190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 808
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 20
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 209
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 144 428
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2 18
709 C BARCLAYS 265
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 3
905 C ADM 11
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 954 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 95,400 OZ or 4.437 TONNES
total notices so far: 8874 contracts for 887,400 OR 27.601 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 270 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.35 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 8,499 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 42.495 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 27.295 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 44.105 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 56.681 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 2394 CONTRACTS OI TO 173,668 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 615 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 615 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 220 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2394 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 615 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1779 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.14 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.383 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.14 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.65 PTS OR 0.42%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 315.48 PTS OR 1.30%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 218.40 PTS OR 0.55% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.68%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1736 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1758/ Oil DOWN TO 66.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1736 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1758 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7813 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 453,590 OI WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.90 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2000 ). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //MONDAY TRADING.
THE CME ANNOUNCED MONDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES.
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 0
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9813 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE IN JANUARY THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A MUCH HIGHER 22,678 T.A.S CONTRACTS THAN MONDAY;’S ISSUANCE. I THOUGHT THAT THE CASINO HAD THROWN IN THE TOWEL WITH MONDAY’S MUCH SMALLER 10,800 T.A.S. ISSUANCE. BUT I WAS WRONG: THE CROOKS DID NOT ABANDON THEIR USUAL AND CUSTOMER 5 MEGA ISSUANCES WITH TODAY’S NO 5 HIGH 22,678 NUMBER. THEY DESPERATELY NEED TO CONTAIN GOLD FROM EXPLODING IN PRICE.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. HOWEVER JULY IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S MAMMOTH QUEUE JUMP OF 1.800 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 28.637 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 28.637 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 10+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2000 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 2000 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2000 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE BUT MUCH LARGER 22,678 AND THAT COMPLETES OUR 5 MEGA MEGA T.A.S ISSUANCES. THE CROOKS USE THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCE TO TAME THE PRICE OF GOLD.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE MONDAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING MONDAY WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE!
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S HUGE 1.800 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 28.637 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 54 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $0.90/ /) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE AN STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////MONDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE MEGA MEGA T.A.S. ISSUANCES, TUESDAY MORNING , IN ORDER TO COMMENCE CONTINUAL RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS. SO FAR THIS WEEK, THIS EXERCISE HAS BEEN A TOTAL FAILURE…
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; ZERO SO FAR
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ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 30.52 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MAMMOTH QUEUE JUMP OF 57,900 OZ OR 1.800 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.637 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.90
WE HAD 122 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9813 CONTRACTS OR 981,300 0Z (30.52 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 254,763 contracts FAIR
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
JULY CONTRACT MONTH
JULY 15/2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 954 notice(s) 95,400 OZ 4.437 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 333 contracts 33,300 OZ 1.0357 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 8874 notices 887,400 oz 27.601 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0 entries
adjustments: 1
dealer to customer Brinks 3858.120 oz
(120 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 1287 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 443 CONTRACTS. ON MONDAY WE HAD 136 NOTICES FILED, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 579 CONTRACTS OR 57900 OZ (1.800 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH A MAMMOTH QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD
AUGUST LOST 12,839 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 241,951 AS AUGUST BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT’S OI IS VERY HIGH AND NOT CONTRACTING ENOUGH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HIGH NUMBER OF TONNES STANDING.
SEPT GAINED 82 CONTRACTS TO 1570
We had 954 contracts filed for today representing 95,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 144 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 954 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 428 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8874 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1287 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (954 x 100 oz per contract) equals 920,700 OZ OR 28.637 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 28.637 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (8874 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (1287 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (954 x 100 oz) which equals 920,700 OZ OR 28.637 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 28.637 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 28.637 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,200,612.131 oz 68.44 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,748,662.049 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,200,299,.198: or 628.314 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,548,362.951 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,996687 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 559.86 tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
THE JULY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
JULY 15
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entry 2 ENTRIES i) Out of DELAWARE: 2010.290 OZ 2) out of Loomis: 645,058.060 oz total withdrawal: 645,074.3450 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex: 638,629.010 oz total deposit 638,629.010 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into CNT 18,018.970 oz ii) Into Stonex 2894.000 oz total deposit 20,913.970 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 270 CONTRACT(S) (1.35 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 322 contracts (1.610 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 8499 Contracts (42.495 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposits into dealer accounts
1 ENTRY
i) Into Stonex: 638,629.010 oz
total deposit 638,629.010 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into CNT 18,018.970 oz
ii) Into Stonex 2894.000 oz
total deposit 20,913.970 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of DELAWARE: 2010.290 OZ
2) out of Loomis: 645,058.060 oz
total withdrawal: 645,074.3450 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 2 customer to dealer
a) Brinks: 392,491.659 oz
b) CNT 337,099.85 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 195.584 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 496.635 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 592 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 360 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 370 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A SMALL QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST GAINED 20 CONTRACTS TO 2592 AS THIS MONTH BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER
SEPTEMBER LOST 4219 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 131,041 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 270 or 1.350 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 88,350 huge//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8499 X5,000 oz = 42.495 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (592) AND the number of notices served upon today (270 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (8499) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(592) minus number of notices served upon today (270)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 44.105 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 44.105 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 195.584 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/496.635 million. 42.33%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 947.64 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 481.175 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG
Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option?
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 02:00 PM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,
Could a gold revaluation be on Trump’s mind? Below, we consider the options facing a debt-sick America.
A Bug Racing for a Windshield
As we’ve been warning for years, the US and USD are a bug rapidly seeking a debt-hard windshield.
The trend and speed of this collision (and debt trap) are becoming increasingly more obvious with each passing day and headline.
In simplest terms, as US debt levels soar moon-bound, trust and interest in its IOUs (and the currency/dollar backing those IOUs) are sinking toward the ocean floor.
The evidence of such otherwise “dramatic” statements is literally everywhere.
Hard Questions
For example, although not at war, the US is running World War 2 debt-to-GDP ratios at the 120% level.
How did this happen? What’s the “emergency” behind this grotesque ratio?
And more importantly, how can Uncle Sam save himself?
Simple Answer
Answering the first question is fairly simple.
We arrived at this appalling turning point because the US has been getting debt drunk for decades.
Ever since Nixon took away the gold chaperone from the USD, politicians have been buying temporary prosperity, debt-based “growth” and duped voters by taking US public debt levels from $248B in 1971 to $37T (and counting) today.
This number alone is staggering.
Trillions Matter
The difference between “billions” and “trillions” is not merely alphabetical, it’s brutal.
1 BILLION seconds ago, for example, places us in 1997. Bit 1 TRILLION seconds ago places us at 30,000 BC.
Let that sink in for a moment.
If this shocks or bothers you, well… you’re not alone.
The World Has Called the USA’s Bluff
The rest of the world is shocked too, which explains why its central banks have been quietly net-dumping USTs and net-stacking physical gold since 2014.
This further explains why freezing the FX reserves of Russia in 2022 only accelerated the distrust of a now weaponized (and once neutral) world reserve currency.
De-Dollarization…
What followed was a well-telegraphed and carefully forewarned trend of de-dollarization from the BRICS+ coalition.
Tier-1 Status…
This trend took off around the very same time that the BIS, the mother of all central banks, officially classified gold as a Tier-1 reserve asset, making an open mockery of its “sister Tier-1 asset,” the UST.
Central Bank Gold Stacking…
Gold stacking by central banks, of course, continued to skyrocket at the same time:
COMEX Panic…
If such signs of US dollar and debt woes/distrust were not obvious enough, the COMEX and LBMA exchanges out of New York and London then began scurrying like headless chickens.
Why?
Because they were trying to find enough physical gold to meet delivery demands to get the gold off of these exchanges, which, since 1974, were once just derivative schemes used to manipulate rather than deliver gold.
But the hidden facts (and implications) were far simpler. Counterparties to this legalized price-fixing scam now wanted their actual gold more than their paper contracts.
Why?
Because they saw physical gold’s growing, inevitable and superior role in a future monetary system moving away from the debt-discredited USD and UST.
Petrodollar Signposts…
To add insult to the USD’s injury, a growing and simultaneous trend away from the petrodollar during the same period was as obvious as it was media-ignored.
But the message was clear: Faith in a USD-driven future was openly in decline.
The Denial Stage?
Defenders of the USD, of course, were quick and right to remind the world that no other nation or currency could beat or replace the mighty Dollar.
After all, it is the world’s reserve currency.
It still holds the majority position in global FX reserves and, let’s be honest, neither China, Russia, nor any other nation has the reputation or bond market to replace the dollar, right?
Right.
Reality Check: Gold’s Future in a Fiat Swamp
But, here’s the kicker.
Nations like China or Russia aren’t trying to replace the USD with their Ruble or Yuan.
They, like the rest of the world, are slowly going to replace the USD with gold.
This doesn’t mean a gold-backed world reserve currency, just a gold-based world settlement system.
China Playing Chess
Take China as an obvious example.
They have no problem de-valuing their fiat currency when measured against gold, an asset they’ve been quietly stacking and misreporting for decades in a chess game of common sense as the USA plays checkers with QE.
Nor does China have much love for USTs…
As I type this, China continues to pair gold to the oil it imports from Russia and Iran (conveniently dubbed “evil” by the weaponized US media).
In just over a decade, China’s gold-to-oil ratio was 8 barrels of oil to one ounce of gold. Today, that same ounce of gold buys China 50 barrels of oil.
Meanwhile, China has no problem seeing its Yuan price of gold rise from 7000/ounce in 2014 to 24,000/ounce today.
In short, the Yuan has collapsed against gold but not against the USD.
But China can live with this for the simple reason that it sees a gold-based new world order, and it has been stacking that gold for years.
Why?
Because the BIS, the IMF, and, of course, the BRICS+ nations see a world in which gold is superior to the debt-discredited USD as a strategic reserve asset.
Gold: Far More than an “Allocation”
Gold is no longer an allocation, hedge or subject of debate—it is the future of global trade and currency settlements. Period.
My colleague, Egon von Greyerz, saw this decades ago.
Of even date, for example, gold is now 20 % of global FX reserves. The USD percentage is falling dramatically to a 46% position, and the Euro holds a 16% slot.
But if central backs and BRICS+ nations continue to stack gold at current levels, gold may not be an official “world reserve currency” in substance or title, but it will be the new leading FX reserve asset in both title and power.
In sum, each of the foregoing themes, of which we have detailed and warned in numerous prior articles, explains the debt “emergency” facing the USD.
The Real Question: What Can the USA Do Now?
But what about the corollary question? That is: What options do the US have left to solve its debt (and hence currency) crisis?
This, too, has been on our minds for years.
More Fantasy Money?
Ultimately, there are no easy solutions or good scenarios left.
The MMT fantasy, for example, of solving a debt crisis with more debt that is paid for with mouse-clicked money has been tried in earnest since the QE guns took the Fed from a pre-08 balance sheet of $800B to a 2022 high of nearly $9T.
As reminded above, that difference between a Billion and Trillion is just plain madness.
The US, faced with solving its debt crisis (and bond market) at the expense of its paper dollar, is running out of time, options and global patience.
So, again—what can the US do today?
More War?
For Hemingway, at least, the most obvious next step is further currency debasement and war, which the past, current and even future headlines seem to confirm, from the Middle East to Eastern Europe:
But with distrust in US politics and foreign policies rising in alternative media platforms highlighting left and right scandals on everything from Russia-Gate laptops to Epstein cover-ups and AIPAC-guided uh-ohs, trust in the left and right stirrups of the DC saddle is tanking at a rapid rate.
Re-sets, DOGE Cuts & Tariff Walls?
Meanwhile, the IMF has been telegraphing a great reset since COVID, and the current Trump administration has been trying to use DOGE cuts and tariff wars to bring debt and spending levels down.
But regardless of one’s political bias, let’s be mathematical: None of these policies is enough, and none of them, as of today, are even working – as the Elon/Trump social media war intensifies in a backdrop of rising rather than falling deficit levels.
More Financial Repression?
I also expect, and have warned of, more financial repression and capital controls around the corner.
But again, not much of a solution given current and future debt levels, debased dollars (worst DXY Q3 in 40 years) and a middle class already on its knees.
The Red Button Option: Gold Revaluation?
But DC has another option, which even the Fed’s recent May 2025 Manual openly hints toward.
I call it the “red-button option” of a radical gold revaluation to effectively use a precious metal (rather than a Fed mouse-click) to achieve QE-like monetization without having to issue more unloved USTs.
One can read the Fed’s lengthy May report on their own, but the Fed-speak boils down to this:
The Fed can add gold certificates to its balance sheet, which can then become assets of the Treasury Department’s TGA account to pay down a sliver of its $37-TRILLION-dollar public debt.
But the trillion-dollar question remains: How will these $42.00 gold certificates be re-valued?
Doing the Math
In a February Forbes article, for example, there was talk of marking these certificates to market.
If that were the case, the 8131 tons of US gold (roughly 260 million ounces) at the current spot price would give Uncle Sam about $850B in instant new money to pay off some debts.
This is nice, but hardly a solution to getting the aforementioned 120% debt-to-GDP figure down to pre-08 levels at a ratio compelling enough to restore trust in—and demand for—Uncle Sam’s unwanted IOUs.
But what if the US government put in a bid for $20,000 gold?
This would create a new price floor for the precious metal while simultaneously placing newly revalued gold certificates ahead of UST’s and mortgage-backed-securities on the Fed’s balance sheet?
Sound crazy?
If you read the May Fed Report, they hint at such a balance sheet “example” but shy away from naming a new price valuation on the gold certificates.
This means we can only guess at what comes next.
Desperate Times, Desperate Measures?
But desperate times require desperate measures, and there is nothing more desperate than the USA (and balance sheet) in its current form.
An emergency gold re-valuation of $20,000, by way of just one example (perhaps lower, perhaps higher?), would create instant trillions in liquidity to address Uncle Sam’s otherwise mathematically unsustainable bar tab.
Such a measure would buy time for US IOUs and votes for a beleaguered White House.
Such considerations, once thought extreme, must now be considered with desperate seriousness in a backdrop of only desperate options.
Nixon made a radical change in 1971. Can a red-button gold revaluation in 2025 or 2026 be equally ignored?
Let’s wait and see.
Be Careful of What You Wish For
And regardless of whether the inflationary red button is pushed or not, gold wins either way, as the dollar’s purchasing power in such a debt landscape has no absolute direction left to it other than downward.
Gold, as the ultimate, most stable, stacked and historically most trusted anti-fiat asset, has no direction left than upward.
Let’s also not forget that if gold is so re-valued, then the nation with the most gold will have the most leverage in this new system.
But as I’ve suggested elsewhere, that nation is more likely to be China than the USA. It has a lot more gold than the World Gold Council reports…
If so, like all empires whose average hegemonic age hovers around 250 years, the era of the American empire is coming to an obvious turning point, no matter how you stack it.
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JOHN RUBINO
CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 231
5. COMMODITY REPORT…ORANGE JUICE
Orange Juice Futures Squeeze On Trump’s Brazil Tariff Threat
Monday, Jul 14, 2025 – 11:00 PM
President Trump fired off a flurry of trade warning letters last week to countries including South Korea, Brazil, Europe, Mexico, and Canada. In one letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, Trump announced the potential for a new 50% tariff on imports from Brazil. The move has since sparked fears of supply disruptions and sent orange juice futures in New York soaring to a four-month high.
The most active contract jumped 8.655% to $3.1385 a pound on Monday, the highest since early March. Orange juice futures have been rallying since Trump’s trade warning letter to the South American country last week, stoking fears of renewed supply disruptions. Prices previously surged as high as $5 a pound in late 2024, as U.S. orange juice production fell to decade lows. Prices then crashed earlier this year.
OJ is on track for the largest monthly gain since January 1981.
The threat of disrupted OJ supplies comes as the U.S. has ramped up imports from Brazil in recent years, with Florida production in disarray due to greening disease and hurricanes that have devastated large swaths of groves, according to Craig Elliott, a market analyst at Expana, as cited by Bloomberg. He noted that while the full impact of the proposed tariff remains uncertain, the volume of trade at risk is substantial and could further undermine Brazil’s competitiveness.
Tariffs risk upending Brazil–U.S. ag trade across a wide range of goods (much more than just OJ) — from coffee and red meat to poultry, pork, and more.
END
RARE EARTHS/MP MATERIALS
MP Materials Surges 10%, Apple To Announce $500 Million Partnership, Joining Pentagon As Investors
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 06:55 AM
Apple is reportedly set to join the Pentagon as an investor in MP Materials and announce a $500 million partnership with the company, according to a Fox Business report citing individuals familiar with the matter this morning.
MP shares surged more than 10% on the news in a move that comes after a more than 100% gain over the last several months for the critical U.S. rare Earth mineral company.
The deal includes a commitment from Apple to purchase rare earth magnets produced at MP’s facility in Texas, using domestically sourced materials. As part of the agreement, the two companies are also expected to develop a new recycling facility in Mountain Pass, California, to recover and repurpose rare earth elements from used electronics.
In addition, Apple and MP plan to build a second manufacturing plant in Fort Worth, Texas, further solidifying a U.S.-based supply chain for these critical materials.
Over a month ago, we flagged MP and USA Rare Earth as two companies likely to be major winners from Washington’s rare earth reshoring push—particularly under policies aimed at reducing reliance on China. Since we first mentioned it more than a month ago, the stock is up more than 100%.
We noted at the time that MP’s uniquely central role in the domestic rare earth supply chain positioned it for outperformance, and we pointed out that the stock had an enormous 21% short interest, making it ripe for a squeeze.
Recall that one year ago, in our April 2024 note titled “Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed by Morgan Stanley,” we identified MP Materials as “one company that stands to benefit” from the restoration of America’s rare earth supply chain.
Further, our most recent report for subscribers “The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit: All You Need To Know About The “Ex-China Supply Chain“ detailed why MP stood to substantially outperform in the coming months and years as the critical rare earth supply chain was shifted domestically to exclude China, and to benefit domestic miners and producers such as MP.
Our conviction was promptly validated days ago when the U.S. government—via the State Department and the Pentagon—took a 15% stake in MP, an exceedingly rare move that made the U.S. the company’s largest shareholder.
The investment marked a “transformational” public-private partnership by the Trump admin, aimed at building a domestic rare earth element supply chain. As part of the deal, the Pentagon will receive convertible preferred shares and warrants equal to a 15% stake—surpassing stakes held by CEO James Litinsky and BlackRock. The shares convert at $30.03 each and carry no cash dividend.
MP stock surged over 50% on the news, becoming the top performer in the mining sector this year and more than covering the cost of our premium subscription for readers who acted quickly.
That was great news. But it was even better news that among the biggest shorts were Goldman’s hedge fund clients who, for months, had plotted and schemed how to unobtrusively short the name during the bank’s various idea dinner events.
Here is an excerpt from the latest note by Goldman energy and natural resources specialist Adam Wijaya out days ago:
Rare Earths… how high… biggest move in the space yesterday came from Rare Earths complex… led by MP +51%… have hosted several Metals idea dinners over the last few weeks and this name has been a consensus short… pain yesterday was real…
Now, that pain is very likely going to continue today. Thanks, “Tim Apple”.
END
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.65 PTS OR 0.42%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 315.48 PTS OR 1.30%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 218.40 PTS OR 0.55% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.68%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1736 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1758/ Oil DOWN TO 66.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN TRADING AT 7.1736 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1758 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1736 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1758 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.65 PTS OR 0.42%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 315.58 PTS OR 1.30%
2. Nikkei closed UP 218.40 PTS OR 0.55%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.65/ EURO RISES TO 1.1659 UP 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.577//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.66…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6940/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.578 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.304%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.401
3j Gold at $3364.25 Silver at: 38.33 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 19 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 77.91
3m oil (WTI) into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.66// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.577% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7956 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9300 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.418 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.957 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.898 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.22
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5740 DOWN 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.519 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.048 UP 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise, Nvidia Spikes After Trump Greenlights Selling Some Chips To China
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 08:26 AM
US equity futures are higher, led by Tech with the biggest overnight news being that Trump is allowing NVDA to resume its (less advanced) H2O chip sales to China; there had been chatter of a chips-for-rare earths pact to thaw US/China trade relations. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%, with NVDA jumping another +5.3% in pre-market trading, while AMD +3.5%, MRVL +2.85, AVGO +1.4% also gained. The balance of Mag7 is mostly higher; semis are poised to be the best sub-group, and cyclicals are higher with banks with a mild bid into earnings this morning. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens into CPI with JPM noting that some FICC client convos are pointing to a dovish CPI print. The USD is weaker and commodities are declining across all 3 complexes though precious, crude, and sugar remain bid. Today’s focus is the unofficial kick off 25Q2 earnings and Banks have a low bar to cross and CPI is not yet expected to reflect the expected inflation from the trade war.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were higher: Nvidia rose 4.4% as the company planned to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China after securing Washington’s assurances that such shipments would get approved (Meta +0.6%, Apple +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Tesla +0.2%, Microsoft -0.1%).
- Semiconductor firms also gain alongside Nvidia, including AMD (AMD) +5% and Broadcom (AVGO) +1.5%.
- Makers of wound-care products are falling after the US government proposed to change how skin substitutes are paid for.
- MiMedx (MDXG) tumbles 17% while Organogenesis (ORGO) sinks 25%
- BlackRock (BLK) falls 1.9% after the investment firm’s net inflows missed analyst estimates in the second quarter. The company’s reported assets under management beat the average analyst estimate.
- MP Materials (MP) gains 7% after Fox Business reported that Apple is set to announce a $500 million deal with the company for rare earths produced in the US, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Trade Desk (TTD) rallies 14% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the advertising technology company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens on July 18.
- Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) falls about 2% after lowering its full-year guidance for net interest income, after another quarter of tepid growth amid the ongoing trade war.
Outside of earnings, micro focus this am is on NVDA (+5%) with the company planning to resume H20 chip sales to China after assurances from Washington that shipments will be approved. After the White House banned exports in April, it’s a surprise reversal that may add billions to Nvidia’s revenue this year. The move may help spur easing tensions between US-China trade negotiations/furthers the “TACO” trade. TTD (+15%) set to replace ANSS in S&P 500.
For Nvidia, the approval of export licenses for the H20 chip not only boosts its earnings prospects but also bodes well for progress in trade talks between the White House and key partners. With stocks trading near record highs, investors will also gain a clearer read on corporate health as major banks mark the unofficial start of earnings season.
“The US policy reversal on selling AI chips to China clearly constitutes good news for the industry,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de L’Echiquier. “Other than that, the upward trend is still being fueled by investors riding the TACO trade — there are threats but they have yet to materialize.”
CPI is the big macro event for today: economist estimates for m/m change range from 0.1% to 0.4%, with the median 0.3%. June report is first of three to be released before Fed’s September meeting, for which traders have priced in 15bp of easing (see our CPI preview here). Goldman warns to watch for: 1) weakness in used cars, 2) modest increase in car insurance, 3) modest rebound in airfare, 4) +0.08pp increase on core inflation from tariff pressures. After months of seeing little inflation, CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along higher costs of imported merchandise associated with tariffs. The options market is betting the S&P 500 will swing 0.6% in either direction after the release.
It’s still too early to gauge the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff agenda on inflation, said Arend Kapteyn, UBS Group AG’s global head of economic and strategy research. He noted that July’s data, set to be released next month, would likely provide the earliest indication of any clear effect. The lag is helping to underpin the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see approach to cutting interest rates, with swaps pricing in less than two quarter-points of monetary easing this year.
“We’re about to go into a five- to six-month period of accelerating inflation,” Kapteyn told Bloomberg TV. “It’s a trade-off between when does the labor market starts to ease, starts to crack — and we’re already seeing some signs of that — versus how quickly is the inflation data increasing.”
The latgest Fund Managers Survey by Bank of America showed that fund managers are rushing back into risky assets at a record pace on optimism over economic growth and strong corporate profits. The share of investors taking a higher-than-normal risk level in their portfolios registered the biggest increase over a three-month span going back to 2001, the poll showed. It also pointed to strong increases in allocations to US and European stocks, as well as tech shares.
“We are still far from levels where we would advocate a short, but given valuation and positioning, it makes sense to take some chips off the table,” he said.
European stocks advance with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. Technology, media and auto shares are leading gains as Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China. Among individual stocks, B&M sinks to a record low following a weak first quarter. Here are the biggest European movers:
- European semiconductor stocks are gaining ground on Tuesday as Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China.
- Experian shares advance as much as 5.2%, touching a new record high, after the UK credit services firm reported first-quarter organic revenue growth that beat estimates.
- Orsted climbs as much as 6.4% after Morgan Stanley upgrades the Danish offshore wind developer to overweight from equal-weight, saying in note that an improving risk/reward makes it “worth a fresh look.”
- Accelleron shares jump as much as 13% to a record high after the Swiss engine parts maker raised its guidance.
- Trustpilot Group shares rise 12% to the highest since March after the British holding company’s preliminary first-half revenue beat the average analyst estimate.
- TomTom shares rise as much as 11% on Tuesday after the GPS-maker narrowed its revenue forecast for the full year by lifting the bottom rung of the range.
- Ericsson shares fall as much as 4.4% after the telecom equipment maker said sales growth in 3Q is expected to be below average seasonality over the past three years.
- B&M shares plunge as much as 14%, hitting their lowest level on record, after posting weaker topline growth than anticipated in the first quarter despite weak comparatives and favorable weather.
- Barratt Redrow shares plummet as much as 13%, after the property developer said it built fewer houses than hoped in FY25 and posted disappointing guidance for FY26.
- Solvay falls as much as 4.2% as JPMorgan says it “joins the profit warning party,” with the Belgian firm becoming the latest in the European chemicals space to cut its guidance.
- AFRY slumps as much as 9.2% after its second-quarter results, the Swedish engineering consultancy’s biggest decline since its previous quarterly statement in late April.
- Azoty shares drop 3.1% to the lowest since June 24 after Orlen indicated it’s not interested in buying the Polish chemicals producer’s polymers project.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced as Nvidia’s plan to resume some chip sales to China stoked optimism over geopolitics. Chinese shares were mixed as the latest economic data raised concerns over pressure on domestic consumption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7% after Nvidia said it plans to restart sales of its H20 AI accelerator to China. Alibaba, Tencent and TSMC were the biggest boosts to the gauge. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea advanced. Mainland Chinese shares fluctuated after macro numbers showed an uneven recovery. While economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter thanks to strong exports to markets outside the US, consumer demand at home remained weak. That’s bound to keep investors cautious after a recent equity rally. Elsewhere, traders are positioning for the weekend upper house election in Japan. Sentiment is cautious, as a surge in bond yields underscored mounting worries about the nation’s fiscal situation. Markets are watching the JGB yield breakout ahead of upper house elections & potential pressure on US rates.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% ahead of US inflation data that is forecast to show an acceleration in CPI for June. The euro and pound both add 0.2%.
In rates, Treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.41% ahead of June CPI data, supported by bigger gains in European bond markets, where curves are similarly flatter. European government bonds rise with little reaction seen in bunds to stronger-than-expected German ZEW data and a beat for euro-area industrial production. Short-dated US government bond yields rose after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it would be confusing for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to remain at the central bank after his term ends, adding that a “formal process” has already begun to identify a potential successor.
In commodities, oil prices are little changed, paring earlier losses with WTI near $67 a barrel. Spot gold climbs $18 to around $3,362/oz. Bitcoin retreats 3% to near $117,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes July Empire manufacturing and June CPI (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:15am), Barr (12:45pm), Barkin (1pm), Collins (2:45pm) and Logan (7:45pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini little changed
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.1%, CAC 40 little changed
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.41%
- VIX -0.4 points at 16.8
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1200.91
- euro +0.2% at $1.1682
- WTI crude little changed at $67.03/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Fed Chair Powell responded to Senate Banking Chair Scott and Senator Warren regarding building renovations in which he stated the inspector general had full access to project information and receives monthly reports, while he has asked the board’s inspector general to take a fresh look at the project, according to Politico and Reuters
- Stocks advanced after Nvidia Corp. secured US assurances to resume sales of some artificial intelligence chips to China, lifting sentiment on a busy day that also features inflation data and big bank earnings.
- Gold advanced, recovering from Monday’s modest drop, as investors digested mixed messages from the US regarding the progress of trade negotiations.
- Japan’s long-term government debt yield touched the highest level since 2008, as a raft of election tax-cut pledges puts investors on edge and risks higher costs all around in the country.
- Liquidity in sovereign bond markets is falling and term premium is rising. With little sign of budgetary restraint almost anywhere, a fiscal crisis in a developed bond market is not inconceivable.
- Euro hedging costs are subdued ahead of key US inflation data, as summer trading conditions and a shift in market focus toward labor metrics dampen demand for short-dated gamma.
- Stocks traders appear to be looking past the possibility of a stronger-than-expected inflation reading on Tuesday, putting them in a vulnerable position if President Donald Trump’s trade war leaves its mark on US consumer prices.
- US President Donald Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Russia would risk complicating relations with two nations crucial to his economic and strategic goals: China and India.
- Kevin Warsh, a top contender to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, is finally ready to cut interest rates. As a governor at the US central bank from 2006 to 2011, Warsh called for higher rates even in the depths of the financial crisis, warning often of impending inflation. That’s a concern he’s reiterated as recently as last year. But this year, Warsh has become an enthusiastic supporter of lower borrowing costs.
Trade/Tariffs
- US Department of Commerce announced it is withdrawing from and terminating the 2019 agreement suspending anti-dumping duty investigation on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, while it is issuing an anti-dumping duty order, resulting in duties of 17.09% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico.
- Mexico’s Economy Ministry rejected the US decision on tomato duties which it considered unfair and against the interests of both Mexican producers and US industry, while it will support local tomato producers to seek a deal under which the duty is suspended.
- EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among imports targeted as EU debates how to respond to Trump’s latest trade threats, according to WSJ.
- Japanese PM Ishiba and trade negotiator Akazawa are to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent during his trip to Japan, while the meeting is being considered for July 18th in Tokyo, according to Yomiuri.
- Japan’s Economy Minister and trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan is still arranging the makeup of attendees for the US National Day at Osaka Expo, while he added they will continue dialogue through various channels to seek an agreement with the US on tariffs.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the region indecisive in the aftermath of the latest Chinese GDP and activity data, while participants also awaited CPI data and the start of earnings season stateside. ASX 200 gained with strength in tech and some defensive sectors, while the positive sentiment was also facilitated by an increase in Consumer Confidence and as Australian PM Albanese met with Chinese President Xi. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following recent currency weakness and rising JGB yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged following the somewhat mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi met with Australian PM Albanese and said it is most important to seek common ground while sharing differences and that China is ready to work with the Australian side to push bilateral ties further and make great progress. Furthermore, Australian PM Albanese said in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that they welcome progress on cooperation on free trade and value their relationship with China, while he added they will continue to approach the relationship in a calm and consistent manner guided by their national interest.
- China’s stats bureau spokesperson reiterated that the economic foundation needs to be consolidated and stated that overall economic performance in H1 was stable with steady progress, although structural contradictions within the economy have not been fundamentally alleviated. The stats bureau official stated that domestic demand as a contribution to economic growth has been a driving force for GDP but noted that they need to improve investment structure and environment, while the real estate market is heading towards stabilisation and policy support to boost consumption in H1 should sustain spending in H2. Furthermore, it was stated that China is at a critical moment in improving consumption structure and it will supplement policy support with measures to ensure a stable operation of the economy.
- China held its urban work conference and will vigorously promote the optimisation of urban structure, while it will pay more attention to overall urban planning and make efforts to build innovative cities with vitality, according to Xinhua.
- Japan and the EU will issue a joint statement to strengthen economic alliance with a focus on trade, tech and supply chain coordination, according to Yomiuri.
- China Commerce Ministry announces revisions to export control catalogue. Revises procedures for handling Gallium metal extraction tech. Adds battery cathode material prep tech to control list.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are modestly firmer across the board, paring some of the pressure seen in the prior session but with gains capped ahead of today’s key risk event, US CPI. European sectors hold a positive bias. Tech takes the top spot, with the chip sector boosted after NVIDIA (+5.0% pre-market) said it will resume H20 AI chip shipments to China. Telecoms is pressured by post-earning losses in Ericsson (-2.4%).
Top European News
- BoE is announcing a “package of measures designed to maintain stability in the financial sector while offering new growth opportunities for mid-sized banks and building societies.”.
- Incoming ECB member Radev says any further steps should remain firmly data dependent; I share the view that the threshold for additional rate cuts should remain high”.
- UK Chancellor Reeves says under new reforms, banks will send investment opportunities to savers with cash sitting in low interest accounts for the first time. Govt will allow long term asst funds to be held in stocks and shares ISAs next year
FX
- DXY is giving back some of Monday’s gains in quiet trade as markets await crucial CPI data for June. Core M/M CPI is expected to pick up to 0.3% from 0.1% with the Y/Y rate seen rising to 3.0% from 2.8%. The release will be parsed for any evidence that Trump’s tariff policy is adding to price pressures in the US. DXY briefly made its way onto a 98 handle, matchings Monday’s best at 98.12.
- EUR is firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD as markets await any material breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations. On which, WSJ reports that the EU has drawn up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in the event a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among the imports targeted. Elsewhere, it was reported that the ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump’s latest tariff threat, but is still seen as holding rates at the meeting. German ZEW data showed a better-than-expected improvement for the expectations and current conditions components but failed to have any sway on EUR. Elsewhere, French political risk could be a focus later today with French PM Bayrou to outline a plan to narrow France’s deficit; will likely lead to calls for a vote of no confidence.
- JPY flat vs. the USD, halting a recent run of declines. Yen traders are still trying to assess the likelihood of an imminent US-Japan trade deal. Yen traders will also be mindful of the movements in the back-end of the Japanese curve, which, in part, has been supported by expectations of looser fiscal policy by Japan as a result of this weekend’s election. USD/JPY ventured as high as 147.88 overnight before fading upside.
- GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and flat vs. the EUR. Newsflow surrounding the UK have been quiet at the start of the week given the UK has already secured a trade agreement with the US. However, newsflow is set to pick up with Mansion House text releases from BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves due at 21:00BST today.
- Antipodeans are both towards the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the bounce back in risk sentiment seen today. Both also digested mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts, but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.
- CAD is a touch softer vs. the USD in the run up to Canadian inflation metrics (coincides with the US release). As it stands, the BoC is currently on pause and avoiding forward guidance with the central bank taking a meeting-by-meeting due to economic uncertainty.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1758 (Prev. 7.1491)
Fixed Income
- USTs are flat and in narrow ranges ahead of US CPI. CPI is expected to pick up to 0.3% M/M in June (prev. 0.1%) for both the headline and core. While the Y/Y is seen at 2.7% (prev. 2.4%) and 3.0% (prev. 2.8%) for the headline and core respectively. A series that will be, primarily, scrutinised for any signs of tariff-induced price pressures.
- Bunds are leading peers, firmer by just under 50 ticks at best having peaked at 129.65 thus far. Upside that takes the benchmark to within reach of Friday’s 129.74 peak but leaves it shy of 130.00 and then multiple past peaks above, which continue all the way back to 131.95 from mid-June when the recent downward trend began. Outperformance potentially as the complex takes a breather from recent pressure and as traders digest reports the ECB will discuss a more negative tariff scenario at next week’s meeting. No move in Bunds following the German ZEW figures, which were firmer-than-expected.
- OATs also firmer but to a lesser degree than Bunds. PM Bayrou from 15:00BST will begin presenting details of the 2026 budget. The goal will be cost savings of EUR 40bln by 2026, in order to bring the deficit-to-GDP ratio down to 4.6% vs the 5.4% projected for 2025, in-line with their fiscal commitments to the EU.
- Gilts are firmer, between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The immediate docket is light for the UK as we count down to the Mansion House speeches by BoE’s Bailey and Chancellor Reeves; the latter expected to announce a package amounting to the ‘biggest financial regulation reforms in a decade’. Into this, Gilts are at the upper-end of a 91.86 to 92.06 band. Notching a WTD peak and now eyeing 92.19 from last Thursday before that week’s 92.63 best.
- UK DMO sells GBP 1.0bln in 4.25% 2032 Gilts via tender: b/c 4.42x & avg. yield 4.161%.
- Germany sells EUR 3.899bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 1.90% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.3x, average yield 1.87% and retention 22.02%.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are currently lower in what has been a choppy session thus far; price action overnight was rangebound which continued into European hours where newsflow remained light up until a Trump-Russia related FT article. The report suggested that US President Trump asked Ukraine’s Zelenskiy if Ukraine could hit Moscow if the US provided them with long-range weapons; the Ukrainian President replied with “absolutely…”. This report sparked some modest upside, which then continued for around 30 minutes thereafter, taking Brent Sept’25 to a fresh session peak of USD 69.36/bbl.
- Precious metals are mixed, with slight gains seen in spot Silver/Gold whilst Palladium is a little lower. The yellow-metal currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,341.55-3,365.72/oz range, but with price action fairly muted ahead of US CPI. 3M LME Copper trades towards the mid-point of a narrow USD 9,602.33-9,656.5/t range.
- Base metals hold a negative bias, with incremental losses seen in 3M LME Copper prices as trades digest the latest Chinese GDP and activity metrics.
- Kazakhstan’s PM Bektenov says they try to comply with OPEC+ commitments as much as possible. Not considering options to withdraw from the deal.
- China has lowered gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 130/ton and CNY 124/ton, respectively as of July 16th.
Geopolitics
- US President Trump reportedly asked Ukrainian President Zelensky if Ukraine could hit Moscow in the scenario that the US provided long-ranged weapons, via FT citing sources; call that this conversation occurred within took place on July 4th. To the question from Trump, Zelensky reportedly replied, “Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons.” Trump reportedly signalled support for the idea, as a strategy to force Russia to the negotiating table. US president said to have encouraged Ukrainian leader to “step up deep strikes on Russia”.
- Russian Kremlin says US President Trump’s statement is serious and needs to be analysed Putin will comment on it if he deems it necessary. Decisions taken in Washington and Brussels are seen by Ukraine as a signal to continue the war. Russia is ready for a next round of talks with Ukraine. However, there have been no proposals for the Ukraine side so far.
- EU Foreign Representative Kallas says it is a good sign that the US appears to realise Russia does not want peace with Ukraine, hope the US will move forward with more sanctions against Russia.
- “Hamas member and leader Faraj al-Ghoul was killed in an Israeli raid”, according to Al Arabiya.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jul Empire Manufacturing, est. -9.2, prior -16
- 8:30 am: Jun CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Jun CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.26%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Jun CPI YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%
- 8:30 am: Jun CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.93%, prior 2.8%
- 8:30 am: Jun CPI Index NSA, est. 322.51, prior 321.46
- 8:30 am: Jun CPI Core Index SA, est. 327.82, prior 326.85
Central Banks Speakers
- 9:15 am: Fed’s Bowman Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Financial Inclusion
- 1:00 pm: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech in Baltimore
- 2:45 pm: Fed’s Collins Delivers Closing Keynote at NABelgium Event
- 7:45 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks on the Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to US CPI day and to the start of US earnings season with several banks reporting later on. I’ve just about recovered from a day out yesterday at a Theme Park where I managed to get away with just one baby rollercoaster. Maisie and the twins went on about 20! They are all now tall enough to not need me anymore for ALL the rides. My job here is done! I never have to go on a rollercoaster again. My biggest stress was trying to keep up with a very tense game of cricket between England and India without my wife knowing I wasn’t paying attention to what the family were saying. The CPI print will get my full attention today though as a lot will rest on inflation in the coming months including whether the Fed can cut rates, how the Trump administration’s tariff policy will be received, and most importantly how it impacts long-end bonds with fiscal balance sheets stretched in many countries. See our US economists’ preview here. They expect monthly headline CPI to come in at a 5-month high of +0.34%, with core also at a 5-month high of +0.32%. We seem to be the highest on the street with consensus at +0.27% and +0.25% respectively.
If DB is correct, that would push up the year-on-year numbers, with headline CPI up three-tenths to +2.7%, and core CPI up two-tenths to +3.0%. Consensus is a tenth lower on both. We’ll mostly be focusing on signs of tariff-related inflation in the core good categories. President Trump continued to beat the low inflation drum yesterday though, saying “we have no inflation”, and that “we should be less than 1%” when referring to interest rates.
Ahead of today’s big print, markets have been a bit mixed to start the week as the weekend tariff headlines reverberate, and global long-end bonds continued to edge higher. However US futures are edging up this morning (Nasdaq futures +0.3%) after Nvidia have seemingly been given the green light to resume exporting their H20 chips to China that were suspended in April.
We saw significant headlines on Russia yesterday, as Trump threatened to impose 100% “secondary tariffs” if a ceasefire deal with Ukraine isn’t reached in 50 days. Trump’s announcement was vague on details, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick referring to both “tariffs” and “secondary sanctions”. Reporting later on appeared to confirm that this would include tariffs against buyers of Russian minerals, similar to a proposed sanctions bill in the Senate that is now set to be paused. This could impact the likes of China and India, which account for most of Russia’s oil exports, though there are doubts over how practical such secondary tariffs would be to implement. For now, with any swift definitive sanctions against Russian oil being avoided, oil prices actually saw a decent slump yesterday. Brent crude fell -1.63% to $69.21/bbl, which helped to ease some of the inflationary fears after the weekend tariff announcements. Trump’s comments came during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Rutte, at which he also announced that the US will send additional Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine that will be paid for by Europe.
Trump also made some brief remarks on trade, saying that he is “always open to talk”, including with the EU, even as he insisted the recent US letters to trading partners “are the deals” and “there are no deals to make”. That left plenty of ambiguity as markets continued to digest the 30% tariff threats made to the EU and Mexico over the weekend. According to AFP, the European Commission said it would propose a new list of US goods worth €72bn that could be subject to EU tariffs should talks between Washington and Brussels fail. Our European economists yesterday published a blog on the potential impact of 30% tariffs (see here).
For the most part, markets yesterday brushed off the prospects of fresh trade escalation, with the STOXX 600 (-0.06%) recovering to little changed after opening -0.6% down. The more trade-sensitive German DAX did decline by -0.39%, alongside a -0.27% fall for the CAC 40, but the FSTMIB (+0.27%) advanced and here in the UK the FTSE 100 (+0.64%) hit a fresh all-time high. Mexican equities struggled a bit more though, with the S&P/BMW IPC index falling -0.41%. This came as President Sheinbaum confirmed that Mexico has a tariff plan should an agreement by August 1 fail.
The equity performance was more positive in the US, with the S&P 500 (+0.14%) closing within 0.2% of last week’s record high. The resilience came as Bitcoin (+2.10%) continued to climb past $120,000 and to a new record, helping fintech and payments companies like PayPal (+3.55%), Coinbase (+1.80%) and Visa (+0.74%). Bitcoin is now up nearly +75% since the US election last November. The Magnificent 7 (+0.10%) saw a modest gain yesterday, with Meta up +0.48% after CEO Zuckerberg said it will invest “hundreds of billions” in a push for AI superintelligence.
Ahead of today’s CPI release, fed futures slightly dialled back their expectations for rate cuts this year, with the amount priced by December down -1.8bps on the day to 48bps, its lowest in nearly four weeks. That helped to push Treasury yields higher, with the 2yr yield (+1.4bps) rising to 3.90%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.4bps) rose to 4.43% and 30yr closed +2.8bps to 4.98%, the highest close since May 23. Overnight, Treasury yields are flat as we go to print but 30yr JGB yields are up another +1.9bps ahead of the Upper House elections this weekend and have traded at their highest level since 1999. 10yr JGBs are around a basis point higher and earlier touched the highest level since 2008. So lots bubbling under the surface in Japan.
Meanwhile in Europe, yields also moved higher yesterday amidst growing concern about the fiscal trajectory, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+2.0bps) and BTPs (+2.2bps) all rising. There was also a fresh rise in 30yr yields to multi-year highs, with the 30yr yields in Germany (+2.1bps to 3.24%) and France (+4.5bps to 4.24%) reaching their highest levels since 2011. For France, that followed President Macron’s announcement that the 2026 defence budget would be increased by €3.5bn in 2026, followed by another €3bn in 2027. By contrast, UK gilts outperformed, with the 10yr yield down -2.2bps on the day.
In Asia markets are mixed. Chinese stocks are underperforming, with the Hang Seng (+0.08%) struggling to maintain its initial gains despite Nvidia’s H20 announcement, while the CSI (-0.45%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.98%) are both declining. The Nikkei (+0.12%) is seeing slight gains, and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.54%) is also trading positively. However, South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.11%) is dipping after a good run.
Returning to China, GDP increased by +5.2% in the second quarter, outperforming Bloomberg’s estimates of +5.1%, although this marks a deceleration from the +5.4% growth recorded in the first quarter. Most of the growth bias is export led over domestic, which was backed up by retail sales growth decelerating to 4.8% YoY in June (v/s +5.3% expected), down from a 6.4% YoY increase in May. Industrial output rose by +6.8% YoY though, exceeding market expectations of 5.6%. Fixed asset investment increased by +2.8% in the first half of this year, falling short of market predictions of a +3.6% rise. Simultaneously, the decline in real estate investment intensified, dropping -11.2% in the first half of the year, compared to a -10.9% decrease in the first five months, while investments in infrastructure and manufacturing also showed signs of slowing.
Finally, as I mentioned at the top, “Crypto Week” is happening in Washington D.C., where the House of Representatives are set to vote on the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act. The GENIUS Act’s vote in particular could have serious implications for the rapidly growing stablecoin industry – and for US debt markets – and a vote can be expected as early as end of today.
To the day ahead now, as I mentioned look out for the US CPI release. We’ll also get the US July Empire Manufacturing Index, Germany’s July ZEW Survey, Eurozone May Industrial Production, and Canada’s June CPI. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman, Barr, Collins and Barkin, and BoE Governor Bailey. Earnings include JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup and BNY Mellon
2b European opening report
NVIDIA +5% pre-market as it resumes H20 shipments to China; US CPI and Fed speak ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 06:21 AM
- EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached, including aircraft and booze, according to WSJ.
- European bourses are modestly firmer, US futures also gain with clear outperformance in the NQ boosted by NVIDIA.
- NVIDIA (+5% pre-market) to resume H20 sales to China and announces new, fully compliant GPU for China.
- USD a little lower into US CPI, Antipodeans top the G10 pile given the risk sentiment.
- USTs flat into CPI & Bowman, Bunds lead, OATs await Bayrou & Gilts await Bailey/Reeves.
- Crude lower but off worst levels on reports that Trump asked if Ukraine are able to hit Moscow with US weapons.
- Looking ahead, US & Canadian CPI, OPEC MOMR, Bundesbank Monthly Report, Speakers including Fed’s Bowman, Barr, Barkin & Collins, BoE’s Bailey & UK Chancellor Reeves. Earnings from JPMorgan, Blackrock, Wells Fargo, Citi.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Department of Commerce announced it is withdrawing from and terminating the 2019 agreement suspending anti-dumping duty investigation on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, while it is issuing an anti-dumping duty order, resulting in duties of 17.09% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico.
- Mexico’s Economy Ministry rejected the US decision on tomato duties which it considered unfair and against the interests of both Mexican producers and US industry, while it will support local tomato producers to seek a deal under which the duty is suspended.
- EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among imports targeted as EU debates how to respond to Trump’s latest trade threats, according to WSJ.
- Japanese PM Ishiba and trade negotiator Akazawa are to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent during his trip to Japan, while the meeting is being considered for July 18th in Tokyo, according to Yomiuri.
- Japan’s Economy Minister and trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan is still arranging the makeup of attendees for the US National Day at Osaka Expo, while he added they will continue dialogue through various channels to seek an agreement with the US on tariffs.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are modestly firmer across the board, paring some of the pressure seen in the prior session but with gains capped ahead of today’s key risk event, US CPI.
- European sectors hold a positive bias. Tech takes the top spot, with the chip sector boosted after NVIDIA (+5.0% pre-market) said it will resume H20 AI chip shipments to China. Telecoms is pressured by post-earning losses in Ericsson (-2.4%).
- US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.1%) are firmer today, with clear outperformance in the NQ, given the pre-market strength in NVIDIA shares (mentioned above). The RTY posts incremental upside into US CPI.
- Apple (AAPL) reportedly backs US President Trump’s rare earth minerals push, according to Fox Business Apple and MP to build another factory in Fort Worth, Texas.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump and US policymakers this month, reaffirming Co.’s support for the administration effort to create jobs, while Co. expects licence to resume selling H20 GPU to China. To resume H20 sales to China, announces new, fully compliant GPU for China.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is giving back some of Monday’s gains in quiet trade as markets await crucial CPI data for June. Core M/M CPI is expected to pick up to 0.3% from 0.1% with the Y/Y rate seen rising to 3.0% from 2.8%. The release will be parsed for any evidence that Trump’s tariff policy is adding to price pressures in the US. DXY briefly made its way onto a 98 handle, matchings Monday’s best at 98.12.
- EUR is firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD as markets await any material breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations. On which, WSJ reports that the EU has drawn up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in the event a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among the imports targeted. Elsewhere, it was reported that the ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump’s latest tariff threat, but is still seen as holding rates at the meeting. German ZEW data showed a better-than-expected improvement for the expectations and current conditions components but failed to have any sway on EUR. Elsewhere, French political risk could be a focus later today with French PM Bayrou to outline a plan to narrow France’s deficit; will likely lead to calls for a vote of no confidence.
- JPY flat vs. the USD, halting a recent run of declines. Yen traders are still trying to assess the likelihood of an imminent US-Japan trade deal. Yen traders will also be mindful of the movements in the back-end of the Japanese curve, which, in part, has been supported by expectations of looser fiscal policy by Japan as a result of this weekend’s election. USD/JPY ventured as high as 147.88 overnight before fading upside.
- GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and flat vs. the EUR. Newsflow surrounding the UK have been quiet at the start of the week given the UK has already secured a trade agreement with the US. However, newsflow is set to pick up with Mansion House text releases from BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves due at 21:00BST today.
- Antipodeans are both towards the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the bounce back in risk sentiment seen today. Both also digested mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts, but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.
- CAD is a touch softer vs. the USD in the run up to Canadian inflation metrics (coincides with the US release). As it stands, the BoC is currently on pause and avoiding forward guidance with the central bank taking a meeting-by-meeting due to economic uncertainty.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1758 (Prev. 7.1491)
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are flat and in narrow ranges ahead of US CPI. CPI is expected to pick up to 0.3% M/M in June (prev. 0.1%) for both the headline and core. While the Y/Y is seen at 2.7% (prev. 2.4%) and 3.0% (prev. 2.8%) for the headline and core respectively. A series that will be, primarily, scrutinised for any signs of tariff-induced price pressures.
- Bunds are leading peers, firmer by just under 50 ticks at best having peaked at 129.65 thus far. Upside that takes the benchmark to within reach of Friday’s 129.74 peak but leaves it shy of 130.00 and then multiple past peaks above, which continue all the way back to 131.95 from mid-June when the recent downward trend began. Outperformance potentially as the complex takes a breather from recent pressure and as traders digest reports the ECB will discuss a more negative tariff scenario at next week’s meeting. No move in Bunds following the German ZEW figures, which were firmer-than-expected.
- OATs also firmer but to a lesser degree than Bunds. PM Bayrou from 15:00BST will begin presenting details of the 2026 budget. The goal will be cost savings of EUR 40bln by 2026, in order to bring the deficit-to-GDP ratio down to 4.6% vs the 5.4% projected for 2025, in-line with their fiscal commitments to the EU.
- Gilts are firmer, between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The immediate docket is light for the UK as we count down to the Mansion House speeches by BoE’s Bailey and Chancellor Reeves; the latter expected to announce a package amounting to the ‘biggest financial regulation reforms in a decade’. Into this, Gilts are at the upper-end of a 91.86 to 92.06 band. Notching a WTD peak and now eyeing 92.19 from last Thursday before that week’s 92.63 best.
- UK DMO sells GBP 1.0bln in 4.25% 2032 Gilts via tender: b/c 4.42x & avg. yield 4.161%.
- Germany sells EUR 3.899bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 1.90% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.3x, average yield 1.87% and retention 22.02%.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are currently lower in what has been a choppy session thus far; price action overnight was rangebound which continued into European hours where newsflow remained light up until a Trump-Russia related FT article. The report suggested that US President Trump asked Ukraine’s Zelenskiy if Ukraine could hit Moscow if the US provided them with long-range weapons; the Ukrainian President replied with “absolutely…”. This report sparked some modest upside, which then continued for around 30 minutes thereafter, taking Brent Sept’25 to a fresh session peak of USD 69.36/bbl.
- Precious metals are mixed, with slight gains seen in spot Silver/Gold whilst Palladium is a little lower. The yellow-metal currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,341.55-3,365.72/oz range, but with price action fairly muted ahead of US CPI. 3M LME Copper trades towards the mid-point of a narrow USD 9,602.33-9,656.5/t range.
- Base metals hold a negative bias, with incremental losses seen in 3M LME Copper prices as trades digest the latest Chinese GDP and activity metrics.
- Kazakhstan’s PM Bektenov says they try to comply with OPEC+ commitments as much as possible. Not considering options to withdraw from the deal.
- China has lowered gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 130/ton and CNY 124/ton, respectively as of July 16th.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Jul) 36.1 (Prev. 35.3)
- EU Industrial Production YY (May) 3.7% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.2%); Industrial Production MM (May) 1.7% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -2.4%, Rev. -2.2%)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 52.7 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 47.5); ZEW Current Conditions (Jul) -59.5 vs. Exp. -66.0 (Prev. -72.0)
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jun) 2.7% (Prev. 0.6%); Total Sales YY (Jun) 3.1% (Prev. 1.0%)
- Barclays UK June Consumer Spending -0.1% Y/Y (Prev. +1.0%)
- Spanish HICP Final YY (Jun) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%); MM (Jun) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE is announcing a “package of measures designed to maintain stability in the financial sector while offering new growth opportunities for mid-sized banks and building societies.”.
- Incoming ECB member Radev says any further steps should remain firmly data dependent; I share the view that the threshold for additional rate cuts should remain high”.
- UK Chancellor Reeves says under new reforms, banks will send investment opportunities to savers with cash sitting in low interest accounts for the first time. Govt will allow long term asst funds to be held in stocks and shares ISAs next year
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell responded to Senate Banking Chair Scott and Senator Warren regarding building renovations in which he stated the inspector general had full access to project information and receives monthly reports, while he has asked the board’s inspector general to take a fresh look at the project, according to Politico and Reuters.
GEOPOLITICS
- US President Trump reportedly asked Ukrainian President Zelensky if Ukraine could hit Moscow in the scenario that the US provided long-ranged weapons, via FT citing sources; call that this conversation occurred within took place on July 4th. To the question from Trump, Zelensky reportedly replied, “Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons.” Trump reportedly signalled support for the idea, as a strategy to force Russia to the negotiating table. US president said to have encouraged Ukrainian leader to “step up deep strikes on Russia”.
- Russian Kremlin says US President Trump’s statement is serious and needs to be analysed Putin will comment on it if he deems it necessary. Decisions taken in Washington and Brussels are seen by Ukraine as a signal to continue the war. Russia is ready for a next round of talks with Ukraine. However, there have been no proposals for the Ukraine side so far.
- EU Foreign Representative Kallas says it is a good sign that the US appears to realise Russia does not want peace with Ukraine, hope the US will move forward with more sanctions against Russia.
- “Hamas member and leader Faraj al-Ghoul was killed in an Israeli raid”, according to Al Arabiya.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on the backfoot, giving back some of its recent advances; currently just above USD 117k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the region indecisive in the aftermath of the latest Chinese GDP and activity data, while participants also awaited CPI data and the start of earnings season stateside.
- ASX 200 gained with strength in tech and some defensive sectors, while the positive sentiment was also facilitated by an increase in Consumer Confidence and as Australian PM Albanese met with Chinese President Xi.
- Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following recent currency weakness and rising JGB yields.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged following the somewhat mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi met with Australian PM Albanese and said it is most important to seek common ground while sharing differences and that China is ready to work with the Australian side to push bilateral ties further and make great progress. Furthermore, Australian PM Albanese said in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that they welcome progress on cooperation on free trade and value their relationship with China, while he added they will continue to approach the relationship in a calm and consistent manner guided by their national interest.
- China’s stats bureau spokesperson reiterated that the economic foundation needs to be consolidated and stated that overall economic performance in H1 was stable with steady progress, although structural contradictions within the economy have not been fundamentally alleviated. The stats bureau official stated that domestic demand as a contribution to economic growth has been a driving force for GDP but noted that they need to improve investment structure and environment, while the real estate market is heading towards stabilisation and policy support to boost consumption in H1 should sustain spending in H2. Furthermore, it was stated that China is at a critical moment in improving consumption structure and it will supplement policy support with measures to ensure a stable operation of the economy.
- China held its urban work conference and will vigorously promote the optimisation of urban structure, while it will pay more attention to overall urban planning and make efforts to build innovative cities with vitality, according to Xinhua.
- Japan and the EU will issue a joint statement to strengthen economic alliance with a focus on trade, tech and supply chain coordination, according to Yomiuri.
- China Commerce Ministry announces revisions to export control catalogue. Revises procedures for handling Gallium metal extraction tech. Adds battery cathode material prep tech to control list.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q2) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.2%); YY (Q2) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.4%)
- Chinese Industrial Production YY (Jun) 6.8% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.8%)
- Chinese Retail Sales YY (Jun) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 6.4%)
- Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Jun) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.7%)
- Chinese House Prices MM (Jun) -0.3% (Prev. -0.2%); YY (Jun) -3.2% (Prev. -3.5%)
2c) Asian opening rpeort
Europe primed for a firmer open ahead of Fed speak, US CPI and bank earnings – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 01:12 AM
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the region indecisive in the aftermath of the latest Chinese GDP and activity data.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Monday.
- DXY has given back some of yesterday’s gains, EUR/USD remains on a 1.16 handle, other majors are contained.
- EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached, including aircraft and booze, according to WSJ.
- Crude futures remained subdued after US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy oil from Russia if a Ukraine deal is not struck within 50 days.
- The ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump’s latest tariff threat, according to Reuters.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production, German ZEW, US & Canadian CPI, OPEC MOMR, Bundesbank Monthly Report, Fed’s Bowman, Barr, Barkin & Collins, BoE’s Bailey & UK Chancellor Reeves, Supply from Germany, Earnings from JPMorgan, Blackrock, Wells Fargo, Citi and Ericsson.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed with slight gains on Monday after gradually paring the weakness overnight in response to Trump’s 30% tariff letters to the EU and Mexico. Sectors were mixed as communications and financial stocks outperformed but Energy and Materials lagged, while the underperformance in Energy tracked the move lower in crude prices after US President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Russia, and secondary sanctions on nations that buy Russian oil if a peace deal is not agreed to within 50 days. This allows time for negotiations and averts any imminent action from the US against Russia, which in turn, weighed heavily on the energy complex.
- SPX +0.14% at 6,269, NDX +0.33% at 22,856, DJI +0.20% at 44,460, RUT +0.67% at 2,250.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he will talk to countries on tariffs and is open to trade talks including with Europe, while he added the EU is coming over to discuss trade.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer are set to meet with GOP members of Ways & Means this week to talk about the latest trade negotiations, according to Punchbowl and Politico.
- US Department of Commerce announced it is withdrawing from and terminating the 2019 agreement suspending anti-dumping duty investigation on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, while it is issuing an anti-dumping duty order, resulting in duties of 17.09% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico.
- Mexico’s Economy Ministry rejected the US decision on tomato duties which it considered unfair and against the interests of both Mexican producers and US industry, while it will support local tomato producers to seek a deal under which the duty is suspended.
- EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among imports targeted as EU debates how to respond to Trump’s latest trade threats, according to WSJ.
- Japanese PM Ishiba and trade negotiator Akazawa are to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent during his trip to Japan, while the meeting is being considered for July 18 in Tokyo, according to Yomiuri.
- Japan’s Economy Minister and trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan is still arranging the makeup of attendees for the US National Day at Osaka Expo, while he added they will continue dialogue through various channels to seek an agreement with the US on tariffs.
- India and the US were reported to finalise an interim trade pact with GM crops rejected and tariffs rationalised, according to Times Now.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell responded to Senate Banking Chair Scott and Senator Warren regarding building renovations in which he stated the inspector general had full access to project information and receives monthly reports, while he has asked the board’s inspector general to take a fresh look at the project, according to Politico and Reuters.
- US President Trump reiterated criticisms of high interest rates in the US and said the Fed should lower rates to less than 1%.
- White House economic adviser Hassett is rising in the race for next Fed chair, according to the Washington Post.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the region indecisive in the aftermath of the latest Chinese GDP and activity data, while participants also awaited CPI data and the start of earnings season stateside.
- ASX 200 gained with strength in tech and some defensive sectors, while the positive sentiment was also facilitated by an increase in Consumer Confidence and as Australian PM Albanese met with Chinese President Xi.
- Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following recent currency weakness and rising JGB yields.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged following the somewhat mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.
- US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.4%) were briefly boosted overnight on reports that NVIDIA expects to resume H20 GPU sales to China after receiving assurances from the US government that licences will be granted, although some of the advances were pared with participants now awaiting US CPI data and the large banks to kick-start earnings season.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Monday.
FX
- DXY marginally softened in rangebound trade and gave back some of the prior day’s mild gains which were facilitated by the recent Trump tariff threats although he has since commented that he is open to trade talks including with Europe and that the EU is coming over to discuss trade. Furthermore, Trump reiterated his criticisms of high interest rates in the US and said the Fed should lower rates to less than 1%, while the attention now turns to incoming US CPI data and with several Fed speakers also scheduled later today.
- EUR/USD eked slight gains but with price action contained following yesterday’s choppy performance and with sources noting that the ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump’s latest tariff threat, but is still seen as holding rates at the meeting with policymakers reluctant to act on a threat alone and any ECB rate cut discussion remains pushed back to September.
- GBP/USD languished near the prior day’s lows following the recent underperformance in cyclical currencies and with participants looking ahead to Chancellor Reeves’s Mansion House speech today where she is set to ‘rip up’ red tape in financial services and announce a pensions savings review.
- USD/JPY took a breather from recent advances amid the indecisive sentiment seen in Tokyo trade and in the absence of any Japanese data releases.
- Antipodeans attempted to nurse some losses but were thwarted by the mixed risk appetite and a weaker yuan.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1758 (Prev. 7.1491)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lacked demand following the recent choppy performance ahead of US CPI data.
- Bund futures were rangebound amid incoming supply including a EUR 5bln Schatz issuance later today followed by EUR 2.5bln of Bund issuances on Wednesday.
- 10yr JGB futures extended on their recent declines as Japanese yields edged higher amid increasing fiscal concerns and heading into the Upper House elections at the end of the week with the ruling LDP party’s approval rating at its lowest since 2012.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained subdued and extended beneath the prior day’s lows with pressure seen in the aftermath of US President Trump’s announcement to impose 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy oil from Russia if a Ukraine deal is not struck within 50 days.
- Spot gold attempted to regain composure after recent declines albeit with the upside gradual amid an uneventful dollar heading into the latest CPI data stateside.
- Copper futures saw two-way trade as participants digested the latest tier-1 economic releases from China including GDP and activity data, as well as reports that NVIDIA expects to resume H20 GPU sales to China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin retreated beneath the USD 117k level in a continuation of the pullback from yesterday’s record high north of the USD 122k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi met with Australian PM Albanese and said it is most important to seek common ground while sharing differences and that China is ready to work with the Australian side to push bilateral ties further and make great progress. Furthermore, Australian PM Albanese said in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that they welcome progress on cooperation on free trade and value their relationship with China, while he added they will continue to approach the relationship in a calm and consistent manner guided by their national interest.
- China’s stats bureau spokesperson reiterated that the economic foundation needs to be consolidated and stated that overall economic performance in H1 was stable with steady progress, although structural contradictions within the economy have not been fundamentally alleviated. The stats bureau official stated that domestic demand as a contribution to economic growth has been a driving force for GDP but noted that they need to improve investment structure and environment, while the real estate market is heading towards stabilisation and policy support to boost consumption in H1 should sustain spending in H2. Furthermore, it was stated that China is at a critical moment in improving consumption structure and it will supplement policy support with measures to ensure a stable operation of the economy.
- China held its urban work conference and will vigorously promote the optimisation of urban structure, while it will pay more attention to overall urban planning and make efforts to build innovative cities with vitality, according to Xinhua.
- Japan and the EU will issue a joint statement to strengthen economic alliance with a focus on trade, tech and supply chain coordination, according to Yomiuri.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q2) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.2%)
- Chinese GDP YY (Q2) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.4%)
- Chinese Industrial Production YY (Jun) 6.8% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.8%)
- Chinese Retail Sales YY (Jun) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 6.4%)
- Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Jun) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.7%)
- Chinese House Prices MM (Jun) -0.3% (Prev. -0.2%)
- Chinese House Prices YY (Jun) -3.2% (Prev. -3.5%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he felt they had a deal on Ukraine about four times, while he added that Patriot batteries will be sent within days and will start arriving soon.
- White House official clarified that President Trump means he will impose 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy oil from Russia if a deal is not struck within 50 days.
- US Senate Majority Leader Thune signalled the push for an imminent Russia sanctions vote will wait until President Trump gives the go-ahead and said the bill will be ready “at a minute’s notice”, according to CNN’s Raju.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey stated in a letter to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors that they have seen further economic and geopolitical risks crystallise and global debt vulnerabilities remain high. Bailey added that uncertainty continues to weigh on growth expectations and they need to remain vigilant to the risk of disruptive market moves.
- ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump’s latest tariff threat, according to Reuters citing sources. However, the ECB is still seen as holding rates at the July 24th meeting as policymakers are reluctant to act on a threat alone and any ECB rate cut discussion remains pushed back to September.
- EU proposes a budget shake-up to shift billions of farm and development funds to eastern states, with Brussels to unveil a new way to allocate over EUR 750bln of EU farming and development funds, shifting the common budget to favour newer member states and those bordering Russia, according to FT citing a leaked proposal.
- French PM Bayrou is to outline a plan today to narrow France’s deficit, which could risk triggering another government collapse, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jun) 2.7% (Prev. 0.6%)
- UK BRC Total Sales YY (Jun) 3.1% (Prev. 1.0%)
- Barclays UK June Consumer Spending -0.1% Y/Y (Prev. +1.0%)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
Faulty data from China as usual: China’s GDP is now only 5.2% with their figures thanks to huge subsidies on goods and their tariff frontrunning
(zerohedge)
China Q2 GDP Drops To 5.2% But Beats Expectations Thanks To Subsidies And Tariff Frontrunning
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 06:50 AM
China’s GDP grew 5.2% on the year in the second quarter, just fractionally above expectations (as is usually the case when Beijing reports fake numbers) the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, fueled by frontloaded exports ahead of even more tariffs and a flood of subsidies that supported the manufacturing sector.
The figure beat the median forecast for 5.1% growth but was slower than the 5.4% expansion in the first quarter. Still, it keeps the country on track to meet the government’s growth target of “around 5%” for the full year.
Exports rose 5.8% for the quarter, off slightly the 5.9% growth pace in the first half of 2025, as the trade war with the U.S. fueled front-loading and export diversion to other countries. The U.S. jacked up tariffs on Chinese goods in April to as high as 145%, before temporarily lowering most of them following an agreement about a month later. A decline in U.S.-bound shipments was offset by growth in other regions, such as Southeast Asia – which China uses as a transshipment hub – and Europe, where dumping of Chinese EVs is crushing the local automotive industry.
The economy “withstood pressures and rose to challenges, with overall stable and improving economic performance,” the NBS said in a statement as it goalseeked the random number which has zero bearing to what is going on in the economy. In fact, the one number that does matter, China power output, rose just 0.8% YoY for the Jan-Jun period (to 4537.1b kwh), and is a much more accurate reflection of China’s actual growth.
Wednesday’s GDP figure reveals that “growth in the world’s second-largest economy remains resilient, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s volatile tariff policy on China” according to the Nikkei. After reaching near embargo-level rates, US tariffs on Chinese imports were lowered to 55% following a temporary truce reached in May, prompting a new flood of exports seeking to frontrun the eventual increase of tariffs.
The data also underscores a perennial imbalance in China’s economy that could face further headwinds in the second half of the year: sluggish domestic demand and an excess supply of goods. As noted before, the country remains stuck in its longest streak of deflation in decades, weighing on corporate profits and wage growth. Consumption continued to lag behind other growth drivers, as falling home prices and a weak job market dampen consumer spending.
“The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging,” said Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics. “With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year.”
Elsewhere in the data dump, Industrial output growth jumped to 6.8% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from May’s 5.8%, suggesting manufacturers have been rushing to fulfill orders amid May’s trade truce with Washington.
Growth in retail sales, a proxy for consumption, slowed sharply to 4.8% in June year-on-year, from 6.4% in May. The surveyed urban jobless rate stood at 5% in June, unchanged from May, though unemployment is expected to worsen as a record 12.2 million college graduates hit the labor market this summer.
Beijing has made reviving consumption a central economic objective for the year, though it has so far refrained from offering cash handouts to households. Instead, China focused on expanding the budget and widened the range of subsidized goods to include smartphones and tablets. The central government earmarked 300 billion yuan ($41.8 billion) to fund subsidy program for consumer goods this year. While some cities suspended the program in recent months after funds ran out, the government has pledged to roll out a new round of subsidies this month.
Meanwhile, a prolonged property market slowdown continues to weigh on consumer confidence, as housing accounts for around 70% of Chinese household wealth. New home prices in 70 key cities in June fell 0.3% from May, the biggest monthly drop in eight months, according to data provider Wind Information. Falling asset prices have dampened consumers’ appetite for big-ticket items, intensifying price wars in industries ranging from electric vehicles to food.
Sheng Laiyun, NBS deputy director, acknowledged that existing policies are insufficient to stem falling home sales and prices. “More efforts are needed to stabilize and transform the sector,” Sheng told reporters on Monday.
One major challenge facing Beijing is how to end persistent deflation. In recent weeks, authorities have urged industries, including solar panels and electric vehicles, to refrain from price wars that have pushed many companies into the red, though analysts question how effective such top-down approach will be.
The producer price index, which measures wholesale prices at factory gates, recorded its steepest drop in almost two years in June. The government has recently stepped up its criticism of excessive competition, signaling greater desire to address oversupply issues. But “local officials may balk at the economic cost of implementing them unless they are also accompanied by more substantial demand-side stimulus,” Capital Economics wrote in a report last week.
Trade relations with the U.S. remain uncertain as Beijing is set to renegotiate terms with Washington as the Aug. 12 deadline on the trade war truce approaches. Tensions have also escalated with the European Union, where officials have criticized China’s new export controls on rare-earth minerals. Leaders from the bloc are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts later this month.
Some advisers to Chinese policymakers are urging more proactive measures to absorb the impact of volatile U.S. tariff policy. Huang Yiping, a member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee, said earlier this month that China should consider launching an additional fiscal stimulus of up to 1.5 trillion yuan to offset the tariff shock.
Still, many analysts believe the robust (if completely fake) GDP figures reported so far suggest policymakers are in no rush to unveil large-scale stimulus measures to meet the full-year growth target of around 5%. Or at least the fake numbers give Beijing the buffer zone to ignore the ongoing economic slowdown until it’s too late.
“A major stimulus is unlikely if exports remain steady, because Beijing will do just enough to hit its growth target,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.
“In short, what Beijing will do largely depends on the economic policies and tariff rates set in Washington.”
END
CHINA
China’s 373MPH Maglev Train Debuts, Slashing Travel Time Between Cities
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 05:45 AM
A Chinese-built maglev train, set to become the country’s fastest ground transport vehicle, was publicly unveiled this week at the 17th Modern Railways exhibition in Beijing, according to South China Morning Post.
Developed by China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC), the train can reach speeds of 600km/h (373mph) and is designed to drastically cut travel times and strengthen China’s global lead in high-speed rail.
The train features a sleek, aerodynamic nose to reduce drag, and a futuristic interior with a large digital display.
The train is intended to function as a “point-to-point transport tool” between major cities, complementing existing high-speed rail. At full speed, it could cut the Beijing–Shanghai trip from 5.5 hours to about 2.5.
“This model is equipped with a fully automated driving function … [which] requires integrating a variety of technologies such as 5G communication, AI video capture, acoustic sensing, and the deployment of various types of sensors along the line,” CRRC engineer Shao Nan said.
He also noted the train aims to “fill the speed gap between high-speed rail and aviation within 2,000km,” blending the efficiency of rail with the speed of flight.
The maglev uses superconducting magnets to levitate above the track after reaching 150km/h, eliminating friction and enabling lower noise, no emissions, and reduced maintenance. Before that speed, the train runs on rubber wheels. The project is still undergoing route tests and safety evaluations before commercial launch.
Though China opened its first low-speed maglev line in 2003 with German technology, and domestic versions in Changsha (2016) and Beijing (2017), these earlier systems were limited to 120km/h. The new maglev marks a significant leap forward.
South China Morning Post writes that China’s broader high-speed rail network has rapidly expanded to 48,000km by the end of 2024, the largest in the world, with plans to surpass 50,000km this year.
CRRC’s maglev is just one of several cutting-edge transport projects underway. In 2024, China tested its maglev hyperloop project, aiming to eventually reach 1,000km/h, and researchers developed AI-based suspension systems to counter high-speed vibrations and improve ride comfort.
Despite these advances, experts cited by SCMP caution that the sector still faces steep technical and financial hurdles, including the high cost of building dedicated maglev and hyperloop infrastructure and the need for advanced technologies like superconducting magnets.
CHINA/USA
THE PHONY MICROSOFT “YOU HAVE BEEN HACKED” SCAM!
(ZEROHEDGE)
8 Chinese Nationals On Student Visas Charged In Computer ‘Pop-Up’ Scam Targeting Elders
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Eight Chinese nationals on student visas in the United States have been indicted for their alleged role in a scam targeting elderly Americans through fraudulent computer pop-ups, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Pennsylvania announced on July 11.
The defendants, who came to the United States to attend college, are accused of defrauding more than 50 victims across 19 states out of more than $10 million. They were indicted by a federal grand jury in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, for conspiracy to commit wire fraud.
“These indictments highlight the relentless efforts of Homeland Security Investigations [HSI] to safeguard our elderly population from complex fraud operations,” Edward V. Owens, HSI Philadelphia special agent in charge, said in a statement.
“Schemes like these cause significant emotional and financial harm to elderly victims across the country. HSI, in partnership with the FBI, remains steadfast in our commitment to securing justice for the victims and ensuring that those responsible are held fully accountable.”
The defendants are Yankun Jiang, 24, and Hanlin Yang, 24, both of State College, Pennsylvania; Chenhao Chen, 25, Xiaoqing Tu, 24, and Dongjie Lu, 35, all three of California; Lei Bao, 22, of New York; Kuo Zhang, 31, of New Jersey; and Jiacheng Zhang, 25, of Florida.
According to the second superseding indictment, the defendants are accused of running the computer pop-up scam from August 2023 to February 2024. The pop-ups were disguised as coming from Microsoft, falsely warning victims that their computers had been hacked and displaying a phone number to call for help.
When victims called the number, they were allegedly fed various lies, for example, that their bank accounts were “not secure” and that they would need to withdraw from their savings, according to the court document.
To conceal their crimes, the defendants allegedly instructed the victims not to tell anyone what they had been told, and to tell banks that the large cash withdrawals were for purposes such as “home remodeling,” the court document states.
The defendants or “couriers” who were part of the conspiracy allegedly traveled to the victims’ homes to collect the money while impersonating a “federal agent” or “federal marshal,” according to the court document.
If convicted, each defendant faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and a fine.
Jiacheng Zhang and his lawyer could not be reached for comment.
Chen’s lawyer declined to comment when contacted by The Epoch Times.
The Epoch Times contacted the remaining six defendants’ lawyers for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.
The FBI released tips to help the public protect themselves from tech support and government impersonation scams in January 2024. The agency asks people not to click on unsolicited pop-ups on their computers or contact unknown telephone numbers provided in pop-ups, texts, or emails.
The Federal Trade Commission warns on its website that scammers might disguise pop-up windows as error messages from computers’ operating systems or antivirus software, as well as logos from trusted companies or websites.
“Real security warnings and messages will never ask you to call a phone number,” the Federal Trade Commission states.
In April, the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office in Florida issued a warning regarding a scam targeting locals through fake computer pop-ups disguised as antivirus company McAfee’s security alerts, saying one victim had already lost more than $530,000.
The sheriff’s office asked the public to always use up-to-date security software and to never allow remote access to their computers in response to unexpected pop-ups.
In recent months, there have been other cases involving Chinese nationals in connection with scams.
In April, a federal grand jury in California indicted a Chinese citizen, who was a former resident of San Jose, California, for alleged involvement in a government impersonation scam. According to prosecutors, an elderly victim, who was allegedly tricked into believing that there was a federal warrant for her, lost more than $780,000 to the scam.
In May, a Chinese citizen was accused of impersonating a U.S. marshal in an attempt to con a New York state resident out of $98,000.
4 European affairs
Europe’s moving goalposts/
The European Surprise – Why We Misread The Continent’s Shifts
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Europe’s political landscape continues to defy expectations, leaving analysts and policymakers scrambling to explain outcomes that, in hindsight, seem foreseeable. From the UK’s Brexit vote to Giorgia Meloni’s rise in Italy, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surge in Germany, Dutch farmers’ revolts, and Marine Le Pen’s ascent in France, each development triggers a chorus of shocked “No one saw this coming.” Yet millions of Europeans did.
The persistent surprise may stem from a flawed lens—dominated by English-language media filters, historical overcorrections, and shrinking on-the-ground reporting—that distorts our understanding. As these shifts ripple globally, misreading Europe poses strategic risks we can no longer afford to ignore.
The pattern is unmistakable. Europe has been portrayed as a stable, liberal bastion—centrist coalitions driving climate action and European Union unity, embodying a progressive ideal. Yet reality diverges: The UK exited the EU in 2016, Meloni became Italy’s prime minister in 2022, Germany’s AfD polled second nationally in 2025, Dutch farmers blocked roads over nitrogen policies, and France’s center collapsed in 2024, elevating Le Pen. Each time, English-language coverage reacts with shock, missing signals visible to local populations.
The Media’s Blind Spot
This disconnect begins with a critical media filter. English-language European outlets, such as state-funded France 24, Deutsche Welle, Politico Europe, and center-left publications like Le Monde, cater to an urban, university-educated, globally minded audience. These sources are mostly credible and professional but reflect a narrow slice of society, underrepresenting conservative and rural perspectives.
A key disparity amplifies this bias: While mainstream liberal media regularly publish English editions, conservative and right-wing outlets across Europe—such as Germany’s Junge Freiheit or Italy’s Il Giornale—rarely do. This choice stems from several factors: a lack of perceived demand in English-speaking markets, suspicion of hostile Anglo-American coverage, and a strategic focus on local bases.
As a result, English-speaking audiences relying on European media’s English editions get an incomplete picture, skewed toward liberal narratives and missing the conservative currents driving political shifts.
Europe’s Hidden Currents
Country-specific examples reveal the depth of this gap. In Italy, Meloni’s 2022 victory, often labeled “neo-fascist” because of her party’s post-fascist roots, was misread by English outlets. Yet her platform—lower taxes, stronger borders, and national pride—reflected frustration with unelected technocrats and Brussels’ fiscal rules. She formed a coalition with Matteo Salvini’s League and Forza Italia, securing a parliamentary majority with 44 percent of the vote, appealing to millions disillusioned by years of instability, not extremism. Her government’s three-year record (2022 to 2025) has focused on economic recovery.
In Germany, AfD’s rise to more than 20 percent in state elections and a mayoral win in 2025 reflect discontent with soaring energy prices post-nuclear shutdown and immigration strains. Yet it’s framed as a dangerous anomaly, ignoring its roots in rural and eastern voter bases.
In the Netherlands, the government’s 2019 nitrogen reduction plan, mandating farm buyouts, sparked tractor blockades by farmers facing existential threats to generational livelihoods. The Farmer-Citizen Movement, formed in response, became the largest party in the Dutch Senate by 2023, a democratic revolt misread as a sideshow.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s 2024 dissolution of the National Assembly followed his party’s European election defeat, paving the way for Le Pen’s National Rally. Her movement, drawing working-class and youth voters from disaffected leftist unions, has softened its rhetoric—shifting from anti-immigrant hardline to economic populism—normalizing her appeal amid the center’s collapse.
Postwar Shadows
This blind spot is structural, rooted in postwar Europe’s “firewall” logic. After World War II, institutions like Germany’s Basic Law and France’s laïcité were designed to prevent fascism and nationalism, embedding a cultural consensus against these ideologies. The EU, as a moral project to dissolve rivalries, reinforced this stance.
Over time, this overcorrection stigmatized moderate conservatism—national flags or religious appeals were red flags, dissent from EU norms labeled “anti-democratic.” Repressing these voices buried resentment, fueling unexpected populism. The UK grooming gang scandals illustrate a similar pattern: institutional real fear of fomenting racism delayed action on abuse, worsening the crisis. In Europe, suppressing feedback has similarly driven political surprises.
Anglosphere’s Distance
The Anglosphere’s media compounds this. Decades ago, outlets like The New York Times or CBS maintained lively European bureaus, offering nuance and real understanding of reality on the ground. Budget cuts and shifting priorities have shuttered many, replacing correspondents with wire services and freelancers. Walter Duranty’s downplaying of Joseph Stalin’s Holodomor, despite his Moscow base, shows proximity isn’t a cure-all, but its absence distorts coverage, even by the mere addition of intermediaries.
Today’s reports—relying on embassy briefings, nongovernmental organization releases, the European media’s English language editions, or echo-chamber articles—many times lack critical context. For example, there was the framing of Dutch tractor protests as climate backlash rather than a livelihood crisis. For policymakers and investors, this distance misjudges risks, from policy legitimacy to market stability.
Global Stakes at Risk
The stakes are high. Misreading Europe leads to ill-fated policies, regulatory backlash, and eroding trust in journalism, fueling polarization. Each “shock result” signals analytical failure with global repercussions—markets shift, alliances waver, and migration patterns change. The postwar consensus, while essential, has ossified into dogma, blinding elites to new threats.
A Call for Clarity
To see Europe clearly, we ought to think and act like historians. We stop waiting for “The Truth” to arrive in a statement and start building our own mosaic. This means reading across ideological spectra, using artificial intelligence to translate non-English conservative sources like Junge Freiheit (even if one vehemently disagrees with its editorial line), tracking polling trends, and listening beyond capitals.
This is not about endorsing right-wing or conservative parties over liberal and progressive ideologies; rather, it underscores that navigating with a flawed map—lacking the full true picture—hurts everyone’s performance. Understanding Europe’s diverse political currents, progressive gains and conservative surges alike, reduces the risk of costly surprises.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
END
NATO/MOLDOVA/RUSSIA
Provocative!!
NATO Turning Moldova Into ‘Cannon Fodder’ To Confront Russia: Kremlin
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Monday issued a rare statement accusing the West, under US leadership, of turning Moldova into a military outpost aimed at confronting Russia, akin to what has happened over several years with Ukraine.
The SVR’s provocative statement said Washington wants to use the country as “cannon fodder” in future hostilities, which is allegedly being fast-tracked by Western foreign policy decision-makers.
The statement further alleged that NATO wants to turn tiny Moldova into a “military testing ground” by modernizing its railways to European specifications and constructing major logistics hubs for future Western military deployments. This also includes serious upgrades to airfields, to host military planes, according to Russian state media.
Russian intelligence also accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of surrendering national interests to Western powers, dubbing her administration a “comprador regime” – and that her pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity is being propped up and strengthened by the West.
These charged can’t exactly be dismissed as paranoia or propaganda, given for example that just last year the United Kingdom inked a new defense pact with Moldova, precisely to counter ‘Russian aggression’ – as we previously detailed.
The tiny Eastern European nation bordering Ukraine has experienced the same kind of internal political pro-EU vs. pro-Russia tug of war historically on display in other countries such as Ukraine or Georgia.
The UK foreign ministry described the defense agreement as about “building on extensive cooperation between the two countries and strengthening Moldovan resilience against external threats.”
One thing which has long alarmed the West is the presence of Russian ‘peacekeeping’ troops in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region.
As for Transnistria, although it has diverse ethnic demographics almost equally apportioned between Russians, Moldovans, Romanians and Ukrainians, the Russian demographic slightly ekes out its counterparts with a plurality of 29% of Transnistrians belonging to the group.
The pro-Russian cultural sentiment of the region is exemplified by its flag, which has remained the same as it was when Transnistria was a part of the Soviet Union. That representative Russian demographic, coupled with broader dissatisfaction of the Moldovan government, has fostered support for assimilation into the Russian Federation for quite some time.
END
MALTA, EU/RUSSIA
The Unlikely, Tiny EU State Holding Up Europe’s 18th Package Of Russia Sanctions
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 02:45 AM
The West has come to expect this from Hungary or even Slovakia, but tiny Malta as a key holdout preventing European action against Russia?
European Union (EU) ambassadors have not yet reached an agreement on the bloc’s 18th sanctions package against Moscow, largely due to Malta’s stance on maintaining the current price cap on Russian oil, according to a senior EU official cited in several European reports.
Earlier reports indicated that Greece, Cyprus, and Malta had initially resisted lowering the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.
While Greece and Cyprus did not oppose revisiting the oil price ceiling in a Sunday meeting, Malta remained firm in its position, arguing that its shipping industry, a vitally important sector to its national economy, would be deeply and negatively impacted by any changes.
As of now, Malta is the only country still holding out, with its permanent representative to the EU saying in a statement:
“We were unable to express political support during yesterday’s Committee of Permanent Representatives. However, discussions are ongoing, and Malta is constructively engaged with this goal in mind.”
Russia’s RT has also picked up on Malta’s holdout position, noting that “Malta’s specific concerns have not been detailed, but a large number of ships fly the flag of the island nation.”
It continues, “Its maritime insurance sector has previously expressed unease over measures that could drive shipowners to reflag outside the EU, causing economic harm to the bloc’s shipping registries and related industries.”
The new sanctions package, which was first set before EU members in June, also impacts Russian gas, as it proposes a ban on the future use of the Nord Stream pipeline.
* * *
One European source provides the following overview of the stalled 18th anti-Moscow sanctions proposal by the EU:
Energy sector:
- Ban on all transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and 2: no EU operator will be able to conduct deals through these pipelines.
- Price cap on oil products lowered from $60 to $45 per barrel to make it harder for Russia to generate revenue.
- Expansion of the “shadow fleet”: 77 more tankers that transported oil outside the law have been added to the sanctions list.
- Ban on importing oil products made from Russian oil to prevent sanctions evasion through third countries.
Financial sector:
- Transformation of SWIFT restrictions into a full ban on transactions: this applies to 22 Russian banks and third-country operators that help circumvent sanctions.
- Imposition of sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) along with its subsidiaries.
* * *
Malta has long been accused of emerging as a new hotspot for Russia-linked ship-to-ship oil transfers amid the Ukraine war and resulting US-EU led sanctions…
Meanwhile, Malta’s veto translates to EU leaders probably being forced to move forward with approving the package against Russia without including a revised oil price cap, while negotiations continue over energy supply assurances for Slovakia and Hungary.
END
GERMANY
In Panic Mode, Germany’s CDU Retreats From Far-Left Judge Who Backs AfD Ban, Mandatory Vaccinations, & Late-Term Abortions
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 02:00 AM
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has long been known to sell out every last so-called value the party is supposed to represent, but it appears that backing controversial far-left candidate Frauke Brosius-Gersdorf is now a bridge too far.
The CDU/CSU has now decided that a special session on the election of Brosius-Gersdorf should now be removed from the Bundestag agenda. The reason? Civil war in the CDU/CSU is causing serious chaos in the party over her candidacy.
However, the party is stating that the reason is not her stance on abortion, which she backs until the last moment of pregnancy, but instead allegations of plagiarism.
During an ongoing meeting, sources within parliament revealed that the parliamentary group executive and Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) informed the SPD that plagiarism allegations against the candidate compromised her professional expertise. This was allegedly problematic because her expertise was the primary justification for her election as a constitutional judge, a role that demands individuals be beyond reproach.
However, the real reason might have to do with Merz’s historic answer in the Bundestag less than 48 hours ago. Responding to a question from AfD MP Beatrix von Storch, he said he has no moral qualms about backing a candidate that supports abortion up until a minute before birth.
“Can you reconcile it with your conscience to vote for Mrs. Brosius Gersdorff, for whom the dignity of a human being does not apply if he is not yet born? Mrs. Brosius Gersdorff has said that a child that is 9 months old — 2 minutes before birth — has no human dignity. Can you reconcile it with your conscience to vote for this woman, knowing that presumably this lady will shortly be voting on the abolition of Article 218 (of the criminal code)?” asked von Storch in parliament.
“The scope and extent of Article 1, sentence 1 of our Basic Law, Mrs. von Storch, is something I would like to discuss with you on another occasion. But my very simple answer to your question is: yes,” replied Merz.
His answer was like a stick of dynamite being thrown into his parliamentary group. The CDU has historically been opposed to abortion due to its Christian roots. Not only did the AfD go on the attack following Merz’s answer, but CDU MPs came out against Merz, which has shaken the party’s foundations.
“Friedrich Merz offered me yesterday to discuss Article 1 of the Basic Law with him: “The dignity of man is inviolable.” I gladly accept this offer, Mr. Merz. I will therefore gladly await your proposed date. Deporting rejected asylum seekers and warning against Islamization does not violate human dignity. Frauke Brosius Gersdorff, on the other hand, wants to suspend Article 1 of the Basic Law for an entire category of people, namely all unborn humans. If someone like that becomes a constitutional judge, it threatens the core of the value system of the Basic Law, and you bear the responsibility for that.”
According to former Karlsruhe court judge Peter M. Huber, Brosius-Gersdorf’s election could damage the institution’s reputation.
“Such a polarizing personnel proposal poses a risk to the court’s reputation,” Huber told Focus magazine. “The positions that Ms. Brosius-Gersdorf has raised and are hotly debated do not command majority support, either in society or among constitutional lawyers.”
“Karlsruhe has always stood for balance and reliability – including in the selection of constitutional judges,” he said. Unlike in the United States, judicial appointments in Germany “have never been so personalized, so that the Federal Constitutional Court is generally perceived as a single entity.” He said that the debate around the candidate could radically transform Germany’s views on the courts.
The influential editor of NIUS and the former top editor of Bild newspaper, Juilan Riechelt, predicted on X that Merz’s answer would have historic implications for the CDU.
“Prognosis: This thoughtless, unequivocally revealing answer is a turning point in the history of the CDU. No CDU member should ever answer such a question so decisively with ‘Yes!’ Merz could have talked his way out, he could have said he understood or interpreted the left-wing activist Brosius-Gersdorf differently. But he goes All-In AGAINST the core brand of his party,” he wrote.
As Remix News previously reported, the election of Brosius-Gersdorf represents a serious threat to democracy in Germany, as the activist lawyer has called for a ban on the AfD.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
PALESTINIAN STATE/FRANCE /CANADA UK
it was foolish for Macron to believe that there can exist a two state solution..not when you have belligerent neighbours like Hamas
(JerusalemPost)
France’s Macron withdraws from UN Palestinian state recognition conference
The conference was intended to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip after the Israel-Hamas War concludes, and to prepare for the gradual recognition of a Palestinian state.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron, July 10, 2025.(photo credit: LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS)ByYOAV SHUSTERJULY 15, 2025 16:02
French President Emmanuel Macron is no longer expected to attend the upcoming UN conference on the recognition of a Palestinian state, according to sources on Tuesday.
Macron encountered strong opposition from the British and Canadian governments, who warned that a unilateral French recognition of a Palestinian state could undermine international coordination efforts with Israel and exacerbate divisions, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.
Macron, who had intended to lead the conference along with Saudi Arabia, had reportedly considered announcing France’s official recognition of a Palestinian state, a claim that France has firmly denied.
The conference was originally supposed to take place in New York between June 17-20.
The conference was intended to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip after the Israel-Hamas War concludes, and to prepare for the gradual recognition of a Palestinian state.
However, this was delayed due to the Israel-Iran War.
Additionally, the US applied behind-the-scenes pressure, which led to the postponement of the original conference date, according to sources speaking to Walla.
A new date for the conference was set for July 28, but without Macron’s participation.
Paris politicians aim to lower expectations
Paris’s leading politicians are working to lower expectations with officials clarifying that France is not abandoning the two-state solution, but does not intend to act unilaterally without broad international consensus.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot mentioned this week that “the goal is to outline post-war Gaza and prepare for France’s and other countries’ recognition of a Palestinian state.”
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
ISRAEL VS WEST BANK
They must stop this nonsense. They should all live in peace
(JerusalemPost)
IDF postpones evacuation of Tzur Harel outpost after operation plans leaked – report
Dozens of Palestinian vehicles were set on fire in the village of Burqa, near the Tzur Harel outpost, on Monday night.
A Palestinian man stands next to a burnt car after an attack by Israeli settlers in Kafr Malik, in the West Bank, June 26, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ammar Awad TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 15, 2025 08:53Updated: JULY 15, 2025 08:57
Hilltop youth reportedly prevented security forces from carrying out operational activities on Monday night, including blocking the evacuation of an illegal outpost in the Binyamin area of the West Bank, Army Radio said on Tuesday.
According to reports, IDF and Border Police soldiers prepared to evacuate the Tzur Harel outpost, located near the Givat Assaf junction.
Security sources told Army Radio that this outpost has been a source of clashes recently, and that they received reports that hilltop youth were planning to attack Palestinians in the area, leading to evacuation for security purposes.
Army Radio noted that in such cases, the military does not require prior approval from the political echelon; rather, the Central Command chief has the authority to order the evacuation.
The report said that the planned military operation was leaked hours in advance, allowing the hilltop youth to call for reinforcements, where they gathered to resist the evacuation. According to reports, dozens of Palestinian vehicles were set on fire in the village of Burqa, near the Tzur Harel outpost.
Over the course of Monday night, the IDF held a security assessment and decided that due to the preparation by hilltop youth and desire to limit violent confrontations, the evacuation would be postponed to another time.
Evacuation postponed to limit confrontation, IDF reportedly says
Security forces told Army Radio that the decision to postpone the evacuation was because “it would not be wise to do this through confrontation and force.”
The report also cited the IDF as saying that they would investigate the leak.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
times of Israel
IDF chief said to call Gaza humanitarian city plan ‘unworkable’ at security meeting
Report says Eyal Zamir pushing back on controversial idea, telling PM, Katz that ‘it has more holes than cheese’; Netanyahu said to be ‘determined’ that it go ahead
By ToI StaffToday, 1:08 am
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir (center) at the scene of a terror attack at Gush Etzion Junction in the West Bank, July 10, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
The Israeli military’s Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has serious reservations about the controversial “humanitarian city” plan that Defense Minister Israel Katz has outlined for south Gaza’s Rafah, according to a Monday report in Hebrew media, which cited quotes from a security discussion that took place on Sunday.
According to the report, which was published by Channel 12, Zamir made it clear in the discussion that he strongly opposes the plan, which would see Israel build on the ruins of Rafah in a way that would eventually house all of Gaza’s civilians. The zone would first accommodate some 600,000 Gazans living in the Mawasi area on the coast, and then would contain the enclave’s entire population of more than 2 million.
“It’s an unworkable plan,” he said, according to the outlet.
“It has more holes in it than cheese,” he went on, telling those present at the meeting, which reportedly included Katz, Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, that they “can decide anything, but what is the point?”
“There are countless problems with this plan,” he said, adding that he is “not convinced that it actually corresponds with the goals of the war.”
Zamir reportedly told the meeting that moving forward with the “humanitarian city” idea would make it less likely that Hamas agrees to a deal to free the remaining hostages, and while he said the IDF would carry out the plan if called upon by the political echelon, he strongly recommends against it.
This handout photo shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting with the IDF General Staff Forum on June 30, 2025. At left is IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. At right is Defense Minister Israel Katz (Maayan Toaf/GPO)
According to the report, Netanyahu pushed back against Zamir, saying that he had asked the IDF to present “a realistic plan,” with one source who was present at the meeting telling the outlet that the premier was “determined” that the plan go ahead, telling the military to “to plan another, much leaner, faster, and cheaper alternative by tomorrow.”
According to a report published Sunday by Channel 12, just before the same meeting, the IDF was planning on telling the present ministers that the controversial plan would “take three to five months from the moment we begin construction until the humanitarian city is operational.”
Channel 12 reported that the military brass is worried that proceeding with the humanitarian city could harm hostage and ceasefire talks, which are currently taking place in Qatar.
After Katz announced his plans for the “humanitarian city” last week, it received major pushback from both inside and outside Israel.
Encampments sheltering Palestinians displaced by conflict are pitched near the Sheikh Radwan wastewater collection pond, which is nearing its capacity, in Gaza City on July 14, 2025.. (Bashar TALEB / AFP)
On Monday, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said it is a “crazy idea — even by this government’s standards.”
“Will its residents be allowed to leave? If not, how will they be prevented from leaving? Will there be a fence? A regular fence? An electric fence? How many soldiers will guard it?” Lapid asked, at the opening of his party’s weekly faction meeting.
According to Katz, residents would be screened before entering and would not be allowed to leave, per the plan. International organizations would provide aid while the IDF secures the site from a distance, and residents would be encouraged to “voluntarily emigrate.”
On Sunday, former prime minister Ehud Olmert said the plan would create a “concentration camp.”
International leaders also criticized the proposal. Britain’s minister for the Middle East and North Africa, Hamish Falconer, said he was “appalled” by the idea.
Illustrative. Palestinians receive meals from volunteers in Deir al-Balah, in central Gaza Strip, on July 14, 2025. (Ali Hassan/Flash90)
“Palestinian territory must not be reduced,” Falconer wrote on X. “Civilians must be able to return to their communities.”
The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority also castigated the plan, with its foreign ministry saying: “The humanitarian city has nothing to do with humanity.”
The war between Israel and Hamas broke out on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led terrorists invaded Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251.
The 50 hostages who remain in captivity in Gaza include the bodies of 28 confirmed dead by the IDF, one of whom has been held for over a decade.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said Sunday that more than 58,000 Palestinians had been killed across the Strip since the war’s start. The tolls, which cannot be verified, do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/USA
(ZEROHEDGE)
Trump Wants Gaza Deal ‘Straightened Out’ Within The Next Week
Monday, Jul 14, 2025 – 10:10 PM
President Trump on Sunday said he hopes a ceasefire deal in Gaza can be finalized within this week, in comments made to reporters before boarding a flight to attend yesterday’s FIFA Club World Cup Final.
When asked about the ongoing crisis in Gaza, he responded, “We’re talking, and hopefully we’ll get that straightened out over the next week. Let’s see what happens.”
While there had been anticipation in Israel for a deal announcement during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington DC last week, recent days have seen the typical non-committal, ambiguous statements out of both Washington and Tel Aviv. The war looks to have no solutions, given the stated goals of Israel and the United States.
Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism Sunday, saying he was “hopeful” an agreement could be reached.
But as it stands the Netanyahu government is still insisting on the full disarming of Hamas, while Hamas for its part wants full withdrawal of the Israeli military.
Neither is expected to happen, and at this point it looks to be a fight to the death – with Israeli hostages still in limbo (and many feared dead) – and thousands of Palestinian civilians getting slaughtered each week.
Currently, a plan floated by some Israeli officials for a designated ‘humanitarian city’ inside a sector of Gaza has continued to be met with immense pushback. Critics call it in effect a “concentration camp” – while many within Israel say it is logistically impossible.
The plan was announced by Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz last week:
Israeli affairs analyst, Dan Perry, says the plan to build a “humanitarian city” would involve “by all indications a very long process” to build and maintain, while the country does not have the “funds or the energy or the desire” to do so.
“I think this has to be viewed in the context of the current negotiations where the very reporting of such a plan might be an effort to put pressure on Hamas to show more flexibility,” Perry told Al Jazeera.
“I agree with [opposition leader Yair] Lapid that it is a security, political and logistical nightmare. I would add that it’s ethically inadmissible,” he added.
And so it is unlikely to get off the ground. In the meantime aid delivery continues to also be mired in controversy and scandal, as American military contractors have reportedly fired on hungry Palestinians.
Reports say the IDF troops have shot dead scores of Palestinians seeking the aid, and UN and international rights groups have slammed the unsafe aid station set-ups.
Al Jazeera provides some Monday updates on the situation as follows:
- At least 47 people killed across Gaza today, including Palestinians gathered near aid centre.
- Israeli forces continue bombarding Gaza a day after killing 95 Palestinians across the Strip.
- Criticisms of Israel’s plan to set up an internment camp in Gaza are growing, with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid saying it would amount to a “concentration camp” if Palestinians there are not allowed to leave.
- Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 58,026 people and wounded 138,520, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. An estimated 1,139 people were killed in Israel during the October 7, 2023, attacks, and more than 200 were taken captive.
And below are more regional and global headlines via Newsquawk.
* * *
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Tehran will respond to the return of UN sanctions after snapback mechanism. No date or location for US/Iran nuclear talks. Will not restart US talks unless we are certain they will work.
- Israeli official said talks in Doha are ongoing with Hamas for a ceasefire and hostage deal but noted Hamas is sticking to positions that do not allow mediators to advance an agreement.
- US envoy to the Middle East Witkoff said he is hopeful on Gaza ceasefire negotiations and was said to meet senior Qataris in New Jersey on Sunday.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they are carefully assessing options for talks with the US.
Ukraine
- US President Trump is considering greenlighting new funding for Ukraine to send a message to Russia, according to CBS. It was separately reported that President Trump is to announce an “aggressive” Ukraine weapons plan on Monday to arm Ukraine which is expected to include offensive weapons, according to Axios.
- EU envoys are nearing an agreement on lower Russian oil price cap, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency accused Russia’s FSB of being behind the murder of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv last week and said agents responsible for the murder were killed during an operation to apprehend them.
- IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant reported hearing hundreds of rounds of small arms fire on Saturday night.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Myrne and Mykolaivka in eastern Ukraine.
- North Korean leader Kim reaffirmed unconditional support for Moscow’s actions in the Ukraine war during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, while North Korea and Russia pledged cooperation to safeguard each other’s territorial integrity. Furthermore, Russia expressed firm opposition to any attempt to undermine North Korea’s national security and sovereignty, while it was also stated that Moscow wants to further strengthen the strategic partnership.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky’s Chief of staff says US Special Envoy Kellogg has arrived in Kyiv to discuss security and sanctions against Russia.
- Russian President Putin’s envoy Dmitriyev says Russia-US dialogue will continue.
- Russia’s Kremlin says it is obvious Ukraine is not in a hurry on peace negotiations, “we await timing of third round of talks”.
Other
- North Korea warned it stands ready to take military action against threats from the US, Japan and South Korea following recent joint air drills involving a strategic US bomber, according to KCNA.
END
SYRIA/DUBAI
this will be good for Syria@!
Syria Signs $800M Tartous Port Deal With Dubai-Based Company
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Syria has signed an $800-million agreement with Dubai-based DP World to redevelop the Tartous Port, state media reported on Sunday. The deal was signed in Damascus in the presence of self-appointed Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
The agreement grants DP World a 30-year term to operate and upgrade Tartous, one of Syria’s most strategic coastal hubs. Syrian officials say the deal is part of a wider push to modernize the country’s logistics infrastructure.
“This strategic move will bolster our port operations and logistics services,” an unnamed Syrian official told SANA. Qutaiba Badawi, chairman of the General Authority for Land and Sea Ports, called the deal “a new phase of field and maritime work in Syria.”
DP World chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said the agreement would position Tartous as a global transport node. “Syria possesses valuable assets,” he said, adding, “The port of Tartous will be one of the best in the world, particularly in transport and cargo handling services.”
According to Badawi, the contract was the result of months of negotiations and was structured to be “tight, fair and transparent.”
The agreement includes infrastructure and technological upgrades to expand Tartous’s cargo capacity and support the recovery of Syria’s industrial and commercial sectors.
The Tartous contract follows a series of high-value agreements signed in recent months, including a 30-year deal with France’s CMA CGM to operate Latakia Port and a $7-billion energy contract with Qatari, Turkish, and US firms to restore the power grid.
The US lifted most of its sanctions on Syria last month, citing what it called “positive actions” by Sharaa’s administration.
US President Donald Trump has revoked the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation for the Nusra Front, later known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), according to a State Department memo filed on 7 July.
In December 2024, HTS – under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa (who went by the name Abu Mohammad al-Julani when he was still an ISIS chief) – successfully ousted former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and took power in Damascus.
On June 7, Syria was reinstated to the SWIFT banking system, as Damascus began implementing financial reforms under Central Bank Governor Abdul Qader al-Husriya.
The Tartous Port deal comes seven months after HTS declared the ousting of the Assad government following its capture of Damascus and the flight of former president Bashar al-Assad.
END
SYRIA
Syria announces ceasefire in Sweida after agreement with local leaders, IDF strikes regime targets
Syrian troops entered the predominantly Druze city on Tuesday following two days of clashes, the first time government forces have deployed to Sweida since the new government took power.
Syrian forces enter Sweida as Druze leader says truce talks underway on July 15, 2025.(photo credit: screenshot via X/ section 27a copyright act)ByMAYA GUR ARIEH, REUTERSJULY 15, 2025 10:07Updated: JULY 15, 2025 14:38
Syria’s defense minister announced a ceasefire in Sweida in southern Syria after reaching an agreement with local leaders on Tuesday.
Earlier, Druze spiritual leaders in Sweida called on armed Druze factions to cooperate with government forces and surrender their weapons to the Syrian government.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, and other senior officials held a situational assessment via phone following developments in Syria and concerns about the Druze community.
The IDF attacked military equipment belonging to Syrian regime forces in Sweida , the military confirmed on Tuesday following initial reports.
This follows Syrian convoys, including APCs (armored personnel carrier) and tanks, heading towards Sweida on Monday.
In response, the IDF struck tanks, APCs, and mortar carriers, as well as access routes to disrupt their arrival in Sweida, the IDF said.
Syrian troops entered the predominantly Druze city on Tuesday following two days of clashes, the first time government forces have deployed to Sweida since the Islamist-led government seized power over the country in December.
Al-Arabiya cited Brigadier-General Ahmed al-Dalati, commander of internal security in the Sweida province, as saying that government forces from the Interior and Defense Ministries will enter the city.
He then announced there would be a curfew “on the city’s streets until further notice.”
This follows reports of sectarian violence in the village of Kanaker, west of Sweida, earlier on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that at least 18 members of Syria’s security forces have been killed in Sweida, the Defense Ministry said, after they deployed to quell deadly sectarian clashes.
According to Israeli public broadcaster KAN, tanks advanced towards the site where violent clashes broke out on Monday morning in Sweida, not far from the Israeli border.
A military source told Walla that the purpose of the Israeli strike was to prevent the movement of tanks into an area that the IDF does not allow Syrian military forces to enter.
The source added it was an unusual operation, but it was part of the effort to establish priorities on the ground regarding what Israel will and will not allow to happen in the region.
Ongoing clashes between Druze, Bedouins in southern Syria
This comes after there were exchanges of gunfire between Druze from Sweida and Bedouin in the past 24 hours.
More than 89 people were killed and at least 100 were wounded, according to an update by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Monday, in the latest bout of sectarian clashes.
Deaths included 50 people from Sweida, including two children and two women, 18 Bedouin, 14 members from the country’s Defense Ministry, and seven other unidentified men.
Sunday’s fighting between Druze militiamen and Bedouin tribal fighters was the first time that sectarian violence erupted inside Sweida itself, following months of tensions in the broader province.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that the IDF struck targets in Syria in a new message to the new Syrian government, stating, “We will not allow harm to the Druze in Syria. Israel will not stand by it.”
HEZBOLLAH/UK
they should take them up for their offer:
(JerusalemPost)
UK offers Lebanon plan to build surveillance towers along Israeli border – report
The initiative is modeled on similar towers Britain has installed along Lebanon’s border with Syria over the past decade.
Israel-Lebanon border(photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 15, 2025 05:06
The United Kingdom has allegedly proposed to Lebanon the construction of surveillance towers along its southern border with Israel, aimed at bolstering security and supporting the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the London-based Arabic international news Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Thursday.
According to an official Lebanese source cited by Asharq Al-Awsat, the initiative is modeled on similar towers Britain has installed along Lebanon’s border with Syria over the past decade.
The British offer was conveyed during UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy‘s visit to Beirut two weeks ago. Government sources said London proposed extending the observation network it previously erected in northern and eastern Lebanon to the southern frontier with Israel. Under the plan, the towers would be handed over to the Lebanese Army to enhance monitoring capabilities and reinforce stability in the border region.
The Lebanese Army currently maintains a presence alongside UNIFIL peacekeeping forces deployed in southern Lebanon.
Beirut remains committed to renewing UNIFIL’s mandate and has pledged to deploy 10,000 troops along the border, according to Asharq Al-Awsat.
Lebanon wants IDF troops out before discussions begin
Sources said Lebanon did not reject the UK proposal outright but informed British officials that any practical discussions must first be preceded by efforts to secure a lasting ceasefire with Israel, as well as a full withdrawal of IDF soldiers from within Lebanese territory. Officials stressed that calm, security guarantees, and a clear Israeli pullback are needed before moving forward with any new measures.
The British Embassy in Beirut neither confirmed nor denied the report.
A spokesperson said the UK maintains a strong and longstanding partnership with the Lebanese Army and is committed to supporting Lebanon’s efforts to build security and stability, emphasizing that Britain views the Lebanese Army as the sole legitimate military force of the state.
Since 2012, Britain has provided more than £115 million ($20.15 million) in support to the Lebanese military, including infrastructure, vehicles, training, equipment, and the establishment of border regiments.
During his visit, Lammy met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace. According to a statement from the presidency, Aoun welcomed any assistance that could reinforce stability on the southern border and enable cooperation between the Lebanese Army and international forces. He also called for diplomatic pressure on Israel to withdraw its forces, provide assurances against renewed aggression, and fully comply with Resolution 1701.
END
Israel doing everything it can to stop Hezbollah from re arming
(Times of Israel)
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
Israeli strikes on Lebanon said to kill 12, including five Hezbollah operatives
By AgenciesToday, 4:03 pm
Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley killed 12 people, the region’s governor Bachir Khodr tells Reuters, in the deadliest air strikes since last year’s truce ended months of fighting between terror group Hezbollah and Israel.
A security source tells Reuters that five of the dead were Hezbollah operatives. Khodr says seven of the dead were Syrian nationals, who often work in the agricultural fields of the Beqaa region.
Israel said the airstrikes deep inside Lebanon were aimed at stopping an elite Hezbollah unit from regrouping and rebuilding its strength.
The strikes in Lebanon’s northeastern Beqaa Valley hit military facilities belonging to the Hezbollah terror group’s Radwan force, where operatives and weapon depots had been detected, the Israel Defense Forces said.
end
looks like Iranian shia militia targeting oil rich Erbil
(zerohedge)
IRAQ (ERBIL/FORMER USA TERRORITY) /IRANIAN SHIA MILITIA
Drone Attacks On Northern Iraqi Oil Field On The Rise Amid Iran Tensions
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 08:15 AM
On Monday an explosive-laden drone sought to target vital infrastructure in northern Iraq, in an area known to host final remnants of US troops and officials. The US has long been most closely involved with Iraqi Kurdistan.
The drone carrying explosives was intercepted and brought down early Monday near Erbil International Airport in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, local officials said. A later, separate nighttime (Monday) attack targeted a key oil field in the region.
The region’s Directorate General of Counter Terrorism stated that the drone targeting the airport was shot down at 2:20 a.m. local time (2320 GMT on Sunday).
While no casualties or property damage resulted, and no group has taken responsibility for the incident so far, it suggests the possibility that Iran-allied Shia paramilitaries could be ready to cause havoc, following the 12-day Israel-Iran war last June, which the US also became involved in through bombing three nuclear facilities.
Iraq has seen a rise in drone-related attacks in recent weeks – with for example earlier this month security forces having shot down another explosive drone near Erbil Airport.
And recently similar device was intercepted near a Kurdish Peshmerga base in Kirkuk province. This brings up the possibility of anti-Kurdish factions, or even the possibility of remnant ISIS cells.
In the night hours of Monday, there are new reports of yet another drone attack in the region, and this time unverified videos suggest that damage has been done (unconfirmed):
According to Rudaw English, a Kurdish regional outlet:
Two explosive-laden drones target the Khurmala oil field in Erbil province, resulting in no casualties – citing Kurdish counterterrorism units.
The oil field lies southwest of Erbil, and reports suggest they were intercepted by US-led coalition forces on Monday night. The area lies about 60 kilometers from Erbil city.
end
Trump’s “Major Statement” On Russia Is A Clumsy Attempt To Thread The Needle
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 12:00 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
His threatened secondary sanctions could majorly backfire by harming the US’ own interests.
The “major statement” on Russia that Trump earlier hyped up turned out to be a clumsy attempt to thread the needle between radically escalating US involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict and walking away from it. His new three-pronged approach includes:
1) the rapid dispatch of up to 17 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine;
2) more arms sales to NATO countries who’ll in turn transfer them to Ukraine; and
3) up to 100% secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners if a peace deal isn’t reached in 50 days.
In the order that they were mentioned, each corresponding move is aimed at:
1) bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses in order to decelerate the pace of Russia’s continual on-the-ground gains;
2) helping Ukraine reconquer some of its lost land; and
3) coercing China and India into pressuring Russia into a ceasefire.
The first two goals are self-explanatory, with the second being unrealistic given the failure of Ukraine’s much more heavily armed counteroffensive in summer 2023, while the third requires some elaboration.
China and India’s large-scale imports of discounted Russian oil have served as crucial valves from Western sanctions pressure by helping to stabilize the ruble and thus Russia’s economy in general. Even though these imports also help their own economies, Trump is wagering that they’ll at the very least curtail them in order to avoid his threatened 100% secondary sanctions. He might make an exception for the Europeans and Turks, who also purchase Russian resources, on the pretext of them arming Ukraine.
By focusing on Russia’s two largest energy importers, Trump is trying to greatly reduce the budgetary revenue that the Kremlin receives from these sales while sowing further divisions within the RIC core of BRICS and the SCO, expecting as he is that at least China or India will partially comply at minimum. Prior to his deadline, he envisages that their leaders – who are years-long close friends with Putin – will try to pressure him into the ceasefire that the West wants, though it’s unknown whether they’d succeed.
In any case, Trump is poised to place himself in a dilemma entirely of his own making if one of them doesn’t comply with his demand to stop trading with Russia, or if one or both only do so in part. He’d either have to delay the imposition of his threatened 100% secondary sanctions on all their imports, lower the level, or reduce the scale to only apply to their companies that still trade with Russia otherwise there could be serious blowback, especially if China is the one that doesn’t fully comply.
His preliminary trade agreement with China, which he described in early May as a “total reset” in their ties, could collapse and thus raise prices across the board for Americans. As regards India, their ongoing trade talks could collapse too, which could create an opening for advancing the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement whose existence was cautiously confirmed by its top diplomat on Monday. Each case of blowback, let alone both of them at the same time, could be very detrimental to American interests.
Trump’s attempt to thread the needle therefore isn’t just clumsy, but it could also majorly backfire, thus raising the question of why he agreed to do so.
It looks like he was misled into thinking that Putin would agree to a ceasefire that doesn’t resolve the root security-related causes of the conflict in exchange for a resource-centric strategic partnership.
When Putin declined, Trump took it personally and imagined that Putin was playing him, which led to Trump’s advisors manipulating him into this escalation as vengeance.
RUSSIAN VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
this is extremely important as the USA removes toxic chemicals from the food supply
(zerohedge)
White House Unveils Sweeping MAHA Changes In Nation’s Food Supply Chain
Monday, Jul 14, 2025 – 07:40 PM
Months after President Trump released a report titled “The MAHA Report: Make Our Children Healthy Again,” outlining America’s childhood chronic disease crisis and its potential contributing causes, the White House has now released a detailed list of changes within the processed food industrial complex — just ahead of a promised September revelation by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has pledged to identify the root cause of the autism epidemic.
“President Donald J. Trump took office promising to confront the chronic health crisis plaguing Americans — and six months later, he is delivering on that promise by removing harmful chemicals from our food supply,” the White House wrote in a statement.
The White House noted that “dozens of ice cream companies — representing more than 90% of the ice cream volume sold in the U.S. — have pledged to eliminate the use of certified artificial colors in their ice cream and frozen dairy products.”
What’s becoming undeniable is that this nation’s food supply was hijacked by globalist mega-corporations pumping it full of toxic ingredients. If that wasn’t the case, why are they now scrambling to remove synthetic dyes and other harmful chemicals?
Here’s the growing list of companies that have taken steps to improve their food supply chain:
- Steak & Shake moved to 100% all-natural beef tallow and replaced its “buttery blend,” which contained seed oils, with 100% Grade A Wisconsin butter.
- McCormick announced it will drop certain food dyes from its products.
- PepsiCo announced it will remove artificial ingredients from popular food items — including Lay’s and Tostitos chips — by the end of the year.
- In-N-Out announced it will remove synthetic food dyes and artificial flavors from its menu items, and also transitioned to 100% beef tallow.
- Tyson Foods eliminated synthetic dyes in its food products.
- Mars removed titanium dioxide from its Skittles product.
- Sam’s Club committed to removing 40 harmful ingredients — including artificial colors, additives, dyes, and high-fructose corn syrup — from its private-label products.
- Kraft-Heinz announced it will remove artificial dyes from its U.S. products.
- General Mills announced it will remove artificial dyes from its U.S. cereals and all foods served in K-12 schools.
- Nestlé announced it will remove all petroleum-based food dyes from its food and beverage products.
- Conagra Foods announced it will remove certain color additives from its frozen products, no longer offer products with artificial dyes in K-12 schools, and stop using artificial dyes in the manufacturing of its products.
- JM Smucker announced it will remove synthetic colors from its consumer food products.
- Hershey announced it will remove synthetic dyes from its snacks.
- Consumer Brands announced it will urge its members to remove artificial colors in food and beverage products served in schools.
Americans must demand more from these mega food companies — say no to seed oils and other toxic chemicals in the food supply chain. The best way to break free from the industrial food complex is to go local: find a farmer or rancher, plant a garden, raise chickens. Yes, it takes work — but it not only secures your own food supply, it also helps you understand exactly where your food comes from.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Is HHS Health and Human Services now under RFK Jr. (Robert Kennedy Jr.) over-run, lead by, ran daily by the insider deepstate swamp still? Is RFK Jr. helpless & just a placeholder? McCullough seems to
think so…so do I; “Is US Department of Health and Human Services Overrun by Deep State?” “that the Department of Health and Human Services, overseen by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, is overrun by a bio-
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 15 |
pharmaceutical deep state. Corrupt old players may have been replaced by new HHS special government employees; but all are in for continued government grift through lucrative contracts.” “So why are they still on the market? Same reason we still have home testing kits mailed out to the public and dozens of manufacturers make PCR and antigen assays sold to clinical laboratories all over the country.”
McCullough is 100% correct.
Let me set the table with this first for full disclosure as I am dismayed too and upset:
I love RFK Jr., support him, I did admire the guy and still do…we did work together, on stages etc. But he needs to establish credibility at these agencies CDC, HHS, FDA etc., and it is falling fast. He got to get a lead on these issues and this Spikevax is a disaster. I am rooting for RFK Jr. Issue is I am not the others who write stacks and the like washing and lathering in their writing, I do not cup anyone, not even RFK Jr. I see lots of cupping taking place. It is deplorable, obnoxious. Shameful. For a job? You people have no integrity? Cupping openly?
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
IMO, FDA, HHS, CDC, NIH, NIAID etc. will change nothing, just fluff round about talk; their job due to deepstate and operatives placed there is to undercut RFK Jr. (I think Makary and Oz et al. are part of deepstate and their job is to bullshit and subvert RFK Jr. and I do not believe he RFK Jr. is ill serving Americans, I just believe he has already been DRAINED by DC, now it’s just coffees and cocktails and wine and cheeses, its over for him, good man, but he can do NOTHING of effect, Wiles made it so)…
Is US Department of Health and Human Services Overrun by Deep State?
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. The Wellness Company, launched in 2022, offers health care, prescriptions, and supplements, all backed by research
The Wellness Company isn’t chasing profits — it’s trying to help people recover. While the government continues pushing vaccines, The Wellness Company is focusing on real solutions.
From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
Please consider support of a good PATRIOT company (in this PATRIOT economy) Drs. McCullough, Risch, Thorp, myself support (they are our sponsors), The Wellness Company; see the emergency preparation kit (key component being antibiotics you were denied by doctors, pharmacists, governments during the fraud COVID), first aid kit, travel emergency kit, contagion control kit etc. Please consider the SPIKE SUPPORT (spike protein DETOX dissolving spike from mRNA vaccine, this is critical to remove spike form the mRNA vaccine/and DNA viral vector) formula with NATTOKINASE as well as the triple formula (SPIKE SUPPORT, BROMELAIN, CIRCUMIN)
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| DOJ Rejects Ghislaine Maxwell’s Appeal in SCOTUS ResponseThe Biden-era Department of Justice filed a motion Monday asking the U.S. Supreme Court to reject Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell’s appeal, just as public outrage over the government’s handling of the Epstein case continues to grow.Maxwell Seeks Review of 2007 Plea DealMaxwell, now 63, is serving a 20-year prison sentence in Tallahassee, Florida, after being convicted in 2021 of …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Here’s the Man Who Had Final Say on Biden’s Last PardonsFormer President Joe Biden didn’t sign off on his final pardons. He didn’t even approve the list. That power—shockingly—was handed to someone no American voted for: former White House Chief of Staff and COVID czar Jeff Zients.Zients Signed, Not BidenOn the night of January 19, 2025—Biden’s final day in office—his aides scrambled to finalize a sweeping batch of last-minute pardons …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Project Veritas: Secret Service Agent Invited Stranger to White House, Mocked TrumpOn the anniversary of the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt against President Donald Trump, Project Veritas has released disturbing evidence that a current U.S. Secret Service agent invited a stranger into the White House, leaked operational details, and made inappropriate comments about the Commander-in-Chief.The agent, identified as Marc Hendrickson, is shown in text messages inviting a woman—who turned out to …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Supreme Court Allows Trump to Dismantle Department of EducationPresident Donald Trump scored a major legal and political victory on Monday, as the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6–3 to allow his administration to move forward with dismantling the Department of Education — a long-time promise to return control of schools to states, parents, and local communities.The high court’s decision overturns a lower court ruling that had blocked the administration …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Watch: Zohran Mamdani Ends Press Conference During Reporters’ QuestionsZohran Mamdani’s latest campaign stop ended in embarrassment Monday after his own team abruptly pulled him offstage during a press Q&A — as music drowned out reporters and aides shouted over the candidate.The awkward scene unfolded after Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for New York City mayor, accepted an endorsement from the American Federation of Musicians, Local 802.He began taking questions …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
———- Forwarded message ———
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
CANADA/USA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1689 UP 0.0024 PTS OR 24 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.66 DOWN 0.129 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3447 UP .0019 OR 19 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3699 DOWN 0.0018(CDN DOLLAR UP 18 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 14.65 PTS OR 0.42%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 315.48 PTS OR 1.30%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.68%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 315.48 PTS OR 1.30%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.65 PTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.68 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 218.40 PTS OR 0,55%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3363.65
silver:$38.35
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.65 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.111% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.572% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS AND 01/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.286 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.561 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.684 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1651 DOWN 0.0014 OR 14 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.42 UP 0.633 OR YEN IS DOWN 63 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5930 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0014 OR 14 BASIS pts to 1.3692
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.17300 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1819
TURKISH LIRA: 40.22 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.572
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.439% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.978 DOWN 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.927 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3338.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 37.97
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 59.74 PTS OR 0.66%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 100.35 pts or 0.42%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 41.96 pts or 0.54%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 161.30 pts or 1.12%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 265.10 or 0.66%
WTI Oil price 66.56 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 68.95 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 77.57 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 52/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.551 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.083 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1600 DOWN 0.0065 OR 65 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3388 DOWN .0039 OR 39 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6250 up 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.577 UP 0 FULL BASIS PT
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.86 UP 1.079 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3714 UP 0.0008 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 66.85
Brent OIL: 68.80
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 4.490
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 PTS to 5.019%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 3.957%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.604 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.135 UP 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.33 UP 57 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.23 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.91 UP 0 AND 18/100 roubles
GOLD $3327.50 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 37.73 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 436.36 OR .98%
NASDAQ 100 UP 28.96 PTS OR 0.13%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.05 DOWN 0.15 PTS OR 0.82%
GLD: $ 306.73 DOWN 1.28 PTS OR 0.42%
SLV/ $34.26 DOWN 0.57 PTS OR OR 1.07%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 125.74 PTS OR .56%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Semis & CPI Spark Surge In Big-Tech & The Buck; Bullion, Bitcoin, & Bonds Dumped
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 08:00 PM
US equities were mixed today as investors digest:
(1) another benign inflation report (Core CPI cooler than expected);
(2) favorable semis trade news between China and the US (NVDA to sell H20s to Beijing); and
(3) the kick-off of big bank earnings season, which for the most part failed to clear a high bar.
Rate-cut odds tumbled as Goldman notes that there was some evidence of tariff impulses as traditional import goods categories like household furnishings, recreation commodities, apparel, and auto parts all rose on the month. And their economists actually raised our forecast for PCE inflation by 4bp to 0.29% mom. But CPI inflation, at least for now, remains below 3%…
Source: Bloomberg
S&P 500 briefly breaking through 6300 for the first time ever after a softer than consensus CPI (Core MoM 23bps vs 30bps consensus) + NVDA +5% (set to resume H20 sales to China) but fading into the afternoon with no smoking gun on the move lower (30YR through 5%, bad breath, unwinds?). Nasdaq (elevated by NVDA et al) was the only major index to close green today (and even there, it was well off its highs of the day)…
Today was the biggest outperformance of Nasdaq (new record high) relative to Small Caps since early April.
Tech was the only sector green on the day with Materials and Healthcare underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
The Mag7 dominated gains today (+1%) while the S&P 493 fell around 1%…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading floor was a 5 on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels.
Overall we are slightly better for sale led by HF supply in Fins and HC
- LOs 9% better to buy (buying Fins, HC, and macro expressions vs vs selling Materials, Energy, Comm Svcs and Cons Staples)
- HFs 125bps better for sale (buying Cons Discr, Cons Staples, and Energy vs selling HC and Fins)
Momo stocks rebounded back above their 50DMA today, erasing half of last week’s losses…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks squeezed higher at the open but were dumped from that point on…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar soared again this morning – the 9th straight session higher for DXY. The last time the dollar rallied for 10 straight days was Feb 2017…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s rally lifted the Bloomberg Dollar index up to its 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Yen tumbled to its weakest since early February against the greenback…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields spiked today on a delayed response to CPI data (which was cooler than expected?). The short-end/belly underperformed on the day (5Y +6bps, 30Y +4bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Breakevens broke out with 10Y BEs at their highest since February…
Source: Bloomberg
Having broken out to new record highs yesterday, Bitcoin (and its equity derivatives – Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood) tumbled later in the day as the House failed to pass a procedural vote on the three bills pegged for this ‘crypto week’…
Source: Bloomberg
ETH outperformed BTC today shifting to its strongest (relatively speaking) since the first week of March…
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar strength took the shine of the barbarous relic today, with gold falling back to support at the 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended yesterday’s losses (modestly), with WTI seemingly finding support around $66.50 (after stalling at the resistance of the 200DMA yesterday)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, NVDA pushed 5% higher on the China chip sales headlines, dramatically eclipsing the CSCO dot-com boom analog
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA is now at above $4.2 trillion market cap (half a billion dollars more than MSFT).
BIG NEWS OF THE DAY
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
in preparation for Tuesday;s important CPI report
CPI Preview: Will The Impact Of Tariffs Finally Emerge
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 01:20 AM
Wednesday’s CPI report will be closely watched to see if the tariffs imposed in recent months are finally pushing prices higher, something they have failed to do so far.
Here is what Wall Street expects:
- Consensus is looking for CPI to rise by +0.3% M/M in June, picking up in pace vs the +0.1% in May
- Core CPI is also expected to rise by +0.3% M/M in June after the +0.1% in May.
In a rather narrow range, expectations for the annual increase in core CPI range from 2.8% to 3.1%
Wells Fargo says the data is likely to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this stage. It said that “amid a softer labour market and services inflation dissipating a bit more, the pickup in core inflation stemming from tariffs is likely to look more like a bump than a spike.” The data will be framed in the context of how US tariff policy is impacting prices, and the consequential knock-on onto Fed policy.
Most Fed officials have taken a cautious approach on the outlook for rates, given expectations that consumer prices are expected to rise towards the end of the year due to tariff effects. However, some (Bowman and Waller) have suggested that the tariff-induced price rises might be a one-off and would therefore allow officials to look at rate cuts as soon as the July meeting if inflation pressures remain contained. Money markets, however, do not see this materializing, and are currently pricing a sub-5% probability that the Fed will reduce rates on July 30th; through the end of the year, markets are still fully pricing two 25bps reductions, in keeping with the Fed’s own projections.
In its preview of the CPI print, Goldman expects a 0.23% increase in June core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.93% (vs. +3.0% consensus). The bank expects a 0.30% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.25%) and energy prices (+1.2%). This corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 2.68% (vs. +2.6% consensus). The forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent in June.
The bank highlights four key component-level trends it expect to see in this month’s report.
First, a decline in used car prices (-0.5%), based on the signal from auction prices, and unchanged new car prices, reflecting a sequential increase in dealer incentives.
Second, a more moderate increase in the car insurance category (+0.3%) based on premiums in the bank’s online dataset.
Third, a modest rebound in airfares in June (+1%), though there is meaningful two-sided risk to the component, reflecting a large headwind from seasonal distortions but a large increase in underlying airfares based on analysts’ tracking of online price data.
Fourth, moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed, such as the household furnishings and the recreation and communication goods categories, worth +0.08pp on core inflation.
Elsewhere in the report, Goldman expect the shelter components to accelerate slightly on net after slowing sharply last month, reflecting a 0.25% increase in rent (vs. +0.21% in May) and a 0.27% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (vs. +0.27% in May). We forecast a modest increase in hotel prices (+0.1%), reflecting a slight uptick in hotel prices reported by Smith Travel Research.
Going forward, Goldman believes that tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and the bank expects monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4% over the next few months. Its forecast reflects a sharp acceleration in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term. Aside from tariff effects, the bank expects underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets. Goldman expects year-over-year core CPI inflation of +3.1% and core PCE inflation of +3.3% in December 2025 (or +2.3% for both measures excluding the effects of tariffs).
Turning to the market reaction, Goldman’s trading desk notes that the S&P strangle is pricing in a very modest 0.57% move by the close of tomorrow.
Next, we share some thoughts from around the Goldman trading desk:
Joseph Briggs (US Econ)
Our US team is forecasting 23bp for core CPI in June, reflecting a decline in used car prices (-0.5%), moderate increases in car insurance (+0.3%) and airfares (+1%), and a slight pickup in core services inflation (+0.26%) from its soft recent trend. Most importantly, the forecast assumes that higher tariff costs will add 8bp to MoM core, with tariff effects skewed toward household furnishings and recreational / communication goods. While we expect that core CPI inflation should pick up as tariffs increasingly boost prices in 2025H2 (and forecast 3.1% YoY core CPI by Dec), another month of less alarming tariff-driven price increases would support our forecast for a 25bp Fed rate cut in September (and two more in 2025).
Joe Clyne (Index Vol Trading)
Heading into CPI, the vol market is priced for considerable calm. Vols have retraced dramatically over the last few months and though this month’s CPI holds some sway over the future Fed path, equity vol markets are nonplussed entering the print. We expect the straddle for the event to cost just over 50 bps. Realized vol and implieds have both cratered over the last few weeks, but we like fading the move and net owning options, whether in gamma or vega tenors. We think outright puts look attractive in the short-dated space but in the belly of the curve would lean to put spreads or put ratios with skew still looking somewhat elevated.
Louis Miller (GS Macro Thematic / Custom Baskets)
The impact of tariffs both through uncertainty / pass through to consumer prices and the eventual impact on growth have been less negative than expected as businesses were battle tested over the past 5 years. Many large corporations had direct communication with the White House and built-up inventory ahead of time – inventory is in the 70th percentile for the S&P 500 and 105 days of inventory on hand. This print is also expected to be lighter than the 0.3% expected anecdotally due to other disinflationary forces. So what’s priced? At least something. The 9 sharpe 3m rally in the beta factor, cyclicals/defensive at the highs, and the breakout in meme stocks would argue this CPI print will not be problematic. The gradual momentum unwind we are in the midst of in July could continue, driven by the short leg on a soft print especially if the cutting cycle appears more certain in the rates market. If we get a firm print, it’s likely good for consensus trades, but not likely enough to derail the markets current momentum.
Karen Fishman (FX Research)
The CPI report looks likely to be just one part of an otherwise busy week for markets, including continued tariff headlines, retail sales, import prices, and lots of Fedspeak on the calendar. A soft outcome—our economists are below consensus—feels like the most straightforward, with room to price in a more dovish Fed and a weaker Dollar, especially after the moves over the past couple weeks. How markets respond to a hawkish outcome feels a bit less clear. On the one hand, a firmer print should not change the current baseline very much, with markets already pricing in higher inflation and a couple Fed cuts. Perhaps a bit more can be taken out over the next couple Fed meetings, but there has already been a hawkish repricing on the back of better-than-expected US data. On the other hand, there may be a beat that’s high enough (that’s clearly driven by tariffs) that refocuses markets on the fact that the US looks to be disproportionately paying for the tariffs. That should weigh most clearly on the Dollar, especially vs JPY, EUR, and CHF. Dollar weakness could then extend if import prices on Thursday also remain firm, which together with a firmer CPI would suggest that the burden continues to fall mostly on the US and the odds of a greater Fed response would go up. That said, the broadest Dollar downside (i.e., including vs EM) would likely come from a combo of soft CPI + firm import prices + soft retail sales
Next, we turn to JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk which remains quite bullish as discussed earlier:
The risk/reward of this print is skewed to the upside as the market await the potential worst of tariff-induced inflation. After the recession warnings of 2023 and 2024, the market is not giving prognosticators the benefit of the doubt with calls for an inflation spike. While we agree with our Economists that we are highly likely to experience a price spike, it seems that we are at least a month away from having a print whose magnitude may spook the market. Assuming this prints in line, the market refocused on August 1 trade deadlines, Aug 1 NFP, and then the Aug 12 CPI prints. Further, this print is unlikely to significantly shift Fed cut expectations. That said, the Fed’s Goolsbee mentioned that new tariffs have clouded the inflation outlook which likely means that any Fed action is delayed. Given how much of the presumed inflation spike is tied to tariffs, it is worthwhile to read Abiel Reinhart’s latest note on effective tariff rates where he finds that the effective tariff rate was 12.3% as Canada/Mexico effective rates surprised to the downsid
Finally, here is JPM’s trademark market sensitivity matrix for core CPI:
- Core MoM prints above 0.37%. Odds: 5.0%; SPX loses 1% – 2%
- Core MoM prints between 0.32% – 0.37%. Odds 25.0%; SPX loses 0.50% – 1.25%
- Core MoM prints between 0.28% – 0.32%. Odds 35.0%; SPX gains 0.25% – 0.75%
- Core MoM prints between 0.23% – 0.28%. Odds 30.0%; SPX gains 0.75% – 1.25%
- Core MoM prints below 0.23%. Odds 5.0%; SPX gains 1.5% – 2%
end
And now the report this morning at 8 20
Tariff-ic! Core Consumer Price Inflation Cooler Than Expected In June
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 08:38 AM
Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time? Or will the excuse factory be required to spin the Trump-policy-driven price hike expectations as coming next time?
Expectations were for a modest acceleration in prices in June and headline Consumer Prices did just that rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (up from +2.4% prior and hotter than the +2.6% YoY expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The MoM acceleration was driven by a flip from deflation to inflation for Energy prices…
Source: Bloomberg
New and Used Car prices are dropping!!! That’s not supposed to happen…
CPI Highlights: the index for shelter rose 0.2% in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9% in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0% over the month. The index for food increased 0.3% as the index for food at home rose 0.3% and the index for food away from home rose 0.4% in June.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% increase in May. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among the major indexes that decreased in June.
The headline CPI YoY is the hottest since February but Core CPI printed cooler than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) with the YoY rise higher at +2.9% (as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Goods prices are accelerating on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
More details on Core CPI which rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% 3 estimate:
- The shelter index increased 0.2% over the month. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in June and the index for rent increased 0.2%.
- Conversely, the lodging away from home index fell 2.9% in June.
- The household furnishings and operations index rose 1.0% in June, after rising 0.3% in May.
- The index for recreation increased 0.4% over the month.
- The apparel index increased 0.4% in June and the personal care index rose 0.3%.
- In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7% in June after declining 0.5 percent in May.
- The new vehicles index fell 0.3 percent over the month, and the airline fares index declined 0.1 percent.
- The medical care index increased 0.5% over the month, following a 0.3-percent increase in May.
- The index for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent in June as did the index for prescription drugs.
- The physicians’ services index rose 0.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.9% over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.8% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.8%), motor vehicle insurance (+6.1%), household furnishings and operations (+3.3%), and recreation (+2.1%).
This is the 5th monthly ‘miss’ for Core CPI in a row – the sky is falling analyst crowd continues to be wrong…
Source: Bloomberg
Rent/Shelter inflation slowed in June…
- Rent inflation June 3.77% YoY, down from 3.80% in May and the lowest since Jan 2022
- Shelter inflation June 3.80% YoY, down from 3.86% in May and the lowest since Oct 2021
SuperCore CPI (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.36% MoM, lifting prices 3.34% YoY – highest since feb but well off the YTD highs
Source: Bloomberg
Medical Care Services costs are also starting to accelerate (not exactly tariff-driven)…
Source: Bloomberg
On a 3m- and 6m- annualized basis, there are no signs of the tariff-driven price hikes as yet…
.com/zerohedge/status/1945100012947427486?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E19451000129474274
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly the damning evidence of terrifying tariff-flation that the establishment wants us to believe is coming…
Developing…
end
Bessent Says “Formal Process” To Find Successor To Jerome Powell Has Begun
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 01:00 PM
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Tuesday that a “formal process” is underway to find a potential successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
In an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance, Bessent remarked, “There are a lot of great candidates, and we’ll see how rapidly it progresses.”
He also noted that it would be confusing for Powell to stay on at the Federal Reserve after his term as chair concludes.
Since last month President Donald Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, repeatedly accusing him of mismanaging monetary policy and calling for aggressive interest rate cuts.
Trump has argued that Powell is acting too slowly to respond to economic conditions and said, “Maybe I should go to the Fed… Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I’d do a much better job than these people.”
He has labeled Powell with a series of insults, calling him “stupid,” “too late,” “a numbskull,” and demanding the Fed slash rates by a full percentage point to stimulate the economy.
Trump’s attacks continued into July, growing even sharper. On July 8, he declared that Powell “should resign immediately.” A few days later, he criticized Powell over cost overruns tied to a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve, referring to him as a “knucklehead” and “stupid guy.”
Last week, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought also criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a renovation project he called “too lavish,” referring to it as “Versailles on the National Mall.”
On CNBC, Vought cited “fundamental mismanagement” at the Fed.
Meanwhile, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, a potential successor to Powell, added, “If there is cause to fire Powell, Trump has the authority to do so.” The criticism appeared coordinated, with other figures like Fed candidate Kevin Warsh and Vice President J.D. Vance joining in.
Trump also reiterated his demand for rates to be cut to around 1%. Members of his team suggested they might review the renovation project as a possible justification to remove Powell “for cause.”
END
Supreme Court Allows Trump To Fire Education Department Employees
Monday, Jul 14, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,
The Supreme Court on July 14 allowed President Donald Trump to move forward with dismantling the Department of Education by firing almost 1,400 employees.
In a brief unsigned ruling, the justices blocked the order issued in May by U.S. District Judge Myong Joun, who had concluded that the Trump administration’s “true intention is to effectively dismantle the Department” even though in his view it lacked the power to do so.
The court did not explain its decision.
Three justices – Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson – dissented from the ruling.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented, in a 19-page opinion that was joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
Sotomayor called the court’s decision “indefensible,” writing that it “hands the Executive the power to repeal statutes by firing all those necessary to carry them out.”
“The majority,” she said, “is either willfully blind to the implications of its ruling or naïve, but either way the threat to our Constitution’s separation of powers is grave.”
In her dissent, Sotomayor emphasized that, until this year, “Presidents have recognized they lack the unilateral authority to eradicate a Department that Congress has tasked with fulfilling statutory duties.”
But President Donald Trump, she said, “has made clear that he intends to close the Department without Congress’s involvement.”
In its briefs at the Supreme Court, Sotomayor continued, “the Government does not defend the lawfulness of its actions” but instead “presents a grab bag of jurisdictional and remedial arguments to support its bid for emergency relief” – none of which, she said, “justifies this Court’s intervention.”
A federal district court had issued an injunction blocking the process, directing the government to rehire some of the departmental employees who had been laid off.
Trump campaigned on shuttering the department.
On March 20, he signed Executive Order 14242, pledging to close the agency, which he said “has entrenched the education bureaucracy and sought to convince America that Federal control over education is beneficial.”
The department “does not educate anyone” and “maintains a public relations office that includes over 80 staffers at a cost of more than $10 million per year,” the executive order states.
end
DOGE Announces Billions Of Dollars In Federal Contracts Terminated
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 08:50 AM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said over the weekend that agencies have terminated more federal contracts worth as much as $2.8 billion.
In a post on social media platform X on July 12, DOGE, a task force established by President Donald Trump in January, said that “over the last week, agencies terminated 230 wasteful contracts,” resulting in savings of $407 million.
That includes a contract from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for a “Mexico sustainable landscapes consultant” and a Treasury Department contract for “mentoring, evaluation, learning specialist services in Haiti,” according to the DOGE post. The post included what appears to be screenshots of the programs’ descriptions.
Earlier this month, DOGE’s website released an update that the task force has saved approximately $190 billion, which it says amounts to around $1,180 per taxpayer. So far, the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Education Department, Office of Personnel Management, and Department of Labor have initiated the most cuts, according to the site.
Meanwhile, DOGE’s database shows that around 11,700 contracts have been terminated across all federal agencies, with an estimated saving of around $44 billion. At the same time, around 15,500 federal grants have been slashed, it shows, worth some $44 billion.
The update from DOGE comes as the Senate is slated to vote on spending cuts this week that would claw back $9.4 billion in public media and foreign aid spending. Senate Democrats are trying to kill the measure but need a few Republicans to join them.
Trump has asked lawmakers to rescind nearly $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which represents the full amount it’s due to receive during the next two budget years.
On July 10, the president warned that he would withhold his backing for any Republican lawmaker who opposes the rescissions package, which also includes cuts to foreign aid.
“It is very important that all Republicans adhere to my Recissions Bill and, in particular, DEFUND THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING (PBS and NPR), which is worse than CNN & MSDNC put together,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Trump went on to say that “any Republican that votes to allow this monstrosity to continue broadcasting will not have my support or Endorsement.”
Other than Trump, the White House has said that the public media system is politically biased and an unnecessary expense.
The corporation distributes more than two-thirds of the money to more than 1,500 locally operated public television and radio stations, with much of the remainder assigned to National Public Radio and Public Broadcasting Service to support national programming.
The update from DOGE over the past weekend suggests that the organization is still engaged in activities to identify and root out what it deems to be fraud, waste, and abuse within the federal government, following the departure of former White House special government employee Elon Musk from the administration in late May.
Musk, who had effectively served as a spokesperson and leader for DOGE during his time in the White House, has since had a falling out with the Trump administration and Republicans, announcing earlier this month that he would form his own political party.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
A NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 15, 2025 Issue 7533 | Independent View of the News |
| It’s TACO Tuesday during Expiry Week and the start of Earnings Season! @AFP: The European Commission on Monday said it was putting forward a new list of US goods worth 72 billion euros ($84 billion) that could be targeted by EU levies if tariff talks with Washington fail https://u.afp.com/SYcE @_StephanieMyers: President Trump meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Trump started off the meeting by saying he is very unhappy with Russia. Trump: “We’ll be doing tariffs in 50 days (on Russia) and we’ll be doing tariffs— secondary tariffs — at 100%” if a deal isn’t a Russia-Ukraine deal. Trump says he and Rutte made a deal today to send weapons to Ukraine through NATO. Trump: “The U.S. will not be having any payment made. We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it and they (NATO) will be paying for it.” Trump: “This is a Biden war. This is a democrat war, not a republican or Trump war.” DJT: “I’m disappointed in President Putin. I thought we would’ve had a deal two months ago…” DJT: Putin fires missiles after we talk. Putin has fooled a lot of people. The talk with Putin doesn’t mean anything. Putin must save his country, his economy. Russia is potentially a great country, what a waste. @GordonJohnson19: “Tesla’s new vehicle registrations in the US declined by 33.2% in February 2025 compared to January 2025, with 31,420 registrations. This decline is also reflected in year-over-year comparisons, with a 14.32% decrease from February 2024.” – Pricing Culture In Despite Trump’s latest tariffs, US stocks rebounded robustly after early weakness. The upward seasonal biases, Monday, Expiry Week, and start of earnings season worked their magic. As we have been harping for YEARS, seasonal biases and intraday biases have become increasingly ingrained over the past decade or so. The patterns have become self-fulling prophesies because so many professional traders play the patterns. And, as we have repeatedly noted, playing the trading patterns usurps most fundamental developments. Only profoundly negative news thwarts the trading schemes. ESUs traded sharply lower but sideways from the Nikkei opening on Monday until they broke down at 1:45 ET. ESUs made a daily low of 6259.75 at 3:27 ET. European opening dip buyers then aggressively bought; ESUs jumped to 6283.50 at 5:22 ET. After trading sideways with a modest upward bias, ESUs commenced the rally for the NYSE opening at 9:20 ET. During the first 90 minutes of trading, ESUs traded higher but in very choppy action with three double digits sudden drops during the rally. ESUs hit a daily high of 6307.00 at 11:40 ET. After an A-B-C decline to 6298.75 at 12:29 ET, ESUs marched to a daily high of 6315.00 at 14:35 ET. ESUs then did a very slow rollover to 6307.00 at 15:45 ET. The late manipulation was lame. ESUs plodded to 6313.50 at 15:59 ET and then fell to 6308.75 at 16 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Upward seasonal bias generated a robust rally from overnight ESU lows and early equity losses. Gold, Oil, and Gasoline declined moderately. Fangs were strong on pattern buying. Negative aspects of previous session USUs fell as much as 14/32 and were -5.32 at the NYSE close. The DJTA declined sharply early and closed -106.43 Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will there be a TACO Tuesday and/or a Turnaround Tuesday? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6260.36 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6273.31; 6239.22 @GlobalMktObserv: Investors should watch the US and the Japanese bond markets: Japan’s 40-year and 30-year government bond yields are trading near their highest since their debut in 2007 and 1999. The 30-year Treasury yield is flirting with 5.0% handle once again. https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1944909781849841715 Today – Expiry Week and the start of earnings season upward bias are the major factors in the equity market. Big Banks start reporting today. Though equities had a robust rally and most indices closed with gains, the usual suspects will play for a Turnaround Tuesday and TACO Tuesday. Expected Economic Data: June CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.6% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.9% y/y; July Empire Mfg. -9.6; Fed Gov Bowman 9:15 ET, Fed Gov Barr 12:45 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 13:00 ET, Boston Fed Pres Collins 14:45 ET Expected Earnings: BLK 10.87, JPM 4.47, BK 1.76, WFC 1.41, STT 2.35, C 1.60, JBHT 1.31 ESUs are -6.00; NQUs are -21.50; USUs are -1/32; and gold is -4.00 at 20:15 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 5977; 100-day MA: 5790; 150-day MA: 5863; 200-day MA: 5860 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,692; 100-day MA: 42,058; 150-day MA: 42,625; 200-day MA: 42,729 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6268.56 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5535.62 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6175.64 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6246.50 triggers a sell signal @seanmdav: Biden’s White House staff and lawyers are in deep trouble for their autopen nonsense. That’s the only conclusion you can come to after reading between the lines of this ridiculous New York Times attempt to defend the unprecedented use of the autopen… There is no direct contemporaneous evidence that Biden authorized any of the last-minute autopen pardons. All NYT provides is claims from staff that he like totally said the autopen was okay and stuff. Biden’s staff admitted Biden did not authorize clemency grants and pardons for multiple named individuals. Biden’s staff admitted to changing documents Biden allegedly authorized and signing them with the autopen without getting the changes approved. One of Kavanaugh rape hoaxer Christine Blasey Ford’s attorneys works for one of the major D.C. law firms providing FREE legal services to Biden’s staffers… Also: Biden’s top White House lawyer quit due to all of the Hunter Biden shenanigans, including the ridiculous pardon he received. https://archive.is/DC4lF Biden’s pardons of the January 6th committee were signed by autopen at the direction of an assistant. Biden Says He Made the Clemency Decisions Recorded with Autopen – NY Times Donald J. Trump and his allies have begun investigations to support their claims that Joseph R. Biden Jr. was incapacitated and his staff conspired to take presidential actions in his name. “Biden did not individually approve each name for the categorical pardons… Rather than ask Biden to keep signing revised versions, his staff waited and then ran the final version thru the autopen, which they saw as…routine…” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/us/politics/biden-pardon-autopen-trump.html?referringSource=articleShare Biden chief of staff reportedly gave approval for autopen pardons on final day in office ‘I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons,’ Biden’s chief of staff Jeff Zients wrote in an email… Biden’s Chief of Staff Jeff Zients is the one who gave final approval for the use of the autopen, at least in the case of Fauci and Milley, the New York Times reported… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-chief-staff-reportedly-gave-approval-autopen-pardons-final-day-office @HansMahn>https://x.com/BreannaMorello/status/1944738309588259312 Jeffery Epstein’s accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell is ready to reveal ‘truth’ of the pedophile client list, say insiders. So, why are Republicans blocking her? Ghislaine Maxwell is willing to speak in front of Congress about The Epstein Files, sources tell Daily Mail… Maxwell argues she should have been protected from prosecution as part of a Non Prosecution Agreement made by Epstein – her former lover and boss – in 2007 when he agreed to plead guilty to two minor charges of prostitution in a ‘sweetheart deal’ which saw him spend little time behind bars… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14901591/Jeffery-Epstein-Ghislaine-Maxwell-trump-congress.html FBI opens ‘grand conspiracy’ probe on weaponization, opening door to special prosecutor The FBI has quietly launched an investigation into a decade of Democratic party and deep-state antics from Russia collusion to Jack Smith, opening the door for the appointment of a special prosecutor to examine whether the well-documented episodes amount to a criminal conspiracy to meddle in three U.S. elections to the benefit of Democrats and the detriment of President Donald Trump, Just the News has learned… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/monfbi-opens-grand-conspiracy-probe-weaponization-opening-door The Ukraine war is a U.S. war against Russia Senior figures like George Kennan, the architect of the U.S. Cold War containment strategy, described NATO expansion as “the most fateful error of U.S. policy in the post-Cold War era,” warning that it would inevitably provoke a Russian reaction. In 2008, when George W. Bush promised that Ukraine and Georgia were on a direct path to NATO membership, Angela Merkel herself warned that for Moscow, this was tantamount to a declaration of war. William Burns, then U.S. Ambassador to Russia and now CIA Director, echoed the same concern in a memo to Condoleezza Rice: “Ukraine is the reddest of red lines. Nyet means nyet.” Yet Washington, fueled by arrogance and ideological blindness, ignored these warnings. By 2021, the Biden administration rejected out of hand Russia’s December 2021 security proposals, which would have guaranteed Ukraine’s neutrality and could have averted war. Biden’s contemptuous dismissal, telling Putin that Russia had no say in NATO’s decisions, closed the last door to diplomacy… https://buymeacoffee.com/ggtv/the-nyt-finally-admitted-the-ukraine-war-u-s-war-russia?l=de When Karen Bass (LA Mayor) Went to Work in Castro’s Cuba In 1973, Bass, who’s now a potential Biden VP pick, traveled to Cuba with the Venceremos Brigade. “I didn’t have any illusions that the people in Cuba had the same freedoms I did,” she said… she’s also the only person on Biden’s list who spent part of the 1970s working construction in Fidel Castro’s Cuba with the Venceremos Brigade, a group that has organized annual trips to Cuba for young, leftist Americans for half a century… https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/karen-bass-cuba-venceremos-brigade/614662/ Karen Bass renounces her praise for Fidel Castro 8/2/2020 She told Fox host Chris Wallace that her perspective “developed over time.” Rep. Karen Bass on Sunday walked back 2016 comments praising Cuban leader Fidel Castro, as scrutiny of her views toward the Communist government threatened her potential selection as former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate… On “Fox News Sunday,“ the California Democrat faced questions about several visits to Cuba in the 1970s and a statement she released after Castro’s 2016 death saying, “the passing of the Comandante en Jefe is a great loss to the people of Cuba.” https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/02/karen-bass-fidel-castro-390413 Zohran Mamdani press conference abruptly ends with aide pulling him away during reporters questions –‘I think we’re done here,’ a campaign staffer chimed… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/zohran-mamdani-press-conference-abruptly-ends-aide-pulling-him-away-during-reporters-question @PeterSweden7: French court has ruled that all people from Gaza are eligible for asylum in France. “Common sense is not a gift; it is a punishment. Because you have to deal with everyone that doesn’t have it.” – Unknown | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
ICE Detains 361 Illegal Immigrants, Finds 14 Minors In Operation At California Marijuana Farms
Monday, Jul 14, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Administration officials on July 13 defended President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement operations, including one on a California marijuana farm last week that a worker advocacy group alleges led to a man’s death.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem told NBC News’s “Meet the Press” on July 13 that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents detained 361 illegal immigrants and encountered 14 unaccompanied minors during a July 10 operation on two marijuana farms in Southern California.
“At the California marijuana facilities, ICE and CBP law enforcement rescued at least 14 migrant children from what looks like exploitation, forced child labor, and potentially human trafficking or smuggling while facing assault and even gunfire,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement.
Among those arrested were “criminals with convictions for rape, serial burglary, hit and run and DUIs,” she added.
Both marijuana sites are operated by and licensed to Glass House Farms, which confirmed the operation and said it was fully complying with the search warrants.
United Farm Workers, a worker advocacy group, alleges that several workers were injured during the operation and reported prematurely Friday that one man died a day after he fell off a 30-foot building that he climbed. The family of Jaime Alanis, 57, later confirmed that he died Saturday.
The worker’s family created a GoFundMe page to raise funds for his family and a burial in Mexico, identifying him as Jaime Alanís.
Elizabeth Strater, national vice president of the United Farm Workers, claimed that there were U.S. citizens arrested during the operations. DHS said Monday that four U.S. citizens “are being criminally processed for assaulting or resisting officers.”
The Department of Homeland Security said its agents weren’t responsible for Alanís’s death. “Although he was not being pursued by law enforcement, this individual climbed up to the roof of a green house and fell 30 feet,” the agency stated.
Agents immediately ordered a medical evacuation, according to the department.
When asked about the death during an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union” on July 13, border czar Tom Homan said: “It’s sad. It’s unfortunate.
“He wasn’t in ICE custody, and ICE did not have hands on this person.
“But it’s always unfortunate when there’s deaths. No one wants to see people die.”
Homan said the agents were doing their job serving criminal search warrants.
“I see the media saying it was an ICE raid,” he said. “No, they were serving criminal search warrants as part of a criminal investigation involved with child trafficking, child labor. I think it was a total of 11 children that were found on that farm, and now they’re being interviewed.”
Response to Judge Ruling
On July 11, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from carrying out immigration enforcement operations and arrests in the Central District of California without probable cause.
The judge ordered the Department of Homeland Security to stop detaining people based on their race, spoken language or accent, occupation, or presence in specific locations such as bus stops.
Noem told NBC Sunday that the administration would “absolutely” comply with the court order, but denied that the Trump administration is using racial profiling when carrying out immigration enforcement search warrants.
“What we have always done is built a case and done investigative work, and who we go after and who we target. And so this judge is ridiculous in the fact that he put forward a decision like this,” Noem said.
She said the administration will appeal the ruling and that “we will win it.”
“Because over and over again, when our ICE officers are out there getting the worst of the worst off of our streets, they’re using the investigative backgrounds and information that they have from either criminal records or what they have for charges or individuals who are breaking our federal laws that need to be brought to justice,” Noem said.
On July 13, Homan told CNN that physical characteristics are one of many factors that agents could use to establish reasonable suspicion that a potential target lacks legal immigration status, and thus give probable cause to stop and detain them.
He emphasized that it can’t be the sole reason, and suggested that features such as having a visible MS-13 tattoo would be one example.
“I want to be clear about that again, because my words are taken out of context. Physical description cannot be the sole reason to detain and question somebody. That can’t be the sole reason to raise reasonable suspicion,” Homan said.
“It’s a myriad of factors, and I could stay here for the next half hour and give you all the factors.”
Aldgra Fredly, T.J. Muscaro, and Reuters contributed to this report.
end
GREG HUNTER..
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
