118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 152
323 C HSBC 198
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 110
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 19
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10 91
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 16 21
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 194
709 C BARCLAYS 12
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 5 10
880 C CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 6
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 423 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 42,300 OZ or 1.3157 TONNES
total notices so far: 6892 contracts for 689,200 OR 21.437 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 351 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.755 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6937 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 34.685 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 9.680 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 38.825 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 12.457 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1880 CONTRACTS OI TO 164,281 AND CLOSER TO TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 225 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 225 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 225 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1813 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 225 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1655 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.14 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.275 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.14 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.81 PTS OR 0.02%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 28.23 PTS OR 0.12%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 223.20 PTS OR 0.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1723 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1770/ Oil UP TO 66.99 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.67 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.1723 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1770 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5151 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 446,800 OI WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.50 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1901 ). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //MONDAY TRADING.
THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES.
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 0
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7052 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE IN JANUARY THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS STRONG AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3945 T.A.S.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
HOWEVER JULY IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 0.6562 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 21.698 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 21.698 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 10+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 229 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1901 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 1901 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1901 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED, 3945 CONTRACTS.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0.6562 QUEUE JUMP = 21.698 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 54 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $0.50/ /) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STROING SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////MONDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; ZERO SO FAR
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ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 21.934 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 21,100 OZ OR 0.6562 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 21.698 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.50
WE HAD A HUGE 936 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7052 CONTRACTS OR 705,200 0Z (21.934 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 255,358 contracts
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
JULY CONTRACT MONTH
JULY 8/2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY . 1 ENTRY i) Out of JPMorgan: 9,259.488 OZ (288 KILOBARS) total withdrawal 9259.488 OZ (0.288 TONNES) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 1 ENTRY i) Into HSBC: 168,952.900 oz (5255 kilobars) total deposit: 168,952.900 oz (5.255 tonnes) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 423 notice(s) 42,300 OZ 1.3157 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 84 contracts 8400 OZ 0.2612 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 6892 notices 689,200 oz 21.437 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
we have 1 customer entry
1 ENTRY
i) Into HSBC:
168,952.900 oz
(5255 kilobars)
total deposit: 168,952.900 oz
(5.255 tonnes)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
1 ENTRY
i) Out of JPMorgan: 9,259.488 OZ
(288 KILOBARS)
total withdrawal 9259.488 OZ (0.288 TONNES)
adjustments: 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 507 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 201 CONTRACTS. ON MONDAY WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED SO WE GAINED A STRONG 211 CONTRACTS OR 21, 100 OZ (0.6562 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD
AUGUST LOST 1542 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 310,175
SEPT GAINED 60 CONTRACTS TO 1347
We had 423 contracts filed for today representing 42,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 423 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 91 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6892 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (507 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (423 x 100 oz per contract) equals 697,600 OZ OR 21.698 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 21.698 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (6469 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (507 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (423 x 100 oz) which equals 697,600 OZ OR 21.698 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 21.698 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 21.698 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,190,440.438 oz 68.131 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,876,794.425 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,200,085.926: or 628.307 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,617,708.499 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 18,009,645 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 560.17 tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
THE JULY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
JULY 8
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Out of JPMorgan 974,450.300 oz total withdrawal 674,450.300 OZ |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex: 601,073.700 oz total deposit; 601,073.700 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 0 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 351 CONTRACT(S) (1.755 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 828contracts (4.140 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6937 Contracts (34.685 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposits into dealer accounts
1 ENTRY
i) Into Stonex: 601,073.700 oz
total deposit; 601,073.700 o
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) One deposit: in HSBC; 601,073.700 oz
total deposit: 601,073.700 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan 974,450.300 oz
total withdrawal 974,450.300 OZ
ADJUSTMENTs 3
a) Customer acct to dealer Asahi: 301,158.700 oz
b) Customer to dealer Brinks 583,217.670 oz
c) Dealer to customer stonex: 2957.34 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 192.401 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 497.932 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 1179 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 287 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 477 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 190 CONTRACTS OR 0.950 MILLION OZ ENTERTAINED A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST LOST 106 CONTRACTS TO 2345
SEPTEMBER LOST 3034 CONTRACTS UP TO 129,518 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 351 or 1.755 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 73,869 small//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6937 X5,000 oz = 34.685 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1179) AND the number of notices served upon today (351 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (6937) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(1179) minus number of notices served upon today (351)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 38.825 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 38.825 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 192.401 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 212,277/497.932 million. 42.65%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
JUNE 2 WITH GOLD UP $80.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.20 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD UP $22.35 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.71 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.61 TONNES
MAY 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.46 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD UP $69.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.89TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 947.66 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $1.58/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.773 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.876 MILLION OZ.
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.103 MILLION OZ.
MAY 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.38/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.375 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 478.040 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
UK’s looming crisis
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tears in Parliament revealed greater difficulties for the Labour government than generally appreciated. Inevitably, they are leading to a sterling crisis.
| Alasdair MacleodJul 8∙Paid |
Most of us understand the emotional impact when everything just gets too much. That was just such a moment when Rachel Reeves could not contain it during prime minister’s question time last week.
It matters not to us what the personal elements of her distress were, if any. But it is a racing certainty that the pressures of her responsibilities did get to her. And it is a reasonable supposition that the government being forced to back down totally over welfare cost savings was the issue.
We know two things suggesting that her policy assumptions at the time of the last budget were all wrong. There is the widely reported flight abroad of high-income taxpayers that is knocking a devastating hole in tax receipts. And the economic consequences of her first budget adding to global trade uncertainties are doing further damage to revenue receipts. Those are not all of her errors by any means; almost everything she did has had negative impacts on the economy and government revenues. Her revenue assumptions in last autumn’s budget have been blown out of the water, as the autumn statement will reveal.
Negative revenue reports will have been piling up at the treasury, to the alarm of its permanent officials. At the time of the budget, they may have even warned Reeves of the likely consequences of raiding high-earners, non-domiciles, effectively closing down swathes of private schools, and imposing higher employment costs on employers leading to job and revenue losses. She is reaping what she has sown. You can imagine Reeves, head in hands thinking, “Oh my God — what have I done!” Hence the tears.
The impossibility of cutting welfare spending
We can be sure that the last thing a Labour government would contemplate is cutting spending on welfare — to be forced to contemplate it is serious. Particularly with Starmer’s additional NATO spending commitments foisted on the treasury since the budget, there is no other option. Perhaps the attempt to pass legislation to save a piffling £5 billion was mishandled, but that misses the point. Labour MPs are elected to increase welfare spending, not reduce it. That is why the government had to climb down on the issue.
The last time this happened was in 1976. The Labour government was running similar tax policies to today’s. Chancellor Dennis Healey even boasted that he would squeeze property speculators “until the pips squeak”, misremembered but still descriptive of his overall approach with his ideological tax policies targeted against anyone deemed to possess wealth.
Under PM James Callaghan, the cabinet at that time included far-left luminaries such as Michael Foot, Tony Benn, Anthony Crossland, and Peter Shore — all of whom were committed to higher taxes and higher welfare distributions. Investors in sterling debt were faced with a sterling crisis, a government debt crisis, and a cabinet with economic policies designed to appease the far left.
The consequences of Labour’s economic policies at that time led to a buyer’s strike in the gilt market, with the Bank of England’s interest rates having to be raised to 15% in October 1976. On 14 October, £600 million of 15 ½% Treasury Loan 1998 was issued at £96% for a gross redemption yield of 15.65% — the highest coupon and yield at issue ever.
Things changed only when IMF officials were sent to bail Britain out. A secret mission met in London on 1 November. The cabinet initially rejected its proposals before being forced to accept them in December, after sterling had sunk to below $1.6, having been $2.02 at the beginning of the year.
It was a situation which in its essentials is similar to that of today, except the splits in Starmer’s cabinet are not so public. Another difference is that forex markets are currently absorbed by the dollar’s own weakness and are paying little attention to sterling’s true position.
Behind the IMF’s involvement in early 1976 was a lack of foreign currency reserves, exposing the UK to a potentially catastrophic run on the pound. Similarly, today foreign investors hold over $2.8 trillion equivalent in gilts and the UK’s foreign exchange holdings amount to only $117 billion, a ratio of 24 times. Not much margin to deal with a sterling crisis there.
There can be little doubt that behind treasury officials’ concerns are memories of the 1976 episode, and a similar lack of foreign reserves to protect the pound. They will be worried about the government’s inability to properly address the budget deficit, when internal papers are almost certainly pointing to a potential crisis that could lead to a buyers’ strike in the gilt market. We can be sure that the Bank of England shares these concerns with the treasury.
Yes, Reeve’s tears were real and should serve as a warning to us all of things to come.
3/ CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 230
WITH CRAIG HEMKE
5. COMMODITY REPORT…COPPER
Copper Soars To Record High As Trump Unleashes 50% Tariff
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 01:24 PM
Is President Trump ‘weaponizing’ copper?
Just over two months ago, we noted that drastic tightening of the Chinese copper markets and since then, copper stocks in China have continued to dwindle as stocks of copper at COMEX (US) have soared…
With COMEX copper stocks now at seven year highs while Chinese stocks are at multi-year lows…
With that as background, President Trump said Tuesday that he plans to set a 50 percent tariff on copper imports, as part of a set of looming sectoral tariffs, while also indicating he could offer pharmaceutical manufacturers at least a year before implementing levies on their foreign-made products.
Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday he was still planning tariffs on select industries, including drugs, semiconductors, and metals.
“I believe the tariff on copper we’re going to make it 50%,” Trump said when asked by a reporter what the rate on those products would be.
That effort is separate from Trump’s other effort to announce new country-specific tariff rates, which would not apply to products hit under his Section 232 efforts.
Copper futures in New York surged as much as 17% after Trump’s comments, the largest intraday gain in data going back to at least 1988…
…pushing the US price for the metal to a new record high…
Trump had directed the Commerce Secretary in late February to open an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion act and submit a report within 270 days.
The act gives the president broad authority to impose restrictions on national security grounds.
So, with Chinese stocks dwindling and US stocks soaring, ‘tariff-ing’ Copper right now is interesting in its timing…
The US won’t be able to produce any more copper to offset the shortfall – it takes years to set up a copper mine, though there’s plenty in the ground.
US copper smelters though have struggled to compete with lower-cost smelters in China.
Copper is vital for housing, electronics and cars, both EV and conventional ICE vehicles.
…remember, there’s no coincidences in Washington.
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.55 PTS OR 0.70%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 253.11 PTS OR 1.06%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 101.13 PTS OR 0.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.03%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1705 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1710/ Oil UP TO 67.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.24 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1705 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1710 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
END
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1705 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1710 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.55 PTS OR 0.70%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 253.11 PTS OR 1.06%
2. Nikkei closed UP 101.13 PTS OR 0.26%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLLY ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 96.88/ EURO RISES TO 1.1761 UP 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.48600//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.03…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6470/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.554 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.294%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.387
3j Gold at $3326.80 Silver at: 36.76 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 46 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.23
3m oil (WTI) into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.03// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.4860% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7959 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9361 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.399 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.935 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.901 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.02
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.608 UP 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.400 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.9434 UP 2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rebound As Markets Celebrate TACO Tuesday
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 08:30 AM
US equity futures rise as Trump leaves the door open for more discussions despite the 14 tariff letters sent yesterday and the extension of the deadline to Aug 1 which is “not 100% firm.” As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures rise 0.1% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% after US markets retreated on Monday from ATH on the back of increased tariffs on countries if deals are not reached (Japan/South Korea’s 25% were standouts). Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher, while industrials are leading cyclicals with financials mixed. 10Y TSY yields are higher by 3bps to 4.41% as the curve bear steepens and the USD is higher after erasing an earlier loss. Commodities are generally weaker although Brent crude has once again rebounded from session lows to trade just shy of $70/bbl. The macro data focus today is on Small Biz Optimism (prints in line with expectations), 1-year Inflation Expectations, and an update on Consumer Credit.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Tesla +1%, Nvidia +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft is little changed, Apple +0.06%).
- Clean energy stocks including Enphase Energy (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) fall after President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that were already pared back in his $3.4 trillion budget bill. Enphase Energy -2.9%, SolarEdge -6%
- Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) rises about 1% after TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch raised the recommendation on the credit-card issuer to buy from hold, seeing upside after its purchase of Discover and the potential for significant buybacks in the future.
- Ciena (CIEN) falls 3% as Morgan Stanley cuts to underweight, citing a lack of margin upside in the near term.
- Circle Internet (CRCL) slips about 2% after the stablecoin issuer was initiated with a second sell-equivalent rating, this time at Mizuho, with the bank seeing a 25% to 30% potential downside to consensus revenue for 2027.
- Datadog (DDOG) falls 2.5% as Guggenheim Securities cut to sell from neutral citing to near-term OpenAI optimization risk.
- Merit Medical Systems Inc. (MMSI) rises 2% after the the catheter maker reported preliminary 2Q revenue that topped estimates and named a veteran of Medtronic as its next CEO.
- UWM Holdings (UWMC) is up 2.3% after an upgrade to overweight from equal-weight by Barclays, which says the stock looks discounted enough to step in.
For stock markets, TACO Tuesday’s calm reflected traders’ belief in a familiar pattern of US President Donald Trump escalating his trade war only to later de-escalate. In the latest round, Trump said he was still open to negotiations and postponed duties of 25% or more on a list for trading partners until at least Aug. 1.
“Equity markets are focused on the positive news,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin. “Europe is working toward securing a framework agreement with the US and the July 9th deadline was pushed out by another month. The market has learned to focus on the facts more than following the talk.”
Ongoing talks with the European Union are likely to draw particular attention. The bloc is seeking to finalize a preliminary agreement this week that would lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond Aug. 1 while a permanent deal is hammered out.
The prospect of a better-than-expected trade deal helped boost the euro. The common currency rose as much as 0.5%, extending gains for the year as traders reacted to a Politico report that said the US offered a deal that would keep the 10% baseline tariffs, with exemptions for sensitive sectors.
“The fact that higher tariffs have become the default if no deal is reached does introduce a layer of risk that markets will have to price in,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “The dollar could struggle as this would have a negative impact on the growth outlook in the US.”
So far, the US economy has held up under the threat of a spiraling global trade war. Hiring is healthy, while the S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week. Still, some investors remain cautious that persistent policy uncertainty, along with concerns over rising levels of government debt and geopolitical headwinds, could eventually catch up with markets.
“Investors betting on the TACO trade might gradually face some disappointment,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital in Paris. “There’s a real possibility that tariffs are here to stay beyond Trump’s mandate as a permanent fiscal tool to fund growing deficits.”
European stocks are in a narrow range, with Stoxx 600 fluctuating between gains and losses as European Union negotiators rushed to conclude a preliminary trade deal with the US to avoid a spike in tariffs, with miners, financial services and travel stocks outperforming, while real estate shares lag. Drinkmakers gain on tariff news, while renewables drop as the Trump administration targets tax breaks. Germany’s DAX marginally outperforms. Here are the most notable European movers:
- Kinnevik gains as much as 6.1% after the Swedish investment group reported its latest earnings. Degroof says the results were “slightly better than expected,” with net asset values above the broker’s estimates
- Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 3.5%, among the top performers in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Tuesday, after Barclays initiated coverage on the stock with an overweight recommendation
- Shares of drinksmakers rise after reports saying the European Union is seeking an exemption from the US tariff for certain products; Remy Cointreau gains as much as 4.2%, Pernod Ricard +3.6%, Campari +2.7%
- Glencore shares rise as much as 2.1% after JPMorgan resumed its coverage with an overweight recommendation, citing value-accretive strategic optionality and a potential coal de-merger
- NTG Nordic Transport Group rises as much as 4.7% after being awarded a new overweight rating from Barclays, with analysts arguing the stock is inexpensive and has significant potential upside
- Renewables stocks fall in Europe as President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that were already pared back in his $3.4 trillion budget bill
- Dr Martens and Pandora are among stocks underperforming in Europe after President Trump outlined plans to impose tariffs on goods from key supplier countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia
- TGS shares drop as much as 12%, the most since April, after the Norwegian geophysical services company reported preliminary second-quarter results. The company noted “challenging operational conditions”
- Betsson shares drop as much as 6.1%, the most in three months, after DNB Carnegie downgrades the stock to hold from buy. Analysts note that the online gaming firm is set for a period of slower revenue growth
- Victrex shares slump as much as 15% to the lowest since August 2009 as the polymer supplier’s trading update disappoints analysts, who see scope for double-digit cuts to full-year pretax expectations
- AB Dynamics shares drop as much as 1.2% after the company announced that CEO James Routh is leaving the business to take up the same role at fellow London-listed Victrex
- BNP Paribas Bank Polska drops as much as 5.1% after the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development sold 2.35m shares via accelerated book-building at discount to Monday’s closing price
Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia advanced as investors shrugged off US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements and focused on room for further negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with SK Hynix and Hitachi providing the biggest lift while BHP Group and Nintendo weighed on performance. South Korea and Japan both advanced on cautious hopes that the countries can reach trade deals ahead of Trump’s newly-extended tariff deadline. Trump earlier sent letters to Tokyo and Seoul, threatening levies of 25% beginning Aug. 1. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong shares rose, helped by a rebound in e-commerce giants Meituan and Alibaba. Their shares had been falling recently due to concerns over an intensifying price war in the food delivery business.
In FX, we initially saw broad dollar weakness after President Trump suggested he’s open to more negotiations on tariffs beyond an August 1 deadline, but that weakness has since reversed and the dollar is trading near yesterday’s highs. Aussie dollar tops G-10 peers after the RBA surprise. The yen underperforms.
In rates, bonds sell off across Europe and the US, taking their cue from jitters in Japan over the country’s political situation and associated fiscal risks. Japanese 30-year bond yields rose as much as 13 basis points. Australian bonds also slump after the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged. That fed into weakness in the long-end across Europe. 30-year bund yields hit the highest level since March, benchmark 10-year yields up by around five basis points across countries. A flurry of supply is also weighing. 10-year Treasury yields up three basis points to 4.415%, at session highs with German and UK counterparts cheaper by an additional 2bp. Treasury auction cycle begins with $58 billion 3-year new issue at 1pm New York time, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield near 3.875% is about 10bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 0.4bp.
In commodities, gold is down by $12 to around $3,324/oz. Oil prices lower, Brent drops 0.7% to just over $69/barrel.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and May consumer credit (3pm). The Fed speaker slate blank, with minutes of June FOMC meeting are to be released at 2pm tomorrow.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX +0.2%, CAC 40 little changed
- 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.41%
- VIX -0.5 points at 17.28
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1194.53
- euro +0.4% at $1.175
- WTI crude -0.7% at $67.45/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Following Trump announcing 25% tariffs on good from Japan starting Aug 1, Japan and the US are “actively” continuing negotiations. A Top trade negotiator from Japan said Japan’s trade deal with the U.S. must include tariff concessions for its vital automobile industry. RTRS
- Trump said Monday the U.S. would resume providing Ukraine with arms to help it withstand Russian attacks after months of trying without success to draw Moscow into negotiations on ending the war. WSJ
- President Trump on Monday indicated there may be some wiggle room for nations to negotiate on trade despite his fresh threat of additional tariffs going into effect on Aug. 1. When asked, he said “No, I would say firm, but not 100 percent firm. If they call up and they say ‘we’d like to do something a different way,’ we’re going to be open to that. But essentially that’s the way it is right now.” The Hill
- Apple’s top AI models executive Ruoming Pang is leaving for Meta’s new superintelligence group, people familiar said, marking another setback in the iPhone maker’s struggling AI efforts. BBG
- Kevin Warsh, one of the lead candidates to replace Powell as Fed chief, said rates should be lower and doesn’t think tariffs will fuel inflation. BBG
- China has strongly criticized companies and local governments for fuelling overproduction that it blames for driving down prices, as inflation figures this week are expected to show that one of the country’s longest bouts of factory price deflation is running unchecked. FT
- China warned the Trump administration on Tuesday against reigniting trade tension by restoring tariffs on its goods next month, and threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the United States to cut China out of supply chains. RTRS
- Europe’s largest port is gearing up for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for ships carrying military supplies and planning where to divert cargo if war breaks out. FT
- Samsung’s profit more than halved on inventory writedowns following US curbs on Chinese-bound AI chips. BBG
- China’s CPCA says Tesla exported 10,115 Chinese-made vehicles in June (May 23,074)
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said regarding tariffs that the August 1st deadline is firm but he is open to other ideas, while Trump said he is close to making a trade deal with India and may adjust tariffs for some countries.
- White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to August 1st.
- US reportedly offered the EU a 10% tariff deal with caveats, although negotiations are still fluid, with any trade agreement subject to final approval by US President Trump, according to POLITICO.
- EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must show strength in trade negotiations with the US. Thereafter, German Finance Minister says if the EU does not reach a “fair” deal with he US, the bloc is ready to take counter-measures.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said haven’t been able to reach an agreement because Japan kept defending what needs to be defended, and will continue dialogue with the US and seek a chance of agreeing on a deal that benefits both countries. Ishiba added they were able to avert a hike in tariffs to 30%-35%, as result of past negotiations, and the US has proposed to continue talks until the new August 1st deadline.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they expect the US stance to change as they continue trade negotiations, while they will take necessary steps to help industries cope with US tariffs while communicating with other agencies.
- Japanese Tariff Negotiator Akazawa held a call with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Agreed to actively engage in trade negotiations. Auto sector is core to Japan’s economy, can not tolerate the fact 25% tariffs on autos, and the auto parts tariff is inflicting huge losses on Japanese firms. No point in striking a US deal without an autos agreement.
- South Korea will step up trade negotiations with the US to win mutually beneficial results and clear up uncertainties caused by tariffs, while it added that trade talks with the US will be a chance to advance both countries’ key industries through the ‘Renaissance Partnership’.
- The UK is set to miss the original deadline to close its steel/aluminium trade deal with the US, according to Sky’s Conway; Insiders say still some way from a breakthrough. However, “they are hopeful Donald Trump won’t raise UK tariffs from 25% to 50% for the time being, despite having promised to on July 9th”.
- Indian refiners reportedly plan to source around 10% of LPG imports from the US in 2026 in an attempt to reach a trade deal, according to Reuters sources.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the latest trade-related developments including US President Trump’s tariff letters to 14 countries so far including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40% and warnings against retaliation, although he also signed an Executive Order to delay the tariff deadline to August 1st. ASX 200 was indecisive as strength in tech and gold producers offset the losses in defensives, while an improvement in NAB Business Confidence was met with little fanfare as participants awaited the RBA rate decision which ultimately disappointed as the central bank defied the broad consensus for the first back-to-back cut since the pandemic, and instead decided to pause on rates through a 6-3 majority vote. Nikkei 225 recouped initial losses as recent currency weakness helped investors shrug off the tariff-related news with Japan facing a 25% tariff which is slightly higher than the 24% rate announced on Liberation Day. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the PBoC to support more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds, while it will also expand the Bond Connect to include Chinese brokers, funds, wealth managers and insurers.
Top Asian News
- PBoC said it will support more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds and will expand the bond connect to include Chinese brokers, funds, wealth managers and insurers, while it will also increase the quota under the swap connect.
- Chinese President Xi stressed developing the real economy to build up national strength and said the real economy should not be abandoned, nor should the traditional industries, according to Xinhua.
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is confident in driving economic growth and has the resources to counter external headwinds.
- RBA unexpectedly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.85% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision made by a majority of 6-3 votes, while it stated that the Board will be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. RBA also noted that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain although the Board continues to judge that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and the labour market remains strong. Furthermore, the Board remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply and it judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis.
- RBA Governor Bullock says there will be more data and news by the next meeting. Made good progress on inflation, been within the target range for only one quarter thus far. Effect of 50bps of cuts is still to flow through. CPI interpretation was different to the markets, decision was about timing rather than direction; monthly CPI is too volatile, the quarterly figure could be higher. Confident they are on a path to ease further. On an easing path, timing is the question. Was an active debate within the RBA boardroom, the difference between the sides was not about direction. Bullock will not say how she voted.
European bourses opened higher, welcoming Trump’s confirmation that the new tariff deadline is August 1st and as Monday’s letters did not have any narrative-shifting surprises. Since, benchmarks have come off best and are either side of the unchanged mark, Euro Stoxx 50 U/C. Sectors in-fitting with the above and as such are now mixed. Basic Resources lead amid gains in Glencore (+2.5%) after an upgrade by and favourable commentary from JPMorgan. Retail at the other end, hit by the tariff letters on Asian manufacturing nations which are a key destination for European names such as Pandora (-1.1%).
Top European News
- German Finance Minister Klingbeil says they see that economic sentiment has improved.
- UK OBR says “public finances in relatively vulnerable position and facing mounting risks”, adds UK debt set to exceed 270% of GDP by early 2070s.
FX
- USD has been giving back some of Monday’s gains, upside that occurred alongside an increase in angst into the tariff letters. Ultimately, the main takeaway was Trump providing more time for negotiation and as such the TACO trade remains in play. DXY is currently tucked within yesterday’s 96.89-97.66 range, currently just off highs of 97.43.
- AUD outperforms as the RBA surprisingly kept rates unchanged in a 6-3 vote, despite markets pricing in a 95% chance of a move pre-release. AUD/USD back above 0.65 but yet to breach Monday’s 0.6564 peak.
- Upside that has pulled the Kwi along with it, NZD/USD has made its way back onto a 0.60 handle but is still some way off yesterday’s 0.6063 high (current session peak @ 0.6034).
- EUR the next best, benefitting from reports which suggest 10% baseline tariffs remain an option for the EU. EUR/USD is currently firmer, just off a 1.1765 peak within Monday’s 1.1686-1.1790 range.
- GBP just about in the green against the USD, but Cable is back to its earlier 1.36 base. A bout of further pressure emerged on an OBR risk report which laid out that “public finances in relatively vulnerable position and facing mounting risks”, adds UK debt set to exceed 270% of GDP by early 2070s
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1534 vs exp. 7.1772 (Prev. 7.1506)
Fixed Income
- Complex pushed lower by the tariff deadline extension and a packed supply docket.
- USTs saw a slightly softer start to the day, given the constructive risk tone. Similar story for EGBs and Gilts, though the magnitude of downside has increased throughout the morning, USTs to a 110-25+ trough, taking out Monday’s 110-29 base and now teetering just above 110-25, the WTD low from the last week of June.
- EGBs also dented, but with losses much more pronounced. Bunds lower by near 50 ticks. As referenced, pressure in EGBs has been increasing, an intensification that began alongside the constructive European cash equity open; furthermore, supply is weighing and the passing of some taps e.g. Germany failed to provide any relief (unsurprising, the German auction was somewhat soft and we await details on EU supply).
- For the most part, an absence of specifics for the UK. No follow through in Gilts from the OBR reporting that domestic finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position and face mounting risks”. Nonetheless, Gilts lag with downside intensifying and the benchmark now looking to lows from mid-June, incl. 91.16.
- Germany sells EUR 3.754bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.20% 2030 Bobl: b/c 1.50x, average yield 2.26% & retention 24.92%.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are lacklustre, largely unaffected by trade updates with volumes light and awaiting further geopolitical updates from the Middle-East; Brent trades within a narrow USD 69.03 to 69.61/bbl range, re-approaching overnight lows following news regarding the resumption of Israel-Hamas Doha talks.
- Precious metals softer, dented by the broadly constructive risk tone in-fitting with pressure seen in other traditional havens (i.e. fixed and JPY). Though, downside is limited thus far with the softer USD and general tariff uncertainty, despite the welcome confirmation of an August 1st deadline, preventing a more concerted move lower. XAU down to a USD 3324/oz base and within Monday’s USD 3296-3343/oz band.
- Base metals, in contrast, welcome Trump signing an executive order pushing the tariff deadline to August 1st (prev. July 9th) and as the first batch of tariff letters didn’t contain anything particularly shocking. 3M LME Copper holds at the upper-end of a USD 9793-9889 band. However, it remains shy of Monday’s USD 9871 peak and last week’s USD 9889 best.
- US President Trump signed an Executive Order aiming to end subsidies for foreign-controlled energy sources.
Geopolitics
- US President Trump said he’s got great cooperation from countries neighbouring Israel, when asked about Palestinian relocation plans. Trump noted Iran talks are scheduled and that Iran will not be a nuclear state, while he hopes they don’t have to do another strike on Iran.
- White House said US Envoy Witkoff is to travel to Doha later this week for a Gaza ceasefire, while it was separately reported that Witkoff said they have an opportunity to get a peace deal in Gaza and that the Iran meeting will be in the next week or so.
- Subsequently, Iran’s MFA Spokesman told state TV: “We have not handed in any requests to meet with the Americans”, via France24.
- UKMTO says a vessel sustained significant damage and lost all propulsion after being attacked by 5 rocket grenades, 51NM West of Yemen’s Hodeidah; vessel is under continuous attack and authorities are investigating.
- Ceasefire talks with Gaza have recommenced, in Doha, via journalist Elster (08:49BST/03:49ET).
- US President Trump said they have to send more weapons to Ukraine and that they have to defend themselves, while the Pentagon later announced the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine.
- German Foreign Ministry says the Chinese Military has used a laser to target a German aircraft in EU operation aspides; Chinese ambassador summoned,
US Event Calendar
- 6:00 am: Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.6, prior 98.8
- 3:00 pm: May Consumer Credit, est. 10.55b, prior 17.87b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
A quiet day where we were all waiting for tariff news sprung into life just after Europe closed yesterday as the first major tariff news of the week broke. In a series of posts on social media, President Trump announced new tariff rates on several trading partners. He started off by announcing 25% tariff rates against Japan and South Korea, effective August 1st. This was followed by “trade letters” to a further twelve countries including South Africa (30% rate), Malaysia (25%), and Indonesia (32%). President Trump also said that “any goods transshipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariff,” while noting that these would be separate from the sectoral tariffs. The headline rates for most countries announced yesterday were around the same levels as the Liberation Day tariffs, but President Trump also said that if countries were to raise their tariffs in response, then “whatever number” they choose will be added onto the 25% charged by the US.
White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced that more letters will be arriving throughout the week. After sending the posts, the President signed an executive order that effectively delays the new tariff rates until August 1, prolonging the current 10% tariff rate and giving nations more time to meet the trade demands from the White House. The President continued to signal he was open to deals, saying the August 1st deadline was “not 100% firm” and that they could “maybe adjust a little bit, depending.” Overnight, Politico reported that while a US-EU trade deal had not been finalised, the US had offered the EU a 10% tariff rate with caveats. Given the higher rates seen earlier in the day for other trading partners, the EUR has rallied (+0.32%) overnight and is back to levels before the letters started rolling out yesterday.
Stocks fell in response to the tariff news, although the S&P 500, which closed -0.79%, was already -0.6% just before the announcement in anticipation of the noon Washington timeline that had been given over the weekend with regards to letters being sent out. The index was down -1.25% at the lows of the day, before rebounding as investors priced in the possibility of trade deals getting over the line for larger trading partners before putative tariffs kick in.
Within US equity markets, the Magnificent 7 (-1.03%) underperformed while following a similar pattern to the broad index, although the index was also weighed down by Tesla (-6.79%), which saw the biggest decline in the entire S&P after Musk announced the formation of the “America Party” over the weekend. Small caps, which have less margin to absorb tariff costs, underperformed by even more as the Russell 2000 fell by -1.55%. Meanwhile, US Treasuries also struggled, with the 10yr yield up +3.4bps to 4.379%, whilst the 30yr yield (+5.4bps) rose to 4.92%. In turn, that helped to support the US Dollar index (+0.31%), which has stabilised around a 3-year low in the last week.
President Trump posted late on Sunday that any country aligning with the “Anti-American policies” of the BRICS would face an added 10% tariff, and this didn’t help the likes of Brazil’s IBOVESPA (-1.26%). The 10 member states met in Rio Janeiro over the weekend, where they condemned US and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as the US unilateral tariffs. So, yet another tariff threat that adds to the uncertainty.
In the meantime, one ongoing theme was the continued pressure on the Fed from the administration. That came as Peter Navarro wrote in a Substack post that Chair Powell’s policy was causing American households “acute financial pain” and that if Powell “will not voluntarily adjust course, the board must act decisively to prevent further economic harm.” We’ll get the June FOMC meeting minutes release tomorrow, so that should offer more details on how officials are thinking about rate cuts. At face value, the latest tariff letters, and the fact that the deadlines seem to be pushing towards August 1st, thus prolonging uncertainty, means a September Fed cut will become more difficult unless there is strong evidence of a deteriorating economy.
Over in Europe, equities had put in a more positive performance, but closed before the stream of tariff headlines came through. Sentiment was also boosted, however, by hopes of a trade deal, with EU spokespeople earlier confirming to Bloomberg that they were close to a trade agreement with the US, after a “good exchange” between Von Der Leyen and President Trump. So that meant the STOXX 600 (+0.44%) and the DAX (+1.20%) both advanced. European futures are only lower by around a couple of tenths this morning. Away from the EU, the FTSE 100 (-0.19%) lagged behind yesterday. European sovereign bonds traded more in line with US Treasuries, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.6bps), OATs (+4.2bps) and BTPs (+4.7bps) all moving higher. We also found out German industrial production rose +1.2% in May (vs. -0.2% expected), which was relatively stronger than the French and Spanish numbers last week.
Asian equity markets are higher this morning shrugging off the threats of increased US trade tariffs as President Trump left the door open for additional trade negotiations. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.46%) is leading gains while the Hang Seng (+0.86%), the CSI (+0.74%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.58%) and the Nikkei (+0.28%) are also higher. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.19%) is trading lower but has hardly had time to react to a surprise 6-3 decision, just before we go to print, to hold rates rather than cut them as widely expected. The RBA’s statement pointed to an “uncertain outlook” as the reason for holding rates. The Australian dollar reacted sharply, jumping to 0.6539 against the dollar, while policy-sensitive 3-year government bond yields have climbed 14bps, 10 of which have come in the last few minutes after the decision. Governor Michele Bullock’s upcoming press briefing is now the focus of market attention. Elsewhere US equity futures are flat to up a tenth of a percent.
On geopolitics, yesterday Iran announced that Israel had tried to assassinate its President during last month’s attacks, and that US strikes has severely damaged its nuclear infrastructure and equipment. In an interview with Tucker Carlson on Monday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshhkian said that the US could resolve its differences with Iran through dialogue and talks, but said it was difficult to trust the US and asked how they could be sure Israel wouldn’t be given permission to attack again. Amidst the newsflow, WTI rose +1.39% to $67.9/bbl and Brent crude was up +1.87% to $69.58/bbl even with the surprise oil production increases announced by OPEC+ over the weekend. It’s back down around half a percent this morning.
To the day ahead now, we’ll have the US June NFIB small business optimism, the NY Fed’s inflation expectations, and Germany’s trade balance for May. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel.
2b European Opening report
2c. Asian opening report
Trump sends out trade letters, EU not a recipient but reportedly offered 10% rate with caveats – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 01:22 AM
- US President Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand, with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40%.
- Trump also warned against retaliation, although he also delayed the tariff deadline to August 1st – leaving room for negotiation.
- APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the Trump letters; Wall Street closed lower.
- RBA defied the broad consensus and instead decided to pause on rates through a 6-3 majority vote.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.
- DXY is steady, AUD is the clear outperformer across the majors, USD/JPY sits on a 146 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, US NY Fed SCE, NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, RBA’s Bullock, ECB’s Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany & US.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks declined amid trade tensions between the US and its trading partners with President Trump sending letters to over a dozen countries announcing tariff levels ranging from 25% to 40%, while the tariff levels on the countries were relatively similar to the tariff levels announced on “Liberation Day”. Furthermore, Trump warned against any retaliation but also signed an Executive Order to delay the tariff deadline to August 1st.
- SPX -0.79% at 6,230, NDX -0.79% at 22,686, DJI -0.94% at 44,406, RUT -1.55% at 2,214.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump’s letter to Japan stated that from August 1st, the US will charge Japan a tariff of only 25% on any and all Japanese products sent to the US, separate from all sectoral tariffs and goods transshipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariff. Trump warned “If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25% that we charge.” Furthermore, he stated “If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States, and eliminate your Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter.” Trump also sent a letter to South Korea which declared a tariff of 25% on any and all Korean products sent into the US, separate from all sectoral tariffs. Furthermore, Trump’s letters announced to charge Malaysia, Tunisia and Kazakhstan tariffs of 25%, South Africa and Bosnia tariffs of 30%, Indonesia a tariff of 32%, Serbia and Bangladesh tariffs of 35%, Cambodia and Thailand tariffs of 36%, Laos and Myanmar tariffs of 40%. It was separately reported that the EU will not be receiving a letter setting out higher tariffs from the US, according to Reuters citing EU sources.
- US President Trump said regarding tariffs that the August 1st deadline is firm but he is open to other ideas, while Trump said he is close to making a trade deal with India and may adjust tariffs for some countries.
- White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to August 1st.
- White House Press Secretary said they are close on other trade deals, while a White House official said tariffs won’t stack.
- US reportedly offered the EU a 10% tariff deal with caveats, although negotiations are still fluid, with any trade agreement subject to final approval by US President Trump, according to POLITICO.
- EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must show strength in trade negotiations with the US.
- EU is looking into a possible deal on cars to offset US car exports against imports, according to Reuters citing EU sources.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said haven’t been able to reach an agreement because Japan kept defending what needs to be defended, and will continue dialogue with the US and seek a chance of agreeing on a deal that benefits both countries. Ishiba added they were able to avert a hike in tariffs to 30%-35%, as result of past negotiations, and the US has proposed to continue talks until the new August 1st deadline.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they expect the US stance to change as they continue trade negotiations, while they will take necessary steps to help industries cope with US tariffs while communicating with other agencies.
- South Korea will step up trade negotiations with the US to win mutually beneficial results and clear up uncertainties caused by tariffs, while it added that trade talks with the US will be a chance to advance both countries’ key industries through the ‘Renaissance Partnership’.
- US will not impose a new 10% tariff against a BRICS member immediately if ‘anti-American’ policy actions are taken. according to a Reuters source. It was also reported that Brazilian President Lula said if US President Trump issues tariffs, other countries have the right to do the same, while he added that the world needs to find a way for transactions not to depend on the US dollar.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- A joint NY and SF Fed paper cited still ongoing risk of near-zero interest rates and noted uncertainty keeps the risk of very low rates alive, while it added the Fed has more space to cut rates now without hitting the zero fed funds rate.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the latest trade-related developments including US President Trump’s tariff letters to 14 countries so far including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40% and warnings against retaliation, although he also signed an Executive Order to delay the tariff deadline to August 1st.
- ASX 200 was indecisive as strength in tech and gold producers offset the losses in defensives, while an improvement in NAB Business Confidence was met with little fanfare as participants awaited the RBA rate decision which ultimately disappointed as the central bank defied the broad consensus for the first back-to-back cut since the pandemic, and instead decided to pause on rates through a 6-3 majority vote.
- Nikkei 225 recouped initial losses as recent currency weakness helped investors shrug off the tariff-related news with Japan facing a 25% tariff which is slightly higher than the 24% rate announced on Liberation Day.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the PBoC to support more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds, while it will also expand the Bond Connect to include Chinese brokers, funds, wealth managers and insurers.
- US equity futures were rangebound as participants reflected on President Trump’s tariff letters and deadline extension.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.
FX
- DXY traded uneventfully overnight but held on to most its recent spoils after strengthening as trade developments dominated headlines with US President Trump sending letters to 14 countries so far including Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Laos, South Africa, Thailand, Serbia, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Cambodia and Tunisia, with tariff levels ranging from 25% to 40%. The key differences in the trade letters when compared to “Liberation Day”, are the emerging theme of discontent from the US administration on transhipped goods, while Trump warned against retaliation and threatened to add any tariff increase by countries to the tariff levels they had just received, but essentially kicked the can down the road with the tariff deadline pushed back to August 1st.
- EUR/USD nursed some of the prior day’s losses with the mild recovery facilitated by a report that the US offered a deal to the EU for a 10% baseline tariff on EU goods with some exceptions for sensitive sectors including aircraft and spirits.
- GBP/USD gradually edged higher after the recent whipsawing through the 1.3600 level amid the mildly positive risk tone.
- USD/JPY attempted to extend on gains after reclaiming the 146.00 status owing to the recent momentum in the dollar.
- Antipodeans regained some composure following yesterday’s cyclical underperformance with AUD/USD further boosted after the RBA surprised markets by unexpectedly keeping rates unchanged through a 6-3 vote, which also briefly supported NZD ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ rate decision.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1534 vs exp. 7.1772 (Prev. 7.1506)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures got some slight reprieve after declining yesterday as the curve steepened ahead of supply and FOMC Minutes.
- Bund futures languished near the prior day’s lows amid reports of the US offering the EU 10% tariffs with caveats, while German Trade Data and a Bobl auction are scheduled for today.
- 10yr JGB futures struggled for direction amid the choppy mood in Tokyo and with prices not helped by weaker demand at the 5-year JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures slightly pulled back after advancing throughout most of the prior day despite bearish OPEC+ reports, as Saudi OSPs and tariff updates provided some tailwinds.
- US President Trump signed an Executive Order aiming to end subsidies for foreign-controlled energy sources.
- Spot gold took a breather after yesterday’s notable rebound off support around the USD 3,300/oz level.
- Copper futures were rangebound amid the lack of conviction in the region as participants digested the latest global trade developments.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually trickled lower to beneath the USD 108k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC said it will support more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds and will expand the bond connect to include Chinese brokers, funds, wealth managers and insurers, while it will also increase the quota under the swap connect.
- Chinese President Xi stressed developing the real economy to build up national strength and said the real economy should not be abandoned, nor should the traditional industries, according to Xinhua.
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is confident in driving economic growth and has the resources to counter external headwinds.
- RBA unexpectedly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.85% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision made by a majority of 6-3 votes, while it stated that the Board will be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. RBA also noted that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain although the Board continues to judge that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and the labour market remains strong. Furthermore, the Board remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply and it judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis.
DATA RECAP
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jun) 5.0 (Prev. 2.0)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Jun) 9.0 (Prev. 0.0)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he’s got great cooperation from countries neighbouring Israel, when asked about Palestinian relocation plans. Trump noted Iran talks are scheduled and that Iran will not be a nuclear state, while he hopes they don’t have to do another strike on Iran.
- White House said US Envoy Witkoff is to travel to Doha later this week for a Gaza ceasefire, while it was separately reported that Witkoff said they have an opportunity to get a peace deal in Gaza and that the Iran meeting will be in the next week or so.
- Israeli delegation’s refusal of provision for free and safe entry of aid to Gaza is the main obstacle in ceasefire talks and prevents progress, according to Reuters citing Palestinian sources.
- Israeli officials think US President Trump could give them the green light to attack Iran again if the Iranians try to move enriched uranium or restore enrichment facilities, according to Axios.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia is to supply Iran with enriched uranium at a level sufficient for a peaceful nuclear program, according to Al Jazeera.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said they have to send more weapons to Ukraine and that they have to defend themselves, while the Pentagon later announced the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky vowed to replace Kyiv’s ambassador to Washington who was criticised by Trump allies in a move expected to come alongside a major wartime cabinet reshuffle, according to FT
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
soaring rice prices in Japan may bring the government down and in so doing spark a global bond crisis!
(zerohedge)
Will Japan’s Rice Price Shock Lead To Government Collapse And Spark A Global Bond Crisis
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 06:55 AM
A little over a month ago, we first (and the Economist about a month later), summarized the plight of Japan’s soaring inflation and contracting economy with one word: rice…. well, technically it was a few more words. This is what we said:
What is ironic, is that Japan does not actually have high core inflation; it does however have soaring rice prices which have skewed inflation expectations across the population as rice is a huge component of the overall CPI basket. Meanwhile the BOJ is scrambling to contain inflation – which has tumbled ex food with real wages near record lows – and is tightening conditions by raising rates even though it has zero control over food inflation. However, as a by product of its monetary policies and strong yen, the bond market is crashing every day now, and soon this bond crash will spread to Japan’s banks and global markets, sparking a global crisis.
TL/DR: Japan will unleash the next financial crash because the Japanese are now poor farmers.
Fast forward to today when, with just two weeks until a critical election in Japan, attention is finally turning to this most important commodity for Japan… and perhaps the world. And it starts with Japan’s Nikkei profiling what we said was ground zero of Japan’s inflation crisis: rice farmers.
On a lush green plain bordered by mountains in northern Japan’s Yamagata prefecture, Nobuhiko Kurosawa does what 20 generations of his family have done before him: He grows rice. There is, however, a problem.
Tending to seedlings under a piercing June sun, Kurosawa finds himself in territory unfamiliar to his predecessors. A shortage of the commodity kickstarted by an extreme 2023 heat wave and compounded by an inability of the zombified, extremely heavily-subsidized local rice industry to quickly adapt to changing conditions, has sent rice prices skyrocketing, doubling within a year.
That shortage has brought rationing of sales in big-city supermarkets and made the humble staple of the Japanese diet the focus of a fierce cost-of-living debate in a campaign for an election to the upper house of parliament on July 20. Were the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to lose its existing majority in the upper house, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s position could be at risk, sparking a political crisis in Japan that could have profound consequences for both fiscal and monetary policy, not only in Japan but across the globe.
From his 30 hectares of paddies, Kurosawa supplies rice far and wide, from a nearby rice ball shop to businesses across Japan and overseas.
“We received inquiries from new customers, but we were unable to sell to them because we already had contracts with existing customers,” he told Nikkei Asia. “Our company also experienced a shortage of rice, and last year we had no choice but to narrow down our business partners before the summer.”
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ishiba leads his conservative LDP toward the upper house elections with moribund approval ratings hovering in the mid-30% range, and inflation identified as the biggest issue of concern among survey respondents, according to a Nikkei/TV Tokyo poll. Just like in the US before Trump crushed Kamala Harris in every battleground state.
Having lost its majority in lower house elections under Ishiba’s stewardship last year, the LDP, the dominant force in Japanese politics for much of the last 70 years, needs to hold on to the slim majority it holds in the upper house, with a coalition partner, or face daunting challenges in pursuing a policy program as a minority administration in both houses. If the LDP performs poorly, Ishiba’s premiership will be in doubt, the Nikkei warns.
He faces a daunting uphill climb: the outrage around the soaring price of rice – hitting its highest this year for 30 years – has coursed through mainstream and social media debate in Japan for months. Recently even Donald Trump weighed in, criticizing Japan for not agreeing in increasingly tough trade talks to tackle the crisis by importing more U.S. rice, a move that would be viewed in a dim light by Japan’s farming lobby, a key LDP electoral base. It would, however, send the price of rice plunging, demonstrating once again just why government subsidies are always a two-edged sword.
“The rice shortage that began in the summer of 2024 was due to a shortage of rice produced in 2023,” according to Masayoshi Honma, distinguished professor at the Asian Growth Research Institute. “To compensate for this, advance purchases of 2024 crop rice have also occurred, driving up prices.”
Last year, demand for rice also surged due to the growing number of foreign visitors to Japan – a record 37 million – thanks to the plunging yen (which in turn sparked a burst of non-rice inflation higher) as well as a growing appetite for dining out and the relative affordability of rice compared to bread and noodles, said Kunio Nishikawa, a professor at Ibaraki University specializing in agricultural economics. Overall, Nishikawa calculates, “a supply-demand gap” of approximately 440,000 tons developed, an amount he estimates to be the equivalent of 1.8 months’ rice sales volume at supermarkets nationwide in Japan.
Since then, Japanese television news and talk shows have been filled with daily reports on people waiting in lines to buy rice, how to cook old rice so that it still tastes good and politicians’ statements about rice. In May a furor engulfed the then-agriculture minister after he said he had never bought rice himself as it was always presented to him as a gift by supporters.
Former prime ministerial aspirant Shinjiro Koizumi, a rising star in the LDP and son of a former premier, was swiftly appointed agriculture minister with a brief to get a grip on the rice crisis. Koizumi immediately pledged to halve rice prices to 2,000 yen ($14) per 5 kilograms, releasing government-stockpiled supplies in late May. Emergency stockpile sales, however, were promptly halted just hours later, after retailers snapped up all they could buy in apparent rationing amid soaring demand Still, shelves in the capital Tokyo are frequently empty as of early July as stores sell out, often rationing sales to one bag per family per day.
Which goes back to what we said almost two months ago: because the Japanese have become poor rice farmers, a global financial may be imminent. Some more background.
While many in Japan seek out rice for daily consumption, as the world’s fourth-biggest economy has developed (not to mention aged), so too have tastes for fancier and foreign foods. Demand for rice as a staple has dropped over recent decades to levels well below those seen in developing economies – to 73.5 kilograms per capita in 2022, according to World Population Review, equal to a third of Vietnam’s consumption.
As production of staple rice for Japanese consumers has fallen broadly in line with the demand decline in recent decades, production of rice for other uses – including animal feedstock and a small amount of exports – has begun to take off.
Shunsuke Orikasa, chief researcher at the Distribution Economics Institute of Japan, points out that as a result of a prolonged surplus of rice before 2023, “The price of rice had fallen to the point where producers would incur losses if they continued to grow rice as usual. For farmers, it was more profitable to switch to producing rice for non-staple use as instructed by the government and receive subsidies for it, so they moved toward reducing the amount of rice produced for the table.”
And then prices exploded.
Back in Yamagata, farmer Kurosawa said the delicate staple rice supply-demand balance has been upended. “Japan has been producing just enough to meet demand, so the extreme heat of the year before last was too much to handle,” he said.
On the other end of the supply chain, consumers are also concerned about the long term. A 26-year-old man living in Tokyo told Nikkei Asia he used to eat rice every day, but has changed habits due to the rise in rice prices since last summer.
“I’ve started eating pasta and udon noodles instead of rice, and I buy rice less often,” he said. While he welcomed lower prices since Agriculture Minister Koizumi was appointed, “I can’t say I approve of him because I don’t know what will happen to rice prices in the long term, and I don’t plan to go to vote.”
A 54-year-old woman living in Kanagawa Prefecture to the west of Tokyo said she also now shops differently. “The branded rice I used to buy online became too expensive, so I stopped buying it,” she said. “However, since rice is something I eat every day, I now buy rice sold at a nearby cheap supermarket.”
She welcomed Koizumi’s intervention, saying, “If he had not been in power, we would have had to buy rice at a higher price, so I’m grateful.” But she added, “I don’t want the LDP to become a one-party system, so I won’t vote for them.”
There is some good news: according to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, the average price of rice at supermarkets dropped 3.0% in the week to June 22, the latest date for which numbers are available, versus the previous week. But the news is mostly bad: at 3,801 yen per 5kg bag, the price was still up 71% year-on-year, although granted the price had been twice as high as the same period last year until recently.
Japan’s image as a global giant in rice is rooted in history: According to U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization data, it was the world’s fifth-biggest producer in 1970, but by 2020 it was in 11th position, one rank behind the U.S.
That decline began when Japan’s government implemented a policy of reducing staple rice production to maintain prices, starting around 1970, in part to retain the support of the farming lobby for the LDP, which has been in power for all but a few years since the mid-1950s. Although the policy was abolished in 2018, production adjustments continued through the system, such as subsidies for converting to other crops such as feed rice.
Yoshihisa Godo, professor at Meiji Gakuin University, said that what Japan is now dealing with is not a “rice shortage,” but a “shortage of staple rice.” The conversion of staple rice paddies to other crops has progressed, and the area of non-staple rice paddies has increased to more than 10% of total rice cultivation, according to Godo.
Amid the change in the rice business, the role of Japan Agriculture (JA), the national cooperative organization through which many farmers do business, is changing. Kazuhiro Koutsusa, a former JA employee and agricultural management consultant, said the percentage of rice sold through agricultural co-ops has declined significantly compared to several decades ago. Farmers can now communicate with buyers while working in the fields, finding customers themselves thanks to the spread of mobile phones, social media and the internet.
While the current staple rice price is roughly double that of last year, it remains at the same level as 30 years ago. In fact, Shigeru Someya, a rice farmer in Chiba Prefecture near Tokyo, said, “The rice prices of just a few years ago were less than half of what they were 30 years ago.”
Over the past few decades, the cost of machinery, materials, and fertilizers used in rice farming has risen, Someya said. At the time, the selling price of rice not only failed to increase but actually declined. Along with industrialization in adjacent areas offering new job prospects, that contributed to many abandoning rice farming. Someya currently cultivates rice on approximately 155 hectares of paddies, but the expansion of his operation was made possible by the fact that around 350 to 400 farming households that used to operate around his farm ceased rice production.
* * *
The government’s efforts to tackle rice price rises have been met with skepticism from the rice industry, with farmers and experts dismissing them as merely election-year measures that don’t address structural problems.
“Everything Koizumi is doing is election strategy; he is not talking about fundamental reform,” said Asian Growth Research Institute professor Honma, and he is right: what Koizumi is doing is literally identical to what Joe Biden did when he drained half of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep gas prices low in 2022 and 2023.
For the Distribution Economics Institute of Japan’s chief researcher Orikasa, the issue has wider implications. “From a broader perspective, the government’s attempt to control the price of a specific commodity in a free market economy is a challenge to capitalism,” he said.
Farmer Someya, meanwhile, expressed concern about Koizumi’s introduction of a standard price of 2,000 yen per 5kg bag. “While the government might say, ‘It’s 2,000 yen because it’s stockpiled rice,’ consumers might come to see 2,000 yen as the standard price even for new rice,” Someya said.
In the meantime, Japanese consumers are showing greater interest in imported rice than ever before, indicating a potential solution at least for buyers. Imports of staple food rice, subject to high tariffs, exceeded 10,000 metric tons for the first time in May, an increase of 126 times from the monthly average last year, according to data from the Ministry of Finance.
Aeon, Japan’s largest retailer, began selling blends of Japanese and American rice in April. In early June, it started selling California-grown Calrose rice, which it says is “selling better than expected.”
Reflecting at the end of a long day in his Yamagata paddies, farmer Kurosawa didn’t hide his concern for the future.
“The Japanese government has already released most of its rice reserves, so if this summer turns out to be as hot as the year before last, it could be disastrous,” he said. “If we have no reserves left and the quality of the rice has deteriorated due to the extreme heat, Japan may have to import a considerable amount. The food problem is not [just] a problem for farmers, but a problem for everyone who eats.”
At that time, Japan’s rice inflation – which also happens to be a component of the country’s core CPI – will explode and spark total chaos at the BOJ which will be scrambling to hike rates just because Japan’s farmers are unable to feed the country’s giant appetite for rice; in the process they will spark an economic depression.
Turning to the political dimension of the rice crisis, Bloomberg chimes in and writes that “a shortage of rice in Japan has caused the price of the household staple to surge, exacerbating the country’s cost of living challenges and fueling resentment among the population.”
As of June, a 5-kilogram bag of rice cost on average ¥4223 ($29.15) — almost double what it did a year ago. In some cases schools have cut back on the days they serve rice for lunch. Shops and restaurants have hiked the prices of their rice dishes.
With people angry over the record high prices, the issue has the potential to inflict damage on Ishiba and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in elections this July.
The problem for Japan is that the outrage against Ishiba comes at a crucial time for Japan (the world’s most indebted nation by far): when it is facing a domestic fiscal crisis, coupled with trade war with the US.
In a note published today by SocGen‘s Jin Kanzaki (available to pro subscribers), the strategist reminds us that the Upper House election is scheduled for 20 July, and writes that following the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election held on 22 June, the LDP is no longer the largest party there. However, both the cabinet’s and the ruling party’s (LDP and Komeito) approval ratings in early June rose by 6.0 and 4.7%, respectively, from May. This rise is thought to be due to a degree of appreciation for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Koizumi’s efforts to lower rice prices, namely dumping emergency stockpiled rice at low prices (in the process assuring much higher prices in the long-term). However, a survey conducted at the end of June showed that approval ratings for the cabinet and the ruling party had again fallen by 5.0 and 4.0%, respectively, from early June.
The election will test the performance of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government and the opposition parties. Key issues include inflation countermeasures—such as consumption tax cuts and cash handouts—and social security reform. A total of 522 candidates are expected to run for 125 contested seats, with the ruling coalition aiming to secure a majority when combined with its 75 non-contested seats. Opposition parties seek to prevent the ruling bloc from winning a majority of the contested seats. The outcome of tariff negotiations with the US, government efforts to lower rice prices, and the results in 32 single-member districts (where vote splitting among opposition candidates could benefit the ruling party) are expected to influence the election
As the ruling LDP has 75 seats that are not up for re-election this time, it can secure a majority with just 50 seats. Assuming that Komeito wins 10 seats and that the LDP wins a record low of 12 seats under the proportional representation system and one seat in each of the 13 multi-seat districts, the number of seats the LDP must win in single-seat districts to avoid losing its majority will be 15 seats. But given that the opposition parties are split among themselves while there are only 32 single-seat districts and the cabinet’s and ruling party’s approval ratings are declining again, at this stage SocGen only sees a 50-50 chance of the ruling party being able to maintain its majority.
There’s much more in the full note (see here), but here is SocGen’s conclusion on the four most likely scenarios following the Upper House election:
Scenario 1 (50%): the ruling party maintains its majority
- The ruling party maintains its majority and Prime Minister Ishiba continues in office. In this case, cash payments will be implemented as part of the autumn economic measures, fiscal concerns will subside, and long-term interest rates will remain stable.
Scenario 2 (20%): the ruling party loses its majority and the next PM is Koizumi or Hayashi
- The ruling party loses its majority and Prime Minister Ishiba resigns. However, the ruling party will continue to form the government with a minority in both houses of the Diet as the opposition parties will refuse to join the coalition government. Either Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi or Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi are likely to be selected as the next prime minister. In this case, as part of the autumn economic measures, the consumption tax rate on food will be lowered to 5% and the provisional tax rate on gasoline abolished. Meanwhile, long-term interest rates will rise initially, but eventually return to the level of Scenario 1.
Scenario 3 (20%): the ruling party loses its majority and the next PM is Takaichi
- The ruling party loses a majority, and Prime Minister Ishiba resigns. However, the ruling party will continue to form the government with a minority in both houses of the Diet while the opposition parties will not join the coalition government. Former Minister of Economic Security Takaichi will be selected as the next prime minister. Under this scenario, as part of the autumn economic measures, the consumption tax rate on food will be lowered to 0%, while long-term interest rates will rise from the beginning of the government’s term and remain high. In addition, the view that the BoJ will postpone rate hikes will become stronger, so the yield curve will steepen.
Scenario 4 (10%): a coalition government centred on the opposition parties is formed
- The ruling party loses its majority, and Prime Minister Ishiba resigns. As a result, a coalition government centred on the opposition parties (opposition parties + ruling party or opposition alliance) will be formed. Under this scenario, as part of the autumn economic measures, the consumption tax rate on food will be lowered to 0% and the provisional tax rate on gasoline abolished, so long-term interest rates will rise significantly from the beginning of the government’s term and remain high.
Bottom line: according to the French bank, there is a 50% chance that the outcome of the Japanese election in two weeks leads to a government crisis, which sends bonds yields in Japan soaring. And since global rates – especially at the long-end – are painfully interconnected in this day and age of soaring budget deficits, a bond market crash in Japan would also immediately result in a bond crisis around the globe.
Finally, what does all this mean for the yen? For one answer, we go to UBS Japan Execution Sales trader Sara Onozato who writes that “USDJPY is showing more signs of stagnation, with limited movement due to a lack of strong buying incentives for the yen and ongoing dollar selling driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts.”
As of June 30, the yen was trading around 144, with minimal monthly depreciation compared to more pronounced shifts in April and May. This stagnation is attributed to simultaneous weakness in both currencies. The dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, while the yen has also weakened against European currencies, reaching 170 in EURJPY and 182 in CHFJPY.
In the futures market, net short positions in the dollar against major currencies have reached their largest levels in nearly two years. This trend is driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve Borad (FRB) is leaning toward a more dovish stance, favoring interest rate cuts. Market participants have fully priced in two rate cuts in the second half of the year and anticipate further declines in interest rates and a weaker dollar. Speculative net long positions in the yen are still high, limiting further upside.
The outcome of tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States is seen as a key factor, with the July 9 deadline approaching. The US administration has maintained a firm stance on imposing a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles and criticized Japan for not importing US rice. The BoJ’s Tankan survey released on July 1 showed an unexpected improvement in business sentiment among large manufacturers. If tariff uncertainty clears, the BoJ could raise rates as early as September, potentially pushing the yen to 140 against the US. Conversely, stalled tariff negotiations could lead to further yen depreciation. The House of Councillors election on July 20 adds another layer of political uncertainty, especially after the ruling coalition lost seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.
UBS concludes that while most expect USDJPY to remain rangebound between 142 and 146, several key developments could push the pair beyond this range. A move toward 140 could occur if uncertainty around US-Japan auto tariffs is resolved and broader sentiment improves, especially following the BoJ’s recent Tankan survey, which showed an unexpected uptick in business confidence. This, on top of expectations for a BoJ rate hike, could create conditions that support yen strength. In contrast, USDJPY could climb toward 150 if tariff negotiations stall, triggering yen selling—particularly as many companies are expecting a smooth resolution. Political uncertainty from the upcoming House of Councillors election could further weigh on the yen.
Structural factors – such as Japan’s persistent trade deficit and the BoJ’s distance from rate hikes -may also limit yen appreciation, even amid broader dollar weakness. Overall, July could bring renewed volatility, with USDJPY direction hinging on how these economic and political events unfold.
Much more in the Socgen and UBS notes available to pro subs.
3C CHINA
China’s smartphone sales plunge in May.
China Smartphone Sales Plunge In May; Device Camera Counts Peak
Monday, Jul 07, 2025 – 08:30 PM
The latest data from Goldman Sachs shows smartphone shipments in China plunged 21% year-over-year in May to 23 million units. While shipments ticked up 1% month-over-month, they remain under pressure due to a high base effect from 2024, a particularly strong year in shipments. Cumulatively, shipments are down 5% year-to-date through May.
China’s smartphone market in May
- Smartphone shipments in China were -21% YoY to 23m units in May vs. -2% YoY in Apr 2025, per MIIT.
- The number of new smartphone models launched in China was -27% YoY to 27 models in May 2025 vs. +14% YoY to 32 models in Apr 2025, per MIIT.
“For cameras, the number of cameras per phone peaked in 2022 at 3.8 cameras and was down to 3.3/ 3.1 cameras in 2024/ 2025 YTD; however, 20MPx+ penetration increased to 52%/ 51% in 2024/ 2025 YTD (vs. 39%/ 31% in 2023/22), in line with our view of camera specification upgrades for China smartphones,” the team of analysts led by Allen Chang told clients over the weekend.
The 5G segment demonstrated relative strength, with shipments increasing 7% from April to 21 million units, representing an 89% market penetration rate. However, the number of new 5G models launched plunged 52% year-over-year to just 13.
Key China smartphone data in May (China 5G phone market in May):
- 5G phone shipments in China came in at 21m units in May, +7% MoM, -17% YoY, with a 89% penetration rate, per MIIT.
- The number of new 5G smartphone models launched in China was -52% YoY to 13 models in May 2025 vs. -14% YoY to 19 models in Apr 2025, per MIIT.
Visualizing China’s Smartphone Market In A Series Of Charts
Smartphone Pipeline
Chang forecasts shipment declines of 4% in Q2 and 2% in Q3, but highlights ongoing upgrades in hardware specifications and a shift toward premium models.
The analysts are “Buy” rated Hon Hai, AAC, Largan, Luxshare, SZS, Fositek, BYDE, Transsion, Will Semi, MediaTek, and TSMC.
END
soaring Japanese yields spells global troubles
(Market ear)
Tick…Tick…Tick — Japan Bond Market’s Fuse Is Lit
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 8:30
Remember Japanese bonds?
Latest 2 day rise in the Japan 30 year is actually bigger than the mid May move everybody got so excited about. 50 day stays very much intact. Let’s see how this plays out, but this is a must watch.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Always watch Japan
Global bond yield suppression has been a constantly favourable backdrop for equity investors since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Every attempt to withdraw support has led to the financial markets convulsing until policy makers are forced to U-turn. I have always exhorted clients to keep a close eye on Japan. Major financial events often happen first in Japan, for example the late-1990s tech bubble bursting first in Japan. (Albert Edwards, Soc Gen)
Both rising
US and Japan 30 year yields moving in perfect tandem.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Parabolic
Japan 30 year weekly has not closed here since our monitors started plotting the chart. The long end has “decoupled” from the 50 week moving average.
Source: LSEG Workspace
US 10 year
The 10 year continues trading inside a big range like formation. Note we are above the 200 day again. The negative trend line comes in around 4.45%, although the 4.5% area remains the psychological level to watch.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Dormant MOVE?
Bond volatility has stayed very “relaxed”, despite the move higher in rates (up over 20 bps since the lows 5 sessions ago). Time for some MOVE…?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Moving in Japan
JPY 1 month volatility has risen lately. VIX remains unimpressed for now, although these two tend to move in tandem.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Last time VIX got excited
The mid May move in Japanese long end managed spilling over to VIX…
Source: LSEG Workspace
4.European affairs
SWEDEN
Good luck on your integration!!
“It’s Not A Human Right To Live In Sweden” – New Integration Minister Calls For Migrant Values Survey
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Sweden’s new Minister for Education and Integration, Simona Mohamsson, says it’s time to stop relying on gut feelings and start using facts when it comes to integration.
The new Liberals leader called for plans to map immigrants’ values, to find out where many sit on cultural issues that may not align with those held by native Swedes.
“It is not a human right to live in Sweden,” she said in a recent interview with Dagens Nyheter.
The government has asked the World Values Survey (WVS), a global research group, to study how immigrants’ views compare with those of people born in Sweden. Mohamsson says it’s about time Sweden looked at hard data instead of assumptions.
“For too long, integration has been based on gut feeling and guesswork,” she said.
“With real facts, we can finally talk clearly about Swedish values and take proper action on integration.”
Mohamsson pointed out that Sweden is very different from many countries when it comes to things like religion, gender equality, and family roles.
“We’re an extreme country in a good way,” she said. “People coming here can find it hard to understand how our society works.”
Mohamsson said the results could lead to changes in schools, civic classes, or language courses for migrants.
Past surveys have shown that many migrants arrive in Sweden with very different views on topics like divorce, premarital sex, abortion, and homosexuality. Over time, those views tend to shift — after about 10 years, migrants’ values start to resemble those of Swedes. But Mohamsson says that’s too slow.
“Ten years is way too long,” she said. “That’s an entire generation of girls who can’t choose who they love or boys who can’t come out.”
“This isn’t about forcing people to change what they think. It’s about making sure everyone respects the core values we have in Sweden,” she said. “It would be strange to say some people don’t need to follow those values.”
However, some political parties — especially the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, who prop up the current government — consider this approach to be far too soft. They argue that Sweden has already waited too long to tackle cultural clashes and that surveys and gradual changes are not enough. Instead, they demand tough measures, including deportations or stricter immigration controls for migrants who do not accept Swedish and Western values.
The Sweden Democrats recently announced they will campaign in the 2026 general election on a pledge to stop migration to the country.
“Sweden’s safety must come first — even when it conflicts with the right of asylum,” its party leader, Jimmie Åkesson, wrote in May.
Their concerns have gained traction amid growing unrest across Sweden. Migrant gang violence has reached record levels, with deadly shootings, bombings, and grenade attacks now at an all-time high. Police regularly report surging conflicts between criminal groups, and some neighborhoods in major cities are now described as no-go zones for locals after dark.
Even the Moderate Party, which leads the current government, has begun increasing its remigration efforts and pushing for higher income thresholds for prospective migrants, in part due to mounting pressure from the Sweden Democrats and growing public frustration over crime and integration failures.
Mohamsson wants to portray her party as one that understands these concerns, stressing that people who move to Sweden have a duty to try to fit in. “It’s not a human right to live in Sweden,” she repeated. “This isn’t about opinions — it’s about finding out which values clash with Swedish ones.”
This is one of Mohamsson’s first big interviews since becoming both integration minister and leader of the Liberals. She admitted her views have changed over time — she used to oppose her party’s shift to the right, but now she’s a minister in a government supported by the Sweden Democrats.
Asked about this, she said, “Yeah, I’ve changed my mind since I first got into politics 15 years ago. When it comes to problems in schools and integration, I think the best way to fix them is through the cooperation we have now.”
Despite the current government’s hardline rhetoric on migration, 60,000 foreigners still received Swedish citizenship in 2023.
GERMANY
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS IRAN
Gaza for Fordow: Did Netanyahu master the art of the strategic deal? – analysis
Like a masterful game of chess, Netanyahu sacrificed his “queen” of the complete dismantling of Hamas in order to achieve something greater: The destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites.
US President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, US, April 7, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt/File Photo)ByHERB KEINONJULY 7, 2025 20:54Updated: JULY 7, 2025 20:55
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current trip to Washington will likely provide the answer to one of the most-asked questions since Operation Rising Lion: how will Israel’s success in Iran impact the situation in Gaza?
The very fact that there is now intensified discussion about a ceasefire in Gaza and bringing the hostages home already shows that one event has influenced the other. That momentum was not felt to the same degree before June 13 and Israel’s attack on Iran.
But, unlike what many may have assumed, the change in heart has not come from Hamas. It has come from Netanyahu.
Until recently, Netanyahu was adamant about continuing the war, mainly due to an aversion to allowing Hamas any semblance of victory — something they will claim by remaining in any capacity in Gaza after the war.
Yet following Israel’s stunning military success in Iran, the crippling of Hezbollah, and the destruction of much of Hamas’s infrastructure, it is hard to argue, credibly, that Hamas “won” the war it launched on October 7.
Instead, that war triggered a chain of events that brought about the dismantling of the so-called “axis of resistance,” an enterprise on which Iran mortgaged its future and spent an estimated half a trillion dollars over three decades building.
The result? Iran is left with little energy, scarce water, a basket-case economy, a proxy network that has largely gone up in smoke, and a nuclear program that has now been set back years.
This new lay of the land—not any newfound flexibility from Hamas—is what may now bring the war in Gaza to a close. And it may give Netanyahu the political space to show flexibility on terms he previously ruled out. For the first time in decades, Israel is not staring down an immediate existential threat. That changes the calculus.
In this strategic realignment, it’s hard not to recall a historical parallel drawn by Israeli thinker Micah Goodman, even before the war, in one of his podcasts with Efrat Shapira-Rosenberg as part of a series on Iran. One particular comparison between Netanyahu and Winston Churchill now seems more relevant than ever and merits revisiting.
In the early stages of World War II, Churchill came to one overriding conclusion: that only an American entry into the war would save Britain and ensure Nazi defeat. His primary strategic objective was to draw the US into the conflict.
The Atlantic Conference in August 1941, when he met Franklin D. Roosevelt in Newfoundland, made that clear: Churchill’s goal was, quite simply, to get the Americans in. When that failed, he settled for expanded aid and a united Anglo-American vision for the postwar world, enshrined in the Atlantic Charter.
The Charter itself was a monumental concession. Among its principles was the right of all peoples to choose their own government, a direct threat to British colonial rule. Churchill was concerned that this clause would legitimize decolonization movements, including those within Britain’s own empire. And he was right. The Charter also demanded the dismantling of Imperial Preference, Britain’s protective trade system, another blow to the British Empire.
Yet Churchill, deeply attached to the empire, made those concessions. Why? Because the strategic prize, the American alliance, was worth the sacrifice. This is a textbook case of strategic prioritization. For Churchill, the supreme goal was to get the US into the war. And to achieve that goal, he was willing to sacrifice other ambitions.
Goodman likened this to a game of chess, during which one sacrifices the queen, in this case, the British Empire, to save the king, Britain itself, and the free world.
Giving up in Gaza to win in Iran
That logic—the willingness to trade a cherished but secondary asset for a decisive strategic gain, resonates today. Just as Churchill gave up the empire to preserve the nation, Netanyahu may now be weighing a similar trade: “absolute victory” in Gaza for a decisive victory over Iran.
For Netanyahu, Iran has always been the king on the board, and the neutralization of its nuclear program — an existential threat to Israel — has been his lifelong mission. But to get that achievement, he needed US involvement in the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Doing that, obviously, did not come without cost or calculation.
Much has been written about the role of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in persuading the Trump administration to approve the strike despite the objections of the isolationist wing of the GOP. Some have called it Israel’s most significant diplomatic achievement in decades. It is equally plausible, if not more so, that Gaza was a major piece in this puzzle.
Following the US strikes, Trump made it clear that he wanted the war in Gaza to end. On Sunday, in the runup to Monday evening’s meeting with Netanyahu in the White House, he also said that the US is “working on a lot of things” with Israel, including “probably a permanent deal with Iran.” The US and Iran are expected to restart talks in the coming days, and Trump has made clear that under any deal, Iran will not be able to enrich uranium — a condition reinforced by the US strike.
This may all be part of a broader strategic bargain: that if the US took out Iran’s nuclear facilities, Netanyahu would agree to wind down the war in Gaza.
It’s the Churchill chessboard, modernized. Just as Churchill accepted American terms on decolonization to gain an ally against Hitler, Netanyahu may have already agreed to forgo “absolute victory” in Gaza to secure the far greater strategic win of neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Which brings us back to the chess analogy. The “queen,” in this case, is the continuation of the war in Gaza and the maximalist objective of toppling Hamas completely. The “king” is neutralizing Iran. Just as Churchill gave up imperial glory to get the US into World War II, the coming days will show whether Netanyahu was willing to tamp down his conditions regarding a Gaza ceasefire in exchange for getting the US to act against Iran.
Critics will say Netanyahu is cutting a deal with a transactional American president at the expense of letting Hamas survive. Others will argue that if this was part of the price for getting US action in Iran — if it was a calculated sacrifice in the service of a more important end — then it was well worth it.
Through Churchillian eyes, the logic is cold and clear: sacrifice the queen, win the game.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Witkoff to join hostage talks in Doha as sides told Trump wants deal by week’s end
Negotiators make progress on closing gaps regarding aid and IDF withdrawal, but will need US president’s help to bridge key dispute on whether deal will permanently end war
By Jacob Magid FollowToday, 11:12 pm
US President Donald Trump looks up at the American flag on the flagpole on the South Lawn as he arrives at the White House, July 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
WASHINGTON — Mediators have been informed that US President Donald Trump wants a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal to be inked by the end of the week, and his top envoy Steve Witkoff is being dispatched to Qatar shortly to advance the effort, even as fundamental differences between the sides remained on Monday.
Trump’s deadline for an agreement has also been passed along to both Israel and Hamas, an Arab diplomat and a second individual involved in the talks told The Times of Israel. Trump told reporters on Sunday that there was a “good chance” a deal could be reached “during the week.”
The US president was slated to host Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for dinner on Monday evening, with Gaza at the top of the agenda along with the recently diminished Iranian nuclear threat and other regional issues.
In preparation for the dinner, Netanyahu met separately on Monday afternoon with Witkoff and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Blair House, where the premier is staying while in Washington this week.
Meanwhile, proximity talks between Israel and Hamas have been ongoing in Doha since Sunday.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a Monday press briefing that Witkoff would fly to Doha later in the week in order to advance those negotiations.
Activists hold portraits of Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip by Hamas during a protest calling for their release and an end to the war, outside the branch office of the US embassy in Tel Aviv on July 7, 2025. (Menahem Kahana / AFP)
Leavitt said Trump’s “utmost priority” is to end the war in Gaza and return all of the remaining hostages, adding that an “agreeable and appropriate” proposal is on the table after Israel backed it, and urging Hamas to do the same.
The US coordinated closely with Israel last week before sending the proposal to the terror group for its approval.
Hamas said over the weekend that it responded positively to the offer, while submitting three reservations that Netanyahu subsequently asserted were unacceptable.
The three reservations sought to ensure that Israel would not be able to resume the war after the 60-day ceasefire currently under discussion, secure a surge of humanitarian assistance through UN-backed mechanisms, and withdraw Israeli troops to positions held before the previous ceasefire collapsed in early March.
The Arab diplomat said that progress was made during proximity talks that have been held over the past two days in Doha, particularly on the issue of humanitarian aid.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s operations will likely be marginalized, if not ended completely, the Arab diplomat added.
Palestinians carry boxes containing food and humanitarian aid packages delivered by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, May 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
The American aid organization has been criticized for forcing Gazans to walk long distances while crossing IDF lines — often coming under deadly fire as a result — in order to pick up boxes of food. Israel says the mechanism is necessary to prevent Hamas from diverting aid.
An average of fewer than 70 trucks of aid have been entering Gaza each day since Israel lifted a blockade over the Strip in May after 78 days. International organizations say hundreds of trucks are needed daily to address the dire need in the Strip. The extent of the crisis has been highlighted by the chaotic, deadly scenes at and near GHF distribution sites.
Negotiators in Doha have also discussed the exact parameters of Israel’s partial withdrawal from Gaza during the 60-day ceasefire under discussion, the Arab diplomat said, adding that Israeli officials came to Qatar with maps showing the withdrawal that they envision.
Israel is particularly interested in keeping its troops in the Morag corridor, a belt of land cutting off Rafah from Khan Younis in southern Gaza, the Arab diplomat said.
Nonetheless, the source familiar with the negotiations said that mediators are optimistic about being able to secure a compromise on the exact parameters of Israel’s partial withdrawal from Gaza.
As for the core disagreement over whether the ceasefire will be temporary, as Israel seeks, or an effective end to the war, as Hamas demands, the two sources told The Times of Israel that Trump will discuss the matter during his dinner with Netanyahu.
Children play next to tents at a camp housing displaced Palestinians in the Al-Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip on July 7, 2025. (Eyad BABA / AFP)
The Arab diplomat acknowledged that this was the thorniest issue remaining and it was unclear whether gaps on it could be bridged.
The proposal presented to Hamas last week stated that the 60-day ceasefire can be extended, so long as the sides are negotiating the terms of a permanent ceasefire in good faith. But one of Hamas’s amendments dropped the latter phrase, viewing it as a window Netanyahu could exploit to resume the war, as he did in March, collapsing an agreement reached in January before its second stage.
Accordingly, the Hamas amendment stipulates talks on a permanent ceasefire will continue until an agreement is reached — something Israel has opposed, fearing that the terror group will drag out the talks indefinitely.
Channel 12 reported Monday that Netanyahu is expected to tell Trump during their dinner that Israel remains firm on three non-negotiable conditions for ending the war in Gaza: the complete destruction of Hamas, the exile of its leadership from the Strip, and the full disarmament of the terror group.
While Israel is willing to show more flexibility on other matters, such as the distribution of humanitarian aid and IDF repositioning, these three demands “continue to be the point of contention in the efforts to reach a conclusion to the war,” according to the network.
The deal on the table would secure the release of half of the 20 remaining living hostages, with eight freed on the first day and two released on the 50th day, according to an Arab diplomat from one of the mediating countries.
Palestinians inspect the damage after an airstrike in the Al-Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip on July 4, 2025. (Eyad BABA / AFP)
Roughly half of the slain hostages’ bodies would also be released, with five being transferred on the seventh day, five more on the 30th day and eight more on the 60th day.
While Hamas has offered to release all of the hostages in one batch, Netanyahu — under pressure from far-right coalition partners — opted for the phased framework in order to maintain the ability to resume the war. Accordingly, the terror group demanded more staggered releases to ensure that Israel remains at the negotiation table.
The war began when Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage. Since then, 140 hostages have been freed by Hamas, mostly during the two ceasefires. In addition, Hamas released the bodies of eight hostages, the IDF rescued eight hostages alive and recovered the bodies of 49 others from the Strip.
Hamas-linked authorities say that more than 57,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the start of the war, an unverified figure that does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip stands at 444.
Lazar Berman and Nava Freiberg contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS
Israel must end this war as fast as possible.
Five IDF soldiers killed by explosive device in Beit Hanun, Gaza
During the evacuation of the wounded, the soldiers encountered gunfire, leading to 12 soldiers being wounded in varying degrees of severity.
IDF announces the names of five fallen soldiers from the Kfir Brigade, killed in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip, July 8, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF, AMIR BOHBOTJULY 8, 2025 06:14Updated: JULY 8, 2025 11:41
The IDF on Tuesday morning said that five soldiers from the Netzah Yehuda Battalion in the Kfir Brigade were killed by an explosive device in Beit Hanun in northern Gaza.
According to the military, St.-Sgt. Meir Shimon Amar, 20, from Jerusalem; Sgt. Moshe Nissim Frech, 20, from Jerusalem; St.-Sgt. Noam Aharon Musgadian, 20, from Jerusalem; Sgt.-Maj. Benyamin Asulin, 28, from Haifa; and St.-Sgt. Moshe Shmuel Noll, 21, from Beit Shemesh, were killed in the incident.
The soldiers were killed when explosive devices were detonated when the force entered the area. During the evacuation of the wounded, the soldiers encountered gunfire, leading to 12 soldiers being wounded in varying degrees of severity. They were evacuated by helicopter for medical treatment at various hospitals across Israel.
The Netzah Yehuda Association expressed its condolences, stating: “We bow our heads in honor of the fallen soldiers of the Netzah Yehuda Battalion who gave their lives in battle in the northern Gaza Strip.”
“With broken hearts, we stand alongside the families in mourning the loss of their brave sons—fighters who selflessly risked their lives for the people of Israel,” the association added.See more on
end
Beit Hanun disaster causing death of five IDF soldiers was a year in the making – analysis
All Hamas has to do is sit and wait. It knows that Israeli officials have vowed to disarm the terrorist group, exile its leaders, and defeat it.
Soldiers from the IDF’s Nahal Brigade dismantle Hamas tunnels in Beit Hanun, Gaza Strip, Janury 3 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)BySETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 8, 2025 16:20
Five Israeli soldiers were killed in Beit Hanun on Monday. In addition, another 12 soldiers were wounded. The incident involved terrorists using explosive devices and gunfire, and took place as the IDF’s Kfir Brigade and Netzah Yehudah Battalion were operating in Beit Hanun in northern Gaza.
The tragedy in Beit Hanun is one of several similar incidents over the past month and a half of fighting in Gaza. Israel returned to fighting in mid-March 2025 after a ceasefire that began in January.
However, operations in March and April were very limited, designed to expand the IDF’s control of the Morag corridor near Rafah and also return to the buffer zone along the border.
Beit Hanun is in the buffer zone. It is a Gazan town very close to the Israeli city of Sderot. Beit Hanun has long been a hot spot for terrorists, often used by Hamas and other groups to launch rockets at Israel.
The IDF operated in Beit Hanun many times during the 640 days of war that began on October 7, 2023 with a Hamas attack on Israel.
Most of Beit Hanun has been badly damaged or destroyed in the war. However, there is a false perception that destroying areas in Gaza or razing whole communities will make the terrorists go away.
In fact, the rubble and destruction may only provide a false sense of victory. The terrorists return to the rubble. Terrorists hiding in rubble are just as difficult to find as those operating in an urban area untouched by war. Rubble may help the terrorists because, at first glance, it appears to give the impression that an area has been cleared or “pacified.”
History tells us that the ruins of cities do not make them any easier to conquer. During the WWII battle of Stalingrad the Soviet city was destroyed, but the Soviets and Nazis nevertheless had a difficult time fighting over it.
What has the clearing of Beit Hanun looked like over the last year and a half? Back in December 2024, the IDF said that “following prior intelligence regarding the presence of terrorist infrastructure and operatives in the area, and as part of the effort to maintain security for the residents of the communities in southern Israel, the Nahal Brigade began operating overnight against terror targets in the area of Beit Hanun.”
The IDF asked civilians to move out of the town, and the IDF used the air force and artillery to strike terror targets before infantry moved in to mop up.
In September 2024, the IDF also had to strike terrorists in Beit Hanun. “With the direction of IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) intelligence, the IAF conducted a precise strike on a Hamas command and control center embedded inside a compound that previously served as the ‘Raazi El Shua’ School in Beit Hanun.”
Perhaps Hamas never left Beit Hanun
The problem with Beit Hanun is that the terrorists keep returning, or perhaps they have never left.
In January 2025, just before the ceasefire, the IDF noted that “the Nahal Brigade continues its activities in the Beit Hanun area in the Gaza Strip. As part of these activities, the brigade’s troops uncovered and dismantled multiple sites used to launch rockets toward Israel, as well as several rockets intended to launch.”
The IDF said that “booby-trapped structures and observation equipment planted in the area to harm our forces were dismantled. In recent days, the brigade’s troops have been engaging in intense combat in the area, during which both commanders and soldiers have fallen. The IDF extends its condolences to the bereaved families and will continue to accompany them.”
This means that after more than a year of war, the terrorists were still active in Beit Hanun. They were placing improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and they had plenty of terrorist infrastructure in the area.
There was “intense combat.” Yet, despite the challenge of a year of fighting in Gaza from the end of 2023 to January 2025, the enemy was allowed to remain in Beit Hanun. The ceasefire clearly gave the enemy time to regroup and recover, as it has all over the Gaza Strip.
When Israel began operations again in March, Beit Hanun was not a major objective.
Later, Operation Gideon’s Chariots was launched in May with the intention of returning the IDF to control around 60-70 percent of the enclave.
The theory was that the IDF would control these areas permanently this time. No more raids into areas and then leaving, such that the enemy returns and the ground has to be retaken repeatedly.
Beit Hanun is a small symbol of Gaza in a microcosm. The IDF has cleared it several times. Most Israeli commentators who follow the IDF operations noted on Tuesday that the area has been retaken numerous times.
However, the enemy was able to put in place an apparently complex ambush. The same methods were used to soften up the area prior to the IDF entering with infantry.
The problem is that the enemy has become familiar with IDF tactics over the last 640 days of war. The tragedy in Beit Hanun was more than a year in the making. Beit Hanun is close to Sderot. If it can’t be cleared, how will most of Gaza be fully cleared of terrorists?
Every military knows that plans only look good on paper until contact with the enemy takes place. Then both sides should shift tactics as they learn what works and what doesn’t.
The IDF may have learned a lot in Gaza. However, the enemy is also learning. It is sitting in wait, and it waits for targets of opportunity.
Hamas controls the central camps and Gaza City, and it assumes the IDF won’t enter this 30 percent of Gaza.
As such, it uses that as a redoubt and then fights a low-level insurgency in the 60 percent of Gaza where the IDF is operating.
All Hamas has to do is sit and wait. It knows that Israeli officials have vowed to disarm the terrorist group, exile its leaders, and defeat it.
However, it also knows that Israel has made these vows in the past, and that Israel tends to convince itself that it is victorious, while Hamas survives each round.
If it has survived in Beit Hanun, it shows the difficulty of uprooting it elsewhere.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS/IRAN/SYRIA
Gaza deal can be achieved within days, working to secure it, senior Israeli official tells ‘Post’
While Hamas rejected the latest Qatari proposal, the official said the differences were “small” and that negotiations remain on track.
Families of Israelis held hostage in Gaza and supporters protest calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, outside the US Embassy Branch Office in Tel Aviv, July 7, 2025.(photo credit: ERIK MARMOR/FLASH90)ByAMICHAI STEINJULY 8, 2025 06:57Updated: JULY 8, 2025 09:59
A senior political official told reporters on Monday that efforts are ongoing to reach a hostage deal and that an agreement could be finalized “within a few days.”
The official said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a two-hour meeting with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, regarding hostage deal negotiations and Gaza, and a separate two-hour meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Both meetings were intended to prepare Trump ahead of his meeting with Netanyahu.
“President Trump requested that the prime minister bring his wife and son to the dinner,” the official noted, adding that a second meeting with Trump could be held if necessary.
“There is full and total coordination between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, including on the issue of the hostage deal,” the official emphasized.
While Hamas rejected the latest Qatari proposal, the official said the differences were “small” and that negotiations remain on track. “This might take more than just a few days,” he added.
The official also stressed that, from Israel’s perspective, a key component of the deal must involve stripping Hamas of its authority to control the distribution of humanitarian aid.
End of war means Gaza without Hamas, Netanyahu reiterates
On the broader question of ending the war in Gaza, the official said Netanyahu’s position is clear: “The end means Gaza without Hamas.” When asked who might govern the Gaza Strip, the official replied: “Perhaps Israel will control Gaza for a certain period. The prime minister isn’t afraid of that.”
Addressing recent tensions between ministers and the IDF chief of staff over Gaza operations and aid distribution—debated in recent cabinet meetings—the official said: “The prime minister trusts [IDF Chief of Staff] Eyal Zamir’s leadership. That doesn’t mean he has no criticism, but he hopes ministers will express their views in a more respectful manner.”
Israel seeks to preserve gains in Iran
Regarding Iran, the official reiterated that Israel is in full coordination with Trump. “Israel wants to preserve the gains in Iran—removal of enriched material and halting enrichment. How do you do that? ‘Bombs,’ he said.
He emphasized that the level of coordination with the US is unprecedented. “There has never been this kind of alignment or mutual trust between our two countries. The way we’ve worked together has taken coordination to a whole new level.”
The official also clarified that there was no American veto on the potential targeting of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and that Israel did not, and does not need to, ask for a green light to strike Iran.
Symbolically, he noted that after the US B-2 bombers struck the Iranian nuclear sites at the entrance to the White House, Trump placed a portrait of President Harry Truman—the US leader who authorized the use of the atomic bomb.
“Trump has committed himself to fighting on Israel’s side, and that has changed global perceptions of him,” the official said.
In his conversation with the president, Netanyahu reportedly stated: “When there is full coordination, Israel can greatly enhance its capabilities.”
Regional shifts also bring Syria and Lebanon into play
The official also addressed potential regional shifts following an Israeli strike in Iran, particularly regarding Syria and Lebanon. However, he cautioned, “It’s too early to talk about any agreement.” He made clear that Israel opposes any scenario in which Turkey would be allowed to establish military bases in Syria.
Finally, when asked about Trump’s recent social media post referencing Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial, the official said: “In every conversation, Trump brings it up on his own initiative,” and added: “The trial has collapsed.”
END
HOUTHIS
Oil Closes At Session High As Houthi Rebels Hit Second Greek Vessel In Red Sea
Monday, Jul 07, 2025 – 07:15 PM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
A Greek-operated bulk carrier was attacked in the Red Sea on Monday in the second Houthi strike on commercial shipping in less than 24 hours, stoking fears of a renewed escalation in one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors, Arab and Israel media report.
The Eternity C, a Liberia-flagged vessel managed by Athens-based Cosmoship, was hit off Yemen’s Hodeidah coast using a combination of sea drones, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms. Two seafarers were seriously injured and two more are missing, according to shipping intelligence sources cited by media. The vessel was reportedly en route to Iran with a cargo of steel.
The attack follows Sunday’s strike on the Magic Seas, another Greek-managed bulk carrier. Houthi militants claim the Magic Seas has sunk. That vessel was hit southwest of Hodeidah and its crew abandoned ship before rescue. Both ships are Liberia-flagged, and neither was carrying Israeli cargo, according to tracking data.
Shortly after the second attack, on Monday at 3:31 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading up 2.08% at $69.72, near session high, while WTI was trading up 2.39% at $68.09; both ignored the weekend’s bigger than expected OPEC+ output increase.
Insurance premiums for vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait have already increased, with underwriters signaling more exclusions are likely in coming days.
The renewed Red Sea volatility comes as Axios reports that Israeli officials believe Donald Trump would authorize pre-emptive military action against Iran’s nuclear program if he returns to office. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the issue during a closed-door dinner with Trump this week. Tehran has restarted centrifuge operations at key enrichment sites, setting off fresh alarm in Tel Aviv.
end
SYRIA/LEBANON/ISRAEL/TRIPOLI
Syria Wants Lebanon’s Tripoli In Swap For Israel-Held Golan Heights
Monday, Jul 07, 2025 – 06:00 PM
Amid ongoing talks with Israel, Syria’s new Islamist-led government is considering a scenario in which it would relinquish claims to most of the Golan Heights to Israel, in exchange for carving the city of Tripoli and surrounding territory out of Lebanon and making it part of Syria. The development was first reported by Israel’s i24News, which didn’t address the question of how Israel would have any authority to trade another country’s territory.
Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967’s Six-Day War and annexed it in 1981. In 2019, the Trump administration became the first country to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the 700 square miles of strategically-important land. Six years later, the United States still stands alone in doing so, as Israel’s annexation is widely seen as a violation of international law and the United Nations charter. Following Assad’s collapse, the Israeli army raced into Syria and seized what had been a demilitarized, UN-monitored “buffer zone” under a 1974 ceasefire agreement, and also ventured beyond it. Israel did so despite assurances from the new Syrian government’s assurance that it would honor the 1974 agreement. Other violations of Syrian territory has been part of the Israeli routine for years, with periodic bombings that have continued after the fall of Assad.
Now, the two governments are engaged in what an Israeli official characterizes as “advanced talks” on a bilateral security agreement. According to a source close to President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria is demanding that Israel part with at least a portion of the Golan Heights, and has thrown two scenarios on the table:
Scenario 1: Israel would retain strategic areas in the Golan Heights equivalent to one-third of its territory, hand over a third to Syria, and lease another third from Syria for a period of 25 years.
Scenario 2: Israel keeps two-thirds of the Golan Heights, and hands over the remaining third to Syria, with the possibility of its lease. Under this scenario, the Lebanese city of Tripoli, close to the Lebanese-Syrian border, and possibly other Lebanese territories in the north of the country and the Beqaa Valley, would be handed over to Syria. –i24News.
“There is no such thing as peace for free,” said the Syrian government source, adding some concession by Israel on the Golan Heights is essential to al-Sharaa from the perspective of domestic politics: “Al-Sharaa would likely face significant internal resistance should he fail to [secure the return of some territory].”
In addition to the port city of Tripoli, Syria is angling to take over surrounding Sunni-dominated Lebanese territory. According to one analysis, here’s how Lebanon’s population breaks down along religious lines: 32% Shia Muslim, 31% Sunni Muslim, 31% Christian and 6% Druze Muslim. However, Tripoli is something on the order of 81% Sunni Muslim. The city and surrounding territory were removed from Syria when the state of Lebanon was formed by France in 1920, following the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Tripoli is Lebanon’s second-largest city with a population of about 229,000, and is home to an important seaport.
The idea of a swath of Lebanon being carved off and handed over to an extremist government dominated by members of an al-Qaeda offshoot is certain to raise eyebrows — most of all, because Lebanon is not a party to the discussions. While the Lebanese government has yet to issue a statement about the report, Ashraf Rifi, a member of the Lebanese parliament who represents Tripoli, dismissed the idea, telling the state-run National News Agency:
“Syria is not giving up the Golan, and it is not engaging in any barter. Al-Fayhaa [a union of municipalities that includes Tripoli, Mina and Baddawi] is Lebanese, Lebanese, Lebanese — Tripoli is Lebanese and proud of its identity. The 10,452 square kilometers [of Lebanon] constitute a final homeland for us and all its people. Period.”
We’ll have to see if the State of Israel somehow manages to have the last word on Tripoli’s future.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA
total insanity. this war should never have started!
(zerohedge)
Trump Confirms Arms For Ukraine U-Turn Days After Pentagon Halts Delivery
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 08:05 AM
Another drastic foreign policy U-turn by the Trump administration, after just a week ago some weapons shipments to Ukraine were halted – and now it’s back ON apparently…
President Trump first unveiled Monday after last week’s ‘disappointing’ phone call with President Putin, for which the US leader was “very unhappy”, that he would send “more weapons” to Ukraine.
“We’re gonna send some more weapons we have to them. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now,” Trump said, alongside a US and Israeli delegation, on the day Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the White House.
Last Thursday night saw what was likely a record aerial attack on Ukraine which lasted for seven hours. Trump has said the US would send “defensive weapons primarily.” He remarked: “So many people are dying in that mess.”
Ukraine’s President Zelensky has tallied that last week Russia launched around 1,270 drones and 39 missiles in total at Ukraine, doing serious damage in many places, including the capital area. The Ukrainian government reacted Tuesday by seeking clarify on the sudden policy shift from the White House:
The ministry of defense in Kyiv said in a statement on Tuesday that it had not received official notification of the change in policy and it was “critically important” for Ukraine to maintain “stability, continuity and predictability” in the provision of arms, especially air defense systems.
The statement added: “We are grateful to the United States for all its support and highly appreciate the efforts of American partners aimed at achieving genuine peace.”
Adding insult to injury for much of Trump’s base, which has long supported his efforts to disentangle America from Kiev – and stop sending the Ukrainians billions in taxpayers’ money – the Department of Defense is actually touting this move as in keeping with ‘America First’.
“Our framework for POTUS to evaluate military shipments across the globe remains in effect and is integral to our America First defense priorities,” the Pentagon said in a new press release.
Here is the White House merely one week ago:
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war the “decision was made to put America’s interests first following” a Defense Department “review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe.”
What actually changed? It remains that the simplest way to wind down this tragic war is for Zelensky to agree to territorial concessions, but he won’t even so much as budge on recognizing Crimea, and it looks like Washington is certainly not trying to convince or pressure him at this point. Zelensky will continue gladly taking his arms handouts from Uncle Sam without willingness to make compromise at the negotiating table. The war, and horrific killing, will go on with no end in sight.
ROBERT H
Worth watching
Adds more scope to what i wrote about on the stack on the Crimean Bridge which was a failure. And not just in a technology sense but a real blow top British and French hegemony.
As for the US they do not want to play with such embarrassment and have left the game.
Deals with Russia that build are far more important than silly idealism of winning against Russia.
The question is what Europe will do now Especailly as economic realities beckon.
https://youtu.be/g8jJfA1cXD0?si=cOlTQqFfv5UqtghR
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
He saved many lives. Should be quite a case!
Doctor Faces 35 Years In Prison For Issuing COVID-19 Cards To No-Vax Patients
Monday, Jul 07, 2025 – 05:40 PM
Vero Beach, Fla. – Utah plastic surgeon Dr. Kirk Moore is facing thirty five years in federal prison for destroying thousands of vials of COVID-19 vaccine, giving his patients vaccine cards without taking the shots, and injecting saline into children whose parents wanted them to believe they got vaccinated without risking the deadly side effects.
Dr. Michael Kirk Moore Jr., 58, who operates his practice Plastic Surgery Institute of Utah, Inc. in Salt Lake County, Utah, begins his trial on Monday, July 7, 2025, at the Orrin G. Hatch U.S. Courthouse, located at 351 S. West Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah.
As of this writing, a ‘GiveSendGo’ donation campaign for him is at just under $140,000
A rally that day at the steps of the courthouse at 350 South Maine Street, Salt Lake City, UT, is being organized by
and will include veterans of the health freedom movement, such as vaccine safety activist Robert Scott Bell, as well as the team that produced the film Died Suddenly, Dr. Moore’s son Michael, Jason Preston, host of the organizing group, and Mike Schultz, the speaker Utah’s House of Representatives
Countless other prominent figures in the MAHA sphere, such as Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, will be joining online to stand with Dr. Moore.
Follow @DiedSuddenly_ on X for updates over the next three weeks as the trial progresses.
The charges against Dr. Moore were filled in 2023 by the Department of Justice under Joe Biden, and have not been dropped yet by President Trump’s Attorney General Pam Bondi.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has not formally intervened, despite his agency’s Inspector General’s involvement, but did publicly expressed his support in April of this year, saying on his government verified X account, “Dr. Moore deserves a medal for his courage and commitment to healing.”
Officially, Dr. Moore and his co-defendant, are being charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to convert, sell, convey, and dispose of government property; and conversion, sale, conveyance, and disposal of government property and aiding and abetting.
The “government property” being referred to is $28,028.50 worth of “government-provided COVID-19 vaccines”, also referred to by Pfizer as “government prototypes” due to their experimental, untested, and dangerous nature.
Dr. Moore is also accused of specifically distributing at least 1,937 “fraudulently completed vaccination record cards” to his patients, none of which are testifying for or against him in this case, and also administering saline shots to some of their kids, admitted by the DOJ to have been carried out with the full knowledge and consent of their parents, so their children would actually believe and act as if they were vaccinated, and not have to lie to live a normal life with their friends amidst the pandemic mandates and madness.
Dr. Moore was even arrested initially when the charges were made official in 2023.
“In a blatant act of intimidation and punitive cruelty, Dr. Moore was arrested and incarcerated for 22 days—isolated for 22 hours each day—merely for attempting to communicate essential court information to co-defendants,” Dr. Margaret Aranda, who has followed the case closely, said on Substack.
“Kirk Moore offered his patients a choice when others wouldn’t,” Dr. Bowden said of the doctors couregaous stand. “He received no compensation for his care and has paid a tremendous price for honoring his patients’ fundamental right to bodily autonomy.”
Despite the aggressive and nastily toned characterization of Dr. Moore by the DOJ, he has no criminal record, is a devoted father raising two children alone after tragically losing his ex-wife to suicide in 2019, and is a decorated U.S. Navy Flight Surgeon who has tirelessly cared for patients throughout his career.
“Amid the COVID-19 crisis, he courageously provided free medical care to those in need, making house calls and offering essential treatments without compensation,” Dr. Margaret Aranda said on Substack. “The individuals who turned to Dr. Moore did not do so lightly, nor did they seek refuge merely for convenience or leisure. These were men and women whose fundamental constitutional rights to medical autonomy were being compromised. They faced profound and life-altering threats: military personnel urgently seeking help as they faced imminent deployment—being unjustly threatened with court martial unless vaccinated; brave individuals who, within hours of seeing Dr. Moore, would leave to defend our nation’s freedom. Others were desperately awaiting life-saving organ transplants, yet cruelly denied these procedures due solely to their vaccination status, forced into a devastating choice between their beliefs and their very lives.”
“Dr. Moore provided these individuals with a chance to uphold their deeply held personal convictions while safeguarding their futures,” Dr. Aranda pointedly concluded.
The U.S. government team, previously headed by Biden-appointed prosecutor U.S. Attorney Trina A. Higgins, is now being overseen by Felice John Viti, Acting-U.S. Attorney for the District of Utah, who previously served on the Counterterrorism Section of the National Security Division and has investigated terrorists in war zones for most of his career.
And prepare for war is exactly what the U.S. did in this case, involving everything short of the DOD, such as the Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS-OIG), Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) division and the FBI.
This war footing has also had a chilling effect on the courtroom and the overseeing justice, Judge Howard C. Nielson, Jr., a Trump appointee in 2017 and former member of the Federalist Society, who has instructed the jury and opposing councils to not mention vaccines, covid-19, alleged “medical misinformation” and other details about Dr. Moore’s intentions and safety concerns, because it may “poison the jury pool.”
“Shockingly, the prosecution has moved to deny Dr. Moore and his co-defendants their fundamental right to present a necessity defense—an essential opportunity to demonstrate that their actions were taken in good faith to prevent greater harm,” Dr. Aranda said. “Furthermore, the prosecution seeks to exclude testimony from patients harmed by COVID-19 vaccines, silencing crucial voices and denying the jury critical context. Such actions suggest not justice, but an orchestrated attempt to suppress evidence that might validate Dr. Moore’s ethically driven decisions.”
Dr. Moore is also under surveillance by the Trump DOJ.
“When they threw me in jail for contacting my co-defendant one of the further restrictions that I had for pre-trial release was only to communicate via text message and email,” Dr. Moore told this reporter. “I had sent them a message on Signal. They thought I was trying to hide communications. They put monitoring on my phones.”
If you’d like to hear directly from Dr. Moore about his case and defense, watch his interview here on X with the Died Suddenly team, one of his last before the beginning of the trial. (or Rumble here)
Due to the case being held in Federal court and not State, no livestream or recordings will be available throughout the trial, and unless you are physically in the courtroom, or part of the defense or prosecution teams, the public will not have timely access to developments or transcripts. Because of this, the Died Suddenly team is closely considering attending the trial in person as court reporters, to provide crucial updates for the American people, whose liberties are truly on trial in this case.
“Before Fauci, before any pharmaceutical company, the U.S. government chose to prosecute a doctor that honored his oath, to do no harm to his patients,” Matthew Skow, the award winning film maker of Died Suddenly and partner of Gateway Studios, said after learning the details of Dr. Moore’s case.
The line team of prosecutors are led by Todd Bouton, a former federal judge, who joined the DOJ at the height of the pandemic to pursue COVID-related and healthcare fraud, and his assistants are Jacob Strain, and Special Assistant U.S. Attorney Sachiko Jepson.
Constitutional Attorney Jonathan W. Emord says the case is a prime opportunity for dismissal, and if convicted, President Trump should at the minimum consider pardoning Dr. Moore, especially based on his past statements, criticizing COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccination mandates, often framing them as overreaches of government authority or threats to personal freedom.
“The left wing lunatics are trying very hard to bring back COVID lockdowns and mandates with all of their sudden fearmongering about the new variants that are coming,” President Trump said in a campaign video before the 2024 election, condemning the same tyrannical henchmen now gathering against Dr. Moore. “They want to restart the COVID hysteria so they can justify more lockdowns, more censorship, more illegal dropboxes, more mail-in ballots and trillions of dollars in payoffs to their political allies.”
“Every COVID tyrant who wants to take away our freedom,” President Trump said, addressing those who sought to mandate the same Covid-19 vaccines that Dr. Moore refused to administer to patients. “Hear these words: We will not comply. So don’t even think about it. We will not shut down our schools. We will not accept your lockdowns. We will not abide by your mask mandates and we will not tolerate your vaccine mandates.”
You can watch President Trump’s statement here for yourself.
President Trump’s words and Dr. Moore’s actions are only further justified by the FDA’s decision to add a new safety warning label to all mRNA COVID vaccines, stating the extremely high risk of Myocarditis and long term Heart Effects in young men who take the shots and boosters.
The Hippocratic Oath that all doctors ascribe to, and Dr. Moore was following, says to prescribe only beneficial treatments, according to his abilities and judgment; to refrain from causing harm or hurt; and to live an exemplary personal and professional life.
If the shots now officially cause myocarditis, wouldn’t refraining from administering them according to one’s judgment, be refraining from causing harm or hurt, and be the best example of living an exemplary personal and professional life?
You can submit public comment by calling DOJ Public Affairs Specialist Felicia Martinez at (801) 325-3237 or email at Felicia.martinez@usdoj.gov
Please share this article with your doctor, your friends, and your family. This case is proof the pandemic madness is not over, and if this trial is allowed to continue and result in the unjust conviction of Dr. Moore, no doctor, patient, or parent is safe to live their conscience and by common sense in the United States of America.
Join us with the battle cry: “No Moore Tyranny”
Support Dr. Moore’s legal fight by donating here.
This report was produced by investigative journalist Edward Szall, a producer with the Died Suddenly team. If you have any tips, information, or comment please post below, or email me at Edward.r.szall@gmail.com If you enjoyed this report and others posted by the team, consider supporting our latest film project, Died Suddenly 2: Nano Sapiens, at DS2NANO.COM
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
COVID “vaccination” can’t prevent your getting COVID—or myocarditis, skin cancer or ALS—but it could give you appendicitis (or appendix cancer)
An overview of the 30+ celebrities who got something more than they expected from the jab (without a clue that that’s what happened)
| Mark Crispin MillerJul 8 |
Further indications of the global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
First, some background on the explosion in appendicitis cases since the rollout of the “vaccines” in 2021:
Rising appendix cancer rates in young adults spark concern
June 16, 2025
Compared with people born from 1941 through 1949, incidence rates of appendix cancer have more than tripled among people born between 1976 and 1984 and more than quadrupled among people born between 1981 and 1989, according to research published this week in the Annals of Internal Medicine. These increases in incidence were found to have occurred from 1975 through 2019.
Appendicitis as a possible safety signal for the COVID-19 vaccines [sic]
December 2021
Appendicitis has been suggested as an adverse event of special interest post-vaccination [sic] against COVID-19 after a numerical increase in the vaccine [sic] arm of a clinical trial.
An Israeli team have done a good study here on vaccine [sic] side effects. They found 40% increased risk of Appendicitis 42 days post vaccination [sic]
August 25, 2021
CELEBS:
Saudi crown prince undergoes surgery for appendicitis
February 25, 2021
Researcher's Note - Saudi crown prince receives first dose of Covid-19 vaccine [sic]: Link
Portia de Rossi’s Appendicitis
March 30, 2021
Researcher's Note - Ellen DeGeneres and Portia De Rossi Getting the COVID-19 Vaccine [sic] at CVS
Tom Zanetti’s son Deaconn [14] hospitalised with a burst appendix as star reveals ‘scary and upsetting’ health scare
April 15, 2021
Jedward’s Edward Grimes says it was like ‘giving birth to an alien’ after appendix burst and he had surgery
May 28, 2021
Researcher’s note - First Covid vaccination [sic] today in Ireland! Céad míle fáilte Pfizer! Let the healing start! Link
JFC, Trixie Mattel Was Rushed To Hospital After Her Appendix ‘Basically Imploded’ On A Plane
October 29, 2021
Researcher's Note - I’m 31 but I look 74 can I have a vaccine [sic]: Link
Humaima Malick suffers appendix rupture, appeals fans for prayers
November 9, 2021
Sherri Shepherd Shared a Health Update After Her Emergency Surgery [appendicitis] This Weekend
December 14, 2021
Researcher's Note – Sherri Shepherd was featured in at least twelve Hollywood projects between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link
BTS member Jimin hospitalized for appendicitis while positive for Covid-19
January 31, 2022
Researcher's Note – @BTS_twt: came to UNHQ to support action for the #GlobalGoals & a better world for everyone, stressing that they are doing their part and have all been vaccinated [sic] against #COVID19: Link
Christina Hall Reveals Son Brayden, 6, Underwent an ‘Emergency’ Appendectomy: ‘Scary 12 Hours’
May 9, 2022
Rep. Don Bacon recovering from emergency appendectomy
September 29, 2022
Researcher's Note – Congressman Bacon gets COVID-19 vaccination [sic] in Millard: Link
Adult Film Star Angela White Almost Died From Appendix Burst After Shooting Sex Scene, Co-Star Claims
February 10, 2023
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Yes the FDA is implicated in Safety Cover-Up of the deadly Malone et al. mRNA technology gene injections/vaccines, so is the NIH, CDC etc.; yes there should be blackbox warnings due to the grave side-
effects of the mRNA vaccine yet there are none! RFK Jr. has been on the job head of HHS for several months now yet this persists! Makary at FDA, seems no different than Hahn or Biden’s; it is a conjob
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 8 |
That is all I can say today. Incredibly, some who were against the Malone mRNA vaccine got jobs in the new administration, so their silence was bought with salary and camera and even Malone who sat silent knowing the grave dangers and problems with the mRNA technology and vaccine is on CDC’s advisory ACIP. You just cannot make this madness up. It is incredible that the greatest public health disasters OWS lockdowns and Malone mRNA vaccine are being covered up and presented as ‘saving lives’. And life goes on. And RFK Jr. has not removed the mRNA vaccines from market and I today will say never will. We have been fed a 6 for a 9 and IMO, all those in the health agencies now, some good people, are there ONLY to block for RFK Jr. and make you think change and fix is coming. Further from the truth. There are there to continue status quo and even expand mRNA to you all. It is all a game, like during COVID. All a lie and con. Word games. The public remains the loser.
The moment not one word was mentioned at POTUS Trump’s RNC convention of COVID or lockdowns or mRNA vaccine, the moment Ms. Wiles was made CoS, you knew the game. The con. The moment RFK Jr. advised he was endorsing Trump and then went silent on OWS lockdowns and COVID and mRNA vaccine, we knew something was up. It is all playing out now. The moment DNC and Biden also did not address COVID and the Malone deadly mRNA vaccine, in their DNC convention, you knew the fix was in.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
You have Freedom Fighter media across Trump’s term one vilifying him, hating Trump, across COVID hating him and hammering the OWS lockdowns and the deadly Malone mRNA vaccine, and now, will do a new set of interviews like EPOCH as an example, and pretend the history and past is not there, and all is fine. Pretend that you gave them donor money and relevance for standing up. Now they bail on you. Got your money. Anything for bullshit and more donor money. For camera. These duplicitous peoples evidence they have zero line of integrity, and their line is movable…for the right price.
So yes, McCullough is correct here. Good stack article on blackbox warning and the deadly Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccine.
‘Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Remain on Market without Boxed Warnings
Fatal Vaccine Myocarditis Deserves Black Box, FDA Implicated in Safety Cover-Up’
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. The Wellness Company, launched in 2022, offers health care, prescriptions, and supplements, all backed by research
The Wellness Company isn’t chasing profits — it’s trying to help people recover. While the government continues pushing vaccines, The Wellness Company is focusing on real solutions.
From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
Please consider support of a good PATRIOT company (in this PATRIOT economy) Drs. McCullough, Risch, Thorp, myself support (they are our sponsors), The Wellness Company; see the emergency preparation kit (key component being antibiotics you were denied by doctors, pharmacists, governments during the fraud COVID), first aid kit, travel emergency kit, contagion control kit etc. Please consider the SPIKE SUPPORT (spike protein DETOX dissolving spike from mRNA vaccine, this is critical to remove spike form the mRNA vaccine/and DNA viral vector) formula with NATTOKINASE as well as the triple formula (SPIKE SUPPORT, BROMELAIN, CIRCUMIN)
end
This repeat is for RFK Jr.!!! SIDS & infant/child vaccines as the plot thickens when Japan ends mandatory child vaccines & then SIDS disappears in Japan? Expert warns that Japan’s sudden infant
death syndrome (SIDS) crisis “disappeared” as soon as the government ended the country’s mandatory “vaccine” schedule.”; will Makary, Prasad, CDC, NIH, FDA, HHS officials recognize children die
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 8 |
from vaccines more than disease?
I am hoping RFK Jr. keeps this central to him. This is real and he railed against this prior and I grew to admire him deeply for this. We need that RFK Jr. to return and soon. This issue about childhood vaccines and safety is critical now especially as to the disaster of COVID. The issue is troubling for parents.
Japan Ends Mandatory Child ‘Vaccines,’ Sudden Infant Deaths ‘Disappear’ – Slay News
Top Pediatrician Sounds Alarm: Children Are ‘More Likely to Die from Vaccines Than the Disease’
‘A leading pediatrician is sounding the alarm about childhood vaccinations, warning that children “are more likely to die from the vaccine than from the disease itself.”
NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
| TEST NEWS: |
| Hundreds of Dangerous Criminals, Illegal Aliens Arrested During Major Operation in New Jersey – EVOL |
| Read more… |
| Toxic Microplastics Found in Human Reproductive Fluids amid Global Fertility Crisis – EVOL |
| Read more… |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
Lights Out, Europe: The Cost Of Brussels’ Energy Fantasy
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Javier Villamor via europeanconservative.com,
Spain’s leading energy companies – Iberdrola, Endesa, and EDP – remain stunned. After the nationwide blackout that cut power across Spain on April 28, the government has yet to provide a clear explanation or take technical responsibility…
The companies, represented by the employers’ association Aelec, have denounced “surprising omissions” in the official investigation. They demand that the extreme voltage spikes recorded in the days leading up to the collapse be included in the analysis. They have criticized the preliminary report from ENTSO-E—the European network of electricity operators—for claiming that “the system was operating normally” just seconds before the failure. Meanwhile, severe voltage swings were recorded, going beyond safety limits and triggering automatic shutdowns of high-voltage substations and key refineries.
This episode is far more than an isolated incident. It is a metaphor for the erratic direction taken by the European Union’s energy policy. In the name of climate change, Brussels has embarked on a radical overhaul of its energy model driven not by technical or economic realities, but by an ideological agenda imposed by political and bureaucratic elites. What was marketed as a smooth transition toward renewable energy has turned into a forced green agenda, with no viable alternatives and little regard for its impact on competitiveness, system stability, or citizens’ well-being.
At the root of this drift lies the REPowerEU plan, launched after the start of the war in Ukraine with the stated aim of “fully decoupling” Europe from Russian energy. What initially appeared to be a justified geostrategic measure quickly became, in the hands of the European Commission, a pretext to push through renewable energies at any cost. This led to a rushed and uneven transition, with citizens and businesses footing the bill.
This leap into the void has destabilized key sectors such as agriculture, transport, and industry, forcing them to absorb rising costs without receiving real technological upgrades. Countries like Germany, which shut down their nuclear plants out of political conviction, have now had to reopen coal-fired stations in a contradictory reversal. Meanwhile, state propaganda continues to promote green energy self-sufficiency, while households face record electricity bills and companies lose competitiveness.
The structural failures of the European power grid are becoming increasingly evident. The continental grid was designed for stable and predictable hydro, gas, and nuclear sources. The mass introduction of intermittent sources like wind and solar makes imbalances difficult to manage: without wind or sun, generation collapses; with too much, the grid becomes dangerously overloaded.
On April 28th, the Iberian Peninsula experienced those consequences firsthand. Abnormal voltage levels were detected in several substations throughout the morning. To grasp the gravity: a “voltage oscillation” involves a sudden and significant fluctuation in the grid’s voltage, which can damage equipment, trigger automatic disconnections, or, in extreme cases, cause a total blackout. At the Lancha substation, voltage reached nearly 250 kV on a line rated for 220. Another line, rated at 400 kV, surpassed 470 kV just before the collapse. According to Aelec, these anomalies began as early as 10:00 a.m. While a sudden drop of 2,200 MW in generation has been cited as the trigger, the system is theoretically built to withstand a loss of up to 3,000 MW without shutting down. This was not a coincidental failure—it was a built-in weakness.
Beyond technical and political issues, the forced energy transition takes a human toll. European households are paying more for electricity, hitting middle- and lower-income families especially hard. Electrification of transport, promoted without adequate foresight, is raising the cost of mobility due to a lack of reliable charging infrastructure. Farmers and truckers, already squeezed by unmanageable climate regulations, face growing expenses while being pressured to make investments they cannot afford.
Moreover, blackouts are no minor issue: their impact ranges from multimillion-euro industrial losses to the paralysis of hospitals, schools, and transport networks. In Spain, the outage even cost five people their lives. An energy model that cannot ensure a steady supply threatens the economy and public safety.
European industry, particularly in the central and southern parts of the continent, is already bearing the brunt. Unable to compete with American or Asian energy prices, many companies are relocating production or shutting down. Paradoxically, even sectors the green agenda promotes, such as electric vehicles, are faltering. Once-dominant car industries in Germany and France are struggling to stay afloat in an increasingly competitive global market. While Europe imposes ideological standards, China manufactures more, better, and cheaper. Deindustrialization is no longer a threat—it’s a fact. Notably, some factions on the Left even embrace “degrowth”—deliberate economic decline—as a desirable path.
Worse still, despite all these sacrifices, Europe continues to import Russian energy—now via third countries—and remains vulnerable to geopolitical pressure. The promise of energy independence often rings hollow.
The Green Deal has morphed from a promise of modernization into a political myth: a story no longer grounded in reality, propped up by propaganda that refuses to confront its contradictions. The public, increasingly aware of the real costs, is beginning to push back. The farmers’ resistance in the Netherlands gave rise to a political party now part of the ruling coalition. In other countries, protests and citizen discontent are multiplying. And this is only the beginning. This very week, farmers returned to Brussels to protest the suffocating policies they face.
An energy transition is not inherently harmful, but cannot be imposed dogmatically. It requires realism, technological pluralism, gradual implementation, and a willingness to adopt what works. Nuclear, hydro, and natural gas must be part of the energy mix while green technologies mature. Sustainability will not be achieved by denying physics or punishing citizens, but by integrating every available tool with a long-term vision.
What happened in Spain is a symptom, not an accident.
Europe’s current energy model is not equipped to operate under the conditions imposed by Brussels. There is an urgent need to rethink energy policy—not through ideology, but through engineering, economics, and common sense. If the energy transition is to be our path forward, let it be pursued with caution, technological plurality, and respect for the system’s real limitations.
Europe cannot afford to stumble in the dark in the name of a green light; it still does not know how to switch on.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
CANADA
“Runaway Spending”: Canada on Track for $92 Billion Deficit, Think Tank Projects
Monday, Jul 07, 2025 – 05:20 PM
The federal government is on pace to post a $92-billion deficit this fiscal year — nearly double what was projected just four months ago, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. If accurate, it would mark the second-largest deficit in Canadian history, trailing only the $327.7-billion shortfall of 2020-21 during the pandemic, according to National Post.
“The picture is definitely not pretty,” said Alexandre Laurin, C.D. Howe’s vice-president, who co-authored the report with William Robson and Don Drummond.
The think tank now forecasts annual deficits of over $77 billion for the next four years, far higher than the government’s projections in its most recent budget — which is now more than a year old. The report criticizes the government’s delay in tabling a new budget, saying, “Delaying a budget until the fiscal year is more than half over is never good, but Canada’s current high-spending trajectory makes this delay especially bad.”
National Post writes C.D. Howe attributes the worsening outlook to rising defence spending, Trump-era tariffs, tax cuts, and the scrapped digital services tax. It also questions whether promised revenue boosts from fines, penalties, and savings will materialize.
The report notes Ottawa is making major fiscal commitments without disclosing key figures, including the expected tax intake, spending levels, and future interest payments. “Ottawa is making costly commitments… without showing key numbers to the public,” it warns.
“It is widely accepted that Canada’s economy is at a critical crossroads,” the authors write. “So are Canada’s finances – beyond the economic drag of high deficits and rising debt, it is unfair to pass these burdens on to the current young and future generations.”
In contrast, the Parliamentary Budget Officer had projected in March that the federal deficit would shrink to $50.1 billion this year, with continued improvements in future years — assuming no major new spending or tax cuts.
C.D. Howe recommends the government cut operating costs, abandon some costly platform promises, consider increasing less harmful taxes like the GST, and reduce federal transfers. It also rejects Ottawa’s plan to separate operating and capital budgets: “The large deficits projected in this update cannot be downplayed or disguised by dividing the budget into two new categories.”
The report concludes that greater transparency is essential: “The government must improve its accountability by sharing its revenue and spending figures with taxpayers.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1761 UP 0.0024 PTS OR 24 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 146.03 UP 0.139 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3641 UP .0017 OR 17 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3638 DOWN 0.0026(CDN DOLLAR UP 26 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 24.55 PTS OR 0.70%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 253.11 PTS OR 1.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.03%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 253.11 PTS OR 1.06%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.55 PTS OR 0.70%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.03 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 101.13 PTS OR 0,26%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3333.40
silver:$36.85
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.83 DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.131% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.495% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.301 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.557 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6470 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1703 DOWN 0.0032 OR 32 basis points
USA/Japan: 146,84 UP 0.957 OR YEN IS DOWN 96 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6410 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0010 OR 10 BASIS pts to 1.3675
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1741 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1812
TURKISH LIRA: 40.02 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.495
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.429% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.972 UP 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.911 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3321,40
SILVER AT 11;00: 36.60
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 47.65 PTS OR 0.54%
GERMAN DAX: UP 133.24 pts or 0.55%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 43.24 pts or 0.56%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 4.70pts or 0.03%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 268.37 or 0.67%
WTI Oil price 67.68 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 69.36 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.14 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 55/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.436 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.965 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1723 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3588 DOWN .0035 OR 35 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6320 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.486 UP 2 FULL BASIS PT
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.63 UP 0.745 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3686 UP 0.0017 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.48
Brent OIL: 70.10
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.410
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 PTS to 4.9410%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 0 PTS AT 3.905%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.438 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.967 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.19 UP 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.02 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 78.50 UP 0 AND 20/100 roubles
GOLD $3302.75 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 36.46 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 165.60 OR .37%
NASDAQ 100 UP 16.68 PTS OR 0.075%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.83 DOWN 0.96 PTS OR 5.40%
GLD: $ 304.12 DOWN 3.21 PTS OR 1.04%
SLV/ $33.29 DOWN 0.14 PTS OR OR 0.42%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 127.92 PTS OR .47%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
“Squeezy, Violent Moves” – Hedge Funds Hammered As Momo Meltdown Resumes, Bonds & Bullion Dumped
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Market-moving catalysts continue to be scarce this week with little new information coming on economic and corporate America front. On the data front today, investors are digesting a modest pullback in the NFIB small business sentiment survey – which came in mostly in-line with expectations.
However, yields on 10-Year US Treasuries have climbed ~10 bps since Monday as tremors in Japanese bond markets ripple throughout global sovereign debt yields…
Source: Bloomberg
Commenting on the move in rates, Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky writes that JGBs worth watching again, but the biggest factor may be that there is “plenty of bond supply this week, especially in the long end, where support has dried up (CTA/technical flows faded).”
While geopolitical uncertainty continued to fall, trade policy uncertainty is back on the rise…
Source: Bloomberg
Equity markets were very mixed today with Small Caps outperforming (big squeeze) while The Dow lagged (GS & JPM leading the decline) and S&P and Nasdaq toiled away around unchanged…
While a glance at the S&P or Nasdaq would not raise an eyebrow, things were wild under the hood with a major short-squeeze higher, erasing all of yesterday’s losses…
Source: Bloomberg
…offset by another meltdown in the momentum names (described as “violent” and “squeezy” by Goldman’s trading desk)…
Source: Bloomberg
…which left our proxy for hedge funds positioning back near YTD lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading desk (peter Callahan) notes that while the NDX is still sitting near ATHs, up 9 of 11 sessions, and the VIX is back with a 16-handle today, investor ‘tension’ has picked up in the last 48hrs (esp today … despite S&P flat on day)…
…with a number of inbounds around the action today with Non Profitable Tech, Tech Most Short, 12-mo Laggards and TMT Value all the best performing factors on the day (at a stock level, Analog Semis, IT Services and Software all jump out]…
whereas ‘loved’ / ‘quality’ names are leaking lower [AMZN, NFLX, UBER, NOW, SNOW, STX, TKO, SE, RBLX types down 1-3% on the session] ..
… no ‘great’ reason for the unwind action today – feels like some loose attention on Rates again (e.g. US 10yr Yields up ~18 bps in 5-days = one of sharper moves this year, and, yes, 30yr Yields approaching 5-handle range again) and then…
… some acknowledgement that long books / ideas have felt stretched (if not stale?), so, perhaps some ‘normalizing’ into earnings after an intense run down the stretch of 2Q …
TSLA gave up its early gains after Musk questioned Trump’s Epstein bullshittery…
As we noted above, Treasury yields kept soaring today (with the long-end underperforming: 30Y +4bps, 2Y +2bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
With TSLA market cap falling back below $1 trillion as NVDA’s market cap nears $4 trillion…
Source: Bloomberg
The 30Y Yield topped 4.95%, heading for a region that was problematic for equities in May…
Source: Bloomberg
With the UST 20Y yield above the 30Y yield for first time since Oct 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations continued to (hawkishly) slide today…
Source: Bloomberg
Bear in mind that Global sovereign bond yields are merely following the global macro surprise index higher (stronger growth)…
Source: Bloomberg
Around lunchtime, commodities went wild as Trump suddenly unleashed 50% tariffs on copper imports, sending US copper prices to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, Gold was dumped down to find support at $3300…
Source: Bloomberg
…as the dollar rallied (though it did give some gains back during the US afternoon)… slowly ratcheting higher and erasing the losses from mid-June..
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was steady overnight finding support once again at around $107k before bouncing higher above $109k…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended their gains, slowly but surely erasing the losses post-Israel-Iran peace plunge…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, and right on cue as we make new highs, Goldman Sachs David Kostin raised his 3-, 6-, and 12-month S&P 500 return forecasts to +3% (6400), +6% (6600), and +11% (6900)…
The driver of the upgrade is a combination of: 1) Earlier and deeper Fed easing and lower bond yields than we previously expected, 2) continued fundamental strength of the largest stocks, 3) and investors’ willingness to look through likely near-term earnings weakness support our revised S&P 500 forward P/E forecast of 22x (from 20.4x)
Bear in mind that Warren Buffett would definitely not be buying here as his infamous indicator reaches a new record high!!!
Source: Bloomberg
In the short-term, Gamma is negative (meaning moves will be exaggerated one way or the other), and the strong seasonal tailwind will be quickly erased by the end of next week amid a flurry of macro (CPI), micro (earnings), and policy (FOMC) headlines.
BIG NEWS OF THE DAY
Duration Destruction: Long-Dated Bond Yields Blowing Up Around The Globe
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 03:30 PM
Duration destruction: that’s how one can summarize the overnight surge in yields on the long-end, which started in Japan after another ugly 5Y auction, moved to Europe where markets are starting to wonder just how Germany, and the continent, will pay for all that fiscal stimulus, and concluded in the US where the realization that US debt will soon hit $50 trillion is starting to raise its ugly head.
What happened? Well, as usually is the case these days, bonds took their cue from jitters in Japan over the country’s political situation and associated fiscal risks. Japanese 30-year bond yields rose as much as 13 basis points after another poor 5Y auction (Bid/Cover tumbled to 3.54 from 4.58), as well as on growing fears the country’s rice (hyper)inflation and upcoming elections could lead to a government collapse (see “Will Japan’s Rice Price Shock Lead To Government Collapse And Spark A Global Bond Crisis“). Shortly after, Australian bonds also slump after the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged.
That fed into weakness in the long-end across Europe: German 30-year bund yields hit the highest level since March, benchmark 10-year yields up by around five basis points across countries. A flurry of supply is also weighing. 10-year Treasury yields up four basis points, with the 30Y US treasury once again breathing down 5.0%’s neck (4.96% to be precise).
Commenting on the move in rates, Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky writes that JGBs worth watching again, but the biggest factor may be that there is “plenty of bond supply this week, especially in the long end, where support has dried up (CTA/technical flows faded).” And indeed, after European – and especially German – markets erupted higher at the start of the year on expectations of a fiscal flood, now the time has come to pay the piper… in bunds. Watch this space to see just how high German yields will soar, and how high German inflation will get… and the mandatory angry response by the local population which realizes there is never such a thing as a free lunch, or anti-aircraft missile. The silver lining is that at least for now, the front-end remains well anchored.
Anyway back to Privorotsky who correctly notes that “we’re back to watching rates. To echo consensus, the curve needs to get steeper and steeper.”
And so far today, the curve has certainly not disappointed.
END
AND THEN THIS; STUDENT LOANS INCREASES AGAIN//CREDIT CARD PLUNGES.
(THE FED)
Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Plunges As Student Loans Soar: Consumer Credit Update
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 03:54 PM
One month after consumer credit unexpectedly jumped the most in 2025, when it spiked by $17.9 billion (since revised to $16.9 billion) in the month of April, moments ago the Fed released its monthly consumer credit report which showed that the yoyo action in credit-fueled consumer spending continued, and in May while total consumer credit rose a modest $5.1 billion, half of the $10.55 billion expected, it was all on the back of non-revolving credit (i.e., student and car loans). That’s because revolving (or credit card) debt slumped by $3.5 billion, the first drop in 2025, and the second biggest monthly decline since covid.
Starting with nonrevolving credit, the monthly change remained sturdy, with the total rising to a new record high of $3.749 trillion…
… although the composition is curious, with auto loans actually shrinking in Q1 by $8.5 billion to $1.555 trillion, while student loans – which for years had flatlined thanks to BIden’s repayment moratorium – soared by $27 billion in Q1 to a new record high just over $1.8 trillion, their biggest quarterly increase since the $34.1 billion spent on stuff lessons during the covid pandemic.
But, as noted above, it was revolving credit that was the standout in May and as shown below, credit card debt unexpectedly shrank by $3.5 billion to just under $1.299 trillion.
Such sudden drops in credit card debt are always concerning and indicative of either a sharp reversal looming in the economy, or households who are stuffed with debt and no longer want – or can get – more credit for purchases.
We expect to find out which is the right answer in the coming months.
USA DATA RELEASES
NY Fed Inflation Expectations Tumble To Pre-Tariff Levels, As Consumer Sentiment Blossoms
25 PM
So much for the Democrats’ panic that the US is about to be hit with hyperinflation (because Toyota is footing US tariff costs).
Moments ago, the NY Fed reported that consumer expectations for future inflation have return to levels last seen at the beginning of the year, before the announcement of aggressive new tariffs, as the fake panic that Trump is about to spark the same runaway inflation that his predecessor unleashed, fade away.
The June survey showed median expectations for consumer price increases one year ahead decreased for the second straight month in June, falling back to 3%, back to where they were at the end of 2024 and before Trump had launched his tariff strategy. Estimates for annualized inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 3% and 2.6%. Inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, decreased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and was unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon
Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 1.5 percentage points for gas to 4.2%, by 1.9 percentage points for the cost of medical care to 9.3% (the highest level since June 2023), by 1.6 percentage points for the cost of college education to 9.1%, and by 0.7 percentage point for rent to 9.1%. Median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%.
Overall household sentiment also benefited, as unemployment and job loss expectations improved. To wit, mean unemployment expectation, or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from no, decreased by 1.1 percentage point to 39.7%…
… while the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.8% to 14.0%, the lowest level since December 2024. The decrease was broad-based across age and education groups
Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage point to 2.5% in June, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. The series has been moving within the range between 2.5% and 3.0% since May 2021
While spending growth expectations slightly declined, household income growth expectations increased: the median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.9% in June, equaling its 12-month trailing average.
Households were also more optimistic about their year-ahead financial situations and credit access
Finally, after sliding to a record low 33.8% in March, household expectations for higher stock prices one year from now rose to 36.0%…
… and while expectations for growth in government debt also rose to a 7.3% annual increase, the highest since October, the real number will be much, much higher now that Trump’s BBB (and future US credit rating) has passed.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
US Cancels 54 Contracts, Saves $804 Million In 2 Days: DOGE
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 09:45 AM
Federal government agencies terminated 54 contracts over two days that netted $804 million in savings, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said in a July 5 post on social media platform X.
The canceled “wasteful contracts” had a ceiling value of $1.8 billion, it said.
These include an “$842k USAID professional services contract for a ‘director of the Armenia innovation hub within the USAID/Armenia Economic Growth Office’ and a $33k USAGM contract for ‘24/7 FM broadcast services to the Togolese Republic.’”
As Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times, DOGE’s announcement follows Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s confirmation of the shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on July 1, arguing that the foreign assistance provided by the agency failed to deliver results for Americans.
USAID was part of a “globe-spanning NGO industrial complex” funded by U.S. taxpayers, he said, using the abbreviation of “nongovernmental organization.”
In a July 6 post on X, DOGE commended the Office of Personnel Management for having cut its annual spending on federal contracts by 50 percent while “improving both the quality and scope of its services.”
For instance, the agency saved $5.9 million through restructuring the IT helpdesk while also instituting efficiency measures.
“As a result, the average ticket backlog dropped by 30 percent,” DOGE said.
According to a June 29 update by DOGE, the initiative has so far saved $190 billion in taxpayer funds through measures such as contract/lease cancellations and renegotiations, fraud and improper payment deletion, cancellation of grants, and asset sales.
This translates into roughly $1,180 saved per American taxpayer.
Some of the “strangest, most baffling uses” of government funding uncovered by DOGE include a $2.8 million grant to address “historic and systemic racial inequities” in STEM education and a $6.9 million grant for teaching social and emotional learning from an “antiracist approach.”
Agencies that have generated the most savings under DOGE include the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Department of Education, and the Office of Personnel Management.
DOGE has been operating for more than a month without Elon Musk at its head. Musk left the initiative in May after his tenure as a special government employee expired.
Subsequently, Musk and President Donald Trump engaged in an escalating public feud over the One Big Beautiful Bill, which Trump signed into law on July 4.
Musk has criticized spending in the new law, saying it will increase the United States’ debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
Privacy Issue, Codifying DOGE Practices
DOGE has come under fire from Democrats over the issue of citizen privacy. In a June 8 letter to the acting inspector general of the Department of Education, Democrat lawmakers accused the agency of refusing to provide them with “key information” regarding DOGE’s “infiltration” of the department.
This includes DOGE employees’ access to sensitive data, the letter said.
“Because of the Department’s refusal to provide full and complete information, the full extent of DOGE’s role and influence at [the Department of Education] remains unknown,” the lawmakers wrote.
“This lack of clarity is not only frustrating for borrowers but also dangerous for the future of an agency that handles an extensive student loan portfolio and a range of federal aid programs for higher education.”
Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers introduced the “DOGE in Spending Act” last month, which aims to codify DOGE practices to identify and prevent improper and fraudulent payments, according to a June 5 statement from the office of Sen. Kevin Kramer (R-N.D.), one of the lawmakers who introduced the bill.
The act seeks to modernize the Treasury’s payment oversight system. It would require each federal disbursement to specify the purpose of the expenditure and the source of funding.
“From the moment he took office, President Trump laid out a clear agenda: eliminate waste, reduce unnecessary spending, and restore fiscal sanity to Washington,” Cramer said.
“The Department of Government Efficiency has delivered—cutting through layers of bureaucracy.
“This agency has taken a scalpel to the federal government, slashing misspending, and eliminating fraudulent and improper payments. By codifying DOGE’s best practices, we safeguard the taxpayer dollars of North Dakotans and Americans across the country.”
The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
END
“No Extensions” – Trump Strikes Back Against TACO Talk With Aug. 1 Tariff Deadline
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 11:15 AM
President Trump’s social media team fired off a barrage of trade warning letters on Monday, including ones sent to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tunisia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand. Each letter explained the new tariff rates—ranging from 25% to 40%—on goods exported from the respective country to the U.S.
The president announced on Tuesday via his social media platform, Truth Social, that more tariff warning letters will be sent out today, and that no further trade extensions will be granted. The hard deadline remains August 1—meaning countries that have yet to strike a deal with the Trump administration will soon begin paying levies on their products entering U.S. ports.
“As per letters sent to various countries yesterday, in addition to letters that will be sent today, tomorrow, and for the next short period of time, TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025,” Trump wrote on Truth Social at 10:45 ET.
He continued, “There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change. In other words, all money will be due and payable starting AUGUST 1, 2025 – No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
An overview of the letters issued thus far (as of Monday evening):
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose higher tariff rates of 25%-40% on key trading partners and signed an executive order holding off the new duties until August 1.
- Tariffs on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia, would be 25%, South Africa and Bosnia 30%, Indonesia 32%, Bangladesh and Serbia 35%, Thailand and Cambodia 36%, while Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy.
- Meanwhile, Trump suggested the possibility of additional trade negotiations and delays at the White House shortly after he sent out the tariff letters, as he said the notifications were “not 100% firm”. He also said the U.S. is close in making a deal with India.
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said additional letters will arrive in the coming days.
Main takeaways:
- The deadline was pushed towards August 1 vs. July 9;
- Announced new tariff levels (effective on August 1) for 14 countries
- Trump said that the tariffs on each country would be separate from any “sectoral” tariffs that he imposes;
- We should expect more deals/letters coming: Leavitt said Trump will send more letters
Goldman’s take on the effects of implemented, expected, and/or proposed tariffs on the U.S. effective tariff rate…
The U.S. Dollar and UST10Y have been tracking higher since the European market opened…
*Developing…
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
A NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 8, 2025 Issue 7528 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump: “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy…” ESUs traded sharply lower but sideways from the Nikkei opening on Monday until a possible TACO rally commenced at 5:50 ET. Trump to hold off on new 10% BRICs tariffs if countries change ‘anti-American’ policies – source The Trump administration does not intend to immediately impose a new 10% tariff against members of the developing nation BRICS bloc, but will proceed if individual countries take so-called “anti-American” policy actions, according to a source familiar with the matter… – Reuters. https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3T40MI:0-trump-to-hold-off-on-new-10-brics-tariffs-if-countries-change-anti-american-policies-source/ ESUs hit a daily high of 6315.00 at 8:17 ET. ESUs then began a decline that took ESUs to 6280.50 at 11:47 ET. The post-European close contra-move boosted ESUs to 6291.25 at 12:05 ET. At 12:19 ET, Trump happened (Posted on Trump Truth Social)! Trump Says Will Impose 25% Tariff on Japan (and South Korea) – BBG 12:19 ET ESUs sank to 6260.25 at 12:22 ET. The usual suspects eagerly bought the dip; ESUs had an A-B-C Rally to 6282.50 at 13:29 ET. ESUs then sank when new tariffs were announced: South Africa 30%, Malasia 25%, Kazakhstan 25%, Laos 40%, and Myanmar 40% ESUs sank to a new daily low of 6246.25 at 14:18 ET. The belated afternoon rally took ESUs to 6272.00 at 15:01 ET. After a modest retreat, ESUs traded sideways until the late manipulation began at 15:50 ET. ESUs hit 6278.00 at 15:59 ET and then fell to 6269.00 at 16:03 ET. @elonmusk: Bessent is a Soros stooge. And he’s a political science major who can’t even do math. The polling for me was very positive a year ago, which is why Trump used me so much. @Chesschick01: Do you know Scott Bessent was an executive for George Soros for over a decade? @elonmusk: The fundamental impediment to shutting down many of the fraudulent NGOs was that some Republicans were in on the crime. Read that statement again. Positive aspects of previous session The dollar rallied moderately. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank on tariff angst. USUs declined as much as 1 4/32. Gold rallied modestly. Ambiguous aspects of previous session When will Team Trump’s deceit hit a tipping point with DJT supporters? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6231.02 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6262.07; 6201.00 DOJ, FBI conclude Epstein had no “client list,” died by suicide Investigators found “no incriminating ‘client list’ ” of Epstein’s, “no credible evidence … that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals,” and no “evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties,” the memo adds… The DOJ and FBI say in the memo that no “further disclosure” of Epstein-related material “would be appropriate or warranted.” The memo says much of the material relates to child sexual abuse, details of Epstein’s victims, and information that would expose innocent individuals to “allegations of wrongdoing.” “Through this review, we found no basis to revisit the disclosure of those materials and will not permit the release of child pornography,” the memo says. https://www.axios.com/2025/07/07/jeffrey-epstein-suicide-client-list-trump-administration https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407001/dl?inline Trump’s DoJ issued an obvious and disgusting lie: ‘We wouldn’t release the evidence because it contains “child sexual abuse,” but” there is no evidence that could predicate an investigation…”!’ Ghislaine Maxwell May Be Helping Feds Expose Epstein’s Elite Network: Author Ghislaine Maxwell could avoid serving the full 20-year sentence she received for helping Jeffrey Epstein traffic and abuse underage girls…While the idea of Epstein’s secret “client list” has long been a source of speculation, Palmeri says it doesn’t exist. What she claims is real, however, is highly sensitive video and photo evidence collected from Epstein’s house, which could still bring down some of the world’s most powerful men… https://www.yahoo.com/news/ghislaine-maxwell-may-helping-feds-041530321.html @MikeBenzCyber: Alex Acosta, the DOJ official who gave Jeffrey Epstein the sweetheart plea deal in 2008 and who was quoted saying he was “told to back off Epstein because he belonged to intelligence” mysteriously had all 11 months of DOJ emails to him in that time period mysteriously disappear… https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1942161604151304285 @cspan: Fox’s @pdoocy: What happened to the Epstein client list that the Attorney General said she had on her desk? @PressSec: She was saying the entirety of all of the paper work all of the paper in relation to Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes, that’s what the Attorney General was referring to. https://x.com/cspan/status/1942280181890023756 CNN: During a February 21 interview on Fox News, host John Roberts asked whether DOJ would release a “list of Jeffrey Epstein’s clients.” “Will that really happen?” Roberts asked. Bondi responded: “It’s sitting on my desk right now to review. That’s been a directive by President Trump. I’m reviewing that.”… the question was specifically about the purported list – not other files related to Epstein… https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/07/politics/bondi-epstein-files-client-list-suicide-memo (Bondi-Roberts interview): https://x.com/C_3C_3/status/1942042558839804310 Pam Bondi Confirms Ark of The Covenant Sitting on Her Desk Waiting to Be Reviewed https://buff.ly/CJrEh1C Elon Musk Ridicules Trump Admin’s Epstein Claims “What’s the time? Oh look, it’s no-one-has-been-arrested-o’clock again,” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO wrote on X. He added an image with the text, “The Official Jeffrey Epstein Pedophile Arrest Counter” and the numerals “0000.”… https://www.newsmax.com/politics/elon-musk-mocks-trump/2025/07/07/id/1217837/ Press Sec Leavitt issued this lie: “Trump never mentioned takeover of Gaza, but rebuilding.” – BBG Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza would put Americans at risk of prosecution https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-proposal-to-take-over-gaza-would-put-americans-at-risk-of-prosecution/ @bennyjohnson: The major problem the DOJ and FBI is facing right now is Americans trust in these institutions is around 0%. Americans have been lied to systematically, on a daily basis by DOJ and FBI leadership for decades. We have hit rock bottom, absolute crisis of confidence. Team Trump did not break these Institutions — but they own them now, so they inherit the nightmare. This is why the old ‘just trust us bro we looked into it’ is NOT going to work anymore. Especially with Epstein. It will only make Americans more furious and erode further faith… @unusual_whales: It seems there is a minute missing from the Jeffery Epstein footage, released by the DOJ. Minute 11:58:59 to 11:59:59PM. They released 10 hours of footage yesterday, claiming it showed he killed himself. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1942280375902015777 @SarahisCensored: Statement Release from Austin Firefighters Association… the Austin Fire Chief DENIED the deployment of Austin firefighters to Kerrville until very late into the event (so today!), with the exception of only 3 AFD rescue swimmers who helped staff helo teams (which still were NOT deployed until the afternoon of the 4th). The Austin Firefighter Special Operations teams are specially trained for Hill Country swift water rescue and are some of the best, if not the best, swift water boat teams in the State of Texas. (Dems hyped TX as a red state, but Austin is Dem controlled & very woke!) It is absolutely outrageous that the Austin Fire Chief, Joel G. Baker, would not allow highly trained firefighters from Austin to respond to Kerrville. Because of this egregious dereliction of duty, LIVES WERE VERY LIKELY LOST BECAUSE OF CHIEF BAKER’S DECISION! Deployment orders came down from the State of Texas on July 2. We would’ve been pre-deployed before the waters even began to rise! It is unforgivable that a fire chief would NOT allow his firefighters to answer the call to save lives. (Dems & MSM spent 2 days blaming DJT. Will MSM cover this factor?) Why would Fire Chief Joel G. Baker do this, you may ask? It was a misguided attempt to save money. I say “misguided” because the fire department is fully reimbursed by the state to deploy. I explained the reimbursement process to Chief Baker last week, and he failed to understand this very simple concept. We are disgusted with our fire chief. He needs to be held accountable and fired for his disgraceful dereliction of duty. The Austin Firefighters are starting a vote of no confidence on Tuesday on the fire chief… https://x.com/SarahisCensored/status/1942326608435540478 The City of Austion canceled its 4th of July fireworks due to flash flood warnings! https://x.com/icecastles22/status/1942329151425597700/photo/1 CNBC: The U.S. dollar tumbled 10.7% against its global peers through June, making it the worst first half since 1973. After the NYSE close, DJT announced these tariffs: Thailand 36%, Cambodia 36%, Serbia 35%, Indonesia 32%, Bosnia 30%, Tunisia 25% (Ex-Fed Gov) Warsh Says Fed’s Rates Should be Lower, Tariffs Not Inflationary – BBG 17:05 ET Today – Traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday and TACO Tuesday. The TACO trade pattern is Trump talking tough about or issuing tariffs on Monday or over the weekend and then rescinding or reducing them on Tuesday. The S&P 500 low on Monday was 6201.00. 6200 is obvious key support. ESUs have rallied smartly from their evening lows on TACO. DJT: The Aug 1 deadline is “firm but NOT 100% certain… some tariffs we’ll adjust a little bit…” ESUs are -7.00; NQUs are -10.00; USUs are +5/32; and gold is +1.60 at 20:00 ET. Expected Economic Data: May Wholesale Trade Sales 0.2% m/m, Inventories -0.3% m/m; FOMC Minutes 6/18 Meeting 14:00 ET Expected Earnings: DAL 1.07, CAG 0.59 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5904; 100-day MA: 5782; 150-day MA: 5855; 200-day MA: 5846 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,181; 100-day MA: 42,064; 150-day MA: 42,637; 200-day MA: 42,665 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6229.98 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5481.62 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6141.00 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6270.50 triggers a buy signal Border Patrol ambushed by active shooter at Texas immigration facility (MSM trying to spike it!) https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-border-patrol-ambushed-by-active-shooter-at-texas-immigration-facility#google_vignette GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: This act of terror was fueled by Democrats’ vocal hatred of immigration law and our great ICE agents. Threats to harm or dox law enforcement officers, especially those made by elected officials, must stop… Democrats told to “get shot” for the anti-Trump resistance (Blue Dog Dems now Mad Dog Dems) Democratic members of Congress are facing a growing thrum of demands to break the rules, fight dirty — and not be afraid to get hurt… House Democrats told Axios they see a growing anger among their base that has, in some cases, morphed into a disregard for American institutions, political traditions and even the rule of law… a “sense of fear and despair and anger” among voters “puts us in a different position where … we can’t keep following norms of decorum.”…what we really need to do is be willing to get shot” when visiting ICE facilities or federal agencies… “… there needs to be blood to grab the attention of the press and the public,” the lawmaker said… Many lawmakers said these voters tend to be white, well-educated and live in upscale suburban or urban neighborhoods… “The expectations aren’t just unreal. They’re dangerous,” the eighth House Democrat said… https://www.axios.com/2025/07/07/democrats-trump-resistance-violence-congress GOP Sen. @berniemoreno: Same day Axios reports liberal radicals are calling for violence at ICE facilities, TX border patrol targeted by a sniper. Law enforcement is under attack. I intro’ed a bill last month to crack down on assaults on federal officers but Dems blocked it. GOP Sen. @SenTomCotton: The demonization of ICE agents by pro-illegal immigration Democrat politicians and the liberal media has consequences… @libsoftiktok: A few hours after this was published, an armed psycho ambushed immigration enforcement officials at a facility and shot a cop. Axios and these Dems know exactly what they’re doing. @libsoftiktok: Singer and actor Joshua Evans posted this calling to “Butcher” Christians who voted for Trump. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1942271594220364174 Pediatrician fired for vile post suggesting Texas flood victims were Trump supporters who got ‘what they voted for’ – Dr. Christina B. Propst drew widespread scorn following the disparaging, since-deleted post under her old Facebook username, Chris Tina… “Kerr County MAGA voted to gut FEMA. They deny climate change. May they get what they voted for. Bless their hearts.”… https://nypost.com/2025/07/07/us-news/pediatrician-fired-for-vile-post-politicizing-devastating-texas-floods-may-they-get-what-they-voted-for/ Former Houston mayoral appointee rages at flooded Texas girls camp for being ‘white-only’ Perkins was appointed to the city’s Food Insecurity Board by former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner in 2023…she recorded the rolling homepage for Camp Mystic while ranting about its “exclusionary” habits that fostered a “whites-only enclave.”… (There were racist posts by whites and blacks on social media.) https://nypost.com/2025/07/06/us-news/former-houston-mayoral-appointee-rages-at-flooded-texas-girls-camp-for-being-white-only/?s=02 Leftists, including media elements, have inculcated hate, resentment, and envy into Americans for decades to procure their support and vote as messianic remedies. The usual suspects have tried to conceal this ugliness, but social media has exposed this despicable dynamic. . The American Dream, Rewritten in Marxist Ink Zohran Mamdani reportedly owes at least $200,000 from his college years. He studied African Studies and graduated without a job, but now he’s winning elections as a socialist candidate in New York City. Friedberg connects the financial dots, but the ideological picture remains invisible… Universities didn’t accidentally produce socialists while teaching legitimate scholarship. They built ideological assembly lines disguised as academic departments. This subversion began many years ago, long before university education became largely unaffordable. This was a time when students were grounded in math, science, English, history, civics, and geography. These were real disciplines — tools for building knowledge, not dismantling it, in the pursuance of truth… Today, many professors are former activists, granted tenure and power not for their ideas, but for their politics. The hiring process doesn’t reward intellectual rigor as much as it rewards ideological loyalty… Six-figure loans for degrees create the perfect breeding ground for resentment. When broke graduates need someone to blame, they remember the answer proffered by the professors: the system failed them. The result is political militancy… https://courage.media/2025/07/06/the-american-dream-rewritten-in-marxist-ink/ @CGasparino: Mamdani’s economic policies are so dumb they could only be taken seriously in a political party that argues @JoeBiden is sentient, @KamalaHarris is a policy wonk, @Tim_Walz acts normal and @GavinNewsom is doing a great job in California @charliebilello: In 2009, Republicans held just 26 of the 100 lowest-income House districts. By 2023, that number had more than doubled to 56. Meanwhile, Democrats solidified their position among the wealthiest districts, representing 69 of the 100 highest-income seats. https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1942323090576310439 New Jersey Coast Guard swimmer rescues nearly 200 people in deadly Texas flash floods Secretary Kristi Noem praises Petty Officer Scott Ruskan’s ‘selfless courage’ during his first rescue mission… https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-jersey-coast-guard-swimmer-rescues-nearly-200-people-deadly-texas-flash-floods-killed-68 Pulitzer Follies: Trump lawsuit exposes uncomfortable truths about journalism’s highest award New intel community report on Putin’s intentions also undercuts factual basis of one of the award-winning submissions by The Washington Post… Despite Durham’s findings and the newly released FBI and intelligence documents, the Pulitzer Prize Board has stood by the Times’ and Post’s reporting and its decision to honor them as examples of journalistic excellence… After sending a letter complaining about the awards, and after the board’s refusal to withdraw the awards, Trump sued over that statement in Florida state court, alleging that it defamed him by portraying the reporting as accurate… https://justthenews.com/accountability/media/monpulitzer-follies-trump-lawsuit-exposes-uncomfortable-truths-about @joeroganhq: Joe Rogan on drag queens reading to children: “I don’t think you should be reading stories to little kids. Just seem bizarre. For what reason? Inclusiveness? That’s bulls***. What are the odds that someone who is a man who likes to dress in drag has other problems?” https://t.co/ZS00feJVC7 NYT: What Happens When Most of the Adults in Boys’ Lives Are Women Efforts since the 1990s to provide female role models have had great success… At the same time, boys have many fewer male role models in their daily lives… (The left’s war on men is also a factor) At a crucial time in their lives, boys are increasingly cared for by women, especially the many boys whose fathers aren’t a regular presence. This lack of male role models, say researchers, parents, young men and those who work with them, is contributing to their struggles in school and employment — and the overall feeling that they’re adrift… research suggests that it’s the adults whom children personally know — and who share their gender or race — who have the biggest effect… Black boys do better in neighborhoods where there are more fathers around, even if not their own… https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/upshot/boys-men-mentors.html @charliekirk11: While people are distracted by the holidays and the Big Beautiful Bill, there is another serious push for immigration amnesty in Washington… We’ve seen this EXACT same script run before. Literally, the same one. The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, better known as the “Reagan Amnesty,” gave a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who worked as farm laborers. The 1986 bill, we were told, was a deal: We’d give amnesty to some illegal immigrants already in America, but in return we would get real border security for the future. You already know how that turned out: We got all the amnesty, but none of the security. In fact, we got far more amnesty than expected. The original proposal for the 1986 bill was to create a large pool of legal, seasonal guest workers who could come to America for the agricultural season, then return home… Well, in the end, it wasn’t a few hundred thousand people who got amnesty. It was 3 million people… Those 3 million amnesties in turn led to millions of additional people coming into the U.S. via family reunification and chain migration… Now, they think they can pull off the same scam again. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1942257662282117514 Years ago, Ann Coulter retorted in response to the need for illegal immigrant farm workers: ‘I’d rather pay $6 for a tomato than to pay for the healthcare, education, housing, and food for illegals.’ Think about the insanity and unfairness of this: Via Obamacare, Dems force Americans to buy healthcare policies or get fined – and then give free healthcare to illegal immigrants! @EricLDaugh: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis calls on Elon Musk to put his resources toward a BALANCED BUDGET and TERM LIMITS FOR CONGRESS amendment, says that would be FAR more successful than a new political party… https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1942283755152105858 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
TOTAL INSANITY!!
Obama Judge Blocks Defunding Of Planned Parenthood In Trump’s ‘Big Bill’
Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025 – 10:40 AM
Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,
It’s almost impossible to overstate the sheer audacity of what’s just happened in Massachusetts. In a move that defies both logic and the very foundation of our constitutional order, an Obama-appointed judge has swooped in to protect Planned Parenthood from the will of the American people as expressed through their elected representatives.
Judge Indira Talwani, sitting on the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts, decided that Congress—yes, Congress—doesn’t actually get to decide how taxpayer money is spent, at least not when it comes to the Left’s sacred cow.
Let’s be clear: This wasn’t a rogue executive order or some bureaucratic sleight of hand. Congress passed a law. The people’s representatives, accountable to voters, made a decision to defund Planned Parenthood as part of the One Big, Beautiful Bill. That’s how our system is supposed to work. If you don’t like it, you organize, you vote, you persuade your fellow citizens and change the law. That’s democracy. But apparently, that’s not good enough for the activist bench.
Instead, Judge Talwani issued a temporary restraining order, telling the executive branch not to enforce the law. Not because the law was found unconstitutional or even legally questionable—no, the judge didn’t bother to offer any real legal reasoning at all.
The ruling simply halted the will of Congress in its tracks, leaving Americans and even seasoned legal professionals scratching their heads. How does a judge order the executive branch to ignore a duly-enacted statute without first declaring that statute invalid? On what grounds?
This isn’t just a technicality. It’s a direct assault on the separation of powers and the legitimacy of our system. If judges can simply override Congress whenever they don’t like the outcome, what’s the point of elections? Why bother sending representatives to Washington if their decisions can be nullified on a whim by an unelected judge with a political axe to grind?
Even those who despise Donald Trump and support abortion rights should be outraged. Every time a judge pulls a stunt like this, it chips away at the credibility of the courts and the very idea of self-government. If the courts can simply invent new rights for their political allies while ignoring the plain text of the law, we’re not living in a constitutional republic anymore—we’re living under the rule of lawyers.
“These radical leftwing Democrat rogue judges will not stop as they burn through the Constitution and defy the Supreme Court,” Mark Levin said, reacting to the news on X. “This Obama fraud has blocked the defunding of Planned Parenthood in the budget bill just passed by Congress and signed by the President. Under what authority does this judge, whose very job was created by Congress and whose jurisdiction was granted by Congress, have the power to do this? NONE!”
The judiciary was never meant to be a tool of the Left, weaponized to override the will of the people. If courts can no longer be trusted to uphold the Constitution over ideology, then it’s time to consider serious consequences—up to and including impeachment. The American people deserve better, and the stakes are too high to let this stand.
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
SORRY FOR BEING LATE, I FELL ASLEEP AT 3 PM PRIOR TO ME GETTING THE COMEX DATA
H
harveyorganblog.com 
