SORRY FOR BEING LATE: HAD TO ME MY EYE DR.
we are now beginning to deal with OTC/London LBMA options expiry Friday July 31
as always the crooks raid gold/silver so be careful!!. The reason is suppress the price
due to huge derivative losses endured the banks. Do not fear the raids.
platinum ..OFF THE CHART//29.5%
gold: 6.0%
silver lease rate today//6.5%
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024: 3549 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 354,900 OZ or 15.304 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,304 contracts for 1,530,400 OR 47.601 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 918 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4.590 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 918 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 4/590 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST:
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES//STILL QUITE SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 4555 CONTRACTS OI TO 165,774 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 760 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 760 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 4555 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 760 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3795 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.54 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 18.975 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.54 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.51 PTS OR 1.18%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 377.91 PTS OR 1.50%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 415.12 PTS OR 1.02% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.18%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1927 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2004/ Oil UP TO 69.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 72.44 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1927 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.2004 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3011 CONTRACTS TO 442,248 OI WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $27.50 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2450 ). WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //TUESDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 561 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OF THAT LOSS DUE TO BOTH SPREADERS, THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTHLY SPREADERS.
LAST WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. OR IT COULD BE THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY!!.THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY IS NOW 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 0 SO FAR
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS GENERALLY THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE OR FRBNY FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 6TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH JULY WITH A TWO MONTH HIATUS)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 561 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED ERLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF JUNE AND JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A 778 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST FRIDAY’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED YESTERDAY WITH HUGE FURY AS WE APPROACH THE FINAL LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY. (IT ENDS TODAY AT AROUND 11 AM)
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS(ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. NOW IN JULY WE HAVE HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 233 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NONE COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2450 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 2450 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2450 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY AND THEY WERE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION
- ZERO NET SPEC LIQUIDATION DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE AS TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO OUR TWO SPREADERS.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 778 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE THIS PAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S HUGE LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD AND SILVER AND A CORRESPONDING LIQUIDATION OF SOME COMEX OI. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH THE RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK! THE RAIDS THROUGHOUT OPTION EXPIRY WEEK WERE USED TO LOWER THE HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES ENDURED BY THE BANKERS.
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A STRONG $27.50/ /) AND BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ////WEDNESDAY WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE!
THURSDAYS MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: 0 so far!
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ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1.740 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $27.50
WE HAD A SMALL 297 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 561 CONTRACTS OR 56100 0Z (1.740 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 252,423 contracts// strong
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
AUGUSST CONTRACT MONTH
JULY 31/2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entry . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks dealer 124,038.558 oz (3898 kilobars total deposit: 124,03.558 oz 3.898 tonnes |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Into Loomis 4822.65 oz 150 kilobars ii) Into Malca: 32,115.000 oz (1000 kilobars) total deposit: 36,973.650oz or 1.150 tonnes total gold deposit dealer and customer; 5.03 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 15,304 notice(s) 0000 OZ 0.0 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 4162 contracts 416,200 OZ 12.945 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 15,304 notices 1,530,400 oz 47.601 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits:
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks dealer 124,038.558 oz (3898 kilobars
total deposit: 124,03.558 oz
3.898 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis 4822.65 oz 150 kilobars
ii) Into Malca: 32,115.000 oz (1000 kilobars)
total deposit: 36,973.650oz or 1.150 tonnes
total gold deposit dealer and customer; 5.03 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0
adjustments: 5
first 4 all dealer to customer
a)Asahi: 6088.672 oz
b) Brinks 65,009.322 oz
c) JPMORGAN: 10,995.642 OZ
LAST TWO CUSTOMER TO DEALER
d) Loomis 29,818.549 oz
e) Malca 134,937.747 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 19,466 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 7031 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND IN THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST IS AS FOLLOWS:
19,466 CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT
EQUALS
1,946,600 OZ OR 60.547 TONNES.
SEPT GAINED 59 CONTRACTS TO 4627
OCTOBER LOST 256 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 66,721
We had 15,304 contracts filed for today representing 1,530,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 15,304 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3549 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (47,601 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 19,466CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (15,304 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,946,600 OZ OR 60.547 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (15,304 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (19,466 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (15,304 x 100 oz) which equals 1,946,600OZ OR 60.547 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 60.547 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,757,203.840 oz 54.765 tonnes declining rapidly
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,675,473.567 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,127,636.01 or 657.16 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,547,837.556 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,370,433 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 602.50tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE AUGUST 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
JULY 31
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Delaware: 7866.000 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | deposit dealer; one entry i) Into Ashai dealer 589,490.500 oz total deposit 589,490.500 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into Brinks 225.84.680 oz ii) Into CNT 43,886.120 total deposit: 299,710.800 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 918 CONTRACT(S) (4.590 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 22 contracts (0.110 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 918 Contracts (4.590 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposit into dealer accounts
1 ENTRY
i) Into Ashai dealer 589,490.500 oz
total deposit 589,490.500 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into Brinks 225.84.680 oz
ii) Into CNT 43,886.120
total deposit: 299,710.800 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entry
1 ENTRY
i) Delaware: 7866.000 oz
total withdrawal 7866.000 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1
dealer to customer Brinks
556,882.800 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 191.576 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 505.219Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 940 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 91 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST IS AS FOLLOWS:
940 CONTRACTS STANDING X 5000 OZ PER CONTRACT
EQUALS
4.700 MILLION OZ WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR AUGUST.
SEPTEMBER LOST 5498 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 115,827 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 918 or 4.590 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 83,381 goood//
AND NOW JULY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 918 X5,000 oz = 4.590 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (940) AND the number of notices served upon today (918 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (918) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(940) minus number of notices served upon today (918)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 4.700 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 4.70 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 191.576 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/505,219 million. 41.94%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 956.23 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 487.852 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ/RON STOEFERLE
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES
YPF plaintiffs embark on ‘treasure hunt’ for Argentine central bank’s gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-07-30 20:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Bob Van Voris
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
A lawyer representing former YPF SA shareholders told a judge in New York that they’re on a “treasure hunt” for gold bars Argentina’s central bank secretly sent abroad last year.
The shareholders, backed by litigation funding firm Burford Capital, are trying to collect on a $16 billion court judgment resulting from the nation’s 2012 nationalization of YPF. U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska ruled Tuesday that Argentina needed to turn over relevant text messages and emails from Economy Minister Luis Caputo and others.
Seth Levine, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, said at the hearing before Preska that locating the gold was one reason they needed the messages. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Play silver’s breakout by donating to GATA
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-07-30 20:30 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:28p ET Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Like gold, silver now seems to be breaking out of its longstanding derivatives clutches engineered by the U.S. government and its investment bank agents. But this largely surreptitious manipulation of the monetary metals markets hasn’t been overthrown yet.
Indeed, it probably won’t be overthrown until the public is invited to attend every proceeding of the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. So GATA’s work is unfinished, and free and transparent markes for the monetary metals are not yet secured.
But with silver’s price rising, there’s an especially good way for advocates of the monetary metals to help keep GATA in the fight. That’s by making a donation to GATA of $250 or more, which will entitle the donor to a beautiful 1-ounce silver round commemorating GATA’ work.
Our friends at Money Metals Exchange in Eagle, Idaho, support our struggle so much that they have minted the silver round honoring GATA.
On the front of the round is an engraving copied from the GATA painting by Alain Despert, depicting GATA as a modern-day Don Quixote leading a march of gold and silver advocates on the U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington:
The back of the round shows the torch of liberty breaking the chains of price suppression and recognizing gold and silver as the crucial defenders of liberty:
You can purchase the GATA commemorative silver round directly from Money Metals Exchange for around $41 here:
But if you’d like to help GATA as well, please donate $250 or more and we’ll arrange to have your silver round shipped to you from Money Metals Exchange, which is now the operator of the largest precious metals depository in the United States west of New York, a depository larger than Fort Knox. (By the way — whatever happened to the Trump administration’s planned inspection of Fort Knox to see if the gold it is said to contain is secure? Was the president dissuaded by a confidential warning that the gold is encumbered by some of those derivatives?)
Your gift in any amount will fuel GATA’s important work.
Since GATA is a federally recognized tax-exempt educational and civil rights organization, donations are federally tax-deductible. If you receive a silver round for your donation, the metal value of the round must be subtracted from the federal tax-deductibility of your donation. For example, with the silver round priced at $42, a $250 donation made to GATA would be federally tax-deductible for $208.
To donate, please mail a check payable to GATA to:
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Conn. 06043-7541 USA
Or visit GATA’s internet site here:
Please make sure to let us know your shipping address as well as your e-mail address so we can speed your silver round to you and thank you promptly without incurring the time and expense of surface mail.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Adrian Ash: China ‘buys the dip’ in gold after record ETF outflows
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-07-30 20:19 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Adrian Ash
Bullion Vault, London
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Gold fell again today against a surging U.S. follar, setting its lowest London price in three weeks as headlines proclaiming a sudden flight out of Chinese bullion-backed exchange-traded trust funds preceded the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July interest-rate decision.
After spring 2025 saw record trading into China gold ETFs, “Some investors are taking profits from gold and rotating into equities to chase stronger momentum,” Bloomberg quotes analyst Steve Zhou at Huaan Fund Management Co., issuer of the largest gold ETF available to Chinese investors.
“Retail investors have been the main drivers of the outflows,” Zhou says, highlighting the attraction of swapping into this month’s 5.5% jump in the CSI300 index of Chinese corporate equities.
Mid-month, Asian-listed gold ETFs as a group grew to need the most bullion backing ever, peaking above 324 tonnes according to data compiled and published by the mining industry’s World Gold Council. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
Mike Maharrey: 2021 meme reveals the relentless devaluation of our money
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-07-30 09:22 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, July 29, 2025
I ran across a 2021 meme the other day that vividly illustrates just how quickly the government is destroying your money.
The meme points out that in 1964 the minimum wage was $1.25, or five quarters. That sounds really low, but keep in mind that before 1965, quarters were 90% silver. In 2021 the melt value of those five quarters was $23.34.
In other words the five quarters a minimum-wage worker earned in an hour in 1964 had $23.34 in purchasing power in 2021. There’s your “living wage.”
That’s pretty staggering in and of itself, but now fast-forward a few years. As of today the melt value of those five quarters is $34.45.
In other words, the value (purchasing power) of those five quarters has increased by another 47.6% in just 3 1/2 years!
This reflects the relentless devaluation of U.S. money. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
Craig Hemke: A lesson in open interest
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-07-29 18:34 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, July 29, 2025
I’ve learned a few things while watching the Comrc precious metals every day for the past 15 years. One lesson involves the timing and scale of new contract issuance during price rallies, and all of us just got reminder of this last week.
Let’s start with a matrix of sorts. What you see below isn’t universally true, but if you watch and record the daily price and open interest (OI) changes for Comex gold and silver, you’ll soon see that it’s about 90% accurate.
Price up, OI up: Speculators are adding longs, while commercials are adding shorts.
Price up, OI down: A short squeeze is likely underway.
Price down, OI down: Speculators are being flushed out, and commercials are covering shorts.
Price down, OI up: Someone is aggressively shorting, driving prices lower. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 233
5. COMMODITY REPORT..RARE EARTHS
/Myanmar’s Kachin State Is At The Center Of The Sino-US Scramble For Rare Earths
this area is loaded with rare earths. the USA seeks influence in this area over the dominance of China
(Korybko)
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The US seeks influence over this region that supplies much of neighboring China’s rare earth industry…
Western media has published a spree of articles raising awareness of the important role that Myanmar’s Kachin State plays in the global rare earth minerals industry.
The latest phase of that country’s long-running civil war, which is more complex than most Western and non-Western accounts alike make it seem as explained here in February 2024, has seen regional separatists take control of sites that produce roughly half of the world’s heavy rare earths.
Here are five of those aforementioned reports about this:
* 28 March: “Insight: Myanmar rebels disrupt China rare earth trade, sparking regional scramble”
* 23 June: “How war-torn Myanmar plays a critical role in China’s rare earth dominance”
* 8 July: “Exclusive: Why China’s ultimatum to Myanmar rebels threatens global supply of heavy rare earths”
* 11 July: “What to Know About the Rush for Rare Earth Metals in War-Torn Myanmar”
* 18 July: “A Rebel Army Is Building a Rare-Earth Empire on China’s Border”
To summarize, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is trying to expand control over its eponymous state, which threatens the ruling military authorities with whom they’ve been at war for decades. China has reportedly demanded that they halt their offensive otherwise it’ll curtail imports of their rare earths. This could in turn destabilize global supply chains if the KIA doesn’t comply and China carries through on its ultimatum since China has a near-monopoly on processing these resources.
It’s within this context that the US just lifted sanctions on some of the ruling junta’s allies. By alleviating some of the pressure that it placed upon them since they reassumed power over the country in early 2021 following disputed parliamentary elections several months prior, which sparked the latest round of what’s by far the world’s longest-running civil war, the US seems to be signaling interest in a deal. All pressure could possibly be removed if Myanmar (con)federalizes and gives the US influence over Kachin.
Myanmar might be tempted to consider this seeing as how the armed forces have been on the backfoot for nearly the past two years. It’s also so concerned about becoming disproportionately dependent on China that it comprehensively expanded ties with Russia as a means of hedging against that scenario. An American-brokered political-resource deal might therefore keep the generals in power and lead to Myanmar diversifying its Chinese balancing act by having the US complement Russia’s role in this regard.
The Sino-US scramble for rare earths, which Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova assessed to be part of the AI-driven ‘tech race’, is a top US foreign policy priority. It’s accordingly more important for the US to obtain control over these resources or at least influence over China’s suppliers, such as what it’s seeking to do through the peace deal that it recently brokered between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda as explained here, than to “spread democracy” in Myanmar.
This grand strategic imperative accounts for the US’ unexpected lifting of sanctions on some of the ruling junta’s allies, which comes amidst Western media’s spree of articles raising wider awareness of the important role that Myanmar’s Kachin State plays in the global rare earth minerals industry. Those reports help precondition the Western public to understand why the US might soon sacrifice the prior administration’s “democracy” goals in Myanmar by cutting a political-resource deal with the generals.
end
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.51 PTS OR 1.18%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 377.91 PTS OR 1.50%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 415.12 PTS OR 1.02% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.18%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1927 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2004/ Oil UP TO 69.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 72.44 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1927 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.2004 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1927 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2004
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 377.91 PTS OR 1.50%
2. Nikkei closed UP 415.12 PTS OR 1.02%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.54/ EURO RISES TO 1.1438 UP 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.558//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.45…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6890/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.527 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.269%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.382
3j Gold at $3305.70 Silver at: 36.95 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 39 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.61
3m oil (WTI) into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.45// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.558% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8129 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9299 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.346 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.871 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.930 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.59
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5740 DOWN 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.489 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.043 DOWN 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Storm To Another Record High After Blowout Tech Earnings
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 08:24 AM
“Powell hawkish, QRA a damp squib. Just when it felt darkest, MSFT and META came to the rescue.” That’s how Goldman Delta-1 head Rich Privorotsky summarized overnight events in his overnight wrap and boy was he right: US equity futures are soaring deep into record territory following blowout earnings from META and MSFT, which are +11.8% and +8.4% pre-mkt, and traders are asking if AAPL and AMZN – which report after the close – can provide an encore performance? As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 0.9% higher, having risen more than 1% earlier, while Nasdaq futures are surging as much as 1.3% after results and spending plans from Meta and Microsoft confirmed the AI trade is here to stay. That’s helping traders overlook Trump’s last-minute tariff curveballs and a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell. Yields are 1-2bp lower as USD is flat. Commodities are mixed with Energy somehow weaker even though it appears that the world’s entire future is based on data center construction for the next several decades; Ags are stronger, gold is up/silver down, and base metals weaker with copper down more than 20% on adjustments to copper tariff policy. Overnight, US/S.Korea reached a deal for 15% plus $350bn in investments and $100bn in energy purchases. Brazil stays at 50% but delayed start with some exemptions (commodities, aircraft, orange juice). US says India to have 25% tariff plus penalty but negotiations to continue. This leaves Canada (call later today), Mexico, China, and Australia as major partners without an updated deal. Today’s macro data focus is on monthly PCE, Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Spending.
In premarket trading, most Mag7 stocks are flying: Meta surges 11% after Facebook’s parent company gave a strong revenue forecast and reported second-quarter results that beat analysts’ expectations. While it also raised its full-year forecast for capital expenditures, analysts said the company’s spending was justified by its growth. Microsoft shares rally 8% after the software giant reported very strong results, with notable strength in its cloud business and Azure product (Amazon +3%, Nvidia +2%, Apple -0.1%, , Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.4%).
- Software, cloud-computing and semiconductor companies are rising as Meta and Microsoft raise capital expenditure plans.
- Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) rises 21% after the Medicare Advantage company said 2Q health plan memberships increased 28% from a year ago, topping estimates. The company also raised some year forecasts.
- Apellis Pharma (APLS) climbs 11% after reporting revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Applied Digital (APLD) rallies 21% as the digital infrastructure company reports better-than-expected quarterly revenue, and says cloud infrastructure provider CoreWeave to lease an additional 150MW of capacity at the North Dakota data center campus. CoreWeave (CRWV) shares jump 10%.
- Arm Holdings Plc (ARM) falls 6% after the company gave a lower-than-expected profit forecast for the current period after ramping up spending on new products.
- Carvana (CVNA) soars 15% after the online car retailer reported revenue during the second quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
- Confluent (CFLT) falls 29% as analysts, including at Stifel, downgrade the application software company’s stock, citing a tough outlook for revenue growth amid cloud usage optimization and lackluster customer additions.
- CVS Health (CVS) rises 7% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share guidance for the full year, following second-quarter results that also topped expectations.
- Datadog Inc. (DDOG) is down 3% as a filing showed Chief Executive Officer Olivier Pomel sold shares of the software company.
- EBay (EBAY) jumps 14% after the online auction company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook seen as positive.
- PTC Inc. (PTC) rises 7% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
- Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) jumps 8% after the cruise operator reported adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The firm also boosted its outlook for occupancy rates for the full year, topping Wall Street’s expectations.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) falls 6% after the chipmaker reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts say the report disappointed with the company’s handset market.
- Shake Shack (SHAK) falls 8% after the burger chain providing a 3Q revenue outlook that disappointed.
- TransMedics (TMDX) rises 17% after the biotechnology company reported diluted EPS for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Tronox Holdings (TROX) drops 11% after the chemical company cut its year forecast for revenue and adj. Ebitda as management sees lower pigment and zircon volumes and price than previously anticipated. Management also cut the dividend
- Western Digital (WDC) jumps 8% after the computer-storage company beat fourth quarter estimates and provided first quarter forecasts above estimates. Analysts note potential gross margin upside and favorable supply/demand drivers.
Brace for another busy session, with Apple and Amazon reporting and core PCE data for June due. S&P 500 futures surge after blowout earnings from MSFT and META put the index on track for another record. Analysts said that Meta capex may reach $100b next year – an eye-popping 45% increase on this year’s projected figure. Microsoft is also spending big on AI. Along with better-than-expected growth in its cloud business, that’s set to help it become the second company ever to reach a $4 trillion market cap. If even a portion of Microsoft’s 8% premarket gain holds through the start of cash trading, the tech giant is set to match the feat of Nvidia, which hit the $4 trillion milestone earlier this month. Apple and Amazon.com are due to report later Thursday.
Headline-grabbing earnings are helping to allay fears about a tariff-driven slowdown in the world’s biggest economy and justifying high stock valuations. Investors are also navigating trade tensions and central bank decisions.
“It’s really the good results in the US which are providing a tailwind for markets,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “We needed the Mag 7 to deliver this quarter for the rally to continue throughout the summer.”
The deluge of data continues Thursday, with reports on jobless claims and monthly core inflation due before the open of trading. The PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is likely to show a quicker rate of price growth than the CPI index has revealed, bolstering the Fed’s go-slow approach, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Treasuries rose across the curve, helping to reverse some of their pullback Wednesday after Powell said no decision had been made about easing policy in September. The dollar traded at its highest levels since May. “Our base case remains that the Fed will begin cutting rates in the second half of this year as we expect the economy to continue to slow,” Richard Clarida, global economic advisor at PIMCO wrote in a note after the meeting. “However, uncertainty remains high and data will continue to drive the Fed.”
European stocks are down, having given up earlier gains. Losses in mining and travel shares have weighed on the Stoxx 600. Rolls-Royce shares soar to a record after the aircraft-engine maker raised its outlook for the year, while AB InBev plunges on its latest results. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Rolls-Royce rises as much as 12% after the aero engine maker increased guidance for the year by more than analysts expected. Strong margin performances in the civil aerospace and power systems divisions drew particular attention
- BBVA jumps 9.1% after the Spanish lender beat estimates, improved its guidance and vowed to step up investor payouts. Shares have underperformed so far this year as the bank pursues a takeover bid of Banco Sabadell
- Safran raised its full-year guidance for free cash flow, revenue growth and operating income well above analysts expectations, sending its shares up 4.3% to a record high
- Argenx surges as much as 16%, the most in two years, after the biotech company reported Vyvgart sales for the second quarter that JPMorgan analysts called a “significant beat.” Barclays said a high bar for success has been met
- Societe Generale shares jumped as much as 8.5% to the highest level since Oct. 2008 after the French lender reported an upbeat 2Q set of earnings. The bank surpassed estimates and increased its profitability target for 2025
- Shell rises as much as 3.5% after the oil company reported adjusted profit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, and announced a $3.5 billion share buyback. Analysts at RBC note strong marketing result
- Rentokil jumps as much as 12%, the most in over a year, after the pest controller confirmed its full-year guidance and posted results in line with expectations. Analysts note encouraging trends in the firm’s growth initiatives
- AB InBev falls as much as 11%, the steepest decline since 2020, after second-quarter volumes missed estimates. All regions missed expectations barring North America, with Latin America a particular area of weakness, analysts says
- Mining shares are the worst-performing sub-index in the Stoxx 600 on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on some copper imports, but excluded the most widely imported form of the metal
- Sanofi shares drop as much as 3.7%, the most in two months, after the French drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, overshadowing a sales beat
- Accor shares fall as much as 13% in brisk volumes, their biggest one-day plunge since the Covid-19 drop of March 2020, after the hotel operator unveiled disappointing guidance
- Eramet shares drop as much as 9.8%, the most in nine months. The mining and metallurgy firm reported weaker-than-expected results in the first half, driven by production and logistical issues, mainly in lithium
- Straumann falls as much as 6.6%, the most since April 7, after US peer Align Technology — which makes clear dental braces — reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results and provided an outlook which also missed estimates
Earlier in the session, Asian equities were set for their longest losing streak since December, as economic gloom and disappointment over outcomes from a key political meeting swamped shares in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.4%, poised for a fifth-straight daily decline. Samsung Electronics was among the biggest drags after disappointing earnings. Stocks in Tokyo bucked the regional drop, maintaining gains after the Bank of Japan kept policy rate unchanged. Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China declined more than 1% amid weak economic data and little positive surprise from a key government meeting. Some negative sentiment also carried over to the region from US trading overnight after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there’s been no decision on easing policy in September. Indian shares erased earlier losses as President Donald Trump said both sides were still in discussions on trade after he threatened at least 25% tariff on imports from the South Asian nation. Meanwhile, stocks in Seoul swung from a gain to a loss as investors shrugged off a relatively light 15% US tariff.
In FX, the Japanese yen is now about 0.2% weaker against the dollar, having erased an earlier gain after BOJ Governor Ueda reduced expectations of a near-term rate increase. The yen weakened to 150 against the dollar for the first time since April 2 as investors took comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to be less hawkish than expected. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose, and traded at its highest levels since May. The euro climbs 0.3% after showing little reaction to regional euro-area inflation data that was largely in line with estimates.
Treasuries rose across the curve, helping to reverse some of their pullback Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no decision had been made about easing policy in September. US yields are mostly richer by 1bp-3bp with 2-year little changed, flattening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp, 5s30s by less than 1bp; 10-year lower by 3bp near 4.34%, outperforming Germany’s by about 1.5bp while UK 10-year keeps pace. European government bonds are mixed. Both the UK and German yields curves flatten with the short-end underperforming.
In commodities, US crude futures fall 0.8% to near $69.50 a barrel. Spot gold rises $32 to around $3,307/oz. Copper prices slipped 0.7% on the London Metal Exchange Thursday — following a collapse in New York — after US President Donald Trump shocked the metals world by exempting the most widely traded forms of copper from his hotly anticipated import tariffs.
Bitcoin rises 1.2% and above $118,000.
To the day ahead now, for the data releases in the US, the focus will be on June personal income/spending (includes PCE price indexes), 2Q employment cost index and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and July Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers). The earnings calendar will remain busy with Apple and Amazon being the main highlight, while in Europe we have Rolls-Royce and BMW.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +1.4%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX +0.1%
- CAC 40 -0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.36%
- VIX -0.6 points at 14.9
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1218.53
- euro +0.4% at $1.1445
- WTI crude -0.2% at $69.84/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump announced a trade agreement at 6:15pmET Wed night with South Korea – South Korea will be charged a tariff of 15% (consistent w/Japan and the EU) and has pledged to provide $350B for investment in the US w/another $100B intended for energy purchases. Politico
- China reportedly summons NVIDIA (NVDA) on H20 chip backdoor security risk: Bloomberg.
- US Senator Warren (D) sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick asking that new rules developed by the Ministry maintain incentives for companies to keep computing infrastructure in the US: Punchbowl
- Trump once again threatened to suspend trade talks with Canada, this time over Carney’s promise to recognize Palestinian statehood. Politico
- BOJ left rates unchanged, as expected, but raised its inflation forecasts, spurring speculation that it could resume policy tightening later this year, although Ueda’s language in the presser cooled speculation of an imminent hike. FT
- Trump is set to hold a phone call w/Mexico’s president Thurs morning as the two countries search for a trade agreement ahead of the 8/1 deadline. BBG
- Top officials from big US trading partners have rushed to Washington in a bid to strike last-ditch trade dela with Trump less than 24 hrs before being hit again with the president’s highest levels of tariffs. Canada and Mexico sent delegations and were locked in intense talks with the Trump admin on Wednesday. FT
- AAPL iPhone exports to the US from India will remain untouched by President Donald Trump’s latest 25% tariffs on the South Asian nation, for now. BBG
- China’s NBS PMIs cool in Jul, with manufacturing coming in at 49.3 (down from 49.7 in June and below the Street’s 49.7 forecast) and non-manufacturing at 50.1 (down from 50.5 in June and below the Street’s 50.2 forecast) WSJ
- French inflation was stable in July at a level well below the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the case for more interest-rate cuts. BBG
- MSFT +8.5% in the pre mkt, Azure growth +39% cc vs. expectations for +35%, Total Revs $76.4% (+17% y/y) vs cons $73.8bn and EPS $3.65 or ~8% beat vs cons ~$3.38. META +11.8% pre mkt and new ATHs. Handily beat every line with less capex/opex pressure than expected … Ad revs ACCEL to +22% y/y cc, 2Q Revs $47.52bn (+22% y/y cc) vs guide $42.5-45.5bn vs cons $44.8bn (+15% y/y) vs +19% y/y cc last qtr: Goldman Sachs
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump announced that the US has agreed to a “Full and Complete Trade Deal” with South Korea in which South Korea will give the United States USD 350bln for investments owned and controlled by the US, and selected by Trump, while South Korea will also purchase USD 100bln of LNG, or other energy products and South Korea has also agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes with this sum to be announced within the next two weeks when the President Lee comes to the White House for a bilateral meeting. Trump added “It is also agreed that South Korea will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc. We have agreed to a Tariff for South Korea of 15%. America will not be charged a Tariff.”
- South Korean Presidential Office confirmed US lowered tariffs on South Korean autos to 15% from 25%, while it added that chips and drug tariffs will not be worse than those applied to other countries and stated that USD 200bln of funds are allocated for chips, nuclear power, batteries, and bio sectors. Furthermore, it stated that the rice and beef market will not be opened and that South Korea demanded 12.5% auto tariffs but President Trump insisted on 15%.
- US President Trump posted “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”
- US President Trump will discuss Mexico’s plan to cut trade deficit with Mexican President Sheinbaum on Thursday ahead of the August 1st deadline.
- US President Trump plans to sign new executive orders on Thursday, imposing higher tariff rates on several countries that have been unable to reach negotiated trade agreements by Friday deadline, while this could include a number of America’s biggest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Taiwan, according to POLITICO.
- Pakistan’s government said the trade agreement with the US will result in a reduction in reciprocal tariffs, especially on Pakistani exports to the US, and is expected to spur increased US investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and development projects. Furthermore, it stated that the US–Pakistan deal marks the beginning of economic collaboration in energy, mines and minerals, IT, cryptocurrency, and other sectors.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced trade deals were made with Cambodia and Thailand. However, the Thai Finance Minister later said they are still working a bit more on the trade proposal to the US and he expects to receive info on US tariffs within 24 hours.
- EU is to give 0% tariff for export quota of 1mln metrics tons of Indonesian crude palm oil a year under free trade agreement, according to an Indonesia official.
Earnings
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 7.14 (exp. 5.85), Revenue 47.52bln (exp. 44.87bln); +12% shares pre-market.
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 3.65 (exp. 3.35), Revenue 76.44bln (exp. 73.76bln); +8% shares pre-market.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 1.05bln (exp. 1.05bln); -7% shares pre-market.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.77 (exp. 2.70), Revenue 10.37bln (exp. 10.30bln); -6% shares pre-market.
- eBay Inc (EBAY) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.37 (exp. 1.30), Revenue 2.7bln (exp. 2.64bln); +13% shares pre-market.
- Western Digital Corp (WDC) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.66 (exp. 1.46), Revenue 2.605bln (exp. 2.46bln); +9% shares pre-market.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed in the aftermath of a hawkish Powell and strong mega-cap earnings stateside, while participants also digested the US-South Korea trade deal, disappointing Chinese PMIs and the BoJ policy announcement at month-end. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid losses in miners following weaker H1 earnings from Rio Tinto and with a record drop seen in copper prices after the Trump administration excluded refined copper from planned 50% tariffs. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 41,000 level after recent currency weakness and better-than-expected Industrial Production & Retail Sales from Japan, while the BoJ policy provided no major fireworks as the central bank kept its short-term rates unchanged but highlighted trade-related uncertainty and raised its Core CPI projections. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following disappointing official PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures missed expectations with the former remaining in contraction territory.
BOJ Announcement
- BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, while it noted that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth but will gradually accelerate thereafter and underlying consumer inflation likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. BoJ stated that uncertainty over trade policy and its developments, and their impact on the economic and price outlook, remains high and noted that real interest rates are at extremely low levels, while it must have no preconception in judging whether the economy and prices are moving in line with the forecast. BoJ reiterated that it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. Furthermore, it noted there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments and their impact on the economy and stated that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade policies could lead firms to focus more on cost-cutting and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, board members’ median forecasts for Core CPI were raised through to 2027, while the median forecast for Real GDP was upgraded for FY25 but maintained for the following two years after.
- Rising wages at Japanese firms are becoming the norm in recent years.
- No large change to central outlook that growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls. Moves to pass on rising costs to prices continue. Underlying inflation could slow down in line with slowdown in economic growth. Underlying inflation is gradually rising; not in phase of stalling due to tariffs. Wage impact on prices not picking up too fast. Even if economy and prices undershoot BoJ projections, need to keep in mind that policy rates are low at 0.5%.
- Current FX rate not diverging far from BoJ assumptions.
- Will continue to raise policy rate if economy and prices move in line with forecasts, in accordance with improvement in economy and prices. Policy decision would not depend solely on new CPI forecasts.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) opened higher across the board with a slew of mostly positive earnings from within Europe, and with significant post-earning strength in Meta and Microsoft also boosting sentiment. Though in recent trade, the complex has waned off best levels, with a few indices now slipping into the red; no fresh driver behind this pullback. European sectors are mixed, and with a fairly wide breadth of the market. Banks take the top spot, with several European banking reporting today; including from the likes of BBVA (+8%, Bottom line beat), SocGen (+7%, lifts annual targets), Credit Ag (U/C, broadly in-line), Mediobanca (-0.2%, in-line), ING (-0.3%, missed on NII, expects impact following sale of Russian business). Industrials have also been buoyed following key results from within the sector; Airbus (-0.6%, Q2 metrics beat but provided cautious commentary on meeting 2025 delivery target), Safran (+4.6%, Revenue beat and upped its rev. growth outlook for FY), Rolls Royce (+9%, soars after raising profit guidance). Basic Resources is found right at the foot of the pile, pressured by the significant losses seen in copper prices seen in the prior session.
Top European News
- German Finance Minister urged cabinet ministers to cut spending to close the budget gap of over EUR 30bln in 2027, via an interview with Ard-Tagesthemen.
FX
- The recent rally in USD has paused for breath after DXY stalled ahead of the 100 mark post-FOMC. To recap, the Fed held rates at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with Governors Waller and Bowman dissenting in favour of a 25bps cut. In Powell’s presser, he said no decision has been made about the September meeting, and they will not let tariffs become inflationary, because they will make sure it does not become serious by deploying their tools. For today’s agenda, monthly PCE metrics for June will take centre stage with core M/M PCE expected to pick up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Note, desks expect that inflation is poised for further firming in the coming months. Elsewhere, labour market data in the form of weekly claims and Challenger layoffs are due ahead of tomorrow’s crucial NFP print. If the upside in DXY resumes and takes out the 100 mark, the next target will come via the 29th May peak at 100.54.
- EUR/USD is attempting to atone for recent losses, which have been driven by a combination of the fallout from the EU-US trade deal and yesterday’s FOMC policy announcement. For the Eurozone, regional CPI metrics have continued to drip feed into the market ahead of the bloc-wide release tomorrow. Metrics from France printed 10bps firmer-than-expected Y/Y on a headline basis but 10bps weaker for the normalised print. Regional CPIs from Germany have seen an uptick on a M/M basis from the prior and mixed Y/Y ahead of the mainland metrics at 13:00BST. EUR/USD has found support just above the 1.14 mark. If the level gives way, the June 10th low sits at 1.1373.
- JPY is softer vs. the USD in the wake of the latest BoJ policy announcement. The BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote. The policy statement was one of caution given the uncertainties provided by the trade war and as such, there was little reaction to the release. During the follow-up press conference, JPY upside vs. the USD was pared and USD/JPY made its way back onto a 149 handle after Ueda refrained from any hawkish overtures, whilst emphasising that in the near-term, growth is expected to slow and inflation is set to stall. He also noted that the current FX rate is not diverging far from BoJ assumptions. USD/JPY ventured as high as 149.72. If 150 gives way, that will open up a potential move towards the pre-Liberation Day high at 150.54.
- GBP is slightly firmer vs. the USD with Cable almost entirely at the whim of the USD given how barren the UK docket has been this week. That is set to remain the case until next week’s BoE policy announcement, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Cable remains stuck on a 1.32 handle after delving as low as 1.3228 yesterday.
- Antipodeans both sit towards the top end of the G10 leaderboard following the current upbeat risk sentiment. For AUD, upside has been restricted as better-than-expected Building Approvals and Retail Sales data for Australia were offset by disappointing official Chinese PMI data.
- Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it expects an interruption of the tightening cycle, while it stated it is assessing the accumulated effects of the already implemented adjustment and will evaluate whether the current interest rate level, assuming it remains stable for a very prolonged period, will be enough to ensure inflation convergence to target. BCB said the Committee will remain vigilant and future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, as well as noted it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.
Commodities
- Flat to modestly lower, following a session of gains on Wednesday, continuing to be propped up by the shortened US deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. WTI Sep resides in a USD 69.72-70.41/bbl while Brent Oct trades in a USD 72.10-72.82/bbl range.
- Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold the marked outperformer despite a softer Dollar, but with haven flows emanating from tariff woes as the August 1st US tariff negotiation deadline looms. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,276.28-3,314.98/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s USD 3,268.12-3,334.09/oz parameter.
- On Wednesday, Comex copper prices slumped over 20% after the White House provided details on the copper tariff, with a universal 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products effective August 1st, while refined and concentrate imports will be excluded. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,575.15-9,820.78/t range while CME prices trade in a USD 4.3332-4.652/lb parameter.
- Kazakhstan Energy Minister says it plans to supply 1.7mln T oil via BTC pipeline in 2025; Russia wants to increase oil transit to China via Kazakhstan by 2.5mln T.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says discussed situation on the oil market and prospects for cooperating between the two countries within the OPEC+ framework with Saudi Energy Minister.
- India is reportedly mulling options to appease US President Trump following a “shock” 25% tariff level, according to Bloomberg sources; India reportedly mulling upping its natgas purchases from the US, and imports of communication equipment and gold.
Geopolitics
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada intends to recognise the state of Palestine at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in September. Israel’s Foreign Ministry commented shortly after that Israel rejects the statement by Canada’s PM over planned recognition of Palestinian state, and the change in the position of the Canadian government at this time is a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.
- US imposed sweeping new sanctions on a vast international oil trading network which it claimed has funnelled tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue to Iran, according to FT.
US Event Calendar
- 7:30 am: Jul Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -1.6%
- 8:30 am: Jun Personal Income, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%
- 8:30 am: Jun Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
- 8:30 am: Jun Real Personal Spending, est. 0.12%, prior -0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jun PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Jun PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%
- 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
- 8:30 am: 2Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.9%
- 8:30 am: Jul 26 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 223.5k, prior 217k
- 8:30 am: Jul 19 Continuing Claims, est. 1953k, prior 1955k
- 9:45 am: Jul MNI Chicago PMI, est. 42, prior 40.4
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
While the Fed kept rates steady yesterday, a hawkish-leaning tone from Fed Chair Powell led markets to trim the amount of Fed cuts priced by year-end by a full 10bps. Higher yields and a solid US Q2 GDP print in turn left the dollar on course for its best week since 2022, cementing a July revival of the US exceptionalism story that had suffered in the first half of the year. While Powell’s “wait-and-see” tone saw the S&P 500 decline -0.12% yesterday, S&P futures are up nearly 1% this morning following strong results from Microsoft and Meta that have reignited the hype around AI investment. And in case this was not enough news to digest, we’ve also had an array of tariff headlines ahead of President Trump’s August 1 deadline.
Starting with the FOMC, there were two dissents to the on-hold decision (at 4.00-4.25%), with Fed Governors Waller and Bowman supporting a 25bps cut. The prepared statement saw a modest downgrade to the language on growth, but Powell’s press conference leaned more hawkish as he painted a picture of a solid US economy with a labour market that is in balance. While the Fed Chair acknowledged that a “reasonable base case” was that the impact of tariffs on prices would be a one-time shift, he noted the risks that it could be more persistent and even went as far as saying “You could argue we are a bit looking through goods inflation by not raising rates”. While seeing the modestly restrictive stance as currently appropriate, Powell declined to be drawn on what data would justify a September cut. Our US economists note that Powell avoided potential dovish hints, not emphasizing slowing services inflation and downplaying any signals from payrolls weakness. They continue to expect the next rate cut in December, with earlier easing likely to require weaker labor market data.
In other topics, Powell defended central bank independence as an “arrangement that has served the public well” when asked about the pressure from President Trump and emphasized that the Fed does not factor fiscal costs into their rates decisions. He declined to comment whether he would stay on the Fed Board after his term as Chair expires in May. Prior to the decision, President Trump had posted that the “Fed must lower the rate” as “(GDP) way better than expected.”
Following Powell’s press conference, markets sharply pared back expectations of near-term rate cuts. The likelihood of a September rate cut fell from 70% to 47%, with only 36bps of cuts now priced by the December meeting (-10.1bps on the day). Treasuries sold off in turn, with 2yr yields posting their biggest rise in six weeks (+7.3bps to 3.94%), while 10yr yields were up +5.1bps to 4.37%. Yields have retreated by about -2bps overnight.
Prior to the FOMC, long-end yields were already 2-3bps higher following the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement. This was largely in line with our rates strategists’ expectations but perhaps disappointed some of the narratives that emerged to put downward pressure on yields the previous day. In the end, the Treasury continued to anticipate keeping coupon auction sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters”, while the quarterly buyback cap was increased from $30bn to $38bn, slightly more than DB expected ($34bn).
Front-end yields were also boosted by a solid Q2 US GDP print, as the economy expanded by +3.0% annualised (vs. +2.6% expected), rebounding from its -0.5% contraction in Q1. Personal consumption was a little softer at 1.4% (vs. 1.5% expected), but core PCE inflation for Q2 came in above expectations at 2.5% (vs. 2.3% expected), implying a stronger rise in today’s June PCE inflation print or upward revisions for April/May. In other data, the ADP employment report showed stronger job gains in July at 104k (vs. 76k expected), rebounding after a negative June reading.
Higher rates and solid data meant the dollar index (+1.06%) advanced for a fifth consecutive day, marking its largest daily increase since May and its longest winning run since February. With a +2.22% rise since Friday, it is on course to post its biggest weekly gain since 2022.
Powell’s “wait-and-see” tone weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 closing -0.12% lower on the day, having been up +0.3% pre-FOMC. The NASDAQ (+0.15%) posted a modest gain. Metals & mining stocks (-3.94%) led the S&P decline as new 50% copper tariffs announced by the US exempted refined metal, with tariffs on this to be phased in only starting in 2027. This exemption was a big surprise, with COMEX copper futures in the US plunging -20%, eliminating most of the premium that had emerged compared with prices in Europe.
The equity mood turned more positive overnight as strong results from Microsoft and Meta renewed AI optimism. Meta’s shares rose by +11.5% in post-market trading as its Q3 sales guidance exceeded expectations ($47.5-50.5bn vs $46.2bn est.) with the company claiming that new AI features were boosting ad revenue and announcing an increase in AI-related investment. Meanwhile, Microsoft gained more than +8% after-hours as it delivered stronger-than-expected Azure revenue growth (+39% vs +34% est.) and announced it will spend over $30bn on AI data centers in the current quarter. Following the results, futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up +0.95% and +1.35% respectively as I type. We’ll hear from Apple and Amazon after today’s close.
In other trade news, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on India starting August 1 in a social media post, though he later suggested the two sides were still in talks. He also mentioned that India will incur a “penalty” as one of the biggest importers of Russian energy and ammunition. There were no concrete numbers on what this penalty will be and if other countries buying Russian oil (notably China) could be affected also. Brent crude rose another +1.01% to $73.24/bbl on the news, with a 7% gain since Friday’s close.
In the evening, the White House then announced a trade deal with South Korea that will see it face 15% US tariffs, same as Japan and the EU, and establish a $350bn fund for investment into the US, with $150bn allocated for a shipbuilding partnership. Meanwhile, the US confirmed 50% tariffs against Brazil and Politico is reporting that President Trump plans today to sign executive orders imposing higher tariffs rates on several more countries that have been unable to reach agreements by the Friday deadline. President Trump had posted yesterday afternoon that “other Countries are making offers for a Tariff reduction”.
Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning, with Chinese stocks lagging on the back of softer-than-expected official July PMIs. The manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3 (vs. 49.7 in June), marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 50.1, its lowest level since November. The Hang Seng (-1.07%) and the CSI (-1.02%) are leading the equity decline, followed by the Shanghai Composite (-0.70%). Meanwhile South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.31%) is moderately lower following the deal announced with the US, while the Nikkei (+0.90%) is bucking the region’s negative trend.
In Japan, the BoJ overnight kept its policy rate at 0.5%, as widely expected. But in a hawkish undertone, the central bank revised up its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, while also making slight upgrades for 2026 and 2027 inflation and to growth for the current year. The adjustments suggest that the next BoJ rate hike could be coming closer into view after four on-hold decisions in a row and the Japanese yen is trading +0.41% at 148.90 against the dollar this morning after hitting its lowest levels since early April during the US session yesterday. 10yr JGB yields are +0.8bps higher at 1.56%.
Turning to Europe, yesterday’s flash euro area Q2 GDP came in at +0.1% qoq, in line with our economists’ expectation and a touch above consensus (for 0.0%). Across the largest countries, France saw its Q2 GDP grow +0.3% (vs.+ 0.1% expected), but Germany (-0.1% in line with consensus) and Italy (-0.1% vs. +0.1% expected) saw marginal declines. In Germany, the federal cabinet approved the draft 2026 budget plan, confirming expected front-loading of fiscal stimulus and providing more details on the planned infrastructure spending.
European bonds initially saw a slight rally following the softer German GDP print, but yields were little changed by the close, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps) and OAT (-0.5bps) marginally lower but BTPs up +0.2bps. European equities also saw muted moves with the Stoxx 600 seeing a marginal decline (-0.02%),while the DAX (+0.19%) gained and Italy’s FTSE MIB outperformed (+0.89%). The Stoxx aggregate was again weighed down by Novo Nordisk, which shed another -6.31% after Monday’s -23.11%, falling to 7th place in Europe after L’Oreal.
In yesterday’s other news, the Bank of Canada kept rates on hold at 2.75% as expected amid ongoing inflationary pressures, but left the door open for more cuts “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation”. BoC pricing was little changed, with 18bps of cuts priced by year-end.
To the day ahead now, for the data releases in the US, the focus will be on US June PCE, personal income and
spending, and initial jobless claims. In Europe, the data highlights will be German, France and Italy July CPI prints – you see can our European economists CPI preview here. We will also have the eurozone unemployment and Canada May GDP. And the earnings calendar will remain busy with Apple and Amazon being the main highlight, while in Europe we have Rolls-Royce and BMW.
2b European opening report
Tech outperforms after META and MSFT surge after earnings; PCE and earnings ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 05:42 AM
- BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade; Ueda said, no large change to central outlook that growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls.
- US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% tariff and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.
- European bourses opened higher but have waned off best levels, NQ outperforms after stunning earnings from META +12% & MSFT +8%.
- Ongoing USD rally pauses for breath ahead of PCE, JPY pressured after BoJ Governor Ueda.
- JGBs boosted by Ueda, USTs towards the post-Powell lows into PCE.
- Crude lacklustre, Gold benefits from haven flows & copper dented by Trump tariff details.
- Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.
- Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Riot, Cloudflare, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Howmet Aerospace, Mastercard & PG&E.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump announced that the US has agreed to a “Full and Complete Trade Deal” with South Korea in which South Korea will give the United States USD 350bln for investments owned and controlled by the US, and selected by Trump, while South Korea will also purchase USD 100bln of LNG, or other energy products and South Korea has also agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes with this sum to be announced within the next two weeks when the President Lee comes to the White House for a bilateral meeting. Trump added “It is also agreed that South Korea will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc. We have agreed to a Tariff for South Korea of 15%. America will not be charged a Tariff.”
- South Korean Presidential Office confirmed US lowered tariffs on South Korean autos to 15% from 25%, while it added that chips and drug tariffs will not be worse than those applied to other countries and stated that USD 200bln of funds are allocated for chips, nuclear power, batteries, and bio sectors. Furthermore, it stated that the rice and beef market will not be opened and that South Korea demanded 12.5% auto tariffs but President Trump insisted on 15%.
- US President Trump posted “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”
- US President Trump will discuss Mexico’s plan to cut trade deficit with Mexican President Sheinbaum on Thursday ahead of the August 1st deadline.
- US President Trump plans to sign new executive orders on Thursday, imposing higher tariff rates on several countries that have been unable to reach negotiated trade agreements by Friday deadline, while this could include a number of America’s biggest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Taiwan, according to POLITICO.
- Pakistan’s government said the trade agreement with the US will result in a reduction in reciprocal tariffs, especially on Pakistani exports to the US, and is expected to spur increased US investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and development projects. Furthermore, it stated that the US–Pakistan deal marks the beginning of economic collaboration in energy, mines and minerals, IT, cryptocurrency, and other sectors.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced trade deals were made with Cambodia and Thailand. However, the Thai Finance Minister later said they are still working a bit more on the trade proposal to the US and he expects to receive info on US tariffs within 24 hours.
- EU is to give 0% tariff for export quota of 1mln metrics tons of Indonesian crude palm oil a year under free trade agreement, according to an Indonesia official.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) opened higher across the board with a slew of mostly positive earnings from within Europe, and with significant post-earning strength in Meta and Microsoft also boosting sentiment. Though in recent trade, the complex has waned off best levels, with a few indices now slipping into the red; no fresh driver behind this pullback.
- European sectors are mixed, and with a fairly wide breadth of the market. Banks take the top spot, with several European banking reporting today; including from the likes of BBVA (+8%, Bottom line beat), SocGen (+7%, lifts annual targets), Credit Ag (U/C, broadly in-line), Mediobanca (-0.2%, in-line), ING (-0.3%, missed on NII, expects impact following sale of Russian business). Industrials have also been buoyed following key results from within the sector; Airbus (-0.6%, Q2 metrics beat but provided cautious commentary on meeting 2025 delivery target), Safran (+4.6%, Revenue beat and upped its rev. growth outlook for FY), Rolls Royce (+9%, soars after raising profit guidance). Basic Resources is found right at the foot of the pile, pressured by the significant losses seen in copper prices seen in the prior session.
- US equity futures are mixed, with clear outperformance in the NQ (+1.3%) following stunning earnings from Meta and Microsoft which are both higher by 11% and 9% respectively, in pre-market trade.
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AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 7.14 (exp. 5.85), Revenue 47.52bln (exp. 44.87bln); +12% shares pre-market.
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 3.65 (exp. 3.35), Revenue 76.44bln (exp. 73.76bln); +8% shares pre-market.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 1.05bln (exp. 1.05bln); -7% shares pre-market.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.77 (exp. 2.70), Revenue 10.37bln (exp. 10.30bln); -6% shares pre-market.
- eBay Inc (EBAY) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.37 (exp. 1.30), Revenue 2.7bln (exp. 2.64bln); +13% shares pre-market.
- Western Digital Corp (WDC) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.66 (exp. 1.46), Revenue 2.605bln (exp. 2.46bln); +9% shares pre-market.
FX
- The recent rally in USD has paused for breath after DXY stalled ahead of the 100 mark post-FOMC. To recap, the Fed held rates at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with Governors Waller and Bowman dissenting in favour of a 25bps cut. In Powell’s presser, he said no decision has been made about the September meeting, and they will not let tariffs become inflationary, because they will make sure it does not become serious by deploying their tools. For today’s agenda, monthly PCE metrics for June will take centre stage with core M/M PCE expected to pick up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Note, desks expect that inflation is poised for further firming in the coming months. Elsewhere, labour market data in the form of weekly claims and Challenger layoffs are due ahead of tomorrow’s crucial NFP print. If the upside in DXY resumes and takes out the 100 mark, the next target will come via the 29th May peak at 100.54.
- EUR/USD is attempting to atone for recent losses, which have been driven by a combination of the fallout from the EU-US trade deal and yesterday’s FOMC policy announcement. For the Eurozone, regional CPI metrics have continued to drip feed into the market ahead of the bloc-wide release tomorrow. Metrics from France printed 10bps firmer-than-expected Y/Y on a headline basis but 10bps weaker for the normalised print. Regional CPIs from Germany have seen an uptick on a M/M basis from the prior and mixed Y/Y ahead of the mainland metrics at 13:00BST. EUR/USD has found support just above the 1.14 mark. If the level gives way, the June 10th low sits at 1.1373.
- JPY is softer vs. the USD in the wake of the latest BoJ policy announcement. The BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote. The policy statement was one of caution given the uncertainties provided by the trade war and as such, there was little reaction to the release. During the follow-up press conference, JPY upside vs. the USD was pared and USD/JPY made its way back onto a 149 handle after Ueda refrained from any hawkish overtures, whilst emphasising that in the near-term, growth is expected to slow and inflation is set to stall. He also noted that the current FX rate is not diverging far from BoJ assumptions. USD/JPY ventured as high as 149.72. If 150 gives way, that will open up a potential move towards the pre-Liberation Day high at 150.54.
- GBP is slightly firmer vs. the USD with Cable almost entirely at the whim of the USD given how barren the UK docket has been this week. That is set to remain the case until next week’s BoE policy announcement, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Cable remains stuck on a 1.32 handle after delving as low as 1.3228 yesterday.
- Antipodeans both sit towards the top end of the G10 leaderboard following the current upbeat risk sentiment. For AUD, upside has been restricted as better-than-expected Building Approvals and Retail Sales data for Australia were offset by disappointing official Chinese PMI data.
- Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it expects an interruption of the tightening cycle, while it stated it is assessing the accumulated effects of the already implemented adjustment and will evaluate whether the current interest rate level, assuming it remains stable for a very prolonged period, will be enough to ensure inflation convergence to target. BCB said the Committee will remain vigilant and future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, as well as noted it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.
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FIXED INCOME
- JGBs entered the Tokyo lunch break at 137.87, within proximity of opening levels. Thereafter, in reaction to the BoJ, JGBs resumed trade a few ticks lower before slipping to a 137.75 session low – it maintained rates. Thereafter, JGBs picked up off that low and made their way to highs around 138.00 into the presser with Governor Ueda. Within this, he struck a dovish tone saying “No large change to central outlook that growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls”, a remark that has seemingly been interpreted as pointing to less of a need to tighten. Following this, JGBs lifted from just above the 138.00 mark to a 138.18 high with upside in excess of 30 ticks.
- USTs currently holds a very modest bullish bias but is essentially contained around the 111-00 mark in a 110-31 to 111-03+ band. Today, the docket is once again packed with earnings while the data docket features PCE before Friday’s jobs; note, there will be another set of employment and inflation data after this week’s before the September Fed. Back to today, PCE is expected 0.3% (prev. 0.1%) M/M and 2.5% (prev. 2.3%) Y/Y). Pantheon, on the data ahead, expects cost-push pressures from tariffs to intensify in the coming months, which should push core goods PCE higher.
- Bunds are also contained, but in a slightly wider 129.46-83 band. This morning, Europe has primarily been digesting the busiest day of earnings thus far (see Equities). No significant move to any of the morning’s data points. Began with hotter-than-expected import prices from Germany (downside of a handful of ticks), French prelim. Inflation came in hotter-than-expected on a harmonised level while the headline figures were somewhat mixed but both dipped from the prior, lifting the benchmark but around 10 ticks. Thereafter, German unemployment was mixed with a lower rate but a smaller than expected change and an increase to the total. Finally, the state CPI’s from Germany saw the M/M conform to the mainland skew (uptick from the prior) while the Y/Y figures were more mixed; fleeting downside to the release. Bunds are modestly firmer into a busy US afternoon that also features the mainland German inflation figures.
- Gilts once again the slight outperformer. But, newsflow for the UK has been essentially non-existent. At the upper-end of a 92.09-27 band, notching a fresh WTD peak. If the move continues, then we look to 92.63 from mid-July.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Flat to modestly lower, following a session of gains on Wednesday, continuing to be propped up by the shortened US deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. WTI Sep resides in a USD 69.72-70.41/bbl while Brent Oct trades in a USD 72.10-72.82/bbl range.
- Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold the marked outperformer despite a softer Dollar, but with haven flows emanating from tariff woes as the August 1st US tariff negotiation deadline looms. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,276.28-3,314.98/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s USD 3,268.12-3,334.09/oz parameter.
- On Wednesday, Comex copper prices slumped over 20% after the White House provided details on the copper tariff, with a universal 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products effective August 1st, while refined and concentrate imports will be excluded. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,575.15-9,820.78/t range while CME prices trade in a USD 4.3332-4.652/lb parameter.
- Kazakhstan Energy Minister says it plans to supply 1.7mln T oil via BTC pipeline in 2025; Russia wants to increase oil transit to China via Kazakhstan by 2.5mln T.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says discussed situation on the oil market and prospects for cooperating between the two countries within the OPEC+ framework with Saudi Energy Minister.
- India is reportedly mulling options to appease US President Trump following a “shock” 25% tariff level, according to Bloomberg sources; India reportedly mulling upping its natgas purchases from the US, and imports of communication equipment and gold.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- The state CPI’s from Germany saw the M/M conform to the mainland skew (uptick from the prior) while the Y/Y figures were more mixed.
- German Import Prices YY (Jun) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -1.1%); MM 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.7%)
- French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Jul) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%); MM NSA (Jul) 0.20% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 0.40%)
- German Unemployment Change SA (Jul) 2.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 11.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Jul) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.3%); Unemployment Total SA (Jul) 2.97M (Prev. 2.972M); Unemployment Total NSA (Jul) 2.979M (Prev. 2.914M)
- Italian CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Jul) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.8%); Consumer Price Prelim MM (Jul) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2% CPI (EU Norm); Prelim MM (Jul) -1.0% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 0.2%); Consumer Price Prelim YY (Jul) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.7%)
- EU Unemployment Rate (Jun) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%, Rev. 6.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- German Finance Minister urged cabinet ministers to cut spending to close the budget gap of over EUR 30bln in 2027, via an interview with Ard-Tagesthemen.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- China reportedly summons NVIDIA (NVDA) on H20 chip backdoor security risk, according to Bloomberg.
- BofA institute Total Card Spending (w/e July 26th) +0.9% Y/Y (prev. +1.8%) (June avg. +0.2%).
- US Senator Warren (D) sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick asking that new rules developed by the Ministry maintain incentives for companies to keep computing infrastructure in the US, according to Punchbowl
GEOPOLITICS
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada intends to recognise the state of Palestine at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in September. Israel’s Foreign Ministry commented shortly after that Israel rejects the statement by Canada’s PM over planned recognition of Palestinian state, and the change in the position of the Canadian government at this time is a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.
- US imposed sweeping new sanctions on a vast international oil trading network which it claimed has funnelled tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue to Iran, according to FT.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades around USD 118.5k whilst Ethereum is just shy of USD 3.9k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed in the aftermath of a hawkish Powell and strong mega-cap earnings stateside, while participants also digested the US-South Korea trade deal, disappointing Chinese PMIs and the BoJ policy announcement at month-end.
- ASX 200 was lacklustre amid losses in miners following weaker H1 earnings from Rio Tinto and with a record drop seen in copper prices after the Trump administration excluded refined copper from planned 50% tariffs.
- Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 41,000 level after recent currency weakness and better-than-expected Industrial Production & Retail Sales from Japan, while the BoJ policy provided no major fireworks as the central bank kept its short-term rates unchanged but highlighted trade-related uncertainty and raised its Core CPI projections.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following disappointing official PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures missed expectations with the former remaining in contraction territory.
BOJ
ANNOUNCEMENT:
- BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, while it noted that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth but will gradually accelerate thereafter and underlying consumer inflation likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. BoJ stated that uncertainty over trade policy and its developments, and their impact on the economic and price outlook, remains high and noted that real interest rates are at extremely low levels, while it must have no preconception in judging whether the economy and prices are moving in line with the forecast. BoJ reiterated that it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. Furthermore, it noted there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments and their impact on the economy and stated that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade policies could lead firms to focus more on cost-cutting and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, board members’ median forecasts for Core CPI were raised through to 2027, while the median forecast for Real GDP was upgraded for FY25 but maintained for the following two years after.
UEDA
- Rising wages at Japanese firms are becoming the norm in recent years.
- No large change to central outlook that growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls. Moves to pass on rising costs to prices continue. Underlying inflation could slow down in line with slowdown in economic growth. Underlying inflation is gradually rising; not in phase of stalling due to tariffs. Wage impact on prices not picking up too fast. Even if economy and prices undershoot BoJ projections, need to keep in mind that policy rates are low at 0.5%.
- Current FX rate not diverging far from BoJ assumptions.
- Will continue to raise policy rate if economy and prices move in line with forecasts, in accordance with improvement in economy and prices. Policy decision would not depend solely on new CPI forecasts.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.3 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.7); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.1 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.5)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Jul) 50.2 (Prev. 50.7)
- Japanese Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA (Jun) 1.7% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Jun) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. 1.9%)
- Australian Building Approvals (Jun) 11.9% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 3.2%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Jun) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Australian Retail Trade (Q2) 0.3% (Rev. 0.1%)
2c Asian opening report
Fed & BoJ hold rates, hawkish Powell supports dollar; META, MSFT surge after hours – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 01:30 AM
- Fed kept rates on hold with dissent from Waller and Bowman. Powell said will not let tariffs become inflationary.
- BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade.
- US equity futures rebounded after-hours with strength in tech/AI-related names after Microsoft (+8.3%) and Meta (+11.5%) smashed Q2 earnings.
- US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.
- European equity futures suggest a mildly positive open. Hang Seng lags post-disappointing Chinese PMIs.
- DXY rally pauses for breath, EUR/USD remains on a 1.14 handle. USTs rebounded off the lows after post-Powell pressure.
- Looking ahead, highlights include French CPI, PPI, German Unemployment Rate, CPI, EZ Unemployment Rate, Italian CPI, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.
- Earnings from Shell, Unilever, LSE, Haleon, Standard Chartered, Anglo American, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Safran, Credit Agricole, Saint Gobain, SocGen, Accor, Teleperformance, Air France, AB InBev, BBVA, Holcim Puma, Lufthansa, BMW, Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Mastercard & PG&E.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks and Treasuries were sold, while the dollar saw a notable bid in the wake of a hawkish Fed Chair Powell. In the FOMC rate decision, the central bank held rates at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with Governors Waller and Bowman dissenting in favour of a 25bps cut, although little move was seen. In Powell’s presser, he said no decision has been made about the September meeting, and they will not let tariffs become inflationary, because they will make sure it does not become serious by deploying their tools. In the wake of these comments, particularly the latter, US indices and T-Notes sold off to session lows, while the Dollar rose to peaks, and Fed money market pricing became more hawkish, with only 38bps of cuts seen by year-end now vs 46bps post Fed statement. However, equity futures rebounded after-hours with strength in tech/AI-related names after Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) smashed Q2 earnings expectations.
- SPX -0.12% at 6,363, NDX +0.16% at 23,345, DJI -0.38% at 44,461, RUT -0.47% at 2,232.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
FOMC
- Fed left rates on hold at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, in which Kugler did not vote and both Waller and Bowman dissented, preferring to lower the FFR rate by 25bps. Fed said recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of 2025 (prev. Recent indicators suggest economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace) and stated that Inflation remains somewhat elevated, while the unemployment rate remains low, and labour market conditions remain solid. Fed also stated that uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated (prev. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated) and it maintained language that “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
- Fed Chair Powell said the economy is in a solid position and inflation is somewhat above target, while the labour market is at or near maximum level and he believes the current stance of policy leaves them well positioned to respond in a timely way. Fed Chair Powell said most measures of longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with the Fed’s goal and sees the current stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks, as well as noted that they are on track to wrap up the policy review by late summer and will receive a good amount of data in the coming months.
- Fed Chair Powell said during the Q&A that the economy is not behaving although modestly restrictive policy is holding it back inappropriately, when asked about a September rate cut, while they have made no decisions about September and expect to have more information coming up. Powell said the statement about uncertainty reflects changes since the last meeting and it had not diminished further since the June meeting, as well as noted they are still a ways away from seeing where things settle with many uncertainties left to resolve and it feels like there is much more to come. Fed Chair Powell said regarding the dissents that what you want is a clear explanation and had that today; people thought carefully about this and put their positions out there, while majority was of the view that inflation is above target and maximum employment is at target, which calls for a modestly restrictive stance of policy for now. Furthermore, he said a reasonable base case is that tariffs are one-time price impacts, but in the end, this will not turn out to be inflation, because they will make sure it is not by deploying their tools and are trying to accomplish the goal in an efficient manner.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump announced that the US has agreed to a “Full and Complete Trade Deal” with South Korea in which South Korea will give the United States USD 350bln for investments owned and controlled by the US, and selected by Trump, while South Korea will also purchase USD 100bln of LNG, or other energy products and South Korea has also agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes with this sum to be announced within the next two weeks when the President Lee comes to the White House for a bilateral meeting. Trump added “It is also agreed that South Korea will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc. We have agreed to a Tariff for South Korea of 15%. America will not be charged a Tariff.”
- South Korean Presidential Office confirmed US lowered tariffs on South Korean autos to 15% from 25%, while it added that chips and drug tariffs will not be worse than those applied to other countries and stated that USD 200bln of funds are allocated for chips, nuclear power, batteries, and bio sectors. Furthermore, it stated that the rice and beef market will not be opened and that South Korea demanded 12.5% auto tariffs but President Trump insisted on 15%.
- US President Trump said they are busy working on trade deals and stated they have just concluded a deal with Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the US will work together on developing massive oil reserves, while they are in the process of choosing the oil company that will lead this partnership. Furthermore, he stated that other countries are making offers for a tariff reduction.
- US President Trump said they are negotiating with other countries and the rest will receive a “bill”, while he said they are negotiating with India now, and we will see what happens with India which will be known at the end of the week. Trump also stated that they are moving along well with China, as well as noted it is going to work out well and they are going to have a very fair deal with China.
- US President Trump posted “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”
- US President Trump will discuss Mexico’s plan to cut trade deficit with Mexican President Sheinbaum on Thursday ahead of the August 1st deadline.
- US President Trump plans to sign new executive orders on Thursday, imposing higher tariff rates on several countries that have been unable to reach negotiated trade agreements by Friday deadline, while this could include a number of America’s biggest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Taiwan, according to POLITICO.
- Pakistan’s government said the trade agreement with the US will result in a reduction in reciprocal tariffs, especially on Pakistani exports to the US, and is expected to spur increased US investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and development projects. Furthermore, it stated that the US–Pakistan deal marks the beginning of economic collaboration in energy, mines and minerals, IT, cryptocurrency, and other sectors.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced trade deals were made with Cambodia and Thailand. However, the Thai Finance Minister later said they are still working a bit more on the trade proposal to the US and he expects to receive info on US tariffs within 24 hours.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he hears they’re going to do it in September, when speaking on the Fed cutting interest rates.
- US NEC Director Hassett said the data is consistent with the Fed cutting rates and that many economists think the Fed has been too slow.
AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 7.14 (exp. 5.85), Revenue 47.52bln (exp. 44.87bln); shares rose 11.5% after-market.
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 3.65 (exp. 3.35), Revenue 76.44bln (exp. 73.76bln); shares rose 8.3% after-market.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 1.05bln (exp. 1.05bln); shares fell 8.1% after-market
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.77 (exp. 2.70), Revenue 10.37bln (exp. 10.30bln); shares fell 4.8% after-market.
- eBay Inc (EBAY) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.37 (exp. 1.30), Revenue 2.7bln (exp. 2.64bln); shares rose 12.1% after-market.
- Western Digital Corp (WDC) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.66 (exp. 1.46), Revenue 2.605bln (exp. 2.46bln); shares rose 10.2% after-market.
APAC TRADE
BOJ
- BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, while it noted that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth but will gradually accelerate thereafter and underlying consumer inflation likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. BoJ stated that uncertainty over trade policy and its developments, and their impact on the economic and price outlook, remains high and noted that real interest rates are at extremely low levels, while it must have no preconception in judging whether the economy and prices are moving in line with the forecast. BoJ reiterated that it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. Furthermore, it noted there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments and their impact on the economy and stated that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade policies could lead firms to focus more on cost-cutting and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, board members’ median forecasts for Core CPI were raised through to 2027, while the median forecast for Real GDP was upgraded for FY25 but maintained for the following two years after.
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed in the aftermath of a hawkish Powell and strong mega-cap earnings stateside, while participants also digested the US-South Korea trade deal, disappointing Chinese PMIs and the BoJ policy announcement at month-end.
- ASX 200 was lacklustre amid losses in miners following weaker H1 earnings from Rio Tinto and with a record drop seen in copper prices after the Trump administration excluded refined copper from planned 50% tariffs.
- Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 41,000 level after recent currency weakness and better-than-expected Industrial Production & Retail Sales from Japan, while the BoJ policy provided no major fireworks as the central bank kept its short-term rates unchanged but highlighted trade-related uncertainty and raised its Core CPI projections.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following disappointing official PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures missed expectations with the former remaining in contraction territory.
- US equity futures (ES +0.9%, NQ +1.4%) advanced on the back of strong earnings from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, while there is some trade optimism following the US-South Korea trade deal.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.3% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY took a breather after surging to just shy of the 100.00 level yesterday with an uplift seen owing to the stronger-than-expected GDP data and in the aftermath of the FOMC where the Fed kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, as expected, while Powell provided some hawkish-leaning comments at the press conference as he stated they have made no decisions about a rate cut in September and the reasonable base case is that tariffs are one-time price impacts, but in the end, this will not turn out to be inflation, because they will make sure it is not by deploying their tools. Furthermore, attention was also on trade developments after a few deals were reached including between the US and South Korea, involving a 15% tariff rate for South Korea.
- EUR/USD moved off the prior day’s lows after support held at the 1.1400 level but with the rebound limited after recent underperformance owing to US data and Powell comments.
- GBP/USD got some slight reprieve after slipping beneath the 1.3300 handle yesterday with very few pertinent drivers for the UK to support GBP.
- USD/JPY pulled back from its recent surge above the 149.00 level, while there was a choppy reaction to the BoJ policy meeting where it unsurprisingly kept the rate unchanged.
- Antipodeans attempted to claw back some of this week’s losses but with the recovery contained amid the mixed risk appetite and as better-than-expected Building Approvals and Retail Sales data for Australia were offset by disappointing official Chinese PMI data.
- Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it expects an interruption of the tightening cycle, while it stated it is assessing the accumulated effects of the already implemented adjustment and will evaluate whether the current interest rate level, assuming it remains stable for a very prolonged period, will be enough to ensure inflation convergence to target. BCB said the Committee will remain vigilant and future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, as well as noted it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures rebounded off support at the 111.00 level after having been pressured by a hot GDP report and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
- Bund futures traded rangebound after recent indecision and as German Unemployment and CPI data loom.
- 10yr JGB futures were subdued following the uninspiring performance in global peers and after the BoJ rate decision in which the central bank kept rates unchanged, noted high uncertainty surrounding trade policy and raised its Core CPI forecasts across the projection horizon.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were rangebound after extending on gains yesterday in the aftermath of the better-than-expected US GDP data and Trump trade headlines.
- Spot gold nursed some of the prior day’s losses but remained just beneath the USD 3,300/oz level after slumping alongside a firmer dollar and a collapse in copper prices.
- Copper futures suffered a record intraday drop following the announcement of US President Trump’s proclamation on copper which excluded refined copper from planned 50% tariffs.
- White House announced that President Trump issued a proclamation imposing universal 50% tariffs on imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products effective August 1st, while the White House said copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to 232 or reciprocal tariffs.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin mildly gained overnight after climbing back above the USD 118k level.
APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.3 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.7)
- Chinese NBS Non-Mfg PMI (Jul) 50.1 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.5)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Jul) 50.2 (Prev. 50.7)
- Japanese Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA (Jun) 1.7% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Jun) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. 1.9%)
- Australian Building Approvals (Jun) 11.9% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 3.2%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Jun) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Australian Retail Trade (Q2) 0.3% (Rev. 0.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel PM Netanyahu has not ruled out a plan to destroy the rest of northern Gaza and occupy it, despite the army’s warnings about the danger to the hostages, according to Guy Elster citing Haaretz.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada intends to recognise the state of Palestine at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in September. Israel’s Foreign Ministry commented shortly after that Israel rejects the statement by Canada’s PM over planned recognition of Palestinian state, and the change in the position of the Canadian government at this time is a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.
- US imposed sweeping new sanctions on a vast international oil trading network which it claimed has funnelled tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue to Iran, according to FT.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Two top Senate Republicans laid out a plan to allow allies to finance donations of US weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, according to WSJ.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- German Finance Minister urged cabinet ministers to cut spending to close the budget gap of over EUR 30bln in 2027, via an interview with Ard-Tagesthemen.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA/
Lack of immunity because of the covid shots is playing havoc inside China
(zerohedge)
Chikungunya Fever Spreading Rapidly In South China; CCP Downplays Outbreak
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Chikungunya fever has spread rapidly in many places in Guangdong Province and spilled over to other parts of China. Local residents told The Epoch Times that the Chinese communist regime is forcing residents into quarantine and asking them to pay for it, which many people cannot afford.
As of July 24, the total number of officially confirmed cases of Chikungunya fever reported in Foshan City, Guangdong Province, and elsewhere in China reached more than 4,014, according to Chinese state media. The first case was reported on July 8.
In the city, 53 hospitals have been designated to treat the disease, with more than 3,600 isolation beds set up and preparations made for expansion to a quarantine facility, according to state media.
Because of the Chinese communist regime’s record of censoring data it considers politically sensitive, as was seen with its underreporting of COVID-19 infections and related deaths in late 2019, the true number of known Chikungunya fever infections could be higher.
Chikungunya fever is a viral disease mainly transmitted to humans by mosquitoes. Its symptoms are similar to dengue fever. Patients usually experience fever, severe joint pain, muscle pain, headache, fatigue, and rash. It has the potential to be fatal.
There is no specific antiviral treatment for Chikungunya. Deaths from the disease are rare but do occur, especially among vulnerable populations such as infants and the elderly.
The outbreak has also spread from the hardest-hit Shunde District of Foshan City to the provincial capital of Guangzhou City, as well as Yangjiang City in western Guangdong Province, more than 124 miles away. A case of Chikungunya fever occurred in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou, according to Chinese media reports. The Yangjiang City Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported on July 25 that three cases of Chikungunya fever have been diagnosed in the area.
The Macau Health Bureau, which is independent from the Chinese communist regime’s health authorities, also reported a case of Chikungunya fever on July 18. The patient is a Macau resident who visited relatives in Shunde District of Foshan City from July 8 to July 17.
The Chikungunya virus has also spread to northern China. The Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention issued a prevention reminder on July 22, warning of occasional cases allegedly imported to Beijing from abroad. However, Beijing officials have not released any data.
The Chikungunya virus is mainly spread by the white mosquito (Aedes albopictus), also known as the Asian tiger mosquito, Sean Lin, assistant professor in the Biomedical Science Department at Feitian College and former U.S. army microbiologist, told NTD, a sister outlet of The Epoch Times.
“This type of mosquito is currently more common in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces in China and Southeast Asia,” he said, noting that in the past few years, “this type of mosquito has moved northward in China, so other provinces should also be careful.”
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization has raised concerns of another Chikungunya virus epidemic. The WHO said it was noticing the exact same early warning signs as were seen with a major outbreak two decades ago and wanted to prevent it from happening again.
“We are calling for urgent action to prevent history from repeating itself. There is no particular treatment for chikungunya, so people need to avoid mosquito bites,” Dr. Diana Rojas Alvarez, a medical officer at the WHO, told reporters on July 22.
“WHO is currently supporting member states by deploying and strengthening laboratory diagnosis, risk communication and community engagement, training clinical workers, and strengthening surveillance and mosquito control.”
To prevent the spread and infection of Chikungunya virus, according to the WHO, local mosquito control is the key, along with emptying and cleaning containers that contain water on a weekly basis and disposing of waste.
Mandatory Paid Quarantine
Similar to how the Chinese regime handled the COVID-19 pandemic, Chikungunya patients in China are being placed in forced quarantine, which they are being asked to pay for out of their own pocket, according to Chinese residents and doctors.
The Chinese regime’s health authorities are currently saying that home quarantine is not “recommended” and instead, “quarantine at hospital is recommended” for Chikungunya patients.
A doctor at Beijiao Hospital, also known as Shunde District Third People’s Hospital, said that “home isolation is not allowed at the moment,” and it depends on testing results. “Only those with negative testing results can be discharged from the hospital. Currently, no one can conduct the test themselves, and everyone has to go to the hospital for testing.”
The doctor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that the quarantine hospital uses screen doors, windows, and mosquito nets and that patients are treated with traditional Chinese medicine.
A laboratory employee who does virus testing in mainland China told The Epoch Times that Chikungunya fever is not included in the Class A testing category. According to mainland China’s infectious disease regulations, only Class A infectious diseases require mandatory quarantine. However, the Chinese regime is now using Class A disease standards to handle Chikungunya, and accordingly now require isolation.
A local villager in Foshan, who didn’t give his name because of safety concerns, told The Epoch Times on July 24 that his movements were controlled as soon as he entered the hospital for testing for Chikungunya.
Describing what happened when he was under observation at the hospital and wanted to leave the observation room temporarily, he said: “I was stopped when I got close to the door of the observation room. Later, my blood test result came out negative. Then, I was allowed to leave. Those who tested positive were taken to register for hospitalization by staff.”
Local residents said in social media posts that the mandatory hospital quarantine for Chikungunya is aimed at making money off the people. One patient in Guangdong showed his hospital bill for quarantine in a video posted on social media, while saying: “It costs nearly 500 yuan [about $70] a day to be quarantined at the hospital. I can’t afford it.”
Luo Ya and Ning Haizhong contributed to this report
end.
CHINA/IRAN
Iran is set to abandon the GPS system and replace with China’s Bei Dou system. The reason: Israel exploited their GPS in the 12 day war
(zerohedge)
Iran Plans To Abandon GPS & Replace With China’s BeiDou System
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Recent reports in Mideast regional media say that Iran is actively exploring abandoning GPS technology and instead adopting China’s main navigation satellite system, BeiDou. Such a drastic change can’t be accomplished overnight, however, as the world’s dominant system (GPS) has long been embedded in Iranian industries and technology.
US-based and Western technology firms dominate such telecoms and mapping tech infrastructure, and the June 12-day conflict saw Iranian vessels in the Persian Gulf experience repeated disruptions of GPS signal – and it’s believed the system was utilized by Israel and the US to track and target Iranian officials.
Iranian officials were already worried about reliance on GPS even before the war, but the conflict has only heightened existing concerns – enough to race for alternatives. After all, the Global Positioning System (GPS) was literally an invention of the US Department of Defense in the 1970s and is currently run under the Space Force.
“At times, disruptions are created on this [GPS] system by internal systems, and this very issue has pushed us toward alternative options like BeiDou,” Ehsan Chitsaz, deputy communications minister, told state media earlier this month.
He confirmed that the government is working on a plan switch transportation, agriculture and the internet from GPS to China’s BeiDou, according to Al Jazeera.
The same report emphasizes that “Since 2013, whistleblowers and media investigations have revealed how various Western technologies and schemes have enabled illicit surveillance and data gathering on a global scale – something that has worried governments around the world.”
It’s also only a natural trajectory that Iran would become increasingly more trusting of tech based out of China, India, or Russia – as opposed to that of the United States and Israel’s close Western allies.
Russia, for its part, hopes its national or regional satellite navigation system GLONASS can spread, especially among allied populations.
As for BeiDou, it’s seen as going hand and hand as a major tech tool with President Xi’s ambitious Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) which has been making inroads across Asia and Africa.
Al Jazeera aptly concludes in its report that “Iran’s possible shift to BeiDou sends a clear message to other nations grappling with the delicate balance between technological convenience and strategic self-defence: The era of blind, naive dependence on US-controlled infrastructure is rapidly coming to an end.”
“Nations can no longer afford to have their military capabilities and vital digital sovereignty tied to the satellite grid of a superpower they cannot trust,” the report adds.
Indeed the Edward Snowden NSA leaks of many years ago also confirmed that this trend has been a problem for decades, and more recently Israeli companies have also made huge leaps in developing hidden spyware embedded in what’s presented as civilian products and software.
end
CHINA APPLE
Apple Retreats In China: Closes Flagship Store Opened In 2008 Amid iPhone Erosion
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 10:20 AM
Whether it’s the rise of Chinese rivals like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Vivo, the deepening deflation and softening consumer sentiment across China, or the elevated Sino-U.S. trade tensions, Apple is feeling the squeeze in the world’s largest smartphone market.
State-run media outlet Securities Times (abbreviated as ST) reports that Apple has, for the first time, made preparations to close one of its stores in the Chinese market.
“On July 29, Apple China’s official website showed that the Apple Store located in Dalian Centennial City Shopping Center will cease operations at 20:00 on August 9 this year,” ST wrote in an article, adding, “It is worth mentioning that this is the first time that Apple has closed a directly-operated store in China since it opened its first directly-operated store in China (Sanlitun, Beijing) on July 19, 2008.”
ST called next month’s closure of the Apple store a highly “unusual move.”
Apple responded to the outlet by saying the reason for the closure is the “departure of many retailers in Dalian Centennial City Shopping Center.”
According to Apple’s website, it operates 41 stores in China, accounting for just under 10% of its more than 530 physical stores worldwide.
The deeper significance of Apple’s store closure may lie in the latest data from research firm IDC, which shows China’s smartphone market contracted in the second quarter, with four of the top five brands reporting shipment declines amid weakening consumer sentiment. Apple ranked fifth, trailing behind domestic brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Vivo.
In the quarter through June, data from Canalys showed that Apple’s pivot toward friendshoring iPhone production from China to India was in full swing. For the first time, India became the largest exporter of smartphones to the U.S., accounting for 44% of shipments. Vietnam was number two.
ST noted, “The Chinese smartphone market is expected to face greater pressure in the second half of the year.”
Perhaps the closure of the Apple store is the result of a combination of factors. It’s certainly not a great sign for Tim Cook and company, as domestic brands in the world’s second-largest economy continue to erode iPhone market share.
We suspect the move should be interpreted as a sign of retreat from the Chinese market. Infection point has arrived.
END
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HRS
ISRAEL VS IRAN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
you never reward terrorism with a state.
(JerusalemPost)
UK Chief Rabbi slams UK Palestinian state recognition plan
UK Chief Rabbi Sir Ephraim Mirvis has condemned the British government’s stated intention to recognize a Palestinian state, warning that such a move would undermine efforts to achieve peace.
Britain’s chief rabbi Ephraim Mirvis(photo credit: TOBY MELVILLE/REUTERS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 31, 2025 04:00
Chief Rabbi of the United Kingdom, Sir Ephraim Mirvis, on Wednesday condemned the British government’s stated intention to recognize a Palestinian state, warning that such a move would undermine efforts to achieve peace and embolden Hamas.
“Our Government has announced its intention to recognize a Palestinian State – even if terrorists remain in power and hostages remain captive in tunnels,” Mirvis said in a post on X/Twitter. “This can only disincentivize Hamas from agreeing to a ceasefire. It therefore fundamentally undermines the cause of peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis alike.”
The UK government’s position, he said, imposes a clear ultimatum on Israel while placing no similar demands on Hamas.
“The asymmetry of establishing a clear ultimatum for Israel but not for Hamas is an unfathomable misstep,” Mirvis stated.
‘A profound betrayal’
Mirvis stated that many in the Jewish community see the move as “a profound betrayal of Israel’s effort to live free of terror on its borders.”
He warned that such steps risk emboldening extremist elements, both in the Middle East and in the UK.
“As is often the case, when the Jewish state appears more vulnerable, extremists at home and abroad are emboldened, and Jewish people are more vulnerable as a result,” he said.
Mirvis framed his remarks within the context of the Jewish calendar. With Tisha B’Av, the annual fast day commemorating the destruction of the First and Second Temples, approaching this weekend, he invoked the traditional words of mourning.
“‘For these things do I weep…’ As we prepare to read these words in the Book of Lamentations this weekend, on the 9th Av, the saddest day of the Jewish Calendar, its narrative feels painfully apposite.”
The Chief Rabbi concluded with a call on the government to shift its focus toward Hamas.
“I implore our government to apply unyielding pressure where it belongs, on Hamas, the single greatest danger to the population of Gaza and the principal obstacle to peace,” he said.
Starmer responds to criticism
In response to the Chief Rabbi’s remarks, as well as public criticism from former hostages and their families, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended the timing and intent of his government’s plan.
“We announced our intention to recognize Palestine in September to preserve the two-state solution,” Starmer said. “The first step in this process must be a ceasefire, and that is non-negotiable.”
Starmer said the government’s demands of Hamas have remained unchanged.
“For peace to be possible, hostages must be released. Hamas must lay down its arms and commit to playing no future role in governing Gaza,” he said.
He added that progress on the ground was essential for the process to move forward.
“We need to see meaningful steps, including the delivery of humanitarian aid. Israel must rule out annexations in the West Bank and commit to a long-term, sustainable peace,” Starmer said.
The British government will assess the situation before the upcoming UN General Assembly session.
“We will evaluate the extent to which Israel and Hamas have met the conditions we have set. No party will be able to veto recognition through its actions, or its inaction.”
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Israel reject’s Hamas” stupid demands
JerusalemPost
Witkoff, Netanyahu to meet Thursday afternoon after Israel rejects Hamas’s hostage deal demands
OTHER HEADLINES:
Bahrain requests to join countries airdropping aid to Gaza • Iran’s FM says US must agree to compensation before nuclear talks • Ministers, MKs, settler organization demand tour of northern Gaza
Israelis demonstrate for a hostage deal in Tel Aviv, July 24, 2025.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)
Israel rejects Hamas’s demand to release living terrorists in exchange for hostage bodies
Hamas has informed mediators that it will not enter negotiations with Israel until the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves, according to two sources who spoke with The Jerusalem Post.
HAMAS TERRORISTS keep guard on the day Hamas handed over deceased hostages, in Khan Yunis, Feb. 20, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS)ByAMICHAI STEIN, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 30, 2025 20:50Updated: JULY 31, 2025 05:59
Israel has issued a formal response to a position paper sent by Hamas several days ago, where Israeli officials made it clear they reject Hamas’s demand to release live terrorists in exchange for the bodies of hostages.
Hamas has informed mediators that it will not enter negotiations with Israel until the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves, according to two sources who spoke with The Jerusalem Post.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed partial annexation of the Gaza Strip as a potential course of action if hostage deal talks fail, during a Monday small cabinet meeting – an Israeli source confirmed to The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on Wednesday, “Israel is making extraordinary efforts to secure the release of the hostages, while applying heavy pressure on Hamas in Gaza. If Hamas does not soon announce the release of the hostages, it will pay a very heavy price.”
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to arrive in Israel on Thursday as part of an effort to advance negotiations for a hostage deal and to assess the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.
Witkoff’s visit comes as Israeli officials warn that if there is no progress in the coming days on a deal to release the hostages, Israel may be forced to take further action on the ground.
Witkoff concerned over Ben-Gvir, Smotrich’s political pressure possibility, reports indicate
Witkoff is worried that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich might sabotage the deal due to political pressures on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a concern shared by the American administration, according to a Ynet report.
During his visit, he may request to meet directly with them in an attempt to convince them to support the move at this critical juncture, the report added.
Sources familiar with Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations reported to the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper earlier this week that the mediators are working to organize a new round of negotiations.
“The goal is to reach an agreement on the points still in dispute, as many of the issues were already resolved in the previous round of negotiations,” sources said. They also noted that the next round of talks would focus on Israel’s expected response to the proposals Hamas sent to the mediators a few days ago.
The Hostage Families Forum called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to publicly declare his willingness to sign a comprehensive agreement in response to a video message Netanyahu sent to the hostage families via the Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Persons, Brig.-Gen. (Res.) Gal Hirsch, KAN noted.
“We will continue to act responsibly, as we always have, and we will continue to strive for the return of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas,” the Prime Minister’s Office said. “This is the only way to ensure peace for both Israelis and Palestinians.”
Yonah Jeremy Bob and Liran Haroni contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Israel finishes their mission in the north of Gaza
(JerusalemPost)
IDF’s 98th Division finishes mission in northern Gaza
The 98th Division has spent the past few months conducting combat operations in Khan Yunis, Zeitoun, and Shejaia, destroying terror infrastructure, and killing terrorists.
Soldiers from IDF’s 98th Division operating in the Gaza Strip, May 22, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 31, 2025 10:10Updated: JULY 31, 2025 10:30
The IDF’s 98th Division completed its activities in the northern Gaza Strip and is “now preparing for additional missions,” the military confirmed on Thursday.
The 98th Division has spent the past few months conducting combat operations in Khan Yunis, Zeitoun, and Shejaia, the IDF said.
These operations have included destroying over 1,500 pieces of terrorist infrastructure, both above and below ground, and killing dozens of terrorists, as well as causing “significant damage” to Hamas’s Shejaia Battalion, the military stated.
Among the terrorists killed during the 98th Division’s operations were several who participated in Hamas’s October 7 massacre.
The 98th Division also participated in operations in the enclave’s Deir el-Balah, both from June 5-10, 2024 as well as sometime during the August 16-30, 2024, period.
Does Hamas still have terror capability?
However, Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer on Monday estimated that there are still approximately 20,000 Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip.
If Hamas still has 20,000 men, that would appear to indicate that it has made up for many of its losses in 2023 and 2024, The Jerusalem Post previously analyzed. It has lost many brigades and battalions, but continues to refill the ranks. The new recruits may not be able to replace the hardened terrorists who planned October 7. Nevertheless, Hamas has not collapsed.
The IDF is continuing counterterrorism operations in the enclave, including in Khan Yunis, where soldiers on Tuesday seized terrorists’ weapons and destroyed a terror tunnel.
Yonah Jeremy Bob and Seth J. Frantzman contributed to this report.
END
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
Lebanese president calls on Hezbollah to give up weapons, Qassem rejects disarmament
In the address, Aoun added that the country would seek $1 billion annually for 10 years to support the army and security forces in Lebanon.
HEZBOLLAH LEADER Sheikh Naim Qassem delivers an address earlier this year. Recently he affirmed that ‘liberation is a duty, no matter how long it takes.’(photo credit: Al Manar TV/Reuters)ByREUTERSJULY 30, 2025 21:26Updated: JULY 31, 2025 10:42
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun said on Thursday that Lebanese political parties need to seize the opportunity and hand over their weapons sooner rather than later, as Washington increases pressure on Hezbollah to give up its arms.
He added that the country would seek $1 billion annually for 10 years to support the army and security forces in Lebanon.
Aoun’s statement follows Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem’s speech on Wednesday evening, where he said the Iran-aligned group’s disarmament served only Israel.
“Those who call for submitting arms practically demand submitting them to Israel… We will not submit to Israel,” Qassem said in a televised address.
Hezbollah emerged badly damaged from a war with Israel last year that eliminated most of the group’s leadership, killed thousands of its fighters, and left tens of thousands of its supporters displaced from their destroyed homes.
The US is now pushing Lebanon to issue a formal cabinet decision committing to disarm Hezbollah before talks can resume on a halt to Israeli military operations in the country, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Hezbollah has publicly refused to hand over its arsenal in full, but has privately weighed scaling it back.
Prioritizing Israel over Lebanon
“Those who call for disarmament on a domestic, global, or Arab level serve the Israeli project,” Qassem said.
He also said the US was demanding the removal of Hezbollah’s missiles and drones because they “scare” Israel, accusing US Envoy Thomas Barrack of calling for disarmament for the sake of Israel and not Lebanon’s own security.
“Israel will not be able to defeat us and it will not be able to take Lebanon hostage,” he added.
In early July, Barrack met Lebanese officials in Beirut to discuss the disarmament proposal. It would see Hezbollah fully disarmed within four months in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli troops occupying several posts in south Lebanon and a halt to Israeli air strikes.
Hezbollah has been under pressure in recent months, both within Lebanon and from Washington, to completely relinquish its weaponry.
PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY/USA
They have never fulfilled any of their duties.
(JerusalemPost)
US to sanction Palestinian Authority, PLO members, State Dept. confirms
The State Department did not confirm which individuals would be sanctioned.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas holds a leadership meeting in Ramallah, in the West Bank, April 23, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/Mohammed Torokman)ByGUY ALSTER, REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 31, 2025 15:57Updated: JULY 31, 2025 16:11
The United States will impose sanctions on several members of the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization, the State Department said on Thursday.
The State Department announced it had reported to Congress that neither the PLO nor the PA complied with their commitments under the PLO Commitments Compliance Act of 1989 and the Middle East Peace Commitments Act of 2002.
The offenses listed included “taking actions to internationalize its conflict with Israel” through the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, as well as supporting and glorifying violence, particularly in textbooks, and the pay-to-slay program.
The move prevents those targeted from receiving visas to travel to the United States, the statement said. “It is in our national security interests to impose consequences and hold the PLO and PA accountable for not complying with their commitments and undermining the prospects for peace.”
The State Department did not confirm which individuals would be sanctioned.
US sanctions Iranian-linked individuals, Francesca Albanese
The US Treasury Department recently announced new sanctions on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities, and vessels on Wednesday, in a sign that the Trump administration is doubling down on its “maximum pressure” campaign after bombing Tehran’s key nuclear sites in June.
Additionally, the US previously sanctioned Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, over her efforts to have the International Criminal Court take action against US and Israeli officials, companies, and executives.
“Albanese’s campaign of political and economic warfare against the United States and Israel will no longer be tolerated,” Rubio said Wednesday in a post on X/Twitter.
END
ISRAEL USA/IRAN
This is a non starter
US must agree compensation before nuclear talks, Iran’s foreign minister tells FT
ByREUTERS
The US must agree to compensate Iran for losses incurred during last month’s war, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing Iran’s foreign minister, as Tehran hardens its position and imposes new conditions for resuming nuclear talks with the Trump administration.
end
SYRIA/AZERBAIJAN
Syria finally is receiving natural gas through Azerbaijan and Turkey
(the cradle)
Blackout-Prone Syria To Begin Receiving NatGas From Azerbaijan Via Turkey
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on Wednesday hat Turkey will begin supplying natural gas from Azerbaijan to Syria on August 2.
“We made a swap agreement with Azerbaijan, and the gas that will come from Azerbaijan will be exported to Aleppo, Syria, via Kilis,” Bayraktar told Anadolu Agency.
He said ministers from Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Qatar will attend a ceremony on Saturday to mark the launch of the gas flow, adding that Doha would contribute to financing the project.
“With the six million cubic meters of gas that we are planning to send there, we will be able to realize 1,200 megawatts of electricity production,” he said.
Bayraktar added that Turkey will also supply 500 megawatts (MW) of electricity directly to support Syria’s energy needs.
During a visit to Damascus in May, the Turkish minister announced that Turkey would provide two billion cubic meters of gas annually, along with 1,000 MW of electricity.
He also said earlier this month that Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy firm SOCAR may become a partner in the deal.
Syria’s Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir confirmed in May that Damascus and Ankara had reached an agreement for natural gas deliveries through a northern pipeline.
Bayraktar said the gas would fuel Syria’s existing power plants, with initial deliveries going to Aleppo. He noted the supply is meant to help address severe electricity shortages, with outages in many areas lasting over 20 hours a day.
Ankara remains closely aligned with Syria’s interim government. Since the ousting of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, several states have moved to support the country’s recovery. Saudi Arabia has signed more than $5 billion in investment deals spanning energy, transport, and finance.
On June 2, the Damascus Stock Exchange reopened after a six-month shutdown. Weeks after that, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order lifting most sanctions on Syria’s new authorities.
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
RUSSIA
ring of fire awakens:
Ring Of Fire Awakens: Pacific Megaquake First Sparked Tsunami, Now Eurasia’s Tallest Volcano Erupts
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 11:00 PM
A tsunami triggered by a massive underwater earthquake off the eastern coast of Russia, impacting Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. West Coast in the overnight hours, has now led to the eruption of Eurasia’s highest and most active volcano, located on the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Russian media Tass News said the 8.7 magnitude earthquake that struck off Russia’s Kamchatka was the “largest earthquake since 1952.” It cited the Russian Academy of Sciences, which now says the Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano has begun to erupt shortly after the quake.
“Right now, Klyuchevskaya Sopka is erupting,” the Russian federal agency wrote in the post with an accompanying photograph of the volcano’s eruption.
Key facts about Klyuchevskaya Sopka:
- Height: 4,750 meters (15,580 feet)
- Type: Stratovolcano (steep-sided and symmetrical)
- Location: Eastern Kamchatka, part of the Pacific “Ring of Fire”
- Volcanic activity: One of the most active volcanoes in the world, with frequent eruptions recorded since the 17th century
- Last eruption: Ongoing activity is common, with the most recent eruptions typically occurring every few years
- Formation: Estimated to have formed about 7,000 years ago
More footage of the eruption:
Both the tsunami-triggering quake and the volcanic eruption stem from tectonic movements along the Pacific Ring of Fire, particularly the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Okhotsk Plate. This suggests a major stress release event in the Earth’s crust.
This kind of event cluster in rapid succession could indicate a larger regional stress redistribution, raising the risk of additional quakes or eruptions in adjacent fault lines or volcanoes (e.g., in the Aleutians, Kuril Islands, or even Japan).
end
RUSSIA UKRAINE
High Death Toll In Kiev From Overnight Strikes As Russia Reports Major Advance In East
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 03:40 PM
Russia launched another missile and drone strike on Ukraine’s capital overnight, killing at least eight people – which is an unusually high death toll for strikes on the city – including a 6-year-old boy and injuring over 100 others, according to Ukrainian officials’ statements on Thursday.
The casualty toll is so high as a nine-story apartment building collapsed after being hit, and ten children were among the wounded. An hours-long search has been underway by emergency crews who are picking through the rubble, hoping to locate more people alive.
“It’s a horrible morning in Kyiv,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X. “The brutal Russian strikes destroyed entire residential buildings and damaged schools and hospitals. Civilians are injured and killed. There are still people under the rubble.”
Drones and missiles struck at least 27 sites across Kyiv Oblast and in the city in the early hours of Thursday. The death toll could likely climb, and have varied throughout the day.
“Emergency services and local officials said that more than 120 people had also been wounded in the attacks,” writes the NY Times. “Tymur Tkachenko, the head of the city’s military administration, said in a statement that at least one child had been killed.”
Meanwhile Russian military gains on the ground have persisted all summer, and as of Thursday the defense minister announced the full capture of Chasiv Yar, a strategically important town in eastern Ukraine that has served as a key military and logistics hub for Ukraine forces.
The town “was liberated by Russian forces” – the defense ministry says – but Ukraine’s military has been quick to reject the claim as false.
And yet, it was already many months ago that there were widespread reports of Russian troops having established effective control of the city and some surrounding areas. But Russian flags are now reportedly going up all across the largely demolished city.
If confirmed, the fall of Chasiv Yar would likely quickly put Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within Russia’s crosshairs. Both of these cities are also significant military hubs, and home to tens of thousands of civilians. For example, Kramatorsk had a pre-war population of nearly 150,000.
Chasiv Yar has seen fighting for nearly 500 days…
While Moscow long ago declared the complete liberation of Luhansk, a key priority remains capturing all cities, towns, and villages of Donetsk – after already earlier in the war declaring annexation of these territories under the Russian Federation.
END
CLOSER TO WORLD WAR III
Trump Threatens Russia’s ‘Failed Former President’ Medvedev Who Better ‘Watch His Words’
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 02:00 PM
It’s probably not a good thing when the verbal brinkmanship which has long been on display between the world’s nuclear superpowers sees outspoken Russian hawk and firebrand Dmitri Medvedev directly clash with President Trump.
President Trump, in an unusual direct call-out of the Kremlin national security official (for the second time, after an earlier July exchange of words) – and which was issued on Truth Social at midnight – called Medvedev a “failed former President of Russia” who had better “watch his words.”
Medvedev had warned Tuesday in the wake of Trump reducing a deadline for Russia to agree a Ukraine peace settlement down to ten days that “Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran” and so “Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”
This had initially garnered a harsh response from Senator Lindsey Graham, to which Medvedev had responded with characteristic sarcasm, “Work on America first, gramps!”
After Trump jumped in overnight, it took a mere three hours – by then morning in Moscow – for Medvedev to clap back, directing Trump to call to mind the apocalyptic television series “The Walking Dead” and referred to the Soviet Union’s system for launching a last resort, automatic nuclear strike.
“If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram. Remember “how dangerous the fabled Dead Hand can be.”
Trump had also said in his response, “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World.”
This had come hours after he imposed a 25% tariff plus “penalty” on India, set to take effect August 1. “Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way,” Trump added.
Dmitry Medvedev previously served as Putin’s prime minister and later held the presidency from 2008 to 2012, acting as a placeholder while Putin was constitutionally prevented from serving a third consecutive term.
The fact that under Medvedev Russia abstained from vetoing a United Nations resolution allowing NATO to invade and bomb Libya was widely seen as weak among many Russian officials, and likely Putin himself.
Medvedev is now a staunch advocate of Putin’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine and has become a public and social media attack dog on the West of sorts, often acting as bad cop to Putin’s more conciliatory good cop messaging.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
finally they are going to fix the Vaccine Injury system in the USA
(zerohedge)
RFK Jr. Drops Stunning New Vaccine Announcement
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 09:00 AM
Via VigilantFox.com
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. just took aim at a system that has failed Americans for nearly 40 years, the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP).
This program was created under the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, which shielded vaccine manufacturers from lawsuits over injury claims.
Before becoming HHS Secretary, Kennedy exposed how vaccine manufacturers were being hammered with lawsuits due to injuries.
One of the largest manufacturers at the time, Wyeth (now part of Pfizer), reportedly told President Reagan: give us legal protection or we’ll stop making vaccines.
Reagan’s response? Why not just make safer vaccines?
Wyeth’s answer: Vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe.”
That phrase—“unavoidably unsafe”—would later appear in a Supreme Court decision and reflects the legal premise that some vaccine injuries are inevitable.
“And so, anybody who tells you vaccines are safe and effective, the industry itself got immunity from liability by convincing the President and Congress that vaccines are unavoidably unsafe,” Kennedy previously stated.
Senator Edward Kennedy, a key sponsor of the law, wrote at the time:
“When … children are the victims of an appropriate and rational national policy, a compassionate government will assist them in their hour of need.”
That compassionate government never showed up.
Over 39 years, the VICP has awarded just $5.4 billion to 12,000 victims. That comes out to about “1.2 awards per million doses administered.”
In a brand-new statement on X, Secretary Kennedy said he intends to FIX the broken system.
He explained that the court was meant to resolve claims “quickly and fairly,” with “doubts about causation resolved in favor of the victim.”
But that hasn’t happened.
“The structure itself hobbles claimants,” Kennedy wrote. “The defendant is HHS, not the vaccine makers; and claimants are therefore facing the monumental power and bottomless pockets of the U.S. government represented by the Department of Justice.”
He explained how Special Masters, who decide the cases, often come from government or political backgrounds and typically show a strong pro-government bias. “There is no discovery, and the rules of evidence do not apply,” Kennedy lamented.
He added that petitioners’ attorneys report retaliation, fee suppression, and even denied access to the Vaccine Safety Datalink, a taxpayer-funded CDC database containing the best data on vaccine injuries.
Worse, expert witnesses for injured children have reported intimidation and threats to their careers, including the loss of NIH funding if they testify.
But Kennedy says that era is over.
“The VICP is broken, and I intend to fix it,” he wrote on X.
“I will not allow the VICP to continue to ignore its mandate and fail its mission of quickly and fairly compensating vaccine-injured individuals.”
Kennedy added that he is working closely with AG Pam Bondi and HHS staff to restore the court’s original mission and pledges to “steer the Vaccine Court back to its original Congressional intent.”
See Kennedy’s full statement here.
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
BOOM! Prasad is gone, hated Trump, many others & they will be gone soon, Loomer & I will see to it, my stack & Loomer’s X Twitter informed Trump what he DID NOT know; we informed him! Prasad lacked
the depth, breadth, gravitas and IMO know how to hold that FDA post…that was cronyism and nepotism bullshit! he hated Trump for years & we showed Trump; Malone, you are next on the block!
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 30 |
Prasad did not have Trump’s vision or mandate. He was hollowing Trump out and began. Spikevax told us that, that BLA approval. Pure bullshit. People now at NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NIAID are there to maintain mRNA and bring more. We will get you. You were a Trump hater Malone and Prasad and wrote and we got it…start packing Malone, RFK Jr. had no right appointing you to ACIP, you are a con duplicitous grifter…pretend MAGA…you hated Trump, remember I worked with you. you bull shitted Bobby but not us…go back milking semen from your horses…
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘Prasad, a hematologist-oncologist at the University of California San Francisco with a large social media following, became a prominent critic of the COVID-19 vaccine and opposed pandemic-era mask policies, CNN reported.
That apparently endeared him to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has long advocated for more restrictions on vaccines, and his “Make America Healthy Again” movement, eventually earning Prasad a top role at the FDA.’
But over the past week and a half, Loomer has accused Prasad—who had previously criticized President Donald Trump and declared his support for political progressives including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT)—of “infiltrating” the FDA’s leadership and “sabotaging” the president’s deregulatory agenda.
Prasad resigned on Tuesday, despite Kennedy privately defending him, The New York Times reported.
“Dr. Prasad did not want to be a distraction to the great work of the F.D.A. in the Trump administration and has decided to return to California and spend more time with his family,” HHS spokesperson Andrew Nixon told the Times in a statement. “We thank him for his service and the many important reforms he was able to achieve in his time at F.D.A.”’
END
Cui Bono? What? Research shows cancer chemotherapy drugs may actually be causing cancer metastasis spread? He et al. in CANCER CELL journal reports “Chemotherapy awakens dormant cancer cells in lung
by inducing neutrophil extracellular traps”; Chemotherapy awakens dormant DTCs and promotes metastasis; shows chemotherapeutic drugs, including doxorubicin and cisplatin, enhance proliferation & lung
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 31 |
metastasis of dormant breast cancer cells.”
I have long argued that the entire cancer research agency field is corrupted like overall academic research and medical research and grant writing and academic publishing and now EBM, and a Ponzi scheme slush fund for inept corrupted crooked academically incompetent so called researchers who take donor research grant money to create a boys and girls club of ineptness…enrich….seek to find NOTHING…but wine and cheese cocktails in the club….and smoke their pipes…we have moved NOT ONE INCH in cancer research or advancement or help in 60 years…it is ALL a lie, no one is helped…chemotherapy is poison toxic dangerous crap that actually suffers and kills you.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘Using a recombinase-based dormancy tracing system, DormTracer, researchers confirm chemotherapy-induced reactivation of dormant DTCs leading to metastatic relapse. Mechanistically, chemotherapy induces fibroblast senescence, which promotes formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) through secreted proteins. NETs promote dormant DTC proliferation through extracellular matrix remodeling. Importantly, combining senolytic drugs, dasatinib and quercetin, with doxorubicin inhibits post-therapy DTC reactivation and suppresses metastatic relapse. This study provides direct evidence of dormancy awakening and reveals a mechanism underlying detrimental effect of chemotherapy on metastasis, highlighting potential strategies to improve cancer treatment.’
Cancer often relapses even when complete regression of primary tumors is achieved after initial treatment.1 It is postulated that the reactivation, or awakening, of dormant disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) in distant organs results in metastatic relapse after the asymptomatic period.2,3,4 Dormant and persistent DTCs have been observed in animals of non-metastatic disease with analysis of proliferation or quiescence biomarkers, such as Ki67 and p27, and label retention assays.5,6,7,8,9 A number of studies have also revealed the molecular mechanisms that regulate DTC dormancy and metastatic relapse.9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22 However, snapshot analyses of DTC population cannot distinguish metastasis resulting from dormancy reactivation or expansion of pre-existing, albeit rare, proliferative DTCs. Therefore, it is yet to show whether and how DTCs can really awake after an extended dormancy period and lead to metastasis.
Metastatic dormancy is modulated by both intrinsic signaling of DTCs and microenvironmental cues.9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22 For example, neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), the neutrophil-derived decondensed chromatin decorated with granule proteins, have been shown to promote DTC proliferation and metastatic colonization by remodeling extracellular matrix and degrading tumor-suppressing factors in distant organs.22,23 However, it is also of paramount importance to know what extrinsic factors, such as lifestyle, environmental exposure, and cancer treatment per se, affect DTCs and dormancy niches. Understanding the exogenous causes of DTC awakening will help disease management of cancer survivors, offering opportunities to prevent and interrupt metastatic relapse after initial therapies.
Systemic chemotherapy, targeting proliferating cells to achieve anti-tumor effects, is widely used to treat primary and residual diseases, but clinical studies show that DTCs cannot be completely cleared by chemotherapy, resulting in tumor recurrence after treatment.24 Chemotherapy is thought to be one of the major sources of stress that lead to cancer dormancy, while the dormancy state renders DTCs resilient to the treatment.3 However, it is not clear how exactly chemotherapy might affect DTCs that are already in dormancy. Chemotherapy is known to elicit various side effects, particularly by acting on non-tumor components. For example, chemotherapy induces fibroblast senescence, which further results in the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) and chronic inflammation,25,26 and triggers NET formation.27 These studies indicate the possibility of chemotherapy-induced alteration of microenvironment that keeps DTCs in dormancy. Here, we report the effect and mechanism of chemotherapy to promote dormancy awakening and lung relapse.’
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Trump Responds to Secret Service Agent Trying to Sneak Wife onto Plane to UKPresident Donald Trump reacted Monday to reports that a Secret Service trainee agent attempted to smuggle his wife, an Air Force employee, onto a mission support flight to Scotland during Trump’s recent overseas visit.Speaking aboard Air Force One during a press gaggle, Trump appeared surprised by the story, telling reporters:“That’s a weird deal. The wife in the car… Wouldn’t you …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| 2 Arrested in Cincinnati Mob Attack — One Out on Bail from Previous ChargesTwo individuals have been arrested and charged in connection with the vicious mob assault of a white man and woman in downtown Cincinnati early Saturday morning — an attack that gained national attention after footage of the incident went viral on social media.Montianez Merriweather, 34, and Dekyra Vernon, 24, were both charged with felonious assault and aggravated riot, according to …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| FBI Source Says Agency Has ‘Missing Minute’ from Epstein Jail TapeNow, a source has confirmed that the FBI possesses the full version, including the “missing” minute — though it remains unclear why this portion was excluded from the original public release, Daily Mail reported.The DOJ has not confirmed whether the missing minute will be released or explained publicly. Nor has it clarified what the content of the clip reveals — …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| ICE Arrests 214 Illegal Immigrants for Child Sex Crimes in Houston Metro AreaU.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced the arrest of 214 illegal immigrants in the Houston area over the past six months who were either charged with or convicted of child sex crimes, a figure that already surpasses the total number of similar arrests made in all of 2024.The surge in arrests comes amid a renewed enforcement effort under President …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| NYC Mass Shooter Found with Note Pointing to Possible MotiveThe 27-year-old gunman who killed four people — including an NYPD officer — during a deadly rampage in a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper Monday evening left behind a chilling suicide note blaming the NFL for his deteriorating mental health and alleged brain trauma, law enforcement sources confirmed Tuesday.Shane Tamura, who fatally shot himself on the 33rd floor of 345 Park Avenue …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Powellarization Ahead Of T-Day
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 10:40 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
The FOMC surprised nobody yesterday by opting to keep the upper band of the Fed Funds rate target unchanged at 4.50% while continuing to tighten monetary policy through balance sheet runoff. While the decision was completely predictable, the meeting was notable for the fact that both Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented in favour of cutting rates. Our US Strategist Phillip Marey points out that’s the first time since 1993 that two Fed Governors have dissented against the decision, a polarization that will doubtless grow once President Trump replaces Powell and Kugler next year with hand-picked doves.
Obviously, Fed Chair Powell voted with the majority to hold rates unchanged. In case it wasn’t clear already, Donald Trump and Jay Powell’s bizarre walkthrough of the Fed’s renovations last week illustrated the degree to which the two men don’t see eye-to-eye. Trump continues to criticize Powell for being “too late” on cutting interest rates, while Powell struck a hawkish tone in his press conference yesterday by pointing out that the economy is “solid”, inflation has been running above the 2% objective, the labor market is “at or near maximum employment”, and that prices for some goods have been pushed higher by tariffs.
All of that is true, but Powell went on to point out the most recent data suggests that the pace of growth is slowing with GDP having risen at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year. He noted that the deceleration from last year’s 2.5% rate was mainly courtesy of weaker consumer spending while business investment in equipment and intangibles picked up from last year’s pace.
That combination suggests that the supply side of the economy is being supported by capital deepening via business investment, but that the demand side of the ledger isn’t keeping up. If that continues the economy will experience an output gap that will encourage disinflation, especially if rising goods prices courtesy of tariffs end up being just a one-off increase in the price level rather than sustained upward pressure and the multi-hundred-billion-dollar investment pledges being made by US trade partners actually happen.
Central bankers love to talk about the “long and variable lags” associated with monetary policy. Given the long lead times before changes in policy rates are fully felt across the economy – and the fact that the Fed cut rates by a supersized 50bps the month before the election (when growth was stronger, business investment weaker and both core and supercore inflation trending upwards) – perhaps it is little wonder that Trump is feeling frustrated with his Fed Chair and is telegraphing his intention to treat the appointment of Fed Governors in the same politicized way that the appointment of Supreme Court justices is treated by US Presidents.
While tariffs were a feature of the FOMC decision they also continued to feature in the broader news flow as the August 1st deadline for reciprocal tariffs looms tomorrow. Trump signed an executive order to impose 40% tariffs on Brazil – whose left-wing government has recently courted closer ties with China and Russia – in addition to the existing 10% baseline tariff while also imposing Magnitsky sanctions on the Brazilian supreme court judge trying former President Bolsonaro on charges of plotting a coup.
Trump also threatened 25% tariffs “plus a penalty” for India, pointing to India’s extensive tariff and non-tariff barriers and purchases of Russian arms and energy products as justification. Trump has recently proposed secondary sanctions against any country buying Russian exports if Vladimir Putin does not agree to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. In a subsequent ‘Truth’, Trump said that the USA had just done a deal with Pakistan whereby the two countries will collaborate to develop Pakistan’s extensive oil reserves. To highlight his thinking on keeping trade flows within a coalescing US-aligned bloc (and thereby isolating the likes of Russia, China and Iran) Trump went on to say “who knows, maybe they’ll (Pakistan) be selling Oil to India some day!”
Trump also announced via Truth Social that South Korea and the USA have agreed to a trade deal whereby Korean exports to the USA will face a 15% tariff (the same as Japan and the EU) while US exports can enter Korea tariff-free. According to Trump, South Korea will invest $350bn in the USA and purchase $100bn of US LNG or other energy products. Again, this sounds awfully similar to the terms of the deals struck with Japan and the EU and represents a reverse Marshall Plan of sorts whereby the periphery funds investment in the core while also agreeing to trade terms that ensure the core gets to pick and choose what gets made and where. Effectively, the USA is now directing a growing chunk of the global production process.
With the UK, Japan, the EU, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia all now signed on to agreements with the USA and Bangladesh having just agreed to purchase 220,000 tons of US wheat to buy some goodwill on trade, it appears to be only a matter of time before India agrees to terms to ensure that it retains favourable access to the US market and all of those other markets that Trump has demonstrated he has the power to direct through economic coercion. Those terms will almost certainly include Indian purchases of US arms and energy products and preferential access to the heavily-protected Indian market for US agricultural goods.
A potential loser in all of this is Australia. With the US sending more wheat to Indonesia and Bangladesh and more LNG to Japan and South Korea, Australian exports stand to be displaced from their traditional markets. Concurrently, Canberra seems to have given one up for free by rolling back biosecurity restrictions on US beef imports without securing any kind of commitment from the USA on tariff rates or market access for Australian steel, aluminium and pharmaceutical exports.
Aussie CPI printed below market expectations yesterday after the RBA – having perhaps not read the play – inexplicably kept the cash rate unchanged in July despite the market being fully-priced for a cut. While the central bank dithers in featherbedding the economy against trade shocks, Australian politicians (who are also perhaps struggling to read the play) will be crossing their fingers and toes that the tariff rate remains at the 10% baseline announced back in April, and that Donald Trump doesn’t make good on hints earlier this week to increase baseline to 15-20% for the also-rans who failed to secure a deal.
In the words of Darth Vader, it might be a case of “I am altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.”
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
RUSSIA/USA
Trump Envoy Says This Time Oil Sanctions On Russia Will ‘Bite’
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, has freshly warned in newly published comments that oil sanctions will have a serious and hard-hitting economic impact if properly enforced – though they haven’t been up till now, he suggested.
His prediction comes after President Trump’s announcement early this week that he would shorten Russia’s deadline to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine down to ten days from the previous 50. “We haven’t really applied full pressure on the oil sector yet,” Kellogg said on The Record With Greta Van Susteren.
“Russia’s a petrostate, exporting around 7 million barrels of oil daily, much of it through what’s called the ‘dark fleet,’” he continued.
Noting that India and China remain Russia’s two biggest oil customers, he described that the revenue from these exports helps finance the war in Ukraine and fund “huge bonuses” for soldiers being recruited as Russia expends manpower in a war of attrition.
The proposed sanctions, including 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, will “start to bite”…
“If that happens—and if Russian oligarchs start seeing the effects, especially with Russian sovereign assets largely held in Belgium—Putin will start feeling the pressure not just from within his military, but also from the oligarchs and internally,” Kellogg said.
He gaged the current level of sanctions as moderate, rating them at about “six out of ten” while admitting that enforcement remains weak, which he put at a “three out of ten.”
Kellog called for strengthening enforcement if Washington hopes to make the sanctions more effective.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has shrugged off these new threats and Trump’s revised timeline, which is clearly aimed at drastically ratcheting the pressure on Moscow.
“We’ve taken note of President Trump’s statement,” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday. “The special military operation continues.”
He added, “We remain committed to a peace process to resolve the conflict around Ukraine while safeguarding our national interests.”
You will find more infographics at Statista
As for what’s next after US new secondary sanctions are activated – probably little will change, at least initially. Russia has been able to weather the sanctions storm fairly well, while deepening its economic relations with major BRICS countries, and its ground advance in Ukraine east – and even into Sumy lately – has shown no signs of stopping. At home, store shelves are full, and average Russian citizens have been living their daily lives with little perceptible change in circumstances.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
BRAZIL
Judge Voldemort is getting on Trump’s nerves: he punishes Brazil with sweeping tariffs and sanctions.
Bolsonaro hails this as justice not revenge!
(zerohedge)
Trump Punishes Brazil With Sweeping Tariffs, Sanctions – Which Bolsonaro Hails As ‘Not Revenge, But Justice’
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 10:10 PM
In a huge move which the Brazilian government has blasted as rank political interference in its internal affairs, the Trump administration on Wednesday pulled the trigger on previously threatened sweeping tariffs on Brazil, and in addition sanctioned the judge overseeing the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, who has been accused of plotting a coup – and remains currently on trial – after rejecting the election results which brought President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to power.
“Today, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is sanctioning Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justice Alexandre de Moraes (de Moraes), who has used his position to authorize arbitrary pre-trial detentions and suppress freedom of expression,” the US Treasury statement reads.
“Alexandre de Moraes has taken it upon himself to be judge and jury in an unlawful witch hunt against US and Brazilian citizens and companies,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent.
“De Moraes is responsible for an oppressive campaign of censorship, arbitrary detentions that violate human rights, and politicized prosecutions—including against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Today’s action makes clear that Treasury will continue to hold accountable those who threaten U.S. interests and the freedoms of our citizens.”
It is quite significant that the Treasury statement openly names Bolsonaro as essentially subject of a political witch hunt. Trump himself has previously emphasized these precise words in several statements.
The outspoken former president, who has long been dubbed by some regional media as ‘the Brazilian Donald Trump’ – has even lately been ordered by the court to wear an ankle monitor after declaring him a flight risk. Bolsonaro recently returned from what was essentially political exile in Florida, only to be detained and stand trial once to his home country.
This action is very unique, given that compared to other tariffs recently introduced by Trump, these measures against Brazil are explicitly political, which puts the two countries’ long positive trade relations in jeopardy.
But Moraes is now in the spotlight, and pressure could build for Lula to made a political sacrifice and simply dismiss and make this all go away, to preserve economic status quo with the United States.
The US has sought to present this as more than just political and in protection of Trump-ally Bolsonaro, however, as the Treasury also cited Brazil’s “unusual and extraordinary” actions as harmful to American businesses, free speech, and economic interests.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former president, has defended Trump’s actions, saying it’s not about revenge, but justice.
But certainly revenge and punishment is seems a big motivating factor given the recent history involving MAGA and Moraes, and recent very public clashes…
“The time has come for Congress to act. Broad, general, and unrestricted amnesty is urgently needed to restore peace, restore freedom to those persecuted, and show the world that Brazil still believes in democracy,” he said in reaction on X.
END
INDIA/RUSSIA
India refuses to budge trying to protect its small businesses. However a 25% additional tariff on Indian good will have a devastating effect on them
(zerohedge)
Trump Calls India & Russia “Dead Economies” After Tariff Standoff
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 07:45 AM
President Trump first announced his tariff “Liberation Day” in April, and the measures are now set to take effect tomorrow. While countries like Europe, Japan, and South Korea have capitulated to the Trump administration’s mounting pressure and signed trade deals, others, such as India, remain holdouts.
In response, Trump lashed out on Truth Social media early Thursday morning, labeling India a “dead economy” and claiming the U.S. does “very little business” with the country.
“I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” Trump wrote on his social media platform.
He continued, “We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World,” adding, “Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”
On Wednesday morning, Trump fired off another Truth Social post about India, indicating New Delhi faces 25% tariff plus penalties starting on Friday. He criticized India’s close ties to Moscow during the Ukraine war, describing them as “not good,” and emphasized that the U.S. has done relatively little business with India.
It remains unclear whether U.S. and Indian trade negotiators can reach a deal before the deadline. However, Trump’s comments on Truth Social suggest the talks are not going well.
A statement from the Indian government yesterday pointed out that a trade deal with the U.S. must be “mutually beneficial” and protect its farmers and small businesses.
According to analysts at Mumbai-headquartered Axis Bank, 25% tariffs on Indian goods would have a $10 billion impact on exporters.
Société Générale analyst Kunal Kundu said the tariffs could “dampen domestic sentiment” and “expectation of maintaining a relative tariff advantage over competitors in labour-intensive exports has been undermined.” He noted that “disadvantage is not excessively severe.”
“Trump’s causing a lot of trouble for Modi,” said Derek Grossman, a former U.S. intelligence official who is now a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, who Bloomberg quoted.
“A lot of damage has been done today, more than at any time I can remember,” Grossman added. “I’m not saying that the relationship is going to collapse or anything like that. It’ll persist, but I feel like India will be far more circumspect in dealing with America from this point forward.”
So much for all those signs of progress in April when Vice President JD Vance visited India. Vance at the time called a US-India relationship a “win-win partnership” and sought stronger ties with New Delhi in energy and defense trade.
Important to note: India and Russia are part of the BRICS system, challenging the US status quo.
END
CANADA
WOW!! Trump dangling a 35% increase in tariffs if Carney recognizes a Palestinian state.
Carney is probably antisemetic and by doing this he jeopardizes his important relationship with the USA
(zerohedge)
“Oh Canada!” Trump Threatens To Blow Up Trade Talks As Carney To Recognize Palestinian State
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 09:20 AM
Another G7 member is set to add its name to a growing list of nations planning to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations summit in September, following France pledging to do so, and after the UK only this week said it very likely will.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada plans to issue this recognition in a Thursday statement, setting up a clash with Israel and Washington. Canada has “long been committed to a two-state solution” involving an independent Palestinian state “living side by side with the State of Israel in peace and security.”
“Canada intends to recognize the state of Palestine at the 80th General Assembly of the United Nations,” Carney told a press briefing, alongside Foreign Minister Anita Anand. “We intend to do so because the Palestinian Authority has committed to lead much needed reform.”
France has positively encouraged the move, with a fresh statement the Elysee Palace highlighting that President Emmanuel Macron had directly engaged on the issue with Carney and looks forward to “working together”.
“We will continue our efforts to encourage others to join this momentum in the run-up to the General Assembly in September,” the Elysee added.
While some Europeans are hailing Canada’s move, this has already provoked a swift and threatening reaction from President Trump.
“Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!” he wrote on Truth Social.
The threat to blow up trade talks due to Palestinian recognition comes as the US is dangling a 35% tariff hike over Canada if a mutual agreement cannot be reached by August 1 – literally tomorrow.
Over in Europe, plenty of small nations have already recognized Palestine as a state, but heavyweight G7 powers like France, Canada and the UK doing so takes things to another level, and Israel’s government would see it as a full-blown diplomatic disaster.
Already, European officials have grown more skeptical of Netanyahu policies, also as The Hague-based ICC has issued a warrant charging war crimes, which in effect prevents Bibi from traveling to much of the European continent.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1438 UP 0.0009 PTS OR 9 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 149.45 UP 0.232 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3250 DOWN .0005 OR 5 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3832 UP 0.0006 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 42.51 PTS OR 1.18%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 377.91 PTS OR 1.50%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.18%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 377.91 PTS OR 1.50%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.51 PTS OR 1.18%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.18 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 415.12 PTS OR 1.02%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3301.80
silver:$36.95
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.54 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNEDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.123% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.563% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS AND 00/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.272 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.534 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6920 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1438 UP 0.0009 OR 9 basis points
USA/Japan: 150.51 UP 1.278 OR YEN IS DOWN 128 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.570 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3828
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1998 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2119
TURKISH LIRA: 40.60 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.563
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.346% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.882 DOWN 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.932 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3296.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 36.53
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 4.13 PTS OR 0.05%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 190.55 pts or 0.81%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 89.99 pts or 1.14%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 16.40 pts or 0.25%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 650.09 or 1.26%
WTI Oil price 69.71 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 71.82 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.23 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 78/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.466 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.033 DOWN 1 AND 0 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1413 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3209 DOWN .0047 OR 47 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5670 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.560 UP 1 FULL BASIS PT
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.79 UP 1.532 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3850 UP 0.0024 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 24 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.41
Brent OIL: 71.83
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.373
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 PTS to 4.898%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 3.957%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.460 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.029 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.83 UP 24 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.60 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.10 DOWN 0 AND 10/100 roubles OUCH//
GOLD $3291.95 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 36.71 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 330.30 OR 0.74%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 127.29 PTS OR 0.55%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.72 UP 1.24 PTS OR 8.01%
GLD: $ 302.96 UP 2.00 PTS OR 0.66%
SLV/ $32.32 DOWN 0.19 PTS OR OR 0.57%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 110.18 PTS OR .40%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks FALTER As Speculative Mania Takes Hold In July; Dollar & Crypto Bid Bucking Bond Downturn
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 08:00 PM
US equities are trading lower today (despite last night’s epic earnings from META and MSFT) but are on pace for a ~3% gain for the month of July (for the S&P 500) and better for Nasdaq as investors continue to reassess just how damaging the US Trade War will be (or not be) to the US economy, how likely the Fed is to lower rates providing a technical tailwind for risk assets, and how sustained the ‘retail investor’ rally can be in a market which appears to have returned to its post-pandemic echo-boom ‘normal’ after a period of elevated angst earlier this year.
As a reminder, the budget bill was passed at the beginning of the month, providing some greater clarity around corporate taxes, government spending initiatives, and other factors that were built into the bill.
US Exceptionalism may be making a comeback as USA Sovereign risk continued to plunge (a positive) in July, and is now back at election lows…
In domestic equity-lend, Trannies were worst on the month as mega-cap tech dragged Nasdaq to its 4th monthly gain in a row…
The big-tech heavy Nasdaq and S&P were supported by solid corporate earnings: 2Q earnings season started with a low bar (only 4% EPS growth expected) and appears to have so far met or exceeded this bar. The AI infrastructure stocks, in particular, have delivered strong results with positive updates from GOOGL and MSFT, but today saw that enthusiasm wane after PCE (and the FIGMA fuckery). Nasdaq was up over 1.5% at its highs overnight after META/MSFT, but ended the day red (with selling pressure provided by Goldman’s modeled estimate of a $9 Billion to SELL month-end rebalance)…
Goldman’s trading desk explains some potential reasons for today’s fade:
1. very long META/MSFT positioning from HFs into the print + LO supply across the megacaps today,
2. semis weaker partly on lower FY CapEx raise from META, and
3. month end technicals.
NVDA added a stunning $700 billion to its market cap in July and on the back of last night’s gains, MSFT is a tick or two away from topping $4 trillion market too…
But there was some serious shenanigans under the hood in July with momo names ending lower amid some serious selling waves…
Meme stocks melted up before fading fast in the last few days…
…and ‘Most Shorted’ stocks were squeezed hard to new highs until the last week so the juice running dry…
US Macro data was solid during the month with serially positive surprises…
With stubbornly low inflation refusing to reflect the PhD’s fears of tariff trauma while macro growth data has surprised to the upside bigly…
Hard and Soft data both surprised to the upside in July with the latter outperforming as survey respondents realized that all the fears they were told would happen by the mainstream elites… didn’t!!
The strong macro data (and Powell’s apparently hawkish perspective yesterday) sent 2025 rate-cut expectations reeling (hawkishly) lower (now worse than a coin-toss for two cuts), while 2026 rate-cut expectations surged above 3 cuts…
But, of course, tomorrow brings payrolls and the vol market is primed for some pain (but then back to normal ‘lows’)…
‘Uncertainty’ was a roller-coaster ride in July with trade policy fears rising early and then falling back while geopolitical risks fell early in the month but have escalated recently. At the same time, bond risk expectations ended the month unchanged while equity risk declined…
But as we exit the month, tariffs remain in focus even as much progress has been made in establishing new trade regimes between the US and a range of trade partners, including China, Japan, Europe, and the UK.
Treasury yields were higher across the curve in July with the short-end underperforming…
The dollar rallied over 2.5% in July – its first positive month since December…
For the 3rd month in a row, gold went nowhere (ending the month -0.1%) despite testing up towards a record high mid-month. Gold found support at its 100DMA today…
But bitcoin soared to a new record high in the first half of the month before treading water around $118k for the second half of the month…
Ethereum soared over 50% in July – its best month since July 2022 – with only one ETF outflow day in the whole month…
…dramatically outperforming Bitcoin (with the pair finding support at the pre-DeFi-Boom lows from 2019)…
Bitcoin continues to outperform gold, with the pair having found support at the election lows…
Finally, the thing that really stood out from July was the renaissance of speculative risk-taking…
Goldman’s Speculative Trading Indicator (STI) increased sharply and now sits at its highest level on record outside of 1998-2001 and 2020-2021, although it remains well below the highs reached in those episodes
And its not just Goldman’s STI that is flashing warnings signals.
- Call options have recently accounted for 61% of option volumes, the highest share since 2021.
- First-day IPO returns have ballooned, and the $9 billion of SPAC issuance in 2Q25 represented the most active quarter since 1Q22.
- And a basket of stocks popular with retail traders has rallied by 50% since early April.
Interestingly, Goldman’s Chris Hussey points out that even though the two other periods when the STI has been this high were followed by significant market sell-offs, the recent rise in speculative trading activity signals near-term upside risk for the broad equity market. Like we saw in 1999 and 2021, stocks can rally hard in a Tech Bubble before the bubble bursts.
USA DATA RELEASES
in short time we will see the jobless claims rise due to DOGE
(zerohedge)
Unadjusted Jobless Claims Prints At 10-Month Low, But…
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 08:54 AM
The number of Americans that filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week was flat at 218k (on a seasonally adjusted basis ) but tumbled to 193k (the lowest in 10 months) on an NSA basis…
Source: Bloomberg
Kentucky and Texas saw the biggest drops in initial claims last week…
Continuing claims remains above the Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
However, worse could be to come as plans to reduce staff spiked in July to a level that was well above the average for the month since the pandemic, with technology firms leading sectors trimming their workforce, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“We are seeing the Federal budget cuts implemented by DOGE impact non-profits and healthcare in addition to the government. AI was cited for over 10,000 cuts last month, and tariff concerns have impacted nearly 6,000 jobs this year,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
US-based companies announced 62,075 job cuts this month, compared with almost 25,900 a year earlier. The 2025 number is the second-highest for a July in the past decade, only trailing 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 crisis.
In July, Government entities announced 3,666 job cuts, slightly down from the 3,801 cuts announced in June. So far in 2025, this sector has announced 292,294 job cuts, the highest in any sector, primarily due to reductions at the Federal level. Some of these cuts remain in legal limbo, though courts have allowed many to go through.
Technology is the leading private sector in job cuts, with 89,251 in 2025, a 36% increase from the 65,863 cuts tracked through July 2024. The industry is being reshaped by the advancement of artificial intelligence and ongoing uncertainty surrounding work visas, which have contributed to workforce reductions.
“DOGE Impact” remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 289,679 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. An additional 13,056 cuts have been attributed to DOGE Downstream Impact, such as the loss of funding to private non-profits and affiliated organizations.
This is very evident in the continuing jobless claims data from the ‘Deep TriState’ which is at it highest since Dec 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Technology hiring continues to decline, with companies in the sector announcing just 5,510 new jobs in 2025, down 58% from 13,263 in the same period last year.
Is the AI productivity boom starting to accelerate (at the cost of actual human employment?)
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 31, 2025 Issue 7545 | Independent View of the News |
| US Q2 GDP 3.0%, 2.6% expected; Consumption 1.4%, 1.5% exp,; GDP Price Index 2.0%, 2.2% exp.; Core PCE Price Index 2.5%, 2.3% consensus https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/gdp2q25-adv.pdfTable 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic ProductMotor Vehicles & Parts .38, Healthcare .35, NonfarmInventories -3.24 which created Gross private domestic investment of -3.09, Net exports of goods and services +4.99 with Imports +5.19 (5.02 Goods), Federal Gov’t -.24, State & Local Gov’t +.32@RealEJAntoni: As expected, the huge change in Q1 imports has now reversed for Q2, w/ a +5.18pp contribution wiping out the previous -4.66pp contribution (Tariff Angst); but look at gov’t: it barely budged for the 2nd quarter under Trump and is marginally lower after 6 months – amazing!Surprisingly, the long-run driver of economic growth, fixed nonresidential investment, grew just 0.4% in Q2 – this will likely either be higher in the revised and final Q2 estimates or see an acceleration in Q3 (The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ signed on July 4, 2025, provides 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying property acquired and placed in service after January 19, 2025. Fixed investment boom?)@cspan: @SenSchumer: “While the Trump administration will try to wave rosy headlines about the Q2 number, today’s GDP numberis in fact a mirage because some ominous numbers lurk under the hood. Business investment plunged in the second quarter by 3.1%.” https://x.com/cspan/status/1950563665268130087Increasingly insignificant Dem Senate Leader Schumer tried to downplay the good US Q2 GDP Report by complaining that ‘business investment plunged’ – unaware (or is it his staff?) that Inventories drove the decline on Tariff Angst and should reverse in coming reports. Plus, business investment was delayed for the 100% bonus depreciation in Trump’s OBBB Act and is likely to soar in coming quarters.PS – Schumer (Is his staff bad?) mislabeled Gross private domestic investment as Business Investment.The ADP Employment Change for July is +104k; 76k expected; June revised to -23k from 33k1-19 Employees +22k, 20-49 -10k, 50-249 +55k, 250-499 -9k, 500+ +49kLeisure & Hospitality +46k, Financial Activities +28k, Trade, transportation, and utilities +18k, Construction +15k, Education and health services -38k (seasonal decline for teachers)ADP: “Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy. Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”https://adpemploymentreport.com/Avis tumbled as much as 17.5% after reporting EPS of only 0.10 with 1.75 consensus.@cnnbrk: President Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on India and warns the country could face a “penalty” for its reliance on Russian oil and military equipmentESUs rallied from the Nikkei opening on Wednesday until they hit 6416.75 at 2:27 ET. After an A-B-C decline to 6405.00 at 4:33 ET, ESUs had an A-B-C rally, with a very volatile ‘B’ wave, that hit a daily high of 6421.00 at 10:30 ET. ESUs then sank to a daily low of 6402.25 at 11:12 ET. There is NO reason to cut Fed Funds rate if the US economy is gathering steam and stocks are bubbling!ESUs then plodded higher for the expected Fed Day Rally. On the 14:00 ET release of the FOMC Communiqué, ESUs hit 6424.00. Because the minutes were innocuous at best and not the least bit dovish, ESUs retreated to 6412.50 at 14:02 ET. After a modest bounce, ESUs traded until they began to rally after Powell began to speak at his 14:30 ET press conference.Conditioned trader buying pushed ESUs to 6426.75 at 14:36 ET. Traders expected Powell to accede to DJT and go dovish, including a clear signal that the Fed would cut rates in September. After all, Trump stated, before the FOMC Communiqué release, that he heard the Fed would cut rates in September.But Powell body slammed Trump by asserting that the Fed has made NO decision about rate for September. Additionally, Powell’s remarks were more hawkish than expected. In fact, Jay’s comments and bogus observations suggested that he was looking for an excuse to NOT cut rates. Fed Fund futures sank to a 45% chance of a 25bp cut in September from 68% after Jay’s Sept. comment.ESUs tumbled to a final daily low of 6366.75 at 15:06 ET. With beaucoup traders trapped on the long side and the usual suspects pining to force stuff higher to game July performance, the late manipulation pushed ESUs to 6391.75 at 15:14 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESUs fell to 6367.75 at 15:28 ET. A final manipulation pushed ESUs to 6398.75 at 15:59 ET.FOMC Communiqué Highlights No change in policy Govs & DJT allies Bowman and Waller dissented in favor of a cut. 1st dual dissent since 1993. “Economic activity moderated in the first half” was “continued to expand at a solid pace.” “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” deleted “has diminished but”(Ergo, the communique states the economic outlook is more uncertain now than in June.)https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1950617395481002395/photo/1Powell Press Conference Highlights Statement About Uncertainty Reflects Change Since Last Meeting, It Had Not Diminished Further Since June Meeting (Primary but bogus excuse to not cut rates) Many uncertainties left to resolve. (Excuse to not cut rates) We’re Still a Ways Away from Seeing Where Things Settle (Excuse to not cut rates) Most Estimates of Effective Tariff Rate Not Moving Much (Big lie! Excuse to not cut rates) GDP Line with What We Expected, But Still Difficult to Interpret Because of Net Exports Swings Goods Inflation Moving Us Away a Bit but Not Very Far Away from Target (Excuse to not cut) Don’t See Fiscal Bill as Particularly Stimulative Downside Risks to Labor Market Are Certainly Apparent The main number to look at is the unemployment rate. (NO!! It’s U6 Unemployment!) Totality of Labor Market Data Shows Solid Market but You Have Downside RisksIn response to a question about what could provoke a rate cut in September, Powell responded, “I’m not going to say that, no. We’re just going to need to see the data. It could go in many different directions. We’re going to make a judgment based on all of the data and based on the balance-of-risks analysis.”@zerohedge: *POWELL: INFLATION IS FURTHER FROM OUR GOAL THAN EMPLOYMENTInflation is 0.5% closer to your goal than it was last September when you cut 50bps (Pre-election cut)Positive aspects of previous sessionUS economic data released on Wednesday was surprisingly strong.The dollar soared and gold fell on the strong economic data (but reduced rate cut prospects)The US economy is transitioning from Government based back to private industry driven.The US economy is transitioning from overdependence on Fed largesse to real economic growthFangs rallied on buying ahead of Apple and Amazon’s resultsNegative aspects of previous sessionThe DJTA got hammered on Avis; USUs declined smartly on the strong economic data.Gasoline rallied smartly; oil rallied modestly.Powell and his Fed allies are digging in against Trump and rate cuts.Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionThe dollar rallied again! What is telling us? What are the global ramifications?First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: UpPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6365.27Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6396.546; 6336.38Auto Accidents Fall 10% in Major Cities Amid Reports of Lighter TrafficA few weeks ago, reports began circulating that thanks to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) roundups in major cities, the notorious ‘parking lot’ traffic in Los Angeles was suddenly cleared out, allowing people to jet around the city like ‘the old days.’…the number of collisions are down roughly 10% y/y for the period between Jan. 20 – Mar. 14 in both Los Angeles and New York City…https://www.zerohedge.com/political/auto-accidents-fall-10-major-cities-amid-reports-lighter-trafficAfter the close Microsoft jumped 7% on EPS of 3.65, 3.38; and revenue of $76.44B, $73.89B exp.Meta jumped 10.9% after the close on Q2 EPS of 7.14, 5.89 exp.; and revenue of $47.52B, $44.83B exp.@nicksortor: President Trump calls for Nancy Pelosi to be INVESTIGATED for insider trading: “Nancy Pelosi became rich by having insider information …I think that’s disgraceful.” “She has the highest return of practically, ANYBODY in the history of Wall Street… HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?”“I think Nancy Pelosi should be INVESTIGATED!” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1950616450126795233Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea with a 15% tariff on South Korean goods. South Korea will invest $350B in US companies; buy $100B of US LNG; and US exports will have no tariffs.Today is the end of July as well as the end of Fang reporting season with Apple and Amazon results after the close. Nvidia reports on August 27. Stocks will start higher on MSFT and Meta’s good results. The fact that Powell and his leftist allies have explicitly signaled that they will defy Trump, and more importantly, look for excuses to NOT cut rates in September could chill bullish urges. This dynamic will vie with the grand larceny of manipulating stuff higher to game July performance.Exp. Impact Results: CMCSA 1.16, CVS 1.46, BMY 1.07, MA 4.02, K .99, AAPL 1.32, AMZN 1.32Expected Economic Data: June Personal Income 0.2% m/m, Spending 0.4%; June PCE Price Index 0.3% m/m & 2.5% y/y; PCE Core Price Index 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y; Q2 Employment Cost Index 0.8%; Initial Jobless Claims 223k, Continuing Claims 1.953m; July Chicago PMI 42ESUs are +47.50; NQUs are +253.00 (Meta & MSFT); USUs are +8/32; and gold is -16.20 at 20:34 ET.S&P Index 50-day MA: 6116; 100-day MA: 5837; 150-day MA: 5887; 200-day MA: 5896DJIA 50-day MA: 43,393; 100-day MA: 42,191; 150-day MA: 42,676; 200-day MA: 42,870(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6362.90 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5890.09 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6320.68 triggers a sell signalHourly: Trender andMACD are negative – a close above 6395.76 triggers a buy signal@JanJekielek: “Two days after the election in 2016, I was called up on the NSA phone. The person said I had to be on the intelligence community assessment that was assembling to finalize the Russia narrative because we were going to prove that Trump was a Russian asset, and we were going to delay or block the inauguration of Donald J. Trump for the first term. I just couldn’t believe it. This is what I was told on the phone. So, this was a deep state coup from the beginning that actually started in early 2016. We went through the process in November, December.The final product came out in the first few days of January, 2017. But bottom line – [in] the supposed Top Secret Review, there was nothing there to show that Russia was trying to manipulate the campaign or the outcome of the election in the favor of Donald J Trump, that the Trump campaign was somehow colluding with Russia. There was no evidence of anything,” says Col. (Ret.) John Mills. He served as the Director for Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. https://x.com/JanJekielek/status/1950546170855440761Clapper Crew Threatened Whistleblower Who Refused to Sign Off on Fabricated Intel AssessmentA crony of then-Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper threatened to withhold a promotion from a senior intelligence official unless he concurred in the fake Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) on Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election, notes obtained exclusively by The Federalist show…https://thefederalist.com/2025/07/30/exclusive-clapper-crew-threatened-whistleblower-who-refused-to-sign-off-on-fabricated-intel-assessment/Top GOP senator demands probe into whether Jack Smith ‘unlawfully’ tried to influence 2024 election – Senate Intelligence Committee chair accuses former special counsel of timing legal actions to impact 2024 racehttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-gop-senator-demands-probe-whether-jack-smith-unlawfully-tried-influence-2024-electionPatel found thousands of sensitive Trump–Russia probe docs inside ‘burn bags’ in secret room at FBI – FBI Director Kash Patel has turned over the documents to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley… one of the documents FBI officials found in a burn bag was the classified annex to former special counsel John Durham’s final report, which includes the underlying intelligence he reviewed…https://www.foxnews.com/politics/patel-found-thousands-sensitive-trump-russia-probe-docs-inside-burn-bags-secret-room-fbi@paulsperry_: Red mole? Four yrs after voting Communist @ height of Cold War, Brennan joins Carter’s CIA and manages assets in the field before becoming an analyst assessing intel on USSRGreen mole? Brennan gets stationed in Saudi, learns Arabic, goes on hajj, covers up Saudi’s 9/11 role@willchamberlain: Muslim politics and Left politics are fundamentally driven by the same force: resentment of the West. That’s why they can get along despite wildly divergent views on social issues.GOP Virginia city councilman set on fire with gasoline by attacker at his workplace officeSuspect allegedly poured 5-gallon bucket of gasoline on Lee Vogler before setting him ablazehttps://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-councilman-set-fire-gasoline-attacker-his-workplace-officeCincinnati Councilmember (Victoria Parks) Says Whites ‘Begged for Beatdown’She (Parks) believes in “free everything,” and this pattern of political policies is becoming increasinglycommon among Democrats who are openly embracing socialism and Marxism…https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cincinnati-councilmember-says-whites-begged-beatdown@libsoftiktok: Cincinnati Councilwoman who celebrated the violent assault on a white couple just nuked her accountFox 19 Cincinnati: Community leaders face backlash after remarks around downtown brawlhttps://www.fox19.com/2025/07/30/community-leaders-face-backlash-after-remarks-around-downtown-brawl/Sen. Kennedy Says ‘We Need More Idiot Control’ After NYC Shooting“On Capitol Hill, probably beginning in the morning, there’ll be the inevitable call by some of my colleagues for more gun control laws,” Kennedy predicted. But, as he put it bluntly, “We’ve got hundreds of gun control laws, Sean, maybe thousands… We don’t need more gun control. We need more idiot control.”… https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/07/29/sen-kennedy-says-we-need-more-idiot-control-after-nyc-shooting-n4942189Washington Post editorial slams Obama judge for blocking ‘fair and square’ GOP defunding of Planned Parenthoodhttps://t.co/KLwt98HhvuArab nations for first time pressure Hamas to disarm, relinquish power in Gaza‘New York Declaration’ supported by the Arab League, the EU and 17 countries despite U.S. rejection as ‘publicity stunt’ https://www.foxnews.com/world/arab-nations-first-time-pressure-hamas-disarm-relinquish-power-gaza@AmichaiStein1: Hamas has informed mediators that it will not enter negotiations with Israel until the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves, according to two sources who spoke with The Jerusalem Post.Army Secretary Orders Removal of Biden Censorship Czar from West PointJen Easterly led CISA from July 2021 to January 2025, a time period during which she oversaw the agency’s efforts to censor Americans…CISA colluded with Stanford University to pressure Big Tech companies into censoring prominent conservative voices… Driscoll instructed West Point to “immediately pause all non-governmental and outside groups from selecting employees of the Academy, including instructors, professors, teachers, and shaping academic or developmental lectures.”… “We’re in the business of warfighting.” “We’re not turning cadets into censorship activists. We’re turning them into warriors & leaders,”… https://t.co/bLZHlYQVciThe Discourse Is Broken – How did a jeans commercial with Sydney Sweeney come to this? – The Atlantic – Did American Eagle know what it was doing when it made the Sweeney advertisement?…Even her figure has become a cultural stand-in for the idea, pushed by conservative commentators, that Americans should be free to love boobs… https://archive.ph/1LANg#selection-581.0-587.60 @BridgetPhetasy: I can’t believe this sentence is real. I’ve trained my whole life for this moment.And Democrats wonder why they are losing male voters!@G_CURLEY: The Left: Why are we losing support from men? Also the Left: Let’s cancel Sydney Sweeney. https://t.co/ZAFVXr559FGOP Sen Ted Cruz, “Wow. The crazy Left has come out against beautiful women. I’m sure that will poll well.”Beyonce posed in Levi jeans, and ‘they’ hailed it!https://x.com/RickyDoggin/status/1950573393742594074/photo/1Reportedly, American Eagle has sold out their “Good Genes” jeans.@LeadingReport: Kamala Harris rumored to be positioning herself for a 2028 presidential run following her announcement that she won’t run for California governor. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Holly Was Knocked Out By A Black Mob, And Cincinnati’s Leftist Officials Blamed Her
Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025 – 09:15 PM
Update (2115ET):
Meet Holly, the woman brutally knocked unconscious and beaten in the street by a Black mob during last weekend’s Cincinnati Jazz Festival in the downtown area.
Here’s Holly.
Holly days later.
According to Council Member Victoria Parks, Holly and the other individual attacked (White male) “begged for that beat down.” Let that sink in.
The city’s own leadership has defended the mob, not the victims. Even Police Chief Teresa Theetge downplayed the attack.
The message from Cincinnati’s woke leadership is loud and clear: lawlessness is tolerated, and victims are to be blamed.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) first released shocking images of Holly on X. He wrote:
This is Holly. She wanted to have a nice evening out with friends. Instead, she got this. Holly gave me permission to release the photos so that others will never suffer what she did.
Moreno told local media that the U.S. attorney general has launched an FBI investigation into the attack.
Watch Here:
The woke Cincinnati leadership is suffering from ideological rot; leftists reward attackers and vilify the victims.
If the roles were reversed, say a White mob attacking Black partygoers, there would’ve already been protests by rogue leftist NGOs, national media outrage, and every social justice warrior flooding the streets with demands for “justice”, as well as NGOs fundraising like no other. But when the victims are White? Silence. Excuses. And worse, victims get blamed.
* * *
Cory Bowman, the half-brother of Vice President J.D. Vance and also running for mayor of Cincinnati, ignited outrage on X after exposing a disturbing social media post by Cincinnati Council Member Victoria Parks, who said the Whites “begged for that beat down” in downtown Cincinnati last weekend. This comes on the heels of Cincinnati Police Chief Teresa Theetge’s absurd attempt to downplay the Black mob assault, raising very serious concerns about the city’s woke leadership.
“They begged for that beat down! I am grateful for the whole story,” Parks wrote on what appears to be a Facebook post. Bowman took a screenshot of the post and reposted it on X.
“Actual social media comments made by a sitting member of Cincinnati City Council …” Bowman wrote…
Profiling Parks: Here’s what the City of Cincinnati’s website comes up … all you need to know about this social justice warrior:
According to one of Parks’ X re-posts, she is a mega anti-Trumper:
She believes in “free everything,” and this pattern of political policies is becoming increasingly common among Democrats who are openly embracing socialism and Marxism, such as the Democratic mayoral candidate in NYC.
END
Smoking Gun: Declassified Durham Appendix Confirms Hillary Clinton Plan To Smear Trump, Use FBI ‘To Put More Oil On The Fire’
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 – 01:40 PM
On Thursday, newly declassified documents reveal that not only did the CIA believe a Russian intelligence assessment that the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign planned to smear Donald Trump by linking him to the Kremlin, it’s clear that the FBI helped the Clinton campaign orchestrate the Russia hoax to distract from its investigation into her emails.
To review:
- Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier this month declassified several documents – including a 2020 House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) report and other intelligence communications revealing that the Obama administration “manufactured and politicized intelligence” to create a false narrative that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton.
- Gabbard’s releases highlight the inclusion of the Steele dossier – an unverified report funded by the Clinton campaign alleging ties between Trump and Russia – in the 2017 ICA as an annex. The hoax dossier was used to bolster the Russian interference narrative, despite CIA objections and its discredited status. The HPSCI report states that Brennan insisted on referencing the dossier, even though senior CIA officers warned it was flawed, with Brennan allegedly saying, “doesn’t it ring true?
- Gabbard has called these actions a “treasonous conspiracy” led by Obama, Brennan, Clapper, James Comey, Susan Rice, and others, aimed at undermining Trump’s presidency. She has referred the documents to the Justice Department and FBI for investigation into potential criminal implications.
And now we have the Durham annex… which includes a 2016 memorandum alleging that Russian intelligence knew of a Clinton campaign plan to tie Trump to Russian hackers. This memo claims the plan was designed to “distract the [American] public from the Clinton email server scandal.” Gabbard’s HPSCI report similarly references Russian intelligence claiming Clinton’s campaign discussed linking Putin to Trump.
- Clinton’s Approval of Smear Campaign: Pages 4 and 5 of the annex, highlighted in X posts, contain a 2016 memorandum alleging that Clinton personally approved a plan on July 26, 2016, to frame Trump with Russian hacking claims. The memo suggests this was to distract from her email scandal, with coordination involving DNC leadership and outside groups.
- Russian Intelligence Awareness: The annex confirms that Russian intelligence was aware of this plan, which aligns with Gabbard’s claim that the FBI and CIA had access to this information but pursued the Trump-Russia narrative anyway.
- No New Criminal Charges: Despite these allegations, Durham’s broader investigation (2019–2023) found no evidence of a criminal conspiracy among Obama officials to fabricate intelligence. He criticized the FBI’s handling of the Steele dossier and Crossfire Hurricane but did not charge Brennan, Clapper, or others named by Gabbard.
As ZH regular TechnoFog notes;
To briefly summarize, the Classified Appendix provided further information about the matters covered in parts of Durham’s report – specifically, those relating to Hillary Clinton’s plan to link Trump and Russia; the threat of foreign influence by a foreign government; and the Carter Page FISA application renewals.
But the most material information covers the Clinton Plan, and provides further details on how that plan started, efforts by Clinton and her team to influence officials within the Obama Administration, and how the Clinton Campaign would use Crowdstrike to further their theory that the Russians hacked and leaked information from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).
The Smoking Gun(s)…
And as Michael Shellenberger notes, the CIA believed Russian memos mentioning a Clinton plan to smear Trump as a Russian asset: “The CIA prepared a written assessment of the authenticity and veracity of the above-mentioned intelligence. The CIA stated that it did not assess that the above [redacted] memoranda or [redacted] hacked U.S. communications, to be the product of Russian fabrications.“
What’s more, other memos reveal that the plan was to have Crowdstrike and ‘ThreatConnect’ spin narratives to the media in the absence of actual evidence of Trump-Russia collusion.
Stay tuned, things are getting spicier…
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
