323 C HSBC 50
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 112
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 126
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 96 5
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 210
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 26 37
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 8 6
709 C BARCLAYS 28
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 25
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 6 7
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 371 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 37,100 OZ or 1.1539 TONNES
total notices so far: 5678 contracts for 567,800 OR 17.660 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 500 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2.5 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5914 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 29.570 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 5.475 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 34.820 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
AN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 3.0793 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1208 CONTRACTS OI TO 163,567 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 595 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 595 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1208 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 595 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1803 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.21 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.015 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.21 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
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ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.95 PTS OR 0.09%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 149.82 PTS OR 0.62%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 223.85 PTS OR 0.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.56%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1666 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1628/ Oil DOWN TO 65.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.1666 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1628 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2948 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 437,662 OI WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $43.85 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (750 ). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //TUESDAY TRADING.
THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES.
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 0
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3698 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FAIR AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1591 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
HOWEVER JULY IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.432 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 20.32 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 20.32 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 32+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 229 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 750 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 750 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED, 1591 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0.432 QUEUE JUMP = 20.32 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 54 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $43.85/ /) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////TUESDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING YESTERDAY. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OFAPRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; ZERO SO FAR
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ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 11.502 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 13,900 OZ OR 0.432 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 20.320 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $43.85
WE HAD A HUGE 1523 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3698 CONTRACTS OR 369,800 0Z (11.502 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 186,143. contracts: POOR volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
JULY CONTRACT MONTH
JULY 2/2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY . 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 371 notice(s) 37,100 OZ 1.1539 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 855 contracts 85500 OZ 2.650 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 5678 notices 567800 oz 17.660 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 0 customer entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
0 ENTRIES
total withdrawal NIL oz
adjustments: 3
a)BRINKS // customer acct to dealer: 57,196.629 oz (1779 kilobars)
b) JPMorgan: dealer to customer acct 8150.57 oz
c) Loomis dealer to customer acct 2,121.768 oz (66 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 1226 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 956 CONTRACTS. ON TUESDAY WE HAD 1095 NOTICES FILED SO WE GAINED A HUGE 139 CONTRACTS OR 13,900 OZ (0.432 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH MUCH JOY A HUGE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD
AUGUST LOST 742 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 317,029
SEPT GAINED 39 CONTRACTS TO 1136
We had 371 contracts filed for today representing 37,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 26 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 371 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 37 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5678 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1226 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (371 x 100 oz per contract) equals 653,300 OZ OR 20.320 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 20.320 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (5678 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (1226 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (371 x 100 oz) which equals 653,300 OZ OR 20.32 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 20.32 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 20.320 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,209,152.320 oz 68.713 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 37,048,199.960 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,126,202.928: or 626.009 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,921,997.032 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,917,050 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 557.295 tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
THE JULY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
JULY 2
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) Out of HSBC 380,997.030 oz ii) Out of JPMorgan 646,486.100 oz iii) Out of Loomis 120,182.980 oz total withdrawal 2,228,166.110 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entry |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 3 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into CNT 599,472.631 oz ii)Into Delaware 1881.911. ooz iii) Into Stonex 600,569.400 oz total withdrawal customer side// 1,201,923.942 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 500 CONTRACT(S) (2.5 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1050contracts (5.250 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5914 Contracts (29.570 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposits into dealer accounts
i) Into Asahi dealer 607,480.700 oz
total dealer deposit 607,480.700 oz
total deposit nil oz
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3 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into CNT 599,472.631 oz
ii)Into Delaware 1881.911. ooz
iii) Into Stonex 600,569.400 oz
total withdrawal customer side// 1,201,923.942 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 entries
3 entries
i) Out of HSBC 380,997.030 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan 646,486.100 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 120,182.980 oz
total withdrawal 2,228,166.110 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 2
a) customer to dealer CNT 625,110.824 oz
ii) customer to dealer Stonex 1192,761.220 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 192.426 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 500.183 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 1550 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 310 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 275 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 35 CONTRACTS OR 175,000 OZ ENTERTAINED AN E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST GAINED 23 CONTRACTS TO 2392
SEPTEMBER GAINED 945 CONTRACTS UP TO 131,315 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 500 or 2,500,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 56.996 small//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5914 X5,000 oz = 29.570 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1550) AND the number of notices served upon today (500 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (5914) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(1500) minus number of notices served upon today (500)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 34.820 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 34.820 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 192.426 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 214.173/500.184 million. 42.71%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
JUNE 2 WITH GOLD UP $80.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD UP $22.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.71 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.61 TONNES
MAY 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.46 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD UP $69.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.89TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 948.23 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $1.58/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.773 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.38/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.375 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 478.049 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
MATHEW PIEPENBERG
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Can BTC ever be money?
Bitcoin is said to be a sound money alternative to debasing fiat currencies. But enthusiasts fail to understand the role of credit and why a stability of value is vital.
| Alasdair MacleodJul 2∙Paid |
The key issue is whether bitcoin can be a future form of money. If so, then it can become the future anchor-value for currencies and lower forms of credit. If not, then it is merely an ephemera, a latter-day tulipmania, the evidence of a speculative mania liable to be punctured as the credit bubble deflates.
There are some important aspects of the bitcoin phenomenon. There is the brilliance of a self-auditing blockchain coupled with an electronic mining system, which removes systemic risk. Once a bitcoin is mined, it exists forever as an identified unit, capable of being transferred between owners as a medium of exchange ad infinitum.
But without the status of legal tender, can it ever truly be money? And will the blockchain allow the authorities to identify and confiscate bitcoin on the basis that a previous owner bought and sold it to launder the proceeds of crime?
For most people, whether bitcoin will become money legal or otherwise is immaterial. Fortunes have been made, the arithmetic of supply relative to fiat currencies is compelling, and investors are onto a sure thing.
This article ignores the many bitcoin issues, concentrating on monetary practicalities. It is not intended for those with strong convictions either way who have made up their minds, but for the large majority of readers seeking a balanced analysis.
The logic behind bitcoin is compelling: a fixed maximum supply of 21 million compares with government money printing at an accelerating rate toward infinity. It leads to comparing bitcoin’s market capitalisation of $2.145 trillion with global credit outstanding of over $300 trillion and expanding, giving a theoretical current value of nearly $15 million for each bitcoin. No wonder there are hopes that bitcoin will go considerably higher.
For bitcoin to be valued in this way assumes that it is actually money or will be when fiat currencies become worthless — a second assumption. Otherwise, it is no more than a paper derivative based on an intangible concept.
For bitcoin to be a believable substitute for fiat currencies there are hurdles to surmount. The first is that it has no legal status nor a tradition of being a medium of exchange. This cannot be dismissed lightly, despite the anarchical chaos of collapsing fiat currencies foreseen by devotees. It also assumes that electrical energy will be freely available at all times despite the economic chaos predicted.
But even in monetary anarchy, both governments and their lawmaking will continue, both likely to become more repressive as economic and credit conditions deteriorate.
It is a huge leap of faith to argue that in the face of currency collapses, governments will admit their monetary failures and embrace a private-sector alternative, particularly when it enriches its early promoters. More likely, they will shut it down and possibly even restrict gold in defiance of their own common laws in desperate attempts to maintain control over credit markets.
Furthermore, crypto promoters misunderstand of the role of money. While every form of exchange media is credit, they come in two basic forms: metallic money without counterparty risk, accepted as such in the common laws of nearly all jurisdictions with their roots in Roman law. And then there is credit circulating nationally with counterparty risk. The former rarely circulates as a medium of exchange, and the latter in the form of currencies and bank credit make up almost the entire circulating media.
For the value of currencies and bank credit to be stable requires them to be exchangeable for gold, and the final abandonment of the link between the two in 1971 is the source of circulating credit’s debasement.
The reason gold standards work is that over time gold’s value is stable relative to commodities and wholesale prices, and any currency readily exchangeable for gold acts as a gold substitute. In other words, so long as gold standards exist, currencies’ values vary little over time. The long-term value of savings is guaranteed, and businesses calculate their potential returns confident in the value of their anticipated profits at the end of an investment project, as well as the true cost of any finance required including its eventual repayment.
The ability of businessmen to calculate their prospective returns is fundamental to economic progress.
Therefore, the key to circulating media is stability of value, which bitcoin does not provide. It would eliminate the expansion of credit whose value is linked to it, because of the uncertainty of its value over time. A lack of understanding of the relationship between a monetary anchor without counterparty risk and credit is behind assumptions that bitcoin can replace fiat currencies as the common exchange media.
An economy based on bitcoin without derivative credit would simply regress to medieval times when the only acceptable payment was physical coin. The mistake bitcoin promoters make is to believe that any expansion of credit is bad. That is not so. Bank credit conjured out of thin air and deployed productively does not undermine a currency. It is governments which are the problem. They require the discipline to always ensure that they hold sufficient gold reserves to meet currency redemptions. And they should stop trying to determine economic outcomes.
If BTC cannot be money, what is it?
Clearly, if bitcoin is not and never can be money in the accepted sense, then it is nothing. It is not even overpriced tulip bulbs, though there may be some uses for the blockchain concept.
Buyers have been early enthusiasts, and regulations forced on crypto-brokers have done much to sanitise the industry. But there are still many quacks using promotional methods that are downright dishonest. However, responding to public demand and potential profitability, bitcoin dealing has begun to go mainstream, with ETFs and other derivatives being marketed by establishment banks.
Undoubtedly, there is a heavy tech influence behind the industry. And just as technology stocks have reflected easy credit conditions, there is little doubt that there is a corelation between the tech sector and bitcoin, reflected in the chart below:
While corelation isn’t everything, the evidence is that instead of a future money bitcoin is behaving like a tech stock. Compared with the Magnificent Seven, the correlation is even clearer. The next chart compares the performance of bitcoin (the feint line) with CNBC’s Magnificent 7 Index over the last 3 months.
Allowing for volatility, the large majority of rises and falls all occur together. Clearly, if tech stocks fall, bitcoin will fall with them. Bitcoin appears to be a tech stock without business risks, but no assets and no earnings either.
This is the polar opposite of what bitcoin investors expect. They look for the credit bubble to drive the relationship between fiat currencies and bitcoin with bitcoin rising priced in fiat. But an expansion of government credit from here will almost certainly drive interest rates higher as debt becomes increasingly unsustainable, undermining stock values. In this context, the persistence of bullish leverage in the market, particularly in tech stocks is also concerning:
Higher bond yields and weakening currencies threaten the eventual collapse of the debt/credit bubble, which has happened often enough in the past following credit expansions to be undeniable. Margin levels are close to records, which suggests that NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 have significant downside as they are unwound. How bitcoin performs in these circumstances will be its true test.
TURKISH CITIZENS/HOARDING GOLD
Despite Dollar Access & Govt Crackdowns, Turks Are Sitting On $331 Billion Of Household Gold
turkish citizens have amassed over time a huge $331 billion dollars worth of gold
(Peter Reagen)
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Peter Reagan via BirchGold.com,
“The distinct Turkish tradition of “saving under the pillow” – a term referring to keeping valuables like gold at home – often comes into play during times of economic crisis, when the government calls on citizens to spend their savings to help revive the economy.”
The opening part of a recent report highlighting how Turkey’s 4,500 tons of physical gold bullion are mostly domestically-held is curious, and also telling.
Why should Turks oblige its government and spend what little wealth they are likely to have, the latter point being so because the government has destroyed the currency? It is quite brazen that a government infamous for monetary mismanagement would tell its citizens, who are far more capable of managing finances, on what to do with the very money that the central bank is destroying.
Perhaps it is the full awareness of how careless and hazardous the central bank is that has caused Turks to accumulate $331 billion of household gold.
Bars, coins, jewelry: whatever can be bought is stored away as Turks wait to see how much further the lira can crumble, having hit an inflation rate of 85.51% in October 2022.
The government obviously sees this as a problem, constantly trying to associate gold with tax evasion and money laundering.
Because why else would someone buy gold, right?
It has increased the sales tax on gold purchases and likely played some part in banks having huge differences in buy/sell prices, driving the gold trade underground.
Any jewelry purchase over $5,000 must be reported thoroughly, as if anyone buying a nice ring could be funding terrorism, and sales of uncertified cut gold bars were banned in 2024.
Despite this obvious clampdown, and despite relatively easy access to U.S. dollars and euros, Turks are still mostly opting for the comparatively inconvenient option of holding physical gold.
The article purports that this is because of cultural tradition, but it’s very likely that Turkey’s citizens recognize free-floating paper for what it is.
Why escape from one inflationary asset into another?
Amusingly enough, a prominent Turkish economist notes that it’s these very reserves that the government is hounding that provide stability during times of crisis, which seem to be ongoing these days.
When economic stress hits, liquidating some of their gold to rebuy it when things stabilize is how Turks keep things moving.
Without this, the economy might altogether crumble.
The drive to move gold out of households and into questionable governing hands goes back to 1980s. Turks were meant to get interest from depositing their gold in banks, but the initiative mostly went nowhere.
Here’s why:
…concerns soon emerged about liquidity risks. Policymakers feared a potential crisis if all depositors demanded physical gold at once, particularly if the collected gold had already been sold abroad to obtain foreign currency.
Sort of like the COMEX-London-Basel III situation, isn’t it? With obvious admissions such as these, it’s no wonder Turks only trust gold that they can hold and store themselves.
Erdogan’s 2016 appeal to patriotism morphed into the Gold Conversion System in 2022, which was about as alluring as it sounds. Strangely, the article says that these and similar efforts didn’t take off because of “cultural norms, practical concerns, and structural economic uncertainties.”
It seems that the answer lies elsewhere and is much more straightforward.
Trust is mostly necessarily earned, and the government of Turkey has done little but betray it over the last few decades. On the other hand, gold has upheld it and then some.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDRE MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 229
5. COMMODITY REPORT…COPPER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.95 PTS OR 0.09%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 149.82 PTS OR 0.62%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 223.85 PTS OR 0.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.56%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1666 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1628/ Oil DOWN TO 65.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.1666 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1628 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
END
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1666 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1628 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.95 PTS OR 0.09%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 149.82 PTS OR .62%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 223.85 PTS OR 0.56%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 96.48/ EURO FALLS TO 1.17781 DOWN 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.438//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.85…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5960/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.505 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.233%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.333
3j Gold at $3328.75 Silver at: 36.00 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 31 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.61
3m oil (WTI) into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.85// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.438% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7923 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9336 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.275 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.799 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.793 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.83
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4690 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.272 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.824 DOWN 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Erase Overnight Gains As July 9 Trade Deadline Looms
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 08:20 AM
US equity futures are flat, after trading in a narrow overnight range, with small caps outperforming as we see more signs of a Value rotation as H2 kicks off and after yesterday’s dramatic momentum plunge. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the red, reversing an earlier 0.3% gain as President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline gets ever closer — Trump said on Tuesday he won’t delay the date for imposing higher levies on trading partners; Nasdaq futures drop 0.1% with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading. Futures for the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.9% to outperform as Tuesday’s rotation out of high-momentum stocks extended, which helped Cyclicals led by Financials continue to outperform. European equities advanced 0.4%. Bond yields are higher as the curve bear steepens and USD catches a bid which accelerates as US traders walk in. Commodities are rallying across all 3 complexes, with Brent trading back over $68. Yesterday, stocks fell into the bell on Trump comments about not extending the July 9 deadline and possibly not reaching a deal with Japan but recovered their initial losses. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP though it has not been a reliable predictor of NFP.
In premarket trading,Apple climbs 0.7% following an upgrade at Jefferies (from Sell to Hold) while Tesla (TSLA) rises 0.8% as the company saw its first increase in vehicle deliveries from its Shanghai factory this year. The rest of the Mag 7 is mixed (Amazon -0.2%, Meta -0.1%, Alphabet -0.9%, Nvidia -0.6%, Microsoft -0.2%). Here are some other notable movers:
- BrightView (BV) declines 8% after the commercial landscaping company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.
- Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) inches 2% higher after KeyBanc initiated coverage of the Mediterranean restaurant chain with a recommendation of overweight as it sees growth opportunities.
- Centene Corp. (CNC) tumbles 27% after the health insurer pulled its 2025 guidance, citing insurance market trends that veered from its assumptions and threaten $1.8 billion in revenue.
- Crocs (CROX) slips 1% after Goldman Sachs started coverage of the footwear company with a sell rating.
- Oscar Health (OSCR) falls 10% as Barclays initiates coverage at underweight, with the broker saying the stock presents assymetric downside risk after shares gained more than 50% in June alone on “speculative retail interest” despite elevated policy risks. Shares are also being hurt after peer Centene withdrew its 2025 guidance.
- Verint Systems (VRNT) gains 9% after Bloomberg News reported that the call-center software maker is in talks with buyout firm Thoma Bravo to acquire the company, according to people familiar, who also said there is no certainty the parties will reach an agreement.
The stocks of US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman and Bank of America all rose in premarket trading after boosting their dividends. Wall Street’s largest lenders passed this year’s Federal Reserve stress test, with regulators softening some requirements set in previous years.
As the US continues talks with key trading partners, Trump has turned up pressure on Japan and reaffirmed he won’t delay his tariff deadline, now just a week away. While markets swung wildly on trade headlines in April, equity indexes are now signaling diminished concern with stocks near record highs. The following comment helps explain why: Trump’s warning to Japan “is a non-event,” said Karen Georges, equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “The next two possible catalysts for the markets will be the jobless claims and the deadline for tariff negotiations.”
Elsewhere, data so far this week has affirmed the resilience of the US economy in the face of Trump’s tariff agenda. Wednesday’s ADP Research employment numbers and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls will offer investors additional insight into the labor market and the likely path of interest rates.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, set for its first gain this week, with mining, bank and energy shares leading the advance. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Santander rises as much as 2.8% after agreeing agreed to buy Banco Sabadell SA’s UK unit for £2.65 billion ($3.64 billion).
- Spectris shares rise as much as 5.3%, trading higher than the value of an agreed offer from KKR, buoyed by the prospect of a bidding war for the company.
- Tate & Lyle shares rise as much as 4.3% after the ingredients company outlined a “clear picture for future growth” at its capital markets event in London on Tuesday, according to analysts at Goodbody.
- Avanza gains as much as 15%, after newspaper Dagens Industri reported its biggest shareholder Sven Hagstromer’s family is in talks with a private equity firm to take the comapny private.
- Alfen shares rose as much as 1.2% after the firm announced Chief Executive Marco Roeleveld will retire early due to his health and depart at the end of this year.
- Hellenic Exchanges Athens shares gain as much as 14%, the most since 2020, as Euronext says it is in talks to buy the Athens stock market operator.
- European mining shares gain, as iron ore and steel surged, after China’s top leadership vowed to crack down on “disorderly” low-price competition and phase out some industrial capacity.
- European renewables stocks rally after a US excise tax seen as an existential threat to the solar and wind industry was stripped from the Senate GOP tax megabill that passed the chamber in a tie-breaking vote Tuesday.
- Bytes Technology shares fall as much as 27%, after the UK software provider issued a profit warning, citing a challenging macroeconomic environment that has led some customers to defer buying decisions.
- Jet2 shares fall as much as 3.7% as Panmure Liberum cuts its rating on the stock to hold from buy, seeing limited upside after the travel firm’s strong re-rating in recent months.
- ConvaTec shares extend decline in biggest two-day drop since August 2021, after the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services filed a proposal for certain chronic care products to be included in the Competitive Bidding Program.
- Greggs shares drop as much as 15% to approach a three-month low after the food-on-the-go retailer said full-year operating profit could be “modestly” below last year due to hot weather in Britain.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities traded in a narrow range as fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.5% before paring most of the losses, with Nintendo, Mitsubishi Heavy and Advantest among the biggest drags. Japanese shares slid after Trump threatened to impose levies of 30%-35% on imports amid dim prospects for a deal before next week’s deadline. Benchmarks also declined in South Korea, India, and Indonesia. Trump’s comments spurred caution over a recent rally driven by anticipation of progress in trade deals, hopes for dollar-driven foreign inflows and prospects for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
“There is a lot more risk of things falling apart than is being priced in by the market,” said Zuhair Khan, a fund manager at UBP Investments. “There is always the risk of a policy blunder by either side.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The yen is nursing the largest decline against the greenback among the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% which takes USD/JPY above 144. The pound also underperforms as it weakens 0.4%.
“The dollar usually loses value when the global economy is in decent shape and the Fed is cutting rates,” noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Both factors are relevant now.”
In rates, treasuries fall for a second day heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers. US 10-year yields rise 5 bps to 4.29%. European bonds also decline, with gilts faring slightly worse than their German counterparts. UK 10-year borrowing costs rise 4 bps to 4.50%. Swaps now imply about 63 basis points of Fed policy easing by year-end, down from 67 basis points on Tuesday before data unexpectedly showed that US job openings rose to the highest since November.
In commodities, spot gold is steady around $3,342/oz. WTI rises 0.8% to near $66 a barrel.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June Challenger job cuts (7:30am) and ADP employment change (8:15am); no Fed speakers are scheduled
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
- DAX +0.4%
- CAC 40 +1.1%
- 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.28%
- VIX little changed at 16.82
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1191.33
- euro -0.3% at $1.1769
- WTI crude +0.7% at $65.89/barrel
Top Overnight News
- A handful of hard-line House conservatives are threatening to tank a Wednesday procedural vote for the party’s reconciliation bill, a revolt that would bring the lower chamber to a screeching halt and potentially derail GOP leadership’s plan of clearing the legislation by July 4. The Hill
- US House Speaker Johnson said the Senate went a “little further than many of us would have preferred” in amending the bill, according to Punchbowl. It was later reported that US House Speaker Johnson said voting on the bill will be on Thursday at the latest, according to a Fox News interview.
- Punchbowl says the Reconciliation Bill schedule is to bring the US House back at 09:00ET/14:00BST today and vote as soon as possible. Punchbowl spoke to several people on the House GOP whip team Tuesday night, they expressed alarm about what they’re seeing on their whip cards. Sources said that they were racking up no’s from lawmakers who they didn’t expect would be opposed to the bill. Reports that a “bunch” of House Freedom Caucus members are saying they’ll vote no. Elsewhere, on the Democratic leader Jeffries’ Magic Minute, sources suggest it will be around one hour long.
- The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low. Politico
- Israel has agreed to “conditions to finalize” a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza according to Trump (Hamas said its ready for a ceasefire, but wants a complete end to the war). NYT
- Private employers in the US probably added 98,000 jobs in June, up from just 37,000 in the previous month, ADP data is expected to show. BBG
- Chinese artificial-intelligence companies are loosening the U.S.’s global stranglehold on AI, challenging American superiority and setting the stage for a global arms race in the technology. OpenAI’s ChatGPT remains the world’s predominant AI consumer chatbot, with 910 million global downloads compared with DeepSeek’s 125 million, but other Chinese companies have started to snatch customers by offering performance that is nearly as good at vastly lower prices. WSJ
- Xi Jinping addressed the price wars that plague many industries in China, saying that enterprises’ “disorderly low-price competition” needs to be regulated. SCMP
- Japan said it’s engaging in trade talks in good faith with the US after Trump reiterated his July 9 deadline. PM Shigeru Ishiba said Japan will work to reduce the deficit, but noted that the US needs to produce cars that meet the country’s safety standards. BBG
- China’s largest ports received almost 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from January to June, according to Kpler, highlighting a significant gap in US efforts to uphold existing sanctions. BBG
- Crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.42 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January and also cut holdings at the hub close to minimum operating levels of 20 million. BBG
- Netflix (NFLX) is reportedly discussing music-related events with Spotify (SPOT), via WSJ citing sources.
- Apple (AAPL) is facing a “hurdle” after supplier Foxconn (2317 TW) has pulled Chinese staff from India, according to Bloomberg.
Tariffs/Trade
- Japan’s tariff negotiator Akazawa is arranging a US visit as early as this weekend for trade talks, according to TV Asahi; Japan and the US are continuing vigorous trade talks. Notes that staff level talks were held on June 30th, reiterates that an agreement that would hurt Japan’s national interests for the sake of timing should not be made, will not deny possibilities of travelling to the US, but has no specific schedule to do so
- Canada’s Ambassador to Washington said Canada still aims to lift all Trump tariffs as part of a deal with the US, according to the Globe and Mail.
- South American bloc Mercosur concluded talks for a free-trade agreement with European bloc EFTA, while the blocs are set to announce finalisation of a free trade agreement on Wednesday, according to Brazilian sources cited by Reuters.
- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to visit China in August, via SCMP citing sources; his team is reportedly compiling a list of specific “asks” that would seek from China; in turn, Sefcovic has been asked to be more specific with his requests. Chinese investment within Europe is seen as a potential area for discussion. On this, the SCMP piece references EVs and battery plants.
- Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says many customers are reassessing shipment timings in light of potential reintroduction of US-China tariffs in August, making Q3 planning more complex.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric. ASX 200 gained as strength in the mining, materials and real estate sectors offset the losses in tech and financials, but with further upside contained by disappointing Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals data. Nikkei 225 declined amid trade uncertainty after President Trump noted doubts about a deal with Japan and suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underpinned on return from the holiday closure as gambling stocks surged owing to the jump in Macau gaming revenue for June, while the mainland was contained after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net CNY 266.8bln drain.
Top Asian News
- Japanese government issues emergency earthquake warning, near Tokara; with a 5.1 magnitude earthquake reported off the coast of Japan’s Kagoshima prefecture, via NHK; Earthquake hit around 15:26 JST (07:26BST). No tsunami warning.
European indices opened in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead. Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; newsflow has been a little light, primarily focussed on trade. European sectors were entirely in the green, Banks outperforming initially, bolstered by numerous equity specifics; however, strength has faded with sectors now mixed, Real Estate lags given the elevated yield environment.
Top European News
- UK PM Starmer won the vote in parliament on welfare reform; was forced to back down on certain aspects of his proposal. Savings under the plan are now expected to be closer to GBP 2bln vs. initially planned GBP 5bln.
- EU reportedly blocks Britain’s attempts to join the pan-European trading bloc, according to the FT.
- ECB’s Centeno says the ECB remains cautious on the rate path.
- ECB’s Rehn says the ECB should be mindful of the risk that inflation stays persistently below 2% target; says joint EU borrowing to finance defence could also boost EUR’s role by creating new safe asset.
- ECB’s Wunsch says there is an argument for providing a mildly supportive policy stance; not uncomfortable with market rate expectations.
- BoE’s Taylor says a soft landing on interest rates is at risk, don’t think bigger cuts are needed or desirable. UK neutral real rate to be around 0.75-1.0%, putting the nominal rate around 2.75-3.0%. In Q1, reading of the deteriorating outlook suggested that the BoE needed to be on a lower rate path, needing five cuts in 2025 rather than the market-implied quarterly pace of four. QT is not on a pre-set path, like rates.
FX
- USD is attempting to atone for recent pressure with the DXY firmer and eyeing 97.00 to the upside, having breached Tuesday’s 96.94 peak. Today’s data slate sees Challenger layoffs and ADP employment, ahead of tomorrow’s NFP print with markets likely to be particularly sensitive to any downside surprise.
- G10 peers are all lower vs the USD. The CAD fares best and is essentially flat on return from holiday and benefitting from crude strength.
- JPY lags, USD/JPY above 144.00 in a 143.33 to 144.24 band. Hit by the increasingly sour tone from the US administration regarding US-Japan trade talks. To recap, US President Trump said he doubts they’ll have a deal with Japan; suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs.
- Sterling under pressure against the USD, Cable below 1.37 to a 1.3689 trough, and also the EUR. Macro focus on the Welfare Reform vote which required another u-turn to ensure its passage, highlighting concern around the fiscal backdrop for the UK.
- While the EUR outpaces GBP, it is softer against the USD with EUR/USD below 1.18 and taking a breather from the 1.1830 multi-year peak that printed on Tuesday. Ongoing remarks from the Sintra conference, but nothing that has moved the dial thus far.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1546 vs exp. 7.1623 (Prev. 7.1534).
Fixed Income
- In the red, Gilts lag after further concessions on the Welfare Reform Bill. Concessions that increase the odds of tax increases and calls into question the government’s fiscal credibility, writes IFS. Lower by over 50 ticks on the session, but above support at 92.85 and 92.83 from last Friday and this Monday, respectively.
- A softer session for EGBs as well. Specifics light with nothing groundbreaking from Sintra just yet. Bunds at the low-end of a 130.08 to 130.50 band. One that is 10 ticks below Tuesday’s base but a similar amount clear of the WTD 130.00 base. If breached, we look to 129.92 and then 129.30 from the last two weeks of May.
- USTs also lower, though to a slightly lesser degree than the above peers. Holding at the low-end of a 111-20+ to 111-30+ band. A tick below Tuesday’s base and notching a fresh WTD low by half a tick. If the move continues, there is a bit of a gap until 110-25 from the week before.
- UK sells GBP 5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.46x (prev. 3.08x), average yield 3.847% (prev. 4.062%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.3bps)
- Germany sells EUR 4.557bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.60% 2035 Bund: b/c 1.6x, average yield 2.63%, retention 24.05%
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are in the green and continuing to climb as the session progresses. Magnitude of strength initially in-line with that seen in European equity benchmarks but has since extended. Newsflow this morning light, handful of updates on the geopolitical front and no sustained follow through to the surprise private inventory build last night.
- WTI resides in a USD 65.23-65.93/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 66.94-67.75/bbl range.
- Precious metals somewhat mixed, XAU and XAG wane from peaks set in APAC trade, hit this morning as the USD gains ground. Though, for XAU, parameters are not too pronounced as participants await the next macro inflection point and look to Challenger Layoffs before ADP.
- Base metals mostly but modestly firmer, upside capped by discussed USD strength. For copper, attention on reports of mining disruptions in Peru while LME on-warrant aluminium stockpiles have hit a 2025 peak.
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.7mln (exp.-1.8mln), Distillate -3.5mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +1.9mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
Geopolitics
- US President posted that his representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis on Gaza and Israel agreed to the necessary conditions to finalise a 60-day ceasefire during which they will work with all parties to end the war. Furthermore, the Qataris and Egyptians will deliver this final proposal and he hopes, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this deal, because it will not get better and will only get worse.
- US officials said Iran made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz last month although mines were not deployed in the strait, according to Reuters.
- “Iranian Minister of Communications: Internet outages in the country caused by external attacks”, according to Al Jazeera.
- “Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC: The war has stopped, but the United States and Israel have not achieved their goals”, according to Iran International.
- US Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that US weapons stockpiles have fallen too low, according to Politico.
- Quad joint statement expresses serious concern over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea, while they called for the perpetrators, organisers and financiers of the April 22nd attack in Indian Kashmir to be brought to justice.
US event calendar
- 7:00 am: Jun 27 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.1%
- 7:30 am: Jun Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 47%
- 8:15 am: Jun ADP Employment Change, est. 98k, prior 37k
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
My rain dance continues as it’s so hot the kids can’t sleep, my wife can’t sleep, Brontë the dog can’t sleep and I can’t sleep. The kids have come in to our bedroom a few times this week, waking us up just to tell us they have an itchy bite on their legs. That then leads to a 10 minute conversation about there being nothing we can do about it but ultimately leads to a trip downstairs for some bite cream. An hour later we may get back to sleep. Meanwhile I’ve had more diet cokes to help cool me down over the last few days than the fridge can hold in the Oval Office.
Markets also seemed to wilt a little in the heat yesterday and struggled to keep up their recent momentum, with the S&P 500 (-0.11%) slipping back from its record high even if it did get a small boost from news that the tax bill finally passed the Senate with VP JD Vance providing the casting tie-break busting vote (51-50). The bill now goes on to the House of Representatives, and both chambers have to pass the same version of the bill before it can reach President Trump’s desk. Remember that the first House vote was also very tight, with just a 215-214 margin, and the Republicans only have a 220-212 majority to start with. So there’s not much room for manoeuvre if they want to pass this by Trump’s July 4 deadline. There is a vote scheduled for later today, but already a handful of GOP lawmakers who voted for the first version of the bill are signaling opposition to the Senate changes. So it’s not going to be easy. If it ultimately passes, the bill would extend the Trump tax cuts from the first term, and it also includes a $5tn increase in the debt ceiling, so it would remove that risk coming up later in the summer too.
One of the most important developments of the last 24 hours was the latest JOLTS report of job openings in the US, which pointed to a tighter labour market than previously thought. On one level, it demonstrated continued resilience and strong labour demand, but investors responded by lowering the likelihood of rate cuts this year, which led to a small spike in Treasury yields across the curve. So the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.4bps) ultimately pared back its early decline (4.185% at the lows) and moved back up to 4.24% after getting as high as 4.275% as London went home. The 2yr yield (+5.3bps) moved up to 3.77% from a low of 3.696% before the data.
In more detail, the JOLTS report showed job openings were up to a 6-month high of 7.769m in May (vs. 7.3m expected). So that pushed back against the narrative of a softening labour market, and it raised the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals to 1.07. Moreover, the details pointed in a similar direction, with the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs back up to 2.1%. So collectively, that countered the dovish trend of recent days, where Fed cuts were looking increasingly likely, particularly after a few speakers floated the idea of a cut as soon as the next meeting in July. But with that JOLTS report, investors dialled back the likelihood of aggressive cuts, with the amount priced in by the December meeting down -2.2bps on the day to 64bps. Admittedly, there was some other data yesterday, including the ISM manufacturing. But the numbers were broadly as expected, with the headline index at 49.0 (vs. 48.8 expected), so they didn’t really shift investors’ perception of the outlook.
We did hear from Fed Chair Powell at the ECB’s Sintra forum, but he stuck to his cautious mantra, saying on inflation that “We’re watching. We expect to see over the summer some higher readings”. He also added that if not for the worries about inflation rising due to tariffs, the Fed would likely already have lowered the policy rate further. Meanwhile, Trump continued his own attacks on Powell, saying that “Anybody would be better than Powell” and that he had “two or three top choices” to succeed the current Fed Chair but failed to expand further.
Otherwise, the big focus has been on trade, with just a week left until the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension runs out on July 9. There were optimistic noises around a trade deal with India, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying they were “very close” to a deal, whilst India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in a Newsweek interview that “I believe it’s possible, and I think we’ll have to watch this space for the next few days”. Separately, Stephen Miran, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said he was “optimistic” on an EU deal. President Trump again struck a negative tone on the trade deal with Japan in comments to the press, saying they should “pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.” On whether the US would push back the July 9th deadline, the president noted he was “not thinking about the pause” and that he could be “writing letters to a lot of countries.”
This backdrop proved a trickier one for equities, and the S&P 500 fell -0.11% by the close. However, that was influenced by a sharp fall for Tesla (-5.34%), which fell after Trump posted that Elon Musk “may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far” and “Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” So that meant the Magnificent 7 fell -1.17% yesterday, which helped drag down US equities more broadly. Indeed, if you look at the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+1.10%), it was actually a very positive day and the index hit a 6-month high, so it wasn’t all bad news.
Over in Europe, the tone was generally more positive than in the US, with sovereign bonds rallying across the curve. That came as the flash Euro Area CPI print came in at +2.0% in June, exactly in line with the ECB’s target. Core was a little bit higher, at +2.3%, but that was also as expected. So that added to the sense that the ECB would still have the space to cut rates again this year. Moreover, ECB Vice President de Guindos commented that if the Euro moved above $1.20, then “that would be much more complicated. But $1.20 is perfectly acceptable.” So that again offered a potential justification for more rate cuts, particularly as a stronger appreciation for the euro would bring down import prices and dampen inflation. Indeed, the amount of further ECB cuts priced by the December meeting moved up +1.0bps on the day to 24.7bps. So that supported a bond rally across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.3bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps) all coming down. Nevertheless, equities still struggled and the STOXX 600 fell -0.21%. In addition, the Euro gained for a ninth straight session to its highest level since September 2021.
While much of the market is focused on US politics, here in the UK Prime Minister Starmer faced a tough vote on the government’s welfare reform last night. After a week of watering down the welfare cuts in the bill, the government decided at the last minute to offer more concesssions. This is remarkable for a government in its first year and with a huge majority. It potentially creates a £5bn funding black hole that may need to be closed with tax rises in the autumn, just as many countries launch tax cuts to combat the new tariff era.
Asian equity markets outside of China are on the weaker side this morning given a little more concern over trade. The KOSPI (-0.85%) stands out as the largest underperformer, while the Nikkei (-0.21%) is slipping on trade concerns although both indices have rallied back a fair amount as I’ve been typing this morning. By contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.77%) is defying the trend, with mainland Chinese equities broadly flat. S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) futures having been edging higher while this paragraph has evolved.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers will include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Cipollone and Lane, and the BoE’s Taylor. Otherwise, data releases include the ADP’s report of private payrolls in the US for June, along with the Euro Area unemployment rate for May.
2b European opening report
2c) Asian opening report
Trump threatens 35% tariff on Japan; US Senate passes Trump tax bill – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 01:30 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric.
- US President Trump said he doubts the US will have a deal with Japan but will possibly have an agreement with India.
- US Senate narrowly passed President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill; House to vote by Thursday “at the latest”.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Tuesday.
- DXY is modestly firmer, JPY narrowly lags on negative trade headlines, EUR/USD is lingering just below the 1.18 mark.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EU & Italian Unemployment Rate, US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, NBP Policy Announcement, ECB’s de Guindos, Cipollone, Lane, Lagarde & BoE’s Taylor, Supply from UK & Germany.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished mixed and underperformance was seen in the tech-heavy NDX with Technology and Communication Services the only sectors in the red amid weakness in mega-cap names, although the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones both saw gains of around 1% as participants digested several moving parts including data with a very solid JOLTS report and a slight beat for ISM Mfg. Attention was also on the Senate which narrowly passed President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill after VP Vance casted the tie-breaking vote, while there were also a slew of comments from central bank officials at the Sintra Forum including from Fed Chair Powell who did not rule out a July rate cut as he stated that he wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table.
- SPX -0.11% at 6,198, NDX -0.89% at 22,478, DJI +0.91% at 44,495, RUT +0.94% at 2,195.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said regarding the July 9th deadline that they are not thinking about extending it and doubts they’ll have a deal with Japan but will possibly have a deal with India. Furthermore, Trump suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs, while it was separately reported that the US is to handle Japan later in tariff talks and prioritising India, according to Nikkei.
- Japan’s tariff negotiator Akazawa is arranging a US visit as early as this weekend for trade talks, according to TV Asahi.
- Canada’s Ambassador to Washington said Canada still aims to lift all Trump tariffs as part of a deal with the US, according to the Globe and Mail.
- South American bloc Mercosur concluded talks for a free-trade agreement with European bloc EFTA, while the blocs are set to announce finalisation of a free trade agreement on Wednesday, according to Brazilian sources cited by Reuters.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said anybody would be better than Powell and noted they have 2 or 3 top choices for Fed Chair.
- WSJ’s Nick Timiraos said “Powell dodged a pointed question about July, declining to rule anything out four weeks before a policy meeting. His overall comments offered little to suggest there’s any effort to set the stage for a cut this month.”
- US Senate passed President Trump’s tax bill after VP Vance broke the tie to pass the Trump tax bill.
- US House Speaker Johnson said the Senate went a “little further than many of us would have preferred” in amending the bill, according to Punchbowl. It was later reported that US House Speaker Johnson said voting on the bill will be on Thursday at the latest, according to a Fox News interview.
- US House GOP leaders in a statement said the House will consider the bill immediately for final passage and put it on President Trump’s desk by the Fourth of July, according to Politico.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric.
- ASX 200 gained as strength in the mining, materials and real estate sectors offset the losses in tech and financials, but with further upside contained by disappointing Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals data.
- Nikkei 225 declined amid trade uncertainty after President Trump noted doubts about a deal with Japan and suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underpinned on return from the holiday closure as gambling stocks surged owing to the jump in Macau gaming revenue for June, while the mainland was contained after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net CNY 266.8bln drain.
- US equity futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3%) remained afloat in quiet trade after yesterday’s choppy mood and with participants awaiting key data releases, as well as the latest trade developments with the July 9th tariff deadline drawing closer.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY traded rangebound following yesterday’s indecisive mood as participants digested US data including a strong JOLTS report, comments from Fed Chair Powell who essentially kept the door open for a July cut, and the latest developments on Capitol Hill where the Senate narrowly passed Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill after VP Vance cast the tie-breaker vote. This sends the bill back to the House which is said to vote on it by Thursday “at the latest”, while participants also look ahead to data releases leading up to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday.
- EUR/USD lacked direction after oscillating through the 1.1800 level following mixed data releases and a slew of ECB rhetoric including from Lagarde who stated that the mission is not yet accomplished, but they are now through that disinflationary process and that there is a lot of uncertainty.
- GBP/USD remained confined in relatively tight parameters at the 1.3700 handle and with little impact seen from recent comments from BoE Governor Bailey who said they see signs of softening in the economy and labour market, as well as noted that the path of interest rates will continue to be gradually downwards.
- USD/JPY extended its mild rebound following yesterday’s brief dip beneath the 143.00 handle but with the recovery contained amid the downbeat risk appetite in Japan and after US President Trump suggested a 30% or 35% tariff for Japan.
- Antipodeans were ultimately flat amid the mixed risk tone and disappointing Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1546 vs exp. 7.1623 (Prev. 7.1534).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained contained after recent curve flattening and headwinds from a strong JOLTS report.
- Bund futures took a breather following the prior day’s whipsawing and with a EUR 6bln Bund issuance scheduled today.
- 10yr JGB futures conformed to the lack of overnight conviction seen in global peers in the absence of tier-1 data releases and after BoJ Governor Ueda signalled he is in no rush to raise interest rates.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures struggled for direction after the prior day’s choppy performance and with demand not helped by mixed private sector inventory data.
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.7mln (exp.-1.8mln), Distillate -3.5mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +1.9mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
- US President Trump said regarding the SPR that they will fill it up when the market is right.
- Spot gold lacked conviction amid a range-bound dollar and as participants awaited further job-related metrics ahead of Thursday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.
- Copper futures languished near this week’s trough amid the mixed risk appetite across the Asia-Pac region.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually edged higher and breached the USD 106k level to the upside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoK said regarding June CPI data that the June CPI gain was mainly due to base effects and the CPI gain is to ease if the oil and FX trend continues.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (May) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Australian Building Approvals (May) 3.2% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. -5.7%, Rev. -4.1%)
- South Korean CPI MM (Jun) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%)
- South Korean CPI Growth YY (Jun) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 1.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he will be firm with Israeli PM Netanyahu on ending the war and thinks there will be a deal next week.
- US President posted that his representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis on Gaza and Israel agreed to the necessary conditions to finalise a 60-day ceasefire during which they will work with all parties to end the war. Furthermore, the Qataris and Egyptians will deliver this final proposal and he hopes, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this deal, because it will not get better and will only get worse.
- Senior Israeli official said there is a good chance the new proposal will enable progress to proximity talks between Israel and Hamas to finalise the deal’s details and that Qatar had conveyed an updated proposal for a hostage deal and ceasefire to Israel and Hamas.
- Israel’s army said a missile was launched from Yemen towards Israeli territory and defence systems were operated to intercept the threat.
- US officials said Iran made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz last month although mines were not deployed in the strait, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister warned in a phone call with the EU foreign policy chief against a ‘destructive approach’ of several European countries, criticising their stance on escalation between Iran, Israel and the US.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that US weapons stockpiles have fallen too low, according to Politico.
OTHER
- Quad joint statement expresses serious concern over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea, while they called for the perpetrators, organisers and financiers of the April 22nd attack in Indian Kashmir to be brought to justice.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer won the vote in parliament on welfare reform; was forced to back down on certain aspects of his proposal. Savings under the plan are now expected to be closer to GBP 2bln vs. initially planned GBP 5bln.
- EU reportedly blocks Britain’s attempts to join the pan-European trading bloc, according to the FT.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
OH OH. THEY WILL BE FORCED TO RAISE PRICES AS THEY CANNOT EAT THE LOSSES FROM ABSORBING THE TARIFF COSTS
(ZEROHEDGE)
Japan Finally Admits Its Carmakers Have Been Paying All Trump Tariff Costs As Trade Talks Collapse
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 03:43 PM
Last week, we sparked a stir within the financial community when we were the first to show, clearly and without doubt, that contrary to months of false narratives by the liberal “expert” class, the costs of Trump’s tariffs are actually not borne by either US companies or US consumers, but rather by the exporting nation and its manufacturers. In this particular case, we showed that Japan’s passenger car export prices to North America had plunged since Liberation Day, making it abundantly clear that it was indeed the Toyotas and Nissans of the world that were footing the bill of those extra $20 billion or so in month tariff revenues generated by the Trump admin.
We were referencing Japan’s May trade data, which showed that car exports to the US declined 24.7% by value in May, but only 3.9% by volume, indication that Japanese carmakers are taking a hit to profits by slashing prices to maintain shipments.
Yet this data was so very much against conventional wisdom and the fake mental models the TDS crew had constructed, that virtually not a single member of the anti-Trump echo chamber believed the findings, even when our discovery was presented by Congressman Bernie Moreno to the Fed chair a few days later as evidence that contrary to his fears, US inflation isn’t soaring for the simple reason that costs are not being borne by domestic consumers (fast forward to 5 minutes in).
Yet still the TDS echo chamber would deny what was presented to them clear as day.
But fast forward to today, when we can finally lay this matter to rest.
This morning, none other than Japan’s Nikkei, admitted that for the past three months it was none other than Japan’s car industry that had been footing all the tariff-related costs following Trump’s Liberation Day announcement.
According to the Nikkei, “Japanese automakers kept prices unchanged at first after the tariffs were imposed.” It then goes on to state what our readers already knew, namely that “the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. in May fell about 20% on the year, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, indicating that Japanese automakers have been trying to absorb the cost of tariffs.”
One correction to the esteemed Japanese media outlet: not “trying”, but succeeding, simply because automakers have had no choice: sure, they could have hiked prices long ago but the outcome would be a collapse in demand for Japanese cars, with market share taken over by domestic producers and other, cheaper, foreign automakers.
All of this is taking place as trade talk negotiations between the US and Japan are going nowhere, and in fact, Tokyo had gotten so emboldened by the theatrical standoff between Washington and Beijing, it thought it could get away with simply demanding away US tariffs. As a result, despite weeks of negotiation, the US-Japan teams have gotten nowhere with just one week left to go until the July 9 deadline, which is why Trump lashed out – in a very polite fashion – at the “spoiled” mercantilist Japan, which refuses to make any compromises.
“We dealt with Japan. I’m not sure if we’re going to make a deal. I doubt it with Japan — they’re very tough. You have to understand, they’re spoiled. I love Japan. I really like the new prime minister, too. Abe was one of my closest friends, as you know,” Trump said on Tuesday, referring to former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe who died in a 2022 assassination, explaining why there likely won’t be a trade deal with Japan.
Trump noted this week that Japan has a rice crisis that has elevated prices, arguing the country should turn to the U.S. for rice.
“But they and others are so spoiled from having ripped us off for 30, 40 years that it’s really hard for them to make a deal. You know, it’s very hard. As an example with Japan, they won’t take rice, and yet they desperately need rice,” he said. “They won’t take any cars, but they’ll sell millions. So, we told them, ‘Sorry you can’t do that.’”
The president said Japan will likely get a letter that would set the tariff rate ahead of the July 8 expiration of the 90-day pause on country-specific tariffs. Trump has said he will send letters soon to trading partners who haven’t struck deals.
“So what I’m going to do is I’ll write them a letter, say, ‘We thank you very much. We know you can’t do the kind of things that we need, and therefore you’ll pay a 30 percent, 35 percent or whatever the numbers that we determine,’” he said. “Because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan, as you know and it’s very unfair to the American people.”
In other words, Trump has effectively assured Japan would be hit with across-the-board tariffs of up to 35% on its exports to the US, beyond the 24% penciled in on July 9.
In response, Japan prime minister Ishiba said that American cars “are a tough sell in Japan” adding that his government needs to discuss with the US how to boost car imports from America.
“We can’t sell left-hand drive, huge, fuel-inefficient cars made in the US,” Ishiba said Wednesday, and he probably wasn’t wrong. “We’ll discuss with the US how to produce better products and bring them into Japan, while considering Japan’s safety.”
In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump lashed out at Japan over cars: “So we give Japan no cars. They won’t take our cars, right? And yet we take millions and millions of their cars into the United States. It’s not fair.”
So what does Japan do now? Well, after eating billions of dollars in losses for months, the local carmakers are literally on the verge of collapse, and they are now trial ballooning that they have no choice but to do what everyone assumed they would do from day one: raise prices.
According to the Nikkei, Subaru and Mitsubishi Motors have started to raise prices while Mazda Motor is exploring doing so (none of this is actually reflected stateside yet). According to the Nikkei, “they have little choice but to raise prices, having reached their limit in absorbing cost increases.”
Which is precisely what we warned back in March when we said that “Japanese Carmakers Face Catastrophic Profit Hit From Trump’s Auto Tariffs.” Well, the profit hit is here, and in a few weeks it will translate into one of the biggest recessions Japan has ever faces in modern history, forcing the BOJ to unleash an unprecedented stimulus, while pushing rates back to zero or negative.
And since Tokyo will be back to resorting to the oldest trick in the book, namely sending the yen crashing to offset the tariff costs – we fully expect USDJPY to hit 160 in the next 6 months – Trump is about to get a whole lot angrier at Japan and its soon-to-crash currency, at which point the world will finally move on from trade wars to currency wars and capital controls.
3C CHINA
CHINA/IRAN/USA
(Wu)
The Israeli war exposed the limits on Chinese influence in the Middle East
(WU)
How Iran War Exposed Limits Of Chinese Influence In Middle East
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,
The world had a moment of clarity during the Israel–Iran conflict.
For years, analysts have noted that China is closing in on the United States as a peer competitor, whether in terms of high-tech industries, naval fleets, or the size of its diplomatic corps.
That power shift seemed to have also played out in the Middle East, a region where the United States has traditionally held significant influence.
Two years ago, Beijing brokered the normalization of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Later the same year, the China-led BRICS bloc, designed to counterbalance the U.S.-led Western democracies, admitted four new members from the region: Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The bloc was formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009 and expanded to include South Africa in 2010.
However, the action of the United States—and the inaction of China—during the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict revealed that the power gap between Beijing and Washington remains sizable.
The United States joined its ally Israel in the conflict on June 21 by attacking key Iranian nuclear sites with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.
Two days later, President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. The truce appears to be holding so far.
By contrast, Beijing’s support for Iran remained largely rhetorical.
The Chinese regime condemned Israel and criticized the United States over the strikes on Iran. It also released joint statements with member states of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China- and Russia-led security grouping, expressing “grave concern” that the attacks on Iran violated international law.
The revelation of the power gap between the United States and China means that countries will move closer into Washington’s orbit, according to Yeh Yao-yuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in Houston.
That means Middle Eastern countries will shift from a pro-Beijing position to a neutral stance in the contest between China and the United States as the world moves into two camps led by the two powers, he told The Epoch Times.
Beijing is keenly aware that the U.S. focus is on Asia, particularly China, according to Christopher Balding, a senior fellow at the UK-based Henry Jackson Society. The Chinese regime deliberately kept a low profile during the Israel–Iran military conflict, he said.
“The more that they can keep the U.S. working on other non-China issues, I think that they see it as better for them,” Balding, also a contributor to The Epoch Times, told the publication.
According to China expert Alexander Liao, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is uncertain about its next steps.
“Beijing has realized that its existing assessment of the world—that the East is rising and the West is declining—doesn’t hold anymore,” Liao told The Epoch Times.
“Should they change the course of their strategic directions? If so, how? They haven’t made up their mind yet.”
Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh (C) attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers’ meeting in Qingdao, China, on June 26, 2025. The SCO’s nine official members include China, India, and Russia. China’s support has helped Iran sustain its economy and nuclear program despite decades of U.S. and UN sanctions. Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images
Iran’s Role in China’s Plan
China’s support is the main reason Iran could sustain its economy and nuclear enrichment program despite decades of sanctions by the United States and the United Nations. The International Atomic Energy Agency verified a few days before the Israel–Iran conflict that Iran had 400 kilograms of enriched uranium.
Iran holds high geopolitical value to China. Its location, linking East and West, has made it an important node for the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative. This foreign policy platform presents itself as a global infrastructure development program.
Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping visited Iran in 2016, during which the two countries formed a so-called comprehensive strategic partnership.
In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year agreement. China committed $400 billion in investments in telecom, banking, ports, and other infrastructure in Iran. In return, Iran agreed to supply China with oil.
Today, China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil. Last year, the daily volume was about 1.5 million barrels, according to market intelligence company Kpler.
To circumvent sanctions, the oil trade between China and Iran is typically conducted in Chinese yuan or as a barter. This reduces trade volumes transacted in U.S. dollars and aligns with Beijing’s ambition to de-dollarize and increase the importance of the yuan in global trade.
The Rise of NATO
During this year’s NATO summit in The Hague, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic products (GDPs) by 2035.
That means the NATO military spending will more than double, given that members on average spent 2 percent of their GDPs in 2024.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, NATO members accounted for about 55 percent of the total $2.7 trillion in global military expenditure. With NATO’s double spending, the ratio is expected to increase to roughly 70 percent.
NATO also reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to Article 5, which states that any attack on a member country is an attack on all.
On June 25, the military alliance also released a statement, along with its Indo-Pacific partners, stating that “the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is interconnected.” The four partners are Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.
The Chinese regime is monitoring NATO developments closely.
NATO heads of state and government pose for an official photo at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. Among other matters, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their GDPs by 2035. A day later, China’s foreign ministry criticized the move as well as NATO’s increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Omar Havana/Getty Images
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in a post on social media platform X on June 26, criticized the spending boost and the alliance’s growing interest in the Asia-Pacific region.
Liao considers it “very likely” that democracies will expand their regional security alliances to one that’s global in scope.
“If such a significant expansion happens, it will be lethal to the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.
The expansion would mean that the Article 5-style commitment would cover Indo-Pacific nations, Liao said. He said he believes that the United States is poised to expand the current security alliance; it’s just waiting for the right time and opportunity.
“Any conflict with South Korea or Japan will evolve to a conflict with a group that accounts for 70 percent of global military spending,” he said. “This will make China’s goal of taking over Taiwan very challenging.”
Amy K. Mitchell, a founding partner at geopolitical consultancy Kilo Alpha Strategies, said that there’s a “very strong potential” that Trump will try to establish a NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific.
That would be a “very big legacy project for President Trump,” she told The Epoch Times.
For now, she sees the president himself and his unpredictability as the main deterrent to China.
“The Chinese Communist Party is probably rethinking how it’s going to handle the administration,” Mitchell said.
China still faces uncertainty in the ongoing trade war with the United States.
Beijing announced new controls on two fentanyl precursors on June 20, a day after a rare meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue. Wang told Perdue that the regime was open to collaboration on curbing narcotics and illegal immigration, according to Chinese state media reports.
The move was aimed at lifting the 20 percent fentanyl-related U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The current tariff level on China is about 50 percent, which is the cumulative rate composed of fentanyl tariffs, 10 percent reciprocal tariffs, and existing levies from the Biden administration.
A worker moves pieces of steel machinery at a manufacturing company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on June 16, 2025. China’s factory output rose less than expected in May amid continued uncertainty from its trade war with the United States. STR/AFP via Getty Images
China signed an additional trade agreement with the United States last week, detailing the terms negotiated in Geneva in May. For now, the 20 percent U.S. tariff tied to China’s role in fentanyl trafficking will remain.
Beijing’s slow walk on exporting rare earth elements has been a focal point in rounds of negotiations between the two countries.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry on June 27 stated that it would “review and approve eligible export applications for controlled items in accordance with the law” as a part of the framework agreement. While it did not explicitly mention rare earths, the statement was made in response to an unnamed reporter’s question on rare earths exports.
Rare earths are essential for producing permanent magnets, a must-have component of modern manufacturing. They are also critical to military and defense hardware. China’s export licenses only cover civilian purposes and need to be renewed every six months.
Balding said China is likely to hold more tightly onto its near-monopoly control over rare earth supply.
“In addition to demonstrating its power over the global economy, China does not want to be helping the U.S. military prepare when each side is focusing more and more on how to fight each other,” he said.
end
4.European affairs
GERMANY
becoming a failed state:
(zerohedge/Remix))
“You Don’t Have To Show Your ID Anywhere” – Police Union & AfD Rage s 1 In 5 Illegals Now Simply Flying Into Germany
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 02:00 AM
In the past 12 months, the German Federal Police have identified 12,858 illegal migrants who entered Germany by air, a significant number that is on the rise. Now, migrants are increasingly choosing simply to fly into Germany instead of dealing with the long ordeal of crossing multiple borders in dangerous conditions.
This increase in migrants flying into Germany jumped after Germany tightened border controls.
In May of this year alone, at least 977 illegal entries were recorded using air travel to enter Germany, accounting for over 20 percent of all identified illegal border crossings.
However, the true number of such crossings is likely much higher, as foreign nationals traveling within the Schengen area are not required to show identification. As a result, they are often only discovered long after they have left the airport, making it impossible to turn them back.
“It would be consistent to also notify the Schengen air borders,” said Heiko Teggatz, a board member of the German Police Union (DPolG).
“If the smugglers aren’t completely stupid, they’ll simply bring their people from other Schengen states to Germany by plane. Today, you can easily book a plane ticket within the Schengen area, and you generally don’t have to show your ID anywhere.”
All of this information came from a government response from Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) after Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP Gottfried Curio, the party’s domestic policy spokesperson, launched an inquiry.
Dobrindt was forced to acknowledge that the tightened controls “refer exclusively to the land borders,” meaning no illegal migrants were turned back at airports.
This trend of illegal entry by plane has intensified since the new federal government instructed officials to begin rejecting asylum seekers at internal borders.
Teggatz confirmed this “increase in secondary migration via airports,” noting that “Medium-sized commercial airports like Hanover are particularly affected.”
Despite hundreds of officers being deployed at German airports, checks are almost exclusively conducted on flights from outside the Schengen area. That means if a migrant makes it to Greece and manages to get on a plane to Germany, there is little chance he will be checked.
Dobrindt, like his predecessor, Nancy Faeser (SPD), has reported rejections of migrants coming into Germany, but only from land borders. It remains unclear why airports were not included in tightened border measures.
end
UK
a very important read!! British gilt market in trouble as they are spending too much
(zerohedge)
‘Teary’ UK Chancellor Reeves Is Safe For Now But The Gilt Market Maybe Not
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 08:59 AM
Ten-year gilt yields just spiked by more than 10 bps on rumors that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves was about to resign or be ousted.
The pressure on Reeves comes after Starmer — in a dramatic climbdown on Tuesday — abandoned controversial plans to restrict benefit payments to some disabled people, a reform pushed by the chancellor which would have saved some £5 billion ($6.9 billion), and was key to meeting her self-imposed budgetary rules at her spring statement in March.
Bloomberg reports that the welfare reform package was widely opposed by Labour MPs, with more than 120 originally threatening to vote against the policy in parliament.
Even after the last-ditch decision to drop the most contentious changes, 49 Labour MPs still voted against the bill on Tuesday, a sign of the scale of discontent.
The rebellion and U-turn are a serious blow to Starmer’s political authority as he approaches the first anniversary of Labour’s election win last July.
The decision to ditch the welfare reforms also leaves Reeves facing a widening fiscal hole of more than £6 billion to fill, including the need to fund a separate about-turn on a plan to cut winter fuel payments to pensioners.
As Bloomberg further reports, Starmer’s press secretary, Sophie Nazemi, quickly clarified his position to reporters after PMQs, saying that Reeves was going nowhere.
“She has the prime minister’s full backing,” Nazemi said.
“He’s said it repeatedly.”
The combination of Starmer’s failure to back his chancellor, and Reeves’ tears, prompted speculation about her position until the Treasury clarified that the reason for her demeanor was a personal issue.
“It’s a personal matter, which – as you would expect – we are not going to get into,” the Treasury said in a statement.
“The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.”
But, as Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, the rapidity of the move shows the precariousness of the UK’s debt situation.
The government had planned a series of cuts to welfare and sickness benefits, but had to drastically scale them back in the face of huge opposition from backbench MPs.
The watered down changes are estimated to deliver no savings overall.
A new chancellor might drop Reeves’ commitment to not borrow more for day-to-day activities, or increase spending, justifying a deepening concern for the gilt market.
Cable tumbled…
Yields are still near their day’s highs, while a risk measure for the UK, based on asset swaps, country bond spreads and basis swaps, has widened notably.
Keep watching.
END
SPAIN/RUSSIA
such hypocrits:
(Remix)
After Spain Imports Record Amount Of Diesel From Morocco, Experts Point To Russian Sources
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 08:05 AM
A record-breaking increase of diesel imports from Morocco to Spain has raised suspicions within the energy industry that some of the fuel may be of Russian origin. In just two months, from March to April 2025, Spain imported 123,000 tons of diesel from Morocco, more than the entire historical total.
The shipments are raising questions about how honest the EU’s energy policy is, which claims it is working to cut off Russian energy but in reality, is often sourcing it through middle countries.
According to Spanish newspaper El Pais, there are a number of factors that raise the likelihood that Spain is buying Russian diesel through the backdoor.
Besides the sudden increase in diesel from Morocco, a country that Spain does not typically import substantial amounts of diesel from, industry sources say Morocco did not impose sanctions on Russian energy resources after the invasion of Ukraine.
El Pais noted that since the beginning of 2025, Morocco has imported over 1 million tons of Russian diesel, accounting for 25 percent of its total imports. It could also be that Morocco is importing diesel from other countries that are also importing Russian diesel and repackaging it to hide its true source.
Experts believe the diesel is sent to Morocco and there it is blended with other diesel oils, making it untraceable back to its source.
The suspicion is that this fuel is being imported by Rabat, the capital of Morocco, at a lower cost and then re-exported to Spain with a North African country’s certification to mask its origin.
This practice is being investigated by the Spanish government, which has been trying to prove the Russian origin of the fuel since at least 2023. However, the government has so far been unable to provide definitive proof.
El Pais also pointed out that since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Spain’s diesel imports have increased from other countries that were not previous suppliers, including Singapore and Turkey.
This follows a 2024 investigation into a “Diesel mafia,” whose fraud activities were estimated at €1.9 billion, involving oil imported from sanctioned countries like Iran, Russia, and Syria, with altered certificates of origin from Turkey and Morocco.
Notably, many EU countries have criticized Hungary and Slovakia for stating the EU still needs Russian energy. Meanwhile, many of these EU countries either continue to directly import Russian energy, or in the case of Spain, are likely importing it through middle countries.
To add insult to injury, El Pais notes that Russia’s economy remains red hot. Despite predictions Russia would collapse under sanctions, the IMF noted that Russia grew by 4.1 percent in 2024, which is more than the United States, the EU, and Spain. The global average was 3.3 percent.
Russia’s wartime economy is also driving its economic engine, but the BBC also writes that despite sanctions, oil tankers continue to flow to India and China, which is driving significant revenue into Russia’s coffers.
end
ECB
(Kolbe)
at neutral rate: but the real problem is the crisis in the Eurozone e,g, Germany and other failed states
(Kolbe)
ECB Ends Easing Cycle, But The Eurozone Crisis Is Just Beginning
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 05:00 AM
By Thomas Kolbe
The European Central Bank has reached the end of its rate cycle – and has become ensnared in the very problems to which it has significantly contributed. In Sintra, this was all but hidden behind a facade of central banker utopia.
The annual Sintra conference, just west of Lisbon, serves the ECB much as Jackson Hole does for the Federal Reserve. It’s a moment to review, to look ahead, and to tie the past year’s monetary policy into a broader political narrative. For ECB President Christine Lagarde, that narrative is easily summed up: after eight cuts, rates now rest at two percent; inflation hovers around the two-percent target; employment across the eurozone remains stable; and a fresh debt crisis is nowhere in sight.
That is the essence of Lagarde’s Sintra address—designed to convey one message: everything is under control. Even uncertainties such as Trump-era trade volatility, geopolitical upheavals, or the collapse of German industry are said not to derail the ECB’s set course. Following the market flood during the lockdowns, things are now deemed normal—markets “swing” around their equilibrium. In central bank parlance: they’ve found the “neutral rate.”
The Chimera of the Neutral Rate
The “neutral rate” is the holy grail of central banking mystique. When policy makers feel secure, and media campaigns successfully mask the erosion of fiat currency, it becomes the mantra. In this worldview, the ECB’s policy rate and some theoretical, consolidated market rate align—not by chance, but by design. Even before Lagarde’s closing remarks, ECB Executive Board members Joachim Nagel and Philip Lane had laid the groundwork all through June, repeatedly sending the “neutral-rate” message.
That message? That they have balanced inflationary and deflationary forces and steered the eurozone back onto a growth trajectory. Let’s skip debates over manipulated inflation stats and dramatically understated unemployment figures. These neutral-rate narratives are nothing more than central-bank fairy tales from One Thousand and One Nights—prepackaged press releases meant to evoke sovereignty. Economic processes don’t reduce to such simplistic frameworks. But that’s precisely not the point: the neutral-rate story is a sedative—for governments and markets alike.
The Fiscal Original Sin
The tale of the ECB as guardian of monetary stability is a relic of Bundesbank days. That era is long gone. Central banks worldwide, dragged into political-fiscal entanglements during the last debt crisis 15 years ago, have since become dependent. During the lockdowns alone, the ECB’s PEPP absorbed €1.85 trillion of eurozone sovereign debt—and today still holds roughly a third of that mountain of obligations.
Today, the ECB’s sole goal is to keep those sovereign debt-stacks liquid—buying up bonds shunned by the market to maintain the illusion that public debt, generous welfare, and Keynesian interventionism are all sustainably reconcilable.
Eurozone governments have long relied on external liquidity. With public debt averaging 100 percent of GDP, many member states would be insolvent without the ECB’s backstop. That would have consequences—not just for markets, but for social cohesion, internal stability, and the self-image of an EU-Europe built on oversized welfare motors that offer citizens a false sense of security and dangerously misjudge public capacity.
A withdrawal of the ECB from this nexus of fiscal irresponsibility, monetary support, and political overreach is thus unthinkable. The central bank is no longer just a guardian of the currency—it is the stabilizer of an eroding social model. Through indirect means and backdoor channels, it is underwriting pensions, welfare budgets, bureaucratic cogs—and obscuring how fragile the whole edifice has become.
The ECB is the last mortar holding that crumbling structure together. Remove it, and the house of cards collapses instantly. Which is why Lagarde and cohort must preserve the illusion of a steerable eurozone.
The Facts Tell a Different Story
Beyond the gloss of Sintra—in the real world of data—the eurozone is in serious crisis. Industry continues to shrink, and construction is in a deep recession. Over 50 percent of firms cite insufficient orders. Since 2021, German industry alone has cut 217,000 jobs—and by year’s end will lose another 100,000. Deindustrialization is advancing. Production is being moved abroad. Capital is fleeing, and productivity has stalled for eight years running.
The result: countries’ tax bases are eroding. Revenues fall and welfare costs rise, pushing debt burdens higher. Without genuine reforms, the eurozone risks a debt crisis that will once again force the ECB to serve as lender of last resort.
Years of zero interest have immersed the eurozone in the sweet poison of cheap credit. Now, subvention-dependent firms are collapsing under real positive rates. That’s “zombie economy.” And the latest casualty of green industrial planning—Northvolt—is just the latest to close its doors, a consequence of centrally managed economic policy.
Fed Holds Tough
Making matters worse: across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve stands firm on its consolidation path, keeping rates at 4.5 percent—well above other major central banks. The U.S. is clearly prepared to accept a positive market rate, giving its economy room to purge unproductive elements. This lets productive capital reposition and fuel a fresh investment cycle. With tax cuts, energy deregulation, and rolling back green agendas, the U.S. is becoming a capital magnet—one that European economies can only envy.
In Washington, the view is clear: a period of pain brings greater rewards. While the U.S. equips itself administratively, technically, and innovatively for the digital age, EU-Europe stages a competition in ever-expanding welfare plans—rent caps, social handouts, green subsidies: consumption decreed and regulated to substitute for the productive machinery of revenue generation.
Europe has become addicted to welfare-state subventionitis—sticking to a hyper-statist model to defer social and economic pain. And always in the wings: the ECB and its fatal money press. How long this can last, only time will tell. But market tensions are mounting. The day when those tensions trigger a seismic shift, shaking the tectonic plates of the economy into new alignment, looms ever closer.
end
GERMANY
Robert H
they just cannot be assimiliated
IMPORTED BLOODBATH GERMANY ~ VIDEO – Michael Walsh Stories and Books
Crazy business
https://michaelwalshwriter.com/2025/07/01/imported-bloodbath-germany-video/
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/IRAN
EU says negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program should ‘restart as soon as possible’
Ahead of meeting Netanyahu, US president says he hopes for ceasefire deal next week * After missile attack, Katz threatens Houthis: ‘Yemen will be treated like Tehran’
- 10min agoAfter rocket fire from Gaza, IDF issues evacuation order for parts of Khan Younis
- 29min agoMore than 10,000 join opposition rally in Istanbul
- 55min agoArab diplomats deny Qatar has submitted a new hostage deal proposal
- 1hr agoAustralian nurses who said they’d kill Israeli patients handed 2-year ban
EU says negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program should ‘restart as soon as possible’
By AFP
This handout picture provided by the Iranian foreign ministry shows Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the funeral of Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami and other military commanders, who were killed in Israeli strikes, on June 28, 2025. (Iranian Foreign Ministry / AFP)
The EU’s top diplomat tells Iran’s foreign minister that Brussels is willing to facilitate a return to negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program after US and Israeli strikes.
“Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program should restart as soon as possible,” and “cooperation” with the International Atomic Energy Agency must resume, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas writes on X after a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “The EU is ready to facilitate this.”
Kallas further warns Tehran that “any threats to pull out of the non-proliferation treaty don’t help to lower tensions.”
The call came after Araghchi ruled out a quick resumption of talks with the United States and said Tehran will first need assurances it will not be attacked again.
The United States and Iran were holding nuclear talks when Israel hit Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure. The United States joined the campaign by bombing three nuclear sites — Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan — on June 21.
END
ISRAEL IRAN
this is troubling: an Iranian cell in Syria?
(JerusalemPost)
IDF soldiers arrest members of an Iranian terror cell operating in southern Syria
The military said they received intelligence from interrogations in recent weeks, leading soldiers to carry out nighttime operations and arrest several terrorists.
IDF soldiers operating in southern Syria to apprehend terrorists in an Iranian terror cell, June 2, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 2, 2025 09:47Updated: JULY 2, 2025 10:20
IDF soldiers arrested members of an Iranian terrorist cell while operating in southern Syria, the military said on Wednesday.
The military said they received intelligence from interrogations in recent weeks, leading soldiers to carry out nighttime operations and arrest several terrorists.
During the operation, soldiers located weapons in the areas where the terrorists were arrested, including several firearms and grenades, the IDF said.
One of the commanders in the field said that they are “working day and night to ensure that the residents of the Golan Heights can sleep in peace.”
“We will not allow terrorist organizations or hostile elements to establish themselves in this area.”
Ongoing IDF presence, operations in southern Syria
Earlier this week, the IDF’s 210th Division arrested several suspects in southern Syria.
The division’s forces were also deployed from the Mount Hermon area to the “border triangle,” which refers to the borders of Israel, Syria, and Jordan.
In May, the division uncovered combat equipment, including several rocket shells and landmines in southern Syria, the military said.
This is a developing story.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL USA
Not good: Iran suspends coooperation with the IAEA
(Times of Israel)
Iran enacts law suspending cooperation with IAEA, state media says
By AgenciesToday, 10:14 am
This handout picture made available by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi, center, during a tour of the organization’s headquarters in Tehran on April 17, 2025. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has given final approval to a law passed by parliament last month to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Iranian state media reports.
“Masoud Pezeshkian promulgated the law suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency,” state TV says, meaning the measure drawn up in the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war last month is now in effect.
END
IRAN
Finally they admit: their nuclear sites are seriously damaged by the bombing
(JerusalemPost)
Iran says Fordo, other nuke sites ‘seriously damaged’ by bombings
By Reuters and ToI StaffToday, 9:06 am
The US bombing of Iran’s key Fordo nuclear site has “seriously and heavily damaged” the facility, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says in an interview with CBS News.
“No one exactly knows what has transpired in Fordo. That being said, what we know so far is that the facilities have been seriously and heavily damaged,” Araghchi says in the interview, excerpts of which were previously released.
“The Atomic Energy Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran… is currently undertaking evaluation and assessment, the report of which will be submitted to the government,” he says.
On Tuesday, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman told a press conference that the country’s nuclear sites had sustained “serious damage” in the Israeli and US bombing campaigns, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news outlet reports.
However, the Washington Post reported on Sunday that intercepted Iranian communications downplayed the extent of damage caused by US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, citing four people familiar with classified intelligence circulating within the US government.
President Donald Trump has said the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but US officials acknowledge it will take time to form a complete assessment of the damage caused by the strikes.
END
IRAN/IAEA/USA/ET AL
“Unacceptable” – US Officials Slam Iran’s Suspending Cooperation With UN Nuclear Watchdog
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 02:20 PM
Update (1430ET): That didn’t take long.
US State Department officials have reportedly said that Iran’s suspension of cooperation with IAEA is “unacceptable“, adding that Iran must cooperate fully without further delay.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric also chimed in, saying that Iran’s suspension of its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is “obviously concerning”
“We’ve seen the official decision, which is obviously concerning. I think the Secretary-General has been very consistent in his call for Iran to cooperate with the IAEA, and, frankly, for all countries to work closely with the IAEA on nuclear issues,” he told reporters.
In an official move which could bring Tehran into further conflict with the United States, Israel, and the West, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has signed a law which breaks all cooperation with the the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), following Israeli and US large-scale strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last month.
“Masoud Pezeshkian promulgated the law suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Iranian state TV confirmed Wednesday.
The announcement comes on the heels of Iranian parliament’s initial decision last week to halt cooperation with the nuclear watchdog and monitoring body, a move triggered by Israel’s surprise attack on the Islamic Republic which began on June 13.
Nearly two weeks of war followed, capped by the Trump-ordered B-2 bomber raids and huge attacks on the three key nuclear facilities of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
Under the new parliamentary resolution, IAEA inspectors will need approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council before any access to nuclear facilities is given.
The IAEA merely said in response that it was “aware of these reports” of Tehran suspending cooperation and is waiting for formal communication from Iranian leaders.
Earlier this week, Iran’s foreign minister declared that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, whom Iranian officials have fiercely criticized for not condemning the Israeli and US attacks, as Persona non grata.
There was also this recent alarming diplomatic fiasco centered on Grossi and threats by an Iranian newspaper:
Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations said Sunday that Tehran poses no threat to the head of the UN nuclear watchdog nor its inspectors, after an Iranian newspaper claimed that Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi was an Israeli spy and called for him to be executed.
Iran’s ultra-conservative Kayhan newspaper recently alleged that unspecified documents showed Grossi to be an Israeli spy.
“It should therefore be officially announced that he will be tried and executed upon arrival in Iran for spying for the Mossad and participating in the murder of the oppressed people of our country,” the newspaper said.
“No, there is not any threat” against the inspectors or the director general, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani said in an interview with US broadcaster CBS. The ambassador said inspectors in Iran were “in safe conditions.”
Just the day prior to Israel’s surprise assault on Iran using dozens of warplanes, Tehran officials were outraged with a rejected a June 12 resolution from the IAEA board that accused Iran of failing to meet its nuclear obligations.
Iranian authorities then alleged this resolution served as one of the “pretexts” used to justify the Israeli and later US attacks on its nuclear facilities, which Tehran has maintained is solely for nuclear energy purposes.
ISRAEL HAMAS
Jerusalempost)
Trump claims Israel agreed to conditions for 60-day Gaza ceasefire
“I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he continued.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump shake hands following a meeting in the White House, in Washington, April 7, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN MOHATT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 2, 2025 01:32Updated: JULY 2, 2025 04:16
US President Donald Trump claimed that “Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War,” in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday night.
In the post, Trump confirmed that his “Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza.”
“The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal,” he added.
“I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he continued.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer informed US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff that Israel has accepted the proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal and is ready to begin close talks with Hamas to finalize the agreement, a senior Israeli official said on Wednesday.
Earlier on Tuesday, Trump had told reporters that he expects to have a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by next week when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the US.
Qatar submitted a mediation proposal to both Israel and Hamas based on the Witkoff framework, with minor adjustments and additions, according to a source familiar with the details who spoke to The Jerusalem Post earlier on Tuesday.
Trump’s Israel-Iran ceasefire currently holding
Trump successfully arranged a ceasefire between Israel and Iran last Tuesday, following 12 days of intense Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iranian ballistic missile and drone launches towards Israel.
Amichai Stein and Walla contributed to this report.
end
same story as above
(zerohedge)
Trump Says Israel Agrees To 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire, Urges Hamas To Accept
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 11:00 PM
President Trump said Tuesday that Israel has agreed on terms for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and warned Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen.
Trump announced the development as he prepares to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks at the White House on Monday. The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to broker a ceasefire and hostage agreement and bring about an end to the war in Gaza.
“My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War,” Trump wrote, saying the Qataris and Egyptians would deliver the final proposal.
“I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better – IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he said.
Trump’s promise that it was his best and final offer may find a sceptical audience with Hamas. Even before the expiration of the war’s longest ceasefire in March, Trump has repeatedly issued dramatic ultimatums to pressure Hamas to agree to longer pauses in the fighting that would see the release of more hostages and a return of more aid to Gaza’s civilian populace.
Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer was in Washington on Tuesday for talks with senior administration officials to discuss a potential Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters. Dermer was expected to meet with US Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Earlier on Tuesday, Trump repeated his hope for forging an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal next week.
Asked if it was time to put pressure on Netanyahu to get a ceasefire deal done, Trump said the Israeli prime minister was ready to come to an agreement.
“He wants to,” Trump said of Netanyahu in an exchange with reporters while visiting a new immigration detention facility in Florida. “I think we’ll have a deal next week.”
Talks between Israel and Hamas have repeatedly faltered over a major sticking point – whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire agreement. About 50 hostages remain captive in Gaza, with less than half believed to be alive.
The development came as over 150 international charities and humanitarian groups called on Tuesday for disbanding a controversial Israeli- and US-backed system to distribute aid in Gaza because of chaos and deadly violence against Palestinians seeking food at its sites.
The joint statement by groups including Oxfam, Save the Children and Amnesty International followed the killings of at least 10 Palestinians who were seeking desperately needed food, witnesses and health officials said. Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes killed at least 37 in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, according to Nasser Hospital.
“Tents, tents they are hitting with two missiles?” asked Um Seif Abu Leda, whose son was killed in the strikes. Mourners threw flowers on the body bags.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS/WEDNESDAY MID MORNING
IDF troops destroy Hamas terror tunnel junction connecting Gaza cities
Troops destroyed a 2.5 kilometer-long and 39 kilometers deep tunnel route which connected Khan Yunis to Rafah.
IDF troops operate in southern Gaza, July 2, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 2, 2025 15:22Updated: JULY 2, 2025 15:48
The IDF’s Kfir Brigade, under the command of the 36th Division, destroyed a crucial tunnel junction that connected a series of tunnels in southern Gaza’s Khan Yunis, the military said Wednesday.
Troops also destroyed a 2.5 kilometer-long and 39 kilometers deep tunnel route which connected Khan Yunis to Rafah.
The Kfir Brigade additionally seized numerous weapons from the tunnels.
Close-quarter encounters with terrorists
The IDF announced on Monday that the Paratroopers Brigade, also in the 36th Division, engaged in close-quarter combat with terrorists with the support of the Air Force, and dismantled hundreds of sites used by terrorist organizations in Khan Yunis, including tunnel shafts, operational centers, and long-term hideouts.
Troops had previously destroyed three kilometers of tunnel routes used by Hamas terrorists.
In addition to the 36th Division, the 98th, 99th, and 162nd Divisions are also operating within Gaza in the northern and central sectors.
On Tuesday, a rocket was fired from within Gaza and triggered sirens within its border communities before being intercepted by the IDF.
END
Israeli forces say they killed two Hamas operatives responsible for deaths of 7 IDF soldiers in Gaza last week
By Stav Levaton FollowToday, 8:04 pm
The IDF and Shin Bet announce that they have killed two Hamas operatives responsible for the deaths of seven Israeli soldiers in a deadly ambush in Khan Younis on June 24.
According to a joint statement, an Israeli Air Force drone, directed by the Shin Bet and the IDF’s 188th Armored Brigade, struck and killed Mosaab Yasser Abdallah Galban and Abd al-Latif Mousa Hagag Barbakh in the Khan Younis area last Thursday.
The two were involved in the ambush that killed seven IDF soldiers: Lt. Matan Shai Yashinovski, 21; Staff Sgt. Ronel Ben-Moshe, 20; Staff Sgt. Niv Radia, 20; Sgt. Ronen Shapiro, 19; Sgt. Shahar Manoav, 21; Sgt. Maayan Baruch Pearlstein, 20; and Staff Sgt. Alon Davidov, 21.
END
GAZA/CLANS/HAMAS/
Threats or nuisance? After years of cooperation, some Gaza clans rise up against Hamas
As the war drags on and aid supplies are increasingly precious, large, heavily armed clans in the southern Strip are openly defying the terror group. Could they be viable partners for Israel?
By Nurit Yohanan FollowToday, 4:53 pm
A gunman from the Abu Ziyad clan, who appeared in a video in which the family demanded that Hamas hand over operatives responsible for killing one of its relatives. June 2025. (screen capture: Facebook, 27a clause of the copyright law)
A powerful Gaza family exchanged fire with Hamas last week at a major hospital in Khan Younis, in a conflict that ended with burned vehicles and destroyed equipment.
Hamas and the Barbakh clan blamed each other for the fight at Nasser Hospital: While Hamas claims it acted against a Barbakh relative who had stolen aid — and blamed the clan for damaging the hospital — anti-Hamas media outlets allege that Hamas operatives took refuge inside Nasser after murdering a clan member.
The clash then morphed into a war of words. The Barbakh family lashed out against the terror group in a post on a popular anti-Hamas Telegram channel, alleging that since Hamas’s 2007 takeover of the territory, “the Barbakh family has paid the price for its positions and has been subjected to Hamas repression. The time for a response has come.”
The family is not alone: For the first time in nearly two decades of Hamas rule in Gaza, large, heavily armed clans are openly defying the terror group, through both public statements and armed confrontations. The opposition marks a serious challenge to Hamas’s ability to maintain local control, and comes amid the group’s declining military strength and waning popularity among Gazans as the nearly 21-month-old war with Israel drags on.
Israel has suggested that the clans could supplant Hamas rule in Gaza, but this is not necessarily a positive prospect: Even as they’ve begun to publicly counter Hamas, the families have continued to harshly criticize Israel and distance themselves from it.
Despite growing perceptions of armed clans gaining influence in parts of Gaza, Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University, told The Times of Israel that the phenomenon remains geographically limited to the southern Gaza Strip and does not yet pose a serious threat to Hamas.
“At this stage, I see the clans as a nuisance and a challenge to Hamas — but not a real threat to its rule, and certainly not a coherent or viable partner for Israel for the day after,” he said.
“I still see Hamas as the dominant force in Gaza, particularly through its special unit ‘Saham,’ which is responsible for maintaining public order, especially in the northern Strip,” he said. “In the south, where the IDF has more control, we’re seeing more of these clan-related phenomena.”
Destruction at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis following an exchange of fire between a Gaza clan and Hamas operatives. June 26, 2025. (screen capture: Twitter, 27a clause of the copyright law)
A core source of identity
The Gaza clans consist of dozens of extended families whose total populations range from hundreds to thousands of members, though exact numbers are hard to come by. The clans, which are typically linked by distant kinship and shared patriarchal lineage, serve as crucial sources of economic and social support. For many, clan identity surpasses the national Palestinian cause.
The families are often concentrated in particular areas of the Strip. The Barbakh clan, according to videos it has circulated, operates in southern Gaza around the cities of Rafah and Khan Younis, while the Abu Ziyad family is based in the village of Zawaida, near Deir al-Balah in the center of the territory.
Prior to the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, the families organized under an umbrella group called the “Clans Committee,” originally founded in 2012 by West Bank-based Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The committee provided an avenue for the clans to maintain tribal courts to resolve disputes and violent incidents through customary mechanisms like financial settlements.
The committee continued operating under Hamas control after Abbas called for its dissolution in 2019. Clan leaders regularly held public visits with Gaza officials under the committee’s auspices. In July 2023, representatives of the committee even traveled to Cairo to meet with then-Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
For the nearly 20 years it has controlled Gaza, Hamas was able to coexist with the clans. Violent clashes were rare, occurring only when Hamas saw the families as a threat to its authority. More often, it co-opted their influence to pursue its own goals, while in other instances, it ensured that they remained focused on internal matters without challenging its authority.
But that informal pact now appears to be fraying.
Palestinian clans, organized in committees to prevent theft, guard trucks carrying aid that entered the Gaza Strip from the Zikim Crossing, west of Beit Lahia in the north of the Strip on June 25, 2025. (Bashar Taleb/AFP)
Growing involvement in humanitarian aid
Much of the recent friction revolves around aid distribution — a fraught issue across the Strip.
As Hamas, Israel and other parties have competed over control of a limited supply of humanitarian assistance, footage and eyewitnesses from Gaza suggest that armed clans are becoming more involved in securing the aid — and, perhaps, stealing it. Whom they are working for, and the payment they have received, remains unclear.
“Some of the aid coming in today is being secured by large families,” said a resident of northern Gaza who spoke to The Times of Israel and asked to remain anonymous.
He described the clans as a “reliable force,” adding, “They protected aid and prevented looting of the humanitarian shipments coming into Gaza.”
But the clans’ involvement in aid distribution has also brought bloodshed. A recent video posted from Gaza shows the Abu Ziyad clan accusing Hamas of killing a relative who tried to stop the terror group from stealing humanitarian aid.
The family demanded that Hamas hand over the operatives responsible for the killing. Otherwise, the clan said, it would “go to war against Hamas.”
Gunmen from the Abu Ziyad clan, who appeared in a video in which the family demanded that Hamas hand over operatives responsible for killing one of its relatives. June 2025. (screen capture: Facebook, 27a clause of the copyright law)
The families are able to both secure aid and fight Hamas because, footage indicates, their members increasingly carry light firearms.
Where these guns came from is unclear. It’s possible that some have trickled down — intentionally or not — from Hamas, which has spent the better part of two decades amassing significant weapon stockpiles through purchases, smuggling, and local manufacturing.
Some reports indicate that clans have used their position to steal aid meant for UN-affiliated humanitarian organizations operating in Gaza. A confidential UN memo obtained by The Washington Post in November 2024 identified Yasser Abu Shabab, a clan leader who has since cooperated with Israel, as “the principal and most influential figure behind the systematic and large-scale looting of aid convoys.”
On June 1, a Telegram channel affiliated with Hamas reported that an “armed family” had stolen humanitarian aid near Khan Younis that was intended for distribution in northern Gaza.
And on June 17, a video circulated from the Barbakh family that appeared to show their members escorting Gazans walking from Rafah northward toward Khan Younis, carrying food packages bearing the logo of the US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. In the footage, Gazans are seen thanking the family as armed men stand alongside them.
Hamas is still managing to cooperate with some clans. In recent weeks, Hamas-affiliated media published footage of humanitarian aid being distributed in Gaza City under clan protection. Armed men could be seen securing the aid trucks — an unusual show by Hamas, which rarely publicizes such aid distributions.
But in response, the Clans Committee issued statements denying any connection between Hamas or other factions and the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Members of the Abu Shabab clan in Gaza are seen in a video posted by the group. (screen capture: Facebook, 27a clause of the copyright law)
Clashing with Hamas — and Israel
The clans’ recent opposition to Hamas marks a departure from their stance throughout most of the war, when they largely directed their criticism at Israel. While Israel has conveyed that it hopes to see the clans take power in Gaza following the war, the families have publicly chafed at those plans.
In March 2024, for example, Aqef al-Masri, presented in Gazan media as a coordinator of the clan leadership committee, told Yemeni media that “Israel is a criminal state using illegal weapons to destroy the Palestinian people.”
That same month, the Clans Committee issued a statement declaring that the families “refuse to cooperate with Israel in the distribution of humanitarian aid.”
On May 11 this year, a demonstration was held in Gaza by clan leaders opposing the use of their families to distribute humanitarian aid under Israel’s control. During the rally, one clan leader declared, “Gaza will die but not surrender. Gaza will die but will not become a stick in the hand of the occupier under the pretext of humanitarian aid distribution.”
Israel had attempted to promote clan-led governance in Gaza as an alternative to Hamas at the beginning of the war. In January 2024, the IDF presented a plan to the security cabinet proposing that clans control specific areas of the Strip, where they would manage humanitarian aid distribution.
But by March 2024, the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported that most talks between Israel and Gaza clans to form an alternative authority had failed. Many clans refused Israel’s proposal that they secure specific areas, fearing retaliation from Hamas operatives still active in Gaza.
That June, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in an interview with Channel 14 that Hamas had assassinated clan leaders whom Israel had tried to recruit. It was one of the main reasons, he said, that the plan failed.
By June 2025, however, Netanyahu confirmed that his government was still arming clans in Gaza to oppose Hamas, saying that “in consultation with security officials, we made use of clans in Gaza that are opposed to Hamas.”
“What’s wrong with that?” he said in a video posted by the Prime Minister’s Office. “It’s only good. It saves the lives of IDF soldiers.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits troops in Gaza, April 15, 2025 (Haim Zach/GPO)
Yasser Abu Shabab denied Israeli support in an interview last month with an Israeli journalist from Army Radio, repudiating the prime minister’s claim that he collaborates with Israel or receives weapons from it.
“We do not work with Israel,” he said. “Our goal is to protect Palestinians from Hamas’s terror. Our weapons are not from Israel — they are simple arms we collected from the local population.”
Even if some families gradually do consolidate power in certain parts of Gaza as Hamas’s control falters, it remains unclear how they would treat Israel — or whether they might eventually direct their weapons against the IDF.
A statement released by the Barbakh family following the firefight at Nasser Hospital referred to Hamas as “agents of the occupation.” The message went on to warn against internecine war in Gaza, claiming, “This is exactly what the Zionist occupation wants.”
For more on Abu Shabab see this Friday Focus podcast:
Hamas has also continued to wage a media campaign against dissenting clans — and claims that it retains the families’ support. After the same armed confrontation with the Barbakh family at Nasser Hospital in which the family condemned Hamas, the terror group released a statement through its affiliated media that, it claimed, was made on behalf of the Barbakh clan whose members had just shot at its operatives.
“We, the Barbakh family, do not accept such individual actions,” the falsified statement said. It went on to demand punishment for the offenders, and to “call on the relevant authorities to act firmly and legally.”
For Milshtein’s part, the old adage “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” does not stand when it comes to replacing Hamas rule with clan leadership.
“I try to apply common sense and ask myself: How can anyone support criminal, unhinged actors like the Abu Shabab clan and others — some of whom were previously involved in attacks against Israel — and others who are reviled in Palestinian society? How can anything good come out of that?” he asked.
“Based on my historical perspective, looking at past cases like the South Lebanon Army established by Israel [during the seventies], this kind of thing can go from being detrimental to an outright failure. I think there is a mix-up between heartfelt desires and clear-eyed, realistic assessments of the situation,” said Milshtein.
WEST BANK
HOUTHIS// ISRAEL USA
Huckabee says that US B-2 bombers ‘need to visit Yemen’ after Houthis missile intercepted
“We thought we were done with missiles coming to Israel, but Houthis just lit one up over us in Israel,” the ambassador noted after the first missile attack since the Iran war.
A B-2 Spirit proceeds to an undisclosed location after flying a mission over Iraq, March 27, 2003.(photo credit: REUTERS/Cherie A. Thurlby/US Air Force)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 1, 2025 20:47Updated: JULY 1, 2025 22:13
US Ambassador Mike Huckabee said that US B-2 bomber planes “need to visit Yemen” after the Houthis launched a missile towards Jerusalem on Tuesday.
“We thought we were done with missiles coming to Israel, but Houthis just lit one up over us in Israel,” the ambassador wrote on X/Twitter.
“Fortunately, Israel’s incredible interception system means we go to the shelter & wait until all clear. Maybe those B2 bombers need to visit Yemen!”
Huckabee’s statement came after the Israel Air Force intercepted a missile from Yemen on Tuesday night. Sirens sounded in Jerusalem and the central area.
In a later statement, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Yemen would pay for the strike.
“The law of Yemen is the law of Tehran,” he wrote. “After we strike the head of the serpent in Tehran, we will also strike the tail of the serpent in Yemen.”
B-2 bombers strike Iran, ‘obliterate’ nuclear sites
The B-2 bombers were used most recently in the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Midnight Hammer. US officials said more than 30 tons of bombs were dropped using the planes.
US President Donald Trump called the strikes a “historic military success,” claiming the facilities were “completely obliterated.”
There are only 20 B-2 bombers in the US Air Force’s inventory, so they are usually used sparingly.
END
HOUTHIS/ISRAEL
Houthis vow to continue attacking Israel, boast ‘hypersonic’ missiles – analysis
While the Houthis claimed to have targeted Israel with a hypersonic “Palestine 2” missile, there is no evidence that it is actually hypersonic.
Footage released by Houthi Military Media says to show a launch of missile, which the Houthis say they fired at Israel, at an unknown location in this screen grab obtained from a handout video released on December 19, 2024.(photo credit: HOUTHI MILITARY MEDIA/via REUTERS)BySETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 2, 2025 15:50
The Houthis claimed to have targeted central Israel with a hypersonic “Palestine 2” missile on July 1; however, there is no evidence that it is actually hypersonic.
Hypersonic weapons usually refer to missiles that maneuver at hypersonic speeds over Mach 5. While ballistic missiles may reach hypersonic speeds, they follow a known trajectory, rather than maneuvering.
“In an official statement, the [Houthi] forces confirmed that the operation accurately achieved its objective, causing widespread panic among Zionist settlers, with millions fleeing to shelters and airport operations coming to a complete halt,” the Houthis‘ Al-Masirah media reported, adding that other areas in Israel had been targeted as well.
The Houthis also released a statement that “emphasized that these operations come as part of Yemen’s continued support for the Palestinian people and its rejection of the ongoing genocide being committed against them. It reaffirmed the Yemeni people’s determination to fulfill their national and religious duties toward the Palestinian cause.”
The Houthis have stated they will continue to support Gaza, meaning they will continue to back Hamas. They say they will continue to use “hypersonic and ballistic missiles,’ claiming they will target Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport, as well as Eilat. The Houthis also boasted about their “broader regional confrontation” with Israel.
The Houthis have successfully disrupted air traffic at Ben Gurion Airport
These Yemeni operations have successfully achieved their objectives, disrupting air traffic at Lod Airport (Ben Gurion) and preventing Israeli ships from navigating the Red Sea toward the port of Umm al-Rashrash in southern occupied Palestine.
“Since the ongoing genocide in Gaza by the Israeli enemy, the [Houthi] Yemeni Armed Forces have not only issued statements of solidarity but have also taken direct action. These actions have ranged from missile strikes targeting critical military installations in occupied territories to high-impact naval operations that have disrupted Israeli-linked shipping through the Red Sea,” Al-Masirah wrote.
The report also noted that four days ago, the Houthis carried out another attack, claiming to have used a Zulfiqar-type missile. These missiles and the technology behind them all have origins in Iran.
“With God’s help and reliance on Him, Yemen will continue its supportive operations until the aggression against Gaza ceases and the blockade is lifted,” the Houthis said.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA
USA halting some weapon shipments to Ukraine
(zerohedge)
US Halting Some Weapons Shipments To Ukraine As Own Military Stockpiles Plummet
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 08:50 AM
The Trump administration could finally be willing to bring real pressure to bear on the Zelensky government, as on Tuesday the White House confirmed that it its halting some weapons shipments to Ukraine.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war the “decision was made to put America’s interests first following” a Defense Department “review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe.”
This comes after many reports over the last couple years sounding the alarm that US military stockpiles are falling too low, and that they will continue to be depleted based on past Ukraine policy.
While it’s unknown precisely which weapons will be halted, or in what quanitites, Kelly asserted that “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran.”
However, we should note that the massive B-2 bomber raids sent against Iran’s nuclear facilities was widely questioned among the US public for not exactly being ‘America first’. Instead it appeared to prioritize the defense of Israel first.
Still, all the usual ‘options’ are on the table, we are assured by the Pentagon:
Elbridge Colby, Defense Department under secretary for policy, said in a separate statement Tuesday night in response to the move that the “Department of Defense continues to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving U.S. forces’ readiness for Administration defense priorities.”
A potential draw down or limitation of arms sent to Ukraine is likely also driven by the reality that the battlefield hasn’t changed substantially due to Washington and US-taxpayer funded assistance.
If anything the Russians keep advancing, now with an eye on Sumy and expanding the Putin-ordered buffer zone. Ukrainian sources say that that Russian forces have successfully expanded their occupation.
DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, has freshly written, “The trend from May, unfortunately, continued in June. As a reminder, during the most critical month for us – November – the Russians advanced by 730 sq km.
“The largest advances were recorded on the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk fronts – 29% and 27% respectively. Sumy Oblast also ranks among the top with 18%. This means three-quarters of all advances took place in just three areas,” the group said. “The remaining quarter is distributed almost evenly across other sectors of the front (4–6% per sector).”
Is Trump getting serious about a drastic shift in policy in Ukraine this time?
Meanwhile, there hasn’t been progress on the peace negotiation front. But this could change if Kiev begins running woefully low on US weapons, or sees a halt altogether, creating a new urgent incentive to possibly make territorial concessions at the negotiating table. But it remains that the Europeans have been consistently seeking to step up their support of late.
end
. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
THIS OUGHT TO BE FUN!!
(Watson//Modernity News)
Is Rand Paul About To Finally Nail Fauci?
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 12:00 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
GOP Senator Rand Paul announced Monday that he intends to subpoena Anthony Fauci to testify regarding his role in the development of COVID-19.
Ironically, because Fauci accepted a ‘pardon’ from Joe Biden’s autopen, it means he cannot invoke the Fifth Amendment.
This opens up the possibility of perjury charges should Fauci withhold the truth while under oath.
Appearing on Fox News, Paul explained “I’ve been trying for over three years to get non-classified records about the decision to fund the research in Wuhan, and it’s been denied.”
“But I can tell you under Secretary Kennedy, under Jay Bhattacharya, the records are beginning to flow,” Paul added.
“And what we’re discovering is yes they did debate whether or not it was gain of function,” Paul continued, referring to communications between Fauci and his cohorts.
“Fauci is going to need come back in,” Paul urged, noting “There will be an interview either voluntarily or involuntarily.”
END
robert h to us; it is about time!!
iT’S OVER! RFK Jr. OBLITERATES Bill Gates’ Vaccine Empire – Trump FREEZES All GAVI Funding as Global Elites SCREAM in PANIC! – Gazetteller
Welcome news, and we can appreciate why Gates was slinking around the White House trying to save his demented work.
RFK Jr. is a hero of the people!
Once the lawsuits start this could be bigger than big tobacco.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, June 23-30, 2025
Actors Joe Marinelli, Bob Elmore, Kylie Page (28); singers Bobby Sherman, Rebekah Del Rio; footballers Oliver Gibson, Nate White (20), Rich Stephens; baseballers Dave Parker, Matt Murray; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerJul 2 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Joe Marinelli, General Hospital and Santa Barbara Alum, Has Passed Away at 68
June 24, 2025
Joe Marinelli, who played Bunny Tagliatti on Santa Barbara from 1988-90, Pauly Hardman on Guiding Light in 1993 and Joseph Sorel on General Hospital from 1999-2001, has passed away at the age of 68. The actor, who was born on January 21, 1957, in Meriden, Connecticut, had been struggling with his health for the past few years while also appearing on Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon’s Apple TV+ hit, The Morning Show, as the show-within-a-show’s director, Donny Spagnoli. In 2022, the entire cast won a Screen Actors Guild award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series.
Researcher’s Note - Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link
No cause of death reported.
‘Texas Chainsaw Massacre 2’ Leatherface Actor Bob Elmore Has Passed Away
June 30, 2025
Bob Elmore [65], a stuntman who’s best known for playing Leatherface in The Texas Chainsaw Massacre Part 2, has passed away. “Just to be recognized for working in this little, itty bitty movie that brought pleasure to so many people — and there’s some people that really, really, really enjoyed it,” Elmore said of his iconic role in a 2016 interview from Scream Factory’s Blu-ray release. He also performed stunts in the horror cult classics The Monster Squad and Dr. Giggles. Elmore’s first gig was at Knott’s Berry Farm as part of the amusement park’s Wild West Stunt Show.
No cause of death reported.
Adult Film Star From Netflix Doc Dies at 28
June 30, 2025
Netflix’s Hot Girls Wanted: Turned On star Kylie Page died at age 28. The Los Angeles County [CA] Medical Examiner confirmed to AVN on June 26 that the late adult film star passed away one day prior. Kylie’s cause of death has not been confirmed, and an investigation is ongoing.
Rick Hurst, Cletus Hogg on ‘The Dukes of Hazzard’ and father of actor Ryan Hurst, dies at 79
June 27, 2025
Actor Rick Hurst, best known as dim-witted Deputy Cletus Hogg on the TV show “The Dukes of Hazzard,” has died unexpectedly in Los Angeles [CA]. He was 79. “It doesn’t seem right that Rick Hurst passed away this afternoon. When something so unexpected happens, it is ‘harder to process,’ as the current expression goes,” actor and politician Ben Jones, who played Cooter Davenport on “Hazzard,” wrote Thursday evening on the Facebook page for Cooter’s Place, a business themed to the show. Hurst had been scheduled for fan meet-and-greet appearances July 3-7 at the Cooter’s in Pigeon Forge, Tenn., according to the website for the store and restaurant, which has three locations.
No cause of death reported.
Update to our report earlier this month:
Brian Wilson’s Cause of Death Revealed After Beach Boys Co-Founder’s Death at 82
June 26, 2025
Brian Wilson’s cause of death has been shared. The Beach Boys co-founder passed away on June 11 at 82, his family announced on Instagram. Just over a year ago, Wilson announced he was living with a neurocognitive disorder akin to dementia, but now his cause of death has been revealed. The 82-year-old songwriter and musician died of “respiratory arrest,” according to the death certificate obtained by TMZ. Per the American CPR Care Association, respiratory arrest occurs “when a person’s breathing completely ceases, leading to a lack of oxygen in the body” and can quickly progress to cardiac arrest if not treated immediately. Additionally, he had infections such as sepsis and cystitis, along with neurodegenerative disorder, obstructive sleep apnea, chronic respiratory failure, and chronic kidney disease. It’s unknown how much he knew of his medical problems.
Researcher’s Note – Beach Boys Legend Brian Wilson Gets His Covid Jab: Link
Bobby Sherman, Heartthrob Singer and TV Actor of the 1970s, Dies at 81
June 24, 2025
Bobby Sherman, a singer and actor who became a quintessential shaggy-haired teen idol of the late 1960s and early ’70s, died Tuesday at age 81. His wife, Brigette Poublon Sherman, had announced three months ago that the entertainer had been diagnosed with stage 4 cancer.
Rebekah Del Rio, who sang ‘Llorando’ in David Lynch’s ‘Mulholland Drive,’ dies at 57
June 27, 2025
Rebekah Del Rio, whose soulful performance of “Llorando” added new layers of poignancy to the David Lynch classic “Mulholland Drive,” has died at 57. Del Rio died in her Los Angeles [CA] home Monday, June 23, according to the office of the city’s medical examiner, who confirmed the news to USA TODAY Friday, June 27. Both the cause and manner of death were listed as deferred, meaning a deputy medical examiner completed an initial examination but required more studies and tests to make a final determination. The process could take several months.
At the age of 52 TV producer and former P7S1 manager Michael Schmidt has died
June 23, 2025
From WDR to the world: With a passion for comedy, Michael Schmidt moved through the German industry, expanded the international production business for P7S1, and recently didn’t shy away from tough topics. He died unexpectedly on Sunday. With a great passion for programming, always a must-watch clip on his smartphone – and an unmistakable laugh: This is how many companions from more than 30 years in the TV industry will remember him, both in Germany and internationally. Michael Schmidt, a committed advocate for good programming, who, despite leading management positions, maintained his passion for development and details. He died unexpectedly on Sunday in his adopted home of New York at the age of just 52.
No cause of death reported.
Walter Scott Jr., Founding Member of R&B Group The Whispers, Dies at 81 from Cancer
June 28, 2025
Walter Scott Jr., a founding member of the R&B group The Whispers, has died, PEOPLE can confirm. He was 81. According to the Los Angeles Sentinel, the musician died on Thursday, June 26, six months after being diagnosed with cancer. Per the publication, Walter was in Northridge, Calif., surrounded by his family at the time of his death.
Supa of Aly‑Us Has Passed Away—“Follow Me” Was More Than a Track, It Was a Movement
June 29, 2025
Roselle, New Jersey – Longtime house music lovers will feel this one. Eddie Lewis [56], better known to the scene as Supa, the soulful frontman and co‑founder of early‑90s house outfit Aly‑Us, has passed away. His voice—smooth, commanding, full of heart—animated the unforgettable anthem “Follow Me,” a track that became the soundtrack for unity, freedom, and collective joy in clubs around the world.
No cause of death reported.
Rihanna’s father Ronald Fenty’s cause of death revealed after sudden passing
June 26, 2025
Officials have confirmed the cause of death of Rihanna’s father, Ronald Fenty, who passed away on May 30 surrounded by his family. The 70-year-old was suffering from a myriad of illnesses when he passed, according to the death certificate obtained by TMZ. Ronald checked into a Los Angeles hospital in late May, and quickly declined in health. His death certificate states that the cause of death was due to acute respiratory failure, pancreatic cancer, and aspiration pneumonia. Also listed on the certificate were acute renal failure and acute tubular necrosis, indicating that his kidneys had shut down.
Notre Dame football and NFL defensive tackle Oliver Gibson passes away at age 53
June 30, 2025
While there is plenty of excitement for Notre Dame football, on Sunday evening, it was announced that former Irish defensive tackle Oliver Gibson had passed away at 53 years old, putting a damper on the good mood. The Illinois native played for the Irish in the early 1990s, and was selected by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the fourth round of the 1995 NFL draft. He’d also play for the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, before retiring after the 2004 season.
No cause of death reported.
Nate White, 20
June 26, 2025
Former Wisconsin Badgers and South Dakota State running back Nate White has died at the age of 20, according to multiple news sources. He passed away in Brookings, South Dakota, where he was a student at South Dakota State University after transferring from Wisconsin in January. A cause of death has not been released.
Researcher’s Note – UW’s flu vaccination recommendations: Flu shots: The CDC recommends that everyone over the age of six months receive the flu vaccine each year. This three-dose vaccine is recommended for female identifying individuals [sic], ages 11–26 and male identifying individuals [sic], ages 11–21: Link
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
HAPPY CANADA DAY TO EVERYONE EXCEPT PRIME MINISTER CARNEY
a holiday offering from the Globe and Mail archive
This is a straight cut-and-paste from a pay-walled piece. Something I rarely do but it is a devastating take down of the man who waltzed into the Prime Minister’s office with virtually no background scrutiny from legacy media. Credit where its due. Below is the original byline.
‘A failed, second-tier Canadian politician’: Mark Carney’s dire Brexit warnings earn the wrath of British politicians
Mark Carney rarely shies away from expressing strong opinions, but the Governor of the Bank of England is facing a backlash over a blunt Brexit analysis that has led to calls that he’s hysterical, incompetent and a “failed, second-tier Canadian politician.”
Mr. Carney has been under fire since Wednesday when the central bank released a detailed report on how Britain will fare after the country leaves the European Union on March 29. The study examined several scenarios including the possibility of the country crashing out of the EU without any agreement on trade or other matters. Under that scenario, the bank said that within five years Britain’s economy would shrink by 8 per cent, house prices would fall by 30 per cent, unemployment would nearly double to 7.5 per cent, the pound would lose 25 per cent of its value and inflation would soar to 6.5 per cent. That’s a far worse hit than the country experienced after the 2008 financial crisis.
“Our job is not to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst,” Mr. Carney told reporters after releasing the assessment. “We have looked at a potential no-deal, no-transition Brexit … the reason we do that is to be prepared for all eventualities.”
On Thursday he went further, telling the BBC that British businesses were largely unprepared for a no-deal Brexit. “Less than half of the businesses in the country have initiated their contingency plans for a no deal Brexit,” he said, citing the bank’s contacts with businesses and other surveys. He stressed that the no-deal scenario was unlikely and that Britain’s financial system could withstand the turmoil. And he took pains to say that he wasn’t advocating government policy but simply responding to a request for information from Parliament.
That did little to quell the criticism. Several pro-Brexit members of Parliament attacked Mr. Carney for being hysterical, politicizing the central bank and seeking to undermine a hard Brexit. “It is unusual for the Bank of England to talk down the pound and shows the Governor’s failure to understand his role. He is not there to create panic,” said Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg. “Unfortunately, he’s a second-tier Canadian politician. Having failed in Canadian politics, he’s got a job in the U.K., which he isn’t doing well.” Another pro-Brexit Tory MP, Bernard Jenkin, said Mr. Carney had trashed the economy “as part of a propaganda exercise.”
It wasn’t just politicians piling on. Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman also weighed in. “I’m anti-Brexit, and have no doubt that it will make Britain poorer,” Mr. Krugman said in a series of posts on Twitter. “And the [Bank of England] could be right about the magnitude. But they’ve really gone pretty far out on a limb here … their bad-case losses from a no-deal Brexit look extremely high.” Mr. Krugman, who is based in New York, has been a critic of many of the dire economic forecasts surrounding Brexit, suggesting that economists’ claims have been dubious.
Andrew Sentance, a former member of the bank’s rate-setting monetary-policy committee, also criticized the report, calling it bogus and “highly speculative.” The report “will add to the view that the bank is getting unnecessarily involved in politics and that will further undermine perceptions of its independence and credibility,” Mr. Sentance said on Twitter.
But the report won the backing of Prime Minister Theresa May, who has been scrambling to win support for a Brexit deal she has struck with the EU. That agreement, which calls for a transition period and close economic ties to the bloc, will be put to a vote in the House of Commons on Dec. 11, and so far few MPs expect it to pass. Ms. May has argued that if MPs don’t support her deal, the country risks the chaos of a no-deal Brexit, and she has cited the bank’s report as evidence of what could happen.
This isn’t the first time Mr. Carney has run into controversy over Brexit. Just before the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership in the EU, he warned the country could fall into a technical recession if it left. That prompted anger from many pro-Brexit Tories, who have since noted that the economy has performed better than expected since the vote.
On Thursday, Mr. Carney refused to back down and defended the bank’s analysis. “We have a responsibility to have the system ready for whatever happens,” he told the BBC. “In order to do that we need to do this type of analysis.”
He also has a bit more at stake personally in Brexit. While he still holds Canadian citizenship, he became a British citizen as well last week. He told reporters on Wednesday that his new status hasn’t made him any more or less comfortable about speaking out on important issues. “I feel as comfortable as I’ve ever done talking about Brexit or any other issue facing the U.K.,” he said.
End.
My stated hypothesis is that our Prime Minister is captured by his own failures. While Bank of England Governor, he failed IN 2016 to stop the Brexit crowd and seems to still be carrying a grudge. Nearly ten years later, in 2024, Carney was captured seething with resentment against the awful, uppity, populists who dared challenge the globalist agenda.
This is who we got.
Stay critical.
#truthovertribe
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Elon Musk Stuns MAGA with New Statement: ‘Time for a New Political Party’A détente between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump only lasted about as long as their first dramatic feud, underscoring how tensions are still simmering weeks after the mercurial Tesla founder left his government position.In a social media post, Musk reiterated his disappointment with U.S. Senate Republicans for working through the weekend to advance Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax cuts, which …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Senate Rejects Measure to Kick Illegals Off Medicaid — 1 Republican Votes ‘No’The Senate, during a vote-a-rama on the One Big Beautiful Bill on Monday afternoon, failed to include a provision that would end illegal aliens from fraudulently receiving Medicaid benefits.One Republican, RINO Susan Collins of Maine, actually voted for illegal aliens to continue receiving Medicaid benefits! Four Democrats voted in favor of the Motion.Per Townhall, the vote to remove illegals from …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| WaPo Publishes Intelligence Leak That Undermines Trump’s Iran Strike Claim — WH RespondsThe Washington Post, published a US-intercepted communication between Iranian officials downplaying strikes on nuclear sites.This is the second intel leak related to the US’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.“The United States obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing this month’s military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and remarking that the attack was less devastating than they had expected, per …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Idaho Sniper Suspect Made Chilling Post Hours Before Deadly AmbushIdaho killer Wess Roley posted a chilling online photo of himself masked in camouflage with a belt of rifle shells, along with a Bjork song with lyrics ominously warning, “I’m going hunting’’ — just hours before his deadly ambush, officials said Monday.The creepy post was among a slew of new details about the horror revealed at a sheriff’s press conference.Authorities …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Family of Idaho Sniper Breaks SilenceThe family of Idaho sniper Wess Roley – who shot dead two firefighters after apparently luring them to the woods with a brushfire Sunday — has broken their silence, saying they “do not understand” how his heinous crime happened.“At this time, we, the family of Wess Roley would like to offer our most heartfelt condolences to the families of those …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWSWIZE
| LATEST NEWS |
| Official Data: 99% of ‘Covid Deaths’ Were ‘Vaccinated’Newly released government data has just demolished the official Covid “vaccine” narrative, exposing a staggering post-vaccination death toll that can no longer be ignored.READ MORE |
| GOP Sen. Shatters Sweeping Section of Trump’s Bill in Stunning MoveSen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) has yanked a controversial component of President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ that would ban all states from enforcing laws or regulations related to AI for a total of 10 years.Blackburn’s proposal to erase the ban passed with flying colors, with a 99-1 vote.This marks a massive loss for Silicon Valley leaders and White House officials alike …READ MORE |
| Trump says Israel has agreed for a 60-day ceasefire in GazaPresident Donald Trump confirmed Tuesday that Israel has agreed to the key terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and bluntly warned Hamas that they better take the deal—because the alternative will be far more devastating. Trump made the announcement as preparations ramp up for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to the White House, scheduled for Monday. The …READ MORE |
| The jury has reached a partial verdict in the Diddy trialThe jury in the explosive sex-trafficking trial of rap mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs has announced that they’ve reached a verdict on four out of five federal charges—but remain deadlocked on the most serious one: racketeering conspiracy. At just after 4:00 PM ET, the jury submitted their third note of the day to the judge, signaling a partial resolution in the …READ MORE |
| FBI Uncovers Chilling Espionage Plot Amid Growing National Security FearsTwo individuals believed to be working on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party’s intelligence agency have been arrested by U.S. authorities for allegedly spying on U.S. Navy service members and recruiting military personnel to assist their efforts.The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that Yuance Chen, residing in Happy Valley, Oregon, and Liren Lai, who entered the country on a tourist visa …READ MORE |
| LATEST NEWS |
| Bryan Kohberger accepts plea deal in Idaho student murders case, avoiding death penaltyBryan Kohberger, the man accused of brutally murdering four University of Idaho students in a cold-blooded home invasion, has accepted a plea deal that will spare him the death penalty, according to Fox News. The 30-year-old suspect, once a Ph.D. student in criminology at Washington State University, just 10 miles from the crime scene in Moscow, Idaho, will now plead …READ MORE |
| Rep. Don Bacon signals ‘no’ vote on big beautiful bill after quitting re-election raceNebraska Congressman Don Bacon is now threatening to vote “NO” for the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” as it makes its way back to the House for final approval. Bacon, a self-proclaimed “moderate” and one of the worst RINOs in Congress, declared this week that he is “not a ‘yes’ necessarily” on the bill, despite the GOP holding only a …READ MORE |
| FBI Arrests High-Ranking Dem in Explosive Corruption CaseFederal authorities have arrested Linda Sun, a former top aide to ex-New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and a senior official under Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), in a sweeping investigation into pandemic-era corruption and foreign influence. The announcement was made Thursday by FBI Director Kash Patel, who said Sun’s actions jeopardized public safety and national security.Sun and her husband, Chris Hu, …READ MORE |
| Suspect Behind Deadly Firefighter Ambush IdentifiedAuthorities have identified the shooter responsible for a deadly ambush on Canfield Mountain in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, as 20-year-old Wess Roley. Roley was found dead near his firearm Sunday afternoon after allegedly opening fire on firefighters who were responding to a brush fire, killing two and critically wounding a third, according to an earlier report from Resist the Mainstream.The incident unfolded …READ MORE |
| Letitia James Erupts Following Devastating Legal DefeatNew York Attorney General Letitia James sharply criticized the U.S. Supreme Court following its decision to uphold President Donald Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship. The ruling not only rejected her legal challenge but also limited the power of federal judges to block nationwide policies, drawing a strong reaction from James, who led the first lawsuit against the administration’s order.The case, …READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| Furious Trump Unveils Galactic Threat Against Elon as X Boss Vows to Form New Political Party: ‘Close up Shop and Head Back Home to South Africa’ – EVOLREAD MORE… |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Tariff Derangement Syndrome(s)
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 10:50 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Stocks continued to hit all-time highs yesterday even as the balance of op-eds in financial media talk about the collapse of the liberal world order and threats to liberal democracy itself. Both can be true simultaneously, but caveat emptor on the asset and op-ed side. German stocks sold off when Hitler assumed power then rallied until the Battle of Stalingrad… at which point those trades literally blew up; and if every op-ed writer who deserved it got real egg on their face, the price of that staple would be soaring again. Yet today Bloomberg claims stock traders fear missing out on this rally more than any looming tariffs, “because markets.”
In their corner now is “Main Street not Wall Street’ US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who just attacked the Fed’s “Tariff Derangement Syndrome” to also call for rate cuts. That’s as Fed Chair Powell admitted the FOMC had gone on hold due to the size of the US tariffs being floated, then hinted at a rate cut as soon as this month.
Who can blame markets for a ‘buy all the things’ response to such a potential pivot? Yet there is that pesky tariff issue to overcome first, and de range of potential outcomes there is de syndrome we need to focus on. What we’ve seen in data so far reflects a universal tariff of 10% for everyone but China, who faces around 50%, and Beijing then dumping goods that were heading to the US on the EU, acting as a deflationary force – but one that will ultimately be rejected by trade actions. If tariffs change, the data will change. In short, for markets if not central banks, wait and see is not necessarily a bad option in a potentially crucial week.
Indeed, President Trump just said he won’t extend the July 9 deadline to strike trade deals, and even close allies like Japan could face higher tariffs. Moreover, while we just had insider whispers that the EU accepts the best it can get is a 10% universal tariff and quota exemptions for sectoral tariffs, there are others that it will now take a harder line. Clearly, different journalists are being fed different lines by different stakeholders – and that lack of unity is Europe’s problem in a nutshell. However, it’s also the Fed’s… and the ECB’s, BOJ’s, BOE’s, BOC’s, PBOC’s, etc.
Also note China’s People’s Daily reports CCP Chairman Xi just argued the country needs to “govern the disorderly competition of enterprises at low prices in accordance with laws and regulations” – in other words, stop race-to-the-bottom price cuts on EVs and solar panels, etc.
Meanwhile, fiscal policy doesn’t say major monetary loosening is appropriate…. except if fiscal dominance necessitates it, which implies financial repression to follow. For three examples:
- The Senate narrowly passed Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, to Elon Musk’s fury. It now goes back to the House, where it faces a potentially difficult passage for its self-imposed 4 July deadline. That’s as Trump mused that he’d DOGE Musk’s firms and even look into deporting him if he makes political trouble over the BBB, and Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “If Elon sticks to rockets, I’ll stick to finance.” Until he gets stuck running the Fed(?)
- UK PM Starmer managed to pass his welfare bill, but only with massive concessions to rebels that will boost the fiscal deficit significantly. There appears no appetite for any more spending cuts if we were to see the global negative impact of a trade war ahead; and
- The French PM survived a no confidence vote over proposed cuts to welfare there too, but only because the far-right National Rally propped him up, again showing their new parliamentary muscle – and they say they reverse at any point that suits them.
Moreover, as populism rises and the ‘free’ movement of goods is undermined, Poland introduced border checks with Germany and Lithuania inside Schengen, weakening the free movement of people, and the FT bewails less free movement of capital re: the US (and UK) carve-outs from the G7 minimum corporate tax agreement, as each locality tries to keep its revenues for itself.
As in geoeconomics, wait and see is also evident in geopolitics.
On the upside, Israel has reportedly agreed to a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, to which it has yet to respond, in what looks like a move that will free remaining hostages and allow broader regional peace deals. There’s also been a sharp decline in Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israel following hits to Yemen’s ports and to Iran.
On the downside, the US says Iran loaded naval mines onto its ships during its recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz(!), and satellite images show it’s built a new access road at Fordow and moved in construction equipment – will the US or Israel have to hit it again? True to form, the EU says talks on Iran’s nuclear program should “restart as soon as possible.” Close by, Turkey told Europe its stand behind its joint maritime claim with Libya –which effectively bisects the eastern Mediterranean– and that’s on top of Ankara’s other recent claim on Greek waters.
The Pentagon has halted scheduled shipments of air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine on worries US stockpiles are too low after being expended in the Middle East. This is a critical problem for Ukraine, and for Europe by proxy – and an expensive one for both of them. As a US spokesperson noted, “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DoD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe. The strength of the US Armed Forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.”
As stressed here for many years, this is critical for markets overall: our global financial architecture ultimately rest on US military hegemony, but it has whittled down the US ability to produce enough weaponry to push-back against the axis of forces now trying to undermine it. Something will have to give, and markets won’t like it either way: the emerging argument is it’s either tariffs, higher defence spending, and possible financial repression, or something potentially worse – not ‘peace through strength’ but risks of ‘war through weakness’.
Yet as an example of how the US can use still realpolitik to push back for now, and will try to do so more ahead, it’s mused the recent Democratic Republic of Congo-Rwanda peace deal will effectively see the former grant the US access to $2 trillion of key minerals it holds as quid pro quo for D.C. stopping a Rwandan militia it had helped fund. By contrast, Europe is in the middle of an offsite to form a committee to set up a working group to create a new acronym to help it access key minerals in unstable places like Africa. I exaggerate, of course, but you get the point.
But do central banks get it? From those who talk to them, no, they really don’t. They apparently can’t even hear the word ‘tariffs’ without suffering from a form of derangement syndrome, and the thought of political, economic, and military statecraft is still alien to them after a career of bean-counting, physics-envy maths black magic, and portentous prognostication.
So, do markets get it? Do we need to ask? They are busily plotting out future rate cuts and buying all the things, even when only some of the things would be worth buying in that kind of environment. That’s a tariff derangement syndrome of another sort.
7.OIL COMMENTARIES:
WTI Rebounds As ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom At Cushing Hub After Big Dr
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 10:39 AM
Oil prices have pumped and dumped this morning as traders turn their focus to a key OPEC+ production decision and this morning’s official supply and production data (following a big draw at the Cushing Hub reported by API overnight)..
“Crude oil prices remained roughly unchanged week-on-week as the market focus shifts from the ceasefire in the Middle East to this Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note.
“We do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday as consensus has already shifted towards this outcome.”
The question this morning is will the official data confirm API’s sizable Cushing draw.
API
- Crude +680k
- Cushing -1.42mm
- Gasoline +1.92mm
- Distillates -3.46mm
DOE
- Crude +3.845mm – biggest build since Mar 2025
- Cushing -1.493mm – biggest draw since Jan 2025
- Gasoline +4.188mm
- Distillates -1.71mm
A big crude build (the first in six weeks and biggest since March) was offset by a relatively big drop in stocks at the all important Cushing Hub last week as gasoline inventories surged and distillates declined…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Tank Bottoms’ loom for Cushing once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Including a small 239k addition to the SPR, last week saw the biggest build in total crude stocks since the start of April…
Source: Bloomberg
US Crude Production was basically flat at or near record highs despite the rig count continuing to decline…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI is rebounding off its lows of the day after a big roundtrip overnight…
Source: Bloomberg
Trading activity in crude futures has declined since the truce between Israel and Iran led prices to plunge early last week, with volatility returning to levels seen before the war.
Concerns are likely to return to a glut forecast for later this year, with an OPEC+ meeting this weekend expected to deliver another substantial increase in production quotas.
END
Iran Reportedly Made Plans To Litter Strait Of Hormuz With Naval Mines
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 01:40 PM
The U.S. launched “Operation Midnight Hammer” on June 22, deploying stealth bombers to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs. President Trump declared the sites were “totally obliterated.” In retaliation, Iran’s parliament voted to authorize the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s oil flows—sparking renewed anxiety among global energy traders over the threat to vital tanker lanes.
As readers understand, any move by Iran to close the critical waterway would instantly disrupt nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments and trigger substantial—and potentially cascading—economic harm (energy inflation) worldwide. However, those threats ultimately fell short in the days that followed, and Brent crude futures have since returned to the $67-a-barrel level, effectively roundtripping the entire move.
Iran has several military and asymmetric tools at its disposal to disrupt or close the Strait of Hormuz, including:
- Naval Mines
- Fast Attack Boats & Swarm Tactics
- Anti-Ship Missiles
- Submarine Operations
- Seizing or Boarding Tankers
- Shore-Based Artillery or Rocket Attacks or Drone Strikes
- GPS Scrambling
- Cyberattacks on Port Infrastructure
- Coordinated Proxy Attacks
In the lead-up to and during Operation Midnight Hammer, widespread GPS interference was reported across the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources we highlighted indicated a noticeable slowdown in tanker traffic, as navigation systems were degraded and insurance premiums for vessels surged.
A new Reuters report, citing anonymous U.S. officials, reveals that intelligence indicated Tehran was preparing to blockade the Strait of Hormuz using one of its most effective and low-cost tactics: littering the narrow shipping corridor with naval mines.
More color on the report:
The previously unreported preparations, which were detected by U.S. intelligence, occurred some time after Israel launched its initial missile attack against Iran on June 13, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
The loading of the mines – which have not been deployed in the strait – suggests that Tehran may have been serious about closing one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, a move that would have escalated an already-spiraling conflict and severely hobbled global commerce.
. . .
Reuters was not able to determine precisely when during the Israel-Iran air war Tehran loaded the mines, which – if deployed – would have effectively stopped ships from moving through the key thoroughfare.
It is also unclear if the mines have since been unloaded.
The sources did not disclose how the United States determined that the mines had been put on the Iranian vessels, but such intelligence is typically gathered through satellite imagery, clandestine human sources or a combination of both methods.
. . .
The two officials said the U.S. government has not ruled out the possibility that loading the mines was a ruse. The Iranians could have prepared the mines to convince Washington that Tehran was serious about closing the strait, but without intending to do so, the officials said.
Israel’s 12-day war with Iran and Tehran’s ultimately hollow threat (so far) to close the Strait of Hormuz appear to have had limited lasting impact on global oil markets, reflected in Brent crude trading around $68 on Wednesday afternoon.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1781 DOWN 0.0024 PTS OR 24 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 143.85 DOWN 0.485 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3722 DOWN .0023 OR 23 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3651 UP 0.0006(CDN DOLLAR DOWN 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 2.95 PTS OR 0.09%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 149.82 PTS OR .62%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.65%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 149.82 PTS OR 0.62%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.95 PTS OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.65 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 223.85 PTS OR 0,56%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3331.10
silver:$36.01
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.48 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.106% UP 8 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.457% UP 8 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.287 UP 8 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.561 UP 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6320 UP 8 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1797 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.63 UP .262 OR YEN IS DOWN 26 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.611 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0051 OR 51 BASIS pts to 1.3594
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1658 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1640
TURKISH LIRA: 39.77 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.439
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.292% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.818 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.789 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3355.40
SILVER AT 11;00: 36.56
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 10.64 PTS OR 0.12%
GERMAN DAX: UP 116.82 pts or 0.49%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 175.83 pts or 0.99%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 57.20pts or 0.41%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 216.20 or 0.51%
WTI Oil price 67.34 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 68.99 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.87 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 38/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.363 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.914 UP 1/2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1784 DOWN 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3736 UP .0007 OR 7 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4430 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.381 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PT
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.77 DOWN 0.031 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3650 UP 0.0044 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 44 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 65.65
Brent OIL: 67.30
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.255
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 PTS to 4.777%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 3.781%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.272 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.824 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 96.44 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 39.83 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 78.50 DOWN 0 AND 30/100 roubles
GOLD $3338.65 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 36.07 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 10.52 OR 0024%
NASDAQ 100 UP 163.75 PTS OR 0.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.66 DOWN 0.17 PTS OR 1.01%
GLD: $ 309.25 UP 1.70 PTS OR 0.55%
SLV/ $33.24 UP 0.51 PTS OR OR 1.56%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 9.00 PTS OR .034%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Bad News Is Good News’ – Stocks, Oil, Bitcoin, & Precious Metals Surge As US Macro Melts Down
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 08:00 PM
US majors traded marginally higher today as investors looked through a very weak ADP private sector employment estimate and continue to climb this 3-month ‘wall of worry’ to new highs.
The ugly ADP print dragged US Macro Surprise Index down to its most negative since Sept 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that ‘bad news’ was ‘good news’ for rate-cut hopers (though it appears most are waiting for confirmation tomorrow)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and in turn that sparked the ubiquitous ‘short squeeze’…
Source: Bloomberg
Which dragged stocks higher (led by Small Caps) as The Dow lagged (hurt by UNH as Healthcare names were hammered)…
Despite today’s rise in Small Caps, we note that it has been 913 days since the Russell 2000 made a new record high…
Source: UBS
Yesterday’s momentum meltdown continues today – though not as aggressively…
Source: Bloomberg
…as 2025’s ‘best trade’ continues to give back its gains relative to the rest of the market…
Source: Bloomberg
Bond yields were higher on the day led by the long-end (30Y +5bps, 2Y +1bps) after initially tumbling on the ADP print…
Source: Bloomberg
USTs were impacted modestly by a surge in UK Gilt yields as Rachel Reeves tears were shed…
Source: Bloomberg
On a sidenote, we point out that USA Sovereign credit risk has tumbled in recent days (in fact it has fallen non-stop since Moody’s downgraded). The ‘risk’ is now lower than before Trump’s Liberation Day uncertainty was unleashed (and impressive considering the size of the ‘OBBB’)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Cable dumped on the Rachel Reeves shitshow…
Source: Bloomberg
A trade deal with Vietnam and a big draw at the Cushing Hub (testing ‘tank bottoms’ again), prompted a rip higher in crude oil prices (but in context to last week’s plunge post Israel-Iran, it still has a long way to go)…
Source: Bloomberg
Precious Metals were all bid today…
Gold
Platinum
Palladium
Silver
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Ethereum outperformed today(as the relentless piling up of futures shorts may have finally snapped)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin also ripped higher today, testing up towards record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
…on the back of continued BTC ETF inflows (and demand from Bitcoin Treasury companies)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and one could be forgiven for thinking there’s more to come…
Source: Bloomberg
…especially if we see a ‘dud’ payrolls print tomorrow (because ‘bad news is good news’ for liquidity after all).
TODAYS BIG NEWS
ADP Reports Biggest Drop In Service-Provider Jobs Since COVID Lockdown
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 08:22 AM
Having trended weaker for the last two months, analysts expected a modest bounce back in the ADP Employment Report for June (following the mixed picture from ISM/PMI for employment and another mixed bag from Challenger, Grey Job Cuts data this morning).
BUT… The headline print saw a 33k DROP in jobs in June (and a downward revision to +29k in May) – the biggest/first drop since March 2023
Source: Bloomberg
“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
After losing 2k jobs in May, Goods-Producing firms managed 32k job additions in June but Services providers saw jobs drop 66k – the biggest drop since COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
The job losses were dominated by smaller businesses…
“Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”
- Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May.
- Pay growth for job-changers was 6.8 percent in June, down slightly from 7.0 percent last month.
So, will Powell consider rate-cuts now?
END
USA DATA RELEASES
US New Home Sales Surged In April Despite Slump In Homebuilder Confidence
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 10:18 AM
Despite the plunge in homebuilder confidence, US New Home Sales soared in April to 743k SAAR…
The 10.9% MoM surge in sales in April (versus a 4.0% MoM expected decline) was bolstered by a big downward revision in March from +7.4% MoM to just +2.6%…
This is the biggest beat since August 2022… and the second big downward revision in a row…
Meanwhile, the median new home sales price decreased 2% from a year ago to $407,200 (on an annual basis, prices have largely been retreating over the past 12 months) and is now back below existing home sale prices…
This month, 34% of builders reporting cutting prices, the largest share since December 2023, according to recent data from the National Association of Home Builders.
The surge in new home sales comes as mortgage rates tumbled…
So, don’t hold your breath for a recovery – rates are rising once again!
end
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
THIS IS GOOD!
Rubio Announces USAID Has ‘Officially’ Ceased Operations
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed on Tuesday the shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which had been rapidly dismantled earlier this year by the Trump administration.
In a blog post on the State Department’s website, Rubio wrote that foreign assistance provided by USAID had failed to deliver results for Americans and also said that the agency was part of the “globe-spanning NGO [non-governmental organizations] industrial complex” that was funded by taxpayers.
“USAID has little to show since the end of the Cold War,” Rubio said.
“Development objectives have rarely been met, instability has often worsened, and anti-American sentiment has only grown. On the global stage, the countries that benefit the most from our generosity usually fail to reciprocate.”
Rubio wrote that as of July 1, the agency “will officially cease to implement foreign assistance” and that only assistance programs that align with the Trump administration’s priorities will be facilitated.
Democrats and a union representing foreign service workers have strongly pushed back against the dismantling of USAID, claiming that cuts to the agency would lead to a reduction in aid to poor countries and would ultimately put lives in danger.
But Rubio said in the blog post that USAID pushed anti-American ideas across the world along with “censorship and regime change operations” overseas and that it collaborated with NGOs that were “in league with Communist China and other geopolitical adversaries.”
On the day of Rubio’s announcement, the American Foreign Service Association union, which has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, said in a statement that USAID’s closure would cause the United States to lose its standing in the world and would impact the government’s capacity to wield “soft power.”
“Rather than engage in constructive conversations to lessen the devastating impact of these layoffs, the administration chose instead to inflict maximum pain and hardship through a barrage of questionable—and likely illegal—policies, accompanied by dismissive and dehumanizing rhetoric, all delivered with little thought to implementation or human consequences,” the American Foreign Service Association stated.
A new “analysis” published Monday in The Lancet, a once-reputable medical journal that disgraced itself during the COVID-19 pandemic, made the absurd claim that “14 million people could die over the next five years” because Donald Trump and the Trump administration cut funding to USAID.
This “analysis” also claimed that from 2001-2021, per NBC News, that “USAID-funded programs prevented nearly 92 million deaths across 133 countries.”
Some Republicans in Congress welcomed Tuesday’s announcement.
“America First: Every Dollar, Every Diplomat. Thank you, President Trump and Secretary Rubio, for your leadership,” GOP members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee wrote in a post on social media platform X.
This comes just three weeks after Rubio ordered U.S. embassies around the world to proceed with a directive to fire all remaining staffers with USAID.
A federal judge had temporarily blocked an executive order by President Donald Trump for mass firings at multiple federal agencies, including the State Department, and plaintiffs have argued that Rubio’s reorganization plan appears to violate that court injunction. The Trump administration said the plan was already underway when the order was issued.
Earlier this year, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had made USAID one of its first targets to dismantle as part of a Trump administration initiative to reduce what it said was fraud, waste, and abuse within the federal government. At one point earlier this year, Rubio had served as the acting head of USAID while it was being dismantled.
END
THE BILL HAS NOW MOVED TO THE HOUSE:
House GOP Faces Rebellion As Johnson Scrambles To Salvage Trump Tax Bill
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 10:20 AM
After months of grinding negotiations, late-night Senate rewrites, and bruising intra-party fights, House Republicans are careening toward a moment of reckoning. Speaker Mike Johnson is pressing ahead this week with a vote on the party’s massive reconciliation package — a cornerstone of President Donald J. Trump’s second-term agenda — but signs of fracture within the Republican conference threaten to derail the plan just hours before the vote.
The legislation, a multi-trillion-dollar tax-and-spending overhaul, is the product of months of backroom dealing between House and Senate Republicans. If passed, it would represent the most significant domestic achievement of Trump’s presidency to date. But GOP leaders now face resistance from both flanks of their party, from hardline conservatives warning of fiscal betrayal, and moderates fearing political blowback over health care cuts.
“We’re working through everybody’s concerns and letting them know this is the best possible product we can produce,” Johnson told reporters Wednesday morning, conceding that he does not yet have the votes to pass even the procedural rule required to begin debate on the bill.
Deepening Doubts, Tight Timeline
The House is scheduled to reconvene at 9 a.m. today, with leadership aiming to move the legislation before the July 4 recess. But on Tuesday night, Johnson and his team were still scrambling. Members of the GOP whip team expressed alarm over the number of “no” votes on their tally sheets — including from lawmakers they had assumed were in support.
Two conservative members of the Rules Committee, Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, voted against advancing the bill Tuesday night, a warning sign of trouble ahead. A procedural vote, initially slated for Wednesday, may be delayed to Thursday due to both political uncertainty and widespread travel delays caused by thunderstorms snarling flights into Washington.
“We have fifty-one-and-a-half million foreign born people in this country,” Roy told Punchbowl News. “You clamp down on illegal immigration, which is what the president is doing, but you need to limit, slash and refocus legal immigration… legal immigration is part of the problem.”
Even Speaker Johnson admitted during a Fox News appearance Tuesday night that the vote might slip another day.
Hardliners Dig In
A cluster of House Freedom Caucus members are threatening to tank the bill, saying Johnson has abandoned the House’s original budget framework, one that paired $2 trillion in spending cuts with $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. The Senate-passed version, they argue, compromises too much.
Roy wrote on X Tuesady night;
FACT: The Senate OBBB increases deficits and violates the terms of the budget deal in the House.
FACT: The Senate OBBB guts the strong provisions to terminate the “green new scam” subsidies in the House bill.
FACT: The Senate OBBB removes key provisions we put in the bill to stop illegal aliens from getting Medicaid.
FACT: The Senate OBBB removes key provisions we put in the bill to stop taxpayer funding of transgender surgeries.
FACT: We can amend it, send it back, fix it, & pass both the tax cut extensions AND border provisions we all want to pass.
Happy to stay here every day until we get it right.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) said publicly that the bill is unlikely to pass “as is” and expressed agreement with Elon Musk, who labeled the proposal “bad.” Roy, meanwhile, raised alarm over the bill’s deficit projections. Norman has signaled he will vote no on both the rule and the bill itself.
Adding to the drama is a pro-Trump super PAC now running attack ads against Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, a frequent critic of the bill. And Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) unexpected retirement announcement — after opposing the Senate version — sent a ripple of caution through GOP ranks.
Moderates Waver
It’s not just the right causing trouble for Johnson. Several moderates from swing districts are voicing concerns over the bill’s Medicaid cuts and repeal of clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, who represents a district Trump lost in 2020, is seen as a possible “no” vote due to Medicaid and energy concerns. Rep. David Valadao of California and Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, both vulnerable members, are also being watched closely. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC), the only practicing physician in Congress, has demanded guarantees that the bill’s $50 billion rural hospital fund will benefit struggling institutions like those in his district. “I actually still practice and take care of patients,” Murphy said. “The district that I represent is one of the poorest in the country.”
Reps. Glenn Grothman and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin have also raised alarms over the bill’s impact on rural hospitals. And several newly elected members, including Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania, have raised similar concerns about Medicaid provisions.
Leadership Strategy: Trump at the Center
With time running short, House Republican leaders, including Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Whip Tom Emmer, are leaning heavily on Trump’s influence to lock in support. The president is scheduled to meet privately today with key GOP factions, including members of the House Freedom Caucus, to try and close the deal, Bloomberg reports. Johnson will remain at the Capitol holding separate meetings with undecided members.
The message from leadership: This may not be the bill Republicans dreamed of, but it’s the only one that can pass. “Despite what House Republicans hoped to see in this bill, this is what they face now. And it’s time to put it up for a vote,” one senior aide said.
As Punchbowl notes further, inside leadership circles, some are questioning whether the rule, let alone the final bill. can be passed.
Democrats, meanwhile…
House Democrats are unified in opposition and eager to tie the legislation to Republican vulnerabilities in the upcoming midterm elections.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Punchbowl that the bill would haunt “every single swing-seat Republican” who votes for it. He pointed to steep Medicaid reductions and threats to rural health care access as political liabilities. “The American people do not trust the Republican Party with respect to health care,” Jeffries said. “The whole enterprise is a toxic scheme.”
On Thursday, Jeffries is expected to deliver a roughly one-hour speech on the House floor, a so-called “Magic Minute,” to lay out Democrats’ objections.
The stakes for Johnson and Trump could not be higher.
end
THEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
Not So Fast: Massie Announces He Has Enough Votes To Block ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ In The House
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 02:49 PM
Update (1450ET): Are we having fun yet? Major divisions within the House threaten to derail the Big Beautiful Bill, with Speaker Mike Johnson struggling to overcome resistance by fiscal conservatives.
Earlier in the day the House appeared ready to hold a test vote, however several conservative Republicans raised objections – suggesting that Johnson might not have the votes to move forward, given that he can only afford a handful of defections on the measure.
As of midday, at least two Republicans were a hard ‘no’ on the bill in its current form.
President Trump, meanwhile, met with holdouts at the White House as Democrats and Republicans argued over the merits of the bill on the House floor.
At the end of the day, Johnson has little room for maneuvering – as any changes to the bill would send it back to the Senate for further deliberation that could drag on for weeks.
Members of the House Freedom Caucus are livid over measures added to the Senate that increases costs.
“The Senate doesn’t get to be the final say on everything. We’ve got to work this out,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) Wednesday morning, adding that there are enough Republicans “right now” who wanted to reopen the bill and don’t care about the July 4 recess deadline.
More moderate Republicans objected to Medicaid cuts approved by the Senate that went deeper than the House’s May iteration.
Trump Announces Trade Deal With Vietnam; Includes 20% Tariffs, 40% Tax On Transshipping
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 11:04 AM
With just one week left until the July 9 trade deal deadline, which some suspect could have a similar adverse impact on markets as the first Liberation Day – even if stocks are completely oblivious to the risk – moments ago Trump gave a stark reminder just how high the trade stakes are when he announced that the US has made a trade deal with Vietnam.
According to the terms, Vietnam will pay the United States:
- 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory,
- 40% Tariff on any Transshipping, which is squarely aimed at China which uses Vietnam as a reshipment/tolling hub.
Of the two, one can argue that the transshipment clause is more important because in recent weeks China had threatened that any country that makes a deal with the US at its expense would make it very angry. Which means that Xi is now terribly vexed.
In any case, in return for the tariffs, Trump said that “Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.”
Which is hardly a big deal, since the US barely exports to Vietnam.
what does matter is that a deal has been struck however, and now many other Asian countries will scramble to do the same, even if it is at terms that antagonize China (like in this case). Amusingly, Trump said that as a result of the deal, US SUVs will be a “wonderful addition” to various product lines within Vietnam.
It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure.
While stocks initially dipped on seeing the 20% print, they have since rebounded and recovered all losses, and trade at session highs, as algos remain completely oblivious that behind the scenes, huge tension is once again building up between the US and China, which is negotiating deals that Beijing will view as offensive, making the odds of an actual trade deal with Beijing much lower than most expect.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
A NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 2, 2025 Issue 7525 | Independent View of the News |
| @BloombergTV: “The US economy is in a pretty good position.” …Powell says it’s “prudent” to “wait and learn more” before judging the impact of tariffs, as he speaks at a central banker panel in Sintra Powell Sees US Interest Rates as ‘Modestly Restrictive’ – BBG Powell says US economy is healthy overall while Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target. US Fed chief adds that the prudent thing to do is wait and learn more… Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,”… (Powell’s ALL lie, again!) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/powell-confirms-that-the-fed-would-have-cut-by-now-were-it-not-for-tariffs.html Powell Says Tariff Impact on US Prices Seen Coming This Summer – BBG Powell has bet Fed independence and prestige, plus his own reputation, on tariff inflation. Even worse, as esteemed money manager El-Erian notes, Jay’s remark on tariff inflation yesterday was idiotic! Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm: Commenting on US inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated today that the central bank is prepared for the impact of tariffs to be “higher or lower, or later or sooner than expected.” Such framing, while seemingly open-minded, risks leading the world’s most powerful central bank straight into yet another damaging “muddled middle,” exacerbating what critics already view as a lack of strategic thinking and vision for this particular Fed. Of course, what is a Powell appearance without deceit and hypocrisy? POWELL: WE SHOULD STAY OUT OF POLITICAL ISSUES Car sales plummet following pre-tariffs panic buying: ‘The party is over’ https://trib.al/Apda3aT Hey Jerome, if this is accurate, inflation should drop meaningfully! PS – Some analysts claim the same dynamic is impairing retail sales, which will also reduce demand and inflation. @libsoftiktok: CNBC forced to recognize that Trump’s tariffs have brought in over $121 BILLION to the US without imposing a burden on the consumers. It’s almost like the “experts” were wrong! https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1939784590236742050 @Real_RobN: INSIDE THE FEDERAL RESERVE: A hidden camera captures a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve admitting that Jerome Powell’s legacy is “somebody who held the line against Trump” — and deliberately hurting the U.S. economy… Aurel Hizmo: “Trump is just a crazy person” and conservatives are “dumb” as he describes to OMG’s American Swiper Citizen Journalist a politicized Federal Reserve Board where Powell has promoted ESG issues like climate change and “wants to be remembered in history” “as a savior… I’m just really worried that I’m saying stuff that’s classified…It’s all classified… Powell belongs in prison. https://x.com/Real_RobN/status/1939799977481695262 S&P Global US Mfg. PMI for June 52.9, 52 expected and prior ISM Mfg. for June 49, 48.8 expected, 48.5 prior Prices Paid 69.7, 69.5 expected, 69.4 prior; New Orders 46.4, 48.1 expected, 47.6 prior Employment 45, 47.1 expected, 46.8 prior The Chicago PMI is 40.4 for June, 43 expected, 40.5 prior. The index has now stayed below the 50-point threshold for 19 straight months and sits 7.2 points below March’s high of 47.6… https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/chicago-pmi After pouring into Fangs for weeks to chase Q2 performance and a last-hour manipulation on June 30 to game Q2 performance, traders unloaded Fangs early on Tuesday. At 11:00 ET, the NY Fang+ Index was -1.61% on: CrowdStrike -4.62%, Broadcom -4.07%, Nvidia 4.03%, Netflix -3.46%. Apple was +1.78% on bargain hunting. Tesla sank after the NYSE opening, tumbling 7.6% at 9:31 % on the latest DJT-Musk spat. Trump: Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate. It is ridiculous and was always a major part of my campaign. Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this?… @cb_doge: REPORTER: “Are you going to deport Elon Musk?” TRUMP: “We’ll have to take a look. We might have to put DOGE on Elon. You know what DOGE is? The monster that might have to go back and eat Elon. Wouldn’t that be terrible? He gets a lot of subsidies.” @elonmusk: So tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I will refrain for now. ESUs traded moderately lower during early Nikkei trading on Tuesday. After falling to 6242.25 at 19:27 ET, ESUs rallied to what turned out to be the daily high of 6257.75 at 21:54 ET. ESUs then steadily sank to a daily low of 6227.25 at 8:24 ET. The ingrained buying for the NYSE opening drove ESUs to 6253.00 at 10:16 ET. The professional ‘dump’ pushed ESUs down to 6227.50 at 11:12 ET. The rally for the European opening pushed ESUs to 6247.75 at 11:30 ET European close. ESUs then retreated moderately, and range traded. Seante Passes Trump Tax Bill, Teeing Up Fina/ Passage in House – BBG 12:03 ET DJT-hating GOP Sens (Tillis, Collins, and Paul) voted against the bill; VP Vance broke the 50-50 tie. The House is expected to pass the bill today. DJT said he would sign it on the 4th of July. Once the bill becomes law, if a recession appears in the coming months, Powell and his Fed allies will own it! Fed Chair Powell says he won’t rule out interest rate cut this month “…It depends on how the data evolve.”… (Jay back to data dependency! He knows it’s on him now!) https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-chair-powell-rule-interest-rate-cut-month/story ESUs broke out of their range trading near 13:25 ET and ran to a daily high of 6261.50 at 13:53 ET. After a modest retreat, ESUs rebounded modestly and went inert until they broke sharply lower at 14:00 ET. After hitting 6240.00 at 15:02 ET, the last-hour manipulation pushed ESUs to 6260.50 at 15:50 ET. Late trader liquidation pushed ESUs down to 6245.25 at 16:00 ET. Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA rallied sharply on start-of-July buying, the 4th of July Rally, and momentum. The usual last-hour manipulation boosted stocks. Negative aspects of previous session The NY Fang+ Index sank, which felled Nasdaq, the Naz 100, and the S&P 500 Index USUs declined modestly; Oil, Gasoline, and Gold rallied sharply. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are US stocks forming some type of top? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6195.59 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6210.78; 6177.97 @AryJeay: Iran will enrich uranium as much as it wants Iranian MP Boroujerdi & member of the National Security Commission said: “From now on, we will enrich uranium as needed without accepting any conditions. For example, we may need 90% enrichment for ocean-going ships, and we can now do this without limitations, this enrichment is not necessarily for nuclear weapons.” https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1940124232924766297 @KobeissiLetter: The US M2 money supply jumped +4.5% Y/Y in May, to a record $21.94 trillion. This marks the 19th consecutive monthly increase. It has now surpassed the previous all-time high of $21.86 trillion, posted in March 2022. Furthermore, inflation-adjusted M2 money supply rose 2.1% Y/Y last month, the largest increase since early 2022. Since 2020, the US M2 money supply has risen nearly $7 trillion, or ~45%. The US Dollar’s purchasing power is in an eternal bear market. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1940127012733272430 Today – In Tuesday’s missive we noted that Fangs look exhausted; they tumbled on Wednesday. Stocks are extremely overbought after the historic rally from the April lows. Early July upward seasonal bias is keeping stocks buoyant. It feels like stocks should retrench today. If stocks are soft in the morning, 4th of July Rally buying could appear in late trading. ESUs are +5.00; NQUs are +25.75; USUs are +3/32; and gold is +1.10 at 19:20 ET. Expected Economic Data: June ADP Employment Change 95k S&P Index 50-day MA: 5846; 100-day MA: 5776; 150-day MA: 5850; 200-day MA: 5836 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,946; 100-day MA: 42,062; 150-day MA: 42,631; 200-day MA: 42,617 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6198.01 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5807.26 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5383.26 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6087.31 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6173.75 triggers a sell signal @DOGE__news: Zohran Mamdani says the aim is to gradually replace private housing with shared communal living. (The Hamptons would be a good place to start, plenty of open land.) https://x.com/DOGE__news/status/1940071648302096685 @BenTelAviv: On October 7th, Zohran Mamdani blamed Israel, and only Israel, for Hamas’s terror attack on Israel. He did this while Hamas terrorists were actively murdering, raping, kidnapping and maiming thousands of Jews. Hamas killed 1,200 people and kidnapped 250 people on October 7th. https://x.com/BenTelAviv/status/1940094946486223339 @EricLDaugh: President Trump announces he will ARREST Zohran Mamdani if he becomes mayor and blocks ICE from NYC “We’ll have to arrest him.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1940092804492841191 Schumer indicates Democrats are not slowing on amendments to ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ amid vote-a-rama – Schumer did not indicate how many more amendments will be introduced before the final vote, but said Democrats want to introduce “as many amendments as we can.”… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/schumer-indicates-democrats-are-not-slowing-amendments-big-beautiful-bill-amid Josh Hammer in The Telegraph: Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is an insult to the US Supreme Court Joe Biden nominated her on grounds of identity politics. Now even her fellow justices are brutally dismantling her arguments (Pay Wall) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/07/01/justice-ketanji-brown-jackson-is-insult-to-us-supreme-court/ NYC driving school rigged driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants — even if they couldn’t drive: DA https://trib.al/8Sttors @toadmeister: More than 40% of babies in England – and over two thirds in London – had a parent who was born outside the country in 2024, new figures reveal, as statistics underline the extreme pace of chang | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
UPenn, Trump Admin Reach Deal To Strip Trans Swimmer Of Past Titles & Awards
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,
The transgender swimmer who won an NCAA Division I crown in the women’s category in 2022 was stripped of that championship medal and all records as a female competitor at the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) under the school’s recent agreement with the Department of Education, officials announced.
The resolution agreement signed by UPenn administrators requires the school to prohibit males from competing in female athletic programs or occupying women’s bathrooms or locker rooms.
It must also make a personal, written apology to every female swimmer who competed against the transgender athlete, Lia Thomas.
“Today is a great victory for women and girls not only at the University of Pennsylvania, but all across our nation,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said in a July 1 news release.
“The department commends UPenn for rectifying its past harms against women and girls, and we will continue to fight relentlessly to restore Title IX’s proper application and enforce it to the fullest extent of the law.”
President Donald Trump issued an executive order earlier this year prohibiting males from competing in women’s sports.
He cited the Title IX laws of 1972 that protected women’s sports.
In April, the Trump administration suspended $175 million in federal aid to UPenn and said the school would lose additional federal funding unless Thomas’s titles were relinquished.
The NCAA previously complied with Trump’s executive order and prohibited males from women’s sports.
Thomas won a Division I NCAA women’s swimming championship in the 500-yard freestyle event in 2022 after competing on the men’s team from 2017–2020.
Riley Gaines, a former Kentucky women’s swimmer who competed against Thomas, and Paula Scanlan, a former teammate of Thomas who had to share a locker room with the transgender athlete, have lobbied against male participation in women’s sports.
“From Day 1, President Trump and Secretary McMahon vowed to protect women and girls, and today’s agreement with UPenn is a historic display of that promise being fulfilled,” Gaines said in a press release.
“This administration does not just pay lip service to women’s equality: it vigorously insists on that equality being upheld.”
UPenn released a statement acknowledging the agreement and Title IX obligations.
“Penn remains committed to fostering a community that is welcoming, inclusive, and open to all students, faculty, and staff,” UPenn President J. Larry Jameson said in a July 1 news release.
“I share this commitment, just as I remain dedicated to preserving and advancing the university’s vital and enduring mission.
“We have now brought to a close an investigation that, if unresolved, could have had significant and lasting implications for the University of Pennsylvania.”
END
Not Just The EPA: Despite Warnings, Biden’s Energy Department Disbursed $42 Billion In Its Final Hours
Wednesday, Jul 02, 2025 – 12:40 PM
Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,
In its last two working days, the Biden administration’s Energy Department signed off on nearly $42 billion for green energy projects – a sum that exceeded the total amount its Loan Programs Office (LPO) had put out in the past decade.
The frenzied activity on Jan. 16 and 17, 2025, capped a spending binge that saw the LPO approve at least $93 billion in current and future disbursements after Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election in November, according to documents provided by the department to RealClearInvestigations. It appears that Biden officials were rushing to deploy billions in approved funding in anticipation that the incoming Trump administration would seek to redirect uncommitted money away from clean energy projects.
The agreements were made despite a warning from the department’s inspector general, urging the loan office to suspend operations in December over concerns that post-election loans could present conflicts of interest.
In just a few months, some of the deals have already become dicey, leading to fears that the Biden administration has created multiple Solyndras, the green energy company that went bankrupt after the Obama administration gave it $570 million. These deals include:
- Sunnova, a rooftop solar outfit that thus far had $382 million of its $3.3 billion loan guaranteed, filed for bankruptcy this month. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
- Li-Cycle, a battery recycling facility, had a $445 million loan approved in November, but since then, the company was put up for sale and has filed for bankruptcy. The Energy Department said no money has been disbursed on that deal. Li-Cycle did not respond to a request for comment.
- A $705 million loan was approved on Jan. 17 for Zum Energy, an electric school bus company in California, and its “Project Marigold.” At $350,000 and more, electric school buses currently cost more than twice as much as their diesel counterparts. So far, Zum has received $21.7 million from the government, according to usaspending.gov. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
- A $9.63 billion Blue Oval SK loan on Jan. 16 was the second largest post-election deal, topped only by a $15 billion loan the next day to Pacific Gas & Electric, with most of that for renewables. The Blue Oval project in Kentucky – a joint venture between Ford Motor Co. and a South Korean entity – has been dealing with numerous workplace complaints, and construction of a second EV battery manufacturing plant there has been delayed. More than $7 billion has been obligated on that deal, according to the Energy Department. Blue Oval did not respond to a request for comment.
The money and the hasty way in which it was earmarked have drawn the attention of the Trump administration. “It is extremely concerning how many dozens of billions of dollars were rushed out the door without proper due diligence in the final days of the Biden administration,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement to RCI. “DOE is undertaking a thorough review of financial assistance that identifies waste of taxpayer dollars.”
The enormous sums came from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which injected $400 billion into the LPO, a previously sleepy Energy Department branch originally intended to spur nuclear energy projects. That total represented more than 10 times the amount the LPO had ever committed in any fiscal year of its existence. Prior to the post-election blowout, the office’s biggest fiscal year was 2024, when it committed $34.8 billion, records show.
Even with the rush to push billions out the door in its last months, close to $300 billion of the Inflation Reduction Act money remains uncommitted by the LPO. Trump administration officials have already nixed some smaller deals. Secretary Wright recently urged Congress to keep the money in place as the LPO now aims to use it to further the Trump administration’s energy policy, particularly with nuclear projects.
That unprecedented gusher of cash from the LPO echoes the efforts of the Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency to push $20 billion out the door before it left office. As RCI has previously reported, the EPA – which had never been a consequential grant-making operation – was tasked with awarding $27 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funding through the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund and Solar For All programs. It did so in less than six months in 2024, including an unorthodox arrangement in which Biden officials parked some $20 billion outside the Treasury’s control. That money was earmarked for a handful of nonprofits, some of which had skimpy assets and were linked with politically connected directors.
The LPO’s post-election bonanza was put together in even less time. The Energy Department deals, however, involve mostly for-profit enterprises, which raises questions about whether the Biden administration was propping up companies that would not have survived in the private marketplace. Should any of the companies hit it big in the future, shareholders could get rich, while taxpayers will receive only the interest on the loan.
“The loan office should not be in the virtual venture business,” said Mark Mills, executive director of the National Center on Energy Analytics. “But in a few cases, it could make sense to serve as a catalyst or backstop for viable and important projects from a national security or policy perspective.”
RCI spoke with several Trump administration officials who declined to comment on the record, given the extensive ongoing review of both the LPO’s post-election arrangements and other Energy Department projects linked to Biden’s climate agenda.
“They wanted to get the billions to companies that probably wouldn’t exist unless they could get money from the government,” one current official said. “The business plans, such as they were, were ‘how do we secure capital from the government?’”
During Biden’s tenure, the office was run by Jigar Shah, who on June 17 was named to the board of directors of the nonprofit Center for Sustainable Energy. Bloomberg News reported last month that Shah “helped select roughly 400 companies with development plans to receive grants and loans upwards of $100 million each.” In response to the Trump administration’s pushback on green subsidies, Bloomberg reported that Shah is working to help some of the companies he bankrolled shift operations to Europe.
The Center relies chiefly on government contracts instead of donations, and it saw that revenue jump from $274.1 million in 2023 to more than $500 million in 2024, according to tax records. The center did not respond to a request to speak with Shah.
Thus far, no entity has received the entire amount of the deals the Biden administration struck since last November, according to the Energy Department and usaspending.gov. In a handful of cases, companies have come to the current administration and opted out of the deals.
Still, millions of taxpayer dollars have already been distributed, in some instances, to deals the department listed as “conditional commitments.” Wright has said there are “reasons to be worried and suspicious” about the post-election binge, and vowed some of the deals will be scrubbed.
In 2023, the Biden administration made subtle changes to the LPO’s regulations, cutting strings and stipulations that traditionally attach to loans. Consequently, the office cut deals after the election on terms more favorable to the recipient than the taxpayer, and in several cases, making a “conditional commitment” the same as a loan, according to Trump officials. The changes also moved money that a later administration could have cut into “obligated” silos, making the deals harder to cancel, according to the current Energy Department.
“Essentially, they had the Loan Program Office operating like a graveyard energy venture capital fund,” one Trump official told RCI. “This was all tied to the religious fervor for any green energy project in the prior administration, and the goal was not to get the government repaid but to advance the ‘green new deal.’”
The $93 billion under review represents a separate “green bank” from smaller Biden administration deals that the Energy Department has already canceled. Last month, the Government Accounting Office said the department was not on track to “issue loans and guarantees before billions of dollars of new funding expires.”
As part of the review, Wright issued policy guidelines in May that he said offer more protection to taxpayers. The department may now require significantly more information from loan recipients and applicants, such as “a project’s financial health, a project’s technological and engineering viability, market conditions, compliance with award terms and conditions and compliance with legal requirements, including those related to national security.”
The department declined to provide the terms of specific deals, again citing the ongoing review. Trump administration officials claim the business plans for many of these deals were threadbare, that term sheets were essentially tossed out, and the entire process could be described, in the words of a Biden EPA official in December, as “throwing gold bars” off the Titanic “as an insurance policy against Trump winning.”
Despite these dubious outcomes and the alleged removal of taxpayer protections that accompanied the deals, Trump administration officials said they remain committed to the LPO. The office has a valuable role to play in fulfilling energy policy goals, which include nuclear projects, strengthening the nation’s power grid, and limiting the U.S. reliance on Chinese supply chains for key minerals and elements.
“It’s as if you went away and the kids threw a rager in the house,” one official told RCI. “You may need some new furniture and the like, but it’s still a really nice home. The Office can be a critical resource for the manufacturing base of this country, and our goal is not to end the LPO but to improve it.”
The Trump administration could face some of the same financial issues if it rejiggers the LPO along lines that support its energy policy goals, particularly within the nuclear industry. Projects there have been marred by unprofitable plants and massive cost overruns and delays in construction, making federal loans to the section inherently risky.
Prominent voices – and investors – like Bill Gates have also encouraged the government to back new sources of energy and minerals. Geothermal projects are one such field, and there appears to be bipartisan support in Washington for capital that will shore up U.S. energy independence. On Jan. 15, the Biden administration approved a $1.2 billion “conditional commitment” with a subsidiary of EnergySource Minerals LLC (ESM), which hopes to extract lithium from geothermal brine.
A deal with ioneer Ltd. appears to match some of the professed goals of the Trump administration, but it has also been plagued by financial setbacks since Biden’s LPO approved it in its final days. The company’s deal grew from an original $700 million “conditional commitment” in 2023, to the $996 million approved on Jan. 17, 2025.”
The Rhyolite Ridge project is a mining and manufacturing center in Nevada to produce lithium and boron. Those elements have implications for defense and national security in addition to energy, according to ioneer Vice President Chad Yeftich.
“Ioneer believes government policy should encourage projects if we want critical minerals developed domestically,” Yeftich said. “Time is the key risk for development as China continues to provide financial support to its critical minerals industry and dump critical minerals into the market thereby depressing the price.”
Yeftich noted Rhyolite Ridge has secured $200 million in private capital, but in February, its chief private equity partner broke ties with the project. Finance professionals familiar with big deals told RCI that such a rupture so close in timing to the loan would likely deep-six the arrangement, but Trump officials said Biden’s LPO stripped such boilerplate language from many of the post-election deals.
Secretary Wright told RCI that these maneuvers suggested the previous administration was more interested in disbursing funds than protecting taxpayers. “Any reputable business would have a process in place for evaluating spending and investments before money goes out the door, and the American people deserve no less from their federal government.”
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING LAARRY KLAYMAN
Trump vs Deep State Lawfare & Violence – Larry Klayman
By Greg Hunter On July 2, 2025 In Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Renowned attorney Larry Klayman has correctly predicted that the Left would turn to violence, especially when things do not turn their way. Despite the recent Supreme Court ruling curtailing of nationwide injunctions to stop President Trump’s agenda, Klayman says the Deep State lawfare and violence is far from over. Klayman says, “The decision says that one district in this country, say it’s the district of northern California where the Left likes to go because it is very leftist, will only apply in that district or in that circuit. . . and only to the parties involved, and it does not extend beyond that. . .. There has been a lot of euphoria, and they think everything is solved. It’s not because those decisions are still followed by judges in other districts. It’s precedence now. . .. It still will have an effect throughout the country. It does not solve everything.”
The Deep State is getting increasingly desperate as cash dries up and legal avenues are cut off. What are they left with? Klayman says, “Violence is what they are left with, and we see it happening. We are now seeing calls to violence repeatedly. This includes this mayor to be in New York City, which advocates violence against Christians and Jews. He called for a worldwide ‘intifada.’ It will be financed probably by George Soros and others. This is why we at Freedom Watch are doing what we are doing to fight back. We are finding ways to sue them, and we need your support at FreedomWatchUSA.org because this is very expensive. We have to take them out legally. . .. They want us dead. They don’t want us alive. We have to be ready to defend ourselves, and we have to defend our gun rights because they want to take the guns away from us. Yes, this is coming. With each day you see a Trump success, not only is he more at risk . . . but probably those two assassination attempts are not the last from the left,”
Good news for Trump will be bad news for the Left. Klayman predicts, “This is worse than ever. . .. You are going to see much more violence in the future. This is why I tell people, go out there and buy a gun. Get ready to protect your family. Don’t use a gun offensively, but use it defensively. If you feel you are going to be killed or have bodily injury, then use it. They are coming for us.”
There is much more in the 41-minute interview.
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org, as he updates us on the Deep State takeover of America for 7.1.25.
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: https://usawatchdog.com/trump-vs-deep-state-lawfare-violence-larry-klayman/
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