JULY 29/GOLD CLOSED UP $16.45 TO $3326.65 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 TO $38.19 AS WE ARE NOW HEADING INTO OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR LONDON/OTIC CONTRACTS//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $12.60 TO $1401.55 WHILE PALLADIUM HAS BEEN ON A TEAR LATELY UP ANOTHER $10.85 TO $1253.35//TWO IMPORTANT PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARIES FOR YOU TONIGHT: RON STOEFERLE (PARTNERS WITH VON GREYERZ) AND JOHN ZADEHON WHO EXPLAINS IN DETAIL HOW THE HIGH LEASE RATES IN SILVER WILL LEAD TO HIGHER PRICES// CHINA AND USA AGREE TO DELAY TARIFF IMPLEMENTATION FOR ANOTHER TWO WEEKS/TALKS WITH SOUTH KOREA ALSO GOING WELL BUT NOT CANADA//RUSSIA ANGRY AT TRUMP’S NEW ULTIMATUM AS THEY UNLEASH MORE MISSILES AT UKRAINE//ISRAEL VS HAMAS ET AL VIDEO SUMMARY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES/ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES/HOUTHIS UPDATES/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/NEWS ADDICTS ETC//MORE USA DATA RELEASES AND A BIG DROP IN USA TRADE IMBALANCES: A BIG WIN FOR TRUMP//USA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DROPPING//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 504 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 515 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 12 880 C CITIGROUP 1
TOTAL: 516 516 MONTH TO DATE: 11,997
JPMORGAN STOPPED 0/516
JULY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2024: 516 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 51, 600 OZ or 1.6049 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,997 contracts for 1,199,700 OR 37.315 tonnes)
FOR JULY
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SILVER NOTICES: 39 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.190 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9335 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 46.675 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD $16.45 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD..
INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.11 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OUT OF THE SLV/
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 487.398 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1131 CONTRACTS TO 170,254 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS OF $0.13 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BASE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 831 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A FAIR 300 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $36.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON THURSDAY WITH SILVER’S SMALL LOSS IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $36.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $38.08 . WE HAVE A HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE AT 862 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT STILL SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 38.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A FAIR 300 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 862 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILLBE USED IN MONDAY’S// TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 192 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.13.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 862 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.13) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HADE A HUGE LOSS OF 831 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND HUGE MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH MONDAY’S RAID.. MOST OF ALL OF THIS LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO THOSE TWO SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS
WE HAD A 300 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 34.730 MILLION OZ PLUS TODAY’S 23 CONTRACT OI SIZED QUEUE JUMP FOR 115,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.690 MILLION OZ
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY: 46.690 MILLION OZ INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 862 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 639 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 DAY(S), total 8775 contracts: OR 43.875 MILLION OZ (438 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 43.875 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 43.875 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
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RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1131 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.13 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR 300 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 300 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 4 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.575 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (862 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TRADING.
WE HAD 38 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.190 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,563 OI CONTRACTS TO 450,941 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 2233 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG DECREASE IN COMEX OI (10,563 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $24.00 IN PRICE// MONDAY///.
LAST THREE MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 1.577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 38.906 TONNES STANDING
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2150 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 450,941 /NOW STILL AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 170,254 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF CONTRACTS WITH 8413 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2150 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8413 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED AND CRIMINAL 3063 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE JOINED WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION TO CREATE OUR RAID IN GOLD/.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(2150) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 10,563 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8413 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR JULY AT 17.947 TONNES COUPLED WITH TODAY’S 1/577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX. FOR RISK//STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.906 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JULY CONTRACT AT 37.356 TONNES OF GOLD + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RI.SK = 38.906 TONNES
.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION IN THE COMEX SESSION AS WE HAD 1)A $24.00 COMEX PRICE LOSS. WE HAD 2) SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 8413 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR TAS SPREADERS AND MONTHLY SPREADERS I.E. MOST OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO THE TWO SPREADERS// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS BY THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING WE HAVE BEEN HAVING.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (2150 CONTRACTS)/// STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3063 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 42,515 CONTRACTS OR 4,251,500 OZ OR 132.23 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2125 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 132.23 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 132.23 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.53% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
UNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 132.23 TONNES//STILL QUITE SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1131 CONTRACTS OI TO 170,254 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 300 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 100 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1131 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 831 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.13 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.155 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.77 PTS OR 0.33%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 37.68 PTS OR 0.15%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 323.72 PTS OR 0.79% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.04%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1758 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1785/ Oil UP TO 67.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 70.41 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1758 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1785 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,563 CONTRACTS TO 450,941 OI WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $24.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST SOME NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2150 ). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //MONDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 8413 CONTRACTS.
LAST WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. HOWEVER LAST NIGHT ZER0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOW SATISFIED!
HISTORY: LAST SIX MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8413 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN LAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE IN JANUARY(AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND NOW JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER FINALLY ENDS OUR MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH COMMENCED EARLY LAST WEEK, AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A STRONG 3063 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS IN FULL FORCE WITH TODAY’S RAID DURING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATION ARE JOINED WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES TO RAID THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. NOW IN JULY WE HAVE HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 38.906 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 38.906 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 233 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NONE COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2150 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 2150 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2150 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY AND THEY WERE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION
SOME NET SPEC LIQUIDATION WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE WITH OUR TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WAS A VERY STRONG SIZED 3063 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE THIS PAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S HUGE LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD AND SILVER AND A CORRESPONDING LIQUIDATION OF SOME COMEX OI. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH THE RARE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK! THE CONTINUAL RAIDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WERE USED TO LOWER THE HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES ENDURED BY THE BANKERS.
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 1.577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = = 39/906 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/JULY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A STRONG $24.00/ /) AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////MONDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE!
TUESDAYS MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AN ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD OCCURRED ON JULY 25 WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.55 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 37.176 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// JULY COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 19.222 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY FIRST RECORDED AT 17.947 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 50,700 OZ OR 1.577 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY 1.555 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 37.356 TONNES + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 38.906 TONNES
ALL OF THIS QUITE GOOD STANDING FOR JULY WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $24.00
WE HAD A MAMMOTH 2233 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8413 CONTRACTS OR 841,300 0Z (26.167 TONNES)
2. Malca: 128,604.000 oz (4000 kilobars) total deposit: 132,494.271 oz (4,121 kilobars or 4.121 tonnes of gold
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No of oz served (contracts) today
516 notice(s) 51,600 OZ 1.6049 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
13 contracts 1300 OZ 0.0404 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,997 notices 1,199,700 oz 37.315 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0 entry
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
2 ENTRIES
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Into JPMorgan 3890.271 oz
121 kilobars
2. Malca: 128,604.000 oz (4000 kilobars) total deposit: 132,494.271 oz (4,121 kilobars or 4.121 tonnes of gold
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customer withdrawal
0 entries
adjustments: 1
malca: customer to dealer 32118.849 oz (999 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY STANDS AT 529 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 252 CONTRACTS. ON MONDAY WE HAD 255 NOTICES FILED, SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 507 CONTRACTS OR 50,700 OZ (1.577 TONNES) ENTERTAINED WITH A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DEMANDED PHYSICAL DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF POND UPON EXERCISING AN EFP THROUGH LONDON. THIS IS CENTRAL BANKERS DEMANDING PHYSICAL GOLD AND COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST A NARRATIVE OF A GOLD RAID ON PRICE.
AUGUST LOST 42,517 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 66,792 AS AUGUST BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND IT’S OI IS STILL VERY HIGH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A STRONG NUMBER OF TONNES STANDING. WE HAVE ONLY 3 MORE TRADING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE JULY 31.
SEPT GAINED 664 CONTRACTS TO 4135
We had 516 contracts filed for today representing 51600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 516 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,997 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (529 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (516 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,201,000 OZ OR 37.356 TONNES to which we add 1.555 tonnes of gold issued under exchange for risk// total standing 38.906 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,997 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (529 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (516 x 100 oz) which equals 1,201,000OZ OR 37.356 TONNES + 1.555 tonnes EX FOR RISK = 38.906 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.: 38.906 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total adjusted from dealer to customer 5,513,773.031 oz
must mean a delivery of sorts.
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.956 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 502.296Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2025 OI: 41 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 18 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 5 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 23 CONTRACTS OR 115,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST LOST 254 CONTRACTS TO 1,136 AS THIS MONTH BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER
SEPTEMBER LOST 2240 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 122,977 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 38 or 0.190 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 52,541 poor//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9335 X5,000 oz = 46.675 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (41) AND the number of notices served upon today (38 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2025 contract month: (9335) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY(41) minus number of notices served upon today (39)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY contract month equating to 46.690 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 46.690 million oz which is huge for this active delivery month of JULY. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.956 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/502.256 million. 41.94%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956/23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 956.23 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 487.378 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ/RON STOEFERLE
1970s, 2000s, 2020s… A Déjà Vu In Two Acts – Second Act
Since the price of gold was freed by the final separation of sovereign currencies from gold following the closure of the gold window on August 15, 1971, gold has experienced three bull markets: in the 1970s, in the 2000s and in the current decade. A comparison of these three major gold bull markets shows that history does not repeat itself: History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Despite various differences, the structural similarities in the underlying conditions outweigh the differences. In the past two decades, gold proved to be a safe haven in the midst of inflation, economic turmoil and confidence crises and recorded enormous gains during these golden decades. Many of the factors that fueled the price of gold at that time, from negative real interest rates and excessive money supply growth to geopolitical tensions, are also present again in the 2020s. Developments in the first half of the 2020s support the theory that we are experiencing déjà vu and that the 2020s could become the third golden decade. Gold has already reached numerous historic highs in all currencies.
Gold’s performance has been particularly impressive over the past 1 ½ years. In 2024, gold gained 28.9% in US dollars, 35.6% in euros and 37.1% in Swiss francs. In the first half of 2025, gold achieved a further gain of 25.6% in US dollars, 10.5% in euros and 9.8% in Swiss francs. This results in a total gain of 61.9% in US dollars, 49.8% in euros and 50.4% in Swiss francs. This means that gold has outperformed almost all leading share indices over the past 18 months by a wide or very wide margin.
The historical comparison is promising
The second half of the past two gold bull markets showed remarkably similar price dynamics: In the 1970s, the gold price rose by 162%, while in the 2000s it increased by 150%. If the current cycle continues in a similar fashion, the gold price would increase from USD 2,624 at the midpoint of the decade at the end of December 2024 to around USD 6,800 by the end of the decade. In fact, past bull markets have always ended in an overshoot, with prices doubling within around 9 months.
Silver, mining stocks & commodities in general also perform in golden decades
The following table provides an insightful comparison of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of gold, silver, mining stocks and commodities over the 1970s, 2000s and 2020s, broken down into first and second halves and for the period as a whole. Even though the data for the second half of the 2020s decade is naturally only available in rudimentary form, some interesting patterns can be identified.
CAGR of Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks, and Commodities in Bull Market Decades, in USD, 12/1969–06/2025
Source: LSEG (as at 06/30/2025), Incrementum AG
*BGMI 12/1969-05/1996, HUI 05/1996- **GSCI Index TR, ***Decade start to high
Gold has been the most stable performer over all three decades. In the 1970s, it achieved an annual gain of over 40% in the first half and still 21% in the second half. The pattern reversed in the 2000s. In the first decade of the new millennium, the second half was much more dynamic, with an annual gain of 20% in the first half and an annual gain of just under 9%. The CAGR development to date in the 2020s is particularly striking: After an annualized return of just under 12% in the first half of the decade, gold has so far achieved an average annual performance of just over 50% in the second half. On the one hand, this extraordinary momentum is due to the still short observation period, which is statistically more susceptible to outliers. On the other hand, it is a clear sign of cyclical momentum. Even if it cannot be assumed that gold will maintain its current pace over the entire second half of the decade, the development impressively underlines the intact upward momentum and the growing interest in the precious metal.
Silver traditionally presents itself as a cyclical laggard with a tendency towards explosive final spurts. In the 1970s, the second half, with an annual return of more than 44% was significantly stronger than the first half, with an annual gain of 21%. A similar pattern emerged in the 2000s. A strong performance has also been observed in the current decade, but the historical parallels suggest that the dynamic part of the cycle is possibly still to come.
Gold mining shares are regarded as a more volatile leverage variant of the gold price, with sometimes spectacular swings. In the 1970s, gold mining shares gained over 35% per year in the first half of the decade, but lost much of their momentum in the second half. In the 2000s, the first half was also much stronger than the second, with annual gains of just under 24%. The 2020s appear to be breaking this pattern for the time being: After a disappointing first half with an average annual gain of just 3.25%, the mining sector is currently recording a comeback with an annualized gain of almost 80% in the second half of the decade.
Commodities show a strongly cyclical picture. In the 1970s, they excelled in the first half with an annual increase of more than 36%, driven by oil price shocks and inflationary pressure. In the 2000s, performance was weaker overall, with the second half even turning negative due to the global financial crisis in 2007/08, bringing the commodity supercycle to an abrupt end. In the 2020s, the first half has so far been rather subdued. The second half began with a setback of almost -4% due to the Trump shock.
The new 60/40 portfolio puts the old 60/40 portfolio in the shade
The historical analysis of past bull markets provides impressive evidence: gold, silver, mining stocks, and commodities prove to be particularly resilient in fragile macroeconomic and geopolitical phases. Based on this insight, we presented an enhanced 60/40 portfolio as a modern, more robustly structured alternative to the traditional model in last year’s In Gold We Trust report, The New Gold Playbook. The aim was to take account of the changed framework conditions and outline a modern allocation strategy.
In contrast to the traditional allocation of 60% equities and 40% bonds, the new model deliberately takes into account the changed risk landscape and expands the allocation framework to include liquid, alternative assets that cannot be inflated at will: 45% equities, 15% bonds, 15% safety gold, 10% performance gold, i.e. silver and mining stocks, 10% commodities and 5% bitcoin.
A look at the performance of the last twelve months compared to the classic 60/40 portfolio shows how this rebalancing has worked in practice since the publication of last year’s In Gold We Trust report.
A comparison of the two portfolios over the period from May 2024 to June 2025 shows that the new 60/40 portfolio significantly outperformed its classic counterpart over long stretches. After an initially subdued start, the performance of the new 60/40 portfolio picked up noticeably. While the traditional 60/40 portfolio came under increasing pressure as the year progressed, the new model remained much more stable and resilient, particularly in the volatile market phases of the current year.
The performance advantage over the period under review underpins the thesis that a modern portfolio architecture based on sound money components and inflation-resilient assets is superior to the traditional model, both in terms of stability and return potential. While gold has already reached new all-time highs, silver and mining stocks are still in the slipstream. However, experience shows that they catch up in the late phase of the cycle, which brings additional catch-up potential for performance gold.
Conclusion
Since the final separation of the international monetary system from gold with the closing of the gold window on August 15, 1971 by US President Richard Nixon, gold has enjoyed two golden decades with brilliant gold price rises: After the previous two golden decades, the 1970s and the 2000s, we are now in the middle of the third golden decade. Setbacks and longer pauses to catch your breath cannot be ruled out in a secular bull market and are even beneficial for long-term development. Such phases are suitable for additional purchases. Fundamentally, there is much to suggest that the 2020s will once again be a golden decade, not just a golden half-decade.
Against this backdrop, the new 60/40 portfolio presented last year not only remains relevant but also proves to be a strategically well-thought-out response to the requirements of an increasingly complex market environment. It combines sound money principles and reflects the insight that runs through all bull markets, as the historical pattern suggests: the first half builds up, the second escalates, and the curtain finally falls in the middle of the applause.
J0HN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES/other gold silver commentaries
(John Zadehon)
Silver Lease Rates and Trade Tariffs: Impact on Price Surge
Silver is making headlines as it approaches the $40 per ounce mark—a psychological threshold not seen since the 2011 peak. Currently hovering near $39, this precious metal has captured the attention of investors and market analysts alike, with sentiment sharply divided between those who view this price movement as long overdue and those who consider it overheated.
This rally doesn’t exist in isolation. The broader precious metals market analysis shows similar strength, with gold approaching $3,400 per ounce and platinum near $1,500 per ounce. These concurrent price movements reflect deeper market forces at work beyond simple investment demand.
The Psychological $40 Milestone
The $40 level represents more than just a number—it’s a psychological barrier that could significantly impact market behavior. Breaking through this resistance would establish a decade-high watermark, potentially triggering a new wave of momentum buying and institutional interest.
What makes this particular price point significant is its rarity in silver’s trading history. Since 2011, silver has struggled to maintain momentum above $30, making this approach to $40 particularly noteworthy for long-term market participants who recognize its historical significance.
Market Insight: Psychological price barriers often create short-term volatility as profit-taking increases near round-number price levels, particularly when they coincide with multi-year highs.
Unexpected Catalysts Behind the Rally
While many analysts predicted silver would reach $40 during 2024-2025, the timeline has accelerated dramatically. The primary driver behind this acceleration has been the unanticipated impact of aggressive U.S. trade policies that few market participants saw coming.
The Liberation Day tariffs have exceeded market expectations in both scope and scale. Initially, market focus centered on gold’s traditional safe-haven status during economic uncertainty. However, attention has rapidly shifted to silver’s unique position at the intersection of monetary and industrial demand.
The initial postponement of tariff deadlines to July created temporary market optimism. This was quickly followed by announcements of 30% tariffs on Mexican and European goods, creating immediate and significant market disruption. The sudden policy shifts have forced market participants to rapidly reevaluate supply chains and physical metal availability.
How Are Trade Tariffs Impacting Silver Markets?
The Escalation of Trade Tensions
Trade policy uncertainty has emerged as a defining feature of silver’s price dynamics. The delayed implementation of the Liberation Day tariffs initially created a sense of relief in markets, with many participants hoping for a more moderate approach to international trade policy.
This optimism proved short-lived. The subsequent announcement of 30% tariffs targeting Mexican and European goods sent shockwaves through commodity markets, with silver particularly vulnerable due to its cross-border supply chain complexities.
Market participants now face a landscape where silver could potentially face similar trade restrictions as copper, creating preemptive stockpiling behavior and risk premiums in pricing models. This anticipatory response amplifies price movements beyond what fundamental supply-demand factors might otherwise suggest.
The Copper Tariff Surprise
Perhaps nothing illustrates the unpredictable nature of current trade policy more than the July 8th announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports. This move shocked markets because copper has traditionally been considered immune from such aggressive trade measures for two critical reasons:
Development Timeline: New copper mines typically require 7+ years from discovery to production
Supply Chain Integration: Deeply embedded global supply chains that resist rapid restructuring
The copper tariff announcement served as a warning shot across the bow of all industrial metals markets
It signaled that metals with dual industrial-monetary properties like silver could be next
Market participants began factoring potential disruptions into pricing models
Risk premiums expanded across the precious metals complex
This unexpected policy shift caused institutional investors to reassess their exposure to silver, recognizing that its industrial applications could make it vulnerable to similar tariffs impact on markets.
Why Are Silver Lease Rates a Critical Market Signal?
Understanding the Lease Rate Mechanism
Silver lease rates have more than doubled to over 6%—a dramatic move that reveals significant stress in physical markets. To understand the implications, it’s essential to first grasp what lease rates actually represent.
Lease rates are the interest paid by institutions to borrow physical silver. Their primary function is ensuring exchanges can fulfill delivery obligations on futures contracts. Under normal market conditions, these rates remain low when metal flows freely through the global system.
When physical silver becomes scarce or holders become reluctant to lend, these rates rise rapidly. The current spike to over 6% indicates a fundamental shift in market dynamics that transcends normal trading patterns.
Technical Insight: Lease rates function as an early warning system for physical market tightness, typically responding before spot prices fully reflect supply constraints.
What Spiking Lease Rates Reveal
The dramatic increase in lease rates unveils several critical market conditions:
Physical Retention: Silver holders are becoming unwilling or unable to lend their metal
Futures Market Stress: Exchanges face increased difficulty securing physical metal for potential delivery obligations
Regional Dislocations: Previously fluid global markets are developing pricing anomalies
Strategic Behavior: Major market participants are engaging in defensive stockpiling
These conditions create a self-reinforcing cycle where concerns about physical availability drive institutional stockpiling, further reducing available supply and pushing lease rates higher. This feedback loop can accelerate price movements as futures market participants scramble to secure physical metal.
The current lease rate environment suggests we’re witnessing more than simple speculative interest—there are structural strains in the physical supply chain that warrant attention from serious investors.
How Do Industrial Applications Factor Into Silver’s Price Movement?
Silver’s Dual Identity
Unlike gold, which serves primarily as a monetary metal and store of value, silver occupies a unique position with significant exposure to both investment and industrial demand. This dual identity creates market dynamics not seen in other metals.
Silver plays a critical role in the energy sector, particularly in solar panel production and emerging battery technologies. This industrial demand parallels platinum’s automotive applications and copper’s infrastructure requirements, creating vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and trade policy changes.
The industrial component of silver demand means that trade policies targeting manufacturing sectors have direct implications for silver markets. As global supply chains adjust to new trade realities, silver’s complex demand profile amplifies price volatility.
Energy Sector Exposure: Solar panels, batteries, and electrical contacts
Medical Applications: Antimicrobial properties for healthcare equipment
Electronics: Conductivity properties essential for modern devices
Photography: Continuing demand despite digital transition
Domestic Resource Prioritization
Current trade policies reflect a renewed focus on improving domestic manufacturing capabilities and reshaping industrial supply chains. Tariffs serve as policy tools to incentivize domestic production and reduce reliance on international suppliers.
This shift creates the potential for silver to be included in future trade negotiations, particularly as its role in energy transition insights grows more prominent. Forward-thinking institutions are already preparing for possible disruptions to cross-border metal flows by securing physical inventory.
The emphasis on domestic resource prioritization creates regional price disparities as metal movement becomes constrained by tariff considerations. These dislocations can create both challenges and opportunities for well-positioned market participants.
What Should Investors Understand About Current Silver Prices?
The Uncertainty Premium
Current silver prices include a risk premium that reflects trade policy uncertainty. This premium manifests as higher spot prices and increased physical bullion premiums globally. Understanding this component of pricing is essential for making informed investment decisions.
This uncertainty premium could potentially retrace once trade rules become clearer and markets adjust to the new normal. However, institutional stockpiling behavior is creating additional upward price pressure that may persist even after policy uncertainty diminishes.
Market Perspective: Risk premiums are typically temporary features of pricing during periods of policy change, but they can persist longer than expected if uncertainty becomes the new normal.
Physical silver premiums (the amount paid above spot price) serve as a barometer for this uncertainty, with rising premiums indicating heightened concerns about future availability. These premiums vary regionally, reflecting different levels of supply chain stress across global markets.
Strategic Considerations for Investors
Investors navigating the current silver market should consider several strategic factors:
Volatility Outlook: Short-term price volatility will likely continue until trade policies stabilize
Physical Possession: Direct ownership is gaining importance amid delivery concerns on paper contracts
Futures Market Dynamics: Physical metal availability increasingly influences paper market pricing
Focus on investment vehicles with transparent physical backing
Consider premium levels when purchasing physical metal
Recognize that price corrections may occur when uncertainty diminishes
Maintain appropriate position sizing given heightened volatility
The growing premium placed on physical possession reflects systemic concerns about paper contracts and delivery obligations. This shift in sentiment benefits physical holders while potentially creating stress for market participants relying on paper contracts for exposure.
FAQ About Silver Markets and Trade Policies
How do trade tariffs directly affect precious metals prices?
Trade tariffs create uncertainty about cross-border metal deliveries, forcing exchanges to stockpile physical metal to ensure they can meet futures contract obligations. This increased demand, combined with potential supply disruptions, drives prices higher as market participants build risk premiums into their pricing models.
The impact extends beyond direct tariffs on silver itself. Tariffs on related industrial sectors can change silver demand patterns, while general trade tensions create safe-haven demand for precious metals. These combined effects typically result in higher prices and increased volatility.
What’s the relationship between silver lease rates and physical availability?
Silver lease rates function as an early warning system for physical market tightness. When rates spike above historical norms (as they have now to over 6%), it indicates physical holders are reluctant to part with their metal, suggesting supply constraints or anticipated market disruptions.
Lease rates typically rise when:
Physical inventories at exchanges decline
Concerns about future delivery obligations increase
Geopolitical risks threaten supply chains
Industrial demand outpaces mine supply
This relationship makes lease rates a leading indicator of potential price movements, often signaling tightness before it becomes fully reflected in spot prices.
Could silver face direct tariffs similar to copper?
While no specific silver tariffs have been announced, the unexpected 50% tariff on copper imports demonstrates that industrial metals are potential targets in trade negotiations. Silver’s dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal makes it vulnerable to similar trade policy decisions.
The precedent set by the copper tariff suggests that metals previously considered exempt from aggressive trade measures due to their economic importance are now potential targets. Prudent investors should consider this possibility when constructing portfolios with silver exposure.
How might the $40 psychological barrier affect silver’s price movement?
Breaking through the $40 level could trigger additional momentum buying as it would represent a decade-high price point. However, psychological barriers can also create resistance as profit-taking increases near round-number price levels, potentially creating short-term volatility.
Historical precedent suggests that significant price barriers often create consolidation periods before decisive breaks higher or retracements lower. The $40 level represents a critical test of the sustainability of silver’s current uptrend.
Silver’s Industrial-Monetary Balance: A Market in Transition
The Energy Transition Factor
Silver’s role in green energy technologies creates a growing demand source that didn’t exist during previous price cycles. Solar panel production alone consumes significant quantities of silver, with each gigawatt of solar capacity requiring approximately 20-80 tons of silver depending on the technology used.
This growing industrial demand creates a fundamental price support that differs from silver’s historical dynamics. As energy transition accelerates globally, this component of demand becomes increasingly significant in price formation.
Solar panel manufacturing creates consistent silver demand
Electric vehicle production increases silver consumption
While industrial demand provides a steady foundation, investment demand drives much of silver’s short-term price volatility. The current macroeconomic environment features several factors supporting investment interest:
Geopolitical Tensions: International conflicts increase safe-haven demand
Currency Debasement: Central bank policies eroding fiat currency purchasing power
Institutional Recognition: Growing acceptance of precious metals in portfolio construction
These investment factors, combined with industrial demand growth, create a compelling case for continued strength in silver prices even after short-term trade policy uncertainties resolve.
Investment Perspective: Silver’s lower price point compared to gold makes it accessible to a broader range of investors, potentially expanding its market during periods of economic uncertainty.
The Physical-Paper Divergence: Understanding Market Mechanics
The Futures Market Pressure Point
A critical aspect of current silver market dynamics is the growing divergence between physical metal availability and paper contract volume. Futures markets function smoothly when physical metal flows freely, allowing for efficient contract settlement.
The current environment features several stressors on this relationship:
Rising lease rates indicate physical metal retention
Strategic stockpiling reduces available floating inventory
These factors create potential settlement stress in futures markets, particularly during delivery months when a portion of contract holders may stand for physical delivery rather than rolling positions forward.
The Premium for Physical Possession
Physical silver products currently command significant premiums above spot prices—a market signal that paper prices may not fully reflect true physical market conditions. These premiums vary by product type and region:
Sovereign coins often carry the highest premiums due to legal tender status
Industrial bars (1000 oz) typically trade closer to spot prices
Regional premiums reflect local supply-demand imbalances
Vintage products may command collectible premiums beyond metal content
This premium structure rewards physical holders while creating challenges for those attempting to convert paper positions to physical metal. Understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating the current market environment effectively.
Conclusion: Navigating Silver’s Path Forward
The combination of trade policy uncertainty, physical market tightness, and silver’s dual monetary-industrial nature creates both challenges and opportunities for market participants. The path to $40 silver appears well-established, though potential volatility remains a significant consideration.
Investors should focus on physical metal quality, premium levels, and secure storage solutions while remaining cognizant of the potential for market normalization once trade policies stabilize. The current environment rewards physical possession and patience, with tactical opportunities arising from regional price dislocations.
The silver squeeze impact could be particularly pronounced if lease rates remain elevated, potentially forcing a reassessment of traditional gold-silver ratio analysis as the relationship between these two metals evolves under new market conditions.
Disclaimer: Silver markets involve significant price volatility and risk. This analysis represents current market conditions and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 233
5. COMMODITY REPORT..GROUND BEEF
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.77 PTS OR 0.33%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 37.68 PTS OR 0.15%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 323.72 PTS OR 0.79% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.04%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1758 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1785/ Oil UP TO 67.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 70.41 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1758 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1785 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1758 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1785
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 37.68 PTS OR 0.15%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 323.72 PTS OR 0.79%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.59/ EURO FALLS TO 1.1563 DOWN 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.565//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.50…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7050/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.546 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.289%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.398
3j Gold at $3322.70 Silver at: 38.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 69 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.03
3m oil (WTI) into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.50// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.565% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8054 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9313 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.417 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.961 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.926 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.58
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6790 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.529 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.078 DOWN 1 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise Ahead Of Data Deluge, S&P Set For 7th Straight Record High
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 07:59 AM
US equity futures are up again, and set for a 7th consecutive record high into a heavy earnings day and ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision as attention turns from trade deals to company results and economic data to justify nosebleed valuations. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 0.2% higher after the index hit its latest record high on Monday; tech is outperforming again and Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.5%. In pre-market trading, Mag7, Semis, and Cyclicals are outperforming. Bond yields are lower (10Y yield at 4.3919%, down 2bps) as the USD rally is poised to continue after the dollar climbed to its strongest level in more than five weeks on speculation a slew of readings on the economy will show the tariff impact is contained. Commodities are mixed with energy leading on US / RU geopolitics. The macro data focus today includes JOLTS, Housing Prices, regional Fed activity indicators, trade data, inventories, and consumer confidence.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher ahead of the coming earnings deluge (Nvidia +1.5%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.4%, Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple little changed, Alphabet -0.2%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Amkor Technology (AMKR) jumps 9% after the company gave an upbeat sales forecast for 3Q that predicted a boost from the production of iPhone sockets.
Cadence Design (CDNS) is up 7.6% after boosting its outlook for the year even as the maker of chip-design tools also pleaded guilty to charges accusing the company of violating US export controls.
Chart Industries (GTLS) is up 17% after the Financial Times reported that Baker Hughes is nearing a $13.6 billion cash deal to buy the equipment maker, gatecrashing an earlier agreement to merge with rival Flowserve.
Exelixis (EXEL) falls 13% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly sales of its cancer drug Cabometyx.
Philips ADRs (PHG) jump 9.5% after the Dutch medical-technology firm reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter and increased its profitability outlook for the year.
Stellantis’ US shares (STLA) fall 3.5% after the carmaker updated its estimate of 2025 net tariff impact to about €1.5 billion ($1.73 billion), of which €300 million was incurred in 1H 2025.
UnitedHealth (UNH) is down 3.7% after forecasting adjusted earnings per share for the full year of at least $16; the average analyst estimate sat at $20.40.
UPS (UPS) is down 3.8% after the courier declined to provide earnings guidance as it struggles to get a handle on volatility in the market, underscoring the challenges for its effort to reconfigure its network and revitalize its business.
Whirlpool (WHR) shares slump 15% after the appliance maker cut its full-year forecast for ongoing earnings per share. The updated outlook of no more than $8 missed the average analyst estimate of $8.78.
In corporate news, India overtook China to become the top source of smartphones sold in the US after Apple shifted more assembly of its iPhones there. Sarepta Therapeutics shares are soaring in premarket trading after US regulators recommended patients who can walk are allowed to take its gene therapy Elevidys again. Procter & Gamble promoted its chief operating officer to CEO. Whirlpool shares slumped in premarket trading after the appliance maker cut its full-year forecast. Cadence Design rose after boosting its outlook.
Investor attention is turning from recent US tariff deals with the European Union and Japan to key indicators spanning jobs and inflation to broader economic activity. The Federal Reserve is forecast to keep interest rates unchanged Wednesday, while investors will be tracking earnings from four megacap tech companies this week. The market is putting the chance of a 25-basis point cut this time around at just about 3%. while traders continue to lean toward a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s meeting in mid-September, with around 100 bps of easing seen over the next 12 months. Pressure from the White House for immediate rate cuts has the potential to sow dissent as Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues begin a two-day meeting. Fidelity reckons gold could hit $4,000 an ounce by the end of next year as the Fed cuts rates, the dollar drops, and central banks keep adding holdings.
“President Trump continues to call for much lower interest rates,” Gabriele Foà, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, wrote in a note. “With inflation not surging and the labor market softening, maintaining real rates at their current elevated levels will be increasingly difficult.”
We’re in the thick of earnings, with Boeing, Procter & Gamble, UPS and Starbucks all reporting on Tuesday. So far, the season has been one of “big beats but snail’s pace growth,” Bloomberg Intel’s Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong said, adding that preseason forecasts were too low. Magnificent 7 members Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms are all due to report numbers in the coming days. Robust corporate earnings have bolstered investor confidence in US stocks, as companies head for their highest share of beats since the second quarter of 2021.
Also in focus will be the Treasury Department’s update of debt-sales plans, due Wednesday. Traders expect issuance of Treasury bills to expand as the government tackles the financing of large deficits over the next quarter and into 2026.
In the latest tariff news, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a 90-day extension of a trade truce with China was a likely outcome with negotiations between the two countries underway in Stockholm. Higher tariffs are threatening to add to the burden already weighing on the US economy. Only Mexico among major economies is forecast to see a bigger dropoff in GDP growth than the US over 2025 and 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Meanwhile, US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security. The EU dodged an imminent trade war with the US, but markets and a growing chorus of critics have dispelled early hopes that the deal will bring a sense of stability back to transatlantic relations. The EU and US will seek to clinch a non-legally binding joint statement by Aug. 1 that will expand on some of the elements negotiated over the weekend, according to a senior EU official. One advantage to a trade deal that benefits the US more than Europe, for stock investors at least, is a weaker euro that makes European exports more competitive. The euro extended its slide to the weakest level in more than a month amid concern over the economic impact of the EU’s deal with the US.
“There is one positive, and it’s not the trade deal,” said Andrea Gabellone, equity strategist at KBC Securities in Brussels. “The positive is what happened yesterday on the FX market when finally the dollar caught a bid and the euro had a healthy correction.”
Taking a look at technicals, long positioning on US equity futures keeps increasing, and is now getting stretched for US growth stocks, according to Citi strategists. Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer said valuations are high enough that it’s prudent to keep diversifying into other markets. The impact of tariffs may hurt equity prices even after recent trade deals, he added.
US consumer confidence is expected to have shown an improvement in data due Tuesday, with JOLTS job openings statistics also on deck. Growth and inflation numbers out Wednesday are seen offering further signs of economic resilience.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.6%, led by industrials, banks and health care. Royal Philips soared as much as 14% after the Dutch medical-technology firm raised its profitability outlook, as the trade war impact was less severe than feared. Eyewear firm EssilorLuxottica gains after reassuring results. Amundi drops as analysts flag the firm’s higher flows are from lower-margin clients and products. Stellantis slips after giving an update on the tariff impact. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Philips shares jump as much as 14%, the most in a year, after the Dutch medical-technology firm reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter and increased its profitability outlook for the year
EssilorLuxottica rises as much as 5.6%, hitting the highest since May 23, with analysts viewing the eye-wear maker’s results as reassuring. Jefferies highlights that margin in the first half “held up well”
Rexel climbs as much as 5.7% following 1H which is seen as in-line to very slightly ahead by analysts. The French electrical-equipment distributor’s performance in North America helped to offset a weaker period elsewhere
Games Workshop risesas much as 8.8%, rebounding from a two month low, as its annual results surpassed expectations following a strong year that saw the Warhammer games specialist deliver growth across all key geographies
TF1 shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most since April 10, lifted by what analysts described as reassuring operating profits for the second quarter which came slightly above expectations
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen shares rise as much as 24% after the German printing firm furthers its push into the booming defense industry by entering a strategic partnership with Vincorion Advanced Systems
Forterra rises as much as 12%, the most in three-and-a-half years, after the masonry products company beat expectations in the first half and improved its earnings guidance for the full year
Amundi shares dropped as much as 6.2%, the worst performer among financial services stocks in Europe, as analysts flagged the firm’s higher flows and assets under management are from lower margin clients and products
Stellantis shares fall as much as 4.8% after the carmaker updated its estimate of 2025 net tariff impact to about €1.5 billion ($1.73 billion), of which €300 million was incurred in 1H 2025
Sika shares fall as much as 4.6% after the building materials firm reported an Ebitda miss and lowered its top-line outlook for the full year. Morgan Stanley notes that while trends are bottoming, investors may need to wait more
Forbo shares plunge as much as 13%, the most in almost five months, after the Swiss linoleum maker reported results that missed estimates, including a big miss for margins, according to ZKB
Xvivo Perfusion falls as much as 12% to January 2023 lows, after the Swedish organ-transplant equipment maker announced that European CE certification for its key growth product will be delayed by between 6 and 12 months
Endesa fell as much as 7% to be the worst performing stock on Spain’s IBEX-35 after the utility reported net
income for the first half that missed estimates
Earlier in the session, Asian equities extended losses for a third consecutive session, poised for their longest losing streak in nearly two months, as investors awaited key monetary policy decisions from Japan and the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index drop 0.5%, with TSMC and Toyota among the biggest drags. Stocks fell in Tokyo, where attention is focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement due Thursday. Losses were also notable in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Vietnam. South Korean shares bucked the region’s losses Tuesday, gaining as the won weakened. Indonesian equities gained after the country pledged to use its fiscal and monetary firepower to ensure economic growth is maintained at 5% this year.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed after earlier rising to a five-week high. The euro, which had been one of the weakest majors, is now nearly flat. The Swedish krona is the biggest G-10 decliner, down 0.3% against the greenback.
In rates, treasuries edge higher in early US trading after erasing small declines. Yields are lower across maturities by as much as 2bp with most curve spreads slightly flatter; 10-year is lower by 1.6bp near 4.39%. Price action is similarly muted in core European bond markets. US session features last of this week’s three coupon auctions and a heavy slate of economic data including June JOLTS job openings. Major events later this week include Wednesday’s Fed rate decision and Friday’s July employment report. Bunds underperform, with German 10-year yields rising nearly one basis point to 2.69%. This week’s compressed coupon auction concludes with $44 billion 7-year note sale at 1pm, the last coupon auction of the May-July financing quarter; quarterly refunding announcement for August-to-October is on Wednesday at 8:30am New York time
In commodities, spot gold climbs $11 to around $3,325/oz. WTI rises 0.7% to around $67 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 0.7% toward $119,000.
Taking a look at today’s macro data, Wholesale inventories for June are due at 8.30 am ET, followed half an hour later by the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index for May. JOLTS job data for June and the Conference Board’s reading of consumer confidence for July are both due at 10 am. Earnings highlights include Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, L’Oréal, and AstraZeneca. On the auction front, the US will issue $30bn in 2-year FRNs and $44bn in 7-year notes.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.3%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
DAX +1.1%, CAC 40 +1.2%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.42%
VIX -0.3 points at 14.73
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1209.18
euro -0.1% at $1.1577
WTI crude +0.8% at $67.26/barrel
Top Overnight News
Trump has pushed US tariffs on foreign goods to the highest level since before WWII as he enacts his sweeping protectionist agenda. The wall of levies since he took office in January has now taken the country’s effective tariff level to an estimated 17.3%. FT
Germany and France hit out at the long-awaited EU-US trade deal on Monday, warning it would wound the bloc’s economy as the euro slid against the dollar. German Chancellor Merz said the agreement would cause “considerable damage” to his country, Europe, and the US itself. “Not only will there be a higher inflation rate, but it will also affect transatlantic trade overall.” FT
A 90-day extension of the US-China trade truce is possible, Howard Lutnick said. Taiwan’s president appeared to cancel a trip next week after the Trump administration denied his US stopover on concerns it may jeopardize trade talks with Beijing. BBG
Trump denied seeking a summit with Xi Jinping, saying he’d visit China only if invited — an invitation he says has been extended. BBG
In a potential sign from Trump to keep the China relationship on a positive trajectory, the White House has denied a request from Taiwan’s president to stop in NYC next week as part of a trip to Central America. FT
Japan’s two-year bond auction saw the strongest demand since October, as yields neared their highest levels since 2008. BBG
India overtook China to become the biggest shipper of smartphones to the US in the June quarter. The country now accounts for 44% of the American market. BBG
UnitedHealth (UNH) set a new earnings target below The Street’s estimates for the year. Stock is -4.8% in the premkt, sees FY25 adj EPS of at least $16.00, we think buyside expectations were for $18.00. Mgmt said Medical costs in the quarter “significantly exceeded pricing trends.” BBG
Healthcare prices are set to shift higher for a variety of reasons, and Trump’s 15% tariff on the Eurozone pharma industry, a massive supplier of drugs into the US, is just one more factor that will drive costs higher. NYT
Trade/Tariffs
Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, says his understanding is that if a third country reaches an agreement with the US on lower sectoral tariffs, such as chips and pharma, the same rate would apply to Japan.
US President Trump posted “I’m in Scotland now after having just completed the EU Deal, and numerous others. The United States is doing GREAT, to put it mildly!!!”
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump will mull a few deals this week and set tariff rates on other nations by the end of the week, while he added the table is set with nations that have offered access and “Next week, we’re off”.
US President Trump’s administration reportedly hears competing proposals on Myanmar policy shift with the Trump team reviewing policy ideas on Myanmar, focused on trade, critical minerals, and China competition, according to Reuters sources.
South Korea’s Finance Minister said they will do their best to derive the best trade agreement and will discuss shipbuilding, as well as other areas for longer-term cooperation with the US.
Chinese trade negotiations team arrives at the venue for a second day of talks with the US. 29th July 2025
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed with a mostly negative bias after a similar performance among global peers as participants digested trade developments and as risk events loom. ASX 200 marginally declined with weakness in telecoms and the top-weighted financial sector leading the descent, while there were few catalysts to provide an uplift. Nikkei 225 continued to give back previous trade-related spoils despite recent currency weakness. Japanese PM Ishiba remained defiant and noted there is no change in his intention to stay in office despite many reportedly calling for PM Ishiba’s resignation at Monday’s LDP meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured albeit to varying degrees with little information so far from the US-China talks in Sweden which are set to enter a second day
Top Asian News
US President Trump posted “The Fake News is reporting that I am SEEKING a “Summit” with President Xi of China. This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!”
Japan’s ruling LDP is said to hold a decision-making plenary meeting, according to FNN. It was separately reported that Japanese Finance Minister Kato said sales tax is vital for the social security system in Japan and it is inappropriate to lower the consumption tax rate.
China is to ‘tighten oversight’ in crowded manufacturing sectors such as EVs and solar power, according to SCMP citing a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) meeting on Monday.
Toyota (7203 JT) is to reportedly start EV production in Europe as early as 2028, according to Nikkei.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) opened mostly higher and continued to trade with an upward bias throughout the morning. Upside which follows a mostly higher session on Wall Street, but in contrast to mixed price action across the APAC region. European sectors hold a positive bias, with only a handful of industries residing in the red. Industrials take the top spot, lifted by significant post-earning strength in Philips (+13%). Basic Resources is found at the foot of the pile, with downside today driven by broadly lower metals prices.
Top European News
ECB staff accused ECB President Lagarde of running an ‘unaccountable legal fortress’ with members of its own staff accusing the central bank of behaving in an “anti-democratic” way in the latest escalation of tensions between the ECB and its employees, according to FT.
Deutsche Bank no longer expects the ECB to deliver rate cuts; now sees next policy move to be a rate hike at the end of 2026.
FX
After a steady start to the session, DXY is once again on the front foot with the index mechanically boosted by the weakening EUR. That being said, there are some reasons to be positive surrounding the US, mainly on the trade front with the US continuing to grind out deals with trading partners and facing no retaliation in doing so. Furthermore, markets are also anticipating a 90-day extension of the current 90-day US-China truce. Today, attention will turn towards the data slate with JOLTS and Consumer Confidence due on deck. DXY briefly made its way onto a 99 handle with a session peak at 99.05.
EUR/USD has very much picked up where it left off as the selling pressure in the pair continues following the EU-US trade agreement. Initially many desks were of the view that the removal of uncertainty would be deemed as a market positive. However, this narrative has since given way to negativity around the actual terms of the deal. This has been voiced by various national leaders such as German Chancellor Merz, who warned of the significant impact it will have on the German economy. Elsewhere, the June ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for June saw the 1-year inflation expectation decline to 2.6% from 2.8%. EUR/USD has taken out its 50DMA at 1.1570 with a current session low at 1.1527.
GBP is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers following the recent cross-related selling in EUR/GBP. ING writes that the recent moves appear to be driven more by positioning, “where opposing fiscal and monetary prospects between the eurozone and the UK had made long EUR/GBP one of the conviction trades this summer”. Cable has hit a multi-month low at 1.3315 with not much in the way of support seen until the 1.33 mark.
JPY is the only of the majors firmer/flat vs. the USD as a run of three consecutive losses vs. the USD pauses for breath. The extent of the rebound is relatively limited at this stage and as such, it is probably not worth reading too much into the price action. Political uncertainty in Japan remains rife with ongoing speculation over whether PM Ishiba will be forced to step down from his position following the recent upper house elections. USD/JPY ventured as high as 148.74 before pulling back below Monday’s 148.57 peak.
Antipodeans are on the backfoot today, swept away alongside the broadly firmer Dollar. Overnight, the Aussie and Kiwi were little changed and price action was fairly muted given the mixed risk appetite in the region.
Fixed Income
USTs are contained amid quiet newsflow. Had a slight upward bias in the early European morning but only a handful of ticks in magnitude at most. Marginal strength that faded as the morning progressed with the risk tone strong. For the US, the day’s main events include a number of data points such as JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, then Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker before US 7yr supply. Today, direction will be drawn from the mentioned data points though it remains to be seen just how much the market will move into a packed second half of the week with the FOMC on Wednesday, PCE on Thursday and then NFP on Friday.
Bunds are directionally in-fitting with USTs, though trading heavier than their US counterpart so far. Pressure that is seemingly a function of the outperformance seen in Bunds yesterday with the benchmark ending the day near its 129.79 peak. Spent the early European morning contained near that peak and Monday’s 129.73 close. Thereafter, as outlined in USTs above, Bunds came under pressure to a 129.43 low with downside of 30 ticks at most as the risk tone picked up. No real move to the German Bobl auction which was in-line with its introduction.
Gilts have been in the red and while they have, like Bunds, been lower by 30 ticks at most, for the most part, they have been trading marginally better than their German peer. However, ahead of the morning’s DMO auction this flipped slightly as Bunds came marginally off lows, following a slight pullback in the equity risk tone and potentially as yields reacted to session highs in crude, while Gilts proved relatively unreactive and remained just off lows. Supply was strong, with Gilts lifting by a handful of ticks post-auction and now trade roughly in-line with Bunds. Leaving Gilts 10 ticks off the 91.16 low but some 20 from the initial 91.46 high.
Most recently, the complex has bounced a touch following the UK/German supply, albeit still within ranges and with the directional bias still at play.
WTI and Brent began the European session around the unchanged mark, taking a breather following the upside seen in the prior session – as a reminder, the complex was boosted after US President Trump cut his deadline for Russian President Putin to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. More recently, the complex has seen some upside, currently trading at session highs; nothing behind the strength, but potentially as traders position themselves ahead of another appearance from US President Trump later today and in-fitting with the positive risk tone seen in the equities complex. Brent Oct’25 currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 69.18-69.83/bbl range.
Mixed/flat trade across precious metals, taking a breather from Monday’s price action in the absence of macro updates and in the run up to tomorrow’s FOMC. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,308.16-3,330.10/oz range, and within Monday’s USD 3,301.76-3,345.52/oz parameter.
Mostly lower trade across precious metals as upside is seemingly hampered by the stronger dollar. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,759.90-9,796.85/t range at the time of writing.
Kuwait Oil Minister says OPEC+ decisions are made based on market developments. Optimistic about oil market fundamentals, OPEC+ efforts target energy security and market balance.
US President Trump calls on the UK to incentivise drillers in the North Sea.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Jun P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
9:00 am: May FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.4%
10:00 am: Jun JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7500k, prior 7769k
For those with kids I hope you are surviving school holidays. My summer holidays were mostly spent playing in my garden with a football, cricket bat and my one golf club, whilst trying to ensure my window breaking tally was low. Yesterday I got home from work to find out my kids had just tried water skiing. How the world has changed.
The last 24 hours has seen the market try to ski across the turbulent waters behind the US/EU trade agreement boat. The evolving reaction to the deal was perhaps best captured by Volkswagen (VW) yesterday, which surged +3.02% in the opening minutes of yesterday’s session before closing -3.58% lower. It may have been a classic case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact,” especially with much of the optimism already priced in following last week’s Japan deal. VW, for instance, remains up +7.73% since that announcement. The DAX followed a similar path, opening around +0.94% higher before closing -1.02% lower.
What began as relief on Sunday quickly turned to frustration on Monday, as the narrative took hold that the EU had failed to secure meaningful concessions from the US. This was after pledging $750bn in energy imports, committing to large-scale purchases of US military equipment, and agreeing to zero tariffs on a range of US goods including autos. Whether these were genuinely new commitments or simply formalised versions of existing likely purchases is debatable, but the optics clearly favoured the US. The backlash across European diplomatic and business circles was swift. Spanish Prime Minster Sanchez said he would back the deal “without any enthusiasm” while French Prime Minister Bayrou even described the deal on X as more akin to a “submission”.
In response to the criticism, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reminded reporters yesterday to “not forget where we came from,” pointing to Trump’s original tariff threats of up to 50%. Still, concerns over Europe’s export sector loomed large, particularly for automakers. BMW (-3.28%) and Mercedes-Benz (-3.21%) also gave up early gains. The euro weakened, falling from a high of around 1.178 at the Asia open to 1.1589 by the US close, down -1.26% on the day – its worst performance since May. It’s steady overnight in Asia. And in a sign of how markets saw the deal favouring the US, the dollar gained against all G10 currencies.
Yesterday’s deal also left several ambiguous details. One is whether EU companies would really invest $600bn into the US economy, with EU officials admitting to Politico that this may not be achievable. Another is whether the 15% would also be the US tariff on EU pharma exports when the relevant Section 232 investigation concludes in the next few weeks. Pharma amounts to 25% of all EU exports to the US so it’s a material issue. Our European economists yesterday published a detailed take on the deal (link here), estimating the direct cost of 15% US tariffs at 0.5% of EU GDP. They have also updated their ECB call, seeing the current 2% as the likely terminal rate of the ECB’s easing cycle. While risks of another cut will persist for the coming months, they now expect the next ECB move to be a hike in late 2026.
US equities were relatively quiet as investors braced for a packed week of data and earnings. The S&P 500 (+0.02%) eked out a sixth consecutive record high, the longest such run since last July, even as over 70% of its constituents fell on the day. The upside for the S&P was dominated by the information technology sector (+0.77%) as the Mag-7 rose +0.79%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index gained +1.62% led by AMD (+4.32%). Big Tech takes centre stage with Microsoft and Meta reporting tomorrow, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The FOMC meets tomorrow, and we’ll also get core PCE, Q2 GDP, the ISM, and payrolls data before the week is out.
In bond markets, sentiment around the US-EU deal played out in divergent ways. European yields fell across the board, with 10yr bunds (-2.7bps), OATs (-3.5bps), and BTPs (-4.7bps) all moving lower. There were similar moves at the front end as the amount of ECB cuts priced by year-end actually inched up +1.5bps to 17bps despite the trade deal, showing a partial reversal of the moves that followed the ECB’s hawkish tone last week.
By contrast, 10yr US Treasury yields rose +2.2bps to 4.41% with the 30yr yield (+2.9bps to 4.96%) moving back within touching distance of 5%. Yields stayed near the session highs after a slightly soft 5yr auction. The Treasury’s latest quarterly borrowing estimates had little impact, coming largely in line with expectations, at $1.01trn for Q3 and a projected $590bn for Q4. We will learn the breakdown of this issuance plan with tomorrow’s QRA.
With less than three days to go until the August 1 deadline, more trade updates emerged. South Korea’s Finance Minister is set to meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Thursday to discuss a deal. Canada’s Prime Minister Carney said talks between the US and Canada “are at an intense phase”. At the UK-US summit press conference, Trump announced plans to impose a 15–20% tariff on countries that haven’t secured specific trade agreements with the US. And amid talks with China’s officials in Stockholm, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested that a 90-day extension of the trade truce with China was likely, confirming Chinese press reports over the weekend.
Oil prices spiked following comments by Trump that he may announce sanctions or secondary tariffs against Russia in 10-12 days’ time, shortening the 50-day deadline he had laid out in mid-July as he cited disappointment with President Putin’s failure to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Brent crude rose +2.34% to $70.04/bbl, closing above $70 for the first time since July 11.
Markets are mostly lower in Asia even as US futures are up a tenth of a percent or two. The Hang Seng (-0.95%) is leading the losses followed by the Nikkei (-0.86%) which is falling for the third consecutive session. The ASX and mainland Chinese markets are down around a tenth of a percent. The KOSPI (+0.35%) is one of the few winners overnight.
In Japan, a 2-year government bond auction saw robust demand, the highest since October, driven by more attractive yields near 2008 highs. The average bid-to-cover ratio was 4.47, compared to 3.90 in a sale from the previous month. This auction precedes the two-day BOJ’s policy meeting concluding Thursday, where the central bank is expected to hold rates steady. JGB are a basis point lower across most of the curve but the recently volatile 30yr yield is up just under three basis points.
Back in the US, the July Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index surprised to the upside yesterday at +0.9 (vs -9.0 expected). Today’s data calendar is packed, with June JOLTS, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, and the July Conference Board consumer confidence index all due. Investors will be combing through the numbers for clues ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. When asked in Scotland whether the Fed would cut rates this week, Trump said, “I think it has to.” Still, Fed futures continue to price in less than 1bp of easing.
Looking ahead to the rest of today, we’ll also get the Dallas Fed Services Activity index, May FHFA house price index, UK June net consumer credit and M4, France Q2 total jobseekers, and Sweden’s June GDP indicator. On the central bank front, the ECB will release its June consumer expectations survey. Earnings highlights include Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, L’Oréal, and AstraZeneca. On the auction front, the US will issue $30bn in 2-year FRNs and $44bn in 7-year notes.
2b European opening report
Stocks firmer & USD continues to gain ahead of JOLTS, consumer confidence and earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 05:46 AM
European bourses are broadly in the green, alongside strength in US futures ahead of a busy earnings slate.
USD is firmer, EUR/USD’s descent continues as markets digest the EU-US trade agreement.
USTs await data and a 7yr auction, Bunds are on the backfoot giving back some of the prior day’s upside.
Crude resumes upside while metals are hampered by the Dollar.
Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS Job Openings, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Services Revenues, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, ECB SCE, Supply from the US, Earnings from Kering, Banca Generali, Terna, Grifols, Visa, Marathon Digital, Starbucks, Booking, UnitedHealth, Sofi, Paypal, UPS, Spotify, Merck, Nucor, JetBlue, Procter & Gamble.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, says his understanding is that if a third country reaches an agreement with the US on lower sectoral tariffs, such as chips and pharma, the same rate would apply to Japan.
US President Trump posted “I’m in Scotland now after having just completed the EU Deal, and numerous others. The United States is doing GREAT, to put it mildly!!!”
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump will mull a few deals this week and set tariff rates on other nations by the end of the week, while he added the table is set with nations that have offered access and “Next week, we’re off”.
US President Trump’s administration reportedly hears competing proposals on Myanmar policy shift with the Trump team reviewing policy ideas on Myanmar, focused on trade, critical minerals, and China competition, according to Reuters sources.
South Korea’s Finance Minister said they will do their best to derive the best trade agreement and will discuss shipbuilding, as well as other areas for longer-term cooperation with the US.
Chinese trade negotiations team arrives at the venue for a second day of talks with the US. 29th July 2025
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) opened mostly higher and continued to trade with an upward bias throughout the morning. Upside which follows a mostly higher session on Wall Street, but in contrast to mixed price action across the APAC region.
European sectors hold a positive bias, with only a handful of industries residing in the red. Industrials take the top spot, lifted by significant post-earning strength in Philips (+13%). Basic Resources is found at the foot of the pile, with downside today driven by broadly lower metals prices.
US equity futures (ES +0.2% NQ +0.4% RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer across the board, with some modest outperformance in the NQ after again closing at record highs in the prior session.
Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) -2.0%: Expects EUR 1.2bln tariff hit in H2.
Philips (PHIA NA) +13.0%: Strong EBITDA beat & raises margin, guides adj. EBITA lower citing tariffs; optimistic on China and US.
FX
After a steady start to the session, DXY is once again on the front foot with the index mechanically boosted by the weakening EUR. That being said, there are some reasons to be positive surrounding the US, mainly on the trade front with the US continuing to grind out deals with trading partners and facing no retaliation in doing so. Furthermore, markets are also anticipating a 90-day extension of the current 90-day US-China truce. Today, attention will turn towards the data slate with JOLTS and Consumer Confidence due on deck. DXY briefly made its way onto a 99 handle with a session peak at 99.05.
EUR/USD has very much picked up where it left off as the selling pressure in the pair continues following the EU-US trade agreement. Initially many desks were of the view that the removal of uncertainty would be deemed as a market positive. However, this narrative has since given way to negativity around the actual terms of the deal. This has been voiced by various national leaders such as German Chancellor Merz, who warned of the significant impact it will have on the German economy. Elsewhere, the June ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for June saw the 1-year inflation expectation decline to 2.6% from 2.8%. EUR/USD has taken out its 50DMA at 1.1570 with a current session low at 1.1527.
GBP is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers following the recent cross-related selling in EUR/GBP. ING writes that the recent moves appear to be driven more by positioning, “where opposing fiscal and monetary prospects between the eurozone and the UK had made long EUR/GBP one of the conviction trades this summer”. Cable has hit a multi-month low at 1.3315 with not much in the way of support seen until the 1.33 mark.
JPY is the only of the majors firmer/flat vs. the USD as a run of three consecutive losses vs. the USD pauses for breath. The extent of the rebound is relatively limited at this stage and as such, it is probably not worth reading too much into the price action. Political uncertainty in Japan remains rife with ongoing speculation over whether PM Ishiba will be forced to step down from his position following the recent upper house elections. USD/JPY ventured as high as 148.74 before pulling back below Monday’s 148.57 peak.
Antipodeans are on the backfoot today, swept away alongside the broadly firmer Dollar. Overnight, the Aussie and Kiwi were little changed and price action was fairly muted given the mixed risk appetite in the region.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1511 vs exp. 7.1891 (Prev. 7.1467).
USTs are contained amid quiet newsflow. Had a slight upward bias in the early European morning but only a handful of ticks in magnitude at most. Marginal strength that faded as the morning progressed with the risk tone strong. For the US, the day’s main events include a number of data points such as JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, then Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker before US 7yr supply. Today, direction will be drawn from the mentioned data points though it remains to be seen just how much the market will move into a packed second half of the week with the FOMC on Wednesday, PCE on Thursday and then NFP on Friday.
Bunds are directionally in-fitting with USTs, though trading heavier than their US counterpart so far. Pressure that is seemingly a function of the outperformance seen in Bunds yesterday with the benchmark ending the day near its 129.79 peak. Spent the early European morning contained near that peak and Monday’s 129.73 close. Thereafter, as outlined in USTs above, Bunds came under pressure to a 129.43 low with downside of 30 ticks at most as the risk tone picked up. No real move to the German Bobl auction which was in-line with its introduction.
Gilts have been in the red and while they have, like Bunds, been lower by 30 ticks at most, for the most part, they have been trading marginally better than their German peer. However, ahead of the morning’s DMO auction this flipped slightly as Bunds came marginally off lows, following a slight pullback in the equity risk tone and potentially as yields reacted to session highs in crude, while Gilts proved relatively unreactive and remained just off lows. Supply was strong, with Gilts lifting by a handful of ticks post-auction and now trade roughly in-line with Bunds. Leaving Gilts 10 ticks off the 91.16 low but some 20 from the initial 91.46 high.
Most recently, the complex has bounced a touch following the UK/German supply, albeit still within ranges and with the directional bias still at play.
WTI and Brent began the European session around the unchanged mark, taking a breather following the upside seen in the prior session – as a reminder, the complex was boosted after US President Trump cut his deadline for Russian President Putin to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. More recently, the complex has seen some upside, currently trading at session highs; nothing behind the strength, but potentially as traders position themselves ahead of another appearance from US President Trump later today and in-fitting with the positive risk tone seen in the equities complex. Brent Oct’25 currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 69.18-69.83/bbl range.
Mixed/flat trade across precious metals, taking a breather from Monday’s price action in the absence of macro updates and in the run up to tomorrow’s FOMC. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,308.16-3,330.10/oz range, and within Monday’s USD 3,301.76-3,345.52/oz parameter.
Mostly lower trade across precious metals as upside is seemingly hampered by the stronger dollar. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,759.90-9,796.85/t range at the time of writing.
Kuwait Oil Minister says OPEC+ decisions are made based on market developments. Optimistic about oil market fundamentals, OPEC+ efforts target energy security and market balance.
US President Trump calls on the UK to incentivise drillers in the North Sea.
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Jul) 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB staff accused ECB President Lagarde of running an ‘unaccountable legal fortress’ with members of its own staff accusing the central bank of behaving in an “anti-democratic” way in the latest escalation of tensions between the ECB and its employees, according to FT.
Deutsche Bank no longer expects the ECB to deliver rate cuts; now sees next policy move to be a rate hike at the end of 2026.
GEOPOLITICS
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed US President Trump’s accusation of Tehran’s interference in Gaza ceasefire talks, according to Iran International.
US President Trump remains open to dialogue with North Korea leader Kim to achieve a fully denuclearised North Korea, according to the White House.
North Korea said it rejects any attempt to deny its status as a nuclear state and stated it is not beneficial for North Korea and the US as nuclear states to move in a confrontational direction, while it does not deny that North Korean leader Kim and US President Trump’s personal relationship is not bad.
US President Trump’s administration blocked Taiwan’s President Lai from a New York stopover en route to Central America in August after China raised objections with Washington about the visit, according to FT.
Thai army spokesman said Cambodia conducted attacks in several places after the ceasefire deadline although the acting PM later stated that the Thailand-Cambodia border is calm following small clashes. Thai Army spokesman says the commander of key Thai military force along the disputed border has met with the Cambodian counterpart.
EU has decided to temporarily stop financial assistance to Ukraine due to corruption concerns, according to Ekonomichina Pravda.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is essentially flat and trades around the USD 119k mark.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed with a mostly negative bias after a similar performance among global peers as participants digested trade developments and as risk events loom.
ASX 200 marginally declined with weakness in telecoms and the top-weighted financial sector leading the descent, while there were few catalysts to provide an uplift.
Nikkei 225 continued to give back previous trade-related spoils despite recent currency weakness. Japanese PM Ishiba remained defiant and noted there is no change in his intention to stay in office despite many reportedly calling for PM Ishiba’s resignation at Monday’s LDP meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured albeit to varying degrees with little information so far from the US-China talks in Sweden which are set to enter a second day
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US President Trump posted “The Fake News is reporting that I am SEEKING a “Summit” with President Xi of China. This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!”
Japan’s ruling LDP is said to hold a decision-making plenary meeting, according to FNN. It was separately reported that Japanese Finance Minister Kato said sales tax is vital for the social security system in Japan and it is inappropriate to lower the consumption tax rate.
China is to ‘tighten oversight’ in crowded manufacturing sectors such as EVs and solar power, according to SCMP citing a Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) meeting on Monday.
Toyota (7203 JT) is to reportedly start EV production in Europe as early as 2028, according to Nikkei.
2c Asian opening report
Lacklustre trade as the week’s risk events kick off – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 01:16 AM
APAC stocks traded with a mostly negative bias after a similar performance among global peers.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3%.
FX markets are contained, EUR/USD sits on a 1.15 handle, USD/JPY maintains its footing above the 148 mark.
Bund futures lacked direction overnight. Crude futures were little changed but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils.
Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish GDP Estimate, US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Services Revenues, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, ECB SCE, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were mixed with markets chopping to the US/EU trade announcement which was initially hailed by markets as a step in the right direction, but sentiment on the deal swiftly turned as European officials did not seem pleased with the deal, with German Chancellor Merz warning of the significant impact it will have on the German economy, while French President Macron had been calling for the implementation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, even after the deal was agreed. Overall, the deal is being framed as a win for the US but a loss for the EU, keeping tensions high despite the agreement. Elsewhere on trade, the third round of US/China talks resumed Monday and are set to continue for a second day, but negotiators made no remarks, while US sectors were mixed with Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Tech leading gains which helped keep the Nasdaq buoyed ahead of key tech earnings this week from AAPL, META, MSFT and AMZN. Conversely, all other sectors were red, with notable weakness in Real Estate, Materials and Utilities.
SPX 0.00% at 6,389, NDX +0.36% at 23,356, DJI -0.14% at 44,838, RUT -0.07% at 2,259.
US President Trump posted “I’m in Scotland now after having just completed the EU Deal, and numerous others. The United States is doing GREAT, to put it mildly!!!”
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump will mull a few deals this week and set tariff rates on other nations by the end of the week, while he added the table is set with nations that have offered access and “Next week, we’re off”.
German Chancellor Merz said US tariffs present a significant burden on the German economy and that time will show that EU tariffs are also not in the interests of the US.
France has reportedly been pushing EU members to unload its “trade bazooka” on the US — both before and after the EU struck its deal with US President Trump, according to The New York Post.
French wine and spirits federation said regarding the EU-US trade deal that disaster has been avoided but the coming days will be crucial for the sector and the deal is expected to confirm duty-free trade in spirits.
US President Trump’s administration reportedly hears competing proposals on Myanmar policy shift with the Trump team reviewing policy ideas on Myanmar, focused on trade, critical minerals, and China competition, according to Reuters sources.
South Korea’s Finance Minister said they will do their best to derive the best trade agreement and will discuss shipbuilding, as well as other areas for longer-term cooperation with the US.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Quarterly Financing Estimates showed US Treasury expects to borrow USD 1.007tln in privately held net marketable debt during the July-September 2025 quarter (prev. exp. USD 554bln), assuming an end-of-quarter cash balance of USD 850bln (prev. exp. USD 850bln).
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed with a mostly negative bias after a similar performance among global peers as participants digested trade developments and as risk events loom.
ASX 200 marginally declined with weakness in telecoms and the top-weighted financial sector leading the descent, while there were few catalysts to provide an uplift.
Nikkei 225 continued to give back previous trade-related spoils despite recent currency weakness. Japanese PM Ishiba remained defiant and noted there is no change in his intention to stay in office despite many reportedly calling for PM Ishiba’s resignation at Monday’s LDP meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured albeit to varying degrees with little information so far from the US-China talks in Sweden which are set to enter a second day.
US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) eked slight gains after yesterday’s indecisive performance on Wall St and with participants awaiting a deluge of key earnings and this week’s major risk events.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3%.
FX
DXY retained a firm footing above the 98.00 level after advancing at the start of the week on the back of the US-EU trade agreement, which is seen as a big win for President Trump, while the US is also holding talks with China in Stockholm. Nonetheless, the data calendar was quiet on Monday but begins to pick up heading into a deluge of risk events this week.
EUR/USD marginally extended on the prior day’s lows after suffering amid the dollar strength and despite the EU/US trade agreement, with Germany’s Merz warning that the German economy faces substantial damage from the tariffs agreed, while France has been pushing EU members to unload its “trade bazooka” on the US, before and after the deal was struck.
GBP/USD remains lacklustre after slipping beneath the 1.3400 handle, while there was a lack of developments from UK PM Starmer’s meeting with US President Trump in Scotland.
USD/JPY slightly eased back after ascending to north of the 148.00 level on the dollar rally and widening yield differentials.
Antipodeans were little changed with price action kept rangebound amid the mixed risk appetite and a quiet calendar.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1511 vs exp. 7.1891 (Prev. 7.1467).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures mildly rebounded after whipsawing yesterday as participants digested the EU/US trade deal and ahead of several key risk events, while this week’s front-loaded supply was mixed and the quarterly financing estimates for July-September were lifted but had little impact on price action.
Bund futures lacked direction after the indecisive performance following the US-EU trade deal and with a EUR 4.5bln Bobl issuance due later.
10yr JGB futures remained afloat amid the downbeat risk tone in Japan and with a muted reaction to the mostly stronger-than-previous 2yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were little changed but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils after rallying on trade developments and with US President Trump cutting the timeframe for Russian President Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Iraqi Kurdistan oil output is at around 120k BPD and is seen rising to 280k BPD by mid-August.
Peru’s President announced a deal with PetroEcuador to connect the Ecuadorean oil fields with the Peruvian pipeline for transport to Peru’s Talara refinery.
Russia imposed a ban on gasoline exports for producers until August 31st with the decision made to preserve stability during a period of high demand, according to RIA.
Spot gold was rangebound after suffering from a firmer dollar which also thwarted a recovery attempt.
Copper futures remained lacklustre after recent declines and with price action not helped by the mixed risk appetite.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin saw two-way price action and ultimately gained after recovering from a brief dip beneath the USD 118k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US President Trump posted “The Fake News is reporting that I am SEEKING a “Summit” with President Xi of China. This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!”
Japan’s ruling LDP is said to hold a decision-making plenary meeting, according to FNN. It was separately reported that Japanese Finance Minister Kato said sales tax is vital for the social security system in Japan and it is inappropriate to lower the consumption tax rate.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Iran’s Foreign Minister said “If aggression is repeated, we will not hesitate to react in a more decisive manner and in a way that will be IMPOSSIBLE to cover up.”. The Foreign Minister stated that “Iran knows exactly what happened during the recent American-Israeli aggression, both to us and our adversaries—including the extent of blows that are still being censored”, while he added Iran will never respond to threats and intimidation.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed US President Trump’s accusation of Tehran’s interference in Gaza ceasefire talks, according to Iran International.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said US President Trump’s comments are timely at a point when things can change “thanks to strength used for the sake of genuine peace”, while he added that Trump showed a clear position and expressed determination in remarks on Russia and Putin.
Russia’s Medvedev said US President Trump is playing a game of ultimatums with Russia and that this is a “step towards war”, while he added that Trump should remember that Russia is not Israel or Iran.
OTHER
US President Trump remains open to dialogue with North Korea leader Kim to achieve a fully denuclearised North Korea, according to the White House.
North Korea said it rejects any attempt to deny its status as a nuclear state and stated it is not beneficial for North Korea and the US as nuclear states to move in a confrontational direction, while it does not deny that North Korean leader Kim and US President Trump’s personal relationship is not bad.
Taiwan’s President Lai is set to delay his proposed trip that included a stopover in the US, according to Reuters. It was later reported that the Trump administration blocked Taiwan’s President Lai from a New York stopover en route to Central America in August after China raised objections with Washington about the visit, according to FT.
Thai army spokesman said Cambodia conducted attacks in several places after the ceasefire deadline although the acting PM later stated that the Thailand-Cambodia border is calm following small clashes. Thai Army spokesman says the commander of key Thai military force along the disputed border has met with the Cambodian counterpart.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB staff accused ECB President Lagarde of running an ‘unaccountable legal fortress’ with members of its own staff accusing the central bank of behaving in an “anti-democratic” way in the latest escalation of tensions between the ECB and its employees, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Jul) 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%)
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
Trump may go for this:
(zerohedge)
Korea Pitches Multibillion-Dollar “Make American Shipbuilding Great Again” As US Tariff Deadline Looms
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 05:45 AM
A Trump-imposed firm August 1st deadline looms for South Korea to reach a finalized trade agreement with the US, or else a 25% tariff could be imposed on America’s closest regional ally, which hosts major US military bases, and is heavily reliant on US ‘protection’ from North Korea and its nuclear arsenal.
The country’s Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun-cheol and Foreign Minister Cho Hyun are set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio next week, and Seoul appears ready to pull out all the stops. “The government has pledged to devote its full efforts to concluding trade negotiations with Washington before the August 1 deadline,” a recent Korean government statement from the office of the presidency pledged.
The Koreans appear ready to get creative in satisfying Trump, as the weekend statementconfirmed Washington’s “strong interest in the shipbuilding sector” and agreed to work towards mutual cooperation on that front. Fresh Monday reports indicate South Korea is ready to go all-in, offering a major proposal to seal a last-minute agreement to avoid a dreaded 25% tariff rate.
Yonhap News has reported a multibillion-dollar proposed project dubbed “Make American Shipbuilding Great Again” – or MASGA – but without offering much more in the way of details.
“We confirmed the US side’s strong interest in the shipbuilding sector and the two countries agreed to work together to develop mutually acceptable terms that include shipbuilding cooperation,” South Korea’s presidential office said.
While Korean officials have been warning media to not jump the gun, and to report sensitive negotiations responsibly, the reality is that the US ally has something America actually needs – the ability for major investment as well as technical expertise and experience in overhauling the nation’s shipyards.
This has been one of the Trump administration’s top America First priorities, and though the US has long been a leading global naval power, it also desperately needs its navy modernized – a massive, costly, and time-consuming endeavor.
And South Korea is among few rare nations which actually has the capability to do it, as one regional publication underscores:
Korea’s shipbuilding sector has been regarded as the country’s unique leverage in the tariff talks with the US as its world-class capabilities can contribute to the Trump administration’s goal of reviving American shipbuilding.
Two of Korea’s leading shipbuilding conglomerates — HD Hyundai and Hanwha Group — have already been ramping up their investments in the US and bolstering partnerships with American companies in the shipbuilding sector.
HD Hyundai joined hands with US shipyard operator Edison Chouest Offshore to build medium-sized container vessels at the American company’s shipyard by 2028.
To review of Trump’s early prioritization of this sector, an April 9 executive order highlights that America’s shipbuilding capacity has been hampered and weakened by “decades of Government neglect.”
This has not only led to the decline of a once strong US industrial base, but has resulted in “simultaneously empowering our adversaries and eroding United States national security.”
“Both our allies and our strategic competitors produce ships for a fraction of the cost needed in the United States,” the executive order said, and called for “the United States to revitalize and rebuild domestic maritime industries and workforce to promote national security and economic prosperity.”
The White House is likely to be keenly interested in pursuing MASGA, as it offers something tangible and speaks the language of Trump’s America First, and desire to bring a forgotten industry back home.
END
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA/
CHINA/USA
US, China Agree To Extend Tariff Truce
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 12:21 PM
As previously reported in what appeared to be a leak by the South China Morning Post, moments ago US and Chinese negotiators have concluded their latest round of trade talks in Stockholm with an agreement to extend their tariff truce, Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang told reporters, without giving details of the extension.
Talks were candid and in-depth, he said Tuesday, and both sides will continue close communication going forward. The meetings followed previous rounds between the world’s two biggest economies in Geneva in May and in London in June
Without extension, US tariffs on China ratchet back to 145% on Aug. 12
END
4/ European affairs
EU
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HRS
iSRAEL VS IRAN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/GAZA/UN
it is a publicity stunt; Israel cannot have a two state solution with Hamas in Gaza
(JerusalemPost)
US calls UN Israel two-state solution conference a ‘publicity stunt’
“We must ensure that it does not become another exercise in well-meaning rhetoric,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in opening remarks.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa speaks during a United Nations high level conference hosted by France and Saudi Arabia to work towards a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians at U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S., July 28, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/JEENAH MOON)ByREUTERSJULY 28, 2025 19:27Updated: JULY 28, 2025 21:12
The US on Monday rejected as a “publicity stunt” a United Nations conference that brought dozens of ministers together to work toward a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
“This is a publicity stunt that comes in the middle of delicate diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Far from promoting peace, the conference will prolong the war, embolden Hamas, and reward its obstruction and undermine real-world efforts to achieve peace,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said in a statement.
The 193-member UN General Assembly decided in September last year that such a conference would be held in 2025. Hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, the conference was postponed in June after Israel attacked Iran.
Addressing the conference, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud urged all countries to support the conference goal of a roadmap laying out the parameters to a Palestinian state while ensuring Israel’s security.
“We must ensure that it does not become another exercise in well-meaning rhetoric,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in opening remarks.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, French Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, and Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud at a UN conference in New York on July 28, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/JEENAH MOON)
“It can and must serve as a decisive turning point – one that catalyzes irreversible progress towards ending the occupation and realizing our shared aspiration for a viable two-state solution.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told the conference: “We must work on the ways and means to go from the end of the war in Gaza to the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, at a time when this war is jeopardizing the stability and security of the entire region.”
Barrot told the newspaper La Tribune Dimanche in an interview published on Sunday that he will use the conference this week to push other countries to join France in recognizing a Palestinian state.
France intends to recognize a Palestinian state in September at the annual gathering of world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron said last week.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, an official with the Palestinian Authority, called on all countries to “recognize the state of Palestine without delay,” adding: “The path to peace starts with recognizing the state of Palestine and preserving it from destruction.”
“The rights of all peoples must be respected, the sovereignty of all states must be ensured. Palestine, and its people can no longer be the exception,” he told the conference.
US, Israel boycott conference
The US will not attend the conference at the United Nations, said a State Department spokesperson, describing it as “a gift to Hamas, which continues to reject ceasefire proposals accepted by Israel that would lead to the release of hostages and bring calm in Gaza.”
The State Department spokesperson added that Washington voted against the General Assembly last year, calling for the conference, and would “not support actions that jeopardize the prospect for a long-term, peaceful resolution to the conflict.”
Israel is also not taking part in the conference.
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said on Monday: “This conference does not promote a solution, but rather deepens the illusion. Instead of demanding the release of the hostages and working to dismantle Hamas’s reign of terror, the conference organizers are engaging in discussions and plenaries that are disconnected from reality.”
UN support of two-state solution
The UN has long endorsed a vision of two states living side by side within secure and recognized borders. Palestinians want a state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.
The UN General Assembly in May last year overwhelmingly backed a Palestinian bid to become a full UN member by recognizing it as qualified to join and recommending the UN Security Council “reconsider the matter favorably.” The resolution garnered 143 votes in favor and nine against.
The General Assembly vote was a global survey of support for the Palestinian bid to become a full UN member – a move that would effectively recognize a Palestinian state – after the US vetoed it in the UN Security Council several weeks earlier.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Israel has no choice but to expand its operation as ceasefire talks stall
(JerusalemPost)
‘No choice but to expand Gaza op.’ if talks continue to stall, source tells ‘Post’ – exclusive
“If there’s no advance in the talks – there will be no choice but to expand the military operation,” the source said.
IDF troops operate in the West Bank, July 25, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByAMICHAI STEINJULY 28, 2025 19:54Updated: JULY 29, 2025 01:06
Israel will consider expanding its military operation in Gaza if talks continue to stall, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
“If there’s no advance in the talks – there will be no choice but to expand the military operation,” the source said.
The military will present alternative operational plans for Gaza to the small cabinet meeting this evening.
This comes shortly after Opposition Leader MK Yair Lapid criticised the government’s current strategy in Gaza.
According to Lapid, “The Israeli government no longer knows how to justify why soldiers continue to die in Gaza.”
“If we do not end the war now, the hostages will not return, the IDF will continue to lose its best fighters, the humanitarian disaster will intensify, and the world will shut its doors to Israelis. This is not inevitable. There is another way,” the opposition leader said. He mentioned a plan that included a comprehensive hostage deal, in which “Israel should exit Gaza, with the IDF positioned around the perimeter and operating from there to dismantle Hamas. Gaza would be administered by a coalition of moderate Arab nations led by Egypt.”
Eliav Breuer contributed to this report.
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/AID
Hamas continues to sabotage aid trucks and firing on its on citizens
(JerusalemPost)
Trucks looted, Hamas enraged: The new reality of humanitarian aid in Gaza
Gazan reports have indicated that the purpose of bringing in the humanitarian aid is to ‘flood’ the markets, leading to lower prices and ensuring the residents do not attack aid trucks.
Al-Sahaba market in the Gaza Strip, July 28, 2025.(photo credit: Majdi Fathi / TPS)ByLIRAN AHARONIJULY 28, 2025 20:50
Humanitarian aid trucks sent from Egypt and Jordan entered the Gaza Strip on Monday as Israel’s humanitarian pause entered its second day.
The Jordanian Air Force, in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, airdropped supplies into Gaza as well.
The humanitarian ceasefire was implemented to allow aid entering the Gaza Strip to be organized in warehouses and then distributed to the residents who need it.
However, there are still reports from Gaza of trucks being looted, both by civilians and Hamas terrorists.
Additionally, based on updates regarding the prices of goods in the Strip, it is apparent that the humanitarian aid entering Gaza has not yet affected the prices of goods, meaning those goods are not being sold at affordable prices to the local population.
Reports from inside Gaza have indicated that the purpose of bringing in the humanitarian aid is to ‘flood’ the markets, leading to lower prices and ensuring the residents do not attack aid trucks.
This would allow an Egyptian security company to return and secure the trucks.
Hamas has pushed for humanitarian aid to be conducted by UN organizations, primarily because of the ties revealed between those organizations and Hamas.
As a terrorist organization, Hamas has used the humanitarian aid as leverage to renew negotiations and continue to intensify its demands.
“There is no meaning to continuing talks under siege, destruction, and the starvation of Gaza’s residents,” Hamas’ chief negotiator and the head of its Gaza operations, Khalil Al-Hayya, said in a recorded statement released Sunday.
Hayya also stated that the immediate entry of food and medicine into the strip in a dignified manner for its people is a serious and genuine expression of commitment to continuing negotiations.
Ultimately, the residents of Gaza have understood that the reality is different than what Hamas pushes.
“We want a solution for a ceasefire, for humanitarian aid, and to stop the bloodshed. These are our demands.” one Gazan resident heading to receive humanitarian aid said.
Israel will begin annexing parts of the Gaza Strip if Hamas again rejects efforts by mediators to broker a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, according to the Maariv daily, which says Jerusalem will give the negotiations another chance.
The unsourced report says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented the proposal while meeting with a small group of ministers, who decided to establish a special entity for administering annexed areas.
A separate report in the Haaretz newspaper says Netanyahu presented the plan as part of efforts to keep Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from pulling his far-right Religious Zionism party out of the government.
END
GAZA//AID
PM: ‘Situation in Gaza difficult,’ Israel working to ensure ‘large amounts of aid’ enter Strip
Qatari PM says Doha still continuing to push for ceasefire-hostage release deal * Iran vows to respond in a ‘more decisive manner’ if attacked again by US or Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a Christian conference in Jerusalem, on July 27, 2025. (Chaim Goldberg/ Flash90)
In an English-language statement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office says that Israel “will continue to work with international agencies, as well as the US and European nations to ensure that large amounts of humanitarian aid flows into the Gaza Strip.”
The PMO argues that Israel is already allowing significant amounts of food, water and medicine into Gaza every day.
Israel repeats its charge that Hamas steals aid from Gazans, including by shooting them.
“While the situation in Gaza is difficult and Israel has been working to ensure aid delivery,” the PMO continues, “Hamas benefits from attempting to fuel the perception of a humanitarian crisis. As such, they have been releasing unverified numbers to the news media while circulating images that are carefully staged or manipulated by Hamas.”
“We’ll continue to act responsibly, as we always have, and we’ll continue to seek the return of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas,” promises Netanyahu’s office. “That is the only way to secure peace for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
END
ISRAEL HAMAS/EUROPE
Sa’ar: European FMs admit pressure on Israel was a mistake, emboldens Hamas
The foreign minister added that several European countries today have “a huge Muslim population” that affects government policies, but this wouldn’t allow Israel to “commit suicide.”
Israeli Minister of foreign affairs Gideon Saar hold a press conference at the Ministry of foreign affairs in Jerusalem, May 22, 2025.(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 29, 2025 12:00Updated: JULY 29, 2025 13:45
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar on Tuesday said that “more than one European foreign minister” has told him that signing the letter condemning Israel’s war in Gaza was a mistake, and it allowed Hamas to embolden its stance in ceasefire talks.
The letter was signed by Britain and more than 20 other countries, calling for an immediate end to the war in Gaza and criticizing the Israeli government’s aid delivery model after hundreds of Palestinians were killed near sites distributing food.
“International pressure on Israel is only hardening Hamas’s stance; global pressure must be on Hamas to free the hostages and lay down its arms,” he said.
Sa’ar added that military pressure in Gaza is effective, but it is not the only option, adding that Israel is also ready to use diplomacy.
Egypt and Qatar, which mediate Gaza hostage-ceasefire talks, said that there has been progress in the talks, but the latest round of negotiations in Doha broke off last week without a deal in sight.
A Palestinian man carries aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza Strip, on Sunday. (credit: Mahmoud Issa/Reuters)
“Hamas not only steals aid, they are profiting from it and using funds as a financial resource during the war,” Sa’ar added.
“We are witnessing a distorted campaign of international pressure against Israel over recent days,” and noting that this campaign is fueling rising antisemitism.
Sa’ar addresses claims Israel starving Gazans, calling situation ‘tough’
The foreign minister also addressed the recent claims that Israel has been forcefully starving Gazans, saying that while the situation is “tough,” the idea that Israel has implemented a “starvation policy” is a lie.
“Reality is the opposite – Israel is working ‘very hard under very complicated circumstances’ to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.”
Regarding the recognition of Palestinian statehood, Sa’ar said, “Establishing a Palestinian state today is establishing a Hamas state. A Jihadist state.”
He criticized France’s foreign minister, who, while in New York on Monday, said that Europe “must pressure Israel to accept a ‘two-state solution.”
“But this cannot and will not lead Israel to commit suicide,” Sa’ar said.
end
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
IDF to continue attacking Hezbollah until it disarms, even if leads to another war
Since the November 2024 ceasefire, the IDF has detected around 456 new threats and attacked Hezbollah over 500 times.
The IDF has said that it will continue regular attacks on Hezbollah – despite the November 2024 ceasefire – until it disarms, even if this leads to another war.
A significant part of this calculation is the ongoing substantial harm that the IDF has caused to Hezbollah’s ability to threaten Israel to date.
If pre-war Hezbollah had around 150,000 rockets and tens of thousands of launchers for firing rockets, as of now, the number of launchers is down to a couple of thousand, with the total number of rockets down between 70-80%.
In practical terms, the implications are staggering given that this means that if pre-war Hezbollah could easily fire around 1,500 rockets at a time, now the Lebanese terror group can only fire some dozens at a time.
Hezbollah also has lost virtually all of its multiple rocket launching platforms.
This completely changes how Hezbollah operates, and limits its options for coordinated attacks, since it only has individual rocket launchers, which makes each rocket launch a strenuous and exposed effort.
Hezbollah retains a small number of long-range precision rockets, but would struggle to fire them given that the areas where it would need to move them to in order to fire could leave them exposed to IDF attacks, and many of these areas have already been attacked in the past.
Hezbollah’s loss of Syria for smuggling weapons has hit the group hard in any rearming efforts.
The new Syrian Sunni regime is blocking the vast majority of Iran’s weapons smuggling efforts from Syria to Hezbollah on its own initiative and without any Israeli assistance as part of its opposition to the spread of Shiite influence.
The IDF has attacked some cross-border positions between Syria and Lebanon as many as five times to determine whether they still represent a smuggling threat.
IDF sources expressed some hope that Lebanon might eventually get Hezbollah to disarm, and are confident for now that Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem is heavily deterred and intimidated from launching a rocket attack on Israel.
On the other hand, IDF sources said Iran continues to stream around one billion dollars into Hezbollah to prop it up, whereas the West is only sending Lebanon up to $250 million.
Also, the military said it has attacked Hezbollah over 500 times since the November 2024 ceasefire.
Some 230 of the attacks were killing Hezbollah terrorists, 90 were attacks on rocket launchers, 20 were attacks on Hezbollah bases or outposts, 40 were attacks on weapons storage areas, and three were attacks on Hezbollah’s special forces Radwan training camps.
These numbers, added to the Hezbollah terrorists killed before the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, mean that 4,000-5,000 operatives are dead and around 9,000 are wounded badly enough to be permanently out of fighting.
Hezbollah manpower, munitions, threat to Israel significantly reduced since before war
The IDF said that this meant over half of Hezbollah’s standing army of 25,000 is out of service.
Before the war, Hezbollah was also said to have tens of thousands more reservist fighters, but IDF sources estimate that only 10% of them are still active now.
This is due to fear of being killed, or their commanders being killed, leaving no one really in touch with them, or a lack of weapons and arms.
Also, the Radwan forces are down to 2,500-3,000 from their pre-war 6,000 numbers.
They have also been reassigned to internal security issues, given how much smaller Hezbollah’s forces are across the board, as opposed to being focused on potential attacks.
Further, the IDF has said that, at least for now, there is no Hezbollah invasion threat, given how far they are being kept from the border.
This does not mean that a small group of Hezbollah fighters could not surprise Israel in one or two spots.
But the scenario of 6,000 Radwan invaders striking Israel all over the north simultaneously is not and will not be a threat for some time to come.
The IDF is complimentary to the US on handling the dispute mechanism for resolving Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire, as opposed to UNIFIL pre-war.
The IDF has submitted 1,263 violations. Of these, around 456 were new threats, many of which the IDF in the end dealt with, and 666 were passed on to the Lebanese army, which dealt with 546 of them, or 82%, properly.
This is a high percentage of success, and the IDF credits the US for helping the Lebanese army follow through against Hezbollah.
At the same time, the IDF still acts whenever needed, and some violations, which have multiple aspects to them, are dealt with by a mix of the IDF, the mechanism, and the Lebanese army.
END
HOUTHIS
Houthis escalating attacks on ships
(JerusalemPost)
Houthis To Escalate Attacks On Ships Linked To Firms Dealing With Israel ‘Regardless Of Nationality’
Monday, Jul 28, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Just last week, Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled his Israeli negotiating team from Doha – which is certainly not a first instance – as talks broke down, also after the US representative mentioned dissatisfaction with Hamas’ position.
On Sunday night, the Houthis of Yemen declared it will target merchant ships belonging to any company that does business with Israeli ports. This part is nothing new, but what is a renewed escalation is that the Houthis statement made clear this will be regardless of nationality as part of the next phase of its operations.
This Red Sea war has been going for a long time, and has featured direct ballistic missile attacks on Tel Aviv – which have been waning in the last weeks, but the resulting shipping disruptions have wreaked havoc on a vital global transit point through which an estimated $1 trillion in goods usually passes each year.
The Houthi statement said they had “decided to escalate their military support operations and begin implementing the fourth phase of the naval blockade” against Israel. This also as international reports have acknowledged rising famine and deaths from hunger in the Gaza Strip.
The fresh statement warns the Iran-backed militants would target “all ships belonging to any company that deals with the ports of the Israeli enemy, regardless of the nationality of that company, and in any location within the reach of our armed forces.” This is regardless of any final destination, it warned.
International companies and governments must pressure Israel to stop the war in Gaza and lift its blockade on the Palestinian territory “if they want to avoid this escalation” – the statement warns further.
Escalation has indeed been on the rise, despite months ago Trump ordering the US Navy to wind down and withdraw from its war with the Houthis, while pressuring the Europeans to take a more active posture in the theatre.
Already in July the Houthis have attacked and sank two Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carriers – identified as the Magic Seas and the Eternity C. The Houthis have boasted of these assaults by issuing high-production quality films detailing the operations, which even involved boarding the vessels.
These were deadly attacks and have resulted in four crew members dead and 11 more taken captive – though thankfully 22 crew members of the Magic Seas were able to be rescued.
As for the latest round of failed negotiations hosted in Qatar, reports indicated that Hamas offered to trade 10 Israeli hostages for 200 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences.
Israel reportedly pushed for a 2-kilometer demilitarized buffer inside the Strip, while Hamas is said to have countered with one kilometer. All of this may be moot from the start, given much more land mass has already been utterly destroyed, and Israel is believed to be paving the way for eventual new settlements.
The fiery and loudly-issued new threat against Red Sea shipping:
❗️ Yemen announces new military ESCALATION Will target ALL ships tied to companies working with Israeli ports in ANY location ‘Regardless of nationality… regardless of destination’
Global firms WARNED: cut ties with Israel or face consequences — Houthi spox
The Israeli government has meanwhile opted for a military solution, and the complete eradication of Gaza. From the start Hamas has insisted on the removal of all Israeli military troops, which has been a non-starter for Netanyahu.
By and large, Washington has stuck by its closest Mideast ally, amid growing international criticisms linked to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, and a nightmarish humanitarian crisis. President Trump on Monday in comments from Scotland issued a rare admission that Gazans are indeed starving, and that we need to “feed the kids”.
end
ISRAEL GAZA
(zerohedge)
do not think that this is a good strategy
End Game: Netanyahu Now Plans To Annex Gaza, Bowing To Extremist Members Of Coalition
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 09:30 AM
Having rendered much of Gaza uninhabitable and displacing a huge proportion of its population, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to propose a plan by which Israel will begin claiming parts of Gaza to be Israeli territory, with an eye on eventually seizing all of it. The scheme — which is said to have President Trump’s backing though also certain to trigger international condemnation — is aimed at preventing his extremist ruling coalition from splintering, according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which first reported on it.
Under the scheme, Israel will give Gaza political and militant group Hamas a short deadline for accepting a ceasefire. After Hamas refuses to accept Netanyahu’s terms (which will likely be written to guarantee refusal) Israel will start annexing portions of Gaza, starting with the buffer zone it has created along the perimeter of the territory, before proceeding to claim more land in the north. Eventually, all of Gaza will be claimed as Israeli land, fulfilling the wishes of extremist ministers who are vital to Netanyahu’s ruling coalition.
One of those powerful coalition members is Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionism party, which seeks to move the Israeli state closer to a theocracy. Smotrich is himself a West Bank settler who has long agitated for the annexing of that territory. In May, Smotrich told a settler conference that “Gaza will be totally destroyed,” with all 2.3 million residents “concentrated” in the extreme south, where they will be “totally despairing” with “no hope” and “looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”
Smotrich opposed Netanyahu’s decision — in the face of rising malnutrition and starvation in Gaza accompanied by growing global condemnation — to even slightly increase the flow of food and medicine into the besieged strip. So did another minister of note: Itamar Ben Gvir, who leads the National Security Ministry, called Netanyahu’s move “a capitulation to Hamas’s deceitful campaign,” and reiterated his demand that nothing at all be allowed to flow into Gaza, and for the IDF to conquer the territory and encourage the Palestinians to move to other countries. To get a sense of his extremism, consider that Ben Gvir infamously adorned his home with a photo of Baruch Goldstein, who mass-murdered 28 Muslims in the 1994 Cave of the Patriarchs massacre.
Compounding the anger of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, Netanyahu made the decision to facilitate a small increase in aid flow (largely cosmetic) on Saturday — at a time when the two were supposedly unavailable for consultation because they both observe Shabbat. Ben Gvir called that an excuse for acting without him, saying, “I am available all Shabbat, 24/7, because I am the national security minister and receive updates all the time.”
Netanyahu’s annexation scheme is designed to ease that latest political firestorm on his right, with particular focus on Smotrich, who reportedly told Netanyahu he will “remain in the government for the time being,” and will “judge by actions” as to whether the promised annexation of Gaza proceeds.
"The Israelis don't want us to film out of the [airplane] window at the devastation inside Gaza. But I've spent 10 minutes looking at it with my own eyes and I can tell you communities in the north of Gaza, that I knew well, are flat. There's nothing left of them." — Jeremy Bowen pic.twitter.com/hFBKTZSAir
— paulusthewoodgnome 🇺🇦 🦋 💂🏻♂️ (@woodgnomology) July 28, 2025
According to Haaretz, Netanyahu assured his ministers that the annexation plan has been presented to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and that the Trump administration supports it. Annexation could encourage more Western governments to recognize Palestine as a state. On Thursday, French President Macron announced that he intends to recognize Palestine at the September United Nations General Assembly, and Monday brought reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has swiftly moved closer to making the same move, under pressure from his Labour Party and growing global consensus that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
WEST BANK
RUSSIA VS IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
Interesting!
Putin Informs Bibi He’s Ready To Mediate On Iran’s Nuclear Program As Trump Makes More Threats
Monday, Jul 28, 2025 – 11:00 PM
Russia has long offered the West to mediate with Iran over its nuclear program. After earlier this month batting down reports claiming that Moscow is on board with the Trump demand of zero enrichment (the Kremlin rejected that this is its stance), President Vladimir Putin is once again vying to play chief diplomat in the Middle East, a region where Russia’s military has been somewhat on the retreat in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster from Damascus.
In a Monday telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Putin emphasized Moscow’s willingness to engage in efforts to seek a negotiated resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue – which has been source of threats and counter-threats between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
A Kremlin readout stated, “In light of the recent escalation in the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, Russia has expressed its readiness to assist in every possible way to facilitate a diplomatic solution concerning Iran’s nuclear program.”
This month, Putin has been having meetings with Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, to discuss Iran’s nuclear program as well as the recent 12-day conflict with Israel.
Russia has reiterated its support for Iran’s right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy – again, contrary to the claims of recent Western sources. However, the Kremlin has stopped short of offering military assistance, at a moment more Israeli action could loom.
The UK, France, and Germany have meanwhile announced renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran in Istanbul, warning that UN sanctions could be reimposed if progress isn’t made.
Tehran has on the other hand remained firm that it is its sovereign right to enrich uranium. Though admitting that some key nuclear facilities are damaged or largely destroyed in the wake of the US attacks which capped the 12-day war, Iranian leaders have constantly signaled that they still have the capacity to enrich.
President Trump on Monday issued yet another warning directed at Tehran:
Speaking during a news conference in Scotland beside the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said that Iran was “sending very bad signals, very nasty signals”.
“And they shouldn’t be doing that,” he said. “We wiped out their nuclear possibilities. They can start again. If they do, we’ll wipe it out faster than you can wave your finger at it.”
“We will do that gladly, openly and gladly,” he said.
Of course, it’s still anything but certain whether their nuclear capabilities were completely ‘wiped out’. Many analysts have pointed to the likelihood that much uranium was moved before the US strikes, or that there are bunkers so far underground that the biggest and most penetrating bombs in America’s arsenal can’t reach them.
So far, Israel has refrained from launching any renewed strikes – despite that Iran’s air defenses over much of the country were reportedly demolished, giving Israel freedom of the skies – likely because Trump wants the ceasefire to hold, as he can present himself as ‘peacemaker’ in the region.
END
THEN:
RUSSIA/UKRAINE USA
RUSSIA does not like the new threat from Trump. You will recall that Trump lowered his 50 day
“must have a peace deal” to 10 or 12 days or else huge increase in sanctins. Medvedev calls it a step towards war and then they unleash more deadly missile attacks on Ukraine
(zerohedge)
“Step Towards War”: Kremlin Slams Trump Ultimatum, Unleashes More Deadly Missile Attacks On Ukraine
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 12:25 PM
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued the Kremlin’s response to President Trump’s Monday announcement from Scotland that he’s reducing a deadline for Russia to agree a peace settlement from 50 days to 10 or 12 days, citing ‘disappointment’ in Putin not ending or at least winding down the war.
Medvedev, who serves as the current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote on X that the US President was playing “the ultimatum game” with Moscow, which we should note is of course nuclear-armed, and that each new threat like this is a “step towards war”.
Medvedev warned: “Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran” and thus that “Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”
America’s own loudmouth hawk later in the day Monday responded with his own challenge pushing back. Here’s what the senator from South Carolina said on X:
“To those in Russia who believe that President Trump is not serious about ending the bloodbath between Russia and Ukraine: You and your customers will soon be sadly mistaken. You will also soon see that Joe Biden is no longer president,” Lindsey Graham said, adding: “Get to the peace table.”
Medvedev then responded to this on X, telling “gramps” to instead get busy working on America First. “Negotiations will end when all the objectives of our military operation have been achieved. Work on America first, gramps!” he said.
Trump’s new deadline means that he could impose fresh sanctions by somewhere in early August: possibly Aug. 7-9, as opposed to what was initially the 50-day window which would have ended on September 2.
How Russia’s RT presented the whole back-and-forth:
Naturally, Zelensky is hailing Trump’s tougher new timeline and ultimatum. “Everyone needs peace – Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and responsible leaders across the globe,” Zelensky said on Telegram. “Everyone except Russia.”
In follow-up, on Tuesday he commented on deadly overnight Russian attacks which included at least two two Iskander-M ballistic missiles along with 37 Shahed-type strike drones and as well as decoys.
Bilenkivska Correctional Facility was among locations struck, resulting in at least 17 dead and the hospitalization of over 40 inmates.
Zelensky announced that 22 people were killed in total in these latest Russian attacks on dozens of on cities, towns and villages. As if appealing directly for Trump to do more, he emphasized, “These were conscious, deliberate strikes – not accidental.”
A Russian airstrike on a prison in southeastern Ukraine overnight killed 17 inmates and wounded dozens of others, Kyiv said on Tuesday, after Washington pressured Russia to end its invasion. https://t.co/mgDfQ2f1Iipic.twitter.com/xvOgL9MzHb
Still, Ukraine is having its own problems after controversial Zelensky action seen as eroding corruption oversight in the country. The EU is poised to cut off funding. An EU official told European Pravda that Brussels has indeed issued a clear warning: “Yes, the EU has warned Kyiv. If the law is not passed, loans financed through revenues from frozen Russian assets under the ERA program will stop – we will simply stop disbursing them. Funding from the EBRD and EIB will also be suspended,” the official stated in reference to key oversight offices which were gutted by Zelensky.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICT
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Musk’s Neuralink Brain Chip Enables Paralysed Woman to Write, Draw Using Her MindA woman who has been fully paralyzed for 20 years has become the first female Neuralink patient to control a computer using only her thoughts, marking a major milestone for Elon Musk’s brain implant company.Audrey Crews, a Louisiana resident paralyzed in a car crash at age 16, shared her breakthrough online, including a video of her writing her name on …READ THE FULL REPORT
UK Police Forms ‘Elite Team’ to Monitor Social Media for ‘Anti-Migrant’ PostsThe UK government has created a new elite police division tasked with monitoring social media for so-called “anti-migrant sentiment,” as tensions rise across the country over unchecked migration and rising crime.The unit, assembled under Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will operate under the Home Office and aims to gather “social media intelligence” to track potential civil unrest. Officers will be …READ THE FULL REPORT
Delta Pilot Arrested by Federal Agents Moments After Landing Plane at San Francisco AirportA Delta Airlines pilot was arrested by federal agents Saturday night moments after landing in San Francisco, shocking passengers and flight crew.The flight had just arrived from Minneapolis shortly after 9:30 p.m. when at least 10 federal agents — including officers from Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) — boarded the aircraft and took the pilot into custody.Arrest Linked to Child Exploitation …READ THE FULL REPORT
NEWSWIZE
LATEST NEWS
Swalwell Mocked Over Viral X PostRep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) is getting dragged online after his latest attempt at relatability didn’t go as planned.Swalwell posted a video of himself casually bench pressing 135 pounds while complaining that Republicans had sent Congress home. “I should be working right now,” he says into the camera.“I should be at the Capitol. I should be in a suit.”Instead, he blames …READ MORE
Top Dem Exposed in Shocking ReportRep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-TX) controlling nature and ego were exposed in a recent Atlantic profile.The Texas congresswoman was seen scolding colleagues over scheduling and food, according to journalist Elaine Godfrey.Godfrey noted Crockett’s obsession with her image, revealing that her phone lock screen is a photo of herself.The journalist’s access was revoked after she contacted other lawmakers for their views on …READ MORE
Trump Admin Launches Shocking Discrimination ProbeThe Trump administration has launched an investigation into Duke University over allegations that the school’s law journal discriminated based on race, color, or national origin when selecting editors.The Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) opened the probe after the Washington Free Beacon reported that the Duke Law Journal distributed a packet exclusively to members of law school affinity …READ MORE
DOJ Unveils Shocking News Against Anti-Trump JudgeThe Department of Justice filed an official complaint accusing U.S. District Court Chief Judge James Boasberg of misconduct.The complaint, written by Attorney General Pam Bondi’s Chief of Staff, Chad Mizelle, was addressed to Chief Judge Sri Srinivasan of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.“The Department of Justice respectfully submits this complaint alleging misconduct by U.S. District Court …READ MORE
Trump Reveals Insane Epstein RevelationPresident Donald Trump admitted his falling out with Jeffrey Epstein happened after Epstein “stole workers” from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in the early 2000s.“He did something that was inappropriate,” Trump said during a press Q&A on Monday in Scotland.“He stole people that work for me. I said, ‘Don’t ever do that again.’ He did it again, and I threw him out …READ MORE
Polar opposite understandings of the Sino-Indo prisoner’s dilemma lie at the core of their calculations…
Trump announced on Monday that he was shortening his 50-day deadline to Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine to “about 10 or 12 days from today”, thus meaning that he plans to impose up to 100% tariffs on all its trading partners by 7-9 August, but likely with exceptions such as the EU that he just subjugated.
Turkiye might also be excluded given its attempt to expand its influence eastward at Russia’s expense, as could minor US trade partners like the Central Asian Republics as long as they curtail trade with Russia.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether he’ll tariff China and India, if they don’t cut off or at least curtail their resource-centric imports from Russia, that is. They’re Russia’s top trading partners, which collectively form the RIC core of BRICS, yet they trade more with the US (with whom they’re in ongoing trade negotiations) than with Russia. China and India are also some of the world’s largest economies so the US’ imposition of 100% tariffs could destabilize the global economy and raise prices for Americans.
[ZH: Oil prices are spiking on the reiterated headlines today from Trump sanctions on Russian oil…]
Trump just clinched a lopsided trade deal with the EU that turned it into the US’ largest-ever vassal state, which might embolden him to tariff China and/or India despite their ongoing trade talks if they defy him should he believe that this new arrangement can help reduce the blowback to the US. He’s therefore calculating that China and/or India will at least curtail energy imports from Russia, whether voluntarily or under tariff duress, thus hitting its coffers and making Putin more pliable to concessions with time.
For his part, Putin is calculating that Russia can still achieve its goals in full – controlling the entirety of the disputed regions, demilitarizing Ukraine, denazifying it, and then restoring its constitutional neutrality – even if China and/or India curtail trade with it, though he’s not sure they will. Each is under tremendous pressure from the US in their own way so he might expect them to defy it. If both do so, then they might patch up their problems, thus turning RIC into a force to be reckoned with by the US.
Trump’s and Putin’s calculations have the prisoner’s dilemma in common. Trump’s tariff threats and the other arms-related pillars of his new three-pronged policy towards Ukraine are correspondingly intended to coerce economic-political concessions from China and India and geopolitical-security ones from Russia. He expects at least one of BRICS’ Asian anchors to even only partially comply, thus enabling him to exacerbate the Sino-Indo rivalry for the US’ hegemonic benefit and then put more pressure on Russia.
None of them wants to be the last to reach a deal with the US, Trump believes, and accordingly have much less negotiating flexibility than ever. Putin conversely believes that China and India are more concerned about the consequences of the other becoming Russia’s top partner if their country complies with the US but their rival doesn’t (as explained here) than with the consequences of Trump’s threatened tariffs. He’s also confident that the US can’t stop Russia from achieving its goals in any case.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1563 DOWN 0.0033 PTS OR 33 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.60 UP 0.044 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3339 DOWN .0019 OR 19 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3749 UP 0.0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 11.77 PTS OR 0.37%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 37.68 PTS OR 0.15%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.04%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 37.68 PTS OR 0.15%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.77 PTS OR 0.33%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.04 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 323.72 PTS OR 0.79%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3326.60
silver:$38.21
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.59 UP 19 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.119% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.554% DOWN 2 FULL POINTS AND 00/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.328 UP 0 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.530 DOWN 1/3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7010 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1526 DOWN 0.0071 OR 71 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.72 UP 0.27 OR YEN IS DOWN 27 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6430 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0032 OR 32 BASIS pts to 1.3767
Stocks Drop, Bonds & Oil Pop As China Agrees To Tariff Truce, Trump Reiterates Russia Threats
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 08:00 PM
This week’s heavy macro data deluge started today with a mixed bag (hard data dipped while soft data outperformed) as consumer confidence ticked up along with a smaller than expected trade deficit. Inflation expectations dipped but JOLTS also fell as did US home prices…
Source: Bloomberg
On the big picture risks (trade policy and geopolitical risk) front, some more positivity hit around 1200ET as “*CHINA PLANS TO EXTEND TRUCE OF ITS COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST US” but then around 1340ET, the following HL sent stocks lower: “*TRUMP GIVES RUSSIA 10 DAYS TO REACH AGREEMENT WITH UKRAINE”. Bessent also said that the US is likely to apply sanctions on Russian oil.
Source: Bloomberg
Overnight strength was immediately sold at the US cash open. By the close, all the majors were lower, legging down towards the lows of the day in the last 30 minutes of the day. Small Caps were the laggards on the day, followed by The Dow (hit by UNH and BA). Nasdqq outperformed but was unable to hold gains and the S&P 500 closed red for the first time in 7 days…
Under the hood, the chaotic retail rampage of the last few weeks has started to crack.
Meme stocks are down 15% in 3 days from their highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Momo names are unable to hold any squeeze/bounce…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks have tumbled in the last three days…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were well bid across the curve with the short-end lagging ( 2Y -4bps, 30Y -10bps) as a very strong 7Y auction extended the decline in yields today…
Source: Bloomberg
The long bond yield broke back below its 50DMA, to its lowest close since the start of July…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, rate-cut expectations improved (dovishly) today with both 2025 and 2026 expectations rising…
Source: Bloomberg
…but the market is expecting nothing at all from The Fed tomorrow (with September and December the most likely to see cuts this year)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices spiked higher (with WTI nearing $70) on the Trump-Russia sanctions threat headlines…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended marginally higher, but well off its intraday highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rallied back modestly from yesterday’s weakness, but was unable to retest its 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin dipped to test $117k and bounced but ended lower on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin off the support from the 2019 lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as the August 1st tariff pause deadline looms, stocks are currently outperforming Trump’s first term tariff tantrum…
Source: Bloomberg
…can it hold through this week’s Fab4 earnings, the FOMC, and Friday’s payrolls print?
Source: Bloomberg
The vol markets seem pretty sure that calm will return next week, but don’t forget that August has historically been a month of outflows and challenged seasonality.
Since 1996, August has seen a median of >10bps of outflows as a total of AUM.
USA DATA RELEASES
US Home Prices Plunge For 3rd Straight Month In May (Led By Tampa)
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 09:09 AM
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities fell for the 3rd straight month in May (the latest data available from S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller data released this morning).
The 0.34% MoM drop matches the plunge in May and is equal to the largest drop since Dec 2022, dragging YoY price growth down to +2.79% (the weakest since Aug 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
“National home prices were just 2.3% higher than a year ago, the smallest increase since July 2023, and nearly all of that gain occurred in the most recent six months,” said Nicholas Godec, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
” The spring market lifted prices modestly, but not enough to suggest sustained acceleration.”
Given the trend higher in (lagged) mortgage rates, the next couple of months do not bode well…
Source: Bloomberg
Home prices are now lower on a YoY basis in Denver, San Francisco, Dallas, and Tampa (-2.4% YoY)…
However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going continue to lag for the next couple of months before re-accelerating once again…
Source: Bloomberg
So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices… and now prices are tumbling again as you pause… Well played Fed!!
end
a big win for Trump
(zerohedge)
US Goods Trade Deficit Shrinks More Than All Expectations In June
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 08:55 AM
The US merchandise-trade deficit shrank in June by more than expected, reflecting a broad decline in imports as the pre-tariff rush to secure goods unwinds.
The shortfall in goods trade narrowed 10.8% from the prior month to $86 billion…
Source: Bloomberg
This deficit was smaller than all economists’ forecasts…
Source: Bloomberg
Imports fell 4.2% to $264.2 billion, including the smallest value of inbound shipments of consumer goods since September 2020.
Imports of industrial supplies and motor vehicles also fell. US exports of merchandise decreased 0.6%.
Source: Bloomberg
In addition to the merchandise-trade data, the latest advance economic indicators report showed retail inventories rose 0.3% last month, the most since September and reflecting a surge at car dealers. Stockpiles at wholesalers climbed 0.2%.
More complete June trade figures that include the balance on the services account are due Aug. 5, but for now, this seems like a win for President Trump.
AND THEN THIS:
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Continues To Rebound As Inflation Fears Tumble
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2025 – 10:15 AM
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June (revised up by 2.2 points).
The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – fell 1.5 points to 131.5.
The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – rose 4.5 points to 74.4.
Source: Bloomberg
But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month.
“In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.
All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income.
Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed.
They were a tad more positive about current business conditions in July than in June.
“However,” Guichard notes, “their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021.
Notably, 18.9% of consumers indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January.”
Source: Bloomberg
Guichard added:
“Consumers’ write-in responses showed that tariffs remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices.
In addition, references to high prices and inflation rose in July, even though consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from 5.9% in June and a peak of 7% in April.
A number of survey respondents mentioned the recent budget reconciliation legislation passed by Congress (referring to it as the “Big Beautiful Bill”)—with some consumers praising its potential positive economic impact and others expressing concerns. However, the bill and its implications were relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused on in July.”
On the bright side, expectations for higher rates and lower stocks tumbled in July (the latter had reached 14 year highs in April after Liberation Day chaos)
Source: Bloomberg
July’s modest gain in confidence was driven by consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups except those earning the least (with household annual income below $15K). By partisan affiliation, confidence improved in July among Republican consumers and was stable for Democrats and Independents.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
AS IT HAPPENED:
Multiple People Shot At Blackstone’s New York Headquarters; Shooter Killed Himself
Monday, Jul 28, 2025 – 07:25 PM
Watch live feed here:
* * *
Update (1930ET): It is being reported that the shooter has been found dead on the 33rd floor of the building. He died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound.
* * *
An active shooter has been reported at 345 Park Avenue, the site of Blackstone’s headquarters as well as some offices belonging to the National Football League, an NYPD senior official told Bloomberg News.
According to a social media report, the perpetrator is a Middle Eastern man with a bulletproof vest who is “running around with an AR-15 and shooting.”
Multiple people shot included a police officer in Manhattan.
There’s an active shooter as we speak.
A Middle Eastern perpetrator with a bulletproof vest is running around with a A.R. 15 and shooting. pic.twitter.com/B9PxL0IcRQ
According to ABC, at least one civilian and one police officer have been shot, while Bloomberg reports that at least three people have been taken to a hospital, according to a fire department official.
🚨 BREAKING UPDATE: Active shooter situation on Park Avenue between E. 51st & E. 52nd Streets in Midtown Manhattan.
🚨One person has been shot
🚨Multiple 911 calls flooding in
🚨Hundreds of people are sheltering in place and hiding
The gunman who shot five people, killing four, in a Midtown Manhattan office tower home to Blackstone and the National Football League was identified late Monday as 27-year-old Shane Devon Tamura. He reportedly had grievances with the NFL but ended up on the wrong floor during the attack, ultimately killing himself on Rudin Management’s floor.
Authorities say Tamura drove from Las Vegas to 345 Park Ave. in Manhattan. According to a CNN source, a suicide note was found in Tamura’s pocket expressing Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE)-related struggles. One victim remains in critical condition, and an NFL employee was seriously injured.
Here’s what CNN sources are saying:
Shooter Identified: Shane Devon Tamura, 27, from Las Vegas, drove to New York and carried out a deadly shooting at a Midtown Manhattan office tower. He opened fire in the lobby, then continued shooting on the 33rd floor before fatally shooting himself in the chest.
Mental Health & Motive: Tamura had a documented mental health history. A suicide note found in his pocket cited possible CTE-related struggles and grievances with the NFL, writing: “You can’t go against the NFL, they’ll squash you.” He asked for his brain to be studied. Tamura had played competitive football in his youth.
The Attack: Tamura mistakenly arrived on the 33rd floor after following a woman into an elevator. The NFL’s offices, his apparent target, are located on the fifth floor.
Weapon & Gear: He carried an AR-15-style rifle. Police also recovered a revolver, ammo, magazines, medication, and a rifle case from his vehicle. He had a Nevada concealed carry permit.
Latest headlines (courtesy of CNN):
Suspect’s calm walk-up to office tower suggests he knew he was going to die, retired NYPD captain says
High school friend of gunman says he never caused problems, was a “great teammate”
An NFL employee was seriously injured in the attack, says staff memo
Officials pay respects to slain NYPD officer as his body is transferred from Manhattan hospital
Park Avenue attack is the deadliest shooting in New York City in 25 years
END
Look what happend in California when they raised the minimum wage to $20.00: many lost their jobs.
(Jacobsen)
California’s $20 Minimum Wage Killed 18,000 Restaurant Jobs; New Study Finds
Perhaps the greatest example that good policymaking intentions go awry is the minimum wage. Proponents of increasing the minimum wage argue that doing so will help the poor.
If we could snap our fingers and make the poor suddenly rich, there would be no reason to object. Unfortunately, in a world of scarce resources, this is not a possibility. The minimum wage actually tends to make many poor workers worse off and increases unemployment. A recent study on California minimum wage increases demonstrates that fact (yet again).
Professors Jeffrey Clemens, Jonathan Meer, and Olivia Edwards recently put out a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that demonstrates some adverse effects of minimum wage laws.
The paper covers California’s 2023 law, which enacted a $20 minimum wage for restaurants that had at least 60 locations in the US.
This was a significant increase from the fast food minimum wage for California, which had been $16 (though some localities had higher minimum wages). They examine the impact of the law on employment and find:
Fast food employment in California had declined by 2.64 percent, whereas employment in non-minimum-wage-intensive industries had increased by 0.58 percent. This contrasts with the rest of the United States, where fast food restaurant employment had increased marginally while employment in all non-minimum-wage-intensive industries had risen by one percent.
The authors estimate that the negative employment effect is anywhere from -2.3 to -3.9 percent, (as compared to all states, or just to states with no minimum wage changes). Relative to a world where California did not increase the minimum wage, 18,000 jobs were lost.
This is a large number, but it’s even more jarring when you realize how limited this law change was. Again, this bill only applied to restaurants with over 60 locations, so many other low-wage jobs were exempted. Even within the restaurant industry, implementation was limited.
In other words, those 18,000 more unemployed workers were the victims of a relatively limited change. This large drop puts talks of a national “living wage” — often proposed as $15 or more — in serious doubt. California has a relatively high cost of living, which means all else being constant, a $20 minimum wage would have an even larger unemployment effect where average wages are lower.
This result is another nail in the coffin for minimum wage arguments.
As recently as 2022, a survey of research on the effects of the minimum wage was conducted. Authors David Neumark and Peter Shirley found, “there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature.”
What’s behind this consistent trend? Basic economics. When governments set a minimum wage above what businesses are paying, it has two primary effects:
An increase in the number of people who want to work (due to the higher wage)
A decrease in the number of workers businesses want to pay (as they are more expensive)
Imagine the prevailing wage in the restaurant industry is $15. Restaurants will have hired as many workers as they can use whose skills produce at least $15 of revenue per hour. After the new minimum is instituted, workers who produce less than $20 cost more than they add to revenue. Businesses cut back hours or substitute other factors (like self-checkout stations) for workers.
When the number of job seekers is greater than the number of available jobs, we have unemployment. This is usually cured by job-seekers being willing to work for lower wages (and in a wide range of productive roles), but minimum wage laws make this illegal.
So why, if the economic research and real-world results are so clear, do minimum wage laws persist?
Unfortunately, policies like the minimum wage, which sound compassionate, will often be popular even if they don’t work.
Like voters, populist politicians — Democrat and Republican — may desire to improve the well-being of the poor, but the laws of economics and the attendant research confirm again and again that an increase in the minimum wage is terrible for the poor. For at least some — perhaps 18,000 in California — it takes away their opportunity to make any money at all.
Unfortunately, politicians have an incentive to ignore economic laws in favor of nice-sounding slogans about improving the lives of the least advantaged. Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises famously pointed out the role of the economist as an empirical counterweight:
It is impossible to understand the history of economic thought if one does not pay attention to the fact that economics as such is a challenge to the conceit of those in power. An economist can never be a favorite of autocrats and demagogues. With them he is always the mischief-maker.
Economic evidence should serve as a valuable prophylactic against the utopian visions of politicians.
The Rise Of Zohran Mamdani: Why The Radical Left Is Doubling Down On Extreme Socialism
Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old New York State Assembly member and self-described democratic socialist, stunned political insiders by clinching the June primary over establishment figures like Andrew Cuomo. His platform is unapologetically bold:
Mamdani has also courted controversy, refusing to denounce the phrase “globalize the Intifada” (he calls it a “human-rights slogan”) and later insisting he “oppose[s] any incitement to violence.”
He’s promised to use city power to enforce the International Criminal Court warrant and, in a May forum, labeled India’s Prime Minister Modi a “war criminal” over the Gujarat riots.
Here’s what I want you to notice: This is not policy tinkering. Rather, it’s a strategic escalation.
Mamdani’s rise reflects the classic arc of radicalization:
Start with popular grievances, then double‑down into bold, uncompromising extremes.
And for those watching closely, this is a familiar arc: We’re now face-to-face with Batman’s nefarious arch-nemesis, The Joker, unleashed. The Joker’s policies and rhetoric are designed to incite total chaos, in the hopes of entirely disrupting society.
Joker politics: From order to chaos
Batman, of course, represents unflinching law, order and justice. He’s a vigilante, but a vigilante with more respect for the law than most police and politicians in his fictional realm of Gotham City. Batman serves as a potent conservative force, reining in excesses and punishing evildoers in a quest to make Gotham City a safer, better place for its citizens.
The Joker, on the other hand, represents pure chaos and the unhinged, unadulterated desire for power. Not traditional power (the means to control) but a more primal force: The ancient power to corrupt and destroy. The Joker is a pure psychopath who believes his evil is universal and that normal people hide behind “social constructs” to avoid admitting they want to burn down the world just like he does. He revels in the despair of calamity and the fall of moral righteousness.
I’m specifically reminded of Christopher Nolan’s film Batman Begins in which Commissioner Gordon first warns Batman about “escalation” and reveals the calling card of the Joker:
“What about escalation? …We start carrying semi-automatics, they buy automatics. We start wearing Kevlar, they buy armor piercing rounds…”
The left’s rules: Never admit, always escalate
In my analysis of the political left and their behavior I’ve noted many times that they seem random and chaotic but they do follow certain rules.
Rule #1: Leftists never admit they are wrong.
Rule #2: Leftists ALWAYS double down.
In other words, when they think they are losing political power, they will escalate – not tactfully or with dialogue, but with increasingly radical proposals meant to overwhelm and destabilize. Diplomacy is not in their nature; domination is.
This pattern of escalation is exactly why so many conservatives, moderates, and independents gravitated to Donald Trump. His blunt, unapologetic stance against the left’s chaos stood in stark contrast to the incrementalism of establishment politicians. After all, this same chaos gave us pandemic lockdowns, ideological indoctrination in public schools, unchecked street violence, and now a financial environment where interest payments on government debt are climbing by a trillion dollars every few months.
Ask a committed leftist why they’re doing this, and you’ll rarely get a coherent policy rationale. Their answer, directly or indirectly, is usually some variation of: “burn it all down.” That’s not hyperbole – it’s the ethos.
And it’s precisely why Trump’s promise to take a wrecking ball to this agenda gained such traction.
In the early days of this shift, the left didn’t quite know how to respond. Their sources of power – federal funding, NGOs, and corporate backing – began to dry up. Their sphere of influence shrank to deep-blue strongholds like L.A., New York, and Seattle, where progressive officials still shield them from the consequences of their actions.
Which brings us back to New York. What we’re witnessing with the rising popularity of Zohran Mamdani isn’t just a last gasp. It’s a new wave of escalation.
Doubling down on socialism
For years, Democrats avoided openly aligning with socialism, understanding that most Americans – even those on the left – view it with suspicion. The term itself was treated like political poison, and whenever conservatives raised concerns about creeping socialist or Marxist policies, they were dismissed as alarmists or conspiracy theorists.
That tactic is now being abandoned. Increasingly, Democratic candidates and activists are embracing far-left economics and authoritarian state planning not as a hidden agenda, but as a central part of their platform. They’re not softening their rhetoric or disguising their goals – they’re taking off their masks and leaning into the very ideologies they once denied.
Zohran Mamdani is a case in point. Though initially criticized by party insiders as too extreme, his support continues to grow – particularly among young, urban progressives. His defenders argue that he’s bringing moral clarity to the conversation. But look closer at his policies and you’ll see a familiar pattern of failed central planning: rent freezes that reduce supply, punitive taxes that drive out investment, and costly housing programs that may take a decade to deliver results – if ever.
The likely outcome? A mass exodus of middle- and upper-income earners, an eroding tax base, and declining services for those left behind. (It’s already happened in cities like San Francisco and Chicago.) Mamdani’s platform risks pushing New York down the same path.
Still, instead of tapping the brakes, progressive media outlets are promoting him as the party’s future. And Democratic leaders, rather than correcting course after their 2024 collapse, seem ready to double down.
Why? Because in their worldview, admitting error would violate Rule #1.
What comes next
Again, socialism, Marxism, and communism stand in direct opposition to the principles the left most despises: free markets, faith-based morality, national pride, and Western cultural heritage. Whether they realize it or not, many progressives are searching for a radical counterbalance to traditional American values—an ideological Joker to destroy what remains of our Batman institutions.
Could they self-correct? Sure. They could admit their policies have failed, that their ideals are out of step with the majority, and that their efforts to deconstruct American norms have caused more harm than good. But that would mean violating Rule #1.
So instead, as populist sentiment continues to build and Americans grow increasingly skeptical of globalist priorities, the left is likely to retreat further into ideological extremism. They may even gain short-term momentum. We’ve already seen it elsewhere:
Canada: The backlash against Justin Trudeau’s failed leadership has not led to moderation but rather opened the door to Mark Carney – an economic globalist poised to carry the same agenda with a sharper edge.
Germany: following frustration with center-left coalitions, far-left parties like Die Linke have gained traction by proposing radical redistribution schemes and aggressive climate mandates.
Australia: the rise of the Greens and far-left independents in reaction to center-left Labor compromises has shifted national debates toward more radical territory.
This pattern is global: when progressive leaders fail, the left doesn’t pivot to moderation. They seek out even more uncompromising ideologues to carry their banner.
This is the cycle: when progressivism fails, it doesn’t reform – it doubles down.
So what does this mean for the rest of us?
I believe it’s prudent to prepare for both political and economic turbulence. Expect more civil unrest, more authoritarian proposals, and more erosion of economic freedom.
But that doesn’t mean we’re powerless.
One of the most effective things individuals can do is protect their financial future from systemic instability. When institutions crumble or fiat currencies falter, history has shown that physical assets like gold and silver can help insulate savings from the chaos. While some prepare for societal collapse with bunkers and bug-out bags, the more strategic move may simply be this: transfer a portion of your wealth into something that doesn’t burn.
In uncertain times, gold isn’t just a hedge – it’s Batman’s utility belt. It’s what you reach for when chaos reigns and the usual tools of defense no longer work. When the Joker lights the fuse, physical gold and silver serve as a fortress – real assets that endure, even in a world set ablaze by ideological arson.
END
wow!! Gina Haspel and British Intelligence behind Russiagate:
Peter Schweitzer…
In this explosive episode, Barbara Boyd and Peter Schweitzer uncover the shocking involvement of CIA Director Gina Haspel and British Intelligence in the Russiagate coup against Donald Trump. They highlight how the real crime scene was London, with the British Empire at the core of the attack on American sovereignty. Boyd delves into the historical context starting from the collapse of the Soviet Union, illustrating the interconnected actions leading up to 2016. Join us as we expose the media’s misinformation and present the untold story of the global coup and its implications for the future.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
The King Report for July 29, 2025 Issue 7543
Independent View of the News
ESUs opened sharply higher on Sunday night on the US-EU trade deal plus buying for: The Monday and Fed Week Rallies and earning seasons.
ESUs eventually hit a daily high of 6457.75 at 2:06 ET. They then commenced a decline to 6433.50 at 6:53 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening took ESUs to 6440.25 at 8:52 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESUs slid to a daily low of 6424.25 at 9:38 ET. Why was there selling when everything looked so jiggy?
The Nikkei, which opened higher on Monday (Sunday night US time), quickly declined sharply and then continued to decline into its close. Why? Japanese politics? Big Hint: The dollar soared. FX traders see European and Asian economies growing less than the US. Some see recession in those lands.
The Street and pundit class narrative has transitioned from tariffs are inflationary to tariffs are a tax that will cause recessions. This is almost as bad as the lies/misinformation spewed about Covid and vaxxes! Japan’s Ishiba Stays Defiant Amid Stepped Up Calls to Resign – BBG
ESUs then traded in a tight range until the pattern buying for the 10:00 ET retail buying appeared. The retail rally was modest. ESUs hit 6434.00 at 10:15 ET and then broke down. ESUs eventually hit a daily low of 6408.75 at 14:06 ET. A last-hour A-B-C rally pushed ESUs to 6425.25 at 16:00 ET.
@GlobalMktObserv: This is a GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS: Japan’s 40-year bond auction just saw its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.127. 40-year Yield surged to a record 3.375%. Cracks are forming in the world’s 3rd-largest bond market.https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1949666117686792660
Saudi Arabia may hike September oil prices to Asia for second monthhttp://reut.rs/4l6eGKD
@PeterMallouk: According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined by 19% over the past 5 years. This is the sort of stat that calls into question everything the government puts out around inflation.https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/1949819378394169500/photo/1
@kashyap286: According to the Bureau of Lying Statisticians, the cost of health insurance has gone down.They say this with a straight face because they don’t use premiums paid, but rather insurance company profits, as a proxy. Profits go down during periods of cost-push inflation, so calculating the index this way is a clever way of hiding the real numbers. (The BLS also removed coffee from the CPI because prices soared). The gold price is a better barometer of inflation than the CPI.
Positive aspects of previous session Nasdaq rallied moderately because Fangs rallied moderately on pattern buying Gold declined modestly.
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks were weak when they should have been strong. USUs declined moderately. Gasoline and oil rallied sharply.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar soared! Who does this harm? Who does this hurt?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6388.88 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6401.07; 6375.79
@susancrabtree: Secret Service SCOOP: Security Breach on Trump’s Scotland Trip—A Dallas USSS special agent tried to smuggle his wife on a Secret Service car plane accompanying President Trump’s security detail to Scotland. The agent flew his wife to Maryland, then she even received the official Secret Service country brief at the hotel and rode the bus to the distinguished visitor lounge at Joint Base Andrews before she was discovered and told to leave, five Secret Service sources tell @RCPolitics
Union Pacific Said to Bid About $320/Shr for Norfolk Southern – BBG 20:23 ET
Today – Though everything was positive for a stock market rally on Monday, stocks slid except for the over-owned Fangs/Mag 7 stocks. The usual suspects will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside, abetted by the rally for the FOMC Meeting, which begins today.
In Monday’s missive we warned that if the S&P 500 breaches 6400 and enthusiastic buying does NOT appear, traders will sell. The S&P 500 high for Monday is 6401.07. This dynamic is still germane.
Railroad and possibly land transportation stocks should be strong on the UNP-NSC deal. Pharmaceutical and possibly related healthcare stocks should decline on DJT’s EO to reduce drug prices.
Expected Impact Results: UNH 4.59, PG 1.42, BA -1.40, UPS 1.56, PYPL 1.30, AMT 2.43, MRK 2.02, MDLZ .68, V 2.85, SBUX .65
Expected Economic Data: June Advance Goods Trade -$98.0B; June Wholesale Inventories -0.1% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.2%; May FHFA House Price Index -0.2% m/m; S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.2% m/m & 2.99% y/y; June JOLTS Job Openings 7.55m; July Conf Board Consumer Confidence 96; 2-day FOMC begins
ESUs are +5.00; NQUs are +43.50; USUs are +5/32; and gold is -1.50 at 21:05 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6099; 100-day MA: 5826; 150-day MA: 5880; 200-day MA: 5890 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,311; 100-day MA: 42,156; 150-day MA: 42,646; 200-day MA: 42,848 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6389.77 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5890.09 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6312.10 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 637687 triggers a sell signal
@paulsperry_: NY Times Pulitzer winner Jeff Gerth: “The media isn’t looking for Russiagate scoops nor will they fairly present the ones others get if they reflect poorly on their prior reporting. They’re in a defensive posture & arent inclined to report deeply on anything that helps Trump”
John Bolton Buried Memo That Could’ve Cleared Trump Sooner: Paul Sperry John Bolton, while he was President Trump’s National Security Adviser, was handed a classified memo explaining how John Brennan fabricated the Trump-Putin collusion intelligence, but Bolton “NEVER BRIEFED” Trump on it… (Reportedly DJT (disastrously) hired Bolton on Sean Hannity’s advice.) https://www.lifezette.com/2025/07/john-bolton-buried-memo-that-couldve-cleared-trump-sooner-paul-sperry-watch/
Ex-liberal and feminist icon, writer Naomi Wolf, believes that Trump’s flipflopping on the Epstein Files issue might be due to the presence of tech titans that recently supported Trump being in the files. She claims Epstein had a ‘dual purpose: running a blackmail honey pot scheme and managing a group of top academicians and scientists for research projects. Naomi believes innocent people are in the files.
“The Network” in the Worlds of the Elites – Naomi Wolf Baffled by President Trump’s Response to the Epstein “Client List”? I Think I Get It. My guess is, that these are mostly guys from the Silicon Valley community, who have been the ones to put the fuel of their billions and their technical and media support into President Trump’s campaign and administration’s engines — whether they are innocent or guilty, are in the Epstein files. (Remember why Mrs Gates broke up with Mr Gates?) And I think this nation’s most important scientists, innocent or guilty, are in the files. And my guess is that the funders have confronted President Trump… I also believe that there are make-or-break tech bro Trump supporters on the list… One mission, of course, was that of running a grotesque sexual honeypot, exploiting minors, for purposes of blackmail. But another, Weinstein argues, is the management and direction of Western science itself… Epstein funded a number of important scientists, and that he had an office at Harvard. Here, in one improbable room, in 2010, were Amazon founder Jeff Bezos; Huffington Post founder Arianna Huffington; Marissa Mayer, then at Google; Larry Page, who cofounded Google; Craig Venter, who sequenced the human genome; biologist George Church, who later had to apologize for accepting funding from Jeffrey Epstein; weirdly, PCR test inventor Kari Mullis; weirdly, The Simpsons creator Matt Groening; and Nathan Myhrvold, formerly CTO at Microsoft and founder of Intellectual Ventures, the Tech Brotherhood’s Ground Zero of venture funding; Susan Wojcicki, later CEO of Youtube; Jason Calacanis, the tech investor who turned, per his book, $100,000 into $100,000,000; and Michael Tshao, who eventually led Apple’s foray into electronics such as the IPad… You can’t cross the network. Is that what President Trump is facing now? https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/the-network-in-the-worlds-of-the
Are Senior CIA Personnel Still Taking Direction from John Brennan? – Sam Faddis, Ex-CIA officer Sources talking to AND Magazine say clearly that inside CIA, significant numbers of powerful, senior officers are still taking direction from Brennan and doing all they can to ensure that no true lasting reform takes hold. This is not the view of a few isolated individuals. This is the near-universal opinion of those with access to what is happening inside the Agency right now… “Brennan controlled promotions in the agency and NSA through Hayden for about 12 years. First from the White House for 4 years, then as DCI. The agency was disloyal to their constitutional oath for the first term of Trump and simply resisted or ignored Trump during his first term. Then Brennan heavily influenced and steered the agency during Biden’s term. After 12 years of seeding the intel community, you can permanently alter the complexion and effectiveness of any federal department.”… “Brennan’s loyalists still run the top levels of the CIA.”… https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/are-senior-cia-personnel-still-taking?r=gpuy2&triedRedirect=true
@GioBruno1600: ABC News presented a 1-hour program on J Epstein and never mentioned that the host George Stephanopoulos had a relationship with Epsteinand enjoyed spending time in his house.
Ex-Clinton advisor & pollster @Mark_Penn: The New York Times ran a huge photo of a mother and an infirm child and represented it as a starving child in Gaza. Yet the picture itself is a contradiction as the mother is full faced and obviously not starving— but she didn’t have food for her child?… After the photographs were seen around the world it became clear that the child in fact suffers from cerebral palsy and other conditions unrelated to starvation. The suffering child ended up being less the intended symbol of Israeli evil than of how genuine misery can be put to use by practitioners of narrative war.
@LisaMarieBoothe: Democratic socialism is a grift. It is a way for talentless people to obtain fame and fortune with no skills required. AOC. Bernie. Zorhan. And in the end, they get rich, and you get poorer
Democrat politicians keep advocating or suggesting violence to counteract DJT and GOPers – because there has been NO negative consequences for their vile actions.
ICE wants to deport Wisconsin driver charged with being drunk, causing crash that killed 2 Minnesota teens (The Minnesota Star Tribune is loath to report an ‘illegal immigrant’ killed 2 Minnesota teens. So, it deceitfully uses ‘Wisconsin driver.’) https://www.startribune.com/ice-wants-to-deport-wi-driver-charged-with-being-drunk-causing-crash-that-killed-2-minnesota-teens/601444823 @RapidResponse47: The “Wisconsin driver” is an illegal immigrant from Honduras who drove drunk down the wrong way of the highway and killed two innocent teens — and this wasn’t even her first DUI.
@AGPamBondi: Today at my direction, @TheJusticeDept filed a misconduct complaint against U.S. District Court Chief Judge James Boasberg for making improper public comments about President Trump and his Administration. These comments have undermined the integrity of the judiciary, and we will not stand for that.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Chinese Intel-Linked Bankers Reportedly Fundraised For L.A. Mayor Karen Bass
Monday, Jul 28, 2025 – 08:30 PM
A Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF) investigation has revealed that disgraced Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass appointed two Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-linked bankers, Dominic Ng (CEO, East West Bank) and Simon Pang (co-founder, Royal Business Bank), to her mayoral transition advisory team in 2022. The investigation found that the two bankers and their institutions funneled over $1 million to Bass’ campaign and the mayor’s nonprofit, which she advises.
The report, titled “Karen Bass Raked In Cash From Chinese Intel-Tied Bankers Before Hiring Them,” noted that it’s unclear what roles Ng and Pang played on Bass’ mayoral transition advisory team, but what’s undeniable is that both have held positions within an influence and intelligence service of the CCP called the United Front Work Department (UFWD).
DCNF spoke with an East West Bank spokesperson who acknowledged that Ng had participated in two Chinese government organizations.
Recall that in 2023, House Republicans requested that the FBI investigate Ng for potential Espionage Act violations. At the time, the GOP sent a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray stating, “The Biden administration has allowed the CCP to infiltrate the third-party sector and, consequently, political leaders who have existing relationships with these groups and are privy to U.S. intelligence.”
Sam Cooper, a Canadian investigative reporter with The Bureau, told DCNF, “I absolutely believe that anyone holding a United Front position and then landing a spot on a mayor’s transition team is a huge red flag.”
“In fact, they’re often placed on these teams as a reward for channeling significant donations,” Cooper explained.
He noted, “When donors connected to United Front groups have significant wealth and show up constantly around politicians, they’re there for a reason.”
DCNF’s June report revealed that Bass appointed the son of a Democratic fundraiser and a known CCP intelligence official to serve as the city’s liaison for Asian-American affairs and director of commission appointments.
EXCLUSIVE: How Chinese Intel Infiltrated LA Mayor Karen Bass’ Camp | Philip Lenczycki, Daily Caller News Foundation
An official in Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’ administration is the son of a Chinatown powerbroker and Democratic donor who has praised the Chinese Communist Party… pic.twitter.com/Gd0IS8iCbI
“Los Angeles is now a wide-open city for China’s communists,” warned Gatestone Institute senior fellow Gordon Chang, adding, “Angelenos can thank the CCP sympathizer-in-chief, Karen Bass. Karen Bass resists federal agents and welcomes China’s communists. It’s very clear where her sympathies lie.”
The question is whether the CCP holds political leverage over Mayor Bass. It certainly appears that way, given her questionable policies: shielding criminal illegal aliens from federal law enforcement, supporting open borders, turning a blind eye to Marxist-linked NGO riots, standing idle as parts of Los Angeles burn, and opposing President Trump at every turn.
"Karen Bass is a Marxist. She made tons of trips to Cuba and cried publicly when Castro died, she's made no progress in LA, and her Dep Mayor has no experience with fire and public safety, and recently called in a fake bomb threat." – @JakeJakeNY@kevin_smith45pic.twitter.com/f9Rkcf4Plh
The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Monday filed a misconduct complaint against District Court Chief Judge James Boasberg, the judge presiding over a case against the Trump administration’s deportation of Venezuelan illegal immigrants to El Salvador in March.
Attorney General Pam Bondi stated on X. that she had directed the DOJ to file the complaint against Boasberg, alleging “improper public comments” made against President Donald Trump and his administration.
The complaint, filed by DOJ Chief of Staff Chad Mizelle on July 28, refers to comments made by Boasberg during a session of the Judicial Conference of the United States on March 11.
Boasberg has yet to respond publicly to the complaint. The Epoch Times has reached out to Boasberg’s chambers for comment and did not receive a response by publication time.
The DOJ alleged that Boasberg had “attempted to improperly influence” Chief Justice John Roberts and about two dozen other federal judges at the session by expressing his view that the Trump administration would “disregard rulings of federal courts” and trigger a “constitutional crisis.”
The DOJ accused Boasberg of breaching his judicial duties and claimed he attempted to sway judges at the session—whom it said were presiding over other cases involving Trump and his administration—by expressing his “preconceived belief” that the administration would violate court orders.
The complaint also references Boasberg’s March 15 ruling in a case involving Venezuelan illegal immigrants suspected of being members of the Tren de Aragua criminal gang—a U.S.-designated terrorist organization—who were deported to El Salvador under Trump’s proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act.
In that ruling, Boasberg halted the deportations and ordered the return of flights already en route to El Salvador. The order was later vacated by the Supreme Court.
“Throughout the proceedings, Judge Boasberg rushed the government through complex litigation, sometimes giving the Trump administration less than 48 hours to respond and threatening criminal-contempt proceedings and the appointment of an outside prosecutor against senior Trump administration officials for failing to comply with an order that had already been vacated,” it stated.
The DOJ stated that Boasberg’s actions warranted a formal investigation, saying they violated the judicial code of conduct and eroded public confidence in judicial neutrality.
The department also requested that Boasberg be taken off the deportation case and asked that the case be reassigned to another judge.
Hundreds of Venezuelan illegal immigrants were deported to El Salvador in March after Trump signed a proclamation on March 15 invoking the Alien Enemies Act, which noncitizens “with actual hostility against the United States” to be deported without legal process during wartime or invasion, despite an order from Boasberg that blocked the removal.
The White House has said that the deportation flights did not conflict with the judge’s order because the ruling was issued after the flights had already left U.S. territory.
Boasberg stated in June that the administration had “plainly deprived” the illegal immigrants of their right to seek habeas relief—or an opportunity to challenge their detention—before being deported from the United States.
Trump has previously called for the impeachment of Boasberg after the judge blocked his proclamation. But Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts rejected that call.
END
UTTER NONSENSE!!
Coalition Of Dem AGs Sue Trump Admin Over Effort To Weed Non-Citizens Off Of SNAP Program
New York, California, and a host of other Democrat-run states are suing the Trump administration over its efforts to weed noncitizens off of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) program.
A coalition of 20 attorneys general, led by New York AG Letitia James and California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced the lawsuit Monday, arguing that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s demand that states turn over personal information about SNAP recipients dating back five years, violates privacy laws.
SNAP is a federally-funded, state-administered program that provides billions of dollars in food benefits to tens of millions of low-income individuals and families in the United States.
The new USDA demands, released last week, require states to provide a list of individuals who have applied or are currently receiving SNAP benefits, in addition to other information such as a list of their immigration statuses in the U.S., and information including their marital statuses, their residential and mailing addresses, and education and employment history, among other things.
The USDA has threatened to withhold administrative funding from states that don’t comply.
On April 24, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins issued a guidance to all State agencies directing them “to enhance identity and immigration verification practices when determining eligibility for the program.
Under Rollins’ direction, John Walk, acting deputy under secretary for Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services, sent letters to state SNAP agencies, explaining that most noncitizens do not qualify for the benefits.
“By law, only United States citizens and certain lawfully present aliens may receive SNAP benefits. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-193) established that ‘aliens within the Nation’s borders not depend on public resources to meet their needs.’ SNAP is not and has never been available to illegal aliens,” Walk wrote.
Specifically, the USDA asked states “to cross-check Social Security numbers with a death master file and to use the free Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system provided by the Department of Homeland Security” to verify immigration status.
An estimated 1.5 million noncitizens collected a total of $4.2 billion in Food Stamp benefit payments in fiscal year 2022, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data.
Under a $53 million pilot program in New York City during the Biden administration, “asylum seekers” were reportedly given $1,400 in Snap Benefits a month.
In FY 2023, a “staggering” $10.5 billion in improper SNAP payments were made,” the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported in February 2025. That amounts to about 12 percent of total SNAP payments that year.
“The inadequate verification of an applicant’s identity and citizenship by states is specifically highlighted as contributing to the improper payments of SNAP funds,” the USDA said in its April 24 press release.
The Democrat AGs argue in their lawsuit that the USDA’s latest directive violates federal privacy laws and exceeds the agency’s authority.
“President Trump continues to weaponize private and sensitive personal information — not to root out fraud, but to create a culture of fear where people are unwilling to apply for essential services,” Bonta said in a statement. “We’re talking about kids not getting school lunch, fire victims not accessing emergency services, and other devastating, deadly consequences. That is Trump’s vision for America.”
Joining California in the lawsuit are the attorneys general of Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin, the District of Columbia, and Kentucky.
Bonta, James, and Michigan AG Dana Nessel held a virtual press briefing to announce the latest Democrat lawsuit against the Trump Administration.
“This administration is attempting to use this program as a tool in their cruel and chaotic targeting of immigrants,” James charged.
harveyorganblog.com 
