we are now near the end of comex expiry: it finishes on Monday
and then we must deal with OTC/London LBMA options expiry Friday July 31
as always; the crooks raid gold/silver. The reason is suppress the price
due to huge derivative losses endured the banks. Do not fear the raids.
platinum ..OFF THE CHART//29%
gold: 3.5%
silver lease rate today//6.0%
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 4
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 62
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 140
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 745
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 926
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 15 17
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 9
709 C BARCLAYS 3
905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 962 962
MONTH TO DATE: 11,223
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 962 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 96,200 OZ or 2.992 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,223 contracts for 1,122,300 OR 34.908 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 37 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.185 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9292 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 46.460 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 38.520 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AND JULY: 46.575 MILLION OZ//
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 119.626 TONNES//STILL QUITE SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 505 CONTRACTS OI TO 173,958 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 205 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 205 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 100 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 505 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 205 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 300 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.11 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.480 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.11 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.44 PTS OR 0.01%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 358.71 PTS OR 1.43%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1396.40 PTS OR 3.51% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.67%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1614 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1599/ Oil DOWN TO 65.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.43 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1614 AND STRONG//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1599 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,968 CONTRACTS TO 472,144 OI WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $17.30 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3655 ). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //THURSDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 8313 CONTRACTS.
ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT, A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. HOWEVER LAST NIGHT ZER0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOW SATISFIED!
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1963 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN LAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE IN JANUARY(AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW DECREASED TO 1% AFTER BEING AS HIGH AT 5% AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER FINALLY ENDS OUR MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH COMMENCED EARLY LAST WEEK, AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A STRONG BUT MUCH LOWER 2699 T.A.S CONTRACTS THAN MONDAY’S JULY 14, ISSUANCE OF 22,678. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS IN FULL FORCE WITH TODAY’S RAID DURING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATION ARE JOINED WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES TO RAID THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. NOW IN JULY WE HAVE HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.334 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 37.176 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 37.176 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 32 TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 233 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3655 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 3655 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3655 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY AND THEY WERE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE WITH OUR TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WAS A FAIR SIZED 2699 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST FRIDAY OR TODAY, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE.. THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S (WEDNESDAY) HUMONGOUS LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD AND SILVER AND A CORRESPONDING LIQUIDATION OF SOME COMEX OI. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH THE RARE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK!
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 3.334 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = = 37.176 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $17.30/ /) AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ZERO NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////THURSDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE! LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH TODAY’S RAID
FRIDAYS MORNING//THURSSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AN ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.55 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 37.176 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
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ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 6.105 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 107,200 OZ OR 3.334 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY 1.555 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.626 TONNES + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 37.176 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.30
WE HAD A MAMMOTH 10,266 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,266 CONTRACTS OR 1,026,600 0Z (25.856 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 310,286 contracts// very strong
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
JULY CONTRACT MONTH
JULY 25/2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 entries i) Out of Brinks 100,600.479 oz (3129 kilobars) ii) Out of Delaware: 6351.559 oz total withdrawal 106,952.038 oz 3.326 tonnes . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks 92,755.635 oz 2885 kilobars 2. HSBC enhanced 159,911.700 oz 400 of 400 oz good London delivery bars. total deposit 252,667.335 oz 7.05 tonnes of gold entered. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 962 notice(s) 96,200 OZ 2.992 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 231 contracts 23,100 OZ 0.7185 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 11,223 notices 1,122300 oz 34.908 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks 92,755.635 oz
2885 kilobars
2. HSBC enhanced 159,911.700 oz
400 of 400 oz good London delivery bars.
total deposit 252,667.335 oz
7.05 tonnes of gold entered.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
2 entries
i) Out of Brinks 100,600.479 oz
(3129 kilobars)
ii) Out of Delaware: 6351.559 oz
total withdrawal 106,952.038 oz
3.326 tonnes
adjustments: 1
Brinks; customer account to dealer 289.359 oz (9 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 1193 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1072 CONTRACT. ON THURSDAY WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED, SO WE GAINED A MASSIVE SIZED 1072 CONTRACTS OR 107,200 OZ (3.334 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD AND COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST A NARRATIVE OF A GOLD RAID ON PRICE.
AUGUST LOST 37,897 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 139,241 AS AUGUST BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT’S OI IS STILL VERY HIGH AND NOT CONTRACTING ENOUGH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES STANDING. WE HAVE ONLY 5 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE JULY 31.
SEPT GAINED 667 CONTRACTS TO 3066
We had 962 contracts filed for today representing 96,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 15 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 962 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 17 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,223 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1193 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (962 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,145,400 OZ OR 35.626 TONNES to which we add 1.555 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 37.175 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,223 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (1193 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (962 x 100 oz) which equals 1,145,400OZ OR 35.626 TONNES + 1.555 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 37.176 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 37.176 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,895,972.850 oz 58.97 tonnes declining rapidly
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 37,762,393.929 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 20,558,651.558 or 639.469 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,203,732.361 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 18,662.978 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 580.496tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE JULY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
JULY 25
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Out of Delaware: 15,027.740 oz total withdrawal 15,027.740 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Brinks dealer acct 242,237.220 oz total deposit 242,237.220 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Int Loomis 596,314.730 oz ii) Into Brinks customer: 1,084,951.100 oz total deposit 1,681,325.830 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 37 CONTRACT(S) (0.185 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 23 contracts (0.115 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 9292 Contracts (46.46 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposit into dealer accounts
1 ENTRY
i) Into Brinks dealer acct 242,237.220 oz
total deposit 242,237.220 oz
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2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Int Loomis 596,314.730 oz
ii) Into Brinks customer: 1,084,951.100 oz
total deposit 1,681,325.830 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 ENTRY
i) Out of Delaware: 15,027.740 oz
total withdrawal 15,027.740 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 2
a) strange: Brinks addition customer acct 608,045.090 oz
b) Manfra: customer to dealer: 364,147.500 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 196.470 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 500.320 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 60 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 25 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 25 CONTRACTS OR 125,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST LOST 160 CONTRACTS TO 1,400 AS THIS MONTH BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER
SEPTEMBER LOST 1072 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 128,204 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:37 or 0.185 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 56,012 good//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9292 X5,000 oz = 46.460 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (60) AND the number of notices served upon today (37 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (9292) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(60) minus number of notices served upon today (37)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 46.575 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 46.575 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 196.470 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/500.320 million. 41.97%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 957.09 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 488.942 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG
J0HN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Gold is set to soar
Technical analysis alone points to gold rising rapidly to at least $4300 by year-end. No wonder platinum, copper, palladium, and silver are front-running gold.
| Alasdair MacleodJul 25∙Paid |
Gold continued its three-month consolidation this week, while silver outperformed. In European morning trade gold was $3348, unchanged from last Friday’s close. And silver was $38.85, up 70 cents on the week. Our headline chart shows silver now outpacing gold so far this year, up 35% and gold up 28%.
Weaking gold since Tuesday’s peak at $3431 has been the impending expiry of the Comex August contract, with last trade for call options on Monday next week.
Gold appears to be nearing the apex of a pennant pattern formation, illustrated next:
This pennant’s shape is immensely bullish. Its flat top and rising bottom reflect a strong fundamental bull which will resolve itself on the upside. Typically, a pennant is a pause in a powerful underlying price direction before its resumption. And when it breaks out of it ($3437) the subsequent move is swift.
Edwards & Magee (the definitive work on Dow Theory) describes a pennant as “These pretty little patterns of consolidation are justly regarded as among the most dependable of chart formations both as to directional and measuring indications”. And “They are half-mast patterns which ordinarily form after a fairly steady and rapid steep price movement”.
Based on this analysis, the minimum price target for gold becomes $4,340, and fairly quickly at that taking about five months, i.e. by the year-end based on the extent and time taken for the move into the pennant from mid-November 2024.
To say the least, the implications are very interesting. From a market perspective, if gold does perform as one of “the most dependable of chart formations both as to directional and measuring indications” indicates, one is left wondering what the market consequences are for the other metals, both precious and base. Look at this Finwiz chart below:
Besides commodity prices measured in declining dollars being generally tilted to the upside, the highest rises are in metals prices: platinum, copper, palladium, silver, and gold. Gold is the least performing of these metals rising only 23% on the chart’s numbers (actually 28% and silver 35%). If gold is targeting a minimum of $4340 in five months it suggests that these other metals are similarly mispriced, potentially more so the way they are jumping the gun.
Copper’s rise can be partially explained by Trump’s tariff policies, which are currently threats rather than eventual outcomes. But a paper-driven crisis in one or more of these metals due to derivative leverages entering a delivery shortage becomes a real danger. But of these metals, silver must be our focus.
Silver’s performance illustrates a catch up from severe under-pricing, which other than a few speculative episodes is decades old. For much of the time, while demand for silver for photovoltaics and other electric/electronic applications has soared the price remained depressed. That is now correcting, and for investors who have missed the gold story, which is nearly everyone, silver is the obvious route to acquiring a stake in monetary metals.
Meanwhile, silver is making up for lost time and its bull appears to be unstoppable. This is next:
While we can point to statistics and stories about supply and demand, the common factor is a decline in the dollar, whose trade weighted index still points lower:
This fits in with gold going higher. But if gold does rise to targets based on technical patterns, it is unlikely to be just a dollar crisis. Time to batten down the hatches!
end
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Serbia will hold all its gold at home, shunning global hubs
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-07-24 09:31 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Misha Savic and Jack Ryan
Bloomberg News
Thursday, July 24, 2025
Serbia’s central bank plans to bring all of its roughly $6 billion worth of gold reserves onto its own soil to ensure the security of the hoard in periods of crisis.
That will make Serbia the first eastern European country not to hold any of its bullion in traditional hubs like Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States
“By returning gold to the country, the National Bank of Serbia sought to increase the availability and security of gold reserves in periods of crisis and uncertainty,” the central bank said in response to questions, adding that the repatriation efforts began in 2021 amid “an environment of increased global uncertainty.” …
Serbia bought 17 tons abroad from 2019 through last year, in addition to at least 19 tons from Zijin Mining Group Co.’s local unit. That brought total reserves to 50.5 tons, all stashed in Belgrade except five tons bought in 2024 and still stored in Switzerland for now. That amount of gold is worth about $6 billion at current spot gold prices.
The remaining five tons will be brought home “as soon as possible,” Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said last week. …
… For the remainder of the report:
Jesse Colombo: How the gold-silver ratio predicted silver’s surge
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-07-24 17:26 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jesse Colombo
TheBubbleBubble.Substack.com
Thursday, July 24, 2025
I wanted to share an update highlighting a fascinating development — and the successful confirmation of a theory I proposed during the bleak days of early April:
That was when silver, along with most financial markets, plunged following President Trump’s surprising “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.
Silver sank a staggering 21% in just three trading sessions — a move that was both shocking and disheartening for precious metals investors. Yet even then I saw a glimmer of hope in the parallels with the early 2020 Covid lockdowns, which initially caused panic but ultimately sparked a powerful silver rally to seven-year highs.
In this update, I’ll walk through how that theory played out—and what it still indicates for silver’s path ahead. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 233
5. COMMODITY REPORT..sugar
we will certainly be more healthy but it could cause a strain on USA cane sugar supplies
(zerohedge)
Coke’s Cane-Sweetened Soda Launch This Fall Could Strain US Sugar Supplies
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 04:15 AM
President Donald Trump and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s crackdown on the ultra-processed food industrial complex has triggered a seismic shift in the beverage world. Coca-Cola is reformulating select sodas with cane sugar, and PepsiCo’s CEO has indicated similar moves. The pivot away from high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS-55), a sweetener long associated with America’s obesity and metabolic health crisis, marks a major victory for the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.
Bloomberg points out that the move to shift soda products via various top brands from HFCS-55 to cane sugar could strain the nation’s sugar supply chain…
The push means the U.S. may need to import more expensive sweetener from Mexico and Brazil — particularly if other companies follow suit.
The move threatens to worsen an already stressed supply chain, exposing American companies and consumers to higher prices just as they are facing market upheaval from Trump’s tariffs.
U.S. raw cane sugar futures are trading at record highs, with U.S. contracts now more than double the price of global benchmarks, widening the cost gap to an all-time record.
Coke plans to release the soda offering infused with cane sugar in the next several months. This could be a boon for U.S. farmers who grow the crop across Louisiana and Florida at a time when demand has been sluggish.
Bloomberg expanded more about the potential of strained cane sugar supply chains…
The problem is that the U.S. doesn’t grow a great deal of cane, making up about 30% of overall American sugar supplies, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The rest comes from imports — about 2.2 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season — or American-grown sugar beets that perform better in colder climates.
If Coke’s cane-sweetened version is a success, if would likely put a dent in those U.S. supplies. The higher demand could require more imports, especially from Mexico, which has historically been the U.S.’s biggest sugar supplier, and top sugar producer Brazil.
The other challenge with using healthier ingredients is the increased cost. USDA data shows that refined cane sugar costs more than 52 cents per pound in June, or about 12% more than high-fructose corn syrup.
Related:
- White House Unveils Sweeping MAHA Changes In Nation’s Food Supply Chain
- Trump Says Coca-Cola Agreed On Major Reformulation To Use Real Cane Sugar
- Pepsi Exec Floats Switch To Sugar After Trump Coca-Cola Announcement
MAHA must sharpen its messaging to consumers by making one thing clear: healthier food will cost more than the garbage on store shelves today, but not nearly as much as a cancer treatment later in life. After all, what’s the actual price you put on your health?
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.07 PTS OR 0.33%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 270.71 PTS OR 1.01%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 370.11 PTS OR 0.88% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.50%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1668 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1671/ Oil UP TO 66.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.50 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP TRADING AT 7.1668 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1671 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1668 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1671
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 270.71 PTS OR 1.01%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 370.11 PTS OR 0.88%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.26/ EURO RISES TO 1.1756 UP 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.602//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.33…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7620/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.644 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.368%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.486
3j Gold at $3354.90 Silver at: 39.03 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 21 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.46
3m oil (WTI) into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.33// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.602% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7954 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9350 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.413 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.954 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.923 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.55
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6490 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.556 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.100 DOWN 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Stocks Ease Back From Record High Ahead Of Tariff Deadline, Earnings Flood
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 08:29 AM
US equity futures are flat at the end of a hectic earnings week and the return of meme traders in force. The market is waiting for next week’s trading deluge when nearly 30% of the S&P reports, as well as additional trade deal headlines ahead of the Aug 1 tariff deadline, with focus on a potential 15% tariff rate deal with the EU. As of 8:00am ET S&P and Nasdaq futures are unchanged. Pre-market, megacap tech stocks are mixed with AAPL (+0.4%) leading gains and TSLA lagging (-0.9%); Energy is outperforming. Yields are higher as is the USD; 2-, 5-, 10-, 30-yr yields are 0.49bp, 1.25bp, 1.81bp, 2.69bp higher, with the 10Y tradinbg at 4.41%. Commodities are mixed with oil higher, while base and precious metals are lower. On today’s calendar we get the June preliminary durable goods orders (8:30am) and July Kansas City Fed services activity (11am).
In premarket trading, magnificent Seven stocks are mixed (Apple +0.3%, Meta +0.3%, Microsoft +0.3%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet +0.3%, Nvidia -0.2%, Tesla -0.3%).
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) falls 8% after offering convertible notes as well as common stock in a separate, registered direct offering.
- Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) climbs about 1% after the after the defense contractor posted 1Q profit that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Charter Communications (CHTR) falls 6% after the cable company reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations.
- Centene (CNC) tumbles 12% after the health insurer reported adjusted loss per share for the second quarter, surprising analysts who’d forecasted a profit.
- Comfort Systems (FIX) is up 14% after the HVAC company reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Coursera (COUR) jumps 28% after the online education company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations.
- Deckers Outdoor (DECK) rises 11% after the company reported net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Edwards Life (EW) shares are up 7% after the medical devices company raised the low end of its sales forecast range for the year.
- Intel Corp. (INTC) falls 8% after Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan sparked concerns that he was more focused on cost cutting than restoring the chipmaker’s technological edge.
- Newmont Corp (NEM) advances 2% after the precious metals miner reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV) falls 9% after Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. (PNFP) agreed to acquire the company in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion. Pinnacle (PNFP) shares are down 5%.
- Sarepta (SRPT) tumbles 11% after an evaluating committee of the European Medicines Agency recommended against the approval of the company’s gene therapy Elevidys.
Traders have eased back on a rally that took the S&P 500 to its 10th record high in 19 days amid optimism around trade deals and corporate earnings. Next week is the busiest of the earnings season and investors are looking to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate meeting on July 30 after data reduced the case for further cuts.
“Markets now see a greater chance that the Fed Chair will maintain a hawkish tone at the upcoming meeting” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Sydney. “Political dynamics and economic indicators reinforce a more cautious Fed stance.”
Bubbly valuations are also giving BofA’s Michael Hartnett pause, although there are no signs of a reversal yet and the S&P 500 is set to notch a third month of solid gains. Hartnett warned of a “bigger retail, bigger liquidity, bigger volatility, bigger bubble” as global central banks ease policy and governments loosen financial regulation. US margin debt is starting to run too hot — a potentially concerning sign for the credit market, according to Deutsche Bank credit strategists. As shown below, brokerages have extended a record $1 trillion in margin credit to clients in June.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% as disappointing earnings fueled worries about the impact of tariffs. The financial services and telecommunications sectors were the biggest laggards, while consumer products and automobile stocks outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Remy Cointreau shares rose as much as 5.5% after the French group raised its operating profit target and reported higher than expected revenues for the first quarter
- Nexity shares jump as much as 16%, the most since 2009, after the French real estate firm reported first half-year results which CIC Market Solutions said reflect “tangible operational improvement in a still challenging real estate environment”
- Close Brothers shares gain as much as 13%, after the financial services group agreed to sell its execution and securities business Winterflood Securities to Marex Group in an attempt to pare its footprint ahead of a court verdict over UK motor lending
- European mining stocks are among the worst-performers in the Stoxx 600 benchmark on Friday, after iron ore futures dropped as much as 2.5% in Singapore, the most since April 9, pressured by signs of rising supply
- Puma shares fall as much as 19% after the German sportswear maker issued what Jefferies analysts described as a “major profit warning”
- Signify shares plunge as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, after the Dutch light and lamps manufacturer reported adjusted Ebita for the second quarter that missed expectations
- Valeo shares fall as much as 16%, the most since March 2020, after a sales guidance cut as analysts note broad underperformance across all regions in the French firm’s results
- Michelin shares fall as much as 4.5% after the French car parts firm’s earnings missed expectations, with analysts noting concerns around FX and weaker volumes
- Vallourec falls as much as 4.5%, the most since May 26, after the steel producer reported net income for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, ending a six-day rally, as investors braced for the US tariff deadline and a Federal Reserve policy decision due next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.2%, set for its worst loss since June 19. Tencent and Alibaba were among the biggest drags, while Shin-Etsu Chemical shares sank in Tokyo on weak guidance. Hong Kong led declines among regional gauges, with notable losses also in Japan, mainland China and India. Japanese stocks slipped as investors took profits from this week’s strong rally, while disappointing earnings from some manufacturers hurt sentiment. The Nikkei gauge fell 0.9%. Elsewhere, Vietnamese shares rose to a record high, aided by the return of foreign fund inflows amid optimism about a trade deal with the US. The benchmark VN Index rose 0.7% at the close, surpassing its last high in January 2022.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%, rising for a second day after US President Trump downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a tour of the central bank’s renovation project on Thursday. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback having only found a modicum of support after Bloomberg reported Bank of Japan officials see the possibility of mulling another interest-rate hike this year. The pound also underperforms after UK retail sales rose less than forecast.
In rates, ten-year US Treasury yields rose two basis points to 4.42%. Euro-area government bonds extended their post-ECB selloff as traders continue to reduce their bets on a final interest-rate cut by the central bank this year this year. German 10-year yields rise another 5 bps to 2.76%. Gilts also decline, albeit to a lesser extent.
In commodities, gold extended a decline on Friday as the dollar rose after Donald Trump downplayed his clash with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Oil was steady on optimism over US trade talks ahead of a key deadline next week, and as tightness in diesel markets boosts sentiment. WTI rises 0.2% to near $66.19 a barrel. Spot gold falls $21 to near $3,347/oz. Bitcoin drops 3% and below $116,000.
On today’s calendar, we have only the June preliminary durable goods orders (8:30am) and July Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed officials remain in a communications blackout ahead of their July 30 rate decision.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
- DAX -0.5%
- CAC 40 +0.1%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.42%
- VIX little changed at 15.38
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1198.84
- euro -0.1% at $1.1737
- WTI crude +0.5% at $66.35/barrel
Top Overnight News
- The dollar gained after Donald Trump downplayed his clash with Jerome Powell over the Fed’s renovation costs, saying it wasn’t reason enough to fire him. Trump said during his visit to the Federal Reserve that it is a tough construction job, while Trump and Powell briefly voiced disagreement over renovation figures and he reiterated that he wants Powell to lower interest rates. Trump later commented that he talked with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, and noted that there was no tension, while he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing. Trump also said he has maybe three names in mind for Powell’s replacement but stated it is not necessary to fire Powell which would be a big move. BBG
- China’s budget deficit reached a record 5.25 trillion yuan ($733 billion) in the first half, as the government boosts domestic demand amid reduced US exports. BBG
- Boeing has been a big winner of Trump’s tariff wars as the firm sees a spike in int’l orders in conjunction w/White House trade deals. NYT
- Trump’s trade deal with Tokyo opens scope for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year, sources say, a prospect the central bank may start to telegraph by offering a less gloomy view on the economic outlook. RTRS
- Consumer inflation in Tokyo eased slightly in July, suggesting that the BOJ can take more time to gauge the economic impact of U.S. tariffs before raising interest rates. Headline number came in at +2.9% (down from +3.1% in June and below the Street’s +3% forecast) while core came in at +3.2% (inline with the Street, but down from +3.4% in June). WSJ
- Japan’s right-wing populists are gaining influence as voters rebel against rising prices and foreigners. The shift is fueling calls for tax cuts or more spending, and threatening Japan’s status as a global haven. BBG
- The ECB’s Martins Kazaks said in an interview that there’s “no urgent need” to move on rates, adding to expectations for a hold at the September meeting. BBG
- The U.S. has collected an additional $55 billion in tariffs this year. Corporate America has largely shouldered the bill for now, but that could change as firms gradually adjust prices to account for the new tariffs that are the highest level we have seen in decades. WSJ
- INTC (Intel) -8% in the pre on eps last night, concern the chipmaker is more focused on cutting costs than restoring its technological edge. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called investments begun under his predecessor excessive and unwise. BBG
Tariffs/Trade
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is in a pretty good place with China on trade and he will talk to China about them buying sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran, while Bessent separately commented that he met with Singapore’s Trade Minister.
- UK PM Starmer is to press US President Trump over a deal to cut tariffs on UK steel imports, according to FT.
- India’s Commerce Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his “friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they’ll be able to conclude a “very consequential partnership”.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry says China is willing to import more marketable high-quality European products; says EU should relax restrictions on exports of high-tech products to China.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were lower after the mixed performance in the US and with light catalysts for markets outside of earnings. ASX 200 mildly retreated with the downside led by underperformance in key industries including mining, materials, resources and financials, while Whitehaven Coal failed to benefit despite posting higher quarterly output and sales. Nikkei 225 gave back some of this week’s gains amid profit taking despite a weaker currency and mostly softer Tokyo CPI. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood but with the downside in the mainland cushioned after a firm PBoC liquidity effort which resulted in a net daily injection of around CNY 602bln via 7-day reverse repos, while participants await next week’s US-China trade discussions in Sweden.
Top Asian News
- PBoC Deputy Governor Zou Lan wrote that the PBoC will promote the Treasury’s role in cash and liquidity management, according to PBoC-backed Financial News.
- Japanese PM Ishiba held meetings with party leaders, although Japan’s CDP leader Noda said PM Ishiba did not mention his future in talks with party leaders, while Japan Innovation Party co-Leader Maehara said he is not considering joining PM Ishiba’s coalition.
- BoJ reportedly sees a potential rate hike environment this year, via Bloomberg citing sources; expects to have enough data by end-2025 to consider a move. No requirement to make a significant change to the outlook. US deal reduces uncertainty.
- China will implement proactive fiscal policy to promote economic recovery.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) opened lower across the board, continuing the downbeat mood seen in the APAC session. Downside which extended in the morning, but more recently a slight bounce has been seen across a few major indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and STOXX 600. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a couple of industries holding afloat. Autos were initially the underperformer, but then flicked into the green as Volkswagen (+4%) pared initial losses, as traders fully digested the results and CEO commentary. Though its not all good for the sector, with Traton firmly in the red after it slashed its 2025 outlook amid US tariff uncertainty. LVMH (+4.5%) also bounced off lows seen at the open, to currently trade higher – the Co. reported a deeper than expected sales decline but its commentary on China was a little more upbeat.
European Earnings
- Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) – Headline metrics missed and cut guidance. Q2 (EUR): Revenue 80.8bln (exp. 82.19bln), -3% Y/Y. Op. Margin 4-5% (prev. guided 5.5-6.5%)
- Puma (PUM GY) – Co. cut its FY outlook, and now expects a loss in adj. EBIT terms, citing weak demand and tariff concerns.
- NatWest (NWG LN) – Strong NII and NII. Raises FY Income guidance and starts a GBP 750mln share buyback programme.
Top European News
- UK and Australia are to sign a GBP 20bln nuclear-powered submarine deal, according to The Times.
- ECB’s Villeroy says the increases in US tariffs and the extent of which is still uncertain, are not expected to cause inflation to rise, it is important to remain completely open about future monetary policy decisions.
- ECB’s Rehn says ECB will base policy decisions on a meeting-specific assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it.
- ECB’s Kazaks says no urgent need to move rates and noted value holding rates at the current level.
- ECB’s Rehn says ECB will base policy decisions on a meeting-specific assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it.
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q3): Headline inflation expectations revised down for 2025-26 but unchanged for 2027 and the longer term
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering overruling the Supreme Court in the scenario that they uphold all of the appeal court ruling that customers could be entitled to billions in compensation, via Guardian citing sources.
FX
- DXY is a touch higher, in an extension of yesterday’s upside, which was brought about by upside in US yields in the wake of weekly claims and PMI metrics. That being said, DXY is still down by the best part of 1% on the week alongside the flattening of the US yield curve and a pick-up in the JPY earlier in the week. Focus today will be on US Durable Goods and Atlanta Fed GDPNow. DXY briefly eclipsed yesterday’s best at 97.55 before topping out at 97.63.
- EUR remains more resilient than peers vs. the USD in the wake of Thursday’s “hawkish” ECB policy announcement. To recap, the GC stood pat on policy as expected given the current uncertainties surrounding the trade outlook. The greatest source of traction came after Lagarde reiterated that policy remains in a good place, suggesting that policymakers are not in a rush to adjust policy. Elsewhere, German IFO metrics came in a touch below expected but failed to engineer any traction in EUR. EUR/USD remains within Thursday’s 1.1731-88 range.
- JPY is continuing to give back some of its gains vs. the USD seen earlier in the week on account of the US-Japan trade deal. Today’s price action has been aided by softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI data, which showed the headline and core readings retreated beneath the 3% level for the first time since March. Attention is now pivoting to next week’s BoJ policy announcement, which is widely-expected to see policymakers stand pat on rates. Source reporting today via Bloomberg noted that the BoJ sees a potential rate hike environment this year and expects to have enough data by end-2025 to consider a move.
- GBP is pressured vs. the USD in the wake of softer-than-expected June retail sales metrics. M/M retail sales printed at 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.2% (prev. -2.8%), Y/Y came in at 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (prev. -1.1%). Nonetheless, GBP was sent lower vs. both the USD and EUR with markets despondent regarding the current UK macro environment, which is one characterised by slowing growth, a loosening labour market and stubborn inflation. Cable has delved as low as 1.3460 but still holding comfortably above the weekly trough from Monday at 1.3402.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD alongside this morning’s soft risk tone and a lack of pertinent antipode-specific drivers.
- Barclays month-end rebalancing: weak USD selling against all majors.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1419 vs exp. 7.1609 (Prev. 7.1385).
Fixed Income
- A softer start to the session for USTs. However, once again, the magnitude of price action is relatively modest for USTs at this point in time. Some focus on Trump’s meeting with Fed Chair Powell, where the President called for cuts but said it is not necessary to fire him and doing so would be a big move. Attention now turns to US Durable goods & Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker. Thus far, USTs are at the low-end of a 110-24+ to 110-31 band, entirely within Thursday’s 110-19+ to 111-02 parameter.
- Bunds are also in the red but under much more pressure than USTs. At most, lower by over 70 ticks to a 128.84 trough and a fresh low for the week. Overnight action was contained, in-fitting with peers, with selling emerging in the early-European morning, gradually at first but then intensifying into the cash equity open despite the weaker start there – no real driver for the move. As such, it appears the move is a continued repricing of the ECB after the meeting yesterday where Lagarde said they are in a good policy place. Since, source reports via Bloomberg and Reuters outline that the baseline for September is for rates to be maintained. No move to Ifo this morning, the series printed softer than forecast across the board.
- Gilts are softer, between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. Lower by 20 ticks at most in a 91.32-55 band and entirely within Thursday’s 91.18-69 parameters. The only update of note so far has been Retail Sales, which saw a bounce in-line with the direction of analyst expectations, though disappointing the strong consensus view. Nonetheless, Pantheon Macro maintains their Q2 GDP growth view of 0.2% Q/Q.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent held an upward bias following Thursday’s gains on the back of trade optimism, with desks pointing out that Chevron’s resumption of operations in Venezuela overlooked against the backdrop of trade developments. More recently some pressure has been seen across the crude complex, to take WTI and Brent towards the unchanged mark. Today’s session has been lacking on pertinent updates, still awaiting the readout of the Iran/E3 meeting. WTI resides in a USD 66.05-66.74/bbl range with its Brent counterpart in a USD 69.21-69.86/bbl range at the time of writing.
- Precious metals are lower despite the cautious risk tone but amid a firmer Dollar as assets are seemingly sold in favour of cash heading into the weekend. Spot gold dipped under yesterday’s low (USD 3,351.46/oz) as it eyes the 50 DMA to the downside (USD 3,341.27/oz) as it trades in a USD 3,344.64-3,373.50/oz parameter.
- Mixed trade across base metals in line with the broader tentativeness across the markets amid a lack of fresh catalysts. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 9,821.45-9,887.75/t range at the time of writing.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jun P Durable Goods Orders, est. -10.71%, prior 16.4%
- 8:30 am: Jun P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
- 8:30 am: Jun P Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 1.7%
- 8:30 am: Jun P Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The risk-on tone just about continued yesterday, as another batch of strong US data supported investor optimism, with the S&P 500 (+0.07%) ending a quiet session at a 4th consecutive all-time high. But whilst equities were rallying, sovereign bonds struggled across the board, as the latest data and a hawkish-leaning ECB decision saw investors dial back the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, particularly in Europe. So the 2yr yield in Germany (+9.1bps) and France (+9.0bps) both posted their biggest jump since May, and US Treasuries lost ground across the curve.
In terms of that ECB decision, the main headline was much as expected, with rates being left unchanged for the first time in a year. However, there were several aspects that leant in a more hawkish direction, which led to growing doubts about whether they’d deliver another cut anytime soon. The statement kept their options open with the ECB “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”, while Lagarde said that they were “in a good place now to hold and to watch how these risks develop over the course of the next few months.” Moreover, Lagarde did not rule out the possibility of the next move being a hike when asked.
That meeting led to a clear reaction among European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+6.3bps), OATs (+7.9bps) and BTPs (+8.9bps) all ending the day higher. That came as investors grew more sceptical that the ECB would cut again this year, and there was additional momentum after the flash PMIs for July were a bit stronger than expected. For instance, the Euro Area composite PMI rose to an 11-month high of 51.0 (vs. 50.7 expected), so it added to the sense that the European economy had held up after Liberation Day.
Later in the session, there was then a Bloomberg article which said that those pushing for another cut “face an uphill battle”, and that another hold “looks like the baseline for September”. So that fit into the message from the press conference, and meant that yields got a fresh push higher into the close. Our own European economists see the ECB as signaling an extended pause and while another rate cut is possible, it may not be immediate. They also think the first hike could come sooner than most assume. See their full reaction here.
In the meantime, US Treasuries also struggled thanks to a strong batch of US data. In particular, the weekly initial jobless claims fell for a 6th consecutive week, falling to 217k over the week ending July 19 (vs. 226k expected). Bear in mind that this series had seen a decent move higher in May, with the 4-week moving average up to its highest in almost two years, so that had contributed to fears the labour market might be softening. So the recent run of declines has led to a lot more optimism, and the 4-week moving average also fell to a 3-month low. And that came alongside some better-than-expected flash PMIs, with the composite reading for the US up to a 7-month high of 54.6 (vs. 52.8 expected).
With that strong data in hand, investors dialled back the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year, and the amount priced in by the December meeting fell -1.9bps on the day to 43bps, the joint lowest it has been since February. And in turn, that meant US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2yr yield up +3.6bps to 3.92%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +1.5bps to 4.40%.
Yesterday also saw Trump visit the Fed’s renovation project, whose cost overruns have drawn criticism from the President and Congressional Republicans. Trump again brought up the project costs and his desire for lower rates during the visit, but he largely downplayed his clash with Powell. Trump claimed there was “no tension” between him and the Fed Chair and said “I just don’t think it’s necessary” to fire him. However there was an open disagreement between the two live on camera about the scope of the renovation works at the Fed which was a remarkable spectacle to watch. You’ll be able to see a similar clash tonight at my home as the scope and budget of our redecoration work continue to get debated over pizza and a glass of wine.
For equities, it was another (slightly) up day thanks to the robust data, with the S&P 500 (+0.07%) and NASDAQ (+0.18%) both hitting a fresh record high. There were bits of softness, with the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 down -0.33%, but overall it was a quiet session with the S&P seeing a trading range of just 0.35%, its narrowest since February. Tesla (-8.20%) was one of the worst performers as investors reacted to their earnings results after the previous day’s close. So that meant the Magnificent 7 ended up falling -0.21%, despite gains for each of the other 6 companies. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.24%) moved up to a two-week high, and the FTSE 100 (+0.85%) reached another all-time high.
Overnight S&P 500 (+0.21%), Nasdaq (+0.16%) and STOXX 50 (+0.04%) futures are edging up even if most of Asia is on the decline. The Hang Seng (-1.13%) is the largest underperformer, while the CSI (-0.53%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.34%) are also retreating, although they are on track for a robust week. Elsewhere, Japanese shares have been the standout performers this week; however, mixed inflation data is dampening some of the optimism, with the Nikkei (-0.75%) and the Topix (-0.74%) both trading significantly lower. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI stands out today, increasing by +0.30% following some favorable earnings reports.
Coming back to Japan, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) mostly eased more than anticipated in July, but core-core stayed at 3.1% YoY as expected marking the fifth month above 3% YoY. The core CPI rose by +2.9% year-on-year in July, falling short of the expected +3.0%, and down from the +3.1% recorded in the previous month. Additionally, headline CPI inflation was also a tenth lower than expected at 2.9% in July, down from the prior month’s 3.1%. 10 and 30yr JGBs are -1bps and -3bps lower respectively. 10yr USTs are -1bps in a quiet session.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Ifo’s business climate indicator for Germany in July, UK retail sales for June, US preliminary durable goods orders for June, and the Euro Area M3 money supply for June.
2b European opening report
European bourses pressured, USD bid & US equity futures mixed into Durable Goods – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 05:03 AM
- US President Trump said he spoke with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, while he noted that there was no tension and he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing.
- European bourses are under pressure but off worst levels, LVMH +4% post-earnings; US futures trade mixed around the unchanged mark.
- DXY is a touch higher, JPY lags, GBP digests retail sales miss.
- USTs essentially flat, Bunds weighed on by continued ECB repricing.
- Gold loses its shine while Crude remains rangebound awaiting the next catalyst.
- Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Earnings from AutoNation & AON.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is in a pretty good place with China on trade and he will talk to China about them buying sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran, while Bessent separately commented that he met with Singapore’s Trade Minister.
- UK PM Starmer is to press US President Trump over a deal to cut tariffs on UK steel imports, according to FT.
- India’s Commerce Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his “friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they’ll be able to conclude a “very consequential partnership”.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry says China is willing to import more marketable high-quality European products; says EU should relax restrictions on exports of high-tech products to China.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) opened lower across the board, continuing the downbeat mood seen in the APAC session. Downside which extended in the morning, but more recently a slight bounce has been seen across a few major indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and STOXX 600.
- European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a couple of industries holding afloat. Autos were initially the underperformer, but then flicked into the green as Volkswagen (+4%) pared initial losses, as traders fully digested the results and CEO commentary. Though its not all good for the sector, with Traton firmly in the red after it slashed its 2025 outlook amid US tariff uncertainty. LVMH (+4.5%) also bounced off lows seen at the open, to currently trade higher – the Co. reported a deeper than expected sales decline but its commentary on China was a little more upbeat.
- US equity futures (ES U/C NQ U/C RTY +0.1%) are mixed but ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark; the RTY is back on a firmer footing today, and incrementally outperforms after a session of losses in the prior session.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
EARNINGS
- Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) – Headline metrics missed and cut guidance. Q2 (EUR): Revenue 80.8bln (exp. 82.19bln), -3% Y/Y. Op. Margin 4-5% (prev. guided 5.5-6.5%)
- Puma (PUM GY) – Co. cut its FY outlook, and now expects a loss in adj. EBIT terms, citing weak demand and tariff concerns.
- NatWest (NWG LN) – Strong NII and NII. Raises FY Income guidance and starts a GBP 750mln share buyback programme.
FX
- DXY is a touch higher, in an extension of yesterday’s upside, which was brought about by upside in US yields in the wake of weekly claims and PMI metrics. That being said, DXY is still down by the best part of 1% on the week alongside the flattening of the US yield curve and a pick-up in the JPY earlier in the week. Focus today will be on US Durable Goods and Atlanta Fed GDPNow. DXY briefly eclipsed yesterday’s best at 97.55 before topping out at 97.63.
- EUR remains more resilient than peers vs. the USD in the wake of Thursday’s “hawkish” ECB policy announcement. To recap, the GC stood pat on policy as expected given the current uncertainties surrounding the trade outlook. The greatest source of traction came after Lagarde reiterated that policy remains in a good place, suggesting that policymakers are not in a rush to adjust policy. Elsewhere, German IFO metrics came in a touch below expected but failed to engineer any traction in EUR. EUR/USD remains within Thursday’s 1.1731-88 range.
- JPY is continuing to give back some of its gains vs. the USD seen earlier in the week on account of the US-Japan trade deal. Today’s price action has been aided by softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI data, which showed the headline and core readings retreated beneath the 3% level for the first time since March. Attention is now pivoting to next week’s BoJ policy announcement, which is widely-expected to see policymakers stand pat on rates. Source reporting today via Bloomberg noted that the BoJ sees a potential rate hike environment this year and expects to have enough data by end-2025 to consider a move.
- GBP is pressured vs. the USD in the wake of softer-than-expected June retail sales metrics. M/M retail sales printed at 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.2% (prev. -2.8%), Y/Y came in at 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (prev. -1.1%). Nonetheless, GBP was sent lower vs. both the USD and EUR with markets despondent regarding the current UK macro environment, which is one characterised by slowing growth, a loosening labour market and stubborn inflation. Cable has delved as low as 1.3460 but still holding comfortably above the weekly trough from Monday at 1.3402.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD alongside this morning’s soft risk tone and a lack of pertinent antipode-specific drivers.
- Barclays month-end rebalancing: weak USD selling against all majors.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1419 vs exp. 7.1609 (Prev. 7.1385).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- A softer start to the session for USTs. However, once again, the magnitude of price action is relatively modest for USTs at this point in time. Some focus on Trump’s meeting with Fed Chair Powell, where the President called for cuts but said it is not necessary to fire him and doing so would be a big move. Attention now turns to US Durable goods & Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker. Thus far, USTs are at the low-end of a 110-24+ to 110-31 band, entirely within Thursday’s 110-19+ to 111-02 parameter.
- Bunds are also in the red but under much more pressure than USTs. At most, lower by over 70 ticks to a 128.84 trough and a fresh low for the week. Overnight action was contained, in-fitting with peers, with selling emerging in the early-European morning, gradually at first but then intensifying into the cash equity open despite the weaker start there – no real driver for the move. As such, it appears the move is a continued repricing of the ECB after the meeting yesterday where Lagarde said they are in a good policy place. Since, source reports via Bloomberg and Reuters outline that the baseline for September is for rates to be maintained. No move to Ifo this morning, the series printed softer than forecast across the board.
- Gilts are softer, between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. Lower by 20 ticks at most in a 91.32-55 band and entirely within Thursday’s 91.18-69 parameters. The only update of note so far has been Retail Sales, which saw a bounce in-line with the direction of analyst expectations, though disappointing the strong consensus view. Nonetheless, Pantheon Macro maintains their Q2 GDP growth view of 0.2% Q/Q.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent held an upward bias following Thursday’s gains on the back of trade optimism, with desks pointing out that Chevron’s resumption of operations in Venezuela overlooked against the backdrop of trade developments. More recently some pressure has been seen across the crude complex, to take WTI and Brent towards the unchanged mark. Today’s session has been lacking on pertinent updates, still awaiting the readout of the Iran/E3 meeting. WTI resides in a USD 66.05-66.74/bbl range with its Brent counterpart in a USD 69.21-69.86/bbl range at the time of writing.
- Precious metals are lower despite the cautious risk tone but amid a firmer Dollar as assets are seemingly sold in favour of cash heading into the weekend. Spot gold dipped under yesterday’s low (USD 3,351.46/oz) as it eyes the 50 DMA to the downside (USD 3,341.27/oz) as it trades in a USD 3,344.64-3,373.50/oz parameter.
- Mixed trade across base metals in line with the broader tentativeness across the markets amid a lack of fresh catalysts. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 9,821.45-9,887.75/t range at the time of writing.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) -19.0 vs. Exp. -20.0 (Prev. -18.0)
- UK Retail Sales MM (Jun) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -2.7%, Rev. -2.8%); Ex-Fuel MM (Jun) 0.6% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -2.8%, Rev. -2.9%)
- UK Retail Sales YY (Jun) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -1.3%, Rev. -1.1%); Ex-Fuel YY (Jun) 1.8% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -1.3%, Rev. -1.2%)
- EU Money-M3 Annual Growth (Jun) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.9%); Loans to Non-Fin (Jun) 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%); Loans to Households (Jun) 2.2% (Prev. 2.0%)
- German Ifo Business Climate New (Jul) 88.6 vs. Exp. 89.0 (Prev. 88.4); Current Conditions New (Jul) 86.5 vs. Exp. 86.7 (Prev. 86.2); Expectations New (Jul) 90.7 vs. Exp. 91.1 (Prev. 90.7)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK and Australia are to sign a GBP 20bln nuclear-powered submarine deal, according to The Times.
- ECB’s Villeroy says the increases in US tariffs and the extent of which is still uncertain, are not expected to cause inflation to rise, it is important to remain completely open about future monetary policy decisions.
- ECB’s Rehn says ECB will base policy decisions on a meeting-specific assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it.
- ECB’s Kazaks says no urgent need to move rates and noted value holding rates at the current level.
- ECB’s Rehn says ECB will base policy decisions on a meeting-specific assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it.
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q3): Headline inflation expectations revised down for 2025-26 but unchanged for 2027 and the longer term
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering overruling the Supreme Court in the scenario that they uphold all of the appeal court ruling that customers could be entitled to billions in compensation, via Guardian citing sources.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said during his visit to the Federal Reserve in Washington that it is a tough construction job, while Trump and Powell briefly voiced disagreement over renovation figures and he reiterated that he wants Powell to lower interest rates. Trump later commented that he talked with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, and noted that there was no tension, while he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing. Trump also said he has maybe three names in mind for Powell’s replacement but stated it is not necessary to fire Powell which would be a big move.
- US President Trump posted “It was a Great Honor to tour the Renovation (and some new Construction!) of the Federal Reserve Building with Chairman Jerome Powell, Senator Tim Scott, and others. It’s got a long way to go, would have been much better if it were never started, but it is what it is and, hopefully, it will be finished ASAP. The cost overruns are substantial but, on the positive side, our Country is doing very well and can afford just about anything — Even the cost of this building! I’ll be watching and, hopefully, adding some expertise. As everyone knows, I renovated the Old Post Office on Pennsylvania Avenue, and it was a roaring SUCCESS. The total Construction cost was a small fraction of the Fed Building’s cost, and it is many times the size. With all of that being said, let’s just get it finished and, even more importantly, LOWER INTEREST RATES!”
- BofA weekly flow report notes USD 25.9bln into bonds, USD 13.7bln into cash, USD 5.8bln into stocks, USD 3.6bln into crypto, USD 1.6bln into gold.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- French President Macron announced that France will recognise a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu condemned French President Macron’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state and stated that such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy. Furthermore, Israel’s Defence Minister said Macron’s announcement of his intention to recognise the Palestinian state is a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism, while they will not allow the establishment of a Palestinian entity that would harm their security and endanger their existence.
- US Secretary of State Rubio posted the US strongly rejects French President Macron’s plan to recognise a Palestinian state.
- Israeli official told Reuters that Hamas’s response to ceasefire talks does not allow for progress without a concession by Hamas and Israel intends to continue talks.
- Israeli official said the Israeli delegation will return to Qatar only when there is a feasible prospect of finalising an agreement and Hamas’s response does not allow for progress unless they show flexibility, while mediators were surprised by Israel’s decision and stated that “It would have been better if they had stayed and closed a deal”, according to Journalist Stein.
- Hamas said it is surprised by the remarks from US Envoy Witkoff over the group’s position in ceasefire negotiations, while it added that mediators welcomed the group’s constructive and positive stance in negotiations, and it is keen to continue Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
- Gaza ceasefire talks expected to continue next week following Israeli review of Hamas response, according to Al Qahera citing a source.
- European states are prepared to offer Iran an extension on a looming deadline to reimpose international sanctions, if it agrees to conditions, according to FT.
- Explosions were heard at a weapons depot in Yemen’s Al-Anad military base.
- “[Iran Supreme Leader] Khamenei adviser: No country can stop the progress of Iran’s nuclear program”, via Sky News Arabia.
OTHER NEWS
- Thailand’s acting PM said escalation and progression of military exchanges with Cambodia is moving towards war.
- Thailand’s military said border clashes took place with Cambodia early on Friday in two Thai provinces and that Cambodian forces have conducted sustained bombardment with heavy weapons, field artillery and rocket systems, while Thai forces have responded with appropriate supportive fire and advised civilians to leave the conflict areas. Furthermore, Thailand’s military condemned Cambodia’s use of long-range weapons to target civilian areas and said Cambodia’s barbaric acts have senselessly claimed lives and injured numerous innocent civilians.
- UK Foreign Ministry said it advises against all but essential travel to parts of Thailand.
- Ukraine President Zelensky says negotiating teams have discussed a leaders summit, movement towards a meeting in some form. Ukraine needs an additional USD 25bln/yr for drone production.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades just above the USD 115k, cooling from recent highs above USD 120k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were lower after the mixed performance in the US and with light catalysts for markets outside of earnings.
- ASX 200 mildly retreated with the downside led by underperformance in key industries including mining, materials, resources and financials, while Whitehaven Coal failed to benefit despite posting higher quarterly output and sales.
- Nikkei 225 gave back some of this week’s gains amid profit taking despite a weaker currency and mostly softer Tokyo CPI.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood but with the downside in the mainland cushioned after a firm PBoC liquidity effort which resulted in a net daily injection of around CNY 602bln via 7-day reverse repos, while participants await next week’s US-China trade discussions in Sweden.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC Deputy Governor Zou Lan wrote that the PBoC will promote the Treasury’s role in cash and liquidity management, according to PBoC-backed Financial News.
- Japanese PM Ishiba held meetings with party leaders, although Japan’s CDP leader Noda said PM Ishiba did not mention his future in talks with party leaders, while Japan Innovation Party co-Leader Maehara said he is not considering joining PM Ishiba’s coalition.
- BoJ reportedly sees a potential rate hike environment this year, via Bloomberg citing sources; expects to have enough data by end-2025 to consider a move. No requirement to make a significant change to the outlook. US deal reduces uncertainty.
- China will implement proactive fiscal policy to promote economic recovery.
DATA RECAP
- Tokyo CPY YY (Jul) 2.9% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%); Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 2.9% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 3.1% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Japanese Services PPI (Jun) 3.20% vs Exp. 3.20% (Prev. 3.30%)
2c Asian opening report
European equity futures a little lower after a slew of earnings, Ifo ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 01:49 AM
- US President Trump said he spoke with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, while he noted that there was no tension and he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is in a pretty good place with China on trade, and he will talk to China about them buying sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran.
- Thailand’s acting PM said escalation and progression of military exchanges with Cambodia is moving towards war.
- APAC stocks were lower after the mixed performance in the US; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after the cash market finished with gains of 0.2% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, German Ifo, US Durable Goods, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Earnings from SGS, Rightmove, NatWest, Volkswagen, Eni, Centene, AutoNation & AON.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ended the day mixed as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) outperformed, buoyed by Alphabet and broad-based Mag 7 strength (ex. TSLA), although the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.4%) lagged and pared some of its weekly gains.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) (+1.0%) and Tesla (TSLA) (-8.2%) saw mixed fortunes following their earnings, and as such, resulted in a contrast between the performances of Communications and Consumer Discretionary, while most sectors saw a downside bias with Materials also a laggard which was hit by Dow’s (DOW) (-17.5%) dismal report.
- SPX +0.07% at 6,363, NDX +0.25% at 23,220, DJI -0.70% at 44,694, RUT -1.36% at 2,252.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is in a pretty good place with China on trade and he will talk to China about them buying sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran, while Bessent separately commented that he met with Singapore’s Trade Minister.
- UK PM Starmer is to press US President Trump over a deal to cut tariffs on UK steel imports, according to FT.
- India’s Commerce Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his “friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they’ll be able to conclude a “very consequential partnership”.
- Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said he will present a contingency plan for higher US tariffs to President Lula on Monday which includes credit lines.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said during his visit to the Federal Reserve in Washington that it is a tough construction job, while Trump and Powell briefly voiced disagreement over renovation figures and he reiterated that he wants Powell to lower interest rates. Trump later commented that he talked with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, and noted that there was no tension, while he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing. Trump also said he has maybe three names in mind for Powell’s replacement but stated it is not necessary to fire Powell which would be a big move.
- US President Trump posted “It was a Great Honor to tour the Renovation (and some new Construction!) of the Federal Reserve Building with Chairman Jerome Powell, Senator Tim Scott, and others. It’s got a long way to go, would have been much better if it were never started, but it is what it is and, hopefully, it will be finished ASAP. The cost overruns are substantial but, on the positive side, our Country is doing very well and can afford just about anything — Even the cost of this building! I’ll be watching and, hopefully, adding some expertise. As everyone knows, I renovated the Old Post Office on Pennsylvania Avenue, and it was a roaring SUCCESS. The total Construction cost was a small fraction of the Fed Building’s cost, and it is many times the size. With all of that being said, let’s just get it finished and, even more importantly, LOWER INTEREST RATES!”
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were lower after the mixed performance in the US and with light catalysts for markets outside of earnings.
- ASX 200 mildly retreated with the downside led by underperformance in key industries including mining, materials, resources and financials, while Whitehaven Coal failed to benefit despite posting higher quarterly output and sales.
- Nikkei 225 gave back some of this week’s gains amid profit taking despite a weaker currency and mostly softer Tokyo CPI.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood but with the downside in the mainland cushioned after a firm PBoC liquidity effort which resulted in a net daily injection of around CNY 602bln via 7-day reverse repos, while participants await next week’s US-China trade discussions in Sweden.
- US equity futures traded with mild gains, albeit with price action muted in the absence of fresh major catalysts and ahead of next week’s key events.
- European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after the cash market finished with gains of 0.2% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY edged marginally higher after notching its first daily gain so far this week on Thursday and with little fresh developments on the trade front, although there was a slew of data releases stateside, including mixed PMIs and a continued decline in Initial Jobless Claims. Attention was also on President Trump’s visit to the Federal Reserve in Washington which spurred little reaction as Trump reiterated calls for lower rates and with Trump and Powell voicing some disagreement over renovation figures, while Trump later stated he talked with Powell about rates and the meeting was productive, as well as repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing.
- EUR/USD languished around the prior day’s lows after post-ECB whipsawing with brief tailwinds yesterday spurred by comments from ECB President Lagarde that policy is in a good place, although the gains later faded owing to the firmer buck and as the outcome of US-EU talks remained unclear heading closer to the August 1st deadline. Towards the European close on Thursday, Bloomberg and Reuters sources suggested that ECB policymakers set a high bar for a September rate cut, a rate cut would require a deterioration in data, and that those seeking another rate cut will face a battle.
- GBP/USD trickled lower from this week’s peak amid the absence of pertinent drivers and after recent soft PMIs.
- USD/JPY gradually extended on its rebound and reverted to above the 147.00 level which also follows the mostly softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data.
- Antipodeans marginally extended on the previous day’s retreat amid a lack of data from both sides of the Tasman and after risk appetite in Asia petered out.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1419 vs exp. 7.1609 (Prev. 7.1385).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lacked conviction after the prior day’s curve flattening amid a drop in jobless claims and mixed PMI figures.
- Bund futures traded subdued after recently tumbling amid mixed trade-related headlines and dampened hopes for a near-term ECB cut.
- 10yr JGB futures kept afloat but were confined within tight parameters after mostly softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI data, which showed the headline and core readings retreated beneath the 3% level for the first time since March, while the latest enhanced-liquidity JGB auction resulted in a weaker demand ratio.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures edged higher but with gains limited after yesterday’s choppy performance and reports Chevron is resuming oil pumping in Venezuela.
- US President Trump’s administration green-lighted Chevron (CVX) to resume pumping oil in Venezuela, according to WSJ citing sources. It was also reported that the US government considers limited authorisations for Venezuela’s PDVSA’s foreign oil partners, including Chevron, according to Reuters sources. However, the US State Department said it cannot speak about any specific licenses to PDVSA partners and noted the US will not allow the Maduro regime to profit from the sale of oil.
- Spot gold was lacklustre with prices contained after the dollar snapped this week’s losing streak.
- Copper futures remained lacklustre after yesterday’s pullback and amid the mostly subdued mood across the Asia-Pac.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was pressured throughout the session and approached near the USD 115k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC Deputy Governor Zou Lan wrote that the PBoC will promote the Treasury’s role in cash and liquidity management, according to PBoC-backed Financial News.
- Japanese PM Ishiba held meetings with party leaders, although Japan’s CDP leader Noda said PM Ishiba did not mention his future in talks with party leaders, while Japan Innovation Party co-Leader Maehara said he is not considering joining PM Ishiba’s coalition.
DATA RECAP
- Tokyo CPY YY (Jul) 2.9% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 2.9% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 3.1% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Japanese Services PPI (Jun) 3.20% vs Exp. 3.20% (Prev. 3.30%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- French President Macron announced that France will recognise a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu condemned French President Macron’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state and stated that such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy. Furthermore, Israel’s Defence Minister said Macron’s announcement of his intention to recognise the Palestinian state is a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism, while they will not allow the establishment of a Palestinian entity that would harm their security and endanger their existence.
- US Secretary of State Rubio posted the US strongly rejects French President Macron’s plan to recognise a Palestinian state.
- Israeli official told Reuters that Hamas’s response to ceasefire talks does not allow for progress without a concession by Hamas and Israel intends to continue talks.
- Israeli official said the Israeli delegation will return to Qatar only when there is a feasible prospect of finalising an agreement and Hamas’s response does not allow for progress unless they show flexibility, while mediators were surprised by Israel’s decision and stated that “It would have been better if they had stayed and closed a deal”, according to Journalist Stein.
- US special envoy Witkoff decided to bring his team home from Doha for consultations after the latest response from Hamas, and will now consider alternative options to bring the hostages home.
- Hamas said it is surprised by the remarks from US Envoy Witkoff over the group’s position in ceasefire negotiations, while it added that mediators welcomed the group’s constructive and positive stance in negotiations, and it is keen to continue Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
- European states are prepared to offer Iran an extension on a looming deadline to reimpose international sanctions, if it agrees to conditions, according to FT.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said Tehran will defend its nuclear rights, including uranium enrichment, in talks with E3 on Friday, while it was stated that Iran’s positions are still “strong” and enrichment will continue, according to state media.
- Explosions were heard at a weapons depot in Yemen’s Al-Anad military base.
OTHER NEWS
- Thailand’s acting PM said escalation and progression of military exchanges with Cambodia is moving towards war.
- Thailand’s military said border clashes took place with Cambodia early on Friday in two Thai provinces and that Cambodian forces have conducted sustained bombardment with heavy weapons, field artillery and rocket systems, while Thai forces have responded with appropriate supportive fire and advised civilians to leave the conflict areas. Furthermore, Thailand’s military condemned Cambodia’s use of long-range weapons to target civilian areas and said Cambodia’s barbaric acts have senselessly claimed lives and injured numerous innocent civilians.
- UK Foreign Ministry said it advises against all but essential travel to parts of Thailand.
- US issued new North Korea-related sanctions, according to the Treasury Department website.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK and Australia are to sign a GBP 20bln nuclear-powered submarine deal, according to The Times.
DATA RECAP
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) -19.0 vs. Exp. -20.0 (Prev. -18.0)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
Defending Dollar Supremacy May Be Next Phase Of US–China Trade War
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,
The U.S.–China trade war may be transitioning to a monetary standoff.
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies kickstart a reshuffling of global supply chains and trade, Beijing is looking to another battleground: the Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar.
Last month, Pan Gongsheng, head of China’s central bank, reiterated the regime’s interest in promoting the internationalization of the yuan, also known as the renminbi, at the Lujiazui Forum, a leading economic forum in Shanghai.
Tune in to China Watch, a podcast on Chinese politics, technology, and business.
The dominance of currencies, especially in the digital world, will be the next focus of the U.S.–China trade war, according to Mike Sun, a U.S.-based businessman with decades of experience advising foreign investors and traders doing business in China. He uses an alias to avoid reprisals from the Chinese regime.
William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, concurred.
Lee told The Epoch Times that the fear of sanctions has spurred the regime to try to expand the use of the yuan in an alternative cross-border payment system. Now, China is concerned about potential sanctions before its digital currencies can gain traction and become more widely adopted, he said.
The concerns that Lee mentioned are front and center for policymakers in Beijing.
In a June speech in Shanghai, China’s central banker expressed concerns that the “traditional cross-border payment infrastructures can be easily politicized, weaponized, and used as unilateral sanction instruments” as the geopolitical tension escalates.
Another prominent chief economist in China, Lian Ping, wrote in late May, “Financial sanctions and countermeasures will probably become a battlefield of U.S.–China competition in the next phase.”
These economists are not just scholars, but a well-connected brain trust of senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials, Sun told The Epoch Times. Hence, these experts don’t make recommendations; they foreshadow and interpret the regime’s actions.
Lian also warned that the United States might start imposing sanctions on a few Chinese entities, then expand the scope, eventually excluding China from the U.S. dollar-based system.
As the world’s reserve currency and primary medium for financial transactions, the U.S. dollar is the linchpin of the U.S.-led global order.
By exporting commodities to China and then buying electric vehicles from China, the member countries of BRICS can form an alternative trading system denominated in yuan, according to Lee.
BRICS is a China- and Russia-led bloc designed to counterbalance U.S.-led Western democracies that also includes Brazil, India, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran.
The “BRICS philosophy of dethroning the dollar” is a real and credible threat to the United States, and that’s why Trump is imposing extra tariffs on these countries, according to Lee.
Heads of state and government from member, partner, and observer countries pose for a family photo during the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025. The China- and Russia-led bloc, seen as a counterweight to U.S.-aligned democracies, may play a key role in the growing currency rivalry between the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar. Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty Images
During its latest summit in Brazil, the BRICS member states issued a joint statement on July 6 criticizing tariffs without naming the United States.
Shortly afterward, Trump said on Truth Social that “any Country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of BRICS” would receive an additional 10 percent tariff. Days later, he threatened a 50 percent levy on Brazil, a founding member of BRICS, citing the ongoing trial of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally.
At a Cabinet meeting on July 8, the U.S. president said BRICS wants to “destroy the dollar so that another country can take over and be the standard.”
“If we lost the world-standard dollar, that would be like losing a war, a major world war,” Trump said. “We would not be the same country any longer.”
Winding Up Tariff Battles
Tariffs were a “completely foreign language for most people” when the Trump administration launched global reciprocal levies, Lee said.
“Now, the whole world has come to accept a minimum 10 percent tariff,” he told The Epoch Times.
Lee said final tariff numbers aren’t as significant as the establishment of a new trade order.
“What matters is we have a new building in place, and the new building is much more of a decentralized trading system, incentivizing capital inflow to the United States,” Lee said. “And that’s something that has been missing from the WTO.”
At the beginning of Trump’s second term, the average tariff rate imposed by the United States was 3.4 percent, according to the World Trade Organization. The global trade system was characterized by low tariffs for exports to the United States, as well as significantly higher tariff rates or non-tariff trade barriers imposed by other countries.
Currently, the administration has extended the deadline for tariff negotiations from July 9 to Aug. 1, with no further extensions. During the interim, baseline tariff rates remain at 10 percent.
Trump has since issued tariff letters to dozens of countries, setting their rates at between 20 percent and 50 percent.
Sun described this approach as a “blind box” method, meaning that the tariff rate is revealed only upon receipt of the letter. He said that in his view, such an approach is “very effective” with the “lowest cost.”
Trump sends a message that he’s the decision-maker, and other countries can only provide input under his framework, according to Sun.
“I think all countries will eventually agree with Trump’s framework, including China,” he told The Epoch Times.
Yeh Yao-Yuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in Houston, said he views the trade negotiations as a prelude to a new cold war, resulting in the world being split into two camps: one led by the United States and the other by China.
He noted that in the U.S.–UK trade framework agreement, the two countries agreed to enhance mutual economic security by addressing “non-market policies of third countries.” Although China is not named, it is known for protecting its state-owned enterprises with industrial policies and dumping its overcapacity into the global market.
President Donald Trump, joined by (back L–R) Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Vice President JD Vance, British Ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, speaks to reporters in the Oval Office on May 8, 2025. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
There’s little room left for tariff rate negotiations between the United States and China, the experts said in interviews with The Epoch Times.
The ongoing discussions involve China trading its rare earths for U.S. chips and opening up its service industry, particularly banking and investments, to the United States.
China has had a near-monopoly on rare earths for decades, mainly because of predatory practices that have driven foreign businesses out of the sector. Therefore, it has been using its leverage on these critical minerals as a trade weapon.
However, the United States has made significant strides in removing this chokepoint through public and private partnerships, as well as by fast-tracking the permitting process.
MP Materials, the company that owns the only active rare earth mine in the United States—located in Mountain Pass, California—announced on July 10 a $400 million investment and a $150 million loan from the Department of Defense. For 10 years, the U.S. government will also guarantee the purchase of the company’s rare-earth output at a minimum price and ensure a minimum profit margin.
In effect, the public–private partnership ensures that a U.S. national champion will remain vital, regardless of what China does.
The United States has a trade surplus with China on services. Last year, China’s giant trade surplus on goods of nearly $296 billion with the United States was offset by a service trade deficit of about $33 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Beijing has been exploring further opening the service industry as a bargaining chip for its trade negotiations. Opening up China is a beneficial strategy to Beijing as well, according to Lian.
He wrote in his article that opening up the financial market more would increase China’s “stickiness” and make it “too big to sanction.”
However, according to Sun and Lee, the tariff battle will mainly focus on the currencies, as the United States has an oversized vulnerability: its nearly $37 trillion debt.
Ramaco Resources plans to extract over 450 tons of rare earths from its 4,500-acre Brook Mine near Ranchester, Wyo., on July 11, 2025. China’s long-standing dominance in the sector, achieved through predatory practices, has enabled it to wield rare earths as a trade weapon. John Haughey/The Epoch Times
Defending Dollar Supremacy
Currently, the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency and the primary currency used in international trade allows the United States to borrow more at a lower interest rate.
The U.S. debt level is so high now that the annual interest payment surpasses the nation’s defense spending.
In fiscal year 2024, which ended on Sept. 30, 2024, the United States spent $882 billion on interest on its debt, compared with $874 billion on defense expenses, according to the Treasury Department.
That makes the U.S. dollar’s role even more crucial because any diminishing or significant doubt of the currency could lead to the nation’s default.
China holds $756 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, according to the Department of the Treasury, which collects the data through U.S.-based brokers. Hong Kong has an additional $253 billion.
Still, Sun believes that China is the top U.S. Treasury bond holder in the world—surpassing Japan’s $1.1 trillion—because of the unknown amounts that Beijing purchases through European institutions.
An April report by J.P. Morgan Chase states that, contrary to common belief, “China has not reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasurys; the holdings are just more under cover,” according to a translation of the original Chinese text.
So Beijing could potentially sell off U.S. Treasurys at a crucial moment when the market loses confidence in the U.S. dollar and force the interest rate to increase if no buyers can take in China’s dumping.
If the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar is shaken, it could also lead to the weakening of Washington’s borrowing power.
The CCP is aware of this and has been working for years to replace the U.S. dollar with the yuan.
In 2015, Beijing launched its own Cross-border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, for transactions in Chinese yuan. Although CIPS is not comparable to the U.S. dollar-denominated global payment system—called the Clearing House Interbank Payment System, or CHIPS—in terms of scale and global reach, it’s getting bigger.
A woman walks past the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing on July 9, 2024. The central bank recently warned that traditional cross-border payment systems risk being “politicized” and “weaponized” amid rising geopolitical tensions. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images
Each month, the financial transaction volume through CIPS is approximately 700 billion yuan, nearly double the amount in 2021, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). That scale is still trivial compared with the $1.8 trillion in daily transactions, or more than $50 trillion in monthly transactions, through CHIPS, according to its official website. And CIPS still largely relies on the U.S.-led SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, to send payment messages, according to the PIIE.
The CCP also took notice that the digital currency world offers a new field for competition, and in 2022, China introduced its digital yuan.
The current situation calls for the United States to find more non-China parties to hold U.S. debt and defend its reserve currency status in both the physical and virtual worlds, according to Sun.
He said a type of cryptocurrency referred to as “stablecoins” are a “creative” response to the challenge.
“Stablecoins can theoretically enable unlimited purchase of U.S. Treasurys,” he said. “The sky is the limit.”
Stablecoins are digital money pegged to a fiat currency at a one-to-one ratio. The issuers guarantee holders that they can convert the money back at any time. Therefore, stablecoins can provide the decentralization and cost-effectiveness of digital money, combined with the stability of a traditional fiat currency.
So far, 98 percent of stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar, and 80 percent are issued outside the United States, according to the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. Owners can bypass banks and even the unreliable currencies of their home country. For example, a coffee shop in Argentina or a small business owner in Vietnam can do business in the digital currencies directly pegged to the greenback.
Last year, the transaction volume via stablecoins reached $27.6 trillion, 7.7 percent more than the combined transaction volume of Visa and Mastercard, according to crypto exchange CEX.io.
Signage of the Chinese digital currency is seen near a coffee store in the New Actuation Fintech Center in Beijing on Feb. 17, 2022. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images
Stablecoin issuers generate revenue by investing the dollars that they receive in exchange for the digital tokens, and they have already emerged as a significant holder of U.S. debt. They hold more than $120 billion in Treasury bills and are poised to hold more than $1 trillion in Treasurys by 2028, according to an April report by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. This means that stablecoin issuers may become the largest holders of Treasury bills, over China and Japan.
Two months ago, Hong Kong passed stablecoin legislation, although it hasn’t issued its own stablecoins yet. Chinese conglomerates, such as Ant Group and JD.com, Inc., have announced that they will submit their applications to become issuers as soon as the legislation takes effect on Aug. 1, according to China’s state-run media.
The U.S. Congress on July 17 passed a landmark crypto bill that establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers. The GENIUS Act, signed into law the next day, requires stablecoin issuers to back the digital tokens with either cash or U.S. Treasury bonds.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in June posted on X that “stablecoins can reinforce dollar supremacy.”
By leveraging stablecoins, the U.S. dollar has extended its dominance from the physical to the virtual world and found more buyers of U.S. debt at a collective level comparable to China and Japan, according to Sun, who called the strategy “a genius move.”
end
CHINA/RUSSIA
Chinese Drone Engines Labeled As “Cooling Units” Sent To Russia Via Covert Supply Chain
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Western intelligence analysts, through forensic supply chain tracking, have confirmed to Reuters that Russian defense firm IEMZ Kupol has successfully bypassed EU and U.S. sanctions through a network of mysterious front companies established to funnel dual-use drone components from China into Russia.
According to the report, Chinese-made drone engines, such as the L550E, a four-stroke, air-cooled, horizontally opposed piston engine originally produced by Xiamen Limbach Aviation, were falsely labeled as “industrial refrigeration units” to evade Western sanctions and shipped via the Chinese firm Beijing Xichao International Technology to IEMZ Kupol.
The shipments enabled IEMZ Kupol to increase production of its long-range precision strike drone, known as the “Garpiya-A1.”
Reuters cited an internal IEMZ Kupol memo that showed it signed a series production contract with the Russian Defence Ministry for 6,000 Garpiya-A1s this year.
More color from the report:
In September, Reuters reported that Kupol was producing the Garpiya using Chinese technology, including L550E engines made by Xiamen Limbach Aviation Engine Co. A month after the Reuters’ report, the European Union and the U.S. sanctioned several companies involved in producing the drones, including Xiamen.
In the wake of the sanctions, a new Chinese firm called Beijing Xichao International Technology and Trade has started supplying the L550E engines to Kupol, according to invoices, a Kupol internal letter and transportation documents reviewed by Reuters.
The increase in production of Garpiya as well as the new intermediaries supplying parts for the drones are reported by Reuters for the first time.
Last week, Russian state media broadcast for the first time a new massive drone production facility in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, where Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones, rebranded by Russia as the Geran-2, are being manufactured.
A separate report from Bloomberg earlier this month mapped out Russian firm Aero-HIT’s supply chain that extends deep into China.
The reason Western corporate media is focused on these stories is likely due to an urgent push to pressure Western leaders to impose even more sanctions on Russia, and potentially rein in China, in an effort to disrupt the Russia-China drone supply chain that continues to fuel Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
Related:
- Unmasking Russia-China Kamikaze Drone Supply Chain In One Map
- Watch: Rare Inside Look At Russia’s Secret Shahed Drone Factory
And this:
Front companies from India have also been funneling US AI chips to Russia…
So the solution is more sanctions on Russia? How’s that strategy working out, Washington?
end
CHINA USA
how stupid can they be; funding this obvious military operation: China;s CATL
(Fredly/EpochTimes)
JPMorgan, Bank Of America Subpoenaed Over IPO Of China’s CATL
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 11:45 AM
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has issued subpoenas to JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, requiring the banks to provide documents related to their roles in the initial public offering (IPO) of Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL).
In a July 24 statement, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the committee, said CATL is “a key player in China’s military-civil fusion strategy,” which poses risks to U.S. investors and the national security of the United States.
Moolenaar said the committee had requested the banks to provide all documents related to their roles in underwriting CATL’s IPO in April but has yet to receive all the required information.
Bank of America produced 10 documents, nine of which are publicly available, and JPMorgan provided only one public document in response to that request, according to his statement.
“We asked for answers months ago. They stonewalled. Wall Street shouldn’t be underwriting Chinese military companies—and the American people deserve transparency,” Moolenaar stated.
He urged JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan to comply with the subpoenas and provide the congressional panel with all required documents by Aug. 8.
JPMorgan has declined to comment. The Bank of America stated that it would engage with the House select committee on the matter.
“We’ve had constructive engagement with the committee and will continue to engage,” a Bank of America representative said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.
CATL was designated by the Department of Defense as a Chinese military company in January.
The company has rejected the designation and said it is “not engaged in any military-related activities.”
“It does not restrict CATL from conducting business with entities other than DoD and is expected to have no substantially adverse impact on our business,” CATL said in a Jan. 7 statement.
The Chinese battery manufacturer said it would engage with the Department of Defense (DOD) and may pursue legal action to challenge the designation if necessary.
In April, the committee urged JPMorgan and the Bank of America to withdraw from their roles in CATL’s IPO, warning that their involvement in the company’s listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange could directly support the Chinese Communist Party’s military buildup and human rights abuses against the Uyghur minority in China’s Xinjiang region.
CATL went public on the Hong Kong stock exchange on May 20, and serving as joint sponsors were Chinese companies China International Capital Corporation and China Securities International, and American companies Bank of America Securities and JPMorgan.
This marked CATL’s second listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. CATL said the IPO was of 135 million shares, which saw a 12.55 percent price increase upon opening.
The House select committee criticized the banks in an X post for backing CATL’s IPO and called on Congress to “strengthen outbound investment rules to stop U.S. capital from aiding our adversaries.”
END
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE/GAZA
IDIOT!!
France to recognize Palestinian state in September, Macron says
“The urgency today is to end the war in Gaza and to provide aid to the civilian population. Peace is possible,” Macron said.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron, July 10, 2025.(photo credit: LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 24, 2025 22:34Updated: JULY 24, 2025 23:04
France will recognize a Palestinian state, French President Emmanuel Macron wrote in an X/Twitter post on Thursday.
“True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine,” wrote Macron.
He continued, stating he would make the solemn announcement at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
JPost Videos
“The urgency today is to end the war in Gaza and to provide aid to the civilian population. Peace is possible,” he added.
Macron further stressed that, “there must be an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and massive humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza. It is also necessary to ensure the demilitarization of Hamas, secure and rebuild Gaza.”
“Finally, it is essential to build the State of Palestine, ensure its viability, and enable it, by accepting its demilitarization and fully recognizing Israel, to contribute to the security of all in the Middle East,” he said.
Leaders react to Macron’s decision
The Yesha Council – the umbrella organization representing Jewish communities in the West Bank – released a statement demanding that the Israeli government respond to the French President’s declaration of recognition of a Palestinian state by applying Israeli sovereignty to Judea and Samaria.
“The Knesset supported. Now it’s the government’s turn. The excuses are over,” the organization said.
Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Lieberman said on X, “Recognizing a Palestinian state is a reward for terrorism and encouragement for Hamas, an organization that carried out the most horrific massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. This is not justice, it is surrender to terrorism.”
Justice Minister Yariv Levin said, “French President Macron’s decision to recognize the fictitious Palestinian state is a black mark on France’s history and direct support for terrorism.”
He added, “The Land of Israel belongs to the people of Israel, and even President Macron’s declaration cannot change that. It is time to apply Israeli sovereignty to Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley. This is a response of historical justice to the shameful decision of the French President.”
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett called the decision a “moral collapse.
“It rewards mass murder and tells Islamist terrorists: kill Jews, and the world will hand you a state. This shameful decision will be tossed into the dustbin of history.”
This is a developing story.
end
France Will Recognize Palestinian State – US-Israeli Backlash Ensues
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 11:20 AM
In what may prove to be a major milestone in the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict, France will recognize Palestine as an independent state at the September United Nations General Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron announced late Thursday. While a majority of European countries and an overwhelming majority of the world’s countries already recognize Palestine, France is significant in that it’s a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and thus holds veto power. Fellow permanent members China and Russia recognize Palestine, while the UK and United States do not.
“Consistent with its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine,” Macron said in an announcement posted to X that included a letter from Macron to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He also reiterated his support for the “demilitarization of Hamas,” and said Palestine must accept “its demilitarization and fully recogniz[e] Israel.” However, his statement didn’t convey that his September recognition would hinge on those factors.
Macron’s surprise announcement prompted immediate condemnation from Israel and the United States, starting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
“We strongly condemn President Macron’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state next to Tel Aviv in the wake of the October 7 massacre. Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became. A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel.”
Netanyahu’s grievance that recognition of a Palestinian state “rewards terror” is enormously hypocritical. After all, recognition of the State of Israel came after years of terror attacks perpetrated by Zionists against not only Palestinians but British people as well. These attacks included truck– and car-bombings, massacres, and the poisoning of wells with biological agents.
Relations between Israel and France were already strained. In May, after Macron called on fellow European countries to take a less accommodating stance toward Israel’s war in Gaza if the humanitarian crisis continued, Netanyahu accused him of leading “a crusade against the Jewish state.” In his May remarks that triggered Netanyahu, Macron told fellow European leaders that “if we abandon Gaza…we will kill our credibility,” and said recognition of a Palestinian state — with conditions attached — was “not only a moral duty, but a political necessity.”
Mr. Macron, like a growing number of world leaders, has been exasperated by Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to end the war despite the fact that Gaza has largely been reduced to rubble and tens of thousands of its inhabitants killed. Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to offer any plan for the future governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza after the fighting stops has also incensed the French president and other international leaders. – New York Times
Earlier this week, amid reporting of growing hunger in Gaza, and as the number of Palestinians killed at aid distribution points exceeded 1,000, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot called on Israel to finally let foreign press into Gaza, “to show what is happening there and to bear witness.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Netanyahu in denouncing Macron, but the social media reaction was overwhelmingly against him:
Palestinian ambassador to France Hala Abou-Hassira commended Macron’s announcement of pending state recognition, saying it served notice to Israel and the United States that “One cannot continue to impose facts on the ground, facts that render a two-state solution impossible.” Many people believe the facts on the ground have already destroyed the possibility of a viable, contiguous Palestinian state. For example, the West Bank is positively riddled with Israeli settlements, and the settlers’ violent campaign to intimidate Muslim and Christian Palestinians into abandoning their homes has significantly escalated following the Oct 7 Hamas invasion of Israel.
Meanwhile, while engaging in Gaza ceasefire talks with questionable sincerity, the Netanyahu government seems bent on significantly depopulating the territory. In addition to killing almost 60,000 residents, the IDF has systematically rendered most of the territory uninhabitable, and Netanyahu is pushing for other countries to accept Palestinians who want to “voluntarily” emigrate after all two million residents are herded into the southernmost end of the strip. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is among many members of Netanyahu’s government who’ve called for Israeli control of Gaza and the establishment of Jewish settlements there. Speaking this week to a Knesset conference titled “The Gaza Riviera – From Vision to Reality,” Smotrich — one of the most powerful officials in Israel — said, “We will occupy Gaza and make it an inseparable part of the State of Israel.”
For decades, Israeli leaders gave lip-service to the idea of a two-state solution, while the settlement project steadily destroyed the viability of the concept. If nothing else, Smotrich and other members of Netanyahu’s extremist government can be lauded for their refreshing candor.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HRS
IRAN/USA
Watch: Iranian Helicopter Confronts US Destroyer Approaching Territorial Waters
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Iran has claimed it confronted and warned a US Navy destroyer to alter its course as it neared Iranian territorial waters in the Gulf of Oman.
Iranian state media released video and images from the encounter on Wednesday, which if accurate would be the first known direct confrontation between Iranian and American forces since the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June. The footage was taken from a helicopter deployed by the IRGC Navy to intercept the vessel.
Surprisingly, the Pentagon did acknowledge the encounter, and described the interaction as “professional” while saying it had no effect on its operations.
But the Iranian side described it as an act of aggression by the US military, with state television in Iran accusing the warship USS Fitzgerald of making a “provocative” move by approaching waters in Iran’s own backyard.
The video shows a helicopter flying close to the warship, with an Iranian crew member issuing a radio warning in English, demanding that the ship change course as it neared Iran’s territorial waters around 10am local time. Iranian media further characterized the event as a tense standoff.
The US vessel responded by warning it would fire on the Iranian aircraft if it did not retreat, per the claims of Iranian officials, and the vessel eventually left the area following repeated Iranian warnings. Thus Tehran is saying its Navy chased the US destroyer out of Iranian territorial waters.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has roundly rejected Iran’s version of events, instead describing in a statement the following:
“This had no effect on the USS Fitzgerald’s mission, and any claims to the contrary are misinformation from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” the official said of the exchange which occurred in international waters.
Below: watch the standoff as featured in Iranian footage:
Iran’s president just this week said his country will continue enrichment uranium for its peaceful nuclear energy program, and stands ready to take on any future potential Israeli or US attacks.
President Trump meanwhile has said he’s ready and willing to attack Iran again if it looks like the Islamic Republic is trying to reconstitute its ‘destroyed’ nuclear program.
As for the possibility of resuming talks, according to the latest in Reuters: “Iran is ready to resume nuclear talks with the United States as long as some principles are respected, deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Thursday, a day before a meeting with European powers in Istanbul.”
The statement continued: “The Iranian diplomat said talks could resume as long as Tehran’s rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty are recognized and Washington builds trust with Tehran and guarantees that negotiations will not lead to renewed military action against Iran.”
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Netanyahu Recalls Team From Qatar As Gaza Ceasefire Talks Collapse Again
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025 – 08:30 PM
There were never high expectations, except perhaps in White House public statements, but now Israeli media is confirming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recalled his negotiating team from Qatar as Gaza ceasefire talks have floundered.
This should come as no surprise, given that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have recently announced an expansion of ground operations in Gaza, and into the central part of the Strip. This also comes as scores of Palestinians are killed daily, with in some instances shootings happening while large groups rush aid stations.
According to two of the latest updates via the Times of Israel:
- Hamas source says counteroffer includes clause preventing resumption of war even if no deal by end of truce
- Minister says government pushing to wipe out Strip, make it completely Jewish
Prior to the Israeli team being recalled from Doha, reports indicated that Hamas offered to trade 10 Israeli hostages for 200 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences.
Hamas further wanted some 2,000 Palestinians who have been detained since the war’s start to be included in the prisoner swap.
Israel reportedly pushed for a 2-kilometer demilitarized buffer inside the Strip, while Hamas is said to have countered with one kilometer. All of this may be moot from the start, given much more land mass has already been utterly destroyed, and Israel is believed to be paving the way for eventual new settlements.
Times of Israel is further reporting, citing a source privy to negotiations, that US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff shares Israel’s view that Hamas’s recent proposal is insufficient and won’t get the warring sides to the goal line.
In Israel, the families of the hostage victims are going to be further outraged at what they see as another opportunity to get their loved ones home pass by.
Netanyahu has clearly prioritized the defeat of Hamas, however, to ensure it can never rule Gaza again. And so he has refused to contemplate anything less than a military solution, apparently.
END
ISRAEL //HAMAS
Hamas gambles with Gaza’s future, leaving Israel with the blame
NATIONAL AFFAIRS: How international condemnation of Israel gives Hamas hope and a reason to keep dragging its feet.
Some Gazans reportedly are going days without food. Hamas could end their misery immediately by agreeing to a ceasefire deal that’s on the table, but has yet to. Here, people make their way along al-Rashid street in western Jabalya on Tuesday, toward trucks carrying humanitarian aid.(photo credit: OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images)ByHERB KEINONJULY 25, 2025 09:55
Imagine that you are in control of a piece of territory and your people are suffering terribly and facing a hunger crisis.
Now imagine there’s an agreement on the table with your enemy that would halt the fighting for 60 days and significantly ease that hardship. The deal even includes meaningful concessions from the other side.
What would you do?
This is not some theoretical exercise. It’s the very real situation currently facing Hamas. Its people are in anguish, and, according to various reports this week that cannot be dismissed as mere propaganda, some are going days without food. They claw at one another to reach distribution sites where food is being handed out.
Hamas could end this misery immediately by agreeing to a ceasefire deal that’s on the table. But it hasn’t.
Instead, as hunger deepens, Hamas delays. It dithers over clauses, sends out positive signals only to later walk them back. It acts as though it’s negotiating the purchase of a house, where another day, another week, another month doesn’t really matter.
But this isn’t about a house – it’s about a deal that could relieve the unbearable conditions of the very people Hamas claims to represent. Not to mention bringing an end to the torture of the hostages it continues to hold.
And yet, what does Hamas do? It balks. It haggles. It stalls.
And the longer it delays, the more the spotlight shifts – not toward Hamas, but toward Israel. Around the world, television screens fill with images of malnourished Gaza babies and desperate crowds fighting over sacks of flour.
So what does the world do in response? It places nearly all the blame and responsibility on Israel, as though Hamas has nothing to do with the dire food shortages.
And in so doing, the international community only prolongs the suffering. Because each angry UN condemnation, each news report that shows scenes of devastation without critical context, each harsh statement from Western democracies, gives Hamas oxygen. And with that oxygen, Hamas calculates that by dragging this out longer – by letting the death toll tick higher and the images get grimmer – the world will eventually force Israel’s hand.
IN A RATIONAL world, Hamas would be the one scrambling to end the war, grabbing any deal on the table to spare its people further misery. But this is not a rational world. And what we saw again this week is the latest iteration of a grim and all too familiar pattern.
There’s a flurry of talk about progress in the negotiations. The world, and some in Israel itself, ramps up pressure… on Israel. Hamas balks. And we’re back to square one.
For the past three weeks, starting with the lead-up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington, there has been chatter about a breakthrough. US President Donald Trump himself fanned the optimism, saying on June 27, “I think it’s close… we think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire,” and again on July 16, “We have good news on Gaza.”
Yet that good news keeps getting pushed off, day after day, week after week.
Some countries are well-meaning, others are driven increasingly by anti-Israel bias
And then, other countries come in. Some – let’s give Canada and Italy the benefit of the doubt – well-meaning. Others, like Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia, driven by their governments’ unceasingly anti-Israel bias. And what do they do? They issue one-sided statements condemning Israel. Hamas? Barely a mention. Israel? Condemned outright and responsible for everything.
“The suffering of civilians in Gaza has reached new depths,” declared the foreign ministers of 29 Western countries this week. “The Israeli government’s aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability, and deprives Gazans of human dignity. We condemn the drip-feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians, including children, seeking to meet their most basic needs of water and food. It is horrifying that over 800 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid. The Israeli government’s denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population is unacceptable. Israel must comply with its obligations under international humanitarian law.”
Nothing at all about Hamas’s responsibility for any of this, beyond a call on the terrorist organization to immediately and unilaterally release hostages. Nothing about Hamas’s role in the death of Palestinians seeking aid, because it wants to thwart any aid delivery mechanism not under its control. There is a call to resume the humanitarian assistance through “the UN and humanitarian NGOs,” without as much as a word about how Hamas has hijacked aid through those agencies to remain in power.
And then, of course, there is the pledge of allegiance to a two-state solution and the obligatory condemnation of settlements and “settler violence,” with no word, of course, of Palestinian violence in Judea and Samaria.
It’s almost as if they don’t care whether Hamas remains in power.
Twenty of the European Union’s 27 countries, as well as several non-EU countries, including Canada, Australia, Japan, and Switzerland, signed the statement. It is worth noting the seven EU countries that did not sign, composing the roster of Israel’s most reliable friends in Europe today: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.
HAMAS, NO fool, saw an opportunity and seized it, issuing a statement praising the signatories: “Hamas welcomes the international statement calling for ending war on Gaza and condemning Israel starvation policy.”
Of course it does. The statement is a gift. It gives Hamas a lifeline, a reason to keep holding out.
This pattern is not new. Just two months ago, a similar statement – this time from Canada, the UK, and France, threatening sanctions against Israel – coincided with sensitive negotiations and was quickly lauded by Hamas. Once again, one-sided international condemnation of Israel gave Hamas a reason to stall.
Today, with negotiations at another critical juncture, history repeats itself: as soon as diplomatic progress seems possible, a wave of external pressure targets Israel, Hamas publicly celebrates, and the incentive for it to compromise disappears. The underlying dynamic is the same – international actors, whether intentionally or not, are providing Hamas both political cover and motivation to prolong the conflict.
US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, who took Israel to task three times last week – once having to do with an American-Palestinian killed in Samaria, another about visa policy for Christian immigrants, and a third about the burning of a church that never happened – responded to the statement this way: “Disgusting! 25 nations put pressure on @Israel instead of savages of Hamas! Gaza suffers for 1 reason: Hamas rejects EVERY proposal. Blaming Israel is irrational.”
But his message barely registered. Ask most Israelis, and they’ll recall Huckabee’s sharp criticism of Israel – that made news. But ask if they heard about his post on X defending Israel and condemning Hamas, or the one supporting Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s point that anyone getting praise from Hamas is “in the wrong place,” and the likely answer will be no.
BUT LEAVE Huckabee aside. His sympathies are known. Instead, listen to Brett McGurk – the Biden administration’s former National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and one of its top hostage deal negotiators. Speaking last week at the Aspen Security Forum, McGurk said: “History is being rewritten by people who weren’t involved in it.”
McGurk then recalled a Gaza deal nearly reached in May 2024.
“On May 7, there was a deal on the table that gave Hamas 85% of everything it wanted that could have stopped the war the next day, but Hamas did not answer,” he said, until six weeks later, when it “fundamentally changed the whole thing.”
Back to the drawing board. Then on August 16, another deal was offered, this time one that “had about 95% of what Hamas wanted, and again they did not say yes, they did not answer.”
McGurk’s bottom line: “This war could have stopped at multiple times, if Hamas stopped the war and released hostages.”
And now, here we go again. “Right now there is a deal on the table to stop the war for 60 days. That’s a long time, and given where we are, I think if you stop the war for 60 days, that is the end of the war, and we are still negotiating over maps. And all the pressure comes on Israel, which I get, and I hope President Trump is putting pressure on Israel to get to a point where we can close the deal, but there’s like no pressure on Hamas.”
McGurk’s comment came just days before the statement by those 29 Western countries pressuring, of course, Israel.
Pressure on Israeli leaders also domestic
IN ALL fairness, the pressure on Israel is not only coming from the outside, it is also coming internally – from those yelling that Netanyahu doesn’t want to free the hostages, that he only wants to prolong the war for political reasons. This unrelenting pressure is coming from many of the hostage families and much of the media.
But the claim that Israel – not Hamas – is the main obstacle to a deal contradicts what key figures directly involved in the negotiations are saying. Not only in the past, but also now. And these aren’t anonymous sources with agendas; they are senior officials speaking publicly and on the record.
People like Biden’s former NSC spokesman John Kirby and former secretary of state Antony Blinken, who have placed the blame squarely on Hamas.
In a January parting interview with The New York Times, Blinken was asked whether Netanyahu blocked a ceasefire last July that could have led to the hostages’ release. His reply: “No, that’s not accurate. What we’ve seen time and again is Hamas not concluding a deal that it should have concluded.”
Only now, as the latest round of talks falters, has some of the Israeli media begun to shift, placing more of the responsibility on Hamas.
That may be due to unmistakable signals from Washington. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Mideast envoy and chief negotiator, has been blunt. And on Wednesday, even Bishara Bahbah – the Palestinian-American businessman serving as the informal envoy between Hamas, Qatar, and the US – called out Hamas on social media:
“For days, the mediators have been waiting for a response from Hamas, while the procrastination continues, costing the Palestinian people dozens of victims daily,” he wrote. “Enough procrastination and continued bloodshed. Let us move forward with a deal that allows everyone to negotiate with American guarantees to reach a permanent ceasefire.”
And yet Hamas delays. The deaths mount. The images of hunger and malnutrition go viral, and the world points fingers – almost exclusively at Israel. Hamas, seeing the pressure shift in its favor, keeps playing for time.
And the grim cycle just grinds on.
END
If you want to bring the hostages home fast, then tell Hamas that they will execute their top leaders sitting in jail for massive killings for many years and serving life sentences. Give them 7 days to comply and if they do not execute one every day. Then they will release the hostages !!
Netanyahu: ‘We are considering alternative options to bring the hostages home’
Trump argued that “Hamas didn’t want to make a deal” in a statement to the press at the White House.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits at the scene where a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit and caused damage at the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, June 20, 2025.(photo credit: ITAI RON/POOL)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 25, 2025 16:00Updated: JULY 25, 2025 17:50
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel and the US are considering alternative options for bringing the hostages home in a Friday statement, agreeing with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff that Hamas is the obstacle to a hostage deal.
“Hamas is the obstacle to a hostage release deal. Together with our US allies, we are now considering alternative options to bring our hostages home, end Hamas’s terror rule, and secure lasting peace for Israel and our region,” he said.
US President Donald Trump also commented on the ceasefire negotiations situation, arguing that “Hamas didn’t want to make a deal.”
Trump made the comments to reporters at the White House one day after Witkoff said the Trump administration had decided to bring its negotiating team home for consultations following Hamas’ latest proposal.
Netanyahu’s statement followed the Israeli delegation’s decision to return to Israel early on Thursday morning for consultations, after over two weeks of high-stakes negotiations in Doha.
US is not happy with the Hamas proposal
The Israeli negotiating team will continue consultations on the ceasefire proposal in Israel, in light of Hamas’s response on Thursday morning, the Prime Minister’s Office said.
Witkoff commented, “We have decided to bring our team home from Doha for consultations after the latest response from Hamas, which clearly shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.
“While the mediators have made a great effort, Hamas does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith. We will now consider alternative options to bring the hostages home and try to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza.
“It is a shame that Hamas has acted in this selfish way. We are resolute in seeking an end to this conflict and a permanent peace in Gaza,” Witkoff concluded.
Minister’s reaction to Netanyahu’s message
The news also sparked reactions from several key ministers from the current Israeli government, with the two main ones being Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Ben-Gvir, who serves as National Security Minister, called to “stop all the humanitarian aid entering Gaza” and to “totally occupy the Strip”. “This is not an alternative path – it is the main path to the secure release of the hostages and achieving victory in the war,” he said in a statement.
Smotrich, currently serving as Finance Minister, also viewed the current developments as positive. “The humiliating negotiation with the terrorists is over. Is time for total victory”, he said on a post made in his X (formerly Twitter) account.
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
END
Trump: Hamas Will Be “Hunted Down” After “Disappointing” Doha Talks Fail To Release Hostages
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 03:25 PM
We reported Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recalled his negotiating team from Qatar as Gaza ceasefire talks have floundered. There were never high expectations, except perhaps in some White House public statements, and another potential chance to free the remaining hostages has come and gone.
President Trump on Friday expressed ‘disappointment’ that the remaining living and deceased captives will not be returned after the talks once again broke down.
Trump was asked by reporters before departing for Scotland about the possibility of speaking to Netanyahu or pressuring him over humanitarian aid, as widespread reports say hundreds of Palestinian deaths are happening due to rising hunger in the Gaza Strip.
“I speak to him, but I can’t tell you what I speak to him about,” Trump responded. “I told you when you get down to those last 20 hostages… It’s going to be very hard for Hamas to make a deal because they lose their shield, they lose their cover. We got a lot of them out.”
The statements came close to appearing to accept that no other hostages will be released. “It’s sort of disappointing,” Trump acknowledged.
Earlier this month the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced an expansion of ground operations in Gaza, and into the central part of the Strip. This also comes as scores of Palestinians are killed daily, with in some instances shootings happening while large groups rush aid stations.
It has long been clear that Netanyahu is seeking a final military solution, and wants the total eradication of Hamas. But hostage victims’ families are outraged, and have been demonstrating in Tel Aviv almost daily.
Trump further commented on the $30 million that the US recently allocated to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation:
“We hope the money gets there because that money gets taken, the food gets taken,” Trump says, adding that the US will still give more money. He claims that the majority of aid for Gaza comes from the US and that “no other country other than us gives anything.”
Ultimately, Trump’s fresh comments appear to back Netanyahu in his goal of the total military defeat of Hamas. He underscored the Israelis “are gonna have to fight and they are gonna have to clean it up — you will have to get rid [of Hamas].”
“Now they are going to be hunted down,” Trump then declared, in one of the firmest statements to date backing the Netanyahu war-time strategy.
But something which has gone largely under-reported is the IDF has suffered a steady trickle of casualties on a weekly basis. There are likely still thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of Hamas and Islamic Jihad insurgents operating from the miles of tunnels underneath Gaza. They can ambush Israeli patrols in small teams, as has been amply documented in harrowing battlefield videos showing tanks and armored carriers blown up.
ISRAEL VS IRAN/TURKEY
Turkey Showcases New Hypersonic Weapon Amid Standoff With Israel Over Syria
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Turkey this week unveiled a range of ballistic missiles and other advanced ordnance at a national arms fair, as the recent Israel-Iran conflict has pushed regional tensions to the brink. Turkish defense manufacturer Roketsan showcased several new systems, including air-to-air missiles, ballistic missiles, and a hypersonic weapon.
While Ankara has been producing Tayfun-type ballistic missiles for some time, the latest variant, known as the Tayfun Block 4, is notable for its hypersonic capabilities. Weighing 7.2 tonnes and measuring 10 metres in length, the missile is estimated to have a range of 1,000 kilometers.
The unveiling of the Tayfun Block 4 has generated significant media attention, especially as Iran’s use of ballistic and hypersonic missiles against Israel remains under close scrutiny across the region.
Despite Iran’s vulnerable air defenses, it has effectively employed such weapons to strike deep into Israel, including targets in Tel Aviv.
“In today’s modern battlefield, the importance of hypersonic ballistic missiles has become abundantly clear, as recent events have shown,” said Murat Ikinci, general manager of Roketsan, at the International Defence Industry Fair (IDEF) on Tuesday. He added that the new missile would serve as a force multiplier for the Turkish military.
Haluk Gorgun, president of Turkey’s Defence Industry Agency, told reporters that several additional missile and hypersonic weapon projects are under way and will be unveiled to the public in due course.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in June that Turkey would strengthen its deterrence by increasing its stockpile of medium- and long-range missiles. In January, Erdogan announced that Ankara had successfully developed a new missile called Cenk, with a 2,000-kilometre range, intended for use in Turkey’s space programme.
New range of weapons
At the defense fair, Roketsan also introduced the 300 ER air-launched missile, capable of striking targets over 500 kilometers away when deployed from platforms such as fighter jets and drones.
During recent hostilities, Israel is believed to have used similar missiles to strike targets near the Iraqi border from a safe distance.
Meanwhile, the United States has deployed its own bunker buster munition, the GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, in strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.
Additionally, Roketsan unveiled the development of the Simsek-2 satellite launch vehicle, an advanced two-stage, liquid-fuelled system capable of carrying a 1.5-tonne payload to an orbit above 700 kilometres. This marks a significant milestone in Turkey’s space technology ambitions.
Turkey’s Ministry of Defense R&D division also highlighted its latest generation of penetrating munitions, known as NEB. Nilufer Kuzulu, director of the R&D division, explained that the warheads have remained largely out of public view until now, due to the lengthy processes of completion, certification and qualification, following 12 years of development.
“We conducted firing tests against concrete blocks reinforced with C50-grade concrete and 22-millimetre ribbed steel. The NEB we produced penetrated 7 metres into the target,” Kuzulu said.
“Afterward, the main core continued through additional 1.5-tonne concrete blocks and exited, reaching all the way to the sandpit – an extremely challenging accomplishment.”
Kuzulu added that the bunker-buster bomb was subsequently tested in an air-drop scenario. “In this test, our product advanced about 90 meters through a rocky area and even shattered the far side of the rocks,” he said.
END
SYRIA/USA
US Raid Takes Out Senior ISIS Leader In Northern Syria
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 12:45 PM
It’s 2025, a ‘former’ emissary of the Islamic State’s top leadership is now president of Syria – who happens to also be the founder of al Qaeda in Syria (al-Nusrah Front, since rebranded the ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/HTS) – and the United States is still claiming that its occupying forces are busy fighting ISIS across various parts of the country.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Friday says a raid in the Aleppo region took out senior ISIS Leader Dhiya’ Zawba Muslih al-Hardani and his two adult ISIS-affiliated sons, Abdallah Dhiya al-Hardani and Abd al-Rahman Dhiya Zawba al-Hardani.
It happened in the early morning hours in al-Bab, Aleppo Governate, as the ISIS individuals were described as posing a threat to “US and Coalition Forces, as well as the new Syrian Government.”
The announcement also mentioned the presence of civilians at the location of the raid. The statement indicated that “Three women and three children were also on the target and were unharmed.”
“We will continue to relentlessly pursue ISIS terrorists wherever they operate. ISIS terrorists are not safe where they sleep, where they operate, and where they hide. Alongside our partners and allies, U.S. Central Command is committed to the enduring defeat of ISIS terrorists that threaten the region, our allies, and our homeland,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla.
It remains that the US-backed government in Damascus literally has high and mid-level officials who previously were members of ISIS.
Ruling HTS fighters also continue to be regularly photographed and filmed wearing ISIS patches. From the start of the war in Syria over a decade ago, the assortment of global jihadists in Syria have merged, coordinated, and have passed among different groups, from the FSA to Nusra Front to ISIS, and everything in between.
The West and Gulf states still deemed them ‘moderate’ – and funneled hundreds of millions of dollars in weapons to these jihadists as part of the long-running effort to topple Assad.
US Special Forces now directly ‘coordinating’ with AQ-affiliated HTS troops?
The ‘counter-ISIS’ campaign has been perpetually used by Washington to justify its ‘forever war’ occupation of Syrian soil, especially of valuable oil and gas sites.
And yet the real mission was always more about countering Iran and pressuring the secular Assad government. Now with Assad having fled last December, Syria is becoming a fanatical, sectarian, Jihadi-ruled nightmare.
ISRAEL/GREECE
I guess that the Greeks have short memories that Israel found the major oil gas fields off Haifa and that
find headed right onto Greek sovereignty. Then Israel came to Greece’s aid when Turkey wanted to usurp that find. Go figure!!
(zerohedge)
Greeks Grow Unfriendly To Israeli Tourists, Ships As Gaza War Grinds On
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Though Greece is a highly popular international tourist destination for Israelis, the popularity of Israeli tourists is declining in Greece as Israel continues a war on Gaza marked by unusually high civilian casualties, imposed hunger, and the systematic and sweeping destruction of infrastructure. In addition to a string of incidents in which Greeks are verbally and physically clashing with Israeli tourists, protesters are targeting commercial ships seen as supplying Israel’s war on Gaza.
The most widespread indication of Greeks giving Israelis a cold shoulder comes via signs and posters cropping up in tourist destinations. In addition to being mounted on utility poles, they’re also appearing in the front windows of some businesses. A few samples of the messaging:
- “All Israeli soldiers are war criminals. Occupiers, rapists, murderers. We don’t want you here!”
- “Israeli soldiers, you went on vacation but you will not escape the guilt. The beaches of Greece will not wash the blood off your hands”
- “Israeli soldiers, colonizers, you are not welcome.”
Where personal confrontations are concerned, it’s not always clear who’s been initiating the hostilities. In the latest incident, a group of around 20 Israeli teenagers clashed with 10 to 30 Greeks on the popular island of Rhodes around 3 or 4 am on Tuesday. According to the Israelis’ accounts published in Hebrew media and shared on social media, anti-Israel demonstrators gathered outside a club the Israelis were patronizing. When the Israelis decided to leave the club, a Greek pretending to support Israel asked if they were Israelis. When they confirmed they were, the Greek summoned dozens of comrades who chased them down, kicking one of them. “I’ve never been so afraid in my life. We just wanted to go to a club to have fun, and suddenly people with knives were chasing us,” said a teen named Friedman.
However, Greek newspaper Dimokratiki provides a far different account. Citing witness statements, video footage and other information, the paper reports that Hellenic Police say the fracas began when the Israelis started shouting pro-Israel slogans, which led to the Greeks calling them “murderers” and countering with pro-Palestinian chants. Police identified nine Israelis who were involved, and all of them were said to have departed by plane later the same morning. Authorities gave no confirmation of any assaults taking place.
Whatever exactly took place in Rhodes this week, there are ample indications that some Greeks are less than enthused to see Israelis vacationing among them as the death toll of Israeli’s war in Gaza passes 59,000, with hunger, malnutrition and starvation becoming a rising menace.
On Tuesday, a cruise ship loaded with Israeli tourists departed the Greek island of Syros after giving up on trying to disembark its 1,700 passengers. Operated by Israeli company Mano Cruise, the Crown Iris, had been met at its dock by protesters waving Palestinian flags and displaying a banner reading STOP THE GENOCIDE. “The management of Mano Cruise has decided in light of the situation in the city of Syros to now sail to another tourist destination,” the company said in a statement. A Greek government spokesperson called the incident “outrageous.”
Last month, an Israeli tourist recorded himself being pursued and berated by pro-Palestine protesters. “One of them asked if I was from Israel,” 35-year-old Meidah Hozeh told Ynet. “I said ‘yes’ and kept walking, but he started yelling, ‘Fuck Israel, fuck Zionists’. I responded, ‘Fuck you, fuck Palestine,’ and tried to walk away. Then they started chasing me.” He fled to a cafe restroom and later posted this video:
Earlier this month, protesters were joined by port union workers in blocking the unloading of the Ever Golden, a cargo ship said to have been carrying India-produced steel destined for military use in Israel. “We will not allow the port to become a logistics hub for the transfer of war equipment. Our goal is to physically prevent the unloading of this cargo,” said union boss Markos Bekris.
A more precise targeting of vacationing Israelis — IDF soldiers in particular — has been taking place in various countries around the world. In an effort led by the Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF), IDF soldiers accused of committing war crimes in Gaza are being reported to local authorities as suspected war criminals under international law. At the start of the year, a Brazilian judge ordered an investigation of a visiting IDF soldier who’d posted on social media about his unit’s mass-demolition of Palestinian residences. He managed to flee the country.
Earlier this week in Belgium, a soldier and a companion attending the Tomorrowland music festival in Antwerp were detained and questioned by police on the basis of the soldier’s documented service in the Givati Brigade, a unit “extensively documented for its role in the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure in Gaza and for carrying out mass atrocities against the Palestinian population,” HRF alleged.
SYRIA
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
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EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
(COURTESY BAS VAN GEFFEN)
Creative Accounting
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 11:00 AM
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
The ECB left the deposit rate at 2.00% yesterday. That had been widely expected, especially with little new clarity on the trade disputes with the US. Yet, the decision to hold wasn’t entirely driven by “fear” for US tariffs. President Lagarde noted that uncertainty remains unusually high, but she nonetheless seemed to express a little bit more confidence in the central bank’s medium-term outlook.
Asked about the risks of undershooting the inflation target, the ECB president recalled that the central bank actually forecasts below-target inflation in 2026. But Lagarde added that this was due to all sorts of base effects, and she stressed that “we are not going to be moved by some minor deviation.” So, Lagarde seemed to indicate what we said prior to the meeting: Another rate cut requires a material deterioration of the medium-term outlook, or at the very least a substantial increase in the downside risks.
And there is fresh hope that downside risks may actually lessen in the coming days. Earlier this week, European officials suggested that they are closing in on a trade deal with the US. Yesterday, President Trump also indicated that “talks with the EU are going pretty well.”
Reportedly, a 15% tariff is now being discussed by both parties. That would be a somewhat higher rate than the ECB’s baseline scenario. However, compared to a 10% rate, a 15% tariff would not be extremely distortionary for the economy. However, a trade deal would substantially reduce the uncertainty about trade policy, and such an improvement in sentiment could actually outweigh the negative direct effects of a somewhat higher-than-expected tariff.
In other words, don’t call the ECB’s decision to hold rates steady a pause; it may very well mark the end of the cutting cycle. Indeed, after the meeting, Bloomberg reported that a hold looks to be the baseline for September as well, and that “the onus is on those seeking further easing to justify their stance.”
The shift in tone weighed on money market pricing. Euribor futures fell, and the €STR curve now prices less than 20% chance of a rate cut in September, down from 45% prior to the ECB’s press conference. In fact, the curve is no longer fully priced for another rate cut.
Of course, another cut cannot be ruled out entirely. Next to a potential escalation of trade tensions, a substantial appreciation of the euro could still be a reason for the ECB to cut again. However, Lagarde did not sound as concerned by the recent strength of the currency as some of her colleagues.
Reassuringly, that arguably also lessens the threat to central bank independence. Powell has so far resisted Trump’s continuing attacks, but our US strategist concludes that Trump has already gained a foothold in the FOMC. If the Fed were to follow President Trump’s directions and cut rates sharply, that could push EUR/USD higher – we still target 1.20 on a 12-month horizon. An ECB that is not overly sensitive to such exchange rate moves, lessens the risk that Trump could effectively capture part of ECB policy too.
Besides, with the ECB now on hold, the US president may need to find a new peer to compare the Fed to: he can no longer complain that the Fed leaves rates unchanged while the ECB cuts further. The Bank of Japan probably won’t be a great comparable either. The trade deal between Japan and the US allows the BoJ to cautiously consider another rate hike.
This probably will not stop Trump from attacking Fed Chair Powell. The US president paid a visit to the Federal Reserve building to observe the ongoing renovations that have been the latest ammunition for shots at Powell.
During the tour, Trump surprised Powell with a higher cost estimate than the Fed’s own calculations – but that was the result of some creative accounting: the US president included a separate building, which was finished five years ago, into the total renovation bill. And, of course, the President reiterated his view that the Fed should lower rates.
Yet, despite his renewed attacks on Powell, Trump also repeated that he does not intend to fire the Fed Chair.
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
OPEC Is Playing The Long Game
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPricecom
- OPEC is pursuing a long-term strategy to increase its market share and is unwinding production cuts, with oil prices remaining strong due to factors beyond OPEC’s direct control.
- The rise in oil prices is influenced by geopolitical developments, such as U.S.-Chinese trade talks and sanctions against Russia, as well as a decline in new non-OPEC oil discoveries.
- OPEC’s approach is also aimed at restoring group cohesion among its members and capitalizes on the resilience of oil demand, even as some forecasts suggest a peak in consumption.
“There is no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” the head of OPEC, Haitham al Ghais, said last month in Canada. Demand will continue to increase as global population grows, he added. And OPEC will be there to respond with what supply is necessary. OPEC is now playing the long game.
Fast-forward a month and Reuters is reporting on “signs of strong demand more than offset the impact of a higher-than-expected OPEC+ output hike for August”, not to mention now chronic worry about Trump’s tariffs. In fact, after OPEC+ announced the bigger than expected supply boost, prices rose, not least because not everyone boosting supply was boosting it fast enough.
When OPEC+ first said they were going to start unwinding their production cuts, agreed back in 2022, reactions were varied. Some argued it was all about trying to kill U.S. shale again. Others said the Saudis, the biggest cutter, simply had no other choice any longer after the cuts failed to produce significantly higher prices. Yet others claimed OPEC in general and Saudi Arabia specifically are trying to please Trump—by hurting some of his biggest donors. OPEC itself has not endorsed any of these versions of events.
The fact remains that OPEC is reversing the cuts, boosting oil supply—but prices are not tanking as so many prominent energy analysts said they would, and are still saying they would, later this year. Of course, this is because of factors unrelated to OPEC, namely geopolitical developments such as U.S.-Chinese trade talks and Canadian wildfires, as well as yet more EU sanctions against Russia. But OPEC certainly wouldn’t mind these factors supporting prices, if not more U.S. rig additions.
OPEC is playing for market share. This is one of the most popular explanations for the group’s latest moves among analysts. After curbing production for a couple of years and surrendering market share in the process, now some of the world’s biggest producers want this market share back. This is going to take a while. Bank of America’s head of commodities research, Francisco Blanch called it a “long and shallow” price war.
“It’s not a price war that is going to be short and steep; rather it’s going to be a price war that is long and shallow,” Blanch told Bloomberg a month ago. He went on to say the target, especially for the Saudis, is U.S. shale, which has become more resilient in recent years but is still vulnerable to lower oil prices because of its higher costs.
There is also another aspect to the change in OPEC approach, as detailed by Kpler’s Amena Bakr. It’s about group cohesion, Bakr wrote in an analysis for The National. With so much non-compliance with the cuts, those that were compliant needed to have their concerns addressed, too. “To restore a sense of fairness, an orderly plan to return the barrels gradually was needed to avoid a free-for-all situation that would drown the market in supply,” Bakr explained.
OPEC doesn’t even need to try very hard this time, because geopolitics is working in its favor. Last month, prices climbed immediately on the suggestion that the U.S.-Iran talks could escalate into missile action, after the Iranian defense minister threatened strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East should the two fail to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. Congress work on fresh sanctions against Russia, targeting specifically its energy industry also served as a driver for higher prices, undeterred by EU plans to try and stop importing even petroleum products made with Russian crude, possibly in light of the EU’s track record of success with the anti-Russian sanctions.
Yet there is another factor helping OPEC stay on top: non-OPEC supply. The Financial Times reported in mid-June that the international supermajors have not made many new discoveries lately. Since 2020, new non-shale discoveries have averaged 2.5 billion barrels a year, the FT noted, citing a Goldman Sachs report. This is just 25% of the average annual in new discoveries for the three years prior to 2020. In other words, all the talk about non-OPEC swamping OPEC and taking the upper hand on international oil markets may have been a little premature—as may be the case of IEA demand projections.
The IEA has been notoriously bearish on oil demand, repeatedly citing rising EV sales, even though these sales in the U.S. are set for a serious decline. In Europe, EV sales are on the rise thanks to the return of subsidies but how long these are going to last is anyone’s guess. China is always the country everyone points to when it comes to EVs, and yet China’s oil demand is still growing—although peak talk is intensifying there as well, including from its own state oil majors.
In this situation, OPEC essentially does not need to do anything but sit and wait. Price-sensitive U.S. shale will slow down, lack of new discoveries will crimp the growth potential of the supermajors, and prices will rise, because peak demand does not mean a sharp drop afterwards. In fact, even if we have reached peak oil demand, the most likely next stage in demand evolution is a plateau at a level that would need to be maintained. OPEC would no doubt be happy to help do that.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
THAILAND/CAMBODIA
Thailand Warns Border Crisis With Cambodia “Could Escalate Into War”
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 07:45 AM
The geopolitical powder keg along the heavily disputed Thailand-Cambodia land border has been lit this week, with both countries exchanging heavy fire. Thailand’s acting leader warned on Friday that the conflict could escalate into a war.
Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters earlier, “This situation could potentially develop into a war. At present, it is still considered an armed clash involving heavy weaponry.”
The Thailand-Cambodia conflict marks some of the worst cross-border fighting in decades, with at least 15 people killed so far – mostly civilians and one soldier. As the clashes enter their second day, over 100,000 people have been evacuated from the conflict area.
On Thursday, Thai F-16 fighter jets bombed military targets (read report) in Cambodia. Both Southeast Asian nations have accused each other of starting the conflict.
For over a century, Thailand and Cambodia have disputed sovereignty claims along parts of their shared 508-mile land border. Boundary ambiguities stem from colonial-era treaties and inconsistent mapping practices dating back to the 1907 Franco-Siamese agreement. A notable 2011 skirmish lasted one week with multiple fatalities.
“The root cause of this issue lies in the lingering consequences left by Western colonialists in the past, and it now needs to be faced calmly and handled properly,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn in Beijing.
Media outlet Al Jazeera broke down how Thailand’s military stacks up against Cambodia’s in a side-by-side comparison
Latest overnight headlines from the conflict area, courtesy of Al Jazeera:
- U.S. advises citizens against travel within 50km of Thai-Cambodian border
- China’s Wang says ‘root cause’ of dispute a consequence of Western colonialism
- Thai evacuees brace for long period of uncertainty
- Thailand opting for bilateral solution, Cambodia negative: Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson
- In letter to UN, Thailand blames Cambodia for ‘firing first’
- Cambodian military says Thai forces attack seven locations
- Thailand rejects international mediation to end Cambodia fighting: Report
- More than 138,000 Thai civilians evacuated amid Cambodian border clashes
- Thailand military denies targeting UNESCO World Heritage Site in Cambodia
In markets, Thailand’s baht fell .3% to 32.29 per U.S. dollar. The baht fell to a multi-year…
“We do not expect that the border conflict to have sustained impact on the baht unless it significantly escalates,” said Alan Lau, FX strategist at Maybank.
A crucial understanding of this geopolitical powder keg is the alignment of major powers: China backs Cambodia, while the U.S. is a long-standing ally of Thailand.
So what happens if Thailand invokes its security ties with the U.S. and Cambodia does the same with China?
With U.S.-China tensions already flaring up with trade, technology, and global influence, a localized border conflict could quickly become a dangerous proxy flashpoint between the global superpowers.
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1756 UP 0.0002 PTS OR 2 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.33 UP 0.328 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3476 DOWN .0032 OR 32 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3672 UP 0.0032 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 32 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 12.07 PTS OR 0.33%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 270.71 PTS OR 1.05%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.50%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 270.71 PTS OR 1.05%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.07 PTS OR 0.33%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.50 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 370.11 PTS OR 0.88%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3353.75
silver:$39.08
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.26 UP 14 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.139% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.605% UP 0 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.326 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.598 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.730 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1726 DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.60 DOWN 0.594 OR YEN IS UP 60 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6490 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0060 OR 60 BASIS pts to 1.3701
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1683 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1676
TURKISH LIRA: 40.56 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.605
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.415% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.960 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.919 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3343.60
SILVER AT 11;00: 38.85
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 18.06 PTS OR 0.20%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 78.43 pts or 0.32%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 16.30 pts or 0.21%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 79,20 pts or 0.13%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 126.58 or 0.31%
WTI Oil price 65.86 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 68.86 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.76 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 52/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.541 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.089 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1746 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3437 DOWN .0071 OR 71 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6260 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.597 UP 0 FULL BASIS PT
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.56 UP 0.555 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3708 UP 0.0068 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 68 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 65.14
Brent OIL: 68.44
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.384
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.925%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1 PTS AT 3.915%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.523 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.072 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.39 UP 27 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.56 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.76 DOWN 0 AND 52/100 roubles
GOLD $3339.35 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 38.23 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 208.01 OR 0.47%
NASDAQ 100 UP 56.02 PTS OR 0.24%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.11 DOWN 0.28 PTS OR 1.82%
GLD: $ 307.40 DOWN 2.87 PTS OR 0.92%
SLV/ $34.66 DOWN 0.83 PTS OR OR 2.34%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 139,88 PTS OR .57%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Memes Over Momo; Retail Hammers Hedgies As Gold & Bitcoin Sink
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Yesterday and today were among the lowest range days for the S&P 500 over the past four years, but, as Goldman Sachs trading floor noted, on the flip side, market volumes remain quite active tracking to the third 20B share session of the week (and highest weekly average volume since April’s record-setting volume sessions)…
Source: Bloomberg
It was also quiet on the macro front (outside of tariff talk), with a slight lean to disappointment in the data…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Micro’ dominated most of the narratives:
EPS recap after week two: 33% of S&P market cap has now reported and so far, 62% have reported EPS beats of >1stdev (vs 48% historic avg), while 12% have reported EPS misses >1stdev (vs 13% historic avg).
Rate-cut expectations drifted lower this week…
Source: Bloomberg
It was a headline heavy day early on as Trump addressed the press pool before boarding Air Force One for Scotland, but market reactions were muted amid the summer doldrums.
More tariffs are coming and rates seem to be in line with what the president has already pre-announced.
- *TRUMP: SOME LETTERS WILL SAY 10%, 15% TARIFF RATE
- *TRUMP: MOST OF THE TRADE DEALS ARE FINISHED RIGHT NOW
- *TRUMP SAYS TARIFF LETTERS GOING OUT BY FRIDAY: POOL
- *TRUMP: WILL SEND CLOSE TO 200 TARIFF LETTERS
On Europe, Trump cast some doubt over the deal, but the overall tone was positive. The trade framework with China remains on track, too.
- *TRUMP: 50-50 CHANCE OF MAKING DEAL WITH EU
- *TRUMP: WE’RE GETTING ALONG WITH EU, VERY WELL WITH CHINA
- *TRUMP: IN PROCESS OF COMPLETING CHINA DEAL
And on Jerome Powell, the president has backed off from this threats to fire the Fed chair:
- *TRUMP SAYS FIRING POWELL UNNECESSARY, FED WILL DO RIGHT THING
- *TRUMP: POWELL TOLD ME ECONOMY IS DOING WELL
- *TRUMP SAYS POWELL IS A ‘VERY GOOD MAN’: POOL
While all the majors ended the week in the green with the S&P leading (and Small Caps and Nasdaq lagging)…
…the big picture hid the ugly reality under the hood – as meme stocks soared and momentum was clubbed like a baby seal…
Source: Bloomberg
Who could have seen that coming?
And like clockwork, momentum blew up in July https://t.co/xuNS2r4bIT pic.twitter.com/x6FmjUyyA4
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 25, 2025
Hedge funds had another tough week, with Goldman’s proxy falling to its lowest level in two years…
Source: Bloomberg
And before we leave equity-land, we note that this afternoon saw the more ‘ominous’ “Spot Up Vol Up” trade start to evolve, suggesting blowoff top is imminent…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed this week with short-end yields higher while the long-end was the biggest (price) gainer with yields down 6bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) flattened significantly this week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the week lower, despite a strong comeback the last two days…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold fell for the 3rd day in a row testing its 50DMA (marginally lower for the second week in a row)
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin also fell for the second week in a row, testing $115k at two week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum outperformed significantly on the week, extending its bounce off the 2019 lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, next week is a big one…
Source: Bloomberg
…with 37% of the SPX reports earnings including META + MSFT (Wed night) and AAPL + AMZN (Thurs night). We also get a healthy dose of macro with the FOMC on Wed and Payrolls on Friday. Additionally the 8/1 trade deal deadline also looms on Friday with Trump planning to send 200 letters to various countries between now and then…
Source: Bloomberg
…for now, global trade policy uncertainty is falling fast.
USA DATA RELEASES
Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Transports) Beat Expectations In June
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 08:44 AM
After surging higher in May, on the back of huge Boeing aircraft orders, US durable goods orders were expected to tumble back to earth in preliminary June data… and they did.
Durable Goods Orders plunged 9.3% MoM (slightly better than the -10.7% MoM expected) – the biggest drop since the COVID lockdowns. But as the chart below shows, it is a wildly noisy time series, almost entirely due to the lumpiness of aircraft orders…
Source: Bloomberg
Thanks to a swing from a 230% MoM rise to a 50% MoM decline in non-defense aircraft orders…
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding the noise of Boeing orders, the data was actually solid with a 0.25% MoM increase (better than the 0.1% rise expected) in durable goods orders (ex-Transports), pushing YoY orders uo 2.23%
Source: Bloomberg
Adding to the confusion, the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment excluding aircraft and military hardware, decreased 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 2% gain in May
Capital goods shipments rose 0.4%, excluding defense and commercial aircraft, better than the +0.2% expected, adding to Q2 GDP growth hopes.
A very mixed picture from a generally considered ‘secondary’ economic indicator… and this the market reaction is muted to say the least.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
GREAT LETTER; KEEP FOR REFERENCE!
Dear Democrats…
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 01:05 PM
Authored by Cynical Publius via American Greatness,
Dear Democrats:
Hey.
How have you been? It’s been a while. The kids doing okay? Still trying to choose their genders? How did those investments in Solyndra work out?
Listen, we know it’s been a rough 25 years. It feels like ever since that hanging chad election in 2000, we have been at each other’s throats. That Bush/Gore controversy seemed to push us both into our worst selves, and too much of what we each have come to believe this past quarter of a century has been grounded in rumor, innuendo, and straight-out media hype. We mostly blame you for this, as you control most of the media, and a one-sided media that makes money by fabricating controversy can lead the best of us down insane ratholes of disinformation: 9/11 Truthers, that Mossad agent behind that tree in your backyard, and worst of all, “Trump/Russia Collusion” (we’ll get to that).
But we have our fair share too—Birthers, Big Mikers, and the QAnon nutters, just to name a few. We can be just as crazy as you are sometimes.
What has made it worse is that a lot of us on both sides only engage with media and commentators who tell us exactly what we want to hear. You have MSNBC. We have Fox. You have Keith Olbermann. We have Alex Jones.
We get it. We really do. Who knows what to believe in a world of wholly contrary narratives where clicks mean dollars?
It is such a shame that our national dialogue has become so deeply polarized. Remember when Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill would tell jokes over more than a few glasses of scotch whisky after sparring all day over politics? We were better then, and it would be great if we could get back there somehow.
Which is why we are taking the time to write you this letter. We’re asking you to trust us, just for a bit. We’re about to tell you some cold, hard facts that speak to whether or not our nation can survive. Please just listen with an open mind. Don’t trust what CNN, Rachel Maddow, or The New Yorker have to say on what we are about to tell you, and if you doubt what we say, please go verify it yourself using primary sources. It’s just that important.
Do we have an accord?
Okay, now buckle up, Buttercups. What you are about to read is 100%, verifiably true, and we guarantee it will rock your world:
- In the 2016 presidential election, the Hillary Clinton campaign fabricated out of whole cloth a fictional “dossier” alleging that Donald Trump was an agent of the Russian Federation, complete with allegations that he paid prostitutes to urinate on a hotel bed in Moscow because Barack Obama had allegedly once slept there.
- The Clinton campaign then shared this “dossier” with intelligence and law enforcement agencies in the friendly Obama Administration (as well as with oh-so-willing media outlets), and Obama’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies officially treated that dossier as reliable intelligence even though in the classified bowels of those agencies the dossier was known to be a fabrication.
- This wholly fabricated “dossier” was then used as a legal basis for surveillance and wiretaps on members of the Trump Team before and after the 2016 election.
- After the election was over and Trump had won, the intelligence community determined that there was no material Russian interference in the election. Barack Obama directed them to reverse that finding, and the original findings of no Russian involvement were again buried in the classified basements of Langley, Virginia. (By the way, among the accurate reports that were hidden was one that stated that Russian intelligence assessed that Hillary Clinton was physically ill, mentally unstable, and was taking “heavy tranquilizers.” Funny how that never got out until now, isn’t it? If the Russians really wanted Trump and not Hillary, it seems we would have heard about this back in 2016.)
- This new, false set of contrived intelligence findings, coupled with the ongoing concerns regarding the dossier, became the basis for a concerted effort by the Obama Administration to prevent Donald Trump from ever taking office, even though the American people had just elected him. The ongoing Potemkin Villages of the dossier and the fake Russian interference findings ultimately resulted in an Intelligence Community Assessment (“ICA”) saying Russia interfered in the election to help Donald Trump. That ICA and the prior intelligence findings (but not the truthful ones) became the bases for numerous unlawful warrants on the Trump team, grotesque abuses of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, and the creation of interview traps where members of Trump’s inner circle might inadvertently incriminate themselves by making a potentially false statement to the FBI. Worst of all, the miasma of fraudulent intelligence reports and their constant leakage to compliant left-wing media sources successfully made much of the public perceive the entire Trump team as a criminal enterprise and not a validly elected presidential administration.
- With the Obama plan unable to prevent Trump from taking office, Obama’s Deep State loyalists who remained in the new Trump Administration did their very best to work towards removing Trump via scandal, with James Comey being the chief bagman via the bogus dossier and his deliberate attempts to trap President Trump in some form of actual malfeasance (all the while withholding from Trump the truth about Russian non-interference and the illicit provenance of the “dossier”).
- While everything described above was happening, it was all being leaked to the media by Obama insiders, loyalists, and operatives in an effort to discredit and cripple the Trump Administration. Often, bogus information would be fed to a media source, the source would report it, and then the fact that the media reported the bogus information was used by Democrat operatives as a basis for legitimizing it, i.e., “the wrap-up smear.”
- All of the above became such a burden on the new Trump Administration that a special counsel, Robert Mueller, was appointed to cut through to the truth. Unfortunately, Mueller was relying on the same fake dossier and bogus intelligence reports, so bogus data led to a bogus investigation that served no other purpose than to cripple the Trump Administration’s ability to govern for two years. In a comic way that can best be described as Kafkaesque, Mueller even indicted and convicted Trump’s political ally Roger Stone for “obstructing justice,” when in reality he was simply refusing to cooperate with a wholly illicit investigation built exclusively on outright lies—some “justice!”
- To summarize points #1 through #8 above, the Obama/Hillary plan had three steps: (i) spread Russia lies so Trump loses the election; (ii) if Trump wins the election, spread Russia lies so he is never inaugurated; and (iii) if he is inaugurated, spread Russia lies to cripple his ability to govern.
- After Trump lost in 2020 and he started indicating that he would run again, the Obama team, now with Joe Biden installed in the White House as a puppet, knew they could not let him win, as he would unravel what they had done, make it public, and potentially cause many of them to end up in prison. Thus, they coordinated lawfare attacks on Trump across the nation using Democrat operatives, thinking that Trump would end up in prison or his reputation would be in such tatters that he could never be elected. That backfired, bigly.
- The American people elected Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States of America on November 5, 2024.
- Beginning on July 18, 2025, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released a treasure trove of heretofore hidden, classified information, which, alongside already-public information about the fake dossier, shows conclusively that everything we say above is 100%, inarguably, reliably, factually, and objectively accurate.
We repeat, everything written above is VERIFIABLY, OBJECTIVELY TRUE. Don’t believe us? Go do your own research with an unbiased eye. We know you will eventually agree.
We know you love to say how much you “love democracy.”
Do you? Do you REALLY “love democracy?”
Because what is described above is the most extreme and outrageous attack on democracy in U.S. history.
Look, we know this is hard for you. Obama was “The Lightworker.” He brought the hope and change you craved. You were reliably informed that Trump was an evil man bent on destroying America—a criminal, a ruthless traitor determined to sell the USA down the river to Russia. You believed it all—but it was all lies.
We are sorry to have to be the ones to tell you, but in reality, Obama was the architect of the worst political scandal in U.S. history, a seditious conspiracy ruthlessly designed to overturn the lawful choice of the American electorate and treat the Constitution like so much toilet parchment. And Trump? He was the same bombastic entrepreneur turned entertainer turned politician that he always had been. Loud? Brash? Yes. But never a traitor. In the modern-day version of Orwell’s “1984” that Obama and his diabolical minions had spun, Trump became Emmanuel Goldstein: a fabricated enemy to be hated based solely on lies.
Once again, we know this is hard for you. But you cannot ignore this. While we want Obama and his traitorous entourage to see real justice, we know you, good people in the rank-and-fil,e were simply duped by your good intentions and a complicit media who desperately did not want you to know the truth.
Please consider this letter a peace offering. If you are willing to acknowledge what transpired and offer an apology to us for so eagerly believing the lies and ignoring the true conspiracy against American democracy, we might be able to begin trusting each other again, just a teeny bit.
Please consider our offer. We are all Americans, after all.
Sincerely,
MAGA America
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 25, 2025 Issue 7541 | Independent View of the News |
| Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, speaking on Thursday about the US-Japan trade deal: Trade Deal in line with Japan’s national interests – BBG 2:16 ET No discussion for securing deal implementation – BBG 2:24 ET Want US to avoid temporary spike in tariffs on Aug. 1 – BBG 2:25 ET Plane purchases (100 from Boeing) will also be based on existing plans – BBG 2:30 ET It remains to be seen when the new rates take effect – BBG Deal won’t include defense spending or a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum – BBG Japan always focused on investment in US trade talks. We have built mutual understanding, trust relationship with US over trade deal. “I am not thinking about signing a legally binding agreement at this moment.” Japan’s $550B investment will consist of equity investments, loans, and credit guarantees “The Japanese state will be putting up a fraction of the headline total… much turns on private sector” Japan will not seek legally binding agreement with US, tariff negotiator says https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_P8N3SD056:0-japan-will-not-seek-legally-binding-agreement-with-us-tariff-negotiator-says/ Japan says forex not included in trade deal with US, Kyodo reports … but a joint statement might be considered… https://www.reuters.com/business/japan-says-forex-not-included-trade-deal-with-us-kyodo-reports-2025-07-23/ Japan trade deal sparks hope for US investors, frustration for automakers On Wednesday, the European Union and United States were nearing a trade deal that would also set a 15% tariff on European imports. GM, Ford and Stellantis have been paying up to 25% on vehicles imported from Mexico or Canada, depending on how much U.S. content is in the vehicles. The companies are concerned they could soon be paying higher tariffs on vehicles assembled in Mexico or Canada than on vehicles with significantly less U.S. content made in Japan or the United Kingdom… https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/japan-trade-deal-sparks-hope-us-investors-frustration-automakers-2025-07-24/ Com Sec Lutnick (says dopey stuff): Complaints about tariff on Japan cars are ‘silly’ – BBG As expected, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2%. Lagarde Says ECB in ‘Wait-and-See’ Mode after Holding Rates – BBG 9:47 ET “We are well positioned to wait and see.” (Powell’s mantra over the past few months) @Schuldensuehner: ECB sentiment moved a bit hawkish during the presser, leading traders to scale back their expectations for rate cuts this year. Markets now anticipate only 19bps of easing for the rest of the year. https://t.co/FH8F14Zmky ESUs traded moderately higher, on Google’s results, but largely sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower at 23:46 ET. ESUs hit a low of 6393.50 at 3:48 ET. An A-B-C rally took ESUs to 6406.75 at 7:42 ET. ESUs then sank to 6391.50 at 8:45 ET on the more hawkish than expected ECB. The rally for the NYSE opened then commenced; ESUs soared to 6415.50 at 11:02 ET via a nearly vertical A-B-C rally. ESUs then fell to 6399.00 at 12:27 ET. Another A-B-C rally took ESUs to the daily high of 6418 .25 at 14:09 ET. ESUs then sank to 6399.25 at 15:58 ET. ‘Put America first’: Donald Trump warns Google and Microsoft to halt hiring in India and China Trump accused major tech firms like Google and Microsoft of capitalising on American freedoms while building factories abroad and employing foreign workers. “Many of our largest tech companies have reaped the blessings of American freedom while building their factories in China, hiring workers in India, and stashing profits in Ireland,” he said. “Under President Trump, those days are over.” https://www.livemint.com/news/india/put-america-first-trump-warns-google-microsoft-to-halt-hiring-in-india-and-china-11753357915309.html Google AI: In the past 18 months, the US tech industry has seen significant job losses, with over 170,000 workers laid off. Layoffs accelerated in early 2025, with a 35% increase compared to the previous period. This downturn is coupled with a decline in programming roles, which shrank by 27% between 2022 and 2024. Furthermore, average tech salaries have experienced a decrease of over 12% https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Over+the+past+eighteen+months%2C+more+than+170%2C000+U.S.+tech+workers+lost+their+jobs%2C+with+layoffs+rising+35%25+in+early+2025.+Programming+roles+shrank+by+27%25+between+2022+and+2024%2C+while+average+tech+salaries+dropped+over+12%25.&rlz=1C1VDKB_enUS1091US1091&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 But H-1B visas for foreign tech workers have been soaring. Trump has done a reversal from his earlier support for H-1B tech hirings. Trump says H-1B visa program is ‘great’ amid MAGA feud over tech workers Dec. 28, 2024 Trump allies, including Elon Musk, vigorously defended the program to other MAGA adherents this week… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-h1b-visa-program-maga-elon-musk-rcna185656 JD Vance Issues H1-B Visa Warning “You see some big tech companies where they’ll lay off 9,000 workers, and then they’ll apply for a bunch of overseas visas. And I sort of wonder; that doesn’t totally make sense to me. “That displacement and that math worries me a bit. And what the president has said, he said very clearly: We want the very best and the brightest to make America their home. We want them to build great companies and so forth. But I don’t want companies to fire 9,000 American workers and then to go and say, ‘We can’t find workers here in America.’… https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-issues-warning-h1-b-visa-immigration-2103296 @GlobalMktObserv: The US housing market is in shambles: US existing-home sales fell -2.7% MoM in June to 3.93 million, the lowest in 9 months and near 15-year lows. High mortgage rates continue to freeze activity. Meanwhile, the median price hit a RECORD $435,300, up 2% YoY. https://t.co/iXQswtCvKx Sales down, prices up – because PE and Hedge funds own so many homes! If Trump wants more affordable housing for the masses, his base, he should instruct Bessent to formulate legislation that would disgorge houses from Private Equity and Hedge Funds. Positive aspects of previous session Fangs/Mag 7 soared due to Google’s results and buying ahead of other Fang/Mag 7 results. Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA declined smartly; the DJTA fell modestly. Another late ESU sell off! USUs declined early. (But rallied modestly later) Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will Fang/Mag 7 buying for results create an equity top? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6368.41 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6381.31; 6360.57 Obama tries to extract himself from Russiagate, but documents put him at the heart of it The record — bolstered by newly-declassified documents — shows that Obama was a central figure at key points throughout the Russiagate saga. Obama was briefed on “Clinton Plan intelligence” which indicated Clinton was seeking to falsely link Trump to Russia to distract from her own classified email server scandal, but the FBI launched “Crossfire Hurricane” later in July 2016 anyway. https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/obama-tries-distance-himself-russiagate-clear-evidence-puts-him-heart-it @DonMiami3: Nasdaq P/E (41.22) – Trump got his second ATH https://t.co/tSZdvZCFSB Fed Balance Sheet: -$1.558B; Reserves: -$36.545B Trump Says Not Necessary to Fire Powell After Getting Fed Tour – BBG 18:01 ET “His term comes up soon. I think he’s going to do the right thing. Everybody knows that the right thing.” Today – After an early rally on Google’s results and general bullishness, the S&P 500 Index traded sideways, in a 21-handle range, for the entire session. Plus, the S&P 500 Index closed below its opening. Traders will play for the Friday Rally, but traders have been too jiggy. This is why there has been an increasingly number of late ESU declines. If stocks are strong early and/or at midday, be alert for a late selloff. The only thing keeping stocks buoyant: 1) Some institutional value buying; and the usual suspects pigging out on Fangs/Mag 7 for the earnings season rally. Expected Economic Data: June Durable Goods -10.5% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.1%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.1%, Shipments 0.2% Expected Impact Earnings: PSX 1.72, HCA 6.28, AON 3.40, ESUs are +12.50; NQUs are +41.25; USUs are +4/32; and gold is +0.20 at 20:17 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6069; 100-day MA: 5810; 150-day MA: 5874; 200-day MA: 5880 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,154; 100-day MA: 42,107; 150-day MA: 42,623; 200-day MA: 42,807 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6358.91 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5668.57 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6269.86 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6349.60 triggers a sell signal @mazemoore: When Obama’s personal chef drowned while paddle boarding near their property, ABC News reported that the Obama’s weren’t in Martha’s Vineyard when it happened. NBC News reported that the Obama’s weren’t home. CBS News reported that the Obama’s weren’t staying at the house. Turns out Obama was on the scene shortly after the man went missing. Luckily for Obama, those news outlets weren’t the least bit curious about what really happened. Remember, nobody is above the law. Fox’s Jesse Watters segment on police report stating that Obama was on the seen of his chef’s drowning “shortly after he went missing.” https://x.com/DesireeAmerica4/status/1948026234048532632 WSJ: Jeffrey Epstein’s Birthday Album Included Letters from Bill Clinton, Leon Black There are many idiotic US Reps and Senators, but Dem Senator Hirono (Hawaii) might be the dumbest. @America1stLegal: Dem Sen. Hirono: Has any court said that DEI is unconstitutional? Yes or no? Gene Hamilton: Yes. Hirono: Which court? Hamilton: The United States Supreme Court. Hirono: I disagree with you… Hamilton: You can go read it yourself. https://x.com/America1stLegal/status/1948173062911984053 @IAPolls2022: Pew Research – Party Affiliation 2021 Democrat: 52% (D+10), Republican: 42% 2025 Republican: 46% (R+1), Democrat: 45% Net 11 point swing towards the GOP https://t.co/ZNi8xxVjSy @DavidMMcintosh: The New York Times is reporting that blue states have no tools to counter red state redistricting because democrat states are already insanely gerrymandered. https://t.co/nWD07wlFbf “Newspaper men are a dirty set, a poor class of men who do not think or reason much.” – Gen. William T. Sherman Went to Burger King for the first in months: Whopper with Cheese $7.69; Double Whopper with Cheese $9.09; two frozen Cokes $4.00. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
The House to investigate Jan 6
(zerohedge)
House GOP Paves Way To Establish New Subcommittee To Investigate Jan. 6
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025 – 05:40 PM
Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) announced on July 23 that Republicans would pursue passage of a resolution to form a new subcommittee that would investigate events surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.
If the resolution, introduced by Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), is approved by the House, it would authorize the creation of the second House panel dedicated to exploring the events of the day, when protestors entered the U.S. Capitol, causing a delay in the certification of the 2020 election results.
Loudermilk filed the resolution as lawmakers were leaving for their month-long August recess. It will receive a vote when Congress returns in September.
The authorization of the subcommittee, promised by Johnson at the start of the 119th Congress, has been delayed for months, with work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act taking precedence.
The first subcommittee investigating the events—the Select Subcommittee to Investigate the Jan. 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol—was established in June 2021 and included only two Republicans, Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).
Critics accused the panel of bias against then-former President Donald Trump and of not considering certain pieces of evidence.
Several of Trump’s allies, most prominently Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, were imprisoned on contempt of Congress charges for their refusal to cooperate with the probe.
Loudermilk was also targeted for investigation by the panel regarding a tour he gave of the Capitol complex ahead of Jan. 6. If the resolution is approved by the House, he’d be the chairman of the new panel.
During the previous Congress, Loudermilk served on the House Administration Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight, which investigated the events surrounding the day and the previous subcommittee’s handling of the issue.
In a report issued in December 2024, the committee alleged a litany of errors in how the original Jan. 6 panel had managed its investigation, recommending potential criminal investigations into Cheney and calling the panel “improperly constituted and [lacking] authority.”
In a statement on the bill, Loudermilk said: “I am honored to continue the investigation into the events surrounding January 6, 2021, and the failures that led to the breach of the U.S. Capitol. From my subcommittee investigation in the 118th Congress, we uncovered that what happened at the Capitol that day was the result of a series of intelligence, security, and leadership failures at multiple levels within numerous entities.
“It is vital that we continue to uncover the facts and begin the task of making needed reforms to ensure this level of security failure may never happen again.”
In a statement on the resolution, Johnson said: “House Republicans are proud of our work so far in exposing the false narratives peddled by the politically motivated January 6 Select Committee during the 117th Congress, but there is clearly more work to be done.
“The resolution introduced today will establish this Select Subcommittee so we can continue our efforts to uncover the full truth that is owed to the American people.”
The panel would be under the House Judiciary Committee, led by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).
In a statement on the resolution, Jordan said: “The partisan January 6 Committee failed to uncover crucial pieces of information for the American people … Rep. Loudermilk will continue to work tirelessly to get everyone the truth.”
END
Let me get this straight; they will campaign that the USA should have raised the taxes on everybody ?
Democrats Plan August Blitz To Campaign Against GOP Spending Bill
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025 – 04:20 PM
Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
House Democratic leaders plan to use the August recess to launch a nationwide campaign against the Republican-led budget law signed by President Donald Trump earlier this month—an effort they say will define the lead-up to the 2026 midterms.
“The one big, ugly bill is deeply unpopular,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said during a press conference July 22, using the Democrats’ name for the bill, officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by its GOP sponsors. “Donald Trump is deeply unpopular. And House Republicans haven’t done a damn thing to make life more affordable for the American people.”
Public opinion has been mixed. In a poll released on July 15 by CNN/SSRS, 61 percent of respondents said they oppose the legislation. Regarding its economic impact, 51 percent said it would hurt the economy, while 29 percent said it would help.
Jeffries, joined by Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), said Democrats will hold town halls and public events throughout the recess to highlight what they describe as the harmful effects of the spending package. Democrats have already made clear they will make the bill a centerpiece of their midterm strategy, warning it could lead to layoffs, benefit cuts, and rising costs for working families.
The legislation passed the House and Senate this month and was signed by Trump. Republicans say it streamlines government and boosts growth. The sweeping measure includes deep cuts to Medicaid, restructuring of safety net programs, and tax reductions that GOP leaders say will stimulate economic growth.
But Democrats say it will do the opposite.
“Hospitals will close. Nursing homes will shut down. Community-based health clinics will be unable to operate,” Jeffries added in the press conference.
Clark, speaking after Jeffries, accused Republicans of prioritizing the wealthy while undermining families.
“Their signature bill, the big, ugly bill, kicked 15 million Americans off their health insurance, takes food from 16 million kids, raises energy bills, shuts down hospitals, denies veterans their benefits,” she said. “They run up the debt to give tax breaks to billionaires.”
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill’s Medicaid provisions are expected to increase the number of uninsured Americans by 7.7 million, something Republicans have disputed.
The changes include new requirements for all enrollees to verify income and citizenship every six months starting in 2027. The bill also imposes a work or community engagement requirement of 20 hours per week for certain adults, effective no sooner than January 2027. States will also be allowed to impose cost-sharing of up to $35 per visit on some Medicaid expansion enrollees starting in 2028.
Republicans have argued these changes will improve program integrity. “[The bill] requires citizenship verification and more frequent eligibility checks in order to ensure illegal immigrants and ineligible beneficiaries are not able to receive Medicaid,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in May. But some health policy analysts warn the new requirements could cause eligible Americans to lose coverage due to administrative hurdles.
House Democrats say they will contrast the Republican law with their own vision of an “affordable economy,” pointing to upcoming themed events, including a Medicare and Medicaid Day of Action on July 30, a Social Security-focused day on Aug. 14, and a Cost of Living Week of Action later that month.
“We believe in this country that when you work hard and play by the rules, you should be able to live the good life,” Jeffries said. “That means Republicans need to keep their hands off of Social Security and Medicare.”
Aguilar said the new law’s Medicaid cuts are already forcing rural hospitals to shut down. “They’re closing nursing homes, forcing grandma and grandpa to fend for themselves while making the purchase of a new private jet fully tax deductible,” he said.
The bill also reduces a financing tool used by nearly every state to boost federal Medicaid reimbursements. By phasing down allowable provider taxes from 6 percent to 3.5 percent in expansion states over five years, some Republicans say they are ending a form of “money laundering,” but critics warn the move could threaten hospital budgets.
To offset potential losses, the bill creates a $50 billion Rural Hospital Stabilization Fund, with funds available from 2026 through 2030.
Jeffries spoke for nearly nine hours on the House floor on July 2 in an attempt to delay the bill’s passage. Democrats have said the bill could raise health insurance premiums for middle-class families and reduce access to care, especially in expansion states.
Despite Democrats’ criticism, House Republican leaders praised the bill as a generational win. In a statement after its passage, GOP leadership said the law “permanently lowers taxes,” “unleashes American energy dominance,” and “makes government more efficient and effective.”
But Democrats said voters will reject those claims once they see the effects firsthand.
“They are literally running away from the needs of the American people in order to protect the very wealthy,” Clark said Wednesday.
Lawrence Wilson contributed to this report.
END
Meet the new brain-washed thanks to the extreme left Democrats
(Anderson)
Gen-Z Democrat Operative Visits Iran, Joins “Death To America” Chant
Friday, Jul 25, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Submitted by Jason Curtis Anderson of One City Rising,
Meet Calla Walsh.
She got her start organizing for Senator Ed Markey while still a teenager. The perfect profile: earnest, idealistic, a model Gen Z Democrat. But like so many others on the far left, that idealism mutated into something darker—something that most of the Democratic Party still refuses to reckon with.
After her stint with Markey, Walsh joined the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a group that openly supports abolishing capitalism, borders, police, private property—and, of course, Israel. In case you haven’t been following domestic extremism, the DSA also formally adopted ANTIFA into its political framework back in 2019. That’s right—the group known for smashing windows, firebombing courthouses, and beating journalists is now a pillar of the left’s fastest-growing political organization.
But for Walsh, the DSA wasn’t revolutionary enough, so she quit.
She moved on to launch Palestine Action U.S., an offshoot of the UK-based organization that was just formally designated a terrorist group by the British government. In 2024, Walsh was arrested and jailed for sabotage at an Elbit Systems facility in New Hampshire, a defense contractor that supplies equipment to both the U.S. and Israeli militaries.
Walsh then rebranded the group to Unity of Fields, which Senator Marco Rubio encouraged the DOJ to investigate after discovering it was one of the most pro-terrorism entities operating on social media. Not an easy feat. The group regularly publishes propaganda glorifying Hamas and Hezbollah, and celebrates direct action against American institutions.
And now?
She’s in Tehran, waving at military commanders and chanting “Death to America” in Farsi at an IRGC rally—the same IRGC that has funneled weapons to Hamas, killed hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq, and plotted assassinations on U.S. soil.
This is not the first time that progressive democrats have chanted “death to America” in Farsi, as Shabir Rivzi from the Party for Socialism and Liberation did so last year in Chicago while planning to disrupt the DNC. And unsurprisingly, not a single blue-check Democrat seemed to have a problem with it.
Why would they? This kind of extremism has been baked into the progressive movement for years. In New York City, Democratic Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani—a rising star in DSA politics—is now running for mayor. Mamdani isn’t just an advocate for Palestine; but a founder of his Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) chapter, a group that’s now being investigated for links to terror groups.
In December 2024, a raid on the Virginia home of two SJP leaders from George Mason University turned up more than just protest signs. According to Washington Free Beacon and official court documents, police found modern firearms, boxes of ammunition, foreign passports, and pro-terror paraphernalia—including Hamas and Hezbollah flags. Signs reading “Death to Jews” and “Death to America” were scattered throughout the house.
This is who Mamdani aligned himself with. These are the networks Calla Walsh comes from. And they’re all being normalized in the heart of the Democratic Party.
Don’t believe it? Just look at Columbia University’s CUAD protest group which openly called for the “total eradication of Western civilization.” Their spokesperson, Mahmoud Khalil, was welcomed by progressive royalty in Washington as if he had cured cancer—making appearances with Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, and Ilhan Omar. No denouncements. No questions. Just smiles and selfies.
And in New York City, where we have now normalized masked men carrying terrorist flags alongside Within Our Lifetime, the group led by Nerdeen Kiswani. It’s something most New Yorkers never imagined would happen within our lifetime, but here we are.
While progressives lecture endlessly about the dangers of fascism, there never seems to be a line too far when it comes to terror support and the death to the West crowd. A teenager radicalized by DSA can land in prison, praise Hezbollah, and end up working with the IRGC, and still probably get a job doing comms for a progressive politician, maybe alongside Zohran’s comms person who wished death to President Trump.
The narrative never changes: conservatives are a threat to democracy, but extremists who swear to overthrow the government, and dismantle “the U.S. empire” by any means necessary are simply exercising free speech.
Calla Walsh is just the latest case study in what happens when a movement refuses to draw a line.
She didn’t start out in the mountains of Afghanistan or the streets of Tehran. She started out at a Massachusetts phone bank, organizing voters for a sitting U.S. senator. She passed through every level of the left’s activist ecosystem: DSA meetings, Palestine protests, anti-police rallies. Each one nudged her a little further left—until she wasn’t protesting America anymore, she was openly engaging with those plotting to destroy it.
And progressives don’t see a problem with it, because they hate America too.
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON MONDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
