JULY 16/GOLD CLOSED UP $22.20 TO $3351.90 WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TO $37.87//PLATINUM WAS UP ANOTHER $38.15 TO $1417.95 AND PALLADIUM WAS UP $26.70//PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARIES TONIGHT COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL WITH GATA GOLD DISPATCHES//HOUSE PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN CHINA CAUSING A MASSIVE HEADACHE FOR THE PBOC//CHINA EXPORTS THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RARE EARTHS LAST MONTH/SPAIN UNDERGOES MASSIVE RIOTS AFTER CITIZEN BEATEN BY A MIGRANT//ISRAEL VS IRAN UPDATES/SYRIA UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY UPDATES/MARK CRISPIN MILLER/NEWS ADDICTS/NEWSWIZE ETC//OIL UPDATES//BRICS UPDATES/USA DATA RELEASES/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 1 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 100 102 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 18 3 709 C BARCLAYS 27 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 3 905 C ADM 12
TOTAL: 133 133 MONTH TO DATE: 9,005
JPMORGTAN STOPPED 102/137
JULY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 133 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 13,300 OZ or 0.4136 TONNES
total notices so far: 9005 contracts for 900,500 OR 28.009 tonnes)
FOR JULY
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SILVER NOTICES: 192 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.960 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 8,691 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 43.450 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $22.20 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.09 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ///A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV///
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.632 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 2194 CONTRACTS TO 171,474 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.65 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BASE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1194 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD STRONG LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $36.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $36.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $37.78 . WE HAVE ANOTHER MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE AT 1005 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT STILL SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 38.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 1055 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TODAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1194 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.65.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 1055 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.65) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A LOSS OF 1194 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ALL OF THAT LOSS WAS DUE TO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION./
WE HAD A 1000 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 34.730 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 425,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 44.530 MILLION OZ
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY: 44.530 MILLION OZ INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 615 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1055 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 42 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAY(S), total 6459contracts: OR 32.295 MILLION OZ (587 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 32.295 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 32.295 MILLION OZ
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RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2194 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.65 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 1000 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1000 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 4 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 44.530 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (1055 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE IN WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AND BEYOND!
WE HAD 192 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.96 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5059 OI CONTRACTS TO 448,531 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 1745 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (5059 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $20.80 IN PRICE// TUESDAY///.
LAST THREE MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0.404 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 29.035 TONNES STANDING
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1523 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 448,531 /NOW STILL AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 171,474 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3536 CONTRACTS WITH 5059 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1523 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3536 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 950 CONTRACTS
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(1523) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 5059 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3536 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JULY AT 17.947 TONNES COUPLED WITH TODAY’S 0.404 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 29.035 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JULY CONTRACT AT 29.035 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAVE 1)A $20.80 COMEX PRICE LOSS. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 3536 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR TAS SPREADERS // /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (1523 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 950 T.A.S.CONTRACTS WHICH COMPLETES OUR 5 DAYS OF MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES ENDING MONDAY.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,746 CONTRACTS OR 1,974,600 OZ OR 61.418TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1795 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 61.418 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 61.418 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.74% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 61.418 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 2194 CONTRACTS OI TO 171,516 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1000 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1000 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1000 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2152 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1000 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1194 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.65 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.97 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.22 PTS OR 0.03%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 72.36 PTS OR 0.29%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 14.62 PTS OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.66%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1780 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1812/ Oil UP TO 66.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.49 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1780 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1812 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 5059 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 448,531 OI WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $20.80 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1523 ). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //TUESDAY TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL.
THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES.
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 0
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3536 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE IN JANUARY THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER FINALLY ENDS OUR MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE. AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A MUCH MUCH LOWER 950 T.A.S CONTRACTS THAN MONDAY;’S ISSUANCE OF 22,678. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. HOWEVER JULY IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.404 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 29.035 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 29.035 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 10+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1523 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 2000 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1523 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY
ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE BUT MUCH SMALLER 950 CONTRACTS AND THUS OUR 5 MEGA MEGA T.A.S ISSUANCES HAS NOW ENDED.
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE TUESDAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING TUESDAY WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE!
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0.404 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 29/035 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY 20.80/ /) BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE AN FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////TUESDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE MEGA MEGA T.A.S. ISSUANCES, TUESDAY TRADING , IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS. SO FAR FOR THE WEEK, THEY ONLY SUCCEEDED YESTERDAY WITH THE LOWERING OF GOLD’S PRICE ADVANCE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 10.99 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 13,000 OZ OR 0.404 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 29.035 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $20.80
WE HAD 1745 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3536 CONTRACTS OR 353,600 0Z (11.99 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9005 notices 900,500 oz 28.009 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entry
i) Into Malca 48,869.520 oz (1520 kilobars)
total deposit 48,869.520 oz
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customer withdrawal
0 entries
adjustments: 2 dealer to customer
a)dealer to customer Brinks 289.359 oz( 9 kilobars)
b) dealer to customer Delaware 6,351.559 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 463 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 824 CONTRACTS. ON TUESDAY WE HAD 954 NOTICES FILED, SO WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 130 CONTRACTS OR 13,000 OZ (0.404 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD
AUGUST LOST 11,025 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 230,926 AS AUGUST BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT’S OI IS VERY HIGH AND NOT CONTRACTING ENOUGH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HIGH NUMBER OF TONNES STANDING.
SEPT GAINED 49 CONTRACTS TO 1570
We had 133 contracts filed for today representing 13,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 100 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 133 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 102 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9005 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (463 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (133 x 100 oz per contract) equals 933,500 OZ OR 29/035 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 29/035 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (9005 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (463 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (133 x 100 oz) which equals 933,500 OZ OR 29.035 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 29.035 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 29.035 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 195.579 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 497.191 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 407 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 185 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 270 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 85 CONTRACTS OR 425,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST LOST 125 CONTRACTS TO 2467 AS THIS MONTH BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER
SEPTEMBER LOST 2730 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 128,311 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:192 or 0.960 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 62,265 good//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8691 X5,000 oz = 43.450 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (407) AND the number of notices served upon today (192 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (8691) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(407) minus number of notices served upon today (192)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 44.530 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 44.530 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 195.579 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/497.181 million. 42.25%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 947.64 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 477.632 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JOHN RUBINO
CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Stupid move!
Ghana moves to hedge gold export prices to protect growth of reserves
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-07-15 20:32 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Moses Mozart Dzawu Bloomberg News via Mining Weekly, Bedfordview, South Africa Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Ghana is working on a programme to hedge the price of gold exports as it seeks to shield earnings that have bolstered the central bank’s foreign reserves from future volatility, Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama said.
Increased production and higher prices have helped Africa’s top gold miner to boost gross international reserves to $11.1-billion, Asiama said today in the capital, Accra. The buffer is enough to cover 4.8 months of imports, he said.
“While beneficial for now, a future correction in prices could quickly narrow our trade surplus,” Asiama said.
Ghana’s gold exports increased by 76% from a year earlier to $5.2 billion in the first four months through April. That has underpinned a widening in the trade surplus to $4.1 billion from $759 million over this period. …
Cyrille Jubert: China and the revaluation of precious metals
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-07-14 13:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Cyrille Jubert GoldBroker, London Monday, July 14, 2025
Remember the cycles of the mining industry.
For multiple reasons,the price of extracted ore tends to fall, particularly due to competition. Thus, as a mine is operated, the metal content generally decreases, reducing its profitability until the company decides to close it. There are therefore periods during which the extraction of a particular metal is no longer profitable, leading to a sharp drop in production, and then, gradually, a shortage.
For precious metals, to mask the erosion of the purchasing power of currencies, prices were long tightly regulated, first by specialized administrations, then by groups of central banks, such as the London Gold Pool until 1968. Subsequently, a banking cartel continued to manipulate the prices of gold and silver through various means. Among these, Comex futures contracts were a major tool, allowing traders to trade huge volumes of metals without ever demanding delivery.
Since 2004 this cartel has been implementing exchange-traded funds, allowing anyone to buy shares with a simple click, giving investors the false impression of acquiring gold or silver without having to worry about custody or insurance.
But this was merely an illusion. In reality the investor’s cash flow wasn’t necessarily used to acquire physical metal; it could even be used, depending on the cartel’s interests, to bet against the rise of gold or silver.
This type of financial product is collectively referred to as “paper gold” or “paper silver.” These substitutes have grown so widespread that, according to the U.S. Debt Clock, there are approximately 134 ounces of paper gold for every ounce of physical gold, and 364 ounces of paper silver for every ounce of physical silver. …
Barrick may sell its last Canadian gold mine to Discovery Silver
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-07-15 20:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jacob Lorinc and Paula Sambo Bloomberg News Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Barrick Mining Corp. is in advanced talks to sell its last Canadian gold mine to Discovery Silver Corp., according to people familiar with the matter, as the firms seek to capitalize on the soaring price of the precious metal.
Discovery Silver is in the final stages of a process Barrick launched in April to sell the Hemlo gold mine in Ontario, according to the people, who asked not to be named.
There’s no certainty the deliberations will lead to a transaction, the people said.
Barrick and Discovery, both based in Toronto, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. …
Mongolia’s central bank joins the international gold price management scheme
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-07-14 12:54 Section: Daily Dispatches
12:52p ET Monday, July 14, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In an essay posted today by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, two officials of Mongolia’s central bank report that the bank considers gold to be international money, is managing its gold reserves separately from the rest of its foreign exchange reserves, and admit that the bank is working with other central banks and London Bullion Market Association banks to help manage the gold price.
The officials, bank reserve managers Tuvshingerel Tumenbayar and Azjargal Amarsaikhan, write: “Our trading team closely monitors key macroeconomic and financial market indicators that reflect international policy developments and associated risks. Additionally, we focus on enhancing our capacity to manage gold in both allocated and unallocated forms, working in collaboration with the London Bullion Market Association clearing banks and central banks.”
Of course “unallocated” gold is metal that, in the hands of central banks and their bullion bank agents, tends not to exist and is used to deceive markets into thinking that supply is much greater than it is and that higher prices aren’t warranted.
Tumenbayar and Amarsaikhan conclude: “The Bank of Mongolia is strengthening its commitment to responsible gold reserve management, promoting economic stability, and ensuring that Mongolia’s gold reserves meet the highest global standards for quality, ethics, and transparency.”
As the bank may discover eventually, if it doesn’t already know, those “global standards” for gold are not really very high in regard to ethics and transparency. Maybe the bank can do better over time.
The essay by Tumenbayar and Amarsaikhan is headlined “Gold is Mongolia’s Natural Reserve Strategy” and is posted at OMFIF here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org.
end
Brien Lundin: This is the year for metals, and the New Orleans Investment Conf.
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-07-16 13:30 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Brien Lundin Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities New Orleans Investment Conference Wednesday, July 16, 2025
This year’s New Orleans Investment Conference is coming up quickly — and the excitement over the metals and mining markets adds more urgency than usual for those hoping to attend.
Our registrations for this year are already well ahead of anything we’ve seen for many years, and I expect a bustling crowd that could eat up our entire hotel room block.
Everyone seems to understand that the most rewarding place to be in a metals and mining bull market is the New Orleans Conference — something that has been driven home time and again over the last five decades.
Adding to the allure of this year’s event is another stellar speaker roster. It’s still evolving, but so far we’ve lined up:
— Matt Taibbi, Rick Rule, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Brent Johnson, George Gammon, Peter Boockvar, Jim Iuorio, Dave Collum, Peter Schiff, Adrian Day, Adam Taggart, Robert Prechter, Robert Helms, and Russ Gray.
Also:
— Mark Skousen, Lobo Tiggre, Nick Hodge, Brent Cook, Chris Powell, Dana Samuelson, Rich Checkan, Thom Calandra, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Omar Ayales, Bill Murphy, Gerardo Del Real, Steve Hochberg, Albert Lu, Lindsay Hall, Andy Schectman, and many more, including yours truly.
The New Orleans Conference is always the investment event of the year. But considering that this is a generational opportunity in metals and miners, this is the most exciting moment we have seen for the sector in decades.
New Orleans will be the place to be and, as always, you’ve got our satisfaction guarantee backing up your decision to attend. If you’re not satisfied that the value we offer is worth many times your costs to attend, we’ll refund every cent of your registration fee. No questions asked.
But over the decades that we’ve offered this guarantee, I can count on one hand the number of times we have refunded anyone’s fee.
That’s because we strive to deliver far more value, more bottom-line return on investment than any other event.
And thousands of returning investors over the years attest that we deliver that value.
Again, this is a special year, and registrations could swamp our hotel room block. I strongly recommend that you act now to secure your place by clicking on this link —
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 14.62 PTS OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.66%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1780 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1812/ Oil UP TO 66.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.49 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1780 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1812 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1780 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1812 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.22 PTS OR 0.03%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 72.36 PTS OR 0.29%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 14.62 PTS OR 0.04%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.21/ EURO RISES TO 1.1621 UP 14 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.571//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.80…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7170/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.604 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.332%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.428
3j Gold at $3340.25 Silver at: 37.97 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 6 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.01
3m oil (WTI) into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.66// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.571% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8013 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9314 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.488 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.015 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.953 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.26
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6650 UP 6 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.604 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.140 UP 1/2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Tariffs, Earnings And Rising Yields Dent Sentiment
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 07:34 AM
US equity futures and global stocks dropped, but were well off session lows, as a stream of negative tariff headlines and dialed-back expectations for interest-rate cuts prompted doubts about the market’s ability to sustain recent highs and sent 30Y yields above 5%, a level seen as a redline for further stock appreciation. As of 7:00am, the S&P 500 was on track for a second straight decline, with futures down 0.1% after , while Nasdaq futures were 0.3% lower after closing at a record; the small-caps Russell 2000 is seeing an early outperformance bid. Pre-mkt, Mag7/semis are mixed as are Cyclicals with Banks seeing an offer into the next batch of earnings. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2%, weighed down by technology shares as ASML Holding NV trimmed its growth outlook for next year, citing trade tensions; French car giant Renault slumped 16% after slashing its profit guidance. Treasury yields are flat as is the USD. Commodities are mostly higher with Ags leading, precious metals following while energy is modestly weaker. Today’s macro data focus is the PPI data which will give more clues about how tariffs are affecting companies after mixed CPI numbers. We have another batch of Fedspeakers who will say nothing of importance.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Apple +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Meta +0.3%, Microsoft little changed, Tesla -0.4%, Amazon -0.5%, Nvidia -0.6%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Crypto-linked stocks rose with Bitcoin prices in premarket trading Wednesday as President Donald Trump said the House will pass the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill on Wednesday after a procedural vote Tuesday failed (Among gainers Strategy +1.5%, Circle Internet Group +1.6%, Coinbase +0.8%, Galaxy Digital +4.1%, Hut 8 +2.3%, Hive Digital Technologies +0.7%, MARA Holdings +1.8%, Cleanspark +1.8%, Riot Platforms +2.1%, Cipher Mining +0.5%, Bitfarms +2.9%, Terawulf +1.6%, Bit Digital +6.4%, SharpLink Gaming +13%, and Bitdeer Technologies +2.6%).
ASML ADRs (ASML) fall 8.4% after the chip equipment maker struck a more cautious tone about growth outlook next year.
JB Hunt reported 2Q earnings that beat estimates, but flagged “higher professional driver wages and equipment-related costs.”
Brighthouse Financial (BHF) is up 7.4% on light volume after the Wall Street Journal said Aquarian is in exclusive talks to buy the provider of annuities and life insurance, citing people familiar.
Global Payments (GPN) is up 6.4%; activist investor Elliott Investment Management has amassed a sizable position in payments services company, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
Renault SA shares sank 16% after the automaker lowered its profitability outlook for the year and named company veteran Duncan Minto interim chief executive officer.
Nvidia Corp. boss Jensen Huang anticipates getting the first batch of US licenses to export H20 AI chips to China soon.
Barclays Plc was fined £42 million ($56 million) over failures to properly identify financial crime risks with two clients.
Huawei Technologies Co. took the top spot in China’s smartphone market for the first time in more than four years.
Among trade headlines, Trump said he was likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals as soon as the end of the month and that levies on chips could come soon as well. Traders further pared bets to their lowest level in a month for two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year on anticipation that tariff-related costs are increasingly being passed on to consumers (a continuation of a bet that has so far been dead wrong). Elsewhere, EU’s McGrath says a trade deal between the EU and US can be done by Aug. 1 and expects two weeks of “intense negotiations.” Meanwhile, UBS strategists said US equity investors are complacent in their view that tariffs are predominantly a negotiation tool. They put their S&P 500 year-end target of 5,300 – some 1000 lower than where the S&P is trading now – under review.
Traders trimmed expectations for Fed rate cuts after the CPI data, but the main Fed focus today is on who may replace Powell. Kevin Hassett is the early frontrunner, Bloomberg reported, with Kevin Warsh also in the top two. The Trump administration is also said to be finalizing an executive order that would pave the way for 401(k) retirement savings plans to invest in private equity.
After big bank earnings got off to an underwhelming start on Tuesday, investors will be looking at the next flurry of results with Bank of American Corp., Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reporting today. “We have toned down our risk by a notch,” said Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. “However, technicals are still supportive and news flow of more deals being struck over the coming weeks should offset some of the negative trade rhetoric.”
US stocks are back to near-historic premiums over global peers, but bargain hunters must also work harder to find options outside the world’s biggest market, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The S&P 500 now trades at a 55% forward P/E premium to the Bloomberg Global ex-US Index, more than double the roughly 25% median from 2015-19.
Economic data due later Wednesday is expected to show a similar trend for producer goods. “The tariff inflation shock starts to hit,” wrote Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief currency strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “This effect will keep building in intensity as pre-tariff inventories are depleted.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%, falling for a fourth straight session after some disappointing corporate updates from the region. Autos are leading declines as Renault shares fall 17% after the French carmaker issued a profit warning. Technology stocks also underperform as ASML shares fall 8% in Amsterdam after the CEO walked back the company’s growth forecast for next year due to trade disputes and global tensions. Equities have struggled to hit new highs in recent weeks amid lingering uncertainty around the US trade war. Among notable moves, Richemont rises on better-than-expected sales, defying a wider downturn for luxury goods. Renault shares tumble after a profit warning. Here are some of the more notable equity movers:
Richemont shares rise as much as 2.4% after the Cartier-owner reported surging sales at its jewelry division despite a tough backdrop for the luxury goods industry.
Partners Group climbs as much as 7.3%, after the Swiss private equity company delivers a beat on assets under management in the first half and reiterates its outlook for the full year.
Barco shares surge as much as 17%, hitting the highest since April 2024, following the visualization specialist’s first-half Ebitda beat.
ASML shares fall as much as 7.3%, the most in three months, after the chip equipment maker cautioned about growth next year.
Renault shares fall as much as 17%, the steepest drop since March 2020, after the French carmaker issued a profit warning on Tuesday evening, lowering operating margin guidance for this year and also trimming its free cash flow expectations.
AstraZeneca shares drop as much as 1.6%, after its experimental drug for a rare plasma cell disorder failed to delay death or reduce the number of hospitalizations for heart problems.
Ontex shares plunge as much as 12%, after the maker of disposable personal hygiene products delivered quarterly results below expectations and cut its full-year earnings outlook.
Bakkafrost falls as much as 14%, the most since July 2023, after the seafood group issued a profit warning.
Nel falls as much as 8.1%, the most since May, after the hydrogen technology supplier reported a sharp fall in new orders in the second quarter. Citi said weak order intake is a continued concern.
Fuchs shares plunge as much as 16%, the biggest drop since 2011, as the lubricant maker cut its annual guidance after second-quarter profit came in lower than expected.
DNO shares drop as much as 8.1% after the oil producer said it has temporarily suspended operations at its Tawke license in the Kurdistan region of Iraq following three explosions early this morning.
Svenska Handelsbanken declines as much as 8%, the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after net interest income at the Nordic lender missed analysts estimates for the second quarter.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed, as gains in Hong Kong and optimism over the tech sector were countered by dimming prospects for Federal Reserve easing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.1%. Key gauges declined in Australia and South Korea, while shares rose in Taiwan as well as Hong Kong. TSMC and Alibaba climbed for a second day after news that the US would allow resumption of some AI chip shipments to China. The regional benchmark has traded sideways in July after a three-month rally. Broader sentiment took a hit Wednesday after US consumer price data indicated companies are beginning to pass through some tariff-related costs, with Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan saying. Hong Kong stocks advanced meanwhile, with the Hang Seng Index heading for its highest close since February 2022 on a rebound in risk appetite amid signs of easing US-China tensions. Still, upcoming Chinese corporate results are expected to show weak earnings growth.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The euro outperforms its G-10 peers slightly with a 0.2% gain. The pound fades post-CPI gains, trading flat versus the greenback just below $1.34.
In rates, Treasuries are steady ahead of more US inflation data later on Wednesday in the form of producer prices. US 10-year yields are flat at 4.48%. Japan’s super-long bonds rebounded following a sharp selloff earlier in the week, as investors weighed the potential for increased fiscal spending after this weekend’s upper house election. Gilts fall along the curve after UK inflation unexpectedly rose to its highest level since January 2024, prompting traders to trim bets on easing by the Bank of England this year. UK 10-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.65%. Bunds are little changed.
In commodities, spot gold rises $16 to around $3,340/oz. Bitcoin climbs 2% and back above $119,000. WTI falls 0.5% to near $66.20 a barrel.
Today’s US economic data slate includes June PPI and July New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and June industrial production (9:15am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8am), Hammack (9:15am), Barr (10am), Bostic (3:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm), and Fed releases Beige book at 2pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
DAX +0.2%
CAC 40 little changed
10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.48%
VIX unchanged at 17.38
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1206.71
euro +0.2% at $1.162
WTI crude -0.3% at $66.32/barrel
Top Overnight News
Trump said on Tuesday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could be a candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but suggested that might not happen. When asked if Powell’s renovation cost overrun were a fire able offense, Trump said “I think it sort of is.” RTRS
President Donald Trump said he was likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals as soon as the end of the month and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well, suggesting that those import taxes could hit alongside broad “reciprocal” rates set for implementation on Aug. 1. BBG
Kevin Hassett, one of President Donald Trump’s longest-serving economic aides, is the early frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chief next year, followed by Kevin Warsh. BBG
Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help open up 401(k)s to private-market investments, according to WSJ.
Senator Cassidy said President Trump is to sign Fentanyl Act into law on Wednesday.
Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered the release of 2000 National Guard troops from the federal protection mission in LA.
Japan’s super-long bonds rose, reversing course after a rout earlier in the week over concern that this weekend’s election will result in higher government spending. BBG
Rio Tinto’s macro commentary on the Chinese economy – “industrial activity and net exports grew strongly during the quarter on the back of China’s highly competitive manufacturing sector. Trade diversification continued as the decline in exports to the US was more than offset by shipments to other regions. Retail sales growth was supported by ongoing stimulus measures while the government remains committed to infrastructure investment. However, headwinds such as trade tensions and a soft property market continue to pose challenges.”
Indonesia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 5.25% (analysts were split on the outcome of this meeting, with some anticipating a cut while others felt rates would stay unchanged). WSJ
ASML (-7.3% in pre) walked back growth forecasts for next year due to the trade uncertainty, even as its second-quarter orders beat estimates. The stock slumped. BBG
Inflation unexpectedly rose in the U.K., likely keeping policymakers at the BOE cautious despite a limping economy. Headline, core, and services CPI all were higher than anticipated. WSJ
Taiwan, Switzerland and India, none of which received letters letters from Trump last week, are all potentially closing in on deals that could be announced in the coming weeks. Politico
Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down and she wants to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced, while she added that June CPI data suggests PCE inflation, which the Fed targets at 2%, will rise. Logan also commented that softer inflation and a weakening labor market could call for lower rates fairly soon and under the base case, the Fed can sustain maximum employment even with modestly restrictive policy.
Trade/Tariffs
US President Trump they are working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.
US President Trump said pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be low, while Trump also said they will release tariff letters for smaller countries soon and will probably set one tariff for all of them over 10%.
US President Trump said a great deal for everybody was just made with Indonesia with Indonesia to pay 19%, while the US will pay nothing and similar deals are in the works. Trump later posted that “Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 Billion Dollars in U.S. Energy, $4.5 Billion Dollars in American Agricultural Products, and 50 Boeing Jets, many of them 777’s.”
US Trade Representative announced the initiation of a Section 301 investigation of Brazil’s unfair trading practices.
China’s Commerce Ministry said China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St owing to an acceleration in US CPI data, while trade uncertainty lingered after President Trump suggested pharma tariffs could begin at month-end and tariff letters for smaller countries could be sent out soon. ASX 200 retreated with nearly all sectors in the red aside from tech and with miners not helped by the indecisive performance in Rio Tinto following its quarterly operations update in which it registered higher iron ore production but a decline in shipments Y/Y. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively in which the index swung between gains and losses amid the lack of pertinent drivers for Japan and some political concerns ahead of Sunday’s upper house election as a recent poll showed the ruling bloc was at risk of losing its majority. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed in the absence of any major fresh pertinent macro drivers and despite comments from China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng who stated that China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and is stepping up efforts to boost consumption.
Top Asian News
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and its industrial upgrading providing support to global industrial and supply chain operations, while He added China is stepping up efforts to boost consumption.
Japan’s ruling coalition risks losing a majority at the upper house election, according to Nikkei.
European bourses opened mixed/mostly lower, but have traded with an upward bias throughout the European morning, to show a mixed picture. European sectors are mixed, with underperformance in Autos, dragged lower by post-earning losses in Renault (-16.4%) after it cut guidance; Stellantis (-4%) also moves lower after it halted its hydrogen fuel cell technology development programme. Tech has also been pressured by ASML (-8.7%) after its Q2 results; the Co. reported better-than-expected headline metrics, but guidance was light and the CEO said they cannot confirm growth in 2026.
Top European News
BoE Governor Bailey said multilateral institutions are essential for good policymaking and they are following financial stability risks closely, while he noted countries with big deficits typically come under most financial market pressure and he is yet to be convinced about the need for a retail CBDC.
European earnings
ASML -8.7%: Lowered Q3 rev., margin outlook, does not confirm 2026 growth target.
Renault -16.2%: Provided dreary FY guidance, stressed poor retail market.
Rio Tinto +1.2%: Pilbara iron ore output rise, copper production exp. at top of FY guidance.
Richemont +0.5%: Q1 sales at constant FX rise.
Sandvik -0.9%: mixed results, noted of strong momentum noted in mining, highest order intake ever in Q2
FX
The dollar is giving back some of Tuesday’s gains seen in the aftermath of US CPI data. Further inflation data is due today with Y/Y PPI expected to decline to 2.5% from 2.6%, M/M is expected to pick up to 0.2% from 0.1%. Once released, markets will be able to cement calls for the upcoming PCE report (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). Today’s Fed docket is a busy one with Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams all due on deck. Note, the Fed Beige Book at 19:00BST will be parsed for the impact of Trump’s tariff regime at a regional level. DXY sits towards the top end of Tuesday’s 97.97-98.69 range.
EUR is attempting to atone for Tuesdays’ losses, which saw EUR/USD slip onto a 1.15 handle for the first time since 25th June. French politics moved back into focus yesterday after PM Bayrou unveiled his plans to bolster France’s finances. His outline was subsequently met with threats of no confidence from the hard left and far right. EUR/USD sits towards the bottom end of Tuesday’s 1.1593-1.1692 range.
JPY flat vs. the USD after a recent run of losses, which have lifted USD/JPY from the low seen on July 1st at 142.68 to a multi-month high today at 149.18. The main drivers for the move have been a broad pick-up in the USD and angst over the lack of trade progress between Japan and the US. The next upside level for USD/JPY comes via the 3rd April high at 149.33.
GBP has seen some mild support in the wake of hotter-than-expected UK inflation metrics. Y/Y CPI unexpectedly advanced to 3.6% from 3.4% (exp. 3.4%) and the services metric held steady at 4.7% vs. expectations of a decline to 4.6%. Nonetheless, markets still expect the BoE to cut rates next month, but US Jobs data will be in focus on Thursday. Whilst Cable did briefly make its way back onto a 1.34 handle with a session high at 1.3416, the upside was limited by the aforementioned stagflationary outlook facing the UK.
Antipodeans are slightly mixed vs. the USD with no obvious driver for the mild discrepancy. Newsflow surrounding both currencies remains light as markets await tomorrow’s Australian jobs report.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1526 vs exp. 7.1914 (Prev. 7.1498)
Fixed Income
USTs are incrementally firmer/flat (whilst global peers are broadly lower). Currently in a in a very thin 110-08+ to 111-13+ band, awaiting PPI, Industrial Production and Fed speak. PPI will be scoured to see if the series’ internals are evident of tariff-driven price pressures emerging; a slew of Fed speakers are also due.
Bunds are modestly lower today, but well off lows in a 129.19-56 band, matching Tuesday’s trough ahead of the 129.12 low from last Friday. The main event today for the bloc is the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) presentation, i.e. the bloc’s budget for the next seven years. As it stands, Commission President von der Leyen is scheduled to unveil it at 16:00BST.
OATs are trading broadly in-line with peers, down by a handful of ticks. In French politics, PM Bayrou’s plan to save EUR 43.8bln from the budget in 2026 in order to get the debt-to-GDP ratio down, in-line with existing commitments/targets. The proposal has already drawn criticism from various political parties, unsurprisingly National Rally (RN) has said they will move to censure Bayrou if he does not change his plans.
Gilts are underperforming, opened lower by 19 ticks and then slipped another 21 in short order to a 91.17 base. Notching a new WTD low and taking Gilts back to 91.16 from the first week of June. If breached, then we look to 90.11 from May as the next major point of support. Pressure emerged on the morning’s June inflation. A hotter-than-expected series, driven by motor fuel prices. While hotter, the series has only sparked a relatively modest move in BoE pricing with c. 1bps of implied easing removed from August and only around 3bps by end-2025.
UK DMO sells GBP 1.5bln 4.5% 2034 Gilt: b/c 3.32x, average yield 4.553%, tail 0.4bps.
Germany sells EUR 1.129bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 and EUR 0.8bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 1.25% 2048 Bunds
Commodities
WTI and Brent are currently incrementally lower, and have held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Brent Sept’25 has traded in a very tight USD 68.46-69.09/bbl range, and ultimately awaiting US PPI.
Precious metals are mixed with Palladium a little lower whilst spot Gold and Silver post modest gains. Newsflow has been relatively light today and Dollar price-action has been muted. The yellow-metal is seemingly attempting to pare back losses seen in the prior session. XAU/USD currently trades in a USD 3,325.21-3,342.49/oz range, with the low for today incrementally above its 50 DMA (3,323.42)
Base metals are broadly lower continuing the downbeat mood seen overnight, in-fitting with the broader risk tone across the equities complex. 3M LME Copper currently trades towards the lower end of a USD 9,613.1-9,663/t range.
US Private Sector Inventory data showed (bbls) crude +0.8mln (exp. -0.6mln), gasoline +1.9mln (-1.0mln), distillate +0.8mln (+0.2mln), according to Reuters citing sources.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has temporarily shut in production at the Shaikan field (capacity approx. 55k BPD) following reports over the past two days of explosions at several nearby oil fields.
Geopolitics: Middle East
US President Trump’s administration asked Israel to stop its strikes on Syrian military forces in the south of the country, while Israel promised that it would cease the attacks on Tuesday evening, according to a US official cited by Axios.
US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM today to discuss negotiations over Gaza’s ceasefire deal and are expected to discuss efforts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran to reach a new nuclear agreement, according to Axios.
US, France and Germany agreed that Iran faces stiff sanctions if there is no deal by the end of August, according to Axios.
Foreign tanker reportedly seized by Iran for ‘smuggling’ 2mln litres of fuel, according to SNN.
Iranian Parliament issues statement saying negotiations with US cannot begin until preconditions are met, according to ISNA
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US President Trump said weapons are already being shipped to Ukraine and NATO will pay them back for everything and won’t have boots on the ground, while he added that Iran wants to talk but he is in no rush to talk with Iran.
Russia’s Kremlin says subject of weapon supplies to Ukraine is high on agenda, via Ifax; phone call with US President Trump not planned but can be organised quickly, via Tass.
US Event Calendar
7:00 am: Jul 11 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 9.4%
8:30 am: Jun PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
8:30 am: Jun PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
8:30 am: Jun PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%
8:30 am: Jun PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 3%
9:15 am: Jun Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%
9:15 am: Jun Capacity Utilization, est. 77.4%, prior 77.4%
Central Banks
8:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech in Westminister, MD
9:15 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Community Development
10:00 am: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Financial Regulation
2:00 pm: Fed Releases Beige Book
3:30 pm: Fed’s Bostic Appears on Fox Business Network
6:30 pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Economic Outlook, Policy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from Berlin. I was at an important dinner last night in this beautiful city and got a phone call from my wife. I said I was at a work dinner and could I call her back later. Before I could finish she said. “It’s an emergency. I have five nine-year-old girls over for a sleepover specifically to see the new Zombies 4 film just released. They’ve all been waiting three years for this day (since Zombies 3) and I can’t get into our Disney+ account. Do you know the password?” I had to make my excuses to leave the table and go through my phone to desperately try to find it. Thankfully I did and the world could move on.
Meanwhile, markets have struggled to move on from the debate as to how inflationary the US tariff policy will be with yesterday’s US CPI providing something for everyone on this topic. On the one hand, the core CPI print was below expectations for a 5th consecutive month, and the S&P 500 even moved up to an intraday record at the open. But as investors digested the print and focused on the more obvious tariff impacts in the various components, Treasuries extended their decline and the 30yr yield (+4.3bps) moved back above the 5% mark again (closing at 5.02%). It’s previously closed above 5% for only 9 days since 2007. 6 days were during the issuance- and Fed-driven Treasury sell-off in autumn 2023, and 3 days were back in May this year after the Moody’s downgrade and amid increased focus on the implications of the Republican budget bill that was passing through the House.
In terms of the details of the print, monthly CPI came in at +0.29% in June (vs. +0.3% expected), which was a 5-month high but broadly in line with expectations. Moreover, the core CPI measure was a comparatively softer +0.23% (vs. +0.3% expected), which eased fears that this month would see a big jump thanks to the tariffs. However, there were some concerning signs under the surface, and household appliances (+1.9%) saw their biggest monthly price jump in records back to 1999. And if you looked at core goods (excluding used cars and trucks) there was a decent +0.32% monthly gain that was the strongest since February 2023. So the fear is that as the tariff impact is more fully felt (with plenty more in the pipeline), those increases could become more widespread across the consumer basket. Indeed, those concerns were clear in market pricing too, and the 2yr US inflation swap (+2.0bps) moved up to a fresh two-year high of 2.97%. Watch out for PPI today and importantly the usual read through to those categories that directly feed into core PCE. Our economists are tracking +0.30% for the PPI print after yesterday’s data (see their CPI reaction note for more).
That growing pessimism on inflation meant investors dialled back their expectations for rate cuts this year. They are now pricing in a rate cut by September as only a 58% probability, down from 65% the day before. And for the year as a whole, investors now see just 44bps of rate cuts by the December meeting, down from 48bps the day before. That said, there was another round of calls for rate cuts from President Trump, who posted afterwards that the “Fed should cut Rates by 3 Points. Very Low Inflation. One Trillion Dollars a year would be saved!!!” But there was no such urgency in the limited Fedspeak following the CPI print, with Boston Fed President Collins saying that “an ‘actively patient’ approach to monetary policy remains appropriate”. And for markets, the prospect of fewer rate cuts and more inflation helped to push Treasury yields higher across the curve. So the 2yr yield (+4.1bps) was up to 3.94%, the 10yr yield (+4.8bps) hit a one-month high of 4.48%, and the 30yr yield (+4.3bps) closed above 5% for the first time since May 23rd, at 5.02%.
The hawkish implications from the CPI print meant that most equities struggled. The S&P 500 fell by -0.40% in a very broad-based decline that saw 453 stocks lose ground, which was the largest number of decliners in eight weeks. Indeed, the only S&P sector to advance was information technology (+1.27%), which was led by a +4.04% gain for Nvidia, as the chipmaker reached a new all-time high after news the previous evening that it would resume AI chip deliveries to China. The boost for tech stocks meant that the NASDAQ (+0.18%) hit another all-time high, having now surged by +35.4% since its closing low just after Liberation Day. By contrast, banks were among the underperformers after earnings from several US financials, with the KBW Bank Index falling -2.42%. Wells Fargo (-5.48%) and BlackRock (-5.88%) saw sizeable slumps after missing estimates, with JPMorgan (-0.74%) falling back more modestly after their release. On the other hand, Citigroup (+3.68%) rose to its highest since 2008 after beating revenue estimates and announcing increased stock buybacks. S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures are both down by -0.15% this morning.
Elsewhere, the tariff deadline on August 1 remains in focus, although it’s clear that markets aren’t pricing in a full bounceback in the tariffs yet, with the expectation that further trade deals or delays will avoid that outcome. Speaking of which, Trump announced yesterday that he had reached a deal with Indonesia. This will see goods from Indonesia facing US tariffs of 19%, above the 10% interim tariff over the past three months but clearly below the 32% the country faced under the initial Liberation Day tariffs on April 2. Trump later posted that Indonesia also agreed to buy $15bn in US energy, $4.5bn of agricultural products and 50 Boeing jets. Boeing’s shares briefly rallied on the news but were back in the red (-0.22%) by the close. Trump also added that “Transshipment from a higher Tariff Country” via Indonesia would face additional tariffs.
Asian equity markets are mostly lower with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.92%) leading the way after nearing record highs earlier this week. Additionally, the KOSPI (-0.86%), the CSI (-0.33%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.13%) are also lower. The Hang Seng (+0.28%) is bucking the regional trend, continuing its strong gains from the previous session, buoyed by NVIDIA’s announcement that it will be resuming H20 AI chip sales to China. The Nikkei (+0.55%) is being helped by a Yen at its weakest since April and a JGB rally at the long-end with 30 and 40yr yields -3bps and -8bps, respectively, after yesterday’s slump. 10yr JGBs are +1.5bps, likely catching up with yesterday’s global sell-off that saw the 10yr yield hit its highest intraday level since 2008, and the 30yr yield move to its highest intraday level since that maturity was first issued in 1999. I wrote about this more in my chart of the day yesterday (link here ), and our FX strategists also have a new podcast on the political and policy choices facing Japan and the market impact on the yen. You can listen to it on Spotify here or the DB Research website here. It’s a timely discussion before the Upper House election on Sunday.
Back in Europe, the tone was more downbeat yesterday, with equities losing ground across the continent. That included a 3rd consecutive decline for the STOXX 600 (-0.37%), and a 4th consecutive decline for the DAX (-0.42%). However, sovereign bond yields did move off their highs from the previous day, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-2.0bps) all moving lower. That outperformance for OATs came as French PM Bayrou proposed some €44bn of measures to reduce the deficit, including ending two public holidays on Easter Monday and VE Day. The leader of the National Rally party Marine Le Pen has threatened to bring down the government unless Bayrou rows back the proposed measures. Meanwhile, in the UK gilts lost further ground, with the 10yr yield up +2.4bps, whilst the 30yr yield (+2.9bps) moved up to its highest since late May, at 5.46%.
There wasn’t much other data yesterday, with Canada’s CPI rising as expected to +1.9% in June. However, the CPI-median measure followed by the Bank of Canada ticked up to +3.1% (vs. +3.0% expected), which led investors to push back the timing of the next rate cut, whilst 10yr government bond yields rose +8.4bps on the day. Meanwhile in Germany, the ZEW survey rose more than expected in July, with the expectations component up to a three-year high of 52.7 (vs. 50.4 expected).
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the PPI reading for June, along with industrial production and capacity utilisation. In the UK, there’s also the CPI print for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Hammack, Barr and Williams, and the Fed will release their Beige Book. The European Commission will also be releasing its proposal for the next 7-year EU budget running from 2028 to 2034 (see our economists’ preview here). Finally, earnings releases include Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and United Airlines.
2b European Opening report
NQ underperforms after ASML (-8%) earnings, PPI, earnings and Fed speak ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 05:38 AM
US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st. Also notes that pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be low
European bourses are mixed having clambered off early morning lows, Autos/Tech lags following results from Renault and ASML.
US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark, NQ lags as it digests ASML’s results where it walked back on its 2026 growth outlook amid tariff uncertainty.
DXY essentially flat awaiting US PPI, GBP digests hot inflation metrics.
EGBs slightly heavy into the MMF, Gilts lag on CPI, USTs flat before PPI.
Looking ahead, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Speakers including Fed’s Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams. Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
US President Trump they are working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.
US President Trump said pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be low, while Trump also said they will release tariff letters for smaller countries soon and will probably set one tariff for all of them over 10%.
US President Trump said a great deal for everybody was just made with Indonesia with Indonesia to pay 19%, while the US will pay nothing and similar deals are in the works. Trump later posted that “Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 Billion Dollars in U.S. Energy, $4.5 Billion Dollars in American Agricultural Products, and 50 Boeing Jets, many of them 777’s.”
US Trade Representative announced the initiation of a Section 301 investigation of Brazil’s unfair trading practices.
China’s Commerce Ministry said China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses opened mixed/mostly lower, but have traded with an upward bias throughout the European morning, to show a mixed picture.
European sectors are mixed, with underperformance in Autos, dragged lower by post-earning losses in Renault (-16.4%) after it cut guidance; Stellantis (-4%) also moves lower after it halted its hydrogen fuel cell technology development programme. Tech has also been pressured by ASML (-8.7%) after its Q2 results; the Co. reported better-than-expected headline metrics, but guidance was light and the CEO said they cannot confirm growth in 2026.
US equity futures (ES -0.1% NQ -0.3% RTY +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, with underperformance in tech-heavy NQ as it wanes from Tuesday gains, along with underperformance in European tech names. Focus today on US PPI, Fed speak and a slew of earnings.
NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO says Chinese supply chain is very advanced and sophisticated. Hopes to have a great future in China.
Amazon (AMZN) has been removed from US 1 list at BofA
ASML -8.7%: Lowered Q3 rev., margin outlook, does not confirm 2026 growth target.
Renault -16.2%: Provided dreary FY guidance, stressed poor retail market.
Rio Tinto +1.2%: Pilbara iron ore output rise, copper production exp. at top of FY guidance.
Richemont +0.5%: Q1 sales at constant FX rise.
Sandvik -0.9%: mixed results, noted of strong momentum noted in mining, highest order intake ever in Q2
FX
The dollar is giving back some of Tuesday’s gains seen in the aftermath of US CPI data. Further inflation data is due today with Y/Y PPI expected to decline to 2.5% from 2.6%, M/M is expected to pick up to 0.2% from 0.1%. Once released, markets will be able to cement calls for the upcoming PCE report (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). Today’s Fed docket is a busy one with Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams all due on deck. Note, the Fed Beige Book at 19:00BST will be parsed for the impact of Trump’s tariff regime at a regional level. DXY sits towards the top end of Tuesday’s 97.97-98.69 range.
EUR is attempting to atone for Tuesdays’ losses, which saw EUR/USD slip onto a 1.15 handle for the first time since 25th June. French politics moved back into focus yesterday after PM Bayrou unveiled his plans to bolster France’s finances. His outline was subsequently met with threats of no confidence from the hard left and far right. EUR/USD sits towards the bottom end of Tuesday’s 1.1593-1.1692 range.
JPY flat vs. the USD after a recent run of losses, which have lifted USD/JPY from the low seen on July 1st at 142.68 to a multi-month high today at 149.18. The main drivers for the move have been a broad pick-up in the USD and angst over the lack of trade progress between Japan and the US. The next upside level for USD/JPY comes via the 3rd April high at 149.33.
GBP has seen some mild support in the wake of hotter-than-expected UK inflation metrics. Y/Y CPI unexpectedly advanced to 3.6% from 3.4% (exp. 3.4%) and the services metric held steady at 4.7% vs. expectations of a decline to 4.6%. Nonetheless, markets still expect the BoE to cut rates next month, but US Jobs data will be in focus on Thursday. Whilst Cable did briefly make its way back onto a 1.34 handle with a session high at 1.3416, the upside was limited by the aforementioned stagflationary outlook facing the UK.
Antipodeans are slightly mixed vs. the USD with no obvious driver for the mild discrepancy. Newsflow surrounding both currencies remains light as markets await tomorrow’s Australian jobs report.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1526 vs exp. 7.1914 (Prev. 7.1498)
USTs are incrementally firmer/flat (whilst global peers are broadly lower). Currently in a in a very thin 110-08+ to 111-13+ band, awaiting PPI, Industrial Production and Fed speak. PPI will be scoured to see if the series’ internals are evident of tariff-driven price pressures emerging; a slew of Fed speakers are also due.
Bunds are modestly lower today, but well off lows in a 129.19-56 band, matching Tuesday’s trough ahead of the 129.12 low from last Friday. The main event today for the bloc is the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) presentation, i.e. the bloc’s budget for the next seven years. As it stands, Commission President von der Leyen is scheduled to unveil it at 16:00BST.
OATs are trading broadly in-line with peers, down by a handful of ticks. In French politics, PM Bayrou’s plan to save EUR 43.8bln from the budget in 2026 in order to get the debt-to-GDP ratio down, in-line with existing commitments/targets. The proposal has already drawn criticism from various political parties, unsurprisingly National Rally (RN) has said they will move to censure Bayrou if he does not change his plans.
Gilts are underperforming, opened lower by 19 ticks and then slipped another 21 in short order to a 91.17 base. Notching a new WTD low and taking Gilts back to 91.16 from the first week of June. If breached, then we look to 90.11 from May as the next major point of support. Pressure emerged on the morning’s June inflation. A hotter-than-expected series, driven by motor fuel prices. While hotter, the series has only sparked a relatively modest move in BoE pricing with c. 1bps of implied easing removed from August and only around 3bps by end-2025.
UK DMO sells GBP 1.5bln 4.5% 2034 Gilt: b/c 3.32x, average yield 4.553%, tail 0.4bps.
Germany sells EUR 1.129bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 and EUR 0.8bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 1.25% 2048 Bunds
WTI and Brent are currently incrementally lower, and have held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Brent Sept’25 has traded in a very tight USD 68.46-69.09/bbl range, and ultimately awaiting US PPI.
Precious metals are mixed with Palladium a little lower whilst spot Gold and Silver post modest gains. Newsflow has been relatively light today and Dollar price-action has been muted. The yellow-metal is seemingly attempting to pare back losses seen in the prior session. XAU/USD currently trades in a USD 3,325.21-3,342.49/oz range, with the low for today incrementally above its 50 DMA (3,323.42)
Base metals are broadly lower continuing the downbeat mood seen overnight, in-fitting with the broader risk tone across the equities complex. 3M LME Copper currently trades towards the lower end of a USD 9,613.1-9,663/t range.
US Private Sector Inventory data showed (bbls) crude +0.8mln (exp. -0.6mln), gasoline +1.9mln (-1.0mln), distillate +0.8mln (+0.2mln), according to Reuters citing sources.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has temporarily shut in production at the Shaikan field (capacity approx. 55k BPD) following reports over the past two days of explosions at several nearby oil fields.
UK CPI YY (Jun) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%); MM (Jun) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
UK Core CPI YY (Jun) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%); MM (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
UK CPI Services YY (Jun) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.60% (Prev. 4.70%); Services MM (Jun) 0.6% (Prev. -0.10%)
UK ONS House Price Index (May): 3.9% Y/Y (prev. 3.5%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
BoE Governor Bailey said multilateral institutions are essential for good policymaking and they are following financial stability risks closely, while he noted countries with big deficits typically come under most financial market pressure and he is yet to be convinced about the need for a retail CBDC.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down and she wants to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced, while she added that June CPI data suggests PCE inflation, which the Fed targets at 2%, will rise. Logan also commented that softer inflation and a weakening labour market could call for lower rates fairly soon and under the base case, the Fed can sustain maximum employment even with modestly restrictive policy. Furthermore, she said if the Fed misjudges and doesn’t cut soon enough, it could cut rates further to get employment back on track but also warned that cutting rates too soon risks deeper economic scars and a longer road to price stability.
US President Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help open up 401(k)s to private-market investments, according to WSJ.
US Senator Cassidy said President Trump is to sign Fentanyl Act into law on Wednesday.
US Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered the release of 2000 National Guard troops from the federal protection mission in LA.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Trump’s administration asked Israel to stop its strikes on Syrian military forces in the south of the country, while Israel promised that it would cease the attacks on Tuesday evening, according to a US official cited by Axios.
US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM today to discuss negotiations over Gaza’s ceasefire deal and are expected to discuss efforts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran to reach a new nuclear agreement, according to Axios.
US, France and Germany agreed that Iran faces stiff sanctions if there is no deal by the end of August, according to Axios.
Foreign tanker reportedly seized by Iran for ‘smuggling’ 2mln litres of fuel, according to SNN.
Iranian Parliament issues statement saying negotiations with US cannot begin until preconditions are met, according to ISNA
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US President Trump said weapons are already being shipped to Ukraine and NATO will pay them back for everything and won’t have boots on the ground, while he added that Iran wants to talk but he is in no rush to talk with Iran.
Russia’s Kremlin says subject of weapon supplies to Ukraine is high on agenda, via Ifax; phone call with US President Trump not planned but can be organised quickly, via Tass.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin has found some footing after recent losses and sits just above the USD 119k mark.
“House to try again today to clear procedural hurdle for defense bill and 3 crypto bills after conservatives blocked the rule yesterday”, via Pergram on X
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St owing to an acceleration in US CPI data, while trade uncertainty lingered after President Trump suggested pharma tariffs could begin at month-end and tariff letters for smaller countries could be sent out soon.
ASX 200 retreated with nearly all sectors in the red aside from tech and with miners not helped by the indecisive performance in Rio Tinto following its quarterly operations update in which it registered higher iron ore production but a decline in shipments Y/Y.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively in which the index swung between gains and losses amid the lack of pertinent drivers for Japan and some political concerns ahead of Sunday’s upper house election as a recent poll showed the ruling bloc was at risk of losing its majority.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed in the absence of any major fresh pertinent macro drivers and despite comments from China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng who stated that China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and is stepping up efforts to boost consumption.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and its industrial upgrading providing support to global industrial and supply chain operations, while He added China is stepping up efforts to boost consumption.
Japan’s ruling coalition risks losing a majority at the upper house election, according to Nikkei.
2c) Asian opening report
Europe primed for a lower open with earnings and Fed speak ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 01:47 AM
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St.
US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.
European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.
DXY is fractionally softer after gaining again yesterday, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle, Cable sits sub-1.34 pre-CPI.
France’s Marine Le Pen warned that if French PM Bayrou does not revise his public spending plan they “will seek to topple him”.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Fed’s Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams, Supply from Germany, Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, ASML & Sandvik.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mixed albeit with the major indices mostly in the red in the aftermath of the June CPI report which was varied and initially sparked a dovish reaction, although once the internals of the report were digested, like the 0.7% rise in core goods, it showed the start of the pricing impact from tariffs and ultimately pressured stocks and T-notes. As such, there was notable underperformance in the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.9%) although chip names kept the Nasdaq afloat after reports related to export licences for NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) to sell H20 and MI308 chips to China, while attention was also on the start of earnings season and big banks largely finished the session lower despite profit beats, as some NII and expense metrics disappointed.
SPX -0.41% at 6,243, NDX +0.13% at 22,885, DJI -0.98% at 44,023, RUT -1.92% at 2,206.
US President Trump they are working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.
US President Trump said pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be low, while Trump also said they will release tariff letters for smaller countries soon and will probably set one tariff for all of them over 10%.
US President Trump said a great deal for everybody was just made with Indonesia with Indonesia to pay 19%, while the US will pay nothing and similar deals are in the works. Trump later posted that “Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 Billion Dollars in U.S. Energy, $4.5 Billion Dollars in American Agricultural Products, and 50 Boeing Jets, many of them 777’s.”
US President Trump said they are making progress with the EU but already have the letter.
US President Trump expects to meet UK PM Starmer in Scotland and refine the trade deal.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said China chip sales were part of the rare earth magnets agreements and that they’re selling China their fourth-best chips, while he said they’re not charging tariffs on raw steel, just the finished item, according to CNBC. Lutnick separately commented that they have lots of deals on the table and that AI is going to help create manufacturing.
US Trade Representative announced the initiation of a Section 301 investigation of Brazil’s unfair trading practices.
China’s Commerce Ministry said China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said a solid economy gives the Fed time to decide its next interest rate move and it is challenging to set monetary policy amid uncertainty, while she said it is time for the Fed to be ‘actively patient’ with monetary policy.
Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down and she wants to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced, while she added that June CPI data suggests PCE inflation, which the Fed targets at 2%, will rise. Logan also commented that softer inflation and a weakening labour market could call for lower rates fairly soon and under the base case, the Fed can sustain maximum employment even with modestly restrictive policy. Furthermore, she said if the Fed misjudges and doesn’t cut soon enough, it could cut rates further to get employment back on track but also warned that cutting rates too soon risks deeper economic scars and a longer road to price stability.
Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said more price pressures are coming from tariffs.
US President Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help open up 401(k)s to private-market investments, according to WSJ.
US Senator Cassidy said President Trump is to sign Fentanyl Act into law on Wednesday.
US Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered the release of 2000 National Guard troops from the federal protection mission in LA.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St owing to an acceleration in US CPI data, while trade uncertainty lingered after President Trump suggested pharma tariffs could begin at month-end and tariff letters for smaller countries could be sent out soon.
ASX 200 retreated with nearly all sectors in the red aside from tech and with miners not helped by the indecisive performance in Rio Tinto following its quarterly operations update in which it registered higher iron ore production but a decline in shipments Y/Y.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively in which the index swung between gains and losses amid the lack of pertinent drivers for Japan and some political concerns ahead of Sunday’s upper house election as a recent poll showed the ruling bloc was at risk of losing its majority.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed in the absence of any major fresh pertinent macro drivers and despite comments from China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng who stated that China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and is stepping up efforts to boost consumption.
US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%) remained lacklustre after retreating on the inflation data and with large banks failing to take full advantage of the earnings beats.
European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY took a breather and held on to the prior day’s spoils after ultimately gaining as the dust settled following the US CPI data which printed mixed but showed an acceleration in prices, while recent Fed commentary had little impact including from Fed’s Logan who stated the base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down and wants to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced. Nonetheless, participants await more price metrics and central bank rhetoric with PPI data and more than half a dozen Fed speakers scheduled today.
EUR/USD attempted to nurse losses after briefly slipping beneath the 1.1600 level owing to dollar strength and with the single currency not helped by political headwinds in France where the ‘far right’ and ‘hard left’ have both threatened to topple the government over the French PM’s budget squeeze.
GBP/USD remained beneath the 1.3400 level after recent pressure in cyclicals and as UK inflation data looms.
USD/JPY revisited the 149.00 level to the upside after advancing alongside the firmer buck in the aftermath of US CPI data.
Antipodeans received slight reprieve after the prior day’s selling but with a recovery restricted by the mixed sentiment.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1526 vs exp. 7.1914 (Prev. 7.1498)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures languished near the prior day’s lows after ultimately slumping in the aftermath of the US CPI data which printed mixed but showed an acceleration from the previous, while participants now await more data due later including PPI and Industrial Production.
Bund futures struggled for direction after recent fluctuations and as Bund issuances loomed.
10yr JGB futures continued on the recent downtrend amid a quiet data calendar and absence of fresh catalysts for Japan.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures mildly rebounded off the prior day’s trough after prices were constrained by recent geopolitical updates and a firmer dollar, while private sector inventory data provided some confusion with some sources reporting different figures.
US Private Sector Inventory data showed (bbls) crude +0.8mln (exp. -0.6mln), gasoline +1.9mln (-1.0mln), distillate +0.8mln (+0.2mln), according to Reuters citing sources.
Spot gold regained composure after yesterday’s declines which were exacerbated after US CPI showed a tariff impact.
Copper futures were subdued following recent whipsawing and amid the overall mixed risk sentiment in the Asia-Pac region.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin traded indecisively and gradually pulled back after briefly reclaiming the USD 118k level.
US House Republicans failed to clear a procedural motion that would allow consideration of a pair of crypto bills and the defence spending bill, although President Trump later posted that he was in the Oval Office with 11 of the 12 Congressmen/women necessary to pass the GENIUS Act and after a short discussion, they have all agreed to vote on Wednesday morning in favour of the rule.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and its industrial upgrading providing support to global industrial and supply chain operations, while He added China is stepping up efforts to boost consumption.
Japan’s ruling coalition risks losing a majority at the upper house election, according to Nikkei.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Trump’s administration asked Israel to stop its strikes on Syrian military forces in the south of the country, while Israel promised that it would cease the attacks on Tuesday evening, according to a US official cited by Axios.
US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM today to discuss negotiations over Gaza’s ceasefire deal and are expected to discuss efforts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran to reach a new nuclear agreement, according to Axios.
US, France and Germany agreed that Iran faces stiff sanctions if there is no deal by the end of August, according to Axios.
Foreign tanker reportedly seized by Iran for ‘smuggling’ 2mln litres of fuel, according to SNN.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US President Trump said weapons are already being shipped to Ukraine and NATO will pay them back for everything and won’t have boots on the ground, while he added that Iran wants to talk but he is in no rush to talk with Iran.
US President Trump said it is “too bad” if there is no deal with Russia in 50 days and that Ukrainian President Zelensky should not target Moscow. Trump also said he is on nobody’s side and wants to stop the killing, while he added they are going to see what happens with Russian President Putin.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE Governor Bailey said multilateral institutions are essential for good policymaking and they are following financial stability risks closely, while he noted countries with big deficits typically come under most financial market pressure and he is yet to be convinced about the need for a retail CBDC.
ECB’s Nagel said a steady hand is needed on ECB rates, according to Handelsblatt.
EU approves Germany’s multi-year fiscal plan, according to Politico.
France’s Marine Le Pen warned that if French PM Bayrou does not revise his public spending plan they “will seek to topple him”. It was also reported that French hard-left lawmaker Coquerel said lawmakers will not vote for PM’s public finance plan and will act to oust the government if it seeks to ram it through parliament without a vote.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
Goldman Warns of “Accelerated Property Price Declines” Across Chinese Cities
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 07:40 PM
The latest 70-city house price data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicate that the property market remains in decline as of June, despite ongoing policy easing measures and recent rumors that Beijing may revive its 2015 stimulus playbook. Overnight, China reported 5.2% year-over-year growth for Q2, just fractionally above expectations (does anyone actually believe these numbers?).
A team of Goldman analysts, led by Andrew Tilton, penned a note on Tuesday for clients, warning that China’s housing market is continuing to accelerate to the downside.
NBS’ 70-city primary-market weighted average property price change in June: -2.5% mom annualized (seasonally adjusted by GS), -3.1% yoy. May: -2.3% mom annualized, -3.5% yoy.
Tilton said new data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows new home prices across 70 cities fell 2.5% month-over-month annualized in June—despite ongoing easing efforts. The downturn isn’t limited to Tier 1 cities—it’s widespread. Translation: The “floor” Beijnng continues to promise looks more like a trapdoor every time.
The five main points from the data:
After seasonal adjustments, weighted average house prices in the primary market fell by 2.5% mom annualized in June (vs. -2.3% in May; Exhibit 1), despite ongoing easing policies.
The number of cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices ticked up in the primary market but continued to fall in the secondary market in June (Exhibit 3).
Year-on-year change in the weighted average new home prices fell by 3.1% in June, compared to -3.5% in May. We emphasize the 70-city data are for primary market transactions (new home sales) only; secondary market data by NBS and some third-party platforms suggest price declines of 5%-15% over the past year (Exhibit 4).
By city tiers[2], house prices of Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities declined sequentially by 1.3% and 2.1% mom annualized in June (vs. -0.7% and -1.9% in May), respectively (Exhibit 2). For Tier-3 cities, house prices declined sequentially by 3.5% mom annualized (vs. -3.5% in May). Despite more local housing easing measures in recent months, we believe the property markets in lower-tier cities still face strong headwinds from weaker growth fundamentals than top-tier cities, including the more severe oversupply problems.
Our high frequency tracker suggests that the 30-city new home transaction volume declined by 4% yoy in June. Major cities’ inventory months (sellable gross floor area divided by 12-month rolling gross floor area sold) increased slightly to 26.0 in July from 25.5 in June, with the increase mostly led by Tier-2 cities.
Since the September policy pivot last year, policymakers have aimed to provide a floor to the property market. In the recent State Council meeting, the government stated to construct a new real estate development model (房地产发展新模式) and advance the “good housing initiative” (好房子建设). We expect incremental housing easing measures to stabilize home prices and contain the left-tail risk in the property sector, including further cuts to mortgage rates, faster implementation of local government purchases of raw land and existing housing inventory, and more policy support for cash-backed urban village renovation programs (with 1mn units already announced). However, we believe a repeat of the 2015-18 shantytown redevelopment program is unlikely.
END
CHINA
China’s Rare Earths Exports High Highest Level Since 2009
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 06:55 AM
China exported 7,742 metric tonnes of rare earths last month, marking the highest peak since 2009.
Total exports of rare minerals for the cumulative first half of 2025 amounted to 32,569 tonnes, up from 29,095 tonnes in H1 2024 (+11.9 percent).
In April, Beijing implemented export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets in a move widely considered a response to increased tariffs from the United States.
These restrictions raised concerns in countries such as the U.S., Japan and European nations over supply chain disruptions, particularly in the defense, energy and automotive sectors.
The customs data reflected in this chart does not specify which rare earths were exported, with a more detailed breakdown expected later this month.
END
4. European affairs
SPAIN
Spanish Citizens Riot After Elderly Man Brutally Assaulted By Migrants
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Among all the painfully leftist governments in Europe the leadership of Spain is often cited as the worst. In 2023, Ipsos published a report conducted in collaboration with King’s College London and The Global Institute for Women’s Leadership, indicating that Spain is the European country with the highest level of “self-identified feminists” and a strong “awareness of gender inequality”. In other words, the country is doomed to suffocate from the stupidity of far-left politics.
This includes dangerous progressive immigration policies, with Spain being overrun by third-world migrants in the past several years. The majority of migrants are Muslim, come from North Africa and enter illegally from Morocco.
The problem has been compared to an engineered foreign invasion with leftist/globalist leaders pulling the strings in the name of “multiculturalism”. If the goal is to create a Utopian society where everyone gets along and respects every other culture equally, then the project has failed miserably and should be abandoned. If, however, the goal is to destroy western civilization through demographic sabotage, then the project is enjoying wild success (and should still be abandoned).
Spanish citizens have dealt with years of expanding criminal activity and violence due to migrants – The majority of them tend to be military age males from Islamic nations in North Africa and they have shown no intention of assimilating into Europeans societies. These migrants have formed numerous street gangs in Spanish cities, committing theft, muggings, beatings and rape while openly wielding knives and machetes. Since 2019 Spain has seen a 35% increase in knife crimes.
The “cultural enrichers” commonly record and proudly post their attacks on social media. This includes a recent mob assault of an elderly Spanish man named Domingo Tomás Domínguez that ended with severe injuries and hospitalization.
Such crimes are rarely reported in the international media and quietly buried by the Spanish government. Leftist activists in Spain fully support the invasion and malign anyone who dares to criticize the lack of immigration enforcement. The country is so rife with fear, citizens complain that attacks in the streets are ignored by witnesses. They walk away and let victims fend for themselves.
The media refuses to cover immigrant crime with any honesty, but they do jump to the ready when conservative groups try to do something about it. Citizen riots have exploded in Spain this week after the attack on Dominguez, with the media admonishing the “far-right violence” as “racist” and “Islamophobic”.
The propaganda on display here is astonishingly vile. No mention of the years of assaults committed by migrants in the country and the only people being punished are “right wing” protesters reacting to the crimes.
The goal of Islamic fundamentalists in Europe is to subdue and conquer; what they call “Soft Jihad”. Just look at how they responded when France banned Muslim face coverings.
Palestinian Muslim scholar:
“Europeans are lowlifes and a civilization of prostitutes, promiscuity, and homosexuality.
We will conquer Paris and Rome and rule Europe with Islam.”
We witnessed similar events in England: Native citizens rioted after years of migrant attacks and child grooming gangs, culminating in the murder of three young girls by a teen criminal of migrant descent (Axel Rudakubana) at a children’s dance recital. Instead of addressing legitimate concerns over third world immigration, the British authorities cracked down on the protesters, including free speech online. They have jailed numerous citizens for “hate crimes” simply for speaking out on the migrant problem.
Conservative commentators suggest that the conditions are so intolerable that civil war is a foregone conclusion. Multiculturalism is a vicious ideology that seeks to snuff out dissent and ravage western societies. It’s unlikely that the situation will end peacefully.
END
FRANCE
Renault Shock Profit Warning Sends Shares Crashing
Shares of French carmaker Renault, trading in Paris, crashed the most since the early days of the Covid pandemic after the company issued an unscheduled release, warning of lower profits for the year amid slumping demand and fierce competition from Chinese carmakers like BYD Motors.
Renault stated in the release that it had lowered its operating margin forecast for the year to around 6.5%, down from at least 7% previously. It also cut its free cash flow estimate to between 1 billion euros and 1.5 billion euros, down from 2 billion euros.
It stated that first-half volumes were lower than expected, as the retail market continues to soften, and added that inventories have swelled.
Renault slashed its full-year forecast:
Sees operating margin 6.5%, saw at least 7%, estimate 7.1% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees free cash flow EU1 billion to EU1.5 billion, saw at least EU2 billion, estimate EU2.09 billion
The revised guidance underscores Europe’s sluggish car market and the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers, such as BYD, which are flooding the continent with vehicles and putting increased pressure on domestic brands.
In Paris, Renault shares crashed 17%, the largest daily decline since early March 2020.
And shares are at their lowest point since 2024.
Commenting on the shock profit warning, UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst told clients:
Renault contributes 60% to the selloff in Autos on the day with the UBS Autos basket {UBXEAUTO} down 2.4% after issuing a profit warning.
Here’s what other top desks are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Oddo (outperform, PT to €55 from €60)
Analyst Michael Foundoukidis says it’s a stark warning and unfortunate timing after CEO departure, leading them to cut their estimates by 10%
“The release suggests an awful June which will likely raise fears around the visibility in the new guide,” he adds
Says stock will likely be seen as “dead money near term” at least pending new CEO
Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)
Analyst Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan says while Renault is the first auto OEM to cut its guidance, the factors behind this profit warning will likely drive more cuts across the sector
Guidance implies about 7% cut to consensus Ebit for FY25, with Renault impacted by further commercial pressures
2Q may be bottom of the cycle if tariffs normalize, but if not there is further downside risk to margins and performance
Citi (buy)
Commercial pressure in Europe adds to broader headwinds from tariffs and pricing pressures, which Renault had until now been managing better than many peers, analyst Harald Hendrikse writes
While the stock does already discount some of the concerns, investors may be wondering if margins are peaking at a time when wider SXAP margins are nearing a trough
Appointment of a CEO may be seen as a positive “when the dust settles”
JPMorgan (overweight)
Analyst Jose Asumendi says preliminary 1H Ebit 13% below consensus expectations, impacted by volume miss, commercial pressures and higher receivables due to timing impacts
Notes that Renault does expect some improvement in 2H, and that several launches are scheduled
Will be crucial for Renault to provide clarity on permanent CEO succession
. END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS IRAN
Israel bombed Iran, Tehran still refuses to talk about its nuke program, what’s next? – analysis
Three weeks after the Israel-Iran War ended, Khamenei expelled the IAEA, refused US nuclear talks, and appears undecided on reconstituting nuclear and missile programs.
An illustrative image of the silhouettes of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to a backdrop of their respective countries’ flags.(photo credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJULY 15, 2025 19:45Updated: JULY 15, 2025 19:47
From June 13-24, Israel devastated Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile program, its anti-aircraft defenses, top military and nuclear chiefs, and symbols of the IRGC and Basij militia’s oppressive rule.
But after all of that, to date, there has been zero progress to set future limits on Iran’s nuclear or ballistic missile programs.
There was hope that after setting back Tehran’s nuclear program by a number of years and harming its ballistic missile program substantially, that the ayatollahs would finally sign a tougher nuclear deal that would really keep them away from nuclear weapons.
Also, there was a stretch to hope that the Islamic Republic would even modify its ballistic missile program to stop adding missiles that could reach Israel, settling for medium-range missiles.
Three weeks after the Israel-Iran War ended, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expelled the IAEA from his country, refused to talk with the US about his nuclear program, but also seems undecided as to whether he will push forward to reconstitute his nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER Abbas Araghchi speaks at a meeting with foreign ambassadors in Tehran on Saturday. Israel’s most pressing strategic challenge today is Iran, states the writer in his open letter. (credit: Iranian Foreign Ministry/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
On Tuesday, Iran was expected to hold meetings with Russia and China to better size up both how much these countries are willing to help Khamenei.
The laundry list is long.
Iran wants to rebuild its nuclear program
Iran wants their help to rebuild what it has lost in the nuclear and ballistic missile arenas, as well as help to rebuild its anti-aircraft defense systems and possibly provide new offensive weapons, like more advanced aircraft.
But to date, the Islamic Republic has been thoroughly disappointed with its big brothers who stayed completely out of the war.
While Kremlin spokespeople deplored the report as “defamation,” they also notably did not deny its substance, and, since the war, Putin himself has not backed Iran’s position publicly of continuing to enrich uranium.
Their rationale is that they only support Tehran on a transactional basis when convenient, but that they are fearful of what the messianic ayatollahs might do with nuclear weapons.
So if Iran is still sorting out its game plan as it talks with its allies and sorts through the rubble of its once proud nuclear facilities to see how bad things are, what are all the other key parties’ game plan while Iran stonewalls?
In the worst case, with no IAEA inspectors in the country, it is easier for Khamenei to secretly move many different key aspects of Iran’s nuclear program to new concealed locations in order to try to sneak out quietly to a nuclear weapon.
At most, Iran seems ready to allow a limited return of IAEA inspectors, but not to any of the sensitive nuclear sites regarding which the world most wants to know the status of.
In some ways, Israel is the party that is most in the driver’s seat.
The imminent threat of a nuclear Iran has been removed by kinetic military force.
And Iran has zero air defense now, and probably for a period of several months if not longer.
E-3 threats of snapback sanctions
So in the near term, Israel could attack again if it sees Iran doing something it does not like – note the recent Defense Ministry announcement that Israeli satellites took tens of millions of photos of Iran leading up to and during the war.
It is the E-3 of England, France, and Germany, who really have the toughest decision.
On October 18, the main limits on Iranian centrifuges for enriching uranium drop, and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal mechanism to automatically snap back global sanctions on Iran for nuclear violations will expire.
The E-3 had been saying for several months that if Iran does not agree to a nuclear deal by the start of August, in two weeks, they would activate the snapback sanctions.
Iran had counter-threatened to kick out the IAEA inspectors and possibly to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its nuclear limits.
But all of that was before Israel removed Iran’s nuclear threat for a period of a couple of years, if not more.
Does the E-3 need to snapback sanctions now if Iran is not a near or medium-term nuclear threat?
Conversely, might the E-3 now be more emboldened to snap back sanctions when Iran pulls out of the NPT with no current functioning nuclear program, would not mean much, and when they have already kicked out the IAEA nuclear inspectors?
The Trump administration has not said much about Iran nuclear negotiations other than they hope they happen, but has not imposed any deadlines on Tehran to act. Mostly, the Trump administration is still trying to glory in its role dropping bombs on three nuclear sites, including one under a mountain and a hard-to-hit site, Fordow.
So there could be significant action in a couple of weeks regarding snapping back sanctions, and there could be a flurry of diplomatic activity to avert the Israel-Iran ceasefire breaking down.
Or Israel and the West could decide that the snapback is less important in the new post-war reality, and instead sit back and relax, while using their own clandestine spying methods to watch whether Iran starts to rebuild its nuclear program, and wait to make threats until that issue is clearer.
END
IRAN/USA
Trump in no rush to talk with Iran, US sets August deadline for Iran nuclear deal
U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks with the media after attending the FIFA Club World Cup final upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S, July 13, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
Trump says he is in no rush to talk with Iran
ByREUTERS
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Tehran was hoping to engage in discussions with the United States, but he is in no rush to talk with Iran.
“They would like to talk. I’m in no rush to talk because we obliterated their site,” Trump told reporters after his arrival in Washington after a trip to Pittsburgh, referring to US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last month.
END
US, allies agree August deadline for Iran nuclear deal, Axios reports
ByREUTERS
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK agreed in a phone call on Monday to set the end of August as the de facto deadline for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, Axios reported, citing three sources.
If no deal is reached by that deadline, the three European powers plan to trigger the “snapback” mechanism that automatically reimposes all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 Iran deal, according to the Axios report.
If Iran and the US cannot reach a deal by August, Germany, France, and the UK will reimpose UNSC sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 Iran deal.
The IRGC’s control over Iran’s oil industry has grown to such a point, experts now estimate 50% of the country’s oil wealth is siphoned to the military organization(photo credit: WANA handout via REUTERS/ANONYMOUS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 16, 2025 00:10Updated: JULY 16, 2025 01:46
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK agreed in a phone call on Monday to set the end of August as the de facto deadline for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, Axios reported, citing three sources.
If no deal is reached by that deadline, the three European powers plan to trigger the “snapback” mechanism that automatically reimposes all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 Iran deal, according to the Axios report.
The four nations are reportedly looking to potentially implement the snapback measures before Russia, a critical Iranian ally, assumes the UNSC presidency.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with US President Donald Trump at the White House, in Washington DC, US, July 8, 2025 (credit: Avi Ohayon/GPO)
Europe to push Iran on steps to make a deal
While the West seems to view the snapback measures as a way to bring Tehran to the negotiating table, Iran argues that they aren’t legally valid and has threatened to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response.
Axios reported that the European allies now plan to convey to Iranian officials that they can avoid the sanctions if they take steps to demonstrate their commitment to achieving a deal of sorts. The report gave examples of steps Tehran could take, such as resuming operations with the International Atomic Energy Agency or removing 400 kg of enriched uranium from nuclear sites.
This comes after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Donald Trump to not block the snapback measures in their recent meeting in Washington, Axios reported.
Netanyahu also reportedly told Trump to press the Iranians to make a deal quickly in order to avoid imposing sanctions.
“We felt that Trump and his team agreed with us,” an Israeli official told Axios.
I
END
SYRIA
IDF seeks to stop dozens of Israeli civilians infiltrating Syria
IDF soldiers operating in southern Syria, where they arrested members of a terror cell operated by Iran’s Quds Force, July 7, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJULY 15, 2025 18:08Updated: JULY 15, 2025 19:51
The IDF on Tuesday evening confirmed that dozens of Druze-Israeli civilians had managed to infiltrate Syrian territory from the area of the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the North.
According to the military, it was “acting to safely return the civilians who crossed the border.”
It was unclear why the IDF was not sufficiently prepared to prevent the civilians from infiltrating Syria.
In addition, it was also unclear what legal consequences would come down on those civilians who violated the law by doing so.
The Druze-Israelis have said they infiltrated the area to help their Druze-Syrian relatives and friends who in recent days have been in gunfights with Syrian-Bedouins and some forces of the new Syrian government.
Israel has been trying to militarily support the Druze-Syrians when Syrian government forces have tried to enter their towns, and could be walking a fine line with how to treat Druze-Israelis, who are up in arms that as many of dozens of their brethren may have been killed during the recent fighting.
END
SYRIA DRUZE
Netanyahu states: Druze brothers do not cross into Syria . Let us do the job
(JerusalemPost)
Netanyahu: ‘My Druze brothers, do not cross the border into Syria, let the IDF do its job’
Israeli officials react to the ongoing violence in Syria’s Sweida between regime forces and the local Druze community.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, with a map of the Middle East (Illustrative).(photo credit: Chip Somodevilla, Ali Haj Suleiman, KeithBinns/Getty Images)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 16, 2025 15:23Updated: JULY 16, 2025 15:24
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Israeli Druze citizens not to cross the border amid ongoing clashes in Sweida in southern Syria on Wednesday afternoon.
“You are endangering your lives; you could be killed, you could be kidnapped, and you are harming the IDF’s efforts,” Netanyahu said.
“The IDF, air force, and other forces are operating. We are taking action to save our Druze brothers and to eliminate the regime’s militias. Therefore, I ask you — return to your homes. Let the IDF do its job,” he added.
“To our Druze brothers in Israel: You can trust the IDF to protect your brothers in Syria. Netanyahu and I, as defense minister, have made a commitment, and we will uphold it,” Defense Minister Israel Katz added.
“The IDF will continue to operate forcefully in Sweida to destroy the forces that attacked the Druze until their full withdrawal,” he continued.
Members of Syrian security forces take position inside a house, after clashes between Syrian government troops and local Druze fighters resumed in the southern Druze city of Sweida, July 16, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/KARAM AL-MASRI)
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar alleged that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa‘s regime has committed “persecution and pogroms” against minority groups in Syria.
“What is the international community waiting for?” he asked.
“Our interests in Syria are well known and clear, including preventing harm to the Druze community, with whom we have strong ties. If the regime in Damascus doesn’t come to its senses, it will ultimately distance itself from all the key goals it has set for itself, foremost among them governance and economic prosperity. It would be best for it to come to its senses and restore order.”
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid spoke with Israeli-Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Muwafaq Tarif, affirming that he stands by the Druze community and its security, and will always stand by it.
Syria’s Presidency condemns recent violence
Meanwhile, the office of the Syrian Presidency issued a statement condemning the recent violence between the regime’s forces and the local Druze community.
“The Syrian government strongly condemns these heinous actions and reaffirms our full commitment to investigating all related incidents and holding accountable anyone proven to be involved, whether individuals or foreign organizations operating outside the law. Legal consequences will be imposed, and impunity will not be tolerated,” the statement said.
Amichai Stein and Avraham Bloch contributed to this report.
QATAR/USA/ISRAEL HAMAS
this should be interesting!!
Trump to meet Qatar’s prime minister to discuss Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal
The president will also meet with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain to discuss several agreements between the private sectors of the two countries.
Illustrative image of President-elect Donald Trump and Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.(photo credit: ALLISON ROBBERT/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo, Canva, MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS, Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 16, 2025 09:39Updated: JULY 16, 2025 09:41
US President Donald Trump will meet with Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani for an official dinner on Wednesday to discuss negotiations over the Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal.
Qatar is a key mediator between Israel and Hamas.
The two are also expected to discuss efforts to resume talks between the US and Iran to reach a new nuclear agreement, Axios reporter Barak Ravid wrote on X/Twitter.
Additionally, the president will participate in a Bilateral Meeting with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain.
The two are set to discuss several agreements between the private sectors of Bahrain and the US, valued at an approximate $17 billion, including the launch of direct flights between Bahrain and New York.
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends a press conference, in Doha, Qatar, October 24, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Pool)
Gaza talks stalled in recent days
Negotiations have largely stalled, with the main points of contention between Israel and Hamas being the withdrawal of Israeli forces during the ceasefire and the distribution of aid within the Gaza Strip.
Over the past week, Israeli and Hamas delegations have attended eight rounds of negotiations in Qatar, facilitated by Qatar’s prime minister and Egyptian intelligence officials.
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
end
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
James Okeefe does it again: Lead J and J scientist confesses that the Covid vaccine was not safe and effective
Gateway Pundit
BREAKING: OMG: Johnson & Johnson Lead Scientist Confesses J&J Covid Vaccine Was ‘Not Safe and Effective’ – “Lack of Research” (VIDEO)
The O’Keefe Media Group on Tuesday released undercover video of a lead scientist at pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson admitting the Covid vaccine was not safe and effective.
Joshua Rys, lead regulatory scientist for Johnson & Johnson, told an OMG undercover journalist that the J&J Covid vaccine was rushed to market without much research.
“We didn’t do the typical tests,” Joshua Rys said. “This was just, ‘let’s test it on some lab models… and just throw it to the wind and see what happens.’”
Joshua Rys admitted there was no proof the Covid vaccine even worked to protect against Covid.
“Do you have any idea the lack of research that was done on those products [vaccines]?” Joshua Rys said.
“I mean we basically just had a race to figure out who could solve it best… At one point, we just canned it,” he said.
BREAKING: Johnson & Johnson Lead Scientist Confesses J&J COVID-19 Vaccine Was ‘Not Safe and Effective,’ Reveals “Lack of Research” From Rushing to Release Vaccine: “People Wanted It, We Gave It to Them”
In 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that it would limit who can receive the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Covid-19 shot due to the serious risk of blood clots.
The FDA announced that it would limit the authorized use of J&J Covid-19 shot to individuals 18 years of age and older for whom other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccines are not accessible or clinically appropriate, and to individuals 18 years of age and older who elect to receive the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine because they would otherwise not receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
In 2023, Senator Ron Johnson called for Congress to investigate vaccine manufacturers and the Covid vax approval process in response to Project Veritas’ explosive undercover video exposing Pfizer’s alleged plans to ‘mutate’ the Covid virus.
Project Veritas previously released explosive video of Jordon Trishton Walker, Pfizer Director of Research and Development, Strategic Operations, admitting the pharma giant is exploring ‘mutating’ Covid-19 via ‘directed evolution’ so the company can continue to profit off of vaccines.
BREAKING: @Pfizer Exploring “Mutating” COVID-19 Virus For New Vaccines
“Don’t tell anyone this…There is a risk…have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn’t create something…the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest.”#DirectedEvolutionpic.twitter.com/xaRvlD5qTo
Joe Rogan just AMBUSHED Gavin Newsom with a single text that forced him to answer for California’s draconian COVID policies.
This conversation was a real test.
Newsom tried to recycle old COVID talking points.
But Shawn Ryan pushed back hard, telling Newsom to his face that he REGRETTED taking the vaccine.
Then Rogan’s question landed like a bomb: Who will be held accountable for mandating “unnecessary and ineffective” COVID vaccines for young children?
Watch Newsom squirm as he tries to defend lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and the damage those policies caused.
Governor Gavin Newsom didn’t get the friendly interview he might have expected when he joined The Shawn Ryan Show.
Instead, he found himself pressed on the very issues that have defined…and haunted…his political career.
Even before Covid came up, the conversation turned to one of the country’s most divisive topics: guns.
Ryan opened the exchange with a direct question:
“Do you think that everyday citizens carrying a gun reduces crime or increases crime?”
Newsom didn’t hesitate, delivering the argument he’s repeated for years.
“I think the evidence, the evidence suggests the opposite. It increases the likelihood of a gun death,” he said, insisting that states with stricter gun laws see fewer gun deaths.
“And you look at all the states with the most comprehensive gun safety reforms, they have lower gun death rates than states with weaker gun laws. And there’s a correlation there.”
“California is one of the lowest gun death rates in America. The highest murder rates in the county tend to be red states.”
Ryan wasn’t convinced. He brought up Chicago—a city with strict gun laws but among the nation’s leaders in shootings and homicides.
“Well, I thought Chicago was the number one?”
Newsom faltered.
“No…..well…..as cities you’ll have different experiences, but at state levels, gun safety from our perspective, saves lives,” he tried.
He insisted the data proved his point.
“We have the data to bear that out.”
But there’s a reason that argument often feels hollow.
California’s overall gun death rate might look better than the national average on paper, but its largest cities have become with violent crime rates that defy easy talking points.
For anyone paying attention to the crime waves in Los Angeles, Oakland, and San Francisco, it was hard not to see the disconnect.
Governor Gavin Newsom didn’t get the friendly interview he might have expected when he joined The Shawn Ryan Show.
Instead, he found himself pressed on the very issues that have defined…and haunted…his political career.
But things really unraveled when the topic turned to Covid.
Newsom fell back on the lines he’d used for years, praising the vaccine rollout and claiming it kept hospitals from being overrun.
“I think it prevented the acuity of the symptoms and disease, and kept people out of the emergency rooms,” he said.
“And I think that’s universally accepted by 90% of objective, of….uh….experts.”
But Ryan wasn’t some media anchor nodding along. He fired back with his own experience—blunt and undeniable.
“Man, I don’t know—I wound up getting the vaccine. It’s one of the only f*cking things I regret,” he said.
“And then I got f*cking Covid like a couple weeks later.”
The exchange was devastating for Newsom.
He had no comeback, just the same stale claim that “experts agree.”
The governor looked and sounded exactly like the politician who forced mandates on millions while ignoring anyone who pushed back….even when their own experience told them the promises didn’t hold up.
It was the moment Newsom’s polished veneer cracked.
Watching him try to explain why people should trust the same messaging that had failed so many times was downright painful.
But things really unraveled when the topic turned to Covid.
Newsom fell back on the lines he’d used for years, praising the vaccine rollout and claiming it kept hospitals from being overrun.
“I think it prevented the acuity of the symptoms and disease, and kept people out of… pic.twitter.com/SnkMs0iWxQ
Then came the biggest blow of all…and it didn’t even come from Shawn Ryan.
Joe Rogan sent in a question by text, and Ryan read it out in full, leaving Newsom nowhere to run.
It was a reckoning for the Covid mafia and Newsom himself.
“Who will be held accountable for mandating COVID-19 vaccines for children, which were unnecessary and ineffective, and who will take responsibility for the unprecedented increases in myocarditis and cancer cases among them?”
Rogan added another direct shot:
“Second to that, do you feel any remorse for that draconian decision that was obviously heavily influenced by the pharmaceutical companies’ desire for maximum profit?”
Newsom visibly struggled.
He didn’t deny the mandates or defend the decision directly.
Instead, he started pointing fingers at Trump and Republican governors who also rolled out vaccines…without addressing his own responsibility at all.
It was humiliating.
For once, there was no crowd of supportive journalists to clean it up for him, no carefully crafted press release to smooth it over.
Just an unfiltered moment of accountability, and he had nothing to say other than trying to defend failed policies and Covid talking points.
Then came the biggest blow of all…and it didn’t even come from Shawn Ryan.
Joe Rogan sent in a question by text, and Ryan read it out in full, leaving Newsom nowhere to run.
It was a reckoning for the Covid mafia and Newsom himself.
The embarrassment didn’t ease when the conversation switched to talking about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his vaccine stance during Covid.
Newsom tried to paint himself as the adult in the room.
“And so I respect Bobby, but he really turned on me early and he flat out lied about some things,” he said.
Ryan immediately pressed him: “What did he lie about?”
Newsom didn’t have a clean answer:
“He lied about…..said, oh because Newsom got some, I got sick for two or three days and he said because of a vaccine and then he lied about what I had….”
“He weaponized it. He misled.”
It sounded shaky, and Ryan let the awkwardness hang there.
He was stuttering and squirming slightly.
Then, almost unbelievably, Newsom tried to claim credit for RFK Jr.’s entire MAHA platform.
It was absurd.
“And I’m by the way, Make America Healthy, that’s California,” he said.
“I’ve been leading that cause for decades.”
“There’s no governor……again….I’m…forgive me….that movement started in California.”
“I did the Skittles ban a couple years ago.”
It was the kind of moment that would be funny if it weren’t so revealing…..a politician trying to claim a candy ban as proof he’d pioneered the entire idea of one of the greatest movements in political history.
The embarrassment didn't ease when the conversation switched to talking about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his vaccine stance during Covid.
Newsom tried to paint himself as the adult in the room.
“And so I respect Bobby, but he really turned on me early and he flat out lied about… pic.twitter.com/MULtGlVkc9
Beneath the polished facade of Canada’s healthcare system lies a dark truth: the Trudeau and Carney governments have betrayed their citizens, trading human lives for pharmaceutical profits. While thousands of Canadians suffer from documented vaccine injuries—heart damage, blood clots, immune destruction—the Liberal regime has quietly signed another $400 million deal with Pfizer and Moderna. This isn’t just negligence—it’s criminal collusion in the face of undeniable harm. Worse still, taxpayer-funded propaganda campaigns keep the masses compliant, while Ottawa buries adverse event reports and stalls compensation. The evidence is clear: Canada’s leaders are protecting Big Pharma—not the people.
Canadians have been subject countless boosters, coerced to death by discriminatory lockdowns that target the “unvaccinated.” Now all that medical tyranny and fraud is perpetuated by further contracts with the same bloody entities that caused all the hell.
Key points:
Secret contracts exposed: Despite halted booster programs, the Liberal government signed $400m in new COVID shot deals with Pfizer and Moderna in June 2025—yet no official announcement was made.
Injury cover-up continues: Canada’s Vaccine Injury Support Program (VISP) has approved only 234 claims out of 3,317 filed—while $33.7 million was wasted on administration instead of victims.
Government deception exposed: A leaked 2021 memo revealed Ottawa knew about vaccine harms but crafted “winning communication strategies” to deceive Canadians into compliance.
Blood clot warnings ignored: Studies link Pfizer and Moderna shots to deadly clots—yet regulators downplay risks as injuries mount.
Propaganda over truth: Health Canada spent $54 million pushing jabs to youth, while delaying payouts for heart failure, paralysis, and death.
A government that silences, not heals
Buried within Canada’s public health records lies a damning secret: senior officials knew COVID shots were maiming citizens—and actively worked to suppress the truth. Leaked documents reveal that Trudeau’s Privy Council Office crafted messaging to “prevent alarm” over vaccine injuries, admitting they could “shake public confidence.” Instead of pausing deadly injections, Ottawa doubled down—censoring dissent, bankrolling pro-vaccine propaganda (CBC received $1.75 million), and shielding Pfizer and Moderna from legal responsibility. This isn’t incompetence—it’s fraud.
Internal emails from Public Health Canada (PHAC) prove officials intentionally withheld adverse event reports—including myocarditis in teens and fatal blood clots—while forcing mandates on workplaces, schools, and travelers. When confronted with soaring injuries, federal health bureaucrats didn’t halt the shots—they expanded their injury compensation program… then starved it of funds.
“Less than 3 million has been paid to vaccine victims, while OxaroInc.—the consulting firm managing the program—pocketed 50.6 million.”
Meanwhile, Ottawa pumps millions into “Science Up First”—a taxpayer-funded initiative that bullies skeptics as “misinformation spreaders.” The CBC, reliant on federal dollars, amplifies government-approved “experts” while ignoring thousands of injured Canadians who are begging for justice.
Pfizer and Moderna’s deadly immunity
Canada’s contracts with Big Pharma were never about health—they were about profit protection. By stockpiling 293 million doses (enough to inject every citizen seven times), the Liberals guaranteed Pfizer and Moderna zero liability—even as young athletes dropped dead from heart inflammation and women suffered miscarriages post-jab. The real scandal? Pfizer and Moderna shots cause the same blood clots as AstraZeneca—yet Ottawa still pushes them.
4 in 1 million Pfizer/Moderna recipients develop CVST clots (nearly matching AstraZeneca’s rate).
795 VAERS reports linked mRNA shots to clotting disorders—yet only J&J faced scrutiny.
Physicians like Dr. Hooman Noorchashm have warned regulators for years: “I don’t know why thrombotic events are only flagged for J&J. VAERS is full of Pfizer and Moderna cases, but the FDA ignores them.”
Canadian health officials have responded with silence, followed by another $200 million handout.
While Ottawa funnels cash to pharmaceutical giants, Canadian families are left shattered. Ross Wightman, paralyzed by AstraZeneca, was offered pennies in compensation. Others—like young adults battling myocarditis—face lifetime disabilities. Yet the government’s answer is more jabs, more censorship, more lies. History will remember this era—not as a pandemic response, but as one of the greatest medical betrayals in Canadian history. The Canadian government owes vaccine injured citizens $400 million and then some, but it’s all going back into the corrupt entities that caused the problems. The question remains: How many more must suffer before the people of Canada overthrow their corrupt government?
Actor James Carter Cathcart; TV writer David Flebotte; filmmaker Tom Neuwirth; keyboardist David Kaff (Spinal Tap); footballer Luis Sharpe; hoopster Ryan Reid (38); bull rider Spud Jones (36); & more
‘Pokémon’ Voice Actor James Carter Cathcart Dead at 71
July 10, 2025
Voice actor James Carter Cathcart, famous for his work on “Pokémon,” is dead, TMZ has learned. James died Tuesday after a years-long battle with throatcancer, according to a family member. We’re told he died in hospice care in Forest Hills, New York. James was diagnosed with throat cancer back in2023 – he didn’t respond well to initial treatments and he needed more aggressive chemotherapy, and he retired from voice acting after finishing his work on the English dub of “Pokémon: Ultimate Journeys.” James was 71.
David Flebotte, Veteran TV Writer of ‘Ellen,’ ‘Desperate Housewives’ and ‘Boardwalk Empire,’ Dies at 65
July 9, 2025
David Flebotte, a TV writer/producer who wrote on such shows as “Desperate Housewives,” “Boardwalk Empire” and “The Sopranos,” has died at the age of 65. Flebotte received an Emmy nomination in 1999 in the Outstanding Animated Program category for his work on “The Pjs.” A cause of death was not given.
Tom Neuwirth, Cinematographer on ‘Cagney & Lacey,’ Dies at 78
July 9, 2025
Tom Neuwirth, the cinematographer who worked alongside his wife, history-making TV director Karen Arthur, on episodes of Cagney & Lacey and many other projects, has died. He was 78. Neuwirth died June 29 at his home in Manhattan, friend and producer Craig Anderson announced (they worked on six films together). No cause of death was revealed.
David Kaff, aka Spinal Tap Keyboardist Viv Savage, Dead at 79
July 14, 2025
David Kaff, known as Spinal Tap keyboardist Viv Savage in This Is Spinal Tap, has died at the age of 79. According to a statement from his band Mutual of Alameda’s Wild Kingdom, Kaff passed away peacefully in his sleep on July 11th.
Luis Sharpe, former Cardinals All-Pro tackle, dead at 65
July 13, 2025
Former NFL offensive tackle Luis Sharpe, a three-time Pro Bowler, died on Friday, his former team confirmed. He was 65. In the final years of his life, Sharpe spent time counseling patients in Detroit [MI] at a sobriety clinic. The three-time Pro Bowler also worked with the NFL to help former players with their health in their post-playing days.
Ryan Reid, former Florida State basketball player, dies at 38
July 10, 2025
Former Florida State basketball Ryan Reid died Wednesday, French professional basketball club SLUC Nancy Basket shared. Reid spent four seasons with the Seminoles from 2006-10 as a key piece in the earlier years of the Leonard Hamilton era. Seminoles coach Luke Loucks, a teammate of Reid’s from 2008 to 2010, shared news of Reid’s death in a social media post. Reid later played internationally in Canada, France, Japan and Puerto Rico. [He retired in 2019.]
Rodeo Superstar Spud Jones Has Died at the Age of 36 After Years as a Professional Bull Rider
July 9, 2025
You don’t necessarily have to have followed the rodeo and bull riding to have heard of the name Spud Jones. Those who did follow his decades-long career, however, were crushed to learn of his death on July 4, 2025. He was 36 years old. The country news-themed Instagram account Country Rebel shared more details about Spud’s death. In a post about the late rodeo star, the account shared photos of Spud and wrote in the caption that he “passed awayin his sleep after dealing with ongoing health issues.” No one from Spud’s family has publicly disclosed what health issues Spud was dealing with prior to his death.
Tony Basilicato, Performer from ‘The Muppet Movie,’ Has Passed Away
July 12, 2025
New Haven, Connecticut – A long-term Muppet performer has passed away. Tony Basilicato is known for 1979’s “The Muppet Movie.” He died on June 25 at the age of 70 [“passed away peacefully surrounded by family & close friends”]. After his work with The Muppets, Basilicato focused his attention on writing children’s books.
90 Day Fiancé Eric Rosenbrook and Leida Margaretha’s baby passed away July 9
July 10, 2025
The infant daughter of 90 Day Fiancé Season 6 couple Eric Rosenbrook and Leida Margaretha passed away on Wednesday, July 9 after five days onlife support. Eric made the announcement on Facebook earlier today. Leida has yet to post about her daughter’s passing on social media, but she indicated her daughter was having serious medical issues in a series of Instagram story posts over the past week.
Former Detroit Tigers pitcher Joe Coleman dead at 78
July 10, 2025
Former Detroit Tigers pitcher Joe Coleman died on Wednesday, July 9, in Jamestown, Tennessee, according to his son, Casey. Coleman was 78 years old. Coleman diedin his sleep on Wednesday morning, and the cause of deathhas not yet been determined.
David L. Hamilton Dies: Emmy-Nominated Composer & Founding Keyboardist For Pavlov’s Dog Was 74
July 10, 2025
David L. Hamilton, who co-founded and played keyboards for the prog-rock group Pavlov’s Dog before pivoting to a composing career and earning an Emmy nom, has died. He was 74. A rep for the family said he died June 20 but not give provide a cause or place ofdeath.
Andrea Gibson, poet and queer activist, dies at 49
July 14, 2025
Andrea Gibson, a spoken-word poet and queer activist, has died. She was 49 years old. Gibson died Monday morning in their Boulder, Colorado home from ovariancancer. Gibson was diagnosed in [August] 2021.
Researcher’s Note – Mar 27, 2021 @andreagibson: Got my first vaccine [sic] shot today. Was so emotional throughout, and having this option to check on the form made me weepy too: Link
Kabir Moss, a kind-hearted, principled, affable, talented rising star in New Jersey politics, died this morning. He was 37. A former college basketball star and Peace Corps volunteer, he came to New Jersey in 2018 to manage a Democratic freeholder race in Monmouth County, and then became deputy communications director for the New Jersey Senate Majority Office.
Monster Magnet founding drummer Tim Cronin dies at 63 after battle with ALS
July 9, 2025
Tim Cronin, founding member of Monster Magnet, has died at age 63 following a battle with ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis). Cronin was diagnosed with the progressive neurodegenerative disease earlier this year. A GoFundMe campaign launched for his care raised over $100,000 in support.
Popular DJ who vanished 3 weeks ago ID’d as man found dead on NYC houseboat: sources
July 8, 2025
A popular Big Apple DJ who mysteriously vanished three weeks ago has been identified by sources as the man discovered deadon a houseboat in Queens. Reda Briki, 52, was found unconscious and unresponsive by an acquaintance in the cabin of a boat docked at Railroad and Greenpoint avenues in Newton Creek Marina Sunday afternoon, sources said. Briki may have died about a week before his decomposed corpse was discovered, sources said, adding that he suffered no apparent signs of trauma and is not immediately believed to be the victim of a crime.
Fresno airport’s Director of Aviation has passed away
July 14, 2025
FRESNO, Calif. – The person in charge of Fresno’s airport, Director of Aviation Henry L. Thompson [59], has passed away, the City of Fresno confirmed on Monday. In a statement, Fresno’s city manager wrote that “it is with great sadness that we announce the unexpected passing of Henry L. Thompson.” Henry Thompson became Director of Aviation at the airport in December 2021. City officials say he was a leader “whose expertise and commitment helped guide the airport through significant growth and development.”
Vance Boelter’s Confession Letter Released After Murder IndictmentsA federal grand jury has handed down a sweeping indictment against 35-year-old Vance Boelter for his alleged role in the politically motivated killings of former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, as well as the attempted assassination of State Senator John Hoffman and his family. The shocking development follows a deadly rampage that rocked Minnesota in June …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Announces Trade Agreement with IndonesiaPresident Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a sweeping new trade agreement with Indonesia, marking a historic realignment of U.S. trade terms with the world’s fourth most populous country.“This morning I finalized an important Deal with the Republic of Indonesia after speaking with their Highly Respected President Prabowo Subianto,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “This landmark Deal opens up Indonesia’s ENTIRE …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Accuses Sen. Adam Schiff of Mortgage FraudPresident Donald Trump took aim at one of his longest-running enemies on Tuesday morning, accusing California Senator Adam Schiff of engaging in years of mortgage fraud to secure favorable loan terms on a Maryland property — even though he was a congressman from California at the time.The stunning accusation came in a now-deleted Truth Social post, a rare move from …READ THE FULL REPORT
Forensic Analysis Reveals Epstein Prison Video Had Nearly 3 Minutes Cut OutThe Department of Justice is once again under fire after WIRED confirmed the Epstein prison video was edited — cutting out nearly three full minutes on the night the disgraced pedophile was found dead.The revelation directly contradicts the DOJ’s claim that only a “one-minute gap” was missing due to a nightly security camera reset.“Approximately 2 minutes and 53 seconds were …READ THE FULL REPORT
Joe Rogan Rips DOJ’s Handling of Epstein files in Scathing Rant Against Trump AdminJoe Rogan is calling foul on the Trump administration’s sudden reversal on the Jeffrey Epstein case — and he’s not alone.On Tuesday’s episode of The Joe Rogan Experience, the top podcast host questioned how the FBI and DOJ went from claiming they had “thousands of hours” of Epstein tapes… to claiming nothing exists.“They’ve got videotape and all of a sudden …READ THE FULL REPORT
NEWSWIZE
LATEST NEWS
Supreme Court allows administration to proceed with plan to dismantle Department of EducationThe Supreme Court on Monday gave the green light for the Trump administration to restart his plan to dismantle the Department of Education and proceed with laying off nearly 1,400 employees. The decision came as part of an emergency appeal, with the Court’s conservative majority allowing the administration to move forward despite lower court rulings that had blocked the effort. …READ MORE
LA Mayor Launches Mind-Boggling Program for IllegalsLos Angeles Mayor Karen Bass recently unveiled a new initiative aimed at providing direct financial aid to illegal immigrant families impacted by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids. The program is part of an executive order directing all city departments to refuse cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, reinforcing the city’s sanctuary policies amid increasing ICE operations. The cash assistance program is designed …READ MORE
Fauci Faces Major Setback Amid New Eye-Opening ReportKentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R) has officially referred Dr. Anthony Fauci to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for a potential criminal investigation related to the legality of a last-minute presidential pardon. The pardon was reportedly signed using an autopen—a device that replicates a person’s signature—during former President Joe Biden’s final hours in office, sparking debate over whether proper procedures were followed.According …READ MORE
Media Giant Slaps Trump Admin With Explosive Lawsuit Over Shocking AllegationsThe Guardian has launched a lawsuit against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), accusing the agency of unlawfully withholding detailed arrest records requested through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The legal action raises questions about transparency and the enforcement priorities of the federal immigration system.In May 2025, The Guardian submitted a FOIA request seeking comprehensive data on ICE arrests.Until then, ICE …READ MORE
Controversial Blue State DA Sparks Outrage Over Bone-Chilling Child Safety CaseArapahoe County District Attorney Amy Padden is facing intense criticism after her office declined to prosecute a registered sex offender accused of attempting to abduct a child from a Colorado school playground. The case was dismissed after the suspect, 33-year-old Solomon Galligan, was declared mentally unfit to stand trial by court-appointed evaluators.The incident occurred in April 2024 at Black Forest Hills …READ MORE
———- Forwarded message ——— From: Newswize <mail@newswize.com> Date: Wed, Jul 16, 2025 at 7:43 AM Subject: ️ The FBI’s Jeffrey Epstein surveillance footage had nearly 3 minutes cut out To: Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com>
LATEST NEWSThe FBI’s Jeffrey Epstein surveillance footage had nearly 3 minutes cut outNew report reveals that nearly three minutes of “raw” surveillance footage from the outside of Epstein jail cell may have been cut out or altered before being released to the public by the Department of Justice (DOJ). The analysis, conducted by digital forensics experts from the WIRED, examined the metadata of the 11-hour surveillance video released by the DOJ. Contrary …READ MORERFK Jr. Leads Ice Cream Industry Overhaul in Push to Remove Artificial Dyes by 2027Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is leading a nationwide effort to remove artificial food dyes from ice cream, as part of his broader “Make America Healthy Again” campaign. The initiative, announced alongside the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), involves more than 40 ice cream manufacturers pledging to eliminate synthetic colors from their products by the end …READ MOREQuiet Blue State Town Shaken by Major Border Patrol IncidentU.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced Tuesday the detention of five Iranian nationals attempting to cross illegally from Canada into New York. The incident has intensified concerns about potential security risks linked to Iranian nationals entering the U.S.On July 1, agents from the Champlain, New York, Border Patrol Station, part of the Swanton Sector, responded to suspicious activity near Mooers …READ MOREElon Musk’s xAI Secures $200 Million Federal Contract Under Trump Admin Despite Growing TensionsElon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI, announced Monday that it has entered into a $200 million partnership with the Trump administration. The agreement will provide federal agencies, including the Department of Defense (DoD), access to xAI’s AI tools, notably the Grok chatbot.xAI made the announcement via its official X account, stating the launch of “Grok for Government,” a product suite designed …READ MOREICE Calls Out Blue State Rep After ‘Abominable’ Act ExposedImmigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials and Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA) publicly clashed following a recent enforcement operation in Carpinteria, California, which resulted in dozens of arrests and the rescue of migrant children. The confrontation escalated when ICE accused Carbajal of doxing an ICE agent during the protest—an action the agency claims led to the agent being injured.Last week, Carbajal took …READ MORE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, with the U.S. remaining the largest consumer.
The U.S. continues to lead the world in total oil production, contributing to a record global output despite a slowdown in its growth rate.
The 2025 Statistical Review reveals key shifts including declining production in Russia and Saudi Arabia, surging demand in India, and the significant rise of Guyana as an oil producer.
Each year, the Statistical Review of World Energy offers important insights into global energy trends. Now published by the Energy Institute in collaboration with KPMG and Kearney, the 2025 edition—reflecting full-year 2024 data—reveals that global oil production and consumption remained relatively steady, but there are meaningful shifts underway.
These shifts reflect not only changing geopolitics and economic recovery patterns but also longer-term questions around energy security, investment priorities, and the uneven global evolution toward decarbonization.
Global Oil Consumption Hits New High
In 2024, global oil consumption–which excludes biofuels but includes coal and natural gas derivatives–reached 101.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The represents an all-time high that slightly surpassed the 2023 level by 0.7%. On average, oil demand has increased by 1% per year over the past decade, driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries.
The U.S. remains the world’s largest oil consumer, accounting for 18.7% of global demand. Daily consumption in the U.S. fell slightly from 2023, but over the past decade it increased by 0.5% per year on average.
China was the world’s second-largest oil consumer, accounting for 16.1% of global demand. Its daily consumption fell 1.2% to 16.4 million bpd in 2024. This decline is a marked departure from the average 4% gain per year over the past decade, which means China’s oil demand may be showing signs of plateauing. With economic growth slowing and a push toward electrification of transportation underway, some analysts speculate China may be approaching its long-term oil demand peak.
Meanwhile, India’s oil consumption continues to surge, jumping 3.1% year-over-year to 5.6 million bpd. The nation’s economic expansion and rising middle class continue to drive growth, putting India on track to become the third-largest oil consumer globally within a few years.
OECD nations saw modest changes in oil demand (+0.1%) while non-OECD nations saw demand jump by 1.2%.
U.S. Leads All Producers to New Record
On the production side, global oil output (including natural gas liquids and other liquids) hit a record 96.9 million barrels per day. That’s 1.8 million barrels more than the pre-pandemic peak, and about 9% higher than the lows seen during the COVID-19 downturn. On the surface, it’s a story of resilience and recovery. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers reveal a more complicated picture.
The United States continues to lead the world in total oil production, clocking in at 20.1 million barrels per day. But that headline figure includes a sizable share of natural gas liquids—byproducts like ethane and propane that aren’t typically directly used as transportation fuels but may function as refinery feedstock.
Strip those out, and U.S. production of crude oil and condensate—the type of output most analysts consider “true oil”—comes in at 13.2 million barrels per day. Although this was yet another production record, the 2% increase from 2023 was less than half the 4.2% average annual gain over the previous decade, which could be an indication that U.S. production is close to a plateau.
Russia follows in second place at 10.2 million barrels per day of crude plus condensate. That was down 3.1% from 2023, largely due to the impact of Western sanctions and logistical constraints. However, Russian exports to China and India remained robust, helping the country maintain relevance in global energy markets despite diplomatic isolation.
Saudi Arabia also saw production fall by 4.2%. Saudi was in third place in 2024 with 9.2 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2011. The drop reflects both voluntary production cuts to support prices and long-term questions about the Kingdom’s spare capacity amid heavy domestic investments in refining and petrochemicals.
Proved Reserves
The Statistical Review also sheds light on global oil reserves, although those are only available for the end of 2020. At that time, the world’s proven oil reserves stood at 1.7 trillion barrels—enough to sustain current production levels for roughly 53.5 years. However, the distribution of those reserves remains highly uneven.
Venezuela still holds the largest proved reserves, at 304 billion barrels, but much of that oil is heavy and difficult to extract. Saudi Arabia is second with 298 billion barrels, followed by Iran at 158 billion. The U.S., by contrast, holds 69 billion barrels—reflecting both a mature production base and a reserve classification system that tends to be more conservative.
Unusual Developments and Emerging Themes
A few notable trends emerged from this year’s data:
Saudi Arabia’s Output Decline: The drop in Saudi production is significant not only because it’s the lowest in more than a decade, but also because it signals a shift in how the Kingdom may balance price stability with market share.
U.S. Efficiency and NGLs: While the U.S. continues to be the top oil producer, a growing share of that output is in the form of natural gas liquids, which are not suitable for all applications and require different refining infrastructure. This evolution has implications for and refining strategies.
Flat Growth in Global Reserves: The relative lack of reserve growth despite strong consumption reflects an investment hesitancy across much of the industry. This could pose long-term supply challenges if demand doesn’t moderate.
India’s Ascent: India’s rise as a major demand center—with relatively little domestic production—makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the oil market. Its policy choices on storage, refining, and renewables will shape future demand dynamics.
Guyana’s Rise: Guyana’s meteoric rise from zero to over 600,000 barrels daily in just five years is one of the fastest production ramps in oil industry history. With reserves now estimated at 11 billion barrels, Guyana is projected to reach 1 million barrels daily soon, potentially becoming a top-five global producer within the decade.
Outlook: Stability or Strain?
Oil markets in 2024 were defined by an uneasy equilibrium. On the one hand, production and consumption were closely matched, and price volatility was relatively contained. On the other, the factors holding that balance together—OPEC+ coordination, U.S. shale resilience, and subdued global demand growth—are all subject to disruption.
Looking ahead, several questions loom:
Will China’s oil demand begin to decline in absolute terms?
Can U.S. shale sustain output without massive reinvestment?
Will geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Russia, or elsewhere upset the delicate supply-demand balance?
These aren’t just market questions—they are strategic ones that affect global inflation, trade, and energy security.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Statistical Review confirms that oil is still very much at the center of the global economy. Demand is growing in the developing world, production remains concentrated among a handful of players, and supply vulnerabilities persist.
In the coming weeks, I’ll continue to unpack key findings from the Statistical Review, including natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear power trends. But one thing is clear from the oil data: in a world increasingly focused on energy transition, the importance of oil—economically and geopolitically—hasn’t gone anywhere.
END
USA rigs in decline and that should bolster demand as supply will fall.
WTI Holds Losses After Surprise Crude Draw As Rig Count Decline Rejects ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 10:40 AM
Crude futures are lower for a third session in a row with the market refocusing on supply and demand balances after putting concerns about U.S. tariffs and Russia sanctions on hold, and API reporting another build in crude (and gasoline) stocks – the third straight weekly rise in inventories.
While global crude inventories have been swelling in recent months, the bulk of the accumulation has come in markets that have relatively little impact on futures prices, according to Morgan Stanley.
The premiums traders are paying for more immediate supplies, a pattern known as backwardation, signal strong short-term demand.
API
Crude +800k
Cushing +100k
Gasoline +1.9mm
Distillates +800k
DOE
Crude -3.86mm
Cushing +213k
Gasoline +3.39mm
Distillates +4.17mm
The official data reversed API’s guess with a sizable Crude inventory draw (ending the short streak of builds), but products stocks soared…
US Crude production remains at or near record highs as rig counts continue to tumble despite Trump’s ‘drill baby drill’ mantra…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI was trading lower ahead of the official data and shows no signs of life post…
Source: Bloomberg
Price gauges indicate that availability is tight for the time being, with a premium of 81 cents on the international benchmark’s prompt spread, and US distillate inventories, which include diesel, touching the lowest level since 2005.
“The Brent futures curve remains firmly in backwardation across the first four-to-six months — a structure that usually points to market tightness,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats said in a note, which highlighted what they described as an uneven distribution of inventory increases.
“The builds have been in the Pacific, but Brent is priced in the Atlantic,” they said.
Oil has traded in a tight range over the past three weeks as strong summer demand is being matched with rising supply. OPEC+ has been adding 411,000 barrels per day to the market in monthly tranches that began in May and will boost that by 548,000 bpd in August.
The additional supply is boosting inventories.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
BRICS/USA
Escobar: Trump Terrified By BRICS Strategic Threat
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
This is it. The ruling classes of the Empire of Chaos, plus the current, clownish Circus Ringmaster have finally realized that BRICS is a serious strategic threat – and existential challenge – to their unilateral domination of the current system of international relations.
They didn’t come to this conclusion by carefully scrutinizing the BRICS annual summit in Rio – or last year’s ground-breaking summit in Kazan for that matter: they are lousy at doing basic homework.
It’s more like they were awakened from their torpor by feeling in their skins which way the – global – wind is blowing, in terms of all sorts of models being tested to bypass the U.S. dollar and the iron-clad control of the Bretton Woods institutions.
The conclusion was inescapable: BRICS have crossed the ultimate red line. No more Mr. Nice Guy talk shop. The 130-plus point Rio declaration, released at the first day of the summit, spells it out, politely but decisively: this is what we are, a systemic alternative; and we’re going to write the rules of the new system our way.
Building the Geopolitics of Sovereignty
BRICS 2025 in Rio was a stunning surprise. Expectations initially were low – when comparing the meek Brazilian presidency with the extraordinary amount of work put out by Russia in 2024 leading to Kazan.
Yet in the end Rio coalesced what Kazan had announced: the new, rising system will be all about sovereignty, equality, and fairness – with emphasis on continental-wide economic integration; trade in national currencies; an expanded role for new global financial institutions such as the NDB (the BRICS bank); and myriad platforms for sustainable development.
A Geopolitics of Sovereignty has to be structurally constructed: the iron and cement for the new system will come from a new interconnection of trade in national currencies, independent payment/settlement systems, and new investment platforms.
Geo-economically, BRICS is already on a roll. A quick glance of a map of Eurasia, and Afro-Eurasia, will suffice to convey the existing and emerging interconnection of connectivity, logistics and supply chain corridors. Across BRICS lands, those tie up energy sources, rare earth deposits, and a wealth of agricultural commodities.
To quote the Godfather of Soul James Bown, Papa’s got a brand new (BRICS) bag.
Hence it’s no wonder that a tawdry incarnation of the White Man’s Burden, the Circus Ringmaster, has unleashed Full War on BRICS and its partners – from threats to tariffs, complete with a previous death certificate (at the time he was even more clueless on what BRICS is all about).
The serial Trump Tariff Temper Tantrum (TTT) is of course another manifestation of Divide and Rule, trying to blow up BRICS from the inside. And now we’re up several notches, with a trademark childish letter threatening 50% tariffs on all Made in Brazil products exported to the U.S. – plus extra “sectoral” tariffs.
And yet this has nothing to do with trade. Over the past 15 years, the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil is over a hefty $400 billion. Some Trump 2.0 underling should have whispered that number into his boss’s ear.
But even if they did, that’s irrelevant. Because the latest gimmick actually constitutes a crass foreign interference in another nation’s domestic politics and upcomig presidential race, illegal and predictably once again making a mockery of international law.
The Circus Ringmaster started by hollering in his posts that the Lula government – and the independent Brazilian judicial system – had been involved in a witch hunt against his buddy, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is being legally prosecuted under charges of staging a coup to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election and prevent Lula from taking power.
It was up to not so smooth operator Steve Bannon to give the whole tawdry game away: if you ditch the prosecution of Bolsonaro, we ditch the 50% tariffs.
President Lula’s response has been measured, but firm: “Brazil’s trade with the U.S. makes up just 1.7% of our GDP. You can’t call these figures vital (…) We will look for other partners“.
Of course it will be very tough. A 50% tariff is like a deadly hurricane. Example: Brazil is the largest global exporter of orange juice. 95% of indigenous production is exported, nearly half to the U.S. It will take some time and lot of hard work to find “other partners”. The solution may lie across BRICS lands. In time, there should be plenty of candidates for top Brazilian exports such as oil, steel, iron, planes and parts, coffee, timber, meat and soy.
Unionizing every exporter in the world against U.S. importers
In parallel, the top two BRICS actors, China and Russia – both already under zillions of sanctions (Russia) and trade tariffs (China) – see the Trump TTT as a spectacular opportuniy ahead for undermining even faster the unilateral U.S. grip on trade and currency systems.
The war on BRICS has gone up to the next level, now that Russia, China, Iran and Brazil are all confirmed – illegitimate – targets. It’s up to this Sri Lanka viewpoint to delightfully summarize the stakes:
“Trump has effectively unionized every exporter in the worldagainstAmerican importers.” It comes down to a quite simple equation: “If you tariff one person, more power to you. But it you tariff everyone, more power to us.”
“More power to us” translates into BRICS and the wider Global South perfectly aware there’s no way out except full steam ahead for the BRICS project, culminating in full de-dollarization. From Kazan to Rio and beyond, it’s now also clear that out of control TTT will target any nation or partner that aligns with “anti-American” BRICS.
You want war? Bring it on.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
end
ROBERT H
Embrace tomorrow
In the West we see the world through our eyes and glasses. Rarely, does one try to see the world from the eyes of others. While it was customary to ignore the world from a unique unipolar perspective when America led the West in western imperialism; the world has moved on. Decades of using China for cheap labor kept goods cheap offering a time to think that prosperity would continue unabated.
But this was a clear classical mistake. It was forgotten that the key to success was leading in business by innovation. This critical element was given away by Wall Street greed for quarterly profits over long term investment. Thus America and others were hollowed out for the sake of cash ( profits). Just like the middle class got squeezed in the process. Uncaringly forgotten by an elite class blind to the creation of competition that now says PISS OFF, it is our turn. Thus be not surprised at what happened today.
President Xi Jinping of China, who met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov of Russia, made some stark remarks about the United States and Europe today.
He said “China and Russia are not building an alliance. We are building a new global reality. The West must either adapt or disappear.” UNDERSTAND? This is how they think and the BRICS is no joke. It is the Global South wanting its time in the sun which will come at the expense of Western nations and daily life. Germany and France etc are headed for a crisis of solvency. At a time when everything has changed. War with Russia may indeed serve as an excuse for debt avoidance but it will not build strength.
He continued: “The West wants others to live in perpetual poverty so that their banks remain rich.”
Then, the big remark: speaking before Lavrov and Iran Foreign Minister Araqchi, Xi Jinping declared: “We do not seek to rule the world… only to liberate it from those who believe they own it.”
He’s talking about us; the United States and Europe.
Are we ready? Because Xi just told everyone the gloves are off! The entire Global South wanting change heard him loud and clear. Have no doubt that he and everyone else is serious and will fight for their time to rise. Whether the West can fight it has the will remains to be seen. Because we can be sure we will see the results of this clash for hegemony in a multipolar world. No amount of threats or intimidation will change the realities. Because even in technology we are sorely vulnerable and behind.
end
CANADA
Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced new measures he says are aimed at protecting Canada’s steel industry that include targeting metal that comes from China.
The new measures include restricting and reducing the amount of foreign steel imports entering Canada.
Countries without a free trade agreement with Canada are likely to feel the biggest change, with Canada changing its tariff-rate quota from 100 per cent to just 50 per cent of 2024 volumes.
Any imports that fall above that rate will also face a 50 per cent tariff.
Additional duties will also be imposed on 25 per cent of steel imports from all non-U.S. countries that contain steel melted and poured in China before the end of July.
But it’s not just countries without an agreement, non-U.S. partners that have a trade deal will face a quota of 100 per cent of 2024 volumes, with a 50 per cent duty applied for anything above that level.
“The trade actions of the United States are further transforming global steel market dynamics and supply chains,” Carney said. “Let’s be clear, Canada will be one of the countries most impacted by these developments.
“Moving forward, we must diversify our trade relationships and above all, we must rely more on Canadian steel for Canadian projects and those shifts start today in an increasingly unpredictable and unreliable world.”
0:53Carney says talks will ‘intensify’ as he meets with cabinet amid Trump’s 35% tariffs
He told reporters there are no immediate plans to change counter-tariffs on the U.S. Carney also said his government would reassess all existing trade arrangements with respect to steel “consistent” with ongoing negotiations with the U.S.
All steel-related negotiations the U.S. is undertaking with other countries will also be taken into account, Carney said, “because what happens in those will affect what happens here.”
The prime minister said when countries face high tariffs in the U.S., products like steel are then pushed into Canada.
“One of the consequences of those very high tariffs is it pushes product, steel in this case, and their derivatives into a Canadian market that has historically been quite open,” Carney said. “So it’s important that we protect our market from those secondary effects, if you will, from the U.S. negotiations.”
The prime minister also underscored his previous comments that Canada would ensure Canadian steel and other materials would be prioritized in construction of major, national projects.
2:04Carney says tariff-free trade deal with U.S. is unlikely
Carney also announced various training initiatives and innovation funding.
Up to 10,000 steel workers impacted by the ongoing trade war will receive training and income supports through $70 million in funding.
Another $1 billion will also be put towards the Strategic Innovation Fund to help steel companies.
The announcement Wednesday comes more than a month since U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25 to 50 per cent.
It also comes slightly more than a week since Trump announced non-CUSMA exempt Canadian goods would face a tariff of 35 per cent starting Aug. 1.
On Tuesday, Carney said negotiations with the U.S. would “intensify” as the Aug. 1 date draws near, but also told reporters it was unlikely any deal would not include some tariffs.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1621 UP 0.0014 PTS OR 14 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.80 UP 0.022 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3398 UP .0005 OR 5 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3713 UP 0.0004(CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 1.22 PTS OR 0.03%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 72.36 PTS OR 0.29%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.66%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 72.36 PTS OR 0.29%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.22 PTS OR 0.03%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.66 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 218.40 PTS OR 0,55%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3340.30
silver:$37.99
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.21 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.128% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.563% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS AND 01/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.293 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.567 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.685 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1582 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.82 UP 0.051 OR YEN IS DOWN 63 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6240 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts to 1.3734
PPI, Powell, & Pro-Crypto Bill Passage Spark Chaos Across Capital Markets
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Hot (well, cold) on the heels of yesterday’s cooler than expected Core CPI, this morning’s Producer Prices also showed no signs of the terrifying tariff-flation that all the PhD economists and their pet rabbits were sure was imminent.
The day was dominated by Producer Prices, Powell vs Trump, and pro-crypto bills in Washington.
The first two of those factors raises two questions for The Fed Chair:
Dear Mr. Powell… explain why you cut rates ahead of the election (and not now) when inflation signals were dramatically higher than they are now…
Source: Bloomberg
Dear Mr. Powell… explain why you cut rates then (and not now) while growth macro data is considerably weaker than it was then…
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed’s Bostic summarizes the implicit bias succinctly (but, but, but data-dependent?)…
*FED’S BOSTIC: WE’RE SEEING SIGNS INFLATION PRESSURES ARE UP
*FED’S BOSTIC: WE MAY BE AT INFLECTION POINT FOR INFLATION
*FED’S BOSTIC: MAY BE 2026 BEFORE WE SEE FULL TARIFF EFFECTS
*FED’S BOSTIC: RIGHT NOW, I’D WAIT ON CUTTING INTEREST RATES
Talking of Mr. Powell – he was at the center of today’s chaos as early in the day, headlines from CBS/NYT reporting that Trump is looking to fire Fed Chair Powell (not exactly new news) prompted selling in stocks and a bid for crypto and gold. Bonds were mixed with the short-end bid (as rate cut odds rose) awhile the long-end yields rose (inflationary doves).
Shortly after the headlines from CBS and NYT, Trump denied the reports saying from The Oval Office that he had no plans to fire Powell (yet), and the markets reverted rapidly from their kneejerk moves.
US Majors reversed those early Powell/Trump losses with Small Caps outperforming (and Nasdaq the laggard, just barely breaking even)
Goldman’s trading desk notes that there was elevated ETF volumes today / currently 37% of the overall tape and the highest we’ve seen in weeks, but a big drop off in liquidity, top of book $6.8mm on the touch vs $10.45mm yst.
Goldman’s hedge fund performance proxy (VIP Longs vs Most Shorted ‘shorts’) is now in the red for the year…
Source: Bloomberg
As the massive short squeeze continues (lifting ‘most shorted’ stocks to three year highs), although today’s activity was chaotic in this basket…
Source: Bloomberg
The market has become a daily zero-volume race between the momentum and the most shorted factors of which will push stonks to a daily record high
The market has become a daily zero-volume race between the momentum and the most shorted factors of which will push stonks to a daily record high
Notably, momentum stocks recovered last week’s losses
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the “Gamma Agent” (Nomura’s Charlie McElligott’s nickname for Trump) striking today, the overall market’s positive gamma profile helped with the ‘reversion’ in today’s price action (and not the negative gamma ‘extension’ impact we have seen recently)
Treasury trading was wild too today with yields lower across the curve but the short-end notably outperforming (2Y -bps), 30Y -1bps). That dragged the 2Y down to unchanged on the week while 30Y yields are up 6bps…
Source: Bloomberg
…as rate-cut expectations traded chaotically with 2025 odds spiking (then pulling back) while 2026 expectations tumbled late on…
Source: Bloomberg
The 30Y Yield topped 5.00% kneejerking on the Powell headlines…
Source: Bloomberg
With the yield curve notably steeper…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was even more sensitive to the reports of Powell’s imminent firing (and then denial). Bloomberg’s Dollar Index puked on the initial Powell headline and retraced higher on the denials (but ended lower)…
Source: Bloomberg
Mirroring that miasma was gold which spiked significantly on the initial Powell reports then tumbled back (but ended green on the day)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices roundtripped to a modestly green close, tumbling overnight (MidEast tensions reigniting) before inventories (surprise crude draw) sparked a bid…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was very active today with bitcoin bouncing back after the House passed a procedural vote for “Crypto Week’…
Source: Bloomberg
And Ethereum soared above $3370…
Source: Bloomberg
…as ETH notably outperformed BTC once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, ETH continues to track higher forward inflation expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
…and BTC is tracking lagged global liquidity on its way to $200k…
Source: Bloomberg
Will ‘Crypto Week’ keep the bulls happy… or will Washington steal the jam from their donut?
BIG NEWS/NON NEWS
Trump Sparks Market Chaos: Denies CBS Reports Of Imminent Firing Of ‘Knucklehead’ Powell
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 11:25 AM
Update (1200ET): Well that didn’t take long. President Trumpo was asked in the Oval Office whether he was looking to fire Powell ‘soon’.
He responded ‘no’…
*TRUMP: POWELL ‘TERRIBLE’ FED CHAIR
*TRUMP, ASKED IF HE WILL FIRE POWELL: HE HAS BEEN TOO LATE
*TRUMP: POWELL TRIED TO CUT RATES FOR DEMOCRATS
*TRUMP: POWELL DOES A TERRIBLE JOB, WE FIGHT THROUGH IT
*TRUMP, ASKED IF HE WILL FIRE POWELL: ‘NOT PLANNING’
*TRUMP: NOT TALKING ABOUT FIRING POWELL
*TRUMP ON FIRING POWELL: HIGHLY UNLIKELY
*TRUMP DENIES DRAFTING LETTER TO FIRE POWELL
*TRUMP: POWELL A ‘KNUCKLEHEAD’
And all those moves in markets below reversed!!!
* * *
Initially CBS reported that President trump spoke to a group of GOP lawmakers about firing Fed Chair Powell (and markets reacted modestly), but now Bloomberg reports that a White House official confirms Powell’s outser is imminent.
While the lawmakers voiced support for the move, which would likely roil financial markets and lead to a consequential legal showdown, Trump has not made a final decision and could change his mind, according to the official who requested anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
The NYTimes reports, according to two people briefed on the meeting, President Trump showed off a draft of a letter firing the Powell during a meeting with roughly a dozen House Republicans on Tuesday night, polling them as to whether he should do it and indicating that he likely would.
Some advisers to and allies of Mr. Trump insist he’s simply trolling Mr. Powell and hoping to torment the Fed chair but won’t actually follow through with trying to fire him.
In seeking to fire him, Trump would test the legal bounds of his authority over the central bank and independent federal agencies more broadly.
In recent days, Trump has lambasted Powell over renovations at the central bank that the president and his allies have seized on, arguing that the work has been plagued by cost overruns and is exorbitantly lavish for a government office building.
Trump suggested that the renovation costs were “pretty disgraceful.”
Asked if it was a fireable offense by reporters on Tuesday, Trump responded “I think it sort of is,” but stopped short of saying he planned to push out the Fed chief over the flap.
“I think he’s a total stiff, but the one thing I didn’t see him as is the guy that needed a palace to live in,” Trump said.
Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican who was among the holdouts on the cryptocurrency bill, wrote on social media that she was “Hearing Jerome Powell is getting fired! From a very serious source.”
In a later post, she wrote, “I’m 99% sure firing is imminent.”
The reaction was swift with stocks tumbling…
The bond market is swinging wildly with the short-end bid and long-end yields oaring (major steepening)
Rate-cut expectations are spiking…
Gold soaring…
And bitcoin bid…
The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal…
“If Trump fires Powell and puts someone in place to bully the Fed into cutting rates, the bond market would react poorly to that — it would sell off and yields would go up,” said Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research.
“We’ve already seen an example” of what might happen, he said, pointing to the jump in 10-year Treasury yields in late 2024 that came alongside Fed rate cuts.
The market was “basically saying to the Fed you have the wrong policy — the economy doesn’t need extra stimulus. That’s what would happen now.”
Market chaos is certainly a decent distraction from the Epstein ‘hoax’?
USA DATA RELEASES
this is good: PPI quite low
(zerohedge)
Cool’ US Producer Prices Blow Up Tariff-Flation Narrative
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 08:39 AM
Following yesterday’s ‘mixed’ CPI, all eyes are on the Producer Prices prints this morning for signs that the inflation pipeline is hotting up (or not)… and the print confirms – it’s not hotting up.
Headline and core PPI printed cooler than expected (unchanged MoM), well below the expected +0.2% MoM (in fact it was lower than all estimates)
Headline PPI rose 2.3% YoY (down from a revised higher 2.7% in May and below the 2.5% expected) – that is the lowest YoY print since Sept 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
On a MoM basis, Services PPI ‘deflated’…
Source: Bloomberg
And on a YoY basis, Energy prices continue to ‘deflate’…
Source: Bloomberg
Final demand goods:
Prices for final demand goods rose 0.3 percent in June, the largest increase since moving up 0.3 percent in February. Over half of the broad-based advance in June can be traced to the index for final demand goods less foods and energy, which climbed 0.3 percent. Prices for final demand energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.6 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Within the index for final demand goods in June, prices for communication and related equipment increased 0.8 percent. The indexes for gasoline; residential electric power; canned, cooked, smoked, or prepared poultry; meats; and tree nuts also moved higher. In contrast, prices for chicken eggs dropped 21.8 percent. The indexes for natural gas liquids and for thermoplastic resins and plastics materials also declined.
Final demand services:
Prices for final demand services edged down 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.4 percent in May. Leading the decrease, the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing declined 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.9 percent, while margins for final demand trade services were unchanged. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)
Product detail: Over half of the June decline in the index for final demand services can be attributed to prices for traveler accommodation services, which fell 4.1 percent. The indexes for automobiles and automobile parts retailing, deposit services (partial), airline passenger services, and food and alcohol wholesaling also decreased. Conversely, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.2 percent. The indexes for machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; furniture retailing; and apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing also rose.
But will the energy component start to rise next month?
Core PPI also printed cooler than expected, down to just 2.6% YoY. Core PPI YoY was last lower than this is March 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
The pipeline for PPI is picking with Intermediate Demand Goods prices picking up…
Source: Bloomberg
Margin pressure lifted this month…
Source: Bloomberg
So much for the terrifying threat of tariff-flation… or will we just have to wait for next month to see the full horror.. or the next month?
END
US Industrial Production Surges In June
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 09:23 AM
US Industrial production rose significantly more than expected in June (+0.3% MoM vs +0.1% MoM exp) with May’s 0.2% MoM decline revised up to unchanged. This left Industrial production up 0.73% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Drilling down, we see Manufacturing output also jump in June (+0.1% vs 0.0% exp), lifting the YoY growth to +0.8%…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, Capacity Utilization ticked up very modestly but remains in a downtrend…
Source: Bloomberg
…so much for the post-tariff-front-running hangover?
END
Beige Book Spells Trouble For Powell: Mentions Of “Inflation” Tumble To 4 Year Low, As Growth Concerns Mount
Wednesday, Jul 16, 2025 – 03:25 PM
Many were shocked (again) after the latest CPI and PPI data confirmed that the experts were once again dead wrong, and instead of the widely expected inflation tsunami, Trump’s tariffs have so far sparked only continued disinflation (which will only become more acute as home prices slide). And yet, anyone who read our Beige Book analysis from April (not to mention our accurate prediction from last June that “The Experts Are All Wrong About Inflation Under A Trump Presidency“) would have known just that: as we laid out, “Beige Book Finds Inflation Mentions Tumble To 3 Year Low” which was the clearest indication that despite the prevailing narrative, rising prices is simply not a thing businesses across the US are worried about. We got further confirmation of this last month, when the latest Beige Book found no runaway inflation (again) but instead that sentiment in the economy splitting along party lines.
Fast forward to today when the latest, July, Beige Book was released, and it revealed that according to reports across the 12 Fed districts, “economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July.” Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts (New York and Philadelphia, naturally democrat strongholds) noted modest declines in activity. That, the Beige Book admitted, represented an improvement over the previous report, in which half of Districts reported at least slight declines in activity.
The Beige Book said that all Districts reported that while economic activity rebounded, uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses. Nonauto consumer spending declined in most Districts, softening slightly overall (hardly a signal of an imminent inflationary burst). Auto sales receded modestly on average, after consumers had rushed to buy vehicles earlier this year to avoid tariffs. Tourism activity was mixed, manufacturing activity edged lower, and nonfinancial services activity was little changed on average but varied across Districts.
Meanwhile, offsetting some of the economic slowdown, loan volume increased slightly in most Districts. On the flip side, construction activity slowed somewhat, constrained by rising costs in some Districts while home sales were flat or little changed in most Districts, and nonresidential real estate activity was also mostly steady. Activity in the agriculture sector remained weak. Energy sector activity declined slightly, and transportation activity was mixed.
Overall, the outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, as only two Districts expected activity to increase, and others foresaw flat or slightly weaker activity.
Focusing on labor markets, the Beige book reported the following:
Employment increased very slightly overall, with one District noting modest increases, six reporting slight increases, three no change, and two noting slight declines.
Hiring remained generally cautious, which many contacts attributed to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty.
Labor availability improved for many employers, with further reductions in turnover rates and increased job applications.
A growing number of Districts cited labor shortages in the skilled trades.
Several Districts also mentioned reduced availability of foreign-born workers, attributed to changes in immigration policy.
Employers in a few Districts ramped up investments in automation and AI aimed at reducing the need for additional hiring.
Wages increased modestly overall, extending recent trends, with reports that ranged from flat wages to moderate growth.
Although reports of layoffs were limited in all industries, they were somewhat more common among manufacturers.
Looking ahead, many contacts expected to postpone major hiring and layoff decisions until uncertainty diminished.
As for prices, it should come as no surprise by now that the runaway inflation everyone was expecting just isn’t there. Here is Beige book confirmation:
Prices increased across Districts, with seven characterizing price growth as moderate and five characterizing it as modest, mostly similar to the previous report.
In all twelve Districts, businesses reported experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.
Rising insurance costs represented another widespread source of pricing pressure.
Many firms passed on at least a portion of cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges, although some held off raising prices because of customers’ growing price sensitivity, resulting in compressed profit margins.
Contacts in a wide range of industries expected cost pressures to remain elevated in the coming months, and yet despite expecting just that for months now, there has been zero abnormal tariff-driven inflation of note yet.
In short, for yet another month, the sky is not falling.
Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:
New York: Economic activity continued to decline modestly as heightened uncertainty hindered decision-making. Employment was up slightly and wage growth was modest. Selling price increases remained moderate, while input prices rose steeply with widespread tariff-related cost increases.
Philadelphia: Business activity continued to decline modestly in the current Beige Book period. Activity fell moderately for nonmanufacturers but edged up slightly for manufacturers. Employment declined slightly, while wages increased slightly. Prices rose modestly after moderate growth last period. Generally, firms expect slight growth over the next six months, although economic uncertainty remains.
Cleveland: District business activity continued to be flat in recent weeks, but contacts expected activity to increase slightly in the months ahead. Several manufacturers reported softer orders, and transportation contacts reported a steep decline in demand. Contacts said that cost growth remained robust while their selling prices only increased modestly.
Richmond: The regional economy grew moderately in recent weeks. Consumer spending on retail, leisure, and hospitality increased at a modest to moderate rate. Business conditions were largely unchanged as firms across most sectors reported steady sales and demand. However, manufacturing activity contracted slightly with firms citing higher prices curtailing demand in recent weeks. Employment rose modestly and price growth remained moderate this cycle.
Atlanta: The economy of the Sixth District was little changed. Labor markets and wages were steady. Prices rose moderately. Consumer spending softened, but travel and tourism increased modestly. Residential and commercial real estate activity declined. Transportation activity grew modestly. Loan growth was flat. Manufacturing was flat, but energy activity rose moderately.
Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly. Employment increased modestly; consumer spending, business spending, and construction and real estate activity were flat; manufacturing declined slightly; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in activity. Prices rose moderately, wages rose modestly, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2025 farm income were unchanged.
St. Louis: Economic activity has remained unchanged. Employment levels were generally unchanged. Prices continued to increase moderately, and most contacts continued to expect higher nonlabor costs in the coming months as a result of tariffs. The outlook among contacts remains highly uncertain and slightly pessimistic.
Minneapolis: Economic activity was flat overall. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was moderate. Price growth eased but manufacturers felt more acute pressures. Overall consumer spending was down but tourism activity increased. Construction and energy activity decreased while manufacturing and vehicle sales were flat.
Kansas City: Economic activity in the Tenth District was mostly unchanged, with some rebound in consumer spending and financial activities. Labor availability was reportedly much higher, which lowered expected wage pressures for the remainder of the year. Prices rose at a moderate pace.
Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District economy was up slightly over the reporting period. Non-financial services activity grew modestly, and manufacturing production held steady. Loan volumes expanded, while oil production was flat, retail sales declined, and the housing market weakened. Employment was unchanged and price pressures held steady. Outlooks remained pessimistic.
San Francisco: Economic activity was largely stable. Employment levels were slightly lower. Wages grew at a slight pace and prices increased modestly. Retail sales expanded modestly, and consumer and business services demand eased. Conditions in manufacturing, and residential real estate markets weakened somewhat. Lending activity and conditions in agriculture were largely unchanged.
And finally, confirming that contrary to conventional wisdom the economic picture has been largely unchanged since April, the latest Beige Book found that contrary to prevailing media narratives, mentions of inflation actually dropped again, sliding to a new four year low of just 5 from 10 the previous month (effectively before the Biden inflationary explosion period) while mentions of “slow” rose to the highest since last October, just after the Powell Fed cut rates by 50bps. Overall, a very awkward report for a Fed that no longer has any excuse not to cut.
All of which suggests that the US economy – while hardly on fire as it was during the hyperinflationary period of Biden’s admin – continues to chug along and is hardly collapsing as so many Trump foes would like to see; and it certainly is not seeing prices explode higher.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
USA/INDIA
Washington is shifting its eyes away from China and onto India”
(zerohedge)
A Washington–New Delhi Alliance Is a Perfect Storm Against China, For India
As China’s trade with the United States continues to diminish, Beijing is anxious to stabilize trade relations with Washington—and has done so, at least for a while. But how long will any trade agreement last if the Chinese regime continues to violate it?
The harsh reality is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is aware of its precarious position. On the one hand, China desperately needs to stabilize its trading relationship with the United States. On the other hand, it can’t live up to agreements because it has to cheat on trading terms, as structural weaknesses prevail in driving the economy downward. As a result, the trust level between Washington and Beijing is low.
Lack of trust isn’t the only factor against China, of course. The Trump administration’s antipathy toward the Chinese regime as a strategic rival is well understood, and that’s unlikely to change. Furthermore, direct foreign investment is dwindling, and foreign companies are exiting China as quickly as possible.
Many of them are relocating to India. The list of companies choosing India over China is significant and has been steadily growing, even before U.S. President Donald Trump won a second term in office. In 2024, dozens of major companies, including Dell, HP, Intel, Samsung, LG Electronics, Nike, Hasbro, Blizzard Entertainment, Stanley Black & Decker, and many more, have already relocated their factories to India or plan to do so in the near future.
That trend isn’t likely to change, either. According to a 2024 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 45 percent of U.S. companies in China have initiated plans to diversify their suppliers outside of China, while 38 percent are considering doing so. The writing is on the Great Wall of China: the trade gap is widening, not narrowing. Their days of leading the world in manufacturing and the strategic clout that comes with it are on their way out.
India’s Big Opportunity With the US
In the meantime, to Beijing’s great concern, India is strategically pivoting to fill that widening gap by expanding its trading relationships with the United States. The United States is equally intentional in steering trade away from China and toward India.
India’s intentions are aligned with those of the United States. In April this year, U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited India to establish a broader bilateral trade agreement between the two countries. The goal is to increase the current trade of $190 billion to $500 billion by 2030.
The growing U.S.–India relationship extends beyond trade. Prior to Vance’s visit, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard was in India for a geopolitical conference. Perhaps even more telling, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to visit with Trump after he returned to the White House. At the time, Modi mentioned a “mega partnership” with the United States and began negotiations to address Trump’s tariffs on Indian products.
Notably, Modi had already reduced tariffs on some U.S. goods before he met with Trump. That may help explain why Indian officials have described trade negotiations as “very active” and “intense,” supporting the perception of a fast-track trade deal being worked out between the United States and India.
The Strategic Ripple Effects
China may be unaware of these developments and can already see several strategic ripple effects unfolding. As noted, the United States is keen on “friend-shoring” or restructuring global supply chains out of China and into India. One additional impact may be diminishing Beijing’s ability to support Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Although a trade reset of sorts appears to be in place between Washington and Beijing, the trend of businesses leaving China en masse remains undeniable. Apple has announced that it will relocate up to 25 percent of its iPhone production from China to India by 2025, and a significant portion of its U.S. phone production will also be moved out of China.
But other ripples are occurring as well.
A closely related issue is China’s dominance of the rare earths market. Like the United States, India is dependent on China’s rare earth monopoly. One of Modi’s policy shifts is to focus on India’s potential to increase its rare earth production capacity and potentially become a key supplier to the United States. That would be a huge blow to China and a big win for both India and the United States.
Another significant issue is India’s increasing involvement in U.S. defense planning in the region. India will play a growing role in U.S. security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region.
Beijing’s Double-Edged Response
In response to these developments, the CCP is getting creative. For example, in contrast to the trade barriers it put up after the Galwan incident involving military exchanges, Chinese state media has floated the possibility of reducing trade restrictions and encouraging engagement between China and India. That’s a direct result of India’s rising profile in the region and engagement with the United States.
Perhaps more importantly, China’s ambassador to India recently pledged to stop dumping Chinese products into Indian markets, ease trade deficits, and possibly even remove tariff and non-tariff barriers on Indian imports. This announcement comes alongside resumed diplomatic dialogue, high-level engagement, direct flights, and even the potential for enhanced access to rare earths for India.
On the flip side, in an effort to counter the friend-shoring trend, China is restricting machinery exports and equipment transfers to India in order to minimize its ability to handle incoming manufacturing demands. Beijing is also warning New Delhi that its deeper engagement with Washington—both in trade and in strategic alliances such as the Quad, as well as significant cooperation in evolving U.S.-led defense postures—could threaten its cordial relationship with China.
Another card for the CCP to play would be to increase support for Pakistan, India’s nuclear-armed regional rival. That’s a threat with a very thin veil, but unlikely to work because both Pakistan and India are nuclear-armed nations. Beijing’s support doesn’t fundamentally alter the status quo.
Will any or all of these potential countermeasures by Beijing be enough to sway New Delhi away from its tilt toward Washington? Will the Chinese regime be able to thwart India’s rise, even as its economy continues to collapse?
Not likely.
China is facing a multi-front storm, mainly of its own making through the CCP’s policies, and that storm is only getting worse. To carry the metaphor, it’s a perfect storm against China and for India.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
Service inflation, little/no foreign competition or tariffs, and food prices had the biggest impact.
SuperCore CPI shows Medical and Transportation, little or no foreign competition, led June inflation.
June Core CPI: It’s the service inflation, stupid! Goods inflation +0.103%, tiny tariff effect.
@wesbury: Core CPI up just 0.2%. But, year-ago comparisons are tough and the year-over-year “core” rose slightly to 2.9%. Better to look at 3-month annualized changes. The 3-month annualized increase was just 2.4%, down from 3.6% in February. Tariffs don’t cause inflation…
@EricLDaugh: Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT says after today’s inflation report, “One thing that Wall Street, economists got wrong early on was that tariffs were going to cause a substantial price level rise, which just hasn’t HAPPENED!” (Bessent said DJT will NOT fire Powell) https://t.co/dlBHXypMEK
Powell and Fed academics, who are mostly leftists, got tariff inflation wrong due to ignorance and allowing ideology/TDS to usurp logic and reasoning.
Ex-Clinton advisor @Mark_Penn: As I predicted the impact of tariffs on the economy was way over estimated by the media. The math is we import about 11% of our goods and so the impact, outside of certain sectors, is limited to about one per cent. And the fed should not consider them inflationary since they are a tax that has a one time effect and they reduce the $ available to the private sector and reduce the deficit. As they have a contractionary impact they should encourage rate cuts not the opposite.
US bonds sank on Tuesday. The 10-year hit 4.487%; the 30-year hit 5.02%. The Japanese bond market (1.595% is the highest 10-year [JGB] yield since 2008) and troubling US service inflation are frightening Mr. Bond. If the US 10-year goes above the 4.6% May high, look out!
Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to ‘step up deep strikes on Russian territory’ and asked Zelensky if ‘he could strike Moscow’, according to Financial Times report.
@KobeissiLetter: Government bond liquidity has never been worse: The Bloomberg Government Bond Liquidity Index hit a record 6.5 points on Monday. A higher reading in this index means LESS liquidity for global bond markets. The index has DOUBLED over the last several months, as government spending surged in the US and Japan. This means liquidity is now worse than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As a result, long-term government bonds are selling off, with Japan’s 30Y bond yield hitting 3.15%, the second-highest level since its debut in 1999. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1944879327201378733/photo/1
US 10-, 30-YEAR BREAKEVEN RATES CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST SINCE FEB. – BBG
Earnings: JPM 4.96, 4.47 exp; WFC 1.60, 1.41 exp; C 2.12, 1.60 exp; only C rallied (4.4% at peak).
Nvidia soared as much as 5.09%, which dragged the NY Fang+ Index moderately higher.
@FT: Donald Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to step up deep strikes on Russian territory, even asking Volodymyr Zelenskyy whether he could strike Moscow if the US provided long-range weapons, according to people briefed on the discussions. (Message to Putin) https://on.ft.com/4kBEjCE
The WH said that the Financial Times misinterpreted Trump’s private comments to Zelensky.
Trump: Happy Crypto Week! The House will soon vote on a tremendous Bill to make America the undisputed, Number One Leader in Digital Assets… Digital assets are the FUTURE, and America is leading the way! This is our moment… It’s all part of Making America Great Again… (Shameless shilling for his egregious conflict of interest!) https://x.com/getparlerapp/status/1945146586126016834/photo/1
Crypto has rallied sharply over the past several sessions on Crypto Week hype. However, crypto got hammered on Tuesday.
CEO Jamie Dimon said today he doesn’t get the appeal of stablecoins, but he also can’t afford to stay on the sidelines – CNBC
Dimon voiced support for Powell, stating, “The independence of the Fed is absolutely critical. Playing around with the Fed can have adverse consequences, the absolute opposite of what you might be hoping for.” This is exactly what we have warned. DJT could provoke a bond market tumble.
JPM CEO Dimon also warned that asset prices are “elevated.” This is a euphemism for bubble.
ESUs declined moderately after the Nikkei opening but bottomed after an hour and then went inert until they soared from 6302.75 at 21:30 ET to 6335.75 at 21:51 ET. ESUs then sank to 6308.25 at 22:50 ET. ESUs then rallied to 6333.25 at 1:31 ET. They returned to trading in a tight range until they broke higher after 5:33 ET. After hitting 6341.75 at 6:32 ET, an A-B-C decline took ESUs to 6325.00 at 8:31 ET.
The benign, on the surface, June CPI Report provoked an ESUs spike to 6343.00 (daily high) at 8:28 ET, two minutes before the official release of the CPI Report. After a sharp dip and quick rebound to 6342.25 at 9:24 ET, ESUs began an intractable decline that forced ESUs to a daily low of 6291.25 at 13:15 ET.
The afternoon rally took ESUs to 6311.00 at 14:11 ET. After several attempts to breach 6311.00 failed, ESUs fell to 6292.75 at 15:00 ET. The late manipulation for a 2nd straight session was lame. ESUs rallied to 6300.00; but 4 attempts to move higher failed. ESUs fell to a daily low of 6277.50 at 16:04 ET.
The House voted against procedural steps needed to begin debate on three stablecoin bills.
Positive aspects of previous session Nvidia soared on pattern and momentum (bubble) buying. NVDA is 28.54X sales!
Negative aspects of previous session USUs fell as much as 26/32 and were -20/32 at the NYSE close. Major equity indices, ex-The NY Fang+ Index declined sharply. For the 2nd straight session, the late ESU manipulation failed. Dimon warned about the US asset bubble and indirectly a bond market tumble if DJT get too cute.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar rallied sharply; gold and crypto sank. Does the forex crowd see NO rate cuts?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6262.49 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6302.04; 6241.68
GOP Reps on Houser Rules Com killed an amendment in the crypto bill that called for the release of the Epstein List. GOP Rep Norman (SC) voted with Dems; GOP Rep Chip Roy (TX) abstained.
@JasonJournoDC: Alan Dershowitz says it’s *NOT* Trump Admin that’s hiding Epstein info — it’s judges. ” Many of the things that are being suppressed are being suppressed by two judges in Manhattan.” “The judges have issued orders — which is why I can’t disclose things I’d love to disclose.” “But Pam Bondi and the Justice Department and Donald Trump are not responsible for that. I don’t know of any information that they could disclose that they haven’t disclosed.” “I think it’s important to place the blame where the blame deserves to be placed.” https://t.co/D6J6Nd9ED1
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports @honestpollster: The new Epstein polling is brutal. Trump Approval -4 today. Almost down to April lows (after a 15% market correction). Don’t forget the signature legislation was signed less than 2 weeks ago. Independent Trump Approval -19 today. Independent Trump Approval a week after Inauguration: +6… A major part of Trump’s new coalition are PISSED. Even if Trump approval recovers, this could be a Waterloo moment… https://x.com/honestpollster/status/1945115901860176279 https://x.com/honestpollster/status/1945131468134445457/photo/1 Epstein isn’t just some dead guy. He’s a symbol of two-tiered justice and unaccountable government. Consider this a minor test run for what happens if there’s an election integrity rug pull. “Only 21% of Americans think that Jeffrey Epstein killed himself.”
@Rasmussen_Poll: Roughly two-thirds of every political category – 68% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 69% of unaffiliated voters – reject the idea that the Epstein case is closed and instead believe that there are dozens of powerful and wealthy offenders who need to face justice.
Any pollster with a modicum of experience knows that stock prices and the economy closely correlate with a POTUS’s approval ratings. If DJT’s support is tumbling with record stock prices, he’s in trouble. Furthermore, Fangs and crypto are bubbles that always burst at some point. Herbert Hoover Trump?
President Trump personally contacted prominent conservative influencers urging them to tone down their criticism of his administration’s handling of the Epstein case – CNN.
@ShadowofEzra: President Trump claims the Epstein files are completely fabricated, accusing former FBI Director James Comey, along with Obama and the Biden administration, of creating them. He compares the situation to the Russia hoax, insisting the files are fake and tainted by corruption from the previous administration. (DJT self-immolation!) https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1945184139130384567
DJT is delusional & doesn’t understand Ann Coulter’s maxim: “People want Trumpism without Trump.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson breaks with Trump on Epstein files: ‘We should put everything out there’ (GOP could lose Midterms due to DJT’s Epstein fiasco!) https://trib.al/WlgqMWr
@bennyjohnson: Just got off the phone with top federal law enforcement contact. The change in approach to Epstein has been dramatic. Expect more disclosures. Some very powerful people inside Admin are now pushing for a Special Counsel and a full press briefing on Epstein findings. Important to note, this drastic change happened after @charliekirk11 and a number of other powerful MAGA Voices pushed back on the handling of the Epstein case this weekend at the Turning Point conference. They were met with massive roars and applause from the 7000 gathered that could not be ignored. In short: Our voices are being heard, power to the people
The pundit consensus believes Team DJT must deliver ASAP on the promised prosecutions and investigations of The Swamp, Jan 6 conspirators, election fraudsters, Biden Auto Pen, etc. to resurrect DJT’s support. It looks like this is about to happen. More below
PS – Reportedly Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino was back at work on Monday and is involved in a very serious project.
BBG: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that the central bank’s interest-rate-setting panel need not take direction from the chair(FOMC will revolt against Powell ouster via no rate cut vote)
Trump Says Pharma Tariffs Coming ‘Probably’ at Month’s End – BBG 18:49 ET.
Today is Weird Wednesday, which usually contains the peak intensity of the Expiry Week manipulation. So far, the Expiry Week and Earning Season Rallies have NOT appeared. Usually, only a profound negative development can thwart these trading schemes.
What is the big negative that is vexing stocks when they should be rallying? The global bond market! We warned a few missives ago that astute traders and investors would focus on bonds; and Trump’s bashing, let alone removal, of Powell could induce bonds to decline and torpedo stocks.
Expected Economic Data: June PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y, Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.7% y/y; June Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, Mfg. Production 0.0%, Capacity Utilization 77.4%; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 8 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack 9:15 ET, Fed Gov Barr 10 ET
ESUs are -24.80; NQUs are -68.50; USUs are -3/32; and gold is +0.40 at 20:18 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5990; 100-day MA: 5791; 150-day MA: 5864; 200-day MA: 5863 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,757; 100-day MA: 42,052; 150-day MA: 42,618; 200-day MA: 42,738 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6243.76 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5535.62 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6189.66 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6262.00 triggers a buy signal
@realDonaldTrump: I have always suspected Shifty Adam Schiff was a scam artist. And now I learn that Fannie Mae’s Financial Crimes Division have concluded that Adam Schiff has engaged in a sustained pattern of possible Mortgage Fraud. Adam Schiff said that his primary residence was in MARYLAND to get a cheaper mortgage and rip off America, when he must LIVE in CALIFORNIA because he was a Congressman from CALIFORNIA. I always knew Adam Schiff was a Crook. The FRAUD began with the refinance of his Maryland property on February 6, 2009, and continued through multiple transactions until the Maryland property was correctly designated as a second home on October 13, 2020. Mortgage Fraud is very serious, and CROOKED Adam Schiff (now a Senator) needs to be brought to justice. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114857687712359546
Trump, reacting to polls and the outrage from his base, is trying to divert attention from his Epstein fiasco with calls for prosecutions and investigations of his persecutors as we noted above.
@ChristinaNewstv: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer Facing Possible Federal Investigation Over $20 Million Grant Given to Friend, Donor… who then paid herself a salary of $550,000 per year as president of Global Link International…In addition to her salary, Beydoun purchased a $4,500 coffee machine, an $11,000 first class plane ticket to Budapest, and wrote a letter – signed by Whitmer – to government officials in Qatar encouraging them to communicate with her through ‘off the record channels’.. https://x.com/ChristinaNewstv/status/1944872030576234729
@ProfMJCleveland: GOP Sen. @ChuckGrassley released emails include a smoking gun exposing how Tim Thibault (FBI agent) was searching for a crime to investigate!… https://x.com/ProfMJCleveland/status/1945123758844322023/photo/1 Thibault says we could open an assessment, but that ain’t good enough. Why not? Because they can’t do what the US Attorney’s office wants them to do if it is only an assessment. SO, Thibault notes they are trying to predicate a preliminary investigation. NOTE: Not that there is a predicate for a preliminary investigation but they are trying to create a predicate. Every single FBI agent on the email chain should be referred to the Inspector General!But what did FBI Director Wray do? He promoted at least one, Wayne Jacobs, to Special Agent in Charge of Philly field office! And Jacobs continued with the crew as they opened “Arctic Frost” to target Trump… So, is Jacobs part of the swamp or fingering the bad actors and revealing where the bones are buried? https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/grassley-johnson-make-public-whistleblower-records-revealing-doj-and-fbi-plot-to-pin-trump-in-jack-smith-elector-case
@FoxNews: ‘ACT OF TERROR’: Progressive Rhode Island lawmaker @EnriqueForRI unleashes heinous “Nazi Gestapo” insult at @ICEgov after agents arrested his “neighbor,” but officials turn the tables on the far-left representative with a brutal reality check. The violent illegal alien taken into custody was a previously deported, known MS-13 gangbanger facing fentanyl trafficking charges. https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1945154236028780814
@VigilantFox: @StephenM: “The left has been trying to shove marxism, socialism and communism down the throat of the American people for generations now.” “They ultimately were not able to do this during the Cold War because the middle-class revolted against communism and marxism and social engineering.” “The Democratic Party shifted their tactics to use migration as a weapon to break down the middle class and to gain political control in this country.” “They use migration to destroy our public education system, to destroy the healthcare system, to destroy wages and working conditions for the middle class of this country, and in effect to destroy social and community cohesion… And then to ultimately import voters to then support that agenda, to import voters who do not believe in limited government, who do not believe in the U.S. Constitution.” “And that is why you are seeing now this VIOLENT, yes, VIOLENT, insurrectionist revolt by the Democrat Party against immigration and customs enforcement.” “So we really are at a hinge point here for the West. A fulcrum point.” https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1944739370214265000
@TRUMP_ARMY_: Tom Homan drops the truth bomb: “No one hires an illegal alien out of the goodness of their heart. They hire them to work them harder, pay them less, and undercut the competition.https://t.co/fU5t5s2X3I
@Real_RobN: D.O.G.E. investigations confirm that the USAID did indeed give Chelsea Clinton a grant of $82,000,000 through the Clinton Global Initiative, 3 million of which were spent on her wedding and another 11 million on a mansion. https://t.co/iniljCdcn5
@realMaalouf: Zohran Mamdani, Muslim Communist, running for mayor of New York; Omar Fateh, Somali Muslim Socialist, running for mayor of Minneapolis. If they win, you can expect a WAVE of ‘progressive’ Muslims running for mayor, governor, or even president. The Muslim Brotherhood playbook. https://t.co/aBGilCCivz
Senator Durbin (IL- D) is a shameless, deceitful hypocrite. Shoplifting is a local issue; immigration is a federal issue. More importantly, soft-on-crime Dem officials, including Soros-funded prosecutors, are responsible for the retail theft epidemic in Big Blue Cities. Can you imagine the outrage if Team Trump announced that it would devote federal law enforcement assets to fight big city crime?!
San Francisco Walgreens store manager convicted of assaulting shoplifter District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said Monday, “Although I understand the frustration and anger in the community, violence is unacceptable and only makes matters worse.”… About a minute later, Hong noticed that the shoplifter was still outside of the store. Hong placed his keys between his knuckles and punched the shoplifter in the face while shouting at him, prosecutors said… Whitlock was charged with petty theft and battery. Hong was charged with assault with force likely to produce great bodily injury… https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/san-francisco-walgreens-store-manager-convicted-of-assaulting-shoplifter/
@GrageDustin:Vance Boelter’s confession letter… My name is Dr. Vince Lethorn Berthar, Ed.D. I am the shooter at large in Minnesota involved in the June 12 shootings, which happened in the early morning hours of Saturday, June 13 — sometime between approximately 2:30 a.m. and 3:30 a.m… I was told by U.S. military people on the lakes during my release. I’ve been on many operations since then in Eastern Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Africa — all in the line of duty… Recently, I was approached about a project that Tim Walz wanted done. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Keith were involved. I wasn’t originally aware of the project — but Tim wanted me to kill Amy Klobuchar and Tina Keith to force a planned retirement… he set up murders, including one involving someone named Jan, Mel, and others — to “get the dark types” when I moved… https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1945225335085126142
Leaked Messages Reveal Andreessen’s Fury: ‘Universities Declared War on 70% of the Country’ He criticized DEI and immigration policies, describing them as “two forms of discrimination” that are “politically lethal.”… “You look at the foreign enrollment rates at the top universities, which went from 2 or 3 or 4 percent 50 years ago or whatever to 27% or 30% or 50%… what level of untapped talent exists in this country that a combination of DEI and immigration have basically cut out of the loop for the last 50 years? And how long can we have this story to everybody in the Midwest and in the South that says, sorry, because of historical oppression, your kids are s*** out of luck.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/leaked-messages-reveal-andreessens-fury-universities-declared-war-70-country
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Crackdown Begins: Federal Agents Target Taco Shops Employing Illegal Aliens
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2025 – 03:15 PM
Update (1515ET):
The federal government is ramping up its crackdown on Mexican restaurants hiring illegal aliens. As we reported earlier, a taco shop in Phoenix, Arizona, was raided and its owner arrested for knowingly employing illegals. Now, federal agents are executing search warrants at businesses across another state, that is Alabama.
“HSTF and state & local law enforcement executing federal search warrants across Alabama. The operation is part of an ongoing investigation into multiple federal crimes,” Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in Atlanta wrote on X, posting an image of a taco shop called El Patron Mexican Grill & Cantina.
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) July 6, 2025
Perhaps it’s time for the Trump administration to push for more strict civil and criminal penalties against employers who hire illegal aliens — real deterrence requires real consequences.
* * *
Knowingly hiring illegal aliens is a major crime, and under President Trump’s Border Czar Tom Homan, the federal government is cracking down on employers who exploit cheap migrant labor. In some cases, employers have even been caught hiring illegal alien children (or maybe even trafficked by labor mules), as exposed during last week’s ICE raids on marijuana farms in Governor Newsom’s far-left progressive utopia of California.
Hiring scrutiny on employers continues nationwide, with local media outlet 12 News in the Phoenix area reporting that Homeland Security Investigations arrested Blademir Angulo, 42, after a four-month-long investigation found he had hired at least a dozen illegal aliens at his restaurant, El Taco Loko.
Here’s more from the local media outlet:
According to court documents, Angulo not only hired the workers but also allegedly paid them in cash and allowed them to live in recreational vehicles and trailers on property he owns in Laveen, near 63rd Avenue and Baseline Road. Agents also surveilled a second property near 16th Avenue and Southern Avenue as part of the investigation.
An 18-page federal complaint filed on July 11 charges Angulo with four federal crimes: Alien in Possession of a Firearm, Harboring Illegal Aliens, Improper Entry by an Alien, and a Pattern and Practice of Knowingly Employing Unauthorized Aliens.
In an interview, Angulo admitted that he knew what he was doing was illegal, but denied ever paying money to anyone to bring his employees across the southern border. One employee had a differing account, reportedly telling investigators he owed Angulo $12,000 for smuggling him into the United States.
"A West Phoenix taco shop owner is in federal custody tonight, accused of knowingly hiring a dozen illegal immigrants at his business."
"The owner of the shop is accused of smuggling and hiring people who are not American citizens." pic.twitter.com/glzY5BBKSu
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 15, 2025
The case in Phoenix should serve as a major wake-up call to employers nationwide who have hired illegals and displaced American labor with cheap, unauthorized labor. Trump’s immigration officials are ramping up enforcement against such business owners, and as the administration moves to end temporary legal protections for migrants, major corporations (view here) that employed them are also going to come under increased scrutiny.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday accused Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif) of engaging in a pattern of mortgage fraud, calling him a “scam artist” who “needs to be brought to justice.”
The president took to Truth Social Monday morning to share the conclusion of fraud allegedly reached by Fannie Mae’s financial crimes division.
“I have always suspected Shifty Adam Schiff was a scam artist. And now I learn that Fannie Mae’s Financial Crimes Division have concluded that Adam Schiff has engaged in a sustained pattern of possible Mortgage Fraud,” Trump stated.
“Adam Schiff said that his primary residence was in MARYLAND to get a cheaper mortgage and rip off America, when he must LIVE in CALIFORNIA because he was a Congressman from CALIFORNIA,” the president continued.
By listing his Maryland home as his primary residence, according to the accusation, Schiff may have been trying to take advantage of more favorable loan terms, such as lower interest rates.
“I always knew Adam Schiff was a Crook,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
“The FRAUD began with the refinance of his Maryland property on February 6, 2009, and continued through multiple transactions until the Maryland property was correctly designated as a second home on October 13, 2020.”
The president concluded: “Mortgage Fraud is very serious, and CROOKED Adam Schiff (now a Senator) needs to be brought to justice.”
Trump’s accusations follow a “bombshell ethics complaint” against Schiff detailed in a May 2025 USA Herald report.
The complaint was filed by Christine Bish and Darren Ellis in October 2024, accusing him of a “pattern of mortgage fraud, voter fraud, and unlawful campaign filings stretching back over two decades.”
According to the complaint, “In 2009, Adam Schiff’s residence and voting registration was called to question in a House Ethics Committee hearing. Adam Schiff, despite claiming to live and represent the people in the state of California, filed and reaffirmed through refinancing documents, his primary residence at [—- —— —- ——-], Potomac Maryland, 28054.”
The complaint further alleges, “Adam Schiff is on the record having acknowledged the mortgage document filings [of Maryland as his primary residence] during a House Ethics hearing in 2009… He made the claim of ‘mistake,’ thereby acknowledging the appearance of possible mortgage fraud.”
The allegations against Schiff mirror those leveled against New York Attorney General Letitia James earlier this year involving her properties in Norfolk, Virginia and Brooklyn, New York. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) launched a formal criminal investigation into James in May which could potentially lead to charges of wire fraud, mail fraud, bank fraud, and making false statements to financial institutions.
The junior senator from California, who earned the nickname “Shifty Schiff” as a member of the House of Representatives from January 2001 to December 2024, has been a major player in numerous political operations against President Trump, including the Russia hoax, the Ukraine hoax, and the “Hunter Biden’s laptop is Russian disinformation” hoax.
In 2019, then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy signed a Republican resolution to censure then-House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff for fabricating the presidential phone call between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that spurred the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry.
In January 2023, then the House Speaker, McCarthy took the extraordinary step of kicking Schiff and fellow Russia-hoaxer Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) off the Intelligence Committee. In June of that same year, the House of Representatives censured Schiff “for misleading the American public and for conduct unbecoming of an elected Member of the House of Representatives.”
After Trump’s election in November, Schiff and many other Democrats repeatedly voiced concerns that Trump’s Department of Justice could potentially investigate Democrats in retaliation for their past weaponization of the Justice system to prosecute and harass their political enemies.
“Since I led his first impeachment, Trump has repeatedly called for me to be arrested for treason,” Schiff wrote on X in response to Trump’s post. “So in a way, I guess this is a bit of a letdown.”
He added: “And this baseless attempt at political retribution won’t stop me from holding him accountable. Not by a long shot.”
END
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO
Chaos in Housing, Crypto, Gold, Silver & War – John Rubino
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has been warning of a currency crisis, especially since the so-called Big Beautiful Bill passed Congress. President Trump signed it into law on the Fourth of July. America’s credit was downgraded, and we are now set to explode the deficit $20 trillion in the next 10 years. That will be inflationary, but before we get there, we will have a crushing crash in home prices. Right now, the residential home market is rolling over with inventories surging and prices about to collapse. Rubino says, “You get this huge increase in inventory in the housing market. In other words, homes for sale go way up, but still, nobody can buy them. Then people really panic, and they start cutting the asking price of their house really dramatically until prices fall to a place where people can afford them again. In today’s market, that means a 30% to 40% drop in house prices. We are at the very beginning of that right now. . .. In the next couple of years, you are going to see home prices drop, and then the drop is going to become disorderly. Then you are going to see bankruptcies really hit housing.”
This week, a new bill is making its way through Congress and it’s called the GENIUS Act, (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act). This act will set the rules for crypto currencies such as stablecoin. This is a coin designed to “hold the value of the cryptocurrency steady in a variety of ways.” One way is to have actual collateral to back up the stablecoin. The benefactors will be Treasury bonds, crypto currencies and physical gold and silver. Rubino says, “Tether, who started the big Treasury stablecoin, also started a gold stablecoin. They bought a bunch of gold and put it in a vault, and then their tokens trade as if they are worth a fixed amount of gold. It feels like you are trading gold . . . but Tether has to have that gold in a vault. . .. If this concept gets popular, this will be a big demand for gold because you will have all the stablecoin creators out there buying gold and storing it in vaults. . .. The big buyers in the past five years were central banks, and now, if we have stablecoin companies, that can’t help but to push gold higher.”
Rubino says the same price increases will happen to physical silver along with other tangible assets as the stablecoin market searches for collateral. What is going to take a big hit will be the U.S. dollar. Rubino says, “It’s all a form of inflation. The whole stablecoin thing starts with governments creating currencies out of thin air. . .. The stablecoin thing seems to be just another spigot to turn on the money. . .. I am not sure this is in any way a good thing for the value of the dollar. I think the dollar loses value. . .. These are games that are being played, and they don’t in any way strengthen the dollar. If we print a trillion dollars this year, that money is going somewhere and this will make asset prices go up. It’s all inflationary. I think this will help gold and silver a lot, and it will also help the miners, but I don’t think it will help the government.”
The War in Ukraine is not slowing down, and there is no peace in sight. President Trump is threatening huge tariffs against Russia if a peace deal is not done in 50 days. Russia has also made threats against the West. This week, renowned market and geopolitical cycle expert Martin Armstrong is breaking news with a headline that reads “War is Coming NATO Wants to Send 250,000 Troops into Ukraine.” The wildest of wild cards is war with Russia. “Rubino says, “If we are in a shooting war with Russia, the stock market is down by 30% the day the shooting starts. The dollar goes up because the whole rest of the world moves their money to the US. We are still perceived to be the safest place in the world to put money, but with WWIII with Russia, I don’t know. It would be chaos. . .. I think the trust horizon is shrinking, and it will take a whole generation of people before the government will be believed again. I think there are people alive now who will never take another vaccine as long as they live. The effects of this loss of trust will be felt for a long time.”
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LATEST NEWS
️ The FBI’s Jeffrey Epstein surveillance footage had nearly 3 minutes cut out
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