JULY 18//GOLD CLOSED UP $11.10 TO $3351.90 WITH SILVER ALSO CLOSING HIGHER TO THE TUNE OF 13 CENTS TO $38.22//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $32.05 TO $1429.45 WITH PALLADIUM ALSO FALLING BY $25.40 DOWN TO $1259.10//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY COURTESY OF ALASDAIR MACLEOD//A MUCH WATCH PODCAST TODAY OF ANDREW MAGUIRE TALKING WITH ALASDAIR MACLEOD ON CURRENCIES AND GOLD/SILVER..ROBERT LAMBOURNE PROVIDES FOR US A COMMENTARY FROM CHINA ON THE BULLISHNESS OF SILVER//THE EU PROVIDES ITS BUDGET FOR THE YEAR AND BOTH FRANCE AND GERMANY BLAST THEIR EXTRAVAGANCE//THE EU ROLLS OUT ITS 18TH SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA DUE TO THE UKRAINE/RUSSIA WAR//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//THE SITUATION INSIDE SYRIA WITH THE DRUZE HAS MANY UPDATES//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/MARK CRISPIN MILLER/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEWSWIZE ETC//COMMENTARY TONIGHT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY COURTESY OF RABOBANK//USA DATA RELEASES//THERE HAS BEEN A CRIMINAL REFER TO BONDI ON JEROME POWELL RE HIS LAVISH SPENDING FOR THE FED BUILDING AT $2.5 BILLION DOLLARS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 60 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 3 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 6 555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 250 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 251 151 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 147 685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2 709 C BARCLAYS 39 880 H CITIGROUP 93 905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 502 502 MONTH TO DATE: 9,513
JPMORGAN STOPPED 147/502
JULY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 502 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 50,200 OZ or 1.5614 TONNES
total notices so far: 9513 contracts for 951,300 OR 29.589 tonnes)
FOR JULY
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SILVER NOTICES: 210 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.050 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9090 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 45.450 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $11.10 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.13 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ///A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV///
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 472.453 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1055 CONTRACTS TO 172,865 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.22 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BASE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1205 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SMALL 150 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS EARLY IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $36.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON THURSDAY WITH SILVER’S SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $36.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $38.09 . WE HAVE ANOTHER STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AT 393 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT STILL SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 38.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A SMALL 150 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG SIZED 393 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TODAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1205 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.22.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 393 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.22) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1205 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A 150 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 34.730 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 715,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.805 MILLION OZ
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY: 45.805 MILLION OZ INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 393 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 141 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 DAY(S), total 6709contracts: OR 33.545 MILLION OZ (516 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 33.545 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 33.545 MILLION OZ
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RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1075 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.22 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL 150 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 150 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 4 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 45.805 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (393 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE IN FRIDAY’S TRADING OR BEYOND!
WE HAD 210 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.050 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6341 OI CONTRACTS TO 444,521 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 7952 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (6341 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $11.10 IN PRICE// THURSDAY///.
LAST THREE MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 1.576 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 30.634 TONNES STANDING
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 500 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 444,521 /NOW STILL AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 172,865 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5841 CONTRACTS WITH 6341 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 500 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5841 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1202 CONTRACTS
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(500) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 6341 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5841 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JULY AT 17.947 TONNES COUPLED WITH TODAY’S 1.576 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.634 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JULY CONTRACT AT 30.634 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS WE HAD 1)A $11.10 COMEX PRICE LOSS. HOWEVER WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 5841 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES COUPLED WITH SOME EARLY LIQUIDATION OF OUR TAS SPREADERS // /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (500 CONTRACTS)/// FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1202 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 20,734 CONTRACTS OR 2,073,400 OZ OR 64.49 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1594 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 64.49 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 64.49 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 64.49 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1055 CONTRACTS OI TO 172,865 AND CLOSER TO TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 150 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1000 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1055 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 150 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1205 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.22 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 6.730 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.66 PTS OR 0.50%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 326.71 PTS OR 1.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 82.08 PTS OR 0.21% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.30%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1767 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1805/ Oil UP TO 66.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.34 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1767 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1805 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6341 CONTRACTS TO A STILL LOW NUMBER OF 444,521 OI DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.10 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (500 ). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //THURSDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALEQUATING 2111 CONTRACTS.
THE CME ANNOUNCED THURSDAY NIGHT, A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES.
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 0
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5841 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE IN JANUARY THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER FINALLY ENDS OUR MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE. AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A MUCH MUCH LOWER 1202 T.A.S CONTRACTS THAN MONDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 22,678. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. HOWEVER JULY IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.576 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 30.634 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 30.634 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 10+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 232 EPISODE AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 500 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 500 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY (EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION)
ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1202 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE THURSDAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.THIS WAS SURELY IN EVIDENCE IN TRADING THURSDAY WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE DURING THE RAID WHICH ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 1.576 TONNES QUEUE JUMP = 30.634 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY 11.10/ /) BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE AN FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////THURSDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE MEGA MEGA T.A.S. ISSUANCES, LAST WEEK , IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS. SO FAR FOR THE WEEK, THEY ONLY SUCCEEDED ON TUESDAY WITH THURSDAY’S RAID A TOTAL BUST.
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 6.566 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 50700 OZ OR 1.576 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.634 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $11.10
WE HAD A MAMMOTH 7952 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5841 CONTRACTS OR 584,100 0Z (18.16 TONNES)
total deposit 48,258.651 oz (1.501 tonnes of gold)
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No of oz served (contracts) today
502 notice(s) 50200 OZ 1.5614 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
336 contracts 33,600 OZ 1.045 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9513 notices 951,300 oz 29.589 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
i) Into JPMORGAN 48,258.651 oz (1501 kilobars)
total deposit 48,258.651 oz (1.501 tonnes of gold)
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customer withdrawal
0 entries
adjustments: 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 838 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 501 CONTRACTS. ON THURSDAY WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED, SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 507 CONTRACTS OR 50,700 OZ (1.576 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD
AUGUST LOST 13,583 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 213,303 AS AUGUST BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT’S OI IS VERY HIGH AND NOT CONTRACTING ENOUGH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HIGH NUMBER OF TONNES STANDING.
SEPT GAINED 137 CONTRACTS TO 1729
We had 6 contracts filed for today representing 600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 502 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 147 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9513 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (838 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (502 x 100 oz per contract) equals 984,900 OZ OR 30.634 TONNES to which we add 0 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 30.634 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (9513 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (838 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (502 x 100 oz) which equals 984,900 OZ OR 30.634 TONNES + 0 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 30.634 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 30.634 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
2 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks 40,243.700 oz ii) Out of Stonex 614,449.500 oz
total withdrawal: 654,693.200 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 195.913 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 497.243 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 281 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 46 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 189 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 143 CONTRACTS OR 715,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST LOST 42 CONTRACTS TO 2,362 AS THIS MONTH BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER
SEPTEMBER GAINED 1165 CONTRACTS UP TO 129,798 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:210 or 1.050 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 47,017 poor//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9090 X5,000 oz = 45.450 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (281) AND the number of notices served upon today (210 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (9090) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(281) minus number of notices served upon today (210)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 45.805 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 45.805 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 195.913 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/497.243 million. 42.25%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.94 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.93 TONNES
JUNE 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $33.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.758 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.49 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD UP $53.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.38 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.91 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $55.75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.19 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNEES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.91 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.22 TONNES
JUNE 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.20 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.10 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.65 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.07 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 948.50 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.83/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.818 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 474.641 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.67/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 1.273 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.096 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.823 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473550 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.274 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.232 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.69/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.182 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.914 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.732 MILLION OZ. (A TOTAL DEPOSIT OF 11.856 MILLION PHANTOM OZ IN THE LAST 4 DAYS)
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.14/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 4.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.869 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.084 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.505 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02/HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ ././///INVENTORY RESTS AT 461.421 MILLION OZ.
Silver swaps are facing a short squeeze in poor liquidity, with lease rates on the September Comex contract at over 5%. Gold continues to consolidate in a bullish pennant formation.
This week, gold continued its consolidation, while silver squeezed higher from Wednesday onwards. In European trade this morning, gold was $3350, down a paltry $5 from last Friday’s close. Silver was $38.35, barely changed on balance.
As our headline chart shows, silver is now outperforming gold, up 32% v gold up 27% this year so far. Will it continue?
I think the answer is yes. Silver has underperformed gold over the last decade, culminating in a gold/silver ratio of 121 in March 2021. That has come down substantially, but at 87 is still too high for a metal which is in growing supply deficit. Furthermore, future mine supply in the longer term is hampered by the lack of new discoveries for both silver and other metals where silver is a byproduct, and environmental and planning restrictions resulting in substantial lead times for new mine development.
The chart also remains positive:
Silver appears to be in runaway mode, perhaps needing some consolidation in the $40 region. That would make sense, with the short side in paper markets is being badly squeezed, reflected in the relationship between Comex’s open interest and the price:
Note how the price continued rising after the decline in open interest following its peak on 17 June (arrowed). This is evidence of a vicious bear squeeze, whereby liquidation of long positions failed to result in lower prices. And now open interest is rising, piling further pressure on the shorts, particularly in the swap category.
The record net short position is comprised of 27,804 long contracts as well as 80,128 shorts, the latter representing 400,640,000 ounces (update due tonight). The shorts are held by 24 traders, giving an average financial exposure of $634m per trader in illiquid conditions.
This is against a background of record Comex warehouse stocks, as the MacroMicro chart shows:
Comex warehouse stocks are the equivalent of 60% of mined supply. Commercial users appear to be treating Comex as the largest supply source of above-ground silver. In other words, silver is accumulating, with its new owners happy to store it in Comex vaults until they need it.
A factor driving the paper shortage is high lease rates, at over 5% today on the September contract confirming the liquidity shortage despite high warehouse stocks. The latter appears to incorporate a fear factor, reflecting Trump’s proposed blanket tariffs on Mexican imports, with the swaps being squeezed by poor liquidity.
In conclusion, it appears sensible to own physical silver in these conditions, because this squeeze looks like it has further to go, despite warehouse stock levels.
Silver’s potential is against a background for gold. Gold has been consolidating nicely in a bullish pennant formation which is now three months old.
Probably the most important news in recent weeks is Trump’s frustration that the Fed won’t reduce interest rates. Sensibly, Powell is keeping his head down and not being dragged into commenting. He surely knows that inflationary pressures are mounting, in part due to Trump’s tariff policies. He also knows that the Fed has a funding problem with a lack of demand along the treasury yield curve to absorb new debt and the refunding of maturing debt. To reduce interest rates goes against the inflation mandate and would make debt funding more difficult, other than by escalating T-bill issuance.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s trade-weighted index has stabilised — for the moment. But the chart says it is still going lower. The Powell/Trump issue could determine the timing of the next move
.
JOHN RUBINO
The next two commentaries provided to us from Robert Lambourne:
Since the beginning of this year, silver prices have surged by over 30%, outperforming gold, as investors have sought to expand their exposure to safe-haven assets amid the backdrop of the global trade war.
Since the beginning of this year, silver prices have surged by over 30%, outperforming gold, as investors have sought to expand their exposure to safe-haven assets amid the backdrop of the global trade war.
However, analysts believe that there is still room for silver prices to rise, driven by tight physical supply and growing investment demand. Citi Group forecast in a report on Wednesday that silver prices would rise to $40 per ounce in the next three months, further adjusting upward from the previous target price of $38.
Citi analysts pointed out that the rise in silver prices is not just a catch-up with gold prices but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals. Additionally, silver prices are expected to benefit from expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.
Tim Treadgold, a senior mining journalist in Australia, revealed another factor, stating that there are signs that the Russian Central Bank is buying silver in large quantities, which will affect silver prices. He did not provide evidence of the Russian Central Bank’s purchases but noted that since the bank announced its purchase of silver as reserves in September last year, silver prices have consistently outperformed gold.
Has a big buyer emerged? Treadgold said that gold has been the star of the commodity sector over the past three years. However, there are also signs that investors have paused their gold investments. Since 2022, gold prices have more than doubled, initially driven by central bank purchases and later joined by private investors entering the market.
He added that the rise in silver prices has been relatively slow, mainly due to the lack of big buyers like central banks. However, if the Russian Central Bank is quietly building up its silver reserves, other central banks in countries with good relations with Russia may follow suit.
On September 30, 2024, the Russian government revealed plans to invest up to 51 billion rubles ($535.5 million) over the next three years to increase its precious metal reserves. According to its draft federal budget, in addition to gold, Russia also seeks to expand the scope of its precious metal reserves to include silver and platinum group metals.
The draft budget does not include details about potential purchase plans, but some analysts believe that including silver in central bank foreign exchange reserves may attract new investor interest and re-establish it as an official monetary metal.
Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund, is one of the first to pay attention to the Russian Central Bank’s move. He said that although 60% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, investors should not completely overlook silver’s role as a monetary asset.
Meanwhile, Citi also predicts that gold will enter a plateau phase relative to silver. Analysts said that the market may have already seen the peak in gold prices, which was $3,500 per ounce set in April. The reason for the pullback in gold prices is weakening investment demand and an improved economic outlook.
Inflows into Silver-Backed Exchange-Traded Products Already Surpass 2024 Totals
(Washington, DC – July 9, 2025) Heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with positive price expectations, spurred silver investment in the first half of 2025. This action primarily drove the precious metal’s price in June to its highest level in 13 years.
Silver Price
The average annual silver price rose 25% through the first six months of 2025, only marginally lower than the average gold price, which increased by 26% during the same period.
The elevated gold:silver ratio in April and May also made silver appear undervalued from a long-term perspective. Meanwhile, improving sentiment in the industrial metals sector, following the start of trade talks between China and the US, provided additional price support.
Silver-Backed Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs)
With net inflows of 95 million ounces (Moz) in the first half of 2025, silver ETP investment has already surpassed the total for all of last year. This surge reflects increasingly bullish price expectations.
By June 30, global silver ETP holdings reached 1.13 billion ounces (Boz), just 7% below their highest level since the peak of 1.21 Boz in February 2021. Thanks to firmer silver prices, the value of these holdings hit a series of all-time highs in June, exceeding US$40 billion for the first time. Growth was relatively consistent over the first five months of 2025, before buying surged in June, which alone accounted for nearly half of the gains. As such, this marked the most significant monthly increase since the Reddit-driven silver squeeze in early 2021.
Futures Trading
On the CME, net managed money positions strengthened this year. As of June 24 (the latest available data at the time of writing), the net long position was up a staggering 163% from end-2024 levels. Notably, institutional investors have demonstrated a strong commitment to silver as a store of value for much of this year. This is reflected in the average net longs over the first six months of 2025, which achieved their highest level since the first half of 2021.
Retail Silver Investment
Retail investment in silver has experienced contrasting fortunes so far this year. In Europe, the recovery that began in late 2024 has continued into 2025. However, this growth stems from a relatively low base, and retail investment (in volume terms) still lags behind the elevated levels seen during 2020–2022. Nevertheless, the market has benefited from a slowdown in secondary market liquidations, which has lifted demand for newly minted bars and coins.
Indian retail investment demand remains strong, posting a 7% year-over-year gain over the first six months of 2025. This partly reflects ongoing strong price expectations.
This contrasts with the US, where selling back by retail investors remains high. This dynamic, along with weak retail purchases, has weighed heavily on new bar and coin sales as some US investors have been encouraged by multi-year high prices to book profits. Furthermore, the absence of a crisis in the US (like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023) has reduced safe-haven purchases. Overall, US retail demand for silver is estimated to have fallen by at least 30% so far this year.
Looking ahead, in the coin and bar market, there is potential for strong two-way activity in the months ahead, although demand for newly struck products may remain subdued. One area of uncertainty, however, is how investors will react should the silver price eclipse US$40. The market could see a mixture of profit-taking by some, while other investors jump in, expecting further price gains.
CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 232
5. COMMODITY REPORT…URANIUM
For National Security, We Need Uranium Mined In America
Perhaps it’s too soon to mark nuclear power’s revival in the U.S. but there is a burst of activity that should ultimately yield a new generation of advanced nuclear plants and small modular reactors.
This is especially true for major industrial energy consumers—which now also includes data centers—where there is a strong economic incentive to use more nuclear power instead of natural gas and intermittent renewables.
In Illinois, Meta recently signed a long-term agreement to buy nuclear power from Constellation’s Clinton nuclear plant, the latest in a slew of deals between big tech and the nuclear industry. Constellation also said it would restart Three Mile Island Unit One in Pennsylvania and sell the power to Microsoft under a 20-year agreement. Google, too, has agreed to fund the development of small modular reactors, or SMRs, at three new nuclear sites in Oregon. TVA plans to build SMRs at its Clinch River site and Kairos Power has a blueprint for an advanced molten salt reactor. Moreover, Amazon, Google and Meta signed a pledge in March calling for nuclear energy worldwide to triple by 2050.
Elevating nuclear power on our list of energy options makes sense because it is the only way to generate large amounts of emission-free electricity reliably for AI-powered data centers, electric vehicles and industries. But surging demand for electricity and nuclear power underscores a serious issue: Who will provide the huge amounts of uranium needed to fuel nuclear plants?
Currently, 95 percent of the uranium used at US nuclear plants is imported from other countries, with Russia and former Soviet States flooding the global market and driving free-market companies out of business. China is also rapidly expanding its influence in the global uranium supply chain. But our dependence on uranium imports is not for lack of domestic resources.
In fact, in the mid-1970s the U.S. was the sole supplier of enriched uranium in the West, and business boomed. Since then, artificially low prices—and policy antagonism to domestic production—have forced U.S. customers into the hands of foreign competitors. Currently, there are only five uranium mines operating in the U.S. in contrast to several dozen in the 1970s and 20 as recently as 2009.
A uranium crisis may not be imminent, but the long-term implications of buying cheap foreign uranium instead of from US mining companies are ominous, particularly for national defense, including the Navy’s fleet of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Our nation’s fleet of 94 nuclear power plants also requires a dependable supply of uranium.
American industries, including our defense industrial base, are currently under immense pressure from China’s export restrictions on mineral exports—including rare earth metals. We know too well that the era of overreliance on mineral imports must come to an end. This is an economic, energy and national security vulnerability that has become untenable.
Given the risk of a cutoff of uranium imports or a huge spike in the price of uranium, we need a government policy to counter the threat to our national security and economy. President Trump recently said the Administration will draw up recommendations for reviving and expanding U.S. uranium production. That’s a good first step but we must match intent with action.
Our dependence on imported minerals, particularly from adversaries, poses a grave threat to national security. And it will cause serious trouble for key sectors of our economy if something isn’t done soon to boost domestic production. For these reasons, the U.S. now faces a monumental challenge: scaling up production of uranium, diversifying supply chains to protect national security and doing so in ways that are sustainable.
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.66 PTS OR 0.50%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 326.71 PTS OR 1.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 82.08 PTS OR 0.21% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.30%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1767 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1805/ Oil UP TO 66.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.34 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1767 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1805 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1767 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1805 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.66 PTS OR 0.50%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 18.81 PTS OR 0.08%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 82.08 PTS OR 0.21%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.07/ EURO RISES TO 1.1643 UP 28 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.525//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.60…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6970/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.589 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.316%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.422
3j Gold at $3347.70 Silver at: 38.30 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 33 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.46
3m oil (WTI) into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.60// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.525% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8016 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9333 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.438 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.991 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.894 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.38
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6640 UP 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.574 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.105 DOWN 2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat With $2.8 Trillion In Options Set To Expire
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 08:21 AM
US equity futures are flat even as the global equity rally extended into Europe, following Friday’s gains in Asia and Thursday’s record close on Wall Street. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are unchanged while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.1% after NFLX had a solid report, but market reactions were muted amid high expectations. Europe’s Stoxx 600 initially rose 0.4% but has since erased gains, with Energy stocks outperforming and tracking a two-day advance in oil prices as Brent crude futures climb 1.2% to above $70 per barrel. Pre-market in the US, megacap tech sees NVDA up modestly (+0.4%), followed by AAPL and GOOGL. Consumer Staples and Financials are outperforming. The dollar and 2Y rates dropped after Fed Governor Christopher Waller repeated his recent view that the Fed should cut 25bps this month. Yields are lower and USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields are down by 1-2bps. Commodities are mixed, with Oil and Precious Metals higher, while Base Metals are flat. The combined value of cryptoassets soared beyond $4 trillion for the first time, fueled by a surge in Ethereum and momentum from a legislative push to regulate the sector. Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes June housing starts (8:30am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller, and Fed officials’ external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 decision starts Saturday
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Nvidia +0.4%, Tesla +0.3%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple +0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Meta Platforms +0.2%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
American Express Co. (AXP) rises 1.7% after the company’s billed business on its cards and other products outperformed expectations in the second quarter as its affluent customers continued to spend.
Blaize (BZAI) surges 100% after the company secured a contract to deploy its hybrid AI platform across Asia in collaboration with Starshine Computing Power Technology.
Hess Corp. (HES) rises 7% after winning its arbitration battle with Exxon Mobil Corp., clearing the way for it to be bought by Chevron Corp. more than 20 months after the $53 billion deal was announced. Chevron (CVX) shares are up 3%
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) rises 5% after reporting total net interest income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
Netflix (NFLX) falls 1.7% after the streaming-video company’s strong second-quarter results clashed against high expectations. The stock has been a strong performer this year, up nearly 50% off an April low.
Sable Offshore (SOC) rises 6% after a Santa Barbara judge issued a preliminary ruling on the oil and gas company’s Las Flores Pipelines.
Sarepta (SRPT) sinks 31% after the gene therapy maker said another patient has died from acute liver failure after receiving one of its experimental gene therapies for a muscle disease.
Symbotic (SYM) slips 1.8% after Deutsche Bank cut the automation technology company to hold, citing that much of the stock’s growth is already priced in at the current valuation.
Viatris (VTRS) falls 3% after saying its Phase 3 trial of pimecrolimus 0.3% ophthalmic ointment for blepharitis did not meet the primary endpoint, prompting the company to review its development plans.
The dollars dipped and treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points to 4.43%, after Fed governor Waller again backed a July interest-rate cut to support a softening labor market. The message failed to catch on in money markets, with swaps pricing less than a 60% chance of a quarter-point cut in September and assign no probability to easing this month. The cross-asset moves come at the end of a week marked by market jitters over speculation that President Donald Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And sure enough, Trump continued his Fed attacks on Friday, saying policymakers “are choking out the housing market with their high rate.”
Meanwhile, the week’s market gains reflected strong economic data and optimism that US companies will post robust second-quarter figures, helping to soothe uncertainty stirred by Trump’s tariff war. Early results show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise 3.2% for the second quarter, slightly ahead of pre-season expectations of 2.8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
And speaking of earnings, on Friday, 3M raised its profit forecast and beat Wall Street’s estimates as CEO William Brown’s effort to reinvigorate the company gained momentum. American Express’s billed business on its cards and other products also beat forecasts. On Thursday, Netflix’s results surpassed expectations across all key metrics and raised its full-year outlook for both revenue and profit margins. The stock slipped in premarket trading after a near 50% rally from its April low.
“All that helps to reinforce the bull case for equities, with this solid underlying economic momentum likely to see earnings growth remain healthy,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.
In trade, EU purposed scrapping 10% duty on US cars if Trump lowers 25% tariff below 20%, crude is bid as the EU adopted its 18th sanction package against Russia capping oil price at $47 per barrel, and the US House passed the GENIUS ACT to regulate stablecoins which now heads to the President to sign.
Elsewhere, the share of global equity flows heading to the US has plunged in 2025, BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, as the trade war raises doubts about so-called American exceptionalism. US stock funds attracted just under half of total flows so far this year, compared with 72% in 2024. For Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International, risk assets are likely to remain well supported until next month, when US employment data may start to show some weakness.
“We remain positive on risky assets over the coming weeks, though we have taken some chips off the table,” Kumar noted. “Technicals will start to shift in August.”
Also don’t forget that today is a big option expiration Friday with over $2.8 trillion of notional options exposure will expire including $1.5 trillion of SPX options and $660 billion notional of single stock options. The notional open interest for this expiration is similar to that of last July. Next week we get ~23% of SPX mkt cap reporting and Powell speaking at a conference on Tuesday.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 initially rose 0.4% but has since erased gains, with Energy stocks outperforming and tracking a two-day advance in oil prices as Brent crude futures climb 1.2% to above $70 per barrel. Mining stocks also outperform after BHP delivered an upbeat assessment of Chinese demand. US equity futures edged higher. Here are the biggest European movers:
Saab shares soar as much as 13% to hit an all-time high after the defense technology business posted sales above expectations in the second quarter and raised its growth outlook for the full year.
Reckitt Benckiser shares rise as much as 2.2% after the UK consumer goods company agreed to sell most of its homecare business to Advent International for an enterprise value of up to $4.8 billion.
Vestas shares rise as much as 12%, hitting the highest level since May, after the wind turbine company announced a large order in the US amid a paucity of order activity in the region.
SKF advances as much as 5.5%, the most since May, after the Swedish ball-bearings giant reported a strong set of 2Q results, with analysts positively noting the company’s resilient sales and margins.
Senior shares jump as much as 19%, soaring to a 2019-high, after the company struck a deal to offload its Aerostructures business.
Getinge shares rise as much as 7.2%, the most since April 10, after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported adjusted operating profit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
GSK shares drop as much as 6.9%, the most since April 9, after the company’s blood cancer drug Blenrep failed to secure the backing of a panel of US regulatory advisers, putting its approval in doubt.
Kone falls as much as 4.6%, the most since April, after the Finnish elevator and escalator group’s second-quarter earnings slightly missed expectations in a report analysts otherwise deem as “mixed.”
Billerud drops as much as 8.6%, hitting the lowest since March 2024, as the paper and packaging firm delivered second-quarter results below analyst expectations, driven by weakness in Europe.
Yara International shares drop as much as 3.5%, making it the biggest laggard in the European chemicals space today, after posting quarterly adjusted Ebitda a touch below expectations.
Salzgitter slumps as much as 13%, the most since September 2022, after the steelmaker revealed second-quarter Ebitda that came in significantly below consensus expectations.
Electrolux falls as much as 14%, the most since April, after the Swedish home appliances maker reported weak underlying topline figures.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained for the week, helped by a jump in technology shares. Hong Kong’s equity market resumed a recent advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, putting the gauge on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks. TSMC was the biggest boost to the index, with sentiment aided by the chipmaker’s bullish sales outlook a day earlier. The Hang Seng Index rose 1.3% to the highest level in more than three years, as tech and financial stocks led the charge. Elsewhere, Japanese stocks dipped as investors remained cautious ahead of Sunday’s upper house election, with polls suggesting a potential loss of majority for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party. Here Are the Most Notable Movers
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s Taipei-listed shares closed up 2.2% to hit a record after the chipmaker raised its full-year forecast for revenue growth, a positive signal for AI demand.
Disco shares plunge after its quarterly shipment guidance disappoints investors. Seven & i’s stock fell after Macquarie cut its rating following Alimentation Couche-Tard’s bid withdrawal.
DigiPlus Interactive Corp. has turned from one of the world’s hottest casino stocks to the absolute worst as the Philippines moves to curb online gambling.
Wilmar International shares rise as much as 3%, the most since April 10, after announcing its plan to acquire up to 20% of AWL Agri Business Ltd. from Adani Commodities.
Wipro rises as much as 4.3% as analysts remain cautiously optimistic on the company after an in-line 1Q, strong deal wins and potential revenue recovery in 2Q.
Axis Bank Ltd.’s shares fell the most in a year on Friday after the Indian lender reported first-quarter net income that was sharply below analysts’ expectations, driven by a surge in provisions for bad loans.
POSCO Future M Co Ltd reported operating profit for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
United Laboratories International’s shares drop in Hong Kong after the drug maker agreed to sell as many as 156 million shares at HK$14.16 apiece in a placement.
Kingboard Laminates’ shares slump in Hong Kong after holder Kingboard Investments agreed to sell as many as 78.5 million shares at HK$10 apiece in a placement.
GCL Technology shares surge as much as 15% in Hong Kong, the most since May 13, after the Hong Kong-based company announced a deal with CPIC Investment Management (HK) to explore tokenization of real-world assets.
In FX, the dollar slipped 0.2%, trimming this week’s rally after Fed Governor Waller said policymakers should cut rates by 25bps this month. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.9% each. The yen dips slightly, as it remained under pressure ahead of an Upper House election in Japan on Sunday.
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield slips 1bps to 4.44%; 2-year yield drops 1bp after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that policymakers should cut interest rates this month to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness. He is scheduled to speak at 8am New York time in a Bloomberg TV interview. Traders are pricing a total of around 43bps of Fed easing through year-end, compared with around 49bps a week ago. The 2s10s curve steepens by less than 1bp. Despite Waller’s comments, swap contracts for the Fed’s July 30 rate decision price in no chance of a rate cut, with a combined 44bp of easing priced in by year-end.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance almost 1%, adding to Thursday’s gains. Spot gold rises $14 to around $3,353/oz. Bitcoin falls back below $119,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes June housing starts (8:30am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller, and Fed officials’ external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 decision starts Saturday. earnings releases include American Express and Charles Schwab.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.0%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
DAX +0.4%
CAC 40 +0.6%
10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.44%
VIX -0.1 points at 16.45
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1205.26
euro +0.4% at $1.1639
WTI crude +1.1% at $68.29/barrel
Top Overnight News
Trump is set to open the US retirement market to crypto investments with Trump preparing an executive order to allow 401k plans to tap a broad pool of alternative assets, according to FT.
Trump again warned Brazil to drop charges against Jair Bolsonaro, saying in an open letter addressed to the former leader he would be “watching closely.” President Lula da Silva said Brazil would not accept “blackmail” from the US and the country will respond to US tariffs on Aug. 1. BBG
Fed Chair Powell rebutted the Trump administrations accusations that he misled Congress over a $2.5bn refurbishment of the central bank’s HQ, saying it did not inform government planners of changes to the project because they were not “substantial” enough to warrant it. FT
The Fed’s Christopher Waller called for a quarter-point rate cut this month, saying the labor market is “on the edge” and upside risks to inflation are limited. Waller stated the Fed should not wait until the labor market hits trouble before cutting rates and delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later. Furthermore, he said a July rate cut could give the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings and noted they should cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting, as well as commented that data should determine the pace of rate cuts and there’s nothing wrong with taking out an insurance rate cut, just in case.
White House said President Trump signed an executive order creating a new classification of non-career federal workers and signed four proclamations, granting two years of regulatory relief from Biden-era regulations impacting sectors vital to security. Furthermore, the proclamations cover coal plants, taconite iron ore processing facilities, and certain chemical manufacturers that produce chemicals related to semiconductors, medical device sterilisation, and national defence systems.
China’s exports of rare-earth products jumped in June, pointing to a potential pickup in magnet supplies after government-imposed curbs that proved to be Beijing’s most powerful weapon in its trade war with the Trump administration. BBG
The ECB can delay its final rate cut until December without investors concluding that easing is over, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. BBG
Meta is said to have hired two Apple AI experts, shortly after poaching their former boss. BBG
China trimmed its US Treasury holdings for a third straight month in May, amid escalating trade tensions with Washington and mounting concerns over a sweeping tax and spending bill. China’s holdings fell to US $756.3 bn vs US$757.2bn in April, the lowest level since march 2009. SCMP
A slight easing in Japan’s consumer inflation is welcome news for the central bank, but stubbornly high food prices will be of concern for policymakers whose hands remain tied by tariffs. Japan’s national CPI came in at +3.3% in June (inline w/the Street and down from +3.5% in May), but core (ex-food/energy) ticked up to +3.4% (vs. the Street +3.3% and up from +3.3% in May). WSJ
The EU has reached an agreement on a new sanctions package against Russia, which includes a lower price cap for Moscow’s crude oil barrels, limited Russian bank’s access to funding, and a ban on using Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia and Germany. FT, CNBC
Trade/Tariffs
China Commerce Minister Wang said China and US economic and trade relations have gone through storms and remain important to each other, while he added the US has adopted more unilateral, protectionist measures since 2018, provoking frictions and that decoupling is doomed to fail as it contradicts economic development. Wang stated that mutual benefit is the essence of US-China commercial ties, as well as noted that ups and downs have taught both sides that there are things they need from each other. Wang also commented that differences and frictions are inevitable but dialogue and consultation are the best way to fix problems, and the key is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns. Furthermore, he said China still faces high US tariffs and that overall tariffs are in excess of 50%, while China wants to bring China-US commercial ties back to a state of healthy, sustainable development.
Canada’s International Trade Minister said they are getting officials to talk to Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to work through trade challenges, while the official also commented that there is appetite from both sides to have conversations with Mercosur and there seems to be energy to get things done quickly with ASEAN countries.
Canada said it reached a mutually satisfactory solution with New Zealand to resolve the CPTPP dairy TRQs dispute, while a dairy agreement with New Zealand will result in minor policy changes to Canada’s TRQ administration and does not amend Canada’s market access commitments.
Brazil’s President Lula said regarding US tariffs that Brazil always has been open to dialogue, as well as stated that trying to interfere in the Brazilian justice is a serious attack on Brazilian sovereignty and that Trump’s letter about tariffs was unacceptable blackmail. Furthermore, he said the defence of Brazil’s sovereignty also applies to the operation of digital platforms in the country. In relevant news, US President Trump posted a letter to former Brazilian President Bolsonaro voicing sympathy and said he will be watching Brazil closely.
Japanese Trade negotiator Akazawa says he discussed “various things” with US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Asked Bessent to vigorously continue discussions. Was friendly.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the positive handover from Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to fresh record highs with sentiment underpinned by better-than-expected data. ASX 200 outperformed its regional peers and climbed to a fresh all-time high as advances were led by the Mining, Materials and Resources sectors with the former helped by gains in BHP following its Q4 production update and with Novonix shares up around 20% on plans to boost US graphite production as the US sets 93.5% anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain a brief return above the 40,000 level and pared its opening gains amid cautiousness heading into the upper house election on Sunday with Japan facing political uncertainty should the ruling coalition fail to retain its majority in the House of Councillors. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned in tandem with the gains across most of the Asia-Pac region and as participants shrugged off reports that the US is setting a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on graphite from China and that China threatened to block the Panama Ports deal unless its shipping giant COSCO is part of it.
Top Asian News
China’s Cyberspace Administration said China and the EU agreed to set up a working team to cooperate on bilateral cross-border flows of autodata.
Japan’s PM Ishiba to hold press conference at 06:00BST on Monday following upper house elections.
European bourses began the day with gains after constructive APAC and US sessions, and have since extended, helped by strong quarterly reports, mostly from Scandi-listed companies. European sectors opened almost entirely in the green, and retain this bias. The only sector in the red is Healthcare, which has been dragged lower by GSK (-6%) after Blenrep failed to win FDA panel support. Energy tops the pile, lifted by Vestas (broker upgrade) and BP (sold LS Power).
Top European News
Dutch Finance Minister Heine says the EU’s MFF proposal for just under EUR 2.0tln is “dead on arrival”.
Morgan Stanley expects BoE to hold rates steady in September, revising previous forecast for a cut.
BofA expects the BoE to cut rates twice this year, in August and November, vs prev. exp. August, September and November Expects the bank to deliver cut in February 2026, taking terminal rate to 3.5%
ECB’s Nagel says financial markets speak their own language and are showing how Fed attacks affect them.
FX
DXY is a touch softer but still up some 0.6% on the week and higher for a second week in a row. The drivers for the USD upside have been a combination of resilient US data, expectations that a tariff compromise will be reached between the US and global trading partners, inflation that will limit near-term Fed easing and the market pulling back from being overly short the dollar. DXY is back below its 50DMA and towards the bottom end of Thursday’s 98.33-95 range.
EUR/USD is attempting to recoup some lost ground vs. the USD after hitting a MTD low on Thursday at 1.1555. Price action for EUR/USD this week has largely been at the whim of the USD. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.16 handle and is eyeing Thursday’s best at 1.1642.
JPY is flat vs. the USD as the ongoing rally in USD/JPY pauses for breath. Japanese inflation metrics overnight printed in-line and provided little traction for JPY with greater attention on this weekend’s upper house elections. USD/JPY has moved back onto a 148 handle and trades in a 148.30-88 range vs. the multi-month high printed on Wednesday at 149.18.
GBP is firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD with incremental drivers from the UK light today. Focus in the UK this week has been on the data slight with hot inflation data on Wednesday and soft labour market data on Thursday underscoring the market narrative that, whilst the BoE is expected to keep easing policy in the coming months, they are unlikely to accelerate their current quarterly pace of rate cuts.
Antipodeans are outperforming alongside the mostly positive risk appetite and recent rebound in commodity prices.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1736 (Prev. 7.1461).
Fixed Income
USTs are trading higher by a handful of ticks today and currently within a 110-19 to 110-24 range and trading towards the peak from Thursday at 110-25. Focus has been on commentary from the influential Fed Governor Waller; he continued to bolster his calls for a 25bps cut in July; he is set to talk later today also. Elsewhere, on trade updates, the White House said the EU continues to be very eager in trade negotiations. Elsewhere, on US/China relations, US is set to impose a 93.5% tariff on graphite used for battery material from China. Attention now turns to US Housing Starts/Building Permits and UoM Prelim data.
Bunds have traded with a downward bias throughout the morning, and are the underperformer today. Nothing fundamentally driving the pressure today, but perhaps just a function of the relatively positive risk tone. Currently trading towards the bottom end of a 129.53 to 129.82 range. Further pressure may see a dip below 129.50 and then towards Thursday’s low at 129.38. Newsflow and data docket has been relatively light so far; some focus on German Producer Prices, whereby the Y/Y figure printed in-line with expectations whilst the M/M component ticked higher from the prior and came in a touch above expectations.
Gilts are in the red, following EGBs, albeit to a lesser extent. Like above, downside today stems from the positive risk tone rather than any specific newsflow driven action. Trading in a tight 91.15 to 91.31 range, and currently just off the day’s trough. Today’s trough is a single tick above Thursday’s low, which also marks the WTD base.
Commodities
Crude rallied from the early European morning, got as high as USD 68.53/bbl and USD 70.40/bbl for WTI and Brent. Newsflow at the time was fairly light, price action largely a continuation of Thursday’s upside (spurred by further drone attacks on refineries in the Middle East) and following the general risk tone, which remains underpinned after Thursday’s very strong US session. Newsflow this morning has been focussed on the latest EU sanctions package. A package which, as expected, includes a new lower Russian oil price cap. The cap will now by dynamic, set USD 15/bbl below market rates (prev. set at USD 60.0/bbl) and begin in the USD 45-50/bbl range as a starting point.
Most recently, the complex has taken another leg higher and is approaching earlier peaks, no fresh fundamental driver behind the move.
Gold is bid after climbing gradually through the latter-half of Thursday’s session despite the strong risk tone. Upside that was potentially driven by the softer yield environment, which in turn was possibly driven by Import Price data and remarks from former Fed official Warsh. The metal then picked up a little further overnight to a USD 3350.44/oz peak. Upside that comes in contrast to the mostly firmer APAC risk tone, with China largely shrugging off the latest unfavourable tariff updates.
3M LME Copper is following the risk tone, posting notable gains pretty much across the board thus far. This has taken it to a USD 9.75k peak and to a fresh high for the week.
Asian refiners are reportedly increasing purchases of Kazakh CPC crude for August loadings amid lower European demand pressuring prices, according to Reuters citing traders.
Geopolitics
Qatar, Egypt, and the US presented Israel and Hamas with an updated Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal proposal on Wednesday, according to Axios.
Iran is moving to rearm its militia allies and is sending missiles to Hezbollah, while it seeks to smuggle weapons from Iraq to Syria and is moving quickly to replenish Houthi weapons stockpiles after US-Israeli strikes, according to WSJ.
French, German and UK Foreign Ministers and the EU high representative held a call with the Iranian Foreign Minister with an aim to relaunch talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, while E3 ministers told Iran’s Foreign Minister to return to the diplomatic pathway immediately to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear accord, as well as stressed again their determination to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran if no concrete progress is made towards a nuclear accord by the end of summer.
EU Foreign Representative Kallas says the EU has just approved one of its strongest sanction packages against Russia to date. Europe will continue to increase pressure on Russia until the war concludes. Includes a lower Russian oil price cap.
Iranian Foreign Minister says any new round of negotiations will only be possible if the other side expresses its readiness for a fair and balanced nuclear agreement, according to Sky News Arabia.
Ukrainian President Zelensky says the negotiation process with Russia requires “more momentum”, assigned Umerov to the National Security Council.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Jun Housing Starts, est. 1300k, prior 1256k
8:30 am: Jun P Building Permits, est. 1387k, prior 1394k
10:00 am: Jul P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 61.5, prior 60.7
Central Banks (All Times ET):
8:00 am: Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg TV
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.54%) and the NASDAQ (+0.74%) both reaching fresh all-time highs with the global rally mostly continuing this morning. The advance was driven by another batch of positive US data, including higher-than-expected retail sales, and then a 5th consecutive weekly decline in initial jobless claims. So that reassured investors that the US consumer was still resilient, and that the mid-Q2 jump in jobless claims was a blip rather than a permanent trend. With the stronger data and a continued rise in market inflation pricing, investors dialed down the amount of Fed rate cuts expected this year to 43bps, the lowest this has been since February. So collectively there is a growing sense of the US economy continuing to run hot, despite there being less than two weeks now until the August 1 tariff deadline. Overnight Fed Governor Waller, regarded as a potential candidate to succeed Powell, has expressed his preference for a 25bps reduction at the forthcoming late July meeting, citing escalating risks to the economy and the strong possibility that tariff-induced inflation will not lead to a sustained increase in price pressures. Furthermore, Waller cautioned that he has observed signs of strain in the labor market, reinforcing the argument for lower interest rates. He’ll likely largely be on his own for July which is why there’s only been a couple of basis point change in December pricing overnight alongside a 1.5 to 2bps UST rally across the curve. So notable comments but not enough at the moment to get close to swaying the committee, especially given the other Fed speak yesterday that we outline later.
Looking to the more immediate future, this Sunday will see the Upper House elections in Japan. Polls close at 8pm Tokyo time (12pm LDN) and final results are expected by the evening London time. Recent polls suggest that the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may lose its Upper House majority with questions whether Prime Minister Ishiba would resign as a result. Rising prices have been a major policy issue for voters and opposition parties have called for more fiscal support, notably via consumption tax cuts. Prospects of looser fiscal policy have added to the recent rise in JGB yields so the election will influence whether this sell-off has further to run. You can see more from our Japan economist, including on the BoJ implications, here), while our FX strategists have noted the potentially binary implications of the election for the yen (see here).
Overnight Japanese core CPI increased by +3.3% year-on-year in June (compared to +3.4% anticipated). This rise was less than the +3.7% increase in May, primarily due to the resumption of gasoline subsidies. Core core CPI excluding fresh food and energy was up by 3.4% (from 3.3%) and a tenth above expectations. In fact the core CPI actually rose by 3.344%, just 0.006% short of consensus. So net net they are stronger numbers than initially meet the eye. See our economists’ review of them here. 10 and 30yr JGBs are rallying by -3.5bps and -5bps respectively though.
Back to yesterday and that positive US data, headline retail sales rose +0.6% in June (vs. +0.1% expected), bouncing back after the previous two months of declines, while retail control grew +0.5% (+0.3% expected). Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to a three-month low of 221k in the week ending July 12 (vs. 233k expected). In turn, that took the 4-week average for claims down to a two-month low of 229.5k, which added to the sense that this was a durable trend.
This optimism provided a fresh boost to risk assets, with equities posting fresh gains on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the S&P 500 (+0.54%) was led higher by cyclical sectors, including banks (+1.40%), information technology (+0.88%) and industrials (+0.87%). The NASDAQ was up +0.74%, whilst the Magnificent 7 (+0.30%) posted a 7th consecutive advance for the first time in over a year. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even stronger gains, because the main indices had closed shortly before Trump’s denial that he was going to fire Fed Chair Powell, meaning they hadn’t recovered from the brief selloff yesterday. So that meant the STOXX 600 (+0.96%) ended a run of 4 consecutive declines, with a particular outperformance for the German DAX (+1.51%).
Over on the rates side, US Treasuries saw some further unwind of Wednesday’s moves when speculation mounted about Powell’s firing. So we got the reverse trend of a flatter yield curve, a higher dollar and higher equities, which was consistent with growing confidence about Powell’s position. Admittedly, Trump issued a fresh call for lower rates, posting “Too Late:” Great numbers just out. LOWER THE RATE!!!” But that was consistent with his remarks for several weeks, and wasn’t interpreted as a fresh challenge to Powell’s position.
That curve flattening yesterday also came as investors dialled back the likelihood of rapid rate cuts, as the strong data was interpreted in a hawkish light. So the probability of a cut by September fell to 54%, down from 58% the previous day, although we’re back to around 58% post Wallet in thinner Asian markets. At the US close the amount of cuts priced by December came down -3.2bps on the day to 43bps, its lowest since February 20 although its edged back up a basis point post Waller
The problem for the Fed contracts are that there are growing concerns about inflation, not least amid questions over how much of the upside in retail sales was due to price increases versus volume growth. In fact, the 2yr US inflation swap (+4.2bps) closed above 3% for the first time since March 2023, at 3.02%. And that concern was extending to longer horizons too, with the 5yr inflation swap (+3.0bps) also at its highest since March 2023, right before the regional banking crisis kicked off with SVB’s collapse. Matters also weren’t helped by higher oil prices, with WTI up +1.75% yesterday to $67.54/bbl.
Back in Europe, the economic data painted a less robust picture, with UK unemployment up to 4.7% (vs. 4.6% expected) in the three months to May, marking its highest level since June 2021, back when the economy was still recovering from the pandemic. However, gilts still underperformed and investors dialled back the likelihood of BoE rate cuts, as there were pretty strong revisions to the previous month. So even though the headlines were negative, the employment picture actually looked a bit more solid than previously thought. Notably, the -109k decline in payrolled employees in May was revised down to only -25k, so a much less severe decline than thought, even if it was followed up with another -41k fall in June (vs. -35k expected). So that meant gilt yields moved up across the curve, with the 2yr yield up +5.1bps, and the 10yr yield up +1.5bps. That was a contrast with the rest of Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps) fell back, alongside those on BTPs (-0.8bps).
In Asia markets are generally higher but the Nikkei (-0.31%) and the KOSPI (-0.43%) have both retraced earlier gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.63%), the CSI (+0.51%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.34%) are higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stands out as the top performer, rising (+1.33%) to a record high following disappointing labour market data released earlier this week, which has intensified expectations that the RBA will need to further reduce interest rates in the upcoming months after a surprising hold in July. US equity futures are up just over a tenth of a percent.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for June, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. Otherwise, earnings releases include American Express and Charles Schwab.
2b EUROPEAN OPENING REPORT
Stocks gain, USD softer & USTs firm ahead of Fed’s Waller and earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 05:58 AM
Fed’s Waller says they should cut by 25bps at the July meeting and thereafter adjust meeting-by-meeting.
European bourses are modestly higher whilst US futures take a breather following recent strength.
USD a touch softer but still very much up on the week; Antipodeans benefit from the risk tone.
USTs are firmer whilst Bunds underperform given the positive risk tone.
Base metals bolstered by the risk tone, precious metals benefit despite this but remain in familiar territory.
Looking ahead, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, UoM prelim, G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers include Fed’s Waller. Earnings from 3M, American Express, Charles Schwab.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
China Commerce Minister Wang said China and US economic and trade relations have gone through storms and remain important to each other, while he added the US has adopted more unilateral, protectionist measures since 2018, provoking frictions and that decoupling is doomed to fail as it contradicts economic development. Wang stated that mutual benefit is the essence of US-China commercial ties, as well as noted that ups and downs have taught both sides that there are things they need from each other. Wang also commented that differences and frictions are inevitable but dialogue and consultation are the best way to fix problems, and the key is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns. Furthermore, he said China still faces high US tariffs and that overall tariffs are in excess of 50%, while China wants to bring China-US commercial ties back to a state of healthy, sustainable development.
Canada’s International Trade Minister said they are getting officials to talk to Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to work through trade challenges, while the official also commented that there is appetite from both sides to have conversations with Mercosur and there seems to be energy to get things done quickly with ASEAN countries.
Canada said it reached a mutually satisfactory solution with New Zealand to resolve the CPTPP dairy TRQs dispute, while a dairy agreement with New Zealand will result in minor policy changes to Canada’s TRQ administration and does not amend Canada’s market access commitments.
Brazil’s President Lula said regarding US tariffs that Brazil always has been open to dialogue, as well as stated that trying to interfere in the Brazilian justice is a serious attack on Brazilian sovereignty and that Trump’s letter about tariffs was unacceptable blackmail. Furthermore, he said the defence of Brazil’s sovereignty also applies to the operation of digital platforms in the country. In relevant news, US President Trump posted a letter to former Brazilian President Bolsonaro voicing sympathy and said he will be watching Brazil closely.
Japanese Trade negotiator Akazawa says he discussed “various things” with US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Asked Bessent to vigorously continue discussions. Was friendly.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses began the day with gains after constructive APAC and US sessions, and have since extended, helped by strong quarterly reports, mostly from Scandi-listed companies.
European sectors opened almost entirely in the green, and retain this bias. The only sector in the red is Healthcare, which has been dragged lower by GSK (-6%) after Blenrep failed to win FDA panel support. Energy tops the pile, lifted by Vestas (broker upgrade) and BP (sold LS Power).
US equity futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.1% RTY U/C) are mixed/flat, paring from the upside seen in the prior session where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs.
Netflix (NFLX) topped Q2 profit and sales expectations, and it raised its FY sales and margin view, citing strong performance despite broader media industry cutbacks. Shares, however, slipped in afterhours trading, as the company flagged content expense rises in Q3 and Q4. It reported Q2 EPS of 7.19 (exp. 7.05), Q2 revenue USD 11.08bln (exp. 11.04bln). Netflix said ad sales momentum is strong, and US upfront deals are nearly complete. Expects H2 2025 operating margin to be lower than H1.
DXY is a touch softer but still up some 0.6% on the week and higher for a second week in a row. The drivers for the USD upside have been a combination of resilient US data, expectations that a tariff compromise will be reached between the US and global trading partners, inflation that will limit near-term Fed easing and the market pulling back from being overly short the dollar. DXY is back below its 50DMA and towards the bottom end of Thursday’s 98.33-95 range.
EUR/USD is attempting to recoup some lost ground vs. the USD after hitting a MTD low on Thursday at 1.1555. Price action for EUR/USD this week has largely been at the whim of the USD. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.16 handle and is eyeing Thursday’s best at 1.1642.
JPY is flat vs. the USD as the ongoing rally in USD/JPY pauses for breath. Japanese inflation metrics overnight printed in-line and provided little traction for JPY with greater attention on this weekend’s upper house elections. USD/JPY has moved back onto a 148 handle and trades in a 148.30-88 range vs. the multi-month high printed on Wednesday at 149.18.
GBP is firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD with incremental drivers from the UK light today. Focus in the UK this week has been on the data slight with hot inflation data on Wednesday and soft labour market data on Thursday underscoring the market narrative that, whilst the BoE is expected to keep easing policy in the coming months, they are unlikely to accelerate their current quarterly pace of rate cuts.
Antipodeans are outperforming alongside the mostly positive risk appetite and recent rebound in commodity prices.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1736 (Prev. 7.1461).
USTs are trading higher by a handful of ticks today and currently within a 110-19 to 110-24 range and trading towards the peak from Thursday at 110-25. Focus has been on commentary from the influential Fed Governor Waller; he continued to bolster his calls for a 25bps cut in July; he is set to talk later today also. Elsewhere, on trade updates, the White House said the EU continues to be very eager in trade negotiations. Elsewhere, on US/China relations, US is set to impose a 93.5% tariff on graphite used for battery material from China. Attention now turns to US Housing Starts/Building Permits and UoM Prelim data.
Bunds have traded with a downward bias throughout the morning, and are the underperformer today. Nothing fundamentally driving the pressure today, but perhaps just a function of the relatively positive risk tone. Currently trading towards the bottom end of a 129.53 to 129.82 range. Further pressure may see a dip below 129.50 and then towards Thursday’s low at 129.38. Newsflow and data docket has been relatively light so far; some focus on German Producer Prices, whereby the Y/Y figure printed in-line with expectations whilst the M/M component ticked higher from the prior and came in a touch above expectations.
Gilts are in the red, following EGBs, albeit to a lesser extent. Like above, downside today stems from the positive risk tone rather than any specific newsflow driven action. Trading in a tight 91.15 to 91.31 range, and currently just off the day’s trough. Today’s trough is a single tick above Thursday’s low, which also marks the WTD base.
Crude rallied from the early European morning, got as high as USD 68.53/bbl and USD 70.40/bbl for WTI and Brent. Newsflow at the time was fairly light, price action largely a continuation of Thursday’s upside (spurred by further drone attacks on refineries in the Middle East) and following the general risk tone, which remains underpinned after Thursday’s very strong US session. Newsflow this morning has been focussed on the latest EU sanctions package. A package which, as expected, includes a new lower Russian oil price cap. The cap will now by dynamic, set USD 15/bbl below market rates (prev. set at USD 60.0/bbl) and begin in the USD 45-50/bbl range as a starting point.
Most recently, the complex has taken another leg higher and is approaching earlier peaks, no fresh fundamental driver behind the move.
Gold is bid after climbing gradually through the latter-half of Thursday’s session despite the strong risk tone. Upside that was potentially driven by the softer yield environment, which in turn was possibly driven by Import Price data and remarks from former Fed official Warsh. The metal then picked up a little further overnight to a USD 3350.44/oz peak. Upside that comes in contrast to the mostly firmer APAC risk tone, with China largely shrugging off the latest unfavourable tariff updates.
3M LME Copper is following the risk tone, posting notable gains pretty much across the board thus far. This has taken it to a USD 9.75k peak and to a fresh high for the week.
Asian refiners are reportedly increasing purchases of Kazakh CPC crude for August loadings amid lower European demand pressuring prices, according to Reuters citing traders.
German Producer Prices MM (Jun) 0.1% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.2%); YY -1.3% vs. Exp. -1.3% (Prev. -1.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Dutch Finance Minister Heine says the EU’s MFF proposal for just under EUR 2.0tln is “dead on arrival”.
Morgan Stanley expects BoE to hold rates steady in September, revising previous forecast for a cut.
BofA expects the BoE to cut rates twice this year, in August and November, vs prev. exp. August, September and November Expects the bank to deliver cut in February 2026, taking terminal rate to 3.5%
ECB’s Nagel says financial markets speak their own language and are showing how Fed attacks affect them.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed Chair Powell sent a response to questions from OMB Director Vought in which he stated the Fed Board believes transparency is of the utmost importance and cited ongoing reviews including by the Inspector General of the project since it began in 2017, while he added that collaboration with National Capital Planning Commission has been constructive and robust, but was voluntary on the part of the Fed. Powell said changes since the NCPC approval were to scale back and simplify construction and added no new elements, with no further review warranted.
Fed’s Waller (voter) said the Fed should cut interest rates by 25bps at the July meeting and rising risks to the economy favour easing the policy rate, while he added that if underlying inflation remains in check and growth tepid, more cuts are needed. Waller stated the Fed should not wait until the labour market hits trouble before cutting rates and delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later. Furthermore, he said a July rate cut could give the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings and noted they should cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting, as well as commented that data should determine the pace of rate cuts and there’s nothing wrong with taking out an insurance rate cut, just in case.
White House said President Trump signed an executive order creating a new classification of non-career federal workers and signed four proclamations, granting two years of regulatory relief from Biden-era regulations impacting sectors vital to security. Furthermore, the proclamations cover coal plants, taconite iron ore processing facilities, and certain chemical manufacturers that produce chemicals related to semiconductors, medical device sterilisation, and national defence systems.
US President Trump is set to open the US retirement market to crypto investments with Trump preparing an executive order to allow 401k plans to tap a broad pool of alternative assets, according to FT.
GEOPOLITICS
Qatar, Egypt, and the US presented Israel and Hamas with an updated Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal proposal on Wednesday, according to Axios.
Iran is moving to rearm its militia allies and is sending missiles to Hezbollah, while it seeks to smuggle weapons from Iraq to Syria and is moving quickly to replenish Houthi weapons stockpiles after US-Israeli strikes, according to WSJ.
French, German and UK Foreign Ministers and the EU high representative held a call with the Iranian Foreign Minister with an aim to relaunch talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, while E3 ministers told Iran’s Foreign Minister to return to the diplomatic pathway immediately to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear accord, as well as stressed again their determination to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran if no concrete progress is made towards a nuclear accord by the end of summer.
EU Foreign Representative Kallas says the EU has just approved one of its strongest sanction packages against Russia to date. Europe will continue to increase pressure on Russia until the war concludes. Includes a lower Russian oil price cap.
Iranian Foreign Minister says any new round of negotiations will only be possible if the other side expresses its readiness for a fair and balanced nuclear agreement, according to Sky News Arabia.
Ukrainian President Zelensky says the negotiation process with Russia requires “more momentum”, assigned Umerov to the National Security Council.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is flat, whilst Ethereum outperforms and sits above the USD 3.6k mark; XRP has been soaring over the past couple of days, notching fresh ATHs overnight.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the positive handover from Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to fresh record highs with sentiment underpinned by better-than-expected data.
ASX 200 outperformed its regional peers and climbed to a fresh all-time high as advances were led by the Mining, Materials and Resources sectors with the former helped by gains in BHP following its Q4 production update and with Novonix shares up around 20% on plans to boost US graphite production as the US sets 93.5% anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite.
Nikkei 225 failed to sustain a brief return above the 40,000 level and pared its opening gains amid cautiousness heading into the upper house election on Sunday with Japan facing political uncertainty should the ruling coalition fail to retain its majority in the House of Councillors.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned in tandem with the gains across most of the Asia-Pac region and as participants shrugged off reports that the US is setting a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on graphite from China and that China threatened to block the Panama Ports deal unless its shipping giant COSCO is part of it.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Cyberspace Administration said China and the EU agreed to set up a working team to cooperate on bilateral cross-border flows of autodata.
Japan’s PM Ishiba to hold press conference at 06:00BST on Monday following upper house elections.
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (Jun) 3.3% vs Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%)
Japanese National CPI YY Ex. Fresh Food (Jun) 3.3% vs Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.7%)
Japanese National CPI YY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy (Jun) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%)
2C ASIAN OPENING REPORT
Europe primed for a firmer open after S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 01:16 AM
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs, Russell 2000 outperformed for the second consecutive day.
Fed’s Waller says they should cut by 25bps at the July meeting and thereafter adjust meeting-by-meeting.
APAC stocks predominantly higher, China shrugged off a 93.5% tariff on graphite; European futures point to a firmer open.
DXY rangebound, EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.16 handle, Antipodeans outperformed after Thursday’s AUD pressure.
Fixed benchmarks marginally higher, JGBs in-fitting into the weekend’s Upper House election.
Crude holds onto Thursday’s upside, XAU rangebound, base metals post mild gains.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, UoM prelim, G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including ECB’s Nagel & German Finance Minister Klingbeil, Earnings from 3M, American Express, Charles Schwab, Atlas Copco, Hexpol, Boliden, Skanska, Telia & Danske Bank.
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EQUITIES
US stocks traded higher with all major indices in the green and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 printed fresh record highs, while the small cap Russell 2000 outperformed for the second consecutive day with sentiment underpinned by encouraging data releases including better-than-expected US Retail Sales and Retail Control, although analysts highlighted the growth was not as strong in real terms. Furthermore, the Philly Fed headline index topped the most optimistic of analyst estimates and Initial Jobless Claims surprisingly declined, while sectors were almost exclusively positive on the day, led by Technology, Financials, and Industrials, with only Healthcare in the red which was weighed on by disappointing Elevance Health (-13.5%) earnings.
SPX +0.54% at 6,297, NDX +0.74% at 23,078, DJI +0.52% at 44,484, RUT +1.20% at 2,254.
White House said the EU continues to be very eager in trade negotiations.
US is set to impose a 93.5% tariff on graphite used for battery material from China.
China Commerce Minister Wang said China and US economic and trade relations have gone through storms and remain important to each other, while he added the US has adopted more unilateral, protectionist measures since 2018, provoking frictions and that decoupling is doomed to fail as it contradicts economic development. Wang stated that mutual benefit is the essence of US-China commercial ties, as well as noted that ups and downs have taught both sides that there are things they need from each other. Wang also commented that differences and frictions are inevitable but dialogue and consultation are the best way to fix problems, and the key is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns. Furthermore, he said China still faces high US tariffs and that overall tariffs are in excess of 50%, while China wants to bring China-US commercial ties back to a state of healthy, sustainable development.
Canada’s International Trade Minister said they are getting officials to talk to Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to work through trade challenges, while the official also commented that there is appetite from both sides to have conversations with Mercosur and there seems to be energy to get things done quickly with ASEAN countries.
Canada said it reached a mutually satisfactory solution with New Zealand to resolve the CPTPP dairy TRQs dispute, while a dairy agreement with New Zealand will result in minor policy changes to Canada’s TRQ administration and does not amend Canada’s market access commitments.
Brazil’s President Lula said regarding US tariffs that Brazil always has been open to dialogue, as well as stated that trying to interfere in the Brazilian justice is a serious attack on Brazilian sovereignty and that Trump’s letter about tariffs was unacceptable blackmail. Furthermore, he said the defence of Brazil’s sovereignty also applies to the operation of digital platforms in the country. In relevant news, US President Trump posted a letter to former Brazilian President Bolsonaro voicing sympathy and said he will be watching Brazil closely.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed Chair Powell sent a response to questions from OMB Director Vought in which he stated the Fed Board believes transparency is of the utmost importance and cited ongoing reviews including by the Inspector General of the project since it began in 2017, while he added that collaboration with National Capital Planning Commission has been constructive and robust, but was voluntary on the part of the Fed. Powell said changes since the NCPC approval were to scale back and simplify construction and added no new elements, with no further review warranted.
Fed’s Waller (voter) said the Fed should cut interest rates by 25bps at the July meeting and rising risks to the economy favour easing the policy rate, while he added that if underlying inflation remains in check and growth tepid, more cuts are needed. Waller stated the Fed should not wait until the labour market hits trouble before cutting rates and delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later. Furthermore, he said a July rate cut could give the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings and noted they should cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting, as well as commented that data should determine the pace of rate cuts and there’s nothing wrong with taking out an insurance rate cut, just in case.
Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter) said the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and the economy’s tariff adjustment could take months. Bostic also stated that his view is that questions (re. if the economy can absorb tariffs) are blocking the path to further cuts for now, especially given lasting scars from the searing inflation the economy weathered in the early 2020s, while he noted that cuts “might be difficult in the short run”. Furthermore, with the Fed facing intense pressure from President Trump and his allies to cut rates, Bostic said the central bank must be ready to make unpopular decisions when they are in the economy’s best long-run interest.
Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said they still have some work to do on inflation, while they have solid growth and a solid labour market but what is bothersome still is they haven’t achieved price stability. Daly sees both the economy and policy in a good place and noted that rates have been restrictive for a significant number of years. Daly stated they have not seen evidence that tariffs are spilling over more broadly into persistent inflation and might have a more muted impact from tariffs than they thought. She also said don’t want to lower rates pre-emptively, and two rate cuts this year is a ‘reasonable’ outlook.
White House said President Trump signed an executive order creating a new classification of non-career federal workers and signed four proclamations, granting two years of regulatory relief from Biden-era regulations impacting sectors vital to security. Furthermore, the proclamations cover coal plants, taconite iron ore processing facilities, and certain chemical manufacturers that produce chemicals related to semiconductors, medical device sterilisation, and national defence systems.
US President Trump is set to open the US retirement market to crypto investments with Trump preparing an executive order to allow 401k plans to tap a broad pool of alternative assets, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the positive handover from Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to fresh record highs with sentiment underpinned by better-than-expected data.
ASX 200 outperformed its regional peers and climbed to a fresh all-time high as advances were led by the Mining, Materials and Resources sectors with the former helped by gains in BHP following its Q4 production update and with Novonix shares up around 20% on plans to boost US graphite production as the US sets 93.5% anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite.
Nikkei 225 failed to sustain a brief return above the 40,000 level and pared its opening gains amid cautiousness heading into the upper house election on Sunday with Japan facing political uncertainty should the ruling coalition fail to retain its majority in the House of Councillors.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned in tandem with the gains across most of the Asia-Pac region and as participants shrugged off reports that the US is setting a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on graphite from China and that China threatened to block the Panama Ports deal unless its shipping giant COSCO is part of it.
US equity futures marginally extended on the prior day’s data-driven advances following the recent record-setting performance on Wall St.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound after strengthening yesterday in a reversal of the recent Trump vs. Powell trade and with momentum facilitated by the US data releases in which Retail Sales, Philly Fed Business Index and Initial Jobless Claims all printed better than expected. Nonetheless, FX trade has quietened overnight with little reaction seen to the latest Fed commentary including from Daly who suggested they don’t want to lower rates pre-emptively and that two rate cuts this year is a ‘reasonable’ outlook, while Fed’s Waller bolstered his call for a July rate cut and stated that if underlying inflation remains in check and growth tepid, more cuts are needed.
EUR/USD nursed the prior day’s losses and reclaimed the 1.1600 status after having retreated the prior day owing to US data and as trade uncertainty lingered with White House Trade Advisor Navarro noting that non-tariff barriers remain a major challenge for the EU and with the bloc reportedly preparing a list of potential tariffs on US services alongside export controls in the event that trade talks with the US fail.
GBP/USD mildly extended its rebound following the brief dips beneath the 1.3400 handle, albeit with the upside gradual after recent mixed jobs data from the UK.
USD/JPY lacked firm direction after a recent failed attempt to reclaim the 149.00 handle and as risk sentiment in Japan deteriorated, while CPI data provided little to shift the dial and printed in line with forecasts.
Antipodeans outperformed alongside the mostly positive risk appetite and recent rebound in commodity prices.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1736 (Prev. 7.1461).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures were mildly higher following recent price swings and curve flattening owing to an unwinding of the Trump vs Powell trade and with data in focus.
Bund futures remained subdued after a pullback from this week’s peak, with PPI data and comments from ECB’s Nagel and Germany’s Finance Minister due later.
10yr JGB futures edged higher amid the cautious mood in Japan heading into the upper house election, while the latest CPI data printed in line with estimates and mostly decelerated, but showed headline consumer inflation remained above the 3% level for the fourth consecutive month.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures held on to the prior day’s spoils after advancing amid further drone strikes on Iraqi oil fields, while there were also late tailwinds coinciding with reports that Iran is moving to rearm its militia allies.
Spot gold traded rangebound following yesterday’s two-way performance and post-data rebound.
Copper futures eked mild gains with prices kept afloat amid the mostly positive overnight risk appetite.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin mildly gained overnight and briefly reclaimed the 120k status after the House voted overwhelmingly to pass the GENIUS Act which sends the legislation to President Trump for signing. Furthermore, the House also passed the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, which would create a new market structure for cryptocurrency and passed another bill to prohibit the US offering a CBDC although both still need Senate approval.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Commerce Minister Wang said the greater challenges are, the more clearly we can see China’s institutional advantages, while he added the 14th five-year plan can be summed up as expansion of a super-large market and that the long-term fundamentals of China’s economy remain unchanged. Wang stated the priority for the 15th five-year plan is to take good aspects of the 14th five-year plan and turn them into long-term mechanisms, as well as noted that China has a rich policy toolbox and will roll out measures when required. Furthermore, he stated that China will introduce policies to further stimulate consumption and boost services consumption.
China’s Cyberspace Administration said China and the EU agreed to set up a working team to cooperate on bilateral cross-border flows of autodata.
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (Jun) 3.3% vs Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%)
Japanese National CPI YY Ex. Fresh Food (Jun) 3.3% vs Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.7%)
Japanese National CPI YY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy (Jun) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Qatar, Egypt, and the US presented Israel and Hamas with an updated Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal proposal on Wednesday, according to Axios.
Iran is moving to rearm its militia allies and is sending missiles to Hezbollah, while it seeks to smuggle weapons from Iraq to Syria and is moving quickly to replenish Houthi weapons stockpiles after US-Israeli strikes, according to WSJ.
French, German and UK Foreign Ministers and the EU high representative held a call with the Iranian Foreign Minister with an aim to relaunch talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, while E3 ministers told Iran’s Foreign Minister to return to the diplomatic pathway immediately to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear accord, as well as stressed again their determination to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran if no concrete progress is made towards a nuclear accord by the end of summer.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE reportedly asked some lenders to test for resilience to US dollar shocks, while testing follows similar moves by the ECB and scenarios include the US Dollar swap market drying up.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA PHILIPPINES
US To Build Fast Boat Base In The Philippines To Confront Chinese Vessels
The US will fund and construct a base for fast boats for the Philippine military on the South China Sea amid heightened tensions between Manila and Beijing over disputed rocks and reefs in the area.
The base will be built on the west coast of the Philippine island province of Palawan and is expected to be completed by the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. According to USNI News, the base will house five boats, including both “assault boats” and rigid-hulled inflatable boats, which will be constructed by the US-based company ReconCraft.
The USNI report said that the base will be situated approximately 160 miles east of Second Thomas Shoal, a major source of tensions in the maritime dispute and the site of collisions and encounters between Chinese and Philippine vessels.
Despite the distance, the Philippine military frequently deploys small boats to the disputed reefs, and the US project will give them a more effective way to do that.
It’s unclear how much the project will cost the US, but it’s the latest in a series of US-funded military construction projects in the Philippines.
The South China Sea has become a potential flashpoint for a conflict between the US and China since Washington has repeatedly affirmed that its mutual defense treaty with Manila applies to attacks on Philippine vessels in the disputed waters.
Last year, it was revealed that US troops were secretly deployed to Palawa to assist the Philippines in its maritime dispute with China.
The US military has also been involved in military drills in the area and fired missiles using HIMARS rocket systems into the South China Sea from Palawan earlier this year as part of the US-Philippine Balikatan exercise.
END
CHINA/USA
Xi honours Trump by announcing death sentence for fentanyl manufacturers and traffickers
(zerohedge)
China Will Sentence Fentanyl Traffickers To Death, Trump Says
President Donald Trump on Wednesday told a crowd at the White House, which included dozens of family members of fentanyl poisoning victims, that China will honor a deal he made with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during his first term and sentence people to death for fentanyl manufacturing and distribution.
The president made the remarks during a signing ceremony for the Halt All Lethal Trafficking of Fentanyl Act.
“The death penalty is going to be imposed on people from China that make fentanyl and send it into our country,” Trump said. “I believe that is going to happen soon.”
After taking office again in 2025, Trump targeted China with punitive tariffs for failing to live up to the deal that would help address the U.S fentanyl crisis.
Manufacturers in China distribute the precursor chemicals needed to create the illicit drug to various criminal organizations around the world.
Altering the compounds can allow deliveries to go unnoticed at some inspection points, and criminals have begun creating alternative versions of the deadly drug, including carfentanil, which is 100 times more potent than fentanyl, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration.
“I imposed a 20 percent tariff on China because of the fentanyl … it’s a penalty because China delivers much of the fentanyl, some people would say all of it, delivered into Mexico and even into our own country,” Trump said.
“We have a 20 percent [tariff], so they pay billions of dollars and billions of dollars in damages for what they’ve done.”
Following a meeting in June with U.S. Ambassador David Perdue, the Chinese communist regime added two fentanyl precursors to its list of banned substances, with enforcement beginning July 20.
More than 450,000 Americans have died of synthetic opioid overdoses over the past decade, with millions more addicted.
President Donald Trump holds up the “Halt All Lethal Trafficking of Fentanyl Act,” which strengthens prison sentences for fentanyl traffickers, after signing it in the East Room of the White House on July 16, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Before signing the HALT Fentanyl Act on Wednesday, Trump said: “This is a very special time because we’ve worked very hard to put ourselves in this position. Today we strike a righteous blow to the drug dealers, narcotic traffickers, and criminal cartels that we’ve heard about for so many years.”
The legislation, which passed with bipartisan support, reclassifies substances related to the synthetic opioids as Schedule 1 narcotics, the strictest designation established by the Controlled Substances Act.
The new law mandates a minimum 10-year prison sentence for those convicted of distributing at least 100 grams of any fentanyl-related substance, enough to kill approximately 50,000 people, based on DEA statistics.
Critics of the bill suggested that demand is fueling supply and argued that the new law could disproportionately impact marginalized communities by increasing incarceration rates.
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said in March that the bill would do little to solve the fentanyl crisis.
“[It] will make it harder to research addiction and overdose reversal medication, disrupt communities and families by incarcerating rather than treating addiction, and divert resources from methods that work to disrupt the flow of fentanyl in the United States to strategies from the outdated War-on-Drugs solutions that do not work,” Markey said. “Families are asking us to do something about the fentanyl crisis, and rather than do that, we are simply enabling a political stunt at the expense of real solutions.”
end
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE/EU
A Storm is developing here: the EU has increased its budget dramatically much to the alarm of Franc\who itself is in a mess;
In an effort to relieve pressure from France’s ballooning debt crisis, Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National, has called for a reduction in the country’s contribution to the European Union. On the very same day, Brussels unveiled its colossal €2 trillion mega-budget. A tale of chronological dissonance.
It was only a post on “X” – a fleeting tweet from Marine Le Pen responding to the heated French budget debate. A few lines that would normally disappear in the fast-moving timeline and social media noise without ever imprinting themselves on public consciousness.
“François Bayrou wants to implement a ‘white year’ – in other words, a draconian fiscal and social austerity program – to save seven billion euros. That’s exactly the amount by which France’s contribution to the European Union has increased. How can such waste be tolerated, when the French voted overwhelmingly in the EU elections to freeze this spending by supporting Jordan Bardella’s list?”
Brussels as Fiscal Pressure Valve?
France will contribute a net €14 billion to the EU budget this year. But what matters here is the timing of Le Pen’s tweet. Her long-standing disputes with Brussels are well known – especially since her suspension from upcoming French elections.
Her call for budget cuts isn’t new. But the renewed demand gains weight by coinciding with the unveiling of the EU Commission’s new budget under President Ursula von der Leyen.
Reality vs. Ambition
The Brussels central apparatus has drafted a budget of €2 trillion for the years 2028 to 2034 – a staggering display of fiscal gigantism. It’s an anachronism, considering the financial catastrophe looming over many EU member states, not least France, which is headed for a deficit exceeding six percent.
Given the debt situation in Southern Europe, it’s increasingly difficult to reconcile Brussels’ fiscal ambitions with economic realities on the ground.
Strikingly, the reaction to Le Pen’s criticism was muted. Both Brussels and the French government coalition remained silent – arguably a smart media strategy. A public budget debate at this point would only stir a hornet’s nest better left undisturbed.
Populism Included
Le Pen’s assault on Brussels’ budgetary authority carries deep-seated resentment. As the EU’s second-largest net contributor, France is a structural pillar of the Union’s financial framework. Should a heavyweight like France or Germany step out of line and reject the official narrative, the fragile EU edifice would begin to crumble.
We are already witnessing a resurgence of national-conservative parties – Fidesz in Hungary, SMER in Slovakia, the governing coalition in Italy, and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands – all forming a serious opposition to Brussels-style centralism. Le Pen’s laconic tweet could pack explosive potential. Could these parties define a shared vector of attack? Have they identified the bloated EU budget as a weak spot?
It’s high time to recalibrate the power dynamics between Brussels and the legitimate national interests of member states. The fiscal gigantism unleashed under von der Leyen’s leadership is steering the EU into dangerous waters. Centralized overreach, grotesque climate policies, and open-border radicalism are fraying Europe’s internal cohesion.
Brussels Seeks Autonomy
The EU Commission is playing high-stakes poker. The €2 trillion budget – about 1.26 percent of EU GDP – reflects a jaw-dropping 58 percent increase, or €750 billion. That raises urgent questions about financing. Brussels is morphing into a Leviathan – growing unchecked, with gaping democratic deficits, and a leadership ambition that now breaches into the sovereign spheres of nations and their citizens.
The truth is: most EU member states simply cannot afford this fiscal expansion. This appears to be Brussels’ attempt to coerce financial and tax sovereignty – a political extortion play: “If you don’t open the door to Eurobonds, you’ll foot the bill yourselves!”
The recurring debate around Eurobonds – possibly repackaged as war bonds to finance the Ukraine conflict – as well as new revenue tools like taxes on multinational corporations or expanded CO₂ trading, offer a clear glimpse into what Brussels has in store.
Expect two developments: the consolidation of national debt under the EU Commission’s umbrella and the continued monetization of new debt via the European Central Bank. Alongside Brussels’ fiscal power grab, we are likely to see the introduction of a digital euro – the perfect capital control mechanism, an optimized surveillance currency enabling central Brussels to tighten its grip over European economic life.
Fuel For The Opposition
Here’s a prediction: this political strategy will only strengthen opposition forces across Europe. Given the brewing budgetary crises in many states, the EU is headed for major internal battles over its financial direction. A coordinated payment boycott would be the ideal rallying cry for national conservatives – a public relations slam dunk if the debt spiral accelerates.
It is entirely possible that Le Pen’s tweet was designed — in coordination with Brussels’ critics – to set the tone for what’s coming. And a storm may be gathering on the horizon for Ursula von der Leyen and her allies. The myriad unresolved crises stirred up by Brussels’ migration policies and destructive climate agenda have created the ideal conditions for high-impact political counteroffensives – especially against a Commission whose arrogance is wearing thin with a growing share of the European electorate.
END
GERMANY//EU BUDGET
Now it is Germany’s turn to blast the EU budget:
(zerohedge)
‘Unacceptable’: Von der Leyen’s €2 Trillion EU Budget Blasted By Germany Amid Botched Rollout
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 02:45 AM
In a huge embarrassment for EU leadership, the day following European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen having presented an ambitious some 2 trillion euro, seven-year EU budget in Brussels, the government of Germany has made clear its firm rejection, calling the plan “unacceptable”.
“A comprehensive increase in the EU budget is unacceptable at a time when all member states are making considerable efforts to consolidate their national budgets,”said Stefan Kornelius, spokesperson for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government in Berlin late Wednesday. “We will therefore not be able to accept the Commission’s proposal.”
The Commission proposed a central EU budget of €1.816 trillion (excluding COVID-19 borrowing repayments), for the period from 2028 to 2034, which marks a massive increase over the current running budget which was formalized in 2021. “Germany, as the EU’s biggest contributor, would be on the hook for about a quarter of that spending,”Bloomberg underscores.
Von der Leyen hailed that this marks “a budget for a new era that reflects Europe’s ambitions” – and further she described “the most ambitious EU budget ever: more strategic, flexible, and transparent. We are investing more in our independence and in our capacity to respond,” according to the statement.
The European Commission has proposed three new taxes, specifically on electronic waste, tobacco products, and high-revenue companies – in an effort repay the EU’s post-Covid debt, which would require an estimated €25-€30 billion annually.
“We do not support the additional corporate taxation put forward by the Commission,” the German Chancellor’s spokesperson continued from Berlin.
Instead, Berlin is calling for the bloc to stick to the Commission’s existing reform agenda and maintaining a focus on strategic priorities within the EU budget. “This direction is the right one to strengthen Europe for the future,” he added.
German conservative leader Merz has all along been consistent on this. “We need to realign the priorities within the EU budget,” Merz said in late June. “New responsibilities should not automatically lead to more spending… and that’s the real challenge we now face.”
FT describes a horribly botched rollout, with members fed up with von der Leyen’s secretive pressure tactics:
Ursula von der Leyen’s plan for the EU’s biggest ever budget has sparked uproar inside the European Commission, with colleagues warning the president’s ultra-centralized style has already compromised the €2tn cash call.
Prepared for months and largely kept secret from von der Leyen’s team of commissioners, the draft 2028-2034 budget plan prompted rare internal pushback that forced significant concessions in the hours before publication.
The revolt has underscored the long-bubbling resentment at her “rubber stamp” approach towards the commission after years of walled-off decision-making that critics say has made Brussels inflexible and prone to mis-steps.
“I have never seen it this bad,” said one senior diplomat from an EU member state who has worked on the past three budget negotiations. “Nobody knew what they were getting or what they were paying until the last minute.”
As expected, the earliest pushback on Wednesday came from Hungary, with Prime Minister Viktor Orban stating on X, “A shocking new EU budget leak reveals a dangerous gamble: Ukraine would get a massive funding boost, while European farmers lose out. This plan risks sidelining rural Europe and threatening families across the continent. Brussels must not abandon Europe’s farmers to bankroll Ukraine.”
Countries like Hungary, as well as Slovakia and Poland – or other conservative/nationalist leaning populations, won’t be comfortable with more ‘rule of law’ strings attached to funding as well:
Another headline-making novelty in von der Leyen’s proposal is her strong focus on the rule of law. Her first mandate saw her executive freeze billions in EU funds for Hungary and Poland over their democratic backsliding and continued legal breaches.
The freezing, however, only covered a share of the allocated funds to the wayward countries, fuelling criticism that the Commission was carelessly allowing taxpayers’ money to flow despite violations of EU law and fundamental rights.
The disputes left a mark on von der Leyen: she now intends to make all funds, from farming subsidies to social policy, conditional on the respect for the rule of law.
“The rule of law is a must for all funding from the EU budget,” she said on Wednesday.
“We will ensure responsible spending and full accountability, with very strong safeguards, and the right incentives. This serves the citizens.”
So clearly, there are plenty of roadblocks possible, given new proposal must be approved unanimously by all 27 EU member states and passed by the European Parliament in negotiations which would likely unfold over two years.
The budget for 2028-2034 must be approved by the end of 2027- and a lot can happen between now and then, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. The European Commission plans to include a whopping €100 billion in funding for Ukraine as part of this new budget.
Certainly President Trump has voiced wanting to see peace break out long before then, but these efforts haven’t amounted to anything so far. Hungary and Slovakia will have much to say too.
END
SWITZERLAND
smart move banning foreigners from Swiss pool!
Remix
After Foreigners Banned From Swiss Pool, Season Ticket Sales Surge And Police Incidents Stop
After all foreigners were banned from a Swiss swimming pool in Porrentruy over violence, sexual harassment and constant disturbances, Swiss visitors to the pool and employees are generally expressing happiness with the move.
The ban, which came about after “French youths with a migration background” continuously caused problems at the pool and in pool bathrooms, including sexual harassment of young girls. The situation even sparked international headlines.
However, the Swiss paper 20 Minuten reported a surge in season ticket sales after the ban was put in place.
“It went very well. Citizens have rediscovered the bathing establishment with the peace and quiet that comes with it,“ said Lionel Maître, the municipal councilor for tourism and leisure in Porrentruy. “We have seen an increase in season ticket sales as citizens have finally regained the long-awaited sense of security. There have been no problems and no new bathing bans since then.”
Maître said that it had become increasingly noticeable that the perpetrators had Arabic names.
Apollo News also reported that the need for security has suddenly disappeared since the ban on foreigners.
“People were climbing over the fence. They didn’t respect us – not even the security guards,” said Luna Lando, a lifeguard at the Porrentruy outdoor pool. She said her daily routine is now transformed.
“It’s much quieter now,” said Luna in an interview. “There’s no need for security anymore.”
“We wouldn’t have been able to come here anymore if the measures hadn’t been introduced,” Vieira da Silva Aurelie, a swimming instructor from another pool in Switzerland, told German newspaper Welt.
According to Welt, there were repeated thefts at the location, women were whistled at, and boys and men touched girls inappropriately. One mother stated she had forbidden her daughter from visiting the pool due to safety fears.
Before the ban, the pool itself had already issued 20 “house bans” on specific individuals from entering the pool area, but this proved insufficient to keep the peace. The problem? The pool is located only a few kilometers from the French border and the city of Belfort. Although the town itself is described as a classic Swiss village, complete with rolling hills filled with grazing cows, the suburbs of Belfort feature troubled foreign youth who consistently cause problems in the neighboring Swiss village.
One 17-year-old student, Alexi, told Bild it is now quiet and thefts have ended.
“It’s better this way. Sometimes we Swiss couldn’t get in at all. Now, it’s quieter, you can swim and there are no more thefts, it couldn’t go on like this, that we Swiss couldn’t go into our own swimming pool anymore,” he said.
A 68-year-old pensioner, Chantalle, agreed, saying: “There were a lot of problems with 15-year-olds that caused stress. The police were there almost every day.“
Foreigners can still enter the pool, but only if they have a work permit in Switzerland or if they are guests at a local hotel that provides pool cards to its guests. However, they have to pay double the price as Swiss citizens, which also serves to restrict the number of foreign guests.
Although the ban targets all foreigners, Bild indicates the true target was the French youths who ruined the peaceful atmosphere at the pool and participated in various crimes.
A 51-year-old teacher, Melanie (51), told Bild: “The problem is that people are simply afraid of large groups that don’t follow the rules in the swimming pool. They come from the suburbs of Belfort in France. These are people who cause problems there, too. Of course, that’s a shame for everyone else who can’t get in anymore, who aren’t criminals.“
However, a cleaning specialist, 38-year-old Said, who has a migrant background, said: “This discriminates against our families. They’re stereotyping all the French now. This is a minority that has sometimes made a bit of a splash here. That’s not good. I’ve been here a lot, and I’ve never experienced much stress here.“
One Swiss woman, Marie, said she did not like the ban. “I go to the swimming pool every day and regret the decision. I saw a lot of French people here and never noticed any problems. I think the decision was made because it was often very crowded here. Maybe too crowded. But you shouldn’t solve this problem like that,” she told Bild.
However, the police in Porrentruy tell a different story, telling Bild that since the start of the season in mid-May, they have been called to the pool several times, including in instances where they had to come “sometimes two or three times an hour.”
There were no criminal complaints ever recorded, only oral complaints. But since the ban came into place, the police have not been called once, although it has only been in place for a short time.
The police would not comment on allegations from the community that French migrant youth were harassing girls. “We’re not allowed to talk about it.” He told the reporter that the media attention to the subject had grown too large, and there were efforts to “muzzle the community.”
Could this type of ban work elsewhere?
The reality is that German newspapers are so interested in this swimming ban due to the crisis at German swimming pools, which have seen young girls sexually assaulted and harassed in large numbers over the years. In addition, thefts, assaults, and general disorder have been prevalent, as Remix News has reported numerous times.
However, while some swimming pools with the unique issue seen in Porrentruy could implement such a ban on foreigners, the widespread issue seen in Germany will not vanish with such a ban. This is due to the fact that the crime and harassment problem presented by foreigners is coming from those who live in the cities and towns already, not from outsiders.
In many cases, these are youths born to foreign parents, and many of them already have German citizenship.
However, an end to the problems involving swimming pools would mean fewer security staff are required, which would lower ticket prices and contribute to a peaceful and relaxed atmosphere within swimming pools. In addition, the appearance of police crisis teams at swimming pools, such as seen in Berlin, would also disappear. Police would then be freed up to handle crime in other areas of the cities of Germany.
Only fundamental changes at the federal level in regards to immigration and crime enforcement will make European swimming pools peaceful and family-friendly places once again.
EU Rolls Out Toughest Oil Sanctions Yet On Russia In 18th Round
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Brent crude futures rose earlier after the European Union approved its 18th round of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. However, with a multi-year track record of Western sanctions—and repeated predictions by their leaders that Moscow would collapse due to lost oil revenue—the question now is: What makes this package so different this time around?
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas revealed the new sanctions package on Russia in a post on X, describing it as “one of the strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date.”
According to Reuters, the new sanctions package will lower the G7’s price cap for purchasing Russian crude oil to $47.60 per barrel. The current cap is $60, making this a significant discount. Bloomberg reported that the new cap will range between $45 and $50, and will be automatically revised twice a year based on market prices.
The sanctions package didn’t stop with a revision to the crude oil price cap—in fact, it’s broader, targeting everything from Russia’s shadow tanker fleet to the Nord Stream pipeline to refineries in India.
Here are the key highlights from the new sanctions package, as outlined in a series of posts by Kaja Kallas on X:
We’re cutting the Kremlin’s war budget further, going after 105 more shadow fleet ships, their enablers, and limiting Russian banks’ access to funding.
Nord Stream pipelines will be banned.
A lower oil price cap.
We are putting more pressure on Russia’s military industry, Chinese banks that enables sanctions evasion, and blocking tech exports used in drones.
For the first time, we’re designating a flag registry and the biggest Rosneft refinery in India.
The 18th round of sanctions comes as Russia has continued to sell most of its crude oil and petroleum products at prices above the previous cap, relying on a vast shadow fleet of tankers operating worldwide. Brussels has tried 17 times to bring Moscow to its knees—yet Europeans insist this time will be different...
In markets, Brent crude rose modestly on the news, climbing above the $70-per-barrel mark.
Separately, President Trump has threatened Russia with secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue trading with Moscow, aiming to force President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Russia’s grinding three-year invasion of Ukraine.
END
EU/CHINA RUSSIA
The EU Depends On China & Russia For Rare Earths
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Almost half of the European Union’s imports of rare earths came from China last year, according to the latest data from the European Union’s statistical office (Eurostat).
In order to reduce dependence on China and other individual countries, the EU passed the Critical Raw Materials Act 2024.
The aim is to extract 10 percent of rare earths in the EU itself and cover 15 percent of demand from recycling.
In addition, no single third country is to cover more than 65 percent of demand.
The 17 metals of the so-called rare earths are used in many of today’s key technologies.
Terbium is essential for the production of permanent magnets, important for wind turbine generators and electric vehicle motors. The rare earths cerium and lanthanum are also needed in the context of electromobility, for example, as components of catalytic converters as well as in hybrid vehicles’ batteries. Meanwhile, europium and yttrium are essential components of LED lamps and smartphone displays.
The rarity of these elements is based on the fact that they occur in the form of oxides in a variety of rocks, but their concentrated occurrence in commercially exploitable deposits is rather rare.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /IRAN/HEZBOLLAH/SYRIA
SUMMARY UPDATE (THURSDAY EVENTS)
ISRAEL VS IRAN/
Europeans are warning Iran of sanctions unless progress on nuclear talks
(Reuters)
Europeans warn Iran of UN sanctions unless concrete progress on nuclear talks
France, Britain and Germany tell Iran that they want it to resume diplomacy immediately over its nuclear program, warning that if no concrete steps are taken by the end of the summer they will restore UN sanctions.
The foreign ministers of the so-called E3, along with the European Union’s foreign policy chief, held their first call with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi since Israel and the United States carried out air strikes in mid-June on Iran’s nuclear program.
Speaking after the call, a French diplomatic source says the ministers had called on Iran to resume diplomatic efforts immediately to reach a “verifiable and lasting” nuclear deal.
The three countries, along with China and Russia, are the remaining parties to a 2015 deal with Iran that lifted sanctions on the country in return for restrictions on its nuclear program.
A UN Security Council resolution which enshrines the deal expires on October 18 and under its terms U.N. sanctions can be re-imposed beforehand. The process would take about 30 days.
The Europeans have repeatedly warned that unless there is a new nuclear accord they will launch the “snapback mechanism”, which would restore all previous U.N. sanctions on Iran if it is found to be in violation of the agreement’s terms.
“The ministers also reiterated their determination to use the so-called ‘snapback’ mechanism in the absence of concrete progress toward such an agreement by the end of the summer,” the diplomatic source says.
The source does not elaborate what concrete progress would entail.
Since the air strikes, inspectors from the UN atomic watchdog have left Iran. While Iran has suggested it is open to diplomacy, there are no indications a sixth round of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran will resume imminently.
Diplomats say that even if they were to resume talks, reaching a comprehensive accord before the end of August – the final deadline the Europeans have given – seems unrealistic, especially without inspectors on the ground to assess Iran’s remaining nuclear programme.
Two European diplomats said they hoped to coordinate strategy with the United States in the coming days with a view to possibly holding talks with Iran soon.
END
Iran fears anew Syria to Azerbaijan axis leaving them out
Syria and Azerbaijan pledged to deepen ties, including a landmark Azerbaijani gas export deal via Turkey.
Iranian media warned of a potential redeployment of Syrian fighters into the Caucasus, heightening regional tensions.
Reports of Israeli-Syrian contacts in Baku added to Tehran’s suspicion of an anti-Iran alignment involving Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel.
Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s visit to Baku last weekend highlighted a dramatic shift in regional alliances, prompting a mix of concern, suspicion, and strategic recalculation across Iranian media.
Official statements following Sharaa’s meeting with President Ilham Aliyev emphasized a new era in Syrian-Azerbaijani relations. Both leaders acknowledged past stagnation, directly blaming ousted President Bashar al-Assad’s “unfriendly policy” and pledged to restore and deepen cooperation.
Notably, the visit yielded a deal to export Azerbaijani gas to Syria via Turkey, with officials hailing the agreement as a needed remedy for Syria’s chronic energy crisis.
Meanwhile, various outlets, including Israeli media, claimed that Syrian and Israeli officials met on the sidelines of the trip. It’s unclear whether Sharaa attended the meeting, but the mere occurrence of such a meeting — facilitated by Azerbaijan, Israel’s key ally in the region — has further fueled concerns in Tehran.
Sharaa, a former insurgent known under the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, joined forces with Turkish-backed rebels and, in December 2024, led his Hayat Tahrir al?Sham (HTS) faction in a lightning offensive that ultimately toppled the Iran? and Russia?backed Assad government.
Security Challenges
A shared concern in Iranian media is what is seen as a shifting militant footprint from the Syrian battlefield to the Caucasus — right on Iran’s doorstep.
Arman-e Melli, a pro-reform newspaper, argued that one aspect of the budding relationship between Damascus and Baku will involve the transfer of Syria-based fighters through Turkey into bases in Azerbaijan — a potential development it described as a “mission” for Sharaa.
It is speculated that their presence is meant to destabilize areas along the borders of Iran and Russia and to carry out operations targeting the broader axis of China, Russia, and Iran.
The conservative newspaper Farhikhtegan struck a similar tone, arguing that Sharaa sees the redeployment of his fighters to meet a US demand to expel foreign fighters from Syria. Under such a plan, the paper said, Azerbaijan would emerge as a strategic hub; either a staging ground for further infiltration into the Caucasus and Russia or a site for settlement in areas such as Karabakh.
A ‘Message’ To Iran
Israel’s i24NEWS network, citing an unnamed Syrian source, claimed that Israel and the United States had made a decision for Baku to host a meeting between Israeli and Syrian officials to “send a message to Iran.”
Referencing the report, Iran’s state broadcaster-run Jam-e Jam newspaper charged that given Baku’s track record of alleged involvement in anti-Iranian operations over the years, and suspicions about its cooperation with Israel during last month’s war, this could well be taken as “clear evidence” that some neighboring countries are working with Israel against Iran.
Jam-e Jam specifically named Azerbaijan and its allies, Turkey and Israel, as the countries involved in “shaping new dynamics that work against Iran’s interests.”
The paper argued that ultimately Iran will need to safeguard its national interests with both diplomatic and security savvy, including strengthening ties with neighbors such as Armenia and Russia, and taking a firm stand against “Baku’s provocations.”
Tehran has watched with growing concern as Azerbaijan forges ever?closer links with Israel.
In recent years, the partnership has significantly expanded, highlighted by deepening defense collaboration and Baku’s decision to open an embassy in Tel Aviv in 2023 — developments that have only heightened Iranian mistrust.
Iran’s president, Masud Pezeshkian, last month pressed Aliyev to “investigate and verify” reports that Israeli drones, including micro-drones, had crossed into Iranian airspace through Azerbaijani territory during the 12-day war that ended in a ceasefire on June 24.
Aliyev rejected the allegations, affirming that his government would never permit Azerbaijani territory to be used against Iran.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Netanyahu ‘Regrets’ Deadly Attack On Gaza Church After Terse Trump Call
Thursday, Jul 17, 2025 – 04:50 PM
Thursday witnessed another Israeli strike on a church in Gaza, which killed three people and injured at least six others. Among the wounded was the parish priest.
Hundreds of Palestinians were sheltering at Holy Family Catholic Church in Gaza City when the church roof was hit around 10:10am local time, church officials describe. Shrapnel and debris came down through the roof and went flying, killing and wounding Christians inside.
While most circulating reports say an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tank directly fired on the church, a spokesman for the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem initially said it was unclear whether the munition was launched from an airplane or a tank. The neighborhood and area were coming under heavy Israeli gunfire at the time.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who oversees the church, clarified in a statement to Vatican News, “What we know for sure is that a tank, the IDF says by mistake, but we are not sure about this, they hit the Church directly, the Church of the Holy Family, the Latin Church.”
He indicated that more victims might succumb to their injuries: “There are four people seriously wounded, among these four, two are in very dramatic conditions and their lives are in serious danger,” Pizzaballa said.
Pope Leo XIV has called for “an immediate cease-fire” in Gaza in a statement. His predecessor, Pope Francis, was known to have personally phoned Holy Family Catholic Church on a nightly basis to see how the community was faring, even when he was in the hospital.
Based on photos it looks like the Israeli tank operators were aiming for the cross, but missed hitting the roof leading to the debris to rain down and crush those sheltering inside.
There is no reason for an Israeli tank shell to be aimed this high.
Dozens of others had been killed in the Gaza City area on Thursday. Netanyahu’s office issued a statement specifically on the church attack, saying: “Israel deeply regrets that a stray ammunition hit Gaza’s Holy Family Church. Every innocent life lost is a tragedy. We share the grief of the families and the faithful.”
Israel is calling it a ‘mistake’ – but this reportedly came only after President Trump phoned the Israeli Prime Minister and put pressure on him, according to Times of Israel and the NY Times:
President Trump called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to express “not a positive reaction” to the attack on the church, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said at a news briefing.
This comes after the October 2023 IDF attack on the Church of Saint Porphyrius, an ancient Orthodox church in Gaza City, which resulted in the deaths of at least 18 Palestinian Christian civilians.
Sources close to the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem told The Pillar that they believe the Israeli bombing of the Catholic Church in Gaza may have been retaliation for the meeting of Christian leaders in Taybeh, the Christian West Bank town that's been under settler attack. pic.twitter.com/JBIG8hao3j
In the early 20th century, many villages and cities across what is now Israel and Palestinian territories were actually majority Christian (Bethlehem and Ramallah being prime examples), or at least had very sizeable Christian minorities. For example Jerusalem at one point was up to one-third Christian in identity. This goes back to Byzantine times, and the Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem remains a significant landholder in Israel.
Steady migration out of the region, as well as persecution by both Jewish and Muslim fanatics, and at times the Israeli government – has led Christian numbers to steadily decline. One regional Middle East Christian website, for example, summarizes, “historically a Christian town, Ramallah has seen mass migration to the West as a result of Israeli occupation. It retains a significant Christian minority, determined to maintain a Christian presence in the land of their ancestors.”
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Six people said killed, others wounded in shootings near Gaza aid sites
Media outlets in Gaza report that six people were killed by gunfire near a humanitarian aid distribution center operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation in northwestern Rafah, in the south of the Strip.
Separately, Al-Awda Hospital says that it had received four people who were wounded by gunfire at another distribution center along the Netzarim corridor in central Gaza.
The IDF has yet to issue a response.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF confirms deaths of two Hamas gov’t officials, legal head, PIJ financier
Shahin, Tzartzur, and al-’Aoul were involved in Hamas’ security and governance over the Gazan population, and Jibain played a central role in the transfer of funds to the West Bank PIJ.
PALESTINIANS ATTEND the funeral of senior Hamas deputy military commander Marwan Issa.(photo credit: REUTERS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 18, 2025 16:28Updated: JULY 18, 2025 16:32
The IDF and Shin Bet confirmed the deaths of four terrorists who were killed over the course of this past week in Gaza on Friday.
The terrorists were named as Barhoum Shahin, the Head of the Western Gaza District in the General Security Apparatus; Asham Tzartzur, the Head of Hamas’ Government Emergency Committee in eastern Gaza; Faraj al-’Aoul, the head of Hamas’ Legal Bureau; and Raed Khaled Hassan Jibain, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative and a central figure in the transfer of funds to the PIJ in the West Bank.
Shahin, Tzartzur, and al-’Aoul were involved in Hamas’ security and governance over the Gazan population, as well as assisting the organization’s fighters while working to further repress and incite violence within the Gaza Strip.
“The General Security Apparatus is a secretive and significant mechanism in the Hamas terrorist organization, which is responsible for exposing ‘collaborators’ and securing Hamas’ senior officials and its assets in the Gaza Strip and outside of it,” the IDF explained.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. January 30, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist
Jibain was killed on Sunday. He was imprisoned in Israel between 2006 and 2015 for his involvement in terrorist activities as a member of PIJ. He served as the main financial transfer conduit for the PIJ in the West Bank.
Israel airstrike hits vicinity of Syria’s Sweida, Syrian state news agency says
Despite reports indicating the strike was carried out by Israel, Channel 12 reported that the Israeli military had not conducted the strikes.
SMOKE RISES as Syrian troops enter the predominantly Druze city of Sweida on Tuesday. The Druze community in Syria is not only a historical ally of Israel, but it also sits on the front line between order and tribal disintegration, states the writer(photo credit: Karam al-Masri/Reuters)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 17, 2025 23:24Updated: JULY 18, 2025 00:02
Israel carried out an airstrike in the vicinity of Syria’s Sweida, Syrian state news agency SANA said on Thursday.
Syrian media reports claimed that the strikes targeted military positions of Bedouin tribes, according to Channel 12.
The Bedouin tribes reportedly took over a village in Sweida.
Despite reports indicating the strike was carried out by Israel, Channel 12 reported that the Israeli military had not conducted the strikes.
Druze residents protest near the Israeli-Syrian border fence in solidarity with their community in Syria, July 16, 2025. (credit: MICHAEL GILADI/FLASH90)
Syrian tribes from Manbij, Idlib and the north are reportedly recruiting fighters to support the tribal forces in Sweida, Maariv reported, citing Arab networks. To deal with the alleged threat, the Syrian army has reportedly begun setting up checkpoints on the road from Damascus to Sweida in an attempt to prevent militia fighters from reaching the area.
Israel’s recent strikes in Syria
On Wednesday, Israel launched airstrikes in Damascus, while also hitting government forces in the south, demanding they withdraw and saying Israel aimed to protect Syrian Druze – part of a small but influential minority that also has followers in Lebanon and Israel.
The United States did not support recent Israeli strikes on Syria, the State Department said on Thursday, adding that Washington made clear its displeasure after tensions escalated and worked quickly to stop it.
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
maybe this is wrong! Julani sent in the army but I think they defied his orders and attacked the Druze.
Israel should be patient to see what comes of this!
(zerohedge)
Israeli Leaders Call For Syrian President’s Assassination
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Hardline and outspoken Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has called for Israel to “eliminate” Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, following the latest escalation in sectarian violence this week.
“The shocking images from Syria prove one thing: once a jihadist, always a jihadist,” Ben Gvir said in a video statement on Wednesday. “Anyone who murders, shaves mustaches, humiliates, and rapes cannot be negotiated with, and the only thing that can be done is to eliminate al-Julani,” he added, referring to the Syrian leader’s previous nom de guerre, Mohammad al-Jolani.
“I love the Druze citizens in the State of Israel, and I embrace them warmly, and I tell them: we must cut off the head of the snake,” Ben Gvir added, essentially calling for Sharaa’s assassination.
Israel has been using the plight of the persecuted Druze minority in southern Syria as a pretext for expanding its military presence far beyond the occupied Golan Heights.
Critics have accused Israeli leaders of ‘divide-and-conquer’ tactics, and have even allowed thousands of Druze who lived under occupied areas (in Israel) to breach the Golan border fence and flood back into Syria.
The Syrian regime of Sharaa and his fanatical Sunni fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have stood accused of conducting entho-religious genocide, targeting Druze, Christians, and Alawites. This has been happening especially in the south this week.
Israel on Wednesday for the first time ever targeted the sprawling Syrian Defense Ministry building with airstrikes, destroying it. This is not something that had been done throughout the entirety of the Assad family’s rule.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Minister for Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli has joined Ben Gvir in calling for the overthrow of Sharaa. Chikli has called for his assassination, branding him a “terrorist” and a “brutal murderer.”
Chikli defended the stepped up Israeli attacks on Damascus, drawing comparisons between Sharaa’s government and Palestinian militant groups. “If it looks like Hamas, talks like Hamas, and acts like Hamas—then it is Hamas,” he stated.
Rather than the likes of Ben Gvir suddenly becoming concerned over human rights, something else is definitely going on here…
Despite the official pretext of “protecting Druze minorities,” the reality is strategic absorption. Israel is executing the Yinon Plan’s second phase: not just fragmentation, but territorial annexation via sectarian alliance.
But curiously, these Israeli officials were silent when throughout the Syrian proxy war which targeted Assad, the Netanyahu government was openly helping hardline jihadists, including hosting wounded FSA and Nusrah Front (AQ) fighters in Israeli hospitals.
end
SYRIA
this morning!
Syrian forces to redeploy to Sweida, spokesman says, after presidency claims Druze violated truce
Foreign Ministry says Israel will send humanitarian aid packages to Syrian Druze in Sweida *
Israel says it’s allowing Syrian forces to enter Sweida for 48 hours amid renewed clashes
Violence between Druze and Bedouin has renewed in the southern Syrian province despite Thursday’s announced ceasefire; Israel sending humanitarian aid over the border
Fighters from Bedouin tribes gather near a burning building in al-Mazraa village, in Syria’s southern Sweida governorate, as clashes with Druze gunmen continue on July 18, 2025 (OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
Israel said Friday it was allowing Syrian security forces to enter the Sweida Governorate for 48 hours, citing the ongoing unrest in southern Syria.
“In light of the ongoing instability in southwest Syria, Israel has agreed to allow limited entry of the [Syrian] internal security forces into Sweida district for the next 48 hours,” an official who declined to be named told reporters.
Deadly violence has plagued Sweida province since Sunday, as Druze fighters clashed with Sunni Bedouin tribes, who were later joined by government forces. The Syrian Network for Human Rights monitoring group said it had documented 254 dead in four days of fighting, among them medical personnel, women, and children.
Israel’s own Druze community demanded that Jerusalem act to protect their brethren across the border, as reports emerged from Sweida of regime forces killing women and boys, looting homes, and shaving Druze clerics’ mustaches. Videos also showed Druze fighters beating captured government forces and posing by their bodies.
Syrian troops withdrew from Sweida after a truce was announced on Wednesday, but clashes resumed late on Thursday between fighters from Bedouin tribes and the Druze, who are part of a religious minority in Syria that has followers in Lebanon and Israel. The clashes in parts of Sweida province continued into Friday, according to residents of Sweida and Ryan Marouf, the head of local news outlet Sweida24.
Jerusalem has said it would not allow regime military forces south of Damascus following the violence, which could be the reason the Prime Minister’s Office referred to “internal” security in its statement.
Seemingly contradicting the PMO’s comments, Syria’s interior ministry spokesperson said government forces were not preparing to deploy to Sweida, the state news agency reported. Noureddin al-Baba denied an earlier Reuters report citing an interior ministry media officer as saying security forces were preparing to redeploy there to quell the fresh fighting involving Bedouin tribes and the Druze, part of a religious minority in Syria that has followers in Lebanon and Israel.
This aerial photograph shows smoke rising above buildings in al-Mazraa village in Syria’s southern Sweida governorate as clashes between fighters from Bedouin tribes and Druze gunmen continue on July 18, 2025 (OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
This week’s clashes drew in Israel, which hit Syrian troops in Sweida and Syria’s defense ministry in airstrikes, and struck close to the presidential palace in Damascus.
Syrian troops withdrew from Sweida after the truce was announced, but clashes resumed late on Thursday between the tribal Bedouin fighters and the Druze.
Earlier on Friday, the Israeli army denied reports on the Syrian state news agency, SANA, that it had conducted additional strikes near Sweida on Thursday night.
Describing Syria’s new rulers as barely disguised jihadists, Israel has vowed to shield the area’s Druze community from attack, prodded by calls from Israel’s own Druze minority.
Its deep distrust of Syria’s new Islamist-led leadership appears to be at odds with the United States, which said it did not support recent Israeli strikes on Syria.
The US intervened to help secure the truce between government forces and Druze fighters.
Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has worked to establish warmer ties with the US, accused Israel of trying to fracture Syria and promised to protect its Druze minority.
Israel said Friday it was sending humanitarian aid to Sweida province.
Fighters from Bedouin tribes ride motorcycles along a road in al-Mazraa village in Syria’s southern Sweida governorate, as clashes with Druze gunmen continue on July 18, 2025 (OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
“In light of the recent attacks targeting the Druze community in Sweida and the severe humanitarian situation in the area, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has ordered the urgent transfer of humanitarian aid to the Druze population in the region,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
The NIS 2 million ($600,000) package includes food parcels and medical supplies, the ministry said, noting it had previously sent humanitarian aid to the Druze in Syria in March.
The head of the UN human rights office on Friday urged Syria’s interim authorities to ensure accountability and justice for what it said were credible reports of widespread rights violations during the fighting, including summary executions and kidnappings, the office said in a statement.
At least 13 people were unlawfully killed in one recorded incident on July 15 when affiliates of the interim authorities opened fire at a family gathering, the OHCHR said. Six men were summarily executed near their homes the same day.
The UN refugee agency on Friday urged all sides to allow humanitarian access, which it said had been curtailed by the violence.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel will continue to use military means to enforce its two red lines in Syria — the demilitarization of the area south of Damascus, near Israel’s border, and the protection of the country’s Druze minority there.
Fighters from Bedouin tribes gather near camouflaged vehicles along a road in al-Mazraa village leading to the predominantly Druze city of Sweida in southern Syria on July 18, 2025 (Sam HARIRI / AFP)
Netanyahu said the Damascus regime, led by Sharaa, violated both those red lines in recent days.
“It sent an army south of Damascus, into the area that should be demilitarized, and it began to massacre the Druze. We could not accept this in any way,” he said in a video statement.
The premier added that the ceasefire Sharaa announced in Sweida, which included the withdrawal of regime troops, “was achieved through force. Not through requests, not through pleas — through force.”
“We acted, and we will continue to act as necessary,” Netanyahu promised.
Israel attacked military facilities and operatives of the Syrian regime on Wednesday, demanding that regime troops withdraw from Sweida, to which they had deployed during sectarian fighting between Druze and Bedouins, which are reported to have initially broken out after a Druze vegetable vendor was assaulted by Bedouin gunmen on Sunday.
In a press conference Thursday evening, Israel Defense Forces Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin acknowledged that the IDF had been unprepared to handle the chaos on the Syrian border in recent days during the Sweida conflict.
Around 1,000 Druze crossed from Israel into Syria, and dozens of Syrian Druze entered Israel, at the time of the fighting — leading several Druze Israeli lawmakers to themselves enter Syria to call on Israeli Druze to return to Israel.
Defrin said the IDF “were not prepared for thousands of Israeli citizens who reached the border and tried to pass it,” adding, “We are learning lessons.”
Druze in Israel protest near the Israeli-Syrian border fence in solidarity with Druze in Syria, July 16, 2025. (Michael Giladi/Flash90)
Police said they arrested two Druze Israelis at the Syrian border on Thursday morning, as they tried to reenter Israeli territory with a Kalashnikov rifle. The two young men — ages 18 and 20, from the villages of Kisra and Beit Jann — crossed into Syria on Wednesday.
Police said that they patched up breaches on the Israel-Syria border and are currently working with local Druze leaders to facilitate the return of Israelis who crossed into Syria, and vice versa.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s interim government has had troubled relations with ethnic and religious minority groups since it came to power in December.
March saw massacres of more than 1,700 mostly Alawite civilians in their hub on the Mediterranean coast, with government-affiliated groups blamed for most of the killings.
Government forces also battled Druze fighters in Sweida province and near Damascus in April and May, leaving more than 100 people dead.
Israel, which is home to around 150,000 Druze, many of whom serve in the IDF, has repeatedly stated its intention to defend Syria’s Druze community.
The IDF, which has taken control of the UN-monitored demilitarized zone on the Golan Heights and conducted hundreds of strikes on military targets in Syria, also says it will not allow any Syrian military presence in the south.
Despite having initiated contact with a first face-to-face meeting in Azerbaijan earlier this month, Israel remains extremely wary of Syria’s new rulers, including Sharaa, whose Hayat Tahrir al-Sham movement was once linked to al-Qaeda.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/NATO
NATO Top Commander: Patriots Must Move From European Allies To Kyiv ‘As Quickly As Possible’
Thursday, Jul 17, 2025 – 10:10 PM
NATO’s top military commander, US Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, announced Thursday that efforts are underway to expedite the delivery of additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, amid nightly waves of drone and missile attacks which are regularly in the hundreds.
“We’re working closely with the Germans on transferring the Patriots,” Grynkewich said during a major defense conference in Wiesbaden, Germany happening this week. “The directive I’ve received is to act as swiftly as possible.”
Grynkewich emphasized that timing and logistics are key concerns in getting the systems delivered to Ukraine. “As Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointed out, existing systems in Europe can be deployed faster than those coming off production lines,” he explained. “Those new units can then replace the ones sent to Ukraine.”
Last year controversy was unleashed among European allies when NATO command leaned hard on countries like Spain and Greece to give up their Patriot systems for the cause of Ukraine – and Greece immediately balked, given it sees itself as under constant threat from Turkey.
Grynkewich did admit that it’s still unclear how many Patriot batteries can be made available. “There’s more to come -we’re moving as fast as we can,” the commander added.
President Donald Trump has lately expressed disgust at the record numbers of suicide drones striking Ukrainian cities. While he has not approved long-range offensive weapons for Kiev, he has indicated readiness to ramp up anti-air defense systems.
On Tuesday, Trump did confirm that some Patriots sourced from Germany were already en route to Ukraine.
Following a meeting with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earlier in the week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius signaled that a final decision on sending two additional US Patriot systems to Ukraine could be reached within days or weeks. Earlier in the conflict Berlin had already supplied three of its Patriot batteries to the Ukrainians.
The Raytheon-made system is seen by Ukraine’s military as the most vital system in its arsenal to protect against ongoing Russian aerial attacks.
In another part of Grynkewich speech, he highlighted the possibility of a joint China-Russia attack meant to bog down European forces, as China takes Taiwan:
The U.S.-led NATO alliance must prepare for the possibility that Russia and China could launch wars in Europe and the Pacific simultaneously, with 2027 being a potential flashpoint year, the top American commander in Europe said Thursday.
“We’re going to need every bit of kit and equipment and munitions that we can in order to beat that,” Grynkewich said. If China’s President Xi Jinping makes a move on Taiwan, he likely would coordinate such an attack with Russian President Vladimir Putin, opening the possibility of a global conflict, he said. “That, to me, means that both of these things could happen together,” said Grynkewich, who also serves as NATO supreme allied commander.
But there’s an obvious contradiction present in a speech where he’s on the one hand saying the West needs to get Ukraine all the defensive systems it needs as fast as possible, and on the other the West must be prepared for conflict with both China and Russia within a few short years.
Despite the glaring policy contradictions, in the end, Raytheon and the major defense contractors will win again.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
ROBERT H
A warning if there ever was one
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, said this today: “Moscow considers itself entitled to use weapons against military facilities of countries that allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russia with its weapons.”
This means that it is a question mark as to whether Russia waits for the next deep strikes on their soil with Western missiles or takes matters into their own hands to make an example. While One expects they will wait for the 1st strike using such weapons it is just as likely that based on factual information of weapons supply targets will be identified and observed long before missiles like Oreshnik fly. 9 minutes to Britain , 8 minutes to Paris and 5 minutes to Germany.
Remembering that each Oreshnik carries 6 warheads that cannot be stopped this is a pointless game of chance. Russia believes in measuring a response. With countries like Germany within reach of Iskanders in mere minutes, it is a time to be more careful as to proximity to military targets.
Yesterday, Putin was informed of a major new breakthrough in hypersonic weapons that will no doubt be tested soon enough. It was sufficient to make weapons under Mach 10 old news .
The day will soon arrive that such new weapons will make strikes in real time. When this technology becomes available in battlefield conditions the game becomes more sophisticated and deadly. While armchair commanders may find that there is no time to leave the chair. Whereas the public can ask why. As I wrote and explained last year the demonstration of Oreshnik forever changed the game. And nukes became old age weapons. Today the use of such devices are obsolete and those parties clinging to such weapons are dinosaurs in an age where technology rules.
This is also true in the CHIP race where Russia and China have photonic chips leapfrogging ASML. These chips do not create heat. Therefore the server farms that require great power are also obsolete. Since you will be able to operate a server farm at a fraction of the what costs now.
Technology rules and not political ambitions. With this comes the revolution in monetary economics where old style banking is already a dinosaur. Instant blockchain technology is coming that will not be the domain of governments but that of people on a decentralized basis. With this will come the death of Central Banks . Countries will be forced to make room for visible financial transactions. This will render “off balance sheet “ transactions far fewer as debt creation will see visible limits.
The times are changing.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
ROBERT H
1) While You Were Distracted: Trump’s GENIUS Act CBDC Will Allow Government to Punish Vaccine Mandate Refusers by Freezing Bank Accounts
UK: golf champ Charley Hull collapses TWICE on course at Evian Championship; IT: Simone Cristicchi cancels show due to Bell’s palsy; wrestler John Littell goes into cardiac arrest post-match
‘Jaws’ star Richard Dreyfuss forced to skip anticipated fan event due to severe diagnosis
July 13, 2025
On Friday, the “Jaws” star, 77, took to social media to share a message with his fans ahead of SharkCon in Tampa, Florida, and express his disappointment over the diagnosis. ‘Hello fellow cons,” Dreyfuss said in a video posted to SharkCon’s Instagram account. “I am very, very sorry to tell you that I’ve been diagnosed with, viral, er…What is it?” “Bronchitis,” Dreyfuss’ wife, Svetlana Erokhin, answered off-camera.
Researcher’s Note – Reports in December 2021 indicated that Richard Dreyfuss and his “The Soap Myth” production required patrons to be fully “vaccinated” against COVID-19 or present a recent negative PCR test to attend. This suggests that Dreyfuss is supportive of “vaccination” efforts. However, no sources found explicitly state whether Dreyfuss personally received the COVID-19 “vaccine.”
Darius Rucker Apologizes, Issues Full Refunds After Cutting Show Short
July 14, 2025
Darius Rucker [59] apologized in a new statement to fans after cutting a show short because of vocal issues. The “Beers And Sunshine” artist admitted it’s the first time he’s ever lost his voice in his decades-long career. Rucker was set to take the stage on Saturday (July 12) in Atlantic City, New Jersey. He said in a statement shared on his Instagram story on Sunday (July 13): “Thank you so much for coming out Saturday night. I feel awful and I ‘m so sorry — I have never lost my voice in all my years of performing.”
Researcher’s Note – Eric Church, Ashley McBryde + Darius Rucker Push for COVID-19 Vaccinations [sic] in New PSA: Link
Country Legend Ray Stevens Survives Heart Attack, Out of Surgery Following Canceled Shows
July 9, 2025
Continuing to entertain fans even at 86 years old, Ray Stevens recently canceled a string of performances after suffering a mild heart attack. Fortunately, the “Everything is Beautiful” crooner recently took a major step toward recovery. Following a successful heart surgery Monday (July 7) morning, Ray Stevens has been discharged from intensive care and is beginning to walk the halls as therapy with a nurse’s assistance, according to a post shared to his official Instagram account Wednesday (July 9.) Stevens’ team initially shared the news to social media Tuesday (July 8.) After complaining of chest pain last Friday (July 4), the Grammy-winning country artist was admitted to a Nashville hospital. Following a heart catheterization procedure, doctors determined that Stevens had suffered a mild heart attack. He successfully underwent “minimally invasive heart surgery” three days later. Understandably, Ray Stevens has canceled all live performances through July 2025 as he recovers. The future of any dates beyond that is currently unclear.
Researcher’s Note – Country Music Hall of Fame member Ray Stevens has many music industry friends who died from COVID-19. And he has a message. “You have to take it seriously,” he stated. “The vaccinations [sic] … do work.” Stevens, 82, is a singer and piano player most known for comedy hits including “Mississippi Squirrel Revival” and “The Streak” as well as his ballad “Everything Is Beautiful.” But Stevens, who recently re-opened his Nashville dinner theater Ray Stevens CabaRay Showroom and will release a new album on Oct. 8, isn’t laughing about the vaccine [sic] controversy or the impact the virus continues to have on the entertainment community. “Why would anyone politicize getting the vaccine [sic]?” asked Stevens, who proudly declared he’s had two vaccines [sic] and will receive the booster [sic] as soon as it is available. “There ain’t nothing political about vaccines [sic]. It’s not political to me. I got up this morning and ate breakfast. Is that political?”: Link
Longtime independent wrestling veteran Josh Littell [51], better known to fans as Sir Samurai, is lucky to be alive — and by his own account, it’s a miracle he survived at all. The frightening incident occurred just two months ago following a match at the Pinole Public Library in California. Littell, who headlined the April 26 event, appeared fine immediately after the bout. But moments later, tragedy struck. “We were the main event,” Littell told KCRA 3 NBC in Sacramento. “We wrestled the match, and it was fine, all things considered. Then I collapsed in the locker room. Evidently, my heart stopped, and I fell to the floor. Officially, I wasdead. No nurse or doctor said anything different than, ‘You died on Saturday.’” Fortunately, fate intervened in the form of fellow wrestler Alex Bell, who also happens to be a trained EMT. Bell jumped into action without hesitation. “I started compressions, asked someone to get an AED,” Bell recalled. “The ambulance was already on the way. Honestly, my first thought was, ‘This isn’t going to work.’ I’ve done CPR before — it’s never worked.” Littell was clinically dead for three to four minutes. He described the surreal experience of being pulled back from the brink. Doctors still don’t know what caused the cardiac arrest, but as a precaution, Littell now has a defibrillator implanted in his chest. A month after the scare, Sir Samurai made one final appearance in the ring — not to wrestle, but to formally announce his retirement, closing the chapter on a career that has spanned over two decades and earned him the respect of wrestlers and fans across the West Coast indie scene.
Canadian Prog Rock Icon Announces Terminal Cancer Diagnosis
July 13, 2025
Canadian rock band Saga’s frontman Michael Sadler revealed his terminalcancerdiagnosis and the emotional toll it’s taken on his life. In a Facebook post shared on Saturday, July 12, Sadler, 64, opened up about the devastating impact of his diagnosis, which came just before he was about to board a cruise in April. “I learned in April, just before boarding a cruise, that my cancer is incurable and untreatable,” Sadler revealed. The singer also revealed the heartbreak of losing his sister to cancer on July 1, while his brother continues to fight Leukemia. Due to Sadler’s health, Saga has paused all live performances for the time being.
Yungblud Postpones Show After Tonsillitis Diagnosis — but Leaves Money at Bar for Fans to Enjoy: ‘Hate Letting You Down’
July 11, 2025
Yungblud is postponing his show for health reasons — but leaving fans with a gift. On Thursday, July 10, the singer-songwriter, 27, revealed that he’s had to postpone his show in Liverpool, England, due to suffering from tonsillitis. Making the announcement on his Instagram Stories, Yungblud — born Dominic Richard Harrison — shared he wouldn’t be able to make his Liverpool gig, where he was due to perform at The Dome on Friday, July 11. “My f—ing tonsillitis still hasn’t cleared up so I’m getting steroid treatment,” he wrote on his Instagram Stories. “I have plans to get the f—ers out as they’re a weak point for me but I need to find some time as obviously we’ve been non stop.”
Researcher’s Note – Yungblud said he would encourage people to get vaccinated [sic] against coronavirus or take other precautions before attending live shows: Link
Earlier this evening (July 27), the Doncaster rocker updated fans with information regarding entry into the shows on the tour. One of the following criteria will be accepted in order to gain entry to the shows:
Proof of a negative NHS COVID-19 lateral flow test, taken within 24 hours of entry Proof of full COVID-19 vaccination [sic], both doses received at least 14 days before entry
Proof of natural immunity based upon a positive PCR test, taken within 180 days of the show (including 10-days self-isolation following the result): Link
Charley Hull Suffers Sudden Illness in France: Withdraws from Evian Championship
July 10, 2025
There was fear during the first round of the Evian Championship in France: English golfer Charley Hull has withdrawn from the tournament after collapsingtwice due to a virus. According to organizers, Hull began to feel unwell on the fourth hole. After initially collapsing, she received medical attention, got up, and managed to tee off. Moments later, however, she collapsedagain. Emergency services arrived promptly, and the proette was carried on a stretcher off the course at the Evian Resort Golf Club, host of the fourth women’s Major of the season. Medical tests have confirmed the presence of a virus, but fortunately the 29-year-old’s condition is stable. Hull, who started her round on the 10th hole, was one under par after 12 holes before suffering an illness.
Cristicchi, sudden illness and concert canceled: “I was diagnosed with facial paralysis”
July 10, 2025
Simone Cristicchi [48] has Bell’s palsy. The singer-songwriter was forced to cancel the concert scheduled for Saturday, July 12th, in Valle d’Aosta due to a suddenhealth issue. Cristicchi himself announced the news on his Instagram profile. “It is with great regret that I must announce that due to a suddenhealth problem, I will be forced to cancel the concert scheduled for July 12th at Forte di Bard, as part of the Aostaclassica festival,” he wrote, explaining: “I have been diagnosed with Bell’s palsy (a form of facial nerve paralysis, ed.), a temporary condition that requires rest and attention,” the Roman singer-songwriter concluded.
LATEST NEWSCBS to cancel ‘Late show with Stephen Colbert’ citing ‘financial decision’CBS to cancel the “Late Show with Stephen Colbert” after the 2025–2026 television season, ending a decades-long era that began when the network poached David Letterman from NBC back in 1993. The network claims it’s a “financial decision,” but many are questioning what’s really going on behind the scenes. According to CBS executives, Colbert is “irreplaceable,” and the entire “Late …READ MOREFederal Court Hands Red State Massive Victory After Heated Curriculum ShowdownA federal appeals court issued a ruling allowing Arkansas to enforce its ban on teaching critical race theory (CRT) in public school classrooms. The decision, which was issued on Wednesday, overturned a previous preliminary injunction that had temporarily blocked the law’s implementation. The ban has been challenged by students and teachers who argue it violates their rights.A three-judge panel rejected claims that …READ MORECory Booker Sparks Chaos as Dems Storm Out of Heated HearingNew Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (D), a potential 2028 presidential hopeful, took a prominent role in a Democratic protest at Thursday’s Judiciary Committee hearing. The session focused on Emil Bove, a federal judicial nominee from the Trump administration, whose confirmation has sparked sharp partisan disagreement.The confrontation intensified when Booker pressed the committee to address whistleblower complaints made by former Justice Department …READ MOREDem Socialist Torched Over Eye-Opening Viral Video AdmissionZohran Mamdani, the New York City Democratic socialist mayoral candidate, is facing intense online criticism after a resurfaced video showed him acknowledging that he was able to take time off work because his parents were willing to financially support him. The remarks, which emerged amid his campaign focused on working-class issues, have sparked accusations of hypocrisy and raised questions about his …READ MOREMSNBC Host Corners Top Dem With Stunning On-Air QuestionMSNBC host Joe Scarborough pressed Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) on-air this week about why congressional Democrats did not seek the release of Jeffrey Epstein’s files during the years they controlled the Department of Justice (DOJ) under former President Joe Biden. The exchange has sparked renewed attention to the timeline of investigations and transparency surrounding Epstein’s connections.The questioning came during an appearance …READ MORE
LATEST NEWSMassie Sparks Bipartisan House Revolt With Bombshell Power MoveRep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is leading a bipartisan effort in Congress to force the public release of all government files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Through a discharge petition introduced this week, Massie aims to bypass House leadership and bring his bill, the Epstein Files Transparency Act (EFTA), directly to the floor for a vote.The Kentucky congressman announced the move Tuesday on …READ MOREDemocratic Rep. Tries to Silence Witness Accusing Party of Fueling Violence Against ICERep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) abruptly halted Michael Howell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday as he described how inflammatory rhetoric from Democratic politicians has allegedly contributed to violent attacks on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.Howell, a Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Center, delivered a passionate account of the growing threats and violence facing ICE agents during …READ MORERed State Launches Sweeping Crackdown After Disturbing DiscoveryTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has initiated an extensive investigation targeting over 100 individuals suspected of illegally voting as noncitizens in the 2020 and 2022 election cycles. Authorities allege that these suspects cast more than 200 ballots across multiple Texas counties.“Illegal aliens and foreign nationals must not be allowed to influence Texas elections by casting illegal ballots with impunity. I will …READ MOREHunter Biden Stuns With Blistering 2024 Truth BombHunter Biden is placing the blame for President Trump’s 2024 victory not on Republicans or outside forces—but squarely on Democrats who, he says, fractured their own coalition and squandered the advantage of incumbency.In a candid interview on former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison’s new podcast, At Our Table, Biden said the party failed to rally behind his father when it mattered …READ MOREObama-Era AG Under Fire Over Jaw-Dropping ICE RemarkJoyce Vance, former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama and current MSNBC legal analyst, faced backlash after suggesting on air that masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents could be mistaken for kidnappers by civilians—potentially triggering lawful self-defense. She made the remarks during a recent appearance on MSNBC’s “Velshi,” where she discussed undercover law enforcement tactics. Vance, who also teaches …READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Transparency
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 12:10 PM
By Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Yesterday, G-20 finance ministers congregated in South Africa, though several delegates were noticeably absent, like Scott Bessent from the US. Bessent, of course, wasn’t playing hooky alone, as other truants included counterparts from Argentina, Australia, and France. That said, Bessent’s empty seat garnered special attention as the United States is not only the world’s largest economy, but is the source of global trade turmoil as Trump issues trade letters left and right.
Given the absence of communique from the G20 (at the time of writing), markets have turned their attention elsewhere, like economic data. Retail sales data out of the US registered an increase in pace from 0.1% m/m to 0.6% m/m, which was accompanied by stable jobless claims. The markets were pretty resistant to this data, closing the day near the opens with some minimal choppiness around the time the data were released. It should be noted that retail sales are published in terms of value, not volume. That means that this print was impacted by the recent pick up in US inflation, but signals some resilience in the American consumer.
In an environment clouded by uncertainty and obfuscation, we can look to none other than US President Trump as a source of transparency. Indeed, yesterday afternoon, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that “the President has been very transparent about his displeasure with both the policies and the management of the Fed.” While tactful, it may also be the understatement of the century. After the retail sales data release, Trump publicly pushed for rate cuts once again truthing “’Too Late:’ Great numbers just out. LOWER THE RATE!!! DJT.” The rates market was unconvinced by Trump’s plea, with investors still positioned for around 1.7 cuts by year-end, the same positioning as before the data were released.
But while rates were unimpressed, equities marked new gains as the S&P 500 continued to climb upwards, setting new all time highs, breaking through $6,300. Meanwhile, USD also appeared to strengthen as the best performing G10 currency on a one-day basis, and maintaining its status as the best performing G10 currency month-to-date.
On the other end of the spectrum, AUD made for a pitiful performance, depreciating 0.63% against USD after the Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June–the highest rate since November 2021. A cut at the August 12 meeting had already been largely priced in by the market, but the recent labor data drove investors to price in around 45 more bp worth of cuts by 2025 year-end.
Elsewhere, yesterday was CPI day, with releases hot off the press in the Eurozone. Eurozone aggregate CPI inflation final June estimates printed at a steady 2.0% y/y, while prices increased at a rate of 0.3% m/m. As these were final estimates, markets had already priced in these CPI data and neither European rates nor EUR saw much action.
end
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
BRAZIL
Brazil’s Ex-President Bolsonaro Ordered To Wear Ankle Monitor: “Meant To Utterly Humiliate Me” For Trump Ties
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 01:45 PM
The man called among many “The Brazilian Donald Trump” or also the “Trump of the Tropics” is continuing to endure a drawn-out legal saga, to which he has newly responded, “This is meant to utterly humiliate me.” The other side alleges foreign meddling and inviting Trump’s interference in national affairs, especially vital trade.
Federal police confirmed Friday they executed a raid and search on the residence and offices of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, with a court ordering him to now wear an ankle monitor over fears he might attempt to flee the country.
The search warrants were authorized by Brazil’s Supreme Court, citing the prosecutor general’s warning of a “concrete” risk that Bolsonaro could depart Brazil while facing trial for allegedly trying to overturn President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 2023 election win.
The court’s ruling requires Bolsonaro to also avoid using social media, cease any communication with foreign officials, and he is prohibited from entering embassies or consulates within Brazil.
The latest concerns and accusations get wilder, as the Supreme Court further revealed that police believe Bolsonaro could be collaborating with his son, federal lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, in lobbying efforts in Washington toward trying to persuade President Donald Trump’s administration to sanction Brazil.
These claims follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports unless Bolsonaro received legal protections. This has indeed appeared to put Bolsonaro directly in the middle of the back-and-forth threats in a very public way…
Is the ankle monitor the state’s revenge for this video thanking Trump?
Bolsonaro to Trump: ’I received your personal letter with great joy’
‘It's my sincere hope that the government of Brazil will change course stop attacking political opponents and end up with this regime RIDICULOUS censorship’ https://t.co/TjsaVjmfaHpic.twitter.com/VW6x6CWncw
Brazil’s ruling authorities only see in this more evidence of attempted ‘foreign influence’ and external political meddling facilitated by the ex-president. As expected President Lula has hit back hard in his latest statement:
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva accused the US on Thursday of “unacceptable blackmail” over the proposed tariff, the highest “reciprocal tariff” that Trump has proposed in his current round of trade measures.
The leftwing leader used a televised address to the nation to strike a combative stance against the levy, which would hit Brazil’s exports of products such as crude oil, orange juice, beef, coffee and airplanes. Lula also said that attempting to interfere in his country’s justice system was a “grave attack on national sovereignty”, while dismissing as “false” US allegations of unfair trade practices by Brazil.
Bolsonaro’s legal team has slammed the ankle monitor and other new measures as “extreme” and expressed “shock and indignation,” noting that he has all the while consistently and willingly obeyed all judicial orders.
His son, Eduardo Bolsonaro responded in an online statement asserting the legal crackdown is motivated by revenge for a video his father posted thanking Trump for his support.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1643 UP 0.0028 PTS OR 28 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.60 UP 0.156 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3440 UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3726 DOWN 0.0010(CDN DOLLAR UP 10 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 17.66 PTS OR 0.50%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 326.71 PTS OR 1.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.30%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 326.71 PTS OR 1.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.66 PTS OR 0.50%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.30 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 82.08 PTS OR 0,21%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3347.90
silver:$38.28
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.07 DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.14% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.539% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS AND 00/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.305 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.575 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6910 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1659 UP 0.0044 OR 44 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.36 DOWN 0.083 OR YEN IS UP 8 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6680 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0026 OR 26 BASIS pts to 1.3690
The week was dominated by rising tariff/trade uncertainty…offset by improving domestic macro and micro situation, and a drop in geopolitical uncertainty…
Source: Bloomberg
But it was an odd week:
Nasdaq rallied for the 3rd of the last 4 weeks but The Dow ended red for the second week in a row.
MegaCapTech was higher for the 4th week in a row
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks ripped higher for the 8th straight week to its highest since Aug 2022
Long-Bond yields were higher for the 3rd straight week while the short-end saw yields decline.
Dollar rallied for the second week in a row
Gold managed modest gains for the second week in a row
Palladium rose to its highest since June 2023, up for the5th week in a row
Platinum returned to gains (after last week’s drop), to its highest since 2014 (up 6 of the last 7 weeks)
Bitcoin ended down on the week (after testing new record highs)
Ethereum soared over 20% on the week (its 4th straight week of gains)
However, in many ways, 2025 is shaping up now to be a continuation of the post-pandemic echo-boom era.
One characterized by stubborn, but not too-high inflation, surprisingly steady growth, full employment, oscillating business sentiment, a steady positive impulse from technology advances, and upward pressure on corporate earnings. And, as Goldman Sachs’ Chris Hussey details below, we saw elements of many of these characteristics this week.
Inflation. Both June CPI and PPI came in anemically low this week with little signs that tariffs are pressuring prices higher.
Retail and Industrial Production. Core Retail Sales rose 0.5% mom in June, albeit off of a revised lower base, and Industrial Production was up 0.3% – highlighting the resilience of the US consumer and manufacturing base amidst so much policy uncertainty.
Business sentiment. The Philly Fed index jumped to +15.9 from -4.0 a month ago, reflecting a sharp shift in how industry is viewing activity and growth prospects in the wake of everything that has taken place lately.
All of which leaves ‘soft’ data catching up rapidly to ‘hard’ data’s relative strength after an initially weak July…
Source: Bloomberg
In addition to the better activity data, we are also seeing sustained technology advances taking place even in an environment that in some ways has taken on a more skeptical tone around science. For the week, NVDA shares have gained ~5%, helped by news that it may resume shipments of its sought after GPU’s to China as US trade policy evolves (dramatically more bubbly than the CSCO dotcom bubble)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, earnings season heated up a bit this week with the Big Banks reporting results as well as a slew of companies across the economy’s spectrum. The big banks faced a high bar into earnings having gained 20%-40% over the past 3 months, and many found that bar difficult to exceed. Half of the big bank stocks traded down on the week while half traded up. The stock with the best performance for the week: Citi — up ~8% on the back of results that set it on a path to better returns. Beyond the Banks, we had strong results from GE and JNJ with a more negative reaction to results from NFLX and UAL.
Overall, evidence that the policy uncertainty that characterized 2Q25 is having a major impact on economic or corporate activity in the US remains scarce… at least for now…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘good news’ was ‘bad news’ for rate-cut hopers as 2025 expectations slipped lower (but 2026’s expectations rose modestly)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks ended the week on a down-note as ‘good news was bad news’. Stocks legged down again to the lows of the day after headlines on Trump’s EU tariff plans hit: “*TRUMP PUSHES FOR 15%-20% MINIMUM TARIFF ON ALL EU GOODS: FT”. Stocks then trod water at the lows of the day leaving The Dow red on the week while Nasdaq outperformed…
Goldman notes that despite the positive sentiment and lower inflation expectations today, there’s a lot of ‘wrong way’ action today: Shorts > Longs .. Small > Big .. SW > Semis .. Value > Growth
Mag7 stocks dramatically outperformed the S&P 493 this week…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks soared this week
Source: Bloomberg
Momo stocks rebounded strongly this week…
Source: Bloomberg
But hedge funds suffered bigly, with returns dragged down to the lows of the year…
Source: Bloomberg
Before we leave equity-land, one more chart for fun… Trump 2.0 is now outperforming Trump 1.0…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed on the week with the long-end underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
… as the curve (2s30s) steepened further on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, given the decline in inflation expectations and CPI/PPI coming in cooler than expected, inflation swaps (expectations) rose notably on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended higher amid a wild week of swings amid CPI/PPI and Trump/Powell comments…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil gave up earlier gains to end the week lower as traders calmed over geopolitical risks and reassessed future supply-demand balances.
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended the week unchanged – after hitting new record highs on Monday…
Source: Bloomberg
But Ethereum was the week’s biggest gainer, breaking out to new cycle highs above $3600 late in the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, with the success of ‘Crypto Week’, it appears the digital currencies have finally crossed the Rubicon. As Bloomberg’s Brendan Fagan reports, after years of speculative booms and existential regulatory uncertainty, Washington has delivered the crypto space its long-sought legitimacy, and Ethereum, in particular, is reaping the benefits.
Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin for the 4th straight week…
Source: Bloomberg
And for all those who claim Bitcoin is just ‘too volatile’ – the 3-month realized vol of the crytpocurrency is now at its lowest relative to the DXY Dollar Index in over 8 years…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto is no longer a fringe experiment; it’s a maturing asset being welcomed into the financial mainstream.
USA DATA RELEASES
Renter Nation Returns: Surge In Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Saves US Housing Market
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 08:40 AM
Despite homebuilder confidence in the toilet (and Pulte’s daily calls alongside Trump for lower rates), US Housing Starts and Permits surprised to the upside in June.
Building Permits rose 0.2% MoM (-0.5% MoM exp), also rebounding from May’s 2.0% MoM decline.
Source: Bloomberg
Although in context, this lifts the Starts and Permits SAAR just barely off the lowest levels since the COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
A surge in Multi-family unit starts and permits saved the month, while single-family home starts and permits were not pretty…
Source: Bloomberg
Will lower Fed Fund rates do anything to lower mortgage rates? Or will the implied curve steepening further crush affordability? Dear Mr. Trump, be careful what you wish for.
END
UMich Sentiment Surges Higher As Inflation Expectations Plunge
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 10:10 AM
Following June’s bounce, preliminary July data from UMich’s Sentiment survey was expected to continue rebounding… and it did.
The headline sentiment index rose from 60.7 to 61.8 (above the 61.5 exp) with a big bounce in Current Conditions (from 64.8 to 66.8) and a small rise in future expectations from 58.1 to 58.6. All better than expected and all at their highest level since February…
Source: Bloomberg
“Consumers’ expectations over business conditions, labor markets, and even their own incomes continue to be weaker than a year ago,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
“That said, the recent two-month lift in sentiment suggests that consumers believe that the risk of the worst-case scenarios they expected in April and May has eased,’’ Hsu said.
The spread between Republican and Democrat sentiment is back at record wides…
Source: Bloomberg
Most notably, inflation expectations tumbled from 5.0% to 4.4% (1Y) and from 4.0% to 3.6% (5-10Y)…
Source: Bloomberg
With Democrats and Independents finally realizing that their insane expectations for inflation were just that…
Source: Bloomberg
And the same picture emerges on the longer-term expectations.
Source: Bloomberg
Well, this puts more pressure back on Powell as ‘inflation expectations’ seem like they are back under control.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
This is big!!
Fwd: BREAKING: Jerome Powell Criminally Referred For Alleged Perjury About $2.5 Billion Building Renovation | The Gateway Pundit | by Cristina Laila
On Thursday, Chairman of the Board of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bill Pulte, said Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be criminally referred to the Justice Department for alleged perjury about the $2.5 billion building renovation plan.
“I am told by very reliable Congressional sources that there may be a criminal referral coming from one or more Congress members to the DOJ for Jay Powell’s alleged perjury about the $2.5BN building,” Pulte said on X.
I am told by very reliable Congressional sources that there may be a criminal referral coming from one or more Congress members to the DOJ for Jay Powell’s alleged perjury about the $2.5BN building.
Powell is under fire for the cost of renovating the Fed’s DC headquarters. The cost ballooned from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion.
“Powell has asked the central bank’s inspector general to conduct an additional review of the ongoing renovation, CNN previously reported. Last month, some Senate lawmakers grilled Powell over what they depicted as lavish upgrades to its DC headquarters at Powell’s semiannual monetary policy hearing,’ CNN reported.
“The Fed’s renovation project was approved by its board in 2017 and originally cost $1.9 billion in 2019. Construction began in 2021, but the cost swelled to $2.5 billion because of “unforeseen conditions” requiring more spending to rectify, such as “more asbestos than anticipated, toxic contamination in soil, and a higher-than-expected water table,” according to the Fed’s website,” CNN reported.
President Trump earlier this week said Jerome Powell’s renovation scandal may be enough to fire him as the Fed Chair.
“I can’t imagine why the Fed would need a palace,” Trump said.
WATCH:go to gateway pundit
President Trump slams Jerome Powell for spending $2.5 billion on a luxurious renovation of the Fed while keeping our interest rates ridiculously high and costing us billions.
“If Jerome Powell stepped down, it would be a great thing.”
On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury surged nearly 10 basis points in a few hours, rising above 4.49 percent. The rising yield came after the release of new price-inflation data showing that CPI growth had hit a five-month high and remained well above the Federal Reserve’s two-percent target for price inflation. Rising yields often indicate that bond investors believe price inflation will continue to grow, so it was probably no coincidence that bond yields—especially on longer-term bonds—jumped following the report’s release.
Whatever the reason behind the rising yield, this is bad news for those who were looking for a good reason to believe that mortgage rates will significantly fall again soon. Mortgages for single-family homes closely follow the 10-year yield, and, as the 10-year yield has risen in recent years, the average 30-year mortgage more than doubled. Ity rose from under three percent in mid 2021 to above seven percent by late 2023. It has remained above six percent ever since.
Meanwhile, home prices continued to rise well into mid 2025. This combination of rising home prices and rising mortgage rates has made housing unaffordable for a growing share of propsective homebuyers.
In response to this trend, The Trump administration’s FHFA Director, Bill Pulte—a scion and nepo baby from a wealthy family of homebuilders—has demanded that the central bank intervene to force down mortgage rates in order to stimulate residential home sales and home prices. Pulte claims that Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s lack of enthusiasm for lowering interest rates is “the main reason” that there is not more home-sales activity. Pulte concludes that Powell is “hurting the mortgage market” by “improperly keeping interest rates high.” Pulte apparently believes that more people would buy homes if only the Fed fixed the situation with lower interest rates.
When the Fed intervenes to lower interest rates, monetary inflation is required. To demand lower interest rate policy—as Pulte is doing—is to demand more inflation. At the core of this inflationist position is the misconception that rising home prices—and their negative effect on homeownership—can somehow be “fixed” or rendered irrelevant by lower interest rates. This is not how things work, however. Even if mortgage rates were to go down again, rising prices mean homeowners would still be stuck with higher costs and higher property taxes that result from rising prices. Moreover, Pulte is wrong to even assume that Fed intervention via the policy interest rate would somehow, magically, bring down 30-year mortgage rates.
Problems with Rising Home Prices
Last week, we explored the many ways that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and asset purchases have fueled rising home prices. There is a close correlation between the central bank’s purchases of mortgage backed securities, the falling federal funds rate, and rising home prices. Falling interest rates have fueled rising home prices. This has led to historic lows in the affordability of homeownership, and a rising average age for home owners.
As home prices have risen, homes have become less affordable. Notably, the median home price has become much larger over time, when compared to the median household income. In 1985, for example, the median home price was 3.6 times the size of annual median household income. By 2023, the median home price was 5.3 times the median household income.
Rather than address the larger issues of asset-price inflation fueled by easy money, advocates of central planning, like Pulte, insist that the best way to “solve” the problem is to have the central bank somehow force down mortgage rates.
Assuming that the central bank has the power to do this, would it make housing more affordable? In certain ways, yes. If the only measure of affordability is the size of the monthly mortgage payment, then lower mortgage rates, all else being equal, make home purchases more affordable. For example, a $500,000 loan at 3% for 30 years will require a monthly payment (on principle and interest) of about $2100. On the other hand, the same loan at 6% will require a monthly payment of nearly 3,000 per month.
But, monthly costs associated with a home purchase do not consist of only payments on a loan’s principal and interest. Homeowners must also pay property taxes and insurance. Home buyers must also come up with down payments which, of course, are proportional to the home price. Thus, home-price inflation leads to higher down payments while also driving up property taxes—which are also tied to the home price. The monetary inflation that underlies rising home prices also tends to inflate the price of services like homeowner’s insurance. Principal and interest may be fixed in a 30-year mortgage, but taxes and insurance—which increase with price inflation—are not fixed. Thus, these costs are certainly not made irrelevant by falling interest rates.
It is not surprising that, as home prices increased in the wake of the covid panic’s runaway monetary inflation, the Atlanta Fed’s affordability index plummeted to historic lows.
We can partly see why this happened if we compare prices and income over time. In 1985, for example, the median home price was about $81,000, but rose by 406 percent to about $426,000 in 2023. Obviously, any taxes, insurance, and down payments that are proportional to the home price were far lower in 1985 than they are now. Moreover, as home prices quintupled from 1985 to 2023, median household income only increased by 241 percent, rising from about $23,000 in 1985 to $84,000 in 2023.
These rising prices took their toll on affordability, even as interest rates were falling. For example, from 2006 through 2021, the average mortgage rate fell consistently. Yet, during most of that period, the affordability index only moved sideways.
Moreover, this proved to be unsustainable. The problem with constantly falling interest rates is that, eventually, they get so low that there’s not room to move downward. In 2021, mortgage rates were at or near all-time lows. Yet, the very small uptick in average mortgage rates that occurred from 2021 to 2025—with rates still below historically normal levels—caused affordability to collapse.
So, Pulte is simply wrong if he’s claiming that the Fed would increase the affordability of homes if only Jerome Powell would intervene to force down mortgage rates.
Does the Fed Have the Power to Reduce Mortgage Rates?
Finally, we have to ask ourselves if the Fed even has the ability to somehow force down mortgage rates by lowering the Fed’s policy interest rate. It appears that this may be possible some of the time. For example, from 2008 to 2022—a period when bond investors showed little concern over deficits or price inflation—both long-term and short-term yields declined as the Fed cut the target policy interest rate.
Those days, however, appear to be over. For example, when the Fed cut the policy rate in September of last year, the average mortgage rate increased. In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s extreme monetary inflation of 2020-2021, and as federal deficits continue to mount bond yields are likely to increase if the Fed tries to embrace a new easy money stance pushing lower interest rates.
Source: Bloomberg.
Not only is Pulte wrong that falling mortgage rates necessarily make homeownership more affordable, he is also probably wrong that the Fed can reduce those rates by targeting a lower policy rate. If Pulte really wanted to see homes become more affordable, he would push for less monetary inflation and for lower federal deficits. He would push for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet of mortgage backed securities. All that, however, would lead to falling home prices, and that would run afoul of the administration’s Wall Street allies who incessantly demand more asset price inflation
end
Three Dead In Explosion At Los Angeles Sheriff’s Training Facility
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 11:53 AM
Details are scant, but what we know so far is that three people are dead following an apparent explosion at a Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department training facility in East Los Angeles.
That large Los Angeles County facility—just east of downtown—was the site of the explosion about an hour ago. Three people have been killed. Now, some critical information we’re being led toward—not yet confirmed—but early indications suggest this may have been some sort of accident, possibly involving a training exercise,” Fox News reporter Jonathan Hunt said.
Hunt noted that this particular L.A. facility includes both bomb squad and SWAT training areas.
US Attorney General Pam Bondi described it as a “horrific incident that killed at least three at a law enforcement training facility in Los Angeles,” adding, “Our federal agents are at the scene and we are working to learn more.”
BREAKING: At least 3 dead in possible explosion at LA Sheriff's Department facility pic.twitter.com/IrzjMwghrH
No word yet on the explosion source, or whether the incident was an accident or potentially linked to an extremist group.
*Developing…
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
The King Report Juju 18, 2025 Issue 7536
Independent View of the News
June Retail Sales 0.6% m/m, 0.1% m/m exp June Retail Sales Ex-Autos 0.5%, 0.3% exp, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.6%, 0.3% exp June Import Price Index 0.1% m/m & -02% y/y (But the tariff inflation!), 0.3% m/m & y/y exp. Ex-Petro 0.0% m/m, 0.2% m/m expected Export Price Index +0.5% m/m & 2.8% y/y; 0.0% m/m; & 1.9% expected Initial Jobless Claims 221k, 234k exp; Continuing Claims 1.956m, 1.965m expected July Phil Fed Business Outlook 15.9; -1.0 expected May Business Inventories 0.0% as expected July NAHB Housing Market Index 33 as expected
The stronger than expected US economic data released on Thursday further chilled Fed Rate cut hopes. However, upward seasonal biases (Expiry Week and Earnings Season) boosted stocks.
ESUs traded lower when the Nikkei opened on Friday. They proceeded to fall to a daily low of 6288.25 at 23:08 ET. ESUs then rallied to 6311.50 at 2:41 ET on buying for the European opening. ESUs then formed a ‘W’ top by 5:40 ET. Traders sold; ESUs fell to 6297.00 at 7:36 ET.
The rally for the NYSE opening then commenced. ESUs soared, with a 14-handle and 15-handle drops, to a daily high of 6345.50 at 15:03 ET. ESUs then formed a ‘W’ triple top by 15:38 ET. ESUs then slid to 6341.50 at the NYSE close. The S&P 500 Inde had a larger fall into the close.
@zerohedge: This is insanity: retail 0DTE option trading is about to hit two-thirds of all daily option volumes. The market is literally a casino nowhttps://t.co/iBQvOlKV8a
What is occurring now with 0DTE option trading was what Bucket Shops did with one important difference. Bucket Shops (did NOT settle trades, just bets) had ‘knockout’ prices for the 0DTE. If the KO price was hit, the option became worthless. Shops would manipulate stocks to the knockout price.
@Vivek4real_: WHITE HOUSE JUST CONFIRMED PRESIDENT TRUMP TO ELIMINATE CAPITAL GAINS FOR BITCOIN PAYMENTS (Glaring conflict of interest!)
FT: Trump set to open US retirement market to crypto investments (Insanity and grift!) President preparing executive order to allow 401k plans to tap broad pool of alternative assets
GOP Sen. @MarshaBlackburn: Chinese nationals purchased 11,700 U.S. homes between last April through March of this year, making them the largest group of foreign investors. This is a serious threat to our national security.
Positive aspects of previous session Expiry Week and Earnings Season pattern buying boosted stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs.
Negative aspects of previous session USUs closed -1/32; Platinum rallied sharply.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will be the political fallout when the crypto bubble explodes and crushes the real economy?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6288.11 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6304.69; 6262.27
@amuse: HEALTH INSURANCE: Premiums have increased 342% since 1999, but the real issue is that out of pocket costs have grown over 1,000% in that time. Most Americans can’t afford either…https://t.co/1qcRT2ALha
From Sept 2019 to Sept 2022, Reserves at Fed more than tripled: 1.394T to 4.271T. They are 3.3988T now, just 20.4% from Sept 2022 and 2.44X higher that Sept 2019. There is too much juice in the system.
Today is July Expiry and a Summer Friday. Army Ant (hoard of retail) traders will get long for an expected rally. The major factor for the session will be the absence or presence of organic buyers or large traders to absorb the selling that the Army Ants will do before their options expire at the NYSE close.
Expected Economic Data: June Housing Starts 1.298m, Permits 1.387m; July UM Sentiment 61.5, Current Conditions 63.9, Expectations 56.9, 1-yr Inflation 5.0%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.9%
Expected Earnings: MMM 2.01, SLB .73, AXP 3.87
ESUs are +8.50; NQUs are +24.5-; USUs are +7/32; and gold is -0.50 at 20:28 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6014; 100-day MA: 5795; 150-day MA: 5867; 200-day MA: 5868 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,882; 100-day MA: 42,063; 150-day MA: 42,614; 200-day MA: 42,761 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6243.76 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5535.62 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6197.58 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6255.69 triggers a sell signal
WSJ: Jeffrey Epstein’s Friends Sent Him Bawdy Letters for a 50th Birthday Album. One Was from Donald Trump…. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which appears to be hand-drawn with a heavy marker. A pair of small arcs denotes the woman’s breasts, and the future president’s signature is a squiggly “Donald’ below her waist mimicking… The president denies he drew the image. “This is not me. This is a fake thing. It’s a fake Wall Street Journal story,” he told the publication on Tuesday… “I’m gonna sue The Wall Street Journal just like I sue everyone else,” he said… https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-jeffrey-epstein-birthday-letter-we-have-certain-things-in-common-f918d796
Oliver Darcy of Status News reported DJT asked WSJ editor-in-chief Emma Tucker to spike the story. If this is all the media has on DJT-Epstein, it’s basically a nothingburger.
Musk on alleged DJT note: Yeah, the letter sounds bogus. It really doesn’t sound like something Trump would say tbh
Now we know why earlier this week, Trump inveighed against the ‘fake Epstein Files’ and claimed Dems fabricated it. The WSJ probably contacted Trump to get his response to the note. DJT then acted to preempt any radioactive fallout from the story. PS – Shouldn’t the WSJ report who else wrote birthday notes to Epstein? If the WSJ doesn’t have other notes, why not, who leaked it to them?
One day after DJT endorsed a special counsel for the Epstein Files in an interview with John Solomon, WH Pres Sec Leavitt said Trump is now against a special counsel for the Epstein Files.
Leavitt addresses concerns about Trump’s health, ‘mild swelling’ in legs, bruise on hand Leavitt said that the president’s medical exam found that he has chronic venous insufficiency, a condition that is common in people over the age of 70. Chronic venous insufficiency is when a person’s leg veins struggle to pump blood back to the heart, causing blood to pool… https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/leavitt-addresses-concerns-about-trumps-health-mild-swelling-legs-bruise
@nicksortor: White House responds to the amnesty bill being pushed by some “Republicans” in Congress “The President has made it very clear he will NOT support amnesty for illegal aliens in ANY WAY.”
@EYakoby: Two new polls show Trump’s approval rating has risen from last week compared to this week: CNN: 86% → 88% approval among Republicans; Quinnipiac: 87% → 90% approval among Republicans. Influencers are out of touch with the American people. https://t.co/Gz66leT4n9
Democrats hit rock bottom as American voters turn away in record numbers from liberal agenda: poll – 19% of voters questioned in a new national poll give Democrats in Congress a thumbs up on how they’re handling their duties, with 72% disapproving. That’s an all-time low since Quinnipiac University first began asking congressional approval questions in their surveys 16 years ago.https://t.co/kNC63zVMYZ
@charliekirk11: CNN… latest polling of the Democrat Party… stands at just 28% favorability, the lowest in the history of their poll dating all the way back to 1992. https://t.co/MAJagc1BeC
@libsoftiktok: Rep. Pramila Jayapal accidentally admits illegals receive taxpayer-funded SNAP benefits: “Yesterday, I was at a food bank in my district talking about SNAP cuts… people are not showing up because they’re afraid… It’s undocumented immigrants.” Why are illegals in your district receiving taxpayer-funded SNAP benefits @repjayapal? https://t.co/AVY5VcmOKg
As a DoJ Attorney, Maurene Comey filed the declaration to seal the Epstein and Maxwell files.
Last year, U.S. District Judge Paul Gardephe, a George W. Bush appointee, upheld the FBI’s denial of access to the bulk of the records. The judge’s ruling rested largely on a formal declaration from a federal prosecutor deeply involved in the Epstein and Maxwell prosecutions: Assistant U.S. Attorney Maurene Comey, the daughter of former FBI Director James Comey. She argued that disclosure of the investigative records was likely to interfere with the appeal in Maxwell’s case… https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/15/pam-bondi-jeffrey-epstein-maga-base-00455207
@bennyjohnson: MSNBC: “It was a crisis then. It’s a crisis now. Why didn’t Democrats call for the Epstein list release from 21 to 25?” Dep Rep RASKIN: “I mean.. I don’t know. We had other cases…” https://t.co/nH31RA1pZn
@ThomasSowell: Scott Jennings slams Democrats for their sudden interest in the Epstein files: “Joe Biden had the files for four years! Not a single Democrat cared!” https://t.co/BAmRMrFGga
@JesseBWatters: BARACK IS BACK with his own “RULES FOR MEN” Share your feelings Skip Sports, Choose Theater (Not that there’s anything wrong with that!) Make a Gay Friend (“[Men] need [a gay friend] to show empathy and kindness…”) Split the billhttps://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1945648244043743739
And Dems/MSM wonder why most US men don’t vote for Dems!
Low IQ Jasmine Crockett Says USAID Is Vital to Fund Sesame Street in Iraq… or Something Rep Jasmine Crockett: We need USAID to fund Sesame Street in Iraq to prevent people from being “radicalized against us.” “This is so that there is not this warped thought process about the Western world…” Trump ROASTS AOC & Jasmine Crockett, “AOC… I think she’s very nice but she’s very Low IQ… Between her and Crockett, we’re going to give them both an IQ test to see who comes out best.”… https://modernity.news/2025/07/16/low-iq-jasmine-crockett-says-usaid-is-vital-to-fund-sesame-street-in-iraq-or-something/
@libsoftiktok: Illinois Gov. Pritzker’s new budget lists $500,000 to a College that has been CLOSED for 3 years. (The Grift is ubiquitous in the US politics.) Cannot make this up! https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1945477225148457382
@ClayTravis: CBS News reporter says he was diagnosed with PTSD and put on trauma leave after the Trump shooting in Pennsylvania because he “saw in the eyes” of the Trump supporters that they were coming for him. What a ***king liar and a total p***y this guy is: (What if he had to cover WWII?) https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1945856681688137830 @greg_price11: Only a journo could see a presidential candidate nearly be assassinated and somehow make himself into the real victim
@GrageDustin: 85 Autism Centers in Minnesota are under investigation for fraudulently billing Medicaid. The program started with just $1.2M in its first year. Now it’s billing over $228M in 2024 alone. Welcome to Tim Walz’s Minnesota. https://t.co/xSy950F0hv
@RealHickory: If a new bill introduced in the House passes, it would force the counting of only U.S. citizens, which could cost Democrats 27 congressional seats and would require proof of citizenship for voting nationwide in federal elections. This bill MUST pass for national security!
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy them, and only in the short run.” — Thomas Sowell (Because many Americans depend on the government!)
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“False, Malicious, Defamatory” – Trump Demands Unsealing Of Epstein Files, Threatens Lawsuit After WSJ Hit Piece
Friday, Jul 18, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Donald Trump sent notorious sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein a bawdy birthday letter with a drawing of a naked woman, an acknowledgement that the two “have certain things in common,” and a wish for “every day [to] be another wonderful secret,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday evening, citing “documents” that its reporters had reviewed.
Later on Thursday evening, Trump announced that he’d directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to pursue the release of grand jury testimony from Epstein’s prosecution, in response to the “ridiculous amount of publicity” the case is receiving.
Trump denies he had anything to do with the letter. “This is not me. This is a fake thing. It’s a fake Wall Street Journal story,” Trump told the Journal in a Tuesday-evening interview. “I never wrote a picture in my life. I don’t draw pictures of women. It’s not my language. It’s not my words.” He vowed to take the paper to court if it published the story: “I’m gonna sue The Wall Street Journal just like I sued everyone else.”
Even if the letter is authentic, it’s far from conclusive that Trump’s imagery and celebration of “secrets” referred to illegal conduct with underage females. Nonetheless, the story compounds the sustained controversy over the president’s declarations that the FBI’s “Epstein files” are a Democrat hoax, and his coalition-splitting characterization that conservatives who are pressing for the release of more Epstein documents are “weaklings” who “haven’t learned their lesson.”
The Journal said it “reviewed” the letter, but did not publish an image of it. According to the report, the letter was one of many contained in a leather-bound book compiled in 2003 by since-convicted sex-trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell. The book was a gift to celebrate Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th birthday. Others who submitted letters include billionaire Leslie Wexner and attorney Alan Dershowitz.
Bawdiness was a recurring but not necessarily universal theme among the many letters in the book. The letter attributed to Trump features the outline of a nude woman drawn with heavy marker, with arcs depicting breasts and a squiggly “Donald” signature positioned to illustrate the woman’s pubic hair. Within that frame of the female figure, the letter features typewritten text, creatively written in the fashion of an audio or video script:
“Voice Over: There must be more to life than having everything.”
Donald: Yes, there is, but I won’t tell you what it is.
Jeffrey: Nor will I, since I also know what it is.
Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey.
Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it.
Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that?
Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you.
Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.
In a 2002 interview with New York magazine, Trump acknowledged Epstein’s affinity for younger women: “I’ve known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it—Jeffrey enjoys his social life.”
After the story was published, Trump lashed out via Truth Social,calling the Journal a “disgusting and filthy rag” for publishing a “false, malicious and defamatory” story. Trump wrote that he’d contacted Journal owner Rubert Murdoch, who “stated that he would take care of it but, obviously, did not have the power to do so.” Trump also argued that, if there were any truth to suggestions he was guilty of criminal sexual conduct facilitated by Epstein, “Radical Left Lunatics” like Hillary Clinton, former CIA director John Brennan and former FBI director James Comey wouldn’t have sat on it through three elections.
Vice President JD Vance issued his own attack on the Journal, noting that the letter doesn’t sound like Trump:
“Forgive my language but this story is complete and utter bullshit. The WSJ should be ashamed for publishing it. Where is this letter? Would you be shocked to learn they never showed it to us before publishing it? Does anyone honestly believe this sounds like Donald Trump?”
Also following the Journal’s posting of the story, Trump announced he had directed Bondi to “produce any and all pertinent grand jury testimony” related to the Epstein case, while reiterating that people demanding information about who had indulged in Epstein’s stable of underage girls were falling for a “SCAM perpetuated by the Democrats.”
President Trump—we are ready to move the court tomorrow to unseal the grand jury transcripts. pic.twitter.com/hOXzdTcYYB
— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) July 18, 2025
Dershowitz’s 2003 birthday letter also used a creative approach, centered on a mockup of a “Vanity Unfair” magazine cover with the headline “Who was Jack the Ripper? Was it Jeffrey Epstein?” Dershowitz jokingly wrote that he’d persuaded the publisher to switch the focus of an article from Epstein to Bill Clinton. This week, told the Journal “It’s been a long time and I don’t recall the content of what I may have written.” Dershowitz has denied allegations he cavorted with Epstein-furnished underage partners, and has urged the release of documents to prove his innocence.
According to Trump, his friendship with Epstein ended sometime around 2004, after mutual acrimony arose from a bidding war between the two for a Palm Beach property — a war Trump won. In 2008, Epstein pleaded guilty to state charges of procuring a minor for prostitution, but was controversially allowed to enter a non-prosecution agreement that spared him and others from federal charges. After Epstein’s far more consequential arrest in 2019, Trump recalled, “I knew him like everybody in Palm Beach knew him. I was not a fan of his, that I can tell you.”
Jul 16, 2025 23:47
as to whether Russia waits for the next deep strikes on their soil with Western missiles or takes matters into their own hands to make an example. While One expects they will wait for the 1st strike using such weapons it is just as likely that based on factual information of weapons supply targets will be identified and observed long before missiles like Oreshnik fly. 9 minutes to Britain , 8 minutes to Paris and 5 minutes to Germany. 
. 
. Countries will be forced to make room for visible financial transactions. This will render “off balance sheet “ transactions far fewer as debt creation will see visible limits. 
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