies or financial systems. And there’s certainly nothing “Zen” about the once-sacred 10Y UST…
How do we know this? How have we always known this?
In short, what has been our lighthouse?
The answer is as simple as it timeless, indestructible, and honest: Gold.
The Quiet Accumulation Phase
Unlike politicians scrambling for power like donkeys fighting for hay (Chamfort) and squawking threats, promises and miracle solutions for one more X follower, vote or concession, sophisticated gold investors—from generational family offices, portfolio managers and sovereign wealth funds to eastern central banks and even the IMF and BIS—have been quietly accumulating gold at unprecedented levels.
For the last 3 years (since the US foolishly weaponized the world reserve currency), central banks have been annually accumulating over 1000 tons of gold.
Average central bank gold stacking has skyrocketed from 118 tons (pre-2022), to over 290 tons per/bank/year post weaponization.
In short, despite all the fog, squawking, speculating and debating, precious metal investors have been watching what gold does rather than listening to what failed policy makers and systems are saying.
The Unofficial Reserve Currency
Nassim Taleb bluntly said the quiet part out loud in a recent Bloomberg interview, namely that gold is effectively becoming the unofficial global reserve currency.
We have been saying the same for years, not because we fawn on every empty phrase of every empty politico or market pundit, but because we have been watching what gold does.
And let’s look at what gold has been quietly, calmly and historically doing—and SIGNALING—for years.
Signals Rather than Words
In 1971, when the USD lost its golden chaperone, money supply expansion, inflation and hence a gold price explosion followed, held in check only by Volcker’s aggressive, post-1980 rate hikes.
Even the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, in which gold ultimately out-hedged a perfect market storm, the only thing to “save” that not-so-Zen equity market was Bernanke’s money printing to the moon.
But as US public debt levels crawl toward $37T, we objectively know (and knew from day-one) that raising rates wouldn’t work for Powell as they did for Volcker, and hence Powell’s “higher-for-longer” policies were doomed from the onset by the hard math of fiscal dominance.
Or stated more simply, America was too far in debt to afford its own so-called “inflation killing” rate hikes.
We also know that QE to the moon is another useless option, and that Bernanke’s Nobel Prize for such a “temporary” solution has since devolved into a currency destroying nightmare.
In short, the Fed is Trapped. Cornered. Out of good options.
Period.
More Recent Signs of Golden Power
But there are far more current yet ignored signals from that modest pet rock, which has been quietly getting the last laugh on a global system that is loudly getting more desperate and hence more centralized.
From Day-One of the Putin sanctions, we said that trust in, and hence demand for, the dollar and UST would fall as gold slowly rose to replace this mistrust.
We also carefully tracked the critically important move by the BIS to rate physical gold as a Tier-One, global reserve asset.
This was another quiet, yet media-ignored BIS signal, that gold was becoming a far more trusted and objectively superior store of value that an over-issued and increasingly weaponized/unloved UST.
This was neon-flashing evidence that nations preferred physical gold to paper money or unloved US IOUs.
The Old System Nearing Its Gettysburg Moment
Such signals from the BIS, the COMEX, and the BRICS de-dollarization policies were analogous to armies slowly preparing their financial cannons for a massive shift in a global monetary and financial system.
Sadly, yet objectively, this very system– unknown to most participants and trend speculators—was already reaching a clear Gettysburg Moment in which the fight to save it may continue, but the war is already lost.
The Biggest Casualty? The USD…
Today we see the desperate signs of this losing war in the desperate measures to give credit to an otherwise discredited and debased world reserve currency which even JP Morgan confesses is 15% over-valued based on long-term real exchange rates.
This year alone, the USD has lost 10% of its power and is seeing its worst first-half performance in nearly 40 years.
Meanwhile the EUR-USD is nearing 1.17 and gold is consolidating.
Too Late for Gold?
But despite all these signals of gold rising (more than 75 All-Time-Highs in 2025 alone and outperforming the S&P total return for two decades), there are those who would say gold is too volatile or that it peaked at $3500.00.
In other words, there are those who think it’s too late to catch “the gold bubble”?
Oh dear… what a complete misunderstanding of reality, markets, gold and broken financial systems such a view embodies.
Gold: No Mania, just a Sober Culmination
Gold is not in a bubble.
Gold is not to be compared to a tech stock or a speculation craze, and gold is no longer even a volatility “hedge” or “allocation.”
Rather, gold is becoming the base money for a system that is openly denying its own slow death and losing war.
In other words, gold’s exponential growth and role are not peaking, they are only just beginning.
But let’s show rather than say that, as words have become just as cheap as dollars in a system terrified of its own unravelling.
Gold is not spiking because the future of the global financial system and paper currencies is looking brighter.
Instead, and based on the string cite of signals above, gold is rising because that very debt-based, MMT-fantasy pushing addiction to mouse-clicked money and debt-based (currency-destroying) “growth” is failing.
Trust: Hard to Quantify but Easy to Own
The recent and extraordinary (but entirely inevitable) “rally” in the gold price had nothing to with its yields or earnings (it offers none), but everything to do with its trust.
Or stated otherwise, Gold is not changing, but trust in the global financial and currency system is.
Gold is doing nothing other than what it has done for millennia when debt levels unmask the sins and addictions of its fiat money comptrollers: It is signaling a slow reset toward real money from paper currencies.
In such moments of dramatic global change, looming resets and embarrassing policy failures, the old correlations break down.
Strong dollar or weak dollar, low inflation or high inflation, positive real yields (2023,24 & 25) or negative real yields—gold is rising in all scenarios because gold is breaking away from a broken system that has printed, borrowed, taxed and even traded itself into debt trap.
Who Is Afraid?
Yes, gold loves chaos, but today it’s not Main Street that is running to gold, it is the very central bankers who are terrified of the chaotic system they alone created and broke which are running to this metal.
In short, it’s not the people who are scared—it’s their governments.
Even the IMF, which has recently admitted that it doesn’t fully know what is coming, at least knows that whatever (even horrific CBDC) reset arises, it will have gold (the last truly politically neutral asset in a global financial war) as its anchor rather than a hitherto chastised “pet rock.”
And so, in this backdrop of reality rather than spin, we ask again, is it too late to buy gold?
Silver Speaks
In addition to the foregoing reality checks and answers, let us not forget what silver is saying to us.
Those familiar with long-term, sophisticated precious metal investing are well aware that rising silver (and mining stocks) confirm a bull market in gold, which we argue has not yet even begun despite gold’s recent record highs.
As of this writing, the gold/silver ratio still hovers in the 100:1 area and silver ETF inflows are yawning.
In short, silver, despite its steady movements North, is still greatly lagging the gold moves of late, suggesting that gold has yet to make its true move in price, role and use.
Today silver lags, but when it moves, its move will be explosive.
For us, the current silver lag is a sign that gold is still early rather than too late in its secular direction.
Peak Distrust, Not Peak Gold
The recent gold price tops at $3500 were not a sign of mania or peak gold, but simply an early indicator (and reflection) of the rotten debt foundations beneath a global credit and currency system slowly teetering toward a massive shift.
In such a setting/shift, gold’s value today is merely a fraction of what is to come.
For those thinking beyond the next equity trend or miracle stock toward protecting and growing their wealth, they are not even close to “too late,” but rather right on time.
END
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDRE MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 229
5. COMMODITY REPORT…COPPER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.32 PTS OR 0.39%
//Hang Seng CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 501.06 PTS OR 0.87% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1624 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1605/ Oil UP TO 65.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.20 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1624 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1605 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
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YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1624 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1605 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.32 PTS OR 0.39%
HANG SENG CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed UP 501.06 PTS OR 1.24%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 96.20/ EURO RISES TO 1.1809 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.391//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.98…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5510/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.458 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.198%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.285
3j Gold at $3352.25 Silver at: 36.42 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 31 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.61
3m oil (WTI) into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.98// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.391% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7897 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9366 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.266 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.757 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.727 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.85
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4310 DOWN 6 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.272 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.824 DOWN 3 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Trade Concerns, Trump-Musk Feud Returns
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 08:36 AM
US equity futures – which closed at a fresh all time high after the best quarter since 2023 put them in extremely overbought territory – are weaker, dragged by Tech as TSLA is -5% pre-mkt on Musk vs Trump part 2. Pre-mkt, the balance of Mag7 is mixed with Staples outperforming. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.2% following two successive closes at all-time highs as sentiment remains linked to progress of trade negotiations and the fate of President Trump’s tax and spending bill, which the Senate has failed to pass. Nasdaq futures also drop 0.3% while European stocks also fell. Bond yields are lower as the curve flattens with USD continuing to decline, setting another 52-wk low. As discussed yesterday, the dollar had its worst H1 since 1973 while SPX has its best quarter since 23Q1. Commodities are weaker although gold is soaring. Today is the first piece of the labor market puzzle with JOLTS but we also receive ISM-MFG and vehicle sales. Powell speaks at 9.30am. The voting process on the tax/budget bill continues.
In premarket trading, Tesla falls 5% after President Donald Trump lashed out at Elon Musk, accusing the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive officer of benefiting excessively from government subsidies for electric vehicles.Other Mag7 stocks are mixe ( Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.05%, Alphabet -0.03%, Meta -0.01%, Microsoft +0.07%, Nvidia -0.7%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
US-listed Macau casino operators are trading higher premarket Tuesday, after monthly gaming revenue for the world’s biggest gambling hub exceeded analyst expectations in June. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +3.9%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +4%
AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) falls 5% after the defense company announced proposed underwritten public offerings of $750m worth of shares of its common stock and $600m aggregate principal amount of its convertible senior notes due 2030.
Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) drops 11% after the company offered around 24.2 million shares, raising around $200 million. The offering was priced at $8.25 per share, representing a discount of around 13.3% vs. Monday’s closing price of $9.52.
Greif (GEF) climbs 1.6% after agreeing to sell its containerboard business to Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) for $1.8b in cash.
MSC Industrial (MSM) rises 3% after the distributor of metalworking products posted adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Sweetgreen (SG) drops 3% as TD Cowen downgrades to hold, saying the salad restaurant chain’s key urban footprint “appears to be under extreme pressure.”
Wolfspeed (WOLF) surges 73% after the chipmaker said it would file for bankruptcy to enact a creditor-backed plan to slash $4.6 billion in debt. The company filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 and expects to emerge out of bankruptcy by the end of the third quarter.
Until this morning, stock bulls had seized control of a market that was rattled by Trump’s trade overhaul, a war in the Middle East and persistent uncertainty over growth and inflation. Yet unpredictability persists, with US trade talks racing toward a July 9 deadline and Trump pushing to finalize a budget that’s projected to add more than $3 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade.
“We’ve had a strong quarter, but there’s still too much on the table,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital. “If the trade talks drag or the tax bill stalls, we’ll see how much conviction these bulls really have.”
Trade talks hit a snag after Japan said it would not sacrifice its agricultural sector as part of its tariff talks with the United States, after President Donald Trump complained that the key Asian ally was not buying American rice. That won’t help Japan’s auto sector which is already reeling amid widespread cost cuts to remain competitive in the US market.
As discussed yesterday, Goldman’s flow gurus noted the S&P 500 will add to its rally this month before losing steam into August. “We are entering the strongest month for the S&P historically,” they said, noting that the first two weeks of the months are traditionally the best span of the year for stocks.
While economists are widely expecting Trump’s tariffs to drive inflation higher, subdued price growth so far has cast doubt on that view, emboldening the White House and increasing its pressure on Jerome Powell. Although the Fed has so far held off on cutting interest rates, two governors have recently publicly diverged from Powell, suggesting a reduction could be appropriate as early as July. Swaps imply at least two quarter-points of monetary easing by the end of the year, with an about 65% chance of a third cut by December.
“The bulk of the market sees July as a live meeting, that’s limiting the dollar,” Geoffrey Yu, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., told Bloomberg TV. “Going back to the other asset classes, the fact that July is live and we may get two cuts at least this year, that is underpinning risk sentiment as well.”
Powell and other top central bankers are set to discuss monetary policy at the European Central Bank’s annual retreat later on Tuesday in Portugal. Also on investors’ radar is a slew of economic data, including a wave of PMI readings and the US job openings report ahead of Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls.
“On balance, we see the environment as constructive for risky assets,” noted Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. “But with positioning moving to the long side, we do not see a sharp rally but a slow grind higher in risky assets.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 falls 0.3%, with media and auto shares among the biggest laggards. In individual stocks, Umicore shares rise after the firm boosted its Ebitda guidance. Here are the most notable European movers:
Umicore gains as much as 12%, hitting the highest since late-July 2024, after the materials technology company lifted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year to a range of €790m to €840m.
Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in six weeks, after BNP Paribas Exane analysts initiated coverage on the stock with an outperform recommendation, saying the “attractive” risk-reward at current levels is “difficult to ignore.”
Jeronimo Martins shares surge as much as 5.7%, most since May 8, after Citi upgraded the retailer to buy, citing expectations of a rebound in the Polish food market.
Elixirr shares rise as much as 6.5% after the business management consulting firm completed its move to the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market from AIM.
Baloise and Helvetia gain after UBS lifted recommendations on both stocks to buy from neutral, citing a potential 20% uplift in cash generation from the proposed merger.
Mpac Group plunges as much as 34%, after the packaging and support services company warned annual revenue will be significantly below expectations because tariff uncertainty is causing US customers to defer orders.
InPost drops as much as 6.1% to lowest since April 17 as Advent International sold a 3.5% stake in company via accelerated book-building at a discount to Monday’s closing price.
VusionGroup shares fall as much as 7.9% to €252.6 after the French consumer electronics firm’s offering of 650,000 shares by holder Walmart priced at a discount.
UK homebuilders underperform after data showed house prices fell the most in more than two years in June, in a sign buyers are under pressure after an increase in transaction taxes in April.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced, after halting a four-day rally Monday, as Taiwan saw a strong rebound and South Korean stocks climbed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, putting the index on pace for its highest close since September 2021. Shares of TSMC, Hon Hai and Reliance Industries contributed the most the benchmark’s gains. Taiwanese stocks jumped on a tech rally and bounce in the local currency. Singapore’s Straits Times Index was on pace for a record high. Holding companies helped drive gains in Korea on optimism that legal revisions will be approved this week to help speed corporate reforms.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.4% to the lowest since March 2022 while perceived safe-haven assets outperform, as investors monitor progress on trade talks and wrangling in Washington over President Donald Trump’s tax bill. The yen is leading gains against the greenback in the G-10 sphere, rising 0.8% with the Swiss franc not far behind. The euro is on the verge of its longest winning streak against the greenback in more two decades. The common currency gained as much as 0.4% to $1.1829, and a higher close would extend its rally to a ninth straight day, the longest stretch since 2004.
In rates, treasuries extend Monday’s advance, with yields falling by 2bp to 4bp across tenors, led by euro-zone bonds after ECB’s Martins Kazaks said significant gains for the currency could warrant another rate cut. US yields are lowest since early May, the 10-year under 4.19% for the first time since May 1 but trailing steeper drops for UK and German counterparts. European bonds also advance, led by longer-dated maturities. UK and German 30-year yields fall 6-7 bps each. Gilts got a boost after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said they are looking at the possibility of offloading fewer government bonds over the coming year. A long list of ECB speakers provided few surprises while euro-area inflation rose as expected and was also largely ignored. Among Tuesday’s events are a global monetary policy panel in Sintra that includes Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
In commodities, oil prices are steady with WTI near $65 a barrel; spot gold climbs $40 to around $3,344/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), June ISM manufacturing, May construction spending and May JOLTS job openings (10am) and June Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speakers are limited to Powell’s Sintra panel (9:30am), which also includes BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.3%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.19%
VIX +0.3 points at 17.06
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1186.29
euro +0.2% at $1.1816
WTI crude little changed at $65.16/barrel
Top Overnight News
Musk resumes his campaign against the reconciliation bill, vowing to start a third party and launch primary campaigns against Republicans who vote for it. Tesla shares (-4%) slid premarket after Donald Trump accused Elon Musk of benefiting excessively from EV subsidies, suggesting the Department of Government Efficiency should take a look at his companies. NYT, BBG
Moderate Republicans and hard-line conservatives in the House are expressing increasing opposition to the Senate’s version of the “big, beautiful bill” just days before the lower chamber is set to consider the legislation, a daunting dynamic for GOP leaders as they race to meet their self-imposed Friday deadline. The Hill
US Senate parliamentarian has ruled that Sen. Murkowski’s Alaska carve-out for SNAP is compliant with the Byrd Rule, but the Medicaid one is not compliant, via Punchbowl’s Desiderio.
US Senate votes 99-1 to remove the AI state regulation moratorium from the Reconciliation Bill (i.e. Senate adopts Blackburn’s amendment).
Punchbowl reports US Senate Majority leader Thune said, “We’re getting to the end here.”, adds It’s unclear if Thune has the votes necessary for passage, or if he’s prepared to plow ahead with a final vote anyway.
Punchbowl reports the House Rules Committee is “slated to come at noon to begin to prepare the bill for floor consideration. The full House is expected back Wednesday.”
Trump’s top trade officials are scaling back their ambitions for comprehensive reciprocal deals with foreign countries, seeking narrower agreements to avert the looking reimposition of US tariffs. People familiar wit the talks said US officials were seeking phased deals with most engaged countries as they race to find agreements by July 9 deadline. FT
A private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity bounced back into expansionary territory in June, as a temporary trade truce between Beijing and Washington eased some pressures on Chinese factories. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May. WSJ
UK house prices fell the most in more than two years in June, Nationwide said, as an increase in transaction taxes piled pressure on buyers. It leaves prices just 2.1% above the level seen a year ago, a fall in real terms. WSJ
Japan will not sacrifice the agricultural sector as part of its tariff talks with the United States, its top negotiator said on Tuesday, after President Donald Trump complained that the key Asian ally was not buying American rice. RTRS
Eurozone inflation expectations cool, with 12-months falling to +2.8% (down 30bp) and 36-months easing to +2.4% (down 10bp). ECB’s Lane says the battle to bring Eurozone inflation back to the 2% target is complete. BBG
UK house prices fell the most in more than two years in June, Nationwide said, as an increase in transaction taxes piled pressure on buyers. It leaves prices just 2.1% above the level seen a year ago, a fall in real terms.
DOGE officials at the SEC have in recent weeks sought meetings with staff to explore loosening regulations on SPACs and reporting requirements for private investment advisers, Reuters reported. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
US narrows trade focus to secure deals, while officials were seeking phased deals with the most engaged countries as they race to find agreements by July 9th, according to FT.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan won’t do anything to sacrifice the agricultural sector in US trade talks, while Farm Minister Koizumi said he won’t comment on US President Trump’s posts regarding Japan’s rice imports.
EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and it wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, while it is pushing for quotas and exemptions to effectively lower a 25% tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, according to Bloomberg.
RTÉ News understands that EU ambassadors were informed that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into the pharmaceutical sector would continue and would lead to measures “one way or another”. It is understood the EU’s own drive for simplification of rules is being offered as a concession, as well as plans to increase purchases of LNG and AI technology.
EU reportedly seeks immediate relief from tariffs in key sectors as part of any trade deal with the US; wants immediate relief as soon as an initial agreement is reached, rather than waiting weeks or month for a final accord, via Reuters sources. Many EU members said a deal without this is unacceptable.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains capped amid this week’s busy data calendar and with underperformance in Japan owing to recent currency strength. ASX 200 treaded water with the index just about kept afloat as strength in defensives offset the losses in the mining and materials sectors. Nikkei 225 underperformed as exporters suffered the ill effects of recent currency strength and with the predominantly better-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey increasing the scope for a more hawkish BoJ, while US President Trump also noted they will be sending Japan a letter regarding tariffs after not accepting US rice. Shanghai Comp edged mild gains after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansionary territory, although the upside was limited for Chinese markets amid the holiday closure in Hong Kong and the absence of Stock Connect flows.
Top Asian News
BoJ official said some automakers mentioned the impact of US trade policy although others cited improvement in profits due to pass-through of costs, while the official added there were no clear voices from firms citing the impact of US trade policy on capex plans.
BoJ’s Masu says he does not have any strong disagreement to the view that underlying inflation is still short of 2%. Want to scrutinise how prices move after recent commodity spikes moderate (with specific reference to rice). At some point, the BoJ must “unload its huge ETF holdings”. Must do so cautiously. When asked if he is a dove/hawk, responds “probably stand in the middle, have not strong view”.
European benchmarks began the day in the green, though futures were drifting into the open and this trajectory has increased since, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Specifics behind the move somewhat light, potentially a function of a modest pullback from recent gains and as markets look to the first very busy day of a front-loaded week. Sectors mixed, at the top of the pile we have Utilities, potentially boosted by the European heatwave and soaring demand for A/C.
Top European News
Olaf Sleijpen takes over from Klaas Knot as head of Dutch central bank today, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Nagel says we are in “calm waters” on inflation, but cannot be complacent, via Bloomberg TV. Policy is in neutral territory. Uncertainty warrants a meeting-by-meeting approach.
ECB’s Wunsch says risks are more tilted to the downside, if a move on rates was needed it would be down, via CNBC; broad consensus is that the job is primarily done
ECB’s Lane says it is going to be a lively few years, via CNBC; not very helpful to provide too much forward guidance. 10% tariffs are part of the baseline. EUR appreciating has a tightening effect. Has been some rebalancing by global investors to the EUR.
ECB’s de Guindos says the level of uncertainty is huge, via Bloomberg TV; must keep all options open. EUR/USD at 1.17 is perfectly acceptable, even 1.20 could be overlooked, any more would be “complicated”. The possibility of undershooting the 2% inflation target is quite limited. Risks tilted to the downside. An additional cut would not help the economy to improve, more certainty is what is required. Speed of the FX move is more concerning than the actual level.
ECB’s Escriva says the symmetric 2% inflation goal should continue to be the priority.
ECB’s Kazaks says any rate adjustments will be nothing big; further moves would be about signalling and fine-turning. Further EUR gains could increase the case for another cut. 10% US Tariff, plus EUR appreciation is large enough to hurt exports; any further rate cut would be small
BoE Governor Bailey says need to watch carefully for the consequences of declining inflation; labour market is softening. Path of interest rates will continue to be gradually downwards. Not convinced cyclical productivity will come back. Have seen a steepening of the long-term bond yield curve. Does not think there is anything unusual about the UK when it comes to the yield curve. There will be no sustained growth without stable and low inflation.
SNB’s Zanetti says the central bank has the tools to deal with the current challenging situation; adds that negative rates are an option.
Blonde Money reports there are 84 UK Labour MPs who are negative on the welfare reform, citing their latest analysis.
FX
DXY began the new month/quarter/HY relatively stable under 97.00 following recent selling pressure. However, as the morning progressed the pressure has ramped up with the index down to a 96.37 low. Focus firmly on the Reconciliation Bill (Senate debate ongoing, into its 20th hour).
Havens outperform as the tone continues to deteriorate throughout the morning, USD/JPY as low as 142.83 vs a 144.06 high and USD/CHF below 0.79 to a 0.7875 base.
EUR/USD above the 1.18 mark. Climbing gradually throughout the morning, a lot of ECB speak on the EUR. Further upside somewhat endorsed by de Guindos saying that EUR/USD at 1.17 is perfectly acceptable, even 1.20 could be overlooked, while any more would be “complicated”.
EUR unreactive to the morning’s inflation data, which was as-expected across the board. No move in ECB pricing, still near-enough implies one more cut in 2025.
Antipodeans have a slight upward bias, despite the risk tone, buoyed by the overnight release of the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansionary territory.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1534 vs exp. 7.1509 (Prev. 7.1586)
Fixed Income
Complex is bid, continuing Monday’s gains. Supported by the deteriorating risk tone and digesting/awaiting numerous central bank officials.
USTs continue to bull-flatten this morning, extending the bias that was seen on Monday amid quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI data and Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.
USTs are just off best in a 112-00 to 112-12 band, surpassing the 112-05 June high and now eyeing the 112-23 May peak.
Bunds unreactive to Flash HICP for June, printed in-line with analyst forecasts for the three main figures and while the Services Y/Y ticked up to 2.3% (prev. 2.2%), it is worth reminding the print has trimmed significantly from the 4% level seen in April.
Benchmark around 10 ticks off best in a 130.18 to 130.73 band. If the upside resumes, resistance eyed at 130.80 from last Thursday before a handful of levels earlier that week between 131.12 to 131.20.
Gilts outperform, but only modestly so, no move to its own unrevised PMI or a strong Green auction (as is usually the case). Numerous remarks from Bailey, nothing that has moved the dial though yield commentary was interesting. Ahead, the government presents its Welfare Reform Bill to the Commons for a second read, should pass but not a guarantee given expected significant rebellion.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks in the red, but only modestly so, action this morning has been choppy with the space caught between the deteriorating risk tone and the softer USD. WTI resides in a USD 64.67-65.32/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.31-66.97/bbl range.
Specifics light, but we have seen a handful of geopolitical developments: 1) Iranian Government says there is no date or decision on negotiations with Washington, 2) “No breakthrough in Gaza negotiations and a large-scale campaign aimed at increasing pressure on Hamas remains an option”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press.
Precious metals firmer, bolstered by the discussed risk tone. XAU above the USD 3300/oz mark, surpassing its 50-DMA at USD 3320/oz but stalling before the 26th June peak at USD 3350/oz.
Base metals firmer across the board, off best given the tone but proving much more resilient than other assets. Resilience that comes from the better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, a release which lifted 3M LME Copper to a three-month peak at USD 9.98k.
HSBC increases avg. gold price at USD 3,175/oz by the end of this year; sees USD 3,125 in 2026 (prev. saw 2,915).
Commerzbank sees year-end copper prices at USD 9,500/ton (prev. saw 9,400).
Geopolitics
US State Department approved the potential sale of munitions guidance kits and munitions support to Israel for an estimated USD 510mln, according to the Pentagon.
G7 issued a joint statement on Iran and the Middle East reiterating support for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Iran’s Foreign Minister told CBS that he doesn’t think negotiations will resume so quickly, according to Al Jazeera.
Large explosions were heard after the Israeli forces blew up residential buildings east of Gaza City, according to Al Jazeera.
Visegrad 24 posted on social media platform X regarding a mass-casualty event in Tehran after a drone struck an IRGC meeting with several people killed and wounded.
Rockets attack reportedly targeted an Iraqi military airbase in Kirkuk, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
White House said President Trump will sign an EO to terminate Syria sanctions. It was separately reported that the US is reviewing Syria’s state sponsor of terror designation, while the action will end Syria’s isolation from the international financial system and set the stage for global commerce and investment from the region and the US, according to a senior Treasury official.#
“No breakthrough in Gaza negotiations and a large-scale campaign aimed at increasing pressure on Hamas remains an option”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press.
US Event Calendar
9:45 am: Jun F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 52
10:00 am: Jun ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.8, prior 48.5
10:00 am: Jun ISM Prices Paid, est. 69.5, prior 69.4
10:00 am: May Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.4%
10:00 am: May JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7300k, prior 7391k
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to the second half of 2025. If you were in the UK or large parts of central or southern Europe last night, and without air con, I suspect you’ll be feeling the same as me this morning. Exhausted, hot and bitten all over!! Never have I been looking forward to the small amount of rain on the forecast tomorrow as much.
As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly release our usual performance review covering the month and quarter just gone. If you’d have told me on April 8th, when the S&P 500 was already around -12% in the first week of the quarter, that it would ultimately end up +10.94% at the end of the three months in total return terms, I would have probably asked you if you needed to sit down and have a warm, cold or stiff drink to compose yourself. It’s easy to forget now that at the start of the quarter, the S&P 500 had its fifth largest two-day slump since WWII. Also noteworthy in Henry’s piece is that the dollar posted its worst H1 performance since 1973. So the impact of events around Liberation Day has still left a big mark even with the big equity bounce.
It was fitting that the quarter ended on a positive note with the S&P 500 (+0.52%) seeing a third consecutive advance and a fresh ATH. Several factors powered the rally forward, but the main ones were growing optimism around US trade deals, along with continuing anticipation that the Fed would be cutting rates by year-end. So that helped spur a notably cross-asset rally, with US HY spreads (-2bps) closing at their tightest since early March, at 290bps, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield also fell -4.9bps to 4.228%.
In terms of the latest on trade, there’s just over a week until the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension runs out on July 9. But the mood music has been increasingly supportive, which has reassured investors that several deals are set to be announced beforehand. For instance, markets reacted to the news late-Sunday night that Canada would be rescinding its Digital Services Tax to advance its trade discussions with the US, with the aim of reaching a deal by July 21. And separately, Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Bloomberg yesterday that “there’s going to be a flurry going into the final week as the pressure increases”. We saw the first indications of this yesterday as Bloomberg reported that the EU is willing to accept a trade deal with the US that keeps the 10% universal tariff in place, as long as there are certain carve outs in key sectors. Additionally they are looking for quotas or exemptions for the higher levies in areas such as autos (25%) as well as steel and aluminium (50%). Meanwhile on Japan, President Trump threatened on social media that he would impose new tariffs on Japan after suggesting that the country was unwilling to import US made rice. So things are heating up ahead of next week but Trump has talked about the possibility of extending the July 9 tariff deadline, saying on Fox News on Sunday, that “I don’t think I’ll need to”, but that “I could, no big deal.” So for now at least, the market consensus is that we’re not going to see a huge shock next week, and it’s worth noting that given the 10% baseline has now been in place since early April, the baseline is a relatively high tariff rate anyway. One of the questions in the survey asks your view about how the July 9th deadline will pass so please feel free to answer the survey in the link at the top.
Elsewhere, the focus is very much on the US Senate right now, as the Republicans are still trying to pass the tax bill by the July 4 holiday. The deadline is still possible to achieve, but it’s proving politically difficult given the tight margins the Republicans have, and given that the House and Senate both need to pass the same version of the bill. Currently the Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, along with the tie-breaking vote, so they can afford to lose 3 votes. But Senator Rand Paul has said he’s a no, whilst Senator Thom Tillis has denounced the Medicaid cuts in the bill, and he announced over the weekend that he’d be retiring, so doesn’t have to worry about a primary challenge. So there’s not much room for manoeuvre among the remaining holdouts. In addition, the House still need to pass the Senate version, and the original version only passed the House by 215-214, so this is a very delicate balance to keep that coalition together. That said, from a market perspective, there’s not too much concern about the July 4 deadline, since the debt ceiling increase in the bill isn’t an issue until later in the summer. So, if the timing did slide, it would have little impact from a market point of view, and Trump himself said on Friday that the July 4 deadline was “not the end-all”.
Otherwise, there was growing anticipation about Fed rate cuts this year, which helped to propel risk assets higher. This came as the White House once again called on Fed Chair Powell and the FOMC to lower rates over 250bps. Indeed, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting moved up +2.5bps on the day to 66.6bps, the most since early May. So that supported a rally in US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield coming down -4.9bps on the day to 4.228%, whilst the 2yr yield fell -2.9bps to 3.72%. And with nominal and real yields coming down, that helped to lift equities, particularly in the more cyclical sectors. In addition, there was a late rally in the US session as Apple (+2.0%) announced that the company was considering using a third-party AI to back a new version of its virtual assistant Siri. The late rally from Apple and other AI-focused names saw the NASDAQ gain +0.47% after being unchanged just over an hour before the New York close.
Over in Europe, the focus is turning to this morning’s flash CPI print for the Euro Area. But before that, we had the country readings from Germany and Italy yesterday, which surprised on the downside. So in Germany, the EU-harmonised reading unexpectedly fell to +2.0% (vs. +2.2% expected), whilst the Italian reading remained at +1.7% (vs. +1.8% expected). That countered the upside surprise from France last Friday, and helped front-end bond yields to remain steady, with the 2yr German yield down -0.2bps yesterday. However, the long-end struggled across most of the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+1.9bps) and BTPs (+0.3bps) all rising. It was a similar story for equities too, with the STOXX 600 down -0.42%.
The highlight in Asia is a trickier session for Japan after the trade news above. The Nikkei (-0.86%) is fighting back from deeper losses early but is down from a near one-year peak. A decent Tankan survey has also helped to strengthen the Yen. Chinese markets are either side of the flatline with Hong Kong closed today for a public holiday. On a positive note, the KOSPI (+1.13%) is leading gains in the region, buoyed by a near +2.0% rise in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics. S&P 500 (-0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) futures are both edging lower.
Turning back to China, the manufacturing sector has returned to growth in June after a brief contraction in May, although overseas demand continues to decline amid ongoing external uncertainties. The Caixin manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4 in June, surpassing expectations of 49.3 and showing a significant rise from the 48.3 recorded the previous month. This data follows a recent government PMI report indicating that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in June.
Elsewhere, confidence among major Japanese manufacturers has improved over the three months leading to June, as companies continue to uphold their optimistic long-term investment plans, even in the face of trade uncertainty. The headline index reflecting the business confidence of large manufacturers stood at +13 in June, an increase from +12 in March, and exceeding market expectations of a +10 reading. Additional details reveal that the large manufacturing outlook for the second quarter was recorded at 12.0, consistent with the previous figure of 12.0, and stronger than the anticipated 9.0. All this supports our out of consensus rate hike view for July but trade will be a bigger swing factor. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM manufacturing for June, and the JOLTS report for May. Elsewhere, we’ll get the Euro Area flash CPI print for June, German unemployment for June, and the final manufacturing PMIs for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel.
2b EUROPEAN REPORT
Markets await Powell and US Senate vote-a-rama which Thune suggests is “getting to the end” – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 06:18 AM
US Senate vote-a-rama is still ongoing, Thune suggests we are “getting to the end”, unclear if he has enough votes
EU reportedly wants immediate relief in any US deal, said to be accepting universal tariffs but is seeking key exemptions
Risk tone began firmer after strong Chinese data; thereafter, deteriorated into and through the European morning
US futures in the red, ES -0.2%, awaiting updates on the Reconciliation Bill, Chair Powell and a packed data docket
USD continues to fall. JPY and CHF lead, fixed bid, XAU higher.
EUR and EGBs unreactive to as-expected flash HICP and numerous ECB speakers who have focused on EUR strength
Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMIs, ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB Central Banking Forum, Speakers including ECB’s Schnabel & Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, BoJ’s Ueda, BoE’s Bailey & BoK’s Rhee. Earnings from Constellation Brands. Holiday closures in Hong Kong & Canada.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
US narrows trade focus to secure deals, while officials were seeking phased deals with the most engaged countries as they race to find agreements by July 9th, according to FT.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan won’t do anything to sacrifice the agricultural sector in US trade talks, while Farm Minister Koizumi said he won’t comment on US President Trump’s posts regarding Japan’s rice imports.
EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and it wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, while it is pushing for quotas and exemptions to effectively lower a 25% tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, according to Bloomberg.
RTÉ News understands that EU ambassadors were informed that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into the pharmaceutical sector would continue and would lead to measures “one way or another”. It is understood the EU’s own drive for simplification of rules is being offered as a concession, as well as plans to increase purchases of LNG and AI technology.
EU reportedly seeks immediate relief from tariffs in key sectors as part of any trade deal with the US; wants immediate relief as soon as an initial agreement is reached, rather than waiting weeks or month for a final accord, via Reuters sources. Many EU members said a deal without this is unacceptable.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European benchmarks began the day in the green, though futures were drifting into the open and this trajectory has increased since, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%.
Specifics behind the move somewhat light, potentially a function of a modest pullback from recent gains and as markets look to the first very busy day of a front-loaded week.
Sectors mixed, at the top of the pile we have Utilities, potentially boosted by the European heatwave and soaring demand for A/C.
Stateside, futures have also been drifting, ES -0.2%; focus on Capitol Hill as the Senate enters its 20th hour of vote-a-rama on the Reconciliation Bill. Updates fluid, no clear view on when the final vote will be as it stands. House expected to get it on Wednesday, remains to be seen how smooth the passage there will be and if Trump’s 4th July deadline can hold.
DXY began the new month/quarter/HY relatively stable under 97.00 following recent selling pressure. However, as the morning progressed the pressure has ramped up with the index down to a 96.37 low. Focus firmly on the Reconciliation Bill (Senate debate ongoing, into its 20th hour).
Havens outperform as the tone continues to deteriorate throughout the morning, USD/JPY as low as 142.83 vs a 144.06 high and USD/CHF below 0.79 to a 0.7875 base.
EUR/USD above the 1.18 mark. Climbing gradually throughout the morning, a lot of ECB speak on the EUR. Further upside somewhat endorsed by de Guindos saying that EUR/USD at 1.17 is perfectly acceptable, even 1.20 could be overlooked, while any more would be “complicated”.
EUR unreactive to the morning’s inflation data, which was as-expected across the board. No move in ECB pricing, still near-enough implies one more cut in 2025.
Antipodeans have a slight upward bias, despite the risk tone, buoyed by the overnight release of the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansionary territory.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1534 vs exp. 7.1509 (Prev. 7.1586)
Complex is bid, continuing Monday’s gains. Supported by the deteriorating risk tone and digesting/awaiting numerous central bank officials.
USTs continue to bull-flatten this morning, extending the bias that was seen on Monday amid quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI data and Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.
USTs are just off best in a 112-00 to 112-12 band, surpassing the 112-05 June high and now eyeing the 112-23 May peak.
Bunds unreactive to Flash HICP for June, printed in-line with analyst forecasts for the three main figures and while the Services Y/Y ticked up to 2.3% (prev. 2.2%), it is worth reminding the print has trimmed significantly from the 4% level seen in April.
Benchmark around 10 ticks off best in a 130.18 to 130.73 band. If the upside resumes, resistance eyed at 130.80 from last Thursday before a handful of levels earlier that week between 131.12 to 131.20.
Gilts outperform, but only modestly so, no move to its own unrevised PMI or a strong Green auction (as is usually the case). Numerous remarks from Bailey, nothing that has moved the dial though yield commentary was interesting. Ahead, the government presents its Welfare Reform Bill to the Commons for a second read, should pass but not a guarantee given expected significant rebellion.
Crude benchmarks in the red, but only modestly so, action this morning has been choppy with the space caught between the deteriorating risk tone and the softer USD. WTI resides in a USD 64.67-65.32/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.31-66.97/bbl range.
Specifics light, but we have seen a handful of geopolitical developments: 1) Iranian Government says there is no date or decision on negotiations with Washington, 2) “No breakthrough in Gaza negotiations and a large-scale campaign aimed at increasing pressure on Hamas remains an option”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press.
Precious metals firmer, bolstered by the discussed risk tone. XAU above the USD 3300/oz mark, surpassing its 50-DMA at USD 3320/oz but stalling before the 26th June peak at USD 3350/oz.
Base metals firmer across the board, off best given the tone but proving much more resilient than other assets. Resilience that comes from the better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, a release which lifted 3M LME Copper to a three-month peak at USD 9.98k.
HSBC increases avg. gold price at USD 3,175/oz by the end of this year; sees USD 3,125 in 2026 (prev. saw 2,915).
Commerzbank sees year-end copper prices at USD 9,500/ton (prev. saw 9,400).
EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Jun) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 49.4); German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 49.0); French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 48.1 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 47.8)
German Unemployment Rate SA (Jun) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.3%); Unemployment Chg SA (Jun) 11.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 34.0k)
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Jun) 0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 47.7 vs. Exp. 47.7 (Prev. 47.7)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Olaf Sleijpen takes over from Klaas Knot as head of Dutch central bank today, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Nagel says we are in “calm waters” on inflation, but cannot be complacent, via Bloomberg TV. Policy is in neutral territory. Uncertainty warrants a meeting-by-meeting approach.
ECB’s Wunsch says risks are more tilted to the downside, if a move on rates was needed it would be down, via CNBC; broad consensus is that the job is primarily done
ECB’s Lane says it is going to be a lively few years, via CNBC; not very helpful to provide too much forward guidance. 10% tariffs are part of the baseline. EUR appreciating has a tightening effect. Has been some rebalancing by global investors to the EUR.
ECB’s de Guindos says the level of uncertainty is huge, via Bloomberg TV; must keep all options open. EUR/USD at 1.17 is perfectly acceptable, even 1.20 could be overlooked, any more would be “complicated”. The possibility of undershooting the 2% inflation target is quite limited. Risks tilted to the downside. An additional cut would not help the economy to improve, more certainty is what is required. Speed of the FX move is more concerning than the actual level.
ECB’s Escriva says the symmetric 2% inflation goal should continue to be the priority.
ECB’s Kazaks says any rate adjustments will be nothing big; further moves would be about signalling and fine-turning. Further EUR gains could increase the case for another cut. 10% US Tariff, plus EUR appreciation is large enough to hurt exports; any further rate cut would be small
BoE Governor Bailey says need to watch carefully for the consequences of declining inflation; labour market is softening. Path of interest rates will continue to be gradually downwards. Not convinced cyclical productivity will come back. Have seen a steepening of the long-term bond yield curve. Does not think there is anything unusual about the UK when it comes to the yield curve. There will be no sustained growth without stable and low inflation.
SNB’s Zanetti says the central bank has the tools to deal with the current challenging situation; adds that negative rates are an option.
Blonde Money reports there are 84 UK Labour MPs who are negative on the welfare reform, citing their latest analysis.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Senate parliamentarian has ruled that Sen. Murkowski’s Alaska carve-out for SNAP is compliant with the Byrd Rule, but the Medicaid one is not compliant, via Punchbowl’s Desiderio.
US Senate votes 99-1 to remove the AI state regulation moratorium from the Reconciliation Bill (i.e. Senate adopts Blackburn’s amendment).
Punchbowl reports US Senate Majority leader Thune said, “We’re getting to the end here.”, adds It’s unclear if Thune has the votes necessary for passage, or if he’s prepared to plow ahead with a final vote anyway.
Punchbowl reports the House Rules Committee is “slated to come at noon to begin to prepare the bill for floor consideration. The full House is expected back Wednesday.”
GEOPOLITICS
US State Department approved the potential sale of munitions guidance kits and munitions support to Israel for an estimated USD 510mln, according to the Pentagon.
G7 issued a joint statement on Iran and the Middle East reiterating support for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Iran’s Foreign Minister told CBS that he doesn’t think negotiations will resume so quickly, according to Al Jazeera.
Large explosions were heard after the Israeli forces blew up residential buildings east of Gaza City, according to Al Jazeera.
Visegrad 24 posted on social media platform X regarding a mass-casualty event in Tehran after a drone struck an IRGC meeting with several people killed and wounded.
Rockets attack reportedly targeted an Iraqi military airbase in Kirkuk, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
White House said President Trump will sign an EO to terminate Syria sanctions. It was separately reported that the US is reviewing Syria’s state sponsor of terror designation, while the action will end Syria’s isolation from the international financial system and set the stage for global commerce and investment from the region and the US, according to a senior Treasury official.#
“No breakthrough in Gaza negotiations and a large-scale campaign aimed at increasing pressure on Hamas remains an option”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin in the red, still comfortably above the USD 105k mark but drifting further away from the USD 110k level that was in some focus on Monday.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains capped amid this week’s busy data calendar and with underperformance in Japan owing to recent currency strength.
ASX 200 treaded water with the index just about kept afloat as strength in defensives offset the losses in the mining and materials sectors.
Nikkei 225 underperformed as exporters suffered the ill effects of recent currency strength and with the predominantly better-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey increasing the scope for a more hawkish BoJ, while US President Trump also noted they will be sending Japan a letter regarding tariffs after not accepting US rice.
Shanghai Comp edged mild gains after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansionary territory, although the upside was limited for Chinese markets amid the holiday closure in Hong Kong and the absence of Stock Connect flows.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ official said some automakers mentioned the impact of US trade policy although others cited improvement in profits due to pass-through of costs, while the official added there were no clear voices from firms citing the impact of US trade policy on capex plans.
BoJ’s Masu says he does not have any strong disagreement to the view that underlying inflation is still short of 2%. Want to scrutinise how prices move after recent commodity spikes moderate (with specific reference to rice). At some point, the BoJ must “unload its huge ETF holdings”. Must do so cautiously. When asked if he is a dove/hawk, responds “probably stand in the middle, have not strong view”.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.3)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q2) 13.0 vs. Exp. 10.0 (Prev. 12.0)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q2) 12.0 vs. Exp. 9.0 (Prev. 12.0)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2) 34.0 vs. Exp. 34.0 (Prev. 35.0)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q2) 27.0 vs. Exp. 29.0 (Prev. 28.0)
Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex Estimate (Q2) 11.5% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 3.1%)
2 c ASIAN REPORT
Europe primed for a quiet open with the EU to accept Trump’s universal tariff while seeking sectoral exemptions – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 01:44 AM
APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains tentative; Wall Street closed higher.
The Senate vote-a-rama process is ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill, before then sending it to Trump’s desk.
EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors, according to Bloomberg.
European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.
DXY is steady, EUR/USD briefly ventured onto a 1.18 handle, USD/JPY marginally extended on its downside.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMIs, German Unemployment Rate, EZ HICP, US ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB SCE & Central Banking Forum, Speakers include ECB’s de Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel & Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, BoJ’s Ueda, BoE’s Bailey & BoK’s Rhee.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks gained and the major US indices ended the month and quarter on the front foot as Apple (+2%) provided tailwinds amid reports that the tech behemoth reportedly weighs powering Siri with Anthropic or OpenAI tech. Nonetheless, the focus on Monday was on events at Capitol Hill with the Senate clearing a key hurdle in Trump’s tax bill, with the vote-a-rama process now ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill before then sending it to Trump’s desk. In addition, Trump continued to pile on the pressure on “Too Late” Powell, who participates in a conference with BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde, and BoJ’s Ueda on Tuesday. The Dollar was lower and sold off through the duration of the US session to the benefit of G10 peers (ex. GBP), while T-Notes bull flattened amid month/quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI and Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.
SPX +0.52% at 6,205, NDX +0.64% at 22,679, DJI +0.63% at 44,095, RUT +0.12% at 2,175.
US President Trump said they will be sending Japan a letter after not accepting US rice despite a rice shortage and commented that “we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”
White House Press Secretary said President Trump is meeting with the trade team this week to set country rates, while she said we will hear about a trade deal with India very soon.
US narrows trade focus to secure deals, while officials were seeking phased deals with the most engaged countries as they race to find agreements by July 9th, according to FT.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan won’t do anything to sacrifice the agricultural sector in US trade talks, while Farm Minister Koizumi said he won’t comment on US President Trump’s posts regarding Japan’s rice imports.
EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and it wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, while it is pushing for quotas and exemptions to effectively lower a 25% tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, according to Bloomberg.
UK is currently planning to keep its digital services tax, according to Bloomberg sources.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump said “Jerome “Too Late” Powell, and his entire Board, should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen to the US… We should be paying 1% Interest, or better!”
White House Press Secretary Leavitt said high interest rates remain a problem and that President Trump sent a handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell asking Powell to lower rates, while Leavitt also commented she will not get ahead of President Trump about naming a potential Powell successor.
Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) does not see any prospect of 1970s-style stagflation, while he said there is definitely the possibility of both inflation and employment getting worse at the same time.
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, beginning in September, compared to its previous forecast of one cut in December.
US House Rules Committee will meet on Tuesday at noon to consider the reconciliation package, according to Punchbowl.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains capped amid this week’s busy data calendar and with underperformance in Japan owing to recent currency strength.
ASX 200 treaded water with the index just about kept afloat as strength in defensives offset the losses in the mining and materials sectors.
Nikkei 225 underperformed as exporters suffered the ill effects of recent currency strength and with the predominantly better-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey increasing the scope for a more hawkish BoJ, while US President Trump also noted they will be sending Japan a letter regarding tariffs after not accepting US rice.
Shanghai Comp edged mild gains after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansionary territory, although the upside was limited for Chinese markets amid the holiday closure in Hong Kong and the absence of Stock Connect flows.
US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.2%) were rangebound ahead of looming data releases and risk events, while participants awaited the developments on Capitol Hill where the Senate continued to debate amendments to Trump’s megabill.
European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound beneath the 97.00 level which provides some much-needed respite from the recent selling pressure that contributed to the greenback’s worst first-half performance in over 50 years. The attention stateside remained on the ongoing vote-a-rama related to Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” at the Senate with final passage expected later today, while Trump reiterated criticism against Fed Chair Powell and renewed his call for the Fed to lower rates in which he suggested they should be paying 1% interest or lower.
EUR/USD held on to the prior day’s gains but is off intraday highs after failing to sustain a brief foray into 1.1800 territory and with little reaction seen to the latest ECB rhetoric as participants look ahead to the panel participation of top central bankers at the ECB’s Sintra Forum later today.
GBP/USD struggled for direction after yesterday’s choppy performance and with a lack of surprises from the recent UK GDP numbers which matched their initial estimates.
USD/JPY marginally extended on its declines following the dollar’s recent demise and in the aftermath of the mostly stronger-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey.
Antipodeans briefly pared some of Monday’s advances albeit with the reversal limited after the PBoC set a firmer yuan reference rate and Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped estimates.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1534 vs exp. 7.1509 (Prev. 7.1586)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures held on to its spoils after bull flattening yesterday amid quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI data and Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.
Bund futures rebounded off the prior day’s trough after support held at the 130.00 level with participants awaiting several ECB speakers later today.
10yr JGB futures were initially indecisive and traded on both sides of the 139.00 level after the mostly stronger-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey but were later boosted in the aftermath of the 10yr JGB auction which resulted in a slightly lower bid-to-cover but higher accepted prices.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were lacklustre amid the absence of oil-specific catalysts and as the Iran-Israel ceasefire remained intact.
Spot gold gradually edged higher above the USD 3,300/oz level following recent dollar weakness and as participants brace for upcoming data releases.
Copper futures lacked conviction but kept afloat after better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was ultimately little changed with price action choppy around the USD 107k territory.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ official said some automakers mentioned the impact of US trade policy although others cited improvement in profits due to pass-through of costs, while the official added there were no clear voices from firms citing the impact of US trade policy on capex plans.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.3)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q2) 13.0 vs. Exp. 10.0 (Prev. 12.0)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q2) 12.0 vs. Exp. 9.0 (Prev. 12.0)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2) 34.0 vs. Exp. 34.0 (Prev. 35.0)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q2) 27.0 vs. Exp. 29.0 (Prev. 28.0)
Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex Estimate (Q2) 11.5% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 3.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu is to meet with US President Trump on July 7th, according to Axios.
Israel is willing to soften some of its positions in an attempt to reach a text agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that would also be acceptable to Hamas, but will not agree to a commitment in advance that the temporary ceasefire will bring an end to the war, according to Axios citing an Israeli senior official.
US State Department approved the potential sale of munitions guidance kits and munitions support to Israel for an estimated USD 510mln, according to the Pentagon.
G7 issued a joint statement on Iran and the Middle East reiterating support for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Iran’s Foreign Minister told CBS that he doesn’t think negotiations will resume so quickly, according to Al Jazeera.
Member of Iran’s National Security Committee said “The elimination of Revolutionary Guards commanders will lead to a decisive response; we too can threaten Netanyahu’s life”, according to Kann News.
Large explosions were heard after the Israeli forces blew up residential buildings east of Gaza City, according to Al Jazeera.
Visegrad 24 posted on social media platform X regarding a mass-casualty event in Tehran after a drone struck an IRGC meeting with several people killed and wounded.
Rockets attack reportedly targeted an Iraqi military airbase in Kirkuk, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
White House said President Trump will sign an EO to terminate Syria sanctions. It was separately reported that the US is reviewing Syria’s state sponsor of terror designation, while the action will end Syria’s isolation from the international financial system and set the stage for global commerce and investment from the region and the US, according to a senior Treasury official.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US Envoy to Ukraine Kellogg said Russia cannot continue to stall for time while it bombs civilian targets in Ukraine.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB President Lagarde said the world ahead is more uncertain and that is likely to make inflation more volatile, while she added that regular supply disruptions are leading firms to adjust prices more frequently, contributing to greater inflation volatility. Furthermore, Lagarde said large shocks can trigger feedback loops and non-linear effects.
ECB’s Simkus does not know if they’ll have all the information they need by September and any move on rates is more likely towards year-end, while he said the ECB would decide meeting by meeting and avoid pre-commitment due to an unpredictable environment.
Olaf Sleijpen takes over from Klaas Knot as head of Dutch central bank today, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Jun) 0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
4.European affairs
GERMANY/ISRAEL IRAN/USA
Germany’s Merz sees no reason to criticize Israeli, US attacks on Iran
“There is no reason for us to criticize what Israel started a week ago, nor is there any reason to criticize what America did last weekend,” Merz said. NATO’s Rutte defended the US’s attack as well.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks during an industrial sector association BDI event in Berlin, Germany, June 23, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/CHRISTIAN MANG)ByREUTERSJUNE 23, 2025 17:14Updated: JUNE 23, 2025 17:38
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday that there was no reason for him to criticize attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran.
“There is no reason for us, or for me personally, to criticize what Israel started a week ago, nor is there any reason to criticize what America did last weekend,” Merz said at an event organized by the BDI German industrial lobby group.
“Yes, it is not without risk, but leaving it as it was wasn’t an option either,” he added.
Merz said it was evident that Iran was on a path to creating a nuclear weapon.
“The evidence that Iran is continuing on its path to building a nuclear weapon can no longer be seriously disputed,” he said.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte holds a press conference ahead of a NATO summit, in The Hague, Netherlands June 23, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/YVES HERMAN)
NATO Chief Mark Rutte also defended US strikes
US strikes on Iran over the weekend did not violate international law, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters on Monday ahead of a summit for the military alliance.
A fact-finding mission mandated by the United Nations said on Monday that some of Israel’s strikes on Iran may have broken international humanitarian law, citing the killing of civilians in an apartment block and three aid workers in the capital Tehran.
“Among those killed in Tehran were dozens of residents of an apartment complex and three humanitarian workers from the Iranian Red Cross, while damaged sites included a clinic for children with autism and a hospital in Kermanshah,” the investigative body said in a statement to journalists.
“This, and the reported lack of effective advance warning by Israel, which may affect the population’s ability to reach safety, raise serious concerns in relation to the principles of proportionality, distinction, and precaution under international humanitarian law.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi leaves after a meeting on Tehran’s nuclear program, with Germany’s Foreign Minister, France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Britain’s Foreign Secretary at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva on June 20, 2025 (Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says it will take time and assurances from the US before Tehran is ready to re-engage in talks on its nuclear program, insisting that the country will soon be ready to start enriching uranium again and “make up for lost time.”
“I don’t think negotiations will restart as quickly as that,” Araghchi is quoted telling CBS News through a translator, though he adds that diplomacy is not off the table.
“In order for us to decide to reengage, we will have to first ensure that America will not revert back to targeting us in a military attack during the negotiations,” Araghchi adds. “And I think with all these considerations, we still need more time.”
Speaking to a US outlet for the first time since Israel halted 12 days of bombings aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Araghchi claims that the campaign, which included destroying centrifuge facilities and assassinating nuclear scientists, did not achieve its goal.
“One cannot obliterate the technology and science for enrichment through bombings,” Araghchi says. “If there is this will on our part, and the will exists in order to once again make progress in this industry, we will be able to expeditiously repair the damages and make up for the lost time.”
He appears to indicate that the military conflict only hardened Iran’s resolve to continue enriching uranium.
Iran’s “peaceful nuclear program has turned into a matter of national pride and glory,” he says. “We have also gone through 12 days of imposed war, therefore, people will not easily back down from enrichment.”
Iran has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, but has long enriched uranium to levels that have no peaceful application, and according to Israel, had recently taken steps toward weaponization.
ISRAEL IRAN
British MPs Invite Deposed Shah’s Son To Promote Iran Regime Change In Parliament
The son of Iran’s ousted shah is giving an address to British MPs in the UK parliament on Monday, numerous sources within parliament and the Labor Party have told Middle East Eye.
According to an invitation to the event seen by MEE, Pahlavi is set to brief MPs and peers on “the ongoing situation in Iran and his plan for the collapse of the current regime and for a stable transition to a secular democracy”.
The event was set for 5pm in a committee room in parliament and is co-hosted by Labour MP Luke Akehurst and Conservative MP Aphra Brandreth.
Akehurst told MEE: “It is for the Iranian people to decide what type of government they want, but clearly MPs are going to be interested in hearing what different opposition voices have got to say about the future of such an important country.” MEE also contacted Brandreth for comment.
Referred to among his supporters as a “king in exile”, Reza Pahlavi, 64, is the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the late shah of Iran, who was toppled during the 1977-1979 popular uprising that led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic as we now know it.
Ali Milani, chair of the Labor Muslim Network, told MEE that the planned event in the UK parliament is a “slap in the face of every Iranian fighting for freedom and justice”.
Milani said that Pahlavi “has spent an entire career in exile refusing to condemn his father’s oppressive regime.”
He added: “Countless Iranians were disappeared, tortured and murdered at the hands of his father’s secret police, which he has never properly acknowledged. “Leadership for the people of Iran must come from Iranians themselves on the ground. They deserve real freedom and prosperity.”
As a staunch defender of a US-backed monarchy that he hopes to bring back to Iran, Pahlavi has made several visits to Israel, taken photographs with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and cast himself as the only viable leader of a modern Iran if the Islamic Republic collapses.
On June 16, during the recent hostilities between Israel and Iran, Pahlavi said that “the root cause of the problem has been the regime and its nature, and the only solution, ultimately, that will benefit both the Iranian people as well as the free world is for this regime to no longer be there”.
Responding to Pahlavi’s comments, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif made headlines by calling the shah’s son a “bloody parasitical imperial whore”.
“If Iranian people are energized and motivated according to you,” Asif said in a post on social media platform X, “show some balls and go back and lead them and remove the regime.”
‘Important message from Reza Pahlavi’
Labor MP Akehurst, who was first elected last July, described a June 14 video address by Pahlavi calling for regime change as an “important message from Reza Pahlavi about backing the Iranian people”.
In 2021, Akehurst was asked if he regarded the UN as antisemitic because the Security Council, of which Britain is a member, ruled that “Israel’s establishment of settlements in Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, had no legal validity”. Akehurst answered: “Yes.”
In November 2023, he said that the “major West Bank settlement blocks” should become part of Israel as part of a land exchange with Palestine, adding that he wants the Golan Heights “to remain part of Israel”.
The establishment and expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, according to a recent UN report, amount to a war crime. Before becoming an MP, Akehurst was also once photographed wearing a T-shirt describing himself as a “Zionist shitlord“.
END
ISRAEL IRAN/IRAQ/USA
LAST NIGHT!
who ordered this?
Did Iran order rocket, drone strikes on an Iraqi airport in Kirkuk? – analysis
A rare rocket attack targeted Kirkuk in northern Iraq, injuring one. Officials suspect militias or ISIS amid growing regional tensions.
Missiles are launched during a joint exercise called the ‘Great Prophet 17’, in the southwest of Iran, December 24, 2021. Picture taken December 24, 2021.(photo credit: SAEED SAJJADI/FARS NEWS/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)VIA REUTERS)BySETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 1, 2025 12:49Updated: JULY 1, 2025 14:40
Several rockets were fired at the Iraqi city of Kirkuk in the evening of June 30. This is a rare attack, and it was not clear who was responsible. In the past, Iranian-backed militias have used rockets to target the northern Iraqi Kurdistan autonomous region.
In addition, they have used rockets to target US forces in Iraq. In addition, there have been recent raids against ISIS in Kirkuk, meaning it is also plausible that ISIS could have carried out the attack.
The attack comes a week after drones targeted several sites in Iraq. The drones were likely launched by Iranian-backed militias. The drones targeted a radar site at Camp Taji north of Baghdad and also targeted a second radar site at the Imam Ali base near Nahariyah.
These are Iraqi army bases. The Taji base is a massive area, and the pinpoint targeting of the radar illustrates that this was likely an attack ordered by Iran.
Unused Katyusha rockets found by the Iraqi Army are seen in Umm al-Izam (credit: IRAQI MEDIA SECURITY CELL/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
The attack caused no casualties
The rocket fire is more mysterious. Rudaw media in Erbil noted that “at least three Katyusha rockets targeted the disputed northern city of Kirkuk and its airport late Monday, the governor said, injuring one person with investigations underway.”
The report said the rockets landed around 11:30 in the evening and they hit the Kirkuk International Airport. “We are waiting for the relevant authorities to carry out their work. [The attack] caused no casualties. Only material damage occurred to a house,” Kirkuk Governor Rebwar Taha told Rudaw.
According to the reports, air traffic continues at Kirkuk. “One rocket struck a residential house while the family was at home. Its owner told Rudaw that ‘we were sitting at home when a loud sound was heard. Thank God, there was no loss of life.’” Abdullah Mirwais, a member of the Kirkuk Provincial Council, told Rudaw it is not known who fired the rockets.
Kirkuk airport is also known as K-1 and is an airport and a historic air base. It used to have US personnel at the location. If the attack was carried out by Iranian-backed militias, then it fits the pattern of attacks on other Iraqi airports in the last week.
If it was carried out by ISIS, then it shows ISIS has acquired more rockets. The Katyusha-type rocket is common among Iranian militias. They often use the 107mm mass-produced rocket that can be easily fired from almost any homemade contraption.
Iraq will have to investigate and reveal more details. Unlike the precision drone strikes, the rocket attack on Kikruk appears less accurate. One rocket hit near a runway, and another hit a civilian neighborhood.
Kirkuk is a mixed city with Kurds, Turkmen, and Arabs. It is the center of a dispute between the Kurdistan region and Baghdad. The Kurds have long claimed Kirkuk as a city and region that should be part of the autonomous region of the Kurdistan Regional Government. During the ISIS war, Kurdish Peshmerga forces controlled Kirkuk from 2014 to 2017.
The Iraqis pushed the Kurdish fighters out in 2017 and expelled the governor and other Kurdish officials. The Iraqis ransacked Kurdish KDP party offices at the time. In recent years, there have been attempts at reconciliation. ISIS cells continue to operate near Kirkuk.
In addition, there have been recent raids on ISIS in the city. Iranian militias have made inroads near the city as well. There is a current dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region over energy contracts and salaries. It is not clear which dispute may be at the basis of the rocket attacks.
ISRAEL//USA
Netanyahu set to visit White House July 7 as US pushes for end to Gaza war
Prime minister holds second meeting on ceasefire in as many days, but disagreements remain; official says Israel trying to get US to press Qatar to finagle concessions from Hamas
US President Donald Trump, right, meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 7, 2025. (Saul Loeb / AFP)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will fly to to Washington early next week to meet with US President Donald Trump, a White House official confirmed to The Times of Israel Monday night, amid intensifying efforts by Washington to end the war in Gaza and free hostages held there for nearly two years.
The July 7 visit will mark Netanyahu’s third trip Trump to Washington to meet Trump since the US president returned to office in January 2025, and will come exactly two weeks after Israel and Iran agreed to a US-brokered halt to a 12-day air war that saw long simmering tensions between the arch foes explode into open conflict for the first time.
There was no confirmation from the Prime Minister’s Office regarding the timing for the visit, which was first reported by Axios.
A second US official told The Times of Israel that top issues on the agenda would be Gaza and Iran, stressing Trump’s desire to secure an end to the war in Gaza and a release of the remaining hostages. Syria will also be discussed, the US official added.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer is currently in Washington for meetings with US officials, where he is reportedly facing increased pressure to bring about an end to the 20-month-long war in the Palestinian enclave.
Netanyahu convened his top aides and ministers on Monday evening for a second meeting in as many nights regarding Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
The office of one of ministers involved told The Times of Israel that the group was still unable to come to an agreement on the future of the war in Gaza after coming to loggerheads the night before.
US President Donald Trump (left) welcomes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House in Washington on April 7, 2025. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP)
The premier will hold another meeting on the topic on Thursday, the source said on condition of anonymity.
Trump has been vocal in recent days regarding his desire for Israel to agree to a deal to end the war and bring home the 50 remaining hostages in Gaza, and raised expectations Friday with a prediction that a hostage-ceasefire deal could be inked within a week.
However Israel and the Hamas terror group remain far apart, as the two sides have stuck to their positions in negotiations with mediators.
Demonstrators protest for the release of hostages held by Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip, outside the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv, June 28, 2025. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)
Remaining sticking points between the sides include Hamas’s demand for a permanent end to the war — as opposed to Israel’s efforts to secure a temporary ceasefire that leaves open the option for it to resume fighting.
However, both Netanyahu and the top brass of the Israeli military have recently made statements suggesting Israel is getting closer to agreeing to end the war against Hamas.
An official in Netanyahu’s office said earlier that Dermer was in the US to “try to press the Americans to press the Qataris to press Hamas” for more concessions amid ongoing discussions for a ceasefire and hostage release deal.
“Qatar is the key,” the official added. “We are hoping that there will be a breakthrough very soon. It depends on Hamas.”
Protesters call for the release of Israelis held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at HaBima Square in Tel Aviv, June 26, 2025. (Itai Ron/Flash90)
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump and administration officials were in constant communication with Israeli leadership and bringing about an end to the Gaza conflict is a priority for the president.
“It’s heartbreaking to see the images that have come out from both Israel and Gaza throughout this war, and the president wants to see it end,” Leavitt said. “He wants to save lives.”
On Sunday, US official and an Arab diplomat familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel Sunday that Dermer would face pressure from the Trump administration to end the war in Gaza.
The official from Netanyahu’s office said Israel’s military was continuing to press its offensive in Gaza in the meantime. “We are continuing to progress and deepen the ground maneuver, to pressure Hamas until it agrees to a deal or until we defeat it,” the official said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits a Shin Bet facility, June 29, 2025. (Maayan Toaf/GPO)
On Sunday, Netanyahu said during a visit to a Shin Bet facility in southern Israel that, “First of all, [we need] to free the hostages. Of course, we will also have to solve the Gaza issue, to defeat Hamas, but I believe that we will achieve both tasks.”
His comments were broadly interpreted in local media as prioritizing a deal to return the 50 remaining captives in Gaza before all else, a sign of the mounting pressure from the Trump administration to wrap up the conflict that has continued since October 7, 2023.
At the same time, Netanyahu has faced demands from hawkish coalition partners that he push ahead with the military campaign, launched in Gaza following the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on southern Israel, in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told reporters ahead of his Religious Zionism party’s weekly faction meeting in the Knesset Monday that there is “no greater danger” for Israel than a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.
Palestinian women react amidst the rubble of Yaffa School in the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City following overnight Israeli strikes, on June 30, 2025. (Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)
“I call on the prime minister: No more dialogue with murderers,” Smotrich said, urging Netanyahu to push for a “sharp and swift war that will destroy the enemy in Gaza and remove the threat it poses to Israel for many years to come.”
Terror groups in the Gaza Strip are holding 50 hostages, including 49 abducted by Hamas-led terrorists on October 7, 2023. They include the bodies of at least 28 confirmed dead by the IDF. Twenty are believed to be alive and there are grave concerns for the well-being of two others, Israeli officials have said. Hamas is also holding the body of an IDF soldier killed in Gaza in 2014.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 56,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 20,000 combatants in battle as of January and another 1,600 terrorists inside Israel during the October 7 onslaught.
Touting wins in Iran
The second US official said Trump would also discuss Iran and Syria during the meeting with Netanyahu.
According to the official, the president planned to use the meeting to tout military achievements during the war against against Iran. Though primarily an Israeli-led offensive, the briefly joined on June 22 by attacking three Iranian nuclear sites, dropping massive ground-penetrating bombs on the hardened subterranean Fordo facility and firing missiles at the Natanz and Isfahan plants.
The Trump administration had initially distanced itself from Israel’s June 13 surprise attack on Iran, launched to dismantle the country’s nuclear program and ballistic missile infrastructure, despite Israeli lobbying for US help in destroying Fordo, which Israeli bombs could not reach, and other sites.
Trump’s decision to deploy military forces only came after several days in which he appeared to vacillate on the issue, with much of his voter base opposed to the possibility of a fresh military entanglement in the Middle East.
Trump has claimed that the US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but other US officials have offered more measured assessments amid lingering questions over how badly the program was damaged and the effectiveness of the bombing campaign.
Israeli Air Force F-15 fighter jets fly over Israel en route to carry out strikes in Iran, in a handout photo published on June 25, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israel said its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites, and ballistic missile program was necessary to prevent the Islamic Republic from realizing its avowed plan to destroy the Jewish state.
Iran has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. However, it enriched uranium to levels that have no peaceful application, obstructed international inspectors from checking its nuclear facilities, and expanded its ballistic missile capabilities. Israel said it had recently taken steps toward weaponization.
The official said Syria will also be discussed, as the Trump administration seeks to facilitate a gradual warming of ties between Damascus and Jerusalem.
While Washington wants Syria to join the Abraham Accords, it recognizes that it will take more time, the official said.
Trump signed an executive order on Monday ending US sanctions on Syria, following through on his promise to do so.
A cropped handout picture provided by the Saudi Royal Palace shows US President Donald Trump (R) shaking hands with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) in Riyadh on May 14, 2025. (Bandar AL-JALOUD / Saudi Royal Palace / AFP)
Leavitt said the move was designed to “promote and support the country’s path to stability and peace.” Sanctions will remain in place on ousted former President Bashar al-Assad, his top aides and family.
Along with the lifting of economic sanctions, Monday’s executive order lifts the national emergency outlined in an executive order issued by former President George W. Bush in response to Syria’s occupation of Lebanon and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, Treasury officials said. Five other previous executive orders related to Syria were also lifted.
Still, some restrictions remain in place. The US still designates Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism and the group led by al-Sharaa as a foreign terrorist organization.
A State Department official said the department is reviewing those designations.
END
Trump expects to have Gaza ceasefire deal by next week, says Netanyahu wants to end war
The Jerusalem Post previously reported that Netanyahu would visit Washington next Monday, and that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer would arrive earlier.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands during a meeting in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, US, April 7, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN MOHATT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF, AMICHAI STEIN, REUTERSJULY 1, 2025 12:51Updated: JULY 1, 2025 18:56
US President Donald Trump told reporters that he expects to have a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by next week when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the US.
In his comments to reporters, Trump noted that Netanyahu also wanted to end the war in Gaza, and that he planned to be “very firm with Netanyahu” on ending the Israel-Hamas War.
This comes after Netanyahu on Tuesday confirmed that he would travel to the US next week to meet US President Donald Trump and other senior officials.
The Jerusalem Post previously reported that Netanyahu would visit Washington next Monday, and that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer would arrive earlier.
Netanyahu said that he would meet officials to discuss security-related matters and trade agreements.
“I’m expected to travel to the United States next week for meetings with US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the President’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and the Secretary of Commerce,” Netanyahu said during a cabinet meeting.
Awaiting Dermer’s meetings in Washington prior to considering steps in Gaza
On Monday, the cabinet held a discussion and will wait to hear about Dermer’s meetings in Washington before considering additional significant steps in Gaza.
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump walks ahead as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the White House last month. The American president has, for now, chosen to sideline Israel and its considerations in his foreign policy, the writer maintains. (credit: LEAH MILLIS/REUTERS)
Dermer, a confidant of Netanyahu, is in Washington to meet with White House officials, Trump’s spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a press briefing on Monday.
Dermer would be exploring possibilities of regional diplomatic deals in the wake of Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last month, as well as ending the Gaza war, according to an Israeli official.
Settling tariff issue
Trump said last week that his administration would send letters to a number of countries notifying them of their higher tariff rates before July 9, when the duties are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to a range of between 11% and 50% announced on April 2 and subsequently suspended.
The US initially set a 17% tariff on Israeli goods sold in the US.
“We still have a few things to finalize in order to reach a trade agreement in addition to other matters,” Netanyahu said, referring to Trump’s tariff plans. “I’ll also have meetings with congressional and Senate leaders and some security meetings.”
ISRAEL HAMAS
HEZBOLLAH
Israeli drone reportedly strikes terror target in southern Lebanon, Katz condemns attacks on IDF
IDF troops from the Givati Brigade operating in Jabaliya.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
People drive on a street past portraits of slain Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and buildings damaged in Israeli strikes in the recent war, amid the first round of municipal elections, in the Ghobeiry neighbourhood of Beirut’s southern suburb on May 4, 2025. (ANWAR AMRO / AFP)
Lebanese officials are drafting a response to US demands for Hezbollah to relinquish its weapons across the country by November in exchange for a halt to IDF operations there, say two sources briefed on the matter.
The deadline has turned up the heat on the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group, which was struck hard by Israel during last year’s war, is suffering a financial crunch, and faces pressure in Lebanon to disarm.
Washington’s demands were conveyed by Thomas Barrack, US special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, during a trip to Beirut on June 19.
The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, tell Reuters Barrack had shared a written roadmap with Lebanese officials and told them he expected to hear back by July 1 (today) on any proposed amendments.
The six-page document centers on the disarmament of Hezbollah and other terror groups, and urges Lebanon to improve ties with neighboring Syria and implement financial reforms, they say.
They say Barrack had urged Lebanese officials to seize the opportunity laid out in the roadmap as it “may not come up again.” He is set to return to Lebanon next week.
Barrack had not yet gotten Israeli approval for the roadmap, the sources say. There was no immediate response from the US State Department, Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office, or Israel’s Foreign Ministry to Reuters requests for comment.
WEST BANK/TIMES OF ISRAEL/EDITORIAL
The growing cancer of lawbreakers in West Bank must be cut out, before its too late – editorial
The focus of our security forces has rightfully been on the survival of the Jewish state, as the country has fought enemies on seven fronts. But the enemy from within needs to be addressed now.
A Palestinian man stands next to a burnt car after an attack by Israeli settlers in Kafr Malik, in the West Bank, June 26, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ammar Awad TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)ByJPOST EDITORIALJULY 1, 2025 06:00
Overlooked during the last 20 months amid the hyperfocus on the Israel-Hamas War and the plight of hostages – and then the lightning war with Iran – has been the issue of the seemingly unharnessed aggression by certain Jewish residents of Samaria against Palestinians.
It can’t be ignored – or swept under the rug – any longer.
Army Radio reported on Sunday that, according to Defense Ministry figures, Jewish nationalist attacks in the West Bank rose 30% this year, from 318 in the first half of 2024 to 414 during the same period in 2025.
The Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob wrote on Sunday that while the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) are trying to prevent extremist Jewish violence in the West Bank against the Palestinians, it seems that the impact of a variety of policy shifts initiated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government (and spearheaded by its most extreme elements, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich) have made their job more difficult and encouraged some of those violent actors to be more brazen.
These fringe elements within the Jewish population of Judea and Samaria are not just terrorizing Palestinians – itself an affront – but they have no qualms about directing their violence against their fellow Israelis serving in the IDF.
Israeli security forces guard as Jews tour in the West Bank city of Hebron, June 28, 2025 (credit: WISAM HASHLAMOUN/FLASH90)
In the latest affront, settlers reportedly vandalized and set fire to a West Bank military facility on Sunday night.
A KAN News report noted that millions of shekels had been invested in the facility to defend Jewish residents of the West Bank. This included cameras and systems to monitor and thwart terrorism in the area.
“The rioters who set fire to a security-operational facility tonight must be punished to the fullest extent of the law,” MK Avigdor Liberman, Yisrael Beytenu head and a former defense minister, wrote on X/Twitter on Monday morning.
“Any harm to IDF soldiers is a severe blow to the State of Israel and its values. I call on the law enforcement authorities to act decisively and to bring those responsible for these despicable acts to justice,” he added.
Multiple attacks in recent days
The arson was only the latest of an avalanche of attacks in recent days by renegade settlers against Palestinians and the IDF.
It stems from the inability or unwillingness of the government to order the army and security services to deal with the issue from the roots.
It’s ironic that while these wanton lawbreakers are doing everything they can to tear down societal norms and blacken the name of Israelis, the vast majority of Jewish residents of the territories are exemplary citizens, eager to live in peace with their Palestinian neighbors.
All Israelis should embrace the communities – from Gush Etzion and Ma’aleh Adumim to Ariel and Ofra – that represent an unshakeable Jewish presence in Judea and Samaria. Its residents have done their share and more, valiantly serving in the IDF for far too long since October 7 and defending our country along with soldiers inside the Green Line.
When you’re on the battlefield, it doesn’t matter where you’re from; you share a common goal. And they’ve suffered equally, if not more, losing dozens of soldiers in the war and seeing far more come home with debilitating injuries.
They represent the true spirit and values of the settler movement, not the outliers who use fear and violence to stake their claim to a land that must ultimately be shared.
The focus of our security forces has rightfully been on the survival of the Jewish state, as the country has fought enemies on seven fronts. But the enemy from within needs to be addressed now. As the Post’s Bob wrote, this enemy is growing, as evidenced by the dozens who clashed with the IDF this past weekend.
The reports that a police special task force will be established to cooperate with the IDF and Shin Bet to locate far-right rioters in the West Bank are a welcome decision. N12 reported that Israel Police Commissioner Daniel Levi instructed that all means and capabilities should be used to catch the rioters.
The lawbreakers among those who live in Judea and Samaria are a small but growing cancer that needs to be cut out before they’re allowed to multiply. It’s not an issue of Left and Right; it’s one of right and wrong.
Katz announces task force, social programs aimed at curbing settler violence toward Israeli troops
A West Bank security installation that was torched overnight by settlers on June 30, 2025 (Israel Defense Forces)
Following an emergency meeting with top security officials last night, Defense Minister Israel Katz announces a series of measures aimed at curbing settler violence against Israeli troops and security forces in the West Bank.
“We will not allow or accept such serious incidents in any form,” Katz said in the meeting, according to a Defense Ministry statement, vowing significant police enforcement and the creation of a joint task force led by the police in coordination with the IDF and Shin Bet to address the phenomenon.
The meeting came after a string of recent attacks by Jewish extremists, including a riot outside an army base and the arson of a nearby security installation. Senior IDF and police commanders, Shin Bet officials, and the Defense Ministry’s legal adviser attended the session.
While participants stressed that the majority of settlers and youth are not involved in such violence, they warned of a radical fringe deliberately targeting security forces and Palestinians, the statement says.
Katz also approved tens of millions of shekels for social programs aimed at integrating extremist settler activists into normative educational frameworks and said a follow-up meeting would be held in three weeks to assess progress.
RUSSIA VS SERBIA
Looks like a revolution is underway:
(zerohedge)
Kremlin Warns West Against Backing ‘Color Revolution’ in Serbia As Protests Grow
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 04:15 AM
This weekend saw ongoing protests in the streets of Serbia’s capital Belgrade explode, resulting in clashes with police which included tear gas, batons, and riot control measures deployed against angry crowds which at times hurled flares and bottles.
The demonstrators, which various media reports have estimated reached at least 140,000 people in the city center, are demanding early elections and an end to President Aleksandar Vučić’s 12-year rule. His second term ends in 2027, at which point parliamentary elections are also scheduled.
Vucic’s opponents accuse him and his allies of deep corruption which includes ties to organize crime, resulting in violence against rivals – and in the process greater government control of the media.
The Serbian leader, who maintains warm ties with Russia, says “They wanted to topple Serbia, and they have failed” – according to recent words on his Instagram page.
The growing protests have resulted in the Kremlin weighing in, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying Monday that Western countries must not back a “color revolution” in the Balkan state.
“We hope Western countries, which often exploit domestic affairs in other states to advance their interests, will refrain from color revolutions this time,” Lavrov said, as cited in TASS.
“We are monitoring the situation. We support calming the unrest, as Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said, in line with the constitution and laws of this friendly state,” he added.
At the same time, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “We cannot rule out the possibility that well-known tactics employed for carrying out color revolutions are now being used in Serbia.”
Serbia, notably, is heavily dependent on Russian gas and has long been an Orthodox Christian-majority Slavic ally of Moscow, particularly going back to the 1999 US-NATO bombing of Belgrade.
While the protests have been raging for months, they are clearly getting bigger, as over the weekend local media says 48 police officers were injured
BREAKING: Chaos erupts in the streets of Belgrade (Serbia).
Riot police have fired tear gas as protesters that demand early elections from the pro-EU government. pic.twitter.com/zaYJN3h930
Many dozens of people were arrested, with at least eight protesters currently facing charges related to plans to block roads and attack government facilities.
The initial anti-government protests were ignited over six months ago, in the wake the deadly collapse of a train station roof in Novi Sad in November – a tragedy which many attribute to systemic corruption.
Serbia remains another one of those East-West fault line countries in which Europe and NATO would like to see a government which moves away from generally warm relations with Russia’s Putin. By and large the population is still anti-NATO, given their memories of the brutal bombing campaign of 1999 led by US warplanes under Clinton.
end
RUSSIA/TURMEKISTAN/USA
US And Russia Vie For Influence In Energy-Rich Turmenistan
Turkmenistan has recently experienced a significant increase in diplomatic attention from both the United States and Russia, suggesting an intensifying geopolitical struggle for influence in the Central Asian nation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Ashgabat to strengthen economic, cultural, and political ties, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau held separate phone conversations with the Turkmen Foreign Minister to discuss cooperation and expanding economic ties.
Moscow appears concerned by Washington’s growing engagement with Turkmenistan, with Russian media even speculating that a new airport in Jebel could serve American military interests.
Turkmenistan has attracted lots of diplomatic attention this week from both the United States and Russia. The flurry of activity suggests geopolitical jostling is intensifying over the Central Asian state, apparently catalyzed by the recent Iranian-Israeli conflict.
Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov capped a hectic week with a June 26 phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the Trend news agency reported, adding that the topic of Iran’s clash with Israel came up during the discussion.
On June 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov concluded a two-day visit to the Turkmen capital Ashgabat. Bilateral economic ties topped the Russian agenda, but it also appeared that the Kremlin is keen to retain its cultural and political influence in the country.
In a speech in Ashgabat, for example, Lavrov announced plans to open a Russian-TurkmenUniversity.
“We pay great attention to youth exchanges. We propose to expand productive interaction,” Lavrov said, according to a transcript released by the Russian Foreign Ministry. He added that Russia intends “to develop ties between young international relations specialists of the two countries with the assistance of the Council of Young Diplomats of our Foreign Ministry.”
Lavrov offered a contradictory view of the United States in his speech, condemning the Trump administration’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities while later commending it for demonstrating “realism and common sense,” as opposed to the previous Biden administration’s “conceptual vision of world development that was completely absorbed by its neoliberal hegemonic plans.”
The day of Lavrov’s arrival in Ashgabat, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a telephone conversation with Meredov, a noteworthy development considering only about 48 hours before that Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau had a chat with the Turkmen foreign minister.
Ostensibly, Rubio thanked the Turkmen government for allowing US citizens to leave Iran via Turkmenistan during the Iranian-Israeli conflict. But a State Department summary of the conversation also noted that the United States “looks forward to further partnership with Turkmenistan, including expanding economic and commercial ties.”
Turkmenistan over the past year has taken tentative steps to open up trade connections with the West, underscored by the launch in March of a first-ever swap deal involving Turkey and Iran facilitating the export natural gas to the European Union.
It seems clear that officials in Moscow are unnerved that Washington seems to be making inroads with the energy-rich country sitting on Iran’s northern border. An analysis article published June 23 by Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted that an airport with a long runway opened in May in the remote Turkmen town of Jebel not far from the Caspian Sea, hinting that the facility may prove useful to the American military.
“The location of the airport, built on the site of a former military airfield of the USSR, with a runway of 3,200 meters and full navigational infrastructure, is quite suitable … as a staging base or for emergency landings of military aircraft during operations against a nearby country,” the commentary stated.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia Masses 50,000 Troops Around Sumy In Effort To Overwhelm By Sheer Numbers
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 02:45 AM
The Wall Street Journal on Sunday covered the ongoing advance of Russian forces beyond and west of Donetsk, describing that troops are now within 12 miles of the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy.
“Having almost entirely ejected Ukrainian forces from the Russian Kursk region earlier this year, Russian forces have now poured over the border in the opposite direction toward Sumy,” the report describes. “With 50,000 troops in the area, they outnumber the Ukrainians roughly 3-to-1, according to soldiers fighting there.”
It should come as no surprise to longtime observers of the war that Moscow taking a slow victory by attrition approach and exhausting the abilities of the other side.
A Ukrainian top military commander has said of the Russians that “Their main strategy is to “wear us down with their numbers.” This also goes for Russia’s superior artillery supply, which earlier in the war was said to outpace Ukraine’s quantity of shells by ten to one.
The WSJ says Ukraine has deployed the “Timur” Special Forces Unit to positions near Sumy in a desperate effort to slow the Russian advance.
One Ukrainian unit commander conceded in a statement to the publication that “numbers are a big problem for us, though not enough to overrun us.” It remains that “The enemy is losing 300 to 400 people per day across the region,” he said. “But they can deal with that level of casualties…They keep bringing in reserves.”
Ukrainian officials believe in Sumy oblast Russia is mainly reliant on poorly trained, large groups of “meat assaults” which seek to simply overwhelm the Ukrainian side.
However, there have been mixed and contradictory reports from the front lines. Ukrainian commanders at the end of last week claimed to have halted Russia’s advance into Sumy.
The Associated Press has pointed out that the Russian incursion into Sumy was made possible after Kursk was regained:
In March, Ukrainian forces withdrew from much of Russia’s neighboring Kursk region, parts of which they had controlled after a surprise cross-border attack in August.
That retreat enabled Russia to launch a counteroffensive that advanced between 2-12 kilometers (1-7 miles) into Ukrainian territory, according to different estimates.
And the fresh WSJ reporting links the situation poor defenses outside of Sumy with risking too much on Zelensky’s Kurk invasion gambit:
During the half-year that Ukraine held territory in Russia’s Kursk region, soldiers who fought there said they assumed the military would be preparing strong defensive positions on the Ukrainian side of the border. Instead, after a chaotic and costly retreat from Kursk, they found outdated trenches, with no overhead cover from drones. The soldiers are now digging their own positions under drone fire in some cases.
Starting in late May, Russian forces took control of the border villages of Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka, Hryhorov just inside Sumy Oblast as part of work on Putin’s declared buffer zone plan.
Fresh footage over Sumy via Russian state media:
💥RUSSIAN STRIKES DESTROY UKRAINIAN MILITARY BASE "Geran" drones hit hard in Sumy region—Ukrainian military positions and drone storage wiped out near the town of Konotop. pic.twitter.com/JU6TA3q8aj
As for the city of Sumy, it lies just 18 miles from the Russian border and has suffered from intermittent aerial attacks and shelling since the war’s start. The Russian troop surge greatly expands what both sides consider to be the front lines of fighting.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
WOW!!
$15 Billion!? FBI Says It’s Uncovered ‘Largest Health Care Fraud’ In American History
The FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) on June 30 said that almost $15 billion was reported in losses in the “largest health care fraud” investigation in U.S. history, with officials charging more than 300 people in connection with the alleged scheme.
In a post on social media platform X, FBI Director Kash Patel wrote that $14.6 billion in losses were incurred, while $245 million was seized, as FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino said in a separate post on X that hundreds of people were charged in the case.
$245 million seized, hundreds of defendants and medical professionals charged, and $15 billion in losses prevented in the largest coordinated healthcare fraud takedown in history. Well done to all state and federal partners who pushed this. https://t.co/ZlFPU6CsK3
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) June 30, 2025
“Public corruption will not be tolerated as the Director and I vigorously pursue bad actors who violated their oaths to all of us,” Bongino said, describing the case as the “largest healthcare fraud investigation” in the country’s history.
The investigation encompassed 50 federal districts and 12 state attorneys general, according to the DOJ. State and federal law enforcement agencies also took part, according to the FBI.
A statement issued by the DOJ said that criminal charges were filed against 324 defendants, including 96 doctors, nurse practitioners, pharmacists, and other health care workers across the United States. Officials said that 29 defendants were charged with partaking in transnational criminal groups who allegedly submitted around $12 billion in fraudulent health-related claims to U.S. health insurance companies.
Further, four defendants were apprehended in Estonia based on cooperation with law enforcement agencies in that country, while seven others were arrested at the U.S.–Mexico border or at American airports, the DOJ said.
That organization, federal prosecutors said, is accused of using individuals sent into the United States from other countries to purchase “dozens of medical supply companies located across the United States” before submitting $10.6 billion in fraudulent health care claims to Medicare for medical devices and equipment.
At the same time, that group allegedly exploited stolen identities from U.S. citizens across all 50 states, using their stolen medical information to submit the false claims, according to the DOJ.
In another action announced by the DOJ, federal officials said they filed charges in Illinois against five people, including the owners of two Pakistan-based marketing companies, in relation to a $703 million Medicare fraud scheme.
The defendants allegedly stole Medicare beneficiaries’ confidential information and sold it to laboratories and other medical companies, which then submitted false Medicare claims, according to the statement.
“The defendants allegedly used artificial intelligence to create fake recordings of Medicare beneficiaries purportedly consenting to receive certain products,” the DOJ’s statement said.
The results of the operation on June 30 come as federal prosecutors and the FBI have increasingly targeted health care fraud and related schemes.
In 2024, officials with the DOJ charged 193 people, including 76 doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals, with participating in health care fraud schemes worth $2.75 billion.
In that case, the defendants were accused of illegally distributing millions of pills of the stimulant Adderall and of conducting fraudulent schemes involving $176 million of drug and alcohol abuse treatment services. One defendant allegedly billed the federal Medicaid program for treatment that was either inadequate or nonexistent, prosecutors said at the time.
And in 2023, the DOJ announced federal criminal charges targeting 78 defendants across 16 states as part of a law enforcement action involving $2.5 billion in alleged health care fraud schemes targeting elderly and disabled people, HIV patients, and pregnant women.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
RFK Jr. Unloads Disturbing Vaccine Secrets On Tucker… And Surprises Everyone On Trump
It’s not every day an active HHS Secretary sits down for 90 minutes straight with Tucker Carlson.
But that’s exactly what happened, and Kennedy instantly seized Carlson’s attention with a chilling story of CDC corruption.
He revealed that the health agency buried a 1999 internal study led by researcher Thomas Verstraten, which showed an alarming 1135% increase in autism risk from the hepatitis B vaccine.
Kennedy said the researchers were “shocked” by the findings.
So what did they do? They covered it up, according to Kennedy.
“They got rid of all the older children essentially and just had younger children who are too young to be diagnosed [with autism].”
It’s not every day an active HHS Secretary sits down for 90 minutes straight with Tucker Carlson.
But that’s exactly what happened, and Kennedy instantly seized Carlson’s attention with a chilling story of CDC corruption.
RFK Jr. then explained the real reason why your pediatrician will kick you out of their practice for refusing vaccines.
“There’s a published article out there now that says that 50% of revenues to most pediatricians come from vaccines.”
It’s all about the money. The higher the vaccination rate, the bigger the bonus.
“And that’s why your pediatrician, if you say I want to go slow on the vaccines… will throw you out of his practice because you’re now jeopardizing that bonus structure.”
RFK Jr. then explained the real reason why your pediatrician will kick you out of their practice for refusing vaccines.
“There’s a published article out there now that says that 50% of revenues to most pediatricians come from vaccines.”
To the claim that the vaccine–autism link has been “debunked,” Kennedy had a message for Anderson Cooper, Jake Tapper, and everyone who smugly insists on it.
“None of the vaccines given to children in the first six months of life have ever been studied for autism.”
Let that sink in.
He went further, revealing that the CDC actually did find a link when they studied the DTaP vaccine.
But they dismissed it. Kennedy said they claimed it “didn’t count” because the data came from VAERS—the very system they use to track vaccine injuries.
So when the evidence pointed to harm, they simply claimed their own system wasn’t reliable enough and took no steps to fix it.
To the claim that the vaccine–autism link has been “debunked,” Kennedy had a message for Anderson Cooper, Jake Tapper, and everyone who smugly insists on it.
“None of the vaccines given to children in the first six months of life have ever been studied for autism.”
The vaccine corruption didn’t end there. Kennedy attested that the CDC killed off a vaccine injury reporting system that actually worked—because it worked too well.
It showed that 1 in 37 vaccines caused an injury.
Tucker was stunned.
“Of all vaccines?” he asked.
“Yeah,” Kennedy confirmed.
The vaccine corruption didn’t end there.
Kennedy attested that the CDC killed off a vaccine injury reporting system that actually worked—because it worked too well.
So what did the CDC do? They shut it down in 2010. And they’re still using VAERS today—even though it’s a completely inadequate system.
But Kennedy didn’t stop at old vaccine scandals. He also broke down Pfizer’s own COVID vaccine trial data. That trial showed a 23% higher death rate in the vaccinated group.
Pfizer gave 21,720 people the vaccine and 21,728 the placebo.
One vaccinated person died of COVID. Two placebo recipients died. They used this tiny difference to claim “100% effective” based on relative risk reduction.
But in absolute terms, it took 22,000 vaccinations to save one life.
Over six months, 21 vaccinated participants died of all causes, compared to 17 in the placebo group—a 23.5% higher death rate.
And then there’s vaccine spokesperson Paul Offit, often seen on CNN and other mainstream networks.
Kennedy shared an infuriating story about how he literally “voted himself rich” on the rotavirus vaccine.
While serving on the CDC’s ACIP committee, Offit voted to add rotavirus vaccination to the childhood schedule—even as he was developing his own competing vaccine. He guaranteed demand for his product.
The first approved rotavirus vaccine, RotaShield, was yanked from the market for causing dangerous intussusception. Offit’s vaccine, RotaTeq, eventually replaced it.
He and his partners later sold their rights to Merck for $186 million. As RFK Jr. said, Offit literally “voted himself rich.”
When Carlson mentioned Fauci, Kennedy revealed how Fauci funded research that helped scientists hide evidence of lab-made viruses.
The technique, called “seamless ligation,” allowed researchers to engineer viruses in a lab without leaving telltale genetic fingerprints.
RFK Jr. explained:
“One of his fundees, Ralph Baric, from the University of North Carolina, developed a technique called the seamless ligation technique, which is a technique for hiding the laboratory origins of a manipulated virus.”
“… normally if there’s a virus manipulated, researchers can look at the DNA sequences and they can say this thing was created in a lab. Ralph Baric had developed a technique that he called the no-see technique and its technical name was seamless ligation, and it was a way of hiding evidence of human tampering.”
He called it the exact opposite of what real public health work should be. Carlson cut in, saying, “That’s what you would do if you’re creating viruses for biological warfare.”
The conversation shifted to Trump, leading to one of the biggest highlights of the entire interview.
First, Kennedy explained that Trump chose his cabinet in an unorthodox way: he wanted to see three clips of each candidate performing on TV before considering them for the job.
“One of the things with President Trump is that he really knows how to pick talent… For every one of the positions that he picked, he wanted to see three clips of them performing on TV. He’s very conscious of the fact that these people are going to be out selling his program to the public,” Kennedy said.
That’s when Kennedy ended the interview with a bang, sharing his genuine thoughts about Trump for three straight minutes. It was one of the standout moments of the entire conversation.
If you’re on the fence about Trump, listen to Kennedy here. It might just change how you see him.
“I had him pegged as a narcissist, when narcissists are incapable of empathy. And he’s one of the most empathetic people that I’ve met,” Kennedy said.
“He’s immensely curious, inquisitive, and immensely knowledgeable. He’s encyclopedic in certain areas that you wouldn’t expect,” he continued.
Kennedy added that Trump genuinely cares about soldiers who go to war, citing how Trump “always talks about the casualties on both sides” of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
“Whether it’s vaccines or Medicaid or Medicare, he’s always thinking about how this impacts the little guy. And the Democrats have him pegged as a guy who’s sort of sitting in the Cabinet meeting talking about how can we make billionaires richer. He’s the opposite of that. He’s a genuine populist,” Kennedy said.
Here’s the clip. Trust me, watching this is better than reading it.
There’s so much more in this conversation, and it might change the way you think about vaccines forever. For the full picture, watch the entire interview below.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
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NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MIKE EVERY/OR PICTON OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS//GLOBAL/ENERGY/
Canada’s first cargo of LNG sets sail for buyers in Asia | Financial Post
ROBERT H…
Carney takes credit for what was 15 years in the making. Some one should explain that there is sufficient gas in the South China Sea to make this a one trick pony
Canada’s historic first cargo of LNG sets sail for buyers in Asia
GasLog Glasgow, a vessel chartered by Shell, is expected to deliver liquefied natural gas to Asia in coming days
The GasLog Glasgow at LNG Canada’s berth in Kitimat, B.C. Photo by Handout/LNG Canada
The inaugural cargo comes nearly 15 years after the first application for a licence to export LNG from the West Coast was submitted to federal regulators. Since that time, more than a dozen LNG projects aiming to capitalize on Canada’s shorter shipping distances to Asia and abundant supply of natural gas have come and gone amid political flare-ups over pipelines, tightening environmental standards and shifting global market dynamics.
Energy producers in Western Canada and their investors have waited impatiently for LNG Canada’s startup, hoping to see a boost in returns as growing volumes of gas begin making their way to Canada’s West Coast for export — something akin to the uplift in Canadian crude prices that followed the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) project — but so far experts say there are few signs that the newly commissioned facility is having a material impact on markets.
Prices for Western Canada’s natural gas, which trade at a discount to Henry Hub, have been hit hard by a combination of high storage inventories and pipeline flow restrictions that kept the average cash price for AECO, Canada’s primary gas price benchmark, below $1/MMBtu in June.
“We’re dealing with a market that’s extremely oversaturated and there’s lots of gas available,” Archer said. “Similar to TMX, we do anticipate that there’ll be an impact (from LNG Canada) on prices, but we’re not seeing it yet and we expect it’ll probably take a little bit of time to happen.”
Despite the near-term price doldrums, Canada’s energy sector has been buoyed by growing anticipation of a structural increase in demand for natural gas across North America, driven by U.S. LNG export capacity nearly doubling by the end of the decade to between 24 and 26 Bcf/d.
Canada’s nascent LNG industry could also grow substantially by the end of the decade, from the roughly 2.5 Bcf/d currently under construction or operating, to more than 6 bcf/d if existing projects proceed as planned — including a Phase 2 expansion of LNG Canada which would double the facility’s capacity to 28 mtpa.
“We expect natural gas prices to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year, and as Canada increases its LNG capacity, we think the current discount on Canadian natural gas should fall from about $2 today, to between $1.10 to $1.30,” Toronto-based investment firm Ninepoint Partners LP wrote in its 2025 mid-year outlook published last week.
LNG Canada’s joint-owners — Shell, Malaysian energy giant Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Corp. and Kogas — are currently deciding whether to green-light Phase 2 and Cooper said the partners are closely watching the facility’s startup.
“We just want to see all that working: the supply chain, the logistics and how all that works,” Cooper said, adding that the partners will be weighing the cost of expanding the project and the competitiveness of Canadian LNG, as well as other considerations around Canada’s policy environment, concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and input from stakeholders.
“So you’ve got one bit, which is (getting) Phase 1 working, and the second bit, which is actually proofing out the economic proposition for Phase 2,” he said.
A report earlier in June that Petronas was exploring the sale of its Canadian assets — a claim the company has since emphatically denied — may have reignited long-standing concerns in Canada’s energy sector over the potential flight of global investment. But Cooper said all five joint-venture partners in LNG Canada remain “very interested” in the project’s expansion.
“We continue to work with our five joint venture partners who invested in Phase 1 and we don’t see that changing at the minute.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday that Canada “has what the world needs” in a statement responding to news of the first cargo’s departure.
“With LNG Canada’s first shipment to Asia, Canada is exporting its energy to reliable partners, diversifying trade, and reducing global emissions — all in partnership with Indigenous Peoples,” he said. “By turning aspiration into action, Canada can become the world’s leading energy superpower with the strongest economy in the G7.”
Iraq exported nearly 7 million barrels of crude to the U.S. in May, surpassing all other OPEC members.
The surge in Iraqi shipments meets U.S. demand for heavier Middle Eastern crude grades amid OPEC+ output cuts.
Rising oil exports provide vital fiscal support for Iraq, where crude sales generate about 90% of government revenue.
OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, was the single biggest supplier of crude from the cartel to the United States in May, per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cited by Iraqi media outlets Shafaq News and IraqiNews.
Iraq ranked first among the 12 OPEC producers in terms of exports to the United States in May. Shipments totaled nearly 7 million barrels of crude, 6.95 million barrels to be precise.
The second-largest OPEC supplier to the U.S. was Nigeria with 6.803 million barrels of crude oil exports, followed by Saudi Arabia with 6.208 million barrels of crude.
Iraq has boosted exports in recent years, including to the United States, as it hasn’t adhered to its supply quota under the OPEC+ agreements.
Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have been overproducing above targets for years.
But in May, Iraq cut its crude oil production by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.93 million bpd, compared to its target of 4.049 million bpd, according to the latest OPEC data from secondary sources.
Iraq is compensating for previous overproduction as it has been one of the main overproducers in the OPEC+ deal for years, alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact.
Last month, estimates put Iraq’s crude oil exports to the United States surging past 5 million barrels in May, marking Baghdad’s highest monthly volume to U.S. refiners so far this year.
The surge reflects sustained U.S. appetite for heavier Middle Eastern grades, with Iraqi crude averaging between 160,000 bpd and 190,000 bpd in May.
As OPEC+ maintains voluntary output curbs and U.S. shale growth moderates, Iraq has solidified its position among Washington’s top five crude suppliers.
Iraq’s export increase also provides critical fiscal relief for Baghdad, with crude sales accounting for roughly 90% of Iraq’s state revenue.
Recent price support near $80 per barrel has further underpinned Iraq’s monthly revenues, helping finance public sector wages and infrastructure projects.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
EURO/USA: 1.1809 UP 0.0023 PTS OR 23 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 142.98 DOWN 0.815 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3747 UP .0016 OR 16 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3623 UP 0.0018(CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 13.32 PTS OR 0.39%
Hang Seng CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.32 PTS OR 0.39%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 501.06 PTS OR 0,87%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3352.30
silver:$36.42
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.20 DOWN 29 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.023% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.394% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS AND 40/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.205 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.461 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.562 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1807 UP 0.0020 OR 20 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.08 DOWN .724 OR YEN IS UP 72 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.433 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0023 OR 23 BASIS pts to 1.3629
A quick glimpse at the broad market today and you could be forgiven for thinking ‘meh’ as its a low liquidity holiday-shortened week (admittedly with some sizable event risk).
‘Uncertainty’ continues to tumble…
Source: Bloomberg
But, the S&P’s vol term structure is ready for ‘some’ fireworks on Thursday (NFP)…
Source: Bloomberg
However, there were some “violent moves” under the surface, according to Goldman’s trading desk.
The divergence between Small Caps (outperforming) and Nasdaq (lagging) is significant. Late in the day, this HL: “TRUMP: NOT THINKING ABOUT EXTENDING TARIFF PAUSE PAST JULY 9“ dragged all the majors lower…
In fact this was the biggest relative underperformance (NDX/RTY) since Nov 6th (election day)…
Source: Bloomberg
A look under the hood explains why as there has been a massive momentum unwind today – the biggest move since January’s DeepSeek dump (with the long leg selling off and short leg squeezing)…
Source: Bloomberg
There is a significant selloff in the AI trade whilst laggards like Tariff Losers and Housing jump higher…
Source: Bloomberg
No clear catalyst for the big move in Momo but Goldman’s trading desk think it’s a combo of:
1) Start of a new quarter (new ideas, reversions play, reluctance to sell YTD winners until after Q2)
2) Powell comments (not necessarily new… wait and see, expect higher inflation, but wouldn’t take July cut or any meeting off the table)
3) Profit taking ahead of NFP – (GS +85k, consensus +113k, last +139k)
Sparking more pain, we saw yet another massive short-squeeze as the BTFD swings are becoming wild…
Source: Bloomberg
While the S&P ended around unchanged, Mag7 stocks were the big laggard as the S&P 493 managed gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Cyclicals continued to outperform Defensives as the market’s ‘goldilocks‘ view of an easy fed saving the world remain in play…
Source: Bloomberg
So much for a slow week, Goldman’s trading desk noted that overall activity levels are a 6/10 and inbound questions around the unwind are HIGH. Our desk 8% better for sale.
LOs have a 22% sell skew, $1.5bn net sold so far. Biggest sell skews in TMT, Fins, Cons Discret.
HFs have a 12% sell skew evenly mixed long and short. HF sell skew is in the 98th %-ile over the past 1yr.
Notable that we are better for sale across ALL sectors with the largest being in TMT, Fins, and Industrials
TMT (Pete Callahan): seems to be primarily driven by a sharp reversal in YTD winners. SE, SPOT, RBLX, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, NFLX, META all stand out // not seeing a ton of flow on our desk TODAY specifically to substantiate this, our sense is most of these moves are related to the calendar flipping to Q3 // we saw a ton of LO movement into quarter-end last week across Sectors, and wonder if there was a reluctance to sell/trim some of the big YTD/thematic Winners until after Q2 ended // Notably, AAPL (-18% ytd) stands out as one of the best assets today in TMT
HCare (Jon Chan): after exiting 2Q with the XLV/SPY pair at relative lows (levels not seen since ‘01) – the group is extra springy today – with Managed Care (+2-3%), Pharma (+1-3%), Tools (+2%) all leading the way – while more well-owned Medtech lagging marginally – suggestive of positioning driven rotations/momentum unwind with the turn of the quarter // No overarching fundamental driver from what we see – though can frame a couple headlines as being favorable for group – (i) with Senate progressing towards voting on final amendments for BBB (read: clarity on Medicaid/gov’t exposed), (ii) headlines over AZN discussing moving listing to US (read: could this be part of drug price negotiations?), (iii) incremental M&A headlines (more neg EV deals with IGMS, MRK GY says looking at more Life Sciences deals).
Consumer (Scott Feiler): Tons of inbounds as to “why is consumer working so well today?” // Think it could be as simple as Consumer Discretionary is the most net sold sector YTD on our PB book and is in the low-single digit percent in terms of exposure vs other sectors on a 1, 3 and 5-yr basis. Feels like a catch-up trade to the market on day 1 of 3Q // JOLTS job openings up, oil is at steady levels and positioning (according to PB data) in the space is light // The names moving are largely the shorted ones (see AEO/ANF/VSCO/KSS etc) vs some of the more owned names underperforming like RL, AS, TPR etc.
Fins (Alex Mitola): Performance seemingly driven by Powell’s comments regarding the possibility of a July rate cut “can’t say whether July is too soon to consider a cut” sparking a rotation toward cyclicals/value/small caps. Within Fins, seeing this in retail broker weakness (HOOD IBKR, LPLA, SCHW), regionals > large caps, and weakness in defensives (exchanges, pockets of insurance) most notably. Our Fins Pairs say it all – Long MoMo, High Growth and and Low Value baskets all underperform
The S&P’s intraday range was near the YTD lows today…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was higher again today having troughed when we noted the ‘Spot Up, Vol Up’ panic buying (green square) last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields soared today after some overnight buying. Rates started to rise on Powell’s comments and then surged higher on the ISM/PMI beat (seemingly ignoring the construction data’s dismal print). The long-end underperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, as Bloomberg’s Simon White noted today:
The wait might soon be over for President Donald Trump.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has the cover to reduce rates as most of the soft, ie market and survey based, data has become sufficiently stressed, with Powell today indicating he would be open to a rate reduction as early as July.
The Fed historically first eases policy not when the hard data weakens – by then it’s often too late to stave off a recession – but when stressed soft data tells it to.
The Fed aims to nip a downturn in the bud by responding to weaker soft data. Whether stocks remain supported at current lofty valuations will depend on when and by how much policy is loosened.
Rate-cut expectations dropped today also…
Source: Bloomberg
The last two days have seen the biggest flattening of the yield curve (2s30s) since the first week of May…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended basically unchanged after rallying back (after Powell and PMIs) from overnight selling…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold, interestingly, correlated strongly with the dollar today, bouncing back from yesterday’s end of quarter tumble…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold bounced off its uptrend channel and is now back above the 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were marginally higher today… though in the context of last week’s Israel-Iran ‘peace’ plunge, its dead-stick still…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin tracked lower with tech stocks, testing a $105k handle…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we noted yesterday, this is the lowest breadth record high in US equity history…
…and while seasonally, the next week or two are the strongest of the year for the broad market:
This week into the 4th of July has one of the highest historical win rates, with July 3rd especially standing out.
The other key seasonal dynamic is the underperformance of small caps… historically, the July rally has been almost entirely a large-cap phenomenon
July has been the worst month for the Momentum Factor since 2021…
… the ‘risk’ catalysts are building and July 17th looms. Have investors front-run this positive seasonality?
END
BIG NEWS OF THE DAY/
TRUMP’S BBB PASSES SENATE AND NOW ONTO THE HOUSE (SEE BELOW)
USA DATA RELEASES
Manufacturing Surveys Soared In June… But So Did Prices
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 10:05 AM
Despite ‘hard’ data plummeting, catching down to ‘soft’ data’s early demise, expectations were for a modest rise in Manufacturing survey data this morning.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.0 to 52.9 in June (better than 52.0 exp) – the strongest in over 3 years
ISM Manufacturing rose from 48.5 to 49.0 (better than 48.8 exp) – highest since Feb 2025
For once, both surveys agreed with each other…
Source: Bloomberg
However, tariffs remained a prevalent theme, notably affecting purchasing decisions and prices.
Latest data showed manufacturers raising their input buying activity to the greatest extent since April 2022, at times reflective of efforts to build up inventories given ongoing trade and price uncertainty.
Nonetheless, input costs still rose sharply, with inflation hitting its highest level for nearly three years.
A similar trend was seen for output charges, which rose to the greatest degree since September 2022.
In the ISM survey, both employment and new orders remain below 50 (in contraction) and weakened in June.
“…with higher workloads driven by rising orders from both domestic and export customers. Reviving demand has also encouraged factories to take on additional staff at a rate not seen since September 2022.
“However, at least some of this improvement has been driven by inventory building, as factories and their customers in retail and wholesale markets have sought to safeguard against tariff-related price rises and possible supply issues. It therefore seems likely that we will get pay-back in the form of slower growth as we head into the second half of the year.
However, inflation looms:
“These price pressures are already building, with factories reporting steep cost increases again in June, linked to tariffs, which they are passing through to customers. The big question of course is whether this merely results in a short-term change in the price level rather than a more worrying return of stubborn inflation.
“More encouragingly, business confidence has continued to improve from the low-point seen in April, with US manufacturers becoming more optimistic in the face of fewer trade and tariff worries compared to the heightened uncertainty seen in April, That said, many firms remain cautious as they await news of trade deals as the deadline for paused tariffs draws closer.”
Is ‘soft’ data about to recover?
END
Labor Market Rebounds As Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 10:35 AM
One month after the BLS reported that in April the labor market rebounded, as the number of job openings rose sharply by 191K to 7.4 million, and far above estimates of a 7.1 million print, moments ago we got another indication that the labor market is staging a remarkable rebound when the BLS reported that in May the number of job openings soared by 374K to 7.769 million, the highest since Nov 2024 and smashing estimates of a drop to 7.3 million (from an upward revised 7.395 million print).
According to the BLS, the number of job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+314,000) and in finance and insurance (+91,000). The number of job openings decreased in federal government (39,000)..
… but the highlight is that after a mysterious spike last month which prompted us to muse if DOGE had achieved anything at all, we got a resounding answer today when the BLS confirmed that last month’s jump was an outlier and the number of Federal government job openings tumbled by almost a third, from 128K to just 89K, the lowest since covid.
In the context of the broader jobs report, it appears the US labor market may have dodged a bullet because whereas in March the labor market was almost demand constrained, when there were just 117K more openings than jobs in the US, since then the differential has risen and in May the number of job openings was 532K more than number of employed workers, suggesting the onset of a labor recession has once again been punted.
As noted previously, until this number turns negative – which it almost did but may have now averted for the foreseeable future – the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.
Said otherwise, in May the number of job openings to unemployed rose for the first time in months, from 1.0x to 1.1x.
While the job openings data was a surprising big beat and continued rebound, there was some mixed news on the hiring side where the number of new hires dipped modestly to 5.503 million from 5.615 million, which was the highest in over a year, so hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere – rose modestly after dropping the previous month, and in May it grew to 3.293 million from 3.215 million.
How to make sense of this sudden improvement in the labor market?
Well it may have to do with the DOL starting to factor in the collapse in the shadow labor market – the one dominated by illegal aliens – and the replacement of illegals with legal, domestic workers. And since this will surely lead to higher wages, we doubt many Trump supporters will hate the development, even if it means an increase in inflation down the line.
END
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
JUST BEFORE THE VOTE
As Final Vote Looms, Eight GOP Holdouts Threaten Passage Of Trump’s $3.3 Trillion Tax And Spending Bill
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 10:21 AM
After more than 21 hours of continuous voting, late-night negotiations, and a rare floor appearance by Vice President J.D. Vance, Senate Republicans remained mired in division early Tuesday over President Donald J. Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending proposal, raising fresh doubts about the survival of his signature legislative priority.
At the center of the impasse is Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, who has struggled to unite a fractured GOP conference around the sprawling bill. dubbed by Trump as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” – which includes sweeping tax cuts, a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase, significant Medicaid reductions, and a rollback of clean energy subsidies.
Currently, eight major Republican holdouts remain opposed or undecided. With only a razor-thin margin for defections, Thune can afford to lose just three votes. Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina have declared their opposition, and Maine’s Susan Collins is leaning no. That leaves Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — a perennial swing vote — as the potential deciding factor. Thune and Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) spent the early morning hours huddling with Murkowski, offering compromises and tweaks to the bill in hopes of flipping her vote.
“I think we’re going to get there,” Trump told reporters as he departed the White House Tuesday morning. “It’s tough. We’re trying to bring it down, bring it down so it’s really good for the country.”
But that optimism was not yet matched on the Senate floor, where votes on dozens of amendments continued into a second day. A visibly weary Thune said shortly after 5 a.m., “We’re getting to the end here,” though it remained unclear whether he had secured the votes.
Both Thune and Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) insist there’s a deal to pass the bill, but we shall see…
BREAKING: Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) says Republicans have the votes to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill in the U.S. Senate, according to Fox News.
Tensions Boil Over on Medicaid, SNAP, and Debt Ceiling
Murkowski’s objections stem largely from the bill’s steep cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which could hit Alaska’s vulnerable populations particularly hard. Efforts to carve out protections for the state were dealt a blow when Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough ruled key provisions in violation of the Byrd Rule, which restricts what can be included in budget reconciliation bills.
Negotiators scrambled to rewrite the language. A compromise on delaying SNAP cuts based on Alaska’s progress in improving administrative error rates appeared to gain traction. But language aimed at providing Alaska with an enhanced Medicaid funding match had not yet cleared MacDonough’s scrutiny by early Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Paul has proposed replacing the $5 trillion debt ceiling hike with a far smaller $500 billion increase — a move he argues would preserve leverage for deeper cuts in a follow-up reconciliation bill. But most Republicans see the idea as a nonstarter. “I don’t want anything,” Paul said when asked if he could be persuaded to support the package in exchange for concessions.
A Late-Night Drama on the Floor
Just before dawn, Murkowski was seen shaking her head repeatedly during an intense discussion with Thune, Crapo, and fellow Alaskan Sen. Dan Sullivan, Punchbowl News reports. At one point, she and Thune left the chamber to confer privately in his office. Though Thune called it “just chatting,” it was clear that GOP leaders were pulling out all the stops to secure her vote.
The ongoing drama frustrated even Democrats. “There’s still no text,” one exasperated Democratic senator told The Hill. “Have you seen what’s going on, on the floor, I’ve never seen anything like that,” the lawmaker continued. Meanwhile Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) accused Republicans of “slow-walking” the bill to buy time for internal negotiations. “They’ve made a lot of promises, contradictory promises to different parts of their caucus,” Schumer said on MSNBC.
Amid the floor chaos, senators did pass a bipartisan amendment, 99 to 1, to strike language in the bill that would have barred states from regulating artificial intelligence for a decade in a blow to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). The language was removed over concerns about consumer and child safety raised by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA).
Other proposed amendments, however, failed. Collins’ bid to double the bill’s rural hospital relief fund to $50 billion – funded by restoring the top marginal tax rate for ultra-high earners, was rejected by a wide margin. A conservative amendment to roll back Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act has yet to receive a vote but threatens to split the conference further: if it fails, hardliners like Ron Johnson (R-WI), Mike Lee (R-UT), and Rick Scott (R-FL) may walk away. If it passes, moderates like Murkowski and Collins could defect.
Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, equated Collins’ amendment to “a band aid on an amputation.” Her amendment would have increased the top tax rate on individuals earning more than $25 million in a year to 39.6%. –Bloomberg
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), joined by Murkowski, has been circulating an amendment to soften the bill’s rollback of clean energy incentives. The Ernst amendment would delay the expiration of wind and solar credits, and remove a new excise tax on projects using components from China and other foreign adversaries. Fiscal hawks oppose the change, arguing it waters down promised savings.
And then we go back to the House…
Even if the Senate manages to pass the bill, trouble awaits in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is under pressure from both moderates and Freedom Caucus hardliners, many of whom are dissatisfied with the Senate’s deeper Medicaid cuts and smaller spending offsets.
Part of the calculus is to strip language that could threaten the bill’s odds in the House, which is planning to vote on the Senate measure later this week. The House’s own version of the bill passed by a single vote.
The Senate’s deeper Medicaid cuts — which caused Tillis to defect — will put pressure on swing-district Republicans, while Freedom Caucus hardliners are angry that the Senate bill would create larger deficits than the House-passed measure. -Bloomberg
“This bill doesn’t deliver what we promised,” Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) said, citing insufficient relief on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. LaLota supported the House version but has vowed to oppose the Senate’s.
Behind the scenes, Johnson has been urging Senate Republicans to use a “wraparound” amendment – a final catch-all tweak to the bill, to restore some House provisions, including provider tax language and SNAP reforms. But expectations of a major rewrite at the eleventh hour are slim.
“I have prevailed upon my Senate colleagues to please, please, please put it as close to the House product as possible,” Johnson said Monday. But few on Capitol Hill took that hope seriously.
In short, it’s still a shit show even if Thune and Mullin claim otherwise… for now.
END
THE VOTE:
Senate Passes Trump’s $3.3 Trillion Tax And Spending Bill
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 12:08 PM
Update (1207ET): The Senate has passed the GOP’s tax & spending cuts bill by a vote of 51-50.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill has officially PASSED the U.S. Senate, with JD Vance breaking the tie
It now heads back to the House for a vote on the changes made.
Media Forced To Admit Trump’s Tariffs Are Working As Revenues Spike
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 09:05 AM
The debate is raging this week over increased government spending and the potential raising of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, with many fiscal conservatives splitting with the GOP and the Trump Administration over what they feel is a betrayal of their campaign promises to reduce government waste.
Trump argues that all the elements included in his “big beautiful bill” are necessary in order to revitalize the US economy and break from the interdependency of the current globalist model. Can the dollar continue to absorb the pressure of ever increasing debt obligations? Is there a way to cut the debt without cutting spending?
At least one aspect of Trump’s fiscal plan is showing success in this area despite the warnings of critics; the establishment media has been forced to admit that the administration’s tariff efforts are actually working.
The US has collected over $121 billion in revenues from tariffs on imported goods, and despite claims that tariffs are a “tax on the consumer”, prices on the shelf have not risen so far. Opponents of the policy are struggling to explain the data. Some still argue that disaster is right around the corner while others are acknowledging that there is a potential to pay off US debt over time if the import duties remain in place for the long term.
CNBC forced to recognize that Trump's tariffs have brought in over $121 BILLION to the US without imposing a burden on the consumers.
Misconceptions about tariffs lead the public to believe that they are a tax on foreign producers or governments, but tariffs are in fact taxes on companies sourcing products internationally from nations on the duties list. The taxes place the responsibility of adaptation on corporations – If they buy more from US sources or countries not on the list, then their costs will remain low. If they don’t, then they must shift the costs in other ways.
Raising prices is the last thing any company not producing necessities wants to do. Consumers can easily cut back on peripheral goods. In other words, the assertion that tariffs are a hidden tax on the public is rooted in a lack of understanding on import duties and how they affect markets. Consumers will buy from producers that keep prices down by adapting to the tariffs, and there are many ways to adapt. It’s that simple.
Democrats and some conservatives argued that prices would rise exponentially as international corporations immediately deferred costs on consumers in order to offset the added expenses on imported raw materials and manufactured goods. They were wrong.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.3% in May, modestly above the central bank’s 2% annual target. The May Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, cooler than economists expected.
Some blame the “front loading” of imports (increased orders of goods before the tariffs went into effect). However, front loading was estimated to act as a stop-gap for only two months (possibly three by some predictions). Tariffs were initiated in February and though there have been fluctuations it’s been five months waiting for the tariff asteroid to explode American wallets and nothing has happened.
Will companies eventually shift the tariff burden on American consumers over the next year? A better question would be can they shift the burden in a weaker retail market? Would they take the risk of plunging sales? Or will they do what they should have been doing all along: Buy a larger percentage of their goods from US producers and bring manufacturing back home?
At the current rate, tariffs could generate around $300 billion by the end of this year and $1.2 trillion over the next four years. It’s not enough to offset increased debt spending, but it does offer an alternative to hiking taxes on the general public (which is what Democrats would do). And if inflation concerns continue to prove over-hyped, then the tariff model could remain in place for many years to come.
END
Takeover Begins: Robots Set To Outnumber Humans At Amazon Warehouses
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 02:00 PM
Amazon hasn’t set a public date for fully replacing warehouse workers with robots, but all indicators suggest a gradual transition is well underway, with significant workforce reductions likely, alongside productivity gains driven by automation and AI through the 2030s.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon, the nation’s second-largest private employer in the U.S., is quickly approaching a new milestone in warehouse automation: “There will soon be as many robots as humans.” This equates to over a million robots.
Roughly 75% of Amazon’s deliveries are now assisted by robotic systems, which perform tasks such as picking, sorting, packaging, and moving items. The rapid integration of robots, such as the advanced Vulcan, marks a significant step toward full automation for fulfillment centers.
“They’re one step closer to that realization of the full integration of robotics,” said Rueben Scriven, research manager at Interact Analysis, a robotics consulting firm.
The onboarding of automation has slowed Amazon’s hiring. The average number of employees per facility has dropped to a 16-year low, and Amazon plans to reduce its total workforce in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the number of packages that Amazon ships per employee has soared from 175 in 2015 to approximately 3,870 in recent months, indicating that automation has significantly supercharged the company’s productivity gains.
Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy said recently that AI will be integrated at fulfillment centers “to improve inventory placement, demand forecasting, and the efficiency of our robots.”
“We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs,” Jassy said in a memo to employees last month. “It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce.”
All signs suggest Amazon has reached its employment peak.
To all the Amazon workers pushing to unionize—remember, the robots are coming for your jobs. This trend is accelerating and will persist through the 2030s. For a clearer picture of how many jobs AI will displace, see this 2023 Goldman report.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
A NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
The King Report July 1, 2025 Issue 7524
Independent View of the News
Fed’s Bostic Says Tariff Pass-Through May Be Slow, Persistent – BBG 10:55 ET “There is a risk that seeps into the psyche of the consumer and the business leader,” Bostic said… (Now Fed presidents are performing psychological analysis from afar! We thought they are data driven!)
What!?! We thought the Fed doesn’t comment on fiscal policy.
ESUs rallied from the Nikkei opening until they hit a high of 6255.00 at 2:13 ET on aggressive buying for the Monday Rally and Q2 performance gaming. However, ESUs commenced a decline before the European opening that pushed ESUs down to 6243.75 at 3:06 ET. The usual suspects bought the opening dip; ESUs rallied to 6253.50 at 5:36 ET. After two more failed attempts to move above the daily high of 6255.00, traders got concerned. They sold; ESUs fell to 6231.25 at 10:37 ET.
The post-European close relief rally conflated with a Noon Balloon to push ESUs to 6245.75 at 12:40 ET. ESU and equity sellers returned; ESUs sank to 6224.25 at 13:57 ET. ESUs bounced to 6238.50 at 14:21 ET. Selling reappeared; ESUs dropped to 6227.00 at 14:39 ET.
Q2 performance gaming then began in earnest; someone manipulated ESUs to a daily high of 6256.25 at 15:28 ET. After a quick drop to 6247.00 at 15:38 ET, someone or more manipulated ESUs to a daily high of 6263.75 at 15:53 ET. ESUs sank to 6250.00 at 16:00 ET.
It appears that rebalancing for Q2 and/or defensive asset allocation weighed on stocks – until the blatant and illegal manipulation to boost Q2 performance appeared.
Trump: To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage. In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.
Positive aspects of previous session USUs rallied sharply. Gasoline and oil fell moderately. Q2 performance gaming and ESU manipulation boosted stocks; S&P and Nasdaq all-time highs
Negative aspects of previous session Gold rallied smartly The DJTA declined and ESUs sank during late trading Portfolio rebalancing and defensive asset allocation weighed on stocks. The NY Fang+ Index was up less than 0.05% at 14:41 ET; manipulation put it +0.80% at 15:54 ET.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will blatant ESU manipulation ever be prosecuted?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6198.33 Previous sessionS&P 500 IndexHigh/Low: 6215.08; 6174.97
Info Tech led the Q2 rally, +23.50%; Comm Services +18.2%; Industrials +12.56% Energy (-9.37%); Healthcare (-7.62%); and Real Estate (-.99%) were the losing groups.
DOJ sues Los Angeles over sanctuary laws (Give Dems a dose of their lawfare medicine) “The Supremacy Clause prohibits the City of Los Angeles and its officials from singling out the Federal Government for adverse treatment—as the challenged law and policies do—thereby discriminating against the Federal Government,” the DOJ argued. “Accordingly, the law and policies challenged here are invalid and should be enjoined.”… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/doj-sues-los-angeles-over-sanctuary-laws
@LeadingReport: Border Czar Tom Homan confirms that a federal investigation is underway into Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for allegedly employing a criminal alien on her congressional staff and instructing them on how to evade ICE.
@elonmusk: It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!! Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people. Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next yearif it is the last thing I do on this Earth… (Musk doesn’t realize how many Americans demand on government.)
The US, like other socialist nations, will spend like crazy and pile on debt until it collapses. The pain of fiscal reform is too severe for the populace and the politicians. Growing the economy out of debt is no longer feasible. US and global conditions are far different now than after WWI, WWII, and the ‘80s.
Today – The usual suspects will play for start-of-July buying that tends to appear near or on the NYSE close. If not for the blatant and illegal ESUs manipulation during the final hour of trading on Monday, stocks would have suffered losses to end Q2. More importantly, the NY Fang+ Index, struggled until the late manipulation. Normally Fangs are pushed to the moon to enhance performance.
This implies that Fangs and trading sardines are very tired and need a rest. So, after start-of-July buying and the 4th of July Rally, be alert for a significant retreat.
NB: With the S&P 500 Index making an all-time high, only 7% of its stocks made new highs! Non-Fang/Mag 7 stocks need to rally smartly in coming weeks, or else!
ESUs are -1.00; NQUs are -2.25; USUs are -2/32; and gold is +15.00 at 19:25 ET.
Expected Economic Data: June S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 52.0; June ISM Mfg. 48.7, Prices Paid 69.5; May Construction Spending-0.2% m/m; May JOLTS Job Openings 7.3m; June Wards Vehicles 15.35m
Central Bank Speakers: Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey, BoJ’s Ueda 9:30 ET in Sintra, Portugal
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5828; 100-day MA: 5775; 150-day MA: 5848; 200-day MA: 5833 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,839; 100-day MA: 42,065; 150-day MA: 42,624; 200-day MA: 42,599 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6204.95 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5807.26 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5383.26 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6042.82 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6157.56 triggers a sell signal
@RNCResearch: “We have to continue to elect more socialists, and we have to ensure we are unapologetic about our socialism.” – New Democrat leader Zohran Mamdani https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1939673108492743110
FDR and LBJ were socialists and facilitated socialism in the US. Mamdani is more communist.
@bonchieredstate: Mamdani: “The end goal is seizing the means of production.” Fact-checkers: “There’s no evidence Mamdani is a communist. We rate that claim false.” https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1939507833571246584
@DanBurmawy: Mamdani said that when you grow up in the Third World, your understanding of Palestine is different. He’s absolutely right. In the Third World, we’re taught to hate successful nations, because our own nations have failed. It’s a coping mechanism, a way to soothe the sting of dysfunction and defeat. We convince ourselves that the West didn’t build its prosperity, it stole it. And the intellectual fraud of postcolonial studies reinforces this fantasy. Within that delusion, Zionism isn’t a story of Jewish survival and revival, it’s rewritten as colonial theft. It’s far easier to vilify Israel than to confront our own misery.
Mamdani is NOT hiding his agenda; but the media is!
The Democratic Pary is experiencing a Bolshevik vs Menshevik moment.
Turley: Sotomayor says public education is doomed without mandatory gay and trans story hour Teachers were specifically told to “[d]isrupt” thinking or values opposing transgender views… parents would like teachers to focus more on core subjects and show greater restraint in pursuing social agendas… Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson had shocked many when she dismissed the objections of parents, stating that they could simply remove their children from public schools. It was a callous response to many families who do not have the means to pay for private or parochial schools… Our public schools are imploding. Some are lowering standards to achieve “equity” and graduating students without proficiency skills. Families are objecting to the priority given to political and social agendas to make their kids better people when they lack of math, science, and other skills needed to compete in an increasingly competitive marketplace… https://thehill.com/opinion/education/5374643-sotomayor-says-public-education-is-doomed-without-mandatory-gay-and-trans-story-hour/
@YossiBenYakar: An English patriot was arrested in the UK for chanting “Come on, England.” Why? Because it might offend migrants. He was accused of Islamophobia — for cheering on his own country. Let that sink in. When did national pride become illegal? https://x.com/YossiBenYakar/status/1939142971565187237
@trump_repost: Trump Fragrances are here. They’re called “Victory 45-47” because they’re all about Winning, Strength, and Success — For men and women. Get yourself a bottle, and don’t forget to get one for your loved ones too. Enjoy, have fun, and keep winning! Go to:https://gettrumpfragrances.com
“There’s a sucker born every minutes.” – PT Barnum
“Never give a sucker an even break.” – WC Fields
“It is morally wrong to allow a sucker to keep his money.” – WC Field
US politics have devolved into cults. No matter what a pol does, the respective cult will support it.
Harvey, I love you to death but please please archive all the historical data and years old commentary as your new information is getting buried and becoming unfindable…Paul Heron limeyheron@hotmail.com
How many Megawatts would that archive require to create. Harvey has provided us tremendous value already.
Anyone want to volunteer efforts to produce archival work? Could we buy DVDs of such an archive. Could AI download all the existing blog pages and archive them for future reference? net2j@hotmail.com
harveyorganblog.com 
Harvey, I love you to death but please please archive all the historical data and years old commentary as your new information is getting buried and becoming unfindable…Paul Heron limeyheron@hotmail.com
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How many Megawatts would that archive require to create. Harvey has provided us tremendous value already.
Anyone want to volunteer efforts to produce archival work? Could we buy DVDs of such an archive. Could AI download all the existing blog pages and archive them for future reference? net2j@hotmail.com
LikeLike