AUGUST 4/GOLD CLOSED UP $24.65 TO $3372.55 WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TO $37.34//PLATINUM GAINED $40.20 TO $1337.15 WIHT PALLADIUM UP ONLY $1.90 TO $1192.30//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD/EXCELLENT COMMENTARY TONIGHT ON THE PLIGHT OF THE GERMAN ECONOMY (MIDDLE EAR)//ISRAEL VS HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH ETC SUMMARY BY TBN //OTHER UPDATES ON THIS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/MARK CRISPIN MILLER/PAUL ALEXANDER//NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS///OIL REPORTS: OIL RISES ON FURTHER TRUMP TARIFFS ON INDIA//USA TO HAVE A CRIMINAL REFER TO FORMER FBI CHRISTOPHER WRAY//ALSO INVESTIGATION ON JACK SMITH RE HATCH ACT// MARTIN ARMSTRONG ON GREG HUNTER PODCAST//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
072 C GOLDMAN 8 104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 4 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 534 10 118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 256 132 C SG AMERICAS 10 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 902 285 C NANHUA USA-HK 5 323 C HSBC 320 357 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 142 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 581 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 40 523 H INTERACTIVE BROKERS 2 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 81 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 58 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 666 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 667 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 31 35 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 30 709 C BARCLAYS 22 726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 25 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 6 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 880 C CITIGROUP 9 880 H CITIGROUP 404 905 C ADM 37 7
TOTAL: 2,625 2,625 MONTH TO DATE: 20,126
JPMORGAN stopped 667/2698
AUGUST
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2025: 2625 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 262,500 OZ or 8.1648 TONNES
total notices so far: 20,126 contracts for 2,012,600 OR 62.600 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST
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SILVER NOTICES: 95 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.475 million OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1064 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 5.320 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $24.65 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/./
INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.50 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OUT OF THE SLV/
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 484.083 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1837 CONTRACTS TO 160,117 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BASE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1162 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 675 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $36.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE HOWEVER FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $36.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $36.84 . WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE AT 814 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT STILL SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 38.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 675 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 814 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN MONDAY’S// TRADING OR BEYOND/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 1162 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.19.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 814 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.19) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY FEW NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DESPITE HAVING HUGE LOSS OF 1162 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION
WE HAD A 675 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.70 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 425,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 5.375 MILLION OZ.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 425,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING; 5.375 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 675 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 814 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A SMALL XXX CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAY(S), total 1625 contracts: OR 8.125 MILLION OZ (812 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 8.125 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 8.125 MILLION OZ
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RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1837 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 675 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 675 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 5 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 425,00 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 5.375 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (814 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TRADING.
WE HAD 95 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.475 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9,797 OI CONTRACTS TO 437,777 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 3954 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG INCREASE IN COMEX OI (9,797 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $51.40 IN PRICE// FRIDAY///.
LAST FOUR MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1493 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.221 TONNES OF GOLD/.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2510 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 437,777 /STILL EXTREMELY LOW AND WE NOW WITNESS A LOW COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 160,117 CONTRACTS BUT GAINING RAPIDLY!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,307 CONTRACTS WITH 9797 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2510 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,307 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 939 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON. GOLD PRICE ON FRIDAY ROSE BY $51.40
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(2510) ACCOMPANYING THE LARGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 9797 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,307 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR AUGUST AT 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1593 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.221 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, AUGUST CONTRACT AT 64.221 TONNES OF GOLD
.
/ 3) LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION DISAPPEARED FROM THE SCENE AS WE HAD 1)A $51.40 COMEX PRICE GAIN. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 12,307 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE HAD BASICALLY ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR TAS SPREADERS/ /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS BY THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY
4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (2510 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 934 T.A.S.CONTRACTS/
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 4400 CONTRACTS OR 440,000 OZ OR 13.685 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2200 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 13.685 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 13.685 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.0385% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
UNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 13.685 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1837 CONTRACTS OI TO 160,117 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 675 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 675 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1837 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 675 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1162 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.19 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.810 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.36 PTS OR 0.66%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 225.64 PTS OR 0.92%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 508.90 PTS OR 1.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.06%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1766 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1789/ Oil DOWN TO 66.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.81 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1766 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1789 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9797 CONTRACTS TO 437,777 OI WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $51.40 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2510 ). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //FRIDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 16,261 CONTRACTS WITH MONTH END SPREADERS DISAPPEARING FROM THE SCENE AND THIS WAS COUPLED WITH MINIMAL T.A.S LIQUIDATION.
LAST WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. OR IT COULD BE THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY!!.THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY IS NOW 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING THE CME ANNOUNCED A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE!
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 0 SO FAR
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS GENERALLY THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE OR FRBNY FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 6TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH JULY WITH A TWO MONTH HIATUS)
DETAILS ON JULY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,307 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE , JULY AND NOW AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A 934 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST WEEK’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED YESTERDAY WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1493 TONNES//NEW STANDING 64.221 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 234 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NONE COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY A SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1493 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.221 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2510 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /AUGUST 2510 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2510 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY BUT LITTLE ON FRIDAY
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 934 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE THIS PAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND SILVER AND A CORRESPONDING GAIN OF CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH THE RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK! THE RAIDS THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S OPTION EXPIRY WEEK WERE USED TO LOWER THE HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES ENDURED BY THE BANKERS.
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1493 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.221 TONNES.
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $51.40/ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD MINOR T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND MONTH END SPREADERS DISAPPEARED FROM THE SCENE ////FRIDAY. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY MORNING//FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/ SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /JULY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
ANALYSIS JULY DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 38.28 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE TO WHICH WE ADD SATURDAY’S SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1493 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.221 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $51.40
WE HAD A HUGE 3954 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,261 CONTRACTS OR 1,626,100 0Z (50.57 TONNES)
i) Out of JPMorgan 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) ii) Out of Loomis; 2300.290 oz
total withdrawal: 66,602.200 oz
2.07 tonnes)
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
1 ENTRIES
1 entry: i) Into the dealer Asahi: 96,374.518 oz
total deposit 96,374.518 oz (2.99 tonnes)
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
1 ENTRY i) into Loomis: 48,226.500 oz
(1500 kilobars)
total deposit customer Loomis 48,226.500 oz (1.5 tonnes)
total weight customer and dealer: 4.49 toonnes
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No of oz served (contracts) today
2625 notice(s) 262500 OZ 8.1648 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
522 contracts 52,200 OZ 1.623 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,126 notices 2,012,600 oz 62.600 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits:
1 ENTRIES
1 entry: i) Into the dealer Asahi: 96,374.518 oz
total deposit 96,374.518 oz
(2.99 tonnes)
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY i) into Loomis: 48,226.500 oz
(1500 kilobars)
total deposit customer Loomis 48,226.500 oz (1.5 tonnes)
total weight customer and dealer: 4.49 tonnes
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customer withdrawal
two entries
i) Out of JPMorgan 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) ii) Out of Loomis; 2300.290 oz
total withdrawal: 66,602.200 oz
2.07 tonnes)
adjustments: 1
Malca: customer to dealer; 32,118.849 oz (999 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 3,147 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2,149 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 2197 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A SMALL 48 CONTRACTS OR A 4800 OZ OF GOLD (0.1493 TONNES) EXERCISED A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE WILLING TO STAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS REPRESENTS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
SEPT GAINED 398 CONTRACTS TO 5083
OCTOBER GAINED 2258 CONTRACTS UP TO 69,351
We had 2625 contracts filed for today representing 262,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and O notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2625 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 667 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,126 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 3147 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2625 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,064,700 OZ OR 64.221TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (20,126 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (3147 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2625 x 100 oz) which equals 2,064,700 OZ OR 64.221 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 64.221 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.743 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 506.602Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 106 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 34 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 51 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 85 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 425,000 OZ WILL STAND AS THEY ENTERTAINED A STRONG QUEUE JUMP
SEPTEMBER LOST 3067 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 109,684 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER GAINED 6 CONTRACTS TO 374
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 95 or 0.475 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 75,097 good//
AND NOW AUGUST DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1064 X5,000 oz = 5.320 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (106) AND the number of notices served upon today (95 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (1064) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(106) minus number of notices served upon today (95)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 5.375 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 5.375 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.743 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/506.602 million. 41.65%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 953.08 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
Banks simply lend credit into existence. Ideas that they are simply financial intermediaries, or that they lend deposits are incorrect. This article explains why.
Economists of all disciplines are seemingly unaware of the credit creation process. In their theoretical discourses of money and credit they assume that banks are intermediaries, taking in deposits and lending them out. Consequently, they are seen to have little consequence in economic analysis.
The exception, perhaps, is the Austrian school which posits that bank credit is destabilising. But even there, Ludwig von Mises in his The Theory of Money and Credit appears confused on this issue, writing,
“The activity of banks as negotiators of credit is characterized by the lending of other people’s, i.e. of borrowed money. Banks borrow money in order to lend it; the difference between the rate of interest that is paid to them and the rate that they pay less their working expenses constitutes their profit on this kind of transaction”[i]
In a youtube interview of Richard Werner by Tucker Calson, Werner correctly identified the process of bank credit creation. It was subsequently followed by a commentary on this topic by two senior economists of the Austrian School, Bob Murphy and Jonathan Newman to whom the concept appeared to be new to them, having been schooled in von Mises’s analysis.
In this article I shall explain why the fractional reserve theory is incorrect, and Werner’s explanation of credit creation is what actually happens. For the avoidance of doubt and to clarify the position, we must make two important definitions at the outset:
· Gold is money, and everything else is credit. Gold has no counterparty risk and is final settlement, extinguishing credit. Credit is always on the other side of a balance sheet to a debt obligation.
· Banks are dealers in credit.
Defining credit
When both Werner and the Austrians talk of credit as money, they are factually incorrect. The difference was set out in Justinian’s Pandects in Roman law, which is the basis of common law in all the empire’s successor nations, their colonies, and dominions including the USA. No amount of gold ownership bans, executive orders, or confiscation alters this fact. Technically, gold is corporeal money, and credit which has no physical existence is incorporeal.
Gold needs no further definition. Credit exists in many forms, but it is always an obligation for future settlement. It is ubiquitous and governs all our business relationships, gold rarely being used in settlement. A tradesman will be employed in his work, extending credit to his customer until the work is completed satisfactorily when he expects payment to be made. Unless he is paid in advance, an employee will provide his skills extending credit to his employer until the end of the week, or month, when he also expects to be paid.
Bonds are an obligation to pay interest and repay the principal under the terms of a loan agreement or prospectus. Even shares in a company are credit, because they represent a commitment by the company’s management to deliver an income stream or to accumulate value in the company in trust for the shareholder. Everything works on credit, where payment is a promised obligation.
All financial instruments are credit. That they have value is again down to Justinian’s Pandects, which incorporated the findings of two Roman jurors, Ulpian and Julius Paulus in the second and third centuries AD. These two jurors ruled that a credit could be exchanged without a debtor’s agreement. No transfer, no value: even bad debts are bought and sold, and modern capital markets could not exist without their rulings.
It is vital to understand the all-embracing role of credit in an economy. It goes far beyond banking. Anyone can and does create credit, subject to his or her credibility.
Credit is wrongly termed money by economists and statisticians alike. A national currency is a promise to pay in gold and appears as such on the issuing central bank’s balance sheet as a liability. The best it ever was was a money substitute; today it is only fiat. Checking and deposit accounts with commercial banks are credit denominated in a national currency, representing a bank’s promise to pay its customers.
In practice, money in the form of gold coin or bars is almost never used as circulating media. When you pay someone with a bank deposit, it is either in cash which is a central bank’s liability, or by cheque or deposit-transfer from your bank to your creditor’s bank. In days of gold standards, nations and traders would settle trade imbalances in gold particularly when there was credit risk perceived in holding a foreign currency. But that finally ceased in 1971 when the Bretton Woods agreement was “suspended”.
How banks create credit
Werner referred to the Goldsmiths in London as the originators of modern banking. In fact, banking was invented by the Romans, but the basis of credit creation today was in London in the seventeenth century during the civil war (1642—1651). Goldsmiths routinely stored gold and silver for customers, issuing receipts as evidence of ownership. and they soon discovered that these receipts changed hands as a more convenient form of payment than gold itself.
The goldsmiths then found that they themselves could issue credit based on customers’ gold so long as the customer was prepared to relinquish ownership in return for interest at 6% before ownership was returned on demand.
It should be noted that the interest paid by a goldsmith to a customer came from the goldsmith’s general profits and was by way of a dividend and not interest earned on his deposit by lending it out. Presumably, it was this error in understanding which led economists to incorrectly believe that deposit-taking was the basis of fractional reserve banking.
The goldsmiths soon found that they could safely issue more loans than they had gold to back them, based on a calculation of the likelihood of depositing customers demanding the return of their gold. It was from this practice that modern banking evolved, with bank credit extended to merchants and businesses being entirely responsible for financing the rapid development of Britain’s industrial revolution.
As dealers in credit, banks were doing what we all do by creating credit and obligations in our day-to-day business activities. They would simply offer credit at interest to a customer they deemed creditworthy , crediting his account to enable him to draw down the loan. The simplified illustration below shows how this works in practice, starting with the bank’s own capital:
The bank creates the loan and, in its books, a matching deposit. Notice how the bank does not use its own capital. By creating the loan, the bank doubles its own capital from interest earned in this example.
Importantly, as the customer draws down on the loan, the balance on his deposit reduces by the same amount exactly. The loan is drawn down in order to pay the customer’s own creditors who may or may not bank with the same bank. This creates deposits in other names some elsewhere, leading to an imbalance between the bank’s liabilities and assets. When this imbalance is not offset by other customer’s movements, the bank either has a surplus on its assets to lend to other banks, or a surplus on its liabilities which it has to fund from other banks. This is the purpose of bank clearing facilities and the function of the interbank market.
“The vast majority of money held by the public takes the form of bank deposits. But where the stock of bank deposits comes from is often misunderstood. One common misconception is that banks act simply as intermediaries, lending out the deposits that savers place with them. In this view deposits are typically ‘created’ by the saving decisions of households, and banks then ‘lend out’ those existing deposits to borrowers, for example to companies looking to finance investment or individuals wanting to purchase houses.
“In fact, when households choose to save more money in bank accounts, those deposits come simply at the expense of deposits that would have otherwise gone to companies in payment for goods and services. Saving does not by itself increase the deposits or ‘funds available’ for banks to lend. Indeed, viewing banks simply as intermediaries ignores the fact that, in reality in the modern economy, commercial banks are the creators of deposit money. This article explains how, rather than banks lending out deposits that are placed with them, the act of lending creates deposits — the reverse of the sequence typically described in textbooks.”
It really is that simple.
Why fractional reserve banking is incorrect
Fractional reserve banking assumes that a customer first deposits currency or payment from another bank into his bank. The bank then lends most of it, typically assumed to be 90% of the deposit, keeping a reserve of 10% against the possibility of default. Hence the term, fractional reserve.
This begs the question as to where the first deposit comes from. It can’t come from another bank. Presumably, it is currency in the form of notes issued by the central bank.
The story then goes that the 90% is loaned out to be spent by the borrower, ending up as deposits in other banks. Other banks then lend out 90% of that. By a series of loans through the banking system, the original deposit is said to end up being multiplied nearly nine times through this iterative process.
A moment’s thought will dismiss the multiplier argument, because the closest the banking system can get to lending the entire deposit is only 90% of it, however many banks are involved. But it doesn’t stop claims that a money multiplier effect inflates bank credit, as the screenshot below from an article by Princeton University demonstrates:
The error is to not recognise that it is the same credit leant out by banks A to K. By the same token, you would say that a $100 banknote circulating from hand to hand increases the money supply by much more than its notional value. Obviously, it does not.
In any event, the fractional reserve banking theory is incorrect, as the Bank of England article and its extract above makes clear. I covered this point in a film for The Cobden Centre which was premiered at the House of Lords in 2023. My contribution starts at 9 minutes, and is confirmed at 8 minutes in by William White, who was an economic advisor to the Bank for International Settlements, having started his career at the Bank of England and spent 22 years at the Bank of Canada.
Richard Werner’s interview by Tucker Carlson threw up other insights in the world of bank credit which are derived from a proper understanding of bank credit creation, but these are beyond the scope of this article.
[i] See The Theory of Money and Credit, Part 3, Chapter 1, section 2.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 234
ANDREW INTERVIEWS: LONDON PAUL:
5. COMMODITY REPORT..COPPER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.36 PTS OR 0.66%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 225.64 PTS OR 0.92%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 508.90 PTS OR 1.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.06%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1766 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1789/ Oil DOWN TO 66.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.81 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1766 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1789 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1766 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1789
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 225.64 PTS OR 0.92%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 508.90 PTS OR 1/25%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.62/ EURO FALLS TO 1.1571 DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.503//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.74…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6718/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.512 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.247%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.369
3j Gold at $3259.00 Silver at: 37.22 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 21 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79/71
3m oil (WTI) into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147/74// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.503% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8083 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9353 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.246 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.847 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.714 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.68
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.586 UP 0 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.385 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.942 DOWN 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise, Recovering From Friday’s Dump On Rising Rate Cut Expectations
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 08:06 AM
Futures are higher as markets rebound from last week’s sell-off amid increased expectations the Fed will ride to the rescue with rate cuts following Friday’s dismal US jobs data. As of 7:45am ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7% after the index had its biggest decline since May on Friday. Pre-market, Mag7 and Semis are outperforming with Cyclicals over Defensives. Bond yields are 2-3bp higher as the USD falls again. Commodities are weaker with Energy underperforming as OPEC+ approves another supply hike. This is a catalyst-light week with tomorrow’s ISM the most important and heightened focus on weekly claims with the Fed spotlighting the unemployment rate.
In premarket trading, all Magnificent Seven stocks are higher alongside index futures (Amazon +1.8% after a Friday selloff, Nvidia +1.2%, Meta Platforms +1.1%, Tesla +1%, Alphabet +0.8%, Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.8%). here are the other notable premarket movers:
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) is down 0.6% after Warren Buffett’s company took a $3.8 billion impairment on its Kraft Heinz stake.
Boeing (BA) falls 0.3% as workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories strike for the first time in almost three decades.
Blade Air Mobility Inc. (BLDE) is up 16% after Bloomberg reported that Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) is exploring an acquisition of the helicopter ride-share operator. Joby shares are up 5%.
CommScope (COMM) shares climbed 42% before being halted after reaching a deal to sell its broadband connectivity arm for about $10.5 billion in cash to Amphenol Corp. as it seeks to cut its debt. Amphenol (APH) gains 4%.
Kodiak Gas (KGS) rises 5% after the announcement that the provider of natural gas compression services will join the S&P Small Cap 600 Index.
Opendoor (OPEN) climbs 14% as much as 20% after the company regained compliance with the Nasdaq exchange.
Spotify (SPOT) gains 3% after the audio-streaming company said it will increase the monthly cost of premium subscriptions in some markets.
Steelcase Inc. (SCS) soars 45 % after HNI (HNI) agreed to buy the company. HNI shares are down 20%.
Tyson Foods (TSN) rises 4% as management raised its earnings forecast after quarterly profit unexpectedly rose as a boom in US chicken continues to offset losses in the beef business.
Wayfair rises 11% after the e-commerce firm posted second quarter profit that sailed past estimates.
Friday’s tumble on Wall Street, which was sparked by rising US unemployment and slower job creation, boosted bets for a Fed rate cut to prop up the market economy. Traders rushed into Treasuries despite worries about the inflationary effect of Trump’s tariffs, which have kept policy makers in hawkish mode.
“We’re buyers of pullbacks and bullish the next 12 months,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note. “We think the Fed will eventually transition to cuts. Friday may be all we get to the downside for now; that is, until the next payroll number or other weaker, lagging growth data is potentially revealed.”
Overnight-indexed swaps signaled more than 80% odds of a reduction next month while fully pricing in one more cut by year-end. Some market-watchers are even anticipating the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points, twice the regular amount. That may be too optimistic, given the outlook for inflation and growth, according to Pictet Wealth Management.
Separately, Trump said he will announce a new Fed governor and jobs data statistician in the coming days, two appointments that could shape his economic agenda. The Fed announced Friday that Adriana Kugler will step down from her position as a governor, giving Trump an opportunity to install a policymaker who aligns with his demands for lower interest rates. Also on Friday, Trump fired chief labor statistician Erika McEntarfer hours after labor market data showed weak jobs growth based in part on steep downward revisions for May and June.
Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sounded a cautiously optimistic note on discussions with China on rare earth flows, following trade talks that further steadied ties between the economies. “Things have changed dramatically in the trade environment globally, not only the US,” veteran investor Mark Mobius said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “People are looking at this much more realistically. There’s going to be a lot of thinking about how to make things fairer for all countries involved.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose about 0.6%. Banks led the advance after UK lenders won a major reprieve in a pivotal UK car finance case, with Lloyds Banking Group Plc surging more than 7%. As noted above, the Swiss stocks benchmark, meanwhile, fell as the market reopened after a holiday, on worries about the impact from US President Donald Trump’s punitive 39% export tariff and a push for drugmakers to lower prices. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
UK lenders including Lloyds and Barclays advance after they won a major reprieve in a pivotal UK car finance case; Jefferies analyst Jonathan Pierce says the ruling is a “huge win for industry” that shows “common sense”
Clarkson shares rise as much as 6.4% to the highest level since March after the shipping-services company posted results ahead of expectations and reiterated its guidance, which analysts at Panmure Liberum say is reassuring
Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 2.9%, paring some of last week’s record 32% drop. Goldman Sachs analysts say bull/bear scenarios for the Danish drugmaker “suggest upside risk”
TeamViewer shares rise as much as 3.5% as Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades the German software company to buy as it sees momentum improving in the coming quarters and says this isn’t factored into the valuation
Metlen Energy and Metals’ shares rose in its debut on the London Stock Exchange on Monday after moving its primary listing from Athens, although the trading in the stock was relatively thin
Swiss stocks are down as the market resumes trading for the first time since President Trump unexpectedly slapped punitive 39% tariffs on the country. Roche, ABB and UBS are among the biggest decliners in the SMI Index
Stabilus shares fall as much as 12% after the German machinery and equipment maker’s 3Q earnings missed expectations, according to Bernstein, while it narrowed its full-year adjusted Ebit margin and revenue forecast
Auction Technology Group drops as much as 22%, the most since 2023, after the online marketplace operator downgraded its margin guidance for the full year, which analysts at Panmure Liberum said will pressure consensus
Swiss stocks slumped as the market reopened after a holiday, on worries about the impact from US President Donald Trump’s punitive 39% export tariff and a push for drugmakers to lower prices.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities traded in a narrow range, with Japanese stocks leading declines while South Korean shares rose after growing optimism a controversial tax plan may be revised. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained slightly, erasing an earlier loss of as much as 0.5%. Advances in Tencent and Nintendo helped boost the regional benchmark. MUFG was among the biggest drags along with other Japanese large caps including Recruit and Hitachi. Key equity indexes fell more than 1% in Tokyo while the yen climbed, as Friday’s weak US payrolls data raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Korean benchmarks rebounded as a petition to withdraw planned corporate and capital-gains tax hikes drew strong support. The regional MSCI Asia gauge was set to snap a six-day decline, as investors digested a slew of new US tariffs. Shares rose in Hong Kong as investors looked beyond the Politburo meeting, seeking fresh catalysts amid ongoing tariff negotiations between US and China. Mainland investors also poured a record amount of money into exchange-traded funds that track the market in the Asian financial hub.
In FX, the dollar was steady after a gauge of the greenback’s strength plunged 0.9% on Friday. The Swiss franc underperforms, falling 0.5% against the greenback having only derived brief support from a larger-than-expected rise in CPI.
In rates, treasuries pared last week’s gains as traders braced for a hefty slate of bond sales this week. Yields on the 10-year notes climbed 1 basis point to 4.23% after dropping 16 basis points Friday. Gilts dip but German government bonds are steady. Treasury new-issue auctions this week begin Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $42 billion 10-year notes and $25 billion 30-year bonds Wednesday and Thursday
In commodities, WTI crude futures slide 1.3% to near $66.50 a barrel after OPEC+’s latest supply increase. Spot gold is steady near $3,360/oz.
Today’s economic data slate includes June factory orders at 10am. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Ahead this week are appearances by Cook, Daly, Bostic, Musalem and Bowman.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.7%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
Russell 2000 mini +0.9%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
DAX +1.3%
CAC 40 +0.9%
10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.24%
VIX -1.4 points at 18.99
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1210.36
euro -0.1% at $1.1571
WTI crude -1.1% at $66.62/barrel
Top Overnight News
Trump said he would remove Fed Chair Powell in a heartbeat but added that removing Powell would disturb the market, while he stated Powell will most likely stay on as Chair, and he will appoint a new Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends.
Trump said he is to announce a replacement for Fed’s Kugler in the next couple of days after the Fed announced on Friday that Governor Kugler is resigning from the Fed board effective August 8th.
Fed’s Williams said he is going into the September meeting with an open mind and that modestly restrictive policy is still needed, while he added the unusually large downward revisions in May and June payrolls were really the news in the report.
Apple is changing course and exploring in-house AI services with the goal of creating a new ChatGPT-like search experience. A team is building an “answer engine” — a system capable of crawling the web to respond to general-knowledge questions. BBG
Apple CEO Cook said he intends to win the AI race and will make the appropriate investments to do so.
Boeing defence workers are set to strike on Monday after the company’s St. Louis employees rejected the latest offer, while Boeing stated that it is prepared for a strike and has fully implemented its contingency plan: BBG
Chinese exporters are reconsidering investment in offshore factories as US tariffs on alternative hubs and new restrictions on “transshipment” force a sweeping rethink of supply chain in Asia. FT
China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters. WSJ
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday the government is ready to compile an extra budget to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs, a move that would add strain to the country’s already worsening finances. RTRS
The Swiss government is open to revising its offer to the United States in response to planned heavy tariffs, Business Minister Guy Parmelin said, as experts warned the 39% import duties announced by President Donald Trump could trigger a recession in Switzerland. RTRS
Brazil’s President Lula da Silva said he’s open to trade talks with Trump but only if his country is treated as an equal. BBG
Trump this week is set to name his replacements for the Kugler’s open seat the Fed and the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. FT
The US is “about halfway” toward restoring flows of rare earth magnets from China, USTR Jamieson Greer said. A US and Canada deal is also possible, with Trump and PM Mark Carney expected to speak soon, Canada’s trade envoy Dominic LeBlanc told CBS. BBG
Boeing workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories went on strike around midnight after union members rejected the company’s modified contract offer. BBG
A conservative think tank run by former US VP Pence is reportedly lobbying Hill offices against a push to make gambling losses 100% tax-deductible, according to Punchbowl.
Trade/Tariffs
USTR Greer said the trade truce deadline for China is still under discussion.
Canada’s trade envoy LeBlanc said PM Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump are expected to talk “over the next number of days” after a failure by their countries to reach a deal before the Aug. 1st tariff deadline, while LeBlanc plans to speak with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and still sees a chance to ease Trump tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
Canadian ministers are to discuss trade in meetings with Mexico’s President Sheinbaum and government officials, according to The Globe and Mail.
Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said they will have a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the week ahead and will clarify in the meeting how the Brazilian justice system works.
China is reportedly choking the supply of critical minerals to Western defence companies, according to WSJ.
Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the US is attempting to alter the rules and norms of global trade, while he stated that waiting for a deal in writing might have delayed a levy cut.
EU said to be awaiting US President Trump’s actions on its car tariffs and exemptions this week, according to Bloomberg.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following a quiet weekend of newsflow and last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data. ASX 200 was subdued amid underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and with weakness also seen in energy, Industrials and tech, although losses were stemmed by resilience in defensives and miners. Nikkei 225 underperformed after recent currency strength and briefly dipped back beneath the 40k level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat amid earnings and corporate updates, while the PBoC announced last week that it is to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds and promote cross-border financing facilitation, as well as strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies.
Top Asian News
China could step up monetary easing efforts in H2 2025 by cutting benchmark interest rates and banks’ RRR in order to guide overall financing costs lower and support the economy, according to Shanghai Securities News.
India’s capital markets regulator called for structural reforms to the country’s vast derivatives market, according to FT.
PBoC did not purchase or sell Chinese sovereign bonds on the open market in July; PBoC conducted CNY 1.4tln of outright reverse repos in July on the open market.
European equities (STOXX 600 +0.6%) began the week in the green (ex. SMI), and have continued to climb higher as the session progressed. The SMI (-0.6%) underperforms as it reacts to the US unexpectedly raising tariffs on Swiss goods to 39% (from 31%); as a reminder, Switzerland was on holiday last Friday. European sectors began mixed, though as the session has progressed, the picture looks more positive. Banks reside at the top and Healthcare at the bottom; the latter is hampered by heavyweight Novartis (-0.5%), given the broader pressure across Swiss stocks. Stateside, equity futures (ES +0.7%, NQ +0.8%, RTY +0.9%) have been firming throughout the morning with some modest outperformance in the RTY after closing with significant losses on Friday. Tesla (TSLA) sold 67,886 China-made vehicles in July (vs. 71,599 in June), according to China’s CPCA.
Top European News
UK’s FCA proposed a redress scheme for motor finance claims which could cost banks up to GBP 18bln, according to FT.
Germany’s engineering association VDMA said engineering orders -5% Y/Y in June (domestic -5%, foreign -5%); engineering orders -2% Y/Y in April-June (domestic -2%, foreign -1%).
FX
DXY has started the week off on the front foot but gains are very modest in comparison to the post-payrolls downside on Friday, which saw the index close lower by 1.4%. The knock-on impact to Fed pricing means that markets price an 89% chance of a 25bps cut next month and a total of 59bps of loosening by year-end. This also comes in the context of a potentially more dovish composition of the FOMC with US President Trump set to name Kugler’s replacement in the coming days. Elsewhere on the personnel front, Trump is also set to announce the replacement for the head of the BLS, whom he fired on Friday, claiming that they “faked job numbers” before the election in an attempt to help his political rivals. DXY has been unable to make its way back onto a 99 handle with a current session peak at 98.97.
EUR/USD is on the backfoot after a choppy week last week, which saw EUR slide against the USD in the wake of the EU-US trade deal before mounting a partial recovery on Friday post-payrolls. The macro narrative surrounding the EU remains as it was, and that could remain the case with little in the way of market-moving scheduled releases for the Eurozone this week. EUR/USD failed to crack 1.16 to the upside, topping out at 1.1597 and has since slipped back below its 200DMA at 1.1581 with a session low at 1.1551.
After a wild week last week, which saw an initial rally in USD/JPY (on account of broad USD strength and a dovish reaction to the BoJ policy announcement) swiftly reversed in the wake of the US NFP report, USD/JPY is attempting to clamber off the lows. USD/JPY delved as low as 147.07 overnight (vs. Friday’s 147.28 trough) but has since recovered to levels closer to 148 as the USD attempts to atone for recent losses. Overnight, comments from Japanese Trade Negotiator Akazawa stated that the recently announced trade agreement between the US and Japan is not a legally binding commitment. This has raised some doubts over how rigidly Japan will stick to its existing pledges with the US.
GBP is fractionally lower vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers from the UK on the light side. That will change on Thursday with the latest BoE policy announcement and MPR, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Within the vote split, Morgan Stanley expects a 1:7:1 outcome with Mann voting for a hold and Dhingra voting for a 50bp cut. Additionally, the desk expects unchanged messaging and an uplift to near-term inflation forecasts. Cable has returned to a 1.32 handle but is still enjoying the bulk of Friday’s gains, trading in a 1.3254-93 range.
Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD but holding onto a bulk of their post-NFP gains. AUD is slightly more resilient than NZD following a rise in the latest Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge.
Fixed Income
USTs are lower, attempting to pare back some of the post-NFP upside seen on Friday, but with focus also on the dovish implications of Fed’s Kugler resignation and Trump’s firing of the BLS Chief. On the former, it was announced that Fed’s Kugler is to resign from her role at the Fed (sparking a slight dovish reaction on Friday); thereafter, US President Trump said he will announce a replacement in the coming days. Traders will keep an eye out for the appointment, as it provides Trump the opportunity to shove in his favoured candidate to replace Powell, once his term ends. On the Trump-BLS saga; after blaming (and then firing) the BLS Chief for a poor NFP report, Trump confirmed he will be announcing a new appointee in the coming days. Price action today has been relatively contained and trades at the mid-point of a 111-31+ to 112-12 range; the peak for the day surpassed Friday’s high at 112-11, and further upside will bring into play the high from 1 July at 112-12+.
Bunds are downbeat, in-fitting with global peers. Currently trading in a 129.50 to 130.06 range, which is well within Friday’s confines of 129.12 to 130.21. Newsflow has been very light today, aside from EZ Sentix Index, which printed at -3.7, far below the expected 8.0; the Sentix director manager described the recent EU-US trade deal as a “mood killer”. Commentary over the weekend came via ECB’s Patsalides, who said that the EZ continues to remain resilient despite trade woes, though he added that “the environment remains uncertain”. On the latest ECB policy decision (where the Bank opted to keep rates steady), Patsalides said it would be “premature to interpret this decision as a pause”.
Gilts are also trading in tandem with peers, holding a bearish bias but with price action fairly muted. UK paper is currently lower by around 12 ticks in a 92.24 to 92.49 range. Newsflow has been exceptionally quiet so far, but all attention will be on Thursday’s BoE policy announcement.
Commodities
Choppy trade in the crude complex and now ultimately softer following the initial modest gap lower at the reopen in the aftermath of the OPEC+ decision on Sunday and after the NFP and ISM-induced slide on Friday. To recap, OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members will raise oil output by 547,000 bpd in September (some sources last week suggested it could be lower). The eight countries are scheduled to meet again on September 7th, where they may consider reinstating another 1.65mln bpd of cuts that are currently in place until the end of 2026, according to Reuters sources. WTI resides in a 66.56-67.62/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.90-69.88/bbl range.
Mostly softer trade across precious metals as the Dollar claws back some ground after Friday’s data-induced losses. Price action this morning has been fairly contained as the yellow metal takes a breather, with support found near its 50 DMA this morning, as spot gold resides in a USD 3,345.00-3,364.81/oz range at the time of writing.
Mixed trade across base metals amid quieter weekend newsflow and a relatively uneventful European session thus far in terms of macro impulses. Little move was seen on reports that China could step up monetary easing efforts in H2 2025 by cutting benchmark interest rates and banks’ RRR in order to guide overall financing costs lower and support the economy, according to Shanghai Securities News. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,635.10-9,696.80/t range.
OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members are to raise oil output by 548k bpd in September, citing steady global economic and current healthy market fundamentals, while it stated that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on September 7th and sources noted the group may discuss returning another layer of cuts of 1.65mln bbls which are in place until end-2026, according to Reuters.
Kuwait’s Oil Minister praised the OPEC+ decision to raise output and said the meeting reflects continued coordination among participating countries to ensure the stability of the oil market, while he added that the decision was based on a thorough analysis of market data regarding production inventories and future expectations.
Libya’s Sharara oilfield reached its highest production since 2018 at nearly 311k bpd.
Azerbaijan is to export 1.2bcm of gas to Syria each year from the BP-led Shah Deniz gas field.
China rejects US request to stop importing oil from Iran and Russia, according to Al Hadath.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Hamas said it won’t disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established. It was separately reported that Hamas’s armed wing said it is ready to respond positively and cooperate with any request from the Red Cross to deliver food to hostages in Gaza, while it added that Israel must stop aerial operations during the delivery of aid to hostages.
Jordan’s armed forces said two armed people were killed after a foiled infiltration attempt through its border with Syria.
Syrian Defence Ministry said an attack by Syrian Defence Forces in the northern city of Mamjib injured four army personnel and three civilians.
A senior official from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit Iran within the next 10 days, according to Iran International, cited by the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine
Russia’s Kremlin said, “We’re not talking about any kind of nuclear escalation”; “it’s obvious that US submarines are already on combat duty anyway”. Contacts with Witkoff are always useful and important. US mediation efforts in the Ukraine conflict are very important. Putin may meet Trump’s envoy Witkoff this week. Everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric. No desire to get into a polemic with Trump over nuclear submarines.
The Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured the village of Oleksandro Kalynove in Eastern Ukraine.
IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant heard explosions and saw smoke coming from a nearby location where the plant said one of its auxiliary facilities was attacked.
Ukraine’s military said it struck Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery again.
US President Trump said there will be sanctions if Russia does not stop the war, but added that Russia seems to be good at avoiding sanctions, while he stated that special envoy Witkoff will be going to Russia on Wednesday or Thursday.
US President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions on Friday, “just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements” from Russia’s Medvedev are more than just that.
Indian officials said they will continue to buy Russian oil despite threats of additional tariffs from US President Trump’s administration.
US Event Calendar
10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. -4.8%, prior 8.2%
10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. -9.3%, prior -9.3%
10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
10:00 am: Jun F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.7%
10:00 am: Jun F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.4%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The Extel survey opens in 11 months, if you value our…. … ok….. Too soon. Sorry. Hope you all had a nice weekend. Since we last spoke on Friday, I’ve played 5 rounds of golf as my family were on a “no Dads allowed” camping long weekend in Devon with a number of other families. My back and knees now hurt a lot but my handicap is back down to the lowest it’s ever been at 1.7, 40 years after starting the game. So there’s still life in a body that needs twos knee replacements and back fusion surgery.
Markets may need a little physio this week to get through all the things being thrown at it. August has opened with extraordinary developments, despite only one full trading day having passed. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler on Friday has created an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new board member. This individual could potentially be groomed as a successor to Chair Powell or, at the very least, represent another dovish voter. While last week’s FOMC vote was 9-2 against a rate cut, it’s worth noting that the two dissenters—Waller and Bowman—were both appointed during Trump’s first term. The significant revisions in Friday’s payroll release have also increased the likelihood that other members may reconsider their hawkish positions. The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 87% on Friday, up from around 40% before the payroll data was released, and market pricing for cuts by year-end rose from 18 basis points to 41bps.
Our economists point out that although the usual nomination and confirmation process for a Fed Governor can take months, Section 10.5 of the Federal Reserve Act allows the President to temporarily fill vacancies during Senate recesses. Such appointments would last until the next session of the Senate. With the Senate scheduled to be in recess from 4 August to 1 September, Trump could theoretically appoint a new Governor through January 2027 without going through the traditional confirmation process. However, the Senate may hold pro forma sessions during this period to block such appointments, leaving some uncertainty about how unilateral Trump’s actions could be and how long the process might take. Nonetheless, it seems likely that a dovish figure will eventually fill the vacant seat.
Adding to the upheaval, Trump dismissed Bureau of Labour Statistics head McEntarfer, accusing her of political bias following the dramatic -258,000 revisions to the previous two months’ payroll figures—the largest on record outside the pandemic. The revisions were partly attributed to a declining initial response rate to the survey, which has made early releases increasingly provisional and less reliable. On Friday, yields fell sharply, with 2-year Treasuries dropping by 27.5 basis points and 10-year Treasuries by 15.8 basis points – the largest one day fall in US 10yr yields since August 2 last year when the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% and triggered the Sahm rule. However, the replacement of both a Fed Governor and the BLS chief could ultimately impact the ease of funding the US twin deficits. This may hinder long-end rallies unless there is a significant economic slowdown. For now, though, seasonal trends in August remain supportive so it’s not recommended to lean too much against it for now. See our piece on this here from last week. Yesterday Trump said he will announce both new appointments in the coming few days. So certainly one to watch.
Looking ahead, the new 7 August trade deadline looms, with several new deals expected to take effect. This date also marks the implementation of recent trade agreements. The week also features key economic indicators from the US and Europe, trade data from China, and wage figures from Japan. A notable event will be the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday. Typically, the week following payrolls is quieter for US data, but given Friday’s shock revisions, commentary from Fed officials may prove more influential than the data itself. On Wednesday, Governor Cook and Boston’s Collins, a voting member, will participate in a panel discussion alongside a Board Member from the Central Bank of Chile. San Francisco’s Daly, a non-voter, will speak at an economic summit. On Thursday, Atlanta’s Bostic, also a non-voter, will discuss monetary policy, and on Friday, St. Louis’s Musalem, a voter, will take part in a fireside chat.
Bostic, speaking after Friday’s jobs report, expressed concern about the slowdown evident in the employment data. However, he stated that he would not have changed last week’s decision to hold rates steady and is not yet prepared to revise his projections for near-term rate cuts.
Among the US data releases that matter, Tuesday’s ISM report (forecast at 51.2 versus 50.8 previously), particularly its employment component, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims (225,000 versus 218,000) will be closely watched in light of the payroll revisions. Tuesday also brings the international trade balance (-$75 billion versus -$71.5 billion), which will include country and product-level details. These will allow for a recalculation of the average tariff rate. Our economists estimate that, as of 7 August, when country-specific rates take effect, the average tariff rate will be 19.6% on a static basis using 2024 trade weights. However, this is likely an upper bound, and after adjusting for overestimation, the more realistic average is closer to 15%. See their piece here for more on this.
Thursday’s US data also includes productivity (expected at +2.5% versus -1.5%) and unit labour costs (+1.0% versus +6.6%). In Europe, the highlight will be the Bank of England’s rate decision. Our UK chief economist expects the central bank to cut the Bank Rate to 4%, marking the fifth quarter-point reduction in the current cycle. See his preview here. Additional European data will come from trade and industrial production figures across key Eurozone economies, with Germany’s factory orders due on Wednesday. CPI prints are expected in Switzerland today and in Sweden on Thursday.
In Asia, the focus will be on China’s trade balance, due Thursday, and Japan’s wage data on Wednesday. Our economists anticipate Chinese exports to slow to 5% year-on-year in July, down from 5.8% in June. The Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday and the minutes from the June meeting tomorrow. On the earnings front, the US season has passed its peak, but notable reports are expected from Eli Lilly, Palantir, and AMD. Other S&P 500 names reporting include McDonald’s, Walt Disney, and Uber. In Europe, attention will be on Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Rheinmetall. Novo’s report on Wednesday will be particularly interesting following last week’s profit warning. In Japan, Toyota and Sony are set to report. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest energy company by market capitalisation, will release its results tomorrow.
Asian markets are mixed this morning but DM futures are higher after the difficult Friday session. The Nikkei (-1.49%) and the S&P/ASX200 (-0.11%) are lower but the Hang Seng (+0.50%) has rebounded after its worst seven-day losing streak since July 2021. In Korea, the Kospi (+1.04%) is managing to outperform as a petition to withdraw the proposed capital gains tax hike received more than 50,000 signatures, enough to trigger a standing committee review. The CSI 300 (+0.05%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) are trading higher. On the rates side, JGBs are following Friday’s global yield rally with the 10-year yield -5bps this morning. 30-year JGBs are unchanged though, after gaining +9.1bps since last Tuesday. Equity futures are higher this morning with the S&P 500 up +0.38% and the Nasdaq up +0.44%, with European futures also higher by +0.52%.
Oil prices are relatively flat after news that OPEC+ endorsed an additional 547,000 barrels per day production increase from September. A decent boost but broadly in line with expectations.
Recapping last week now, and the lead-up to the 1 August tariff deadline saw a flurry of announcements involving major US trading partners. The EU agreed to a 15% tariff on most goods and pledged $750 billion in energy imports and $600 billion in US investments. South Korea committed to a $350 billion investment fund for the US, including $150 billion for shipbuilding. Other countries faced steeper tariffs: India at 25%, Switzerland at 39%, Taiwan at 20%, and Canada’s tariffs rising from 25% to 35%. Mexico received a 90-day extension, maintaining its 25% tariff rate in the meantime.
Friday’s payroll shock sent 2-year Treasuries down 27.5 basis points (24.2bps on the week) and 10-year Treasuries down 15.8bps (17.2bps weekly). In Europe, Q2 flash GDP showed a slight improvement, with eurozone growth at +0.1% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.0% expected. German Bunds fell 3.9bps (-1.6bps Friday), French OATs dropped 3.8bps (-0.2bps Friday), and Italian BTPs declined 4.0bps (though rose 0.4bps Friday).
Equities saw notable divergence at the micro level in the heart of results season. Novo Nordisk, which began the week as Europe’s second most valuable company, plunged 30% intraday on Tuesday and ended the week down 31.7%, now ranking seventh. Semiconductor stocks were also weak, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.09% (-1.43% Friday). On the positive side, Microsoft rose 2.02% (though fell 1.76% Friday) and Meta gained 5.24% (down 3.18% Friday). Apple and Amazon underperformed, falling 5.38% and 7.21% respectively on the week. Overall, markets ended the week lower, particularly on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 2.36% (-1.60% Friday) and the Nasdaq down 2.17% (-2.24% Friday). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 declined 2.57% (-1.89% Friday), while Japanese equities followed suit, with the Nikkei falling 1.58% (-0.66% Friday).
The dollar was one of the week’s winners, with the dollar index climbing +1.52% (though down 0.84% Friday), marking its longest winning streak since February. The euro weakened by 1.32% over the week but rebounded 1.51% on Friday following the US developments.
2b European opening report
2c) Asian opening report
Weekend newsflow quiet & light calendar ahead; OPEC+ agree to increase output by 548k BPD as expected – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 01:10 AM
APAC stocks traded mixed following a quiet weekend of newsflow and last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data.
US President Trump said on Sunday that he will announce a new head of BLS in the next three or four days.
US President Trump said he is to announce a replacement for Fed’s Kugler in the next couple of days after Kugler resigned on Friday.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.4% after the cash market suffered losses of 2.9% on Friday.
DXY is a touch firmer after Friday’s selling pressure, EUR/USD ran out of steam ahead of 1.16, USD/JPY trades on a 147 handle.
Crude slightly lower after OPEC+ agreed to increase oil output by 548k BPD in September.
Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Jul), EZ Sentix Index Aug), US Employment Trends (Jun), Durable Goods R (Jun) & Factory Orders.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks declined amid a risk-off session on Friday in response to the woeful US jobs report but also as Trump implemented sweeping tariffs, whereby the overall tariffs raised the average US tariff rate to 15.2% from 13.3%, and up from 2.3% before Trump took office. The NFP report came in beneath expectations but the highlight was the two month net revisions of -258k, bringing the 3 month average to just 35k from the prior 150k, seeing traders boost Fed rate cut bets with September now priced at around 90% vs sub-50% pre-data, while equities had also faced pressure from the downside in Amazon (AMZN) after earnings too.
SPX -1.65% at 6,235, NDX -1.96% at 22,763, DJI -1.24% at 43,586, RUT -2.08% at 2,166.
USTR Greer said the trade truce deadline for China is still under discussion.
Canada’s trade envoy LeBlanc said PM Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump are expected to talk “over the next number of days” after a failure by their countries to reach a deal before the Aug. 1st tariff deadline, while LeBlanc plans to speak with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and still sees a chance to ease Trump tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
Canadian ministers are to discuss trade in meetings with Mexico’s President Sheinbaum and government officials, according to The Globe and Mail.
Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said they will have a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the week ahead and will clarify in the meeting how the Brazilian justice system works.
China is reportedly choking the supply of critical minerals to Western defence companies, according to WSJ.
Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the US is attempting to alter the rules and norms of global trade, while he stated that waiting for a deal in writing might have delayed a levy cut.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump said he would remove Fed Chair Powell in a heartbeat but added that removing Powell would disturb the market, while he stated Powell will most likely stay on as Chair and he will appoint a new Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends.
US President Trump said he is to announce a replacement for Fed’s Kugler in the next couple of days after the Fed announced on Friday that Governor Kugler is resigning from the Fed board effective August 8th.
US President Trump said on Friday that he was informed the US jobs numbers are being produced by a Biden appointee who faked job numbers before the election to try to boost Kamala Harris’s chances of victory, and he directed his team to fire her immediately. Furthermore, Trump said on Sunday that he will announce a new head of BLS in the next three or four days, while he also commented that there could be a dividend or distribution of money to Americans from tariff revenues.
Fed’s Williams said he is going into the September meeting with an open mind and that modestly restrictive policy is still needed, while he added the unusually large downward revisions in May and June payrolls were really the news in the report.
Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook said he intends to win the AI race and will make the appropriate investments to do so.
Boeing (BA) defence workers are set to strike on Monday after the Co.’s St. Louis employees rejected the latest offer, while Boeing stated that it is prepared for a strike and has fully implemented its contingency plan.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed following a quiet weekend of newsflow and last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data.
ASX 200 was subdued amid underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and with weakness also seen in energy, Industrials and tech, although losses were stemmed by resilience in defensives and miners.
Nikkei 225 underperformed after recent currency strength and briefly dipped back beneath the 40k level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat amid earnings and corporate updates, while the PBoC announced last week that it is to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds and promote cross-border financing facilitation, as well as strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies.
US equity futures (ES 0.3%, NQ +0.3%) got some slight reprieve following last Friday’s data, tariff and earnings-facilitated sell-off.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.4% after the cash market suffered losses of 2.9% on Friday.
FX
DXY regained some composure after retreating on Friday owing to the weak Non Farm Payrolls report which printed below estimates and was accompanied by hefty downward two-month net revision. The disappointing data led to a boost in Fed rate cut bets with money markets currently pricing in around a 90% probability of a cut at next month’s FOMC meeting vs below 50% prior to the data, while President Trump also fired the head of the BLS who he claimed had “RIGGED” jobs figures to make him and Republicans look bad.
EUR/USD took a breather after Friday’s spike higher and after hitting some resistance just shy of the 1.1600 handle.
GBP/USD traded little changed in the absence of pertinent catalysts for the UK over the weekend and languished in relatively close proximity for a retest of the 1.3300 level to the upside.
USD/JPY attempted to nurse losses after collapsing on Friday from above 150.00 to sub-148.00 territory in the aftermath of the US jobs data but with the rebound limited amid the downbeat mood in Tokyo and with a lack of tier-1 releases from Japan at the start of the week.
Antipodeans held on their post-NFP spoils with slight tailwinds in AUD/USD following a rise in the latest MI Inflation Gauge.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures slightly pulled back after rallying on the dismal US jobs report on Friday which resulted in money markets pricing around a 90% likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting in September.
Bund futures held on to the post-NFP spoils but with upside capped after failing to sustain the 130.00 status.
10yr JGB futures followed suit to last Friday’s gains in global peers amid the negative mood in Tokyo, although JGBs are off today’s peak after hitting some resistance during a brief test of the 139.00 level.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were mildly lower with pressure seen at the open following the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to raise output by 547k bpd for September and with OPEC+ 8 to meet next on September 7th, where they could discuss returning another layer of output cuts of 1.65mln bbls. Nonetheless, prices are off their lows as the latest output increase was relatively in line with expectations, while Goldman Sachs maintained its 2026 Brent crude forecast and sees OPEC+ pausing future hikes amid rising OECD stockpiles.
OPEC+ said in a statement that eight members are to raise oil output by 547k bpd in September, citing steady global economic and current healthy market fundamentals, while it stated that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on September 7th and sources noted the group may discuss returning another layer of cuts of 1.65mln bbls which are in place until end-2026, according to Reuters.
Kuwait’s Oil Minister praised the OPEC+ decision to raise output and said the meeting reflects continued coordination among participating countries to ensure the stability of the oil market, while he added that the decision was based on thorough analysis of market data regarding production inventories and future expectations.
Libya’s Sharara oilfield reached its highest production since 2018 at nearly 311k bpd.
Azerbaijan is to export 1.2bcm of gas to Syria each year from BP-led Shah Deniz gas field.
Spot gold marginally eased back after Friday’s data-triggered surge and as the dollar regained poise.
Copper futures were lacklustre with demand contained alongside the mixed risk appetite in Asia-Pac.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin gained overnight and briefly tested the 115k level to the upside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
India’s capital markets regulator called for structural reforms to the country’s vast derivatives market, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge MM (Jul) 0.9% (Prev. 0.1%)
Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge YY (Jul) 2.9% (Prev. 2.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Hamas said it won’t disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established. It was separately reported that Hamas’s armed wing said it is ready to respond positively and cooperate with any request from the Red Cross to deliver food to hostages in Gaza, while it added that Israel must stop aerial operations during the delivery of aid to hostages.
Jordan’s armed forces said two armed people were killed after a foiled infiltration attempt through its border with Syria.
Syrian Defence Ministry said an attack by Syrian Defence Forces in the northern city of Mamjib injured four army personnel and three civilians.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured the village of Oleksandro Kalynove in Eastern Ukraine.
IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant heard explosions and saw smoke coming from a nearby location where the plant said one of its auxiliary facilities was attacked.
Ukraine’s military said it struck Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery again.
US President Trump said there will be sanctions if Russia does not stop the war, but added that Russia seems to be good at avoiding sanctions, while he stated that special envoy Witkoff will be going to Russia on Wednesday or Thursday.
US President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions on Friday, “just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements” from Russia’s Medvedev are more than just that.
Indian officials said they will continue to buy Russian oil despite threats of additional tariffs from US President Trump’s administration.
OTHER
Russia-China navy exercises began in the Sea of Japan, according to TASS.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK’s FCA proposed a redress scheme for motor finance claims which could cost banks up to GBP 18bln, according to FT.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/ USA
US Deploys F-16 “Super Squadron” Closer To North Korea Border After Kim’s Ultimatum
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 10:30 AM
The United States is expanding its military footprint on the Korean Peninsula by establishing another elite air unit near the demilitarized zone, which is apparently in response to Pyongyang’s last week announcement that it will only enter negotiations if the US abandons its demand for denuclearization.
The Department of Defense confirmed the US recently transferred 31 F-16 fighter jets from Kunsan Air Base to Osan Air Base, with a purpose to “consolidate air power and enhance combat readiness” in the region.
The Pentagon indicated this marks the second such “super squadron” the US has stationed in South Korea. Osan lies several dozen miles north of Kunsan, closer to the demilitarized zone with North Korea, and so the Kim Jong Un government will no doubt see this as a serious provocation.
Lt. Gen. David. R. Iverson, head of the Seventh Air Force and US Forces Korea deputy commander, has described this change as “an opportunity for us to see if squadrons of this size increase our training effectiveness while also increasing our combat capability if deterrence fails.”
Now the Air Force is initiating phase two of the tests, with the creation of a brand new super squadron at Osan. Alongside the 31 planes, roughly 1,000 airmen from the 8th Fighter Wing at Kunsan will transfer to the northern air base as part of this build up. The Air Force described the second phase as a “temporary” shift. The second super squadron is expected to be operational by October, and the second phase will last through October 2026.
North Korea has meanwhile insisted that any future dialogue with the US remains off the table unless Washington recognizes its status as a nuclear-armed nation.
Days ago, Kim Yo-jong, who is the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and a senior official in the country’s ruling Workers Party, stated that “Any attempt to deny the position of the DPRK as a nuclear weapons state, which was established along with the existence of a powerful nuclear deterrent and fixed by the supreme law reflecting the unanimous will of all the DPRK people, will be thoroughly rejected.”
“The DPRK is open to any option in defending its present national position,” she had added. It is by “no means beneficial” for the US and North Korea to be in confrontation, so the Trump administration should “seek another way of contact on the basis of such new thinking.”
Still, even as the Pentagon is conducing a provocative force posture shift with the movement of its jet squadron, Seoul is taking steps to defuse tensions by dismantling propaganda speakers at the border:
South Korean authorities began removing loudspeakers blaring anti-North Korea broadcasts along the country’s border, Seoul’s Ministry of National Defense has said, as the new government of President Lee Jae-myung seeks to ease tensions with Pyongyang.
“Starting today, the military has begun removing the loudspeakers,” Lee Kyung-ho, spokesman of South Korea’s Defence Ministry, told reporters on Monday.
While Pyongyang has in the past reciprocated ‘good-faith’ actions like this, the continued large presence of American forces on the peninsula will remain a big problem – also given the fact that in recent years the US has docked nuclear-powered submarines at South Korean ports at various times.
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA/
4D EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
“Everyone Should Leave The EU” – AfD Head Weidel Blasts “Openly Corrupt” Brussels
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, says Germany is digging its own grave. Her words came during an interview Weidel gave to Hungary’s Patriot Extra program, covered by Mandiner.
According to the nationalist politician, the European Union has “completely degenerated,” does not represent nation states or sovereign peoples, and has now become a machine run by overpaid bureaucrats that only causes harm.
Weidel says Germany’s economic decline is rooted in domestic decisions. High energy prices, the green transition, and the phase-out of nuclear power have made German industry uncompetitive, especially the automotive industry, which she says is being deliberately destroyed by Brussels regulations.
“All the bad rules were made in Brussels,” she said, emphasizing that the ban on internal combustion engines and environmental sanctions benefit China and American companies, not European workers. According to Weidel, Germany and Europe need a free market where everyone can produce and buy what they want.
Weidel also said the German government was playing politics against the population, lying to people, and doing the opposite of what it promised.
On Angela Merkel, the AfD leader said that she was “the first Green Chancellor, not the conservative leader of the CDU.” She also called current Chancellor Friedrich Merz a representative of the “losing side.”
Weidel contrasted Germany with Hungary, praising Viktor Orbán for his “common sense” and as a role model for national sovereignists. “I can only congratulate Viktor Orbán, Hungary is doing much better,” she said.
“Hungary is the only one that clearly stands out and says: this cannot be done with us,” she said. According to Weidel, in Germany, on the other hand, there is an unstable government that is deliberately worsening the financial situation of the population in order to make people vulnerable.
Weidel further stated that she believes Hungarians live relatively better than Germans, compared to the country’s economic performance.
According to Weidel, “Everyone should leave the EU.”
Weidel claimed Brussels is trying to build an “artificially created political product” against Viktor Orbán in the person of opposition leader Péter Magyar to interfere in Hungary’s internal affairs. However, Péter Magyar, supported by green and woke politicians and whom Ursula von der Leyen is feeding from the palm of his hand, is doomed to failure, she said, stating that Orbán will emerge from this fight stronger.
She sees similar interventions from Brussels in Romania and Germany, where the AfD is openly persecuted and even faces a potential ban.
Weidel was particularly critical of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whom she called “openly corrupt,” specifically commenting on the SMS agreements made for Pfizer vaccine purchases during Covid.
“I wonder where the commissions went?” she asked, adding that Von der Leyen and the Brussels elite were “only working to line their own pockets” and that the EU’s institutional system could not be reformed but must be completely rebuilt.
In the interview, Weidel outlined what reforms an AfD government would introduce: immediate border closure and mass deportations; social benefits reform, i.e., only those who have paid into the system would receive support; tax cuts for workers; the return of nuclear energy and cheap energy sources; lifting the ban on internal combustion engines; radical reduction of bureaucracy.
“The whole Brussels superstructure is impoverishing us all,” she stressed, adding that the German people are increasingly angry because instead of a “brave new world,” they have been given a more expensive, poorer, and more vulnerable life.
Weidel said Germany should return to the ideal of a strong, independent middle class, which Hungary represents in Europe today.
According to Weidel, the European elections and the processes in Germany also show that people are fed up with globalist, centralized power. He believes that the restoration of national sovereignty, a strong middle class, and the free market are inevitable, even in the face of Brussels.
“The question is whether Germany can still change or will it be completely absorbed by the Brussels deep state,” she told viewers.
While we admit European equities have been a great trade (and somewhat of a love story for us), we do struggle to see it as a structural story. History shows Europe can beat the US — but it rarely lasts more than a quarter or two. There are many worrying datapoints that would support that Europe’s had its quarter in the sun — but that there is no structural sunrise.
Is it over…?
The German stock market’s brief comeback appears to be over – at least for now. The surge in US big tech stocks, the underperformance of German equities, and a weakening Euro have pushed Germany’s share of global stock market capitalization down to 2.2%, from 2.4% in May.
Source: Holger Zschäpitz
Triple whammy
The 2025 German budget plans for lower revenues, higher expenditures and a higher deficit than 2024.
Source: Haver
911 dialing 911
Porsche used to have an operating profit of about €2 Billion per quarter. Now it’s €245 Million. If even the most iconic German carmaker struggles, just imagine the future for the rest of them. With the powerful unions, German carmakers won’t be able to cut costs fast enough.
Source: Bloomberg
Germany has become a net importer of electricity
Germany has become a net importer of electricity after shutting down all of its nuclear power plants. So far this year, Germany has imported more electricity than it exported on 148 out of 203 days – that’s 73% of the time. For comparison: in 2017 it was just 5 days.
Source: Holger Zschäpitz
Vanished
YTD lead of European stocks (in Eur) vs. US has essentially vanished.
Source: Barclays
Europe being Europe
Europe vs. US trade is a one way street since late spring.
Source: Bloomberg
Worse
FY25 EPS revisions in Europe are trending somewhat worse than that of a typical year.
Source: Barclays
Q2 worse
2Q-25 earnings surprise so far is weaker than in recent earnings seasons.
Source: FactSet
I’m tired of losers
Europe saw the largest ever negative relative stock price reaction to Stoxx600 companies negative EPS surprises.
Source: FactSet
US > Europe
US earnings continue to deliver better than Europe.
Source: JPM Equity strategy
EZ revisions remain negative
EZ revisions remain negative during Q2 reports, sentiment suggests closer to neutral?
Source: Macrobond
Large de-risking
Hedge funds seem to have gotten tired….European gross and net down to 32nd percentile and 23rd percentile respectively (5-year look-back).
Source: Morgan Stanley
END
The Bureaucratic Tumor Killing Europe
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 02:45 AM
By Thomas Kolbe
Bureaucracy is flourishing in Germany and the EU like never before. Budget planning in Berlin and Brussels offers a clear glimpse into the state of the public sector—and at the same time, points toward the end of the economic cycle.
A saying is making the rounds on social media that captures the European relationship with the state: Europeans love to be governed so much, they’ve even installed a government for their governments in Brussels. It’s a reference to the European Union’s bureaucracy—a sprawling administrative apparatus that is gradually disempowering national governments and shifting the burdens of centralization onto the citizenry.
The latest example: a ruling by the European Court of Justice that weakens the definition of a “safe country of origin,” effectively removing any effective legal instrument EU states might use to stop the overwhelming wave of illegal migration.
Brussels’ ideological stubbornness and institutional detachment from reality are part of a relentless drive to subject ever-larger parts of European society to regulatory control. It’s as if an illegitimate stepchild has embedded itself into the family and is now trying to rob the rightful heirs of their inheritance.
The Mega-Budget of Madness
Case in point: the EU Commission recently unveiled its new seven-year budget, now inflated to a whopping €1.8 trillion—a runaway bureaucracy at a time when European economies are suffering a severe productivity crisis and member states are gasping for fiscal air.
Brussels is living proof that bureaucratic structures develop a life of their own from day one. Like all social organisms, they strive for growth, bigger budgets, and expanding regulation as a way of entrenching their power base. Their activity continues even as the host society weakens—until the host’s growth forces collapse entirely.
Argentina clearly reached that point two years ago, when libertarian Javier Milei was handed a literal chainsaw to hack through the jungle of regulations, bureaucracy, and senseless state interference. The result: an economic euphoria that remains completely alien to Germany. Here, bureaucracy continues to bloom in full.
Crushing Bureaucratic Burdens
German businesses groan under a bureaucratic burden that grows year after year. According to calculations by the Ifo Institute, bureaucratism costs the German economy €146 billion annually—wasted just to meet government documentation, compliance, and control mandates.
It’s an economic catastrophe, prescribed by the state to secure its own power. We are deep in the age of bureaucratic overkill.
No craftsman, no mid-sized entrepreneur can survive today without a dedicated admin department or pricey consultants—just to submit the next batch of paperwork or satisfy a new reporting obligation. Millions of working hours—hours that should serve innovation, productivity, and actual labor—are simply incinerated.
In what was once the land of inventors and visionaries, the biggest brake on growth—besides crushing taxes—is the regulatory jungle of forms and mandates. It’s a damning indictment of politics, whose will to control has exceeded all reasonable limits.
Against this backdrop, the Merz government’s bureaucratic-reduction promises are nothing short of an insult to those forced to endure the madness.
America Shows Another Way
But it doesn’t have to be this way. The U.S. is currently showing a radically different path. With the launch of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), AI is being deployed across the board. Its goal: to scrap roughly 100,000 federal regulations—about half of all existing ones—deemed unconstitutional or redundant.
At the heart of this push is the “DOGE AI Deregulation Decision Tool,” which may soon become the global standard for deregulation.
The U.S. government estimates annual savings of up to €1.3 trillion (~$1.5 trillion)—primarily through lower compliance costs for businesses and slashed administrative payrolls. AI is already being used at agencies like the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), where in just two weeks, 1,000 regulations were reviewed and marked for deletion.
The End of the Cycle
Reform is possible—but it demands a long runway. The political will for it must rise from deep societal crisis, build over time, and then strike suddenly to break the bureaucratic fortress.
Bureaucracies evolve in parallel with the society and economy that host them. Everything obeys the laws of growth, maturity, and decay. The question is: where does Germany stand in this cycle when we examine the structure and growth dynamic of its public administration?
Surely, it’s a long way from here to the Milei chainsaw. The end of that path involves severe economic and social turbulence.
Just look at Argentina: two currency collapses, hyperinflation, welfare-state implosion, and economic paralysis—the typical symptoms of a society in collapse.
At that point, political arguments about “more regulation” go silent. People begin to recognize the bureaucratic plunder for what it is. The media can no longer cover up economic reality. It’s the moment when society demands that those who’ve benefited from the labor of others finally pay the price—those who hid from life’s risks in government offices.
At that stage, redundant agencies are shuttered, civil service rights suspended, pensions slashed. In short, the state-private sector relationship is recalibrated.
Signs and Symptoms
So where does Germany currently stand?
The signs are everywhere. From the absurd climate-panic regulations emerged the biggest subsidy machine in European history. Between 2028 and 2034, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to pump €750 billion into this monster of capital destruction.
Hundreds of NGOs feed off this machine, inflating their own activity levels to secure budgets and influence. Think of climate protestors gluing themselves to roads, Extinction Rebellion, Fridays for Future—the pathological symptoms of a psychologically wounded society that has lost touch with its own values.
At the end of the economic cycle, Germany appears to have exhausted its integrative and stabilizing capacities—and is now stumbling through a process of economic and social disintegration.
German society—and much of Europe—finds it hard to activate the forces of self-healing. Internal conflict seems inevitable. The collapse of the climate narrative is only a matter of time, likely triggered by a United States that peels off its green-socialist mask and returns to its foundational ideals.
As bureaucratization reaches its end stage, the Kafkaesque degeneracy is impossible to ignore. Vast swaths of streets blocked off for cyclists, causing more emissions and fine dust due to induced traffic jams. Urban “green meeting points” in the middle of major roads. Gender-garbled language. Non-binary toilets. This is the grotesque overgrowth of an unhinged bureaucracy intoxicated by ideology.
Visible Decay
These often bizarre bureaucratic mutations point to Germany having entered a late stage of societal and economic decline. Crisis, catharsis, and reorientation are inevitable. The collapse of the economy is already so advanced that even left-wing state-socialists struggle to obscure it with climate hysteria or fairytales of a coming green utopia.
History moves in waves. Bureaucratism eats away at the private sector until it can no longer bear the metastasizing state. When the private sector collapses—as we now visibly see in Germany’s decaying public spaces and dismal economic data—the pressure on the political system intensifies.
At a Crossroads
Society then approaches a fork in the road. One path leads to total collectivism, as seen in the 20th century. The other returns to a bourgeois society grounded in free markets, family, and a lean state.
As Europe’s nations contemplate their future, the fog is lifting in Brussels. The political class has abandoned fiscal consolidation and now bets everything on debt acceleration. The question is no longer if there will be another sovereign debt crisis—but who will trigger it.
Right now, France looks poised to pull the plug on Brussels’ imperial ambitions. With a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 114% and a state share of 57%, it is trapped in its own fiscal nightmare. Political gridlock remains unresolved.
It will likely be Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National who, within two years, break the deadlock and send shockwaves through Europe by pivoting away from Brussels.
Whatever happens, every national government in the EU would be wise to have a Plan B when the reckoning in Brussels arrives.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist who has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
END
GERMANY
German Military Sees 28% Surge In Recruits As Leaders Hype Russia Threat
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Germany’s historic reversal on its military posture and stregnth has long been on display since near the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Berlin has been drastically expanding its military spending and is even recently mulling compulsory service for the nation’s armed forces.
But even without this more dramatic action, the reality is that interest in joining the German Armed Forces has grown significantly, with military recruitment up 28% so far in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to new Defence Ministry information published Thursday.
By July 21, approximately 13,750 new recruits had joined the Bundeswehr, the defense miinistry said – which has involved fixed-term service contracts and voluntary military service.
This has apparently been an increasingly attractive route for young people after finishing school. Currently, the Bundeswehr has around 183,100 active personnel, which is an increase of about 2,000 compared to last year.
Voluntary service participation has also climbed by roughly 15%, reaching 11,350 recruits. While these numbers pale in comparison to the much larger militaries of the US, Russia, or even Ukraine – it marks the start of what could be a historic shift after the German military’s post-WWII effective decimation.
The Defence Ministry credits the increase to focused recruitment efforts on growing concerns about global security, and of course the percieved threat to Europe by Russia as a result of the still raging Ukraine war which is not far away geographically.
The Kremlin has consistently denied allegations that President Putin has his eyes set on invading Europe or even a NATO ‘eastern flank’ country.
German officials have voiced their view that the rise in enlistment encouraging, particularly given the urgent need to expand the military’s ranks. Later this month Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Cabinet is expected to vote on a draft bill to reform military service.
All of this also of course makes NATO leadership happy, and is in the context of President Trump’s serious push to get European members of the alliance to shoulder more of the common defense burden.
If passed, the changes could come into effect in early 2026, prioritizing voluntary enlistment and improved conditions, featuring for example better pay – with the aim of attracting up to 15,000 new conscripts annually, according to German media.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IDF destroys over 130 Hamas targets in weekend operations in Gaza
Additionally, an airstrike on July 24, 2025, in the central Gaza Strip killed Salah al-Din Za‘atra, deputy commander of Hamas’s al-Furqan Battalion.
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, August 2, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 2, 2025 20:53Updated: AUGUST 2, 2025 20:54
The IDF‘s ground and air units struck more than 130 Hamas positions over the weekend in northern, central, and southern Gaza, killing a senior Hamas field commander and dismantling extensive underground infrastructure, the military announced on Saturday.
Additionally, an airstrike on July 24, 2025, in the central Gaza Strip killed Salah al-Din Za‘atra, deputy commander of Hamas’s al-Furqan Battalion. Military officials said Za‘atra had supervised combat-support operations and planned attacks on Israeli civilians and soldiers.
Intense action was reported first in northern and central Gaza, where troops of the 99th Division’s Nahal Brigade uncovered several tunnel shafts and used tank fire to kill multiple gunmen.
A few kilometres to the north, reconnaissance teams from the 401st Brigade of the 162nd Division observed four Hamas fighters moving toward IDF lines and directed an aircraft that struck and killed them moments later.
Fighting also flared in the south. There, troops belonging to the Gaza Division (143rd) and the 36th Division methodically demolished tunnels as well as buildings that, the army said, served as rocket storehouses.
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, August 2, 2025. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Several additional assailants were killed in close-quarters engagements as troops advanced through densely built neighbourhoods.
IDF operations in cooperation with Shin Bet
Operations over the weekend, the IDF added, were conducted on the basis of real-time intelligence supplied by the IDF Intelligence Directorate and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet).
Commanders said their forces “continue to degrade Hamas’s military capabilities” and have widened searches for tunnel networks believed to stretch beneath residential areas.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Witkoff: GHF visit to allow Trump to craft a food, aid delivery plan to the people of Gaza
The visit follows Witkoff’s arrival in Israel on Thursday and meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have stalled.
US Ambassador Mike Huckabee and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff visit the US-launched Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s aid site in Rafah, southern Gaza, August 1, 2025.(photo credit: SCREENSHOT/X)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 1, 2025 10:10Updated: AUGUST 1, 2025 16:53
“At President Trump’s direction, Ambassador Mike Huckabee and I met yesterday with Israeli officials to discuss the humanitarian situation in Gaza,” US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said, as he visited the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) aid distribution site in Rafah on Friday morning.
“Today, we spent over five hours inside Gaza — level setting the facts on the ground, assessing conditions, and meeting with the GHF and other agencies. The purpose of the visit was to give Trump a clear understanding of the humanitarian situation and help craft a plan to deliver food and medical aid to the people of Gaza.”
The visit follows Witkoff’s arrival in Israel on Thursday and meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have stalled.
Huckabee later wrote that he went to Gaza and observed the humanitarian food program by the US-launched GHF.
“Hamas hates GHF b/c it gets food to ppl w/o it being looted by Hamas.”
“Over 100 MILLION meals served in 2 months,” Huckabee wrote.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff arrives in Rafah in the Gaza Strip to visit the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) aid site, August 1, 2025. (credit: SCREENSHOT/X/VIA SECTION 27A OF THE COPYRIGHT ACT)
Both countries agreed that a shift in negotiation tactics and framework is needed due to Hamas‘s unwillingness to compromise, an Israeli senior official told The Jerusalem Post after the meeting.
Topics discussed during the meeting are believed to have included the Gaza ceasefire talks, returning hostages from Hamas captivity, and Iran.
Witkoff’s visit comes as Israeli officials warn that if there is no progress in the coming days on a deal to release the hostages, Israel may be forced to take further action on the ground in Gaza.
Donald Trump to boost US aid efforts
US President Donald Trump told Axios on Friday morning that he’s working on a plan to feed civilians in Gaza, but did not go into further details of it.
“We want to help people. We want to help them live. We want to get people fed. It is something that should have happened a long time ago,” the US leader told the news source.
Trump added that he blamed Hamas for stealing and then selling aid that entered the Strip, according to Axios.
Trump earlier said that he disagreed with Netanyahu, “that there is no hunger in Gaza because they look very hungry.”
Trump, speaking to reporters at his golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, as he welcomed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said people in Gaza needed to get food and safety right now, and he would discuss the situation with Starmer.
“There are people who are hungry in Gaza – we are helping them, but other countries need to help as well,” he continued.
Additionally, US officials told CNN that Trump viewed footage of starving children and Gaza and told his aides that he wished to speak with Netanyahu on the matter. Seeing the suffering of children captured in photos motivated Trump to boost US aid efforts.
First Lady Melania Trump was also disturbed by the images and played a “key role” in Trump’s rhetoric shift, the officials added.
Israel and the US will also work to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza while continuing military operations within the area, including reintroducing its efforts to airdrop aid to civilians within Gaza in order to prevent theft.
The United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt have all been confirmed to be cooperating in the aid packages that are being dropped, according to the IDF.
“We secured the skies, secured the drops, and made sure the food got through,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated in a post on X/Twitter on Wednesday. “Any country that truly wants to help is welcome to join us.”
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL /SETTLERS/JERUSALEM
In First, Ben Gvir Leads Settler Raid On Al-Aqsa Mosque Under Heavy Guard
Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir led hundreds of settlers in storming Al-Aqsa Mosque complex on Sunday, were they loudly performed Jewish Talmudic prayer, under a heavy police guard, and attempted to antagonise Muslim worshippers.
Videos seen by Middle East Eye showed hundreds of settlers storming the courtyards of Al-Aqsa Mosque where some could be seen dancing and shouting, seeking to disrupt the Muslim place of worship.
The status quo in Jerusalem has long maintained that Jewish prayer is forbidden on the raised plateau in occupied East Jerusalem’s Old City, where Al-Aqsa Mosque stands.
However, over the past century, Zionist groups have repeatedly violated the fragile arrangement, launching unprecedented attacks on what’s considered one of Islam’s holiest sites.
Residents in Jerusalem’s Old City told MEE that before and after Ben Gvir’s raid, the area had come to resemble a “military base” due to the “many checkpoints” that had been set up and the “heavy Israeli security presence”.
They said that Israeli forces severely restricted Palestinians from accessing the mosque, with only a few local residents allowed to pass. Speaking to reporters after the raid, Ben Gvir said: “The Temple Mount is for the Jews, and we will remain here forever.”
Since becoming a minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, Ben Gvir has led at least 11 assaults on the mosque. Meanwhile, several other far-right politicians have advocated for the destruction of Al-Aqsa and the construction of a temple where they claim Jewish temples once stood.
Among the hundreds of people to take part in Sunday’s raid was right-wing Likud lawmaker Amit Halevi, who has repeatedly advocated for Israel to destroy all water, food and energy sources in Gaza.
In June 2023, he tabled a bill that would divide Al-Aqsa Mosque between Muslims and Jews, a plan that would see shared access from the courtyard of the Dome of the Rock to the end of the northern border of Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Palestinians fear that the incursions at Al-Aqsa, which have intensified since Israel went to war on Gaza in October 2023, are laying the groundwork for the mosque to be divided similar to how the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron was in the 1990s.
Muslims currently have limited access to that site, and just last month, Israel transferred the authority of the mosque from the Palestinian-run Hebron municipality to a settler council.
Aouni Bazbaz, the director of international affairs at the Islamic Waqf, the organisation that administers Al-Aqsa Mosque, described Sunday’s raid as “painful and regrettable”, telling MEE that it was a threat to the “historical status quo and an incitement to violence”.
“There were terrifying numbers of people [Israeli settlers] present and some were important figures,” he said. “This was part of a project. The extreme religious right seeks to undermine the status quo and to clearly follow the example of the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron.
“There are no worshippers here right now, the place is empty, the Old City is empty. It’s a military barracks,” he added.
The Jerusalem Governorate also decried the raid, and appealed to the international community, in particular Muslim states, “to take immediate action”.
Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir sparked fresh outrage today after performing Talmudic rituals inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, accompanied by an associate who carried out the “epic prostration”, a form of Jewish worship explicitly prohibited at the site pic.twitter.com/pv3aKSaJvc
“What happened today is not just a traditional incursion. Rather, it represents a pivotal stage aimed at forcibly imposing Jewish sovereignty over Al-Aqsa Mosque and dividing it spatially between Muslims and settlers, after the occupation authorities have persisted in imposing a temporal division over the past years,” it said.
“The Jerusalem Governorate considers this escalation to be a declaration of religious war against Islamic and Christian holy sites and a prelude to a comprehensive explosion whose flames could spread beyond the borders of Palestine, threatening security and stability in the region and the world,” it added.
The Jordanian foreign ministry also strongly condemned the raid, calling it “an unacceptable provocation and an indecent escalation”.
“The repeated entries of extremist settlers into Al-Aqsa Mosque constitute a serious violation of the existing historical and legal situation, an attempt to impose a division in time and space, and a desecration of the sanctity of the place,” the Jordanian foreign ministry spokesman, Ambassador Sufyan al-Qudah, said.
END
ISRAEL VS USA/STATES
Trump admin. to withhold disaster funding for states, cities who boycott Israel
The condition applies to at least $1.9 billion that states rely on to cover search and rescue equipment, emergency manager salaries, and backup power systems, among other expenses.
Acting Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) David Richardson testifies before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing on improving disaster response, on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 23, 2025; illustrative.(photo credit: REUTERS/JONATHAN ERNST)ByREUTERSAUGUST 4, 2025 17:46Updated: AUGUST 4, 2025 17:51
The Trump administration said states and cities will not receive funding to prepare for natural disasters if they choose to boycott Israeli companies, according to an agency statement.
States must certify that they will not cut off “commercial relations specifically with Israeli companies” to receive the money from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, according to the agency’s terms for grantees.
The condition applies to at least $1.9 billion that states rely on to cover search and rescue equipment, emergency manager salaries, and backup power systems, among other expenses, according to 11 agency grant notices reviewed by Reuters.
JPost Videos
It is the latest example of the Trump administration making use of routine federal funding to advance its political message at the state level.
FEMA said in July that US states will be required to spend part of their federal terrorism prevention funds on helping the government arrest migrants, an administration priority.
An anti-Israel protester holds a banner calling for boycott, divestment, and sanctions against Israel; illustrative. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)
The Israel requirement takes aim at the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement. The campaign’s supporters grew more vocal in 2023, after Hamas attacked southern Israel and Israel invaded Gaza in response.
“DHS will enforce all anti-discrimination laws and policies, including as it relates to the BDS movement, which is expressly grounded in antisemitism,” a spokesperson for Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said in a statement.
At least 34 states already have anti-BDS laws or policies
The requirement is largely symbolic. At least 34 states already have anti-BDS laws or policies, according to a University of Pennsylvania law journal.
FEMA will require major cities to agree to the Israel policy to receive a cut of $553.5 million set aside to prevent terrorism in dense areas, according to a grant notice posted Friday.
New York City is slated to receive $92.2 million from the program, the most of all the recipients. Allocations are based on the agency’s analysis of “relative risk of terrorism,” according to the notice.
ISRAEL GAZA
‘A fake narrative’: Footage of ‘bustling’ Gaza markets counter Hamas starvation claims
While asserting “aid is flowing in, by land and by air every day,” COGAT asserted that “Hamas is pushing a fake famine narrative” while stealing the aid and selling it at a large mark-up.
Al-Sahaba market in the Gaza Strip, July 28, 2025.(photo credit: TPS-IL)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 4, 2025 17:50Updated: AUGUST 4, 2025 17:51
The Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) shared footage on Monday of “bustling markets” with large quantities of food to counter Hamas’s accusations that Israel is deliberately causing a famine in the Gaza Strip.
The footage shows fresh produce being sold, along with pastry shops being open.
While asserting “aid is flowing in, by land and by air every day,” COGAT asserted that “Hamas is pushing a fake famine narrative” while stealing the aid and selling it at a large mark-up.
“Bitter truth: Hamas is starving its own people. They steal the food, hoard the aid, and sell it at sky-high prices,” COGAT accused. “The food is there. The aid is there. Hamas just keeps it from those who need it most.”
The food is there. The aid is there. Hamas keeps it from those who need it most. pic.twitter.com/pCwfOXqXiC
The COGAT video was released after Hamas released videos of emaciated hostages, claiming that they were being subjected to the same starvation as the rest of the Gaza Strip over an apparent lack of resources being transferred to the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, the IDF confirmed on Monday that as part of the cooperation between Israel, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Germany, Belgium, and Canada, the IDF and COGAT led a series of actions aimed at improving the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip. As part of the efforts, 120 aid packets were dropped across the Gaza Strip.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a US-backed group, has been transferring food to the Gaza Strip after Hamas stole aid from humanitarian groups working in the Gaza Strip.
While GHF and Israel have denied there is famine in the Gaza Strip, Hamas-run Palestinian authorities have complained of widespread hunger. Hamas authorities have also alleged that over 1000 people were killed at GHF aid sites, an accusation denied by both GHF and Israel.
END
ISRAEL GAZA
Netanyahu Has Reportedly Opted For Permanent Military Occupation Of Gaza
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 03:05 PM
Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster is reporting that the Israeli government has made the decision to occupy the Gaza Strip on a permanent basis.
Correspondent Amit Segal reports Monday, “Senior official in Netanyahu’s office: The decision has been made — we’re going to occupy Gaza.”
The top official has been further quoted as saying: “If we do not act now, hostages will die of starvation and Gaza will remain under Hamas control.”
But the last days have seen conflicting reports over the status and future of the ground operation, dubbed ‘Gideon’s Chariots’. What has become clear in the last week is that negotiations are off, as Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered an expanded ground incursion in central Gaza.
With much of the Strip already decimated, and inhabitants on the verge of mass starvation, a big question has remained for Netanyahu: what’s next?
Hardline politicians in his own cabinet have called for the total removal of the Palestinian population, after President Trump months ago talked about turning the enclave into the ‘Rivera of the Mediterranean’.
Indeed a key question remains, will Trump back a plan of permanent Israeli military occupation? This would certainly open up the likelihood of eventual annexation of the territory.
⚡️ Israel decides to ‘OCCUPY’ Gaza — Channel 12
Top official: ‘If we do not act now, hostages will DIE of starvation and Gaza will remain under Hamas control’
But without doubt, a Hamas insurgency will remain active for the time being. But the race will be on to save the remaining hostages, who have been filmed in starving and extreme conditions by their Hamas and Islamic Jihad captors.
Also on Monday, US House Speaker Mike Johnson travelled to the Israeli occupation settlement of Ariel in the West Bank, declaring while there that the Palestinian territory is the “rightful property” of the Jewish people.
mike johnson, who literally shut down the house last week to block the release of the epstein files, is now praying at the western wall in a yarmulke… pic.twitter.com/TV3XUe1HzR
In response, the Palestinian Foreign Ministry (PA) condemned his visit and “inflammatory statements on the annexation of the West Bank.” It further said, “The ministry considers this a blatant violation of international law, international legitimacy resolutions, and the Arab and American efforts to stop the war, halt the cycle of violence, and achieve calm.”
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
ROBERT H TO US:
Oreshnik M
Several weeks ago now, I wrote how Putin was informed of a major breakthrough in hypersonic missile technology. Well now it should be clear. What has happened is that existing deployed systems like Sarmat carrying Avanguard which guides in at Mach 20 are now overshadowed by Oreshnik M with it’s 6 warheads. At Mach 28 and a range of 18,000 miles everyone has been overshadowed by this missile. There is no defense to this at all. At MACH 28 it is impossible to stop this beast. Perhaps this is why we see deployment of subs to strike range by the US. While publicly announced it is immaterial because other countries are already also in position to strike. So it is already a standoff. Should anyone really give the order then everything will change in minutes. We are rapidly approaching another missile crisis, not unlike what Kennedy faced with the Soviet Union over Cuba. However, today it is about new technology that is headed into serial production. Once Russia has a sufficient number of Oreshnik M in its arsenal, there is no 1st strike illusion. And that scenario will be removed from the game. All that will be left is total destruction and in minutes. This means that both the aggressor and defender suffer greatly within minutes. Forget this fancy illusion of conventional forces. Their day of war is long gone. While the conflict in Ukraine is brutal for Ukrainians dying at a rate of 52:1 against the Russians. It is clear that such tactics have seen their day in the past. When you die in less than 30 minutes on the line of contact, it is time to forfeit such tactics. The difficulty is that is all Ukrainians have to offer so they die in great numbers in the folly and fog of corrupt warfare. Warfare is changing rapidly where technology rules not grunts. As it is the 1st serially produced Oreshnik is less than 10 minutes away from Western European capitals. This version is both conventional and nuclear. There are over 50 such missiles now produced and deployed. Each such missile carries 6 warheads. This is a lot of firepower released in minutes. Every NATO base in Europe can be wiped out within minutes of a first launch if mass launched. Do the politicians have the mindset to comprehend what this means. There are times when such fights are best avoided. And if an exchange would occur then we should be clear in understanding that Russia does not stand alone. China within the last 10 days has made abundantly clear they will not allow Russia to lose in any fight. What the mass media dare not say is that the West is not just playing with fire with Russia but is playing with China as well. And neither of these will be alone either. Thus any illusion on conventional warfare is just that, an illusion. It would be wise and practical to understand that in any nuclear exchange there are NO winners. And as Lavrov said the other day such a fight should never be fought.
END
Trump Issues Further Explanation On Moving 2 Nuclear Submarines ‘Closer To Russia’
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025 – 02:35 PM
President Trump has in a newly published interview with Newsmax explained more about his decision to send a pair of nuclear submarines “closer to Russia” after the “fresh mouth” of former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev – who currently serves deputy chair of the country’s Security Council – made reference to atomic apocalypse in written remarks about the Ukraine war and standoff with Washington.
Trump told “Finnerty” show host Rob Finnerty at the White House that his “eyes light up” when nuclear weapons are mentioned, particularly by a Russian official like Medvedev.
“Well, a former president of Russia who’s now in charge of one of the most important councils, Medvedev, said some things that were very bad, talking about nuclear.”
Trump continued, “And when you mention the word ‘nuclear,’ you know, my eyes light up and I say, ‘We better be careful,’ because it’s the ultimate threat.”
Medvedev had on Thursday posted on Telegram that Trump should recall “his favorite films about the ‘walking dead'” and while referencing Soviet Union nuclear strike doctrine.
Trump explained in the new interview, “He shouldn’t have said it. He’s got a fresh mouth. He’s said things in the past, too. And so we always want to be ready. And so I have sent to the region two nuclear submarines. I just want to make sure that his words are only words and nothing more than that.”
When asked by the interviewer whether the submarines are in fact now closer to Russia, the US Commander-in-Chief responded:
“They’re closer to Russia. Yeah, they’re closer to Russia.”
The question remains whether these submarines are merely nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed. Certainly the latter scenario would mark a huge and dangerous escalation, and yet the US has always exercised strategic ambiguity in this regard.
It has been longstanding US national security policy to not disclose if a particular sub is deployed with nuclear warheads on board or not. And the reality is that these submarines are in all kinds of locations, and probably pass Russia’s shores not infrequently – but their locations are never really known. Trump had told reporters previously at the White House:
“Well, you just have to read what he said. He was talking about nuclear. When you talk about nuclear, we have to be prepared. And we’re totally prepared.”
Still, the Trump online statement caught the world’s – and certainly Moscow’s – attention, driving world headlines all day Friday…
Trump in the Newsmax interview continued by giving his assessment of the current status of the war and negotiations:
“This is [former President Joe] Biden’s war. This is not my war. This war would have never happened. It didn’t happen for four years. It was never even talked about other than anything I had conversations with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Trump said. “It was the apple of his eye, but he wasn’t going to go into Ukraine. And I will say this, that’s a war that should end. That’s a terrible war.”
On the new Aug. 8 deadline for peace, he reiterated that if a deal is not in place, “we’ll put sanctions on, and he’s pretty good with sanctions. He knows how to avoid sanctions.”
“I talked to Putin a lot, and I think we had a great conversation. Then I go home and I see that a bomb was dropped in Kyiv and some of the various cities, killing people. I say, you know, I just had this great conversation with him, and it looked like we were going to — I thought we had it worked out three different times, and maybe he wants to try and take the whole thing. I think it’s going to be very hard for him,” he said. But clearly Trump is seeking to manage expectations, and seems to be admitting his planned punitive action is unlikely to have huge impact.
Further on Putin, the US President said, “He’s obviously a tough cookie, so it hasn’t changed in that way. But I’m surprised. We had numerous good conversations where we could have ended this thing, and all of a sudden bombs start flying.”
END
RUSSIA UKRAINE
Ukrainian Long-Range Drones Hit Multiple Russian Refineries, Factories Overnight
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025 – 12:15 PM
At least three people were killed and two others injured overnight in western Russia due to Ukrainian drone strikes, according to regional governors, with one signifcant attack sparking a fire at an oil refinery in central Russia after it was hit.
Ukraine’s military confirmed it Russia’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk oil refineries, triggering large fires. It also said it struck the Annanefteprodukt oil storage site in the Voronezh region, which was likely a long-range drone attack, but few details were disclosed.
In the Penza region, Governor Oleg Melnichenko reported that a woman was killed and two others injured following a drone strike, and in the Samara region, Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev said an elderly man died after drone debris ignited a fire in a residential building.
In Rostov, a security guard at an industrial site was killed when a drone attack caused a fire in one of the buildings, per regional authorites. This was amid Russian trying to intercept the large-scale drone assault which went on for many hours into the morning, downing drones across seven districts.
Additionally, Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency said its drones hit the Primorsko-Akhtarsk military airfield, known as a launch site for Russian drone attacks on Ukraine. The SBU also claimed responsibility for striking a Penza factory involved in supplying electronics to Russia’s military-industrial sector.
In total, Russia’s milmitary said it shot down 112 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory, including 34 over the Rostov region. In all, the attack reportedly lasted at least nine hours.
“Last night, SBU drones continued targeting Russian military infrastructure deep in enemy territory. The first target of our long-range UAVs was the military airfield in Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Krasnodar Krai), which stores and launches Shahed drones used to attack Ukraine. A fire broke out in the area following the SBU drone strikes,” the SBU said.
“This facility manufactures equipment for digital networks in military command systems, devices for aviation, armored vehicles, naval vessels, and space systems. SBU drones successfully struck the site, and smoke was observed following the explosions,” the agency said.
💥Russian Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery attacked by drones early this morning. 1000km from the frontline.
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 2, 2025
Ukraine’s military said these stepped-up attacks are in response to the heightened deadly Russian attacks on Ukrianian cities, including one this week on Kiev which killed at least 31 people after nine-story apartment building was directly struck.
Russia has already been hitting Ukraine hard with strikes like this…
Russia DESTROYS key Ukrainian army logistics route in Kherson
MASSIVE FAB-3000 bomb — over 3 TONS — lands right in center of bridge
“In particular, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out successful strikes on verified targets in Russia that support the ongoing war of aggression against our country. The attack was in response to Russia’s recent terrorist shelling of Ukrainian cities, which killed and injured civilians,” the General Staff said.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukraine Claims Drone Strike On 5 Russian Fighter Jets At Crimean Bas
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 11:40 AM
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) announced it conducted a successful drone assault on a Russian airbase in Saky, a city in Crimea, in the overnight hours. This comes after weekend attacks deep inside Russia which hit oil refineries and a military-linked electronics factory.
The SBU claimed direct hits on five Russian military aircraft at the base, which reportedly destroyed one Su-30SM fighter jet and damaged another. Ukraine also said its drones hit three additional Su-24 bombers, along with an attack on a depot storing aviation munitions.
The Saky airfield has long been a key hub for Russian military activity in the Black Sea region. The SBU hailed the strike as “significant” – given that a single Su-30SM jet is worth up to around $50 million.
“The successful special operation carried out by the SBU in Saky marks another step toward weakening the enemy’s capacity to wage its war of aggression against Ukraine,” the SBU said.
However, Russia has yet to confirm or deny the Crimea airbase strike, or the jet losses – and is not likely to. If accurate, the aircraft destruction would mark the biggest such assault since Operation Spiderweb on June 1st, which targeted four airbases deep inside Russian territory.
Ukraine claimed it took out 41 Russian military aircraft in that operation, but Moscow consistently said this figure was exaggerated – but never disclosed a precise damage assessment.
The Su-30SM is a two-seat, twin-engine multirole fighter aircraft introduced by Russia early last decade, while the Su-24 is a twin-engine, supersonic strike aircraft developed by the Soviet Union – both of which are frequently used for combat missions in Ukraine.
Soon after Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine’s military vowed there would be more such attacks to come. Russia has of late been pummeling Ukrainian cities with drone and missile strikes, so it appears Kiev is mounting more and more cross-border revenge attacks over the last several days.
“The scale of forces willing to resist the Kremlin and carry out acts of demilitarization against the aggressor state is growing! The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reminds that there will be just retribution for every war crime committed against the Ukrainian people,” Ukrainian intelligence officers had emphasized after the successful June attack.
END
This is going to get very interesting:
Robert H to us:
Britain and NATO caught red handed
Yesterday, Lieutenant Colonel Richard Carroll, and Colonel Edward Blake, both active-duty officers of the British Army, along with as as-yet unidentified Agent of British MI-6 (Intelligence) were captured during a daring raid by Russian Special Forces, in the city of Ohakiv. What the Russians found were maps with strategic objects on the territory of Russia, Russian air defense plans, secret instructions on cooperation with Ukrainian drone operators and discs with encrypted data and records of conversations with the British General Staff were found.
Naturally the Brits said these were simple tourists who got lost. The Russians did not buy into the nonsense. These three Brits will be treated as they should be and will not be returned. And in the natural course of these things relationship between Britain and Russia hit new lows yesterday. The line between direct involvement got thinner by a bunch.
We are watching a slow movie of a march to war. A war which will go nuclear. Ukraine is a basket case of corruption and it lost this fight before it even started. Instead of cutting losses it seems many more millions will die needlessly. No direct fight with Russia by NATO will stay conventional. And China and others will join in on the side of Russia.
When you see the NATO forces rush in to save the most corrupt puppet regime in the world you will know that a nuclear exchange is only a matter of time. And with this expect Capital controls in Europe. I keep writing and cautioning that things are heating up and no one really cares as the slow march grinds away. Do you know that certain men aged 60 in Germany have been told to report for duty? Maybe we could have an AI system that could think rather than the poor leadership that exists today in wasting lives and money on senseless conflict.
The real fight is technology where Russia and China have captured the lead in PHOTONIC chips. Wait until you see the new Huawei operating system that allows decentralized computing. Microsoft no doubt regrets giving that away to China for next to nothing. And we should remember that the newest hypersonic missiles can reach speeds of Mach 28 and the West has zero to stop them. These games of brinkmanship or just foolhardy military adventures carry grave consequences for all of humanity and the planet.
Donald Trump made another move in his feckless game of global checkers today in Scotland, with the announcement that he is giving Russia a new, much shorter deadline of ten days to end the war in Ukraine. Trump warned that if President Vladimir Putin does not reach a deal by around August 7–9, the US will impose new sanctions and “severe tariffs” on Russia and countries supporting its war effort. Trump’s new deadline elicited a collective yawn in Moscow.
Since the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO), trade between the US and Russia has shrunk dramatically. In 2021, US exports to Russia totaled approximately $6.4 billion and US imports from Russia totaled about $29.7 billion. This resulted in a US trade deficit with Russia of about $23.3 billion for that year.
In 2024, total trade in goods between the United States and Russia declined sharply due to ongoing sanctions, war-related restrictions, and other political measures. US exports to Russia in 2024:
Approximately $526 million, marking a decrease of over 12% compared to 2023. Major U.S. exports included medical/technical equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and some food and chemical products.
U.S. imports from Russia in 2024:
About $3.0–$3.27 billion, down more than 34% compared to 2023 and down over 75% from pre-war levels in 2021–2022. Key Russian exports to the U.S. were fertilizers (about $1.3 billion), precious metals (about $878 million), and inorganic chemicals (about $683 million). Energy imports have almost entirely ceased.
Trump’s threat of new sanctions is just a blowhard bloviating… Ending shipments of fertilizers and precious metals is not going to hurt the Russian economy one bit. Thanks to the sanctions Biden levied in 2022, Russia’s economy grew to be the fourth largest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity.
Western propaganda that the Russian economy is failing–citing current growth of 1.4%–ignores the fiscal policies that the Russian central bank put in place in 2024 to cool inflation. But those measures were only temporary, with the central bank announcing a two percent cut in interest rates late last week.
That means that Trump, if he is serious, will impose bone-crunching tariffs on China and India. Both countries appear unfazed by Trump’s bullying bluster. China in particular holds some very strong cards… Rare-earth minerals desperately needed by the US military industrial complex. I think this will be another Trump nothing-burger.
So why did Trump whittle down the deadline? One possible explanation concerns the rapid deterioration of the military situation for Ukraine. Russia is making rapid advances all along the line of contact and even Ukrainian media and social media outlets are expressing alarm. Is that what sparked Trump’s decision to shorten the time for Russia to agree to a ceasefire? Fifty day or 12 days, it does not matter. Trump has no leverage to compel Russia to agree to the ceasefire that the US and Europe want to be imposed.
Russia is going to continue with its offensive and will take more territory in the coming weeks. Russian troops are pushing north in Zaporhyzhia, moving south through Sumy and Kharkiv, and advancing to the west, having already taken territory in Dniepropetrovsk. No pressure from Washington or Europe will alter this reality.
I discussed this issue, as well as developments in West Asia, with Nima and Pepe. Following that podcast, I welcomed the Judge back from his well-deserved vacation:
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Most Americans Won’t Get COVID-19 Booster This Fall, Survey Says
A majority of Americans said they will likely not receive a COVID-19 booster vaccine this fall, according to a poll released Friday.
A survey from the health care organization KFF found that 59 percent of respondents said they either will not or likely will not receive the booster dose. Around 37 percent said they would “definitely not” receive the shot, while 23 percent said they would “probably not get” the shot.
According to the poll, 21 percent said they will “definitely” receive the booster, and 19 percent said they will “probably get” one.
The survey, meanwhile, indicated that 36 percent of Americans over the age of 65 said they “definitely” will get the updated COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available. Around the same number of Democrats overall also said they would do so, according to the pollsters.
This comes as the U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has changed the COVID-19 vaccine policy since the Trump administration took over earlier this year. Last month, the HHS dismissed all 17 members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccine advisory panel, ordered the removal of mercury from influenza vaccines, and ended the CDC’s COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for pregnant women and healthy children.
The KFF survey found that most Americans say they are confused about the changes to U.S. vaccine policy that have been made in the last six months or so.
It also found that 33 percent of all adults surveyed are “very” or “somewhat” worried about whether COVID-19 vaccines will be available to them this fall. But most adults, or 67 percent, told KFF they are “not too” or “not at all” worried about that prospect, it found.
On Thursday, the CDC released data showing that vaccination rates for several diseases, including measles, diphtheria, and polio, decreased among U.S. kindergartners in the 2024–2025 school year from the previous year.
For the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, coverage went from 95.2 percent in the 2019–2020 school year to 92.7 percent last year, before landing at 92.5 percent in 2024–2025. In Texas, the epicenter of the recent outbreak, MMR coverage has fallen to 93.2 percent from 96.9 percent in 2019.
The figures brought forth by the CDC did not include data for COVID-19 vaccines, but only included vaccines that are typically given during childhood.
In addition, exemptions from one or more vaccines increased to 3.6 percent in 2024–2025 from 3.3 percent the year before, the CDC website said. Exemptions, which can be granted on medical or religious grounds, increased in 36 states and the District of Columbia, with 17 states reporting exemptions exceeding 5 percent, it said.
And in a recent report, the CDC said that activity for COVID-19 was low nationwide. Respiratory illness activity, including RSV and influenza, was also described as “very low“ by the agency. ”Very high“ levels of the virus were being reported in Texas, Hawaii, and Alaska, while ”high” levels are occurring in California, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and Kentucky, according to a map provided by the agency for the week ending July 26.
Bill Gates’ ‘Vaccine’ Scientist Warns Covid-Vaxxed Face ‘Spectacular Wave’ of Mass Death
June 10, 2025
Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche, a former Gates Foundation “vaccine” scientist, warns that the human race is facing a deadly “spectacular wave of hyperacute systemic disease” that will wipe out billions of people who received mRNA injections. Bossche reveals that Covid mRNA shots were designed with a “delay” that triggers an “evolutionary mechanism.” He warns that the coming devastation caused by Covid injections will be “unprecedented in the history of clinical virology and underappreciated by our public health authorities.”
William Makis MD: 45% of ‘Covid Deaths’ Were Not Caused by COVID-19
June 11, 2025
COVID time series graphs show clearly the COVID vaccines kill people. That’s why they keep the plots hidden from view. All you have to do is plot the time series graphs and you can see the safety signal clearly. It’s not rocket science. So what do they do? They hide the time series data. The claim that the COVID vaccines are perfectly safe is easily falsified by looking at any time series plot. A safe vaccine has a relatively flat time series (it may have bumps for seasonality if the vaccine is given over a narrow time window). An unsafe vaccine has a time series where the deaths per day increase from baseline.
In this article, I’ll explain:
what a time series is,
what a safe vaccine looks like, and
what the COVID vaccines look like.
Note: Article is free to read with a smart phone. Computer access requires a subscription.
DEBUNKED: “Millions Saved” COVID-19 Vaccine Study Torn to Shreds
May 18, 2025
In this revealing episode, epidemiologist Nicolas Hulscher sits down with Dr. Raphael Lataster to dismantle the widely cited Watson et al study, published in The Lancet, which claimed COVID-19 vaccines saved 14.4 million lives in a single year. Dr. Lataster presents his rigorous meta-critique published in the Journal of Independent Medicine, exposing the study’s deeply flawed assumptions, hidden conflicts of interest, and misleading methodology.
First Peer-Reviewed Study Documents Post-Vaccine Magnetism
June 12, 2025
Magnetism appeared months after mRNA injection—Pfizer “F” lots were disproportionately linked, with proposed mechanisms involving spike-induced iron metabolism disruption. This study has confirmed observations reported by many individuals since 2021. Let’s break down what the researchers found:
1. Iatrogenic Magnetism Is Real and Clinically Observable
Patients in this series demonstrated the attachment of ferromagnetic objects (e.g., spoons, magnets) to the skin—particularly the forehead, temples, chest, and shoulders.
This effect was physically verified by researchers, often with photo documentation.
2. Symptoms Emerge Months After Vaccination
Onset occurred typically 1–20 months post-injection, suggesting the phenomenon is not caused by residual components in the injection site but possibly from genetic expression or systemic distribution.
Joe Rogan Horrified as Dr. Mary Talley Bowden Shares Chilling COVID Story
June 12, 2025
Hospitals deliberately euthanized COVID patients—a practice Dr. Mary Talley Bowden said was disturbingly common. Hospitals were incentivized to euthanize COVID patients—the more they killed, the more money they made. Attorney Tom Renz laid this out explicitly in an explosive testimony before the Pennsylvania State Senate. “When you go to the hospital, you get tested. They get paid more. When you get admitted for COVID, they get paid more. When they put you on remdesivir, they get paid more. When you get ventilated, they get paid more. When you die, they get paid more. This is perverse. We have incentivized the murder of patients rather than incentivize treatment.”
[Click on image above for the interview]
Public Reports Widespread mRNA Carnage, Mass Injury and Death in New X Polls
June 24, 2025
In a poll conducted on my X account (@NicHulscher), 81.3% of 1,229 respondents answered “Yes” to the question: “Have you or a loved one suffered serious injury, disability, or death after receiving a COVID-19 mRNA shot?” Only 18.7% answered “No.”
A second X poll hosted by the McCullough Foundation (@McCulloughFund) asked: “How many deaths do you think occurred as a direct result of mass COVID-19 mRNA injection programs?”
Of the 1,279 voters:
79% said “Over 1 million”
18% said “100,000 to 1 million”
Just 3% believed deaths were fewer than 100,000
This implies that 97% of respondents believe that the mass COVID-19 mRNA injection program has caused at least 100,000 deaths—with the overwhelming majority estimating the toll in the millions.
Landmark Analysis Dissolves 3 Major Myths About COVID Vaccine–Induced Myocarditis
June 13, 2025
McCullough Foundation Scholar Dr. M. Nathaniel Mead Reveals the True Risks—Supported by 341 Citations:
Myth #1: Coronavirus Infections Cause More Myocarditis Than COVID-19 Vaccinations
Myth #2: COVID-19 Vaccine-Induced Myocarditis is Usually Mild and Transient
Myth #3: Risk-Benefit Analyses Favor the COVID-19 mRNA “Vaccines”
This analysis confirms that the risks of COVID-19 modified mRNA injections far outweigh any theoretical benefits, and it calls for the immediate market withdrawal of these cardiotoxic products in the interest of public health and safety.
KFF Health News Reports on Dangerous Food Additive — Doesn’t Mention It’s Also Used in Vaccines
June 13, 2025
A recent exposé by KFF Health News laid out the health risks of emulsifiers like polysorbate 80 used in processed foods. Vaccine experts said this raised the question: If the chemical is too dangerous to ingest, why are we injecting it into newborns? Research also shows PS-80 crosses the blood-brain barrier, and injections containing the substance can trigger adverse effects, including the breakdown of red blood cells and anaphylactoid reactions.
The Autopsy Data Are In: What They Reveal About COVID-19 Vaccines and Public Health Oversight
June 2, 2025
Two newly published peer-reviewed studies in Science, Public Health Policy & the Law provide critical forensic evidence that strengthens the link between COVID-19 vaccination and a range of fatal adverse events. The systematic review led by Hulscher et al. and the VAERS-based autopsy analysis by Rose together represent an important step forward in our effort to understand COVID-19 vaccine safety through post-mortem investigation. These studies highlight both the urgent need for greater transparency in pre-release and pre-approval vaccine safety science and the systemic failures that have hindered the collection of autopsy data in the COVID-19 era.
64% of Embalmers at a Tennessee Convention Confirm They Have Seen White Fibrous Clots This Year
June 17, 2025
The Tennessee Funeral Directors Association has publicly acknowledged the existence of white fibrous clots in corpses, with 64% of embalmers and funeral directors attending its Convention reporting sightings of the clots in the first half of 2025. The clots were found in an average of 17% of all corpses. In addition to the white rubbery clots caused by the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, 70% of respondents reported signs of micro-clotting, and 39% observed an increase in infant deaths in 2025.
Fibrous Clots Found In Young Child Born To Pfizer-Vaccinated Pregnant Mother
June 14, 2025
While we knew for years that embalmers were finding these bizarre clots, the fact that little babies and children are now turning up with the “Calamari Clot Syndrome” shows that the toxic mRNA technology does not die off, but also passes on to the next generation. The clots accumulate in the brain, leading to neuronal dysfunction and cell death.
‘Long COVID’ Symptoms Occur in Vaccinated Individuals Who Never Had COVID: ‘Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection’
June 30, 2025
A new peer-reviewed study has confirmed that vaccinated individuals who were never infected with COVID-19 are developing the same neurological and psychiatric symptomsblamed on “long COVID,” raising serious questions about whether the vaccine—not the purported virus—is the underlying cause. Long COVID is characterized as a chronic condition that emerges after an infection with SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen said to cause COVID-19. But the new study shows this chronic condition occurs in those who were never infected, but who were vaccinated.
Pfizer experimented on millions of human beings with 12 vaccine candidates, including self-amplifying mRNA (saRNA), which is highly infectious through shedding. Self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) is part of the flagship US government’s dual-use mRNA lipid nanoparticle technology portfolio used to create bioweapons ranging from SARS-CoV-2 to H15N1 and ‘mRNA vaccines.’
Excess Deaths Surging in Nations with Highest Covid ‘Vaccine’ Rates
June 16, 2025
Excess deaths remain significantly elevated in most Western countries, five years after the pandemic began. Dr. John Campbell, a medical commentator, is one of the few medical experts asking why. Campbell raised the alarm on his YouTube show, analyzing excess death data from Our World in Data for 20 countries. His conclusion: Western nations with high mRNA COVID-19 vaccine usage continue to see unusually high death rates, while countries with lower vaccine uptake or different vaccine strategies are seeing fewer deaths.
Cleveland Clinic: Flu ‘Vaccines’ Slash Life Expectancy
May 28, 2025
A damning new study from the world-renowned Cleveland Clinic has confirmed that flu “vaccines” slash overall life expectancyby increasing the chance of being infected with influenza. The study found that people who received the seasonal shots have a 26.9% higher chance of getting the flu compared to the unvaccinated. The findings of the study were highlighted by esteemed British immunologist Dr. John Campbell.
Pfizer’s Covid ‘Vaccine’ Linked to Spike in Löfgren’s Syndrome
June 18, 2025
A new study has revealed that Pfizer’s Covid mRNA “vaccine” is linked to recent spikes in cases of Löfgren’s syndrome and plaque-type cutaneous sarcoidosis. Löfgren’s syndrome, also known as acute sarcoidosis, is a specific form of sarcoidosis, which is a multisystem inflammatory disorder. According to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), it presents with a characteristic triad of symptoms: bilateral hilar lymphadenopathy (swollen lymph nodes in the chest), erythema nodosum (a rash of painful, red bumps on the legs), and arthritis, especially in the ankles. Their peer-reviewed study was published in the journal Acta Dermato-Venereologica.
Neurosurgeon Russell Blaylock Warns Neurological Disease Surge Caused by Chemicals Sprayed Into Skies from Planes: ‘Directly Into the Brain’
June 20, 2025
According to Dr. Blaylock, nano-sized aluminum particles are being dispersed into the atmosphere by secretive government or military-affiliated operations, a practice he says poses serious dangers to human health. “Nano-aluminum being dropped into the atmosphere is being inhaled by humans,” Blaylock stated, adding that the particles travel “directly into the brain.” He explained that once inside the brain, the aluminum targets the region “most affected in Alzheimer’s Disease.”
Expert Sounds Alarm on DARPA’s Chilling Bioterror Plot
June 21, 2025
The report details a “fictional” bioterror attack scenario scheduled for July 4th, 2025. It is raising eyebrows among national security watchers, with some experts warning the line between simulation and reality is growing disturbingly thin. Investigative journalist Jon Fleetwood has uncovered Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) documents that suggest the federal government may be preparing for more than just hypothetical threats. Among the most controversial proposals is the deployment of biosensors that could blanket entire cities, tracking infections, mobility, and even genomic data of individuals. “This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s in DARPA’s own documents,” Fleetwood said. “They’re calling it ‘biosensor density deployment’—and it’s about controlling populations during future outbreaks, not just responding to them.”
USDA Preparing to Mass Vaccinate Poultry Against Bird Flu — Ignoring Scientific and Public Warnings
Jun 24, 2025
Despite RFK Jr.’s public opposition, the USDA is planning to mass vaccinate poultry — a move that could drive mutations and spark a human pandemic. A recent study by Li et al found that mass vaccination of poultry against H5N1 with a non-sterilizing vaccine during a widespread animal pandemic can accelerate viral evolution, leading to more virulent strains and increasing the risk of a human pandemic:
Washington Post Reports on ‘Plan to Vaccinate All Americans, Despite RFK Jr.’
June 24, 2025
Vaccine makers, pharmacists, professional medical societies and others opposed to recent changes in vaccine policy are banding together to create their own system for recommending and purchasing vaccines in a move designed to bypass government health agencies’ recommendations, The Washington Post reported. HHS spokesperson Andrew Nixon said the agency and CDC “remain committed to ensuring that vaccine guidance is rigorous, independent, and truly in service to the health of the American people — not corporate interests.” The Post reported that Nixon also called one of the new coalition’s leading organizations “aself-appointed echo chamber masquerading as oversight.”
job, that is to con us to thinking they will safeguard us from deadly mRNA technology in present form etc. Their job is to mislead us into silence & compliance; they were hired ONLY for that, sit back
I said prior, 4 years from now mRNA vaccine and more will still be on market. You will hear lots of talks and BS but there is no intention to reverse PREP Act, victim compensation, stop the mRNA Malone Bourla vaccine, none of it. It is all a big con.
COVID was a fraud lie, all of it. A PCR manufactured fake non-pandemic. To do this. To bring that Malone Sahin et al. mRNA vaccine.
Those now at the agencies have the task of keeping it. Their task is to posture and BS us into thinking they are ‘working on it’.
We were lied to. We the people are all part of a game, a huge con game, a money making game, a power control game. The joke remains on us.
will find you, find your writings, do not worry those of us who applaud her work; I do! She is today Trump’s go to for intel; I count her as a friend; I like her manner, she has to flesh subversives
out. She is balls to the wall re Trump, it is you be all for him, all in, our you are out. She is coming.
Be careful you be loomered! the Loomered Tip Line!
Laura Loomer Shares “Tip Line” to Purge More Trump Officials
The far-right MAGA personality promises more Trump officials will be ousted soon.
‘A few years ago, Laura Loomer was a political gadfly—she commanded a following among the very online right, but beyond that world was someone of little impact or influence. Today? Loomer is the de facto personnel director at the White House. She has the ear of President Trump. And that when she targets someone for supposed disloyalty, more often than not that person’s time in the Trump administration is over. (To be clear, the White House doesn’t acknowledge that Loomer’s opposition research was the reason behind anyone’s ouster.) Loomer, undoubtedly, has her enemies in the White House. As the New York Timeshas noted, she has been blocked from serving Trump in an official capacity—not once but twice. And yet, she has persisted. She now functions, effectively, as the president’s loyalty enforcer. Trump likes people who are loyal to him—no matter what else they say or do. And Loomer has repeatedly made clear that he is her top priority. (“President Trump comes first,” she told the Times she has even told her boyfriend.) For Trump, that’s enough—will it be for her too?’
NEWS ADDICTS
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Trump Hammers Top Dem Over Crucial Senate NegotiationsPresident Donald Trump shut down a backroom deal with Senate Democrats Saturday night, nuking hours of negotiations over his pending nominees.Talks to confirm up to 60 of Trump’s picks collapsed after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) demanded over $1 billion in exchange for Democrat support.“Tell Schumer, who is under tremendous political pressure from within his own party, the Radical …READ MORE
Longterm Republican Announces Bid for US SenateLouisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) just made it official—he’s running for a third term in the U.S. Senate.The Louisiana Republican confirmed his re-election campaign Saturday after months of speculation. “Louisiana and our country face serious challenges,” Cassidy said. “I’m running for reelection to work with the people of Louisiana and my fellow Americans to not just face these challenges, but …READ MORE
Key States Bans ‘Trans’ Surgeries for MinorsNew Hampshire has made history by becoming the first New England state to ban “transgender” surgeries and hormone treatments for minors.New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) signed two bills into law Friday that prohibit the use of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and sex-change surgeries for anyone under 18.“These bills represent a balanced, bipartisan effort to protect children,” Ayotte said after …READ MORE
SCOTUS to Hear Major Consequential CaseThe U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to take up a major case that could outlaw the use of race when drawing congressional maps. The decision has the potential to “fundamentally reshape the nation’s legislative maps,” Fox News reported Friday.The case stems from Louisiana, where Republicans are pushing back on a second majority-black district they were forced to create under the …READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Bureau Of Labored Statistic
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 10:15 AM
By Bas van Geffen, senior market strategist at Rabobank
Non-farm payrolls came in at just 73,000 jobs last month. Moreover, revised estimates for May and June came in at just 19k and 14k. This means that 258,000 fewer jobs were created in those two months than initially estimated.
So, Friday’s employment report was very disappointing, to say the least. It supports the argument of the two dissenting FOMC members, namely that the labor market outlook may be weaker than the Fed thought. It certainly raises the probability of a rate cut when the Fed’s policymakers meet again in September – something the market had started to doubt after last week’s policy decision.
Yet, Trump wasn’t exactly happy. The US president wants the central bank to cut rates. But he does not want lower rates because of concerns that the economy is cooling down. In fact, Trump either does not believe the statistics, or he really does not want to hear them. Following the poor employment report, President Trump fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, claiming she was a political appointee by Biden.
In short, on top of threats to the Fed’s independence, the market may now have to start worrying about the reliability of US data – and not only because statistics agencies are running into capacity constraints as a result of budget cuts.
Because Trump will get an early opportunity to take more control of the Fed. On Friday, Kugler resigned from the board, several months before her term ended. The US president will reportedly appoint her replacement (who may just become the next Fed Chair when Powell leaves), and the next Commissioner of Labor Statistics, by the end of this week.
Equity markets fell on Friday, as Trump’s tariffs and the employment report suggested that global growth could be weaker than expected. Today, European markets are opening in the green, hoping that the weak data will elicit Fed easing. Indeed, EUR/USD rose 1.5 cents after the non-farm payrolls as the market revises its outlook for US monetary policy, and perhaps further boosted by concerns about the future independence of the central bank and statistics offices.
As damaging as the firing of the BLS head may be for the trust in US statistics, it wasn’t President Trump’s scariest social media post. Last Thursday, Medvedev, currently the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that Trump’s new ultimatum to stop the war in Ukraine is “a threat and another step towards war.” The former president also reminded Trump of Russia’s nuclear strike capabilities. Responding to Medvedev, President Trump announced that he “ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case.”
Russia and China have started joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan. These war games were planned well before the escalatory rhetoric between Trump and Medvedev, but they do underscore deepening Russia-China ties.
Meanwhile, China’s control over critical raw materials is biting the US’ military dominance. Even though Beijing has loosened export controls on rare earths after the US and China agreed to a trade truce, the Wall Street Journal reports that manufacturers of military equipment still struggle to source key inputs. This leads to significantly higher production costs, and –worse– production delays.
According to US Trade Representative Greer, talks on these rare earth flows are “about halfway there,” while Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about a near-term trade deal with China.
Canadian officials sounded equally optimistic about a deal to lower US import tariffs, after talks with the USTR and Secretary of Commerce. However, Greer suggested that many of the August 1 tariffs were unlikely to be lowered. Whether that also applies to Canada remains to be seen. The Canadians have a meeting with Commerce Secretary Lutnick this week, but they don’t expect a quick resolution. A follow-up meeting will reportedly be scheduled for late August.
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
Oil Crashes, Stocks Soar On ‘Scripted’ Iranian Retaliation; Gold & Crypto Jump As Dollar Dumps
Monday, Jun 23, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Some fascinating price action today as stocks surged and oil dumped after Iran retaliated with strikes on US bases in Iraq and Qatar. It seems clear that traders are simply looking through today’s actions as ‘theater’ (the bases were warned beforehand) that actually is de-escalating the situation and CNN reported that “TRUMP DOESN’T WANT MORE MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN MIDEAST“.
Stocks kneejerked lower at the Sunday night futures open, but recovered into the European open. After a drop during the European session, all the majors surged from the US cash open, as oil prices fell and the world seemed oddly complacent that ‘mission accomplished’ had ended it. Then Qatar closed its airspace and China warned of imminent attacks by Iran on US bases and stocks tanked… which then occurred in Iraq and Qatar.
Interestingly, after the initial panic puke, stocks roared back higher and oil prices tanked as it appears the market is calling Iran’s bluff here and basically saying this is all theater…
Oil prices plunged over 13% from the opening highs – a day like no other – erasing all of the gains since Iran launched its first missiles…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy stocks were clubbed like a baby seal as oil prices plunged…
Source: Bloomberg
TSLA helped dragged the Mag7 into the green for the day with a big gain following its Robotaxi launch…
HIMS was slammed after its GLP-1 analogs were called out by big pharma…
Also interestingly, Goldman Sachs Geopolitical Risk basket (composed of defense, oil producers, and oil tankers) dropped notably today, seeming to show no signs of an overreaction to the geopolitical risk escalations. In fact, defense continues to trade below election levels and has not yet recovered post DOGE risk unwind…
Source: Bloomberg
Today saw more dovish FedSpeak – following on from Waller’s calls for July cut on Friday:
*BOWMAN: SUPPORTED JUNE RATE HOLD, LABOR MARKET SOLID, WOULD SUPPORT CUT IN JULY IF INFL. REMAINS SUBDUED
*GOOLSBEE: IF TARIFF DIRT IN AIR CLEARS, SHOULD PROCEED WITH CUT
Treasury yields tumbled dramatically today led by the short-end but as stocks rebounded, sellers in bonds appeared but not enough to erase gains on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s action moved 2Y yields down to their lowest since
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations jumped significantly for 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
…with the odds of a cut in July now up to 23%…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was monkeyhammered lower after an initial surge to safety overnight…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold managed to hold on to gains (after spiking overnight then dropping into the red during the day before the Iran missile strikes)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin soared back above $103k after an ugly weekend (as usual BTC dumped on geopol escalation over weekend but then rallied this afternoon as the market thinks we have de-escalated)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, our proxy for geopolitical risk (oil VIX) tumbled today…
Source: Bloomberg
…and with numerous dovish Fed speakers as well as global trade policy uncertainty at YTD lows, it seems there is not much to stop stocks testing all-time-highs (gamma is neutral) apart from yet another escalation in the Middle East (but returning back to where we started, the market has called ‘bullshit’ on this Iran tension escalating any further).
Russian energy entities, including Rosatom, are experiencing significant financing difficulties, raising doubts about their ability to fulfill international energy project commitments.
Kazakhstan has decided to independently build thermal power plants originally contracted to Russia’s Inter RAO due to a lack of promised financing, and is increasingly turning to China for nuclear power plant construction.
Rosatom is seeking government financial support to maintain its global leadership in the nuclear energy market and carry out new projects, citing limited financing options due to international sanctions.
Russian energy entities are experiencing financing woes, raising questions about whether Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear energy agency, will be able to fulfill its obligations to build Kazakhstan’s first atomic power plant.
Already, financing troubles have caused another Russian state-controlled firm, Inter RAO, to lose out on constructing three thermal power plants in Kazakhstan.
During a July 30 appearance before the Russian State Commission on Energy, Andrei Petrov, a top Rosatom official, openly acknowledged that Rosatom was seeking government support. The entity has the resources to complete ongoing work, but by 2027, it will need a financial injection to carry out new projects, Petrov indicated.
Rosatom officials have been somewhat cagey in specifying exactly what kind of support they are seeking and have shied away from specifying an amount. For example, Rosatom’s chief, Alexei Likhachev, recently stated the entity is seeking the “provision of special resources” from the government, according to a report published by the Interfax news agency.
In 2024, a Rosatom official, referring to a program to develop floating nuclear power plants, indicated that Rosatom had limited financing options due to international sanctions on Russia, and required state-subsidized low-interest loans in order for the company to maintain its industry lead in several areas. Rosatom presently enjoys a roughly 50 percent share of the global nuclear energy market, with operations even in several NATO member states, such as Turkey and Hungary.
“The only way to maintain leadership with this product [floating nuclear power plants] is to subsidize exports even more than we already are,” Interfax quoted Vladimir Aptekarev, a top official at the Rosatom subsidiary Atomenergomash JSC, as saying in 2024, citing Chinese competition.
The Russian government, given the immense burden on the state budget imposed by its war effort in Ukraine, has so far resisted pleas from energy entities for increased support. Rosatom officials have acknowledged that the lack of assistance has hindered efforts to build new types of thermal and nuclear units, known as units Shelf-M and Elena-AM.
The Russian government’s cash crunch appears to be responsible for delays in construction of three planned Kazakh thermal power plants near Kokshetau, Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk. Inter RAO signed a contract to build the three plants at an estimated cost of about $2.7 billion, with financing to be provided by Russian state-connected institutions. But the money never materialized.
On July 31, Deputy Kazakh Prime Minister Roman Sklyar confirmed that Kazakhstan was ditching the contract with Inter RAO, adding that it would build the plants on its own, according to media reports.
“When the company [Inter RAO] took on the obligation to build these facilities, it was supposed to receive export financing at a low rate. Unfortunately, they were unable to do this, so it was decided to build them independently,” he said.
The Kazakh government’s decision to move on from Inter RAO on the thermal plant projects instantly sparks questions about the fate of Rosatom’s deal to build Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power station.
When Kazakhstan’s Atomic Energy Agency announced in June that Rosatom would lead the consortium to build the plant on the shores of Lake Balkhash, it indicated that the deal was contingent on the Russian entity’s ability to arrange financing. “Work on the issue of attracting state export financing at the expense of the Russian Federation has begun,” a KAEA statement announced at the time.
At the same time in June, Kazakh officials made the unexpected announcement that they were giving a contract to China’s National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) to build a second nuclear power plant. At the time, observers saw the announcement as a shrewd move to keep Kazakhstan’s two powerful neighbors, Russia and China, happy. But in hindsight, the move can also be seen as a hedge.
On July 31, Kazakhstan appeared to give a vote of no-confidence in Rosatom’s ability to deliver on the nuclear plant. Sklyar, the deputy prime minister, announced that CNNC would lead construction of a third nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. He declined to disclose a cost estimate for the projects, adding that the locations of both the second and third nuclear power stations had not been determined.
Even so, it appears Kazakhstan has a backup plan already in place in case the Rosatom deal falls through.
END
LATE MORNING:
Oil Jumps As Trump Threatens India With ‘Substantial’ Tariffs For Buying Russian Crude
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 11:00 AM
President Trump switched his attention from the domestic jobs figures to the price of oil this morning with a Truth Social post that lambasts India for their dealings with Russia:
“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits.”
Then Trump made the threats:
They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.
Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT
And oil prices spiked on the news…
This commentary and action by President Trump comes shortlay afterDave DeCamp reported earlier via AntiWar.com,a senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling on the US to “strangle” the Russian economy by imposing tariffs on Moscow’s trading partners, though the US measures are unlikely to hurt Russia.
“The [Russian] economy, geared for war, cannot withstand the pressure and is holding on only through the sale of energy resources,” said Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office. “It is possible to strangle the economy with secondary tariffs proposed in the USA.”
President Trump has threatened to hit countries that are purchasing Russian oil with 100% tariffs, and a bill in the Senate would impose 500% tariffs on any country that “knowingly engages in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products.“
Either tariff rate would have a significant impact on the US economy since China and India are major buyers of Russian oil. President Trump has already announced a 25% tariff on India and an unspecified “penalty” on the country over its trade with Russia. But Indian officials say they will continue buying Russian oil despite the US threats of further action.
In response to US threats to impose tariffs over the purchase of Russian oil, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing would “take energy supply measures” based on China’s national interests.
“Tariff wars have no winners,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Gua Jiakum. “Coercion and pressuring cannot solve problems. China will firmly safeguard its own sovereignty, security, and development interests.”
Russia has also made clear that it’s not fazed by the US’s ultimatum to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine by August 8 or face tariffs and other economic measures.
The deadline prompted a warning from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who said each US ultimatum “is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”
India has indicated that it would continue buying oil from Russia despite threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Indian foreign ministry said its relationship with Russia was “steady and time-tested,” and should not be seen through the prism of a third country. —Associated Press
Trump responded to Medvedev’s comments by announcing the deployment of two nuclear submarines, a highly provocative move. “I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” he wrote on Truth Social on Friday. “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.”
* * *
With all that said, one wonders if President Trump – strange as it may seem – has got the tap on the shoulder from ‘Big Oil’ explaining that they need oil prices higher (not ‘high’) for ‘drill baby drill’ to succeed.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISS
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1571 DOWN 0.0015 PTS OR 15 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.74 UP 0.399 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3297 UP .0019 OR 19 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3776 DOWN 0.0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 23.36 PTS OR 0.66%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 225.64 PTS OR 0.82%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.06%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 225.64 PTS OR 0.92%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.36 PTS OR 0.66%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.06 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 270.22 PTS OR 0.66%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3360.00
silver:$37.32
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.62 DOWN 31 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.061% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.500% DOWN 5 FULL POINTS AND 00/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.214 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.475 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6361 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1582 DOWN 0.0040 OR 40 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.03 DOWN 3.27 OR YEN IS UP 33 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5120 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0023 OR 94 BASIS pts to 1.3778
Stocks, Gold, & Crypto Soar As ‘Hard Landing’ Odds Rise
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Friday’s chaotic price action was perhaps most notably highlighted by the collapse in 2Y Yields and corresponding surge in rate-cut odds as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes that the market is scrambling to reprice a sharply more “dovish” Fed path, with September now fully-priced (~95%)…
Source: Bloomberg
…while Week-over-week, ‘2 cuts by Dec’ odds more than doubled following the Friday data (and even more critically, hedging for that FAT LEFT TAIL of > = 4 cuts is jumping again too on this reopened potential or a ‘Harder Landing’ than the market had recently priced)…
Source: Nomura
The implied odds of a hard landing are back up at 33%…
Source: Nomura
The dovish shift sent stocks, crypto, and gold prices higher as the ‘bad news is good news’ narrative is back (for now).
McElligott thinks the lesson with respect to the “Economic Data trumps The Fed”-outcome that Equities are ‘cheering for’ is this:
If cuts-pricing picks-up because of continued substantial (DIS)inflation in isolation (while Earnings & Profits amongst the Mag7-8 / MegaCap Tech / AI –universes continue to hold-the-line), the bad news is “Good” for Equities.
But if Fed-cuts–pricing is due to Labor normalization now accelerating from cooler into outright contraction, it now seems quite obvious that bad news is “Bad”.
You just have to decide which is the ‘news’ you are looking for – here’s jobless claims improving while payrolls are puking.
Choose your own adventure…
Source: Bloomberg
All the US Majors rallied today, topping pre-Powell levels and rallying up to the midnight highs before Trump’s new tariffs hit…
Despite the strength in stocks, Goldman’s trading desk noted that it was a quiet start to the week – “our desk is a 3 out of 10 in terms of overall activity levels”.
EPS revisions have been very strong, but we’re now past the heart of the earnings season, meaning that tailwind is moving behind us
Additionally, Friday was the largest SPX 0DTE session of all time, $2.8 trillion notional traded in one session, and today saw S&P price actio and 0DTE flows actually decouple on and off…
Friday’s big losses for big shorts were erased today…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, the S&P 493 rallied back to unchanged from Thursday’s close today while Mag7 stocks remain the laggards (even though they outperformed bigly today)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gains post-IPO open are a FIGMAnt of your imagination…
Talking of your imagination, American Eagle took off today after Trump’s Sydney Sweeney comments…
Quite a decoupling as stocks have erased all the losses while TSY yields remain dramatically lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were lower overall today but only marginally with the long-end outperforming (but the short-end still a huge winner since payrolls)…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, the yield curve (2s10s) continues to steepen and flash bright red signals for a recession (and Fed policy error)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar – like bonds – also refused to bounce back with stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
While the dollar went nowhere, gold extended its ‘dovish’ gains, pushing solidly back above its 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended Friday’s losses with WTI testing a $65 handle again…
Source: Bloomberg
After a rough weekend, bitcoin rallied back above $115k today…
Source: Bloomberg
And Ethereum continues to outperform, topping $3700 once again today
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, ‘Greed’ is back (according to Morgan Stanley’s index)…
With equity valuations back at their recent highs…
Seasonals and technicals are no longer a tailwind…
So, what happens next?
Goldman suggests seeking hedges:
Equity implied vol has repriced on the post-NFP sell off … that said, levels are still at the lower end of YTD ranges (chart below)
Vanilla puts still offer convexity at reasonable breakevens … the desk also likes lookback options given the cheapness of the calls skew
US Factory Orders Tumbled In June By The Most Since COVID
MONDAY, AUG 04, 2025 – 10:07 AM
After surging 8.3% higher in May (amid tariff front-running and Boeing orders), US Factory orders tumbled 4.8% in June (as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Last month’s tariff-front-running surge up 8.3% is the second biggest monthly jump in 69 years.
June’s follow-on decline is the biggest MoM drop since the COVID lockdowns as non-defense aircraft orders slowed…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Orders (ex Transports) rose 0.4% MoM (the second monthly rise in a row)…
Source: Bloomberg
Are these headline numbers bad enough to fire the head of the Census Bureau?
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES/DATA
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM..
KING NEWS
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
THIS IS GOOD!
‘No One Is Above The Law’: Jack Smith Under Investigation Over Hatch Act Violations
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025 – 10:45 PM
The Office of Special Counsel (OSC) has launched an investigation into Jack Smith, a DOJ lawyer who led two criminal investigations into President Donald Trump during the Biden administration – one, into Trump’s handling of classified documents, and the other, which sought to prove that Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021 were an attempt to overturn the 2020 election. Both cases were ultimately tossed.
According to an email reviewed by the NY Post, Smith is being investigated by the Hatch Act Unit, which enforces a law that restricts government employees from engaging in political activities. The email was written by Senior Counsel Charles Baldis at OSC.
“I appreciate the Office of Special Counsel taking this seriously and launching an investigation into Jack Smith’s conduct. No one is above the law,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK) said in a statement to The Post. “Jack Smith’s actions were clearly driven to hurt President Trump’s election, and Smith should be held fully accountable.”
OSC launched the investigation following a letter from Cotton which accused Smith of taking blatantly political actions to undermine President Trump during his 2024 White House run.
Smith notably resigned from his post as Special Counsel in January, after President Trump’s inauguration.
Smith’s actions as prosecutor have been widely criticized by Republicans who saw the prosecutions as an effort to weaponize the justice system against Trump and hobble his election chances in 2024.
In his letter to OSC, Cotton explains how Smith’s actions undermined Trump’s political efforts.
“Jack Smith’s legal actions were nothing more than a tool for the Biden and Harris campaigns. This isn’t just unethical, it is very likely illegal campaign activity from a public office,” Cotton said.
“Many of Smith’s legal actions seem to have no rationale except for an attempt to affect the 2024 election results – actions that would violate federal law.”
“These actions were not standard, necessary, or justified,” Cotton wrote. “They were the actions of a political actor masquerading as a public official.”
Smith, meanwhile, has been mum on the allegations – though he has maintained that during his time as Special Counsel he followed legal protocols and was untainted by political influence (lol).
END
THIS IS GOOD!
Former FBI Director Wray Hit With Criminal Referral for Lying To Congress
Former FBI Director Christopher Wray is now facing a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, thanks to a new filing from the Oversight Project—a D.C.-based watchdog group. The group is accusing Wray of lying to Congress and obstructing not one, but two investigations into explosive FBI misconduct.
At the heart of the allegations: the FBI’s role in crafting a now-infamous memo that targeted Catholic Americans as potential domestic threats, and the agency’s apparent efforts to bury an investigation into a Chinese mail-in ballot scheme. These aren’t minor missteps—they’re serious accusations that strike at the core of the bureau’s credibility.
Oversight Project President Mike Howell told Fox News Digital that the criminal referral zeroes in on two specific instances where Wray may have misled Congress—his testimony about the infamous “Richmond memo” that exposed anti-Catholic bias inside the FBI’s Virginia field office, and his comments on a Chinese scheme to distribute fraudulent driver’s licenses ahead of the 2020 election.
Back in July 2023, Wray appeared before the House Judiciary Committee and downplayed the FBI’s memo that outrageously flagged traditional Catholics as possible domestic extremists. That memo, which came out of the Richmond field office, caused national outrage—and for good reason. But according to Howell, Wray’s testimony may not have been just misleading—it may have crossed the line into criminal territory.
“Well, what I can tell you is you’re referring to the Richmond product, which is a single product by a single field office, which as soon as I found out about it, I was aghast and ordered it withdrawn and removed from FBI systems,” Wray said in his testimony—which the Oversight Project says is false, or misleading at best.
Rep. Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., pressed Wray on the Richmond memo and so-called “Trump questionnaire,” which was circulated at the FBI and asked about allegiance to the president and whether agents had attended any protests or rallies associated with the Jan. 6 Capitol Breach.
“We keep hearing about these ‘isolated examples’ whether it’s Richmond Catholics, this [questionnaire] — isn’t it a pattern?” Tiffany asked.
The Oversight Project pointed to Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Charles Grassley’s opening remarks from a June hearing on Biden-era “cover-ups,” in which Grassley said the Richmond memo “used the shoddy research of the radical Southern Poverty Law Center to accuse traditional Catholics of being violent extremists.”
“Based on records I released the other week, there wasn’t just one FBI document that used biased anti-Catholic sources, but over a dozen,” Grassley said. The referral also notes that this remark by Grassley belies Wray’s testimony suggesting a one-off incident.
“And more FBI field offices were involved than we’d been led to believe,” Grassley, R-Iowa, said.
A second Richmond memo similar to the first that went unreleased following the backlash was part of a partially redacted series of documents Grassley’s committee transmitted to FBI Director Kash Patel in June. It stated that the bureau “assesses RMVE (Racially Motivated Violent Extremism) interest in RTC (Radical Traditional Catholic) ideology is likely to increase … in the run-up to the [2024] general election cycle.”
In a separate statement, the Oversight Project blasted Wray’s congressional testimony as misleading, pointing out that he “failed to reveal the scope of the memo’s production and dissemination” and “failed to reveal the existence of a second, draft product on the same topic intended for external distribution to the whole FBI.” That draft memo, they noted, “was intended for distribution as a Strategic Perspective Executive Analytic Report (‘SPEAR’). It was clearly a separate product.”
According to the Oversight Project, Wray’s statements may have crossed legal lines, specifically alleging violations such as obstruction of congressional proceedings, perjury, and making false statements.
Fox News Digital reached out to a phone number connected to Wray but, unsurprisingly, received no response.
END
HILARIOUS
/PROBABLY WILL BE GIVEN A RATE CUT WHICH IS WHAT HE ALWAYS WANTED
Trump Re-Rages At “RIGGED” Jobs Report
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 09:22 AM
President Trump is not done yet with his discussion of the BLS data: (via TruthSocial)
Last weeks Job’s Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged.
That’s why, in both cases, there was massive, record setting revisions, in favor of the Radical Left Democrats.
Those big adjustments were made to cover up, and level out, the FAKE political numbers that were CONCOCTED in order to make a great Republican Success look less stellar!!!
I will pick an exceptional replacement.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAGA!
Something is certainly ‘off’ with the measurements if there have been 25 significant downward revisions in the last 31 months… and every month since Trump was inaugurated…
Of course, the great irony in all of this is that the market is giving Trump exactly what he wanted… a rate-cut….
Source: Bloomberg
September is now pricing at over 90% odds of a cut and The Fed hates to surprise the market. So either FedSpeak will talk down the labor data as an outlier (transitory) or they are going to really struggle to apolitically NOT cut next time they meet.
END
Texas Governor Threatens To Expel Democrats Who Fled State To Block GOP Redistricting Vote
Monday, Aug 04, 2025 – 10:00 AM
Absconding to — where else — Chicago, Democratic members of the Texas House of Representatives fled the state on Sunday to break a quorum and prevent a vote on a redistricting plan that promises to boost the GOP’s share of seats in the US House of Representatives by five. In response, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to remove them from office, replace them, and pursue felony charges against them, using extradition powers if need be.
Their choice of exile location is positively drenched in hypocrisy, as Illinois arguably has the worst gerrymandering in America — to Democrats’ benefit, of course. In 2024, Democrats won 53% of the popular vote in Illinois House races, but took 82% of the seats (14 out of 17).
A quorum is the minimum number of lawmakers present in order to conduct legislative business – a tactic they’ve used twice before in the 22 years since Republicans have controlled all of Texas state government (efforts which ultimately failed).
The Democrats plan to stay away for two weeks to run the clock on a special legislative session called by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in order to draw the new map.
By state law, the Texas House can only conduct business when two-thirds of its 150 members are present, meaning at least 51 of the state’s 62 Democrats will stay away. So far, 57 have fled the state, according to State Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D), with members fleeing to Chicago, Boston and New York. All plan to remain out of the state until Aug. 19, when the special session concludes.
“Our goal right now is to kill this session,” said Rosenthal.
Abbott said if the Democrats don’t return by 3pm on Monday, he will invoke a Texas attorney general opinion and “remove the missing Democrats from membership in the Texas House,” and then pick their successors under power granted in the state constitution. Upping the ante, Abbott said many of the fleeing Democrats may have committed felonies, as they’re soliciting donations to cover fines they face under Texas House rules — arguing that they risk bribery charges for accepting money “to assist in the violation of legislative duties.” To bring them to justice, he said “I will use my full extradition authority to demand the return to Texas of any potential out-of-state felons.”Texas AG Ken Paxton (R), meanwhile, has threatened to arrest lawmakers who break quorum, though he won’t have jurisdiction over them outside of the state.
The governor of gerrymandered Illinois is lecturing about gerrymandering and praising obstructionist TX Democrats who fled their state, and his state is now harboring:
Democrats dismissed the threats. “As the Texas Supreme Court has acknowledged, it is the right of legislators to deny quorum,” State Rep. Chris Turner told the Dallas Morning News. “And as Governor Abbott should know, we also have separation of powers in this country.”
“Today this corruption ends,” said state Rep. Gene Wu, chairman of the Democratic caucus in his chamber, at a Chicago presser at a county Democratic Party office attended by other Texas Democrats and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
“This is not a decision we make lightly, but it is one we make with absolute moral clarity. Governor Abbott…is using an intentionally racist map to steal the voices of millions of Black and Latino Texans, all to execute a corrupt political deal. Apathy is complicity, and we will not be complicit in the silencing of hard-working communities who have spent decades fighting for the power that Trump wants to steal.”
Wu also accused Gov. Greg Abbott of making “hostages” out of the victims of last month’s terrible floods in Kerrville, since the voting on the redistricting initiative was placed ahead of handling bills that would deliver financial aid to affected communities. The map has been swiftly advancing during the special legislative session that Abbott convened in July to handle the redistricting and flood response, among many other issues.
Republican leaders say the new map is a necessary correction, noting that the state’s population growth has warranted mid-decade changes. But Democrats contend the proposal is a blatant partisan power grab, part of a broader Republican effort in several states to shore up congressional majorities before what is expected to be a volatile midterm season.
Texas Republicans currently control 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats; the new map would likely give them 30, all of which Mr. Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. The GOP holds a narrow 219-212 majority in the U.S. House, with four vacancies, and party leaders see Texas as central to preserving their legislative agenda.
Before the map was unveiled, President Trump said he favored “a very simple redrawing” that would give Republicans more seats. “We pick up five seats [in Texas] but we have a couple other states where we’ll pick up seats also,” he said last month.
Texas state Representative Todd Hunter, a Republican and sponsor of the legislation, called the proposal “a good plan for Texas” and said, “The primary changes … are focused on five districts for partisan purposes.”
DNC Chair Ken Martin – of the party that continually floats packing the Supreme Court when they don’t get their way – said, “Republicans thought they could just rig the maps and change the rules without the American people taking notice. They were dead wrong.”
Former Attorney General Eric Holder said Sunday on ABC that Democrats might “have to do things that perhaps in the past I would not have supported” in response to the Texas plan.
“I think we need to respond in kind,” said Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas, and chair of the Democratic Governors Association.
The new Texas map, unveiled last week under pressure from Trump and Abbott, was approved by a legislative committee on Saturday and was expected to reach the House floor on Tuesday.
In a separate development that could have profound implications for redistricting battles across America, the US Supreme Court last week said it will consider the constitutionality of redistricting that’s intentionally aimed at creating “majority-minority districts” with the goal securing power for blacks and Hispanics. In that Louisiana case filed by self-described “non-African American voters,” claiming a violation of the Equal Protection Clause, the high court said it will examine whether that kind of redistricting violates the 14th or 15th Amendments to the US Constitution.
In April 2024, a federal panel of judges in the US District Court for the Western District of Louisiana ruled that purposefully creating a majority-black district was “an impermissible racial gerrymander in violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.” The 15th Amendment bars governments from denying or abridgingthe right to vote based on race or color.
END
To Kill An Operation Mockingbird: Tulsi Goes To War With The CIA’s Propaganda Yob
Former Democratic Party presidential hopeful and current Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is giving the CIA an enema, and she’s putting the hose where it is most needed: in the sketchy, unofficial offices of Operation Mockingbird, the CIA’s not-so-secret department dedicated to propaganda.
The CIA has been bribing/threatening/installing journalists to do their bidding since the beginning of the Cold War. It is believed they had/have roughly 400 journalists, news reporters, and publishers throughout the world, writing what the CIA tells them to write.
In the mid-1970s, Operation Mockingbird was exposed by the Church Committee, led by Senator Frank Church (D-Idaho). The committee found that the CIA, the FBI, the NSA, and various other alphabet agencies were illegally bugging, wiretapping, and harassing people, even Americans, the most notable of whom was Martin Luther King, Jr.
The Church Committee slapped the CIA on the wrist and told them to end Operation Mockingbird, but, exasperatingly, the committee didn’t provide any oversight to make sure that Mockingbird was dead. According to the Church Committee Report on Foreign and Military Intelligence of 1976 (page 455), Mockingbird thrives to this day.
Watch Robert Kennedy, Jr. explain how some of the fake news crims, including Rolling Stone and Vox, are nothing more than CIA-run rumor mills.
So that leads us to where we are now.
Tulsi Gabbard believes Operation Mockingbird isn’t merely still alive and kicking, but that it’s being used to slander President Trump. 9In my opinion, it is also being used to spread globalist codswallop.) Even better, Gabbard is dedicated to tearing it down.
SCARY: Tulsi Gabbard CONFIRMS That ‘Operation Mockingbird’ is STILL Ongoing inside the CIA and she is actively trying to Shut it Down.
Tulsi says Deep State intel agents are still actively colluding with left-wing media outlets to attack President Trump from within:
What you’re about to see is not comedy. It’s tragically cringeworthy propaganda being progenerated by a globalist shill who needs to be drummed out of the comedy community forever.
Welcome to late-night brainwashing, courtesy of, I believe, Operation Mockingbird:
Watch former CIA Director John Brennan squirm like a worm under the magnifying glass of the Trump administration’s take-down of swamp wigglers like himself:
🚨BREAKING: Former CIA Director John Brennan confirmed @DNIGabbard's claim that Operation Mockingbird remains active.
DNI Gabbard claims she is dedicated to ending the unofficial “Operation Mockingbird.” I can’t be more giddy.
I suspect there are no hallway signs at the Pentagon stating “Operation Mockingbird Offices This Way,” and thus stabbing the problem in its heart may prove difficult.
Operation Mockingbird is likely why your hirsute thing-in-law believes Trump said to take “horse pills” to beat COVID, which came from a bat salad, and so many other lies we’ve seen pushed by the media.
I believe the darker threat isn’t fake news, but the seemingly unquenchable thirst for more of the same. Killing Operation Mockingbird is integral, but teaching leftoids they’ve been lied to for decades is the true challenge.
Watch this video, and the meaning of the name “Operation Mockingbird” will become terrifyingly clear:
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTONG
Gold Signals War – Martin Armstrong Warns Of “Panic Cycle In 2026”
Less than two weeks ago, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned his “Socrates” predictive computer program showed a “100% Chance of Nuclear War.”
Armstrong says, “Oh, yeah! You look at gold, and you see what is happening...”
“Oil is pointing more towards September. . . . Gold keeps trying to get through the highs. This is not the major high. Hate to tell you, it’s not. Gold is showing, Up.
Every market I look at, it’s the same thing.
We have a panic cycle, and it’s not just for war in 2026.
Go to our site and look at the euro, and there is a panic cycle for 2026. It’s everywhere.
Why the computer has been correct is you cannot forecast any market in isolation. You can’t. It’s all connected.”
Armstrong says you won’t have to wait until 2026 for his “Panic Cycle” to begin.
His computer has long pointed to August 18, 2025, and that is about two short weeks away. Armstrong says,
“Honestly, this is turning into a grade school fight. I don’t know what Trump expects. He’s hurling insult after insult, and there is no possibility of peace anymore.
It’s one thing to do tariffs and sanctions against Russia. Now, he is saying we are going to put sanctions on anybody that even deals with Russia.
This is economic war. It’s as simple as that. . .. We don’t even have anyone to negotiate on behalf of the West. It’s dead, completely dead.”
Armstrong thinks neocons have built a wall around President Trump so nobody with different advice regarding NOT starting a nuke war can get through.
Is Martin Armstrong being blocked by the neocons surrounding President Trump now? Armstrong says, “I believe so…”
” I even wrote to AG Pam Bondi, and I did not get a response. I have written to presidents and heads of state, and I get responses. Not this time. . .. This is escalating, and he (Trump) is not in a good position. I don’t know what the hell he is doing. He seems to have crossed to the other side.”
There is much more in the 48-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, who is still giving a red alert for a very destructive nuclear war coming soon for 8.2.25.
rises 11% after the e-commerce firm posted second quarter profit that sailed past estimates.
harveyorganblog.com 
